Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-17-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10* Run Line Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox got humiliated yesterday, losing 14-1 to the rival Yankees. Once the second half (of the season) commences, catching the Pinstripes won’t even be a realistic goal. Right now, the Red Sox face a 15.5 game deficit in the division. However, they are locked into a tight three-team race for second in the AL East and all three teams could end up being Wild Cards. Paramount at this juncture is Boston reversing its poor record in division games. They come into Sunday just 12-25 vs. the rest of the East. They’re big underdogs today, but I like them on the run line. Take the +1.5. Let’s not forget who won on Friday (it was Boston). That 5-4 victory in the series opener made it six straight extra inning wins for the Red Sox going back to late May. July has been a tough month overall though for the team (5-10 record), but four of the losses have been by one run, a result that would be just fine here based on our bet. After being humiliated on Saturday, I anticipate the Sox will come out swinging in this final game before the All-Star Break. A win today would give the team its first series win over a division opponent ALL SEASON. It’s a game that will be viewed as more important in the visitors’ dugout and the fact the first series win over a division foe could be the Yankees would make it all the more special. Chris Sale makes just his second start of 2022. His first saw him toss five shutout innings of three-hit ball on 7/12 vs. Tampa Bay. So he did his job. Sadly, that ended up being one of those one-run losses for the Red Sox (3-2). I expect him to pitch well on Sunday against a Yankees’ lineup that had been in a bit of a slump before yesterday. It should be noted that the Yankees have lost five of seven overall, three of those losses coming against the Reds. Over the L9 games, NY has just two wins by more than one run. Yes, Gerrit Cole has had a good first half of the season. But he also has a 4.30 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Boston. 10* Run Line Boston (+1.5) |
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07-12-22 | Astros v. Angels +1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
7* Run Line LA Angels (9:38 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I’m taking the Angels +1.5. I know that things haven’t been good for the Halos these past two months and they come into Tuesday on a four-game losing streak after being swept in Baltimore. Overall, they’ve dropped eight of nine. But three of the last five losses have been by exactly one run. There were two different games in Baltimore where the Angels blew two-run advantages. This is a revenge spot as the Astros swept them to start the month. At home and +1.5, I think this is a solid value. Since sweeping the Angels, Houston has faced Kansas City and Oakland, the two worst teams in the American League. They dropped a game in both series, but overall have now won 19 of their last 24 games. But I still see them as a bit of a “shaky favorite” for Tuesday with Luis Garcia on the mound. Garcia has won four straight decisions, but also did give up five runs in his last outing. He’s also allowed a home run in three of those last four starts. Winning by more than a run is hard to do on the road. The Angels counter with Noah Syndergaard, who has nice numbers at home (2.62 ERA, 0.985 WHIP) and should be able to keep his team in this game. Syndergaard did not face Houston earlier this month in the previous series. He did start July with seven solid innings against the White Sox (where he gave up only three runs and got the win). Last time out, Syndergaard allowed only two runs and five hits. To be clear, I do believe the underdog has a very solid chance at pulling the “outright” upset here. But just to be cautious, go with the RL instead. 7* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) |
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07-09-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
9* Run Line Boston (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line selection where I am taking the Red Sox +1.5. It’s not been a good series thus far for the home team, who has dropped the first two games 6-5 and 12-5. The Yankees are admittedly pretty ridiculous with the best record and run differential in all of MLB. However, they are basically just a coinflip proposition as a road favorite of -125 to -175, going 10-9 this year in such games. Boston stayed within a run in the series opener and, at worst, I think they can do that again Saturday. After the Yankees and Astros, the American League is not particularly strong this season. But a case can be made that the Red Sox are perhaps the Junior Circuit’s third best team. Most likely, there will be at least two Wild Cards coming from the AL East. It’s a tight three-team race for second in the division right now between the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. With the other two floundering, it’s imperative (for Boston) not to get swept this weekend. One positive here is they are 14-6 vs. left-handed starters this season and the Yankees are starting a southpaw (Jordan Montgomery) on Saturday. The Yankees had won seven straight Montgomery starts before losing the last one, 2-0 at Cleveland. Ironically, the loss was Montgomery’s best of his last three starts. He’d allowed a total of nine runs (in 12 ⅔ IP) the previous two. Montgomery has a 4.15 ERA in six previous starts at Fenway and the Yankees’ bullpen was called in early yesterday when Nestor Cortes faltered. The Red Sox are going with Kutter Crawford (great name for a pitcher), who will be making his third big league start and is still searching for his first win. Admittedly, it seems like a tough assignment, but I look for Crawford and the Red Sox to surprise here. 9* Run Line Boston (+1.5) |
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07-08-22 | Ottawa +7 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 21 m | Show |
10* Ottawa (9:30 ET): Ottawa is 0-3 to start the season, but has only been outscored by 12 points in those three games. All three losses have been by seven points or fewer and were to two teams, Winnipeg (twice) and British Columbia, both of whom are undefeated and a combined 7-0 straight up on the year. Last week, coming out of a bye, the REDBLACKS lost their home opener 34-31 to B.C. and it was especially painful for me as I had them +2.5. I’ll seek to gain some revenge for that loss by taking the points again this week. You’ve gotta believe that Ottawa is poised to win one, sooner rather than later. Saskatchewan is 3-1 SU on the young season, but only +24 in point differential, which is a far cry from the first two teams that Ottawa has faced. The Roughriders started out the year by beating Hamilton 30-13 and Edmonton 26-16. But those were somewhat misleading final scores as it wasn’t until late that the Riders pulled away. Sure enough, they suffered their first defeat in Week 3, getting blown out by Montreal 37-13. Last week saw them get a measure of revenge on the Als with a 41-20 beatdown at home. But it needs to now be pointed out that this will be the fifth straight week of action for the Riders while the REDBLACKS had a bye two weeks ago. Ottawa was outgained last week by BC, but that was after outgaining Winnipeg (substantially) in both games. Should be pointed out that Saskatchewan has LIVED off turnovers in each of its three wins, holding a +10 TO margin in those games. Last week, it was +4 vs. Montreal. Ottawa has zero turnovers in its last two games and just two all season. To me, this is a value play taking the points in what is likely going to be a pretty low-scoring game. The Riders are also without WR Shaq Evans, who fractured his ankle two weeks ago. 10* Ottawa |
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07-08-22 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
9* Run Line Milwaukee (8:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Brewers -1.5. Secondly, just like with the Rays-Reds matchup, we’ve got the same situational edge going to the team that doesn’t really need it. The Brew Crew have dominated the Pirates this season, going 8-2 in head to head matchups, including a 3-0 sweep in the Bucs’ lone prior visit here to American Family Field. With Pittsburgh coming off that doubleheader yesterday while Milwaukee had Thursday off, all signs point to a blowout victory for the home club in this series opener. Despite somehow being third in the division, the Pirates just might be the worst team in all of baseball. They definitely have the worst run differential (-131) and the seven-game gap between the team’s actual and expected win totals is the largest in all of baseball. In fact, Detroit is the only other team to have exceeded its Pythagorean win expectation by at least five games. Starting tonight for the Bucs will be JT Brubaker, who is 0-5 on the road (2-7 TSR) this season and has allowed 11 runs and 15 hits in his L17 IP vs. Milwaukee. The Pirates’ bullpen is also lousy, so expect Milwaukee to put plenty of runs on the board here. Pittsburgh is already being outscored by 2.0 rpg on the road this year. The Brewers have lost their last two games (to the Cubs) but still lead the NL Central. The last series was an uncharacteristically “off” performance from closer Josh Hader, who leads MLB with 25 saves. Typically, you get great starting pitching from Milwaukee. Andy Ashby gets the nod Friday and will be looking to rebound after losing to Pittsburgh last week. That was Ashby’s first start back from the IL. He should pitch a lot better tonight here at home as he has solid career marks vs. Pittsburgh. So just go ahead and “write off” that last one. The Pirates are an awful team. 9* Run Line Milwaukee |
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07-07-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
8* Run Line Houston (2:10 ET): First off, please note that this play is on the run line as I’m taking the Astros -1.5. Houston shockingly lost to KC last night, 7-4 as a -265 money line favorite. The loss also ended the Stros’ seven-game win streak. They still lead the AL West, however, by a rather large margin (13 games). The Royals remain mired in last place in the AL Central with one of the worst records in baseball. I can’t see the home team losing again this afternoon and with Justin Verlander on the mound, I’m confident that they will win by at least two runs. Starting pitching has been a real strength for this Astros team in the first half, but injuries have hit the rotation hard. But Verlander is still here and he comes in with a 2.03 ERA and 0.832 WHIP. The team has already won 11 of his 15 starts this season and speaking of wins, there’s no team that Verlander has beaten more in his career than the Royals. Over his L2 starts, Verlander has allowed just one run in 15 IP, not to mention only six hits. Houston’s bullpen is also very good and I just do not see KC scoring many runs in this game. Kris Bubic is starting opposite Verlander on Thursday and he simply won’t be able to match the former Cy Young winner. Bubic has really struggled this year with a 7.23 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 11 starts. By the way, the Royals are just 9-18 off a win this season and 13-22 in day games. Houston is 19-8 off a loss and 21-9 in day games. On paper, this looks to be one the biggest single-game mismatches of the MLB season to date. 8* Run Line Houston (-1.5) |
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07-02-22 | Orioles v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
9* Run Line Minnesota (2:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the Twins -1.5. The home team opened the series with a one-run win yesterday, 3-2. Obviously, I’m looking for a bigger win today. While the Orioles had been surprisingly competitive over the last month, they’ve now lost three straight and remember that this is a club destined for last place in the AL East. FanGraphs even has them with the lowest projected win percentage for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, the Twins are a team looking to win the AL Central pennant. Should be a big win Saturday afternoon. The Twins still have a 1.5 game lead over Cleveland in the division, but that lead was cut after B2B walkoff losses to the Guardians. Last night was Minnesota’s chance for late game theatrics as Byron Buxton walked off with a two-run HR in the bottom of the ninth. So that’s three consecutive games that have come down to the final at-bat. Considering today’s pitching matchup, I’d be shocked if that streak continues. Sonny Gray goes for the Twins and he has been red hot on the mound of late with a 1.69 ERA and 0.937 WHIP his L3 starts. Gray has gone at least five innings while allowing two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. He tossed seven shutout innings his last time out. Baltimore’s Jordan Lyles seems to be trending in the opposite direction and he has a 6.47 ERA and 1.541 WHIP on the road for the season. Speaking of the road, this is the O’s third consecutive series away from home and fatigue could be starting to set in. Twins’ pitching has been great recently with five or fewer hits allowed in the last six games. Baltimore has not done well against righties this year (3.9 rpg) and is batting below .220 in its last eight games overall. 9* Run Line Minnesota (-1.5) |
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06-30-22 | BC v. Ottawa +2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
10* Ottawa (7:30 ET): B.C. has gotten off to a HOT 2-0 start, winning the two games by a combined score of 103-18! But this is not a great spot for the Lions, who are on a short week and traveling East to the capital city of Canada. Last week, we saw a Saskatchewan team in a very similar spot, 2-0 and heading East on a short week, get blown out. Like the Leos, the Rough Riders were short road favorites. They lost 37-13. Further complicating matters for British Columbia this week is the fact they had multiple key players go down with injuries last week, receiver Bryan Burnham and running back James Butler among them. This will be B.C.’s first road game this season. I know that QB Nathan Rourke (an Ohio U grad!) has been extremely accurate to start the year, completing a record 87.8% of his passes. His 39 completions last week were the seventh most in a game in CFL history. But Rourke can’t possibly continue these numbers. I also don’t think the team will be able to come close to matching last week’s extraordinary time of possession (40:18), the highest the league has seen in a game since 1996. Again, a short week for the Lions does them no favors for this first road game. On top of that, Ottawa is coming off a bye. The host REDBLACKS are 0-2 so far, but both losses came against unbeaten Winnipeg. Those games were close, decided by a total of nine points, and the REDBLACKS’ defense allowed only 19 points in both games. Despite going against the Blue Bombers’ top-ranked defense in both games, Ottawa QB Jeremiah Masoli is having his own great start to the season, throwing for 300+ yards in both games. His top receiver, Jaelon Acklin, has the fourth most yards in the league (220) and the highest average despite playing in only two games. This feels like a great value on the home team. 10* Ottawa |
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06-28-22 | Tigers v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
9* Run Line San Francisco (9:45 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants at -1.5. SF just dropped two of three here at home over the weekend to Cincinnati. Already in third place in the NL West, last year’s division champs can ill-afford another subpar series against a bottom-feeder. While the Tigers are technically NOT a last place team, they are certainly bottom five in my own personal power ratings. Looking at who’s on the mound for Tuesday’s opener, there’s a clear advantage to the home team in this one. Look for the Giants to win by at least two runs here. Carlos Rodon has been lights out for SF over his last three starts. He’s posted a 0.43 ERA and 0.619 WHIP during that stretch, allowing only one run on seven hits in 21 innings. He has a 26-6 KW ratio. Each start has seen him go at least six innings and allow three hits or less. Making the stretch even more impressive is the fact Rodon faced the Dodgers and Braves, the two NLCS teams from last season. As a member of the White Sox, Rodon faced the Tigers three times last season. He allowed only four runs in 16 innings and picked up a pair of wins, one seeing him allow just a hit in 7 IP and the other seeing him strikeout 12 in six innings. Rodon will be opposed by Tarik Skubal, whose recent results couldn’t be more different. Skubal has a 9.88 ERA and 2.048 WHIP in his L3 starts, all losses. Both Rodon and Skubal have 14 starts under their belts this year. Shockingly, Skubal has a 7-7 TSR while Rodon is just 6-8. That doesn’t seem fair. Detroit, even after taking two of three out in Arizona over the weekend, still has the run differential (-97) of a 23-win team. They are 28-44, so really the overall record should be even worse. The Giants are 14-7 in games vs. LH starters, the Tigers are just 7-13. 9* Run Line San Francisco (-1.5) |
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06-26-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
10* Run Line Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the White Sox at -1.5. This play may come as a tad bit of a surprise, given my overall outlook on the White Sox. At least based on their run differential, currently -52, the team should have a worse won-loss record. They are one of just three times in all of MLB to have exceeded their Pythagorean win expectation by more than three games. But today the White Sox are facing the prospect of getting swept at home, in a four-game series, by Baltimore. I just don’t see that happening. Lay the -1.5. The main reason I like the White Sox on Sunday is that they have Dylan Cease starting. The team is 10-4 this season with him on the mound and he’s been one of the better pitchers in the American League thus far. Over his last five starts, Cease hasn’t allowed a single earned run (!), although that’s a tad bit misleading as he gave up six unearned runs when he faced the Dodgers on June 9th. But that’s been the exception, not the rule, as Cease has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 outings. I know that the team has lost four in a row and has a lengthy injury list, but getting swept at home in a four-game series just isn’t very common. Cease is the difference maker. Sweeping a four-game series on the road is pretty rare and especially when the visiting team is someone like Baltimore, who is doomed to another last place finish this year in the AL East. FanGraphs has the Orioles projected to win just 34 more games the rest of the season, tied with Oakland for fewest in all of MLB. Jordan Lyles gets the starting nod for Sunday and just doesn’t seem capable of matching Cease. Lyles has struggled on the road all season (6.80 ERA, 1.632 WHIP) and the team is just 1-4 his L5 starts overall. 10* Run line Chi White Sox (-1.5) |
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06-25-22 | Edmonton Elks +7.5 v. Calgary | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (7:00 ET): This is the first battle between these long-time provincial rivals since Edmonton was rechristened the Elks. It’s been a tough start for the 0-2 Elks, who have been outscored 85-31. But this sets up as a good “ambush” spot as Calgary, while 2-0, is going to be without RB Ka’Deem Carey and QB Bo Levi Mitchell is listed as questionable (game-time decision). The Stampeders could easily be 0-2 themselves right now as they needed 4Q comebacks to win both games. The two wins have been by a combined six points. So take the points Saturday night. Back in Week 1, the Stamps won 30-27 at home over Montreal, thanks to a last second field goal. They were down 10 points (24-14) at halftime. They lost the total yardage battle in that game, something that was also the case last week at Hamilton where they got outgained 499-378, only to once again escape with a victory by a three-point margin. Only this time they needed OT after rallying from an even bigger deficit. The Stamps trailed the Ti-Cats 17-0 after the 1Q and were still down 14 entering the 4Q. Now they won’t have Carey and his backup Peyton Logan also went down with an injury in the second half of last week’s game. Mitchell potentially being out potentially looms largest as he threw for 300+ yards in last week’s come from behind effort. I know Edmonton’s defense has had trouble stopping the run, but they get a huge break here with the injuries in Calgary’s starting backfield. While the Elks did get clobbered in Week 1 vs. BC, they were up going into the 4Q last week vs. Saskatchewan. Now set to face their biggest rival, this looks like a great opportunity to grab the points. Calgary is just 6-20-1 ATS its last 27 games as a favorite. 10* Edmonton |
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06-25-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
7* Run Line Houston (1:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Astros +1.5. The Astros won last night, 3-1, as a slight underdog. That was after they should have won Thursday’s opener. They led that game 6-3 heading into the bottom of the ninth, when Aaron Judge was able to win it for the Pinstripes. Houston finished with an 11-6 edge in hits, however. Yes, this is the feared Yankees we’re fading (at home), but it’s a tremendous value on the Astros, who are the second best team in the American League and would have cashed on the RL both games in the series. Take the +1.5. Don’t be fooled by Cristian Javier’s 5-4 TSR or seemingly mediocre ERA & WHIP. Javier has allowed 2 ER or less in seven of nine starts this season and has an xBA (expected batting average allowed) of .204. The Yankees have only 11 hits in this series so far and actually haven’t topped seven hits in any of their last five games. With Javier on the mound, the Astros are absolutely capable of being the first team to hand the Yanks B2B losses this month. Houston is also 24-15 on the road this season and 16-8 in day games. They’ll face Gerrit Cole on Saturday. Cole is a tough matchup and was spectacular his last time out. But he’s going against a tough lineup here. Cole has been roughed up a couple of times in 2022, including when he gave up seven runs in just 2 ⅓ innings to the Twins earlier this month. Another thing that must be considered is the Astros have the edge in the bullpen in this matchup. All things considered, having an extra 1.5 runs “in our back pocket” is the right way to play this matchup. 7* Run Line Houston (+1.5) |
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06-24-22 | A's +1.5 v. Royals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
7* Run Line Oakland (8:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the A’s +1.5. I know that Oakland has played some hideous baseball in June (3-16!) and was just swept at home by Seattle. But Kansas City should never be this high of a ML favorite, even if they did just take two of three from the A’s last week. The Royals being in this price range opens up a play on the RL, which looks great to me as not only are the A’s a shocking 4-0 this season on the road when the ML is +125 to -125, but they’ve got (by far) the better starting pitcher going Friday. KC has also lost three of the four games where they’ve been ML favorites of -125 to -175 this year. Take the +1.5 to be safe. It will be Cole Irvin on the mound here for the visitors. While an 0-7 TSR over his L7 starts is certainly concerning, be aware that Irvin’s ERA over that stretch is actually 2.83! Twice this month, the A’s have lost by a single run with Irvin on the mound. We’d take that result here. Irvin pitched very well against the Royals last weekend, holding them to one run and three hits over 6 ⅓ innings. Unfortunately, he got no support in a 2-0 final. Still, it seems we can count on Irvin holding up “his end of the bargain” as he’s now allowed 2 ER or less in eight of his previous nine outings. Zack Greinke is the starter tonight for the Royals. This will be his first time back on the mound in nearly a month. He’s 0-4 in 10 starts this year, so it’s not been a good season, especially when you look at his 5.05 ERA and 1.354 WHIP. Consider that Irvin has allowed a total of 17 runs in his L9 starts while Greinke has allowed 12 in just the last two. Oakland should have won yesterday’s game as Frankie Montas took a no-hitter into the eighth. Seattle ended up scoring both of its runs on wild pitches (brutal!). Kansas City had just two hits in its last game as it was shutout for the 10th time this season and second time in the last four games. 7* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) |
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06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* Run Line LA Angels (9:49 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the Angels -1.5. Thanks mostly to Shohei Ohtani, the Angels fought their way back from an early deficit last night. But it was not to be as they fell again, this time 12-11 in 11 innings, their 21st loss in the last 27 games. Dropping two in a row to the lowly Royals, at home no less, is really unacceptable. Tonight, the Angels will have Ohtani on the mound, so he has the chance to give them even more than the two homers and eight RBI’s he did last night. I’ve had success playing the RL all month long and am confident here that the home team wins by at least two runs. The Angels are just 5-6 in Ohtani starts this year, but that’s misleading. He has a 3.28 ERA and 1.094 WHIP, numbers that get even better here at home. In his last start, Ohtani threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball and got the win over the Mariners, 4-1. LA took four of five games in that series, which makes the results of the L2 days all the more perplexing. The Royals are just 25-42 and easily one of the five worst teams in baseball. They’d been just 7-14 off a win coming into yesterday. They have only three three-game win streaks all season and one was back in April. A good time to fade them, this is. The Royals used nine different pitchers in last night’s game, so that’s a lot of pressure on tonight’s starter Daniel Lynch. Lynch did get the win his last time out by allowing just one run over five innings against Oakland. But he has a 5.19 ERA and 1.525 WHIP for the season. He’d allowed four or more runs in four of five starts prior to getting the win over Oakland, who is the only team in the AL with a worse record than KC. Not only has the Royals’ starting pitching generally been ineffective this year (no starter has an ERA below 4.30), but as you saw last night, the bullpen is also bad (4.80 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). I just cannot see the Angels getting swept here; a multi-run win is likely. 10* Run Line LA Angels (-1.5) |
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06-18-22 | Guardians v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
10* Run Line LA Dodgers (7:15 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Dodgers -1.5. The home team lost yesterday, 2-1 in extra innings, which was certainly a surprise as they closed at -280 on the money line. But this appears to be a great “buy low” spot on Dodger Blue. I’ve still got them rated #2 overall in my power ratings (behind the Yankees), despite the fact they’ve fallen out of first place in the NL West (½ game behind SD). Saturday’s starting pitcher Julio Urias does have an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts, but a 2.80 ERA and 1.057 WHIP indicate “better times are ahead.” Urias has in fact allowed 1 ER or less in three of those last four starts. Last time out, he had 10 strikeouts and zero walks, but allowed two solo homers and lost 2-0 to the Giants. Other than the two solo shots, Urias allowed just one hit in six innings of work. That was also the second time in the last four Urias starts where the Dodgers got blanked, which is certainly odd considering this is a team that has the third highest runs per game average in all of MLB (5.0). What I am (clearly) trying to say here is that Urias is due for better results (and more run support). Very odd to see a starting pitcher that has allowed 2 ER or less eight times have a 4-8 TSR. Because of the fact that LA is outscoring teams by 1.7 rpg this year, I’m confident enough to take them on the run line. Plus, Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill is due for some regression as his strikeout rate and velocity have been down, yet he’s somehow managed to keep a 3.38 ERA, a full point below his xERA. When Quantrill starts on the road, Cleveland is just 1-4 this year and while he does have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts overall, it’s worth pointing out that the teams he faced were: Kansas City, Texas and Oakland. Despite losing, the Dodgers had more hits in last night’s game. 10* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5) |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:00 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the Celtics, who are back at home and facing elimination. This will be the fourth time the team has faced elimination this postseason and obviously they have gone 3-0 the previous three times. They are 3-0 ATS in those three wins as well, two of them coming on the road, including a Game 7 in Miami. (Also beat Milwaukee in Games 6 and 7 in the Conference Semis). This will be the 1st time in the postseason where the C’s are off B2B SU losses as prior to losing Game 5, they had been 7-0 SU/ATS off a SU loss. I can’t see them losing at home in this spot, so lay the points. There have been five times in this postseason run that Boston has found itself down in the series. All five times they won and covered the spread. This is the first time in the NBA Finals that they’ve been behind in the series. One could argue that they should have won both prior games here at home. They cruised to a 116-100 victory in Game 3, then led most of the way in Game 4 (before falling apart down the stretch). You have to anticipate that the Celtics will shoot better than 41.3%, which is where they finished in Game 5. They were also a series-worst 11 of 32 from three-point range (34.4%). Going into Game 5, the Celtics were 10-2 ATS this season when off a double digit defeat. They’ve been held under 100 points in back to back games, which is something that I can’t see happening again. Now, with the Warriors having gone 9 of 40 from three-point range in the last game (including 0 of 9 from Steph Curry), Boston will have to be prepared for Golden State to score more as well. But I think they’re up for the challenge and while the Dubs are very likely to shoot better than 22.5% from behind the arc, they may not hit 46.6% overall (a series high) like they did in Game 5. Golden State is just 2-6 ATS its L8 road games. 10* Boston |
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06-16-22 | A's +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
7* Run Line Oakland (1:35 ET): The A’s have just one win in June and now that includes an 0-5 record against the Red Sox following yesterday’s 10-1 loss. None of that is inspiring heading into today’s series finale at Fenway Park, but the road team will have Paul Blackburn on the mound and him getting an additional 1.5 runs seems like a good value to me. To be clear, this is a run line play where I’m backing the A’s +1.5. With them having the edge on the mound, this is a smart play. The Red Sox are only 15-14 at home while Oakland has actually been more competitive on the road. Blackburn was outstanding his last time out, holding Cleveland scoreless over eight innings. He gave up only four hits, but unfortunately ended up not factoring into the decision as the A’s bullpen blew the game. Note that it was a one-run loss, a result we’ll take here. Plus, Blackburn has now allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his 12 starts this year. He’s 4-0 in his seven road starts (6-1 TSR) with a spectacular 0.91 ERA and 0.907 WHIP. Now he did struggle a bit against this Boston lineup back on June 4th, giving up four runs in four innings. But I think, on the road, he’s set to pitch a lot better this time out. Now Oakland needs some runs, obviously. They rank 29th (second to last) in runs scored and yesterday was the 22nd game this season they scored 1 run or less. Thankfully, they’ll be facing Rich Hill Thursday afternoon. Hill is 0-2 in four home starts with an 8.04 ERA and 1.659 WHIP. He’s made through six innings in just two of his 11 starts this season. There’s no disputing Boston has been the better team, both head to head and overall, but Oakland’s edge in today’s starting pitching matchup is substantial and getting an additional 1.5 runs in our “back pocket” is a nice luxury to have. Look for the A’s to do no worse than a one-run loss today. 7* Run Line Oakland |
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06-15-22 | Rays +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
6* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line where I am backing the Rays +1.5. In a matchup with an outstanding pitching matchup, there figures to be very few runs scored. So, in my opinion, this is the best way to play it. The Rays may have lost the series opener 2-0 (while the Yankees have won five straight and 12 of their last 13), but the visitors also have perhaps the best pitcher in baseball on the mound this evening, that being Shane McClanahan. Him +1.5 runs is a steal, even at this price. McClanahan comes in with a 7-0 team start record in his L7 starts (meaning the Rays have won all seven starts) with a 1.19 ERA and 0.772 WHIP over that stretch! His overall numbers for the season are not much different. I took him in his previous start, which came at home vs. St. Louis, and McClanahan did a number on the Cardinals’ lineup, allowing only one run on two hits over eight innings. He has not allowed more than three runs in any start all season while going at least six innings in 9 of his L10 starts. Now the Yankees will have arguably their top pitcher, Nestor Cortes, on the hill. This is why I feel more confident in taking the Rays on the RL as opposed to the money line. Cortes is having a similar year to McClanahan, although his ERA and WHIP are slightly higher. He also lost his last start after giving up a pair of homers and four runs total (lasted only 4 ⅓ innings). The Rays do hit lefties better than they hit righties and the team is a perfect 3-0 this season after a shutout loss. 6* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5) |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:00 ET): I’m still a believer in Boston winning this series, so taking the points in Game 5 seems like the logical call. The Celtics still sport the higher net efficiency rating in the playoffs, even after losing Game 4. They’ve outscored opponents by six points per 100 possessions while Golden State is at just 3.9. While Game 4 was at home, remember that the Celtics did lead most of the way, until falling prey to a Steph Curry fourth quarter barrage. The Warriors are only averaging 103.5 PPG against Boston in six meetings this year. I just think taking the points is the way to go here. Of course, supporting a play on the Celtics here is the fact they have yet to suffer B2B losses in the playoffs. Since sweeping Brooklyn, they’ve gone a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread off a loss and five of those seven wins have been by double digits. Only one, Game 7 vs. Miami, was by fewer than eight points. Going back even further, the Celtics are 15-5 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite this season and 10-2 ATS following a double digit loss. Boston had too many turnovers in Game 4. It’s something we’ve seen from them before in these playoffs and it usually ends in defeat. But the good news is that they almost always clean up the “turnover bug” the next game. The Celtics also shot just 40% from the field in Game 4, a number they will improve upon Monday night. They continue to shoot well from three; it was a disappointing 19 of 47 from inside the arc that cost them in the last game. This team is 33-17-2 ATS on the road. 10* Boston |
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06-13-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
9* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I’m backing the Blue Jays at -1.5. Suffice to say, Toronto is now living up to its preseason hype as the team has taken 12 of its last 16 games to climb into the lead in the AL Wild Card race. That may not be as lofty a position as was expected from them, but no one expected the Yankees to be this good. At the opposite end of the spectrum in the division, you have Baltimore, who occupies last place and figures to remain there the rest of the way. For this series opener, I don’t see the Jays having much trouble putting up runs or winning big. Over the past two weeks, Toronto has averaged 6.8 runs per game while batting a collective .310. After a rare low-scoring effort on Saturday (lost 3-1), they got on back on track yesterday with a 6-0 win in Detroit. That was their third shutout win by more than six runs in the last six games and their fourth win by at least six runs during that same stretch. Here in June, all seven of the team’s wins have been by four runs or greater. Orioles’ starter Kyle Bradish has really struggled since his big league debut on 4/29, posting a 6.53 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in eight starts. I have no idea how the O’s have managed to win each of Bradish’s last three starts with him posting an 8.17 ERA and 2.18 WHIP during that time. I can’t see Bradish pitching well today, against a top five offense. So we know that Toronto is going to score some runs tonight, but what about preventing them? Expect starter Alek Manoah to take care of business as he checks in with a 1.81 ERA and 0.962 WHIP. Last time out, Manoah tossed six shutout innings and the Blue Jays ended up winning 7-0 over KC. The team is 4-0 in Manoah’s last four starts, winning the last two by a combined 12 runs. Manoah is now 16-3 his L19 decisions. 9* Run Line Toronto (-1.5) |
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06-11-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
9* Run Line Philadelphia (4:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Phillies -1.5. This team has absolutely turned it around since dumping Joe Girardi, winning eight in a row and sweeping both the Angels and Brewers. Last night saw them hand the D’backs a 7-5 defeat, a game where I ended up cashing the Over and was feeling very confident about doing so after just two innings, when the Phils grabbed an early 6-0 lead (after two innings). Tonight they should continue their roll and look for another win by 2+ runs as the team’s run differential during the win streak is +41! As I’ve written before, the Phillies were drastically underachieving for Girardi and were likely to turn things around eventually, based on their YTD run differential, which has been positive most of the season. Even now, after the eight straight wins, they still are underperforming their Pythagorean win total by four. The good news is that the offense has really turned it around, scoring six or more runs in all but one game during the win streak. They should have success this afternoon vs. Madison Bumgarner, who has allowed 4+ ER in three of his last four outings. He has a 5.18 FIP on the road this season and - as mentioned in yday’s analysis - the D’backs’ bullpen has generally been pretty bad (5.75 ERA, 1.55 WHIP on the road). Zack Wheeler starts here for Philly. He has a 1.73 ERA and 0.936 WHIP at home. The fact the team is just 3-3 in his six home starts seems a bit unlucky. In his last seven starts overall, Wheeler is 4-0 (5-2 TSR) with a 1.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of those seven starts. Arizona came into yesterday hitting just .215 for the year and .204 its last seven games. They just don’t match up well here and the Phillies are obviously red hot. 9* Philadelphia Run Line (-1.5) |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:00 ET): We know that the Celtics have yet to lose B2B games this postseason. They’re now 7-0 SU/ATS following a loss after downing the Warriors 116-100 Wednesday night in Game 3. That win also puts them up 2-1 in the NBA Finals. If Boston is to win the NBA Championship, I think tonight's game is of critical importance. If they don’t win here, then they’re going to have to win again at Golden State, which is not easy to do. As I said at the outset of the series (I had Boston in Game 1), I feel the Celtics have been the better team all season - posting a better scoring differential and net efficiency rating than the Warriors. I’m laying the points in Game 4. The fact that Boston is up in the series despite Steph Curry averaging more than 30 PPG is a positive sign, in my view. Curry is now banged up, with an unspecified injury that he suffered near the end of Game 3. He’s vowed to play tonight, but will he be at 100 percent? The last three games have been the best stretch of three-point shooting from Curry in the playoffs and my gut tells me that he was “due” for an off-night anyways. Remember how good Boston is defensively; they were #1 in scoring defense during the regular season and have been even stingier in the playoffs, allowing only 101.6 PPG. In five meetings with the Celtics this season, Golden State has only averaged 102.8 PPG. The Warriors’ defense isn’t nearly as good on the road as it is at home and we saw them let the Celtics shoot 48.3% from the floor in Game 3. Boston has also made 49 threes in three games, shooting 43% from behind the arc. Golden State has been pretty similar, but was expected to be ahead in that department and, as I said earlier, I believe Curry is set to regress. The Warriors, surprisingly, are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. They’ve lost four of the last five outright. 10* Boston |
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06-08-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
7* Run Line Seattle (6:40 ET): First off, please note that this is run line play where I’m backing the Mariners +1.5. These AL West rivals have split the first two games, the Mariners taking the opener 7-4 while the Astros bounced back with a 4-1 win last night. I love the idea of getting Logan Gilbert +1.5 runs in this spot as not only does the Seattle starter sport a 2.35 ERA and 1.031 WHIP after 11 starts this season, but Houston is only averaging 3.7 runs per game at home. The M’s should score enough here and I don’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in this series finale. So Gilbert has been excellent thus far in 2022, especially on the road where he has a 1.96 ERA and 0.992 WHIP. The team has won five of his seven road starts, including the last one (4-3 over Texas) where Gilbert allowed just two runs (one unearned) and five hits over six innings. Prior to that, at home, he threw seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against these Astros. In seven of 11 starts this season, Gilbert has allowed 1 or 0 ER, which is very impressive. He was the American League Pitcher of the Month for April and has gone six innings or longer in four straight outings. Count on him to hold up “his end of the bargain” here. Houston could be without one of its top relievers (Hector Neris), although he’s appealing his four-game suspension. It will be Jose Urquidy starting this game for the home team. Urquidy probably does not deserve his 7-3 team start record, given a 1.51 WHIP. He started opposite Gilbert back on May 28th (when Gilbert threw the seven shutout innings) and got shelled, allowing six runs and 12 hits. Urquidy now has a 5.93 ERA in six career appearances vs. the Mariners. He rarely gets past the fifth inning. Considering this pitching matchup, an extra 1.5 runs “in our back pocket” sounds nice. 7* Run Line Seattle (+1.5) |
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06-02-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:05 ET): Looking at the respective seasons, I think the Celtics are better than the Warriors. The numbers bear this out, not just for the playoffs, but the regular season as well. In the regular season, Boston had the better net efficiency rating (+8.1 vs. +6.6) while in the playoffs, that advantage is now +6.6 to +5.2. Taking that into careful consideration and the fact that the public seems OVERWHELMINGLY in favor of the Warriors here, I’ll be taking the points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. These were the top two teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season and Boston was #1 in scoring defense. In the playoffs, giving up just 101 PPG, the Celtics have moved well past the Warriors in terms of defensive efficiency. I also think that Boston had the far tougher path to get here, ousting Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Phoenix while GS only had to get past Denver, Memphis and Dallas. The fact that Boston is coming off a seven-game series is mitigated by the fact they haven’t had to play since Sunday, giving them three days off. The Celtics have been true “road warriors” this season, going 32-16 ATS away from home. They are 6-1 ATS as road underdogs in these playoffs. In the two regular season matchups, these teams each won on the other’s floor. I know that the Warriors have the flashier offense, more star power and the home court advantage. But I believe that the Celtics are the better team here and the public isn’t really clued into it. Boston is actually 7-3 straight up the previous 10 meetings with Golden State and I look for them to do the job defensively on Steph Curry in Game 1. 10* Boston |
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05-31-22 | Pirates v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* Run Line LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers suffered one of the most shocking losses of this MLB season last night as they fell 6-5 (at home!) to the Pirates. They were -330 on the money line on Monday, so hopefully you didn’t bet them. It’s a similar deal today and obviously at that price, there’s little value. But I am willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line as this is still a matchup of what I consider the best team in baseball against the worst team in baseball. Pittsburgh’s -83 run differential is baseball’s worst right now. The Dodgers are +118 (easily #1). To be clear, this play is on the RL where I am backing LA -1.5. Mitch Keller is winless in 2022 for the Bucs at 0-5 his first seven starts. His team start record is 1-6 to go along with a 6.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. His L2 starts, both of which were vs. the lowly Reds, saw Keller allow 5 ER each time out. The Dodgers are an offensive juggernaut, averaging 5.8 runs per game at home where they are winning by an average of 1.9 rpg. The Dodgers are also 9-5 off a loss. \ It is downright shocking to me to see that Pittsburgh is 3-1 vs. the Dodgers this season. But off a win, the Pirates are 4-13 this season and 0-6 on Tuesdays. They will face Julio Urias, who has very good numbers on the year (2.49 ERA, 1.064 WHIP) after allowing two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. Another Pirates’ win here is simply out of the question and with that mindset, why not lay the -1.5? Look for the home team to win by AT LEAST two runs here. 8* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5) |
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:30 ET): The Heat cannot possibly play any worse than they have the last two games, right? They’ve averaged just 81 points in a pair of double digit losses, the last one coming at home and leaving them in a situation where they now need to beat the Celtics two straight. I would be shocked if the Heat came back to win this series as - coming in - I felt Boston was the deserved favorite. But this is too many to pass up with a Miami team that’s 19-8 ATS as an underdog and playing for its season. In a game that’s expected to be low-scoring, taking the points just seems like the way to go. Miami made just 31.9% of its field goal attempts in Game 5 and was 7 of 45 from three-point range! Needless to say, you should expect their shooting to improve. There’s room for improvement from their entire starting five, which collectively has scored a pathetic 60 points (total!) the L2 games. In particular, look to Max Strus, who has somehow gone 0 for 16 from the field, 11 of those misses coming from three-point range. Then you have Kyle Lowry, who was 0 for 6 in the last game and Victor Oladipo, who was 1 for 7. Jimmy Butler was 4 for 18 in Game 5 and has scored just 27 points the L3 games. Someone on this team HAS to step up! The Heat were winning at halftime in Game 5, 42-37. Then the wheels came off, similar to what happened for Boston in Game 1. Though no game in the series has been particularly close (only one decided by single digits), this is the largest spread we’ve seen. I don’t expect Miami to simply “roll over” as they are 7-1 ATS the L8 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. Also, there have been only two times that the Heat have lost three straight games this year. Once was before Thanksgiving, the other was a four-game slide in late March. Since the start of April, they’ve lost B2B games only once. That was the last round vs. Philadelphia and they responded by crushing the Sixers 120-85 in the next game. 10* Miami |
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05-25-22 | Celtics -1.5 v. Heat | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:30 ET): This has been a curious Eastern Conference Finals with the first four games all being blowouts. Each game of the series has seen a lead of at least 20 points. In Game 4, it was Boston’s turn as they jumped out to an 18-1 lead and never looked back. Miami missed its first 14 field goal attempts and its one point through eight minutes was the fewest in any playoff game in the L25 years. The Celtics were up 29-11 at the end of the first quarter and stretched their lead to 27 in the second and 32 in the third. The game was essentially over by halftime. Boston is now 5-0 SU/ATS off a SU loss this postseason. It would be easy to say “now it’s the Heat’s turn” as the series goes back to Miami for Game 5. The “Zig Zag Theory” has been in full force in this series and the Heat have only lost once at home (Game 2) this postseason. But let’s not forget a few things. Boston, despite not having the home court advantage, was the favorite coming into this series. They also had the East’s best point differential and net efficiency rating. They’ve been the team up at the half in three of the four games. If not for the third quarter meltdown, the Celtics would be up three games to one. It is my view that the Celtics are the better team and the oddsmakers seem to agree by installing them as Game 5 favorites. Miami had six players listed as questionable going into Game 4. Most ended up playing, but the starting five combined for only 18 points, the fewest in a playoff game going back to 1970-71. Obviously that number will go up tonight, but don’t expect the Heat’s bench to score anywhere close to 64 points again. If anything, the point totals from the starting five and reserves may simply reverse. Also, don’t expect Boston to shoot only 23.5% from three again. That they won Game 4 by 20 points, despite being -18 from three-point range is pretty amazing. Right now, the Celtics’ net efficiency rating in the playoffs is several points higher than Miami’s. Look for them to justify being favored in this spot as they take a 3-2 series lead. 10* Boston |
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05-25-22 | Feyenoord +0.25 v. Roma | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
9* Feyenoord Goal Line (3:00 ET): The inaugural season of the Europa Conference League has a Final of Roma (representing Serie A) vs. Feyenoord (representing the Dutch Eredivisie). Neither came close to winning their respective domestic leagues this season as Roma was sixth (23 points off the pace) while Feyenoord was third (12 points off). Serie A is rightfully considered the stronger league and thus Roma is unsurprisingly the favorite for this fixture. I did play Jose Mourinho’s side (Roma) in the semis (as a Game of the Year) when they defeated Leicester City 1-0. But Feyenoord has been the better side throughout this particular competition and thus is worth the play on the goal line Wednesday. Feyenoord has gone undefeated in the Europa Conference League, scoring 28 goals in the process. Remember that by playing them this way (on the goal line), all we need is Feyenoord to be even at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. A win would not surprise me considering how dominant the contingent from Rotterdam has been. They were unbeaten across their last 11 competitions before taking a meaningless loss in the Eredivisie finale. The Europa Conference League’s leading scorer is in Feyenoord’s ranks as Cyriel Dessers has tallied 10 goals. I think the big key here is Feyenoord’s attack, which is a stark contrast to the Roma approach under Mourinho. Serie A wasn’t particularly impressive in European football this season with no Italian club making the quarterfinals of the Champions League and only one making the quarterfinals of the Europa League. Roma did win for me in the Serie A finale, 3-0 over Torino, but before that they hadn’t prevailed in any of their previous five league games. Feyenoord scored three times in the first leg of its semifinal vs. Marseille and was pretty close to Ajax in xG this season in the Eredivisie. 9* Feyenoord (Goal Line) |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:00 ET): While the Mavericks are down 3-0 in the series and have lost the three games by a combined 43 points, things have actually been more competitive than they seem. The Mavs led Game 2 at the half and were only down one at the half in Game 3. They turned in the defensive effort I expected in the last game, holding Golden State to “just” 46.1% shooting after letting them shoot 56.1% in the first two games. Problem was that the Mavs only shot 40% themselves in Game 3, including a woeful 13 of 45 from three-point range. Take Luka Doncic (40 points) out of the equation and the Mavs’ offensive numbers from Game 3 get real ugly. With the season on the line, at home, I expect better tonight. Three Mavericks, Doncic plus Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie, combined for 86 of the team’s 100 points on Sunday. I’m expecting a more balanced effort tonight as the Mavs look to keep their season going. I’m pretty confident that we’ll be getting another strong effort at the defensive end as they are #1 in the league at home in scoring defense, allowing only 101.1 PPG. The three-point shooting is where the Mavs should really improve tonight. They hit 35% from downtown for the year, but have been well below that mark in two of the first three games of this series. This is just the third time all season that Dallas has been on a three-game losing streak. They have won and covered in the previous two spots, both of which came before X-Mas. Furthermore, the team has gone 19-5 ATS this season following a game where it scored 100 points or less. All signs point to improvement at the offensive end from the Mavs and given their season-long defensive prowess, I do think they get the win they need tonight. Golden State has failed to win both potential close out games on the road this postseason (allowed 130 PPG), including a 39-point loss in Memphis. 10* Dallas |
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05-22-22 | Manchester United v. Crystal Palace +0.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 37 h 46 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace Goal Line (11:00 AM ET): While most will be focused on the race for the Premier League Title (Man City or Liverpool), the race for the fourth Champions League spot (Tottenham or Arsenal), or the relegation battle (Burnley or Leeds), there is one other race to be settled in the EPL on Sunday. It is to determine who finishes sixth and joins either Tottenham or Arsenal (likely the latter) in the Europa League. The “contestants” are Manchester United, in action here, and West Ham. Man U enters the final matchday with a two point lead over the Hammers, but likely needs more than a draw here based on their inferior goal differential. I’m not convinced they get it. Crystal Palace has been one of the EPL’s more underrated sides this campaign. The Eagles may only sit 13th in the table, but they actually have a better GD than Manchester United. Not only do they sit seventh in the league in GD, they are sixth in expected points! Quite frankly, Palace has played better football this season than has United, especially of late. While the Eagles did just blow a 2-0 lead Thursday at a highly motivated Everton side (who was looking to secure safety from relegation), they had previously gone unbeaten in their prior four matches. Palace could finish as high as 10th with a win here, which would be their highest Premier League finish in some time. Remember that they made it all the way to the FA Cup semis as well. Manchester United hasn’t played in almost two weeks, when it suffered arguably its most humiliating defeat of the season, 4-0 at the hands of Brighton & Hove Albion. Honestly, it’s difficult to make the case that the Red Devils are deserving of the Europa League. They will finish with their worst ever point total in a Premier League season. No matter what happens Sunday, all will not be lost as they’ll still end up in the Europa Conference League if West Ham does end up jumping them in the table. Playing for a lame duck manager, I can just not see United doing better than a draw in this circumstance. Palace has been the better side and is deserving of a Top 10 finish. Play the underdog on the Goal Line. 10* Crystal Palace (Goal Line) |
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05-21-22 | Twins v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I’m taking the Royals +1.5. The first four meetings between these AL Central rivals this season have all been decided by two runs or fewer. Last night, it was the Twins picking up the 6-4 victory. The Royals took two of three in the previous series (also here in KC), so while they are (badly) lagging behind Minnesota in the standings (8.5 games back), they have shown they can compete with them. Sooner or later, you’ve got to figure these surprising Twins are going to come back “down to Earth.” This looks like a pretty even pitching matchup, at least on paper, with Brad Keller opposing Joe Ryan. It would seem very unfortunate that Keller has just one win in seven starts as he has a 2.89 ERA and 1.008 WHIP. At home, the numbers are even better. The team start record boils down to the fact that the Royals are barely scoring three runs per game in Keller starts. Eventually, that “worm has to turn.” Last time out, Keller again did not get the win, but it was the fifth time in seven outings he went at least six innings and allowed three runs or less (aka a “quality start.”) Keller did not pitch in the last series vs. Minnesota, but does have a 3.20 ERA in nine career starts against them. Ryan’s numbers are slightly better than Keller’s. He also did toss six shutout innings here at Kauffman Stadium last month, a game the Twins won 1-0. But recently, Ryan has struggled a little bit, failing to go a full five innings in two of his last three starts. He’s coming off a career-high 103 pitches against Cleveland last Sunday. It remains to be seen how a rookie fares off an outing like that. At the end of the day, this looks like a really even matchup to me and it’s nice to have an additional 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5) |
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05-19-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:30 ET): The Celtics had the scoring edge in three of the four quarters Tuesday night. Problem is they got annihilated in the third, getting outscored 39-14 by the Heat. While Boston may not get out to the same hot start we saw in Game 1 (62 points in the first half), I do like them to bounce back and at least cover the number here in Game 2. The status of both Marcus Smart and Al Horford remain in question for tonight, but Smart has been upgraded to probable. Regardless, without those two players, Boston looked like the better team for 75% of Game 1. Take the points. It was Jimmy Butler (41 points) again bailing out the Heat in Game 1. He was 17 of 18 from the free throw line though, which I don’t think can be repeated here. The Heat could be missing both Max Straus and Gabe Vincent, in addition to Kyle Lowry (out) tonight. I know that this team is undefeated at home in the postseason (7-0 SU) with all but one of those wins coming by double digits. But Boston is 3-0 ATS this postseason when down in the series and has not lost B2B games since the end of March. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS following a double digit loss this season and outscoring opponents by 8.4 PPG when off an ATS loss. The Celtics had some expected three-point regression in Game 1, but what was surprising was the fact they allowed 118 points. This was the #1 scoring defense in the NBA during the regular season. In its previous seven games, Miami had topped 108 only twice. The probable return of Smart, the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year, should certainly help at that end of the floor, especially when it comes to containing Butler. Even if Smart can’t go, Butler has only averaged 21.5 PPG off his two previous 40+ point efforts this postseason. There’s no rest advantage this time for Miami. 10* Boston |
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05-19-22 | Hamburger SV +0.5 v. Hertha Berlin | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
10* Hamburger SV Goal Line (2:30 ET): This is the relegation playoff in the Bundesliga. For those that are unfamiliar, here’s how it works. The team that finished with the third worst record in the top flight (in this case, Hertha Berlin) faces the third place finisher in the 2. Bundesliga (Hamburger SV). There are two legs (matches) played with each side hosting one. After both legs are complete, whomever is ahead on aggregate score will be in the top flight next season. Note that I’m playing the goal line here, feeling that the underdog (Hamburger) will do no worse than a draw. Typically, when you have a team from the top flight taking on a team from the second tier, you’d expect the former to have a significant edge. But I don’t think any such edge exists here. Hertha Berlin finished with the second worst goal differential in the Bundesliga this season, ahead of only last place Greuther Furth. Meanwhile, not only did Hamburger finish with the best GD down in the 2, they also made it all the way to the semifinals of DFB Pokal, the second most prestigious club title in all of Germany. So this side is battle-tested. They won their last five league games by an aggregate score of 16-5. After three straight years of finishing fourth down in the 2, Hamburger is ready to earn itself a promotion and will be all about this opportunity. Now when looking at the statistics, you must obviously factor in the level of competition. Only once in the last nine years has the team from the 2 won the Bundesliga Relegation Playoff. But Hamburger did defeat one top flight team (FC Koln) during their run in the DFB Pokal. Something else that must be considered is the way Hertha landed in this spot. It looked as if they would avoid the Relegation Playoff and claim safety, but Stuttgart getting a late goal (92nd minute) vs. Koln moved them ahead in the table. This is just a brutal spot for Hertha as up to nine first-teamers may miss this match, including the goaltender! Back the Red Shorts! 10* Hamburger SV (Goal Line) |
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05-17-22 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:45 ET): The Celtics, despite NOT having the home court advantage for the series, enter as favorites to win the Eastern Conference Finals vs. Miami. That makes sense to me as the Celtics had the best scoring differential and net efficiency rating among teams in the East, during the regular season. They were my pick to win the East before the playoffs started and after eliminating Brooklyn and Milwaukee, the team has given me no reason to come off that opinion. If the Celtics are to confirm their status as series favorites, it stands to reason they’ll win one of these first two games in MIami. I’m taking the points in Game 1. Miami is the top seed and hasn’t lost at home in the playoffs. But I don’t think they’ve faced what Boston has faced in the first two rounds. The Celtics have had to contain the likes of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat faced a subpar Hawks team in Round 1, then their Round 2 opponent (Philadelphia) was a bit of a mess as Joel Embiid was out the first two games and James Harden was never himself. I’m not sure the Heat can continue to rely so heavily on Jimmy Butler at the offensive end, especially against one of the premier defensive teams in the league. I know that Miami has a pretty nice scheduling edge heading into the series as they’ve been off for four days while Boston just won a Game 7 on Sunday. But it was a comfortable win for the Celtics 48 hours ago. The Celtics lost only once by more than three points in the second round and that was actually Game 1, when they were coming off a long layoff after sweeping the Nets in Round 1. The fact that Boston is the better team and series favorite is reflected in this number, but I just believe they’re set to “make good.” Even though the last series went seven games, no team posted a better net efficiency rating in Round 2 than did the C’s, who also have the best net overall efficiency rating in the playoffs. 8* Boston |
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05-16-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
10* Run Line LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): First off, note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Dodgers -1.5. The Dodgers pulled the proverbial “rabbit out of the hat” on Sunday, rallying from an early 4-0 deficit to defeat the Phillies 5-4 and thus avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep. Now it’s time for Dodger Blue to go on another big run. This is a team that’s already winning by an average of 2.1 runs per game this season. I know it’s a division foe and a familiar face on the mound that they’ll be facing here, but the Dodgers should win big. Lay the -1.5. Despite losses in five of their last seven games, I’ve still got LA rated as the best team in MLB (although the Yankees are certainly making their own case). Tonight the Dodgers have Tony Gonsolin on the mound. He’s 3-0 in six starts with a 1.33 ERA and 1.074 WHIP. Gonsolin has allowed only five runs, one of them unearned, in 27 IP. Last time out, which was at Pittsburgh, he allowed just one hit over five scoreless frames. Opponents are hitting just .168 off Gonsolin, who has some revenge on his mind from a start in Arizona on 4/26 where the D’backs ultimately prevailed 5-3. Madison Bumgarner is enjoying something of a renaissance for Arizona as his 1.78 ERA is his lowest through seven starts for his career. The previous best came in 2013. I do not expect MadBum to continue to pitch that well moving forward. He didn’t face the Dodgers in the previous series, but is 15-15 all-time against them in 38 matchups. The D’backs come into this series off B2B losses to the Cubs and have scored just 11 runs total in their L4 games. 10* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5) |
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05-16-22 | Giants v. Rockies +1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
9* Run Line Colorado (8:40 ET): Though they’ve had the Rockies’ number the last couple seasons, this shapes up as a tough spot for the Giants, who were just rocked last night in St. Louis. First off, please note that this is a run line selection where I am backing Colorado +1.5. The Rocks have revenge here for a prior three-game sweep, which occurred out in San Francisco. That three-game sweep saw the Rockies get outscored 24-8. Here at home, where they’re obviously a much better ballclub, I’m willing to wager that they can at least stick within a run. Colorado is 12-7 at Coors Field this season, 2-0 as an underdog of +125 to +175. They are also 5-1 in one-run games, which is why they are .500 overall despite a -28 run differential. Moving forward, the Rockies are probably due to regress in one-run games, which is another reason to take them on the RL here. Speaking of regression though, that’s what I’ve projected for the Giants from the very start of the season. There’s simply no way they are going to match LY’s success at the betting window. A day after being shutout, SF was buried Sunday night, giving up 15 runs. When Alex Wood opposed Antonio Senzatela last week in San Fran, it was obviously Wood that got the upper-hand as he allowed just an unearned run over 5 ⅓ innings. Senzatela was charged with five (runs) in just 3 ⅔, but will be better in the rematch as he’s been more effective at home (4-0 TSR, 2.37 ERA). The Rockies came into Sunday with the highest batting average vs. lefties (in all of MLB) and Wood has a 5.32 career ERA against them. Having lost 11 in a row to the Giants, look for the Rockies to come out rather motivated Monday evening. Again, no worse than a one-run loss here. 9* Run Line Colorado |
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05-15-22 | Atalanta +0.75 v. AC Milan | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -111 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
10* Atalanta Goal Line (12:00 ET): There are implications for both sides in this matchup of traditional Serie A powers on Sunday. Obviously, AC Milan is looking to extend its lead (currently just two points) over Inter in the race for the Scudetto (league championship). Atalanta (currently) eighth is just trying to get in the mix for European football next season, something they have been a part of each of the last five seasons. I see the underdogs escaping with at least a point in this critical match. Just to be safe, play them on the goal line. Though they are tied with both Roma and Fiorentina for the sixth most points in Serie A (59), Atalanta has a negative head to head record vs. both of those European contenders, so right now they are on the outside looking in when it comes to continental football next season. With both Roma and Fiorentina taking on bottom of the table sides this weekend, picking up points here is a must for La Dea, who has the 5th best goal differential in the league right now (+20). I’m a little perplexed as to how they find themselves down in eighth place. They have 20 different goal scorers this season (most in Serie A) and have picked up the third most away points. I won with them last week as they easily beat Spezia by a final score of 3-1. Though in control for their first Scudetto in 11 years, AC Milan is actually just third in the league in both goal difference and xPts (expected points), so they should feel a little bit fortunate to be at the top of the table. They’ve won four straight Serie A matches, though one could argue they’ve been a little lucky to win all of the last three. They conceded the first goal of the match against both Lazio and Verona and against the former didn’t take the lead until stoppage time. Two weeks ago vs. Fiorentina, the lone goal of the match did not come until the 82nd minute. These are great odds on Atalanta here. 10* Atalanta (Goal Line) |
