06-29-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Houston Astros UNDER 7.5 |
|
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Love the value we are getting here with the total sitting at 7.5. Not the two most recognized starters, but two that are pitching extremely well at the moment. Kansas City's Joe Blanton has allowed a mere 2 runs on 7 hits in his first two starts, spanning 11 innings for a 1.64 ERA and 0.636 WHIP. Houston's Lance McCullers has a 1.17 ERA and 0.913 WHIP over 4 home starts and a 2.33 ERA and 1.036 WHIP overall. UNDER is 8-1-2 in the Royals last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 20-6-1 in their last 27 against a team with a winning record and 20-5-1 in the Astros last 26 against the AL Central. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
06-26-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH* The Indians will be hitting the road for the first time following a 7-game homestand, while the Orioles are returning home from a lengthy 8-game road trip. On top of that, both teams are coming off a big division series. Cleveland just got done playing Detroit and Baltimore just faced off against Boston. I just don't see the focus being there for the every day players, giving a big advantage to the two starters. The Indians send out reigning Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, who has allowed 1 run in his last 2 starts (14 2/3 innings) against the Orioles. Orioles send out Wei-Yin Chen, who is pitching lights out with a 1.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. UNDER is 7-2 in Chen's 9 home starts this season and 12-2 in Kluber's last 14 starts when working on 5 or 6 days of rest. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
06-25-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
106 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value we are getting here with positive juice on the over in this matchup. These two combined for 10 runs in the series opener on Tuesday and while they only managed 6 runs yesterday, both offenses are poised to put up a solid number. Orioles will be turning to Miguel Gonzalez, who will be making his first start off the DL. Gonzalez also has an ugly 6.04 ERA in 5 road starts. Boston counters with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 7.71 ERA at home. This will also be Rodriguez's 2nd start this month against the Orioles and I think that's a big edge to Baltimore's bats. Roll the OVER 8.5!
|
06-24-15 |
Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers UNDER 9 |
Top |
8-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* These two teams put up a big number in yesterday's series opener (14 runs), but I think it's aided to create some great value on the under tonight. Oakland's Kendall Graveman has been throwing lights out of late with a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He also has a stellar 1.78 ERA over 6 road starts on the season. Texas' Wany Rodriguez is also throwing the ball extremely well with a 2.37 ERA and 1.211 WHIP over his last 3. Rodriguez has a 5.06 ERA at home, but in his last start at home he held the Twins to 1 run on 3 hits over 6 2/3 innings. Roll the UNDER 9!
|
06-20-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* There's simply too much value here on the UNDER at 8.5. The Rangers will be sending out Nick Martinez, who has a 1.47 ERA and 1.064 WHIP over 6 road starts and a 1.69 ERA over 5 day starts. Chicago's Carlos Rodon has a 1.50 ERA and 1.278 WHIP over 3 home starts and will be taking on a Texas offense that has managed a whopping 2 runs on 8 hits over their last 2 games. UNDER is 9-1 in Chicago's last 10 home games after scoring 4 runs or less in 4 straight and 9-0 in their last 9 home games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less last time out. Roll the UNDER 8.5!
|
06-19-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER at 7.5. Washington will likely be without Bryce Harper, who left yesterday's game with a hamstring injury. Harper makes the Nationals offense go and I look for them to struggle to get anything going against veteran A.J. Burnett, who is 6-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.132 WHIP over 13 starts. Pittsburgh has scored 3 or fewer runs in 9 of their last 11 and Washington's Joe Ross just allowed 2 runs on 7 hits over 8 strong innings in his last start. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
06-18-15 |
Houston Astros v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5 |
Top |
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 37 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* In their 3 games during this 2 and 2 home/away split the Rockies and Astros have combined to score at least 9 runs and have pounded out 25 over their last 2. With how well the ball flies at Coors Field and the Astros ability to go deep up and down their lineup, I look for the offenses to continue to shine this afternoon. The Rockies will be starting David Hale, who has a 5.21 ERA over his last 3 starts and Houston will be sending out Collin McHugh and his 8.44 ERA and 1.687 WHIP over his last 3 outings. OVER is 8-1 in the Astros last 9 after scoring 8+ runs and 31-16 in the Rockies last 47 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses. Roll the OVER!
|
06-17-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 6.5 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* This defies logic as we have to aces facing off against one another, but you have to keep in mind of the talent these two teams have offensively and the fact that the game is being played in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Not to mention the wind is expecting to be blowing straight out to left-field. David Price has thrown back-to-back complete games and chances are he won't be as good as he was last two times out. OVER is 7-0 in Reds last 7 with a bullpen ERA of 3.00 or better over their last 10 and 13-4 in the Tigers last 17 after playing 17 or more straight games at home. Roll the OVER!
|
06-16-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8.5 |
|
3-19 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 13 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Both offenses should be on full display in this one. Philadelphia's Jerome Williams has an awful 7.18 ERA and 1.851 WHIP over 6 road starts this season, while Baltimore's Chris Tillman has a 5.40 ERA and 1.499 WHIP over 7 home starts. Orioles could surpass this total on their own, as they are averaging 4.8 runs/game at home and 5.6 over their last 7. OVER is 14-3 in Williams' last 17 road starts as an underdog of +150 to +200 and 20-4 in the Phillies last 24 games after the bullpen allowed no runs in 3 straight games. Roll the OVER 8.5!
|
06-10-15 |
Seattle Mariners v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
9-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* We are seeing an inflated total here due to the Mariners sending out Taijuan Walker, who has a 5.80 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 11 starts. Walker is much better than his numbers would suggest and he's showed some real positive signs of late. He's completed 8 innings in each of his last 2 starts, allowing just 3 runs on 7 hits with only 1 walk. That includes a start against the Indians, where he held them to just 2 hits in 8 innings. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer has a 1.75 ERA over has last 5 starts and just recently held Seattle to just 2 runs on 6 hits in 7 innings or work. I look for both offenses to struggle in this one. Roll the UNDER 8.5!
|
06-09-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 4 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I'm not expecting a lot of offense in this one. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been lights out over his first two big league starts, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits in 14 2/3 innings of work. Baltimore will send out Miguel Gonzalez, who has been rock-solid when he takes the mound at home. Gonzalez is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.808 WHIP in 6 home starts. He's also got a strong 3.26 ERA over 8 career starts against the Red Sox. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
06-08-15 |
San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value we are getting here with this total set at 7.5. Atlanta's Shelby Miller has a 1.67 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over 4 home starts, 3 of which have finished under the total. The reason we are seeing a total over 7 is the Padres' Ian Kennedy comes in with a 6.60 ERA. The key here is that Kennedy is coming off a strong start, allowing just 2 runs on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts in 6 innings. UNDER is 8-1 in Miller's 9 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs and 11-4 in Kennedy's last 15 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
06-07-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 202 |
|
95-93 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
40* NBA *TOTAL DOMINATOR* Game 1 would have went UNDER the total had it not been for overtime. With the Cavaliers now without Irving, there only hope is going to be to bear down defensively and hope James can be special offensively. The key here is Cleveland can't get into a shootout against the Warriors and I look for them to slow the tempo way down with James running a lot of isolation plays in the halfcourt. I just don't see there being enough possessions given how good these two teams are defensively for this one to go over the mark. Pound the UNDER 202!
|
06-06-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 |
|
2-8 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I'm backing the under in this matchup, as 8 runs is too much given the starting pitching matchup we have here. LA's Garrett Richards hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Yankees. New York's Adam Warren has a 2.05 ERA and 1.091 WHIP over 4 home starts and has seen each of his last 3 starts go under the mark. UNDER is 6-2 in Richards last 8 road starts against a team with a winning record and 4-0 in Warren's last 4 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
06-06-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I'm backing the under in today's showdown between the Rangers/Royals. The Rangers Wandy Rodriguez enters with a 2.03 ERA and 0.968 WHIP over 5 road starts. All 5 of those starts have finished under the total. The Royals Yordano Ventura has a 2.14 ERA and 0.762 WHIP over his last 3 starts, all of which saw fewer than 8 runs. UNDER is 22-8 in the Royals last 30 home games played on Saturday. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
06-04-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 204 |
|
100-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 30 m |
Show
|
40* NBA FINALS *TOTAL DOMINATOR* I look for nerves to play a big factor here in Game 1, as most of the players on these two rosters have never experienced the adrenaline that comes with playing in the NBA Finals. I believe it's going to lead to some sloppy play offensively and guys missing some shots they normally would make. However, that extra energy should payoff defensively. Golden State is one of the most efficient defensive teams and have the DPOY in Green to matchup against James. On the flip side, the Cavs are playing extremely well defensively right now. Roll the UNDER 204!
|
06-04-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
6-2 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY*
Neither of these teams are swinging a hot bat. The Royals have scored just 6 runs in their last 3 games combined and the Indians have managed just 2 a piece in their last two games. On top of that we have two underrated starters on the mound. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer has a 0.99 ERA over 4 road starts (Under is 4-0) and Kansas City's Chris Young has a 0.54 ERA in 3 home starts. Add in two very strong bullpens and I don't expect to see many runs crossing the plate in this one. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
06-03-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *AL TOTAL CRUSHER* Love the value we are getting with this total sitting at 7.5. The value comes from having two underrated starters on the mound in Tampa's Nate Karns and LA's Hector Santiago. Karns has a 2.16 ERA over his last 3 starts and has been spectacular on the road, posting a 0.79 ERA and 0.662 WHIP over 4 starts. Santiago has a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 and a 1.49 ERA in 6 home starts. UNDER is 13-4 in the Rays 17 road night games this season, 13-3-1 in their last 17 after allowing 2 runs or less and 27-12-1 in Angels last 40 home games against a team with a winning record. Roll the UNDER!
|
06-02-15 |
Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *MLB GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* These two starters faced off last Tuesday in Minnesota and it ended up in a 2-1 pitcher's duel. I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair tonight. Boston's Clay Buchholz has a sensational 1.99 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 2.97 ERA in his last 5 outings against the Twins. Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey has a 2.77 ERA on the season and a 1.93 ERA over 2 career starts against the Red Sox. UNDER is 16-5 in Boston's last 21 home games after 2 straight games without a home run and 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 4 runs or less in 3 straight. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
05-28-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 6.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOP PLAY* TOTAL
Two low-scoring teams here with a couple of pitchers who have been dominant of late. Cleveland's Corey Kluber has given up just two earned runs over his last three starts, giving him a 0.72 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in those games. He's also striking out batters at a high rate this year (83 Ks in 69 2/3 innings), so opponents simply aren't getting runners on base. Meanwhile, the Mariners' James Paxton has put together some impressive numbers in his own right. Over his last three starts he's given up just 2 runs as well (both in one game) and he's sporting a 0.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in that span. He's not as dominant in terms of strikeouts, but he doesn't need to be against an Indians team that is hitting just .244 on the road this season. Roll the Under 6.5 runs!
|
05-23-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
115-80 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
|
50* NBA PLAYOFFS *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOP PLAY* TOTAL
Big Game 3 with a chance for the Rockets to win their first game of the series or the Warriors to go up 3-0. Expect another strong defensive effort out of both teams. Golden State's offense isn't quite as potent on the road, while the Rockets defense is significantly better on their home court. Roll the UNDER 214.5!
|
05-22-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
12-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* I cashed in on the Red Sox/Angels UNDER 8.5 in yesterday's 3-1 final and I'll gladly take the UNDER again in the second game of the series with the same total. Boston's offense is in a major funk right now (1.9 runs/game L7) and will be going up against the red-hot Garrett Richards (1.69 ERA over L3). Boston's Rick Porcello is also in top form right now, posting a 2.41 ERA over his last 3. In his last two starts against the Angels, Porcello has allowed just 1 earned run in 14 innings of work. Roll the UNDER 8.5!
|
05-21-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
111 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* The value is clearly on the under in today's matchup between the Rangers and Red Sox. Boston's Clay Buchholz is starting to turn things around. He's got a 3.92 ERA and 1.162 WHIP over his last 3 starts. In his last outing he limited the Mariners to just 1 run on 3 hits with 11 strikeouts in 8 innings of work. As for Rangers starter Wandy Rodriguez, he's got a 1.42 ERA and 0.789 WHIP over 3 road starts, with all 3 of those going under the total (2 of Buchholz 3 home starts have also gone under). Roll the UNDER 8.5!
|
05-20-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL DOMINATOR* The Indians and White Sox have went UNDER the total in each of their last 12 meetings and I expect the streak to hit 13 after the conclusion of tonight's game. Cleveland will send out Shawn Marcum, who will be making his first start since July of 2013. Marcum looked sharp in 5 innings of relief against the Tigers earlier this season and has posted a 1.36 ERA over his last 5 minor league starts. Chicago's Carlos Rondon has had some control problems in his first two big league starts, but his 13 strikeouts in 10 innings over his first two starts provide a ton of optimism. Rondon was also much better in his lone home start, allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits over 6 innings. With both offenses in a funk, 8 is a big number here. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
05-20-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 197 |
|
97-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
40* NBA PLAYOFFS *TOTAL CRUSHER* Atlanta has had a full 4 days of rest since closing out the Wizards and the Cavaliers have enjoyed 5 days off since finishing off the Bulls. With fresh legs and two explosive offensive teams, I look for Game 1 to fly over the total posted of 197. One of the big keys here is the extra time off should prove to be huge for Irving, who was really limited against Chicago. You also have to keep in mind that each of the 4 meetings during the regular season featured at least 205 points with both meetings in Atlanta reaching at least 210. Roll the OVER 197!
|
05-19-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* The books have set the bar too low for this total The Giants come in having scored 30 runs in their last 3 games and have recorded 10+ hits in 8 of their last 9 overall. I look for them to stay hot at the plate against the Dodgers Carlos Frias, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.400 WHIP on the road. I also expect LA to put up a decent amount of runs here. Tim Hudson is 1-3 with with a 4.57 ERA and 1.346 WHIP over 7 starts and has a 5.74 ERA at home. Roll the OVER 7!
