|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-12-22||Astros v. Twins UNDER 8.5||5-0||Win||100||6 h 45 m||Show|
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 8.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's matchups between the Twins and Astros. Houston will have Luis Garcia on the mound, while Minnesota gives the rock to Josh Winder. These are not starters the general public sees as elite, but they are off to really good starts in 2022 and that's where I feel the value comes from.
Garcia has made 5 starts and has posted a 3.45 ERA with a sensational 0.872 WHIP. He's really been good on the road, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two starts. Winder's only made 2 starts, but he's been nearly perfect, giving up 0 ER on just 5 hits and 1 BB with 15 K's in 12 innings. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10
|05-11-22||Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5||Top||110-107||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 214.5)
I will take my chances with the UNDER 214.5 in Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks. I always lean UNDER in Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2, as it just has that Game 7 feel to it with both teams desperately wanting to get a win to take control of the series. We saw the UNDER cash in this spot in both games last night.
The two teams did go OVER the total in Game 4, but note that was the first time this entire postseason that a game involving the Bucks finished OVER the total. UNDER is 8-1. I just think that given what's at stake, it's going to be hard for both teams to get to 100 points and I wouldn't be shocked if neither team did. Give me the UNDER 214.5!
Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)
|05-10-22||Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8||3-9||Loss||-100||14 h 54 m||Show|
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Marlins. I just don't see a lot of runs being scored with the two guys who are starting this game.
Miami's Jesus Luzardo has really been impressive early on. He had one sub-par outing against the Cardinals. The rest have been great. In 4 of his 5 starts he's given up 2 or fewer runs. He's also making a lot of guys swing and miss. He's got 35 K's in 26 1/3 innings.
Madison Bumgarner is no longer overpowering hitters, but almost feels like the lack of strikeouts have him way undervalued. He's sitting there with a 1.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 6 starts. Having pitched just 1 inning (was ejected from his last start) since 4/29, he should be in prime form tonight. Give me the UNDER 8!
Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)
|05-09-22||Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 212||116-108||Loss||-110||9 h 23 m||Show|
NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 212)
We just keep playing the UNDER in the Bucks playoff games and will continue to do so as long as the books keep giving us this value. The UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoffs games (5-0 in Bulls series and now 3-0 in this series).
I've said it multiple times playing the UNDER in this series that I just think these two teams are so good defensively that it's going to be a struggle for them to get to 100 points. We have seen each team fail to score 90 in a game this series. We also saw a mere 195 points scored in Game 2 with both teams shooting close to 47% from the field. Give me the UNDER 212!
Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)
|05-07-22||Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 213||Top||101-103||Win||100||17 h 8 m||Show|
NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 213)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 213 in Game 3 between the Bucks and Celtics. The UNDER has cashed in each of the first two games of this series and is now a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoff games.
These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. With the series tied at 1-1, you got to think both of these teams are going to be locked in on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind we saw both teams shoot close to 47% in Game 2 and yet they still only combined for 195 points. I've said it in each of the first two games. It's going to be a struggle for both teams to hit that 100 point mark. Give me the UNDER 213!
Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)
|05-06-22||Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5||1-4||Win||100||14 h 45 m||Show|
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's matchup between Colorado and Arizona. I think a lot of people think the Rockies are this strong offensive team because of all the runs they score at home, which in turn creates value when they are on the road. Colorado is only scoring 3.1 runs/game away from home. Arizona can't score at home. Dbacks are averaging just 2.9 runs/game at home in 2022.
We also got two really good and very underrated starters going in Chad Kuhl and Merrill Kelly. Kuhl has a 1.90 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in 4 starts. Kelly has a 1.27 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 5 starts. UNDER is 4-0 in Kuhl's 4 starts and 4-1 in Kelly's 5 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)
|05-04-22||76ers v. Heat UNDER 207.5||103-119||Loss||-108||12 h 52 m||Show|
NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (UNDER 207.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 2 between the Heat and 76ers. We played and won on the UNDER at 209 in Game 1. That game ended with Miami winning 106-92. It was almost like Miami flipped a switch in the 2nd half, as they went from being down 50-51 to winning by 14. 76ers only managed 41 points in the 2nd half. I don't think it's going to get any easier for them offensively now that Miami knows what they want to do without Embiid.
Philly isn't going to just lie down because they don't have Embiid. They will fight and I think they are good enough defensively to keep the Heat's offense in check, especially with Miami having to play another game without point guard Kyle Lowry. I just think it will once again be a struggle for both of these teams to get to 100. Give me the UNDER 207.5!
Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)
|05-03-22||Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10||10-2||Win||100||13 h 59 m||Show|
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 10 in Tuesday's series opener between the Rockies and Nationals. Washington's offense hasn't been great overall so far in 2022, but they are coming off their best 3-game series at San Francisco. Nationals put up 25 runs on 35 hits against the Giants and did so with SF sending out a pretty good trio of starters in Wood, Webb and Cobb.
Not only does that offense get the benefit of hitting at the best offensive park in baseball at Coors Field, but the Rockies German Marquez has a 5.57 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 4 starts and a 7.71 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Rockies just scored 24 runs, hitting double-digits twice, in their 3 game series at home against the Reds. They are hitting .287 with a .356 OBP as a team at home this year. Washington's Erik Fedde has a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 4 starts and that's come against the Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates and Mets. Give me the OVER 10!
Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)
|05-02-22||76ers v. Heat UNDER 209||Top||92-106||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 209)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER at 209 in Game 1 between the 76ers and Heat. Two big names for both sides will be out of this one. Joel Embiid is out until at least Game 3 and Kyle Lowry will miss the game for Miami.
Embiid is an absolute massive blow to the 76ers, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't see the likes of Harden/Maxey/Harris having a lot of success against this Miami defense. There's going to be no easy buckets for Philly.
Embiid is also a big part of the 76ers' defense, but they can still be good on that side without him. It also helps them that the Lowry, Miami's floor general, won't be on the floor. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 209!
Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)
|05-01-22||Reds v. Rockies OVER 10.5||1-10||Win||100||16 h 58 m||Show|
MLB OVER/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10.5)
I will take my chances with the Rockies and Reds going OVER the total of 10.5 on Sunday. I've not played many overs this year, but this is one that I like quite a bit. You always feel a lot better about needing runs in games played at Coors Field.
Even more so when you got a sub-par pitching matchup like we have in this one. Cincinnati is going with Reiver Sanmartin, who is 0-3 with a 16.04 ERA and 2.533 WHIP in 3 starts. He's given up at least 5 runs in each of his outings.
Colorado will have Kyle Freeland on the mound. He's 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in 4 starts. His only decent outing has came on the road. He's got a 7.71 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his 3 home starts. Even a bad Reds offense should manage at least 5 runs in this one. Give me the OVER 10.5!
Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)
|05-01-22||Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 218||Top||101-89||Win||100||14 h 6 m||Show|
NBA Playoffs Round 2 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 218)
I absolutely love the UNDER at 218 in Game 1 of the Celtics/Bucks series. I think these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The transformation that Boston has had defensively from the start of the year to now is pretty remarkable.
That defense just made KD look like an average player in their sweep of the Nets in the first round. Now they face a Bucks team down one of their top scorers in Middleton.
Milwaukee might not be on the Celtics level defensively, but they aren't far behind. The Bucks defense dominated a pretty good Bulls offense in the first round. It will be much harder against Boston, but they are up to the task. Getting to 100 points will be a struggle for both sides. Give me the UNDER 218!
Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10)
|04-30-22||Twins v. Rays UNDER 7.5||9-1||Loss||-120||7 h 50 m||Show|
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5)
I will take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's AL matchup between the Rays and Twins. Just love the pitching matchup in his one and runs aren't easy to come by at Tampa Bay.
Rays will have Shane McClanahan on the mound. He's got a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in 4 starts. Arguably his best outing coming in his last start, where he allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings at home against the Red Sox.
Chris Archer will get the ball for the Twins. He still walks too many guys, but he's only given up 4 ER on 9 hits in 11 1/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)
|04-29-22||Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 229||114-106||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER (Under 229)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 229 in Game 6 between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies. UNDER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 games in the series. As good as these two offenses are, a lot has to go right for a playoff game to get into the 230s, especially this late in a series when the teams know all the offensive sets the other team wants to run. Strictly a value play for me. Give me the UNDER 229!
Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)
|04-28-22||Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5||1-5||Win||100||12 h 56 m||Show|
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
Love the value here with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's game between the Cubs and Braves. Atlanta's offense has gone cold of late and will be up against one of Chicago's better starters in Drew Smyly. In 3 starts, Smyly has a 2.45 ERA and 1.022 WHIP. He's not allowed a run in 9 2/3 innings over 2 road starts.
Cubs offense has failed to deliver more times than not and will be up against a red-hot Kyle Wright, who has a 1.06 ERA and 0.765 WHIP in his first 3 starts. What really stands out about Wright's strong start, is the 26 K's he racked up in just 17 innings of work. Hard time seeing the Cubs offense do much of anything in this one. Play the UNDER 8.5!
Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)
|04-27-22||Guardians v. Angels UNDER 7.5||5-9||Loss||-108||12 h 43 m||Show|
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 7.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's game between the Angels and Guardians. After that crazy hot start to the season, Cleveland's offense has completely fallen off a cliff. They have scored a mere 7 runs on 17 hits in their last 4 games combined, scoring a whopping 3 runs in their last 3 games. Now they face one of the best pitchers in the game in Shohei Ohtani, who has a ridiculous 26 K's in 14 1/3 innings of work.
Key here is the Guardians also have a pretty good starter going in Zach Plesac, who has a 1.53 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Getting to 3 runs is going to be a challenge for both of these teams. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)
|04-22-22||White Sox v. Twins UNDER 7.5||1-2||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's AL Central showdown between the Twins and White Sox. I just don't see either of these teams generating many scoring chances.
Chicago will have Michael Kopech on the mound and he's one of the bright young starters in the game. He's been outstanding to start 2022, posting a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in his first 2 starts. He's also facing a Twins offense that has scored just 4 runs in their last 3 games combined.
Minnesota will counter with Bailey Ober, who has a respectable 3.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his first two start. Ober struggled some in his first outing against the Mariners, but bounced back and didn't give up an ER in 6 innings at Boston last time out. White Sox have scored 3 or fewer in 7 straight games and are hitting just .185 as a team vs left-handed starters this season. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)
|04-20-22||Diamondbacks v. Nationals UNDER 8||11-2||Loss||-100||9 h 1 m||Show|
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I think we are getting big time value with the UNDER at 8 in Wednesday's game between the Nationals and Diamondbacks.