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05-14-22 | VfL Bochum v. Union Berlin -1.25 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -56 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10* Union Berlin Goal Line (9:30 AM ET): It’s all in front of Union on the final matchday of the Bundesliga season. A win here would guarantee the Iron Ones a spot in next year’s Europa League and possibly their highest finish ever in the German top flight. It has been a breakout campaign for this side in 2021/22. Union comes into Saturday sixth in the table, only one point behind Freiburg and three behind fourth place Leipzig. Because of goal differential, Union has no chance of overtaking Leipzig for the fourth Champions League spot, but they’ll want to leave nothing to chance here as 7th place Koln sits just two points back with a relatively similar GD. I think Union will show no mercy on their opponents, who have no reason to be motivated for this fixture. Union is unbeaten over its last six Bundesliga matches. Ironically, the only one they didn’t win was against Greuther Furth, who sits at the bottom of the table, ready to be relegated. After that disappointing 1-1 draw, the Iron Ones stormed back to destroy Freiburg 4-1 last week, a massive result for both sides. Now if Freiburg fails to win this week at Leverkusen, Union can jump them into fifth with a win. I’m confident here that the favorite can win this one by multiple goals. A big reason for that confidence, as alluded to earlier, is that Bochum has absolutely NOTHING on the line here in this final matchday. Promoted back into the top flight this season, Bochum’s only goal was survival and they achieved that rather easily in what will be a mid-table finish. Bochum is coming off B2B victories, a 4-3 shocker over Dortmund (won on a late penalty after the equalizer came four minutes earlier), then an undeserved 2-1 result last week over relegation threatened Arminia Bielefeld on an 89th minute “own goal.” Their hosts on Saturday, with much to play for, will show no mercy and win by multiple goals. 10* Union Berlin (Goal Line) |
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05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs +2 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:30 ET): Top seed Phoenix is coming off a blowout win (110-80) and can close the series out with a win tonight. Problem is the Suns are 0-7 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The home team has yet to lose a game in this series (same with Miami-Philadelphia) and as previously mentioned by me, the big difference for Dallas when they are at home is their defense really improves (101.3 PPG allowed). They held the Suns to 94 and 101 points in the first two games here. I’m taking the points in Game 6 as the Mavs likely force a Game 7. As you’d expect from a team that scored only 80 points, the Mavs shot dreadfully on Tuesday night, making only 38% of their total field goal attempts, including 8 of 32 from three-point range. In Games 3 and 4 here at home, they shot around 44% overall (still not that great) but also made a total of 33 threes. I am expecting vast improvement from beyond the arc tonight. Outside of Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson, the rest of the Mavs scored only 31 points on 8 of 31 shooting in Game 5. As I say so often, role players typically perform much better at home. It should also be pointed out that in two of its three losses in this series, Dallas has largely been the better team in the first half. They led at halftime in Game 2 (lost by 20) and then were also up with three minutes to go in the first half in Game 5. The team is an outstanding 18-4 ATS this season after being held under 100 points the previous game (28-9 ATS L3 seasons). The season is on the line tonight, they are at home and without question will be better than they were Tuesday. 8* Dallas |
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05-10-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 80-110 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
10* Dallas (10:00 ET): Both of Tuesday’s series have seen the underdog storm back to even the series at two games apiece. In both instances, the home team has also won all four games. In this one, most were writing Dallas off entering Game 3, but not me as I cashed the Mavs last Friday (10* Game of the Week) as they won 103-94. Then in Game 4, I was holding an Under ticket and had to sweat that out. Scoring plummeted in the second half (thankfully) and that Under bet was a winner by three points. I’m 3-0 in the series as I had the Over in Game 1. Now for the first time I’ll “repeat” a previous bet and take the Mavs (plus the points) in Game 5. Dallas has led at the half each of the last three games and really dominated the last two from wire to wire. Now I realize the series now moves back to Phoenix, a place where the Mavs have not won in three years. But I think the defense and three-point shooting we saw in the two home games can “travel.” Again, this is a team that took two of three games in the first round vs. Utah without Luka Doncic. Phoenix was overdue for a “correction” in the shooting department after making 50% or better in each of the first eight playoff games. Sure enough, Dallas held them to 44.7% and 46.4% in the L2 games. The Suns made only nine threes in Game 4, which was also overdue. Shockingly poor play from Chris Paul also contributed to the two Mavs’ wins. Paul had seven turnovers in Game 3 then committed four first half fouls in Game 4. He played less than four minutes in the second half. Obviously, that’s unlikely to happen again here. But this just seems like too many points to lay in what should be a closely contested matchup. Looking at the betting percentages, the Suns have the look of a very “public” side in Game 5 and a team you’d want to fade. Dallas has seized the “momentum” and is 42-18-1 ATS its last 61 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of .600 or greater. 10* Dallas |
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05-10-22 | 76ers +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 85-120 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): All of a sudden, we’ve got a series on our hands as the Sixers won both games at home to even the series up at two games apiece. Now Miami is still favored, in this game and the series, as it still possesses the homecourt edge. The Heat endured two brutal shooting games in Philadelphia, making only 14 of 65 attempts from behind the three-point line. Compare that to the 76ers, who were 16 of 33 (48.5%) in both games. While you’ve got to expect better three-point shooting from Miami (the #1 three-point shooting team in the reg season) at home, it’s pretty clear to me that the series has changed dramatically since Joel Embiid returned. Take the points in Game 5. You also can’t understate the performance Philadelphia got from James Harden in Game 4. Harden scored 31, after averaging only 17.6 PPG in Gms 1-3, and hit the critical three in the 4Q. Embiid had 24 points and 11 rebounds, his second “double-double” in as many games since returning from injury. The other three starters also all scored in double figures. Both Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris have proven that they can be consistent contributors offensively. If you’re thinking leaving Philadelphia will substantially hurt the Sixers, think again. Yes, they lost Games 1 & 2 here. But they actually have a better SU record on the road (29-17) than at home (28-18) this season. While Philly likely has the two best players in its ranks and is getting a variety of contributions offensively, Miami isn’t getting much beyond Jimmy Butler right now. Butler has seen his scoring go up in every game this series and had 40 pts in Game 4. But the rest of the team went just 25 of 62 (40%) from the field. In Game 3, Butler had 33 pts and the rest of the team scored just 46. Kyle Lowry has been a non-factor since coming back from injury while Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have both been inconsistent. While the home team has won all four games in this series, the Heat have only outscored the Sixers by two points. I’m expecting a close one on Tuesday and will be taking the points with the hotter team. 8* Philadelphia |
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05-10-22 | Liverpool v. Aston Villa +1.25 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 50 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
7* Aston Villa Goal Line (3:00 ET): First off, please note I’m taking Aston Villa on the goal line. So a win by them, a draw or 1-goal loss would all equal a winning ticket! Liverpool’s chances of winning the Premier League title took a serious hit last week when they ended up sharing the points with Tottenham (1-1 draw) and Man City thrashed Newcastle 5-0. Those results leave the Reds three points back in the chase for the EPL title. So a win here would bring them level, although Man City still has a match in hand. Keep in mind though that this is a busy time for Liverpool as they seek to become the first English side EVER to win a “quadruple” (EPL, Carabao Cup, FA Cup, Champions League). They’ve already bagged the Carabao Cup, but sweeping the other three pieces of hardware now looks exceedingly tough. Man City no longer is involved in the Champions League, so their full attention is on the EPL. Liverpool’s opponent in the UCL Final, Real Madrid, has the La Liga title all wrapped up and thus can turn its full attention to being champions of Europe. On top of that, Liverpool must face Chelsea this weekend in the FA Cup final. All things considered, I just can’t see the Reds winning today (on the road) by more than one goal. Aston Villa enters Tuesday’s fixture on a three-match unbeaten streak, including B2B wins over Norwich City and Burnley. Those are obviously bottom of the table sides, but let us not forget what happened the last time the Lions hosted Liverpool in league play. It was a 7-2 thrashing by them! Now Liverpool has since avenged that defeat with three wins over Villa, but it’s fair to question the motivation and tactics of Jurgen Klopp’s side today. Aston Villa still has hopes of a top half finish this season and like I said earlier, they’ll keep this one within a goal (at worst). 7* Aston Villa (Goal Line) |
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05-09-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cleveland (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Guardians +1.5. The White Sox come into this series on a six-game win streak. This despite having not scored more than four runs in any of those games! Clearly, the offense isn’t producing as much as you’d like to see, but the team is obviously getting exemplary pitching. The White Sox have allowed a total of just NINE runs during their six-game win streak. However, with Cleveland’s ability to score runs (#2 in AL) and the fact they swept Chicago the last series between these teams, going with the RL here seems like sound strategy. The previous series occurred in Cleveland and the White Sox didn’t do much scoring there either. They put up only five runs in the three games. Even after the six straight wins, the last three of which came in Boston, Chicago is still only averaging 3.2 runs per game. They are hitting just .214 at home and eventually the string of strong pitching performances is going to run out. Starting Monday’s game will be Michael Kopech, who still has yet to record a decision after five previous outings. He did not face Cleveland in the previous series nor has he lasted more than five innings in any start. Coming off B2B wins over Toronto, the Guardians will turn to Zach Plesac tonight. Plesac has had a bit of a rough beginning to 2022, but his best outing (by far) came against the White Sox on 4/21 when he went 6 ⅔ innings and gave up just two runs (one unearned). Something else I find interesting about this AL Central matchup is the Guardians have a +10 run differential. The White Sox, who are one ahead in the loss column, have a -13 run differential. Cleveland puts up 4.9 runs per game on the road and that’s all they may need here, especially when factoring in the RL. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5) |
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05-08-22 | Dodgers v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
9* Run Line Chi Cubs (7:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Cubs +1.5. They were swept in Saturday’s doubleheader (outscored 13-2) and obviously are up against arguably the best team in all of baseball. But I think the home team can avoid the sweep tonight, or at the very worst lose by just a run. Marcus Stroman will be starting this game for the Cubbies. He faces a fearsome Dodgers lineup, but has a 1.096 WHIP his L3 starts after tossing seven shutout innings of two-hit ball his last time out. The Cubs won that game 2-0 as +205 ML underdogs over Milwaukee. So Stroman has pulled off a huge upset before. He’s actually off B2B quality starts, both on the road. I know the team has been slumping recently, but Stroman absolutely gives them a chance Sunday night. It’s worth noting that the Dodgers only had three hits in Game 2 yesterday, benefiting from nine walks and some cluster luck. You also have to think that rookie Seiya Suzuki will start to return to early season form for the Cubs. Suzuki began the year hitting at a torrid clip, producing an OBP over .500 and OPS over 1.200. He’s been in a slump ever since that 21-0 win over the Pirates. Assuming he turns it around, the Cubs’ offense should be in good shape, even against someone like Walker Buehler, who has admittedly been lights out for the Dodgers. One thing I noticed with LA is that they are only 4-3 so far as road favorites of -175 or more and one of the wins came yesterday. 9* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5) |
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05-08-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
7* Run Line Miami (4:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Marlins +1.5. This bet would have cashed in each of the first three games of this series as Miami lost by just one run in each of the first two games, then pulled away late for a commanding 8-0 victory on Saturday. Despite currently being a game under .500, the Marlins have a positive run differential (+9), which isn’t all that far off from the Padres’ +14. Obviously, yesterday’s result heavily factors into the “closeness” of the two run differentials. But I believe these teams are a lot more evenly matched than the ML odds suggest. San Diego’s Joe Musgrove has gotten off to a tremendous start to the season as he’s 4-0 (5-0 TSR) with a 1.97 ERA and 0.906 WHIP. But as we saw yesterday, the Padres’ bullpen leaves a lot to be desired. It gave up five runs in the top of the ninth, which essentially sealed the game. The Miami offense has actually hit pretty well on the road against right-handers, so don’t be surprised if they can get to Musgrove early. Musgrove has certainly benefited from facing the Reds (twice) and the Pirates (MLB’s two worst teams) over his L3 starts. Saturday marked the first time this season that San Diego was shut out as Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer rank 1-2 in MLB in both batting average and on base percentage. But remember this lineup continues to be without Fernando Tatis Jr and it is hitting a collective .205 at home so far. The Padres have only mustered five runs in the first three games of the series. One of those runs was unearned and they’ve had just five hits in each of the three games. No one in the bottom five of the order is hitting .200 the L2 games. So look for Marlins’ starter Trevor Rogers, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, to turn things around here. Rogers has a 1.69 ERA and 1.062 WHIP on the road thus far. 7* Run Line Miami (+1.5) |
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05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:30 ET): The Warriors were able to wrest home court advantage away from the Grizzlies, taking Game 1 by a score of 117-116. Having bet the Over, that result sat well with me. I sat out Game 2 (no play), which was won by Memphis 106-101 and not without controversy. Dillon Brooks injuring Gary Payton II has resulted in BOTH players being out for Game 3 (Brooks is suspended). We saw both home teams come out fired up last night in NBA playoff action and though not down 0-2 in the series like the Sixers & Mavs, I expect the Warriors to come out just as fired up here. Another difference between the Dubs and last night’s home sides is that we are having to lay points. Not a concern of mine as they are, in my estimation, clearly the better team here. Memphis was fortunate to advance out of the first round, let alone take the series in six games, They overcame double-digit deficits in the fourth quarter in three of those wins. Losing Brooks is going to be significant as he had three 23+ point games vs. the Timberwolves. I also don’t see Ja Morant matching his Game 2 production (47 points) tonight as he made more threes on Tuesday (five) than he did in the entire first round series (four). Speaking of three-point shooting, the Warriors were historically bad in Game 2, making only 18.4 percent. It was the worst three-point shooting performance in the playoffs in franchise history. Klay Thompson was 2 for 12 while Steph Curry was 3 for 11. To say they’ll improve dramatically tonight seems like an obvious statement. Memphis, despite Morant’s 47 points, didn’t shoot that well either in the last game. But Golden State clearly has more room for improvement here and they are 34-10 SU at home (3-0 in Rd 1), outscoring visiting teams by more than 10 PPG on the year. They’ve held the rebounding edge in both games. 8* Golden State |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 11 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:30 ET): The Mavericks seem to have no answers for the Suns as they’ve lost the first two games of this series by 7 and 20 points. The first game wasn’t really that close as Dallas was down double digits most of the way and trailed by 16 with just five minutes remaining. It’s not just these two games where the Mavs have struggled against the Suns either. Going back to the beginning of 2020, they’ve lost 11 straight head to head matchups and only covered the spread twice. But now the series moves back to Dallas where the Mavs are 31-13 SU this year and giving up only 101.5 PPG. Game 2 was a little different than Game 1 in the sense that this time the Mavs were only down six entering the fourth quarter. But then Chris Paul took over and it turned into another blowout situation. Dallas actually led at halftime, 60-58, but simply could not match the hot shooting of the Suns, who finished the game at a blistering 64.5% from the floor. Even if the series wasn’t moving to Dallas for Game 3, you know there is no way Phoenix can match that kind of overall shooting percentage. They were also 52% (13 of 25) from three-point range. Paul and Devin Booker were a combined 22 of 35 from the floor. No player on the Suns shot below 50% for the game! C’mon man! From previous analysis that I’ve done, you might recall that teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series do quite well when returning home for Game 3. Not necessarily in the first round of this year’s playoffs, but historically teams in this spot are hitting well over 60% ATS. The Mavs will essentially be playing for their season here as no team in NBA history has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit. Considering Dallas has shot 41 percent from three-point range so far in this series, I think they can get the job done in Game 3. They beat Utah twice without Luka Doncic in Round 1 and the role players will play better at home. 10* Dallas |
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05-05-22 | West Ham United v. Eintracht Frankfurt | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* West Ham +0.0 (3:00 ET): Neither of these two sides has any chance at gaining entry into next season’s Champions League through their respective leagues. West Ham currently sits seventh in the Premier League table, 11 points adrift of Arsenal, who just beat the Hammers 2-1 on Sunday (a win on the end as well!) Eintracht Frankfurt sits 11th in the Bundesliga and it’s a mathematical impossibility for them to finish top four. So winning the Europa League (which sends you to the UCL next season) now has an added importance for both clubs. Eintracht Frankfurt won the first leg, 2-1 in London, giving them a surprising one-goal edge going into the second leg. What’s a little fascinating about Frankfurt’s run to the Europa League semis, which has seen them oust Real Betis and Barcelona in the knockout stages, is that they haven’t won a single Bundesliga match going back to March 13th! They were just shut out 2-0 by Leverkusen on Monday and I don’t think the short turnaround does them any favors for this second leg. Monday marked the fourth time since March 20th that Frankfurt was held goalless on the domestic front. They’ve also gone six straight matches without picking up a win here at home. So West Ham absolutely has a chance to erase this one goal deficit on Thursday. I’m taking them here on the “draw no bet line” just to be safe, but I expect them to win here. To be clear, all we need for this bet to cash is the Hammers to be winning the match at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. If they are up by only a goal, there will be added time to decide who moves onto the Final, but that will be no concern of ours. The Hammers are pretty clearly the better side in this fixture. Given the season they have had in the Bundesliga, it would be quite the shock if Frankfurt was playing any European football next season. 10* West Ham (Draw No Bet) |
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05-04-22 | 76ers +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 103-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here. Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. While both teams figure to improve from distance tonight, I think it’s clear that the 76ers have more room to improve and it’s difficult for me to envision them being any worse than they were offensively in the first game. After being held 100 points the previous game, the Sixers have gone an impressive 16-4 straight up and 13-7 against the spread this season. They are also on a 35-17-1 ATS run following a double digit loss. Miami’s only postseason loss thus far came by a single point, on the road, but it is notable they’ve failed to score more than 110 points in any of the last four games. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, Philadelphia was able to beat the Heat in the final regular season matchup, despite not having Embiid AND Harden. Going back to Philly’s ability to bounce back from a bad loss, the last time they were off a double digit loss where they were held below 100 points was Game 6 against the Raptors. They ended up closing out the series with a 132-97 road win. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia |
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05-04-22 | Braves +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
7* Run Line Atlanta (1:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line selections where I am backing the Braves +1.5. After taking Monday’s opener, the Braves lost both games of yesterday’s doubleheader. Today, they’ll be facing Tyler Megill, who in his last start combined with four Mets’ relievers to deliver just the second no-hitter in franchise history. You may recall that I faded them (the Mets) the following day (Phillies were my 10* Game of the Month) and that won. The Mets are obviously off to a great start while the defending World Series Champs (Atlanta) are floundering a bit. But I like the Braves on the RL here. Atlanta lost the first game yesterday by just a single run. The second game did see them get blanked 3-0 as they had no answers for Carlos Carrasco. But, the way I see it, the biggest problem facing the Braves right now is a lack of timely hitting. They are hitting just .281 with RISP this season (27th) and yesterday saw them go a putrid 3 for 29 when a runner was on base. You’ve got to think they’ll turn around in that department sooner rather than later. Given how Megill pitched in his last start, you may be thinking now is not that time. But remember Megill only went five innings as part of that no-no. More timely hitting, an additional run and a half to work with, plus Ian Anderson starting sounds like a great combo to bet on. Anderson has been great in his two previous road starts, delivering a 2.31 ERA and 0.686 WHIP. After a rough first start (against Cincinnati!), Anderson has really settled in, allowing 2 ER or less each of the L3 starts. I know the Mets have won their first seven series (tied for the third longest streak in the NL since ‘77), but today seems like a great buy low/sell high situation on these two NL East rivals. The Braves are certainly better than what they’ve shown thus far. 7* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) |
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05-02-22 | 76ers +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): So the big story here is that the 76ers will be without Joel Embiid, though reports have surfaced he could be back as early as Game 3. But that obviously doesn’t help Philly tonight. What does help is having James Harden. I think that the market has slightly overreacted to the news of Embiid’s absence as the Sixers were bet out as far as +8.5 for Game 1 in Miami. Remember that we’ve seen Dallas win without Luka Doncic, Phoenix win without Devin Booker and more recently (yday) Milwaukee go to Boston and win without Khris Middleton. Not saying the Sixers pull the outright upset here, but the spread seems too large. It’s not as if Miami is 100 percent healthy right now either. Kyle Lowry is still out while Jimmy Butler missed the close out game vs. Atlanta and Tyler Herro has been battling a cold. Butler and Herro will reportedly play tonight. But with so many players less than 100%, can the Heat score enough to cover this spread? I don’t think so. Harden should put up monster numbers for Philadelphia and it’s worth noting he averaged 10.5 assists per game in the first round vs. Toronto. Tyrese Maxey can also help fill the scoring void left by Embiid’s absence. Maxey scored 38 in Game 1 vs. Toronto, and is third in the league in three-point efficiency. Only six players took part in all four 76ers-Heat regular season matchups. I think it is worth noting though that without Embiid and Harden, the Sixers defeated the Heat 113-106 (as eight-point underdogs) back on March 21st. Now that was at home. But they shot 50% overall as a team and were 40% from three-point range. Also, the Sixers’ defense was outstanding against the Heat in the regular season as Gabe Vincent was the only Miami player to average more than 20 PPG against them. The four games saw the Heat only outscore the Sixers by four total points. Expect Game 1 to be close. 8* Philadelphia |
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04-30-22 | FC Koln v. FC Augsburg | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
9* FC Koln (9:30 AM ET): Augsburg is somewhat fortunate to be safe from relegation from the moment, considering they are third from the bottom in expected points (xPts) and have an expected goal differential of -22.34 (actual GD is -11). Last week’s 2-0 win over Bochum moved Augsburg seven points clear of the relegation playoff, so they’re in good shape with just three fixtures left in the Bundesliga season and one of them against last place Greuther Furth. But their current position also sets them up for a nice fade this week as they face FC Koln, who is still in contention for the Europa Conference League entering matchweek 32. Quite frankly, Koln may have even bigger European dreams than the Europa Conference league right now. They are still only five points back of the top four in the Bundesliga and a win here *could* move them into fifth in the table, although that depends on FC Union Berlin’s result Friday (not complete as of this writing) and what Freiburg does (vs. Hoffenheim) later on Saturday. But there’s no sense relying on those sides not to pick up points if you’re Koln. Playing any kind of European football next season would be a bit of a dream come true for Koln, considering they were in the relegation playoff at the end of last season. Koln won last week, 3-1 over Arminia Bielefeld, which was their third straight win. They’ve scored three times in all three wins and now face an Augsburg side which has the second highest xGA (expected goals allowed) in the league this season. (Only Bielefeld is worse). There’s definitely some defensive regression in store for Augsburg down the stretch as they’ve conceded 11 goals fewer than expected this season, the third highest “overachievement” in all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues. This is a great spot to fade Augsburg. 9* FC Koln (Goal Line - Draw No Bet) |
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04-30-22 | Verona v. Cagliari | Top | 2-1 | Win | 107 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
10* Hellas Verona (9:00 AM ET): There were some favorable midweek results for Verona with Fiorentina losing 4-0 to Udinese and Atalanta drawing Torino. That means Verona’s faint hopes of playing European football next season are still alive, though in eighth place and six points back of Atalanta, it will require one heck of a finish to get there. This week’s fixture vs. struggling Cagliari is basically a must win for the visitors, who could use the three points regardless, just to ensure a top half finish in Serie A. Considering Cagliari’s poor form as of late, I expect Verona to get the win here and think they are a great value on the goal line (where a draw = no bet). Cagliari is fighting for its life right now as they are only three points ahead of suddenly surging Salernitana and Genoa in the race to avoid relegation. The remaining fixtures seem favorable as Rossoblu will face two of the sides (Salernitana, Venezia) currently in the relegation zone. But this looks to be a bad matchup as Verona is a good pressing team, something Cagliari struggles with mightily and the Rossoblu are also in line for some defensive regression as they are third from the bottom in Serie A in xGA (expected goals allowed). Verona’s matches have been much more high scoring compared to last season, which was inevitable. That said, they’ve notched more than one goal just one time in their last seven. This is where they should find the back of the net a few times, however, for the reasons mentioned above. After recording an impressive 2-1 victory over Atalanta two weeks ago, Verona had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Sampdoria last week. But most metrics (possession, shots, xG) say they should have won that fixture. With just one win in their last seven, the metrics aren’t saying many positive things about Cagliari right now and I expect them to lose Saturday. 10* Hellas Verona (Goal Line - Draw No Bet) |
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04-29-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
8* Run Line Baltimore (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a RUN LINE selection where I am backing the Orioles at +1.5. It was obviously not a good series vs. the Yankees for the O’s as they lost all three games by three or more runs. But returning to Camden Yards to face the Red Sox is a far more favorable matchup. Boston is closer to Baltimore in the AL East standings than they are to any of the top three teams. The Red Sox also failed to score yesterday, which was the 7th time in the L10 games they were held to two runs or fewer. The home team will do no worse than a one-run loss in tonight’s series opener. Now one-run games have not been kind to the Red Sox thus far as they’ve lost five of them so far (tied for most in all of MLB) including four in just the last eight games. Yesterday was the latest as they fell 1-0 in Toronto, a game they ended up with just four hits. Boston lost three of four overall in that series and could again be without designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who also missed yesterday’s contest. The starting pitcher for tonight will be veteran southpaw Rich Hill, who has yet to make it through five full innings and the end result is a 1.615 WHIP. I think Baltimore can get to him. The Orioles will counter Hill with one of their top prospects, Kyle Bradish, who is making his big league debut. I like the spot given Boston’s recent struggles at the plate. Plus the Red Sox are unfamiliar with Bradish, who allowed just four runs in three starts for Triple-A Norfolk to start the season. On the flip side, the O’s are quite familiar with Hill. Though they ended up being swept in NY, the O’s outhit the Yankees yesterday, only to be undone by FIVE errors in the field. They’ll play cleaner today and also have the edge over Boston when it comes to the bullpen. O’s relievers have a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5) |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz are facing elimination at home in Game 6, something they would not have expected after previously “stealing” the home court advantage away with a Game 1 win in Dallas. The Mavericks played the first three games of this series without superstar Luka Doncic, but won two of the three. After losing Game 4 (here in Salt Lake City) by a single points, the Mavs bounced back and romped to a 102-77 victory as three-point favorites. I know it was a terrible call by me taking Utah in that game, but I still believe they are the better team and we are getting a great price on them at home. After some concern he’d miss Game 6, Jazz PG Deron Williams is likely to play tonight. But I think that the bigger boost comes from returning home where the team is 30-13 SU on the year and outscoring visiting teams by 9.2 PPG. Dallas is not as staunch defensively on the road as it is at home and the Jazz are going to shoot MUCH better from three-point land tonight than they did in Game 5. How could they not? Their 3 of 30 performance on Tuesday was the worst percentage in NBA Playoff history! In the regular season, Utah was tied for the most efficient offense in the NBA and they average 116.4 PPG at home. It has been rather shocking to see them get held to 104 points or less in four of the five games in this series. They did shoot 56.5% from the floor here in Game 3 though, so they’ve shown to be capable. Game 5 marked the first time in the series that the Jazz were underdogs. Considering where the lines were set in the first four games, needing only a SU win tonight seems like a great value. I look for Utah to force a Game 7. 10* Utah |
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04-27-22 | Brewers v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Run Line Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): So the Pirates have made a pitching change for tonight, electing to go with Dillon Peters in place of Bryce Wilson, who has been scratched for a still unspecified reason. I’m sticking with the Bucs to stay within one run of the Brewers on Wednesday night, taking them on the run line. I know that things are looking rather dire in Pittsburgh at this moment, as the team lost again to Milwaukee last night, this time by a score of 12-8. The Bucs are now 0-4 in 2022 against the Brew Crew, but overall things may not be as bad as they seem in the Steel City. The club is 8-9 overall and has a winning record here at PNC Park. Their YTD run differential of -32, third worst in all of MLB, is largely a byproduct of the one 21-0 drubbing they suffered at the hands of the Cubs over the weekend. It should be noted that while the Bucs did have that horrific loss on Saturday, they won the other three games at Wrigley Field. They are 8-5 when NOT facing the Brewers. Also, coming off a loss, the Pirates are 5-3. I think they’re due to beat Milwaukee here and Peters should pitch well. So far, he’s offered the club 10 ⅓ scoreless innings in relief with eight strikeouts. He’s picked up three wins. Milwaukee may have scored 12 runs yesterday, but they are still only hitting .211 for the year and have four one-run victories to their name. It’s hard to continuously beat the same team, especially a division rival, and this is where I see the Brew Crew “slipping up.” Aaron Ashby had four walks in his only previous start and allowed three runs in four innings. He also gave up a home run. Before last night’s win, the Brewers had not finished a game with double digit hits since the season opener. So expect their offensive production to go down here and Ashby isn’t someone you can expect to pitch deep into a game. Again, the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5) |
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04-27-22 | Villarreal +1.5 v. Liverpool | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
10* Villarreal +1.5 (3:00 ET): Liverpool is obviously playing as well as any side in the entire world right now as they’ve won 12 straight here in Anfield and 14 of 15 overall. But it was a bit of a struggle Sunday against relegation-threatened Everton, despite the match ending up as a 2-0 final. The Reds were tied 0-0 until the 62 minute and now face their fourth fixture in the last 11 days and it’s a big one against Villarreal, the “surprise” semi finalist of the Champions League. The Yellow Submarine are fresh off a shocking upset of Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals and must be taken seriously in this tie. I’ll go with them on the goal line in the first leg, thinking they can easily keep this one within a one-goal margin. Villarreal may only currently be seventh in La Liga, but don’t let that fool you. They have the third best YTD goal differential in the Spanish top flight and won last year’s Europa League. Unlike the other three semifinalists though, there is no clear path back into next season’s Champions League for the Yellow Submarine. They won’t make the top four in La Liga, so all their focus is on this fixture whereas Liverpool must also stay concerned with its ongoing battle for the top spot in the Premier League, not to mention the FA Cup Final against Chelsea in a couple weeks. Already in the knockout stage, Villarreal has toppled two heavyweights, Juventus and Bayern. This is their biggest mountain to climb, but they should be up for the challenge. Only once since the start of December have the Yellow Submarine been beaten by more than one goal. Liverpool did concede four times in the quarterfinals to Benefica, a much lesser side. While Gerard Moreno is out for Villarreal, the schedule sets up quite nicely for them here as they were off last weekend and haven’t been on the pitch in over a week. They’re also unbeaten in five straight competitions, having scored in all of them. 10* Villarreal Goal Line (+1.5) |
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04-26-22 | Hawks +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:30 ET): The Raptors, who were facing elimination, treated us well last night. So give me the Hawks plus the points, in the same situation on Tuesday. Now it’s not been a great series for Trae Young thus far as he’s averaging just 16.5 PPG and hitting only 20.8% from three-point range. But he is responsible for the Hawks’ only win here vs. Miami (hit the game-winning basket in Game 3) and you’ve got to believe he’s got one good game in him. With the team’s season on the line tonight, now is the perfect time for Young to “show up” and I think he will. As a team, the Hawks have not been held under 100 pts in B2B games since early January. They finished the regular season tied with Utah for #1 in offensive efficiency. So I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to rebound from the dismal 86-point effort in Game 4. Recall I had the Heat in that game. What’s changed here is that Atlanta’s season is now on the line and we’re getting a healthy amount of points. I know they failed to cover the spread in the first two games here in Miami, but it seems as if the public sentiment is totally against them coming into tonight and it’s a great chance to fire on an undervalued underdog. Remember that Miami is without PG Kyle Lowry. It didn’t seem to matter in Game 4, but not having Lowry is significant. Clint Capella returned for Atlanta in the last game and while he had just two points and seven rebounds, I expect him to play better tonight. It goes without saying that you should expect more points here from Young, who had only nine points in Game 4 and didn’t make a single free throw or two-point basket. Jimmy Butler had 36 for the Heat, but he typically follows up a big game with a subpar one. That’s a bigger deal now that Lowry is out. I can’t guarantee that the Hawks keep their season alive, but they’ll at least cover tonight. 10* Atlanta |
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04-25-22 | Jazz +3 v. Mavs | Top | 77-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:30 ET): This will be the first time in the series that the Jazz are underdogs, so I’ll pounce on the opportunity as a win tonight would mean they can close the Mavs out in Salt Lake City on Thursday. Utah has failed to cover each of the last three games in this series, and 12 of 15 going back to the end of the regular season. But again, this is a rare opportunity where you’re getting them plus the points. Not since a game at Boston on 3/23 have the Jazz been more than a one-point underdog against anybody. This will be just the 12th time all season that they check in as dogs! Dallas got Luka Doncic back for Game 4, but it just wasn’t enough as they lost 100-99 on a Rudy Gobert dunk in the closing seconds. The Mavericks shot better than the Jazz on Saturday, from all ranges, so that’s a pretty brutal loss with their star returning. Utah has not shot well from three-point range in this series, going 32% or worse in three of the four games. Perhaps you’ve got to credit the Dallas’ defense, but my gut says the Jazz will fire efficiently from long-range tonight. They were one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league this year and also finished tied (w/ Atlanta) for the league-lead in offensive efficiency. Doncic had 30 points in his return, but it really wasn’t that great of a game and he seemed to have a NEGATIVE effect on the Mavs’ offensive flow. Only one of Doncic’s teammates (Jalen Brunson) scored more than 11 points and the entire bench contributed just 13 points. I’m a little shocked that Dallas is +51 in three-point attempts for the series, considering Utah was a top-two team in that category during the regular season. The Mavs are just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games as a playoff favorite. Considering that Utah was favored here in the first two games (granted, no Doncic) and how many they were favored by in the two games at home, this seems to be an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. 8* Utah |
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04-25-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:00 ET): The Raptors were able to fend off elimination on Saturday, taking Game 4 (at home) by a score of 110-102 as 2.5-point underdogs. As you know, no team in NBA history has ever come back to win a series after losing the first three games. So history is not on Toronto’s side as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. But I do like the points tonight as Scottie Barnes (NBA’s Rookie of the Year) has returned for the Raptors and you know that the team will be giving 100% with their season on the line. Now unfortunately, Barnes’ return for Game 4 coincided with the loss of PG Fred Van Vleet to a hip injury. However, I’m not sweating Van Vleet’s questionable status for this game. He’d become a bit of a defensive liability for the Raptors. That said, they did hold the 76ers to an average of 103 points in the two games in Toronto. I also expect the Raptors to shoot much better from three-point range than they did on Saturday. Winning - in spite of going 8 of 34 from behind the arc - was pretty impressive, if you think about it. Pascal Siakam played a heck of a game, scoring 15 of his team-high 34 points in the fourth quarter. Perhaps the biggest injury to make note of heading into Game 5 is on the Philly side as Joel Embiid has a torn ligament in his right thumb and it clearly affected him in the Game 4 loss when he went 7 of 16 from the field. It also didn’t help that James Harden was 5 of 17, including 2 of 8 on three-point attempts. Or that Tyrese Maxey, who had that 38-point effort in Game 1, has seen his own production drop in every game. He scored just 11 points in Game 4. While it’s certainly possible that Harden and/or Maxey play better tonight at home, I think that gets canceled out by the fact the Sixers won’t be +15 again from three-point land. In what oddsmakers project to be a fairly low-scoring tussle, taking the points is the way to go here. 10* Toronto |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:30 ET): The top-seeded Suns may look like a bargain at this number, but remember they are without leading scorer Devin Booker and won Game 3 by only three points. It was a close game most of the way and the Pelicans caught a tough break in the second quarter when forward Jaxson Hayes was ejected. That led to the Suns dominating points in the paint. The loss of Booker really can’t be understated and I expect New Orleans to spring an upset here, just like they did in Game 2 at Phoenix. New Orleans’ overall record this season is a little misleading as they started 3-16 SU. The acquisition of CJ McCollum proved to be a difference maker as he and Brandon Ingram form an excellent scoring tandem that’s averaged 55.7 PPG in this series. I expect that duo to get more help tonight from Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr, who combined to make only two shots in Game 3. The Pelicans have lost B2B home games just once since the All-Star Break. They are 6-1 ATS L7 games off an ATS loss. The loss of Booker was clearly felt as the Suns were a horrid 4 of 26 from three-point range in Game 3. They’ll surely improve upon that percentage tonight, but I wouldn’t look for them to go 40 of 61 (66%!) from two-point range again. The Suns have struggled to defend the three-point line in this series as the Pelicans are shooting 43.5% from behind the arc. Winning twice on the road is tough in the playoffs, especially when you are without your best player. Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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04-24-22 | Heat -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:00 ET): The Heat are one Trae Young floater away from being up 3-0 in this first round series and thus they could have been in position to close the Hawks out here on Sunday. But Young made that floater, giving Atlanta a much needed 111-110 win on Friday as they rallied back from a 14-point 4Q deficit. Still, I don’t think there’s any dispute who the better team is and I expect that team (the Heat!) to bounce back with a win in Game 4. Kyle Lowry left Game 3 with a hamstring injury and did not practice on Saturday. But even if he can’t go, I fully anticipate the Heat putting plenty of points on the board tonight. They’ve scored 110 or more in eight straight games and are up against a team with the worst regular season defensive efficiency rating among playoff qualifiers. After shooting 43.2% from three-point range in the first two games, the Heat were down to 31.1% (14 of 45) in Game 3. While some of that has to do with the change in venue, I’d expect improved shooting from behind the arc tonight. Despite the late heroics in the last game, Young is not having a great series. He scored only eight points in Game 1, then had 10 turnovers (career-high) in Game 2. Through three quarters in Game 3, Young had just 14 pts on 3 of 9 shooting. Over his L9 games vs. Miami, Young has averaged only 21.3 points in large part to the Heat’s ability to defend on-ball picks. I realize that Atlanta is a much better team at home (21-3 SU here since 1/17) but they are just 2-9 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. Lay the short number. 10* Miami |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* 1st Half Brooklyn (7:30 ET): First off, note that this is a first half play only where I’m backing the Nets. The Nets are the fourth team this postseason to return home down 0-2 in the series. Of the previous three, only Atlanta (last night) was able to emerge victorious. But two of the three (Atlanta & Toronto) were leading their games at halftime. What sets Brooklyn apart from the previous three teams in this spot is that they are favored to win. The first two games of this series have been close with Game 1 decided on a buzzer-beater and Game 2 seeing the Nets up 10 at the half. This team is too good to fall down 0-3 to the Celtics. I expect them to be leading comfortably at the halftime break. After losing Game 1 at the buzzer, the Nets led by as many as 17 points in Game 2. That was late in the first half. They were still up seven in the fourth quarter before wilting down the stretch and getting outscored 16-2 over a seven-minute stretch. Boston did not take its first lead until there were less than eight minutes left in the game. I can’t see Kevin Durant having a third straight sub-standard game. He’s averaging 25 PPG, but on 13 of 41 from the field and he’s made only two three-pointers. The Celtics have done an excellent job defending Durant, but eventually a player that great is going to have a great game. It happens here. Boston also probably won’t shoot 52% from the field again like it did in Game 2. Even with Durant’s struggles, Brooklyn is averaging 114.5 points in the series and shooting north of 50 percent. Kyrie Irving, after an incredible Game 1 performance with 39 points, cooled off dramatically in Game 2, scoring only 10 and didn’t have a made three. He, like Durant, will have a better effort tonight and I expect the same from the Nets’ role players as well as this game is at home. It would be shocking to me if the home team didn’t get off to another fast start in this game. 8* 1st Half Brooklyn |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:05 ET): I expect the Nuggets to come out hot. As you probably know, there has never been a team in NBA history to come back from an 0-3 series deficit. So there’s a natural sense of “urgency” for teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series and when you throw in the fact they are back at home, it’s rather reasonable to expect a strong performance. Interestingly enough, despite losing each of the first two games by double digits, Denver has gotten off to good starts. They’ve lead after the 1Q in both games. It was late in the first half - when GS unveiled its so-called “death lineup” - when Game 1 turned in the Warriors’ favor. It wasn’t until after the halftime break when things unraveled for the Nuggets in Game 2 as they allowed 44 points in the third quarter. Note Denver only shot 31.4% from behind the arc in Game 1 and 42.5% overall in Game 2. Back at home, I certainly expect better shooting from them as they average 114.8 PPG here (59.3 in the 1H) on 48.2% shooting. Golden State, who shot very well in the first two games, should see an offensive decrease here in Game 3. Their number of points per game scored on the road this year is down from what they average at home while the amount of PPG allowed rises. In fact, Golden State has a negative point differential on the road in the first half this season. They are 22-19 SU on the road this season, but that’s a far cry from their 33-10 SU home record. Steph Curry has come off the bench in the first two games; that could change for Game 3, but regardless I think it’s the Nuggets that come out stronger. Going back to the regular season, Golden State has now beaten Denver three straight times, but before that the Nuggets had won the season’s first three meetings, including 131-124 here in the Mile High City back in March. Remember they were up 43-31 in the 2Q in Game 2. 8* Denver |
