Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-28-24 | Bucks -130 v. Pelicans | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The Pelicans are still without Brandon Ingram. For the Bucks, their big guns are listed as probable for this game and so they are the healthier team in terms of top talent entering this match-up. Milwaukee off a double OT home loss to the Lakers. Note that the Bucks are 5-2 SU this season when off a home loss. Overall, Milwaukee enters this game on a 3-0 run when off a SU loss. The Pelicans are also off a loss but their bounce back is less likely. New Orleans is just 2-2 SU in the 4 games (including the one he got hurt) since Ingram was injured. Also, the Pelicans have lost 4 of 7 at home. The road team is actually 11-5 in the last 16 New Orleans games! The Bucks had won 11 of 15 before the home loss to the Lakers and this is the ideal spot for a bounce back as Ingram had 26 the last time these teams met and the Pelicans still lost the game by 24 points! MILWAUKEE (-) |
|||||||
03-28-24 | San Diego State +11 v. Connecticut | Top | 52-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Thursday: San Diego State Aztecs (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 7:40 ET - The Aztecs have lost 10 games this season but only 1 was by a double digit margin. Now, of course, the Huskies are the defending champs and are a big favorite with plenty of reasoning behind it. However, the point is that this Aztecs team is a tough team too. They come from a Mountain West Conference that was very tough this season. Also, they have revenge here from losing the Championship Game to UConn last season. Note that, in that game, the Aztecs were down by just 5 points with about 5 minutes to go when the Huskies hit a big 3-pointer and then eventually pulled away for the win by 17 points. The point is that the game was not the blowout it might look like on the surface in terms of the final score. That experience in the Championship Game will do the Aztecs plenty of good here in the rematch. They have the full confidence that they can compete with this Huskies and, while it seems nearly everyone is practically considering Connecticut B2B champs already, I am not so sure. It is so tough to repeat and so many things have to go right and this Aztecs team can D up. So what happens if the shots are not falling for the Huskies and a tough defensive-minded team like San Diego State gets a lead and can play from in front? Not including OT points of course, the Aztecs have allowed an average of only 63 points last 15 games! The Huskies have a great D too and have allowed more than 67 points just twice in last 9 games but the point is the Aztecs are being a little undervalued here with this inflated number in the 11 range as of 12 hours before tipoff. This game is going to be a war and I expect it to be decided by single digits as a result. The Aztecs have good size on the wings and Jaedon LeDee has been a beast this season for them this season and he was only playing 19 minutes per game on average last season. He will be much more of a handful for the Huskies to contend with this time around! Grab the big points here! SAN DIEGO STATE (+) |
|||||||
03-28-24 | Clemson +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Thursday: Clemson Tigers (+) vs Arizona Wildcats @ 7:10 ET - Clemson is hot at the right time. The Tigers beat a solid New Mexico team and strong Baylor team to get here. I like what I have seen. Yes, Arizona is a tough team but this line is in the 7.5 range and looks like too much. Clemson's final 6 regular season losses were ALL by 7 or less points and, in fact, were by an average margin of defeat of just 3 points. Arizona lost 2 of 3 entering the Big Dance and then got a freebie by facing an outclassed Long Beach State in their first match-up. Though facing Dayton was then a tougher 2nd round match-up, note that the Flyers had 6 more field goal attempts in the game. Dayton was simply done in by an off-shooting night from downtown in that game. Note that Clemson has been hot from the field and has 4 guys averaging double digits in points so far in the tourney. Getting balanced scoring is key going up against a tough Arizona team and I like the fact that Chase Hunter has gotten particularly hot. His strong play at the guard position (15 or more points in 7 of last 9 games including 20+ so far in both tourney games) helps take some pressure off leading scorer PJ Hall. But Hall does combine with Schieffelin for solid frontcourt scoring while Hunter and Girard are getting it done in the backcourt. A balanced attack can hang tough with this Arizona team and the Tigers confidence is very high entering this match-up. It is not just coincidence that there are 4 ACC teams in the Sweet 16! At the same time, Arizona is the only team remaining from the Pac-12. Grab the points here! CLEMSON (+) |
|||||||
03-28-24 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs -170 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Toronto Maple Leafs Money Line (-) vs Washington Capitals @ 7 ET - This line is a little on the pricey side - in the -175 range - but there are two ways to look at that. One is that it may seem risky to lay a higher price but the other way to view is that normally the Maple Leafs would be at least a -200 favorite, if not -225 or -250, when on home ice against the Capitals. The reason we are getting line value here is because the Caps have been hotter of late and that is keeping this line a lower than we would otherwise see. Keep in mind, Toronto has hammered Washington by a combined score of 11 to 4 in their two meetings this season and that includes one last week. Also, the Leafs should get a boost here with Samsonov likely to be back between the pipes as he recovered from a leg contusion. He is 11-3-2 at home this season. For the Capitals, they enter this one on a 3-game winning streak but have only 1 winning streak of more than 3 games this season! When they enter a game off exactly 3 straight wins, the streak has ended in all but one case this season. Washington going 1-4 in this situation. Some of the recent wins for the Capitals have come against slumping teams or teams that will miss the post-season. Don't get me wrong, the Caps have been playing better but keep this in mind plus the Leafs are on home ice and angry off B2B losses. TORONTO (-) |
|||||||
03-28-24 | Blackhawks v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Thursday: OVER the total in Ottawa Senators vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 7 ET - Great spot for an over here. The Senators scored 5 first period goals at Buffalo last night and then were able to coast in for the victory in an eventual 6-2 win over the Sabres. Ottawa has now had 7 straight games total at least 7 goals! Amazingly, the Sens have either scored or allowed at least 5 goals in 6 straight games! The Blackhawks are off a rare, low-scoring win as they beat Calgary 3-1 but the Flames have quit on the season. That is not the case here as now you have two teams meeting that both are out of the post-season race but both are playing well of late and scoring plenty of goals. The Hawks and Sens are each just building for next season but sometimes that loose and relaxed late-season hockey can bring out the best in two teams scoring as they build for the future. Note that Chicago still has defensive struggles at times but is scoring an average of 3.5 goals per game during their current 6-4 run last 10 games. As for the Senators, they have won 6 of 9 games and averaged a respectable 3 goals not including OT/SO of course. Look for Sens games to MAKE IT 8 IN A ROW in terms of games getting to at least 7 goals! OVER the total in Ottawa |
|||||||
03-28-24 | Flyers -146 v. Canadiens | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -146 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) @ Montreal Canadiens @ 7 ET - Monday is April 1st and this NO April Fools joke ladies and gentleman ... the Flyers have NOT lost 3 straight games since January and YES they are entering this game off B2B losses! I don't see this streak coming to an end. The Flyers have been playing a brutal schedule of late and they know they must take advantage of a rare reprieve as they look to remain in the #3 spot in the Metropolitan Division. The Flyers have played 7 straight games and 9 of 10 games against teams that are going to be in the playoffs. Now they have a break in the schedule finally and face a team that is in the bottom of the Atlantic Division. Even though off of B2B wins, the Canadiens are still tied with the Blue Jackets for least home wins in the Eastern Conference. Home ice has been nothing special for the Habs and they are now playing their first home game after a long road trip and that first game after such a trip tends to be very tough more often that not. Montreal has lost 18 of last 26 on home ice. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
|||||||
03-27-24 | Clippers v. 76ers +6 | Top | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +6 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:40 ET - I really want to take the money line here but the 6 points is certainly nice, added insurance but take a good look at this one because the SU trending is quite impressive! The Clippers are only 5-7 SU L12 games. Simply put, LA has just not been playing that well. This is especially true when you look at the teams they have beaten. They beat the Bulls twice but Chicago has a losing record this season. They beat the Blazers twice but Portland is a poor 19-53 this season. So the only other win must have been against a powerhouse, right? Nope, not at all. The other win was over a Rockets team that would not even make the play-in round of the post-season if the season ended today. All of this said, these struggling Clippers are now favored by a half-dozen points against a respectable Sixers team. Of course Philly is without Embiid and yes the Clips have revenge here for the loss to the 76ers in LA last week. However, this line is still far too high in my opinion. The 76ers are happy to be back home as they have played only two home games in the last 2 and 1/2 weeks and yes they won both games. Grab the points here as the value is with the home dog in this one. PHILADELPHIA +6 |
|||||||
03-27-24 | Bruins v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins @ 7:35 ET - One could certainly argue for an under here as it is a key divisional battle and both teams have solid goalies. However, this clubs are also very potent offensively and I would not be surprised to see both Hedman and Point back on the ice for the Lightning tonight. Also, the Bruins are in the 2nd game of a B2B while the Lightning are off a long West Coast road trip. Given this situation neither club is likely to be ultra sharp in the defensive zone. However, each club is also loaded with playmakers and the Bruins have seen 6 of last 8 games total at least 6 goals. The Lightning have had 7 of last 9 games total at least 6 goals. Tampa Bay has scored an average of 4 goals per game during this stretch. Boston has scored 3.6 goals per game last 9 games. Look for each team to get to 3 goals in this one and that leads to at least a 4-3 final in this one. OVER 6 in Tampa Bay |
|||||||
03-27-24 | UNLV +5.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 68-91 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NIT Semi-Final Wednesday UNLV Runnin' Rebels +5.5 @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 7 ET - Certainly I respect the Pirates and, particularly at home, but this Rebels team is also strong and well-coached too - just like Seton Hall. What I particularly like about UNLV here is that they are on a 12-3 SU and 2 of the 3 losses were by just 3 points. Also, the 3 games included two losses to Nevada (NCAA Tourney team) and a loss to San Diego State (still alive in NCAA Tourney and facing UConn next). The point is that this Rebels team has been rock solid and is offering excellent underdog line value here. Remember they were 8-3 on the road this season. As solid as Seton Hall is, it took OT for them to get past an underachieving St Joseph's team in round one of this tourney. Also, the Pirates beat North Texas by 14 but the Mean Green had 5 more shots from the field. North Texas simply had an off shooting night. Give some credit to the Pirates defense of course but Seton Hall now faces a much tougher challenge here. Grab the underdog line value with a team that has played very well on the road this season. I like fading line moves too as this one has been moving toward the Pirates since the line came out. UNLV +5.5 |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Cincinnati +3.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 @ Indiana State Sycamores @ 9 ET - Look at the two NIT match-ups today and you will notice something very interesting about the difference in the lines on the two games. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. When people see something off and jump all over it you will often find me, if I am on the game, absolutely on the other side of the masses. So, in this case, notice that Ohio State is hosting Georgia and the Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 in that one and have the better overall record plus a home record of 15-4 facing a Bulldogs team with a road record of 5-6. Now look at this game. Indiana State has a much better overall record than Cincinnati plus the Sycamores are 15-1 at home while the Bearcats are 4-7 on the road and yet this line opened up at 2.5 in most shops. Sure enough Indiana State is up to a 3.5 point favorite in this one and, for me, it is go time on this one! Whey in the world would the Buckeyes be 8.5 point favorites over Georgia today but the Sycamores opened up as only a 2.5 favorite over the Bearcats when you consider the home / road dominating variances involved in each match-up? Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. Cincy is the play here. Keep in mind, the Bearcats played in the ultra tough Big 12 this season and they are 15-2 in non-conference games with the only two losses to Xavier and Dayton. The Musketeers also made the NIT and the Flyers made the NCAA Tourney. Cincy is a tough team battle-tested and the Sycamores are certainly solid but this line is set "funny" for a reason and I love fading the masses. Road team in an upset is my prediction BUT will grab the value of the points just in case. CINCINNATI +3.5 |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Thunder -120 v. Pelicans | Top | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday: Oklahoma City Thunder -2 or Pick'em -120 @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The road team has won both match-ups this season and the set up here is perfect. Oklahoma City is off a loss but had won 14 of 17 games prior to this. The Thunder are 4-0 SU last 4 times when off a loss. Also the road team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings between teams. The Pelicans are off B2B wins and have won 5 of 6 games. However, the last 4 wins have come against 3 bad teams plus a Miami team dealing with injury issues as the Heat had lost 6 of 9 prior to winning most recent game. You are seeing the Thunder favored on the road here as a result of all of the above so don't let the line fool you. We test the double perfect trends here as the best way to play this one is on the money line by laying a little extra juice instead of laying -110 but needing to win by 3 to cash your ticket. Money line is the best option here. OKLAHOMA CITY -120 or -125 |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Golden Knights v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6 in Nashville Predators vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8 ET - The Golden Knights Hill is currently injured and the goalie did not travel with the team for this road trip. With Thompson starting last night at St Louis that means he either has to again in a B2B - unlikely and not easy - or little-used Jiri Patera gets the call. Patera has been with Henderson in the AHL and he has allowed an average of 4 goals in his only 4 NHL starts this season. As for Nashville, they are on a hot run an getting solid goalie work. However, the Predators have allowed an average of 4 goals per game in their last 5 meetings with the Golden Knights. In other words, don't be surprised if Vegas again scores well here as there are some match-up edges for them too. But the Preds should also stay hot and Nashville has scored an average of 4 goals in their current 15-2 hot streak. Don't be surprised if each team reaches the 3-goal mark in this one. OVER 6 in Nashville |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Devils v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 -115 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils @ 7:35 ET - Great spot for an over here. Toronto is off a 2-1 loss but that was at Carolina and followed 5 straight overs which averaged 8.6 goals per game. Now, back on home ice and ready to go hard after a low-scoring loss I fully expect the Maple Leafs to push the pace in this one! As for the Devils, they are off a 4-0 win but that was a rare shutout. In fact, New Jersey had allowed 3.5 goals per game over a 17-game stretch prior to that shutout win. Another interesting thing about the Devils is they have either scored or allowed 4 goals in 17 of their last 19 games. In other words, don't be surprised if we see at least a 4-3 type battle here. The Leafs had been trending over and the Devils have scored an average of 4 goals per game last 4 games but I also see them struggling to stop a Maple Leafs team that is angry off a loss. OVER 6.5 -115 in Toronto |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Flyers +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -155 @ New York Rangers @ 7 ET - This is a rivalry game and also a very important one in terms of the playoff race. Rangers hoping to win the division plus they have a shot at the #1 seed in the East. As for the Flyers, they are trying to hang on to the #3 seed and avoid having to battle for a wild card spot just to get in to the post-season. The Rangers are a solid money line favorite with good reason here. However, New York has only 6 wins by a multi-goal margin in their last 14 games. Philly is off a 4-1 loss but this was preceded by only 4 multi-goal losses last 21 games! The Flyers have been tough on teams and are battling hard and we have excellent line value with the puck line here. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -155 |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Poland v. Wales OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #225609: Euro Champ Qualifying | Final Tuesday OVER 2 in Wales vs Poland @ 3:45 ET - Poland has some injury issues and that could open things up for Wales to attack the right-hand side. Also I like the fact that Wales is on their home pitch for this one. However, Poland comes in off off a huge high-scoring win - just like Wales - and I expect the boosted confidence to lead to plenty of attacking in this one. Poland has scored at least 1 goal in 5 straight matches and averaged 2 goals apiece during this unbeaten run. Wales has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches and they have had 6 straight matches total at least 2 goals. We have excellent line value here with this total available at 2 goals. Wales has scored 2.3 goals per match last 6 matches but also allowed a goal in 4 straight matches. Poland has some issues at right-back so I can not anticipate them delivering a clean sheet here either. In fact, in Euro Champ Qualifying action, Poland has allowed a goal in 3 straight matches. Look for at least a 2-1 final in this one given all of the above. OVER 2 in Wales |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Greece v. Georgia OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #225601: Euro Champ Qualifying | Final Tuesday OVER 2 in Georgia vs Greece @ 1 ET - Georgia will get a boost with the return of Kvaratskhelia for this one plus they are on their home pitch. However, as hot as Georgia has been in terms of scoring goals on their home pitch, Greece comes into this one rolling large after a 5-0 win over Kazakhstan! Georgia has scored at least 1 goal in 7 straight matches. Even though that included some weaker foes too, it bears mentioning that Georgia has scored multiple goals in 4 straight matches on their home pitch! This is a confident group here hosting but the confidence level of Greece in this key final qualifying match is also sky high! Greece has scored at least 1 goal in 5 of 6 matches and has averaged 3 goals scored per match in those 5 matches in which they have made the net ripple. Like Georgia, it is has included some weaker competition but also Kazakhstan had truly been playing well before Greece shredded them. Also, this was on the heels of an impressive 2-2 draw with France. The value of an over 2 here is certainly huge and I just can not see this one ending with anything less than a 2-1 final given the current level of play of both of these clubs. OVER 2 in Georgia |
|||||||
03-25-24 | 76ers +9.5 v. Kings | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B spot but they have momentum on their side after knocking off the Clippers last night in LA. Also, they only had two players go big minutes in that game so this Philly team will not be as worn out as one might expect in a B2B. Additionally, Sacramento just got back from a trip back east. Yes, the Kings were off yesterday but they had a lot of travel including coming all the way back from Orlando. Also, if you look at the long-term trending of the Kings this season, they do not have a history of blowing teams out. They are only 18-15 SU last 33 games and many of those wins by a single digit margin. In fact, only 9 times in last 33 games have the Kings won the game by double digits. I like this hungry Sixers team in this spot to stay within the inflated number. They have the shooters to hit enough shots from outside to stay within striking distance of Sacramento throughout this game. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 |
|||||||
03-25-24 | Golden Knights v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 6 in St Louis Blues vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8 ET - This should be a great battle with the Blues having won 6 of 7 games and scoring an average of 4 goals per game during this hot streak. This is a key game in the playoff race and though that might lead you to expect a defensive-minded playoff battle, that is just not likely the way these teams are trending of late. Note that 4 straight St Louis games have totaled at least 6 goals. Also, the Golden Knights have won 5 of 7 games and averaged 4 goals scored per victory in those 5 wins and overall they are averaging 3.5 goals last 7 games. I see strong odds on each team getting to at least 3 goals here which would, of course, lead to at least a 4-3 final if each team does reach the 3-goal mark. The Golden Knights have seen 11 of 15 games total at least 6 goals and 10 of the 11 totaled at least 7 goals! More of the same expected here. OVER 6 in St Louis |
|||||||
03-25-24 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Tarleton State -5 | Top | 73-72 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
CIT Semi-Final: Monday Tarleton State Texans -5 vs IPFW Mastodons @ 7 ET - This is the match-up I wanted and so I am getting involved in this one with a best bet. IPFW was "okay" this season but they still finished in the bottom half of the Horizon League as they finished 7th in the 11-team league. The Mastodons are decently offensively but how well will their shots fall on the road here? Also, IPFW is not good defensively. The Texans, therefore, hold a big defensive edge in addition to also having the home court edge. Also, Tarleton State finished 2nd in the 11-team WAC and the team they finished behind was Grand Canyon. Yes, that same Grand Canyon team that just beat St Mary's in the NCAA Tourney plus would have also upset Alabama were it not for a horrific shooting effort including just 2 of 20 from three-point land! So the point is we have value here with Texans laying a very reasonable number at home in this one. They went 13-3 at home while IPFW went 9-7 on the road this season. Also, 9 of the 12 Mastodons losses this season were by at least 6 points and this one will be too! TARLETON STATE -5 |
|||||||
03-25-24 | Racing Ferrol v. Albacete OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #202089: Spanish La Liga 2: Monday OVER 2 -125 in Albacete vs Racing Ferrol @ 3:30 ET - Each of last 4 meetings have totaled at least 2 goals and have averaged 4 goals apiece. When these clubs met earlier this season it was a wild 5-4 win for Racing Ferrol. They are now the visitors in the rematch and they have had 4 straight matches total at least 2 goals and these 4 have averaged 3 goals apiece. As for Albacete, they are out for revenge here and they also have been trending to the over. Albacete has had 5 straight matches total at least 2 goals and these have averaged 3 goals apiece. The over is a perfect 3-0 for each club in their matches this month so we are testing trending that is 100% x 2 in the month of March. Grab the value of the low total here with this one available at 2 goals making it a solid investment opportunity. OVER 2 -125 in Albacete |
|||||||
03-25-24 | Gimnasia Mendoza v. Almirante Brown OVER 1.75 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -137 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #210601: Argentine Nacional B: Monday OVER 1.75 -135 in Almirante Brown vs Gimnasia Mendoza @ 3 ET - 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 2 goals and these 5 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. Almirante Brown has seen each of last two home matches total at least 2 goals and they have scored 3 goals in those matches. They should get on the scoreboard again here at home but Gimnasia Mendoza has been trending over this season with each of last 6 matches totaling at least 2 goals. Those 6 matches have averaged 3 goals and each of last 4 matches have totaled at least 3 goals so this one testing an over run that is a perfect 4-0. Grab the value of the low total here. OVER 1.75 -135 in Almirante Brown |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Yale v. San Diego State OVER 128.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Sunday OVER 128.5 in San Diego State Aztecs vs Yale Bulldogs @ 9:40 ET - While I certainly respect the Aztecs defense, I also respect a Yale team that seemingly can hang tough with most anyone. Remember early in the season they faced Gonzaga when the Bulldogs were #11 in the country and faced Kansas when the Jayhawks were #2 in the country. Those games each totaled at least 135 points and the Bulldogs scored an average of 65.5 ppg in those 2 games. San Diego State is favored by 5.5 points at the time of this write-up. So that puts this game in the 71 to 66 range which is nearly double digits above the total if the Bulldogs perform as they have against other strong teams. In fact, they also scored 65 against a Vermont team that made the tourney and, of course, just scored 78 against a #4 seed Auburn in their upset of the Tigers. This is a confident Ivy League club that can hang tough in this game. At the same time however, with all the talk about the Aztecs D, this San Diego State team can score quite well also. When they faced ranked opponents in the regular season - Utah State twice and Gonzaga once - the Aztecs averaged 84 ppg and won all 3 games! Now they just scored 69 games in beating UAB to advance to face the Bulldogs. Also this is the type of match-up (expected to be a rather tight margin late) that often results in late fouling and quick threes at the other end. Essentially some "scramble points" if needed. However, I expect a solid winner here without the "scramble points" as this one is destined for at least the 130s based on the above. OVER 128.5 in San Diego State |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Lightning v. Ducks OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 -115 in Anaheim Ducks vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 8:35 ET - Jonas Johannson has not played in goal for Tampa Bay in a month! But that is because they had no B2B games. Now they do and that means either Andrei Vasilevskiy back in goal tonight (he faced the Kings yesterday) or Johansson. So the options are a tired #1 goalie or a rusty #2 goalie. That sets this up well for an over. Tampa Bay has been scoring very well and a struggling Anaheim can not stop anyone. However, the Ducks should score some here considering the goalie situation of TB as well as the B2B spot for them. Note that Anaheim is off a 4-0 win over Chicago but had allowed 5 goals per game in their 7-game losing streak that preceded that and now they face an angry Bolts club here. Tampa Bay has seen 7 of last 8 games total at least 7 goals as they continue to score well. The Lightning have allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 road games. Tampa has scored 4.5 goals per game last 8 games. The goals will fly in this one. OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Grand Canyon Lopes +6.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 7:10 ET - It is unlikely that A & M tops Houston as a double digit dog today. That said, it would not surprise me if Tennessee is the last team standing from the SEC entering the Sweet 16. Yes, another upset win for Grand Canyon is not out of the question here but we will grab the points as added insurance just in case. The fact is that the SEC was over-rated this season and we have seen that play out time and time again in this tourney. Even though the Vols are still standing they are just 1-1 ATS in the tourney after barely sneaking by Texas last night. As for the Crimson Tide they had lost 4 of 6 games before knocking off Charleston to open up the tourney. Yes, they won by double digits but they allowed 96 points to a Coastal Athletic Association team! Conversely, Grand Canyon enters this game having won 6 straight and 30 of 34 this season. Though they come from a weaker conference, I like the fact the Lopes put up an average of 75 ppg in their 4 games versus respectable non-conference foes like San Francisco, South Carolina, San Diego State and now St Mary's to begin the tourney with an upset. Also, they allowed just 71 ppg in those 4 games and one has to have a little concern over Alabama's lack of D in their opening win! Yes, the Tide can score well but they have allowed an AVERAGE of 94 ppg last 11 games! There is nothing "average" about that and this Lopes team has proven they can compete with teams from stronger conferences. This goes to the wire and an outright upset would not shock me in the least! GRAND CANYON +6.5 |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Panthers v. Flyers +135 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Sunday Philadelphia Flyers +135 vs Florida Panthers @ 6 ET - The Panthers are banged up and have lost 4 straight games! Florida has been outscored 16 to 6 during this stretch. Florida is overvalued here against a scrappy Flyers team that continues to battle to remain in a playoff position and got the win again over a tough Bruins team yesterday! Philly has enjoyed recent success against the Panthers too including winning both games this season. With Florida dealing with injuries and negative emotions while the Flyers are winning and have positive vibes stemming from winning 5 of last 7 on home ice. PHILADELPHIA +135 |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Oilers v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 -120 in Ottawa Senators vs Edmonton Oilers @ 6 ET - The Sens off a big 5-2 win at New Jersey and are tougher team when on home ice and should score well again here. The Oilers are also in a B2B situation but they lost 6-3 at Toronto last night. Edmonton had that great winning streak earlier this season but really have reverted back to their old ways more recently. That is, they still score quite well but continue to allow too many goals. The Oilers have allowed 3.1 goals per game last 23 games since their 16-game winning streak came to an end. The Senators had allowed 4 goals per game last 13 games before the 5-2 win last night. 5 straight Sens have totaled at least 7 goals and you can see why I am expecting today's game to follow suit as well. OVER 6.5 -120 in Ottawa |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Elche v. Levante OVER 2 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #202081: Spanish La Liga 2: Sunday OVER 2 -120 in Levante vs Eiche @ 1:30 ET - I like the odds of this match getting to 2-1 at least. Note that the last 3 times Levante has hosted Eiche each match totaled at least 2 goals and 2 of the 3 reached the 3 goal mark. Excellent line value here with this total available at 2 goals. Eiche is running hot right now and has won 4 straight matches and scored an average of 2 goals per match during this heater. They will not slow down here on the road but you also know that Levante is going to put up a fight on their home pitch. Note that Levante has scored 4 goals last 4 matches and they are at a critical position in the table so they really could do well to earn the full 3 points here. Entering Sunday's action, Levante is one of 7 clubs with between 44 and 49 points in the table. Knowing that Levante is going to struggle to stop a red hot Eiche side yet at home and at a critical stage the season, I see quite an attack from both clubs materializing in this one and an eventual 2-1 type match. OVER 2 -120 in Levante |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Colorado +4 v. Marquette | Top | 77-81 | Push | 0 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Sunday Colorado Buffaloes +4 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 12:10 ET - I am going to keep riding the Buffaloes. As I have stated in my recent write-ups, once they finally started winning road games their confidence sky-rocketed and they have carried that with them ever since they got on the late-season run following a much-needed road win. Colorado has never looked back and has now won 10 of 11 games. Now, of course, Marquette is a rock solid team. However, all the pressure is on them here as the #2 seed facing a #10 seed. Also, the Golden Eagles had lost 3 of 6 before the win over a #15 seed Western Kentucky team. It is certainly true those losses for Marquette were against top teams as it included #1 UConn and a ranked Creighton team as well. However, what I like about the Buffaloes is they have been so strong with shooting from all over the floor of late. They are playing with a ton of confidence and they are the stronger rebounding team. A big edge on the glass could also end up being the edge that decides this game. No points needed most likely but if the game is ultra tight late and swings the way of Marquette, the 4 points could come in handy. The Golden Eagles are known for being a solid shooting team but the Buffaloes are knocking down 3's nearly as well as any team in the country on the season. Also, Colorado is the better team at the free throw line too which can be a key in tight games when in tourney time like this especially. The points are quite generous considering all of the above. COLORADO +4 |
|||||||
03-24-24 | SD Eibar v. Real Valladolid OVER 2 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #202069: Spanish La Liga 2: Sunday OVER 2 -120 in Real Valladolid vs Eibar @ 11:15 AM ET - I like the odds of this match getting to 2-1 at least. Note that these two clubs have the fewest draws in the league this season with 6 and 7, respectively. Their blended draw rate, as a result, is only 21% as a result and that is very low for this league. Can we expect each club to score though? Absolutely! Real Valladolid is averaging 1.13 goals scored per match and Eibar is averaging 1.55 goals scored per match this season. Eibar is one of the top scoring clubs in the league plus each club is allowing 1 goal per match this season. This one has 2-1 written all over it. Real Valladolid has had 5 straight matches total at least 2 goals. Eibar has had their last 4 matches average 2.5 goals apiece. Also, the last 8 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 2 goals and the matches have averaged 3 goals apiece and 4 of them did reach at least the 3-goal mark. So this play, with the total at 2 goals, is testing a match-up run that is UNBEATEN last 8 and also PERFECT 4 in terms of winning overs! That run reaches 5 in a row here! OVER 2 -120 in Real Valladolid |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Gijon v. Amorebieta OVER 2 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #202065: Spanish La Liga 2: Sunday OVER 2 in Amorebieta vs Gijon @ 9 AM ET - Both clubs have scored in each of the last 3 meetings so we should get this match to 1-1. But what about the odds of a draw? Well, this clubs have a blended draw rate of only 30% this season. The odds favor at least a 2-1 final given the above plus the fact Gijon has gone 4 straight matches without a draw and Amorebieta has gone 3 straight matches without a draw. OVER 2 in Amorebieta |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #794: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Creighton Bluejays -4.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:40 ET - As I mentioned in my pick on Oregon over South Carolina, the Ducks have a great head coach and they had a huge coaching advantage in that game. However, now they take on a Bluejays team that also has an excellent head coach. Both Dana Altman and Greg McDermott are veteran coaches with a helluva winning track record long-term. In fact, Altman used to coach at Creighton and was there for a long period from the mid-90s through 2010. So what does this match-up come down to? Well, there are big edges for Creighton in this one as they have a cohesive group of players that have multiple seasons of experience together. That pays off in tougher match-ups like this one. As for Oregon, they rely heavily on a trio of guys that include a freshman plus a senior that played his first 3 years at South Carolina. Now Couisnard is off the huge game versus his former team but again, he and Shelstad and Dante don't have quite the same level of cohesiveness that this Bluejays team has with their guys having all played together for multiple seasons. That creates a bond in big game situations that does make a big difference. I also like the rebounding edge going to Creighton in this match-up as well. The seeding for these tournaments is not easy and is often debated but the fact is they do, for the most part, a damn good job. That said, a #3 seed laying just 4.5 points to a #11 seed is quite a solid value. It is not a mistake as the Ducks are on everyone's radar right now after the Pac-12 Tourney run but, the point is, it has created value in the marketplace. Here we take advantage! CREIGHTON -4.5 |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Texas +6.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #791: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Texas Longhorns +6.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 8 ET - Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes was the head coach at Texas for many years from '98 to 2015! That adds extra intrigue to an already intriguing match-up. The pressure this match-up is truly on the Volunteers as they are they higher seed and are expected by most to advance to the Sweet 16 (at the very least) this season. I love fading pressure-filled favorites that might be over-valued! Why would the Vols be over-valued a bit? Well the SEC has had a rough go of it in the tourney already. Auburn and Florida lost yesterday after Kentucky was one of 3 SEC teams that were beaten Thursday. The Wildcats were one of the biggest upsets thus far and they joined South Carolina and Mississippi State in exiting the tourney on the first day of it! This is contrary to the Big 12 which still has Baylor and Kansas and Houston and Iowa State as well as this Texas team still alive in the Big Dance. So one must remember that most of the Vols games the past few months, of course, have been against SEC competition which may not be as tough as some thought! When you look back at Tennessee non-conference action it includes losses to Tourney teams like Purdue and Kansas and North Carolina. Granted those are great teams but, the point is, do the Volunteers (from an over-rated SEC) really deserve to be favored by this much over a solid Texas team? In my opinion, absolutely not! Keep in mind, coach Barnes has a long history of his teams underachieving in March Madness. Of course they beat an outclassed Saint Peter's team to open things up but the Longhorns beat a solid Colorado State team by a double digit margin and held them to just 44 points. Look for this one to go down to the wire making the points invaluable. TEXAS +6.5 |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Kings +140 v. Magic | Top | 109-107 | Win | 140 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Saturday: Sacramento Kings Money Line +140 @ Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - Great spot to back the Kings off a loss and no points needed either in terms of the system in play for this one. The Kings are a perfect 6-0 SU the last 6 times they were off a loss in which they scored less than 110 points. That trend is in play here after Sacramento lost 109 to 102 at Washington. A loss to a bad Wizards team is an attention-getter for the Kings and I am sure they will respond big here. Yes, Orlando is on a hot streak and has been playing well. However, prior to the win over the Pelicans Thursday, the last 11 Magic wins had come against bad teams like Detroit (2), Charlotte (2), Toronto (2), Brooklyn (2), Washington and Utah. The Jazz are 29-41 and the combined record of those 5 Eastern Conference teams (the 5 worst in the conference) is 90-259. Yes, 90 wins and 259 losses! Now the Magic host a Kings team that is angry off a loss plus is 40-29 this season. Big difference in level of opponent here and I look for an upset win for the road dog in this one. SACRAMENTO +140 |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Senators v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in New Jersey Devils vs Ottawa Senators @ 7 ET - Ottawa has allowed an average of 5 goals per game last 4 games. All 4 games totaled at least 7 goals and this one will too. The Senators should take advantage of facing a Devils team having issues of their own. New Jersey expected to start Jake Allen in goal and he has been a pleasant surprise since coming to the Devils but his home GAA this season is still 3.60 and he is facing a Sens team with nothing to lose so they will be firing away here. The Devils are off B2B wins but this followed losses in 7 of 9 games! New Jersey has either scored or allowed 4 goals in 9 straight home games so look for the goals to fly here. The Devils have scored 4 and 5 goals, respectively, in their last 2 home games. Both teams score well here and Ottawa's streak of games totaling 7+ goals is set to make it 5 in a row here. OVER 6.5 in New Jersey |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Washington State +7 v. Iowa State | Top | 56-67 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #799: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Washington State Cougars +6.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 6:10 ET - Lot of value with the points in this one. The Cougars are 25-9 SU this season. Washington State has seen 4 of last 5 losses come by 6 or less points. Since the calendar flipped the page to the year 2024, only one time have the Cougars lost by more than 6 points! As for Iowa State, they are a strong team from the tough Big 12. However, the Cyclones averaged 66.8 ppg last 9 games of the regular season including conference tourney. The Cougars averaged 74 ppg their last 8 games before losing to Colorado in a low-scoring grinder in the Pac-12 Tourney. The point is that Iowa State does have a solid defense but this Washington State offense has been consistent and they just do not get blown out in games. The Cougars defense is not that far behind that of Iowa State's and also the underdog holds a big edge in this one in the rebounding department. The Cougars are also 4-0 SU this season in games decided by 4 or less points so this team knows how to win tight games. I do think we could see an outright upset here but will grab the generous points just in case. WASHINGTON STATE +6.5 |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Germany v. France OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #222681: International Friendly: Saturday OVER 2.5 -135 in France vs Germany @ 4 ET - Germany has work to do. They have struggled but they did beat France the last time these clubs met. That is added incentive for the hosts to put on quite the show here on their home pitch and Germany has been a bit out of sorts and with a number of lineup changes, could again have trouble protecting in front of their own goal. France will show them no mercy but the visitors are also hungry to get past their recent struggles and attack with proficiency in this one. They still have plenty of dangerous attacking talent but also are without their top goalie for this match. France will take advantage. Look for a 2-1 type battle in this one. OVER 2.5 -135 in France |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Brazil v. England OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #222677: International Friendly: Saturday OVER 2.5 +100 in England vs Brazil @ 3 ET - Brazil is a team in transition in terms of leadership on the pitch as well as a backline featuring a new look. That is bad news against an England team always loaded with attacking talent. England will be able to take advantage of the new-look backline of Brazil but I also do expect the visitors to get on the board as well. They are hungry for turning things around after a rare poor run of form. That said, they will be willing to take some chances here as they look to get their attack going again. The result should be at least a 2-1 final here given the situation with the Brazil and the fact England is so tough on their home pitch and should score multiple goals here. OVER 2.5 +100 in England |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Inter Miami v. New York Red Bulls OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #209829: Major League Soccer: Saturday OVER 2.5 -115 in New York vs Inter Miami @ 2 ET - We are getting some line value here because of Messi being out. Inter Miami has proven they can score plenty and have plenty of scoring options outside of just Messi. At the same time, New York also continues to get involved in high-scoring matches! The Red Bulls have had all 3 matches this month go over the total as each one totaled 3 goals. Inter Miami has had all 5 matches across all competitions this month total go over the total as all 5 totaled at least 4 goals! That means you have double perfect trends we can test here. 3-0 and 5-0 and plus there is even more value here because Inter Miami is without #1 goalie Drake Callender and that means little-used Carlos Dos Santos is getting the call here! Lets take advantage because the visitors are still ultra dangerous on the attack but will be more susceptible in goal now too! OVER 2.5 -115 in New York |
|||||||
03-23-24 | Belgium v. Rep. of Ireland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #222665: International Friendly: Saturday OVER 2.5 +110 in Ireland vs Belgium @ 1 ET - Even with Belgium down a few of their top players including Kevin DeBruyne, this club still is loaded with young attacking talent. Ireland has an interim manager and they are looking for a turnaround so I expect them to be quite aggressive here even though this is just a friendly. That said, look for them to get on the board but their a team in a bit of disarray and will have some defensive shortcomings and are outclassed here. Belgium should pull away as this match goes on as they have young guns continuing to look to prove themselves. This has the makings of a 2-1 final and I will grab the plus money on the over in this one. The hosts should make the net ripple once on their home pitch but they are outclassed here. OVER 2.5 +110 in Ireland |
|||||||
03-22-24 | Grand Canyon v. St. Mary's OVER 131 | Top | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
NCAA Friday OVER 131 in St Mary's Gaels vs Grand Canyon Lopes @ 10:05 ET - Grand Canyon has quite a resume this season even though they come from a weaker conference. The Lopes scoring numbers are no fluke. This team can run and gun. They only had one OT game this season and that one was 78-78 in regulation so, the point is, their scoring average has not been overly inflated by OT games and this team is averaging 80 points per game on the season! Now of course they are not expected to get to that range facing a tough St Mary's team that is sound defensively, to say the least. However, Grand Canyon should certainly score quite well here. This is what I was referring to when I mention their "resume" or "body of work" this season. Note that the Lopes put up 76 on San Francisco, 68 on South Carolina and 79 on San Diego State! They won 2 of those 3 games and the lone loss was by just 7 points. 2 of those 3 teams made the Big Dance and the other made the NIT after a very solid season. The point is that Grand Canyon is no weakling even though they come from one of the weakest conferences in college basketball. The fact is that the Lopes have proven they can score on solid teams too. The trouble for them is they will not be able to stop St Mary's here. The Gaels are a solid West Coast Conference team that only had one OT game this season and they averaged 74 ppg on the year. They also have been red hot with wins in 18 of last 19 games! The Gaels averaged 81.5 ppg in their last 8 wins. They are as hot as ever on the offensive end and Grand Canyon has enough scoring production up and down the lineup that they will remain competitive here. The spread on this game is only about 5 points which tells you the odds makers expect a tighter game but this Lopes team is not going to hang around because of their defense it will be because they have solid offensive production. Grand Canyon has scored at least 67 points in 32 of their 33 games this season. St Mary's favored by 5 for a reason and that would put this total in the 140 range. 72 to 67 for example. I just can not see the Gaels failing to get to the 70 mark here and feel this spread is a rather small one for a reason. This one goes down to the wire which also means plenty of opportunity for late fouling as well as jacking up threes. OVER 131 in St Mary's |
|||||||
03-22-24 | TCU -3.5 v. Utah State | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
NCAA Friday TCU Horned Frogs -3.5 vs Utah State Aggies @ 9:55 ET - The Mountain West teams are already falling in this tourney. Utah State is no slouch for sure but TCU played in the brutal Big 12 this season and this battle-tested Horned Frogs hold the edge in terms of strength of schedule the way I see it. Also, note that the Aggies went only 3-5 against the other MWC teams that won 24 or more games this season - Colorado State, San Diego State, New Mexico and Nevada. Just like Texas knocked off Colorado State yesterday, this is another spot where a solid Big 12 team is going to knock off a MWC foe. Keep in mind, Nevada also lost yesterday to the #3 team in the Atlantic Ten. I am just as sold on this MWC team being as strong as some contend it is. At the same time there is no questioning the Big 12 was a powerhouse conference this season made even stronger with the additions of Houston and Cincinnati this season. The Horned Frogs just got hammered by a great Houston team by 15 to get knocked out of the Big 12 Tourney. But including 3-0 this season and dating back to last season, TCU is 4-0 L4 times they have entered a game off loss by at least a dozen point margin. By the way, all 4 of those wins by at least a dozen points and the line here on this one is available at 3.5 at the time of this posting. Lay it! TCU -3.5 |
|||||||
03-22-24 | Pelicans +136 v. Heat | Top | 111-88 | Win | 136 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA New Orleans Pelicans +135 @ Miami Heat @ 8:10 ET - So the Pelicans are in a B2B and have an injury issue with Brandon Ingram being out. However, the Heat have issues too with Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love both out plus Bam Adebayo is questionable. With New Orleans off a loss last night at Orlando, they will be fired up about bouncing back here. The Pelicans are a perfect 3-0 L3 times when off a loss. New Orleans is also a perfect 3-0 L3 times when they are on the road and coming off a loss. Overall, the Pelicans had won 16 of 21 games prior to the loss to the Magic last night. The Heat are off a win at Cleveland but had lost 5 of 7 games before that and the two victories were against a Pistons team that is one of the league's worst. The home team is just 1-5 in Miami's last 6 games and the Heat are coming home off a lengthy road trip. Oftentimes that first game back is the toughest and teams come out a bit flat. Miami is 12-13 against Western Conference teams this season. New Orleans was 16-8 this season against Eastern Conference teams prior to the loss last night. You have an East-West dichotomy here plus the Pelicans are 8 games over .500 in road games this season while the Heat are just 2 games over .500 in home games this season. You can see why we have so much value here with the money line road dog. Grab it! No points needed. NEW ORLEANS +135 |
|||||||
03-22-24 | Penguins v. Stars OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Friday OVER 6.5 in Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8 ET - The Stars will start Oettinger here and he has been very inconsistent. In fact, prior to allowing 2 goals in his most recent start, Oettinger had allowed 4 or more goals in 3 of 4 starts. Dallas has seen 5 of its last 7 games total at least 7 goals. The Penguins have also been trending toward higher-scoring games as they have seen 4 straight games total at least 7 goals. The Penguins are still alive in the race for a playoff spot but every game so important now. They will push hard on the attack here as a result but Pittsburgh has allowed 4.3 goals per game last 11 games. This one looks like one of those wild non-conference match-ups ending up with at least a 4-3 final. OVER 6.5 in Dallas |
|||||||
03-22-24 | Colorado +1.5 v. Florida | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Colorado Buffaloes +1.5 vs Florida Gators @ 4:30 ET - I have been riding the Buffaloes hot streak for awhile now and I will not stop now! We saw the SEC struggle yesterday as 3 teams already got knocked out including #3 Kentucky upset by a #14 seed! The only SEC winner yesterday was Tennessee and that was a #15 versus #2 mismatch. As for the Pac-12, they are rolling. Note that Utah also advanced in the NIT and here in the NCAA, Arizona and Washington State and Oregon all advanced. Colorado has won 9 of 10 games and the only loss was to the Ducks who have a great coach in Altman and know how to win at Tourney time. They showed that gain yesterday against South Carolina. So no shame in that one loss for the Buffaloes last 10 games and once this Buffs team started proving they can win away from home, their confidence level was boosted greatly. This team is truly starting to believe and is playing with a ton of confidence. That will lead the way again in this one and I look for Florida to struggle again on the defensive end. Yes, the Gators can put up big points but this Florida team has allowed at least 79 points in 10 of last 12 games. This is the time of year when defense really matters. I know the Gators offense is strong but their points against numbers leave a lot to be desired. As for the Buffaloes, they have allowed 58 points or less in 4 of last 5 games and that included solid foes like Boise State, Utah and Washington State. Both teams should score well here but in the end, this Colorado team certainly appears more capable of getting enough stops for the win. COLORADO +1.5 |
|||||||
03-22-24 | Northern Ireland v. Romania OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #222629: International Friendly: Friday OVER 2 -145 in Romania vs Northern Ireland @ 3:45 ET - The ability to have a 2 here, even at extra juice, is a huge value as 2 is such a key number in soccer totals. Romania is a solid money line favorite here at home but I also foresee an aggressive Northern Ireland side making the net ripple in this one. Hence, I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. Note that Northern Ireland shutout Romania once in the last 5 meetings but in the other 4 meetings Romania scored an average of 1.5 goals. Also, Northern Ireland has scored a goal in each of the two most recent meetings. 4 of last 6 Northern Ireland matches have totaled at least 2 goals and the 4 that did actually averaged 4 goals apiece! Romania has scored at least one goal in 12 of last 14 matches across all competitions and averaged scoring 2.3 goals per match in those dozen matches. Given the above, you can see why I am looking for a 2-1 type match here and we have the added value of this total at 2 goals readily available in the marketplace. OVER 2 -145 in Romania |
|||||||
03-22-24 | Scotland v. Netherlands OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Rotation #222645: International Friendly: Friday OVER 2.5 -120 in Netherlands vs Scotland @ 3:45 ET - The last meeting was also a friendly and was a 2-2 draw. I expect a similar result here. 10 of last 12 Netherlands matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals. In just looking at their last 25 matches, Netherlands has scored in all but ONE of the 25 and averaged 2.2 goals scored per match. Scotland has seen 14 of last 19 matches total at least 3 goals. Scotland has scored an average of 1.8 goals per match in their last 25 matches. Given all of the above, you can see why I expect to see the goals to fly here in an international friendly that may not feature intense defense. Another 2-2 entertaining draw would not surprise me in the least. OVER 2.5 -120 in Netherlands |
|||||||
03-22-24 | Czech Republic v. Norway OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Rotation #222633: International Friendly: Friday OVER 2.5 in Norway vs Czech Republic @ 1 ET - Historically there has been scoring from each club in each of the last 3 meetings and 3 of the last 4 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals. Norway has scored an average of 3 goals in their last 7 matches across all competitions and they are on their home pitch here. Czech Republic has one embarrassing shutout loss in last 8 matches across all competitions but scored an average of 2 goals in the other 7 matches. It does look like Norway should have both Haaland and Odegaard available for this one which further boosts their attacking power on their home pitch. Even without them I would still like the over here given the above scoring numbers for each of these clubs and the fact that this match is a friendly and could be lacking in defensive intensity. OVER 2.5 in Norway |
|||||||
03-22-24 | Northwestern +4 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 77-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Northwestern Wildcats +4 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 12:15 ET - These are two very good offenses but what I like about the Wildcats here is they actually play defense quite well for extended stretches while the Owls almost never do. Additionally we have 4 points to work with here too. I feel this is a fantastic value for grabbing Northwestern and the points. The Wildcats enter this one having won 6 of 10 games. In those 10 games they had one high-scoring loss to Iowa 87-80 (one outlier) but allowed an average of only 64 points in the other 9 games! Conversely, FAU is 5-3 L8 games and there was no outlier as they allowed 77 points in these 8 games and consistently allowed big points. In a win or go home game in the NCAA Tourney against two teams most experts view as equal, I am happy to grab the better defensive team and the 4 points! Also, the last two losses for Florida Atlantic were to a Memphis team that lost 8 of 15 games to wrap the season and also to a Temple team that went 5-13 in conference action this season. Northwestern's last 3 losses were to Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin! All 3 of those are Big Dance teams and the Hawkeyes and Spartans advance already with wins yesterday while the Badgers are favored to win today on Friday as well. All signs above are pointing to the fact that the Owls are over-valued here and the Wildcats are undervalued! I will gladly take the generous points here as added insurance though I am making this wager expecting an outright underdog upset win. NORTHWESTERN +4 |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Blackhawks v. Ducks OVER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6 in Anaheim Ducks vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 10 ET - Both these teams have been allowing a lot of goals. So even though the Ducks have not been scoring great, I do look for Anaheim to get going here. As for the Blackhawks, they have been better in the offensive zone of late. These teams last met a week ago and that one totaled 9 goals! Chicago is actually 4-3 last 7 games and has scored an average of 4 goals per game during this stretch! The problem for the Blackhawks is similar to the Ducks - they can not stop anyone. Chicago has allowed 4 goals per game last 10 games. Anaheim has allowed 5 goals per game during their current 7-game losing streak. Given the poor defense and goalie work that these two have been displaying, this total set at 6 goals is a great value. OVER 6 in Anaheim |
|||||||
03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 9:40 ET - Give credit where credit is due and NC State had a helluva run through the ACC Tourney. However, they were fortunate to force OT against a late-game mistake-prone Virginia team. Then they beat rival North Carolina despite the Tar Heels having 16 more shot attempts from the field in that game. Also, the Pack made 6 of 8 threes while UNC took 30 threes but made only 8 of them! Again, give the Wolfpack credit but the fact remains both the Cavaliers and Heels played a role in giving victories away in each game. The result is line value here. NC State is a little overvalued now and Texas Tech, knocked out the Big 12 Tourney by Houston (one of the nations best), is now undervalued as a result. The Red Raiders had a better regular season than NC State but the Wolfpack got hot in the Tourney. This is a new tourney now however! Though Texas Tech has a new coach this season in Grant McCasland, he has a 375-131 career coaching record and has had success every step of the way no matter where he has been and what level the program was. Junior College, Division II and now Division 1 for the past 8 seasons. McCasland is a winner. Kevin Keatts has been solid for NC State but Keatts is 0-4 SU all time in NCAA tournament action - twice with NC St and twice with UNC Wilmington. 11 of 14 Wolfpack SU losses have been by at least 4 points this season! 19 of 23 Red Raiders wins have been by 6 or more points this season. Lay it! TEXAS TECH -4.5 |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Pelicans v. Magic +120 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 120 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Orlando Magic +120 vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:10 ET - The Pelicans are a short road favorite here and I understand the line but this has opened up a great home dog opportunity I will not pass up. Orlando was a .500 team in late January! They have since gone 17-5! Also, the Magic have won 7 of last 8 home games. As for the Pelicans, I have plenty of respect for them and they have been hot also. However, New Orleans - with very few exceptions - has struggled on the road in most match-ups when facing winning and healthy teams. Orlando is a winning team and is healthy right now and they are playing well. Pelicans have road losses to the Mavericks, Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets, Lakers and Pacers since the calendar flipped the page to 2024. How do the Magic compare to the blended home records of those teams? Well Orlando has 24 home wins this season and those 6 teams have an average of 25.5 home wins this season. You see my point? The Magic at home and healthy are right within range of those teams that the Pelicans have losses to the last couple months when traveling. I am grabbing the home dog value here. OLRANDO +120 |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Flyers +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -120 @ Carolina Hurricanes @ 7 ET - The Hurricanes are playing really well and have won 4 straight games. However, prior to a comfortable 4-0 win in most recent home game, the Canes actually had only 10 wins by a multi-goal margin in their last 27 home games. The Flyers are a scrappy team that is tough to beat by a multi-goal margin so this is actually a great spot for a dog puck line play. Philly, ever since the All-Star break, has had just 4 losses by more than 1 goal in 19 games! So, as you can see, in looking at Hurricanes home games and Flyers games overall, the odds favor a tight game here in which the Flyers hang around all game long as they so often do. They have a legit shot at the post-season and continue to play with a lot of energy and passion even as they battle through injuries. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -120 |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Colorado State v. Texas -2 | Top | 44-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Texas Longhorns -2 vs Colorado State Rams @ 6:50 ET - For whatever reason, Virginia was not ready when they faced Colorado State. It was an embarrassment and the Cavaliers offense was pathetic and they missed the last 15 field goal attempts they took in the first half of that game. That was a 1st half in which they ended up scoring just 14 points. That is an embarrassment and while some credit goes to the Rams, the ugly margin of that game had a lot to do with a Cavs team that was ill-prepared. That is not happening again here. Now Colorado State faces a Longhorns team that will be ready and that plays in one of the toughest conferences in the land. The Big 12 has 6 Top 25 teams and the MWC has 2. The Mountain West is a solid conference but this goes to show how the markets can sometimes get a big misaligned on a game and that is the situation we have here in my opinion. The Longhorns off a tough tight loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Tourney and UT is 9-2 SU this season when they are off a loss. As for Colorado State, they just beat a Cavaliers team that gave an embarrassing effort. Prior to that they did have a nice win over a solid Nevada team but went 3-4 in their other 7 games since the 21st of February. Those 3 wins were against 3 of the bottom-feeders in MWC - Wyoming, San Jose State and Air Force. Those 3 teams went a combined 12-42 in the MWC this season. The Rams are a solid team...but they are not as strong as the Longhorns! This is a HUGE line VALUE! Lay the bargain number here! TEXAS -2 |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday: Oregon Ducks +1.5 -120/-125 or Pick'em -110 vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 4 ET - Take a look at the other 11 vs 6 match-ups on the card today. The 6 seed is favored solidly in each one with Texas Tech -5 and BYU -9.5 so the odds makers must be crazy here with this line near a pick'em, right? Of course not! This game is priced atypical to an 11 seed vs 6 seed match-up with good reason. For starters, the only loss that red hot Colorado has in last 10 games was to this Oregon team in the Pac-12 Championship. That is the same Buffaloes team that just knocked off a solid Boise State last night in the First Four to advance. I know South Carolina just got embarrassed by Auburn in the SEC Tourney and would like to respond here. However, the Gamecocks also got drilled by Auburn in the regular season plus lost AT HOME to Tennessee in the regular season plus got embarrassed at Alabama too. Those are 3 of the best teams in the SEC so against strong teams, South Carolina has had some major slip-ups with 3 losses ALL by 27 or more points! That is the sign of a soft team when you can get beat that bad. I am hearing the talk that now SC is playing with a chip on their shoulder here. I don't care. They are playing a tough Ducks team and a chip on your shoulder is not what wins games. This is the first time the Gamecocks have been in the tourney since 2017. Oregon did lose both regular season games with Arizona this season but then knocked them out in the Conference Tourney. Also, same thing with how their season against Colorado went. They also split with Washington State and Utah which are the other 20+ win teams from the Pac-12. The Ducks have had good post-season success in terms of advancing whether NCAA or NIT. Also if you had to pick a coach for your team in College Hoops would you rather have Dana Altman (27 straight winning seasons!) or Lamont Paris (3 ugly seasons in 6 in his career)? Altman is one of the winningest active coaches in NCAA basketball and this is a mismatch in the coaching department in my opinion and yes the Ducks have the talent on the floor to match South Carolina. Don't let this line fool you! OREGON +1.5 -120/-125 or Pick'em -110 |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Estonia v. Poland OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #225417: Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals: Thursday OVER 2.75 -115 in Poland vs Estonia @ 3:45 ET - This total holding at 2.75 in some spots is leading to solid line value here as there are multiple indicators here for 3 or more goals in this one. Poland is so strong on their home pitch and are a heavy favorite here with good reason. They also have played much better since Probierz took the managerial reins from Santos. Poland fully capable of getting this one over the total all by themselves but I do expect Estonia to take advantage of a very aggressive Poland attack and so the big underdogs should make the net ripple once on the counterattack. Estonia is heavily outclassed here so they have no choice but to take some chances but this will leave them vulnerable in front of their own net as well! Poland is a 2-goal favorite on the goal line with good reason and will be relentless on the attack as they have been reminded of their most recent match-up with Estonia being a 1-0 loss back in 2018. This is payback and look for at least a 3-1 final. OVER 2.75 -115 in Poland |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Kazakhstan v. Greece OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #225409: Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals: Thursday OVER 2.5 +110 in Greece vs Kazakhstan @ 3:45 ET - This is a great spot or an over. Kazakhstan has played well and is playing with a lot of confidence right now. That makes for a dangerous dog. However, Greece is a heavy 3 to 1 money line favorite for a reason here. Speaking of 3 to 1, that is the type of match I expect here and 2-1 would get the job done just as well. Take advantage of the plus money available on the over 2.5 here as Greece has scored an average of 2.2 goals in last 5 matches. Also, Kazakhstan has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches and all 4 totaled at least 3 goals. Look for this run of overs to reach 5 in a row here! OVER 2.5 +110 in Greece |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Akron +12.5 v. Creighton | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #739: NCAA Thursday Akron Zips +12.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 1:30 ET - Akron undervalued here and Creighton overpriced in my opinion. The Zips come from a weaker conference and do have 10 losses on the season. However, this is a solid team defensively and I expect the Bluejays to struggle to truly pull away in this game as a result. Note that Akron had only two blowout losses in their 10 defeats this season. The other 8 losses were all by a single digit margin and, in fact, by an average margin of just 3.6 points per game! Creighton, of course, is the stronger team and from the better conference. However, another key with the Bluejays year in and year out is they tend to shoot much better at home. Of course this is a neutral site game and note that Creighton blew away the weakling Hoyas and Blue Demons at Georgetown and DePaul, respectively but look at their other last 10 games away from home. The Jays went just 4-6 SU in those 10 games and also 3 of the 4 wins were by an average margin of just 4 points! This game is going to be a lot closer than you might be expect for a 14 seed vs 3 seed match-up! Groce is a solid head coach and was at Illinois in the Big Ten before coming to Akron. He has already enjoyed great success with the Zips. They were also in the Big Dance two years ago as a 13 seed and so they faced a 4 seed. They lost that game by just 4 points to a UCLA team that went on to the Sweet 16. I just can not envision a blowout here and am confidently grabbing the big points in this one. AKRON +12.5 |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Luxembourg v. Georgia OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #225401: Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals: Thursday OVER 2 -125 in Georgia vs Luxembourg @ 1 ET - This total has dropped from 2.25 to 2 because each club is without one attacker. However, there is still enough attacking talent on each side and so this is a value spot for a play on the over with this total held down at 2 goals. Luxembourg has a knack for lower-scoring matches but Georgia will dictate the flow of this match on their home pitch. That said, note that Georgia has seen each of last 6 matches total at least 3 goals and these 6 have averaged 5 goals apiece! Look for this run of overs to reach 7 in a row here! OVER 2 -125 in Georgia |
|||||||
03-20-24 | 76ers +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 102-115 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - If you look at the board tonight there are 8 games and only 3 of them are match-ups in which both of the teams have a winning record. The Heat / Cavs appears to be an even match-up and Cleveland is favored by about their home court edge. Makes sense. The Celtics are a decent sized favorite over the Bucks but Boston is an insane 31-3 at home this season so that line makes sense as well. This Philly / Phoenix game is the outlier in my opinion. The Suns just have not been playing well enough to justify this large of a line. The Sixers, even while dealing with injuries, remain very scrappy and they have made some changes in their lineup/playing rotation of late that are already starting to pay dividends. That said, the 8.5 points here appears to be on the high side. The Suns have won just 6 of 13 games and the average margin of victory in the 6 wins, not including OT points, was just 6.5 points. Phoenix just has NOT been blowing teams away of late. The Sixers are just 5-5 L10 games but 4 of the 5 losses by a single digit margin! Don't be surprised when this one goes down to the wire. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 |
|||||||
03-20-24 | Colorado -2.5 v. Boise State | Top | 60-53 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #703: NCAA First Four Colorado Buffaloes -2.5 vs Boise State Broncos @ 9:10 ET - The Mountain West is solid but the Pac-12 is even tougher. I have plenty of respect for the Broncos but the Buffaloes really seemed to turn their season a dime when they finally figured out how to win away from home. Once they did that their confidence level exploded and they are not a different team. Yes they bowed out of the conference tourney when they lost to Oregon but the Ducks are a strong team. As solid as Boise State is, they lost all 3 HOME games against the other 3 teams that finished along with them in the top 4 of the MWC. The point is, if you can't win at home against the best teams in your conference, how can you expected to win in a neutral site game against an equally strong (if not stronger) Pac-12 team playing its best basketball of the season? Note that the Buffaloes won 3 of the 4 home games against the other 20+ win teams in their conference. The Buffs had won 8 straight games before the Ducks beat them by 7 in the Pac-12 Tourney final. Note that Colorado lost the turnover battle 13 to 3 in that game and were outscored 23 to 0 in terms of points off turnovers! Given that it is amazing they only lost the game by 7. They will clean things up again for this one and when they play clean basketball, they have been tough to beat for many weeks now. They get this win and cover the small number. COLORADO -2.5 |
|||||||
03-20-24 | San Francisco +6 v. Cincinnati | Top | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #715: NIT Tourney: Wednesday San Francisco Dons +6 @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 9 ET - These Bearcats started the season 12-2 but went 8-12 from then until now! The Dons have as many wins in just 12 games as the Cats had in those 20 games. Indeed, San Francisco is on an 8-4 run and the kicker is that one loss was to a 20-win Santa Clara team and the other 3 losses were against ranked teams - St Mary's and Gonzaga! This SF team is a solid shooting team that plays well on the defensive end. The Bearcats will be in a war here just to win this game let alone cover the spread. That said, I love the points here as Cincy's most recent wins included against a Kansas team that was without the two top scorers in the Big 12! Also, Cats won against Kansas State but were down in that game with just 10 seconds to go when they hit the game winner in the 1-point win. The other two wins in the past 4 weeks were against a West Virginia team that went 9-23 overall and 4-14 in Big 12 action. This Bearcats team is over-rated in this spot and the Dons having to travel to Cincinnati for this game is no big deal when they have had so much time off to prepare for this game! Grab the generous points. SAN FRANCISCO +6 |
|||||||
03-20-24 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6 in Washington Capitals vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:35 ET - I understand this total starting to move from a 6.5 to a 6 but, at the same time, I am happy to fade the move. Yes, the Capitals have been getting some solid play in goal and defensively but this Maple Leafs club is very dangerous in the offensive zone. Also, Toronto is off a loss at Philly last night (had the Flyers +115 here yesterday!) and the Leafs will be fired up to respond. However, one issue for Toronto is no goalie other than Samsonov has started in 2 weeks now. So the options for Toronto here are a rusty goalie or a guy playing the 2nd night of a back to back who also just allowed 4 goals last night. This Toronto team is prolific offensively however and 7 of last 9 Leafs road games have totaled at least 6 goals. Also, the Capitals have averaged 4.6 goals scored in their last 5 home games. 5 of their last 6 games at home have all totaled at least 7 goals and this one will too! I know this game will have playoff intensity as the Caps are fighting for their playoff lives but the reasons above are why this game will still see plenty of scoring. Look for each to get to the 3-goal mark here and, as a result, at least a 7-goal final in this one. OVER 6 in Washington |
|||||||
03-20-24 | Grambling State v. Montana State -3.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #702: NCAA First Four Montana State Bobcats -3.5 vs Grambling State Tigers @ 6:40 ET - This is essentially a play based on conference strength. The fact is that the SWAC that Grambling hails from is absolutely the worst conference in Division 1 basketball. The Big Sky is certainly not a big conference but it is a much stronger conference than the SWAC. That said, the fact the Bobcats have a much stronger offense than the Tigers plus the fact that they faced a tougher overall schedule plus the fact that Grambling is in the Big Dance for the first time ever...it all adds up to a solid play on the favorite in this one! We are getting some line value here because people see the Cats were just a .500 team in the regular season and finished only 5th in their conference. However, Grambling finished first in the worst conference in Division 1. Lay the small number here with confidence. MONTANA STATE -3.5 |
|||||||
03-20-24 | Chesterfield v. Halifax Town OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #226001: English National League: Wednesday OVER 2.5 -115 in Halifax Town vs Chesterfield @ 3:45 ET - Great match-up for goals here. Chesterfield is on the road and looking to wrap up the league title here. They are the leading scorer in the league and are averaging 2.5 goals scored per match. However, on the road they are allowing 1.5 goals per match this season and have been far from water-tight defensively. That spells at least some trouble here as Halifax has turned their season around and moved up the table thanks to wins in 6 of their last 7. In those 6 victories, Halifax has averaged 2 goals scored per win! Overall, Halifax Town is on a run in which 5 straight matches at home have totaled at least 3 goals! Look for this over run to make it 6 in a row here! The last time these clubs met the match totaled 5 goals and a similar result would not surprise me in the least! Chesterfield has had 6 of last 7 road matches total at least 3 goals and those 7 matches averaged 4 goals apiece! OVER 2.5 -115 in Halifax Town |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves +7.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Denver Nuggets @ 9 ET - Yes the Timberwolves have a cluster of injuries at the big man position. However, the last time these teams met Jokic had a solid game for the Nuggets and yet the Wolves still won the game by 22 points. Outside of Jokic, the Nuggets mostly play a "small ball" lineup which is the same type of lineup Minny will be playing here because of injuries to their bigs. So, the point is that Jokic will again "get his" in this game but I don't see that translating to a huge road win here. Minny is tough at home and this is a key divisional battle and they will not just "lay down" here because they are without Towns and Gobert. In fact, you might even see a more feisty effort from the Wolves here as a result! Look for Minnesota to be aggressive here as it is the wounded dog that often bites the hardest. This is just too many points to give the Timberwolves when at home and hosting the defending champs and a division rival. Playing their first home game in two weeks, Minnesota is absolutely going to make the most of it here! They are getting as many as 7.5 points here as of very early game day morning! We'll take it! MINNESOTA (+) |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Colorado State v. Virginia +3 | Top | 67-42 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #672: NCAA Tuesday Virginia Cavaliers (+) vs Colorado State Rams @ 9:10 ET - Give me the 3 points here. Maybe I have a bit of the old "East Coast bias" but I have seen others that are unbiased do have the ACC as a significantly stronger conference than the Mountain West. Note that the only two teams that Virginia finished behind in the final ACC standings were North Carolina and Duke. Those are two teams rank in the top dozen teams in the nation. Also, the team that won the ACC Tourney (NC State) is a team Virginia should have beaten but inexplicably made a couple key mistakes late that allowed the Wolfpack to tie it up and force OT. It was a gut-wrenching loss but also the Cavs can't wait to get back on the floor to make up for that here. The fact NC State then went and upset North Carolina in much easier fashion after they should have lost outright to Virginia also says a lot. This Cavs team is very well coached and annually has one of the best defenses in the nation. Colorado State is certainly a solid team but they are over-rated here. The top teams in the MWC are only in the #20 to #25 positions in the nation. Also, the Rams finished tied for 6th in the MWC while the Cavaliers were 3rd in the ACC! The Cavaliers play ugly basketball so a lot of guys don't like them. However, this time of year, that ugly defensive style can play hell with opponents and I am grabbing the underdog line value here with an angry Cavs team that is still pissed from that inexcusable loss to NC State. They will not be denied here in my opinion but grab the points for added insurance. VIRGINIA (+) |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Avalanche v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 104 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 +105 in St Louis Blues vs Colorado Avalanche @ 8 ET - Colorado is one of the highest scoring teams in the league and they have won 6 straight games and, not including OT goals, have scored an average of 4 goals per game in those victories. The Avs have allowed 3 goals per game in last 4 road games and I am sure the Blues will put up a fight in this one. St Louis has won 4 straight games and scored 3.5 goals per game in this 4-game winning streak. Also, at home, the Blues have won 5 straight games and averaged 3.2 goals scored per game. I know the Blues are getting solid goaltending of late but the Avs offense is just too much. At the same time though, I do expect St Louis to continue playing confident hockey and putting the puck in the back of the net on their home ice. They catch Avs off a big win at Edmonton over Connor McDavid and company. Their defensive play may not be at its best in this one. OVER 6.5 +105 in St Louis |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers +115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 115 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday Philadelphia Flyers +115 vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7 ET - The Flyers are out for revenge here. Tortorella is back on the bench and they just fell short in a wild 6-5 loss to Boston after an ugly home loss to the Leafs last week by a 6-2 count. Philly will be much better here on home ice and in revenge mode coming off such an ugly loss in front of their own fans. The Flyers are dealing with injuries to defense but are still battling hard and have been even in shots on goal in their recent games with the Bruins and Maple Leafs. Philly has scored 10 goals in their last 3 games and the Leafs big win over the Flyers is their only win by more than 1 goal in their last 7 games. In that stretch Toronto also had an OT win, a SO win, 3 losses and one other win by just 1 goal. The point is that the Leafs have been far from dominating and the Flyers are 3-0 the L3 times they entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. PHILADELPHIA +115 |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Boston College v. Providence -3 | Top | 62-57 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #676: NIT Tuesday Providence Friars (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 7 ET - Yes the Friars are expected to be without leading scorer Carter for this one but this line has fallen too low in my opinion. It is down to a -3 and, even without Carter, the Friars at home are stronger than these Eagles. Also, I feel Providence is one of a handful of teams that is out to prove the Big East was robbed in terms of only 3 Big East teams making the Big Dance. The Friars are hungry to prove they were one of the teams wronged and I expect a very strong performance here at home. Note that is what not that long ago that Boston College had just been obliterated by Pittsburgh and then sat at 15-14 on the season and just 6-12 in ACC games! I know the Eagles then won 4 straight, including 2 in the ACC tourney, before bowing out against Virginia. However, other than the impressive over Clemson, the other 3 wins were against a horrible Louisville team that finished 3-17 in ACC action and a Miami team that slumped badly and lost 10 straight games to the end the season. The point is the Eagles had a helluva great game against the Tigers but I am not sold on a team whose other recent wins were against bad teams considering they were also just 6-12 against conference opposition not too long ago. This Friars team had won 6 of 3 before a loss to Marquette in the Big East tourney and 3 of their last 4 losses were against the Golden Eagles and UConn - both of whom are in the Big Dance of course. Watch the Friars rise up here, even without Carter. PROVIDENCE (-) |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Wagner +3.5 v. Howard | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #669: NCAA Tuesday Wagner Seahawks (+) vs Howard Bison @ 6:40 ET - Give me the 3.5 points here. If you watch the talking heads speak about this game or read preview articles you will see many people quoted about Wagner having a 7-man rotation and being short-handed because they are down two key players. Guess what? They played nearly the entirety of the season without those two players. Those two players played a combined 12 games - so an average of 6 games out of 31 on the season. In other words, this is 100% a NON-factor here. Now it would be a factor later in the tourney but there is no "later in the tourney" for either one of these teams. Whether Wagner or Howard advances either one will get blasted by North Carolina Thursday. However, I do like Wagner to advance as they ride the positive momentum of their conference tourney run. Also, most rankings do give a slight edge to the NEC over the MEAC in terms of conference power rankings. I personally feel the edge is bigger. The NEC is a little more significantly stronger than the MEAC in my opinion. I am well aware that Wagner had a sub-par regular season but they had to beat the top 3 teams in their conference (36-12 combined NEC record!) to get here! As for Howard, they had a ridiculous 3-point shooting effort in beating top seeded Norfolk State in their conference tourney but had the added benefit of their other two games against teams with a combined 13-15 conf record and overall 26-38 record. If they had faced a tougher team after upsetting Norfolk State they would have likely lost. Wagner thinks they are invincible right now. That makes for a dangerous dog. The way these two teams are playing right now, Howard is absolutely no better than Wagner. Also, the Seahawks are allowing just 54 ppg last 4 games. The Bison allowing 71 ppg L4 games. The Hawks stay hot! WAGNER (+) |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Notts County v. Bradford City OVER 2.75 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 50 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #201189: English League Two: Tuesday OVER 2.75 -119 in Bradford City vs Notts County @ 3:45 ET - Notts County won the first meeting this season 4-2 which sets this up as a solid revenge spot for Bradford City. While I certainly do expect the hosts to respond here, they also have allowed 7 goals in their last 2 matches so they will again struggle to slow down Notts County in this one. Notts County consistently gets involved in high-scoring matches and so we have excellent line value here with this total available at less than 3 goals. Note that 6 of last 8 Notts County matches have totaled at least 3 goals and those 6 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Going further back it is an incredible 17 of 21 run in terms of Notts County matches totaling at least 3 goals and I am happy to put this 81% run to the test here! OVER 2.75 -119 in Bradford City |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Almirante Brown v. Gimnasia y Tiro OVER 1.75 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rotation #210705: Argentine Nacional B: Tuesday 10* OVER 1.75 -116 in Gimnasia y Tiro vs Almirante Brown @ 3 ET - Gimnasia y Tiro has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches and averaged 1 goal scored per match during this stretch. Almirante Brown has seen 3 of last 4 matches total at least 2 goals and 2 of those 3 reached the 3 goal mark. We got solid line value with the low total posted on this match and we will not hesitate to get involved here. 10* OVER 1.75 -116 in Gimnasia y Tiro |
|||||||
03-18-24 | Knicks +165 v. Warriors | Top | 119-112 | Win | 165 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Monday New York Knicks +165 @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - Revenge game for the Knicks as they just at home to the Warriors less than 3 weeks ago. New York has very quietly won 3 straight and 5 of 7 games! They also catch Golden State off a big win over the Lakers too. Prior to that victory the Warriors had lost 3 of 4 and their only win was against a horrible Spurs team - and they also lost to San Antonio in that stretch too! Also, GS actually has lost 3 of last 4 home games so I feel we have exceptional line value with getting the Knicks on the money line at a solid comeback price! New York has been playing great defense and has allowed an average of only 83 ppg last 5 games! Golden State has allowed 116.8 ppg last 5 games! HUGE difference. Now, of course, the Warriors are the better team offensively but we are getting to the time of year when teams win games with defense and I like the Knicks in a revenge spot and catching GS off a key divisional win. No points needed. Knicks win outright. NEW YORK KNICKS +165 |
|||||||
03-18-24 | Sabres v. Seattle Kraken OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 5.5 in Seattle Kraken vs Buffalo Sabres @ 10 ET - I know that neither team is scoring overly great of late but this non-conference match-up opened up at a 6 for a reason and I am now going to grab the value as it has dropped to a 5.5 across the board in early market activity. The first meeting was a 5-2 win for the Kraken at Buffalo so the Sabres are out for revenge here! Seattle has been struggling of late so Buffalo is catching them at the right time to exact revenge. The trouble for the Sabres though is they have been quite inconsistent in terms of goals allowed! Buffalo has one 4-0 win recently but in their other 6 recent games they have allowed 3.3 goals per game. The Sabres are off a 4-1 loss but had averaged scoring an average of nearly 4 goals per game in their 7 games before that! Buffalo will respond here in this revenge spot. The Kraken are off B2B low-scoring losses but this followed a stretch in which 7 of their last 10 games totaled at least 6 goals. This one will too! Take advantage of the low total here. OVER 5.5 in Seattle |
|||||||
03-18-24 | Capitals v. Flames -130 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Monday Calgary Flames -130 vs Washington Capitals @ 8:35 ET - The Flames have finally got going again with some solid goalie work and they are off back to back wins by a combined score of 9 to 3. Not only that, Calgary has now won 6 of last 8 home games! This is the Flames only game between this past Saturday and next Saturday so they are fully focused here! Important win for Calgary before nice break in the action to rest mentally and physically! I expect a very focused Flames team here. At the same time, I expect the Capitals could struggle here. Washington is wrapping up a 5-game road trip and has huge 4-game homestand on deck. This is the kind of spot where a team can come out flat as, in their minds, they are already halfway back going home! I know the Caps are off B2B road wins but this followed losing 4 of 5 on the road and the combined score of those 4 defeats was 21 to 7! Washington has scored only 6 goals last 4 games. Look for the Flames to be too much here on home ice and I love this scheduling situation. CALGARY -130 |
|||||||
03-18-24 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers will take advantage of a Heat team dealing with a myriad of injuries right now. Yes, Philly is still without Joel Embiid but he is back practicing with the team and spirts are up for the Sixers team right now as they know he'll be back sooner rather than the later. Even without Embiid, the Sixers are the overall healthier club in this match-up plus they are at home. Note that Miami is only 4-5 L9 games and here is the kicker to that! One of the wins was against a slumping Jazz team that has lost 12 of 15 games. The other THREE WINS were against a Pistons team that is one of the worst in the league. Beating those teams and winning AT Philly are vastly different things! Even a wounded Sixers team is far superior to the Pistons and the current version of the Jazz. That said, the home team should win this in solid fashion as they take advantage a Heat team that is dealing with too many banged up guys right now. PHILADELPHIA -2 |
|||||||
03-18-24 | Stockport County v. Crawley Town OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #201085: English League Two: Monday OVER 2.5 -114 in Crawley Town vs Stockport County @ 3:45 ET - I like match-ups like this for goals when you have two solid clubs and the stronger club is on the road. That's because the hosts are going to put up a valiant effort hosting a top of the table type of club but, at the same time, the visitors are a powerhouse for a reason. In this case, Stockport County and Crawley Town have met 3 times in the past 18 months and the matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and averaged 5 goals apiece! Look for the over run to reach a perfect 4-0 with another high-scoring battle here. Crawley is off B2B wins by a 2-1 count entering this one. Stockport County is struggling a bit of a late and is off a 2-2 draw and hungry to get back on track. Though they have struggled a bit of late, the visitors are still a club that is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season but also allowing about 1.5 goals per match when traveling. Crawley Town is also allowing about 1.5 goals per match this season but also scoring 1.7 goals per match when at home and they are in solid form right now. The goals should again fly between these clubs as their match-up run to the over reaches 4 in a row! OVER 2.5 -114 in Crawley Town |
|||||||
03-18-24 | Amorebieta v. FC Andorra OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #202045: Spanish La Liga 2: Monday OVER 2 -113 in Andorra vs Amorebieta @ 3:30 ET - These are the bottom two clubs in the league but Andorra is a different club when at home. Note that 7 of their last 9 home matches have totaled at least 2 goals and those 7 matches averaged 3 goals apiece! As for Amorebieta, they won the first meeting between these clubs by a count of 3-0. That means that Andorra is out for revenge here but it also means that Amorebieta has some added confidence as well. Note that they are off a 1-0 loss but, prior to this, had scored a goal in 3 of last 4 matches prior to this. Their problem tends to be in the defensive zone where they have allowed 16 goals in their last 13 matches. Could we see a 1-1 draw here? Yes but both clubs are desperate for the full 3 points in the table and I feel we will see a strong push here and a 2-1 final as a result. OVER 2 -113 in Andorra |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Nets +106 v. Spurs | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets +105 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET in Austin, TX - The Spurs are in Austin again tonight rather than home in San Antonio. They are trying to expand their fan base with this and have done it the last two years but it is not their true home and takes away some of the typical home court edge an NBA team would have. Overall San Antonio is one of the worst teams in the league. The Nets have also struggled but they are still a better team than the Spurs. One way to see this is that both team have struggled against winning teams as you would expect. But the Nets (15-11 SU) are much better than the Spurs (7-17 SU) when facing teams with a losing record. Look for Brooklyn to again take advantage of facing a lesser foe tonight. The Nets are off B2B losses but this followed wins in 5 of last 9 games. Conversely, San Antonio has not shown any true signs of life like that. The Spurs have just 4 wins in last 21 games. San Antonio is already thinking ahead to next season. The Nets are running short on time but Atlanta keeps losing so the Nets still have a shot at the #10 seed and a chance to at least get into the play-in portion of the NBA post-season. To stay alive however they must have games like this. As they've done frequently this season, they will take advantage of facing a lesser foe here. BROOKLYN +105 |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Red Wings v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 104 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 +105 in Pittsburgh Penguins vs Detroit Red Wings @ 6 ET - Penguins in a back to back so Nedeljkovic expected to start in goal. He is struggling and overall Pittsburgh is off B2B crazy games as well. Additionally, the Red Wings are off a 4-1 win so it was good to see their scoring come back. However, Detroit had allowed an average of 5 goals per game in losing 7 straight prior to that one! Also, before B2B 4-1 games, the Red Wings had seen 5 of 7 games games total at least EIGHT goals! We only need 7 to be a winner here and the set up here is perfect as Pittsburgh off B2B high-scoring games and on home ice and off a loss and starting a back-up goalie. The goals should fly in this one. OVER 6.5 +105 in Pittsburgh |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Sharks v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6 in Chicago Blackhawks vs San Jose Sharks @ 6 ET - The Sharks starting a rookie goalie making his NHL debut. Devin Cooley has a 3.77 GAA at the AHL level this season. He will continue to get peppered with shots here as San Jose is so bad defensively. The Sharks have allowed 5 goals per game in the 12 losses in their current run of just 1 win last 13 games! The Blackhawks have allowed an average of 4 goals per game last 8 games. However, prior to a 5-0 loss in most recent game, Chicago had won 3 of 4 games and had scored an average of 5 goals in these 4 games. Given numbers like this plus the fact each team coming off a shutout loss, look for the goals to fly in this one. OVER 6 in Chicago |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -3 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
CBB Sunday Illinois Illini -3 or -3.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 3:30 ET - Badgers fought hard and won in OT versus the Boilermakers yesterday as they got the big upset win over Purdue. Their top 3 scorers in yesterday's win (71% of the points) played an average of 37 minutes as the game went to OT also. Now playing again today and having battled so hard to make it this far, this is the game where the juice runs out for Wisconsin. Their 3-point shooting was so hot but keeps cooling off game by game as their legs are starting to get tired. Purdue did not shoot as well as usual yesterday and also lost the turnover battle badly. Give some credit to the Badgers for sure but the Boilers caused their own demise as well. Don't look for Illinois to be so generous! This Illini team gets to the foul line well and Wisconsin had all kinds of foul trouble versus Purdue yesterday. Hats off to the Badgers for still being able to grind out the win but their big run ends here. The Illini create match-up problems with guys like Damask and Shannon just like they did in the recent regular season meeting. Getting this line in the -3 range is a great value. ILLINOIS -3 or -3.5 |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Temple +7.5 v. UAB | Top | 69-85 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Sunday Temple Owls +7.5 vs UAB Blazers @ 3:15 ET - These teams just met before the conference tourney started and Temple was embarrassed in Philly as the Blazers scored 100 points! UAB shot a ridiculous 61% from the field including 56% from 3-point land! Teams don't forget about home losses like that. The Owls have since won 5 straight games and just knocked off two of the top three teams in the conference as they beat Florida Atlantic and Charlotte. Temple underachieved in the regular season - to say the least - but they are truly battling hard now and have jelled as a team at the perfect time of year - mid-March! I am not saying they get the outright win here but I do expect them to have another very strong game and that should be good enough for at least the cover here! They have allowed just 62 ppg in their 4 games in this tourney so far. UAB has allowed 78 ppg in their last 8 games. The Blazers are the stronger overall team but the Owls are playing confident defensive-minded basketball right now and this game should go down to the wire. Grab the generous points and this one has upset potential as well. TEMPLE +7.5 |
|||||||
03-17-24 | FC Cincinnati v. New England OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #209821: Major League Soccer: Sunday OVER 2.5 -135 in New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati @ 2 ET - Look for the goals to fly here. There has not been a clean sheet from either club in any of the last 6 meetings. Those matches averaged 4 goals apiece and all but one of the six matches totaled at least 4 goals so this one testing an 83% RUN to the over! All the stats here included the Concacaf Champions Cup action going as well and note that New England had scored an average of 2 goals per match last 4 matches prior to resting guys in their 1-1 draw earlier this week (they already had a big lead on the aggregate). Cincinnati is the defending champ but struggling to score goals in MLS so far but have scored well in Concacaf action. They will take advantage here of a NE club allowing goals at an alarming rate thus far. New England has allowed 11 goals in their last 4 matches against MLS clubs (one was a friendly). But they are on their home pitch and I am expected them to get their attacking going as Cincy has not been perfectly tight defensively thus far. At the same time, NE focus on attacking to finally get a win after an 0-3 start this season means Cincy can make them pay on the counterattack! OVER 2.5 -135 in New England |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Liverpool v. Manchester United OVER 3.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 115 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #200413: English FA Cup | Quarter-Finals: Sunday OVER 3.5 +115 in Manchester United vs Liverpool @ 11:30 AM ET - The last meeting was a scoreless draw but this followed the 7 most recent meetings averaging 5 goals apiece! We'll see goals here as Man U has scored at least 1 goal in 13 straight matches (averaging 2 goals scored per match) while Liverpool is certainly favored for a reason here! I am looking for a match finishing in the 3-2 range! 8 of last 12 Liverpool matches - as they continue prolific scoring run - have totaled at least 4 goals. The Reds have conceded at least one goal in 10 of last 14 matches. More of the same here! OVER 3.5 +115 in Manchester United |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Aston Villa v. West Ham United OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #200157: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3 in West Ham United vs Aston Villa @ 10 AM ET - Aston Villa has had 7 straight EPL matches total at least 3 goals and 5 of the 7 totaled 4 or more so, with this pick, we are testing a 5-0 run going for 6 in a row. Aston Villa has scored 3.3 goals per match in their last 3 EPL matches away from home. However, they have also allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 5 matches overall in EPL action. West Ham has seen each of last 4 home matches across all competitions total 4 or more goals and these matches averaged 5 goals apiece. So this pick is testing double perfect angles with a 4-0 home angle involving West Ham and a 5-0 EPL angle involving Aston Villa. With the way both these clubs have been attacking of late plus the fact Ollie Watkins should play here, look for the goals to fly in this one! OVER 3 in West Ham United |
|||||||
03-17-24 | Leicester v. Chelsea OVER 3 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #200409: English FA Cup | Quarter-Finals: Sunday OVER 3 -125 in Chelsea vs Leicester @ 8:45 AM ET - Leicester has scored in 13 straight road matches across all competitions. Chelsea is a heavy favorite, including by 1.5 goals on the goal line, with good reason of course. Look for this to get to the 3-1 range as a result. 7 of last 9 matches across all competitions for Chelsea have totaled at least 4 goals. This one will too! OVER 3 -125 in Chelsea |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Knicks +145 v. Kings | Top | 98-91 | Win | 145 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Saturday New York Knicks Money Line +145 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10:10 ET - Home court is nothing special for Sacramento. The Kings are off B2B home wins but this followed losing 9 of last 16 home games! In fact, Sacramento has not won more than 2 straight home games since mid-December! The Knicks are a live dog here! Their defense has been fantastic for an extended stretch now and so you have the defensive edge here with New York. Also, while Knicks are off a win over a bad Portland team, the Kings are off big wins over the Bucks and the division rival Lakers. Sacramento might be a little flat here the way I see it. The Knicks have allowed an average of just 81 points last 4 games. Another interesting thing here is New York is off B2B wins and they have been in this spot 6 times this season and 5 of the 6 times their streak extended to 3 games and many much more. Don't be surprised if this pattern continues and another win streak is building for the Knicks. NEW YORK +145 |
|||||||
03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #634: CBB Saturday North Carolina Tar Heels -9 vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8:30 ET - Give the Wolfpack plenty of credit of course as a win is a win and they fought hard yesterday. However, it took some late mistakes from Virginia including a key turnover and then a bank-shot 3 at the buzzer to even force OT in their eventual win over the Cavaliers. I also expect the Wolfpack to be worn out here. This is going to be their 6th game in 8 days! Conversely, North Carolina is playing just its 3rd game in 7 days! Not only is this a huge rest edge for the Tar Heels, they are absolutely the superior team in all facets of the game. I do not often lay big points in spread sports but there are exceptions. In this case, the rest factor plus the talent factor are hugely in favor of UNC. Also, the Wolfpack went just 9-11 in ACC games this season while the Tar Heels went 17-3. While 9 points may seem like a lot, half of NC State's losses this season were by 9 or more points. Given that plus the fact they are facing one of the top teams in the nation (and a rival that won't hold back given the chance to rout) and the fact they are very tired after all the basketball over the past week, this one gets ugly and UNC pulls away for blowout win by 15+ points. NORTH CAROLINA -9 |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Flyers +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -150 @ Boston Bruins @ 7 ET - Bruins off tight win over division rival Canadiens. Since starting the season 29-8-9, Boston has only 5 wins by more than 1 goal in last 22 games! Flyers are off an ugly 6-2 loss but this followed by a 16 games stretch in which only 3 of the 16 games were a loss by more than 1 goal. This is a great set up with Bruins off a tight divisional win and Philly off an ugly loss. Take advantage and grab the puck line here at a reasonable price. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -150 |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Sharks v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in Columbus Blue Jackets vs San Jose Sharks @ 7 ET - Chrona will be between the pipes here and he has allowed 26 goals in his 6 starts and 1 relief appearance at the NHL level this season. In other words, giving up about 4 goals on average. His counterpart will likely be Tarasov tonight and the Blue Jackets netminder has been better of late and yet he still has been weaker at home than on the road. He has a 3.51 GAA at home this season. The Jackets scoring has tailed off of late but facing a struggling Sharks team (particularly the defense and goaltending) will help Columbus open things up at home here. Also, San Jose has seen 6 of last 9 games total at least 7 goals and amazingly 5 of those 6 totaled 9 or more goals! The Sharks have scored 3 goals per game last 8 games, despite all the losing but their problem is they can stop no one! That will be the case again tonight and I expect both teams to get to the 3-goal mark in this one as it finishes with at least 7 goals. OVER 6.5 in Columbus |
|||||||
03-16-24 | CF Montreal v. Chicago Fire OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #209973: Major League Soccer: Saturday OVER 2.5 -130 in Chicago Fire vs CF Montreal @ 2 ET - Love the fact that Montreal has both scored and conceded each of the last two weeks and both matches totaled at least 3 goals AND Chicago has both scored and conceded in each of its 3 matches this season and all 3 totaled at least 3 goals! In other words, this play at over 2.5 is testing a trend that is 100% PERFECT on the season and all set for 4 in a row. The important thing about each of these 2 clubs over trending is there are no clean sheets involved! The trends involves both scoring and conceding and that is why I am anticipating a 2-2 type match in this one! OVER 2.5 -130 in Chicago |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Newcastle United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #200405: English FA Cup: Saturday OVER 3.5 +100 in Manchester City vs Newcastle United @ 1:30 ET - Kevin DeBruyne is out for City but Jack Grealish is back. Also helping the odds on a high-scoring match here is that City #1 goalie Ederson is out for this match. I do look for Newcastle to get on the board here at least once, if not twice, but of course City is a heavy favorite with good reason. That is why I am calling for at least a 3-1 final here. Note that Manchester City will be chomping at the bit to get to back to their aggressive ways after a bit of a disappointing 1-1 result with Liverpool in league action last week. Prior to that, City was averaging 2.6 goals scored per match last 30 matches across all competitions. They tend to be a scoring machine when on their home pitch as well! The last meeting between these clubs totaled 5 goals. Also, Newcastle enters this one with their last 13 matches having averaged 4.3 goals per match! 9 of the 13 totaled at least 4 goals and I look for the high-scoring trend to continue here. Newcastle United has been known for a leaky backline but also their attackers will take advantage of City having to go with #2 goalie option here. OVER 3.5 +100 in Manchester City |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Fulham OVER 3 | Top | 0-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200153: English Premier League Saturday OVER 3 -135 in Fulham vs Tottenham @ 1:30 ET - These clubs have a history of lower-scoring matches but Tottenham is on a tear in the attacking zone since they got Son Heung-min back from his time with South Korea. Tottenham has now scored 7 goals in last two matches and also this total is available at 3 goals and a -135 price. Yes, we have to lay some juice to have the total of 3 goals but that is a key number in soccer betting! Note that Tottenham has had 17 of last 20 matches across all competitions - including a current run of 6 in a row - all total at least 3 goals. Also, in EPL matches, Tottenham has had 10 in a row total at least 3 goals and 7 of those totaled 4 or more so this is a 100% streak going for 8 in a row here! As for Fulham, they have had 6 straight EPL matches total at least 3 goals and they have both scored and conceded in all but one of those. That said, and with Tottenham a heavy goal line favorite for a reason, look for at least a 3-1 final in this one! OVER 3 -135 in Fulham |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -6 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #610: CBB Saturday Purdue Boilermakers -6 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 1 ET - Live by the three, die by the three. Today is the day Wisconsin's Big Ten Tourney run dies. 3rd game in 3 days. The legs start to give out. That is very important in 3 point shooting. The Badgers have been ridiculous from three point land in each of their first two games in the tourney. Now they face a Purdue team that shut them down from downtown in each of their two meetings this season. I also like the fact that the Boilermakers faced a tough Spartans team yesterday. Gutting out a gutsy win over a Tom Izzo-coached team is never easy come tourney time. Keep in mind the Badgers played a struggling Maryland team and then Northwestern so far in this tourney. I know the Wildcats finished ahead of Michigan State this season in the Big Ten but when you factor in the Tom Izzo effect, the Boilers arguably faced the tougher match-up yesterday. Give credit to the Badgers for a solid run but I could see their 3-point shooting really drop off here (just like the regular season meetings) especially with some weary legs. The Boilers have a rest edge and they are fully focused on becoming the first team in 24 years to win both the Big Ten regular season title and Big Ten tourney in the same season. Look for big man Zach Edey to have another huge game and the fact their largest deficit was only 1 point and they led by as many as 12 points yesterday has led to value here considering they only won the game by 5 points. That is keeping this line a little low and I look for the Boilers to roll by double digits given all of the above. PURDUE -6 |
|||||||
03-16-24 | Nottingham Forest v. Luton Town OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #200145: English Premier League Saturday OVER 2.5 -145 in Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest @ 11 AM ET - Luton Town just played on Wednesday and there could be some weary legs on defense! Why? Because they just blew a 3-0 lead (incredibly) and lost 4-3 at Bournemouth in most recent match! Luton Town allowing 2.1 goals per match this season but they do also score about 1.5 goals per match and have a long 16-match run (in EPL matches) of scoring at least 1 goal! Yes, 16 in a row and yet they just can not seem to stop anyone which is why I like the over so much in this match-up. Note that 13 of those 16 matches totaled at least 3 goals so we are testing an 81% EPL run with this play. Also, Nottingham Forest is allowing 2 goals per match when on the road this season. Nottingham knotted up Luton at 2-2 in the first meeting and I anticipate a similar result here. Nottingham on a stretch of low-scoring results but they will open things up here against a weak Luton Town backline. Also, Nottingham has not had a stretch of 4 straight matches failing to reach 3 goals since the mid-Sept to early-Oct timeframe more than 5 months ago. The high-scoring ways resume here given a favorable match-up after some tougher opposition. OVER 2.5 -145 in Luton Town |
|||||||
03-15-24 | Colorado -1.5 v. Washington State | Top | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #857: CBB Friday Colorado Buffaloes -1.5 -115 or money line -130 vs Washington State Cougars @ 10:30 ET in Pac-12 Tourney at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV - Love the line movement on this one. Colorado opened favored by about 2.5 then came down to 1.5 and now appears headed back up. First off, why were the Buffaloes favored in the first place even though Washington State is ranked and the Buffaloes are unranked? Exactly! Odds makers know! Why did the line come down? Sharps wanted to move it down! Why is it now going back up? Sharps took advantage of the lower number and the bigger bets are starting to come in. In addition to all these betting and market factors, I also like Colorado here because they are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. The Buffaloes have won 7 straight games! The Cougars have two recent losses and they were to Pac-12 teams that finished the regular season with a combined 17-23 record in conference games! Colorado is the better team offensively including at the free throw line. That could be key in a projected tighter game. Though this game may indeed be tight I just do not see the Buffaloes being denied here. Colorado playing with such confidence right now. The Buffs were tested yesterday by a solid Utah team while the Cougars took advantage of facing an inconsistent Stanford team that ended up finishing their year on a 3-9 run. Don't let this line fool you. The Buffaloes are favored with good reasoning here as noted above. COLORADO -1.5 -115 or money line -130 |
|||||||
03-15-24 | Hawks v. Jazz +125 | Top | 122-124 | Win | 125 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz +125 vs Atlanta Hawks @ 9:40 ET - Good home dog value here and no points needed the way I see it. Utah 19-13 at home this season while the Hawks road record is the exact opposite of that this season. Of course the Hawks are also without Trae Young now but they also have additional injury issues entering this one. Utah will be without Markanen again but, prior to a loss to an elite Boston team, the Jazz had won 2 of last 3 home games and the only loss was by just 2 points. Considering the fact that Atlanta is 3-7 SU last 10 road games and Bogdanovic off an ugly game as he is dealing with an illness and is questionable and Trae Young is still out too, the Hawks are a bit over-valued here. Atlanta just looked right past Portland and lost and the same thing could happen here as they underestimate another team as they look forward to their trip to LA to play the Lakers and Clippers plus then they have a tough Suns team next. I expect another sub-par effort from the wounded Hawks here. In their last game Murray had 40 points and no one else topped 13 points. That is not a good sign of where this Atlanta team is right now. The Jazz, though Clarkson won't play tonight, had Clarkson and 2 others all score at least 20 points in their loss to the Celtics. The Jazz are a little bit more of a balanced team and they are at home and they are offering plus money on the money line. I'll take it! UTAH +125 |
|||||||
03-15-24 | Kings v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Friday OVER 5.5 -120 in Chicago Blackhawks vs Los Angeles Kings @ 8:35 ET - Some sharp books already have this total at a 6 which is a sign to me that they are expecting the sharper action to be on the over in this one. I also am expecting a higher-scoring game as well. The Blackhawks are suddenly playing much better and have won 3 of 4 games and scored at least 5 goals in all 3 victories! However, this is still a Chicago team that has allowed about 4 goals per game last 15 games as well. The Kings enter this one off a 3-1 loss but should bounce back here as this followed wins in 4 of 6 games and they scored an average of 4 goals in the 4 victories. LA also has scored an average of 4 goals the last 3 times they were off a loss. So look for Los Angeles to respond here and score well but the hot Hawks match them goal for goal in a game that has a great shot at seeing each team score at least 3 goals. I anticipate this one getting to 7 or more goals so we have great line value here. OVER 5.5 -120 in Chicago |
|||||||
03-15-24 | Providence +5 v. Marquette | Top | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #841: CBB Friday: Providence Friars +5 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 8 ET in Big East Tourney at Madison Square Garden - The Friars are off a great win over Creighton yesterday after an easy win over a horrible Georgetown team Wednesday. Yes it is a 3rd game in 3 days for Providence but they do catch Marquette off an intense physical and emotional grinder of a win over Villanova yesterday that did require OT. That said, this one sets up well for an upset. Will grab the points here just in case but the Friars enter this game with a lot of confidence and they actually had 70 shots from the field yesterday compared to just 58 for the Bluejays. In other words, the win was not a fluke and they took great care of the ball as well and that had an edge in the turnover department for the Friars as well. Providence has won 6 of 9 games and Marquette is at a disadvantage in the rebounding department also. Prior to yesterday's OT win over Villanova, the Golden Eagles were on a 6-6 run in games played away from home. Also, the only 2 wins that were blowout wins were against DePaul and Georgetown - the two worst teams in the Big East. The other 4 wins were by an average margin of 4.5 ppg an none of those wins by more than 6 points. Don't be surprised if this one goes to the wire and, though I expect an outright upset, we'll grab the points just in case the Friars fall a bucket or so short. PROVIDENCE +5 |