The Aces held off the Mercury, 89-86, this past Friday night at home. But it took reserve guard Dana Evans' best game of the season for that to happen. Evans scored 21 points, hitting 8-of-13 shots from the floor and five-of-six 3-pointers.

Jewell Loyd also had a big game off the bench for Las Vegas with 19 points. The Aces' bench players outscored Phoenix's reserves, 41-16.

I don't see that happening again. Phoenix has a strong bench, Evans isn't that good and Lloyd has been a major disappointment.

Phoenix had a chance to take the lead with 24.6 seconds left, but Alyssa Thomas missed two free throws.

The Mercury can match Las Vegas' three stars with their own three stars - Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally.

Aces' superstar A'ja Wilson looked tired missing jumpers she normally hits. Statistically, the game was even with Phoenix outrebounding Las Vegas.

Game 2 should be just as tight, so I'll take the points.

The Aces' Becky Hammon and the Mercury's Nate Tibbetts are the two best coaches in the league. So not a huge surprise that their teams are meeting in the WNBA championship series.

Phoenix last played this past Sunday. Las Vegas finished off Indiana at home this past Tuesday. So both coaches have had ample time to devise a strong defensive game plan.

I anticipate a feeling-out process in this opening series game with high intensity and shooting rust factoring in.

The Mercury are a top-five defensive team. They have given up an average of 74.7 points in their seven playoff games. Minnesota had a lot of problems handling Phoenix's physical style.

Las Vegas held Phoenix to an average of 75.2 points per game during its four regular season games.

The Aces ranked second in three-point defense. The Mercury like to work their way inside. They are not a huge perimeter shooting team. Las Vegas center A'ja Wilson is the best defensive player in the league and the top shot blocker. So Phoenix will not get easy baskets.

Home court is strong enough in playoff basketball without any help from the officiating. But in the WNBA playoff home court really means something given how bad the league officiating is.

Minnesota was homered in the title game last year against the Liberty in New York and the Lynx were homered in Game 3 on the road against Phoenix this year.

Las Vegas knows that feeling. The Aces were homered in Game 4 at Indiana this past Sunday losing, 90-83. The Fever shot 34 free throws. The Aces only took 11 free throws.

But now the Aces get the Fever at home. Las Vegas is 17-5 at home. The Aces buried Indiana, 90-68, at home in Game 2 of this series.

A'ja Wilson is the best player in the league. No way does Indiana center Aliyah Boston get the better of Wilson.

The Aces are a much better free throw shooting team than Indiana. The Aces also are healthy, something the Fever are not. The Fever have shown a lot of spunk and guts to go this far in the playoffs despite missing multiple rotation players, including star guard Caitlin Clark.

But I see the Fever running out of gas here. Las Vegas has too strong of a track record at home and are the superior team. It's just a bonus if the Aces get added help by the officiating, which has been blatantly slanted toward home teams in the playoffs.

No Napheesa Collier, no chance for Minnesota. And I doubt Collier plays after suffering shoulder and leg injuries in the Lynx's Game  3 loss to the Mercury.

The Lynx and their coach, Cheryl Reeve, are on tilt following Friday's road loss to Phoenix. Reeve went crazy at the end of the game due to the horrendous officiating.

Minnesota really lost this series when it blew a 20-point lead at home in Game 2. The Lynx haven't recovered.

Phoenix's confidence level is sky high, the Mercury are home and their three stars are playing well.

After getting upset in Game One, the Aces got back on track routing Indiana, 90-68, in Game 2 this past Tuesday.

Just like they did against Atlanta, the Fever got physical. There were 41 fouls called on Tuesday.

This game is expected to be highly physical, too. The Aces, besides being the superior team, are healthy while the Fever are missing several key players.

Las Vegas also is the better free throw shooting team ranking No. 2 in the league. Indiana rates 9th in free throw percentage. That's important in a game in which plenty of free throws are likely to be taken.

The WNBA is wide open this season. Minnesota had the best regular season record and deserves to be favored.

But the Lynx aren't that dominant where they should be in this high of a point spread range.

Phoenix eliminated the defending champion Liberty. The three best players in the WNBA are A'ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier and Phoenix's Alyssa Thomas, who is the Oscar Robertson of the league averaging 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists.

The Mercury took out the Liberty this past Friday night. They then had to play Game One at Minnesota this past Sunday. Despite the scheduling and disadvantage, Phoenix had a 7-point halftime lead and the game was tied at the end of the third quarter.

Phoenix ran out of gas and lost, 82-69.

That shouldn't be the case in Tuesday's Game 2. I also don't expect the Mercury to miss 20 of 23 of their 3-pointers like they did in Game 1.

Note, too, that the Lynx are missing DiJonai Carrington, one of the best defenders in the league and a key rotational part for Minnesota.

Phoenix has its big three healthy - Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Cooper. That makes the Mercury extremely dangerous.

Phoenix is good enough to beat New York at home especially with Liberty superstar Breanna Stewart not nearly 100% because of a knee injury.

The Mercury have their own stars and they came to play in Game 2 at New York with the Mercury winning by 26 points. Phoenix held the Liberty to 60 points, New York's second-lowest total of the season and worst home loss in playoff history.

That was a powerful statement. Phoenix has the stars - Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper - and the confidence now to take down the defending champions.

Indiana put all of its efforts into winning Game 2 at home this past Tuesday. That was the Fever's first playoff win in 10 years.
 
I don't see the injury-ravaged Fever staying within this point spread against Atlanta on the road. Indiana has six players out. 

The Dream beat the Fever by 12 points at home in Game 1 of this playoff series. They are the healthier and superior team.

Atlanta is the best rebounding team in the WNBA and also has the third-best defense. Indiana can't match that.

The Valkyries have proven resilient all season becoming the first WNBA expansion team to make the playoffs. They get tremendous fan support at Chase Center, where their 18,064 arena is sold out.

This should be a tight defensive game with every point mattering. Golden State is eliminated with a loss.

This is what Minnesota superstar Napheesa Collier said about today's matchup: “No one on this team thinks that this is going to be an easy game, by any means. We know it’s going to be a fight. They all work really, really hard. That’s been a staple of their team this entire season, and their home crowd is really great. It’s going to be a really tough game, and we have to make sure that we come with our A-game, especially on defense.”  

The Valkyries should get a better break from the officials than they did in Game 1 at Minnesota being home now and after their coach, Natalie Nakase, complained about the officiating.

Note, too, that Golden state had the second-best point spread mark in the league during the regular season covering 64 percent of their games.

Fever coach Stephanie White promises her team will play better on Tuesday after Indiana lost, 80-68, on the road to Atlanta this past Sunday. A loss eliminates Indiana because this is a best-of-three series.

I am taking White at her word.

The Fever have shown resilience all season. They made the postseason despite having five players lost for the season, including superstar Caitlin Clark.

Atlanta has had a tremendous season. But this is the first time Indiana is hosting a playoff game since 2016. The Fever still have several stars including Kelsey Mitchell. So I'm going to back the Fever taking points in this must-win home spot.

After going 28-5 in their first 33 games and clinching the No. 1 playoff seed, the Lynx are just 5-5 in their last 10 games. They do not have any incentive and they do not have any motivation here.

Minnesota rested superstar Napheesa Collier in its last game not wanting to take a chance on her reinjuring her ankle. There is no reason for the Lynx to play Collier here.

Golden State, however, has incentive. A victory enables the Valkyries to finish in sixth place and meet either the Aces or Dream instead of the Lynx in the first round of the playoffs.

The Valkyries have the second-best point spread record in the WNBA at 27-15-1 (64 percent).

Given their talent, the Storm may be the most underachieving team in the WNBA this season. Seattle needs to win this game in order to clinch the final playoff spot.

Because of that we have an inflated point spread.

The Valkyries are an expansion team, but they haven't played like one. They are in the playoffs and have a chance to be the sixth-seed. Golden State has played hard all season. I don't see that changing here.

Golden State had won five in a row before losing to the league's best team, Minnesota, in its last game this past Saturday. The Valkyries outscored the Lynx in three of the four quarters.

 Seattle has stars in 10-time All-Star Nneka Ogwumike along with Skylar Diggins, Gabby Williams and Ezi Magbegor. Yet the Valkyries have the better record.

Golden State's 25-15-1 (63%) point spread mark is the second-best ATS record in the WNBA. The Storm have the second-worst point spread record in the league at 17-26 (40%) ATS.

LA is a huge favorite here. But by the time this game tips off, the Sparks may have little incentive to play. That's because their slim playoff hopes could end if Indiana beats Washington as expected. That game tips off three hours before the Spark game. So LA's players will know the result. Indiana was favored by six points on the overnight line. Washington has lost eight in a row.
 
The Sparks are on fumes done in by a brutal, late-season schedule. This is their fifth game in eight days. The Sparks just lost to the Dream this past Wednesday and Friday failing to step up in either game. Talent hasn't equaled results for the Sparks.

Dallas has been on West Coast time the past few days. They last played on Thursday against Golden State, easily covering against the playoff-bound Valkyries.

The Sparks didn't get into LA from their 5-hour flight home from Atlanta until Saturday. This is a Sunday afternoon game against a well-rested opponent that will be playing loose with no pressure.

The line is so high because Dallas has the worst record in the WNBA. But the Wings also will have the best player on the court in Paige Bueckers. She has been tremendous in the last two games against the Sparks averaging 36.5 points. The Sparks won those two games by just one point each with the last occurring on August 20th. It took a buzzer beater for the Sparks to nip the Wings, 81-80, as eight- point home favorites.

Look for another close game here. 

The Valkyries accomplished what no expansion team in WNBA history has ever done. They earned a playoff spot by beating Dallas, 84-80, two days ago.

Golden State doesn't have stars. The Valkyries earned their playoff berth by playing hard. But this is a monster let-down spot for them having achieved their playoff goal many didn't think they could reach.

Minnesota is the best team in the WNBA. The Lynx already have clinched the top seed for the postseason. Yet I see Minnesota being the more motivated team here following a 97-87 road loss to the Aces this past Thursday.

Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve was not happy with her team's defensive play in that defeat. Reeve doesn't believe in taking games off. The Lynx have won each of their last 13 times after losing as a favorite. I trust her to have the Lynx motivated and ready to catch the Valkyries in a flat spot.

Golden State is missing several players, including key rotational player, Tiffany Hayes.

Minnesota averages 9 points more per game than Golden State. The Lynx are the healthier team and the superior team. I trust them to cover this number.

Phoenix has gone Under in each of its last five games. Indiana scored only 63 points in its last game.

The oddsmaker has reacted by setting a total too low with this matchup. Early marketplace activity has been to the Over and I agree. Given the star power and that both teams like to push pace, I see this one going Over.

The Fever have scored at least 84 points in five of their last seven games. They remain without superstar Caitlin Clark, but Kelsey Mitchell has been scoring and shooting better than Clark. She's a legitimate star as is low post player, Aliyah Boston.

Indiana also is without Sophie Cunningham. But she is more about grit and glamour than scoring. The Fever are also dropping down in defensive class after playing at the Valkyries in their last game.

Phoenix is healthy and dangerous. Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper are all elite players and scorers. The Mercury, despite their run of Unders, is averaging 84 points per game during their last four games. 

Sparked by the return of offensive rebounding machine Angel Reese, the Sky are averaging 87.6 points in the three games Reece has returned from injury.

Chicago, though, remains the third-worst defensive team in the league. The Sky are allowing 90.7 pts during their last four games, all of which have gone Over.

Las Vegas is the hottest team in the WNBA with 10 straight victories. The Aces are going to get plenty of points here. Superstar A'ja Wilson is in peak form. She has scored at least 30 points in four of her last five games.

The Aces also are getting outstanding scoring production from reserve guard, Dana Evans. She is averaging 19 points in the last two games and won't lack motivation going against her former team.

Connecticut upset Washington as 6-point road 'dogs two days ago. However, that doesn't mean the Sun are a better team than the Mystics. They most certainly are not.

I strongly like Washington to get revenge.

The Mystics have won nine more games than Connecticut. The Sun are last in the WNBA in scoring and last in defensive field goal percentage. They are short-handed in the backcourt with Jacy Sheldon out and Brittney Sykes traded.

Washington is far more talented than Connecticut having Shakira Austin along with star rookies, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

Expect playoff intensity and tremendous defense in this matchup. The Valkyries are aiming to be the first WNBA expansion team to make the postseason in their first year. They are the worst shooting team in the league, yet are 18-15 because of their defense.

Golden State ranks either first or second in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Valkyries are giving up an average 67.4 points per game during their last five games.

Phoenix has more star power than Golden State, but has a below average offense. The Mercury, though, have really come on defensively giving up an average of 72.5 points in their last six games. During the last 10 games, the Mercury ranks No. 2 in the WNBA in defensive efficiency. On the season, the Mercury give up the third-fewest points per game.

The teams meet again on Friday in Phoenix. So they want to establish their defensive intensity in this matchup.

Golden State plays extremely slow, especially at home. The Under has cashed in nine of the Valkyries' past 10 home games including the last seven.

The Sparks have lost just one fewer game than the Mystics, but I find them to be the far superior team especially given Washington's injuries.

So does the oddsmaker making LA a road favorite.

The Sparks have won six of their last seven away games. They also are 2-0 versus the Mystics this season with victories of 19 and 7 points.

Washington may even be in a little letdown spot after upsetting Indiana at home this past Friday.

The Mystics are thin in the frontcourt with center Shakira Austin out with a leg injury and in the back court with Jacy Sheldon sidelined with an ankle injury and with star point guard Brittney Sykes traded. It sets up for a big game for Sparks point guard Kelsey Plum.

Phoenix should be ready for this home game. The Mercury previously played last Sunday when they lost in bad fashion to Atlanta. Previously, though, the Mercury had won and covered three in a row. They have had four full days of practice and game-planning for this matchup.

The Mercury are the No. 2 defensive team in the WNBA allowing an average of 79.5 points a game. They have been playing especially stingy defense lately holding their last four foes  to an average of 66.7 points per game.

High-scoring Satou Sabally has been looking better since missing games because of personal reasons. Veteran and key role player DeWanna Bonner is fitting in much better with Phoenix than she did with the Fever.

The Aces carry a far higher fatigue rating than Phoenix. This marks their fifth game in 10 days. It is also only their second road game this month.

Las Vegas is a below average defensive team.

This is one of the Aces' biggest games  of the year. They should be up to the challenge.

Las Vegas has its confidence up having won four in a row. A'ja Wilson is playing at a high level, which is MVP-caliber. She is averaging 29.3 points, 13 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game since Aug. 3.

The Liberty played a fast-paced game against the Sparks last night. So they have a fatigue issue as this also is their fourth game in six days. New York is without its best player, Breanna Stewart, too.

The combination of revenge and superior defense puts me on the side of the Liberty.

One of the most gut-wrenching losses for the Liberty came at home to the Sparks as an 11-point favorite on July 26th when they lost, 101-99, on a basket at the buzzer.

New York ranks in the top-three in defensive field goal percentage and three-point defense. LA ranks last in the league defensively giving up 87.8 points per game.

There isn't a hotter point spread and scoring team than Los Angeles. The Sparks have won eight of their last nine games and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. They have reached triple-digit scoring in five of their last six games.

The Sparks are healthy, too. The Valkyries can't make that claim. They are without several rotation players,  including their top player Kayla Thornton.

The expansion Valkyries have overachieved all season. But could be hitting a wall this late in the season having lost consecutive games to the struggling Aces.

Golden State cannot match LA's star power of Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby. But the Sparks also are getting so much more from other players. Rickea Jackson has eclipsed 20 points in six of the last eight games. Julie Allemand had a triple-double in LA's last game. Back from injury, center Cameron Brink has combined for 10 blocks in her last three games.

The Sparks are peaking while the Valkyries are falling back. LA averages more than eight points per game than Golden State.

Effort and good coaching can only go so far for the Valkyries. They are running into a hot team that has far more talent than they do. No way the Sparks take the Valkyries lightly either with both teams tied for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Minnesota is coming off a  most impressive, 111-58, road victory against Las Vegas this past Saturday. However, the Lynx foolishly lost their superstar center, Napheesa Collier, in the blowout while being ahead by 43 points. Collier suffered a leg injury that is going to keep her out at least two weeks.

That is really going to hurt the Lynx here on the road against Seattle. The Storm defeated Minnesota, 94-84, at home on June 11th. Collier had a big game in that loss with 25 points, nine rebounds and five assists.

Now take out Collier and Seattle is the better defensive team. Collier was the favorite to win MVP honors based both on her outstanding offense and defense.

The Storm already are 0-2 this month at home losing by a combined six points to Indiana and Los Angeles in overtime. Seattle has covered 82 percent the last 22 times when favored at home in a division game following consecutive losses.

Connecticut has the worst record in the WNBA. But the Sun are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. Connecticut is a good value once again here taking an inflated point spread.

During the last 3 weeks, Phoenix has regressed significantly. The Mercury are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games. They have surrendered 89 or more points in four of their past six games.

Phoenix also has the distraction of playing at home for the first time since July 23rd. This is a kill spot for the Mercury, but they are not playing nearly well enough to cover such a large number.

Connecticut is not good, but the Sun have proven feisty. They are not going to roll over especially playing against long-time former teammate Alyssa Thomas. There will be some pride at stake here.

The defending WNBA champion Liberty have been pointing to this game for more than a week after they were upset as 8-point road favorites by the Wings on national TV eight days ago.

The motivation and setting is ripe for the Liberty to get their revenge in double-digit fashion.

The rebuilding Wings just traded away DiJonai Carrington, one of their few good defensive players. Even with Carrington, Dallas was a bottom-three defensive team.

The Wings rank second to last in 3-point defense. That bodes well for long range shooting star Sabrina Ionescu, who has been hot.

New York remains without superstar Brianna Stewart, but did shore up its frontcourt, signing veteran Emma Meesseman to go with star center Jonquel Jones.

Dallas has played its last four games at home. The Wings are 1-4 straight up and against the spread in their last five road games.

Aces coach Becky Hammon has made starting lineup changes that have upgraded the defense at the expense of offense. This was evident in the Aces' last game, an 89-74 road win against the high-scoring but defensively-weak Sparks this past Tuesday. That total went Under by 12 1/2 points.

Las Vegas has given up 80 or fewer points in four of its last five games. The Aces' defensive intensity should be way up. They are playing at home in a double revenge spot for two blowout road losses to Minnesota.

The Lynx are the top defensive team in the WNBA. They ranked first in scoring defense and second in both defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They've held the Aces to an average of 70 points in two games this season.

Every point should matter here as this figures to be a very low-scoring game as the total indicates.

Chicago has lost six in a row. However, this is a step down in class for the Sky as five of those losses were against above average teams - Minnesota twice, Indiana, Seattle and Atlanta. Those were all above average teams with Minnesota being probably the best team in the WNBA right now.

Kayla Thornton is the Valkyries' best player. She is out for the season, though. Golden State also may be without Monica Billings and Cecilia Zandalasini. Neither played last night. This marks the Valkyries' fourth road game in six days and second in two nights. They are fat and happy with consecutive upset victories against Washington and Atlanta.

With a short rotation, a heavy fatigue rating and playing on the road against what should be a motivated Sky team, this is an extremely bad spot for the Valkyries. So I will take the points with the Sky.

The overachieving Valkyries face a tough road challenge here going against the Mystics, who are treating this as their game of the year. The winner of this game holds the eighth and final playoff spot.

After a slow start, Washington is 5-3 in its last eight games. The Mystics are 9-5 at home. The Valkyries are 4-9 away from home.

The league has caught up to the Valkyries. They are not going to catch any teams by surprise anymore. It's especially hard for the Valkyries without their best player, All-Star Kayla Thornton. Rotation player Monique Billings isn't likely to play either due to an ankle injury.

Take out Thornton and the Mystics have the four best players on the court with All-Stars Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen and Brittany Sykes along with Shakira Austin.

Atlanta is 15-11, a much more sound team than 8-19 Dallas. The Dream rank in the top-five both offensively and defensively. The Wings are inconsistent on offense and a bottom-three defensive team.

Given the quality of the two teams and the scheduling dynamics, I find this point spread to be too low. So I am backing Atlanta.

The Dream nearly came back from a 13-point fourth quarter deficit last night before losing at home to Golden State. Atlanta was an 8 1/2-point favorite against the Valkyries.

The prideful Dream does not want to lose consecutive games to these opponents, who are well below their caliber.

The Wings did not play last night. However, they nevertheless carry a heavy fatigue ranking. This is Dallas's fourth game in six days and third game in four days. It's also a letdown spot for the Wings.

Dallas upset the defending champion Liberty two days ago at home. That was a great victory for the Wings, their best of the season. It has to be noted, though, that New York did not have superstar Breanna Stewart in that game.

The Sparks have been the hottest scoring team in the WNBA lately. LA is averaging 97.2 points in its last five games. The Over has cashed in each of LA's last seven games.

But the dynamics are going to change for the Sparks starting with this game. It's a big reason why I'm on the Under.

Cameron Brink, the 2024 No.2 overall pick who tore her ACL and meniscus last season, is set to make her season debut for the Sparks. Brink is a top-notch defender and shot-blocker. But on the offensive end there is going to be an adjustment. The Sparks will have to slow the tempo down when Brink, a post-up player, is on the floor.

The Aces have been playing better defense, holding three of their last four foes to 80 points or fewer. Las Vegas has been down offensively this season ranking below average in many major categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting.

Jewel Loyd hasn't come close to matching departed Kelsey Plum's points and assists. The Aces also have started to give him more minutes to Kristen Bell, a high-energy, tenacious defender who contributes little on offense.

This is a rivalry matchup, too, so the defensive intensity should be way up.

Golden State is 3-8 on the road. The Valkyries are traveling cross country after beating the Wings at home two days ago. This is an early start time, which is a big negative for the Valkyries.

It is also the Valkyrie's second game without injured All-Star Kayla Thornton, their best player.

Connecticut actually has the two best players on the court in Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey, who is back from injury.

The Valkyries have a bottom-three offense and that was with Thornton. The situation is bad for them and they don't have enough offense to cover a road number as a midsize favorite.

It has been a difficult and disappointing season for the Aces. But I will take double digits with them as they are a desperate and prideful team following an 80-70 road loss to the Fever on Thursday.

The one good news for the Aces in that defeat was superstar A'ja Wilson played fewer than 30 minutes. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammond intentionally kept her minutes down in anticipation of this huge matchup. I regard Wilson as the top player in the WNBA.

The Lynx have the stronger bench. But Las Vegas actually has more star power with Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.

The Aces have put together a little three-game win streak. The victories have been against the Valkyries at home in narrow fashion, versus the 7-17 Wings and an impressive home victory against the Dream two days ago. 

But make no mistake about it. The Aces are down from last season and way down from their championship form of two seasons ago. 

The Fever hosted Las Vegas three weeks ago. They buried the Aces, 81-54, despite not having Caitlin Clark. Clark remains out. That is not necessarily a huge negative though for Indiana. Bothered by injuries, Clark's shooting has been way off this season. 

Indiana is talented without Clark. They have a pair of All Star-caliber players, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, and a deeper bench than Las Vegas. 

While the Aces are a bit fat and happy, Indiana will be highly motivated after three consecutive road games, including back-to-back disappointing away losses to the Liberty.

Most of the action is on the Mercury. It's easy to understand why since Atlanta played at Las Vegas on Tuesday night and lost, 87-72. The fatigue factor won't be nearly that great, however, since the Dream previously had played last Wednesday.

The Mercury have not played in a week. So the Dream are going to be far less rusty than Phoenix. The Mercury are one of the most improved teams in the league. But so is Atlanta with a 13-10 record.

The Dream are the best rebounding team in the WNBA. They also give up fewer points per game than Phoenix.

Washington had won three in a row until losing on the road against the Sparks last Tuesday. That marked the Mystics' fourth game in eight days and final game before the all-star break. Los Angeles took advantage to win 99-80 at home.

The Mystics are the superior team, are home now and have revenge motivation going. The Sparks rank in the bottom-three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and three-point defense. Washington gives up nearly seven fewer points per game than Los Angeles.

The Sparks have the second-worst record against the spread at 8-13-1 ATS. LA's 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games.

No team has been playing better defense in the WNBA during the first two weeks of this month than Washington. The Mystics were giving up 72 points a game during their last three games until their final game before all-star break when they surrendered 99 points on the road to the Sparks last Tuesday.

The rested Mystics should play with great defensive intensity in a revenge setting at home. They know one of the keys to victory is not running with the Sparks. So I see a slower paced game here.

There is a possibility the Sparks get promising second-year center Cameron Brink for this game. Brink has been out all season recuperating from a knee injury suffered last season. If Brink were to play, it would be an added bonus for the Under.

Team Collier has a much better up and down roster than Team Clark. This is especially so since Team Clark will be down two starters. Satou Sabally is out and so is Caitlin Clark. Sabally and Clark are two of the four best players on Team Clark.

Not only does Team Collier have better starters with Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart, Allisha Gray, Nneka Ogwumike and Paige Bueckers, but their bench is much stronger than Team Clark.

Team Clark can't match Team Colliers bench production of Angel Reese, Alyssa Thomas, Kelsey Plum and Skylar Diggs. 

A'ja Wilson is back healthy for Las Vegas. While Wilson is a dominant scorer her rebounding, shot blocking and ability to come up with steals also makes her a dominant defensive force. The Aces rank 9th in scoring and our 11th in shooting percentage. Las Vegas really misses the spark, outside shooting and playmaking skills of Kelsey Plum. Jewel Lloyd has yet to get comfortable in Las Vegas' offense. 

The Wings are averaging 77 points in their last three games. There are a number of stars playing in this game. But they're scoring hasn't matched their reputations recently. 

I see more defense being played in this game than perceived.

I want the Storm at home in double revenge going for me against the expansion Valkyries. The Valkyries have already exceeded their season over/under win total with a 10-11 record.

However, the Valkyries are 1-4 in their last five games. They are at least one level lower than the 13-9 Storm.

It is a source of frustration for the Storm to have lost twice to Golden State last month. Seattle has a huge talent edge with three All Stars - Skylar Diggins, Nneka Ogwumike and Gabby Williams. The Valkyries' bottom-three offense can't match that firepower.

Golden State has been a major surprise, but the Valkyries are struggling now as this is the final game before the All-Star break for the teams.

The efficient Storm rate third in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Seattle was upset by Washington at home in its last game. The Storm certainly don't want to go into the All-Star break having suffered consecutive home upset losses.

Connecticut is going for its fourth straight cover. I see the Sun getting it hosting Indiana.

The Fever have a much bigger game on deck when they play the defending WNBA champion Liberty on Wednesday in New York.

The Sun are the worst team in the league but won't lack motivation. This is a special nationally televised game from TD Garden in Boston, home of the Celtics. Connecticut will not want to be embarrassed.

There is bad blood between these two teams. The Fever blew out the Sun when the teams last met on June 17th in Indiana. There were 43 fouls called and three players were ejected. There was a near fight with Sophie Cunningham standing up for Caitlin Clark, who was poked in the eye and then pushed.

Connecticut is 4-2 against the spread in its last six home games, including upsetting Atlanta and Seattle straight up during this span.

The Sun are the lowest scoring team in the WNBA. They also rank last in shooting percentage and 3-point percentage. Connecticut has scored fewer than 69 points in five of its last eight games. The Sun's defense intensity should be sky high for this game, though, with Caitlin Clark and the Fever as their opponent.

Clark has been in a huge shooting slump, while the Sun's Marina Mabrey has missed the last eight games because of a knee injury. Mabrey averages 15.2 points per game, second on the team to Tina Charles, who averages 15.4 points a game.

The Fever are an above average defensive perimeter team. They rank 5th in defensive field goal percentage and are third in three-point defensive percentage.

Indiana is giving up an average of 74.5 points a game in six games this month.

Minnesota is the best team in the WNBA with an 18-4 record, but the Lynx haven't shown it lately losing two of their past three games. The latest occurred in their last game, 87-81, on the road to Chicago this past Saturday.

It's rematch time on Monday with the Lynx again meeting the Sky in Chicago.

These teams certainly are familiar with each other now. The Lynx are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. They shouldn't lack defensive intensity and motivation. Minnesota also plays at the second-slowest pace.

Minnesota gives up 75.3 points a game, best in the WNBA. The Lynx also rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They've held their opponent to 75 points or fewer in 12 of their last 18 games. The Sky are the second-lowest scoring team in the WNBA and rank ninth in shooting percentage.

Chicago has been better defensively holding their last four foes to an average of fewer than 80 points a game. They have two excellent low-post players and rebounders in Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. They can keep Minnesota's superstar center Napheesa Collier in check.

The Mystics are at least one level lower than the Storm. Plus they are on the road. Washington is 0-3 playing on the West Coast this season.

Seattle is 7-3 in its last 10 games with eight of its past nine victories coming by 7 or more points.

Washington enters this matchup fat and happy going 2-0 on its homestand beating the Aces and Sky. Before those two games, the Mystics played twice on the road losing to the Lynx and Wings by an average of 12.5 points.

The Mystics rank second-to-last in scoring and are below average defensively. The Storm are above average defensively and rank third in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. They are a far more efficient team than Washington.

This is the first meeting between the two teams this season. The Storm went 3-1 versus the Mystics last year with their average victory margin being 15.6 points.

Caitlin Clark being hurt and the surprisingly bad coaching of Stephanie White, who was supposed to be a huge upgrade on Christie Sides, have left the Fever with a disappointing 9-10 record. That puts Indiana 3 1/2 games behind New York and 2 1/2 games behind Atlanta in the Eastern Conference.

It also makes this a crucial home matchup for the Fever against Atlanta today. Indiana is capable. The Fever have assembled enough talent to make them a legitimate WNBA championship contender. They upset the Lynx, the best team right now in the league, to win the Commissioner's Cup.

It's a revenge game and a circle-the-wagons game for the Fever after a disappointing, 80-61, home loss to the Valkyries two days ago. The good news for Indiana from that defeat was Clark returned after a five-game absence and got the rust off and rookie Makayla Timpson looked like she could become a solid rotation player scoring 10 points, six rebounds, three steals and two blocks.

The Dream attack the perimeter. That's a major strength. But the Fever have the antidote to combat that with Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard. Boston is one of the best low-post players in the league.

Both Las Vegas and New York are down from last season. The Liberty have an excuse - they've been without star center Jonquel Jones for their last nine games. Minus Jones, the Liberty are giving up 88.1 points a game. That would rank second-to-last if it were for the entire season.

The Aces haven't been right defensively all season ranking ninth in scoring and defensive field goal percentage, 10th in 3-point defense and 11th in defensive rebounding out of the 13 teams.

Each team, though, has multiple star scorers and plenty of pride. So I see a shootout here. 

A'ja Wilson is averaging 23.1 points and 48.7 percent shooting from the floor since returning from injury seven games ago. The Aces are the best free throw shooting team in the league. Wilson should have a big game without Jones to impede her progress. 

Sharpshooter Sabrina Ionescu has picked up her 3-point shooting. So she should have a big scoring game, too, along with superstar teammate Breanna Stewart.

The Mercury have short revenge after being upset, 98-89, by the Wings as 11 1/2-point road favorites four days ago. 

The teams haven't played since, but much has changed - on the Phoenix side.

The Mercury won't have their two best scorers, Satou Sabally (ankle) and Kahleah Cooper (hamstring. Those two average nearly a combined 33 points a game. Their absence means more minutes for role players Natasha Mack, Murjanatu Musa and Kitija Laksa, who are not known for their offense. 

The Wings have improved their defense. The Mercury should be primed for a strong, intense defensive effort, too. I'm not expecting a fast pace either in this matchup as the Mercury will be much more deliberate in their offensive sets without two of their stars.

The Sparks have star power led by Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby. Despite those two and other good scorers, Los Angeles has the second-worst record in the WNBA at 5-13. The major reasons for that are bad defense and lack of rebounding.

Indiana can take advantage of that even missing Caitlin Clark for another game. Kelsey Mitchell is averaging 22 points in the last five games. The Fever can exploit the Sparks on the boards, too, with All-Star center Aliyah Boston and veteran forward Natasha Howard.

The Fever shouldn't have any letdown following a 27-point home win against the Aces from Thursday. That's because the Sparks defeated them as six-point road 'dogs, 85-75, on June 26. Indiana shot just 37 percent from the floor and made only 7 of 28 3-pointers.

The Sparks have surrendered 85 or more points in 10 of their last 13 games. Los Angeles, though, has scored 85 or more points in three of its last four games.

Los Angeles ranks second-to-last in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Sparks are giving up an average of 86.8 points a game.

New York, though, is even worse if you go by the last seven games. Missing their best rebounder and tough interior defender, injured Jonquel Jones, the Liberty are surrendering 90.7 points per game during their past seven games. If that was computed for the entire season, the Liberty would rank last defensively in the WNBA.

The Sparks have the offensive firepower to take advantage with Dearica Hamby, Kelsey Plum and Azura Stevens, one of the most underrated players in the league. LA has scored at least 85 points in each of its last three games.

The prideful defending champion Liberty are back home having been on the road for their last four games. They are 1-4 in their past five games. The Liberty are in stop-the-pain mode. They've been idle since Sunday.

I'm expecting a huge scoring game from the Liberty led by Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. Stewart is the WNBA's third-leading scorer and Ionescu is the 10th-leading scorer. The Sparks lack the defense to stop them.

This game doesn't count on the regular season standings. But the intensity level should be even higher because this is the championship game of the WNBA Commissioner's Cup. The winner earns $500,000, which isn't chump change especially to WNBA players.

Caitlin Clark has missed Indiana's last two games because of a groin strain. She's questionable. I like the Under with or without Clark. The injury obviously has caused her shooting to be off. Clark has missed an unbelievable 22 of her last 23 3-pointers.

Minnesota is the No. 1 defensive team in the league surrendering just 74.2 points per game. The Lynx also rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Lynx center Napheesa Collier is the incumbent Defensive Player of the Year. That's bad news for Fever center Aliyah Boston, who has reached star level and is averaging 21 points during her past five games.

If Clark is limited and Boston is controlled by Collier, the Fever will be severely impacted offensively. The Lynx are a deliberate team so the pace shouldn't be fast.

Having added top-12 stars Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas to holdout Kahleah Cooper, the Mercury have the potential to be a huge scoring team. That potential has started to manifest itself.

Phoenix is the hottest team in the WNBA having won six in a row. The Mercury are hitting their scoring stride averaging 100.6 points in their last three games with two of those games occurring against one of the best defensive teams in the league, New York. 

Now the Mercury get the desperate and defensively-challenged Aces at home. Las Vegas is ninth defensively and 11th in defensive field goal percentage. If the Aces are going to even their record at 8-8 with an upset of the Mercury, they're going to have to do it on the offensive end. 

The Aces are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the WNBA. Yet they got to shoot only 12 free throws at home against the Mystics, in a 94-83 loss this past Thursday. 

A'Ja Wilson still is the best player in the league - and she's highly frustrated. The Mercury have allowed an average of 23.3 free throws during their last three games. Look for the Aces to feed Wilson. The Aces know the only way to stay with the Mercury is to go at them hard with Wilson and match them on the offensive end because their defense isn't good enough. 

The Aces have the firepower to do this with Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd.

The Mystics are playing their best ball of the season winning four of their last five games, including the past three. They tied for the best point spread record last season and have covered six of their last eight games. 

I like the Mystics to beat the Wings today. 

Dallas is playing on consecutive days for the first time this season. The Wings had a huge game last night selling out American Airlines Center with 20,409 fans in attendance to watch them host Indiana. The Fever didn't have Caitlin Clark, but still beat Dallas, 94-86. The Wings played well in spurts. They just aren't a good team. 

The Wings have one win against an above .500 team. That was against Atlanta. The only other teams the Wings have defeated are the expansion Valkyries and Connecticut, which has the worst record in the WNBA at 2-14. 

I don't see the Wings being up for this game like they were last night. They aren't good enough to beat the Mystics unless they play well. 
The Mystics have taken off since center Shakira Austin returned from injury. Austin is averaging 20.2 points and 9.2 rebounds in her last four games.

The Mystics have excellent depth. Their leading scorer, guard Brittney Skyes, has been out. But Sug Sutton and Lucy Olsen have done a good job filling in. 

Paige Bueckers is going to be the rookie-of-the-year. But Washington has the next two best rookies in Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

It was no fluke the Mercury upset the Liberty, 89-81, as 11 1/2-point road 'dogs eight days ago. Phoenix is playing much better than New York.

The Mercury are home and at full strength while the Liberty remains without injured star and their top rebounder, Jonquel Jones (ankle), and key rotation player Leonie Fiebich (playing for Germany).

The Mercury are the hottest team in the league with five straight victories. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

The Liberty are 2-3 in their last five games, 0-5 ATS. This is their third consecutive road game and third game in six days. They barely held off the expansion Valkyries two days ago winning, 81-78.

Phoenix has its three stars healthy - Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Cooper. The Mercury are averaging 89.6 points during their past five games. New York is averaging 80.3 points in its last three games.

The timing is perfect for the Mercury to make a major statement at home by knocking off the reeling defending league champions.

The expansion Valkyries are an amazing 7-6. They are only two wins away from going Over their season win total. Golden State doesn't have a winning record because of its offense.
 
The Valkyries are the worst 3-point shooting team in the WNBA and rank second-to-last in field goal percentage. The Valkyries, though, are disciplined, well-coached and intense on defense rating fifth in the league and third in defensive field goal percentage. Golden State has held its last six opponents to an average of only 72.6 points. 

Golden State doesn't come close to having the star power New York does. But the Liberty could be without two of their three biggest stars. Jonquel Jones is out with an ankle injury. Sabrian Ionescu is questionable after she missed the Liberty's last game with a neck injury.

The Liberty lost that game to the Storm three days ago. They are going to be up for this game because of that. 

Even though Breanna Stewart and Ionescu are great scorers, the Liberty has the best defensive rating in the WNBA. New York gives up the second-fewest points per game at 76.3 and is first in defensive field goal percentage. 

The two teams met twice late last month. Both games went Under. The Liberty held the Valkyries to an average of 72 points during those games, both victories.

Retooled Indiana was supposed to be good enough to challenge for the WNBA title this season. Through 13 games, it hasn't gone that way for the 6-7 Fever.

Caitlin Clark is back from injury, but has missed 16 of 17 3-point shots during the past two games. The Fever lost each of those games falling to the expansion Valkyries and the Aces, who are below .500 themselves. Things are not looking up for the Fever as they play their third road game in a row taking on hot Seattle.

The Storm are playing their best ball winning six of their last seven games. Seattle has defeated much better teams than the Fever during this span, including the Lynx and defending champion Liberty although New York was missing two of its three best players in that game, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.

This point spread is too low considering the circumstances. Seattle has won three in a row. The Storm's confidence is up and they are home. Nneka Ogwumike may be the hottest player in the WNBA averaging 25.7 points in her last three games. Skylar Diggins is an elite guard and Gabby Williams is the most underrated player in the league. Opponents get sky high for the Fever because of the presence of Clark and the media attention she brings.

The timing is bad right now for Indiana. Stephanie White was supposed to be a huge coaching upgrade on Christie Sides. White hasn't cleaned that low bar yet. White already has missed a couple of games due to personal reasons. Not a good look with this being her first year coaching the Fever.

Morale is not good for the Fever. Critics are saying White isn't running the right offense for Clark. The Fever was supposed to have upgraded their bench. But core veteran DeWanna Bonner is out for personal reasons and the reserves have been underwhelming during the current road trip.  

Clark and White are proven winners. They likely will get their ship back on the right course. But for now, they can't be backed.

The expansion Valkyries have been a major storyline in the WNBA going 6-6. They are the biggest overachievers in the league.

Now, for the first  time, the Valkyries are favored. And it's by a huge number.

Connecticut is way down this season. But the Sun are a prideful team having gone deep into the playoffs the past few years. They still have some star power with Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles. That gives the Sun the two best players on the court.

Golden State has never been in this position before as big chalk. I prefer the Valkyries as underdogs. They are well-coached and scrappy. However, they do not have much talent on their team. Their roster is full of good role-type players rather than stars.

It's a sandwich spot, too, for the Valkyries. They are off a hugely-satisfying, 88-77, home win against the Fever and Caitlin Clark. The Valkyries host the defending champion Liberty in their next game. So they can be excused if they don't approach this matchup with their normal intensity. If the Valkyries aren't playing well, I don't see them covering a game in this point spread range.

This isn't the best of spots for Atlanta. The Dream are back home for the first time in a week. They just lost to the Liberty, 86-81, in a marquee road game this past Tuesday.

After this game, the Dream host the Sky in a Sunday day matchup. That's a bigger game for Atlanta because of the Sky being so high-profile with Angel Reese.

The Mystics have rapid revenge for an embarrassing, 89-56, home loss to the Dream five days ago. Washington shot only 30 percent from the floor and missed 14 of 17 3-point tries.

That's the only game of their last four games Washington hasn't covered. The Mystics received a confidence boost with a 79-72 road victory against the Sky three days ago in their last game. Center Shakira Austin had her best game of the season for Washington. She's an underrated, key player for the Mystics.

The Mystics haven't been good offensively, but they are above average defensively and are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team.

New York is the highest-scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.1 points a game. The Liberty has been amazingly consistent on the offensive end scoring at least 85 points in 10 of their 11 games.

The Liberty, though, has allowed an average of 91.5 points during their last two games. Those games were against the Dream and Fever, both of whom have mulitple offensive stars in their lineup. Phoenix also has stars in its lineup.

The Mercury greatly upgraded their roster during the off-season bringing in Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to join Kahleah Cooper. The Mercury are averaging 84 points in their last three games. Their offense is picking up with Cooper back after being out. 

Phoenix did play last night, defeating Connecticut. Prior to that, though, the Mercury had not played in three days. They should be up for this marquee matchup after failing to cover as double-digit favorites against the Sun.

Not only is Connecticut 2-9 and arguably the worst team in the WNBA. But the Sun have to play on consecutive days, something extremely rare in the WNBA. 

The Sun have to do this, too, traveling and off a physical, dirty game on the road against Indiana last night. There were multiple technical fouls called in the game and two Connecticut players were ejected, Jacy Sheldon and Lindsay Allen. A third Connecticut player, Marina Mabrey, should have been ejected for shoving Caitlin Clark to the floor.

Tina Charles played a game-high 30 minutes. The 36-year-old Charles is Connecticut's best front-court player. You have to think she could be rested for this matchup.

All in all, it's simply one of the worst spots of the season for one of the worst teams.

Phoenix loaded up during the off-season getting Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to join holdover star Kahleah Cooper, who is back healthy. Thomas and Sabally are among the best dozen players in the league. Thomas should be especially motivated returning to Connecticut having played 11 years for the Sun. 

The Mercury are 8-4, finding their stride with a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. They last played on Sunday.

At 5-5, the expansion Valkyries are way ahead of their projected season win total of 8 1/2. Natalie Nakase would get my vote for Coach of the Year if the season ended today.

Unfortunately for Golden State it doesn't.

Things are about to get a lot worse for the Valkyries. That's because EuroBasket 2025 starts Wednesday. Golden State will be missing four of its top seven players because of it. The Valkyries will be missing two of their three best players - Temi Fagbenle, who is competing in EuroBasket, and injured Tiffany Hayes - not to mention losing much of their depth.

The timing for this game couldn't be better for Dallas. The Wings are in dire condition at a league-worst 1-11 after blowing an 11-point lead against the Aces with 3:34 left during their last game, this past Friday.

Dallas is the biggest underachievers in the league. First-year coach Chris Koclanes is coming under heavy fire. This is a true circle-the-wagons game for the Wings.

Dallas has the talent. Paige Bueckers is living up to the high expectations of being the No. 1 overall draft pick and future superstar. She's averaging 17.4 points, 6.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Arike Ogunbowale was the MVP of last year's All-Star game. DiJonai Carrington gives the Wings the three best players on the court.

It's not a surprise Phoenix is a road favorite against Las Vegas. The Aces are way down from their championship team of two seasons ago and are without reigning league MVP, A'Ja Wilson. She remains sidelined being in concussion protocol. Wilson's importance can't be stressed enough. She leads the Aces in points (20.9), rebounds (9.6 rebounds) and assists (4.0). She also prevents opponents from driving the lane with her defense and shot-blocking.

The Aces had not been playing well even with Wilson. Their only victory against an above .500 team was against the 6-5 Storm.

Phoenix has the second-best record in the Western Conference at 7-4. The Mercury rank fourth defensively giving up 78.3 points a game. By contrast, the Aces rank ninth defensively permitting 84 points a game and now they don't have Wilson.

The 1-11 Wings, the worst team in the league, put up 84 points against the Aces despite scoring only two points during the final four minutes. The Aces exerted tremendous energy in coming from way behind to beat the Wings at home two days ago. They still could be tired from that game since it was their first full game minus Wilson. Rested Phoenix has been idle since Wednesday.

The Fever aren't the only team that looks much improved this season in the WNBA. Atlanta is looking like a top-five team and has a better record than Indiana.

The Dream had won four in a row, the latest being an impressive road victory against the Storm, until losing their last game. That was a stunning upset to the Sun this past Friday.

Atlanta is not in letdown mode for this one. Quite the opposite. The Dream have had four days to stew about that defeat. They should be heavily motivated to take on the Fever, who not only will be missing superstar Caitlin Clark, but also Sophie Cunningham.

Indiana isn't in Atlanta's class without Clark. The Fever are 2-2 minus Clark beating the Mystics and Sky, whose combined record is 6-13, while scoring victories against the Sun and Mystics. Atlanta is the best team the Fever are facing without Clark.

The Fever are hoping to have Clark back for their following game, which is a nationally televised home game against the defending champion Liberty on Saturday. That's the game the Fever are pointing to.

Not only do the Sparks possess a huge talent edge against the Valkyries, but this also is a good situational spot for Los Angeles. 
Golden State could still be on Cloud 9 after stunning the Aces, 95-68, at home this past Saturday. That was the first-year Valkyries' biggest win in their short existence. 

It also puts the Valkyries in a letdown spot against the revenge-minded Sparks. Los Angeles lost to Golden State, 82-73, as 10 1/2-point home favorites on May 23. 

There isn't one player on expansion Golden State that I would rank above LA's top five players - Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby, Azura Stevens, Rickea Jackson and Odyssey Sims. Those players have made LA the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA at 93.3 points a game. That's 16.3 points per game more than what the Valkyries average.

The marketplace has been betting this total down. It's low enough now for me to get involved in the Over. 

These teams opened the season against each other on May 18. Washington won, 90-85. That's a combined 175 points.

So what has happened lately? 

The Sun are showing offensive improvement. If you discount a beatdown they suffered against the defending champion and best team in the league, Liberty, they are averaging 85.3 points in their last three games. Connecticut just played its best game of the season, beating the Dream, 84-76, two days ago. 

The Mystics are an up-tempo team. They haven't played good defense, giving up 86, 85 and 85 points during their past three games. They aren't shooting well either. That should change here, though, as Connecticut ranks 10th in scoring defense, last in defensive field goal percentage and second-to-last in 3-point defensive percentage.

Given their star power, the Storm have been underachieving on the offensive end ranking ninth in scoring. Seattle last played on Tuesday. The Storm have used this extra practice time to work on their offense. I'm expecting that to show in this matchup.

The Mercury are averaging 88.3 points a game during their last three games, not including two games against the Lynx, the No. 2 defensive team in the WNBA.

Seattle is better than average on defense, but not in the Lynx's class.

Now that Paige Bueckers has been ruled out again due to a concussion, I feel confident backing the Sparks against the Wings here.

Los Angeles holds a talent edge, especially with Dallas missing Bueckers, who I already consider the Wings' best all-around player.

While Bueckers remains out, the Sparks are getting back Rickea Jackson. She's one of the team's better players. The Sparks are in circle-the-wagons mode at 2-6 and with a three-game losing streak. The Sparks have been idle since Sunday giving them ample time to prepare and game plan.

The Sparks rank 10th defensively allowing 84.1 points per game. Yet their defense still is better than the Wings, who rate 11th allowing 88.5 points a game. Dallas was terrible defensively last year and the team still hasn't fixed its defensive woes.

LA is the more talented and healthy team. The spot sets up for the Sparks, too. So it's not too much to ask them just to win the game by laying extra juice with a money line play.

New York is the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.5 points per game. The Liberty also are first in field goal and 3-point shooting percentage.

Washington doesn't have the defense to stop New York. Washington has allowed 85 points in each of its last two games.

The Mystics like to play up-tempo, which is the style of their first-year coach, Sydney Johnson. The Liberty will be fresh to play at a fast pace having been idle for the last three days after scoring 100 points against Connecticut in their last game.

Washington has scoring talent. The Mystics are overdue for a big offensive showing.

Since losing superstar Caitlin Clark to a quad strain, Indiana has gone 0-2. The Fever lost to Washington, 83-77, as a four-point road favorite last Wednesday and then was humbled by Connecticut - the worst team in the WNBA - with an 85-83 loss as a double-digit home favorite last Friday.

The Fever had veteran guards Sophie Cunningham and Sydney Colson when they lost to the Mystics last week. Now those two aren't expected to play because of injuries joining Clark on the sidelines. It leaves the Fever so thin at guard that they had to apply to the league to get an emergency hardship in order to sign guard Aari McDonald.

So not are the Fever going to be missing Clark and her across the board production and leadership - 19 points a game, 9.3 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 31.4 percent shooting from 3-point range - but they are down to their fourth-string point guard.

Washington is not a patsy. The Mystics tied for the best point spread record in the league last year at 25-14-1 (64 percent) and has a winning point spread record this season. They have the best guard on the court by far with Clark out in Brittney Sykes and a pair of rookie-of-the-year candidates, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

The Mystics are physical and they like to run. The Fever are going to have problems staying with them minus Clark.

The Aces' offense is coming around with newcomer Jewell Loyd joining stars A'Ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. The Aces just produced 96 points against the Sparks two days ago. Wilson is the third-leading scorer in the WNBA.

Seattle is giving up an average of 86 points per game in its last three games.

However, the Aces' defense still remains a work in progress. Las Vegas ranks 9th defensively surrendering an average of 81.8 points a game. The Aces rank second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. The Storm have the star power to take advantage.

Seattle proved that last Sunday when it buried Las Vegas, 102-82. While the Storm are not going to hit 60 percent of their shots from the floor like they did against the Aces last week, I do believe there will be enough scoring from both teams to easily sail above the number, which the marketplace has bet down into even more of a reasonable number.

The Liberty are the defending WNBA champions. They are 5-0 this season. But I don't find the Liberty that great right now, especially without star center Jonquel Jones. She missed Thursday's home game against the expansion Valkyries because of a hamstring injury. New York only beat the Valkyries by five points. Golden State was down by just one point with less than 25 seconds left in the game.

Now the Liberty have to play without rest for the first time this season. It's also their third game in four days. If Jones remains out, it's even a worse spot for New York, which doesn't have the excellent depth it had last season.

All Washington does is cover point spreads. The Mystics tied Minnesota for the top point spread mark last season at 25-14-1. The Mystics are 4-2 ATS this year.

Washington is underrated ranking third in rebounding and fifth defensively. The Mystics last played on Wednesday when they upset the Fever at home. The Mystics have a pair of outstanding rookies, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, and are getting a career season from point guard Brittney Sykes, who is the No. 3 scorer in the WNBA averaging 22 points.

The Fever are a frustrated bunch. Caitlin Clark is out with an injury and the Fever just suffered an upset road loss to the Mystics this past Wednesday. 
I look for the Fever at home to take their frustrations out on the perfect patsy, Connecticut. 

This isn't the successful Sun team of the two previous seasons that reached the conference semifinals each of those years under Stephanie White. The Sun are in total rebuild with a first-year coach and all new starters. They are the worst team in the WNBA at 0-5, 1-4 ATS. 

White is now Indiana's head coach. Worse for the Sun is they are banged-up especially in the backcourt where their second-leading scorer and assists leader, Marina Mabrey, is questionable and Lindsay Allen is out. Frontcourt player, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, is questionable, too. She's Connecticut's third-leading scorer and second-best rebounder. 

The Fever desperately want to prove they are far more than just Caitlin Clark. This is their golden opportunity to show that.

Chicago has yet to win this season going 0-4. However, I see that changing here with the Sky earning their first victory. They draw a 1-4 Dallas team that is playing its fourth straight road game. 

The Sky are the worst defensive team in the WNBA. Dallas, though, isn't much better. The Wings rank 11th out of 13 teams defensively. 
Chicago's first two games were brutal - at the Fever and against New York, the defending champions and best team in the WNBA. The Sky have begun showing improvement under new coach Tyler Marsh. Chicago led Phoenix by 16 points on the road before losing, 94-89, this past Tuesday. Dallas also has a first-year head coach, Chris Koclanes.

The Wings' lone victory is against rebuilding Connecticut, who I rate as the worst team in the league. The Wings have two stars in rookie Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale. The Sky, though, are not without talent. They have two of the best young frontcourt players in Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso and a veteran backcourt of Courtney Vandersloot and Ariel Atkins. 

The Sky are not outclassed here. They are home and catching the Wings at the end of a long road trip. The spot is ripe for Chicago to win.

Even though Indiana is missing Caitlin Clark, the Mystics are going to have a big crowd for this home game and they won't lack motivation. This is Washington's first home game since May 16 when it opened with an upset of Atlanta.

The Mystics have been on the road for their four games. They went 1-3 in those games, but with the three defeats coming by a combined 11 points. The Mystics led late in the game, too, during all three of those losses.

Except for center Shakira Austin, who is questionable, the Mystics are finally healthy. They have the best guard on the court with Clark out in Brittney Sykes, who is having a breakout season under new coach Sydney Johnson. Sykes ranks No. 3 in scoring at 22.3 points and is ninth in assists.

Besides Clark's obvious scoring talents, the Fever are going to miss her leadership. Indiana is much deeper and better coached than last season. But the Fever players, particularly All-Star center Aliyah Boston, aren't going to be as effective without Clark getting them the ball at their right spots.

The Fever still have good players, but the Mystics are being underrated here. Washington ranks first in the WNBA in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

Washington tied with Minnesota for the top point spread record in the WNBA last season at 25-14-1 (64 percent) and they have a winning ATS mark this season.

Having played the Fever and Aces, two high-scoring opponents full of star power, the Liberty are dropping way down in offensive class to host the expansion Valkyries. Golden State is second-to-last in the league in scoring at 75 points a game. The Valkyries are last in the WNBA in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

The Valkyries have trouble scoring despite having played Los Angeles twice. The Sparks have the second-worst defense in the WNBA. The Liberty rank No. 3 in scoring defense. They had the No. 1 defense last season. 

However, the Valkyries are 2-1 because they give up the third-fewest points in the league at 77 per game. 

So I don't see a lot of points in this one, especially since it's a letdown spot for the Liberty and the Valkyries will be motivated to keep the score respectable against the defending champion.

Even when they won the WNBA championship last year, the Liberty's average winning margin was 9.1 points. Now look at this point spread. The perception is the Valkyries are the worst team in the WNBA because they are an expansion team. 

Well they are not. 

Golden State didn't go the normal expansion route. The Valkyries picked veterans instead of youth. They have a roster composed of decent players, many of whom would rank as either fringe starters or key role players. The Valkyries are 2-1. They could be better than three or four teams in the league. 

New York is fat and happy at 3-0. The Liberty returned to New York after nipping the Fever on the road in a marquee national televised game this past Saturday. This is a letdown spot for New York. 

The Liberty have played three bad defensive teams - Fever, Sky and Aces. The Valkyries give up the third-fewest points in the league at 77 per game. They can hang given this large of a point spread.

Typical of the WNBA that its biggest game of the season - the defending champion Liberty against Caitlin Clark and the upstart Fever - would be played as an early Saturday day game. But that's the WNBA for you.

Anyways, this sets up as a solid Under play.

There's going to be a playoff-type atmosphere in Indiana for this one. That means increased defensive intensity. The early Saturday start is another plus for the Under.

New York is giving up 76 points a game. The Liberty rank first in the WNBA in defensive field goal percentage. They are not going to let Clark embarrass them.

Indiana is stepping way up in defensive class after having its first three games come against weak defensive teams Chicago and Atlanta (twice). The Fever should be paying more attention to defense under new coach Stephanie White, who is a huge upgrade from Christie Sides. White coached Connecticut last season and the Sun were the No.1 ranked defense.

First off, we have the WNBA's top defensive team, Minnesota, going here. The Lynx are facing a disjointed Wings offense that has a new coach and new roster composition. The Lynx's defense should be especially tough because it's their first home game. 

It's only a matter of time before Paige Bueckers becomes Dallas' best player - if she isn't already. Right now that honor is accorded to Arike Ogunbowale, who is a consensus top-eight player in WNBA fantasy drafts. 

Ogunbowale, though, is a better fantasy player than real player. She's been one of the league's worst shooters for the past few years and she's started slow this year just six-of-26 from the floor and one-of-11 from 3-point range during Dallas' first two games. Worse, Ogunbowale is a ball hog. I don't expect her to break her shooting slump against an elite Lynx defense. 

New Wings coach Chris Koclanes is bringing with him a defensive emphasis. One of the players the Wings acquired during the off-season was DiJonai Carrington, one of the better defensive players in the league. The Wings could catch a break as the Lynx have been without two of their four best scorers as Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith have yet to play this season. 

These teams are familiar with each other, too, having met just five days ago in Dallas. The Lynx won, 99-84. That total went well Over. But there were just a combined 36 points scored during the final quarter. There should be more defensive intensity for this quick rematch.

Dallas was the worst defensive team in the WNBA last year and the Wings don't look any better this season under new coach Chris Koclanes judging by their opening game. The Wings surrendered 99 points to Minnesota at home. Minnesota was missing two of its four best offensive players, too.

The Lynx are known for their outstanding defense rather than producing big points. But scoring wasn't a problem for them against Dallas.

The Wings are stepping down in defensive class now facing Seattle, which looked terrible in its opener losing on the road to Phoenix, 81-59.

Dallas should be able to get its points against the Storm especially with star player Arike Ogunbowale having had a game to play with Paige Bueckers, the No. 1 overall draft pick. Bueckers is an emerging superstar. The Wings did put up 84 points on the Lynx, who were the No. 2 defense in the league last year giving up 75 points a game.

I'm expecting a much better performance from Seattle. So is the oddsmaker, who has made the Storm the favorite. The Storm shot just 33.3 percent from the floor against Phoenix and 17.6 percent from 3-point range. It's not a stretch to believe the Storm will shoot much better against the Wings. Seattle has its share of star power, too, with Skylar Diggins and Nneka Ogwumike. They also have Gabby Williams, a very underrated player.

The Storm are a good team. Not elite, but above average with plenty of star power and experience.

I'm not so sure about Phoenix. The Mercury have a big three of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Cooper, but lack depth and backcourt experience.

It's a good time to play Phoenix right now. That's because Cooper is out with a knee injury. The Mercury are thin in the backcourt and the team is going through an adjustment period as Thomas and Sabally are new to Phoenix. It's a new look for the Mercury as Diana Taurasi retired after 20 seasons with the team and Brittney Griner left Phoenix in free agency after 11 years.

Judging by an 0-2 preseason, including a loss to the expansion Valkyries, the Mercury have yet to develop any chemistry.

So I don't see the Mercury ready yet to beat a borderline top-five team.

The Liberty are facing a huge distraction in this, their opening game of the season. That's because New York won its first WNBA championship last season. So there will be a ring ceremony and raising of the championship banner.

The Aces will be watching this unfold mad knowing the Liberty ended their two-year reign as league champion. I expect the Aces to be the more motivated team.

I also consider the Aces to be the superior team.

Unlike the previous two seasons, the Aces aren't drawing nearly so much preseason attention. The champion bullseye is on the Liberty not them now.

Las Vegas traded Kelsey Plum for Jewell Loyd, an even exchange. The Aces still retain A'Ja Wilson, the best player in the WNBA, along with star guards Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, who is healthier than she was last season. The Aces also have improved their bench with promising center Elizabeth Kitley and veteran guards Tiffany Mitchell and Dana Evans.

The Liberty could be without two keys. Defensive ace Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is out for the season due to an off-season knee injury and Leonie Fiebich is questionable.  

Getting points with the Aces is just a bonus.

Atlanta has a much more star-packed roster than Washington. The Dream have four players - Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones - who are better than anybody on Washington's roster.

Making matters worse for the Mystics is they will be without two of their four best players. Out for Washington is center Shakira Austin, its best frontcourt player, and forward Aaliyah Edwards.

The Mystics have a new coach, Sydney Johnson, who brings in a whole different system. It's going to take time for the Mystics, who are in rebuilding mode, to get comfortable in Johnson's system.

The teams met during preseason on May 7. The road Dream beat Washington, 80-70.

The Lynx had the Liberty right where they wanted them. Minnesota led by 15 points at home in Wednesday's Game 3 championship series matchup in the best-of-five series.

The highlight play of the game was Sabrina Ionescu hitting a clutch 3-pointer with one second remaining on the shot clock at the end of the game to give New York an 80-77 victory.

The Liberty didn't play their "A" game, but still came away with the win.

The Lynx face three obstacles in trying to stave off elimination - a talent gap compared to how good the Liberty are, a quick mental turnaround following a devastating home loss after blowing a huge lead and center Alanna Smith's back injury.

Minnesota built its lead when Smith was on the court. Smith, though, only played 20 minutes after injuring her back guarding New York center Jonquel Jones late in the second quarter. The Lynx were plus-20 in points when Smith played. They were minus-19 in points during back-up center Myisha Hines-Allen nearly 18 minutes of playing time.

Napheesa Collier is Minnesota's superstar. Smith is the Lynx's unsung player. She is the team's top shotblocker, second-leading rebounder and fourth-leading scorer. The Lynx are in trouble against the best team in the WNBA with Smith at less than 100 percent.

No doubt the Lynx will give it a great shot. I just don't see them winning so I'm going to lay the higher juice and back New York on the money line.

There were just 146 points scored in New York's, 80-66, home win against Minnesota this past Sunday. Look for a similar low-scoring affair in this Game 3 matchup, especially with the venue switching to Minnesota.

The Lynx are a tremendous defensive team. They held foes to only 73 points at home. 

The Liberty are strong defensively, too, finishing either second or third in all of the major defensive categories. 

The intensity will be at a fever pitch with a capacity crowd expected at Target Center. 

Kudos to Minnesota for reaching the WNBA finals. But New York is the superior team - best in the WNBA this season - has home-court advantage and a good situational edge. 

Those factors are enough to back the Liberty in this point spread range.

New York eliminated two-time defending WNBA champion Las Vegas this past Sunday. The Liberty have been idle since eagerly awaiting the finals so they can prove they are indeed the best. 

The Lynx had it much rougher. They had to go the full five games against physical Connecticut. The Lynx beat the Sun at home in Tuesday's deciding Game 5. The schedule makers didn't do Minnesota any favors making this Game 1 fall on Thursday. It will be the Lynx's fourth game in six days.
 
Minnesota is an elite defensive team with a superstar, Napheesa Collier. New York is an elite defensive team, too, with a much better offense than Minnesota. The Liberty's 107 offensive rating was No. 1. So was their 32-8 regular season record. New York doesn't just have one superstar, but two in Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu.