Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-26-20 | Robert Morris +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 102-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm not buying Purdue Fort Wayne being better than Robert Brown. The Mastodons have failed to cover the last six times they've been a home favorite and home-court doesn't mean as much this season with limited or no fans in the stands. Robert Morris went 20-14 last season while capturing the NEC championship. The Colonials could have the best player on the court in AJ Bramah, who averages 18.7 points and seven rebounds a game. The Colonials have covered six of the last seven times they've been an underdog.
|
|||||||
12-26-20 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -114 | 122-112 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies want to get things right after losing, 131-119, at home to the Spurs as short favorites in their opener this past Wednesday. Memphis catches Atlanta a bit fat after the Hawks rolled past the Bulls, 124-104, on the road in their Wednesday opening game. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points. They also draw the Hawks dealing with multiple injuries. Atlanta is down point guards Rajon Rondo and Kris Dunn. The Hawks also could be without sharp-shooting forward Danilo Gallinari and center Clint Capela. Both are doubtful. Memphis had no problem handling the Hawks last season winning by 39 and 17 points, respectively. Ja Mortant had big games against the Hawks and already looks in great form scoring 44 points in this season's opener. Center Jonas Valanciunas is another matchup problem for Atlanta. Valanciunas is in line for another big performance especially if Capela can't play due to an Achilles injury.
|
|||||||
12-25-20 | Nets -3 v. Celtics | 123-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
I consider the Nets a level higher than Boston given a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant while Boston no longer has Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker is out. Early money in the marketplace agrees as the Nets have been pushed up to this point spread range. It's justified. The Nets are the better team and they want to make an early statement in proof of that. This is their chance being on national TV on Christmas Day. The Nets haven't played on Christmas Day since 2013. This also is Irving's first regular season game against his former team. Brooklyn built a 38-point lead against Golden State in its opener this past Tuesday, winning 125-99. The takeaways from that game were not just Irving and Durant looking good, but that the Nets had 28 fast-break points, seven blocks and 11 steals. The Celtics pulled off a dramatic, 122-121, home win against the defending Eastern Conference champion Bucks this past Wednesday. I see the Nets not just as the more talented team, but also the more motivated. They also have the deeper bench.
|
|||||||
12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140.5 | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
The teams split their two meetings last season. There were a combined 122 and 127 points scored in those games. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup again in today's matchup. Neither team is used to playing on Christmas Day. This is a very early start time, too. The game is being nationally televised and there will be fans in the stand. I consider all of these factors as additional pluses for an Under. Wisconsin is the top defensive team in the Big Ten. The Badgers give up 57.5 points, which is the 14th stingiest defense in the nation. The Badgers have excellent size up front. So I don't see the Spartans getting many second-chance opportunities. The Spartans' leading scorer, Joey Hauser, also is dealing with a sore knee. Michigan State should play with tremendous defensive intensity following a lackluster, 79-65, road loss to Northwestern to open its Big 10 season this past Sunday. Tom Izzo called that game one of the worst of his 26 seasons coaching.
|
|||||||
12-23-20 | Mavs +1 v. Suns | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Suns were great in the bubble to finish last season. But I don't consider them a better team than the Mavericks. Dallas is a very strong road club. The Mavericks won 23 of 37 away games last season. The Mavericks have the superior coach in Rick Carlisle, have better continuity and a deeper roster. This is the Suns' first game with new point guard Chris Paul, and he's not at 100 percent due to an ankle injury. The Suns also won't have injured Dario Saric. |
|||||||
12-23-20 | New Mexico v. Boise State UNDER 141 | Top | 52-89 | Push | 0 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Boise State is going to factor in the Mountain West Conference and it's because of defense. Only 20 teams yield fewer points per game than the Broncos, who are holding foes to 59 points. The Broncos just beat New Mexico, 77-53, on Monday. The Lobos had scored 72, 104 and 90 during their previous three games although that came against extremely weak competition. But it's not just New Mexico. In its previous two games, Boise State held BYU eight points under its scoring average and kept Weber State 21 points under its scoring average. Defense should prevail again in this quick rematch since the teams are familiar with each other. New Mexico heavily relies upon Makuach Maluach, who averages 17 points. The Broncos held him to 13 points on 41.7 percent shooting. The Lobos lack any other consistent scorers. The Lobos are not a quick pace team so that's another plus for the Under. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Lobos' last seven games. Boise State has been a big Under team, too, with 12 of its last 15 games going below the total, including the last six at home. |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Bucks -3.5 v. Celtics | 121-122 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
The Bucks compiled the best regular season record at 56-17 last season. Milwaukee, though, was taken out in the playoffs by the Heat. So the Bucks and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, armed with a contract extension, are anxious to begin a new season. They were a level higher than Boston last season and could be two levels higher right now given that the Celtics are without Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker. Milwaukee has the stronger bench and firepower as the Celtics don't offer much once you get past Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 121-122 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
The Celtics' firepower is down right now minus departed Gordon Hayward and injured Kemba Walker. The Celtics don't have much scoring outside of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics added Tristan Thompson, who is good for the Under being a defensive-oriented big man. The Celtics gave up the fewest points per game in the playoffs and ranked No. 2 in scoring defense during the regular season last year at 107.3. The Bucks are adjusting to a new point guard, Jrue Holiday, and have brought in many new bench players. So Milwaukee's offense is in transition right now.
|
|||||||
12-23-20 | Northwestern State v. Washington State -16.5 | 52-62 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Washington State is off to its best start in 13 years opening 7-0. The Cougars are hitting their stride, too, winning by 28 points during each of their last two games. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Northwestern State. The Demons aren't very good - they are 1-9 - and they face a major fatigue issue. This is their fifth road game in six days and third in three days. The Demons have gone against top-ranked Gonzaga each of the last two days. This is Northwestern State's last game until Jan. 2. So it's not inconceivable the Demons mail this one in, or are just plain too tired to effectively compete.
|
|||||||
12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets -6.5 | Top | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
I see this line closing higher so I'm going to lock in now with the Nets. It's no joke. The Nets are serious contenders to win the Eastern Conference with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant each healthy and an excellent collection of talented role players. Brooklyn looked good in preseason going 2-0 beating the Celtics and Wizards by a combined average of 14 1/2 points. Golden State isn't at Brooklyn's level. Yes, Stephen Curry is back. That's enough to elevate the Warriors into a playoff contender. But that's it. Klay Thompson is out long-term and Draymond Green isn't expected to play in this game due to a foot injury. The Nets have much the stronger bench.
|
|||||||
12-22-20 | Sacred Heart v. Wagner UNDER 139 | 86-85 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
The teams just Monday and there was a combined 120 points scored in Wagner's 74-46 blowout win. Sacred Heart should play with a lot of intensity in this shortest of revenge spots especially after being humiliated. The Pioneers forced nearly 14 turnovers a game. A key takeaway from that game was the slow tempo. Wagner is a slow tempo team. That's the way Sacred Heart is playing this year, too, being very inexperienced. The Under has cashed in 20 of Sacred Heart's last 28 games. The Under is 18-7-1 in Wagner's last 26 games. Sacred Heart ranks 327th in field goal shooting percentage. Wagner doesn't shoot much better ranking 300th. |
|||||||
12-22-20 | Fairleigh Dickinson +1 v. Fairfield | 69-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Fairleigh Dickinson is playing better on both ends of the court. The Knights also have played a tougher schedule than the Stags, who might not have their full concentration with Christmas break following this game. Fairfield is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 78 points in its last three games after averaging 66.5 points during its first four games. The Knights have forced an average of 13.4 turnovers. |
|||||||
12-22-20 | SE Missouri State +13.5 v. Indiana State | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Indiana State is an inconsistent team that is laying too many points here. The Sycamores haven't broken 68 points in each of their last three games. Southeast Missouri State is 2-4. But it's not a stretch to say the Redhawks could be 6-0 as three of their losses occurred in OT and the other was by two points on a last-second basketball. The Redhawks have three good seniors in Chris Harris, Nolan Taylor and Nana Akenten.
|
|||||||
12-21-20 | Murray State -3 v. Austin Peay | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
The teams played against each other two weeks ago and Murray State won, 87-57, as 3 1/2-point home favorites. The Racers have dominated this series winning eight of the past nine times. They are 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Austin Peay. Murray State averages 18 more points per game than the Governors. Austin Peay has been one of the worst point spread teams going 2-13-1 ATS the past 16 times, including 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Racers have too much offense again for Austin Peay. The price is cheap to back them. |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Weber State -5 v. Portland State | 72-74 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Portland State hosted Weber State two days ago. The results weren't pretty for the Vikings. Weber State buried them, 94-66. Now the teams meet again. So what has changed? Nothing really. Portland State has short revenge and a limited home-court edge. But this isn't nearly enough to offset a 28-point difference. Weber State is said to be much improved offensively this season. The Wildcats have shown that. Discount a tough game against Boise State and the Wildcats are averaging 89 points in their three other games. The Wildcats showed they weren't bothered by Portland State's full-court pressure style. The Vikings are breaking in new players. They aren't as advanced right now as Weber State. They rank 317th in field goal percentage and 327th in 3-point shooting percentage. Weber State isn't likely to win by 28 points again, but the Wildcats should easily cover this number.
|
|||||||
12-19-20 | St. Joe's +22 v. Villanova | 68-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
I don't see the blowout oddsmakers are predicting. Saint Joseph got a lot of rust off following an 81-77 road loss to Drexel this past Thursday. The Hawks' previous game was way back on Nov. 27. St. Joe's took Auburn to overtime in a loss and was beaten by 22 points on a neutral court by Kansas in its two other games. So the Hawks are battle tested. They have two excellent scorers in Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk. Villanova was supposed to meet Virginia in a huge marquee matchup today in New York City, but that game was canceled because of COVID-19 issues with Virginia. So instead the Wildcats draw nearby Philadelphia foe St. Joe's. This is a huge rivalry game. The game means more for St. Joe's, which is trying to put last season's 6-26 record behind. St. Joe's is coached by Billy Lange, who previously served as associate head coach at Villanova under Wildcats head man Jay Wright. If the Hawks should fall considerably behind late in the game the backdoor should swing open as Wright would not want to embarrass his former assistant by running up a score.
|
|||||||
12-19-20 | Arizona +2.5 v. Stanford | 75-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Death, taxes and Arizona beating Stanford in college basketball. Those are among the few certainties in life. The Wildcats have defeated the Cardinal 20 times in a row! I see the streak reaching 21 consecutive Arizona victories in the series. The Wildcats are a deep team and tough on both ends of the court. Stanford lacks a strong inside presence and is vulnerable on the offensive glass, which is an Arizona strength. The Wildcats rank eighth in the country in offensive rebounding. Stanford has beaten Alabama, North Carolina A&T and Cal State-Northridge. Only the Alabama win was impressive. In their other step-up games, the Cardinal lost to North Carolina and Indiana. Those losses occurred on neutral courts. This game is on a neutral court, too, being played in Santa Cruz instead of Maples Pavilion on the Stanford campus due to COVID-19 restrictions.
