Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-22-18 | Suns v. Bucks -4.5 | 105-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
First the bad news. Giannis Antetokonumpo isn't going to play. Now the good news, the point spread is greatly reduced because of that and the Bucks still should be able to take care of business against a bottom-feeder they have dominated. Milwaukee has defeated Phoenix five consecutive times, including 113-107 at Phoenix on Nov. 22. The Bucks didn't have Antetokounmpo for that game either. But former Sun Eric Bledsoe and Kris Middleton made up for Antetokonumpo's absence by scoring a combined 70 points. The Bucks will have Malcolm Brogdon back after he missed the Bucks' last game. The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode going 1-4 in their last five games. Their losses during this time frame have come to teams much better than the Suns - Warriors, Heat twice and 76ers. Phoenix, by contrast, is fat and happy coming off a 108-100 upset road victory against the Nuggets. The Suns had dropped their previous three road matchups by a combined 44 points. Phoenix has failed to cover five of the last six times following a straight-up victory.
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01-22-18 | 76ers v. Grizzlies +3.5 | 101-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The 76ers are riding an impressive three-game win streak beating three of the best Eastern Conference teams - the Raptors, Celtics and Bucks. The 76ers host the Bulls on Wednesday. But first is this nonconference matchup against Memphis. The 76ers are talented. They also are young, possibly short-handed in the backcourt with JJ Redick out and Jerryd Bayless questionable due to a sore wrist and excited like the rest of Philadelphia about the Eagles reaching the Super Bowl following Sunday's upset victory against the Vikings. So the 76ers may lack the focus necessary to win a road game against a top-five defensive team. The Grizzlies are under-the-radar. They are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last six games. They also are 5-0-1 ATS during their past six home contests and have won six of their last eight at FedEx Forum. Memphis also has dominated this series beating the 76ers nine straight times.
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01-22-18 | Jazz -135 v. Hawks | Top | 90-104 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
One of the most difficult schedules in the league and Rudy Gobert missing 26 games has contributed to the Jazz's disappointing 19-27 record. But now Gobert is back and the schdule has lightened up for Utah. The Jazz have won two of their last three while averaging 120 points during this span, their highest three-game offensive span of the season. Utah just played one of its best offensive games of the season in beating the Clippers, 125-113, this past Saturday. I'm seeing a buy sign on Utah - at least against this opponent. The Hawks are 13-32 on the season. That's tied with Sacramento for the worst mark in the league. The Hawks are better at home, but still have lost 13 of 22 games at Philips Arena. The Jazz are 4 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. So this becomes almost a must-win spot for Utah considering the lowly caliber of opponent.
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01-21-18 | Nets v. Pistons UNDER 209 | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
There are a lot of ingredients here that point to this game going Under the total. Let's start with the situation. It's a day game. That's often a plus for the Under. It's a stop-the-pain game for Detroit, losers of four in a row. It's the Nets' revenge game of the year. They suffered their worst home loss of the season 11 days ago losing to the Pistons, 114-80. Brooklyn was in a vulnerable spot for that game having just taken the Raptors to overtime before losing by one point the night before. Their energy was lacking. It won't be here. Now let's talk current form. The Nets have slowed things down ranking in the middle of the pack in tempo during the last two weeks. Brooklyn ranks last in offensive efficiency during this span, too. However, the Nets have played stronger defense in January than they did earlier in the season. If you discount that bad performance against the Pistons, the Nets have held five of their last nine opponents to fewer than 101 points. Only two opponents in the last 10 games have scored more than 107 points on the Nets during regulation. The Nets just held the Heat to six points under their season average in a 101-95 home win this past Friday. The Pistons rank 25th in scoring. They are a bottom-10 team, too, in field goal percentage and free throw shooting. Now let's discuss matchup. There are key players back from injury who are pluses for the Under. The Nets have back DeMarre Carroll and D'Angelo Rusell. Both are underrated defensive players. Russell played 14 minutes against the Heat after missing the previous 32 games following knee surgery. He was rusty shooting-wise, as expected, but provided a defensive spark. Detroit has reserve sparkplug Stanley Johnson back from a hip injury. Johnson is a stiff on offense, but a good defender.
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01-20-18 | Mavs v. Blazers OVER 208 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
Since the end of Christmas both Dallas and Portland have become strong offensive, rather than defensive, teams. But the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught up to this. Dallas has reached triple digits in eight of its last nine games. The Mavericks have scored 114 points or more in six of those nine games. Portland is on a streak of 10 straight triple digit scoring games. The Trail Blazers have scored 110 or more points in eight of those 10 games. During this time span, both teams are ranking in the top-five in offensive efficiency and in the bottom-10 in defensive efficiency. Increased tempo and strong guard play has contributed to this. Rookie Dennis Smith Jr. has started to live up to his hype, while the Trail Blazers are finding extra minutes for Shabazz Napier joining sharpshooters Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum in the backcourt giving Portland an effective small-ball lineup. |
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01-20-18 | Raptors v. Wolves -3 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves are in stop-the-pain mode and catch the Raptors off a huge, physical 86-83 home win against the Spurs last night. That was a hugely satisfying victory for the Raptors. It's hard to imagine they are going to be as hungry for this non-conference matchup as the Timberwolves, losers of two in a row. Minnesota hasn't lost three consecutive games all season. But the Timberwolves are off back-to-back road losses to the Magic and Rockets. They looked past the Magic and paid the price. There's no shame in losing to the Rockets at Houston especially with James Harden back in the Rockets' lineup like he was for that game. The Timberwolves are 18-6 at Target Center this season. Their last six home games have all been double-digit victories, including wins against the Cavaliers. Thunder and Trail Blazers.
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01-20-18 | Montana v. Montana State +7 | 67-52 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Granted Montana is playing well. However, I want the home underdog going for me in this state rivalry matchup. |
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01-20-18 | Thunder +3.5 v. Cavs | 148-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Lot of superstars with a lot of egos. They're all going to be together here in this nationally televised day game. This is just the fifth time the Thunder will be underdogs this season. They are 3-1 ATS as 'dogs. Oklahoma City has gone 21-13 since opening 4-7. The Thunder have won three in a row. Cleveland is 1-4 in its last five games and has been terrible as a favorite failing to cover 12 of the last 13 times in that role. Oklahoma City has the far superior defense and just got back defensive ace Andre Roberson. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday so their energy and pride levels should be off the charts.
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01-19-18 | Pacers -125 v. Lakers | 86-99 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Thanks to Victor Oladipo's All-Star-caliber season, the Pacers have reached mid-level respectability. The Lakers are back to being a bottom level type team losting 12 of their last 17 games. The Pacers played flat in a 100-86 road loss to Portland last night. But they were 5-1 SU and ATS in their previous six games. It's not too much to ask the Pacers to beat the Lakers especially considering all of LA's key injuries. The Lakers will be missing their starting backcourt of Lonzo Ball (knee) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Achilles). Ball leads the Lakers in assists and rebounds. In addition, the Lakers also could be missing their two top scorers, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram. Both are banged up. The Lakers' depth isn't nearly strong enough to compensate for so many missing starters.
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01-19-18 | Spurs +6.5 v. Raptors | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
No Kawhi Leonard here. Rudy Gay reamins out, too. Still, this is too many points for the Raptors to lay to an elite team. Gregg Popovich is an "A" coach and he has a strong bench. Even without Leonard, the Spurs have gone 25-12 in the games he's missed. Toronto hasn't been playing that well losing two of its past three games and going 2-4 ATS in its last six. Only once in their last six games have the Raptors won by more than five points.
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01-19-18 | Indiana +15.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 57-85 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
There are a lot of peaks and valleys during the long college basketball season. Right now Indiana is playing well and Michigan State isn't. The Hoosiers have won five of their last six, including their last three. Indiana is playing tremendous defense, getting strong play from Juwan Morgan and rebounding production from its guards. Michigan State would be 0-3 in its last three games if not for a home overtime victory against Rutgers. The Spartans are 1-6 ATS the past seven times playing an above .500 opponent. They are going to look to run more being at home. Indiana, though, ranks No. 2 in the Big Ten in steals and turnover margin at plus 3.7. Michigan State, by contrast, ranks near the bottom in turnover margin at minus 3.2. The Hooisers have covered the past five times they've met opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They have stepped up their play enough where they can be trusted to hang in on the road against the Spartans especially taking this big of a number.
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01-18-18 | Pacers v. Blazers OVER 213 | 86-100 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
The perception is Portland is a strong defensive team and a below average offensive club. The season statistics bear that out where the Trail Blazers rank eighth defensively and 20th in scoring. But since the start of January those perceptions have turned wrong. The Trail Blazers have become a top-five offense in terms of points per possession and their defense ranks 26th since the calendar turned to 2018. Star point guard Damian Lillard is close to 100 percent. He's averaged 26 points in his last four games while shooting 50.7 percent from the floor. The Trail Blazers have started to play more small ball going with three guards - Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Shabazz Napier, who shined in Lillard's absence. This means increased tempo. The Pacers remain without their rim protector Myles Turner, who ranks second in the NBA in blocked shots. The Pacers have been playing well despite the absence of Turner. Indiana is averaging 111 points per game game during its last six games. Victor Oladipo has emerged as a star ranking 12th in scoring at 24.3 points per game. |
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01-18-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Youngstown State +3 | 92-78 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker has the wrong favorite here. Illinois-Chicago should not be a conference road favorite. The Flames have won only once in eight away contests this season. |
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01-17-18 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 148 | 77-73 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Two strong defenses square off here in what should be an intense conference matchup. San Diego State is No. 1 in the Mountain West Conference in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The Aztecs could catch the Bulldogs minus two of their three best guards, including their point guard and most accurate 3-point shooter. Both have eligibility problems that need to be fixed. |
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01-17-18 | Fresno State v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 77-73 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
San Diego State is the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are 7-1 at home and have revenge for a home loss to Fresno State last season. Fresno State could be missing guards Jaron Hopkins and Jahmel Taylor. They are the third and fourth leading scorers on the Bulldogs. Taylor ranks fifth in the Mountain West in 3-point shooting percentage. Neither player traveled with the team on Tuesday because they are not technically enrolled in school. There's the possibility this problem may not get straighten out before tip-off. San Diego State is at its best against smaller, perimeter-shooting based teams such as Fresno State. So the loss of two key guards really would hurt the Bulldogs. Fresno State has failed to cover in six of its last seven Mountain West Conference matchups. |
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01-17-18 | Knicks v. Grizzlies OVER 202 | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
The Knicks haven't been playing much defense surrendering triple digits in nine of their last 10 games. Sparked by the return of Tim Hardaway Jr., though, the Knicks have been producing offensively. New York has scored 103 or more points in its last seven games. The Grizzlies just scored 123 points in their last game and are playing more up-tempo. There's a chance Marc Gasol doesn't play due to illness, but I still like this total to go Over based on how poorly the Knicks are playing defense and how well Memphis looked offensively in its last game with crisp passing and unselfish play. The Over has cashed 12 of the last 16 times the Knicks have visited the Grizzlies.
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01-17-18 | Southern Illinois v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 136 | 65-79 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are coming off a rare higher scoring game, but this is a team that has been consistently under this number. In fact, their first five MVC games were all 129 points or lower. Last game, they shot the ball extremely well and they won 81-65. I think that game was the exception rather than the rule. That last game though is giving us value on the number here. Southern Illinois and Loyola Chicago both like to slow the game down. There is no reason this tempo should be quick at all. Neither of these team get many second chance points, and that is a clear help here. |
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01-17-18 | Duquesne +6 v. St. Louis | 63-76 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
The marketplace has been slow to see the full improvement with Duquesne this season. The Dukes rank among the top three teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference in defense and I believe they can hang with St. Louis. They have won and covered four of their last five games. |
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01-16-18 | Drake +6.5 v. Northern Iowa | 54-68 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
I like backing underdogs in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference especially here with much-improved Drake. The Bulldogs have won and covered five of their last six games. I see them hanging in against Northern Iowa. |
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01-16-18 | Wolves v. Magic +8 | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Fresh off their first 5-0 homestand since 2001, the Timberwolves get ready to face a big road test against the Rockets on Thursday. But first Minnesota must play at Orlando today. It's going to be difficult for the talented - and youthful - Timberwolves to take the Magic serious. Orlando has lost seven in a row. I smell a dangerous situation for the Timberwolves here. I suspect Minnesota is going to be too overconfident for this game. Orlando is more competitive now that its two leading scorers, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, are healthy. The Magic have lost by seven points or fewer in five of their last seven defeats. The Magic have had three full days to get ready for this matchup having last played on Friday. Minnesota is a sparkling 23-6 versus Western Conference foes. However, the Timberwolves are a perplexing 6-10 against Eastern Conference teams. They have a bad history, too, at Orlando losing eight of the past nine times there. The Magic have covered eight of the last 10 games against the Timberwolves. Minnesota won by just six when they hosted the Magic earlier this season.
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01-15-18 | Maryland +7 v. Michigan | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Maryland has had Michigan's number winning five of the last six times the teams have met, including a victory in Ann Arbor last season. The Terrapins catch the Wolverines off a huge 82-72 win against rival Michigan State this past Saturday. I doubt the Wolverines can regain their full intensity for this matchup following that huge win. Maryland is out for redemption having suffered a 91-69 loss to Ohio State on Thursday.
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01-15-18 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -138 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
The Lakers are fat and happy after opening their road trip with an overtime victory against the Mavericks this past Saturday. The Grizzlies have been playing better. They are are 3-2 in their five home games, but off an 87-78 road loss to Denver. That game was on Friday and ended the Grizzlies' string of six straight games of scoring triple-digits. The Grizzlies were idle during the weekend and should be ready for this early-start MLK Day matchup. Memphis is the stronger defensive club. The Grizzlies have defeated the Lakers the past six times at home. The Lakers are playing for the fourth time in seven days. They won't be helped by an earlier start time than normal for them. LA also is banged-up as both Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram are questionable.
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01-15-18 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 213 | 119-104 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Both teams carry a high fatigue rating that isn't going to be helped playing at this early start time. That means tired jump shooters. The Knicks are playing for the third time in four days, including going into overtime on Sunday. Kristaps Porzingis logged nearly 44 minutes yesterday. The Nets also are playing for the third time in four days. The Nets have gone Under in seven of their last eight games. This is a rivalry game, too, so the defensive intensity should be up.
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01-15-18 | Hornets v. Pistons -150 | 118-107 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Charlotte isn't a good road team. The Hornets have lost 13 of their 18 away contests. Charlotte is 2-11 versus .500 or better clubs when playing on the road. The Pistons are 13-5 at home. Detroit is in a strong scheduling advantage here since this is an early start because of Martin Luther King Day. The Hornets ran out of gas on Saturday night after also playing on Friday. Now they're playing a very early Monday game making this their third game in four days.
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01-15-18 | Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 205 | 118-107 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Charlotte is averaging just 95 points in its last two games. The Hornets face a severe fatigue factor here playing for the third time in four days, which is made worse by this being a very early daytime start because of Martin Luther King Day. So the Hornets are not going to have interest in running and their perimeter game could be off because of tired legs. This likely means a lot of standing around on offense watching Dwight Howard hog the ball inside and miss free throws. He's shooting less than 53 percent from the foul line. The Pistons rank fifth defensively. Detroit has held its past four opponents at home to an average of 91 points per game. The teams met early in the season and the Pistons beat the Hornets, 102-90, at home. |
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01-14-18 | Pacers v. Suns +4 | 120-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
Granted, asking the Suns to cover a short number carries a certain risk. Phoenix has some young talent, but is in clear rebuild mode. Still, the spot, situation and history set up well for the Suns to stay close - if not pull the outright upset. The Pacers won't have center Myles Turner, their best big man and second-best player next to Victor Oladipo. He'll miss a third straight game due to an elbow injury. Indiana takes to the road for the first time in 11 days fat and happy after overcoming a 22-point deficit to defeat the Cavaliers, 97-95, on Friday night. The Pacers have lost their last three away matchups falling by a combined 57 points to the Bucks, Bulls and Pistons. This marks only the Pacers' third game versus a Western Conference opponent since Dec. 14. Indiana lost to Dallas by four points at home and were blown out by Minnesota at home by 17 points the past two times it faced a Western Conference foe. The last time Indiana played a road game against a Western Conference team was way back on November 29. The Suns aren't as good as the Timberwolves and Mavericks. But they are home where they have covered five of the last six times against the Pacers. All together, the Suns have covered 11 of the last 13 times versus the Pacers. Phoenix also should be motivated after a 112-95 home loss to Houston this past Friday. The Suns were short-handed in the backcourt, but expect to have back point guard Isaiah Canaan and swingman Josh Jackson. The return of Canaan frees up rising superstar Devin Booker to play other positions besides point guard setting up favorable matchups. The Suns have responded well following a blowout home loss covering 72 percent of the time in their next game during the past 27 instances. They also are 6-1-2 ATS the past nine times after not covering the spread in their previous game.
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01-14-18 | St. Joe's v. Massachusetts OVER 146 | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
St. Joe's is averaging 83.6 points during its last three games while stepping up the pace. The Over has cashed the last six times St. Joe's has played. The over has cashed in four of UMass's last five games. |
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01-13-18 | Florida International v. UTEP OVER 137 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
These two teams have gone Over during their past eight meetings. Look for that tend to continue today. |
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01-13-18 | Stanford +4 v. Washington | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm going to take the points in this battle of two surprise, overachieving teams. Stanford has won and covered three in a row. Washington already has surpassed last season's Pac-12 win total. The Huskies, though, have been fortunate going 9-1 in games decided by less than 10 points. The Huskies have covered just one of their last eight home contests.
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01-13-18 | Thunder -120 v. Hornets | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The Thunder are in stop-the-pain mode losing three in a row. The latest loss was to Minnesota, which has emerged as an up-and-coming power. Now the Thunder drop down in class facing a non-playoff Eastern Conference team, Charlotte. Oklahoma City holds a huge talent edge here. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday while the Hornets beat Utah, 99-88, last night. The Jazz weren't sharp after upsetting the Wizards as a 7 1/2-point 'dog in their previous game. The last time Charlotte played without rest was Dec. 27 at Golden State. The Hornets lost that game by 25 points to the Warriors. The Thunder have covered 10 of their last 14 times when playing on two days rest.
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01-13-18 | Evansville v. Drake UNDER 133 | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
I like going Under in Missouri Valley Conference games. The pace is slower and teams are more deliberate taking ample time off the shot clock. This matchup follows that pattern. Evanville is one of the more methodical teams in the country. This is going to bother Drake. The Under has cashed in the Purple Aces' last four games.
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01-13-18 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 216 | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Not only is this the Lakers' first road game in 12 days, but it is an extremely early start at 11 a.m. Pacific time. That's a major plus for the Under. So is the way the Lakers have been playing defense. LA held the Kings to 86 points on Tuesday in a 99-86 victory. The Lakers followed that up by defeating the Spurs, 93-81, on Thursday. The Spurs had a number of starters out, but do possess excellent depth. The Lakers held San Antonio to 40.8 percent shooting from the floor while forcing 20 turnovers. Dallas ranks 10th in the league defensively holding foes to 104.4 points per game. The Mavericks held the Magic and Knicks to 100 and 99 points, respectively, during their last two home games. This matchup is going to be heavily influenced by a pair of rookie point guards, Lonzo Ball and Dennis Smith Jr. Ball is shooting 35.8 percent from the field. Smith has made just 39.4 percent of his field goals.
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01-12-18 | Nets +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Should the worst team in the NBA be laying points, especially this many, to any opponent? My answer is no. Brooklyn is four games better than Atlanta in the standings. It's not a fluke. The Nets are the better team. The spot is ripe, too, for the Nets to defeat the Hawks. Atlanta is returning home following a five-game, nine day road swing fat and happy after upsetting the Nuggets in Denver two nights ago. Focus could be a real problem for the youthful, rebuiilding Hawks especially knowing nine of their next 10 games will be played at Philips Arena their home base. By contrast, the Nets should be extremely fired-up after being embarrassed at home by the Pistons, 114-80, Wednesday night. That was the Nets' worst home loss of the season. Brooklyn had been below-the-radar prior to that loss having lost by only one point in overtime to the Raptors in their previous game and coming within five points or fewer during their past five games before that. The Nets have the second-best ATS mark in the league at 25-16, including covering six in a row until the Detroit debacle. The Nets have covered 73 percent of their last 15 away games, too. Brookly still aspires to be a playoff team, at this point, being six games out of the final playoff spot in the East. The Hawks have no such aspirations.
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01-12-18 | Monmouth v. Niagara -120 | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on Niagara after the Purple Eagles won consecutive road games against Siena and Marist. |
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01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | 121-115 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Take away Blake Griffin, Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic and the Clippers shouldn't be a road favorite against the Kings especially carrying a heavy fatigue like they do for this matchup. The Clippers are playing for the fourth time in six days, third time in five days and on back-to-back nights. They are in a huge letdown spot after stunning the Warriors, 125-106, at Golden State last night. Lou Williams was the hero for the Clippers against the Warriors scoring 50 points. Williams is having a fantastic season. He's the leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year honors. Williams, however, has a history of not being nearly as effective when his minutes go up. Williams has logged 76 minutes in his past two games spanning the past three days. It wouldn't shock me if his shooting was off today - and the Clippers have no other consistent scorers to rely on with their many injuries. The Kings are more respectable with De'Aaron Fox back in the lineup. Fox scored 18 points and dished off seven assists when the Kings defeated the Nuggets by eight points at home three games ago. The Clippers and Kings meet again Saturday at Staples Center so the Kings definitely want to get the home victory. |
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01-11-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Elon OVER 156.5 | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
NC Wilmington averages 80.3 points per game. Elon averages 74.5 points a game. But what makes this a strong Over play is both team's defenses are terrible, especially Wilmington's, and both teams have been playing at a faster pace since league play. Wilmington ranks 344th defensively surrendering 85.9 points a game. The Seahawks rank near the bottom in many defensive statistical categories. They have given up an average of 90.6 points in their last three games. Elon can take advantage with its solid outside shooting. The Over has cashed in 13 of Wilmington's last 16 games while the Over has cashed in Elon's past seven home games. |
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01-11-18 | Celtics -130 v. 76ers | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm happily surprised to see this line open so low. Boston definitely is the superior team. The Celtics have proven that during the first two meetings this season beating the 76ers by an average of 10.5 points in sweeping both games one of which was played in Philadelphia. Both teams are in good form. But the Celtics have won six in a row. Boston leads the NBA in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Celtics have the top point spread mark in the NBA at 26-15-2, will have the best player on the court in Kyrie Irving and the better coach, Brad Stevens. Al Horford missed Boston's last game with a knee injury, but is expected to play while the 76ers will be mimus backup center Amir Johnson due to illness. |
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01-10-18 | LSU v. Arkansas -9 | 75-54 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Arkansas is in stop-the-pain mode following road losses to Mississippi State and Auburn. But now the Razorbacks return home where they have won the past 11 times dating back to last season, covering five of their last six at Bud Walton Arena. They catch LSU in a letdown spot. The Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 69-68 road upset of then No. 11 ranked Texas A&M. LSU achieved this victory by coming back from a five-point deficit with 12.4 seconds left. LSU immediately lost following big wins against Michigan in the Maui Invitational, Houston at home and Memphis on the road. This is a pattern with the Tigers, who are 6-15-1 ATS following a victory. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in scoring and field goal percentage. They hold a tremendous home-court advantage.
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01-10-18 | Magic +10.5 v. Bucks | 103-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
I understand it's difficult to get behind Orlando, which has lost 14 of its last 15 and is 3-12 ATS during this span. I will point out the Magic led both the Cavaliers and Mavericks at halftime during their last two games and that the Magic have their two best scorers, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, healthy again. But much of this handicap is a fade on the Bucks. Only twice since December - a span of 17 games - have the Bucks won by double-digits. Milwaukee has failed to cover during its past seven games versus opponents with a losing record. The Bucks also host Golden State on Friday in their next game. Milwaukee then goes on the road to take on the Heat and Wizards Sunday and Monday. So the backdoor should swing wide open for the Magic in case the Bucks do build up a lead. There would be no reason for Jason Kidd to play his starters big minutes here especially super star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been dealing with sore knees and even recently sat out a game.
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01-10-18 | Mavs v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Charlotte is poised to make a move. The Hornets are coming off a 3-1 West Coast trip highlighted by a victory against the Warriors. Charlotte is feeling confident and rested having last played on Friday. The Hornets are just 15-23, but they also have played the toughest schedule in the NBA in terms of opponent's winning percentage. Charlotte's schedule lightens up starting here. Dallas is playing for the fifth time in eight days and without rest. The Mavericks just defeated the Magic, 114-99, at home last night. Dallas has beaten some good teams - Spurs, Wizards, Raptors, Bucks and Thunder - but is 9-20 the past 29 times when facing opponents with a losing record, including 4-11 during the last 15 instances. The Hornets average 105 points a game. Dallas is 3-20 when giving up triple-digits. The Mavericks are vulnerable to Dwight Howard being one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Howard ranks fourth in the league in rebounding.
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01-10-18 | UCF v. Connecticut +1 | 53-62 | Win | 102 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
There are a lot of ebbs and flows to the college basketball season. Connecticut was going through a low period. But I see a buy sign now on the Huskies following their 70-65 win against East Carolina especially being home. The Huskies have won the last seven times against Central Florida. |
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01-09-18 | Heat v. Raptors -3.5 | 90-89 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
The Raptors have won five in a row averaging 121.8 points per game during this span. |
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01-09-18 | Ball State v. Ohio -1 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Ohio is 7-1 at home this season and catches Ball State traveling out of Indiana for the first time since before Thanksgiving. Often times a team that had a long winning streak just end doesn't play well in their next game. Ball State is in that position. The Cardinals had their nine-game win streak snapped this past Saturday losing by 20 points to Buffalo at home. Buffalo exposed the Cardinals' inconsistent perimeter game and lack of size. Ohio can do the same. The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road contests after playing three or more home games in a row. Ball State isn't expected to have starting guard Jontrell Walker either. He was supsended indefinitely on Saturday after being charged with domestic battery.
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01-09-18 | Georgetown +7.5 v. St. John's | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I liked and respected Chris Mullin as a basketball player. But I don't think much of his coaching abilities. And I don't believe his St. John's team is good enough to be laying this many points to Georgetown. The Red Storm have yet to win a Big East game going 0-4. They are second-to-last in the conference in rebounding differential and have a weak perimeter defense. Georgetown averages nearly 81 points. St. John's averages 71.8 points, last in the conference. St. John's continues to be without injured Marcus LoVett and it has shown in bad home losses to DePaul and Providence. The Hoyas have covered all three of their lined road games this season. The line is high because the Hoyas are coming off a 90-66 home loss to Creighton. The good news, though, about that loss was that Georgetown's two best players, Jessie Govan and Markus Derrickson, played reduced mintues. Both should be fresh and fired-up for this matchup.
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01-08-18 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 214 | 96-109 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
The Bucks are averaging 117.2 points during their last four games, including putting up 122 points on these same Pacers this past Wednesday in a 122-101 victory. |
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01-07-18 | Hawks v. Lakers -3.5 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Luke Walton is feeling heat as the Lakers have lost nine in a row. Clearly, it's stop-the-pain mode in LA. Luckily, the Lakers have the perfect opponent to do just that as they host the Hawks. Atlanta is in total rebuild mode. The Hawks are at their worst on the road where their record is 3-17. The Hawks' last away victory occurred on Dec. 2 against the Nets. The Lakers are back to full strength with Lonzo Ball and Brook Lopez healthy. They hold a talent edge on the Hawks. Atlanta has one good player, Dennis Schroder, and he's in a shooting slump. Schroder is 12-for-31 in his last two games from the floor. He has shot much worse on the road this season at 41.2 percent from the field.
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01-07-18 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 149.5 | 73-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup and a slower pace from Maryland. The Hawkeyes are in stop-the-pain mode, while the Terrapins are coming off an embarrassing 30-point road loss to Michigan State.
Iowa can take advantage of Maryland's lack of ballhandling skills. The Terrapins are still adjusting to the loss of forward Justin Jackson, who was lost for the season with a shoulder injury. The teams have gone Under the total during four of their last five meetings. |
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01-06-18 | Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +19.5 | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Loyola-Marymount is better than perceived, but this handicap is based more on a fade of Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are down from past seasons and have padded their statistics on bad teams. |
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01-06-18 | Pelicans v. Wolves -125 | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
Minnesota is back from a bad East Coast trip that resulted in a 98-97 loss to the Nets on Wednesday and 91-84 defeat to the Celtics last night. Now the Timberwolves return home in stop-the-pain mode. They haven't lost three games in a row all season. Minnesota is 11-1 at Target Center this season and 20-6 versus Western Conference foes. The Timberwolves are 2-0 versus the Pelicans this season winning both times in New Orleans, 104-98, on Nov. 1 and 120-102 on Nov. 29. Karl-Anthony Towns helps off-set the inside dominance of DeMarcus Couins and Anthony Davis, while Jimmy Butler gives the Timberwolves the best non-big man on the floor. Butler is having another All-Star caliber season scoring 20 or more points in nine of his last 10 games. The Pelicans have played just one winning opponent during their past six games and that was Miami.
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01-06-18 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 218 | 98-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are well rested and should have lots of energy. The Timberwolves are not strong defensively inside so Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins should be able to score plenty. |
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01-06-18 | Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 145 | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Kent State isn't a very good shooting tean. That's reflected in the Golden Flashes going Under the total in 13 of their last 19 games. Central Michigan is a strong defensive club ranking 27th in the nation in fewest points allowed at 64.3 per game. A big reason why the Chippewas have a strong defensive club is because they play at a slow pace. So I don't see a fast tempo in this matchup, which makes the Under very attractive. |
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01-06-18 | VCU +3.5 v. La Salle | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The road team has covered six of the last seven in this series and I see that continuing here. VCU is coming off a tough overtime road loss to St. Joe's. The Rams had won four in a row prior to that. I don't think LaSalle is better than VCU. |
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01-05-18 | Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 206 | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The rankings show Memphis to be 29th in scoring. But the rankings don't reflect current form. The Grizzlies are much improved offensively. Sparked by a great season from Tyreke Evans, the Grizzlies are averaging 111.3 points in their last six games. Evans has scored at least 20 points in eight of the past 10 games. This is a rare nationally televised game for the Grizzlies so they should be motivated to put on a show. The Wizards are finally at full strength with John Wall and Otto Porter back to being 100 percent. They've helped Washington to win three in a row. The Wizards are averaging 118.7 points during their win streak. Going back to their last six games, the Wizards are averaging 116 points. This also marks Washington's lone road matchup during a nine-game span. The Wizards have surrendered an average of 116.6 points in their last three road contests.
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01-05-18 | Niagara +1.5 v. Siena | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Just think the wrong team opened as the favorite. Siena isn't very good. The Saints have a losing home mark while being outscored by six pointd per game at home. Going back to their last 16 home contests, the Saints have covered just five times. Niagara has a winning spread mark on the road. The Purple Eagles covered both of their games last season versus Siena. |
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01-05-18 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers +2.5 | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Wisconsin is way down from previous seasons. The Badgers also have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among the Badgers who won't be playing is starting guard Brevin Pritzl, who has a head injury. |
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01-04-18 | Thunder -120 v. Clippers | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
The Thunder have covered in four of their last five games against the Clippers, including beating them, 120-111, at home on Nov. 10. Oklahoma City has picked up its play winning 13 of 18 since December as Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are all better in sync with each other now. The Thunder played one of their best games in beating the Lakers, 133-96, last night at Staples Center. That's the venue for this matchup so no travel is involved for the Thunder. The Clippers are playing better, too, but have just met five straight sub .500 teams, including the 12-26 Grizzlies twice. This is a step up in class for the Clippers and they still have key injuries with Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari out and Austin Rivers questionable.
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01-04-18 | Cincinnati v. Temple UNDER 138 | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I really like Cincinnati's defense, which is the fourth-stingiest in the nation giving up 59.1 points per game. The Bearcats also rank sixth in defensive field goal percentage. Cincinnati has been a strong Under play when on the road. The Under has cashed a whopping 75 percent of the time during their last 64 away contests. Temple is respectable defensively, too, and catch the Bearcats down backup point guard Cane Broome, who was averaging nearly 10 points a game and three assists per game
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01-04-18 | Warriors -4 v. Rockets | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Until proven otherwise, I see the world champion Warriors as the best team in basketball. When the Warriors really want to win, they win. That should be the case here with the Warriors facing their strongest challenger in the Western Conference. I'd like the Rockets' chances far more if they had James Harden. But they don't. He's out with a hamstring injury. The Rockets didn't need him in burying the Magic, 116-98, at Orlando last night. I can't see the Rockets, though, hanging real close to the Warriors without Harden. Stephen Curry is back for the Warriors and he's hot making 24 of 36 shots from the field in two games since returning to the lineup after being out for 11 games. The Warriors also were in action last night, beating the Mavericks, 125-122. The Warriors have the shorter trip to Houston than the Rockets do coming from central Florida. Golden State also has the better bench. Until defeating the hapless Magic and Lakers, Houston had dropped five in a row. This will be just their second game of the season without Harden, who leads the NBA in scoring and is third in assists. Golden State has won its last eight road games and is 11-2 versus the Rockets during its past 13 regular-season meetings, including beating the Rockets six consecutive times at Toyota Center.
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01-03-18 | Rockets v. Magic UNDER 221 | Top | 116-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This will be the Rockets' first game this season without James Harden. There hasn't been a more devastating offensive player in the NBA than Harden, who is averaging a league-best 32.3 points and 9.1 assists. There will be an adjustment period for Houston as Harden probably is going to miss a couple of weeks after suffering a hamstring injury this past Sunday against the Lakers. Chris Paul and Clint Capela have returned from their injuries. But they've only been back for a short time so there's a get-in-sync factor that is even more pronounced now that Harden is sidelined. Orlando is a below average offensive team that was just held to 95 points by the Nets this past Monday. Brooklyn ranks 26th defensively. If you discount the 111 points the Magic put up on banged-up Miami, Orlando is averaging 96.6 points in its last six games.
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01-03-18 | East Carolina v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Yes, this is a low total. But it's not low enough given how bad these teams are offensively. East Carolina ranks 332nd in scoring averaging 65.6 points. South Florida is even worse averaging 63.8 points. What makes this worthy of an Under play is not just these team's lack of scoring, but tempo. Each team plays a slow-paced game and commits a lot of turnovers. Both are much stronger on defense than they are on offense. South Florida is even more defensive-minded at home where the Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times.
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01-02-18 | Nebraska +8.5 v. Northwestern | 70-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Northwestern isn't anything special neither talent-wise nor size-wise. The Wildcats also hold just a minimal home court advantage with their on-campus arena being renovated. This is forcing them to play their home games in Rosemont at the huge AllState Arena. |
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01-02-18 | Hawks v. Suns -125 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The Hawks have the worst record in the NBA and it's because they are 3-15 on the road. Atlanta is 1-10 in its last 11 away games with the lone victory during this time frame occurring versus the Nets. I don't think it's too much ask of the Suns to defeat the Hawks at home. The Suns have covered four of the last five at home against Atlanta and are playing well winning five of their last eight games.
The Suns are a much better team with Devin Booker back in the lineup. Booker is ninth in the league in scoring at 24.9 points per game. It's not just his scoring, but his play-making and ability to create space for his teammates that make him so valuable. It helps that TJ Warren and Marquese Criss also have been playing well for Phoenix and that Tyler Ulis has solidified the point guard spot. The Hawks have an outstanding point guard in Dennis Schroeder. But the Hawks have an unimpressive front line that Tyson Chandler and Greg Monroe can do well against. The Hawks carry a fatigue rating, too, playing for the third time in five days and fourth in seven days. |
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12-31-17 | Washington v. UCLA -9 | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Washington is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 Pac-12 games. But the Huskies caught the attention of UCLA with an 88-81 road win against USC this past Friday. That was the Huskies' first Pac-12 road victory in nearly two seasons. The Burins are 7-1 at home this season and have covered eight of the last 11 times versus the Huskies. Mike Hopkins has turned around the Huskies in his first season. But I don't see Washington being there yet for this huge early-season conference road matchup. The Bruins are averaging nearly 84 points a game with a balanced attack and a lot of height. It will be too much for Washington at this stage.
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12-31-17 | Hornets v. Clippers -2.5 | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
The Clippers are the superior team with Blake Griffin back and are home. LA is on a 9-1-1 against the spread run. |
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12-31-17 | Utah v. Oregon State +1 | 66-64 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Oregon State is extremely tough at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have covered in their last four meetings against Utah. They are 11-2 against the Utes in their last 13 home games versus them. The Utes are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. I don't see Utah pulling off back-to-back road wins in Oregon after it snapped Oregon's 25-game home win streak with a 66-56 win against the Ducks two days ago. Oregon State is 8-1 at home this season. The Beavers have won their last six at Gill Coliseum with the average victory margin being 11.8 points.
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12-31-17 | Texas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 136.5 | 53-48 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Texas State has gone Under in eight of its last 11 games. It's not a fluke. Only nine teams take more time per possession to shoot than Texas State. The Bobcats rank 27th defensively holding foes to 63.5 points. So that's a powerful Under combination. Coastal Carolina plays at a deliberate pace, too. The teams met twice last season and the total went Under both times by a combined 50 points. |
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12-30-17 | Cavs -3.5 v. Jazz | 101-104 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are in stop-the-pain mode off consecutive road losses to the Warriors and then Kings. Cleveland last played on Wednesday and won't play again until Tuesday so this spots sets up well for the Cavaliers. The Jazz have no defensive stoppers to face LeBron James. Utah remains without Rudy Gobbert, their top inside scoring threat and one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. Utah has lost three in a row, losing by an average of 21 points a game during this span. The Jazz aren't close to being in the Cavaliers' class without Gobert.
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12-30-17 | Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 146.5 | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Maybe because Vanderbilt went into Christmas break hot averaging 86.5 points in its last two games. But this total is too high given the quality of Florida's defense and recent history between these two teams. The average combined total during the past three meetings in regulation is 131.3 points.The Gators should be extremely motivated to stop the Commodores, too, in a triple revenge spot. Despite their recent hot shooting, Vanderbilt ranks 312th in shooting percentage at 41.1. The Under has cashed in 15 of Vanderbilt's last 18 road games. Florida has gone Under in its last five games. Neither team has played in more than a week so their shooting figures to be rusty, also. |
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12-29-17 | Hornets v. Warriors -11 | 111-100 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
The Warriors can name their score here. The question is can they name it by a wide enough margin to cover this double-digit spread? I believe they can. They certainly did when the two teams met on Dec. 6 in Charlotte. The Warriors rolled past the Hornets, 101-87. Golden State achieved that win minus Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Curry won't be back for this game. But Green is healthy and Golden State is home this time. The Warriors are 9-1 in the 10 games Curry has missed. They've held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 100 points. The Hornets are a below average defensive club that may not even be good enough to sneak into the Eastern Conference playoffs. They have lost 13 of their last 17 games. Golden State leads the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. Since losing to the Warriors, the Hornets have faced three other strong teams - Boston, Toronto and Houston. Charlotte dropped all three of those games by double-digits with the average loss being 13.6 points. Charlotte has been terrible on the road going 2-12 SU, 3-8-3 ATS. The Warriors host Memphis on Saturday, but after that game won't play again until Wednesday. So they should be playing hard.
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12-29-17 | Utah v. Oregon -10 | 66-56 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Utah isn't ready for Oregon. The 10-3 Ducks are holding foes to less than 39 percent shooting from the field while averaging 85.3 points per game. Utah can't match that. Utah has failed to step up against elite type foes losing to UNLV by 27 points, to Butler by 12 and to BYU by 12. The Ducks have defeated the Utes during the past nine meetings, including sweeping them last season.
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12-29-17 | Rockets v. Wizards UNDER 220.5 | 103-121 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm not anticipating Chris Paul to play, but if he does I still like this game to go Under. Paul would be rusty having missed the last three games. He likely wouldn't play big minutes either. The spot sets up for a hard-nose, defensive battle with both teams coming off losses. The Rockets blew a huge lead in losing 99-98 at Boston last night. Houston's four best players all logged more than 38 minutes in that game. The Under has cashed six of the last seven times the Rockets have played without rest. No Paul obviously would be good for the Under, too. Houston has another key injury. Center Clint Capela is out. He leads the NBA in field goal percentage. The Rockets lack an inside game minus Capela. I see reduced minutes for James Harden, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza tonight with newly-signed veteran swingman Gerald Green picking up more minutes. Green made his Rockets debut last night going scoreless in 11 minutes. He's a big offensive downgrade from any of those four players. The Wizards still are mad from an embarrassing 113-99 road loss to the Hawks two nights ago. The Wizards weren't happy with their defense nor their lack of ball movement. I see the Wizards tightening their defense while also taking their time on offense to get the best shot rather than play up-tempo. The Under has cashed 13 of the last 17 times the Wizards have played on one day's rest. Washington is an underrated defensive club at home. The Wizards have yielded just 97.3 points per game during their last six games at Verizon Center.
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12-28-17 | San Francisco v. San Diego UNDER 131 | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I always think defense when San Diego is involved. The Toreros are No. 1 in 3-point defense, rank 12th in fewest points allowed per game and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. San Francisco is improved defensively allowing 66.3 points a game and rank in the top 65 in defensive efficiency. Neither offense is very good. The intensity should be up as this is a West Coast Conference matchup. The Under has won in 12 of San Francisco's last 16 WCC games. The Under has cashed in 11 of San Diego's past 13 conference games. So I see this total as opening too high. The Under should be good all the way to 125.
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12-28-17 | Wolves v. Bucks OVER 212.5 | 96-102 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm going to roll with the tide and play this matchup to go Over. The Bucks have been a monster Over team going 14-2-1 above the number in their last 17 games. Milwaukee has reached triple digits in each of its last 16 games and is averaging 110.4 points during its last nine games. That shouldn't change here as the Bucks are off an embarrassing 115-106 home loss to the Bulls two nights ago and catch the Timberwolves in action for the third time in four days and second in two nights having nipped the Nuggets, 128-125 in overtime, last night. The Timberwolves rank last in the league in defensive field goal percentage. The Bucks have the perimeter shooters to take full advantage. Minnesota is averaging 113.5 points in its last seven games. The Timberwolves have gone Over in seven of their past eight games, including the last five. Jimmy Butler has been on fire and Karl-Anthony Towns could dominate against a weak rebounding Bucks front line. The Timberwolves may not have starting point guard Jeff Teague. But Tyus Jones is one of the more underrated backup point guards in the league. He's better than an 83 percent foul shooter and is second on the Timberwolves in 3-point shooting percentage.
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12-28-17 | Louisiana Tech +9 v. Western Kentucky | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
This is the Conference USA opener for both teams - and it's too many points for Western Kentucky to be laying. |
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12-27-17 | Knicks +1.5 v. Bulls | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
I understand the Bulls are far removed from the 3-20 team that opened the season. I also understand the Knicks are not a good road team, just 2-10. Still, I'm not buying the Bulls opening a favorite in this matchup. The Bulls carry a high fatigue rating. This marks their fifth game in eight days and second in two nights following a highly satisfying road victory against the Bucks last night. Chicago has lost five of six times this season when playing without rest, losing by an average of nearly 13 points per game. The Knicks play five of their next six games on the road, including facing the Spurs in San Antonio on Thursday. New York is coming off a Christmas Day home loss to the 76ers and will be placing a lot of emphasis on winning this game, while Chicago is fat and happy. This also is a big revenge spot for the Knicks. They lost 104-102 to the Bulls at United Center on Dec. 9. The Bulls were blistering hot in that game making 51.2 percent of their shots from the floor. Chicago also went to the free throw line 23 times to just nine times for the Knicks.
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12-27-17 | Celtics -115 v. Hornets | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
The Celtics are the much better team and have a huge coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Hornets interim coach Stephen Silas. Charlotte is 4-8 in its last 12 games. The Hornets really miss big man Cody Zeller, who is out following knee surgery. Charlotte is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight home contests. The Celtics are coming off a home loss to the Wizards on Christmas Day and host the Rockets Thursday. So they are in real danger of being saddled with a three-game losing streak if they lose this matchup. Boston has dominated this series under Stevens winning nine of the past 10 times, including the last five.
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12-26-17 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 212 | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
The Bulls are playing far better on offense with the emergence of Kris Dunn at point guard. They have scored at least 103 points in eight of their last nine games. If you discount their last game, a 92-point road performance against the No. 2 defensive ranked Celtics, the Bulls have averaged 114 points in their last four games. The Bucks have reached triple digits in their last 15 games. They are averaging 111 points per game in their last eight games. The Over is 13-2-1 in Milwaukee's last 16 games. The teams just met 11 days ago at Bradley Center and there were 224 points scored in Chicago's 115-109 upset win.
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12-26-17 | Pacers v. Pistons -120 | Top | 83-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The Pistons have defeated the Pacers two of three times this season with the latest coming 11 days ago at Indiana, 104-98. A key to the Pistons beating the Pacers is they can control blossoming star Victor Oladipo, who is shooting just 35.5 percent from the field versus Detroit this season. Even though Avery Bradley remains out, the Pistons have other defensive-minded players such as Reggie Bullock and Anthony Tolliver. Both teams have been playing well, but Indiana has met inferior competition in three of its last four games drawing the Hawks and Nets twice. The Pistons enjoy playing in their new home, Little Caesars Arena. It's not too much to ask of them to beat the Pacers at home. |
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12-25-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 206.5 | 111-103 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Peace on earth, goodwill to men. Those sentiments don't hold when the Wizards and Celtics get together. This is their first matchup since their contentious Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series that went seven games. There's going to be a lot of intensity in this game. It's a day game, too. These are helpful factors to the Under. It's also a huge Under factor, too, that both teams are strong defensively. Boston ranks second in the NBA in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. Part of this is the Celtics' ranking in the bottom-five in tempo. The Celtics aren't going to get in a track meet against John Wall. Washington has scored fewer than 101 points in five of its last seven games. It's easy to think of Wall and his excellent backcourt mate, Bradley Beal, when talking about the Wizards. But Washington is better defensively than perceived. The Wizards rank No. 1 in 3-point defensive percentage and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. During their last seven games, the Wizards have ranked in the top-five in defensvie efficiency. The Under has been a sneaky good play in Wizards games covering 73 percent of the time during their past 26 games.
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12-23-17 | Mavs -125 v. Hawks | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
The Hawks have been playing terrible defense yielding triple-digits in 14 of their last 15 games. Atlanta also isn't a good home team going 4-11 this season at Philips Arena and holding a losing ATS home mark. Dallas has picked up its game going 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games. The Hawks are one of the three worst teams in the NBA. Their lack of talent is even more exposed when playing Western Conference foes where they are 2-7 ATS. This is a tough spot, too, for Atlanta following a tough 120-117 road loss to Oklahoma City Friday night. The Hawks gave a great effort in that game. It's an added plus for the Mavericks if the Hawks are going to missing point guard Dennis Schroder for a second straight game. Dallas is in revenge mode, too, for a 117-111 home loss suffered to the Hawks back on Oct. 18 when it wasn't playing as well. |
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12-22-17 | Texas State -2.5 v. Rice | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
I conceed Rice has played the more difficult schedule of the two teams. But power rating-wise, Texas State is the better team. Statistics bear this out. The Bobcats give up 12 fewer points per game than Rice and score four more points per contest. Rice is looking forward to Christmas break. The Owls are 1-5 in their last six games. Rice has a losing record at home, too. The Owls' lone home victories were against non-board teams St. Edward's and St. Thomas. Texas State and Rice have one common opponent - Texas Rio Grande Valley. Texas State rolled past the Vaqueros, 75-58, while Rice lost to them, 69-67.
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12-22-17 | Knicks v. Pistons -6 | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
The Knicks are in a major letdown spot after upsetting the Celtics, 102-93, at home last night. Now the Knicks hit the road where they have been terrible. New York is 2-9 this season away from Madison Square Garden, 3-8 ATS. Kristaps Porzingis is far and away New York's best player. But he hasn't been 100 percent due to a knee injury. The Pistons are in bounce-back mode after a bad 110-93 road loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Detroit had won three in a row prior to that. The Pistons are tough in their new Little Caesar Arena going 9-5 there with a winning point spread mark.
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12-21-17 | Cal-Irvine v. Idaho UNDER 136.5 | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
Cal Irvine is coming off a bad loss to Montana. But the game before that the Anteaters held St. Mary's to seven points under its scoring average and 41.1 percent shooting from the floor. The Gaels have the 16th-highest field goal percentage in the nation at 50.9. Point being Irvine can play defense. So can Idaho, which ranks 28th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive field goal percentage. Both team's defenses far outshine their offenses. The Under is 18-7-1 in Idaho's last 26 non-league games. Yes, the total is low. But it's not low enough.
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12-21-17 | Bulls +11 v. Cavs | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Maybe the Cavaliers cover a rare home game and beat the spread when laying double-digits for the first time this season. But I have to take the Bulls believing this isn't going to happen. Sparked by the return of Nikola Mirotic and the emergence of Kris Dunn as a legitmate NBA point guard, the Bulls have put their rebuild plans on hold winning and covering seven in a row. Chicago should be motivated to test itself going against LeBron James and Cleveland in a double-revenge spot. The Bulls were playing much worse when they lost to the Cavaliers, 119-112, in the third game of the season during their last visit to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 13-4 at home, but a mind-boggling 2-15 ATS. They are 0-11 ATS when laying double-digits. Only four times in their 32 games this season have the Cavaliers won by 12 or more points. Cleveland has a monster look-ahead game, too, as following this matchup the Cavaliers take off for the West Coast. The marquee matchup of the season goes Sunday with the Cavaliers meeting the Warriors. The Bulls did play last night. But no Chicago starter even reached the 29-minute mark in the Bulls' 112-94 home win against Orlando. |
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12-20-17 | Magic +5 v. Bulls | 94-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
It's easy to do a double-take when looking at this spread. But it's legitimate. Chicago has won six in a row. The Bulls actually are in position to overlook the Magic with upcoming marquee road matchups against the Cavaliers, Celtics and Bucks. Orlando looks at Chicago and sees how its season can turn around, too. The Magic have lost five in a row, but are getting healthier. They have forward Jonathan Isaac, one of their best defensive players, back and could get back leading scorer Evan Fournier. He's questionable along with Arron Affalo. Mario Hezonija stepped up in their absence erupting for 28 points in a 114-110 road loss to the Pistons - a team better than the Bulls - this past Sunday. The Magic have been idle since losing to the Pistons. Orlando has revenge motivation for 105-83 home loss suffered to the Bulls last month when down its two top point guards. Both are back for Orlando. Orlando has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Chicago. |
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12-20-17 | Kings v. Nets -5 | 104-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
When is it ever good to lay a mid-size number with the Nets? Now. The spot, situation and history set up a Brooklyn play. The Kings stunned the 76ers last night rallying from 16 points down to win, 101-95, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs. Now the Kings have to turn around to play the win-starved Nets at the conclusion of their four-game, seven day road trip. Bad timing for them. Sacramento could be short-handed, too, in the backcourt. George Hill missed last night's game due to illness and good-looking rookie De'Aaron Fox reinjured his thigh against the 76ers. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode with a three-game losing streak. Before then, they had won five of eight. Brooklyn has a winning spread mark when favored. The Nets also are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Western Conference foes. Sacramento happens to be 4-10-2 ATS versus Eastern Conference opponents even with that victory against the 76ers, who were minus Joel Embiid. The Kings are 5-13 on the road this season and had lost seven straight road games to the Nets before winning last season. Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Sacramento.
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12-20-17 | North Texas v. Georgetown -9.5 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
I see this as a bounce back spot for Georgetown and a letdown spot for North Texas. The Hoyas suffered their first loss in nine games when they lost to Syracuse in overtime this past Saturday. There's no shame in losing to the Orangemen. But there would be shame in losing at home to North Texas. Patrick Ewing should have Georgetown on alert for this foe. North Texas is off an 86-83 victory against San Diego this past Saturday winning as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs. The Mean Green had lost seven straight true road games in a row, including going 0-4 this season, before springing the upset. Among the Mean Green's road defeats this season is a 14-point loss to Nebraska.
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12-19-17 | Dayton v. St. Mary's -10.5 | 54-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
St. Mary's ranks third in the NCAA in adjusted offensive efficiency, has the second lowest turnover rate in the country and ranks 16th in the nation in shooting percentage. The Gaels also are ranked 12th in free throw percentage and 34th in 3-point percentage. Jock Landale is one of the best players in the country averaging 21.6 points a game and 9.5 rebounds. So the Gaels definitely have the offense to cover this spread. This matchup sets up well for the Gaels to do just that. Dayton is playing just its second true road game. The Flyers last were on the road 16 days ago. The Flyers have a lot of inexperience. They are struggling to find their identity under first-year coach Anthony Grant. The Flyers don't have much height either. They are going to have problems dealing with the 6-foot-10 Landale. The Flyers managed to hold off Georgia State, 88-83, in overtime during their last game as a six-point home favorite on Saturday. But they have not won back-to-back games all season. |
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12-19-17 | Cavs v. Bucks OVER 215 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
LeBron James is having an MVP-type season and Cleveland has reached triple digits in 24 straight games. The Bucks are an average defensive team and rank last in 3-point defense. Milwaukee has reached triple-digits in its last 12 games. The Bucks have scored 108 or more points during each of their last five games. The Over is 10-1-1 in the Bucks' last 12 games. The teams have met twice this season. Both games went Over the total. That's in keeping with the trend in this series, which has seen the Over cover 22 of the last 29 times. Note the short spread, too, in this game. So there's an increased chance of overtime potentially occurring.
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12-18-17 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 216 | Top | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
The Rockets have the top offense in the NBA right now. Chris Paul has made James Harden even more dangerous if that's possible. Harden is leading the NBA in scoring at 31.5 points a game. The Rockets have scored at least 115 points in nine of their last 11 games. The Jazz are far more vulnerable on defense without Rudy Gobert, their star center and rim protector. The Jazz have become more up-tempo and offensive-minded minus Gobert. They have scored triple digits in each of their last five games and 11 of their last 12 games. Derrick Favors, the Jazz's second-best big man, is out, too. So there should be a lot of small ball in this matchup.
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12-18-17 | Charlotte +3 v. East Carolina | 69-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Charlotte is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. The 49ers will be well rested having been idle a week. The team should play hard here for interim coach Houston Fancher following Mark Price getting fired. That was a shock. But it should shake Charlotte up. Charlotte holds a backcourt edge. East Carolina is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country. Charlotte has underachieved. The 49ers are better than they showed. So the 49ers needed to be shook up.
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12-17-17 | San Francisco +7.5 v. Stanford | 59-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Stanford hasn't been very good this season. The Cardinal are a below .500 team and own few quality victories. San Francisco won't lack motivation against their nearby Pac-12 rival. This is just a short 35-mile road trip for the Dons. San Francisco is on a 3-game win streak, including beating UC Davis by 13 points in their last game. The Dons won 20 games last season. They are more worthy of than this big line shows.
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12-16-17 | North Texas v. San Diego UNDER 135.5 | 86-83 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
It's rarely wrong to look Under with San Diego. The Toreros have gone Under in 17 of their last 21 games. San Diego has this below the total mark because of its outstanding defense. It's a primary reason why the Toreros are off to their best start since joining Division I 38 years ago. San Diego is holding foes to 59.6 points a game. Only six teams in the country allow fewer points per game. The Toreros also rank third in the nation in 3-point defense and seventh in defensive field goal percentage. The oddsmaker knows all of this of course. So the key to making this Under work is pace. Neither team plays up-tempo. North Texas averages 77.7 points, but the Mean Green are double-digit 'dogs. I see the Toreros controlling pace while playing with a lead. |
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12-16-17 | UNLV -7 v. Pacific | 81-76 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacific is improved, but the Tigers are far from being in UNLV's class. The Rebels are too athletic and have too much scoring for Pacific to handle. UNLV is averaging 91.5 points a game, fifth-best in the country, and rank No. 3 in rebounding. Pacific is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games.
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12-16-17 | UNLV v. Pacific OVER 157 | 81-76 | Push | 0 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
UNLV averages 91.5 points per game. Only four teams average more per game. The Rebels have gone Over the total in all but one of their 10 lined games this season. So I'm going to ride with that. Pacific is playing fast under Damon Stoudamire. The Tigers have gone Over in seven of their 10 lined contests. I see both teams running and pushing tempo.
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12-16-17 | CS-Fullerton +7.5 v. California | 89-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
California is 4-6 under first-year coach Wyking Jones, but off an improbable 63-62 win against San Diego State. The Golden Bears were 16-point road 'dogs in that game. Cal still could be celebrating that win. If that's the case, the Bears will be in serious trouble because Fullerton is an underrated foe. The Titans have won five in a row. They've defeated Harvard and Portland and have been at their point spread best versus sub .500 foes covering eight of the last nine times against them. Upsetting San Diego State aside, the Golden Bears just aren't that good. Among their losses are games to Chaminade and Central Arkansas.
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12-15-17 | Nets +11 v. Raptors | Top | 87-120 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Nets are a scrappy bunch and very underrated by the oddsmaker. Brooklyn has greatly improved its defense to the point where until last night, the Nets ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency during their past seven games. Brooklyn couldn't hit its 3-pointers and lost, 111-104, at home to the Knicks Thursday night. The Nets were short favorites in that game. They are much better in an underdog role where they have covered nine of the last 10 times. Despite that defeat, the Nets still have a winning record in their last nine games. The Nets found, if not a star, a very reliable player in that loss to the Knicks. Point guard Spencer Dinwiddie put up a career-best 26 points to go with seven rebounds and seven assists. He is averaging 15.4 points per game since replacing injured D'Angelo Russell. This isn't a good spot for Toronto. The Raptors just concluded a four-game, six-day road trip on Wednesday night beating the Suns, 115-109. The Raptors are 2-4 ATS in their last six games and are in a flat spot playing in their first home game in 10 days.
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12-15-17 | Blazers v. Magic UNDER 210 | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Portland is a top-six defensive team while the Magic's scoring is greatly reduced with their two leading scorers still out of action as both Evan Fouriner and Aaron Gordon are sidelined by injuries. The Magic haven't broken 95 points in three of their last five games. Portland is a huge Under team. The under is 14-4-1 in its last 19 games.
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12-14-17 | Knicks v. Nets -120 | 111-104 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
The Nets don't get the media attention the Knicks do. They don't have any stars either. But Brooklyn has been playing good ball winning five of its eight games. The Nets have improved their defense by 10 points per game during this span holding opponents to 100.9 points in their last eight games. Brooklyn is a respectable 5-6 at home, covering seven of its last 11 games at Barclays Center. The Nets have defeated the Thunder and Wizards during two of their past three home contests. The Knicks have an NBA-low one road victory in nine away matchups. They are 2-7 ATS away from Madison Square Garden. The Nets take this rivalry more serious than the Knicks and also have revenge motivation for a 107-86 road loss on Oct. 27. There should be a buzz to this game, too, for the Nets as Jahlil Okafor should be making his Brooklyn debut.
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12-14-17 | Pistons -4 v. Hawks | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
The Pistons are in circle-the-wagons mode and can take their frustrations out of the hapless Hawks. Atlanta is one of the four-worst teams in the NBA at 6-21, including 3-9 at home. Detroit should exploit the Hawks' weak defense that ranks 26th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage. Opponents have hit 50 percent of their field goals during the past five games against the Hawks. Atlanta is giving up an average of 113 points per game during this span.
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