Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 66 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 66 Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 8:30PM ET - If you enjoy MACaction and a lot of scoring you will love this contest tonight. Both teams have plenty to play for with identical 6-4 SU records so energy will be high for this “Michigan” rivalry. Let’s start with the Eastern defense which has been atrocious in the past few weeks. Last week, EMU allowed 8.1-yards per play to Ohio U who averages 6.1YPPL on the season and gave up 34-points to a Bobcats averaging 24PPG on the year. The Eagles allowed 8.6YPPL, 672 total yards to Toledo the week before and 49 points. While we are talking about defenses, Western Michigan has given up 31 or more points in 5 straight games, in 3 of those they allowed 40 plus. WMU has racked up some gaudy offensive numbers in recent weeks with 533, 445, 398 and 648 total yards of offense in their last four games. The Broncos will have success on the ground against an EMU defense that gives up 195-rushing yards per game and ranks 107th in that department. Overall the Eagles give up over 430YPG which is 103rd in the nation. WMU is 29th in yards per game at 443.8 with 195 of those yards coming via the 34th ranked rushing attack. Ohio is the highest scoring team in the MAC and 22nd highest scoring team in the nation at 33.9PPG. Last season when these two teams met they combined for over 1,000 total yards of offense and 95-total points. The bet here is OVER. |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -3.5 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like the better team here coming off a very deceiving loss last week. The Rams played host to the Titans, who have now won 5 straight games, and dominated the stat sheet. They lost the game but LA was +1.2 YPP, +1.8 YPC, and +0.6 yards per pass attempt. Two huge turnovers did them in with QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to TD. The Rams seem to have very little home field advantage (3-2 record) so on the road, where they are 4-0 this season, we can pick up some nice value. San Fran, on the other hand, hasn’t won a home game yet this season (0-4) losing those games by 2, 7, 12, and 14 points. Last week’s loss was very telling. The Niners were in must win mode at home vs Arizona, who was playing without their QB Murray or their top WR Hopkins. Cardinal back up QB McCoy shredded the SF defense completing 85% of his pass attempts in that game. Arizona outgained the Niners by 100 yards en route to a 31-17 win. That same Cardinal team with McCoy at QB was dominated at home yesterday by Carolina losing 34-10 and they were held to just 3.2 YPP. Rams HC McVay is fantastic off a SU loss with a 16-6 spread mark in that situation. SF, on the other hand, has been a big time money burner at home with a 13-22-1 ATS mark since Shanahan took over as head coach. The 49ers have 3 wins this season vs Detroit, Chicago, and Philly who have a combined record of 7-20. When they’ve had to step up in class SF’s hasn’t been able to get it done. On top of that, this is a double revenger for the Rams who were favored in both games last year vs San Francisco and lost. We like LA tonight. |
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11-15-21 | Pacers v. Knicks -3 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3 over Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This sets up nicely for a bet on the Knicks as they are off a disappointing loss at Charlotte in which they led big but blew it late for an 8-point loss. That was Friday night so they are well rested going into this home game. Indiana on the other hand is in a tough scheduling situation as they played 4 west coast games, came home, got a big win over Philadelphia and now go back on the road to face the Knicks. New York has covered 6 of their last eight when playing on 2 days rest and have covered 13 of the last 19 meetings with the Pacers in the Big Apple. We like the small home favorite here in New York to get back on track with a solid home win. |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#249 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Ask yourself this question. Why is Tennessee only favored by 2.5 to 3 points in this game? This is a Titans team that just won 4 straight games as an underdog vs the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. And now they face the Saints a team that lost at home to Atlanta last week and are playing their back up QB? Fishy we say. The fact is the Saints match up really well vs this Tennessee team. New Orleans is #1 DVOA defense vs the run which is a huge part of the Titan’s offense, with our without Derrick Henry. Last week, their first game without Henry, the Titans rushed for only 69 yards on 2.7 YPC vs the Rams. Despite their win Tennessee was a bit fortunate in that game with Rams QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another interception that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to a TD. Tennessee was actually outgained by 1.2 YPP in that win. New Orleans QB Siemian has actually played quite well in this game and a half of work this year. He’s thrown for over 400 yards with 3 TD’s and no picks. While they did lose to Atlanta by 2 points this year, let’s not forget this Saints team beat Tampa Bay 36-27 a week early with Siemian getting most of the snaps. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS this year when coming off a SU loss and head coach Payton is 32-20 ATS in that role. The 7-2 Titans are a bit overvalued right now as their YPP differential is -0.3 and they are getting outgained in total yardage on the season. They won their first game without Henry due to LA turnovers. Now they face a motivated New Orleans team with a top notch defense off a loss. Sean Payton and the Saints are 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road underdog winning 7 of those games outright. Take the points. |
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11-13-21 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 54.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
#187/188 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – South Carolina vs Missouri, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Mizzou has a very good offense and terrible defense. They have allowed at least 35 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that did not reach 35 was Vanderbilt and Mizzou allowed a bad Commodore offense to 28 in that game. FCS team Southeast Missouri State put up 28 points on this defense which ranks 122nd and total defense and 116th in YPP allowed. Offensively, this team can score points. Their only 2 poor offensive performances this year were vs Georgia & Texas A&M who rank 2nd and 7th nationally in YPP allowed. If we subtract those 2 games, Mizzou is averaging 38 PPG on the season. Starting QB Bazelak missed last weekend’s game @ UGA but has been practicing this week so we expect him to go. The South Carolina offensive numbers for the season aren’t great. However, the Gamecocks seem to be peaking late in the year on that side of the ball right now putting up 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games including last Saturday beating Florida 40-17. On top of that, Missouri will be the worst defense they’ve faced this season. South Carolina has a middle of the pack type defense this year ranking 53rd nationally. However, in SEC play they have allowed 30 PPG with 3 teams getting to at least 40 points. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Columbia, MO on Saturday with light winds and no precipitation in the forecast. We like the OVER in this one. |
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11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +4.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa started the season on fire and moved all the way up to #2 in the polls which we knew at the time was nowhere near an accurate perception of this team. They won their first 6 games of the season but that slate was quite easy. They played only 2 teams through the first 6 that currently have a winning record. Those games were tight wins vs Iowa State, who outgained Iowa by 166 yards, and Penn State, who had their QB Clifford leave with an injury with PSU up by 14 points. In those first 6 games, the Hawkeyes were plus a ridiculous 15 turnovers which masked their offensive problems and simply wasn’t sustainable. In their most recent 3 games the Hawkeyes have come back to the level we thought they would be playing at losing by 17 vs Purdue, by 20 vs Wisconsin, and beating a bad NW team by just 5 points. Iowa was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined 300 yards. That includes last week’s tight win @ NW vs a Wildcat team that had been outgained by a combined 720 yards in their 5 Big 10 games prior to facing Iowa. The Hawkeye offense ranks 121st in total offense and 124th in YPP offense this season. They have scored just 31 total points in their last 3 games and now face a very good Minnesota defense that ranks 7th nationally in total defense and allows just 4.9 YPP. The Gopher defense has allowed more than 16 points just ONCE in their last 7 games. On top of that, Iowa will be most likely be starting Alex Padilla at QB as Petras is injured. Padilla has never started a game in college and while he played decent in relief last week, they still only scored 17 points vs a NW defense that ranks 92nd nationally. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing home loss vs Illinois. The Gophs had their chances in that 14-6 loss and outgained the Illini. In that loss, Minnesota was shut out on downs twice inside the Illinois 25 yard line, threw a pick in Illinois territory and missed a FG. Prior to last week Minnesota won 4 straight games and they have outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Gophers faced NW on the road a week prior to Iowa doing the same and won the game 41-14 outgaining the Wildcats by 200 yards – the same team the Hawkeyes struggled with last week. These defenses are both very good but we feel Minnesota has a big edge at QB with veteran Morgan vs a first time starter. They also have a large edge on the ground rushing for an average of 208 YPG compared to Iowa’s 114 YPG on the ground. This is expected to a be a low scoring grinder (total set at 37) and getting points, especially +5.5, will be key. We feel Minnesota has a great shot to win this game and if not we don’t see Iowa with their terrible offense winning by more than a FG. Take the points. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +14 over Boise State, Friday at 9 PM ET - This line is an overreaction to Boise’s big win last Saturday @ Fresno. Our power ratings have this line around 10 so we’re getting value with Wyoming. In Boise’s 2 other conference home games they were favored by 3 vs Air Force (and lost) and favored by 4 over Nevada (and lost). They are taking on a Wyoming team that is coming in with confidence after playing their best game of the season last week beating Colorado St on the road 31-17 outgaining the Rams by 120 yards. Wyoming’s offense has struggled this year but they made the switch at QB to Levi Williams which gives them more of a running threat and he responded with 116 yards on the ground last week and their highest point total since mid September. And that was vs a CSU defense that ranks 10th nationally. The Cowboys are also an attractive big underdog because their defense is outstanding. The rank 18th nationally allowing just 325 YPG and they have allowed more than 27 points only once all season. Boise’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be having lost 3 games here already this season and Wyoming has played them as tough as anyone. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less and we expect a closer than expected game here. Take the points. |
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11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - Let’s get this out of the way immediately, the Blazers haven’t won a road game this season 0-6. But the young Rockets have just one win on the season with a 1-10 SU record. Houston has the 5th worst average differential of minus -7.5PPG whereas Portland is +0.9PPG. Portland is far superior offensively with the 7th best offensive efficiency rating compared to the Rockets who rank 27th. Defensively these two teams are similar with Houston ranking 18th in defensive efficiency and Portland 23rd. The Blazers are off two tough road losses against a pair of the best teams in the West and step way down in talent here against the Rockets. Besides their lone home win of the season over a bad OKC team, the Rockets have lost every other home game by 8 or more points. Portland gets a big road win here. |
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11-11-21 | Pacers v. Jazz UNDER 216 | Top | 111-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216 Indiana Pacers vs Utah Jazz 9 PM ET - The Pacers are in a really tough spot here after playing in Denver last night. It’s a small sample size but Indiana has played two games this season without rest and those two games both stayed below the number and averaged 192 total points. Last night the Pacers faced a Denver defense that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they managed just 98 points. Utah is the 5th best team in the league based on efficiency ratings. Utah has allowed 107 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. These two teams are 19th and 20th in pace of play so don’t expect them to play fast here. Scoring continues to be down this year as games are averaging just 214PPG and this total is higher than that. Indiana has scored 110 or less points in 8 of their last ten and the Under has cashed 4 straight on Pacer games, 6 of their last seven. Utah Under in 6 of their last 8. This game stays below the number. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -6.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Love this spot for Pitt. UNC is off a back and forth energy draining 58-55 home win over Wake Forest last Saturday. The Heels trailed for much of the game, down by 18 points late in the 3rd quarter, but made a furious rally in the 4th scoring 24 points in a 10 minute span. That was facing a Wake defense that ranks 105th in total defense and the game was at home. They’ll have a much tougher time with this Pitt defense ranked 37th nationally. The North Carolina defense was shredded last week for over 600 yards and they were on the field for a whopping 90 plays so fatigue will be a factor here. The problem is, they face at Pittsburgh offense that is better than the Wake offense they faced last week. The Panthers rank #1 nationally is scoring averaging 45 PPG and #2 in total offense averaging 543 YPG. If the Heels couldn’t slow down the Deacs last week we don’t see them fairing very well in this contest. UNC has lost all 3 of their road games this season by 7 @ Va Tech, by 23 @ Georgia Tech, and by 10 @ Notre Dame. Pitt is significantly better than the first 2 listed and we have them power rated about 2 points better than ND on a neutral field. These teams have played a similar strength of schedule yet Pitt numbers are much better. The Panthers are +1.8 YPP, +1.1 YPC, +2.4 yards per pass attempt, and +198 YPG. UNC’s numbers are +0.9 YPP, +0.6 YPC, +1.5 yards per pass attempt, and +68 YPG. This Pitt team isn’t talked about much and they are flying under the radar. They continue to be undervalued covering 5 of their last 6 games by 81 points (average cover by 13.5 points). On the other side, North Carolina was an overhyped team coming into the season and they have not lived up to expectations. They are just 2-4 ATS their last 6 with their only covers coming vs a terrible Duke team and by a half point last week at home vs Wake. Pitt gets this one by double digits. |
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11-10-21 | Bucks v. Knicks -3 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks -3 over Milwaukee Bucks 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks benefit from rest while the Bucks are off a game last night in Philly and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Bucks are shorthanded without Middleton and Lopez out of the lineup and the lack of rest is magnified here. Milwaukee is 4-6 SU on the season and not playing well right now with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings 18th or worse. In comparison, the Bucks were the #1 DEFF team a year ago and 6th in OEFF. New York is 3rd in offensive efficiency this season and have improved dramatically on that end of the court. The Bucks struggled to beat a shorthanded 76ers team on Tuesday night and now face a Knicks team that beat them by 15 points in Milwaukee on Nov 5th. Milwaukee is on a 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest and New York has won 3 of the last four meetings. The bet here is the Knicks as a short favorite. |
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11-10-21 | Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 50 | Top | 49-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50 Points – Toledo vs Bowling Green, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - Last week both of these teams went WAY over the total in their games which sets this week up nicely for the Under. Bowling Green beat Buffalo 56-44 going over the posted total by 48.5 points! Toledo came up short vs Eastern Michigan losing 52-49 which went over the posted total by 46.5 points! Both games were way outside the norm for these teams and they oddsmakers are simply very rarely that far off. Even with those results, this week’s total opened at 51.5 points and was immediately hammered by pro money pushing it down to 50. The Rockets last 4 totals were set at 54, 54, 53.5, and 51.5 so very similar to tonight’s number vs BG. However, those 4 games were vs offenses that rank 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th in the MAC. Bowling Green’s offense ranks dead last in the conference. Throw out their worst game of the season last year vs EMU, and this Toledo defense allowed 15 points vs WMU who averages 29 PPG, 23 points vs CMU who averages 30 PPG, and 20 points vs NIU who averages 32 PPG. Even after their terrible effort last week, the Rockets still rank 1st in the MAC in points allowed and 2nd in yardage allowed. BG will struggle on offense. The Falcons defense is the strength of their team as well. They rank 4th in the MAC in total defense and they are #1 in the league in pass defense. Toledo’s huge scoring effort last week was an outlier as they averaged just 24.7 PPG in MAC play leading into last week. Prior to last week Toledo had played in 6 straight games that went Under the total. BG is 5-4 to the Under this year. Both are slow paced teams (82nd and 88th nationally) so possessions might be limited. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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11-09-21 | Hawks v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 98-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 9:10 PM ET - Atlanta is coming off a big game in Golden State last night while Utah is rested but off two straight losses. The Jazz beat the Hawks last week in Atlanta by 18-points but then lost in Miami and then suffered an embarrassing loss at Orlando. In their previous meeting the Jazz beat Atlanta handily without their best player Donovan Mitchell. Atlanta comes into this game playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. The Hawks are 6-10-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. The Jazz have the 3rd best overall Margin of Victory average this year at +9.1PPG, which improves to +13PPG at home. Given the scheduling we won’t be scared off by this number and will back the home team minus the points. |
