Jacksonville/Cincinnati 1:00: Jaguars playing good ball. They have the #1 scoring defense in the league, have a run game with Tuten, and QB Lawrence playing pretty well. Lawrence should get locked in against a Cincinnati secondary that all of sudden has been hit with injuries. Hate going against red hot Joe Burrow but Jaguars well rounded across the board defensively. And Jacksonville a sweet 8-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS conference win. Jacksonville the call. 

Steelers/Browns 8:15: Browns' fans now love DeShaun Watson. All it took was two straight wins, including a last-minute TD pass. The heart of the former National Champion (Clemson) and three-time Pro Bowler is reemerging as his physical ailments (Achilles) seem distant. He's established rhythm with TE Fannin Jr., Boston and soon to be with Jeudy. Defensively, Browns improving every week and a matter of time before Verse breaks out as a sack threat. Steelers looked great last week but they've struggled in Cleveland their last 4 visits. And they're 1-6 ATS over .500 opponent off a SU dog win. They're also just 2-5 as a road favorite on Thursdays. Browns sport a 4-0 Thursday night mark, and they're 7-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Browns the call. 

Chargers/Patriots 8:15: Patriots turned in quite a season under Vrabel. QB Maye flourishing in Josh McDaniels' system and they're winning games. I'm not sleeping on the Chargers though. They're 2-0 at New England since 2023, and they're 12-4 ATS as a dog vs non-division opponents under Harbaugh. Sure, the Chargers' offensive line is ravaged with multiple starters throughout the season. Herbert has been sacked 54 times in 16 games. Fortunately, he has more surrounding skill player help this season. Last season, it was just McConkey. This season, Allen, TE Gadsden, and the development of Johnston has helped tremendously with crisp routes. And the run game has been solid with Vidal and rookie Hampton. Patriots' defense 22nd sacks relying on LBs Chaissm and Landry for a bulk of them (16). Defensively, I like the Chargers' defense under DC Minter with playmakers - Derwin James, Perryman and Henley. Maye has been sacked 47 times in 17 games and it's his first playoff game. I'll go with underrated QB Herbert to notch his first playoff win. 

Rams/Falcons 8:15: Atlanta appears to be closing season strong. But beware of smoke and mirrors. The teams they beat are both on a losing free fall - TB and Arizona. They're now running into a pissed off Rams team that narrowly lost to top tier team - Seattle. LA sports the #1 offense in the NFL and McVay should draw circles around Raheem Morris' brain. Morris a poor 3-15 as a home dog. Falcons 2-5 ATS as a MNF dog. Rams' Stafford a sweet 6-1 ATS after the Rams surrendered more than 31 points. Rams the call. 

Raiders/Texans 4:25: Bad matchup. Raiders looking for the top pick in the draft while the Texans are prepping for playoffs. Texans' defense nasty #1 in Total Yards and Points Allowed. They have a vicious front line that doesn't need to blitz to sack QBs with bookends Anderson and Hunter. Moreover, a ball hawking secondary and that doesn't bode well for interception king - Geno Smith, who should be back under center. Raiders' offensive line just not getting it done - allowing sacks and poor run blocking. Texans' offense starting to gel as the receiving corps getting healthy and run game clicking behind improving offensive line. We'll lay the wood here. 

Chargers/Chiefs 1:00: Chargers off a short week but lots to play for. They can separate themselves from KC with a win by inching themselves to WC spot. Harbaugh a sweet 11-1 ATS off a non-division foe vs opponent off back-to-back losses. And he's 9-3 ATS vs less than .500 foes. Hard to believe the Chiefs are a game below .500 this late in the season; after all, that's unprecedented in the Mahomes era. But dropped passes, questionable coaching decisions, and penalties on both sides of the ball hurting them. And with Mahomes missing half of his offensive line, it won't get any easier against one of the top defenses in the NFL. KC just 2-10 ATS at home in a division game off a non-division opponent. Chargers the call. 

Seahawks/Falcons 1:00: Falcons will occasionally tease you into believing they're a legitimate threat in the NFC South as exhibited in September and October with upsets of Minnesota and Buffalo. And then when you start believing, Raheem Morris will bleed you dry. Morris is now 3-13 ATS as a home dog. Seattle, on the other hand, a serious contender in the NFC - on an 8-2 ATS tear and 5-1 on the road. They have the #1 rush defense in the NFL and 3rd in scoring allowed. Cousins won have top target London (out) to throw to. Seattle offense cooking and we're laying the wood. 

Raiders/Chargers 4:25: Chargers off a rare blowout loss. They had a week to correct pass protection issues along offensive line. We'll look for Herbert and company to get it together here vs a tired Raiders' defense which is continually stressed with a severe lack of production from their offense. Raiders' offensive line issues have gotten extreme. OC Kelly gone as a result. It will be hard for a quick fix with limited talent at wide receivers, patchwork offensive line, and a mediocre QB. Chargers' defense should step up their game here. Harbaugh historically puts away less than .500 teams. Chargers should sweep series with authority. 

Eagles/Cowboys 4:25: Eagles' offense not the same under OC Patullo. But Vic Fangio's defense hitting stride. A masterful performance from the Eagles' defense last week shutting down one of the most prolific scoring offenses in the league. When Fangio has those healthy Georgia alums: Davis, Carter, Dean, Nolan Smith all playing together, it's lights out. And on the back end, CB Mitchell starting to play like a #1 draft pick now. Dallas offense prolific, but won't bet against Fangio scheming, considering the September 4th underachieving. And although Dallas defense improving with new mid-season additions, they're still not at a high tier level to stop the high caliber talent the Eagles possess. Philly the call. 

Bears/Vikings 1:00: Vikings won the first game in this series in a dramatic come from behind win. It was QB McCarthy's first start and on the road. He's a bit more seasoned now and has a good mentor in O'Connell. Bears' QB Williams having a good year under first year HC Ben Johnson. What separates these teams is defense. Although Minnesota's defense not nearly as dominant as last year's, still better than Chicago's. Bears defense allowing 6.6 YPP (32nd) and 27.4 PPG (28th). We'll grab Minnesota. 

Browns/Jets 1:00: Always cautious when labeling Browns a Top Play but this may warrant one. Cleveland is coming off a bye week and some key components along the offensive line have gotten healthy. That doesn't bode well against a Jets' defense that just traded away two of their top defensive players - Q Williams/Gardner. Their defense sits in the bottom tier of the NFL in sacks and scoring. Consequently, Brownies should be able to get their run game going with hard running RB Judkins. And QB Gabriel should have his vertical threat Cedric Tillman back. Browns defense will need to stay solid. We'll go with them!

Chargers/Titans 1:00: Hate to lay double digits at this point in the season, but the disparity in team quality is glaring. After weeks of struggling with injuries - specifically at their offensive tackles, the Chargers got their mojo back on the 23rd vs Minnesota. Herbert has a near full arsenal of receivers and facing a bottom tier defense without their top lineman - Jeffrey Simmons. That spells big trouble for Tennessee. Moreover, the Titans rank dead last in scoring offense and face a physical and stingy Chargers' defense. Harbaugh is 11-1 ATS off non-division vs an opponent off back to back SU losses. Chargers the call. 

Packers/Steelers 8:20: Both defenses have their weaknesses and a pair of pretty good quarterbacks should find ways to exploit them tonight. Pittsburgh's Rodgers has a healthy receiving corps with Metcalf, Austin, TE Smith and RB Warren. GB defense is dead last in the NFL in completion percentage allowed. On the other hand, Jordan Love will finally have his vertical threat - Christian Watson - back in the fray to join a pretty talented receiving corps and versatile RB Jacobs. Last Thursday, Steelers' defense allowed the worst run offense in the league to run roughshod on them. And well traveled Flacco, who was on Cincinnati for a week, lit the secondary up like a torch. Steelers have the 31st pass defense in the league. We'll look for this one to go "over". 

49ers/Texans 1:00: Shanahan doing his best coaching job in years. He's holding together a team that's been devastated by injuries yet has them at the top of the NFC West (5-2). Mac Jones doing a solid job in place of Purdy. He still has weapons with McCaffrey, Kittle and Jennings. The offensive line holding up well. Defensively, DC Saleh continues to work magic with second tier players. Houston, however, has an offense that just can't get rolling under first year OC Nik Caley. Stroud is constantly under duress, limited run game behind an offensive line that's not connected. Stroud has limited weaponry with Collins, Kirk and Dell (IR) on the rack. Defensively is where the Texans thrive but Shanahan should find a way once again to utilize his offensive arsenal. 49ers are 3-1 on the road and Shanahan sports a 9-2 ATS mark as a road dog vs an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. SF the call. 

Packers/Cardinals 4:25: Most likely, veteran QB Brissett will get the start today as Murray (foot) sits. And that is fine. Brissett is a quality backup with good weapons: TE McBride, WR Harrison Jr., Zay Jones (questionable but should go). Cardinals have been competitive in every game this season. Gannon is always dangerous as a dog including 11-1 ATS as a dog in the second of back-to-back non-division games. GB, on an 0-3 ATS slide, has yet to win a game on the road. We'll look for the Cardinals to hang around. 

Lions/Chiefs 8:20: Lots of noise on writing off the Chiefs. Last Monday, their defense was uncharacteristically poor at crucial times of the game; moreover, Mahomes rarely throws interception (pic six) in the red zone.  Chiefs sitting at 2-3 while the Lions are rolling with 4 straight wins. But I won't underestimate the heart of a champion. Mahomes and Reid are still an amazing 20-7 in primetime games and injuries haven't accrued. On the other hand, Detroit's secondary is ravaged with injuries and that won't bode well against Mahomes' nearly full arsenal of receivers. And sure, the Lions' offense got its rhythm back but the KC defense, led by arguably the greatest DC ever, still has a plethora of talent on it, and they have their pride. Grab the Chiefs here. 

Texans/Jaguars 1:00: Houston has had a few rough outings against some pretty good teams. We'll look for them to get back on track here. Texans' HC Ryans has made life not great for QB Lawrence. In eight starts, Lawrence sports a poor 39 QBR. The Texans are 3-1 SU last 4 in this series. And Ryans is 9-1 ATS as a dog when both teams are off non-division games. He's also 6-0 ATS as a road dog of less than 10 points off a SU favorite loss. We'll grab the Texans here. 

49ers/Saints 1:00: 49ers' plethora of injuries has shrunk this line to less than a FG. I'm fine with that. Mac Jones, mentored under Shanahan, should settle in against a Brandon Staley led Saints' defense. Jones may not have TE Kittle, WR Aiyuk to go to; however, Pearsall, TE Tonges and RB McCaffrey are fine to get it done. Defensively, DC Saleh is back in SF to reclaim another dominant defense he achieved with them a few years back. Saints' offense has some weaponry but limited with QB Rattler operating it. The cross country travel shouldn't be a problem this early in the season. Shanahan a sweet 17-4 ATS off a division opponent vs opponent off a loss. SF the call. 

Ravens/Bills 8:20: Ravens eager to avenge their devastating playoff loss and should deliver. Hard to find a weakness on Baltimore. The offensive line continues to progress, Derrick Henry is healthy, and Lamar Jackson has a full arsenal of receivers to go to (except TE Likely out). Defensively, they invested heavily in bolstering their secondary over the past year, and it is now one of the deepest and best in the NFL. And their front 7 remains solid with Roquan Smith manning the middle. On the other hand, Bills dealing with secondary injuries and that should be problematic here. And keep in mind that HC Harbaugh is a sweet 74-49-8 ATS on the road. Ravens a better overall team at this juncture and should deliver. 

Chiefs/Eagles 6:30: Since that 2022 Super Bowl, addition of Barkley gives a significant boost to the Eagles. Then again, Chiefs' defense went from mid level (16th) in 2022 to 4th in 2024. Additions like DE Karlaftis and C McDuffie upgraded an already strong defensive nucleus. What separates the teams this season, is the savviness of the key veterans who already control Super Bowl rings. Mahomes will find a way to extend plays and integrate his fully loaded skill arsenal players into the game plan. I do realize that Eagles' DC Vic Fangio is a legendary builder of great defenses, but he is 0-8 SU against Mahomes. And let's not forget about DC Spagnuolo. He controls 4 Super Bowl rings as a DC. Go back to 2008 when he was the architect of the NY Giants' defense that found a way to fluster Tom Brady and limit Randy Moss to put an end to the Patriots perfect season. Count on Spags, in a key moment of this game, to dial up a blitz or coverage scheme that Hurts has never seen before. Hurts had his moments of indecisiveness throughout this season. On the grandest of stages, I'll put my money on Spagnuolo, Mahomes, Reid, Kelsey, and the KC special teams to deliver like they've done so well in the past. 

Chargers/Texans 4:30: Both teams are solid and disruptive defensively; however, I believe the Chargers have the better balanced and more disciplined offense, which should ultimately decide the game. Now that JK Dobbins is healthy, the identity of Los Angeles (run the rock and play action frequently) is in full force. Houston, on the other hand, is in the bottom of the league in penalties, interceptions, fumbles. Moreover, Stroud has been sacked an average 3.2 times a game (30th). That doesn't bode well against the sack happy Chargers that also lead the league in points allowed. Chargers find ways to win by limiting mistakes and making plays and the right calls in critical situations. Houston not quite there yet. Chargers the call. 

Vikings/Lions 8:20: Stakes are high. Winner receives NFC #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Loser drops to wild card on the road to face either Rams, Bucs or Falcons. Lions snuck by the first game. Vikings cleaned up turnover problem since and functioning well on both sides of the ball. Vikings are fully loaded offensively with Jefferson, Addison, TE Hockenson, RB Aaron Jones and add Jalen Nailor to the mix. Darnold brimming with confidence and should be able to attack the back end of the Lions' defense that's been vulnerable most of the season (32nd in pass yards allowed). Vikings' defense has its issues too and Jeff Goff is as dangerous as they come at home vs heavy blitzing teams. As this game plays itself out, I look for O'Connell to make the right critical decisions and deliver. Vikings 12-4 ATS on the year including 4-0 ATS run. Vikings the call. 

Packers/Vikings 4:25: Playoff implications for both teams. Vikings fighting with Detroit for the top spot in the division and Green Bay jockeying for position to improve playoff seeding. Green Bay is looking to avenge earlier season loss when they were nearly run out of Green Bay in the first half before a strong second half comeback that just fell short. But Green Bay defense not at full strength and that's a concern. WLB Quay Walker plus C Alexander and Safety Evan Williams are out. Minnesota's QB Darnold has a wealth of talent at his disposal with Justin Jefferson, Addison, Aarron Jones and throw in a healthy TE Hockenson, can't see GB stopping them. On the other hand, QB Love won't have vertical threat Watson (knee) to go to. Vikings' defense still playing at an elite level and mostly healthy. We'll grab Minnesota here. 

Titans/Colts 1:00: A highly contested series in the AFC South here. Titans in a revenge mode from Week Six 20-17 loss. Titans now have a fighting chance without interception king - Will Levis. Mason Rudolph, who's actually 9-6-1 as a starter in his career with Pittsburgh and here in Tennessee, will get the nod. He should be able to utilize his pretty decent skill cast in a more disciplined way. And defensively, the Titans, which are #2 in yards allowed, won't be thrust into defending the goal line as often in quick change turnover mode - as Levis put them in so often. On the other hand, not confident in Colts' QB Richardson, who completes a meager 47% of his passes and regressed over the last few weeks. Titans 4-1 ATS last 5 at Indianapolis. Titans the call here. 

Dolphins/Texans 1:00: Texans getting by in their wins and comfortable atop the weak AFC South. Stroud has been sacked way too much, and defensively - defensive back Pitre (pec) is a big loss. Dolphins, meanwhile, have rallied around Tua. Tua has completed at least 70% of his passes in 7 straight games. Since the weather will be Dolphins' friendly (62 degrees), Hill, Waddle, TE Jonnu Smith and RB Achane should be too much for the Texans to contain. Texans 2-7 ATS in last 9 as a favorite against a less than .500 team. Miami 7-1 ATS after the Jets. And don't trust the Texans off a bye. Remember last year after their bye week, they got beaten outright by the lowly Carolina Panthers. Dolphins looking to hold on for their playoff lives should deliver. 

Bills/Rams 4:25: Projected a 50 point total and lines makers came in accurate. Bills have scored 30 or more points in six straight games. Rams' defense has its moments but remains inconsistent under DC Shula. Bills' offensive line is similar in strength to Philadelphia's. And a few weeks back, the Eagles ran roughshod (314 yards) over the Rams. Bills' offense every bit as potent. Defensively, Bills' defense could yield some points here. Stafford has Nacua and Kupp back in the fray, and he could have his old go-to big target TE Tyler Higbee (off IR) make a cameo. And RB Kyren Williams could have a solid game; after all, Bills' defense allows a generous 4.9 YPC (30th). McVay 13-1 O/U as a dog vs an opponent off a double digit SU win. "Over" the call. 

Chargers/Falcons 1:00: Analysis to follow...

Cardinals/Seahawks 4:25: Going to stay on the hot Cardinals. They've won four straight and coming off a bye. Unlike last season, when coming off a bye they were out of the playoff picture, they're atop the leader board of the division and Gannon is doing a nice job steering the ship. QB Murray is having a career season passing (69% completions/ 12 TD/3 INT) along with being a big part of the #5 rushing offense in the league and #2 in YPC. Seattle's defense has fallen off from the 3rd week and vulnerable here. TE McBride turning into a big time target and go-to guy. And Harrison Jr. is living up to his billing. Seattle offense is humming but passing too much and never a good thing for Geno Smith. Arizona defense primed to grab some interceptions here. Cardinals a sweet 5-0 ATS vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Arizona looking to finally beat Seattle after 5 failed attempts. This sixth meeting should be a charm. 

Ravens/Steelers 1:00: Steelers still not getting respect. They've won 7 of the last 8 in this series and this is, by far, the best Steelers' team over that span. Wilson has given the Steelers a deep ball game and the running game is cooking. Moreover, Steelers control the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. That's Steelers football! Meanwhile, the Ravens continue to struggle with that secondary coverage under new DC. Tomlin is 30-12 ATS vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins, including 12-2 vs their division. Steelers the call. 

Broncos/Chiefs 1:00: Chiefs coming into this one off a short week (MNF). Overall, their health is good, including Mahomes (ankle); however, Denver is more hungry to get back in the win column after a double-digit thrashing by Baltimore. Sean Payton is a sweet 20-9 SU / 22-7 ATS vs division opponents coming off a win, including 10-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points. We'll take the points. 

Chargers/Browns 1:00: Chargers have been solid vs losing teams and should deliver. They have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL with a ball hawking secondary and Bosa (hamstring) - listed as questionable - could aid in bolstering their sacks. Browns' QBs have been sacked more than any other QBs in the NFL at a rate of 4.6 per game. Winston does give the Browns life and the offensive line is getting healthier. However, defensively, Browns won't have their leading tackler Onusu-Koramoah (out) and starting MLB Hicks (Out). Harbaugh is all about establishing a run game and that doesn't bode well for Cleveland's run stop unit. QB Herbert found his range with McConkey last week. Browns' secondary won't have their top corner - Denzel Ward (out). Cleveland is coming off an emotional win last week but should come up short here. Stefanski a poor 2-10 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS win vs greater than .500 opponent. Weather should be seasonably warm (63 degrees game time) in Cleveland as well. Chargers the call. 

Bears/Commanders 4:25: Bears winning games with great defense; however, they have a few key cogs in the secondary out and that could be costly vs the #1 scoring offense in the NFL. Rover - Brisker and Nickel Back - Gordon are important as run stoppers in zone defense in addition to their solid coverage. With Washington QB Daniels (ribs) getting the green light to play, we'll look for the offense to keep clicking under OC Kingsbury. Defensively, Commanders not great but making progress weekly. Bears' offensive line has been shaky in spots allowing 3.3 sacks per game. And you know how much Dan Quinn loves exotic blitzes. Quinn is a sweet 15-4 ATS as a dog off a SU win. Commanders 7-0 ATS off double digit ATS win. We'll grab the more well balanced Commanders. 

Chiefs/49ers 4:25: No one makes better use of bye week than Andy Reid at a staggering 21-4 SU including 8-3 SU with KC. And he owns the 49ers' head man. Shannahan 0-7 SU as an assistant and head coach vs him. KC has their share of injuries but manage to resurrect careers of former guys like Smith-Schuster and RB Hunt. It's what they do. Statistically, numbers mediocre at best. Mahomes has thrown as many INTs as TDs. He won't win you lots of fantasy points but will find a way to win the football game. He's not always great, just great when he has to be. As for the defense, DC Spagnuolo dialing up the right formula early this season - #6 scoring defense in the league. We'll grab the Chiefs again. 

Jets/Vikings 9:30: This one is in London on the sport turf field of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Rain in the forecast and no field protection from the elements. Total driven down to a reachable level. Vikings' defense has been strong under DC Flores. He likes to blitz 41% of the time (2nd only to Denver) and in the process yields more passing yards than any other team. Teams haven't been able to cash in on explosive plays. Look for seasoned veteran Aaron Rodgers to dissect man coverage with Wilson, Lazard and Mike Williams - all with top end speed. And TE Conklin has been a reliable move-the-chain target, and Breece Hall a solid check down. On the other hand, brilliant offensive mind of Kevin O'Connell has his guy in QB Darnold who is distributing the ball well to his talented receiving corps, including uncoverable Justin Jefferson. Jets 12-1 O/U as a road dog of less than 7 points vs a .666 or greater opponent. "Over" the call. 

Commanders/Cardinals 4:05: These two teams not the usual slothing offenses of yesteryear. Former Arizona HC Kingsbury doing a great job mentoring #! pick Jayden Daniels. He finally got a guy who can utilize the weaponry - McLaurin, Noah Brown, McCaffrey, and resurrecting career of former Pro Bowl TE Zach Ertz. Daniels completing an astonishing 80% of his passes without an interception. Arizona defense - middle of the road at best. And the big news is they got a run game in Brian Robinson Jr. Another testament to a solid offensive line. On the other hand, Arizona OC Petzing doing a decent job fueling the #4 scoring offense. Murray has found his range with #1 pick Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. And, like Washington, Arizona sound in running the rock - Conner. Both defenses struggling in sacking the QB and stopping the run. These teams are a combined 4-2 O/U on the season and we'll stay on the "over" here. 

Chargers/Steelers 1:00: Harbaugh putting his stamp on the Chargers early. Harbaugh coached teams have a strong run game and play strong defense. Chargers #2 in the NFL running the football and #2 defensively in yards allowed. Tomblin takes a similar approach. Steelers' ground game in the mid-range tier and defensively keeping teams out of the end zone (allowing 8 PPG). Today, Pittsburgh enters with a thin line due to injuries. RT Fautanu and G Seumato out. Consequently, look for the Chargers' defense to win the line of scrimmage battle. On the other hand, QB Herbert (ankle) should be good to go. RB Dobbins having a resurgence in his career. Chargers should do enough to get er done. Harbaugh a strong 32-13 ATS in his NFL coaching career vs non-division opponents, including 8-2 ATS as a dog. Chargers the call. 

Raiders/Ravens 1:00: Last week, Raiders had trouble establishing the run (3.2 YPC); consequently, Chargers recovered 2 fumbles and teed off on Minshew (4 sacks), INT. It will not get easier against another strong defense. Ravens had a few extra rest and prep days to stew over close loss to KC. Ravens' offense should be much better this week as they look to get RB Henry going. QB Jackson has a new go-to target in TE matchup nightmare Likely. Ravens 5-0 ATS off a Thursday Night game. Baltimore cruises. 

Rams/Lions 8:20: Road team in this series covered last 3. Rams held their own in last year's playoff game, nearly getting the SU win on a 24-23 defeat. This season, Rams' offense is loaded with a healthy Kupp, NFL Offensive Rookie of Year - Nacua, bolstered offensive line, 1100+ rusher Kyren Williams, and a healthy Matt Stafford. Stafford is 6-1 ATS in season opening games. McVay is 6-1 SU/ATS in season openers. As for the defense, new DC Shula has youth so there can be growing pains. With Aaron Donald (retired) gone, transition should not be too difficult. Florida State high draft choices Fiske and edge rusher phenom Verse should impact immediately. Detroit is loaded and hungry but overvalued and we'll grab the points.

49ers/Chiefs 6:30: At first glance, after 49ers and Chiefs won their respective games in the championship round, I expected KC to be a 1' or even 2-point favorite in this matchup; after all, KC, after an underachieving regular season with numerous wide receiver mishaps, drops, offensive line holding penalties, cleaned their game up when it really counted - playoffs. SF, on the other hand, ravaged through regular season opponents, for the most part but struggled at times during the playoffs. Therefore, Chiefs should be that slight favorite after second and third glances. KC Spagnuolo not only had KC playing at a high level during the regular season (2nd in points allowed at 17.3 PPG) but kept them playing at a high level during the playoffs, including a virtuoso performance against Baltimore, as I predicted. Look for Spagnuolo to dial up the confusion against SF's Brock Purdy, who is reduced to mediocrity facing zone coverage - which KC doesn't show much but could Sunday. KC secondary has been consistently strong with C Sneed and company. And disruptive forces Chris Jones and Karlaftis have gotten it done rushing the QB and helping against the run. Sure, McCaffery and company will get their yards, but Bolton and, now healthy, Gay make plays when needed. Offensively, Pacheco should get the run game generated against an underachieving run-stop-unit that promises to be better tonight. They haven't fulfilled that promise the last two playoff games and I'm not buying it tonight vs a solid KC offense that proved G Allegretti could step in for All Pro Thuney without missing a beat. And then there is Mahomes - 3-0 vs SF and on the precipice of history as one of 4 other QBs with 3 Super Bowl wins. In addition to Kelce and Rice, Moore is off the IR and should contribute to his success. Chiefs the call.  

Chiefs/Ravens 3:00: Ravens surely seem like world beaters now. I was on them last week vs Houston but I'm fading them here. Sure, KC offense not as explosive as it was the past few years but an improved defense has created a good balance. Like I said last week when I was on KC (+2') vs Buffalo, Spagnuolo does a nice job scheming and preparing his unit. He'll find a way to limit Lamar Jackon's effectiveness.  Offensively, KC won't have their G Thuney (pec) but his replacement - Allegretti has seen plenty of action in the trenches for KC and well respected among his peers. And Pacheco is good to go. As for Mahomes, few teams limit him this time of year; after all, he's 13-3 as a playoff starter. His teammates seem to rally around him in big games as exhibited by Rice two weeks ago and even Valdes-Scantling last week. And he's 3-1 vs Lamar Jackson. Jackson will be this year's MVP but as Ric Flair said, "To be the man, you got to beat the man." I'll side with Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Bucs/Lions 3:00: This time of year, I like teams that are road strong. TB has been that team. They're 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, and that includes trips to current playoff battling Green Bay, San Francisco, Houston and Buffalo. TB has been dismissed by lots of pundits this year, but the Buccaneers believe in themselves. Bucs and Mayfield do their best as a dog. TB has covered 9 of their last 12 dog roles. And guess who's 3-0 ATS in the playoffs? Yes, Baker Mayfield. Goff sports a 2-4 ATS mark in the same role. Sure, Detroit worked TB in Florida in Week Six 20-6. Buccaneers no joke seeking same season revenge against teams above .500 at 8-1 ATS. Bucs' Bowles will be well prepared to bracket St. Brown and dial up a combination of blitzes. Detroit definitely a tough out but they've given up leads throughout Campbell's tenure. And TB OC Canales has done a fine job pushing the right buttons for Mayfield. We'll take the points.

Rams/Lions 8:15: Love the enthusiasm and high energy Campbell and his men bring to the field; however, that very energy and enthusiasm may be their downfall here. Campbell has made many an aggressive play calls, including fake punts and 4th down go-for-it plays. Some worked, some didn't. In a big game like this, it could come back to bite him and his Lions in the rear. McVay is shrewd Super Bowl winning coach who has his men in the thick of things a lot quicker than any of the pundits would have thought. Since the Rams bye week, they're on a 7-1 SU tear including an OT loss at AFC Top Seed Baltimore. The Rams' offensive line has improved dramatically, protecting Stafford and opening holes for RB Keyren Williams (1350 combined rush and receiving yards). Rookie WR Nacua has been amazing and Kupp is nearing his top form. Lions' TE LaPorta laboring with sprained knee. And the Lions' defense has shown vulnerability in the secondary frequently. We'll grab the points with the Rams. 

Jaguars/Titans 1:00: On the surface, it appears that the Titans are down and out before this game even starts. Jacksonville will need this game to claim control of the AFC South en route to the playoffs while the beat-up Titans will be an afterthought. Titans, however, still have players looking to add bonuses or improve market value for next year. Hopkins, Henry and Burks, to name a few, give QB Tannehill viable weaponry against a Jaguar defense that allows 245 YPG through the air and have trouble sacking (25th) the QB. On the other hand, Jaguars' QB Lawrence is probably good to go. Vrabel no easy out vs division opponents, especially at home where the Titans are 4-2-1 ATS. And keep in mind that the 2 losses both went to OT and no loss was more than a field goal. Vrabel a sweet 15-7 SU/14-8 ATS with same season revenge. Take the points with Tennessee. 

Ravens/49ers 8:15: 49ers a hot team but a bit overpriced here. Ravens come into this game with a lethal run game (164 YPG) behind a strong offensive line. SF's defensive line is thin which is a concern. Armstead is out and Hargrave is battling a hamstring issue. And their strongside outside backer - Burks is out. Gus the Bus and Lamar Jackson can cover lots of grass. Moreover, TE Lively is somewhat filling the void for Mark Andrews. And versatile Zay Flowers is living up to his #! draft choice billing while Beckham Jr. has a few miles left. Defensively, Ravens relatively healthy and balanced. Sure, SF is loaded with offensive weaponry in a dynamic Shannahan scheme. But Baltimore is well coached, travel well, and Lamar Jackson has been money vs NFC teams at 19-1! Moreover, he's 11-1 ATS as a dog! Throw in the fact that 7 straight MNF dogs have covered, and you got to take the points here. 

Commanders/Rams 4:05: Rams still in the playoff hunt while Washington will have to wait till next year. Rams lost a tight one in OT to Baltimore last week. Rams have covered 3 straight and offensively torched two of the best defenses in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. They hung 36 on Cleveland and followed up with 31 on Baltimore. Today, they face the worst defense in the NFL. Commanders' fired DC Jack Del Rio after the 45-10 demolition to Dallas. And then followed up by allowing Miami another 45. Commanders are allowing an average of 30 PPG this season. Commanders got rid of their two best edge rushers - Sweat (Chicago) and Young (SF) and struggle to fill those edge voids. Stafford has been well protected this season [1.8 sacks per game (4th)]. And he has a plethora of weapons (Nacua, Kupp, Atwell, Higbee) including a run game with versatile Kyren Williams (800 yards/5 YPC). Hard to believe Commanders can trade points. Howell has shown promise but heavily under duress (4.5 sacks per game - 30th) that lead to INTs (16). Rams' DC Morris is licking his chops despite the loss of Donald (groin). Rams the call. 

Bucs/Falcons 1:00: All seams well with Atlanta. They're sitting on top of the lackluster NFC South. They've won two straight and going for the season series sweep here. I'm not buying into it. They're coming off a physical battle in NY and a bit banged up. QB Ridder has been sacked 28 times, 6 fumbles and 8 INTs. Division opponent - TB has a good run stop unit and rookie Diaby has 5 sacks in the last 6 games. TB has a decent secondary that overachieves with a healthy FS Winfield Jr. Offensively, QB Mayfield is at his best as an underdog. And as long as perennial All Pro Mike Evans is healthy, there is a chance to win. Falcons' HC Arthur Smith can't be trusted here. he's 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent with revenge. TB the call. 

Chargers/Patriots 1:00: Heavy action on Chargers but I don't believe it's warranted. After all, they've lost three straight including a physical battle at home vs Baltimore last week. Teams coming off Baltimore are usually banged up and sluggish going into the next game. Chargers have to travel cross country into cold and rainy Foxborough. Herbert is 0-2 vs Belichick and his top go-to receiver - Keenan Allen is laboring with a quad injury. No doubt, Patriots are pathetic offensively. Mac Jones is benched, and Zappe will start. That's surely not a vote of confidence in New England but fortunately, they face a defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed. Patriots put in a package for elusive QB Malik Cunningham by activating him off practice squad. Perhaps a good wrinkle against a leaky Chargers' run stop unit that gets up the field fast to sack the QB. Defensively, Patriots still sound and should make this an ugly game for NE to deliver. Belichick is a sweet 19-8 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. Also, a strong 14-2 ATS off a non-division game vs a less than .500 opponent off a SU loss of more than 4 points. Value with the Patriots!

Ravens/Chargers 8:20: Physical over finesse. Ravens bring to LA the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. They lead the league in sacks and yards per play allowed (4.5). Sure, Herbert is an elite QB but he can only do so much. The receiving corps is thinning (Williams & Palmer on IR) and Allen, at his age, only has so much juice, and Quentin Johnston won't sneak up on the well-disciplined Ravens' secondary after stepping up his game recently. Chargers' OC Moore wanted to establish a run game early in the season, but since the Chargers are 18th in the NFL running the football, they're becoming more pass happy quickly. And they surely won't establish the ground game vs the Ravens with Roquan Smith manning the middle. On the defensive side of the ball, Chargers are 32nd vs the pass and 31st in allowing yards. Ravens' offense is rolling this year with Jackson. Sure, TE Andrews is out but look for Likely to fill some of the void. And the punishing ground game of Gus Edwards and Hill combined with the speed of Keaton Mitchell too much for the Bosa (IR) less Chargers. And yes, Lamar Jackson is 13-5 SU/15-2-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of fewer than 3 points. Ravens the call. 

Vikings/Broncos 8:20: Broncos flourishing in the dog role with impressive wins over Kansas City and Buffalo. But now they go back as a favorite where they struggle (0-3 ATS). Vikings quietly turning it around themselves. After a 1-4 start, they reeled off 5 straight wins. Minnesota's O'Connell doing an amazing job keeping the Vikings in the hunt with veteran journeyman QB Dobbs. Fortunately, the surrounding cast - from the offensive line, TE Hockenson and WR Addison, to their no-name running game behind Mattison and Chandler. What's more, is the great defensive play behind DC Flores. Like last season, O'Connell finds ways of winning close games and he's flourishing as a dog this season. We'll take the points. 

Titans/Bucs 1:00: Titans had a few extra prep days for this after coming off Thursday night (11-2) loss to Pittsburgh. In that game, QB Will Levis showed he has what it takes to be the starting QB. He hung tough and delivered well enough to win that game; consequently, he won the starting job over Tannehill. Meanwhile, his counterpart - Mayfield - turned in a good enough performance to win; however, the TB secondary was lit up like a torch. Bucs' defense allows 7.4 yards per pass - which is second to last (Denver). Like our chances here with Levis running the offense as RB Henry and Spears can assist in softening up the TB defense to allow Hopkins and company to stretch the field. Tennessee has historically done well on extra rest at 7-0-1 ATS, and also control a 10-2 SU mark in this series. Can't side with TB here. Mayfield strong as a dog but as a favorite a money burning 10-22-2 ATS including 1-9 ATS in his last 10 as chalk. Tennessee the call. 

Ravens/Seahawks 1:00: Seahawks are as healthy as they've been all season. And acquiring versatile lineman Leonard Williams over the trade deadline was huge. He adds the much-needed depth to shore up the run game and disrupt Lamar Jackson in the pass game. Seattle defense has gotten better every week. And they have a talented well-versed secondary. And Ravens won't have starting RT Moses (out). On the flip side, QB Geno Smith getting comfortable distributing the rock to multiple weapons, including #1 draft pick Smith-Nijigba. And with the O-line getting healthy, Walker III and Charbonet can keep the chains moving. Technically, Seattle a sweet 9-0 ATS as a dog of less than 7 points off SU win vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Seattle the call. 

Bengals/49ers 4:25: Bengals starting to heat up while SF is cooling off. Bengals off two straight wins and had a week to prep and get healthy. Meanwhile, SF off two straight losses while their QB Purdy clears concussion protocol and preps for a defense that can make good QBs look average. Not having Deebo Samuel also advantage Cincinnati. And LT Trent Williams is still questionable. How good has Cincinnati been in the Joe Burrow era? Think about this: They're 16-3 SU in their last 19 games vs teams above .500. And they're 18-5 SU/18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 non-division games. Yep, I'm on Cincinnati. 

Browns/Colts 1:00: Browns feeling really good after upsetting class of NFC San Francisco; moreover, Deshaun Watson is most likely to play today. The excitement ends there. Watson has played one decent game this season, against an inept Tennessee offense. His QBR is an underwhelming 46.7. And the Browns have been consistently inconsistent by alternating losses and wins over their last 10 games dating back to last December. Browns' backers should be concerned with the availability of three key players: RB Hunt (thigh), LB Takitaki (out), and arguably their best cornerback - Newsome (hamstring). Colts are a dangerous team here. They have lots of speed at LB and in the secondary along with a formidable defensive front led by Buckner. Offensively, they're in for a big challenge. Browns have a legitimate #1 defense; however, they sell out repeatedly and we won't discount Gardner Minshew despite his 3 INT game last week. He's a smart veteran QB who has some very good skill players and good offensive line. Running game with Jonathan Taylor overdue to get untracked. And we won't overlook the fact that the Colts are an amazing 8-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss vs an opponent off a SU win. Colts the call. 

Colts/Jaguars 1:00: Colts in good hands with Minshew at the controls. And now that Jonathon Taylor got his feet wet last week, he'll chime in with overachieving Moss to fuel that run game. Jaguars are a team to reckon with but could still be in a London fog after back-to-back games in the United Kingdom. Colts seeking revenge from opening day defeat at home. Today, they're much more equipped to get even. Colts' defense getting healthy as LBs Shaq Leanard and tackling machine Franklin on the field at the same time. Jacksonville's HC Pederson a money burning 1-8 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off a SU dog win. And the Jaguars are a brutal 6-20 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins vs division opponent. Jaguars do their best work as a dog. As a favorite: 4-8 SU/3-9 ATS last 12 as chalk. Colts the call. 

Packers/Raiders 8:15: Hard to jump on a Raiders team off three straight losses with a coach (McDaniels) who's not getting it done. Offensive minded McDaniels oversees an offense in the bottom tier of the league. QB Jimmy G, who cleared concussion protocol, leads the league in interceptions (6) despite having one of the best receivers in the league (Davonte Adams) at his disposal. And the running game with Josh Jacobs is not getting generated (2.7 YPC). Raiders are minus 9 in turnover margin - bottom of the league. Packers' defense was not good against the explosive offense of Detroit, which ran all over them; however, they had a few extra days to address those issues under DC Barry. And Packers do have the horses to rush QBs. On the other side of the ball, QB Love will have 4 of his 5 preferred offensive linemen suited up and a full arsenal of skill weaponry. Raiders' secondary has multiple injuries including their top defensive back Hobbs (out). Raiders' do have a great pass rusher in Crosby but his bookend partner Jones is no longer there and Tyree Wilson (#1 pick) has yet to impress. Look for Matt LeFleur to script a solid game plan in designing a script to get the best out of Love and company tonight. GB 10-1 ATS as non-division dog the last 3 seasons including 2-0 ATS this season. As for the Raiders, 1-7 ATS off SU division road loss. Packers the call. 

Chiefs/Jets 8:20: Chiefs turned it up a few notches last week when their offense was under scrutiny for lack of production. With a defense (#4 scoring defense) already in surprisingly good form, KC is a dangerous team. Hopefully, Chris Jones (groin) and Nick Bolton (MLB) are able to go, which add significant value to the defense. Actually, thought this line was going to be at double digits given the pathetic nature of the Jets' offense. Without Jones and Bolton, betting line remains tight. Good news is the KC offense is relatively healthy. Last time Mahomes faced this New York Jets team (2020), he scorched it for 460 yards and 5 TDs. Jets' defense significantly improved since but offensive woes and the lost confidence of Zach Wilson stress that defense too much to hold up the duration of a game. A defense that should be a Top 5 NFL unit across the board is reduced to average (12th scoring defense). Technically, Andy Reid a sweet 12-2 ATS as a favorite off a double-digit ATS win. We'll roll with KC

Saints/Packers 1:00: Packers catching Saints on a short prep week. Saints feeling really good at 2-0. Offense, however, has looked choppy in both games. They really miss RB Kamara. Saints' defense has been stellar though. Today, however, they won't have starting C Adebo (hamstring) and starting S Maye (suspension). And those are big losses. Packers' QB Love possesses the best QB rating in the league at 118.8 with 6 TD passes and no INTs. Run game could get a boost with Aaron Jones (questionable) back. Packers' LaFleur are 5-1 SU/ATS vs undefeated foes and 9-1 ATS before the Lions. Saints are a money burning 1-7 ATS as a road dog of 3 or less off a SU win vs a .500 or greater opponent off a SU loss. Packers the call. 

Packers/Falcons 1:00: Last week, Packers didn't miss a beat with Love replacing Rodgers as the starting QB vs the Bears. Packers didn't have vertical threat Watson last week and probably not today either; however, others stepping up to fill receiving void. TE Musgrave (#2 draft choice) had a big game as well as Doubs. Packers could be without RB Jones (hamstring) but Dillon is capable of carrying load. Defensively, liked how Joe Barry's bunch stepped up to stall out the Bears. Atlanta is loaded with offensive playmakers, but offensive line was not that impressive. Carolina shot itself in the foot offensively to open the door for Atlanta. GB more disciplined. GB a sweet 8-0 ATS off a SU division win vs non-division opponent off a SU win. They're also 8-1 ATS as a non-division dog. And Lafleur is a sweet 5-0 ATS as a dog off a double-digit win. Packers the call. 

Packers/Bears 4:25: Value with the Bears. The #1 rush team in the league last season will have more weapons at Justin Fields disposal. D.J. Moore (via Carolina) was a huge addition, and #1 draft choice OT Darnell Wright and G Nate Davis (free agency) will add to the protection depth. Packers' defense in good hands under DC Barry but the lack of offense should do them in; after all, QB Love won't have vertical threat Watson (out) and Doubs is questionable with a hamstring issue. They'll likely lean on their run game behind Jones and Dillon who ran roughshod over the Bears last year at Lambeau Field for 193 yards. Bears were 31st vs the run last year but addressed those issues in the offseason with good additions along their front seven. We'll look for the Bears to break the dismal 0-8 slide vs their division rival. 

Chiefs/Eagles 6:30: On paper, Eagles the better complete team. On the field, with the lights at their brightest, I'll go with the league MVP (Mahomes) and experienced "big game" coaching staff. Chiefs' DC Spagnuolo draws up good defensive game plans post season. He did it with the Giants and has done it well with the Chiefs. Eagles' offense very dangerous but every offense has its weakness to exploit, and Spagnuolo should find it. Andy Reid has been highly effective with additional rest and off bye weeks. Strategizing is a big part of big games and Reid is near top of the heap in that category. Eagles' defense tremendously aggressive and the best sack team since the '84 - '85 Bears. That defensive line gets up the field fast; consequently, look for the Chiefs to work a quick pass game (Kelce/Toney) and establish run game with slasher back Pacheco and newly activated Edwards-Helaire. Coaching experience in big games and proven big game winner Mahomes checks the mark for taking the points here. Chiefs the call. 

Chargers/Broncos 4:25: Regardless of the playoff seeding scenarios for the Chargers, they've clinched a spot. A win by the Bengals in the earlier game gives speculation that Staley will sit a lot of his starters; however, he has no plans for that and wants momentum going into the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to continue their winning surge. The defense has been one of the key driving forces in their winning run down the stretch. Their previous 4 opponents were held to 11 PPG or less. Their defensive efficiency went from #26 to #5. LB Van Noy has been pivotal in their success as he's had a sack in 4 straight games. Chargers' offense now in rhythm with receivers Williams and Allen healthy for machinelike QB Herbert. Broncos gave a strong effort vs KC last week and are on a nice run covering 4 of their last 5. But Chargers are a lot better now than their October 17th OT win over Denver. And the Broncos cannot be trusted in the favorite role. Dog is 5-2 ATS in this series. Take the points with the Chargers. 

Vikings/Packers 4:25: Really impressed with the secondary play of Green Bay this season (#3 vs pass) especially last week vs elite receivers Waddle and Hill. They'll face some very good ones today in Jefferson, Theilen, TE Hockenson, and RB Cook. We'll look for the Packers' DC Barry to continue to make the right adjustments. Offensively, Rodgers a bit off the mark but got in a groove with his receiving corps and the Pack is rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run. Green Bay offense should run through the Vikings' soft defense like a hot knife through butter. Vikings in the bottom tier vs the pass, total yards and points allowed. LaFleur a sweet 11-2 ATS as a favorite vs a .500 or greater team off a SU win. And the Packers are 9-1 ATS vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Packers can win out and have a good chance at the playoffs. Green Bay should get sweet revenge from Week 1 loss.  

Philadelphia/Dallas 4:25: This series has gone 'over' 4 straight and 5 of the last 7 in Dallas. Philadelphia offense shouldn't slow down with Minshew at the helm. He would most likely be a starting QB on at least 3 NFL teams this season. And he's got a lot of skill weaponry at his disposal, including TE Goedert back for this one. Cowboys have injuries on the back end of their defense, and with Dallas LB Vander Esch out, Eagles run game won't miss a beat with arguably the best offensive line in the league leading the way. Cowboys' run stop unit 24th in the league vulnerable. On the other hand, Eagles only soft spot is their run stop unit. They're in the lower echelon of the league stopping the run (19th). And Dallas can run the football when they're devoted to it. With heavy "over" trends for these teams in December, we'll go "over" here. 

Minnesota/Detroit 1:00: Both of these teams have heavy "over" trends. And this series has gone 4-1 O/U in its last 5 meetings and 4-1 O/U in Detroit. Lions on a 10-4 O/U overall run. Not a surprise considering their defense allows 27 PPG (last in the league). But Goff and company have been machine-like this season averaging 26.3 PPG. OC Ben Johnson has done an outstanding job working with Goff and the offense. They should be able to frequent the end zone against the worst pass defense in the NFL that allows 283.6 YPG. We'll go "over" here. 

Titans/Eagles 1:00: Titans a dangerous road team that's won 5 straight ATS on the road (4-1 SU). Eagles are a legitimate NFC contender with a potent Top 3 offense. But Titans have an underrated defense that stiffens in the red zone (18.6 PPG allowed. Eagles on the other hand, have few flaws; however, they're missing their ball hawking S Gardner-Johnson (lacerated kidney), and although Blankenship looked solid in that reserve role last week, he's still just a rookie. Look for King Henry and the play action game of Tannehill and company to get it going this week. Eagles have been vulnerable to strong run games this season. Titans are a sweet 18-7 ATS on the road vs the NFC East including 9-1 ATS in the last 10. Tennessee the call. 

Bears/Falcons 1:00: All of a sudden, the Bears are turning into an NFL offensive powerhouse.  They've notched 33, 29, 32, 30 points in their last 4 games, respectively. And in the process, they've played some pretty good defenses in New England, Dallas, Miami. Coming off a loss at home vs Detroit, Bears should get it done against the yielding defense of Atlanta which is in the bottom tier of the NFL for yardage and points allowed. Versatile QB Justin Fields has been the focal point of the offense launching the Bears to the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. Although Herbert (IR) won't play, Montgomery is very capable of getting the bulk of carries. And don't be surprised if Claypool emerges as a pass threat now that he's been worked in the fray for a few weeks; after all, Atlanta has the worst pass defense in the NFL. Offensively, Atlanta one dimensional as QB Mariota struggling to create a passing game ranked 31st in the NFL. Sure, Bears defense no longer Monsters of the Midway, and getting rid of Roquan Smith is still a mystery to me; however, his replacement Sanborn had 12 tackles, 9 solos and 2 sacks last week. Bears are 6-0 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points vs the NFC South. And they've covered 5 of the last 7 in Atlanta. Falcons started a red hot 6-0 ATS but have dropped 4 straight. Take the Bears today.

Panthers/Bengals 1:00:  Both secondaries have thinned out with injuries. Carolina has S Burris (concussion) out and C Donte Jackson laboring with a sprained ankle. Bengals' QB Burrow should bounce back strong today despite the loss of Chase (hip). He still has Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst and RB Mixon to go to. Bengals' ground game not good but could start cooking today vs the mediocre run-stop-unit of Panthers (23rd). On the other hand, Carolina will stay with P.J. Walker as their QB. And they should! He's in rhythm with receivers and putting points on the board; moreover, RB D'onta Foreman filling the RB void for McCaffrey (SF). He's running the rock hard and opening up the passing game. Bengals' secondary thinning with Awuzie (knee), Flowers (hamstring), Hilton (finger) all laboring. And the run stop unit of Cincy leaves much to be desired (21st). We got about 3 points of value with this total and I'm going "over". 

49ers/Rams 4:25: 49ers are 7-0 SU vs the Rams during the regular season but the eighth won't be a charm. 49ers off two straight losses you would think be ready to get it rolling like they did last season after four straight losses, but injuries to key personnel will make it tough here. Major playmaker Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out and key blocking component FB Kyle Juszcyk (finger). And defensively, SF will continue to miss DT Armstead, and solid run-stopper WLB Greenlaw (calf) won't play. Meanwhile, LA Rams had a bye week to heal up and find a way to finally beat the 49ers. This is a pretty good spot for them to get er done; after all, Rams are 11-4-1 ATS off a bye week, and 9-1 ATS with rest vs an opponent with winning percentage less than .666. Stafford will have an extra target with speedy target Van Jefferson (off IR) to stretch the field. Moreover, having starting C Brian Allen back will help stabilize an offensive line that's been in a state of flux for most of the season.  Dog 7-1 ATS in this series and take the point with the home team. 

Texans/Raiders 4:05: Both teams coming off a bye. Texans went into their bye feeling pretty good after knocking off Jacksonville. Las Vegas went into theirs following a heartbreaking loss to KC. Raiders are 0-5 ATS following a bye week. Raiders can hang with top opposition, as exhibited in all their games. They do, however, have finishing games as demonstrated vs the Chargers, Titans, Cardinals, and Chiefs. Moreover, they're 0-4 ATS vs teams under .500. And their coach - McDaniels fits right in for he went 0-4 ATS with Denver as a less than .500 team taking on a less than .500 team. Houston is a team that shows ugly stats at the bottom of the league in offensive production and giving up yards defensively; however, a closer look reveals a strong defensive secondary that's given QBs fits getting in the end zone. Texans have given up just 19.8 PPG and are opportunistic creating turnovers (8). We'll look for Houston to do what they do best - stick around and make it interesting. Take the TD

Bills/Chiefs 4:25: Chiefs inability to fortify their secondary, could be their downfall here. Chiefs are in the bottom tier of the NFL in defending the pass - allowing a generous 255.6 YPG. KC no longer equipped with playmaker Tyrann Mathieu (Saints) and #1 draft pick Trent McDuffie on IR, could be in for a long night here. Bills' QB Josh Allen leads the NFL in yards with 1651, should be able to pick apart the secondary. DC Spagnuolo threw everything but the kitchen sink at Josh Allen in the AFC Division round last season, and Allen was unstoppable. It was the breakout game for Gabe Davis. This week, Spagnuolo had to call up secondary reserves for his thinning secondary. And Buffalo offensive line has done a decent job opening holes for the ground game as well as protecting Allen. Don't see KC stopping the #1 offense in the NFL today. Defensively, Bills sport the #2 defense and have gotten healthy over the last few weeks, including adding additional depth to the defensive line as Ed Oliver is good to go. Road team 9-4 ATS in this series. Bills have covered 6 of last 8 in KC. And with the dramatic win over Las Vegas last Monday, we'll take the team that had an extra day of rest/prep. Take Buffalo. 

Bengals/Ravens 8:20: The well-rested Bengals should do well here; after all, last season, Burrow carved up the Baltimore's secondary to the tune of 941 yards, 7 TDs in 2 wins! Back in the day, that would be a good season for a QB. Since then, Harbaugh fired DC Martindale at season end and went in-house with secondary coach Mike McDonald as the DC. The Ravens are now 32nd (last) in the NFL in pass yards allowed (315 YPG). Burrow and company surely licking their chops. Bengals 4-1 ATS at Baltimore, and they're 8-1 ATS vs a division opponent with revenge. Bengals are respectable defensively and rank 4th against the rush and a solid eighth in points allowed (17'). Ravens not a good team in October at 11-27-2 and just 4-12 in Week 5. We'll take the points and the Bengals. 

Washington/Dallas 1:00: I don't see a falloff in production from the Cowboys, despite coming off a Monday game. Mccarthy a solid 5-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs a less than .500 opponent. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in October and 6-0 ATS vs less than .500 foes. They've dominated the NFC East to the tune of 21-7 ATS. Dec 26th of last year, the Cowboys destroyed Washington 56-14 in this stadium. Cooper Rush (3-0 SU/ATS as a starter) has been solid in his decision making and he's getting time from his offensive line. On the other hand, Wentz has already been sacked 6X. That's bad news as the Cowboys' pass rush has been brutal on QBs thus far (averaging 4.3 sacks per game). Parsons has been virtually unstoppable pressing and sacking QBs. And Washington's tattered offensive line has two linemen - Leno (shoulder) and Schweitzer (concussion) that most likely won't play. And not liking the Washington defense which has been unable to stop anybody this season. In October, Cowboys 9-2 ATS at home vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. Dallas the call. 

49ers/Broncos 8:20: In two games under Hackett, the Broncos have not looked like the power house they were projected to be in the AFC West. Mismanagement of the clock, poor decision making, and not getting plays in quick enough have culminated in an 0-2 ATS mark for the Broncos. Now Hackett has brought in a consultant (Rosburg) to advise him on play calling. With that kind of uncertainty at this stage of the game, we'll go with the defensively stout 49ers who lead the league in defending the pass, #2 vs the run, and #1 in total yards allowed. Bosa is a major disrupter when he's healthy and he'll be on the field. On the other hand, SF's Garoppolo, now 35-16 SU as a starter including playoffs, will have another weapon at his disposal as TE George Kittle is ready to go. And Deebo Samuel is happy Jimmy G is back. He can be utilized more in the offense like last season. We'll grab San Francisco here. 

Packers/Vikings 4:25: Packers have lost 4 of the last 6 trips to Minnesota and I'm confident the Vikings can deliver again. Vikings' underrated QB Cousins loaded with weaponry and they're all healthy for a change. Thielen and Justin Jefferson spearhead one of the best WR duos in the NFL. And when RB Cook is doing his thing, Minnesota is hard to stop. Green Bay made some questionable off season moves including not re-signing one of their best pass rushers - Za'Darius Smith (44' sacks/53 tackles in 91 games). The Vikings, ironically, were glad to pick him up to add to their pass rush with Hunter. New DC Ed Donatell, who studied under one of the best defensive minds in the business - Vic Fangio, installed the 3-4 and more built to handle the teams that air it out. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers won't have dominant Devonte Adams (Raiders) to throw to. And Lazard (knee) is doubtful. He has rookie #2 draft pick Christian Watson as one of his go-to guys. Vikings addressed the defensive backfield in the draft and have a nice blend of talent to deliver. Minnesota the call. 

Rams/Bengals 6:30:  Much ado about if the Bengals' offensive line can hold up against the formidable Rams' front line.  Hypothetically, if the Bengals decide to employ a consistent deep route passing game, then Burrow will most likely be sacked more often than not. Fortunately for Cincinnati, they have the offensive flexibility to employ a quick pass game with their wealth of skill personnel Chase, Higgins and Boyd; moreover, TE Uzomah (MCL) is good to go to work a Rams' defense that has been vulnerable between the numbers throughout the season. Furthermore, Bengals have 1000+ rusher Mixon and Perine to run under the hard charging Aaron Donald, Floyd and Von Miller. And Burrow has developed a strong track record at quickly processing where his open receivers are. And yes, Jalen Ramsey is a solid corner but it's not within the Rams' defensive system to use him as a lockdown corner. When he has matched up against elite receivers, results were mixed; after all, Tampa Bay's Mike Evans worked him pretty well. And let's not forget that the Rams defense gave up 2,614 yards after catch (YAC) - that's the second most in the NFL! On the other hand, loved how Bengals' DC Anarumo has employed multiple blitz packages on opposing QBs in the playoffs. Hendrickson and company have proved to be a formidable line themselves. And with TE Higbee (MCL) not making the rehab progress the Rams had hoped, one less key target for Stafford to go to in taking off pressure from Kupp. Bengals' secondary has been well disciplined throughout playoffs and pose a serious threat. With Bengals possessing a well-rounded team, including special teams, they're a dangerous Super Bowl dog here and I'm taking the points. 

49ers/Rams 6:40: 49ers have beaten their division rival 6 straight times and I'm taking the points today. 49ers' defense better in every aspect of the game and with the healthy SF defensive line rotation led by Nick Bosa, and the solid run stop unit with healthy MLB Warner, SF has what it takes to slow down the Rams' potent offense. They proved their mettle slowing down the #1 offense in the NFL (Dallas) and then going up to the frozen tundra of Green Bay and knocking the top seed out. Special teams, defense and enough offensive play making. Sure, Garoppolo has been quite mediocre throughout the process but ask any of his teammates who they want on the field with them, and it's a resounding affirmative for Jimmy G. And remember this: Garoppolo sports a 71.7 QBR vs the Rams en-route to a perfect 6-0 mark against them -better than any other NFL QB. He's overdue to post some good numbers today. Rams' defense vulnerable; after all, between the numbers (middle of field), Rams' defense has allowed 77% completions and 7 yards per attempt. Consequently, Shanahan will surely work an effective game plan to utilize his big-time weapons of Kittle, Samuel and even Aiyuk, RB Mitchell and FB Juszczyk to exploit that.  SF the call. 

Bills/Chiefs 6:30: Too much money going on Buffalo as this line softens to a pick. Sure, Bills got their revenge in Week 5 in a convincing 38-20 beatdown in KC. And last week, annihilated New England. Bills are no question serious threat and play well in KC; however, don't believe KC should be a mere pick in this game considering they're still the incumbent AFC Champs with virtually all off those same players healthy. And KC is not the same team they were in Week 5 when they were missing top lineman Chris Jones and CB Ward. Moreover, KC defense has come a long way since; as a matter of fact, KC won 9 of their last 10 games since losing to Tennessee October 24th led by a defense that ranked in the top tier over that time frame. Spagnuolo took Josh Allen out his game in last year's AFC Championship in a 38-24 loss. He'll surely put him to test again with a ball healthy ball hawking secondary. And let's not count out the magic of Mahomes who is equipped with his full weaponry, including welcoming back RB Edwards-Helaire. Andy Reid 16-4 ATS as a favorite off double-digit win and we'll roll with him and the Chiefs here.

Cardinals/Rams 8:15: Cardinals very capable of pulling the upset here. Rams' overrated defense got more bad news late in the week with two key secondary components FS Taylor Rapp and SS Jordan Fuller out. They had to bring up 37 year old Eric Weddle to help fill the void. Rams struggled vs playoff teams this season at 2-5 SU. Stafford (0-3 SU in playoffs) was on fire though the first 8 games (310 YPG/22-4 TD/INT) going 7-1 SU but production fizzled in the last 9 (268 YPG/19 TD/13 INT) with a 5-4 record. Road team got the best of this series this season. And Cardinals are at their best on the road at 8-1 SU. RB James Connor should be good to go and defensively, the addition of JJ Watt (off IR) will be an added boost. Cards 18-6-3 ATS as a road dog. Rams don't play the favorite role well at 3-7 ATS and just 1-4 ATS as a playoff favorite. Cardinals the call. 

Patriots/Bills 8:15: Bills healthier going into this one with almost a clean slate of healthy bodies; meanwhile, Patriots will be without LT Wynn (hip/ankle) which will require offensive line shuffling. Fortunately, this game's weather will be one of the coldest on record (2 degrees w/ 14 MPH winds) and that favors New England. First matchup in this series - December 6th - Patriots threw just 3 passes while gutting the overrated Bills' run stop unit. Surely more passes will be thrown tonight as Patriots' OC McDaniels will find the soft spots in the Bills' defense. Offensively, Bills' QB Josh Allen completed just 49% of his passes over the last 2 games and has the 2nd worst completion % among quarterbacks in freezing game temperatures. Patriots have had success in Buffalo at 7-1 ATS. Sure, Patriots coming off a bad defensive game vs Miami but sport a 24-7 ATS mark after allowing 30+ points, they're 18-6 ATS w/ revenge against conference opponents above .400. This series has gone to the road team at 19-6-2 ATS and the dog at 5-1-1 ATS. Patriots the call. 

Titans/Texans 1:00: Titans should be locked in here; after all, at stake is a first-round bye. Titans earlier in the year played down to their competition including dropping the first meeting in this series in Week 11 at home 22-13. In that game, the Titans out-yarded the Texans 420-190 but Tannehill threw 4 INTs! Now that the Titans' offensive line is much healthier and Julio Jones and A.J. Brown can be on the field at the same time, Titans should keep the offensive machine working. RB Foreman will get the nod again while Derrick Henry gets ready for playoffs. But no alarm, the mending Titans' offensive line paved the way against a pretty good run stop unit of Miami last week for 132 yards. Texans' run stop unit is worst in the NFL. On the flip side, there is no DeShawn Watson who scared the Titans' last year or even Tyrod Taylor who directed the win in Week 11. Davis Mills, who may be a decent QB down the line, will get the nod. He's struggling with a 32.2 QBR - 29th in the league; he doesn't have a run game (32nd in NFL) to help him out and the Titans' revamped defense is getting after the QB, ball hawking the secondary and stopping the run now. Titans 4-0 ATS after running for 150+ and they're 4-0 ATS after scoring more than 30+. Texans 1-4 ATS off SU loss of 14+. Titans the call. 

Raiders/Colts 1:00: Raiders usually slip slide away with the December weather but are defying logic this time around as they control their own destiny with a legitimate shot for the playoffs if they win out. They're off two wins and we're back on them again today. The trendy pick is Indianapolis which is coming off a monster win Christmas Day at Arizona. But Indy not the greatest in the role back at home off back-to-back SU/ATS wins where they're 0-7 ATS. Sure, they're getting back lots of bodies from the Covid list, including - most likely Wentz. And the line is inflated because of it. Raiders' defense impressive last week holding Denver to 18 yards rushing and 150 total yards. And the Raiders' run game looked solid last week as well with Jacobs (129 yards/ 4.8 YPC). The Raiders' offense could surely use TE Waller (Covid/Knee) but Moreau is doing a decent job and Carr is making the best of who he has at his disposal. We'll look for the Raiders to stick around; after all, they're 9-0 ATS on the road vs the AFC South. In the spirit of John Madden - Go Raiders!

Broncos/Raiders 4:25: Raiders have had Denver's number going 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS in its last 8 in this series, including 34-24 on October 17th. In that game, Raiders got after Bridgewater hitting him a number of times and sacking him five times. Today, interception king - Drew Lock - takes over at the helm as Bridgewater is in concussion protocol. Lock has a tendency to rally his troops and make flashy plays but usually follows up with a late game interception or fumble that proves costly. Raiders still have an outside chance to get into playoffs and I surely trust Carr more than Drew Lock. Of course, Waller (knee) and Ruggs (cut) are no longer around but Carr still has enough weaponry at his disposal and TE Moreau turning into a pretty good target as well. We'll jump on Las Vegas. 

Bengals/Broncos 4:05: This series has gone 1-3 O/U in its last 4 meetings. Denver is a team with a middle of the road offense (#20 scoring) with a well-disciplined defense (#2 scoring defense). Consequently, Denver on a 1-6 O/U run. We'll ride that here. Bengals' offensive line has issues which don't allow Burrow and Mixon to do what they're capable of doing. The Bengals' defense, however, capable of holding their own here. Bengals are 1-4 O/U off a SU loss and 5-14-2 O/U as a road dog. Denver is 4-20 O/U when the OU line is 45 or more. "Under" the call.

Detroit/Denver 4:05: Had Detroit last week in their epic last second win at home vs Minnesota; today, I'm fading them against a hungry Denver team. Denver's coming off a disappointing divisional loss to KC but still in the playoff hunt. Broncos are 10-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points. They're also 11-2 ATS vs teams under .500. Moreover, they're 10-1 ATS as favorites of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Broncos will have Melvin Gordon back today to add to the quality RB depth after Javonte Williams (102 rush yards last week) did a bang up job in KC. Don't see the Lions hanging with a well disciplined Vic Fangio coached defense, especially without a run game this late in the season. And the Lions had nearly a dozen players down with the flu mid week. Broncos should wear them down over the course of this game. Denver the call. 

Broncos/Chiefs 8:20: Both of these teams turning up the heat defensively. Love how the Broncos held the potent Chargers' offense to 13 points last week. Broncos have the #3 scoring defense in the NFL allowing just 17.8 PPG. Chiefs are actually turning it up defensively holding their last 4 foes to 17, 7, 14 and 9 points, respectively. Broncos have a more conservative ball control offense and will be without RB Melvin Gordon. This series has gone "under" in 3 of the last 4 games. Denver is 3-15 O/U when the 'total' is set at above 45 vs a conference opponent. Broncos are also 4-14 O/U vs the AFC West. Chiefs are coming off a bye week and 3-11-1 O/U in that role. These teams are a combined 14-30 O/U in December. We'll stay "under". 

Rams/Packers 4:25: Rams getting a bit too much credit by the odds-makers here. Sure, they're coming off a bye week and heavily determined to bounce back off two straight losses. Yet, the underachieving Rams control a mediocre defense given all the talent. Their defensive unit got worked at home vs Tennessee and embarrassed on Monday Night in San Francisco. Today, it's not going to get easier vs Aaron Rodgers and company on the near frozen tundra in Green Bay with the projected forecast at 35 degrees game time. Warm weathered Rams had difficulty on the West Coast in its last two games. Sure, Rodgers' toe is broken but it didn't stop him from dropping 385 yards passing with 4 TDs at Minnesota last week. And even if RB Aaron Jones is unable to go, AJ Dillon is an equally effective back. Packers covered 6 straight in this series and I expect a 7th. 

Saints/Eagles 1:00: Not sold on the Eagles and don't give up on the Saints. Eagles coming off a comfortable win over the Broncos in what was perhaps their most complete game of the year. Eagles a young team and with youth comes inconsistency. Saints have a veteran team, winning culture and lots of pride. After last year's losing effort, in a game in which the Eagles ran all over them, the Saints' #1 run stop unit in the NFL should show up big and take away what Philly does best - run the rock. On the other hand, Saints no longer the explosive offense now that Brees has departed, but Siemian is tutored well under Sean Payton. Siemian has been an efficient passer with 5 TD passes and 0 interceptions in his 3 games. Deonte Harris has emerged as his go to guy and Mark Ingram II is capable of keeping the run game going. Eagles are a poor 1-5 ATS as home chalk, and 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games. Saints are 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and a sweet 24-8 ATS as a road dog. Other than the disastrous September 19th game at Carolina (my Top Play that week), the Saints have been competitive in every game this season. Today, they deliver.    

Eagles/Broncos 4:25: All over the Broncos last week and staying on them here. Eagles coming off a loss at home to the Chargers and now have to travel mile high to Denver. Broncos feeling good about themselves after blasting the Cowboys in Dallas last week. Broncos' Fangio a sweet 12-1 ATS vs non-division foes off non-division game, and they're 8-0 ATS vs a less than .500 foe off a SU loss. Broncos 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series. Broncos should add C Pat Surtain (knee) back in the lineup; moreover, TE Noah Fant is activated off the Covid19 list - a big addition considering Tim Patrick (knee) is questionable. Denver's defense (#2 in points allowed) keeps them in games. And unlike last year when Drew Lock would throw an interception late to cost them a close game, Teddy Bridgewater does a nice job of managing the clock and making plays. Eagles are about a year away from closing out games on the winning end and we're staying on the Broncos here. 

Raiders/Giants 1:00: Giants had a huge opportunity to win last Monday's game at Kansas City. A drive stalling taunting penalty cost them; nevertheless, they covered the big number for me. Today, I'm back on them. Sure, Barkley likely won't play and they've got more injury concerns on both sides of the ball; however, Daniel Jones doing a decent job managing the offense and he still has enough weaponry to keep the ball moving with TE Engram, WRs Toney and Slayton and, perhaps, Golladay (knee/hip) who would be gravy if he's good to go. Giants' defense is yielding but making plays and gives them a chance here. Raiders, of course, will be without vertical threat Ruggs (released) and will have to travel cross country in a rough spot. Raiders a dismal 1-16 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins. Sure, they're coming off a bye week; however, just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off byes. Giants 5-1 ATS in November and 6-1 ATS after allow less than 90 yards rushing. We'll grab the points with the G-Men. 

Panthers/Falcons 1:00: Had the Falcons (-1') last week in a narrow win over Miami. What appeared to be a solid cover late in the game turned out to be a sweat down the stretch because of a shaky defense (#30 scoring defense allowing 29.6 PPG). Today, I'm fading the Falcons who appear to be gaining momentum; a closer look, however, reveals the their light schedule enabling them to get back into contention; after all, they've taken on the last four teams going a combined 6-21! Giants, Washington, Jets and Dolphins not exactly murderer's row of the NFL. And they were outgained in 3 of those last 4 games. Sure, Carolina is struggling offensively. Rhule will figure it out. He's 8-2 ATS on the road. Darnold should get back in rhythm with his skill guys; after all, he's got some pretty good targets in DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and versatile back Chuba Hubbard - who's no McCaffrey but has skill. Carolina looked crappy vs an underrated Giants' defense last week; today, Carolina delivers. Panthers 21-6 ATS as a road dog off a SU favorite loss. 

Falcons/Dolphins 1:00: Scheduling advantage for the Falcons here. Both of these teams played in London recently; however, Falcons played there on the 10th and had a bye week while Miami played there last week. Falcons are relatively healthy and veteran QB Ryan is getting in good rhythm with #1 draft choice TE Pitts. On the other hand, Miami ranks at the bottom tier of the league in most categories offensively and defensively. Miami has regressed significantly from a year ago and key players (C Xavien Howard / WR Parker) are limited in practice. I'm going to back the well rested Falcons with the better QB and defense.

Raiders/Broncos 4:25: Raiders hot start has fizzled with Gruden's exit. Raiders are producing just 19 PPG and can't generate a run game (78 rush yards per game). Denver's defense in good hands under defensive mastermind Fangio. On the other hand, Denver's offense struggling on 3rd down. And having their top 2 receivers - Jeudy and Hamilton out won't help matters. Raiders play the pass well (#3 in NFL). Heavy "under" trends by Denver, including 6-21-1 O/U after allowing 350 yards through the air, and they're 8-17 O/U at home. Raiders 2-7 O/U as a road dog. This series is historically low scoring at 1-8 O/U and 1-5 O/U in Denver. Fangio determined to avenge last year's season sweep and should deliver. He's 0-5 O/U with revenge vs division. "Under" the call. 

Bills/Chiefs 8;20: Bills, off a breakthrough year in 2020 offensively, still possess a potent offense with Josh Allen and Diggs; however, this year, their defense is much improved (#1 in multiple categories). That should make a difference tonight. Bills can make stops whereas the KC Chiefs' defense has tailed off drastically - in the bottom tier of the NFL in multiple categories. Chiefs can still win games but not covering especially in one score games - 10-2 SU but 1-10-1 ATS in that category since last season. Bills the call. 

Seahawks/49ers 4:05: Seahawks overdue to get back on the winning track; after all, QB Russell Wilson and HC Pete Carroll have not lost 3 straight in their professional career. Seattle sports a 32-15-4 ATS mark off a SU loss and 9-3 ATS as a road dog; moreover, 13-5-1 ATS vs SF. Most teams have their share of injuries but SF hit extremely hard in the defensive backfield which could factor heavy here. Seattle, which has been very productive in the first half of each game, must find ways of finishing and Carroll should figure that out this week. SF a money burner as a favorite at 5-21-1 ATS. We'll grab the Seahawks!

49ers/Eagles 1:00: Eagles, flying under the radar, came out with guns a blazin' last week at Atlanta. Devonta Smith showed he was the real deal with 6 catches for 71 yards and a TD. Hurts looked good in the well balanced offensive attack under Sirianni. Sure, SF put some points up too but against a suspect Lions' defense. Moreover, Lions came roaring back for the back door cover vs a SF defense that doesn't have the same bite it did under former DC now Jets' HC Robert Saleh. What's more, the defense has injuries to key personnel including C Verrett. Philly 7-2 ATS last 9 in this series at home. SF, not a good favorite at 9-25-1 ATS. Eagles the call.

Chiefs/Bucs 6:30: Both teams equipped with the best QBs in the NFL, top of the line skill personnel, and defensive playmakers. What separates TB from KC is the fact that the Chiefs have to shuffle offensive linemen on account of T Eric Fisher (Achilles); consequently, Martinas Rankin, who started one game this season, gets the starting assignment to guard Mahomes back. TB's front 7 is playing at a high level including Top 5 pass rush bookends Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett; moreover, TBs' outstanding linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White are menacing not only against the run but are extremely effective and disruptive blitzing as exhibited in two games against Aaron Rodgers. No other team came close to stopping him for the low numbers he posted. The fact is that the Bucs defense was impressive in the playoffs and also got their revenge against Drew Brees. Sure, Tyreek Hill was incredibly effective carving up TB's secondary to the tune of 3 TDs including explosive play 75 and 45 yard scores in the earlier year matchup. TB's DC Bowles has been effective in making the right adjustments and we'll look for him to do so here. He will have outstanding rookie S Winfield Jr. back in center field. Bucs speed at linebacker and emergence of Murphy-Bunting (3 consecutive post-season games with interception) give TB a fighting chance in the red zone to keep Kelce and Hill and Edwards-Helaire at bay. On the other hand, KC defense in red zone not good; as a matter of fact, they've allowed a generous 76.6% scoring there. Of 5 other Super Bowl defenses that had a red zone efficiency rating at or over 60%, those Super Bowl teams went a collective 0-5 in the big game. With Evans (2 TD's first matchup), Gronk (106 yards first game), Brate + Antonio Brown (both probable), and Ronald Jones - overdue to be utilized out of the backfield, Brady should be able to distribute the ball effectively. And lets not forget that Tom Brady is an amazing 41-17-1 as an underdog. We'll grab the points.

 Bucs/Packers 3:05: Got this one in early in the week with Packers -3. Line moved to -3' to 4 on news Antonio Brown would be out. Will still stay on the Packers here. Run game working very well with Aaron Jones as they gutted a very good LA Rams' defense last week. If Aaron Jones is able to get cranking today, and I believe he will, Buc's defense won't be able to sit back in zone a majority of the time like they did earlier in the year vs Rodgers. Rodgers and company should make the adjustments on their home turf. TB has been fortunate to avoid frigid temperatures this season but will see them Sunday. Sure, Brady and Gronk won't be affected as much but rest of fair weathered team should stiffen up a bit - similar to the Rams last week - just enough for acclimated Packers to gain a step on them. Defensively, Packers defense much better than what it was October 18th. Preston and Za'Darius Smith are in great form up front and a healthy Kenny Clark adds a more formidable pass rush this time around. From a defensive perspective, Packers should attack the right side where TB is most vulnerable. And with TB's AB out, GB's top corner - Alexander - should lock up on Mike Evans. And Packers' defense will need to adjust to Gronk - who had pretty big game on the 18th. With the addition of Tramon Williams (cut from Baltimore last week), he can add depth to Packers' secondary; after all, he had two stints with the Packers (most recently 2018-19) and knows the system. We'll look for GB to push the right buttons today on their home turf and effectively get to Brady. Packers the call. 

Cowboys/Giants 1:00: Winner here gets to sweat it out later tonight hoping the Eagles pull the upset of Washington. If Washington loses, one of these teams, providing it's not a tie, goes into the playoffs. We'll look for the vengeful Giants to deliver. They gave Dallas all they could handle October 11th in a 37-34 loss. Today, Giants have what it takes to beat Dallas. Former Cowboys' HC and current Giants' OC Garrett now back on the sidelines (Covid19 cleared) should get his revenge. He's got a pretty good run game in heavy sets and Daniel Jones should be prepared. Of course, he's limited in mobility (hamstring) but making inroads from the pocket. Defensively, Giants much better and get back OLB Fackrell who is a difference maker. Cowboys did go on a 3-0 run but wins over Cincinnati, Covid19 decimated SF and Philadelphia are not a ringing endorsement. Over the same time frame, Giants has rough sledding against playoff caliber teams Arizona, Cleveland and Baltimore. Giants are on an 0-7 SU skid to Dallas and should upset them today. 

Rams/Seahawks 4:25: Seahawks clinched a playoff birth with win over Washington last week; however, they remain hungry for their first division title since 2016 and want that all important home playoff game that's eluded them since January 2017. Rams, which clinched a playoff birth with the Cardinals losing yesterday, have given the Seahawks trouble since McVay took over as head coach. McVay controls a 5-2 SU edge over his rival Pete Carroll. But Carroll has straightened a few things out on the defensive end since these teams last played. Of course Carlos Dunlap has settled in to be a defensive line sack force. And a healthy S Jamal Adams (9.5 sacks) keeps Seattle in games with his versatility. Offensively, Seattle will have T Shell ready to go and G Simmons did a nice job filling in for Iupati. Seattle's run game still cooking with Carson and Hyde. And Penny, activated a few weeks ago, adds depth to the backfield that's winning the run game almost weekly. Rams will be without RB Cam Akers (ankle). A concern for McVay is his poor 0-6 ATS record on the road vs an opponent off back to back SU wins. Seattle looking to avenge their November 15th beating and we'll take them!

Browns/Giants 8:20: Giants have been quite a resilient team this year off losses; as a matter of fact, they have not failed to cover following an ATS loss this season. We'll grab the near TD here despite QB Daniel Jones most likely out. His backup - Colt McCoy has been around for awhile and has veteran poise. He did a nice job at Seattle. Giants should get back to their run game with Gallman, Lewis and Morris. Browns' defense gashed on Monday vs Baltimore and they're operating on a short week here. Need talented wide receivers Shepard, Slayton and Tate to step up their game; moreover, TE Engram needs to get involved. Browns operating with a banged up secondary with FS Sendejo out. Browns 1-9 ATS on the road in their last 10 vs the NFC East. Giants still in the hunt for a playoff spot should play hard. They're defense keeps them in the game. Tonight, Giants should elevate their 8-3 ATS mark as a dog this season.