|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-04-22||North Carolina v. Kansas -4||Top||69-72||Loss||-115||35 h 57 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - N Carolina/Kansas CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Vegas Insider (Kansas -4)
I'll gladly take my chances laying the 4-points with KU against UNC. It was a bad play by me to back Villanova on Saturday. I won't make the same mistake on Monday. As great as UNC has been down the stretch, the Jayhawks are the more talented team and in the much better spot coming out of Saturday's Final Four matchups.
I get it's the title game, but I just feel it's going to be really hard for Duke to bounce back after that emotional win over Duke. That was one of the more hyped games I can remember and it was a dogfight from start to finish.
I also don't think enough is being made of Bacot's injury late in that win over the Blue Devils. He's going to play, but he's likely not going to be 100%. He's been a difference maker for the Tar Heels. I just think they really need him to be great to keep this close enough to cover. Give me the Jayhawks -4!
|04-02-22||North Carolina v. Duke -4||Top||81-77||Loss||-110||25 h 3 m||Show|
50* (CBB) N Carolina/Duke MAX UNIT Top Play (Duke -4)
I'll gladly take my chances with Duke laying the 4 against UNC. I really like this Tar Heels team, but I think they are going to have a tough time just making a game of it. I know UNC went on the road and beat Duke 94-81 in Coach K's final home game.
That to me was more a product of the Blue Devils not handling the emotions that came with that game. I think it was of a blessing in disguise, as I think it prepared this team for what was to come in this NCAA Tournament.
I think we are going to see something more along the lines of when these teams first played. Duke won that game 87-67 in Chapel Hill and it was even worse than the finale score indicates. The Blue Devils are simply the better team and I feel this is a discount with all the love UNC is getting. Duke was -11 in that home finale, which means they would have been around a 7.5-8 point favorite on a neutral. Give me the Blue Devils -4!
|04-02-22||Villanova +4.5 v. Kansas||65-81||Loss||-110||23 h 31 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Villanova/Kansas VEGAS INSIDER (Villanova +4.5)
I'll take my chances with Villanova catching the 4.5 against Kansas. Not many are giving the Wildcats a shot here after losing Justin Moore to an Achilles injury in their Elite 8 win over Houston. No question it's a big loss, but it has clearly been baked into this number. Villanova beat UConn by double-digits in the one game Moore missed during the regular season.
They still got Gillespie running the show and you know they are going to slow this game down as much as they can. I think it's going to be really frustrating for Kansas on the offensive side of the ball, especially if they aren't hitting from deep early. I think it's going to lead to the Jayhawks pressing a bit and ultimately resulting in this game coming right down to the wire. Give me Villanova +4.5!
|03-27-22||St. Peter's v. North Carolina -8||49-69||Win||100||8 h 18 m||Show|
40* (CBB) St. Peter's/UNC ATS NO-BRAINER (UNC -8)
I'll take my chances with N Carolina as a 8-point favorite. It's been a remarkable run for the Peacocks. They have made it further than any No. 15 seed before them. I just think the magic stops here. It's hard for these Cinderella stories to keep it going. We kind of saw that yesterday, with Duke and Villanova really dominating from start to finish.
Some might call UNC a bit of a Cinderella, but this is a team that was extremely undervalued coming into the tournament. Largely due to the lack of respect the entire ACC conference was getting. Tar Heels have been playing great basketball for two months now.
One big difference between UNC and St. Peter's first 3 opponents is the Tar Heels like to really push the tempo and get their offense going in transition. It's exactly what you need to do against the Peacocks, given how good they are in the half court defense. Those other teams playing at St Peter's tempo really is what allowed them to pull off the upset. UNC is just going to be too much for them to handle on both sides of the ball. Give me the Tar Heels -8!
|03-27-22||Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5||Top||50-76||Win||100||6 h 41 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Miami/Kansas Elite 8 VEGAS INSIDER (Kansas -5.5)
I'll lay the 5.5 with the Jayhawks against the Hurricanes. I like this Miami team, but I just feel this is a horrible matchup for the Hurricane. Miami's defense has played great in their first 3 games of the tournament against USC, Auburn and Iowa St. Those offenses aren't close to what they will see from Kansas. You also can't ignore this is a Hurricanes defense that is ranked No. 114 in defensive efficiency.
I also think people sleep on how good this Jayhawks defense is. They are ranked No. 23 in adjusted defense. I also think KU is going to really exploit the Hurricanes on the offensive glass and at the 3-point line. If the Jayhawks can take care of the ball like they have the last two games (7 turnovers vs Creighton & only 10 vs Providence), this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Kansas -5.5!
|03-26-22||Houston -2.5 v. Villanova||Top||44-50||Loss||-110||8 h 53 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Elite 8 (Sat) MAX UNIT Top Play (Houston -2.5)
I'll take my chances with Houston as a slim 2.5-point favorite against Villanova for the right to go the Final Four. No one seems to want to take a stand with the Cougars. No one has really been talking about them being the team that could win it all and I'm not sure why.
Houston is now 32-5 with 3 of those 5 losses by 2 or fewer points. They were absolutely dominant in the AAC Tournament, beating Cincinnati by 13, Tulane by 20 and Memphis by 18. In the NCAA Tournament they crushed UAB by 14, beat Illinois by 15 and Arizona by 12.
It wouldn't surprise me if they made it 7 straight wins by double-digits. I just don't love this Villanova team like some others. I think they have really benefited from a favorable schedule in the NCAA Tournament. They have had to face Delaware, Ohio St and Michigan. Give me the Cougars -2.5!
|03-25-22||Iowa State +2.5 v. Miami-FL||56-70||Loss||-110||48 h 46 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Sweet 16 (FrI) ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa St +2.5)
I'll take my chances with Iowa State as a 2.5-point dog against the Hurricanes. I've been wrong on the Cyclones. I didn't see them winning either of their first two games against LSU or Wisconsin. I'm not going to make that same mistake with them again against Miami.
ISU is now 15-0 outside of Big 12 play with wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, Iowa, LSU and Wisconsin. I think that speaks volumes to just how much teams aren't ready for the pressure they bring on the defensive side of the ball. I expect them to give the Hurricanes a lot of problems and find a way to get just enough offense to advance to the Elite 8. Give me the Cyclones +2.5!
|03-25-22||Providence +7.5 v. Kansas||61-66||Win||100||45 h 59 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Sweet 16 (Fri) NO-BRAINER (Providence +7.5)
I'll take my chances with the Friars as a 7.5-point dog against Kansas in Friday's Sweet 16 matchup. The Jayhawks are a very good and talented team, but they are not invincible. No team is in this tournament, which is why a lot of the top seeds have fallen. We just saw two No. 1 seeds lose last night.
Providence has been greatly undervalued all year. This team might not win pretty, but they win and they are not afraid of the moment in a close game down the stretch. I think they got the defense to give the Jayhawks problems and enough offense to win this game outright. Give me the Friars +7.5!
|03-24-22||Texas Tech -1 v. Duke||Top||73-78||Loss||-105||24 h 6 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sweet 16 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech -1)
I will gladly lay the 1-point with Texas Tech in their Sweet 16 showdown with Duke. I really wonder if we didn't know this was Coach K's last season, if people would view the Blue Devils a little differently.
They just haven't been very sharp down the stretch. You have to wonder if all the pressure of feeling like they have to win it all for Coach K isn't getting to them. They really should have lost in the Round of 32 to a pretty average Michigan State team.
I just think Texas Tech is the vastly better team. Duke hasn't seen a team that plays defense defense like the Red Raiders. No one in the ACC finished in the Top 40 in defensive efficiency. Even Michigan State, who they had some problems with only ranks No. 67 in that department. Texas Tech is No. 1. Give me the Red Raiders -1!
|03-24-22||Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga||74-68||Win||100||21 h 14 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Sweet 16 (Thurs) VEGAS INSIDER (Arkansas +9.5)
I'll take my chances with the Razorbacks as a 9.5-point dog against Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. I just think this is way too many points for the Bulldogs to be laying. It feels like the narrative after nearly getting knocked out in their last game by Memphis is that was the close-call the Bulldogs needed. Now they are going to just roll to the title.
I'm not buying it. This is a very good Gonzaga team, but they are far from invincible. Arkansas is also no pushover. While the rest of the SEC has flamed out of the NCAA Tournament, you could argue no team was playing better than the Razorbacks in that conference the last couple months of the season.
I think you need to be a strong defensive team to compete with Gonzaga. Arkansas is definitely that. Razorbacks finished No. 14 in the country in defensive efficiency. If they can get a guy or two to get hot from the outside, they not only can keep it close, but win this game outright. Give me Arkansas +9.5!
|03-20-22||TCU +10 v. Arizona||80-85||Win||100||12 h 9 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER (TCU +10)
I'll take my chances with TCU as a double-digit dog against Arizona. Much like with Memphis last night in the final game against No. 1 Gonzaga, I think we got a dog that is much better than the perception and a overvalued No. 1 seed.
You just can't overreact to some of these Big 12 records because of just how good this conference was top to bottom. West Virginia finished last at 4-14 and are still the No. 66 ranked team at KenPom. In TCU's last 7 games they have wins over Texas Tech, Kansas, Texas and Thursday's blowout win over Seton Hall.
All the pressure is on the Wildcats, as no one is giving the Horned Frogs a shot here. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they did. Give me TCU +10!
|03-20-22||Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn||79-61||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Miami +7.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Hurricanes as a 7.5-point underdog against Auburn. I think the ACC has come into this tournament extremely undervalued. UNC is already in the Sweet 16 after upsetting No. 1 seed Baylor and 3 more have a shot to join them today. That includes No. 11 seed Notre Dame, who won a 2OT play-in game on Wednesday against Indiana and then two days later beat No. 6 Alabama by 14 points.
Miami was right there with Duke, UNC and Notre Dame as the top dog in the ACC. The Hurricanes have really done nothing but impress since Dec. 1. They finished 14-6 in ACC play with 5 of the 6 losses coming by 4-points or fewer. They also lost by just 4-points to Duke in the ACC Tournament.
Auburn is a good team, but far from invincible. They started out really slow in their win over Jacksonville State and were certainly not their sharpest down the stretch. In their 4 games leading up to the tournament, they lost at Tennessee, needed OT to win at Miss St, only beat S Carolina by 11 at home and then lost to Texas A&M in their first game of the SEC Tournament. Would not surprise me at all if Miami won. Give me the Hurricanes +7.5!
|03-20-22||Iowa State v. Wisconsin -4.5||Top||54-49||Loss||-110||9 h 56 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Round of 32 PLAY OF THE TOURNAMENT (Wisconsin -4.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Badgers at -4.5 against Iowa State. I know Wisconsin hasn't exactly impressed of late, losing their regular-season finale to Nebraska to prevent an outright Big Ten title, falling to Michigan St in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament and then barely getting by Colgate in the 1st round.
I think it has people forgetting what this team has accomplished this year. As long as Johnny Davis is healthy, this team can beat anyone left in the field. Davis did get hurt against Nebraska, but he had 25 points in the game against Colgate.
I also think Wisconsin matches up extremely well with ISU. The Cyclones are a team that relies on their defense, because there's not a lot of good options offensively. The best thing their defense does is force turnovers. They ranked No. 4 in the country in defensive TO%. They were just No. 217 in defensive 2-PT%, so when teams didn't turn it over they often got easy baskets. No team was better than the Badgers at protecting the ball. They are No. 1 in offensive TO%.
Unless the Cyclones are hitting shots, and hitting a lot of them, I think it will be extremely difficult for them to keep this within single-digits. Give me Wisconsin -4.5!
|03-19-22||Memphis +10.5 v. Gonzaga||78-82||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Late Night ATS MASSACRE (Memphis +10.5)
I'll take my chances with the Tigers as a 10.5-point dog against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs should not be laying double-digits in this one. Memphis was a different team in the second half of the season. They ranked in the Top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency after that slow start. The one thing that has really hurt Memphis is turnovers and that doesn't figure to be a huge problem in this game. One thing that Gonzaga's defense doesn't do well is force turnovers. The Bulldogs ranked just No. 281 in defensive turnover %. I think that's going to allow the Tigers to make a game of it and possibly even pull off the upset. Give me Memphis +10.5!
|03-19-22||Michigan v. Tennessee -6||Top||76-68||Loss||-110||9 h 36 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn MAX UNIT Top Play (Tennessee -6)
I got no problem laying 6-points with the Vols against the Wolverines. I really think Tennessee has the goods to win the whole thing and I just don't see them having any problem beating up on an overrated Michigan team. The Wolverines are a good offensive team, but they are going up against maybe the best defense in the country. Tennessee gives you know easy looks and have the guys down low to really negate Michigan's go-to guy in Hunter Dickinson.
On the flip side, Michigan doesn't really have the good to slow down this Vols offense. Wolverines are one of the worst teams in the country in forcing turnovers (No. 336) and they give up way to many easy shots (No. 206 in 2-Pt% defense). Give me the Vols -6!
|03-18-22||Iowa State v. LSU -4||59-54||Loss||-110||10 h 51 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn VEGAS INSIDER (LSU -4)
I'll take my chances with LSU as a 4-point favorite against Iowa State. The Cyclones caught everyone's attention with their perfect 12-0 start in non-conference play, which included wins over Xavier, Creighton, Iowa and Memphis.
While they were far from a pushover in the Big 12, they did open up conference play just 3-9 before a 4-game winning streak saved their season, though they did finish just 7-11 in the Big 12 (5 of the 7 wins by 4 or fewer points).
I know LSU has lost their coach and didn't live up to their own hype in the SEC this year, but I still think they are the far more talented team. The Tigers have a superstar in Tari Eason and a team that finished the season ranked No. 5 in the country defensive efficiency. I really think having a go-to-guy against ISU is big and having a good defense is also big with how much ISU struggles to score the basketball. Give me the Tigers -4!
|03-18-22||Virginia Tech +1.5 v. Texas||73-81||Loss||-110||7 h 45 m||Show|
40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn ATS NO-BRAINER (Va Tech +1.5)
I'll take my chances with the Hokies as a 1.5-point dog against the Longhorns on Friday. Few teams come into the tournament riding a bigger wave of momentum than Virginia Tech. The Hokies were arguably on the outside looking in to the field of 68 when the ACC Tournament started last week.
They took any doubt out of the equation by winning 4 games in 4 days with the last 3 coming against teams in the field this weekend in Notre Dame (87-80), UNC (72-59) and Duke (82-67).
Keep in mind the strong play goes back further than that tournament, as they won 9 of their last 11 in the regular-season.
As for Texas, I've never really thought they were as good as what people thought and they have zero momentum coming in after losing their final two regular-season games and then falling to TCU in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament. Give me Virginia Tech +1.5!
|03-18-22||Notre Dame v. Alabama -3.5||78-64||Loss||-115||7 h 30 m||Show|
40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn ATS SLAUGHTER (Alabama -3.5)
I'll take my chances with Alabama as a 3.5-point favorite against Notre Dame. I would have liked the Crimson Tide at this price if this was a set first round matchup when the brackets came out on Sunday.
So it's easy to like them given that Notre Dame had to play Wednesday in a play-in game against Rutgers. A game that had to take every ounce of energy the Irish had, as it went to double-overtime. That's a lot of extra minutes for a team that really only uses a 6-man rotation. Add in the long flight to San Diego right after that game and I just don't think the Irish will have near enough to be competitive in this one. Give me the Crimson Tide -3.5!
|03-18-22||Yale v. Purdue -16.5||Top||56-78||Win||100||4 h 3 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn MAX UNIT Top Play (Purdue -16.5)
I got no problem laying the big number with the Boilermakers on Friday. Purdue might not have won the Big Ten regular-season or Tournament title, but I still think they are the most talented team out of that conference. They got a difference maker at point guard in Jaden Ivey and two imposing big men in Zach Edey and Trevion Williams.
Yale simply doesn't have the size to compete with the Boilermakers. The Bulldogs have just two guys taller than 6-5 that get minutes and that's 6-7 Isaiah Kelly and 6-8 E.J. Purdue is going to have a field day inside, which is going to lead to wide open looks from deep. Yale lost by 36 to Seton Hall, by 22 to Auburn and by 17 to St Mary's in non-conference. Give me Purdue -16.5!
|03-17-22||San Francisco +2 v. Murray State||87-92||Loss||-110||22 h 26 m||Show|
40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn Late Night SLAUGHTER (San Francisco +2)
I'll take my chances with San Francisco catching 2-points against Murray State. Everyone is picking the Racers in this matchup and while I think Murray State is a good team, I'm not as high on them.
Going undefeated in conference play and backing it up with a conference tournament title is impressive, but the Ohio Valley is also a really bad conference other than Belmont. Of the 9 other teams in the league, 7 rank 240th or worse in KenPoms rankings.
Yes they beat Memphis in non-conference, but the Tigers weren't a very good team early in the year. The only Power 5 team they played was Auburn and they lost that game by 13 and it wasn't that close. They railed by 21 with 2.5 mins to play before going on a meaningless run late to make it look respectable.
I think San Francisco has the better resume and are much more battle-tested going into the NCAA Tournament. Give me the Dons +2!
|03-17-22||Vermont v. Arkansas -5||71-75||Loss||-110||22 h 7 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn VEGAS INSIDER (Arkansas -5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Arkansas as a mere 5-point favorite against Vermont. The Catamounts are a sexy upset pick and I'm just not buying it. Vermont was the best team in a bad America East Conference. They went 17-1 in league play with the next best team going 11-7.
In their two non-conference games against Power 5 teams they lost by 10 at Providence and by 9 at Maryland. I don't think either of those teams are close to anywhere as good as this Razorbacks team. Their 64-82 loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament looks bad, but it doesn't cover up the fact that they went 15-3 over their final 18 games with the two other losses by 4 on the road to Tennessee and by 1 at Alabama. Give me the Razorbacks -5!
|03-17-22||Marquette v. North Carolina -3.5||Top||63-95||Win||100||17 h 3 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Thursday 1st Rd MAX UNIT Top Play (North Carolina -3.5)
I got zero problem laying the 3.5 with the Tar Heels against Marquette. I really think people are sleeping on this North Carolina team. After starting the year just 12-6 with a 4-3 mark in ACC play, they closed out the season winning 12 of their final 15.
One of the things that I think is keeping them under the radar is the fact their 59-72 loss in the ACC Tournament to Va Tech. What people ignore is just how good the Hokies have been playing. They followed up that win with a 82-67 victory against Duke in the title game.
Marquette has some nice wins and were able to hang with some good teams early on non-conference play. The problem is they weren't able to sustain it and actually played much worse down the stretch. Golden Eagles went just 4-6 over their final 10, including an ugly 63-74 loss to Creighton in their only game of the Big East Tournament. Give me North Carolina -3.5!
|03-17-22||Michigan v. Colorado State +1.5||75-63||Loss||-105||13 h 44 m||Show|
40* (CBB) NCAA Tourn Early Bird MASSACRE (Colorado St +1.5)
I'll take my chances with Colorado State as a small dog against Michigan early on Thursday. I'm just not a big believer in this Wolverines team. They never played up to their potential and losing their head coach Juwan Howard to a suspension to close out the regular-season did them no favors. They never won more than 3 games in a row all season.
Colorado State finished 2nd in a very good Mountain West Conference that sent 4 teams to the tournament. They only lost 5 times all season and closed out the year winning 9 of their last 11. They also showed they can hang in non-conference, beating the likes of Creighton by 14 and St. Mary's by 16. Wouldn't shock me at all if they won by double-digits here. Give me the Rams +1.5!
|03-16-22||Iona v. Florida -6.5||74-79||Loss||-110||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR (Florida -6.5)
I'll take my chances with Florida as a 6.5-point favorite over Iona in the NIT. The public really likes to get behind this Gaels team, largely because of Rick Pitino being their head coach. He certainly did some good things with Iona this year, but I think the Gaels will have a tough time showing up in this game.
