Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
Through four games of this NBA championship series we have learned several things. The Zig Zag has been in full effect with each team alternating wins and losses and the Celtics are the better team when each team plays well. The key question is will the Celtics play well in this Game 5? There's strong evidence they will. Boston has gone 8-3 in road playoff games compared to being 6-5 at home. The Celtics also are 13-1 SU and ATS following a loss. They are 7-0 in the postseason after losing their previous game. This includes winning their final road game against the Bucks and Heat during their two previous series. The Celtics just seem to play smarter and with more urgency in these crucial road spots. Stephen Curry had a game for the ages in Game 4 scoring 43 points in a 107-97 Golden State win this past Friday. Golden State scored more than 30 percent of its points in that game off turnovers and second chance points. I don't see the Celtics making so many silly mistakes in Game 5. Doubtful, too, that Curry can produce another epic performance to match his Game 4 heroics. Curry has been carrying the Warriors. Jayson Tatum and Boston's main backcourt rotation of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are all capable of playing much better than they did in Game 4 when the four combined to shoot just 28-of-72 (39 percent) from the field. |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Stars abound in this championship series, but don't forget how strong these two defenses are. Boston finished first in three major defensive categories - fewest points allowed, defensive field goal percentage and defending against 3-pointers. Golden State placed in the top three in each of these categories. The great Stephen Curry is averaging 31.3 points in this series while making 48.6 percent of his 3-point shots. Curry, however, suffered a foot injury in the last game. So he's unlikely to be 100 percent. Big man Robert Williams played much better for the Celtics in Game 3 than he did in Game 2 with 10 rebounds, four blocked shots and three steals. Williams is getting healthier from a knee injury. That's a big plus for the Under. Note these trends, too: The Under has cashed 11 of the last 14 times the Warriors have played an above .500 foe while the Under is 15-6 the last 21 times the Celtics have met a team with a winning record.
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06-08-22 | Warriors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 40 m | Show |
Golden State knows how to win, adjust strategy and stay aggressive when it has to. The Warriors have proven that during the past seven years in the postseason. The Celtics aren't at that stage in the biggest games. I trust the Warriors' experience, their superstars and role players. I don't have as much faith in the Celtics' two superstars, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, along with the rest of their team. The Celtics also have a major weakness. They commit too many turnovers. The Warriors have excellent defenders to take advantage if and when the Celtics get careless, reckless and sloppy with the basketball. Getting back ace defender Gary Payton II is a big plus for Golden State. The Warriors scored 33 points directly off Boston's 18 turnovers in Game 2. The Warriors are due to get better performances from Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. They are a combined 18-of-54 shooting from the floor for 33 percent. If the Celtics aren't hitting their 3-pointers they are in trouble. The Warriors are the more versatile team. Boston is far from invincible at home. The Celtics lost not one but TWO home games each to the Bucks and Heat in the playoffs. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Even now it seems unreal the Warriors lost to the Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Golden State hadn't lost an opening series home game in the playoffs in six years. The Warriors entered the fourth quarter beating Boston, 92-80. Until then, the Warriors had outscored their playoff opponents by an average of 25.4 points per 100 possessions during the final period. The Warriors took their foot off the gas and the Celtics got hot in epic fashion. The result was an improbable, 120-108, Boston victory. Neither is likely to occur in this Game 2. The Celtics shot 51 percent from the floor in Game 1. They also shot 51 percent from 3-point range making 21 of 41 shots from beyond the arc. Al Horford, Derrick White and Marcus Smart combined to make 15 3-point shots. Yes, Jayson Tatum is due to shoot better than he did in Game 1. But Horford, White and Smart are not going to keep up their way over the top offensive production. Golden State shot 44 percent from the field in the opening game and 42 percent from 3-point range making 19 of 45 shots from past the arc. The Warriors - the home team - even shot one fewer free throw than the Celtics. The Warriors are sure to make adjustments. Steve Kerr isn't above trying to go box-and-one and triangle-and-two to keep the Celtics off balance. He has the versatile defenders to do this with Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Andre Iguodala. There's a good chance, too, the Warriors get back from injury, ace defender Gary Payton II. |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 198 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 44 h 40 m | Show |
After Games 4 and 5 of this Eastern Conference Finals both went Under by a combined 52 1/2 points, the Heat and Celtics went Over the total in Game 6 this past Friday with the Heat winning, 111-103. Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages scoring 47 points and the teams combined to make 52 of 56 free throws for 93 percent. Neither is likely to occur in this winner-take-all Game 7. Boston is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. Butler is banged up. He willed himself to hit 16 of 29 shots from the floor and make all 11 of his free throws. Butler was averaging a meager nine points during the previous three games. The Heat haven't had Tyler Herro, their No. 2 scorer, during the past three games. He's been out with a groin injury. Even if Herro plays, he figures to be rusty. Miami's backcourt scoring and shooting has been well below average during the series. The Celtics held the Bucks to 81 points in their Game 7 victory during their previous series. That Game 7 went Under by 15 points. Miami has the fourth-best defense in the NBA and ranked No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage. The Celtics lack consistent scorers outside of Jayson Tatum. |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 playoff deficit. Don't expect the Mavericks to become the first. Dallas staved off elimination by holding off the Warriors, 119-109, at home two days ago. The Mavericks accomplished this by sinking 20 3-point shots on their way to making 46.5 percent of their 3-pointers. I can't see Dallas coming close to repeating that hot long-range shooting, which is its key to upsetting Golden State. The Mavericks were a below average 3-point shooting team finishing 19th during the regular season. The Warriors rank No. 3 in 3-point defense holding foes to 34.8 percent from beyond the arc. That percentage shrinks to 32.8 percent when the Warriors are playing at home. The Warriors are 8-0 at home in the playoffs. They haven't lost two in a row during the postseason in facing the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. Dallas has failed to cover in five of its last six road games. Luka Doncic doesn't have enough reliable support for the Mavericks to stay close in this one. The veteran Warriors know how to finish off opponents. Steve Kerr will be focused, something it was tough for him to do after the tragic school shooting in Texas on Tuesday. Doncic is outnumbered by Golden State's many stars and role players. |
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05-25-22 | Celtics -120 v. Heat | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This Eastern Conference Final is tied 2-2, but it's my clear belief the Celtics are the superior team. That's especially the case with the Heat dealing with so many injuries. Boston has outscored Miami by 28 points in the series. The Celtics have outrebounded the Heat the past two games by an average of 15 1/2 boards. The Celtics are the top defensive team in the league. The Heat are not effective when they are being outrebounded and not hitting from beyond the arc. I don't see that pattern changing here. Being on the road shouldn't make a difference for the Celtics. Boston is 19-6-1 (76 percent) ATS in its last 26 away contests, including 5-1-1 ATS during the playoffs. |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
I don't see Boston losing a second straight game at home to Miami following its 109-103 loss to the Heat this past Saturday. A Celtics loss would not fit what has been established as a strong pattern. The Celtics are 5-0 SU and ATS following a loss with a winning margin of 19.6 points in those games. All of those victories have been by eight or more points. Jayson Tatum had a poor game against Miami on Saturday missing 11 of 14 shots from the floor and committing six turnovers. Tatum has a strong history of coming back strong, too, following an off-game. Miami lost a road game following a victory in both of its playoff series against the Hawks and 76ers. The Heat have not strung together two consecutive road victories in the postseason. Miami has lost by seven or more points in 10 of its last 11 defeats. Both teams are banged up. Obviously it's a huge bonus for the Celtics if Robert Williams can play and if Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowery P.J. Tucker and Tyler Herro can't go for Miami. But I'm anticipating the Heat will have all of their injured players on the court. It doesn't change my mind that Boston is the right side here. |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 219 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
Down 2-0 in this Western Conference Final, the Mavericks return home in must-win mode. That means a slower-paced game and tremendous defensive intensity from the Mavericks. Dallas has gone Under 72 percent of the time during its last 55 home games. The Under has cashed in five of the Mavericks' six home playoff games. Golden State shot 55 percent from the field in Game 2. The Warriors also made 14 of 28 3-point shots. I don't see Golden State shooting anywhere close to that in Dallas. The Mavericks gave up the second-fewest points in the NBA and ranked fourth in 3-point defense. Stephen Curry gets a lot of headlines. The Warriors, though, are a tremendous defensive team, too. They ranked in the top three in fewest points allowed, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.
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05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
The Mavericks have proven resilient all season both on the court and on the sidelines where Jason Kidd has made necessary adjustments. So I see the Mavericks bouncing back in this Game 2 after being embarrassed, 112-87, by the Warriors in Game 1 this past Wednesday. The Mavericks still might not have come down from their great upset Game 7 road win against the Suns this past Sunday. They will now after their deflating opening game blowout loss. Dallas missed 20 of 28 uncontested 3-point shots. Luka Doncic was held in check, scoring a postseason-low 20 points on only 6-of-18 shooting from the floor. Even with that Game 1 blowout loss, the Mavericks still have covered 11 of the last 15 times against the Warriors. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Golden State. |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
We saw it in Game 1 of the Celtics-Heat series. The Celtics were spent after taking out the Bucks in seven games and got buried by the Heat. I see the same thing happening here with the Mavericks, off their seven-game series upset win against the Suns, going against the rested Warriors on the road. Dallas lost its first two road games against the Suns by a combined 27 points. Golden State is 6-0 at home during the playoffs. The Warriors won all but one of those games by six or more points. The Warriors are 7-2-1 ATS when playing on three or more days rest. They last played five days ago. The Warriors have multiple quality defenders to slow down Luka Doncic.
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 204 | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 38 m | Show |
This Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals should be a feeling out process between two outstanding defenses. The Celtics ranked No. 1 in defensive scoring, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Bucks, the third-highest scoring team in the NBA at 115.5 points, could only average 88 points in their last two games against Boston. Boston might encounter a rusty Miami team, too, since the Heat haven't played since last Thursday. The Heat gave up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA while ranking No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage and defensive rebounding. The Heat have surrendered fewer than 100 points in six of their last eight games. They held the 76ers to an average of 87.5 points in their last two games. The Under has cashed in nine of Miami's last 11 games.
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
There's no secrets or surprises at this late Game 7 stage. The Suns are the better team. The key question, though, is are they good enough to cover this mid-range number? The answer is yes because their home court makes a huge difference. The Suns are 3-0 SU and ATS at Footprint Center against the Mavericks in this series winning by an average of 19 points. Dallas has failed to cover in 10 of its past 13 visits to Phoenix. Home teams in Game 7 NBA playoff history have won 79.1 percent of the time. This is a 134-game sampling. The Suns have a scoring and rebounding edge in the paint. They also own an edge in free throw percentage. Luka Doncic is the best player on the court, but the Suns have the next three best players in Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 209 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 38 h 28 m | Show |
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum are true superstars. But this Game 7 is going to be about defense, incredible intensity and a slow, deliberate pace. Those ingredients spell Under. The Celtics were the No. 1 defensive team during the regular season. They've held the Bucks under their season average in five of the six games during the series. Milwaukee really misses its second-best offensive player, injured Kris Middleton. The Bucks are no slouches on the defensive end either. There have been fewer than 205 combined points scored in four of the six games in the series. So it doesn't figure that all of a sudden there is going to be a major scoring outburst in Game 7. |
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05-13-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
The Bucks lead this Eastern Conference series, 3-2. But I'm convinced the Celtics are the better team. The Celtics beat the Bucks in Milwaukee in Game 4 and I see them doing it again here. Boston has outscored the Bucks in the series. The Celtics' average margin of victory is 15.5 points. The Bucks have won two of their three games in the series by a combined five points. The Celtics let a 14-point lead slip away in losing Game 6, 110-107, at home this past Wednesday. Boston, though, has proven itself on the road going 6-0-1 ATS the last seven times as a road 'dog. The Celtics also are 9-1 following a loss. Milwaukee is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. It's an added bonus for the Celtics if injured big man Robert Williams can play after missing the past two games because of knee soreness.
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05-12-22 | Suns -120 v. Mavs | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
The Suns' defense showed up in Game 5 - a 110-80 home victory against the Mavericks this past Tuesday. I don't see Phoenix's defense going away in this Game 6 with the series shifting back to Dallas. The spread is short because the Mavericks defeated the Suns in Games 3 and 4 in Dallas. But the Suns' defense is back to their elite level and Devin Booker is hot, averaging nearly 27 points in the series while making 16 of 32 shots from beyond the arc. Luka Doncic is the only Dallas player who can be relied upon. Doncic, though, is not getting enough help. The Suns are holding a huge front-court edge and have the stronger bench. Phoenix is the superior team. It's not asking too much of the Suns to just win this game - after a 30-point crushing victory in the game - before so they can move on to the Western Conference finals. |
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05-11-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
The last time the Bucks received this many points was against the Celtics on the road in Game 1 of this series. Milwaukee won that game, 101-89. There's a certain yin/yang to this series with the teams alternating victories during the first four games. The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. I see Milwaukee keeping this one closer than the point spread indicates. Jayson Tatum is a great player. But Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player on the court. The Bucks lost Game 4 by eight points because they shot horrible, especially Jrue Holiday, who was 5-of-22 from the floor. The Bucks also were an uncharacteristic 4-of-21 from inside the paint. The Celtics made 50 percent of their field goal attempts in Game 4. The Buck shot only 41 percent from the field. I don't see Holiday and Milwaukee's big men shooting nearly as poorly as they did in Game 4. |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
Zig and Zag. Ebb and flow. Whatever you want to call it, the pattern often fits during NBA playoff series. I don't see this series being any different. The Heat took advantage of home-court and Joel Embiid being out to win the first two games of the series. The 76ers returned home, got Embiid back and won the next two games to tie the series at 2-2. Now it's Miami's turn to hold serve returning home. I have confidence in Heat coach Erik Spoelstra making the right adjustments and for Miami to turn things around at home in this Game 5. The 76ers are 7-15 ATS following a victory. They have covered only two of their last 10 away games and are 1-6-1 ATS during their past eight games in Miami. The Heat have covered seven of the last eight times they've been home. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
Even if it's just one point, I'm going to back an underdog that is superior. That's the case with the Celtics in Game 4 of their series with the Bucks. Boston buried Milwaukee by 23 points in Game 2 and should have won Game 3 this past Saturday on the road. The Bucks got a break on a bad call by the official late in the game to hold off the Celtics, 103-101. The Celtics only lost by two points - and could have easily won - despite Jayson Tatum missing 15 of 19 shots from the floor, while Giannis Antetokounmpo and a number of his teammates had huge games for Milwaukee. Boston is capable of playing much better. The Bucks aren't without Khris Middleton, who is out with an MCL sprain. The Celtics are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games while the Bucks are 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine home games when taking on a foe with a winning road mark. Note, too, that since the calendar turned 2022 the Celtics are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS off a loss. So the track record is there for the Celtics to bounce back with a victory. |
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05-08-22 | Heat v. 76ers -125 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
The combination of Joel Embiid back in the lineup and the 76ers being at home makes a huge difference. That was evident in Game 3 this past Friday night when the 76ers buried the Heat, 99-79. I don't see the 76ers going from 20-point winners just two days ago to losing to Miami in this next game. Embiid's return after missing the first two games of the series lifted the 76ers. Philadelphia now has the needed confidence and spark to even this series. It's this belief that has me taking the 76ers here. |
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05-07-22 | Grizzlies +7 v. Warriors | Top | 112-142 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
While I certainly expect the Warriors to shoot better than they did in their last game, I don't believe the Grizzlies are getting enough respect on the betting line. Since an opening playoff loss to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason with the two losses each coming by one point. The Warriors have some outstanding players, but no one is playing at a higher level right now than Ja Morant. He could be in line for another huge performance with the Warriors minus a pair of their defensive standouts in injured Gary Payton II and Andre Iguodala. The Grizzlies will be without suspended Dillon Brooks, but are expected to get back big man Steven Adams. Memphis has a size advantage on Golden State. Both teams should be fresh having not played since Tuesday. All the pressure is on the Warriors returning home. Golden State has failed to cover the last four times when favored. The Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis is 16-6-1 ATS the past 23 times in an underdog role. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
The Suns have been shooting out of their minds. The result is Phoenix is 2-0 SU and ATS in this series and the combined final scores have added up 235 and 238 points. But now the series shifts to Dallas. The Zig/Zag can work on totals, too. I see that happening here in this Game 3 where the oddsmaker has now set the highest total of the series. I don't see the Suns continuing to make 57 percent of their field goals, which is their shooting percentage for the series so far. Dallas is no defensive slouch. The Mavericks ranked second in the league defensively holding foes to 104.7 points. Dallas held the Jazz to only 99 points per game in winning that first-round series. The Under has cashed 71 percent of the time during the Mavericks' last 69 home games. The Suns are strong defensively, too, ranking third in the league in defensive field goal percentage. Aside from Luka Doncic, none of the Mavericks are having a good scoring series. Besides Doncic, none of the other Dallas players can be trusted to produce strong offensive performances as the Mavericks last Phoenix's star power. |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Even by playoff standards this is a low total influenced by the absence of Joel Embiid and the Heat's 106-92 Game 1 victory. I expect both teams to score far more points now that they've had their feeling out game. The Over is 6-1 the past seven times following the 76ers failing to cover the spread during their previous game. Miami is going to get their points with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, who is an offensive force in this series with Embiid on the sidelines. The 76ers are due to shoot much better from 3-point range after making just 6-of-34 (17 percent) in Game 1. James Harden has something to prove here. He's too good of a player to be held down. He'll get his points and assists. I don't expect DeAndre Jordan to play that much either after he had a minus 22 plus/negative rating in Game 1. Jordan is a defensive center and a strong plus for the Under. The 76ers have a much quicker tempo and are not so half-court oriented without the plodding Jordan.
