Houston +3

Texans looking to beat the Titans for the sixth straight game. Backup QB Savage is now the starter in Houston and they will be looking to get him up to speed for the playoffs. Mariota out for Titans and Matt Cassel will get the nod. I'm familiar with how things go when Cassel starts at QB. Texans will be trying to build more momentum for playoffs. This game should be close with two decent defenses going at it. We have a live dog here for sure!

Play one unit on Houston

Baltimore +6

Seven of the last eight games between these division rivals in Pittsburgh have been three point contests. This is always a tough game and with so much on the line Sunday I expect this one to be the same. I am looking for a 3 point victory for either team. That gives us a winner!

Play one unit on Baltimore

NY Giants +1.5

The Giants defense is playing extremely well and the Eagles have troubles on the offense. The Eagles actually out statted the Ravens last week and still lost. This may be the square side of this but getting the Giants and a point with all that's on the line for them is a no-brainer for me. Giants D giving up less than 18 ppg. Their offense not doing anything really but they are certainly a live dog and live dogs this time of year is a good thing.

Play one unit on NY Giants

Patriots -3

Tom Brady didn't like losing to Denver last year in the playoffs. This will be two different teams than the teams that played each other last year. Denver's D isn't quite as good as LY. Their run defense is 4.2 ypc and 129 ypg, 29th in the league. The pass D is one of the best so expect the Pats to attack with RB Blount to open the field up for Brady. What has impressed me the most this year about the Pats is their D, only allowing 17.7 ppg 3rd in the league. I like the Pats to win this by a TD or more.

Play one unit on New England

Detroit +4.5

Lions and Giants having trouble running the ball. Both of these teams end up pretty one dimensional and Stafford playing better than Manning. Manning is just turning the ball over too ofte and this time of year that gets you beat. Stafford almost got his team beat last week vs the Bears with a stupid INT for a TD. Lucky for him it was the Bears and he led a game winning TD drive. This should be one helluva game and very close. Getting over the key number of 3 & 4 gives us plenty of value on a live dog.

Play one unit on Detroit

Baltimore -5.5

The Eagles roll into Baltimore with a 1-6 ATS road record. Against tough defenses in 3 of L4 weeks only scoring 14 ppg. Do you think the NFL's #1 D will be any more receptive to a rookie QB? Steelers are coming off a tough MNF loss to the Pats. Doesn't matter here as Flacco and the offense should have some fun against an Eagles D that has given up 28 ppg L4. The bird we're flying with here are the Ravens!

Play one unit on the Ravens

Kansas City

Both teams have some key injuries and these teams are very similar. Good defense and not much offense. I think this is going to be a hard fought division game between rivals that will come down to a FG. I like getting the hook on this number and that should help us cover this play. Game should come right down to the end. KC had been playing well until they got ambushed last week at home by Tampa. It was a trap game for them and I think that's what happened. Thinking about this game cost them last week. Chiefs will be focused this week. Denver off a bye, makes them a popular public play. I am contrarian here and like KC.

Play one unit on Kansas City

NY Jets

Jets always play the Pats close. They are 5-0-1 ATS vs the Patriots the L6. Hate to get in the way of the Brady comeback tour but, getting more than a TD in this series is enough for me to step out there. Looking like Gronk is out for Pats. 

Play one unit on NY Jets

Houston

We are getting good line value here after it opened as pick em. Chargers just find ways to lose and are popular coming off a bye week. Last we saw Texans we watched them make bad decisions in all aspects of the game. That was on the road and Houston is 4-0-1 vs the number at home. Osweiler might look like a QB against this Chargers D.

Play one unit on Houston

Pittsburgh -7.5

I hate to lay more than a TD but, Indy without Luck against a Steelers team that should score at will against this Colts defense.  Colts secondary last in the NFL and giving up 27.3 ppg. Not sure how the Colts stay with Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving night. Roethlisberger loves killing the Colts. He has played the Colts each of the last two years with 10 TD's and 0 INT's.

Play one unit on Pittsburgh

Detroit 

Minnesota used over 230 return yards and 2 td's to beat the Cards last week. They also picked off Palmer twice. The Vikings offense won't be able to keep up with the efficient Stafford and Lions offense. I didn't think I would ever say efficient and Lions in the same sentence. This really is more about the depleted Vikes even though Detroit has won and covered the last three Turkey Day games. They also can take the division lead with a win over the Vikings.