|
|||||||
12-19-20 | Eastern Washington -9.5 v. Northern Arizona | 80-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
The records may seem like this would be a competitive game between two Big Sky Conference teams. Eastern Washington is 1-4. Northern Arizona is 0-3. But it's not. It's a complete mismatch where Eastern Washington should blow out Northern Arizona far more than even this double-digit spread indicates. Northern Arizona is one of the worst teams in the country. The Lumberjacks' average loss margin is 34 points! Their closest game was a 24-point loss to UC-Riverside. They rank 338th out of 357 Division I teams in defensive efficiency, according to KemPom.com ratings. Eastern Washington has played a far more difficult schedule. The Eagles lost 71-68 to Washington State, lost 70-67 to Arizona, fell 69-52 to Oregon and lost 80-75 to Saint Mary's. All of those games were on the road. The Eagles covered every one of those matchups except the Oregon one. Look for the Eagles, who were the preseason pick to win the Big Sky Conference, to unleash their frustrations and make a strong statement to hapless Northern Arizona knowing the teams meet again on Saturday.
|
|||||||
12-19-20 | Maryland-Baltimore County -3 v. Albany | 65-64 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
UMBC is 4-1 and has covered all five of its games. The Retrievers have looked much better than they did last season. Now they open America East Conference action today against Albany. The Great Danes were 4-20 last season. They have not played yet due to COVID-19 issues. It's difficult to believe Albany is going to be in game shape to take on UMBC having missed so many practices due to constant COVID-19 problems. So this is a very short number to back UMBC.
|
|||||||
12-19-20 | Purdue v. Notre Dame +6.5 | 88-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Notre Dame is one of the most battle-tested teams in the nation. The Irish are 2-3. One of their victories was against Kentucky on the road with three of their defeats occurring to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Irish are a much better 3-point and free throw shooting team than Purdue. The spot is good, too, for the Irish. They played sloppy in a 75-65 home loss to Duke this past Wednesday. Purdue, on the other hand, is off a satisfying 67-60 home win against Big Ten Conference foe Ohio State this past Wednesday. Note this game is at neutral site Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Irish have the experience, coaching and pride to learn from their Duke loss to come back strong after a poor performance.
|
|||||||
12-18-20 | Weber State v. Portland State OVER 147.5 | Top | 94-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Neither team was sharp offensively in their last game. Weber State scored just 59 points in an 11-point road loss to Boise State. Portland State suffered a nine-point road defeat to Washington State scoring only 60 points. I expect both Weber State and Portland State to score far more points than it did in those games as each is stepping down in class in this Big Sky Conference matchup. Weber State has a high-scoring guard , Isiah Brown. He's averaging 24.3 points. The Wildcats scored 88 and 85 points, respectively, in their first two games against lesser competition before running into Boise State. The Over has cashed in 12 of Weber State's last 16 games following a loss. Portland State produced 88 points in its last game versus a weaker foe before it met Washington State. The Vikings have gone Over in eight of their last nine home contests. |
|||||||
12-17-20 | Cal-Irvine v. Loyola Marymount -4 | 48-51 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm sure Cal-Irvine will be a strong factor in the Big West Conference again. But right now the Anteaters are struggling. The Anteaters are 2-3 with their two victories coming against non-Division I opponents while all three losses have been to Division I foes in blowout fashion. The Anteaters lost to Pepperdine, 86-72, at a neutral site, lost 77-58 at San Diego State and fell 91-56 on the road to USC. They are 0-3 ATS in their lined games. Loyola Marymount is 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points at Gersten Pavillion. Senior forward Eli Scott gives the Lions the best player on the court. I don't see the Anteaters getting right in this road setting against this opponent.
|
|||||||
12-17-20 | St. Joe's +1.5 v. Drexel | 77-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Saint Joseph's has better talent than Drexel with Taylor Funk, Ryan Daly and Jack Forrest. Drexel can't match that firepower. Yet Drexel opened the favorite. I understand the Dragons are home. They've played five games, while St. Joe's has played only two games, none since Nov. 27 because of COVID-19 issues. So, yes, there could be a rust issue. But anytime the superior team is getting points I'm highly interested in backing the 'dog. St. Joe's two games were against Auburn and Kansas. The Hawks led Auburn by three with 30 seconds left before losing in overtime. They were hanging in against Kansas until the final 15 minutes. Drexel is coming off a 14-19 season. The Dragons are 3-2, but haven't beaten a team ranked in the top 250 in the KenPom rankings.
|
|||||||
12-16-20 | Samford -120 v. Troy State | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
Samford has gotten my attention with its last two games. The Bulldogs upset Belmont, 96-83, as 17 1/2-point road 'dogs and hung in against Georgia, in a 79-75 defeat, as 18-point road 'dogs despite not shooting well from the floor. Troy has played far easier competition in its last two games. Samford is far more explosive than the Trojans averaging 30 more points per game. This is a step down game for Samford and a step up game for Troy. The point spread is ripe to get involved with Samford. |
|||||||
12-16-20 | St Francis NY v. Central Connecticut State OVER 154 | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
The teams just met each other on Tuesday and St. Francis won, 91-86. That's a total of 177 points. The takeaway from that game was the uptempo pace and neither team showing much, if any, defense. Connecticut State has given up at least 79 points in all six of its six games. St. Francis averages 88.7 points in its three games. So it's perplexing that this game opened with such a low total.
|
|||||||
12-15-20 | Indiana State v. St. Louis OVER 140 | 59-78 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Saint Louis is a run-and-gun team. Only 11 teams score more points per game than the Billikens, who average 92.3. They have five players averaging in double figures headed by Javonte Perkins. The Billikens are guard-oriented. They shoot and make a lot of 3-pointers. Indiana State ranks 300th in defensive field goal percentage and 319th in 3-point defense. Indiana State just lost 80-68 to Purdue this past Saturday. That game went Over by 11 points. The Boilermakers were averaging 61 points during their previous two games. The pace was fast in that game so that's a good sign for this one to go Over, too.
|
|||||||
12-15-20 | SE Missouri State +3 v. Evansville | 63-66 | Push | 0 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
Nothing fancy here. Evansville is 1-22 in its last 23 games. I'm going to fade them in this chalk role. The Purple Aces are a low-scoring team. They are 1-3 this season and are learning to get in sync having had two of their games canceled. Southeast Missouri State is the higher scoring team and a much better 3-point shooting team than Evansville. |
|||||||
12-15-20 | Longwood +4.5 v. Radford | 53-62 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a rare instance of teams playing each other a second straight day. Radford nipped Longwood, 67-66, on Monday failing to cover as 4 1/2-point favorites. I thought Longwood was the better team then and I still believe that way. Both teams shot 45 percent from the floor. Radord, though, made 20 of 28 free throws while Longwood only got to shoot 10 free throws. Yet the Lancers still only lost by one point and had a chance to win at the end. I don't anticipate Radford having such a large free throw discrepancy this time around. Longwood guard Juan Munoz showed he was the best player on the court scoring 29 points. The Lancers have the stronger bench, which could prove important with this short turnaround. Radford has only one of its top seven scorers from last season back. The announced attendance for last night's game was 250 so there's not much home-court edge for Radford. Longwood has held four of its first five foes to fewer than 70 points. The Lancers have covered seven of their last eight road games, while Radford is 3-8-2 ATS in its past 13 home contests.
|
|||||||
12-15-20 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Miami-OH | 90-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Buffalo has lost some talent, but the Bulls still will have the two best players on the court in Jeenathan Williams and Jayvon Graves. They've combined to average 37 points and 16 rebounds per game. I see the Bulls having too much firepower for Miami of Ohio. The Bulls are tough on the glass and they outscore the RedHawks by eight points per game. Buffalo has major revenge, too, after the RedHawks upset them as 9-point 'dogs in the first round of the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season.
|
|||||||
12-14-20 | Longwood +3.5 v. Radford | Top | 66-67 | Win | 105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
This is the Big South Conference opener for both schools. Longwood is 1-3. Radford is worse at 1-4. I disagree about the Highlanders being favored even though they are home. Radford is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Highlanders have back only one of their top seven scorers from last season. The Lancers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road contests and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 overall games. Longwood has held three of its first four foes to fewer than 70 points. Freshman guard Justin Hill has looked good for the Lancers. His 6.2 assists per game is second-best in the nation for a freshman. He and Juan Munoz give the Lancers a strong backcourt edge.
|
|||||||
12-13-20 | Massachusetts -3 v. Northeastern | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
These two teams opened their seasons just two days ago facing each other in the front end of a home-and-home series. It was no contest. UMass built a 20-point lead and easily handled Northeastern, 94-79. The Minutemen also defeated Northeastern last season by nine points. Tre Mitchell of UMass was the best player on the court scoring 31 points. The sophomore guard averaged 17.7 points last season. Northeastern is in rebuild mode having lost its two top scorers from last season. The Huskies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Minutemen are ranked 119th in Ken Pomeroy's highly-respected college basketball ratings while the Huskies are placed at 182nd. I see no reason why UMass shouldn't win and cover again in this short turnaround. |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Dayton v. Mississippi State UNDER 135 | Top | 85-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
After opening with three home games, Dayton is playing on the road for the first time. The Flyers have failed to break the 66-point barrier in any of their games going against Eastern Illinois, SMU and Northern Kentucky. SMU ranks 91st in scoring defense, Northern Kentucky rates 170th in scoring defense and Eastern Illinois is 192nd. So it's not like the Flyers have played outstanding defensive opponents. Dayton is committing an average of 18.7 turnovers a game. So this has hampered the Flyers' offense. Mississippi State is the best defensive team the Flyers have faced. The Bulldogs rank 56th in scoring defense. Mississippi State does not play at a fast pace. The Bulldogs lost much of their offense from last season. This game is being played at neutral site Atlanta so that's a plus for the Under, too.
|
|||||||
12-12-20 | Wofford +3.5 v. South Florida | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Wofford is more than capable of beating South Florida, a below average American Athletic Conference team. Note this game is a neutral site matchup being played in Atlanta. The Terriers are one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation averaging 90.3 points. They rank 18th in scoring and 10th in shooting percentage. Wofford's lone loss in three games occurred on the road to Richmond, 77-72. The Spiders are one of the top mid-major teams in the country. South Florida is 3-2. The Bulls' wins have come against very weak competition - Florida College, Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson - while their losses were in step-up games against Rhode Island and Virginia Tech. South Florida was blown out in both of those games.
|
|||||||
12-12-20 | Florida +3 v. Florida State | 71-83 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
I like getting this many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. This isn't so much a fade on Florida State as it is a play on Florida, which is coming on after having its first three games cancelled because of COVID-19. The Gators are 3-0, including an impressive 90-70 victory against Boston College at a neutral site. The Gators have a star in forward Keyontae Johnson, who was voted the SEC's Preseason Player of the Year. He's averaging 19.7 points and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Guard Tre Mann also is playing extremely well for Florida. Florida State has played just twice and only once during the last 10 days. The Seminoles escaped with a 69-67 overtime home victory against Indiana this past Wednesday, failing to cover as 3-point favorites. The Hooisers nearly won despite shooting 37 percent from the floor and missing 11 of 15 3-point shots.