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Credit to the Bucks for upsetting the Celtics in Game, 101-89, this past Sunday. The Bucks, though, do not have a good spread record as road underdogs, nor do they have a good spread record against the Celtics having failed to cover against Boston during the previous seven meetings until Sunday. The Celtics had been playing great down the stretch. They were impressive against the Nets in their opening series, while the Bucks weren't really tested in taking out an overmatched, banged-up Bulls team. So I like Boston to bounce back at home knowing a loss would put them in a desperate 0-2 hole. The Bucks are 8-17 ATS the last 25 times as a road 'dog and missing Khris Middleton, their second-best player. |
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05-02-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Dallas has a tremendous track record in these situations. The Mavericks are the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. Discounting a 126-118 victory, the Mavericks held the Jazz to 95.2 points in five games while winning their series in six games against Utah. The Jazz averaged only one point fewer per game than the Suns did during the regular season. So I believe the Mavericks can hang within two possessions of Phoenix. Both teams have been idle since Thursday. They each are at full strength, too. This isn't a fade on Phoenix, but a bet-on Dallas. The Mavericks are 42-16-1 ATS during their last 59 road games against a home team with a winning percentage better than .600. Dallas has covered 10 of its last 14 road games when getting points and also is 21-8 ATS the past 29 times when playing an above .500 opponent. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors -122 v. Grizzlies | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
The Grizzlies tangled with the Timberwolves for six games before eliminating them. Minnesota blew leads of 13 or more points in all but one of those games. The Warriors have deep playoff experience. They aren't blowing any late leads like Minnesota. The Warriors also know how to win and put away opponents, unlike the Timberwolves. The Grizzlies are still on Cloud 9 after winning their first playoff series in seven years. The Warriors didn't toy with the Nuggets putting them away in five games. Stephen Curry is back to his pre-injury superstar form averaging 28 points against the Nuggets. Klay Thompson also is back to pre-injury form averaging 22 points. But it's Jordan Poole and his 21-point playoff average that makes Golden State special. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Both teams are young and talented. The Timberwolves are down 3-2 in the series, but certainly have not been outclassed. Minnesota actually should be leading the series instead of Memphis having blown leads of 13 points or more in four of the five games. This includes a last second two-point road loss to the Grizzlies this past Tuesday in Game 5. The Timberwolves are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a defeat. They've learned enough lessons and have enough confidence to bounce back at home and defeat the Grizzlies to set up a Game 7. Karl-Anthony Towns is the best big man on the floor. The Grizzlies will be down one fewer defender against Towns with Steven Adams ruled out because of safety/health protocols. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | Top | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Slowly but surely the Raptors' coaching edge of Nick Nurse against Doc Rivers is exerting itself negating the 76ers' superior talent. This is a toss-up game. I believe the safest play is Under the total. The Raptors won Game 5, 103-88. Toronto has successfully slowed down both James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Meanwhile, Joel Embiid is dealing with torn ligaments in his right thumb. Toronto has frustrated the 76ers by slowing pace. That's not going to change here. The 76ers know they have to gut out a victory. So their intensity and defensive concentration is going to be way up, too. |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
The Nuggets gained a measure of respect by beating the Warriors, 126-121, at home this past Sunday. That kept the Warriors from sweeping Denver. But now the series shifts back to Golden State where the Warriors won the first two games by an average of 18 points. I don't see the Nuggets staying within single digits of Golden State. The Warriors are peaking at the right time. They have covered eight of their last 10 games. Jordan Poole has been remarkable. No team can match the Warriors' trio of scoring from Poole, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Nuggets are without their second and third-best players, injured Jamal Murray and Michael Porter. They are 4-10 ATS the past 14 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Nuggets also have encountered little point spread success at Golden State going 2-7-1 ATS during their last 10 visits. |
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04-26-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 233 | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Maybe this total seems right since there were 237 points scored in the last game when the Timberwolves edged the Grizzlies, 119-118, this past Saturday. But two statistical anomalies stand out from that game. The two teams combined to shoot nearly 49 percent from 3-point range making 33 of 68 from beyond the arc while also combining to make 50 of 65 (77 percent) free throw attempts. The series is tied 2-2. This is pivotal Game 5. I'm not expecting either team to be so hot from 3-point range, nor to get to the free throw nearly as often as they did in Game 4. This is playoff basketball. There is going to be defensive intensity even from these two teams. The pace isn't going to be as fast it was during the regular season. There were only 199 points scored in Game 3. Ja Morant has been struggling because of lingering soreness from that knee injury that kept him out for 12 games toward the end of the regular season. |
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04-25-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
Considering that Joel Embiid may not play, or will be limited if he does, this is getting a lot of points in a do-or-die spot for the Raptors. Toronto isn't ready to roll over after staving off playoff elimination by defeating the 76ers, 110-102, in Game 4 this past Saturday. If the Raptors wouldn't have lost in overtime in Game 3 this series would be tied 2-2 instead of the 76ers leading 3-1. The Raptors never trailed in Game 3 until overtime. Embiid is dealing with a torn ligament in his right thumb. The Raptors have covered 69 percent of the time during the past 39 times they've played an above .500 opponent. The 76ers were a better road team than home team during the regular season. |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
Once again a team played great in the first game after losing a star player. That pattern fit the Suns in Game 3 of their series against the Pelicans when they won, 114-111, on the road minus superstar Devin Booker this past Friday. That gave the Suns a 2-1 series lead. Booker remains out with a hamstring injury. The Pelicans won't be feeling sorry for the Suns. This is the season for New Orleans. New Orleans center Jonas Valanciunas had an off-game and underrated forward Jaxson Hayes was ejected in the second quarter. Larry Nance Jr. also didn't play well. I expect those three to at least hold their own in this pivotal Game 4. A loss here at home by the Pelicans puts them down 3-1 in the series with the next game in Phoenix. I believe the Pelicans will make this a tough series on the Suns - and that requires a victory here. Phoenix has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been favored. The Suns were far less effective during the regular season when they were missing Booker. This time it catches up to them. |
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04-24-22 | Warriors -4 v. Nuggets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
After losing by a combined 36 points in the first two games of this series, the Nuggets came out hard at home in Game 3. Denver stepped up and Golden State regressed. Yet the Warriors still won, 118-113. The Nuggets remain without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, their second and third-best players. The Warriors are peaking. I rode the Warriors in Game 3 and I'm sticking with them to close out the series here. The Nuggets comprehend that no team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 deficit and they certainly aren't going to be the first. Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson have been unstoppable. They're averaging a combined 76 points a game in the series. Draymond Green is an elite defender and he's been a bother to Nikola Jokic, who doesn't have enough help around him with Murray and Porter unable to play. |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +3 | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have rallied to go up 2-1 in this series. But I don't see a significant talent gap between these two teams. The Timberwolves, in fact, have three of the four best players on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. The strength of Memphis is its depth. But that's not such a factor here early in the postseason. This series has a certain Zig-Zag feel to it. The Timberwolves should be the more fired-up team after letting a 26-point lead slip away in Game 3 and trying to protect home-court. That was Minnesota's playoff inexperience showing in blowing that lead. The Timberwolves should learn from that to maintain their intensity. Towns had a monster Game 1. He's been quiet the past two games. He's the best big man on the court by far and is due for another huge performance. |
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04-23-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +3.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
This line would be quite different if the Raptors didn't blow a 17-point lead and lose, 104-101, in overtime to the 76ers at home this past Wednesday. That put Toronto down 3-0 in the series. So obviously the Raptors are in must-win mode being on the verge of elimination. The 76ers never led in regulation during Game 3. It was a tough beat for those taking plus two like myself because the 76ers won by three when Joel Embiid made a 3-pointer with less than a second left. I have confidence in Nick Nurse, though. I trust his Raptors will come out and play hard while the 76ers have to be feeling very fat after stealing Game 3. There's a good chance the Raptors get star rookie Scottie Barnes back for this matchup. He's missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Embiid, meanwhile, is dealing with a sore right thumb. He's expected to play, but he was wearing a brace on his right hand and thumb during Friday's practice. He might have a torn ligament in his thumb. |
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04-22-22 | Suns -120 v. Pelicans | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
