Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-12-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
#960 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants lost the series opener last night 4-3 and we expect a bounce back here with their top starter on the mound. Logan Webb has been very solid all season for the Giants with an ERA of 2.98 and he has allowed more than 3 ER’s just twice in his 17 starts. He’s been better at home with an ERA of 2.63 and he’s pitching outstanding right now with an ERA of 1.80 over his last 3 starts. Arizona’s offense has been solid over their last 10 games (despite 4-6 record) but they’ve faced only 1 starter during that stretch with an ERA of less than 4.00. We expect Arizona’s hitters to struggle tonight finally facing a top of the line starter. The Giants offense, on the other hand, should have a field day facing Dallas Keuchel. He has been terrible all season showing zero signs of a potential turn around. Keuchel has an ERA of 7.63 and opposing hitters have a batting average of .322 vs him. Not only are teams hitting the ball hard off him he’s also walking nearly 5 batters per 9 innings which has pushed his WHIP on the season to almost 2.00. On the road he’s been a trainwreck with an ERA of 11.81 and he’s allowed an absolutely ridiculous 38 baserunners in just 16 innings! SF ranks 5th in MLB in RPG and they are averaging over 5 RPG vs left handers this season. The Giants should rake offensively facing Keuchel until he turns the game over to the 8th worst bullpen (ERA) in MLB. Despite last night’s tight loss, San Francisco has dominated this series at home winning 17 of the last 21 meetings. We like them to win this one by 2+ runs. |
|||||||
07-11-22 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:20 PM ET - Both teams have their top starters on the mound tonight and we expect a low scoring battle. Scherzer came back from a stint on the DL on July 5th to make a start vs Cincinnati. He looked like he hadn’t missed a beat allowing just 2 hits and 0 ER’s in 6 IP. He racked up 11 strike outs in those 6 innings. On the season opponents are hitting just .198 vs Scherzer and he’s allowed only 48 total baserunners in 57+ innings. He has not faced Atlanta yet this season. Lefty Fried takes the hill for Atlanta and he’s been just as impressive. His ERA on the season is 2.52 and he’s allowed just 4 ER’s in his last 4 starts. Fried also has not allowed a HR since June 9th and is giving up just 0.50 HR’s per 9 innings this season. The Mets have struggled vs lefties this year averaging just 3.79 RPG on the road with a batting average of .239 overall vs southpaws. In his only meeting vs NY this year, Fried allowed 2 ER’s in 6 innings. Both are high strikeout pitchers and both walk only 1.5 batters per 9 innings so we look for very few baserunners tonight. Each bullpen ranks in the top 10 (Atlanta 4th & NYM 10th) so when the starters do exit we should be OK. These 2 NL East rivals have met 4 times this year and averaged just 7.5 total RPG in those meetings. With their top starters going here, we look for another pitcher’s duel. |
|||||||
07-10-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ASTROS Run Line -1.5 (even) vs. Oakland A’s, 4 PM ET - This is as much a play against the A’s as it is a play on the Astros. Oakland is the worst offense in baseball ranking last in runs/9 innings, team average (.209), OPS and are 29th in home runs per game. This A’s team averages just 3.26 runs per game on the season and only 2.90 runs per game their last ten. They will face Jake Orduzzi who is coming off a bad outing against the hot-hitting Royals but expect a better start here versus this pathetic offense. In their last ten games the A’s are hitting just .197 against right-handed starters and scoring an average of 3.21 runs/9 innings in that span. Houston should bounce back here and have been “money” when coming off a loss winning 72% of their games by an average of +1.5 runs per game. Houston is +11 total hits in the two games of this series and will put up runs in this one. The Astros have the 11th best scoring offense in MLB at 4.57 runs/9 innings, rank 16th in team batting average, 4th in OPS and 3rd in homeruns. The Astros should put up runs versus the left-handed Cole as Houston is hitting .284 versus Lefties their last ten games, scoring 6.20 runs/9 innings. In their last ten games overall, the Astros are outscoring their opponents by 2.80 runs/9 innings. Fade the horrible hitting A's in this one and back a Houston team that can dominate at the plate. |
|||||||
07-09-22 | Angels v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8.5 L.A. Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles, 4 PM ET - The Angels are struggling at the plate right now with a .200 team batting average their last five games and an average of 2.60 runs/9 innings. Going back even further the Angels are hitting just .190 their last ten games and averaging 2.70 runs/9 innings. L.A. is 25th in runs scored per 9 innings this season, 25th in hitting, 18th in OPS and as a team they strike out 9.82 times per game which is last in the Bigs. It won’t come easy today for the struggling Angel hitters facing Dean Kremer who is 2-1 on the season with a 2.48 ERA and 129 WHIP. The right-handed Kremer should shut down an Angels lineup that is hitting .195 as a team against righties in their last ten games. Baltimore doesn’t have great overall numbers on the season with an offense that is 22nd in runs/9 innings at 4.20, 27th in team batting average at .231 25th in OPS and 27th in strikeouts. Baltimore will have a tough time producing runs against the left-handed starter Sandoval for the Angels who is 3-3 on the year with a 3.09 ERA. The O’s are hitting just .194 and scoring 2.60 runs/9 innings against Lefties their last ten games. Combined these two teams are on a 6-11 Under streak with both teams averaging below 8 total runs per game in their last ten. |
|||||||
07-08-22 | Guardians v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Cleveland Guardians vs KC Royals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We really like the way KC’s offense is performing right now. They just scored 22 runs in a 4 game series (5.5 RPG) vs Houston who has the best pitching staff in MLB right now. Over their last 10 games the Royals are hitting nearly .270 vs right handed pitchers and their games have averaged 9.7 total runs during that stretch. They’ll face Civale for Cleveland who has an ERA of 7.40 and opposing hitters have a batting average of .296. He’s been really poor in his 5 road starts this season with an ERA of almost 10.00! In his 5 road starts, the opponents have scored a total of 42 runs which is an average of 8.4 RPG. The Guardians are coming off a 4 games series in which they were swept @ Detroit and their pitching staff as a whole allowed 28 runs in that series (7 RPG) to the light hitting Tigers. Cleveland should have success offensively vs KC starter Singer who started the season very well but has fallen off as of late. Since the start of June Singer has an ERA of 5.70 and he’s allowed 46 baserunners in those 33 innings. He's also allowed 8 HR’s in those 33 innings and his ERA at home is nearly 5.00 on the season which is much higher than his road ERA. In his 1 meeting with Cleveland this season, Singer pitched 3 innings and allowed 4 ER’s for an ERA of 12.00. Dating back to last season, these 2 A.L. Central foes have averaged 9.9 total RPG over their last 10 meetings. We see a similar outcome tonight and we like the OVER. |
|||||||
07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Runs Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 PM ET - These same two teams recently meet and produced total runs of 11, 18 and 12 and we see more of the same starting today. In fact, these same two pitchers just squared off in that series and in that game the two teams produced 18 runs, pounded out 21 hits and stranded 12 total baserunners. Dallas Keuchel (Arizona) pitched 5 innings and allowed 6 hits and 6 earned runs. Austin Gomber (Colorado) lasted 5.2 innings, giving up 6 hits and 4 earned runs. Gomber is 4-7 on the season with a 6.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP and he won’t get much help from a Rockies bullpen which is the 3rd worst in MLB with a 4.75 ERA. Dallas Keuchel was 2-5 for the White Sox with a 7.88 ERA this season before being traded to the D’Backs recently. He is 0-1 for Arizona with a 9.64 ERA in 9.3 inning of work. Arizona has the 6th worst team ERA in the Bigs at 4.39. In their last ten games each, the Rockies games have averaged 9.50 runs per game while the D’Backs and opponents have averaged 11.60. Colorado has pounded left-handed starters of late with a .310 team batting average and 5.77 runs per game over their last ten. In Arizona’s last ten games overall they have combined to 9 or more runs eight times. Bet OVER here. |
|||||||
07-06-22 | Angels v. Marlins UNDER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#976/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - The Angels offense has fallen off a cliff as of late. In their last 4 games they have scored a grand total of 5 runs on 11 TOTAL hits! That’s an average of 1.25 runs on 2.75 hits per game their last 4. Going back further the Angels are averaging 2.6 RPG with a batting average of only .183 their last 10 games. LA will be facing left hander Rogers tonight and while his numbers haven’t been great this season, his xFIP and xERA are almost a full run less than his actual ERA while his BABIP is quite high at .317 telling his he’s been unlucky. The Angels have seen very little of Rogers in the past (just 4 total plate appearances) and they have struggled vs lefties ranking 24th in batting average (.229) while averaging just 3.6 RPG. Miami’s offense hasn’t been great either as of late averaging just 3.5 RPG over their last 10. They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 11 games. We don’t expect them to break out of their slump vs LA’s Ohtani who has been fantastic on the mound allowing just 1 ER in his last 4 starts spanning 27 innings. He’s striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings which is bad news for a Miami offense that K’s almost 9 times per 9 innings (26th in MLB). Last night Miami topped the Angels 2-1 and the teams combined for just 11 total hits. We see a similar outcome tonight and we grab the Under. |
|||||||
07-05-22 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - To start with both teams have favored the Under this season and most recently they are a combined 12-6 Under in their last 18 games. In fact, in both teams last ten games the Twins and their opponents have averaged 7.80 runs per game, the White Sox and their foes have averaged 8.20 RPG. The Twins send Chris Archer to the hill with his 2-3 overall record and 3.08 ERA. In his last four starts Archers has given up just 9 total hits and 3 earned runs in 17 innings of work. Michael Kopech has pitched better than his 2-5 record with a 2.78 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. In Kopech’s last ten starts the White Sox and opponents have topped 9 runs just three times. Minnesota is averaging 4.52 runs/9 innings (12th) while the White Sox are 21st in runs/9 innings at 4.24. The numbers also suggest a lower scoring game when it comes to these teams playing home/away facing right-handed starters (both righties here). Minnesota averages 4.79 runs per 9 innings when away from home, Chicago averages 3.62 runs/9 innings. |
|||||||
07-04-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
#970 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - We were on the red hot Astros -1.5 yesterday at home vs the Angels and picked up a 4-2 win. Houston has now won 14 of their last 17 games with 11 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. As we mentioned yesterday, their schedule during that stretch has been very tough as well including 9 games vs the Yankees & Mets. In their 3 games series vs the Angels, the Astros outscored LA 21-4 and had 33 hits to just 8 for LA. Houston has the top pitching staff in the Majors and today they bring Odorizzi off the DL to make his first start since mid May. He was solid prior to his injury allowing more than 3 ER’s just once in his 7 starts with a home ERA of 2.19. Odorizzi looked good in his 2 rehab starts in the Minors allowing 5 hits in 8 innings. We don’t expect him to pitch deep into this one but we’re fine with that as he is backed up by the top bullpen in MLB with an ERA of 2.65. The Houston pitching staff as a whole has been fantastic all season long and especially as of late allowing 2 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 9 games. KC ranks 24th or lower in RPG, OPS, and HR per 9 innings so we don’t expect them to do much offensively in this game. Houston’s offense has kicked it into high gear averaging 5 RPG over their last and their average winning margin over that stretch is almost +3 RPG. They’ll face KC starter Heasley who has only 1 win on the season and has allowed 68 baserunners in just 45 innings. While Houston has the top bullpen in the league, KC has the 3rd worst bullpen ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP. KC is 19 games below .500 with a run differential of -99 on the season. Houston is 24 games above .500 with a run differential of +90 and playing their best baseball of the season. We’ll lay the -1.5 here. |
|||||||
07-03-22 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 1:37 PM ET - This will be the 5th game of the series with each team winning two of the four games. Tampa Bay took the double-header sweep yesterday with a 6-2 win and 11-5 victory. Both teams have used their bullpens extensively which means they’ll need strong outings from the starters, and we don’t see that happening in this one. Both teams have hot bats right now as they combined for 25 hits in Game 2 yesterday and 18 in Game 1. The night before they belted out 20 hits in their 11-run game. The opening game of the series had just 5 runs scored but they had 14 total hits and should have produced at least 7 runs in that game. Shane Baz will get the start for Tampa Bay and in 4 starts he is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA with three of those four contests finishing with 8 or more runs. In his two road starts he has a 5.40 ERA. Baz may be in trouble against this Jays lineup that is hitting .282 against right-handed starters their last ten games and scoring an average of 6.40 runs/9 innings. The Blue Jays will counter with Ross Stripling who is 4-2 on the season with a 3.12 ERA. In the last three games Stripling has started the Rays and their opponents have scored 11, 14 and 15 total runs. Without strong bullpens we should see plenty of runs in this one. |
|||||||
07-02-22 | Rangers +120 v. Mets | Top | 7-3 | Win | 120 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas +115 over NY Mets, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We’re getting the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen as a money line underdog in this one. Perez has been great all season for the Rangers with an ERA of 2.22 and he has allowed just 2 HR’s in 92 IP this season. He has allowed more than 3 ER’s just 2 times in his 15 starts this season. He’s facing a NYM lineup that is struggling right now. They have won just 4 of their last 10 games and their batting average during that stretch is just .210. The Mets are averaging only 3 RPG over their last 10 and for the season they are putting up 0.8 fewer runs per game vs left handers. We think they struggle with Perez today. Williams will start for NY and he’s mainly a reliever that has been pushed into a starting role at times this season. His record is just 1-4 on the season and over his last 3 appearances his ERA is 4.15 and his WHIP is 1.62. We feel Texas is a bit undervalued right now as they have a losing record but a plus run differential. They are also better on the road this season with a .500 record away from home and they are outscoring opponents 4.6 – 4.0 on the road this season. We like the Rangers as a dog with their top starter on the mound today. |
|||||||
07-01-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 19-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 7PM ET - We are not ready to lay a big price with the Brewers and Burnes here but we will bet the value of the run line. Burnes is Milwaukee’s best pitcher with a 6-4 record, 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the season. In his last 4 starts he is 3-1, having allowed a total of 6 earned runs in 24.3 innings of work. Burnes on the road this season has been nearly unhittable with a 3-1 record and 1.64 ERA. Milwaukee also has one of the better bullpens in the Bigs so after a strong start by Burnes they’ll close the door on a Pirates team that is 28th in runs/9 innings, 28th in team batting average, 28th in OPS. Yesterday the Brewers pounded out more hits (12) than the Pirates but got a horrible start from Houser in their 7-8 loss. The Pirates are sending Contreras to the Hill who is 2-1 on the season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. In his last four starts Contreras has allowed 8 earned runs in 18.3 innings of work. Most recently he had some control issues against Tampa Bay with 5 walks. Milwaukee is 13th in runs/9 innings, 14th in OPS and 4th in homeruns. Milwaukee scores more than 1 full run per game against right-hander starters than the Pirates do and Pittsburgh is 27th in the league in total run differential at minus -100 on the season. After a loss yesterday we like Milwaukee to bounce back here big. |
|||||||
06-30-22 | Reds +111 v. Cubs | Top | 7-15 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds +110 over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Reds have had a solid road trip with a 3-2 record including taking 2 of 3 @ San Francisco. These 2 have split the first 2 games of this series and we like Cincinnati to take the finale. Despite the split thus far, the Reds have outhit the Cubs in both games piling up 24 hits so far in this series. We like the pitching match up here for Cincinnati with Ashcraft on the mound, a pitcher that none of the Cubs hitters have ever seen. Ashcraft was called up in late May and allowed just 3 ER’s through his first 4 starts. He then had a few rough outings but impressed us last week when he bounced back and pitched great @ San Francisco (8 IP, 2 ER’s, and 8 strikeouts). His ERA on the season is 3.27 and his xERA is actually a bit lower at 3.23. He’s make 7 starts this year and the Reds have won 6 of those games. We look for Cincinnati’s offense to have solid success today vs Cubs starter Hendricks. They faced him a month ago and put up 4 runs in 4 innings. The Cincinnati hitters should also be very comfortable facing Hendricks as they’ve had well over 100 plate appearances vs him with a lifetime BA of .328. Hendricks has won just 1 game at home this season and his ERA is north of 5.00. Both bullpens are poor (bottom 5 in MLB) so that’s a crapshoot but we expect Cincinnati to have a cushion heading into the late innings. Since starting the season 3-22, the Reds have actually played near .500 baseball with a record of 23-26 their last 49. The Cubs, on the other hand, are just 14-26 over their last 40 games and their home field advantage has been non-existent with an identical record of 14-26 this year at Wrigley. Take the Reds tonight as a slight money line underdog. |
|||||||
06-29-22 | Padres -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego -130 over Arizona, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - San Diego just swept Arizona last week at home in a 3 games series outscoring the DBacks 17-7. In last night’s game, the Padres led 6-0 entering the bottom of the 7th and Arizona rallied very late for a 7-6 win vs a normally solid San Diego bullpen. We expect the much better team to bounce back this afternoon with a win. The Padres are 14 games above .500 and have the 3rd best run differential in the N.L. at +63. They are also 24-15 on the road this season. Arizona is 7 games below .500 and they have a run differential of -47, 6th worst in the N.L. The DBacks have a losing home record and are getting outscored 4.5-3.9 per game at Chase Field. Arizona starter Bumgarner has an ERA of 3.72 but hasn’t pitched as well as that might indicate with an xERA of 4.67 and an xFIP of 4.75. San Diego has been much better vs lefties compared to right handers this season especially on the road where they average almost 6 RPG vs south paws. They faced Bumgarner at home last week and put up 6 runs on 9 hits in just 4 innings in a 10-4 win. Clevinger gets the start for the Padres and he’s been solid as a stater allowing just 4 ER’s in his 4 starts this year. That includes a game vs Arizona last week in which he allowed 1 ER in 4 innings of work. We look for Clevinger to go 4 or 5 innings and then San Diego’s bullpen (top 10 in ERA and #1 in MLB in WHIP) takes over with a chance to redeem themselves after last night’s debacle. We’ll take the much better team in a bounce back spot at a fairly low money line number. |
|||||||
06-28-22 | Reds v. Cubs -113 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs -113 vs. Cincinnati Reds, 8 PM ET - We recently played on Thompson and the Cubs when they faced the Yankees in New York and he was shelled early for 5 runs in the 1st inning. Since then he has pitched 12 strong innings, allowing 6 total hits and 1 earned run. He is especially good at home with a 4-0 record and a 1.50 ERA. The Reds will counter with Castillo who has had two bad starts in a row allowing 7 earned runs in 12 innings of work against the Dodgers and D’Backs. When we factor in current hitting metrics for both teams this sets up for a solid win by the home team Cubs. In the Reds last ten games vs. righties they are hitting just .216 with 3.86 runs/9innings. The Cubs in their last 10 vs. right-handed starters are hitting .260 as a team with 4.4 runs/9innings. Back the Cubbies at home with the dominant pitcher on the mound. |
|||||||
06-27-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 7 PM ET - Two of the best offenses in the Bigs square off Monday in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. The Sox rank top 5 in runs/9 innings, team batting average and OPS. Boston has averaged 4.81 runs per game this season but in their last ten games they’ve upped that to 5.10. Toronto’s offense ranks in the top nine in runs/9 innings at 4.77, 4th in team average (.255), 3rd OPS, 5th in home runs and 9th in strikeouts. Much like the Red Sox the Jays scoring is up in their last ten games as they average 5.30 runs/9innings which has led to a 9-1 Over streak. The Red Sox will send Connor Seabold to the mound who has yet to make a Big League start this season and he couldn’t be in a worse situation facing this red-hot Blue Jays lineup on the road. The Jays have Kevin Gausman slated to start and while he has decent overall numbers with a 3.19ERA, he has given up 7 earned runs in his last 8.1 innings of work, both games the Jays lost with 12 and 13 runs being scored. Plenty of runs in this one! |
|||||||
06-26-22 | Avalanche -114 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Money Line -115 over Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET - This Avalanche team that lost Game 5 on home ice will bounce back here. That is the kind of loss strong teams bounce back from and certainly the Avs have been the stronger team in terms of how they match up with Tampa Bay in this series. Looking at the shots on goal statistics throughout this series, Colorado continues to be the better of the two teams in generating offense as they have registered 41 more shots on goal in the 5 games thus far and have only been outshot in one of the games. The Avalanche, prior to the Game 5 loss, had won an incredible 15 of their 18 playoff games this season. Also, Colorado started the post-season with a win that was off a loss in their regular season finale. This team knows how to respond off defeat and has won their next game all 3 times this post-season when coming off a loss. The Avalanche set up well for a big bounce back here at a solid money line price because they are on the road here and that keeps the price manageable. Colorado has been a "road warrior" throughout post-season as they have won 8 of their 9 contests away from home. Road team keeps coming up in the modeling run from this one per our computer math model. Look for the Avalanche to hoist the Stanley Cup on Tampa Bay ice by the time the final horn sounds on this one. Lay the short money line price with road favorite Colorado as it is a big value play here. |
|||||||
06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - We were on the Giants at home last night (-1.5 runs) and they lost to the Reds 4-2. Tonight we get them in a great spot, off a home loss, facing a poor pitcher, and SF has their top pitcher on the mound. Despite that, we’re getting a very similar price at -1.5 Runs (-115) when last night was right around even money at -1.5. Logan Webb has been outstanding for the Giants with an ERA of 3.26 and an xFIP of 3.15. At home he’s been even better with a 4-1 record and a 2.74 ERA. He’s facing a Cincinnati offense that struggles big time on the road with a batting average of just .211 while scoring only 3 RPG (the Reds average 6 RPG at home). On top of that, the Cincinnati lineup is very unfamiliar with Webb with only 11 total plate appearances (0 hits) giving Webb a big advantage especially early in the game. Despite last night’s win, the Reds have still lost 7 of their last 8 games and have a road record of 12-23. Cincy sends left hander Minor to the mound and he’s been poor this season. He has an ERA of 6.97 and opponents are hitting .271 vs him. The Reds are 1-3 in his 4 starts this season and he’s allowed 7 HR’s already in just 4 appearances for an average of 3 HR’s per 9 innings pitched which is terrible. He’s facing a SF offense that is 4th in MLB in RPG, 10th in HR’s per 9 innings, and 11th in OPS so this is not a good match up for Minor. When Minor is done for the evening, the Reds back him up with a bullpen that has the worst ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP in the Majors. The Reds road RPG differential is -1.9 on the season so laying 1.5 is not a stretch here. San Fran sits 6 games above .500 and has a run differential of +40 on the season while Cincinnati is 22 games below .500 and has a differential of -77. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants. |
|||||||
06-25-22 | A's v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Oakland A’s @ Kansas City Royals, 4:10 PM ET - Two of the worst run producing teams in the Big Leagues face off Saturday and we don’t see either team scoring many runs here. The A’s produce just 3.15 runs/9 innings which is 2nd to last in MLB. They are the worst hitting team at .208, 30th in OPS and 29th in home runs. Kansas City isn’t much better averaging 3.92 runs/9 innings with the 21st worst team average at .237, 25th OPS ranking and rank 28th in home runs. In their last thirteen games the A’s and their opponents have scored more than 9.5 runs just three times. In the Royals last ten games they have combined for over 9 runs with their opponent just once. Oakland really struggles to hit right-handed starters with a .201 team average and 2.73 runs per game. The Royals starter Keller has pitched better than his 1-8 record would indicate and he’s coming off his best game of the season which was against this same A’s team. Keller pitched 7 strong innings versus the A’s allowing just 1 hit and 0 earned runs in the Royals 2-0 win. Jared Koenig will take the mound for the A’s with a 1-2 record on the season and a 6.59 ERA. Koenig has inflated numbers with two of his starts coming against the Red Sox and Braves who are 5th and 8th in runs scored per game. His best outing of the season came against this Royals team when he pitched 5.2 innings allowing 0 earned runs and just 2 hits. The numbers don’t add up and we can’t see either team scoring many runs in this setting. |
|||||||
06-24-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
#960 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Cincinnati, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Giants are back home after losing 3 of 4 @ Atlanta. However, all 3 losses in that series were by 1 run and San Francisco actually outhit the Braves and had more men on base despite coming up short in 3 of 4 games. Alex Cobb is on the hill for the Giants and he is pitching well above what his ERA might indicate. His ERA is 5.62 on the season yet his xERA is 2.25 and his xFIP is 2.64 which is the lowest of any starting pitcher on the slate for Friday. He’s been extremely unlucky with a BABIP of .381 and his overall numbers at home are much better than his road numbers. Cincinnati enters this game having lost 7 straight including 6 in a row in their recent home stand. They have allowed an average of over 7 RPG during that 7 games stretch and they’ve given up at least 5 runs in each of those games. Ashcraft gets the call for Cincinnati. The rookie has solid overall numbers but he’s on the decline right now. Over his last 2 starts he’s allowed 10 ER’s in just 9.2 innings on 17 hits. The Giants saw him in late May so they should have a good feel at the plate tonight. When Ashcraft exits, the Reds have the worst bullpen ERA in the Majors and the 2nd worst WHIP. The Giants also have an edge at the plate where they rank 4th in MLB in RPG and put up over 5 RPG at home. The Reds are a night and day difference home and away at the plate. At home they average 6 RPG and on the road just 3 RPG to go along with their 11-23 road record. Their road RPG differential is -2 on the season. On the season San Fran has a run differential of +42 while Cincinnati’s is -79. There is a reason this line opened -180 and jumped to above -200 despite Ashcraft having better ERA number than Cobb, who is drastically undervalued. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants. |
|||||||
06-24-22 | Nationals v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers, 8 PM ET - Washington will start reliever Paolo Espino and then go with a bullpen mentality throughout this game. Espino has started two games and pitched 8.2 innings while allowing 7 total hits and 3 earned runs. The Nats bullpen is ranked 6th worst in the league with an 4.49ERA, 1.39 WHIP and they’ve give up the 3rd most homeruns on the season at 39 which is bad news facing Texas. The Rangers offensive numbers aren’t great as they rank 17th in runs/9 innings at 4.43 and have a team average of .236 but they are 7th in home runs at 1.23 p/game. Texas is sending right-handed Dane Dunning to the hill who is 1-5 on the season with a 4.38ERA. Dunning has allowed 5 earned runs in 3 of his last five starts, 4 or more four times. We should see the Nationals scoring gradually go up as they are 8th in team average at .252 but average just 4.17 runs/9 innings which is 22nd. In each teams last ten games they have combined with their opponents to average over 9.5 runs per game. We like Over 9 in this one. |
|||||||
06-23-22 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9 runs Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - The Orioles are coming off a rain suspended game in Washington and are in a tough travel situation here. The good news is last night’s starter for the O’s, Tyler Wells, pitched 5 strong innings so the bullpen essentially had the night off if they are needed here. That may not be the case as Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the mound who is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and one of his starts was against the Guardians who are 10th in the Big Leagues in scoring. The White Sox are 20th in runs per/9 innings and really struggle against right-handed pitchers with a .242 team average but they average just 3.77 runs per game against righties. Chicago will send Johnny Cueto to the hill who is much better than his 0-3 record. Cueto has a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and he’s faced a brutal schedule with games against four teams (of six) that rank in the top half of the league in runs/9 innings. Baltimore will have a tough time scoring here with a lineup that hits just .225 against right-handers on the season, just .180 their last five games with an average of 2.70 runs per game. Both teams struggle to score runs overall and the current pitching matchup sets up for a solid Under wager. |
|||||||
06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Angels -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - KC won the first 2 games of this series, each by a single run. This game will end KC’s tough west coast trip with their 9th road game in 10 days before they head home to play Oakland on Friday. The Angels bats got hot with 11 runs yesterday but they lost with Detmers on the mound. LA has now lost 6 straight with Detmers as the starting pitcher. If they can keep their bats hot today vs a mediocre KC pitcher, the Angels should be sitting great with Ohtani on the mound. He’s been their most consistent starter with an ERA of 3.28 and an xFIP of just 2.92, the lowest xFIP of any starting pitcher on Wednesday. He’s allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. KC will have a much tougher time offensively tonight against Ohtani who has averaged 11.5 K’s per 9 innings while walking just over 2 batters. We look for LA’s bats to put up solid numbers again tonight facing Daniel Lynch who has the 5th highest xFIP of any starting pitcher today and an ERA of 5.19. Lynch is coming off a solid start, however that was vs the weak hitting A’s (worst hitting team in MLB). In his 3 starts prior to that, he allowed 16 ER’s in just 15 innings allowing a whopping 29 baserunners during that 3 game stretch! If he struggles, which we expect, the bullpen is never much help for KC. They have the 3rd worst ERA and worst WHIP in MLB. Overall, KC’s pitching staff ranks in the bottom 5 in ERA, batting average allowed, OBP allowed, and OPS allowed. Because of that weak pitching staff, the Royals need to score runs to have a chance. In fact, in their 25 wins this year (25-42 record) they have averaged 5.7 RPG. That won’t happen tonight vs Ohtani and the Angels. LA prevents what would be an embarrassing sweep at home vs KC and wins this one by at least 2 runs. |
|||||||
06-21-22 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 RUNS L.A. Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 PM ET - It all starts with pitching in this match up with a pair of solid starters in Tyler Mahle for the Reds and Tony Gonsolin for the Dodgers. Gonsolin is unbeaten this season at 8-0 with a 1.42 ERA and even though is xFIP is elevated at 3.68, the Reds don’t have a lineup capable of taking advantage. Cincinnati is 16th in runs per game on the season at 4.35, but in their last three games they have produced just 3.33 runs/per game. As a team the Reds hit just .232 against right-handed starters this season, they rank 22nd in overall OPS at .686 and are 18th in strikeouts per game. The Dodgers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 5.02 but recently they’ve struggled to put up runs at 3.67 in their most recent three games. Mahle has pitched better than his 2-5 record and 4.46 ERA. His xERA is 3.23 and his xFIP is 3.83. He has pitched four strong games in a row allowing 4 total earned runs in 27.2 innings of work. In Gonsolin’s last five starts he’s allowed 4 total earned runs and pitched a pair of shutouts with all five games staying below the total. Both teams are missing some key offensive personnel and with reliable starters we can’t see this game getting to 10 runs. |
|||||||
06-19-22 | Rangers -145 v. Tigers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Texas Rangers -140 over Detroit Tigers, Sunday 1:40 PM ET - Detroit will come back to earth after their 14 run game against the Rangers on Saturday. The Tigers offense is the worst in the Majors ranking 30th in Runs/9 innings, 27th in team average of .219, 30th in OPS and 30th in home runs per game. Prior to Saturday the Tigers had not scored 5 or more runs in 35 straight games. The Rangers will send right-hander Dane Dunning to the mound who doesn’t have great overall numbers at 1-4 with a 4.04 ERA but his two most recent losses came against Houston and Cleveland, a pair of teams with a combined 73 wins on the season. Detroit hits just .206 against righties on the season and average 2.52 runs per game. Texas should light-up Tigers starter Drew Hutchison who is 0-4 on the year with a 4.58ERA. In games that Hutchison has started the Tigers are 2-8 SU on the year. The Rangers bounce back here! |
|||||||
06-18-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Aaron Nola is on the hill for the Phillies and he’s been outstanding all season. His ERA is 3.48 but his xERA and xFIP are much lower telling us he’s pitching even better than his already solid ERA. He averages 10 K’s per 9 innings and just 1 walk so baserunners will be few for the Nationals on Saturday. Nola has faced current Washington hitters for nearly 100 career plate appearances and held them to a batting average of only .190. The Washington offense ranks 22nd in RPG, 20th in OPS, and 28th in HR’s. At home they average just 3.7 RPG and vs right handers that drops to 3.0 RPG. Gray is on the hill for the Nats and while he’s pitched better over his last few games he’s been a bit lucky to keep his ERA at 4.33. His FIP is 5.43 and he’s stranded 83% of the batters which have reached base which is well above the league average of 70% meaning his ERA could be quite a bit higher had he not gotten a bit lucky with his LOB% numbers. His ERA at home is north of 7.00 and he’s struggled with control walking over 4 per 9 innings. Gray gives up a ton of HR’s (2 per 9 innings) which is a terrible match up vs this red hot Philadelphia offense that is 3rd in MLB averaging 1.33 HR’s per game. The Phillies have won 14 of their last 16 games and over the last 10 they have a batting average of .289 while averaging 6 RPG. Philly has won 10 straight games vs the Nationals and 12 of the last 13 in Washington. We like the Phillies to win this one by 2+ runs vs the struggling Nationals who have an 11-24 record at home this season. |
