11-22-16 |
Thunder -140 v. Lakers |
Top |
109-111 |
Loss |
-140 |
12 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Lakers are improved. But they still are a lottery team several tiers below Oklahoma City. LA doesn't match up well to Oklahoma City either. The Lakers' biggest weaknesses are rim protection, rebounding and protecting the ball. The Thunder can exploit these weaknesses ranking third in rebounding with a tough inside presence and Russell Westbrook, who could be the best player in the NBA right now. He's averaging 33 points, 11.2 rebounds and 12.2 assists during his last five games. Those are Oscar Robertson numbers. Oklahoma City has dominated this series winning the past nine times. The Thunder are in a foul frame of mind, too, coming off a 115-111 home overtime loss to the Pacers two days ago. Westbrook didn't shoot well in that game and will be highly motivated here in his former stomping ground having starred at UCLA. The Lakers rank among the bottom four in defense and were last in defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers also might be without point guard D'Angelo Russell, who missed Monday's practice with a sore knee.
|
11-21-16 |
Raptors +9 v. Clippers |
Top |
115-123 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
It's a mistake for any team to lay this many points to Toronto. The Raptors did play last night losing in controversial fashion to the Kings in Sacramento. They are in a bitter mood following that loss when the referees waved off a game-tying shot by Terrence Ross at the buzzer. This is just a short trip from Sacramento to LA for the Raptors. Toronto is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing without rest. The Raptors swept the Clippers last season and have covered the past four times in the series. Before losing to the Kings, the Raptors had posted road victories against the Thunder and Hornets. They then beat the Knicks at home followed by a four-point road loss to the Cavaliers then a six-point loss to the Warriors and a road win against the improved Nuggets. The Clippers aren't better than the Cavaliers or Warriors yet they are laying more points to the Raptors than those teams did. The Clippers carry their own high fatigue rating, too, as this marks their seventh game in 11 days and third in four days. Following this matchup, the Clippers take off an 11-game road trip so their focus could be off. The Clippers have star power, but so do the Raptors. Their stars - DeMar Rozan, Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas - just don't draw the publicity that the Clippers' stars do because they aren't in a major U.S. media market.
|
11-19-16 |
CS-Fullerton v. UNLV -7.5 |
|
68-77 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Rebels don't lack for talent and should play more relaxed after getting their first victory for new coach Marvin Menzies this past Wednesday. Fullerton has an excellent scorer in Tre Coggins, but the Titans are a very bad defensive team. They've given up triple digits in each of their last two games. The Titans are on the road and not in UNLV's class. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven non-conference games.
|
11-19-16 |
Celtics v. Pistons OVER 199 |
|
94-92 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
Both teams are off bad offensive performances last night. Now, playing in the second of back-to-back games, there is a fatigue factor. I see that coming on defense with each team working hard to get their offense back in gear. Boston has scored just 88 and 90 points during its past two games, both at home. Prior to that, the Celtics had scored at least 104 points in seven of their last eight games. They expect to be without Al Horford and Marcus Smart. That hurts them more defensively than offensively especially minus Smart. Avery Bradley is having a breakthrough season. He and Isaiah Thomas give Boston a strong scoring backcourt.
The Pistons have scored 102 or more points in all but one of their five home games. The over has cashed 12 of the last 16 times the Pistons have played without rest.
|
11-18-16 |
Blazers -110 v. Pelicans |
|
101-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
Not only is Portland a better team than the Pelicans, who are tied for the worst record in the NBA, but there's a chance New Orleans could be minus Anthony Davis again. Davis sat out New Orleans' last game this past Wednesday with a quad injury. Jrue Holiday does return for Pelicans. This will be his season debut, but he figures to be rusty. The Trail Blazers hold a huge backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The Trail Blazers' front line lacks star power, but there's depth and cohesion. Portland has beaten New Orleans in eight of the past 10 meetings. The Trail Blazers should be motivated after getting blown out by the Rockets to start their five-game road trip. The Trail Blazers own road victories against the Nuggets, Mavericks and Grizzlies - all better teams than the Pelicans.
|
11-18-16 |
Pistons v. Cavs -8.5 |
|
81-104 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
Early betting activity has driven this number down. The Cavaliers are 6-1 at home but are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games at Quicken Loans Arena. I don't see the Cavaliers being overpriced here, though. The Cavaliers should be properly motivated and their superstars should log major minutes. LeBron James sat out Cleveland's last game. That was two nights ago when the Pacers upset the Cavaliers, 103-93, in Indiana. The Cavaliers don't play again until Wednesday following this game. Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games going back to last season. The Pistons are your classic good home team/bad road club. Detroit is giving up an average of 20 more points per game on the road while shooting 11 percent worst from the floor away from The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons have been on the road now in six of their last seven games. The Pistons last played on Wednesday losing to the Knicks, 105-102, at Madison Square Garden. The Pistons couldn't defend Kristaps Porzingis in that loss and also were outrebounded, 52-40. Andre Drummond returned for that game from an ankle injury. You have to wonder if he's 100 percent, though. The Pistons remain without their leading scorer and top point guard, Reggie Jackson.
|
11-17-16 |
Connecticut -7 v. Loyola Marymount |
Top |
65-62 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 12 m |
Show
|
Could Connecticut actually open the season 0-3? Nope. I see a focused Huskies squad shooting much better and having no problem with Loyola Marymount, an average at best team from the West Coast Conference.
The Huskies were rated 16th in the nation entering the season, but are 0-2 for the first time since 1968 with embarrassing home losses to Wagner and Northeastern this past Monday. Obviously the Huskies have under performed. Taking to the road could be good for the Huskies in this instance. Certainly a strong, motivated effort should be forthcoming here. That should be enough as there is quite a talent gap. "I'm very positive we can get out of this," Connecticut coach Kevin Ollie was quoted as saying. "I didn't want to be in this position, but I've been here before. I believe in myself, and I believe in this team." Mike Dunlap is in his third season as head man at Loyola Marymount. The Lions went 8-23 in his first season and 14-17 last year. They should be better this season, but certainly not in Connecticut's class. The Lions are 1-1 this season with a win against Wagner and a loss to Nevada-Reno. Connecticut should have its share of fans at the game. Ollie is from the Los Angeles area and the Lions are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 home games.
|
11-17-16 |
Knicks v. Wizards -145 |
|
112-119 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
When comparing results from last night it looks bad: The Knicks beat the Pistons, 105-102, at home while the Wizards fell on the road to the lowly 76ers, 109-102. But those results factor into backing the Wizards today. Washington is winless on the road. The Wizards are 2-3 at home with victories against the Hawks and Celtics. Their home defeats have come to the Raptors, Rockets and Cavaliers. This is their easiest home opponent of the season so far. The Knicks are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road. Their last two games were double-digit losses to the Celtics and Raptors. Prior to playing last night, the Wizards had been idle for three straight days. They should be less rusty for this matchup not to mention highly motivated after just losing to the worst team in the Eastern Conference if not the entire NBA. The Knicks are playing for the third time in four days. They also are the traveling team. Their fatigue rating is higher than the Wizards. John Wall is going to play in consecutive games for the first time this season. He saw action for less than 24 minutes last night. There's a chance the Wizards get back their excellent shooting guard, Bradley Beal. That would be an added bonus, but I like the Wizards to win here even if Beal misses a fourth straight game. Note, too, the Wizards are 6-1 versus the Knicks in the past seven meetings.
|
11-16-16 |
San Francisco v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 143 |
Top |
75-63 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 60 m |
Show
|
There were 129 combined points when the teams met last November with Santa Barbara winning as a slight road 'dog. Look for a similar low-scoring game this time around. The Gauchos struggled to score from the perimeter against Nebraska-Omaha at home in their opener missing 18 of 23 shots from 3-point range in a 74-60 loss. The Gauchos lost their top scorer from a year ago, two-time All-Big West Conference selection Michael Bryson. Tempo is important when playing under. Don't expect a fast-paced game here. San Francisco's new coach is Kyle Smith, who takes over a new roster with a new coaching staff. Smith came from Columbia in the Ivy League so he's used to and favors a methodical, half-court style.
|
11-16-16 |
Warriors -5.5 v. Raptors |
Top |
127-121 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Warriors have won four in a row against the Raptors and the spot is ripe for them to continue that winning streak. After a slow start and transition period to newcomer superstar Kevin Durant, the Warriors have picked up the pace. They have won four consecutive games averaging 122.5 points during this span. Golden State is well rested and prepared. The Warriors last played Sunday at home and have been in Canada awaiting the Raptors. Toronto had to fly in from Cleveland in the wee hours of the morning following a tough 121-117 physically draining loss to the Cavaliers last night. Only two teams play at a faster pace than Golden State. The Warriors are hot and certainly have the scorers to take advantage of a tired Raptors squad.
|
11-16-16 |
Pistons v. Knicks -118 |
|
102-105 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
The Pistons are unbeaten at home. However, they have been far less impressive on the road. Detroit is 1-5 away from The Palace at Auburn Hills. They have lost to the Nets and Suns and have lost by double-digits to the Raptors, Clippers and Spurs. The Knicks fall somewhere in the middle of those teams. The home club has won each of the last four meetings in the series. Detroit traditionally flounders at Madison Square Garden failing to cover in 20 of its last 26 road games versus the Knicks. The Knicks returned home two days ago following a pair of road losses and got back on track by beating Dallas, 93-77. The key for the Knicks was coach Jeff Hornacek's decision to go small. The Knicks have the versatility to do that. Andre Drummond is the best rebounder in basketball and the Pistons' top player. He didn't play in Detroit's last game due to an ankle injury. He's a game-time decision here. If he plays, though, he's not likely to be 100 percent.
|
11-15-16 |
Nets +6.5 v. Lakers |
|
118-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Nets have proven feisty this season usually providing a strong effort. They should be motivated here after getting blown out last night by the Clippers. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS following a loss. The Nets did hold out Brook Lopez, their best player, against the Clippers and didn't have any player log more than 29 minutes. The Lakers aren't as bad as they've been the past couple of years, but they remain inexperienced, don't play good defense and are prone to mistakes. They are at the same lottery level the Nets are. The Lakers have failed to cover six of the last eight times they've been chalk.
|
11-15-16 |
CS Bakersfield +17.5 v. Arizona |
Top |
66-78 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
Cal State Bakersfield is underrated and getting too many points just based on playing a Pac-12 opponent. The Roadrunners are a tough, physical defensive team. They won the WAC Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament last year giving Oklahoma problems in the first round. Bakersfield catches Arizona a bit fat and happy after the Wildcats knocked off then ninth-ranked Michigan State, 65-63, in Hawaii on a layup with 1.3 seconds left to open its season. The Wildcats didn't have Allonzo Trier, their top scorer from a year ago, in that game and he's not expected to play in this matchup. The Roadrunners have covered 14 of their last 16 games, including their past seven road games.
|
11-15-16 |
Dayton +1 v. Alabama |
|
77-72 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
Dayton is the better team and the Flyers proved it last year burying Alabama, 80-48, early in the season. Not enough has changed to make me think Dayton isn't the superior team again. The Flyers have all but one starter back and excellent depth with a 10-man rotation. They looked good in beating Austin Peay, 96-68, in their opener. Alabama didn't even make the NCAA Tournament last season. The Tide finished just three games above .500 and was knocked out in the first round of the NIT. Avery Johnson is a nice guy, but his coaching has never impressed me. The early start time should hold down attendance, too, cutting into the Tide's home-court edge.
|
11-14-16 |
Louisiana-Monroe +18 v. Texas |
|
59-80 |
Loss |
-106 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
Texas is very young with seven underclassmen in the rotation. The Longhorns were less than impressive in their opener beating Incarnate World, 78-73, this past Friday at home. Texas is 5-12 ATS during its last 17 lined non-conference matchups. Louisiana-Monroe opened with a 96-63 victory against Centenary. This is a huge step-up game for the Warhawks, but they have talent with junior college transfer Jordon Harris, Travis Munnings and Nick Coppola, a preseason third-team All-Sun Belt Conference selection.
|
11-13-16 |
CS-Northridge v. UCLA OVER 170 |
|
87-102 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
Cal-State Northridge's offensive was impressive during exhibition play. The Matadors have a pair of excellent scoring guards. UCLA opened with a 119-80 victory against Pacific. The Bruins are going to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. They have a strong freshman class topped by Lonzo Ball. The oddsmaker has set this total too low.
|
11-12-16 |
Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
105-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
Boston's defense has been dreadful. Brad Stevens realizes that. So he's made adjustments. Rookie Jaylen Brown goes back to the bench. Into the starting line-up goes Kelly Olynik and Marcus Smart, two defensive-minded players. They're joined by Avery Bradley, one of the best defensive guards. A Smart/Bradley backcourt is one of the better defensive tandems in the league. The Pacers are going through a transition period under new coach Nate McMillan. The Pacers are running more, but carry a high fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. The Pacers' last two games - both against the lowly 76ers - went into overtime. The Pacers could manage only 105 points against the 76ers last night despite playing overtime. Philadelphia ranks third-from-the-bottom in defensive shooting percentage.
|
11-12-16 |
Toledo v. St. Joe's UNDER 153 |
Top |
76-77 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 23 m |
Show
|
Saint Joseph's lost 64 percent of its scoring from a year ago, including superstar DeAndre Bembry. Neither team played a fast tempo last season and that's likely to hold true especially for Saint Joseph, which also lost Aaron Brown and Isaiah Miles. Toledo lost its point guard from last season and will be working on finding its proper rotation. Toledo's big men aren't polished products yet. Saint Joseph's is a below average 3-point shooting team, but ranked 25th last season in 3-point defense.
|
11-11-16 |
Jazz v. Magic UNDER 192.5 |
|
87-74 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
Utah gives up the second-fewest points per game in the NBA. Orlando is last in scoring. The Magic just surrendered a season-high 123 points at home two nights ago in an embarrassing 16-point loss to Minnesota. Orlando coach Frank Vogel is a half-court, defensive-minded coach. Obviously he was not pleased with that outcome against the Timberwolves. Look for the Magic to play an intense defensive game here with Bismack Biyombo, a defensive-minded center with no offensive skills, to get more minutes.
|
11-11-16 |
Evansville v. Louisville -22 |
|
47-78 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
I like the Cardinals to blow out Evansville here. Rick Pitino has installed a new uptempo offense so the Cardinals are going to be playing very fast, which could catch their early-season opponents such as Evansville off guard.
Louisville has talent up and down its roster. The Cardinals have won 38 straight home games in November. Penn transfer Tony Hucks and freshman Ryan McMahon showed their talents in Louisville's 109-71 exhibition win against Kentucky Wesleyan last week.
|
11-11-16 |
Evansville v. Louisville OVER 139.5 |
|
47-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
There's a perception Louisville's scoring could be down because its three top scorers from a year ago are gone. But Louisville is playing more up-tempo this season. That's going to translate into higher scoring games than the oddsmaker believes - at least at this beginning stage. The Cardinals scored 109 points in an exhibition game.
Evansville returns seven players, including its senior point guard.
|
11-10-16 |
Warriors -6 v. Nuggets |
|
125-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
Golden State is enduring some criticism this season with some of it being that the team is in transition losing their rim protectors and adjusting to the presence of superstar Kevin Durant. That talk was fueled when the Warriors were blown out by 29 points at home by the Spurs opening night. Since then, though, the Warriors have gone 6-1. It's business as usual as Golden State leads the league in points per game and also is the top shooting team in the NBA. The line is shorter than I'd it would come probably because the Warriors played last night and blew out Dallas by 21 points. I say the Warriors are in rhythm now and hot from beyond the arc. The Nuggets can't match that perimeter shooting. The Nuggets' rotation also is short a player as swingman Will Barton remains out. The Warriors are 18-9 ATS when playing on zero rest. They don't play again until Sunday when they host Phoenix. So the Warriors stars should play major minutes with no reason to hold anything back for this game. The Warriors also have revenge motivation having lost last season during their previous visit to Denver.
|
11-10-16 |
Bulls v. Heat -138 |
|
98-95 |
Loss |
-138 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
The Bulls are playing without rest and in action for the fifth in seven days. As much as Dwayne Wade would like to shine in his return to Miami there's a major fatigue factor he and the team face. Wade is 34 and played 34 minutes in a hard fought Chicago loss to Atlanta last night. The Bulls are 5-11 ATS the last 16 times playing on the second of back-to-back games. Chicago has played better at home this season. The Bulls are 1-3 away from United Center. Miami has covered 12 of its last 16 home games and went 4-0 SU and ATS versus Chicago last season. This is a home game Heat president Pat Riley doesn't want to lose. So a concentrated effort should be forthcoming from the Heat, who are getting solid years from their two key players Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic.
|
11-09-16 |
Rockets v. Spurs -8 |
Top |
101-99 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are playing in their fifth straight road game and just beat Washington last night. The Spurs haven't played in four days. I'd rather have Gregg Popovich than any other coach with extra prep time. The Spurs have used this time to get healthier. Houston has played a lightweight schedule. The Rockets lack the defense to keep this game under double-digits. San Antonio has won the last three meetings against the Rockets by an average of close to 16 points per game.
|
11-08-16 |
Nuggets v. Grizzlies -140 |
Top |
107-108 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is an early-season pivotal game for Memphis. The Grizzlies have lost two in a row at home during their homestand that concludes with this game. Those losses were to the Clippers and Trail Blazers. Now the Grizzlies step down in class to face Denver. The Grizzlies need this victory because six of their next seven games are on the road, including four straight. The Grizzlies finally have their full rotation intact with Tony Allen returning from injury and Chandler Parsons, the team's big free-agent acquisition, set to play in his second game of the season after being out following knee surgery. Parsons played in Memphis' last game, which was two days ago, and was understandably rusty going scoreless in 22 minutes. He should play much better for this matchup. The Grizzlies don't play again until Saturday so nothing should be held back. Denver is fat and happy after playing its finest game of the season, beating Boston 123-107 on the road this past Sunday. This is the final game of the Nuggets' five-game, nine-day road trip.
|
11-06-16 |
Jazz v. Knicks UNDER 195.5 |
|
114-109 |
Loss |
-117 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
First, note the starting time. It's 9 a.m. West Coast time. That's very early for Utah. Now look at Utah's numbers. The Jazz are second-to-last in scoring at 93.7 points a game. There's a chance they get their best offensive player, Gordon Hayward, here for the first time this season. If that's the case, Hayward figures to be rusty. The Jazz are tough defensively again ranking third in the NBA holding foes to 93.7 points per games and rate seventh in defensive field goal percentage. The Knicks have just played the Bulls and Rockets, two of the most up-tempo teams in the NBA. Now they draw the half-court, defensive-minded Jazz. The Knicks failed to break 100 points in three of their five games, not reaching 90 points in two of those contests. It was only against the Bulls and Rockets that they had big scoring games. New York is in transition mode with a new coach, new point guard and trying to pick up Phil Jackson's triangle offense with key new players. So the Knicks figure to have problems with Utah's tight defense while the Jazz are weak offensively and not helped by this rare starting time.
|
11-05-16 |
Kings v. Bucks -110 |
Top |
91-117 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
Considering the circumstances and matchup, it's not too much to ask Milwaukee to beat Sacramento at home. The Bucks are playing their best ball after starting slow. They are averaging 121 points in their last two games, victories against the Pelicans on the road and a blowout home win against the Pacers two days ago. The Kings are once again in transition with a new coach, Dave Joerger. He's an upgrade on George Karl, but it's going to take time for the Kings to begin to show improvement. They've had limited practice time opening the season playing six games in nine days. This marks their fourth road contest in six days. Sacramento doesn't have a strong bench and has one of the weaker starting backcourts with Ty Lawson filling it at point guard for suspended starter Darren Collison and shooting guard Arron Afflalo making just 37.5 percent of his field goals and averaging one assist. Each team has a superstar. The Kings have big man DeMarcus Cousins while the Bucks have versatile Giannis Anteokounmpo, who has carried over his tremendous play from late last season and is putting up monster numbers across the board. The Bucks rank among the top in points scored in the paint. The Bucks can come at Cousins with a three-headed monster of Miles Plumlee, Greg Monroe and John Henson. Milwaukee's bench is playing well, too.
|
11-04-16 |
Spurs -3.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
100-86 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
Revenge and Gregg Popovich. That says it all here. I want the Spurs going for me and I'll lay a short road price to get them after Utah dealt San Antonio a 106-91 loss this past Tuesday at San Antonio. The Spurs haven't played since. They've had three days to stew about that loss and prepare for this short revenge spot. The Jazz are playing well.They played a perfect game against the Spurs while San Antonio was flat. I don't see that combination coming up here. The Jazz aren't a strong perimeter team, especially with top scorer Gordon Hayward out. Yet they knocked down 15 3-pointers against San Antonio. The line could be higher but Tony Parker won't play for San Antonio. Parker is vastly overrated, though, at this late stage of his career. Parker is in his 16th season and is averaging less than six points a game while hitting only 33 percent of his shot. Utah hasn't been good when stepping up in class failing to cover 12 of the last 15 times versus above .500 opponents.
|
11-03-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 225 |
Top |
96-122 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 4 m |
Show
|
This isn't the high scoring Thunder team of years past. The Thunder, minus Kevin Durant, are now a grind-out, physical team totally dependent on Russell Westbrook and erratic Victor Oladipo to make plays. They are below average offensively in the frontcourt. The Thunder should play hard against Durant in his first game against his former team. The Thunder know they aren't going to beat the Warriors by playing run-and-gun with them. The Warriors have yet to find a consistent offensive rhythm yet as Durant fits into his new teammates. Golden State failed to break 106 points in half of its four games. There should be a lot of intensity to this matchup as the Thunder have revenge from last season's playoff loss - blowing a 3-1 series lead - along with the Durant factor. The under has cashed six of the last seven times the teams have played at Golden State.
|
11-02-16 |
Mavs +4 v. Jazz |
|
81-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
Dallas is getting into dire straits at 0-3. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Mavericks and they catch the Jazz in a letdown spot. Utah came in with its "A" game and upset the Spurs, 106-91, as a 9 1/2-point road 'dog last night. I doubt the Jazz can put together consecutive games like that in back-to-back days relying on over-the-hill veteran Joe Johnson. He and George Hill logged big minutes in that victory. The Jazz are without leading scorer, small forward Gordon Hayward, and their backcourt depth is down minus Alec Burks. Dallas has covered 11 of its last 15 road games going back to last season. This is what Wesley Matthews was quoted as saying about tonight's game: "We can't slip anymore. Whatever the hell it takes, that's what we've got to do." The Mavericks should have Dirk Nowitzki back for the first time since their opening game. Dallas is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings versus the Jazz, including 4-1 ATS in Salt Lake City.
|
11-01-16 |
Warriors v. Blazers +5 |
Top |
127-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 30 m |
Show
|
Not surprisingly it is talking a while for the Warriors to get in sync with newcomer Kevin Durant on board. Golden State is 0-3 ATS beating the Pelicans by eight and Suns by six each on the road in its last two games. If the Warriors play as poorly as they did against those two lottery teams, they'll lose straight-up to the revenge-minded Trail Blazers. Portland has nearly everyone back from last year's 44-win total. The Trail Blazers played the Warriors tough in the playoffs last season covering two of the five games during the series and losing another one in overtime although failing to cover. Portland had a 12-point third quarter lead in that game. Golden State is nowhere near reaching its peak yet so it's a ripe time to draw the Warriors. Damion Lillard is outplaying Stephen Curry so far while stating his case as a legitimate MVP candidate. The Warriors are making only 26.7 percent of their 3-pointers while the Trail Blazers ranked sixth connecting on 39.1 percent of their 3-pointers. Portland also is averaging two more points per game than Golden State. This is the last stop on the Warriors' three game road trip. They host Oklahoma City on Thursday, which is a much bigger game for Durant going against his former team.
|
11-01-16 |
Bucks v. Pelicans -3 |
|
117-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 5 m |
Show
|
New Orleans is 0-3 desperate for a victory. The Pelicans are better than their record. Their last two games were against Golden State and San Antonio. New Orleans has the best big man in basketball, Anthony Davis. The Bucks have no answer for him. Milwaukee is 1-2 and lucky to have that record. The Bucks lost by 11 points at home to the Hornets, nipped the Nets (who were playing without rest) at home by two at the buzzer and were blown out by 15 points against the Pistons two days ago. Going back to last season, the Bucks have failed to cover in their last nine games. Andre Drummond dominated the Bucks' weak frontcourt scoring 20 points and pulling down 23 rebounds. That's ominous considering how much damage Davis can do against a perimeter-dominated team such as the Bucks. The Bucks are not in sync yet in addition to their below average frontcourt. Their keys are Giannis Antetokoumpo, Jabari Parker and Matthew Dellavedova. Newcomer Tony Snell should be a large part of Milwaukee's rotation, too. Antetokoumpo is Milwaukee's best player by far. He's also the Bucks' main ballhandler and he lacks chemistry at this early stage with Dellavedova and Snell, both of whom weren't with Milwaukee last season. Snell just joined the Bucks a few days ago. The Pelicans have covered five of the last six times they have hosted the Bucks.
|
11-01-16 |
Lakers +9 v. Pacers |
|
108-115 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Pacers aren't playing well enough to lay this many points against an improved Lakers team that does have some young talent. Monta Ellis and Jeff Teague are a poor defensive backcourt for indiana.
The Lakers are better coached now with Luke Walton while the Pacers are going through a huge transition and new style approach with their coaching change from half-court Frank Vogel to up-tempo Nate McMillan. The Lakers do well against these types of opponents rather than tough rebounding grinders like the Thunder, who they last played.
|
10-30-16 |
Lakers +8 v. Thunder |
|
96-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
The Thunder are overrated. They are 2-0 but their wins have been against the 76ers by six points and Suns at home in overtime. Russell Westbrook is going to get his points. He's also going to do it by taking a ton of shots. The Thunder are a different team without Kevin Durant. They grind out victories and aren't built to cover large margins. The Lakers are better coached under Luke Walton and have a young, talent base that is maturing with Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell. The Lakers' improvement was on display when they defeated the Rockets in their opener.
|
10-30-16 |
Bucks +7.5 v. Pistons |
|
83-98 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
The Pistons aren't strong enough to lay this many points in a division matchup, especially being forced to use journeymen Ish Smith and Beno Udrih at point guard until Reggie Jackson returns from injury. The Bucks are due to shoot better. Their bench has been upgraded with swingman Tony Snell, a healthy John Henson and what looks to be big improvement from Rashad Vaughn. Matthew Delladova gives the Bucks a toughness they lacked last season. Detroit lost its opener, but then buried the Magic by 26 points at home in its last game. The Pistons are 3-8 ATS following a cover.
|
10-29-16 |
Nets v. Bucks -6 |
Top |
108-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 6 m |
Show
|
Milwaukee is likely looking at being 0-3 if it loses this game. So motivation should be high. The Bucks' starters didn't play well with the exception of Giannis Antetokounmpo when they lost at home in their opener, 107-96, to Charlotte this past Wednesday. The Hornets are off to a fast 2-0 start after beating the Heat on the road Friday night. Now the Bucks step way down in class facing the Nets - a team oddsmakers assigned the lowest over/under win total - at home. After this matchup, the Bucks travel to Detroit to play the Pistons on Sunday in a game they will be underdogs in. Brooklyn is 2-0 ATS getting a cover in its opener against the overpriced Celtics and upsetting the Pacers at home last night. It's going to be extremely rare to find the Nets in a happy and fat state. This is one of those rare times. The Nets are playing in their third game in four days. They have to go back on the road and then come back home to host the Bulls and Dwayne Wade on Monday. Brooklyn is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road contests and 0-6 ATS when playing without rest going back to last season. The Bucks have dominated the Nets winning 11 of the past 15 meetings, including all three times last season. This is extremely satisfying for Bucks coach Jason Kidd, who played and coached for the Nets and left that franchise on bad terms. Kidd will hold no qualms about trying to bury the Nets at home.
|
10-28-16 |
Magic v. Pistons -4 |
Top |
82-108 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 0 m |
Show
|
Detroit has won and covered in its last six games versus the Magic, winning those games by an average of 15.5 points per game. But now the Magic have retooled with a new coach and a more physical frontcourt. Will it make a difference? Maybe down the road, but not here. This is Orlando's second game. The Magic have seven new players. It's going to take them a while to get in sync. The Magic didn't look good in their opener, a 108-96 home loss to Miami that no longer has Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng. The Pistons are off a bad loss, too, opening with a 109-91 road defeat to Toronto. Fiery Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy ripped his team's lack of defense and rebounding in that game. Look for the Pistons to come back strong at home where they covered 63 percent of the time last season.
|
10-27-16 |
Celtics -118 v. Bulls |
|
99-105 |
Loss |
-118 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
This early in the season it's an advantage to already have played a game. That's the case here where the Celtics dispatched the Nets last night. Chicago is making its season debut. The Celtics had a game to get out kinks, get acquainted with Al Horford and establish rotation. Isaiah Thomas was in great form with 25 points and nine assists as the Celtics looked good in building up a 23-point fourth quarter lead against the Nets. But the Celtics had to bring their starters back on the court with two minutes left to hang on a for a 122-117 victory. I'm not worried about Boston's bench. The Celtics have excellent depth. Rookie Jaylen Brown displayed flashes that he's going to be a contributor, too, scoring nine points on 3-of-4 shooting. No team has been better than Boston in covering the spread when playing without rest. The Celtics are 40-17-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back games. The Bulls have a lot of new faces. Gone are Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah. In are Dwayne Wade, Rajon Rondo and Robin Lopez. It's going to take a while for Wade, Rondo and Jimmy Butler to get acclimated to one another. There's only one basketball after all. Boston is the better team with the superior coach. They should beat the Bulls here.
|
10-27-16 |
Wizards +4.5 v. Hawks |
Top |
99-114 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Wizards are dangerous when motivated and their star backcourt is healthy. Both factors are in play here. The Randy Wittman era mercifully ended in Washington. New coach Scott Brooks is an upgrade as the Wizards have the talent to not only make the playoffs - which they embarrassingly failed to do last season - but win a playoff series or two. That's because they have a backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Wall is an elite point guard while Beal is a tremendous talent who has had trouble staying healthy. He averaged 17.4 points last season in 55 games and starts this season at 100 percent. The Wizards should get improvement from young players Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre Jr. I'm expecting a better year, too, from big man Marcin Gortat. The Hawks lost Al Horford and gained way past-his-prime Dwight Howard. That's a downgrade. Atlanta also has a major question at point guard entrusting Dennis Schroder to replace departed All-Star Jeff Teague. Schroder is a wild card. He's backed up by unheralded Malcom Delaney. I give the Wizards a huge backcourt check mark in this matchup.
|
10-26-16 |
Heat v. Magic UNDER 200.5 |
|
108-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
Maybe the oddsmaker didn't quite comprehend who Orlando's new coach is when making this opening total. It's Frank Vogel. He's a defensive-minded, half-court style coach who doesn't want his team pushing pace. He won't have to concern himself with that happening in Orlando because the Magic aren't built to run. Orlando is a smashmouth team now under Vogel. Miami isn't a high-scoring team either especially with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh no longer on the team. Aside from Goran Dragic, neither team figures to do much offensive damage from the perimeter. The Magic are especially challenged offensively in the backcourt where defensive specialist Elfrid Payton is the point guard. The Magic are going to try winning by dominating the boards and playing hard-nosed defense. They aren't going to dominate the boards against Hassan Whiteside, the No. 3 rebounder and shot block leader last season. The Heat don't have to even be at their defensive-best to hold Orlando under 100 points.
|
10-26-16 |
Heat +4 v. Magic |
Top |
108-96 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 41 m |
Show
|
Miami has won six of its last seven season-openers, including the past five. That's a nice history going into this matchup, but no longer do the Heat have any of their Big Three as LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are all gone. Still, look for the Heat to make it six straight season-opening victories. Miami is down. but not as much as perceived. Goran Dragic is good and in line for his best season with Wade gone to the Bulls. Hassan Whiteside is a top-six big man. Justice Winslow holds a lot of promise. The Heat have depth and a system in place. Eric Spoelstra has been the head coach since 2008. Orlando holds promise, but is in transition right now. The Magic have a new coach, Frank Vogel, and are breaking in seven new players. The Heat have an identity. The Magic are seeking one. Vogel is changing the Magic installing a slowdown, smashmouth style. It's going to take time for this system to work. Orlando went 2-5 in preseason. One of those defeats was 107-77 to the Heat in Miami. Whiteside and Winslow - two of Miami's three best players - didn't even play. The Magic aren't going to be able to dominate the boards against Whiteside, who led the league in blocks and was No. 3 in rebounding last season. Note, too, that the Magic won't have physical big man Bismack Biyombo for this game. He's serving a one-game suspension for flagrant fouls committed accumulated during last season's playoffs when he played for the Raptors.
|
10-25-16 |
Jazz v. Blazers -5 |
Top |
104-113 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 52 m |
Show
|
Oddsmakers are high on Utah projecting the Jazz to win 47 1/2 games. Utah was 40-42 last season. Utah could very well be improved, but this isn't the time to jump on the Jazz. The Jazz are trying to combine youth with a number of imported veterans, including point guard George Hill, Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson. It's going to take time for the mix to get in sync. Things are made far worse for Utah because of injuries. Out until at least mid-November is the Jazz's best offensive player, Gordon Hayward. He has a broken finger. Guard and sixth man Alec Burks is out, too, with a knee injury and big man Derrick Favors is questionable with a knee injury. Those three players averaged close to a combined 50 points per game and all were a key part of Quin Snyder's rotation. If the oddsmaker knew now what he didn't know a month ago, Utah's win total would have been lower. This is what Hill was quoted as saying about his team: "It's tough because we don't have a full roster right now. And without a full roster, it's kind of hard to see exactly where we're at. Our focus right now is to get everybody healthy. ..." The Trail Blazers are poised to start fast with nearly everyone back from their 44-win team of a year ago, a team that reached the second round of the playoffs by beating the Clippers and then proved competitive against the Warriors. Portland holds a huge backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The Trail Blazers' backcourt was upgraded, too, with swingman Evan Turner joining the team. The two teams just met in a dress rehearsal this past Wednesday at Salt Lake City. Portland won, 88-84, on the road. The Trail Blazers won despite getting only eight free throw attempts compared to the Jazz making 19 of 23 free throws. Portland beat Utah in three of four regular season meetings last season. Lillard didn't play in the game the Trail Blazers lost to the Jazz. Portland is 5-1 SU the past six times hosting Utah, going 2-0 last season winning by an average of nine points.
|
06-16-16 |
Warriors +2.5 v. Cavs |
Top |
101-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
42 h 44 m |
Show
|
It's my belief the Warriors are the superior team here when they have Draymond Green. He returns to action for this Game 6. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving took advantage of Green's Game 5 suspension to combine to make an astounding 33 of 54 shots from floor. The rest of the Cavaliers aren't impressive and I don't see James and Irving having a Game for the Ages like they did in Game 5. Golden State has proven itself time after time following a loss going 16-1 in those instances! The Warriors are an underdog here making that powerful 94 percent trend even stronger. A telling statistic from Game 5 was the Cavaliers coming up with just 15 assists. Cleveland's ball movement wasn't good. Kevin Love continues to be a non-factor and the Warriors own a huge bench edge. The extra time off from playing on Monday favors the Warriors because they are much better coached with Steve Kerr over rookie coach Tyronn Lue. It's a plus if Andrew Bogut is able to play for the Warriors, but not essential. The Warriors are going to have fresh legs and Green, who not only is a tremendous defender but helps open the floor offensively for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. The importance of Green to Golden State is immeasurable and it will show in this game. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, are totally reliant on James and Irving. Those two aren't enough to stop a rested and superior Warriors team from winning.
|
06-10-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs OVER 206 |
Top |
108-97 |
Loss |
-107 |
19 h 12 m |
Show
|
The Warriors have played in 20 postseason games - and this total opened the lowest of any of them.
Cleveland scored 120 points in Game 3 of the series this past Wednesday. Golden State averaged 107 points in winning the first two games of the series. Each of the first three games of the series has been a blowout. A close game is due. The spread for this matchup reflects that, which puts the possibility of overtime into play. Steph Curry is due, too, for a huge game. He's averaging 16 points per game in the series, down 14 points per game from his 30-point season average. Golden State is the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA averaging a tick under 115 points per game. The Cavaliers have reached triple digits in 23 of their last 28 games. Their confidence is up after torching the Warriors for 120 points two days ago. Kyrie Irving is back on track and LeBron James remains unstoppable cementing his status as an all-time great. The Cavaliers accomplished this huge scoring game despite missing Kevin Love, their third-leading scorer. He's questionable due to a concussion. If Love sits out again, the Cavaliers go small and play fast. It's not a minus, though, for the over if Love plays since he's such a weak defender.
|
06-08-16 |
Warriors -106 v. Cavs |
Top |
90-120 |
Loss |
-106 |
31 h 19 m |
Show
|
Zig Zag can only work when two teams are close to even. That's not the case in this NBA Championship Series. Golden State clearly is dominant. The Cavaliers don't have the coaching, bench and versatility to beat the Warriors even in this must-win spot at home. It's not a fluke the Warriors have outscored the Cavaliers by a combined 48 points during the first two games. Switching venues to Cleveland should ensure a full effort from the Cavaliers, but that's not enough for them to win a game. The Cavaliers simply are outmatched here. Playing three days since Sunday's Game 2 is going to only magnify the gap because Steve Kerr is a far better coach than Cleveland's inexperienced rookie head man Tyronn Lue. But Lue could be Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich and Red Auberbach all rolled into one and he still couldn't find a way to beat the Warriors because his Cavaliers simply can't match the talent and depth of Golden State. There are no X's and O's that can change that. Golden State has covered 69 percent of the time when playing on two full days of rest during the past 51 instances. Cleveland is 5-12 ATS the past 17 times when playing on two full days of rest. The Cavaliers actually have been playing decent defense coming up with 15 steals and forcing 20 turnovers in Game 2. It didn't matter because the Warriors have so many aces besides superstar Stephen Curry and stars Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. Golden State is shooting better than 50 percent from the floor in the series. Lue can't hide the defensive weaknesses of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, who is hurt. Irving is playing terrible on offense, too, missing 24 of 36 field goals while having more turnovers than assists. LeBron James just doesn't have the necessary help. Curry, Thompson and Green do. The Warriors are effective when they go big with Andrew Bogut and you could argue that no one has played better two-way basketball than Andre Iguodala. Proof of this is the Warriors being plus 49 points when Iguodala has been on the court.
|
05-27-16 |
Cavs v. Raptors OVER 196 |
Top |
113-87 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 34 m |
Show
|
The oddsmaker has opened this Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals with the lowest total of the series. I don't believe it's justified. Cleveland is averaging 104.4 points in the series. That includes a give-up game where it scored just 84 points. Toronto is averaging 102 points at home where it plays much better. The Cavaliers are coming off a Game 5 home win where they scored 116 points. Only twice in their last 23 games have the Cavaliers failed to reach triple digits. Kevin Love broke out of his slump in Game 5 scoring 25 points making eight of 10 shots from the floor. Kyrie Irving scored 23 points hitting nine of 17 shots from the field. LeBron James certainly is going to get his points. But now Love and Irving are back on track. Kyle Lowry is the key to the Raptors. He's been terrible on the road, but strong at home averaging 27.5 points while connecting on 8 of 15 shots from beyond the arc. The Raptors also have back 7-foot center Jonas Valanciunas. He had been superb in the playoffs until suffering a sprained ankle that had sidelined him for nearly three weeks. He gives Toronto needed inside scoring and offensive versatility. Another key is both teams should have fresh legs since nobody played more than 32 minutes during the Game 5 blowout two nights ago. Only two players even logged more than 30 minutes.
|
05-26-16 |
Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
111-120 |
Loss |
-107 |
14 h 3 m |
Show
|
Yes, I know this is the Warriors' season and the Zig-Zag fully is in play here, which means Golden State is the side to play following two straight losses. But it's too difficult for me to turn down this many points considering how much the Thunder have outplayed the Warriors during Games 3 and 4 winning by a combined 52 points. Forget about last season when the Warriors won the championship. Forget the Warriors' record regular season. This is the present and simply put the Thunder are outrebounding, outshooting and even outhustling Golden Sate. The statistics for the series bear this out: The Thunder are shooting 45.6 percent from the floor to the Warriors' 44.4 percent, are plus 27 on the boards, plus six in steals, have 14 more blocked shots and have committed five fewer turnovers. Oklahoma City is the healthier team, has the momentum and its confidence level is at its highest. Contrast this with the Warriors, who are on the wrong end of an elimination game for the first time in Steve Kerr's two years. The Warriors are in uncharted waters. Their big men aren't playing well. Neither is Draymond Green. Stephen Curry isn't physically right, maybe playing at 70 percent since returning six games ago from a sprained right MCL. The Cavaliers blew out the Raptors last night after losing two in a row. But there's a class difference between those two teams. There isn't a class difference between these two teams. If there is, it's the Thunder being much better than the Warriors right now.
|
05-24-16 |
Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 222 |
Top |
94-118 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 34 m |
Show
|
Golden State and Oklahoma City are the two highest scoring teams in the NBA. But to reach this high of a total both have to be on their games. That hasn't happened yet in this Western Conference Finals. Through the first three games of the series, the losing team has averaged 99.3 points. Oklahoma City is coming off a 133-105 burial of the Warriors. Now it's up to the Warriors to make the proper adjustments. I see Steve Kerr doing that by limiting the Thunder in transition. Perhaps no player is more lethal on the fast break than Russell Westbrook. The Warriors have the flexibility and talent to also be effective in a half court game. That means a slower tempo. I fully anticipate - and expect - an intense, gut-check defensive effort from the Warriors. The under has cashed 12 of the last 17 times the Warriors gave up triple digits in their last game and has cashed six of the past seven times Golden State has surrendered 125 points or more in its previous game.
|
05-23-16 |
Cavs -6 v. Raptors |
Top |
99-105 |
Loss |
-100 |
31 h 15 m |
Show
|
OK, the Raptors got their measure of respect beating Cleveland, 99-84, at home in Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Final series this past Saturday. There is no way a game like that happens to Cleveland in Game 4. I fully expect to see the Cavaliers play their "A" game. Even their "B" game should be enough to cover this number. Toronto had its moment. Now things revert back. The Cavaliers buried the Raptors by 31 and 19 points, respectively, during the first two games of this series. The Cavaliers are - and always will be - in control of this series. They totally outclass the Raptors, who have gone as far as they can go. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Co. buried the Pistons and Hawks. The Raptors are next in line. Toronto has failed to cover six of the past seven times following a victory. The Raptors also are 4-10 ATS versus foes with a winning record.
|
05-21-16 |
Cavs v. Raptors OVER 198.5 |
Top |
84-99 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 2 m |
Show
|
I have no doubt the Cavaliers are going to put up their share of points here. They've scored triple digits in their last 20 games, are averaging 113.4 points during their last five games and 111.5 points during the first two games of this series despite taking the air out of the ball during the final minutes because of holding huge leads. Toronto has been embarrassed the first two games - both on the road. Now the Raptors are home where a supreme effort should be forthcoming. It's an understatement to say point guard Kyle Lowry is way overdue having averaged just nine points in the series while missing 20 of 28 shots from the floor, including 14 of 15 from beyond the arc. The oddsmaker opened this total again under 200. Neither game exceeded 199. But there's a reason for that. There have been less than 80 points scored during the two fourth quarters because of the blowouts. Neither team even shot the ball during their final possession. Cleveland is too powerful for Toronto. But this shouldn't be a blowout. Certainly the oddsmaker doesn't think so dropping the line in half. The over has cashed 24 of the past 30 times the Raptors have played following a double-digit defeat.
|
05-19-16 |
Raptors +13 v. Cavs |
Top |
89-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
Never before have the Cavaliers blown out a team in the playoffs like they did Toronto in Game 1 winning by 31 points. The Cavaliers have yet to taste defeat in the postseason and they certainly can't be faulted for feeling overconfident in hosting the Raptors in Game 2. No, I don't see the Raptors pulling off an upset for the ages here. But I do see a better situation for Toronto and a strong effort forthcoming. That should ensure the Raptors of staying within a dozen points of Cleveland. Keep in mind, the Raptors were tired and obviously flat in Game 1 this past Tuesday having just finished a grueling seven-game series against Miami on Sunday. The opener against Cleveland was Toronto's third game at a different gym in five days. Only one day to prepare and regroup to face the Cavaliers wasn't nearly enough. Now the Raptors have been at the same venue for three days. So look for a lot fresher Raptors team especially star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery, who saw their shortest playing time against the Cavaliers in any playoff game. Toronto has proven to be resilient and tough following a loss covering seven of the past 10 times in that instance. Each time the Raptors lost in the playoffs, too, they bounced back with a victory going 6-0 in these spots. The Raptors also are 13-5 ATS the past 18 times versus foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Raptors had a better record than Detroit and Atlanta. Yet the Cavaliers were 10 1/2 and 11-point home favorites against the Pistons in the playoffs and minus 7 and 7 1/2 versus the Hawks at home in the playoffs. So the Cavaliers certainly are paying a premium for their lopsided Game 1 victory. I'll take the value with an underdog that has much to prove, including a lot of self-respect, following Game 1.
|
05-18-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors OVER 221.5 |
Top |
91-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
32 h 47 m |
Show
|
The opening total in Game 2 of the Thunder-Warriors Western Conference Finals is down from Game 1 when the number was as high as 224. I thought the oddsmaker had it right with his Game 1 total. Golden State led the NBA in scoring at 114.9 points a game and Oklahoma City was No. 2 at 110.2 points. The teams combined for 210 points in Game 1 with the Thunder winning, 108-102. There was a rust factor in that matchup with Golden State having been idle for four days while the Thunder had not played for three days. That rust factor will be gone for Wednesday's game since Game 1 was played on Monday. Oklahoma City reached 108 points despite Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combining to make just 17 of 51 shots from the floor. The Thunder shot 68.8 percent from the foul line when during the season their free throw percentage was 78.2 percent. The Thunder know they are capable of playing better even though they pulled the upset. Golden State managed only 42 points in the second half on Monday with just 14 coming in the fourth quarter. Those numbers are extremely out of character for the Warriors. I don't see that pattern repeating in this Game 2. If the Warriors get up by 14 points - like they did in Game 1 - they are not going to letup physically or mentally. That means keeping a fast pace. During the season, the Warriors were No. 2 in tempo. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined to connect on 20 of 47 shots from the field in Game 1. They are capable of better. The Warriors also shot poorly from the foul line and from 3-point range. The Warriors made just 64.7 percent of their free throws and shot 36.7 percent from 3-point range when during the season they averaged an NBA-best 41.6 percent. Both teams - and their superstars - are due to shoot better from the floor. The free throw shooting should be much improved, too. The feeling out process is finished. These teams are about offense. And now that the total is lower than before this is the time to take advantage with an over.
|
05-16-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 |
Top |
108-102 |
Loss |
-106 |
13 h 14 m |
Show
|
The Thunder are getting a lot of kudos for knocking off San Antonio. But this is a bad spot for Oklahoma City. Remember what happened to the Thunder when they played at San Antonio in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series? They were blitzed by 32 points. Now I'm not saying Golden State is going to bury the Thunder like that, but I do believe the timing and matchup is right for the Warriors to win by double digits in this opener of the Western Conference finals. The Warriors have a tremendous home floor as evidenced by losing just once at Oracle Arena all season. Golden State went 3-0 versus Oklahoma City during the regular season winning at home against the Thunder by 15 and 8 points, respectively. The Warriors have covered in seven of their last eight home game, including going 5-1 ATS during the playoffs. Now much of that is factored into the line. What's isn't built as much into the line is the belief that the Warriors have the versatility, flexibility, superior coaching and athletic talent to take advantage of being off for four full days and counter the Thunder's rebounding edge. Oklahoma City was able to beat San Antonio by dominating the Spurs on the boards. That forced the Spurs into a deliberate style where they had to rely on a mediocre perimeter game. San Antonio got out of sync. Some of the Spurs showed their considerable age. The Warriors' talent are in their prime. Stephen Curry proved he's back from his knee injury averaging 34.5 points, 9.5 assists and seven rebounds during the final two games of Golden State's semifinal victory over the Trail Blazers. Curry and banged-up center Andrew Bogut should heavily benefit from the extra time off between series. I expect the Warriors to be in sync and able to hurt the Thunder via fast breaks, something the older and slower Spurs were unable to do. The Thunder aren't going to be able to beat the Warriors like they did the Spurs. That difference is going to manifest itself in this Game 1. There's also the chance the Thunder still are on a big high from upsetting the Spurs and not able to settle down for this much different opponent especially being on the road.
|
05-12-16 |
Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 |
Top |
99-113 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 58 m |
Show
|
I can understand a certain respect level for the Spurs and Gregg Popovich. But opening the Spurs a road favorite based on the past four games in this playoff series is just plain wrong. Since getting blown out in Game 1, the Thunder has won three of four winning by one on the road, 14 at home and by four points on the road while losing by four points in Game 3 at home. The Thunder has outrebounded the Spurs in each of these past four games. And that's the key to this game and the series. The Spurs and Popovich are limited in what they can plan and do when Oklahoma City is controlling the boards. The Thunder led the NBA in rebounding this season. They outrebounded the Spurs by 18 boards in Tuesday's Game 5 victory. Unsung Steven Adams is coming up big. There is no fluke to Oklahoma City controlling the backboard. This is what Tony Parker was quoted as saying following the Spurs' Game 5 loss: "We know that's (rebounding) the key of the series. We know we have to control the boards. We made a lot of stops tonight (Tuesday), but we just can't get the boards and it's killing us in the end. Control the boards. I think that's the key of the series. We can't keep giving them opportunities to score." Popovich has tried to limit superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook by playing more half-court offense. The Spurs actually were getting needed stops in Game 5 holding Durant and Westbrook to a combined 20 of 48 (41.6 percent) shooting from the floor. But the Thunder still were able to upset the Spurs in San Antonio by their rebounding dominance. That's not going to change especially with the venue being moved now to Oklahoma City and the Thunder that much more confident. San Antonio built a 67-15 regular-season record by steamrolling lesser foes. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS the last 10 times when facing foes with a winning mark above .600. They also have failed to cover seven of the last 10 times following a loss. Oklahoma City is playing its finest basketball right now. The Thunder certainly are capable of winning a championship. They are 12-4 ATS the past 16 times meeting opponents with a winning record. The Thunder also have covered seven of their last nine games against San Antonio and are 12-3 ATS the last 15 times hosting the Thunder.
|
05-10-16 |
Thunder +7 v. Spurs |
Top |
95-91 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
Since Game 1, the Thunder have outplayed the Spurs winning two of the last three. Oklahoma City has the most talented player, Kevin Durant, and is the better rebounding team. Steve Adams has turned into a strong wildcard proving to be highly effective inside against San Antonio. The Spurs have much on their plate already dealing with Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now Adams has to be accounted for, too. Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times on the road going against an opponent with a home winning percentage above .600. The Spurs fattened their record during the season burying patsies. They are 2-7 ATS the past nine times hosting foes with a winning percentage above .600. Yes, home-court means a lot. I respect the heck out of San Antonio and Gregg Popovich especially when playing at home. But this line is inflated enough to get involved with Oklahoma City.
|
05-09-16 |
Raptors v. Heat OVER 189.5 |
Top |
87-94 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 46 m |
Show
|
If you count just regulation, all three games so far in this series have gone under the total. The Raptors have gone under in eight of their 10 playoff games. The Heat's gone under in seven of their last eight playoff games. So why go over? Because the dynamics are about to change starting with this Game 4. Toronto lost 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas for the series with an ankle injury. Miami is down its center, Hassan Whiteside. His troublesome right knee bucked just six minutes into Game 3. Whiteside, who led the NBA in blocked shots, has a sprained MCL. This is the type of injury that has sidelined Stephen Curry for the past two weeks. Because of these two key center injuries, the Raptors and Heat are each going to play small-ball. That means increased tempo and a faster paced game. It's a huge plus for Toronto's All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan because they'll be able to have more open space to work. Lowry finally found his shooting stroke pouring in 29 points during the second half of Game 3. Whiteside not only is tough defensively, but weak offensively. He had only five assists in his last 17 games. He'll be replaced by a pair of undersized centers - Udonis Haslem and Josh McRoberts - and Amare Stoudemire, who is near the end of his career and never played defense even in his prime.
The Raptors are forced to give major minutes to 6-foot-9 Bismack Biyombo at center. Biyombo can't score, but is undersized weakening Toronto defensively. Note, too, the game is in Miami where the Heat have averaged 110.3 points during their last 17 games at American Airlines Arena.
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article76428262.html#storylink=cpy
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article76428262.html#storylink=cpy
|
05-07-16 |
Warriors v. Blazers OVER 211.5 |
Top |
108-120 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 56 m |
Show
|
Golden State and Portland have gone over the total in seven of their last eight head-to-head meetings. I expect that trend to continue here. The Warriors finally showed they could adjust to temporary life without Stephen Curry scoring 34 points in the fourth quarter during the team's last meeting, which was this past Tuesday. Yes, five days ago. Both teams are fully fresh now. The Trail Blazers don't have the personnel to try to grind down the Warriors with a physical, half-court style. They know that. Their best approach is to play fast and aggressive. That's what they did in scoring 87 points during the first three quarters of Tuesday's game. Unfortunately for the Trail Blazers, their players were tired and ran out of gas. That won't happen here because of the long rest period between games. I see Portland coming out with a lot of energy, sparked by its home crowd. The Warriors welcome a fast-paced, wide open style. They have the shooters - even without Curry - to pile up points in a hurry.
|
05-06-16 |
Spurs v. Thunder OVER 200 |
Top |
100-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 6 m |
Show
|
The teams last played back on Monday so expect lots of energy. The Spurs aren't going to shoot 60.7 percent from the floor like in Game 1. But they certainly figure to shoot better than the 42.6 percent they did in Game 2. San Antonio averaged 103.5 points a game during the regular season and is averaging 105.5 points in six playoff games. The Thunder surrender an average of 103 points per contest. The Thunder was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA during the regular season averaging 110.2 points a game. It was an encouraging sign for them to see Kevin Durant hit 11 of 19 shots from the floor in Game 2 after being in a shooting slump during the postseason. Oklahoma City shoulder enter this matchup full of confidence and vigor after upsetting the Spurs in San Antonio. That means staying aggressive on fast break opportunities. Superstars dominate the playoffs - and these teams have them. LaMarcus Aldridge has been on fire missing just 10 of 44 field goals during the first two games of this series while averaging 39.5 points. I see the Spurs having better ball movement and improved possession in this Game 3 as the Thunder look to clamp down on Aldridge.
|
05-05-16 |
Heat v. Raptors -4.5 |
Top |
92-96 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 32 m |
Show
|
The Raptors find themselves in a must-win spot here by virtue of losing Game 1, 102-96, in overtime at home this past Tuesday. A Toronto loss to Miami in this Game 2 could set up a Heat sweep with Games 3 and 4 in Miami. The oddsmaker is well aware of this. It's certainly no bargain laying this many points with the Raptors. But I'm confident the handicap will hold. This is Toronto's game to win. Toronto is the younger team with much to prove especially All-Star Kyle Lowry. The Heat are the old gunslingers. They managed to thwart off the Raptors' late challenge in Game 1, but Dwayne Wade doesn't have much spring in his step and Hassan Whiteside isn't 100 percent. Both teams had to go the full seven games to win their first-round series. The Heat are the older team and had to come back from being down 3-2 to Charlotte to pull it off. The Heat will be the more fatigued team on Thursday, in action for the third time in five days having gone from home to Charlotte to Toronto. Even defeating the Raptors in Game 1, Miami still has only covered three of its past 11 road matchups. It's easy to get down on Toronto for not winning at home in Game 1. Still, let's not forget the Raptors had a better season record than Miami by a whopping eight games, won three of four against the Heat during the regular season and is playing at Air Canada Centre where they averaged 104.4 points per game. Now this isn't to cast a blind eye to how poorly DeMar DeRozan and Lowry are playing. The Raptors live-and-die with their two backcourt All-Stars. Toronto's backcourt shot just 12-of-35 (34.2 percent) from the floor in Game 1. Lowry had a mere seven points, including a half-court 3-pointer that forced overtime. Miami, by contrast, had its backcourt connect on 20 of 41 (48.7 percent) shots from the field. Yet the Raptors still took the Heat to overtime. Lowry and DeRozan didn't play well either in the Raptors' first-round series against the Pacers combining to shoot less than 32 percent from the field. During the season, the Raptors hit 37 percent of their 3-pointers. Only four teams had a higher percentage. Toronto's backcourt stars are well overdue to shoot much better. If those two just have their average games, the Raptors should easily prevail given how well some of their other players such as center Jonas Valanciunas are performing. I'm not advocating the Raptors are the superior team and should win the series. But I do believe the zig-zag pattern is a fit here. It's a natural letdown spot for the Heat while the Raptors should display a game-of-the-year type mentality.
|
05-02-16 |
Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 200.5 |
Top |
93-104 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 12 m |
Show
|
First off, these are two outstanding defensive teams. Cleveland gave up the fourth-fewest points per game in the NBA while the Hawks ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and was the top-ranked defensive team since the All-Star break. The Hawks held Boston to an average of 89 points per game in regulation during their last three games of their first-round series. The Celtics are a higher-scoring team than the Cavaliers. The under has now cashed in seven of Atlanta's past eight games. Atlanta should be super fired-up to set a tough defensive tone having been swept by the Cavaliers in the playoffs last season. The Hawks are improved defensively this season, know the Cavaliers and LeBron James much better and have their confidence up after defeating the Celtics by winning Game 6 in Boston, a very difficult venue. Then there is the rust factor - and it should prove huge. Atlanta last played on Thursday while Cleveland will be in action for the first time in eight days. The under has cashed five of the past six times when the Cavaliers haven't played in three or more days.
|
05-01-16 |
Blazers v. Warriors -8 |
Top |
106-118 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 48 m |
Show
|
A mere 12 hours after dispatching the Chris Paul and Blake Griffin-less Clippers in six games, the Trail Blazers left for the Bay Area to meet Golden State for this Sunday matinee. The Warriors are an outstanding team even without injured Stephen Curry. But they also have a nice scheduling edge here, too. Golden State has been idle since Wednesday. Once word came out that Paul and Griffin were out it was a foregone conclusion that Portland would win its first round series. So the rested Warriors should be well prepared for the Trail Blazers. Not only do the Warriors have a sense of urgency to play well at home knowing that Curry is likely out at least the next three games, but they won't be taking the underdog Trail Blazers for granted. That's because Portland dealt Golden State its worst loss of the season, 137-105, on Feb. 19 in Portland. It was quite a different story when the teams last met. The Warriors beat the Trail Blazers, 136-111, at Oracle Arena on April 3. The Warriors also hosted the Trail Blazers on March 11 and won, 128-112. Portland does not have a good history on the road against the Warriors failing to cover in 21 of its past 28 visits. Golden State is tough to game plan against even without Curry because of its versatility and multi-dimensional players. The Warriors, right now, can stake their claim to being among the greatest teams in NBA history. I think Portland's Terry Stotts is one of the more underrated coaches, but he's pressed for time to properly game plan for the Warriors because of the short time span after his team finished off the Clippers. He and his staff had to fully concentrate on getting past the Clippers.
|
04-29-16 |
Clippers +10 v. Blazers |
Top |
103-106 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 4 m |
Show
|
No Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin. No chance for the Clippers. We know this. They know this. But the Clippers still have enough pride and talent to not go gently into the night against one of the weaker and more inexperienced playoff teams. We also know the Clippers don't perform well under playoff pressure. The Clippers blew a seven-point against the Thunder in the final minute of their Game 5 Western Conference semifinal game to lose that series two seasons ago and last season blew a three-to-one game series lead against the Rockets. But now the pressure is on Portland not the Clippers. Nothing is expected of the Clippers with Paul and Griffin out. So I'm expecting the Clippers to actually step up. This is what Clippers coach Doc Rivers was quoted as saying, "I think now that we know what to expect, you'll see a much better game for a full game. We win Game 6, it's right back to our momentum. ... We're still focused and ready to go." Usually I don't put much stock in what a coach says. But this quote rings true. The Trail Blazers have a lot of youth. They are inexperienced in big games and have a poor recent playoff history especially in a favorite's role. The Clippers still have talent and pride with DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford and Paul Pierce. These guys aren't exactly stiffs.
|
04-29-16 |
Heat v. Hornets -121 |
|
97-90 |
Loss |
-121 |
17 h 37 m |
Show
|
Charlotte has won three in a row. The Hornets are playing far better right now than the Heat. Charlotte has confidence and is the fresher, deeper team. The Hornets also have home-court advantage and a chip on their shoulder, a hungry bunch determined to earn respect and attention, which they haven't gotten yet. This is their chance - and everything lines up in their favor, including a fair price in which to back them. The Heat are showing their age. They are averaging only 84.3 points during their last three games while shooting less than 39 percent from the floor. Dwayne Wade doesn't have it anymore at 34. Neither does Joe Johnson and Luol Deng. Goran Dragic isn't playing as well as he did earlier and Hassan Whiteside can't be counted on to score in the paint. Miami's bench isn't as good as Charlotte's either. Nicolas Batum is back, too, for the Hornets providing a further boost. The Heat have failed to cover in eight of their last nine road games. They have lost in five of their last six road games at Charlotte. The Hornets have won 32 of their 43 home games this season. This is their moment.
|
04-29-16 |
Heat v. Hornets OVER 190 |
|
97-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 35 m |
Show
|
The last three games in this series have all gone under. Miami hasn't broken 90 points during these past three games. The result is the lowest opening total of the series - down some nine points from the closing Game 1 total. It's time for a bounce back. I see it happening here in this Game 6 do-or-die spot for the Heat. Miami averaged 119 points while shooting 57.8 percent from the field during the first two games of the series. That definitely was too high. A correction was bound to happen - and it did with Miami averaging 84.3 points and 38.6 shooting during the next three games. Those scoring and shooting marks are definitely too low. It's time for another correction. So I see the Heat putting up a scoring mark somewhere in the middle from their first two games compared to their past three games. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra wants his team to play loose and free flowing. The Heat have played tight with their frustrations spilling out. Miami averaged 100 points during the regular season. The Heat have too many pros and good shooters to be kept under 90 points for a fourth straight game. Charlotte should put up a good number of points, too, with Nicolas Batum having played 25 minutes in Game 5 after returning from an ankle injury. The Hornets were the No. 11 scoring team in the NBA averaging 103.4 points. The Hornets ranked fifth in free throw percentage and have shot even better from the free throw line during the series.
|
04-28-16 |
Hawks -123 v. Celtics |
Top |
104-92 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 38 m |
Show
|
Boston has a strong home-court. Granted. But the Hawks are the better - and healthier - team. That matters the most here. Atlanta has built up a lead as high as 15 points in four of the five games in this series. The Hawks are coming off a confident-building, 110-83, burial of the Celtics this past Tuesday at home. The Hawks have accomplished their 3-2 series lead with All-Star Al Horford, perhaps their best player, struggling missing 21 of 29 shots from the floor in the last three games. Horford is averaging 6.3 points, half his season average. It's a plus if Horford can get back to his normal performance. Unlike Atlanta, Boston isn't healthy. Avery Bradley, the Celtics' No. 2 leading scorer and perhaps top defender, is out. Kelly Olynyk is bothered by a bad shoulder. Jae Crowder hasn't shaken the rust off since returning from a knee injury. Jared Sullinger is outclassed by Paul Millsap. But the biggest negative for the Celtics is Isaiah Thomas being hampered by a sprained ankle that he re-aggravated in the last game. The Celtics have been too dependent on Thomas. The Hawks have been the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference since the All-Star break and they clamped down on Thomas in their Game 5 victory double and triple-teaming him knowing the Celtics lack any other effective outside shooters. It's a big stretch to expect Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier to step up. Brad Stevens is an outstanding coach. He's gotten as much out of the Celtics as possible. But he doesn't have the cards here especially with Thomas limited. The Hawks need to take care of business with the Cavaliers rested and waiting for this series to end. It's not too much to ask the Hawks to beat a crippled Celtics team, who are minus Bradley and have Thomas at less than 100 percent.
Stephen Nover's NFL Draft Props
Usually you're paying high juice. But NFL draft props are beatable. The books are sitting ducks as updated - and key - information becomes available leading up to the event.
I've always made money betting NFL props. I'm very confident the streak continues this year. Here are my 2016 NFL draft props: Will there be Over/Under 2 1/2 quarterbacks drafted in the first round? Go Over 2 1/2. The juice is exceptionally high on this one, but it's as close to a lock as you'll find with Jared Goff and Carson Wentz likely going first and second and Paxton Lynch possibly being a top-10 pick, too. There's even a chance a fourth quarterback could sneak into the first round such as Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg. Quarterback is the one position teams will reach on hoping to strike gold in the quarterback-driven NFL. Ohio State figures prominently in the draft. I'm involved in three props involving Ohio State players. They are: Ezekiel Elliott Over/Under 8 1/2 on when he gets picked. Go Under 8 1/2. Elliott is the most complete running back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. It wouldn't shock me to see him go as high as No. 4 to the Cowboys. Darron Lee Over/Under 10 1/2 on when he gets picked. Go Over 10 1/2. I don't see him being among the top 15 players chosen. He's downgraded by his lack of size. Joey Bosa to be drafted ahead of Myles Jack. Bosa is the best pass rusher in the draft. He should be among the top five players selected. Myles Jack Over/Under 8 on when he gets picked. Go Over 8. Jack's stock has dropped because of concerns about his sore knee. He's out of the top 10 now and slipping. Over/Under 5 1/2 wide receivers/running backs go in the first round. Go Under 5 1/2. It's a weak year for wide receivers. There are no sure-fire wide receiver stars like in the past few years and Elliott is likely the lone running back to go in Round 1. The only wide receivers I see going in the first round are Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman and Josh Dotson.
|
04-27-16 |
Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 212.5 |
|
81-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
A lot changes with Stephen Curry out. The Warriors know they have to tighten their defense and change their style. Steve Kerr is a sharp enough coach and has the pieces to make the necessary adjustments with his team's versatility and depth. The under has been the way to go so far in the playoffs covering at a 72 percent rate. This total seems high, too, given that the Rockets and Warriors have combined to average 202.7 points per game during the first four games of the series with the Rockets breaking 97 points only once.
|
04-27-16 |
Hornets v. Heat -5.5 |
Top |
90-88 |
Loss |
-106 |
17 h 45 m |
Show
|
I don't see upstart Charlotte beating the veteran Heat three straight times. Charlotte got back into the series by winning the last two - both at home. Now the Hornets visit AmericanAirlines Arena. Here is Miami's history at home: The Heat have won and covered their last eight home games. Each win was by eight or more points. They are 13-0 at home during their past 13 first-round playoff games and 13-2 in their last 15 home postseason contests. The two losses during this span were to San Antonio. Now here is Charlotte's history on the road and in the playoffs: The Hornets are 2-19 in their last 21 games at Miami. This includes losses in Game 1 and Game 2 of this series by a combined 44 points. The Hornets are 0-9 in their last nine playoff games. The Hornets got back into the series by taking advantage of their homecourt and clamping down defensively defeating Miami, 96-80 and 89-85, the past two games. The savvy, veteran-laden Heat are picking their spots. Now is their chance. Charlotte has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times following a victory. The Hornets have surrendered an average of 112 points to the Heat in four games at AmericanAirlines Arena this season. Miami committed the fourth-fewest fouls in the league during the regular season. Yet the Heat have been whistled for 18 more fouls than Charlotte. I don't see the Hornets getting the benefit of their flops on the road. The Hornets have shot 28 more free throws than Miami in the series, connecting on 82.8 percent from the line. The league has to be aware of that discrepancy. The Hornets are an excellent free throw shooting team, but they aren't that good averaging 79 percent from the line during the regular season. The Hornets, to their credit, won these past two games minus injured Nicolas Batum. He's a game-time decision because of an ankle injury. If Batum remains out it's a plus for the Heat. Batum is one of Charlotte's three best players. But even if Batum plays, he could be rusty and could disrupt Charlotte's rhythm.
|
04-26-16 |
Pacers v. Raptors OVER 191.5 |
Top |
99-102 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 5 m |
Show
|
The first four games of this series have all gone under. The highest combined score between the two teams was 190 points in Game 1. So why buck the odds and go over for this Game 5? Many reasons. Let's start with this being the lowest opening over/under of the series. Then we have the Pacers rediscovering their offensive rhythm in the last game scoring 100 points. Paul George continues to be a monster averaging 26.3 points a game in the series, but point guard George Hill stepped up and Pacers coach Frank Vogel opened up the floor more by pairing energetic Myles Turner with Ian Mahinmi, who looked great. The Raptors entered the playoffs reaching triple digits in 13 of their last 14 home games. However, they are averaging only 93 points per game in the series. That's what happens when Toronto's two stars - Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan - are shooting just 32.2 percent and 29.6 percent, respectively, from the floor. Those two haven't suddenly forgotten how to shoot and Indiana's defensive isn't that stellar. I'm looking for a strong rebound from those two. They are long overdue. Toronto has gotten double-digit inside scoring from 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas in all but one of the games during the series. DeMarre Carroll is starting to play much better, too, for the Raptors. Carroll is an excellent defender, but his scoring has picked up. He's averaging just under 15 points during the past two games.
|
04-25-16 |
Mavs +14.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
104-118 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 39 m |
Show
|
Down 3-1 to the Thunder, I don't see the Mavericks' proud veterans mailing in this game. Dirk Nowitzki and Co. have a lot of pride and are much better coached under Rick Carlisle than Oklahoma City is under rookie NBA coach Billy Donovan.
Wesley Matthews has done an excellent job keeping a frustrated Kevin Durant in check. I'm sure the Mavericks didn't appreciate Durant conking Justin Anderson on the head during the final minute of the Thunder's 119-108 Game 4 victory this past Saturday. The point spread is so large because the Mavericks' point guards can't match Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City has a huge rebounding edge. But Enes Kanter and Steven Adams - although coming off strong performances - are not exactly All-Stars. The bar isn't set that high for Dallas to hang in. Oklahoma City does have better depth, but the Mavericks will have had two full days off to rest and game plan. Dallas has covered in nine of its last 12 road games. The Mavericks have proven tough, too, when going against upper tier opponents covering seven of the past nine times versus foes with a home winning percentage above .600. The Thunder has lost 15 times when leading in the fourth quarter. A lot of that is on Donovan, who gets outcoached. Oklahoma City is a mediocre 6-6 straight-up in its last 12 games. The Mavericks also have a strong history when playing in Oklahoma City covering 71 percent of the time there during their past 29 road trips.
|
04-24-16 |
Warriors v. Rockets OVER 217 |
|
121-94 |
Loss |
-102 |
24 h 54 m |
Show
|
Things are back to normal for Golden State with the return of Stephen Curry. That means a high-scoring game. The Warriors lead the NBA in points per game at 115. They also finished No. 1 in two-point and 3-point shooting. Only four times in their past 44 games have the Warriors not scored triple digits. The Rockets rank 25th defensively. Houston has surrendered triple digits during 80 percent of its last 40 games. The Rockets ranked fourth in scoring, though. If you discount their Game 1 performance versus the Warriors, the Rockets are averaging 116 points in their last six games.
|
04-24-16 |
Warriors -8 v. Rockets |
Top |
121-94 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 23 m |
Show
|
I expect Stephen Curry to play - and play well. He has recovered from his sprained ankle. The Warriors are due for a good shooting game. They averaged an NBA-best 48.7 percent from the floor during the regular season, but have shot just 42.9 percent in Game 1 and 43 percent in Game 3. Houston is not a strong defensive club. Only five clubs gave up more points per game than the Rockets. The Warriors received their wake-up call and the Rockets got their measure of respect during Thursday night's 97-96 Houston victory. Despite that loss, Golden State still has defeated Houston 14 of the past 16 times. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS following a victory.
|
04-22-16 |
Spurs -11.5 v. Grizzlies |
Top |
96-87 |
Loss |
-107 |
18 h 55 m |
Show
|
No home-court isn't going to matter. Neither is better execution. The crippled Grizzlies are simply totally overmatched by the Spurs. It's not a fluke San Antonio has held the Grizzlies to an average of 71 points in jumping out to a 2-0 series lead. The Spurs are one of the greatest defensive teams ever.
San Antonio's average win in the series is by 29 points. So I'm surprised this line opened so short. The Grizzlies, down their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - can't compete inside nor outside. They are shooting less than 36 percent from the floor during the series. Memphis is down to using Jordan Farmar and Xavier Munford as its point guards. Those two are a combined 10-of-26 from the field. The Spurs' bench is easily better than the Grizzlies' starters outscoring them by an average of 16 points. Zach Randolph is the only decent Grizzlies' player still standing and he's totally frustrated shooting 26.7 percent in the series while averaging a puny 8.5 points a game. It was easy to see this coming as the Grizzlies are 1-12 in their last 13 games, including losing their past six games. The Spurs have whipped the Grizzlies seven consecutive times, winning the last two in Memphis by an average of 17 points. All together, San Antonio has covered seven of its last nine in Memphis. The Spurs have destroyed the Grizzlies despite playing sloppy at times. Don't look for the veteran Spurs to screw around here. They're looking for a sweep and are not going to let up. There is nothing the Grizzlies can do about it given their multiple injuries. They know that. They did well to make the postseason.
|
04-21-16 |
Raptors -115 v. Pacers |
Top |
101-85 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 18 m |
Show
|
Paul George can't play any better. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan can't play any worse going a combined 17-for-63 shooting from the floor for 27 percent. Yet this Eastern Conference series is tied 1-1 after the Raptors got their confidence back and halted their playoff woes with a 98-87 victory this past Monday. The Raptors had lost seven playoff games in a row prior to that win, including Game 1 at home. Toronto was under a lot of pressure in that opening home playoff game, being the higher seed and with that playoff losing streak hanging above its head. Now that the Raptors have excised their playoff demons, I'm expecting another big performance. There are reasons for this. Toronto tied for the best road record in the Eastern Conference at 24-17. The Raptors have covered eight of the last nine times at Indiana, too. Even if George maintains his elite play, the rest of the Pacers aren't good enough to keep up. Toronto has outrebounded Indiana, 96-71, and outscored the Pacers by 32 points in the paint. Center Jonas Valanciunas has been dominant stepping up to average 17.5 points and 17 rebounds per game in the series. Indiana starter center Ian Mahinmi is bothered by a lower back injury and is questionable for today's game. All-Stars Lowry and DeRozan are too good to keep shooting this bad. They're due. Defensive ace DeMarre Carroll is working his way back from a knee injury. He's improving with each outing. This will be his sixth game since returning to the lineup. It's an added bonus if he can slow down George. This is a case of laying a nickel higher juice to get the superior Raptors at a pick price with their stars overdue for a big game and their frontcourt dominance well established.
|
04-19-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks OVER 205.5 |
Top |
72-89 |
Loss |
-102 |
29 h 17 m |
Show
|
Boston and Atlanta put up a combined 203 points in the Hawks' 102-101 Game 1 victory this past Saturday. Those teams reached that figure despite missing 116 field goal attempts and going 16-for-62 from 3-point range. The Celtics shot just 23.1 percent in the first half and didn't score a single fast-break basket.
The feeling out process is over now. I see both teams shooting better especially Boston, which got its offense going in the second half scoring 67 points while putting up 15 fast-break points although shooting only 19 free throws for the entire game. Considering the pace of the opening game, there should have been at least 25 more points scored. That would push this total easily over if the teams just have a normal, or even slightly-below normal shooting game. The Hawks shot less than 39 percent from the floor during the final three quarters. The Celtics will be without Avery Bradley, their second-leading scorer behind underrated stud Isaiah Thomas. He's out with a hamstring injury. Bradley's absence, though, will hurt the Celtics more on the defensive end. He probably is the team's best defender and his being out means the Celtics will field a smaller, quicker lineup. Again, a plus for the over.
|
04-17-16 |
Pistons +11 v. Cavs |
Top |
101-106 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 46 m |
Show
|
This isn't your normal No. 1 versus No. 8 seed matchup. Cleveland has the big names - LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love - but the talent gap between these two clubs isn't as large as perceived. Detroit has the best big man on the floor, Andre Drummond, and has the athletic and tall forwards who can bother James with Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson. At point guard, Reggie Jackson has more playoff experience than Irving. The Pistons won three of their four meetings against Cleveland this season. They should be loose having last made the playoffs six seasons ago. All the pressure is on the Cavaliers.
Another big factor in Detroit's favor is the coaching matchup of Stan Van Gundy, who I consider one of the better coaches in the NBA, against inexperienced Tyronn Lue. The Cavaliers were 30-11 under David Blatt and 27-14 under Lue. The Cavaliers lost straight-up eight times when favored by seven or more points under Lue.
|
04-16-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 204.5 |
|
101-102 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 45 m |
Show
|
Atlanta is underrated defensively. The Hawks were No. 1 defensively following the All-Star break in surrendering the fewest points (96.8) per 100 possessions. They have the defense and preparation to effectively stop Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics' major offensive weapon. The Celtics are best at forcing turnovers and playing perimeter defense. Only three teams had a better 3-point defense than Boston. I'm expecting a feeling-out, typical playoff intense game here. The extra time off also is a plus for the under.
|
04-16-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks -5 |
Top |
101-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
31 h 26 m |
Show
|
Brad Stevens has gotten as much of his limited Celtics team as possible. The Celtics lack Atlanta's front-line talent - especially dealing with Al Horford and Paul Millsap - and lack the size to take advantage of the Hawks' rebounding weakness.
The Hawks aren't as good as their 60-win team of a year ago, but they are better than their 48-win total shows. No team was stronger defensively than the Hawks following the All-Star break. The Hawks allowed just 96.8 points per 100 possessions during that span with San Antonio the next closest at 99.3.
Boston is much worse on the road. The Celtics have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 away matchups.
|
04-16-16 |
Pacers v. Raptors UNDER 195 |
|
100-90 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 8 m |
Show
|
It's easy to envision offense when thinking about Toronto because of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery. But only San Antonio and Utah surrendered fewer points per game than the Raptors. Indiana is no slouch defensively, either, ranking eighth in fewest points per game. Given the increased defensive intensity of the playoffs, an early start time and the rust of being idle since Wednesday - when both teams held out their best players to rest - I see the total going under here. These teams have a history of going under, too, when playing fellow Eastern Conference opponents. The under has cashed 13 of the last 19 times the Pacers have met an Eastern Conference foe while the under is 9-3 the last 12 times the Raptors have gone against an Eastern Conference opponent. That's a combined under trend of 21-9 (70%). The Raptors have the ace defender, DeMarre Carroll, to hold Pacers superstar Paul George in check.
|
04-13-16 |
Spurs v. Mavs -4.5 |
|
96-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
The Spurs have no incentive to win here and will be holding out their main players, including LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. In fact, if the Spurs lose they get a first-round playoff matchup against the crippled Grizzlies. That would suit the Spurs fine. Dallas is playing well down the stretch with seven wins in its last eight games. If the Mavericks win they could move up to the No. 5 seed in the West so they have motivation. The Mavericks, full of prideful veterans, certainly don't want to lose at home to San Antonio's reserves.
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04-11-16 |
Kings v. Suns -6 |
Top |
105-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 6 m |
Show
|
Phoenix actually is playing well winning back-to-back road games and covering four of its last five. The Suns have double revenge motivation having been blown out in their last two games against the Kings - both in Sacramento. The spot sets up well for the Suns. The Kings are off an emotional and highly satisfying 114-112 victory this past Saturday night against Oklahoma City. That was the Kings' final home game of the season and their last game ever at Sleep Train Arena as they will be playing in a new downtown arena next season. The Kings drew great crowd support in the victory against Oklahoma City. I don't see the Kings having nearly the motivation as they go on their final road trip. All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins already has said he won't play on the road trip in order to rest his sore feet. Point guard Rajon Rondo, the Kings' second-best player, has missed missed three of the past four games and also may not play. The Kings' bench scoring is down, too, with Omri Casspi and Marco Belinelli both sidelined.
|
04-10-16 |
Hornets v. Wizards UNDER 207 |
Top |
98-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
Charlotte ranks eighth defensively. Only seven teams give up fewer points per game than the Hornets. If you discount the Cavaliers scoring 112 points on them, the Hornets are giving up an average of 93.1 points per game during their last six games. They've held their past three opponents to 97 or fewer points. The Hornets should maintain their defensive intensity for this matchup since they can still improve their playoff position. They'll also draw the Wizards likely missing star point guard John Wall. The Wizards aren't the same without Wall, who has missed the last two games with a sore knee. I would be stunned if Wall played since the Wizards were just eliminated from playoff contention. But what about the Wizards' defense? Will it be good enough to hold up their share in keeping this total under? A very early start time is a plus for the under. Neither team is used to playing at such an early hour. The Hornets have a strong recent history of going under when playing on Sunday. The over only has cashed once during Charlotte's past nine Sunday games. The Wizards had been a good defensive team ranking in the top 10 in defensive ratings each of the previous three season. However, this season they slipped. Still, they are a respectable 15th in ratings this season. The key to keeping the Hornets in check is limiting Kemba Walker. The Wizards have proven successful in this holding him to 17.4 points - four points under his season average - and 33.8 percent shooting from the floor in three games this season. Career-wise, Walker is shooting 28.8 percent against Washington. There are several pertinent under trends that line up, too. The under has cashed 75 percent of the time the past 21 times the Wizards have hosted an opponent with a losing road record. The Hornets and Wizards have gone under eight of the past 11 times they've met.
|
04-08-16 |
Clippers v. Jazz OVER 183 |
Top |
102-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
At last look the Jazz were favored by a dozen points against the Clippers. No, Karl Malone and John Stockton haven't suddenly been transported in time. Doc Rivers has said he'll be resting Clipper starters. Blake Griffin didn't even make the trip. Hence, such an out of whack point spread. There also is a huge reduction in the total. In my view, the total has been lowered way too much. The Clippers have averaged 105.5 points in their last 12 games. They have firepower on their bench and Utah could be less intense than normal defensively knowing the Clippers are sitting out starters. Utah is averaging 100 points in its last five games. The Clippers lose a lot defensively if DeAndre Jordan is one of the starters slated to sit by Rivers. The Jazz also are expected to have Alec Burks for the first time since he suffered a broken leg in December. Burks' minutes will be limited, but his presence allows the Jazz an option of playing three wings and opens up the perimeter more for Gordon Hawyard and underrated Rodney Hood.
|
04-06-16 |
Nets +15 v. Wizards |
Top |
103-121 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
We know the Nets are playing the string out. But let's be realistic about the Wizards, too. They are three games below .500 and 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East behind Detroit with five games remaining. The only consistency the Wizards have shown is an ability to be inconsistent. Lack of effort and low basketball IQ always are in play with the Wizards. This is their first home game since returning from a crucial - and unsuccessful - five-game West Coast trip. The last two times Washington played at Verizon Center it fell by 21 points to the Hawks and lost in double overtime to the Timberwolves. The loss to Minnesota likely doomed Washington to non-playoff status even before the five-game road swing. I would be surprised if Randy Wittman - someone I regard as one of the weaker head coaches in the league - is back next season for Washington. But what about the Nets? The bad news is no Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young, their two best players. Both have been shut down for the season. The oddsmaker is spooked by the Nets after seeing them get blown out by the decimated Pelicans, 106-87, two days ago. Bojan Bogdanovic, who may be Brooklyn's best player now, was rested that game and point guard Donald Sloan missed the game due to illness. Both should play against the Wizards. The loss of Lopez is somewhat mitigated in this matchup because the Wizards have gotten smaller this season. The Nets have a bunch of young, unproven players drawing big minutes now. The pluses in that are fresh legs - important this late in the season - and the ability to play hard with futures up in the air. The Nets aren't tanking either since their prize lottery picks goes to Boston. The backdoor should be wide open, too, with the Wizards playing at the Pistons on Friday in their biggest game of what's left in their season.
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04-05-16 |
Spurs v. Jazz OVER 184.5 |
Top |
88-86 |
Loss |
-101 |
12 h 18 m |
Show
|
Sure on paper, this low total seems right where it should be. San Antonio is the best defensive team in the NBA and Utah is giving up less than 89 points per game during its last 13 matchups. The reality, though, is these two teams should play much higher than this total. San Antonio has reached triple digits in five of its last six games. The Spurs have averaged 112.3 points in three games against Utah this season. Clearly, the Spurs know how to put up points against the Jazz.Yet the oddsmaker is calling for the Spurs to score around 94 points, which would be a whopping 18.3 points less than in the past three meetings. Now there's a chance the Spurs hold out starters here, or at least reduce their minutes. I'm fine with that, too, because that would ensure a looser flow plus San Antonio may have the strongest bench in the league. Utah's firepower isn't going to remind anyone of Golden State's, but the Jazz have some underrated scorers with Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood quickly coming to mind. The Jazz should be extremely fired-up, too, in a triple revenge situation and digging hard for a playoff spot. The Jazz don't play again until Friday so their starters should play big minutes. Utah is averaging 104.5 points during its last four games.
|
04-03-16 |
Blazers v. Warriors -12 |
Top |
111-136 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
After 54 consecutive regular-season home victories, the Warriors finally lost at Oracle Arena knocked off by the Celtics, 109-106, in their last game two nights ago. How will Golden State respond? I believe they respond in a big way with a blowout home victory against Portland, a team that dealt the Warriors their most lopsided loss of the season back in February. Golden State hasn't dropped back-to-back games all season. The Warriors' average winning margin following each of their losses this season is 13.4 points. They are 19-9 ATS the past 28 times after a defeat. The Warriors don't play again until Tuesday when they host the lowly Timberwolves. So a full focused effort should be there. Golden State remains highly motivated to set the single-season wins record. The Warriors still haven't secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference either. The Warriors need to win five of their last six games to break the Bulls' 1995-96 record of 72 victories in a season. Portland is one of those tough-at-home, bad-on-the-road type teams. The Trail Blazers won their seventh straight home game defeating the Heat Saturday night. But have lost eight of their past nine road matchups. They are playing without rest, which is much rougher this late in the season. Golden State leads the NBA in scoring at 115 points per game. Portland has allowed an average of 118.9 points during its past nine away contests. The Trail Blazers don't have a good history either when playing at Golden State failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 visits. The Trail Blazers need their best player, Damian Lillard, to have a big game. Lillard, however, is in a slump shooting less than 30 percent from the floor during his last five games. Without a big game from Lillard, the Trail Blazers don't have nearly enough scoring to keep up with the Warriors.
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04-02-16 |
Villanova v. Oklahoma OVER 143.5 |
Top |
95-51 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
The total on this Final Four matchup opened 150. Now look where it is at. Is the oddsmaker that far off? He shouldn't be. Not in a game of this magnitude. There are certainly key factors why the over is the right play besides what has become excellent line value now. There of course is the Buddy Hield factor. He's on fire averaging 29.3 points per game on 56.7 percent shooting from the floor during the tournament. The Sooners have other capable scorers if Villanova pays too much attention to slow downing Hield, who very well could be the best collegiate player this season. The Wildcats have balanced scoring. They can hit 3-pointers and are excellent from the free throw line, too. If you discount the Kansas game, Villanova is averaging 83 points in the tournament while Oklahoma puts up 81 points per game doing against solid defensive opponents Texas A&M, Oregon and Cal State Bakersfield. The Sooners averaged more than 80 points per game during the regular season. Only 20 teams in the nation averaged more than Oklahoma. The Wildcats scored 70 or more points in 81 percent of their games this season. Sometimes the marketplace is right. But they've overthought this matchup. The total is too low now.
|
04-01-16 |
Raptors v. Grizzlies OVER 197 |
Top |
99-95 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
Minus Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, the Grizzlies aren't the elite defensive team of past seasons. They have allowed at least 100 points in 11 of their last 14 games and an average of 104.2 points during their past four games. Memphis can score, though. If you discount an 87-point performance against San Antonio, the league's No. 1 defensive team, the Grizzlies are averaging 105 points during their past five games. Toronto has the offense to take advantage of the Grizzlies' less-than-stellar defense with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. They've helped Toronto reach triple digits in 16 of its last 17 games. The over is 15-6-1 in the Raptors' last 22 road games. The over also is 20-6-1 during the Grizzlies' past 27 home contests.
|
03-31-16 |
Celtics v. Blazers -3 |
Top |
109-116 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 54 m |
Show
|
Since Jan. 10, only Golden State and San Antonio own better home records than Portland's 16-3 mark. Not only do I believe the Trail Blazers are better than the Celtics, but they are home and in a better spot. This is Boston's third of five consecutive West Coast games. Brad Stevens has squeezed out all of Boston's talent - there just isn't that much - and the Celtics have been hitting a late season wall going 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road matchups with the lone cover coming against the 76ers. When stepping up on the road against foes with a winning home record, the Celtics are a terrible 2-12 ATS. Boston's best player is guard Isaiah Thomas, but he's trumped by Portland's star backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Not only is Portland fighting for playoff seeding - with the possibility they might get edged out of the postseason - but they have revenge for an embarrassing 23-point loss earlier this month to Boston in which Lillard and McCollum did not shoot well. Portland is averaging 114.4 points during its last 10 home games and has won five in a row at Moda Center. The Trail Blazers are rested having been home for a week. They are 9-2 ATS when playing on two days rest.
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03-30-16 |
Old Dominion v. Oakland -125 |
|
68-67 |
Loss |
-125 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
The finals of the inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament pits Old Dominion versus Oakland. It's a total contrast of styles. The Monarchs are the seventh-best defensive team in the country while the Golden Grizzlies are the top scoring team in the nation. Old Dominion has a strong backcourt, but Oakland's Kay Felder is the best player on the court and one of the finest guards in the country. It's my belief Oakland's offense will trump Old Dominion's defense. I base this on my respect for the Horizon League, which Oakland is a member, the greatness of Felder and the Golden Grizzlies being the more talented team. Trend-wise, the Golden Grizzlies rate a strong edge, too, going 23-6-1 ATS versus foes with a winning record, 25-5-1 ATS following a win and covering in their last seven non-conference games. By contrast, Old Dominion is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 non-league matchups.
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03-30-16 |
Warriors -5 v. Jazz |
Top |
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Warriors are chasing the 1995-96 Bulls for best record in a season. They are far superior to Utah. The spread is low enough to back Golden State. The line is low because Utah has won eight of its last 10, is trying to hold on to a playoff spot and the Warriors had to play last night beating Washington at home, 102-94. But those aren't strong enough reasons to not fade the Jazz. Golden State also is playing well winning 12 of its last 13, including five in a row. The Warriors have covered 58 percent of their road games this season despite frequently laying inflated numbers. The Warriors also are 16-2 when playing without rest. Golden State has owned the series winning 10 of the last 11 versus Utah, covering six of the past eight. The Warriors are 3-0 this season against the Jazz with an average winning margin of 14 points. Utah can't stay with Golden State offensively ranking 28th in scoring at less than 98 points per game, which includes a 123-75 rout of the Lakers this past Monday. That was a season high in points for the Jazz and could be another reason why this line is lower than I anticipated. The Lakers, though, are pathetic and quit in that game. So the Jazz go from the worst to the best. Utah has played only one team that would make the playoffs right now - Oklahoma City - during its last seven games. In addition to playing the Lakers during this span, the Jazz also played the Suns, Bulls, Bucks and Timberwolves. Utah has failed to cover eight of the last nine times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The evidence is just not there for the Jazz to step up against the best team in basketball that has motivated and monster matchup edges.
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03-29-16 |
Oakland -6.5 v. E Tennessee State |
Top |
104-81 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 56 m |
Show
|
I have no doubt Oakland is superior to East Tennessee State. My hesitation about backing Oakland in this Vegas 16 Tournament - the most minor of all the post-season tournaments - is how motivated will the Golden Grizzlies be after having their sights set on reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. That didn't happen because Wright State upset Oakland in the Horizon League tournament semifinals. That occurred back on March 7. The Golden Grizzlies had not played since then until dispatching Towson, 90-72, on Monday. Now Oakland gets East Tennessee State, which beat a lackluster Louisiana Tech, 88-83, on Monday. I'm convinced Oakland is past its NCAA Tournament disappointment and will be focused to win this inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament. "That's why we wanted to be in this tournament because with the heartbreak of (the Wright State) loss and the expectations of the team, the expectations that we had put on ourselves, I don't think we could have been ready to play four days later in a minor tournament," Oakland coach Greg Kampe was quoted as saying. "So that's why we wanted to be in this and now we're making this a season, and we're going to try to win a season." A motivated Oakland should destroy East Tennessee State, which hails from the Southern League. Oakland finished second to Valparaiso in the underrated Horizon League. No team scored more points per game than the Golden Grizzlies, who averaged 86.4 points and also had the seventh highest free throw percentage and 13th-best 3-point percentage in the country. East Tennessee State ranks 228th defensively giving up 73.8 points per game. Oakland features one of the best guards in the nation in Kay Felder, who led the country in assists with 9.3 a game and was the fourth-leading scorer in the nation at 24.2 points a game. The Golden Grizzlies are an impressive 22-6-1 ATS versus above .500 teams, are 24-5-1 ATS following a victory and have covered in their last six non-league games.
|
03-28-16 |
East Tennessee State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 155 |
Top |
88-83 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 41 m |
Show
|
East Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation ranking 36th and 58th, respectively. They should light up the scoreboard playing at a neutral site in Las Vegas in the inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament. Yes, this is a bogus tournament, perhaps the least prestigious of all the postseason tournaments. But teams were attracted to it because it's in Vegas and affords them extra practice time. So even those these teams haven't played a game in three weeks, I don't expect them to be rusty because of constant practice. Sources tell me to expect a loose, up-and-down game with little defense. That's what helped make these two teams attractive to tournament officials. The marketplace has tapped into this with early steam on the over. There are more sharps than squares involved in this matchup. Louisiana Tech loves to run. The Bulldogs average better than 79 points a game while surrendering more than 72 points a game. The average combined team score in the last 13 games the Bulldogs played against opponents who also play up-tempo and pushed pace is 171.6 points. That's well above this over/under. The over has cashed in 20 of Louisiana Tech's last 26 non-conference games for 77 percent. Indications are East Tennessee State will run with the Bulldogs. The Buccaneers average nearly 78 points a game while giving up an average of 73.5 points. They are a team of athletes, too. Both teams receive strong guard play.
This is a small fun tournament for these teams without the pressure of the NCAA Tournament, or even NIT. So expect a loose, fun up-and-down game that should produce more than enough points to push this total over.
|
03-28-16 |
Lakers +14 v. Jazz |
|
75-123 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 32 m |
Show
|
So when did the Utah Jazz turn into the Golden State Warriors? I haven't seen the Jazz laying this many points since the days of John Stockton and Karl Malone. The Lakers do have the second-worst record in the NBA and are playing the string out, but this spread is out of whack. It's the most points the Jazz have been favored by all season and just the second time they've been double-digit chalk. Utah is the second-lowest scoring team in the league averaging 97.5 points per game. The Lakers have scored 98 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. Prior to laying an egg at home last night to a desperate Wizards team, the Lakers had produced 105, 107 and 107 points during their previous three games. The Lakers have covered seven of the past nine times they've been double-digit 'dogs and are 6-2 ATS the last eight times they've been on the road versus a foe with a winning home mark. This isn't an optimal spot either for Utah. The Jazz just concluded a grueling five-game road trip that began on March 19 by beating Minnesota, 93-84, on Saturday night. The Jazz can't afford to look past the Lakers being just a half-game ahead of Houston for the final playoff spot in the West, but they also have to be smart about resting their key players since they have upcoming games against the Warriors, Spurs, Clippers and Mavericks. So the backdoor should remain wide open for the Lakers in case they do fall behind by a lopsided margin. However, I see the Lakers not having to rely on garbage time to cover this number. I think they'll be pumped after playing poorly at home last night. Lakers fans have a history of supporting their team in Salt Lake City and they should be out there in full force tonight to witness Kobe Bryant's final game in Utah.
|
03-27-16 |
Wizards -6.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
101-88 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 5 m |
Show
|
Absolutely must-win spot. Revenge angle. Better team. All of those fit why I like the Wizards to steamroll the Lakers. This is the start of a crucial five-game West Coast trip for the Wizards, who have lost two in a row after winning five straight to put their postseason hopes in dire straits. The Wizards have about a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to several analytical websites. A loss to the Lakers would realistically kill any playoff hopes. The Wizards do draw the Lakers, Kings and Suns - three teams playing for next season - on this trip. However, they also get the Clippers and Warriors, who are 34-0 at home. So Washington can't afford a slip up here. If playoff incentive isn't enough, the Wizards should be sky-high for this matchup remembering how the Lakers beat them, 108-104, in front of a full house at Verizon Center in early December. Kobe Bryant was instrumental in that victory scoring 31 points. I'd be shocked if Bryant even produced a decent game here dealing with a right shoulder injury and shooting less than 36 percent from the field. During their five-game win streak, the Wizards held opponents to 41.3 percent shooting and 92.4 points a game. But in their last two games, the Hawks shot 53.6 percent from the floor and the Timberwolves made 53.1 percent of their field goals. The Lakers can't get hot like that. They rank last in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Only two teams score fewer points per game than the Lakers. Making things worse for LA, is emerging point guard D'Angelo Russell isn't likely to play due to a sprained ankle. Few point guards are better than Washington's John Wall, who is going for his ninth consecutive double-double. The Lakers are one of the worst home teams in the league at 10-26, 16-20 ATS. They have failed to cover in five of their last six at Staples Center. The Wizards have covered during four of their last five road games against the Lakers.
|
03-26-16 |
Spurs v. Thunder OVER 204 |
|
92-111 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
These teams met just two weeks ago and the line was 211 1/2. The Spurs won 93-85 at home. Now the total has been adjusted downward way too much - especially considering how many key players the Spurs will be missing.
Out for the Spurs are defensive ace Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Thunder is enjoying a homestand and is rested. Their dynamic offense should be able to take advantage.
Leonard didn't play last night against the Grizzlies and Memphis - despite a no-name rotation - scored 104 points on the Spurs. San Antonio has loads of bench scoring so I see the Spurs getting their points against a mediocre Thunder defense that ranks 16th in points allowed per game.
|
03-26-16 |
Pacers -4.5 v. Nets |
|
110-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 13 m |
Show
|
Paul George is iffy, but even if it doesn't play I like the Pacers to cover this number against the Nets. Brooklyn still could be in the clouds after upsetting the Cavaliers two nights ago.
The Pacers should be focused in a dog fight for the final playoff spot and have the stronger bench.
|
03-26-16 |
Oklahoma v. Oregon -120 |
Top |
80-68 |
Loss |
-120 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
On paper, Oregon doesn't appear to be an elite team. Certainly the Ducks don't have a superstar like Oklahoma has with Buddy Hield. But this is a bad matchup for the Sooners. The Ducks are emerging from under-the-radar downgraded by some for winning a weak Pac-12. But the reality is the Ducks deserved their high tournament seed and are a unique and elite team winning 11 in a row and covering 12 of the last 16 times versus opponents with a winning record. Oregon has a short rotation, but that rotation is versatile, unselfish and high effective from a team concept. It's a tight rotation that has better big men than Oklahoma and plays the outstanding perimeter defense needed to shut down the Sooners' 3-point game. The Sooners are not a deep team either. The Ducks held Duke, St. Joe's and Holy Cross to a combined 17-of-60 from 3-point range for 28.3 percent during the tournament. Oregon's guard duo of Tyler Dorsey and Casey Benson are quick and physical defenders. They can keep Hield in check. The Ducks hold an inside edge and are quicker than Oklahoma on the perimeter. The Sooners have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games. They have struggled spread-wise when playing on Saturday, too, going 3-13 ATS.
|
03-25-16 |
Gonzaga -4 v. Syracuse |
Top |
60-63 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
These two were long shots entering the NCAA Tournament, but here they are in the Sweet 16. I believe Gonzaga is for real while Syracuse is a tier lower than the Bulldogs catching several breaks to reach this point. The Bulldogs made their move winning the West Coast Conference by beating Portland, BYU and St. Mary's by an average of 13 points per game. Then in this NCAA Tournament, the Bulldogs stretched their winning and covering streak to seven in a row beating Seton Hall by 16 points and Utah by 23. Seton Hall had entered the NCAA Tournament off upsets of Xavier and Villanova. Syracuse was lucky to have even gotten a bid to play in the tournament losing five of its last six games entering the Big Dance. The Orangemen drew Dayton, which was 4-4 and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, in the opening round. The Orange then got to meet overmatched Middle Tennessee State. which just two days earlier had posted one of the greatest upsets in NCAA Tourney history defeating Michigan State as a 16 1/2-points underdog. Neither Dayton nor Middle Tennessee State was nearly as good as Seton Hall and Utah. The Bulldogs have the height, offensive rebounding, passing skills and shooting ability to beat Syracuse's vaunted zone defense with studs Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. Sabonis. Gonzaga has scored 82 or more points in five of its last seven games while shooting close to 52 percent from the floor in its last five matchups. The Bulldogs are doing it on the defensive end, too, holding Utah to 42 percent shooting. The Utes averaged 48.8 percent from the field, 10th-best in the nation. Utah could manage just 59 points against the Bulldogs. Seton Hall scored only 52 points. I always like to back a team that shoots better from the free throw line than their opponent and that's the case here in a huge way with the Bulldogs. Gonzaga ranks 15th in the country in free throw percentage at 75.8 percent. Syracuse rates 221st at 68.6 percent.
|
03-25-16 |
Magic +10 v. Heat |
|
97-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
Early marketplace activity has been on the Heat here, which is understandable since the perception is Miami will be fired-up after an embarrassing 112-88 road loss to the Spurs. I don't buy into that perception. I think Orlando will be the more motivated team. Let's discuss the Heat first. This marks their third game in four days and end of a two-game road trip that concluded at San Antonio on Wednesday. After this matchup against a floundering foe, the Heat are idle for the weekend not playing again until Monday. Miami has failed to cover in five of its last seven home games versus foes with a winning percentage of less than .400 on the road. Orlando has a fiery coach, Scott Skiles, and off a bad loss, too. The Magic were drilled at Detroit by 16 points two nights ago. Nikola Vucevic is going to miss his 11th consecutive game with a groin strain. Power forward Ersan Ilyasova won't play either due to a sprained shoulder. But the Magic still maintain youthful talent with Victor Oladipo and point guard Elfrid Payton, who is playing his finest ball. The Magic should be up for this game, the last of a four-game road trip, against an in-state rival that has bullied them through the years. Orlando is 10-4 ATS following a defeat. The Magic also are 8-4 ATS in their past 12 games at this spread.
|
03-24-16 |
Cavs v. Nets +8 |
Top |
95-104 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
I'm going to fire now on the Nets anticipating that Tyronn Lue is going to rest some of his key Cavaliers, maybe even LeBron James, which would likely result in a lower number. The Cavaliers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and off a hard-fought 113-104 home win against Milwaukee last night with James and Kyrie Irving each logging at least 37 minutes. The Nets' roster can't compare to Cleveland's. But Brooklyn is playing had and with spirit. The Nets' young players are trying to prove themselves. Sean Kilpatrick is providing an upgrade on Donald Sloan averaging 18 points during his last five games and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is back from an ankle injury. These under-the-radar players will give a full effort - something you can't assume the Cavaliers will have in this road flat spot. Cleveland is 3-11-2 ATS its last 16 road games when going against a foe with a losing home record. The Cavs also have failed to cover the last four times following a victory. I like the Nets' roster composition and energy much more now with Joe Johnson gone. A key to picking the right spot to back the Nets is making sure center Brook Lopez is playing. Brooklyn is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Lopez has suit up. The Nets have double revenge motivation and have covered the past four times versus above .500 opponents.
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