There's two ways of looking at Devin Booker's hamstring injury, an injury that will keep out of this game. The Suns lose their top scorer and emerging superstar, who was at the top of his game. But with that injury, the pressure now falls completely on the Pelicans to win this home game. I don't believe the Pelicans are ready for that against this elite foe that had the best record in the NBA. The Pelicans have failed to cover six of the last eight times they've played an above .500 opponent. The Suns have excellent backcourt depth to fill-in for Booker. Phoenix's intensity is sure to be sky-high after being upset in Game 2 and losing Booker. I don't see the youthful Pelicans matching that especially with their lack of big-game, playoff basketball experience. Chris Paul is going to control the tempo. The Suns will tighten ranks in this first game without Booker to pull out the victory. |
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04-22-22 | Bucks -135 v. Bulls | 111-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
The Bucks lost more than a game when they were upset at home by the Bulls, 114-110, this past Wednesday. Khris Middleton suffered a sprained knee injury and is out. But the Bucks know how to survive and win without key players. They did it last season when Giannis Antetokounmpo was hurt. Milwaukee is a deep team with various interchangeable parts. The Bulls got the Bucks' full attention with that victory. The Bucks will win here. Jrue Holiday is overdue for a better performance in this series and Milwaukee has a much deeper bench than Chicago. Milwaukee has covered nine of the last 11 times it has been road chalk. The Bucks almost always cover in Chicago, too, going 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against the Bulls. |
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04-21-22 | Warriors -120 v. Nuggets | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
Bad energy, low morale and injuries to their second and third-best players. That's what the out-gunned Nuggets are going through. The Warriors, on the other hand, are peaking at just the right time with Jordan Poole looking like a superstar alongside fellow superstar Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The results have been Golden State blowout victories by 16 and 20 points in the first two games of this series. Yeah, this Game 3 figures to be closer with the Nuggets coming home. But asking the Nuggets to end their six-game playoff losing streak, which began last season, is asking too much. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. aren't suddenly going to appear and change the Nuggets' fortunates. Nikola Jokic is great, but he can't do it alone. And now the Warriors figure to have ace defender Andre Iguodala back for this matchup after he missed Game 2. The Warriors are rolling. I don't expect them to lose here so laying a short money line price makes sense. |
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04-20-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
Even though they are down 2-0 in their series against the 76ers, I see no panic from the Raptors and their coach, Nick Nurse. I like Nurse a lot. Enough to feel confident backing the Raptors to beat the 76ers in Game 3 now that they are back in Toronto after losing the first two games in Philadelphia. Even though the Raptors are more banged-up than the 76ers, I don't see a talent gap between the two teams. Toronto actually outscored the 76ers by nine points during the fourth quarter of Game 2. Nurse is known for making shrewd adjustments and the Raptors should be super intense while the 76ers can't help but subconsciously let up. The 76ers failed to cover in their last five regular season road games. They also are 1-5 ATS during their last six visits to Toronto. |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Still fresh from their play-in game victory against the Clippers, the Timberwolves ambushed the rusty Grizzlies in Game 1. Memphis hadn't played in six days before losing, 130-117, this past Saturday to Minnesota. I don't expect the Grizzlies to go down 0-2 in the series losing both games at home. The Timberwolves are much improved. But the Grizzlies did win the second-most games in the NBA. They are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games even with that first game loss. Minnesota was 2-8 ATS the past 10 times as a road 'dog before surprising Memphis. The Timberwolves pulled down 11 more rebounds and were more physical than the Grizzlies in Game 1. Memphis isn't going to be intimidated at home. Grizzlies big man Steven Adams is a much better defender than he showed in Game 1. I see a physical, intense all-out effort from the Grizzlies to even this series while the Timberwolves, in the playoffs for only the second time in the last 18 years, are fat and happy having accomplished getting a split in Memphis. |
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04-16-22 | Raptors +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 111-131 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
The 76ers finished ahead of the Raptors during the regular season, but I'm far from convinced they are the superior team. Toronto went 3-1 against the 76ers during the regular season covering all four games. The latest was on April 7 in Toronto. Despite missing OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet, the Raptors defeated the 76ers, 119-114. VanVleet is Toronto's second-leading scorer and top assists guy. Anunoby is fourth in scoring on the Raptors. Toronto is 24-17 on the road. That's the same record as the 76ers' home mark. The Raptors have covered seven of their last nine road games and are 26-9 (74 percent) ATS the last 35 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The Raptors enter this matchup 8-1 excluding a meaningless regular-season finale loss to the Knicks. Both teams haven't played in six days. I give the Raptors a coaching edge with Nick Nurse against Doc Rivers.
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04-15-22 | Hawks -130 v. Cavs | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
These teams have gone the opposite way. Atlanta is 26-14 in its last 40 games. The Cavaliers are 9-18 in their last 27 games, including 3-9 SU and ATS in their last dozen games. I don't expect a sudden reversal of fortunes. The Hawks have covered seven of their last nine. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times as favorites. Atlanta blew out Charlotte by 29 points in its opening postseason game this past Wednesday. The Cavaliers lost to the Nets by seven points in its opening play-in game. The Hawks were strong as a playoff road team last season winning and covering 60 percent of their away matchups, including winning and covering their road opener in each of their series against the Knicks, 76ers and Bucks. Atlanta and Cleveland have played four times this season. The Hawks have won and covered during the past three meetings with their average victory margin being 11.6 points. |
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04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks UNDER 236 | 103-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
We saw with last night's play-in game that the defensive intensity is increased during the postseason when the Clippers and Timberwolves went Under by 18 points. Yes, these are two different teams. But the same reasoning holds true especially with a large total like this. The Hawks are spearheaded by Trae Young. The Hornets have the tall guards to bother him, especially LaMelo Ball. Young managed only nine points when the teams last met on March 16. The Hornets won that contest, 116-106. That game went Under by 18 points. The Under cashed in three of the team's four meetings this season. Going back to last season, the Under has cashed in six of the last seven games in the series. The Hornets have been a strong Under team when taking points. The Under is 21-7 the past 28 times Charlotte has been a 'dog. |
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04-12-22 | Clippers +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
I like the way the Clippers are playing. LA has won five in a row beating the Bucks and Suns during this span. Paul George has looked great in five games since returning from a 3-month elbow injury. Norman Powell has looked good, too, this month after missing March with a foot injury. The Clippers have that needed postseason experience reaching the Western Conference Finals last season. Minnesota last competed in the postseason four years ago. The Clippers have held their last four opponents to 98 points a game. The Timberwolves have allowed 128 points to their last seven foes. LA is 3-1 against Minnesota this season winning those games by an average of more than 19 points. |
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04-09-22 | Kings v. Clippers OVER 225.5 | Top | 98-117 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
I'm expecting a loose game devoid of defense with the Kings playing the string out and the Clippers locked into the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs. The Clippers are averaging 127.2 points per game during their last five games. Paul George is rounding into shape averaging 22.5 points in four games since returning from an elbow injury. The Kings ranked 29th defensively giving up 115.8 points a game. They've been even worse during their past 10 games allowing 119.7 points during this span. The Clippers have surrendered at least 115 points in six of their last eight games. |
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04-08-22 | Hornets v. Bulls -130 | 133-117 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Both teams are in the postseason. But the Bulls should be playing with intensity as this is a get right game for them in their regular season home finale. Chicago has dropped three in a row. Those losses, however, occurred to three Eastern Conference powers - the Heat, Bucks and Celtics. Now the Bulls are dropping way down in class. Chicago has covered in its past five meetings against Charlotte, including both times this season. |
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04-08-22 | Cavs +8.5 v. Nets | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Playoff seedings are at stake here. So the Cavaliers are going to be up for this game. That's enough reason for me to stay on the fade-the-Nets-as-chalk bandwagon. How bad have the Nets been against the spread whey laying points at home? They are 1-20 ATS the last 21 as home favorites! If taking more than eight points, the Cavaliers would have covered 73 percent of their last 22 games. |
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04-07-22 | Blazers +17 v. Pelicans | 94-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
I understand it's difficult to get behind the decimated Trail Blazers, losers of 18 of their last 20 games, even with a point spread in this range. But the Pelicans are not some elite team and this isn't a kill spot for them. New Orleans has clinched a spot in the play-in tournament. The Pelicans will meet the Spurs in that game. The Pelicans also haven't been at home since March 27. They just concluded a four-game West Coast trip and then go right back on the road to play the Grizzlies in Memphis on Saturday. So focus could be an issue for them. The Pelicans also could be minus their best big man as Jonas Valanciunas is questionable with an ankle injury.
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04-06-22 | Thunder +17.5 v. Jazz | 101-137 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
We've been down this road before with Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been tremendous this season on the road and as an underdog. The pattern fits again in this matchup especially with the Jazz slipping past the Grizzlies, 121-115 in overtime, last night. That victory clinched a playoff spot in the top six for Utah. The Thunder are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 away contests. They have covered eight of the last 10 times when getting points. Utah is 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times when playing without rest. The Jazz host the Suns Friday. So the backdoor should swing open if Utah were to build a big early lead.
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04-06-22 | Nets -6 v. Knicks | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The Nets have been far better on the road this season and they'll be taking the Knicks seriously in this matchup. Brooklyn is battling for playoff positioning. The Knicks are out of playoff contention and don't have their best player, injured Julius Randle. The last time the Knicks played an opponent this good was six games ago. The Nets have defeated the Knicks during the past six times. Brooklyn didn't play well in a 118-105 home win against the Rockets last night. But Kyrie Irving did break out of his shooting slump. I'm expecting the Nets to play better against New York. The Nets are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road contests, while the Knicks have only covered two of their last 12 home games. |
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04-06-22 | Mavs v. Pistons +8.5 | Top | 131-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
The Mavericks are coming off a highly-satisfying, 118-112, road upset win against the Bucks. So a letdown could be in store. The Mavericks encounter the hottest point spread team in the league - the Pistons. Detroit is an amazing 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games. The Pistons are 8-1 ATS as a home 'dog and 10-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. So have to ride the Pistons while they are this point spread-hot.
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04-05-22 | Bucks -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The Bucks dominate the Bulls when playing in Chicago covering 10 of the last 11 times. Look for that trend to hold up in this meeting. Milwaukee is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost two in a row, both at home. The Bucks are at full strength and are at their best laying points on the road covering seven of the past nine times as road chalk. The Bulls are struggling defensively and are only 1-10 ATS the past 11 times when taking on foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Bulls have allowed an average of 128.5 points during their last two games. Milwaukee has beaten the Bulls in all three games this season, including 126-98 on March 22 during the past meeting. |
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04-05-22 | Rockets +18 v. Nets | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Not even against the Rockets can the Nets get away with trying to cover this large of a spread. Brooklyn just isn't playing well right now. The Nets are 11-22 in their last 33 games. This includes going just 8-7 since superstar Kevin Durant returned from a knee injury. The Nets are 17-21 at home. They are a dreadful 4-23 ATS as a home favorite. Kyrie Irving can play in home games now, but he's in a shooting slump making just 26.6 percent of his last 105 shots from the floor during the past five games. The Rockets have been competitive lately going 2-4. Their four losses during this span have come by a combined 18 points for an average loss of six points. |
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04-05-22 | Cavs v. Magic +8.5 | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
Realistically, the Cavaliers really don't have much to play for as they just about are locked in as one of the play-in tournament teams in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland isn't playing well with six losses in its last eight games. The Cavaliers continue to be missing their two best big men and keys to their defense with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley both out. So taking this many points with the home 'dog Magic makes sense. Orlando is on a six-game losing skid, but is a more respectable 9-10 ATS in its last 19 games. The Magic should be counted on to provide an all-out effort after being embarrassed by 30 points by the Knicks this past Sunday. The Magic are coached by Jamahl Mosley, who is a former Cavaliers assistant. Cleveland has failed to cover the past four times when favored and is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against Orlando. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas. No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed. Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter. North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke. Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise. |
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04-03-22 | Pelicans +2.5 v. Clippers | 100-119 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
The Clippers are well satisfied coming off a franchise regular season scoring record in a 153-119 victory against the Bucks, who rested their three best players. That win clinched a playoff spot for the Clippers. The Pelicans are 3 1/2 games out of the eighth playoff spot. New Orleans has really come on especially on the road covering 12 of its last 15 away contests. CJ McCollum has been a great and underrated addition to the Pelicans.
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04-03-22 | Mavs v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
After clinching a playoff spot, the Mavericks met the Wizards this past Friday. It wasn't pretty. The Wizards buried the Mavericks, 135-103. Expect a much more focused and far stronger defensive effort from the Mavericks, who give up the second-fewest points in the NBA at 104.7 and rank fourth in 3-point defense. This is what Dallas coach Jason Kidd said after the embarrassing loss to the Wizards: ''We have to get back to the details of our defense, and that's what we're built on. When you clinch, there's a time to relax, and I think we relaxed. We didn't play very well. Luka (Doncic) scored the ball, but again defensively, we got to get back to the way things were.'' The Bucks sat out four of their top defenders in their last game. That was this past Friday. The Bucks paid the price losing, 153-119, to the Clippers. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez are all expected to return for this matchup. The Bucks should be playing with a huge chip on their shoulder after their humiliating 34-point loss to the Clippers. Two things to note, too. The Mavericks have been playing at the second-slowest pace during the last 10 games. This also is an early start time, another plus for the Under. |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Duke | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 50 h 29 m | Show | |
Duke often is overvalued. I find that to be the case once again here. The Tar Heels knocked off Duke, 94-81, as 11-point road 'dogs on March 5 in Mike Krzyzewski's final home game. So I'm not buying into the Tar Heels being an underdog in New Orleans on a neutral court. If Duke were laying four or more points to North Carolina during the team's past 10 meetings, the Blue Devils would be 2-8 ATS. North Carolina has come on strong, winning 16 of its last 19 games. The Tar Heels have defeated many elite foes during this span, not just Duke. Among North Carolina's victories were wins against UCLA, Baylor, Virginia, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Marquette and surprising St. Peter's. Duke ranks 13th in the nation in field goal percentage at 48.9 percent. Yet Duke has shot far better during its four NCAA Tournament games never dipping below 52 percent from the floor. The Blue Devils are shooting a combined 53.8 percent from the floor during their last four games. I can't see Duke sustaining that sizzling shooting especially given the tough shooting environment in the spacious New Orleans Superdome. The Tar Heels have stepped up their defense, too, holding their last two opponents - St. Peter's and UCLA - to a combined average of 57.5 points. |
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04-02-22 | Nets -130 v. Hawks | 115-122 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Nets have proven much stronger on the road than at home this season. I see the Nets bouncing back after a tough, 120-119, overtime home loss to the Bucks this past Thursday. Brooklyn is 23-16 away from home, including 8-2-1 ATS during its past 11 road games. The Nets' last road game was a 15-point victory against the Heat on March 26. The Hawks are off a blowout victory against the Cavaliers. Trae Young suffered a right groin strain in that game, although he finished the contest and played well. Still, if he's not at 100 percent it's an extra bonus. The Hawks are 4-12 ATS following a victory. The Nets have defeated the Hawks in four of the last five meetings, including both games this season. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 134 | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 50 m | Show |
Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last nine neutral site games. Look for that trend to continue with this game set for the spacious Louisiana Superdome. The Wildcats like to play slow. That strategy certainly isn't going to change facing Kansas, a top-30 scoring team, and with the Wildcats minus their second-leading scorer, Justin Moore. He suffered an Achilles tear in the Wildcats' 50-44 victory against Houston in Villanova's last game on March 26. Kansas has held seven of its last eight foes to 65 or fewer points. The Under has cashed in seven of the Jayhawks' last 10 games. |
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04-01-22 | Raptors v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 102-89 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Toronto needs to be careful here. The Raptors are fat and happy having just concluded a 4-0 homestand with the last two games being a blowout of the Timberwolves and a huge overtime win against the Celtics. Now the Raptors take to the road to face the lowly Magic. The last time the Raptors were on the road they lost by 14 points to the Bulls on March 21. Orlando has covered six of the last eight times it has been a 'dog. Toronto is 4-10 ATS the past 14 times playing below .400 opponents. Both meetings this season have been close. The Raptors edged the Magic, 110-109, back in late October and Orlando defeated the Raptors, 103-97, on March 4. |
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03-31-22 | Clippers v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 130-135 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
Paul George played for the first time in three-plus months against the Jazz this past Tuesday helping the Clippers defeat Utah. LA rallied from 25 points to win, 121-115. George looked great in scoring 34 points in 31 minutes. Three things about that, though. The game was played in LA. The Clippers had lost five in a row before that victory and George still may not have his full conditioning. The Clippers are 1-5 in their last six road games, 2-4 ATS, with their lone victory during this span coming against the lowly Pistons by four points. The Clippers lost by 12 points to the Nuggets and by 29 to the Jazz during their past two away contests. If George isn't at peak efficiency - and it's hard to imagine he would be playing in just his second game back - the Bulls would have the three best players on the court in DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Chicago is 26-10 at home. The Bulls are 23-7 ATS the past 30 times as a home favorite. They beat the Raptors by 14 points and Cavaliers by 10 during their last two home contests. The Clippers are 16-23 on the road. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when facing an above .500 team. |
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03-30-22 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Given the star power on these respective teams, it's not surprising the oddsmaker has put out a large total. Truth be told, though, these are a pair of top-eight defensive clubs with a history of going Under in this series as the low side has cashed 10 of the past 12 times. The Suns could be reducing minutes for their starters as they've already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Phoenix just held the 76ers to 104 points three days ago in its last game. That was five points below the 76ers' season average. Golden State managed only 95 points in its last game, two days ago against the Grizzlies. Stephen Curry remains out, but the Warriors have back Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. These are pluses for the Under, though. I'd rate Green and Iguodala as the Warriors' two best defensive players.
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03-30-22 | Hawks v. Thunder +12.5 | 136-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
The Hawks aren't some elite team that can cover margins like this. In fact, their point spread record is terrible given these circumstances while the Thunder have a tremendous ATS mark. Atlanta is 2-12 ATS following a victory. The Hawks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine road games. Twice in the last three weeks the Hawks have been favored by double-digits. They didn't cover either time. The Hawks are not playing well defensively giving up 116.5 points during their last five games. Oklahoma City has the second-best point spread mark in the NBA at 46-25-4 for 65 percent. The Thunder have multiple injuries, but can be counted on to play hard. The Hawks host the Cavaliers on Thursday and then host the Nets on Saturday. Those are more challenging games for the Hawks. So the backdoor could swing open for the Thunder if the Hawks were to build a big lead.
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03-29-22 | Washington State v. Texas A&M UNDER 136 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 114 h 9 m | Show |
The NIT has reached its semifinals. That means the four remaining teams play at Madison Square Garden. That's a huge plus for the Under as college teams unfamiliar with the Garden's large arena and difficult shooting background have trouble scoring. So I'm expecting a huge defensive matchup between Washington State and Texas A&M. Washington State ranks 64th defensively giving up 65.3 points. The Cougars have held four of their last five opponents to 63 or fewer points. Texas A&M holds foes to an average of 66.7 points. The Aggies have given up an average of 60.8 points in their last six games. Both teams are below average in field goal percentage. Washington State ranks 321st in field goal shooting. Texas A&M ranks 241st in 3-point accuracy and 268th in free throw percentage. |
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03-29-22 | Pistons +14 v. Nets | 123-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
It just may be the best angle going in the NBA: The Detroit Pistons are 15-1 ATS the past 16 times as an underdog for 94 percent! The Nets are a terrible home favorite covering only five of the past 28 times in that role for 18 percent. This is enough for me to ride the Pistons and fade the Nets.
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03-28-22 | Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 223 | 134-131 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
This is the third meeting between the two teams this season. There were 179 points scored the first time and 189 points scored during the second matchup. I don't expect many points either this time around with each team devoid of their best scorers. Oklahoma City has been missing its leading scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He could be shut down for the season due to an ankle injury. Portland is down its top three scorers with Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jusef Nurikic all out. The Trail Blazers just lost forward Trendon Watford to a knee injury this past Friday. Watford had been averaging 15.4 points this month. The Trail Blazers are averaging only 100 points during their last three games. |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah +8 v. Fresno State | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
I understand why Fresno State is such a large favorite here. The Bulldogs are an elite defensive team, playing at home and going against a Big Sky Conference opponent. But that doesn't mean this point spread is right. Southern Utah is on a roll having fun and enjoying one of its finest seasons with a 23-11 mark. The Thunderbirds have been sizzling in reaching the semifinals of The Basketball Classic by averaging 80.6 points in posting victories against Kent State, UTEP and Portland. The Thunderbirds are 89-for-161 from the floor in the tournament shooting 55.2 percent from the field. The Thunderbirds averaged 78.8 points during the regular season, 26th-best in the country and 13 points more per game than Fresno State. The Bulldogs are one of the top defensive teams in the country. But they haven't demonstrated that during the tournament giving up 71 and 74 points during their last two games after holding foes to an average of 58.4 points entering this tournament. Fresno State hasn't been playing that well going 5-7 in its last 12 games. The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS the past six times as a home favorite and 2-9 ATS the last 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent.
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03-28-22 | Magic +9.5 v. Cavs | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
The Magic are proving feisty in this role covering five of the last six times they've been an underdog. Cleveland's defense has slipped a great deal since big man Jarrett Allen was lost due to injury. Bottom line here is that the Cavaliers aren't playing well enough to lay this large of a number. They are 3-6 SU in their last nine games. It has been 20 games since the Cavaliers last won a game by more than nine points.
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03-27-22 | Hornets +7 v. Nets | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
This handicap is simple. The Hornets are playing well and have been huge money-makers on the road. The Nets are off a big Saturday night road victory against the Heat. They are at their point spread worst as a home favorite. Charlotte is 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. Among the Hornets' victories during this span are wins against the Jazz, Mavericks and Hawks. Charlotte is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road contests. Brooklyn has performed much better away from home. The Nets are 16-19 at home. The Hornets have a better road mark at 18-18 than Brooklyn does at home. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense. The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though. Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament. Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average. Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. |
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03-26-22 | Kings v. Magic -130 | 114-110 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
I don't usually back the Magic in a favorite's role, but this spot and situation set up well for Orlando. The Kings are off a dramatic road victory against the Pacers, 110-109, on a last-second put-back basket. Despite that win, Sacramento is 4-12 in its last 16 games. The Kings are without their two best players as both De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are injured. The Magic had been playing well with consecutive home victories against the Thunder and Warriors before getting crushed, 118-102, on the road against Oklahoma City three days ago. Orlando was minus its leading rebounder and third-leading scorer, Wendell Carter Jr., in that game. There's a good chance Carter plays here. But even if he doesn't I like Orlando to defeat Sacramento. |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA -135 | 73-66 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm not falling for North Carolina's status as a No. 8 seed. That low seed has turned out to be a joke with the way the Tar Heels have played. The key is can North Carolina sustain its high level? I don't see that. Now that Jaime Jaquez has been declared fit to play Friday after suffering an ankle injury, I'm going with the Bruins. UCLA has the deep NCAA Tourney experience, roster depth and ability to limit turnovers that can hurt North Carolina. I see the Bruins controlling tempo, which is huge. The Bruins lost in overtime to Gonzaga in the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last year. The Bruins' key players from that game are all back. Jaquez has been playing his best ball down the stretch averaging 21 points during his last seven games. The Bruins are 7-1 ATS during their last eight NCAA Tournament games. |
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03-25-22 | Knicks v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
This is my NBA March Game of the Month. The 31-42 Knicks are back to being a bottom-feeder this season. The only way they can win is to catch an opponent in a letdown spot. That's what the Knicks did on Wednesday upsetting the Hornets. But that's not the situation in this matchup. The Heat are in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. They are especially angry after falling to the short-handed Warriors, 118-104, at home this past Wednesday. Miami is going to be up for this matchup. The Heat are healthy. The Knicks are not. New York has been without Julius Randle, its best player, and center Mitchell Robinson. Randle, who leads the Knicks in scoring, rebounding and assists, has a quad injury. The Knicks are not in a hurry to rush him back into the lineup with their season down the drain. If Randle remains out, the Heat would field the three best players on the court in Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowery. It's an added bonus if Tyler Herro returns to Miami's lineup. The Heat have owned the Knicks recently covering eight of the past 10 meetings. Miami has defeated New York five consecutive times, including twice this season by a combined 29 points. |
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03-25-22 | Jazz -3.5 v. Hornets | 101-107 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
There's too much of a class difference here. Utah is a top-five Western Conference club. The Hornets are a mediocre .500 type Eastern Conference team. I don't see the Hornets staying close in this matchup. Utah should be fired-up after an embarrassing, 125-97, setback to the Celtics in Boston two days ago. The Celtics have been sizzling. The Hornets are not in that class and usually acquit themselves poorly at home where they are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games. The Jazz took care of the Hornets, 112-02, at home on Dec. 20 in the first meeting this season. The Hornets have a poor history when stepping up against steep competition going 7-18-2 ATS versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600.
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03-24-22 | Houston v. Arizona -124 | Top | 72-60 | Loss | -124 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
Arizona has looked less than stellar in beating Wright State and gritty TCU in overtime during its first two NCAA Tournament games. That's putting it kindly. The Wildcats made only five of 27 3-point shots against the Horned Frogs. But the Wildcats survived. Now, four days after getting past TCU, I see a regrouped Arizona playing much better. Arizona can beat any team in the nation if it plays its ''A'' game. The Wildcats are due for that. Arizona ranks No. 3 in the nation in points per game at 84.7 and is fifth in field goal percentage. The Wildcats have the second-tallest frontcourt in the country. Houston isn't nearly that explosive, nor has the height and overall wingspan to defeat the Wildcats. The Cougars also have a severe weakness - free throw shooting. They rank 334th in free throw accuracy at 66.3 percent. Not to take anything away from Houston's impressive 68-53 second-round tournament victory against Illinois, but several things need to be pointed out. The Big Ten Conference did indeed turn out to be vastly overrated. Only Purdue and Michigan made it to the Sweet 16. The Cougars were successful in beating the Illini because they could get away with double and triple-teaming Illinois superstar big man Kofi Cockburn. That strategy won't work against Arizona because the Wildcats have several excellent big men plus a better perimeter game. Houston hasn't encountered a guard the likes of Arizona's Bennedict Mathurin. This is the spot where Arizona steps up and proves just how good it is. |
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03-24-22 | Pacers +12.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
You can't blame the Grizzlies for being fat and happy. They've won six of their last seven and just defeated the Nets, 132-120, without their best player, Ja Morant, last night. You can't blame the Grizzlies either if they are overconfident for this game against the 25-48 Pacers. The teams just met nine days ago and the Grizzlies buried the Pacers, 135-102, shooting 51 percent from the floor. Memphis was a 6 1/2-point road favorite in that game. Now the line is nearly doubled. I don't believe that is justified. The Pacers not only have short revenge, but they should be fired up after having their two-game win streak end in heartbreaking fashion with a one-point home loss to the Kings last night. The Kings pulled the game out on a tip-in with less than one second left. Indiana is 15-5 ATS the past 20 times when playing on zero rest. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS following a double-digit victory and probably will be missing Morant again. Memphis also has a far bigger matchup on deck hosting the Bucks Saturday. |
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03-23-22 | Youngstown State +13.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Often the best line value comes in the minor postseason basketball tournaments rather than the NCAA Tournament. That's the case in this quarterfinal matchup in The Basketball Classic. Fresno State should not be this large of a favorite. The Bulldogs are just 4-7 in their last 11 games. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times as home chalk and 2-8 ATS the last 10 times facing an above .500 foe. Youngstown State is a prideful and competitive team bidding to win its 20th game of the season. That would tie the Penguins' school record for most Division I victories in a season matching their 1997-98 team. The Penguins average seven points more per game than the Bulldogs. Expect a competitive match up here and not a blowout.
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03-23-22 | Magic v. Thunder +2.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
Revenge and a great situation line up well for Oklahoma City. Just three days ago, Orlando beat the Thunder, 90-85, at home. The Thunder hung in despite shooting just 33 percent from the floor, getting six fewer free throws than Orlando while missing star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Now the Thunder get the Magic at home in this short revenge spot. The Magic are in a rare and monster letdown spot having upset the Warriors, 94-90, Tuesday night at home. Orlando has lost 27 of its 37 road games this season. The Magic are 1-6 ATS the last seven times facing Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 28-14-4 ATS (67%) in their last 46 games all as an underdog. The Thunder also is 22-9-1 (71%) the past 32 times when going against a sub .500 opponent. |
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03-23-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
The won/lost record shows the Pistons losing six of their last seven games. A betting reality, though, is the Pistons have been one of the hottest point spread teams covering 13 of their last 16 games, including going 5-1 ATS as a home 'dog. One of Detroit's rare non-covers during this time frame occurred in its last game, an embarrassing, 119-115, loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago to open their homestand. Star rookie Cade Cunningham committed a season-high nine turnovers in that loss. Cunningham and his young teammates should be motivated following that bad performance against Portland. They draw the Hawks at an opportune time. Atlanta is off a highly-satisfying, emotional, 117-111, win against the Knicks last night. This was at Madison Square Garden. The setting and mood was playoff-like. Here's the reality about the Hawks, though. They are 1-7 ATS the past eight times as favorites. They were 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS during their last six road contests prior to defeating the Knicks. Oh, yes, Atlanta is 1-11 ATS following a victory. The Hawks also carry a fatigue factor in action for the fourth time in six days. |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt +4 v. Xavier | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
Even with Xavier the host team in this NIT quarterfinal matchup, I still believe the wrong team is favored. Xavier has underachieved all season and a victory against Florida in its last game doesn't change that. Unlike Xavier, Vanderbilt improved as the season went on. The Commodores buried Georgia and knocked off Alabama in the SEC Conference Tournament before falling to Kentucky in a close game. Vanderbilt has stayed hot defeating Belmont and Dayton as short favorites in its first two NIT games. The Musketeers have had a different trajectory this season. They finished the regular season going 2-8 and then lost to Butler in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers didn't come close to covering against Cleveland State in their first-round NIT matchup before rolling past Florida. Xavier might have had some extra incentive against the Gators because it was the first game for Jonas Hayes as interim head coach after Travis Steele resigned following the Cleveland State game after four years of heading Xavier's program. The timing of this move was curious and surprising. It could have a negative effect in this game for Xavier. I'm always more comfortable when the team I back has the best player on the court. Vanderbilt has that with Scottie Pippin Jr. The Commodores also have a good center in Liam Robbins. These teams actually met this season. That was back in October during a scrimmage, which Vanderbilt won. I don't put a whole lot of stock in that. But there are other indications that point to Vanderbilt faring well here. The Commodores are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. They also are 10-2 ATS the past dozen times when facing above .500 competition. On the flip side, Xavier is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-9 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Musketeers have also been awful as a favorite failing to cover 11 of the last 15 times in that role.
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03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs -3 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
It's not a fluke the Timberwolves are 42-30. They are a much improved team with a lot of young talent. But I want the Mavericks going for me in this matchup. Dallas is trying to prevent its first three-game losing streak in more than three months following consecutive losses to the 76ers and Hornets. The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS following a loss. Minnesota is off a huge 138-119 home victory against the defending world champion Bucks. The Timberwolves defeated the Mavericks in the first meeting this season, 111-105, at home on Dec. 19. The Mavericks beat the Timberwolves, 114-102, in Dallas two days later. It was the eighth time in their last 11 visits to Dallas that the Timberwolves failed to cover. Dallas is 23-12 at home this season. The Timberwolves are 18-18 on the road. The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS the past six times they've been a road 'dog. The Timberwolves will host the Mavericks on Friday. Dallas has the history, motivation and situation to hold court today by covering this small number. |
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03-21-22 | Wizards v. Rockets OVER 233 | 97-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
The Rockets are 3-22 in their last 25 games and showing no interest in playing defense. Houston has allowed an average of 120.3 points in regulation during its last 10 games. Washington is the sixth-most accurate field goal shooting team in the NBA. The Rockets rank last in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. I don't expect the Rockets to suddenly get intense on defense after giving up 122 points to the Grizzlies in a 24-point loss on Sunday. The Over is 16-5 the past 21 times the Rockets have played on zero rest. The Wizards are 1-6 in their last seven games. They aren't playing defense either. Washington has given up an average of 122 points in its last eight games discounting a 100-97 loss to the Knicks. The Over has cashed in nine of the Wizards' last 10 games. |
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03-21-22 | Northern Colorado +1.5 v. North Carolina-Asheville | 87-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm surprised this line is where it is. My power ratings have Northern Colorado as the much better team. So I'll be on the Bears in this CBI Tournament quarterback matchup. Northern Colorado averages 78.7 points a game, which ranks 27th in the country. The Bears are the 11th most accurate 3-point shooting team in the nation. Asheville is strong defensively against the 3-pointer, but its offense can't match the Bears and it gives up a lot of two-pointers. Senior guard Daylen Kountz is the best player on the court giving Northern Colorado that edge. |
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03-20-22 | TCU v. Arizona -9.5 | 80-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
I see a blowout here. Arizona didn't have to show much in its 87-70 first-round tournament win against Wright State. The Wildcats are too explosive for TCU. Arizona has won seven in a row. The Wildcats rank No. 3 in the country in scoring at 84.7 points a game. That's 16 more points per game than TCU. The Horned Frogs were impressive against Seton Hall. Impressive enough to garner Arizona's full attention and commitment. Look for the Wildcats to win by double-digits.
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03-20-22 | Texas +3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
Texas beat Kansas and Tennessee this season. The Longhorns certainly are capable of defeating Purdue. The key is the Longhorns' ninth-ranked defense and the tremendous coaching of Chris Beard. Purdue coach Matt Painter has gone against Beard twice in the NCAA Tournament and lost both times. Beard bested Painter when he was at Arkansas Little Rock and at Texas Tech in a Sweet 16 victory against Purdue in 2018. Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA Tourney title game 2019 and Elite Eight in 2018. I trust Beard to neutralize 7-foot-4 Zach Edey inside and fluster Jaden Ivey forcing him to do too much. On the offensive end, Beard's motion offense can exploit Purdue's defensive liabilities, freeing up Timmy Allen and others to get open looks. The Boilermakers rank 207th in 3-point defense. Purdue is just 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 7-18-2 ATS the past 27 times when favored. Purdue had failed to cover in its last six games before burying an overmatched Yale squad in its first-round NCAA Tourney game. |
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03-20-22 | Celtics v. Nuggets +2.5 | 124-104 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
The Celtics are playing well. But so has Denver, which has won 14 of its last 19 games. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS the past five times they've been underdogs. I don't believe they should be a home 'dog here. The Nuggets have the best player on the court, Nikola Jokic, and should be the hungrier team following an overtime road loss to the Cavaliers two days ago. Denver also has revenge for a 108-102 road loss to the Celtics on Feb. 11. The Nuggets shot 11 of 44 (25 percent) from 3-point range in that loss. Denver has bolstered its rotation with DeMarcus Cousins and Bryn Forbes. Boston is a bit fat and happy with consecutive road victories against the Warriors and Kings. |
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03-20-22 | NC-Wilmington v. VMI | 93-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
It's a big drop from just missing out on going to the NCAA Tournament to participating in the College Basketball Tournament. I don't think UNC Wilmington is too excited playing in this tourney after coming within one win of reaching the NCAA Tournament. The Seahawks fell to Delaware, 59-55, in the Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament title game. The Keydets rank 19th in the country in scoring at 79.5 points. That's more than eight points per game than what Wilmington averages. VMI is strong in the middle with center Jake Stephens and has a dangerous 3-point shooter in Kamdyn Curfman. The Keydets are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games.
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03-19-22 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 48-53 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years. Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game. Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game. Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances. New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor. |
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03-19-22 | Pistons +6 v. Cavs | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Below-the-radar, the Pistons have been huge money-makers covering 12 of their last 13 games. Detroit is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog. Scheduling dynamics work in Detroit's favor here, too. The Cavaliers just defeated the Nuggets, 119-116 in overtime, as a short home underdog last night. The Cavaliers are a scrappy team not talented enough to lay mid-size points like this without rest. Cleveland is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times it has played without rest.
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03-19-22 | Richmond v. Providence -145 | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
Never mind that Providence won the Big East regular season title. The Friars were a popular fade against South Dakota State in their opening NCAA Tournament game on Thursday. Final score: Providence 66, South Dakota State 57. Early money has come against the Friars again in this matchup. Richmond is drawing support after the Spiders stunned Iowa, 67-63, as a 9 1/2-point 'dog on Thursday. Providence is better than it profiles. The Friars are so disrespected that there is now value to them. |
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03-19-22 | Western Illinois v. UTEP OVER 144.5 | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
Western Illinois averages 79 points a game, which ranks 25th. The Leathernecks, though, give up 77 points a game and are in the bottom-five in 3-point defense. UTEP is a 3-point shooting team and also an excellent free throw shooting squad. Western Illinois has allowed 80 or more points in seven of its last 10 games. The Miners are not a big scoring team like Western Illinois, but their style should work well against the Leathernecks. UTEP likes to press leading to baskets in transition. This aggressive style should produce both steals and fouls. It helps the Over that the Miners have increased their tempo from the start of the season. |
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03-19-22 | North Carolina v. Baylor -5 | 93-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
I want defending national champion Baylor going for me and the point spread is reasonable enough to back the Bears. Baylor has won seven straight NCAA Tournament games, covering the spread in its past six. This game is being played in Fort Worth, Texas so Baylor has a home state advantage. Both teams have short rotations usually using just seven players. The Bears are off a 85-49 blowout victory against Norfolk State on Thursday and had less traveling than North Carolina. The Bears give up nine fewer points per game than North Carolina. They rank 12th in the nation in 3-point defense compared to the Tar Heels placing 256th in that category. It's worth noting that streak shooter Matthew Mayer scored a career-high 22 points against Norfolk State hitting 8 of 12 shots from the floor and 4 of 7 3-pointers. |
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03-18-22 | Colgate +7.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 60-67 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means. Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble. Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten. The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that. |
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03-18-22 | TCU v. Seton Hall | 69-42 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
I don't like nor trust TCU's offense against Seton Hall's defense, which ranks 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs are 249th in scoring at 68.4 points per game. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. Seton Hall has won eight of its last 10 games. I like the Pirates' backcourt of Jared Rhoden and point guard Kadary Richmond, who is past his thumb injury. I see them carrying the Pirates to victory. |
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03-18-22 | CS-Fullerton v. Duke UNDER 145.5 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
Mike Kryzewski was not pleased at all with Duke's defense in its last game, an 82-67 loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC conference title game this past Saturday. That was 16 points more per game than the Blue Devils' defensive season average of 66 points. Look for Duke to tighten its defense. Cal State-Fullerton is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation ranking 307th. The Titans haven't shown they can produce big points when stepping up in class. They managed 66 points against Wyoming and 56 versus San Diego State. The Titans have looked good defensively, though, holding their last four opponents to an average of 57.7 points a game. Duke isn't playing as fast tempo-wise as it did earlier in the season. |
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03-18-22 | Chattanooga +8 v. Illinois | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
I suspected the Big Ten to be overrated with overinflated lines in this NCAA Tournament. Judging by Thursday's results that perception could be true. Iowa was upset by Richmond and Indiana was blown out by St. Mary's. That's a danger sign for Illinois, which was upset by the Hooisers in the Big Ten Conference Tournament quarterfinals. There's also recent history. The Illini were a No. 1 seed last season in the NCAA Tourney and lost to Loyola of Chicago in the second round as a seven-point favorite. Illinois is just 4-3 in its last seven games with none of its victories during this time frame coming by more than eight points. Tennessee Chattanooga is a dangerous opponent for Illinois because the Mocs can keep Kofi Cockburn from dominating the paint with 6-foot-10 Avery Diggs and 6-9 Silvio De Sousa. They also have a dominant scorer in guard Malachi Smith, who averages 20.1 points while shooting 50.5 percent from the floor. The Mocs are 16-6-1 ATS the past 23 times as an underdog. |
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03-18-22 | Yale v. Purdue -16 | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Yale has a decent player in fifth-year senior Azar Swain. But other than Swain, the Bulldogs are no match talent-wise height-wise and athletic-wise against Jaden Ivey, 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, Trevion Williams and the rest of the Boilermakers. There's a clear class difference here, much more than this point spread indicates. Yale had a losing record outside of the Ivy League. The Bulldogs were blasted whenever they stepped up in class. Among their non-conference losses was 80-44 to Seton Hall, 86-64 to Auburn, 61-53 to Vermont and 87-60 to St. Mary's. Purdue has 11 victories by at least 15 points, beating much better teams than Yale.
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03-17-22 | San Francisco v. Murray State -135 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
I'm going to ride Murray State here. The Racers have won 20 in a row. They last tasted defeat back on Dec. 22 against Auburn, which had been the No. 1 ranked team in the country for a while. I don't think it's asking too much of Murray State to beat San Francisco, the fourth-best team in the West Coast Conference. I respect the WCC, but I also think Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference is underrated. San Francisco could be dealing with a case of nerves having not participated in the NCAA Tournament in 24 years. The Dons are guard-oriented with one good big man, center Yauhen Massalski. However, Massalski is dealing with a knee injury sustained 12 days ago. It caused him to miss the Dons' last game. He'll likely play here but his mobility could be affected. |