|||||||
06-17-22 | White Sox +146 v. Astros | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#921 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox +145 over Houston Astros, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Chicago offense has been rolling up big numbers as of late scoring nearly 7 RPG over their last 10. They just outscored the Tigers 27-6 in their 3 game sweep and they’ve scored at least 8 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. They are the #1 hitting team in MLB vs left handers and they face southpaw Valdez tonight for Houston. The Sox rank 1st in batting average vs lefties at .294, 1st in OPS, and average 6.5 RPG on the season. Over their last 10 games, Chicago has put up 11.5 RPG vs left handers! Valdez has solid numbers this year but current Sox hitters have had his number with a lifetime batting average of .302 in 70+ plate appearances. Giolito takes the mound for Chicago. He’s been very good this year with an ERA 3.88 but his xFIP is 3.27 which is actually lower than Valdez. Giolito has been unlucky as well with a BABIP of .352 so he’s absolutely pitching better than his already solid ERA might indicate. He’s faced current Houston hitters more than 100 plate appearances and held them to a batting average of just .204. Houston has a very good 39-24 record, however they haven’t been very good offensively (20th in RPG & 21st in batting average) and their overall run differential at home is just 3.7-3.2. Chicago has a been better on the road with a 17-14 record and they’ve outscored their opponents away from home this season. We think this is a great spot for a significant underdog to pick up a win. |
|||||||
06-17-22 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET - Let’s face it, the Braves may score enough runs to push this game Over the number. Atlanta has been on fire with 14 straight wins and the offense has been sensational. The Braves have scored 42 runs in their last five games alone and have averaged 7.21PPG during this winning streak. Atlanta is 7th in runs/9 innings at 4.84, 11th in team average at .249 and 1st in OPS and 2nd in home runs at 1.53 per game. The Braves should have plenty of scoring opportunities against Cubs starter Keegan Thompson who has struggled in 3 straight starts, most recently giving up 5 runs to the Yankees in one inning of work. The Cubs pitchers have allowed 6, 19, 12, 4, 18 and 8 runs in their last six games. The Cubs should also get their fair share of scoring opportunities against Charlie Morton of the Braves who is 4-3 on the year with an ERA of 5.67. In his last four starts Morton has allowed a total of 16 runs, 24 hits in 20.1 innings of work. Chicago has scored 14 total runs in their last three games and should contribute enough in this game to push this Over the number. |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 6 @ 9 PM ET - It obviously didn’t work in Game 5 but we will stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are now 12-2 SU/ATS their last fourteen off a loss and a near perfect 7-1 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Boston was 28-13 SU at home during the regular season with the 5th best average point differential of +7PPG. We don’t feel the Celtics will succumb to the pressures of this situation as they have too many good players that can step up in any given situation. The Warriors are 4-5 SU on the road in the playoffs and they weren’t a great road team in the regular season with a 22-19 SU record and a +/- of 1.2PPG. Granted, Steph Curry is not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes in this game as he did in the last, but the Celtics defense will again provide a stiff challenge and make every point tough to come by. This is going to be a 7-game series and we like the Celtics to get a double-digit win in this one. |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Brewers v. Mets -125 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Mets -125 vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 7:10 PM ET - The Mets have been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-9 record and the 2nd best total run differential in the Big Leagues at +49 runs. The Mets offense is one of the best in MLB ranking 2nd in runs per 9 innings, 1st in overall average (.263) and 6th in OPS at .740. New York will send Tylor Megill to the mound who is 4-2 on the season with a 4.50ERA. The Mets had won 5 straight games with Megill as the starter before two bad outings in his two most recent starts. The Brewers struggling offense doesn’t pose much of a threat in this game and we like Megill to get back on track. Milwaukee is averaging 4.41 runs/9 innings which ranks 16th in the league and have a team batting average of .231 which is 25th. Milwaukee is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games and they’ve been shutout four times in that stretch and scored 4 or less runs nine times. Ashby has pitched well in spots for Milwaukee but he is coming off 4.2 innings of work against Washington in which he gave up 13 hits and 6 earned runs. The Brewers got a big win yesterday but had their best pitcher on the mound in Burnes who allowed just 5 hits. In a game we may only need 4 runs to win we like the much better offense of the Mets. |
|||||||
06-15-22 | Twins -135 v. Mariners | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -135 over Seattle, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - The Twins are coming off a 5-0 loss here last night and we expect a bounce back. They’ve been solid coming off a loss winning over 60% of their games this year in that situation winning by an average score of 5.2-3.9. Seattle is in the opposite situation here as they have struggled to win just 37% of their games coming off a win this season. Minnesota send their ace Sonny Gray to the mound this afternoon. He’s coming off the DL after a pectoral strain but seems to be fine after throwing a simulated game over the weekend. He’s been fabulous this season holding opposing hitters to a batting average of .187 with a WHIP of 0.98. He’s averaging 10.5 K’s per 9 innings which walking just 2.5. Over his last 5 starts he’s struckout 34 batters while allowing just 7 walks. Gray has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any start this season. Gonzales is the starter for Seattle and while his overall ERA is solid at 3.63 he is due for some serious regression. His xERA is over 5.00 and his xFIP is nearly 5.00 telling us he is not pitching as well as his ERA might indicate. Unlike Gray, his K to walk ratio is not good (5.5 to 3.5) and current Minnesota hitters have a lifetime batting average of .350 vs Gonzales. The Twins have the much better overall offense here ranking in the top 8 in both batting average and OPS. The M’s were a bit lucky yesterday scoring 5 runs on just 6 hits and we like Minnesota to bounce back and pick up the win in today’s series finale before their day off tomorrow. |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 run -105 vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - The Jays have been one of the best hitting teams in the Big Leagues this season with an average of 8.49 hits per game. In their last three games the Blue Jays have pounded out an average of 11.67 hits per game which includes 19 hits last night against the O’s. In their last nine games the Jays have scored 6 or more runs seven times while averaging 7.2 runs per game. Toronto has a top 10 offense in terms of runs scored per 9 innings, team batting average .257, rank 2nd in OPS and 8th in home runs. Conversely, Baltimore averages just 4.05 runs per 9 innings which ranks 25th in the league, hit .230 as a team (26th) and are 25th in OPS. The Orioles also strike out 9.13 times per game which is 26th in the Bigs. Baltimore will send Lyles to the mound to slow down the Jays offense, but we don’t see that happening. Lyles has given up 10 earned runs in his last ten innings of work on 17 hits and that was against Kansas City and Seattle who both rank in the bottom half of MLB in hits per game. Toronto has Yusei Kikuchi scheduled to take the bump for the Jays, who hasn’t been great with a 2-2 record, but the Lefty should have success against this O’s team that is hitting just .230 against Lefties this season and averaging just 3.66 runs/9 innings. Toronto has a +34-run differential on the year which ranks them 9th best in the league. Baltimore has a net differential of -38 runs on the season which is 21st. |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Twins v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota vs Seattle, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these teams were shutout yesterday which gives us some value here. We have this total set closer to 9 with our power ratings. Prior to yesterday’s 6-0 loss vs Tampa Bay, the Twins were averaging almost 7 RPG their prior 8 contests. Before Sunday’s 2-0 loss vs Boston, the Mariners were averaging almost 5 RPG their previous 9 games. Both teams are averaging more than 8.5 total RPG this season in their contests and over the last 10 games Minnesota games are averaging 11.6 total RPG and Seattle games are averaging 9.2 total RPG. Each starter is due for a regression as their ERA’s are lower than both their xERA’s and xFIP’s. Minnesota’s Archer has an xFIP of 5.10 and Seattle’s Flexen has an xFIP of 4.98 which is a solid indicator that neither is pitching as well as their actual ERA’s might indicate. Current players on both teams are hitting over .300 lifetime vs each of these 2 starting pitchers. Flexen has faced Minnesota once this season and allowed 3 ER’s in 4 innings allowing 5 hits and 3 walks. Archer has not faced Seattle yet this season. Both bullpens rank in the bottom half of MLB in ERA and Minnesota relievers have allowed the 2nd most HR’s this season (36) while the Seattle bullpen has allowed the 4th most (32). We like this game to get to at least 9 total runs. |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +4 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Steph Curry is great! He literally carried the Warriors to a win in Game 4 with 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting overall and 7 of 14 from Deep. Those types of numbers are tough to duplicate no matter how good you are, and we just don’t see his supporting cast stepping up enough in this one to get a cover. The amazing stat of this series is this, despite every game being decided by 9 or more points, the total points scored by both teams is 422 to 421. This game is going to be tight to the end as both know the winner of this game is more than likely going to win the series. We must stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are 12-1 SU/ATS their last thirteen off a loss and a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Now this doesn’t mean we are backing Boston to win here, but it’s a clear indicator of just how good they are off a loss. The Celtics are 16-3-1 ATS their last twenty on the road and they owned the best average point differential in the NBA during the regular season at +7.6PPG. I know some guys will be on the Moneyline here with Boston and I don’t disagree with the assessment but I can’t ignore the points as Golden State may win but it’s going to be close. |
|||||||
06-12-22 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-18 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Yankees, 1:35 PM ET - Granted the Yankees are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 4.90 runs per game but the Cubs are 18th at 4.29 runs per game and this situation warrants an Under wager. It all starts with the pitchers slated to take the bump here with Keegan Thompson for the Cubs and Jameson Taillon. Taillon is 6-1 on the season with 62.2 innings pitched and in three of his last four starts he’s gone 7 or more innings. He has a season ERA of 2.73 and has allowed more than 3 runs just one time this season which was his last outing so expect a focused effort here. What makes Taillon especially hard to score runs on is his base-on-balls percentage of .86 which is one of the better averages in the Big Leagues. The Cubs will counter with Thompson who is also 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 3.17 and WHIP of 1.14. Chicago has really struggled to score runs of late averaging just 2.2 runs per game in their last five games and hitting just .092 with runners in scoring position. Over the course of 3-games, the Cubs currently have the worst team hits per run scored 5.25. At that current rate, if the Cubs get their average hits per game of 8.16 they’ll score under 2 runs in this one. We like a lower scoring game here. Bet UNDER. |
|||||||
06-11-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Phillies are red hot. They’ve won 8 straight and their bats have been smoking to say the least. During their 8 game winning streak they’ve reached at least 6 runs 7 times and they are averaging 7.5 RPG during that stretch. If they get anywhere near that today they should cover this 1.5 easily as the Phillies have their top pitcher Wheeler on the mound. He’s allowed just 6 ER’s in his last 6 starts and while his ERA of 3.14 is very good, his xERA 2.83 and his FIP is 2.30 telling us he’s pitching better than his actual ERA this season. He’s been very unlucky with a BABIP (batting average balls in play) of .338 and has very solid numbers despite that. Arizona’s offense ranks 24th in RPG, 29th in batting average and 22nd in OPS. They are just 3-5 on their current 8 game road trip despite playing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the first 7 games of that stretch. They’ve averaged just over 4 RPG on this road trip but they’ve been very fortunate as they are averaging just 6.75 hits per game on this road trip. Philly will be facing Bumgarner for Arizona and after a hot start to the season he has been struggling to say the least. After allowing just 4 ER’s in his first 5 starts, Bumgarner has given up 18 ER’s in his last 5 outings. He’s allowed 41 baserunners in his last 29 innings so we look for the Phillies red hot bats to have plenty of opportunities in this game. In yesterday’s game, Philadelphia scored 6 runs in the first 2 innings vs Arizona ace Zach Gallen who had allowed more than 2 ER’s just ONCE all season. The Phillies are 29-29 on the season yet have a run differential of +36. Arizona is 28-32 with a run differential of -44. We think Arizona will struggle offensively today vs Wheeler while Philly will continue their onslaught at the plate. Lay the 1.5 runs (-115) in this game. |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 214 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics, Game 4 9 PM ET - Two of the three meetings have finished with more than tonight’s Total posted by Vegas and we like that trend to continue in Game 4. More money and tickets are coming in on the Under here, yet the line has trickled up which tells us to follow the move. In Game 3 the pace of play and shooting had the game on pace for a Total near 230 at the end of the 3rd quarter but then the Warriors couldn’t make a shot in the 4th. Golden State scored just 11-points in the final quarter on 5 of 15 shooting including 1-8 performance from the 3-point line. Golden State shot 46% overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Klay Thompson finally found his stroke scoring 25-points. Boston had 3 players score 20+ and haven’t had problems hunting shots against the Warriors in two of the three games where they shot 51% in Game 1 and 48% in Game 3. The Celtics averaged 110PPG at home this season and held the 12th best offensive efficiency rating at home. The Warriors have been the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs at 1.160-points per possession. Our model is projecting 221 total points in this game. Bet OVER. |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Cubs v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’ll lay -1.5 runs (-120) with the Yanks here who have the largest run differential in MLB at +104 which equates to an average score of 4.9 – 3.0. At home they’ve beaten teams by an average of 2 RPG and over their last 10 games their margin of victory is +3.1 RPG. NY has the best record in the Majors at 41-16 and at home they are 23-7. They are red hot offensively right now averaging 6.5 RPG over their last 10 and they’ve gotten to at least 10 runs in 3 of their last 6 games. They’ll face Cubs left hander Miley in this one who is just coming off they DL with a bad shoulder. He’s pitched in only 3 games this season and while his ERA is 3.38 his xFIP is much higher indicating he’s due for a regression. The Cubs step into this game 10 games under .500 and have lost 4 of their last 5 games. They are facing Yankee starter Severino who has an ERA of 2.95 but an xERA of 2.60 and NY has won 8 of the 10 games he has started with 7 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. NY has the much better bullpen as well in this game. They Yankees have dominated inferior opponents at home with a 69-26 record their last 95 vs teams with a losing record. The Cubs are just 21-47 their last 48 games overall vs a team with a winning record. We like NY to win this one by 2+ runs at home tonight. |
|||||||
