After scanning the UFC 328 card tonight in Newark and hunting for that one underdog who actually feels like he’s got a real shot at cashing, I’m landing directly on Joshua Van as the defending flyweight champion against Tatsuro Taira in the co-main event. Yeah, he’s sitting around +140 on the moneyline, which means the books are giving you decent payout potential on a guy who just won the belt not that long ago. I’ve been watching flyweight title fights for years, and there’s something about first-time defenses that consistently creates betting value, history shows underdog champions have retained their strap about 63 percent of the time across the last couple of decades. It’s not a lock, obviously, but the numbers and the matchup both point to Van being the kind of live dog worth riding.

What I like most about Van is how he’s built for these chaotic, high-output scraps that define the 125-pound division. At just 24 years old and already 16-2, he’s got this ridiculous 8.8 strikes-per-minute pace paired with rock-solid 81 percent takedown defense. Taira rolls in at 18-1 and is a legit grappling specialist who wants to drag things to the mat and squeeze the life out of you, but he’s never faced anyone who can stuff shots at Van’s level while still lighting up the scoreboard on the feet. Don’t get me wrong, Taira is no slouch and could absolutely make it ugly if he gets top control early, but Van’s recent run, capped by that lightning-quick finish to claim the title, feels like momentum you can actually bank on. Flyweight bouts have this sneaky tendency to go the distance more often than people expect, and when they do, the judges have been kind to high-volume strikers lately. That’s the quiet trend I keep seeing play out in recent title fights: the favorite gets overvalued on name power, while the dog with the better tools for a long night sneaks through.

Look, I’m not here pretending every underdog story ends in glory, UFC cards are full of heartbreak, but this one just feels different. Van isn’t some faded vet hoping for one last miracle; he’s young, explosive, and technically sound enough to keep Taira guessing. The flyweight division has always been a little wild west anyway, where one perfectly timed sprawl or counter can flip the script. If you’re building a card tonight and want that personal favorite underdog play that doesn’t scream reckless longshot, Van is the guy I’m actually excited about. He’s got the physical tools, the recent form, and that first-defense historical edge on his side.

Bet smart, shop the best number you can find, and remember the house always has an edge for a reason, none of us are getting rich overnight, this is a marathon not a sprint. But if one of these dogs is barking loud enough to listen to, it’s Joshua Van in Newark tonight

In the co-main event spotlight at middleweight, Reinier de Ridder emerges as a compelling underdog pick at +210, leveraging his proven grappling dominance against Caio Borralho's more measured approach, especially in a three-round format where endurance and control can swing the odds. De Ridder, a towering 6-foot-4 fighter with a judo base, has secured 13 submissions in his 21 career victories, finishing 86 percent of his wins overall, which highlights his ability to capitalize on ground opportunities, often transitioning seamlessly from clinch work along the fence to back takes or chokes. Borralho, while boasting a solid 17-2 record and a 56 percent striking accuracy, has shown vulnerabilities in prolonged grappling exchanges, as evidenced by his recent unanimous decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov where he absorbed multiple takedowns and struggled to dictate pace on the mat.

Recent betting trends in UFC middleweight bouts favor grapplers like de Ridder in underdog spots, with 42 percent of +200 or higher underdogs pulling off upsets in the division over the past two years when facing opponents reliant on volume striking, particularly in fights where the favorite averages under one takedown per round, a stat that aligns with Borralho's modest 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes. De Ridder, conversely, lands 0.79 takedowns per round on average, using his length to initiate clinches and disrupt rhythm, as seen in his upset win over former champion Robert Whittaker where he controlled over seven minutes of ground time, frustrating a superior striker through persistent pressure. Both men enter off losses, but de Ridder's defeat to Brendan Allen came via a narrow split decision after he nearly submitted the American in the third round, underscoring his late-fight resilience, whereas Borralho's setback exposed gaps in his defensive wrestling against aggressive chain attempts.

From a stylistic angle, this matchup plays into de Ridder's strengths in the clinch, where he averages 1.5 more significant strikes in close range per fight compared to Borralho, often mixing knees to the body that soften opponents before dragging them down, a tactic that could exploit Borralho's 63 percent striking defense which drops notably when backed against the cage. Betting data shows that in three-round middleweight contests featuring a grappling specialist as the underdog, the fight goes to the ground in 68 percent of cases, leading to 55 percent upset rates when the favorite, like Borralho, has finished fewer than half his wins, relying instead on decisions in seven of his 17 victories. De Ridder's experience as a former double champion in ONE Championship adds another layer, having faced diverse styles across promotions, giving him an edge in adapting to Borralho's karate-influenced footwork, which, while evasive, has been neutralized by persistent forward pressure in past bouts.

Ultimately, the value lies in de Ridder's path to victory through ground control or a potential submission, especially if he can weather early striking volume and turn the tide in rounds two and three, a common trend in underdog wins where grapplers average 4.2 minutes of control time to steal decisions or force finishes. With similar striking output ,both landing around 4.43 significant strikes per minute, the differentiator boils down to de Ridder's superior takedown volume and finishing rate, making him a live bet at +210 in a division where stylistic clashes like this have rewarded sharp underdog backers consistently.

UFC returns to Houston for an electrifying Fight Night card at the Toyota Center, featuring a middleweight showdown in the main event, bettors are eyeing value in underdogs and props that highlight stylistic mismatches, with the main card kicking off at 8:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. In the welterweight co-main event, Uros Medic steps up as a +170 underdog against Geoff Neal, a matchup where Medic's explosive striking power could exploit Neal's recent vulnerabilities, considering Neal has suffered five losses in his last eight outings, including a first-round knockout in his most recent fight, while absorbing 5.48 significant strikes per minute with only a 57% striking defense. Medic, on the other hand, boasts a 100% finish rate across his career, landing 5.53 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy, and he's riding a wave of back-to-back first-round knockouts, which aligns with a betting trend favoring younger, high-output strikers against fading veterans like Neal, who at 35 years old has shown diminished durability in prolonged exchanges. This angle makes Medic a compelling upset pick, especially in a division where underdogs with superior speed and power have cashed at a 42% clip in similar veteran-vs-prospect scenarios over the past two years, potentially leading to a quick stoppage

Royval will face flyweight rising star Joshua Van as part of the UFC 317 main card on June 28 inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Brandon Royval was supposed to fight Manel Kape, but Kape pulled out due to a foot injury.

Former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight title challenger, Brandon Royval, brings real edge to every single fight and is 6-1 in his L/7 fights  and is crafty and owns great submission moves. The 17-7 fighter seems  not  to get a lot of respect, but he deserves it and Im betting on him cashing for us on plus odds tonight. I know Van comes at his opponents with extraordinary amount of strikes ,but Royval wont easily be flustered he has bring alot of experience against veery tough fighters into this fight. 

UFC - Brandon Royval to win

 Gregor “The Gift” Gillespieis 13-1 in his career with his last fight ending in a  KO vs Kevin Lee.He has six knockouts and five submissions to his credit in his 13 wins and is a serious fighter who deserves respect as mid range favorite vs Diego Ferreria . 

Gillespie to win