Free Basketball Picks from the Worlds Best Handicappers

Stephen Nover WNBA Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-29-22	Mercury v. Dream		54-82	Loss	-115	13 h 15 m	Show
Phoenix is off to a slow start at 2-5. But the Mercury have shown their veteran skill set with a pair of victories against the Storm. They also have back star guard Skyler Diggins-Smith, who is coming off a 28-point game. I like Phoenix's depth in the backcourt with Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, Diamond DeShields and Shey Peddy. The Dream has crashed back to Earth after a fast start with consecutive losses to the Mystics by a combined 25 points. The Mercury has covered six of the last seven in the series.
05-28-22	Mystics v. Sun UNDER 156.5		71-79	Win	100	8 h 24 m	Show
I'm expecting a defensive showdown here. Not only are the Mystics and Sun the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, but they also rank first and second, respectively, in defense. The Mystics are holding foes to a WNBA-best 72.4 points per game. Connecticut is right there ranking second, giving up 73.4 points. The Sun also lead the league in creating turnovers and steals. The Mystics will be without their leading scorer, Elena Delle Donne. The star player, averaging 17.7 points, has a scheduled day off, according to Mystics coach Mike Thibault. The Sun recently lost their veteran point guard, Jasmine Thomas, to a season-ending knee injury. Thomas' absence could hurt the Sun's offense in this matchup.
05-27-22	Liberty +12.5 v. Storm		71-79	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
Seattle has a strong pedigree. But right now Seattle just isn't that good. The Storm are a .500 team that could be 1-5 if not for close victories against the Sky and Sparks. Phoenix's only two wins this season have come against the Storm. The Storm rank 10th in scoring and are last in field goal percentage. Seattle has failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times it has been favored. So I believe the Liberty can hang within single digits. They have better talent than their 1-5 record indicates. New York should have defeated the improved Lynx on the road this past Tuesday. The Liberty blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead. Minnesota made 27 of 33 free throws in that game.
05-26-22	Wings v. Sun -7		68-99	Win	100	7 h 54 m	Show
Short home revenge for Connecticut after the Wings upset the Sun, 85-77, on the road two days ago. That loss snapped a four-game Connecticut win streak. The Sun may not have had their full focus for that game after finding out that day that their starting point guard, Jasmine Thomas, will miss the rest of the season because of a torn ACL. Thomas has been a veteran leader for the Sun the past seven seasons. The Wings have firepower, but the Sun should be highly motivated for this game. The Sun still have excellent talent with Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones. They've helped the Sun rank as the No. 2 scoring team in the league. Connecticut has adequate replacements for Thomas.
05-24-22	Fever +13.5 v. Sky		90-95	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
The Sky and a happy Candace Parker are coming off a highly-satisfying national TV road win against the Mystics this past Sunday. Parker scored a triple-double against Washington. It was much celebrated since Parker was the oldest player in WNBA history to achieve that. Now the Sky get the rebuilding Fever, losers of four in a row. Following this game, Chicago gets Las Vegas at home up next. The Aces have the best record in the WNBA. So the situation sets up well for Indiana catching the Sky in a flat spot off a big win and with a huge look-ahead game. The Sky are 1-7-1 ATS the past nine times when meeting a foe with a losing record. Indiana is 10-3 ATS the last 13 times following a loss.
05-23-22	Sparks v. Aces -10		76-104	Win	100	12 h 18 m	Show
The Aces are really dangerous now that they have an elite coach in Becky Hammon. So it's no surprise the Aces have the best record in the WNBA at 6-1 (5-2 ATS). This is the Aces' final game of their homestand. They won't play again for five days before taking on the Sky in Chicago. The Sparks have always been a rivalry matchup for the Aces. So I see Las Vegas being up for this game. The Sparks are inconsistent as they have been during the Derek Fisher coaching era. LA has lost four in a row going 1-3 ATS. The Sparks are 2-6 ATS following a loss. I see a motivated Aces squad covering a double-digit spread at home here.
