My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

  My own numbers and projections make this total out to be closer to 160, thus giving us value with an under wager. CBB teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points (LA-LAFAYETTE/GA SOTHERN - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (65-69%) have gone under 50 of the L/70 times for a 71% conversion rate for under bettors. 

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My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

 WOFFORD is 9-2 OVER L/11 versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons and is 8-1 OVER L/9 versus good offensive teams like E Tenn St - scoring 77+ points/game under the same game perimeters with a combined average of 169.3 ppg going on the scoreboard.  Wofford has scored 100 or more points twice in their L/13 games and have eclipsed the 88 point plateau 4 more times in that span and are more than capable of an explosive offensive performance, which will Im betting sees their opponent returning fire with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court which the linesmakers believe is not the case as the visitor is favored. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

 With key Monmouth G Micah Seaborn injured or less than 100% for this game , his teams offensive flow will be effected, with other pertinent factors also  giving us value according to my own projections on the under.  RIDER is 20-9 UNDER L/29 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season with a combined average score of 138.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. MONMOUTH is 11-1 UNDER  after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 144.2 ppg getting scored. 

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

 My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

 My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

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This Totals investment option centers almost totally on past trends, and mathematical truths and both sides current form. 

Oklahoma City are ranked 7th in Defensive rating in the league and 18th in offensive rating. Chicago ranks 23 in offense and 5th in defense. With that said, I expect the Thunders under rated D, to hold the Bulls struggling offense, to a lower out put than expected, while the Bulls solid D, does the same to the Thunder. Im betting on a grinding physical affair.

CHICAGO is 17-8 UNDER L/25 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 201.3 ppg going on the board.CHICAGO is 25-15 UNDER L/40 versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 204.3 ppg and is 23-14 UNDER L/37 versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season with a combined average of 204.9 ppg going on the scoreboard. CHICAGO is 13-4 UNDER L/17 in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season with a combined average of 202.9 ppg getting put on the scoreboard. CHICAGO is also 8-0UNDER L/9 after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season with a combined average 

with a combined average of 196.2 ppg getting scored. CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER L/11 after a combined score of 215 points or more this season with the following game seeing a combined sore of 196.6 ppg. OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-10 UNDER L/31` in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.5 ppg going on the board.OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after 4 straight games with 55 or more rebounds this season with a combined average of 203.6 ppg going on the scoreboard, 13-0 UNDER  after 3 straight games with 55 or more rebounds this season with a combined average of 201.1 ppg clicking in.

According to the data above, this tilt between Oklahoma City and Chicago favors a Total that should be closer to 202 to 204 , thus giving us value on this number being offered via a under bet.

Under is 10-3 in Bulls last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 23-7-2 in Bulls last 32 road games.Under is 23-9-1 in Thunder last 33 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. NBA Central.Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.

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The Lakers expect to have guard D'Angelo Russell the catalyst of their offense back on the floor tonight vs the visiting Denver Nuggets. His presence and flow will aid the Lakers into what Im betting will be a strong offensive showing vs a weak Nuggets defense ranked 28th in defensive rating in the league. Meanwhile, Denver is currently playing a top tier brand of basketball, that is producing a scorching offensive out put that has been highlighted with six 123+ point out explosions in their L/10 games .With that said I expect Nuggets have a big night again vs a Lakers D, .that is allowing an average of 110.1 ppg on the season and among the leagues bottom feeders and ranked 29th in defensive rating. DENVER is 21-4 OVER vs  lower tier defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game this season with a combined average of 230.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. These teams played in a 127-121 scorcher here back on Jan 17 and another back and forth affair is a high probability again. ( LAL ranks 7th in pace in the league- Denver ranks 5th in pace)

Over is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 29-11-2 in Lakers last 42 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.Over is 13-2-1 in Nuggets last 16 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Lakers- revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 47-19 L/66 OVER.

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Minnesota has scored 114,104,111,112,103, and 129 points on offense in their L/6 games , and at the same time, allowed 122,101, 108,111,109, and 109 points in back forth take no prisoners style games. Meanwhile, Orlando's porous D, has allowed 100 or more points in 16 of their L/17 games. Meanwhile, the Magic vs swiss cheese  defenses, can do damage as was the case vs the Raptors last time out when they put 114 points on the board, and will be primed to run and gun again in this spot with same season revenge on board. My own projections estimate that Minnesota will score 110 or more points. Which brings this trend into play. ORLANDO is 16-4 OVER  when they allow 110 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 224.9 ppg going on the board .ORLANDO is 12-4 OVER L/16 revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season ( Minnesota beat Orlando 127-107 back Nov 11.)

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 My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

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Milwaukee's enter this road game against the Celtics having  problems with their  defensive play.  The  Bucks after leading the league earlier this season are now  15th in FG D (48.9 percent) and are 11th in points allowed, giving up 104.5 per game.Meanwhile, the Celtics are running on cylinders offensively, scoring more than 106 points 19 straight times  and will make the Bucks run with them today , or be blown of the court. This scenario I am betting leads toa high scoring affair that eclipses the number.

BOSTON is 9-1 OVER  after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games this season with a combined average od 223.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. MILWAUKEE is 10-2 OVER L/12 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season with a combined average score of 222.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. MILWAUKEE is 17-4 OVER after playing a road game this season.

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My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

 My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Northern Kentucky scored 101 points last time out and allowed 87 in a run and gun affair, and will now be in a run and gun state of mind entering this tilt. Meanwhile, Illinois Chicago was crushed by Valparaiso last time out, 96-65. After that ugly effort, I expect the Illinois Chicago will come out here in aggressive fashion looking for redemption, so a high octane outing becomes a strong possbility.   N KENTUCKY is 8-1 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 152.3 ppg going on the scoreboard.  

My own numbers suggest this total should be closer to 150, thus giving us value with an over wager in this spot. 

 CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points like N.Kentucky - after allowing 85 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 30 points or more are 30-6 to the OVER dating back 5 seasons.

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Charlotte enters this game having gone under in 7 straight games, thanks to some bloated Totals, and decent defensive efforts. Charlotte a team that ranks 16th in offense in the league enters this game off a hard fought loss to Golden State last time out 113-103, and could easily start a little slowly in an emotional let down state , which will impact their offensive output over the entire game. Meanwhile, the NY Knicks a side that ranks 15th in offensive output, have gone under the Total in 3 straight games, and last time out in Dallas put just 95 points on the board in exhausted looking fashion. Now still on tired legs, playing their 8th game in 12 days, I expect the Knicks offense to be muted again, for a Charlotte side that can play a strong brand of defensive ball. (Charlotte ranks 6th in the NBA in Defensive rating)

NEW YORK is 13-1 UNDER L/14 versus strong offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 200.7 ppg games.CHARLOTTE is 18-4 UNDER L/22 vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76%  or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season, with a combined average  of 200.4 ppg getting scored.

 From a league wide NBA data base, it must be noted that teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like NYK - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 50-16 under going back 5 seasons.

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TEMPLE is 6-0 OVER L/6  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of  151.4 ppg going on the scoreboard .

College Hoops teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points Memphis/Temple  - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (60 shots/game or better) after 15+ games.  90-38 over. College Hoops teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TEMPLE) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (32% or less) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher (42-14 over).

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Utah enters this home tilt vs Oklahoma City ranked first points allowed, and 30th in pace in the NBA, with a  defense first  and methodical physical system being their cornerstone to success or failure. Meanwhile, the Thunder despite of their reputation are ranked just 16th in offensive rating this season, and a decent 12th in defensive rating and play better defense than many give them credit for. With that said, I expect a lower scoring game then the linesmakers expect, based on their hard data. My own numbers suggest that  based on the above mentioned matchup variables t that we have value being under bettors in this spot, 

The Thunder enter this game going under in 11 straight games with rest, and have gone under in 11 of their L/13 with a line of 211 or less. Meanwhile,  the Jazz have gone under 6 straight times,  as favorites vs .550 opponents or less like the Thunder and have gone under in 8 of the L/9 vs Oklahoma City. Under is 8-1 in Thunder last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 14-4 in Thunder last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Utah.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Thunder - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5  or lessTO's) are 35-11 UNDER dating back 21 seasons.  NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 liek the Jazz - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 22-4 UNDER dating back 5 seasons.

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My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Brooklyn Nets upset the New Orleans Pelicans by putting 143 points on the board in their last trip to the hardwood, via  uptempo and downtown barrage of shots. BROOKLYN is 11-3 OVER  as an underdog of 10 or more points this season, with a combined average of 232.6 ppg going on the board. The Nets have allowed 101 or more points in 18 straight games, and recently have finally seen their fast take no prisoners style of offensive play, net them 113, 112, 109, an 143 points in their L/4, with the combined average score of those games ringing in at 244.7 ppg, thanks in part to a horrid defense.  Meanwhile, the Hornets offense averages 105.2 ppg this season, and their defense has allowed 103 ppg. Considering the Nets wide open transition game this tilt looks like it will once again be a wide open affair with plenty of points getting scored.  NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like the Hornets - after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less have gone OVER in 33 o their L/40 games dating back 21 seasons.(The  Hornets did that to the Raptors last time out).

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My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

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The Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors are two of the most explosive teams in the NBA. Thus this matchup has a totals premium attached to it, that makes it a viable wager for under bettors.

 On the flip side, it must also be noted that the Warriors are 1st in the league in defensive rating which is for for players and teams / points allowed per 100 posessions and they are even stingier on the road. With injuries starting to catchup to the Rockets , I dont expect them to be as consistent on offense tonight, and may resort to a more physical approach which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the number. The Rockets beat the Warriors 132-127 in Golden State , but in the past GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 UNDER L/11 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more over the last few seasons , with a combined average of 202.4 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 17-7 UNDER L/24 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season, with a combined average of 209.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.  HOUSTON is 21-7 UNDER L/28 in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 196.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Warriors/Rockets - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, 30-6 under going back 5 seasons. 

Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

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Brooklyn visits Toronto tonight in a game that has seen a pretty hefty total attached to it. I know Brooklyns D, is bad, and that they play a attack orientated game , that shoots from down town on a consistent basis.  I also know the Raptors offense can light defenses up in  big way. But the difference maker comes via a Raptors D, than can slow the best of offenses  down , behind a 20th ranked pace. Add to that Nets wildly inconsistent offense ( Off rating), that ranks 29th in a 30 team league. ( Off rating is used- for players it is points produced per 100 posessions, while for teams it is points scored per 100 possessions. From a mathematical perspective , my own correlated numbers suggest the Total should be closer to 222 to 223.5, thus giving us value on the under.  

From a league wide trends data base it interesting to note that :  NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like the Raptors - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent  like Brooklyn after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 33-12 to the UNER for a impressive 73% conversion rate for under bettors. 

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My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.
CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points like Texas Arlington - playing with 5 or 6 days rest, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 42-16 to the under for a 72% conversion rate dating back 20 seasons.

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My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.


College Hoops teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points in -like Ball State - good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 35-11 on the under dating back 20 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for under bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

 My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

 My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

 My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

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The San Antonio Spurs ranked 2nd in D  are off a rare bad defensive game against Milwaukee last time out allowing 109 points in home loss. With that said I expect the Spurs who rank 27th in pace to key on defense vs the young Lakers that rank 20th in offensive rating, behind a fully healthy starting lineup. I am also betting the Spurs will be be methodical in their approach. Meanwhile,  Lakers coach Luke Walton was displeased how his offense is playing, scoring just 87 points against offensively challenged Portland last time out and I feel hes going to very displeased after this tilt with his teams ability to score. These above mentioned situations will result in a combined score that remains on the low side of the number.
 
SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 UNDER L/17 in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 193.1 ppg going on the scoreboard and s 31-19 UNDER  offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game with a combined average of 201.6 ppg going on the board.

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  My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play UNDER 

  My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play OVER 

The dangerous Golden State Warriors are off blowing a 24-point third-quarter lead in a 128-119 overtime loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last time out, and will now come in breathing fire when they face their Northern California rivals Sunday night the Sacramento Kings. Im betting the Warriors who rank first in offense and 2nd in pace in the NBA , come out here with all guns blazing in a start to finish offensive fire works exhibition. Meanwhile, the Kings will have no choice to but reciprocate and chase with some offensive freworks of their own or be blown off the court , which will aid in this total combined score eclipsing the number.

Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games following a straight up loss.Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-3 in Kings last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

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My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. 

Play UNDER 

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. 

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. 

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. 

Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. 

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and propietary software projections . All factors are researched - revlevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. 

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Alot is made of how explosive offensively the Golden State Warriors are but, few recognize their defensive abilities, and 1st overall defensive rating in the NBA which is a system for players and teams and points allowed per 100 possessions. In tonight's matchup vs Portland, the lines-makers have put a high total on this matchup because of this , and of course the Portland Blazers run and gun style of basketball. However, Portland is expected to be without offensive catalyst, (injured ankle) Damian Lillard, which Im betting their offensive flow will be slowed, which effect their ability to run and gun, which will effect , their ability to keep up here today and put alot of points on the board, which in turn will effect the total combined average out put.  It must also be noted that the Blazers have only scored more than 95 points in 1 of their L/6 games and will need to be proactive on defense, and also try to slow this game down as much as possible.

 NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Blazers - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off an upset win as an underdog are 56-19 on the under for a 75% conversion rate . 

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The San Antonio Spurs and the Toronto Raptors go head to head tonight  in battle between top tier teams. Both team leads their divisions. Both these sides can score in bunches, but both are also defensively gifted. The Raptors own the 12th best D in the league , and  are 19th in pace. Meanwhile, the Spurs rank 3rd in the league in points allowed and 27th in pace. When strong sides like this collide, and is not uncommon to see slower physical grinding affairs. in these types of tilts will more often than not result in a much lower scoring contest then lines-makers estimate based on their data.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 Spurs/Raptors - in a game involving 2 top tier teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG have seen the under go 62-20 L/82 for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Toronto in their L/40 road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 have seen an average of 206.2 ppg scored which gives us value on this total. San Antonio in their L/21 with a total of 200 or more have seen an average of 207.1 ppg scored and in their L/56 as favs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average of 197.9 ppg goin on the board. The last time these teams met last April a total of 197points went on the board and in their December meetings last season 191 total points were scored. I'm expecting a total combined score in the low 200s this time around.

Play UNDER  

Phoenix is a team with alot of  defensive  defecincies, and despite of allowing their L/2 opponents under 100 points are still a disaster in transition and have allowed an average of 114.7 ppg on the road this season . The Suns had allowed 100 or more points in 15 straight games, dropping to a No. 29 defensive ranking before their two most recent outings. Meanwhile, the Clippers, are without some key players, but still capable of lighting it up offensively, and despite of their current 6 game losing streak must not be underestimated  in their ability to put points on the board. On the flipside the Clippers usually staunch D, has been porous of late, allowing 102 or more points in 11 of their L/13 overall, and will once again be tested tonight.  The Clippers beat the Suns 116-98 back on Oct 31 which sets up this current trend that shows that the Suns are 15-0 OVER L/15 revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season / Phoenix  is also 9-0 OVER L/9 after playing 4 consecutive games as an underdog this season, which has just happened.

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FAIRFIELD is 11-0 UNDER L/11 in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less  with a combined average of 125.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

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N TEXAS is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots like Old Dominion  with a combined average of 146.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

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This line has moved up since opening , which gives us value on the under.  I know USC has an explosive offense, but the Ducks will be out to slow this game down, which will aid in this combined score staying on the low side of the number. OREGON is 25-11 UNDER L36 when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined  average  of 145 ppg going on the scoreboard. OREGON is 6-0 UNDER L/6 in home games off a win against a conference rival, which ahppened last time out.. 

 College Hoops teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points like the Ducks/Trojans - playing with one or less days rest, in a game involving two top-level teams ( .800 or better teams)have gone under 19 of the L/23 times.

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DELAWARE ST is 11-1 UNDER L/12 when the total is 120 to 129.5  with a combined average of 114.1 ppg getting scored. HAWAII is 7-1 UNDER  in all home games this season.

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Two top tier teams the Golden State Warriors and the Toronto Raptors, go head to head in east /west battle this Wednesday night. Both teams can put points up in a hurry but, both must not be under rated when its comes to their abilities on defense. 

Toronto ranked 9th in points allowed and 20th in pace. Golden State is 1st in defensive rating, (teams  and players points allowed per 100 possessions) Also because of the Warriors take no prisoners offensive attack, their games almost always seem to have a totals premium attached to them , which has been evident by them going under the total in 9 of their L/10 games. My own numbers suggest this total is also slightly bloated when considering the matchup profiles of both teams and setting aside straight up mathematical data.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (Golden St/Toronto) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG 62-18 UNDER dating back five seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

GOLDEN STATE is 24-7 UNDER L/31 after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better, with a combined average of 211.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. Golden State HC Kerr Kerr is 23-11 UNDER L/34 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 209 ppg going on the board.

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Sacramento enters this game firing on all cylinders, and will I am betting dictate the pace of this game. However, because of this their transistion game , which has been a problem area for them all season,   the Kings  defense will be open to Philadelphia reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own. My own propiteary programs suggest both these teams will put more than 100 points on the board.

Over is 3-0-1 in Kings last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.

NBA teams like the Kings  - off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less, first half of the season- 46-13 OVER dating back 21 seasons. 

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The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors renew their rivalry this Sunday in a Christmas Day battle that promises to be physical. Both teams have a boat load full of scoring talent, but both can play top tier defense when asked to, and in a game like this that is exactly what I am betting we will get DEFENSE, DEFENSE and more DEFENSE. From a long term NBA archive we have this trend: NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 Cavaliers/Warriors - in a game involving 2 top tier teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG the under has cashed 60 of 78 times for a powerful 77% conversion rate!

In the L/9 meetings only one game has seen todays numbers total eclipsed.

GOLDEN STATE is 45-28 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game with themselves and their opponents combining for a totlal of 209.8 ppg. Golden State in their 43 games  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts have seen a combined 215.9 ppg go on the scoreboard. CLEVELAND in their L/39 games  in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more  of their attempts have seen a combined average o 205.1 ppg get scored. 

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The Blazers take on the Spurs tonight in a game that is an over bet for me. Portland atrocious D ranks in  the bottom six in the NBA in opposition scoring, opponents' field-goal percentage and opposition' 3-point percentage conversion rate. They have given up 120 points 10 times, including four of the last six games. The Blazers play a one  take no prisoners one way offensive game, ranking 6th in offensive rating, and dead last in defensive ratings. My won proprietary programs suggest both teams will score 100+ points tonight, which sets into play a trend that shows, PORTLAND is 20-2 OVER L/22 where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg getting scored. Using the same estimated perimeters San Anontio is 12-3 over where both teams score 98 points or more, with a combined average of 213.9 ppg going on the scoreboard.

PORTLAND is 9-1 OVER  vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making 39% or more  of their attempts with a combined average of 236.3 ppg getting scored. Six of the L/7 meetings in this series have eclipsed the total including the last three in Portland.

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GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 OVER L/15  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season with a a combined average of 226.2 ppg getting registered on the scoreboard.GOLDEN STATE in their 27 games  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points have seen a combined average of 219.2 ppg go on the scoreboard and when they are off a 10 or more point road win like last time out, have seen a massive 231.8 ppg go on the board. I know Golden State has gone under in 9 straight, but now because of this the lines-makers are under compensating ( pardon the pun) which gives is value to the over .It must also be pointed out, that despite of Motwons propensity to play methodically,  they will have no choice but to pick up the pace as was the case in a recent game against Washington when they lost 122-108. Golden State  ranked first in offense with a 117.4 ppg I am betting dictates the speed of this game behind a 3rd ranked pace. 

Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Warriors  - a top-level team (75% or better) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), in December games have gone over 39 of the L/53 times for a solid 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

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The Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic go head to head tonight in the battle of Florida. Both teams are not inspiring alot of pundits right now, and both struggle to put points up on the scoreboard.  Orlando ranks 28th in the league in offense, behind the 23rd ranked pace. Meanwhile, Miami ranks 27th in offense 97.3 ppg, and 25th in pace. Both teams saving grace , sort of speak, rests with their defenses. The Magic rank 9th in points allowed 101.9 ppg, while the Heat rank 7th allowing 100.4 ppg. Both these sides are off DD losses, and both had less than stellar offensive out puts with Orlando looking tired in a muted 79 point production and the Heat manufactured 95  points, staying below the 100 plateau in three straight.It must be noted that NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points like the Heat - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more like Orlando have gone under 50 of the L/67 times for a 79% conversion rate on under bets.

With Both teams playing a crap load full of games during the past 7 days, I expect a slower paced methodical game that remains on the low side of the number.

MIAMI is 22-11 UNDER L/33 when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 191.5 ppg go on the board and 17-6 UNDER L/23 after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less with a combined average score of 193 ppg getting scored. MIAMI is 9-0 UNDER L/9 after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with the combined average score of 182.9 ppg going on the score board.Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 7-2 in Magic last 9 road games.Under is 8-2 in Magic last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. Under is 8-3 in Magic last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

We have two very tired teams playing each other tonight Indiana and Detroit - with that said, a long term 61% ATS trend is in play. NBA teams  where the total is 200 to 209.5 like the Pistons  -  an extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days against opponent that is also a  tired team ( Indiana ) - playing 6 or more games in 10 days have seen the under go 265-173 dating back 5 seasons.

INDIANA is 26-6 UNDER L/32 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days  dating back to last season, with the total combined average score clicking in at 194.8 ppg. DETROIT is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in home games this season with a combined average of 190 ppg getting scored. 

Previous to their L. game Motown did not allow more than 97 points in 7 straight games and have not allowed more than 99 points in 12 of their L/15 and I'm betting on another solid defensive performance here in methodical fashion. Van Gundys side will control the pace, vs a Indiana side trying to play a more solid two way game and that has only scored 89 and 95 points in their L/2 tilts.

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The Milwaukee Bucks ranked 12th in pae and 13th in defensive rating  and  Chicago Bulls who rank 21 in pace in the league and 8th in Defensive ratings,    prepare to face off on back-to-back nights, beginning this Thursday.  Because of the divisional rivalry, and the difficulty of playing two games into two nights against the same side, both coaches will not be inclined to run and gun. The key to this game will be the Bucks ability to stop the downtown shots from beyond the arc, as they rank 2nd in the league in stopping  3s. The Bulls are dead last in the league shooting the trey, (30.7%) and do a majority of their work on the inside, where HC Kidd and company are well prepared to be physical. With that said, Im expecting a hard fought inside affair, that remains on the low side of the number.

CHICAGO is 14-4 UNDER L/18 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) with the average combined score clicking in at 198.8 ppg and is is 18-6 UNDER L/24 in road games vs. division opponents with an average of 194.9 ppg getting scored.Under is 20-7-2 in Bulls last 29 road games.Under is 9-4 in Bucks last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

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The Warriors enter this game having gone under in 4 straight games, thanks to a more concerted effort on defense, and some fatigue taking its toll on the Dubs. With this being their 6th straight road game, Im betting the Warriors won;t be in the mood to run and gun. Meanwhile, New Orleans has scored 96 points or less in 4 of their L/8, and will be weary of trying to out gun their explosive opponents tonight, which will see them put forward a more methodical effort, which will in turn result in a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total . 

GOLDEN STATE is 31-16 UNDER L/47 in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more of their attempts over the last few seasons, 201.1 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games, with a combined average of 209.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. GOLDEN STATE is 21-7 UNDER L/28 after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better , which happened last time out. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like New Orleans - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off an upset win as a road underdog is 59-22 on the under for a 73% conversion rate.

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My own numbers make this total 136.6 so according to that data with have value with an under bet. 
DENVER is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers per game with the average combined score clicking in at 121.6 ppg. 
All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (DENVER) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 293-186 to the under for a longterm conversion rate of 61%. 

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The Golden State Warriors seem a little burned out of late, after playing at a high intensity level for a extended time. Their exhaustion has shown itslef in two of their L/3 games as they failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in two of those tilts. Now as they play a back to back tcontests against Minnesota on tired legs, I won;t be surprised by another muted effort .( The Dubs lost last night 110-89 at Memphis) I know the Wolves have struggled with D, this season, but because of Golden States take no prisoner style of offense, the totals are sometimes over exagerated by linesmakers playing to public bettors sentiments,  as is evident by a 66-38 under run in Warrior road games against lower tier defensive teams allowing 103 or more points per game, with the total combined score of 213.9 ppg on the scoreboard. Meanwhile, MINNESOTA is 18-8 UNDER L/26 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts with the the average combined score ringing in at  204.9 ppg. MINNESOTA in 20 games when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season have seen a combined average of 211.7 ppg get scored.GOLDEN STATE in their L/52 games off an upset loss as a road favorite, have seen a combined average of 215.1 ppg go on the scoreboard and in their L/54 as favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points have seen 218.4 ppg go on the scoreboard. 

Considering long term trends and current form and physical ineffecincies, and matchup descrepencies,  taking a low side stance on this Total makes for a solid bet in my humble opinion. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Golden State Warriors lead the NBA in several offensive categories in road games, including points per game (115.2), field goal percentage (48.5) and assists (30.8) and I am betting on another offensive explosion here tonight. Meanwhile, Memphis has won 5 straight, and will have no choice but to reciprocate with some offense of their own, or be blown off the court  which  I am betting results in a total combined score that eclispes the number. It must be noted that the last time these teams met, only 199 total combined points were scored. But the caveat Im using here is based on a system, I implemented recently , that has had great results in beta form, and now its going live with this bet tonight. 

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to ( 209.5 - 210)  like the Grizzlies - after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less have cashed to the OVER 30 of the L/36 times for a powerful 83% conversion rate. 

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LONG BEACH ST is 15-3 UNDER L/18 in Saturday games with a combined average of 133 ppg scored. TEXAS is 13-2 UNDER L/15 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games with an average of 139.2 ppg get scored. College Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (LONG BEACH ST) - a lower tier team - shooting 42% or less with a defense of 45% or better on the season, in December games are a bankroll expanding 30-9 to the UNDER dating back to the 2011 campaign for a massive 80% conversion rate. 

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Gonzaga has been dominant to this point in the season, and despite of showing an explosive offense, have also be stingy on  defense allowing 64.6 ppg and 62.5 ppg as hosts. Here on their own home floor I expect Gonzaga slows down an inconsistent Washington side in what Im betting is a physical affair.

GONZAGA is 14-4 UNDER L/18 versus good shooting teams - making 45%  or more of their shots like Washington and are 11-3 UNDER against a 500 or better side with the combined average of both trends well below this total.GONZAGA is 14-4 UNDER L/18 in non-conference games with a combined average of 140.2 ppg getting scored.

College Hoops Home teams against the total Gonzaga - after 8 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) like Washington have gone under  37 of the L/45 times for a 82% conversion rate for under bettors.

The LA Clippers pride themselves on being able to play a top tier defensive game especially at home. The Clippers own the leagues top defensive rating , ( Notates Defensive Rating for players and teams - points allowed per 100 posessions.

Tonight against the most explosive offensive team in the league you can bet the Clips will be out to slow down the Dubs and make this a more physical and methodical game than the Warriors prefer , which will result in a Total combined score that stays on the low side of the number. 

LA CLIPPERS are 56-34 UNDER L/90  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 with the average combined score clicking in at 214 ppg and are 20-8 UNDER L/28 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with the  total combined average of 202.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. The Clippers are also 12-2 on the under in home games against top tier sides with a win % of .700 or better with a combined average of just 202.2 ppg getting scored.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER L/10 in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game dating back to last season with a combined average of 201.8 ppg getting scored. Golden State in their L/265 games, against a top tier team with a .700 or better record have seen a combined average of 205 ppg go on the scoreboard. GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 UNDER L/17 after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games with an average of 2013.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Clippers/Warriors - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG the under is 58-18 dating back to the 2011 campaign.

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The Magic are 3-1 SU on their current five-game road trip, including Sunday's 98-92 victory at the Detroit Pistons.  Meanwhile, Washington is on tired legs as they ended a three game road trip last night, with a hard fought come from behind win vs Brooklyn. Washington struggles on D, on most nights and now exhausted won;t have a lot in the tank to slow down their young and motivated opponents. It must be noted that WASHINGTON is 14-4 OVER  after playing 2 consecutive road games dating back to last season, with a combined average of 215.8 ppg going on the scoreboard and is 17-7 OVER  when playing on back-to-back days with an average combined score of 208.9 ppg clicking on the the board. Meanwhile, Orlando despite of playing some lower scoring games of late , should be able to light up the scoreboard here tonight, in what could be a more wide open game than usual for the Magic.

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Atlanta's defense has been floundering of late, and a concern for the coaching staff,as the team does not have the guns to score in bunches ranking 27th in Off rating ,  as is evident by scoring more than 96 points only 3 times in their L/12 trips to the hardwood . Tonight , against a Thunder team that can run and gun with the best teams in the NBA, Im betting a concerted effort by the Hawks to play heads up transitional ball will be on the game plan agenda. It must also be noted that Oklahoma City also owns a stringent D, that ranks 7th in the league in Defensive rating, which registers players and teams points allowed per 100 posessions.  Everything points to this contest staying on the low side of the number.

ATLANTA is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after 2 straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls this season with an average of 193.4 combined points going on the scoreboard. Hawks HC Budenholzer is 21-8 UNDER L/30 in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, with a combined average of 197.1 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Hawks - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games have gone under 35 of the L/46 times since the 2011 season. 

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Detroit has found some offense, of late and thats why we get a decent total to bet into here on the under.   The linesmkaers are  now over compensating for their recent offensive surge that seen them score 107 or more points in 5 of their L/6 games. The Pistons still maintain a soild defensive ranking listed 2nd in the league overall and the 24th ranked pace. Meanwhiile, Orlando has scored more than 95 points just once in their L/10 and remain conservative/ methodical  in their approach, and nothing changes today. The Magic rank 3rd in points allowed, and 29th in points scored, while they mantain a 25 ranked pace. ORLANDO is 7-0 UNDER L/7 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season and 12-4 L/16 versus sides that attempt 18 or more 3 pointers a game like Motown. Note: ORLANDO is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog this season with a combined average total score of 187.3 ppg going on the scoreboard.

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The Golden State Warriors showed their defensive vulnerabilities when they dropped a 132-127 double-overtime slug gest to the Houston Rockets on Thursday night. Now you can bet defense, was a key topic in the locker room and in practice the last couple of days, which will translate into a concerted effort on the court.( Under is 7-2-1 in Warriors last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game) Meanwhile, Phoenix has recently demonstrated an improved defense. Once statistically the worst defense in the league, the Suns allowed 107 or fewer points for the fifth time in their last seven games, and Im sure defense will once again be their key to try to slow Golden State explosive offense.

GOLDEN STATE is 29-12 UNDER L/41 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games witht he combined average of those tilts clicking in at 207.7 ppg.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Suns - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off an upset win as an underdog are 56-18 under for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

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CBB teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points like Troy - playing with 5 or 6 days rest, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 82-45 under dating back 5 seasons. TROY is 12-1 UNDER L/13 in all home games dating back to last season and s 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week.

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San Antonio had a 9 game winning streak , end in their last trip to the hardwood,  as they looked exhausted, in a 95-83 loss to Orlando at home Tuesday night. It is not easy in this league, to sustain a consistent tenacious level over the long haul, and physics has now caught up to the Spurs, during a heavy part of their schedule. Meanwhile, the Mavericks picked up a win Sunday, beating New Orleans 91-81 in a strong defensive performance. Defense was the mainstay of that victory, and nothing will change tonight for the Mavericks vs a superior side. The bottom line is that Dallas just does not have alot of scoring options, with Dirk Nowitzki out, so slowing this game down with slow methodical physical play gives them their best chance at being competitive. It must be noted that Dallas has scored more than 95 points just once in 9 games, and another low output looks like a strong option tonight in game that I am betting stays on the low side of the number.

SAN ANTONIO is 20-7 UNDER L/27 in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days . HC Carlisle of Dallas is 25-11 under in his L/37 games off an upset win as an underdog, with the average combined score clicking in at 184.7 ppg. 

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In their L/5 trips to the floor, the New Orleans Pelcians are ranking sixth in defensive rating (99.0) in the league. Their offense is hitting effectively, but its the D that stands out. Against a Dallas team averaging 89.4 ppg game at home on offnese Im betting on the Mavericks output to be muted once again. With that said, look for the  Mavs to try to slow this down to a crawll knowing that at this time out scoring the Pelicans is not an option. ( The Mavs have eclipsed the 95 point plateau on offense just twice in their L/ 12 trips to the floor)

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 199.5  Mavs - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, lower tier team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season 41-18 under for a 70% conversion rate on the Total for bettors.

Under is 7-2 in Pelicans last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 11-4 in Pelicans last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.NEW ORLEANS is 11-1 UNDER L/12 in road games versus lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game with an average of 186.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. In 14 games as an underdog this season, the average combined score of their games has rung in at 195.4 ppg. Under is 39-17-1 in Mavericks last 57 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

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Minnesota enters this game against Golden State on tired legs after  playing last night and than having to play break neck 4th quarter ball outscoring Phoenix 31-10 in the final period to end a three-game losing streak. Wiggins  played 41 of the 48 minutes and three other starters, including Towns, at least 35, which means running the floor tonight is not an option. Meanwhile, Golden State has won 10 in a row, and have shown a top tier two game in the process, as was evident last time out, vs the Lakers in a 109-85 win. No Golden State starter played more than 36 minutes in the wire-to-wire effort, so needless say the Dubs are fresh, and scoring against them or keeping them from running will be a difficult proposition. Thus, what I am betting happens is that the Wolves knowing the situation, will revert to trying to slow this game down, to a crawl ,with a more physical appraoch behind their young bodies. It must also be remembered that the Wolves HC Thibodeau is a defensive specialist and has gone seen his teams go under in  37 of their L/56 versus frantic teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season like Golden State with the combined score of those tilts ringing in at a combined average of 191.4 ppg. 

Minnesota in their L/8 when playing back to back games have seen a combined  average of 212.1 ppg go on the scoreboard.  Minnesota in their L/ 47 road games have seen a combined average,  of 208.9 ppg. 

GOLDEN STATE in their L/102  home games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 3 seasons have seen an average of 214 ppg go on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210  - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 shots/game or more), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots have stayed under at a 99-59 clip for a powerful 63% conversion rate.

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After the Miami Heat beat the host Memphis Grizzlies 90-81 on Friday night, the teams fly south for the home-and-home rematch on Saturday night at AmericanAirlines Arena. I am expecting another hard fought physical affair tonight in the rematch. Memphis is 25th in the NBA in scoring. Miami is 28th in the league in scoring, and scoring will once again be at a premium.

NBA teams like Memphis - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a top tier team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) like Miami has seen 116 of the L/182 games go under for a 63% conversion rate. 

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Miami enters this game ranked 3rd in D, in the league ad 27th in offense and 23rd in pace . Meanwhile, their opponents Philadelphia rank 24th in offense, and 29th in offensive rating, and 11th in pace. Using my own formula, this total and matchup consistencies/discrepencies  this total should be closer to 194.5 giving us some very nice cushion room , according to my data. This is a value total to the under ,in my humble opinion .

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I expect a tight defense first mindset to dictate this contest. All College Hoops teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 like Creighton and NC State - playing their 2nd road game in 3 days, in a game involving two top-level teams  with a 80% or better win percentage the under is 24-2 L/26 for a 92% conversion rate. 

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Detroit enters this game ranking 22nd in pace in the NBA and 25 th in offensive output, and 4th in defensive rating. This is a team that defends well and is very inconsistent of offense. Meanwhile, Cleveland is ranked 12th in pace and 13 in defensive rating, bot towards the middle of the league. The offense is 3rd in output, but with Motown unable to run and gun with Cleveland Van Gundy a smart coach knows what has to be done. Look for a slower more methodical approach from the Pistons and for their Cavs flow to be interrupted just enough for this contest to stay on the low side of the number. 

Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 Cleveland  - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games have gone under in 31 of the  L/36 times.

HC Van Gundy of Motown is 10-1 UNDER L/11 in road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.  HC Lue  of Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER L/11 after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. Both totals from these games were well below todays number. 

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CHAMPIONS CLASSIC - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY

Defensive breakdowns have been frustrating Kansas HC Self after his team allowed Indiana to connect for 15  treys from 3-point range. He wants his team to pay attention to defense in transition, and Im betting that will be a big part of his game plan tonight vs Krzyzewski's Duke. Meanwhile, dukes struggling with some of their big men being injured, and will be coherent to exhaustion issues, in what should be a physical game. So a more methodical approach by the Blue Devils must be expected, which I am betting leads to a total score that fails to eclipse the number. 

Neutral court teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points like Duke and Michigan State  - in November games. In Dukes L/9 neutral court games a average combined score of 157.3 ppg have gone on the scoreboard. KANSAS is 10-2 UNDER L/12 as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick with a combined average of score of 139.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.

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The Toronto Raptors and the Cleveland Cavaliers go head to head for the second time this season. In the first meeting the Cavs took a 94-91 victory. I am betting on another physical affair, where Defense takes center stage.  This will result in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. Note: Cavs are ranked 15th in pace and the Raptors 24th in the NBA. TORONTO is 10-1 UNDER L/11 in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread with an average of 184 combined points going on the scoreboard.CLEVELAND is 19-9 UNDER L/28 against Atlantic division opponents with an average combined score of 196.4 ppg getting scored. HC Lue is 9-0 UNDER L/9  after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread with a combined average score of 198.3 ppg going up on the board.

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The fast improving Hornets (6-2) are who rank 4th in defensive rating in the league and 6th in PPG allowed visit the defending champion Cavaliers (7-1) that rank near the middle of the league in pace, this Sunday afternoon in a interesting match-up. This is a Charlotte team on a upward trajectory . The Cavs knowing how fast the Hornets are I am betting will be methodical in their approach today and will try to slow this game down to crawl, and on the flips side, Charlotte's stingy D, will slow the Cavs ability to score in bunches, which will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse the number.
Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 road games.

Cavs HC Lue is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. NBA teams like Charlotte and Cleveland - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after scoring 105 points or more have gone under 43 of the 59 times.Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 like the Cavaliers - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a top-tier team (75% or more) playing a good team (60% to 75%) have gone under 29 of the L39 times

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It was just over a week ago that the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder went head to head for the first time this season. The aforementioned game was played in  Los Angeles with the visitors snatching a hard fought 85-83 win. Defense was the name of the game in that first battle, and I am betting the formula for both sides does not change tonight.

All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Clippers  are 70-40 under l/110- revenging a home loss vs opponent, off 2 or more consecutive home wins.Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 like the Thunder - a upper tier team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 121-64 on the under for a 65% conversion rate on the Total. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 UNDER L/10 versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43% or less with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 194.5 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 16-1 UNDER L/17 after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games dating back to last season with a combined average of 193.9 ppg going on the board. OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-2 UNDER L/17 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points with both sides combining for an average of 191.1 ppg.HC Donovan is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots which did happen in their last game.

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The Rockets enter this game playing better D, this season overall,  which was a focal point of the coaching staff in the off  season.   In their first 6 games , 3 opponents have been held under triple digits. In their last game against Atlanta the rocketmen lost 112-97, and now I expect they bounce back with a more concerted defensive effort tonight vs Washington. This will be their 4th straight road game, so they will be on tired legs and also in shape to run and gun. ( Note: Under is 10-4 in Rockets last 14 road games)

 Meanwhile, the Wizards after three sloppy Defensive efforts to begin their season, have held their L/2 opponents to 92, and 88 points respectively, and a stingy repeat performance won't be surprising.Under is 14-5 in Wizards last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER L/8 as a road underdog of 3 points or less dating back to last season with a combined average of 204.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Washington.

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Phoinex ranks 23 of 30 teams in offensive effeciency. Meanwhile The pelicans rank 29 in offensive rating. New Orleans versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 33% or less  of their attempts spanning a 20 game sample size dating back to last season, have seen an average of 206.2 ppg go on the scoreboard, giving us some value vs this posted total. PHOENIX is 29-13 UNDER L/42 after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games. Also from a league wide NBA trends data base : All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like the Pelcians- after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a lower tier side  winning 25% or less of their games on the season have gone under 23 of the L/27 times.

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The Clippers relied on defense to roll past the Utah Jazz 88-75 in their home opener Sunday, and will once again center on controlling tempo in this event vs a Oklahoma City side that likes to run and gun. Look for another concerted defensive effort from the Cliipers and for their efforts to result in a Total combined score that remains on the low side of the number.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-5 UNDER L/24 versus poor passing teams, averaging 20 or less assists/game.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game with an average 203 ppg going on the scoreboard.LA CLIPPERS are 30-18 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 dating back to last season. LA CLIPPERS are 12-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points with a combined average of 190.9 ppg going on the board.LA CLIPPERS are 17-4 UNDER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points with a combined average og 195.2 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 UNDER L/21 in home games against Northwest division opponents with na average of 195.8 ppg getting scored. LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 UNDER  in home games after scoring 110 points or more which happened in a 116-98 win last time out, with an average of 193.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.

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The Kings took a  113-94 win as underdogs, opening-night  at Phoenix on Tuesday and played some exrtremely good D, allowing the Suns just 38 first half points. After allowing a league high 109.1 ppg on defense last season, playing better in transistion has become a focal point for improvement for the Kings. Tonight, knowing how explosive their opponent is defense will once again come to the forefront. Meanwhile, we all know that playing strong D, is a key for the Spurs, as was evident when they held the Golden State Warriors potent offense to just 100 points in their wild 129-100 victory opener. From a league wide trends perspective it must be noted that  All NBA teams like the Kings and Spurs where the total is 200 to 209.5  - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more have gone under 31 of the L/40 times. SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in road games after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more with ana verage combined score of 181.8 ppg.

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NY K new HC Jeff Hornacek continues to look forward to implementing his uptempo style of basketball into a triangle system that Phil Jackson insists on continuing to be used. I personally believe the HC  may have problems getting the most out of the system with the personnel he has. Also with the linesmakers more than aware of how the public will perceive this ,  they will raise this total past where it should be, thus giving some room for sharp money to step in. Overall I expect despite of emotions involved in raising a championship banner, that the home side , are well aware of their run and gun opponents intentions and will be ready to slow the flow down to suit their intentions. 

NEW YORK is 30-15 L/45 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 200 . CLEVELAND is 32-14 UNDER L/46 against Atlantic division opponents. The L/7 meetings in this series have stayed under the Total. Under is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 overall.Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.Under is 23-9 in Cavaliers last 32 vs. NBA Atlantic. From a NBA wide perspective , All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5  - good ball handling team like Cleveland from last season that  committed 14 or less turnovers/game are 101-61 on the under in a huge sample size for a hefty 63% conversion rate. 

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Im betting this will be a hard fought game, but Im also betting on Golden State doing what they do best and that is score with their down town 3 point connections ( Curry and Thompson) and for the Cleveland Cavaliers to have no choice but to keep pace with some explosive offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court. This will lead to a Total combined score that will see this Total eclipsed. 

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Cleveland has proven that they cannot run and gun with the defending champs consistently, and if they hope to somehow make a comeback in this series, against the Dubs , their DEFENSE will have to be  the key to their game plan. Tonight I expect LeBron and company will be out to make life physically painful for the Warriors and for the final score of this tilt to end up on the low side of the number. 

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The Warriors defensive effecicney in back to back lopsided home victories to start this series , will continue here on the road, and probably even more physical intensity will be planned on being used tonight as the Cavaliers are expected to throw everything including the kitchen sink at them tonight. The Warriors under rated  DEFENSE, DEFENSE , DEFENSE and more defense will help keep this game on the low side of the Totals number. 

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