Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-30-22 | Rays v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
RANGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Rays have the better starting pitcher on the hill, but I like the Rangers to dig deep here and deliver. Drew Rasmussen (5-1, 2.68 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Glenn Otto (2-2, 4.91) gets the nod for the home side. Note that Texas is 6-4 the L10 in this series. The Rangers are surging, playing their best baseball of the year, as they're going for their 5th straight win tonight. Texas has scored 23 runs at home over its last 3 games. Look for that impressive offense to once again, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Texas on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-30-22 | Twins -158 v. Tigers | 5-7 | Loss | -158 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
8* TWINS (DESTRUCTION) Often I'll break down a matchup completely, looking at various stats and trends. Other times though I feel a "simpler" approach is the best way to look at a contest. And that's the case here. This is a major starting pitching mismatch and I'm not expecting any upsets this afternoon. In fact, the Twins should/could be much bigger favs in this spot. Dylan Bundy (3-2, 4.54 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Beau Brieske (0-4, 5.04), gets the nod for the home side. Both teams are dealing with injury issues. That makes the men on the mound that much more important this afternoon. Look for Bundy to deliver in this favorable spot; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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05-29-22 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) While I do think the outright win is possible, I feel more comfortable here laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pockets. Yes, the Astros are out for revenge after dropping the first 2 games of this series, but Seattle is still the "hungrier" team in my estimation. Houston hands the ball to Luis Garcia (3-3, 3.38 ERA), while the home side counters with southpaw Marco Gonzalez (3-3, 3.74.) These starters are a "wash." Look for the surging M's to keep the pedal to the metal on Sunday; the play though is Seattle on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-29-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | 3-7 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
8* ROYALS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. Kansas City hands the ball to Zack Greinke (0-3, 4.53 ERA), while the home side counters with Sonny Gray (2-1, 2.60.) Greinke got out to a hot start, but he's cooled off a bit since. Here's a great opportunity to get untracked though against this middle of the pack Twins offense. Gray's sparkling numbers appear unsustainable for much longer. I say a step-back is in order here for the veteran. While I do think the outright win is possible, my official recommendation is indeed KC on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-28-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -180 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (RD) I play favorites. I play underdogs. I play totals. Here I think we're in fact getting great value laying the slightly higher price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Congrats to everyone that joined me with the Mets last night, my 10* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR. Saturday though I'm going the other way, as I think this one'll be decided late, or even in extras! These starters are evenly matched. Zach Wheeler is 1-3 with a 3.65 ERA for the Phillies, while Taijuan Walker is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA for the Mets. Regression seems imminent for the veteran Walker though. I'm banking on this being a very tight game, that's why I'm laying the price with the Phillies on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-28-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
8* CARDS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Cardinals dropped the opener of this series by a score of 4-3, before then bouncing back in yesterday's 4-2 victory. We've had a couple of lower-scoring tighter battles to open this series, and all signs point to a similar result here as well. Matthew Liberatore is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA for the Cards. This is his 2nd career outing. He gave up 4 runs over 5 innings to the Pirates in his first start, striking out 3 as well. I expect him to settle down here. Adrian Houser is 3-4 with a 2.98 ERA for the Brewers. He gave up 1 run over 6 innings vs. the Braves in his last outing. Off B2B gems though, I think regression is now in order. In a contest that I see being decided late or in extra innings, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the Cards on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-27-22 | Phillies v. Mets -125 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* METS (GOY) After having yesterday off, and off back-to-back losses to San Francisco here at home, I love the way this one sets up for Carlos Carrasco and the Mets. It was just the second series all year that the Mets have lost. They haven't lost 3 straight games yet this year and I don't expect that trend to be broken tonight. Carrasco is 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA this season. He faces Bailey Falter, who is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA. In 3 career starts vs. the Phillies, he's 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA. Philadelphia broke a 2 game slide with a satisfying 4-1 win at Atlanta last night. Expect an immediate return to mediocrity here for the Phillies though as they face this rested and determiend home side. Considering all of the different factors working in favor of New York here, I'd consider this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is the Mets! AAA Sports |
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05-26-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Great value here on the home side with the runline option. The 29-14 Dodgers are at the 23-22 Diamondbacks. The Dodgers enter off a 1-0 loss to the Nationals. This is the final series of a 10-day, 3-city road trip for LA. Arizona will look to take advantage, as it comes in on top form, having won 5 of its last 6. The D-Backs had yesterday off to prepare for this one, after sweeping the Royals in 2 games. The Dodgers go with Mitch White tonight. He's 1-0 with a 6.17 ERA. He gave up 3 runs over 2 1/3's innings vs. the Phillies on Saturday. Arizona goes with Humberto Castellanos, who is 3-1 with a 4.29 ERA. In 4 starts this month he's gone 2-0 with an 18:3 K:W. While the outright is possible, the value is just too good to turn down for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Arizona on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-25-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Cleveland won the opener by a score of 6-1, before the Astros bounced back with a 7-3 victory last night. These starting pitchers are evenly matched though and I'm expecting a much more competitive battle in the finale. Cal Quantrill is 1-2 with a 3.48 ERA for Cleveland. He most recently allowed 1 run over 7 innings in a win over the Reds. Christian Javier is 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA for the Astros. He gave up 1 run over 6 innings to the Raners in his last outing. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ART OF WAR) These teams have sure been playing to several high-scoring affairs of late, but all signs finally point to a "duel" here on Tuesday night. The Royals go with Jonathan Heasley, who is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA. He's been better than his win/loss record would indicate. And then Zac Gallen has been a bright spot all year for the D-Backs, as he's 3-0 with a tiny 1.14 ERA. As I said off the top, this one has all the making of a classic "pitchers duel;" the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-23-22 | Guardians v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
10* OVER (BOB) These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring "unders" of late, but I expect those trends to end in the opener of this three-game series. The Guardians are off a 4-2 loss to the Tigers, their 4th loss in their last 6 games. Zach Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA for the Guardians this year, but he's 0-2 with a ballooned 6.86 ERA over his last 4 starts. Houston sees Luis Garcia toe the slab. He's 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA. Garcia took a step back in his last outing though, allowing 5 runs off 5 hits over 4 innings in a loss to Boston on Wednesday. Two teams in dire need of a victory here. Two starters who are on the decline. Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. AAA Sports |
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05-22-22 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) The first 3 games of this 4 game series have all flown well "over" the number, but on Sunday in the finale we can expect a classic "duel" finally. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but each is desperate for a victory here today. I really like Logan Gilbert here for Seattle and I think he'll settle the M's down here. He's 4-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 51 K's. Boston counters with Nathan Eovaldi, who is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA. The totals on these games keep creeping higher and higher, and today's is now just too large. We'll go the other way here on the total in the fourth game, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-21-22 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
10* OVER (IL TOY) Toronto has now seen the total go "under" the number in 6 straight after yesterday's tight 2-1 home win over the Reds. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game here finally on Saturday (it's interesting to note that the Jays though have seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of their last 10 after playing to 5 or more straight "unders" in a row. The Reds have seen the total go "over" in 6 of their last 8 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 1 or less runs in. Alek Manoah is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA for the Jays. Regression is imminent in my opinion. Hunter Greene though is just 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA for the Reds. Look for these starters to get chased early and for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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05-20-22 | Reds +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* REDS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Both teams are struggling at the plate. I think this opening matchup is much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I like Luis Castillo here for the REds starting. He 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA, but he's faced Toronto 7 times in his career and has gone 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA. The Jays only average 3.68 RPG, so here's a perfect opponent for Castillo to get untracked against. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and who has never faced Cincinnati. I say this one gets decided late, or even in extras; because of that, let's grab the Reds on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-19-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Rangers fly in under the radar here. They're off a 3-game sweep of the Angels, which featured a dramatic walk off win on Wednesday. The Astros come in with little momentum after going just 1-2 in Boston. Texas plays with revenge here after losing 3 of 4 at home to the Astros at the start of the season. But this Rangers line-up is raking now, led by Corey Seager with 8 home runs. Glenn Otto is 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA for the Rangers. He was lit up at Boston in his last start, but I think he settles down here. Framber Valdez is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA for the Astrros. Texas comes in with confidence. It's seeing the ball well. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing this; the play is Texas on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-18-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
10* TIGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Tigers won the first game of this series by a score of 3-2, beore Tampa responded in yesterday's 8-1 victory. For the finale, I'm expecting a much tighter game. Eduardo Rodriguez gets the call for the Tigers, and he just threw 6.2 shutout innings in a win over Baltimore in his last outing. The home side counters with Drew Rasmussen, who also comes in off a gem, holding the Jays to just one run over 5.2 innings of work. These pitchers are evenly matched. As stated off the top, all signs point to this contest perhaps even going into extra innings; beause of that, let's lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket! AAA Sports |
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05-17-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 0-3 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
8* MARINERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Toronto took Game 1 of this series last night by a score of 6-2, but I expect a much tighter affair here on Tuesday. Both teams are in need of a win here, but in a contest that I think'll be decided late or in extra innings, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The bottom line here is, I think Logan Gilbert is the correct call in this starting pitching matchup over Jose Berrios. Gilbert is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA, while Berrios is 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA. The M's have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one; the play is Seattle on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-16-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (GOW) The Angels just took 3 of 4 from the A's over the weekend, while the Rangers dropped 2 of 3 to Boston. Texas was blown out in the first 2, but then bounced back with a blowout win of its own on Sunday. LA took 3 of 4 in early April, so the Rangers are out for revenge this week. Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the visitors, an dhe owns a 2.45 ERA over 5 starts. He'll be opposed by Jon Gray, who owns a 5.51 ERA. Texas has actually done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last 9 after scoring 10 or more runs in its previous game. This one will be decided late, or even in extras, so I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the Rangers on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-16-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 2-6 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
9* MARINERS (RL BOB) The Mariners are 16-19 and the Blue Jays are 18-17. Toronto is off a series loss in Tampa, and fell 3-0 on Sunday. The M's took 2 of threa the Mets over the weekend. Chris Flexen is just 1-5, despite a decent 4.24 ERA for the Mariners this year. Overall the Mariners have posted a decent 3.74 collective ERA. The Jays return home after a poor 2-7 road trip. Yusei Kikuchi is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA for the Jays. I believe these starters are a "wash." In a scenario like that, and in a contest that I expect to be decided late (or perhaps even in extra innings), let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Seattle on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-16-22 | Yankees v. Orioles +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The lowly Baltimore Orioles won't be lacking for motivation today after 3 straight losses to Detroit over the weekend. The Yanks come in complacent after winning 7 of their la 10, including a 5-1 win at the White Sox yesterday. Luis Severino is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA over 6 starts for New York, while Kyle Bradish is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA over 4 starts for the Orioles. Baltimore though has done exceptionally well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 ATS in its last 9 at home. Conversely, the Evil Empire has gone just 4-6 ATS in its last 10 overall. Look for Baltimore to jump on on this complacent Yanks side and to possibly even win outright; the play is the Orioles on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-15-22 | Giants v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* CARDINALS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) San Fran won the opener 8-2 and then St. Louis won 4-0 yesterday. I expect a much tighter game here in the finale, and that's why I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. Carlos Rodon is 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA for the Giants, but I expect regression to kick in sooner, rather than later. The Cards counter with veteran Adam Wainwright, who is 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and who I like here in friendly confines. Note as well that St. Louis is actually 8-3 in its last 11 off a shutout home victory. For all the reasons listed above, the play is St. Louis on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) After 2 straight really high-scoring games to open this series, I'm expecting much more of a "duel" here on Saturday. Philadelphia has inexplicably taken the first 2 games, winning 9-7 and 12-10. The Dodgers have actually seen the total go "under" in 8 of their last 10 in trying to avenge 2 straight losses against an opponent. Ranger Suarez is 3-1 with a 3.68 ERA for the Phillies. He'll be opposed by Julio Urias, who is 2-2 with a 2.10 ERA. The numbers/trends point to a lower-scoring affair, and all signs point to a classic "duel" as well. This number is indeed a tad high now, so the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-14-22 | Yankees v. White Sox +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
8* WHITE SOX RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The White Sox had won 7 of 8 before dropping the first 2 of this series. They fell 15-7 in the first game and 10-4 yesterday. I expect a much tighter affair here. Jordan Montgomery is 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA for the Yanks. He's been solid. Dallas Keuchel is 2-3 with a 6.86 ERA for the White Sox. He's uncharacteristically struggled so far. Let's not overreact to either starters' performance to this point though. Note that Chicago is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to avenge B2B losses to an opponent. To say this is a "revenge" game as well would be an understatement, as the Yanks have won 8 of the L9 in this series. I say this one comes down to the wire; grab the ChiSox on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-13-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies on the runline last night and did not need the extra 1.5 runs. This game on Friday between the Mariners and Mets may follow suit, but once again the value here with getting the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket is just too good to turn down in my opinion. Max Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA for the Mets, while Marco Gonzalez is 1-4 with a 3.91 ERA for the Mariners. The Mets are 9-0-1 in series this year, but regression is imminent at some point. Both starters are coming off losses. I think they're more evenly matched than what this large line is suggesting though. This one gets decided late or even in extras, so let's grab the Mariners on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-12-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Dodgers | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
8* PHILLILES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Philadelphia won 4-2 at Seattle yesterday, taking 2 of 3 from the Mariners, I believe the hungry visiting side will keep the momentum rolling here. The Dodgers just lost 2 of 3 to the Pirates, including yesterday's 5-3 setback. These pitchers are a "wash" in my mind essentially. The Phillies see Zach Wheeler toe the slab, while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson. Wheeler is 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA, while Anderson is 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA. In fact, regression appears to be in order for Anderson in my estimation. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the Phillies on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-11-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES (IL RL GOY) The bottom line here is, I believe that the over-achieving Miles Mikolas is poised for some regression here after his sparkling start for the Cardinals. The Orioles have been decent, especially on the mound. They're 4th in the AL East currently. Spencer Watkins gets the nod to start things off for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 3.22 ERA over 5 starts this season, posting 10 K's and 10 walks. Mikolas is 2-1 with a 1.53 ERA over 6 games, with 28 K's and 7 walks. Interestinly though, the Cards are just 1-6 in their last 7 vs. the AL East. Watkins has been at his best on the road with a 2.70 ERA and in a contest that I believe could even go to extra innings, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the exrta 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the Orioles on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-10-22 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* UNDER (DESTRUCTION) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games leading into this one, but we can expect that direction to change tonight finally. Milwaukee has seen the total go "over" in 6 of its last 7 (including in yesterday's 10-5 defeat here.) The Brewers have lost 3 straight, and they've seen the total go "under" in 6 of their last 8 after three or more losses in a row. Cincinnati enters having seen the total go "over" in 8 straight. Let's not overreact to these starters early numbers. The home side goes with Hunter Greene, who is 1-4 with an 8.71 ERA. He gave up 5 home runs to the Brewers last Thursday. Greene is the Reds' top rookie prospect and I expect him to settle down here in the rematch. The Brewers go with Freddy Peralta, who is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA so far this season. Peralta has to be feeling confident today though, as he's 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA in 15 career games vs. Cincinnati. All signs point to a lower-scoring "under" between these teams finally on Tuesday! AAA Sports |