05-22-22	Sky v. Mystics OVER 159.5		82-73	Loss	-110	4 h 10 m	Show
The Mystics get back Elena Delle Donne, their leading scorer, for this game. That's huge both for Washington and for the total. The Mystics won't have injured guard Alysha Clark, though. That's another plus for the Over because she's an excellent defensive player. These are two of the top-five scoring teams in the WNBA. So I see this total as being short.
05-21-22	Lynx +5 v. Wings		78-94	Loss	-110	10 h 45 m	Show
The Lynx are 1-5, but 1-1 since Kayla McBride made her season debut. Minnesota defeated the Sparks and hung in against the Aces during its current road trip going 2-0 ATS. Now they Lynx get the Wings, who are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. Dallas is off a huge, 94-84, win against the Mercury from two days ago. So this is a potential letdown spot for Dallas. Minnesota has covered five of the past six in the series.
05-20-22	Fever +14 v. Sun		85-94	Win	100	9 h 30 m	Show
Until getting buried, 101-79, by the Dream this past Tuesday, Indiana had not lost a game by more than 14 points in any of its six games. Fever coach Marianne Stanley ripped her team following that loss questioning the Fever's effort and intensity among other things. So the Fever should be primed for a big effort here. Connecticut is fat and happy off a 92-65 victory against New York this past Tuesday. The Sun forced 32 turnovers in that win. Indiana turned the ball over only 12 times in its loss to the Dream. The Fever also held a rebound edge. Atlanta, though, was hot making 54 percent from the floor, including 10-of-22 3-pointers. It was a combination of poor defense by Indiana and excellent shooting by Atlanta. The Fever are 9-3 ATS following a loss. The Sun has played just three games. Indiana has played twice as many games. The teams meet again Sunday in Indianapolis. So the Sun won't likely want to run up a score knowing there would be a rapid revenge factor. This could leave the backdoor open in case Connecticut does build up a big advantage.
05-19-22	Lynx +11 v. Aces		87-93	Win	100	5 h 60 m	Show
After an 0-4 start, the Lynx got their first win two nights ago beating the Sparks, 87-84. It was not a coincidence that it was Kayla McBride's season debut after returning from Turkey where she led her team to a Turkish title. Minnesota is a much better team with McBride on the court. The Lynx can stay within double-digits of the Aces, who are 2-5 ATS following a win and 1-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Lynx, on the other hand, are 12-4-1 ATS following a victory.
05-11-22	Storm -4.5 v. Mercury		77-97	Loss	-110	10 h 29 m	Show
I want the prideful, well-coached Storm off a bad loss to Las Vegas in their last game. The Mercury are down a number of key players. They will be missing Kia Nurse and Brittney Griner and also are likely to be without Brianna Turner and Diamond DeShields. The Storm has covered five of the last seven times in Phoenix.
05-10-22	Aces v. Mystics +5.5		76-89	Win	100	6 h 47 m	Show
The Aces blew out the Phoenix Mercury, who were missing Brittney Griner. They then beat the Seattle Storm, who were missing their starting center. So the Aces enter this matchup fat and happy. Washington is 6-2 ATS as a home 'dog while the Aces have failed to cover five of the last seven times as chalk.
05-08-22	Storm v. Aces OVER 175.5		74-85	Loss	-110	12 h 30 m	Show
The oddsmaker struggles to post accurate numbers during the opening week of the WNBA season. That's especially true when it comes to totals. And he's come up short with this total. Seattle scored 97 points in its opener. Las Vegas scored even more, producing 106. The Aces are going to be much better coached under Becky Harmon this season. The Over has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams.
