02-07-25 |
Raptors +19.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
109-121 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
Even though the Raptors won't have Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett while the Thunder gets back Chet Holmgren, I find this point spread too inflated given the situation and Toronto's skill level.
The Raptors have come on to win eight of their last 12 games. They have covered 58 percent of their games this season.
It's easy to see why the oddsmaker is so strong on Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 3-0 on their homestand with blowout victories against the Kings, Bucks and Suns. Holmgren returns for the first time since suffering a pelvic fracture nearly three months ago.
Toronto just suffered its worst loss of the season, 138-107, to the Grizzlies two days ago.
So the Raptors should have motivation after that embarrassing defeat. They also have revenge. Holmgren figures to be rusty, too, after being out for so long.
But the biggest factor in Toronto's favor is the situation. Not only are the Thunder fat and happy, but they have a much bigger game tomorrow night on the road against the Grizzlies. Memphis has the second best record in the West behind Oklahoma City.
So the backdoor could swing wide open if the Raptors need it during the final few minutes when the Thunder surely would be resting starters if holding a big lead.
|
02-06-25 |
William & Mary v. Drexel -145 |
Top |
66-86 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
Drexel holds several key edges here besides home-court in this Colonial Athletic Association matchup. The Dragons are a far superior defensive and rebounding team than William & Mary.
The Dragons rank in the top 48 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They've held three of their last five opponents to 55 or fewer points.
William & Mary ranks 304th defensively, permitting 10 more points per game than Drexel. The Tribe has allowed an average of 82.4 points in their last five games. They have dropped their last two road games, while the Dragons have won and covered their past two home games.
|
02-05-25 |
Bucks v. Hornets OVER 219 |
Top |
112-102 |
Loss |
-108 |
16 h 16 m |
Show
|
The Bucks and Hornets have met twice this season. The Hornets won, 115-114, at home for a total of 229 points during the first meeting in mid-November. The Bucks got revenge, 125-119, at home for a total of 244 points a week later.
Now the teams are meeting for a third time and the total opened lower than the closing line of the first two matchups.
Perhaps the oddsmaker was influenced by Milwaukee scoring only 96 points against the Thunder in its last game two days ago. The Thunder is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. The Bucks also rested all of their best players in what was a give-up spot.
The Hornets surrender eight more points per game than Oklahoma City and the Bucks should have most, if not all, of their key players back on the court. Even if they don't, I still like the Over believing this total is too short.
The Bucks are a top-12 scoring team. They rank No. 2 in 3-point shooting. Milwaukee was averaging 122.1 in its last 10 games before their matchup against the Thunder.
Charlotte just surrendered 124 points to the Wizards in a 10-point loss last night. The Bucks rank 15th defensively permitting an average of 112.8 points a game. That average shoots up to 131.5 points if you go by Milwaukee's last four games.
|
02-05-25 |
Navy v. Boston University -125 |
|
65-87 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
Going into the Patriot League for this one where Boston University is hosting Navy.
Boston University is the better defensive team and has won and covered its last six home games. The Terriers are 11-12 overall.
Navy is 8-15 overall.
Boston is the much stronger rebounding team, ranking ninth in the nation in defensive rebounding.
|
02-04-25 |
Heat -3.5 v. Bulls |
Top |
124-133 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Bulls have signaled their intention to tank trading Zack LaVine, their best player. More Chicago players could be gone soon, too. All in all, it's going to be tough for the shorthanded Bulls to have their focus and rotation in order. Chicago is just 3-9 in its last dozen game and 1-5 in its last six home games with that victory occurring against the Wizards. The Heat are back on track after getting some closure from the Jimmy Butler situation. Only a loss to the Cavaliers keeps the Heat from having a four-game win streak. The Heat buried the Bulls by 18 points when they last played at Chicago.
|
02-04-25 |
Purdue -7.5 v. Iowa |
|
90-81 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
Iowa ranks 332nd defensively giving up 78.5 points per game. The Hawkeyes also are 347th in defensive field goal percentage. And that was with star center Owen Freeman, their leading rebounder and one of the top shot blockers in the country. No Freeman, no chance for the Hawkeyes here against this strong of an opponent. Purdue trails Michigan State by half-a-game for the lead in the Big Ten with a 9-2 conference record. The Boilermakers average nearly 78 points a game. They give up 10 fewer points per game than the Hawkeyes. The Boilermakers have won four consecutive Big Ten road games with their winning margin being 14 points. Freeman also was Iowa's leading scorer. Purdue has the best defensive turnover rate in the Big Ten.
|
02-04-25 |
Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green -6.5 |
|
77-84 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
Northern Illinois has yet to win a road game this season in 11 tries. The Huskies are a terrible shooting team ranking 333rd in the country. Their defense isn't good either as they rank 305th in scoring defense and 327th in 3-point defense. Bowling Green is in stop-the-pain mode having lost five in a row. The Falcons, though, were underdogs in the last four of those defeats. The Falcons shoot much better than Northern Illinois and can take advantage of any sloppy ball handling ranking 135th in steals per defensive possession.
|
02-03-25 |
Wizards v. Hornets -4 |
Top |
124-114 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Hornets are a bottom-tier team. But they are upper echelon when compared to the 7-41 Wizards. This isn't too many points for the Hornets to lay, playing at home after a tough, 107-104, home loss to the Nuggets this past Saturday in which they led by four points with less than a minute left.
The Wizards halted a 16-game losing streak with a 105-103 road win against the Timberwolves this past Saturday. That put Washington's road record at 2-21. The Wizards have won back-to-back games only once this season - and that was back in October.
The Hornets' front-court received a big boost with center Mark Williams returning from a foot injury. He had 20 points and 15 rebounds against the Nuggets.
|
02-02-25 |
Grizzlies +4 v. Bucks |
Top |
132-119 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 57 m |
Show
|
I'm attracted to the better team getting points especially when the situation and statistical matchup favor the underdog.
That's the case in this matchup where the Grizzlies try to make it seven straight wins against the Bucks. Memphis blew out Milwaukee, 122-99, at home back in late October in the first meeting between the team's this season.
The Bucks showed fatigue getting blown out by the Spurs two days ago. That was the conclusion of a four-game, seven-day road trip for Milwaukee. The Bucks had to fly back for this home game and they will take off for Oklahoma City to play the Thunder on Monday. So the Bucks' focus and concentration might not be fully there.
Memphis is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league ranking fifth on offense and seventh defensively. The Grizzlies also hold a rebounding edge on the Bucks. Milwaukee will be without Bobby Portis, its second-leading rebounder. That's good news for Memphis big men Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey.
|
02-01-25 |
Gonzaga v. St. Mary's +2 |
Top |
58-62 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 7 m |
Show
|
Gonzaga has a well-earned great reputation. But the Bulldogs are not the class of the West Coast Conference. St. Mary's is with the record and statistics to prove it. The Gaels should not be a home 'dog to Gonzaga.
St. Mary's is unbeaten in nine WCC games. The Gaels are 19-3 overall. Gonzaga is 16-6 overall, 9-13 ATS and is 7-2 in the WCC with losses to Oregon State, 97-89, and to Santa Clara at home, 103-99, on Jan. 18.
The Gaels, who are 11-1 at home, just defeated Santa Clara, 67-54, on the road this past Wednesday. St. Mary's defeated Gonzaga in two of three meetings last season, including in the conference tournament, 69-60.
Gonzaga is the No. 2 scoring team in the nation. However, St. Mary's is the superior defensive and rebounding team. The Gaels give up 10 points fewer per game than the Bulldogs ranking seventh in the country defensively. The Gaels also are the top rebounding team in the nation with a team total rebounding percentage of 57.6 percent.
Gonzaga's 3-point shooting percentage drops seven percent when it plays on the road.
Bottom line: Wrong team favored.
|
02-01-25 |
Heat +2.5 v. Spurs |
|
105-103 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
Miami is the superior defensive team and is in a good situational spot.
The Heat last played this past Wednesday. They won't play again until Tuesday. So Miami should have its full focus. The team has closure on Jimmy Butler now for better or worse. The rested Heat should be fully motivated after getting blown out by the Cavaliers, losing by 20 points in their last game.
The Spurs, on the other hand, are feeling fat and happy after blowing out the Bucks at home last night. This marks their third game in four days. Remember the Spurs just returned from overseas last weekend.
Miami dominated San Antonio when the teams met on Jan. 19. The Heat outscored the Spurs by 18 points in the paint in their, 128-107, home victory.
|
01-31-25 |
Bucks -130 v. Spurs |
Top |
118-144 |
Loss |
-130 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
The Spurs sure looked like they weren't over their jet lag in a double-digit loss to the Clippers at home two days ago after playing in Paris last weekend.
San Antonio is now four games under .500 for the first time this season. That's what losing eight of their last 10 games will do.
I'm going to fade the Spurs at this small price with the Bucks, who are 9-3 in their last 12 games. Milwaukee, however, is off a bad loss to the Trail Blazers this past Tuesday. The Bucks should have all hands on deck, including Damian Lillard. They won't lack motivation off that loss to Portland.
The Bucks buried the Spurs, 121-105, at home on Jan. 8 in the first meeting.
|
01-30-25 |
Magic v. Blazers OVER 212 |
|
90-119 |
Loss |
-112 |
9 h 20 m |
Show
|
I find this total too short given the current form of these two teams.
Orlando has recently gotten healthy. Because of that the Magic are producing more points. They are averaging 116 points in regulation during their past two games. This total is too low for the Magic with both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner back playing. It's an added bonus if Jalen Suggs can go, too.
Portland just put up 125 points against the Bucks and 108 points versus the Thunder during its past two games, both at home. The Thunder are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, while the Bucks rank 10th defensively.
|
01-30-25 |
South Dakota State v. North Dakota State OVER 155 |
|
72-62 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
These Summit League teams play fast and loose. South Dakota State has scored 80 or more points in seven of its last nine games. That's no surprise since the Jackrabbits average 80 points a game.
North Dakota State has scored at least 80 points in eight of its past 10 games. Again, no surprise since the Bison average 82.6 points a game.
No team in the country is more accurate in their 3-point shooting than the Bison, too. North Dakota State is hitting 40.1 percent of its shots from beyond the arc.
|
01-29-25 |
Thunder -9.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
109-116 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 5 m |
Show
|
Big favorites can get a little lazy this time of the year in the NBA with the All-Star break not too far away in mid-February.
But I don't see this as a problem for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have the best point spread record in the league at 29-13-2 (69%).
Not only are the Thunder 15 games better than the Warriors in the loss column, but the situation lays out well for them even being the visitor.
The Warriors got away with resting Stephen Curry and his sore knees against the Jazz on Tuesday night in a 114-103 victory. Curry is likely to return here, but the Warriors still are missing two key injured players, Draymond Green and third-leading scorer Jonathan Kuminga.
Golden State has lost and failed to cover during three of the past four times it played without rest. The Warriors were merely a .500 team at home until beating the hapless Jazz.
The Thunder have been idle since Sunday. After this game, they won't play again until Saturday. So Oklahoma, the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, should have its full focus. The Thunder won't be taking the Warriors lightly either after losing to them at home back in November.
|
01-29-25 |
St. Mary's -3.5 v. Santa Clara |
|
67-54 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
I respect Santa Clara. You don't beat Gonzaga on its home floor and not be good as the Broncos did, 103-99, 11 days ago.
But I have more respect for St. Mary's because of its current form, defense and rebounding.
The Gaels have won eight in a row. Santa Clara just lost by 14 points on the road to Oregon State four days ago.
St. Mary's ranks seventh defensively. Santa Clara rates 269th defensively, allowing 13 more points per game than St. Mary's. The Gaels also hold a huge rebounding edge ranking seventh in offensive rebounds and ninth in defensive rebounding.
|
01-29-25 |
Clippers -3 v. Spurs |
|
128-116 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 23 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are poised to make a move even though they lost, 111-109, on the road to the Suns two days ago. LA nearly pulled the game out after trailing by 11 points with 2:43 left. A big takeaway was Kawhi Leonard playing a season-high 28 minutes.
San Antonio has only won twice in its last nine games. The Spurs also are 2-7 ATS during this span.
This is the Spurs' first game since their Paris trip ended with a 136-98 loss to the Pacers this past Saturday. It usually takes at least a few days to get past jet lag after being in Europe. So this could factor against the Spurs.
|
01-29-25 |
Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 230 |
|
119-133 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 56 m |
Show
|
This total is based more on perception than reality.
The Pacers haven't been that high scoring lately. If you remove their last game against the Spurs in Paris this past Saturday, the Pacers are averaging 111.5 points in their last six games.
Detroit is averaging only 106.2 points in its past four games. The Pistons remain without Jaden Ivey. He's their second-leading scorer at 17.6 points a game. This has put a lot of pressure on Cade Cunningham to carry the offense. Cunningham may be pressing as he's shooting 42 percent during his last five games.
Indiana has held opponents to 102 or fewer points in five of its last seven games.
The Pacers may not have their full legs having been home for just a few days since returning from Paris. The Pistons don't figure to push tempo since this is their finale of a five-game road trip that began nine days ago.
|
01-28-25 |
Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 230 |
Top |
103-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
There's just not enough offense here with too many key players out for the Jazz and Warriors to go Over this total.
Utah isn't looking to go up-tempo after playing last night in high altitude at home. The Jazz are averaging 102 points in five games this season when they played without rest, never once exceeding 105 points.
The Jazz rank 20th in scoring, while the Warriors have the 10th best defense.
Golden State is averaging 104.9 points in its last 10 games discounting a 131-106 victory against the Bulls. The Warriors will be missing Draymond Green and third-leading scorer Jonathan Kuminga.
|
01-27-25 |
Pelicans -105 v. Raptors |
|
104-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
Now that they are healthy with the exception of Dejounte Murray, the Pelicans are a better team than the Raptors in my view. The Raptors could prove vulnerable in this spot returning home triumphantly after posting a pair of upset road victories against the Hawks. New Orleans has revenge for a blowout home loss suffered to Toronto when missing Zion Williamson. This is the Pelicans' finale of a three-game road swing. They've lost the first two games of the trip falling to the Hornets and Grizzlies. Prior to their last game, the Pelicans had produced at least 119 points in seven consecutive games. The Pelicans should have plenty of motivation, not just for revenge but to avoid an 0-3 road trip.
|
01-27-25 |
Magic v. Heat OVER 207.5 |
Top |
119-125 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
It has been three months, but the Magic finally have their best starting lineup in place. That lineup of Paulo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr. and Kentavius Caldwell-Pope helped Orlando defeat Detroit, 121-113, this past Saturday night. This low total is more indicative of the Magic's low-scoring not having their best lineup going. That's changed now with Suggs' return after missing 10 games due to a back injury. Banchero and Wagner, who combine to average 50 points, are regaining their shooting touches. Miami has allowed a whopping average of 124 points in its last five home games. The Heat are expected to have Jimmy Butler back from suspension. The Heat are anxious to atone for their last home games, a loss to the lowly Trail Blazers six days ago.
|
01-27-25 |
Lakers v. Hornets +6 |
|
112-107 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 35 m |
Show
|
Having defeated the Celtics at home and Warriors on the road during the past four days, the Lakers are in a letdown spot facing the Hornets. Charlotte is having its best six-game stretch of the season, winning four of their past six games. The Hornets blew out the Pelicans at home two days ago in their last game. They have surrendered 105 points or fewer in three of their last four games.
|
01-25-25 |
Connecticut v. Xavier -135 |
Top |
72-76 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
This just might be Xavier's season if the Musketeers want to make the NCAA Tournament. It's that important of a game to them following a road overtime loss to St. John's and a road game against Creighton looming on Wednesday. The Musketeers are on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble at 1-6 in Quadrant I contests.
The key question is Xavier good enough to beat the two-time defending national champion Huskies? The oddsmaker certainly believes so, opening the Musketeers as the favorite despite the uncertain status of fourth-leading scorer Dailyn Swain.
I do, too. Connecticut is not playing that well. The Huskies would be 1-3 if not for getting past Butler, 80-78, in overtime as a 13 1/2-point home favorite this past Tuesday. Connecticut's history is to peak in February and March.
Xavier nearly upset the Huskies on the road in the first meeting on Dec. 18. Connecticut needed to make 20-of-21 free throws to escape Xavier, 94-89, in overtime. Xavier did not have Zach Freemantle in that game, while the Huskies did have freshman star Liam McNeeley. Freemantle probably is Xavier's best player, leading the team in rebounding and averaging 16.6 points. McNeeley remains out with a high ankle sprain. He scored 14 points against the Musketeers.
Xavier is 9-2 at home and will have a sold-out Cintas Center for this matchup. It is a strong home-court. The Musketeers certainly are capable. They upset Marquette on the road as a 10-point 'dog just two games ago.
The Musketeers hold a huge 3-point shooting edge ranking 27th in the country at 38.2 percent. Connecticut is one of the worst in the country at defending from the perimeter ranking an embarrassing 353rd in 3-point defense.
|
01-24-25 |
St Bonaventure +12 v. VCU |
Top |
61-75 |
Loss |
-108 |
14 h 31 m |
Show
|
VCU is playing well with five straight victories. But this line is too high.
St. Bonaventure defeated the Rams, 77-75, at home on New Year's Eve.
The Bonnies are 7-2 ATS in road/neutral site games.
VCU ranks 12th defensively allowing just 62.6 points a game. St. Bonaventure, though, is right there with the Rams holding foes to an average of 63.6 points a game. VCU's offensive superiority isn't enough to cover this high of a point spread.
|
01-22-25 |
Pistons v. Hawks -140 |
Top |
114-104 |
Loss |
-140 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
It has been five years since the Pistons last beat the Hawks in Atlanta. I don't see the Pistons ending their seven-game road losing streak to the Hawks today.
The Hawks are going to be fired-up after having their three-game win streak snapped by the Knicks, 119-110, at New York two days ago.
The Pistons, on the other hand, are fat and happy following an upset road victory against the Rockets this past Monday.
Yes, Detroit is much improved from recent past seasons. However, the Pistons still are just an average offensive team and slightly below average club. They rank 26th in 3-point defense.
The Hawks are the sixth-highest scoring team in the NBA. They are averaging 127.6 points in their past three home games.
|
01-21-25 |
76ers +13.5 v. Nuggets |
|
109-144 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
I don't know if I can buy any lower on the 76ers than now. They've lost six in a row and failed to cover in their last eight games. Joel Embiid is once again out.
Maybe the 76ers get back Paul George, Andre Drummond and Guerschon Yabusele. But even if they don't, I'm going to take this many points with the 76ers knowing they'll have Tyrese Maxey and catch the Nuggets in a flat spot.
Denver is fat and happy after sweeping a two-game Florida road trip beating the Heat and then Magic two days ago. This is just the Nuggets' second home game in 10 days. I doubt they'll have their full concentration and motivation.
|
01-21-25 |
Minnesota v. Iowa -9 |
Top |
72-67 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
Iowa averages nearly 20 points more per game than Minnesota and plays much better at home. Minnesota has yet to win away from home going 0-5 in away and neutral-site court games. That includes blowout road losses to Wisconsin and Indiana, a team Iowa defeated by 25 points at home.
The spot here sets up for an Iowa double-digit victory. The Hawkeyes won't lack motivation returning home after losing West Coast games to UCLA and Southern Cal last week. The Hawkeyes are 10-1 at home with their lone loss occurring to third-ranked Iowa State.
The Gophers are averaging just 65.2 points in regulation during their last five games.
Only two teams in the country average more than Iowa's 88.4 points a game - and the Hawkeyes are at their offensive-best at home.
|
01-20-25 |
Pistons v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 |
|
107-96 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
Only three teams give up fewer points per game than the Rockets, who hold opponents to an average of 107.9. Houston also ranks third in defensive field goal percentage.
The Pistons rank in the middle in scoring defense. However, their defensive efficiency rating shoots up to sixth going by just the last 10 games.
This is a very early start time because of Martin Luther King Day. That's a plus, too, for the Under.
|
01-18-25 |
Cavs -5.5 v. Wolves |
Top |
124-117 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 34 m |
Show
|
Kudos to the motivated Timberwolves, who upset the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, 116-99, on Friday night. The Timberwolves' reward? They have to immediately fly back home to take on an angry Cavaliers squad that was humiliated by the Thunder on national TV this past Thursday.
The rested Cavaliers have been itching to redeem themselves after losing, 134-114, to the Thunder in a game that wasn't even as close as the 20-point margin. Cleveland pulled its starters out early of the blowout in anticipation of this matchup. No Cavalier starter logged more than 25 minutes in that loss with three playing fewer than 21 minutes.
You have to go back to November to find the last time the Cavaliers lost consecutive games.
Minnesota's victory against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden was emotional because of Julius Randle's return to New York. Randle was one of four Minnesota starters to log at least 34 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves playing without rest, but this marks their third game in four days having lost at home to the Warriors by one point this past Wednesday.
|
01-18-25 |
San Jose State +13.5 v. Nevada |
|
64-75 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 4 m |
Show
|
Nevada isn't playing well enough to lay this large of a number. The Wolf Pack are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They've played two bad teams in their last two games, Air Force and Fresno State. The Wolf Pack defeated Air Force by six points as a 19-point home favorite and beat Fresno State in overtime as a 12 1/2-point road favorite.
The Spartans are better than Air Force and Fresno State, who are a combined 1-13 in the Mountain West Conference. They rank third in the conference in 3-point accuracy and are 42nd in free throw percentage.
Nevada has allowed nearly 38 percent from beyond the arc in its last 10 games and are 289th in free throw percentage. These are far from ideal numbers when laying a hefty number like this.
|
01-16-25 |
Montana v. Weber State OVER 146.5 |
|
63-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
The Big Sky Conference is not known for defense. These two teams are an example why.
Weber State has permitted 80 or more points in three of its last four games.
the Wildcats, though, are No. 2 in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency.
Montana plays fast and ranks 51st in field goal percentage. The Grizzlies, though, are 286th defensively.
|
01-16-25 |
Cavs v. Thunder -120 |
Top |
114-134 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
Only once during the last four weeks have the Thunder lost. That defeat occurred on the road to the Cavaliers, 129-122, eight days ago.
The Cavaliers have become a great team. But Oklahoma City trumps them being home and in a rare revenge spot.
The Thunder also are the better defensive team. They lead the NBA in defense. Oklahoma City gives up five points fewer per game than Cleveland.
|
01-15-25 |
Mavs -130 v. Pelicans |
Top |
116-119 |
Loss |
-130 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
Tough spot here for the Pelicans. New Orleans just beat the Bulls, 119-113, last night to conclude a three-game, five-day road trip. New Orleans went 2-1 on the trip, however, they have had no chance to catch up on things at home before hosting the Mavericks. This will be the Pelicans' sixth game in nine days.
New Orleans is 1-9 in its last 10 home contests.
The Mavericks have been struggling without Luka Doncic, who remains out with a calf injury. They just dropped two games to the Nuggets, both by double-digits. Now, though, the Mavericks drop way down in class and they at least have Kyrie Irving back.
Irving had missed the previous five games due to a bulging disc in his back. He was cold against the Nuggets last night missing 14 of 18 shots from the floor.
Irving should have the rust off now. The Mavericks buried New Orleans, 132-91, at home when the teams met for the first time this season on Nov. 19.
|
01-14-25 |
Suns v. Hawks +5.5 |
|
117-122 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
These two teams met five days ago in Phoenix. The Suns shot 58 percent from the floor to win, 123-115. The Hawks haven't played since.
So Atlanta will be well rested and motivated to get revenge. Hawks coach Quin Snyder has had ample time to adjust to the Suns' hot-shooting. Phoenix makes 47 percent of its field goals on the season.
This marks the Suns' third game in four days and sixth game in nine days. It's their first away contest in a week. Phoenix has lost 10 of its past dozen road games.
The Suns also haven't won in Atlanta in more than 10 years.
|
01-14-25 |
Georgetown v. St. John's UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
58-63 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
Georgetown ranks 254th in field goal percentage. The Hoyas haven't reached 70 points in each of their last three games, averaging 65 points during this span.
The Hoyas are about defense, ranking 13th in defensive field goal percentage. Just 25 teams give up fewer points per game than Georgetown. St. John's is one of the poorest 3-point shooting teams in the country.
St. John's has held its last four foes to an average of 64.7 points a game. The Red Storm rank seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency and in shot blocking.
|
01-13-25 |
Pistons +8.5 v. Knicks |
|
124-119 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
Sure it's a huge break for the Pistons if Jalen Brunson doesn't play after tweaking his shoulder in New York's,140-106, national TV home win against the Bucks on Sunday.
But I'm fully expecting Brunson to play. The Pistons have reached the point, though, where they are good enough to hang with the Knicks on the road especially with New York in letdown mode and carrying a high fatigue rating in action for the fourth time in six days and playing without rest.
Since Dec. 27, the Knicks have played without rest twice. They are 0-2 ATS in those games losing to the Bulls by 13 points and escaping the 6-31 Wizards by four points in overtime.
Detroit is 11- 4 in its last 15 games. This includes five victories in its last seven road games. Detroit is just one game out of the No. 6 playoff seed in the East. Only once in their last 13 games, have the Pistons lost by more than seven points and that was against the Nuggets.
Detroit and New York last met on Dec. 7 at Madison Square Garden. The Pistons won, 120-111, despite Brunson scoring 31 points. It was the fourth time in their last five meetings at New York that the Pistons covered on the road against the Knicks.
|
01-06-25 |
Blazers v. Pistons UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
115-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
Both Portland and Detroit are off impressive underdog victories. Each team has looked good defensively. The Pistons reach .500 with a victory here. So I'm anticipating more of an intense, defensive game than what this point spread total indicates.
This is Detroit's third game without guard Jaden Ivey, their second-leading scorer at 17.6 points a game. He's out with a broken leg. Ausar Thompson replaced Ivey. He's more defense than offense as evidenced by his six steals in Detroit's, 119-105, victory against the Timberwolves this past Saturday.
The Pistons have held their past three opponents to an average of 98.3 points. Portland ranks 25th in scoring, 25th in field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point accuracy.
Portland defeated the Bucks, 105-102, this past Saturday. That was 10 points below the Bucks' season average. And, yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo played.
Detroit is a slightly below offensive team - and that was having Ivey.
|
01-03-25 |
Grizzlies +3.5 v. Kings |
|
133-138 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
No Ja Morant, but I'm not going to turn down the Grizzlies in an underdog spot against the 15-19 Kings.
The Kings have gotten a little bump since making a coaching change going from Mike Brown to interim coach Doug Christie posting home wins against the 76ers and Mavericks. But that's not going to last much longer.
Memphis has the fourth-best record in the NBA. The Grizzlies have won 15 of their last 19 games. That includes winning five of their last seven road games.
The Grizzlies have the depth, coaching and overall talent to overcome Morant's loss here to beat a mediocre-to-bad Sacramento team that is fat and happy.
|
01-02-25 |
Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 225 |
|
106-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 17 m |
Show
|
The Lakers beat the Trail Blazers, 107-98, at home on Dec. 8. That was a combined total of 205 points.
So I find this total to be too large.
The Lakers have stepped up their defensive efforts holding their past nine foes to an average of 108.6 points. Portland ranks 25th in scoring.
LA is going through a transition period offensively after recently trading D'Angelo Russell.
|
01-02-25 |
Memphis v. Florida Atlantic OVER 161 |
|
90-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
High total here? Yes. But expect a track meet. These teams are high scoring and like to run.
Memphis averages nearly 80 points a game. The Tigers are the 10th-most accurate 3-point shooting team in the country. Florida Atlantic is a bottom-10 defense when it comes to defending against 3-pointers.
The Owls, though, average 84.8 points a game while giving up an average of 77.6 points. They also rank in the top-25 in terms of tempo.
|
12-27-24 |
Mavs +1 v. Suns |
Top |
98-89 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
I like the spot here from a Dallas standpoint. The Mavericks are off a home loss on Christmas Day to the Timberwolves, while the Suns upset the Nuggets at home on Christmas Day.
Dallas is the better team and is a slight underdog.
The Mavericks won't have injured Luka Doncic. But that's somewhat negated with Devin Booker, the Suns' second-leading scorer, out with a groin injury.
Dallas has the better defense and has proven it can score and win without Doncic, averaging 117 points during his absence. The Mavericks are 6-2 when Doncic hasn't played.
Until defeating the Nuggets, the Suns had gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
|
12-26-24 |
Hornets -4.5 v. Wizards |
Top |
110-113 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
|
Once a season it might be permissible to lay points with the Hornets on the road. That time is now.
The desperate Hornets, fresh off a players-only meeting, are playing the Wizards.
Washington has the worst record in the NBA at 4-23. The Wizards are 2-21 in their last 23 games. Each of their last 15 defeats have been by double-digits.
Making it so tough for the Wizards is they have multiple injuries. Kevin Kuzman, their second-leading scorer, is out. So is big man Marvin Bagley III. Several rotation players are questionable, including their fourth and sixth-leading scorers.
I get that Charlotte is no prize being 7-22. But the Hornets are the healthier team and have revenge for a 123-114 road loss to the Wizards last Thursday. Charlotte shot just 41 percent from the floor and 19 percent from 3-point range in that game. Washington, by contrast, made 49 percent of its field goal attempts and hit 40 percent of its 3-pointers.
|
12-25-24 |
Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 222 |
Top |
105-99 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Timberwolves are averaging just 104 points in their last 10 games. They haven't scored more than 109 points in regulation during their last 14 games.
The Mavericks are an above average defensive team. Only five teams have a better defensive field goal percentage than the Mavericks. Dallas is in good defensive form, too, holding its last two opponents - Trail Blazers and Clippers - to an average of 102.5 points. Both of those were home games. The Under has cashed in 64 percent of the Mavericks' home games.
Minnesota gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the NBA at 107.2. If you go just by the last 10 games, the Timberwolves rank first in the league in defensive efficiency.
|
12-21-24 |
Cal-Irvine -6.5 v. Duquesne |
Top |
54-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
Cal Irvine is 10-1 and has revenge for a 66-62 loss to Duquesne last season.
Cal Irvine is much better than the Dukes this season. The Anteaters shoot better, are the superior rebounding team and make 84 percent of their free throws compared to the Dukes, who make less than 65 percent of their free throws.
The Anteaters are 4-1 on the road while the Dukes have dropped four of their past five home contests.
|
12-18-24 |
Butler v. Marquette -13.5 |
Top |
70-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
Marquette has had four days to stew about a loss to Dayton in its last game.
The Golden Eagles are far superior to Butler and I want them off a loss playing at home.
Marquette is 7-0 at home, 5-1-1 ATS. The Golden Eagles' average home win has been by 23.7 points.
Butler has a losing point spread record. The Bulldogs lost their last game to Wisconsin, 83-74, at a neutral site. That was their third straight defeat. Early in the season, they lost at home to Austin Peay as a 17-point favorite.
By contrast, Marquette beat Wisconsin, 88-74, at home.
Class difference, home-court and motivation should all factor in Marquette covering this number.
|
12-18-24 |
Albany v. Sacred Heart OVER 154.5 |
|
74-66 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 34 m |
Show
|
There were 172 combined points scored when these two teams met last season. I see a similar total being produced this season so I like the Over.
Albany is weak guarding against the 3-pointer ranking 338th. Making 3-pointers is a strength of Sacred Heart as it ranks 30th in the country.
Both teams play at a fast tempo, too. Sacred Heart has surrendered 81 points or more in six of its 10 games.
|
12-13-24 |
Weber State -145 v. Utah Tech |
Top |
73-71 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
I like Weber State in stop-the-pain mode in this spot. The Wildcats were favored in their last two games against North Dakota and North Dakota State. They lost both times.
I have the Wildcats ranked much higher than Utah Tech than this short spread. I see the Wildcats playing with much intensity here. They had won three in a row prior to losing to the North Dakota schools.
Utah Tech has lost seven of its last eight games and is a horrible rebounding and shooting team. The Trailblazers also are weak defensively.
|
12-13-24 |
Pacers v. 76ers -6 |
|
121-107 |
Loss |
-114 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
The 76ers are finding their groove this month with Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey all healthy again.
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in its last five games and fully rested having last played on Sunday.
The bar is set low here for Philly. Indiana also will enter the matchup well-rested, but with its confidence at low ebb. The Pacers have lost five of their last six games with the last one being a four-point home loss to the Hornets as an 11 1/2-point favorite.
Defense is again a problem for the Pacers as they rank 26th in scoring defense and 29th in defensive field goal percentage.
Indiana also has one of the worst point spread marks in its last 15 games going 2-12-1 ATS for 14 percent.
|
12-12-24 |
Bethune-Cookman v. Virginia -16.5 |
|
41-59 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
Virginia isn't the defensive juggernaut of past seasons. The Cavaliers haven't been getting consistent point guard play either. Those are issues.
But those issues shouldn't stop the Cavaliers from covering this number against a bad Bethune-Cookman team in what is a huge step down for Virginia.
Bethune-Cookman is a 2-6 team from the SWAC. The Wildcats have played three major conference teams - Texas Tech, Nebraska and Minnesota. They lost those games by an average of 18.3 points.
Virginia returns home with urgency having lost its previous two games to SMU and Florida, both on the road. The Cavaliers are 4-0 at home. This is just the type of opponent they need to face right now to get their confidence up.
|
12-11-24 |
Hawks v. Knicks -7.5 |
Top |
108-100 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
The Hawks' 28th defensive rating caught up to them in their last game. Atlanta lost, 141-111, to the Nuggets at home this past Sunday.
I don't see the Knicks beating the Hawks by 30 points. Just double-digits.
New York is by far the superior defensive team - allowing an average of 103 points in its last six games - at home and much the healthier team.
Atlanta has four of its top five scorers banged-up. Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic may not even be able to play.
The Knicks are 5-1 in their last six games. Their past six wins at home have come by an average of 18.3 points.
|
12-10-24 |
Magic v. Bucks -7 |
Top |
109-114 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
There is just one NBA team who is unbeaten at home - Orlando. Unfortunately for the Magic this game is at Milwaukee. The Magic are 2-6 ATS as a road underdog. They have really struggled in Milwaukee, too, losing 19 of the last 21 times there. Orlando last beat the Bucks at Milwaukee in 2019.
The Bucks are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton are expected to play in this Emirates NBA Cup quarterfinals matchup. Orlando, however, is without its two best players, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
The Magic are averaging 101.5 points in their last four away from home games. The Bucks have produced at least 122 points in four of their past five home games.
Milwaukee has too much firepower for Orlando to stay within this number.
|
12-09-24 |
Minnesota v. Indiana UNDER 140.5 |
Top |
67-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is Indiana's opening Big Ten Conference game. I'm expecting a lot of intensity from the Hooisers. Indiana coach Mike Woodson wasn't pleased with the lack of energy in his team's last game, a 76-57 home win against Miami of Ohio this past Friday.
Minnesota is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation. The Gophers rank 342nd in scoring and 351st in free throw percentage. They also are well below par in offensive rebounding. Because of their lack of scoring, the Gophers play at a slow tempo ranking 354th in total possessions per game.
Indiana is holding opponents to 40 percent shooting from the floor.
Minnesota's only chance is to slow tempo, relying on a defense that ranks 17th in the nation giving up 62 points a game.
So I envision a lower-scoring game than what the oddsmaker does.
|
12-06-24 |
Lakers v. Hawks -5 |
|
132-134 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
Time to pile on the Lakers. LA is 2-6 in its last eight games with the lone victories during this span coming against the Jazz and Spurs, whose combined record is 15-28.
The Lakers are at low ebb right now. They have covered just one of their last 10 games and already this week have lost to the Timberwolves by 29 points and to the Heat by 41 points.
LeBron James is questionable with a foot injury and Anthony Davis is in a shooting slump missing 21 of his last 28 field goal attempts during the past two games.
The Hawks, by contrast, are playing their finest ball of the season with five straight victories. This includes double-digit victories against the Bucks and Cavaliers twice. Trae Young is getting plenty of help as the Hawks have improved their rotation depth and Jalen Johnson is having a big year.
|
12-05-24 |
Purdue v. Penn State -115 |
|
70-81 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a combination of Purdue being down from last season and Penn State looking highly improved after last season's 16-17 record in Mike Rhoades' first season.
The Nittany Lions are 7-1. All of their victories have been by double-digits. Their one loss was to Clemson on a neutral court. Penn State ranks fourth in scoring in the nation and third in field goal percentage.
Purdue has played one true road game this season - and lost, 76-58, to Marquette.
Penn State has much to prove in this home game. I look for the Nittany Lions to get the job done with a victory.
|
12-04-24 |
Ohio State v. Maryland -5.5 |
Top |
59-83 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
Maryland is 7-1 with its lone loss coming to 15th-ranked Marquette by four points. The Terrapins are better than Ohio State and playing at home. That combination should mean a point spread cover here.
Ohio State needs to shake off a 91-90 home loss to underdog Pittsburgh this past Friday. The Panthers pulled the upset on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Ohio State is a bad free throw shooting team and it bit them against Pittsburgh.
Maryland is a much better free throw shooting team than the Buckeyes and the Terrapins commit four fewer fouls per game.
The Terrapins have revenge, too, for a 79-75 double overtime road loss to Ohio State last February.
|
12-03-24 |
Cincinnati -3.5 v. Villanova |
|
60-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 59 m |
Show
|
I'm going to ride the Bearcats, who are 6-0 to start the season. Cincinnati's competition hasn't been great, but I rate the Bearcats much better than Villanova.
The Wildcats haven't played great opponents either, but are just 4-4 with losses to Columbia, St. Joe's, Virginia and Maryland.
Villanova is vulnerable from 3-point range ranking 311th in 3-point defense. Cincinnati is the most accurate shooting team in the nation hitting 53.6 percent from the floor. The Bearcats also rank No. 10th in 3-point shooting at 41.5 percent.
Cincinnati is very strong defensively, too, ranking third in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.
|
12-02-24 |
Pelicans v. Hawks -9.5 |
Top |
112-124 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans have lost eight in a row, five by 11 points or more. Their injured list is longer than my wife's grocery list. This marks the Pelicans' third game in four days days and second on consecutive days.
New Orleans' last three losses have been by an average of 23.3 points.
So I don't see the Pelicans being competitive against the Hawks given the situation and their lack of depth due to injuries.
Unlike the Pelicans, the Hawks are healthy and proven. Atlanta upset the Cavaliers twice last week sweeping a home-and-away series. The Hawks got their letdown game out of the way with a 3-point road win against the Hornets two days ago.
Atlanta is a top-10 scoring team. New Orleans is a way below average defensive team. The Hawks are coming on riding their first three-game win streak of the season. I don't see them slipping here against such an outmanned foe.
|
11-29-24 |
Cavs -5.5 v. Hawks |
|
101-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Cavaliers have short revenge for a 135-124 home loss to the underdog Hawks two days ago. Cleveland is by far the superior team. so I see the Cavaliers getting their revenge. Cleveland is 7-1 on the road as part of its overall 17-2 record. The Hawks are 8-11 and have a losing home record. They also are just 2-7 ATS in Atlanta. The Cavaliers lead the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. Their defense is down from past seasons, but is still above average. Atlanta ranks 28th defensively and is last in 3-point defense.
|
11-26-24 |
Loyola Marymount v. Belmont -120 |
Top |
77-63 |
Loss |
-120 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
Loyola Marymount and Belmont are meeting tonight in Mexico as part of the Cancun Challenge.
I trust Belmont's accurate shooting and am banking on Loyola Marymount's struggles against Division I opponents.
Belmont ranks 23rd in the country in field goal accuracy. The Bruins have won and covered their past three games.
The Lions are 0-3 against Division I foes this season. They have lost each of their past five non-conference games going back to last season. Loyola Marymount is coming off a 77-73 home loss to North Dakota as an 11-point favorite.
The Lions rank 337th in 3-point defense.
|
11-25-24 |
Knicks v. Nuggets UNDER 232 |
Top |
145-118 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
Expect an intense defensive game from the Knicks and Nuggets today. That's the way recent history has gone. The averaged combined score in the past four meetings between these teams is 216 points. The most points scored during any of the last four games in the series was 226.
The Knicks are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Tom Thibodeau is a highly-respected defensive coach. He can't be happy that New York has given up 121 points to the Jazz and 122 points to the Suns during the first two games of its road trip. The Knicks held the Wizards to 106 points and Nets to 104 in their two previous games before hitting the road.
New York hasn't had three bad defensive games in a row all season.
The Nuggets just held the Lakers to 102 points this past Saturday, which is 14 points below LA's season average. The Nuggets rank sixth in 3-point defense.
|
11-22-24 |
Nets +4.5 v. 76ers |
|
98-113 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
The Nets are one of the top point spread teams in the NBA at 10-4-1 ATS. The 76ers are the opposite. They have the worst point spread mark in the league at 3-11 ATS. Philadelphia has yet to win a game this season by six or more points. The 76ers won't have injured Paul George either. He's sidelined with a knee injury.
|
11-21-24 |
Magic v. Lakers -4.5 |
|
119-118 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
More than any other sport, the NBA is about situations and good spots.
This one sets up well for the Lakers. LA is 7-0 at home. The Magic are 2-7 on the road.
Orlando played the Clippers last night and lost, 104-93. While this isn't a travel spot for the Magic since both the Lakers and Clippers play at Staples Center, it is Orlando's third road game in four days. The Magic are taking on a hot Lakers squad that has won six consecutive games.
The Lakers have dominated the Magic, beating them in seven of the past eight games with five of the past six victories coming by at least six points.
The Magic are giving up the fewest points per game in the NBA, but really miss their superstar, injured Paolo Banchero. Orlando ranks 28th in scoring. The Magic have failed to score more than 98 points in three of their last four games.
|
11-21-24 |
Vanderbilt v. Nevada -3.5 |
Top |
73-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a neutral site matchup being played in Charleston, S.C. as part of the Charleston Classic. Power rating-wise, I have Nevada as the much superior team. So I'm backing the Wolf Pack.
Nevada has a huge size advantage, has played the stronger schedule and is a much better defensive team than Vanderbilt.
The Commodores are averaging 91.5 points, but have played only one semi-decent team and that was California. Their three other victories came against cupcakes. The Commodores have played one of the 15 easiest schedules in the country.
Vanderbilt is not highly thought of despite its 4-0 record. The Commodores were picked to finish last in the 16-team SEC in the league's preseason poll.
Nevada is a huge step-up for Vanderbilt. The Wolf Pack are well-balanced and more battle-tested. I expect them to have no problem covering this small number.
|
11-20-24 |
Idaho State +24.5 v. UCLA |
Top |
70-84 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 28 m |
Show
|
UCLA has rolled past three cupcakes at home. The one time this season the Bruins stepped up in class they lost to New Mexico, 72-64, as a short favorite at neutral site Henderson, Nev.
The Bruins are going to get better. But right now they are laying too many points against spunky Idaho State, which has been undervalued by the oddsmaker going 4-0 ATS.
UCLA fans are not giving the Bruins much home support. UCLA is averaging 4,694 fans, which ranks 17th out of the 18 Big Ten Conference teams in home attendance. Bruins fans don't get excited about bad matchups.
Idaho State has played Arizona State and USC close, easily covering both road games. The Bengals were 17 1/2-point road 'dogs to Arizona State and lost, 55-48, and were plus 24 at USC losing, 75-69, to the Trojans.
The Bengals lost as a road underdog to Fullerton and upset San Diego as a four-point road 'dog, 78-66. Idaho State is giving up just 64.2 points per game and is a solid rebounding team.
Will the Bengals beat UCLA? No. But they can keep this game closer than this lopsided point spread.
|
11-19-24 |
Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 235 |
Top |
117-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
Yes I get that these are the two highest scoring teams in the NBA. The Celtics will be aiming to deal the Cavaliers their first loss of the season.
It's maybe the biggest game of the early season so far - and I expect far more defensive intensity than a normal November game.
These two teams aren't all about offense. They each give up 111 points per game, which is above average.
The Cavaliers are the No. 2 defensive rebounding team in the league while the Celtics rank sixth in 3-point defense.
|
11-18-24 |
Warriors -4 v. Clippers |
Top |
99-102 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
Golden State isn't just 10-2. The Warriors also have the best point spread record in the Western Conference at 9-3.
The Warriors are 8-1 in their last nine games since getting upset at home by the Clippers on Oct. 27 as 9-point favorites.
Now the point spread from that game is cut in half and Golden State has revenge motivation and a good scheduling spot.
The Clippers beat the Jazz, 116-105, at home on Sunday. This is LA's third game in four days. Golden State was idle during the weekend.
LA has been up-and-down all season with a 6-7 record. Golden State is several levels above the Clippers.
|
11-16-24 |
Santa Clara v. Nevada -7.5 |
|
59-85 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 6 m |
Show
|
Look for a double-digit victory from Nevada as Santa Clara can't make 3-pointers, nor defend well against them.
The Broncos rank 328th in scoring defense, 308th in defensive field goal percentage and 350th in 3-point defense. Santa Clara just lost straight-up as a 15 1/2-point home favorite against North Dakota State.
Nevada has won and covered each of its first three games, all of which were played at home. The Wolf Pack held Weber State to 58 points and Washington to 53 points in their last two games.
|
11-15-24 |
Clippers +5 v. Rockets |
|
104-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 52 m |
Show
|
The teams just met two days ago in Houston. The point spread was very much in doubt until the Clippers didn't score during the final two minutes going cold at just the wrong time.
That was just the second time in the last 11 meetings the Clippers lost to the Rockets. LA also is 5-1 during its last six games in Houston.
The Clippers have beaten better teams than the Rockets on road owning victories against the Nuggets, Warriors and Kings.
Now the Clippers get short revenge on Houston. I think the Clippers win straight-up so getting points is a nice bonus.
|
11-13-24 |
Clippers +4.5 v. Rockets |
|
103-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
The Clippers have owned the Rockets going 9-1 against them during the last 10 meetings. The Clippers have won each of the last five times on the road versus Houston. The Clippers are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a road 'dog this season. They own road victories against the Nuggets, Warriors and Kings. That's impressive.
|
11-13-24 |
Pacers v. Magic |
|
90-94 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
Beating the crippled Pelicans, Wizards and Hornets is one thing. But now Orlando has to step up in class and take on the Pacers. They have to do this, too, without their leading scorer, injured Paulo Banchero.
Indiana is off an impressive victory against the Knicks. That was this past Sunday. So the Pacers will be rested.
|
11-12-24 |
Tarleton State +19 v. Florida State |
|
52-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
Florida State has other things on its mind than worrying about this outclassed foe. The Seminoles meet their in-state rival Florida in three days. That's the game they care about not this one. Tarleton State, though, can hang in based on its ball pressure. The Texans ranked in the top 40 in forcing turnovers per possession last season. They rated in the top 40 in that category, too, two seasons ago.
|
11-11-24 |
Kings v. Spurs +1 |
|
96-116 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
This spot sets up well for the Spurs playing at home against what should be a gassed Kings squad. Sacramento just knocked off the Suns in Phoenix in overtime last night. The Kings' four best players logged major minutes in that game - DeMar DeRozan 42.41 minutes, Keegan Murray 42:35, De'Aaron Fox 40:43 and Domantas Sabonis 38:49. It's not just playing without rest for the Kings. This marks their seventh game already in 11 days since the calendar turned to November. The Spurs are still in rebuilt mode. But they are capable, having a winning home point spread mark and straight-up home victories against the Timberwolves and Rockets. San Antonio's backcourt just got upgraded, too, with the return of Devin Vassell. He scored 18 points in his season debut in the Spurs' last game two days ago, which was a frustrating one-point home loss to the Jazz.
|
11-06-24 |
Magic v. Pacers -5 |
Top |
111-118 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
Just five games ago, the Magic beat the Pacers, 119-115, as a mid-sized home favorite. Paolo Banchero torched the Pacers for 50 points. Things are much different now just 10 days later. Banchero is out with an oblique injury and Orlando hasn't been the same. The Magic are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games. They are averaging 94.7 points in their past four games. Not helping matters for Orlando is center Wendell Carter Jr. also won't play because of a foot injury. Carter and Banchero are the Magic's two leading rebounders. Indiana played its finest game of the season two days ago in beating the Mavericks, 134-127, in Dallas. Orlando has lost its last three games by an average of 16.6 points. Look for the Pacers to get their revenge in a big way.
|
11-04-24 |
Lakers -7 v. Pistons |
|
103-115 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
After a tough early schedule, the Lakers draw the Pistons having had the weekend to rest and prepare.
Detroit, however, had to play Sunday. The Pistons were impressive in upsetting the Nets in Brooklyn, 106-92. It's a bad spot for the Pistons, who had three starters - including fragile star Cade Cunningham - go 35 minutes against the Nets. This also marks the Pistons' fifth game in eight days.
D'Angelo Russell was upgraded to probable after a minor foot injury giving the Lakers all their stars for this matchup.
I see a Lakers' blowout here.
|
11-04-24 |
New Hampshire v. Massachusetts -16 |
Top |
74-103 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
Frank Martin is one of the better college basketball coaches. Martin proved that again leading UMass to a 20-11 record last season. The Minutemen should be even better this season upgrading their frontcourt and returning a steady backcourt. UMass has too much defense for New Hampshire to handle. Expect a blowout with the Minutemen covering this large point spread. "Defensively, we're ahead of the game right now," Martin was quoted as saying. "It's the first time since I've been here where defensively we're ahead of the game." New Hampshire was 7-10 in away games last season. The Wildcats' major weakness is inconsistent scoring. They are at their worst against above average defenses, something they don't find that much playing in the America East Conference. UMass went 13-3 at home last season. The Minutemen return point guard Rahsool Diggins and they brought in height and athleticism to their forecourt with transfers Malek Abdelgowad (Murray State), Shahid Muhammad (Seton Hall) and Akil Watson. All three of those players are 6-foot-9 or taller.
|
11-01-24 |
Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
137-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
The Thunder have a pair of stars in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and 7-foot-1 Chet Holmgren. Not to be overlooked is Oklahoma City also is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. The Thunder give up the fewest points at 94.8, while also ranking first in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.
The Trail Blazers don't have the offense to dent this caliber of defense. Portland ranks 25th in scoring and 27th in field goal percentage.
The key for the Trail Blazers to keep this game semi-close is defense. They have shown signs of doing that ranking eighth defensively during the last four games. Portland has held three of its last four opponents to 105 points or fewer.
|
10-30-24 |
Celtics v. Pacers +6.5 |
Top |
132-135 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
I like the Pacers getting this many points at home even if center Myles Turner is ruled out. He's questionable with an ankle injury.
Indiana has playoff revenge and has been pointing to this home matchup ever since being eliminated by the Celtics last season.
Boston has won five of the past six games in the series. However, all of the games have been close except one. Boston's margin of victory in four of their victories against the Pacers during this span have been by five points in the regular season, five in overtime in the playoffs and three points each during the final two playoff games. That's an average loss of four points.
The Pacers have lost three in a row with the last two coming to the Magic on the road by four points and to the 76ers in overtime. They are in need of a big win. The Pacers certainly know the Celtics well and can hurt them with their backcourt quickness.
The Celtics are fat and happy being 4-0 and off a satisfying double-digit home win against the Bucks from two days ago.
|
10-29-24 |
Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 |
Top |
120-114 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
Look for the Mavericks to be a step slow playing in their first back-to-back game and in action for the fourth time in six days.
Luka Doncic was held out of preseason. He's still trying to get the rust off shooting just 36.1 percent from the field and 30.3 percent from 3-point range.
The Timberwolves have won two in a row since losing to the Lakers opening night. They are one of the better defensive teams in the league.
Minnesota is in a highly favorable situational spot, too, having been idle since Saturday. This is the second of three straight home games for the Timberwolves.
Julius Randle has found his comfort zone with his new Minnesota team. He's shot 22-of-33 (67%) from the floor in the last two games, averaging 28.5 points during this time frame.
|
10-24-24 |
Wolves -118 v. Kings |
Top |
117-115 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 50 m |
Show
|
There's optimism the Kings can make the playoffs after acquiring DeMar DeRozan during the offseason. DeRozan is an outstanding player and because of that there is going to be an adjustment period for Sacramento because DeRozan affects the team's 3-point shooting, floor spacing and defense.
Minnesota has a big edge having got the kinks out in a 110-103 opening night road loss to the Lakers this past Tuesday, while this is Sacramento's first game.
The Kings looked terrible during preseason both offensively and defensively. Sacramento went 0-5 in preseason with three of those defeats coming by double-digits.
Sacramento ranked 28th in field goal percentage, last in 3-point shooting accuracy, 30th in defensive field goal percentage and second-to-last in 3-point defensive percentage.
|
10-23-24 |
Bulls +6.5 v. Pelicans |
Top |
111-123 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Bulls may be trading some of their best players during the season. But for now Chicago has a healthy lineup with point guard Lonzo Ball, who missed last season, joining Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Josh Giddey, Coby White, Torrey Craig and Patrick Williams among others.
That's a deep rotation and one worth backing against New Orleans, which closed last season failing to cover eight of the past nine times it was favored.
The Pelicans weren't a great home team either going 21-19. They won't have perhaps their most dangerous 3-point shooter as Trey Murphy III is out with a hamstring injury.
|
10-22-24 |
Knicks v. Celtics -5 |
Top |
109-132 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 23 m |
Show
|
The Knicks enter this NBA season with championship aspirations. That's all and good. But the Celtics are the defending world champions.
Boston has superstars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics have tremendous chemistry and hold a huge bench edge against the Knicks.
The Knicks' depth, short to begin with anyways, lost maybe their best reserve, Precious Achiuwa. He suffered a hamstring injury on Sunday and will be out at least a couple of weeks.
The Celtics went 37-4 at home last season. I find this number to be short.
|
06-17-24 |
Mavs v. Celtics -6.5 |
Top |
88-106 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
Boston ran away with the best record in the NBA at 64-18. The Celtics have continued their dominance in the postseason going 15-3. However, that third playoff loss came this past Friday when the Mavericks stayed alive burying the Celtics by 38 points in Dallas.
The Celtics responded from their previous two playoff losses winning by 20 points against the Heat and winning by 13 points against the Cavaliers. Those were road games. Now the Celtics return to Boston properly chastised and embarrassed for their non-show appearance in Game 4 after winning the first three games of the series.
Overconfidence certainly won't strike the Celtics now. Look for Boston to close out the series regardless if Kristaps Porzingis plays or not. The Celtics have won their past five home games, including defeating the Mavericks by 18 and seven points, respectively, in this championship series.
Dallas' role players stepped up in Game 4. That's been the Mavericks' rotation history, though. Their rotation and bench players have performed statistically better at home in the playoffs than away. The Celtics have too much depth and versatility for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to overcome unless they get sufficient help, which hasn't been the case when playing in Boston.
The Mavericks scoring 122 points in Game 4 was an outlier. A case of pouring it on at home long after the Celtics had surrendered. Boston had held the Mavericks to an average of 95.3 points during the first three games of the series.
Joe Mazzulla has grown as a coach. I trust him to make good adjustments and have the Celtics mentally ready and refocused to close out the series in this Game 5.
|
06-14-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs +1.5 |
Top |
84-122 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 55 m |
Show
|
The Celtics didn't sweep their playoff series against the Heat. Nor did they sweep their playoff series against the Cavaliers. I don't see them doing it again against the Mavericks, who have come close in the past two games despite making only 15 of 51 shots from beyond the arc for 29.4 percent during this time span.
The open looks for Dallas have been there. The Mavericks just haven't converted. The Celtics are the superior team, but that edge is negated by the Mavericks at home in must-win mode and Kristaps Porzingis unlikely to play, or not be at 100 percent if he does.
Luka Doncic is a superstar. But he's also thuggish and a whiny crybaby always griping and gesturing about calls he thinks he's not getting. It's disgusting to watch someone that talented sink that low. However, he's likely to get the benefit of the doubt in this Game 4 after he fouled out of the last game.
Kyrie Irving should have his confidence back after scoring 35 points in Wednesday's Game 3.
The last time there was a championship series sweep in the NBA was 2018 when the Warriors took out a decimated Cavaliers team. Before that you have to go back to 2007 when the Spurs swept the Cavaliers. It's just not that common. There's too much pride at stake.
The Mavericks are the healthier team with Porzingis probably out. This is their game to win.
|
06-12-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs OVER 212.5 |
Top |
106-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Celtics have been amazingly consistent with their scoring during their last nine games. They are averaging 111.3 points in regulation during this span, never scoring fewer than 105 points.
Yet the first two games of this series have gone Under because the Mavericks have managed to only produce games of 89 and 98 points.
So the oddsmaker has adjusted. We now have the lowest total of the series.
Dallas is averaging only 93.5 points in the series. There have been two main reasons for that. The Mavericks are just 13-for-53 shooting from 3-point range. That's 24.5 percent. They averaged 36.9 percent during the regular season. The other major factor is aside from Luke Doncic, nearly all of the other Mavericks have failed to step up, especially their role players.
I expect this to change in this Game 3. Boston should maintain its consistency on the scoring end. The Mavericks, though, are due to hit more of their 3-points. Many of their misses have come on open looks.
Look for the Mavericks' role players to step up now that the scene has shifted to Dallas. This is proven in the Mavericks' playoff statistics. Aside from Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the other Mavericks have shot 48.6 percent from the field and 38 percent from beyond the arc when at home during the postseason compared to their road playoff marks of 46.1 percent shooting from the floor and 34.7 percent from 3-point range.
Dallas' big men will be able to score more inside, too, if Kristaps Porzingis can't play, or is limited, after aggravating a leg injury in Game 2.
|
06-06-24 |
Mavs v. Celtics OVER 214.5 |
Top |
89-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 52 m |
Show
|
The pattern usually is higher-scoring games early in the series, lower scoring as the series goes deeper. It makes sense as often at least one team has fresh legs. The teams are in the process, too, of trying to discover what is the most effective way to guard certain players. Both of these teams are more than properly rested for this Game 1 matchup.
Dallas hasn't played in a week giving Luka Doncic ample time to get healthy. Boston last played on May 27.
The Celtics scored 117 points in regulation in Game 1 against the Pacers. Boston produced 120 points vs the Heat in the opening game of that series and scored 114 points against Miami in that playoff opener. The Cavaliers and Heat are superior defensive teams to Dallas.
Boston has elite offensive ability and tremendous scoring depth. The Celtics averaged 120.6 points during the regular-season, which was No. 2 in the league. Big man Kristaps Porzingis is expected to play after missing the last 10 games with a calf injury. The 7-foot-2 inch Porzingis averages 20.1 points, shoots 51.6 percent from the floor and makes 85.8 percent of his free throws. He's a matchup nightmare for the Mavericks' low-post defense, which relies on smaller centers, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II.
Porzingis is effective because he can pass and shoot. The Celtics led the NBA in making corner 3-point shots at 43.6 percent. Dallas is vulnerable on that shot.
It takes two to make a total work. The Mavericks will bring plenty to the offensive table. They have one of the great offensive backcourts of all-time in Doncic and Kyrie Irving along with a cast of impact role players. Doncic scored 33 and 37 points, respectively, in the two regular-season games against Boston. It's going to take time for Boston to probe and figure out the best way to minimize the damage Doncic is going to cause. It's scary to think how great Doncic can be in this series if he's finally 100 percent.
The Mavericks were the seventh-highest scoring team in the league averaging 117.9 points. During their last game, the Mavericks scored 124 points on the road against the Timberwolves, who led the NBA in defense giving up 106.5 points a game.
|
05-30-24 |
Mavs +5 v. Wolves |
Top |
124-103 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 1 m |
Show
|
The record is 155-0. That's the mark of NBA playoff teams winning a best-of-seven playoff series after falling behind, 3-0. I don't see the Timberwolves putting a halt to that 155-series losing streak.
The Timberwolves stayed alive with a 105-100 road win against the Mavericks this past Tuesday. Minnesota shot 53 percent from the floor and 46 percent from 3-point range. Dallas was missing big man Dereck Lively II, who was out with a sprained neck. He's likely to play in this game. Luka Docic and Kyrie Irving were a combined 13-for-39 from the floor and missed 17 of 22 3-point shots. Yet the Timberwolves only won by five points.
Dallas is 2-0 at Minnesota in the playoffs and 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven road playoff games. Only once in their last 15 games, have the Mavericks lost by more than five points.
Minnesota is 1-4 SU and ATS in its past five home contests.
I don't trust the Timberwolves as home favorites where all the pressure is on them. Maybe the Timberwolves will force a Game 6, but I'll take this many points to find that out.
|
05-26-24 |
Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
107-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 52 m |
Show
|
Minnesota is down 2-0 to Dallas in this Western Conference Finals series. Worse for the Timberwolves is the two losses were at home.
But don't write off Minnesota yet.
Luka Doncic is the best player on the floor. But the Timberwolves own the better and deeper roster. They also are 5-1 on the road in the playoffs.
Dallas nipped the Timberwolves, 108-105, in Game 1. Minnesota was emotionally and physically drained after winning the last two games of its series against the defending champion Nuggets, including winning at Denver in Game 7.
The Mavericks shot 49 percent from the floor in Game 1. Minnesota shot 43 percent. Dallas again made 49 percent of its field goals in Game 2, while the Timberwolves shot just 41 percent from the floor. Yet the Mavericks needed a late 3-pointer by Doncic to pull out a 109-108 victory.
The Timberwolves are due to shoot better, especially Anthony Edwards. He's 11-for-33 from the floor in the series for 33.3 percent.
The Mavericks are due for shooting regression against a defense this good. Minnesota was the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA both in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage at 45 percent. The Timberwolves are giving up only 94.2 points in their last four games.
|
05-23-24 |
Pacers v. Celtics UNDER 224.5 |
Top |
110-126 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Pacers nearly upset the Celtics blowing a late lead in a 133-128 overtime loss in Game 1 two days ago. The Celtics weren't fully prepared for the Pacers' fast-paced offense. Indiana also happened to shoot 53.5 percent from the floor.
I expect a much better defensive focus from the Celtics in this Game 2 home matchup. Boston gave up the fifth-fewest points during the regular season, while also ranking No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in 3-point defense.
The Celtics held the Cavaliers and Heat to an average of 94.3 points a game in their previous nine games, not including a 118-94 loss to Cleveland in Game 2 of that series.
The Pacers' defense has picked up. If you exclude a 121-91 loss to the Knicks in Game 5 of their series, the Pacers are giving up an average of 104.8 points during their last five games.
|
05-22-24 |
Mavs v. Wolves OVER 206 |
|
108-105 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
Early games in playoff series often are higher-scoring than the later ones in the series. I see that occurring here. The Mavericks have fresh legs being idle the past four days. That's a much needed break for Luka Doncic, who has been dealing with injury and illness.
The Mavericks were the seventh-highest scoring team during the regular season averaging 117.9 points.
The two teams met four times during the regular season. The combined scores of those games were 223, 220, 218 and 208 - all of which is higher than this total.
|
05-21-24 |
Pacers v. Celtics -9.5 |
Top |
128-133 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 32 m |
Show
|
Great job by the Pacers upsetting the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in Game 7 of their series. That puts the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston. Game 1 is Tuesday in Boston. It's a bad spot for Indiana. Very bad. The Celtics are 41-6 at home. They've been idle since Wednesday. The Pacers will be in action for the eighth time in 15 days. They haven't had enough time to recover from getting past the Knicks. Boston is the superior team and has a strong situational edge. It's enough for the Celtics to cover a double-digit spread. The Celtics are 8-2 in the playoffs disposing of the Heat and Cavaliers in five games each. Boston won seven of those eight games by double-digits. The Pacers are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs. They got through two severely banged-up opponents, the Knicks, and Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Indiana had the top offense in the league during the regular season. However, the Pacers ranked 27th defensively. Offense doesn't win conference titles. Defense does.
|
05-18-24 |
Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
116-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
47 h 2 m |
Show
|
Slower tempo and much improved defensive play have resulted in the Under cashing during the past three games in this Mavericks-Thunder series.
There have been 196, 196 and 206 combined points during these last three games. That averages out to 199.3 If anything I see more defensive intensity for this crucial Game 6 matchup with the Thunder trailing the Mavericks 3-2 in the series.
Both teams are playing their best defense of the season. The Under is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's playoff games. The Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks' last five games.
Superstars Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander get all the publicity. But there are several unsung, below-the-radar players whose defense has been exceptional, including Lugentz Dort and Derrick Jones Jr.
|
05-17-24 |
Knicks v. Pacers -5.5 |
Top |
103-116 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 43 m |
Show
|
I'm going with the Zig-Zag theory here, figuring the Pacers to tie this series at 3-3 after being embarrassed, 121-91, at New York this past Tuesday. The Pacers are 5-0 at home in the playoffs. This includes a pair of victories against the Knicks with an average winning margin of 18.5 points.
The Knicks are extremely short-handed with Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson and now OG Anunoby all ruled out. Jalen Brunson is playing hurt. The Knicks are effectively down to just seven players. The Pacers' bench has been taking advantage. The Knicks are wearing down this late in the season and as this series goes deeper.
So the Knicks just might pull the plug on this game if it gets out of hand looking ahead to Game 7 at home on Sunday.
|
05-16-24 |
Nuggets +2.5 v. Wolves |
Top |
70-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 40 m |
Show
|
Help. The Timberwolves have fallen down and I don't see them picking themselves up. The Timberwolves' lack of big-game playoff experience is showing in lost composure and immaturity.
After falling behind 0-2 in this series, the Nuggets have won the last three games by an average of 16.7 points. Denver is 2-0 in Minnesota winning those games by eight and 27 points, respectively.
The momentum is clearly with Denver. The Timberwolves hadn't lost three straight games all season. Now Minnesota faces adversity they never had to deal with all season.
I don't see the Timberwolves having enough poise to force a seventh game by winning this matchup. Nikola Jokic has gotten off to average 33 points during the last three games. I trust him more than any of the Timberwolves' stars.
Mike Conley missing Tuesday's Game 5 with a sore right Achilles really hurt the Timberwolves not just with his heady point guard play, but also his veteran leadership on the court. Conley is the one player who can keep the Timberwolves' emotional temperature at an even keel. He's questionable for Thursday's game.
|
05-15-24 |
Mavs v. Thunder OVER 212.5 |
Top |
104-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
This series has a definite Zig-Zag feel to it. That includes the total, too. The past two games have gone Under. Now we have the lowest total of the series posted for this Game 5.
I can understand the oddsmaker's need to lower the total following Oklahoma City's, 100-96, road victory on Monday to even the series at 2-2. But it is set too low.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined to shoot just 10-for-31 from the field in that game and the Mavericks were only 12-for-23 from the foul line. Oklahoma City does not have a top-10 defense.
I realize Doncic is playing at less than 100 percent and Dallas is not a good free throwing shooting team. But those numbers and shooting percentages from Doncic and Irving are going way up in this game. The Mavericks were the seventh-highest scoring team in the league at 117.9 points this past season.
The Thunder ranked third in scoring and field goal percentage. They also were No. 1 in 3-point shooting percentage. Oklahoma City has averaged 117 points in its last three home playoff games.
|
05-14-24 |
Wolves +4.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
97-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
I'm not panicking about the Timberwolves losing two straight home games to the Nuggets. The Timberwolves have played better on the road in the playoffs. It could be because their young team feels less pressure when they're not expected to win.
Minnesota has been an underdog four times this postseason - twice at Phoenix and twice at Denver. The Timberwolves are not just 4-0 ATS in those games, but they won each of those games straight-up!
I see that pattern continuing here.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are elite players. They are due to play better. Meanwhile, Denver's Aaron Gordon is due for a huge regression.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are going to get their points. Just as Anthony Edwards will for the Timberwolves. But I don't see Gordon continuing with his unbelievable shooting. He's 16-of-19 from the floor for 84 percent during the last two games.
|
05-13-24 |
Thunder +1.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 14 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City wasn't just the best team in the Western Conference. The Thunder had far and away the top record in the West, six games better than the next closest team.
But after sweeping the Pelicans in the first round and burying Dallas by 22 points in Game 1, the Thunder have dropped the past two games.
Aside from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are getting underachieving scoring from their four other starters. Dallas, on the other hand, is getting shocking offensive production from P.J. Washington. He's averaging 28 points in the past two games after averaging fewer than 13 points per game during the regular season. He is 12-for-23 (52 percent) from 3-point range in the last two games after shooting 32.4 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season.
Washington's surprising hot hand has covered up that Luka Doncic is not nearly at 100 percent bothered by both a knee sprain and ankle soreness.
I expect the Thunder to step up their game, make a necessary adjustment on Washington and even the series with a win today. The Thunder had their chance leading by 10 points in the third quarter in Game 3. They weren't sharp and poised enough, though, to hold that lead. Lesson learned. Oklahoma City is the better team and will prove it here.
|
05-12-24 |
Nuggets +3 v. Wolves |
|
115-107 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Timberwolves had their fun upsetting the defending world champion Nuggets in Denver during the first two games of the series.
But that fun ended when the Nuggets regrouped to batter the Nuggets, 117-90, in Minneapolis this past Friday.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray showed they could get the better of the Timberwolves' defense that ranked No. 1 during the regular season. The Nuggets have their confidence back now. The Timberwolves are young, untested in the playoffs and face more pressure than usual being a home favorite.
I don't trust the Timberwolves in this role.
|
05-11-24 |
Celtics v. Cavs OVER 210.5 |
Top |
106-93 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 20 m |
Show
|
It's only been two games, but already this series is shaping up to be weird. The Celtics scored 120 points in Game 1 and won by 25 points. The Cavaliers scored 118 points in Game 2 and won by 24 points.
So where to go in Game 3?
The Over.
The Celtics scored the second most points per game in the NBA. They ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency and were second in 3-point field goal percentage. I have tremendous respect for Cleveland's defense, although it's not as imposing without center Jarrett Allen. He's missed the past five games and is questionable due to injured ribs. Boston is going to push tempo and get its points.
The key is can the Cavaliers contribute their share to the Over? They made a number of offensive adjustments in Game 2 scoring 24 more points than they did in Game 1. Donovan Mitchell is on his game. He's shooting 50 percent from the floor in the series making 22 of 44 shots from the field, while averaging 31 points.
Boston is without its best big man, Kristaps Porzingis. That hurts its defensive rebounding and opens up the lane more for Cleveland.
Note that only once during the past nine times these teams have played has the combined score been below 212 points.
|
05-10-24 |
Knicks v. Pacers -6 |
Top |
106-111 |
Loss |
-115 |
43 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Knicks are up 2-0 in this series. But I'm expecting things to catch up to the Knicks in a big way starting in this Friday's Game 3 with the venue switching to Indianapolis.
The Pacers should have won Game 1. There were several controversial official's calls that went for the Knicks, which swung the result. The Knicks then battled through injuries to produce a gutty, 130-121, Game 2 win on Wednesday night.
The Pacers made only 10 of 17 free throws in Game 2 for 59 percent. Indiana is an above average free throw shooting team. The Pacers made 78.2 percent of their free throws during the regular season.
Indiana's reserves have outscored New York's bench by a staggering 77 points. The Knicks are extremely thin without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and Bojan Bogdanovic. The problem is now made worse with OG Anunoby suffering a hamstring injury in Wednesday's game and Jalen Brunson dealing with a foot injury.
I see all of this coming to a head in Game 3 where the Pacers will be as motivated as they have been all season. Look for the frustrated Pacers to unleash their pent-up energy to blow the Knicks out.
|
05-08-24 |
Pacers +4.5 v. Knicks |
Top |
121-130 |
Loss |
-107 |
21 h 32 m |
Show
|
I'm far from convinced the Knicks are superior to the Pacers. I thought that way before this series and my belief has only been strengthened by what happened in Game 1.
The Knicks were lucky to escape with a 121-117 victory after trailing by nine points with 10:28 left. The Knicks won by only four points despite shooting 54 percent from the floor, receiving seven more free throw attempts and getting several controversial calls in their favor down the stretch.
What's ominous for the Knicks is Indiana's reserve players outscored New York's bench by 43 points. The Knicks aren't likely to shoot that well again either. They were a below average scoring team, ranking 19th in points per game and 20th in field goal percentage at 46.5 percent during the regular season.
Tyrese Haliburton is due to play better for Indiana and the officiating should be more even after the Game 1 scrutiny.
|