Play one unit on Detroit

Oakland

The Raiders are 5-0 ATS on the road this year. Houston D is good but, I like the Oakland offense better. I don't think Houston offense can do enough to stay with a Raider team that can take advantage of any mistake. Texans defense can stop the pass, however, their run defense is where they are hurting and that will eventually open up the field for Carr and his receivers. Tight first half with Oakland winning by 10 in the second half.

Play one unit on Oakland

Washington

We've lost a little value here but still like the surging Redskins against the struggling Packers. The Pack's offense has real problems and the defense isn't any better. Packer D allowing 27 ppg. Skins need this to stay close in NFC East and the Packers are on the road for the second week of a three game road stretch. Redskins last home game before they go on the road for three games. Big game for them.

Play one unit on Washington

Cleveland

The Browns beat Baltimore on the road last year. They had the Ravens down big in week 2, then promptly became the Browns. I don't look for very many points to be scored in this game. Division rivals and over a TD is a lot of points to lay. Browns are 5-1 ATS their L6 in Baltimore. I doubt the Browns get their first win but I look for them to keep this game close. Only way I can look here is to take the points.

Play one unit on Cleveland

Denver

The Raiders have been held down on offense against the two good defenses they have played. Titans held them to 17 and Chiefs held them to 10. Look for Denver to be able to do the same. Broncos without Talib tonight but they still have a stout defensive unit. Oakland defense giving up 25 ppg. I'll take the Broncos and a point all day. Battle for the lead in the division, Broncos know how to win and the Raiders still learning.

Play one unit on Denver

Atlanta -4

Bucs are coming off OT vs Oakland and don't have either have their top two RB's available tonight. Winston seems to have Falcons number but he excels on play action. He may be limited with that option tonight in light of the RB situation. He is near the bottom of the league in drop back pass rating. Atlanta also seeking revenge for opening week. They need this to avoid losing a tie breaker to Tampa should they tie atop the division. I don't usually like this number over 3 but, the Falcons should put it to Tampa Bay tonight. Bucs are allowing 27 ppg on D and the Falcons shouldn't have any problem getting there. Love me some high flying Falcons tonight.

Play one unit on Atlanta

Kansas City

No time for a write up today. KC has held Carr & Brees the last two weeks to 10 & 21 points. Well below season averages. Indy no running game and Chiefs offense may make some noise vs Colts D.

PLAY one unit on KC

Minnesota -3

Yes, I am going with a square pick here. I just think the Vikings defense will win this game over the Eagles. Bradford has some knowledge for sure of the Eagles offense. That will help the Vikes offense. Eagles OL Johnson on suspension and he was beat on the edge last week. Know the Vikings saw that.

Play one unit on Minnesota

Kansas City -1.5

We have lost  a little value as the week has progressed but, I still like the Chiefs here. This is a big sharp play in Vegas and I can't see the Chiefs losing this one. They are in need of the win more than the Raiders and Andy Reid is 15-2 off the bye. Raiders D is leaky and RB Charles for KC is 100%. They will be using him more today along with TE Kelce and WR Maclin all should have good days.

Play one unit on Kansas City

Cincinnati -2

The Bengals are off to a slow start and Dallas rookie QB Prescott has played well. However, they have played some suspect defenses and teams that just aren't very good. The Bengals bring a much better team to town and are in real need of a win. I will gladly lay less than a FG here. Cincy will need to score some TD's and not settle for FG's. Bengals have covered 9 of L10 on the road.

Play two units on Cincinnati

Denver -3.5

The high flying Falcons offense will be severely tested vs the Broncos D allowing 16 ppg and in Mile High. The Broncos haven't exactly been covering at home but, they did cover in Week 2 in Denver. I also think the Atlanta D will propel Denver's offense on to bigger and better things today.

I don't like having to lay the hook but this line is down from actually opening at -7. If Denver second string QB has to play I don't look for much of a dropoff.

Play one unit on Denver

Arizona -3.5

I don't think Stanton at QB will be that damaging for the Cards. They will rely on RB David Johnson and the Niners secondary isn't exactly healthy. Throw in LB Bavarro out and rookie DE Buckner out and the only thing keeping this SF team alive has been the defense. They will be short handed tonight and Arizona needs this game in the worst way. I think they get it done on the road in division. Not afraid of the hook in this particular game tonight.

Play one unit on Arizona

Packers -1

Packers to ruin Vikes reg. season opener in their brand new US Bank Stadium. I don't look for the Vikings D to score twice against Rodgers and the Packers. Revenge factor in play as well, also conference foes that know each other well. Bradford to start at QB tonight should make their playbook limited. AP right, AP left. LOL I like the Packers to get a big early season win vs a division foe.

Play one unit on Green Bay

Bengals +3

Cincy should be fired up for this after the way they lost the playoff game to Steelers LY. Division rivalry and we're getting a FG. The Bengals are 13-3-1 as dog since 2013. Road team also won each of the 3 meetings last year.

Play One Unit on Cincinnati +3

Lions -6

Well, I normally don't like to lay this many but Detroit brings it at home. Don't thnk the Titans will be able to keep up with the Detroit offense. I know this isn't Indy's D the Titans will be facing. However, Lions have a lot more firepower than a Sean Hill led Vikings team. Contrarian play here as I would normally look to take the points. We have a winner in MoTown Sunday!

Play One Unit on Detroit

Vikings -2.5

Vikings will show a steady diet of AP in this one against a Titans team that was 25th vs. the run last year. Titans will be improved but Minny should take this one going away. I would definitely pay the extra to get this line at 2.5. Remember we are betting into numbers not just a team.

Play one unit on Minnesota

Carolina -2.5

No time for write up today. Carolina rolls.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

Kansas City +5

WR Maclin a game time decision for Chiefs here. That is not good news for KC, the good news is they are a run oriented team. There will be some opportunities downfield especially if Maclin can go. TE Kelse might be double teamed if Maclin out. Look for WR's Wilson and Conley to try to stretch the field on this Patriot D. Patriots can't run the ball period. Tom Brady is the money man here, without a run game the Chiefs should be able to pin their ears back and come after him. The Chiefs also have the game to take on the road in the playoffs and win. They can run the ball especially late and the defense is one of the best. That being said I look for a close game to be decided by a FG. I like getting anything 4 or more in this low scoring affair.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

Washington -1

Packers have been really bad and their OL has allowed 13 sacks in the last 2 games. Rodgers can't throw when he is on his back. Redskins a much better team at home also. Washington D only allowing 18.6 ppg at home. Cousins has been solid. Since week 7 he leads the league in completion % with 72.4%. He has also thrown for 23TD's and only 3 INT's in that time. I like the Skins to get it done against a Packer team that couldn't win a weak division.

Play 1 Unit on Washington

2 Team 6 point Teaser - Tease Minnesota to +11 getting through key numbers of 6,7, & 10 and Tease GB & Washington Total down to 39 and take the Over

Cincinnati +3

Bengals have a solid defense that only allows 17.4 ppg, second best in the NFL. Cincinnati has two good RB's, but they will start their backup QB AJ McCarron. That won't be as big a problem as thought because the Steelers pass D is 30th in the NFL. Bengals have good WR's and good TE's. The Steelers look to be without backup RB Williams and this will put all the pressure on Big Ben who has thrown 6 INT's in the last three games. This should be a close game and we have a live home dog here looking for their first playoff win in 25 years.

Play 1 Unit on Cincinnati

Kansas City -3

The Chiefs are on a 10 game winning streak and that usually is not good coming into the playoffs. However, KC is scoring 27.8 ppg and allowing only 12.8 ppg during that stretch. Houston has won three in a row and only allowed a total of 22 points on defense. This stretch came against a Luck-less Indy, Titans, and Jags. Not too impressive when you look at the teams they played. They won a division that was down this year. The Texans defense is strong and figure to be the only chance the Texans have of winning this game. Alex Smith has been performing at a high level and the running game has been working very well. This will open up the pass game and Smith has ran the ball at big times for first downs. Run game and defense will travel. KC by at least a TD.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

Minnesota +3

Packers offense not playing well and Peterson should make noise against a run defense giving up 117 ypg. Vikings with a little revenge on their mind also. I like the Vikings to pull off the outright win in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

Dallas +6.5

The Bills are laying 6? Trouble in paradise with a Rex Ryan team? Can't believe either haha. Can't see where Moore making his first start is any worse than what Cassell has done for the Cowboys. Yet we are getting points for it. I think we are getting good value with this play. I don't like really taking these bad teams but this seems like good value and a good spot bet.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

New England -3

Taking the square side of this. Pats have Jets number and the NYJ on back to back roadies here. Pats playing for home field throughout. Ground healthy and the Patriots know how to win. They put this one away late.

Play 1 Unit on New England

New Orleans -2.5

The Saints are at home even though that hasn't meant much lately. That being said the Lions are having their usual road woes going 1-5 this year. The Saints have won 16 of their last 17 prime time games. I like this number at under the key number of 3 here and would think about  buying it down if it has moved back to three. Lions just can't get out of their own way and in a tailspin after the hail mary loss to the Packers. Two teams that are disappointed in their season, we will use the help up the voodoo in the Big Easy tonight!

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans