When a team has a prolonged win streak, the big worry is the game after a first loss. Even with the Knicks being at home, you are seeing the spread venture down to pick em territory. San Antonio has made enough defensive adjustments that game two’s shining performers in Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet were non existent in game three. Defense gets the Spurs back in the series, as they pull off another road win.

The Spurs find themselves down 0-2, where their youth showed in both games. The losses is what gets glorified, but the Spurs battled back with quick rallies in both games. Look for a bit more consistent of a game, and a better coaching job from Mitch Johnson. Where they can use their total roster for execution, instead of force feeding Wemby. Take the Spurs in game three.

With the Knicks winning game one, this should be a series that goes seven games. Tonight I expect the Spurs to respond in a big way as they have off a loss in the postseason. As strong as the Knicks win streak is, the Spurs have lost two games in a row just once in the postseason. Since the start of the New Year, they have not lost consecutive games at home. The way they blew game one was reminiscent of the NBA Cup championship. A late third quarter double digit lead that quickly faded. They respond in game two.

New York’s efficiency has now put them at a ten game playoff win streak. Game three was one of their top playoff performances as they wanted to end any hope of Cleveland winning two games at home. The perfect play cannot continue, and I expect Cleveland to have an answer to a series that should be 2-1. Take the Cavs on the line move of being 2.5/3 point favorites to a two point underdog.

The New York Knicks playoff win streak at nine has now surpassed their best win streak of the regular season. They are up two games to none on the Cavaliers, but Cleveland has had its moments. Game one they of course blew, and game two was about missed wide open looks from beyond the arc. They went 9 of 35 as a team, and also missed ten free throws. In a desperation game at home, look for Cleveland to finally gain a win.

The New York Knicks have not stepped onto the court in nine days, since they swept the Philadelphia 76ers. It has also been since May 6th when they last had their starting lineup together with OG Anunoby. I’m expecting the layoff to have a similar impact as it did for the Thunder in game one yesterday. There’s also a build up pressure on this Knicks team to avoid a letdown as they did in game one against the Pacers in the ECF a season ago. Grab the points with the Cavaliers.

The OKC Thunder as the defending champions you could not ask for a better start in the first two rounds of the playoffs. They have yet to lose as they swept the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams were dealing with injuries, and now the Thunder will see a Spurs team that has the depth to match them. I would not be surprised for the Thunder to have a double digit lead at halftime, but this Spurs team has shown to be a second half team. Grab the number with the Spurs.

We have seen things in the Pistons and Cavaliers series that defy gambling sense. The home team has won and covered the first four games. Take it a step further and the Cavaliers have won every home playoff game, and lost every road game. Expecting that angle to uphold today as Detroit just had a flat third quarter in game four. They showed resiliency making a game of it, and this is a must win game for them to avoid going back to Cleveland down 3-2. Lay it with the Pistons.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 5 and 0 in the playoffs at home, but have not won consecutive postseason games since game two against the Raptors. Each playoff game they seem to have that crucial down stretch, that allows the opponent to surge. Expect Detroit’s bench guards to perform better in game three when they went a combined 4 of 16. At the very least I expect the spread to finally be worthy for the underdog. Grab the points with Detroit.

The New York Knicks have now rolled six straight playoff wins. Postseason is all about timing, and the Sixers used so much energy to take down the Celtics that they have ran out of gas. Both games two and three they had nothing in the tank with low output fourth quarters. As rare as it is to see a fourth seed complete a sweep, the Knicks do so here today. Back them on the moneyline.

Right now in the Eastern Conference we have two lopsided series. The New York Knicks are up 3 games to 0, and the Pistons 2 games to 0 on the Cavaliers. Cleveland, has dug themselves a hole in both games one and two but came back in both to make a game of it in the fourth quarters. The efficiency in the half court can be better, and don’t be surprised if Jaylon Tyson and Dennis Shroder’s roles grow with Harden struggling. Cavs end the Pistons five game playoff winning streak, and cover the number.

Game seven’s we have seen mixed results so far. Philadelphia won on the road, and Detroit cruised at home. Between Toronto and Cleveland, we know the health concerns with Toronto have ballooned the spread. Ingram is doubtful, Barnes is banged up, and they have ben without Quickley. Yet, the role players have all elevated their play and they have played exceptional defense on Harden/Mitchell. Even though the home team has won every game in this series, I have the Raptors at least covering the big number. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers were on the brink of being down three games to two, but came together to go on a scoring run that carried over into the fourth quarter. That can be the spark for a Cavaliers team that lost the two games in this series with poor fourth quarter play in games three and four. Cleveland finishes off Toronto, and ends the streak of the home team winning every game. 

The playoffs have shown us not to over react to a double digit win. That’s heightened with the fact that New York went into Atlanta and had such a strong game four performance. That was with their backs against the wall, as they could ill afford to go down three games to one. Games one through three though the spread was decided in the final minutes. Back Atlanta in what is such a crucial game five.

The Miami Marlins are one of the biggest underdogs on the season tonight, as they travel to face the Dodgers. Chris Paddock numbers look poor, but he has kept teams at bay on the road. Three road starts all have scored two runs or less, including the Yankees not scoring against him. He also had a fantastic start at the Dodgers last season where he went six innings strong, and gave up just four hits, with 8 strikeouts. The road team has also covered on the run line in three out of the last four game ones to open a home series against the Dodgers. Take the Marlins on the run line.

With the Thunder up 3 games to 0, don’t be surprised if Coach Daigneault uses tonight as an opportunity to adjust his rotations for the next round. This is just the second playoff game without Jalen Williams, and this was a big practice of his last year as he tweaked the playoff rotations constantly. That can lead to surges for the Suns as the Thunder use more personnel off the bench. Phoenix may get swept but play competitive enough to cover as double digit home underdogs. Grab the points with the Suns.

Going back to the regular season, the LA Lakers have now won four straight matchups over the Houston Rockets. The playoff level a team can rise to just was not there in LA for Houston. A warranted spread from oddsmakers does not always show initially in a series. I expect that tonight with the Rockets backs against the wall, and the Lakers getting healthier with Austin Reaves now questionable. A must win game where the tide can change by taking care of business on their home floor. Lay the number with the Rockets.  

The Atlanta Hawks showed their youth in Saturday’s game one against the Knicks. New York used one strong stretch to build a double digit lead that proved to much for the Hawks to overcome. Even with that the spread stayed flat from game one, as Atlanta does have the personnel to match the Knicks. They also did a great job defending Jalen Brunson after the first quarter. All three regular season games were down to the wire, look for that here in game two. Back the Hawks.

The Orlando Magic would love to take advantage tonight and avoid having to play their division mates in the Charlotte Hornets. Philadelphia we know is without Joel Embiid, but has Maxey, an emerging rookie in Edgecome, and veteran Paul George. Still, I’ll back the Magic who have increased their defense when facing Philadelphia each of the last two games they have scored just 103 points. Give me Orlando plus the points.

The Miami Heat have been one of the success stories of Adam Silver implementing the play-in. They went all the way to the NBA Finals just three years ago after securing the eighth seed via the play-in. A season ago they won two road games in the play-in last year against Atlanta and Chicago. Now they are back in the same tenth spot, playing their third straight play-in road game.  That’s not sustainable on continuing to have success.  Charlotte after losing the first three matchups to the Heat, blew them out in the final meeting by thirty points. Look for the young team in the Hornets to take out the veteran Heat. Lay the number.

The Charlotte Hornets squandered a golden opportunity to be the eighth seed in the play-in. The downfall started by allowing a 10-0 run to close the third quarter against the Celtics, and they lost again on Friday to the Pistons by 18 points. Both games the second halves were letdowns. Look for Charlotte to get a proper tune up game in for a confidence boost before their play-in matchup against the Heat. Lay the number with the Knicks treating this like a preseason game.

A game that will likely have the lowest handle of today’s slate is Memphis against the Utah Jazz. Utah is a favorite despite losing ten straight games. Just in their last five losses the opposition has increased their scoring each time, with the Pelicans finishing with 156 points Tuesday. In a game filled with reserves in starter roles take the Jazz to in what is their final home game of the season. 

The Brooklyn Nets have surprisingly won consecutive games, and three out of their last five overall. Tonight will mark their sixth straight home game, which I believe can lead to a bit of complacency in a spot against a Pacers team with a worse record overall. Brooklyn has won just three games in a row once this season, and I’ve been impressed with the younger players getting action for the Pacers in Jalen Slawson, Ethan Thompson, and others. Back the Pacers as the road favorite.

The New York Knicks have had the upper hand recently over the Boston Celtics. They won in six games in last year’s conference semi-finals, and have won two out of three in the regular season this year. Both wins were by double digits including handing the Celtics their second worst home loss of the season by twenty two points. An outlier tonight is Jayson Tatum returning to Madison Square Garden for the first time since his achilles injury in game four of last season. That could have a slight impact on his game, but look for the Knicks to take the regular season series 3 games to 1 and cover the spread.

In both meetings between the Charlotte Hornets and Boston Celtics the road team has won. That angle could be disrupted tonight, but I’m siding with the underdog to cover. Charlotte’s only game below 100 points in their last fourteen games was a 114 to 99 home loss against the Celtics. A side note is both matchups Charlotte was playing the second night of a back to back spot. This is the first time they will be on rest. Take the Hornets plus the points.

The Washington Wizards showed their true hand on Sunday, in a position to win with under four minutes left against Brooklyn. After a timeout, they let off the gas and a 105 to 101 lead turned into an eight point deficit in less then two minutes. Although the Bulls have the worst losing streak in the Eastern Conference at seven games, they get what may be their final win of the season tonight going away. Lay the number.

The no one wants to win game will take place between the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets. Washington in consecutive games has given up 153 and 152 points, this includes yesterday against the Miami Heat. Still, the value to continue losing for the Wizards being a game back of Brooklyn is a value indicator to back. The Wizards override their poor defense with their scoring ability and cover the spread.

I’m looking for the Pistons to continue to be an ATS devalued team minus Cade Cunningham. They have won eight out of their last ten games, with the only two losses being in overtime against the Thunder and the Atlanta Hawks. Philadelphia won’t have Joel Embiid in the lineup, and were a bit flat on the offensive end of the floor last night against the Timberwolves. Take the Pistons.

One of the teams in the NBA that has been respectable despite a downgraded roster is the Memphis Grizzlies. Today though is an isolated spot to back the road favorite in the Toronto Raptors. Toronto went down in poor fashion their last time out as a 12.5 point home favorite against the Sacramento Kings. In a get right spot back the road team here in Toronto.

Yesterday was a flat spot for the Dallas Mavericks at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves were energized with the return of Anthony Edwards, and blew out the Mavericks by thirty points. Prior to that loss the Mavericks were competitive in four straight games. They lost two games in overtime, covered against Denver, and beat Portland as a double digit underdog. Tail Dallas as the slight road favorite.

It’s been a wild month of March for the Orlando Magic who had a seven game win streak, and followed it up with a six game losing streak. Ending that losing streak by beating the lowly Sacramento Kings by just four points only helps our case to back today. The Magic are 2-0 ATS against the Raptors this season, including outscoring them 44 to 21 in the fourth quarter of the matchup on January 30th. Grab the Magic plus the points. 

Iowa State is the big question mark heading into tonight with the status of Joshua Jefferson up in the air. Tennessee and Rick Barnes are aiming for their third straight Elite 8 appearance, which has the market on their side. To me though, they are similar to Nebraska that got away with a win in the Sweet 16 against Virginia. This will be a tight game, but grab the Cyclones who have that Gonzaga trait of everyone has been waiting for this program moment.

Blowout wins can shift one’s mindset for a steep line. Alabama took care of business easily with two wins by over 20 points against Hofstra and Texas Tech. Michigan is a different animal and has that ability to turn a tied game into a bettor’s nightmare within three to four game minutes. I’d put their explosive grade higher than anyone left in the tournament. Tail the Wolverines as they advance to the Elite 8.

Houston gets the opportunity to advance to the Elite 8 while playing in front of their own crowd. As rare as that is, when it comes to facing a true contender home court is not as big of an edge. Illinois is also a team that throws four to five waves of scoring bursts in a game. Additionally, the Sweet 16 has given Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars problems each of the past three years. They lost twice, and needed a miracle comeback against Duke last season. Tail Illinois.

The tournament is setup to prevent higher seeds from facing conference opponents early in March Madness. You may see it in the Elite 8, Final Four, or championship game but today we are seeing it because of Iowa’s big upset over Florida. Look for the Magic to continue as Iowa limited Nebraska to a season low 52 points in the first matchup, and erased a double digit deficit in the second to play in overtime. Grab Iowa’s mini Cinderella story plus the points.

The Chicago Bulls have covered three out of their last four games,  and our coming off one of the biggest surprises of the week. They took down the Houston Rockets as a nine point home underdog their last time out. I’ll fade them on the road tonight against a Philadelphia 76ers team that has quietly gained strength with the growth of their reserve starters. Justin Edwards is one of many 76ers players that has shined with roster injuries. Tail Philadelphia as the home favorite.

Wichita State is coming off an NIT blowout road win over a power school in Oklahoma State. That compounded with beating Tulsa in the prior two matchups has today’s spread a bit less on Tulsa’s side. The Golden Hurricane have not been at full strength, but showed in the second half of the American Conference semi-final against Wichita State some adjustments they can carry over into tonight. Grab Tulsa.

The LA Lakers continue their road trip by traveling up to face the Detroit Pistons. Detroit without Cade Cunningham is rightfully a home underdog, but their depth has advanced to continue to back on their home floor. This marks the Lakers fifth straight road game, and third straight against an Eastern Conference opponent. Each of their last two games they were in trouble for stretches against Orlando and the Miami Heat. Back Detroit. 

Losing an impact player like Aden Holloway certainly hurts a team. Yet, Alabama has the system to overcome the first weekend against a Texas Tech team that did lose their final three games prior to March Madness. A great back and forth game but look for Bama to close in the final minutes.

Portland has won three straight games, but did so against two bottom level teams in Indiana and Brooklyn. The other win was against a Timberwolves team playing without Anthony Edwards. Not expecting an outright win today against the Denver Nuggets, but do look for a better overall effort then February 20th’s result of 157 to 103. Take Portland on the big spread.

The Houston Rockets ended the Atlanta Hawks eleven game win streak in yesterday’s blowout win. Even with the Heat down a few players, look for a strong performance. Houston has been more vulnerable recently and this is the end of a five game home stand. They also beat the Rockets by ten points in late February

Just barely a little over a month ago Clemson had a 20 and 4 record, but finished their last ten games with a 4 and 6 record. They also lost big man depth with Carter Welling sustaining a season ending injury late in the season. Look for Iowa to possibly shoot a lower percentage overall then Clemson, but to make up ground with three point shots from Bennett Stirtz and one of the top percentage sharp shooters in Tavion Banks who shoots it at 47 percent. Take Iowa.

Miami Ohio caught the attention in the play-in with a run away win over SMU. The win was truly a bad spread, as SMU did not have Davis and showed down the stretch they were poor with a 1-4 record. Tennessee is a different story as they will guard the perimeter and make things difficult for Miami Ohio. This should be a different game after the ten minute mark in the first half. Lay the number with Tennessee. 

The Lakers are surging with seven straight wins, and victories in ten out of eleven games. It’s been a whirlwind week with games against Denver and consecutive road games against the Houston Rockets. Today, could be a spot where the Lakers value the long term health for the playoffs, rather then play their key players. Even if Luka and company are cleared, back the Heat who will be motivated off a thirty point loss to the Hornets.

For the second straight night the Pelicans are favored over the LA Clippers. They erased a 40 to 26 first quarter deficit to beat the Clippers by 15 points. Over the Clippers last two games they have blown big leads in the first quarter against the Spurs and Pelicans, which is maybe a sign of team fatigue. Back below .500 grab the Pelicans to take advantage for a second straight night.

The rest advantage for VCU and North Carolina, sides with the Tar Heels by three full days since North Carolina’s ACC exit last Thursday. That can be a factor early on for the Tar Heels to build a lead. Yet, VCU has shown their power all season long at adjusting to deficits and using their depth to rally. We saw it throughout Atlantic 10 conference play, and in the championship game against Dayton. Grab VCU plus the points.

The Toronto Raptors won both of their latest matchups at home over the Phoenix Suns, and Detroit Pistons. Now they will try and correct their issues on the road which has resulted in three straight losses and failures ATS. Chicago has been a team they have had strong results against with a sixteen point and nine point win this season. Lay the number with the Raptors.

The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic have the two best win streaks in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has won nine straight games overall, where they have covered in each victory. They’ve also had an advantageous home schedule as this is their tenth home game out of their last eleven. Look for Orlando to keep this close as they look to avoid going 0 and 3 on the year to Atlanta. Grab the points.

After beginning the season 16-0, Vanderbilt lost three straight games in SEC play. They got revenge on one of those losses yesterday by defeating Florida 91 to 74. Now they have a chance to do it again in what was their worst loss of the season to Arkansas 93 to 68. Take Vanderbilt to finish off the job as they win the SEC Conference Tournament.

The LA Lakers have won seven out of their last eight games. The only loss during that stretch was against tonight’s opponent in the Denver Nuggets. A game that saw a big line move on the Lakers side from 5.5 to 3.5 but failed ATS. Teams are typically vulnerable on the back end of a long home stand. Look for that scenario tonight as the Lakers are playing their fifth straight home game. Tail Denver.

The Miami Heat have rode not just a seven game winning streak, but have covered each game as well. Another hot team lies atop the Southeast division with the Orlando Magic on a six game winning streak, and have already beat the Heat four times this year. They may not get a fifth win but look for the spread to be precise on a two point line move on the Heat side with Norman Powell back. Grab the points with Orlando.

The SWAC has been an adventure when it comes to conference tournament action. The margin of error for Southern has been slim, as they won both conference tournament games by just three points. In fact, four out of their last five games have been decided exactly by three points. Prairie View A&M is the team that comes in with the nothing to lose mentality. They were not supposed to be here as an eighth seed. In their fourth game in five nights grab the underdog.

After a four game losing streak towards the end of conference play, Kelvin Sampson has his Houston Cougars back on track. The offense had excelled during their win streak, but now the defense caught up in yesterday’s win against the Jayhawks limiting them to 47 points. Tournament momentum for March can be as simple as freshmen growing that extra level at the tail end of the season. We are seeing that with Houston’s trio in Kingston Flemings, Chris Cenac, and Chase McCarty. Tail Houston.

Rest and an edge from conference play has been inconsistent in conference tournaments. For instance McNeese State after a triple overtime win over UT Rio Valley Grande had no issues defeating a Stephen F Austin team that defeated them in-conference. Tonight, Southern who played a wire to wire game yesterday against Arkansas Pine Bluff, while Florida A&M had the day off. Even though they defeated Southern in both conference matchups, look for the Jaguars to handle the Rattlers as they advance to the SWAC final.

The Toronto Raptors have lost four of their last five games, including consecutive games by double digits. Tonight they will face a Phoenix Suns team that is in a back to back spot after yesterday’s victory over the Indiana Pacers. Devin Booker has been on a tear with five straight games of 27 or more points, but his only game of the last five years scoring in single digits without leaving because of injury was at Toronto. He scored just 8 points in 33 minutes. Tail the Raptors in a bounce back spot.

Cal State Northridge struggled to close out the year where they lost three out of their last four games. Even though they defeated San Diego in both matchups this season, there’s elevated pressure tonight with four senior starters. Guard Josiah Davis is also very turnover prone, as on the season he averages close to five a game. Just in his last four games he has turned the ball over twenty six times. Take San Diego to avoid three losses to Cal State Northridge.

The Minnesota Timberwolves hit a low point two games ago when they matched a season worst twenty seven point loss against Orlando. The offense was not there once again in last night’s loss to the Lakers where they had Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVencenzo, and Anthony Edwards struggle from the field. Even if tonight’s another struggling game offensively, the Timberwolves showed just two weeks ago they can overcome that. They defeated the Clippers 94 to 88. Grab the Twolves as the underdog in a back to back spot.

One of the trends that has cashed ATS is teams playing for their coach that is on his way out. We have seen Arizona State, Oregon State, San Diego, amongst others cover spreads with their coaches exiting. Tarleton State’s Billy Gillespie was announced a few weeks ago they they will part ways. The Texans have lost four straight, but did play Abilene Christian well last month. They beat them in overtime, and had a double digit lead in the second half in the other February matchup. Two games that their star player Dior Johnson missed. Lay the number with Johnson in the lineup.

Jackson State pulled off an upset in yesterday’s win over Grambling, cashing outright on today’s spread offering against Florida A&M. A Rattlers team that Jackson State had their largest margin of victory in conference of 20 points, and also beat them by at point at Florida A&M. The blowout was a bad travel spot for the Rattlers traveling from Saturday to Monday, and the one point loss they blew a nine point halftime lead. Expect a different outcome today with the Rattlers on six days rest.

The Orlando Magic have won four straight games, and are off back to back wins of twenty points or more for the first time this season. Yet, they find themselves as a home underdog against a Cavaliers team that defeated them by fourteen and sixteen points in late January. With Cleveland just .500 over their last eight games this figures to be a closer game, but take the Cavs to outlast the Magic and go three for three ATS against Orlando.

The Golden State Warriors looked like they would have a get right spot yesterday against the Utah Jazz but lost 119 to 116. They are now just 1-4 over their last five games, but will face a favorable opponent tonight in the Chicago Bulls. Chicago after winning two of three games, fell flat in Sunday’s loss in Northern California against the Sacramento Kings. Look for the Bulls we saw that lost every game in February tonight. Lay the number with Golden State.

Conference USA features two tight games ATS wise today in the opening round. One that is tilted based on the regular season results is New Mexico State against Jacksonville State. The Aggies won both matchups including just five days ago in overtime. A game the Gamecocks kept New Mexico State below forty percent shooting. Look for a better effort in defending the Aggies top player in Jemel Jones, as Jacksonville State gets the cover.

One of the coldest teams ATS have been the Houston Rockets. They have not covered in five straight games, and are coming off giving up 145 points to the San Antonio Spurs. That was a season high in points allowed for the Rockets, and also their third game in four days. Off a day off look for a refocused Rockets team against Toronto. Lay the number.

Wright State put on a show in yesterday’s win over Northern Kentucky where they scored 103 points. That marked three straight games of scoring 90 points or more for the Raiders. That was also a tighter spread than today’s offering against Detroit. A Mercy team that has played Wright State well, earning a split in two games decided by four points or less. Grab Detroit plus the points.

Memphis has listed several players doubtful for tonight’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets. That makes an already thin roster dependent more so on backups against a Brooklyn team coming off a comeback win over the Detroit Pistons. The first matchup was also the fewest point scored in a Memphis game this season a 103 to 98 matchup. Take Brooklyn.

The Southern Conference is always one of the best conference tournament championship games. East Tennessee State may be the top seed but like Furman they had issues in yesterday’s semi-final performance. One of the biggest red flags has been their poor free throw shooting where they are a combined 24 of 41 in the tournament. Grab the points with Furman.

Like most teams in the NBA the Phoenix Suns are adjusting to returning players and injuries. As a result they have not covered their last two games, which also included a loss to the lowly Bulls. Their lone cover in three games was by a half point to the Sacramento Kings. Take the Hornets who quickly recover from their latest loss to the Miami Heat. 

Fairfield will play their third game in four days in the MAAC tournament. They’ll face the third place team in Siena who they split the regular season series against. The more recent meeting was the matchup the Stags won over Siena with a 72 to 58 victory. Even though they are the lower seed they have more momentum over Siena, with wins in five out of their last six games. Grab Fairfield plus the points.

San Francisco had as poor of a stretch as any team in conference when they went 3-8 up until last Saturday’s win over Pacific. With yesterday’s win over Portland the Dons have their first two game win streak since January 4th. Look for the Dons to be motivated off their worst loss of the season when Oregon State beat them on their home floor, 90-63 on February 12th.

The CAA Conference tournament continues Sunday as Monmouth faces Drexel. Both teams had lopsided wins versus each other this season. Drexel won the first matchup 73 to 51, and Monmouth won the more recent matchup 93 to 73. The correlation of points scored for Monmouth in both matchups is a direct reflection of how Monmouth improved in conference in the scoring department. Tail the Hawks to advance and cover the number.

Cal Santa Barbara has had a full week off as they look to end their Big West season on a positive note. Prior they have lost four out of their last five games with two overtime losses, and a close four point loss to UC Irvine. They’ll take on a UC San Diego team they defeated 62 to 48 earlier this season, and a Tritons team that had a tough second half in Thursday’s loss to Cal State Fullerton. Back UC Santa Barbara to finish off the season on a positive note. 

A team that has surged from a 4 and 8 conference record is Colorado State. They have won eight straight games, and are coming off a start to finish outright win at New Mexico on Wednesday. Look for a close game as both teams look to go into Mountain West tournament action playing their best basketball. Tail the Broncos to end the Rams winning streak on their home floor in the regular season finale.

Florida International concludes their Conference USA season at home hosting Western Kentucky. The Panthers are a team that tend to have lapses for key stretches in games. That’s led to a 1-4 ATS stretch over their last five home games. Take Western Kentucky who outscored the Panthers by a score of 50 to 32 in the second half of the first matchup on February 7th. 

The Indiana Pacers have lost seven straight games, and four straight games by 19 points or more. Much of the personnel that they are using are backup and third unit players. Yet, Pascal Siakam did return Wednesday after nearly two weeks off and scored 29 points. The Lakers respond off last night’s loss to Denver but fail to cover the big number.

