These are the two best defenses in the country with the numbers to prove it.

Ohio State gave up the fewest points, total yards, yards per play and also was No. 1 in pass defense. Oregon was the only team to score more than 17 points on the Buckeyes. Ohio State has permitted an average of only 13 points during its last nine games, while going against Tennessee, Texas, Oregon and Penn State during this span. 

Notre Dame's offensive line has been banged-up. The Buckeyes have two potential first-round choices in their defensive line with Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau. 

The Irish have the No. 2 scoring defense in the nation. They rank 12th in pass defense and have 19 takeaways, which was the fifth-highest. Benjamin Morrison is in the discussion for best cornerback in college football. 

Notre Dame has given up 14 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games.

Neither quarterback, Will Howard nor Riley Leonard, is a downfield gunslinging threat.

These teams put up a combined 63 points in their first meeting this season. That was back on opening week in Brazil. I'm not expecting anything close to that this time around.

The Eagles improved themselves to the point where they could be the best defense in the NFL. Philadelphia gave up the fewest yards per game, ranked No. 1 in pass defense and second in scoring defense holding foes to 17.8 points a game. The Eagles gave up fewer than 21 points in eight of their last nine games.

Jordan Love may not be 100 percent because of a sore elbow. He'll be without his top deep threat and best bubble sweep runner, Christian Watson.

Only two teams played at a slower tempo than Green Bay. I envision the Packers playing a conservative game running Josh Jacobs plenty of times mixed in with short passes.

Jalen Hurts received concussion clearance as expected after sitting out the past two games. What's not good news for the Eagles is Hurts has completed one pass in his last three games. He figures to be rusty. You have to wonder if the Eagles will still employ their highly effective tush push so often with Hurts now?

The Eagles play at the eighth-slowest pace in the league.

Green Bay has invested many high draft choices on defense. Now the Packers are better coached defensively with Jeff Hafley replacing Joe Barry as defensive coordinator. The Packers were fifth in fewest yards allowed, sixth in scoring defense and seventh in run defense. They also had the third-most takeaways.

You have to give the devil his due. Baker Mayfield has put together another great season. Led by Mayfield, the Buccaneers have become an offensive juggernaut ranking in the top-four in scoring, total yards, passing yards and rushing yards.

Tampa Bay has scored 30 points or more in half of its games. This includes a wild, 51-27, win against the Saints.

New Orleans isn't going to stop the Buccaneers this time around either. The Saints rank 30th in yards allowed and run defense.

The Buccaneers are going for an NFC South Division crown. They are not going to let up. Mayfield is going to do his best to see that Mike Evans reaches his incentive clauses in his contract no matter how many points the Buccaneers are leading by.

Spencer Rattler has gotten more experience since that 51-27 loss, which was his first NFL start. The Buccaneers rank 29th in pass defense and have only seven takeaways. Their defense is way down from past seasons.

Notre Dame has one of the top defenses in the country and draw Georgia backup quarterback Gunner Stockton, who is untested. Carson Beck is out with an elbow injury.

The Bulldogs still have tremendous talent on defense, but their skill position talent is down this season particularly at running back. Georgia ranks 99th in rushing.

Defensively, though, Georgia has three potential first-round picks that all could go in the top 15 if they declare for the draft - Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker and Malaki Starks.

Notre Dame plays at a slow tempo and will be keeping the ball on the ground. That's going to take a lot of time off the clock.

It's not enough that the 49ers are without Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams and possibly down to their fourth-string tailback. But now the injury-riddled 49ers are scrambling to put together a cohesive offensive line. The left side of their offensive line is down to third-stringers.

If the 49ers are going to make a long-term commitment to Brock Purdy they may consider sitting him out, or at least reducing his playing time. The Lions have plenty of defensive injuries, but they also have defensive line depth, excellent safeties and are well-coached. San Francisco is 1-6 in its last seven games and out of playoff contention.

San Francisco isn't as banged-up defensively. The Lions won't need this game if the Vikings beat the Packers. If that were to happen, the Lions could dial down their attack not wanting to show much. A vanilla Detroit attack would have a more difficult time reaching this high of a total. Don't forget the 49ers held the Rams without a touchdown in a 12-6 loss at home just two weeks ago.

Bad weather is the forecast for this game - wind and steady rain. That's not a plus for Jayden Daniels, who makes fantastic plays because of his mobility.

The Falcons have become an Under team going below the total in six of their last seven games. Atlanta has improved its pass rush recording 16 sacks in its last four games after getting only 10 during its first 11 games.

This will be Michael Penix's first NFL road start. Expect a conservative game plan from the Falcons with lots of inside running plays.

Washington has held its last two non-elite offensive opponents, Saints and Titans, below 20 points. The Commanders' defense gets a boost with the return of two-time Pro bowl lineman Jonathan Allen.

Let's get the weather concerns out first. There is going to be rain. But light wind and the temperatures in the 40's.

It's a difficult travel spot for Minnesota. The Vikings have been humming, though, averaging 29.6 points during their last five games. They rank in the top-10 in points and passing.

Sam Darnold is having a career year in part because of excellent receiving targets. One Vikings' wide receiver has 30 catches for 473 yards and five touchdowns in his last five games - and it's not Justin Jefferson. It's Jordan Addison, who is having his breakout season.

Darnold not only has Jefferson, who draws a lot of double-team coverage, but Addison, a fully healthy now T.J. Hockenson and reliable pass-catching Aaron Jones out of the backfield.

Seattle's defense has improved, but it's middle-of-the-road.

The Seahawks have the league's No. 5 passing attack. Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are all expected to play. So Smith has plenty of firepower, too, given the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to go with DK Metcalf.

Indiana averages 43.3 points a game, which is the second-highest in the country. Only Oregon was better in the Big Ten Conference on third downs. The Hooisers had just eight turnovers all season, third-fewest in the nation.

Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti is an offensive guru. He has the right quarterback to operate his system in Kurtis Rourke, a rhythm passer who has five good receiving targets.

I have a red flag about Notre Dame's defense after the Irish surrendered 35 points, 559 yards and 29 first downs to USC in a 49-35 victory in their last game. USC QB Jayden Maiava had a big game with 360 yards passing and three TD throws against the Irish. I like Rourke more than Maiava.

But Notre Dame is favored for good reason. The Irish have a balanced attack. They have a physical offensive line that can dominate the line of scrimmage against Indiana's defensive front. Cignetti isn't going to sell out to stop the run like he did against Ohio State. That turned out to be a disaster in a 38-15 road loss to the Buckeyes. Indiana just doesn't have a strong enough defense to control Notre Dame.

Losing star players to opt outs and the transfer portal is a sad reality to handicapping bowl games nowadays.

In the case of West Virginia in this Frisco Bowl that also means a coaching change as Neal Brown was fired. Rich Rodriguez will take over next season. That leaves Chad Scott as the interim coach for this game. He's the Mountaineers' offensive coordinator.

The Mountaineers' transfer portal losses mainly came on defense. They will be short on cornerbacks and won't have their star linebacker, Josiah Trotter. Even with a full deck on defense, West Virginia gave up more than 36 points a game during their past six games.

Memphis certainly has the offense to take advantage behind four-year starting QB Seth Henigan, who has thrown for nearly 14,000 yards and 102 touchdowns during his career. West Virginia ranks eighth-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

I don't trust Memphis' defense, though. The Tigers surrendered 56 points to Navy, 44 to North Texas and 44 to Texas San Antonio. They rank 115th in pass defense.

West Virginia has scored at least 31 points in four of its last five games.

Bills-Lions in a dome certainly has the makings of a high-scoring game. But when you get an NFL total this high a lot has to go right for an Over to cash. That means anything less than touchdowns scored on drives is a win for the Under.

The Bills just got through losing, 44-42, to the Rams. Then this past Thursday against the 49ers, Los Angeles managed only 12 points and didn't score a TD in a 12-6 win. Of course I'm not expecting a similar type score here. But I do believe this one falls short of reaching the mid-50's.

The two defenses are underrated enough for that to happen.

Only seven teams give up fewer points per game than Buffalo, which has held opponents to 20.6 a game. That's after surrendering 44 points to the Rams, too. The Bills rank ninth in pass defense and have the sixth-most takeaways.

The Lions permit only 18 points a game, which is third-fewest in the NFL. They also rank fifth in run defense and have come up with the fourth-most takeaways.

Za'Darius Smith has been a huge addition replacing injured superstar Aidan Hutchinson. The veteran Smith has three sacks and 20 quarterback pressures in four games with the Lions. Detroit has arguably the best safety tandem in the league with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. According to Pro Football Focus grades, Joseph is the No. 1 safety in the NFL and Branch grades fifth.

The Lions also shored up their secondary depth adding veteran Jamal Adams, who was a versatile star at safety just a couple of seasons ago before sustaining repeated injuries. Adams is healthy now and has been added to the roster.

The 49ers' offense is a shell of what it could be with Brock Purdy dealing with a sore arm, Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams out, reliable wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk out and their two top running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, both sidelined, too.

Chicago's defense is respectable. The Bears held the Packers, Commanders and Rams all under 21 points. They also yielded just 23 points to the Lions, who lead the NFL in scoring at 32.1 points a game. 

The Bears haven't broken the 20-point barrier in any of their five road games. Chicago is averaging 14.6 points in its five road contests. The Bears also might be down their top receiver as D.J. Moore is questionable. 

Chicago just fired Matt Eberflus. Good for them. But they named Thomas Brown interim head coach. Brown had just recently been elevated to offensive coordinator. Now he's responsible for the entire team. So details to Chicago's offense may get neglected this week, especially on a long road trip. 

The 49ers are going to play with maximum intensity. They will be conservative, too, relying on third-string rookie running back Isaac Guerendo. 

So I see a low-scoring game. 

Two bottom feeding AFC South Division teams with nothing going should ensure a loose game.

Tennessee's defense has good statistics. But the Titans don't play to those numbers. They are not a sound defense surrendering an average of 31.7 points in their last seven games. 

Mac Jones engineered two touchdown drives while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt against a respectable Texans defense after replacing injured Trevor Lawrence last week. 

Will Levis is an improving quarterback. He has tossed seven touchdown passes in his last four games while compiling a 101.4 passer rating and 8.4 yards per attempt during this span.

The Titans have a number of defensive players hurt. The Jaguars could be minus their top cornerback, Tyson Campbell. He has a thigh injury. 

If the weather forecast for this matchup holds true, it's going to make last Thursday's Steelers-Browns snow game seem like a warm day in Hawaii. 

A winter storm watch with more than a half-foot of snow, 30 mph winds and a will chill factor near single digits is what is being predicted. 

That's not good for Brock Purdy ... if he even plays after missing last week due to a sore right shoulder. 49ers backup QB Brandon Allen is a stiff, who isn't 100 percent either.

Aside from George Kittle, the 49ers' major weapons have been either disappointing or out for the season. Christian McCaffrey has done nothing since returning three games ago. He's averaged less than 50 yards rushing a game and has yet to score a touchdown. Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams remains out.

The Bills give up fewer than 20 points per game and could get back their best linebacker, Matt Milano. 

The Bills have become far more run-oriented this season. That certainly should be the case for this matchup given the weather conditions and that Josh Allen again could be down two of his four best receivers. Dalton Kincaid has been ruled out and Keon Coleman is questionable.

Among the many things Jim Harbaugh has done in upgrading the Chargers this season is getting a career year from Justin Herbert in terms of all-around play.

Look for Herbert to have a big performance against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in pass defense and has an NFL-low 10 sacks. By comparison, the next lowest team in sacks is Carolina with 17. On top of this, the Falcons went into their bye with a cluster injury problem in their secondary. It's far from a given they will have some of these defensive backs available.

The Chargers have great defensive numbers. But their defense is not dominant because it can't stop explosive offenses. The Chargers built their defensive numbers going against six bad/backup type quarterbacks.

But when the Chargers met the Ravens and Bengals during the last two weeks, they surrendered 30 and 27 points.

The Falcons are in the middle. Not as explosive as the Ravens and Bengals, but Kirk Cousins is a major upgrade on these quarterbacks the Chargers have been fortunate to face: Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis.

The Falcons should have a good game plan having had an extra week to prepare. The time off should allow underrated Darnell Mooney to be able to play, joining Cousins' other weapons Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Not only is this a rivalry game, but the stakes are huge because the winner becomes bowl eligible while the season is finished for the loser. That should provide for maximum intensity.

This is the lowest total on a Virginia game all season. It's justified. The Cavaliers' attack has regressed. Virginia is averaging 14.7 points in its last four games.

Virginia Tech has quarterback issues. Because of injuries to Kyron Drones and backup Collin Schlee, the Hokies could be forced to start third-string freshman Pop Watson. That would mark Watson's first college start. He was not accurate passing when forced into action in last week's road loss to Duke.

The Hokies' best weapon could be Peter Moore, who is one the best punters in the country.

Given how explosive Detroit's offense is, especially at home on carpet inside a dome, and the Bears' offensive improvement, this total is too low. 

Caleb Williams has shown vast improvement since Thomas Brown replaced ineffective Shane Waldron as the Bear's offensive coordinator. Brown has played to Williams' strengths and the results have shown the past two weeks.

The Bears produced 19 points, 391 yards and 23 first down against the Packers two weeks ago. Chicago followed that up by scoring 27 points, gaining 398 yards and 20 first downs against the Vikings last week. 

Chicago will need to take chances and be aggressive offensively because it won't be able to contain a balanced Detroit offense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in points and is No. 2 in total yards. 

The Lions are averaging a mind-blowing 48.6 points in their last three home games. Dan Campbell will be anxious to put on a show for this annual Thanksgiving Day game. 

It's taken a while, but the Eagles have bought into defensive mastermind Vic Fangio scheme. That's been the history during Fangio's first year with a new team.

The Eagles now rank first in fewest yards allowed and are No. 2 in pass defense. Philadelphia has yielded only 13.8 points per game during its past six games. During this six-game span, the Eagles are allowing just 209.7 yards per game.

The Rams managed only 15 points against the Dolphins in their previous home game two weeks ago. The Eagles' defense is superior to Miami's defense.

Los Angeles has held its last eight opponents to 24 points or fewer. The Eagles will be without their No. 2 wide receiver, DeVonta Smith. He's out with a hamstring injury. There's a big drop-off from Smith to the Eagles' next best receiver.

Because Tua Tagovailoa missed four games due to a concussion, you can toss out Miami's season statistics. The Dolphins without Tagovailoa were terrible. They are explosive with him, one of the better offenses in the NFL.

The Dolphins are averaging 27.7 points since Tagovailoa returned four games ago. They are eighth in expected points during this time frame.

New England has gotten better offensively and worse defensively. If you discount holding the punchless Bears to three points, the Patriots have surrendered an average of 28.6 points in their last five games. New England is below average in all of the major defensive categories.

Drake Maye, though, keeps getting better. He completed 30-of-40 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams last week. The Dolphins have an average defense, far from dominant.

Hope is not lost just yet for Will Levis. He's shown improvement after coming back from a shoulder injury completing 64.8 percent of his throws for 470 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Levis has some underrated weapons, including Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley.

The Texans have allowed 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.

Tennessee's defense is the opposite of a bend-but-don't break defense. The Titans rank in the top two in defensive total yards and pass defense. However, they rank 26th in scoring defense permitting 26.3 points a game. Some of that comes from horrible coverage on special teams. The Titans only have three takeaways. Their defense is not nearly as good as some of their statistics.

C.J. Stroud is due to explode having Nico Collins back in the lineup after he missed five weeks with a hamstring injury. Collins got the rust off last week.

Joe Mixon continues to shine for Houston. His 95.5 yards rushing a game ranks third behind only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Mixon has scored 10 touchdowns in his last six games.

Arkansas State is a bad defensive team. UL-Monroe, however, is heavily ground-oriented and  plays at the second-slowest pace in the nation.

The Warhawks rank fourth-from-the-bottom in passing. If you discount a 38-point performance against a horrendous 1-9 Southern Mississippi team, Monroe is averaging 15.4 points in its last seven games.

Arkansas State has scored fewer than 20 points in five of its last eight games. Monroe ranks 23rd in pass defense.

Heavy wind, slow tempo and bad offenses all put me on the Under.

The forecast is for a chance of rain with winds gusting in the 16-22 mph range.

Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in terms of pace. Michigan State plays especially slow.

Neither team has explosive playmakers. Purdue is averaging a puny 7.5 points in its last four games. Michigan State has been held under 20 points in six of its last seven games.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Travis Kelce get all the publicity. What isn't so publicized is how well Kansas City and Buffalo are defensively. 

The Chiefs rank in the top-five in fewest points, yards and rushing yards allowed per game. Buffalo gives up the ninth-fewest points in the league and is tied for second with 19 takeaways. 

The offenses of these two powerhouses are down because of injuries. 

Kansas City is without its best wideout, Rashee Rice, and top runner, Isiah Pacheco. Mahomes isn't having a great statistical year ranking 17th in the passer ratings. Kicking could become an adventure now for the Chiefs as normally reliable Harrison Butker is out with a knee injury replaced by Spencer Shrader, who was on the Jets' practice squad. 

The Bills have become more ground-oriented this season. That eats clock. Josh Allen will be down two of his four best receivers with Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid ruled out. There's a chance, too, the Bills could be without Amari Cooper, who has been sidelined the past two games with a wrist injury, and offensive right tackle Spencer Brown, who is questionable due to an ankle injury. 

The total has been bet down in this important SEC matchup and for good reason. The defenses are better than the offenses.

Tennessee gives up the fifth-fewest yards and points per game in the nation. The Volunteers' front seven is in the argument for best in the country.

Georgia's ground game is down from past seasons and QB Carson Beck has noticeably regressed. Beck has been picked off nine times in the last four games and has 12 interceptions on the season.

The Bulldogs give up 18.4 points a game, which ranks 17th in the country. Georgia also is 13th in defensive total yards.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has been inconsistent and is not 100 percent healthy. Iamaleava has surpassed 200 yards passing in just three of nine games. The Volunteers' offensive line commits a lot of penalties and is not good in pass protection.

So this figures to be a conservative game with each team relying on their defense to pull it out.

Miami's season statistics are highly misleading because of Tua Tagovailoa missing four games. Tagovailoa has been back for the past two games - and Miami has regained its explosiveness scoring 27 points each against the Bills and Cardinals.

Tagovailoa has completed 80.3 percent of his throws for three touchdowns and no interceptions during these last two weeks. He makes everyone around him much better. The Rams' defense has shown improvement, but it's not good enough when going against a strong offense.

Despite this being a non-conference matchup, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is familiar with the Rams' defense and Sean McVay because of his time coaching the 49ers' offense.

Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level for the Rams. He has his two star wideouts healthy again, which makes a huge difference. The Dolphins have only four takeaways on the season and rank 19th in scoring defense.

After playing Kentucky and Alabama, Tennessee steps way down in class taking on Mississippi State. There isn't a worst defense in the SEC.

How bad are the Bulldogs' defensively? They are giving up 42.6 points in five SEC games. They rank 129th out of 134 teams in yards allowed and they are the second-worst in the country in stop rate, a metric that is the percentage of defensive drives ending in a put, turnover, or turnover on downs.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava is coming off a strong game against Kentucky completing 28 of 38 throws for 292 yards and a touchdown. The Volunteers rank 12th in scoring averaging 38.1 points a game. Iamaleava should have plenty of time to scan the field since the Bulldogs have only two sacks in their five SEC matchups.

Mississippi State should contribute its share to this total going Over. The Bulldogs are averaging nearly 400 yards in SEC play while converting their third downs at close to a 40 percent rate. Michael Van Buren Jr. will be making his sixth consecutive start since replacing injured Blake Shapen in mid-September.

The Bulldogs are averaging 31.2 points in their last four games. They put up 31 points on Georgia.

This total is too short considering how fast these teams play and their current form.

East Carolina's last three games have averaged a total of 80.6 points being scored. 

Florida Atlantic has had at least 58 combined points scored during its last five games vs. FBS opponents. Florida Atlantic just surrendered 44 points to South Florida, who was playing without its starting QB. The Owls gave up 526 yards, including 320 rushing yards, in that loss to the Owls.

East Carolina yielded 34 points and 405 yards to Temple in its last game while scoring 54 points. Temple is a bottom tier offense averaging fewer than 21 points a game, while ranking 119th in total yards.

These are two of the weaker defenses in the ACC. Stanford gives up 31.5 points a game, which ranks 108th in scoring defense. North Carolina State allows 31.1 points per game, which is 105th.

Both Stanford and Clemson have enough playmakers to take advantage of these below par defenses. Cardinal wide receiver Elic Anyomanor is one of the most talented pass catchers in the country. Stanford QB Ashton Daniels is a dual threat, who has completed 62.2 percent of his passes and leads the team in rushing.

Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey is getting better each week since replacing injured Grayson McCall. Bailey has thrown for more than 300 yards each of the last two games and has a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stanford ranks 123rd in pass defense.

Memphis QB Seth Henigan holds the school record for touchdown passes with 91. Henigan should face little difficulty adding to that total against a Texas San-Antonio secondary that ranks 125th in pass defense.

The Roadrunners are coming off a 46-45 road loss to Tulsa. Making that defeat so bad for UTSA is it blew a 35-7 halftime lead!

Memphis is surrendering an average of 36 points during its past two games playing UNC Charlotte and North Texas.

Neither defense can be trusted. This game also is on a fast track being played indoors at the Alamodome.

Weather factors here. There is more than a 90 percent chance of rain in Seattle with the wind blowing at 10-to-15 miles per hour. 

Couple that with D.K. Metcalf likely out and Seattle getting defensive reinforced and there should be fewer points scored than expected. 

The Seahawks are more healthy defensively than they have been. Derrick Hall and Boye Mafe are one of the more underrated pass rushing tandems with a combined nine sacks this season. Seattle also traded for tackling machine linebacker Ernest Jones. 

The Bills are on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. This is their longest road trip. Buffalo has become more ground-oriented this season. Seattle just held the Falcons to 14 points in Atlanta this past Sunday. The Falcons had averaged 33.3 points during their previous three games. 

Seattle has a strong defensive brain trust with head coach Mike Macdonald, the mastermind behind Baltimore's defenses, and assistant head coach Leslie Frazier, a defensive-minded coach who was Buffalo's defensive coordinator from 2017-22. Frazier obviously knows Josh Allen and the Bills well. 

Metcalf suffered a sprained MCL in the Seahawks' win against the Falcons. He's the alpha in Seattle's receiving pecking order and the lone deep threat. 

Buffalo gives up the seventh-fewest points per game at 19.4. 

Now that the Chargers' outstanding starting offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are healthy, Jim Harbaugh can run a more balanced offense and not be so run-heavy. It also helps that Justin Herbert seems healed from an ankle sprain. Herbert is an elite passer when given adequate pass protection and being healthy.

Herbert has mediocre receivers to throw to, but the bar is set very low here. The Cardinals are a bottom-six defense with multiple injuries. They lack a pass rush and rank 29th in run defense. Herbert should have favorable play-call situations all game against this foe.

I expect the Cardinals' offense to get in gear. Kyler Murray has the mobility and the skill position talent. Look for Marvin Harrison Jr. to be among his weapons for this game.

The Cardinals have had to play the Packers and 49ers on the road during their past two games. Now they are home. That should make a difference.

The Chargers have excellent defensive numbers. The only good quarterback, though, the Chargers have faced this season is Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have been fortunate to go against the following QB's: Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields and Bo Nix. So their defensive numbers are skewed.

If you like Unders then the NFL Sunday night games this season have been perfect for you as each of the six Sunday night games have gone below the total.

Look for that string to continue tonight in the Jets-Steelers matchup.

The Jets were in the news acquiring Davonte Adams. But the Jets can have all the weapons they want. It won't matter if 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers doesn't have time in the pocket. Slowed by ankle and knee soreness, the increasingly immobile Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in the Jets' past three games. He's been hit 30 times during this three-game time span.

Pittsburgh has the premier pass rusher in football, T.J. Watt. The Steelers give up the second-fewest points in the league. They rank fourth in run defense. The Jets are on a short week and traveling after losing to the Bills this past Monday night.

I'm somewhat perplexed by Mike Tomlin's decision to start Russell Wilson, who hasn't been good for three years and figures to be rusty. The Jets give up the second-fewest yards per game and seventh-fewest points.

The Steelers rank 26th in total offense. Their run-oriented offense is highly conservative. Not surprising since their offensive coordinator is Arthur Smith, who never met a run up the middle he didn't like.

If there is a worse NFL defense than Carolina this season, I haven't seen it. The Panthers are giving up an average of 36 points during their last three games. They rank last in scoring defense, 30th in run defense and 29th in total defense. Injuries to their best linebackers and defensive linemen have rendered what began as a below-average defense to absolute dust.

Sparked by Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have produced an NFL record of highest percentage of drives ending in a score through the first six games at 62 percent.

Carolina has scored 20, 22 and 24 points in three of four games Andy Dalton has started. Now the Panthers get to face a well-below-par Washington defense that has just one takeaway. The Commanders just lost their best defensive lineman, Jonathan Allen, for the season, too.

Nice weather is expected in Landover, Md., so everything is in place for a high-scoring game the oddsmaker is certainly expecting.

As long as the Texans don't self-destruct like the Cardinals did last Sunday against Green Bay losing three fumbles, they will put up their share of points on the Packers. Green Bay has many high draft choices on defense. But the production on most of these players hasn't matched the draft capital Green Bay spent on them. Underrated defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt has an injured ankle and high-priced nose tackle Kenny Clark and cornerback Jaire Alexander are having disappointing seasons.

Joe Mixon returned to the Texans' lineup last Sunday after being out for three games and Houston put up 41 points on the Patriots and that was without Nico Collins.

The Packers have their offense humming with a healthy lineup. Green Bay is averaging 29.2 points in its last four games. Jordan Love has a deep set of receiving targets and should be in line to match last week's four-touchdown passing performance against a beat-up Houston defense that gave up three touchdown passes to rookie Drake Maye in his NFL debut last Sunday.

Green Bay's biggest offensive weakness has been kicking. That problem should be solved with this week's signing of veteran Brandon McManus, who has one of the league's highest percentage of field goals made inside 50 yards.

Navy has gone Over in all five of its games this season. No surprise since the Midshipmen have scored at least 34 points in every one of their games. The Midshipmen rank No. 2 in the nation in rushing offense and 16th in total offense.

Charlotte ranks 119th in yards allowed per game. The 49ers give up 31.7 points a game, which ranks 111th.

The 49ers' offense is off their best game producing 55 points against East Carolina two weeks ago. The 49ers had their bye this week so they should have a few new wrinkles to throw at Navy.

Sure this is a very high total. But it's totally justified. The two teams played last season and Texas State won, 77-31. The Bobcats ran up the score, too, in that one. So neither of these teams is going to let up no matter what the score is. 

Texas State is all about scoring under offensive mastermind G.J. Kinne. The Bobcats are averaging 37.6 points a game. The Over has cashed in four of their five games.

Arkansas State has a porous defense ranking 120th in total defense. The Red Wolves, though, have a big-time wide receiver in Corey Rucker. They can do their part to get this total Over against a pedestrian Texas State defense. 

James Madison was upset, 21-19, by UL Monroe in its last game as a 17-point road favorite. I believe the Dukes, though, are much more like the powerhouse they were during the previous two games when they scored 63 points on Ball State and 70 points against North Carolina.

Alonza Barnett is an outstanding dual threat QB. Coastal Carolina is a sloppy tackling team that ranks 116th in rum defense and 98th in scoring defense and total defense. This was against weak competition, too.  

The Dukes are going to get their points. The key is can Coastal Carolina do its share of scoring? I believe the Chanticleers can. James Madison has faced four weak offenses in its five games. North Carolina put up 50 points against the Dukes.

Coastal Carolina has put up at least 40 points in three of its five games. The Chanticleers just put up 45 points against a respectable Old Dominion defense last week.

Down their most dangerous wide receiver, Rashee Rice, and best running back, Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs are not the explosive team some perceive. Kansas City has scored just 39 combined points the past two weeks taking on the Chargers and Falcons.

The Saints have a solid, well-coached defense that gives up the seventh-fewest points per game at 17.5.

Kansas City's strength is its defense, which surrenders just 18 points a game. 

The Saints are dealing with a cluster injury problem to their offensive line. Out are Pro Bowl center Erik, McCoy, his backup center Shane Lemieux and guard Cesar Ruiz. Swingman Lucas Patrick is questionable. Also out is Taysom Hill, the Saints' unique gadget player and highly effective goal line runner. 

So expect the Saints to have plenty of problems keeping elite defensive lineman Chris Jones away from Derek Carr, who is one of the least effective quarterbacks when under a heavy pass rush.

Dual threat Jayden Daniels is capable of producing points against any defense. He's already showing signs of being the Lamar Jackson of the NFC. The Cardinals have a below average defense. They've come up with only one takeaway.

The Cardinals are back to having a high-powered attack with Kyler Murray fully healthy. Murray has plenty of receiving weapons even without injured stud tight end Trey McBride. James Conner hasn't gotten hurt yet, so he gives the Cardinals a balanced attack.

The Commanders present a solid case for having the worst defense in the NFL. They rank in the bottom-four in key statistical categories, including scoring defense, most yards allowed and pass defense. Washington has yet to come up with a takeaway.

Eastern Michigan plays at a slow pace and ranks 103rd in yardage. The Eagles are far from explosive.

Don't expect any explosion from Kent State either. The Golden Flashes rank last in yards and second-to-last in points averaging 10.3.

Kent State is down to third-string QB Tommy Ulatowski because of injuries. Because of this the Golden Flashes are going to have to rely on an ineffective ground attack that averages a puny 1.67 yards on the ground. They won't be playing fast either.

The buy sign is on for these offenses. So is the situation. It's a high total, but I envision a shootout.

The Lions are in ill favor. They racked up 463 yards against Tampa Bay last week, but managed only 16 points because of going 1 for 7 in the red zone. Even with that the Lions still have scored 30 or more points in five of their last nine games.

Arizona has a weak defense. The Lions have all of their major weapons. I don't see the Cardinals slowing down Detroit.

But I also don't see the Lions holding down the Cardinals either.

The Cardinals' offense was as good as envisioned in Week 2 scoring 41 points on the Rams. The Cardinals took their foot off the gas, too, in the fourth quarter. A fully healthy Kyler Murray is back playing at a high level and Marvin Harrison Jr. gives him a stud wide receiver to go with elite tight end Trey McBride.

Arizona leads the NFL in converting third down plays at 58 percent.

There is little doubt about Toledo's offense. The Rockets have produced 49 points against Duquesne, 38 points vs. UMass and then 41 points and 454 yards against Mississippi State last week. Doing that against an SEC opponent on the road is impressive. 

Rockets QB Tucker Gleason has thrown for 662 yards and has a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. 

But some have doubts about Western Kentucky's quarterback situation after TJ Finley suffered a leg injury. He'll be out for this game. Sophomore Caden Veltkamp will replace him.

I'm not one of those who have doubts that the Hilltoppers will put up a lot of points with the quarterback change. They have a quarterback-friendly system that has produced an average of 40 points in their last two games against Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. A shutout loss to Alabama opening week skews Western Kentucky's overall offensive numbers.

Veltkamp has a career mark of throwing for 821 yards with a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Both teams play at a fast tempo, too. 

Toledo averaged 35 points last season and 33 points two years ago. The Rockets are averaging 43.5 points in two games this season. They have a balanced attack. Mississippi State ranks 121st in run defense. So the Rockets are going to get their share of points. 

Mississippi State is averaging 42.5 points a game through two games. The Bulldogs have committed just one turnover. They are facing a Rockets defense that ranks 73rd in defensive total yards despite playing easy opponents, Duquesne and UMass. 

Blake Shapen is an underrated quarterback and the Bulldogs have surrounded him with good receiving targets. 

Another key is tempo. Both of these teams rank in the top 20 in terms of pace. 

It's a fast track inside the Falcons' dome stadium, but I'm not expecting a fast-paced game between these two teams.

The Steelers have a washed-up Russell Wilson as their quarterback and could be the most run-heavy team in the NFL. That notion is reinforced with the addition of Arthur Smith as Pittsburgh's new offensive coordinator. Smith is as run-heavy as any offensive coordinator.

Pittsburgh's offensive line still looks underwhelming and the Falcons upgraded their defense, trading for elite pass rusher Matthew Judon and greatly strengthening their secondary by signing safeties Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates.

Don't expect the Falcons to light up the scoreboard. Kirk Cousins is 35 and coming back from a torn Achilles. He didn't play during preseason so he figures to be rusty and he's with a new team. The Steelers are strong defensively led by elite pass rusher T.J. Watt.

Smith should be an asset assisting Mike Tomlin here since he coached the Falcons during the previous three years.

North Carolina State needed to upgrade at quarterback. The Wolfpack certainly did that landing transfer Grayson McCall, who has more than 10,000 passing yards and 109 all-purpose touchdowns. The Wolfpack put up 38 points against Western Carolina in their opener last week. 

Tennessee has its own emerging star quarterback in Nico Iamaleava. He helped lead the Volunteers to a 35-0 whipping of Iowa in a bowl game last season and he was sharp in Tennessee's, 69-3, shellacking of Tennessee-Chattanooga last week with three TD passes and 314 yards passing before sitting out. The Volunteers played at an exceptionally fast tempo in that game. 

So look for a shootout here with two outstanding passing attacks, playing at an up-tempo pace. 

Michigan State's offense is terrible. The Spartans are averaging 11.9 points in their last 11 games. New QB Aidan Chiles wasn't impressive, nor was the Spartans' offense, in last week's opening win, 16-10, at home against Florida Atlantic. The Spartans couldn't reach 300 yards against Florida Atlantic.

Maryland was much more impressive in a 50-7 opening-week victory against overmatched Connecticut. The Terrapins, though, are breaking in new QB Billy Edwards Jr. after four years of having Taulia Tagovailoa behind center. Edwards is going to have it much rougher stepping up against Michigan State's defense, which is way ahead of its offense.

I see Maryland turning in a good defensive performance, too, as the Terrapins have improved the past couple of years defensively and are facing an extremely weak offense.

SMU ranked eighth in scoring and 16th in total offense last year. After a slow three quarters in their opener against Nevada, the Mustangs' offense has gotten back on track producing 76 points in their last five quarters.

The Mustangs have a star quarterback in Preston Stone and plenty of speedy skill position weapons for Stone to utilize. BYU's defense was way down last season. The Cougars gave up an average of 37.5 points in six road games last season. I don't see the Cougars holding SMU below 35 points.

The key question then becomes how much can BYU score to push this total Over?

I believe the Cougars' offense can produce their share of points and not just because SMU is rebuilding its defensive line and secondary.

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff displayed a big arm in passing for 348 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-13 victory against Southern Illinois last week.

Texas A&M has made seven quarterback changes during the past two seasons. The Aggies still have an unsettled offensive line and are not scary at the skill position spots.

Notre Dame's defense should be able to handle the Aggies. The Irish ranked in the top 10 defensively in many important categories, including fifth in yards allowed and seventh in scoring defense.

Defense is the strength of Texas A&M especially in the defensive line where Purdue transfer Nic Scourton comes on board after leading the Big Ten in sacks last year. Notre Dame lacks experience in the offensive line where three starters departed, including star tackle Joe Alt.

The Irish are breaking in skill position players, too, including QB Riley Leonard. Texas A&M's first year head coach Mike Elko is familiar with Leonard since he coached him at Duke last year.

Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total.

There were 73 combined points in last year's Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs. While I don't believe the 49ers and Chiefs will get anywhere near that number, I do believe there will be more than 50 points produced by the two teams.

Andy Reid is one of the best offensive innovator head coaches of all-time. Kyle Shanahan is an elite play-caller. Give these coaches two weeks to prepare and they should design excellent schemes and game plans.

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and already one of the all-time greats. He has a Hall of Fame tight end, Travis Kelce, wide receiver depth and a solid running back in Isiah Pacheco, who is running behind an improved run-blocking offensive line.

San Francisco has an average secondary and its overall defense has not looked good in its two playoff games. Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards, while averaging 6.0 yards a carry, against the 49ers and the Lions rushed for 182 yards on 29 carries - a 6.3 yards per run average - against San Francisco. Mahomes is going to be highly effective if the Chiefs are running the ball well. The Chiefs put up 31 points when they met the 49ers in the Super Bowl four seasons ago.

Kansas City has its best defense of the Reid/Mahomes era. But the rules highly favor offense and the 49ers have numerous weapons for Brock Purdy with Christian McCaffrey - the best all-purpose back in the league - Deebo Samuel - the best combination of receiver/runner in the NFL - emerging star Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

The Chiefs just lost two of their defensive linemen to injuries, Charles Omenihu and Derrick Nnadi. The 49ers are averaging 31.1 points in their last 10 games in which Purdy has started. Kansas City's defense is good, but not elite. It can't stop all of those 49ers weapons.

San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited.

Those are my reasons, in a nutshell, why I don't see this rather high total going Over.

The 49ers surrendered the third-fewest points in the league at 17.5. They also have the No. 3 run defense and were sixth in takeaways. San Francisco gave up 21 or fewer points in seven of its last nine games. I seriously question how effective Goff will be on the road against this caliber of defense.

The Lions are tough to run on. They gave up the second-fewest rushing yards and were fourth in causing negative plays. Detroit hasn't yielded more than 24 points during any of its last six games. The Lions held both the Chiefs and Cowboys to just 20 points each when they played them on the road.

Purdy didn't look good against the Packers last week. Many of his throws were not accurate. The 49ers are reliant on Samuel, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The 49ers averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel and 5.7 yards per play without him. 

The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline.

Yes, there are some very good skill position players involved. But this is a high total and these defenses are not as bad as some perceive. I also believe there will be more running plays than expected. 

Raheem Morris is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. He's done a fine job with the Rams this season. Aaron Donald still is in his dominant prime. Morris has the Rams playing a lot of soft coverage. This invites the run and prevents big plays from happening. It's good for the Under. 

Lions coach Dan Campbell isn't afraid to feature a lot of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. The Rams held seven of their last nine opponents to 22 or fewer points. Just once did the Rams allow an opposing runner to gain 100 rushing yards.

Goff's top red zone target is tight end Sam LaPorta, who set a rookie record with 86 catches and ranked No. 1 in red zone touchdowns for tight ends. LaPorta suffered a knee injury in the Lions' Week 18 victory against the Vikings. He'll be limited if he plays. Also hurt in that game was Kalif Raymond, a dangerous return man for the Lions. 

The Rams use Kyren Williams to set up their passing attack. Detroit's defense strength is its run defense. The Lions finished third in yards per carry allowed and No. 2 in run defense limiting opposing runners to 88.8 yards per game.

I find this total too high for a pair of inexperienced playoff teams. C.J. Stroud is an extraordinary rookie. But he's going against a Cleveland defense that gave up the fewest yards per game and finished No. 2 in the metric DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Stroud also has to deal with maybe the best pass rusher in the league, Myles Garrett.

Joe Flacco has been a remarkable story saving the Browns' season. But what's been overlooked about Flacco, who turns 39 in a matter of days, is he has thrown eight interceptions in his five starts with Cleveland.

I envision the Browns being heavily run-oriented against the Texans. The Colts had great success on the ground vs the Texans. But they had Jonathan Taylor. The Browns don't have an above average runner with Nick Chubb sidelined.

Houston's defense is going to get reinforced, too, this week with the return of star pass rushing rookie Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman, an underrated player who racks up tackles. The Texans also might get back defensive lineman Jonathan Greenard.

This is an NFL regular season game masquerading as an exhibition game with an exhibition type total.

No Patrick Mahomes. No Justin Herbert nor Keenan Allen.

The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 playoff seed in the AFC. The Chargers are rudderless awaiting a new coach. Andy Reid has told his Chiefs to go out and have fun. The Chiefs won't have Mahomes, but their quarterback-friendly offensive system is in place.

So I see a loosely, played game with each team not afraid to take chances.

The headline is Mahomes not playing. But many key defensive players won't be in action either. The Chargers already have ruled out Joey Bosa and Kenneth Murray. The Chiefs could sit out their best defensive player, star pass rusher Chris Jones. He's dealing with a groin injury.

Blaine Gabbert will fill-in for Mahomes. He's one of the better backup QB's in the league. He's backed by an above average offense. The Chiefs don't have any stars at wide receiver, but they do have good wide receiving depth. The bar is set low for Kansas City's offense. The Chargers rank 29th in total defense and 30th in pass defense. They just surrendered 63 points to the Raiders three weeks ago.

Easton Stick will be making his fifth straight QB start for the Chargers. He has command of the offense. The Chargers, like the Chiefs, are a passing offense. Unlike other Week 18 games, weather won't factor here with clear skies, temperatures in the high 50's and little wind.

The Vikings' defense has improved under ace defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota has held four of its last six opponents to 21 or fewer points.

Kevin O'Connell did the Packers a big favor by having rookie Jaren Hall start. Hall has passed for a total of 101 yards in the NFL. This signals the Vikings are going to be extra cautious and conservative in this matchup.

Jaire Alexander is suspended. But he's missed most of the season and hasn't played up to his elite level when he has been on the field. The Vikings also are without star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Since returning from a finger injury, Matthew Stafford has been one of the best QB's in the NFL throwing for 1,578 yards with a 15-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games. 

Setting up Stafford has been the emergence of Kyren Williams as an elite running back. The second-year running back tops the NFL averaging 96.1 yards rushing a game. The Giants rank 29th in run defense. So an effective Williams should mean another big performance for Stafford and his stud wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. 

Making it worse for the Giants is they are banged-up in their defensive line. 

The buy sign is on the Giants offense with Brian Daboll going with veteran Tyrod Taylor at quarterback instead of Tommy DeVito. 

Weather won't be a factor with temperatures in the 40's, clear skies and only a slight wind.

This is the supreme fade spot on the Raiders' offense after they put up 63 points against the hapless Chargers at home last week. Despite that result, Las Vegas' offense isn't very good, quarterbacked by Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders averaged just 11.5 points in their previous four games before hosting the Chargers.

The Chiefs entered this week surrendering the third-fewest points per game at 17.5. Their defense is strong and is even better with linebacker Nick Bolton back from injury.

Kansas City's offense is way down from past Patrick Mahomes seasons. The Chiefs are outside of the top-10 in scoring. This is the weakest wide receiver group Mahomes has had.

Weather is going to factor, too. The forecast is for showers, possibly snow, with temperatures dipping below 32. The Raiders are an indoors team that hasn't played in a bad weather game all season.

Geno Smith has missed Seattle's last two games. When Smith last played it was against the Cowboys. He accounted for four touchdowns and threw for 334 yards leading the Seahawks to 35 points in a 41-35 road loss. Smith is capable of games like that aided by having three excellent wide receivers and two good running backs. Smith will be back in action for this matchup.

Smith's task will be made easier by the Titans' cluster injury problem on defense. Among those out for Tennessee is lineman Jeffery Simmons. He's the Titans best defensive player. The Titans' secondary is decimated by injuries. Among those out are cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Sean Murphy-Bunting along with safeties Amani Hooker and K'Von Wallace. Defensive backs Shyheim Carter and Tae Gowan have been called up from the practice squad.

The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention. That should ensure a loose game from them with nothing to lose. Ryan Tannehill is back at quarterback with Will Levis unable to go. Tannehill is playing for his NFL future. Derrick Henry also is in rebound mode coming off one of his worst performances.

Seattle has its own injuries in the secondary. Safety Jamal Adams has been ruled out and cornerback Devon Witherspoon is out, too, with a hip injury.

The last three games in this series have gone Over. There have been at least 52 points scored during each of those past three games. I see that pattern continuing.

The Lions have tremendous firepower with Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and explosive Jamison Williams. The Vikings are heavy blitzers. But Jared Goff will be well-protected with the Lions' excellent offensive line healthy again.

Goff usually is at his finest playing on a fast track in a dome setting like in this matchup. Detroit ranks in the top-five in many of the major offensive categories, including points, yards, passing and rushing.  

Detroit's defense has been exposed as fraudulent. The Lions are giving up an average of 27.2 points in their last eight games.

The Vikings have the right backup quarterback in place now with veteran Nick Mullens. He's a much better distributor than Joshua Dobbs or rookie Jaren Hall. Justin Jefferson is healthy, giving Mullens a great wideout to go with star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Look for a lot of back and forth scoring with this one getting into the 50's just like in their three previous head-to-head matchups.

Texas-San Antonio's defense improved starting in Week 4. The Roadrunners held their last seven opponents to an average of 21.4 points. Marshall's offense is very unimposing. The Thundering Herd ranked 93rd in scoring and 89th in total yards.

And that was with their regular QB, Cam Fancher. Now Marshall won't have Fancher, who entered the transfer portal. Next man up for Marshall is Cole Pennington. He's a redshirt freshman and the son of Chad Pennington, the former Jets quarterback. Pennington saw action in three games. He threw six interceptions and had no TD passes.

UTSA's offense was decent, but not as good as some expected. The Roadrunners could manage only 16 points against Tulane in their last game.

I don't see many points being scored in this LA Bowl matchup of UCLA vs Boise State. UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country despite playing in the pass-happy Pac-12, which had the best quarterbacks of any conference.

The Bruins rank 15th in scoring defense giving up 18.1 points. They also ranked third in the nation in run defense and 11th in total defense.

Boise State QB Taylen Green was named the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Green transferred to Arkansas following the end of the regular season. So true freshman CJ Tiller will start against the Bruins. Tiller has yet to throw his first college pass. The Broncos also lose Green's rushing threat. He was second on the team in rushing touchdowns with nine. Tiller faces a UCLA pass rush that had the sixth-most sacks in the country with 41.

The Broncos peaked defensively down the stretch holding their last four foes - New Mexico, Utah State, Air Force and UNLV - to an average of 15.7 points.

UCLA has quarterback problems. The Bruins' highly-touted freshman QB, Dante Moore, entered the transfer portal. That leaves Ethan Garbers and Collin Schlee. Both are banged-up and neither has been overly effective. The Bruins could manage just a combined 24 points against California, Arizona and Arizona State during three of the last four games.

This is a low total for a Colts home game. Indy has gone Over in 69 percent of its games under innovative and aggressive Shane Steichen.

The Colts are the eighth-highest scoring team in the NFL at 24.2 points per game. They have scored 27 or more points in five of their last seven games.

I expect the Steelers to keep up. They gained more than 400 yards for the first time this season three weeks ago against the Bengals. It was not a coincidence it was their first game since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. There was a big buzz then about Pittsburgh's improved offense.

The Steelers are more explosive and use better schemes since getting rid of Canada, who seemed to think the only pass worth throwing was an out-of-bounds sideline pass to George Pickens. But the offensive improvement didn't show the past two games because the Steelers had to play in horrible weather conditions against the Cardinals and then went up against New England's upper-tier defense, although still managing 21 points against the Patriots.

Now the Steelers are dropping way down in defensive class facing the Colts, who rank 29th in scoring defense giving up 25.4 points a game. The Colts are 27th in run defense and 25th in total defense.

Mitch Trubisky is just as good as Kenny Pickett. Yes I know that's a low bar. But Trubisky is far more mobile and he has three quality receivers and two reliable running backs to help him out against a bad defense on Indy's fast dome track.

Miami has the most explosive and intriguing offense in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the league in yards and are second in points at 32 per game. They also have had the most plays of plus 25 and plus 50 yard gains.

The Titans would be hard-pressed to keep the Dolphins in check if they had all of their best defensive players. But they will be without their top lineman, Jeffery Simmons, and cornerback, Kristian Fulton. So this sets up as another big-scoring game for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The Titans gave up 34 points to the Jaguars in their last road game.

The Dolphins can come close to covering this Over themselves. But I expect the Titans to contribute their share of points.

Derrick Henry still has some juice left. He entered this week ranked No. 2 in rushing with 841 yards and eight TD's on the ground. Rookie QB Will Levis had proven to be more gunslinger than game manager, averaging 11.8 yards per completion in six starts, which was the third-highest number in the AFC during the last seven weeks.

The Titans lost their reliable punter, Ryan Stonehouse, to a season-ending injury in last week's, 31-28, overtime loss to the Colts. The Colts blocked two Tennessee punts in that game. The Dolphins are sure to have taken notice.

There are multiple bad weather games this week. This isn't one of them. The forecast is for a sunny day with temperatures in the 40's and little wind.

So Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes won't have any restrictions.

The Bills have been more aggressive in playing to Allen's strengths - which is his running and taking downfield shots - since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey two games ago. Buffalo is averaging 33 points since Dorsey departed. They had averaged 20.5 points during their previous six games.

The Chiefs were short-handed at linebacker against the Packers last week after Drue Tranquill suffered a concussion. He's questionable as is Nick Bolton, who has been on the injured list. It's a bonus if those two are unable to play.

Mahomes can take advantage of a beat-up Bills defense that has lost their best linebacker and cornerback for the season.

Jordan Love has had two strong games in a row. That was against the Chargers and Lions. Now he steps up facing a much better defense. Kansas City surrenders the third-fewest points per game at 16.5. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points in a game all season.

The Packers are likely to be missing their best runner again, Aaron Jones. That leaves plodding A.J. Dillon, who isn't 100 percent either because of groin injury, and free agent type of backup runners to handle the ground attack.

Green Bay's defense has been underrated, permitting 18.2 points per game in its last seven games. There's a good chance the Packers get back a number of their injured defensive backs, too, including shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. A healthy Rashan Gary makes a big difference for Green Bay. His snap count has increased as he nears 100 percent. Gary had three sacks against the Lions last Thursday.

The Chiefs have dropped the most passes in the league costing them nearly 300 yards. Expect Kansas City to attack Green Bay's run defense. That means a lot of north/south runner Isiah Pacheco, which is good for the under.

This is a December night game in Green Bay so it will be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with a chance of snow.

The Rams are going from playing a bottom-two defense in Arizona to meeting a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards. Night and day.

Before lighting up the Cardinals' dreadful defense last week, the Rams had averaged 14.2 points in their previous four games. The Rams' passing game isn't as good as it looks on paper with Cooper Kupp being close to a non-factor with only six receptions in his last three games for 77 yards.

The Browns can win this game with their tough defense and ground-control running attack. The only thing that can beat the Browns is turnovers. So look for Cleveland to be ultra-conservative on offense knowing that immobile Joe Flacco will be under center.

The Rams have held their last three opponents - Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers - to a combined average of 16.6 points.

Finally free of obtuse offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers produced a season-high 421 yards against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett wasn't just restricted to throwing sideline passes like before. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards using the middle of the field. Pittsburgh has a strong 1-2 running punch of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to go with one of the better wide receiver tandems, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.

The Steelers weren't utilizing all these weapons properly under Canada. Now they are. Pittsburgh also gets to face a worse defense than Cincinnati - Arizona. Only the Commanders have surrendered more points than the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are more dangerous offensively with Kyler Murray and James Conner back. Going by fantasy football numbers, Murray has been a top-10 quarterback since his return three games ago. The Steelers have yielded the seventh-most yards to wide receivers.

The skill position players on these two teams get the publicity, but the defenses are very good.

Louisville ranks 19th in total defense. The Cardinals catch a major break with Florida State QB Jordan Travis out. The Seminoles could only manage 24 points against Florida last week minus Travis. The Gators had surrendered an average of 41.2 points during their last five games before holding Florida State to 24 points.

Backup Seminoles QB Tate Rodemaker completed fewer than half of his passes for only 134 yards and no touchdowns against the Gators. FSU stud wide receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are far less effective without Travis throwing to them. Florida State is more run-oriented now with Rodemaker under center. Louisville has the 12th stingiest run defense in the nation.  

Florida State has held its last eight opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Seminoles have faced better quarterbacks than Louisville's Jack Plummer.

Note, too, that the game is being played in Charlotte where the weather forecast is for an 80 percent chance of rain. That should ensure more running plays.

There were 69 points scored when the teams met earlier in the season with Washington winning, 36-33, at home. I don't see nearly that many points being scored in this rematch. Not only do the teams know each other much better now, but Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. isn't playing nearly as well. Penix had a 20-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the first six games this season. However, in his last six games Penix has a 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Oregon's defense has picked up the pace, too, holding Arizona State to 13 points and Oregon State to seven points during its last two games. The Ducks have held their last five opponents to an average of 14.4 points. These were quality opponents, too - Utah, California, USC, Arizona State and Oregon State.

Washington has looked better, too, defensively. The Huskies are giving up an average of 23 points in their last three games facing Utah, Oregon State and Washington State.

There's a chance of rain, but no need to be scared off by the weather because wind isn't a factor.

The Bills have the most beat-up defense in the league with numerous injuries, including ones to their top linebacker and cornerback.

The Eagles have one weakness - pass defense where they rank 28th.

Buffalo is in a much better position to have success attacking that weakness with a change in offensive coordinators from fired Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. This change signals that Josh Allen will be reverting back to his old style of running more and the Bills using multiple wide receiver sets with far more pre-snap motion to freeze defenses.

The Bills put up 32 points on a good Jets defense last week in their first game without Dorsey.

The numbers are 64.6 percent completions for 2,389 yards and 15 TD passes. Those numbers belong to Baker Mayfield. Surprised? Mayfield is having a below-the-radar good season. The Buccaneers have no ground attack, but they can effectively air it out.

Mayfield goes from facing the 49ers' daunting defense to drawing Indy's defense that ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game and is 25th in total defense. Mayfield is at his best finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sitting between defenders in zone coverage. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is notorious for his complete reliance on Cover-2 type zone defenses.

Shane Streichen, the Colts' coach and offensive guru, has had extra time to prepare with the Colts off their bye. He should dial up plenty of passes with the Buccaneers ranked second-to-last in pass defense. The Buccaneers' secondary is made more vulnerable with numerous injuries. Out are star linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean. In addition, cornerback Carlton Davis and linebacker Devin White are each questionable.

Maryland has a Tagovailoa as its quarterback. Unfortunately for the Terrapins that quarterback is Taulia Tagovailoa and not his brother, Tua. The Terrapins' offense has tailed off badly in their last six games dealing with Big Ten opponents. 

Maryland is averaging 20 points during its past half dozen games. Rutgers ranks 11th in the nation in fewest yards allowed. The Scarlet Knights give up 19.1 points a game.

Think defense here - typical of the Big Ten - because I'm not overly fond of Rutgers quarterback, Gavin Wimsatt, either. He hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game all season. Rutgers is averaging 7.3 points in its last three games. The Scarlet Knights also play extremely slow, ranking in the bottom-10 in tempo. 

Maryland shut out Rutgers in last season's game. 

This has the potential for being a below-the-radar shootout. Trevor Lawrence is way overdue for a big game and he's dropping way down in class after going against the 49ers last week.

The Titans are weak in the secondary. Their statistics haven't looked bad because in their last three games they've faced the following quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Kenny Pickett and Taylor Heinicke/Desmond Ridder. Lawrence is way more talented than any of those stiff QB's.

Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel should be astute enough to realize that he needs to establish the pass before he can get Derrick Henry going. This is the opposite approach of what the Titans have been under Vrabel.

Rookie Will Levis has a big arm, a still dangerous DeAndre Hopkins and the Jaguars will be minus their best cornerback, injured Tyson Campbell. Jacksonville has the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. So I expect the Titans to contribute their fair share of points here.

Woody Hayes would be proud. Ohio State ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest points allowed at 9.9 per game.

Minnesota is a ground-oriented team. The Gophers rank 125th passing. So they'll be staying on the ground.

The key to making this Under work is how many points will Ohio State produce?

The Gophers have a slightly above average defense. Ohio State has Michigan in its game of the year up next. So the Buckeyes won't want to show much. Just dominate early and get out. That was exactly what they did against Michigan State last week.

Ohio State went up 35-3 against the Spartans. The Buckeyes then took their foot off the gas pedal winning, 38-3.

Not only have these two run-oriented teams improved defensively, but they also have greatly slowed down their pace. 

North Carolina State has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Wolfpack have held their last three opponents - Wake Forest, Miami and Clemson - to a combined average of 9.6 points. The Wolfpack rank 20th in fewest yards allowed per game and are fourth in the nation in takeaways. 

Virginia Tech ranks 22nd in fewest yards allowed. The Hokies held Syracuse to 10 points and Wake Forest to 13 points during two of their past four games. North Carolina State is averaging 18.2 points in its last four games. 

Both teams rate among the top-10 in slowest tempo during their last three games.  

There hasn't been more than 41 combined points scored during North Carolina State's last four games. The average combined score during their Wolfpack's last four games is 31.5 points. Virginia Tech has been held to 17 or fewer points five times this season.

This is a get well game for Washington State's sagging offense. California has surrendered at least 50 points in four games this season. I like Cam Ward to have a strong game for the Cougars against Cal's 127th-ranked secondary.

California should have success passing, too. Washington State ranks 118th in pass defense and 88th in run defense. That should mean a strong game for Jaydn Ott, one of the best running backs in the country.

These teams play at a fast pace, too.

This is too high of a total given that Nevada might be lucky to put up two touchdowns even against a bad Utah State defense. The Wolf Pack have scored 14 or fewer points in five of their nine games. Their QB choice is either ineffective Brendon Lewis untested, raw redshirt freshman, A.J. Bianco. 

Nevada's offensive line has allowed 74 tackles for a loss, fourth-highest in the country. Utah State ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West Conference in tackles behind the line of scrimmage. 

The Aggies are just an average rushing team, but they rank 26th in passing yards. Nevada's defense has shown improvement holding their last three opponents to an average of 17 points. Utah State is turnover prone. The Aggies have thrown 13 interceptions. Only four teams have been picked off more times. 

It's no coincidence the Bengals put up 31 points on the road against a strong 49ers defense last week. Joe Burrow is finally healthy. He looked great. The rest of the Bengals are healthy, too. Joe Mixon actually displayed some explosiveness for the first time this season.

The Bills have played the following QB's in their last three games: Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield. Now they face an elite QB with one of the most banged-up defenses in the NFL. Burrow can exploit Buffalo's long list of key defensive players who are out the way those other QB stiffs couldn't.

Buffalo, in turn, has opened up its offense going back to three wide receiver sets, involving potential star pass-catching rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid more and having Josh Allen run in his reckless fashion. The Bills are playing faster using more no-huddle, all great for the Over.

The weather should be fine for this Sunday night matchup with the forecast calling for temperatures in the low 40's, little wind and clear skies.

The Commanders' already horrific defense just traded defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Those two were maybe their best defenders. The Patriots are minus pass rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Now linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is questionable with a hamstring injury. Those are New England's three top defensive players. 

Yet the total still remains low by today's NFL offensively-enabled numbers. 

Sam Howell has put up good numbers despite being sacked the most of any QB. He has reliable receiving targets. The Patriots have permitted the ninth-most passing TD's and 11th-most receiving yards. New England is tied for the second-fewest sacks with 15. 

Mac Jones should have a strong game because he'll have a clean pocket. The Commanders rank in the bottom-four in scoring defense, defensive total yards and pass defense.

Unless there's bad weather or key skill position injury concerns, this is too low of a total. The weather is going to be fine and Derrick Henry is set to play. DeAndre Hopkins is likely to suit up, too, so I'm going Over.

Rookie Will Levis threw four TD passes against the Falcons in his pro debut last week. While I don't expect Levis to repeat that a second straight week, he's a plus for the Over because of his strong arm. Injured Ryan Tannehill was the lowest rated starting QB in the league. Tannehill had just two TD passes all season. The threat of a downfield Titans passing attack makes Henry more dangerous because Pittsburgh's defense just can't key on him.

There is a big injury - and it's on the Steelers defense. Star free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is out with a hamstring injury. That's another plus for the Over.

I expect Kenny Pickett to get the QB start for Pittsburgh. He has two strong wide receiving targets in George Pickins and Diontae Johnson. If Pickett can't go, I'm fine with Mitchell Trubisky behind center as this is not a huge total to go Over.

This sets up as a get-well game for Justin Herbert, who has had a disappointing season given his high bar. The Bears defense turned dreadful after the team dealt star linebacker Roquan Smith and pass rusher Robert Quinn at midseason last year.

Chicago finished last in scoring defense and 29th in total defense in 2022. This season the Bears are giving up 28.9 points, which ranks 28th, and they are 29th in pass defense. Safety Jaquan Brisker, the Bears' fourth-leading tackler, already has been ruled out and fellow safety Eddie Jackson is questionable with a foot injury. So Herbert is set up for success.

The Bears were able to slow down the Raiders at home last week because Las Vegas' QB's were Brian Hoyer and Aidan O'Connell. I don't see them doing well against Herbert.

Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent draws his second NFL start for Chicago. He showed accuracy - more than Justin Fields - and moxie in helping the Bears defeat the Raiders, 30-12, last week. The Bears should open their playbook more for him this week. It just might be that the Bears found a diamond in the rough.  

The Chargers have the worst pass defense in the league. Their secondary, particularly Derwin James, seems more interested in head hunting than in playing smart football. The Chargers are second-to-last in defensive total yards and 25th in scoring defense allowing 25.8 points per game.

Dak Prescott is off his best game of the season. The Cowboys' offensive line is as healthy as it has been all season and getting more in sync. Dallas has had two weeks to prepare, being on its bye last week. The Rams defense is mediocre at best and is stepping up in class after having just played the Steelers and Cardinals.

So I'm confident the Cowboys will produce their share of points hosting the Rams. Dallas is averaging a whooping 38 points per game in its last seven games at AT&T Stadium.

I expect Matthew Stafford to keep up given that he has a healthy Cooper Kupp along with rookie-of-the-year candidate Puka Nacua, who leads the NFL in receptions with 58. The Rams aren't one-dimensional either. Their ground attack is averaging 157 yards rushing the past two weeks.

Micah Parsons is a dominant player, but Dallas defense is not dominant minus its best cornerback, Trevon Diggs, and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. The Cowboys surrendered 42 points to the 49ers just two weeks ago.

The Rams' field goal kicking can't get worse after they cut Brett Maher, who missed two field goals and an extra point against the Steelers last week.

This total is too high given UCLA's outstanding defense. The Bruins have held foes to an average of 14.9 points a game. They rate No. 2 in run defense and 12th in total defense.

The Bruins could have the best pass rush of any team, too, and Colorado has yielded 35 sacks. Laiatu Latu may be the premier pass rusher in the nation. He has 17 career sacks for the Bruins in 1 1/2 seasons. 

The total is so high because Colorado averages 34.4 points and has a terrible defense. That defense, though, has shown improvement versus the run and is better in the secondary when Travis Hunter plays. He's as good on defense as he is on offense, which is saying a lot.  

UCLA, though, isn't going to take a lot of chances with its quarterbacks. Freshman Dante Moore has been limited in practice due to an injury and Ethan Garbers isn't a gunslinger. Garbers is expected to get the start, which likely means a more conservative game plan from Chip Kelly. 

There's a stand-alone college football game on Friday. That makes this dull American Athletic Conference matchup between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic significant. The marketplace has been active, betting the total up.

It's the wrong move.

Two bad offenses against two mediocre defenses spell Under here especially given the style of play Charlotte employs.

The 49ers are averaging 8.2 points in their last four games. They are the second-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging 14.6 points per game on the season. Their offense has produced 11 TD's in seven games.

Charlotte's QB's have a 4-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That's why the 49ers run the ball more than 60 percent of the time even though they rank 87th in rushing. They play slow, too, ranking in the bottom-10 in tempo.

Florida Atlantic's defense is nothing special. But neither have been the other defenses the 49ers have struggled against.

The 49ers are better on defense. Florida Atlantic is on its second QB after losing Casey Thompson to injury. Daniel Richardson has thrown more interceptions than TD passes. The Owls rank 103rd in rushing yards and 95th in total yards.

If you discount a 56-point explosion against South Florida and its bottom-10 defense, the Owls would be averaging 14.2 points in their last five games.