Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-26-23 | UMass v. New Mexico State -7.5 | Top | 41-30 | Loss | -110 | 534 h 41 m | Show |
Here we go with another College Football season and I'll look to pick up right where I left off from last season. Jerry Kill and New Mexico State made their second bowl game since 2000 last year. Kill has a knack of turning programs around, and I see more progression this season. Here's a great opponent to hammer on early and work out some stuff. Last year Diego Pavia was a true dual threat QB, while the defense was the biggest surprise, finishing 30th overall in the country. New Mexico State is only ranked 122nd, and UMass is significantly lower than that. Look for the Aggies to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with New Mexico State. |
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08-26-23 | Hamilton v. BC -10 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 6 m | Show |
The Big Cats are playing Saturday in Vancouver but only one of them really has any claws. The Lions almost made a comeback in week 10 vs. the Riders while the Ti-Cats offered up the first win of the season for the lowly Elks. The Lions are 2-0 after a straight up loss this season and have outscored their opponents 72-28 in those two games. Both of those games were in Vancouver. In their last 2 games the Ti-Cats have averaged 210 yds passing/game while the Lions have averaged 388 yds passing/game. 3rd string QB Powell threw a TD pass his first game in relief back on July 13th, but since then he has started 3 games and thrown 3 INTs and no more TD passes. There are also some stark contrasts in team stats between the two squads. The Lions are 3rd in the CFL in avg points/game while the Ti-Cats are 9th in avg points against/game. The Lions are 2nd in net offence/game while the Ti-Cats are 8th in opposition net offence/game. The Lions are 1st in avg passing yds/game while the Ti-Cats are 7th in opposition passing yds/game. I could go on how high the Lions’ defence is in key stats and how low the Ti-Cats’ offence is in the related category, but I won’t. You get it. This is a mismatch and you should clearly lay the points and go with the Lions. |
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08-23-23 | Mets v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 105 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This should be a pitchers’ duel for the first six innings or so between these two veteran hurlers. Probable starter for the Mets, southpaw Quintana has been very effective since his return from IR and rehab in late July. His ERA and WHIP were superlative in August, but he still didn’t get his first win until last week. He has a tough challenge on tap against the Braves who lead the majors in avg. and OPS against LHPs this season. Even if he survives, his available bullpen won’t be able to hold the fort against a Braves batting order that is 2nd in avg. and 3rd in OPS over the last 15 days. Over their last 10 against the Mets the Braves are 7-3 and have an average margin of victory of 5.6 runs in each of those wins. To add to the Mets’ challenge, they will be facing veteran Morton who has a 2.93 ERA in August and has a solid bullpen available Wednesday, as well as the aforementioned formidable run support. Lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one. |
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08-23-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Probable starter Kirby has pitched some gems lately for the red-hot Mariners including 9 innings of shutout ball (although he did not get a decision against the Orioles in that one) and two other games where he only allowed 1 run. All this has been over his last 5 outings. Over his last 3, his ERA is 2.05 and his WHIP is 0.64. Probable starter Kopech has averaged 4.2 innings pitched and has an ERA of 8.53 over his last 5 starts and in his last 3 starts his WHIP is 1.98 (and his ERA is 9.88). Kopech’s team is cold too. They have the 14th best avg. and the 25th best OPS in the majors over the last 15 days. In the other dugout the Mariners have the 3rd best avg. and the 2nd best OPS over the last 15 days. Not surprisingly the Mariners are 15-4 in August while the White Sox are 6-12. Over the last 7 games the Mariners avg. 3.8 runs more / 9 innings than the Mariners and allow 4.3 less/ 9 innings than the Mariners. This will make you very comfortable to lay the runs and go with the Mariners. |
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08-22-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Guardians | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
The Dodgers said goodbye to probable starter for the Guardians, Syndergaard, in late July. He has had mixed results for his new team, the Guardians, that make for some weak numbers. In his last 3 starts he has a 6.19 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP that have led to a 1-2 record. His time in LA wasn’t much better. Rising star. 24-year-old Miller, is the probable starter for the Dodgers. Lately he has been on fire with a 1.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts. On the season he has a deserved 7-2 record. The available pitchers from the bullpen have very similar stats for both teams but at the plate there is a big gap between the squads. In the last 15 days the Dodgers are in the top 3rd of the majors for avg. and OPS while the Guardians are in the bottom 4th for both over the same time period. For the important OPS stat the Dodgers are 3rd in the majors vs. RHP over the season. Lastly the Dodgers have a 17-2 record in August and a 15-5 record vs. teams with a losing record after the all-star break. The Guardians are 6-12 for August and have a 7-14 record vs. teams with a winning record after the all-star break. Lay the points and go with Miller and the Dodgers. |
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08-21-23 | Arsenal -1 v. Crystal Palace | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
Arsenal and Palace both came out of game week 1 with all 3 points. Palace only managed 1 goal against a very weak Sheffield side. They will be hard pressed to produce anything against a superior defence like Arsenal has. Arsenal had 10 clean sheets away last season and 39 points away which was the best in the EPL. Arsenal got up by 2 in the first half against Nottingham Forest and then coasted which made things a bit nervy at the end. Forest is superior to Sheffield and Arsenal is superior to Palace by extension. With the addition of Rice in midfield and the maturation of a world class talent like Saka, Palace will have their hands full. Arsenal also feasted on all the London Derbys last season as they won 10 of 12 including both wins against Palace. They have won 3 of their last 5 against Palace including 2 wins at Palace. Palace has trouble scoring which is shown by the fact they only scored 40 times last season which is less than two of the relegation sisters scored(Leeds and Leicester). And they did that with Zaha (by far their leading scorer) who has since moved on. Lay the goal and go with Arsenal on this one. |
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08-20-23 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
The Phillies hammered the Nationals last night, beating up on Washington's bullpen. The Phillies are leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, and face a right-hander who has an ERA of 7.44 in his last seven starts. Short starts and lots of earned runs is the line on Williams these days. He'll square off with the Phillies ace Wheeler, who has been very sound lately. He beat the Nats in a 6 inning 3 run start just 10 days ago. Wheeler has been more effective on the road this season. |
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08-20-23 | Everton v. Aston Villa -0.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Analysis These two teams lost in the first game week. Villa was dismantled by Newcastle and Fulham won with a clean sheet against Everton. The similarities end there as Villa has dominated Everton over the last while and ended last season strongly. In their last 7 at home Villa is 7-0 and has only conceded 2 goals. Everton has trouble scoring as last season they only managed 34 goals in 38 games. Villa is 6-0-2 in their last 8 vs. Everton and 4-0 in their last 4 home matches vs. Everton. In their last 6 head to head Villa has outscored Everton 12-2. Both managers have problems with availability of starters but this should not reduce Villa’s superiority. Pick Villa on this one. |
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08-18-23 | Winnipeg -4 v. Calgary | Top | 19-18 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The Stamps are running out of runway here to salvage their season. They need to get back on track but are in the middle of a string of games against the Lions, Argos and Bombers; the elite of the CFL. It isn’t going to happen this week. QB Maier is just too inconsistent. His last loss to the Bombers he only got 122 yards passing. In 4 of his last 9 games he has less than 170 yards passing. That doesn’t come close to cutting it in the pass happy CFL. He leads the CFL in INTs thrown and has the lowest passer efficiency rating among qualified QBs at 78.7. This is bad news against a Bombers’ “D” that has the 2nd best opponents’ pass efficiency rating (77.9) and opponents’ avg yards/pass (7.4). On the other side of the ball the Bombers lead the CFL in passing yards and are 2nd in rushing yards. Calgary’s “D” is in the bottom half of the CFL in both for opponents rushing and passing categories. The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 after an ATS loss while the Stamps are 1-5 in their last 6 ATS vs. the West. The spread is less because Brown will start in place of Collaros but Brown has too many weapons at his disposal. Lay the points and take the Bombers. |
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08-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Hamilton -5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
I’m not going to make the mistake I made after the Bombers’ last bye week and their subsequent annihilation of the Lions, nor the scare the Elks, off their bye week, threw into the Bombers. The Ti-Cats are coming off a bye week and with a new OC in successful CFL coach Milanovich having two weeks to prepare, the Elks will be in trouble. It is also instructive to note that the Ti-Cats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when coming off a bye week and the Elks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Ti-Cats. It won’t help that the Elks will be without their leader on defence, DB Purifoy, as well as starting DE Brown. Both teams are at or near the bottom of the league in most important offensive and defensive stats so we aren’t expecting a Picasso here but should see two rejuvenated offenses as the Elks will go into their second game with their new OC, Jackson, as well. Both teams will not start the QB they started the season with. Lay the points and go with the Ti-Cats coming off their bye week. |
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08-16-23 | Guardians v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 120 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
Probable pitcher Abbott for the Reds seems to be a charm for his team as they have a 10-3 record when he starts. Probable starter Syndergaard for the Guardians seems to have the opposite effect on his team (which was the Dodgers before the trade deadline) as his team’s record is 5-10 when he starts. Syndergaard was also shelled the last game he pitched against the Reds (for the Dodgers) as he gave up 6 ERs over 3 innings. Add to this the fact that the Guardians are 29th in avg. and 30th (dead last) in the majors against LHP. The Reds are in the top half of the majors vs RHP. And don’t forget, the Guardians are 6-13 against teams with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. The Reds are 8-5 against teams with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Lay the points and take the high value bet for the Reds in this one. |
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08-15-23 | Yankees v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
Both probable starters for the Yankees and Braves have struggled as of late. Severino for the Yankees has been in a funk beyond compare though and it makes Elder’s recent dip look palatable. A 13.05 ERA for August backs onto an 11.22 ERA for July and his WHIP over his last 3 starts is north of 2.00. Elder has had a tough August too but his ERA over his last 3 starts is almost half the size of Severino’s. Add to this the majors’ leading avg. and OPS over the last 15 days compiled by the Braves and their mastery of RHP all season where again they lead the majors in avg. and OPS and you have the makings of an ugly outing for Severino and the Yankees. The Yankees are 29th in avg. and 24th in OPS vs. RHP this year (although they have been middle of the pack overall over the last 15 days). In terms of runs for/9 innings the Braves have averaged almost double what the Yankees have. It’s a pretty confident play to lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one. |
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08-14-23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Manchester United -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
It’s a new world in the EPL this season with Chelsea and Liverpool not making the Champions League and Manchester United moving back into the EPL top 4. Last season United had the lowest goals against record in the EPL at home and only lost one game at Old Trafford. Rashford was second in goals to the incomparable Haaland and will look to continue against a Wolves team that is in disarray. The Wolves only made two additions but lost Jimenez, Costa, Neves, Traore and Moutinho. Those holes have not been filled. Their manager from last year cleaned out his office 4 days ago and new skipper O’Neil has had to sort out his new squad in short order. In their last 6 matches the Wolves surrendered 14 goals and only scored 4. Against a stingy United defence this will not improve. The Wolves also failed to win any of their final 8 road games. All in all, you should lay the goals and go with United on this one. |
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08-13-23 | Liverpool v. Chelsea | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
Chelsea and Liverpool both disappointed last season. But they ended their seasons in much different fashions. Chelsea was humiliated in the last stretch with one win in their L 11 while Liverpool found their footing and were undefeated in their final 11. The Reds paid for not rejuvenating their midfield in the first half of last season but have made amends this year with the departures of Henderson and Fabinho and the addition of World Cup champion Mac Allister and Szoboszlai. There were goals galore at both ends of the pitch for the Reds in preseason so expect a dynamic side that will power past the goalless draws the last 4 times these squads met. Newcomers Fofana and Nkunku are out for Chelsea but new manager Pochettino had the Blues winning in preseason. But Liverpool has too much firepower and too much recent success for Chelsea to turn things around for this one. The Reds also have Klopp who will sort out how to make use of his new additions quickly. The Blues should be better but won’t be able to pull off the challenge before them in their opener. Take the Reds in this one. |
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08-12-23 | Cardinals v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
The Royals hammered the Cardinals on Friday. We will likely see less runs in Saturday's game with two solidly performing lefties squaring off. Matz has been very consistent in his last appearances, allowing just 2 runs in 4 starts while averaging 6 innings per appearance. Royals' rookie Ragans has similar numbers since returning to line up, also averaging 6 innings per appearance, and giving up just a pair of runs in his last three starts. He has 19 K's in his last two games! The Royals cashing 12 runs on Friday is not such a surprise; they are second in both BA (.295) and OPS (.851) over the last two weeks. The Cards have been pretty average (14th) in the same time frame. Both teams are hovering around .500 in August. The Cards are a heavy favorite, making the run line look very appealing considering considering Ragans' and the Royals offensive performances. Take KC at +1 1/2. |
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08-12-23 | Tigers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
The Tigers continued to struggle against the Red Sox in game one of their away series. Their right -hander Manning has also struggled lately, with far too many hits and over a run an inning allowed in his last three starts. Opposing batters are hitting him at a .327 clip in August. Bello, the Sox' young right-hander starts for today. Bello saw his ERA creep up in July after a long stretch of quality starts. He bounced back last time out with a fine 6+ inning effort, allowing just a single run. He has consistently pitched better at Fenway than away this season. Boston is tough to beat at home and tougher on right handed pitching than Detroit (.260 vs .231 BA.) The Sox are 12-5 vs. sub .500 teams in the second half. I like Bello's chances today. Detroit has never faced the youngster. Look for Boston to win their fourth straight game. Take the Sox on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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08-12-23 | Luton Town v. Brighton & Hove Albion -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Luton Town is away to Brighton in their first ever game in the Premiership. They are in tough as Brighton has proven to be an offensive force at home with a 6-0 result over Wolves, a 3-0 result over Liverpool and a 4-0 domination of Chelsea at Amex Stadium in Brighton. Brighton just has too much attacking power. Even with the loss of Mac Alllilster and pending loss of Caicedo, their pickups of Milner, Dahoud and Pedro is going to keep coach De Zerbi awash in attacking possibilities. Returnees Estupinan on the back line, Gross in the middle of the park and Welbeck up front should help stabilize recent arrivals. Luton will not have centre backs Burke and Osho available as well as midfielders Clark and Potts. This should open space for Brighton’s attacking style. It should be noted that Brighton only lost 5 at home all last year and only 1 vs teams in the bottom of the table. Luton finished more than 10 points behind Championship leader Burnley and then only advanced after PKs in the qualifying game. Chances are they will be in the bottom half of the table. Luton is likely to work to be difficult to break down but Brighton is just too strong attacking. Lay the points and take Brighton. |
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08-11-23 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal -4.5 | Top | 12-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
The Roughriders have a short turnaround and have to travel for this one. With an inexperienced QB, a banged up D-line, O-line and WR corps this will be difficult for the Riders to be prepared for. It is also important to note that teams off only 4 days rest this season are 2-7 straight up and ATS. The Riders are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against teams with a winning record. Other things are more even as they are side by side in most team defensive categories in the CFL team stats rankings except for opposition offensive TDs, 1st downs allowed and avg. first down yards allowed, where the Als are 1st or 2nd and the Riders are 4th or 6th. It is hard to compare offensive team stats as most of the Riders’ were achieved under the auspices of injured first string QB Harris and QB Fajardo is a game time decision for the Als. Although the Als are 2nd to last in terms of sacks allowed they have only allowed 3 in their last two outings. Last week the Als also had four OLs ranked in the top ten for performance against the pass rush by PFF analysis. The Als are also last in sacks made but the addition of last year’s outstanding western defensive player DL Lemon two games ago started to pay dividends last week as he made 2 sacks, an INT and was the 4th rated DL by PFF analysis. Taking this all together makes this a fine play to lay the points and go with the Als. |
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08-11-23 | Tigers +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -136 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
The Tigers have won three straight with a pair of shutouts in the mix. They will face the Red Sox where they have had very little success in the past. However, with the Sox sporting an ugly 3.4/6.4 runs for and against and a bullpen ERA of over 8.00 in their last ten games, I like the Tigers' chances on Friday. Chris Sale returns from the IL for Boston. With just two short rehab appearances to date, I doubt we will see any length at all from Sale. Do not expect much support from the relievers. Adding to their woes, the Sox are not hitting well at all recently. In fact the Tigers, not known for offense, are outhitting them, especially for average. Tigers' lefty Skubal looked very sharp against the Rays, pitching into the 6th and allowing zero ER's. While he has had a couple of rough outings since his return from the IL, four of his six appearances have been shutouts. The Tigers' bullpen has been performing well in recent games. Boston is a firm favorite today, but I am wagering on the Tigers to at least keep this one close. Take Detroit on the run line at +1 1/2. |
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08-11-23 | Manchester City -1.5 v. Burnley | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Treble winner Man City visits newly promoted Championship winner Burnley for the EPL opener. Their last meeting in the FA Cup quarterfinals in March was a humbling return for Burnley manager and longtime Man City star Kompany as they were dominated 6-0. Burnley still has no answer on the back end for Haaland and Alvarez, who scored 3 and 2 times each in that game and are likely starters for this rematch. City used a rotation squad for that game and might for this fixture as well, as the Super Cup match against Sevilla is on the 16th. That should not prevent Guardiola’s side from continuing their dominant run of form against the Clarets. Many City is 15-1-0 in their last 16 against Burnley. In their last 11 against Burnley Man City has scored five or more goals five times, outscoring them 40-1 over that span. Burnley’s last goal against City was in Dec. 2019. Even with some solid additions that should prevent relegation, Burnley doesn’t match up well against City. Last season’s leading scorer Tella is back at Southhampton and his replacement Amdouni may take a while to gel with his new squad. Kovacic should ably replace Gundogan in the City midfield and Ake and De Bruyne should be available for selection. Laying the goals and going with City is a solid choice to get you into the new season on the right foot (pun intended). |
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08-10-23 | Winnipeg -12 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 38-29 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
These are two teams from different planets. Bombers are coming off a thrashing of the Lions while the Elks were shutout by the Lions the week before their bye. The Bombers are 6-2 while the Elks are 0-8 and on a 21-game home losing streak. It makes for a wild money line and lots of points for the spread lines. The Bombers are first in seven offensive categories while the Elks are last in 5 different defensive categories. There is no need to discuss the Elks’ sorry offensive stats rankings. They are starting 3rd string QB, Canadian Ford, hoping to jump start an offense coming off its second shutout of the season. Given that the Bombers are 1st in sacks made and the Elks are 6th in sacks allowed it could be a long night for Ford. Taking a close look at recent point spread history for these teams gives credence to the expectation of the Bombers to lay the points as high as they will be. The Bombers are 5-3 ATS in their L8 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Elks. In their last 3 vs. the Elks they have won by at least 14 points. The Elks, having lost 21 in a row at home are 3-18 ATS in that stretch, are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 this season and 0-4 ATS after a bye week. None of this bodes well for the Elks so it is clear we should lay the points and take the Bombers on this one. |
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08-10-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The probable starters for Thursday’s early game are relative youngsters with limited major league experience. Elder has had considerable success for the Braves (8-3 record), while Falter is just getting started with the Pirates after a tough start to the year with the Phillies. Elder blew his last start against the Cubs but the two before that were solid outings with 1 and 2 ERs allowed. In Falter’s lone start for the Pirates, he pitched a respectable 4 innings and allowed only 1 ER. Both bullpens have solid relievers available to be called upon with Atlanta’s available relief pitchers owning a slightly lower ERA. Where these two teams are really separated is at the plate. Atlanta has led the majors in avg. and OPS for most of the season and over the last 15 days they are still 1st in both avg. and OPS. They also do well against LH starters with the 2nd best avg and best OPS in the mojors. The Pirates don’t measure up here as they are in the bottom quarter of the league vs. RH starters and bottom half of the majors over the last 15 days in both avg and OPS. Atlanta’s record vs. LH starters is 14-6 while the Pirates record vs. RH starters is 35-44. The Braves also sport a 25-13 record for day games while the Pirates are a mediocre 21-27 for day games. To further cement this call on the spread the Braves have averaged 7 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Pirates have only averaged 4.4 runs/9 innings. That difference alone should be more than enough to justify laying the points and going with the Braves. |
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08-07-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
The Rangers have won six straight, and now face the A's in Oakland. The A's must have close to the worst home record in recent memory, and are very poor vs right-handed pitching. Dunning starts for the Rangers. He had a couple of rough outings in July, but appears to have turned the corner in his last two starts. In his most recent appearance he threw seven+ innings of one run ball with eleven K's. Waldichuk starts for the A's, and he has been very uneven this season. He hasn't pitched out of the fourth inning in any of his recent and infrequent starts. The Dodgers roughed him up for four runs in just three+ innings last time out. A poor A's bullpen (6.00 ERA/L5 games) is not a dependable option if Waldichuk has another short start. It hasn't always been the case, but the Rangers' pen is in top form with an ERA under 2.00/ L7. The Rangers are seeing the ball very well with the third best OPS of .952 in the last week. While the A's have won two straight, this really should be another win for the hard-hitting Rangers. Take Texas on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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08-07-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | 6-7 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
It is the hot-hitting Braves vs the Pirates in Pittsburgh today. Strider starts for Atlanta. After a poorer start vs the D-backs, he has bounced back with two fine outings; 6+innings each, 3 runs total given up and 19 K's. The Pirates are fifth worst in strikeouts in the last two weeks, so watch that K number today. Strider pitches better on the road this year. He will face Bido who is a rookie starter/long reliever for the Pirates. He has had very mixed results this season but has been ineffective in his 3 most recent starts, none of which has lasted more than 4 innings. The Braves have the edge in recent relief pitching (2.16 vs 4.98 L5 games). Atlanta is still dominating the league hitting stats, sitting at an impressive .304/.950 over the last two weeks. The Pirates are just .224/.712 in the same period. The Pirates won their last series, but don't tend to have much success with Bido on the mound. Atlanta is 8-3 as a road favorite, and is very tough on right-handers. The Braves could be a little ornery today after losing a rare last series. Take Atlanta on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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08-06-23 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan +2.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 41 h 27 m | Show |
The CFL has slowly begun to figure RedBlacks’ new sensation, QB Crumb, out. It already began two weeks ago vs. the Stamps as they put an LB in place to “spy him.” They didn’t quite get it down pat, but last week the TiCats did as they put pressure on him and suffocated him in the pocket. He ran as many times as he completed passes. That is not a way to succeed in the CFL. The RedBlacks have five receivers either out or questionable with injuries. That won’t make it any easier for Crumb. The Roughriders held both the Lions’ and the Argos’ offences in check over the last two weeks and should have an easier time of it vs. the RedBlacks. This is backup QB Fine’s 3rd start in a row. He should be starting to feel more comfortable and his solid numbers over the past two weeks should translate into points. Take the points and the Riders for the win. |