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04-21-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:05 ET): Without Luka Doncic, the Mavericks were able to get a split at home with the Jazz. Now the series moves to Salt Lake City and Doncic is listed as questionable for Game 3 tonight. Doncic averaged 30 points, 11 rebounds and 7.7 assists in the regular season vs. Utah. I probably don’t need to tell you that his return would be gigantic for the Mavs. But, even if he can’t go, I still like the underdog (plus the points) in this one as the Jazz have been big money-burners over the last month or so, going 3-9-1 ATS L13 games. This is too many points that they are laying. In Game 2, the Mavs got a career-high 41 points from Jalen Brunson, made 22 three-pointers (a franchise record for a playoff game) and turned the ball over three times. When you consider that, it’s surprising they only won by six points, but beating the Jazz without Doncic is what counts. While I don’t think we can count on Dallas hitting 22 threes again, Utah’s poor perimeter defense tells me that the Mavs will still make a lot of threes in this game and, defensively, the Jazz have really struggled to contain Dallas’ small-ball lineup. Again, this is a lot of points to lay in a playoff game, especially if Doncic is coming back. The fact Doncic was upgraded to questionable seems like a sign he will play, but regardless, Dallas proved they can stick with Utah even without their best player. Remember that Game 1 was close most of the way with the Jazz only pulling away late. Utah has averaged just 101.5 PPG in the series so far and after a SU loss they are only 10-21-2 ATS this season. Donovan Mitchell needed 30 shots to get to 34 points in Game 2 while Rudy Gobert (save for rebounding) was poor at both ends. Mike Conley didn’t even score a single point as he was in foul trouble. Not saying the Mavs pull the upset, but they’ll at least keep it close. 10* Dallas |
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04-20-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
7* Run Line Texas (9:40 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line selection where I am playing the Rangers +1.5. The road team fell behind early last night (3-0 after the first inning) and never could recover, eventually going down by a score of 6-2. The Rangers are now an incomprehensible 2-16 in Seattle the L3 seasons and off to a poor 2-8 overall start to 2022 (worst record in the American League). Tonight’s pitching matchup doesn’t necessarily look favorable either. But, despite all that you’ve just read, I believe the Rangers can at least stay within a run of the Mariners tonight, if not win outright. Let’s start with the fact that Seattle is due for some serious regression in 2022. They were a HUGE overachiever in 2021, exceeding their Pythagorean Win Expectation by 15, easily the most in the league. They’ve already been shutout twice this season and have scored four runs or less seven times. Mitch Haniger, who was leading the Mariners in both home runs and RBI’s, is now on the COVID-19 list, so it was surprising that the team homered three times last night. All six of Seattle’s runs on Tuesday came via the long ball. The number of hits from the two clubs were almost even. Texas has allowed more runs this season than everyone except Cincinnati, which is a problem, but tonight’s starter Dane Dunning has not been bad so far. Dunning has given up just five runs in his two starts and he was a winner for me his last time out, as a +135 underdog on the ML, against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. Now Logan Gilbert and the Seattle bullpen have been shockingly good thus far, but I’m not convinced that can continue. Texas is still averaging 6.2 rpg on the road and has a higher team batting average than the Mariners. Five of the previous nine meetings between these teams have been decided by one run. 7* Run Line Texas |
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04-20-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Though it’s officially a best of seven series, Game 3 is pretty much “do or die” for the Raptors as no one has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA playoff history. It’ll be a boost being back at home and remember because of COVID-19 protocol up in Canada, Philadelphia is going to be without one of its key reserves (Matisse Thybulle) who is unvaccinated. While that may not sound like a big deal, based on the fact Thybulle scored just eight total points in the first two games, I think the Raptors come out hot in Game 3 and make this an interesting series. Take the points. Since 2005, teams down 0-2 in a series and returning home for Game 3 have covered roughly two-thirds of the time. So historically this is a profitable spot to back the Raptors, who are better than what they’ve shown in the first two games vs. the 76ers. In both games at Philly, things somewhat unraveled in the second quarter, leaving the Raptors to face large halftime deficits. Don’t see that happening at home where the team sees its scoring rise and number of points per game allowed go down (compared to the road). Toronto won seven of its final eight regular season home games, the lone loss coming by five to top seed Miami. The Sixers had a surprisingly good road record in the regular season (27-14 SU), but only outscored opponents by about two points per game. As an away favorite, they are 11-12-1 ATS. In the first two games, the Sixers lived at the free throw line, getting 64 attempts and making 55. On the road, the refs are unlikely to be quite so generous. Over the course of the year, the team averaged 20 made FTs per game. So I expect a decrease in production from the charity stripe in Game 3. Perhaps most pertinent of all is the fact the Raptors are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season off three consecutive losses (they lost reg season finale). 9* Toronto |
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04-19-22 | Manchester United v. Liverpool -1.25 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
8* Liverpool -1.5 (3:00 ET): Liverpool fans are now dreaming of an elusive “quadruple” as the club has already bagged the Carabao Cup this season and finds itself in position to pick up three more pieces of hardware over the next month. Over the last week, the Reds booked their place in the Champions League semifinals and the FA Cup Final, the latter coming by way of 3-2 win over Manchester City. In the Premier League, Liverpool still trails Man City (they played to a 2-2 draw in league action two weeks ago), but only by a single point. So a win today would move the Reds to the top of the table, albeit maybe just for the time being (Man City faces Brighton tomorrow). Now, looking at the odds, a Liverpool win doesn’t seem to be in question for today. They have not lost a single Premier League match here at Anfield this season (12-3-0), turning in a phenomenal +32 goal differential in the process. They’ve won 10 straight here and come into today’s fixture having scored 2+ goals in each of their last five competitions. So considering the available options, I’m going with the goal line here as this should be a multi-goal victory for the home side. When they faced Man U at Old Trafford earlier this season, it was a 5-0 demolition. That’s part of a disturbing trend for United, who has not fared well against the top EPL sides this season. Against the top three this season, they’ve been outscored 12-2 and the xG (expected goal) difference isn’t far off. The highest amount of possession Man U held in any of those three losses was 37% (in the 5-0 loss to Liverpool, ironically). United comes in fifth in the table, three points behind Tottenham, but considering they could barely beat last place Norwich City last week (needed a Cristiano Ronaldo hat trick), it’s difficult to like their chances here. Before LW, they’d scored only one goal across three fixtures. 8* Liverpool -1.5 (Goal Line) |
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04-17-22 | Leicester +0.5 v. Newcastle United | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -138 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
8* Leicester City (9:15 AM ET): Taking Leicester City on the goal line here, so all we would need is a draw to cash a winning ticket. That doesn’t seem like a “big ask” considering the side they are facing, Newcastle United, has spent the bulk of the year near the bottom of the table. Though the Magpies have recently seen an uptick in performance, and thus are likely to avoid relegation, they are still sitting in 15th place. Only three sides in the league (as of Saturday) are worse off in terms of goal differential and only two are lower in xPts (expected points). I really like only needing a draw in this fixture. Though the 2021/22 season has seen Leicester slip a bit, down to ninth in the table (they finished fifth last season), the Foxes have improved their own form recently by going unbeaten in their last five across all competitions. Most recently they progressed to the semis of the Europa Conference League, defeating PSV Eindhoven 2-1 on their own turf. That was midweek (Thursday), so the Foxes are at a bit of a disadvantage schedule-wise, but I still think they’re being undervalued in this spot. Last time in the league, Leicester defeated Crystal Palace (who is in the semis of the FA Cup) 2-1. Leicester is also the last team to defeat suddenly surging Brentford and they drew Manchester United earlier this month as well. The return of Johnny Evans to the starting XI has helped defensively. As for Newcastle, they’ve been overachieving since the transfer window closed, both on GD and xPts. It was a 4-0 thrashing at King Power (in favor of Leicester) when these teams met in the reverse back in December. Leicester is still gunning for a top half finish. That and the Europa Conference League will keep their motivation high down the stretch. Newcastle’s goal of avoiding relegation has been achieved and they’ve failed to score more than one goal in any of the L4 matches. 8* Leicester City |
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04-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -6 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:35 ET): The Warriors won their last five regular season games, all without Steph Curry, and now the former league MVP is expected back for Game 1 of this best of seven series vs. Denver. Relative to some of the other first round series, the Warriors aren’t that large of a favorite to advance here, but I see them doing so without much issue. At full strength, the Dubs are clearly a Top 5 team in the NBA and I see them rolling in Game 1 Saturday night over a Denver team that I just don’t believe in, even though they have reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic among their ranks. Lay the points. Curry (foot) is officially listed as probable. Note that I’m rolling with Golden State regardless. If Curry doesn’t play, then the opportunity to get a better number will be there. But barring something unforeseen, it appears he WILL play. “We expect him to play,” said Warriors’ HC Steve Kerr. The team won its last five games by an average of 13.2 PPG and its outscoring foes by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. So home court advantage for this series certainly seems significant, even though the Nuggets had a better win percentage on the road. Also key is that the Warriors finished the regular season #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. That will serve them well in the playoffs. While the Warriors’ core of Curry-Thompson-Green SHOULD be together on the floor for Game 1, Denver will continue to be without Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray. While Jokic carried the team with those two out, doing so in a series against Golden State seems a lot more problematic. Yes, the Nuggets did win three of the four regular season matchups. But Golden State won the last one, led by Curry’s 34 points. Denver is just nowhere as good defensively (18th in efficiency) and they are 1-4 ATS L5 games as a playoff underdog. 10* Golden State |
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04-16-22 | Torino +1 v. Lazio | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
10* Torino +1 (2:45 ET): Playing Torino on the goal line this week as they have turned it around the last two weeks, not conceding a single goal. Last time I took them was a 1-0 win over last place Salernitana, which may not sound all that impressive, but sharing the points with Serie A leaders AC Milan last week in a goalless draw certainly was. Over its last five matches, Torino has now conceded only two goals and they’ve shared the points not just with this year’s league leaders but also the reigning Scudetto holders. I’m willing to bet that they can at least share the points with Lazio on Saturday. No team in all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has overperformed its xG (expected goal) total more than Lazio. They have scored 64 times in Serie A matches this season, second most to Inter, but have an xG total of just 47.76. To put that discrepancy into its proper perspective, only Verona has exceeded its xG total by more than seven. The overperformance continued last week with four goals against 19th place Genoa when the xG total was just 2.16. Eventually, Lazio is going to have a match where it underperforms offensively. I think this is the fixture where that happens. Now Lazio certainly has much to play for here as they are sixth in the table and seven points back of the top four. But a Torino side that has a top five defensive mark in the league is a bad matchup and these clubs shared the points in a 1-1 draw back in September. It even took a late penalty, in stoppage time, for Lazio to earn the draw. I just can’t see the favorite winning by two goals here, so the goal line is the way to go in this one. 10* Torino |
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04-16-22 | Rayo Vallecano v. Alavés | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
10* Rayo Vallecano (10:15 AM ET): Rayo has managed to share the points in three of its last four matches, including Monday’s 1-1 draw with Valencia. But they have actually not won in the league since December and that 12 match winless run (eight losses, four draws) has left them only six points clear of safety heading into this weekend. But Rayo seems to have the perfect opponent to snap their winless streak, that being an Alaves side that is not only last in the La Liga table, but also the last time Rayo defeated. Take the away team on the “draw no bet” line, even though I expect them to get the full three points here. Rayo has been fairly unlucky down the stretch, especially two weeks ago when it had to settle for a 2-2 draw with Granada after jumping out to an early 2-0 lead. That match swung on a red card in the 51st minute and Granada got the equalizer in stoppage time on a controversial penalty. Last week against Valencia, it was Rayo that got the late equalizer, but they also won the possession battle and had more shots than Valencia. During the winless streak, Rayo has 12.84 xPts so they are incredibly unlucky to have taken only four. As for Alaves, there’s really nothing unlucky about their current last place standing. El Glorioso now has the worst goal differential in the league (-29) and most losses (19). They’ve lost four in a row and are winless over the last seven fixtures. No La Liga side has scored fewer goals this season than Alaves’ 24 and they’ve been outscored 9-3 over the four-game losing streak. Rayo dominated the first meeting, winning 2-0, and should do the same again here. 10* Rayo Vallecano (Draw No Bet Line) |
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04-16-22 | Brentford v. Watford | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET): Brentford is an “in-form” side right now, having won four of its last five matches. This run has all but guaranteed that the Bees will be back in the English top flight next season, which is well deserved as this club is actually 7th in xPts (expected points) in the entire Premier League. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same for Watford, another side that was promoted before the start of this season. The Hornets currently sit 19th in the table and are six points clear of safety following last week’s results. So I’ll gladly take Brentford on the “draw no bet line” Saturday. Each of the L2 weeks have seen Brentford take down a top six side in the Premier League table. Who could forget what they did to Chelsea two weeks ago, scoring four times at Stamford Bridge? Then, last week I played them this same way (draw = no bet) against West Ham and the Bees walked away 2-0 winners at home. Now 12 points clear of the drop zone, Brentford can move past Aston Villa, Brighton & Crystal Palace with a win here and into 10th place. As for Watford, they have not won here at Vicarage Road since November (lost 9 in a row!), conceding 25 times during that particular losing streak. Only last place Norwich City and Leeds Unitied have conceded more goals this season and Watford’s three clean sheets are the fewest in the whole league. In the reverse fixture, Brentford dominated far more than the 2-1 final suggests and now that they’re in even better form, it should be an easy three points. 10* Brentford (Draw No Bet Line) |
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04-13-22 | Spurs +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (9:30 ET): The winner of this game will move on to face the LOSER of Clippers-T’wolves (played on Tuesday) to determine who is the #8 seed (and face Phoenix in the first round) for the Western Conference playoffs. Despite finishing with their second worst win percentage EVER under HC Gregg Popovich, the Spurs should have finished with a far better record. Based on their point differential, they should have a winning record, not be 14 games below .500. Only Boston and Utah underperformed their Pythagorean win total more. I’m on the Spurs Weds to at least cover. Honestly, I expect them to win here. The Spurs won and covered three of the four regular season matchups with the Pelicans. Significant is that they were 2-1 SU/ATS in the three matchups after NO acquired CJ McCollum. The Pelicans were definitely a better team after the All-Star Break, but they have the worst expected win percentage of any team still playing. They are also a bottom five team in three-point shooting. Both Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas remain on the injury report (as questionable) for Weds. While I expect one or both to play, those would be massive losses for a game of this magnitude. The Spurs should enter this game relatively healthy. Leading scorer Dejounte Murray is the first player in NBA HISTORY to average 20-9-8 (points-rebounds-assists) over the course of an entire season. The Spurs are 19-12 ATS as road underdogs, the third best record in that situation in the league. They also have the best money line record as road dogs, having posted 12 outright wins. The Spurs’ losing record on the road (straight up) is highly misleading as they scored more than they allowed in those games. They are the better team in this matchup, so I’m definitely taking the points. 10* San Antonio |
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04-12-22 | Clippers v. Wolves -2.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 36 h 9 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (9:30 ET): The Timberwolves did not finish the regular season particularly strong (3-4 SU/1-6 ATS L7) but that’s not at all indicative of how they played most of the way. This team’s statistical profile is much more “on par” with the likes of Dallas and Denver than it is with the rest of the “play-in” teams. Case in point, the T’wolves had a better point differential and net efficiency rating compared to the sixth placed Nuggets. Getting this game at home is huge for a young team and I expect them to advance by defeating the Clippers Tuesday. Conversely, the Clippers did finish the regular season quite well, winning their final five games by an average of more than 25 PPG. While that’s obviously quite impressive, consider four of the wins were at home, the last three all coming against non-contending (Sacramento, OKC) or disinterested (Phoenix) teams. The return of Paul George obviously makes this a stronger team, but it’s hard to look past the fact that even with the strong finish, LA was downright mediocre this year. They are 2-8 ATS in their L10 games against teams that are .500 or better. Of the eight teams (East & West) involved in the play-in tournament, I’ve got Minnesota rated as the best. They were 1-3 SU/ATS head to head vs. LA in the regular season, but the three losses were all before Thanksgiving and that’s a long time ago. They won in LA 122-104 on January 3rd. Since the New Year, the T’wolves are 30-16 SU and they have the fifth best SU record in the league since the All-Star Break. It would be a shame if this team didn’t make the playoffs proper. They are 25-18-1 ATS when favored, so whether or not D’Angelo Russell plays, I’m laying the short number. 10* Minnesota |