The NIT is not where Iona expected to be playing this week. The Gaels had to feel like they were a lock to make the NCAA Tournament after cruising the MAAC regular-season title, finishing a full 3-games ahead of runner-up St. Peter's. Those NCAA Tournament hopes came crashing to the ground, as Iona was stunned in their first game of the MAAC Tournament by Rider, who went off as a double-digit dog. Florida might not have been up to their standards this year, but they are without question the more talented and athletic team in this matchup. Give me the Gators -6.5!
|03-16-22||Northern Iowa +4.5 v. St. Louis||80-68||Win||100||21 h 14 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (UNI +4.5)
I'll take my chances with Northern Iowa as a 4.5-point dog in Wednesday's NIT matchup with St. Louis. The Panthers had quite the turnaround this year. UNI started the season just 4-7 before flipping a switch and going 14-4 in MVC play, winning the outright regular-season title over a very good Loyola-Chicago team.
The Panthers did get routed by the Ramblers in the rubber match during the MVC Tournament, but that shouldn't keep them from being motivated to put on a good showing in the NIT. No disrespect to St Louis, but I think this line should be closer to a pick'em, making this a big time value play for me. Give me the Panthers +4.5!
|03-15-22||Indiana -3.5 v. Wyoming||Top||66-58||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tourn Play-In ATS NO-BRAINER (Indiana -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Indiana as a mere 3.5-point favorite against Wyoming in Tuesday's Play-In game. The Hoosiers caught fire in the Big Ten Tournament, upsetting Michigan and Illinois before a hard-fought loss to one of the hottest teams in the conference in Iowa, who went on to beat Purdue for the title the next day.
Some might say that Wyoming doesn't belong in the field of 68. I think the do, but I also think they are outmatched and outclassed in this one. The Cowboys were very competitive in a strong Mountain West Conference this year, but their only Power 5 win in non-conference play came in OT against a sub-par Washington team. They also lost to a very mediocre Stanford team and got annihilated by 94-65 by Arizona.
Look for Indiana's defense and Wyoming's inability to force turnovers (ranked #316 in defensive TO%) to be the difference. Cowboys ranked just 218 in 3-PT% and face a Hoosiers defense that was No. 7 in the country in 2-PT% defense. Give me Indiana -3.5!
|03-15-22||Missouri State +6.5 v. Oklahoma||72-89||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NIT Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Missouri State +6)
I'll take my chances with Missouri State as a 6-point dog against Oklahoma in Tuesday's NIT action. The Sooners may be saying that they are going to prove the committee wrong for not including them in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not buying it.
I think this Oklahoma team was completely devastated not getting into the Big Dance and will have a really tough time getting up for this game. It doesn't help they are playing a pesky Missouri State team that closed out the regular-season going 18-5 and were an OT loss to Drake in the MVC semis from making the title game. Give me the Bears +6!
|03-13-22||Texas A&M +6.5 v. Tennessee||50-65||Loss||-110||3 h 55 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Texas A&M -6.5)
I'll take my chances with Texas A&M as a 6.5-point dog against Tennessee in the SEC Title game. The Aggies have caught fire at the right time. Much like we saw in the ACC with Virginia Tech catching fire and riding that momentum to an ACC Tournament title.
Aggies started it off with a OT win against Florida on Thursday, got by Auburn on Friday and then rolled Arkansas on Saturday. Add that to their 5-1 finish in SEC play, they are now 8-1 in their last 9.
The work is not done, as they must-win this game to get in the NCAA Tournament, which I think clearly makes them the more motivated team. Tennessee is in no matter what and likely no worse than #3 seed, even if they lose. You also have the Vols coming off a huge win over Kentucky, which I think could set them up to come out a bit flat. Give me Texas A&M +6.5!
|03-12-22||Kentucky -2 v. Tennessee||Top||62-69||Loss||-110||5 h 24 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kentucky -2)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Wildcats as a 2-point favorite against the Vols in Saturday's SEC Semifinal matchup. I think Kentucky is right there with Gonzaga and Arizona as one of the best teams in the country and will be highly motivated to get this win and lock up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Not only that, but the Wildcats will be out for revenge from a 63-76 loss at Tennessee back on Feb. 15. Big thing to keep in mind with that loss is just how good the Vols are at home. Tennessee went 16-0 at home this year. Even with their win over Miss St yesterday, they are just 8-7 on the road.
Kentucky beat the Vols 107-79 at home in the first meeting and while I don't think it will be that lopsided on a neutral site, I wouldn't be shocked if the Wildcats took complete control of this game early on. Give me Kentucky -2!
|03-11-22||Virginia Tech v. North Carolina -2||Top||72-59||Loss||-110||12 h 48 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Va Tech/N Carolina MAX UNIT Top Play (N Carolina -2)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Tar Heels as a slim 2-point favorite in Friday's Semifinal matchup against Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. UNC might be the best team in the country that people don't talk about. The Tar Heels got off to a pretty mediocre start, going just 12-6 overall and 4-3 in ACC, but have won 12 of their last 14 since and followed up that big upset of Duke in the regular-season finale with a 63-43 blowout win over Virginia yesterday.
The Hokies have also been surging down the stretch, winning 11 of their last 13, but a lot of that was the schedule just really getting easy for them in the 2nd half of ACC play. I just think they are outmatched and going to struggle to keep pace playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Give me the Tar Heels -2!
|03-11-22||Richmond v. VCU -3.5||75-64||Loss||-110||11 h 31 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (VCU -3.5)
I will gladly take my chances with VCU as a 3.5-point favorite against Richmond in Friday's Quarterfinal matchup in the A-10 Tournament. The Rams to me are a very underrated team. While they didn't have a signature non-conference win, they did lose by just 8 on a neutral court to Baylor and in OT on a neutral to UConn.
VCU closed out the season winning 11 of their last 13 games and should be motivated here after dropping their regular-season finale at St. Louis. The other big thing is rest, which the Rams have a big edge in. VCU had a bye yesterday, while Richmond had to play Rhode Island. The Spiders won that game 64-59, but had to use a ton of energy to rally from a 15-point 2nd half deficit. I don't think there's going to be enough gas in the tank to keep pace with VCU tonight. Give me the Rams -3.5!
|03-11-22||Creighton v. Providence -3||85-58||Loss||-110||9 h 33 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Providence -3)
I'll take my chances with Providence as a 3-point favorite against Creighton in Friday's Semifinal matchup in the Big East Tournament. This Friars team has simply not gotten the respect they deserve. Yes, they are ranked No. 11 in the country, but no one talks about this team as having a real shot of doing something in the Big Dance. Which is crazy for a team that has lost just 4 times all season and has non-conference wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Texas Tech.
I think it has kept Providence motivated and undervalued on the betting market. I just don't think 3-points is near enough here. The Friars rolled Creighton by 21 a couple weeks ago and I think that speaks to the matchup advantage that Providence has here. Great win for the Bluejays yesterday against Marquette, but not enough for me to think they got a real shot in this game. Give me Providence -3!
|03-10-22||Iowa State +8 v. Texas Tech||41-72||Loss||-110||12 h 50 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS MASSACRE (Iowa St +8)
I'll take my chances with Iowa State as a 8-point dog against Texas Tech on Thursday. I can't say I love the Cyclones to win this game, but that's not saying they can't. I just think 8 is way too much for a team as talented as the Cyclones.
Iowa State is a tricky team because of how much variability there is with their shooting. They make shots they can beat any team in the country and that's evident with all their quad 1 wins this year.
I also think the Cyclones 68-75 loss to Baylor in the finale was a big boost to this team, as they somehow managed to take multiple leads after trailing 29-4 with 7:53 on the clock in the 1st half. Give me Iowa State +8!
|03-10-22||Virginia Tech v. Notre Dame +1.5||Top||87-80||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Notre Dame +1.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Notre Dame as a 1.5-point dog against Va Tech. I don't understand why the Hokies are favored in this game. I get Va Tech closed out the season strong, winning 9 of their last 11, but they lost their finale at Clemson, who isn't very good and then needed a 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat Clemson 76-75 in OT in yesterday's first round action.
Keep in mind that Notre Dame had a bye on Wednesday, so they have a big edge here in rest as well. I just don't think the Hokies will have enough gas in the tank here, as they are not a deep team (only played 8 guys yesterday with 4 of the 8 playing 33+ minutes. Give me the Fighting Irish +1.5!
|03-10-22||TCU v. Texas -5.5||65-60||Loss||-108||3 h 51 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas -5.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Texas as a 5.5-point favorite against TCU in the Big 12 Tournament. The Longhorns should be extremely motivated after losing their last 2 games to close out the season. Not that they were bad losses, as they lost by just 7 at home to Baylor and in OT on the road at Kansas.
You have to go back to a Jan. 18 loss at home to K-State to find the last time Texas lost to a team not named Baylor, Kansas or Texas Tech. Longhorns won 73-50 at TCU in the first meeting between these teams. While they only won by 9 in the second meeting at home, they outscored the Horned Frogs by 19 in the final 13 minutes of that game and managed to win by 9 despite only shooting 1 of 14 on 3-pointers.
Another thing that stands out to me is they attempted 50 free throws in their two games vs TCU, while the Horned Frogs only attempted 23. They also were +12 in turnovers in those 2 games. Give me the Longhorns -5.5!
|03-09-22||Nebraska +4.5 v. Northwestern||Top||69-71||Win||100||18 h 24 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Nebraska +4.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Nebraska as a 4.5-point dog in Wednesday's first round action in the Big Ten Tournament. It's hard to explain what's transpired in Lincoln over the last couple weeks, but this team goes into the Big Ten Tournament thinking they got a chance.
Nebraska closed out the regular-season with a 74-73 win on the road against Wisconsin and did so without one of their best players in Bryce McGowens. That's after they upset Ohio State (78-70) and Penn State (93-70) in their previous 2 games.
Head coach Fred Hoiberg seems to have figured something out with this team and he sounded pretty optimistic that McGowens would suit up for this game. Even if he doesn't, I still like the Cornhuskers to carry over that late season momentum to Indianapolis. Give me Nebraska +4.5!
|03-09-22||Syracuse v. Florida State -1||96-57||Loss||-110||12 h 28 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER (Florida St -1)
I'll take my chances with the Seminoles as a slim 1-point home favorite against Syracuse in Thursday's second round action of the ACC Tournament. Florida State ended the regular-season with 3 straight wins, beating Virginia on the road 64-63, knocking off Notre Dame at home 74-70 and taking down NC State 89-76 in the finale.
In their last game against NC State, the Seminoles got back a huge piece to their team in sophomore guard Caleb Mills. He scored 19 points in just 18 minutes of play. Mills had list the last 5 and with him on the floor they are hands down the better team in this one.
While Florida State was surging down the stretch, Syracuse ended the season losing 4 in a row. They just don't look like the same team after losing junior big man Jesse Edwards. He missed the final 7 games and they went just 2-5, with one of those wins a 1-point OT win at home against Georgia Tech. The other win against a sub-par team in BC. Give me Florida State -1!
|03-06-22||Nebraska +12.5 v. Wisconsin||74-73||Win||100||5 h 46 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Nebraska +12.5)
I'll take my chances with Nebraska as a 12.5-point road dog against the Badgers. While it's way too late to matter, the Cornhuskers seem to have flipped a switch and really figured something out. It started with a near upset of Iowa at home. They then went on the road and destroyed Penn State 93-70 in the Nittany Lions home finale and followed that up with a 78-70 win on the road against Ohio State.
I don't know if they can keep it going and win this game outright on the road at Wisconsin, but I do think the spot sets up really nice for them. The big reason for that is the game just doesn't mean that much to the Badgers, who locked up the Big Ten regular-season title and No.1 seed in the Big Ten tournament with Tuesday's 70-67 home win over Purdue.
For Nebraska it's just another chance for them to test themselves and how far they have come by facing off against the best team (at least record wise) in the Big Ten. Give me the Cornhuskers +12.5!
|03-05-22||Mississippi State v. Texas A&M -2||Top||64-67||Win||100||20 h 24 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - SEC Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M -2)
I really love the price here with Texas A&M as a mere 2-point home favorite against Mississippi State. There's a few factors in play that I really like in this matchup. The biggest and most obvious is the home/away splits for these two teams. The Aggies are 12-4 at home this season, while the Bulldogs are a mere 3-10 away from home and just 1-8 in true road games (only win at Missouri by 2-points).
The other big thing that I like in this matchup is fading Mississippi State after a gut-wrenching 68-81 loss at home to Auburn on Wednesday. The Bulldogs who were down by as many as 19-points in the 1st half, rallied to take the lead and had a lead as by as 5 with less than 7 minutes to play. I just don't think Miss St will be emotionally ready for this one on the road.
Aggies are also a team surging down the stretch, as they come in having won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, covering the spread in all 4 wins, including a 87-71 outright win as a 10-point dog in their last game at Alabama. Give me Texas A&M -2!
|03-05-22||North Carolina +12 v. Duke||94-81||Win||100||18 h 37 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (N Carolina +12)
I will gladly take my chances with the Tar Heels as a 12-point road dog against the Blue Devils. There's plenty being made of this being Coach K's last game against rival UNC and final regular-season home game. With that said, it doesn't have quite the build up as the first meeting in Chapel Hill. Largely because of the Blue Devils dominating that game in a 87-67 win.
I just think that really makes UNC a dangerous team in the rematch, especially with Duke having already wrapped up the ACC regular-season title. I think it's one of those scenarios where the Blue Devils will almost be too jacked up to play well.
There's also the number that's important here. North Carolina could not play great and still keep this thing within 12-points. As ugly as that first loss was to Duke, the Tar Heels are still 10-2 over their last 12 games with a 4-game winning streak. Give me North Carolina +12!
|03-05-22||Oklahoma v. Kansas State -2||78-71||Loss||-115||16 h 57 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Kansas St -2)
I'll gladly take my chances with Kansas State as a mere 2-point home favorite against the Sooners on Saturday. I just think this is the perfect buy-low spot on the Wildcats, who come into this game having lost 4 straight after winning 4 of their previous 5. It could be a much different story for K State, as 3 of the 4 losses during this skid have come by a combined 9 points (3 of the 4 were also on the road).
Not only are the Wildcats going to be motivated to end their losing streak, they will want some revenge on the Sooners after a heartbreaking 69-71 loss in Norman earlier this season. It's also senior day for them with this being their last home game of the season.
Oklahoma is also a team I have no problem fading on the road. The Sooners are just 4-9 away from home this season and their only true road win since December is a win at West Virginia, who sits last in the Big 12 with a 3-14 conference mark. Give me Kansas State -2!
|03-05-22||Davidson v. Dayton -3.5||76-82||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Early Bird ATS MASSACRE (Dayton -3.5)
I'll take my chances with Dayton as a 3.5-point home favorite against Davidson. I know Davidson has the best record in the Atlantic 10, but this to me is just too good a price on the Flyers at home. Dayton is 12-4 on their home floor this year and most of those losses came early in the year. In fact, 3 of the 4 losses came in November. Their only loss at home in the last 3 months is a 52-53 setback against VCU.
The other big thing is the Wildcats could potentially be playing without one of their best players in Foster Loyer, who has missed the last 4 games. Seems unlikely he will be able to play after just sitting out their game on Wednesday. With that said, I still like Dayton to win by 4 or more if he does end up playing.
Flyers have played the last 2 on the road and that puts them in a really favorable spot. Dayton is 40-21 ATS at home after playing their previous game on the road. They are 15-4 ATS last 2 seasons after playing their previous game on the road and 6-0 ATS last 2 seasons after playing 2 road games in a row. Give me the Flyers -3.5!
|03-04-22||Richmond v. St Bonaventure -3.5||Top||65-72||Win||100||7 h 6 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (St. Bonaventure -3.5)
I will gladly take my chances with St. Bonaventure as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against Richmond on Friday. This is just too good a price to pass up on the Bonnies at home, where they are 12-2 SU this season. Especially in a spot where we should get a big time effort from St Bonaventure coming off an ugly 23-point loss at VCU earlier this week.
It was only the third time this season the Bonnies have lost a conference game by 10 or more points and in each of the previous two instances the Bonnies came back in their next game and not only won outright but covered the spread.
St. Bonaventure will also be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Richmond. Bonnies are 7-4 ATS last 3 seasons when revenging a road loss, with a 2-0 ATS mark this season. They are also 2-0 ATS this season when revenging a same season loss. Give me St. Bonaventure -3.5!
|03-03-22||Cincinnati v. SMU -7.5||71-76||Loss||-110||10 h 34 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (SMU -7.5)
I go no problem laying the 7.5-points at home with SMU. According to ESPN's bracketology, the Mustangs are one of the last 4 teams left out of the field of 68. That's not to say the committee wouldn't have them in the field, but it's a pretty clear-cut sign that SMU can not afford to lose either of their last two games (both at home) against Cincinnati and Tulane.
I just have a hard time seeing the Bearcats really wanting to play spoiler here. Cincinnati has lost 4 in a row and just played Tuesday at Houston after hosting USF on Saturday. So while it's their last game of the regular-season, it's hard to believe they will have a lot in the tank playing their 3rd game in 6 days. They would be better off resting up to try and make a run in the AAC tournament, because that's their only path to the NCAA Tournament. Give me SMU -7.5!
|03-02-22||Oklahoma State +4.5 v. Iowa State||53-36||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma St +4.5)
I'll take my chances with Oklahoma State as a 4.5-point dog at Iowa State on Wednesday. The Cyclones have won 4 in a row after losing 4 straight. It didn't come easy, as 3 of the 4 wins were by 3 points or less. The big key is this team has found a way to get to 7 wins in conference play and hit the 20-win mark overall. Even if they lose this game and at Baylor in the finale, they are going to be in the Big Dance.
Cowboys will be out for revenge, as they suffered a heartbreaking 81-84 OT loss at home to ISU a little over a month ago.
Cyclones are 0-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and OSU is 11-5 ATS last 16 revenging a same season loss. Give me the Cowboys +4.5!
|03-01-22||Florida v. Vanderbilt||Top||82-78||Loss||-110||10 h 43 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Vandy PK)
I love Vanderbilt at a Pick'em on the home floor against the Gators Tuesday. The Commodores have been a money-maker down the stretch. Vandy is 6-1-1 ATS over their last 8 games and I think we are getting a steal at this price. Florida has some nice wins at home, but are just 6-7 on the road this year and have gone just 2-6 ATS over their last 8 games.
Plenty of motivation for Vandy, as it will be their final home game of the season and a chance to end their season on a positive note after dropping 4 of their last 5. As for the Gators, their senior day is this Saturday against the likes of Kentucky. Hard to believe Florida won't have their eyes set on that game. Give me the Commodores PK!
|03-01-22||Dayton v. Richmond -2||55-53||Loss||-105||8 h 42 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Richmond -2)
I'll take my chances with Richmond as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Flyers. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Spiders at home. Richmond is 11-3 on their home floor this season.
Dayton just lost 60-62 at LaSalle last time out, which pretty much was the end of their hope of getting at least a share of the A-10 regular-season title. They are 2-games back of Davidson (also 1 back of VCU) with just 2 to play and the Wildcats host George Mason on Wednesday to wrap it up. Give me Richmond -2!
|02-28-22||Baylor v. Texas +1.5||68-61||Loss||-110||12 h 8 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Texas +1.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Texas as a 1.5-point home dog against Baylor. Upsets have been happening like crazy of late. Most of those upsets for the higher ranked teams are coming on the road. Baylor was one of those to do that, as they just beat Kansas at home on Saturday.
I think we are going to see the Longhorns do the same thing on Monday. Texas is 16-2 on their home floor this season with one of those being a mere 3-point loss to Texas Tech after they had jumped out to a 31-16 lead. Baylor isn't a bad road team, but I just think the spot here is a tough one. They put everything they had into beating the Jayhawks. Asking them to do the same on the road just two days later in a place that's extremely hard to win at is asking a lot. Give me the Longhorns +1.5!
|02-27-22||Nebraska v. Penn State -10.5||93-70||Loss||-110||9 h 28 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Penn State -10.5)
I got no problem laying double-digits with the Nittany Lions at home in this one. Nebraska is 0-9 in road games this season with 7 of those 9 losses coming in Big Ten road games. Of those 7 conference road losses, 6 have come by 12 or more points. So while Penn State may not seem like a team that should be laying this kind of a number, it's really not asking a lot for them to cover this spread.
Especially given the bad spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers just played their final home game and really gave a big effort on senior night against Iowa on Friday. I could definitely see Nebraska coming out extremely flat in this game.
On the flip side, Penn State is a team playing with some confidence right now. Nittany Lions have won 3 of their last 4. Penn State will be celebrating their senior night in this one and they have 4 seniors who either start or play big minutes in Sam Sessions, Jalen Pickett, Myles Dread and John Harrar. Give me the Nittany Lions -10.5!
|02-26-22||Gonzaga v. St. Mary's +10||57-67||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (St. Mary's +10)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Gaels as a double-digit home dog against No. 1 ranked Gonzaga. KenPom says this line should be 7 and that just goes to show you how overrated this Bulldogs team is in the betting market right now.
Not saying Gonzaga isn't a great team, but the price here is just too good to pass up, especially give the spot. The Bulldogs just played a pretty big road game at San Francisco on Thursday and now must play another road game on just 1 day of rest. There's also not a lot at stake for Gonzaga, who already has locked up the WCC regular-season title and outside of an early exit in the WCC tournament are all but a lock to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
St. Mary's would be in the field of 68 if the tournament started today, but are only projected at the moment to be a No. 8 or No. 9 seed. A win here would lock them in and more important get them out of that 8/9 game and avoid having to play a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the second round. Either way we can bank on the Gaels giving us everything they got in this game. Give me St. Mary's +10!
|02-26-22||Wisconsin v. Rutgers -2.5||Top||66-61||Loss||-110||8 h 23 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rutgers -2.5)
I love the value we are getting with the Scarlet Knights as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Badgers. This is a massive game for Rutgers, who are not a sure thing to make the NCAA Tournament, despite their impressive 10-7 record in Big Ten play, especially after dropping their last two on the road to Purdue and Michigan.
That's not to say I don't think Rutgers should be in the tournament. The Scarlet Knights have been playing some great basketball over the last couple of months. Prior to losing their last two, they had won 4 straight over ranked opponents, including a 73-65 win at Wisconsin.
The other big thing here is the huge home court advantage that Rutgers has. When this team is playing like they are, they are as tough as any team in the country to beat on their home floor. Scarlet Knights have only dropped 2 games at home all season and just one since December. Give me Rutgers -2.5!
|02-26-22||Auburn v. Tennessee -3||62-67||Win||100||7 h 41 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Tennessee -3)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Vols as a mere 3-point home favorite against Auburn. While the Tigers are No. 3 in the country and Tennessee is back at No. 17, there's good reason the Vols are favored in this one.
Tennessee is a perfect 14-0 on their home floor this season, which includes wins over the likes of Arizona and most recently Kentucky. Auburn is a very respectable 10-3 away from home, but they have lost their last two on the road to Florida and Arkansas. They also have a lot of close calls that could have went the other way. They only won by 2 at Georgia, by just 1 at Missouri, by 9 at Ole Miss, by 4 at Alabama and by 4 at St Louis. Give me Tennessee -3!
|02-26-22||Kentucky v. Arkansas -2.5||73-75||Loss||-110||5 h 43 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Arkansas -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Arkansas as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against Kentucky. As good as the Wildcats are, they are always going to be overvalued in spots like this. Not many teams are playing as good as basketball right now as the Razorbacks.
Arkansas is 12-1 over their last 13 games with the only loss being a mere 1-point setback on the road against Alabama. They have wins over both Auburn and Tennessee on their home floor during this run and are 15-1 on their home floor this season. Kentucky is just not the same team away from Lexington. The Wildcats are 17-0 on their home floor and just 6-5 everywhere else. Last time on the road they lost by double-digits at Tennessee. Give me Arkansas -2.5!
|02-24-22||Maryland v. Indiana -6||64-74||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Indiana -6)
I'll take my chances with Indiana winning by 7 or more at home against Maryland. I just really like this spot for the Hoosiers, who are now in desperation mode after dropping their last 5 games. They did show some life in their last game, losing in OT on the road to Ohio State.
I think returning home and getting a very favorable matchup with a pretty average Terrapins team is exactly what this team needs to get back on track. Indiana already went on the road and beat Maryland 68-55. Hoosiers really had their way inside in that game and their defense, which is one of the best in the Big Ten, made it really hard on Maryland to score. It won't get any easier for the Terps on the road. The other big thing is the Terps are not a good defensive team and Indiana packs a much bigger punch offensively at home than on the road. Give me the Hoosiers -6!
|02-23-22||Cincinnati v. UCF -2||61-75||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (UCF -2)
Easy play for me on UCF as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Bearcats. I just don't think the Knights are getting near enough respect at home in this one. UCF is 12-3 at home on the season. They have won 6 of their last 7 at home with the only loss coming to Houston.
Cincinnati has lost 3 of their last 4 and are fresh off an ugly 71-75 home loss to Temple. Bearcats are just 5-5 away from home on the season with their only two road wins over the last month coming against the likes of ECU and USF.
Cincinnati is just 3-11 ATS last 12 on the road after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 4-11 ATS last 15 after playing their previous game as a favorite. Knights are 8-1 ATS last 9 off a home win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread. Give me UCF -2!
|02-23-22||West Virginia v. Iowa State -5||Top||81-84||Loss||-110||9 h 11 m||Show|
50* (CBB) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Iowa State -5)
Love this spot and price with Iowa State as a 5-point home favorite against West Virginia. The Cyclones have put their 4-game losing streak behind them with two straight wins. First winning on the road at TCU and then clobbering Oklahoma 75-54 at home on Saturday. ISU will be extremely motivated for this game, as they played horribly in a 63-79 loss at West Virginia a couple weeks ago.
That's really the only positive for the Mountaineers over the last couple months. In fact, it's West Virginia's only win in their last 12 games as they come into this game just 14-13 overall and 3-11 in Big 12 play. Mountaineers are just 3-9 away from home on the season. They have not won a road game in Big 12 play. You have to go back to a Dec. 18th win at UAB to find their last win outside of Morgantown.
Mountaineers are 2-10 ATS as a dog this season, 1-9 ATS last 10 off a conference loss and 0-6 ATS last 10 off a loss by 10 or more. Give me the Cyclones -5!
|02-23-22||Syracuse v. Notre Dame -4.5||69-79||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Notre Dame -4.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the Irish as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Orange. Notre Dame is coming off a 74-79 loss at Wake Forest, but have not lost back-to-back games since losing 3 in a row in late Nov./early Dec. Irish are 16-4 over their last 20 games and are 11-1 on their home floor this season with the only loss coming at the hands of Duke.
Syracuse has gone an impressive 6-1 over their last 7 games, but it's come in a very soft portion of their schedule. Four of the six wins were at home and the two road wins were against NC State and BC. The one game they lost was on the road to Va Tech by a score of 69-71. Orange or just 4-9 away from home on the season. Give me Notre Dame -4.5!
|02-22-22||Villanova v. Connecticut -2||Top||69-71||Push||0||10 h 8 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH (UConn -2)
I will gladly take my chances with UConn as a slim 2-point home favorite against Villanova. There's no doubt the Huskies have had this game circled.
UConn will not only be out for revenge from a 74-85 loss at Villanova earlier this month, but they will be looking to snap a 5-game losing streak to the Wildcats. Huskies haven't beat beat Villanova since knocking them off in the opening weekend of the 2014 NCAA Tournament.
This team is more than equipped to do so, especially on their home floor, where they are 12-2 this season. As good as Villanova is, they are much more beatable on the road than they are at home (11-1 at home).
Huskies are 11-3 ATS last 14 at home when they come in having won 3 of their last 4 and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 when revenging a loss where they gave up 85 or points. Give me UConn -2!
|02-21-22||West Virginia v. TCU -4||Top||67-77||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
50* (CBB) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (TCU -4)
I'll take my chances with TCU laying 4-points at home against West Virginia. Both teams come into this game having lost 3 in a row, but there's just not a lot to like about this Mountaineer's team. West Virginia is way down. They are just 3-8 in road games this season and winless on the road in Big 12 play.
It's also a horrible spot for the Mountaineers, as they just hosted Kansas on Saturday and now have to play on the road with just one day between games. You also have a West Virginia offense that ranks dead last in the Big 12 in effective FG% and dead last in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. They need so much to go right just to be competitive on the road.
West Virginia is 2-9 ATS as a dog this season and 3-10 ATS in Big 12 games. They are also just 6-17 ATS last 3 seasons on the road after playing their previous game at home. Give me the Horned Frogs -4!
|02-20-22||Memphis -2.5 v. SMU||57-73||Loss||-110||5 h 43 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Memphis -2.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the Tigers as a 2.5-point road favorite against SMU. Memphis has been one of the hottest teams in the ACC over the last month. The Tigers have won 6 in a row with their last two victories coming on the road against Houston and Cincinnati. Memphis hasn't lost since falling 62-70 at home to SMU back on Jan. 20.
No doubt that loss is going to serve as a big motivator here and simply put this is a different looking Memphis team than the one that lost that previous meeting. I also think you have to take into account the possibility that Kendric Davis may not suit up for SMU, as he's listed as questionable after missing their 57-64 loss at Temple with an ankle injury.
Davis had a game-high 20-points in SMU's win over Memphis earlier in the season. Even if he plays, I still like the Tigers in this one. I just think with the way they are playing defense and the edge they have in size, they should win this game. Give me Memphis -2.5!
|02-20-22||Missouri State v. Northern Iowa -1.5||Top||75-95||Win||100||4 h 59 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH (UNI -1.5)
Love the value with Northern Iowa as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against Missouri State. The Panthers have been on an absolute roll after their ugly 4-7 start to the season. UNI is 11-3 over their last 14 games with 2 of those 3 losses coming in overtime. Panthers are 6-1 at home in MVC play. The only loss coming in OT to in-state rival Drake.
Missouri State has also been playing some strong basketball over the last couple of months, but I just don't see them winning on the road here. UNI is 31-14 in their last 45 at home as a favorite of 3 points or less. They have also won and covered in 4 of the last 5 meetings against the Bears, including a 85-84 road win at Missouri State back on Jan. 8. Give me Northern Iowa -1.5!
|02-20-22||Michigan v. Wisconsin -2.5||63-77||Win||100||3 h 54 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Wisconsin -2.5)
I'll take my chances with the Badgers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Wolverines. Hard to pass up on Wisconsin at this price. Michigan is coming off a solid 84-79 road win against Iowa and I just don't think the Wolverines will be able to pull off back-to-back road wins in the Big 10 in a span of just 3 days, as they took on the Hawkeyes Thursday.
Not only that, this Michigan team has to be running on fumes right now, as they will be playing their 5th game in less than a 2-week span.
I also like backing the Badgers here at home after they laid an egg in their last home game, losing 65-73 to Rutgers. Wisconsin is still a very strong 10-3 on their home floor this season. Give me the Badgers -2.5!
|02-19-22||Northwestern -3.5 v. Minnesota||60-77||Loss||-110||7 h 31 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Northwestern -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Northwestern as a mere 3.5-point road favorite against the Gophers. These are two teams I think are headed in different directions. While the Wildcats have lost their last two, those two losses came on the road at Illinois and at home against Purdue, arguably the two best teams in the Big Ten. Prior to that they had won 3 straight.
Minnesota is just 3-12 in Big Ten play and are just 2-12 since they started the season 10-1. Gophers last 5 losses have all come by 10 or more with each of the last two coming by 20 or more. The offense has been a complete no show of late, scoring just 45 and 46 in their last two games. Give me Northwestern -3.5!
|02-19-22||Tennessee v. Arkansas -2.5||Top||48-58||Win||100||7 h 32 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arkansas -2.5)
I love the Razorbacks as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Vols. Arkansas has been one of the most impressive teams in the SEC over the last couple of months. Razorbacks are 10-1 over their last 11 games with the only loss coming by a mere 1-point on the road against Alabama. They have won 7 straight at home and are 14-1 at home on the season.
The Vols come in having won 5 straight and 8 of their last 9. None bigger than Tuesday's 76-63 blowout win at home against Kentucky. Tennessee is just not the same team on the road as they are home. Vols are 5-6 in neutral site/road games, compared to 14-0 at home. Tennessee is 18-38 ATS last 56 on the road after winning 15 of their last 20 games and a mere 3-11 ATS last 14 after covering 3 of their last 4. Arkansas is 31-18 ATS last 49 at home, 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after winning 4/5 of their last 6 and 11-0 ATS last 11 games in the month of February. Give me the Razorbacks -2.5!
|02-19-22||St. Louis v. Davidson -2||58-79||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Davidson -2)
I'll gladly lay a mere 2-points at home with Davidson as they host St. Louis. The Wildcats are 19-2 over their last 21 games. They are 10-1 at home this season with the only loss being by a mere 2-points to VCU.
The Billikens are a good team, but they should be a bigger dog in this fight. Davidson has won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams, with 3 straight wins on their home floor.
I just think the value stems from the fact that the Wildcats have failed to cover each of their last 4 games and are just 1-7 ATS over their last 8. Too much value to pass up. Give me Davidson -2!
|02-19-22||Oklahoma v. Iowa State -1.5||54-75||Win||100||5 h 33 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Iowa State -1.5)
I'll take my chances with the Cyclones as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the Sooners. It's been tough sledding for Iowa State here of late, but they were able to snap a 4-game skid with a 54-51 win on the road against TCU. I like the Cyclones to build off that win and get some revenge against Oklahoma, who beat them by 13 in Norman earlier this season.
While the Cyclones have lost their last 2 at home, there's no denying the huge home court edge this team has. You also got to look at the fact that Oklahoma is just 2-9 since that win over ISU back in early January. Sooners are just 4-7 away from home this season with a 1-6 record in road games in Big 12 play.
Last time out Sooners lost 78-80 in OT at home to Texas. Oklahoma is 16-30 ATS last 46 on the road after a conference home loss and 0-6 ATS last 6 on the road after a game that saw 155 or more points. ISU is 12-3 ATS last 15 after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 and 32-6 ATS last 38 as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Give me the Cyclones -1.5!
|02-19-22||Kansas State +5.5 v. Oklahoma State||79-82||Win||100||5 h 31 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS MASSACRE (Kansas State +5.5)
I'll take my chances with Kansas State cashing as a 5.5-point road dog against Oklahoma State. The Wildcats are a much better team than their 14-11 (6-7 Big 12) record would suggest. K-State was hit hard with Covid earlier in the season and even then they still had a number of close games not go their way. Wildcats have 4 losses in Big 12 play by 3-points or less.
K-State comes into this one having won 4 of their last 5 with the only loss coming to Baylor. I not only think they can keep it close enough to cover, but win this game outright. Cowboys are just 2-6 over their last 8 games and while they are a respectable 8-5 at home this year, they are just 5-8 ATS in those games. Give me the Wildcats +5.5!
|02-18-22||Richmond v. VCU -2.5||Top||57-77||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
50* (CBB) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (VCU -2.5)
I will gladly lay a mere 2.5-points at home with VCU as they take on Richmond Friday night. The Rams are 14-3 over their last 17 games with their 3 losses coming to 3 of the best teams in the A-10 in St. Bonaventure, Davidson and Dayton.
VCU has won 14 of the last 18 at home against the Spiders and have won and covered 3 of the last 4 meetings overall.
The Rams have also had a lot of success playing teams like Richmond who rely heavily on the 3-point shot. VCU is 11-2 ATS this season vs teams who attempt 21+ 3-pointers per game and 10-1 ATS vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers per game. Give me the Rams -2.5!
|02-17-22||Michigan v. Iowa -4.5||84-79||Loss||-110||9 h 47 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa -4.5)
I'll take my chances with Iowa cashing as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against the Wolverines. The Hawkeyes come in having won 3 straight and while it's come against some of the lesser teams in the Big Ten, they have more than handled their business in these games. Iowa beat Minnesota 71-59 at home, crushed Maryland 110-87 on the road and cruised past Nebraska 98-75 at home.
You also have to factor in just how much better this Iowa team is at home compared to on the road. Hawkeyes are 13-2 at home this year compared to just 4-5 away from home. Michigan is just 5-7 in road games this year and fresh off a bad 57-68 loss at home to rival Ohio State.
This also figures to be a tired Wolverines team, who will be playing their 4th game in the last 10 days. I also don't think Michigan has enough fire-power offensively to keep pace with Iowa. Give me the Hawkeyes -4.5!
|02-16-22||Baylor v. Texas Tech -1.5||Top||73-83||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Texas Tech -1.5)
I love the Red Raiders as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the Bears. Texas Tech is Final Four caliber team and this is just too good a price to pass up on the Red Raiders at home. Tech is a perfect 15-0 at home this season and we have seen Baylor struggle a bit in big road games. Most recently losing 59-83 at Kansas and 78-87 at Alabama.
I also think there's a lot to be said about the fact that Tech was able to go to Baylor and get a 65-62 win earlier this season. The Red Raiders won that game despite shooting just 4-14 (28.6%) on 3-pointers, attempting 6 fewer free throws and basically being even in rebounds and turnovers.
I just think the difference in this game will be the Texas Tech defense, which is giving up a mere 58.3 ppg on 38.6% shooting at home this season. Red Raiders are also a much better offensive team at home than they are on the road. Give me Texas Tech -1.5!
|02-15-22||Wisconsin v. Indiana -3||Top||74-69||Loss||-110||10 h 18 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Indiana -3)
Give me the Hoosiers as a 3-point home favorite. This line isn't going to make a lot of sense, as you have an Indiana team that has lost 3 straight favored over the No. 15 ranked team in the country. Everyone is going to be taking the points with Wisconsin, which is why we will gladly load up on the other side.
There's plenty of reason to like Indiana in this spot. The Hoosiers last two losses were both on the road, where they just aren't the same caliber a team as they are at home. Indiana is a defensive minded team that feeds off the energy of their home crowd. It's a big reason why they are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS at home this season.
Hoosiers are 7-1 ATS at home this season when playing only their 2nd game in a week and a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this season after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. Give me Indiana -3!
|02-15-22||Kentucky v. Tennessee -1.5||63-76||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Tennessee -1.5)
I'll take my chances with the Vols as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the Wildcats on Tuesday. You can be assured that Tennessee has had this one circled after the ugly beating they took in a 79-107 loss at Kentucky back on Jan. 15.
It's almost like that win lit a fire under this team, as the Vols have gone 7-1 since that loss with the only setback being a 1-point loss at Texas.
The other big thing is where the game is being played. Tennessee is a different beast when they take the floor at Thompson Boling Arena. Vols are a perfect 13-0 at home this season.
Kentucky just won and covered as a big favorite at home against Florida, but are just 4-15 ATS last 19 off a cover and a mere 2-10 ATS the last 3 seasons off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Wildcats are also 2-9 ATS last 2 seasons when favoring a top tier defensive team that is holding teams to 42% or worse shooting 15+ games into the season. Give me the Volunteers -1.5!
|02-14-22||Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Kansas||62-76||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
40* (CBB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma State +10.5)
I'll take my chances with the Cowboys catching 10.5 against the Jayhawks. I just think the number here is too high, which has been a common them for KU here of late. The Jayhawks are just 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games.
One of the biggest things that stand out to me is we have Kansas laying 10.5 when they have just 1 conference win by more than 11 points this season.
Oklahoma State is just 5-7 in Big 12 play, but have shown up in some big games. Most notably beating Baylor 61-54 on the road. They have just one conference loss by more than 11 points.
It's also worth noting that these two teams played once already. KU won that game 74-63 at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 11-3 ATS last 3 seasons when revenging a same season loss and are outscoring opponents in this spot 73.5 to 70.0. Give me Oklahoma State +10.5!
|02-12-22||Ohio State v. Michigan -2||Top||68-57||Loss||-110||19 h 55 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Michigan -2)
Love the Wolverines as a mere 2-point home favorite against the Buckeyes. Michigan was one of the bigger disappointments early on this season. A lot of people thought this team was Final 4 caliber and yet they started the season 7-7 and just 1-3 in Big Ten play. They have started to turn it around, winning 6 of their last 8, with the only two losses coming on the road to Michigan State and Purdue. Last time out they didn't just beat Purdue, they annihilated the Boilermakers 82-58 at home.
Ohio State is a good team, but I think they are not quite as good as what people think. I definitely don't trust this team on the road. They are just 3-4 away from home in Big Ten play with their 3 wins coming against 3 of the bottom half teams in Penn St, Nebraska and Minnesota.
I also think it could be tough here playing their second road game in 4 days after Wednesday's hard fought 64-66 loss at Rutgers. Give me the Wolverines -2!
|02-12-22||Vanderbilt +11.5 v. Tennessee||64-73||Win||100||19 h 50 m||Show|
40* (CBB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Vanderbilt +11.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the Commodores catching double-digits on the road against in-state rival Tennessee. Vandy isn't going to be scared of the Vols. While Tennessee did win on the road at Nashville earlier this season, they only did so by 8 and the Commodores had a lead in the 2nd half of the game.
Not saying the Vols will win, but the number here is just too high given the matchup. The line inflation comes from Tennessee being viewed as an elite team and they coming in having won 3 in a row and 6 of their last 7 with the only loss being by 1-point at Texas.
Having already beat the Vols this season and a monster home game on deck against Kentucky Tuesday, I think this could be a bit of a flatspot for Tennessee. Give me Vanderbilt +11.5!
|02-12-22||Florida +10 v. Kentucky||57-78||Loss||-110||17 h 49 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Florida +10)
I just don't feel like the Gators should be a double-digit dog in this fight. Kentucky's a really good team and just keep stacking up the wins, but they are overvalued because of just how big a name they are.
Everyone just assumes the Wildcats are going to play their best every time out and that's tough to do when you are getting the best shot from every team you play. I just wonder if Kentucky won't struggle to lock in for this game with Tuesday's big showdown at Tennessee looming in just a couple days.
This is also a Florida team that has been playing better of late. The Gators have won 4 straight and are 7-2 in their last 9 with one of those two losses being a mere 7-point setback at the Vols. Give me the Gators +10!
|02-12-22||Indiana v. Michigan State -4.5||61-76||Win||100||16 h 21 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Michigan St -4.5)
I will gladly lay the 4.5-points at home with the Spartans against Indiana. Love this spot for Michigan State, who is going to be extremely motivated after dropping their last two games at Rutgers by 21 and then at home by 8 to Wisconsin.
I also don't think the home court edge for the Spartans is getting near enough respect with this line. Indiana doesn't pack the same punch the same punch on the road as they do at home, largely due to the fact that they rely so much on their defense, which just isn't as strong without the home crowd to feed off of. Give me Michigan State -4.5!
|02-10-22||Arizona -5.5 v. Washington State||72-60||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Arizona -5.5)
I got no problem laying the 5.5-points on the road with Arizona at Washington State. I don't think this is near enough points for the Cougars to be catching. The Wildcats are 20-2 with a 10-1 record in the Pac-12. Their only two losses have come in road games against the likes of Tennessee and UCLA, who are two of the 15 best teams in the country.
It just feels like we are seeing Washington State get a little too much respect here due to the fact that they come in having won 5 straight. Thing is, they have put together this winning streak against some pretty mediocre teams in Cal (twice), Utah, Colorado and Stanford.
It's also worth noting that in Arizona's 10 win in Pac-12 play, the smallest margin of victory has been by 9 points. Give me the Wildcats -5.5!
|02-10-22||Iowa v. Maryland +4.5||110-87||Loss||-104||19 h 59 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Maryland +4.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Terps as a 4.5-point home dog against the Hawkeyes. I'm not so sure Iowa should be favored. While Maryland has lost 3 in a row and are just 3-9 in Big Ten play, it's not like the Hawkeyes have been dominating the opposition. Iowa has a losing record of their own in conference play at 5-6.
I also don't trust this Iowa team away from home. The Hawkeyes are just 1-4 in Big Ten road games with losses to the likes of Rutgers and Penn State away from home.
You also have to look at the previous meeting between these two teams. Iowa won at home in a very closely contested game 80-75.
Terps are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing after 3 straight conference losses. Iowa is just 2-9 ATS last 11 on the road after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. Give me Maryland +4.5!
|02-09-22||Alabama -5.5 v. Ole Miss||97-83||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Alabama -5.5)
I'll take my chances with the Crimson Tide as a 5.5-point road favorite against the Rebels. This feels like the perfect get right spot for Alabama, who is coming off a couple of ugly losses to Auburn (81-100) and Kentucky (55-66) in their last two games.
Ole Miss should be a team they can make easy work of. The Rebels were able to cover as 10.5-point dogs in a 57-62 OT loss at Florida last time out, but were very lucky to do so. Ole Miss scored just 46 points in regulation and shot 32.8% from the field for the game. Their first since losing star freshman point guard Daeshun Ruffin to a season-ending knee injury.
Rebels aren't going to get away with that kind of offensive production against a team like the Crimson Tide, who are averaging 80.2 ppg for the season and 76.3 ppg in SEC play. Give me Alabama -5.5!
|02-09-22||Ohio State v. Rutgers +3.5||Top||64-66||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
50* (CBB) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rutgers +3.5)
I love Rutgers as a 3.5-point home dog against the Buckeyes. I don't think the Scarlet Knights should be catching points at home. Rutgers is 11-2 on their home floor this season and in their last game they just annihilated Michigan State 84-63 at home. They also have wins over Purdue, Iowa and Michigan at home in Big Ten play.
Ohio State is 14-5 SU and 7-3 in Big Ten play, but they are just 4-5 away from home this season with a 3-3 mark in Big Ten road games. The 3 wins coming against 3 of the worst teams in the league in Penn State, Nebraska and Minnesota.
Rutgers is 6-0 ATS under Pikiell in home games off an upset win as a conference dog. Give me the Scarlet Knights +3.5!
|02-08-22||Illinois +6 v. Purdue||Top||68-84||Loss||-110||11 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Illinois +6)
I love the value we are getting with Illinois as a 6-point road dog against the Boilermakers. Purdue comes into this game having won 5 straight, but in their last two home games they have beat Ohio St by just 3 and Michigan by 6. I not only think the Illini will keep this one close, but I give them a realistic shot of winning this game outright.
There's no doubt Illinois will be highly motivated for this game, as these two teams played back on Jan. 17 and the Boilermakers won that game on the road 96-88 in double-overtime.
You also got to look at the fact that Illinois has lost just 5 games all season and have lost by more than 6 points just one time in Big Ten play. That being a 65-81 loss at Maryland, which was sandwiched between that game with Purdue and a home game with Michigan State. They also didn't have Kofi Cockburn for that game against the Terps. Give me the Fighting Illini +6!
|02-08-22||Indiana +1 v. Northwestern||51-59||Loss||-110||11 h 34 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Indiana +1)
I'll take my chances with the Hoosiers at basically a pick'em on the road against the Wildcats. I think this is a good time to sell high on Northwestern after back-to-back wins and buy low on Indiana after an ugly 57-74 home loss to Illinois last time out.
The Hoosiers haven't lost back-to-back games all season and not that long ago we watched them lose 80-62 at home to Michigan and then turn around and beat Penn State 74-57 at home and Maryland 68-55 on the road in their next two games.
Prior to Northwestern scraping by Rutgers 79-78 in OT at home and beating Nebraska on the road, the Wildcats had lost 8 of 10 in Big Ten play. Give me the Hoosiers +1!
|02-06-22||Minnesota +12 v. Iowa||59-71||Push||0||7 h 0 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Minnesota +12)
I'll take my chances with the Gophers as a 12-point road dog against the Hawkeyes. These two teams played at Minnesota back on Jan. 16. While Iowa won and covered in a 81-71 win as a 7-point road favorite, the Gophers held their own and were without a couple key rotation players in Eric Curry and Sean Sutherlin. Both will be available for the rematch.
You also got an Iowa team that hasn't been playing that great. Hawkeyes have lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 4-6 in Big Ten play with just one of those wins coming by more than the number here. Hawkeyes should win this thing on their home floor, but I don't see it being as lopsided a matchup as this number would suggest. Give me the Gophers +12!
|02-05-22||Ole Miss v. Florida -8.5||57-62||Loss||-108||5 h 11 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Florida -8.5)
I think there's plenty of reason to believe the Gators will win by double-digits at home against Ole Miss. The Rebels just suffered some devastating news, as they learned that the knee injury that forced freshman Daeshun Ruffin to leave their last game against LSU is going to require season-ending surgery. It's heartbreaking for this team to lose arguably their best player when it felt like they were just hitting their stride.
Ruffin ranks 29th in the country with a 32.0 %Poss (# of possessions used). I think we saw the problems of him not being on the floor in that LSU game. The Tigers only field goal in the last 9:50 of that game was a breakaway layup with 10 seconds to go.
Florida isn't going to feel sorry for them, as they lost 54-70 at Ole Miss a couple weeks ago. Gators also need this win, as they are just 4-5 in SEC play right now. I just don't think Ole Miss will have the offense to make a game of it on the road. Give me Florida -8.5!
|02-05-22||St. John's v. Butler +1.5||75-72||Loss||-110||2 h 57 m||Show|
40* (CBB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Butler +1.5)
Butler should not be a home dog in this one. The Bulldogs have been playing much better of late. It started with a mere 7-point loss on the road to Providence. They then won back-to-back games at home against Creighton and Georgetown before losing by just 2 on the road at Xavier.
While an 8-4 home record doesn't look all that great. It does when those 4 losses are to Michigan St, Seton Hall, Xavier and UConn. St. John's just won 90-77 on the road against Georgetown, but had started out 0-4 on the road in Big East play before that.
This is also a bit of a lookahead for the Red Storm with a home game against Villanova on deck Tuesday. Give me Butler +1.5!
|02-02-22||Wisconsin +7 v. Illinois||67-80||Loss||-110||11 h 31 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Wisconsin +7)
I'll take my chances with the Badgers as a 7-point road dog against Illinois. I'm not sure why the books are giving the Illini this much love against Wisconsin, but I'll gladly take advantage of it. Illinois is a great team, but no way should they be laying more than 5-points against this Badgers team.
Some of Wisconsin's best work has come away from home this season, as the Badgers are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. The most notable of those being a 74-69 win at Purdue as a 12.5-point dog. Win or lose, I expect this to be a closely contested game the entire way. Give me Wisconsin +7!
|02-02-22||Notre Dame v. Miami-FL -4||68-64||Loss||-114||9 h 33 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Miami -4)
I will gladly lay the 4-points at home with Miami against the Fighting Irish. I think we are seeing Notre Dame getting way too much respect on the road. Irish have gone an impressive 10-2 over their last 12 games, but it's come against a pretty favorable schedule. Notre Dame's onlywins away from home in ACC play are against Pitt, Georgia Tech and Louisville.
Miami has been every bit as good as Notre Dame of late, as the Hurricanes are 12-2 over their last 14 games and are sitting at 8-2 in ACC play. Miami's only home loss in conference play is a 1-point setback to FSU when they were rolling. Give me the Hurricanes -4!
|02-02-22||Florida State v. Clemson -3||69-75||Win||100||8 h 22 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Clemson -3)
I will gladly take my chances with Clemson as a short 3-point home favorite against a short-handed Florida State team. While the Tigers are a disappointing 3-6 in ACC play, they have shown some signs of life here of late. Clemson followed up an impressive 75-48 win at home over Pitt with a near upset win at Duke, as they fell 69-71 to the Blue Devils.
Tigers should be highly motivated for this one and will definitely be the fresher of the two teams, as they have had the last 8 days off. FSU is a team I was high on not that long ago, but injuries have really derailed things. Malik Osborne has been lost for the season, Caleb Mills is battling an illness and Rayquan Evans is likely out due to the loss of a loved one. Give me Clemson -3!
|02-01-22||Texas v. Texas Tech -4||64-77||Win||100||11 h 42 m||Show|
40* (CBB) Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas Tech -4)
I'll take my chances with the Red Raiders laying just 4-points at home against the Longhorns. Texas Tech has been a money maker in Big 12 play so far with a 7-1 ATS record in 8 games. It's also really hard to not lay a mere 4-points with how good they have been at home. Red Raiders are a perfect 13-0 at home with a 9-3 ATS mark.
It's the opposite for Texas, who is 13-1 at home compared to just 3-4 on the road. The only top tier team they have played on the road in Big 12 play is ISU and they lost 70-79. This one also has a little extra meaning as it's the first time these two teams will have faced since Chris Beard left the Red Raiders to take over at Texas. Give me Texas Tech -4!
|02-01-22||Davidson v. St Bonaventure -2.5||Top||81-76||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (St Bonaventure -2.5)
I will gladly lay the 2.5-points at home with the Bonnies as they host Davidson on Tuesday. The Wildcats have an impressive 17-3 record, but a lot of that is the schedule they have played. While they have only loss 1 game in their last 17, they have been very fortunate in a number of games here of late. In their last 6 wins, all 6 have come by 10 or fewer with 4 of those by 4 points or less.
You also have a St Bonaventure team that is extremely tough to beat on their home floor. The Bonnies are 7-1 at home this season. This to me feels like a statement game for St Bonaventure and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game going away. Give me the Bonnies -2.5!
|01-31-22||Iowa -4.5 v. Penn State||Top||86-90||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Iowa -4.5)
I really like the Hawkeyes as a slim 4.5-point road favorite against the Nittany Lions. These two teams just played 10 days ago and Iowa won that matchup handedly 68-51 at home. Penn State had just 1 guy finish that game in double-figures, where the Hawkeyes had 4. Iowa also won that game without a big game from their star player Keegan Murray, as he had just 15 points on 4 of 12 shooting.
I just don't think it's enough to be playing at home for Penn State to see a different result, especially with Iowa motivated to play well after a loss at home to Purdue last Thursday. Nittany Lions just don't have the offense to keep it close. They have eclipsed the 70-point mark just once in 9 Big Ten games and that was back on Jan. 5 against Northwestern. Iowa is averaging 73.6 ppg in conference play. Give me the Hawkeyes -4.5!
|01-30-22||Marquette v. Providence -2||63-65||Push||0||3 h 26 m||Show|
40* (CBB) Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Providence -2)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Friars at basically a pick'em at home against the Golden Eagles. I just think Marquette is getting a little too much respect here coming into this game on a 7-game win streak.
Providence is 17-2 on the season and the only loss they have suffered in the last two months is a 56-88 blowout loss at Marquette back on Jan. 4. There's no doubt that embarrassment is still fresh in the minds of these Friars' players. Providence has not lost a game on their home floor all season and they keep that perfect record at the Dunkin' Donuts Center. Give me the Friars -2!
|01-29-22||Rutgers -2 v. Nebraska||63-61||Push||0||9 h 31 m||Show|
40* (CBB) Prime Time ATS MASSACRE (Rutgers -2)
I will take my chances with the Scarlet Knights as a mere 2-point road favorite against the Cornhuskers. We backed Nebraska in their last game at home against Wisconsin and took it on the chin, as they lost by 8 as a 7.5-point dog.
I know the Cornhuskers play better at home, but there's just too much value at this price with Rutgers. There will be no overlooking Nebraska for the Scarlet Knights, as they just lost at home to Maryland after losing at Minnesota a few days earlier. This will be an extremely motivated Rutgers team and they are the more talented team in this matchup. It's going to take a really bad showing by the Knights and a great showing by Nebraska, just for this game to be close. Give me Rutgers -2!
|01-29-22||Kansas State v. Ole Miss||56-67||Loss||-110||6 h 6 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Kansas State PK)
I will gladly take my chances with Kansas State as a mere pick'em on the road against the Rebels. While the Wildcats come in off back-to-back losses, those came at home to Kansas and on the road to Baylor. The two best teams in the Big 12. Prior to that they had won at home over Texas Tech and at Texas. They also lost by just 3 to the Jayhawks.
I think they are without a doubt the better team. Ole Miss is just 10-10 and are a mere 2-6 in the SEC. Losses at home to the likes of Samford and Missouri really speak to the talent level on this team. Give me Kansas State PK!
|01-29-22||Missouri v. Iowa State -9||50-67||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa State -9)
I will lay the 9-points with the Cyclones at home against Missouri. I think anything in the single-digits is a great price on Iowa State. I think the Big 12 is head and shoulders ahead of the SEC and you have one of the Big 12's better teams against one of the worst.
I also like the fact that while the Cyclones come in off a big 84-81 OT win at OKlahoma State, they are just 3-5 SU over their last 8 games. I see a very motivated ISU team taking the floor, especially at home.
The other big thing here is the awful spot for Missouri, who just suffered a heartbreaking 54-55 loss at home to No. 1 ranked Auburn on Tuesday. For a team like the Tigers, who aren't sniffing an at-large bid, this could be a really tough game for them to get up for.
It's also a bad matchup. Iowa State is really good defensively and this Missouri team has been one of the worst offensive groups in the SEC this year. Tigers are 10th in the SEC in offensive efficiency and 10th in effective FG%. They are bad in the turnover department and struggle big time on the offensive glass, both getting them and giving up second chance opportunities. Give me the Cyclones -9!
|01-29-22||Oklahoma +10 v. Auburn||Top||68-86||Loss||-110||4 h 7 m||Show|
50* (CBB) -Big 12/SEC Max Unit PLAY OF THE DAY (Oklahoma +10)
I love the value we are getting with the Sooners as a 10-point road dog against the Tigers. I just think the Big 12 is a lot better than the SEC and there's some value on the Big 12 in this midseason cross-conference showdown.
I'm not saying a team like Oklahoma is going to go on the road and upset a team like Auburn, but there's no reason for Auburn to be laying double-digits here. Not in this spot. The Tigers are off a thrilling 55-54 win at Missouri and have a MASSIVE lookahead with rival Alabama coming to Auburn on Tuesday.
Oklahoma is just 3-5 in Big 12 play, but are ranked No. 27 in the country at KenPom, which just goes to show you how good that conference is. This is a huge game for the Sooners, as this would be quite the resume builder when selection Sunday comes around. I think they make a game of it. Give me Oklahoma +10!
|01-27-22||Ohio State v. Minnesota +7||75-64||Loss||-110||20 h 55 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Minnesota +7)
This is a few too many for the Gophers to be catching at home against the Buckeyes. Minnesota had lost 4 straight prior to pulling out a 68-65 win at home against Rutgers last Saturday. Even though this team is 11-5 and have played the No. 48 toughest schedule, it doesn't feel like people are buying into this team being all that good.
Part of that is their 2-5 record in Big Ten play, but that's a big reason why I feel we are getting such a great price with the Gophers in this spot. Ohio State is 12-4 and ranked No. 16 in the country, but I'm not convinced they are as good as they look. Yes, they beat Duke at home, but you have to remember that came just a few days after the Blue Devils pulled out that massive win against Gonzaga.
The Buckeyes do have an impressive 73-55 win at home against Wisconsin, but their other 4 wins in Big Ten play are against Nebraska, Northwestern and Penn State (2x). They lost by 16 at Indiana and by 10 in the rematch at Wisconsin. They also needed OT to win at Nebraska, who doesn't have a conference win. Give me Minnesota +7!
|01-27-22||Wisconsin v. Nebraska +7.5||Top||73-65||Loss||-105||17 h 1 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Max Unit Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nebraska +7.5)
I will gladly take the 7.5-points at home with Nebraska, as they get ready to host No. 11 Wisconsin. No doubt this line is inflated on the Badgers with the Cornhuskers coming in having lost 6 straight, 11 of their last 13 and owning a 0-8 record in Big Ten play.
While Nebraska is clearly a bottom feeder in the Big Ten, they are a much more competitive team at home. Despite their ugly record, they are 7-6 ATS at home this year and 4-4 ATS in Big Ten play. Three of those covers coming at home. They lost by 7 at home to Indiana, by 10 to Illinois and by 8 in OT to Ohio State.
Nebraska is also well rested, as they last played on Jan. 17. This should be a very hungry and motivated team, as they fight for that first conference win.
Wisconsin is 15-3, but did just lost 74-86 at home to Michigan State and have not been nearly as sharp on the road. They only won by 6 at Northwestern, by 1 at Maryland, lost by 18 at Ohio State and in non-conference only won by 4 at Georgia Tech. Give me the Cornhuskers +7.5!
|01-26-22||Penn State +8.5 v. Indiana||57-74||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Penn State +8.5)
I'll take my chances with the Nittany Lions as a 8.5-point road dog against the Hoosiers. I know it's been a struggle for Penn State here of late, but I don't think Indiana should be laying this kind of number. Hoosiers are a solid team, but I definitely think they are a step below the top teams in the Big Ten.
I also don't love the spot for the Hoosiers, who just two days ago got steamrolled at home 80-62 by Michigan. That's after they played Thursday at home against Purdue, so this is now their 3rd game in 7 days. In comparison, Penn State has had 3 days off and are playing just their 2nd game in the last 10 days. Give me the Nittany Lions +8.5!