In tournament action winning the first game in dramatic fashion can be the spark to get a team on a run. Southeast Missouri State won yesterday thanks to Lindenwood’s poor shooting at the free throw line, and got a last second basket to prevail. Their Coach Brad Korn, already was looking forward to tonight’s matchup against Morehead State in the postgame interview. A team in Morehead State that he mentioned has had a full week off. Look for that to have an impact early, as most teams that have played so far have struggled to shoot in the first half adjusting to the Ford Center arena.

Presbyterian heads into Big South tournament action having lost three games in a row all by close margins. Today, they will face a Radford team that scored at will in both matchups with 80 and 93 points. One victory was by 19 and the other by 9. Tournament action everything changes, and I expect Presbyterian to rise to the occasion after two close losses against the top teams in High Point and Winthrop.

Brown is better than their overall Ivy League record of 3 and 10. ATS wise they have covered in four out of their last five games, and won two games during that stretch.  Yet, they are getting to much benefit on the spread today as a near pick em against Penn. A Quakers squad that has won six out of seven games. Take Penn.

Lindenwood survived yesterday’s win over Arkansas Little Rock after nearly blowing a 27 to 9 lead. They will take on a Southeast Missouri State team that is 10 and 2 over their last 12 games. One of their worst halves all season was against Lindenwood where they trailed 45 to 18 at halftime. This is one of those games where the lower seed could very easily be the favorite. Tail Lindenwood as the slight underdog.

The Detroit Pistons are coming off a loss against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and have not lost two games in a row since December 28th. One of their weaknesses I’ve touched on is their poor ATS record against Western Conference teams, which includes a recent home loss against the San Antonio Spurs on February 23rd. Look for that to be an edge for Detroit tonight that faces a Spurs team returning from their longest road trip of the season in five games. Tail Detroit.

Horizon League action continues on Wednesday as Oakland hosts Northern Kentucky. The Golden Grizzlies may have the worse overall record but they were two games better in conference than the Norse. The difference in a home game and an away game was the fact they defeated Northern Kentucky in both regular season matchups. Take the Grizzlies for the three game sweep on the moneyline.

Having a key injury late in the season always creates an adjustment period for a team. For BYU, they are a different team without Richie Saunders and now can move forward without being a ranked team. Cincinnati’s strength at home has featured wins in six out of their last seven home games. That has created a value spot to fade them, as BYU does enough to cover the short number.

One of the disappointing teams in the SWAC have been the Southern Jaguars. They’ve lost three out of their last four games, including consecutive games at home. Even with their downfall play today’s opponent is favorable against an Alabama State team that is turnover prone. They had 17 turnovers in the first matchup against Southern, and rank 313th in the country in turnovers per game. Tail Southern.

The Toronto Raptors have lost eleven straight games against the New York Knicks. In late January it looked like that would finally end as they had a 66 to 55 lead in the third quarter, only to be outscored 64 to 25 the rest of the way. Look for the Raptors to be inspired off the flat performance and to end their long losing streak against the Knicks. Additionally, New York’s last win against the Spurs in the NBA Cup championship led to over aggressive spreads, as the Knicks went 1-10 ATS over their next eleven games. Tail the Raptors.

The Boston Celtics are choosing to rest Jaylen Brown once again in a back to back spot. This worked on the front end of the last instance against the Phoenix Suns, and also in early February against the Houston Rockets. Different scenario this time against a Milwaukee Bucks team I expect to bounce back from two embarrassing losses. They were blown out by the New York Knicks and allowed a 27 to 0 run in yesterday’s loss to the Bulls. Tail Milwaukee in a must win spot.

Charleston has the tough task of closing out their season against the top team in the CAA in UNC Wilmington. The Cougars already lost by twelve points in the first matchup, and will play their fourth road game out of their last five. Unlike UNC Wilmington tonight is the final regular season game for Charleston. Look for that to be a factor for the Cougars to close out the season strong, and at least cover against UNC Wilmington.

Today the Orlando Magic will host the Detroit Pistons and hope to avoid their first losing streak at home since January 24th. The Magic have been involved in four straight games down to the wire, but are coming off a difficult five point loss to the Houston Rockets. Look for the Pistons to shake off a couple of sluggish performances against the Thunder and Cavaliers. Lay the number with the Pistons.

I’ll add one more play for the night cap as Long Beach State finds themselves as a road favorite, despite losing ten straight games. One of their four Big West wins was against Cal State Bakersfield in which they won 81 to 75. Look for Long Beach State to be hungry to get what could quite possibly be their last win of the season. Lay the number with Long Beach State.

Both Alabama A&M and Alabama State have had a full week off since they last stepped on the court last Saturday. Alabama A&M finds themselves as a slim home favorite despite being second in the SWAC conference. Alabama State had the victory in hand at home against Alabama A&M with a four point lead with a minute and a half to go, but did not score another point. Look for the revenge angle to come to fruition here. Grab Alabama State plus the points.

Out in the Southland Conference, Southeast Louisiana has lost eight straight conference road games. They’re in last place out of the twelve conference teams in the Southland. Of their five wins they did defeat today’s opponent in Nicholls by a score of 67 to 61. The Colonels just ended a four game road trip where they scored a conference low 53 points. Tail Southeast Louisiana. 

Embarrassing losses can spark a team to bounce back. Look for that angle today as Florida International is coming off a 100 to 67 drubbing in Thursday’s loss against Sam Houston. It’s the Panthers worst loss of the season, and now they will face a Louisiana Tech team forty eight hours later. This is the same Thursday to Saturday scenario where the Panthers beat Louisiana Tech by thirteen points two weeks ago. Tail FIU.

Despite being undermanned and in a back to back spot the Dallas Mavericks are favored tonight. Memphis, has been on a decline ATS since their return from a west coast road trip earlier this month. Defensively over their last three games they gave up 136 points to Miami, 133 to Golden State, and Sacramento ended their 16 game losing streak against them. Tail the Mavericks.

Cal State Northridge has ascended into a first place tie in the Big West with seven straight wins. All three wins at home during that stretch have been by double digits, including a 24 point win over Hawaii. Still, UC Irvine is a team that has matches up well as showcased by a fourteen point win in the first matchup. Take Irvine to end Cal State Northridge’s win streak.

After losing seven straight games, Abilene Christian has won three out of their last four games. The market has them as a short road underdog against a team in Utah Tech tied for the most wins in the WAC with Utah Valley. Utah Tech has won seven out of their last eight games, and their best conference win was by 15 points against Abilene Christian. Yet, with the WAC having just seven teams it means some teams meet three times. That is the case tonight which so difficult to beat a team three times in one year. Tail Abilene Christian.

Three games ago the Portland Trailblazers were embarrassed by Denver losing 157 to 103. Since they have covered the number in each of their last two games. They have also won each of their last two road games by margins of 15 and 16 points. Even with their team injuries including Deni Avdija, they still have better stability than a Bulls team that has dropped ten straight. Tail Portland.

Washington State looks to go 2-0 on Loyola Marymount tonight. They won the first matchup 78-76, in a game they came back from a 24-10 deficit. Loyola Marymount is returning from a three game road trip, and since December 30th have had issues winning games in conference. The only two teams they have defeated are San Francisco and San Diego. Tail Washington State.

Record-wise, Western Carolina looks below average with a 12-15 overall record. Yet, they come into tonight on a four game winning streak. All four wins have come against teams at the bottom of the Southern Conference. Still win streaks give teams confidence, and now they have a chance to take down one of the top teams in conference in Mercer. The Catamounts showed how explosive they can be with 52 second half points in the first meeting against Mercer. Tail the home underdog.

New Mexico survived a road scare their last time out against Fresno State, where they had to mount a comeback from a double digit deficit. It could of been a look ahead spot to facing Nevada which has been superb at home in league play, with a 6-1 mark. This includes upsetting the top team in conference in Utah State Saturday as a home dog. Look for the Lobos to redial in and complete the series sweep over Reno. Grab the points.

UMass heads on the road tonight with losses in four straight games. Two of those four losses were in overtime, including losing to Buffalo on Saturday 86 to 82. Today is the right opponent against Ball State, which ironically was UMass’s first conference win since rejoining the MAC on January 10th. Grab UMass to snap their losing streak against a Ball State team that has lost six straight against MAC opponents.

The Detroit Pistons have won and covered five straight games overall. Look for that to end against a Spurs team that has also has a win streak winning their last eight games. One of the weaknesses of the Pistons post New Year’s is they are 2-7 ATS against Western Conference teams. In fact three of their four losses have come against teams out the West. Tail the Spurs.

The Orlando Magic are in a back to back spot tonight off a hard overtime loss against the Phoenix Suns. They’ll travel to face a Clippers team that will be thin without John Collins and even possibly Kawhi Leonard. On the year the Magic had one of their most decisive wins over the Clippers winning 129-101. Take the Magic tonight.