Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-22-21 | Oral Roberts +8 v. South Dakota State | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
#761 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +8 over South Dakota State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Too many points here. Last year ORU was +4.5 @ SDSU and won the game outright by 2 points. The Golden Eagles return 5 of their top 6 players from last year and will give South Dakota State problems again this season. ORU won the Summit League tourney last year, went to the NCAA tourney and beat both Ohio State and Florida making the Sweet 16 where they lost by 2 points vs Arkansas. We’re getting value in the number on Oral Roberts here. They’ve already played 2 road games vs teams that are rated higher than SDSU and the Golden Eagles were getting fewer points in BOTH of those games (+8 @ TCU and +7.5 @ Missouri State). SDSU, on the other hand, was just favored by 12 points (just 3 points more than this number) on Monday vs a UMKC team ranked nearly 100 spots lower than Oral Roberts. The Jackrabbits have relied on getting to the FT line a lot this year (111th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ORU doesn’t foul very much. On the other end, the Golden Eagles are a very good 3 point shooting team (31st nationally) and 48% of their points come from deep which is 2nd most in the nation. SDSU is poor at defending the arc (257th) so Oral Roberts will have success offensively. We give ORU a decent shot to pull the upset here and they are getting nearly double digits. Take the points. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
#226 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army -6.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened -3 in favor of Army and is up to -6.5 for good reason. As long as it stays under a TD we like the Cadets in this one. First of all Missouri has some key offensive moves on Tuesday which moved this number. First their top RB Badie, who led the SEC in rushing yards, will not play in this game. That’s huge blow to the offense as he racked up over 1600 rushing yards and 2nd most ground yards for the Tigers this year was Michael Cox who had only 150 yards. Secondly, their starting QB this year Bazelak will not start in this game. He was apparently beaten out in bowl practices by freshman Brady Cook who will start under center. Bazelak threw for over 2500 yards and 16 TD’s this year. Cook threw for 107 yards and 1 TD. Mizzou coaches might be auditioning Cook for a shot at the starting spot next year but that won’t help the offense here. We know Army runs the ball. They rank #2 in YPG rushing (275) and #2 in rush attempts per game. That’s a huge problem for the Tigers as they ended the regular season as one of the worst rush defenses in college football allowing 224 YPG (120th). On top of that, they haven’t faced anything close to an option offense and while they have had time to try and figure it out, their DC Wilks spent the last 14 seasons in the NFL so he hasn’t faced it period. Army is off a disappointing loss to Navy which will help fuel them for this game. We know the Cadets always bring their best in bowl games winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming last year by 3 points vs West Virginia. We like Army to win this one by at least a TD. |
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12-21-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 220.5 | Top | 108-90 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 220.5 Phoenix Suns @ LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - The Lakers are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA but also one of the least efficient with the 25th ranked OEFF at 1.006 points per possession. For our wager though, the Lakers offense has been better in recent games averaging 1.055PPP which is 6th best. Phoenix also likes to play fast with the 5th fastest tempo in the NBA which means a lot of extra possessions in this game. The Suns are also one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA and average 112PPG. The Lakers are coming off a 51% shooting night and are the 8th best shooting team in the league. Phoenix is 2nd in overall team FG% and 5th in 3-point percentage. This regular season game won’t be like their playoff series of a year ago and we predict plenty of points here for an easy OVER. |
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12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova -5.5 over Xavier, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We are siding with one of the best teams in the nation coming off 2 losses. This is a great spot to jump on Nova at home. The Cats lost their last 2 games @ Baylor and @ Creighton, with their most recent game vs the Blue Jays being their worst effort of the season. We look for them to play very well at home in a must win type game early in the season. They have only played 3 home games this season which resulted in wins of 40, 29, and 19 points. They are 35-3 SU their last 38 home games! The Wildcats have prepared themselves well by playing one of the top 10 SOS’s in the country. Nova has already faced FOUR teams ranked in Ken Pom’s top 10 – Baylor, Purdue, UCLA, and Tennessee. The rolled Tennessee and led by double digits in the 2nd half vs both Purdue & UCLA before losing tight games. Xavier is solid but they’ve feasted on home games so far this season. They’ve played just ONE true road game @ Oklahoma State a few weeks ago. Despite shooting a terrible 10 of 50 from 3-point land their last 2 games Villanova is still ranked 8th nationally in efficiency averaging 1.14 points per possession and they are still making a very solid 36.2% of their 3’s on the season. The favorite has covered 13 of the last 17 in this Big East battle and Xavier is 0-6 SU @ Villanova since joining the Big East. We like Nova to bounce back in a big way at home tonight. |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks +7 v. Rams | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
#337 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +7 over LA Rams, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Seattle is fairly healthy for this game, with the exception of WR Lockett, while we still don’t know who is in or out for the LA Rams due to Covid protocols. It looks like LA’s TE Higbee and a starting OL will most likely miss this one along with a few key defensive players. LA won the first meeting @ Seattle by 9 but that was the game QB Russell Wilson injured his finger and he sat out the entire 2nd half. Geno Smith took played a significant role for the first time since 2017 and Seattle still only lost by 9. Wilson is now back and getting healthier every week. The Seattle offense, which really struggled when Wilson first came back, has now put up 63 points the last 2 weeks. Their season long offensive stats are misleading with Wilson sitting out 3.5 games and not being fully healthy when he did come back. The defense has been flying under the radar but playing very well allowing 23 points or less in 8 straight games. They’ve won 2 straight including a win over a very good San Francisco team 2 weeks ago. The Rams seem to have gotten back on track after a 3 game losing streak but we’re not so sure. They beat Jacksonville 2 weeks ago in a win that doesn’t mean much as the Jags are terrible and obviously had internal problems. Last week they beat Arizona but were outgained by almost 100 yards in that game. The Cards then proceeded to lose @ Detroit by 18 points so maybe that LA win over Arizona wasn’t what it was made out to be. The last 6 games in this NFC West rivalry have all had a spread of 3 points or less. Now we’re getting a full TD with Seattle. For comparison’s sake, Seattle was +3 @ Green Bay in Wilson’s first game back from injury. This number is too high. The Rams overvalued losing 5 of their last 6 ATS as a favorite and 7 of 10 as a chalk this season. Seattle keeps this close. |
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12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State OVER 59 | Top | 52-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
#221/222 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59 Points – Kent State vs Wyoming, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Kent has one of the top offenses in the country (8th in total offense) and one of the worst defenses in the country (122nd in total defense). They also play at an extremely fast pace ranking behind only Western KY and Ole Miss when it comes to other bowl teams. Throw out their game vs FCS VMI and this defense has allowed at least 30 points in 9 of their 11 games while the offense has scored at least 30 in 7 of their last 8 games. The Wyoming offense struggled at times this year but that should all change today facing the worst defense they’ve seen this year. Mid season with Chambers at QB, the Cowboys went on a 3 game stretch scoring just 14, 0, and 3 points facing all defenses much better than Kent including 2 in the top 30. That stretch really affected their overall offensive numbers. Wyoming made the switch at QB to Williams and he averaged 25 PPG in his 5 starts. They had great offensive success in their 2 games in the non-conference vs MAC teams the Cowboys scored 50 vs Northern Illinois and 45 vs Ball State. Both teams run the ball very well (Kent 4th nationally / Wyoming 27th) and that is a weakness of both defenses (Kent 106th nationally / Wyoming 95th). Both teams will run at will here opening up the passing game for big plays. This game is in Boise and the weather looks great with temps in the mid 30’s and little wind. Both are cold weather teams so temps in the mid 30’s won’t affect either side. Our projections have both teams topping 30 points which puts this one OVER the total. |
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12-20-21 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 223 | Top | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The value in the number is what has us on this Under as this O/U is set 4-points higher than what it should be according to our math model. Consider this, the Kings just faced the Spurs and Grizzlies who are similar to the Warriors in terms of pace of play, but neither of those teams defend like the Warriors. Golden State in #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.018 points per possession. Oddsmakers had posted O/U numbers on the Kings/Spurs, Kings/Grizzlies games of 227.5 and 221 so in the ballpark of this number. The Kings will have a tough time scoring here with a bottom half of the league offensive efficiency rating and team that doesn’t shoot particularly well at 45.4% overall and 33.5% from 3-point line. Last night the Kings shot 51% from the field and 56% from the 3-point line which was obviously an aberration. Golden State has held 5 of their last ten opponents to 100 or less points and haven’t put up gaudy offensive numbers themselves with 7 games of scoring 107 or less points. With players out for both teams we see this being a low scoring affair. BET UNDER. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
#331/332 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Minnesota vs Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Minnesota offense has to be licking their chops entering this game facing a Chicago defense that has struggled the last 2 weeks and is now down a number of key players. The Bears potentially will be without all 4 starting DB’s + 3 reserves with that unit. The top 4 are currently on the reserve Covid list and unless cleared by Monday they won’t be playing in this game. The defense has been struggling anyway allowing 29 or more points in 5 of their last 7 games including 78 the last 2 weeks alone. The only 2 offenses they were able to slow down were Detroit & Baltimore who rank 28th and 19th in YPP offense. Minnesota ranks 7th in the NFL averaging 5.9 YPP and they’ve put up at least 26 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Defensively the Vikings are headed downhill as they’ve given up at least 28 points in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8. They are allowing a TD on almost 28% of opponents red zone plays which is the worst mark in the NFL. Chicago’s offense is coming around. They put up 30 points last week on Green Bay and averaged 6 YPP. A week earlier they scored 22 on Arizona. Those 2 teams rank 5th and 6th in the NFL in total defense. Minnesota ranks 29th in that category. We expect the Bears offense to play well and put up points here. The weather in Chicago looks very good for this time of year with temps in the mid 30’s and light winds at game time. Take the OVER in this one. |
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12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +12.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 54-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
#306227 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland Eastern Shore +12.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 7 PM ET - UMES is undervalued right now as they step into this game with a perfect 7-0 ATS record. They have played well on the road winning 2 games already as an underdog and losing by 12 or less @ UConn, @ St Joes, @ Liberty, and @ Campbell, all teams rated higher than this Charlotte squad. UMES has some momentum winning 3 in a row and they’ve had 9 days off to rest up and get ready for this one. Charlotte just played Friday in a huge game for them @ Wake Forest. They lost by 3 but the final was misleading as Wake led the game by 19 before Charlotte made a furious comeback. With only a few days rest we anticipate a letdown here. The 49ers are 5-5 this year and their home wins have come by 2, 7 and 12 points along with a 17 point home loss vs Davidson. Not one of their wins this season has come by more than 12 points. The 49ers are poor defensively ranking 325th in eFG% allowed so they have a tough time pulling away in their games. UMES doesn’t have great overall stats on the year but they don’t turn the ball over and they shoot the 3 quite well at 35%. Facing a Charlotte defense that allows opponents to hit 35.6% (ranked 266th) we like Maryland Eastern Shore to hang around in this game. Take the points. |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
#220 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion +9.5 over Tulsa, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - We can look at ODU’s year almost as 2 separate seasons. They started the year losing 6 of their first 7 and ended winning 5 straight. The positive run came with the Monarchs switched starting QB’s with Wolff taking over for their game vs Western Kentucky. He led them to a 5-1 record with their only loss coming vs Western Kentucky which wasn’t a surprise with WKU’s powerful offense (they beat App St in bowl game). In those 6 games Wolff threw for over 1700 yards with 10 TD’s. Prior to that they had thrown for only 850 yards and 5 TD’s in 6 games. They also inserted RB Olson right around that time and he ran for over 100 yards in 6 of his 7 starts. Throwing out their game vs FCS Hampton, the Monarchs averaged 19 PPG over their first 5 and when they made the switch at QB & RB they averaged 33 PPG including a win @ Middle Tenn St who just beat Toledo in their bowl game as 10 point dogs. In fact, Conference USA teams have shown the league may have been underrated as they’ve been underdogs in all 5 of their bowl games thus far, winning 3 of those games outright with a 4-1 ATS mark. Tulsa was 6-6 as well on the season but 5 of their 6 wins came by 8 points or less. The only double digit win they had this season was vs Temple, one of the worst teams in the nation. They were outscored on the year (26-27 average score) and their QB Brin had a tendency to give it away throwing 16 picks on the season – the most in the nation. Tulsa also comes into this game without 3 of their assistant coaches who’ve moved on including their DC. We like the way ODU is playing with confidence the 2nd half of the season and we like their shot to win this game outright. We’ll take the points as a nice cushion. |
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12-19-21 | Mavs v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have made great strides defensively this season and it’s showing in their record. Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 28th a year ago. The Wolves are averaging 108.7PPG which is 12th best in the NBA and are the 10th best rebounding team. Dallas is 26th in scoring this year and the 24th worst offense rebound team in the NBA. Dallas does hold teams to 104.6PPG this year but a lot of that has to do with how slow they play (3rd slowest in the NBA). The Mavs have the 22nd ranked FG% defense in the league. The Wolves have three impressive wins in a row over Portland, Denver and the Lakers most recently by 18-points. The Mavs are coming off a 3-point loss to that same Lakers team. Lay the points with Minnesota. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons v. 49ers -9 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
#324 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -9 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - While these 2 teams have similar records – SF 7-6 / Atlanta 6-7 – this is a mismatch which is why the line sits where it is. The Niners rate as the 8th best team in the NFL DVOA per Football Outsiders ranking 6th in offense and 8th in defense. Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL DVOA and 29th in offense, 30th in defense. Atlanta has beaten the lower tier teams in the NFL (Jacksonville, NY Jets, NYG, etc…) but when facing solid teams, they’ve been smoked. They’ve played only 5 games (out of 13) this season vs teams that currently have a winning record. The Birds are 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games and they’ve been outscored 178-51 in those games for an average score of 35-10! All of those losses came by at least 15 points and they were not fluky losses as Atlanta was outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.4 YPP in those 5 games combined. SF is playing their best football of the year winning 4 of their last 5 despite being on the road 3 of the last 4 weeks. They’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 7 teams that are currently above .500 with 5 of those teams landing in the top 10 overall DVOA. Despite the difference in SOS, the Niners have a +0.5 YPP differential and a +28 point differential on the season while Atlanta is -0.5 YPP with a -108 point differential (2nd worst in the NFC ahead of only Detroit). Even in the 6 games Atlanta has won this year, they were outgained in 5 of those contests. San Fran is making a push for the playoffs and this is a crucial game at home. They are facing an Atlanta team that is much worse than their record and playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. We like the Niners to roll to a double digit win in this game. |
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12-18-21 | Baylor v. Oregon UNDER 135.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* 707/708 UNDER 135.5 Baylor at Oregon 10 PM ET - Baylor’s defense is stifling as they allow just 54.1PPG on the season and have held all of their opponents to less than 63 points and three of them to less than 50-points. The Bears have the 3rd best overall defensive efficiency rating allowing .861PPP. Another key factor here is pace and Baylor ranks 190th in adjusted tempo. The Bears defend the 3-point line as well as anyone allowing 27.9% on the season and 43.3% inside the arc. Oregon has gotten off to a disappointing start with a 6-5 record, but they’ve faced the 65th toughest schedule to date and still have the 104th best defensive efficiency rating. Oregon knows to have a shot at winning this game they must control the tempo and keep this a low scoring game. The Ducks ae 308th in adjusted tempo this season and on average take 17.6 seconds to get a shot up which ranks 215th. Oregon 5-1 to the Under their last six at home against a team with a winning road record, Bears 4-1 Under their last five versus a team with a winning home record. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – New England vs Indianapolis, Saturday at 8:20 PM ET - We understand the Pats defense has been rolling allowing just 10 PPG over their last 7 but we believe those numbers are drastically over inflated based on competition. If we throw out their game @ Buffalo in which the weather was brutal (snow & 40+ MPH wind), the Patriots have faced just ONE team ranked in the top half of the NFL in total offense during that stretch. That was the Chargers who hit them for 24 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play. Tonight they face an Indy offense that is rolling scoring at least 30 points in 7 of their last 8 games. We think the Colts will put up numbers on offense here. Much is being made of the New England defense, however their offense has been very solid. They have scored at least 24 points in 9 straight if we throw out their game @ Buffalo which was discussed above. They averaged 33 PPG during that run. Both of these offenses rank in the top 8 in 3rd down conversion % and in the top 10 in red zone scoring attempts per game. We look for both of these teams to get to at least the mid 20’s which puts this over the total |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
#215 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -7 over Utah State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - USU could be a bit overvalued here after destroying San Diego State in the MWC Championship game a few weeks ago. SDSU was not at full strength for the game with a number of players out with Covid which not only affected the game, but their practice situation leading up to the game. USU played the much weaker schedule especially down the stretch where they faced just 1 bowl team in their final 7 regular season games and that was Wyoming, a game USU lost 44-17. The Aggies defense does not match up well with Oregon State’s offense. They ranked 82nd nationally stopping the run (allowed 163 YPG) yet faced only 3 teams ranked in the top 40 in rushing and 6 teams ranked below 95th in rushing. In their games vs top 40 rushing teams they allowed 437 yards on the ground (Air Force), 363 (Wyoming), and 221 (BYU). Oregon State averages 219 YPG rushing which is 13th nationally and will control the trenches here. The overall numbers favor OSU as well despite playing the much tougher schedule. The Beavers finished with a YPP differential of +0.7 and USU was +0.2 for the year. Motivation is always something that needs to be addressed in early bowl games and both will bring their best here. Many times a team from a Power 5 conference may not be thrilled to be playing a team from a lesser conference but that won’t be the case here as Oregon State has not been to a bowl game since 2014 so they are thrilled to be here. If both teams bring it, OSU is the better team and should win by more than a TD. |
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12-18-21 | Knicks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 over NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - Something isn’t quite right with this number and it looks very much like a trap to bet on the Knicks. So, we’ll side with Boston here minus the points. Granted the Celtics are coming off a game last night, but they also had 3 days off prior to Friday’s action so lack of rest isn’t an issue. The Knicks started the season out hot with a 5-1 SU record in October but since then they’ve struggled with an 8-15 run. In the Knicks most recent nine games they have just 2 wins and they came at the expense of the 9-20 Rockets and 10-17 Spurs. On paper the Celtics look similar to the Knicks with a 1-5 SU record in their last five games but take a look at that schedule. They’ve faced the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, Bucks and Warriors. Those five teams all rank top 9 in defensive efficiency and now the Celtics face a New York team that is 22nd in DEFF. Boston has advantages on the offensive end of the floor with the 13th highest scoring average compared to the Knicks 23rd ranked average. New York beat Boston in October at home by 4 in OT and we like the Celtics to get a measure of revenge here with a double-digit win. |
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12-17-21 | St. Mary's -2 v. San Diego State | Top | 53-63 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -2 over San Diego State, Friday at 10 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix. St Mary’s has been waiting for this one. That’s because when these two faced off last year (first time in 10 years) SDSU embarrassed the Gaels 74-49. St Mary’s returned 100% of their minutes from last year so this veteran team was all there last year during that debacle. They are 10-2 this year and have already beaten 3 top 100 teams. San Diego State is 0-3 vs top 100 teams this year with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. The Aztecs are a poor shooting team which will be a problem here vs the 8th most efficient defense in the nation. SDSU ranks 302nd in FG%, 312th in 3 point FG%, and 320th in scoring. On top of that they only make 66% of their FT’s. San Diego State is 6-3 on the year but they’ve also had some luck on their side as their opponents have only shot 60% from the FT in games vs the Aztecs which is the 4th worst in the nation. Both teams are very good defensively but St Mary’s is the much better shooting team, extra motivated, and one of the more veteran teams in college basketball. This number is too small in our opinion. Take St Mary’s. |
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12-17-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 223.5 | Top | 128-126 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 223.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - These two teams are top 11 in the NBA in scoring with the Spurs averaging 108.8PPG while the Jazz put up 115.6PPG but each does it in different manners. The Spurs play fast with the 6th fastest tempo in the NBA while the Jazz play slower but are the #1 efficiency team in the league. San Antonio wants to get out in transition with the 6th best fast break scoring average in the NBA, which has also helped them own the 5th best field goal percentage in the league at 46.7%.. The Jazz are 1st in scoring, 1st in overall FG% and 3rd in 3-point percentage. Utah is averaging 122PPG their last five games with an incredible 1.244-points per possession. Yes, we know the Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Spurs are not. In the end, both teams score plenty here for this to get OVER the total. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
#203 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina -10.5 over Northern Illinois, Friday at 6 PM ET - Based on this year’s stats and our film study, Coastal is the much better team in this match up. We also think there is some line value with Coastal. They were just favored at South Alabama by 14.5 to end the season and now laying just 10.5 on a neutral vs Northern Illinois team we have power rated almost dead even with South Alabama. CC had just 2 losses this year by a combined 5 points. They were +165 YPG and +2.3 YPP on the season with a average winning margin of +20 points per game. NIU won the MAC but they’ve been fairly shaky all season. If you throw out their game vs FCS Maine, the Huskies were outgained by 82 YPG on the season and had a YPP differential of -0.7. Despite winning the MAC they were outscored on the season as well. Their numbers equated to a .500 or below team. CC is far superior defensively allowing 122 fewer YPG than NIU. Offensively they are a bit closer however on a YPP basis the Chanticleers average a full 1.6 YPP more than the Huskies. Coastal seems to be motivated for this game after losing in this bowl last year in OT vs Liberty. QB McCall, who leads the nation in passing efficiency and yards per pass attempt (12.2), has stated they really want this game for the seniors and they are completely focused on winning this bowl game. If both teams play their “A” game, this is a blowout. The only chance NIU has is if Coastal is flat and uninterested or they turn the ball over a bunch. Lay the points. |
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12-16-21 | Wizards v. Suns OVER 212.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 212.5 Washington Wizards vs. Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - The line/money indicators suggest this game is going Over and our math models project 219 points being scored. Phoenix is missing leading scorer Booker but Ayton is back and they have plenty of other options including Chris Paul, Bridges and Crowder. We like the Suns field goal attempts in recent games which has been 93 or more in four straight games. Phoenix is the 5th fastest paced team in the NBA and the home team here which means they get the tempo they want. Washington is off a game last night in Sacramento who is similar to the Suns in pace and offensive efficiency and the Kings scored 119-points. Washington has allowed 113 or more points in 6 of their last seven games and their defensive efficiency in their last five games is 26th worst in the league. When playing without rest this season the Wizards are 4-0 to the Over with those games averaging 225PPG. This one goes OVER rather easily. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3 over LA Chargers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now winning 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. After struggling early in the season, their defense has been outstanding allowing single digits in 4 of their last 5 games and they’ve allowed just 13 PPG over their last 8 games. LA won the first meeting of the season @ KC 30-24. However the Chiefs outgained the Chargers but had 4 turnovers in the game (0 for LA) including 3 giveaways inside the LA 40 yard line. While KC’s defense has kicked it in high gear, the Chargers defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed. They have allowed an average of 29 PPG over their last 9 games. LA really has very little to no home field advantage as many times their opponent has as many fans in the stadium as the Chargers do. They are just 3-3 SU at home with their 3 wins coming vs Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and Cleveland, all teams that are currently .500 or below. The Chiefs are 3-2 SU on the road this year outgained their opponents 445 to 337 and outscoring them by an average of 30-24. The road team in this AFC West battle has won 8 of the last 10 meetings outright. As these 2 battle for the lead in the division (KC up by 1 game over LA) we’ll side with the experienced team, QB, and coach who is used to this situation. Lay the FG with KC. |
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12-15-21 | Wizards v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 105-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +2.5 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Kings are coming off a couple road losses and return home where they had won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The Kings held a player only meeting after the recent 3 game road trip and aired some differences regarding effort amongst the team. Now that they are back at home, we expect a much better effort in this one. Washington meanwhile is coming off a tough game in the higher altitude of Denver on Monday night and will be shorthanded again here without Kyle Kuzma who is in Covid protocol. The Wizards opened the season by winning 6 of their first eleven road games but have since lost four of five away from home. Washington has the 21st worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -3.9PPG. If you look at overall season statistics it shows Washington has an advantage defensively but when you focus on their last five games the Kings have the better defensive efficiency numbers. Offensively the Kings have been better all season long and in their most recent five games too at 1.126-points per possession. Sacramento gets it done tonight at home. |
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12-15-21 | South Dakota State v. Missouri State -2.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -2.5 over South Dakota State, Wed at 7 PM ET - Terrible spot for South Dakota State here. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off an upset win over Washington State (game played in Spokane). They won by just 3 points in a game they shot 62% from beyond the arc with Washington State hitting only 25% of their triples. Wash State also played without one of their better players (Jackson) in that game. Prior to that win, SDSU lost @ Idaho by 14 on Wednesday. That’s an Idaho team that ranks below 300 and whose only win previous to beating the Jackrabbits was over something called George Fox University. Missouri State returns all 5 starters from a team that went 17-7 last season. One of those starters is out with an injury but they are experienced on their bench as well. The Bears are currently rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC only behind Loyola Chicago. They are a solid shooting team that is facing a most likely tired and terrible defensive team in South Dakota State – ranks below 250th in most major defensive categories. If they need to protect a lead late MSU hits 80% from the line as a team. Great spot for the Bears facing a SDSU team that has traveled to Idaho, then Washington, and now Missouri all in the span of a week. |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +3 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +3 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Scheduling certainly favors the home team Blazers as the Suns are off a game last night against the Clippers. That’s significant considering the multitude of injuries the Suns currently have with 6 players out including starters Booker and Ayton. Portland has been much better at home than on the road this year with a 10-5 SU season record and four of those losses have come this month. Portland is coming off a home loss as a favorite and primed for this huge Western Conference showdown. This will be the third meeting of the season with the home team winning both and 6 of the last seven meetings. Phoenix has been dominating this season but that is with a full supporting cast. Not tonight. Bet the Blazers. |
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12-14-21 | Georgia State v. Mississippi State -9 | Top | 50-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -9 over Georgia State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - MSU is off back to back losses vs Minnesota & Colorado State and they really need this win at home. Each of those losses was decided in the final seconds as MSU was tied with Minnesota with under 1 minute remaining and they led CSU by 8 with less than 6 minutes remaining and lost by 3. The Bulldogs were 6-1 SU prior to those losses with their only setback coming vs Louisville. Georgia State is 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming in OT @ High Point. The 2 top 100 teams they faced on the road both routed this team with Richmond winning by 16 and Rhode Island winning by 35. Both of those teams rank lower than this Mississippi State team. GSU plays terrible defense which is why they struggle on the road. The Panthers rank 357th in eFG% defense and 355th in 3 point FG defense allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 43% from deep. MSU is 68th nationally in defensive efficiency and will be the highest rated defense that Georgia State has faced this year. MSU also has a huge size advantage (69th nationally in average height with GSU 348th in that category) and should control the glass on both ends. The Bulldogs shoot very well at home (50% overall & 41% from deep) and they will have their way vs this poor GSU defense. Must win for MSU off 2 losses and they play with urgency tonight. |
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12-14-21 | Islanders +107 v. Red Wings | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders +105 over Detroit Red Wings, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - We think the Islanders are going to be a team that should have the "buy sign" on them in the coming weeks. They had a brutal early season schedule with their first 13 games of the season played away from home. Then their team got ravaged by a combination of injuries and covid-19. However, this team has started to get healthy and get a lot of guys back and they are playing much better this month. We are well aware of the fact that Matthew Barzal has been put into covid protocols and will miss this game but that has flip flopped the line from the Islanders being favored to now being a dog and this is tremendous line value here. Brock Nelson recently returned to the ice so the Islanders had been without him, among many others, and Nelson can fill in nicely on the top line in the absence of Barzal. Certainly Barzal is a special player but the point is that Nelson is back now and a lot of other Islanders players have also made their return in recent weeks. As a result, the Islanders have had only 1 loss in regulation in their 6 games this month and that loss was by a single goal. Yes they have had some OT/SO losses and that won't do us any good here but they are turning the corner and this team is much better than their record shows and they do enter this game off a win and off wins in 2 of their last 3 and they have revenge against the Red Wings from a loss in OT earlier this month at Detroit. The Islanders are a respectable 6-4-3 last 13 road games and the Red Wings are cooling off and have lost 3 straight games all by a margin of 3 or more goals! This is a case of two teams trending opposite directions right now and, even without Barzal, the Islanders get it done here! Take the plus money with the road dog here |
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12-13-21 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Washington Wizards @ Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The Wizards are averaging 105.7PPG on the season which ranks 23rd in the NBA. Denver is scoring less at 105.5PPG (24th). Both are near average or below in offensive efficiency and each rank 17th or worse in 3-point shooting under 34.6%. When it comes to defensive efficiency numbers the Nuggets rank 15th and Washington is 19th so again near average. The key here is the pace of play as both like to play slow. The Nuggets are 28th in pace of play at 96 possessions per game, Washington is 24th at 96.1. Denver is coming off two straight high scoring games but that was against the fast paced Spurs team. The Under is 4-0 the last four meetings in Denver between these two teams. Bet UNDER |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -2.5 over LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams simply aren’t playing very well. Prior to last week’s win over Jacksonville they had lost 5 straight vs the number by 62 points losing by an average of 12 points to the number. They are 5-4 SU over their last 9 games with their wins coming vs Houston, Jacksonville, Detroit, NY Giants, and Seattle with Geno Smith at QB. The first 3 listed rank 29th, 30th, and 31st DVOA on Football Outsiders. Anytime they’ve faced a team with a pulse as of late, they’ve come up short (losses vs GB, Arizona, SF, and Tennessee over the last 9 games). QB Stafford has a bad back and sore arm and it has showed in his performance as 5 of his 9 interceptions on the season have come in the last 4 games. The Rams also have Covid issues right now with starting RT and Center out along with starting RB Henderson. Arizona came off bye 2 weeks ago and they are much healthier then the Rams right now. QB Murray is back and he has his full complement of WR’s in the line up. With Murray at QB they have scored 30+ points in 7 of 9 games. Cards are 10-2 on the season (9-3 ATS) with their only losses coming by 3 points vs Green Bay and at home vs Carolina when Murray was out. That was in fact their last home game which was nearly a month ago. Arizona will be ready to make amends for that embarrassing loss. These 2 met in LA this year and the Cardinals were + total yardage, + yards per pass attempt, + yards per rush attempt and won the game 37-20. Arizona is 4-0 both SU & ATS vs division foes this year and they get another win and cover on Monday. |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
#877/878 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 131 Points – Rhode Island vs UW Milwaukee, Monday at 8 PM ET - Two slow paced, solid defensive teams facing off in this game. URI ranks 314th in pace and their defense allows just 62 PPG on the season. They rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 18th in eFG% defense. They have allowed only 1 team this season to reach 70 points and they are facing a UWM team that ranks 318th in scoring averaging 63 PPG. Milwaukee’s offensive struggles have come vs a weak defensive slate of opponents. 7 of Milwaukee’s 9 opponents currently rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. URI will be just the 3rd team they’ve faced this year that ranks inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency and the Panthers were able to score just 45 and 54 points in the other 2 games. UWM ranks 275th in pace and their defense is the strength of their team ranking 58th in eFG% allowed. They match up very well defensively vs Rhode Island as the Rams score the vast majority of their points inside the arc and at the FT line. Milwaukee’s D has defended inside the arc very well (26th nationally) and they foul very little. The Rams offense has topped 72 points just twice this season and those games were vs fast paced teams with very poor defenses (Georgia State & Bryant). The projected final here is right around 70-62 in favor of URI. Our projections have both teams coming up short of those projections. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -2.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This game sets up very nicely for the Browns. They are coming off a bye and they lost @ Baltimore 16-10 the game before their bye week. In that game the Ravens ran 20 more offensive snaps (77 to 57) and still couldn’t pull away for a comfortable win at home. Cleveland was outgained in total yardage which would be expected when you run 20 fewer plays, however on a yards per play basis the Browns outgained the Ravens 4.6 to 3.9. Baltimore comes in a bit demoralized after losing @ Pittsburgh last week and the way they lost makes it really tough to bounce back. The Ravens scored a TD with only a few seconds left and decided to go for 2 points rather than kick the XP and go into OT. The Ravens offense has been really bad over the last month and a half or so. They have been held under 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games and over the last 4 weeks they’ve scored a TD on just 5 of 45 possessions (11%) which is the worst in the league during that stretch. It will be tough for them on offense again facing the 4th rated defense in the NFL on Sunday who just held them to 3.9 yards per play 2 weeks ago. Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been since early in the season coming off last week’s bye. Both RB’s Chubb and Hunt are back. QB Mayfield was able to rest his ailing shoulder for the first time this season. The Browns are 6-6 on the season yet they’ve outgained their opponents 5.7 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play. Baltimore is 8-4 but they’ve been outgained 5.5 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play. The Ravens are not nearly as good as their record might indicate and we like Cleveland to win by at least a FG at home on Sunday. |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans UNDER 41 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Seattle vs Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We have the 2 worst offenses in the NFL in this game with Houston 32nd in total offense and Seattle 31st. The Texans are averaging 13.7 PPG and they’ve been held to single digits in HALF of their games this season (6). Over their last 7 games the Texans are averaging 10 PPG and have been held to 14 or less 5 times. They are last in the NFL averaging 4.4 YPP which is the worst mark in the league since the 2018 season. Seattle’s defense should shut this team down. The Seahawks have been playing quite well on that side of the ball holding 7 straight opponents to 23 points or less. That includes very good offensive teams Green Bay, San Francisco, and Arizona. If they can hold those teams in check, they sure as hell can limit this Houston offense. While the Seahawks have been good defensively, they have not been so on offense. Russell Wilson is not close to 100% and it shows with this team scoring 0, 13, 15, and 30 points since he returned. Last week’s 30 point effort was VERY misleading as they scored on a 74 yard fake punt and a safety. So the offense only scored 21 but averaged just 4.8 YPP. Houston’s defense is the strength of their team ranking 10th in DVOA per Football Outsiders. Both of these teams are averaging 40 total points in their games this year and ALL of those games were vs teams that ranked higher in total offense. The teams have played 24 games combined this season and only 6 have gone Over the Total. There is a decent chance neither of these teams reach 20 points in this game and we like the Under. |
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12-11-21 | Houston v. Alabama -1 | Top | 82-83 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#716 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Houston, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Big game here and we give Bama the edge at home. The Crimson Tide have a record of 16-1 SU at home since start of last year and they are 12-5 ATS in those games. Their average margin of victory in those 17 home games was +15 points per game. This year they are 4-0 here with an average margin of victory of +19 points per game. They have had a week off since beating Gonzaga in Seattle 91-82 last Saturday. The Tide dominated that game vs last year’s National Champions holding as much as an 18 point lead in the 2nd half. That that game was in Gonzaga’s back yard. This will be their first home game since November 17th when they beat Oakland, the top team in the Horizon League, by 27 points. We absolutely respect Houston and know they are a very good team, but this will be their first true road game of the season. It’s also been almost 3 weeks since they’ve played a legitimate opponent with their last 3 games coming against teams ranked 336th, 314th, and 231st. The Cougars have 3 wins vs top 100 opponents this year, however all 3 of those teams are struggling this season (Virginia, Butler, and Oregon). They lost to Wisconsin on a neutral court for their only setback. Houston had an outstanding 28-4 record last season but they only played 8 true road games and they were 5-3 SU in those games with losses to East Carolina, Tulsa, and Wichita State. Two evenly matched teams here and home court will be a huge factor. Bama gets the win. |
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12-11-21 | Jazz v. Wizards OVER 218 | Top | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 218 Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz are quietly flying under the radar right now with everyone focused on the Suns and the Warriors in the West, but Utah has won 6 straight and 10 of their last twelve. In the most recent 6 game winning streak they have averaged 126PPG with an efficiency rating of 1.288PPP. The Wizards have seen their scoring go up in their last five games averaging 107PPG compared to their season average of 105PPG. Washington has also allowed more in their most recent games allowing 111PPG their last five. Both teams can shoot it with the Jazz holding the #1 FG percentage in the NBA at 47.9% while the Wizards are 9th at 46.2%. The Jazz are on a 5-1 Over streak, Washington is Over in 6 of their last seven. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
#103 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +7.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - Army is already locked into a winning season, a bowl game, and they will retain the Commander In Chief trophy no matter the outcome of this game. This is Navy’s bowl game. Army has a solid 8-3 record but they’ve been a terrible investment as a favorite going 1-4 ATS in that role this season and 58-84 ATS in that role dating all the way back to 1980. Navy is just 3-8 SU (7-4 ATS) entering this game but they’ve played much better over the last 5 or 6 weeks. During that stretch they beat a bowl bound Tulsa team, lost to a bowl bound East Carolina team by 3 and early upset Cincinnati losing by a TD but outgained the Bearcats by 37 yards. Army was outgained by 4 of their last 5 FBS opponents putting up more yardage than only UMass who finished the season with a 1-9 record. Both teams obviously love to run the ball but both defenses know how to defend this offense. It’s not a novelty to these teams which is why these games are almost always low scoring (total set at 34). A low scoring game gives extra value to the dog especially one getting more than a TD. Seven of the last ten meetings between these two rivals have been decided by a TD or less. Navy brings everything they have in their final game of the season and keeps it close. Take the points. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - I’ll start by saying this, I hate betting on the Lakers as I simply don’t trust them to play hard every night, which is a byproduct of their best player not being the hardest worker in the gym. Tonight I will make an exception as I do feel the Lakers will put forth a maximum effort against the Thunder. OKC has beaten the Lakers twice this season and came from behind in both after trailing by 19 and 26 in each game. Those embarrassing losses should have L.A. focused tonight, not to mention they are coming off a loss last night to Memphis. The Lakers were just a 4-point favorite in Memphis and are now laying just 5-points to the 8-win Thunder. OKC has won two straight, but one of those came at the 4-20 Pistons expense, while the other was against a Raptors team coming off two big wins over Washington and Milwaukee. Prior to their two wins the Thunder had lost 8 straight, two of which came against a bad Rockets team. The Lakers have a slight edge in defensive efficiency and huge advantage offensively as they rank 5th in scoring compared to an OKC team averaging just 99.3PPG which ranks 30th in the NBA. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Pittsburgh, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Love this situation for the Vikings. They are coming off an embarrassing loss @ Detroit giving the Lions their first win of the season. Detroit scored on the final play of the game for the 29-27 win. The Vikes outgained the Lions 6.0 to 5.2 YPP in that loss. It was the 2nd straight setback for Minnesota after losing @ San Francisco a week earlier putting this team in must win mode at home on Thursday. Let’s not forget the 2 games prior to those losses the Vikings beat the Chargers on the road and the Packers at home. Pittsburgh is coming off a gigantic division 20-19 win beat Baltimore by 1 point when the Ravens decided to go for the win and a 2 point conversion in the final seconds but came up inches short. Now going on the road on a short week after a very physical division battle is not ideal. Prior to squeaking by Baltimore the Steelers tied Detroit at home, lost @ LA Chargers (outgained by 3.1 YPP!), and lost 41-10 @ Cincinnati. The Steelers were +6 in their game @ LA Chargers and +4 @ Cincinnati and now +3 @ Minnesota, a team that ranks ahead of both those teams DVOA? Last week’s loss @ Detroit is giving us nice value here with the Vikings. Despite Minnesota’s 5-7 record (Pitt is 6-5-1), the Vikes rank 11th overall DVOA (12 spots ahead of Pitt), are better defensively (DVOA - 17th to 20th), better offensively (DVOA - 8th to 20th) and they’ve played the tougher schedule to date. Minnesota has a + point differential while Pittsburgh, despite being 1 game above .500, has a point differential of -42. The Minnesota defense was missing their top DB last week with Patrick Peterson out in Covid protocol but he returns this week. The Vikings are receiving tons of criticism in the Minneapolis area after their loss last week and now they are in must win mode on Thursday. We think they come out and play very well and pick up a win & cover over the banged up Steelers. |
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12-09-21 | Lightning +121 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 5-3 | Win | 121 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay +120 over Toronto, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET - The Maple Leafs are playing well overall and just ahead of the Lightning in the Atlantic Division. However, Tampa Bay is certainly showing signs they are absolutely not ready to be dethroned yet as Stanley Cup Champs after winning each of the last two Cups and continuing to play well this season even without Kucherov for much of it and without Point for the last few weeks - both guys still out. This is also a revenge game for the Bolts after losing 2-1 at Toronto in OT early last month. The Lightning enter this game having won 7 of last 9 games and the big key is they have allowed a total of only 7 goals in their last 6 wins. Their strong defensive play and netminding will be the difference in this one. Toronto enters having lost 2 of last 3 games and having allowed 3 or more goals in 4 straight games. In fact, the Leafs have allowed an average of 4 goals in their last 4 games. This looks like a great spot for Tampa Bay and, while each of these clubs is without a couple players currently, the Lightning could get Cernak back tonight. Just that fact he is so close to returning, whether he plays or not tonight, is also a mental boost for this club. Look for the visitors to get their revenge for that 2-1 OT loss. By the way, Marner assisted on both goals in that game and he is currently out for the Leafs with a shoulder injury and that is a big loss for a team in a big game like this. We don’t see the Maple Leafs winning two in a row over the 2x defending champs. Take the plus money with the road dog here. |
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12-09-21 | Texas v. Seton Hall +2.5 | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
#852 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall +2.5 over Texas, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here in our opinion. This line opened Texas -2 and we have Seton Hall power rated as a 2-point favorite. Texas is 6-1 but they’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 185 this season. That was a double digit loss vs Gonzaga. The Horns also have played one 1 road game this year and haven’t been away from home since November 13th. This is a tough spot for them to be favored against an undervalued Seton Hall team. We were on the Pirates earlier this year when they were a dog @ Michigan and won outright. They’ve played the tougher schedule having already faced 2 top 20 teams and 5 ranked inside the top 140. Seton Hall’s only loss this season was by 3 points vs Ohio State, who just beat Duke a week ago. The Pirates are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 4 senior starters and 3 more upperclassmen who contribute off the bench. They play outstanding defense (30th in efficiency & 15th in eFG% defense) and they are one of the better rebounding teams in the country. The Longhorns are integrating a number of new transfers into the rotation and new head coach Chris Beard is still perfecting his schemes on both ends of the court with this team. Seton Hall is by far the best team Texas has played in nearly a month and we don’t see the Horns winning this game on the road. Take the points. |
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12-08-21 | Celtics v. Clippers -3 | Top | 111-114 | Push | 0 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3 over Boston Celtics, 10:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Celtics who are coming off a marquee game against the Lakers last night and are playing their 4th game in 6 days. The Clippers have had two days off and will be the much fresher team in this match up. The Clippers have underachieved thus far, but they have won 3 of their last four games including a pair of road wins against the Lakers and Blazers. The Celtics are 7-7 SU on the road this season but only 3 of those wins came against a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 40-22 SU their last 62 home games with a +/- differential of plus +5.8PPG. The bet here is the Clippers as a low favorite. |
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12-08-21 | Marquette +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like this spot for Marquette coming off a loss on Saturday @ Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles have been better than expected this year with 3 wins already over top 100 opponents including Illinois, West Virginia, and Ole Miss. KSU is coming off a big win over in-state foe Wichita State. Those 2 hadn’t played in 18 years and a big deal was made of that game so KSU could be a little flat here. There is also a good chance they’ll be without their leading scorer Pack (16 PPG) who is dealing with a concussion. Prior to their win over Wichita all of KSU’s wins were vs teams ranked 288th or lower. The only 2 top 100 teams they faced prior to Sunday but ended in losses for the Wildcats (Illinois & Arkansas). KSU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but in their 5 wins they’ve faced 3 teams with an offensive efficiency rank of below 300 and their opponents average offensive efficiency rank in those win is 278th. Marquette ranks in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Marquette remains undervalued having already won 3 games outright as an underdog this season. The Golden Eagles will give the Cats all they can handle here and we give them a great shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-07-21 | Nets -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - The Mavericks have potential injuries to Luka and Porzingis and even if they do play we like the visiting Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Bulls on Saturday (which we called) and is very good off a “beat” this season with a 6-0 record. Brooklyn’s James Harden has not shot it well this season but a return to the state of Texas may do wonders for his confidence. Brooklyn is better on both ends of the court in this matchup with the 5th ranked defensive efficiency compared to the Mavericks 18th ranked unit. Offensively the Nets also have the advantage offensively ranking 11th in OEFF compared the Mavs who rank 21st. The Nets are 8-2 SU away from home this season with the 3rd best overall point differential of ++6.7PPG. The Mavs have lost two straight at home to inferior teams and this will be their 3rd. |
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12-07-21 | Bradley v. Toledo -6 | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
#610 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toledo -6 over Bradley, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a 13 point loss @ Michigan State over the weekend and we look for them to bounce back with a home win. Speaking of him, Toledo is just happy to be playing a home game as they’ve played only 2 of their 8 games this season at home. Even with that, they have a solid 6-2 record on the season. Speaking of home games, the Rockets have won 17 of their last 18 games at Savage Arena with 15 of those 17 wins coming by at least 6 points which would give them a cover tonight (spread as of this writing is -5.5). They return a number of key players from a team that finished last season with a 21-9 record. Bradley has had to replace a number of their top players from a year ago with 8 new players on the team. After starting the year with a 1-5 record, the Braves have won 3 straight but those wins were all at home and 2 of those wins came vs teams ranked below 300. The one game they did win vs a solid opponent was a 2 point win at home over Northern Iowa. Bradley was +4.5 at home in that game and now they are +5.5 on the road vs a Toledo team we have power rated higher than UNI. Value on the host here. Bradley has only played 1 true road game this season and that was their season opener in early November, a 16 point loss @ South Dakota State. They have a record of 2-10 SU on the road since the beginning of last season. One huge advantage for Toledo here is at the FT line. They get there a lot with 22% of their points coming from the stripe (40th in CBB). Bradley sends teams to the line a lot with 23.6% of their opponent’s points coming from the line (20th most in CBB). Toledo shoots 78% from the line. Bradley shoots 58% from the line and they don’t get there much (14% of points from FT line – 309th). Rockets win and cover at home. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -2.5 over New England, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats come into this one with a 5-0 SU record on the road but they played perhaps the easiest road schedule in the NFL thus far. Their opponents? Houston, NY Jets, Atlanta, Carolina, and the LA Chargers. The only legit competition in that group was the Chargers and New England was outgained 6.4 YPP to 4.7 YPP in that contest but benefited from a pick 6 in that 27-24 win. Their other 4 road opponents have a combined 15-33 record. Going into Buffalo on Monday night will be their most difficult game this season. The Bills are coming off a 31-6 win @ New Orleans on Thanksgiving so they’ve had extra time to get ready for this one. The Bills have had a few stinkers this year losing at home to Indy and getting tripped up @ Jacksonville, but the numbers still show they are the top team in the AFC. They have a YPG differential of +114 and a YPP differential of +1.3, both tops on the NFL. New England’s defense has been on a very good run over the last month but 3 of the 4 offenses they’ve faced during that stretch rank 22nd or lower in offensive DVOA. As good as the New England defense has been, the Buffalo defense is #1 in the NFL allowing just 4.6 YPP compared to 5.1 for the Pats. During their current 6 game winning streak, the Patriots have been a big time beneficiary in the turnover department with a +13 margin in those 6 games alone. They probably can’t count on that tonight facing a Bills team that is 4th in the NFL in TO margin. NE QB Jones has had a great rookie season but after facing a number of lower tier opponents on the road this year, now he takes on the #1 defense in the NFL in one of the toughest venues in the league. We expect him to struggle. All 7 of Buffalo’s wins this year have come by at least 15 points and we like them to cover at home on Monday. |
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12-06-21 | Wizards v. Pacers OVER 212.5 | Top | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 212.5 Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - Scoring is starting to trend up in the NBA after a slow start to the season. The league average of a NBA game is currently 215PPG and we see this game as above average in terms of scoring and predict 222 total points. These teams have met once this season already and combined for 246 points in regulation. Washington has gone Over in 4 of their last five games and all of those four Overs finished with 215 or more points. Indiana has also favored the Over in recent games with a 5-1 record and all five of those finished with 211 or more points. Wizards on a 4-1 Over streak on the road, Pacers 5-0 Over their last five at home. The analytics say this game will be slightly higher scoring than league average. Bet Over. |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -2 over Illinois, Monday at 7 PM ET - We went against Iowa on Friday night when they traveled to Purdue and the Hawks impressed us. They lost by just 7 facing the #1 team in the country in one of the toughest venues in the nation. A very good 3-point shooting team (37th best nationally), Iowa hit only 23% from beyond the arc in that game and made 12 fewer FT’s than the Boilers and still had a shot trailing by 2 points with 2:30 remaining. Not only that, they did so without their star player Keegan Murray (25 PPG & 9 RPG) who was out with an ankle injury. Murray is scheduled to be back in the line up in this game. The Illini have played 3 games away from their home arena this year and it hasn’t been impressive. They lost @ Marquette, lost by 20 on a neutral site vs Cincinnati and beat Kansas State by 8 on a neutral. They’ve struggled all year with turnovers (308th in TO percentage) and now they face a pressing Iowa team that is very good at creating turnovers (37th nationally). It won’t help that the Illini will most likely be without their starting PG Curbelo who has a neck issue. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and the host has covered 6 of the last 7. With this number currently sitting at -2, we most likely just need Iowa to win this game at home where they’ve won 33 of their last 36 games. Take the Hawkeyes. |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
#457/458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5 Points – Denver vs Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - People continue to view this KC offense as a juggernaut and it just isn’t anymore. They are averaging fewer PPG, YPG, and YPP this season compared to last. The Chiefs have topped 20 points only twice in their last 7 games. Now they face a division opponent that is locked in defensively. The Broncos have allowed 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games including vs Dallas and LA Chargers, two of the best offenses in the NFL. For the season Denver is giving up just 17.8 PPG which ranks them 3rd in the NFL. They are allowing only 2.2 red zone trips per game which is tops in the NFL On the other side of the ball the Chiefs defense has poor numbers overall. Those season stats are not indicative of how this KC stop unit is playing right now. After allowing 32.6 PPG and allowing opponents to score points on more than 57% of their possessions through the first 5 games, KC’s defense has allowed a miniscule 9.5 PPG and allowed opponents to score points on just 27% of their possession over the last 6 games. They should limit a Denver offense that is averaging just 20.7 PPG on the year. The Broncos are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL and will want to control the clock here. Denver games are averaging only 38 total points on the season and KC’s games are averaging just 35 total points over the last 6 games once their defense started to play well. Looks like a windy night in KC (15+ MPH) which will have an affect as well. Under is the play here. |
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12-05-21 | Jazz -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -4.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:40 PM ET - There is a lot of buzz surrounding the Suns and Warriors as the best teams in the NBA but don’t sleep on this Jazz team. Even though they have 7 losses this season they are 8th in overall defensive efficiency and 1st in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have been a pleasant surprise this season and are doing it on the defensive end of the court with the 3rd best DEFF in the NBA. The difference between these two teams though is on the offensive end of the court where the Cavs rank 18th in OEFF. The Jazz have the best road differential in the NBA this season at +8.4PPG and they’ll win by at least that margin here. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Chargers are coming off a loss @ Denver last week in a game that set up nicely for the Broncos who were coming off a bye. Cincinnati has had 2 straight impressive looking wins beating the Raiders 32-13 and Steelers 41-10. However, let’s not forget that their 2 games prior to those wins, the Bengals lost at home 41-16 vs Cleveland and lost @ NY Jets. Cincy has the better record in this match with a 7-4 mark compared to the Chargers 6-5. We have to take into account the strength of schedules of these 2 teams to put those records in perspective. Cincy had played the 31st rated schedule so far this season including games vs Chicago, Jacksonville, NY Jets, and Detroit – all ranked 25th or lower in NFL team DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 30th, and 31st . Despite that, the Bengals lost 2 of those games vs the Bears & Jets and barely squeaked by the Jags by 3 points. The Chargers have played the 2nd most difficult schedule in the NFL to date. Despite the schedule disparity, LA has the better YPG differential (+33 to +5) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). LA has been a solid road team with a 3-2 SU record this year and 21-10-3 ATS as a road dog the last 3 seasons. We expect LA QB Herbert to have a big day vs the 25th ranked Cincinnati pass defense. Take the points. |
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings pick’em over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This is an interesting scheduling situation as these two teams just met on December 1st with the Kings winning on the road 124-115. Since then, the Kings have been off and resting while the Clippers are coming off an emotional game against the Lakers last night. L.A. is their 4th game in five nights and the second of a back-to-back so fatigue becomes a factor. In fact, the Clippers are 0-4 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. The Clippers have played a home-heavy schedule this season with 13 of their last 15 played on their home court, the two road games they played in that stretch were losses at New Orleans and Memphis. The Kings are the 7th highest scoring team in the NBA and are capable of scoring with anyone. The Clippers are 19th in scoring and the 20th ranked shooting team in the league. Scheduling favors the Kings here to get a solid home win. |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
#320 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Wake Forest, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two great offenses face off here with both Pitt & Wake averaging 43 PPG on the season. When we move to the other side of the ball, Pitt has a big advantage. Pitt ranks 49th nationally in total defense while Wake ranks 101st. Even more importantly, the Panthers rank 38th in YPP allowed (5.1) and the Deacs rank 94th in that key stat (5.9). Pittsburgh’s YPP differential this year is +1.3 which ranks them #1 in the ACC tied with NC State. WF has a YPP differential of just +0.3 which puts them behind Pitt, NC State, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, Miami, FSU, and Syracuse in the ACC alone. Wake has 2 losses on the season getting dominated in the trenches by Clemson (lost by 21 points) and losing at home to UNC. Pittsburgh beat both of those teams by 10 and 7 points respectively outgaining those 2 foes by more than 200 yards combined. Speaking of common opponents, these 2 teams have had 5 this year (Clemson, UNC, Syracuse, Duke and UVA). Pitt was 5-0 SU in those games with an average winning margin of +14 and an average YPG margin of +110. WF was 3-2 in those games with an average winning margin of +7 and an average YPG margin of +34. It was pretty clear to us watching these teams all season + the obvious key stats that Pitt was the better team this season. The Panthers have a significant advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their defense allows only 2.8 YPC while Wake gives up over 5 YPC. Pitt is also outstanding at putting pressure on the QB (1st nationally in sacks per game and top 10 in sack percentage) which is key to beating WF. In their worst overall performance this year vs Clemson the Deacs allowed 7 sacks and were outgained by 137 yards. We see similarities to this match up with the exception that Pitt has a MUCH better offense than Clemson. We like Pittsburgh to win this game by more than a FG. |
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12-04-21 | Youngstown State v. Green Bay UNDER 133.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #685/686 UNDER 133.5 Youngstown State at UW Green Bay, 7 PM ET - This is a great matchup of coaches who come from strong defensive backgrounds. Youngstown State’s head coach Jerrod Calhoun is a former Bob Huggins’ disciple, and Will Ryan is the son of legendary Bo Ryan. Will Ryan has also adopted his dad’s philosophy on offense, which is slow, deliberate and painstakingly slow. The Phoenix are 341st in pace of play this season after ranking 313th a year ago. UWGB had some turnover on their roster this season and are struggling to score with the 311th worst EFG% shooting team in college basketball. The Phoenix make just 27% of their 3-point attempts which is 328th in the nation. Youngstown was 228th in EFG% shooting a year ago, 296th in 3-point shooting at 30.9%. The Penguins also prefer to play at a slower tempo ranking 202nd in pace after finishing last year 212th. Two slower paced teams that can’t shoot make this an inviting UNDER wager. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 52.5 Points – Appalachian State vs UL Lafayette, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In this match up we have the 2 best defenses in the Sun Belt (#1 & #2 in total defense and scoring defense) squaring off. These two met earlier this year and ULL won the game 41-13 which was by far the worst performance by the App State defense this year. They will be motivated for this one. In that game the teams combined for only 665 total yards and ULL had 4 explosive plays that totaled 139 of those yards. ULL also scored 4 TD’s on drives of 39 yards or less after Mountaineer turnovers. There were 73 rushing attempts and just 51 pass attempts in that game. Rushing the ball eats clock as we know and we expect much more of the same in this game. ASU averages 41 carries per game and ULL averages 40 per game. Since that loss App St has played 6 games and allowed just 14 PPG and 242 YPG. If you subtract their season opener vs Texas in which the ULL defense allowed 38 points, the Cajun defense has allowed an average of just 16.7 PPG and nobody has topped 27 points on this team. Both teams are slower paced ranking 70th or lower nationally so we don’t foresee a lot of offensive possessions. With ASU favored by 3 the projected final here is around 28-25. We don’t project either team getting to those numbers and we like the UNDER. |
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12-03-21 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 217.5 | Top | 96-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These two teams just met on Tuesday with the Suns winning at home 104-96. That game stayed well below the total of 221 and we feel this game does too. Phoenix lost their best offensive player Devin Booker (23PPG, 4.5APG) early in that game and he’ll be out the entire game tonight with a pulled hamstring. These two teams feature two of the best overall defenses in the NBA as the Warriors rank 1st in defensive efficiency while the Suns are 2nd. Golden State has the #1 rated field goal percentage defense allowing just 42.3% on the season, the Suns are 6th allowing 43.4%. The last 8 times the Suns have been a road underdog the Under has cashed in 6 of those. The Warriors are on a 4-0 Under run and 9 of the last ten meetings has been an Under. |
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12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue -11.5 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11.5 over Iowa, Friday at 9 PM ET - This is a statement game for the Boilers. It’s their first Big 10 game of the season and a revenger at that after getting beat 70-55 @ Iowa in their only meeting last year. We have the Boilers currently rated as the #1 team in the nation right now. They are 6-0 on the season with an average winning margin of +28 points. That includes 3 top 40 teams as they’ve topped UNC, Villanova, and Florida State. At home they have won by the following margins - 28 (vs a very solid Florida State team), 57, 44, 25, and 29 points and all but one of those games was vs teams ranked inside the top 195. The Boilers rank #1 nationally in offensive efficiency, #2 in 3-point %, #2 in 2-point % and they make 76% of their FT’s. Iowa is 7-0 on the season but they’ve played just 1 team ranked inside the top 200 and that was a 1-point win vs Virginia who is solid but not great this season. Purdue has been home since November 21st while Iowa is playing their 2nd road game this week. We think the Hawks are overvalued right now. They are undefeated but lost 3 of their top 5 players from last year’s team including national player of the year Luka Garza. Purdue’s Mackey Arena has not been kind to the Hawkeyes as they’ve won just ONCE there since 2008 (1-11 SU record). The last 3 meetings Purdue has won by margins of 36, 16 and 22 points. Boilers roll to a big win here. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA OVER 72.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
#303/304 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 72.5 Points – Western Kentucky vs UTSA, Friday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met already once this season and it was an absolute shootout. UTSA came out on top 52-46 so almost 100 points scored in that one. It wasn’t a fluke as there wasn’t a single non-offensive TD in that game. All points were earned by the offenses. The 2 teams combined for more than 1,200 yards in the game! As crazy as it sounds, it could have been higher scoring that it was. Believe it or not there were FIVE punts in the game, a missed FG, one shut out on downs in opposing territory and 2 interceptions thrown inside the opponents 25 yards line which would most likely have led to scores. There were 166 offensive snaps in the game (a lot!) and we expect nothing different as these are 2 of the faster paced teams in college FB (WKU in top 10 and UTSA in top 30). The Hilltoppers have scored 40+ points in 7 of their last 8 games including rolling up 52 last Saturday on a Marshall defense that came into the game ranked 23rd nationally allowing just 21 PPG. UTSA’s offense has scored at least 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season and they are averaging 37 PPG on the year. This game is being played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio so the playing conditions will be perfect for both offenses. With WKU favored by 3 the projected final score is 38-35. Our numbers have both teams eclipsing those numbers as this one goes OVER the total. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
#767/768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Portland State vs Idaho State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here makes for a low scoring game. Let’s start with Portland State. They had a few higher scoring games vs something called Evergreen State and George Fox which makes their overall season stats look much better than they are. Throw those 2 games out and they are averaging just 56 PPG vs Division 1 opponents. PSU ranks 356th in eFG%, 357th in 3 point making only 18% from beyond the arc, and they almost never get to the FT line (14% of their points on the season). There are 358 Division 1 teams which tells you how poor they’ve been offensively. Now we move to Idaho State. They are averaging 55 PPG vs their 5 Division 1 opponents they faced so far this season. The Bengals rank 297th in eFG% and 310th in 3 point %. And those numbers come vs a schedule in which 4 of the 5 teams they’ve faced rank below 200 in defensive efficiency. Portland State does like to play at a fast pace, however the host Idaho State is one of the slowest teams in the country ranking 333rd in tempo. It’s really tough to speed up a slow paced team and we expect Idaho State to get their preferred slow tempo here. The 2 Big Sky foes met twice last year and totaled 112 and 121 points. We like UNDER here. |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +5 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Dallas is currently going through a Covid issue which will affect the team negatively this week. We’re not quite sure how much as of this writing but we know some key pieces to the puzzle are out. HC McCarthy and several assistants will not be able to participate in this game. We know the Dallas starting RT is out and we’re expecting more to come. WR Jones might return but he still is nowhere near 100% as he’s still under the weather. Dallas has had to conduct virtual practices this week so the prep for this game is out of whack as well. That will be a problem for a Cowboy offense that is playing the best defense they’ve faced in quite a while. The Saints rank 5th in the NFL DVOA defense and the last 5 teams Dallas has faced have defenses ranked 17th or lower and 4 of the 5 rank 24th or lower DVOA. Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 games despite facing those defenses. This team is trending down. We realize the Saints have lost 4 in a row and are reeling as well. New Orleans has outgained 2 of those 4 opponents and 2 of the losses came by 2 points. They are also making a change at QB with a healthy Taysom Hill taking over which should give this team some life. He played very well in his 4 starts last season completing 71.9% of his passes during his four-game starting stint for 834 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions. He also ran the ball 39 times for 209 yards and 4 touchdowns. New Orleans HC Payton has never lost 5 straight games and his record as a dog is a money making 47-25 ATS – including 7-2 ATS as a home dog since 2015. Off a terrible home performance vs the Bills on Thanksgiving Day, we like New Orleans to bounce back and keep this one close if not win outright. |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +2 over Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - We are betting value here with the Knicks as a home dog. These two teams met on Nov. 21st in Chicago and the Bulls were favored by -5.5-points and are now laying 2 on the road which doesn’t add up. New York was also just a +4-point dog at home against the Suns who have won 17 straight games. Chicago is off a home win, New York is off a road loss. We expect the revenge minded Knicks to get payback here. The Bulls have failed to cover here in 4 straight visits and are 3-7 ATS the last ten clashes. |
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12-01-21 | Kings v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30 PM ET - This will be a tough spot for the Kings. The Kings are playing their 5th game in 8 days, 3rd in 4 nights and 2nd of a B2B. When playing without rest this season the Kings are 1-2 SU/ATS. The Clippers are rested and coming off two straight home losses but one was to the red hot Warriors. On Monday the Clippers were embarrassed at home by the Pelicans. Pels center Valanciunas had a monster 39/15 game. LA is solid off a loss with a 23-19 ATS record, their last 42 in that role with a +6.2PPG differential. The biggest difference between these two teams is on the defensive end of the court where the Clippers rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Kings rank 26th. Also, the Kings are the 25th worst 3-pt shooting team in NBA, Clippers 12th best. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 13 meetings with the Kings. |
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12-01-21 | Louisville v. Michigan State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Louisville vs Michigan State, Wed at 7:15 PM ET - We have 2 of the best performing defenses in college basketball facing off in this game and we expect this one to stay under the total. MSU ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Louisville ranks 18th. Sparty has stayed under this number of 135 in 4 of their last 5 games. Their only game during that stretch that went over this number was vs Eastern Michigan who plays at a very fast pace and has a defense ranked 254th in efficiency. The only 2 teams this year to top 70 points vs MSU’s defense were Kansas & Baylor who rank 5th and 6th nationally in offensive efficiency. The offense they are facing tonight, Louisville, ranks 93rd in offensive efficiency. The Cards have allowed more than 67 points just once this season and in their 2 most recent games vs Maryland (60th in offensive efficiency) and Mississippi State (49th in offensive efficiency) this defense allowed just 55 and 58 points. Both teams struggle to shoot the 3 well both ranking below 210th and both defend the arc with neither allowing 30%. We don’t expect many points from deep tonight. Both are inside the top 23 in eFG% defense while each offense ranks outside the top 160 in that category. Each of these defenses makes it very tough to get shots allowing a shot attempt every 18+ seconds which ranks them both outside the top 300 in defensive pace. MSU & Louisville have combined to play 13 games this year with only 4 going over the total. Another lower scoring game here that we project to land in the high 120’s. |
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11-30-21 | Pistons +9 v. Blazers | Top | 92-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Blazers are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Utah and playing their 5th game in seven days. Detroit was off on Monday after playing the L.A. on Sunday. The Pistons have been competitive in their two most recent road games losing by 4-points to the Lakers and 11 to the Clippers. If we look at the Blazers last four home games, all wins, but they took advantage of the Nuggets and 76ers with injuries and barely beat the Bulls and Raptors by 5-points each. Detroit is on a 4-1 ATS streak and continues to be undervalued by the oddmakers. Portland is 2-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -1.3PPG. Grab the points. |
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11-30-21 | Hurricanes v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
#55/56 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5.5 Goals - Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET – The Hurricanes are expected to be without 3 defensemen tonight. DeAngelo, Pesce and Bear are all expected to miss this contest due to covid. This certainly is impacting to the Hurricanes in their own end of the ice in particular and the Stars will look to take advantage. Dallas is known more for defense but the Canes might be the best team in the league in terms of forechecking and Carolina is going to score well here (more on that to follow) but the Stars have been scoring well of late too. Dallas has scored 3 or more goals in 9 of 11 games. Carolina has averaged scoring 3.2 goals per game in their dozen road games this season. Off a rare loss, just their fourth in regulation time this season, you know the Hurricanes are going to bring it here in this one! The problem for Carolina is going to be their lack of healthy defensemen but this team is still loaded up front with talent at the wings and center position. Holtby is expected to start between the pipes for Dallas and he just came back from injury and will face a much tougher test here than the did at Arizona Saturday in his first start since he got back. No matter who is goal for the Stars we expect them to face a barrage of shots as Carolina and coach Rod Brind'Amour fired up after they felt a questionable late penalty call changed their end result against the Capitals on Sunday. This Canes team will show no quit on Tuesday night for sure. The last time they were on the road and coming off a loss they scored 6 goals. As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect good goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +1 | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1 over Seattle, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We really like the way Washington is trending right now. They’ve won 2 straight games and actually outgained their last 4 opponents. Two of those games came vs Green Bay & Tampa Bay, two of the very best teams in the NFL. 3 of those 4 games were on the road. Their most recent home game was 2 weeks ago vs Tampa and Washington won the game by 10 points outgaining the Bucs by 47 yards. It was an ideal spot for Tampa as they were coming off a bye and had lost @ New Orleans heading into their week off. Needless to say a very impressive win for Washington. Their defense was top notch last year but struggled the first part of the season. They have really tightened up on that side of the ball limiting their last 4 opponents to an average of just 286 YPG. That includes holding Tampa to 273 yards and Green Bay to 304 yards. That’s bad news for a Seattle offense that is struggling to say the least right now. The Seahawks have scored a grand total of 13 points the last 2 weeks combined. Russell Wilson is obviously not 100% and can’t perform at the level he is used to. Since his return Wilson has led Seattle on 20 offensive possessions and they’ve scored 1 TD. Last week they lost 23-13 at home vs Arizona with Colt McCoy at QB for the Cards. The Hawks have lost 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming vs Jacksonville. They’ve also been outgained in 9 straight games. On the season the Seahawks are getting outgained by 103 YPG (worst differential in the NFL) and they rank 30th in total offense and 32nd in total defense. We like Washington to win this game at home. |
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11-29-21 | Pacers v. Wolves UNDER 217.5 | Top | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Pacers are unrested here after a game on Sunday against the Bucks. That factors in here as the Pacers are 4-0 Under their last four when playing without rest. In those four games played without rest the Pacers games averaged 200-total points per contest. Indiana ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and give up 106PPG. Minnesota has been a big surprise this season and a lot of their success is a result of their defensive intensity. Minnesota is 11th in DEFF this season which is significantly higher than the 27th ranked unit they featured a year ago. In 7 of their last ten games they have held opponents to 101 or less points. The Wolves are 26th in team field goal percentage and the Pacers are 20th in 3-point percentage. Indiana is 8-1 Under their last nine away from home. Wolves Under in 9 of their last 12 home games. BET UNDER. |
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11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia +1.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia +1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - We understand Iowa is looking great early in the season with a 6-0 record. They’ve played all of those games at home and haven’t faced a single team ranked inside the top 200. The best defense they’ve faced was ranked 168th in efficiency and 5 of the 6 defenses they’ve faced rank 200 or lower. Tonight comes a whole different animal. Iowa is on the road for the first time and facing one of the top defenses in the country. UVA ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and they are playing better than that ranking right now. After a rare rough start to the season on the defensive end, they have held their last 4 opponents to 0.70, 0.71, 0.84, and 0.85 points per possession. That includes games vs Power 5 opponents Providence and Georgia. We’re not sure what to make of Iowa quite yet. We feel they are overvalued right now for sure. The Hawkeyes lost 3 of their top players from last year’s team including Luka Garza who was national player of the year. Our ratings have UVA as the favorite here. The Cavs have only been a home dog FOUR times since the start of the 2011 season (vs UNC (twice), Duke, and FSU). They are 4-0 ATS in those games and they are 59-7 SU at home their last 66. We like the value here with Virginia as a home dog. |
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11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Minnesota vs San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Both these offenses are humming right now and our projections have this one landing in the 50’s. The Vikings have scored at least 27 points in 4 of their last 5 games including putting up 31 last week vs a Green Bay defense that had allowed more than 21 points in any of their previous 5 games. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in 3 of their last 4 games including 31 two weeks ago vs a very good Rams defense and 30 last week vs a Jacksonville defense that had allowed 6 points to Buffalo 2 weeks prior and 16 offensive points to Indy in their previous game. Both teams rank inside the top 10 in offensive DVOA per football outsiders. Minnesota has gone over the total in 4 of their 5 road games this year with an average of 58 points scored in those games. The Viking defense has allowed at least 27 points in 4 of those 5 road games. San Fran at home has gone over in 3 of their 5 games with an average point total of 49 per game. The Niners defense has solid overall numbers this season but vs some of the better offenses they’ve faced they have given up points (Green Bay 30, Indy 30, and Arizona 31). This one has the makings of a back and forth game with each team needing to keep up on the scoreboard. Take the OVER |
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11-28-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over NY Giants, 1 PM ET - The Giants just fired their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and have a short week to prepare for the surging Eagles who have won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The key in this game will be the rushing attack of the Eagles. Going into last week’s game the Saints had the #1 ranked rushing defense in the NFL allowing 73RYPG but the Eagles pounded them on the ground for 242-rushing yards on 50 carries. Philadelphia has morphed into a solid running team with over 176 rushing yards in four straight games, over 216 in three of those. If the Eagles were able to rush for over the #1 ranked Saints defense last week, what will they do against a Giants rush defense that is 23rd in the league allowing 120RYPG and 4.4-yards per carry. These two teams are even in terms of defensive DVOA but the Eagles rate much better offensively with the 7th best DVOA offense compared to the Giants 27th ranked unit. Going back to 2016 the Eagles have beaten the Giants 9 of ten times and eight of those wins came by 3 or more points. Back Philadelphia as a short road favorite. |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. Utah UNDER 139 | Top | 75-64 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139 Points – BYU vs Utah, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET - Two rivals going at it tonight and we expect a lower scoring affair. Both defenses have been stellar this year with BYU ranking 8th in eFG% defense and Utah ranking 10th in the same category. Neither team ranks inside the top 130 in eFG% offense despite playing a fairly easy slate of defenses this season. Utah has played one of the weaker schedules in the country thus far and they have not faced a defense ranked in the top 100 in efficiency. Despite playing a weak slate of defenses, Utah games have averaged 134 total points this season. BYU has played 2 top 100 defenses this season (San Diego St & Oregon) and those games have totaled 126 & 130 points. If we throw out their game vs Central Methodist (non Division 1) the Cougar games are averaging 132 total points. Neither team shoot the 3 pointer very well and both defend the arc at a high level (BYU #1 nationally defending the 3 and Utah 30th) so we don’t expect many points from deep. Our power ratings have this game finishing in the mid 130’s so some value on the Under in this one. |
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11-27-21 | Heat v. Bulls UNDER 212 | Top | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212 Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We have a match up of two teams that both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency (Heat 4th, Bulls 10th) and points allowed per game as the Heat give up 102.4PPG, Bulls 104.6PPG. The pace of this game shouldn’t be fast as the Bulls are average in possession per game while the Heat are 27th and one of the slowest in the NBA. Chicago played a game last night against the Magic and allowed 88-points. When playing without rest the Bulls have averaged only 196 total points. The Heat have 1 day rest and playing in that scenario they average 206.4PPG. Last season when NBA games averaged 224 total points these two teams played in three low scoring affairs with totals of 212, 207 and 191. With NBA scoring down this season to 214 we expect even less scoring in this game. The bet here is UNDER. |
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11-27-21 | UTSA v. North Texas +10.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +10.5 over Texas San Antonio, 2pm ET - This is going to be a tough spot for UTSA as they are off a HUGE win over UAB, the perennial power in the Conference last week, and have a date in the Conference Championship next week. The Roadrunners dramatic win last week came with a TD pass with just .03 seconds on the clock. UTSA was outgained by 100-yards by UAB in that game and gave up over 220-rushing yards. Next week UTSA will play the winner of the Marshall/Western Kentucky game for the CUSA title which makes this game much less important. North Texas can qualify for a Bowl game with a win here and have a key factor on their side in this matchup. We mentioned UTSA allowed over 220-rushing yards to UAB, well North Texas has the 4th best rush offense in the nation at 237.5RYPG. The Eagles are playing well right now having won 4 straight games and covering 7 of their last eight. The undefeated Roadrunners are a road favorite for just the 3rd time since 2018, are overvalued, and laying double digits on the road. Easy buy with the home team North Texas. |
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11-27-21 | Army v. Liberty UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
#147/148 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 53.5 Points – Army vs Liberty, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We won’t see many offensive opportunities in this game as Army is slowest paced team in the nation and Liberty ranks 92nd in pace. On top of that we’ll see A LOT of running the ball which eats clock and shortens the game. Army is 2nd nationally averaging 60 rushing attempts per game and Liberty is averaging 41 per game (30th). We have 2 very good defenses in this game as well with both ranking in the top 15 in total defense. Liberty entered last week’s game vs UL Lafayette allowing just 18 PPG and it looks like they had a total meltdown on that side of the ball with the Cajuns scoring 42 points. That wasn’t the case as ULL had only 296 total yards and Liberty gave them a number of short fields with a -6 turnover margin in that game. Even though they played decent on defense, giving up their highest point total of the season will motivate this Liberty defense heading into this week. Let’s remember the week prior to their ULL game this Liberty defense allowed just 27 points to a potent Ole Miss offense. Army has had 4 games that have scored more than this total (53) vs WKY (7th in pace, 9th in offense, 110th defense), UConn (14th pace, 111th defense), WF (4th pace, 9th offense, 110th defense) and Bucknell (63-10 final). So all of Army’s higher scoring games were vs fast paced teams with poor defenses. That won’t be the case this week. For comparison, Army’s total vs WF was set at 54. Their total vs Western KY was set at 52. As we stated above those are fast paced teams with very good offense and defenses ranked below 100. Based on that, this total should be set in the 40’s. Our number has it at 47 so we think there is definite value in the Under. |
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11-26-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors who are coming off a solid road win, while the Pacers are off a disappointing OT home loss to the Lakers. This will be the Raptors 6th straight road game and they are just 2-4 SU in those recent away games. Indiana is 4-1 SU their last five home games and also 3-1 ATS this season at home when off a loss. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Raptors winning both meetings so we expect the revenge minded Pacers to get a solid home win here. |
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11-26-21 | TCU v. Iowa State -14.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
#140 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -14.5 over TCU, Friday 4:30 PM ET - Vegas is begging us to bet on TCU here and we won’t bite. The Horned Frogs are attracting a lot of public action, yet the line is not fluctuating down. TCU has had a disappointing season which cost longtime head coach Gary Patterson his job and has Jerry Kill as the interim coach. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 3-point win over 2-9 Kansas who has an average +/- on the season of minus -22.8PPG. TCU has been blown out on the road this season by 46 at Oklahoma State, by 19 at Kansas State and 21 at Oklahoma who are all on par with this Iowa State team. The Cyclones are a disappointing 6-5 this season, but they are much better than their record indicates. Even with 5 losses, ISU has a +10.3 average MOV which is incredible. Iowa State has a bad taste in their mouths after two straight 1-score losses on the road and will look for atonement at home. ISU is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +/- of +14.8PPG. Iowa State has a top 50-offense in several key statistical categories and should have success moving the ball against a TCU defense that ranks 113th in yards allowed per game at 454. On the other side of the football the Horned Frogs will have a tough time moving it against the top 10 defense of the Cyclones. This one has all the makings of a blowout. |
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11-26-21 | Alabama -6.5 v. Drake | Top | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -6.5 over Drake, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We like the value with Bama here coming off their first loss of the season yesterday. We have the Tide as a 9 point favorite and the line is sitting at -6. Alabama has top 10 talent and they’ve proven that this year with blowout wins over solid competition. Prior to losing 72-68 vs Iona yesterday, the Crimson Tide had faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 135 this season and destroyed all of them. They beat La Tech (2nd highest rated team in Conference USA / 24-8 record last year) by 29, topped Oakland (highest rated team in the Horizon) by 27, and beat South Dakota State (by far the highest rated team in the Summit) by 16. Yesterday they ran into a senior dominated Iona team that had their eyes set on this game after losing to Alabama in the first round of the NCAA tourney last season. Bama led for most of the game but a late run by Iona got the tight win. We respect Drake as one of the top mid majors this season but they’ve struggled with the 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced this year losing yesterday to Belmont and struggling to beat Richmond at home by 3. The Bulldogs have relied heavily on the 3 point shot this season (37% of their points / 71st nationally) but today the face one of the best teams in the nation at defending the arc. The Tide currently rank 13th in the nation allowing just 23% from deep and it’s no fluke as they ranked 10th in the country in the same category last year. Drake is coming off a great season in 2020, however they didn’t face a single top 100 team in the non-conference last year and the best team in their league, Loyola Chicago, beat them in 2 of their 3 match ups last year. Both Loyola wins were by double digits and Drake’s lone win vs the Ramblers was by 1 point. Drake runs into a buzzsaw here vs one of the more talented teams in the country. Lay it with Alabama. |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45.5 Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Bills game last week when their defense looked atrocious against the Colts for a couple reasons. First off, the Colts offense is playing quite well right now behind a great O-line and RB Jonathan Taylor. Secondly, the Bills were #1 in the NFL in defensive DVOA and still rank 1st in yards per game allowed 2nd in passing D, 9th in rushing D and 2nd in points allowed per game at 17.6. On average it takes opponents 16.3 yards gained for 1-point which is 9th best in the NFL. Buffalo is also 1st in yards per play allowed this season at 4.7. After a horrible showing last week, we are betting the Bills defense shows up here. The Bills aren’t the only team in this game with a fantastic defense. The Saints rank 5th in defensive DVOA, give up 5.4YPPL (11th), 15.7 yards per point (13th) and rank 10th in points allowed per game at 21.8. The Saints offense is banged up, down to their 3rd string QB and could be without Kamara again here. Last week the Saints had less than 100-total yards of offense going into the 4th quarter against the Eagles and 7-points. The 22-points and yards gained in the 4th quarter came after that game was out of reach. The Bills offense has looked pedestrian at best in two of their last three games with 6 and 15-points against the Jaguars and Colts. They did put up 45-points versus the Jets, but New York has the worst defense in the NFL. The bet here is Under. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
#112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -2 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ve kept a close eye on Ole Miss for a number of weeks now. We used their game vs Vandy Under last week and cashed easily. The Rebels are running out of gas. They are now playing their 9th consecutive week and now on a short week on the road. This team is banged up at a number of positions including QB where Matt Corral has not been able to practice which has limited Lane Kiffin’s game planning to his own admission. They struggled a bit last week beating Vandy by 14 (Ole Miss was favored by 35) and that was a Commodore team that had lost their first 6 SEC games by an average of 26 points including a 45-6 loss to Mississippi State. Because this team is fatigued, their scoring has dropped drastically especially in the 2nd half where they have scored a grand total of 44 points over their last 6 games (7.3 PPG in 2nd half during that run). Speaking of the Bulldogs, they are peaking right now which can’t be said about the Rebels. They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback during that run coming @ Alabama. Throw out that game and MSU has outgained their last 6 opponents by an average of 203 YPG. While Ole Miss QB Corral gets most of the press, how about the run by MSU QB Rogers? He is completing 80% of his passes with 20 TD’s over the Bulldogs last 5 games. They have outgained every SEC opponent they’ve faced with the exception of Bama. MSU’s offense is rolling right now as we discussed and their defense gives up a full 100 yards less per game than Mississippi. This is a rivalry revenger as MSU lost @ Ole Miss last season 31-24. We like MSU to win this one and we’ll lay the small number. |
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11-24-21 | Heat v. Wolves UNDER 212.5 | Top | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212.5 Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - Look out NBA, here come the Minnesota Timberwolves! The Wolves are playing well right now with 4 straight wins and 5 in their last six games. That streak has been fueled by a stingy defense allowing less than 100-points in 5 straight games and 6 of their last seven. Minnesota catches the Heat coming off a game last night in Detroit so fatigue becomes an issue on the offensive end of the court for Miami. The Heat have totaled less than 212 total points in 4 straight games and are once again one of the best defensive teams in the league. Miami has allowed less than 105 points in 6 straight games and have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Minnesota is 9th in DEFF for the season which is a DRAMATIC improvement over last year’s numbers and they have the best DEFF in the NBA over the last 5 games. Miami is the slowest paced team in the NBA over their last five games while Minnesota is 14th slowest. This shapes up to be a defensive battle with a very low total. BET UNDER. |
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11-24-21 | Bruins -1.5 v. Sabres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - Situations just do not come along much stronger than this one. High quality Bruins team off a rare 4-0 shutout loss is facing a slumping Sabres team that can not keep the puck out of their own net. Buffalo has lost 9 of its last 11 games. Also, the Sabres have allowed 5 or more goals in 7 of their last 8 losses. That is just incredibly bad and when you watch this team they just seem so undisciplined and make so many mistakes. A disciplined and focused and angry team like Boston is going to take full advantage of those mistakes no doubt. Bruins come in highly motivated after the 4-0 loss to the Flames. Boston, prior to that defeat, had won 3 straight games and all 3 victories were by identical 5-2 scores. The Bruins are starting to get healthier too while the Sabres are still without injured goalie Craig Anderson and Aaron Dell has been named the starter for this one and he remains winless on the season and Buffalo has allowed at least 5 goals in all 3 of his starts. The Sabres have lost 11 of 15 games since their surprising 5-2 start so they are starting to look like the Sabres of old and that is bad news. The Bruins, on the other hand, before the loss to Calgary, have been looking again like the Bruins of old and that is good news for Boston fans. They are going to pound Buffalo into submission tonight with a convincing win. Road team in a blowout is highly likely per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals (for plus money return currently in the +110 range) with road favorite Boston is a high percentage value play here. |
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11-24-21 | VCU v. Syracuse UNDER 130.5 | Top | 67-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
#747/748 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130 Points – Syracuse vs VCU, Wednesday at 5 PM ET - Syracuse is coming off a high scoring game vs Colgate which pushed this total quite a bit higher than it should be by our projections. It has dropped a few points since but we still like the Under in this game. Colgate was a very good shooting team that likes to play at a high tempo. They made 18 three pointers in their big win over Syracuse. By comparison, VCU had made 15 three pointers the entire season in 4 games. The Rams are a poor shooting team (286th eFG%), that doesn’t make FT’s (61%) and plays slow. On the other end of the court VCU has been outstanding. They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and they’ve allowed their first 4 opponents an average of 51 PPG with none topping 58. Syracuse has solid offensive numbers but they’ve played 3 defenses that rank 192nd or lower in efficiency. 2 of the 3 teams they’ve faced also like to play up tempo and that won’t be the case in this one. To beat the Syracuse zone you need to make some 3’s and VCU just isn’t equipped to do that (313th in 3-point %). They love to play inside the paint. The Cuse is a solid 3-point shooting team thus far but they are now facing a VCU defense that allows just 21% from beyond the arc (6th nationally). It’s tough to get shots against both of these defenses which is why they ranked 350th and 355th in defensive pace. Our projections have this landing in the mid to upper 120’s so we’ll take the UNDER. |
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11-23-21 | Lakers v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 over LA Lakers, 7:35 PM ET - The Lakers will be without LeBron James in this game after he was ejected in the last game against the Pistons. The altercation was the main story from the other night but from our standpoint the issue was the Lakers were trailing the 4-12 Pistons by 15-points entering the 4th quarter. Prior to their win over the Pistons the Lakers had lost 4 straight road games by an average of 13PPG. LA was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA a season ago, but now rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Lakers offense has been even worse ranking 24th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks are coming off a disappointing road loss in Chicago in which they led big before late game collapse and a 6-point loss. The Knicks are 11th in offensive efficiency and 17th in DEFF but both of those rankings are better than the Lakers. The Knicks have covered 4 straight at home against LA and are on a 3-0 SU streak when home coming off a loss. |
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11-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -7.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - Houston was a Final 4 team a year ago and they return 4 of their top 7 players. They also have added 2 key transfers that play significant minutes including an All Conference caliber player from Texas Tech (Kyler Edwards). They dominated Butler from start to finish yesterday on their way to an 18 point win. Their game prior to that they crushed Virginia by 20 points – game was played last week. The Cougs are a veteran team with all juniors and seniors in the starting line up. Wisconsin is very young this year after losing 4 of 5 starters from a year ago. The Badgers got behind by 16 points yesterday vs Texas A&M and made a massive comeback to pick up an easy win. A&M wanted to run and they got this young Wisconsin team to play their pace early on before HC Gard made some adjustments to slow the game down. The Aggies offense does not excel in the half court and that allowed Wisconsin to make their comeback. Today they face a very physical, mature team that also likes to play a slow tempo. UW is not a great shooting team this year (284th in eFG%) and they are facing a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency after ranking 9th a year ago. The Cougars, on the other hand, are a much better shooting team ranking 10% better eFG% and 10% better from 3-point land when compared to Wisconsin. This is a very tough match up for a UW team that is still learning the ropes. Take Houston. |
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11-22-21 | Providence +1.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +1.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - The wrong team is favored in this one. Our power ratings have Providence as a 3 point favorite on a neutral court. NW is 4-0 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in college basketball thus far. The Cats have played all home games and haven’t faced a team ranked inside the top 260 and 3 of their 4 opponents were ranked outside the top 315. Providence is also 4-0 but 3 of their 4 opponents are ranked higher than anyone NW has played this season. The Friars went to Wisconsin and won which is never easy to do. The led the Badgers for most of the game and the final score of 63-58 was closer than the game really was as Providence led by 13 with 6:00 remaining. The Friars are a veteran team with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up. They are a very good interior offense (61% from inside the arc – 11th best nationally) with big man Nate Watson leading the way. He’s averaging 21 PPG and has made a remarkable 74% of his shots inside the arc (34 of 46). We don’t think NW has anyone that can guard him. Because Providence is more of an interior team, they get to the FT line a lot already getting to the stripe 52 more times than their opponents this season. With a solid defense on top of that (79th in defensive efficiency) this is a team that should play very well on the road this year as they don’t rely on 3-pointers. NW leaving their campus for the first time (game is in Newark NJ) playing a team that is far superior to anyone they’ve played will be a problem for the Cats tonight. Providence is the play here. |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +11.5 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - Giants are coming off a bye and playing much better as of late. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games with their only loss coming by 3 points @ KC. They outgained the Chiefs 5.4 YPP to 4.8 YPP in that game and that tight loss on the road is looking more impressive after KC demolished Las Vegas and handled Dallas in the 2 weeks after. They have been a big time money maker as a road underdog going 19-4 ATS their last 23. This year they are 3-1 ATS when getting points on the road. NYG QB Jones has been better on the road in his career than he’s been at home. This year in his 4 road games he has a higher completion percentage, higher yards per pass attempt, and a higher QBR away from home. WR’s Golladay and Toney are finally healthy and RB Barkley may play here. TB is coming off back to back losses getting topped New Orleans by 9 and Washington by 10. Brady put up his 2 lowest QBR ratings in those 2 games which included 4 interceptions. Those were vs pass defenses that rank 13th and 29th DVOA. The Giants defensive strength is vs the pass ranking 11th in the NFL DVOA so they match up very well with a TB offense that struggles to run (27th in rush offense). These 2 faced off last year and it was tight to the end with Tampa winning by just 2 points despite getting outgained by the Giants. NYG may not win this one but they’ll put up a fight and say within 11 points. |
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11-22-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Bulls as they are off a 5 game West coast road trip, then hosted the Knicks on Sunday night and now must face a rested Pacers team. Indiana is just 2-9 SU on the road this season, but they’ve been in tight games recently and have an average loss margin of -3.6PPG. Chicago is 5-2 SU at home this year with a +/- of 8.8PPG but this isn’t sustainable. The Bulls are better this season, but they were 15-20 SU at home last year with an average Margin of Victory of -1.7PPG. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings and catch the Bulls in a bad spot. Grab the points. |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not going to overreact to one big offensive performance from KC. They walloped Las Vegas last week but prior to that this team was averaging only 17 PPG their previous 5 games. This team still is a shell of last year’s Super Bowl team. The Chiefs YPP differential is -0.3 and their defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1. That’s a bad match up vs a Dallas offense that is 1st in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and 1st as well in scoring at 31.6 PPG. KC is 0-9 ATS their last 9 home games (regular season) including 0-5 ATS this year losing by an average of 8 PPG to the spread. Dallas has been the better team all season long. They are the only team in the NFL ranked in the top 5 in both offense and defense DVOA. Their defense ranks 3rd DVOA vs the pass which matches them up very nicely with the Chiefs in this game. The Cowboys are also 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down defense with opponents converting only 32% of the time. That should keep Mahomes on the sidelines and the Dallas offense on the field in this one. KC continues to be overvalued based on their previous seasons. The better team is getting points here and we’re not passing that up. Take Dallas. |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
#426 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii +2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 11PM ET - We have you covered for the late-night tilt on the Big Island in Hawaii when the Rams visit the Rainbow Warriors. This is a tough scheduling situation for Colorado State as they travel to Hawaii after suffering their fourth straight loss last week to Air Force. After prepping for the Triple Option attack, they now must adjust to playing the more traditional attack of Hawaii. CSU cannot make a Bowl game at this point, and they face one of the best teams in the Mountain West next week in Nevada. Hawaii on the other hand still has a shot at notching 6 wins on the season with a win here and the at Wyoming to become Bowl eligible. The Warriors are a much different team at home than they are on the road. Hawaii has been competitive at home against some of the league’s best teams losing by 7-points to San Diego State, 4 to San Jose State and beating Fresno State. Hawaii has some horrible defensive numbers overall, but at home they allow 5.2-Yards Per Play and 25.4PPG which are better than the national average. The Rams offense has struggled this season, especially on the road where they average just 4.9YPPL and 3.6-Yards Per Rush. In comparison, Hawaii averages 5.8YPPL at home and 5.0YPR. Colorado State should not be favored here and with nothing left to play for don’t be surprised if they view this trip to the islands as a vacation of sorts. Grab the points. |
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11-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss UNDER 65 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
#391/392 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 65 Points – Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - The Rebels have really upped their defensive performance as of late holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 19 points or less. Those 3 opponents were Texas A&M, Liberty, and LSU whose offenses are all far superior to Vandy. The Commodores rank 123rd in total offense and 128th in scoring offense averaging only 15 PPG. Take out their games vs the 2 defenses they’ve faced ranked lower than 100th (Mizzou & UConn) and Vanderbilt is averaging only 11.5 PPG. They will struggle offensively vs this Ole Miss defense that is playing much better than their season long stats indicate. Offensively the Rebels have slowed WAY down compared to early in the season. They have not topped 31 points since October 9th which has resulted in 5 straight Unders. Mississippi has a huge game on deck Thursday (Thanksgiving) with rival Mississippi State so they don’t want to do anything to jeopardize their performance in that game. Nothing special on offense from them here and if they get a comfortable lead as the point spread suggests they will we expect them to sit key players, including banged up QB Corral, in the 2nd half at some point. Of Vandy’s last 36 road games, 26 have gone Under the total and we expect another one here. |
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11-20-21 | North Carolina v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - The Boilers are loaded this year returning 4 of 5 starters from last year and many of their key reserves. They have 2 of the top players in the Big 10 in Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey. We had them rated as the best team in the Big 10 entering the season and they haven’t disappointed. They have played 3 teams ranked inside the top 190 to start the season and won those games by 29, 25, and 44 points. Their most recent win was 96-52 vs Wright State, a team that is ranked as the top team in the Horizon League and finished last year with an 18-6 record. UNC, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked inside the top 225 and has had some fairly close games winning by 7, 11 and 16 points. UNC is coming off an 18-11 season, however they were just 3-7 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 40 last year which we’d consider solid competition. Purdue is currently ranked 3rd in the country on Ken Pom. Purdue HC Matt Painter always has his teams playing solid, aggressive defense. After 3 games this year (vs better competition that UNC) the Boilers have allowed just 36% from the field and rank 19th in defensive efficiency. They have finished in the top 40 in defensive efficiency for 6 straight years under Painter. UNC, again vs all opponents ranked 200 or lower, are allowing almost 44% from the field (ranked 236th) and they have allowed at least 83 points in 2 of their 3 games. They now face a Purdue offense that has scored 90+ in every game this season. Purdue is the much better team here and we’ll lay the points. |
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11-19-21 | Thunder v. Bucks -12.5 | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -12.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We can’t add a ton of statistical support to this game as the Bucks have been dealing with several key injuries to start the season with starters Lopez, Middleton, Holiday and Giannis all missing games. Statistically there isn’t support this season but last year the Bucks were 36-11 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +8.9PPG. OKC was 12-24 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -9.2PPG. Recently the Thunder were just a 9-point home dog to Brooklyn and got beat by 24-points. The line on that game clearly shows us this number on the Bucks at home isn’t out of line. Let’s also consider Milwaukee was just a 9-point home favorite over the Lakers. The Bucks are still without Lopez but everyone else and they won’t be looking past this OKC team with Orlando on deck. Bucks by 20. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta +7.5 over New England, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Patriots are quickly becoming a public team after winning & covering 4 straight. Around 75% of the tickets this week have come in on New England and the sportsbooks we track and that has pushed the line from a -4 opener to a full TD. Too much in our opinion and we’ll take the value on Atlanta. The Pats have been favored by -7 or more just twice this season vs the Jets & Texans. In their lone road game as a heavy chalk, New England had to come from down 22-9 @ Houston to squeak by with a 25-22 win. They have been a road favorite of a TD or more just twice since the start of last season struggling to beat a bad Houston team this year and doing the same vs the NY Jets last year (won by 3). Atlanta is coming in off an embarrassing performance @ Dallas losing 43-3. We love backing teams off blowout losses, especially as home underdogs. If they are facing a team off a blowout win (New England won by 38 last week) that’s even better. A buy low – sell high spot for sure. Prior to their loss @ Dallas, the Falcons had won 4 of 6 games with their losses during that stretch coming by 4 & 6 points. Since their 2 blowout losses to open the season vs Philly and @ Tampa Bay, the Falcons have adapted nicely to new head coach Arthur Smith’s systems on both sides of the ball. Since those opening 2 losses, the Falcons are 4-3 SU with 6 of those 7 games being decided by a TD or less (Dallas last week being the only outlier). Last week Atlanta was +8 @ Dallas and now they are +7 at home vs the Patriots? We’ll take the value with the home team on Thursday night. |
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11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over LA Clippers, 8:10 PM ET - The Clippers are 9-5 SU on the season, but they’ve benefited from playing 10 of those games at home. The Clippers record is very misleading because of the favorable schedule, and they have just 2 wins over teams with a winning record and one of those came against Charlotte who is 9-7. One of LA’s losses this season came at home against this Memphis team 114-120. The young Grizzlies are still trying to figure out how to be more consistent, but they seem to get up for the league’s best teams. Memphis has beaten this Clippers team, the Warriors and Denver twice. LA has a long injury list right now with three key players banged up as Morris, Batum and Mann are on the injured list. Memphis comes into this game rested, off a solid home win and healthy. Our computers has the Grizzlies favored by 3-points in this game so grab the value with Memphis. |
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11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -3.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for a very young Marquette team (352nd in experience – last in the nation) coming off a huge upset on Monday at home vs Illinois. The Golden Eagles were down 12 midway through the 2nd half and made a nice comeback to beat the Illini 67-66. Illinois played without their best player, All American center Cockburn. Illinois took 12 more shots, 7 more 3 point attempts, and creamed Marquette on the boards with a +20 differential. The Illini simply shot poorly hitting only 37% of their shots overall and 37% of their 3-point attempts. Prior to that win Marquette struggled at home vs New Hampshire (won by 5) and SIU Edwardsville (won by 11). In their game vs SIUE, who is ranked 321st nationally, Marquette never led by more than 13 in a game they were favored by 21. It was a 5 point game with 2:00 minutes remaining. SIUE followed that 11 point loss @ Marquette by losing to 357th ranked Chicago St by double digits. A Chicago St team that had a record of 10-92 the previous 4 seasons. Ole Miss has beaten two poor opponents handily. They are much more experienced starting 5 upperclassmen and they added some key transfers from Duke & Miami FL in the off season who are solid contributors already. They are a top notch defensive team (25th in defensive efficiency last year & 24th after 2 games this year) that will give this young Marquette team big problems on offense. We’ll lay the small number. |
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11-17-21 | Celtics v. Hawks -4 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -4 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - At first glance it looks like it would be hard to bet against the Celtics who are on 7-0 ATS streak but all streaks come to an end. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games – but the 6 spread losses came against some of the league's best teams. @Denver, @Utah, @Golden State, @ Phoenix, Utah and @ Brooklyn. Atlanta came home off that tough West coast trip and drubbed the Bucks by 20 and the Magic by 18 at home. The venue has a lot to do with this wager. The Hawks have the 4th best average point differential at home of +11.9PPG, with a 5-1 record. Last year the Hawks were 25-11 SU at home +6.3PPG. They had the 6th best offensive efficiency numbers at home (1.173PPP) and 13th best home defensive efficiency (1.109PPP). Boston 5-4 SU away this season but were 15-21 SU away from home a year ago with a negative differential of -0.1PPG. The Hawks have covered 23 of their last 27 home games as a favorite and the home team has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. |
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11-16-21 | Seton Hall +9 v. Michigan | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
#643 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +9 over Michigan, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This line opened up Michigan -10.5 and immediately dropped. We agree with the move as we pegged Seton Hall as a surprise team this season. The Pirates are 2-0 including a 36 point win over Ivy League favorite Yale who has a very solid and veteran team. The Hall is very deep this year with key transfers from Syracuse and USF joining the rotation. They already have 7 different players that have scored double digits this year (in 2 games) and head coach Willard will go 10 deep. They also match up well with Michigan’s top player, big man Dickinson, as the Pirates can run 4 solid big men at him throughout the game. Michigan is also 2-0 but they lost many key players from last year’s team (Livers, Smith, Brown, Wagner, and Davis) and might be a bit overrated entering the season. They struggled at home with Buffalo already this year winning by 12. The Bulls shot just 41% in that game and just 18% from 3 but were able to hang around despite Michigan making 54% of their shots and 40% of their 3’s. The Wolverines have also been terrible at the FT line this year making only 35 of their 62 attempts (56%) which could be their downfall in a tight game. Seton Hall keeps this close and covers. |
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11-16-21 | Oilers -108 v. Jets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Edmonton Oilers Money Line -110 over Winnipeg Jets at 8 PM ET - Oilers not only were eliminated from the post-season in May by Winnipeg - they got swept 4 games to none! Keep in mind, Edmonton was heavily favored entering that series and had won 6 straight regular season meetings over the Jets entering that playoff match-up. Suffice to say, payback is on the minds of the Oilers here but of course one should ever just loosely play revenge situations. The key here is that Edmonton has been playing fantastic hockey early this season and has been phenomenal on special teams too which could be a key here. The Oilers have the league best power play so far this season and and the Jets rank among the league's worst on the penalty kill. That sets this one up well for the Oilers to continue their early season success. Also, at the other end of the ice, Edmonton's long-time weakness has been goaltending but they are finally getting stronger play between the pipes to go along with their, as usual, high powered offensive production. So far this season the Oilers are the highest scoring team in the league! Also, the Oilers catch the Jets off an OT win Saturday that ended the LA Kings 7-game winning streak. Though Winnipeg enters this game off back to back wins this followed winning only 6 of their first 12 games. The Oilers, on the other hand, are a fantastic 11-3 on the season and continue to impress. Look for that to continue here. This price is in the pick'em (-110) range since the Oilers are on the road and that makes this a bargain price to grab the highly motivated team that has been playing the better hockey of the two clubs early this season! Take EDMONTON |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 66 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 66 Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 8:30PM ET - If you enjoy MACaction and a lot of scoring you will love this contest tonight. Both teams have plenty to play for with identical 6-4 SU records so energy will be high for this “Michigan” rivalry. Let’s start with the Eastern defense which has been atrocious in the past few weeks. Last week, EMU allowed 8.1-yards per play to Ohio U who averages 6.1YPPL on the season and gave up 34-points to a Bobcats averaging 24PPG on the year. The Eagles allowed 8.6YPPL, 672 total yards to Toledo the week before and 49 points. While we are talking about defenses, Western Michigan has given up 31 or more points in 5 straight games, in 3 of those they allowed 40 plus. WMU has racked up some gaudy offensive numbers in recent weeks with 533, 445, 398 and 648 total yards of offense in their last four games. The Broncos will have success on the ground against an EMU defense that gives up 195-rushing yards per game and ranks 107th in that department. Overall the Eagles give up over 430YPG which is 103rd in the nation. WMU is 29th in yards per game at 443.8 with 195 of those yards coming via the 34th ranked rushing attack. Ohio is the highest scoring team in the MAC and 22nd highest scoring team in the nation at 33.9PPG. Last season when these two teams met they combined for over 1,000 total yards of offense and 95-total points. The bet here is OVER. |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -3.5 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like the better team here coming off a very deceiving loss last week. The Rams played host to the Titans, who have now won 5 straight games, and dominated the stat sheet. They lost the game but LA was +1.2 YPP, +1.8 YPC, and +0.6 yards per pass attempt. Two huge turnovers did them in with QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to TD. The Rams seem to have very little home field advantage (3-2 record) so on the road, where they are 4-0 this season, we can pick up some nice value. San Fran, on the other hand, hasn’t won a home game yet this season (0-4) losing those games by 2, 7, 12, and 14 points. Last week’s loss was very telling. The Niners were in must win mode at home vs Arizona, who was playing without their QB Murray or their top WR Hopkins. Cardinal back up QB McCoy shredded the SF defense completing 85% of his pass attempts in that game. Arizona outgained the Niners by 100 yards en route to a 31-17 win. That same Cardinal team with McCoy at QB was dominated at home yesterday by Carolina losing 34-10 and they were held to just 3.2 YPP. Rams HC McVay is fantastic off a SU loss with a 16-6 spread mark in that situation. SF, on the other hand, has been a big time money burner at home with a 13-22-1 ATS mark since Shanahan took over as head coach. The 49ers have 3 wins this season vs Detroit, Chicago, and Philly who have a combined record of 7-20. When they’ve had to step up in class SF’s hasn’t been able to get it done. On top of that, this is a double revenger for the Rams who were favored in both games last year vs San Francisco and lost. We like LA tonight. |
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11-15-21 | Pacers v. Knicks -3 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3 over Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This sets up nicely for a bet on the Knicks as they are off a disappointing loss at Charlotte in which they led big but blew it late for an 8-point loss. That was Friday night so they are well rested going into this home game. Indiana on the other hand is in a tough scheduling situation as they played 4 west coast games, came home, got a big win over Philadelphia and now go back on the road to face the Knicks. New York has covered 6 of their last eight when playing on 2 days rest and have covered 13 of the last 19 meetings with the Pacers in the Big Apple. We like the small home favorite here in New York to get back on track with a solid home win. |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#249 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Ask yourself this question. Why is Tennessee only favored by 2.5 to 3 points in this game? This is a Titans team that just won 4 straight games as an underdog vs the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. And now they face the Saints a team that lost at home to Atlanta last week and are playing their back up QB? Fishy we say. The fact is the Saints match up really well vs this Tennessee team. New Orleans is #1 DVOA defense vs the run which is a huge part of the Titan’s offense, with our without Derrick Henry. Last week, their first game without Henry, the Titans rushed for only 69 yards on 2.7 YPC vs the Rams. Despite their win Tennessee was a bit fortunate in that game with Rams QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another interception that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to a TD. Tennessee was actually outgained by 1.2 YPP in that win. New Orleans QB Siemian has actually played quite well in this game and a half of work this year. He’s thrown for over 400 yards with 3 TD’s and no picks. While they did lose to Atlanta by 2 points this year, let’s not forget this Saints team beat Tampa Bay 36-27 a week early with Siemian getting most of the snaps. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS this year when coming off a SU loss and head coach Payton is 32-20 ATS in that role. The 7-2 Titans are a bit overvalued right now as their YPP differential is -0.3 and they are getting outgained in total yardage on the season. They won their first game without Henry due to LA turnovers. Now they face a motivated New Orleans team with a top notch defense off a loss. Sean Payton and the Saints are 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road underdog winning 7 of those games outright. Take the points. |
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11-13-21 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 54.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
#187/188 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – South Carolina vs Missouri, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Mizzou has a very good offense and terrible defense. They have allowed at least 35 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that did not reach 35 was Vanderbilt and Mizzou allowed a bad Commodore offense to 28 in that game. FCS team Southeast Missouri State put up 28 points on this defense which ranks 122nd and total defense and 116th in YPP allowed. Offensively, this team can score points. Their only 2 poor offensive performances this year were vs Georgia & Texas A&M who rank 2nd and 7th nationally in YPP allowed. If we subtract those 2 games, Mizzou is averaging 38 PPG on the season. Starting QB Bazelak missed last weekend’s game @ UGA but has been practicing this week so we expect him to go. The South Carolina offensive numbers for the season aren’t great. However, the Gamecocks seem to be peaking late in the year on that side of the ball right now putting up 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games including last Saturday beating Florida 40-17. On top of that, Missouri will be the worst defense they’ve faced this season. South Carolina has a middle of the pack type defense this year ranking 53rd nationally. However, in SEC play they have allowed 30 PPG with 3 teams getting to at least 40 points. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Columbia, MO on Saturday with light winds and no precipitation in the forecast. We like the OVER in this one. |