Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-18-23 | Aces +6.5 v. Liberty | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The defending WNBA champion Aces haven't been this big of an underdog since 2020. This is only the second time all season Las Vegas is getting points. The Aces blew out the Liberty, 99-82 and 104-76, at home during the first two games of this best-of-five championship series before losing Game 3 in New York, 87-73, this past Sunday.
So what gives with this large of a point spread? Several things: New York is home and its confidence has been restored after Sunday's victory. More important, though, are the Aces being without injured Chelsea Gray, last year's Finals MVP, and center Kiah Stokes. Both have foot injuries. Gray is a great two-way player and definitely worth something on the betting line. But the line is too high. The Aces are extremely well coached by Becky Hammon and are mentally tough. They also have versatile guards and swing players. Hammon can rely on point guard Kelsey Plum and guard/forward Jackie Young to keep the Aces' system fluid minus Gray. Plum is having an outstanding series. Stokes is a defensive specialist. She brought nothing to Las Vegas' offense. Alysha Clark, the Aces' sixth person, now will draw more minutes. She's a 3-point shooting threat who can keep the Liberty from jamming A'ja Wilson inside. Breanna Stewart won the league MVP award. But Wilson is the best player on the court. She should have been the league MVP. I trust Hammon to make the right adjustments. So I will accept this many points. |
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10-08-23 | Liberty +4.5 v. Aces | 82-99 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
It's only fitting that New York and Las Vegas meet in the WNBA Championship Series. Both are superpowers loaded with star power and clearly the two best teams in the WNBA. |
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09-26-23 | Sun v. Liberty -9 | Top | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
New York picked a bad time to play its worst game of the season. That came this past Sunday in Game 1 of its semifinal playoff series against Connecticut. The Sun whipped the Liberty, 78-63. While it was the Liberty's worst showing of the season, it was the Sun's most consistent game of the season, according to their coach, Stephanie White. Connecticut is the best defensive team in the WNBA. But New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league and also ranks No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Liberty got the better of the Sun in all four of their regular-season games, winning by an average margin of 15 points. The Liberty are 35-9 counting the postseason. They haven't lost two straight games all season. The Liberty won their next game following a defeat by an average of 16.3 points. So I see New York beating the Sun by double-digits. |
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09-20-23 | Sun -5 v. Lynx | Top | 90-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Good job by Minnesota taking this WNBA playoff series to a deciding third game. The Lynx are home, but should be bigger underdogs than this. Connecticut is a much better team than Minnesota. The Suns showed that in Game 1 winning by 30 points. The Lynx, though, pulled out an 82-75 win this past Sunday to even the series. Now the Lynx have the Sun's full attention. Connecticut led the WNBA in defense and had the fourth-highest scoring offense. Alyssa Thomas is a strong MVP candidate. She's like the Oscar Robertson of the WNBA with her ability to record triple-double games. Minnesota ranked ninth in scoring and was second-to-last on defense. Trends favor Connecticut, too. The Sun are 4-0 ATS the past four times following a loss and are 15-5-1 the last 21 games when playing on two days rest. The Lynx are 2-5 ATS the last seven times after covering and are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing with two days rest. |
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09-15-23 | Dream v. Wings -6 | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Dallas is at least a tier higher than Atlanta and should cover this mid-range number. The Wings swept Atlanta in the three regular-season meetings winning by an average of 10.6 poins. The teams just met five days ago in Atlanta to close out the regular season and the Wings smashed the Dream, 94-77. The Wings have a height advantage that the Dream hasn't been able to overcome. Atlanta is fortunate to even be in the postseason. The Dream picked up the fifth seed when Indiana defeated Minnesota on the final day of the regular-season. |
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09-03-23 | Mercury v. Lynx -3.5 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
Phoenix has packed in its season, failing to make the playoffs. The Mercury have lost seven in a row. They are 1-17 on the road. This is their second-to-last road game of the season. |
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09-02-23 | Storm +20 v. Aces | 77-103 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
The Aces aren't blowing out any opponents as they rest up for the playofs. Las Vegas is just 3-4 in its last seven games. The Aces haven't won by more than 13 points during their last eight games. Aces coach Becky Hammon has had to use her bench far more this deep in the season with Candace Parker out and no long breaks between games. This is the Aces' sixth game in 12 days. The Storm is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA. But you wouldn't know that from how the Storm has been hanging in lately. Seattle upset the Sparks two days ago in Los Angeles. The Storm are 7-6 in their last 13 games. Jewell Loyd, the league's top scorer, gives the Storm a chance in every game. |
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08-31-23 | Storm v. Sparks -5.5 | 72-61 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Holding just a half-game lead on Chicago for the final playoff spot, Los Angeles should have tremendous motivation for this home game against Seattle. It's the Sparks' second-to-last home contest. They finish the regular season with three straight road games. Seattle has Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's leading scorer, but little else. The Storm also lacks incentive having already been eliminated from playoff contention. The Storm have lost three in a row, going 0-2-1 ATS in those games. The Sparks have been a hot point spread team covering 10 of their last 12. They also are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times hosting Seattle. |
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08-24-23 | Liberty -6 v. Sun | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Connecticut is the third-best team in the WNBA. Unfortunately for the Sun they are a distant third behind Las Vegas and New York. The Sun host New York here, but it's not a good spot for them. This marks Connecticut's third game in five days, all at different venues. The Sun have lost three of their past five games. They narrowly escaped short-handed Washington on the road two days ago winning, 68-64. New York is peaking at the right time as their star players are now more acclimated to each other. The Liberty are 20-4 in their last 24 games, covering six of their past seven games. The Liberty are battle-tested having played the Aces twice during their last three games with both games being in Las Vegas. New York should be well-rested and prepared for this challenge having been idle since last Friday. |
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08-20-23 | Storm v. Lynx -5.5 | 88-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
The teams just met two days ago in Seattle and Minnesota won, 78-70. The Lynx won despite making just 6 of 21 3-point shots. Now Minnesota is home. Seattle is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA at 9-22. The Lynx are a playoff team. Minnesota is 11-5-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Storm is heavily reliant on Jewell Loyd and she's been cold. Loyd has missed 21 of her last 24 shots from 3-point range. |
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08-19-23 | Sparks +17 v. Aces | 78-72 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
The timing is ripe for the Sparks to stay well within this lopsided point spread. The Aces are in a letdown spot after marquee home games this past Tuesday and Thursday against New York. Las Vegas had a highly-satisfying, 88-75, revenge win against the Liberty two days ago. Now they have to play less than 48 hours later in a day game. Las Vegas has the best record in the WNBA by four games. A playoff berth has been clinched by the Aces. Los Angeles is in contention for a playoff spot. The Sparks have gotten healthy and are playing well with a three-game win streak. Their last victory came a week ago when they defeated Atlanta, 85-74. That may have been the Sparks' best defensive effort. LA comes in motivated, prepared, rested and in excellent form rendering this point spread too high. |
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08-12-23 | Sun +2.5 v. Wings | 81-91 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Connecticut is off a 90-84 road loss to Phoenix this past Tuesday. Only once all season have the Sun dropped two in a row. The Sun are the top defensive team in the WNBA. Dallas ranks 10th defensively in the 12-team league. The Wings are in a slump having lost and failed to cover in four of their last five games. Connecticut is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games. The Sun also have covered in five of their last six games versus the Wings.
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08-10-23 | Dream -5.5 v. Storm | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
Discount road losses to the Aces and Liberty, the league's two powerhouses, and Atlanta is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games. Seattle is 2-13 at home this season. The Storm have lost their past six home contests. They also are without injured Gabby Williams. This is a huge loss. She could be the Storm's second or third-best all-around player. I don't believe this line has fully accounted for her absence here.
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08-08-23 | Aces -8.5 v. Wings | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. New York is the only team even remotely close to the Aces. I see this as a kill spot for Las Vegas following its 99-61 embarrassing road loss to the Liberty two days ago. The 24-3 Aces haven't lost twice in a row all season. They followed up their earlier two losses by victories of 13 and 24 points. The Aces have won their last five road games by an average of 17.6 points. Dallas is not in good form having just lost consecutive home games to 12-15 Chicago by a combined 23 points. |
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08-08-23 | Sparks +1.5 v. Fever | Top | 87-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Indiana had the worst record in the WNBA last season and the Fever have the worst record in the league this season. The Fever are 2-14 in their last 16 games. They have failed to cover in their past five games. The Sparks are a disappointing 10-18. But they've been hit hard by injuries. So at least they have an excuse. Now, though, the Sparks are getting healthy. They just beat the Mystics, 91-83, on the road this past Sunday. That was the Sparks' fifth straight cover. LA is the better team. It's not too much to ask the Sparks to merely win this game. |
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08-06-23 | Fever v. Dream -7.5 | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Indiana is back in a familiar spot in the WNBA - having the worst record. The Fever are 2-13 in their last 15 games. They just were blown out, 88-72, at home by Connecticut two days ago. Atlanta isn't as good as Connecticut. But the Dream are playing for playoff seeding and have strong motivation. They are home following bad road losses to Las Vegas and Phoenix. The 20-point loss to the Mercury in their last game this past Thursday was an embarrassment. The Fever have struggled against the Dream point spread-wise going 3-12-1 ATS during the past 16 meetings. |
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08-04-23 | Sparks v. Mystics -3.5 | 77-79 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
These are the two hardest-hit injury teams in the WNBA. Washington still isn't going to have Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin, but I see the Mystics covering this number. The Mystics are 12-13. Los Angeles is 9-17 having lost 10 of its past 12 games. LA is 2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS on the road and this is a difficult away spot. The Sparks hosted the Liberty this past Tuesday. This is their first road contest since July 22 and it's a cross-country trip. Washington is below .500 for the first time this season. The Mystics have been idle since Sunday when they finished a three-game, five-day road trip going 0-3. They should be rested, prepared and motivated for this matchup. The Mystics are 8-4 at home. They have covered seven of their last eight home contests. |
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08-03-23 | Dream v. Mercury +7.5 | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Phoenix is 6-19, tied for the worst record in the WNBA. Atlanta is a middle-level team. So the point spread may seem right. But I see this being a much closer game than the spread indicates. Four things give me optimism the Mercury can stay within this number: No. 1: The game is in Phoenix. The Mercury are dreadful on the road, but a respectable 6-7 at home. The Dream are playing at a different arena for the fourth time in a row. No. 2: Short revenge. The Dream defeated Phoenix, 78-65, when they hosted them on July 25. The Mercury made only 5-of-24 (21 percent) 3-pointers. Brittney Griner played in that game. She missed 12 of 19 shots from the field and had a point differential of minus 20. Griner won't play today. So that actually could be a positive given how poorly she played against the Dream in the previous meeting. No. 3: Phoenix has the better defensive number. The Mercury give up a point fewer per game than Atlanta. No. 4: The Diana Taurasi factor. The 41-year star guard remains a very good player and a fiery force. Taurasi is the league's all-time leading scorer. If she scores more than 18 points today, she'll pass 10,000 career points. Phoenix fans are aware of that and will be rooting hard for her. So the fans and team should very much be motivated. |
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08-01-23 | Dream +14.5 v. Aces | Top | 72-93 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
Atlanta hasn't been this large of an underdog all season. The Aces are having a record-breaking season, but this is too many points for them to lay. The Dream have picked up their game winning nine of their last 12. Like the Aces, they have star power with three All-Stars. Atlanta won't lack motivation. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is off a highly-satisfying 13-point home revenge win against Dallas this past Sunday. The Aces' next game is a marquee matchup on the road against New York, the other superpower in the WNBA. So this is a sandwich spot for the Aces, who once again will be without injured starter Candace Parker. The teams last met a month ago in Atlanta. The Dream covered for the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams. Las Vegas only was able to win, 92-87. |
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07-30-23 | Mystics v. Dream -6.5 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Atlanta is several tiers below the elite teams of the WNBA, specifically the Aces, Liberty and Sun. But the Dream have been playing their best ball winning eight of their past 11 games. They are a tier ahead of the Mystics, who are having trouble competing given all of their injuries. Washington is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mystics have failed to cover in their last five road games. They continue to be without superstar Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin. Those are three of their top five scorers. They aren't likely to have Queen Egbo either after she hurt her ankle in Washington's last game. Egbo was a front-court rotation player hoping to provide rebounding and interior defense with Delle Donne and Austin out. |
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07-30-23 | Lynx v. Sun -11.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
It's not the Aces, nor the Liberty, who have the best point spread record in the WNBA. It's the Sun. Connecticut is 14-9-1 (61 percent) ATS. The Sun are tied with the Liberty for the second-best record in the league at 18-6. The Sun are in a great spot to win big against visiting Minnesota. The Lynx are in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty, 88-83, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Friday. The Lynx also carry a high fatigue rating. This is their third game in five days. Connecticut, by contrast, has been idle since Tuesday. Minnesota is without its best player, All-Star Napheesa Collier. She leads the Lynx in scoring by a wide margin and in rebounding. The Sun have covered in six of their last seven games against Minnesota. They are 2-0 versus the Lynx this season winning both times on the road by five and 21 points in the last meeting. |
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07-28-23 | Mystics +9.5 v. Wings | 62-90 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
The Mystics are down three starters, including their superstar forward, Elena Delle Donne. But Washington has proven to be spunky and resilient. The Mystics have lost by more than nine points only once in their last 14 games. Washington has covered each of the past four times following a loss. Dallas also lost in its last game, 88-83 at home to Connecticut. That halted the Wings' five-game win streak. The Wings showed in that loss they are not among the elite teams in the WNBA. The Wings may have lost their mojo in that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead game up next playing the Aces in Las Vegas on Sunday. Washington is the better defensive team, giving up three fewer points per game than the Wings. |
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07-22-23 | Sparks +7.5 v. Wings | 84-98 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
On the surface, this looks like an easy winner for host Dallas. The Wings are riding a season-high four-game win streak, while Los Angeles has lost seven in a row. |
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07-21-23 | Liberty -8.5 v. Mystics | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Mystics have too many injuries to stay within double-digits of the Liberty. Out for Washington is Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin and Kristi Toliver. Delle Donne is one of the best players in the league. Austin is the Mystics' top inside player and Atkins is a key backcourt scorer. It's obvious the Mystics are not the same team without these players after they lost at home to the lowly Fever, 82-76, this past Wednesday. New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.8 points. The Mystics are giving up an average of 88.3 points during their last eight games. The Liberty are in bounce-back mode after a home upset loss to the Wings two days ago. That snapped the Liberty's four-game win streak. New York has not lost consecutive games this season. The Liberty are 4-0 ATS following a defeat. The Mystics are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing an above .500 opponent. |
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07-18-23 | Lynx v. Dream -5.5 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The Dream are playing their best ball, riding a six-game win streak. They are home and will have three of the four best players on the court in All-Stars Rhyne Howard, Cheyenne Parker and Allisha Gray. Those three are averaging a combined 51 points per game. Minnesota can't stop strong offenses. The Lynx's last two games were against the Wings and Aces. They lost those games by an average of 32 points giving up an average of 110 points in those defeats. Atlanta ranks No. 3 offensively averaging 86.6 points. The Dream are averaging 91.8 points in their last six games. The Lynx have multiple injuries. They will be without their leading rebounder, Jessica Shepard, along with missing guards Aerial Powers and Rachel Banham. |
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07-12-23 | Storm v. Dream -8 | Top | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Seattle is the coldest team in the WNBA having lost eight of its last nine, including six in a row. The Storm, though, gave it an excellent comeback effort in their last game coming from 25 points down in the third quarter to lose to the Mystics in Washington, 93-86. Unfortunately for the Storm that road game was last night. So the Storm will be playing without rest and are in action for the fourth time in seven days. That's a brutal stretch for any basketball team, especially an WNBA one, whose players have to fly commercial instead of charter. The Storm now visit a rested Atlanta team that has been idle since Sunday. The Dream are playing their best ball winning five in a row, the last four by double-digits. Led by Rhye Howard, Allisha Gray and Cheyene Parker - all All-Stars - the Dream is the No. 3 scoring team in the league. Seattle is the worst defensive team in the league. The Storm heavily rely on Jewell Lloyd to do their scoring. Lloyd, though, logged more than 35 minutes last night. She is playing on a tender ankle, too. Atlanta is the far superior team right now and the situation is another huge minus for the Storm. |
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07-11-23 | Mercury +17.5 v. Aces | 72-98 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
The Phoenix Mercury have been the biggest disappointment in the WNBA. But the Mercury also have talent and have played more competitively the past six games after a coaching change from Vanessa Nygaard to Nikki Blue. The Mercury are 3-3 ATS in their last six games. Three games ago they nearly upset New York - the second-best team in the WNBA next to Las Vegas - losing by four points as a 15-point ' road dog. Phoenix is coming off a 78-72 victory against Los Angeles this past Sunday. The Mercury are better than what they were when the Aces buried them, 99-79, in Phoenix last month shortly before Nygaard was fired. Phoenix doesn't have Las Vegas' star power. But the Mercury do have a top-five front-court player in Brittney Griner and 41-year-old guard Diana Taurasi still remains feisty and above average. The Mercury should go all-out since they won't play again for another week. That's not the case for the Aces. Their situation is much different. The Aces were fired-up after getting upset by Dallas this past Friday. They took their frustrations out on Minnesota this past Sunday winning, 113-89. This marks Las Vegas' fourth game in seven days. The Aces play the Sparks in Los Angeles on Wednesday. This is a rivalry matchup. So it's doubtful if Aces coach Becky Hammon plays her starters big minutes if her team has a comfortable lead. I believe the Mercury will keep this game close. But even if things start to get out of hand, the backdoor should stay open given the Aces' scheduling situation. |
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07-07-23 | Aces v. Wings +10.5 | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm not looking to fade the Aces very often. They clearly are the best team in the WNBA right now. But this is the exception. The Aces are overpriced here. It wouldn't shock me if Dallas pulled the outright upset even being a double-digit home 'dog. The teams just met this past Wednesday in Las Vegas. The Wings led by nine at halftime and by two points going into the fourth quarter. The Aces remained unbeaten at home winning, 89-82. Dallas came very close despite Arike Ogunbowale, who ranks fourth in the WNBA in scoring at 21.5 points, missing 15 of 20 shots from the floor. Dallas came close despite Satou Sabally missing the second half due to illness. She's fourth in the league in rebounding. Ogunbowale and Sabally are the Wings' top two scorers. Las Vegas was without star point guard Kelsey Plum due to illness. She's questionable for this game. This is Dallas' Game of the Year. The game is sold out in Arlington. The Aces are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games and are 0-5 ATS in their past five games against Dallas. |
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06-24-23 | Mercury +2.5 v. Storm | 74-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
These are the two worst teams in the WNBA. Phoenix at least has an excuse - injuries. Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi have both been out. Griner and Taurasi, still effective at 41, are expected to return to the lineup today. That puts me on the underdog Mercury. Seattle is 1-7 at home this season. The Mercury have covered four of the past five in the series. The Mercury have a scheduling advantage, too. They last played this past Wednesday, while the Storm are in action for the third time in five days. |
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06-03-23 | Storm +6 v. Sparks | 85-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Seattle is in rebuild mode. However, the Storm have covered two of their three games. They are well-coached and retained two good players, Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor. The spot sets up well for Seattle here. The Storm have been idle since Tuesday. They have been in Los Angeles before the Sparks. That's because the Sparks were in Phoenix last night where they upset the Mercury in overtime. That game took a huge effort from the Sparks, who are dealing with multiple injuries and in transition themselves with a new coach. |
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05-30-23 | Sky +2.5 v. Dream | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Chicago has proven to be underrated this season. The Sky are the only unbeaten spread team left in the WNBA at 4-0 ATS. They are road 'dogs to Atlanta. I don't believe the Dream should be favored. The Dream just lost at home straight-up to Indiana, the worst team in the WNBA, as a seven-point favorite. The Fever had lost 20 straight games dating back to last season. Chicago is the No. 3 defensive team in the league giving up 73.5 points. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively surrendering 84 points. Chicago has injuries to rotation players Morgan Bertsch and Rebekah Gardner. However, the Sky have a deep roster and are well coached by James Wade. |
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09-11-22 | Sun v. Aces -5.5 | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
The Aces have the talent, best player on the court in A'ja Wilson, best guard in Kelsey Plum and a tremendous coach, WNBA Coach of the Year Becky Hammon. Oh, yes, the Aces are in a great situational spot here in this first game of the WNBA Finals against the Suns. Given all of these factors, I see Las Vegas covering this spread. The Aces last played Tuesday. They've had four full days to rest and prepare for Connecticut having already been on the West Coast. The Sun had to go the full five games in their semifinal series against the Sky. They upset the Sky in Chicago this past Thursday. This marks Connecticut's fourth game in seven days. The Sun are coming in from the East Coast and this is an early start time especially for them. Las Vegas won two of the three regular season meetings between the two teams. The Sun have the deeper bench. But that isn't going to matter in this opening game. The Aces have the superior starting lineup and Hammon is going to ride that. I don't see the Sun slowing down the Aces' offense, which was the best in the league. |
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09-08-22 | Sun +4.5 v. Sky | 72-63 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
The Sun just didn't beat the Sky this past Tuesday at home to tie this semifinal series at 2-2, they buried Chicago, 104-80. That sets up this deciding Game 5 in Chicago. Connecticut has the confidence and momentum to upset the defending champion Sky in Chicago. Getting this many points is a nice bonus. The Sun are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Chicago is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day rest. The taller Sun frontline dominated the Sky in Tuesday's game with 66 points in the paint. Candace Parker is forced to do too much and fatigue is wearing her down. The Sky's backcourt also hasn't been playing well, turning the ball over too many times. |
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09-06-22 | Aces v. Storm +1 | Top | 97-92 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
It may have been the best game of the entire WNBA season when Las Vegas beat Seattle on the road two days ago in overtime, 110-98. The Aces forced overtime by scoring at the buzzer. The Storm blew a 4-point lead with 11 seconds left. Seattle led the WNBA in free throw percentage and 3-point shooting. But the Storm's Tina Charles missed a pair of free throws near the end that would have likely sealed the victory in regulation for Seattle. The Storm also was outshot from 3-point range by Las Vegas in Sunday's loss. The Aces can clinch the semifinal series with a victory today leading the best-of-five series 2-1. Seattle won the first game of the series. The Aces have won the last two. But I deeply envision the Storm forcing a Game 5 by winning this home game. Why? Let me count the reasons: I don't see the Storm losing in Sue Bird's final career game at home. I can't see A'Ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray playing any better than they did this past Sunday. They are both excellent players. Wilson might be the best player in the league. But they were both on their ''A'' game. They can only hope to match those performances, which is going to be extremely difficult. I don't envision Seattle losing for the third time in a row. The only time the Storm lost three in a row was during their second, third and fourth games of the season back in early-to-mid May. The Aces are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. I doubt the Aces will shoot better than the Storm from beyond the arc again. Seattle was the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the league. The Aces ranked 10th of 12 teams in 3-point defense. Yet Las Vegas made 52 percent of its 28 3-point shots Sunday, while the Storm hit 48 percent of their 27 3-point shots. |
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08-31-22 | Sun v. Sky -4.5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
The defending WNBA champion Sky understand how crucial winning Game 2 of this semifinal series against the Sun is after getting upset at home by Connecticut in Game 1. Teams leading the best-of-five playoff series are 15-0 in WNBA history. In other words, no team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit. The Sky also realizes that Games 3 and 4 are in Connecticut. Chicago also was upset in its playoff opener at home last series losing to New York, 98-91. The Sky came back to smash the Liberty by 38 points in Game 2 at home. The Sun are tough inside. They defeated the Wings in their previous playoff series despite making only 13 of 46 3-pointers. Connecticut was able to hurt Dallas inside. The Sky hold a backcourt edge and they have the bigs with Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman to combat Jonquel Jones, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas. |
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08-28-22 | Sun +4 v. Sky | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
The Sun have covered in their last seven road games. They are a blistering 13-3 (81%) ATS in their past 16 games. I'm backing the Sun to cover - if not upset - Chicago on the road in this opening WNBA semifinal series. The Sky has lost four of their last seven games. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Chicago opened its previous series with a 98-91 home loss to New York as a 10-point favorite. Connecticut should be less rusty than Chicago having last played this past Wednesday. The Sky clinched their series against the Liberty this past Tuesday. The Sky went 4-0 against Connecticut during the regular season. Yet three of those four games were decided by four points or less with the game tied or the Sun leading in the fourth quarter or overtime. Chicago is the defending WNBA champion. Connecticut, though, has plenty of postseason experience having reached the semifinals for each of the last four seasons. The Sky eliminated them in the playoffs last year. The Sun have been pointing to this first game and getting revenge for a long time. Now is their chance. |
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08-24-22 | Sun -4.5 v. Wings | Top | 73-58 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
This is the third and deciding game in this playoff series. The Sun are at least one level higher than the Wings. Perhaps they got overconfident, though, after they buried Dallas, 93-68, in Game 1. The Wings came back to upset the Sun, 89-79, this past Sunday. Both of those games were in Connecticut. That was the Wings' first playoff victory since 2009. Now Dallas is likely to get back Arike Ogunbowale, its leading scorer. The Wings are the home team here. Things are looking up for the Wings, right? Perhaps. But I don't see the Wings upsetting the Sun again in this winner-take-all matchup. Connecticut has more talent, deeper bench and big-game playoff experience. Ogunbowale has missed eight of Dallas' last nine games. So she could be rusty. The Wings did fine without her to make the playoffs. Connecticut is looking to reach the semifinals for the fourth consecutive season. Dallas has one playoff victory in the last 13 years. The Sun had the second-best road record in the league at 12-6. The Wings have a losing home mark. The Sun also have covered their past six away contests and are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've played in Dallas. |
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08-21-22 | Wings +12 v. Sun | 89-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
The Sun is the superior team. No argument there. But the Wings are much better than they showed in the playoff opener when they were embarrassed by the Sun, 93-68. I see the Wings playing much better while giving everything they have with their season on the brink here. Dallas did beat the Sun two of three during the regular season. The Wings have covered seven of their last nine road games and are 6-1 ATS following a loss.
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08-17-22 | Liberty v. Sky -8 | Top | 98-91 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
The defending WNBA champion Chicago Sky host the New York Liberty in this opening playoff game. There's a big class difference between the 26-10 Sky and 16-20 Liberty. The key question is the gap enough for the Sky to cover this number? I say it is. The Liberty did well to get into the playoffs. They accomplished the task by winning six of their last eight games. But none of these games was against any of the top five teams in the league. There's a dropoff from the top five teams - Sky, Aces, Sun, Storm and Mystics - to the rest of the league. Chicago has a huge edge inside. The Sky led the WNBA with an average of 42.1 points in the paint. The Liberty was last in that category, averaging 31.2 points. Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman give the Sky a strong inside presence. Chicago finished No. 1 in the league in field goal percentage. The Sky also have much better depth and bench strength than New York. The Liberty is highly reliant on star guard Sabrina Ionescu. But she can go hot and cold. New York ranked third-from-the-bottom in scoring. The Liberty did well to reach the postseason. But they aren't going to advance out of the first round. |
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08-12-22 | Wings v. Mercury +1.5 | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
The Mercury is a home underdog to Dallas. A big reason for this is Phoenix will be without its best player, guard Skylar Diggins-Smith, due to personal reasons. But the situation trumps this development. The Mercury are in a four-way tie for the final two playoff spots. This is their second to last game. They close the regular season against the much tougher defending WNBA champion Sky. This game means nothing to Dallas. The Wings have clinched the No. 6 seed in the playoffs. They are locked into that playoff seeding. So the game means nothing to Dallas. But do the Mercury still have enough talent to beat even a disinterested Wings squad without Diggins-Smith and injured Diana Taurasi? Yes. They have outstanding guards even minus Diggins-Smith with Diamond DeShields, Shey Peddy and Sophie Cunningham, perhaps the most improved player in the league. The Mercury showed that when they defeated the Liberty, another playoff contender, by 10 points at home this past Saturday without Diggins-Smith and Taurasi. Phoenix is 10-6 at home this season. Dallas is without a key player, too, as its leading scorer, Arike Ogunbowale, is out with a hip injury. |
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08-09-22 | Dream v. Aces -10.5 | Top | 90-97 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
The Aces got back on track this past Sunday upsetting Seattle on the road, 89-81. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon made a key adjustment starting center Kiah Stokes. That gave the Aces more size and rebounding. Las Vegas has covered 10 of the last 14 times it has hosted Atlanta. However, the last time the Dream played in Las Vegas, which was on July 19, they upset the Aces, 92-76. The Aces are in a good spot to exact revenge. The Dream are playing for the fourth time in six days. They just played in Minnesota two days ago. WNBA teams fly commercial, so six games in four days is an extremely tough grind. Making matters worse for the Dream is they are short-handed. They were only able to use eight players in their 10-point loss to the Lynx this past Sunday. One of Atlanta's missing players against the Lynx was Tiffany Hayes. She is the Dream's leading scorer. Her status is up in the air due to an ankle injury. Atlanta is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games. |
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08-07-22 | Sparks v. Mystics -9 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Out of gas and out of motivation, the Sparks should be no match for Washington. Los Angeles realizes its playoff goal is not going to be met. The Sparks' postseason hopes have realistically been dashed with a six-game losing streak, the latest coming in heart-breaking fashion. That was an 88-86 road loss to Atlanta on Friday where a Sparks' game-tying basketball came just after time expired. That loss was mentally draining for the Sparks. I don't see them getting right to put forth much of an effort in this mismatch. The Sparks are also physically drained. This is their fourth game in six days, fifth in eight days. The last four all have been away from home LA is 2-6 ATS following a loss. The Sparks have failed to cover in four of their last five visits to Washington D.C. The Mystics are one of the five best teams in the WNBA. They are at least two levels higher than the Sparks. Washington defeated Las Vegas by 10 points at home this past Tuesday, but then played one of its worst games of the season in a double-digit road loss to the defending champion Sky on Friday. The Mystics rested their superstar, two-time league MVP Elena Delle Donne, in that loss to Chicago. Delle Donne is expected to play against the Sparks. The Mystics are 6-1 ATS the past seven times versus sub .500 opponents. Unlike the 12-20 Sparks, I see the Mystics being up for this home game. Given their talent and coaching edges that should mean an easy victory. |
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08-06-22 | Fever +12.5 v. Wings | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Indiana has lost 15 in a row. The Fever, though, has kept six of these last 10 losses to 10 or fewer points. Indiana should provide a full effort as it won't play again for the next six days. But nearly this entire handicap is based on the situation Dallas finds itself in. The Wings defeated the Sky and Aces - two of the three best teams in the league - during the previous four days to upgrade their playoff position. Now the Wings are dropping way down in class, while playing for the third time in six days.. I see a letdown occurring here. The Wings are average statistically. They play at the second-slowest pace in the league. I don't believe the Wings can cover this large of a number especially given the probable letdown factor. |
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08-05-22 | Mystics v. Sky -5.5 | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
I want the Sky, the best team in the WNBA, going for me after they were upset by the Wings in their last game this past Tuesday. The Mystics, on the other hand, are coming off a huge home victory against the Aces, the second-best team in the WNBA. The prideful defending champion Sky were extremely sloppy against Dallas. I'm expecting them to clean up their act going against one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Chicago has covered 20 of the last 27 times versus above .500 opponents. The Mystics aid they will be resting Elena Delle Donne today. She's a superstar and the Mystics' best player leading them in scoring and rebounding. |
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07-31-22 | Mercury v. Liberty +1.5 | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Phoenix is playing better winning three of its last four games. But all of those games were at home. The Mercury have to make the long cross-country journey to face New York, which desperately needs a victory in hopes of making the playoffs, being two games out from being the last seed. This is a day game, too, which makes it even rougher on Phoenix. The Mercury haven't played in an Eastern Standard Time Zone game since mid-June. Phoenix is 4-11 on the road this season. The teams met on July 7 in Phoenix and the Mercury won, 84-81. Home court should translate into a victory this time around for the Liberty. |
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07-29-22 | Aces v. Fever +14 | 93-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
The Aces are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending champion Sky, 93-83, in Chicago on Tuesday. At stake was the Commissioner's Cup, which the Aces won for the first time in franchise history, along with establishing who is the team to beat this season in the WNBA. It was a monster victory for Las Vegas. So the Aces can be excused if they take Indiana - the worst team in the league - too lightly. The Fever have lost 12 in a row, a young team clearly in rebuild mode. The key question here is can the Aces still cover this large of a road number even if they play well below their standards in such an obvious letdown spot? I say no. Las Vegas is 3-8 ATS the last 11 times it has played a below .500 opponent. The teams met eight days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won that game by less than this point spread, 90-77. Indiana has covered four of its past seven games. So the Fever still are trying. They have two talented players in Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith. The Fever should be rested and ready having not played since last Sunday. |
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07-28-22 | Lynx +2 v. Dream | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
This is a crucial game for the Lynx. They trail the Dream by 2 1/2 games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA. The Lynx have just seven games left. But they have hope if they win here because their next game is against the Sparks on Sunday. The Sparks are 12-15 and going through turmoil after cutting center Liz Cambage. A big key here is Sylvia Fowles is expected to play for Minnesota. She missed the Lynx's last game this past Sunday against Connecticut. She's the Lynx's leading scorer and rebounder. Minnesota has lost three in a row. Two of those defeats, though, came to Connecticut. The other occurred to Washington. Now the Lynx is stepping down in class. The Lynx are 5-1 ATS the last six times they've gone against a below .500 team. Minnesota has covered four of its last five away contests. The Lynx lost to the Sky by three points and to the Aces by one point during their past five road games. Those are the two best teams in the WNBA.
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07-24-22 | Wings -6 v. Fever | 96-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Dallas is 11-15 and hoping to land a playoff berth. The Wings can't take a loss to this opponent. Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA at 5-24. The Fever are in free fall. They've lost 11 in a row - all by seven or more points with the averaging losing margin being 14.5 points. The Wings were competitive in their last two games taking on the defending champion Sky in a home-road series. The Sky have the best record in the league at 21-6. Now the Wings are stepping down in class. They played the Fever a month ago and buried them, 94-68. I have to believe the Wings are going to win this game. The Fever haven't been competitive. So I'll lay the points. |
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07-22-22 | Storm -6 v. Mercury | 78-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Phoenix is the second-worst ATS team in the WNBA. The Mercury also rank second-to-last in rebounding and defense. They are a small, guard-oriented team that is without one of their better backcourt players, Diamond DeShields. She remains sidelined with a hip injury. The Mercury also have been negatively impacted psychologically with the absence of their star center, Brittney Griner, who remains in legal difficulty in Russia. Both teams need this game. The Storm is one of the elite teams in the league. They are playing for playoff seeding and coming off a 78-74 road loss to the defending champion Sky this past Wednesday. Seattle was outrebounded by 10 boards in that game. The defeat halted a four-game Seattle win streak. The Storm have covered the past four times following a loss. They also will have a rare rebounding edge against Phoenix. It's a huge game for Tina Charles, who came to Seattle after Phoenix released her. The former All-Star did not have a pleasant stay with the Mercury. I don't trust the Mercury even though they are one game out of the playoffs. They rarely beat an elite team and fail to close against weaker opponents. Phoenix could be rusty, too, having not played since last Sunday. The Mercury are 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on three or more days rest. |
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07-19-22 | Dream +12.5 v. Aces | Top | 92-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Las Vegas is back on track going 3-0 following All-Star break. The Aces' three victories all came on the road with two coming against the Liberty in revenge mode and the other occurring this past Sunday against the Sun in a major challenge. Now the Aces return home to face the lowly Dream. I see a letdown coming from the Aces. So I'll take double-digit points with Atlanta. The Aces have failed to cover in their last six home games. They are 2-4 SU during these recent home games. Las Vegas often is overpriced. The Aces have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 games overall. Atlanta has covered the past four times versus Western Conference teams. The Dream have a winning point spread road record. The Dream defeated the Mercury, 85-75, this past Sunday in Phoenix. That was a huge morale boost for the Dream and showed they have quality reserves as their leading scorer, Rhyne Howard, Nia Coffey and Monique Billings all missed that game due to injuries. I'm not worried if Coffey and Billings are out. Howard is the Dream's star and she's questionable. It's a nice bonus if she does play, but I'll still take the Dream with this many points regardless of her status. |
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07-19-22 | Liberty +8 v. Sun | 63-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Connecticut is right there with Chicago, Las Vegas, Washington and Seattle among the top five teams in the WNBA. There's a dropoff after those teams. But this is too many points for the Sun to be laying especially since they won't have Jonquel Jones. She leads Connecticut in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Jones tested positive for COVID-19. New York has been very tough on the road going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS during its last seven away contests. During this span, the Liberty has posted straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs against the Aces, Sun and Mystics. The Liberty doesn't lack for talent with Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard among the best players in the league. New York shouldn't lack motivation either after an embarrassing 34-point home loss to the Aces this past Thursday. While the Liberty was idle for the past four days, the Sun last played two days ago in an emotional home game against the Aces. This is Connecticut's fourth game in seven days and they are short-handed without Jones. |
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07-17-22 | Lynx v. Mystics -4.5 | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Minnesota has been playing better. However, this is just a brutal spot for the Lynx. It's their fourth game in six days. Word has it, too, that the Lynx had airline trouble on their way back from Indiana after beating the Fever two days ago. The Mystics had won four of their last five until losing three days ago to the Mercury in Phoenix. The Mystics are rested and ready now. They have the top defense in the league and also the best point spread record at 16-10 ATS.
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07-16-22 | Sky -4.5 v. Wings | 89-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Both teams are in action for the third time in six days. That's a heavy load in the WNBA. Chicago, though, is the best team in the league. One reason why the defending champion Sky are so good is their deep bench. Chicago is off double-digit victories against the Dream and Sparks aided by its deep roster. The Sky are 8-1 in their last nine games. The 18-6 Sky now draw another below .500 opponent in the Wings. The Sky won't play again for four more days. So they should be focused. Candace Parker certainly should be motivated. She was held scoreless for the first time in her 15-year WNBA career in Chicago's last game. |
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07-15-22 | Lynx -3 v. Fever | 87-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Minnesota is in must-win mode after losing, 92-87, at home to the Wings on Thursday. The Lynx are 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. The Lynx also have double revenge motivation. They are a lot stronger now with Sylvia Fowles back in the lineup. Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA with a 5-20 record. Done for the season, the Fever are going with young players in rebuild mode. They have the worst defense in the league. |
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07-03-22 | Mystics v. Sun -5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a battle of the second and third-best teams in the Eastern Conference, who are in back of the defending champion Chicago Sky. Connecticut is 7-2 in its last nine games if you take away two losses the Sun suffered to the Sky, who are tied for the best record in the WNBA with Las Vegas at 15-5. The Sun have tremendous urgency here in protecting their home court. But the key is Elena Delle Donne is not going to play for Washington. She's a superstar and the Mystics' leading scorer at 15.3 points. She is being rested. Connecticut hosted Washington on May 28. Delle Donne did not play in that game either. The Sun won, 79-71. Washington is 1-3 the last four times Delle Donne has sat out. |
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07-01-22 | Fever +13.5 v. Storm | 57-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Fresh off a huge victory against Las Vegas two days ago, the Storm are in letdown mode hosting last-place Indiana. Seattle does not have a good track record in these situations: 8-22 ATS versus below .500 opponents, 3-10 ATS following a victory and 0-5 ATS the past five times hosting the Fever. Indiana should put forth an effort after being ripped by its coach following a blowout road loss to Phoenix two days ago. The Fever is capable of pulling off upsets. They've pulled off two of them in their last six games beating the defending champion Sky and Lynx. The Fever haven't matched up well against the rejuvenated Mercury losing to them three times in their last six games. But this is a different opponent. |
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06-30-22 | Dream v. Liberty -4.5 | 92-81 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
The Liberty has stepped up their game going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. New York beat Atlanta, 89-77, on the road in its last game six days ago. So the Liberty will be well rested for this rematch. They don't play again until Sunday so their focus should be there, too. Atlanta has been playing short-handed. The Dream have lost three in a row and carry a fatigue rating having just played two days ago, dropping a 92-74 game on the road to Washington. This is the Dream's third game in five days.
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06-25-22 | Mystics v. Aces -8 | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Four days. That's how long the Aces have had to stew about blowing a WNBA-record 28-point lead to the Sky in a 104-95 home loss to Chicago this past Tuesday. Elite coach Becky Hammon and her Aces, who own the best record in the WNBA at 13-3, finally get back on the court to host the struggling Mystics Saturday. I'm fully expecting the far more talented and thoroughly embarrassed Aces to bury the Mystics. Washington is 1-3 in its last four games. The Mystics are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. They are in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is their fifth straight different venue. There's a chance the Mystics rest their superstar player, Elena Delle Donne, like they have been doing. Delle Donne, who leads Washington in scoring at 15.3 points a game, played in the Mystics' previous game. That was an 85-71 loss to the Storm in Seattle. Fatigue might have gotten to the Mystics in that loss since they trailed by just two points in the fourth quarter. But even if Delle Donne plays, I see this as a blowout victory for the Aces. Washington only is averaging 72.2 points during its last four games. The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 91.5 points. Las Vegas has covered four of the past five times hosting the Mystics. |
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06-21-22 | Lynx +6 v. Mercury | 84-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
The season record shows the Lynx at 3-13. But Minnesota is a well-coached, spunky underdog. The Lynx usually can be counted on for a strong effort. That's certainly been the case recently. They nearly upset the Storm and Aces during their last two games. Minnesota has lost its last three games by a combined seven points. Phoenix has been a disappointment this season. The Mercury haven't won by more than five points in regulation in 12 of their last 14 games. They lack depth and have been horrible at closing games out. This is the largest Phoenix has been favored all season. One problem the Mercury have had is the on-going saga of their star big player, seven-time All-Star Brittney Griner. She's been detained in Russia since February. This has been a constant black cloud and distraction for the team. Members of the Mercury just met with State Department officials recently to try to get Griner released. Her safety remains a constant worry for her teammates. This is what veteran guard Diana Taurasi said, "We want (Griner) to come home as soon as possible; it's No. 1 on our list.'' The Lynx don't have that distraction. They are desperate for a victory having come so close recently against better competition. |
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06-19-22 | Lynx +15.5 v. Aces | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
The Lynx are 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 times against the Aces when playing in Las Vegas. This includes covering a 10-point spread against the Aces on May 19. Minnesota nearly upset Seattle in its last game five days ago, losing by two points as an 8 1/2-point 'dog. The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. But their bench isn't very good. So the backdoor should remain open if the Aces were to build a big lead. If you exclude the Sparks, the Aces have only one win by more than 12 points during their last eight games. |
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06-16-22 | Mystics v. Liberty +4.5 | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Sparked by star guard Sabrina Ionescu, who finally has managed to stay healthy, the Liberty has won four of their last six games while going 5-1 ATS. Ionescu has sparked this with her hot shooting, scoring 23 or more points in five of her last six games. The Liberty upset the Mystics, 74-70, on the road 13 days ago when Washington had its best player, Elena Delle Donne, in the lineup. Delle Donne is going to be rested in this game. The Mystics have covered just once in their last five games. They are dealing with a fatigue factor, too, playing for the fifth time in nine days. Washington also has a look-ahead game hosting the Sun next in a much bigger matchup.
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06-11-22 | Aces v. Sparks +7 | 89-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Aces may be the best team in the WNBA. But this spot sets up for the Sparks. Los Angeles is an underachieving 5-7 this season. I put a large part of that blame on the inept coaching of Derek Fisher and inconsistent play of four-time All-Star LIz Cambage. The Sparks finally had enough of Fisher. He was fired this past Tuesday. Assistant Fred Williams is the Sparks' interim coach now. He formerly coached at Utah, Atlanta and Dallas where Cambage played under him four years ago and had her best season. The Sparks should be extremely motivated in Williams' first game as their head coach. This is especially so for Cambage, who is going against her former Las Vegas teammates. If this isn't enough, the Sparks also have revenge for a bad, 104-76, road loss to Las Vegas on May 23. The Sparks have covered 13 of the last 18 times as a home 'dog. They are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've hosted Las Vegas. The Aces haven't played in six days. That's too much time off. So there could be a rust factor to their game. |
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06-10-22 | Dream v. Mercury -3 | Top | 88-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Given their talent level even without Brittney Griner, the Mercury have been a huge disappointment this season. But Phoenix finally is showing life. The Mercury have covered their last three games beating the Sparks and nearly upsetting powerful Connecticut and defending WNBA champion Chicago. Now the Mercury have their Revenge Game of the Year. The Dream embarrassed them on national television, 81-54, in Atlanta on May 29. Atlanta has tailed off since a surprising strong strong. The Dream have a losing record in their last seven games. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times as underdogs and have failed to cover during five of their last six visits to Phoenix. Look for the Mercury to go full throttle in getting their revenge. |
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06-08-22 | Fever +15.5 v. Sun | 69-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Yes, the Fever have the worst record in the WNBA at 3-10. However, they've only lost two games by more than 14 points. The situation lays out for an Indiana cover against what I see as an inflated point spread. Connecticut is coming off a four-game West Coast trip that was highlighted by a pair of marquee games against Las Vegas. The Sun concluded their road swing with a 93-86 victory against the Storm this past Sunday. The Sun are 1-4 ATS following a victory. This is Connecticut's first home game since May 28. The Sun have a much bigger game on Friday when they host the defending champion Chicago Sky. I envision the Fever playing with a lot of intensity here. They have double revenge. The Sun, on the other hand, are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot. |
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06-05-22 | Mystics +6.5 v. Sky | 82-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
First the bad news in backing the Mystics. No Elena Delle Donne, who is their leading scorer and best player. This is a rest game for her. That's built into the line, though. So I'll take this many points based on the situation and spot. This is a battle for second place in the Eastern Conference. The Mystics are used to playing without Delle Donne, who frequently has rest days. Washington is coming off a bad Friday home loss to the Liberty as a 12-point favorite. Washington has covered its last five road games. I think the Mystics give the Sky their best punch. Chicago is 7-17 ATS as a home favorite the past 24 times. Chicago's last five victories have been by an average of fewer than six points. The Mystics lost earlier to the Sky at home, but are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing them in Chicago. The Sky loses some of its home court advantage because they had to fly in from Atlanta late Friday night following a hard-fought win against the Dream. |
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06-03-22 | Sun v. Mercury +5 | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rotten timing for the Sun. Connecticut just upset Las Vegas, 97-90, last night in perhaps its most satisfying victory of the season. Now the Sun have to play for the second time in two nights and third time in four days against a rested and desperate Phoenix squad. All of the Sun's top players logged more than 31 minutes against the Aces last night. Connecticut is 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. Phoenix is in dire need of a victory having lost six in a row. The Mercury, though, covered against the Sky losing by three points as a nine-point road 'dog in their last game. That was three days ago. So the Mercury should be much more rested and prepared than Connecticut. This is their first home game since May 19 so they should be fired-up. The Mercury have talented and prideful players - Skylar Diggins-Smith, Tina Charles, Diamond DeShields and the always fiery Diana Taurasi. |
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06-02-22 | Sun +4.5 v. Aces | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
The Aces are proving to be the best team in the Western Conference. The Sun could be the top team in the Eastern Conference. The teams met two days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won, 89-81. The Aces were 4-point favorites in that game. The line is slightly higher now so I'm going to get involved with Connecticut in this rapid revenge, short turnaround. The Sun are 8-2 ATS following a loss. They also are 9-3 ATS the past dozen times when playing on one day's rest. Connecticut is the No. 2 offensive team in the WNBA behind the Aces and ranks third defensively. Las Vegas is sixth defensively. I believe the Sun will be more prepared and play better against the Aces than they did on Tuesday. The Aces went with a zone defense against the Sun. Connecticut had trouble denting it, making just six of 22 3-pointers. The Sun only made 7 of 12 free throws for 58 percent. The Aces, on the other hand, hit 17 of 20 free throws. That's quite a free throw disparity. Reigning WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones had a bad game for the Sun, scoring just eight points. Brionna Jones, who is the Sun's fourth-best player, played fewer than 19 minutes due to foul trouble. Look for Jones and the Sun to shoot better and get a better free throw breakdown. This should lead to a cover if not outright upset win. |
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05-31-22 | Wings +1.5 v. Sparks | 91-93 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Derek Fisher's poorly coached Sparks have not beaten a winning team since their opener. I don't believe they'll end that streak against the 5-3 Wings. Dallas is stepping down in class after splitting a pair of road games against Connecticut, the best team in the Eastern Conference. This is the Wings' first game in five days so they will be well rested and prepared. The Sparks, on the other hand, will be in action for the fifth time in nine days. LA could have a shorthanded backcourt with Jordan Canada and Lexie Brown both questionable. Canada is the Sparks' third-leading scorer and top assists person. Dallas has covered 20 of the last 27 times as a road 'dog. The Sparks are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing an above .500 opponent.
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05-29-22 | Mercury v. Dream | 54-82 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Phoenix is off to a slow start at 2-5. But the Mercury have shown their veteran skill set with a pair of victories against the Storm. They also have back star guard Skyler Diggins-Smith, who is coming off a 28-point game. I like Phoenix's depth in the backcourt with Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, Diamond DeShields and Shey Peddy. The Dream has crashed back to Earth after a fast start with consecutive losses to the Mystics by a combined 25 points. The Mercury has covered six of the last seven in the series. |
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05-27-22 | Liberty +12.5 v. Storm | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Seattle has a strong pedigree. But right now Seattle just isn't that good. The Storm are a .500 team that could be 1-5 if not for close victories against the Sky and Sparks. Phoenix's only two wins this season have come against the Storm. The Storm rank 10th in scoring and are last in field goal percentage. Seattle has failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times it has been favored. So I believe the Liberty can hang within single digits. They have better talent than their 1-5 record indicates. New York should have defeated the improved Lynx on the road this past Tuesday. The Liberty blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead. Minnesota made 27 of 33 free throws in that game.
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05-26-22 | Wings v. Sun -7 | 68-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Short home revenge for Connecticut after the Wings upset the Sun, 85-77, on the road two days ago. That loss snapped a four-game Connecticut win streak. The Sun may not have had their full focus for that game after finding out that day that their starting point guard, Jasmine Thomas, will miss the rest of the season because of a torn ACL. Thomas has been a veteran leader for the Sun the past seven seasons. The Wings have firepower, but the Sun should be highly motivated for this game. The Sun still have excellent talent with Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones. They've helped the Sun rank as the No. 2 scoring team in the league. Connecticut has adequate replacements for Thomas. |
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05-24-22 | Fever +13.5 v. Sky | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
The Sky and a happy Candace Parker are coming off a highly-satisfying national TV road win against the Mystics this past Sunday. Parker scored a triple-double against Washington. It was much celebrated since Parker was the oldest player in WNBA history to achieve that. Now the Sky get the rebuilding Fever, losers of four in a row. Following this game, Chicago gets Las Vegas at home up next. The Aces have the best record in the WNBA. So the situation sets up well for Indiana catching the Sky in a flat spot off a big win and with a huge look-ahead game. The Sky are 1-7-1 ATS the past nine times when meeting a foe with a losing record. Indiana is 10-3 ATS the last 13 times following a loss. |
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05-23-22 | Sparks v. Aces -10 | 76-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
The Aces are really dangerous now that they have an elite coach in Becky Hammon. So it's no surprise the Aces have the best record in the WNBA at 6-1 (5-2 ATS). This is the Aces' final game of their homestand. They won't play again for five days before taking on the Sky in Chicago. The Sparks have always been a rivalry matchup for the Aces. So I see Las Vegas being up for this game. The Sparks are inconsistent as they have been during the Derek Fisher coaching era. LA has lost four in a row going 1-3 ATS. The Sparks are 2-6 ATS following a loss. I see a motivated Aces squad covering a double-digit spread at home here. |
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05-21-22 | Lynx +5 v. Wings | 78-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The Lynx are 1-5, but 1-1 since Kayla McBride made her season debut. Minnesota defeated the Sparks and hung in against the Aces during its current road trip going 2-0 ATS. Now they Lynx get the Wings, who are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. Dallas is off a huge, 94-84, win against the Mercury from two days ago. So this is a potential letdown spot for Dallas. Minnesota has covered five of the past six in the series.
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05-20-22 | Fever +14 v. Sun | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Until getting buried, 101-79, by the Dream this past Tuesday, Indiana had not lost a game by more than 14 points in any of its six games. Fever coach Marianne Stanley ripped her team following that loss questioning the Fever's effort and intensity among other things. So the Fever should be primed for a big effort here. Connecticut is fat and happy off a 92-65 victory against New York this past Tuesday. The Sun forced 32 turnovers in that win. Indiana turned the ball over only 12 times in its loss to the Dream. The Fever also held a rebound edge. Atlanta, though, was hot making 54 percent from the floor, including 10-of-22 3-pointers. It was a combination of poor defense by Indiana and excellent shooting by Atlanta. The Fever are 9-3 ATS following a loss. The Sun has played just three games. Indiana has played twice as many games. The teams meet again Sunday in Indianapolis. So the Sun won't likely want to run up a score knowing there would be a rapid revenge factor. This could leave the backdoor open in case Connecticut does build up a big advantage. |
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05-19-22 | Lynx +11 v. Aces | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
After an 0-4 start, the Lynx got their first win two nights ago beating the Sparks, 87-84. It was not a coincidence that it was Kayla McBride's season debut after returning from Turkey where she led her team to a Turkish title. Minnesota is a much better team with McBride on the court. The Lynx can stay within double-digits of the Aces, who are 2-5 ATS following a win and 1-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Lynx, on the other hand, are 12-4-1 ATS following a victory.
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05-11-22 | Storm -4.5 v. Mercury | 77-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
I want the prideful, well-coached Storm off a bad loss to Las Vegas in their last game. The Mercury are down a number of key players. They will be missing Kia Nurse and Brittney Griner and also are likely to be without Brianna Turner and Diamond DeShields. The Storm has covered five of the last seven times in Phoenix. |
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05-10-22 | Aces v. Mystics +5.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
The Aces blew out the Phoenix Mercury, who were missing Brittney Griner. They then beat the Seattle Storm, who were missing their starting center. So the Aces enter this matchup fat and happy. Washington is 6-2 ATS as a home 'dog while the Aces have failed to cover five of the last seven times as chalk.
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10-17-21 | Mercury v. Sky -4 | 74-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggs-Smith and Brittany Griner are great players who have tremendous pride. They will try to dig deep to keep Phoenix alive down 2-1 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series. But Chicago is playing too well, has home-court - which can not be underestimated - and isn't carrying the fatigue factor Phoenix is. The Sky blew out the Mercury, 86-50, two days ago in front of a home sell-out crowd of 10,378. If the Sky play as well as they did Friday, they will be the champions. There's no reason they shouldn't. Their defense has been stellar. Phoenix is lucky not to have been swept in this series having pulled off a home overtime victory in Game 2. Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper, Diamond DeShields and Courtney Vandersloot all are playing at high levels for Chicago. The Sky have gotten that important inside defense needed against Griner. The Mercury committed 17 turnovers in Game 3 while shooting just 25 percent from the field, the second-lowest percentage in WNBA Finals history. The Sky actually outscored Griner and the rest of the Mercury in the paint, 36-14. Phoenix has no chance if it is dominated inside like that. Some of the Mercury's problems are caused by fatigue. The league gave them no break starting the finals just two days after the Mercury won a hard-fought five-game series against the Aces. That took a huge physical and mental toll. This marks Phoenix's sixth game in 12 days.
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10-13-21 | Sky v. Mercury -3.5 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
This really is a must-win spot for Phoenix. If the Mercury lose they trail 2-0 in the best-of-five WNBA championship series and have to play in Chicago for Game 3. The Sky are playing their best ball. Granted. But they were in a great spot for Game 1 when they defeated the Mercury, 91-77, this past Sunday. Chicago had been idle for four days having taken out Connecticut in four games. The Mercury, meanwhile, had to come back and defeat Las Vegas on the road this past Friday to win the five-game Western Conference series. The Mercury were still feeling physically and mentally exhausted from nipping the Aces, 87-84, while being forced to play for the third time in five days. Now, though, the Mercury have had a chance to regroup. Brittney Griner gives Phoenix a dominating inside presence. Griner is having a strong postseason averaging 20.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. I don't see veteran stars Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith losing this clutch game and getting swept at home.
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10-10-21 | Sky +3 v. Mercury | 91-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The Mercury finds themselves at a real disadvantage in this first game of the WNBA championship series. Chicago has been idle for four days. The Sky knocked off Connecticut, the best defensive team in the league, in four games. They've been on the West Coast since Friday rested and ready. Phoenix gutted out a full five-game series against Las Vegas. They edged the Aces, 87-84, Friday night in Las Vegas. The Mercury accomplished this despite missing Kia Nurse and Sophia Cunningham. Those are two of their seven best players. Nurse is out for the season with a knee injury while Cunningham is questionable with a strained calf. This will be the Mercury's third game in five days. The Sky are playing their best defense of the season. They are far from the team that went 0-3 against the Mercury during the regular season. The Mercury beat Chicago by one point and in overtime during two of their victories. A key for the Sky will be limiting the inside presence of Brittney Griner. They kept Sun's superstar Jonquel Jones in check with strong inside defense. They have the depth to do this against Griner, too.
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