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08-06-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Detroit evened their home series vs the Rays on Saturday much to my surprise and dismay. It will be Manning vs Glasnow on Sunday. Glasnow has been super sharp lately, giving the Rays seven innings in three straight games, while allowing just four runs total. He has pitched better on the road this season. Manning returned from the IL in fine form, but his last two games have been poor. He has given up 4 home runs in the two games. The Rays really should win this one. The Tigers are poor at home and 29th in the league against right handed pitching. Glasnow is one of the finest right handers around at the moment. The Rays are hitting much better than in their dark days of July, and fifth in the league against right handers. Their bullpen is showing signs of improvement, and has a decided edge on the Tigers' relief corps. Considering how the Orioles are playing, Tampa really can't afford a series loss to a lesser team like the Tigers. Tampa is 4-1 against the Tigers this year, including Friday's 8-0 pasting. Look for Tampa to rebound from Saturday's loss in a big way. Game three will go to the Rays. Take Tampa on the Run line at -1 1/2. |
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08-05-23 | Montreal -2.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
With the Argos running away with the East title, second place is still up for grabs. By winning this, the Als could put the TiCats to bed and make it between the Als and the RedBlacks. Given that star offseason signing QB Mitchell is out again long term and Hamilton is down to their 3rd string QB this should be it. The Als won handily, 38-12, in the first meeting between these two and would take the season series with a win Saturday. QB Fajardo has been outstanding after a down year last season and is 4th in pass efficiency, 3rd in yds/pass and 1st with the lowest interception rate. On top of that the Als have the highest graded O-line according to PFF. 3rd stringer Powell for the TiCats has the lowest avg. passing depth in the league so he won’t be able to threaten the Al’s defense. Powell has come in to lead an offense that sports the 2nd worst turnover ratio, INTs thrown and penalty rate. And to top it off Hamilton’s last two starting LTs are hurt, which will be dangerous for the backside outside rush. The other problem for the TiCats is their “D” has been less than stellar. They had a solid outing against a mediocre offense in the RedBlacks but are worst in the league in points allowed, opposition TDs, avg. 1st down plays against and 2nd worst in avg. rush yds against, number of opposition 1st downs, opposition pass efficiency allowed, 30+ yard plays allowed, and opposition yards/play. Time to lay the points and go with the Als. |
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08-05-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
The Royals are a surprising 4-0 in August, hitting well above their weight at .327 BA/.894 OPS in the last week. They swept both the Mets and Twins, but considering their season, it is hard to think that this surge is sustainable. One negative in this 8-2 run is the bullpen, 28th ranked this year, and with a 5.45 ERA over the last ten games. The Royals are a poor road team this year, and struggle against left handed pitching. They will face a fine young lefty in the Phillies' Sanchez. He has come into his own since mid-June and has allowed no more than 3 runs in 5 starts, sporting a very fine .172 Op BA in July. The Phillies do have a good bullpen this year, a rarity for them in recent history. Their offense has been just average recently but they will have their chances today when facing the Royals' Marsh. The rookie right-hander has struggled more often than not in his first season, giving up 9 runs over 8 innings in his last two starts. Walks, hit batters, and the long ball have all been issues. This is the day the Royals come back to earth. Take the 6-4 Phillies on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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08-04-23 | Toronto -8 v. Calgary | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 48 m | Show |
Eventually the Argos undefeated string will end but not this week. They are 6-0 straight up and ATS. Their offence sputtered a bit last week but between their top notch “D” and their special teams they still put up over 30 points and kept the RoughRiders out of the end zone until garbage time. The Stamps only pulled off field goals last weekend vs. the Als. The Stamps are coming off only 4 days rest and their chaotic offense under QB Maier is too mistake prone for the Argos with their league leading +16 turnover ratio, not to take advantage of. Maier has thrown 11 INTs while the Argos have made 16 INTs. The Stamps rush game averages only 85 yds/game (7th in the league) and only 51 yds/game for the last 3 games while the Argos only allow 63 yds/game (2nd in the league). This should make it even tougher for the Stamps pass game. The Stamps do not match up well with the Argos in so many ways and will not be able to make up the spread. |
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08-01-23 | White Sox v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
The Rangers and the White Sox couldn’t be headed in more different directions. The White Sox just traded their top two starters, their closer and their 3rd best reliever. Consequently, this will be a bullpen game for them with probable starter Scholtens making his third start of the season instead of coming out of the bullpen. There are big holes in the rest of the bullpen that will be called on to help out. Scholtens lost both starts and has a WHIP of 1.97 in them, so it doesn’t bode well for the White Sox. Probable starter Heany for the Rangers is in a more accustomed position with a 2.80 ERA in his last 5 starts, having shutout the opposition in two of those starts. At the plate the Rangers have been 1st in avg. and 2nd in OPS in the majors against RH starters. They have cooled down overall lately with a couple of injuries to key contributors but are still far superior to the White Sox who are 23rd in avg and 26th in OPS in the majors over the last 15 days. On the road with their 20-35 record the White Sox have a -0.7 run differential/9 innings while the Rangers with their 34-20 home record have a +1.6 run differential/9 innings. Clearly the White Sox are in tough in so many ways that laying the points for the Rangers is a clear call. |
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07-31-23 | Guardians v. Astros -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 105 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
A pair of teams pushing for the lead in their respective divisions square off when the Guardians face the Astros in Houston on Monday. The Guardians, a .500 team for the season, are four games under .500 on the road. While their hitting has improved somewhat lately, Cleveland is averaging just 4.1 Runs per game lately. The Astros (.281/.844) are leading the league in OPS over the last week, and stand a good chance of spoiling Syndergaard's Guardians debut. Thor struggled to a +ten ERA over his last three starts with the Dodgers. It is hard to see him pitching much better on Monday as quality starts are rare when he is on the mound this year. JP France starts for Houston. The Astros are 5-0 in his recent starts. He has a 1.47 ERA in this last two appearances, allowing just a single run over 14 innings and has been very consistent this season. The Astros and Guardians are known for bullpen excellence. This has not been the case lately, but the Astros can certainly expect to get more innings out of France than Syndergaard. Take the superior starter and more potent offense of the home team to win out on Monday. I am wagering on the Astros on the Run Line at -1.5. |
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07-30-23 | Reds +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
The 7-3 Reds seem to know how to win this year. They are getting good starting pitching, which includes Sunday's starter Ashcraft. He has pitched well this month after a dreadful June, with a 2.331 ERA in July, giving up 2 or less runs in his last 6 starts. It is a similar story for the Dodgers' Grove; poor June followed by a solid July, with a 3.66 ERA for the month. One caveat for Grove is his Op BA, a hefty .308 for the month. The Dodgers are hitting well, .271 BA, .806 OPS, considerably better than the Reds. The Reds have a youthful enthusiasm this season earning a split in the last two games , and a 3-2 season lead with the Dodgers. Aschcraft has been consistent enough lately to question the Dodgers as a heavy favorite. Both series games have been decided by a single run. Take the Reds on the run line at +1 1/2. |
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07-29-23 | BC -7 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The sad sack Elks are in tough. This won’t be the night they win their first in 20 games at home or when they cover the spread. The Lions are just too good. The Lions’ “D” is first in the CFL in points allowed and net offence allowed. The Elks’ offence is last in points scored and net offence. The Lions’ “D” is second in sacks while the Elks offence has allowed the 3rd most sacks in the league. QB Cornelius for the Elks has the worst pass efficiency rating (for qualified QBs) in the league and the Lions have the best pass defence in the league. The Elks have given up the most turnovers, most interceptions and have the worst turnover ratio (-6). Have you heard enough yet? The Elks allow 144 yds/game rushing (worst in the CFL) and the Lions get their star RB Mizzell, back in the lineup. And just for a clincher the Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 while the Elks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7. The Elks are in big trouble. They were shutout last game against the Lions. Saturday will not be enough of an improvement to stop the Lions. Pick the Lions and lay the points. |
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07-29-23 | Saskatchewan +11 v. Toronto | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 44 m | Show |
The Argonauts have been a juggernaut but not as heavy a favorite as the books are offering. They will be missing a couple of receivers and DL Costigan. Modest losses to say the least. What isn’t accounted for is the return of at least 2 and maybe 3 receivers to the Riders lineup. The Riders will also get starting center Godber back to stabilize their problematic O-line in front of 2nd string QB Fine who will have had a week of reps, film and confidence building after a tough outing against the vaunted BC Lions defence. With Godber back the rush game must improve some which in turn will improve the pass game. On defence the Riders get stud DL Lanier back to add to a pass rush that was successful vs. the Lions last week. The Riders also signed all-star and INT leader in 2021, Washington. Although he won’t start he should get a chance to make a difference When comparing the two squads, some key areas are very close. In opposition net offence allowed, the Riders are 3rd and the Argos are 4th and in first downs allowed those positions are reversed. In points allowed the Riders allow 24.5/game while the Argos allow 22.2. In passing “D” the Argos are 8th which should allow a little more success for QB Fine. When all is said and done, expect the Riders to lose the game but to cover the spread. |
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07-28-23 | Hamilton v. Ottawa -3.5 | Top | 16-12 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 26 m | Show |
It looks like QB Mitchell will be back for the TiCats this week. It really isn’t any reason to be excited as he has some daunting stats to take note of. He didn’t do well for the Stamps last season and lost his place to Maier. But this season his rough ways continued with a 58% completion rate, 53.3 passer efficiency rating and 4 INT vs. 1 TD pass to start out with before he was hurt. He is returning to play against the best “D” in the league for avg. rushing gain against, 2nd best rush yards against/game and 3rd best in first downs allowed. His own offence had a very weak run game against the Stamps last week with only 38 yards total on the ground. It could even be worse this week. DB Dandridge for the RedBlacks has the second most INTs in the league. He along with the rest of the Red Blacks “D” will be looking to feast on an O-line that has to pass block all game long and adding to their 4th highest sack total in the league at Mitchell’s expense. On the other side of the ball Crumb will have even more reps in practice as starting QB to fine tune his game against a Hamilton “D” that has allowed the most points against, TDs and yards/play in the CFL. They are also 2nd to last in first downs allowed. Crumb will also have little to fear against a defence with the 2nd least INTs and least turnovers caused. With the Red Blacks top rated run game (that includes Crumb himself), Crumb will have plenty of options and time for his pass game. Clearly you should lay the points and take Ottawa for this one. |
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07-24-23 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
The Pirates swept the Padres in Pittsburgh in June, so a little payback may be in order, starting on Monday. Yu Darvish will start for the Padres and he has been very sharp in July, allowing 3,1, and 0 runs in his last three starts. The Pirates have not been hitting well (.218 BA, 6.635 OPS), and are just 4 -13 in July. Their runs for/runs against ratio is a rough 3.0/6.4. A very fresh face will start for the Pirates. Priester was roughed up in his first career start, allowing seven runs and a pair of home runs in five + innings. The Padres are not a team you want to face when giving up long balls. San Diego is hitting better of late (.245, .798), and ran up 14 runs just a couple of starts ago. Both teams are getting reasonable relief pitching at the moment, but I think the Padres might run up the score early in this game. Take San Diego on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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07-22-23 | Giants -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
It will be pitching vs hitting when the Nationals face the Giants in Washington on Saturday. The Nats are outhitting the Giants at the moment; Washington is 6th in OPS while the Giants are way down yonder at 27th in the last two weeks. When it comes to pitching it is no contest. Washington has the league's worst pitching over the last two weeks with an ugly 6.13 ERA. Their bullpen is approaching double figures in ERA in that time frame. The Nats are giving up a whopping 7.7 runs a game compared to 4.1 for SF. Webb starts for the Giants. He is a work horse in top form, giving up just 4 runs while striking out 28 over 22+ innings in his last three starts. He'll face Josiah Gray, who has had some fine starts this year, but can struggle. 4or 5 runs given up over 5 innings is a common thread for Gray. While Webb may pitch better at home, Gray's ERA is nearly double in home games. |
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07-22-23 | Saskatchewan v. BC -10 | Top | 9-19 | Push | 0 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
The Riders have devoted fans across the country. No one wants to rain on their enthusiasm. Sorry Riders fans, this doesn’t look good. You are going to have to pick the Lions on this one even when your boys are given maybe double digit points. It starts with injuries. QB Harris is out for the season. Starting center Godber is out and maybe LT Council. The Riders O-line has struggled immensely giving up 4 sacks/game (7 last week) against a Lions’ pass rush that has the 2nd most sacks in the league. The Riders are last in avg. rushing gain on 1st down. The Lions’ “D” allows the 2nd least avg. yards rushing on 1st down. QB Fine is starting his first game. It could get ugly for pass protection. And even if he has some time occasionally, the Lions’ “D” is 1st or 2nd in almost every category in the league on pass defense. On the other side of the ball the Riders will be missing MLB Dean, DL Lanier and at least two starting DBs. Their “D” has been solid this year but won’t be able to get off the field with all the 2 and outs the Rider “O” will serve up. And the Lions’ run game is rounding into form. It will allow their very solid O-line to set up solid pass protection for QB Adams to find his bevy of star receivers (Whitehead, Rhymes, Hatcher and now Hollins) and pick apart the hurting Rider “D”. To add insult to injury the Lions are coming off a bye week (teams are 6-1 this season after a by week) and are healthy. They are 5-0 ATS in their L5 at home and 7-3 ATS in their L10 after a bye. So, Riders fans, hold your nose, lay the points and take the Lions. Everyone else, just leave your nose out of it. |
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07-22-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -144 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
It is a battle of two offensive juggernauts when the Dodgers, leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, face the home-town Rangers who aren't far behind at .801. The Dodgers blew out Texas in the late innings to win game one of the series. The Rangers were 6-0 previous to that game, sweeping the Rays while holding them to just six runs in the series. The Dodgers are 8-2 L10 games. Rookie Bobby Miller (3-1, 5.02 ERA/L7 games) starts for LA. He has had some solid if short starts this season, but tends to struggle after the fourth inning with an ERA of 11.57 in the fifth. He will face Dane Dunning who has been a pillar of consistency, allowing two or less runs in five of his last six appearances, while averaging six innings per start. Dunning is 5-0 at home. |
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07-21-23 | Astros v. A's +1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
It is hard to find anything positive about the A's at the moment, other than Friday's starter, lefty J.P. Sears. He delivers quality starts more often than not and has given up just 4 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts, holding opponents to a very low ERA of .169 in July. Sears is better at home. The last three of his starts have been decided by one run. He'll face one of the premier left handers in the Astros' Valdez. He has struggled a little in his last three games, allowing 11 runs over 18 innings. In spite of 13 K's last time out he still allowed 5 runs over six innings. Mind you, he faces the A's and not the Angels on Friday. Valdez hasn't pitched as well on the road this year. The Astros have the superior bullpen but it hasn't been as sharp lately. About all that can be said about Oakland's relievers, is that they will be well-rested after Thursday's game. |
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07-20-23 | Canada W -1.5 v. Nigeria W | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
Olympic champion Canada has a target on its back and is struggling with conflict within their soccer federation at home. But this team with some legendary veterans and outstanding rising stars has fared well in the lead up to this. Coach Priestman commitment to defense, has world class defenders and a goalkeeper that can earn clean sheets but also has ageless striker and all-time international goal scoring leader Sinclair. They are capable of shutting down anyone. They also have a rising star in midfielder Awujo who is capable of controlling the flow of play. They beat Nigeria 2-0 in a friendly and then tied them using most of their bench. They also beat Australia in two friendlies in Australia. In the lead up they won their group in CONCACAF and then lost to world number one ranked USA in the final. If they can overcome the turmoil, they should be the team to beat in this group. Nigeria has had their own turmoil, as they lost two games in the Africa Cup (which used to be something they dominated) and have had battles with their own federation over unpaid salaries and political selection pressures on the coach. They have a star striker in Oshoala who is fresh off a Champions League win with Barcelona. Being ranked 40th in the FIFA is no match for 7th ranked Canada and they are widely predicted to exit the group stage. |
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07-20-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
The A's won at home on Wednesday, but that is all the winning they've done at 1-9. The Astros haven't been that much better at 5-5, but they are on a 6-0 run vs Oakland this year. They haven't been getting their usual fine pitching lately, but you can't blame it on Thursday's starter, right hander Ty Frances. The Late bloomer has been a steady presence in the Astros rotation. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer and generally pitched into the 6th since the beginning of June. He has been especially sharp in away games. The Astros haven't given France much run support but they will have their chances against lefty A's rookie Hogan Harris. Harris is an occasional starter/long reliever who has had poor results in his last three games, giving up more than a run an inning. The A's bullpen is a mess this year and even with the Astro's pen underachieving lately, I still favor the Astros in the later innings. |
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07-20-23 | Norway W -1.5 v. New Zealand W | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
Host New Zealand has qualified for the last 4 World Cups. They haven’t advanced out of the group stage or even scored a goal. But this World Cup will be different right? Nope. After Klinkova was appointed coach they won only one of their first 14 and were outscored 35-5. As host , not having to qualify has led them to a most recent record of friendlies of 1-7-1. They have had five significant injuries in the past year but all have recently returned. It’s doubtful that they have returned to top form. They have had the worst sustained stretch of any team in the field. Norway on the other hand has been a traditional powerhouse in women’s football. Recently they were humbled though by England 8-0 in the Euros. Norway legend Riise took over the reigns as coach and has transformed their approach with a defensively stable 4-3-3 or 5-4-1. This led to beating the finalist from the last World Cup, Netherlands 2-0 in November and drawing Sweden and France earlier this year. They are the Group A favorite and with superstar Hegerberg and rising star Hansen should dominate the struggling New Zealand side even though they are the hosts. Lay the points and take the Norwegian side. |
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07-19-23 | Brewers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Two hot teams and two solid probable starting pitchers will be tested to different degrees. Southpaw Sanchez has been outstanding for the Phillies since he joined the rotation after his recall June 17th. He has a stellar 2.77 Era in 5 starts with only 8 ERs in 26 IP. His WHIP in June was 1.00 and a tiny 0.73 in July. He will be throwing against a Brewers squad that has the 29th avg and 26th OPS in the majors against lefties. This is certainly a chance for Sanchez to extend his solid run of late. Rea has been solid for the Brewers but his July ERA and WHIP have begun to creep up to 5.56 and 1.24 respectively. Rea will be going up against Phillies’ batters that have been red hot in July. They have the 5th best avg. and OPS in the majors for this month. He has only gone past 6 innings twice this year so his bullpen will be relied on. The available relievers for this game are solid but the bullpen staff has been just OK on the road with a 4.29 ERA. If Sanchez needs help the Phillies bullpen has been solid at home with a 2.99 ERA. This should be a chance for the Phillies bats to continue their July success while it doesn’t look promising for the Brewers against this solid lefthanded starter. Take the Phillies on the Run Line. |
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07-18-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
Another pick with two hot teams. Probable pitcher Grove for the Dodgers has had a very tough year with an injury, a rehab assignment and a total of four recalls from the minors. He just recently got his ERA below 7.00 for the season and although his WHIP has been falling it is still 1.40 so far for July. Probable starter Wells for the Orioles has been a bright light for them and has been the picture of consistency with all 7 of his most recent starts having 2 ERs in each. He does his part day in and day out. In terms of available bullpen help, the Dodgers have been better than the Orioles of late although the Orioles still hold the edge over the whole season. These are two elite teams at the plate over the last 15 days. The Dodgers are 2nd in OPS and 12th in avg in the majors, while the Orioles are 3rd in OPS and 4th in avg. The Dodgers are only 22-20 against teams with a winning record while the Orioles are 30-19. The clincher for me was the comparison of each team’s recent streak. The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 against weaker opposition (Mets, Angels and Pirates). The Orioles have won eight straight vs. much stronger teams (Marlins, Twins and Yankees) and their average margin of victory is 5 runs. This last stat was the clincher for me that convinced me to recommend you lay the points and go with the Orioles. |
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07-18-23 | Brewers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
Both the Phillies and the Brewers have been hot lately. But probable pitcher Teheran has been hit hard in his last two starts (6 and 7 earned runs against) and by at least three of the current Phillies’ batters . In his last 47 AB, Harper alone has 9 HR, 21 RBI, 12 BB and a .404 avg against Teheran. Harper is not the MVP he once was but he is having a fine year as he is 2nd on the Phillies in avg. and tops in OPS. Probable starter Nola for the Phillies has won his last two starts vs. Teheran and is 5-1 in his last 10 starts vs. Milwaukee. Nola is also 9th in the majors with 120 SO. Both bullpens have been solid with the Brewers being a little stronger, but the damage should be done before the Brewers’ relievers can step in. Lay the points and take the Phillies. |
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07-16-23 | Twins v. A's +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
The Twins have racked up a pair of victories in their road series vs Oakland. They will send out Joe Ryan for the sweep today. Unfortunately Ryan has been very uneven lately, with three of his last five starts of the outright poor variety. In spit of ten Ks in his last appearance, he gave up five runs in four+ innings. The A's send out young lefty JP Sears, who is much better than his record would suggest. He has pitched well in his last seven starts with a 3.38 ERA, including twelve+ innings of one run ball in his last two appearances. |
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07-16-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
The Royals squandered a pair of fine starting pitching performances on Saturday, losing both sides of a double header in the late innings. Singer will start for KC. His last two starts typify his season. He had probably his best performance against the Dodgers 2 starts ago, allowing just a run over 7 innings pitched, but followed up with a 6 run 5 inning appearance against the Guardians. With more poor starts than quality ones, you really don't know what you will get from him. Singer has struggled in the early innings and in day games. Whether he pitches well or poorly, the Royals pen is not dependable, allowing 7 runs from the 7th on in Saturday's double header. The Rays' pen allowed 0 runs in the same time frame on Saturday. |
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07-15-23 | Winnipeg -9.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
The points offered in the Saturday game between the Bombers and the RedBlacks are the largest for a Bombers’ game since October 2022 when they were playing the hapless Elks. It seems like a lot until you look at the state of the RedBlacks’ offence. They are down to their 4th string QB who has never started a CFL game. In relief last week he threw 2 INTs on a team that already leads the CFL with 8 INTs given up. He is up against a Bomber D-line that is 2nd in the CFL in sacks and has the 2nd best rushing defence in the league. Given that the RedBlacks depend on their running game (3rd best in the CFL), all the Bombers need to do is fill the box to stuff the run and sit back while their D-line harries new QB Crumb and feast on his inexperienced attempts. The points on offer for this game would need to be well into double digits to make this viable to go against the Bombers. Don’t forget, the RedBlacks are last in the league in all four major passing categories (average gain/pass, passing TDs, 30+yards passing plays, passing efficiency). This is not going to miraculously improve in this game. Although the RedBlacks “D” has been respectable this season, they won’t be able to hold down the fort when they are on the field for most of the game. In the above-mentioned passing categories, the Bombers are 4th, 2nd, 2nd and 1st and in rushing yards/game they are 1st. It should prove to be a long night for the RedBlacks and no problem for you to lay the points and pick the Bombers. |
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07-15-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
The Rays were on a very rare 1-7 plod before the break, getting short and poor outings from their starters, taxing their overworked bullpen. Add to that, an offense that scored just 1 run in 4 of 6 of their last games. The Break couldn't have come at a better time. The Royals are among the cellar dwellers in offense, overall pitching and bullpen results and a lamentable 13-31 at home. Just what the doctor ordered for the Rays to step out of their funk. Glasnow starts for Tampa. He last faced the Royals in July, holding them to a single run with 12 strikeouts. He will face Royals rookie right-hander Marsh, who has just 2 starts under his belt, allowing 8 runs in 9 innings. The Rays are not the team you want to face for that critical third start. Tampa is a heavy favorite, even on the run line, but still a worthwhile bet. Look for a HUGE game from Glasnow and the Rays and pay the points. |
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07-14-23 | Guardians +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 4-12 | Loss | -154 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
The Rangers stumbled to 3-7 over their last 10 games before the break. They are still Top 6 in OPS over the last 2 weeks but are 27th in pitching over the same stretch. Rangers' righty Jon Gray has lost three straight, and 3 of his last 4 starts have been of the poor variety. He was hit very hard (.360 BA) by the Red Sox in his last start. He is up against a very fine right hander in Cleveland's Civale, who has averaged 6+ innings pitched and given up 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. He has an 0.69 ERA with 0 walks in 2 starts in July. He will likely pitch longer than Gray and the Guardians have the better bullpen, but everyone's pen should be rested and ready to go. Cleveland has been hitting much better, for average at least. They are 6-3 in July, 8th in BA over the last two weeks. I like the Guardians chances on Friday. While Texas is power hitting side, it remains to be seen if they will continue to struggle. As good as they have been this year, they are just .500 as a home favorite. Take the Guardians, behind Civale's pitching to keep this one close. Take Cleveland on the Run line at +1 1/2. |
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07-14-23 | Toronto -5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
The Argos and the Als are early season favs in the Eastern Conference. Argos are missing LT Cage and MLB Williams and LB Muamba. But their defence has been one of the top without those two LBs and with a rotating cast of DLs. Heninger is the only major absentee for the Als on the DL as top DB Evans is slated to return. The major problem for the Als is their O-line, healthy or not, just can’t seem to get the job done for the rushing game. The Als were last of all the teams that played last week, for rushing performance. This week they face an Argos “D” that is first in the CFL in run yards against, average run yards against and rush TDs. Given that the Als have also surrendered the most sacks in the CFL on QB Fajardo they will be in a tough place. With no threat of a run game, the Argos will be able to pin their ears back and go for it when Fajardo will be having to pass so often. On the offensive side of the ball, except for the Als' week run game the two teams are a saw off. Coach Dinwiddie of the Argos has his team 5-2 when coming off a bye week. The Argos were 2-1 in the series against the Als last season (losing only a mean nothing game in the last week of the season). The Argos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against Eastern Conference opposition. The Als are in tough so lay the points and go with the Argos. |
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07-09-23 | Montreal v. BC -7 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
The Lions and the Als both had their offences humbled last week. Given that these two teams possess the top two defenses by the numbers, this could be a tough week. They are 1st and 2nd in terms of points allowed by the opposition offence, net offence allowed/game, passing yards allowed/game, and the opposition’s passing efficiency. The Als also are second in the league in interceptions which after throwing 6 picks last week will not be welcome news for Lions’ QB Adams. BC does have the highest average passing yardage/game and passing TDs but Montreal counters with the highest passing efficiency rating and average gain/pass. So where do the opportunities exist in this standoff. First of all BC’s WR Whitehead returns to action, making Sunday’s game the first all season that will feature him with Hatcher and Ryhmes (last season’s only three 1000 receivers on one team). Second, the Als will be missing two starting DBs, Evans and Lyon, so that will reduce QB Adams’ fear of picks. Evans has been especially effective as he is tied for the league lead in interceptions (BC will be missing one Starting DB). But third and most tellingly, the Als have allowed the 2nd most sacks in the CFL this year. The Lions’ defense has made more sacks than any other CFL team. That in tandem with the Als’ weak running game should spell a long night for QB Fajardo. Historically the Als have not fared well in Vancouver as they have only two wins since 2000. It doesn’t look like the Als will break that string of defeats in Week 5 either. Pick the Lions and lay the points. |
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07-09-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Rangers and Nats split the first two games of their Washington interleague series, but I like the Rangers chances in the tie breaker on Sunday. Rangers' right hander Dunning (8-1, 2.69 ERA) has been sharp and consistent since day one. He gave up just five runs in June. In his last three starts he has averaged seven innings pitched with a 2.08 ERA. He will face aging and long suffering lefty Patrick Corbin (5-10, 6.88 ERA). He is a workhorse for innings and can have an occasional quality start. Corbin shut out the Mariners over five innings, but sandwiched that start with a pair of very rough innings. The rough starts are unfortunately more of the norm; he was hit at a .322 clip in June. |
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07-08-23 | Mets +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -132 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The 7-0 Mets are starting to fulfill their potential in all categories including starting and relief pitching. This includes lefty Peterson, who has pitched well in his two games back from an extended visit to the minors. While not pitching past the fifth, he has allowed just a single run over ten innings in those two appearances. While the jury is still out, it appears he has re-found some of last year's form. He'll face another left hander, Blake Snell, who is 4-1 with an ERA of 0.64 in his last seven games, with two shutouts in his last three starts. |
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07-08-23 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The Jays have won four straight games, thumping the Tigers on Friday. Detroit will try and even the series, sending out right hander Matt Manning. With just two starts under his belt since a long stay on the IL, Manning has given up 6 runs in 10+ innings since returning. The Tigers will need innings from him on Saturday; the bullpen has struggled to a 6.75 ERA/L10 games. Gausman starts for the Jays. The All-Star has pitched well this season with very infrequent poor starts. He had a 2.97 ERA in June, putting up 50 K's and allowed just 2 runs in his last start. The Jays have been getting reasonable success from the pen of late. The Jays have won four straight games, are top ten in slugging over the last 10 games, and are starting to get offense from their big bats, especially Bichette and Guerrero. They are tough on righ t handed pitching. The Tigers are still scuffling down in the basement at 27th in OPS/ L10 and 28th against right handers this season. I am wagering on the favored Jays today. Take Toronto on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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07-06-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan -7.5 | Top | 11-12 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
The Elks can’t catch a break. Still winless, they are coming off of 3 games in 11 days and a short week to prepare for their second road game in a row. Their O-line is still in a state of chaos with two more injuries, as QB Cornelius will return after losing his starters' role for last week. Consequently, they have allowed the most sacks in the CFL. The Elks are also last in offensive points and net yards in the CFL. To make matters worse their defense is last in total points allowed, last in rush yards allowed and they have allowed the most big plays(20+yds. rush, 30+ yds pass) of any “D” in the league. They are not in a good place in so many ways. Their pass “D” is a little more respectable but they are going against the 2nd top passer in the league in QB Harris. The Riders also have injury problems on their O-line but they at least are coming off a bye week. Two starters on the O-line are out and one more is questionable. Even so they still have the 3rd most productive ground game in the CFL with the dynamic duo of Hickson and Morrow. Given the Elks weak pass rush 9last in the league) and rush defence the Riders shouldn’t be troubled. As if the Elks don’t have enough problems they also have discipline problems as they have the 2nd most penalty yards against while the Riders have the 2nd least. All of this points to a Riders win and covering the spread. |
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07-06-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
The Guardians took two of three from the Royals in KC at the end of June, outscoring them 19-6. In their home series opener, they'll send out their impressive rookie Bibee who has certainly been trending in the right direction in his last three games, allowing three runs, then one, then finishing with a shutout, pitching five or more innings in each start. The Guardians' bullpen is generally very solid, but especially so at home this year. Their 2.18 ERA is less than half the Royals relievers' road ERA. The rookie will face the Royals' Lyles (1-11, 6.68 ERA). Lyles improved in June, finishing with a 5.40 ERA. He gave up four and three runs in his last two starts, but as his record would suggest, he doesn't get a ton of run or relief support. He has a very poor road ERA of 8.02 this year. The 3-7 Royals were just swept by the Twins, are second last in OPS over the last two weeks, and are 12-30 in road games this season. The Guardians are hitting 40 points higher for average and 70 points higher in OPS over the last two weeks. Cleveland is a heavy favorite, but a very strong option on the run line. Take the Guardians at -1.5. |
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07-05-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Guardians | Top | 8-1 | Win | 104 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
Soroka for the Braves and Quantrill for the Guardians are both just recently back in the majors. Neither has settled in well yet. Soroka’s last three starts have resulted in a 6.89 ERA. Quantrill has been even worse in his last 3, losing them all and getting shelled to the tune of a 15.44 ERA. His last one, which was his first after his rehab assignment, he lasted 3.1 innings and was shelled for 6 runs. Chances are both managers will go to their bullpen fairly early which will be tough as they played 10 innings Tuesday night. The Braves bullpen has had 1.99 ERA in its last 3 and 2.88 ERA in its last 10. The Guardians (who have a good bullpen) have had a 4.88 ERA in their last 3 and 3.96 in their last 10 so the edge goes to the Braves in this one. The Braves bats though have been tops in the majors the last 15 days with the #1 OPS and #2 avg while the Guardians have been in the bottom third of the majors for OPS (9th in avg.). This season the Braves have been 27-12 on the road, 13-3 as a road fav, 7-1 in their last 8 road games and 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. RHP. The Guardians have been a modest 20-20 at home this season. This all adds up to the Braves having no problem covering the spread. |
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07-04-23 | Cardinals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 2-15 | Win | 130 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Probable starter, 41 year old Wainwright for the Cards has been looking like his nickname (Uncle Charlie) out there lately. In his last 3 starts he has averaged 3.7 IP, 1.3 SO and 5.3 earned runs against. In June his ERA and WHIP ballooned to 9.00 and 2.23 respectively. Marlins’ Luzardo’s June ERA and WHIP of 0.93 and .673 respectively are in sharp contrast to Wainwright’s numbers. Those are pretty extreme numbers at either end of the continuum for both pitchers. This could be the end of the road for Wainwright. With Wainwright getting pulled so early lately, that is a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has struggled to a n 8.27 ERA in its last 5 games. The Marlins’ bullpen has been better as of late and so should be able to carry Lazardo’s start across the finish line if needs be. Both teams have been in the top ¼ of the majors in hitting stats lately but clearly the Cards will have a tougher go against Luzardo than the Marlins will against Wainwright. The Marlins should easily cover the spread on this one. |
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07-03-23 | BC -3 v. Toronto | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 44 m | Show |
It is only week 4 and already we have a big game between the last two remaining undefeated teams. Some pundits are calling it a pick ‘em match up. I disagree strongly. This means they will bail out and offer an over/under pick. But there is a clear play here. The easiest way to make sense of it is to look at the quality of the opposition each team has played. Much like Saturday’s game, one team has gone up against much tougher opponents. BC has played the Bombers (now 3-1), the Stampeders and of course the weak Elks. Toronto has faced the RedBlacks (1-2) and the TigerCats (0-3). Against weaker opposition the Argos’ defence has allowed more than 100 yards more per game than the Lions’ defence. The have also allowed opposing QBs to complete 77% (9th in CFL) of their passes while the Lions have allowed only a 57% (2nd in CFL) completion rate. BC’s stingy “D” has allowed a meager 7 pts/game while the Argos have allowed 22 pts/game. Yes the Argos are near the top with 399 yds/game offence, 37.5 pts/game and only 1 sack allowed but they have not faced anything close to the Lions’ defence which leads the league with 11 sacks. To add to their level of difficulty on Monday, the Argos will be without their starting LT Cage (a crucial position against league sack leader Betts who humbled all star LT Bryant in week 3). The Lions will be missing one of their star receivers, Whitehead, but they will have two of last year’s 1000 yard receivers back in the lineup. Rhymes and Hatcher missed the game against the Bombers but will return to give QB Adams more weapons. The Argos will also be missing MLB Williams and LB Muamba, so the CFL’s second leading rusher Mizzell will be harder to handle. It seems clear that the play is for the Lions to cover the spread. |
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07-02-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
The Nationals weren't feeling much love in Philadelphia on Saturday. After a close win on Friday night, the floodgates opened with the Phillies scoring 19 runs. Washington will face a very tough left-hander on Sunday in Ranger Suarez. Suarez has spent much of the season on the IL, but certainly looks to be back in form in June. That's now 5 consistently dominant starts and an ERA of 1.08 for the month. The Nats' Williams lost to the Phillies earlier in the year. He has been uneven this Year with a poor and a good start in his last 2 appearances, but his ERA for June was 5.04. He has a poor K. to W. ratio of late and doesn't pitch as well on the road. The Nationals used 6 relief pitchers on Saturday and have a bullpen ERA of over 5.00 lately, so no one will be rushing to Williams' aid. |
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07-01-23 | Winnipeg -6 v. Montreal | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
The Bombers were humbled last week against the Lions. They are a veteran team. They don’t lose their focus and run around like angry young men in practice to get back on track. They know that they have what it takes. Many of them took practices off this week to lick their wounds and reset. Star defender Jeffcoat will be back on the D-line and veteran CB Houston will be back in the secondary after being out against the Lions. They know Alouettes QB Fajardo has a banged-up O-line that has already averaged 5 sacks against a game to start the season and will be eager to take advantage. The Alouettes defence has done well against 2 of the 3 worst teams in the CFL so far this season. But now they are banged up with MLB Williams and star DB Evans on IR. DL Heninger may not play either. Bombers QB Collaros will have taken note and his proud veteran O-line will want to make amends after surrendering an unheard of 7 sacks against the Lions last week. The Bombers run game is 2nd best in the CFL in yards/game and without their starting MLB the Als will be in tough. Look for the Bombers and their varied passing and running attack to win and cover the touchdown. |
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07-01-23 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
The Marlins were on a five game winning streak before being rudely interrupted by the Braves. While the Braves have owned the Marlins in the past, I believe Miami will bounce back from Friday's miserable loss with a much better effort. The Braves have not yet faced Miami's secret weapon, Euly Perez. He hasn't allowed a run in three starts and had a 0.32 ERA. Is he due for a stumble? Even against the hard-hitting Braves, I don't think so. 39 year old veteran Charlie Morton, starts for the Braves. He has been a good dependable starter for the Braves, consistently delivering five innings, and allowing about three runs per start. The Braves have a solid bull pen at the moment. |
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06-29-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The 5-2 Dodgers are starting to hit better and are winning a few games. The Rockies are struggling at 3-7. The Rockies Anderson had a surprisingly strong May, but based on his track record, you had to believe that it wasn't going to last. Sure enough in his last two starts, he tumbled down the stairs, giving up 16 runs in 5+ innings. He has allowed 10 dingers this month, not a good look for a Rockies pitcher. The Colorado bullpen has been very poor (7.00 ERA) lately, so don't look for solace there. One thing the Dodgers can do is hit the long ball. They will start rookie Sheehan, who has started his career in a very positive way. It is a small sample size so far but we will see how he fares in Coors Field today. The Dodgers' bull pen is not the dominant one of old, but at leAst is better than the Rockies'. I'm wagering on Sheehan and the long ball today. Take the Dodgers to win on the run line at - i 1/2. |
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06-29-23 | Brewers +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
The Mets, just 7-17 in June, face the light-hitting Brewers for the series tie-breaker. With Scherzer on the mound, the Mets are a large favorite. Scherzer's last two starts have been vintage Max, but he has been uneven this season. Houser starts for the Brewers. he has started just two games in June, for a total, including relief efforts, of just 16 innings this month. While Houser hasn't pitched poorly, I still think that we can expect to see plenty of the Brewers' bullpen. Relief pitching has been their forte this season and especially lately. Neither team is hitting well, 25th and 26th in OPS in recent days. The Mets' bullpen is still struggling with an ERA over 5.00 of late. |
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06-27-23 | Twins v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 137 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
The probable starters for this one are both solid pitchers. Ryan for the Twins is coming off a complete game shutout, even though his two outings before that were pretty bad. He averages 6 IP/start this season, so against a hard hitting Braves lineup it should be 6 or less. If that’s the case his bullpen has not been great the last 10. On the mound for the Braves, probable starter Elder has been even more solid than Ryan. He pitched 7 shutout innings his last outing and gave up only 1 earned run in the start before that. His bullpen has been much stronger the last 10 games so when he gets pulled he will have that support. In their last 15 days of baseball the Braves lead the majors in avg. and OPS while the Twins are 22nd in both statistics over the same period. The Twins batters also have the 2nd worst strikeout rate in the majors. On top of that the Braves have average 8.66 R/9 vs. RHP this season while the Twins have averaged 4.01 R/9 against righties. In their last 7 the Braves have averaged 8.1 runs/game while the Twins have averaged 4.3 runs/game. Those two sets of stats alone easily make the spread. It seems pretty clear to pick the Braves to cover the spread. |
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06-25-23 | Toronto v. Edmonton Elks +6.5 | Top | 43-31 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Everyone is high on the Argos after their 2022 Grey Cup win and week 2 victory over the TigerCats. But they were not dominant, especially in the air. The Elks improved defence held powerhouse BC to 22 points and QB Harris and Saskatchewan’s passing attack to 17 points. They haven’t given up a rush TD yet and that is the only way the Argos got TDs in their first game. The Elks haven’t’ won at home in a long time but they are 8-2 in their L10 at home vs. the Argos and 7-3 overall in their L10 vs. the Argos. The Argos are missing their top 2 receivers for this game and their starting C Ciraco is a game time decision. Chad Kelly hasn’t proven himself yet; only one full game and relief in the Grey Cup last year. Everyone is focused on the struggles of Elks’ QB Cornelius. He hasn’t been impressive, that’s for sure but the Argos will be missing monster DL Oakman and LB Muamba so the Elks’ iffy O-line might have a bit of a chance to help Cornelius out a little more. 6.5 is a lot of points to give the Elks on this one. I think they have a good chance to make use of those points and keep it close. Pick the Elks on this one. |
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06-24-23 | Saskatchewan +3.5 v. Calgary | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
After years at or near the top the Stampeders were humbled last season and are still moving in a downward direction. Hard to believe they are favored over the Roughriders who had some bad luck with illness and injury last year. The brothers Dickenson are going to do battle with the Roughriders’, Craig in a much more precarious situation than Dave has been after years of success with the Stamps. This desperation has filtered down into Craig’s Roughriders who are playing like there is no tomorrow. With veteran QB Harris at the helm the Roughriders had passing success against the Bombers last week that even outstripped what BC did in their surprising domination of the Bombers this week. Meanwhile new starter Maier for the Stamps was humbled against BC and only had modest success against the lowly Redblacks last week. Roughriders’ all-stars Moncrief(LB) and Marshall(CB) return this week as do starters Hawkins(LT) and Kelly(OL). These upgrades to the O-line should allow Harris to do even more of his magic. Maier and the Stamps will be missing their top WR Begleton as well as top RB Carey and starting LT Coker is still out. As Maier still really hasn’t found his footing he could struggle. ATS the Stamps are 2-8 over the last 10 after a win and 7-20 in their last 27 home games. Hard to believe the Stamps are so heavily favored. Take the points on offer to the Roughriders as they should win going away. |
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06-22-23 | A's +1.5 v. Guardians | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -133 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
The A's and Guardians have played each other five times this season and four of those games were decided by one run. Neither team hits lefties especially well, and we will see a pair of young southpaws meeting up in Cleveland today. Sears is off a bit of a rougher start but has otherwise been very solid for the A's through May and June. In his last seven starts he has allowed more than two runs just the once while averaging over five innings a start. Cleveland's left hander Logan Allen started his rookie season very well but has struggled badly in his last two starts. His June ERA is an unimpressive 7.29. The bullpen was a weak spot for the A's but has been much better of late. The Guardians have very reliable relief pitching. The A's have lost seven in a row, but six of those again have been by one run. They have not been quite the pushovers they were for much of the season. Sears is likely the A's best chance for an outright win, and Allen's recent starts have been a concern. I am wagering on Oakland to at least keep this game close, although a victory would not surprise me. Take the A's +1 1/2. |
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06-20-23 | Cubs -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 4-0 | Win | 135 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Everything seems to be tilting towards the Cubs on this one. Stroman and the Cubs are on streaks and Oviedo and the Pirates are not. Stroman and the Cubs just beat Oviedo and the Pirates 7-2 on June 15th. Oviedo only lasted 4.1 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. The Cubs bullpen has an ERA of 3.00 in their last 10. The Pirates bullpen has been atrocious in their last 10 with an ERA of 9.51 and a WHIP of 2.01. At a club level the Cubs scored an average of 6.7 runs in their last 7 while the Pirates have struggled with only 2.7 runs/game. In their last 7 the Pirates have lost by an average of 4.86 runs. The Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 vs. the Pirates and 4-1 in their last 5 in Pittsburgh. Overall recently the Cubs are 7-3 while the Pirates are 2-8. All of these add up to an evening where the Cubs cover the spread and then some. |
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06-20-23 | Royals v. Tigers -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
Both of the probable starters, Lynch for the Royals and Lorenzen for the Tigers have had their struggles lately but Lynch has been really up against it. Royals are 0-6 in his last 6 road starts. His team is on a 1-4 slide while the Tigers are on a 4-1 streak. The Tigers have averaged 6 runs/9 against LHPs while the Royals have averaged only 3.51 runs/9 vs. RHP. If Lynch struggles early his bullpen has had a 4.71 ERA in their L10. The Tigers’ bullpen has had a 3.10 ERA. When it comes to hitting the Tigers have been hot lately with the 6th best OPS in their L7 while the Royals are mired down near the bottom of the majors. All this adds up to a bucketful of stats that have the Tigers better than 1.5 runs better than the Royals. These are reasons to expect the Tigers to cover the spread. |
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06-15-23 | White Sox +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
Cease has looked back to normal in his last two games, a relief for the White Sox. The Sox have also looked better, winning six of their last ten, although they have struggled recently. The Dodgers have slowed down in recent games, and are now below .500 L10. Grove (8.28 ERA) starts on Thursday. He has not impressed this season, giving up 8 ER in 9 innings in his last 2 starts. His ERA skyrockets after the third inning. An early exit is unlikely as the Dodgers' bullpen is struggling in recent games, not surprising considering their long list of pitchers on the IL. The White Sox bullpen has been excellent with an ERA of 2.25 L10 games. I expect the White Sox to show some offense against Grove. Take the underdog to win or at least keep it close on the road. |
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06-15-23 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
The Twins are at home to the 1-9 Tigers today. They have won four of five games, stand third in runs allowed, and have a fine starter on the mound. Sonny Gray has yet to give up more than three runs in thirteen starts this year. He is particularly tough at home (1.71 ERA) and has given up just one home run to date. Not that Detroit is know for the long ball. They are dead last in runs scored this year. They also have pitching woes, with a combined ERA of 5.94 in their last ten games. The Tigers lost both ends of a double header on Wednesday. Add in travel, and you have a very tired team. Today's Tigers starter lefty Matthew Boyd (5.55 ERA) has had a few good starts but most of them have been similar to his last one, giving up five runs over five innings. The Twins are heavily and legitimately favored. While not the hottest offense, they are a very good home team. I believe they will beat up a demoralized Tigers team today. Take Minnesota on the run line at -1 1/2. 9 stars! |
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06-15-23 | Rays v. A's +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
The A's are on an improbable 6-1 run, including taking two of three from the Rays. Of all their pitchers, Blackburn gives them the best opportunity to extend this streak. Since returning from the IL he has two of three quality starts, including a six inning shutout last time out. He will face Tj Bradley, who struggled to a 6.23 ERA in June. The RAys have a very long list of injured pitchers, and the A's, who are also getting fine relief pitching for the moment, have absolutely nothing to lose today. I am taking the A's to win or at least keep this one close. Take Oakland on the run line at +1 1/2. |
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06-14-23 | Brewers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 125 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Probable pitcher Ober is working on a solid season. His 2.61 ERA and .97 WHIP are well earned. He has been in some very low scoring pitching duels. 14 of his last 15 starts have been under totals. The Brewers probable pitcher Rea is a step below with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. 3 of his last 15 starts have seen him leave in the 3rd inning and 6 have been over totals. Reas’ bullpen has struggled over the last 10 games with a 6.25 ERA while the Twins’ bullpen has had an ERA of 2.93. At home the Twins’ bullpen has a 2.93 ERA while the Brewers’ bullpen has a 4.42 ERA on the road. All this leads to a lot of innings of higher scoring for the Twins. Expect them to win and cover the spread of -1.5. |
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06-13-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 161 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
Vegas are heavy favorites and deservedly so. Unless some unlikely magic happens this should be the end of the road for the scrappy Panthers. Bobrovsky has been shown to be mortal in this series with a 3.47 GA avg. and dismal .850 save %, while Hill has continued his run with a 2.25 GA avg and .920 save %. Hill has only allowed 2 goals/game in regulation in the entire finals. On the offensive side, Vegas has outscored Florida 12-4 at home when they have the last change and can dictate matchups against the Panthers’ inferior depth. This has been further enabled by Vegas’ 100% PK rate and their 33% PP rate in their last 5 playoff games. Vegas’ physical superiority has also been demonstrated as Panther players are struggling on the injury front as Duclair, Luostarinen and most notably Tkachuk are all struggling and questionable for game 5. And we can’t forget that Gudas is also in rough shape and was not very noticeable in game 4, Vegas is 7-0 in their last 7 at home against the Panthers. They also know how to close out a series as evidenced by their decisive 6-0 win to finish off Dallas, the 5-2 closeout against the Oilers and the 4-1 series ending win over Winnipeg. Notice the theme here. The Panthers will be even more dispirited than those three teams. The Knights should win this one by 2 or more goals which offers a healthy payout. |
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06-11-23 | Saskatchewan +2.5 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
These are the two with the lowest total for expected wins this season in the West. And rightfully so after they both struggled to get out of the basement all last season. The Elks haven’t won at home since 2019. They will finally win some but not this one. They made some big changes in the off season that will take a while to come together. Three new targets for QB Cornelius in MOP finalist Lewis and newcomers Moore and Dunbar should help him improve his numbers. RB Brown who came in part way through last season and was very effective will have a whole season to provide another option for Cornelius. The weak link in all of this is the O-line which made things difficult for their QB. Trying to sort things out with all his new receivers will be difficult under pressure The Roughriders also had O-line problems last season. The biggest difference is that their D-line has some emerging stars in Laniers and Robertson and newcomer Johnson and solid Dean at LB that will be able to better take advantage of the Elks weak O-line. The Roughriders also have veteran QB Harris who has come over from the Alouettes with teammate Wieneke as well as Walker from the Elks. They have a better chance of gelling quickly than the Elks passing game does. And the Roughriders also have the dynamic duo of Morrow and Hickson at RB that were very successful before going down with season ending injuries last season. Grab the points and look for the Roughriders to score the minor upset. |
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06-11-23 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks have won four straight, two against the Tigers, and all four on the road. Those last four wins have all been by four or more runs. Their ace is on the mound on Sunday. Gallen allowed more hits than usual against the Braves but he still held them to 2 ER. That is about average for the right-hander, on usually about six innings of work. The Tigers, now 1-9, haven't been getting many innings from their starters. Sunday's starter Wentz is one of the culprits, with most of his outings under five innings. He has given up almost a run an inning, too many the result of home runs. The Tigers have a very long list of injuries, most of them pitchers. They are last in runs-scored this season, and their bullpen has been overworked, and just average in effectiveness lately. The D-backs are a strong fifth in runs scored and hitting left-handed pitching at a .310 clip in their last ten games. Take Arizona on the run line at -1 1/2. 10*! |
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06-09-23 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg -5 | Top | 31-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
The Bombers have decided to run it back, keeping a veteran laden roster for another go at the Grey Cup. They have the least amount of changes in a league that has huge turnover year to year. This should be effective at least for the first few games of the season as they will all be on the same page. Only center Couture is gone from the O-line (although he was injured much of last year and replaced by this year’s starter Kolankowski). All the skill positions on offence have returned and on defense Bighill (MLB) and DEs Jeffcoat and Jefferson are back. This should bode well to start the season but lets check back on this in the Fall. Hamilton is a different story. They brought in declining QB Levi-Mitchell and star MLB Thurman from Calgary, star RB Butler from BC and DL Sayles from the Bombers to name a few newcomers. They will take awhile to gel. There is a good argument that Levi-Mitchell may not thrive. Behind one of the best CFL O-lines in history (by the metric of sacks allowed) and with the leading CFL rusher Careyin Calgary, he has declined precipitously over the last few seasons. In 2021 he threw for 8 yds/completion and a sad 10 TD/13 Int ratio. In 2022 it was a 9 TD/6 Int ratio where due to injuries and performance he ceded the starters’ role to Maier. His Hamilton O-line is not going to afford him the same luxury. This may not be pretty. Part of the T-Cats’ personnel turnover was not positive as they lost three all-star starters in the secondary. Winnipeg’s vaunted passing attack should excel. The Bombers’ home record was 8-1 in 2022 while the TiCats’ road record was 2-7. In their last 5 in June, against the spread the Bombers are 4-1. The TiCats are 1-4 against the spread vs. Winnipeg and 1-3-1 against the spread in Winnipeg. Clearly you should lay the points and go with the Bombers to beat the spread. |
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06-09-23 | Royals v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
The Orioles return home after an indifferent road trip. They are a very good home team this year, up against a Royals team that is just 9-21 in away games. Wells starts for the O's today. He has been solid more often than not, with a ton of strikeouts this season. He can be a victim of too many long balls, but is very sharp (2.45 ERA) at home this season. Lefty Daniel Lynch has appeared in just two games since returning from injury, and has looked just average so far. With one of the worst pens in the business, don't expect much support from the KC relievers today. The Royals' run differential is a very unhealthy 2.4/5.1 in their last seven games. They are a poor hitting team, especially so against right-handers. I expect a big day from Wells and the Orioles' top eight lineup today. Take Baltimore on the run line at -1 1/2. 9*! |
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06-08-23 | BC +3 v. Calgary | Top | 25-15 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
This rematch of last season’s West semi-final is a great way to start the season. Historically, the Stamps have a wide edge in games at McMahon Stadium but so many of those legends have moved on. Thurman and Orimolade are gone from the interior of a stout defense. From one of the most outstanding O-lines in recent history, left tackle Dennis is gone and his replacement Coker is on IR. Left guard Williams is also on IR so Jake Maier’s back is going to be vulnerable. Starter Jamerson from the secondary is also on IR. Rick Campbell and his savy staff will have taken notice. This will also be a new experience for QB Maier as he is the man this year and no longer the eager understudy. It will be a new kind of pressure. BC shut him down in the West semi-final. It will be interesting to see what adjustments are made. Vernon Adams will have to prove that he can continue to be a solid game manager and not just “Big Play V.A.” It looked that way last season as he threw for 6 TDs and only 1 interception in the six games he started and went 12 for 12 in preseason. His trio of 1000+ yard receivers, Rhymes, Whitehead and Hatcher (on IR for this game) are back. Cottoy, Hollins and McInnis are all superb options that will make up for Hatchers’ absence. B.C. is also missing an O-line starter as newcomer Schleuger is out. They are hopeful Couture (from the Bombers) can mesh with his old teammate Chungh on this years’ O-line. It is sort of traditional to go with the under for at least the first couple of games of the season as defences are ahead of the offences but both of these squads look ready to put up points; especially BC. That would be the easy play but the hot play is BC to cover the spread by winning the game. |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
You know the setup. The Nuggets won Game 1 and the Heat came back to win Game 2. The Heat may have stolen homecourt advantage but the Nuggets are still heavily favored to win the series. Most shops have them in the -275 range to do so. That means that they're expected to win at least one game at Miami. No time like the present to make that happen either. The only other time that the Nuggets were tied in a series was Game 5 against the Suns. Denver won by 16 and only trailed for 14 seconds of that entire game. The Nuggets are 3-0 straight-up and ATS their last three when tied in a series and they're 12-7-2 ATS when coming off an upset loss as favorite. The Heat are only 7-13 ATS when playing with 2 day's rest. Lay the small number with the Nuggets in Game 3. *Playoff GOY |
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06-03-23 | A's v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
The 6-4 Marlins, seventh in OPS over the last two weeks, are hitting pretty well for a change. The A's are in their usual spot; dead last with a .173 batting average and a .480 OPS in the last two weeks. Miami is a good home team and will look to take the second game of the series against the Hapless A's. Medina, the A's rookie (0-4, 6.83 ERA) hasn't pitched as poorly as his ERA would suggest, if it weren't for the long ball. He allowed three in his last start, and eight over 22 innings in May. He will square off against another rookie, the highly-touted Eury Perez, who has started the season very well. He shut out the Angels over five innings last time out. Opposing batters are hitting just .188 against him over his four starts. The Marlins bullpen has been uneven at times but very effective lately. The A's pen is the worst in the league. Take the favored Marlins on the run line today at -1 1/2. 10*! |
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06-01-23 | Brewers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 117 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
As predicted, the Brewers picked on one of the Jays' struggling starters yesterday. Today, I expect pay-back from Toronto. Peralta starts for Milwaukee, and his May results were very mixed. Two of his last three starts were outright poor, including a 2+ inning 10 run debacle last time out. He has struggled on the road this season as well. The Brewers aren't getting the same level of relief pitching we have grown accustomed to, with an ERA approaching 5.00 in the last ten games. Gausman has been super sharp in 9 of 11 starts. I am banking on another fine one today. The Jays' offense has been something of a disappointment this season, but their big bats look to be waking up, led by Bichette and Springer at the moment. They are hitting right-handers at a muscular .327 pace in their last 10 games. The Brew Crew are as usual struggling to score runs. Look for the Jays to take it to Milwaukee, especially early. |
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05-31-23 | Brewers +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Teheran, who we have seen very little of in the past couple of years, looked sharp in his return allowing a single run over five innings in his first start of the season. Manoah has not looked himself at all to date, and doesn't seem to be improving. He has an ugly 6.45 ERA in May, averaging barely over four innings a start, with equal K's and BB's this month. He has been particularly bad at home. The Blue Jays still haven't gelled as a team and are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. Both offense and relief pitching have been uneven. The Brewers, also 4-6, are as usual light-hitting, but aren't getting the pitching they usually have, including an average bullpen lately. The Jays are a medium favorite, but I am just not confident that Manoah's troubles are over yet. Look for a second strong outing from a voice from the past, and take the Brewers to at least keep this one close. Take Milwaukee +1 1/2. 9 stars! |
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05-27-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The Celtics have now done what only 14 teams previous to them have accomplished. That is to force a Game 6 after falling 0-3 in a playoff series. Now they seek to do what only three other teams have done after falling behind 0-3 - force a Game 7. (No team has ever come back to win the series after being down 0-3). Boston’s confidence has to be booming after the 110-97 win in Game 5. Basically, they led for double digits the entire game. Meanwhile, Miami’s confidence has to be waning. This was a Heat team that was really overachieving; they finished the regular season with a negative point differential and negative net efficiency. The Heat are 5-11 ATS this season following a double digit loss. Gabe Vincent (ankle) remains questionable for tonight and we know Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are already out. This team is running out of bodies and is really reliant on Jimmy Butler carrying the scoring load. Boston, on the other hand, had four 20+ point scorers in Game 5. They’ve shot 51% as a team the last two games including 40% from three. It’ll be difficult to maintain those percentages, but there is no denying which of these two teams has the deeper roster. The thing about Miami is they actually shot well in Game 5 and still ended up with only 97 points. All the momentum in this series has shifted and I’m laying the short number with the better team. 10* |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets +6 v. Lakers | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The Lakers (barely) covered the spread in both Games 1 and 2, but my view is that even at home in a desperate situation, they should not be laying this many points to the top-seeded Nuggets. Yes, LA did have the lead for most of Game 2 before succumbing late (but, again, still covering). However, they were largely dominated for most of Game 1 and did not deserve to get the cash in that game. I know Denver isn’t nearly the same team on the road as they are at home, but this is too many points considering their only three losses this postseason have been by a total of 18 points. LeBron James has been miserable from three in the playoffs (23.3%) including 0 for 10 in this series alone. The Lakers are not a good three-point shooting team, making it difficult to build/maintain the kind of lead they need to cover this number. Also, Reaves and Hachimura are due for some regression. Unless Anthony Davis steps up in a major way, I don’t see how the Lakers win this game, let alone cover. 10* |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Might as well start by pointing out that teams who lose Game 1 at home are 21-1 straight up and 20-2 ATS in Game 2 going back to 2019. Boston fits that profile tonight, so I’ll be laying the points. The Celtics were in this exact same situation in the last round. They dropped Game 1 to Philadelphia, 119-115 as a 10.5-point favorite. They immediately bounced back, winning Game 2 121-87, laying a similar number. The trend mentioned above is a perfect 7-0 SU this season, five of those wins coming by 14 points or greater. I can’t see Miami shooting 51% from three again nor do I see them shooting 54% overall from the field. The Heat have “stolen” Game 1 on the road in all three series this postseason. But they are 0-2 thus far in Game 2’s, losing at Milwaukee by 16 and New York by 6. The Celtics are 20-10 SU off a loss and should win big tonight. 10* |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
For most of the 48 minutes in Game 1, Denver clearly looked like the better team. But the Nuggets did not cover the closing number, either pushing or failing to cover depending on your shop. I fully anticipate they will cover the spread here in Game 2. Both teams shot nearly 55% from the floor in Game 1 and roughly 46% from three. Playing on the road, it is the Lakers that are more likely to experience offensive regression in Game 2. This is a team that shoots the three at only 34.5% for the year. Denver is shooting 51% for the year here at home. The Nuggets are also typically much better at the defensive end at home. In Game 1, they gave up 72 points in the second half. This is a team that came into the WCF ranked #2 in the league, allowing just over 108 points/game on its home court. Not only do I not see Anthony Davis scoring another 40 for LA, Austin Reaves (23 points) and Rui Hachimura (17) won’t match their Game 1 scoring either. The Lakers are 2-9 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 130 or more points. Denver is 41-7 SU at home, winning by an average of 10.3 points per game. |
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05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
Going back to last Saturday, NBA home teams are 12-2 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread. The only two SU losses both came in this series, the last two games where Philadelphia won Game 5 in Boston and then the Celtics returned the favor at Philly in Game 6. I look for “order” to be restored in Game 7, however. What a brutal loss for the 76ers Thursday as they shot 36.1% overall from the field including 8 of 34 (23.5%) from three. I had the Under, so I was happy with the final score being 95-86. The Celtics being +21 from beyond the three-point line was huge in Game 6. Since Game 1, there hasn’t been a game in the series where they were outscored from three. 76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers has blown three 3-1 series leads in his career. This would be “just” 3-2, but I have little confidence in Doc. He has lost NINE Game 7’s, by far the most of any coach in history. Home teams also win Game 7 at a very high percentage. The Celtics won Game 6 despite Jayson Tatum missing 14 of his first 15 shot attempts. You’ve got to figure he’ll shoot much better at home Sunday. Boston is the better team. 10* |
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05-12-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 92-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Knicks staved off elimination once, now let’s see if they can do it again Friday on the road. They obviously come into Miami as underdogs, but that’s okay considering the Heat’s somewhat lousy 22-37-2 ATS mark as favorites this season. I’m taking the points in Game 6 tonight. It was just a three-point lead at halftime for the Knicks in Game 5 as they got off to a really slow start (just 14 pts in the 1Q). From there, they took control in the second half, going up by as many as 19 before Miami made a late push. The trio of Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle once again carried the scoring load (88 combined points) with Brunson’s 38 leading the way. The Knicks also shot much better than normal from three (38.2%), at least by this series’ standard. I don’t necessarily expect NY to shoot as well from three tonight. But I also don’t expect them to fall into an early hole like they did in the last game. Playing for their season, you know you’re getting their best effort for 48 minutes. I also have my doubts about Miami, who isn’t capable of scoring a ton without Jimmy Butler going off. The Heat are only shooting 43% from the field in this series and 31% from three. I’m not exactly sure why this spread is larger than both Games 3 and 4 at home. Going back to the start of the series against Cleveland, the Knicks are allowing just 100.1 points/game. Given that points figure to be at a premium again tonight, I want to be on the dog. 8* |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -3 | Top | 125-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The Suns need to win Game 6 to stay alive and I think they will, with room to spare, so I’m laying the points. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have both been other-worldly in this series, combining to average 65 points/game. The thing is they need help. Last home game they got help from Landry Shamet, who scored 19 thanks to making five threes. Whether it’s Shamet or someone else on this Suns’ roster, expect someone to “lend a helping hand” at home tonight. Denver is 40-7 SU at home, but they are sub-.500 on the road with the scoring differential going from +10.3 at home to -3.0 on the road. So that’s why there’s such a drastic change in the spread from the last game to this one. In the two previous home games in this series, Phoenix averaged 125 points on 53% shooting. Denver is simply not the same team defensively on the road as they are at home. At home and trailing in the series, the Suns are a perfect 3 for 3 ATS. 10* |
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05-10-23 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The see-saw nature of the Oilers/Knights series continued with Vegas stymying the Oilers in Edmonton, allowing just a single goal. Vegas is a very tough out in away games, and they held the Oilers power play to no goals, while limiting penalties. Adin Hill replaced Broissoit, and was perfect in game three as he was in the third period of game two. Skinner was sub-par in game three. In spite of his fine performance in the previous game, the Oilers have to be wondering about their young goal tender, who has now started 12 straight games. There is no doubt that the Oilers will be all in tonight, but superior net-minding and their solid defensive road style should at least keep the Knight close in this one. Take Vegas on the puck line at +1 1/2. 10* |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Golden State’s season is on the line tonight after blowing a double digit lead on the road in Game 4. They led the Lakers by as many as 12 in the second half, but a second straight uncharacteristically poor performance at the offensive end doomed them. In the two games down in LA, the Warriors shot below 30% from three. Steph Curry was only 3 of 14 on 3PA in Game 4. Now back home, you’ve got to expect a better showing at the offensive end from Curry and his teammates. After all, they are 36-10 straight up and 30-16 ATS at the Chase Center in 2022-23. But much of the reason the Warriors are so much better at home than on the road is because of their defense. They are basically allowing 10 fewer points/game at home compared to the road. The Lakers are not an efficient team offensively and have shot worse than 30% from three in all but three playoff games. After back to back road losses in Sacramento in the first round, the Warriors responded with a 17-point win here at home. Up 3-1 in the first round vs. Memphis, the Lakers lost Game 5 (on the road) by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. 10* |
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05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Knicks got strong performances out of Julius Randle (20 points), Jalen Brunson (32) and R.J. Barrett (24) in Game 4, but the rest of the team combined to score only 25 points and as a result, they are down 3-1 in this best of seven series. But the good news is that Game 5 is at Madison Square Garden. Last time here, the Knicks won 111-105 and shot 40% from three. The other three games have seen dreadful three-point shooting from NY. My hope here is that we’ll see a shooting effort along the lines of Game 2. I also don’t think the Knicks will be outrebounded the way they were in the two games at Miami. In the regular season, New York was the #2 rebounding team in the entire NBA. Defensively, the Knicks have little to worry about. They’ve given up an average of just 99.7 points/game this postseason, which is pretty remarkable in 2023. Miami hasn’t exactly shot the lights out in this series either, though Jimmy Butler has carried the load offensively. I’m not really a believer in this Heat team, which is an 8-seed and was on the verge of losing to Chicago in the play-in tournament. They had a negative point differential and net efficiency in the regular season. Them making a Conference Final (would be first 8-seed to do so since 1999) would be rather shocking to me. 10* |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Phoenix has come back to tie this series up 2-2, but they have needed herculean efforts from both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, plus a breakout effort from Landry Shamet in Game 4. Durant and Booker have combined for a ridiculous 273 points in this series with Booker shooting 66.7% from three and 34 of 43 overall the last two games. Shamet’s breakthrough in Game 4 came out of nowhere (he’d scored just 14 points total this postseason, previously!) I just can’t see Durant and Booker continuing that pace, Booker specifically, and the Suns’ role players are unlikely to contribute much with the series moving back to Denver. At home, the Nuggets are allowing just 108.5 points/game for the year, second best in the league. They are simply a much better team at home where they’ve gone 39-7 SU (+10.2 PPG) as opposed to 20-25 SU (-3.0 PPG) on the road. Nikola Jokic (53 points in Game 4) won’t be suspended, so he’s a go. It’s also time for someone on the Nuggets other than Jokic or Jamal Murray to step up. Similar to Shamet for Phoenix in the last game, I expect someone will. Certainly, Denver will get more than 11 bench points tonight. Lay the points. 10* |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | Top | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The last two games of this series have both been blowouts, each team winning at home. The Warriors now look to bounce back in Game 4 and even the series at two games apiece. I like the defending champs plus the points. It was a horrible shooting night for Golden State in Game 3 as they made only 39.6% from the field and 29.5% from three. They were also -20 in FT attempts. Meanwhile, the Lakers shot 52.5% from three and were an uncharacteristic 48.4% from three. I say “uncharacteristic” because six of the previous seven games saw LA shoot worse than 30% from three. Anthony Davis had 25 points last game, 11 of those coming from the charity stripe. Davis has yet to have back to back games this postseason with 20+ points. I know that Golden State has generally been terrible on the road this year, but they have won at least one road game in every series since Steve Kerr took over, including two in Sacramento last round. This is a team known for bouncing back from a bad loss. 10* |
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05-08-23 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Man, was Marlins lefty Garrett roughed up in his last game, especially after a good start to his season. 11 runs, and4 HR allowed in 4+ innings has got to rattle a young pitcher's confidence. He hasn't pitched for length, which could be a problem today. While the Marlins usually have a strong bullpen, a 14 inning game yesterday and a bullpen day on Saturday will leave the pen seriously short-staffed. Arizona starter Zac Gallen has hit his stride. After a poor opening day, he has been tough to beat, with an impressive 57-5 K/BB ratio and a tiny .84 WHIP. The Diamondbacks have impressed on offense and are ranked 6th in the league at the moment. Their weak spot has been their bullpen, but Gallen will likely give them length as a starter. The Marlins are again a light hitting team, ranked dead last in Runs/9. After that fourteen inning game and travel time, they could be a little weary. Take the D-backs on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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05-06-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 97-127 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Golden State tied this series up with a convincing 127-100 victory in Game 2, shooting 50% overall and from three. But now they’re on the road - where they simply have not been the same team in 2022-23. The Warriors are 13-32 straight up and 14-30-1 ATS on the road this season. However, they have won their last two road games, both at Sacramento. My big concern with the Lakers is that they simply do not shoot the three well enough to stay with Golden State. In six of their eight playoff games thus far, LA has shot worse than 30 percent from behind the arc. Also, as I’m sure you’ve heard, the Warriors have won at least one road game in every playoff series under Steve Kerr. The Dubs flat out looked like the better team in Game 2 and I see no reason why we shouldn't take them as underdogs here in Game 3. 10* |