06-09-22 | Rockies v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -124 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -1.5 on Run Line over Colorado, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies send left hander Gomber to the hill who has been a disaster as of late. In his last 2 starts, spanning 6.1 innings, he has allowed 17 ER’s on 17 hits! ON the road this season Gomber has an ERA of almost 7.00 and he’s won just 1 game away from home this year. SF has done well vs lefties averaging just under 6 RPG at home this season. They’ve also hit Gomber very well in the past as current Giant players have a lifetime average of .341 vs the left hander. When he exits, enter the 2nd worst bullpen in all of baseball with an ERA of 5.02. It’s not just the “thin air” in Denver that has caused the poor numbers from the Colorado relievers as their ERA away from home is worse than it is at Coors Field. The SF offense should have a field day at home this afternoon. The Giants will counter with Logan Webb who has a solid 3.82 ERA, however his xERA and xFIP are both lower meaning he’s actually pitching better than his current numbers. He’s a perfect 3-0 at home this season and the Giants have won 6 of his last 8 starts. Last year Webb was 11-3 with an ERA of 2.97 so he has been extremely solid for this team. He’s facing a Colorado team that has only 8 road wins all season which is tied for least in MLB. Their offense falls off a cliff on the road where they average just 3 RPG and only 2.7 RPG vs right handed pitchers. Colorado is getting beat by an average score of 5.5 – 3.0 on the road this season. They are also only 17-35 their last 52 trips to San Francisco. We like the Giants to roll in this one. |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 3 Wednesday 8 PM ET - If you spend any amount of time watching the “talking heads” on ESPN, TNT or the rest of the hype media, we recommend you don’t. I love how those guys, who aren’t held accountable when they lose, just spew predictions without consequences. Where I’m going is this, after a dominating Game 1 Boston win the so-called experts were saying the series was over, the Celtics were the much better team and going to win the series etc…Then Golden State crushes the C’s in Game 2 and they all flip-flop to the Warriors and are now predicting them to win again in Game 3. How about nobody over-reacts and looks at this objectively. We like Boston to bounce back after that humiliating loss and get a resounding win at home in Game 3. The Celts were 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with the 5th best average of Margin of Victory at +7PPG. Granted the Celtics are 5-4 SU in the postseason at home but overall they are 4-0 SU/ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +16.25PPG. On the year, the C’s are 26-12 SU off a loss, 12-5 SU at home off a loss, 10-7 ATS. Golden State has already lost 4 road games in the playoffs and were an unimpressive 22-19 SU away from home during the regular season with a +/- of +1.2PPG. We also like the fact Scott Foster will be officiating this game which means Draymond Green will be on a shorter leash than normal. Boston will have great energy at home tonight and win big. |
|||||||
06-08-22 | A's v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Oakland vs Atlanta, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - This total opened 9 which is very close to where we had our power ratings set at 8.7. Now it has moved up to 9.5 so we are getting nearly a full run of value according to our ratings so we’ll grab the Under here. Oakland continues to struggle on offense. After scoring 2 runs yesterday, they have now scored 2 runs or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games. The A’s offense ranks either 29th or 30th (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. They are facing a pitcher nobody on the Oakland roster has ever seen in Ian Anderson. He’s pitched better than his overall numbers this year as his ERA is 4.70 but his xERA is 3.63. Anderson had a 3.58 ERA for Atlanta last year in 24 starts which is very close to his xERA this year telling us that is about where he should be. Oakland will send rookie Jared Koenig to the hill for his first ever MLB appearance. His numbers for AAA Las Vegas have been very impressive with a 2.21 ERA and a K to walk ratio of 10.5 to 2.5 per 9 innings. He has allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of his last 5 starts for Vegas. We expect Atlanta to struggle offensively early on especially with none of their hitters having any experience vs Koenig. Over the last 10 games for each of these teams combined (20 games total) only 6 have gone Over 9 runs. The current total of 9.5 is set too high and we like the Under. |
|||||||
06-07-22 | A's v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta -1.5 on Run Line over Oakland, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Atlanta comes home off a red hot run @ Colorado sweeping the Rockies in a 4 games series and outscoring them 30-16. Oakland, on the other hand, has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their bats continue to struggle scoring 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. The A’s offense ranks either 29th or 30th (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. Those numbers won’t improve vs Atlanta’s Kyle Wright who has allowed 1 ER or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts. Wright has an ERA of 2.41 and is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of just .191. Not one hitter on Oakland’s roster as ever faced Wright giving him a big advantage in this game. While Oakland bats are ice cold, Atlanta’s hitters have been on a roll with a batting average of .280 scoring an average of 5.7 RPG over their last 10. They have been very solid vs lefties all season long averaging 5.2 RPG. They are facing left hander Irvin in this game and while his overall numbers look solid, he is due for a regression. Irvin’s ERA is 2.96, however his xERA is 5.06 and his xFIP is 4.39 which gives us an indication of how he’s actually pitching. His numbers on the road haven’t been anywhere near his home numbers with an ERA of 5.09 away from home this season. While Oakland’s current roster has never faced Wright, Atlanta’s roster has had huge success vs Irvin with a whopping .588 batting average in his career. We’re also backed up by the much better bullpen in this game (6th in ERA compared to Oakland 20th in ERA). We have the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and much hotter hitting team in this game. We’ll lay the 1.5 runs at -115. |
|||||||
06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Seattle vs Houston, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - These 2 A.L. West teams have already met 9 times with 6 going Under the total. Only once have they played a game this season that scored more than 9 runs and in 6 of the 9 meetings they’ve scored 7 or less. Their 9 meetings this season have averaged 6.3 total RPG. Javier is on the mound for Houston and he’s been lights out. In his 6 starts he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 5 and 1 ER or less 4 times. He completely shut down Seattle the only time he faced them this season not allowing a single ER in a Houston 4-0 win. His ERA at home this season is 0.38 with a WHIP of 0.72! The M’s counter with veteran Robbie Ray, who won the Cy Young award with Toronto last season, but he’s been up and down this year. However , he has allowed 4 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts and he has not faced Houston this season which is an advantage to him. On top of that, the Astros have really struggled vs left handed pitchers this year hitting just .212 while averaging only 2.9 runs per 9 innings. Houston has been a massive UNDER team this year with 39 Unders and just 15 Overs. Their bats aren’t great (21st in RPG) especially vs lefties as we mentioned but their pitching staff has been outstanding. They are 3rd overall in team ERA and they have the #1 bullpen in MLB with a 2.64 ERA. Dating back to the end of last season, Houston is now 45-16 to the UNDER! Seattle has a poor road record and they’ve struggled offensively away from home with a .225 batting average and 3.6 RPG. Seattle road games have averaged just barely 8 total RPG while Houston home games have averaged 6.4 total RPG. Over the last 10 games, Seattle is averaging less than 8 total RPG and Houston is averaging less than 7 total RPG. We look for another low scoring game tonight. |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 43 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - We are betting Under in Game 2. The Celtics made 13.3 3-pointers per game during the regular season and then exploded for 21 in Game 1. Overall, the Celtics shot 51% for the game and scored 40 points in the 4th quarter alone. We expect a regression in Game 2 and a trend back to the norm. Boston was 15th in the league in team field goal percentage at 46.6% and 14th in 3PT% ranking 14th. We certainly don’t see them shooting as well in Game 2 considering the Warriors were 2nd in team FG% defense at 43.8% and 3rd in 3PT% at 33.9%. Golden State was 39 of 88 from the field overall (44%) and 19 of 45 from Deep or 42%. Boston is going to make some defensive adjustments and do a better job of defending Curry who started red-hot in Game 1 before coach Kerr sat him for an extended amount of time in the 2nd quarter to cool him off. Let’s not forget, the Celtics allow the least number of points in the league, have the best field goal percentage defense and rank 1st defending the 3-point line. These two teams ranked 1st and 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.070-points per possession. This game is going to be a dog fight and we expect both teams to ratchet up their defensive intensity. Bet Under. |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
#41/42 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5.5 Goals +110 - New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET – The set-up here is ideal to expect plenty of goals. Lightning are down 2-0 in this series and need to respond on home ice. Trouble is they have had a very hard time stopping a relentless Rangers team that continues to pile up goals. Look for TB to join the goal-scoring party in this one. The Bolts most recent home game was a 2-0 win but each of their first 4 home playoff games before that one totaled at least 6 goals. The Lightning have averaged 4.3 goals in regulation time in their last 4 home games. Here they host the Rangers and it is essentially a do or die game as Tampa can not afford to go down 3 games to 0 in this series. Off back to back losses, Tampa Bay responds here. The Bolts are 3-1 and have averaged 4.3 goals in regulation time in this post-season when they are entering a game off a loss. So TB bounces back here and should be a solid win, right? Not so fast! The reason the play here is the over (rather than Tampa) is because there certainly is support for expecting the Bolts to come up big in the offensive zone but, at the same time, continuing to struggle to slow down a Rangers club playing with a ton of confidence. New York has scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in the 6 wins in their current 6-1 hot streak. The Rangers also have won 6 of last 7 against the Lightning. Game 2 fell just short of an over but the prior game totaled 8 goals and we should easily get to at least 6 here. Rangers goalie Shesterkin has a higher GAA on the road than at home and Lightning goalie Vasilevskiy has not been his typical consistent dominant self so far in this post-season. As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
#926 ASA PLAY ON Texas -125 over Seattle, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - Texas starting pitcher Martin Perez has been one of the top pitchers in MLB this season. His ERA is 1.42 and he has not allowed a single HR in 10 starts. After allowing 3 ER’s in each of his first 2 starts back in mid April, Perez has allowed only 4 ER’s in his last 8 starts! He faces a Seattle team that has a record of 11-20 on the road this season and getting outscored by 1 RPG. The M’s have struggled vs left handers especially on the road where they have a batting average of .198 and Perez is allowing opponents to hit just .199 this season. Not a good mix for Seattle. George Kirby has been solid in his first season in the Majors but he’s only pitched 26 career innings. He was very good in his last outing vs light hitting Baltimore but his 2 starts prior to that he allowed 9 ER’s on 16 hits in 10 innings of work. Opponents are hitting a solid .260 vs Kirby and his xERA is higher than his actual ERA. Seattle has the 8th worst bullpen ERA in the Majors while Texas, after a rough start to the season for their relievers, has moved all the way up to 10th in bullpen ERA. Big advantage for Texas pitchers today. The Rangers are playing solid baseball right now winning 7 of their last 11 while Seattle has won only 6 of their last 24 games as a road underdog. Texas gets the win at home. |
|||||||
06-04-22 | Nationals v. Reds -124 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -125 over Washington, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Washington picked up the win here last night and we like Cincy to come out on top at home on Saturday afternoon. The Reds have actually played quite well since their start of the season debacle. They began the season winning just 3 of their first 25 games, however since then they have a winning record at 15-11 their last 26 games. They are 9-6 at home during that stretch. The Reds send Mahle to the hill and he is pitching better than he gets credit for. His ERA is 5.53 but his xFIP is 4.28 and his xERA is just 3.63 telling us he’s been unlucky at times this season. He’s actually allowed 2 ER’s or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and he was one of Cincy’s top starters last year with a 3.75 ERA. Lifetime vs hitters currently on Washington’s roster, Mahle has allowed a batting average of just .196. Washington is 10-17 on the road this year and they have not won back to back road games all season! Fedde hits the hill for the Nats and his ERA is 4.60 which is exactly where his xERA sits as well. His WHIP is 1.53 and he’s had trouble with walks (4.5 per 9 innings) and HR’s (1.2 per 9) this season. He’s had big problems with players currently on the Cincinnati roster as they’ve hit .400 lifetime vs Fedde. He’s backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the league, especially on the road where Washington relievers have an ERA of 6.63. While Cincinnati has turned around their season, the Nationals continue to struggle with a 22-47 record their last 60 road games and 7-25 record their last 32 games after a win. The Reds get the home win on Saturday afternoon. |
|||||||
06-03-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 on the Run Line over Minnesota, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - There isn’t a hotter offensive team in MLB than Toronto right now and they are facing a Minnesota team that is decimated due to injuries and Covid restrictions. The Jays have won 8 straight games and their offense has put up at least 6 runs in all but one of those games. During that 8 game stretch they are averaging 7 RPG and they’ve done some serious damage vs a number of top notch starting pitchers. This team overall probably isn’t quite as good as their 30-20 record as their run differential isn’t great, however they are red hot right now. As we mentioned they are also facing a Minnesota team that is nowhere near 100% and struggling right now. Two of Minnesota’s better offensive players, Correa and Celestino are out due to Covid. Royce Lewis, hitting .300, just came back from a 12 day hiatus due to injury and had to go right back on the IL so he is not available. Now we add in a number of other key players due to Canada’s Covid policy that players must be vaccinated to enter the country. That takes out starting OF Kepler and 3 pitchers that work out of the Minnesota bullpen all unavailable for this series. The Twins come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games @ Detroit, one of the worst teams in MLB, and Minnesota scored only 2 total runs in their last 3 games vs the Tigers. The Twins have won just 3 of their last 10 games and all 10 of those games were vs KC or Detroit who have a combined record of 37-63! In fact, in a weird scheduling situation, the Twins have faced either Detroit or KC in 15 straight games and prior to that they faced Oakland. So Minnesota has played 18 straight games vs the 3 teams who have the worst records in the American League and they are just 10-8 in those games. They take a big step up in competition here and are facing a solid starting pitcher. Toronto will go with left hander Kikuchi on the mound and he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his 9 starts. The Minnesota offense is hitting .167 over their last 10 games vs lefties while averaging less than 1 run per 9 innings. The Twins pulled up Chi Chi Gonzalez from the Minors to make his first MLB appearance this season. He has pitched some at the MLB level but not successfully as his ERA’s over the last 3 seasons were 6.46, 6.86, and 5.29. Now facing a red hot offense we expect him to have problems in this game. Toronto is rolling right now, they are 17-8 at home this season, and Minnesota has too many key players out to hang in this one. We’ll take Toronto at -1.5 on the run line at even money |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 9 PM ET - The best part about this series is the fact that we have the two best teams vying for the Championship and it should be a fantastic series. These were the two best defensive teams in the league during the regular season allowing just 1.070-points per possession. Boston was the better offensive team during the regular season, but the Warriors have flipped the switch in the postseason and have averaged 1.171-points per possession. The Celtics have a pair of quality series wins over the Bucks and Heat, but Milwaukee was without Khris Middleton and the Heat played games without Butler, Herro and Lowry. The Celtics defense contributed to some of the Heat’s 3-point shooting struggles, but a bigger part of the equation was just poor shooting by Miami. Now the Celtics face a Warriors team that is dialed in from beyond the Arc. Golden State just faced the 4th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA of the Mavericks and they torched them from Deep by hitting 59 of 143 or 41%. Golden State is 40-10 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.4PPG. Boston was good on the road this season at 30-20 SU but the young Celtics are faced with their biggest challenge ever in this pressure packed environment. Golden State is 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs and they’ve won those games by an average of +15PPG. This is going to be a great series but we have to side with the veteran home team in the opener. |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – San Diego vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 7:40 PM ET - The Padres are struggling to put runs on the board right now. They are coming off a 3 games series in St Louis where they scored a total of 7 runs. They have not topped 4 runs in any of their last 9 games. Going back further San Diego has topped 4 runs just 2 times in their last 15 games! In their last 8 games the Under is 6-0-2. They’ll be facing Adrian Houser for Milwaukee who just shut them down in San Diego last week allowing 1 ER in 6 innings. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole has been great at home this year allowing only 3 RPG. The Brewers have been solid offensively this season, however their kryptonite has been left handed pitchers. For the season they are hitting just .209 vs south paws while averaging 3.7 RPG. Over the last 10 games Milwaukee has hit just .162 vs lefties. They face a good one tonight in Sean Manaea. His overall ERA is 4.02 but he’s pitched better than that with an xERA and xFIP right around 3.50. He’s allowed 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his 9 stars and the current Brewer roster has a total of 14 career plate appearances vs Manaea giving him an extra edge here. These 2 just met in San Diego last week in a low scoring series with games totaling 3, 5, and 5 runs. The 2 teams were only able to muster 39 hits combined in 3 games, or just 13 per game. Dating back to last year, 9 of the last 10 meetings have totaled 8 or fewer runs. We like the UNDER tonight in Milwaukee. |
|||||||
06-01-22 | Marlins v. Rockies -110 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado -120 over Miami, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET – GAME 2 of a Double Header - Colorado took the series opener on Monday by a final score of 7-1. Miami lost that game decisively with their ace Lopez on the mound and they’ve now won just 2 of their last 10 games. Offense has been a big problem as the Marlins have failed to score more than 4 runs in any of their last 10 games. Even yesterday vs an inexperienced starter for Colorado (Feltner) making his first start at home this season, Miami was only able to score 1 run on 5 hits. On the road this year they have a record of just 9-14 with a batting average of .223 while averaging only 3.5 RPG. They face a pitcher with a high ERA today but the Rockies German Marquez is a veteran whose overall numbers indicate he’s pitching better than his ERA might indicate. His xERA and xFIP (3.85) are much lower than his overall ERA (6.20) and he’s been very unlucky this season with a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .350. He’s been one of the Rockies most consistent starters over the last 5 seasons and current players on the Miami roster are hitting just .216 lifetime vs Marquez. We’ve been looking for a spot to jump on this underrated starter and we feel this is it. Miami hasn’t decided on a starter but we expect Cabrera will be on the mound for the first time this season. He’s made only 7 lifetime appearances in the big leagues and his ERA is nearly 6.00 in those games. His overall ERA is the Minor leagues for his career is a pretty average 4.20. Even if Cabrera doesn’t start we’re good with the Rockies who just get it done at home. They have a batting average of .279 at home this season while averaging 6.4 RPG. The Rockies have twice as many wins at home this season (14) as they do on the road (7) and they’ve topped Miami 7 straight times in Denver. Cabrera will be making his first ever start in the Colorado high altitude and we look for him to struggle. We’re getting a low money line price in our opinion here so we’ll grab Colorado in the -120 range. |
|||||||
05-30-22 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Atlanta vs Arizona, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Arizona sends their ace Gallen to the mound this evening. He’s been lights out all season long with the exception of one outing, his most recent start. He gave up 6 ER’s in just 5 innings of work last week vs KC but prior to that he had allowed 2 ER’s or less in every start (7 starts). Good pitchers bounce back from poor outings and we look for Gallen to pitch very well tonight. Opposing hitters have a batting average of just .170 vs Gallen and his WHIP is a miniscule 0.83. He has faced current Atlanta hitters in 22 total plate appearances so most have not seen him. In those 22 AB’s he has not allowed a hit. He’s facing a light hitting Braves team with a BA of just .232 on the season (22nd in MLB) but on the road Atlanta hits just .212 this season. The Braves will go with a “bullpen game” here starting reliever Spencer Strider. They hope to get 3 or 4 innings out of him and if so they should be in good shape. Strider has been fantastic out of the bullpen this year allowing just 14 hits in 25 innings pitched and 6 ER’s. None of the Arizona hitters have ever faced Strider so he should have a big time advantage the first time through the line up. After he exits, Atlanta has a solid bullpen ranking 10th in ERA, 9th in WHIP and 4th in HR’s allowed. The DBacks offense continues to sit near the bottom of the Majors in RPG (24th) and batting average (29th). They are coming off a 4 game series vs LA Dodgers in which they scored a total of 8 runs. Arizona’s home games are averaging less than 8 total RPG this season and Atlanta’s road games are also averaging less than 8 RPG. We like the UNDER on Monday night. |
|||||||
05-29-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 7 Sunday 8:30 PM ET - If you’ve spent any time watching the NBA playoffs you better know the Celtics are the better team and capable of winning the title this season. Yes, Miami has the best player with Jimmy Butler but he doesn’t have enough supporting talent around him right now. Jimmy hasn’t shown up in a few games so I don’t trust him here when he’s less than 100% on a bum knee. Boston has the better roster and have multiple players capable of taking over the game themselves in Tatum, Brown, Smart and Horford. Home court doesn’t mean much here considering the road team has won 4 games already in this series and it’s clear the oddsmakers agree with the road team favored. In fact, Boston is 20-4 SU this season when favored on the road and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. I like Boston off a loss. The Celtics are 25-11, 23-13 ATS this season overall when coming off a loss. They are 10-1 SU/ATS their last eleven off a loss including a 5-0 record in the playoffs. Without Butler’s 40+ points in Game 6 the Heat are blown out. Lowry has struggled with his shooting until the last game and we don’t expect a repeat performance in this pressure situation. Prior to the Playoffs we liked Boston to get to the Finals and we’ll stick with that prediction and like them to get a win here. |
|||||||
05-29-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -125 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Angels -125 over Toronto, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Toronto has won the first 3 games of this series in LA and we like the Angels to stop the potential sweep today. LA has been the better team all season long. Even with the 3 straight losses, the Angels are 27-21 with a run differential of +43 which is the 2nd best in the American League behind the Yankees. The Jays are 26-20, but they do have a losing record on the road and they have actually been outscored this season by 2 runs. They are the ONLY team in MLB that has a winning record with a negative run differential so they’ve been quite fortunate. Toronto will be facing left hander Sandoval today for the Angels who has been very solid all season long. He has an ERA of 1.79 and he has allowed 1 ER or less in 5 of his 7 starts. At home Sandoval is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.00. The Blue Jays have struggled vs lefties this season averaging just 3.4 RPG and on the road vs southpaws they have put up only 2.5 RPG on the season. LA has actually outhit Toronto in the first 3 games of this series despite losing all 3 and we look for their bats to put up big numbers today. They’ll be facing Toronto starter Berrios who has an ERA of 4.75 but on the road he’s really had problems with an ERA of almost 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.48. He’s coming off a solid start at home vs Seattle, however in his 2 starts prior to that he allowed 11 ER’s in just 10 innings, both on the road. He’s also struggled vs the hitters on LA as they have a lifetime batting average over .300 vs Berrios. The Angels rank in the top 9 in MLB in RPG (6th), batting average (9th), OPS (2nd) and HR’s per 9 innings (2nd). Ohtani was also back in the LA line up yesterday after missing Friday with a sore back. The Jays rank 25th in RPG and 18th in both batting average and OPS. The Angels also have an edge across the board in all key bullpen stats. This one sets up very nicely for the motivated home team looking to avoid a sweep. |
|||||||
05-28-22 | Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Pittsburgh vs San Diego, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these offenses have been below average all season long and both are struggling as we speak. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in RPG, 27th in batting average and OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. San Diego sits at the middle of the pack (15th) in runs scored but that doesn’t match up with their other key stats so they’ve been a bit lucky in that regard. The Padres are 23rd in both batting average and OPS and 27th in HR’s per 9 innings. Over their last 10 games Pittsburgh is averaging 3 RPG and San Diego is putting up just 3.3 RPG. The Pirates have topped 4 runs only ONCE in their last 14 games and they are averaging just 2.5 RPG during that stretch and that includes a 10 run output vs Colorado. San Diego has topped 3 runs only 3 times in their last 10 games. San Diego sends their ace to the mound today. Joe Musgrove has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any of his 8 starts this season and opponents are hitting just .208 against him. At home this year his ERA is 1.80 with a WHIP of 0.75. He always brings some extra juice vs the Pirates who traded him to the Padres in 2021. In his only meeting with Pittsburgh this season, Musgrove allowed 1 ER in 7 innings of work. JT Brubaker is on the hill for Pittsburgh. His overall numbers are better than his 4.64 ERA might indicate. His xERA and xFIP are both lower than his ERA and he's allowing opponents to hit just .222. In his last 7 starts Brubaker has allowed more than 3 ER’s just once and he’s coming off his most impressive outing of the season holding Colorado to 0 ER’s in 6.2 innings. Last night these 2 totaled 7 runs but did so on just 11 hits. Tonight we see a pitcher’s duel and this one stays UNDER the total. |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#977 ASA 9* TOP PLAY ON Houston -1.5 on Run Line over Seattle, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is -200 at most places in this one and by laying -1.5 runs we can knock that down to -120. Seattle is struggling right now to say the least. They have lost 6 straight games and 8 of their last 9. They have been outscored by 19 runs over their last 6 games or an average of -3.2 RPG. They were just swept at home in a 2 game series vs Oakland who has a 19-28 record on the season and they were outhit 21 to 9 in those 2 games. Now they face one of the top pitchers in MLB in Justin Verlander so we don’t expect their offense to catch fire here. Verlander has allowed just 7 ER’s in 8 starts this season and over his last 3 starts he has not allowed a single ER in 19 innings of work. His WHIP is a miniscule 0.72 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .129 vs Verlander. He’s faced Seattle twice this season and the Astros have won those 2 games by a combined score of 11-2. In those 2 starts he’s allowed 2 ER’s in 14.2 innings with 11 K’s and no walks. Flexen is on the mound for Seattle and his numbers aren’t great this season. His ERA is almost 5.00 and opposing teams have a batting average of .275 when he is pitching. While Verlander is peaking right now, Flexen has struggled his last 3 starts allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings. He has made 8 starts this year and Seattle has won 1 of those games. When the 2 starters exit, Houston has a huge edge in the bullpen leading MLB in ERA while Seattle is 25th. Houston is 4-2 this year vs Seattle and in their most recent series in early May, the Astros outscored the M’s 14-2 in 3 games. Seattle has a -29 run differential on the season while Houston sits at +47 (3rd in MLB behind Dodgers and Yankees). We like Houston to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Blue Jays -117 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON Toronto -115 over LA Angels, Friday at 9:35 PM ET - Toronto picked up the win here last night topping the Angels 6-3. That’s 6 wins in the last 9 games for the Jays and we like them to get another one tonight. The offense has been up and down this season for Toronto but we expect them to have success tonight vs Silseth, a rookie starter making just his 3rd appearance in the Majors. He’s started 2 games thus far, both vs Oakland whose offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in a number of key categories. He didn’t allow a run in the first game and then the A’s got to him with 3 ER’s in just 4.1 innings last week. Silseth allowed 8 baserunners in that game. Prior to his 2 starts vs Oakland, he had never pitched above AA level and had pretty average numbers including in college where his ERA 4.35 and 5.55 in his 2 seasons at Tennessee and Arizona. The Blue Jays should have a solid edge on the mound with Manoah who has a 1.62 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 8 starts this season. He has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any of his starts this year and has walked just 5 batters in his last 7 starts. He had an ERA of just 3.22 in his 20 starts last year so Manoah has been very consistent. LAA has struggled offensively as of late averaging a full 1 RPG less over their last 10 compared to their season average. They have won just 3 of their last 9 games and could be without one of their top offensive performers tonight as Ohtani injured his back pitching last night. The bullpen numbers of these 2 teams are fairly even for the season, however Toronto relievers have been much better of late with an ERA of 3.00 and a batting average allowed of .195 over their last 10 games compared to the Angels 5.08 ERA and .250 BA allowed. We have this money line set higher in favor of the Jays so our value is on Toronto tonight. |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 201.5 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 201.5 Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET - VALUE! The two other games played in Boston in this series had Over/Under numbers of 208 and 206 so you can see the value we are getting here. Three of the five games have finished with more than this total and overall the games have averaged 212.5PPG. The two games that didn’t go Over the number were Games 4 &5 which both featured horrendous shooting nights at 33% & 32% by Miami, which are both well below their season average of 46.7% (13th). The Heat are the #1 or best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season, yet are coming off a game in which they made just 7 of 45 3-point attempts or 16%. That clearly is an aberration and can’t continue. Boston has many offensive weapons on offense with Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart if he plays. The Celtics shot just 40% in Game 4 at home but bounced back with a 46% night in Game 5 in Miami. We like that trend to continue here at home in this elimination game. The field goal attempts have been high enough to produce higher scores with 165 in Game 5 and 168, 162, 170 and 169 in the previous games of this series. Boston’s home games have averaged 213PPG this season, Miami’s road contests have averaged 213.1PPG. Grab the value and bet OVER! |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blues | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals +155) over St Louis Blues, Friday at 8:05 PM ET - This Avalanche team that blew a 3-0 lead and lost Game 5 on home ice will bounce back here. That is the kind of loss strong teams bounce back from and certainly the Avs are the much stronger team in terms of how they match up with St Louis. The Avalanche, prior to the Game 5 loss, had won 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, 8 of last 10 Colorado wins in this series have been by a margin of 2 or more goals. In all games, 9 of last 11 Avalanche wins have come by a margin of 2 or more goals. Colorado had won 7 of 8 playoff games in this post-season before the Game 5 loss and are set up well for a big bounce back here at a solid comeback price on the puck line with laying the 1.5 goals. The road team has won 4 straight meetings and 8 of the last 10 between these teams and the strong trend away from home ice continues here. Road team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Colorado at plus money (currently +155 range) is a big value play here. |
|||||||
05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This is another closeout game for the Warriors who lead this series 3-1 and are at home with one of the best defenses in the NBA. This series has been a classic Zig-Zag when it comes to the Over-Under with Game 1 staying Under, 2 going Over etc…Dallas has been a poor shooting team all season long ranking 18th in overall team FG% at 46.1% and 19th in 3-point% at 35%. They had shot poorly in this series until Game 4 at home in Dallas when they hit 50% from the field and 47% from Deep. We don’t expect that to happen again against this Warriors defense that 3rd in points allowed per game, 2nd in defensive field goal percentage allowed and 34rd in 3PT% defense. The Mavericks have been a great defensive team all season too ranking 6th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.094PPP and giving up just 104.7PPG. Dallas also holds the 4th ranked 3PT% defense in the league allowing 34%. The Mavs made some offensive adjustments in Game 3 which improved their offense against the Warriors zone defense, so now expect Golden State to make another adjustment to counter the Mavs. This one stays Under! |
|||||||
05-26-22 | Guardians v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Cleveland vs Detroit, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - Weather is not looking conducive for scoring in this one. Light rain and 10+ MPH winds blowing in from center field. Detroit’s offense has been poor all season ranking dead last in RPG and OPS. The Tigers are averaging just 2.8 RPG on the season and just 2.6 RPG over their last 10. Cleveland has OK overall offensive numbers but over their last 10 games they are hitting just .199 as a team and on the road vs lefties just .193 for the season. They’ll be facing one of the top left handers in MLB tonight in Tarik Skubal. He has allowed just 7 ER’s over his last 7 starts and in 5 of those starts he has held his opponent scoreless. He faced Cleveland on May 20th and held the Indians scoreless through 5 innings before leaving after taking a line drive off his lower leg. He is fine and will make the start tonight. Cleveland will be going with a “bullpen” game tonight. They will start lefty Pilkington but we only expect a few innings from him. He’s been solid in his first year in the Majors with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.04 mainly out of the bullpen. Nobody in Detroit’s line up has ever faced him giving Pilkington a nice edge early in the game and with an early exit expected we don’t anticipate the Tiger hitters facing him more than once or twice in this one. After he exits, Detroit’s bullpen has very good numbers. They rank 2nd in ERA in MLB and 2nd in WHIP so we expect Cleveland’s offense to continue their struggles. The Tigers are 29-13 to the UNDER this season and we expect another low scoring game tonight. |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 203.5 Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET - Three of the four games have finished with more than this total and overall the games have averaged 212.5PPG. The only game that didn’t go Over the number was Game 4 in Boston when the Heat had a horrendous shooting night at 33% which is well below their season average of 46.7% (13th). With Miami coming back home tonight we expect a much better shooting performance. Boston has many offensive weapons on offense with Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart if he plays. The Celtics put up 102 points in the most recent game but they basically coasted in the second half, scoring 45-points after putting up 57 in the first half. The field goal attempts have been high enough to produce higher scores with 168 in Game 4, 162, 170 and 169. Based on those FGA’s, shooting percentages this game should result with a minimum of 214 total points. The Heat home playoff games have averaged 213.25 total points. Bet Over |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Brewers v. Padres -131 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
pitchers with action: #958 ASA PLAY ON San Diego -130 over Milwaukee, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - These 2 have split the first 2 games of this series but the Padres have outhit the Brewers in both games. In last night’s 4-1 loss to Milwaukee, the Brewers managed 4 runs on just 5 hits while San Diego had 8 hits. We expect the Brewers to struggle to find hits again this afternoon with the Padres sending Yu Darvish to the mound. He’s been fantastic at home this year with a 2-0 record and a 1.37 ERA. He’s allowed only 13 baserunners at home this year in 20 innings of work. His lifetime ERA at Petco Park is just 3.12 and he averages 11 K’s per game at home per 9 innings. San Diego had to face Milwaukee ace and Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes yesterday. They actually fared quite well with 7 baserunners in 6 innings. Today they face lefty Ashby who is mainly a reliever and gets a few starts now and then. He has much better lifetime numbers out of the bullpen compared to when he starts (3.60 ERA to 4.60 ERA). On top of that, the Padres have been very successful vs left handers this season averaging 5.5 RPG, a full 1 RPG more than vs right handed pitchers. Once the starters exit the Padres have the better bullpen numbers overall with an ERA close to even with Milwaukee but a lower WHIP, opponent batting average, and opponent OB percentage. That edge gets even greater with Brewer closer Hader not available in this series. Take San Diego at home this afternoon. |
|||||||
05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Laying -1.5 runs here knocks the money line down to about even money. Arizona throws their ace Zac Gallen vs the light hitting Royals tonight. Gallen has been fantastic all season and we just don’t see KC’s offense doing much of anything tonight. Gallen has allowed just 5 ER’s all season in 7 starts for an ERA of 1.14. He’s been even better at home allowing 2 ER’s in 24 innings for an ERA of 0.75. The Royals offense has struggled ranking 24th in runs scored per game and their run differential of -60 is the worst in the American League. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games and 6 of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. Arizona’s offensive numbers for the season are not impressive due to a terrible start to the season at the plate. They’ve looked much better as of late averaging over 5 RPG through their last 10 games. They’ve hit .270 and scored nearly 7 RPG during that 10 game stretch vs right handed pitchers. Tonight they face righty Johnathan Heasley who has been a career minor leaguer for the most part. He has a total of 23 IP in the Majors in his 5 year career. This season he has pitched 8.1 innings, walked 7 batters and allowed 15 base runners. The Royals lost both of his starts this year by a combined score of 6 to 1. He has an ERA this season of 4.32 but he’s been rather lucky has his xERA is above 6.00. If Heasley has a short stint tonight, the KC bullpen ranks 3rd worst in the Majors in ERA and over their last 10 games the relievers have an ERA of almost 7.00. We like Arizona’s offense to have success tonight while KC will struggle to put numbers up vs one of the top starters in MLB. We’ll lay 1.5 runs in this one. |
|||||||
05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks, Tuesday Game 4 - The Mavs are facing elimination in large part because of poor offensive execution and bad shooting. For all his greatness, Luka is a ball-stopper on offense and there is very little movement by the rest of the players. That’s why the Mavs were last in the league in average time of possession before taking a shot at 15.5 seconds. In the regular season this Dallas team had just 7,902 total possessions which was by far the lowest number in the league. The Mavericks were not a great shooting team during the regular season, ranking 18th at 46.1% overall and 19th in 3-point percentage at 35%. Against a very good Warriors defense they have really struggled at 41% overall and 32% from Deep in this series. Golden State is 3rd overall in the league allowing 105.5PPG, 2nd in FG% D at 43.8% and 3rd in 3PT% defense allowing 33.9%. Golden State is obviously known for their shooters and offense but their points haven’t come easy against this sold Dallas defense that makes them earn every point. Dallas was 6th in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing just 1.094PPP and 104.7PPG. What we have seen in this series is a steady decline in total field goal attempts with 168 in Game 1, 160 in Game 2 and 156 in Game 3. Those are well below the league average. We like Under here. |
|||||||
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 4 Monday 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics laid an egg in Game 3 against the Heat and will bounce back here on their home court. Boston was flat in the previous game, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter after allowing 39. Miami was in control throughout the entire game before the C’s made it interesting late. Tatum had a horrible night for Boston by going 3 of 14 from the field for just 10-points so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Miami could be without their best defender in this game as Jimmy Butler only played 19+ minutes in G3 after reaggravating a lingering knee injury. Not only does that hurt Miami’s defense and primary defender on Tatum or Brown, it takes 21.4PPG and 6RPG away from their offense. Strangely enough, the Heat have only won 2 of the 12 quarters played in this series, yet still hold a 2-1 series advantage. The Law of Averages will start to even out beginning in Game 4 which is now a must-win for Boston. Boston is 24-11 SU when coming off a loss this season with the best average Margin of Victory in the league at +7.6PPG. Including the post season the C’s are 32-16 SU at home and they’ve won those games by +6.8PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road in the playoffs and the three losses have come by an average of 10PPG. If Butler plays or doesn’t we still like Boston big at home. |
|||||||
05-23-22 | Phillies -113 v. Braves | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -115 over Atlanta, Monday at 7:20 PM ET - After losing 3 straight games, Philly has some nice momentum heading to Atlanta after beating the Dodgers yesterday. They have not been on the road since May 15th so the Phillies should be well rested. In their most recent road trip (May 12 – 15) they took 3 out of 4 games from the Dodgers in LA. Atlanta is off a loss on Sunday @ Miami. This will be their first home game since May 15th after a long 6 game road trip so a tougher spot for the host here. The Phillies should have a solid offensive showing here vs left hander Davidson who is making just his 2nd appearance of the season. He’s thrown only 7.2 innings this season and allowed 13 baserunners during that stretch. Davidson has had control problems walking a whopping 17 in his 29 career innings in his short MLB career. The Phillies line up has been very successful vs lefties this season averaging over 6 RPG their last 10. On the road for the season they having a team batting average of .288 vs LH’s while putting up 7.7 RPG! The Braves might have problems on offense in this one. They are hitting just .222 overall this season (24th in MLB) and they are getting outscored at home this season. They will face Wheeler who is rounding into form after a rough start to the season. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed just 3 ER’s in 26 innings on only 17 hits. He’s pitching much better right now than his 4.26 ERA and over the last 2 seasons Wheeler has been the Phillies ace with an ERA’s of 2.78 and 2.92. We’re getting the better offense with their ace on the mound here basically at even money. We’ll take Philadelphia on Monday. |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This series shifts to Dallas and the host is going to get a home win here. Golden State blew the Mavs out in Game 1, then Dallas jumped out to a big lead in Game 2 early, then produced just 45 points in the second half to lose by 9. Dallas is in a must win situation here and elite teams find a way to win these games. The Mavs were 29-12 SU at home this season with a +/- of +6.3PPG. Dallas is 5-1 SU at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory is +11.8PPG. Golden State was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season which is solid, but they haven’t been great in the postseason with three losses away from home. One of those losses was a 30-point blowout in Memphis. Dallas was 25-11 SU this season off a loss, 10-4 at home. Their average margin of victory when coming off a loss is +6.0PPG. Golden State is 0-4 ATS their last four road games, Dallas has covered 7 of their last eight at home as a chalk. Luka and company will find a way to get this home win! |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Washington vs Milwaukee, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Washington offense has scored a grand total of 1 run in this series thus far in 2 games. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games and those 9 games have totaled less than 8.5 runs 6 times. The chances of them getting on track offensively in this one are not good. Peralta is on the mound for Milwaukee and his ERA is 3.52 on the season but he’s pitching much better than that right now. He had 1 poor outing in mid April allowing 6 ER’s in just 3 innings vs St Louis throwing off his season long numbers. Since that outing he has allowed 5 ER’s in his last 5 starts. In those 5 starts he has 38 strikeouts and just 6 walks. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole is allowing just 2.8 RPG at home and with Washington struggling right now, that trend should continue. The Nats will throw Aaron Sanchez who doesn’t have great seasonal numbers with a high ERA but he’s pitching better than that. His ERA is 7.94 which is by far the highest of his career, but his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he’s actually pitched this season is 4.50 and his xFIP is 4.49 indicating he’s actually pitching OK this year. His BABIP (batting average balls in play) is a very high .359 which tells us he’s had some tough luck so far this season. In his career vs current Brewer hitters he’s allowed a batting average of just .222 with on OBA of .291 so very solid. Milwaukee games have stayed under this current total of 8.5 in 4 of their last 5 games including both in this series (6 & 7 total runs). We like the UNDER in this one. |
|||||||
05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 207.5 | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics, Game 3 Saturday, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 the Celtics did not shoot well from Downtown against Miami as they hit just 11 of 34 3PT attempts. In Game 2 the Celtics shot 51% overall and 50% from beyond the Arc in their blowout win over Miami. Miami, who is the best 3-point shooting team in the league, had an off night from beyond the arc, hitting just 10 of 30 in Game 1 but still managed to score 118 points. In Game 2 the Heat really struggled with a 10 of 34 night from beyond the 3-point line or 29%. These two teams combined for 225 total points in the opener and that’s with Boston scoring only 14 points in the 3rd. In Game 2 the Celtics scored 30 or more points by themselves in 3 of four quarters. Miami is on an 8-1 Over streak their last nine games against a team with a winning record. Boston is 9-2 Over their last eleven when also facing a team with a winning record. In 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams they’ve combined for more than 207 total points. |
|||||||
05-21-22 | White Sox v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met last weekend and the Yankees took 3 of 4 games in Chicago. In that series NY outscored the Sox 32 to 15 and out hit them with a batting average of .286 to .231. The Yanks continue to roll with MLB’s best record at 28-10 and the 2nd best run differential at +72 (Dodgers have top run differential). They’ve won 8 of their last 10 but are coming off a rare loss at Baltimore which bodes well for NY as they are 15-3 SU coming off a loss dating back to the end of last season. Yankee ace lefty Cortes hits the hill tonight and he completely shut down the White Sox over the weekend giving up just 1 run over 8 innings. The Sox were able to get just 3 batters on base during that 8 inning span. Cortes has an ERA of 1.35 on the season averaging almost 12 K’s per 9 innings, allowing an opponent batting average of .164 with a WHIP of 0.85. He’s also backed up by one of the best bullpens in baseball. We don’t expect Chicago, who ranks 26th in runs scored and 26th in OPS, to do much of anything offensively in this one. Chicago is also in a tough situational spot having just played 5 games in 4 days @ KC and now on the road again. The Yankees don’t have any problems offensively right now. They lead MLB in OPS, 2nd in HR’s per game, and 4th in runs scored. They face Dallas Keuchel who has been very poor this season after struggling as well a year ago. He has an ERA of 5.54 and a WHIP of almost 2.00. Keuchel is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of .319 and he’s walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. He pitched fairly well vs NY over the weekend going 5 innings and not allowing a run, however the Yanks had 7 baserunners during that 5 inning stretch. On the road this season Keuchel has an ERA of over 11.00 and a WHIP of almost 3.00! The Yanks average over 6 RPG at home vs lefties this season and we like them to pound Keuchel in this one. Let’s lay 1.5 runs with New York on Saturday in early day game action. |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 213.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors, Game 2 Friday 9 PM ET - After the blowout loss in Game 1 we expect the Mavericks offense to return tonight and a much better shooting performance by Dallas in Game 2. Dallas shot just 36% overall and 23% (11 of 48) from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 46.1% and 35%. Dallas managed just 36 total points in the 1st and 4th quarter combined which is well below their season average of 52PPG scored in those two quarters during the regular season. The Warriors shot 56% from the field in Game 1 or 46 of 82. The game plan was clearly to attack the Mavs interior defense which is lacking a rim protector as evidenced by their 29 3-point attempts which was much lower than their season average of 39.5. Both teams are going to make adjustments and have more success from Deep in Game 2 which should push this game Over the number rather easily. Golden State’s home games have averaged 217 total points per game in the postseason. The Mavs road playoff games have averaged 214 total points. The Over is 60% or 6-4 the last ten meetings. We expect both teams to have a much better shooting night from the 3-point line, along with a slightly faster pace throughout the entire game (slowed dramatically in the 4th with the Warriors in cruise control). Bet OVER! |
|||||||
05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 207.5 | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - The pace of play in Game 1 was extremely slow with only 159 field goal attempts but the big reason the game went Over the total was the volume of free throws by both teams and 3-pointers attempted and made. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 66 free throws which is 22 more than league average for an NBA game. As we predicted in G1 the Celtics would not shoot as well from Downtown against Miami as they did against the Bucks, and they hit just 11 of 34 3PT attempts. We expect adjustments here and a slightly better shooting night in Game 2 from Boston. Miami, who the best 3-point shooting team in the league, had an off night from beyond the arc, hitting just 10 of 30. The Heat should settle in and have a better night from distance in G2. These two teams combined for 225 total points in the opener and that’s with Boston scoring only 14 points in the 3rd. Miami’s home games in the playoffs have averaged 209.5PPG. Boston’s road playoff games have averaged 216 total points. Both teams are in the top half of the league in 3-point attempts which will help this game get Over the number in Game 2. |
|||||||
05-19-22 | Reds v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Cleveland, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Two big time OVER teams facing off here as the Reds are 22-12-2 to the OVER and the Guardians are 20-14 to the OVER. Both teams have been playing well offensively as of late with Cleveland averaging 4.95 RPG over their last 10 and Cincinnati averaging 5.93 their last 10. Cleveland sends Quantrill to the hill and while his ERA is a solid 3.93, his xERA (expected ERA) and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) are both quite a bit higher telling us he’s been a bit lucky this season. Tyler Mahle is pitching for the Reds and his ERA is approaching 6.00 and actually dropped the last 2 games as he allowed only 2 ER’s in each. However, both of those outings were vs Pittsburgh who is 26th in batting average and 29th in total runs scored on the season. Cleveland is 7th in MLB in RPG and 5th in batting average so Mahle will have a tougher go of it today. Both pitchers struggle with walks so we expect plenty of base runners today. The ump behind the plate today is Jerry Meals who has called balls & strikes 6 times this year and his games have averaged 11.5 total runs. We like OVER this afternoon. |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Mavs who are coming off a huge upset of the #1 seed Suns with a road win and now travel to face a rested Warriors team. Golden State was 31-10 SU at home in the regular season with the best average Margin of Victory at +9.9PPG. At home the Warriors allowed just 1.039-points per possession which was tops in the league. Golden State is 6-0 in the playoffs with an average MOV of +15PPG with 5 of their wins coming by 6 or more points. Dallas was solid on the road this season during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and a +/- of +0.3PPG. The Mavericks have very good defensive efficiency numbers on the season but they were much better at home than they were on the road as they ranked 12th in DEFF when away from home. Offensively the Mavs may not have enough weapons to compete with Golden State in this series. Dallas is currently 24th in the league in scoring, Golden State is 13th. The Mavs are 18th in overall team FG%, Golden State is 6th. Dallas is the 15th ranked 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Warriors are 4th. In the playoffs these teams have similar numbers with the Warriors averaging 1.148PPP and Dallas averaging 1.156PPP. Golden State has been slightly better defensively than the Mavs in the postseason allowing 1.108PPP compared to 1.109PPP for the Mavs. Luka is the best overall player left in the playoffs but the Warriors have too many weapons with Klay, Steph, Draymond and Poole. |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Yesterday we were on Tampa Bay on the run line and picked up an easy 8-1 win. We see a similar outcome (easy win) tonight with Miami over Washington. Rather than laying -200 with the Marlins we’ll grab the run line at -1.5 and then we are getting +115. Miami has dominated this series this season going a perfect 5-0 thus far and tonight they have their best pitcher on the mound. Pablo Lopez has been fantastic this season giving up just 5 ER’s in starts! He has allowed 0 ER’s in 4 of his 7 starts and has allowed more than 1 ER just one time all season. He’s already faced Washington this year and did not give up an ER in his 6 IP. He’s facing a Nationals team that has really struggled offensively as of late, scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 5 games vs Miami this season, Washington has scored a total of 8 runs and they have not topped 2 runs in any of those 5 games. They are hitting just .184 as a team in those 5 games averaging less than 6 hits per game. In the first 2 games of this series in Miami, the Nats have been outscored 13-3 and outhit 26-12. Miami is trending upward offensively. They are averaging 6 RPG over their last 6 games and over their last 10 the Marlins are hitting .282 vs right handers and putting up nearly 6 RPG. They’ll be facing Washington starter Josiah Gray who has an ERA of 4.34 and has really struggled his last 2 outings allowing 9 ER’s in 11 IP and 5 HR’s. In his 1 start vs Miami this season, Gray allowed 4 ER’s and 10 baserunners in just 5.2 innings of work. When we get to the bullpens, Miami is superior in almost every key category. We think Washington really struggles offensively again vs one of the top pitchers in the Majors and Miami wins this one by at least 2 runs. |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -125 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat Money Line -125 over the Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston is coming off a draining 7-game series over the Bucks, had to travel and have just 1 day off after playing a very short rotation against Milwaukee. The Heat have been off since Thursday the 12th and are plenty rested here. The Celtics benefitted from great 3-point shooting in their series against the Bucks who have a horrible defensive philosophy defending the 3 (and ranked 19th in the NBA in 3PT% D). The Celtics made 53 more 3’s than Milwaukee in the series. Boston isn’t going to get those wide-open looks against Miami who held the 2nd best 3PT% defense in the NBA this season at 33.9%. The C’s were an average shooting team during the regular season, ranking 15th in overall FG% and 14th in 3PT%. Miami shot 46.7% during the regular season which was 13th overall but they were the best or #1 ranked 3-point shooting team at 37.9%. Granted, the Celtics are great at defending the Arc, but they won’t hold this Heat team to 12% as they did the Bucks in Game 7. Miami is 29-12 SU at home this regular season with a +/- of +5.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. They’ve gone 6-0 SU at home in the postseason with an average Margin of Victory of +17PPG. This is a bad situation for Boston and a great one for Miami. Bet the Heat! |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -1.5 on Run Line over Detroit, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - TB is a huge -275 favorite here but if we take the run line we can knock it down to the -120 range. Tampa is coming off a 3-2 loss yesterday vs the Tigers and Detroit scored the game winner in the 9th inning. The Tigers had only 6 baserunners in 9 innings yesterday and somehow scratched out 3 runs. We think Detroit struggles to score anything today vs McClanahan who is on the hill for Tampa. He has fantastic 2.52 ERA but has actually pitched better than his numbers with an xERA of 2.40 and a ridiculously good xFIP of 1.65. McClanahan is averaging a whopping 13 K’s per 9 innings while walking just 2. He’s facing a Detroit offense that ranks dead last in the Majors in both scoring and OPS. The Tigers, with a 13-23 record, might look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but their 3 wins prior to last night were at home where they swept a bad Baltimore team. In the 3 games before that series the Tigers were swept at home by Oakland and scored 4 total runs in that 3 game series. Detroit pitcher Brieske has made 4 starts this season and those are his only 4 appearances in the Majors in his career. His ERA looks solid at 3.86, however his xERA is almost 6.00 and his xFIP is 5.82. Prior to getting called up to Detroit he had an ERA of 4.50 for Toledo in the Minors. His luck factor has been extremely high with opposing hitters BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is just .164. We like Tampa to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
|||||||
05-16-22 | Braves v. Brewers -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee -135 over Atlanta, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - These 2 just met in early May in Atlanta and the Braves took 2 of 3 giving Milwaukee a little extra incentive here. The Brewers are happy to be back at home after a long 9 game road trip. At home Milwaukee is 10-4 on the season and run differential of +3 RPG. They average 6.5 RPG at home and vs right handers that number jumps up to 7 RPG at American Family Field! They’ll be facing Ian Anderson who has an ERA of 4.20 and has given up 4 HR’s in his last 5 games. That could be a problem in this one vs a Brewer line up that averages 1.42 HR’s per 9 innings, 2nd in the Majors. The Braves are on the road for the first time since May 4th after a disappointing 4-4 home stand. They are just 6-8 on the road this year hitting just .216 as a team and averaging only 3.4 RPG. They are facing Freddy Peralta for Milwaukee and we feel he is undervalued right now. His ERA is 4.40, but most of that came in his first 2 starts where he struggle back in mid April. His xERA is 3.40 and his FIP is fantastic at 2.37 which lends to the fact he has pitched much better than his ERA suggests. In his last 4 starts Peralta has allowed just 4 ER’s with 28 strikeouts and only 5 walks. At home this season he is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of just 0.93. Versus current players on Atlanta’s roster, Peralta has faced 49 plate appearances and the Braves hitters have a batting average of just .209. We like Milwaukee to get the win at home tonight. |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
#260 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -115 over Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Cubs pulled off a 4-2 win in Arizona yesterday despite picking up only 4 hits in the game. The DBacks won the first game of the series and have outhit the Cubs 20 to 9 in the first 2 games. Chicago is just 9 of 61 at the plate (.147 batting average) so far in this series while Arizona is 20 for 70 (.286 average). The Cubs have been struggling at the plate for a while now with a team BA of just .202 over their last 10 games averaging 2.9 RPG. They have a 3-7 record in those games. Arizona is 7-3 over their last 10 games hitting .249 and averaging 5 RPG. Today they face Chicago lefty Steele and the DBacks have been even better vs southpaws hitting .292 and averaging 5.5 RPG over their last 10. Steele has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.32 and he has not pitched more than 4 innings in any of his last 4 starts. He’s allowed 27 baserunners in his last 4 starts spanning just 12.2 innings. Arizona starter Castellanos has an ERA of 4.32, however he has had only 1 poor start this season. In 4 of his 5 starts he has allowed 3 ER’s or less. He’s allowed 0 ER’s in 2 of his 5 starts on the year. With the Cubs struggling at the plate and Arizona coming alive offensively and facing a struggling pitcher, we like the Diamondbacks to take the series finale today. |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -5 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
#524 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston -5 over Milwaukee, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bucks had a chance to put this series away at home on Friday night and came up well short losing 108-95. Milwaukee led in that game for a grand total of 3 minutes! In fact, since the start of the 2nd quarter in game 5, the Bucks have led for just 4:40 of a possible 84:00 minutes and somehow they were able to split those 2 games. Each team won in blowout fashion to split the first 2 games of the series, since then Milwaukee won 2 down to the wire games by 2 & 3 points in which they trailed with under 1:00 minute remaining in each while the Celtics 2 wins since then were by 13 & 8 points. In those 2 tight wins by the Bucks, Boston star Jason Tatum was a combined 16 of 48 from the field (33%) and 2 of 18 from beyond the arc (11%). Even with that, Boston nearly won both of those games. When Tatum has played well, Boston has won comfortably and we expect a big game from him on Sunday. Despite the series being tied at 3-3, Boston has a point differential of +27 in 6 games despite shooting just 40.7% from the field with Milwaukee making 42% of their shots. The Celts are also +18 points vs the spread so far in 6 games. The Bucks are lucky to still be alive in this series. We think it will be very difficult for Milwaukee to win on the road for the 3rd time in this series. We’ll lay the points with Boston. |
|||||||
05-14-22 | Guardians -125 v. Twins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
MLB side pick "action" #923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -125 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Cleveland is coming off a 12-8 loss here last night and we expect them to bounce back with a win today with their ace on the mound. Last night the Twins were able to rough up Cleveland starter Civale which wasn’t a huge surprise as his ERA is now north of 9.00 and he has allowed at least 6 ER’s now in 3 of his last 4 starters. Today Minnesota will have a much tougher go of it facing former Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber. He is coming off his worst start of the year @ Toronto and that should give Bieber some extra motivation here. Prior to his most recent start, he had allowed a total of 8 earned runs in just over 28 innings this season. His ERA is just over 4.00, however most of that was due to his one poor outing a week ago when he gave up 7 ER’s in 3 innings. He should handle a Twins offense that before last night was faltering averaging just 2.7 RPG over their previous 10. Cleveland’s offense shouldn’t have a problem tonight. They have been one of the best in the Majors all season ranking in the top 4 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. They face Minnesota starter Smeltzer who was called up from the Minors to get the start today. He has pitched 69 total innings in the Majors in his career but has been pretty much a life long Minor leaguer. It’s not like he’s been a dominant Minor league pitcher with a career 17-21 record with a WHIP of 1.24 in 374 innings. The Guardians had won 6 of their previous 9 games entering yesterday and their offense has averaged 6 RPG over their last 10. Take Cleveland on Saturday. |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -8 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Warriors were HUMILIATED in the last meeting and teams of this caliber will be extra motivated and focused here. Golden State was down 50 in the 3rd quarter of game 5 and were never in it. Let’s not forget the Warriors were 31-10 SU at home with the best average margin of victory at +9.9PPG. GST is also 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +/- of +15PPG and own a 30-point win a few games ago versus this same Grizzlies team. Golden State was 12-4 SU off a loss this season when playing at home and are 9-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points this season. The experience and home court advantage will be too much for the Grizzlies to overcome. |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET Thursday - The 76ers played well at home in Games 3 & 4 with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. Then Miami flexed their muscle in Game 5 at home in a blowout. We are betting the 76ers don’t shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. In Game 5 they shot just 36% overall and 28% from 3. Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. We don’t expect Miami to shoot as well as they did in the previous game when they hit 54% of their FG attempts and scored 120-points. The field goal attempts for this series has been unusually low with 171, 162, 144, 150 and 169. Don’t forget, league average during the regular season was around 176. |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - We’ve played many more UNDERS this year than OVERS and cashed in nicely on most of them. The UNDERS have cashed at over 56% so far this season (non extra inning games). That being said, the Reds are a full blown OVER team right now. They have the best OVER record in MLB by a long shot at 21-9-1. Their pitching staff is weak and their offense is clicking right now. After losing 20 of 21 games between April 12th and May 5th, the Reds have now won 4 of their last 6 and their offense is red hot averaging over 8 RPG in those 6 contests. Cincy is now 13-1-1 to the OVER in their last 15 games. Pittsburgh’s offense has also been playing much better as of late putting up just over 4 RPG over their last 10 hitting .250 as a team during that stretch. The Reds pitching staff is dead last in team ERA by a longshot at 6.61 while Pittsburgh has the 3rd worst ERA in MLB at 4.81. The scheduled starters are Brubaker for Pittsburgh and Overton for Cincinnati. Advantage to the hitters in this game as both teams just faced off vs these pitchers last week so they’ve seen them very recently. That match up went to Pittsburgh 9-2 so easily over the total. Cincy struggled a bit vs Overton which was to be expected as he was making his first start ever vs the Reds and just the 5th start of his career. The Reds should have a much better showing offensively in this game seeing him for the 2nd time in a week. Once we get to the bullpens we have 2 of the worst in the Majors (30th and 25th in bullpen ERA) so we don’t expect these offenses to slow down late in the game. We’re on the OVER in this one. |
|||||||
05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET Wednesday - We are betting this game will be an old fashion Eastern Conference defensive battle from start to finish. This teams don’t like each other, and it’s elevated both teams play, especially on the defensive end of the court. The first three games of this series all stayed Under the Total and Game 4 was on pace to stay Under again but then the Celtics exploded for 69 points in the second half on 63% shooting. Al Horford for the Celtics “backpacked” his team in the second half with a career playoff high of 30-points. We can’t see the 37-year-old duplicating that type of performance. The Bucks shot just 41% in Game 4 and coach Bud for some unexplained reason played defensive minded George Hill over Bobby Portis which clearly hurt the Bucks offense. In the two games played in Boston the Bucks struggled with their shooting at 43.5% as a team, well below their season average of 46.8%. During the regular season the Bucks were a disappointing 13th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.118-points per possession, but they played a large portion of the season without Brook Lopez. In the Playoffs the Bucks have the #1 ranked DEFF allowing just .998PPP. These two teams have played slow in the postseason with the Celtics ranking 10th of all 16 playoff teams in pace, the Bucks rank 12th. These two teams both end up in the 90’s in this one! |
|||||||
05-11-22 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Colorado vs San Francisco, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies have their best pitcher going today with Chad Kuhl on the hill. He has allowed a grand total of 5 ER’s on the season in his 4 starts. He’s given up just 2 HR’s in 4 games with a 0.84 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .157 vs Kuhl. His 4 starts have averaged just 6.25 total RPG. He will be opposed by a pitcher we feel is drastically undervalued right now. The Giants send Cobb to the hill and his numbers are much higher than they should be. His overall ERA is 4.80, however his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he has pitched this season is just 1.24 and his xFIP is a very low .205 which is the 3rd lowest of all starting pitchers taking the hill today. Those numbers tell us he is pitching MUCH better than his ERA indicates. We’ve discussed the Rockies overall offensive numbers many times within our analysis on their games. Their overall offensive stats look very good. However, much of that success has come at home in the high altitude. On the road this team is hitting just .233 and averaging less than 3 RPG. Versus right handers on the road the Rockies are squeezing out only 2.05 RPG on the season. The Giants offense has been humming in the first 2 games of this series putting up 17 total runs, however they have faced two lower tier starters for Colorado. In their previous 6 games leading into this series, San Fran was averaging just 3.6 RPG and that INCLUDED a 13 run outburst vs the Cardinals Steven Matz who has an ERA north of 7.00. Two top notch starters keep this game low scoring this afternoon. |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Kansas City vs Texas, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - The top starters for each team on the hill today and with the total set at 8 we like the UNDER in this one. Keller is the starter for KC and he has 5 starts under his belt allowing just 6 ER’s all season. In his last 3 starts he’s pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 1 ER. His WHIP is an impressive 0.84 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .168 vs Keller. Texas sends Perez to the mound and he’s a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. His first 2 starts of the season were a bit shaky but he’s pitched really well as of late. Over his last 3 starts, spanning 20 innings, Perez has allowed only 1 ER on only 8 total hits. Opposing batters are hitting barely over .200 vs the lefty. KC is averaging just 2.4 RPG vs left handers so with how well Perez has been pitching, we see him having great success here. Neither team is lighting it up offensively. Both rank near the bottom of MLB in both batting average and OPS. KC is putting up an average of just 3.1 RPG on the season and Texas is at 4.1 RPG. The Rangers have been a bit fortunate to get to that number as their overall offensive numbers (BA, OPS, HR’s) are not that of a team averaging 4.1 RPG. If we narrow it down to more recent results, over the las 10 games the Royals are averaging 2.73 RPG and the Rangers are at 3.13. These 2 starting pitchers have combined for 10 starts this year and only once has a game topped 8 runs. We don’t see either of these offenses having much success and we’ll grab the UNDER tonight. |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
#41/42 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6.5 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET – Amazingly, all 4 games so far in this series as well as 7 straight meetings dating back to the regular season have seen the victorious team score at least 5 goals in each of the games! 6 of those 7 games have gone over the total and the average total goals scored is 8 per game. Given those numbers and the fact that neither goalie has impressed overall in this series, we like the over in this one. Special teams can play a huge role in totals as well and the fact that the last 5 games between these teams have featured a total of 2.6 power play goals scored per game is certainly a big plus for our over tonight. In fact, each team had a power play goal in each of the 2 games in Tampa and the game before that saw the Lightning score 3 power play goals at Toronto. Coming off a 7-3 loss in Game 4 on the road, the Maple Leafs are sure to respond big on home ice here but their struggles to stop the Lightning likely to continue in this one as Tampa Bay has scored an average of 4 goals in the last 7 meetings. As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here
|
|||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET Tuesday - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Games 3 & 4 at home with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. We are betting the 76ers cannot continue to shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable as Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami also had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly but should find their stroke again back in South Beach. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. Those 3-point statistics are unusually strange considering the Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami back at home. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-11 SU record, 10-5 SU at home. The Heat are 34-12 SU at home this season, 5-0 SU in the playoffs. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 5. |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +1.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Game 4 Monday 7:30 PM ET - This game presents another “Zig-Zag” opportunity, so we’ll back the Celtics in this pivotal Game 4. With a win the Celtics can even the series and reclaim home court advantage. Good or bad shooting has played the biggest role in this series and the Celtics are coming off a horrible shooting Game 3 and we expect a correction here. Boston shot just 37% overall and 27% in Game 3 after shooting 47% from beyond the Arc in Game 2. Jayson Tatum (averages 26.9PPG, 8RPG) will bounce back after a poor game in which he scored 10 points on 4 of 19 shooting (0-6 from 3). Even with their All-Star and best player (Tatum) struggling the Celtics still played the Bucks to a 2-point game. Giannis was absolutely incredible in Game 3 with 42-points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists but we doubt he can replicate that performance here. Jrue Holiday contributed 25-point in the G3 win but it took him 30 field goal attempts to get it which isn’t a good sign. Boston has a roster capable of winning it all this season and they’ll bounce back off the previous game loss. The Celtics are 21-12 SU off a loss this season, 10-7 away from home. |
|||||||
05-09-22 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland vs Detroit, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - Two of the worst and coldest offenses going at it head to head tonight in this one. Oakland ranks 25th in RPG, 29th in batting average, 30th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s. Detroit ranks 30th, 26th, 29th and 30th in those categories respectively. Both teams also strikeout a LOT with both whiffing almost 10 times per 9 innings. Both have been terrible vs right handed pitchers this season and especially as of late with Oakland averaging 1.83 RPG with a BA of .174 and Detroit averaging 2.02 RPG with a BA of .202 their last 10 games. The A’s are off a series in Minnesota where they scored 4 total runs in 3 games and they’ve been held to 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 14 games. Detroit is off a series in Houston where they scored 6 total runs in 4 games and they’ve scored 3 runs or less in 13 of their last 16 games. Blackburn takes the mound for Oakland and he’s been their best starter this year allowing just 6 ER’s in 24 innings with a WHIP of 0.95. He’s coming off his worst outing of the season, allowing 3 ER’s vs a red hot Tampa Bay offense, and we expect him to pitch very well today. Pineda has been solid for the Tigers with a 3.77 ERA on the season and he’s been consistently good for 3 seasons now with his highest ERA at 3.62 during that span. Both pitchers have great K to walk ratios and we mentioned both offenses struggle with strikeouts. These teams have combined record of 34-20-1 to the UNDER this year and with the wind blowing in from left tonight at 10 to 15 MPH, this sets up nicely for a low scoring game. We’re on the UNDER. |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Heat +2 v. 76ers | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +2 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Game 3 with the return of Joel Embiid in their 20-point home win, which makes this a 2-1 series in favor of Miami. Embiid didn’t have a big statistical impact with 18-points and 11-rebounds and he’s clearly not 100% with a bad thumb and orbital fracture. The 76ers had a great shooting Game 3 at home with 48% overall and 48% from beyond the 3-point line. Maxey and Green had unusually great games with a combined 42-points and 12 of 15 shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable and will revert back to the norm. Miami also had an abysmal shooting performance in G3 of 35% overall and 23% from 3. The Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami in this one. The Heat aren’t intimidated playing on the road as they finished the regular season 24-17 SU with a +/- of +3.4PPG. The 76ers were slightly above average in terms of average margin of victory at +3.1PPG when playing at home this season. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-10 SU record, 10-5 SU away from home. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 4. |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - We’ve been cashing in quite regularly with Unders this season but we switch gears and take the Over in this one. The Reds are one of the few teams that has a solid Over record this season (17-9-1 to the Over) and they’ve gone Over the total in 10 of their last 11 games. Their last 11 games have averaged 13 total runs per game. Their pitching has been horrendous which is a big reason for their high scoring games. They are dead last in MLB in both starter’s ERA and bullpen ERA. Today the Reds send Tyler Mahle to the hill and after a solid first start of the season way back on April 7th, he has since allowed 20 ER’s in his last 21 innings spanning 5 starts. Pittsburgh’s starter Thompson has been worse. His ERA is almost 10.00 and his WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is one of the highest in the Majors for a starting pitcher at 2.22. We spoke of Cincinnati’s struggles in the bullpen but Pittsburgh’s relievers are great either ranking in the bottom third of MLB in ERA, hits allowed, and WHIP. The first 2 games of this series 11 and 13 runs with the teams combining for 36 hits and a whopping 54 total baserunners. More struggles for each pitching staff here and another Over is on the way. |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Milwaukee vs Atlanta, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Two of the top starting pitchers in baseball are facing off in this one. Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes is on the hill for Milwaukee and lefty Max Fried will start for Atlanta. In his last 4 starts Burnes has allowed a grand total of 4 ER’s in 28 innings with a whopping 39 K’s (~10 per game) and just 4 walks. Fried has allowed only 5 ER’s in his last 4 starts spanning 24 innings with 22 K’s and 0 walks. We look for very few walks today from these 2 so the opposing batters will have to earn their runs which will be tough. Both starters have the ability to go deep into games but when we do reach the bullpens both are among the best in MLB. Milwaukee has been scoring plenty of runs as of late, however their most recent games have been at home vs the Reds who have the worst ERA in MLB and yesterday vs Atlanta (Brewers scored 6 runs) the Braves went with a reliever who doesn’t start and he gave up 2 ER’s and lasted only 1 inning. Now Milwaukee faces a top of the line starter for the first time in well over a week. On top of that, the Brewers have struggled with left handed pitchers hitting just .218 and averaging a full 1.5+ RPG less than when facing a right hander. On the other side, Atlanta has hit just .220 vs right handers this year and they average a full 1 RPG less than when facing lefties. Both teams strikeout a lot (22nd and 28th in MLB) which will be a big problem vs these pitchers. We don’t foresee many baserunners today (Burnes WHIP is 0.73 & Fried is 0.87) so very few chances to push runners across the plate. Under is the play. |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -117 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -117 over Boston Celtics, 3:30 PM ET - Based on the line in the opening game of this series this number should be slightly higher than it is so we’ll gladly take the value and the Bucks off a loss, back at home. Specifically in Game 2, the Celtics had a remarkably well shooting night from beyond the arc at 47% or 20 of 43. Those are surprising numbers considering Boston was 14th in the league in 3PT% at 35.5%. Granted, the Bucks aren’t great defending the 3-point line (35.6%) but the 47% in Game 2 was more of an aberration than a norm. Speaking of 3-pointers, the Bucks were the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 36.6% but in Game 2 they hit just 17% or 3 of 18. That’s not going to happen again with the Bucks back on their home court. Milwaukee was 22-11 SU off a loss this season, 13-7 at home. Let’s not forget the Bucks are 12-2 SU their last 14 home playoff games dating back to last season and the Celtics are a young team playing a huge game on the road. This is a classic Zig-Zag spot to back the home team Bucks! |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Colorado vs Arizona, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - While the DBacks bats did come alive a bit over their last 4 or 5 games, they are still hitting a league low .188 (team batting average) and they are worse at home hitting only .158. The Rockies overall offensive numbers are very solid, however most of their damage has come at home in the high altitude. On the road Colorado is hitting just .230 and barely averaging 3 RPG. The edge goes to both starting pitchers in this game tonight. Arizona starter Kelly has been lights out allowing just 4 ER’s on the season in his 5 starts (29 innings pitched). He hasn’t allowed a single earned run in 3 of his 5 starts and he ranks 2nd in MLB with a 1.27 ERA. The total runs scored in 4 of his 5 starts this season has been 5 or less. Colorado will send Kuhl to the mound and he’s been the Rockies best starter this season. He’s allowed a total of 5 ER’s this year in his 4 starts spanning 24 innings. He has a 1.90 ERA on the season and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .160 vs Kuhl this season. Even at home in the high altitude Kuhl has proven a top notch pitcher allowing just 3 ER’s in 13 innings this season. This game is on the road but that previous stat speaks to how well he is pitching right now. We think both offenses struggle tonight and this one stays Under 8.5 Runs. |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 211 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 198 total points, Game 2 ended with 222 but based on the field goal attempts, they both should have finished Under the Totals. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 171 field goals, in Game 2 it dropped to 162. League average this season was 176 which contributed to roughly 220PPG. The 76ers offense has struggled without potential MVP Joel Embiid in the lineup for the first two games and he’s been ruled out again for Game 3. The 76ers have shot under 22% from beyond the arc in the series and 44% overall from the field. Miami has had two solid shooting nights on their home floor at 47% overall but expect some struggles on the road in this pivotal Game 3. Philadelphia was the 7th best defense in terms of points allowed at home this season (106.8) while the Heat were the 2nd best team in the league in points allowed on the road at 105.6PPG. Miami was the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season, Philadelphia was 6th slowest and in the playoffs both have been slower yet. This game sets up for an Under wager! |
|||||||
05-05-22 | Marlins +100 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
#957 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Miami +100 over San Diego, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres are not in an ideal situation here having played a doubleheader yesterday in Cleveland. After their 6-5 loss in game 2 @ Cleveland yesterday, San Diego made the long trek home and now must play a game just over 24 hours after their 2nd game of the DH ended yesterday. Not only that, it was the end of a long 8 game road trip for San Diego so they’ve been traveling a lot. Their bullpen could be rather thin tonight after using 8 different relief pitchers in yesterday’s 2 games. The Padres are on a very nice 11-4 run overall but let’s keep in mind over half of those wins (6) have come vs the Reds who are 3-21 on the season. The only team San Diego has beaten during this stretch that currently has a winning record was a 3-2 extra inning win vs the Dodgers, otherwise all 10 of their other wins have come vs teams with losing records. Miami is coming off a tough home series getting swept by suddenly red hot Arizona (7-2 last 9 games). All 3 of those losses for the Marlins came by a single run and prior to those losses they had won 7 of their previous 8 games. We spoke of San Diego’s tough travel spot and while Miami is also traveling, this will be their first road game since April 28th so they are in a much better situation. The Marlins have Luzardo on the hill who has been fantastic in 3 of his 4 starts this season. If we throw out his poor start vs St Louis back in mid April, Luzardo has allowed just 3 ER’s in 16 innings with a whopping 25 strikeouts in those 16 innings. His ERA on the season is a very good 3.10 but he’s pitched better than that with a xERA of 2.38 and an xFIP of just 2.69. San Diego’s starter tonight (Martinez) is the direct opposite with his numbers sitting much better than they should actually be. Martinez has an OK ERA of 4.12 but an xERA of 6.64 and an xFIP of 4.69. Miami also has an edge in most key bullpen categories. At basically even money, we like the Marlins here. |
|||||||
05-04-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - These two teams combined for 235 total points in Game 1 but did it by taking just 120 field goal attempts. That’s insane! The league average for FGA in an average game is 176 this season. The Mavs averaged 1.20-points per possession, Phoenix was even better yet at 1.30PPP. What makes that especially unique is the fact that these two teams finished top 6 in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Phoenix was 3rd in the league allowing just 1.074PPP, Dallas gave up just 1.094PPP. The Mavericks were the slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season while the Suns were 8th fastest but, in the postseason, they’ve preferred a much slower tempo averaging 93.4 possessions per game. We can assume Dallas will shoot better than the 41% they hit in Game 1 but it is highly unlikely the Suns shoot 64% from the field and 50% from deep in Game 2. Granted Game 1 went Over because of the Suns shooting but the three regular season meetings between these two teams all finished with 216 or less points. The Under is the play here. |