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05-09-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (GOW) Cleveland has won 7 of its last 8. It just took 3 of 4 from Toronto. The Guardians fly in under the radar here as well. The White Sox have won 5 in a row. They just finished sweeping the Red Sox, all tight games, including yesterday's 3-2 victory. Zach Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.44 ERA for the Guardians, while Michael Kopech is 0-0 with a 1.17 ERA for the White Sox. Two good pitchers. Let's not overreact to their numbers at this point of the season, and instead classify them as a "wash." Chicago is overpriced here if that's the case. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-08-22 | Nationals +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10* NATIONALS RUNLINE (BOB) Washington managed the 7-3 win here yesterday. I think the home side is overvalued here as well on Sunday, and I expect some regression here finally as well from Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval is 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA so far this season for LA, but I expect his sparkling numbers to take a hit today. At the very least, I expect Erick Fedde to match Sandoval inning for inning. Fedde is 2-2 with 22 K's and 10 walks over 25 frames of work. He's also 3-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his career against the Junior Circuit. This one will be decided late or in extra innings, the play is the visitors on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-07-22 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -158 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Seattle won't be lacking for motivation here after losing 9 of its last 10. That includes both games to open this series. First they lost 4-3, then 8-7 last night. The M's allowed 3 runs in the top of the 9th and scored just 1 themselves to lose by 1 run again. While I do think an outright is possible here, I'm going to lay what I think is a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in our back pocket. The Rays come in on the other end of the spectrum, primed for a letdown after 5 straight wins. Drew Rasmussen is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA for the Rays, while Marco Gonzalez is 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA for the Mariners. These starters are essentially a "wash" in my eyes. In what should be another competitive affair, let's look for the desperate Mariners to find a way to deliver on the runline option tonight! AAA Sports |
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05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games of late, but I think that'll change today with these two "stud" starters facing off in Arizona. The D-Backs had yesterday off, while the Rockies enter off a high-scoring 9-7 win at home over Washington. But as I mentioned off the start, I expect these two starters to steal most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The Rockies go with Chad Kuhl, who is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA. Merrill Kelly is 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA this season for the Diamondbacks. Interestingly, each has struggled against his respective opponent today in the past, but to that I say: that was then, and this is now! These two starters enter on top form and I expect that to help in driving this O/U number "under" the total once it's all said and done; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-03-22 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra innings, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The Giants hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, who is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA, while the Dodgers counter with Julio Urias, who is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA. The Giants won 10 of 19 games in the season series last year and 6 of 10 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers ended San Fran's season in a 5-game NL Division series, so it's payback time tonight. I like Rodon to, at the very least, match Urias inning for inning. Because of that, the play here today is the Giants on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-02-22 | Rays v. A's +1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (GOM) Tampa Bay lost 2 of 3 to the Twins over the weekend and it's now scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of its last 9 games. Oakland fans can empathize, as the A's are looking to rebound from 3 straight losses to the Guardians. They've now lost 6 of their last 8. Oakland took 3 of 4 from Tampa from April 11-14 and I expect the home side to find a way to deliver in the opener here as well. Tampa goes with Drew Rasmussen, who is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA. He's off the best start of his career, going 6 shutout innings and striking out 9 in a win over the Mariners. Regression is now imminent after that gem in my opinion. The A's see Daulton Jefferies, who is 1-3 with 3.26 ERA, toe the slab. He gave up 5 runs over 4 innings in a loss to the Giants on Tuesday. I look for him to settle down here at home, where he posted a 2.90 ERA last year. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extra's let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Oakland on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-01-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (BEST OF BEST) Chicago comes in desperate for a win, as it's dropped 8 of its last 10. That includes both games to open up this series, falling 11-1 and 9-1. I'm expecting a much better effort here from the Cubs on Sunday. Milwaukee enters complacent after 5 straight wins. Corbin Burnes is 1-0 with a 1.75 ERA for the Brewers. Regression is imminent in my estimation though. Marcus Stroman is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA so far for Chicago. I say that Stroman settles down here and gets back on track with his best effort of the season. Brewers' star Christian Yellich said it best himself after yesterday's win: "The thing about baseball is you have to keep grinding, keep putting in the work and keep trying to get better." Expect that logic to pay dividends for the visiting side today though. That said, let's grab the Cubs on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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05-01-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Toronto took the first game by a score of 2-1. I had the Astros on the runline in that one. Houston then responded with an 11-7 victory yesterday. I think the Astros are the sharp wager again here, but once again I'll recommend to play on the runline option. Houston goes with Framber Valdez, who is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA, while Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman, who is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA. Guasman faced the Astros once last year and allowed 3 earned runs and 6 hits with 2 walks over 4 1/3's frames of work and in 4 career outings against them he's just 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA. Valdez is just 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA in 2 career starts against Toronto. These pitchers are a "wash." Look for Houston's strong bullpen and hitting line-up to put it in another position to win this game outright; that said, the official play is to grab the Astros on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-30-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Chicago looks to bounce back after yesterday's humbling 11-1 defeat. Note that the Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to revenge an 8 runs or greater road loss against an opponent though. Milwaukee on the other hand is interestingly just 2-6 in its last 8 after a 10 runs or greater victory in its last outing. Chicago sends lefty Justin Steele to the hill, and he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA, while the home side counters with Eric Lauer, who is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA. Lauer though is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 4 career outings against the Cubs, which includes 3 starts. I like the hungrier visiting side here, but for this price, I can't turn down the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Chicagao on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-30-22 | Braves v. Rangers +1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
9* RANGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Bryce Elder is 1-2 with a 4.30 ERA for the Braves. He'll have hundreds of friends and family members in the stands today watching the Texas native. Dane Dunning is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA for the Rangers and he'll look to play spoiler on the rookie. Elder had a decent debut, but in 2 starts since he's struggled big time, not getting past the 5th inning, walking 11 and striking out 7 over a cominbed 9 innings of work. Dunning makes his 5th start of the year and he's held his opposition to 3 or fewer runs in each of those outings. Look for Dunning to go deeper than his counterpart and for the Rangers to make this one exciting; grab Texas on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-30-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Houston's offense got back on track in a big way in yesterday's 11-7 victory. I think it can keep the foot on the gas here. But for this reasonable mid-sized price, I think we're getting unreal value on the visitors on the runline option. Luis Garcia is 1-0 with a 4.60 ERA with 14 K's over 12 innings for Houston. Garcia coughted up 5 runs off 5 hits with 6 K's over 6 innings in what turned out to be a no-decision vs. the Jays on Sunday. He's 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 2 career outings vs. Toronto though. The home side counters with the erratic Jose Berrios, who is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA this season, but who is a sub-par 3-3 with a 5.46 ERA in six career starts vs. Houston. I think an outright victory is possible, but in the end let's take on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-29-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think that Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Madison Bumgarner is 0-1 with a 1.00 ERA for Arizona, while Adam Wainwright is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA for the Cards. Arizona sneaks in under the radar here after winning 3 of its last 5. Bumgarner gave up just 1 run over 5 innings in his last outing. In his last start Wainwright was shelled for 4 runs off 8 hits over 5 innings. Recent form is a factor that's being overlooked here and we're going to take advantage. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Arizona on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-29-22 | Mariners v. Marlins +1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) In a game that I believe will be decided late, or even in extra innings, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The Mariners hand the ball to Matt Brash, who is 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA. He's a rookie with 3 career appearances and who has yet to pitch past the 5th inning. The home side counters with Elieser Hernandez, who is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA. He's never faced Seattle. I like Hernandez here though, who has a 6.05 ERA on the road, but a 3.60 ERA at home. The Marlins are riding a 5 game win streak, while the M's have lost 2 in a row. Great value here getting the extra run-and-a-half; the play is Miami on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-28-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -142 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
8* JAYS (SPECIAL) This is a 4 game series, and after taking the first two, the Jays fell 7-1 yesterday. Note though that Toronto is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent that held it to one or fewer runs. Garrett Whitlock is 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA for the Red Sox, while Alex Mahoah is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA for the Jays. Manoah gets the nod at home here for sure. Whitlocks numbers are unsustainable and major regression is in order here. Considering the above info, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger; the play is Toronto! AAA Sports |
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04-27-22 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* OVER Astros/Rangers. While the first two games of this series have fallen "under" the number, all signs point to the "grudge match" being a much higher-scoring contest. Texas won 6-2 in the first game, while Houston bounced back in yesterday's 5-1 victory. Texas has now seen the total go "under" in four straight, which is significant to note in our case as the Rangers have seen the total go "over" in 9 of their last 12 after playing to 3 or more straight "overs" in a row. Christian Javier is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Astros (has made 3 relief appearances.) The Rangers see Glen Otto toe the slabe and he's 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. These early sparkling numbers are unrealistic and unsustainable. Look for the regression to be swift for each. Considering all of the above information, this number is a little low in my opinion, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-27-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
8* TOTAL on the UNDER Red Sox/Jays. These teams have played to a couple higher-scoring games to open this series, but I expect a lower-scoring "duel" here on Wednesday. The Red Sox go with Michael Wacha, and he's 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA so far this season. He'll be opposed by the Jays' Ross Stripling, who is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA. Boston has also seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge B2B losses against an opponent. This number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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04-26-22 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
10* WHITE SOX RUNLINE (BOB) Chicago has lost 7 in a row. I say that streak ends in emphatic fashion this evening. Here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as KC has lost 4 in a row. The Royals just got swept by the Mariners over the weekend. They hand the ball to Daniel Lynch, and he's 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA over 2 starts. He went a disastrous 1-2 with a 16.20 ERA over three appearances vs. the White Sox last year. The bullpen has a collective 4.11 ERA and they average just 3.1 RPG. The White Sox have been swept by the Twins and Guardians. I like Dallas Keuchel here though at home in this important game. He's 1-1 with 15.00 ERA so far this year (gave up 8 runs in his last start.) I think the veteran settles down here though. Chicago is also 4-0 in its last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Look for the White Sox to not only win this game, but to do so big a significant margin; the play is Chicago on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-26-22 | Padres v. Reds OVER 8 | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) Two teams in need of a victory collide on Tuesday night and I'm expecting some runs to come across the plate. The Padres are 10-7 overall and out to snap a 2-game road losing streak. The Reds are 3-13. San Diego is off a 10-2 loss to the Angels, while the Reds are off a confidence-building 4-1 win over St. Louis. Joe Musgrove has been sharp for SD in the early going by going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA, but I think regression is finally in store here. Reds' starter Reiver Sanmartin has struggled to open the season though, going 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA. The Reds are just 1-9 the L10 in this series, so they'll be motivated to snap that trend. The Reds allow 5.40 RPG at home and the Padres have averaged 5.33 RPG in their last 3 vs. Cincinnati. Expect these high-scoring trends to continue on Tuesday night; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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04-25-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Dodgers have won 3 of their last 4. The Diamondbacks have lost 2 of their last 3 games. Arizona has yet to win a series yet this year, so they'll be hoping to catch the Dodgers a bit complacent here in the opener. And with Merrill Kelly on the hill for them tonight, I say that the D-Backs have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. The Dodgers are doing great. Their stats confirm that they're among the best in almost every facet, but betting on baseball is not only about betting on strong or weak stats, it's about picking and choosing great "spots" and "situations." This is a great spot bet on the runline for a number of reasons. I think LA is primed for letdown, while clearly Arizona is desperate to get a win streak going. These pitehrs are evenly matched too. I think Kelly can match Walker Buehler inning for inning. Buehler is 1-1 with a 4.02 ERA. He gave up 3 runs and 8 hits over 5 innings in a 3-1 loss to the Braves in his last outing. Kelly is 1-0 with a 0.59 ERA for Arizona, who has given up just 1 run over 3 starts spanning 15 1/3's innings of work. I think this is a great spot and situation overall to pull the trigger on the hungry D-Back on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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04-24-22 | Brewers +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* BREWERS RUNLINE (RED DRAGON) Ultimately, I think we're getting great value with the Brewers on the runline option here. This is a very reasonable mid-sized price to have to lay to have an extra 1.5 runs in your back pocket. Milwaukee hands the ball to Eric Lauer, who is 1-0 with a 3.48 ERA, while the home side sees Aaron Nola toe the slab. If this was four years go, Nola would be a -250 favorite. Now he enters with a 1-2. 5.52 ERA record. Milwaukee has won five of six, including yesterday's contest 5-3 and while an outright victory obviously isn't out of the realm of possibility today either, the play is Milwaukee on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-24-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) I think these starters are great, but the overall situation will lead to this total eclipsing the posted number by the latter frames. The Dodgers see Clayton Kershaw toe the slab and he's 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Sean Manea gets the call for the home side and he's 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA. These teams have been struggling to score, and these starters have opened up the season well. Those facts though have the public convinced that this will once again be a "pitchers duel." This perception though has driven this O/U line a little lower than I think it normally would be, and the value has now definitely swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. A great situtaional value play on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-23-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (BOB) I think Syndergaard is overvalued here. LA is 8-5, while Baltimore is 4-9, but I believe these starting pithers are more evenly matched than what this huge line is suggesting. Spencer Watkins is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Orioles, while Noah Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA for the Angels. Yes, the Orioles have struggled to plate runs this season, but off yesterday's 5-3 victory, I say the visiting side builds momentum off that performance. Let's lay the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pockets; the play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-23-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) LA is coming off a 6-1 win last night, but I expect a classic "slug-fest" on Saturday night. The Dodgers have won ten of their first 13 games. Freddie Freeman is hitting .346. Mookie Betts hit a two run shot last night. Tyler Andreson has been decent for LA, allowing 2 runs off 4 hits with 8 K's so far this season. San Diego won't be lacking for motivation obviously. It's actually seen the total go 7-2 to the over in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 1 run or less. Yu Darvish counters for the home side, he's put up on horrible start, and one great one. Off a gem against the Braves, will this pattern continue? I say yes. This number is now a bit TOO low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-22-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Rays | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The Cardinals are 7-4 and the Reds are 2-11. The Reds only managed 5 hits in a 6-0 loss at the Padres on Wednesday, but Cinncy has seen the total go "over" the number in 8 of its last 10 after a shutout road loss. St. Louis is off a 5-0 road loss at Miami, after taking the first 2 games. The Cards though have seen the total go "over" the number in 6 of their last 8 off a shutout road loss. The Reds hand the ball to rookie Hunter Greene, who is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA (allowed 3 homers in 10 1/3's innings so far), while the Cards go with Steve Matz, who is 1-1 with a 7.26 ERA after getting shelled for 7 runs over his first 8 2/3's innings of work. Considering all of the above information, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-22-22 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The Cardinals are 7-4 and the Reds are 2-11. The Reds only managed 5 hits in a 6-0 loss at the Padres on Wednesday, but Cinncy has seen the total go "over" the number in 8 of its last 10 after a shutout road loss. St. Louis is off a 5-0 road loss at Miami, after taking the first 2 games. The Cards though have seen the total go "over" the number in 6 of their last 8 off a shutout road loss. The Reds hand the ball to rookie Hunter Greene, who is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA (allowed 3 homers in 10 1/3's innings so far), while the Cards go with Steve Matz, who is 1-1 with a 7.26 ERA after getting shelled for 7 runs over his first 8 2/3's innings of work. Considering all of the above information, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-21-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The first 2 games of this series have been low-scoring, but I'm expecting some fireworks here tonight finally. The Cardinals have taken both games, winning 5-1 and 2-0 (that's important for us to note here though, as Miami has seen the total go "over" in 7 of its last 9 in trying to revenge a shutout home loss against an opponent.) Each starting pitcher has gotten out to a decent start to the 2022 season, but regression is in store for both in my estimation. St. Louis goes with Jordan Hicks, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, working a total of 4 innings between 2 games. Pablo Lopez is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA. He most recently blanked the Phillies over 5.1 innings in his most recent outing. I'll not read too much into either of these pitchers' early numbers. The value has now finally swung the other way; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-21-22 | White Sox v. Guardians +134 | 3-6 | Win | 134 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
8* GUARDIANS (SPECIAL) Cleveland took both games of yesterday's double-header and I believe that it's going to post a series sweep here today. The Guardians are undervalued again here by the oddsmakers. Dylan Cease is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA for the White Sox, while Zach Plesac is 0-1 with a 1.64 ERA for the Guardians. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters a "wash." The Guardians have ground to make up and getting them at "plus money" in such an evenly matched game, we'll follow the value here and grab the home side in what I believe will be another convincing victory; the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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04-20-22 | Yankees v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* OVER (AL TOTAL BOB) New York has been trading wins and losses over its last 8 games. It'll have to plate some runs here today if it want to avoid that patten, as the Yanks took the first game of this series by a score of 4-2 yesterday. The Yanks have seen the total go "under" in 5 straight, which is important for us to note here, as they've seen the total go "over" 6 of their last 8 after playing to 5 or more straight "unders" in a row. Detroit's seen the total go "under" in 4 straight. It's lost 2 straight. Luis Severino has been great for New York, he enters with a 1-0, 2.25 ERA. Regression seems imminent at some point though. And Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to find his footing for his new team, he enters with an 0-1, 5.87 ERA and 1.83 WHIP for the Tigers. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-20-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Orioles are hungry to snap a 2-game slide. Baltimore has played better in "day" games this year, going 2-3 with wins over the Yanks and Brewers. They're just 1-5 in night contests. The A's are 3-3 in day games. The A's hand the ball to Daulton Jeffries, who is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA, while the Orioles counter with Jordan Lyles, who is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA. Lyles is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA in 3 road starts vs. Oakland and I think he can easily match Jeffries inning for inning today. And in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the undervalued underdog. In this case though, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-19-22 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
8* BRAVES RUNLINE (8*) I think the defending champs are well worth the price of admission to grab the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. They've lost 2 straight, so they'll be eager to reverse their fortunes here in Chavez Ravine. Max Fried is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA for Atlanta, while Walker Buehler is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Let's not read too much into either pitchers early numbers. All stats, both good and bad, have to be taken with a small grain of salt over the first month. I say Fried settles down here. The Dodgers have won 6 straight, but I think they'll have their hands full today with this determined home side; the play is ATL on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-19-22 | Yankees v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOP) The Yanks Gerrit Cole is vastly overrated. He's 0-0 with a 5.59 ERA. He most recently allowed 3 runs over 5 innings in a no-decision to Toronto. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 2 home runs off him. He's had plenty of success against the Tigers throughout his career, but I say that that was then, and this is now. The Yanks won't be lacking for motivation today after dropping 2 of 3 at Baltimore. They lost 5-0 on Sunday (note that New York though has seen the total go "over" the number in 9 of its last 13 after a shutout loss in its previous outing) and then had yesterday off. "We've got to find a way to get on the board and support our pitching," manager Aaron Boone assessed. The Tigers haven't played since Saturday, but Tyler Alexander is going to have his hands full as well against this determined visiting side. He most recently allowed 3 runs over 5 innings vs. Boston. Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera needs just 5 more hits to reach the 3,000 mark, and while he may not achieve that tonight, he has a big opportunity to do that during this series. When you add it all up, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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04-18-22 | Rays v. Cubs +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
8* CUBS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Rays just dropped 2 of 3 games at the White Sox, and I think they'll have their hands full here today at the Cubs. Previous to that the Rays lost 3 of 4 to Oakland, getting outscored 31-16 in the process. Further regression here on the road as a favorite is imminent in my opinion. Shane McClanahan is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA for the Rays after allowing 3 runs over 4 innings in a loss to Oakland. Kyle Hendricks is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA for the Cubs. This is his 3rd start. He gave up 6 runs over 4 innings in a loss to the Pirates last time out. I say that there's major room for improvement obviously from the Cubs' ace, and there's no better opponent to get back on track than against these struggling Rays. While I feel the outright is a possibility, in the end let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Cubs on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-17-22 | Giants v. Guardians +115 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS (ASSASSIN) I think the Guardians will avoid the 3 game sweep at the hands of the visiting Giants, who have found creative ways to continue to win. They're 6-2 to start the season. The Guardians are now 4-4 after dropping the first 2 games. The Giants hand the ball to Alex Wood, who gave up 2 runs over 4 innings in his first start this year. He'll be opposed by Aaron Civale, who earned a no-decision against the Royals in his 1st outing, allowing 4 hits and 2 runs over 4 innings. Last year he was 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA. With a 4 game series starting at the Mets tomorrow, I think San Fran gets caught looking ahead here; great value on the hungry Guardians! AAA Sports |
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04-16-22 | Yankees v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) I had a play on the Orioles on the runline yesterday, but did not need the extra 1.5 runs, as Baltimore ended up winning 2-1 in the bottom of the 10th inning. I expect another tight game here today as well, one that will once again be decided late or even in extra frames, so because of that, I'm once again back in the saddle and going to recommend a wager on the home side on the runline option again. Jameson Taillon and Tyler Wells are essentially a "wash" as far as the starting pitching is concerned in my opinion. Note though that the Twins are a near-perfect 6-1 in their last 7 off an extra-innings victory in which they held their opponent to 1 or less runs in. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the Orioles on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-16-22 | Twins +1.5 v. Red Sox | 0-4 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
9* TWINS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Twins managed an 8-4 win here yesterday and I think they can keep the good times rolling on Saturday afternoon. Keep your eyes on Luis Arraez for Minnesota, as he is hitting .350 for the Twins over his first 20 at-bats. Sonny Gray gets the nod for the Twins and he'll be looking to get out to a good start for his new team. Last year he was 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA. He made 1 start alrady and gave up 2 runs over 5 innings. The Red Sox have given up 15 runs over their last 2 games. Tanner Houck gave up 3 runs over 3 innings in his debut for the Red Sox this year, so the advantage on the mound today definitely lies with the visiting side in my opinion. Yes, the outright is possible, but let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Minnesota on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-15-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
9* RAYS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Tampa went just 1-2 at home against Oakland, including falling 6-3 yesterday, but I say it'll give the White Sox everything they can handle this evening! Chicago went 2-1 against the Mariners, but it enters off a 5-1 loss yesterday. That snapped a 4-game win skein and I believe further regression is in order here. Tampa hands the ball to Drew Rasmussen, who is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA, while Chicago counters with Dylan Cease, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Rasmussen allowed two runs over four innings in what turned out to be a win for Tampa over Baltimore in his debut, while Cease gave up 1 run over 5 innings against Detroit. Cease is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in one career outing vs. the Rays. Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA in 11 career starts. While I do think the outright is possible, the official is grab the Rays on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-15-22 | A's +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* ATHELTICS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the A's on the runline in their outright win at Tampa and I believe they have a legitimate shot at pulling off another big upset on the road today. The Jays are off a 3-0 loss at New York. Toronto went just 1-2 in the Big Apple, while Oakland went 2-1 in Tampa. Daulton Jeffries is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the A's. He's making his 2nd start of the season and 3rd of his career. He's off a 4-1 win over the Phillies, giving up two hits over 5 scoreless. I think he can easily match Jays' starter Ross Stripling, who enters 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA. He's given up 2 runs over 2 innings of relief and he went a sub-par 5-6 with a 4.69 ERA over 19 starts last season. Great price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the A's on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-15-22 | Yankees v. Orioles +1.5 | 1-2 | Win | 115 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The Yankees are coming off a 3-0 win over the Jays at home yesterday, winning that series 2-1. I say a small letdown is now in order here against the lowly Orioles. Jordan Montgomery is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA for the Yanks after allowing 3 earned runs off four hits over 3 1/3's innings of work. The Orioles go with Jordan Lyles, who is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA after allowing 5 runs over 5 innings in a 5-3 loss to Tampa on Saturday. Lyles signed a 1-year contract worth 7 million, and I say he bounces back at home. In a contest that I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, let's grab the home side on the runline option; the play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-14-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Rockies | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
8* CUBS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I think the Cubbies can keep this one close. The Rockies swept the Rangers in two games in Texas and then had a day off. They send Kyle Freeland to the hill and he's 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA. The Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Freeland struggled in his first start, allowing 5 runs off 5 hits over 3 innings in a loss to the Dodgers. Steele makes his second start of the season. Last year as a rookie he went 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA over 20 games (9 starts.) He blanked the hard-hitting Brewers over 5 innings and I say he carries that momentum over here. The outright is possible, but let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The play is the CUBS on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-14-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (AL RL BOB) Dane Dunning gets the call for the Rangers here. He's 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA, giving up five hits and three runs over five innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Jays on the road in his opener. I think he'll bounce-back in friendly confines though. Look for a new pitch from Dunning today: "The slider that I normally throw is a bit more vertical," he said. "This new slider I throw is probably more like a sideways curveball. ...The numbers are actually really good on it, so it's something I wanted to incorporate into my repertoire. It's something different that hitters haven't seen." He'll go up against Shohei Ohtani, who is 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He looked decent as well in his first start, allowing one run off four hits over 4 innings in a loss to Houston. This one is going to come down to the latter frames, and because of that, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline option today! AAA Sports |
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04-14-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rays | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
9* A'S RUNLINE (DESTROYER) The A's won 4-2 last night and I expect another competitive effort from the visiting side today as well. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena went a combined 0 for 9 yesterday for the Rays and I think they'll struggle again here against Cole Irvin, who enters hungry after starting 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA. He gave up 4 runs off 7 hits over 5 1/3's frames in a loss to the Phillies. Irvin has a big opportunity bounce back here throwing opposite Josh Flemming, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings in relief against Baltimore on Saturday. Let's not read too much into either pitchers first start. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the A's on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-13-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Tampa managed the 9-8 win yesterday, but I think that the A's bounce back here. Yes, I do think that the outright win is possible, but in the end let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Frankie Montas got rocked in his debut for Oakland, allowing five runs off six hits over five innings. Last year he was 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA on the road. I say he definitely bounces back today. The Rays go with Shane McClanahan, who gave up no runs over 4 innings in a 2-1 win over Baltimore in his opener. The A's have smashed lefties this year early, averaging .346 collectively thus far. Look for that trend to continue here; the play is Oakland on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-13-22 | Red Sox v. Tigers +111 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS (DESTRUCTION) Detroit took the first game by a score of 3-1, while Boston bounced back with the 5-3 victory yesterday. Boston has a day off after this before four straight at home and I believe it'll get caught looking ahead. Eduardo Rodriguez gets to face his former team for his new team and I expect him to make the most of "home field." He just signed a $77 million dollar deal with Detroit, so this is a big game for him: "It's something that no matter what the results are, you just want to have a good game, pitch good and win the game," he said. "All in all, I'm going to enjoy having the opportunity to face my old teammates." Last year he was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA. He gave up 3 runs on 4 hits over 4 innings in a no-decision to the White Sox in Detroit's opener. Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 5.40), gave up three runs off five hits over five innings to the Yanks in his season debut. I like Rodriguez to clutch up here and deliver a gem. As Bob Barker used to say, "The Price Is Right!", as well; the play is the Tigers! AAA Sports |
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04-12-22 | Astros v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (BOB) The Astros go with right-hander Luis Garcia, who finished 11-8 with a 3.48 ERA last season. He was the runner-up for American League Rookie of the Year. The Diamondbacks go with Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA after throwing 3 innings on Opening Night. The Astros come to town after going 3-1 at the Angels. It was the opposite for Arizona though, which dropped 3 of 4 games at home against the Padres. That included a 10-5 loss here Sunday in which the team made 3 unearned errors: "Three unearned runs to me is unacceptable," Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said afterward. "That game should have been a lot closer than it was. We've got to get better. We've got a day off (Monday). We can turn the page. That's all we can do. We can learn from it, move on, keep pressing and teaching. Do what we can to make something good happen on Tuesday." I like the veteran a home here and I believe the hungrier home side will, at the very least, keep this one competitive late; grab the 1.5 runs with the Diamondbacks on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-12-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -114 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
8* YANKEES (SPECIAL) Off a 3-0 loss in yesterday's series opener, I like the Yanks to respond and bounce back on Tuesday. Yusei Kikuchi was 7-9 with a 4.41 ERA in 2021 with the Mariners, while Nestor Cortes Jr. was 2-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2021. Kikuchi is just 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in 4 career starts against the Yanks, while Cortes Jr. is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA in 7 career outings vs. the Jays. Let's call these starters a "wash." New York though is 6-1 in its last 7 vs. lefties, while Toronto is interestingly 1-4 in its last 5 road games when the total is set between 9 and 10.5. New York plays with immediate revenge after last night's shutout loss and I believe it's well worth the price of admission this evening; the play is the Yankees! AAA Sports |
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04-11-22 | Marlins v. Angels -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 141 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
8* ANGELS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I don't only like the Angels to win this game, I like them to win by a significant margin. Because of that, let's lay the 1.5 runs for the decent "plus money return." Michael Lorenzen will make his debut for his new team tonight: "I'm meant to be here," Lorenzen said. "This is my home. And when you're gone for seven years, you really realize 'I miss my home.' You go a little extreme and I guess I've gone a little extreme, but I love being here." He's 6-10 with a 4.95 ERA overall in 26 career starts, but a much sharper 1-2 with a 2.94 ERA in 14 career games (three starts) vs. the Fish. The visitors counter with Eliser Hernandez, who was 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA over 11 starts last season. It's already been noted that Hernandez will be held to just 75 pitches or 5 innings tonight as well. Look for the Angels to take advantage! The play is LA on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-11-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (GOW) Tampa swept Baltimore, but I think it'll have its hands full today against the Atheltics, who avoided a three-game sweep at Philadelphia with a 4-1 victory yesterday afternoon. Paul Blackburn will take the mound to start for the visitors. He owns a pedestrian 5.74 lifetime ERA. Tampa counters with Luis Patino, who owns a slightly better 4.47 lifetime ERA. Oakland proved yesterday that it still has talent in its lineup, and I say the A's hang around late and make this one interesting. While I do believe the outright victory is a possibility, let's lay the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the A's on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-11-22 | Brewers v. Orioles +1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
9* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) After starting 0-3, the Orioles are desperate to break into the win column. Here's a great opponent to possibly do that against, as the Brewers struggled in their opening series loss to the Cubs. Adrian Houser gets the call for the Brewers, and he was 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA last year, while the hungry Orioles turn to Bruce Zimmerman, who was 4-5 with a 5.04 ERA. Milwaukee though is a putrid 1-11 in its last 12 on the road. The Brewers bullpen has to be called into question as well, as Milwaukee's team ERA is 7.88, while Baltimore's is 3.94. This one will be tight, so I'm laying the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the Orioles on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-10-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The first game of this series flew "over" the number, the second game went "under." I expect tonight's finale to once again be a higher-scoring one. Tanner Houck toes the slab for the visitors; He was 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA over 31 innings pitched on the road last year. The home side counters with Jordan Montgomery, who was 6-7 with a 3.83 ERA last year. These two division rivals won't take it easy at the plate in this nationally televised contest. Neither team's bullpen can be trusted and I don't expect either starter to throw very deep. This all adds up to a higher-scoring "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-10-22 | A's +1.5 v. Phillies | 4-1 | Win | 102 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
8* A'S RUNLINE (SPECIAL) In what I believe will be a very competitive contest, I'm going to lay the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. The A's always seem to start slow and then find ways to win, and that could be the case again this season after 2 straight losses to open the season in Philly. The Phillies go with Zach Eflin, who was nothing special last year, finishing 4-7 with a 4.17 ERA. The visitors go with Daulton Jeffries, who makes his third major league start here. He's 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA so far. I say these starters are equal. I also say the A's get out to an early start here as well finally. The outright is possible, but the official call is to play the A's on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-09-22 | A's v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Philadelphia pulled away for the high-scoring 9-5 win yesterday, but I expect much more of a classic pitchers duel on Saturday afternoon. Cole Irvin finished 10-15 with a 4.24 ERA last year for the A's, while Kyle Gibson was 10-9 with a 3.71 ERA and who was traded to the Phillies last summer. He's 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA lifetime against the A's. Gibson's familiarity of this club is another strong situational factor we can use here as well. Expect these two capable starters to throw deep, and look for this total to fall under! AAA Sports |
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04-09-22 | Mariners v. Twins -132 | 4-3 | Loss | -132 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
9* TWINS (SPECIAL) No need to overthink this one. The Mariners managed a victory in yesterday's Season Opener, but I expect the home side to answer here. Logan Gilbert was 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA for the M's last year, while Sonny Gray was 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA for the Reds (now on the Twins.) Gray though is a sharp 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 career starts against Seattle. Expect Gray to outduel his counterpart and lay this price with confidence; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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04-08-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (GOM) The Blue Jays have made a lot of moves in the offseason which have many believe that they're now the team to beat in the American League. That may turn out to be the case, but on Opening Day, almost anythign can happen (just ask the Braves!) I see this one being decided late or even in extra innings, so I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Sonny Gray was 8-12 with a 4.59 ERA in 29 starts for the Rockies last year and in 2 career outings vs. the Jays he's 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA. Jose Berriors was 12-9 with a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts betwen Toronto and Minnesota last year. He's 2-1 with a pedestrian 5.47 ERA in 5 career starts vs. the Jays; the play is Texas on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-08-22 | Mariners +102 v. Twins | 2-1 | Win | 102 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
9* MARINERS (ASSASSIN) Here's an interesting matchup, as I give a big nod to the Mariners on the mound, but I give the Twins the advantage at the plate. It's a classic matchup, but in this case, I believe the talent discrepancy on the mound will prove to be the difference-maker for the visiting Seattle Mariners. Seattle finished second in the AL West with a 90-72 record last year. The Twins were in last place in the AL Central with a 73-89 record. Joe Ryan gets the nod for Minnesota, and he went 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA in five starts and 30 K's for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics. It's the first rookie starter to start on Opening Day for the Twins since 1969. Ray went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA in 32 starts in 2021 and he's the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Great value on the superior pitchers; the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
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04-08-22 | Red Sox +150 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
9* RED SOX (DESTRUCTION) My analysis will be pretty succinct over the the first week of the season. The bottom line with this one is that I believe that Nathan Eovaldi and the hungry Red Sox have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Yes, the Yankees have something to prove this year, and Gerritt Cole is a tough opponent, but he was a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA in four starts against Boston last year. Eovaldi was 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA in six starts against New York last year. Plenty of sluggers on each side, but the value swings to this undervalued underdog on Opening Day in my opinion; the pay is Boston! AAA Sports |
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04-07-22 | Astros +112 v. Angels | Top | 3-1 | Win | 112 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
10* ASTROS (GOW) I think the deep and talented Astros will pull off the slight Opening Day upset. Shohei Ohtani went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA In 23 starts last year for the Angels, while Framber Valdez was 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA in 22 starts for the Astros. The difference for me though is that Valdez was 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 starts against the Astros last season, while Ohtani went 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in 2 starts vs. Houston. Expect Valdez to continue his dominance over the Angels! AAA Sports |
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04-07-22 | Reds +180 v. Braves | 6-3 | Win | 180 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
8* REDS (SPECIAL) I've always felt that there's tremendous value on Opening day. Especially when betting underdogs on Openind day! I've often found that the bookmakers lines are soft on opening day, and that's the case here with Cincinnait, which I believe has much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Tyler Mahle finished 13-6 with a sharp 3.75 ERA in 33 starts last year. The Reds let Nick Castellanos go, while the defending champs failed to sign Freddie Freeman. The Braves go with Max Fried, who was 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA in 28 starts last year. Expect the hungrier visiting side to pull off the upset on Opening day; the play is the Reds! AAA Sports |
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER With the World Series set to return to Houston, the designated hitter is once again in play for both teams. That’s going to lead most bettors to believe that we’re possibly in store for a high-scoring affair in Game 6. But really, Game 5 has been the only “high-scoring” game of the World Series and that was due in large part to a Braves’ grand slam that was hit in the first inning. That won’t happen again. Take that one swing away and Atlanta has scored just eight runs total in the rest of the last four games. Tonight they must face Luis Garcia, who has a 2.71 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home and more importantly a 12-3 Under record here. Only twice in the past eight games has Astros pitching allowed more than three runs. Opponents are barely batting .200 during that eight-game run. The Braves have Max Fried on the mound for Game 6. While Fried has turned in two straight subpar outings, the Under is 11-5 in his 16 road starts this year. Fried has allowed three runs or fewer in 23 of his last 29 starts. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston’s back is against the wall now as they trail three games to one. They must now beat Atlanta three straight times. The good news is that if they win tonight, not only do they stay alive, but the remaining games would be at home. The Astros have scored just two runs in two games in Atlanta. But we think the lineup wakes up from its slumber in Game 5. We know that the Braves have won 11 straight home games. But the Astros have to start hitting better with runners in scoring position (they are 0 for their last 17 in that situation). Atlanta’s pitching has done a great job so far in the series. But the relievers have had a heavy workload that may catch up with them in the end. No team in MLB history has gone 8-0 at home in the postseason. Matzek, Jackson and Smith have all thrown in each of the last two games. As of this writing, the Braves still haven’t announced a starter. No matter who it ends up being, we look for Houston to at least double its scoring output from the last two games. We also trust Framber Valdez to get the job done. He’s been better on the road all year and won the close-out game vs. Boston in the ALCS, giving up one run and three hits in eight innings. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-30-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER While we aren’t exactly sure who will be “starting” this game for the Braves, who are now up two games to one in the 2021 World Series, we are pretty positive that the Astros are going to end up with more hits than they had last night. Led by a masterful outing from Ian Anderson, Atlanta kept Houston hitless for seven innings last night. All the Astros ended up with were two hits for the game as they lost 2-0. We liked it as the Braves were a winner for us and in breaking the game down we did issue a warning to Astros’ fans that the loss of the designated hitter could prove significant in Atlanta. But we trust Houston’s lineup will have at least a little of a bounce back tonight in Game 4 as Atlanta is going with a “bullpen game.” Not facing Anderson is a blessing for the road team, that’s for sure. The Astros still are averaging 5.8 runs/game for the entire postseason. The Braves are 6-0 at home in the playoffs and they stranded nine runners last night. So there’s a pretty clear cut case that they should have put more runs on the board in Game 3. They went 1 for 6 when they had runners in scoring position. Going up against Zack Greinke should help out the Atlanta offense. In Greinke’s only start during these playoffs, he lasted only 1.3 innings and gave up two runs. He’s not the same pitcher he once was and the Over is 26-10 in the Braves last 36 interleague home games vs. right-handed starters. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -109 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Atlanta may have been the underdog coming into the World Series, but they quickly wrested away home field advantage by winning Game 1 in Houston. Game 2 was a situation where a play on the Astros seemed obvious, so that’s what we did and we won. But now we like the Braves at home in Game 3. Ian Anderson has been a much better pitcher than Luis Garcia in the playoffs. Anderson’s three starts have resulted in only three runs being allowed. Garcia has given up 10 runs in his three turns in the postseason and that’s despite him pitching only 9.3 innings. Anderson has thrown 12 innings. The Braves have yet to lose two straight in the postseason. We don’t think it will happen now. Off their first three playoff losses, they’ve outscored teams 16-4. Mid-September is the last time the Braves lost consecutive games. They’ve won 66% of the time since August 2nd. The Astros have lost 11 of the last 15 times they’ve played in a National League stadium, which of course means no designated hitter. Such is the case here. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-27-21 | Braves v. Astros -110 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Atlanta jumped all over Houston starter Framber Valdez in Game 1, scoring five times off him in the first three innings. It was pretty much over from there. But like a lot of people, we can’t see the Braves winning two straight on the road to open the World Series. It was a costly win for the Braves last night as Charlie Morton was lost to a season-ending injury. Max Fried will get the baseball in Game 2 and he looked very shaky in his last NLCS start, giving up five runs to the Dodgers in 4.6 innings. Houston did lose back to back games in the ALCS, but other than that they had just one losing streak going back to Labor Day Weekend. Their record at home this year is 55-32. The most recent time that the Astros lost two straight home games was August 22nd and 23rd and those losses came to two different teams. The last time the Astros lost two straight home games to the same opponent was August 5th and 6th to Minnesota. That was nearly three months ago. Game 2 starter Urquidy has a 0.88 WHIP in 10 starts at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros -129 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON We think the Braves were pretty lucky to have what was - in our view - an undeserved “home field advantage” in the NLCS. They had 18 fewer regular season wins compared to the Dodgers. But because Atlanta won a weak NL East and LA was in the same division as San Francisco (and had to settle for a Wild Card), the rules said the Braves got the home field edge. They took full advantage by going 3-0 in Truist Park in the NLCS and won the series in six games. We bring this up because the Braves won’t have home field advantage in the World Series against the Astros. They head to Houston for Games 1 and 2 and this will present a challenge for the pitching staff as the Astros are a much stronger lineup than what the Braves are used to facing. There’s no pitcher coming up to bat in these next two games. The Astros have scored 6.7 runs/game in the playoffs. Atlanta gets to use the DH too, but we don’t think they can match the American League team’s firepower. Framber Valdez went eight innings in Game 5 of the ALCS and gave up one run on three hits. The Braves’ Charlie Morton is winless in three postseason starts with a 3.77 ERA. Almost every edge goes to Houston in this series. We’ll take them in Game 1. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-22-21 | Red Sox -101 v. Astros | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON All of a sudden, the Red Sox have stopped hitting and they now find themselves facing elimination heading into Game 6 at Houston. The last two games, Boston has managed only eight hits and three runs, a far cry from the first two games of this ALCS when they had 32 hits and 25 runs. In fact, there was a six-game stretch in these playoffs where the Red Sox scored 51 times and collected 79 hits! We think they get back to that tonight with their season on the line. They’ll be facing Luis Garcia again. Garcia could only record three outs when he started Game 2 and served up one of the three Red Sox grand slams in this series. Boston will give the baseball to Nathan Eovaldi. He has a 10-1 team start record since August 23rd and has posted a 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts. Eovaldi’s recent numbers are a far cry from those of Garcia, who has an 0-3 TSR, 13.49 ERA and 2.54 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. Yes, we remember that Eovaldi was one of the culprits in letting Game 4 get away (which really turned this series). But that was a unique relief situation and we expect him to resume his string of excellent starts. Over the last month-plus, the Red Sox have only one losing streak of more than two games. That won’t happen here. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The late innings have been unkind to under bettors the last two nights in MLB. We know as we had the Under two nights ago in Houston-Boston, a game that was 2-2 heading into the ninth. The Astros erupted for seven runs in the final frame though. Them putting two on the board in the ninth last night also sent that ALCS game Over. It’s been a similar deal here in the NLCS with a four-run eighth inning rally by the Dodgers sending Tuesday’s game Over and then a four-run ninth by the Braves sending last night’s game Over. We are on the Under in Game 5. Excluding the eighth inning eruption in Game 3, the Dodgers have not done much at the plate in this series. They were held to four hits in Game 4. Now it’s Max Fried pitching for Atlanta. Fried has been the best starter in baseball over the second half of the season. In his last seven starts, Fried has a 1.34 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, leading the Braves to a 7-0 record. He’s given up only four runs in his last five starts. The Dodgers turn to their bullpen to try and keep their season alive. We’ll count on them to limit the Braves’ offense as visiting teams have scored only 3.3 runs/game at Dodger Stadium in 2021 and hit just .209. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-20-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -208 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -208 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA DODGERS Momentum has definitely shifted in the NLCS as the Dodgers were five outs away from being in an 0-3 hole to the Braves. Instead, thanks mainly to Cody Bellinger, they came back last night and won Game 3 by a score of 6-5. They’ve had a two-run lead in every game in this series and it’s difficult for us not to view them as the superior ballclub. Atlanta, who also took the first two games of last year’s NLCS against the Dodgers, now has to be a bit “shell-shocked” and feeling an all-too familiar sense of “deja vu.” We love the Dodgers with Julio Urias starting in Game 4. Urias was baseball’s only 20-game winner in the regular season. He comes into tonight with a 21-3 overall record. The Dodgers are 27-6 in all of his starts this season and have won the last 12! While Urias, when used as a reliever in Game 2, could not protect a lead in Game 2, he’ll be a lot better tonight in his normal role of starter. Atlanta is going with a “bullpen game” tonight, meaning we don’t officially know who is going to start. Nor do we care. The Dodgers are the better team and seized momentum last night. The Braves are 0-6 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 since 2019, four of those losses coming this season. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We are 2-0 in the ALCS. Both wins, which came in Games 1 and 3, were with the Over. It sure didn’t take long for the Over to hit last night. For the third time in two games, the Red Sox hit a grand slam. They were up 6-0 after two innings and 9-0 after three. It was when the Astros scored three runs in the top of the fourth that the Over officially became a winner. But we are “switching sides” tonight in Game 4 as it’s time this ALCS saw an Under. The Over is 3-0 in the series and 5-0 the last five times the teams have met. Not shocking as these were two of the highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. They have both gone Over in six straight playoff games. But the O/U line is higher (up to 10.0) for Game 4 and Zack Greinke is the key for the Astros. Greinke has yet to start a playoff game in 2021. He had a mediocre regular season. But we think he’ll “step up” like he did when he threw a scoreless inning of relief against the White Sox in the ALDS. But the problem for Houston is that they had only five hits in last night’s loss. Assuming the Red Sox stop hitting grand slams, a wise assumption based on the fact they are already the first team EVER to hit three in the same series, their scoring is set to go down. Nick Pivetta will start for Boston. He threw four scoreless innings of relief in his last appearance and held the Astros to just two runs in six innings when he faced them in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Let’s not overcomplicate or overthink things here. The two teams in this year’s American League Championship Series do not struggle to score runs. Houston leads all of MLB with a 5.4 runs/game scoring average. There is no drop off in scoring when they hit the road. They have scored five or more runs in nine straight games, going back to the final series of the regular season. The last seven games, which includes the regular season finale, has seen them average 6.9 runs/games while batting .293. The Astros will need to score plenty of runs to win here in Boston because the Red Sox average 5.8 runs/game at Fenway Park. That led the league in scoring at home. Going back to the Wild Card Game, Boston has averaged 6.4 runs/game and hit .318. There are reasons to be concerned about both starters in Game 3 on Monday. For Houston, Jose Urquidy has not pitched since the regular season finale. Eduardo Rodriguez of Boston has a 5.78 ERA at Fenway this year. Even worse is his 7.02 ERA in 10 career postseason starts and his 11.57 ERA in two regular season starts vs. the Astros. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-17-21 | Dodgers -171 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Braves had “their man” (Max Fried) on the hill for Game 1. It resulted in a 3-2 win as the home team walked off in the bottom of the ninth, thanks to an Austin Riley base hit. But now it’s the Dodgers’ turn to go with their best pitcher and that obviously means Max Scherzer. The only Scherzer start that Los Angeles has lost was Game 3 of the NLDS. He still went seven innings, had 10 strikeouts and gave up only one run on three hits. It was a 1-0 loss. But Scherzer got his revenge on the Giants when he retired the side, with two strikeouts, in the bottom of the ninth of Game 5. Having now made 13 starts for the Dodgers, Scherzer has allowed 0 or 1 run in 10 of them. After a loss is when you really want to back LA. They are 16-2 after their last 18 losses. Going all the way back to the end of July, there have been only two times where the Dodgers lost two in a row. One was late July, the other was early September. We haven’t mentioned the fact Atlanta is starting Ian Anderson in Game 2 because it’s pretty inconsequential to this play. You’ve got to back the Dodgers tonight. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Going back to their series of the regular season (vs. Oakland), the Astros have averaged 7.7 runs over their last seven games, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. Not to be outdone, the Red Sox scored 26 runs in their three wins over the Rays in the ALDS. They’ve averaged 6.3 runs in their last seven games. These were two of the five highest scoring teams in the regular season with Houston being #1. So this year’s ALCS figures to turn into a “slugfest” in short order. For Game 1, we’ve got two starting pitchers that have been struggling. Boston’s Chris Sale has a 10.39 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in his last three starts. Sale pitched one inning in the ALDS and allowed five runs. He has a 7.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP on the road this year. Houston’s Framber Valdez has a 5.06 ERA in his past three starts after giving up four runs in each of the last two. The Over has hit in five of Valdez’s last six starts. All signs point to plenty of runs being scored tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers +100 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA The two starting pitchers for Game 5 have proven themselves to be very difficult to beat. The Giants’ Logan Webb has not lost a game since May 11th. The team is 19-2 his past 21 starts. The Dodgers’ Julio Urias is 12-0 since June 21st with the team’s record being 16-2 in his past 18 starts. Both pitched well in their previous start in this LDS. So something will have to give. Might it be the bullpens that decide this game? The Dodgers’ pen seems to be fresher at this point of the series. Manager Dave Roberts has only had to make the call to the bullpen seven times in the last two games. The Giants have called upon 10 different relievers over the same time. While Los Angeles has been shutout twice in the series, they’ve still scored seven more runs than San Francisco over the course of the four games. The Giants have only scored nine runs the entire series and only five in the last three games. At the end of the day, we just think that the Dodgers are the better of the two teams. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-12-21 | Astros v. White Sox -110 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS The White Sox were able to stave off elimination with a 12-6 win on Monday. Then their season was extended another day when Mother Nature came calling on Tuesday. The rainout pushed Game 4 back to today and we think the situation favors the home team. Certainly, there’s no denying that the White Sox prefer to be at home. They are 54-28 at Guaranteed Rate Field as opposed to 40-43 on the road. It will be Carlos Rodon starting today’s game for the home team. Rodon was probably Chicago’s best starter in the regular season. He has battled injuries, including a sore arm down the stretch. But he threw five shutout innings in his last regular season start and brings a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP into the postseason. Houston is going with Lance McCullers Jr, who won Game 1. This is a change from Jose Urquidy, who was set to go yesterday before the rain said no. With the White Sox accusing the Astros of stealing signs, there’s some real “bad blood” between the two teams. But we think it boils down to the White Sox homefield advantage and being faced with elimination. The Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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10-11-21 | Brewers +100 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Atlanta was able to even this series up with a 3-0 win in Game 2. We did not have a play on that game. We did cash Milwaukee in Game 1 though. Believe it or not, we are even more apt to take the Brewers now that the series has moved to Atlanta. The Brewers were 50-31 on the road in the regular season. That’s a better record than they have at home. Not only does the team score more when it’s on the road, but they also give up far less runs. No team allowed fewer runs on the road than Milwaukee did during the regular season. They gave up just 3.4 per game while scoring 4.8 themselves. Freddy Peralta will be the starter for Game 3. He comes in with a 18-9 TSR, 2.85 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Peralta faced the Braves one time this year and he kept them scoreless for six innings. He allowed only two hits in the outing. The Braves are countering with Ian Anderson, who is 4-0 in his last six starts. But there were two different starts where Anderson allowed four runs and he’s allowed seven home runs in the last five starts. The Braves are only 42-38 at home. Throw in the fact the Brewers are 41-25 in day games and we really like the road team in this one. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |