At 11:00am ET, my Early Riser is on Liberty. The line has moved and we're now getting points with Liberty. Initially, it was the other way around. That's due to Buffalo staying mostly in tact and Liberty missing some players, including its QB. Buffalo has far less losses of players but Liberty will still arguably be the more talented team on the field. The Flames still have a highly rated backup (Ryan Burger) who will make the most of his chance to finally make his first start since the 2023 season opener for Appalachian State. Burger has the support of a top tier rushing attack. Billy Lucas who ran for 663 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, will make the most of his chance to be the lead back. Four of the past 5 Bahamas Bowls have been decided by 4 points or less, including each of the past 3. This will also be close and the value lies with the underdog. Grab the points.

At 7:30pm Et, my Friday Flea Flicker is on Virginia Tech. The Golden Gophers have a 7-game bowl winning streak but this line has gotten too high. Virginia Tech will be missing some players but the same goes for Minnesota. The Golden Gophers played 12 games and only 4 of those resulted in double-digit wins. Two of those were back in September. The Hokies haven't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. Five of their 6 losses came by 7 points or less. With a 6-6 record, the Hokies really want to finish with a winning record. This is going to be another close game. Grab the points.

At 1:00pm ET, my Bowl Game Of the Year is on Texas. Happy New Year everyone! Last year, I played against the Longhorns in their New Year's Day loss against Washington. That was a very good Texas team. Washington was extremely strong though. This year, Texas is even better. Much better, as a matter of fact. Plus, the Longhorns' opponent isn't nearly as strong as last year. The Sun Devils had a great season but they don't have the talent or the athleticism to hang with Texas. The Sun Devils benefitted from a soft schedule and didn't face any teams on the level of Texas. They lost to Cincinnati and Texas Tech and they squeaked past BYU, UCF, Kansas and Texas State. The long layoff (Sun Devils haven't played since 12/7) doesn't help them either. The Longhorns, who handled Clemson on 12/21, are on a mission and they're determined to get rid of the bad taste from last year. They will score early and often and Arizona State will not be able to keep up. Lay the points.

At 12:00pm Et, my Early Riser is on Michigan. Getting snubbed for the playoff doesn't necessarily make getting up for this game easy. But even if we can assume that Alabama is 100% invested emotionally in this game, this is too many points. The Tide are down some players, their secondary is especially short-handed. Alabama beat Auburn last game but by "only" 14. Before that, the Tide got smoked 24-3 by Oklahoma. Remember the Vanderbilt loss? Michigan is 6-4 its last 10 games and 3 of the 4 losses were by 14 or less. The only one that wasn't within 14 was a game versus Oregon. Very few are giving the Wolverines a chance. They will be surprised when they find out that Michigan came to play! Grab the points.

At 2:30pm ET, my Bowl Bonanza is on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa always plays great defense. This year, the Hawkeyes were also quite strong offensively. Iowa scores 28 points per game on average. Missouri scores 29.1. Very close. On defense, Iowa allows only 20.1 points and Missouri allows 26.9. Advantage Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes have been in nearly every game. Their only dud was a loss at Michigan State and they were within one score in the final few minutes. Two of Iowa's other 4 losses came by 3 points or less. The other was at Ohio State. Missouri was blown out in 2 of its 3 losses and all of them came by more than a field goal. The Tigers recently beat out Iowa for transfer quarterback Beau Pribula (from Penn State). This afternoon, the Hawkeyes get the better of them on the field. Grab the points.

At 4:05pm ET, my selection is on the Cleveland Browns. Both teams are missing a number of players. Neither will be going to the playoffs. So, this game means nothing, in terms of the standings. The Dolphins say they want to play hard and win. But they just got eliminated and that's going to be difficult. The Browns have been eliminated for some time now. So, they're at least used to it. Playing at Cleveland, this is their chance at a victory for the home fans. After this, they have a road game at Baltimore. The Dolphins are only 2-5 on the road and have no business laying points, given their situation. Play on Cleveland.

At 1:00pm ET, my selection is on the New England Patriots. The Chargers need the game and the Patriots do not. The Chargers have a star quarterback and a big name coach. The Patriots have a rookie QB and a first year head coach. With the Patriots off 5 straight losses, not many are willing to back the underdog. The Patriots haven't quit though. If you haven't been paying attention, you may not have noticed. They nearly upset Buffalo last game, one of the best teams in the league. They are still fighting and now they get an early game against a warm weather west coast based team. This is their chance to get a home win and to do something memorable which will have an effect on the playoff race. The Patriots are 2-6 their last 8 but 4 of the losses were by 6 or less. Grab the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my TNF Game Of the Year is on Chicago. We've got Seattle playing a must win game against a Chicago team which has lost 9 in a row. Unless they're from Chicago, not too many recreational bettors are likely to want anything to do with the Bears. This is not an easy spot for Seattle though and the Bears are going to view this is a big game. This is their chance to be relevant. Seattle knows that even if it wins this game, it might not matter. The Seahawks also know that playing on the road, on a short week through Christmas, will not be easy. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith said this: "We got a tough Chicago team on the road. I know their record isn't the greatest, but if you watch film on those guys, they got a tough team with a lot of talent. We got to be ready coming off a short week, traveling on Christmas. Guys got to get their minds right." The Bears might be 0-7 on the road but they are still 4-4 at home. I will take the points, as this will likely be a close game. But I was tempted to go money-line, as I've got the Bears scoring the upset! Play on Chicago. 

At 1:00 pm Et, my AFC Game Of the week is on Pittsburgh. The Chiefs have been finding ways to win all year. Their good fortune will run out on Christmas Day, at Pittsburgh. Both teams have had to deal with the same schedule. They're each playing their 5th game in December. This will be a very short week for both. With that difficult schedule and short week, playing at home should make things a little easier. The Steelers have been much better at home all season. They've beaten Baltimore here. They're 5-1 here compared to 5-4 on the road. The Chiefs are tough to beat anywhere but their only loss came on the road. The only other time that Tomlin's team was off consecutive losses, the Steelers responded with a 32-13 win. Grab the points.

At 8:00pm ET, my December Bowl Game Of the Month is on South Florida. San Jose State had a really fine season. They had very few returning starters and a new head coach. Going 7-5 and getting to a bowl game should be considered to be a successful season, no matter what happens here. Laying more than a field goal against a USF team which is arguably more talented than they are is a tall order though. The Spartans weren't necessarily expected to get to a bowl but the Bulls absolutely were. After a 2-4 start to the season, it didn't look good for the Bulls. They showed a lot of resolve though and won 4 of their final 6 to get here. With a 6-6 record, they badly want to win this game and finish with a winning record instead of a losing one. I won with the Bulls in their Bowl game last year, mentioning how important winning the bowl was to the USF program. You might remember that game, they were underdogs and they beat Syracuse 45-0! Byrum Brown threw three touchdown passes and became the second USF quarterback with 4,000 total yards in a season. Brown has been out since September but has been working hard to get back. With or without Brown, this USF team is coming here on a mission to secure another victory. The Spartans are off 3-point win, their 3rd game decided by 4 or less. Grab the points.

At 1:00pm Et, my Revenge Game Of the Year is on the Cleveland Browns. If asked, both Browns' fans and Bengals' fans would probably say that Pittsburgh is their biggest rival. (The Steelers would say that their biggest rival is the Ravens.) That doesn't mean that these 2 Ohio-based NFC North rivals don't share a special type of hatred for each other. The Browns season might be over but misery loves company. They can do serious damage to the Bengals' chances by beating them on Sunday. At the same time, they will exact revenge from an earlier loss at Cleveland. The Browns had a 336-223 edge in yards in that 21-14 October loss. They dominated time of possession and limited the Bengals to 12 first downs. The reality is that the Bengals aren't likely going to make the playoffs, even if they win this game. They need to win all 3 of their games. They need to also have either the Broncos are the Chargers lose out. Additionally, they would still need both Miami and Indianapolis to lose at least one game. The Browns don't care about all that. They know that if they win on Sunday that Cincinnati will not be going to the playoffs. That'll be the sweetest type of revenge. Grab the points.

At 8:00pm ET, my Friday Flea-Flicker is on Notre Dame. Indiana has enjoyed a heck of a season. Congrats to the Hoosiers. They were exposed in their loss to Ohio State though and a road game against a very good Notre Dame team on a 10-game winning streak is going to pose similar problems. Indiana is good on both sides of the ball but Notre Dame is even better. All 11 Irish wins came by at least 7 points and 10 of them were by double-figures. Irish will win this by `10+. Lay the points.

At 12:00 ET, my Early Riser is on Jacksonville State. In what's likely to be a close game, I'm taking the points with Jacksonville State. There are quite a few Jacksonville State players in the transfer portal which has caused this line to climb. Last year, players in the portal didn't play in the bowl game for the Gamecocks. They'll miss at least a few but some may play this season. They've still got some really good ones though and the remaining players are determined to finish what they started. The Gamecocks are without their coach but the same goes for the Bobcats. The Gamecocks are off a dominant victory. They won 8 games in a row at one point this season. They are thinking upset. Grab the points.

At 9:00pm ET, my selection is on West Virginia. The Mountaineers aren't getting much respect by the oddsmakers or by the betting public. That's partly because they just got demolished by Texas Tech in their regular season finale, a result which led to the firing of their coach. That Texas Tech result left a bad taste in the Mountaineers' mouths and they it will serve as motivation for this game. Even Wyatt Milum, their All-Big 12 lef tackle and a possible first round NFL pick wants to play: "I plan on playing," Milum said. "It's up to the coaches how much I play. I wanted to finish the season out with the guys." he said. "I felt that would be the best thing to do. So that's the direction I'm going with that." Even if he doesn't play much, its that mindset which WVU is bringing into this game. Unsettled business. The Mountaineers won 30-10 in last year's bowl. They will give the Tigers more than they can handle. Grab the points.

At 1:00 PM ET, my AFC Game Of The Year is on the Tennessee Titans. On Monday night, the whole world was reminded of how dangerous the Burrow/Chase duo is. They were the main story-line and took attention away from the fact that the Bengals defense remains atrocious. They couldn't stop the Cowboys running game. Nor could stop the Cowboys passing game. The 27.7 points allowed per game is the 4th worst in the NFL, 2nd worst in the AFC. (The Raiders allow 27.8 ppg.) The Bengals allow 365.5 yards per game, 7th worst in the NFL. The Cowboys, playing with Prescott, Tennessee allows just 291.8 yards per game, 2nd best in the NFL and best in the AFC. The Bengals are off the big Monday night win and before that they had a big division game against the Steelers. Next up is another division game against instate rival Cleveland. A road game against the Titans, on a short week, is going to spell trouble. Even the Titans will be able to move the ball against this Bengal defense. They'll want this game more and they'll play harder. Give me the points!

At 1:00pm ET, my NFL Game Of The Year is on Tampa Bay. Excellent setup for the Buccaneers. The Bucs have gone through their low point, 4 straight losses, and come out on the other side. They're off consecutive victories and are now in a dogfight with the Falcons for the NFC South division lead. You'd have to forgive the Raiders if they don't really care about Tampa. The Raiders just put everything they had into beating the rival Chiefs, the defending world champions. They deserved to win but didn't. The kicker Daniel Carson deserves some of the blame but this is a 2-10 team which finds ways to lose. After coming so close to defeating the champs, the Raiders won't have much left in the tank on Sunday. When the Bucs win, they've shown that they can win big. They gashed the Giants 30-7. They smashed the Saints 51-27. They obliterated the Eagles 33-16 and they waxed Washington 37-20. Each of their home wins have come by more than 14. Before the close defeat at KC, the Raiders last 3 losses all came by double-digits. Lay the points.

At 8:00 PM ET, my Conference Championship Game Of the Year is on Clemson. Dabo Swinney and the Tigers aren't happy. They're not happy with themselves for losing to South Carolina last week and they're not happy with hearing everyone talking about them backing in here. (After losing against the Gamecocks, they wouldn't be in this game if not for Syracuse upsetting Miami last week.) Swinney will use the talk to motivate his team. They're going to mess everything up (for the playofs) when they win too, as Clemson would then get the automatic berth leaving SMU's fate to be determined by the selection committee. Swinney had this to say: "We didn't accomplish all of our goals during the regular season, but we've got two goals left: Win the conference and win the closer. If we do that, we'll be national champions. We were the first 15-0 national championship team," Swinney said of the 2018 season. "Maybe we can be the first three-loss national championship team. Boy, that would upset some people." SMU's had a great season but Clemson has the talent to match the Mustangs and the Tigers experience here can't be overlooked. The Tigers have won eight of the last ten ACC championships. Don't forget that this game is played in Chalotte, which is only a couple hours away from Clemson. SMU is playing more than 1000 miles away from home. Grab the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my CUSA Championship Flea Flicker is on WKU. These teams just played a close game at Western Kentucky on November 30th. The Hilltoppers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won 19-17, as a 1-point favorite. Can they beat the Jaguars twice in less than a week? That's definitely not a given, these teams are very evenly matched! With the game at Amfirst Stadium, most aren't given the Hilltoppers much of a chance. The line climbed from its opener. In what should be another tightly contested game, that extra line value is a big deal. WKU got blown out at Alabama but had a couple of very close losses, including a 1-point setback at Boston College. Last week's game was decided by 2 points and last year's game was decided by only 3. Grab the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my NFC North Game Of The Year is on Detroit. The NFC North has 3 of the best teams in the NFC. The Lions, Vikings and Packers all have 9 or more wins. No single team in the NFC South has more than 6. Only Seattle, which has 7, has more than 6. Of the 3 NFC North teams with 9 or more, the Lions stand alone at the top with 11. They beat the Packers at Lambeau and now they will seize control of the division by completing the series sweep. I've been around a lot of years and this may be the best Lions team I can remember. (This is their best record through 12 games in team history.) They've won 10 straight. Other than a game at Philadelphia, the Packers have faced some weak teams on the road. Their 4 other road games came against teams who are a combined 15-33, none of them above .500. They won't benefit from the elements at Lambeau and will be exposed by a superior Lions team. Lay the points.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC Game Of The Year is on Minnesota. This line could and should be higher. Minnesota is better on both sides of the ball and is playing at home. The Vikings got up against the Bears last week and let the lead slip away. They found a way to win their 4th straight and are now 9-2 on the season. Arizona went the other way, losing 16-6 to Seattle. Those teams are now tied atop the NFC West, each with 6-5 records. QB Murray got hurt in the loss at Seattle. He's expected back but might not be quite right and he may be susceptible to getting hurt again. He's obviously very important for Arizona but they're in trouble even with him. The Vikings have outscored opposing teams by 77 points this season. Arizona has outscored teams by just 8 points. Even assuming Murray and the Arizona offense is fine, the Cardinal secondary is going to struggle against a dangerous Viking attack. The Cardinals are 4-2 at home but 2-3 on the road. All 3 road losses came by 6 or more points. Off the game on the West Coast at Seattle in the Pacific Northwest, they now play an early game, their 2nd straight on the road. When they played 2 straight road games earlier, they lost the 2nd won 34-13. The Vikings can win anywhere. Their only home loss came by 2 points to the 10-1 Lions. All 4 home wins came by at least 6 points. The Vikings need to keep winning and they will. Lay the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my SEC GOW is on LSU. The Sooners are a strong team but today's setup favors the Tigers. Ripe for a letdown, Oklahoma comes off an emotional, bowl-clinching win over Alabama. That was at home. The Sooners are 1-2 on the road, 0-2 their last 2. Both losses came by 7 or more points. The Tigers have also had some issues on the road but they are 5-1 at home. LSU got on track last game and will be looking to build off the Vanderbilt win, which had snapped a 3-game skid. The Tigers are breaking out alternate purple uniforms for this game, which is Senior Night. They will celebrate by defeating the Sooners by 10+ points.

At 3:30pm ET, my #1 ACC Game Of The Month is on SMU. The Mustangs are one of the top teams in the country and they are going to show the world that today. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said: "You've got the College Football Playoff, so every game matters. That's what's so cool about it now. The regular season is important. We'd like to finish well in everything we do, particularly on Saturday, to finish off the regular season, continue our momentum into the following week. Hopefully, continue to show the committee and others that we're worthy of continuing to play this year." The Mustangs are 10-1 on the season and their only loss was out of conference, a 3-point setback to BYU at the start of the season. They've been dismantling ACC teams and the Golden Bears are just the next one in line. Cal is off an emotional win over its biggest rival and that clinched a bowl. That's a tough situation and they will get blown out by the better and more motivated team this afternoon. Lay the points.

At 12:00pm ET, my Saturday Early Riser is on UTSA. Off a 49-14 thrashing at the hands of Notre Dame, the Black Knights are still thinking about what could have been. They were starting to believe that they had a chance of running the table. Now that dream is done, their confidence is shattered and they've got their game against Navy to look ahead to. That makes this a ver difficult spot for them. They're also up against a dangerous opponent playing its best football. UTSA has won 3 straight and 4 of 5. The Roadrunners last 2 losses came by 1 point and by 2 points. UTSA won its last game here by 3 points, in OT. Grab the points.

At 8:00pm ET, my #1 Underdog Game Of The Year is on Utah. This is a lot of points to be giving a dangerous Utah team. Too many! The Utes have had a very disappointing season. The same goes for the Knights though. They also hoped for a lot more. They're off consecutive losses and are 1-7 their last 8 games. Asking them to win is asking a lot. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown is too much! The Utes still play good defense (they rank #3 in the Big 12 for points allowed and #3 for yards allowed) and still are a proud program. Three of their last 4 losses came by 3 or less and 5 of their last 6 losses came by 8 or less. This is a team which very rarely gets blown out. UCF coach Gus Malzahn said of the Utes: "They play really good defense. They hold onto the football and we're going to have to do a good job on special teams. They're really good on special teams, too." In 1-score game, give me the points with Utah.

At 12:00pm ET, my Black Friday Early Riser is on Oklahoma State. Off a costly 37-21 loss at Kansas, the Buffaloes are still thinking about what could have been. Oklahoma State is on a losing streak but is still fighting hard. Their 56-48 loss to Texas Tech was the 3rd time in 5 games that they lost by 10 or less. Freshman Maealiuaki Smith is listed as the starter for the Cowboys for Friday's game. Making his first career start, Smith had a very solid game against Texas Tech. He finished 26-of-36 for 326 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Smith also ran for a touchdown. He was calm and poised under pressure. Smith is going to lead the Cowboys offense to another big game. They'll trade points with the Buffaloes and hang within the generously high point spread. Take the points.

At 8:20pm ET, my Ground and Pound selection is on Miami. Both teams need the win. I would argue that Miami needs it more. They lose and their season is over. The Packers would still be in reasonable shape, off a loss. We know about Miami's history in the cold. The key word there is history. This is a new team and a new day. The Dolphins are on a roll right now and are ready to show that they aren't the Dolphins of old. The Packers didn't fare very well with the elements in their loss to Detroit. They hammered SF last week but the 49ers were without their QB and played their worst game. Before that, GB was off 4 straight games where it failed to win by more than 3 points. Before their 3-game winning streak, the Dolphins last 2 losses both came by 3 or less. I think Miami wins outright in the cold and shocks the world but I'm also expect a close game and having a few extra points to work with is an added bonus. Play on Miami.

At 7:30pm ET, my AAC Game Of The Month is on Memphis. Tulane was much better than Memphis at the betting window this season. The Green Wave were 9-2 versus the spread and the Tigers were 5-5-1. Both teams were 9-2 straight-up though. Tulane has been crushing a lot of teams but nobody has done that to Memphis. The Tigers' 2 losses both came by 12 points or less. They'd be a perfect 14-0 ATS if they were getting this many points every game! Entering the season, Memphis was rated higher than Tulane by some. The Tigers are giving nothing away talent-wise. These teams are at the top of the AAC for wins the last five years and the last 3 meetings were all decided by 10 or less. This game is also going to be close. Grab the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Game Of The Week is on Toledo. Akron beat Kent State last week. That's expected though, as the Golden Flashes are terrible and every team beats them. The Zips are still a bad team themselves. They are 3-8 overall. They lost their last game here overall. Off a loss to Ohio last game, Toledo is 7-4. The Rockets have done a great job at responding to losses as they were 3-0 straight up and 2-1 versus the spread after their previous 3 defeats. They have beaten Akron 4 straight times and none of those games were remotely close. Scores were 49-14, 45-28, 48-21 and 48-17. Superior on both sides of the ball, another big win is in store for Toledo tonight. Lay the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my Ground and Pound selection is on Baltimore. John Harbaugh has gotten the better of Jim in each of the previous 2 Harbaugh Bowls, one in the playoffs and one in the regular season. This time, Jim has home field advantage for the first time. It's not going to be enough! The Chargers have been playing well but John's Ravens are still the better team. Of course, Jim wants to beat his brother and of course the Chargers want and need the win. John wants to win, too though, as do the Ravens. There will be no motivation advantage either way! The Ravens average 430 yards per game and the Chargers average 326. Baltimore scores more than 30 ppg and LA averages only 22. Lay the short number with John Harbaugh and the Ravens!

At 8:20pm ET, my SNF Game Of The Month is on the LA Rams. Philadelphia is in a difficult scheduling spot. The Eagles are off back-to-back divisional victories and they've got a showdown at Baltimore ahead of them. With a small cushion atop the NFC East and only Washington to worry about, they may overlook the Rams. The Rams don't have that luxury as they in a 4-team dogfight in the NFC West. The Eagles are getting a lot of respect for their 6-game winning streak but the Rams have won 4 of their last 5 themselves. Matthew Stafford is 4-2 in his career versus the Eagles and he has 12 touchdown passes against only one interception. Rams coach Sean McVay said of the Eagles: "We have a lot of respect for this group. But you know, these are the moments that you love as a competitor. This is what is the best part of the NFL." He will have the Rams ready to go and they will score the upset on Sunday Night Football!

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC South Game Of The Year is on Tennessee. The Texans are a solid football team but there are still opportunities to go against them. I won with the Jets when they defeated the Texans on Halloween and this is another strong spot to play against. Houston plays on a short week after defeating instate rival Dallas on Monday Night football. These teams tend to play close games. The Texans did handle the Titans easily at the end of last season but the previous 7 meetings were all decided by single digits. In 11 games this season, Monday's win over the Cowboys marked only the 2nd time that Houston has beaten a team by more than 6 points. Playing in the AFC South, where every other team is below .500, the Texans don't have any urgency to win. They will face a Titans team which ranks 1st in the AFC (2nd in NFL) in terms of yards allowed per game and which is first in pass defense. This is just Tennessee's 2nd divisional game. The first was decided by a field goal and this one will also be close. Take the points.

At 7:45pm ET, my SEC Game Of The Month is on LSU. From an ATS perspective, Vanderbilt has had a great season. LSU has not. The Tigers are still the better team though and tonight they will make sure everyone knows it! The Tigers are off 3 straight losses and they have Oklahoma on deck for their regular season finale. They need to restore order! Things aren't as bad as they might seem. Two of their last 3 losses were on the road and the other was versus Alabama. The Tigers are still 4-1 at home, 3 of those wins coming by 17 or more points. The Commodores are off a 28-7 loss last week. They were no match for South Carolina and they won't be able to keep up with LSU. The last 2 meetings saw the Tigers win 41-7 and 66-38. Lay the points.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC North Game Of The Year is on Chicago. Some might think that I need to have my head checked to back the Bears in a game against the Packers. The Bears have dropped 3 in a row. They looked bad against the Patriots. They just fired their offensive coordinator. The Packers are off a bye. Green Bay has beaten the Bears 10 straight times. We need to understand that all those things are factored into the line. We're getting a lot more points than we would have been a month ago. Things change fast in the NFL. It wasn't long ago that the Bears were 4-2 and looking like a good team. They can get back there! Firing Shane Waldron was a good start. He wasn't working out. This move will help Caleb Williams. Thomas Brown has been here before and will be an upgrade. Brown was Carolina's offensive coordinator last year. With the Panthers, he took over play-calling duties for a three-week stretch in the middle of the season, when coach Frank Reich got fired. The Panthers covered the spread in 2 those 3 games with Brown calling plays, including the first, a 20-17 game at Tampa. The Packers are off a 10-point loss and before that, 7 of their previous 9 games were decided by 6 points or less. There will be no better way to quiet the voices than for the Bears to finally beat the Packers. It's going to be close and I believe they'll do it. Take the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Game Of The Year is on Akron. Given the way these teams are playing close games, this is an awful lot of points. The Huskies have seen each of their last 8 games decided by 14 or fewer points. Their only game that wasn't this season was against the Western Illinois Leathernecks. The Zips have seen each of their past 4 games decided by 11 points or less. They scored 20 or more points in all 4 of those games. The road team has won each of the past 2 meetings. Last year, NIU won big at Akron. In 2022, Akron was having a bad year and was winless in MAC play. As a matter of fact, the Zips were 1-9 and on a 9-game losing streak. They came here for a late November contest as substantial underdogs. They won outright 44-12! That game will provide them with the confidence that they can come here and shock the Huskies again. NIU has a showdown at Miami next, a big game worth looking ahead to. Even if things go badly for them, they still have a home finale against CMU to ensure bowl eligibility. Like each of the last 8 NIU games, this one will be decided by 14 or less. Grab the points.

At 10:15pm ET, my Big 12 GOM is on Utah. This year's Holy War doesn't have the setup many would have envisioned entering the season. It was Utah which was expected to be the better team. That didn't play out as BYU comes in with an undefeated record and Utah is 4-4. Don't count out the Utes though. They've won 9 of the last 10 in this series and still have an elite defense. Utah desperately needs a victory and will fight like a wounded animal. My expectation is that Utah plays its best game of the season and wins outright. A close game should also be anticipated. BYU had a recent 3-point win and Utah is off a 3-point loss. Grab the points.

At 12:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on South Florida. Navy has the better record on the season but South Florida is playing better football right now. The Midshipmen are 0-2 their last 2 games and they have been beaten by a combined score of 75-24! USF is 2-0 its last 2 games winning by a combined score of 79-46! Navy was the home team last season but the Bulls won. They held a decisive 24-11 edge in first downs. On a mission to get back to a bowl game and playing better football than the Midshipmen, the Bulls will pull off the upset on Saturday afternoon.

At 7:30pm ET, my MAC Conf. GOW is on Central Michigan. This is too many points for Bowling Green to be laying on the road against a Central Michigan team which plays much better on its home field. With an 0-4 road record, if this game was at Bowling Green, the Chippewas would be in a big trouble. They are 3-1 at home though. As a matter of fact, their only loss at Kelly/Shorts Stadium was by 2 points. Bowling Green did win by 15 at Toledo but was 1-2 in its other 3 road games and that other win was by 7. CMU's last 3 games here were decided by 2, 1 and 3 points. This is going to be another tight one. Grab the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my MNF Game Of The Month is on Tampa Bay. This is too many points to be giving a competitive Tampa Bay team. The Buccaneers are off a 5-point loss. The Chiefs are off a 7-point win. The Bucs have played 3 road games. They have 2 wins and a 6-point loss to show for them. Baker Mayfield is giving Tampa great QB play and the Bucs offense is tough to stop right now. Two of the Chiefs' 3 home games were very close. They beat Baltimore by 7, a game the Ravens were inches away from tying. They also beat the Bengals by 1 here. Eight of their past 10 games, since last year's playoffs, have been decided by 7 point or less. Nine of those 10 were decided by 10 or less. The Chiefs are happy to win the close ones. Mahomes commented: "However we have to win the football game, I'm good with it." This is going to be another close one. Grab the points.

At 1:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on Carolina. The Saints smashed the Panthers when these teams played the first time. That was in September, at New Orleans. The Saints were favored by 3.5 points. Now they are on the road and off 6 straight losses and they're laying even more points! That's because Carolina has been even worse than them. But now the Panthers are playing with divisional revenge. This see this game as a measuring stick to show how far they've come since that first game. Having been out of action, Carr may have some rust for the Saints. Bryce Young will get a 2nd straight start and will have worked off some of his own rust for the Panthers. Carolina coach Dave Canales: "I'm excited for Bryce to have the opportunity to build off some of the things he did last week." I think that is a game the Panthers will really want and it won't shock me when they pull off the upset.

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC East Game Of The Year is on Miami. The Dolphins may not have won last week's game but Tua Tagoavailoa returned and he brought the Dolphins offense back with him. They're an entirely different team with their starting QB under center. They scored 27 points last week, Tua going 28 of 38. After the game, the Dolphins star QB said that he felt good: “It feels good to be able to come back and play with my teammates to hopefully help in any way I can to get a spark going for us offensively. Or get the mojo going for the entire team. It was good today, but tough loss against a really good team." Expect Tua and the Dolphins to be ready to go against Buffalo. The Bills are returning from the West Coast. They played 3 road games in October and are dealing with a lot of injuries. Their big wins have come against weaker opposition. Their last divisional game was a hard-fought 3 point win over the Jets. The Bills won big at Miami, the game Tua got concussed, but the stats show that the Dolphins held them to 247 yards and 13 first downs. The Dolphins desperately need this game to turn their season around. They've got their leader back and will battle the Bills until the final whistle. Grab the points.

AT 4:15pm ET, my NCAA Game Of The Year is on Mississippi State. College football may feature more parity than it once did but this game will demonstrate that there is still a massive difference between the SEC and a school from a lesser conference. Or, in this case, no conference at all. (Massachusetts will join the MAC next season but is currently an Independent.) The Minutemen are a little better than they used to be. They had back to back 1-11 seasons in 2021 and 2022. Last year, they got to 3-9. This year, they're 2-6. That's as many wins as they'll get this year though and if you look at their 2 victories, you see that they both came at home and that they were against Wagner and Central Conn. State. They're both FCS schools. The Minutemen are 0-4 on the road, 3 of the 4 road losses were by 14 or more points. They faced one SEC opponent (Missouri) and they lost 45-3. This is a game where the Bulldogs can finally snap their losing streak. They've had a long season and first year coach Jeff Lebby will be fully focused on the opportunity which presents itself to them here. The Minutemen can't effectively stop the run and Mississippi State will be gaining big chunks at a time. The Bulldogs have only been favored by more than 14 points once this season and they crushed Eastern Kentucky by a 56-7 score. They're 4-1 ATS the past 5x times that they were favored at home by more than 14. With a rare reprieve from SEC play, the Bulldogs will be more than happy to run up the score against an outmatched opponent. Lay the points.

At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on Air Force. One look at the records tells you that Army has been much better than Air Force this season. That's reflected in this rather large point spread. The talent gap isn't as big as the spread suggests. At the beginning of the season, a popular publication ranked Air Force #81 and Army #109. That clearly wasn't very accurate but it does provide a little context. Think about the fact that Air Force was favored by -18 points when these teams played just last season. (Army scored 13 points off turnovers and pulled off the upset.) None of the past 10 meetings had spreads this big and none of those 10 games were decided by more than 21 points. We saw last year that you can throw the records out the window to some extent when these teams meet. A 2-6 Army team won outright on the road against a top 20 Air Force team with an 8-0 record. At the time Army linebacker Leo Lowin said this: “We kind of were overlooked for sure. We haven’t had a great season. We saw this as a huge opportunity to turn that around, turn that in our favor." The roles are reversed and an overlooked Air Force team sees this as an opportunity to get some payback from last season. This will be a close game. Grab the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my Friday Flea-Flicker is on Georgia State. Close games have started to become the norm with these teams. Connecticut won by 7 last week after losing by 3 the previous week. That's 3 straight games decided by single-digits. The Panthers are on a losing streak but 2 of those last 3 losses were by 7 points. These teams faced each other last season. Favored by 2.5 points, the Panthers jumped out to a 28-0 lead and won 35-14. The Panther had a 250-50 edge in rushing yards. UConn is much improved from last year and will have better success. Not enough to win by more than a touchdown though. The close games both these teams have been involved with recently will continue with this game coming down to the wire. Grab the points.

At 7:30pm ET, my TD Club is on Texas State. The Bobcats have had this game circled since the schedule came out. Not only is it a nationally televised showdown versus one of the best teams in the SBC but its also a chance to exact some revenge from last year and from years of losing to the Rajin' Cajuns. Louisiana has owned this rivalry for years. Last year, the Bobcats were finally in position to defeat the Cajuns. They were up 20-7 in the 2nd quarter and they still had a 30-28 lead late in. the 4th quarter. They lost 34-30. Texas State had 530 yards of offense, more than 100 more than Louisiana. Tonight's game will be at UFCU (Bobcat) Stadium which will provide the Bobcats with an edge. Setting attendance records this season, UFCU Stadium has become a true home field advantage for the Bobcats. UTSA's Head Coach Jeff Traylor called the student section “deafening.” The Bobcats thrashed Arkansas State their last game here and they will finally knock off the hate Cajuns tonight. Lay the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my NFL Non-Conf. GOW is on the New York Giants. We're getting extra points with the Giants because of them being on the road. But they've been terrific on the road. In 3 road games, the G-Men are 2-1. They won at Seattle. They won at Cleveland. Their only road loss came by just 3 points, at Washington. The Steelers are riding high off their big wins over the Raiders and Jets. Their first 5 games were all decided by 10 or less though. They're 0-1 against the NFC East. Four meetings over the years were all decided by 10 or less. We saw that the Jets couldn't even beat the Patriots yesterday. So the Steelers having a big win against the Jets wasn't that special. Same with their win over the Raiders, who were really struggling at the time. They will have a far more difficult time with a Giants team which has talent and which is hell-bent on bouncing back with a victory. Grab the points.

At 8:20pm ET, my NFC Game Of the Month is on San Francisco. Both teams were probably hoping to be in a better place right now. Dallas started the season with a convincing win at Cleveland. Since then, America's Team is 2-3, just 1-3-1 versus the spread. The Cowboys had a bye last week but are still licking their wounds after a 47-9 shellacking at the hands of the Detroit Lions. The 49ers are off a loss to the defending world champions. Purdy didn't play well and they were still in position to win. A visit from the Cowboys will bring out the best in Purdy and the 49ers. San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS in 3 meetings with Dallas since January 2022. Purdy was 17 of 24 with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the last game. SF had a 25-8 edge in first downs. The Dallas run defense is a mess right now. Jordan Mason will have a big game and that will take pressure off Purdy. Shanahan out-coaches McCarthy and the 49ers beat the Cowboys for a 4th straight time.

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC North Game Of The Year is on the Cleveland Browns. One never wants to see a player injured and I'm sorry for Deshaun Watson that he got hurt. It happened though. (Some Browns fans actually cheered about the injury.) That gives us some extra value with the Browns betting line this week. We're getting more than a touchdown with t the home underdog in a bitter divisional rivalry. Better still, the Browns are going to be better for the change at the quarterback position. Watson has been a disaster for him. They'd invested too much in him to pull the plug but now that their hand has been forced, they can move on. For now, Jameis Winston will be an upgrade and will breathe some life into the Browns. The Ravens are playing well but they aren't unbeatable. Three of their wins came by 7 or less and their only divisional game was decided by 3 points. The last h2h meeting was decided by 2 points, a 33-31 win by the Browns. They have beaten Baltimore outright 3 of the past 5 meetings. Only 1 of the last 7 meetings has resulted in a Baltimore win of more than 6. This game will come down to the wire and the Browns have a great chance at the upset. Grab the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my CFB Underdog Game Of The Week is on West Virginia. Line movement has provided us additional value with the visiting Mountaineers. WVU is off bad losses to Iowa State and K-State. Those teams are both better than the one they'll face today. They've played well in their 2 road games, blowing out Oklahoma State and losing by 4 at Pittsburgh. Though the Mountaineers have some injury issues, the Wildcats' injuries may be even worse. Should Greene not be able to go at QB for WVU, Arizona native Nicco Marchiol will be ready to go. Coach Brown said: “He’s going to get a bunch of reps, so if his number’s called he’ll be ready and I expect him to play at a high level." Arizona will be without linebacker Jacob Manu, one of the team's captains, and offensive tackle Rhino Tapa'atoutai Last week, the Wildcats got the news that starting safeties Gunner Maldonado and Treydan Stukes likely were done for the season. Arizona is off 3 straight losses and has dropped 4 of its last 5. The last 2 losses were by a combined score of 75-26. They have no business being favored by more than a field goal in this game. Grab the points.

AT 5:00pm ET, my Sun Belt Conf. Game Of the Year is on South Alabama. UL Monroe has the better record. But South Alabama is a substantial favorite. Hmmm. No, there's nothing fishy going on. The Jaguars are just a much stronger team. When these teams played last year, the Jaguars had a +339 edge in yards! (589-250) They were up 31-0 by the 2nd quarter and won 55-7! Bryant Vincent has done a terrific job in his first year coaching ULM and has the Warhawks improving faster than expected. But they aren't yet ready to erase such a gap in one season. South Alabama can beat you both ways. On offense, the Jaguars scored 87 points in a game earlier this season and 48 in another. Last game they showed the defense can do it too. They held Troy to 9 points and 172 total yards, only 36 yards, on 22 carries, on the ground. Playing their best football of the season and in need of a victory, the Jaguars will be too much for ULM again this season. Lay the points.

At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on UNC. I'm always happy to take points when I feel that the underdog has a great chance to win outright. That's the case on Saturday afternoon, at Virginia. North Carolina has lost some close ones and could easily have a better record. The Tar Heels have played 2 road games and both were extremely close. They lost by 1 at Duke and they won by 2, at Minnesota. Virginia got blown out last game and is off consecutive losses. The Cavaliers are 2-2 at home but the 2 wins were against Richmond and Boston College and they were down 14-0 early and 14-6 in the 4th quarter of the BC game. Three of the past 4 meetings, including each of the past 2, were decided by 3 or less. Expect another very close game and grab the points with visiting underdogs.

At 11:00pm ET, my Friday Flea Flicker is on Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are playing a late game, a long way from home. They're dealing with injuries and they've lost 3 in a row. Despite all that, they've been tough on the road, winning at Virginia Tech and losing by 7 at Nebraska. Also, two of their 3 losses were by 7 or less. As a matter of fact, 4 of their last 5 games were decided by 7 or less. The same can be said of the Trojans. They are off 3 straight losses and 4 of their last 5 games were decided by a touchdown or less. They are 1-4 in Big Ten play. Though banged up, these Knights are going to fight with everything they've got. USC's run defense is mediocre, allowing an average of 138.1 rushing yards per game, sixth in the Big Ten. Rutgers can take advantage. With both teams playing such close games, I will take the generous points with the visitors.

At 8:00pm ET, my CUSA Game Of the Week is on UTEP. This is what I said about UTEP last week: "The Miners knew that they faced some challenges under first year coach Scotty Walden. They've endured those struggles and will ultimately be better for them. They've been fighting hard and a Wednesday home game against FIU provides them the opportunity to break through with a victory. The Panthers have only won 1 game by more than 7 points and that was over a month ago, at home. They are 0-3 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 16.3 points. The Miners won 27-14 at FIU last season and they smashed the Panthers 40-6 here in 2022. The Panthers need this win to help their bowl chances but the Miners need it to avoid being the first team eliminated from bowl contention. They know that a bowl isn't in their future (as the upcoming schedule includes a road game at Tennessee) but they are going to go all out to get that first win. They'll be able to trade points with FIU and have an excellent shot at the upset." Sure enough, the Miners got that upset. Off the 30-21 win, rewarded for their hard work, they are suddenly feeling good about themselves. LA Tech is not feeling nearly so good. The Bulldogs are off a gut-wrenching 33-30 Double OT loss. They are 1-4 their last 5 games and 2-8 their last 10. One of the 2 wins was against Nicholls State and LA Tech didn't even win that one very easily. With the Miners suddenly feeling good about things and the Bulldogs off a double-OT loss, I smell another upset. Grab the points.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC East Game Of The Year is on the Philadelphia Eagles. The last time that these teams played each other, Saquon Barkley scored the first 2 touchdowns of the game. With Barkley paving the way, the Giants got off to a 24-0 lead and won 27-10. Prior to that, the Eagles had beaten the Giants 5 straight times, each win coming by more than 5 points. The problem for the Giants, or at least one of them, is that Saquon is now going to be playing against them. He's already got 574 yards with five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) in five games this season. Complementing Barkley, the Eagles got top receiver A.J. Brown back last week and he immediately had a huge game. The Giants could use Barkley back, as their offense is a mess. They're averaging 16 points a game, fewest in the NFC. The NY defense has been good but not good enough to make up for the lack of offense. The Giants scored only 7 points last week. Their kicker missed both FG's. The team has lost some confidence in him and he will have lost some himself. The Giants have been decent on the road but they are 0-3 at Met Life Stadium. Look for the home fans to turn hostile with Barkley and the Eagles walking away with a convincing win and cover.

At 9:30am ET, my Early Riser is on Jacksonville. Both teams are 1-5 but the Jaguars are a much stronger team. Though time is running out on them fast, they still haven't given up on the season. New England is in a different situation as the Patriots never really expected to contend. This was always going to be a rebuilding year. The Jaguars have been in England for some time and are very much adjusted. They lost last week and will not want to come home from the trip empty-handed. The Jaguars at least won a game 2 weeks ago. The Patriots haven't won a game since Week 1. Rookie Drake Maye will be making just his 2nd start. The Patriots have a long list of questionable or injured players. They've been blown out in 3 of their last 4 losses and that's what's in store for them again on Sunday morning.

At 3:30 ET my AAC Game Of The Year is on Rice. Tulane destroyed UAB in its last game. That result is one of the reasons that this line is so high. Its an over-reaction, in my strong opinion. Tulane does deserve to be favored but not by nearly this much. We've got an over-valued team against one which is flying under the radar. The Owls are playing much better now than they were at the beginning of the season but their lines haven't adjusted yet. They beat UTSA last game and they lost by only 1 in their previous game. On the subject of close games, take a look at the scores from the last three meetings between these teams. Last year, it was 30-28. Tulane may be better but Rice arguably also has a better team this year than last. Two previous meetings were 49-47 and 17-13. With a big showdown versus North Texas on deck, the Green Wave may look past the Owls. I'm anticipating another close game. Playing their best football, grab the points with the upset-minded visitors.

At 12:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on East Carolina. Both Army and Navy are having strong campaigns. That should make for a good battle at the end of the end of the season. Until then, their strong seasons have brought some big lines along with them. In this case, the Black Knights are laying more than 2 touchdowns. That's too much against this competitive Pirate squad. East Carolina's loss at Charlotte on October 5th was the only blemish on a very competitive season. Prior to that, the Pirates were 3-2 with the 2 losses coming by only 13 combined points against Liberty and Appalachian State. Prior to that, their run defense was great which is highly important against Army. Having had an extra week off after the bad loss was perfect timing. The Knights get a bye after this but for now this will be 5 games in less than a month. Though these schools haven't met in many years, ECU has never lost. A close game might be just what the Knights need and they will get it. Grab the points.

At 10:15pm ET, my Friday Flea Flicker is on Oklahoma State. Obviously, its been an amazing start to the season for the Cougars. They're 6-0 straight-up and versus the spread. They have my respect. Yet, that doesn't mean that they are more talented than the Cowboys. Recall that BYU was predicted to finish 13th or 14th in the Big 12 Conference this season. The Cougars have really exceeded those expectations but they will come back to earth soon enough. The Cowboys were projected to be a top 3 team in the Big 12. They have the talent to win this game. As a mater of fact, if these teams had played here at the beginning of the year, OSU would have probably been favored. Instead, we get more than a touchdown to work with. The Cowboys have won all three prior meetings with the Cougars. Last season, Oklahoma State closed out the regular season with a 40-34 double-overtime victory over BYU. This year's Cowboys returned 19 starters from that team. They will shock many by handing the Cougars their first loss on Friday night.

At 7:00pm ET, my Thursday Hot Route is on Georgia State. We're getting more than a touchdown to work and I anticipate this being a 1-score game. Off a 1-point loss, Marshall is 2-3 its past 5 games and 1 of those wins was by 7 points. The Panthers had a first year coach who got a late start with his team. It was natural for some early season struggles but they are coming around and playing competitive football. Georgia State is off a 7-point loss. Prior to that, the Panthers had won 2 of their previous 3. The Panthers won big at Georgia State last season but the last game here was a 5-point game. Though Marshall will have success on the ground, Georgia State will be able to move the ball through the air. In what will be a competitive back and forth game, grab the points with Georgia State.

At 9:00pm ET, my Wednesday Wipeout is on UTEP. The Miners knew that they faced some challenges under first year coach Scotty Walden. They've endured those struggles and will ultimately be better for them. They've been fighting hard and a Wednesday home game against FIU provides them the opportunity to break through with a victory. The Panthers have only won 1 game by more than 7 points and that was over a month ago, at home. They are 0-3 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 16.3 points. The Miners won 27-14 at FIU last season and they smashed the Panthers 40-6 here in 2022. The Panthers need this win to help their bowl chances but the Miners need it to avoid being the first team eliminated from bowl contention. They know that a bowl isn't in their future (as the upcoming schedule includes a road game at Tennessee) but they are going to go all out to get that first win. They'll be able to trade points with FIU and have an excellent shot at the upset. Grab the points.

At 4:05 ET, my AFC West Game Of The Year is on the Los Angeles Chargers. Some might have been surprised to see the Chargers open as small road favorites. Those same people would likely have been even more confused when the line climbed and the Chargers became an even larger favorite. Rest assured, the oddsmakers got this one right. LA deserves to be favored. (Sharps would be pounding the Chargers all day if they weren't favored.) The Chargers just had a bye at the perfect time. They were off back-to-back losses and dealing with some injuries to key players. They're healthier now, well-rested and well-prepared. The Broncos are known for their defense but with 12.6 points allowed per game, it's the Chargers who come in allowing the fewest points in the NFL. On offense, though Nix has impressed as a rookie, I'll side with the far more experienced Herbert, JK Dobbins and the Chargers. We're backing what I believe to be the better team, in a situation where they are coming off a bye and where they badly need a victory. Lay the small number.

At 7:45pm ET, my SEC Game Of The Year is on Kentucky. The Commodores are off the biggest upset in school history. It was their first ever win against a #1 team and the first time that they'd beaten Alabama in 40 years. If there's ever a time for a letdown, this is it. Letdown or not, the Commodores remain winless on the road. Now they go on the road to face a Kentucky team which has beaten them 7 of the past 8 meetings including a 17-point win by the Wildcats last year. Kentucky is also off a big upset as it went on the road and knocked off Ole Miss. The Wildcats have had a bye since the game though and it wasn't as big an upset as Vanderbilt just had. Plus, Kentucky had very nearly defeated Georgia earlier. They believed that they could win at Ole Miss. Even the Vanderbilt players never dreamed of defeating the Crimson Tide. In the Wildcats last home game, they thrashed Ohio by a 41-6 score. Stoops hasn't forgotten that the Commodores pulled the upset last time here. He will make sure it doesn't happen again with his Wildcats pulling away to win by more than 20.

At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on North Carolina. If these teams had faced each other here to start the season, the Tar Heels would have been favored. Georgia Tech has over-achieved though and UNC has under-achieved. As a result, instead of having to worry about covering as a favorite, we're now rewarded with a good amount of points as an underdog. For some perspective, North Carolina was favored by 12 at Georgia Tech last season and by 21 or 22 in Chapel Hill the previous season. As a matter of fact, Georgia Tech has won outright as a double-digit underdog each of the past 3 seasons. Both the last 2 games were decided by just 4 points. The shoe is now on the other foot with the Tar Heels getting points. Former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins is now the defensive coordinator for the UNC. In addition to badly needing a victory, this game means a lot to him and the Tar Heels. They will turn the tables and win outright as underdogs.

At 10:30pm ET, my Big 12 Game Of The Month is on Utah. The Utes enjoyed a bye after their loss against Arizona. They are itching to get back on the field and will be extremely determined to avoid another loss. The Utes hope to have QB Rising back and the bye helps his chances. They've been piling up games without him though and will be fine if he doesn't play. The Utes have beaten the Sun Devils four straight times after crushing them 55-3 last season. Rising didn't play in that game and Utah still won by more than 50! The Sun Devils managed only 7 first downs and 83 yards of total offense. Utah had 26 first downs and more than 500 yards of offense. The Utes vastly superior defense will be the difference again on Friday night.

At 8:15pm ET, my Thursday Night GOM is on San Francisco. Each of these teams lost last week. Both are coming in very hungry for a win. San Francisco coughed up a double-digit 4th quarter lead, something previously unheard of under Kyle Shanahan. Everyone is focusing in on the blown lead but its also important to recognize that the 49ers were up big in the 4th and in a position to cover. The 49ers are still a well-coached Super Bowl contender. They're still very probably going to win the NFC West and winning Thursday's game in Seattle will be a big step towards that. The Seahawks are not a Super Bowl contender. They got off to a hot start, thanks partly due to a soft early schedule, but have come back down to earth. They have the youngest coach in the NFL. The 49ers average the 2nd most yards in the NFL, the most in the NFC. Not only do they average more yards than the Seahawks, they also allow less. The 49ers have won 5 straight games in the series, 2 of those coming in Seattle. All 5 victories came by more than a touchdown. Make it 6 straight after Thursday.

At 8:00pm ET, my Thursday Hot Route is on UTEP. This is a case of a mediocre team laying too many points. UTEP isn't a powerful team. The Miners have been competitive against better teams than WKU though. They got blown out in an August game at Nebraska. That was their first game though and the Huskers are far better than the Hilltoppers. Since then, no team has beaten the Miners by more than 20 points. They lost by 18 at Liberty and by 10 at Coastal Carolina. They lost by 20 against Coastal Carolina. One could make a case for all 3 of those teams being better than WKU. The Hilltoppers are off a 1-point loss and they won their previous game by 5 points. UTEP had a 3-0 lead at halftime of last year's game and lost by 8. This one will also be close. Grab the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my CUSA Game Of The Month is on Liberty. There is a serious difference in class between FIU and Liberty. Both brought back many players from last year. For Liberty, that's a good thing. The Flames were 13-0 in the regular season before losing to Oregon on New Year's Day. They're undefeated again this season. Returning a large number of starters hasn't been as helpful for FIU. The Panthers were 4-8 last season and they're 2-3 to start this year. A home loss to Monmouth says a lot about this team. They lost their only road game by 18 points and that was against rival FAU. This is a far more formidable opponent. The Flames were involved in a couple of closer games last season but by the time they got to FIU, they smashed the Panthers 38-6. Liberty had a 520 to 211 advantage in total yards, 324-135 at half. This will be another big-time blowout. Lay the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my MNF Game Of the Month is on Kansas City. The Chiefs have won some close ones and the Saints have won some blowouts. That has some people thinking the Saints are better than they really are and that the Chiefs aren't as good as they really are. Otherwise, this line could easily be -7 or higher. The Chiefs do have some injuries to a couple of key offensive weapons and that's getting a lot of attention. Mahomes still has weapons though and he and Kelce are finally on the same page again. Also, the Saints have their own injury issues that aren't getting talked about nearly so much. New Orleans tight end Taysom Hill, guard Cesar Ruiz, center Shane Lemieux, linebacker Willie Gay Jr. and defensive end Payton Turner were all ruled out and their list is much longer than that. The Saints 2 blowout wins came in the first 2 weeks. Since then, they've had a close win and a close loss. That close loss (to the division rival Falcons) in their last game was a costly one. It was a game they let get away and it will still be replaying in their minds. Off that painful loss and with another division showdown on deck, they are now taking on the world champs while playing their 2nd straight road game. The Chiefs get a bye next week. They beat Miami by 7 before their bye last season and they smashed SF 44-23 before their bye the previous year. The year before was a 10-point win over Dallas. They will be ready to do it again tonight. Lay the points.

At 4:05pm ET, my NFC West Game Of the Year is on Arizona. The 49ers are a strong team but they will have their hands full with the Cardinals on Sunday. At 1-3, Arizona is coming in desperate. The Cardinals could have a better record and have played pretty well in 3 of 4 games. Their only road game was a 6-point loss at Buffalo and they very nearly won that game. The 49ers earned a big victory last week. That was against a New England team which isn't very good. This divisional opponent has a lot more teeth and comes in needing and expecting to win. The 49ers have a plethora of injuries. Key players Fred Warner and George Kittle both missed Wednesday practice. Whether or not they play remains to be seen but either way this team is not healthy. Before the win over New England, the 49ers were off consecutive losses. Things aren't all better yet and they will get surprised by their upset-minded guests. Grab the points.

At 8:00pm ET, my Mountain West Game Of The Year is on San Diego State. The Aztecs really need this one. They kicked off the season with a big win here against a lesser opponent. That was followed by a loss to Oregon State and then back-to-back road losses. Its taken some time to adjust to their new coach and new system but they've been showing signs of improvement though and did some good things in last week's 1-point road loss. A game against Hawaii comes at the right time. The Aztecs have won 4 in a row against the Warriors. Also, playing at Snapdragon Stadium will provide the Aztecs with an important advantage. The Warriors can be tough at home but they are winless on the road. (The Warriors only road game resulted in a 31-13 loss at Sam Houston State.) In the end, homefield will make a difference and the Aztecs will come away with the important win and cover.

At 9:00pm my Hook and Ladder play is on Oregon. This game is going to get ugly right from the start. Oregon is a national title contender. The Ducks started the season slowly but they came to life in Corvallis, destroying their instate rival. The Beavers didn't put up much of a fight at all (Oregon won 49-14!) and they were at home against their arch enemy. The Spartans, who lost by 31 last week, are no better than the Beavers and they're on the road. Oregon followed up the win at OSU by winning by 21 at UCLA. With Ohio State up next, Oregon will want to build its confidence and swagger. The Ducks are will take advantage of the nationally televised game to show the entire world how good they are. They have covered 3 of their last 4 conference home openers and will win their first ever Big Ten home opener in blowout fashion.

At 8:00pm ET, my Rivalry Game Of The Year is on New Mexico State. This line is very generous given that I believe that the Aggies can easily win outright. New Mexico is 0-4. New Mexico State is 1-3. Those records were expected as the Lobos have been big underdogs in all 4 of their games while the Aggies were underdogs in 3 of theirs but favored in the other. It's true that New Mexico was more competitive in losing against their one common opponent (Fresno State) than New Mexico State was. The Lobos got to host the Bulldogs though and the Aggies has to go to Fresno. The Aggies have played really well at home. They won the game that they were supposed, a 23-16 victory over S.E. Missouri State. They rallied in the 4th quarter for the victory and that will help their confidence should this one also be close in the 4th quarter. In the Aggies other home game, they only lost by 6 points in the final minute to Liberty. That's very impressive when factoring in that Liberty was 13-0 last season and is undefeated again this year. New Mexico lost both its road games by more than 20 points. The Aggies are 7-1 versus the spread the last 8 h2h meetings and the underdog is 11-2 ATS the last 13. Though the opposition was tough, with an 0-4 record New Mexico hasn't shown it can win yet. Now the Lobos are being asked to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown. The Aggies won by 10 last year and 12 the year before that. New Mexico's last 2 wins in the series both came by single-digits. This one will be close! Grab the points.

At 7:45pm ET, my Blowout GOW is on LSU. The Tigers haven't covered a spread yet. They've won 3 in row straight up though and they have been getting better each week. They narrowly missed covering in a win at South Carolina 2 weeks ago and then the same thing happened in last week's win over UCLA. Now they face a weaker opponent which is susceptible to giving up a lot of points. South Alabama gave up 550 yards and 52 points in a loss against North Texas. The Tigers are going to have a field day offensively. The Jaguars have been scoring a lot but they haven't seen a defense like this one. Things get harder for LSU after this game. The Tigers face Ole Miss and then go on the road for 2 games. Then comes Alabama. They need to take advantage of this lesser foe and build confidence by running them out of the building. That's what will happen. They will keep piling up the points and the Jaguars will be unable to match. Statement blowout for the Tigers!

At 7:30pm ET, my Friday Hook and Ladder selection is on Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes have looked good. They comfortably took down Florida in their first game and have blown out their 3 opponents since. Those results are impressive but they've also driven the line way up. The Canes are now lying more points for this game versus Virginia Tech than they were for their game at South Florida. That's giving us great value with Hokies when considering that they have far more talent than USF. Recall that the Hokies brought back 21 starters from a team which won five of its final seven games last season. The Hokies do have 2 losses but both of those came by 7 points or less. These teams have met 4x since 2019. Those games were decided by 7, 1, 12 and 6 points. This one will also be close. Grab the big points.

At 7:30 ET, my Monday Night Football Game Of The Month is on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Always nice to get treated to 2 Monday night games! The first features the Bills hosting the Jaguars. Buffalo is 2-0 and Jacksonville is 0-2. Both teams are 1-1 versus the pointspread. The Jaguars won't panic but they know they need this game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence said this: "We can't hit the panic button, but we've got to have some real conversations. We've got too good of a team to come out here and perform two weeks in a row like this. I mean, these games are precious and you don't get them back, and we're 0-2 to start the year and it's not going to get any easier. We'd better fix it quick." The Jaguars have a couple of ex-Bills on the roster and they are going to be extra motivated to take on their old team. Josh Allen didn't have to do much last week against Miami. The Dolphins' QB got knocked out. Buffalo benefitted from short fields and just had to run the ball. Things will be different on Monday. The Jaguars beat the Bills in 2021 and 2023, both very close games. That's 7 straight h2h meetings decided by 7 or less. This will be another close one and I'll take the points!

At 3:30 ET, my Big Ten GOY is on Michigan. The Wolverines' loss to Texas really put a bad taste in a lot of bettors' mouths about Michigan. Many wrote them off as a bad team after that loss. That's not really fair though. The Longhorns are very powerful this season and the Wolverines have a lot of new players and a new coach. The Wolverines had beaten Fresno State by 20 the previous week, when laying 20.5. Last week, they shook off the Texas loss by defeating Arkansas State by 10. Now, they get to reset and start Big Ten play. USC has been playing well but the defense is still nowhere near the level of the Texas defense. The Wolverines are going to have a much easier time moving the ball against the Trojans than they had against the Longhorns. The new players and coach have had a chance to play together and last week's bounce-back victory will help bring them together. The run-defense was dominant. This is the first true road game for USC. LSU was a good team but the Trojans haven't faced a defense like this one. In a game which will likely be close, the Wolverines' superior defense will ultimately win the day. Play on Michigan

At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on Florida. It's been a bad start for the Gators. A talented team, they are just 1-2 to start the season. Losses were against Miami and Texas A&M. Fans aren't happy and coach Billy Napier is starting to feel the heat. Getting away will be good for them and Starkville is a great place for a first road game. The Bulldogs are a young team with a 1st year coach. They just got beaten 41-17 here by Toledo, their worst non-conference home loss in nearly years. Even with some injury issues, the Gators have far more talent, depth and experience. They will play their best game of the season and get their season back on track. Play on Florida

AT 8:15pm ET, my NFL GOW is on the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta stumbled 18-10 at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1. That wasn't what they wanted but I think the Falcons will bounce back and keep this one competitive with a really decent shot at the upset. Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins looked out of sorts with his new offense, but the veteran will settle down here in his second start. Bijan Robinson rushed for 68 yards on 18 carries. The silver-lining? Clearly it was Atlanta's defense. And now Atlanta faces this suspect Philly defense. Though I won with them, the Eagles looked anything but dominant in their 34-28 win over the Packers from Brazil in Week 1. Jalen Hurts had 278 yards passing, two TDs, but also two INTs. Now Hurts will be without his favorite receiver with A.J. Brown on the sidelines. Philly also committed seven penalties and was just 4-of-14 on third down. Coming back from Brazil is a new dynamic and may not be as easy as people expect. Give me the points with the Atlanta Falcons. 

At 1:00pm ET, my Sunday Super Blitz is on Carolina. The Chargers may look easy at first glance but I'm going to recommend caution. In fact, I feel that they're getting too much respect from the oddsmakers in their first road game of the season. Jim Harbaugh got his first win as head coach of the Chargers in last week's 22-10 home victory over the Raiders. He's not going to work miracles immediately though and now he hits the road for two straight, before a home game with the Chiefs. The Chargers are a different team than they were last year, but it's still significant to note that they were just 3-5 SU on the road last season. Carolina fell 47-10 at New Orleans as a 3.5-point dog, but I expect Bryce Young to be a lot sharper here in Week 2 at home. Last year, in Week 1, the Giants got blown out 40-0. Everyone was really down on them but they came back and won outright in Week 2. The Steelers were another team which was blown out in Week 1 and won outright in Week 2. As for the Panthers, they lost by 14 in Week 1 and were far more competitive in a 3-point Week 2 loss. The morale of the story is not to over-react to a Week 1 blowout loss. Carolina will be better and will get us at least the cover on Sunday afternoon.

At 6:00pm ET, my CUSA GOY is on Liberty. These teams are very much at opposite ends of the Conference-USA spectrum. Liberty may be the most talented team in the conference and is the clear favorite to finish on top. The Flames were 13-0 last season and this year's team returned 14 starters. Last year, they won by 14 at UTEP. This year, they host the Miners. Plus, this year's UTEP team isn't nearly as good as last year's. Not only do the Miners have a new coach but they only returned 9 starters. Its a rebuilding year and that's been evident through the first 2 games. Getting smashed 40-7 at Nebraska was expected but the Miners also just lost at home to Southern Utah. The Flames were tested at New Mexico State last week but came roaring back in the 4th quarter. Off that close call, they will make sure to keep their foot on the gas the whole way here. This will result in a one-sided destruction. Play on Liberty.

At 3:30 ET, my Rivalry Rout is on WVU. Not surprisingly, West Virginia stumbled in its 34-12 Week 1 home loss to Penn State. The Mountaineers bounced back nicely in last week's 49-14 home win over Albany. Now 1-1, I think WVU carries over that offensive momentum here in Pittsburgh. The Panthers are 2-0, beating Kent State 55-24 in Week 1, before last week's 28-27 win at Cincinnati as a 2-point dog. Give them credit for the comeback win but they were a little fortunate. The Backyard Brawl" and it's a highly anticipated rivalry which was renewed in 2022 after and 11-year break. This year's game will have a big impact on the rest of the season for both teams. WVU RB CJ Donaldson has 170 yards rushing and two TDs already this season and I think a relatively inexperienced Pittsburgh defense (only 4 starters from last year) will have difficulty slowing him down. He ran for 102 yards and a TD in last year's win. The Mountaineers held Pitt to 6 points and 211 total yards in that game. WVU coach Neal Brown will have his team ready to play once again. Let's go WVU!

At 12:00pm, my Early Riser is on Wisconsin. I think that the Badgers will comfortably cover the generous number. This is the first meeting between the schools since 2015. The Badgers will be excited for the chance to host mighty Alabama. These opportunities don't come often as this is the first time the Tide played here since 1928 and the first time they played a road game vs a Big Ten team since 2011. The Crimson Tide are 2-0, hammering WKU 63-0 in Week 1, before last week's 42-16 win over USF, unable to cover the 30.5-point spread. But the Tide may be thinking they are better than they really are and easily could already be looking ahead to Georgia, who they face here after their bye next week. Understand that Bama is 0-5 ATS its last 5 road openers. Wisconsin is 2-0 SU, and 0-2 ATS. Both games have come against inferior opponents, winning 28-14 here vs. WMU as a 24-point fav, before then pulling away for the 27-13 victory over South Dakota last week as an 18.5-point favorite. The Badgers have been overvalued in back-to-back games to open the year, but I don't think that's the case here in Week 3. Alabama will bring out their best. The Badgers also have next week off before a conference road game at USC. This is a difficult place for Alabama to play its first road game and I don't think it can cover more than two TD's this weekend. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a solid cover for underrated Wisconsin. 

At 8:00pm ET, my Big 12 GOY is on K-State. Both these teams are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS. Arizona wasn't able to cover the 28-point spread over New Mexico in its 61-39 victory in Week 1, or in its 22-10 victory over Northern Arizona as a 37-point favorite. I'm expecting the underwhelming (Arizona) Wildcats to once again struggle in their first road game of the season and also their first foray into Big 12 play. Arizona QB Noah Fifita has been "OK," going 37 of 57 so far with a 5:2 TD:INT, but the defense has yet to be truly tested. This could be a very real problem, as AZ features four new starters up front on the defensive line this season. Arizona also has a new coach. K-State enters looking to move to 3-0 after beating Tulane 34-27 last time out. As mentioned, K-State has also been unable to cover the spread yet this season, but that's only also helped in driving this line down a bit lower than it normally would or should be in my opinion. I had marked the (K-State) Wildcats down as -10 for this game going into the season. The Cats were trailing by double-digits against Tulane and rallied to come back. That will serve them well here. Loaded on defense, K-State is a legitimate contender to win the Big 12. They have an experienced coach who knows his team. They are 4-0 ATS their last 4 Big 12 home openers. More talented, healthier and playing at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, look for Kansas State to pull away and take over this game down the stretch.

At 8:15pm ET, my AFC East GOM is on Miami. Want to hear an amazing stat? We have to go back several years but Miami has won ten straight divisional home contests as a favorite. Of course, this number is low enough that a victory will very likely also result in a cover. The Fish have to be feeling confident here after their 20-17 home win over Jacksonville. Tua had over 300 yards passing with a TD and the defense looked great overall in holding the Jags to just the 17 points. The short week shoujld also benefit Miami. No travel and sleeping in their own beds. This is a revenge game as well for the home side after it fell 21-14 in Week 18 at home to the Bills, the victory clinching the AFC East title for Buffalo at the time. As a matter of fact, that was the Bills' 4th straight win (and 9th win the last 10) in the series. The time is right to snap that series skid as Buffalo's defense left a lot to be desired after its come-from-behind 34-28 win over the Cardinals. Lay the small number. 

At 8:20 ET my NFL GOW is on the SF 49ers. While some may think the underdog Jets have a chance on Monday night, I'm not among them. This is still just Aaron Rodgers second game ever for his new team after suffering a season-ending injury on his first snap from scrimmage last year. The books out on the veteran's performance and he clearly has a difficult assignment here in San Francisco. The very well-coached 49ers will be very wary of trying to avoid a "Super Bowl hangover." They are Super Bowl contenders and they want to come set the tone for the season. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are both healthy and ready to go on opening night and they'll present a difficult challenge for this admittedly talented Jets' defensive unit. Rodgers is a big question mark, as is his chemistry with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Purdy's receiving corps though is stacked, with tight-end George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. I think Rodgers will improve as the season goes on, but I'm not getting behind a 40-year old on the road, coming off such a serious injury. The pointspread is low and I will lay the points with San Francisco.

At 8:20 ET, my NFC GOW is on the LA Rams. Last year the Detroit Lions went on the road and upset the Chiefs 21-20 in Week 1. This year it's the LA Rams looking to pull off a similar upset and in my opinion, the visiting side does indeed have much more than just a "punchers chance" to win this one outright. This is a playoff rematch that saw Detroit hold on for the tight 24-23 home win in the Wild Card, unable to cover the three-point spread. I'm expecting a similar battle until the end here in the opener. That means the underdog is offering real value, particularly with the spread having climbed since it came out. This has some really interesting story lines, with Matthew Stafford once again returning to his old team, and the Rams squaring off against former QB Jared Goff. But note, the last regular season game between the team's was back in 2021 and Stafford had 334 passing and three TD's, while Goff had 268 yards, a TD and two picks. Expectations are sky-high for the Lions, as all I hear around the "water cooler" is that Detroit has the best shot coming out of the NFC. I'm not completely convinced though and believe there could be some regression this year. Either way, this Week 1 contest will come down to the wire. The Rams are 6-3-1 versus the spread their last 10 as underdogs. Grab the points.

Ohio State is 1-0 SU, but it was unable to cover the ridiculous 49-point spread in its 52-6 home win over Akron last week. Now with a much "smaller" spread this week, I believe the Buckeyes will once again blow out their opponent in front of the hometown crowd this week, while also going on to cover the more "manageable" spread at the same time. It's another case of "David vs. Goliath" this week, as Western Michigan comes to town after a 28-14 loss at Wisconsin. It covered with the 24-point spread, but I just can't see the visiting side keeping pace with the Buckeyes down the stretch. Western Michigan finally returns for its first home game of the season next week, a "cream puff" vs. Bethune Cookman. Lance Taylor struggled for the most part last week, and so did the defense for WMU (especially against the run allowing three rushing TD's.) Will Howard should be even better this week for OSU after debuting with 228 passing yards and three touchdowns in the blowout victory over Akron. The Buckeyes also return seven starters on defense and as stated, I foresee WMU really struggling to move the ball at all this weekend. The Broncos are 0-6 SU/ATS their last 6 against the Big Ten. Lay the points with confidence, the play is on the Buckeyes to win in a rout.

At 12:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on Syracuse. 'Cuse is 1-0 after a dominant 38-22 win over Ohio at home as a 17-point favorite. While narrowly missing out on covering the large spread, the Orange did have a lot of positives to take away. Georgia Tech managed the 24-21 upset win over FSU as a 10-point dog in Week 0, before then pulling away for a 35-12 win over Georgia State as a 20.5-point fav last week. Having covered in B2B weeks, I think the public is a little bit quick to back the visiting side here. That's giving value with the home underdog as the Orange could easily be favored. The win over Georgia State was expected and the win over FSU doesn't seem as impressive after Boston College just smoked the Seminoles. Grab the points but expect the outright win.

At 9:00pm ET, my Flea Flicker is on Northwestern. Two 1-0 teams collide here, and only one will leave with a perfect record. In my estimation, home-field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. The Wildcats held on for the 13-6 win at home over Miami Ohio as a three-point favorite, while Duke posted the uninspiring 26-3 home victory over Elon as a -24.5-point favorite. The Blue Devils have a new coach here in Manny Diaz and while Duke came out on top at home, I believe they'll struggle in their first away game. Duke's Maalik Murphy is still adjusting to Jonathan Brewer's air-raid system and I think he'll struggle to match Mike Wright at home. Wright passed for 178 yards last week and added a game-high 65 rushing yards as well. Duke saw a ton of player turnover in its defense in the offseason and I say that becomes really apparent here on the road in Week 2 against a much tougher opponent. Look for Northwestern's balance down the stretch to prove to be the difference-maker in the outcome of this one.

At 7:30 ET, my CFB GOW is on USC. I enjoy playing College Football over the first week and here we have an opportunity to take advantage of a rare Sunday night matchup between LSU and USC in Las Vegas. Both teams have new defensive coordinators after each struggled on that side of the ball. Both will be better on that side of the ball but USC's improvement will likely be even greater. Both teams are also replacing their starting QB's, with Jayden Daniels leaving LSU and Caleb Williams departing USC. Brian Kelly has won ten games in back-to-back seasons, but to get to the next level his defense will need to take the next step to ever be considered a serious CFB Playoff contender. USC coach Lincoln Reily also enters his third season for the Trojans. This is USC's first game as a member of the tough/crowded Big Ten and after finishing 8-5 last year, Riley will have his hands full trying to duplicate that success, but I really like USC QB Miller Moss, who has plenty of weapons around him, including RB Woody Marks. LSU lost many other key players to the draft last year. The Tigers have dropped 4 straight season openers and I'm not convinced that they'll be ready to go. Grab the points with USC.

At 7:30 ET, my Smash And Grab selection is on UCLA. Now in the Big Ten, the Bruins are dealing with a difficult schedule. Their other road games include LSU and Penn State, as well as Rutgers, Nebraska and Washington. This is the easiest of the bunch and they need to take advantage. Though Foster in his 1st year, he knows the team. He's working with a lot. The Bruins will have edges all over the field against overmatched Hawaii. The Warriors didn't come close to covering against a terrible Delaware State team. They only had 19 first downs and 331 total yards. They lost the time of possession battle by more than 6 minutes. They're not ready for a much stronger Bruins team. Play on UCLA

At 7:00 pm ET, my Flea Flicker is on Oklahoma. This is a huge line yet it's not even big enough. Underdogs had their day in Week 0 but this will be a good old fashioned destruction. Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the entire country. Temple is one of the very worst teams in the country. The last time Temple played a top level offense was SMU last season. The score was 55-0. The Sooners averaged more than 40 points last season. They closed out last regular season by scoring 59 and 69 in 2 of their final 3 games. They are cracking the 50 mark again on Friday and an inexperienced and outmatched Temple offense may not score any. The Owls are 1-6 versus the spread their last 7 against ranked opponents. Lay the big number. Play on Oklahoma

At 8:00pm ET, my August GOM is on Jacksonville State. These teams played early in the season last year, at Coastal Carolina. It was really even (10-9) for a half before the Chanticleers went on a run in the 3rd quarter. The final statistics were quite equal. Now we get a stronger, deeper Jacksonville State team playing at home. The roles are reversed as they get Coastal Carolina, which has many new faces on the roster, playing it first road game. Rich Rodriguez will have the Gamecocks ready to kick off their season by getting revenge for last year. The line is low, all 9 of the Gamecocks wins came by at least 3 points last year. Play on Jacksonville State.

The Lions won't have the Detroit fans to support them. They're thousands of miles away on the West Coast. Last week was a fortunate matchup as they faced Tampa Bay, a team which was only in the playoffs because of the division it plays in. Now, they face the top team in the NFC.

The 49ers didn't play nearly their best against the Packer and they still won. They'll be better this week. Not having to travel will prove to be helpful. Now is also when the 49ers will benefit from their Wildcard Rd bye, a luxury which the Lions didn't have.

This is the best Detroit team in some time but the 49ers are better on both sides of the ball. San Francisco was third in points scored per game while Detroit finished fifth. The bigger difference is on the other side of the ball. The 49ers’ defense finished third in points allower per game while the Lions finished 23rd in that category.

They say that defense wins championships. Lay the points and expect that saying to ring true of the NFC Championship game on Sunday.

We've grown used to the Chiefs having a great offense and Patrick Mahomes working magic in the playoffs. It's hard to think otherwise. The Chiefs offense isn't great right now though. And Mahomes has never had to play a road playoff game. He's played in 3 Super Bowls but that's not a true road environment. Mahome's other 12 playoff games have all come at home. Now, he plays in cold, hostile Buffalo where he'll go up against some of the most passionate fans in the league and be opposed by a Bills teams which is playing its best football.

After a sluggish start, Buffalo has been winning for weeks. This team is ready to get the KC monkey off its back. Twice, the Chiefs have eliminated them from the playoffs. The Bills beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead in the regular season to earn the right to play this game here. At home, the Bills are are better on both sides of the ball They're 8-1 here, outscoring teams by a 29.7 to 15 average score. The Chiefs' regular season issues will rear their heads and the Bills will win and cover on Sunday night.

This is a great storyline as it pits Jared Goff against Matthew Stafford. You probably know that those two quarterbacks were traded for each other. Stafford played many years in Detroit. Goff played several for the Rams. Both QBs are still extremely capable. Both did well to guide their teams this far. The Lions have some important other advantages.

It stars with playing at home. With Michigan having just won the championship and the Lions favored to win this one, fans in Detroit are in a frenzy. They will play a role. The Lions won 6 of 8 games here, covering 5. The Rams were a modest 5-4 on the road.

Goff has better weapons than Stafford. The Lions score more than 27 points a game. The Rams score less than 24. Both defenses allow roughly the same number of points overall but the Lions allow 21.6 per game at home compared to the Rams' 23.8 allowed on the road.

The projected high-scoring game favors the Lions. They are 11-2 ATS their last 13 when the total was set at 49.5 or higher, 6-1 ATS in home games wiht a total of 49.5 or higher. The Rams are just 3-6 ATS their last 9 when the total was set at 49.5 or higher. Lay the small number! ***WC GOY***

Two undefeated teams, playing for the title. What could be better? For all the complaining, it ended up working out. As much as I love this Washington team, its magical run comes to an end on Janurary 8th.

The Huskies were able to dominate time of possession against Texas. That's not going to happen against Michigan. They were also able to throw for more than 400 yards. That's also not going to happen against the Wolverines.

Defense wins championships and Michigan's defense is the real deal. One of the best we've seen in recent years. The Wolverines held Alabama to less than 100 yards in the first half. Their 9.5 points allowed per game during the regular season was the best in the nation.

These teams met in 2021. The Huskies were able to move the ball through the air but the Wolverines dominated them on the ground. Michigan went on to win 31-10. A young Blake Corum carried the ball 21 times for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns. (Haskins also ran for 155 yards.) Now its Corum and Edwards instead of Corum and Haskins, Corum leading the charge. He'll have his way with Washington and carry Michigan to the title.

Miami wasn't good last week. That will cause a lot of people to stay away or to back Buffalo. When handicapping the NFL, its important to learn from the previous week but its also important to be able to "wash away" recency bias. Many bettors base too much of their handicapping on what they just saw, forgetting about what may been going on all season.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel provided some perspective: "If we had said that after Week 4 that we're going to play this Buffalo team again, and it will be the last game of the season for the division crown, I think everyone would have accepted that. That's some perspective that I talked to the team about. Their eyes were laser focused -- they will be eager to wash away this past game. The only way you can do that is to prepare for the next one."

Miami was on the road for the bad Baltimore loss and for the previous loss to Buffalo. The Dolphins are now at home where they are 7-1 on the season. The Bills are also 7-1 at home but they're only 3-4 on the road.

They haven't fared well in the series for years but the Dolphins did win 21-19 the last game played at Miami. In what will likely be another close game, homefield will again make the difference. Grab the points! ***GAME OF MONTH***

When you get this far, it goes without saying that all the teams are excellent. Texas was 12-1. Washington was 13-0. Texas lost against Oklahoma but beat Alabama. Washington beat Oregon (twice) and USC.

I backed Texas in its last game, a blowout of Texas Tech. The Huskies are not the Red Raiders. The Longhorns average 36.2 points a game. The Huskies can score with anyone though. They average 37.7.

The biggest reason that the Longhorns are favored is that they are considered to have a superior defense. Maybe so. But the Huskies are better on that side of the ball than the public realizes. They held 3 opponent to 10 or less. If they couldn't stop a team, the Huskies just outscored them.

Another reason that the Longhorns are favored is that Washington won a lot of close games. The Huskies won 4 games by 3 points or less. Each of their last 9 games was decided by 10 or less. All those narrow margins give people the impression that the Huskies were lucky to win some of those. I like that they won all those close games though. This team finds a way to get it done!

There's also the perception, by many, that the Big 12 is superior to the Pac-12. I disagree. The Pac-12 was stronger this season than people think. There were a lot of good teams and Washington beat every one of them which it faced.

The Longhorns are 1-3 ATS their last 4 tries when playing with 2 or more week's rest. Off their bye this season, they won by only 7 when listed as a 24 point favorite. The Huskies, who beat Oregon when off their bye, are 7-3 ATS their last 10 non-conference games. This game will likely be very close and I'm taking the points. ***BOWL GOY***

The Ravens looked pretty convincing against the 49ers but the Dolphins are a different type of team. Miami averages more than 30 points a game and the defense has gotten progressively stronger.

Baltimore scores a lot but Miami scores more. Last season, the Ravens scored 38 against the Dolphins and it still wasn't enough. Miami won 42-38.

The Ravens are off that big statement win on National TV. That was on Monday night on the West Coast. They're now traveling back across the country to play an early game on a short week.

The Dolphins have something to prove and Baltimore linebacker Queen added fuel to the fire by talking about "teams being cute and playing basketball on grass."

The Dolphins have won 5 of their last 6 and the only loss came by 1. They will prove to the world that they aren't soft on Sunday. ***AFC GOY***

Off consecutive losses, the Cowboys really need this one. They are still fighting the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. The Lions do still want a first round bye but they are off consecutive wins and have already locked up first place in the division. In my estimation, this game is more important to the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are an entirely different team at home. They pounded the Eagles 33-13 last game here. They are outscoring teams 39.9 to 15.4 in games here. I played against them in the only game that they didn't cover here but the Cowboys are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their 7 home games.

Prescott has 20 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions in the games here, completing 74% of his passed. Coach McCarthy said this of the Cowboys' homefield advantage: "We've been able to get into a rhythm early and be able to just keep your foot on the gas. The crowds have been great."

Detroit gets a reality check and Dallas stays perfect at home. ***NFC GOM***