|
|||||||
12-11-20 | Marquette v. UCLA UNDER 140.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
Marquette remains a very good team, but the Golden Eagles are a different kind of good team from last season since they no longer have superstar Markus Howard. Howard led the nation in scoring last season. The Golden Eagles go all the way down from Howard averaging nearly 30 points a game to Koby McEwen, who leads Marquette in scoring at 16.6. The Golden Eagles use more motion offense now with frequent passing that leads to a balanced attack and takes time off the clock. The result is they've dropped 81 spots in terms of tempo ranking 141st in pace. Marquette has played five games. This is the Golden Eagles' first road road matchup. So I expect them to play even more cautious and deliberate especially given that UCLA is a high-scoring team. The Bruins, however, are stepping up against a much stronger defensive foe than they've encountered. Marquette ranks 17th in defensive field goal percentage. UCLA is talented, too, on the defensive end. The key in accessing the Bruins is their pace. Second-year UCLA coach Mick Cronin wants to take advantage of his team's quality depth by playing up-tempo. So far, though, that hasn't transpired as the Bruins rate among the bottom 20 percent in pace. |
|||||||
12-11-20 | Nevada -1.5 v. Grand Canyon | 77-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
So far so good for Grand Canyon and its new coach, Bryce Drew, as the Antelopes are 3-0. But I see the Antelopes taking their first loss here. Nevada has played a far more difficult schedule than Grand Canyon. Among the foes the Wolf Pack have met are San Francisco, North Dakota State, Nebraska and Pacific. The Antelopes have played a Division III school and opponents who are ranked 333th and 377th, which is last, in the KenPom.com ratings. Grand Canyon also figures to be rusty, having not played in 10 days. The Antelopes' home-court edge isn't going to be much either due to limited fan capacity. Grand Canyon's calling card is height. Nevada counters that with a much better 3-point shooting game. Nevada center Warren Washington also has been playing well. The Wolf Pack have experience with four players back from their 19-win team of last season plus transfers. I see an obvious class difference and situational edge here that Grand Canyon's superior height won't be able to overcome. |
|||||||
12-10-20 | Cal-Riverside -6.5 v. Northern Arizona | 74-50 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
On the surface we have a Big West Conference team, UC Cal-Riverside, taking on a Big Sky Conference foe, Northern Arizona, on the road. So the game should be close, right, considering we have two small conference teams going at it? I don't see it that way. I believe UC Cal-Riverside is much superior to Northern Arizona and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to this. Northern Arizona has played only one game. That came four days ago. The Lumberjacks were crushed by Arizona, 96-53, as 23-point road 'dogs. Arizona nearly doubled the 23-point spread shooting 66.7 percent from the floor and making 59.1 percent of its 3-point shots. Riverside is coming off a 20-point road victory against Denver this past Sunday. The Highlanders put up 83 points and made 46.9 percent of their shots from beyond the range. This doesn't bode well for Northern Arizona. UC-Cal Riverside should be able to hurt the Lumberjacks from outside and score inside with center Jock Perry. The Highlanders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games. They have a strong history, too, of covering against weaker opponents going 12-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. |
|||||||
12-09-20 | Southern Utah -2.5 v. Utah Valley | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
There's a class difference here not reflected in the betting line, which is too short. Southern Utah has won three in a row, including beating Montana twice. The Thunderbirds were underdogs both times. Southern Utah forward Maizen Fausett was named Big Sky Conference Player of the Week. Utah Valley is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when going against above .500 opponents. The Thunderbirds can hurt Utah Valley in transition. Southern Utah dominated Montana in transition. That should be the case in this matchup, too.
|
|||||||
12-09-20 | Furman +4 v. Cincinnati | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
If you go by the highly respected KenPom.com ratings you'll see that Cincinnati is ranked 63rd and Furman right behind the Bearcats at 64. The Paladins are favored to win the Southern Conference. They have played only low-major opponents so far, but the results have been impressive: 4-0 with an average victory margin of 31.2 points. Furman had one of the 100 most efficient offenses in the country last season. The Paladins were among the top 10 best mid-majors in the country. So this isn't going to be an easy opponent for Cincinnati, especially given that the 1-1 Bearcats aren't playing well defensively and don't have a set rotation. This quote from Cincinnati coach John Brannen is telling: "I'm really learning our team," Brannen said following the Bearcats' 77-69 loss to Xavier this past Sunday. "We don't have a rotation yet. Those are things that we're learning." Furman guard Mike Bothwell is playing at a very high level averaging nearly 22 points a game. The Paladins have covered five of their last six road games. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS at home going back to last season and 1-6 ATS after not covering in their previous game. |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Green Bay +22.5 v. Marquette | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
Green Bay catches Marquette at a good time. The Golden Eagles are still basking in the glory and satisfaction of defeating fourth-ranked Wisconsin, 67-65, this past Friday night at home. That was Marquette's first victory against a Top 5 program since 2017. So a letdown is very much a possibility for Marquette. The key question is if Green Bay is good enough to cover this large number? The Phoenix are 0-3. But they've played two tough Big Ten teams, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Green Bay was blown out in those games, but showed better in its last game, a two-overtime loss to Eastern Illinois. Green Bay is battle tested enough and given this scheduling break of drawing Marquette fat and happy, I believe the Phoenix can stay within the number. |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Green Bay v. Marquette UNDER 153.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
Marquette is learning to adjust to life post Markus Howard, who was the leading college basketball scorer last season averaging 27.8 points. The Golden Eagles' leading scorer so far this season is Koby McEwan at 13.8. The Golden Eagles are more defensive-minded and passing the ball more now that they no longer have superstar Howard. Green Bay is likely to slow the pace, which will be OK with Marquette. The Phoenix averaged just 55.5 points in losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin.
|
|||||||
12-07-20 | Northern Arizona +23 v. Arizona | 53-96 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
Northern Arizona is extremely anxious to play. This is the Lumberjacks' first game. They are a slightly above average Big Sky Conference team. I like the spot for the Lumberjacks and believe they have enough talent to cover this large spread. Arizona barely beat another Big Sky team, Eastern Washington, two days ago. The Wildcats won, 70-67, failing to cover as 12 1/2-point home favorites. Arizona is down three of its better players with Kerr Kriisa, Daniel Batcho and Ira Lee all out. Northern Arizona has one of the Big Sky's top players in versatile point guard Cameron Shelton. The Lumberjacks also have an excellent 3-point shooter in Luke Avdalovic and Jay Green, who transferred from UNLV. The Lumberjacks treat this in-state matchup more serious than Arizona. Northern Arizona coach Shane Burcar really wants a good showing. He replaced Jack Murphy last season after Murphy left for Arizona to become the associate head coach under Sean Miller. Certainly the Lumberjacks won't lack motivation going against their former coach. |
|||||||
12-07-20 | Hampton v. Norfolk State UNDER 147 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
My first look in rivalry matchups such as this is to the Under. The more I study this game the clearer it becomes that Under is the right play. Hampton is down four of its top six scorers from last season, including Jermaine Morrow and Ben Stanley. Those two combined to average nearly 47 points a game. The Pirates like to play inside to their strength. That means more of a half-court game and slower pace. Norfolk State usually is one of the top defensive teams in the Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference. Defense, not offense, is the Spartans' calling card. The teams met last season and Hampton won, 64-53, at home. That game went Under by 25 1/2 points.
|
|||||||
12-06-20 | Seton Hall +3 v. Penn State | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm not convinced Penn State is the better team in this matchup even though Seton Hall is off to a slow start. The Nittany Lions had an easy win against overmatched VMI in their opener and then nipped VCU, 72-69, this past Wednesday on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Penn State failed to cover, though. So going back to last season, the Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Seton Hall is 1-3 with a victory against Iona, but losses to Louisville by one point, to Rhode Island on the road and to 21st-ranked Oregon, 83-70, two days ago. The Ducks were blazing in that game hitting 53 percent of their shots from the floor. I envision the Pirates playing with a great deal of urgency. A straight-up victory by the Pirates would not surprise. |
|||||||
12-06-20 | Cal-Riverside -4.5 v. Denver | 83-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
I like the way Cal-Riverside is playing defense. The Highlanders upset Washington, 57-42, at a neutral site in their last game after losing their opener to Pacific on the road, 66-60. Cal-Riverside already is battle tested at this early stage. The same can not be said for Denver. The Pioneers have played only one game and that was an 82-66 home victory against Regis University, a Division II program. Denver also could be rusty having not played in eight days. |
|||||||
12-05-20 | South Carolina v. Houston UNDER 140.5 | Top | 67-77 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Only five teams have surrendered fewer points per game than Houston. The 3-0 Cougars have held their foes to 52 points on 36.7 percent shooting from the floor while forcing nearly 18 turnovers per game. Houston has become much more of a half-court team slowing down pace. That has factored into the Cougars' strong defensive showing. South Carolina has been slow to begin the season without getting to play any exhibition games. The Gamecocks are averaging 65.5 points in losing 78-62 to Liberty and beating Tulsa, 69-58. The Gamecocks are better on defense than they are on offense. Games played at Houston historically are lower-scoring than projected. The Under is 21-7-1 in the Cougars' last 29 home contests. |
|||||||
12-04-20 | South Alabama +10 v. Auburn | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
South Alabama hung in against Auburn last season losing, 70-69, as seven-point home 'dogs. Right now Auburn isn't nearly as good as it was last season yet the spread is double-digits, which is too high even given that the Tigers are home. This game means more to South Alabama than it does to Auburn and the Jaguars draw the Tigers at a good time. Auburn is feeling its way around after losing its top six scorers from last season. The Tigers brought in point guard Sharife Cooper, a five-star recruit. But Cooper has eligibility issues and has yet to play. The result has been chaos, turnovers and uncertainty at point guard. The Tigers haven't been shooting well, nor converting their free throws. They are extremely young with no seniors and just three juniors. South Alabama is 3-1 and playing with confidence. I see the Jaguars hanging in just like last season.
|
|||||||
12-04-20 | Oregon v. Seton Hall +3 | Top | 83-70 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Oregon may have the higher ceiling, but right now these teams are very even. I consider this a pick''em type game so I'll gladly accept points with the underdog Pirates. This game is at neutral site Omaha, Neb. The Pirates have covered a highly impressive 81 percent of their last 22 neutral site games. Due to COVID-19 issues, Oregon has been able to play only one game. The Ducks' opener against Eastern Washington was postponed. Oregon is breaking in four new starters. The Ducks are without Will Richardson, one of their best players. He's out with a thumb injury. So Oregon really needs to get into action. Seton Hall already is battle tested. The Pirates defeated Iona, but lost 71-70 to Louisville as a 5-point 'dog and fell 76-63 to Rhode Island.
|
|||||||
12-03-20 | Montana +1 v. Southern Utah | 63-64 | Push | 0 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Montana hadn't played in 266 days until meeting USC this past Saturday. The Grizzlies were rusty in the first half, but outscored the Trojans by five during the second half in a 76-62 loss. There's no shame in losing to the unbeaten Trojans, who dealt BYU its first loss of the season. Now the Grizzlies step down in class to face Southern Utah, which just got through playing some school named St. Katherine. So the Thunderbirds are in the opposite situation stepping up in class. Southern Utah hasn't been good at home failing to cover 11 of the past 14 times.
|
|||||||
12-02-20 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 139 | Top | 55-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Neither Oregon State nor Washington State is expected to be much of a factor in the Pac-12 this season. So far so good, though, as each team is 2-0. Both teams have been winning with defense and slowing the ball down. I'm expecting a half-court type game here with plenty of defensive intensity. Oregon State opened its season defeating California, 71-63, and then buried overmatched NAIA opponent Northwest, 114-42, this past Friday. That was the Beavers' highest-scoring game in 33 years. It also skews their statistics. Their offense isn't as efficient this season minus Tres Tinkle. Washington State opened with a 56-52 victory against Texas Southern. That game went Under by 36 points. The Cougars followed up that impressive defensive effort with a 71-68 victory against offensively-talented Eastern Washington this past Saturday. That game also went Under. Lack of practice time and games being cancelled have slowed down some offenses. Here's a telling quote from Cougars coach Kyle Smith. "It's just an odd (feeling)," Smith was quoted as saying. "The scores in these games are going to be different to where you should be come January."
|
|||||||
12-02-20 | Tennessee Tech +23 v. Xavier | 48-79 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Tennessee Tech has some size and athleticism. The Golden Eagles play a lot of man-to-man, half-court defense, which Xavier hasn't seen too much. Keishawn Davidson is a good player. But most of this handicap to underdog Tennessee Tech is a play against Xavier. The Musketeers are 4-0, but haven't been playing well. Their last three victories against Bradley, Toledo and Eastern Kentucky have been by a combined seven points, including nipping Eastern Kentucky, 99-96 in overtime, on Monday. This marks Xavier's fifth game in seven days. The Musketeers have a rivalry game against Cincinnati on deck. The Musketeers are 0-6 ATS following a victory. Tennessee Tech is 0-2 and averages just 56.5 points. The Golden Eagles are 316th in KenPom.com's rating compared to Xavier's being 65th. But given the situation and Xavier not playing up to its capability yet, I'll accept this many points.
|
|||||||
12-02-20 | St. John's v. BYU -1 | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
I want BYU going for me after the Cougars were upset and smashed by USC, 79-53, on Monday in the Legends Classic opener in the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. St. John's had to work very hard to get past Boston College, 97-93, on Monday in its Legends Classic opener. St. John's is 3-0 with victories against St. Peter's, LaSalle and Boston College. The Johnnies pulled out a 76-75 win against St. Peter's by rallying for four points with 17 seconds left. St. John's was 10 1/2-point favorites in that game. BYU was 3-0 until falling to USC. The Cougars are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. But they were ice cold against the Trojans shooting 23 percent from beyond the arc and 27 percent from the field. I expect the Cougars to bounce back. They are 6-0 ATS following a loss. BYU won its first three games by an average of 33 points. St. John's ranks 203rd in 3-point defense. The Johnnies also are breaking in a new point guard. Along with their ability to hit 3-pointers, the Cougars have size and depth, which is key with both teams playing without rest.
|
|||||||
12-01-20 | Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
Both teams are replacing key players. But Kansas' rebuild job is further along and far less daunting than Kentucky's. The Wildcats are likely to get better as the season progresses, but right now they are extremely inexperienced and not ready for an opponent the caliber of Kansas. Kentucky, starting four freshmen, was exposed by Richmond two days ago losing, 76-64, as 6 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats were 0-for-10 from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers. Keion Brooks Jr. is Kentucky's only returning starter and he has a leg injury. The Wildcats have missed 18 of 26 3-pointers on the season. Kansas had a good test in its opener falling, 102-90, to top-ranked Gonzaga. The Jayhawks rebounded to beat Saint Joseph's, 94-72, this past Friday. Kansas showed good depth in that game. Christian Braun and redshirt freshman point guard Dajuan Harris were sharp in that game. The Jayhawk are ahead of the Wildcats right now. Kansas has shown offensive efficiency while Kentucky's defense and outside shooting have not been impressive.
|
|||||||
12-01-20 | North Carolina A&T +4 v. Charleston Southern | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
Charleston Southern has been one of the worst point spread teams going back to last season failing to cover in 9 of its last 10 games. Minus their top player, injured Phlandrous Fleming Jr., the Buccaneers have averaged only 55.5 points in losing and failing to cover during their first two games getting blown out by NC State and Eastern Kentucky. Fleming isn't expected to play here. But Kameron Langley is. He's North Carolina A&T's top player and maybe the best player in the Mid-East Athletic Conference. Langley and fellow seniors Tyrone Lyons and Blake Harris provide plenty of experience, scoring and assists for the Aggies. Langley is one of the top assist guys in the country. Charleston Southern hasn't done anything. The Buccaneers could have problems with Langley setting a fast tempo and with the Aggies' press. So I don't see the Buccaneers being favored even being at home.
|
|||||||
11-30-20 | Stanford v. Alabama -2 | 82-64 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
I know Alabama can produce points. I'm not so sure about Stanford. The Cardinal ranked 228th in scoring last season averaging 69.5. They are not a good free throw shooting team and no longer have Tyrell Terry, who was a second round draft pick of the Dallas Mavericks. This is Stanford's first game of the season. Alabama showed some defense in its opener, defeating Jacksonville State, 81-57, at home this past Wednesday covering as 21-point favorites. The Crimson Tide got some of the kinks out. I'm looking for them to play better in this step-up game. Note this matchup is being played in a downtown arena in Asheville, N.C. after the Maui Invitational was relocated. That's a plus for Alabama, the southern school. Stanford is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 neutral site matchups.
|
|||||||
11-30-20 | Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier OVER 144.5 | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Tempo is one of the key ingredients in getting involved with a college basketball total. Xavier coach Travis Steele has his team playing at a quicker pace. The Musketeers have mostly been doing that going Over in two of their first three games. Eastern Kentucky certainly will be willing to run and press against Xavier. The Colonels play at the seventh-fastest pace in the country. "They're going to play really fast," Steele said about the Colonels. The Colonels are averaging 70 points in their two games, but are due to shoot much better from the perimeter as they've missed 47 of 56 shots from 3-point range.
|
|||||||
11-29-20 | Virginia Tech v. South Florida +8.5 | 76-58 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
South Florida is a borderline postseason contender with a defensive-minded backcourt and size up front. The Bulls didn't shoot well on Saturday and lost, 84-68, to Rhode Island in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-off at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. No fans were in attendance. So it's easy to overlook South Florida when it takes on 2-0 Virginia Tech today. The 2-0 Hokies are coming off a huge, 81-73, overtime upset victory against third-ranked Villanova in the tournament. Virginia Tech was supposed to have played Temple. But the Owls had to drop out due to COVID-19 issues. So the Hokies may not have their full focus after that huge and unexpected victory against such a power. South Florida coach Brian Gregory knows Virginia Tech, an ACC team, from having coached against them when he was the head man at Georgia Tech.
|
|||||||
11-28-20 | Eastern Washington +4 v. Washington State | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Eastern Washington is very eager to play after its opener against Oregon was cancelled. The Eagles have the speed and perimeter shooting to pull the outright upset. Washington State is a young rebuilding team that went 6-12 in the Pac-12 last season. The Cougars are improving, but I don't rate them better than Eastern Washington, which won the Big Sky Conference last season and is picked by many to repeat. The Eagles likely were going to the NCAA Tournament before the season was cancelled. Washington State didn't look sharp in its opener this past Wednesday. The Cougars trailed at halftime before getting past Texas Souther, 56-52, as 12-point home favorites. |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Loyola Marymount v. Minnesota OVER 143 | Top | 73-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Minnesota is going to be a higher scoring team this season. The Gophers have more players who can effectively score and they are playing at a very up-tempo pace. That was evident in Minnesota's first game, a 99-69 win against Green Bay. The Gophers nearly hit the century mark despite missing 27 of 34 shots from 3-point range. Loyola Marymount showed under new coach Stan Johnson that it will be playing much faster, too. The Lions nipped Southern Utah, 85-83, in their opener. A major takeaway from that game was the number of possessions, it exceeded any of the Lions' games from last season. This is just the fourth day of the college basketball season and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to these two teams yet setting this total too low. |
|||||||
11-27-20 | Mercer +13 v. Georgia Tech | 83-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech is coming off a tough, 123-120, four-overtime loss to Georgia State in its opening game two days ago. The Yellow Jackets better not sleep on this opponent, or they could be in trouble. Mercer has just a 15-minute drive so this isn't much of a road trip. The Bears are going to be taking this neighborhood matchup very serious, probably more so than Georgia Tech. This is the first meeting between the teams since 2011. Mercer easily beat North Georgia, 79-48, on Wednesday. A key for the Bears is the return of senior sharpshooter Ross Cummings, who missed much of last season due to a foot injury. Cummings could finish as Mercer's all-time leader in 3-pointers made. The Bears finished last season with an above .500 record in true road games. They dealt East Tennessee State its lone home loss last season with a 16-point win. Mercer has covered six of its past seven away games.
|
|||||||
11-27-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock +3 v. NC-Greensboro | 70-77 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
These are a pair of good teams from small conferences. The game is being played in neutral site Louisville as part of the Wade Houston Classic tournament. Arkansas Little Rock has the advantage of already having played. The Trojans downed Prairie View A&M, 71-66, on Wednesday. NC Greensboro not only hasn't played yet, but the Spartans weren't even able to have any preseason scrimmages against outside competition. I don't see the Spartans being the superior team, so I'll accept these points and back Arkansas Little Rock.
|
|||||||
11-26-20 | Utah State v. South Dakota State +2.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Utah State lost, 85-69, to Virginia Commonweath as a short favorite on Wednesday in its first round game in the Crosscover Classic in Sioux Falls, S.D. It was the fourth straight time the Aggies have failed to cover laying points. Utah State has a lot of inexperience this season. Aggies coach Craig Smith is using the early part of the season to experiment and get playing time for his inexperienced team of which nine members enter the season having never played a minute for the Aggies. So there is a huge unknown quality to Utah State. Not so with South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have been one of the best spread teams in the country covering 20 of their last 26, including losing 79-71, to West Virginia as 11-point 'dogs in their first game of the tournament on Wednesday. The Jackrabbits were hanging tough trailing by four points during the second half, but could not get closer. They have covered six of the last eight times as a 'dog.
|
|||||||
11-25-20 | Eastern Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Wisconsin should be very good again this season returning nearly its entire rotation from its 21-10 team of last season. The Badgers, though, needed a late 15-0 run to beat Eastern Illinois, 65-52, last season. The Panthers had kept the game close trailing by just 46-43 with less than nine minutes remaining. Eastern Illinois went 17-15 last season and returns its top seven scorers, including Josiah Wallace. He was the fifth-leading scorer in the Ohio Valley Conference last season averaging 19.6 points. |
|||||||
11-25-20 | Cal-Irvine +2 v. Pepperdine | 72-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
UC Irvine has a front-court edge, is the stronger defensive team and is much better coached with Russell Turner against Pepperdine's Lorenzo Romar. The Anteaters had a strong chance to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year before the season was cancelled going 21-11. Pepperdine is a mediocre West Coast Conference team that went 16-16 and had one of the worst defenses in the country.
|
|||||||
11-25-20 | Toledo v. Bradley -3 | 59-61 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Bradley won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last season and has good depth this season. The Braves haven't had to endure a full COVID-19 quarantine like Toledo did. The Braves beat the Rockets, 78-66, last season. Bradley coach Brian Wardle knows Toledo coach Tod Kowalcyk having served five seasons under him at Green Bay. So playing Toledo has extra meaning for Bradley. |
|||||||
10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 216 | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
I don't expect the Lakers-Heat to make 39 of 43 (91 percent) free throws like they combined to do in the Heat's 111-108 Game 5 victory on Friday. I do expect both teams to play intense defense and for the pace to be slow in Sunday's Game 6. These are two reasons why I like the Under. There are other factors, too, that point to a lower-scoring game than what the total indicates. Fatigue and being in the bubble for so long are considerations. The Heat have shortened their bench to just two reserves with starting point guard Goran Dragic out. Jimmy Butler is on fumes. Miami has to play a slow-down, half-court, slog-in-the-mud style. They have the mentality, coaching and guts to win this way. The Lakers' greatest fear of LeBron James and Anthony Davis not getting enough help was realized in Game 5. Except for those two superstars, the Lakers didn't get good performances from anybody else. LA's reserves were 5-of-22 shooting from the floor for just 14 points. None of them can be counted on. This puts tremendous pressure on James, who doesn't figure to make 15 of 21 shots from the floor like he did on Friday, and Davis, who isn't 100 percent. Davis is dealing with soreness in his right heel that was reaggravated during Friday's game. Bothered by that, Davis managed just two shots in the fourth quarter. I have no doubt Davis will play Sunday. How effective he'll be with the heel injury and with defensive ace Bam Adebayo guarding him remains to be seen. |
|||||||
10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 41 m | Show |
By far the Heat and Lakers had their finest defensive performances of the playoffs in Game 4 this past Tuesday. The Heat getting star defender Bam Adebayo back and playing more man-to-man defense were keys. After giving up an average of 120 points in the first two games, the Heat have held LA to an average of 103 points during the past two games. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra isn't going to go away from his defensive script from the last two games in which Miami has gone 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS. The Heat are going to stick with plain, old-fashion playoff intensity defense. Adebayo's impact can't be downplayed. He missed Games 2 and 3 with a stiff neck. Adebayo is a rim protector and is the one Miami player who can keep Anthony Davis from dominating the offensive glass. Davis failed to get an offensive rebound in Game 4 after pulling down 13 during the first three games. It takes two to make a total work. I see the Lakers holding up their end especially with Goran Dragic out after he tore the plantar fascia in his left foot during Game 1. That's a serious injury and Dragic isn't coming back soon from it. The ramifications are severe for the Heat. Dragic, not Jimmy Butler, was the Heat's leading scorer in the playoffs entering this series. He also was their top assists guy and one of their key 3-point shooters. The loss of Dragic forces Spoelstra to use sixth man Tyler Herro as his lead ballhandler. Inserting Herro into the starting lineup greatly weakens Miami's bench especially from a scoring perspective. Lakers coach Frank Vogel made a major adjustment in Tuesday's Game 4 putting Davis - the Lakers' best defender - on Butler for the entire game. Butler still had a decent game, but couldn't come close to matching his Superman performance in Game 3 while missing nine of his last 12 shots. These adjustments, coupled with playoff intensity, should result in the Under cashing again. |
|||||||
10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
We have a series after all thanks to Miami making 41 of 80 (51.2 percent) shots from the floor and 21 of 23 (91 percent) free throws in its 115-104 Game 3 victory this past Sunday. Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages with 40 points making 14 of 20 shots from the field. The Lakers haven't lost consecutive games in the playoffs. I expect their defensive intensity to be way up. They've held their last three opponents - Houston, Denver and Miami - to 108 or less points in seven of the last 11 games. I certainly don't expect Butler to repeat that monster performance and for the Heat to come nowhere close to shooting that unbelievably well again. Butler is a tremendous all-around player, but he's not Superman. The Lakers are in the Orlando bubble. They can't go anywhere, or do much except study game film of their miserable Game 3 loss. The Heat aren't going to have Goran Dragic. He's their best ballhandler. Bam Adebayo has a neck strain. He didn't play in Game 3 making Miami's victory all the more remarkable. He's questionable for this matchup. Adebayo is Miami's top defender. But he's also a force on the offensive glass and someone the Lakers have to game plan against. So he's a double-edged sword regarding the total. LeBron James and Anthony Davis committed a combined 15 turnovers on Sunday. James was overdue to have a big turnover game. The Heat are extremely well coached. They can play an effective 2-3 zone. The Lakers were held to just 50 points in the second half. So I have to think that the Heat's No. 1 priority is defense. Their hunger, confidence and street-fighting team makeup should be at a fever pitch for this matchup. This is playoff basketball after all.
|
|||||||
10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | Top | 104-115 | Push | 0 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The plucky Heat weren't going to upset the Lakers even if they were healthy. But now take away Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic - Miami's second and third-best players - the Heat have no chance. Still, the Heat have a lot of street fight mentality installed in them by Erik Spoelstra, Pat Riley and Jimmy Butler. This is a well-coached, tough, gutty team. And this Game 3 is their season. So I don't want to lay this big number with the Lakers. I believe the best way to go is with the Under. The Lakers haven't had a total this high since two series ago when they were going against the small-ball, up-tempo Rockets. The Heat also haven't had an Over/Under this high during their past two series. The Lakers are coming off their worst defensive performance maybe of the entire 17 playoff games giving up 114 points to a wounded Heat squad. Frank Vogel and LeBron James aren't going to stand for that. Expect a much tighter and intense Lakers defensive effort. No snoozing or being overconfident. The Heat know they have to clamp down on the Lakers being plus 13 on offensive rebounds. Adebayo is a long-shot to play. If he did that would reduce that gap. I'm not expecting him to play, though. I am expecting an all-out defensive effort from the Heat and for James to commit more turnovers than the small number he has.
|
|||||||
09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 39 m | Show |
Maybe LeBron James is the Chosen One and his Lakers the anointed world champions. That's probably how this NBA Championship Series is going to get played out. But Miami will make LA sweat and earn it. The Lakers have been idle for four days. They lost the opening game in their playoff series against Portland and Houston. There's going to be a feeling-out process here in this Game 1. There could be Lakers rust. Eric Spoelstra is a top-notch coach. Miami will be well-prepared. The Lakers will need to hit a fair amount of 3-point shots to dent the Heat's 2-3 zone defense. Anthony Davis will have to deal with Bam Adebayo, who is the best defender an opponent can have to square off against Davis. James is going to be facing a swarm of wing players who are accomplished defenders and have experience guarding him - Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. Spoelstra coached James in Miami. This will be James' stiffest test of the postseason. Let's forget the regular season. Erase it. Concentrate on the bubble where the Heat raised their game to an unprecedented level sweeping the Pacers, stunning the Bucks and taking out the Celtics. The Heat's intensity and variety of defenses help them bottle up Giannis Antetokounmpo and then Jayson Tatum. The Heat have been tremendously underrated in the bubble covering 12 of their last 15 games. The Lakers haven't faced this strong of a defense. Portland ranked 27th defensively. Denver was 16th, Houston 15th. James and Davis are the two best players on the court. But the Heat have the next best three in Butler, Abebayo and Goran Dragic, who is having a strong postseason. I'll take the Heat's bench over LA's reserves. None of the Lakers' bench players has been able to match the instant offense of unconscious rookie Tyler Herro. Miami is likely to play more zone defense than the Lakers are used to. The Lakers rank 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. By comparison, the Celtics ranked 13th. There is no home-court in the bubble. This is strictly matchup basketball where coaching is magnified. If the Heat don't steal this first game, they should at least take LA to the wire. |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
Twice the Nuggets have dug themselves out of a 3-1 playoff series hole beating the Clippers and Jazz. No NBA team had ever done that twice during the same postseason. Denver is gutty and resilient. The Nuggets may be out of gas, too. This will be Denver's 19th playoff game. No team has played that many this season. I'm not going to go against the Nuggets here. They've earned too much respect. But if the Lakers don't get them, fatigue might. So I believe the right choice is Under the total. The Nuggets play to the second-lowest pace of any of the original 16 playoff teams. That's not going to change here. Denver knows it has to keep the Lakers out of transition in order to limit fast break points, which is an edge LA has on the Nuggets. Look for the Nuggets to play slow and deliberate. The Lakers aren't a helter skelter team either. They ranked ninth of the 16 playoff teams in tempo. Denver doesn't have a big scoring bench. The Nuggets heavily rely on emerging star Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic for their offense. The Lakers, however, finally may have found the right solution to slowing down Murray - having LeBron James guard him. This was the case during the fourth quarter of the last game. The Nuggets didn't score on eight of 10 fourth quarter possessions when James was on Murray. During this span, Murray was 0-for-3 from the field. Murray, who is averaging nearly 40 minutes per game during the playoffs, clearly was bothered by James' physical style of defense. It's a double-edged sword, though, for the Lakers because it also tires out James to play such strong defense on Murray. James has to sacrifice some of his prolific offense to make this defense sacrifice. All of this is great for the Under. As for Jokic, the Lakers have several big bodies and fouls to deal with him. So he's not going to get any easy baskets. |
|||||||
09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The premise of my handicap on this Game 4 matchup begins with a quirk - the teams have been idle for three full days. The key is figuring out who benefits most from that weird scheduling. I've always thought the Celtics were the better team in this series. I still do. Yet Boston is down 2-1 in the series because of not executing an end game blowing double-digit leads in both of their Game 1 and Game 2 losses, Miami's bench outplaying the Celtics' reserves and Erik Spoelstra out-coaching Brad Stevens, which is tough to do. I don't look at the Celtics losing their new-found momentum with this lengthy time off following their 11-point victory in Game 3 this past Saturday. Instead it's a break for Boston. The Celtics have a starting five and star players advantage on Miami. The Heat don't present the elite defense Toronto did during Boston's previous series. The Heat lack the quickness and defensive studs to counter the size and athleticism of the Celtics' guards and wings. The Heat could exploit their depth and versatility during the first couple of games because they were less fatigued than Boston. The Celtics entered the series having played 10 games in 21 days with their starters logging heavy minutes. The return of Gordon Hayward from an ankle injury also holds a big impact. Not only is Hayward a playmaker who gives the Celtics a fourth excellent option to go with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker, but his ability to log at least 30 minutes keeps a much lesser player like Semi Ojeleye off the court. The Celtics can now go with their starters for 40 or so minutes and not worry about weariness because of the extra time afforded them. When the Celtics have their best five players on the court, the Heat are not a match for them. It's not that big of a fluke the Celtics have covered 73 percent of the time during the past 27 instances when playing on 3 or more day's rest. Rarely does Stevens get out-coached. He may be the best coach in the Eastern Conference. But Spoelstra is in that best coach discussion, too. I think Stevens figures things out during the long break. Putting defensive ace Marcus Smart on Goran Dragic was one good adjustment already made. The Celtics outscored the Heat, 60-36, in the paint in the last game. Boston has four stars. Miami has two with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who is proving himself once again in this series. There's not much else Spoelstra can do. His team isn't as talented as Boston, isn't as good defensively and their conditioning edge has been removed by the long break. |
|||||||
09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
If there is anything we have learned about the Denver Nuggets is they won't quit, or give in. They proved that in coming back from 3-1 playoff deficits TWICE knocking out the Jazz and Clippers. If it wasn't for Anthony Davis hitting a contested 3-pointer right before the buzzer in Sunday's Game 2, this series would be tied instead of Denver down 0-2. The Nuggets had the game. They aren't as good as the Lakers. But the Nuggets have guts and they are not outclassed. So I'm willing to take them with this many points. There is no key number in pro basketball equivalent to the importance of 3 in the NFL. The closest is 6 because that represents two possessions. So getting the hook with 6 at plus 6 1/2 is important. Davis is having a monster series fully living up to his superstar status. LeBron James is as iconic as ever, willing the Lakers to being the favorites to win the world championship. However, the Nuggets have two stars, too. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are underappreciated compared to Davis and James. Jokic had a strong second half in Game 2. I don't think Dwight Howard will be effective anymore in handling Jokic if the Lakers choose to go that matchup route again. Murray played 44 of the 48 minutes in Game 2. When Murray was on the court, the Nuggets were a staggering plus 16 in point differential. |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 206 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
Understandably this is playoff basketball so totals are going to be low. But the Celtics aren't playing the Raptors here. Miami isn't the defensive team that Toronto was. The Celtics are sure to be fired-up after blowing huge leads in the first two games to fall behind 0-2. If Boston builds up another big lead it won't coast. The Celtics will stay on the attack. There's also the chance Gordon Hayward makes his series debut. That would give Boston a legitimate fourth scoring weapon to go with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker, who shot much better in Game 2. The Heat defense got through the Bucks because Milwaukee lacked a quickness advantage. The Heat don't have that edge on the Celtics. Miami, though, has been getting the needed contributions from players besides Jimmy Butler. The Heat scored 106 in the last game despite Butler shooting just 4-of-11 from the floor and scoring a meager 14 points. Miami's motion-laden offense has been successful exploiting Walker's weak defense. The Heat have averaged 109.7 points in regulation during their last seven games facing the Celtics and Bucks, who gave up the eighth-fewest points and ranked first in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. If the Heat are able to build up a big lead, I could envision a bubbling-over frustrated Celtics team committing a lot of fouls. |
|||||||
09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 56 h 49 m | Show |
Right before the NBA shut down, the Lakers were playing better than any team posting a late February victory against the Celtics and early March wins against the Bucks and Clippers. It has taken six months and playing in a bubble, but the Lakers are back to being the best team in the NBA. LeBron James is on a mission. I haven't seen a mega-superstar so committed to winning a championship since Michael Jordan. The Lakers can win going big, or win playing small ball. Their defense is top-notch and they have tremendous versatility to go with James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis. The Lakers handled Damian Lillard, the hottest player in the bubble, and they held the high-scoring Rockets to 99.3 points per game during the last three games of that series. The Nuggets are not in the Lakers' class. The Nuggets are still on Cloud 9 after coming from a 3-1 deficit to pull out a shocking series win against the heavily favored Clippers. They beat the Clippers in Game 7 on Tuesday night. I don't think the Nuggets will be ready for this Game 1 matchup. It comes too soon for them. The Lakes have been idle for six days. Yes, the Lakers lost Game 1 to Portland and Game 1 to Houston before winning the rest of the games in those series without another loss. LA has learned its lesson. Look for the Lakers to come out fully ready after those previous Game 1 mishaps. |
|||||||
09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -133 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -133 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
The scoreboard shows the Heat up 1-0 in this series after winning Game 1 in overtime. I had Boston on the money line in Game 1 and I'm sticking with the Celtics on the money line in Game 2 instead of laying a short number. I'm doing it because I'm convinced the Celtics are the better team. I understand the Heat won Game 1. But the oddsmaker agrees with me as the Celtics are slightly larger favorites than they were in the opening game. Boston should have won Game 1 owning at least a two-possession lead for nearly the entire game. But the Celtics blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead and let the game slip away. The Celtics own the matchup edges. Miami's defense isn't as good as the Raptors, who the Celtics beat in the previous series. The Heat lack the defensive quickness to stay with Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylon Brown. And offensively, Jimmy Butler is really the Heat's only consistent scoring weapon. I certainly don't expect Jae Crowder to score 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting, including 5-of-9 from 3-point range, to come up that big again in Game 2 as he did in the opener. He averaged 10.5 points during the regular season. Walker needs to play better and the Celtics' transition defense needs to be turned up a notch like it was against the Raptors. Those shouldn't areas should not be difficult to fix. I'm not down on the Heat. I respect them enough to play Boston on the money line rather than risk laying a short number. But I've always thought the Celtics to be the better team and an opponent that Miami doesn't match-up as well against as it did against the Bucks. |
|||||||
09-15-20 | Heat v. Celtics -118 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -118 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
The Bucks matched up poorly against the Heat. Perhaps also distracted by spearheading a one-game boycott, the Bucks were drummed out of the playoffs by Miami. Credit to the Heat. But now Miami draws a well-focused opponent it doesn't match up well against. The Heat might have grabbed Game 1 in this series with a situational advantage since they are rested while the Celtics had to go the full seven games to eliminate the Raptors. However, the NBA schedulemakers negated that edge for Miami by scheduling this game four days after Boston took out Toronto. That's enough time for the Celtics to rest, recuperate and fully game-plan for Miami. The Heat, on the other hand, last played a full week ago. So they have to deal with a rust factor and lost momentum. The Heat finished 12th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They stepped up defensively against the Bucks. They did that by keying on Giannis Antetokounmpo and gambling that the rest of the Bucks weren't good enough. That worked because the Bucks weren't the same team inside the bubble they were during their dominant regular season when they won 53 of their first 63 games. The Bucks lacked off-the-dribble threats aside from Antetokounmpo. The Celtics have a different makeup. They don't have one superstar. Instead they have several stars - Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum - a strong bench and the best coach in the league, Brad Stevens. The Celtics actually are going to find scoring easier against the Heat than they did against the Raptors, who had the No. 1 defense in the league. The Celtics are vulnerable to fast backcourts and teams who have multiple shot creators. Aside from Jimmy Butler, the Heat don't have that, nor can they match Boston's trio of star power. The Celtics have the needed defensive flexibility, too, that Milwaukee lacked. The Celtics can play up-tempo if it suits their purpose, or handle a half-court game that Miami favors. Prior to this season, the Heat hadn't won a playoff series since 2016. They lack the necessary deep playoff pedigree that Boston has from reaching the conference finals in 2017 and 2018. Upsetting the flawed Bucks has made the Heat overvalued. The money line price is low enough to back the superior Celtics. |
|||||||
09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 101 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
The Rockets are cooked. They know it and they can't really do anything about it. LeBron James is on a mission to bring the Lakers to the NBA Championship Series. The Rockets have firepower. But the Rockets don't match up well to the Lakers, are outcoached and LA has a huge confidence and psychological edge. This has built up through the last three games, all won by the Lakers after they lost Game 1. The final score in LA's 110-100 Game 4 victory on Thursday was misleading. The Lakers dominated the Rockets leading by 23 points in the fourth quarter before letting up, which they won't do in this potential close-out game. The Lakers outscored the smallish Rockets, 62-24, in the paint, grabbed 26 more rebounds and held a 19-2 fast-break points edge. Even if he were a good coach, which he isn't, Mike D'Antoni doesn't have the lineup flexibility to make proper adjustments. The Rockets have just one style and the Lakers have countered and exposed it. The Lakers have dictated their style and pace the past three games. That's not going to change. The Lakers should have a killer attitude, too, after the Rockets threw a bit of scare into them in Game 4 by cutting the margin to just five points with around a minute left. James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are getting the necessary help from their teammates. Rajon Rondo has been coming up big. James reminds me of Michael Jordan in not just terms of basketball greatness, but in leadership and obsession to win a title willing his teammates to perform at peak efficiency. This is what James said following Game 4: "Obviously, we've got to be better. We got to close out games the right way." Never mind that the Lakers still won by 10. James wasn't happy. I don't think the Rockets' heads are all there. Danuel House Jr. being kicked out of the bubble for a violation of health doesn't help their focus. House averaged 11.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in the playoffs. His departure further exposes the Rockets' lack of depth and fatigue issues. |
|||||||
09-11-20 | Celtics -126 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
First it was OG Anunoby with a 3-pointer at the buzzer and then it was Norman Powell coming up big in two overtimes in Game 6. We've reached Game 7 now in this series and Toronto is out of lives. The stars shine in Game 7 - and the Celtics hold the aces with Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. Toronto was outstanding in Wednesday's Game 6. The Celtics weren't yet the game still went in double overtime. The Raptors also got to shoot seven more free throws in that contest. Toronto also made 41.3 percent of its 3-point shots. The Raptors hadn't hit 40 percent of their 3-point shots all series. Boston's bench and Walker are capable of far better than they showed in Game 6. The Celtics are 17-9-1 (65 percent) off a loss. They also have covered seven of their 10 playoff games with an average victory margin of eight points. I respect the heck out of the Raptors. But I want the Celtics going for me in this Game 7. |
|||||||
09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5 | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Now up 2-1 in the series, the Lakers smell blood. Stifling defense is the Lakers' ticket to beating the Rockets. It's something the Lakers are well aware of since they did it during the fourth quarter in each of their Game 2 and Game 3 victories. Houston is averaging 205 1/2 points during the past two games. The Rockets managed just 20 points in the fourth quarter during the last game. The Lakers are more than capable of playing elite defense. They ranked third in defensive efficiency and fourth in fewest points allowed during the regular season. The Rockets won the first game of this series still pumped and with adrenaline flowing after getting past Oklahoma City in seven games. But the Rockets have hit a fourth quarter wall running out of gas. Houston coach Mike D'Antoni admitted his team's legs got tired in the fourth quarter. The Rockets are the more fatigued team. The Rockets had a day off before Game 3. They'll have a day off before this Game 4. But their tiredness, energy and execution aren't going to be fully restored this late in the bubble with just one day of being idle. The Under has cashed 12 of the past 15 times the Rockets have played with one day's rest. The perception is the Rockets are just all about offense with James Harden and Russell Westbrook spearheading a smallball attack. That's misleading. The Rockets were middle-of-the-pack defensively. The Rockets are the smallest team in the league by design. But the Lakers aren't going to kill Houston inside because Frank Vogel believes LA's best lineup is a small one, too. There wasn't any Dwight Howard in Game 3. There are going to be plenty of 3-point shots. But the Rockets aren't accurate shooters. Both teams also are strong defending against shots from beyond the arc, each ranking in the top eight in defensive 3-point shooting percentage. The teams haven't been up-tempo either. The pace has been slow. That's a key factor that can't be overlooked in making this Under work. |
|||||||
09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
I see too much overreaction to the Celtics in this Game 6 following Boston's, 111-89, blowout victory against the Raptors on Monday. It was surprising how little energy the Raptors came out and exerted in that loss, which puts them on the verge of elimination. Zero chance the Raptors come out lethargic in this one with their season on the line. Boston has more star power, but there is not a class difference between these two teams. The Raptors are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. They are well-coached, battle-tested having won the championship last season and will play with tremendous energy. Yes, Toronto got buried in Game 1 and Game 5. But they won two of the other three games and had a chance to tie at the buzzer in the other one. The Celtics are an elite Eastern Conference team. So is Toronto. It is a mistake to disrespect the Raptors. |
|||||||
09-08-20 | Heat -144 v. Bucks | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
Maybe the Bucks rise above the ashes and stay alive in this series. Milwaukee avoided a painful 4-0 sweep by winning Game 4 in overtime despite missing Giannis Antetokounmpo for nearly the last three quarters. That was a great team effort by the Bucks. But I also see it as their lone highlight of this series. The Bucks are not going to win this game because of three major reasons: 1. Miami is a nightmare matchup for them. 2. Antetokounmpo is unlikely to play because of a sprained ankle. If he does, he'll be severely hobbled. 3. Milwaukee's mental frame is shot due to a loss of confidence and lack of focus that was caused by leading the boycott following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in its home state. Jimmy Butler is now the best player on the court with Antetokounmpo ailing. The Heat are able to exploit the Bucks' perimeter defense while their own defensive strength takes away Milwaukee's strong offensive elements of scoring off the fast break and scoring inside. The Heat gave up the fewest fastbreak points in the league and ranked in the Top 5 in defense inside the paint. Butler and Bam Adebayo are two of the premier defensive players in the NBA. These matchup edges have helped the Heat beat the Bucks in five of seven meetings this season. Now the Heat smell blood. The Bucks aren't right in the head and the great Giannis is hurt. Too bad for Milwaukee because up until the season was put on hold, the Bucks were the best team in the league. That certainly is not the case now. |
|||||||
09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +9 | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
The Clippers blew out the Nuggets in Game 1. The Nuggets, though, came back to beat the Clippers, 110-101, on Saturday. There was nothing fluky about Denver's win either. Nuggets coach Michael Malone made good adjustments and Denver outplayed LA on both ends. The Nuggets swarmed Kawhi Leonard. It was a gamble that paid off. Leonard had a horrible shooting game and the rest of his teammates didn't step up enough. The Clippers entered the reboot having the best bench in the league. But I've not been impressed with how their bench has played during the resumed season. Some of it has been lack of timing since key reserves were missing. The Clippers are back to full strength, but their depth is way overrated. Leonard and Paul George draw superstar labels. However, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray provide Denver with needed star power and go-to scorers so crucial in playoff basketball. Having solid two-way player Gary Harris back is another important and perhaps overlooked element the Nuggets have. Doc Rivers is highly articulate and an excellent player coach. I don't consider Rivers a great strategist, though, and adjustments are needed by the Clippers following their Game 2 upset loss. I see the Nuggets, with their confidence bolstered, staying within single digits of the Clippers. |
|||||||
09-07-20 | Celtics -105 v. Raptors | Top | 111-89 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
The Celtics have more star power than Toronto, are deeper and have the best coach in the Eastern Conference if not all of the NBA in Brad Stevens. OK, so then why is this series tied 2-2? A miracle 3-point play with one-half second left in Game 3 and Boston missing 35 of 42 3-point shots in Game 4 are the reasons. Toronto plays outstanding defense. But the Celtics missed 22 of 27 uncontested looks from beyond the arc in the last game. I expect the Celtics to make a much higher percentage and for stars Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown to play much better in this Game 5. The Celtics are due to bring their "A" game. Even if that doesn't happen, though, I like the Celtics' depth as the series goes deeper and fatigue becomes more of a factor. |
|||||||
09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
Lakers minus 5 1/2 vs. Rockets We've seen this occur before with the Lakers. Just like in LA's previous playoff series, the Lakers were ambushed in Game 1. LA lost to Portland and now was blown out by the Rockets in the series opener. The Lakers responded by destroying the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 while winning the next four games in that series. Part of that Game 2 victory was because the Trail Blazers were tired and in a letdown spot. That could happen to the Rockets, too, since they were coming off a grueling 7-game series against the physical Thunder. LA hadn't played in six days before Game 1. The rust should be off now for the Lakers, especially their reserve and role players who were outplayed. It shouldn't have happened, but the Lakers also were caught off guard by the Rockets' speed. They won't be anymore. LeBron James won't let it happen again. |
|||||||
09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics +1 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
It took a miracle play with a half-second left, but the Raptors got their victory against the Celtics. That happened in Game 3 on Thursday when OG Anunoby hit a long corner 3-pointer to pull out a 104-103 Raptors win. The Celtics still are fuming about that loss. I consider Boston the superior team and the Celtics sure won't be lacking incentive after two days of watching and hearing about the Raptors' tremendous in-bound play to Anunoby. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU versus the Raptors this season. The Celtics have the star power Toronto lacks without Kawhi Leonard. The Celtics have several go-to player options. The Raptors don't have anyone proven to carry them in playoff crunch time since Leonard departed. Boston leads this series yet hasn't played its best basketball yet. That "A" game is due to come right here. The spread couldn't be lower, but note Boston has covered 75 percent of the time in 24 instances of being an underdog this season. The Celtics also have covered six of their seven playoff games. If the 76ers didn't hit a couple of meaningless long 3-pointers in the final 30 seconds off a loss, the Celtics would have an unbeaten postseason spread mark. |
|||||||
09-04-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The Lakers very well could be the best team in the NBA - if they are on their "A" game. I don't think we see that here, though. We certainly didn't see it in the Lakers' Game 1 series matchup against Portland. The Trail Blazers upset the Lakers, 100-93, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs in that series opener. LA opened that series having finished with the worst offense of any of the bubble teams. The combination of LA stepping up its game and Portland running out of gas and being severely banged-up resulted in the Lakers winning the next four games. This brings us to this stage. The Lakers have been idle since Saturday. Six days between games is too long. So there is likely to be some rust. The Rockets struggled with the Thunder before dispatching them in Game 7 on Tuesday. It's a short turnaround after a physical and emotional series. But the Rockets do have a full day to rest and recuperate. They are in a bubble, too. So they should have their full focus and concentration. James Harden is thrilled to be rid of rookie defensive ace Lugentz Dort. There isn't a player in the league who can guard Harden as effectively as Dort. Certainly the Lakers don't have one. The closest might be Alex Caruso. If the Lakers try him on Harden they're going to give up offense. Caruso is 5-for-28 in 3-point shooting since play resumed. I'm confident Harden will return to his normal dominant self free of the pesky Dort. The key is Russell Westbrook. He was plenty rusty returning from a quad injury. But he's had three games now to get back into shape. Westbrook presents a tough matchup for the Lakers. The Rockets are 2-0 against the Lakers in their last two meetings, one of which came in the bubble. Houston won those games by an average of 13 points. The Lakers have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored. |
|||||||
09-03-20 | Raptors -108 v. Celtics | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
It's not a surprise the Celtics lead the Raptors 2-0 in their Eastern Conference Series. Boston has shot 44.7 percent from the floor, while Toronto is hitting just 38.5 percent of its field goals. The Raptors have made only 26.3 percent of their 3-point shots. The positive for the Raptors is they have played their trademark strong defense. The series could be tied 1-1 if Toronto didn't blow a 12-point second half lead. But so far Boston's stars have outshined Toronto's top players. Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet all need to step up. Nick Nurse has to make adjustments because this is where the Raptors really miss Kawhi Leonard. I see this happening. The Raptors don't have the Celtics' star power even with Boston missing Gordon Hayward. But I do expect the Raptors to step up and be smarter with their shots. Nurse has proven he's an above average coach and Toronto should play with super intensity down 0-2 in the series. Toronto's problems have been on offense not defense. So they are correctable.
|
|||||||
09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 218.5 | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
There are multiple superstars involved in this game. But look for defense to carry the day. There were a combined 194 points scored in Game 5 of this series. The Thunder-Rockets combined for 204 points in Game 6. Now we've reached Game 7 where the intensity should be at its peak. So I'm not expecting a scoring explosion, nor an up-temp, fast-paced game. The Rockets have a history of not producing their expected total during the later stages of a series. The Under has cashed 79 percent of the past 28 times the Rockets have played Games 5 through 7 in the postseason. Houston thrives on firing up 3-point shots. Only two teams ranked higher than Oklahoma City in 3-point field goal percentage defense. |
|||||||
09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 218 | Top | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
The Over has cashed in five of the six games during this series. So why go against the grain now and play Under? There are several reasons starting with that these are a pair of top-11 defenses and neither team is up-tempo. There have been an average of 93.5 possessions per game during the series - the slowest pace of any playoff series. However, Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray have been on fire and the teams have been shooting and scoring above their norm. Now we have Game 7. If there ever is going to be defensive intensity and pressure it will come in this game. There's also a new name in the mix - Nuggets guard Gary Harris. He's back healthy and an excellent defender.
|
|||||||
08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
The Bucks lost to the Magic in the first game of their opening series. So they are certainly capable of losing to the Heat, who are much superior to the Magic and match up well to the Bucks. I envision a very tough series for Milwaukee, whose mental focus might not all be there. The Heat have playoff experience, added several strong pieces right before bubble play began and Erik Spoelstra is one of the better coaches in the league. The Heat have proven they can play with the big boys of the East going 8-5 versus the Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics. They dominated the Pacers going 7-1 against them. The Heat played tremendous in sweeping the Pacers in their first-round series winning all four games by nine or more points. Miami beat the Bucks in both of its meetings before the restart. The Bucks defeated the Heat, 130-116, in their lone bubble matchup. That score is highly misleading, though. Miami led by 17 points at halftime. The Bucks really wanted that game since they were off back-to-back losses and Miami didn't have Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Now the Heat are healthy. The Heat are a dangerous foe to Milwaukee because of several reasons. Bam Adebayo could be the most improved player in the league. He's a tremendous defensive player and did one of the best jobs of any player in the league in defending Giannis Antetokoumpo. The Bucks' lone defensive weakness is 3-point defense because they stress inside defense stacking the paint. The Heat shoot 37.9 percent from 3-point range. That was second best in the NBA. Milwaukee led the NBA in scoring. The Bucks did it by being strong on the fast break and also scoring from inside the paint. The Heat gave up the fewest fast-break points in the NBA and also rank among the top-five in paint protection. So it's not some fluke that Miami beat Milwaukee two of three times.
|
|||||||
08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Only once have the Mavericks been a double-digit underdog this season - and they beat the Bucks straight-up on the road in that game. But the combination of the Clippers coming off a 43-point victory against the Mavericks and Dallas being without injured Kristaps Porzingis has caused the oddsmaker to make the Clippers favored by more points in this game than in any other during the series. Maybe the oddsmaker also is thinking Luka Doncic could be hobbled by an ankle injury. If that's the case it would be a mistake. The Clippers buried the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The teams have been idle since giving Doncic much needed recovery time. "The extra two or three days is a plus, certainly. In practice today, he looked pretty good, so going into tomorrow, I don't think he's going to be limited," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle was quoted as saying on Saturday about Doncic. Doncic's guts and heroics have been an inspiration for the Mavericks. They are facing elimination in this game down 3-2 so an all-out effort should be forthcoming. But what about the Clippers' motivation? I have to question it. LA can't be blamed if feeling overconfident coming off its 154-111 Game 5 win. The Clippers also know Porzingis won't be playing. Along with possible overconfidence, the Clippers could lack focus following the events of the past few days. They, along with the Lakers, reportedly were two of the clubs that voted to end the season. How much of their hearts will be in this game? On top of that the Clippers are being asked to cover double-digits. I don't see it. |
|||||||
08-29-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
There are a lot of dynamics that point to a lower-scoring game than the total posted: The teams last played on Monday. Possible rust. Russell Westbrook will make his series debut. This will be just his second game since Aug. 4. Possible rust. Focus could be an issue following the team's boycotting Wednesday's game in order to bring attention to social justice and racial inequality issues. Chris Paul was instrumental in those boycott talks. The series is tied 2-2 so this is a pivotal game. The Rockets live-and-die by the 3-pointer. No team fires up more shots from beyond the arc than Houston. Oklahoma City, though, finished third in 3-point percentage defense. Ace defensive rookie Lugentz Dort is healthy again for the Thunder. He's been a problem for James Harden, who has missed 28 of 39 3-point shots during the last three games.
|
|||||||
08-29-20 | Magic v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
Close out time here for Milwaukee. After being shocked in Game 1, the Bucks have won three in a row. The Bucks' defense stepped up in the fourth quarter of Game 4 when the Magic were semi hanging in holding Orlando to 25 points. I'm expecting a carryover of that Bucks' defensive intensity. The Magic lack the outside shooters to attack the Bucks' lone defensive weakness, which is just average in 3-point defense. Orlando is averaging only 103 points in its last three games. The Magic have shot just 28.9 percent from beyond the arc during these last three games. Defense is the Magic's strength. Orlando ranked fifth during the regular season defensively holding opponents to an average of 108.3 points per game. Unlike every other team in the bubble, the Magic don't have anywhere to go after their season is finished since the games are being played in Orlando. Magic coach Steve Clifford promised his team would go out with a supreme effort. That's going to come on the defensive end. The Bucks averaged 110.5 points during the first two games of the series. Milwaukee has scored 121 in each of the last two games. The Bucks shot 56 percent and 49 percent from the floor during these two last games. The Bucks are a good shooting team, but they aren't that good! The Bucks average 47.6 percent from the floor. There could be a rust factor, too, as Wednesday's game was postponed in the wake of the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis. So this will be the team's first game in five days. The Bucks could be bothered mentally, too, by all that has transpired since they were the ones who led the boycott of Wednesday's games. |
|||||||
08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
Dramatic victory by the Mavericks on Sunday nipping the Clippers, 135-133, in overtime at the buzzer on a 3-pointer by Luka Doncic. That Dallas victory evened this playoff series at 2-2 and had Clippers coach Doc Rivers calling his team emotionally weak. It's too bad Dallas can't savor that victory longer. But the Mavericks can't. I don't see them being able to step up again in such a short time frame against a superior foe that isn't going to lack motivation and should be fully aroused. The Clippers are the deeper teams. That's going to matter more and more as the series continues. Doncic is playing on a tender left ankle. Kristaps Porzingis is a game-time decision with a sore knee. He missed Sunday's game, which put an extra burden on Doncic and the rest of the Mavericks. The Mavericks still won with tremendous effort and grit after falling behind by 21 points. But the bill for that effort comes due here. Dallas is 1-5 ATS the last six times following a victory. Even with that win and cover, Dallas still is 2-6 ATS the past eight times versus the Clippers. Paul George is way overdue to shoot better. He's missed 21 of 25 shots from beyond the arc during the last three games. The looks and open floor are there for George. It's not the Mavericks' mediocre defense that is causing George to miss. So a correction is coming. If George plays his normal stellar game, the Clippers should prevail by double-digits. Since I wrote this word has come down that Porzingis won't play. The line has gone up because of it but I still would lay single-digits with the Clippers. |
|||||||
08-24-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Blazers | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
No doubt the Lakers are the superior team. That's not the question here, though. The question is can the Lakers cover this mid-size number? Yes for three big reasons: 1. LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Trail Blazers can't control either one. They don't have the elite defense to do that. 2. Injuries. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are both playing hurt and at less than 100 percent. Big man Zach Collins is out making the task of guarding Davis even more difficult. 3. A heavy fatigue factor working against the Trail Blazers. Portland has had to play every matchup, including an extra play-in game, like it was a Game 7 matchup. This has taken a huge mental and physical toll. The Trail Blazers have one the thinnest benches in the league, made worse by injuries. Their starters are exhausted because they've had to go extra minutes while not having the customary two days off between games, nor a home playoff game to get a crowd lift and raise spirits. Take a look at the foul situation from Saturday's Game 3. The Lakers shot 43 free throws to Portland's 19. Was the officiating bad? I didn't think so. The Trail Blazers are just a tired team so they can't play playoff-caliber defense without fouling. The Lakers made only 65 percent of their free throws. They also committed 17 turnovers. So LA didn't come close to playing its "A" level game. Yet the Lakers still won by eight points after winning by 23 points in Game 2. Portland is out of gas since its Game 1 upset win. That got the Lakers' attention. So don't expect a letdown from LA. The Lakers know to keep their foot on the gas here.
|
|||||||
08-23-20 | Celtics -7.5 v. 76ers | 110-106 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
The Celtics have shown and proven that there is a clear class difference between these two teams with the 76ers missing Ben Simmons. That much we know. The key question here is can Boston cover this large of a spread leading the series, 3-0? I do. The 76ers had their chance to win Game 3 and thus make it a series. But they didn't. They choked. The 76ers blew a lead with 2:14 left. Despite outrebounding Boston, 20-3 on the offensive glass, getting Jayson Tatum in foul trouble and shooting 10 more free throws than Boston, the 76ers still lost by eight points. So they didn't even cover as 6-point 'dogs. Boston should play better. The 76ers are cooked - and they know it. No team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. I don't trust the 76ers' mental fragility. I think they are badly outcoached, too. A double-digit Boston victory should be in the offering here. |
|||||||
08-22-20 | Lakers -7 v. Blazers | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers are heavily reliant on Damian Lillard. There are two major concerns about Lillard in this Game 3 series matchup. It's not just Lillard playing with a dislocated finger. It's how the Lakers defended him during their 111-88 victory this past Thursday. They boxed him at the top of the key, limiting his space to shoot. It threw off Lillard's long-range shooting. If Lillard is hampered - both physically and strategically - Portland is in trouble. I don't trust the rest of its players to step up. CJ McCollum is dealing with a broken bone in his back. He's 4-for-13 from 3-point range in the series. Carmelo Anthony has missed 17 of 21 shots from the floor in the series and Jusuf Nurkic is 8-of-21 from the field. On top of this, big man Zach Collins is out with an ankle injury. He's done for the playoffs. The Trail Blazers lack the defense to contain Anthony Davis. The Lakers destroyed the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 with LeBron James contributing only 10 points. Davis tore the Trail Blazers to shreds with 31 points playing less than 30 minutes. Portland could put Wenyen Gabriel on Davis with Collins out. The problem is Gabriel contributes no offense. The Trail Blazers were minus 11 during Gabriel's 21 minutes on the court. I'm not expecting to see the Lakers squad of Game 1, the one that missed 32 of 37 shots from 3-point range and lost 100-93. The Lakers have huge matchup edges now and smell blood. The Trail Blazers are banged up, don't play defense and are carrying a heavy fatigue load. They had to gut their way through eight seeding games and then the play-in game in two weeks to reach the playoffs. Many times Lillard had to carry them with monster scoring performances. Portland's players have logged far more tough minutes than the Lakers. The Lakers are the fresher and superior team.
|
|||||||
08-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +5 | 130-122 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Let's go back to early in the second half of Game 1 with the Mavericks leading the Clippers by five points. It was at that point that Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks' best big man and second-best player, was unfairly ejected. That cost Dallas the game. The Mavericks then whipped the Clippers, 127-114, in Game 2 on Wednesday. It was clear Dallas was the superior team. Keep in mind there is no homecourt advantage because these games are all inside the Orlando bubble. This reduces the zig-zag theory of situational basketball where the losing team comes back to win. Now the matchups and coaching are more pure. So just where are the Clippers' advantages that justify them being made a mid-sized favorite for this Game 3? I can't find them. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. OK, two superstars. Luka Doncic and Porzingis give the Mavericks two stars, too, with Porzingis being the best big man on the court. You can make the argument that Doncic is as valuable as Leonard. Coaching? I'll take Rick Carlisle over Doc Rivers especially when it comes to matchup strategy. I consider Carlisle one of the more underrated coaches in the league, while the media-savvy Rivers gets far more publicity. Scoring? The Mavericks had the most efficient offense in NBA history. Bench? The Clippers are supposed to have the best bench in the league. But key reserve Montrezl Harrell isn't in full shape yet having just played two games since being out and starting point guard Patrick Beverley likely remains out due to a calf strain. Dallas' reserves outscored the Clippers' bench by 30 points in Game 2. Beverley's absence is huge. He's an ace defender. The Mavericks are guard heavy and tall in the backcourt.
|
|||||||
08-21-20 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
You can pull out the fork. The 76ers are finished. Mentally fragile, missing star Ben Simmons, unable to win away from Philadelphia and totally outcoached by the Celtics, the 76rs aren't rising to upset Boston in this Game 3 after losing by eight points and 27 points during the first two games of this series. Minus Simmons, a tremendous two-way player, the 76ers are not only lost on offense but clueless defensively. They don't have the answers, nor the coaching acumen to stop the Celtics' pick-and-rolls and accurate perimeter shooting. It doesn't matter if the Celtics are minus Gordon Hayward. They are a deep team and the 76ers can't slow down Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. The 76ers are 12-28 away from home. They quit in Game 2. They don't have the matchup answers, nor ability to come up with an effective defensive game plan to stop the Celtics. Maybe the 76ers put forth a supreme effort here down 0-2 in the series. Maybe. But the Celtics still have way too many things in their favor to not cover this mid-range point spread number.
|