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04-12-22 | Chelsea v. Real Madrid | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Chelsea (3:00 ET): Chelsea, the reigning UCL Champs, finds itself in a large hole as they trail Real Madrid 3-1 after the first leg. Now, the Blues have certainly proven themselves to be resilient in the past. Case in point; after shipping a stunning seven goals in B2B losses (Real Madrid, Brentford), they came back to smoke Southampton 6-0 in the Premier League over the weekend. While I would not be confident in Chelsea repeating that kind of result on Tuesday, I do like them to at least win at Real Madrid. Take the visitors on the “draw - no bet line.” To progress in this competition, Chelsea must erase the two-goal disadvantage from the first leg. That’s going to be extremely hard to do here at the Spanish capital, but winning by a goal is not as tall an order. They have failed to score in only one of the last 15 Champions League matches as the away team. The 6-0 win over Southampton was also the Blues’ seventh in a row away from Stamford Bridge. The number of goals conceded in those B2B losses to Brentford and Real Madrid were highly uncharacteristic for Thomas Tuchel’s club. Though Real Madrid won the first leg 3-1, the xG (expected goal difference) was only +0.7, so the match was closer than the final score suggests. Chelsea had the edge in both shots (20-8) and touches in the penalty area (24-8). Los Blancos will be without Eder Militao for the second leg as he’s suspended for picking up a second yellow card. That’s a significant loss for the home side. Can Karim Benzema really keep carrying them the way he has? Remember that Madrid were recently thumped (4-0) by Barcelona in La Liga and also needed a huge comeback of their own to oust PSG in the Round of 16 of this competition. 10* Chelsea |
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04-10-22 | Thunder +10 v. Clippers | Top | 88-138 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:40 ET): The Clippers seem to be on a bit of a roll as they head towards the play-in tournament. They’ve won four straight, the latest coming yesterday when they defeated Sacramento 117-98 as a 12-point favorite. I cashed the Under in that game, a play which was never really in doubt. What is in doubt for today, however, is the Clips’ motivation. This is the second game of a back to back, plus they know they are heading to Minnesota Tuesday for their shot to make the playoffs. I do not think the home team will be in the mindset to win their regular season finale by double digits. Meanwhile, I know that the Thunder have NOTHING to play for here, but I also think that makes them a somewhat “dangerous” dog in this spot. As was expected, it was another long season in OKC as the Thunder will finish second to last in the Western Conference, ahead of only Houston. They’ve been blown out in back to back games, but look for there to be a sense of pride here in avoiding that fate a third straight time. There are a good number of Thunder players unavailable, but it’s not like the Clippers are going all out Sunday. In three of the last four games, the Clippers have made 20+ three pointers. They were 21 of 43 from behind the arc yesterday. I just can’t see the shots continuing to fall at that high of a percentage, even in a game where defensive intensity may not be at its highest. I am anticipating a disinterested favorite in this one, and laying such a big number makes them a prime fade opportunity. Especially with this being the second night of a back to back. The Clips are just 5-8 SU this season in the 2nd night of a B2B. They may want to win (to finish the reg season above .500), but not by double digits. 10* Oklahoma City |
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04-10-22 | West Ham United v. Brentford | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
10* Brentford (9:00 AM ET): What a performance from Brentford last week as the Bees put FOUR goals on the board against Chelsea in a stunning win. Not only was it a huge win over a top three EPL side, but it moved the Bees further away from the relegation zone, nine points clear, and up into 14th place. Really, this side “deserves” to be even higher in the table. They are a shocking eighth in xPts (expected points) coming into the weekend, quite impressive for a club in its first year back in the top flight. It’s another chance to shock one of the top teams on Sunday and I will play Brentford on the “draw - no bet line.” West Ham currently sits sixth in the table, only three points back of the top four. But what has the Hammers at a slight disadvantage is the fact that everyone else in the top seven has at least a match in hand. I don’t think the spot for the Hammers this week either; they are coming off a 1-1 draw in the Europa League quarterfinals on Thursday (vs. Lyon) and their away form has been poor since the new year. They’ve lost each of their last four away matches (across all competitions) and have not won a Premier League away match since Opening Day! They lost at home earlier in the season to Brentford, 2-1, at London Stadium as well. Truth be told, West Ham was lucky to escape with a draw midweek as they played with just 10 men the entire second half. Of course, that was after taking advantage of a red card last week against Everton. Also remember that the Hammers have the second leg vs. Lyon looming this week, so Brentford may not have their full attention. That could very well lead to disaster considering Brentford has now won three of four with 10 goals scored in league play. Brentford always plays better at home and they are healthier than they’ve been in a while. Look for them to capture all three points Sunday. 10* Brentford - Draw No Bet |
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04-10-22 | Crystal Palace +0.5 v. Leicester | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 41 h 7 m | Show |
8* Crystal Palace Goal Line (9:00 AM ET): Crystal Palace still has a lot to play for: a top half finish in the Premier League and they are in the semifinals of the FA Cup. A win in the FA Cup (no small task as the other three sides remaining are Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea) would guarantee European football next season. Regardless if they can win that competition, the Eagles are probably deserving of a top half finish in the league front. They enter the weekend 9th in xPts and at +4, aren’t all that fair off from the teams chasing the European places in the table. It’s been nearly a month since I last took CP; the day they earned points against Man City in a 0-0 draw. I’ll take them here on the goal line. It’s been a remarkable run of form lately for Crystal Palace as they haven’t conceded a single goal in any of their last four matches. That includes the aforementioned 0-0 draw against Man City and also three wins (over Wolverhampton, Everton and Arsenal). Last week’s 3-0 demolition of top four chasers Arsenal was as impressive as it gets. The Eagles are now unbeaten in their last seven across all competitions with five wins. So you can see why the goal line is such an attractive option here. It was a 2-2 draw when they faced Leicester City earlier this season. These two sides are actually level with 37 points, but while CP has four more goals than what they’ve conceded, Leicester is just the opposite, having shipped four more than they’ve scored. It’s also a tough spot here for Leicester, coming off a goalless draw midweek in the Europa Conference League (with PSV), which is their main concern right now. The Foxes have now won just once in their last five competitions as they drew with Man U (1-1) in the league last week. European fatigue could be very real here for the Foxes. 8* Crystal Palace Goal Line |
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04-09-22 | Union Berlin v. Hertha Berlin | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
10* Union Berlin (12:30 ET): There are very different goals for the two sides in the Berlin derby this Saturday. FC Union Berlin currently sits seventh in the Bundesliga table, as it’s been a very good 2021/22 season, and they are only three points adrift of Europa League qualifying for next season. They are also still alive in the DFB-Pokal, so FCUB fans have to be feeling like their chances of European football next season are strong. There’s a lot to play for over the next two months and the club came out of the international break by picking up a huge 1-0 win over Koln last weekend. Union now is FIFTH in xPts (expected points), so they are a worthy European challenger despite a -4 YTD goal differential. As for Hertha, they are simply struggling to survive in the German top flight. Entering Saturday, they sit 17th in the table (based on GD with Arminia Bielefeld), which would mean automatic relegation to the Bundesliga 2 for next season. Only Greuther Furth has a worse YTD goal differential than Hertha’s -33. Recent form suggests relegation is a very real possibility for this once proud side, which is already on its third manager of the season! The “new manager bounce” did result in a shocking 3-0 win over Hoffenheim right before the international break, however that is Hertha’s only points earned over its L7 matches. In each of the six losses, they have conceded multiple goals. Because Union Berlin only returned to the top flight in 2019, this derby has been played infrequently; just nine times since 1963! But Union will be gunning to make it THREE wins over their capital rivals this season as they beat them 2-0 in the reverse back in November, scoring both goals in the opening 30 minutes. Then, more recently, came a 3-2 win in the DFB-Pokal quarterfinals. Don’t think for a second that Union isn’t relishing the opportunity to pull an ultra-rare triple over Hertha and possibly knock them out of the Bundesliga for next season. Union possesses several matchup advantages in this fixture, so I will take them on the “draw-no bet line” (meaning a draw would count as a “push” not a loss. I expect Union to get all three points though. 10* Union Berlin - Draw No Bet |
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04-08-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
8* Run Line Baltimore (3:10 ET): Please note that this play is on the run line, which means I am backing the Orioles +1.5. Last season, Baltimore finished an incomprehensible 1-18 head to head vs. Tampa Bay. That accounted for nearly one-third of the 48-game difference in the standings between the two AL East clubs (first and last). But now it’s a new season and we might as well give the O’s a try while there’s still a hint of optimism in the air. Their best pitcher is on the mound Opening Day and I expect the O’s to do no worse than a one-run loss here. So we’re going to rely heavily on Orioles’ starter John Means in this one. Means posted respectable numbers for a last place team in 2021, particularly on the road where he had a 2.84 ERA and 0.899 WHIP. He had an 0-5 team start record vs. TB last season. But again, I think this is a great early season opportunity to back the underdog as their long overdue for a win over their AL East rival and Means should keep the Rays’ offense in check. The bullpen can only get better. The Rays send Shane McClanahan to the bump on Friday. He had a 4-0 TSR vs. Baltimore in 2021. But note Means had the slightly lower WHIP and the two lefties had comparable ERAs. Not surprisingly, the Orioles had the worst record in one-run games in the AL. They are probably due for some better results in that regard this season, but just to be safe I’ll stick with the RL. Means was a much better pitcher in the 1H of last season, posting a 2.28 ERA before the All-Star Break. 8* Run Line Baltimore |
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04-08-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.5 v. Newcastle United | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -140 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
8* Wolverhampton Goal Line (3:00 ET): The Wolves are very much in the mix for European football next season as - coming off a 2-1 home success over Aston Villa last time out - they sit just five points back of fourth (Champions League) and only two points back of sixth (Europa League). So a win here would move them into sixth position, ahead of both West Ham and Manchester United, although those two sides would have one and two matches in hand respectively. While I think a top four finish is stretching it, the Wolves will certainly be motivated here and I like them to claim at least a point against slumping Newcastle United on Friday. To be clear, by playing the goal line here, all we need is a draw from the Wolves to have ourselves a winning bet. Now I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Wolves get the win and claim all three points either. They won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Molineux back in October. However, the previous five encounters between these two sides in Premier League action all ended with the same 1-1 scoreline. I’ll take that here. Another key is the Wolves have the fourth best away record in the EPL this season. Only Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have been better on their travels. Newcastle did win six of their seven Premier League matches from Jan 22 to March 10, likely saving them from relegation, but recently the Magpies have hit the skids with three consecutive defeats. They conceded five times last week to Tottenham and have the fourth worst defensive record in the league. Meanwhile, the Wolves have conceded the fourth fewest goals this term. Therefore, it certainly doesn’t help that Newcastle’s leading scorer Callum Wilson is out injured. I’ve said before that Wolverhampton is a bit fortunate to be so high in the table, but they are being drastically underrated in this spot against a side that is still 18th in the league in xPts (expected points). 8* Wolverhampton Goal Line |
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04-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:10 ET): This is a critical game for the Nuggets, who need one win in their last two games to avoid falling into the play-in round. On Tuesday, they blew their first chance at clinching with a horrendous effort here at home, losing 116-97 to short-handed San Antonio, a game where the Nuggets closed as nine-point favorites! In addition to trying to avoid the play-in round, Denver can still move up to fifth in the West. That would be advantageous as it’s likely Golden State will finish third and the Nuggets would like to avoid them seeing as Steph Curry is expected back for the start of the playoffs. Not only did Denver shoot itself in the foot Tuesday night, their task of moving up the standings was made more difficult when both Dallas and Utah (the two teams in front of them) both won. The Nuggets can no longer earn home court advantage in the first round, but like I said earlier they can pass Utah and move into fifth. The current gap between the Jazz and Nuggets is one game. I see Denver being tremendously motivated to win on Thursday; not just for playoff seeding purposes, but they are also 0-3 this season vs. Memphis, so there’s some revenge in the Rocky Mountain air tonight. The Grizzlies team that takes the floor this evening won’t really resemble the one that’s previously beaten the Nuggets three teams. Already locked into the 2-seed in the West, the Grizzlies are letting several injured players rest, most notably Ja Morant. The Grizz have a shockingly good SU record w/o Morant so far, but Brooks, Tillie and Terry are also all out and the team could not overcome all the absences Tuesday (when we faded them) in an OT loss at Utah. I don’t see Memphis’ intensity matching Denver’s tonight. Despite being 0-3 SU vs. the Grizz in 2021-22, the Nuggets led at the half in all three games. 10* Denver |
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04-05-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:10 ET): This is a huge game for the Jazz, who have fallen to sixth in the Western Conference despite having the league’s fourth best point differential. They have lost six of their last seven games, also going 1-6 ATS (0-7 ATS for some, depending on the result of the game against the Lakers). An inability to hold big leads has cost Utah dearly this season as Sunday marked the 15th time they had a double digit lead and lost. That was to a Steph Curry-less Warriors team and they were up by as many as 21 before losing 111-107. I am expecting a big bounce back performance from the Jazz, at home, here tonight. The last time Utah was off a stunning loss like what happened Sunday, I took them the next time out and they covered for me. That was against the Lakers as I had the Jazz -12 and they won 122-109. Here, the line is a lot shorter. While that’s for good reason (Memphis is very good), the opponent has nothing to play for on Tuesday. The Grizzlies are already locked into the second seed for the playoffs and will also be playing short-handed. Not only is Ja Morant out, but five other players are listed as questionable on the injury report, including Tillie, Bane, Jackson, Adams and Jones. Having to worry about 7th place Minnesota (1.5 games back) will have the Jazz supremely motivated for this one. It would be almost incomprehensible for the Jazz to fall into the play-in tournament. I still have them rated as a top five team in the league. I think their goal would be to avoid the Warriors (who are currently third) in the first round, so finishing fifth would have its benefits. I know Memphis has won seven straight and 10 of 11, but Utah will be the more motivated team on Tuesday, especially after blowing that big lead Sunday, so I am laying the points. The Jazz outscore teams by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. 8* Utah |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
10* Kansas (9:20 ET): Ok. As previously noted, only one of the previous 20 NCAAB National Champions (2014 UConn) didn’t rank in the top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. The Jayhawks are the team that fits the bill here in 2022 as they are sixth in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency. So if the trend holds, then Bill Self will bring another title to Lawrence. North Carolina has been a tremendous story, ending Coach K’s run on Saturday, but they were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament and 39th in defensive efficiency. I’m laying the points Monday night. Though their lead was cut to six in the second half, I never sensed Kansas was in any real danger Saturday night against Villanova. They raced out to a 10-0 lead to start the game and were up 38-19 before halftime. While ‘Nova was without Justin Moore, beating them wire to wire is a real feather in the cap for the Jayhawks, who have been incredible defensively in this tournament, holding all five opponents below 40% shooting. Only Villanova shot better than 36% from the floor. I mentioned earlier that KU got to face Villanova without Justin Moore. Here they’ll get UNC with a hobbled Armando Bacot. Bacot is the Tar Heels’ leading scorer and rebounder. He’s third in the country in rebounding. Hubert Davis doesn’t have a lot of depth down low, so an injured Bacot is certainly ill-timed. He’s going to play, but won’t be 100 percent and was clearly bothered by the injured ankle in the second half vs. Duke. It honestly shocks me that UNC has made it thus far and they easily could have lost three of their last four games. Kansas has been the better team all season and it would be downright stunning to me if they didn’t win here. 10* Kansas |
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04-03-22 | 76ers v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Here we’ve got two Eastern Conference playoff teams in the second game of a back to back. Both won yesterday afternoon. Philadelphia blew out Charlotte 144-114. Cleveland was a 119-101 winner in New York. At this point, the 76ers are just trying to ensure they finish in the top four and have home court advantage for the first round. They are 2.5 games behind top seed Miami. The Cavaliers’ current standing is more perilous as they are facing the prospect of the play-in round. They’ve fallen to 7th place and are two games back of sixth place Chicago. I think the Cavs, at home, will want this one more. There’s obviously a huge benefit to finishing in the top six. Philly is going to be in the top four and that’s all that they care about. James Harden and Joel Embiid may both sit tonight. The Cavs will definitely be without Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but that’s not as significant as Harden and Embiid. The real key for Cleveland is getting back to the kind of defense we saw from them in the first half of the season. At home, they are giving up just 103.2 PPG, third fewest in the league. I think we’ll see a strong effort at the defensive end here. The Cavs are 0-3 SU vs. the Sixers this year, including a pair of losses in March. But for this triple revenge spot, they are getting points at home and I like that. Philadelphia had lost three in a row before yesterday’s win. In the last two meetings, Cleveland led by eight at the half the first time and then only lost by four the second time. Fingers crossed that Harden and/or Embiid sits, but either way I like Cleveland getting points in this matchup, which is quite critical for them. They are top six in the East in net efficiency and point differential. 10* Cleveland |
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04-03-22 | Mainz +0.5 v. Borussia Monchengladbach | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
10* Mainz +0.5 (11:30 AM ET): These two Bundesliga sides are separated by only four points and two spots in the table. But goal differential (don’t we always go back to that?) says the gap should be a lot wider. Mainz, who doesn’t usually find themselves in the top half of the table, still has a chance at a top six finish which would have them playing European football next season. They have two matches in hand compared to everyone above them and as long as they can pick up points in each of the next two fixtures (this one and Weds vs. Augsburg), they’ll be in good shape. I don’t see Mainz doing any worse than a draw on Sunday and thus will play them +0.5 on the goal line. Back to goal differential, Mainz is actually +9 this season, which is sixth best in the entire Bundesliga! Despite having played two fewer matches than almost everybody in the league, they are seventh in xPts. Now compare that to Borussia Monchengladbach, who has a -13 GD in what has been a down year for them. While there has been a bit of a recent resurgence for Gladbach, winning two in a row, they still are only seven points clear of automatic relegation. Also, the two sides that Gladbach recently beat - Hertha Berlin and Bochum - are both in the bottom half of the table. Before the Int’l Break, Mainz ran out to a 4-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld, which was much needed following losses to Union Berlin and Dortmund. But they’d also previously beaten top three Leverkusen. I’m just very surprised at the pricing on this matchup as Mainz is the better side and seemingly has an edge when it comes to pressing against Gladbach’s poor transition defense. Also, Mainz has conceded the second fewest number of goals in the league this season. Gladbach is tied for third MOST conceded and over its L15 matches has only held two sides (Bielefeld & Hertha) under 1.0 xG. Again, betting the goal line means that all we need is a draw here. I think Mainz is likely to win. 10* Mainz +0.5 |
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04-02-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:10 ET): Though I don’t think they deserve to, it looks as if Chicago is likely to finish in the Eastern Conference’s top six and thus avoid the play-in round. Of the top six, the Bulls easily have the worst YTD point differential and net efficiency. In fact, they are behind 7th place Cleveland as well as Brooklyn and Atlanta in both regards. Though the Bulls did manage to come from behind and beat the Clippers in OT on Thursday, their ATS record since the All-Star remains a poor 5-12 ATS. It’s not just the underlying metrics that make me skeptical of this Bulls team. They have also been PUTRID against the league’s best teams. They are 1-19 SU in their L20 games against teams with the top nine records in the league. That includes 0-3 vs. the Heat, who they host here. The last four times that Chicago has faced a team with a win percentage of .600 or better, they have lost by at least 15 points. Don’t look for tonight to go any different as the last two meetings with the Heat have been decided by a total of 29 points. After going cold for a bit, Miami posted B2B wins to end March and thus continues to lead the East with a 49-28 SU record. They are now one game up on the Bucks, who got crushed last night. But two other teams (Celtics, Sixers) are within 2.5 games as well. So the Heat can’t afford to take any nights off here. They are off a huge win in Boston on Thursday as four of the five starters scored 14 or more points. The Heat also held the Celtics to 15 points in the fourth quarter. With that win, they are now 8-1-1 ATS L10 road games. Lay the points. 10* Miami |
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04-02-22 | RB Leipzig v. Borussia Dortmund | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
8* RB Leipzig +0.0 (12:30 PM ET): This is a top four clash in the Bundesliga with the two sides separated by 12 points, but a lot closer on goal differential. I think Borussia Dortmund should feel extremely fortunate to be only six points behind first place Bayern Munich. BVB has greatly overperformed its xG total this season, mostly thanks to Erling Haaland, but he’s now listed as doubtful for Saturday after sustaining an injury in Norway’s international friendly against Armenia. That’s a big blow when facing a side like Leipzig, who has lost only once in 2022 (to Bayern Munich) and is unbeaten in its last nine matches. Leipzig may be in a tight three-way battle for fourth right now (with Freiburg and Hoffenheim), but they are a deserved top four side in my opinion, based on the similar GD to Dortmund and third place Leverkusen. Leipzig was actually first in the league last season in xPts (yes, ahead of Bayern!) and this season, they are second in that regard, just ahead of Dortmund. While they haven’t matched BVB in goal scoring this season, I think it’s just as important to note they’ve conceded eight fewer times. Also, since the turn of the year, no Bundesliga side has picked up more points than Leipzig has (23). Even if Haaland does play here, I don’t see Leipzig doing any worse than a draw. They deserved better than a 0-0 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt two weeks ago. There have been multiple frustrating draws for this team, which is why they’re not firmly in the top four, but I can certainly see Leipzig winning here as they’ve been the better side compared to Dortmund over the last few months. Even with Haaland on the pitch, BVB has scored only four times in the last four fixtures. Leipzig beat Dortmund 2-1 back in November and this is a huge fixture for them to get points. 8* RB Leipzig (DRAW = NO BET) |
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04-01-22 | Wolves +3 v. Nuggets | Top | 136-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (9:10 ET): I’ve got the T’wolves rated as the better team here, despite recent form. Since the All-Star Break, they had posted the NBA’s second best net efficiency rating. That was until dropping four of their last five games, which seemingly leaves them resigned to the 7-seed and play-in round in the Western Conference. Right now, Minnesota faces a three-game deficit with five to play. The team they are chasing (Denver) is the opponent tonight and a win here would not only close the gap, but ensures Minny holds the tiebreaker. They should be favored in the last four games, so look for a top-notch effort on Friday. The Nuggets have won their last three games, so not only are they thinking about holding onto the 6-seed, they’ve got the potential for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs on their mind. They are only two games back of third place, a tighter gap than what exists between them and the T’wolves, in what could be a wild finish. Note however that Denver’s three-game win streak has come at the expense of two bad teams (OKC, Indiana) and Charlotte. All three wins were by seven points or less, although they did have a huge early lead on Indiana Wednesday. But they shot 62.5% in that game, a number they won’t come close to matching here. Minnesota also had a big 1H lead on Weds, but could not hold it and ended up losing in a blowout to Toronto. That game saw a massive 40-point swing. Karl-Anthony Towns scored only 16 points on just 13 field goal attempts, so I think it’s more than reasonable to expect a bounce back performance from the T’wolves’ leading scorer tonight. Something worth noting is that the team averages more PPG on the road (117.5) than they do at home (112.9). They are actually the league’s highest scoring road team! Take the points. 10* Minnesota |
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03-31-22 | Lakers v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz have somehow fallen down into sixth place in the Western Conference, despite possessing the fourth best YTD point differential in the entire NBA. They are, not coincidentally, in the top four of my own personal power rankings (3rd). However, a win would be nice after a disastrous road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU/ATS overall and lose the last five games. Without question, the most demoralizing defeat of the bunch occurred Tuesday when they blew a 25-point lead and lost 121-115 to the Clippers. I believe the Jazz will be “out for blood” in their return home Thursday against the Lakers. The Lakers are in trouble. LeBron James and Anthony Davis both remain out and the team holds a tenuous half game lead over San Antonio for the final spot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Lakers are getting in. They have a worse statistical profile than the Spurs and have just FOUR wins since the All-Star Break. Five of their last six opponents have shot at least 50% from the field and they just gave up 128 points to Dallas on Tuesday. Whereas I think Utah is much better than its won-loss record, the Lakers are worse than their WL record, a damning statement considering they are already 13 games below .500. If you can believe this, the Lakers are going for their second season sweep of the Jazz in the last 37 years. But the previous two wins were both at home. The Lakers’ road record is 11-26 SU and they are without their two superstars right now. I know this is a big number to lay with a team on a five-game losing streak, but Utah should be supremely motivated to handle its business here and is #2 in points per game at home in the league (116.3). Again, they were up 25 on the Clippers the other night. The Lakers just lost by 18. This should be a massive beatdown. 8* Utah |
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03-31-22 | Bucks v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 120-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): It promises to be a VERY interesting finish at the top of the Eastern Conference. Four teams are separated by two games and the defending NBA Champs are right in the mix, one game out of the top spot. I had Milwaukee Tuesday night in Philadelphia as they escaped with a 118-116 win. This team has now won 11 of its last 14, but all three losses have been on the road and four times in the last six games they’ve given up at least 116 points. This time, I’m going to fade the Bucks on the road as they head to Brooklyn to face a Nets team that’s also battling for playoff position. Brooklyn is now 8-3 SU its last 11 games after running out to a 130-123 win over Detroit on Tuesday. They didn’t cover the spread, which was 14 points, dropping to 8-28 ATS at home this season. But that record is a little misleading in that - until recently - Kyrie Irving was ineligible to play here. But Irving is “in the clear” now. It was Kevin Durant leading the way with 41 points on Tuesday. This is a team that has no issue scoring and will be a very dangerous first round matchup, presuming they make it out of the play-in round. Currently, the Nets are 8th and they want to at least maintain that position so they would only need to win once in the play-in round to make the playoffs proper. The Nets won the last meeting, 126-123 in Milwaukee, and that was without Durant. Despite the woeful ATS record at home (it’s a league-worst), I really like the Nets in this spot as I actually think they’re being drastically undervalued on their own floor. Milwaukee is playing its third straight road game while this will be the third straight game at home for Brooklyn. The Bucks are just 4-9 - straight up and against the spread - as underdogs this season. I think they are far more desperate to finish in the top eight than Milwaukee is to finish first. 10* Brooklyn |
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03-29-22 | Bucks +1.5 v. 76ers | Top | 118-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): The Bucks and Sixers are embroiled in what is a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Although I played against Boston last night, I’ve got the Celtics rated as the best of the bunch, followed by the Heat. But then comes the Bucks, the reigning NBA Champs, who will be looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-102 loss to a Memphis team that was without Ja Morant. Previously, the Bucks had won 10 of 12. I’ve got them rated as the better team than the Sixers, so this short line is not a surprise and I’ll play accordingly. Philadelphia has the same 46-28 SU record as Milwaukee, but with an inferior YTD point differential. The Sixers’ point differential is actually worse than seventh place Cleveland, but they are obviously a different team now with James Harden in the mix. Still, they did just lose by 10 at Phoenix on Sunday with Harden shooting 2 of 11 and finishing with only 14 points. I’ll concede the fact that the Sixers have yet to lose B2B games since acquiring Harden, but they’ve also generally faced weak/undermanned opponents when previously in this situation. For what it’s worth, the Sixers are 0-7 ATS on Tuesdays this season. Milwaukee has not been healthy most of this season, but they are close to 100 percent right now, which should be concerning for the rest of the Eastern Conference. Like the Sixers, the Bucks have not lost B2B games since February. They are 8-1 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Off a loss, the Bucks have been better (in terms of scoring differential) than when off a win. When off a double digit loss, the team’s ATS record is 8-4 in 2021-22. I simply believe the road team to be better in this matchup and am banking on them finishing higher in the standings. Therefore, taking the points is a no-brainer (obviously, given the line, I think the Bucks will win SU). 8* Milwaukee |
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03-29-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +4 | Top | 107-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:10 ET): While there’s a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, also keep an eye on the “next tier” where three teams (Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland) are battling to avoid the play-in round. One of the three will be “odd team out” and finish seventh. As of now, that “odd team out” is Cleveland, though they won last night and are just a game behind the other two. Toronto was also a winner on Monday. Chicago was a loser, blowing a double digit lead and going down 109-104 at the hands of the Knicks. The Bulls are the team I believe will finish as “odd team out.” Chicago is lower than Toronto and Cleveland in my power rankings and has the worst YTD point differential of the three. The Bulls, who overachieved in the first half of the season, have only outscored opponents by 0.4 PPG. That gives them an “expected” won-loss record of 38-37 SU. With five more wins than their “expected” win total, the Bulls are actually the biggest overachiever in the league in that regard. Defensively, they’ve fallen off a cliff since the All-Star Break, and the result is a 4-11 SU record in their L15 games. On the second night of a back to back, I can’t see how this team is favored on the road. Washington has won B2B games for the first time in forever. They shot a season-best 57.1% from three-point range in the 123-115 victory over Golden State on Sunday. While I do not think the Wizards will be able to match that lofty percentage here, they should still shoot well against a Bulls team that is giving up 112.5 PPG on the road this season. The Wiz are still technically alive for the playoffs, so don’t expect them to roll over. They’ve won two in a row as dogs and now have two more winnable home games on the docket (host Orlando tomorrow). Take the points. 10* Washington |
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03-28-22 | Thunder v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 134-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:10 ET): The Blazers may officially be at “rock-bottom” right now as they are coming off back to back losses, both at home, to Houston. The team has won just twice since the All-Star Break (in 15 tries), is without Damian Lillard for the rest of the season, and is now bottom five in my power ratings. But something will have to give here as Portland hosts an Oklahoma City team that has just three wins since the Break and two of them came before March 3rd. The Thunder have lost 11 of their last 12. Now OKC has been covering the spread pretty regularly. They come into tonight on a six-game ATS win streak. However, they were underdogs in all six of those contests. Tonight will be just the THIRD time all season that the Thunder are favored to win and the FIRST on the road. This is a team that is 11-26 SU away from home and scoring just 102.5 PPG. The Thunder are 30th (i.e. dead last) in the league in scoring. GETTING points to go against them on the road is a gift, no matter who the opponent may be. Earlier I mentioned that the Blazers don’t have Lillard. Well, OKC has been without its top scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for three of the past four games and there is talk the team may “shut him down” for the remainder of the regular season. The Thunder had just nine players available on Saturday when they lost 113-107 in Denver. The only win for the Thunder in the last three weeks came at home against an Orlando team that is tied for the worst record in the league. At home, Portland plays with pride tonight. 8* Portland |
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03-28-22 | Celtics v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:40 ET): By virtue of picking up their sixth consecutive win last night, 134-112 over Minnesota, Boston is now in first place in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have won 10 of 11 overall and are #2 overall (behind the Suns) in my personal power rankings. But they probably wish they had Monday off as they come into this game at Toronto with the potential of being extremely short-handed. Al Horford and Robert Williams are already listed as out while both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (65 combined points Sunday) are dealing with sore knees. If Boston is the hottest team in the East, then Toronto is not far behind. The Raptors have won 8 of their last 10 games to climb into the top six. With six of their final eight regular season games in Canada, they’ve got an excellent shot at avoiding the play-in round. The team is off one of its highest scoring efforts of the season on Saturday as they destroyed Indiana by a score of 131-91. They were up 28 in the first half and never looked back. Though Boston is trying to hold on to the top spot, they are in a tougher spot (back to back) and this one might mean more to the Raptors, who are in a tight three-way race to avoid the play-in round. Toronto also has double revenge after losing the last two meetings to the Celtics. The teams have not met since November. Another key edge for the home team is that they will be at full strength. Everything sets up beautifully for the Raptors. 10* Toronto |
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03-27-22 | Hornets +7 v. Nets | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:40 ET): Brooklyn treated me to a win last night as they routed Miami, 110-95, on the road. But I wouldn’t trust the Nets laying this many points in the second half of a back to back, even though Kyrie Irving (unvaccinated) is now eligible to play home games. Credit the Nets for winning seven of their last nine games, but this is a team still destined for the play-in round, same as Sunday’s opponent, who has won six of its last seven games. This seems like a great spot to take the points. The Hornets just beat Utah on Friday night, 107-101 as a four-point underdog. That was a game where I cashed the Under. It capped a solid homestand for Charlotte, but the team has also won its last three road games - by an average of more than 20 PPG! The Hornets continued to be underrated by oddsmakers and overlooked by the public. But they are one of the league’s top five scoring teams and when you average 114.7 PPG, you’ll cover more often than not, especially as an underdog. On the road, Charlotte’s scoring average actually goes up to 116.6! Brooklyn has been a disaster at home this season, going 8-26 ATS. Most will attribute that to not having Irving, but overall the Nets are just 15-30 ATS when favored, home or road. They are 4-12 ATS when off a double digit win and 3-8 ATS in the second night of a back to back (2-10 straight up). So, no matter what way you look at it, this is a bad spot for the home favorite. They had two days off prior to last night’s game, after previously losing to Ja Morant-less Grizzlies. 10* Charlotte |
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03-26-22 | Nets -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (8:10 ET): The way things stand now in the Eastern Conference, this could be a potential first round playoff series and I think that would be a nightmare matchup for the top-seeded Heat. Brooklyn has obviously underperformed in 2021-22 and just lost to Memphis, who didn’t have Ja Morant available. But the Nets had won six of seven before that, the lone loss coming by two points at home to Dallas on a buzzer-beater (a game the Nets led by double digits going into the 4Q. Kyrie Irving has now been cleared to play in ALL games (NYC has lifted vaccination requirements), so look out for the Nets. Irving was always going to be able to play tonight regardless and the Nets will definitely be looking for a similar performance to Thursday when he scored a team-high 43 points. Kevin Durant, who is averaging 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists this year, added 35 in the loss to Memphis. The problem was the Nets’ bench combined to go just 2 for 11 from the field and scored only 11 points. For tonight, it’s looking like Goran Dragic and Seth Curry will be in the lineup, a big boost. Of course, it’s hard to win in the NBA when you give up 132 points, which is what Brooklyn did against Memphis. I expect vast improvement at that end of the floor here vs. Miami, who is in a terrible spot after blowing a 17-point 4Q lead last night and losing to the Knicks 111-103. That was the Heat’s third straight loss and they are also 0-6 ATS L6 games. A bad time to go cold on South Beach and second-leading scorer Tyler Herro remains out. Brooklyn is 0-3 SU vs. Miami this year, so this is a huge revenge spot that they’ll be up for. 8* Brooklyn |
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03-25-22 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 53 m | Show |
9* Iowa State (9:59 ET): Everyone seems to really love Miami in this unlikely Sweet 16 matchup, which pits the 10 and 11 seeds of the Midwest Region against one another. I’m not sure why? The gap in defensive efficiency, a very important metric this time of year, is the largest of any Sweet 16 matchup. Iowa State ranks fifth in the country in that regard while Miami is 124th, easily the worst of any of the remaining teams and it’s not particularly close. (Purdue is next lowest at 87th). I actually think that the WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED in this contest and thus I’m grabbing the points. Here’s something noteworthy. Iowa State has not lost a single non-conference game all season! The Cyclones are 15-0 when faced with a team outside the Big 12. I’ve been somewhat skeptical as my power rankings see a team that went 2-22 SU (0-18 in Big 12 play!) last year. But ISU certainly proved me wrong with their win over Wisconsin in Round 2. The bottom line is that the ‘Clones have allowed just 103 points in two games in this tournament with opponents hitting just 6 of 41 (14.6%!) from three-point range. You could argue that’s not sustainable, but so far Miami is just 4 of 29 (13.7%!) from three-point range in the tournament. So look for Iowa State’s defense to win out here. At the same time, I expect their offensive numbers to improve against a Miami team that is suspect defensively. The Hurricanes were fortunate to get out to a double digit lead in the 1H vs. USC in Round 1 as they held on for a two-point win. Then, they shockingly exploded in the 2H against Auburn in Round 2. Auburn shot very poorly in that game (just 30%) and while Iowa State certainly isn’t going to go for 80 points here, they will shoot better than Auburn did. I am just a big “seller” on this Miami team, who I think is the weakest team (besides St. Peter’s) left in the field. 9* Iowa State |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA -2.5 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
10* UCLA (9:39 ET): Coming off an impressive upset of top-seeded Baylor in Round 2, North Carolina now seems to be accumulating quite the bandwagon as they head to the Sweet 16. But it’s hard for me to shake the fact that this Tar Heels team ended up as the three seed in a weak ACC this year. They were beaten by Virginia Tech in the Conference Tournament, then blew all of a 25-point lead (in 10 minutes!) against Baylor, needing OT to pull that upset off. The hot shooting we’ve seen from UNC these first two rounds is NOT likely to persist and I certainly don’t believe UCLA is going to shoot as poorly as Baylor did on Saturday. Meanwhile, UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. I look at this East Region and see a pretty clear path to the Final Four for UCLA, who is one of just four teams left that ranks in the Top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. Why is that important? Because all but one of the last 20 National Champions (2014 UConn) have been Top 25 teams in both categories. I think the Bruins are being drastically undervalued for this Sweet 16 matchup. Now Jaime Jaquez Jr, who is UCLA’s leading rebounder and second leading scorer, is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered last game. And North Carolina’s near choke-job vs. Baylor certainly coincided with the ejection of Brady Manek, who WILL play Friday. But I am steadfast in my assessment of the two teams. UCLA has been better all season and should be favored by more. Don’t be surprised if it’s the defense that gets it done here for the Bruins, who are 7-1 ATS their L8 NCAA Tournament games. 10* UCLA |