10-17-21	Mercury v. Sky -4		74-80	Win	100	17 h 31 m	Show
Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggs-Smith and Brittany Griner are great players who have tremendous pride. They will try to dig deep to keep Phoenix alive down 2-1 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series. But Chicago is playing too well, has home-court - which can not be underestimated - and isn't carrying the fatigue factor Phoenix is. The Sky blew out the Mercury, 86-50, two days ago in front of a home sell-out crowd of 10,378. If the Sky play as well as they did Friday, they will be the champions. There's no reason they shouldn't. Their defense has been stellar. Phoenix is lucky not to have been swept in this series having pulled off a home overtime victory in Game 2. Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper, Diamond DeShields and Courtney Vandersloot all are playing at high levels for Chicago. The Sky have gotten that important inside defense needed against Griner. The Mercury committed 17 turnovers in Game 3 while shooting just 25 percent from the field, the second-lowest percentage in WNBA Finals history. The Sky actually outscored Griner and the rest of the Mercury in the paint, 36-14. Phoenix has no chance if it is dominated inside like that. Some of the Mercury's problems are caused by fatigue. The league gave them no break starting the finals just two days after the Mercury won a hard-fought five-game series against the Aces. That took a huge physical and mental toll. This marks Phoenix's sixth game in 12 days.
10-15-21	Mercury v. Sky UNDER 167	Top	50-86	Win	100	19 h 17 m	Show
This total may look short based on Phoenix's 91-86 victory over Chicago two days ago, but it isn't. There were 158 points scored during regulation. It took an overtime for that total to go Over. This is a physical series with a lot of wear and tear that is taking a toll. Sky guard Allie Quigley, for instance, is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league. But she's missed 18 of 24 from beyond the range in this series. Chicago has played its best defense of the season during the playoffs. The Sky has the Mercury out of their rhythm. Phoenix is relying on its superstar center Brittney Griner to bail them out with second chance points and inside scoring. Griner is playing well, but she is looking at a fatigue factor not to mention the Sky's strong defense inside the paint. The Mercury is playing for the fifth time in 10 days, which is a lot for a WNBA team. Griner has logged big minutes. She played 41:29 minutes on Wednesday. That has to take a toll.
10-13-21	Sky v. Mercury -3.5	Top	86-91	Win	100	23 h 3 m	Show
This really is a must-win spot for Phoenix. If the Mercury lose they trail 2-0 in the best-of-five WNBA championship series and have to play in Chicago for Game 3. The Sky are playing their best ball. Granted. But they were in a great spot for Game 1 when they defeated the Mercury, 91-77, this past Sunday. Chicago had been idle for four days having taken out Connecticut in four games. The Mercury, meanwhile, had to come back and defeat Las Vegas on the road this past Friday to win the five-game Western Conference series. The Mercury were still feeling physically and mentally exhausted from nipping the Aces, 87-84, while being forced to play for the third time in five days. Now, though, the Mercury have had a chance to regroup. Brittney Griner gives Phoenix a dominating inside presence. Griner is having a strong postseason averaging 20.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. I don't see veteran stars Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith losing this clutch game and getting swept at home.
10-10-21	Sky +3 v. Mercury		91-77	Win	100	5 h 41 m	Show
The Mercury finds themselves at a real disadvantage in this first game of the WNBA championship series. Chicago has been idle for four days. The Sky knocked off Connecticut, the best defensive team in the league, in four games. They've been on the West Coast since Friday rested and ready. Phoenix gutted out a full five-game series against Las Vegas. They edged the Aces, 87-84, Friday night in Las Vegas. The Mercury accomplished this despite missing Kia Nurse and Sophia Cunningham. Those are two of their seven best players. Nurse is out for the season with a knee injury while Cunningham is questionable with a strained calf. This will be the Mercury's third game in five days. The Sky are playing their best defense of the season. They are far from the team that went 0-3 against the Mercury during the regular season. The Mercury beat Chicago by one point and in overtime during two of their victories. A key for the Sky will be limiting the inside presence of Brittney Griner. They kept Sun's superstar Jonquel Jones in check with strong inside defense. They have the depth to do this against Griner, too.
10-06-21	Sun v. Sky UNDER 155.5		69-79	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
Connecticut was the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA this season giving up less than 70 points a game. The Sun also ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 3 in 3-point defense. But after losing, 86-83, to Chicago this past Sunday the Sun is on the brink of elimination down 2-1 in this semifinal series. If the Suns are to even things they will need to do it with defense. They certainly have that capability. This is going to be a very physical and intense game. The Sky have done a great job keeping Jonquel Jones and the Sun's inside game in check. Chicago has surrendered an average of 77.2 points in regulation during its five playoff games. This is down from the 81.9 points it permitted during the regular season.