Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 151.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under North Carolina/Duke (8:49 ET): Think this game might have some interest? Improbably, in the midst of Coach K’s final run, we’ve got a Duke-North Carolina National Semifinal. This is a rematch from the regular season finale, also Coach K’s final ever game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and the Tar Heels came in and ruined the party with a 94-81 upset (as 11-point underdogs!). I made a “wrong call” with the Under that night. (Total was 153). For the sixth straight time, a Duke-UNC meeting went Over the total. But, perhaps stubbornly, I feel this one will be different. I cashed a Duke Under in Round 1. That’s the play here. Duke has been the exception to the “Tournament rule” to this point. The Under went 10-1-1 last weekend in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The Blue Devils’ 78-73 win over Texas Tech was the lone Over. Their 78-69 win over Arkansas was the push. The Over is now 8-1-1 in Duke’s L10 games. But again, given the shooting we’ve seen in this tournament so far, can the Blue Devils really continue to be immune from an “off-shooting” night? This is the highest O/U line for any Duke tournament game thus far and three of the previous four would have stayed Under. Shooting in the cavernous Superdome (New Orleans) could be a problem - for both teams. Carolina did allow 80 in regulation to Baylor in Round 2. But other than that, they have not allowed more than 66 in any other game. Three of the four opponents have shot 25% or worse from three-point range. The Tar Heels have not shot all that well themselves in the last two games, both of which stayed Under. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke |
|||||||
04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas OVER 132.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Villanova/Kansas (6:09 ET): So Villanova’s last three games have all gone Under. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, the number of total points scored in games involving the Wildcats has steadily decreased (140-132-118-94). So has Nova’s three point shooting (46.4%-34.8%-30.0%-23.8%). Though their Final Four opponent is holding teams below 35% overall shooting for the Tournament, I believe Nova’s shooting and the number of total points per game here are due to INCREASE. For the season, Jay Wright’s team averages 71.9 PPG. This team (and this Tournament) is due for an uptick in scoring. When it comes to the expectation of how Kansas will shoot the basketball on Saturday, I have the same view as I do for Villanova. The Jayhawks have already scored 76+ points in three of their four tourney wins, so I really have less of a concern about their offense. I know that Villanova’s last two opponents have shot 34.4% and 29.8% respectively. But can the Wildcats REALLY count on such putrid three-point shooting from their opponents again? Houston missed 19 of 20 3PA against them in the Elite 8! Kansas averages 78.3 PPG for the season and is #7 in the country in offensive efficiency. Villanova is not far behind, ranking 9th nationally in offensive efficiency. Their three-point shooting, like I said earlier, HAS to get better on Saturday. At the same time, Kansas can’t count on the sort of good fortune they’ve had from the last two opponents putting up bricks. Providence and Miami missed 37 of 44 three-point tries, a stunning bit of futility. This is the lowest O/U line of the tournament for Kansas. Three regular season totals were lower and all either went Over or pushed. I think we’ll see MUCH better shot making in this particular Final Four matchup. 10* Over Villanova/Kansas |
|||||||
04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 126.5 | Top | 85-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Fresno St/Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): Lacking in the pageantry of tomorrow’s Final Four, or even last night’s NIT Final, we’ve got the Championship Game in the inaugural “Basketball Classic” on tap tonight. Fresno State has beaten Eastern Washington, Youngstown State and Southern Utah to get here. That’s a real “rogue’s gallery” of opponents and all three wins were at home. While still favored, the Bulldogs now have to hit the road to face a Coastal Carolina team that’s beaten MD-Eastern Shore, Florida Gulf Coast and South Alabama in this tournament. The Chanticleers’ last win was as close as it gets as they won at South Alabama, in overtime, on a three-pointer with one second remaining. Both these teams have solid defensive numbers. Coastal Carolina gives up only 62.2 PPG at home this season and held South Alabama to 60 in regulation on Monday. But this team can score as well. They average 76.7 PPG at home and this one is in Conway where we last saw them put up 84 on Florida Gulf Coast. This will almost certainly close as the lowest O/U line for any CC game all season, home or road. Fresno State is actually top four in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 58.9 PPG. But they give up slightly more per game on the road. Though they ended up scoring “only” 67 pts in the semifinal win against Southern Utah, the Bulldogs did shoot 50% overall from the field and were 11 of 21 from three-point range. In the first two games of this tournament, they scored 80 and 83 points. I don’t think that FSU is going to be able to hold Coastal Carolina to the kind of numbers we saw against Southern Utah, who shot just 31.1% overall and 4 of 20 from three-point range. This is the lowest O/U of the tournament for FSU. 10* Over Fresno State/Coastal Carolina |
|||||||
03-29-22 | Washington State v. Texas A&M UNDER 133.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Washington St/Texas A&M (9:30 ET): So I’ve had success so far playing Washington State games in the NIT. I took the Under when they beat Santa Clara 63-50 in the opening round, which was quite the defensive performance by Wazzu as they held the Broncos to 26.5 points below their season average. Then came a 75-63 win at SMU, a tough place to play at. Last Wednesday, I was back on the Under train with Wazzu as they beat another WCC team (BYU), 77-58 as a 2.5-point underdog. Pretty clearly, the Cougars have been “locked in” defensively in the NIT, giving up just 57 PPG! Texas A&M, who many felt was “snubbed” by the NCAA Tournament, has also seen the Under hit in all three NIT games. The Under has actually hit four straight times for the Aggies, going back to the SEC Tournament Final vs. Tennessee. The difference between them and Wazzu is that all of A&M’s NIT games (previous to this) were played at home. The Aggies have held Alcorn State, Oregon and Wake Forest to an average of 58 PPG, basically right on par with Wazzu. Not overly concerned with A&M’s transition away from College Station as they held Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee all to 65 points or fewer in the SEC Tournament. Look for the Under to hit again in this NIT semifinal battle. Washington State is allowing under 20% shooting from behind the three-point line in this tournament, which is just incredible. Texas A&M is not particularly adept at three-point shooting as is evident by the fact they’re down around 25% for the tournament. On the flip side, Washington State isn’t a great shooting team either; they’re hitting just over 40% overall from the field this season and A&M also happens to defend the three-point line well. Both teams play slow and are top 32 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Wash St/Texas A&M |
|||||||
03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas OVER 147 | Top | 50-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Miami FL/Kansas (2:20 ET): Well, Kansas is certainly the team we expected to be here. The Jayhawks are the only remaining 1-seed in the Tournament after both Gonzaga and Arizona met their demise in the Sweet 16. KU was able to outlast Providence on Friday, winning 66-61. But for the second straight time they did not cover. Against Creighton, Bill Self’s team won 79-72 as a 12.5-point favorite. They closed as 6.5-point favorites against Providence. Here they’ll find themselves in a similar price range against an unlikely upstart, that being 10-seed Miami. Honestly, I expected that “The U” would lose in the first round to USC. Boy have the Hurricanes proven me wrong. They beat the Trojans 68-66, holding on after taking a double digit lead in the 1H. Then came a shocking upset of 2-seed Auburn, 79-61 as 6.5-point dogs, thanks to a 2H surge. In the Sweet 16, the Canes were short favorites in an unlikely matchup with Iowa State and controlled from start to finish in a 70-56 win and cover. The team is now 10-3 ATS over its last 13 games, 3-0 ATS in the Tournament and also 7-1 ATS its last eight games as a neutral site underdog. They’ll relish the role they are in on Sunday. Over their last six games, Kansas has alternated Overs and Unders. I had the Over in the matchup with Creighton, which ended up 79-72. Shooting was not good - for either side - when the Jayhawks faced Providence. The teams combined to shoot 36.2% overall, including an unsightly 6 of 38 from three-point range. I expect better overall shooting in this game and Kansas probably can’t maintain its current tournament average where opponents are shooting just 34% against them. Similarly, Miami’s last two opponents have shot a woeful 9 of 48 from three-point range! Iowa State attempted only FOUR free throws the entire game, a number Kansas will crush. 10* Over Miami FL/Kansas |
|||||||
03-26-22 | Houston v. Villanova OVER 127.5 | Top | 44-50 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
10* Over Houston/Villanova (6:09 ET): These teams play at two of the slowest paces in the entire country. Both are in the bottom in adjusted tempo per KenPom. So it makes sense that we have a low total for the South Regional Final between Houston and Villanova. But might it be too low? I think so. Houston has had only five games with a lower total, all January 5th or earlier. The last three all went Over. One of the two that didn’t came against Virginia, who plays at an even slower tempo than Villanova. As for ‘Nova, they’ve had only ONE game all year with an O/U line lower than 128. It pushed as they only gave up 42 points. The Wildcats will not hold Houston to 42 points here. Villanova has seen its own overall shooting percentage decline with each passing game in this tournament. They shot 50.9% vs. Delaware, then 44.2% vs. Ohio State and finally 37.3% vs. Michigan. Total points have declined from 80 to 71 to 63 as has three point shooting 46.4% to 34.8% to 30.0%. Do we really expect offensive numbers to decline across the board for a fourth consecutive game? It hasn’t happened all year. The average number of total points scored in Villanova games this season is 135.2. I believe the Wildcats can score at least 64 here. While Villanova’s overall FG% defense has improved with each passing game, teams are hitting better from three, peaking with Michigan’s 34.4% on Thursday. That’s good news for a Houston team that has made over 45% of its threes in two of three tourney games so far. The Cougars are averaging 74 PPG in the tournament. In the last 13 games, the fewest points scored by UH is 61. In the other 12, they scored at least 69. Their average number of total points per game scored this season is 134.7. Looking at the numbers, I simply feel that the value is on the Over here. 10* Over Houston/Villanova |
|||||||
03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA UNDER 141.5 | Top | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under North Carolina/UCLA (9:39 ET): UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. This Bruins team is 14th in the country in defensive efficiency and thus I believe they are capable of doing what neither Marquette or Baylor could do and that’s slow down this North Carolina offense. Going back to February 12th, only one team has been able to score more than 68 against UCLA and that was Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. At the same time, I can’t see UCLA shooting as well as they did in the last round (when they made 56.5% of their field goal attempts). North Carolina has surprisingly held its first two tourney opponents to 35% overall shooting. They held Marquette to just 63 points in the first round. The second round saw the Tar Heels hold Baylor to just 29 first half points. But then came the big ejection of Brady Manek, which led to UNC blowing a 25-point lead (in the final 10 minutes of regulation) amidst a massive defensive breakdown. With Manek back in the lineup, we won’t see another defensive breakdown like that. UCLA star forward Jaime Jaquez sprained his ankle against St. Mary’s and thus is questionable to play Friday. I think the Bruins can survive without him, but potentially being without your second leading scorer and top rebounder is tough. This is a much higher O/U line than usual for the Bruins. Note the O/U lines for the first two tourney games were 128 and 126! This is just the third total north of 140 for UCLA since Feb 3rd. Remember that North Carolina was held to an average of just 61 PPG in two ACC Tourney games. They won’t score anywhere close to what they did in the first two rounds of this tournament. 8* Under North Carolina/UCLA |
|||||||
03-24-22 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 135.5 | Top | 55-63 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
**Note: Michigan PG Jones still listed as questionable as of press time. I think the Wolverines are due for a downturn offensively, regardless of what Jones' status ends up being. If he plays, there could be some "rust." 10* Under Michigan/Villanova (7:27 ET): Through two games in this tournament, Michigan has shot 52% from the floor and averaged 75.5 PPG. They beat Colorado State by 12 (despite trailing by seven at the half) and then stunned Tennessee 76-68, again overcoming a halftime deficit. It would definitely be a surprise if they could win again, but stranger things have happened in March. I did cash the Wolverines in the first round and they are clearly a team that was better than their regular season record. But this game against Villanova promises to be a grind. Second seeded Villanova has handled its business against Delaware and Ohio State, winning those two games by a combined 30 points. As expected, it was not very difficult to oust the Fighting Blue Hens as a 35-10 run put that game away. ‘Nova held Delaware to 3 of 20 from three-point range. Then, against Ohio State, the Wildcats raced out to a sizable early advantage before holding on for a 71-61 win. While Michigan has 14 losses on the year, Villanova has lost only one time since Feb 5 and that was by only two points. I think a big key when betting the total here is noting that Villanova plays at one of the slowest tempos in all of College Basketball. They are 345th in pace. This is a strong defensive team, one that averages just 62.9 PPG allowed. Michigan is due for a downturn in shooting and ‘Nova is allowing a FG% of just 40.9 for the year. They also allow teams to shoot only 30.6% from three-point range. We’ve also seen Michigan put the clamps down defensively, holding CSU and Tennessee to just 27 and 31 pts in the 2H, respectively. Tennessee didn’t make a single three-pointer in the 2H on Saturday. 10* Under Michigan/Villanova |
|||||||
03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU UNDER 142.5 | Top | 77-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
8* Under Washington State/BYU (9:00 ET): I think these might be the two of the top three teams left in the NIT. Coming into the Tournament, Oklahoma was the highest rated in my power rankings, but the Sooners are out. That leaves Wake Forest as the highest one left, then these two. In fact, the four highest rated teams remaining are all on one side of the bracket with Wake, A&M and these two. Enough of that though. I had success with a previous Washington State Under and that’s the way I’m playing tonight’s quarterfinal at BYU as this is a very solid team defensively. Now stopping Brigham Young may seem like a challenge. The Cougars have scored 90+ points in their first two NIT games, beating Long Beach State and Northern Iowa. But neither of those teams are as solid as Wazzu at the defensive end. Note that when I last played the Under with Wazzu, they were facing another WCC team (Santa Clara) that came in averaging 76.5 PPG. The Broncos had scored 89 or more in three of their last four games, but were held to just 50 points (on 30.0% shooting) by Washington State. Wazzu is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and kept SMU to 63 in the second round, including 20 in the 1H, on the road. But Washington State also has shot just under 35% from the field in this tournament. They were 6 of 24 from three-point range vs. SMU. BYU is also pretty staunch at the defensive end, especially here in Provo where they allow just 63.9 PPG. Visiting teams are hitting just 29.4% from three-point range here. In sum, you cannot expect BYU to shoot the ball as well as they have in the first two NIT games. But their own defensive prowess will keep them in this one, a battle of Cougars which looks to stay Under the total. 8* Under Washington State/BYU |
|||||||
03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier UNDER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier (9:00 ET): Xavier is probably no worse than the Marquette team that got slaughtered (by North Carolina) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. But with an 18-13 SU regular season record, the Musketeers were simply not going to get into the Big Dance, particularly after losing six of their last seven games. So they had to settle on the NIT and that’s gone well with a 72-68 win over Cleveland State and 72-56 win over Florida. Another SEC team comes to campus for Tuesday’s quarterfinals, that being Vanderbilt, who has beaten Belmont (82-71) and Dayton (70-68) thus far. This will be the first time Vandy has had to leave home in the NIT. Their first two games were both in Nashville. Now they’ll try and make it an “Ohio double” after beating Dayton (in overtime) last time out. The Commodores have fared quite well at the betting window down the stretch; covering 11 of their last 15 games. They just missed out against Dayton as three point favorites. As underdogs, the Commies have covered five straight times. But it’s another streak that I’m looking at here, them having produced four straight Overs. Away from home, I don’t see this team shooting all that well. Also, that last game (vs. Dayton) would NOT have gone Over without OT. Vandy isn’t a great shooting team to begin with. Their FG% for the season is only 42.4. I look at the L5 games and see a team that has been scoring well above their season average (78.2 PPG). For the year, the Commodores are averaging just 70.7 PPG. Xavier allows just 64.8 PPG at home and has held its previous two NIT opponents to only 62 PPG. What will keep Vandy in this one though is the fact they are 38th in the country in defensive efficiency and allow just 30% shooting from three-point land. Xavier is actually better than that (at home), allowing just 29.4%. Neither team is great at the FT line either. Xavier’s second leading scorer (PG Scruggs) is questionable after leaving the last game with a knee injury. 10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier |
|||||||
03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama OVER 139.5 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama (8:00 ET): So this is “The Basketball Classic,” a new tournament for this year that replaced the CIT. Honestly, it feels like the organizers are kind of “making the rules up as they go along here” as you’ve got one team (Portland) already with a bye into the quarterfinals and four second round matchups, so we’re going to be left with five teams and I don’t really understand how that’s going to be resolved! What I do know is that this matchup between USC Upstate and South Alabama should feature plenty of points. USC Upstate, who finished with the fourth best record in the Big South this year, hung 80 in a first round upset at Appalachian State last Tuesday. Despite being 10.5-point underdogs, the Spartans led most of the game, although they did blow all of a 12-point lead in the second half. It ended up being their highest scoring game since 2/2, but USC Upstate has now scored 70 or more points in five of its last six games and that’s all we probably need from them tonight. South Alabama grinded out a 70-68 win over SE Louisiana in the first round. The Jaguars did not cover the nine-point spread in that game as they blew a 17-point 2H lead. The last five games have seen USA score well below their season average of 71.3 PPG, so I expect them to get on track offensively here against an opponent that ranks outside of the top 300 in defensive efficiency. At home, the Jaguars average 75.4 PPG and that’s the exact number USC Upstate is allowing per game on the road. 10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama |
|||||||
03-20-22 | Miami-FL v. Auburn UNDER 143.5 | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
8* Under Miami/Auburn (7:45 ET): I have no unearthly idea how Miami was able to defeat USC in the first round. The Hurricanes were outshot, 48.0% to 42.9%, and made only ONE three-point shot (on 17 attempts) for the game. But they did enjoy a +10 advantage in FT attempts and that, coupled with a fast start, allowed them to hold on for the 68-66 upset as two-point underdogs. I would not at all be surprised to see the ‘Canes get run out of the gym by Auburn on Sunday, but the better play (in my view) is on the Under here. Auburn didn’t have any difficulty disposing of Jacksonville State on Friday. That was an 80-61 victory as 14.5-point underdogs. In retrospect, that was a shockingly low number for a 2-15 matchup, especially considering Jacksonville State did NOT win its conference tournament. Auburn allowed just 31.1% in that game. Incredibly, only TWO teams have shot better than 45% this season against the Tigers. Those were UConn (49.3%) on 11/24 and Kentucky (50%) on 1/22. Given Miami’s own offensive struggles on Friday, I’m not worried about them shooting the lights out here. Auburn has scored 80 or more in three of its last four games, but those efforts were all against overmatched opponents; a 15-seed and two non-tourney teams. Miami’s defensive efficiency numbers are not great, but I think they can keep the Tigers in relative check here. Jaylin Williams and Walker Kessler ran into each other against Jacksonville State, getting banged up in the process. Bruce Pearl expects to have both Sunday, but don’t discount the injuries. 8* Under Miami/Auburn |
|||||||
03-19-22 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas UNDER 138.5 | Top | 48-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas (8:40 ET): New Mexico State made me look foolish in Round 1, upsetting UConn 70-63, thus continuing the 12 vs. 5 seed trend. It was Aggies’ first NCAA Tournament win since the early 90s. Now they’ll meet an Arkansas team that outlasted an upset bid from upstart Vermont. The Razorbacks won 75-71 on Thursday, but did not cover the spread. That was a game where scoring really picked up in the 2H (85 pts) after a relatively low-scoring first half (61 points). As someone who had the Under in that Arkansas-Vermont matchup, I was quite sad. So both of these teams “owe me” one on Saturday. Arkansas’ last seven games have all gone Over. That’s the longest O/U streak of any team left in the tournament. This is a top 20 team in the country in defensive efficiency and I expect the Razorbacks to advance here. Look for them to do it with defense. NMSU isn’t anywhere near as prolific as Vermont when it comes to shooting the basketball. Now the Aggies did shoot a ridiculous 64.7% from three-point range (11 of 17) against UConn, but that is a number they certainly will not be repeating here. For the year, they’re at just 33.5% from behind the arc. Arkansas has its own issues shooting from long distance as they are just 30.9% for the season. So NMSU may be able to stick around because of that. The Aggies did just hold UConn to only 63 points. It’s interesting that both teams’ games were VERY low-scoring in the first half, yet still went Over. Don’t see that happening here. Arkansas held Vermont to 27 points in the 1H while NMSU held UConn to 22. Look for the underdog to try and slow the pace and limit possessions. Only two of the Aggies’ last seven games would have made it Over this total. Teddy Allen will NOT score 37 again here like he did vs. UConn. Keep in mind the rest of the team made just 13 field goals and attempted ZERO free throws. 10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas |
|||||||
03-19-22 | Creighton v. Kansas OVER 139 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
8* Over Creighton/Kansas (2:45 ET): Creighton was really lucky to advance over San Diego State, as the Bluejays scored the final nine points of regulation and the Aztecs missed a free throw that would have clinched the game. However, the 72-69 OT win wasn’t all good fortune for Creighton as starting big man Ryan Kalkbrenner hurt his knee and he won’t be back. That means the Bluejays are now without two of their top three players as Ryan Nembhard, the Big East Freshman of the Year, was already lost to injury. However, led by another freshman (Trey Alexander), I still expect Creighton to put a decent number of points on the board Saturday against Kansas. The top-seeded Jayhawks breezed through their first round game, as expected, beating Texas Southern 83-56 with an effective FG% of 58.0. Kansas is one of the top offensive teams in the country, has shot 50% or better from the field in three of its last four games and averages 78.7 PPG. They are #5 in the country in offensive efficiency. With Kalkbrenner out for Creighton, expect KU’s David McCormack to have a “field day” on the inside here. Also, expect Big XII Player of the Year Ochai Agbagi to have a more productive game than he did Thursday when he finished with only 11 points. With Creighton may be a bit short-handed coming into the second round, I do expect they will dramatically improve upon their three-point shooting from the first round, which was a woeful 14.3%. Over their L2 games, the Blue Jays have hit only 5 of 43 3PA, which is just insane. I know that even with OT, they managed just 72 pts on Thursday. But San Diego State is one of the top defensive teams in the entire country. Kansas is not nearly as stout and will find Creighton much more difficult to defend than Texas Southern was. 8* Over Creighton/Kansas |
|||||||
03-18-22 | CS-Fullerton v. Duke UNDER 145.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under CS-Fullerton/Duke (7:10 ET): While the Duke defense has been a complete mess lately, giving up an average of 82.8 points over the last four games and ranking 224th nationally in efficiency, I don’t see the Blue Devils giving up a ton of points to Cal State Fullerton in this first round matchup. CS Fullerton doesn’t take a ton of threes, so the Titans’ best bet is to keep this one low-scoring. I think they will and the fact Duke’s last games have all gone Over has this number too high. Take the Under. It;s obviously against inferior Big West competition, but the last five games have seen Cal State Fullerton hold its opponents to 39.9% shooting from the floor. In the first two Big West Tourney games, they held opponents to 55 and 46 points. In the Final, they upset top seeded Long Beach State 72-71, thanks to their own hot shooting as they made 52% overall from the field, including 11 of 20 from three-point range. Though I expect them to cover here, I can’t see the Titans matching those percentages against Duke. This is a pretty high total for both teams. CS Fullerton is 16-5 Under its last 21 non-conference games. For the season, their games only average 136.5 PPG total. They’ve had just ONE O/U line north of 145.0 all season and that was in the very first game. The Under is 4-0 the last four times that the Titans have been underdogs. Duke has shot below 25% from three-point range in its last two games and the O/U line for the ACC Tournament Final against Virginia Tech was much lower than this one. 8* Under CS-Fullerton-Duke |
|||||||
03-17-22 | Vermont v. Arkansas UNDER 139.5 | Top | 71-75 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 5 m | Show |
9* Under Vermont/Arkansas (9:20 ET): This promises to be a very popular upset pick as Vermont is a very legit team out of the America East. The Catamounts come into the NCAA Tournament on a real roll, having won eight straight. They hit 60% of their two-point FG attempts and 40% from three-point range in conference play. But I think many be selling Arkansas “short,” as the Razorbacks are a Top 16 team in the country in defensive efficiency and clearly better than any of the other teams from the America East. What I like here is the game to go Under the total as Vermont’s shots won’t be falling at the normal rate. Note that doesn’t mean the Catamounts can’t win here. Arkansas shoots just 30.8% from three-point range, so I hardly see them “running away with things.” Even when the Hogs ripped off 13 wins in 15 games, their three-point percentage didn’t go up much. In five of their last seven games, they shot BELOW their already poor season average from behind the arc. In 9 of 20 conference games, the Razorbacks averaged less than one point per possession. Vermont’s defense is not at all bad (just 60.3 PPG allowed), so again, I’m not looking for the favorite to score a ton here. Arkansas’ last six games all went Over the total, so I think we’re getting a good number here. Vermont has not lost in regulation since Dec 7, but again, you have to take into account the weak competition. Five of the Catamounts’ last six games stayed Under and the one that didn’t required a 98-point effort from them, the likes of which we clearly will not see here, against lowly NJIT. I do think this play comes down to Vermont’s defense, which has not allowed more than 61 points in a game since Valentine’s Day. Given Arkansas’ poor three-point shooting, they’ve got a shot. The Under is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six NCAA Tourney games. 9* Under Vermont/Arkansas |
|||||||
03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers UNDER 132 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers (9:10 ET): Notre Dame finished the regular season as the 2-seed in the ACC, but I thought it would have been pretty ludicrous to consider the Fighting Irish the second best team in that conference. My power ratings had four ACC teams rated higher, including Wake Forest, who didn’t even make the Big Dance. The Irish could only manage a 3-3 split in their last six games, but still made their first NCAA Tournament appearance in five years. Rutgers had some nice upsets this season, including four straight wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois. However, three of those four were in Piscataway and the Scarlet Knights simply aren’t the same team away from home that they are at the RAC. They have just four wins away from home all season and have dropped four of six overall. Rutgers was in the Tourney last year and made the Round of 32. Led by Ron Harper Jr, this is the first time the program has made B2B appearances in the Big Dance in 40 years. I think this one is set to be low-scoring and I am on the Under. I know that the Over is 7-0-1 in ND’s last eight games, but they are facing a Rutgers team that is 43rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That’s significant because no ACC teams rank higher than that. On the flip side, Rutgers only shoots 33.6% from three-point range and that’s not going to cut it. Before losing to Iowa in the Big 10 Tournament, the Scarlet Knights had not topped 66 in four straight games, all of which stayed Under. 10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers |
|||||||
03-15-22 | Santa Clara v. Washington State UNDER 150 | Top | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
03-12-22 | Virginia Tech v. Duke UNDER 138.5 | Top | 82-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Va Tech/Duke (8:30 ET): This is a crucial game for Virginia Tech, who is considered among the “first four out” (for the NCAA Tournament) according to both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm. Coming into the ACC Tournament, I had the Hokies as the second best team in the conference, so I’m not surprised they’ve made it thus far. They were actually a pick ‘em vs. #2 seed Notre Dame, then turned in a very impressive performance last night in defeating North Carolina 72-59. It would be a crime if Va Tech missed the NCAA Tournament as my power rankings call them a Top 25 team in the country. My only concern with the Hokies coming into tonight’s Tourney Final vs. Duke is that they may not have a ton left in the tank. This will be their fourth game in as many days, a stretch which began with an OT win over Clemson. I also would not be confident in the Hokies shooting 45% from three-point range again like they did last night. The Hokies have scored above their season average in every game in this tournament. Do we really think they can do that for the fourth straight game? Duke is 0-2 ATS in ACC Tournament games, having been tested more than expected by Syracuse and Miami. We know the Blue Devils can score, but even by their standard, the past five games (all of which have gone Over) have been a bit outrageous. They are averaging 86.4 points on 51.4% shooting. Those numbers are due to come down. Va Tech held UNC to 3 of 26 from three-point range last night. When these teams played in the regular season, they snuck over by two points, but that was with Duke shooting 53% from the field. I don’t think they’ll shoot that well here. 10* Under Va Tech/Duke |
|||||||
03-11-22 | USC v. UCLA UNDER 137 | Top | 59-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under USC/UCLA (11:30 ET): This is one of the better matchups on Friday’s entire docket as rivals USC and UCLA meet in the Pac 12 Tournament’s second semi final. USC had to rally in the second half last night to get by Washington 65-61 and did not cover the 6.5-point spread. UCLA just barely covered the nine-point spread in a 75-65 win over Washington State. UCLA comes in ranked 13th in the country, perhaps a bit low, while USC is 21st and I definitely think that’s too high. While I may believe the Trojans to be overrated, I’m not about to fade them in this scenario. I expect a tight and relatively low-scoring game. Five of the previous USC-UCLA meetings have stayed Under the total, the exception being the last one. That game was played last weekend and despite losing, USC shot very well from three-point range (42.1%). The fact they could only score 68 points on the Bruins with that kind of three-point shooting is a little ominous. I don’t expect USC to shoot that well from three again here. UCLA has gone Over in four straight, but they have not allowed more than 68 points in any of the last nine games. The Under is 10-2 their L12 games vs. a team with a win percentage above .600. The Under is also 6-2 the last eight times they’ve been off an ATS win. USC is 5-0 Under its last five neutral site games. In terms of tempo, neither side plays particularly fast. 10* Under USC/UCLA |
|||||||
03-10-22 | Cal-Riverside v. Hawaii OVER 124.5 | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii (11:30 ET): This is the #3 vs. #6 (seed) matchup in the Big West quarterfinals. Hawaii, despite being seeded higher, is a slight underdog here in Henderson, NV. The Warriors won five of seven to end the regular season, capping the run with a dominant 84-62 win over Cal State Northridge in the finale. Given the number of points they scored there, combined with UC Riverside’s recent trend, this O/U line looks far too low. I’m going Over. So UC Riverside has seen the Over hit in each of its last seven games. The last one had a total of 142 (they lost 73-72 to Long Beach State). Given that final score, I’m truly amazed at how LOW this total is as none of Riverside’s last seven games have seen fewer than 136 total points scored. Now, the Highlanders have been scoring WELL above their season average recently. But even for the year, their games average 130.2 points. The one time these teams played in the regular season, the game did stay Under. It was a 64-59 Riverside victory as three-point home favorites. Note that the total for that game was higher than it is here. Also, in the first meeting, the teams combined to go 12 of 35 from three-point range. I expect better shooting here. UC Riverside has shot 54% overall from the field in its last five games and Hawaii is shooting 36% from three-point range for the season. 8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii |
|||||||
03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall UNDER 144.5 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall (9:30 ET): What an absolutely atrocious season it has been for Patrick Ewing and Georgetown. The Hoyas shockingly won the Big East Tournament last year, but haven’t won a conference game since as they finished the regular season 0-19 SU vs. the rest of the BE! Needless to say, there is NOT going to be a repeat of LY’s Cinderella run. I fully expect that the Hoyas’ season will end today, but of course they are big underdogs. I think the better play is on the total. Seton Hall is a team that I have some faith in. The Pirates might only be the 6-seed in this tournament, but my power ratings actually call them a Top 25 team in the country! I would favor them, on a neutral court, over regular season champ Providence. Unfortunately for SH, one of the two BE teams I think is better (UConn) awaits them in the next round. I also don’t trust the Pirates laying double digits here, particularly after they failed to cover against G’town last week (won by only five). That meeting last week just barely stayed Under the number (145) as it was a 73-68 final. The first meeting also stayed Under and was even lower-scoring (70-63). At a neutral site (Madison Square Garden), I don’t think we’ll be seeing a higher scoring game as the Pirates are 15-4 Under their L19 games vs. teams that have losing records. Only one of their last 11 games overall would have gone Over this total. Georgetown is shooting just 38.5% away from home this year, Seton Hall isn’t much better. 9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall |
|||||||
03-08-22 | Delaware v. NC-Wilmington OVER 134 | Top | 59-55 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Both teams involved in the CAA Tourney Final have gone Under in four straight games. But I believe we’re getting some tremendous value here with this number, considering the last time Delaware and UNC Wilmington met, the O/U line closed at 143.5. Now, that matchup did stay Under, but that was because UNC Wilmington only managed to shoot 40% overall and 2 of 15 from three-point range (still won 69-62). It should be noted that the season’s first meeting, a 70-68 UNCW victory, did go Over the total. So will this third installment. It is a surprise that Delaware has gotten thus far. The Blue Hens were the 5-seed entering this tournament and last night pulled an upset over the top seed, Towson, winning 69-56 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Blue Hens really benefited from poor Towson shooting as the Tigers shot just 31% overall and were a hideous 4 of 23 from three-point range. While Delaware held both tournament opponents to just 56 points, I don’t think they can count on UNCW shooting as poorly as Towson did last night. Also, Delaware gives up 70.3 PPG on the year. I’ve gone through UNC Wilmington’s season before; they have been an extremely fortunate team that always seems to win close. Last night was no different as the second seeded Seahawks outlasted Charleston 60-57. I made the mistake of betting against them. Not going to get in their way again. But like Delaware, UNCW probably can’t count on the same defensive numbers they turned in last night as they held Charleston to a 38.3 FG% with only four made three-pointers and seven made free throws. I think this number is too low. 8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington |
|||||||
03-06-22 | College of Charleston v. Hofstra UNDER 160.5 | Top | 92-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
9* Under Charleston/Hofstra (8:30 ET): Ok, I don’t think for a second that this game will be as high-scoring as the regular season finale, when Hofstra beat Charleston 89-84. Hofstra is very good at forcing turnovers, but even by their standard, last Monday was preposterous. They forced Charleston into 28 TO’s, a season-high, and obviously feasted off those. Assuming the Cougars cut down on the number of turnovers, that should limit fast-break opportunities for the Pride and I like this game to stay Under a (very) high total. Over their last five games, Charleston has shot a somewhat insane 54.1% from the field. That can’t continue. For the year, the Cougs are shooting just 43.8%. Because of their tempo, this team is always going to score a decent amount of points. But what we’ve seen from them lately is simply not sustainable. Charleston also made 52% of its three-point attempts in the last game. That won’t be repeated either as they are shooting just 33.7% from behind the arc for the season. Hofstra is also a high-scoring team, but this total is high even by their standard. Seeing a total open at 160 or higher in today’s day and age is quite rare. I know that the last game closed at 160, but that was a season-high for both teams. With a cleaner game by Charleston (who won’t shoot as well) and it being at a neutral court, this one promises to stay Under. The first meeting of the season, also won by Hofstra, was a 76-73 final. Look for something along those lines tonight. 9* Under Charleston/Hofstra |
|||||||
03-05-22 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 153.5 | Top | 94-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
8* Under North Carolina/Duke (6:00 ET): It’s Coach K’s swan song at Cameron Indoor Stadium as this is set to be his final home game on the Duke bench. It’s obviously going to be an emotional setting, facing rival North Carolina in the last game of the regular season. Duke is clearly the class of the ACC this season and beat UNC handily, 87-67, in Chapel Hill earlier this year. Not surprisingly, the Blue Devils are big favorites for the rematch. But I think the better play is on the total. In that first meeting, Duke shot a blistering 57.6% from the field. Can’t see that happening again. The teams also combined to shoot 18 of 40 from three-point range, a very high percentage. Again, don’t look for that to be repeated. With all the pregame festivities planned for this game, I can see the shooters affected and this game to get off to a slow start offensively. The last five UNC-Duke games have all gone Over the total, but none will have the emotion of this one. It will not be the kind of “up and down” game we saw last month. Duke is also due to cool off here after shooting a blistering 59% against Pittsburgh earlier in the week. In that game, they made 50% of their 3PA. Again, these kinds of numbers simply can’t be produced every game. Note, after the hot shooting in the first UNC matchup, the Blue Devils came back down to Earth 48 hours later and shot just 42.3% in a loss to Virginia. The final score of North Carolina’s last game, 88-79 over Syracuse, is misleading when you consider that it went to overtime. It was 72-72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame UNDER 133 | Top | 54-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame (2:30 ET): The Fighting Irish have an excellent chance of finishing second in the ACC. All they need to do is win here and have North Carolina lose to Duke. The odds of that happening are certainly good. Now, do I think for a second that ND is actually the second best team in the ACC? No. But we can tackle that at a later date. Here, I’m focused on the total, which I believe is too high against a Pitt team that is inept offensively and won’t score very many points Saturday. Take the Under. Pitt is near the bottom of the ACC with a 6-13 SU record in conference play. Only NC State and Georgia Tech will finish below the Panthers and it’s likely to be a quick exit in next week’s ACC Tournament. Pitt comes into the regular season finale on a three-game losing streak, every one of the losses coming at home, and the last two were blowouts. I mentioned earlier that the Panthers are not a strong offensive team; they average just 60.5 points per game away from home this season. Notre Dame is allowing just 63.8 PPG in South Bend, so expect Pitt to score fewer here than the 67 they finished with in the first meeting, back in December. The Panthers haven’t scored more than 64 in any of their last three games. Notre Dame, who has seen the Over hit in each of its last six games, is due to have a low-scoring game. Pitt has been victimized by hot shooting each of its last two games, but don’t be surprised if ND shoots worse than usual here as they are off a loss (74-70 to Florida State) and 4-1-1 Under off their L6 SU losses. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Illinois State v. Northern Iowa UNDER 147 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Illinois State/Northern Iowa (1:00 ET): This is the first of four MVC quarterfinals on Friday. The top seed is Northern Iowa, who had a bit of a shocking late season run to earn its position, beating conference favorite Loyola Chicago (in overtime) in the final game of the regular season. The Panthers have won 9 of 10 (lone loss was a blowout to Loyola) and have shot the lights out in each of their last three games. But in this early start, I’m looking for scoring to be a lot lower than expected. Illinois State had to win a game to get here. The Redbirds downed Indiana State yesterday, in an ugly 58-53 game where they covered the spread as 1.5-point chalk. ISU has been one of the more unlucky teams in the country this season, but now finds itself playing with “house money.” It can’t be ignored that before defeating Indiana State twice (also faced them in the reg season finale), the Redbirds had lost 10 of 11. Really, their only chance here is to slow the game down. They can’t outscore Northern Iowa. Let me point out that both regular season meetings between these teams stayed Under. There were 142 and 143 total pts scored in those games. Looking through the season results, this is a high O/U line for both teams. Both have had only two games where the O/U line was higher than 149. Northern Iowa has shot better than 55% over its L3 games, a number they cannot possibly maintain at a neutral setting. The Panthers have gone 21-8 Under in their L29 MVC Tourney games. 8* Under Illinois St/Northern Iowa |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Northern Colorado v. Montana UNDER 147.5 | Top | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana (9:00 ET): The Big Sky regular season is wrapping up this week. This is an important game with Northern Colorado and Montana battling for seeding. Both are locks to finish in the top five, which means a bye in the first round. But both also have a chance to finish as high as second depending on how things go. Montana is coming off a big upset win over Montana State, who has already clinched the regular season title. Northern Colorado just won a wild game over Idaho. Since I am playing the total here, I should probably mention that EVERY Montana game in the month of February went Over. That’s eight straight Overs. They’ve allowed three straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the floor. But the key here is how the Golden Grizzlies’ defense improves - remarkably - at home where they are giving up an average of only 58.2 PPG this season. That’s top 16 in the country! Against Montana State on Sunday, they allowed just ONE three-pointer to be made! Northern Colorado has gone Over in four straight and beat Idaho 98-94 on Sunday (no overtime!). Both teams shot 55% in that game, which I can’t see being replicated here. Because of all the Overs, this number opened 17.5 points higher than the closing O/U line for the first meeting. So I’m seeing lots of value here. This is a very high total by Montana standards. In fact, it’s the highest O/U line for any of their games this season. 10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana |
|||||||
02-05-22 | Mercer v. Chattanooga OVER 136 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga (12:00 ET): Chattanooga’s 80-72 loss to Samford earlier in the week (as 7-point favorites) dropped the Mocs out of first place in the SoCon, leaving them a half game back of Furman. They look to bounce back Saturday, at home, against third place Mercer. We’ve seen six straight games from Chattanooga with 71-78 points. That’s very consistent. They also come into Saturday averaging 80.0 PPG at home for the year. Leading scorer Malachi Smith struggled in the last game, but should bounce back here. Mercer has been far less consistent this year, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. The Bears are third worst in the SoCon in terms of defensive efficiency, ranking 276th nationally. That’s not good. I expect the Bears to really struggle to defend here against a team that’s making 39% of its three-point attempts at home. I realize that the last seven Mercer games have all stayed Under the total, but 12 of the previous 14 meetings with Chattanooga have gone Over. Smith is averaging 20.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game this season. Off a loss, he averages 26.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. In the loss to Samford, Smith only attempted ONE free throw and was 4 of 12 from the field. So, as I said earlier, look for a bounce back game from him this afternoon. Mercer has size issues and going against a Mocs team that has an excellent offensive rebounding percentage likely means trouble. I do think Mercer will put up a surprising number of points here as well. 8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga |
|||||||
02-04-22 | Fairfield v. Monmouth OVER 133.5 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth (7:00 ET): These teams met two weeks ago and it was a low-scoring game. Monmouth won 61-58, just barely covering the 2.5-point spread. Examining the Hawks’ results this season, one thing that jumps out to me is they score a lot more at home. They are averaging 76.6 PPG in their own gym, as opposed to just 67.3 elsewhere. The disparity became even more pronounced in January when they failed to top 62 (points) in any of their three road games. But they scored 85, 78, 72 and 69 in the four at home. With this being a home game, I expect Monmouth to put up a lot more points than they did the first time against Fairfield. The team’s last three games, all here at home, have been remarkably consistent with 140, 139 and 139 total points scored. This is among the lowest O/U lines set for one of their games all season. Only the last one, a 70-69 loss to Niagara (as 8-point chalk) was lower. That game went Over despite the Hawks only shooting 30% from the field. They’ll certainly shoot better than that tonight. Fairfield’s home vs. road splits are pretty consistent. Their games average almost 140 PPG, no matter where they’re at. The Stags’ two games since the loss to Monmouth both went Over as they beat Marist 69-66 and Rider 76-65 on the road. Of their last five games, the only one that would NOT have gone Over the current O/U line for this game was the one against Monmouth. The total for that game closed at 139.5, so I see value here. 10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth |
|||||||
01-30-22 | Colorado v. Washington State OVER 132 | Top | 43-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* Over Colorado/Washington State (10:00 ET): Wazzu started out the season by going Over the total in each of the first five games. Since then, the Under is 11-2 their last 13 games. They’ve gone Over in just one game during the month of January, but that was against tonight’s opponent, Colorado. That game ended up as an 83-79 final, in favor of the Buffaloes. It was the first game for CU in nearly three weeks because of COVID-19. Washington State had been off for two weeks for the same reason. The Cougars didn’t even have Noah Williams in that first meeting and he is the team’s second leading scorer. Shooting was not particularly outrageous from either side. So, yes, I think the teams are capable of going Over another low total on Sunday night. Eventually, Washington State’s shooting in conference play is bound to improve. They are making only 39% of their FG attempts against Pac 12 opposition, which is really bad. The shots have to start falling, sooner or later, and at least they’re at home tonight where they scored 71 points last time out (despite shooting only 36.9%) in a win over Utah. Wazzu won that last game, rather handily, as it also held the Utes to 54 points on 39.1% shooting. Defense has not been a problem for the Cougs, but when they last faced CU, they allowed 51% shooting. Colorado shot a dreadful 34% overall in Thursday’s 60-58 loss to Washington. They were rather lucky the game ended up so close as UW was just 4 of 17 from three-point range and 8 of 17 from the free throw line. I think we’ll be getting some points tonight! 8* Over Colorado/Washington State |
|||||||
01-27-22 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 145.5 | Top | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska (5:00 ET): Well, taking the Under the last time Wisconsin took the floor turned out to be the incorrect play. But, if at first you don’t succeed, then try again. Tonight’s matchup seems far more conducive to an Under, even though the opponent (Nebraska) is not so hot defensively. I think the big key is that Nebraska - unlike Michigan State - is simply incapable of scoring 86 points. That’s how many Michigan State put up on the Badgers last Friday. This will be Nebraska’s first game in 10 days due to COVID. This matchup was originally set to take place on Tuesday, but the Cornhuskers were dealing with health and safety protocol. Last Saturday’s game vs. Ohio State also had to be postponed. So I would not be surprised if it’s a “sluggish” start from the home team in this one. It’s also unlikely that the Cornhuskers will EVER get hot from three-point range tonight; they are sinking only 29.8% of their 3PA for the season! It’s been a tough season in Lincoln. The key here is Nebraska keeping Wisconsin’s offense in check. Fortunately, the Badgers are second in the country at turning the ball over. I don’t think that’s going to lead to an abundance of points for Nebraska, but it will lead to plenty of empty possessions by the road team. The Cornhuskers are second in the Big 10 at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin played without its third leading scorer in the last game and got just seven bench points. Their Over streak, now at eight games, is due to end. 8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska |
|||||||
01-24-22 | Towson v. Delaware UNDER 140.5 | Top | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10* Under Towson/Delaware (7:00 ET): Delaware finds itself on a five-game Over streak. They’ve shot 50% or better and scored 80+ points in four of the games. But they probably can’t keep that up. Those numbers aren’t demonstrably higher than what the Blue Hens are doing at the offensive end for the balance of the year. But it’s really hard to keep up an offensive stretch like that for a long period of time. Plus, Delaware surprisingly shoots WORSE at home (where they are tonight), making only 44.9% of their total FG attempts. Tonight, the Blue Hens run into a Towson team that can play some defense. The visiting Tigers are holding the opposition to 40.4% shooting for the year and 65.4 PPG. They did just give up 81 in a loss to UNC Wilmington over the weekend, but that game went to overtime and was tied 65-65 at the end of regulation. In their previous game, Towson had held Charleston to just 32.9% shooting. None of the Tigers’ previous nine opponents have scored 70 in regulation. Delaware can play some defense too; they are allowing just 40.3% shooting at home this year. Neither of these two teams play incredibly fast. Both are outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo. Towson is actually 320th in adjusted tempo, which means their preferred pace is VERY slow. With both teams playing their second game in three days, I look for the Under to cash in this Monday CAA matchup. This is a high O/U line for Towson, who is 6-2 Under when the total is 140 to 149.5. 10* Under Towson/Delaware |
|||||||
01-21-22 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin UNDER 139.5 | Top | 86-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin (9:00 ET): I happen to think both of these teams are slightly overrated. Do they belong in the Top 25? Yes. But not top 15 and in the case of Wisconsin, definitely not top 10. Despite losing last night, Purdue remains the favorite in the Big 10. As for who is the second best team in the conference, I’d point to another team that is in action tonight, that being Illinois. But now to the game that’s taking place tonight. Wisconsin is on two separate seven-game streaks right now. Not only have they won seven in a row, all seven wins have gone Over the total. (They’ve also covered the spread in five straight). I think the O/U streak is the one more likely to be snapped tonight. While this O/U is in line with most recent games, the Badgers probably won’t shoot as well here as they did Tuesday at Northwestern (51.9%). They scored 41 points in each half. Michigan State hasn’t played since Saturday when they saw their nine-game win streak come to an end, 64-62 at the hands of Northwestern. The Spartans lost despite holding N’western to 34.8% shooting. It was the second straight game decided by two points for Sparty. Previously, they’d beaten Minnesota 71-69. They hold teams to just 65.6 PPG and 29% from behind the three-point arc. Wisconsin doesn’t turn the ball over much (fewest in the country!), but has also been LIVING at the free throw line, which may not continue. 8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Cornell v. Princeton UNDER 161.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
8* Under Cornell/Princeton (6:00 ET): This is a high total for both teams and really you won’t find many higher across the entire College Basketball card today. The high O/U line isn’t without justification. Princeton has gone Over in each of its last seven lined games, including last night, which was a 84-69 win over Columbia. Cornell is 8-3 to the Over this season, but last night’s game, a 75-69 loss to Penn, did stay Under. I think this number is too high and will play accordingly. For those who are unfamiliar, the Ivy League schedule has its members play both Friday and Saturday night, almost every week, during conference play. With conference play just getting underway, this will be the first time this season for both Cornell and Princeton that they are playing without rest. Expect that to have an effect. First and foremost, I do not expect Princeton to continue the kind of torrid shooting we’ve seen from them most of the year. Last night, they “only” shot 46.8% in what was their first game in over two weeks. Cornell was much worse, shooting only 33.3% last night. The Big Red have now failed to score 70 points in three of their last four games. Princeton should keep them in check as they are holding visitors to 43% from the field at home this season. But I think the big key is that the Tigers’ offensive numbers have to start curtailing. Prior to last night, they’d shot 51% in six of their previous seven games. I just do not think that’s sustainable. This number, the highest for any Princeton game this season, is dropping quickly. So get your bet in quickly! 8* Under Cornell/Princeton |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 150.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State (7:00 ET): Nebraska is obviously one of the weaker teams in the Big 10, but they did just take Ohio State to overtime on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Cornhuskers, they lost that game 87-79 and now must turn around to head to East Lansing and face top 10 Michigan State. The Spartans are off to a 3-0 start in conference play after defeating Northwestern 73-67 on the road Sunday. That was their fifth straight game to go Over, but this O/U line is very high and I’m going Under. In fact, it’s looking like this could close as the highest O/U line in any game for Sparty this season. The previous high was 149 against Toledo and that pushed with MSU winning 81-68. What’s remarkable about the last game going Over the total is Sparty shot just 38.5% from the field while holding N’western to 32.3%. Tonight’s game may not feature such poor shooting, but the O/U line being so high means that’s okay. Only two MSU games this season have seen more than 150 total points scored: the opener vs Kansas (161) and a game with Oakland (168). It is incredibly unlikely that Nebraska will win this game. They are 1-24 SU their L25 road games and are just 6-45 SU their L51 games as an underdog. They’ve lost 70 of the last 73 times they’ve been a road dog of at least 12.5 points including 0 for the last 15. Because the Cornhuskers are shooting just 27.9% from three-point range, Michigan State should easily keep them in check. Assuming this one isn’t close at the end, there won’t be much fouling and the home team can just shorten the game with long possessions. Note that Nebraska’s game with Ohio State was tied at 72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Maryland v. Iowa UNDER 151.5 | Top | 75-80 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
8* Under Maryland/Iowa (9:00 ET): It’s tough competition in the Big 10 this year as you’ve got seven teams from this conference currently ranked in my Top 30. I think we can all agree who the best team is (Purdue), but after that you’ve got six teams pretty closely congested. Iowa is among that group and the Hawkeyes will take a three-game win streak into tonight’s clash with Maryland. The Hawkeyes, who do have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, topped 90 points in all three of their recent wins. But those were also all non-conference games. Maryland should prove to be a lot stingier. The Terrapins were a team that opened the year ranked in the Top 25, but I was not a real believer in what was going on in College Park. I played against them in an outright loss to George Mason and since that time the Terps are 5-3 including a 67-61 loss to Northwestern in their only conference outing thus far. This team struggles to shoot the three (30.2% for the year). Friday’s win over Brown (81-67) was their highest scoring game in awhile, but still wouldn’t have gone Over this total, nor would have any game but one since the season opener. Iowa’s two previous conference games were rough as they lost both of them. Now they played Purdue and Illinois, who I think are the top two teams in the league. There was also a dreadful 53-point effort in a blowout loss to Iowa State. The Hawkeyes have followed those three straight losses with the three-game win streak I mentioned earlier, but scoring against Maryland will be a lot tougher than it was against the likes of SE Louisiana and W Illinois. The Terps are holding teams below 40% shooting for the year. Good for Iowa then that they allow only 40.2% shooting at home. 8* Under Maryland/Iowa |
|||||||
12-15-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Ole Miss OVER 133.5 | Top | 52-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss (8:30 ET): Though the last six Ole Miss games have all stayed Under the total, I like this one to go Over. The Rebels are coming off back to back horrendous shooting efforts. Despite beating Memphis 67-63 on December 4th, the Rebels shot just 35.3% in that game. Then, in Atlanta over the weekend, it was a disastrous performance with 27.4% shooting in a 71-48 loss to Western Kentucky. But now Ole Miss is back in Oxford (where they are 5-0 and averaging 78.0 PPG). Expect the scoring to increase in this one. The Rebels better be scoring tonight. Because they are facing a Middle Tennessee team that comes in averaging 80.1 PPG. The Blue Raiders are 8-2 straight up and there’s been just one game all season where they failed to score at least 71 points. In the last game, MTSU went to Tenn-Martin and came out on top 84-75. That was actually the second win over the Skyhawks this month. They won 73-61 in Murfreesboro back on the 1st. In between, there was a loss at Murray State where the Blue Raiders surrendered 93 points (no overtime!). Neither of these teams are all that efficient on offense, but Middle Tennessee likes to “play fast” and thus there should be plenty of possessions in tonight’s contest. Again, the real key is that I expect Ole Miss to shoot MUCH better than they have in their last two games. The Over is 5-0 the last five times Middle Tennessee has been an underdog, four of those games coming on the road. A huge key to the Blue Raiders’ success is that they get to the free throw line 22 times per game, more than any other Conference USA squad. 10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss |
|||||||
12-06-21 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico UNDER 151.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico (9:00 ET): I’m going to try with the Under for a second time here with New Mexico State. Back on Friday, I was unsuccessful as the Aggies and UTEP combined for 141 points, six more than what the oddsmakers projected. Notable though is that the number of combined points was lower than the O/U line for tonight’s game against New Mexico. Now that’s understandable given these two teams went to a 101-94 final last week. But the average number of total points in NMSU games this season is still only 148.4 PPG. For more than half the game, NMSU and UTEP looked to be headed for an Under. I was feeling good when the game was 34-34 with just over 15 minutes remaining. But those final 15 minutes saw both teams more than double their scoring. The Aggies finished the game by shooting an unreal 56.6% from the field. They also hit 40% from three-point range for the second straight game. I just can’t see them matching those numbers again tonight. New Mexico has not played since the first meeting with NMSU. Aside from a 73-58 loss to Towson, virtually every Lobos’ game has been high-scoring. You can also say the same for NMSU as their last six games have all gone Over the total. But this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for either team this season. The number was 143.0 last week, so it’s a substantial increase from that. The Under is a combined 20-6 in these teams last 26 Monday games. 10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico |
|||||||
12-03-21 | New Mexico State v. UTEP UNDER 136 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP (8:00 ET): New Mexico State has gone Over in each of its last five lined games, including a wild 101-94 home loss to rival New Mexico (that did NOT go to overtime) earlier in the week. The Aggies will rematch the Lobos in Albuquerque on Monday. There’s a chance they might be looking ahead to that rematch, but regardless I expect tonight’s game in El Paso to be a lot lower-scoring than recent NMSU contests. This is primarily due to the fact the home team (UTEP) is allowing just 59.3 PPG this season. Take the Under. At home, UTEP is allowing just 53.7 PPG. They’ve played four games here so far and none of the opponents have been able to score more than 57 points. Now, none of those opponents were all that formidable (two were non-DI teams), but it’s not as if New Mexico State is some kind of juggernaut either. This will be the Aggies’ first “true” road game of the season. They’ve played three neutral site games so far and one of them (against Utah State) saw them held to just 58 points UTEP is just 236th in points per possession, so I wouldn’t count on them scoring very many points Friday night. It was just two games ago, here at home, they finished with 40 points in a loss to UC Riverside (where the Miners were 4.5-point favorites!). Throw in the fact that NMSU doesn’t exactly play at the fastest tempo (276th) and you’ve got the perfect recipe here for their Over streak to be halted. The Under is 35-17 in UTEP’s last 52 home games, including 6-2 the L8 when they were a dog. 10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP |
|||||||
12-01-21 | Southern Illinois v. Evansville OVER 121.5 | Top | 54-52 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over S Illinois/Evansville (7:00 ET): We’re gonna try with the Over here on a Southern Illinois team that has seen the Under hit in all six of its games this season. The reason being this is a new “low watermark” for an SIU O/U. The previous low was 125.0. Now that game saw them score only 47 points against Northeastern, but I have to imagine the Salukis are going to shoot better than 29.6%, which is what they did vs. Northeastern. Most of the O/U lines for SIU games this season have been north of 130.0. I see some value here. Similarly, Evansville has had just one O/U line lower than tonight. They went Over (119.5) in that game, which ended up being a 69-60 loss to Akron. The Purple Aces followed that up by defeating Eastern Illinois on Sunday, 70-54 as 6.5-point road favorites. Five of their last six games would have gone Over tonight’s total, the exception being a game vs. Vermont when they shot just 32.7%. Let the record show that Evansville is 5-1 to the Over the L6 times they’ve been a home dog, a role they are in tonight. The last time these MVC teams played was December 28th of last year and that ended up being a very high scoring game, 84-72, with Evansville (+8) getting the surprise win in Carbondale. They shot 55.3% from the floor, including 17 of 29 from three-point range. While I don’t think the Purple Aces are going to shoot the ball that well again here, look for them to make enough shots that this game does go Over the total, which will be a first for SIU this year. Evansville is shooting the ball much better at home so far. 10* Over Southern Illinois/Evansville |
|||||||
11-12-21 | Northern Illinois v. Indiana OVER 139 | Top | 49-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana (7:00 ET): Both teams started their respective 2021-22 seasons with an Under. Now, the fact Northern Illinois’ first game stayed Under was NOT the biggest takeaway, as the Huskies pulled a HUGE upset over Washington, winning 71-64 as 20-point underdogs. Indiana won much closer than expected against Eastern Michigan, 68-62 as 24.5-point favorites. The Hoosiers were up by 20 in the second half, but quickly let that lead slip away and found themselves ahead by just one point with 2:46 to go. I know there are some concerns about “offensive consistency” under new HC Mike Woodson, but you’ve got to expect IU will shoot better from three-point range tonight compared to the 4 of 24 effort we saw in the opener. It’s the defense that I think is likely to regress on Friday. The Hoosiers held Eastern Michigan to a 31.3 FG% and without a field goal for the first 7 ½ minutes of the game. Tonight’s MAC opponent shot a blistering 52.3% from behind the arc in its upset win in Seattle. Now, will they match that number tonight in Bloomington? Probably not. But they also aren’t going to watch their opponent go 3 for 18 from behind the arc like Washington did. This is a lower O/U than either team faced in its respective opener. Indiana had previously been 8-1 to the Over against MAC teams. They’ve gone Under their last five games overall, dating back to the end of last season. That streak ends here. 10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana |
|||||||
11-09-21 | Kentucky v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
8* Under Kentucky/Duke (9:30 ET): Kentucky and Duke are each off disappointing seasons. The Wildcats were just plain bad in 2020-21, going 9-16 straight up, while the Blue Devils weren’t much better at 13-11. Neither made the NCAA Tournament. Yet the pollsters didn’t hesitate putting both of them in the preseason top 10. That’s a little high from where I sit, but not all that egregious. I’m taking the Under on Opening Night as these two College Basketball “bluebloods” open the season in NYC as part of the State Farm Champions Classic. When I think Duke-Kentucky, I always think back to the all-time great game in 1991 where Christian Laettner hit his famous buzzer beater to send the Blue Devils to the Final Four. I’m a little surprised that the programs have only met three times since 2012. All were early season matchups like this one. The most recent came in 2018 with Duke winning in blowout fashion, 118-84. Needless to say, you shouldn’t expect anywhere close to that many points scored here tonight. Both squads have a lot of new faces. For Kentucky, that’s nothing new. Although this time Coach Cal has leaned heavily on the transfer portal. Coach K recruits just as well (if not better) than Coach Cal and four starters on this team will be freshmen. With all the new faces, I can’t see this being a high-scoring game. Kentucky averaged just 66.6 PPG vs. non-conf teams last year while giving up only 64.9. Duke isn’t going to score 70 points in this game. 8* Under Kentucky/Duke |
|||||||
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga (9:20 ET): Baylor and Gonzaga were widely considered the two best teams in College Basketball all season long. So I’m glad we’ve got them matched up in Monday’s National Title Game. Unbeaten Gonzaga is the one who very nearly failed to “hold up their end of the bargain” as they needed overtime to defeat 11-seed UCLA in a game for the ages. Baylor had a much easier time Saturday as they blew out Houston 78-59, a game I’d rather not hear about again. Conventional wisdom seems to be that Baylor will be willing to play at Gonzaga’s preferred tempo. The Zags are 7th in the country in adjusted tempo and they lead the country in scoring at 91.6 PPG. However, they haven’t been able to hit that number in regulation in any of the L4 games. They shot 59.6% against Creighton and 58.7% against UCLA, percentages they won’t be able to match here against a longer and more athletic opponent. Baylor has held four of its five Tournament opponents to 63 points or less. That’s a very unrealistic number for this matchup, but they did hold Arkansas (who also likes to play fast) to 72 in the Elite Eight. This is a high total, even for Gonzaga, and certainly for a National Title Game. It should also be noted that Gonzaga held its first four Tournament opponents to 71 points or less. They are actually quite underrated defensively (8th in the country in efficiency). Baylor won’t shoot 52.7% from the field in this game like they did against Houston. This game may not stay Under by a lot, but I don’t see both teams scoring 80+ and that is likely what would be needed for an Over. 10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga |
|||||||
04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Houston/Baylor (5:14 ET): We had the Over in Baylor’s 81-72 win over Arkansas in the Elite 8. That play cashed as it ended up being - rather easily - the Bears’ highest scoring game of the Tournament. That shouldn’t be a surprise, not because I had the Over, but rather due to the pace Arkansas plays at. The Razorbacks were a top 20 team nationally in adjusted tempo, a far cry from Baylor’s previous two opponents. Like the dispatched Wisconsin and Villanova, Houston plays at one of the slowest adjusted tempos in the country. Thus I’m pivoting to the Under for this Final Four matchup. It’s not just Houston’s tempo that has me on the Under here. The Cougars are #2 in the country in scoring defense (57.6 PPG allowed) and #1 in opposing FG% (37.3). The fact they’ve advanced despite not scoring more than 67 points in any of the L3 games should tell you all you need to know about their defense. In four Tournament games, the Cougars have allowed an average of only 55.75 PPG. The most points they’ve given up in any of the four games is 61. The Under is 3-0 the L3 games. Baylor is 7-2 Over its L9 games, however they allowed just 55, 63 and 51 points in the three games prior to facing Arkansas. They scored 46 points in the 1H of the Arkansas game, which is a lot, and also shot 53.3% for the game from three-point range. Don’t see them matching those kinds of numbers on Saturday, even if they are #1 in the country from three-point range. Houston is allowing just 28.3% shooting from behind the arc this season. Baylor can take solace in the fact Houston shot just 32.3% against Oregon State. Three of the Bears’ four Tourney opponents have shot worse than 28% from distance. 8* Under Houston/Baylor |
|||||||
03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 136 | Top | 51-49 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under UCLA/Michigan (9:57 ET): UCLA is now the lone double-digit seed (they are an 11) in the Tournament. They’ve had to win FOUR games just to get here as they were in the “First Four.” The Bruins are the first “First Four” team to reach the Elite 8 since the famous 2011 VCU team that made it all the way to the Final Four for Shaka Smart. Give them their due, but two of UCLA’s wins have come in overtime, one of those the “First Four” game (vs. Michigan State) where they trailed most of the way. They got a weak 6-seed (BYU) and then a 14-seed (Abilene Christian) in the Round of 32. However, there was nothing “phony” at all about the way Mick Cronin’s team defeated 2-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16. Yes, the game went to OT, but the Bruins did lead most of the way. I think what is interesting is the fact the game would have stayed Under if not for OT. There were only 130 total points scored in regulation before a very high scoring extra five minutes. None of UCLA’s last three games have eclipsed the 135-point mark in regulation. Michigan, a top 10 team nationally in defensive efficiency, holds teams to 65.6 PPG on 39.3% shooting for the season. After struggling some against LSU in the Round of 32, Michigan looked very impressive in a blowout win (76-58) over Florida State in the Sweet 16. They are 8-1 Under this season following a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Under has also gone 6-1 in their games with a total of 130 to 139.5 and is 8-2 the L10 times they’ve played with one or zero days’ rest. With UCLA playing at a bottom 20 pace (# of possessions per game) in the country, I see this ending up being a relatively low-scoring game. The Wolverines are without their second leading scorer and made only three 3-pointers vs. FSU. 10* Under UCLA/Michigan |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor OVER 147.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Arkansas/Baylor (9:57 ET): Both of these teams average more than 80 points per game and are off poor shooting efforts from three-point range. For Baylor, that’s quite atypical. The Bears lead the country in making 40.8% of their attempts from behind the arc. They were just 3 of 19 in the 62-51 win over Villanova. That was their lowest scoring game of the year (by total points) and the second fewest points scored by them in any game. When they scored a season-low 58 at Kansas on 2/27, they came back the next game and scored 94. It’s a similar deal with Arkansas, who averages 81.7 PPG but is off a game where they were just 1 of 9 from three-point range. The 72-70 win over Oral Roberts marked the fourth time in five games the Razorbacks were held below their season average in points per game. So they are due for a breakout effort at the offensive end of the floor. This is a pretty low total by Arkansas’ standards and Baylor is 6-2 Over its L8 games. A team that leads the country in three-point shooting coming off a game where they shot 3 of 19 is a classic bounce back opportunity. Further improving the likelihood of Baylor scoring plenty of points tonight is the fact Arkansas was lucky to hold Oral Roberts to 8 of 31 shooting from 3-point range on Saturday. For the season, the Razorbacks have let their opponents hit 39.1% from behind the arc when away from Fayetteville. Also of note is the fact Arkansas plays at a MUCH faster tempo (17th) than either of Baylor’s previous two opponents (329 and 336). Baylor held Villanova to 3 of 17 shooting from 3-point range, a percentage the Razorbacks should easily eclipse. 8* Over Arkansas/Baylor |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Oregon/USC (9:45 ET): The last time an Oregon game went Under was February 22nd. The opponent was USC. The Ducks again run into their Pac 12 rival here in the Sweet 16 after going Over in eight consecutive contests. They caught a huge break last weekend as their 1st round opponent (VCU) had to withdraw due to COVID-19 protocols. Taking full advantage of the “bye,” the Ducks blitzed Iowa 95-80 in a dominant second round victory. But as we’ve seen before, scoring on USC won’t be as easy. The Trojans put the clamps down defensively on both Drake and Kansas last weekend. They held them both to ridiculously low shooting percentages (29.4 and 29.0 respectively) and allowed only 107 points total. Dominating efforts at the defensive end are something we’ve seen throughout the year from Andy Enfield’s team. USC opponents have shot just 38.7% for the season and Oregon was held 40.4% overall despite going 7 of 17 from three-point range. The Ducks scored only 22 first half points in that game. Now Oregon has lost only once since that time and they’ve shot better than 55% from the field in four of their last five games, which is somewhat preposterous. Given USC’s defensive resume, I’m expecting the Ducks to “cool off” considerably on Sunday night. Nor do I expect USC to match its ridiculously hot shooting from the last game as they made an incredible 57.1% against Kansas. These teams know each other well and that familiarity should lead to a relatively low-scoring contest. Oregon’s Over streak is “due” to end and USC is 8-3 Under following a win by 20+ points. 8* Under Oregon/USC |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 157.5 | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -114 | 72 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga (2:15 ET): Through their first two games of the Tournament, I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from thinking (like everybody else) that Gonzaga is the “team to beat.” They annihilated Norfolk State in Round 1, 98-55 as a 33-point favorite, then beat Oklahoma 87-71 and covered the 14-point spread there. That win over Oklahoma extends the Zags’ perfect SU record on the season to 28-0 and the last 25 victories have all been by double digits. They are #1 in the country in scoring at 92.1 PPG and what’s scary is that they still scored 87 on OU despite shooting below 50% (49.1) for the first time in nearly two months. Creighton had a close call in Round 1 (beat UCSB 63-62) before easily ousting Ohio in Round 2 (72-58). I saw Clark Kellogg on CBS say that the Bluejays were “due” to break out of their scoring slump and I concurred, a big reason why I took them against Ohio. Ironically, it was their defense that led the way in that win as the Bobcats shot just 31.8% overall and couldn’t make any outside shots. While Creighton is allowing just 60 PPG in the Tourney thus far, that’s not really indicative of “who they are” and I do expect them to struggle defensively in this matchup. Assuming Gonzaga can come close to its season average of 92.1 PPG, we would only need around 70 points from Creighton to send this one Over the total. Considering the Bluejays come in averaging 76.3 PPG on the year, I think they can do it. Kellogg was right; this is a team that typically shoots better than what we’ve seen so far in the Tourney. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as Gonzaga is 39-16 Over its L55 games. 10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Colorado/Florida State (7:45 ET): So we’ve got two teams coming off very efficient wins where they were red-hot from the field. Colorado and Florida State very much won in “different ways,” but I don’t think there’s any denying that neither will be able to match the respective shooting we saw in those first round victories. Colorado made 16 three-pointers as they absolutely annihilated Georgetown 96-73. Florida State didn’t make a single three (0 for 9) in its 64-54 win over UNC Greensboro, but was 64% from inside the arc. Colorado was up 24 at halftime vs. Georgetown and saw that lead balloon to 32 in the second half. They shot 60.7% overall from the field, including a ridiculous 16 of 25 from 3-point range. No way they are matching those kinds of numbers here as FSU opponents are shooting less than 40% from the field for the season. The Buffaloes are 6-2 Under this season following a game where they scored 80+ and they are also 21-8 Under the L29 games with just one day of rest. They are 17-5 Under L22 as underdogs. Florida State is still 16-7 Over in all games this season, even though the first round win stayed Under. But here they are up against a team that gives up just 63.6 PPG and ranks top 25 in the country in defensive efficiency. I’m sure the Seminoles will make a three (or several!) tonight, but they won’t be matching that shooting from 2-point range they had on Saturday. 8* Under Colorado/Florida State |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon UNDER 139.5 | Top | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Under Oregon State/Oregon (8:30 ET): Oregon State’s impressive ATS run continued yesterday as they knocked out UCLA 83-79 in Pac 12 quarterfinal action. It was the Beavers’ 14th cover in the last 17 games. Here they’ll face one of the teams they failed to cover against, top-seed Oregon, who beat them 80-67 in the regular season finale at Corvallis. Note that OSU did take the season’s first meeting, 75-64 in Eugene, but that came at a time when the Ducks were playing very short-handed. Oregon had no problems yesterday as they blew out Arizona State 91-73 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Sun Devils were playing their second game in as many as days (I won w/ them on Weds). Oregon was insanely hot from the field in the second half, scoring 56 points while not missing consecutive shots for almost a 15-minute stretch! The Ducks wound up shooting 59% for the game, including 10 of 18 from three-point range, the type of clip that will be awfully hard to duplicate here against their rivals. That said, the Ducks did shoot 57.4% overall and 65.2% in the regular season finale. You’ve got to think Oregon’s shooting HAS to cool down though as they are above 58% the L3 games and the Over is 6-0 L6 games. Couple that with the fact Oregon State’s final score yday was a byproduct of OT and I think you’ve got a great situation to play the Under here. The Beavers were down 16 in the 2H against UCLA before storming back with a shocking rally. Both teams are now playing w/o rest, so that’s a perfect time for them to “cool off” from the field. OSU was only averaging 63.4 PPG away from home this season going into yesterday. 8* Under Oregon State/Oregon |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Kansas State v. Baylor OVER 137 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
8* Over Kansas State/Baylor (2:30 ET): Last night couldn’t have gone better for Kansas State as they routed TCU 71-50 in 1st round Big 12 Tournament action. The Wildcats were 3.5-point underdogs going into that contest, so the margin of victory was definitely surprising. They used two big second half runs - 16-0 and 21-2 - to break the game open. What shouldn’t have been all that surprising is that the game stayed Under. It was the fifth time in their last six games that KSU held its opponent under 60 points and seventh straight Under for them. But the task is about to get a lot more difficult. Considering how many points Baylor scored against Kansas State in the two regular season matchups, the odds of the Wildcats’ Under streak continuing here seem slim. Both times Baylor scored 100+ as they won those games by an average of 39.5 PPG. The Bears are the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament, having lost only one game all year and that was to Kansas in the second game back from a long COVID-19 layoff. In the three games since, the Bears have averaged 87.7 PPG and topped 80 in every contest. Baylor is 8-1 Over its last 9 games overall and the Over is also 8-1 in the last nine head to head meetings between these two teams. Both of this year’s regular season games obviously flew Over and while the Bears may not score 100 again today, we probably won’t need them to. They average 85.3 PPG for the year, so all we’re looking at from Kansas State is about 60, which seems rather doable. 8* Over Kansas State/Baylor |
|||||||
03-10-21 | San Jose State v. Wyoming OVER 150.5 | Top | 80-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
8* Over San Jose State/Wyoming (2:00 ET): This is pretty much the opposite of my three successful Under wagers the past two days. We’ve got two BAD defensive teams, one of which (San Jose State) stayed Under in each of its final six regular season contests. But let’s not sugarcoat things. The Spartans are an absolutely awful basketball team. They are giving up 82.2 PPG away from home for the season. Not to be outdone, Wyoming allows 76.7 PPG away from home. Expect this 1st round tournament game in the Mountain West to go Over the total. San Jose State somehow did not finish last in the MWC this year. They did go 3-13 SU in conference play, but both Air Force and New Mexico each found ways to be worse. In my opinion (and according to my power ratings), San Jose State was the worst team in the MWC this season. Regardless, all you need to know is that the bottom of the MWC is really bad. There is a significant gap between those bottom three teams and everyone else, so Wyoming has every right to be a sizable favorite here. Still, I’d never lay double digits with the Cowboys due to the fact they are not good defensively. Opponents shot better than 50% against them for the SEASON in conference play! Wyoming did close the regular season on a 4-0 ATS run, but two of those wins were against New Mexico. Seeing as the Cowboys average 75.6 PPG for the year, they should have no issue scoring today and even better is the fact they average 83.1 PPG when favored. These teams did not play in the regular season, but I think SJSU is capable of delivering one of its highest scoring games to date. Due to three cancellations, they haven’t played since February 21st. They’ll have to score as they rank 338th nationally in PPG allowed. Wyoming shot 55.1% on Saturday in its win over UNLV. 8* Over San Jose St/Wyoming |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Boston College v. Duke UNDER 153.5 | Top | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Boston College/Duke (4:30 ET): So the ACC Tournament gets underway on Tuesday and in a rare sight we’ve got Duke playing in the Opening Round. This was most definitely a “down year” in Durham as the Blue Devils went just 11-11 SU and ended their regular season on a three-game losing streak. They most definitely need to win this tourney, or at least get to the final, to have any chance of making the “Big Dance” this weekend. One would think they would prevail today, but Boston College did upset Notre Dame not that long ago. Because of the “must-win” belief and the fact Duke is still one of the most “public” sides in all of College Hoops, the line is a little bit inflated here. Still, I really have zero interest in endorsing a BC side that has won just two games since X-Mas. Some of the losses have been close, like Friday’s 80-76 loss at Miami. But Miami is depleted and then you have losses like the one the Eagles were handed last Wednesday by Florida State (94-63). This is a matchup where I’m focused on the total. Duke has gone Over in six straight. But before UNC routed them on Saturday, the previous two losses both came in OT. They allowed just 64 and 65 points in regulation in those two contests. In many ways, handicapping this matchup reminds me of yday’s two successful Under wagers. You’ve got a team on a long Over run, but some of that is due to multiple OT games. When these teams met in the regular season, the score ended up 83-82 (Duke won), but BC shot the ball extremely well (56% overall including 9 of 16 from three), a performance they won’t be repeating today. The Eagles have lost two of their top three scorers since that loss to Duke. This will likely end up closing as the highest O/U line for either team all season. Duke is 20-8 Under in neutral site games when the total is 150 to 154.5. 8* Under Boston College/Duke |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Oakland UNDER 148.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland (9:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime (one of which, Cleveland State-IPFW, went to TRIPLE OT!) and the one that did end in regulation was decided by a single point. After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. Northern Kentucky was the lone Horizon League team to win its quarter final game in regulation. It did so by beating Detroit 70-69 as a 1.5-point dog. The Norse seem to be peaking at the right time as that win was their 9th in the last 11 games and they are 4-0 ATS L4. It was impressive that they held Detroit to only 69 points considering the Titans shot 51% from the field, including 13 of 31 from behind the arc. The game stayed Under. Oakland’s 87-83 OT win over Youngstown State in the quarterfinals obviously went Over. That’s now eight straight Overs for the Golden Grizzlies, who are 21-6 Over on the year. But this is not a great shooting team (40.4 FG% away from home). These teams did NOT meet in the regular season and while both meetings LY did go Over those O/U lines were significantly lower than the one we’ve got here. I think the value is on the Under tonight. 10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State UNDER 141 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State (6:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime with one (Cleveland State-IPFW) going to TRIPLE OT. After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. The first semi features two of the most fortunate teams in all of America, Cleveland State and Milwaukee. Cleveland State is the regular season champion of the Horizon League, but perhaps THE luckiest team in the country. Their luck rating is #1 at KenPom. The Vikings have six wins by four points or less this season. During a 17-4 SU, very few of their wins HAVEN’T been close. In that same vein, Milwaukee is now 3-0 SU in OT games this season. One of those OT wins was against Cleveland State on 1/23, a game they trailed by 13 with 1:59 remaining. The quarterfinal win against #2 seed Wright State was perhaps even more improbable seeing as the Panthers were down 24 with 6:26 left. Obviously, both teams’ quarterfinal games ended up high-scoring due to overtime. Milwaukee has now seen its last nine games all go Over and Cleveland State is 7-2-1 Under its L10. But I think the total for tonight is too high, especially when you compare it to the O/U lines from the two regular season matchups (131.5, 135). The first game ended up 64-53 in CSU’s favor. Milwaukee shot very poorly in both games and hasn’t been above 50% in any game since early January. 8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State |
|||||||
03-01-21 | Massachusetts v. St. Louis OVER 144.5 | Top | 57-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Over UMass/Saint Louis (6:00 ET): It’s been a really challenging regular season for both of these teams, even by 2020-21 standards. For UMass, the season did not even get underway until December 11th and they’ve only gotten 12 games in. Still, the Minutemen are set to finish with a winning record for the first time in six years. Saint Louis was once considered a Top 25 team, but a LONG pause in its season (played only one game in January) really seems to have set them back. No longer are the Billikens a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and they need a strong finish, not just here, but in the A-10 Tourney as well. Something else these teams have in common is lots of Unders. Saint Louis has gone Under in its last seven games while UMass is 5-0 Under its last five. The Minutemen are off a 75-69 loss at Richmond where they never led and shot just 25.9% from three-point range. It was only their second loss in the last seven games though. Saint Louis won on Friday, ironically against Richmond, 72-67 as they not only shot exceptionally well (54.5% from 3-pt range), but also played great defense (held Richmond to 24 first half points). Despite the recent rash of Unders from both teams, I see this one sneaking Over the total. UMass has five double digit scorers and is averaging 76.8 points per game. Saint Louis averages 78.9 PPG at home. The Billikens may not shoot the ball as well here as they did in their last game, but the Minutemen should see improved shooting from their performance against Richmond. Saint Louis is also a beast on the boards and should get plenty of second chance opportunities tonight. The Over is 6-0 in UMass’ last six Monday games. 10* Over UMass/Saint Louis |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina UNDER 152.5 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Florida State/North Carolina (4:00 ET): Florida State’s reputation precedes itself here as the total is very high for this matchup with North Carolina. That’s due in large part to the Seminoles’ incredible run of Overs, which now stands at 11 straight games, a streak which dates all the way back to late December. Not to be outdone, UNC has been a “boon” for Over bettors as well. The Over is 3-0 their L3 and 8-3 their L11. When these teams met last month in Tallahassee, the ‘Noles won 82-75. However, it is notable that the O/U line in that first meeting was “only” 143.5. That’s a double digit difference compared to today’s O/U line. Obviously, an increase had to be expected. But I think the oddsmakers have gone a bit “overboard” on this one, possibly trying to “suck the public in.” This will be the highest O/U line for any FSU game this season while North Carolina has had only one higher and that was back in early December vs. Iowa, one of the highest scoring teams in the country that also isn’t great defensively. Florida State’s scoring average predictably dips on the road, so I don’t see them matching some of their recent point totals. They’ve only played five road games all season! Two of them marked their lowest scoring games of the year, a 77-67 loss at Clemson and a 76-65 loss at Georgia Tech. North Carolina just got torched by Marquette, but that was after holding its three previous opponents all to 62 points or less. The Tar Heels are 12-5 Under following a game where they allowed 80+ points. 10* Under Florida State/North Carolina |
|||||||
02-21-21 | Valparaiso v. Southern Illinois OVER 130.5 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over Valparaiso/So Illinois (5:00 ET): Valpo came through for me in a big way earlier in the week, easily covering a massive 20.5-point spread against a very good Loyola Chicago team. The ATS result was never in doubt as the Crusaders allowed just 54 points in the game and held the Ramblers to 38.5% shooting. They actually led outright at the half. Still though, this is a team that hasn’t had much reason to celebrate recently as they’ve lost six of their last eight games to fall way off the pace in the Missouri Valley. Southern Illinois isn’t doing any better than Valpo this season. While the Salukis did manage to go 6-0 against the non-conference schedule, they didn’t really have any quality wins (Butler?) and are just 4-10 SU in conference play. They’ve failed to score even 60 points in any of the last four games, one of which they did manage to win (against last place Illinois State). It was another ugly shooting night earlier this week when SIU lost here in Carbondale to Missouri State by a score of 68-53. Despite all the low point totals posted by these two teams recently, I’m “holding my nose” and taking the Over in this one. When the total is 133 points or lower, Southern Illinois is 5-1 Over this season. The 53 points scored on Wednesday matched a season-low, set in the first game vs. Missouri State. For the year, the Salukis are averaging 68.5 PPG at home. The last time Valparaiso was held to 52 points and faced a different opponent the next time out, they went for 70 and that too was on the road (at N Iowa). 10* Over Valparaiso/Southern Illinois |
|||||||
02-19-21 | Oakland v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 153.5 | Top | 85-81 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee (6:00 ET): You would be correct for saying it feels like “we’ve been here before” with Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies started their season with a rash of Overs before we took them (and cashed) Under in a game against Detroit on December 26th. That game stayed Under despite going to OT. Oakland has largely remained an “Over team” this season and is now on its longest Over streak (5 straight games) since I played that Under two months ago. It’s time to go Under again on Friday. Milwaukee will also be entering this game on a 5-game Over streak. The last four have all been losses. The Panthers had the tough assignment of facing Wright State on the road last weekend and gave up 92 points in both games. The final scores were nearly identical as Milwaukee scored 81 and 82 in the two games. Two things killed the Panthers in the second game with Wright State. They sent the Raiders to the FT line 26 times (WSU went 24-26) and allowed them to hit 10 of 19 3PA. Truthfully, things were not much better in either department in the first game of the weekend. But Milwaukee isn’t facing Wright State tonight, they’re facing Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies don’t shoot the ball very well (41.3% overall) despite going Over all the time. The issue (for both teams) all year has been poor defense. But this looks like it will certainly close as the highest O/U line all year for Milwaukee and it’ll be right up there with the highest for Oakland, who is only 4-4 Over when the number is 150.0 or higher. 8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee |
|||||||
02-17-21 | DePaul v. Seton Hall OVER 138.5 | Top | 52-60 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall (8:30 ET): DePaul has gone Under in 10 straight games. The most recent was their lowest scoring yet, a 57-47 home loss to Providence. The Blue Demons are really struggling to shoot the ball right now as they have a field goal percentage well below 40% the L4 games. That number has GOT to improve. Tonight they are at Seton Hall, a team they scored 68 against earlier in the season while shooting 41.7%. That game was actually early in DePaul’s Under streak, but it’s certainly worth noting that the total for the rematch is 10 points lower. Meanwhile, Seton Hall will be going for a fourth straight win tonight. They beat Marquette 57-51 here at home on Sunday, So both teams are coming off REALLY low-scoring games. Seton Hall shot just 37% vs. Marquette, but was at 52% when they beat DePaul last month. The Pirates have an excellent shot at winning out, which would greatly improve their NCAA Tournament chances, presuming they don’t “flame out” in the Big East Tourney. I know there’s not much recent evidence to support it, but I do see this game going Over the total. DePaul could be missing two of its top scorers, but this is a REALLY low total and Seton Hall scored 80 points two games ago. DePaul gives up 76.5 PPG on the road, which is key, and if Seton Hall can get to 80 tonight (very doable), then we’re in good shape. The first meeting would have gone Over this total. A 10-point shift in the O/U line is A LOT. 8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Western Carolina v. Furman OVER 147.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
9* Over Western Carolina/Furman (2:00 ET): Both of these sides have gone Under in six straight games. Those respective six-game streaks include one head to head matchup, which Furman won 75-69 back on January 30th. Since then, the Paladins have actually dropped two of three and Wednesday saw them score a season-low 58 points in a loss to UNC Greensboro where they shot just 31.6% from the field. Look for them to rediscover the “shooting touch” though as today they are back at home where they are averaging 86.1 PPG! Western Carolina is at the bottom of the SoCon standings, but ironically the Catamounts are off a win here. They defeated VMI 74-72 in what was the team’s best single-game defensive effort in awhile. Still though, they’ve allowed 70 or more points in 15 of the last 16 games and are giving up 77.7 PPG for the season. On the road, that number jumps to 81.8 PPG. On the bright side, Western Carolina is averaging MORE points per game on the road (77.2) than at home. In the first meeting, the total closed at 154. It’s several points lower here, opening up some real value. This looks like it will end up as the lowest O/U line for a Western Carolina game in some time, perhaps as far back as December 30th. Their games are averaging 153.9 PPG this season while Furman games average 148.3. The Paladins shoot a blistering 52.3% from the field at home as well. I fully expect them to score 80+ today and if that happens, it should make for an easy Over. 9* Over Western Carolina/Furman |
|||||||
02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 139.5 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech (9:00 ET): When these teams met on January 25th, they combined for 175 total points in an 88-87 WVU win. When I say “that’s a little bit shocking,” I’m definitely not referring to the fact the Mountaineers were able to pull out a win in Morgantown. No, it was shocking that they combined for that many points. Texas Tech is always considered one of the premier defensive teams in the entire country and this season has been no different as they are allowing just 61.7 points per game. Here at home, that number drops down to 56.5. So I expect this sequel to feature a lot less scoring than the “original.” In that first meeting, WVU shot a blistering 57.7% overall from the field, including 12 of 19 on three-pointers. Again, that just doesn’t happen when you’re facing Texas Tech. It’s not like WVU is a great shooting team. They make only 42.9% for the year. The 12 made threes were way more than their season average of 7.3 per game. With the change in home court advantage, expect different results this time as TT is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.9% from behind the arc in Lubbock. West Virginia had another hot shooting game Saturday as they beat Kansas 91-79. That was their fourth straight game to go Over the total, a streak which began with the win over Texas Tech. But I remain adamant that the Mountaineers were cool off here. The Red Raiders also shot 50% from three-point range in their last game, but that was against a lousy Kansas State squad. They’ve had a couple sub-36.0% shooting efforts recently. It takes some “chutzpah” to expect 40 less points this time around, but I’ll do it. 8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss OVER 124 | Top | 50-61 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss (3:30 ET): I think we’ve hit a tipping point here where these teams are set to go Over the total. To be clear, the Aggies and Rebels have combined to go 21-4 Under this season while consistently producing low-scoring games. But this is the lowest O/U line to date (for either side) as oddsmakers were forced to react. It will be just the second game for A&M with a total lower than 130 points and the first for Ole Miss. Look for this one to “sneak Over” a very low total. While A&M comes into this game Saturday on a 9-game Under streak, several of those would have actually gone Over this O/U line. Four to be exact and it’s worth noting that only one of them has seen fewer than 122 total points scored, so that’s close. After losing 68-52 to Missouri last Saturday, the Aggies had their game vs. Vanderbilt postponed Tuesday. So they may not be as sharp defensively here. Ole Miss held rival Miss State to just 46 points Tuesday, but before that they’d allowed over 70 in three consecutive contests. Their own scoring has dipped in SEC play, however, they are still averaging 71.2 PPG on the year and getting to that number today would almost ensure this game going Over. As I said earlier, this is the lowest O/U line either team has seen this season and in the case of the Rebels, only the last one was close. 9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss |
|||||||
01-14-21 | California v. Colorado UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-89 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under California/Colorado (2:00 ET): Cal has gone Over in seven straight games, but this afternoon they are running into an opponent that I feel is among the most underrated teams in the country, that being Colorado. The Buffs scored for us on Monday, beating Utah 65-58 as a 2.5-pt favorite, though they did have to rally back from a 10-point halftime deficit to do so. This is a team that plays excellent defense, especially at home where they are allowing just 55.3 points per game thus far. You’ll want to be on the Under here. California won its first Pac 12 game of the season Saturday by defeating struggling Washington 84-78. That was the Bears’ highest scoring effort since an 87-56 blowout of CS Northridge back on 12/19. Between those two 80+ point games, Cal was held to 70 or less four straight times. I should also bring up the fact that playing on the road should lead to an obvious decrease in offensive production. The Bears have played five “true” road games thus far and the most they’ve scored in any of them was 69. Four times they were held to 64 or less. Colorado is 18th in the country in defensive efficiency, so they’ve certainly “got the goods” to slow down Cal today. I really can’t believe this team isn’t ranked as my power ratings comfortably have them in the Top 20. It appears as if they are getting Cal at the perfect time as two of the Bears’ key players - Matt Bradley and Kuany Kuany - have been battling injuries and both missed the last game. Bradley is the team’s leading scorer, so if he misses a third straight game, it would be a huge loss. This game was supposed to be played last night, but got bumped back due to COVID protocols. The early afternoon start time may lead to a “sleepy start” for both teams. 8* Under California/Colorado |
|||||||
01-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State OVER 130.5 | Top | 56-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Texas A&M/Mississippi State (9:00 ET): Texas A&M really struggles offensively and as a result their last seven games have ALL stayed Under the total. To end a streak such as that, sometimes all it takes is the “right opponent.” In this instance, that’s what we’ve got with Mississippi State, a team that has put up 80+ points in six of its last eight games. The Bulldogs have scored no less than 73 in any of those eight games, so I see them “helping” A&M to its first Over in more than a month. As you might have guessed, Over has been the way to go with Miss State as that’s how six of their last nine games have ended up and for some it might be seven of nine. (The 78-63 win over Missouri last week fell very close to the number). On Saturday, the Bulldogs were involved in quite the high-scoring affair as they beat Vanderbilt 84-81. They shot over 60% (31 of 51) in that win and completely overwhelmed the Commodores in the paint, outscoring them there 42-18. What’s truly remarkable about the Bulldogs putting up 84 points in that game is the fact they made only four three-pointers. They attempted only seven! But the negative is that they did allow Vandy to make 15 shots from behind the arc. As good as they’ve been offensively, MSU has allowed 73+ points in three of its last four contests. Saturday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 80! So A&M has a shot to get its offense going here. Their three point shooting, below 30% for the season, is certainly due to get better. Of course that won’t matter if the Aggies play defense like they did vs. Tennessee, who they allowed to shoot 58.7% from the floor. This number is way too low for a game involving a team like Miss St. 10* Over Texas A&M/Miss State |
|||||||
01-07-21 | Montana State v. Northern Colorado OVER 135.5 | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado (8:30 ET): Here’s an “off the radar” game that quickly caught my attention. Even though Northern Colorado has gone Under in each of its last five games, I think the total is too low here. This will be the first of two meetings with Montana State over the next three days and tonight is also Montana State’s Big Sky opener. Take the Over. So far, Montana State has been real “feast or famine” on the offensive end of the floor. They have three games with more than 90 points scored and two with under 60 points scored. While two of the three strong efforts came at home against non-DI teams, the Bobcats did manage to score 91 in a season-opening win at UNLV. One area I definitely see improving is the Bobcats’ 43.2% shooting from INSIDE the 3-point line. That number is just awful and HAS to improve. They do shoot pretty well from three-point range (37.5%) so I see no reason why they can’t improve the shooting when closer to the basket. Northern Colorado has failed to reach 70 points in any of its last five games, a stretch which has seen them shoot very poorly as well. Again, you’ve got to expect improvement in that department. The Over is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times Montana State has been an underdog and a perfect 6-0 the L6 times they’ve been off a SU win. They scored 96 points in their previous game, a win over Montana Western on New Year’s Day. 10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado |
|||||||
01-04-21 | Wyoming v. Fresno State UNDER 143.5 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State (9:00 ET): Honestly, I sort of think the wrong team may be favored here. Wyoming just won here, 78-74, on Saturday and is now 7-1 on the season. Their only loss came by two points to Texas Southern in the second game of the season. But beating the same opponent on the road twice in three days is a pretty tall order and the Cowboys were pretty lucky to win here the other night. So I’m looking at the Under, something that hasn’t cashed a lot in Wyoming games this season, but will tonight. That lone Wyoming loss saw them blow a 19-point halftime lead in Laramie, so this is a team that probably “should” still be undefeated. The Over is 6-1 their last seven games, but they have not shot the ball all that well nor have they defended that poorly. Their tempo isn’t that fast. They have shot 44% from three-point range in three “true” road games though and that’s a number that’s due to come down. They were 12 of 30 from behind the arc Saturday and also 22 of 26 from the free throw line. Don’t look for them to match those kinds of numbers tonight though. It was just a 33-31 game at halftime when these teams played Saturday before the scoring really picked up in the second half. Fresno State actually shot much better overall than Wyoming, but was undone by a lack of three-point shooting (just 5 of 16) and by going just 15 of 22 from the FT line. There were a LOT of free throws made in the final six minutes Saturday, taking a game which looked like a sure Under (game was 58-57 with 6:43 left) to an Over. FSU is 7-3 Under when playing with revenge for a home loss. 8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State |
|||||||
12-29-20 | Ole Miss v. Alabama OVER 146 | Top | 64-82 | Push | 0 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama (9:00 ET): All six Ole Miss games have stayed Under this year, which is quite the streak to start a season. The Rebels are holding the opposition to just 52.3 PPG, but look at who they’ve played: Jackson State, UNC Wilmington, Central Arkansas, Middle Tenn, Tenn-Martin to name a few. Tonight they head to Tuscaloosa to face an Alabama team that’s averaging almost 80 PPG. Look for this to be the first time Ole Miss goes Over the total this season. The Crimson Tide’s scoring average would be even better if not for a “clunker” against Clemson on December 12th where they finished with just 56 points. They’ve gone over 80 in all five wins and they are slight favorites here. They haven’t played since last Tuesday, which was an 85-69 win over East Tenn State. While that was a game they were expected to win by DD, they’ve also put up 80+ against the likes of Furman (who is very good), UNLV and Providence. On the flip side, the Tide have given up 71+ points five times already. Ole Miss scored a season-high 90 points in their most recent game, which was last Tuesday vs. Tenn Martin. Still the game didn’t go Over as they allowed just 43 points against a very bad team. Something that sticks out to me is that neither of these SEC teams have shot the ball very well from three-point range thus far. Ole Miss is down at 28.8% while Bama is at 30.2%. Look for that to change tonight. In terms of adjusted tempo, Alabama is in the top 30 nationally. They are 23-13 Over in all home games the L3 seasons. 10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Oakland v. Detroit UNDER 154.5 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Oakland/Detroit (4:00 ET): Both of these Horizon League squads are pretty bad defensively, but they should get a much welcome “reprieve” by facing each other. I say that because - as bad as both Oakland and Detroit may be defensively, they seem to even worse shooting the ball. Oakland, who is an ugly 0-9 SU, has shot just 35.4% from the floor so far and 29.0% from three-point range. Yet all but one of their games (the 2nd one) has gone Over the total! That streak should end Saturday afternoon. Detroit is no better when it comes to shooting the basketball. They are making only 38.5% of their FG attempts so far, including an unsightly 28.9% from 3-point range. The Titans just allowed an average of 89 PPG in a pair of home losses to Wright State. Both of those games went Over the total. Again though, their defense is going to get a major break here in facing one of the worst teams in the entire country. The most points Detroit has scored in a game this season is 76 and this is the highest O/U line for any game to date. Same for Oakland, whose previous high O/U line was 148.5 against Michigan State. They played Detroit twice last season and while both of those games went Over, the final point totals were 141 and 147, both of which would be UNDERS in this scenario. Oddsmakers have adjusted too much in the wake of all the poor defensive efforts these teams have delivered in the early part of the season. Again, neither is shooting the ball well and that means I am going Under on a very high total. 10* Under Oakland/Detroit |
|||||||
12-22-20 | Purdue v. Iowa UNDER 156 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Purdue/Iowa (9:00 ET): Iowa is 7-0 Over this season and 3-0 Over its L3 games vs. Purdue. So this is most definitely a “contrarian” type play Tuesday as we look to buck those aforementioned trends. One more thing - Iowa comes in averaging an astonishing 98.7 PPG. They just suffered their 1st loss of the season, 99-88 to Gonzaga on Saturday. But in the face of all that info, I’m still going Under here in the Big 10 opener as there’s simply no way those types of numbers can be sustained. The 88 points scored in the Gonzaga loss were actually the FEWEST by Iowa in a game this season! But let’s keep in mind that they’ve been able to “run up the score” against some bad teams thus far. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are far from “elite,” but they are holding opponents to just 68.5 PPG on 38.9% shooting here in Iowa City. Again, they’ve hosted some weak teams, but they’re doing a solid job at defending the three-point line plus opponents are shooting just 40.8% overall for the season, even after Gonzaga went 36 of 70. To put Iowa’s 7-0 Over run to start the season in its proper perspective, note there are only two other teams in the country that are 5-0 Over or “better.” Purdue comes in off an 88-78 win over Notre Dame, so they’ve done some scoring too, but I just can’t see it continuing like this. The Boilermakers are 3-0 Under as road dogs of 6.5 to 9 points the previous two seasons. Iowa has some serious revenge to exact here as they’ve lost four straight times to Purdue. They’ll be looking to play some defense. 10* Under Purdue/Iowa |
|||||||
12-21-20 | St. Joe's v. Tennessee UNDER 147 | Top | 66-102 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
8* Under St. Josephs/Tennessee (6:00 ET): St. Joe’s has played a murderous schedule thus far and things get no easier here as they pay a visit to Knoxville to face #10 Tennessee. So far, the Hawks have faced Auburn, Kansas and Villanova. Throw in a 81-77 loss to Drexel and it’s an 0-4 SU start with every game going Over the total. They’ve given up 81 points or more in every game. Do note, however, that one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) did go to overtime. Tennessee hasn’t given up more than 56 in any of its four games and thus it’s been a pretty easy 4-0 start for them. They’d actually gone Under in three straight to start the season before shooting a blistering 58.3% from the floor against Tennessee Tech over the weekend, including 47.4% from three-point range. Six players were in double figures as the team produced its 8th largest MOV (54 points) in program history. They scored 103 points, which is something you just don’t see much in College Hoops. Of course, you have to consider the opponent. With UT not having allowed more than 56 points in any game so far, I have to think this is where St. Joe’s Over streak comes to an end. Assuming we get the “usual brand” of Volunteer defense, that would require them also scoring 90+ (to send this one Over) and I just don’t see that happening. Playing a second game in four days, it’s going to be next to impossible to replicate the shooting we saw vs. Tenn Tech. None of the Vols’ first three games saw more than 121 total pts scored and this is easily the highest O/U line for any of their games to date. St. Joe’s hasn’t shot well this season and the Under is 7-1 when they face a SEC team. The Under is also on a 25-12 run here in Knoxville and the Vols are allowing just 32.9% shooting YTD. 8* Under St. Joseph’s/Tennessee |
|||||||
12-16-20 | Samford v. Troy State OVER 148 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
10* Over Samford/Troy (7:00 ET): All of Troy’s games thus far have stayed Under the total. Note that the last game (Central Baptist) did not have a total posted, but considering the final score (61-44), it would have been an Under had a number been posted. But here, the Trojans are finally matched up against an opponent that has no problem putting the ball in the basket. Samford comes in averaging 86.0 PPG on the season and is 41-22 Over its L63 games overall. This one will be high-scoring. Take the Over. These teams met last season and Samford won 72-60. That was NOT an Over, however Samford shot very well in the win, making over 50% of their shots from three and overall. It was a bad shooting night for Troy, who finished at 32.3% overall and 25.9% from three-point range. Poor shooting has also plagued the Trojans during this 3-3 start as they are at just 34.4% overall from the field and 23.1% from behind the arc. Those are simply hideous numbers and HAVE to improve moving forward. Good thing then that Samford is giving up an average of 78.2 PPG so far. Samford’s last game, a 79-75 loss to Georgia, did NOT go Over the total. However, dating back to last season, their previous seven games all had. Bulldogs’ games are average 164.2 PPG this season, which is well above the total for tonight’s game. Samford has scored at least 75 in all four games and topped 95 twice. They are a top 25 team in adjusted tempo, which means plenty of possessions and more opportunities to score. Troy is 6-2 Over at home when the total is 145 to 149.5. 10* Over Samford/Troy |
|||||||
03-11-20 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas UNDER 146.5 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas (9:25 ET): Both teams have been going Over a lot recently (three straight for Vandy and five straight for Arkansas). But when facing each other, Under has been the way to go in the past. The last four head to head meetings have all stayed Under including a 75-55 Hogs’ win in Fayatteville two months ago. Look for this 1st round SEC Tournament matchup to do the same. Arkansas has basically been going Over in almost every game this year. Not only do they come into the SEC Tourney on five-game Over streak, the Razorbacks are 15-2 Over in conference play this season! The Vandy game was one of the two that stayed Under obviously, a 73-59 loss at Florida on 2/18 was the other. Of course, this is a team that played FOUR overtime games in the regular season (helps w/ Overs) as well. The L5 games have been far higher scoring than normal for the Hogs, averaging 164.8 PPG, which is way up from where they are at for the season (145 PPG). The recent numbers aren’t likely to hold. While not on campus, the SEC Tournament does take place in Nashville, giving Vanderbilt a slight boost. The Commodores finished last in the regular season though w/ only three conference wins. Two of those three came in the last eight days in upsets over Alabama and South Carolina. The Commies averaged 85 PPG in that pair of victories, which is highly unlike them as they average only 71.7 PPG for the season. They too are “due” for a downturn in scoring. They’ve shot less than 40% in conference play this season! 10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas |
|||||||
03-08-20 | Iowa v. Illinois OVER 148 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Over Iowa/Illinois (7:00 ET): While these two teams are both considered safe for making the NCAA Tournament, they’re each off a loss. Obviously, you don’t want to head into your conference tournament on a losing streak. But that will be the reality for either the Hawkeyes (who lost 77-68 at home to Purdue on Tuesday) or the Fighting Illini (who lost 71-63 at Ohio State on Thursday). What I see taking place tonight in Champaign-Urbana is a high-scoring game. Take the Over. I have to admit that I do have some reservations about Iowa entering the NCAA Tournament. While one of the premier teams in the country at the offensive end of the floor (7th in efficiency), they are just 88th in defensive efficiency and that’s traditionally not a good sign this time of year. Of course, those kinds of numbers also seem conducive to producing lots of Overs. Despite poor shooting from both sides (around 37%), the game vs. Illinois still went Over. I look for the Hawkeyes to shoot a lot better in this game. The winner of this game will finish 4th in the Big 10 standings and thus get the final double-bye for the tournament. So plenty is at stake in this one. Illinois held Ohio State to 37.5% shooting on Thursday but still couldn’t get the job done in Columbus. Iowa is a tougher team to defend as they shot 50% in the first meeting and made 10 three-pointers en route to a 72-65 victory. The Over is 5-2 for Illinois following an ATS loss. 10* Over Iowa/Illinois |
|||||||
03-05-20 | Boise State v. UNLV UNDER 141 | Top | 67-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Boise St/UNLV (5:00 ET): This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Mountain West Tournament. Neither team had to win to get here and the winner will (likely) face top seed San Diego State in the semifinal tournament tomorrow. UNLV is the host team of this event (as per usual) and comes in hot. The Rebels have won and covered five straight games, including handing San Diego State its only loss of the regular season. But that’s not the only streak on the line today. Boise State has gone Under in eight consecutive contests. These teams split the two regular season matchups, each winning at home. UNLV obviously has the edge here by being tournament hosts, but this is hardly a good shooting team. During their 5-0 SU/ATS run, they have made nearly 50% of their FG attempts. But that number figures to come down here. The Rebels are not a good outside shooting team (just 30.9% at home) and the two regular season games vs. Boise State saw them make only 12 of 49 attempts from behind the arc. Boise State averages 81.1 PPG at home, but only 71.8 on the road. Good for them then that they do a great job defensively at guarding the three-point line, holding opponents below 30% there for the season. Another thing to consider here is that UNLV plays at a very slow pace. They are just 249th (per KenPom) in adjusted tempo this season. Prior to scoring 92 pts against a terrible San Jose State team in the final regular season game, the Rebels had gone Under four straight times themselves. 8* Under Boise St/UNLV |
|||||||
03-01-20 | Creighton v. St. John's OVER 153 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
10* Over Creighton/St. John’s (12:00 ET): Very quietly, Creighton is a team peaking at the right time. While the Bluejays may not be garnering much national attention, they have made a pretty clear case to be considered one of the top 15 teams in America and perhaps the best in the Big East. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games including a current five-game win streak where they’ve covered the spread in every game. The primary reason for their success is an offense which ranks 5th nationally in efficiency. St. John’s isn’t having as much success as Creighton this season, but they can still score. Especially when they play at home. The Johnnies are averaging 77.2 PPG here, but that hasn’t done them much good lately as they are coming off losses at both Seton Hall and Villanova. Over the L5 games, the Red Storm have permitted their opponents to shoot 48.4% from the field. Creighton is obviously going to present a very tough challenge considering they come in averaging 78.2 PPG for the season. I’ve established that both teams are capable of scoring plenty of points on any given night. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the last time they met, which was back on Feb 8th in Omaha. Creighton won that game 94-82 as an 8.5-pt favorite and it obviously sailed well past the total. I know it’s been “tough sledding” of late for the Johnnie’s w/o leading scorer Heron, but they’ll do enough offensively here for another Over. 10* Over Creighton/St. John’s |
|||||||
02-25-20 | La Salle v. Davidson UNDER 138.5 | Top | 49-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Under LaSalle/Davidson (7:00 ET): Davidson had certainly hoped to be a bigger factor in the A-10 this year, but like everyone else in the conference, the Wildcats are looking up at Dayton. Still though, that hasn’t stopped them from playing better of late. Davidson has won 7 of its last 10 games with one of the losses coming in 4OT’s and another coming by a single point. Of particular interest to this selection is the fact the L4 games have all gone Over the number. LaSalle went 2-0 last week including an upset win at GW on Sunday. The Explorers entered their last game as three-point pups and came away w/ a 72-62 win in what was (sadly) maybe their most impressive showing in conference play so far. Prior to last week, LaSalle was just 2-10 SU in A-10 games. Their three conference wins besides the one at GW have come at the expense of Fordham & St. Joe’s, who are a combined 2-26 SU in conference play and tied for last. I mentioned earlier that Davidson’s L4 games have all gone Over. Well, the last one would NOT have done so had it not been for OT. There was also another game in the streak that saw them sink a season-high 18 three-pointers (against Fordham), which won’t happen again anytime soon. Davidson is actually a good defensive team (allowing just 61.1 PPG at home) and w/ LaSalle shooting only 40% in conference play, this looks like a pretty clear Under to me. 10* Under LaSalle/Davidson |
|||||||
02-22-20 | Cal-Irvine v. CS-Northridge OVER 149 | Top | 87-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge (10:00 ET): UC Irvine has been the dominant team out in the Big West the last two seasons. Last year, the Anteaters went 15-1 SU in conference play and 31-6 SU overall. They’re not nearly that dominant this season, but still have only lost two conference games and come into Saturday having won three straight. Thursday saw them avenge one of those two Big West defeats as they easily handled Long Beach State, winning that game 70-55 as 15-point favorites (so it was a push). CS Northridge was a team seemingly “left for dead” at one point as the Matadors started their season with seven consecutive losses. They are 11-9 SU since, but just got blitzed by UC Davis on Thursday, losing 110-98! No there wasn’t any overtime involved to get to that final score. Both teams shot almost 60% from the game and were a combined 25 of 44 on three-point attempts. While we shouldn’t expect that level of shooting again, it would require a pretty substantial dropoff for this one to go Under. UC Irvine’s last four games have all gone Under as they’ve held the opposition to just over 60 PPG. But that’s going to be hard to do here as CS Northridge averages more than 80 PPG at home. Of course, you should also expect UC Irvine to score it’s “fair share” as Northridge is giving up almost 80 PPG for the season. This is the first meeting of the year and what’s interesting for UC Irvine is that the majority of their first meetings w/ conference opponents this year have gone Over. 10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge |
|||||||
02-20-20 | Loyola Marymount v. St. Mary's OVER 127 | Top | 51-57 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Loyola Marymount/St. Mary’s (11:00 ET): St. Mary’s goes for the season sweep of Loyola Marymount tonight and really the task shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Gaels won by 11 last month and LMU has won just two times away from home all season. One was a neutral site game as the Lions’ record in “true” road games is 1-8 SU. St. Mary’s is 4-0 SU/ATS the L4 head to head meetings. Still laying this many points is not something I have much interest in. Instead, let’s look at the total. It’s a pretty low number here and I’m not exactly sure why. The Over is 5-1 for St. Mary’s this season when the total is 120 to 129.5 and this team is 13th in the country in offensive efficiency. Five of the last six St. Mary’s games have gone Over, most of them with higher O/U lines than this one. Their home games average 137.5 PPG, which is well above tonight’s total. The first meeting vs. LMU was a 73-62 final where the Gaels shot 56% from the field. Now Loyola Marymount doesn’t exactly score a ton of points. But even if they can get to their season average of 60.3 per game away from home, we should be in good shape here. The Lions did just pull an upset over the weekend, holding Santa Clara to 59 pts in what was their first “true” road win of the season. But you shouldn’t look for that kind of defensive effort here against St. Mary’s. The good news is St. Mary’s ranks outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. From LMU’s perspective, the number is low as the Over is 36-17 the L53 times the total has fallen into the 120 to 129.5 range. 10* Over Loyola Marymount/St. Mary’s |
|||||||
02-19-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota UNDER 150 | Top | 94-83 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota (8:00 ET): If you recall, we went Under on South Dakota State’s last game and came away with a winning ticket. That game was played Sunday against IPFW and the Jackrabbits held their opponents to just 64 points on 37.5% shooting. The current Summit League leaders are now on a six-game win streak and have held their L5 opponents to an average of 65.6 PPG on 37.5% shooting. During that time, only one team (Denver) has scored more than 64 pts or shot better than 37.5% against them. SDSU hits the road Wednesday to face North Dakota, who like IPFW is a middle of the pack team in this conference. The Fighting Hawks did just record an 86-83 victory at Western Illinois, who is one of the worst teams in the Summit League. Before that win & cover (were -2), ND had covered only one of its previous nine games. The first meeting with South Dakota State did not go well as the Jackrabbits rolled to an 87-66 win thanks to shooting 50% from the field. Fortunately, SDSU does not score nearly as much on the road as they do at home. While North Dakota may have some issues defending, the Under remains 7-1 this year for South Dakota State when the O/U line is 150 to 159.5. Also note that North Dakota’s last game went into overtime. It was 73-73 at the end of regulation, so the final score is a little misleading. The Fighting Hawks shot just 41.3% overall and were a dreadful 5 of 23 from three-point range. What “propped” their point total up was them going 29 of 33 from the FT line. They also shot poorly from 3-pt range in that 1st meeting w/ SDSU, which should repeat itself here as the Jackrabbits are holding opponents to 30% from behind the arc this year. 10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota |
|||||||
02-18-20 | Colorado State v. UNLV UNDER 148 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under Colorado St/UNLV (10:30 ET): From Jan 8 through Feb 1, UNLV went Over in seven straight games. Since then, the Under is 3-1 in their games w/ the lone Over coming in a game that went to overtime (82-79 loss to Nevada). The Rebels aren’t exactly a great shooting team (I watched them in person vs. Nevada) and are making just 30.5% of their 3PA here at the Thomas & Mack Center. Tuesday sees them hosting a Colorado State team that has gone Over in five straight. These teams met not long ago in Fort Collins and CSU hung 95 points on the Runnin’ Rebels in a blowout victory. That was the final game of the 7-game Over streak for UNLV. It was also the 2nd straight game Colorado State scored 90+. They haven’t been able to reach that number since, but their games continue to go Over. These L5 games have seen the Rams average 83.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting. Both numbers are well above their season averages. Playing on the road, I don’t expect Colorado State to have a big offensive night here. They only shot 40.7% in Saturday’s 77-70 win at Wyoming. Similarly, UNLV should not be expected to match the 50% shooting we saw against short-handed New Mexico Saturday. Their previous three games saw them finish below 40% from the field. Colorado State shot 61.5% overall in the first meeting and was 11 of 17 from three-point approach. It’s all but impossible for them to match those numbers here. 8* Under Colorado State/UNLV |
|||||||
02-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo OVER 148 | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Ball State/Buffalo (7:00 ET): Buffalo is a high-scoring team. Their 78.2 PPG average ranks among the top 25 in the country overall and they are averaging more than 80 PPG here at home. However, each of the Bulls’ previous six games have gone Under the total, three of those being among their lowest scoring efforts of the year. But after failing to top 65 pts in B2B games for the 1st time all season, there was an offensive breakthrough last Friday at Toledo. The Bulls won that game 83-65 (as a 2.5-pt dog). Similarly, Ball State had gone Under in eight straight contests heading into this past weekend. But their streak has been snapped. Differing from Buffalo, it was a defensive breakdown that cost the Cardinals their last game as they gave up 77 points in a six-point loss at home to surprising Bowling Green. While that was the most points BSU has allowed in any MAC game this season, it was far from their worst defensive effort. The last time they played on the road, the Cardinals let Western Michigan shoot 61% from the field! So Buffalo should definitely score plenty of points tonight. While the number may be on the rise, this is still one of the lower O/U lines in recent memory for the Bulls. Defensively, they have held three straight opponents below 70 pts and the last two both below 40% shooting. But they’re still giving up 74.6 PPG on the year with opponents shooting 45% in home games. So there’s an opening for Ball St offensively in this one and I look for them to take advantage of it. 10* Over Ball State/Buffalo |
|||||||
02-16-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota State UNDER 144.5 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10* Under IPFW-South Dakota St (3:00 ET): Out in the Summit League, South Dakota State is tied with North Dakota State for first place (both teams sporting 10-2 SU records in conf play). The Jackrabbits have won five straight and 10 of their last 11 as they remain perfect on the year at home (14-0 SU). They’ve enjoyed a strong season at the betting window as well, going 17-8 ATS overall including 12-4 when favored. They tend to put a lot of points on the board, especially at home where they average 82.4 PPG. IPFW is facing a pretty tough “ask” from the schedule makers here as they just played at North Dakota State Thursday. They lost, 80-70, but at least got the cash as 12.5-poingt dogs. The loss snapped a two game win streak for the Mastadons, who now have to travel to face the other co-leader in the Summit. The first meeting this season with SD State yielded a 70-61 loss, at home obviously, as IPFW had a dreadful shooting night (32.4% overall) which included them missing 22 of 26 three-point attempts. As you may have guessed, South Dakota State shoots the ball well here at home. They shot the ball well vs. IPFW in that first meeting, making over 52% of their FG attempts. They figure to shoot it pretty well again this afternoon, but let’s not discount the defense the Jackrabbits are playing either. Before the 90-78 win over Denver on Friday, they’d held three straight opponents to under 37% shooting. IPFW generally does NOT shoot the ball well. Neither team ranks in the top 200 in adjusted tempo. 10* Under IPFW/South Dakota St |
|||||||
02-15-20 | Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 117.5 | Top | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Virginia/North Carolina (8:00 ET): Even though the conference currently has three top eight teams (Louisville, Duke, Florida State), on the whole it’s been a very disappointing season for the ACC. Nowhere is that more evident than here as Virginia faces North Carolina Saturday night. Virginia, who won last year’s NCAA Tournament, is fighting just to get in the Big Dance this year. North Carolina has no shot to make it into March Madness unless it wins the ACC Tournament, which seems unlikely at this point. Virginia is still playing its usual trademark defense as they rank third nationally in efficiency. But the offensive end has been ugly with them ranking 250th in efficiency. Compare that to last year’s title team which ranked 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency (5th in defensive efficiency). Overall, UVA games are only averaging a paltry 108.1 PPG this season, easily the fewest in the entire country. So it should be no shock that the total is really low here. But with UNC as the opponent, it’s too low. The Tar Heels have dropped four in a row including that heartbreaker to Duke last Saturday night. That was followed by a dismal effort at Wake Forest where they lost 74-57 as a 1.5-point favorite. But here in Chapel Hill, they are still averaging 74.6 PPG. Will they reach that average tonight against Virginia? Probably not. But UNC should score enough to get this one Over. My view is that both teams are capable of scoring 60 here. The Over is 5-1 this year in Virginia road games with a total of 119.5 or less. 10* Over Virginia/North Carolina |
|||||||
02-14-20 | Manhattan v. Iona OVER 134 | Top | 57-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Manhattan/Iona (7:00 ET): These MAAC schools just met 12 days ago with Manhattan dealing Iona a humiliating 72-49 blow as 4-point favorites. Since then, Iona has bounced back with two convincing wins on the road: 73-52 over Quinnipiac and 78-54 over Fairfield. Both came as underdogs. The Gaels are certainly better than their 7-12 SU record, but have also proven to be wildly inconsistent. Not sure if they can be trusted as favorites tonight, even though they are back home in a huge revenge spot. Manhattan is also unbeaten since the Iona game having beaten Niagara 77-59 (-6.5) and Quinnipiac (65-63). The latter was on the road while the former was at home. Over the course of what is now a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, the Jaspers have allowed an average of only 57 PPG on 36.6% shooting. But I cannot see them continuing that level of defensive play for much longer, especially on the road. On the flip side, the Jaspers may not be a deadly offensive team, but look for them to take advantage of the fact Iona is allowing opponents to shoot better than 45% from behind the 3-point arc this season. Iona likely won’t shoot as well here as they did in their last game (57.4%!) but they’ll definitely be more proficient than they were in the first meeting with Manhattan when they made only 32.6% of their shots. Iona home games are averaging 147.1 PPG, which is well up from 136.9 PPG on the road. Because of that, I’m throwing down on the Over here as both sides are capable of scoring far more than you think. 10* Over Manhattan/Iona |
|||||||
02-14-20 | Buffalo v. Toledo OVER 153 | Top | 83-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
8* Over Buffalo/Toledo (6:30 ET): Buffalo enjoyed a really nice run of success under Nate Oats. During his tenure, the Bulls made it to the NCAA Tournament three times and advanced to the Round of 32 twice. But Oats bolted for “greener pastures” (i.e. Alabama), leaving his former program as basically “just another MAC team.” While still one of the better teams in the conference, UB can no longer count on dominating night after night. They come into tonight’s game having lost 3 of 5, leaving them at 15-9 SU on the year. I would rate Toledo fairly comparably to Buffalo so the line tonight doesn’t surprise me. Toledo has a losing record (12-13 SU) and has not done well against the spread this season as they are just 2-10-1 ATS the L13 games. But earlier this week, the Rockets were able to put an end to five-game SU losing streak by beating Miami (OH) 65-57. They held the RedHawks to 36.2% shooting, which is abnormally good defensive performance for them. The same statement could be made for Buffalo in their last game (which was last Friday) as they held Central Michigan to 35.7% shooting in a 65-60 win. Buffalo’s last five games have all stayed Under, the last two by huge margins. But by playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the entire country, this team is due for an offensive resurgence. They still average 78.0 PPG on the year. Toledo is not a good defensive team as they rank a woeful 258th nationally in defensive efficiency. Expect this to be a high-scoring game. 8* Over Buffalo/Toledo |