|
05-15-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* It's not been the start the Red Sox were hoping for with Clay Buchholz, but I'm confident he's going to get this thing turned around. Buchholz snapped a 5-start losing streak in his last outing, allowing just 3 runs over 6 1/3 innings of a 6-3 win at Toronto. He's getting ready to face a Seattle offense in a bit of a funk, as the Mariners have scored just 3 runs in their last 2 games. Boston doesn't figure to do a whole lot offensively either. The Red Sox are hitting an awful .188 against southpaws this season and will be going up against lefty J.A. Happ, who has a 2.33 ERA and 1.086 WHIP over 3 home starts. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
05-15-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 194 |
|
108-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
40* NBA *TOTAL DOMINATOR* All 5 games so far in the series have finished UNDER the total with 188 being the highest scoring game to this point. I look for the streak to continue. Memphis is a defensive-minded team and know there only hope is to grind out a win in a low-scoring game. Facing elimination and getting Allen back in the lineup, should have the Grizzlies locked in defensively. The problem for Memphis is they can't score enough even when their D plays well. The Grizzlies offensive output continues to falter as the series progresses and I don't see the Warriors letting up on that side of the ball with a chance to advance to the conference finals. Roll the UNDER 194!
|
05-14-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 192 |
|
94-73 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
40* NBA PLAYOFFS *TOTAL DOMINATOR* Theses two teams flew over the total in Game 5, combining for 207 points in Cleveland. I don't think we are going to see anywhere close to that kinda of scoring output in Game 6 at Chicago. The last time these two teams played in Chicago, they combined for just 170 points. The Bulls season is on the line and this is a team that defines itself on the defensive end. Chicago is going to bring every ounce of energy they have on that side of the ball. Cleveland's focus could be lacking, knowing they have a game to spare and get the all-important Game 7 at home. Bulls intensity defensively and their inability to score consistently on offense, should have this one going well below the mark. Roll the UNDER 192!
|
05-13-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 195.5 |
|
78-98 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
40* NBA PLAYOFFS *TOTAL DOMINATOR* The books continue to set the total too high for these two teams. Each of the first four games in the series have seen a combined score of 188 or less points. I don't see any reason why that trend will come to an end in the all important Game 5 with the series tied at 2-2. Memphis had done an outstanding job defending the 3-point line in the series before allowing the Warriors to go 14 of 33 (42%) from long distance in Game 4. Even with that hot shooting from the outside, Golden State still only managed 101 points. Roll the UNDER 195.5!
|
05-12-15 |
San Diego Padres v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-11 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value we are getting in this one with the total set at 7.5. Seattle's James Paxton has overcome a poor start to 2015 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.178 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Ian Kennedy of the Padres is also coming into this game throwing the ball extremely well. Kennedy has allowed just 3 runs on 10 hits over his last two starts (13 innings). Dating back to July 7 of last year, Kennedy has a 2.65 ERA over his last 9 road starts. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
05-10-15 |
Houston Astros v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
102 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY Really like the value here with the total sitting at 7.5. Angels' Garrett Richards has been dealing of late, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3 starts, lowing his season ERA down to 2.52. Richards has been especially tough to hit at home, where he's allowed just 3 earned runs in 14 innings of work. I look for Richards to keep the Astros offense in check in this one, while Houston starter Scott Feldman keeps LA from putting up a big number. Feldman has pitched well against the Angels of late, as he hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in his last 7 starts against them. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
05-09-15 |
New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value here with the total set at 7.5. The Phillies have an anemic offense that comes in scoring just 2.8 runs/game with a .228 average. Mets starter Jon Neise hasn't had any problems keeping Philadelphia's offense in check over his career, as he's got a 2.92 ERA and 1.214 WHIP over 20 career starts. The key here is that we can also anticipate a tough day at the plate for New York. Phillies starter Aaron Harang as a sensational 2.35 ERA and 0.965 WHIP over 6 starts and a 0.00 ERA and 0.419 WHIP over 2 home starts. To top it off, Harang has allowed a total of just 4 earned runs over his previous 5 starts against the Mets (31 innings). Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
05-08-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 195.5 |
|
96-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
40* NBA *TOTAL KNOCKOUT* I believe we are in for the lowest scoring output of the series. These two teams combined for just 191 in Game 1 and 197 in Game 2 at Cleveland. Chicago simply didn't show up defensively in Game 2 and yet that still almost finished under the mark. With the series shifting to Chicago, I look for a huge defensive effort here from the Bulls. On top of that, I look for the Cavs roll players to cool off from long-distance on the road. Keep in mind Cleveland hit a ridiculous 12 of 26 (46%) from behind the 3-point line in Game 2 (only 7 of 26, 27% in Game 1). Roll the UNDER 195.5!
|
05-06-15 |
Oakland A's v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 |
Top |
0-13 |
Loss |
-118 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* The books have set the mark too high for tonight's contest between the A's and Twins. Not only do we have two underrated starters on the mound, but the wind will be blowing in at roughly 15 mph at Target Field. Oakland will send out Scott Kazmir, who has a 1.62 ERA and 0.930 WHIP over 5 starts against the Twins' Kyle Gibson, who has a sensational 0.61 ERA and 0.954 WHIP over two home starts. Both offenses are also coming off a poor showing in yesterday's 2-1 win for the A's, adding more value to a low-scoring affair in this one. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
05-06-15 |
New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 |
|
1-5 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* The Yankees come into this game averaging 5.1 runs/game on the road, while the Blue Jays are averaging 5.2 runs/game at home. Both offenses get even better when facing a left-handed starter, which will be the case today. New York is average 5.5 runs/game against a southpaw starter and Toronto is averaging 5.7. Adding to this is the fact that we have two struggling starters taking the mound in C.C. Sabathia and Mark Buehrle. Sabathia has a 5.40 ERA and 1.389 WHIP over 5 starts and Buehrle has a 6.75 ERA and 1.929 WHIP over 5 starts. Roll the OVER 8.5!
|
05-05-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *AL EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH* The Rays have seen each of their last 9 games finish below the the total, as they continue to pitch well and struggle to do much of anything offensively. I'm expecting that trend to continue tonight with Tampa sending out Drew Smyly against Rick Porcello of the Red Sox. Smyly has a 3.37 ERA and 0.843 WHIP over 2 starts, while Porcello comes in off a dominant start at home against Toronto, where he allowed 1 run on 2 hits over 7 innings. Smyly has a 3.57 ERA over 3 career starts against the Red Sox and Porcello has a 3.21 ERA in 7 career starts against the Rays (Under is 6-1 in his 7 starts). Roll the UNDER 8!
|
05-03-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins OVER 8 |
|
6-2 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL KNOCKOUT* The Marlins are swinging a hot bat, as they come in averaging 5.3 runs and hitting .328 as a team over their last 7 games. Miami has scored 7 runs in two of their last 3 games and I wouldn't be shocked if they eclipsed this total on their own. Philadelphia will be sending out Severino Gonzalez, who was rocked for 7 runs on 10 hits in 2 2/3 innings in his MLB debut against the Cardinals. Roll the OVER 8!
|
05-02-15 |
Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 |
Top |
4-11 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH* I believe we are seeing a high total here due to the fact that Seattle starter Taijuan Walker comes in with a 6.87 ERA and 1.831 WHIP over his first 4 starts. Most of the damange with Walker's ERA and WHIP came in his first two starts. He's allowed 1 earned run over his last two outings, giving up just 10 hits with 13 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings. Walker held the Astros to just 1 run on 4 hits earlier this season. As for the other side of things, Houston's Collin McHugh is 3-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.176 WHIP over 4 starts and was sensational in his lone home start of 2015. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
05-02-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I think this is a great value play here with the total sitting at 7.5. Detroit will be sending out their ace in David Price, who has a 2.25 ERA and 1.250 WHIP over 2 road starts and a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Royals. Kansas City counters with Edinson Volquez, who has been better than they expected. Volquez has a 1.91 ERA and 0.847 WHIP over 4 starts. Don't see either team doing much offensively in this one. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
05-01-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
109 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL DOMINATOR* Chicago comes in averaging just 3.1 runs/game on the road and the Twins are scoring just 3.9 runs/game on the season. I think 8 is a big number here and expect this one to easily go under the total. White Sox will send out Jose Quintana, who is coming off a strong start at home against the Royals, allowing just 2 runs over 7 innings. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson has a 1.35 ERA at home and a 2.89 ERA over his last 3 starts. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
04-30-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL* Really like the value we are getting here with this high total in tonight's showdown between the Royals and Tigers. Detroit's Alfredo Simon is 4-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in his first 4 starts. He's allowed just 2 earned runs over his last 22 innings of work. Kansas City counters with Danny Duffy, who is quietly getting better with each start. Duffy got rocked in his season debut, but has since posted a 2.70 ERA over his last 3. Duffy has a respectable has allowed just 4 earned runs combined in his last 3 against the Tigers. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
04-29-15 |
New York Mets v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-7 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH* The books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Mets and Marlins. New York will be sending out veteran Bartolo Colon, who is 4-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.885 WHIP over his first 4 starts of 2015. One of those includes a game against the Marlins, where he allowed just 1 run on 6 hits over 7 innings of a 4-1 win. Miami's Mat Latos will oppose Colon and is a big part of the value we are getting here. Latos has a 7.31 ERA and 1.875 WHIP over 4 starts, but has allowed 2 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts and has shown improvement with each outing. Latos held the Mets to 2 runs on 6 hits over 5 innings earlier this year and has a 2.63 ERA and 1.152 WHIP over 9 career starts against New York. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
04-28-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
109 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *AL CENTRAL PLAY OF THE MONTH* The books have set up a favorable total here to back the UNDER. Detroit's Anibal Sanchez bounced back from a couple bad starts with his best outing of the season. Sanchez held the Yankees to just 1 run on 1 hit over 6 1/3 innings. He's got a 2.34 career ERA against the Twins and in a previous start against Minnesota this season he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings. Mike Pelfrey has been better than expected to start the year and he too is coming off his best start. Pelfrey threw 7 shutout innings at Kansas City, giving him a 2.65 ERA and 1.294 WHIP over his first 3 starts. Runs will be hard to come by for both teams. Roll the UNDER 8.5!
|
04-28-15 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 7 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I look for both teams to struggle to get their offenses going in this one. The Brewers are atrocious offensively and will be facing Cincinnati's ace Johnny Cueto, who has a 2.92 ERA and 1.063 WHIP over 17 career starts against Milwaukee. He's pitched at least 8 innings in each of his last 3 starts against the Brewers, and allowed just 3 runs combined. Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse limited the Reds to 2 runs on 3 hits over 7 innings in his last start and has a 2.69 career ERA and 1.082 WHIP against Cincinnati. Roll the UNDER 7!
|
04-27-15 |
Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers UNDER 9 |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Seattle's Taijuan Walker finally pitched up to his ability in his last start, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits with 8 strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings of work. However, Walker comes in with a 10.66 ERA over 3 starts, which is why we are seeing such a big total. I look for both offenses to struggle in this one, as Texas counters with undervalued Yovani Gallardo, who has given up just 5 earned runs in his last 3 starts and threw 6 shutout innings against the Mariners back on 4/17. UNDER is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs and 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 games as a home favorite. Roll the UNDER 9!
|
04-25-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-121 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *TOTAL TOP PLAY* The average runs scored in Diamondbacks' home games this season is 8.9 and I see no reason why tonight's contest won't eclipse the 9 run mark. Pittsburgh's A.J. Burnett is not as good as his 2.00 ERA would suggest, as he comes in with a 1.33 WHIP over 3 starts. He's somehow managed to allow just 4 earned runs, despite giving up 19 hits and 5 walks over 16 innings of work. On the other side we have Rubby De La Rosa, who has allowed 13 runs on 23 hits (4 HRs) and 5 walks over his first 3 starts. De La Rosa was especially bad in his lone home start in 2015, giving up 6 runs in just 5 1/3 innings. Roll the OVER 8.5!
|
04-24-15 |
Houston Astros v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* The starting pitching matchup of Dallas Kuechel and Scott Kazmir might not sound like a pitchers duel, but that's exactly what I'm expecting from these two underrated starters. Kuechel is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his first 3 starts, while Kazmir is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Kuechel has allowed a total of 4 earned runs in his last 3 outings against the A's and Kazmir has given up just 5 earned runs his last 3 vs the Astros. Roll the UNDER!
|
04-24-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 203 |
|
73-100 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
40* NBA PLAYOFFS *LINE MISTAKE* I believe we are seeing a huge overreaction here to the fact that these two teams combined for 218 points in Game 2. You have to keep in mind that 30 of those points came in overtime, as the two only combined for 188 in regulation. They only combined for 199 in Game 1. Series tend to get lower scoring as the progress and I especially think that will be the case with this one being locked up at 1-1 and the Spurs more than likely having to slow the pace down with Parker at less than 100%. Roll the UNDER 203!
|
04-24-15 |
Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *NL EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH* I'm expecting a very low-scoring game tonight between these two division rivals. Washington will send out Jordan Zimmerman whose one bad start at Boston has his numbers way off. Zimmerman has allowed a total of 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts against the Marlins. Miami counters with Mat Latos, who has also pitched much worse than his ability to start the season. Latos has shown signs of progress in each of his last two starts and has a 2.66 ERA over 7 career starts against the Nationals. UNDER is also 9-1 in Latos' last 10 starts against an NL team with an OBP of .315 or worse. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
04-23-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics OVER 203.5 |
|
103-95 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
40* NBA PLAYOFFS *TOTAL DOMINATOR* This is do or die for the Celtics down 0-2 heading home for Game 3. Boston doesn't have the size inside or the talent offensively to beat this Cleveland team in a halfcourt game. The Celtics are going to be looking to push the pace and should be able to get a few more shots to fall at home. Keep in mind Boston scored 91 points in Game 2, despite shooting a mere 38.8% from the field. Cleveland is going to score, as the Celtics have no answer for James and Irving. It's also about that time that J.R. Smith shows up to the playoffs (3 for 15 from 3-point distance). Roll the OVER 203.5!
|
04-21-15 |
Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-114 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *AL CENTRAL PLAY OF THE MONTH* We are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that today's starters just recently faced off against each other in a 8-5 Twins win last Thursday in Minnesota. Royals' starter Jason Vargas has been a much stronger pitcher at home than on the road. Prior to his poor outing against the Twins last week, Vargas had allowed a total of 3 earned runs over his previous 4 starts against Minnesota. Twins starter Tom Milone is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA over his first two starts of 2015. UNDER is 78-37 (68%) when you have a total of 7 to 8.5 where the home team is starting a pitcher that has walked 1 or fewer in each of his last two outings and a bullpen that hasn't allowed a run in 3 straight games. Roll UNDER 8!
|
04-20-15 |
New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 9 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
105 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOP PLAY* Really like the value we are getting here with the total sitting at a hefty 9 runs. Detroit will send out Alfredo Simon, who is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his first two starts of 2015, improving to 6-1 with a 1.72 ERA over his last 7 April starts. C.C. Sabathia will be on the mound for New York. While he's allowed 4 earned runs in each of his first two starts, he's pitched much better than that. He's walked just 1 batter over 12 2/3 innings and has 15 strikeouts. Sabathia has a 2.51 ERA over his last 4 starts against the Tigers. Roll UNDER 9!
|
04-19-15 |
Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL TOTAL DESTROYER* Tonight's showdown features Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright against Cincinnati's Mike Leake. This might seem like a pitchers duel on paper, but I'm expecting both offenses to steal the spotlight. Leake has a 5.16 ERA and 1.383 WHIP over 13 career starts against St Louis, while Wainwright has a 4.51 ERA and 1.288 WHIP over 17 career starts versus the Reds. OVER is 73-34 (68%) over the last 5 seasons (5-0 this year) in games where you have a team coming off 4 or more consecutive wins and a winning record on the season. Roll the OVER 7!
|
04-19-15 |
Miami Marlins v. New York Mets OVER 6.5 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* We are getting some great value here with this small total, which is largely due to the fact that the Mets are sending out their ace Matt Harvey. In his last start, Harvey allowed 3 runs on 5 hits and the big key here is that he's failed to pitch past the 6th inning in each of his first two starts. New York's offense is red-hot, scoring 4+ runs in 5 straight games and I look for them to put up another big number here against Tom Koehler and the Marlins. OVER is 73-34 (68%) over the last 5 seasons (5-0 this year) in games where you have a team coming off 4 or more consecutive wins and a winning record on the season. Roll the OVER 6.5!
|
04-18-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
112 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL DOMINATOR* I'm expecting a pitchers duel tonight in Los Angeles. Houston's Dallas Keuchel has been rock solid over his first two starts of 2015, allowing just 2 earned runs over 14 innings of work. He's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 2 of his last 3 starts against the Angels. LA counters with C.J. Wilson, who after a dominant first start against the Mariners, was hit hard at home by the Royals. This is a prime bounce back spot for Wilson against the light-hitting Astros, who are averaging just 1.9 runs/game at home behind a horrible .175 team average and .256 OBP. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
04-17-15 |
Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 6.5 |
|
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL DOMINATOR* Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto held the Cardinals to just 1 earned run on 4 hits back on April 11, but he's not fared well when taking the mound in St Louis. Cueto has a 5.80 ERA over his last 9 starts away from home against the Cardinals. Michael Wacha will take the mound for St Louis. He was also the opposing starter back when Cueto faced off against the Cardinals earlier this season. While Wacha pitched well in that start, he allowed 8 runs on 12 hits in 8 2/3 innings over his last two starts against the Reds in 2014. Both offenses should benefit from having just seen these two starts, which makes this an easy play for me. Roll the OVER 6.5!
|
04-17-15 |
Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH* Too much value here on the total sitting at 7.5. Oakland's Sonny Gray is a legit Cy Young candidate and has been lights out in his first two starts of 2015, allowing just 1 run on 7 hits over 15 1/3 innings of work. While Kansas City's Jeremy Guthrie allowed 4 runs in his first start, he was able to go 7 innings and the A's have not been as strong offensively on the road, where they come in with a .290 OBP. Both of Gray's starts against KC last year ended with 4 runs or less, including a 0-1 pitchers duel against Guthrie. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
04-16-15 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *DIAMOND TOTAL TOP PLAY* The Brewers offense was struggling as it was and now will likely be without the services of one of their top offensive weapons in Carlos Gomez. The Brewers come in averaging just 2.9 runs/game and are hitting just .229 with a .276 OBP to start the season. I look for John Lackey of the Cardinals to bounce back from a rough first start and keep Milwaukee's offense in check. At the same time, I'm not expecting a lot of runs here from St Louis either, as Michael Fiers has saved his best for the Cardinals. Fiers has a 1.40 ERA and 1.130 WHIP over 4 career starts against the Cardinals. He limited them to just 3 runs over 13 2/3 innings in his 2 starts against them last year. Roll the UNDER 7.5!
|
04-15-15 |
Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL DOMINATOR* Edinson Volquez was dominant in his debut with Kansas City, limiting the White Sox to just 1 run on 4 hits over 8 innings. I look for him to have no problem keeping a struggling Minnesota offense in check. While the Twins Kyle Gibson wasn't sharp in his first start of 2015, he's 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 1.086 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Royals. In his two outings vs Kansas City last season, he held them to just 1 runs on 7 hits over 13 1/3 innings of work. Roll the UNDER 8.5!
|
04-14-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Diego Padres UNDER 6.5 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *TOTAL DOMINATOR* These two teams combined for 12 runs in yesterday's series opener. That combined with the way the overs have been hitting are going to have the public all over the OVER with this one sitting at 6.5. I believe the books are showing their hand with this total and I'll take my chances on the the UNDER in his one. Arizona's Jeremy Hellickson struggled in his first start at home, but should be in line for a bounce back start against a struggling Padres offense in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. I'm also expecting a strong showing here from San Diego starter Odrisamer Despaigne, who can in for relief of an injured Ian Kennedy and tossed 4 2/3 perfect innigns. Despaigne had a 3.36 ERA over 16 starts as a rookie in 2014, including a 2.96 ERA in four starts against Arizona (1.32 ERA in two meetings at home). Roll the UNDER 6.5!
|
04-13-15 |
New York Yankees v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOP PLAY* I'm expecting a low-scoring affair today between the Orioles and Yankees. New York will be sending out Michael Pindeda, who when healthy has pitched like a Cy Young candidate. Orioles will counter with Wei-Yin Chen. While Chen struggled in his first start on the road, he's been extremely reliable at home. UNDER is 33-16 in Chen's last 49 starts with a money line of +125 to -125 and 27-10 in the Orioles last 37 home games against division opponents. Roll the UNDER 8!
|
04-12-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 |
|
10-2 |
Win
|
105 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
40* MLB *OVER/UNDER LOCKDOWN* With Francisco Liriano not available for personal reasons, the Pirates are forced to call up 24-year-old Casey Sadler to make his first ever big league start. Sadler did make 6 relief appearances last year with Pittsburgh and was torched for 9 runs on 12 hits and 5 walks over just 10 1/3 innings of work. Milwaukee will start Kyle Lohse, who got rocked in his first start, allowing 8 runs on 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings. All signs point to both teams putting up a big number. Roll the OVER 8.5!
|
04-12-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8 |
Top |
7-5 |
Win
|
110 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *MONEY LINE TOP PLAY* Two inexperienced starters taking the mound in this one and I look for this game to fly over the total of 8. Both of these teams have a potent offensive attack. Cincinnati will start Risel Iglesias, who is making his big league debut, while the Cardinals counter with Carlos Martinez, who had a 4.03 ERA over 57 appearances in 2014. Roll the OVER 8!
|
04-11-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *TOTAL TOP PLAY* This game screams for a bunch of runs, as both teams used up their bullpen in last night's 19-inning marathon. It's going to require both teams to stick with their starters even if they get into trouble early and there's a good chance both starters could struggle. New York will send out Adam Warren, who has primarily been used out of the bullpen (3 career starts) and Boston counters with Joe Kelly, who has been bothered by a biceps injury. Roll the OVER!
|
04-08-15 |
Atlanta Braves v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
108 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
50* MLB *TOTAL OF THE MONTH* Atlanta scored 7 runs in the 1st and 4 in the 9th in yesterday's 12-2 win over the Marlins. While it was a nice showing offensively for the Braves, this is not a good offensive team and I look for the finale to resemble more of the opening game in the series that saw a combined 3 runs scored. Miami's offense is ice-cold to start the year and I think people are underestimating Shelby Miller. UNDER is 10-1 over the last two seasons in Marlins home games when they are revenging 2 straight home losses to an opponent. Roll the UNDER 7!
|
04-04-15 |
Washington Wizards v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 188 |
|
92-83 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
40-STAR NBA *TOTAL CRUSHER* With both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, I'm not expecting either team to look to push the pace and neither plays at a very fast tempo anyway. The key thing here is that this game means a lot to Memphis, who is currently tied for 2nd in the west with Houston. Washington on the other hand seems content with the No. 5 seed as they have already started rest players. Grizzlies should dictate the tempo and whenever that's the case the under is a wise investment. Roll UNDER 188!
|
04-03-15 |
Denver Nuggets v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
93-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
50-STAR NBA *PERSONAL FAVORITE* TOP PLAY The Spurs have won all 3 of the previous meetings this season, which sets up a very profitable system on the total in this matchup. UNDER is 31-9 with a total of 200 to 209.5 when you have a team playing with triple-revenge against an opponent off a road win by 10+ points. Adding to this is the fact that the UNDER is 10-2 in Spurs last 12 off a road win by 10+ and 0-4 in the Nuggets last 4 road games when listed as a dog of 12.5 or more points. Roll the UNDER 208.5!
|
04-01-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 210.5 |
|
126-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
40-STAR NBA *TOTAL SMASH* This is too many points for how important a game this is to these two teams, plus you have the Clippers coming off a huge game last night at home against Golden State. Teams coming off a home loss against the Warriors and are playing as a road dog on no rest have seen the UNDER cash 6 out 7 times this season. Adding to this is the fact that the UNDER is 16-6 in Blazers last 22 home games with a total set at 210 or more points and 15-6 in their last 21 home games against teams who give up 99+ points/game. Roll the UNDER 210.5!
|
03-24-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 205 |
Top |
122-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
50-STAR NBA *TOTAL OF THE MONTH* The Trail Blazers recently lost starting shooting guard Wesley Matthews for the rest of the season and are also expected to be without the services of starting power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, starting small forward Nicolas Batum and backup center Chris Kaman. That leaves Portland with a thin bench, which I believe is going to have them looking to slow down the pace of this game against the Warriors. Golden State has continued to play extremely well without Klay Thompson, but could struggle to come out motivated here against a depleted Portland roster in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 4th in the last 5 days overall. UNDER is 12-4 in Portland's last 16 home games against teams averaging 103+ ppg and 15-3 in their last 18 home games with a total set at 200 or more points. Roll the UNDER 205!
|
03-22-15 |
Detroit Pistons v. Boston Celtics UNDER 196.5 |
|
105-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
40-STAR NBA *OVER/UNDER TOTAL SMASH* Both teams will be missing key parts of their offense and I look for that to translate into a low-scoring game that finishes well below the mark set here. The Celtics will be without Jared Sullinger, Isaiah Thomas, and Marcus Smart, while the Pistons will be missing big man Greg Monroe. On top of this Detroit is only averaging 95.8 ppg over their last 5 and Boston has scored fewer than 100 in 4 of their last 6. UNDER is 10-1 in Pistons last 11 road games after covering 2 of their last 3 and 13-3 in the Celtics last 16 after covering 3 of their last 4. Roll the UNDER 196.5!
|
03-17-15 |
Montana v. Texas A&M OVER 134 |
|
64-81 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
40-STAR NIT *OVER/UNDER ANNIHILATOR* Both of these teams are feeling the heartbreak of missing out on the NCAA Tournament and I believe the disappointment is going to carry over to the defensive side of the ball in this opening round NIT matchup. Montana comes in averaging 71.3 ppg, while the Aggies are scoring 70.7 ppg at home. OVER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Roll the OVER 134!
|
03-17-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 185 |
|
95-105 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
40-STAR NBA *TOTAL CRUSHER* Both of these teams are struggling offensively right now, as each comes in averaging just 91.8 ppg over their last 4. I'm expecting that trend to continue and for this one to finish well below the mark tonight. These two teams combined for just 183 points in their previous meeting this season. UNDER is 21-5-1 in Memphis's last 27 overall, 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 7-2 in their last 9 vs the Eastern Conference. UNDER is 10-3 in Detroit's last 13 overall, 9-3 in their last 12 following a loss and 5-1 in their last 6 vs the Southwest. Roll the UNDER 185!
|
03-14-15 |
New York Knicks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 202.5 |
|
94-125 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 40 m |
Show
|
40-STAR NBA *TOTAL CRUSHER* This is too high a total for this matchup. The Knicks are clearly outmatched here, which is evident by the massive spread. Blowouts tend to lead to lower scoring games and I expect that to be the case here. Knicks play at a painfully slow pace and I don't expect Golden State to be looking to up the tempo in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, especially after just playing on the road in the high altitude of Denver. UNDER is 39-10 (80%) since 1996 in games where you have a total set at 200 to 209.5 with a home team that is averaging 102+ ppg against an opponent that is only scoring 92-98 ppg, after 42+ games and after a loss by 10+ points. Roll the UNDER 202.5!
|
03-04-15 |
New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 189 |
|
82-105 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 7 m |
Show
|
40-STAR NBA *TOTAL DOMINATOR* This is too many points for this matchup. The Knicks offer little to no threat offensively and are coming in off a game at home against the Kings where they scored just 86 points on 36.6% shooting. The Pacers are only allowing 95.2 ppg at home and just held a similarly bad team in the 76ers to just 74 points in their last contest. New York isn't a great defensive team, but the Pacers aren't a great offensive team and I look for a strong effort here from the Knicks off that ugly 38-point home loss to the Kings. UNDER is 21-9 in New York's last 30 off 3 or more consecutive games that finished over the total and 7-0 in the Pacers last 7 home games after winning 3 of their last 4. Roll the UNDER 189!
|
03-04-15 |
Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 136 |
|
71-59 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 24 m |
Show
|
40-STAR NCAAB *OVER/UNDER TOTAL SMASH* I believe the books have set the mark too low for this matchup. In the last 13 meetings between these two teams, the OVER has cashed 11 times. Notre Dame comes into this game averaging 79.1 ppg and Louisville is scoring 70.2 ppg. The Fighting Irish have score 85+ in two of their last 3 games and the Cardinals are coming off an 81-point effort at Florida State. While Louisville has held each of their last 3 opponents under 60 points, the OVER is 11-2 in their last 13 after allowing 60 points or less in 3 straight games. OVER is also 10-1 in Notre Dame's last 11 against a team with a winning SU record and 10-1 in the Cardinals last 11 against a team with a winning SU record. Roll the OVER 136!
|
03-03-15 |
Iowa v. Indiana OVER 144.5 |
|
77-63 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
40-STAR NCAAB *TOTAL SMASH* The books missed the mark on this one. Indiana comes in averaging an impressive 82.9 ppg at home and Iowa is averaging 76.0 ppg during their current 4-game winning streak. Last time these two teams played, they combined for 179 points and while I don't expect to see that kind of scoring, I do think they eclipse 150 points without much problem. OVER is 11-1 in Iowa's last 12 games after playing 5 straight as a favorite and 8-0 in their last 8 road games after playing a road game where both teams scored 75+ points. Over is also 11-4 in their Hoosiers last 15 home games and 6-0 in their last 6 after playing 2 straight as a favorite. Roll the OVER 144.5!
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03-01-15 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 189.5 |
|
74-94 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
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40-STAR NBA *TOTAL KNOCKOUT* The books have set the mark too high in this one. The Pacers are one of the league's best defensive teams, especially when playing at home. That's not a good sign for the 76ers, who are one of the worst offensive teams. Philadelphia has eclipsed 98 points just once in their last 8 games and come in having scored less than 90 in each of their last two. UNDER is 31-19 in the Pacers last 50 games off a home win and 13-4 in the 76ers last 17 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more points. Roll the UNDER 189.5!
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02-27-15 |
New York Knicks v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 194 |
Top |
121-115 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
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50-STAR NBA *PERSONAL FAVORITE* TOP PLAY The books have set the mark too high in this one. These two teams combined for just 178 points at New York in their most recent meeting on Jan. 2 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar low-scoring game here. The Knicks have scored 97 points or less in each of their last 10 games and are averaging just 89.3 ppg during this stretch. UNDER is 16-5 in the Knicks last 21 against a team with a losing record and 11-2 in the Pistons last 13 after allowing 100+ in their last game. Roll the UNDER 194!
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02-26-15 |
Rutgers v. Purdue UNDER 123.5 |
Top |
85-92 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
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50-STAR BIG 10 *TOTAL OF THE MONTH* These two teams met just a couple of weeks ago (Feb. 12) at Rutgers and combined for just 112 points with a total of 124.5. The books have simply not adjusted enough here. The fact that these two teams recently played only adds more value to the under, as they will be more familiar with what the other team is looking to do offensively. UNDER is 8-2 in Purdue's 10 home games with a total listed and a perfect 6-0 in Rutgers last 6 road games after scoring 65 points or less in 2 straight games. UNDER is also 35-10 (78%) since 1997 in games where you have a total of 129.5 or less with the home team off an upset conference win against an opponent off a conference loss of 20 or more points. Roll the UNDER 123.5!
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02-25-15 |
Charlotte Hornets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 188.5 |
|
98-86 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
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40-STAR NBA *TOTAL DOMINATOR* The Bulls will have to rely even more on their defense right now with the unfortunate news that Derrick Rose will have to undergo another knee surgery. On top of that, their offense figures to struggle without Rose on the floor to bail them out of possessions. Chicago just played at home against the Bucks in a game that saw a combined 158 points and I'm expecting a similar type of game against a Hornets team that scored 81 or fewer points in 3 of their last 5 and rely heavily on their defense to win games. UNDER is 11-2 in the Bulls last 13 off 2 or more consecutive home wins and 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a contest with a combined score of 175 or less. UNDER is also 12-2 in the Hornets last 14 road games in the month of February. Roll the UNDER 188.5!
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02-25-15 |
Washington Wizards v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 203 |
|
77-97 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 11 m |
Show
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40-STAR NBA *TOTAL ANNIHILATOR* We are seeing an inflated total here due the Timberwolves having scored and allowed 100+ points in 4 of their last 5, but the thing you have to keep in mind is that those 4 games came against some of the top scoring teams in the league. The addition of Garnett has brought a new attitude to the Timberwolves and I look for that to carry over to a renewed intensity defensively. The Wizards have been a funk offensively. John Wall isn't shooting well at all and they are without Bradley Beal. The Wizards have scored 96 or less in 4 of their last 5 and will be looking to slow down the pace in this one with it being their 4th game in 6 days. UNDER is 12-3 in the Wizards last 15 after a combine scored of 205 or more and 10-2 in the Timberwolves last 12 after a road games where both teams scored 100+ points. Roll the UNDER 203!
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02-25-15 |
VCU v. Richmond OVER 128 |
|
63-67 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
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40-STAR NCAAB *OVER/UNDER TOTAL SMASH* The books have set the mark on the total too low, as my numbers have this one finishing closer to 135-140 points. Richmond is averaging 68.1 ppg at home, while VCU is scoring 70.1 ppg on the road. The average combined score in the Spiders last 5 games is 131.2 and 142.0 in the Rams last 5. We are simply seeing value here due to Richmond coming off a low-scoring game against George Washington (56-48). The OVER is a perfect 6-0 in the Spiders last 6 games after a contest where both teams scored 65 or fewer points. Roll the OVER 128!
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02-22-15 |
Washington Wizards v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 195.5 |
Top |
89-106 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
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50-STAR NBA *PERSONAL FAVORITE* TOP PLAY I'm expecting a defensive showdown in Detroit today between the Wizards and Pistons. UNDER is 12-2 in Washington's last 14 games in the 2nd half against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) and 12-3 in the Wizards last 15 games after a combined score of 205 or more points in their last contest. Roll the UNDER 195.5!
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02-19-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 212 |
|
89-104 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
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40-STAR NBA OVER/UNDER *TOTAL ANNIHILATOR* The books have set the total too high for this huge Western Conference showdown. Both of these teams are looking to come out strong after the All-Star break and we can expect max defensive effort here with both teams well rested. On the flip side of this, I look for both offenses to come out flat after the long break, which should have this one finishing well below the mark. UNDER is 16-6 in Thunder's last 22 home games when listed as a favorite of 6-points or less and 17-5 in the Mav's last 22 road games against good rebounding teams (3+ rebounds/game). Roll the UNDER 212!
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02-05-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 209 |
Top |
101-78 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
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50-STAR NBA OVER/UNDER *TOTAL OF THE MONTH* I think we are getting an inflated total here due to both of these teams coming off high-scoring games against the league's best offensive team in Golden State. These two teams have finished UNDER the total in each of their last 5 meetings, plus UNDER is 23-11 in Kings last 34 at home when playing with double-revenge and 16-5 in the Mavs last 21 road games against teams who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ boards per game. Roll the UNDER 209!
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02-02-15 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 206 |
Top |
94-100 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
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10* Timberwolves/Mavericks NBA Top Play BET: OVER 206 The Mavericks offense has struggled to find their rhythm since acquiring Rondo in a trade, but he's not expected to play tonight. Minnesota plays no defense and I look for Dallas to put up a big number offensively. The key here is that the Timberwolves should be able to keep it close enough to push this over the mark. OVER is 21-9-1 in the Timberwolves last 31 games when their opponent comes in having scored 100 or more in their last game and 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Roll the OVER 206!
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02-01-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
24-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
75 h 59 m |
Show
|
10* Seahawks/Patriots NFL Top Play BET: UNDER 47.5 I think this game could go either way and there's really no value betting the spread, which is why I turned my full attention to the total. I think there is a ton of value on the UNDER, as we have two of the best defenses in the league that are going to make life miserable for the opposing offenses. The Seahawks strength offensively is without question their running game, while the strength of the Patriots stop unit is their defense. Seattle's league-best pass defense, also matches up extremely well with New England's 9th ranked passing attack. I'm expecting a lot of empty possessions with both teams having to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns when they do make it into the redzone. Roll the UNDER 47.5!
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02-01-15 |
Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 187 |
Top |
83-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
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10* Heat/Celtics NBA Top Play BET: UNDER 187 Value here is with the total. UNDER is 28-7 (80%) since 1996 in games where you have a total set between 180 to 189.5 points that features an average offensive team (92-98 ppg) against a horrible defensive team (102+ ppg) after scoring 85 or less. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's last 18 road games when listed as the underdog and 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 off back-to-back losses. Roll the UNDER 187!
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01-31-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
105-85 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
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10* Clippers/Spurs NBA Top Play BET: UNDER 202.5 Value here is on the total. UNDER is 39-14 (74%) in all games with a total of 200 to 209.5 where you have a team that's won 60% to 75% of their games that are playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. Roll the UNDER 202.5!
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01-30-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Utah Jazz OVER 205 |
Top |
100-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
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10* Warriors/Jazz NBA Top Play BET: OVER 205 I'm expecting a shootout tonight in Utah between the Warriors and Jazz. OVER is 11-2 in the Warriors last 13 road games after a game with 30 or more assists, 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Friday. These two teams combined for 221 points at Utah back on Jan. 13. Roll the OVER 205!
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01-27-15 |
Chicago Bulls v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 212 |
Top |
113-111 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
10* Bulls/Warriors NBA Top Play BET: UNDER 212 Great system backing a play on this one finishing below the mark. UNDER is 104-55 (65%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points where you have a top level team (75% or better) that has covered 3 of their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Roll the UNDER 212!
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01-26-15 |
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
98-102 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 29 m |
Show
|
10* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Top Play BET: UNDER 215.5 With both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, I look for this one to finish well below the mark of 215.5. Neither team is going to be playing at their normal pace and the Nuggets have not been good offensively in their last 2 road games against quality teams, scoring just 79 at Golden State and 89 at Dallas. Clippers are only giving up 98.3 ppg at home. UNDER is 12-3 in Los Angeles' last 15 home games after a combined score of 205 points and 5-1-1 in Nuggets' last 7 road games against teams that have won more than 60% of their home games. Take the Under!
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01-26-15 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 188 |
Top |
74-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
10* 76ers/Pelicans NBA Top Play BET: UNDER 188 The Pelicans aren't going to be overlooking the 76ers in this one, as they got embarrassed at Philadelphia 81-96 back on Jan. 16. With New Orleans focused, I look for this one to finish well below the mark. 76ers have gone OVER the total just once in their last 12 games and have failed to surpass 90 points in 5 of their last 7. UNDER is 15-4 in Philadelphia's last 19 off a loss by 15+, 9-0 after allowing 60 or more in the first half and 16-7 this season when listed as a road underdog. Take the Under!
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01-25-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Golden State Warriors OVER 214 |
Top |
111-114 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
|
10* Celtics/Warriors NBA Top Play BET: OVER 214 Great long-term system in play. OVER is 117-65 (64%) since 1996 in games where you have a team off two road wins by 5 points or less. OVER is also 13-2 in Celtics last 15 after 3 or more consecutive unders and 8-0 in the Warriors last 8 after covering at least 8 of their last 10 games. Take the over!
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01-25-15 |
Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
106-99 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
10* Pacers/Magic NBA Top Play BET: UNDER 208.5 Each of the last 20 meetings in this series have finished with a combined score of less than the total posted here. Also a strong system in play. UNDER is 41-16 (72%) when you have a team off 4 or more straight loss against an opponent off 5 or more straight losses. Take the under!
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01-23-15 |
Orlando Magic v. New York Knicks UNDER 206 |
Top |
106-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
10* Magic/Knicks NBA Top Play
BET: UNDER 206
This is way too many points for these two teams. The Knicks play at a snails pace and the Magic aren't exactly flying up and down the floor. These two teams only combined for 192 points in New York in their previous meeting this season. UNDER is 8-3 in the Knicks last 11 overall and 13-5 in the Magics last 18 road games against bad teams that have won less than 40% of their home games. Take the UNDER!
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01-20-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 203.5 |
Top |
109-99 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 0 m |
Show
|
10* Spurs/Nuggets NBA Top Play BET: UNDER 203.5 UNDER is 13-3 in Spurs last 16 road games when they come having covered the spread in 3 or more straight games, 14-5 in Denver's last 19 games against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game, 5-1 in San Antonio's last 6 road games and 13-3-1 in Nuggets last 17 after allowing 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 49-24 (67%) over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team that allowed 80 or less (Spurs) against an opponent that has allowed 105 or more in each of their last 2. Take the UNDER!
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01-20-15 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat UNDER 199 |
Top |
94-86 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
10* Thunder/Heat NBA Top Play BET: UNDER 199 UNDER is 13-3 in the Thunder's last 16 road games when listed as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, 23-12 in the Heat's last 35 when listed as an underdog and 13-3 in Miami's last 16 non-conference games. UNDER is also 74-39 (66%) over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a win by 10 or more points (Heat) against an opponent off a combined score of 215 or more in each of their last two games. Take the UNDER!
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01-17-15 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 200.5 |
Top |
107-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
|
10* Hawks/Bulls NBA Top Play BET: UNDER 200.5 UNDER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Chicago and there's also a strong system back this one to finish below the mark. UNDER is 28-7 (80%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that has beat the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games.
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