Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -3 | Top | 92-130 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Dallas just beat Memphis 104-91 for its 12th win in 14 games. So they are likely feeling good about themselves heading to Golden State. The Mavericks have never lost in the Warriors’ “new building.” They are 3-0 SU/ATS all-time at the Chase Center. Every win has come by at least 20 points. Golden State, meanwhile, seems to be reeling a bit even though they’ve posted back to back wins. But the two wins were each by just two points and they did not cover the spread in either game. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Poor shooting, especially from Steph Curry, has plagued the Warriors a bit recently. Curry is averaging only 20.1 points while shooting 27.6% from three the L10 games. Over the last 14 games, the team has failed to reach 100 points a total of seven times. But even though Dallas has been dialed in defensively, I believe that Golden State will break out of its “slump” tonight at home, on TNT. The Warriors are still averaging 111.9 points at home. They also remain better than the Mavericks at the defensive end. Golden State is #1 in the league in scoring defense and gives up just 99.3 points per game at home. This is a short number for them and I say lay it. |
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01-25-22 | Siena v. Iona -15.5 | Top | 57-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
In their last 19 visits, Siena is a fascinating 17-2 ATS when playing at Iona. But tonight should go differently in the MAAC. After almost a full month off (COVID cancellations), Siena will be playing its third straight road game on Tuesday. They lost the last one, 75-68 at Manhattan. Iona is clearly the best team in the conference this year, at 16-3 overall and 8-0 vs. other MAAC teams. Iona is a big favorite, but that’s not without justification. The Gaels are riding a five-game win streak and their only loss since the beginning of December came by a single point at St. Louis. This is a good team we’re backing today. They are coming off a 15-point win as 8.5 point favorites, on the road, over Quinnipiac Saturday. Iona hasn’t lost a home game this year, even though they are only shooting 30.4% from three. Their success can be attributed to their FG% defense. Opponents shoot just 39.5% at Iona, including 25.3% from three. Look for Iona, who averages 78.9 points at home, to shoot better from three tonight. Siena is outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Even worse is that the Saints rank outside the top 300 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Iona ranks in the top 81 nationally at both ends. This long-standing rivalry between the two upstate New York schools has seen Siena cash more often than not, at least when they’re on the road. But tonight will be different. Lay the points with Iona. |
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01-24-22 | Idaho v. Portland State -8 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Playing against a bad team that’s coming off a rare win always seems to be a good idea and that’s what I’m doing here with Idaho. The Vandals won 73-72 on Saturday, beating Sacramento State. It was their first win since before Christmas when they beat a team named “SAGU American Indian College.” Idaho needed overtime to get that win Saturday. They gave up 42 points in the second half, which was the most points scored by Sacramento State in any half this season. The win was at home. On the road, Idaho is 0-9. They’ve lost 30 of 33 road games the last three years. Portland State’s only win since Christmas also came against Sacramento State. But that was back on 1/15. Since then, the Vikings have lost three in a row. They know tonight is their best chance at a win in some time. This will also be PSU’s third straight home game. Next they’ve got Southern Utah, who is one of the better Big Sky teams. The fact the Vikings keep visiting teams to 62 points/game (on 38% shooting) tells me they can win this one rather comfortably, so lay the points. |
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01-24-22 | Mississippi Valley State v. Southern -18.5 | Top | 72-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Miss Valley State is as bad as any College Basketball team in the country. They have just one win this season and it came by two points, in overtime, against a Prairie View A&M squad that also happens to be rated among the nation’s very worst. Since that lone win, the Delta Devils have been blown out by Texas Southern and been rather competitive in three other defeats. Tonight’s game is likely to go poorly for them. Southern U is coming off a 48-point win on Saturday where they almost scored 100 points (99). They shot 56.5% and held Ark-Pine Bluff to 31.4%. The win was the Jaguars’ seventh in the last nine games. The two losses both came on the road and one was at Dayton. Southern has only played five games at home this season. They’re 5-0 and winning by almost 30 points/game. I look for a win of a similar margin here tonight. The last two times they faced MVSU, the game was at home and the margins of victory were 33 and 41 points. On the road, MVSU is getting beat by 28.5 points/game. Not only is Southern 12-4 ATS in all of its lined games this season, they are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games. Should be an easy one for them on Monday, so be sure to lay the points. |
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01-23-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Wizards | Top | 116-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
I like this play quite a bit. Looking at the standings, Washington is 9th and Boston is 10th. Neither has played all that well of late. Boston has dropped two in a row, both as a favorite, while Washington is 1-8 ATS its last nine games. The Wizards have also lost two straight as a favorite. But what sticks out here is that the Celtics have a better point differential. They are better defensively than the Wizards. Looking at all the realistic playoff contenders in the East, the Wiz have the worst point differential. Boston lost twice to Washington early in the year. In the second game, they sank only 2 of 26 three-point attempts. That’s very bad and also unlikely to repeat itself. Speaking of bad three-point shooting, leading scorer Jayson Tatum has missed his last 20 3PA. This is a player that ranks 10th in the NBA at 25.2 points per game. I believe the Celtics are due to make a lot of threes in this game. If nothing else, the law of averages is in their favor. Going back to January 4th, the Wizards have beaten only one team that wasn’t Orlando or Oklahoma City. Go with the better team on Sunday. TAKE BOSTON |
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01-23-22 | Xavier v. Marquette +2.5 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Red hot Marquette hosts #20 Xavier here. The Golden Eagles have won five in a row and covered the spread every time. They are fresh off an upset of #11 Villanova earlier this week. It was their third straight win over a ranked opponent. This Marquette team has balance with four players averaging at least 11 points. During the win streak, the Golden Eagles are averaging 79.4 points and giving up only 64.4. Xavier’s last five games, which includes two losses, have been much tighter. The Musketeers are averaging only 70.6 points and giving up 69.4. The revenge angle is in play here as Xavier beat Marquette back in December, 80-71. But Marquette is obviously playing much better now. They held Providence and Villanova both under 60 points. Beating ‘Nova was really impressive. Marquette was the first road team to win there since 2018. So at home, I like the Golden Eagles to handle their business. Xavier has lost twice to Villanova recently and they were a bit lucky to stave off what was almost another loss on Thursday. They were down 10 in the second half to a DePaul team that was playing without its leading scorer. The Musketeers ended up winning by only one point, 68-67. It was the fifth time they failed to cover in the last six games. TAKE THE POINTS |
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01-22-22 | New Mexico v. Wyoming -10 | Top | 91-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Wyoming has had a couple close calls over its current five-game win streak. But both of those were not at home. In Laramie, the Cowboys are 7-0 with a +26.9 scoring average. I’m surprised they’re not favored by more here, especially with New Mexico on a five game losing streak. Perhaps the line is shorter than expected because New Mexico is 11-5-1 ATS. Wednesday was the fifth time they’ve covered in the last six games. But this is a situation where the Lobos are simply overmatched. The oddsmakers were a bit too generous in giving them 16 points at Colorado State. But that game saw New Mexico shoot better than expected and make 14 threes. Don’t think they’ll do that again. Wyoming is excellent defensively as it is allowing less than 40 percent shooting for the year. The Cowboys just won by 15 on Wednesday against San Jose State, keeping their perfect conference record intact. Four minutes into the game, they took the lead and never relinquished it. New Mexico allowing 83.4 points on the road is a problem, for them at least. Wyoming’s only two losses this year were to Pac 12 teams, one of which was Arizona. The home team is just way better. Lay the points with WYOMING |
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01-22-22 | Coppin State v. Norfolk State -6 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Both Coppin State and Norfolk State are on 3-0 ATS win streaks entering Saturday. But the similarities end there. Norfolk State has simply been the better team all year. They have an 11-4 straight up record on the season while Coppin State has won only three games straight up all year. Norfolk State has also won all three of the games it has covered in a row. The last one was a 14-point victory at MD-Eastern Shore. That game saw the Spartans pull away in the second half. After playing so many games on the road the last two months, Norfolk State will be glad to be back home. They’ve won all four games on their home court and done so by an average of 36 points per contest! Coppin State was a small underdog in recent wins over South Carolina State and Morgan State. Before those wins, the Eagles had lost nine in a row. Last Saturday’s win came on a buzzer beater from beyond halfcourt. Coppin State trailed by 10 at halftime against Morgan State. So had it not been for the buzzer beater, we’d be talking about a team that had lost 10 of 11. Like Norfolk, Coppin State has played most of its games on the road. Problem is they are 2-13 away from home, those two wins coming each of the last two Saturdays. Can’t see them making it three in a row. Norfolk State is the best team in the MEAC and should win handily. Play on NORFOLK STATE |
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01-22-22 | Northern Colorado v. Eastern Washington +1 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
In what could end up being a high scoring game, I like Eastern Washington to win at home. It’s difficult for me to see Northern Colorado being able to shoot the ball as well as they did Thursday at Idaho. The Bears made 57.1% of their field goal attempts, including 47.4% from three, on their way to an 87-70 win. It also helped that NCO saw Idaho make only 3 of its 16 three-point attempts. The wide disparity in three-point shooting basically dictated that game’s outcome. While NCO is a good three-point shooting team, they face an EWU team that is keeping its opponents right around 30% for the year from distance. Eastern Washington has gotten to play just six home games and three have been since the New Year. They’ve won two in a row, besting Idaho 96-93 and then Sacramento State 75-62 on Thursday. Normally, the Eagles are very good in Cheney. Their home record the last three seasons is 24-6. So getting the home team at this price seems ideal. They are on an 18-5 ATS run when playing with just one day of rest between games. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON |
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01-21-22 | Toledo v. Ohio -4 | Top | 87-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
The two hottest teams from the MAC will hook up tonight in Athens, Ohio has won nine straight games and is 14-2 on the season. Toledo carries a five-game win streak into this game and they have also covered the spread in each of those five victories. Ohio hasn’t lost at home this year. The Bobcats are 8-0 in Athens and winning by 11.4 points per contest. Their only two losses this year came against Kentucky and LSU! This is a good basketball team. Not saying Toledo isn’t any good, but the fact they are on the road places the Rockets at a slight disadvantage. All four of their losses this year have come away from home. In the last two road games, UT gave up 72 and 78 points. Ohio has been a covering machine in the MAC the past three seasons. They are 27-13 ATS. The last time they faced Toledo was the MAC Tournament in March and the Bobcats won that game. They’d make the NCAA Tournament and pull a first round upset over Virginia. Four starters are back from that NCAA Tournament squad and the Bobcats remain the favorites to win the league this year. Each of their last four home wins have come by at least seven points. Lay the points with OHIO |
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01-20-22 | Eastern Illinois v. Murray State -27 | Top | 51-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Earlier this month, Murray State made news by announcing it would be joining the Missouri Valley Conference in July. But that’s the future. Here in the present, the Racers are dominating their current conference (Ohio Valley) with a 5-0 record. They are 15-2 overall on the season. That dominance should - pretty clearly - continue tonight when Murray State hosts Eastern Illinois. The Racers are - justifiably - big favorites here. They’ve won their eight home games by an average of almost 28 points. Then you’ve got Eastern Illinois, who is 2-14 overall and hasn’t won a single road game. EIU will not be sad to see Murray State leave the OVC. Three days ago, at home, they lost 72-46 to the Racers at home. So it’s a quick rematch and obviously there’s no reason to think that things will go any better here for the underdog. Eastern Illinois is just 14-28 ATS in conference play the last three seasons. They are putting up only 50.7 points per game away from home. Murray State has covered 10 of the last 13 times it has been a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. This is a large spread, but for good reason. Lay it! |
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01-20-22 | Winthrop -3.5 v. Presbyterian | Top | 60-58 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Winthrop has a perfect 3-0 straight up record in the Big South, but the Eagles have been unable to cash any tickets as favorites this year. They are 0-7 ATS in the chalk role and have not covered any of the last five games. But I look for that to change on Thursday. Winthrop takes on a struggling Presbyterian side tonight. It’s a road game, but Presbyterian isn’t a team to be feared. In their last home game, they lost 82-72 as an eight point favorite. As conference foes, these teams meet twice every year. It’s an interesting pattern the previous two years. Winthrop won all four games, but failed to cover the spread every time. That plays a bit into the recent form of the Eagles winning, but not covering. However, what I find interesting is that they were double digit favorites each of those last four games against Presbyterian. Here, it’s a relatively short number and I’m seeing value on the road team. Presbyterian has lost eight straight games against Division I opponents. Since the beginning of December, the only three teams that the Blue Hose have beaten are: Bob Jones U, Carver Bible and Truett-McConnell. I’m not making those schools up. Lay the points with WINTHROP |
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01-19-22 | Thunder v. Spurs -6 | Top | 96-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
San Antonio’s quest to make it back to .500, or at the very least get back in the top 10 in the West, requires that they win games like this. Tonight they host Oklahoma City, unquestionably one of the four worst teams in the league. The Thunder have been covering at a high rate this year, as they are always underdogs. But they’ve got just one win in the last eight games. Truthfully, the Spurs haven’t been much better, with just two wins in their last 12 games. But they led Phoenix in the fourth quarter, here at home, the other night. I just have a “feeling” this is the game where SA “puts it all together.” OKC was down 22 Monday in Dallas. That they were able to close the gap to two when the final buzzer sounded is a little bit misleading. The Spurs have covered four straight times following a double digit loss at home. Take them minus the points here. |
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01-19-22 | Wolves v. Hawks -2 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Minnesota played last night, so this is a good chance for Atlanta to pick up a much needed victory. The Hawks are 18-25 right now. This is a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. The Timberwolves haven’t exactly been “playoff regulars,” so they’ve got to be thrilled to be seventh in the West. They picked up a win last night, 112-110, but did not cover as three-point favorites. I picked up a win with the Over. Minnesota is still a “young” team, so I see them as being prone to a “letdown” this evening. The last time they were off a win and playing with no rest, they scored 88 points and lost to the Knicks. That was at home. It’s a losing road record for the Timberwolves this season. I can’t stress how desperate the Hawks will be for a win here. They are coming off a win, against Milwaukee, so you know what they’re capable of doing. They won at Minnesota last month. Lay the short number with the HAWKS |
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01-18-22 | Loyola-Chicago -12 v. Evansville | Top | 77-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Loyola Chicago should be a familiar name to those who follow the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers have made two deep Tourney runs in the last four years, one of them all the way to the Final Four (in 2018). Currently on a nine-game win streak, they are back in the Top 25 as of yesterday (ranked #22). Expect an easy win on Tuesday. Evansville is a bad team with a 4-11 record. The Purple Aces hadn’t played in almost a month when it was time for the Missouri Valley Conference portion of the schedule to go into full effect. They’ve lost all three games in January, two by 22 or more. Loyola is clearly the best Missouri Valley team this year, although they’ve had some close calls. Two of their four league wins have required overtime. But this one is looking like the easiest matchup yet. Saturday saw Loyola hold Indiana State to 56 points. Evansville is only averaging 60.5 points this season. So it should be another solid effort at the defensive end from the favorite here. The past two years have seen Loyola win all four head to head meetings. Three of the wins have been by double digits. Lay the points with LOYOLA CHICAGO |
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01-18-22 | Western Michigan v. Akron -14 | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Akron, who is one of the top teams in the MAC, has hit a recent snag. They’ve lost two of three and are just 9-5 on the year. But tonight they host a Western Michigan team that is on a six-game losing streak. Expect this to be an easy cover by the home team. The Zips lost 67-55 at rival Kent State on Friday. In addition to falling victim to a career night from Kent State’s Sincere Carry, the Zips were terrible at shooting from long range. They made only 4 of 24 three point attempts. But for the year, they’ve shot well from distance. At home they are making 37.4% of three-point attempts and that’s a big reason why they are putting up 82.4 points per game at the James A. Rhodes Arena. With Western Michigan giving up 86.1 points per game on the road this year, tonight should be an excellent showing at the offensive end from Akron. WMU has scored more than 64 points only once during its six-game losing streak. They never seem to do well in games where the total is 130 to 139.5. They are 5-17 ATS in such games the last three seasons, 0-6 when on the road. This is a game Akron should win by 20 or more points. Western Michigan is getting outscored by 21.1 points per game on the road. Lay the points with AKRON |
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01-17-22 | Thunder v. Mavs -11.5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Save for one bad game at Madison Square Garden last week, the Mavericks have been tearing it up of late. They come into Monday having won eight of their last nine games. On Friday, they ended the long win streak of the Memphis Grizzlies with an emphatic 112-85 beatdown. That was followed by another double digit victory, 108-92 over Orlando on Saturday. This should be a third straight double digit victory for the Mavs as they host Oklahoma City on Monday. While the Thunder have been more competitive than expected so far, they don’t win games. Saturday marked their eighth loss in the last 10 tries. They blew a double digit lead at home against Cleveland and ended up going down 107-102. The key to the Mavericks’ recent success has been their defense. They’ve led the league in defensive efficiency over the last three weeks - by a rather wide margin, in fact. Oklahoma City, despite averaging 116 points in its last three games, is still last in the league at 100.8 points per game. This is the third meeting of the year between these teams. In the first two, both of which were played in OKC, the Mavs held the Thunder to 84 and 86 points. Should be another easy win here. Lay the points. |
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01-17-22 | Lamar v. Stephen F Austin -14.5 | Top | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Over the weekend, SF Austin suffered its second loss in the last three games. It was 49-41 at Sam Houston State. As you can tell from that score, it was a bad shooting night. The Lumberjacks made only 26.3% of their field goal attempts and were 3 of 25 from three-point range. It was also the third straight ATS loss for the Lumberjacks, who are trying to make their presence felt in the WAC, their new conference home after a move from the Southland. Tonight should be a “get-well” game for SF Austin as they face one of their old Southland rivals, Lamar, who is having an absolutely terrible season. Lamar comes into Monday with a 2-14 SU record. Both wins were against non-DI opponents. The Cardinals just got beat by Chicago State, who is a horrible team, on Saturday. They were actually eight-point favorites in that game, playing at home. On the road, Lamar hasn’t won a game. They are 0-10. While Lamar has been somewhat competitive this year, that won’t be the case tonight. SF Austin should be in a foul mood and ready to dominate one of the easiest opponents on their remaining schedule. LAY THE POINTS |
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01-16-22 | Jazz -4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Utah, who has slipped to fourth in the West, could really use a win here. They’ve lost four in a row despite being favored in their last three games. Even more surprising is that all four Jazz losses have been by double digits. This has been their worst stretch of the season. But tonight sees them returning to the site of their last win, which came on January 5th, 115-109 in Denver. At that moment in time, the Jazz had won eight of nine. The Nuggets are in the second game of a back to back and playing their third game in four days. The last two have gone well for them. Not only did the blowout Portland 140-108, they did the same to the Lakers last night, winning 133-96. But it’s probably not possible for Denver to match last night’s shooting where they were 23 of 40 from three. Depth looks like it will be an issue tonight with JaMychal Green entering health and safety protocol and Austin Rivers out with a non-COVID illness. Utah is too good to continue losing like this. I still think they’re one of the top teams. Lay the points! |
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01-16-22 | Iowa v. Minnesota +6 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Iowa is a team that can score. They are fourth in the country in scoring at 86.5 points per game. But they don’t defend particularly well. That’s evident by the fact that they are 160th in adjusted defensive efficiency and also them giving up an average of 77.2 points per game when they play on the road. That defensive efficiency rating of theirs really sticks out. It’s the poorest mark - by far - of any team in the KenPom top 40. So I really like the idea of grabbing the points here, with Iowa being on the road. The Hawkeyes were a bit lucky to pull one out in Iowa City earlier this week. They rallied from a 48-41 halftime deficit to beat Indiana 83-74. But again, that was a home game. Let it be known that Iowa’s last three true road games all ended up as losses. Minnesota comes into Sunday as a desperate team. They’re on a three-game losing streak after falling in the final second to Michigan State on Wednesday. It was still a valiant effort as double digit underdogs against a team ranked 10th in the country. Bottom line: I just think that the Golden Gophers will score enough to stay within a generous number at home. Grab the points. |
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01-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -13.5 | Top | 61-54 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
#1 Baylor looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday. I expect this game to go quite well for the top ranked Bears. They led Texas Tech by 15 in the first half before suffering their first loss since last year’s Big 12 Tournament. The reigning National Champs had won 22 in a row by an average of 26 points. Oklahoma State is also off a loss to Texas Tech, though theirs came in more lopsided fashion. It was 78-58 down in Lubbock on Thursday. This is a trying season for the Cowboys, who are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. Baylor has had two more days to prepare for this game, an advantage they don’t really need but will gladly take. This is OSU’s third road game in five days and they have failed to cover eight of their last nine overall. Look for the best team in the country to come out with some real energy after suffering their first loss of the year. That should result in a big win. Play on BAYLOR |
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01-15-22 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 79-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
There’s a top five in the SEC pecking order with Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee and Alabama all vying for conference supremacy. Two of the five teams go head to head on Saturday as #18 Kentucky faces #22 Tennessee in Lexington Saturday afternoon. UT has split its first four SEC games, winning twice at home and losing both times on the road. That pattern doesn’t bode well for today. The teams the Volunteers lost at: were Alabama and LSU. Kentucky is 11-0 at Rupp Arena so far, winning by 27.5 points per contest. The Wildcats’ only SEC loss came at LSU. They never trailed Tuesday in a 78-66 win over Vanderbilt. In that game, Oscar Tshiebwe turned in his 12th double double of the season and a career-high 30 points. UK led by as many as 28 before taking their foot off the gas near the end of the game. Kentucky seems to have a major edge at the offensive end where they are eighth in the country in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee is only 58th. Versus teams that average 77 or more points per game, the Vols are 5-14 ATS the previous three seasons. Because they’re playing at home, Kentucky has a significant advantage. Lay the points here. |
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01-14-22 | Cavs v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
San Antonio is desperate for a win here. They lost at home to the Rockets on Wednesday. That was their fourth straight loss as well as their eighth in the last nine games. The only win was by the slightest of margins (99-97) over Boston. Cleveland is no longer a pushover as it proved again on Wednesday when they went to Utah and smashed the Jazz 111-91, despite being a five-point underdog. The Cavs shockingly own the top point differential in the Eastern Conference. But their ATS record has slipped a bit this month. They’ve covered just two of the last nine games, Wednesday being one of them. Oddsmakers are going to start catching up with the Cavaliers and this is an instance where I don’t think they should be favored. Two starters could be returning tonight for the Spurs. That would greatly aid the likes of Dejounte Murray, who had a triple double in the last game. Murray was backed up by six teammates scoring 11 or more points. I really don’t know how San Antonio managed to lose to Houston. They were up nine in the third quarter. An interesting tidbit on the Spurs: their home record is 7-11, but they have scored more points than they’ve allowed in those games. They average 115.6 PPG here. Take SAN ANTONIO |
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01-14-22 | VCU v. St Bonaventure -2 | Top | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
Virginia Commonwealth and St. Bonaventure may have similar straight up records (10-3 and 9-4 respectively), but it’s a much different story at the pay window as VCU is 10-4 ATS (7-0 on the road) while the Bonnies are 3-8 ATS and have failed to cover seven in a row. But what I’m looking for Friday is a reversal of fortunes. The Bonnies had not played in almost a month (four cancellations/postponements) when they took the floor against LaSalle on Tuesday. They won 80-76, but could not cover the 9.5 point spread on the road as the game went to overtime. I’m going to “excuse” that close call, based on how long it had been since the Bonnies had last played. With a game under their belt and playing at home, expect a much better effort from the Bonnies tonight. VCU has won seven straight overall and is 3-0 in January. The Rams had one close call, a 53-52 win at Dayton, but other than that they’ve been winning rather comfortably. The key to tonight’s game is that I do not think VCU can match its scoring from the last two games when it put up 85 on LaSalle and 84 on George Washington. The Rams only average 63.4 points per game and are 255th in offensive efficiency. St. Bonaventure doesn’t foul all that often and VCU isn’t very good at converting free throws all that often. The road team also has a high turnover rate. Assuming the Bonnies can convert those TO’s into points, they should easily cover this number as VCU won’t be doing much scoring of their own. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE |
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01-13-22 | Oregon State +15 v. USC | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
USC just suffered its first loss and is now laying a big number against Oregon State. I’m all about taking the points in this matchup. It was only 48 hours ago that the Trojans suffered that first loss, on the road, to Stanford. Favored by 6.5 points, they lost 75-69. It was a poor shooting effort, which may have had something to do with the game being moved. Originally, it was going to be played Saturday. But COVID rearranged the schedule. Now the Trojans will play three conference games in a week. Up next is Oregon State, who was also an Elite Eight team last season. The Beavers are not having as good of a 2021-22 season; they are just 3-11 and coming off a last second loss to Oregon. But they have covered three in a row. Attendance will be limited for tonight’s game. That minimizes any home court advantage for USC. The underdog keeps this one close! Take the points with Oregon State. |
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01-13-22 | Oregon +10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 84-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
UCLA is 10-1 and ranked third in the country. But they are 0-2 ATS since returning to the court from a near month-long layoff. Last week the Bruins did not cover against Long Beach State or against California. Considering Cal only made 1 of its 14 three-point attempts, it’s rather shocking UCLA couldn’t win that game by more than eight points. Oregon is a much tougher opponent than Cal (or Long Beach State). The Ducks and Bruins met just once last year. The Ducks won 82-74. The teams played just once in the 2019-20 season. The Ducks won that one as well, 96-75. Both games took place in Eugene. But the Ducks did just win on the road Monday, despite allowing 53.4% shooting. They beat Oregon State 78-76. It was their third straight win. They’ve got confidence entering this game. UCLA has played only four games since the start of December. That kind of inactivity leaves them prone to a potential upset here. Grab the points with OREGON |
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01-13-22 | Thunder v. Nets -8.5 | Top | 130-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
After thrashing the Bulls 138-112 last night, Brooklyn is back at home Thursday to play Oklahoma City. That means no Kyrie Irving (unvaccinated) but it’s not like the Thunder should provide a ton of resistance here. My view is that after seven straight ATS losses (going into last night), the Nets are due to pick up steam. Due to the blowout nature of last night’s game, Steve Nash was able to give some much needed rest to key players. Kevin Durant played just 30 minutes while James Harden played 33. That duo still found a way to combine for 52 points against the Bulls. We should get similar production, if not more, with them on the court for a longer amount of time tonight. Oklahoma City has lost five in a row and hasn’t been able to even score 100 points in five of its last seven games. They are last in the league in scoring, a big problem when getting ready to face Brooklyn, who is one of the top scoring teams. Back in November, the Nets beat the Thunder 120-96 and they were nine point ROAD favorites. It wasn’t the second night of a back to back, but there was no Irving. The real sad thing for the Thunder is that they turned in one of their better offensive games on Tuesday and still lost. I don’t think they’re going to score a ton of points tonight, so lay the points with BROOKLYN. |
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01-13-22 | Ohio State +4 v. Wisconsin | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Not sure Wisconsin deserves to be ranked #13 in the country at this moment. Granted, the Badgers are 13-2 and on a five-game win streak. But they are the third highest ranked Big 10 team right now. Does anyone really believe this is the third best team in this ultra-strong conference. Four of the wins during Wisconsin’s current streak have been by five points or fewer. They did go to Purdue and pull an upset, give the Badgers credit for that. But some of the other close calls were against Nicholls State and Illinois State. This week saw the Badgers move up 10 spots in the Top 25. I’m really salivating at this opportunity to fade them. It helps that they are facing Ohio State, who won the first meeting 73-55 in Columbus. Wisconsin was dominated on the glass in that game and was held to 33.8% from the floor, including 6 of 26 from behind the arc. The Buckeyes have lost only one time in their last seven games. They beat Duke earlier this year. I get the revenge angle being in play, but I think Ohio State is better. So TAKE THE POINTS. |
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01-13-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee finds itself on a three-game losing streak. But the Blue Raiders are 10-2 against the spread in 2021-22. There’s only two teams with a higher percentage of covering games. MT is 5-0 ATS when favored. So this is precisely the kind of spot where you want to back them. The opponent is Florida Atlantic, who is 7-6 and coming off a win at Marshall. But it’s been an up and down year for the Owls. Before going to Marshall and pulling the upset, FAU was an upset victim at the hands of High Point, which was also a road game. The three straight losses that MT has suffered all came on the road. They are 6-0 at home, winning by almost 23 points per contest. FAU had not won on the road prior to their last game. They are just 7-22 in the last 29 games outside of Boca Raton. They’d been off for almost three weeks when they won at Marshall. Laying a small number with MT, at home, just makes sense here. |
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01-12-22 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 52-54 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Both Commonwealth teams are off losses. Virginia had no answers for North Carolina’s Armando Bacot in a 74-58 loss on Saturday. Virginia Tech has lost two in a row and six of nine while dealing with COVID. Several factors have me on Virginia here. The Cavaliers are at home, after playing three straight on the road. They are still a top 25 team (barely) and only giving up 58.8 points per contest. Virginia Tech gives up a similar number of points per game, however that number has started to rise after losses to Duke and NC State. The latter loss occurred after a two-week break induced by COVID and the Hokies seemed to falter down the stretch. Another problem for the Hokies is they’ve managed to top 65 points just two times in the last nine games. You don’t see Virginia as this small of a home favorite all that often. They are better than how they’ve performed ATS at home so far. Virginia Tech has been an underdog two times previous to this. They lost both games. They are 5-12 SU the last 17 tries as a dog. Play on VIRGINIA |
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01-11-22 | Auburn v. Alabama -2 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
These are two of the five teams that believe they can win a SEC Championship this season. Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee are the others. Auburn is now being projected as a 1-seed by Joe Lunardi, but I’m not convinced they’re going to end up in that lofty position. Sell the Tigers here in what will be a very tough environment. The mood in Tuscaloosa figures to be a bit “dour” as the football team just lost the National Championship Game last night. Also, the basketball team lost at Missouri on Saturday, as a 14-point favorite. Off that kind of loss, the Crimson Tide should come out motivated here, looking to raise the spirits of those on campus. Alabama has not lost at home. They are 7-0 here this season and have won 10 of the last 12 times they’ve hosted Auburn. The Tide have also not lost back to back games this season. Previous wins over Houston and Gonzaga show Bama can beat anyone. Auburn hasn’t faced many strong teams during their 11-game win streak, save for LSU and that was a home game. Road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 have seen the Tigers go just 2-11 ATS. Play on ALABAMA. |
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01-10-22 | Campbell v. Winthrop -4 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
After losing three straight games, each time as a favorite, Campbell finds itself as a slight underdog to Winthrop on Monday. Winthrop, who has not played since 12/21, has dominated this Big South rivalry, taking the last seven meetings. They’ve lost their last two games, so motivation will be high for both teams. Though Campbell is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and Winthrop is 0-5 ATS as a favorite, I am backing the chalk in this one. This is for a number of reasons. One is where the game is being played. Winthrop has won all three previous home games this year while averaging 85 points. Campbell’s last win over a Division I foe took place all the way back on November 27th. They defeated Stetson by just two points. Though Campbell is perfect against the spread when getting points, they were underdogs of 7.5 or more in all three games. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Fighting Camels are 1-5 ATS in their last six. Last Wednesday was their first game since 12/22 and they shot just 40% overall and 16.7% from behind the arc. Winthrop obviously has had Campbell’s number in the past. These teams play very different brands of basketball. Winthrop likes to get out and run while Campbell plays slow. The problem for the Camels is they only average 61.7 points per contest on the road. As a small underdog, that’s not nearly enough to cover against Winthrop on the road. Lay the points with WINTHROP |
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01-09-22 | Cavs v. Warriors -10 | Top | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Golden State will finally get Klay Thompson back on Sunday. It’ll be a familiar foe Thompson and the Warriors are up against. Cleveland is the team they played in four consecutive NBA Finals (2015-18) and they won three of them. Klay hasn't played a single minute since landing awkwardly on his leg in the 2019 NBA Finals. After that, he then tore his Achilles in November of 2020. That's now 900+ days of being sidelined. Over the course of his career, Thompson is shooting an extraordinary 41.9% from deep. He's also accomplished one of the most incredible feats in NBA History. 37pts on 13/13 shooting in a SINGLE QUARTER. I mean that's a great game for most people. He went on to score 52 in the game. Also, Klay once dropped 43 pts while taking only 4 dribbles. Some things that this man has done are just out of this world. Cleveland has been a major surprise this season, which is emphasized by them having the NBA’s best against the spread record. But I think the oddsmakers are going to catch up with the Cavs over these next couple months. While this is obviously a big spread, it really says something about how oddsmakers’ perceive the Cavs compared to one of the top teams in the league. Thompson’s return couldn’t have come at a better time as the Warriors have lost two in a row for the first time this season. Steph Curry and Draymond Green missed the last game, a 101-96 loss in New Orleans, but they are both listed as probable to join Thompson on the court Sunday. Lay the points with GOLDEN STATE |
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01-09-22 | Cleveland State -2.5 v. Youngstown State | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Cleveland State is off a one-point win at Robert Morris. That puts the Vikings at 5-0 in Horizon League play. They’ve won three straight and 9 of 10 overall. The only loss in that stretch of games came by five points, in overtime, at Oklahoma State (a team that just beat Texas on Saturday!) The Vikings’ success in the Horizon League dates back to last season when they shared the regular season crown with Wright State and then won the Conference Tournament. CSU should not have much difficulty defeating in-state rival Youngstown State this afternoon. YSU is coming off a loss, 71-61 to IPFW, leaving them at 9-6 overall and 2-3 the last five games. One of the Penguins’ two recent victories was against a non-DI team. The other win was by four at last place Robert Morris. The last three losses have been by a total of 55 points. These two Ohio schools simply are not in the same class. Cleveland State swept the two games last year, winning by an average of 16 points. The Vikings have covered 32 of the last 46 Horizon League games and in addition to that, they are 3-0 ATS the L3 times they’ve been a road favorite of three points or less. Youngstown State has only covered one of six home games this year and they aren’t getting nearly enough here to buck that trend. Lay the points in this one with CLEVELAND STATE |
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01-08-22 | Magic v. Pistons -1.5 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Orlando and Detroit have the two worst records in the NBA. Orlando is 7-32. Detroit is 7-30. Someone’s gotta win here and I think it will be Detroit. Orlando has lost seven in a row. Though Detroit is coming off consecutive 30 point defeats, both of those were on the road. They’d won two straight prior to those losses. The last time the Pistons were at home, they beat San Antonio. Then they went out and won in Milwaukee, which was rather shocking. Back in October, they won the first matchup of the year with Orlando, 110-103 as six-point favorites. The line is obviously much shorter this time and that’s why we like it. No way you can take Orlando getting such a short number on the road. Having won a couple of games recently and playing at home, the Pistons should be more confident heading into this one. They are on an 11-3 ATS run following an ATS loss. Also giving them confidence is the fact they are 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings with Orlando and 5-1 ATS the last six meetings here in Detroit. Take the PISTONS |
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01-08-22 | Kansas -4 v. Texas Tech | Top | 67-75 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Texas Tech let us down in the game vs. Iowa State, losing 51-47 in what was an ugly performance from both teams. Unfortunately for Red Raiders’ fans, they face an even tougher opponent on Saturday, that being Kansas. The #6 ranked Jayhawks may not be the favorites in the Big 12 this year (Baylor is), but they remain formidable. Their record is 12-1 and that one loss was by one point, on a buzzer-beater, against Dayton in a Holiday tournament. Earlier in the week, KU easily defeated Oklahoma State on the road. It was 74-63 as 6.5 point favorites. The Jayhawks have covered 25 of their last 37 conference games. Texas Tech’s dreadful shooting in the loss to Iowa State is cause for concern here. The Red Raiders shot 38.8% overall and made only 3 of 17 tries from three. It would be one thing if that were an isolated event. But it was the third time in the last six games where TT did not score 60 points. Kansas has little difficulty scoring. They average 84.3 points per contest, which is top seven in the country. They scored 73 in the last game despite missing 20 straight shots at one point. Texas Tech, while often good defensively, just can’t compete with this team. Lay the points with KANSAS |
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01-07-22 | Kings v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Denver badly needs to win tonight as they’ve lost their last two games. The losing is tied to injuries and COVID-related absences. But Nikola Jokic is still here and he had 26-21-11 the other night. The Nuggets lost that game, but only by six to a very good opponent (Utah). Facing a “lesser” team tonight, I look for the Nuggets to get back into the win column. They’ve had only one losing streak longer than two games all year. Sacramento has also dropped two in a row. Recently, they’ve been losing to teams that have been without their superstars. There was a loss to Dallas (who was without Doncic), a loss to the Lakers (who didn’t have LeBron or Davis) and most recently a loss to Atlanta (who was without Young, Collins and Bogdanovic). Unlike Denver, the Kings don’t have a Jokic that they can count on to help turn things around. Defensively, Sacramento really struggles on the road. They give up 117.4 points per game when playing away from home. Lay the points with DENVER here. |
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01-07-22 | Xavier v. Butler +5.5 | Top | 87-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Both Xavier and Butler are off losses here. But, for Xavier, that loss was all the way back on 12/21 - to Villanova 71-58. There’s actually been only one cancellation for the Musketeers - that being Tuesday’s scheduled game vs. Georgetown. So it’s not like this long stretch of inactivity was unexpected. Still though, the #22 team in the country is likely to be “rusty” on Friday night. Butler did play Tuesday and lost 71-56 to a good Seton Hall team. So this marks the second straight home game vs. a Top 25 opponent. The Bulldogs were 6-1 in Hinkle Fieldhouse prior to losing to Seton Hall. Defensively, there’s nothing wrong with what Butler is doing. At home, they are allowing less than 60 points per contest. This will be just the third true road game for Xavier. They did win at Oklahoma State, but as I mentioned before lost at Villanova. The Musketeers were not favored in either of those two previous road tilts. They are here. Xavier is 0-4 ATS the last four times it has been a road favorite. Take the points with BUTLER here. |
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01-06-22 | USC v. California +5.5 | Top | 77-63 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
USC is one of three teams still undefeated. They are 12-0 and ranked in the top ten. But it’s been almost three weeks since the Trojans last played a game. I think all the postponements/cancellations lead to a rusty performance tonight against California. In the time Southern Cal has been out of action, Cal has gotten three games in. They won all three. Overall, they’ve won five straight. The Bears beat Arizona State by 24 on Sunday, a nice warm-up for this game. It was their ninth straight win at home. The Bears only loss in Berkeley so far was the season opener. They are 8-2 ATS in home games and 8-1 ATS their last nine games, period. Thus far, Southern Cal has played only three true road games. Two of them were wins by five points or less. The last one was a two-point win at Washington State. This shapes up to be the Trojans’ most difficult game to date. Cal’s home success is not limited to this year. They are 29-14 ATS L43 home games. Take the points in this one. |
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01-06-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Golden State finds itself in a real predicament tonight. Steph Curry, already mired in a shooting slump, suffered a quad contusion in last night’s loss to Dallas and almost certainly isn’t going to play tonight as a a result. It was a really poor effort from the Warriors last night as they lost 99-82 to the Mavericks. Curry was just 5 of 24 on field goal attempts, which included 1 of 9 on three pointers. He finished with 14 points. The team was only 5 of 28 on three last night. It is next to impossible to fill Curry’s shoes, especially with Klay Thompson still not back. Were Curry playing here, then I’d say there’s an excellent chance Golden State would bounce back from last night’s shooting slump. But that’s not the case, After facing last year’s NBA Champs and two of the West’s top three teams, New Orleans is getting a big break here with Curry injured. The Pelicans need to start winning as they are just 13-25 this year. It’s an opportunity the Pelicans must take advantage of here. They’d won five of six before losing the last three. Leading scorer Brandon Ingram has struggled in back to back games, but should bounce back here. Take the points. |
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01-05-22 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 47-51 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Texas Tech is ranked #25 in the country and I believe they are worthy of that ranking. I feel much differently about Iowa State, who checks in ranked #11 in the country. The Cyclones just suffered their first loss of the year and it was to #1 Baylor, here at home, 77-72 on New Year’s Day. But just because ISU started the year by winning its first 12 games doesn’t necessarily mean this is one of the best teams in the country. On the contrary, if you check out the various power ranking systems, you’ll see that Iowa State is not viewed as favorably by the oddsmakers as they are by the pollsters. They’ve been an underdog in five games, covering all five. That’s nice, but unlikely to continue. The Cyclones finished last year with a 2-22 record! They were 0-18 in the Big 12, the first time a team went winless in this conference since TCU in 2014. Texas Tech has had Iowa State’s number the last two years. The Red Raiders have won - and covered - all four meetings. All four wins have been by at least 20 points. Iowa State is a team you’re going to want to start fading. I obviously expect them to lose tonight. Texas Tech is a top 10 team defensively that limits opponents to 31% shooting on threes. Iowa State was 1 of 14 on three point attempts vs. Baylor. Take the points with TEXAS TECH |
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01-05-22 | Rockets +7 v. Wizards | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
I know things haven’t been pretty for Houston of late with losses piling up and some “insubordination” to boot. The team has lost eight in a row, all by at least nine points. But tonight the Rockets will have a full complement of players and they are taking on a Washington team that doesn’t blow many opponents out. Going back to mid-November, the Wizards have just one win that came by greater than seven points. It was against a Cleveland team that was severely undermanned because of COVID. Since starting the season 10-3, Washington is six games below .500 and a lot of underlying metrics suggest they are very lucky to be in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. Five of the last six games have seen the Wizards give up 117 points or more. They actually own the third worst point differential in the conference! The team did win on Monday, but by only three points over Charlotte. Out West, you’ll find Houston at the bottom of the standings. This is their second losing streak of eight or more games this season, but remember they also had a seven-game win streak in between. A couple of players were suspended for Monday’s loss to the 76ers. Those players are going to be back in the lineup tonight. Just think this is too many points for a middling Washington team to be laying against anybody. Take HOUSTON plus the points |
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01-05-22 | VCU v. Dayton -2 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
VCU has won four in a row while Dayton is just 2-2 in its last four. But this game takes place in Dayton and I think the home team is a bargain as a short favorite. The Flyers have won four straight at home. That includes wins by 38 and 39 points. They also upset Va Tech here. The last time the team was in action, it defeated Southern U 69-60. VCU doesn’t score a whole heck of a lot and they are 0-3 ATS the previous two years as a road underdog of three points or less. The Rams have had their last four games either postponed or cancelled because of COVID-19, so that four-game win streak doesn’t really mean all that much. It’s been three weeks since they last played a game. Offensively, VCU is only 272nd in adjusted efficiency. They shoot below 30% on three-point attempts and turn the ball over on nearly one-quarter of their possessions. Dayton has also had to postpone its last two games. But a key edge they have in this matchup comes on two-point field goals. The Flyers are 12th in the country in FG% inside the three-point line. I say lay the points with DAYTON |
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01-04-22 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Both these teams have been defying expectations this season. The Grizzlies have gone 15-4 in their last 19 games, which includes a shocking 10-2 record in the 12 games they were without leading scorer Ja Morant. The Cavs have the best ATS record in the NBA right now at 24-11-2 ATS. But Cleveland is not close to being 100 percent right now. There are multiple injuries in the backcourt, including a season-ender to PG Ricky Rubio, which could be a crushing blow. Darius Garland could return to the lineup tonight, but he’s been in health and safety protocol for the last week. How effective will he be in his first game back? The Cavs did just beat Indiana on Sunday, 108-104. But they did not cover the spread. It was their fourth straight ATS loss, so predictably they are starting to “give some back” at the betting window. Before beating Indiana, they’d lost each of the previous three games straight up. Memphis won its fifth straight last night, beating Brooklyn 118-104 as a 6.5 point underdog. Morant, who is back, has scored 30 or more in four straight games. He had 37 when the Grizzlies beat the Cavs 132-121 in the opening game of the season. The Grizzlies are a better team than the Cavaliers. Not too worried about this being the second night of a back to back for the Grizz as they are hot right now and 9-3 this year when coming off a double digit win. Take MEMPHIS plus the points |
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01-03-22 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -12.5 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Wisconsin is 10-2 but figures to be in for a proverbial “rude awakening” when they face #3 Purdue on Monday. The third-ranked Boilermakers have been exceptional so far, winning all eight home games by an average of 28 points per game. Their only loss was to Rutgers - on a buzzer-beater - back on Dec 9. West Lafayette has not been Wisconsin’s favorite place to visit. The Badgers are 4-42 here all-time and have failed to cover 14 of the previous 18 times. The last time the Badgers played a road game was at Ohio State on Dec 11. They lost there by 18 points. While Purdue has rolled to four straight double digit wins, Wisconsin was involved in a close call in their last game, only beating Illinois State by four points. That was after only beating Nicholls State by three points two weeks before, a game where they had to overcome a 12-point deficit. The Badgers were missing five reserves against Illinois State, a game which took place only five days ago, and all five are listed as questionable for tonight. This just looks like a total mismatch to us with Purdue having the most efficient offense in the country and Wisconsin only averaging 64 points when not playing in Madison. The home court advantage is huge. Take Purdue to win and cover. |
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01-02-22 | Ohio State -9.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 87-79 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Ohio State is already 2-0 in conference play, with wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. I think they’ll have little difficulty making it three straight Big 10 wins and five straight wins overall when they face struggling Nebraska tonight. The Cornhuskers did win their last game 88-74, but that was against Kennesaw State and they barely covered the 13.5-point spread. The ‘Huskers are 0-2 in Big 10 games so far, losing at Indiana by 13 and at home to Michigan by 35. They’ve lost five of six overall, three of the losses coming by double digits. This will be Ohio State’s first game since a December 11th win over Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have a win over Duke this year as well. They are 3-1 vs. Top 25 opponents this season and ranked #13 themselves. Nebraska is obviously not ranked and is really no match for the Buckeyes here. The Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS their last four games as an underdog and 5-13 ATS their last 18 games as a home dog. Nebraska is shooting just 27.5% from three-point land this year. Ohio State is at 38.6%. Look for the Buckeyes to easily cover this number |
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01-02-22 | Heat -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Miami may be undermanned at the moment, but they continue to win. Friday’s 120-110 triumph over Houston, which came on the heels of a game being postponed, was the Heat’s fifth straight victory. We think they’ve got enough to cover against Sacramento here on Sunday. On Friday, the Heat were led by Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry. That trio is strong enough to carry the team, moving forward. Butler scored a season-high 37 points vs. the Rockets. Going back a bit further, Miami has won seven of eight and has the best net efficiency rating this season in the Eastern Conference. While they are 23-13 on the season, Sacramento is just 15-22. The Kings were beaten by 16 here at home on New Year’s Eve. The loss was to Dallas, who they had just beaten on a buzzer-beater two days earlier. Sacramento has lost four of its last six, even though all but one of the games took place at home. They have a losing home record. The Kings’ biggest problem is lack of defense. They give up 113.7 points per contest, which is third most in the NBA. Also of concern is a 1-8 ATS run against teams that have winning records. Take Miami to win and cover here. |
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01-01-22 | Pelicans v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 113-136 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Pelicans/Bucks Tough spot for New Orleans going against one of the top teams in the league. Milwaukee has started to hit their stride with five straight wins, the last being a 136-118 beatdown of Orlando. Expect a similar final score in this game. The Bucks are averaging 121.6 points during the five-game win streak while allowing only 108.4. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a real tear, averaging 32.3 points and 10 rebounds the last three games while shooting 56.3 percent from the field. The Bucks’ bench has contributed at least 36 points in each of the last three games, so it’s been a very well-rounded effort from the defending champs at the offensive end of late. New Orleans has played some of its best ball of late, winning five of its last six games. They just beat Cleveland, who had several players out, 108-104 in their last game. But the Pelicans are dealing with several absences of their own right now. Three players are in health and safety protocols. Brandon Ingram, who generally carries the scoring load, is questionable with an Achilles injury. Milwaukee will remember losing to New Orleans in overtime two weeks ago and be out for revenge. The Pelicans are just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as a road underdog. 10* NBA PLAYBOOK on MILWAUKEE |
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12-29-21 | Lakers +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Lakers/Grizzlies The Grizzlies are a big public play here, as the Lakers finally broke their five-game slide with a win at Houston last night. This would typically be a great place to go against LA in the second game of a back-to-back, but there's simply no way that LeBron James can relax considering their current record. LA also plays with revenge here after a 108-95 home defeat to the Grizz back on December 9th. Memphis comes in off B2B BIG wins, pulling away for a 127-102 victory over Sacramento, before then holding on for a 114-113 victory at Phoenix. Can anyone say letdown spot? Yes, the Lakers are without AD, but I expect The King and Russell Westbrook to build off last night's win and at the very least, take this one right down to the final moments. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER Lakers. |
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12-28-21 | Yale +13 v. St. Mary's | Top | 60-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Yale/Saint Mary's Outright win? I'm not calling for that. But I think the hungry underdog visiting side can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread that it's been afforded tonight. This is Saint Mary's final non-conference matchup of the year. It has a big New Year's day game against San Francisco. I say the Gaels get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today. The Bulldogs are 6-7 after a 69-60 loss to Monmouth. Overall Yale averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding 69.8. The Gaels are 11-3 and they're off a 75-58 win over Missouri State. Overall they average 67.5 PPG, while allowing 58. I think Yale is catching Saint Mary's at a great time here. The Bulldogs are putting up over 70 PPG on average and I think they'll be much more competitive than what this line is suggesting. 10* COACHES CORNER on Yale. |
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12-27-21 | Brown v. Syracuse -10.5 | Top | 62-93 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show |
Brown/Syracuse The Brown Bears are 8-5. They've won three straight on the road, but I think they'll predictably struggle here in this difficult road venue and against this "step up" in competition. Syraucse had its two game win streak snapped with B2B losses, falling 67-63 to Villanova on a neutral court, before then dropping a 79-75 decision at Georgetown as a 3-point favorite in its last outing. The Orange though average 77.5 PPG, while Brown averages just 72.8. The Orange are far superior defensively and have one last opportunity here for a tune-up befor the majority of league action gets underway. Look for Brown to take a step back after three straight wins and for the Orange to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. 10* Coaches Corner on Syracuse. |
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12-23-21 | Fresno State v. Weber State -1 | Top | 69-43 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Fresno State/Weber State The Bulldogs are 9-3 this year. They're coming off a 55-50 road loss at Utah on Tuesday and I think they'll have a predictable "letdown" here as well in this difficult road venue. Orlando Robinson averages 18.2 points and 8.2 boards for Fresno State. So far the Bulldogs have conceded just 55.9 PPG this season. The Wildcats are 9-3 so far as well. They're off an 89-71 home loss to BYU. Koby McEwan leads the way most nights by averaging 16.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Weber State is so far allowing 68.4 PPG. The level of competition that each has faced to this point has to be taken into account for both teams. Weber State rebounds here at home and takes advantage of a now vulnerable Bulldogs side. 10* COACHES CORNER on Weber State. |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Denver/OKC I think Denver is going to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent today. OKC has won two straight games and covered in three straight. It's playing its best basketball of the season. Off the 102-99 road win at Memphis, it has a tough game at Phoenix tomorrow, so I expect it to make the most of friendly confines. Denver is just 7-9 on the road. It only averages 106.8 PPG. Off a 133-115 road win at Atlanta and with a game at home tomorrow night against LaMelo Ball and the Hornets, not only is this a letdown off the big win over the Hawks, but a look-ahead spot as well. Look for the "under the radar" Grizz to, at the very least, keep this one close down the stretch. 10* GAME OF WEEK on Thunder. |
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12-22-21 | Kennesaw State v. Nebraska -11.5 | Top | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Kennesaw State/Nebraska Two teams in need of a win before the X-Mas break go H2H here. I think this one favors the favorite though. The Kennesaw State Owls have lost five of their last seven, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers enter looking to snap a five-game slide. Kennessaw State averages 76.4 PPG, while allowing 72.1. Chris Youngblood is the star, averaging 13.5 points and 5.4 boards per game. Nebraska averages 73.9 PPG, while conceding 76.6. Alzono Verge Jr. averages 16.4 points and 5.8 boards per game. The Owls have lost five straight on the road. Yes, Nebraska has struggled to this point, but the level of competition for each school must be factored in here as well. The Cornhuskers will enjoy a week off over Christmas before getting into their conference schedule and I believe they make the most of this "tune up." Kennesaw State has lost five straight on the road and I don't trust its defense here in this difficult road venue. Look for Nebraska to play hard until the final horn. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF YEAR on Nebraska. |
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12-21-21 | Northwestern State +24 v. Texas A&M | Top | 61-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Northwestern State/Texas A&M I think the 3-9 Northwestern State Demons come in under the radar here agains the 8-2 Texas A&M Aggies. The Demons are off a 104-50 win over subdivision Southwest Adventist. Kendal Coleman continues to be a consistent bright spot by averaging 15.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. The Aggies have been impressive, but I say they have a small letdown here afrer their big 83-73 win over Oregon State last time out. Quenton Jackson is the lone double-digit scorer for the Aggies with 12.5 PPG. Northwestern State averages 70.2 PPG, while allowing 79.7. The Aggies average 72 PPG, while conceding 62.2. Look for the visitors to hang around late. 10* COACHES CORNER on Northwestern State. |
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12-19-21 | Robert Morris +11.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 74-100 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Robert Morris/Bowling Green I think that Bowling Green gets caught "looking past" the lowly 1-8 Robert Morris Colonials. Most recently Robert Morris fell 85-74 to Florida Gulf Coast. The team is led by Kahiel Spear, who averages 13.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. The Colonials average 70 PPG, while allowing 77.7. Bowling Green gets caught complacent after its 73-72 win over Oakland last time out. Daeqwon Plowden leads the way most nights for the Falcons with 15.1 points and 7.3 RPG. On the season BG is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 74.7. Bowling Green is just 6-24-2 ATS in its last 32 home games. With the X-Mas break upcoming, look for the Falcons to take the foot off the gas in the second half. 10* COACHES CORNER on Robert Morris. |
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12-18-21 | Wizards +11.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Wizards/Jazz Washington comes in under the radar here after four straight losses. Utah comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won eight of its last nine. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but I think the more desperate side will deliver ATS. This is a revenge game as well for Washington, that lost both SU and ATS at home to the Jazz earlier in the season. Note that Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 as a road dog in the +9.5 to +11.5 points range. I say this one is WAY tighter than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 10* COACHES CORNER on the Wizards. |
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12-17-21 | UT-Rio Grande Valley +5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 68-50 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
UTRGV/UTSA I like the Vaqueros to keep this one close. UTRGV is 4-7, while the UTSA Roadrunners are 6-4. UTRGV is off a 70-60 loss to Texas Southern. RayQuan Taylor was a bright spot in defeat with 16 points and six boards. UTSA is 3-1 in its last four. It's off a tighter than expectd 78-73 win over Sam Houston on Saturday. The Roadrunners' strength of schedule has to be questioned somewhat. I see this one coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so that means I'm grabbing the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Texas Rio Grande Valley. |
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12-15-21 | Northern Colorado +26 v. Arizona | Top | 76-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Northern Colorado/Arizona The 6-5 Northern Colorado Bears are going to catch the 9-0 Wilcats looking past them here to their long Christmas break, before a big road conference road trip starting at UCLA on December 30th. The Bears are off a 74-69 win over South Dakota. They average 74.6 PPG, while allowing 72.8. Clearly, the last thing the visiting side can do is turn this into a faster-paced affair and expect to "hang" with the highest-scoring team in the nation. Arizona averages 90.7 PPG, while allowing 61.7. The Wildcats though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as a non-conference home favoirte in the -23 to -27 points range. I look for the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half. No outright, but closer than expected. Northern Colorado 10* COACHES CORNER. |
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12-14-21 | Warriors v. Knicks +4 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Warriors/Knicks The Knicks were the talk of the NBA last season. They're struggling this year though, as they enter having lost three straight, most recently a 112-97 home loss to the Bucks (New York though is 8-2 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 points or less in.) Golden State is now 17-9-1 after last night's 102-100 win at Indiana. The Warriors long Eastern-Conference road swing continues with games at Boston and Toronto after this. On the heels of the second game of the B2B scenario though, I expect the Warriors to finally stumble here. The Knicks are ultra-motivated to break out of their slump and here's the perfect "measuring stick" to do that against. New York has all the motivation it needs to get off the schneid and I expect it to deliver. That said, grab the points! 10* GAME OF THE WEEK. |
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12-12-21 | Florida A&M +13 v. Akron | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
FAMU/Akron. The 2-5 Rattlers get ready to take on the 5-3 Zips. Outright win? I'm not calling for that. But I do think this is a few too many points to be giving up to FAMU. FAMU enters off a 69-55 loss to Florida Gulf Coast last time out. Bryce Morgan was a bright spot with 13 points (the Rattlers though are 7-1 ATS in their last eight off a SU/ATS loss in which they were held to 55 points or less in.) The Zips have won three straight. They're the better team. But I think they come in complacent here and get caught looking past their lowly opponent (note that Akron is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a double-digit non-conference home favorite.) The Rattlers are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Florida A&M. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers v. Thunder +6 | Top | 116-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Lakers/Thunder The Lakers are 13-13 after a 108-95 loss at Memphis last night. LA has chemistry issues. It's also old. The Lakers won't be in the NBA Finals this year obviously. The young Thunder are off a huge 110-109 road win at Toronto. I say they keep it rolling here. OKC already beat the Lakers 107-104 as 10.5-point underdogs on November 4th and I think it can do it again. James and company have a target on their back every night. They always have to face their opponents "A" game. Look for this road weary Lakers team to once again fall below the .500 mark. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER Thunder. |
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12-09-21 | Denver +12.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 67-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Denver/New Mexico New Mexico is a heavy favorite. Denver has struggled this year, but I think it comes in under the radar tonight. The Lobos have been inconsistent. They beat New Mexico State 101-94 on the road, before then falling 78-76 to the Aggies at home in the following one. Denver will have an opportunity here against a New Mexico side that ranks 266th in terms of defensive efficiency rankings. New Mexico is getting great pla from Jamal Mashburn Jr., who is avearging 21 PPG, but the Lobos are already 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite. Denver on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog. I think the Pioneers keep this one interesting down the stretch. 10* COACHES CORNER on Denver. |
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12-06-21 | Cavs +7 v. Bucks | Top | 104-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Cavs/Bucs Why is everyone continuing to sleep on the Cavaliers? Cleveland comes into this one likely as the hottest team in the league after seven straight ATS victories. Hows does that old saying go, good teams win, but great teams cover? The Cavs had won four straight SU, before a tight 109-108 loss at home to Utah. I like the Cavs to respond here in the second game of the back to back. The Bucks are dealing with injury issues and are preparing for a tough four-game road swing starting in Miami on Wednesday night. And that's signficant to note, as the Bucks are off a 124-102 home win over the Heat in their most recent action Saturday. Look for the under the radar visiting side to keep this one interesting late. 10* COACHES CORNER on Cavaliers. |
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12-05-21 | Ohio State v. Penn State +5.5 | Top | 76-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Ohio State/Penn State Ohio State is off a 71-66 upset win over No. 1 Duke on Tuesday. It came from behind after being down by 13 points at halftime. EJ Lidell had 14 points and 11 boards, while Zed Key led all scorers with 20 points. Call it a trap, call it a letdown, call you what you will, but I think that the Buckeyes are primed for a minor letdown here. The 4-3 Penn State Nittany Lions don't have the same luxury though after falling 63-58 to Miami on Wednesday. John Harrar had 16 points, but the Nittany Lions turned the ball over 14 times. Ohio State averages 74.7 PPG, and it allows 68.9. Penn State is averaging 67.3 PPG, while conceding only 64.1. I say Ohio State has difficulty producing the same effort for a second straight time on the road. Look for the hungrier team to keep it close, if not come out on top. 10* COACHES CORNER on Penn State. |
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12-04-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock +27.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Arkansas Little Rock/Arkansas I think Arkansas takes the foot off the gas in the second half here as it gets caught looking ahead to the start of its conference schedule, starting with a tough game at Okalahoma, followed by at Mississippi State. UALR has so far beaten the teams it should, and struggled against the "better" competition. That was the case last time out, falling 86-55 at Colorado State. But this line is inflated here now. Note that UALR is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as well after a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 55 or less points in. This line is a little TOO big. Look for a comfortable backdoor cover from the visiting side. UALR 10* COACHES CORNER. |
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12-03-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
76ers/Hawks I think this one sets up well for the hungry visiting side. Philadelphia is 11-11, while Atlanta is 12-10. The 76ers are off a tight 88-87 loss at Boston. Philly had to play from behind the entire night, and it was just unable to get over the hump at the end. With a tough upcoming two-game road set at Charlotte, the 76ers can't afford to take the foot off the gas. The Hawks are off a 114-111 win at Indiana to open up December. When these teams played on October 30th, the 76ers won 122-94 as 3.5 point favorites and I expect a similar final discrepancy here as well. This is a good matchup for Joel Embiid. He was shutdown by the Celtics, but finally we can expect a monster game from the Philly big man. There's plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. This is going to be a dog fight. One last big stat working in favor of the visiting side sees the 76ers having gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine off a SU road loss in which they were held to 90 or fewer points in. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF MONTH on Philadelphia. |
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12-02-21 | Pistons +13 v. Suns | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Pistons/Suns I base my picks on many different things. Being flexible with one's approach is crucial in my opinion. Here I just think that the Suns are overvalued because of their 18 game win streak. They just took out the Warriors at home here two nights ago, and Golden State was on a 17-game win streak. The Suns ultimately could care less about their win streak. They're realistic and understand it'll come to an end at some point. That won't be tonight. I believe the Suns will win, but I expect them to take the foot off the gas down the stretch as they prepare for the rematch with the Warriors in Golden State tomorrow night. Look for the hungry Pistons to end their road trip with a solid effort and comfortable cover. 10* COACHES CORNER on the Pistons. |
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11-30-21 | Pistons v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Pistons/Blazers Portland has gone 0-3 SU/ATS over its last three. I expect it to come in focussed on the task at hand in this one. Detroit lost both games in LA, but covered in each as a big underdog. The Pistons though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back road covers. Portland on the other hand is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after after three straight SU/ATS road losses in a row. The Blazers have always played better at home, and that's definitely the case again this season, as they're just 1-10 on the road and 9-1 in Portland. Detroit is just 2-8 on the road. Look for the determined home side to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. 10* COACHES CORNER on Portland. |
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11-27-21 | Texas-Arlington +15.5 v. Utah State | Top | 61-80 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
UTA/USU UTA has lost all four games it's played this year against Division 1 opponents and its path doesn't get any easier this evening at Utah State. All that said though, I like the Mavericks to keep this one much closer than what this spread is suggesting. UTA is already quietly turning the corner with its performance, losing to SDSU by six points in its last outing (as a 19-point underdog.) Utah State enters complacent here after four straight wins. The Aggies won the Myrtle Beach championship with a 73-70 win over the Sooners last Sunday, so this sets up as a classic "trap" for the home side in my opinion. Utah State may have been undervalued in the betting market up to this point, but now it's the Mavericks who are in that role. UTA is playing much better now than its earlier struggles and numbers are still pointing to, so expect that progression to continue here. Grab the points. Texas Arlington 10* GAME OF MONTH. |
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11-25-21 | Baylor v. VCU +12.5 | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Baylor/VCU This is the semi's of the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. I like VCU to carry over its momentum here after upsetting Syracuse 67-55 as a 5-point underdog. It's early, but the Rams average 54 PPG, while allowing 52. Levi Stockard III had 15 points in the victory over the Orange. Baylor is a perfect 5-0. Its' averaging 85.8 points per game, while conceding 55.6. LJ Cryer had 15 points in the Bears 75-63 win over Arizona State last night. Clearly VCU will be trying to double down on the defensive end tonight to try and grind out the upset. Expect this one to be much closer than what this line is suggesting. VCU 10* COACHES CORNER. |
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11-24-21 | Heat v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Heat/Wolves. Miami is off a 100-92 win at Detroit, unable to cover the 10.5-point spread. The Heat have lost two straight ATS. With two nights off after this, followed by a final road game at Chicago, I think Miami gets caught flat-footed again here. The Wolves are getting zero respect from the oddsmakers. They're slow in realizing how good Minnesota is playing right now. Minnesota has won four straight and covered in five straight. This is the best basketball that Minnesota has played in years. Note that the Wolves are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a SU/ATS road win in which they held their opponent to 99 or less points in (just beat Pels 110-96 in NO.) Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Wolves. |
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11-23-21 | Heat v. Pistons +10 | Top | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Heat/Pistons. Is Miami the better team? Clearly it is. Am I calling for an outright upset? I am not. But I think that Miami comes in complacent here and "plays down" to the level of its competition. Miami is 11-6 overall, but only 5-5 on the road. It's off a 103-100 loss at Washington. Detroit is off the 121-116 loss to the Lakers, and it'll be plenty fired up after the scuffle with LeBron James etc. The Pistons are on the road for a very tough road trip as well after this game, with a game at Milwaukee tomorrow, followed by the Clippers, Lakers, Portland and Phoenix. That puts added importance onto tonight's game to try and "steal" a victory. Miami on the other hand is in Minnesota tomorrow night, followed by a game at the Bulls. I think the Heat get caught looking ahead. No outright. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Detroit. |
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11-22-21 | Grizzlies +9 v. Jazz | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Grizzlies/Jazz The Grizzlies had won two straight, scoring at least 120 points in each before getting blown out in their last game. Ja Morant averages 25.1 PPG for Memphis and he leads four players that average at least 14 PPG. The Jazz had lost four of five, before now entering this one having won three straight. Six players scored in double figures in the win over the Kings most recently. One of these teams is desperate to break out of its current slide, while the other comes in complacent. I think the hungrier team keeps this one competitive down the stretch (note that the Grizz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS road loss in their last outing.) Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Grizzlies. |
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11-21-21 | Southern v. Nebraska -16.5 | Top | 59-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Southern/Nebraska Southern lost its second straight game in a heart-breaking 71-68 loss to South Dakota State this past Friday. While it won the turnover battle 17-13, it lost the rebound battle by a 37-27 margin. Jayden Saddler had 19 points in a losing cause for the Jaguars. Southern averages 66 PPG, while allowing 73.5. Nebraska averages 73.8 PPG, while allowing 69.2. The Cornhuskers enter off a 78-60 win over Idaho State. Keep your eyes on Bryce McGowens today, as he is averaging 16.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1 assist per game in the early going. The Huskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five though vs. teams with losing records and 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams with losing road records. Southern has played decently, but I say this step up in competition will be too much for it to handle. Lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Nebraska. |
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11-20-21 | Heat v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Heat/Wizards Miami is off five straight covers and four straight victories. With two nights off before a game at Detroit though, I think the Heat come out cold here. Washington plays with revenge after a 112-97 loss at Miami just two nights ago (and that's sigificant to note as the Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in.) I think home court matters in this one for sure. The play is Washington. 10* PLAYBOOK on Washington. |
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11-15-21 | Suns v. Wolves +4 | Top | 99-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Suns/Wolves The Suns are 9-3 after their 115-89 win at Houston last night. With two upcoming home games against Dallas starting on Wednesday, followed by Denver and a four-game road trip, I think Phoenix finally stumbles here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Minnesota is off a 129-102 loss at the Clippers. The night before that they hammered the Lakers 107-83. Now the Wolves return home and I expect this healthy team to make a game of this one. Phoenix is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the second game of a B2B after holding its previous opponent to 95 or fewer points in the first. 10* GAME OF WEEK Minnesota. |
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11-12-21 | Pistons +5 v. Cavs | Top | 78-98 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Pistons/Cavaliers. I've been impressed by the Cavaliers this year. They're 7-5 SU and they've won six straight against the spread. The recent loss of Colin Sexton is going to catch up to them though, and I firmly believe that'll be sooner, rather than later. The Cavs get caught looking ahead to their game here against Boston tomorrow night, while Detroit will look to take advantage. The Pistons have covered in two straight and they're off a big 112-104 outright win at Houston as 2.5-point underdogs last time out. This one sets up as a possible outright upset, but grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Pistons. |
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11-12-21 | VMI +2 v. Presbyterian | Top | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
VMI/Presbyterian The Blue Hose are 0-1, while the Keydets are 1-0. I think VMI is the correct call here. The Keydets smoked Carlow University in their opener, while Presbyterian fell to Clemson. The Keydets though are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, while teh Blue Hose are interesting 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Friday and just 1-5 ATS in their last six off an ATS victory. Outright is possible, but I'm grabbing the points. 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on VMI. |
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11-11-21 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Raptors/76ers I like Toronto to bounce back here after last night's 104-88 loss at Boston. The 76ers are ravaged by COVID right now and I expect the Raptors to quickly regroup here and to take advantage. The Raptors have performed well in this position by going 7-1 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I'm not buying into the "fatigue factor" this early in the season either. Philadelphia has lost two in a row, and with a six game Western road swing on deck after this, I expect it to go through the motions here as it prepares for that daunting trek. Look for the Raptors to deliver on Thursday night. 10* COACHES CORNER on Toronto. |
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11-11-21 | Air Force v. South Dakota -9 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Air Force/South Dakota. The home side went 14-11 last year. The Falcons on the other hand won just five games last season, and they have almost an entirely new roster this year (AJ Walker is back, he averaged 15.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.6 assists.) Overall the Falcons averaged only 58.7 PPG last year. South Dakota averaged 79 PPG, and this year it'll lean on A.J. Plitzuweit, who last year averaged 19.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. The Coyotes have four of their starters back this year. After going 0-4 in non-conference play last year, I think South Dakota comes in focussed here. Lay the points. 10* SPECIAL on South Dakota. |
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11-10-21 | Florida Atlantic -2 v. New Mexico | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
FAU/New Mexico FAU finished 13-10 last year and it's looking for its third straight winning season under coach Dusty May. New Mexico was terrible last season, finishing 6-16. The Owls went 7-5 in Conf. USA play. There are two double-digit scoring options on FAU. The Owls put up 78.1 PPG last year. The Lobos have plenty of issues coming into the season. Offense was the biggest issue, as New Mexico averaged only 65.3 PPG. The Lobos were terrible last year and it's going to take some time for Pitino to gets things turned around. I like the Owls to lay the hammer down here in what will be a hostile environment. 10* Coaches Corner on FAU. |
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11-10-21 | Hornets +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Hornets/Grizzlies. I'm expecting an all out war until the final horn. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Charlotte. The Hornets played a back-to-back at LA, losing badly to the Clippers, but then bouncing back with a much better effort in what turned out to be an unfortunate 126-123 OT loss to the Lakers. The Hornets have now lost five in a row (both SU and ATS), but I expect them, at the very least, to give the Grizz everything they can handle tonight. Memphis off a tiring 125-118 OT home win over the Wolves, so I believe fatigue is a factor here. Also note that it's a look-ahead spot with Phoenix coming to town next. I believe these teams are evenly matched on paper. That gives the advantage here to the "hungrier" team, which as I've clearly pointed out above, is the Hornets in my opinion. 10* Charlotte. |
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11-09-21 | Siena v. St Bonaventure -20 | Top | 47-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
Siena/St. Bonaventure. Sienna was 12-5 last year, taking the reg. season co-championship in the MAAC, while St. Bonaventure easily won the A-10 and went on to play in the NCAA Tournament. Siena eventually lost 55-52 to Iona in the Conference Tournament semifinal. The Bonnies however also won the regular season title over VCU, and eventually fell 76-61 to LSU in the First Round. The Saints are just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. The Bonnies are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 at home. All five senior starters return for St. Bonaventure, so lay the points here! 10* Bonnies. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Suns are in the cusp of punching their ticket to the NBA Finals. I think Phoenix will win this series, but it could have its hands full here in Game 5 in trying to put away this desperate Clippers team. LA lost 84-80 in Game 4, and it now has its back against the wall in this elimination contest. The pick: I think LA is going to show up and play well defensively and after a poor shooting game last time out, I also expect Paul George to be much more efficient here. The Suns are the better team, but I think this one will come down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Clippers. |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers -1 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I just think the Clippers are going to dig deep and deliver the goods in this Game 3. They won't be panicking, as they've already been here in their two previous series, going down 0-2, only to then rally for a series victory. I got down early and have an unfavorable line, and while the Clippers are now the slight home dog, I still think that the change in venue is just what Paul George and this veteran-laden Clippers team needs to get back into this series. The pick: Game 2 was tight, and the Clippers had their chances at the end. I say Game 3 is controlled start to finish by the home side. Chris Paul won't be at 100% health and I think LA's competent guards can slow him down even further. For all the reasons listed above, the play is LA. This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Clippers. |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Atlanta Hawks are averaging 106.3 points on 44.4 percent shooting and allowing 105 points in the playoffs, while the Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 107.9 points on 45.1 percent shooting and allowing 102.3 points so far in the post-season. The Bucks were one of the favorites to advance in the East before the season started, but the Hawks rise to this point is nothing short of spectacular. Clearly, Atlanta has already exceeded expectations to this point. The pick: I think Milwaukee is going to win this series. I don't think it'll sweep Atlanta though. That said, I do think that the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo is a major matchup issue for the Hawks and I believe that Atlanta is going to struggle down the stretch of this opener. I'm laying points and expecting a comfortable cover for the home side in Game 1. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Bucks. |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers ran out of gas in the fourth quarter, but despite only shooting 45 percent from the floor, they still had a shot at upsetting the Suns in Game 1. Phoenix didn't look overly impressive and I believe the Clippers can make the necessary adjustments to not only make Game 2 even more competitive, but possibly even pull off the straight-up upset here. The pick: The continued absence of Chris Paul won't help this Suns team over the long-term. He'll likely return soon, but he's out again tonight. So is Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers, but LA is deep and experienced and I believe it throws it best shot at the Suns tonight. That said, grab the points. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Clippers. |
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06-20-21 | Hawks +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Some cappers put a lot of stock into where the public money is going. Most sharps are contrarian by nature. When there's just a few games remaining though, those percentages of public money become skewed. I think they're much more accurate during the regular season. Most of the public money is on the Hawks, but in this case I think the public is correct. The pick: This is going to be a battle. It has been all series. Very back and forth and very close. Nothing's going to change here. Note though that the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 100 points or less in. This one comes down the final moments, so grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Hawks. |
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06-19-21 | Bucks +1 v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nets would have easily won this series if not for injuries to James Harden and Kyrie Irving. I don't think that Kevin Durant is the best basketball player of all time, but he's clearly been the best players in this series. Even better than the Bucks Giannis, who has played very well himself. But KD is going to be exhausted at this point and after the Game 6 collapse, I think the Bucks can smell the blood in the water. The pick: Further, note that Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after holding its previous opponent to 90 points or less in a SU/ATS home victory. Milwaukee's depth will prove to be the difference here vs. this wounded and undermanned Nets side. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Bucks. |
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06-18-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +3 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: With a chance to end this series here and now, I like the Hawks chances to do just that. This is a well-coached team that continues to get underestimated, both by its opponents, and the bookmakers. It's Atlanta that is controlling the pace and flow of this series and I say nothing changes here in this crucial contest. Philadelphia has the best player on the floor in Joel Embiid, but the Hawks counter with the second best player in this series in Trae Young. The pick: The bottom line here though is that Atlanta's defense has been the difference-maker for it during the playoffs and I like the Hawks to continue that run here in this crucial Game 6. Outright win is completely possible obviously, but let's grab the points just in case. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Hawks. |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Despite both Kyrie Irving and James Harden sitting this one out, I think Kevin Durant and his cast of role players can take this inconsistent Bucks team down to the wire. The pick: I think that Blake Griffin, Jeff Green and Joe Harris will have significantly better games at home. The Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the road. Clearly, the outright win isn't out of the question, but also note that Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 at home. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Nets. |
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06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +3.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawks have been fantastic at making game-to-game adjustments since Nate McMillan took over as head coach. I think that happens again here. Atlanta is now desperate to avoid an 0-3 hole and I like the Hawks to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Note that Philly is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS victories in a row as well. The pick: ATL on the other hand is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a 15 points or greater SU/ATS home loss to an opponent. Look for Trae Young to have a monster game for the Hawks' defense to finally show up as well. Outright is obviously possible, but grab the points. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Hawks. |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks +2 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Brooklyn looked like it was going to roll over the Bucks in this series, but then it shifted to Milwaukee and the Bucks somehow managed to hold on for the 86-83 victory. It was a back and forth game and really, Milwaukee did not win that one by very much obviously. But I think that Game 4 finally sets up as a great spot for the Bucks to bounce back with a convincing win. The pick: Brooklyn's role players aren't contributing and it's two super stars are now worn out, as the continued absence of "The Beard" is now taking its toll on the Nets. I like Giannis and company to lay the hammer down here. Outright win is obvious, but let's grab the points anyways. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Bucks. |
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06-10-21 | Clippers +3 v. Jazz | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Clippers have a legitimate shot at taking Game 2 outright. LA let a lead slip away in Game 1, and it had a shot at sending it to OT late, but ultimately while LA covered in Game 1, it lost outright. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George continue to play well though and the Clippers have the defensive toughness to make adjustments and play better against Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz. The pick: LA is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it allowed 110 or more points in. I say that this one comes right down to the wire (at the very least) as well, and that's why I'm recommending to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the LA Clippers. |
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06-08-21 | Hawks +5.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawks destroyed the 76ers in Game 1. Well, they did for three quarters anyways, and then they took the foot off the gas and allowed Philly to make a game of it. Atlanta never trailed though and I think the Hawks have a legimtate shot at taking Game 2 as well. Atlanta looked especially good on the defensive side for three quarters. The pick: Is 76ers big man Joel Embiid back to 100% health? He wasn't in top form in Game 1 and the uncertainty in Game 2 is definitely not going to help this 76ers offense. When Embiid is in the line-up, the offense is run through him, but his injury makes it awkward and difficult to game-plan in the short-term. The Hawks are 100% healthy, hungry and Nate McMillan has been brilliant in making adjustments from game to game and I expect him to have another masterpiece planned tonight. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Hawks. |
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06-06-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting an absolute war until the final horn. In fact, this game could even go to extra's, that's how competitive it's been. LA's only averaed 108 points here during the playoffs, while Dallas has averaged 115 on the road. The pick: The Mavericks are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 100 points or less in. Outright victory? Of course. Dallas has already proven it can win here. In the end though, let's grab the points. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: We haven't yet really witnessed the true power of these Brooklyn Nets. Kyrie Irving, KD and James Harden only played in eight regular seaosn games together, and Brooklyn still finished No. 2 in scoring behind the Bucks. Both teams rolled through their first round opponents, but was most impressive to me was how well the Nets played defensively against the Celtics. The pick: The Heat were completely pathetic. I think Boston could have beaten Miami if they played in the first round. I expect the Nets' Big 3 to take this personally and to send an early message. A great "situational" play here, so lay the points. This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Nets. |
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06-03-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Blazers | Top | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are evenly matched, but this is the biggest spread so far in the series. I think the outright upset is very possible here, but in the end I'm going to grab the points. The Nuggets have a chance to close out this series here and now after their 147-140 OT win. Damian Lillard had a truly monster game for the Blazers, and Portland still couldn't pull off the upset. I don't see the Blazers being able to push this one to a Game 7. The pick: Nikola Jokic continues to put up impressive numbers and Denver's depth and experience is paying huge dividends right now. The Nuggets are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road dog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range. In a contest which I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Nuggets. |
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06-01-21 | Lakers +5 v. Suns | Top | 85-115 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I think LeBron James and the Lakers have more than enough fight in them to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. AD can still return to this series, and LA will be looking great heading home to Game 6 if it can somehow pull off an upset. I don't see much of a drop off here with Andre Drummond ready step and fill the void left by Davis. The pick: Chris Paul and Devon Booker are going to have their hands full with LA's elite defense. The Lakers are one of the best in defending the perimeter and I believe the visiting side will double down on that end of the court tonight. I'm not counting out King James in this big game situation. While the outright victory is possible, in the end let's grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Lakers. |