Arizona can't score. They have totaled just 1 run in their last 3 games and have scored 3 or fewer in 9 of their last 10 games. No reason to expect that to change in this one. Washington's Erick Fedde has allowed 2 runs in 5 innings in each of his first two starts.
On the flip side of this I think Arizona's Merrill Kelly is one of the more underrated starters early on in 2022. Kelly has not allowed a run in two starts, striking out 13 in 9 1/3 innings. Those weren't some pushover opponents, as he's faced the Padres and Astros. Washington's offense isn't as bad as Arizona, but it's not very good. Nats are scoring just 2.5 runs/game at home. Play the UNDER 8!
Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)
|04-13-22||Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 9||4-6||Loss||-115||10 h 54 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's game between the White Sox and Mariners. Seattle has struggled to score. They are only averaging 2.4 runs/game and are hitting .183 (29th) as a team. Their highest output of the season is 4 runs.
So while we haven't seen Dallas Keuchel yet, you got to like his chances of keeping this Mariners offense in check. I also don't see the White Sox offense going off in this game. Seattle will have their new ace on the mound in Robbie Ray. He didn't disappoint in his first start, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings of a 2-1 win at Minnesota. Give me the UNDER 9!
|04-13-22||Hornets v. Hawks UNDER 236||Top||103-132||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 236)
We saw both play-in games last night go UNDER the total. The Clippers/Wolves only combined for 213 with a total of 231. The Nets/Cavs did come close with 223 and a total of 227, but that was with a 65-point 4th quarter.
That's just a prime example of how much better the defense gets in the postseason. That was with neither of those teams being eliminated with a loss. Tonight it's win or go home for these 9/10 matchups.
As good as these two offenses are and how both can struggle defensively at times, the total shouldn't be in the high 230s! Give me the UNDER 236!
|04-13-22||Astros v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5||2-3||Win||100||6 h 38 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER (Under 8.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Astros. This just feels like too big a number given the matchup.
Arizona's offense has struggled to get going and that's putting in nicely. The Dbacks as a team have a .130 batting average, by far the worst in the game. Hard to see them getting on track against Houston's Framber Valdez. He allowed just 2 hits with 6 K's in 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his first start.
The key here is I think Houston is also going to struggle to put up runs. Arizona's Merrill Kelly was sharp in his first start of 2022, striking out 7 in 4 scoreless innings. Houston is probably going to have a top tier offense, but right now they rank in the bottom half in both avg and OBP. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|04-12-22||Marlins v. Angels UNDER 9.5||3-4||Win||100||19 h 4 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 9.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 9.5 in Tuesday's interleague matchup between the Angels and Marlins. I think we have an under the radar pitching duel in this one with Miami's Jesus Luzardo and LA's Patrick Sandoval.
Luzardo is a highly touted prospect that has been a bit of a disappointment. However, he's in his first season with the Marlins. There's been talks they have got him on track and it certainly appeared that way in spring training. Luzardo allowed just 1 ER in 11 2/3 innings of work, good for a 0.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
As for Sandoval, he's coming off a quietly good 2021 campaign, posting a 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 87 innings. Big plus for him here is he's facing a sub-par Marlins offense. Miami has scored 2 or fewer in 3 of 4 games. In the one game they eclipsed 2 with 5 in the opener against the Giants, they scored 3 of those runs in the Top of the 9th. Give me the UNDER 9.5!
|04-09-22||Reds v. Braves OVER 10||1-2||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 10 between the Braves and Reds Saturday. These two teams scored 9 runs on Thursday and then combined for 13 on Friday. Expect more of the same on Saturday, as the starting pitching is not nearly as strong with Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds) and Kyle Wright (Braves) on the mound. The wind will also be blowing out to left center at close to 15 mph, which figures to help push at least a couple balls over the fence. Play the OVER 10!
|04-08-22||Mariners v. Twins UNDER 8||Top||2-1||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
50* (MLB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's AL matchup between the Twins and Mariners. You got the reigning AL Cy Young winner going for Toronto in Robbie Ray and one of my favorite breakout starters, Joe Ryan, on the mound for the Twins.
On top of that, these are not going to be scoring conditions with winds at 15 mph and the Temp in the 40s. Runs are going to be hard to come by for both sides. Give me the UNDER 8!
|03-30-22||Mavs v. Cavs OVER 212.5||Top||120-112||Win||100||9 h 55 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 212.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 212.5 in Wednesday's non-conference matchup between the Mavs and Cavs. I think it's going to be tough for Cleveland to stop the Mavs with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The defense has not been good since Allen went out and now they are really behind the 8-ball on that side of the ball with Mobley out.
As for the Mavs, I don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to be anywhere close to their best on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas hosted the Jazz on Sunday and then hosted the Lakers last night. Mavs are also sitting good in the standings, at 4th place in the West, 2 games in front of the Jazz and Nuggets. Easy spot for them to just go through the motions defensively. Give me the OVER 212.5!
|03-29-22||Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 232||Top||118-116||Loss||-110||9 h 42 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 232)
I love the UNDER 232 in Tuesday's Eastern Conference showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. This feels like a game where both of these teams are going to bring it. Both of these teams think they are the team to beat in the East and both are just 1-game back of the Heat for the No. 1 seed.
You also got both of these teams not just coming off a loss, but coming off a game where they didn't play well. Milwaukee got steamrolled by 25 at Memphis on Saturday and the 76ers lost by 10 at Phoenix.
UNDER is 5-0 in Philly's last 5 as a home favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 at home with a total of 22 or more. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 off 2 days of rest, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Give me the UNDER 232!
|03-23-22||Warriors v. Heat UNDER 211.5||118-104||Loss||-110||10 h 40 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 211.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 211.5 between the Warriors and Heat. Golden State has not played great without Steph Curry and Draymond called out their lackluster play after the most recent loss at Orlando. I think we get a pretty big effort here from the Warriors against a top tier team like Miami.
Key here is Golden State has to really rely on their defense without Curry. They have scored 88, 108 and 90 in their last 3 games. It won't be any easier against a very good Miami defense. I just don't see enough offense from the Warriors to get this into the 210s. Give me the UNDER 211.5!
|03-21-22||Heat v. 76ers UNDER 215.5||Top||106-113||Loss||-110||10 h 36 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 215.5)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215.5 in Monday's big Eastern Conference showdown between the Heat and 76ers. It not going to be playoff intensity, but I expect both teams to really be up for this game. This is Philly's last crack at catching the Heat for the No. 1 seed, as they are 3.5-back with just 11 games left for both teams.
Miami still has to hold of the Bucks, but would pretty much secure the No. 2 with a win. I also think there's also a little more incentive for the Heat with this being their first crack at Philly since they added James Harden.
I just see this being a defensive game. Both these teams rank in the bottom 10 in pace and are very strong defensively. They have played 3 times this season and the most they have combined for is 207 with 2 games failing to reach 200. Give me the UNDER 215.5!
|03-20-22||Pelicans v. Hawks OVER 231.5||117-112||Loss||-110||8 h 12 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 231.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 between the Hawks and Pelicans. I think we are getting a good number here due to Ingram being out for New Orleans and it looking like Trae Young could sit for the Hawks.
New Orleans' offense has been just fine without Ingram, as they got McCollum to shoulder the load. Atlanta jus scored 120 without Young against the Grizzlies.
You also got two teams who aren't exactly playing a ton of defense. Pelicans are allowing teams to shot 50% from the field over their last 5 and the Hawks are right there with them, giving up 49%. Look for a lot of offense in this one. Give me the OVER 231.5!
|03-04-22||Cavs v. 76ers OVER 216.5||119-125||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 216.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 216.5 in Friday's game between the Cavs and 76ers. Philadelphia was a good offensive team before they traded for James Harden. With him, they have taken their offense to a whole different level. In the 3 games with Harden Philly has scored 133, 125 and 123 points respectively. All 3 of those games have ween over the total.
Cleveland's defense has been one of their strengths this season, but they aren't defending well since the break. They just gave up 119 at home to the Hornets and the game prior to that they allowed 127 to the Timberwolves at home.
I just don't see Cleveland being able to hold this explosive 76ers offense under 120 points and at the same time you got to like the Cavs being able to score at least 100. The total should not be less than 220. Give me the OVER 216.5!
|02-13-22||Wolves v. Pacers OVER 236.5||129-120||Win||100||5 h 13 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 236.5)
I got no problem laying the big number with the OVER 236.5 in Sunday's NBA game between the Pacers and Timberwolves. The OVER has been a money-maker of late in Minnesota games, cashing in 15 of their last 18 games. In 5 of their last 6 games they have seen a combined score in the 140s with the only exception coming against an awful Pistons team and even that game saw a respectable 123 points.
Indiana is a complete mess on the defensive end as they are adjusting to a slew of new players and continue to play without some of their key pieces. Pacers are giving up 118.4 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5.
Key here is the Pacers should be able to keep pace for the most part with Minnesota's offense, especially playing at home. Indiana has some guys who can score the ball and the Timberwolves are giving up 117.1 ppg on the road this season and have allowed 120.4 ppg over their last 5. Give me the OVER 236.5!
|02-13-22||Maryland v. Purdue OVER 147||61-62||Loss||-110||3 h 60 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 147)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 147 between Purdue and Maryland. In the Terps last two games their defense has given up 82 to Ohio State and 110 to Iowa. Buckeyes rank 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, while the Hawkeyes are 5th. Now they face a Boilermakers team that is No. 1 in the country in that departement. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Purdue hit the century mark. You know they are going to be motivated offensively after scoring just 58 points in a blowout loss at Michigan last time out.
The key here is that Purdue is far from a great offensive team, so we should see Maryland have a strong day offensively as well. The Boilermakers are just 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and 11th in effective FG% defense. My numbers have this thing closer to 155 than 145. Give me the OVER 147!
|02-10-22||Clippers v. Mavs OVER 214.5||Top||105-112||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 214.5)
I really like the OVER 214.5 in Thursday's game between Los Angeles and Dallas. The Clippers have shown no interest in getting stops of late. LA gave up 137 at home to the Bucks on Sunday and then turned around and gave up 135 at Memphis on Tuesday. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field, with 3 of the last 4 eclipsing 51%. No surprise the OVER 7-1-1 in their last 4 games.
I don't see that defense flipping a switch against a good Mavs team, especially with how well Luka Doncic is playing right now. Doncic is averaging 31.0 ppg, 11.8 apg and 9.0 rpg in 4 games this month.
Dallas does have a good defense, but LA's not been held under 100 points since scoring 94 against the Spurs way back on Jan. 15. I think as long as the Clippers can get to the century mark, this think will easily go over the number. Give me the OVER 214.5!
|02-08-22||Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 227||109-135||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 227)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 227 in Tuesday's matchup between the Clippers and Grizzlies. I see this thing easily getting to 230. Memphis has scored 118 or more points in each of their last 6 games. Grizzlies figures to look to really push the pace in this one, as they will have fresh legs, playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.
As for the Clippers, they have scored 110+ points in 7 straight games and the recent addition of Norman Powell only bolsters their offense. Powell scored 28 points in just 24 minutes in his debut with LA after being acquired in a trade with Portland.
You also have to look at what the Clippers have been doing defensively here of late. LA's really struggled on that side of the ball, giving up 120+ in 3 of their last 5. Memphis is also no juggernaut defensively. Give me the OVER 227!
|02-05-22||Illinois v. Indiana UNDER 137.5||74-57||Win||100||2 h 19 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER (Under 137.5)
The two best defensive teams in the Big Ten will be facing off in this game and I just see too much value at 137.5 to not take a shot on the UNDER. Illinois is only giving up 66.4 ppg in Big Ten play and Indiana allows a mere 63.8 ppg.
Not that long ago we saw Indiana host Purdue, who is statistically the best offense in the country. Boilermakers have a 116 OE (Offensive Efficiency) rating and the next best is Michigan at 110.8. That game only saw 133 points scored and that was with both teams having a pretty good shooting night.
I think the fact that Indiana is favored (-1.5) also tells you a lot about how the books think this game will go. They think the Hoosiers can win this game and I believe that a low-scoring ugly game is their ticket to success. Give me the UNDER 137.5!
|02-02-22||Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 224.5||Top||104-108||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 224.5)
This is an easy play on the UNDER at 224.5 in Wednesday's game between the Nuggets and Jazz. Utah is dealing with some serious injury problems right now. Already without arguably their two best players in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, the Jazz just lost their top reserve, Joe Ingles, to a season-ending injury. They could also be without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable with a back injury.
As for the Nuggets, they don't figure to be looking to push the pace in this one. Denver has to be running on fumes, as they will be playing on no rest after a game last night in Minnesota. It's also their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 224.5!
|01-30-22||Blazers v. Bulls OVER 228.5||116-130||Win||100||6 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 228.5)
I really like the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Bulls and Blazers. I think this game easily gets into the 230's. Both of these teams come into this game really feeling good about themselves offensively. In Portland's last two games they have shot 51.2% against the Mavs and 56.8% against the Rockets. Similar story for the Bulls, who have shot 54.8% against the Raptors and 52.3% against the Spurs in their last two.
Both teams are also not at full strength defensively. Chicago is without two of their best perimeter defenders in Ball and Caruso, while the Blazers recently loss one of their better defenders in Nassir Little. Give me the OVER 228.5!
|01-28-22||Blazers v. Rockets OVER 231.5||125-110||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 231.5)
I'm going to take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Blazers and Rockets. I've been backing Portland quite a bit of late, but just don't like the spot here with this being the Blazers 4th game in 6 days and Houston playing on a full 2 days of rest.
I think this has a good chance to be the highest scoring game of the night. Portland's defense has taken a huge hit with the loss of Nassir Little and one of their other better defenders, Robert Covington, is questionable with a knee injury. Add in the tough scheduling spot and I just don't see the Blazers having much to give on the defensive side.
Good news for the Blazers offense is the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. That combined with Houston playing at the fastest pace in the NBA this year, makes them a great OVER team when it's a plus matchup for their offense. Give me the OVER 231.5!
|01-22-22||Bengals v. Titans OVER 47.5||19-16||Loss||-110||6 h 54 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Bengals/Titans VEGAS INSIDER (Over 47.5)
I think we are going to see plenty of offensive fire-works in Saturday's AFC Divisional Round matchup between the Bengals and Titans. I just don't think either of these defenses are going to be able to slow down the other side.
I think Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense is peaking at the right time. They finished up the regular-season scoring 41 against Baltimore and 34 against KC before resting their starters in Week 18 against the Browns. They put up a respectable 26 last week against the Raiders in the Wild Card round, but that was about as bad an outcome they could have had. Cincinnati had to settle for 4 FGs and 3 of those were chip shots (35 yds or less).
Titans defense put up some impressive numbers down the stretch, but a lot of that is who they played. Tennessee had about as easy a schedule as you could imagine in the 2nd half. Big reason why they were able to secure the No. 1 seed.
On the flip side, you got Derrick Henry back for the Titans offense and he's up against a soft Bengals run defense. I do have some concerns about how effective Henry will be after the long break and coming off a pretty serious injury, but they don't call him the King for nothing.This is also not an elite Cincinnati defense. Titans can move the ball thru the air if they have to. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|01-22-22||Vanderbilt v. Florida OVER 138.5||42-61||Loss||-109||3 h 46 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 138.5)
This total is way too low. Neither of these defenses are all that great. Both are giving up 70+ ppg in conference play. Commodores have allowed 71.6 ppg and the Gators are allowing 73.4 ppg.
Both defense figure to struggle given the matchups. Florida's biggest weakness is defending the 3-pt shot. They rank 12th in the SEC in 3-PT% defense. Vanderbilt's strength offensively is there 3-PT shooting. They rank 4th in the SEC in that department.
The Gators offense is built to score inside the arc, as they are 2nd in the SEC in 2-PT% offense. That's where the Commodores defense struggles. Vandy is 2nd vs the 3-PT shot and 12th vs the 2-PT shot.
I got both teams eclipsing 70-points and even if one team fails to get there, we still got a great shot at cashing this ticket. Play the OVER 138.5!
|01-22-22||Syracuse v. Duke OVER 154||59-79||Loss||-110||2 h 52 m||Show|
40* (CBB) Early Bird Total KNOCKOUT (Over 154)
I don't think these two teams will have any problem eclipsing 154 points. Duke is going to be without freshman Trevor Keels, who has been a reliable 3-point shooter, but I don't think it matters in this matchup. The Orange aren't just one of the worst defensive teams in the ACC, they are 226th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 253rd in defensive effective FG%. They rank 277th in 2-PT% defense.
Duke should be able to do whatever they want offensively in this game and I got a hard time seeing them finishing with fewer than 80 points at home.
While the Blue Devils are good defensive team, they are far from elite and they are going to have their hands full against a very good Syracuse offense. Orange rank 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd in 3-PT%. They just played a game at home against Clemson that they won 91-78. That's where I see this game. Somewhere in the 160s. Give me the OVER 154!
|01-20-22||Pacers v. Warriors OVER 215||Top||121-117||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - TNT Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 215)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 215 between the Pacers and Warriors in the night cap of Thursday's TNT double-header. I just the market is low right now on this Golden State offense. The Warriors haven't exactly been lighting it up, as they have eclipsed 108 points just once in their 8 games and failed to even reach 100 in 5 of those games.
It's not so much execution as it is they just haven't shot well. Golden State has shot worse than 43% from the field in 7 of their last 8. Some of that likely has to do with them playing 6 of their last 8 on the road.
They only finished with 102 in their last game at home against Detroit, but they had 66 in the 1st half (scored 17 in the 3rd and 19 in the 4th). A lot of that is the game was over at the at half (GS led 66-38).
I think the offense could be in store for a big game here against a injury plagued and tired Pacers team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days on no rest after a thrilling 111-104 comeback win against the Lakers.
Note that Malcolm Brogdon has been on a minute restriction coming back from an achilles injury, so it's no guarantee he plays on the second of a back-to-back. Big man Domantas Sabonis injured his ankle. He finished the game, but head coach Rick Carlisle said it was "probably going to be significant." I just don't see a lot of defense being played for a Pacers team that hasn't been great on that side of the ball anyway. Give me the OVER 215
|01-16-22||Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 151.5||Top||81-71||Win||100||4 h 28 m||Show|
50* (CBB) Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 151.5)
I love the OVER 151.5 in Sunday's Big 10 showdown between Minnesota and Iowa. This Hawkeyes team is all offense and no defense. Iowa ranks No. 3 in the country in offensive efficiency and 160th in defensive efficiency. Their only hope of winning games against quality teams is to outscore them.
It's why they are 2-3 in Big Ten play, despite averaging 78.8 ppg. They give up 80.0 ppg. So while the Gophers are only scoring 64.8 ppg in Big Ten play, it would take a real bad shooting day for them to not get into the 70s at home against this Iowa defense.
The other big thing is, is this Minnesota defense doesn't figure to be able to slow down Iowa's offense. The Gophers are 12th out of 14 teams in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. I think this total should be closer to 160 than 150. Give me the OVER 151.5!
|01-16-22||Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 46.5||15-31||Win||100||3 h 4 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Eagles/Bucs VEGAS INSIDER (Under 46.5)
I really like the UNDER at 46.5 for Sunday's Wild Card opener between the Buccaneers and the Eagles. I think both teams could have a real tough time moving the football. Tampa Bay is not the offense it was to start the year. The losses of Brown and Godwin are huge and for as much hate AB gets, there's no denying the impact he had when he was on the field. I also think not having Fournette is a much bigger deal than people realize.
This is a game they really could have used him. With winds blowing at more than 20 mph straight down the field, the team going into the wind is really going to have to rely on running the ball.
While running the football is what this Eagles offense is built around, this Buccaneers front when they are locked in, are arguably the toughest front in the league to run the football against. I just don't see where the offense is going to come from to get in the upper 40s. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|01-15-22||Raiders v. Bengals UNDER 48.5||19-26||Win||100||7 h 33 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER (Under 48.5)
These two teams combined for just 45 points in their meeting during the regular season and they were lucky to get to that number. It was a 13-6 game going into the 4th quarter and 16-13 with just over 5 minutes to play. Neither team managed to eclipse 300 yards of total offense. Bengals had just 288 and the Raiders had 278.
While both of these teams have quarterbacks who can throw the ball and some guys who can go get it, the problem is both of these offensive lines aren't very good. The defensive lines for both of these teams should dominate this game. Mother Nature also figures to play a role in keeping it a little lower scoring with temps expected to be below freezing and a slight cross wind. Give me the UNDER 48.5!
|01-14-22||Mavs v. Grizzlies UNDER 215||112-85||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 215)
I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215 in Friday's ESPN matchup between the Grizzlies and Mavericks. The UNDER has cashed in 7 of the last 8 games for Dallas. The 7 games that went UNDER the total all saw 212 or fewer points scored. The only exception came against the Rockets.
Not only is Dallas defending well during this stretch, they like to slow the game down. While Memphis has been clicking offensively, I don't think they will mind the slower pace tonight. Grizzlies will be playing on no rest after hosting the T-Wolves last night. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Memphis is also a much better defensive team than people realize. Grizzlies rank 6th in the league in defensive efficiency. They have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 43.5% or worse from the field. Give me the UNDER 215!
|01-06-22||Clippers v. Suns OVER 220.5||89-106||Loss||-110||11 h 29 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 220.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 220.5 in tonight's matchup between the Clippers and Suns. I think with Phoenix forced to play small with Ayton and McGree, they are playing with a little more pace. They just finished up their two game road trip scoring 133 on 51% shooting at Charlotte and 123 on 54% shooting at New Orleans.
I got to think with this being a big game on TNT (these games get a lot more hype now that there's no football on Thursday nights), the Suns are going to want to put on a show.
The other big thing is the Clippers aren't exactly locking teams down on the defensive side of the ball. They have given up 116 points or more in each of their last 3 and teams are averaging a healthy 96.8 possessions per game in their last 4.
Clippers are also fairing better offensively here of late than you might think with Paul George sidelined. LA has shot 49% or better in each of their last 3. Give me the OVER 220.5!
|01-05-22||Heat v. Blazers OVER 216.5||115-109||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 216.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 216.5 in tonight's non-conference game between the Heat and Blazers. There's a lot of big names that won't be on the floor for both teams, which has created the value with the total.
Portland's been without Lillard and McCollum for a few games now. While the offensive numbers aren't all that great, it's the defense that has caught my attention. The Blazers are giving up 126.6 ppg on 54.5% shooting over their last 5 games.
Miami is a team that is known for playing good defense, but they aren't locking teams down right now with all the guys out. Heat have allowed 110 or more in each of their last 4. This is also a big flat spot for Miami who was at Golden State on Monday and next up after this game is a showdown at Phoenix with the Suns on Saturday. Give me the OVER 216.5!
|01-02-22||Lions v. Seahawks UNDER 41.5||29-51||Loss||-110||29 h 14 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 41.5)
I got no problem taking my chances with the UNDER 41.5 in Sunday's meaningless game between the Seahawks and Lions. Detroit's offense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season and Seattle has been no where close to efficient offensively as they have been in the past. Seahawks are only scoring 20.4 ppg, while the Lions are at 17.3 ppg and that drops to 14.9 ppg on the road.
Detroit's not as bad defensively as you would expect for a team that is just 2-12, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 or fewer.
Both defenses are going to get some help from Mother Nature in this game, as it's going to be miserable conditions to play offense in Seattle on Sunday. Not only is their 92% of precipitation, there's going to be close to 20 mph winds during this game. Both teams are going to be forced into running it a lot more than they would like, which will lead to fewer possessions and this game staying well below the number. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|01-02-22||Rams v. Ravens UNDER 46.5||20-19||Win||100||26 h 46 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total DESTROYER (Under 46.5)
I like the value we are getting with the UNDER at 46.5 in Sunday's non-conference matchup between the Rams and Ravens. Not to concerned with who starts at quarterback for Baltimore, I just think the conditions here are going to help keep this under the mark.
While it's expected to be a modest 62 degrees in Baltimore for this game, there's a 50% of rain and most importantly it will be windy, with close to 20 mph blowing across the field throughout the game. That's going to make throwing the ball a lot harder, which really helps out the Ravens defense against this Rams offense.
Baltimore's biggest problem defensively has been the inability of the secondary to cover. There just isn't going to be the same opportunities for the Rams offense in the passing game with that wind. Same goes for Baltimore, who would likely have a hard time moving the ball on this Rams defense in perfect conditions. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|12-30-21||Pittsburgh v. Michigan State OVER 55.5||21-31||Loss||-110||26 h 28 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Peach Bowl Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)
I think with the news that Kenny Pickett won't play for Pitt and Kenneth Walker will sit out for Michigan State, has created some value with the OVER at just 55.5. I still think there is going to be a lot of offense and wouldn't be shocked at all if they went over the original total of 63.
I think people just assume a team is going to implode when they lose a talent like Pickett at quarterback, but I got a lot of faith in backup Nick Patti to step in and have a big game. Patti has performed well when he's got a chance. The even bigger thing is the defense he will be up against. Michigan State's secondary is atrocious. They gave up 338 yards/game thru the air this year.
Walker was a big part of the Spartans offense, but less running is good thing when you are taking an OVER and with star wideout Jalen Nailor expected back from a hand injury, I think Michigan State is going to be able to move the football and put up their fair share of points. Give me the OVER 55.5!
|12-29-21||Seton Hall v. Providence UNDER 139.5||65-70||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 139.5)
I think the books have completely missed the mark with the total for Wednesday's Big East clash between Providence and Seton Hall. Neither of these teams shoot the 3-ball all that well and both are pretty stout defensively.
Providence is also a team that wants to play slow. They rank 219th in adjusted tempo. They should be able to dictate the tempo at home. At the same time, Seton Hall's defense is really good. Their opponents average possession length is 18.1, which is 309th longest in the country.
The other big thing is the spot. Seton Hall hasn't played since Dec. 12 and Providence has been off since Dec. 18th. You got think both of these offenses will be a little rusty. Give me the UNDER 139.5!
|12-28-21||Louisville v. Air Force OVER 54.5||Top||28-31||Win||100||5 h 27 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Non-Playoffs BOWL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 54.5)
I think the books have completely missed the mark with this total. I get that Air Force only gave up 19.1 ppg and 289 ypg on the season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule. The Falcons didn't play a single Power 5 opponent in non-conference play.
The two best offenses they faced in MWC play were arguably Utah State and Nevada. They lost 45-49 to the Aggies and won 41-39 over the Wolfpack.
Louisville is without a couple wideouts, but they got a top tier talent at quarterback in Malik Jackson and he's more than enough weapons to work with.
Not only do I think the Cardinals will score a bunch, but I don't think the Louisville defense will be able to slow down Air Force's triple-option. They weren't a good run defense and have not seen an offense like this in a long time. Give me the OVER 54.5!
|12-25-21||Warriors v. Suns UNDER 228.5||116-107||Win||100||53 h 29 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Christmas Day Total DESTROYER (Under 228.5)
I was shocked to see the total for the Suns/Warriors game on Christmas Day pushing 230. These two teams have already played twice this year and neither one was all that high scoring. The Suns won 104-96 at home in the first meeting and Golden State responded with a 118-96 win in the rematch.
Not only will the familiarity help keep the scoring down, but we almost always get these huge defensive efforts in these Christmas games, which leads to a lot of UNDERs cashing at the ticket window. I just don't see this game getting into the 220s. Give me the UNDER 228.5!
|12-22-21||Missouri v. Army OVER 53||Top||22-24||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Mizzu/Army MAX UNIT Top Play (Over 53)
I think we have had a bit of perfect storm that has created a golden opportunity to play the OVER. Army is coming off that defensive battle against Navy and I just think the perception here is that with a team like the Black Knights that want to run, run and run some more, there's not going to be as much scoring.
That can be the case if they are playing a team that can stop the run, but that's not the case here. Missouri has one of the worst run defenses in the country. They finished the year giving up 229 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry vs the run. We saw Army rush for 416 yards and score 56 points against Wake Forest, so it's not like they can't score a bunch with that offense.
The other big thing here is Missouri's top running back Tyler Badie (led SEC in rushing) won't play and they are going to give freshman Brady Cook his first start. Not having Badie is a big deal, but I do think the Tigers got some decent backs who can step in and have success, as the Mizzu o-line should have an edge against the Army defensive front.
As for Cook, he's played sparingly and impressed. He played in their blowout loss against Georgia and completed 14 of 19 attempts. You got to think they are going to let him sling it in this game and he's going to have to with how much the defense figures to struggle. Give me the OVER 53!
|12-21-21||Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 42||17-27||Loss||-113||9 h 1 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 42)
I'm going to take the UNDE 42 in Tuesday's NFC East matchup between the Eagles and Football Team. I just don't see either team doing a whole lot offensively in this game.
While we are still waiting to see who is going to play for Washington, we know they are going to have most of their defensive line in tact and this is a unit that has been outstanding against the run. Philly also loves to run the ball and I don't think they are going to feel the need to force the pass game with how much the Football Team is going to struggle offensively.
Washington's top two QBs, Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen didn't travel with the team. Both do have until 4 pm to get cleared to play, but it seems a bit unlikely. Football Team is also going to be missing two starting offensive linemen, backup running back J.D. McKissic and wideout Curtis Samuel. You also got to factor in the lack of practice time this team has had, even with the game getting moved back. Give me the UNDER 42!
|12-21-21||Davidson v. Alabama OVER 148||79-78||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (OVER 148)
I see Alabama and Davidson having no problem going OVER the total of 148. The Wildcats haven't seen an offense anywhere close to what they will be up against tonight in Alabama. The Crimson Tide rank 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and are 10th in average possession length.
The best team Davidson has played so far in terms of offensive efficiency is San Francisco, who is 73rd, but the Dons are just 205th in possession length. ECU is the fastest team they have played in possession length and they rank 98th.
On the flip side, Alabama has faced 4 teams this season that rank in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency and all 4 of those teams scored at least 78 points. Davidson ranks 29th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are also 4th in 3-PT% at 41.6%. Crimson Tide faced a very similar team in South Dakota State, who ranked 19th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in 3-PT% and that game was won 104-88 by Alabama. Give me the OVER 148!
|12-20-21||Tulsa v. Old Dominion UNDER 54||30-17||Win||100||4 h 54 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Myrtle Beach Bowl NO-BRAINER (Under 54)
I like the UNDER in the Myrtle Beach Bowl between Tulsa and Old Dominion. I just don't see a shootout in this game. These are two teams that offensively want to run the football and both will be up against a couple of solid run defenses. Tulsa only gives up 3.9 yards/carry, which is really impressive given they have played Cincinnati, Ohio State and Oklahoma State. ODU only gives up 3.5 yards/carry, which is almost a 0.5 yard under what their opponents average.
All this running is going to lead to some long empty possessions that either lead to no points or a field goal, which is exactly what we want. Give me the UNDER 54!
|12-18-21||Magic v. Nets UNDER 211.5||100-93||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 211.5)
This game will look like an exhibition game with all the guys that won't play for both teams. The biggest story here being what the Nets will have to work with. Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Bembry, Bruce Brown, Paul Milsap, Joe Harris and James Johnson are all out. Kyrie also won't play with it being a home game and Nicolas Claxton is questionable.
It's not much better for the Magic, who have 11 guys ruled out and Cole Anthony questionable. I just think there's not going to be enough offensive talent on the floor for this game to get into the 200's and we got a total north of 210. Give me the UNDER 211.5!
|12-18-21||Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 208||100-119||Loss||-110||10 h 9 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 208)
I really like the UNDER in tonight's game between the Raptors and Warriors. Golden State will be without Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole and Andre Iguodala. Not having Curry on the floor alone is huge for the UNDER.
Key here is that this Warriors team has shown they will come out to win regardless of who is on the floor and this feels like a game where some of those young guys show out. It's not all good for the Raptors either, as they got a number of guys on the injury report. Give me the UNDER 208!
|12-16-21||Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 51.5||Top||34-28||Loss||-109||58 h 0 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Chargers MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 51.5)
I love the UNDER on Thursday Night Football this week. Even after all the struggles we have seen from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense this year, the public still sees this team as a this offensive juggernaut. Largely because of what we saw from this offense the last two years.
I know they just put up 48 points in a blowout win over the Raiders this past Sunday, but a lot of that was A) Las Vegas turned the ball over 5 times, B) the Raiders refusal to play the cover-2 shell that has given Mahomes so much trouble. KC only had 372 total yards. Mahomes completed 20 of 24 but for just 258.
This Chiefs offense is so much more methodical. There's not near as many explosive plays and quick scoring drives. At least, against every other team not named the Raiders. The Chargers aren't stupid. They will play the cover-2 shell and make Mahomes dink and dunk and force Andy to run it more than he wants.
The other big thing with KC and the UNDER is the play of their defense. You can say what you want about who the schedule has dealt them of late, but you can't be a bad defense and go 3 straight games in today's NFL and give up fewer than 10 points. It's night and day from what this defense looked like to start the year.
Chris Jones will be out, which is a huge part of that defense. However, I think it's even bigger that the Chargers are down starting tackle and by far their best linemen in Rashawn Slater. Frank Clark has been wreaking havoc off the edge and Melvin Ingram is a force on the other side. I think that pressure combined with one of the most underrated secondaries in the NFL will make it really hard on Herbert and that Chargers offense to do a whole lot. Give me the UNDER 51.5!
|12-15-21||Wizards v. Kings OVER 225||Top||105-119||Loss||-110||12 h 54 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225)
I love the OVER 225 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Wizards. These are two teams that are really struggling to get stops right now and I don't see that changing tonight.
Washington has allowed 113 or more in each of their last 4 games and teams are shooting 48.6% from the field against them over their last 5.
It's not any better for Sacramento, who has allowed 117 or more in 4 straight and 115 or more in 9 of their last 10. They have allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 and 47 or better in 9 of their last 10. Give me the OVER 225!
|12-12-21||Bills v. Bucs OVER 53||27-33||Win||100||73 h 14 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 53)
We took a brutal beat on the OVER last week in the Bucs/Falcons game, but that's not going to keep me from playing the OVER in another Tampa Bay game this week. In fact, I like this one even more with the Bills coming to town.
I just think with the way Tom Brady and this Bucs offense is clicking right now and the injuries that Tampa Bay has on the defensive side of the ball, mainly the secondary, they are going to find themselves in some high scoring games.
I certainly don't think a Bills defense that just recently lost their star corner, Tre'Davious White, is going to be able to slow down this Bucs passing game. On top of that, I think Buffalo's defense is way overrated, as their numbers have been drastically inflated given all the bad offenses they have faced.
Key here is I like Josh Allen and this Bills offense to be able to go score for score with the Bucs. Buffalo is built around the passing game and whether it's been Mother Nature or just some top tier secondaries, they haven't been able to showcase it of late. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams eclipsed 30 in this one. Give me the OVER 53!
|12-05-21||Bucs v. Falcons OVER 50||30-17||Loss||-109||95 h 0 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - OVER/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 50)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in Sunday's NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Bucs. I don't love to play OVERs in division games, but these two have a history of putting points on the board. They combined for 73 in Tampa's 48-25 win in Week 2 and have combined for at least 50 in each of the last 7 meetings.
I think the reason we are getting some value with the OVER is what we have seen out of this Atlanta offense the past few weeks. They scored just 3 points in an ugly loss against Dallas, were shutout at home by the Patriots and scored just 21 last week against the Jags.
I'm not saying they are going to breakout of their slump and put up 30+ in this game, but I do think it's a good matchup for the Falcons offense. This Tampa Bay defense is great against the run, but not so great against the pass. Matt Ryan and that Atlanta offense know how to exploit this Bucs defense and I'm confident they can put up 20+ points.
Note that prior to playing Carson Wentz and the Colts last week, who they allowed to rack up nearly 400 yards and score 31 points despite having 4 turnovers, they had played a string of games against bad QBs. Their previous 6 games saw them go up against the likes of Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Trevor Siemian, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Jacoby Brissett.
I just think it's a good time to sell high on this Tampa Bay defense, as well as buy low on the Bucs offense. While Tampa Bay still might not have Antonio Brown back, they did just get back tight end Rob Gronkowski and he had a huge game with 7 catches for 123 yards on a team-high 10 targets.
You also got to look at the caliber of defense the Bucs will be up against. The Falcons have shown no ability to slow down a good offense and I believe that's a direct result of them not being able to get pressure. Atlanta's 15 sacks are the fewest in the league. If you can't get to Brady and make him uncomfortable, it's game over. I got the Bucs easily getting into the 30s in this game and could see them topping 40. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-03-21||Iowa v. Purdue OVER 158.5||70-77||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 158.5)
This might be a little bit of a square play taking a public OVER with a high total, but I just don't think 158.5 is anywhere close to enough for this matchup. Everyone knows that Purdue is good. They were expected to be coming in and they are not only scoring 92.4 ppg, they are ranked No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency.
Iowa wasn't suppose to be this good. Not after losing two guys to the NBA, including the player of the year in Garza. They are and it's because they got another NBA caliber guy shouldering the load in sophomore Keegan Murray, who is averaging 24.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg and 2.3 bpg.
The Hawkeyes offense is averaging 94.0 ppg and are No.3 in the country in offensive efficiency. I did have some concern whether the offense was just beating up on bad teams, but to go on the road and put up 75 points on 54% shooting against a defensive minded Virginia team (Cavs hadn't given up 70 in a game prior to that) tells me their offense is the real deal.
The other big thing is Iowa's defense let a bad Virginia offense score 74 and shoot 53%. That's concerning given that was the first offense they had faced this year that ranked inside the Top 220 in offensive efficiency (Virginia is No. 78). Purdue is going to score at will. Give me the OVER 158.5!
|12-03-21||Oregon v. Utah UNDER 58.5||Top||10-38||Win||100||44 h 47 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - PAC-12 Oregon/Utah TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 58.5)
I love the UNDER 58.5 in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game between Utah and Oregon. These two teams just played a couple weeks ago in Utah. The Utes embarrassed the Ducks 38-7, ending all hope for Oregon to make the College Football Playoff.
As good as Utah looked in that win, you can't underestimate how much of an advantage they had playing that game at home. I think we are going to see a much better effort defensively from Oregon in the rematch, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
I also think that these are two teams that want to establish the run. Utah ran it 50 times in the win over the Ducks a couple weeks ago and Oregon's a team that averages close to 40 rush attempts per game on the season.
I just think it's going to be a defensive battle with both teams struggling to not only sustain drives, but finish them off in the red zone with touchdowns. Give me the UNDER 58.5!
|12-02-21||Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5||Top||27-17||Loss||-100||11 h 36 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Cowboys/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 47.5)
I'm not going to lie, I was hoping for a little better injury news for the Saints, especially on the offensive line at the two tackle positions. Either way, I still think this game will go over the total.
The biggest thing you got to remember with the Saints offense is that they are going up against an overrated Cowboys defense. Yes, Dallas forces a lot of turnovers, but they also rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. I also think having Taysom Hill gives that offense some life and his mobility will be crucial with that Cowboys pass rush up against a depleted Saints o-line.
I also think there's a chance we don't need New Orleans to do a lot. I really think this Cowboys offense could put up 40+. I don't think this Saints defense is anywhere close to as good as what they get credit for. Their secondary is awful and they are up against one of, if not the, best passing attacks in the league. I also think this Cowboys offense is dying to make a statement after the poor showings and injuries they have had to encounter the last few weeks. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|11-28-21||Kings v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5||101-128||Loss||-110||9 h 47 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5)
I really like the value we are getting with the UNDER 225.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Kings and Grizzlies. On the season these aren't exactly UNDER teams, as both of these teams have been putting up a lot of points and giving up a lot at the same time.
I just think that Memphis' offense is going to take a hit without Ja Morant on the floor. Not only he is he their best player, he's their point guard. He makes everything so much easier for everyone else.
As for the Kings, I got a hard time seeing them wanting to turn this into a track meet after Friday's 3OT thriller that saw them beat the Lakers 141-137. Note that final score makes it look like it was track meet, but that was far from the case as the two teams ended regulation tied 100-100. Kings' point guard De'Aaron Fox played 53 out of 63 minutes in that game. Haliburton played 47 and Hield played 40.
I just think this total is priced as if both teams were healthy and in good situational spots. Give me the UNDER 225.5!
|11-26-21||Iowa State v. Memphis UNDER 140||78-59||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 140)
Based on the spread, the books are projecting a score here with a total of 140 in the lines of something like Memphis 76-64 and I just don't see it. I think as good as the Cyclones looked in their upset win over Xavier, they are going to have a miserable time trying to score against this Memphis defense.
The Tigers are No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency right now. They are No. 4 in 2pt% defense and No. 3 in block%. Iowa State simply doesn't have the shooting to get a lot of easy looks in this one. The key here is I think the Cyclones can hold their own defensively and make it tough on Memphis to get to 70 points. Give me the UNDER 140!
|11-25-21||Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5||31-6||Win||100||26 h 30 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Bills/Saints Prime Time MONEYMAKER (UNDER 45.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 45.5 in Thanksgiving night cap between the Bills and Saints. I just don't see a lot of offense for either team in this game.
Josh Allen and the Bills are just not clicking offensively right now. Outside of that big game against the Jets, who is atrocious defensively, they haven't been playing up to their potential for weeks. Most point to the game against the Jags as the start, but they weren't great in their win against the Dolphins the week before and last week couldn't do anything against a pretty suspect Colts secondary.
Now they go on the road against a good Saints defense that is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting run all over by the Eagles last week. I just don't see a repeat of that for New Orleans and it's pretty simple. Buffalo can't run the ball.
On the flip side, things aren't looking much better for the Saints offense. Trevor Siemian is not the answer at quarterback and he's being asked to do too much with Alvin Kamara sidelined. Add in an offensive line that figures to be down 3 starters and it's hard to see them doing much against a similarly pissed off Bills defense. Give me the UNDER 45.5!
|11-25-21||Bears v. Lions OVER 41||16-14||Loss||-115||18 h 31 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Bears/Lions Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 41)
I know there's not a lot to get excited about with this game and I think given the quarterback situation for these two teams, as well as their recent performances, most will have a hard time seeing a lot of offense in this game.
I'm not saying it's going to be a shootout by any means, but I do think at 41 the total here is too low, especially with both teams playing on no rest. Not to mention I think we are buying at the all-time low with both of these offenses right now.
Chicago will have to go with Andy Dalton over Justin Fields. I get it. Dalton isn't sexy and doesn't offer much on the ground, but he gives that offense a better chance of succeeding right now. Teams just don't have to respect Fields throwing the ball. Even if it's just 3-yard dump offs, it makes the Lions play a little more honest.
The other big key here is that I think we are going to see Jared Goff under center for the Lions. While he's nothing to get excited about, he's better than Boyle and he threw for 299 yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting with Chicago. I also think there's a chance here we could see a lackluster showing from the Bears defense, as it really feels like this team has given up on Naggy and this season. Give me the OVER 41!
|11-24-21||Connecticut v. Auburn UNDER 143||115-109||Loss||-104||6 h 36 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 143)
I think we are getting some big time value with the UNDER at 143 in Wednesday's early matchup between No. 22 UConn and No. 19 Auburn in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. I think we are seeing an inflated total due to the big numbers that these two teams have put up early against some much weaker defenses.
UConn is one of the highest scoring teams in the country right now, as they are averaging 92.0 ppg on 50.2% shooting. That's going to happen when you are as talented as the Huskies against the schedule they have faced. UConn's highest ranked team they have played in KenPom's rankings is LIU at No. 275. The other 3 teams all ranked outside the Top 315. All of those teams rank outside the Top 200 in defensive efficiency.
Now they face an Auburn team that is 34th in the country in defensive efficiency and 31st in effective field goal defense. Tigers also rank 7th in the country in block%.
Auburn is averaging 76.0 ppg, but we saw how their offense looked against a good defense in their last game, as they managed just 58 points against a USF team that ranks 91st in defensive efficiency and 32nd in effective FG%. UConn is a big step up for them as well, as they are 19th in defensive efficiency and 5th in EFG%. Give me the UNDER 143!
|11-21-21||Arizona v. Michigan UNDER 145||80-62||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
40* (CBB) Late Night Total KNOCKOUT (UNDER 145)
I think we are getting some great value with the UNDER at 145. These are two of the best defensive teams in the country according to KenPom. Arizona ranks 19th in defensive efficiency and are No.1 in the country in defending the 2-point shot. There will be no easy baskets for the Wolverines in this one and they aren't exactly a great 3-point shooting team. Michigan is shooting just 32.1% from deep and only average 6 made 3-pointers a game.
We saw a good Seton Hall defense that ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 25 in 2-point defense hold the Wolverines to just 65 points on 41.9% shooting in their big upset loss earlier this week.
Arizona comes in averaging an impressive 91.0 ppg on 48% shooting, but a lot of that is because they played 3 cup cakes to start the year. They only had 69 points at the end of regulation against Wichita State and shot just 40.7% from the field and were 5 for 27 (18.5%) from deep. Give me the UNDER 145!
|11-21-21||Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||26 h 57 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 47.5)
I love the UNDER 47.5 in Sunday's big NFC North showdown between the Packers and Vikings. I know Green Bay has an all-time great at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers, but their offense has been far from elite in 2021. The Packers are 19th in scoring at just 21.6 ppg and 20th in total offense at just 339.4 yards/game. Let's also not forget they are down their top back in Aaron Jones, have lost their top tight end in Robert Tonyan, could be without wideout Allen Lazard and have some injuries up front on the offensive line.
The thing with Green Bay is they haven't needed their offense to be great to win games because their defense has been so good. They are making good quarterbacks look average at best. Just look at what they have done in their last 3 games against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. It will be no different here against Kirk Cousins and what I think is a very overrated Vikings offense. '
Green bay hasn't had a game see more than 47 points since the calendar turned to October (7 straight games). Give me the UNDER 47.5!
|11-20-21||Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech OVER 56||23-0||Loss||-110||52 h 27 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total SHOCKER (Over 56)
I think we are getting some great value with the OVER 56 in Saturday night's big Big 12 matchup between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. I think a lot of people are hesitant to play the OVER with a team like the Cowboys who are so good defensively and not exactly an offensive juggernaut.
The key here is that his Red Raiders defense is one they can exploit, much like they did last week in their 63-point outburst against a bad TCU defense. Texas Tech has already given up 50+ points in 3 Big 12 games, including 70 to Texas earlier in the year. They let an Oklahoma offense that looked lost against Baylor score 52 and they gave up 52 to TCU with the Horned Frogs throwing for just 104 yards on 10 pass attempts.
I not only think the Cowboys are going to score, but I also think Texas Tech is good enough offensively that they at least get into the 20s and maybe even the 30s. In the last 8 meetings, which goes all the way back to 2013, Oklahoma State has not held the Red Raiders to fewer than 34 points and in 7 of those 8 meetings the two teams combined for at least 75 points. Give me the OVER 56!
|11-20-21||SMU v. Cincinnati UNDER 65.5||14-48||Win||100||48 h 58 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 65.5)
I have to take a shot on the UNDER 65.5 in Saturday's big AAC showdown between SMU and Cincinnati.
I know the Mustangs are statistically one of the best offenses in the country, as they come in averaging 41.6 ppg, 499 ypg and 6.7 yards/play, but a lot of that is who they have played. I don't see a defense on their schedule that they have played that is even remotely as good as what they will see in this game against Cincinnati. Keep in mind last year SMU averaged 38.6 ppg and only managed to score 13 against the Bearcats in a blowout loss at home.
I also know Cincinnati hasn't exactly looked dominant defensively in their last few games, but this is still a team that has not given up 30 in any game this year and only twice given up more than 21. It also feels like to me that the Bearcats are one of those teams that play their best against the better teams. We saw that in their game at Notre Dame, where they held the Irish to just 13 points.
So even if Cincinnati's offense puts up 40+ points, which I don't think they will, there's still a great chance this game will stay under the total. I think the number here should be closer to 58. Give me the UNDER 65.5!
|11-17-21||Northern Illinois v. Buffalo OVER 60||33-27||Push||0||19 h 12 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Wednesday Night MAC SLAUGHTER (OVER 60)
This total opened at 65.5 and has been bet down to a mere 60. The reason for that is the forecast doesn't look great. There's expected to be 15-20 mph and a 34% chance of rain. I just think it's created some great value on the OVER.
I just think it's been a bit overblown. There's a 66% chance it doesn't rain and with how bad these two teams are defensively, especially against the run, I don't think the wind will play as big a role as some might think.
Northern Illinois comes in averaging 220 rushing yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry. They will be up against a Buffalo defense that gives up 197 ypg and 4.8 ypc. The Bulls are averaging 194 ypg and 4.3 ypc on the ground and will be facing a Huskies defense that is giving up 209 ypg and 5.9 ypc. As a whole both teams are giving up over 30 ppg and 450 ypg in conference play. Give me the OVER 60!
|11-16-21||Warriors v. Nets OVER 221.5||Top||117-99||Loss||-110||10 h 58 m||Show|
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 221.5)
I love the OVER 221.5 in tonight's big NBA game between the Nets and Warriors. I know the UNDERS have been cashing left and right to start the 2021-22 season, but I actually think it's playing into our favor with this number.
These are two exceptional offensive teams. The Nets had their struggles early on offense, but that has changed here of late and a big reason for that is James Harden is finally starting to play up to his potential. As for the Warriors, they have been a force offensively, averaging 115.1 ppg. I think both teams could get into the 120's, but we really just need something like a 115-110 final to cash this easy. Give me the OVER 221.5!
|11-16-21||Toledo v. Ohio OVER 54||35-23||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER 54 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Ohio and Toledo. Both of these teams can put up points. Toledo is scoring 32.8 ppg in MAC play and Ohio is scoring 30.5 ppg. I just don't see either defense making enough stops here to keep this under 60 points.
The UNDER has cashed quite a bit for both teams, but if you look closely, the games have just barely went under the number. You also got to look at how high scoring these MAC games have been in these early weekday matchups. This one will be no different. Give me the oVER 54!
|11-15-21||Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5||Top||10-31||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Rams/49ers MAX UNIT MNF Top Play (Under 50.5)
I want nothing to do with the spread in this game. Rams look like the obvious choice at -3.5, but the obvious play in a prime time game never seems to go like you expect. I would much rather have a bet on the UNDER 50.5 for this division matchup.
I just don't think this 49ers offense is very good. They have scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 and are up against a stingy Rams defense that has been really good against the run of laste. In LA's last 5 games they are giving up just 80.4 ypg on the ground. For San Francisco's offense to play well, they need to be able to run the ball to get to their play action in the passing game.
On the flip side, I do think the 49ers have a solid defense. I know they have given up some points in a couple games here of late, but they allow the same 5.5 yards/play that the Rams do and you could argue that SF has played the harder schedule. I also think the loss of Robert Woods is huge, as it figures to take some time for Odell Beckham Jr to learn the Rams offense. The 49ers also have a great understanding of what McVay and that offense wants to do.
UNDER is 21-7 in the Rams last 28 as a favorite and 11-4 in their last 15 off an ATS loss. UNDER is also 4-1 in the 49ers last 5 as an underdog. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|11-14-21||Bills v. Jets OVER 47||45-17||Win||100||69 h 29 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 47)
I think we are getting a great price here on the OVER at 47 in Sunday's game between AFC East rivals Buffalo and New York. I really love this spot for the Bills' offense, as they are going to be a pissed off bunch after scoring just 6-points in last week's shocking 6-9 loss at Jacksonville.
They couldn't have asked for a better team to get back on track against than this Jets team. New York is dead last in the NFL in both scoring defense (31.4 ppg) and total defense (408.1 ypg). In their last 3 games they have given up 54 to the Patriots, 31 to the Bengals and 45 to the Colts. All 3 of those games combining for at least 65 points.
I feel pretty good about Buffalo scoring at least 35 in this game and wouldn't be shocked if they got into the 40s.
On the flip side of this, I love the fact that the Jets are going to go with Mike White at quarterback instead of going back to rookie Zach Wilson. White was sensational in the Jets upset win over the Bengals and looked really good to start out that game against the Colts before he got hurt and had to leave the game. I know the Bills have the top ranked secondary, but I still think we could see the Jets easily get into the 20s and that should be more than enough to push this past the number. Give me the OVER 47!
|11-10-21||Hornets v. Grizzlies OVER 227||118-108||Loss||-109||10 h 11 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 227)
I just can't help myself but to take the OVER 227 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Grizzlies and Hornets. While these two teams don't exactly fly up and down the court, we have two of the top offenses facing off against two of the worst defenses.
Charlotte is 8th in offensive efficiency and Memphis isn't too far back at 12th. On the flip side, the Hornets are 29th (just barely ahead of the Pelicans) in defensive efficiency and Memphis is 28th.
I just think with how bad these two teams are defensively it's going to lead to a little faster pace, as both offenses won't have to work hard to get an open look. As long as don't have one of these teams go ice cold, this should easily get into the 230s. Give me the OVER 227!
|11-10-21||Toledo v. Bowling Green OVER 49.5||49-17||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 49.5)
The OVERs have been cashing left and right in these early weekday MAC games. We cashed one last night with Buffalo/Miami (OH) over 57. I'll roll the dice with another OVER Wednesday, as I just think 49.5 is way too low for the game between Bowling Green and Toledo.
It's not out of the question that Toledo could put up on 50 on their own. They almost did last week against Eastern Michigan, as they hung 49 points and racked up nearly 700 yards of offense. That offense will be up against a Bowling Green defense that is giving up 39.0 ppg in MAC play. In their last 3 games the Falcons have allowed 34 to Northern Illinois, 55 to E Mich and 44 to Buffalo.
Little more concern with Bowling Green's offense, but they should benefit from playing at home, they have scored at least 20 in every MAC game this year and I'm also not convinced the Rockets are all that motivated with no real shot of winning the MAC West and making the title game. Give me the OVER 49.5!
|11-09-21||Buffalo v. Miami-OH OVER 57||18-45||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MAC Total NO-BRAINER (Over 57)
I will take my chances with the OVER 57 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Buffalo and Miami (OH). This game has shootout written all over it.
Buffalo has seen an average of 67 points scored in their 5 conference games this season, as they are scoring 34.2 ppg and giving up 32.8 ppg.
That soft Bulls defense is the key in this one, as the RedHawks are not the most explosive offense. With that said, Miami is averaging over 30 ppg in their last 3 and had over 500 yards of offense in last week's 33-35 loss at Ohio.
I also think that while the RedHawks defense is only giving up 25.8 ppg and 20.6 ppg in conference play, a lot of that is who they have played. I just don't think they are going to be able to slow down this balanced Buffalo attack that comes in averaging over 200 yards/game on both the ground and thru the air. Give me the OVER 57!
|11-02-21||Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5||52-49||Loss||-109||10 h 12 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MACTION MONEYMAKER (Under 53.5)
I love the value we are getting with the UNDER 53.5 in Tuesday's Maction between Eastern Michigan and Toledo.
I think the defenses for both teams will have the edge in this game. The Eagles high-powered offense that is averaging 32.8 ppg, is a bit fluky. They only average 373 ypg, 5.6 yards/play and have played a pretty soft schedule in terms of defenses they have played. Toledo is giving up 18.3 ppg, 326 ypg and 4.7 yards/play and that's vs teams that on average score 24.6 ppg, while giving up 375 ypg and 5.3 yards/play.
As for the Rockets' offense, they are scoring 28.5 ppg, but are really weak up front on the offensive line and are facing a decent defense here in Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are only giving up 24.9 ppg and 393 ypg. Give me the UNDER 53.5!
|11-01-21||Giants v. Chiefs OVER 52||Top||17-20||Loss||-108||10 h 38 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Giants/Chiefs MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52)
|11-01-21||Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 221.5||113-110||Loss||-110||8 h 8 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 221.5)
I really like the UNDER 221.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Hornets and Cavs. I have a really hard time seeing these two teams score into the 220's.
The Cavs are an ideal UNDER team. They are awful offensively, don't like to play with much tempo (T-24th in pace) and are a top half of the league defensive team. UNDER has cashed in each of the Cavs' last 5 games.
The reason the total is high, is the Hornets are an OVER team. They score 118.6 ppg and give up 115.3 ppg.
Aside from Cleveland doing whatever they can to slow the pace down, I think we could see Charlotte play a little slower than what we would normally see. Hornets are going to be on no rest after hosting the Blazers yesterday and this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 221.5!
|10-31-21||Bucs v. Saints UNDER 50.5||Top||27-36||Loss||-110||71 h 14 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5)
I love the UNDER 50.5 in Sunday's big NFC South matchup between the Bucs and Saints. I just have a hard time seeing this being a shootout. In fact, I think it's going to be a struggle for both teams offensively.
Tom Brady has been great, but almost all of their high point totals have come against bad defenses. They had 48 against the Falcons, 45 against the Dolphins and 38 vs the Bears. While Chicago's defense is horrible, that was just all turnovers by the Bears offense. Only 1 of TB's 6 scoring drives were more than 50 yards with 4 of the 5 needing 40 or less yards to reach the endzone.
I think with Antonio Brown still out and Gronk likely either sidelined or playing at less than 100%, it's going to be hard for Brady and that offense to sustain drives against this Saints defense.
On the flip side of this, it's no secret that Sean Payton has zero desires of letting Jameis Winston throw it 40+ times per game. That's not going to change just because the Bucs are banged up in the secondary. Their whole game plan is going to be to ride Kamara and do what they can to eat up clock and limit the possessions for Brady and that Bucs offense.
Unless we get an uncharacteristic amount of turnovers or the Saints defense somehow gets exposed, this thing is going to finish in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|10-30-21||Texas Tech v. Oklahoma OVER 66.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||64 h 39 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 66.5)
I love the OVER 66.5 in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between Oklahoma and Texas Tech. I'm shocked the number here isn't in the 70's. I think some of that has to do with Oklahoma's lackluster performance this past Saturday against Kansas, but I'm not one that's going to read a lot into the Sooners not playing their best against the worst team in the conference.
If anything I think that's a positive here, as it's going to make Oklahoma that much more motivated to get off to a strong start offensively in this game. I also think you got to look at what Oklahoma has done as a whole since Caleb Williams has replaced Spencer Rattler at quarterback.
He was 100% the reason they were able to rally from that huge deficit in their 55-48 win over Texas and the very week he guided this team to 52 points in a win over TCU that saw 83 combined points.
It wouldn't surprise me at all, if Oklahoma put up 50+ in this game. We have already seen Texas Tech give up that number twice, as Texas scored 70 on them and TCU had 52.
Even if Oklahoma were to only get to 40, we would only need 27 from Tech to get the OVER and the Red Raiders are scoring 34.3 ppg and the fewest they have scored in any game all season is 23. This is also not a very good Sooners defense and the fact that KU was able to put up 23 points with over 400 yards of offense is probably the biggest takeaway you should take from that game. Give me the OVER 66.5!
|10-30-21||Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 50.5||Top||33-37||Loss||-105||60 h 24 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Ten TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5)
I was shocked when I saw this total in the 50s, but I guess I'm not shocked when you look at the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. Michigan State is scoring 34.3 ppg, 452 yards/game and 7.0 yards/play, while Michigan comes in at 37.7 ppg, 443 ypg and 6.3 yards/play.
We can start to uncover the value when we look at just conference games. If you only focus on Big Ten opponents, Michigan State is scoring just 28.0 ppg, 398.5 ypg and 6.6 yards/play, which Michigan goes down to 30.8 ppg, 389.0 ypg and 5.3 yards/play.
The other big thing here is the schedule. Both Michigan and Michigan State have played very favorable schedules to this point. The Wolverines are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. They did score 38 against the Badgers, but only had 365 yards and it was a 20-10 game going into the 4th quarter. The Spartans are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers and Indiana and they only managed to score 23 vs the Cornhuskers and 20 last time out vs the Hoosiers.
These are also two offensive teams that want to run the football and are going up against two defenses that have been really good at stopping the run. Michigan is only giving up 3.6 yards/carry and Michigan State is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry.
I just think in a game of this magnitude, both teams are going to be a little more conservative out of the gate and all the running for 3-4 yards is going to eat up the clock and keep this thing in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|10-29-21||Pacers v. Nets UNDER 223.5||98-105||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 223.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 223.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Pacers visiting the Nets. It's hard to not like the Pacers a a big dog given what we have seen out of this Brooklyn team so far, but I just can't get there with Indiana with the injury to Malcolm Brogdon.
The Pacers have already been without two starters to start the season in T.J. Warren and Caris LaVert, which I think makes losing Brogdon, by far one of their best players, that much bigger of a blow. Brogdon leads the team in scoring (23.4 ppg) and assists (7.0 apg) and is second in rebound (7.0 rpg). I just wonder if the Pacers will be able to get into any kind of rhythm offensively without him at the point.
As for the Nets, they are playing no where close to what we thought we would see offensively. Some of that is not having Kyrie Irving, but it's also a lackluster group of role players and James Harden shooting bricks. Harden is averaging just 16.6 ppg on 35.9% shooting. No surprise the UNDER is 5-0 in their 5 games. Give me the UNDER 223.5!
|10-28-21||Packers v. Cardinals OVER 49.5||24-21||Loss||-110||10 h 7 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Packers/Cardinals TNF NO-BRAINER (Over 49.5)
I like the OVER 49.5 in Thursday's big NFC showdown between the Packers and Cardinals. This game lost a lot of its luster when the news broke that Green Bay was going to be without top wideout Davante Adams and one of their other top receivers in Allen Lazard.
It definitely makes life a little harder on Green Bay's offense to not have Adams, but I don't think it's going to result in the Packers not being able to move the ball. Last I checked they still have Aaron Rodgers and I got a pretty good feeling he's going to find a way to move the chains.
You also got to factor in that Green Bay should be able to establish the run in this game. The Cardinals run defense has not been very good this year. They are giving up 5.0 yards/carry. Even without Adams and Lazard, you can bet the Cardinals are going to be respecting the pass, which I think is going to allow GB to get the run game establish and allow Rodgers to make plays in play action.
On the flip side this, I got zero faith that this Packers defense can slow down this Arizona offense. Last week's 24-10 win over Washington might have been the flukiest win of the season for a team. The Packers somehow managed to hold the Football team to 10 points with Washington racking up 430 total yards and getting the ball inside the Packers 30-yard line 5 times and not punting once the entire game. Give me the OVER 49.5!
|10-27-21||Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 234||96-116||Loss||-109||12 h 1 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Over 234)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 234 in tonight's NBA game between the Blazers and Grizzlies. Portland had combined for at least 239 points in each of their first two games before laying a dud in a 86-116 loss at the Clippers on Monday. Memphis has scored at least 118 in all 3 of their games, with all 3 games going over and seeing a combined score of 134 or more.
Portland leads the NBA in pace of play at 108.1 and Memphis ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Hard to see the Blazers not getting to 120 points in this one. Throw in how well the Grizzlies are playing offensively and this thing could easily get into the 250s.
OVER is 24-11 in Portland's last 35 after a game that went UNDER and 18-8 in the Grizzlies last 26 as a road dog. Give me the OVER 234!
|10-25-21||Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229.5||119-109||Loss||-110||9 h 52 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 229.5)
The line here screams take the Pacers and I might end up throwing a little on Indiana in this one, but I think the even better value is on the OVER 229.5.
I think a lot of people expected this Pacers offense to struggle early with starters Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren sidelined. It hasn't. They got 3 guys who are scoring 20+ ppg. Sabonis is at 26.0 ppg, Brogdon is at 24.7 ppg and 1st round rookie Duarte is at 20.3 ppg. They rank in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency. They also are playing fast, as they rank 5th in the NBA in pace.
They also catch a break in this one, as the Bucks will be without two starters and two of their better defenders in Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday.
You might be wondering about the Bucks offense without those two guys, but they still got Antetokounmpo and Middleton to carry that offense. I also don't think this Pacers defense is anything special. They just held Miami to 91 in their last game, but that Heat team shot horrific and really looked lost without point guard Kyle Lowry. Give me the OVER 229.5!
|10-24-21||Chiefs v. Titans OVER 57||3-27||Loss||-110||68 h 19 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 57)
We didn't get their with the Chiefs OVER last week, as KC's defense played it's best game of the year. The Chiefs held Washington scoreless in the 2nd half and to just 13 points for the game. While I would expect that KC defense to not be as bad as it was to start the year, let's not forget who they were playing. Washington is a complete mess right now.
I just don't see a scenario in this game where the Chiefs are able to contain Derek Henry for the Titans. KC has one of the worst run defenses in the league, giving up 133 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. Tennessee is going to be in 2nd and short all game long.
On the flip side of this, the Chiefs offense should be in for a field day as well. While Patrick Mahomes and that KC offense hasn't quite looked as good as what we expected to see, they are still an elite offensive team. They are scoring 30.8 ppg, putting up 434 ypg and averaging 6.6 yards/play.
Mahomes and that Chiefs offense will be up against a bad Titans defense. Tennessee is giving up 276 passing yards/game and 7.7 passing yards per attempt. That's with playing half of their games against the Jags, Jets and Colts. They gave up 280 to Kyler Murray, 320 to Russell Wilson and 335 to Josh Allen. Mahomes has thrown for 740 yards and 6 TDs in his last 2 starts vs the Titans. Play the OVER 57!
|10-23-21||Georgia Tech v. Virginia OVER 63||40-48||Win||100||54 h 50 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Late Night Total SHARP PLAY (Over 63)
I like the OVER 63 in Saturday's ACC matchup between Georgia Tech and Virginia. I just don't see the Yellow Jackets going on the road with that awful secondary and having any shot of slowing down Virginia's prolific passing attack. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 65% of their pass attempts and are averaging 8.2 yards/attempt.
Virginia is 3rd in the country in pass attempts per game behind junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong. He's already thrown for 2,824 yards and 19 TDs and is completing 64% of his attempts. Cavaliers are averaging 8.4 passing yards/attempt.
The only chance the Yellow Jackets have of making a game of this, is to go score for score with Virginia. I don't know if they can, but I do think they can get into the 20s no problem. I know the Cavaliers just shutout Duke last week, but this is not a very good Virginia defense. Give me the OVER 63!
|10-22-21||Suns v. Lakers UNDER 223||115-105||Win||100||23 h 50 m||Show|
40* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers ESPN Sharp Money INSIDER (Under 223)
It's a long season and one loss doesn't mean much, but no one wants to start the season poorly. I think there's going to be a sense of urgency for both the Suns and Lakers to play well and avoid starting 0-2 after upset losses in their season openers. LA got 30+ points from LeBron and AD and still lost 114-121 at home to the Warriors. Phoenix lost by double-digits at home 98-110 to the Nuggets.
You also got to factor in with how big a public team the Lakers are and this being a game that is televised on ESPN, it's going to get a decent amount of traffic. I think these big games can see some inflated totals and this definitely feels high to me.
The Lakers are simply too old to play a run and gun style for 82 games and adding Westbrook doesn't change that. You also got some chemistry issues with Westbrook trying to carve a role in an offense where he's not going to be the primary ball handler. It wasn't pretty in his debut, as he scored just 8 points with a mere 4 assists and 5 rebounds.
Suns are also a team that doesn't like to play fast. Phoenix T-26th in pace of play last year and basically brought the same roster back. These are also two teams that ranked in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 223!
|10-21-21||Broncos v. Browns UNDER 41||14-17||Win||100||21 h 3 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Broncos/Browns TNF NO-BRAINER (Under 41)
This is a game that I planned on just staying away from with all the big injuries to Cleveland, as I just didn't think there was enough value with Denver at less than a field goal (do I like the Broncos on a 6-pt teaser). That was until I saw the expected weather conditions for this game. It's expected to be very windy in Cleveland on Thursday. They are calling for consistent winds north of 20 mph with gusts pushing 30 mph.
You just can't throw the ball like you normally would when it's this windy and it can turn what would be easy field goals into 50/50 propositions.
It was already going to be a tall task for the Browns offense in this game. With Baker Mayfield sidelined, they are starting Case Keenum at quarterback. Both of their top two backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are out. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are both questionable, as are both starting offensive tackles.
The good news is the Browns should be fine defensively in this one. I know they have been torched the last two weeks by the Chargers and Cardinals, but those are two of the top offensive teams in the NFL. Denver struggles to just put 20 points on the scoreboard. They are averaging 21.0 ppg and that's with 3 games against the Giants, Jags and Jets. They are also a poor running team, which will make it that much harder on them with the poor throwing conditions. Give me the UNDER 41.
|10-21-21||Tulane v. SMU OVER 70.5||26-55||Win||100||21 h 32 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Thursday Night Total ANNIHILATOR (OVER 70.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 70.5 in Thursday's American Athletic matchup between Tulane and SMU. I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two teams to eclipse this number. The Mustangs rank 10th in the country in scoring at 40.7 ppg. Tulane isn't quite that potent, but are 36th at 32.8 ppg.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if SMU put up 50 points in this game. When faced up against a good offense, Tulane's defense hasn't been able to keep the opposing team out of the end zone. They gave up 40 to Oklahoma in Week 1 and we have seen how much better that OU offense is now compared to back then. They allowed 61 to Ole Miss and that's with the Rebels scoring their last point at the 7:35 mark in the 3rd quarter. They gave up 52 to East Carolina and 40 in their last game against Houston.
The big key here is I don't think we need 50 out of SMU to cash the OVER in this game. I know SMU's defensive numbers look pretty good. The Mustangs are only giving up 22.2 ppg and 391 ypg. However, a lot of that is who they have played. The only two games I think they have played an offense with a pulse is matchups vs TCU and La Tech. They gave up 34 to the Horned Frogs and 37 to the Bulldogs. I got Tulane in the 30s in this one. Give me the OVER 70.5!
|10-20-21||Bulls v. Pistons OVER 219.5||94-88||Loss||-109||21 h 45 m||Show|
40* (NBA) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 219.5)
I want to lay the points with Chicago in this one (might put a little on it), but feel the safer bet is on the OVER 219.5. This new look Bulls team is getting some hype coming into the season after adding Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan to form a pretty good top 4 with returnees Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. They also got a talented youngster in Pat Williams, who I like, and two more additions off the bench in Alex Caruso and Derrick Jones Jr.
I think they could be even better than people are expecting. With what's going on with Ben Simmons in Philly, there's reason to think this team could be right there fighting for that right to be the 3rd best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bucks and Nets.
Regardless if they live up to that or not, this is a team that I think will be one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. Few are better in the NBA at igniting the fast break than Ball and LaVine is one of the more electric open court players. I see this team playing a ton in transition and being one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league.
The big concern with Chicago is just how good can this team be defensively? I think it could have some problems, especially early in the year given the lack of chemistry they have playing together.
Detroit doesn't even figure to be in the running for a playoff spot this year. The Pistons simply put lack talent. They are rebuilding under Cade Cunningham. He's not going to play. I just think people have a hard time seeing the Pistons doing enough offensively to want to take the OVER in this game.
I just think the total is too low. I think Chicago will be pushing 120 points and don't think this defense on the road is going to hold Detroit under 100. Give me the OVER 219.5!
|10-17-21||Chiefs v. Washington Football Team OVER 55.5||31-13||Loss||-105||96 h 34 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)
I don't care what the number is, I want to be on the OVER in Chiefs' games as much as possible. At least until that defense shows us any sort of inkling that they can stop the opposing team from moving the ball up and down the field.
There's just not much to like with what you have seen from that KC defense. They don't have the size up front to keep teams from running the ball, they don't tackle great and they get zero pass rush.
I don't care if you think Washington's offense is good or not. They are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. Just look at what the Eagles did against this KC defense a couple weeks ago. The Chiefs weren't able to force a single punt out of Philly and that same Eagles offense managed just 273 yards last week against the Panthers (punted 5 times and had a safety in just the 1st half).
On the flip side of this, I still think Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is one of the best in the league. They have just had to press so much on offense against good teams because of how bad the defense has been, they haven't quite performed up to potential. Washington isn't good enough on defense to slow this offense down. They have given up 43 to the Bills, 30 to the Falcons and 33 to the Saints in their last 3 games. KC is going to score 30 and maybe even into the 40s. I think Washington also has a good shot here to put up close to 30 points. Give me the OVER 55.5!