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11-09-21 | Oilers v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
#15/16 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6.5 Goals - Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET – The Oilers are off of a 6-5 OT win over the Rangers and that means 7 of their last 9 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Edmonton has such a dynamic offense as evidenced by the fact they themselves have scored at least 5 goals in 7 of last 9 games! That said, it may not take much from the home team Red Wings in terms of goal production to get this over the total. However, we actually can expect plenty from Detroit as they have been quite scrappy of late plus the Oilers have allowed an average of 3 goals per game last 8 games. The Red Wings have scored an average of 3.3 goals per game when on home ice this season and have earned at least a point in 4 of those 6 games. Entering this game off B2B wins, Detroit is playing with confidence but so too are the red hot Oilers. That said, this is the type of match-up that tends to lead to plenty of goals and with the Oilers starting the unproven Stuart Skinner in goal, we like our chances. The 23 year old has only one career NHL start and that was last season and he allowed 5 goals in that one. He could struggle a bit but should have plenty of goal support here from the high-flying Oilers. As you can see, plenty of reasons to expect good goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 8-1 SU while the Hawks are a disappointing 4-6 SU. A major factor in those results are the strength of schedule for both teams as the Warriors have played the 28th easiest schedule, while the Hawks have faced the 8th toughest. In their last six games the Hawks have faced Phoenix, Utah, Brooklyn, Washington twice and Philadelphia. They are coming off a loss Saturday in Phoenix by 4 as a +3.5-point dog. In comparison the Warriors last four wins have come against Houston, New Orleans, Charlotte and OKC who are a combined 10-30 SU and none have a winning record. Despite the tough schedule the Hawks have a negative differential of -2.2PPG which will get us a cover here. Golden State is coming off a game last night and will be playing their 3rd in four days. Golden State was 6-9 ATS last season when playing without rest with a negative differential of -5PPG. Easy call with the Hawks here. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers UNDER 40 | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 40 Points – Chicago @ Pittsburgh, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This should be a low scoring, grinder type game. The strength of both teams are their defenses. The Chicago defense is coming off 2 subpar performances but those games were vs TB (2nd DVOA offense) and San Fran (7th DVOA offense). We expect them to bounce back tonight vs Pittsburgh offense that is 26th in scoring averaging just 18.9 PPG. The Steeler offense has topped 24 points only one time the entire year. Chicago’s offense is averaging just 14.8 PPG since Fields took over at QB (15.4 PPG for the entire season). They have topped 20 points just twice this year, once vs Detroit (24 points) who ranks 31st in the NFL in points allowed and vs SF (22 points) who ranks 25th in points allowed. The SF game was last week and that Niner defense is definitely trending downward after giving up 30+ to Arizona yesterday with their back up QB. Chicago ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.4 YPP and Pittsburgh is 25th in that category at 5.2 YPP. Facing an aggressive Steeler defense that ranks 10th in the NFL DVOA won’t be a recipe for success for the Bears struggling offense. These 2 have combined to play 15 games this season with only 3 going over the total. Chicago games are averaging 39 total points and Pittsburgh games are averaging 39 points so while this total seems low, it’s really not. The projected score based on the point spread and this total is right around Pittsburgh 23.5, Chicago 16.5. Again that seems low but that means both teams would have to eclipse their season average in points scored (Pitt by 4.5 points and Chicago by 1 point). We just don’t see that happening here. Take the Under tonight. |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
#467/468 ASA PLAY ON Over 49.5 Points – LA Chargers vs Philadelphia, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two of the fastest paced teams in the NFL square off here with the Chargers ranking 2nd averaging 1 play every 25.8 seconds and Philly ranking 5th running 1 play every 26.5 seconds. Needless to say we’ll see a lot of offensive snaps in this game which gives us more opportunities to score points. Both of these offense rank in the top 12 in YPP gained and each offense matches up very well with the opposing defense. LA likes to throw the ball with QB Herbert and the Philly defense ranks dead last allowing opposing QB’s to complete almost 75% of their pass attempts. Philadelphia is a solid running team (4th in rushing YPC) and the Charger defense sits dead last in the NFL allowing 5.1 YPC. Both teams are very solid on 3rd down (11th and 13th in 3rd down conversion rate) which keeps drives alive. On the other side of the ball, neither defense is good at getting teams off the field on 3rd down with the Chargers ranking 28th & Eagles 26th in defensive 3rd down conversion rate. The Eagle defense has had 2 solid performances since mid September and their opponents in those games were Detroit who ranks 31st in DVOA offense and Carolina who ranks 29th. In their other 4 games since September 19th this defense has allowed 41, 42, 28, and 33 points. The Chargers defense played well early in the season however over their last 3 games they’ve allowed 42, 34, and 27 points. The weather looks good in Philly on Sunday with highs in the 50’s and light winds. This final score projects in the 25-24 range and we like both offenses to top those numbers. Over is the play. |
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11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings have a record of 3-4 but they are better than their record. Their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points with their biggest loss coming by 7 points. They were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those losses. Minnesota currently has a + point differential along with a positive YPP & YPG differential. Baltimore is coming off a bye and a blowout loss @ home vs Cincinnati. While many may think this is a great spot to jump on them, we think the Ravens are overvalued. 3 of their 5 wins have come by 1 point vs KC (not as impressive as it once seemed), winless Detroit by 2 points, Indy in OT in a game they trailed by 16 in the 4th quarter. They also beat a bad Denver team and their lone impressive win was vs the LA Chargers. The Raven defense ranks 30th in the NFL in YPP allowed and they are giving up 65 more total yards than they were last season. Dating back to the 2016 season, Minnesota is 21-10-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss – they loss at home vs Dallas last weekend. We project this one to go to the wire. Getting nearly a TD with Minnesota is a solid value. |
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11-06-21 | Navy +21 v. Notre Dame | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#379 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +21 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is the epitome of a potential rush doubling underdog with a Navy team that is 15th in the country in average rushing yards per game at 224RYPG, while Notre Dame averages just 130RYPG (94th). This is not the best scheduling situation for the Irish as they come off two big games against USC and North Carolina with Virginia on deck. It will be easy to look past this Navy team that has just 2 straight up wins on the season. But a closer look shows us the Midshipmen are on a 5-1 spread run and still undervalued by the oddsmakers here. Navy had an impressive showing two games ago when they took Cincinnati to the wire before losing by a TD as a 28.5-point underdog. That same Cincinnati team beat this Notre Dame team a few weeks ago in South Bend. This is the largest spread of the season for Notre Dame, and we don’t feel they can distance themselves here against a pesky Navy team that has been beaten by more than 21-points just once this season and that was the first game of the season. The Irish have one win over 21 points this year and that was a fluke as Wisconsin gifted them 3 INT’s, two of which were pick 6’s late in the game. |
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11-06-21 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State OVER 68 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
#371/372 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 68 Points - App State vs Arkansas State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We will start with pace of play, or the number of plays run per minute in our analysis here. Arkansas State is the 11th fastest paced team in college football at 2.63 plays per minute. Appalachian State is 58th at 2.32PPM. App State plays slightly slower, but they make up for it with the 46th best Yards Per Point average at 13.6 while ranking 29th in Yards Per Play at 6.3. The Mountaineers are top 20 in total yards per game, top 38 in both passing and rushing YPG and average 34.8PPG which is 27th in the nation. Appalachian State has put up over 500YPG in 5 of their last six games. Last weekend, App State put up 521 total yards and 59 points against a UL Monroe team that is better than this Arkansas State defense. The Wolves stop unit (we use that term loosely) is 130th in total yards allowed per game, 122nd in passing yards allowed, 129th in rushing D and 128th in points allowed at 42.4PPG. Arky State has given up more than 50 points 4 times this season. The Red Wolves can play offense though averaging over 408YPG, rank 10th in passing yards per game and score 27.5PPG on the season. App State is down defensively compared to past editions and rank slightly above average in most key categories. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – NY Jets @ Indianapolis, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This under sets up nicely. The Jets offense has been poor all season averaging 16 PPG. Prior to last week’s offensive outburst vs Cincinnati (34 points – highest of the year) the Jets were averaging 13.3 PPG and had topped 20 points only once all season. Now they face the 5th rated defense DVOA and we expect a big drop off in this game. Last week NY QB White threw for over 400 yards and 3 TD’s. We expect a huge regression now that the Colts have 1.5 games of film on him. There is a reason White was drafted in 2018 and his first start in the NFL was last week. He’s only played in 2 games in his career. The Colts defense has played a number of higher ranked offenses this season (Rams, Titans, Ravens) and given up some points. However, they lower third of the NFL offenses they’ve faced this year (Texans & Dolphins) they’ve allowed an average of just 10 PPG. NYJ offense ranks 28th DVOA so they are in the same tier as those 2 teams. On offense we expect Indy to run the ball tonight. The Jets defense ranks 23rd DVOA at stopping the run and Jonathan Taylor is one of the best in the biz. After leading for much of the game last week and relying to heavily on QB Wentz, who threw 2 terrible interceptions late in the game and in OT, the game plan will be run heavy. We also look for Indy’s offense – one of the slower paced teams in the league (25th) – to control the clock and shorten this game. This total is tied for the Jets highest number of the season. Their game vs Atlanta whose defense (30th DVOA defense) is nowhere near as good as Indy’s was 46 as well. That game finished 27-20 so 1 point Over when the NYJ kicked a FG with 17 seconds remaining in the game. This total is an overreaction to what the NYJ offense did last week with a QB nobody had seen play. Under is the play here. |
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11-04-21 | Celtics v. Heat -6 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - Miami continues to play at a very high level while Boston is not. The Heat are 6-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming in OT in Indiana. Miami has the highest average point differential in the NBA at +16.7PPG, are 2nd in both offensive and defensive efficiency and enjoy a scheduling advantage of being off last night. Boston on the other hand is 19th in defensive efficiency and 21st in offensive efficiency with the 21st worst average point differential in the league. The Celtics are also coming off a game last night. Boston has 3 wins on the season and two of those have come against Houston and Orlando who a combined 3-13 SU this season. The Heat are on a 5-0 spread run while Boston is 0-5 ATS their last five as a road dog. Back the better team, laying a marginal number at home against an over-rated opponent. |
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11-03-21 | Hornets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 92-114 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - If I gave you one guess who the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is you’ll probably say Golden State. That’s a good guess, but the answer is actually the Charlotte Hornets at 41.1%. The Hornets are the highest scoring team in the league at 117.5PPG and look a little like the Warriors of old. Don’t get me wrong, the Warriors are still a upper echelon team but they’ve won a few close games with their of their wins this season coming by 8 points or less. Charlotte has quality wins this season against Portland and Brooklyn and are more than capable of winning this game outright. Last season these two teams played a pair of tight contests with the Warriors winning by 9 at home and Charlotte winning by 2 on their floor. The Hornets have covered 4 straight when coming off a loss and we’ll back them here with the points. |
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11-03-21 | Predators v. Oilers OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
#3/4 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Over 6 Goals - Edmonton Oilers vs Nashville Predators, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET – The Predators have been without David Rittich and #1 goalie Juuse Saros played last night. That means rookie Connor Ingram could be called upon here. He was successful in his first ever NHL start but the Predators gave up him a 3-0 lead and is much easier, as a goalie, to play with a lead like that. Tonight Ingram, or whoever gets the call for Nashville here, is unlikely to enjoy such a huge early lead and this situation has the makings of a very high-scoring game. The Preds have won 4 straight games and have averaged 3.2 goals per game in regulation time of last 5 games and should score well again here as Edmonton has allowed an average of 4 goals per game last 3 home games. The Oilers production in the offensive zone has been the key to their success as Edmonton is 7-1 this season and has scored an average of 4.1 goals per game in regulation time of their 8 games this season. This total is a 6 and 6 of the Oilers last 7 games have totaled at least 6 goals. The Oilers have the #1 power play numbers so far this season with a 46.2% success rate and the Predators power play has also been very strong at 25%. The Nashville penalty kill has not been so strong this season either and the Oilers can take advantage in this tough back to back spot for the Preds. As you can see, plenty of reasons to expect good goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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11-02-21 | Kings v. Jazz -9 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Sacramento King, 9:10 PM ET - At first glance you might think this is a high number but in reality, it’s low based on their meeting on October 22nd when the Jazz were favored by 6-points in Sacramento. Utah won that game by 9-points. Utah is 5-1 SU on the season with the 2nd best average margin of victory at +12.8PPG. The Kings are 3-3 SU with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. These two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency, but the Jazz are far superior in terms of defensive efficiency as they rank 3rd while the Kings are 25th. The Kings have matchup issues here as they’ve lost 5 straight to Utah with last year’s three wins coming by 22, 49 and 16-points. Lay the points with Utah. |
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11-02-21 | Braves +117 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 117 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves +115 over Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET – We are not overly concerned with the pitchers here as we like the fact that Atlanta is 7-0 L7 when coming off a loss and, after getting blown out at home in Game 5, we look for them to respond in Game 6 on the road. The pitching match-up - again, we'll take action on pitchers - is expected to be Garcia for Houston versus Fried for the Braves. Garcia has had only one strong start out of his four starts in this post-season. Fried is off a sub-par outing but has been very strong overall this year for the Braves and they are a solid 20-12 in his starts this season. The lefty also has solid post-season experience having made 4 starts in last year's playoffs and again 4 starts so far in this post-season. Atlanta once again responds big off a loss and gets it done here to capture the title. No matter who the starting pitchers are here, we will grab the road team at a nice comeback price (small underdog) on the money line in this one and bet Atlanta Braves +115 |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs OVER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – NY Giants vs Kansas City, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC is coming off their worst offensive performance in years putting up only 3 points @ Tennessee last Sunday. They had chances in the 2nd half pushing inside the Tennessee 30-yard line in every possession after halftime and came away with just 3 points. To put that in perspective, the Chiefs have played 63 games (regular season & playoffs) since the start of the 2018 season. They had been held to 10 points or less just ONE other time (before Sunday) during that stretch while scoring at least 35 points 19 times. Because of last week's performance, we're looking at KC's lowest total of the year on Monday. You think KC’s offense will be out to prove a point on Monday primetime TV after scoring 3 last Sunday? We do. The Chiefs should put up plenty of points vs a NYG defense that has allowed at least 27 points in 4 of their 7 games this year. The only teams that did not reach 27 vs this defense were Carolina, New Orleans, and Atlanta all ranked 24th or lower in YPP offense and 20th or lower in offensive DVOA. On the defensive side of the ball KC continues to be one of the worst in the NFL. They are 27th allowing 29 PPG, 30th in 3rd down conversion % allowed, and dead last allowing 6.6 YPP. The Giants have played a number of upper tier defenses over the last month including New Orleans, Carolina, and the LA Rams. They’ll take a big step down here. The Giants also expect 2 of their top offensive weapons back with WR’s Toney and Shephard getting the green light. The weather will be near perfect almost no wind. This should be a shootout. |
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11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #542 Atlanta Hawks -5.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from last week when the Wizards beat the Hawks by 11-points in Washington. The interesting part of that games is the fact that the Hawks were -4-points IN Washington and are now laying -5.5-points here. The Hawks shot 55% in the game but the Wiz made 8 more free throws and 7 more 3-pointers. Atlanta then followed up that loss with a horrible showing against the Sixers and a 28-point loss. Back at home we like the Hawks to get a measure of revenge here against Washington. The Hawks are 2-0 at home this year with a 18-point and 26-point win. Atlanta was 25-11 SU last year at home with the 8th best average margin of victory at +6.3PPG. Washington is 17-22 SU their last 39 on the road. Expect a big game out of Trae Young and cast at home. Lay it! |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Jacksonville vs Seattle, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Everyone watched the offensive debacle between New Orleans and Seattle on Monday night (Saints 13-10 win) and that has pushed this total lower than it should be. The total in that game was 42 and that was with Seattle facing one of the best defenses in the NFL (Saints 6th in YPP allowed and 3rd in DVOA defense), a poor offense (Saints 27th in YPP gained), and a team that ranks dead last in the NFL in pace. Now we’re getting almost the same number vs a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in DVOA defense & 31st in YPP allowed, a decent offense (Jags 13th in YPP gained) and a team that ranks first in the NFL in pace. Seattle’s offense hasn’t been great but they’ve faced 3 straight very solid defensive teams (Rams, Steelers, and Saints). Geno Smith and company will look much better vs a Jax defense that allows 420 YPG (30th in the NFL). Same with Jacksonville coming off a bye and facing a Seattle defense that ranks 31st in the same category allowing 428 YPG. This is the lowest total of the year for Jacksonville and the 2nd lowest for Seattle just 1 point lower than their game on Monday night as we mentioned. The weather last Monday night was poor (rain and wind) but looks perfect for Sunday. We’re comfortable with both teams topping 20 points in this game and we like the OVER. |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
#258 ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Revenger from earlier this year for the Colts. They weren’t playing well at the time and lost 25-16 @ Tennessee. Indy has since started to play much better winning 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in a game they led by 16 in the 4th quarter. This is a rough spot for Tennessee. They are coming off back to back huge home games beating both Buffalo & KC. Now going on the road for the first time in 3 weeks. Their 3 road games haven’t been overly impressive. They lost at the NYJ giving the Jets their only win of the season. Their other 2 roadies were wins @ Seattle in OT (Tenn was down 24-9 at half), and they beat a bad Jacksonville team. They were outgained drastically in each of those games with a -1.2 YPP differential @ Seattle, -1.3 @ NY Jets, and -0.9 @ Jacksonville. We still feel the Titans are overvalued. They are 5-2 on the season yet their YPP differential is -0.4. DVOA agrees with us as they have the Titans ranked 20th in the NFL right now (Colts are 15th). Indy actually averages more YPP offensively (5.8 to 5.6) and allows less defensive (5.8 to 6.0). The Colts definitely have the better defense in this game and their offense is starting to come around. QB Wentz has been solid since getting over his early season injury throwing 8 TDs and no picks his last 4 games. RB Taylor has kept the offense very balanced averaging 138 total yards per game his last 4. With a record of 3-4 and a loss already @ Tennessee, this is a must win for the Colts at home. Lay it. |
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10-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -2.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
#196 ASA PLAY ON 10* Auburn -2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Big mismatch situationally. Auburn is coming off a bye week where they were able to rest up and get healthy. Ole Miss will be playing their 5th straight week of brutally tough games without a break. That includes @ Bama, home vs Arkansas, @ Tennessee, home vs LSU, and now @ Auburn. The Rebel offense, while still good, has slowed down immensely since hitting their SEC slate. They were averaging 52.6 PPG in the non-conference but have been held to 31 points or less in 3 of their 4 SEC games. Their defense is among the worst in the nation ranking 100th in total defense and 98th in rush defense. The latter will be a problem here vs an Auburn rushing attack that puts up 198 YPG. The Tigers have a very solid offensive line and should dominated an Rebel defensive front that isn’t all that good and will most likely be worn down after the gauntlet they’ve faced over the last month. Auburn’s QB Nix looked great in his last game after getting a little extra motivation getting benched vs Georgia the previous week. He threw for 290 yards and had an 80% completion rate vs a solid Arkansas team. Auburn’s only 2 losses this year are at home vs Georgia (the best team in the nation) and @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions were at full strength. Ole Miss has played only 2 road games this season and one was a blowout loss @ Alabama and the other they had to hold on to be an OK Tennessee team 31-26. Night game in Auburn should be rockin’ and we’ll lay the small number. |
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10-30-21 | Georgia v. Florida UNDER 51 | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points - Georgia vs Florida, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The World’s largest Cocktail party takes place this weekend when Georgia and Florida meet for their annual showdown. According to our computer analytics you can bet and expect a lower scoring affair. The Bulldogs have one of the best defenses we’ve seen in quite a few years and put up some eye-popping statistics thus far. The Dawgs are allowing just 1-point scored for every 31.8 yards gained. To put that into perspective, in the last ten years no team has finished the season at 24.5YPPT or better. Georgia just faced three SEC teams that were top 50 in scoring per game, and they gave up a total of just 23 combined points in all three. Florida has solid overall offensive numbers, but they haven’t faced a defense like Georgia’s. In fact, the two closest defenses the Gators have faced this season are Alabama’s and Kentucky’s who allow a full 100-more yards more per game than Georgia does. Florida scored 29-points on Bama (who is down defensively by their standards) and put up 440 total yards. That equates to 1-point for every 15-yards gained which is roughly the national average. Against Kentucky, the Gators managed 382 yards and 13 points. Georgia allows just 209YPG on the season and holds opponents to just 3.4 Yards per Play (1st) so don’t expect Florida to move the ball successfully against this stop-unit. The Bulldogs are very pedestrian offensively and prefer to wear their opponents out with a power rushing attack that averages 193 yards per game. Florida has some solid defensive numbers overall (give up just 21.1PPG, and 16YPPT) and are especially good against the pass. Georgia plays at one of slowest paces in the country ranking 117th in pace of play. Florida isn’t much faster, ranking 73rd. These two teams played in a higher scoring game a year ago with Florida putting up 44 points and 571 total yards. That’s not happening this year and expect this game to revert to the low scoring contests like 2015-2019 which finished with 30, 34, 49, 53 and 41-points. The Under is now 7-3 the last ten meetings. |
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10-29-21 | Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 215.5 | Top | 75-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets, 10:10 pm ET - Scoring in the NBA is down dramatically this season with games averaging just 217.2 total points per contest, down from 224 a year ago. The Unders have been cashing at a profitable 62% rate with games staying Under the totals by an average of -5.8PPG. The interesting part is that pace of play is up slightly at 100.5 possessions per game but offensive efficiency as a whole is down to 1.070-points per possession. Last season the NBA average for OEFF was 1.120PPP. A big reason why is the adjustment in the number of fouls being called (or not being called), particularly on jump shooters which has impacted the number of free throws teams are shooting this year. In any regard, this game features two teams that rank 18th or worse in pace of play, are 24th and 25th in offensive efficiency at 1.026PPP and rank 14th or better in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks have held 3 of four opponents to less than 100-points and are scoring just 102PPG themselves. The Nuggets have held two of four foes to under 100 and have scored less than 105 in 3 of four. With this number being set higher than the league average we like the value with UNDER! |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -105 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -105 over Houston Astros, Friday at 8:09 PM ET – The Braves have been very strong at home in this post-season. Not only is Atlanta a perfect 5-0 in the post-season this year when at home, they also have been red hot as a host dating back to the regular season. The Braves are 10-1 in last 11 home games since a loss to Colorado in mid-September. We are not overly concerned with the pitchers here as we also like the fact that Atlanta is 6-0 when coming off a loss and, after getting blown out on the road in Game 2, we look for them to respond in Game 3 at home where they have been so strong. The pitching match-up - again, we'll take action on pitchers - is expected to be Garcia for Houston versus Anderson for the Braves. Garcia is off a strong start but struggled badly in the two starts prior to that. Also, in the regular season Garcia was much better at home than on the road and, of course, this is a road outing for him. Anderson has been very strong in the post-season and the Braves have gone 12-2 in his home starts and he continues to pitch like much more of a veteran than his young age of 23 would suggest as an experience level. Atlanta once again responds big off a loss and gets it done here. No matter who the starting pitchers are here, we will grab the home team at a very fair price (very small favorite) on the money line in this one and bet Atlanta Braves -105 |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +6.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Overreaction here to GB’s potential players being out. This line has moved all the way from -3 to -6.5 in favor of Arizona. WR Adams has not been ruled out and might play here if he has back to back negative Covid tests. Remember he did not test positive, he was simply in close contact. Even if he doesn’t play, the Packers have found a way to be successful without him in the lineup (6-0 with Adams out). This is one of the best teams in the NFL and capable of winning this game regardless of the situation. Let’s put this in perspective. This Arizona team was just favored by 6 at home vs SF a few weeks ago with rookie QB Lance making the first start of his career (Zona won the game 17-10 but they were outgained). Now they favored by a half point more vs Aaron Rodgers? Ridiculous. The last 3 QB’s the Cards have faced were Houston’s rookie Davis Mills, Cleveland’s injured Baker Mayfield, and SF’s rookie Lance. Talk about a huge step on for this defense on Thursday. GB is more than capable of running the ball effectively with RB’s Jones and Dillon vs an Arizona defense that ranks 31st allowing 5.0 YPC. If they can do that and open up play action for Rodgers, this game will be close throughout. The Cards have played 3 home games this year and 2 of those went to the wire vs SF (with rookie QB) and Minnesota (Vikes missed potential game winning FG as time expired). Their only easy home win was last Sunday vs a terrible Houston team. Green Bay’s defense ranks 7th in the NFL allowing 20.8 PPG and since their season opening debacle @ New Orleans, they’ve allowed an average of just 18 PPG. We don’t see Arizona running away with this game. GB has been tabbed an underdog just 3 times in their last 25 games and the highest number during that stretch was +3 this year @ SF a game GB won. Getting almost a full TD with Aaron Rodgers at QB is worth a take. Green Bay is the play. |
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10-28-21 | Knicks v. Bulls OVER 214 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - The number set on this game is largely based on these two teams from a year ago but a lot has changed with both the Bulls and Knicks. New York brought in Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to pair with Randle. The Bulls went out and signed Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan giving them additional pieces to go with LaVine. The Knicks style of play is different this season too as they’ve attempted 46 3-pointers per game this season which is significantly higher than the 30 they averaged a year ago. The Knicks are also making their 3’s this season at 38% which is 8th best in the NBA. The Bulls are the #1 3-point shooting team in the league right now at 42.3%. Chicago has played in a couple low scoring games this year against the Pistons (who might be the worst team in the league) but will have to score here. Both clubs are in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency with the Knicks averaging 119PPG and the Bulls checking in at 108PPG. Scoring is down early in the season but this number is set lower than our math model suggests. BET OVER. |
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10-28-21 | Bruins v. Hurricanes -130 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Carolina Hurricanes Money Line -130 over Boston Bruins at 7 PM ET - This is a horrible spot for the Bruins. They are in the 2nd night of a back to back situation. Boston has lost 2 of its last 3 road games. The Bruins are off an ugly loss to an undefeated Florida team, now face an undefeated Carolina team, and they have a revenge game against that same 7-0 Panthers team on deck in Boston. This game, as a result, has the makings of one in which the Bruins are going to struggle badly. Carolina is rolling and well-rested and has a winless Blackhawks team on deck for tomorrow night. The full focus for the Hurricanes is this game against Boston. The Canes are a perfect 5-0 this season and 4 of their 5 wins have been by 3 or more goals so they have been quite dominant. This is not the Bruins teams of old when they had goalies Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak both available. In fact, right now the top choice is Linus Ullmark and the back-up is Jeremy Swayman. With Ullmark between the pipes in last night's 4-1 loss at Florida, Swayman expected to get the call tonight. Swayman allowed 5 goals in his most recent start and that was a 6-3 loss at Philadelphia over a week ago. Swayman could be rusty here and though he performed well as a rookie last season he did go only 3-3 in his road starts. He, just like the Bruins, was better at home than on the road. That trend likely to continue here as the rested Hurricanes continue their unbeaten start and take advantage of a Boston team in a tough back to back spot facing an unbeaten team for the 2nd consecutive night and on the road again too! This price is in the -130 range but should prove well worth it! Lay it! Take the HURRICANES |
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10-27-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Nets | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game in the East between two teams that could contend at seasons end. Brooklyn is clearly led by the two-headed monster of Harden and Durant but they miss Kyrie and his playmaking ability. The Heat added Kyle Lowry in the offseason to pair with Jimmy Butler and Adebayo to get over the hump. Miami has gotten great play from Tyler Herro off the bench who gives them a legitimate scorer with the second unit. The Nets are 2-2 SU on the season and were just a -5.5-point favorite at home over Washington, who isn’t at the same level of this Heat team. Miami could easily be 3-0 this season as their lone loss came in OT at the Pacers. The Heat blew out the Bucks earlier this season while the Nets lost in Milwaukee. Brooklyn isn’t anything special as a home favorite with a 19-17 ATS record since the start of last season. Miami was a top 10 defensive team a year ago while Brooklyn was a bottom 10 team. Give me the dog and points here. |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros -129 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -135 over Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET – The Astros have been very strong at home. Houston finished 21 games over .500 in home games in the regular season and are 4-1 in home games thus far in the post-season. Note that the Braves have lost 3 of 5 road games in this post-season and just playing the home team in all Atlanta games in these playoffs would have netted you an 8-2 betting record to date. Framber Valdez is off a fantastic outing versus the Red Sox last week and holds an edge here in that he has always pitched in the NL and the Braves just don't have hitters with a lot of experience against him. Charlie Morton, on the other hand, is a former Astro who also was with the Rays in recent seasons. While in the starting rotation for TB he did end up facing his former team a few times. The last start he made at Houston was a disaster as he was charged with 6 earned runs in just 4 innings. Morton is a solid veteran pitcher but coming off B2B shaky post-season outings too. He walked 6 in 5 innings in most recent start against Dodgers and allowed 6 baserunners (4 hits, 1 walk, 1 hit batter) in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in the start that preceded that when he faced the Brewers. No matter who the starting pitchers are here, we are riding the more experienced post-season team in Game 1 and we will grab the home team at a very fair price (rather small favorite) on the money line in this one and bet Houston Astros -135 |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +4 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Would not be comfortable laying points on the road with this Saints offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in a number of key categories. They rank 29th in YPG, 25th in YPP, and they have the worst passing YPG differential in the NFL at -105. Since catching the Packers off guard in week 1, the Saints are 2-2 and have been outgained in all 4 of those games (wins vs Washington & New England). In those 4 games vs marginal competition (NE, Wash, Caro, and NYG) New Orleans has been outgained by 387 total yards. All 4 of those teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in total offense and all have losing records. Their wins vs Washington (by 11 points) and New England (by 15 points) are a bit misleading. Versus Washington the Saints scored on a hail mary pass at the end of the first half which gave them a lead at half when it should have been tied. Take that away and they win by 5 points vs a bad Washington team. Versus New England they scored on a pick 6 and they were +3 turnovers but got outgained on a YPP basis by the Pats. New Orleans is coming off a bye week but let’s remember Seattle has had some solid rest as well having 10 days between their games vs Rams & Steelers (most recent game) and now an extra day as well playing on Monday night. Not a big advantage for New Orleans in our opinion. QB Geno Smith has had more time to acclimate himself as the starter and he played pretty well last Sunday vs one of the top defenses in the NFL. He completed 71% of his passes for over 200 yards and 1 TD vs the Steelers in Seattle’s 3-point loss in OT. The defense isn’t great but they did step up last week holding Pittsburgh to 4.9 YPP. They won’t have to be great here vs this New Orleans offense. Rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight and a low scoring game is expected (total at 41.5). We expect a big effort from Seattle in prime time in their first home game since losing Russell Wilson. We anticipate a close game throughout with Seattle having a chance to pull the upset. Take the points. |
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10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229.5 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - We get two of the faster paced teams in the NBA tonight with the Bucks who ranked 3rd in possessions per game a year ago and the Pacers who were 5th. Both teams were also top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency with the Bucks checking in with the 5th best OEFF numbers last season, Indiana was 14th. The Bucks have Totaled 230 or more points in all three games this season. Indiana played in two higher scoring games to start the season but then had a horrible shooting night against the Heat last time out with just 193 total points. The Pacers shot just 39% against the Heat which is well below their season average from a year ago of 47.5% which was 11th best in the NBA. Last year in three meetings these two teams combined for 275, 253 and 240 points. Bet OVER here. |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
#468 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tampa Bay -11.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Bears. They like to establish the run as their passing attack is remedial at best. Chicago is the only team in the NFL with less than 50% of their yardage coming from the passing game. The problem here is, it’s really tough to run on the Bucs. They are allowing just 54 YPG on 3.4 YPC. It’s gotten to a point where teams don’t even try to run on Tampa as just 27% of opposing plays have been on the ground – least in the NFL. If Chicago can’t run, they are in huge trouble. Their offense has zero chance of keeping up in this game. The Bears rank last in the NFL averaging 4.3 YPP. They are averaging just 16.3 PPG which is 30th in the NFL and they’ve scored only 10 offensive TD’s in 6 games this season. Rookie QB Fields has played been the starter for 4.5 games now (came in at halftime of Cincinnati game) and he’s only completing 53% of his passes for an average of 138 passing yards per game. He’s thrown only 2 TD passes this year and the Bears as a whole have thrown only 3 TD passes which is the fewest in the NFL. They have topped 300 total yards just once in their last 5 games and that was vs a bad Detroit defense. Those offensive numbers won’t get it done here. Tampa will score points. They are averaging 32.5 PPG and at home they are putting up a remarkable 41 PPG this season. They’ve been a double digit favorite their last 2 home games and blasted Atlanta 48-25 and Miami 45-17. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this having played in Philadelphia on Thursday night. This is a revenger as they lost to Chicago last year in the infamous Brady lost track of what down it was game. He takes that stuff to heart and you can bet he wants to blast Chicago here. Double digit favorites in the NFL have been a successful 7-2 ATS this season and as long as this one stays under 14 points we’ll lay it as Chicago’s offense won’t be able to score enough to get this cover. |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team v. Packers OVER 47.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 47.5 Points – Washington vs Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Green Bay has been an Under team this year with 2 overs & 4 unders. This is a spot to jump on the Over in our opinion. The Packers are averaging just 24 PPG this season but they’ve played a very tough slate of defenses with 5 of their 6 opponents ranking in the top 12 in defensive DVOA. The only bottom half defense they played this season was Detroit and Green Bay put up 35 points in that game. Their opening game vs New Orleans (just 3 points) has also skewed their overall offensive scoring numbers. Here they face a Washington defense that ranks 31st in total defense and dead last in scoring defense allowing 31 PPG. They are allowing opponents to score points on 52% of their drives (last in the NFL) and they have been unable to get off the field on defense allowing a ridiculous 58% conversion rate on 3rd down (last in NFL and league average is 40%). Washington has allowed at least 30 points in each of their last 4 games while GB has averaged almost 27 PPG over their last 4 facing high end defenses Chicago, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Fran. Unless they completely implode, GB will score 30+ here. Can Washington score enough to get this one Over the total? We think so. They have scored at least 21 points in 4 of their last 5 and the Green Bay defense is the worst in the NFL in the red zone allowing an amazing 15 TD’s on 15 opponent trips inside the 20 yard line this year. Washington games are averaging 54 points this season and with the GB offense finally facing a bad defense, this has the makings of a high scoring affair. We like the Over here. |
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10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 vs UTSA, 7 PM ET - Meep, meep…here come the 7-0 #24 ranked UTSA Roadrunners! This is uncharted territory for UTSA who has never been ranked in the top 25 ever before and the impact in the line is evident. The Roadrunners have played the 96th easiest schedule to date with their best win coming against an average 4-3 Memphis team. Their other five FBS wins have come against teams with a combined 8-23 SU record. LA Tech comes into this huge conference showdown off an embarrassing 3-19 performance versus UTEP and will be primed for a game against a ranked opponent. In their game versus UTEP the Bulldogs had 3 crucial turnovers, 2 failed 4th down conversions and only scored once in five possessions in the red zone. Prior to that game, LA Tech had scored in 15 of 16 RZ trips. The Bulldogs have faced the much tougher schedule to date with 2-point loss to 6-0 SMU, 1-pt loss to SEC Mississippi State and a 7-point loss to 18th ranked NC State. The Bulldogs could very well have won all three of those games. UTSA is 10-2 ATS their last twelve road games BUT they were underdogs in all but one of those and they failed to cover as a road favorite. Since 2019 LA Tech has been a home dog just 4 times and they’ve covered three with an average loss margin of just -0.5PPG. |
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10-22-21 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 58 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 58 Points - Colorado State at Utah State, Friday 10:30 PM ET - The first statistics that jumped out to us in this matchup is the pace of play numbers. These two teams rank in the top 15 in terms of plays run per minute and both average over 76 plays run per game. That obviously favors a higher scoring game with more possessions for each offense. Colorado State has some impressive defensive numbers but when you factor in the offenses faced, the numbers become less impressive. CSU is 9th in total yards allowed per game, 21st in passing yards given up and 16th in rushing yards allowed BUT they’ve faced six teams that rank 107th or worse in total offense and another team Toledo who ranks 74th. But on the flip side, the Rams offense is much better than their season numbers would indicate as they’ve faced some of the nation’s best defenses. San Jose State, Iowa, Toledo and San Diego State all rank 47th or better in total defense, three of those teams are top 25 in yards allowed per game. Utah State is more than capable offensively with a unit that averages over 484YPG (11th) is 15th in passing and 59th in rushing YPG. The Aggies numbers aren’t misleading either as they’ve faced some solid defenses in BYU, Boise State and Washington State who all rank 60th to 79th in total defense. Utah State is near the bottom of the nation defensively in yards per game allowed (108th), yards per play allowed (112th) and 85th in points allowed per game at 30.6PPG. We have lost value in this number from where it opened at, but the move hasn’t been enough according to the math. Bet Over. |
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10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 223 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 223 Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat, 8:10 pm ET - We like the value in the number here and an OVER wager on these two Eastern Conference rivals. The Heat knocked the Bucks out of the playoffs two years ago, then the Bucks returned the favor last year on their Championship run. During the regular season a year ago these two teams met 3 times and all three finished with 227 or more points. The Over/Unders set on those games were 226.5 or higher so you can see the value we have here. An average NBA game last season finished with roughly 223 total points and this number is barely higher than that with two upper echelon teams in the East. The Bucks had the 5th best EFG% in the league last season, Miami was 14th. The Bucks were 5th in offensive efficiency last year, Miami was 19th. Both were top ten in defensive efficiency, but the Bucks struggled to defend the 3-point line with the 24th worst field goal percentage defense at 37.7%. Miami shot 35.6% from beyond the arc but expect that number to increase this season with the addition of Kyle Lowry who is off a 39.6% season. 6th man Tyler Herro has looked outstanding in the preseason, after a subpar season last year, and scored at will in the exhibition. Duncan Robinson was 5th in 3-pointers made a season ago. The Bucks were 4th in fast break points scored last year along with 10th in points in the paint, meaning they get easy opportunities. Milwaukee looked great in the opener against the Nets and it’s clear they plan to get 3’s up this season as they attempted 45 against Brooklyn. This all shapes up to be an above average score with more than 223 Total points. |
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10-21-21 | Braves +130 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves +130 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 8:08 PM ET – The Dodgers have not announced a starting pitcher yet but consider that this team has now gone cold at the plate and the Braves hold the edge and can close this series out with one more game of hot hitting. Los Angeles is expected to go with a true bullpen game here as no LA pitcher is really available for extended work and the Dodgers arms have not been nearly as strong in this series as they were in the prior series versus the Giants. The Braves have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game the last 3 games and we are going to take the hotter lineup and the team that has had the better bullpen in this series too and we are siding with the visitors in this one. Atlanta is expected to start Max Fried in this one and the southpaw has had a huge season and he went a combined 7-0 in August / September with a 1.46 ERA and has a 1.50 ERA in his two starts in this post-season as well. Even if Fried was not the starter and no matter who the Dodgers start here, we are riding the hot team in a potential close-out game and we will grab the road team at a nice come back underdog price on the money line in this one and bet Atlanta Braves +130 |
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10-20-21 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 232.5 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 232.5 Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10pm ET - Both these teams return nearly everyone from last years roster which means their won’t be a “breaking in” period with new players. The Kings return the blazing fast PG Fox who averaged over 25PPG and 7 assists per game a season ago. Second year player Haliburton (13PPG) is going to be a solid player for years to come, Hield is a proven scorer (career 40% 3-point shooter) and then they round out the roster with veterans Barnes and Harkless along with others. The Kings top ten in pace of play last year and 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.136-points per possession. Sacramento’s issues are on the defensive end of the court where they’ve been one of the worst in the league for several years. Last season the Kings were dead last in defensive efficiency ratings. Portland is eerily like the Kings when it comes to defense as they were 29th in DEFF allowing 1.160-PPP. Offensively they don’t play fast to score but are highly efficient, averaging 1.178-points per possession which ranked 2nd in the NBA. The Blazers “Big 3” of McCollum, Lillard and Nurkic can lead this team to the playoffs again in 2021 and we predict a fast start to the season. Last season in three head-to-head matchups these two scored 224, 258 and 242 total points. These two teams have combined for 234 or more points in 6 of their last eight meetings. The bet here is OVER! |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State +5.5 over Coastal Carolina, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - CC is undefeated this season but their schedule has been one of the easiest in the country. App State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this year. Coastal’s strength of schedule ranks 159th in the nation when including FCS teams schedules which says a lot since there are only 130 FBS teams. To date they have faced Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, UL Monroe, and Arkansas State. Not one of those teams ranks inside the Sagarin top 100 and their combined record is 11-26. App State is 4-2 on the season but they’ve played 4 teams that are better than any opponent CC has faced (Miami FL, ECU, UL Lafayette, and Marshall). It’s really tough to even strongly consider their offensive stats when the FBS teams they’ve faced currently rank 130th, 129th, 118th, 116th, and 113th in total defense (out of 130). On the other side of the ball the Chanticleer defense has faced only one offense ranked higher than 71st. App State has 2 losses on the season, a 2-point setback at Miami FL where the Canes needed a late FG to get the win and their most recent game @ ULL. That was by far their worst performance of the year getting blown out by a very solid ULL team but committing 4 turnovers leading to 21 points for ULL. App State was also 0 of 11 on third downs. Just a terrible performance by a solid team and we expect them to bounce back and play very well at home. These 2 met last year in Coastal where App was a 3-point dog and lost by 11. They outgained CC by 45 yards in that game. Now they are getting more points at home this year vs a team that hasn’t played anybody. CC has played 2 road games this year and one of those vs Buffalo went to the wire and turned out as a 3-point win for Coastal. This game will be much tougher. CC hasn’t played in almost 2 weeks which isn’t ideal at this time of year. App State has been great at home where they have a 29-3 record their last 32 and all 3 of those losses were by a FG or less. This sets up for an upset on Wednesday night and we like App State + the points. |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET – Each of Boston's last 6 games have totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged a total of 13.2 runs. The Red Sox just hammered the Astros 9-5 at Houston in Game 2 on Saturday and now, after a huge 12-3 win in Game 3 yesterday at home, they have won 9 of 12 games at Fenway Park. In those 12 games played in Boston, the Red Sox have averaged scoring 6.8 runs per game. The Red Sox should hammer Zack Greinke here. The right-hander has not started since September 19th and also was not overly dominant in his two relief appearances since then. Look for Greinke to be a bit off after the long time between starts and plus he got hammered by Boston when he most recently started against them. The Astros lineup should have a big game as well. Houston has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game in the month of October and yesterday was the first time they had been held below 5 runs in any of their games this month! The Astros should do some damage against Nick Pivetta as the right-hander was better in day games and road games in the regular season! This is a night game and a home game and Pivetta had a 4.85 ERA in night games and a 5.40 ERA in home games in the regular season. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one easily getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +6.5 over Buffalo, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bills are overvalued right now with their string of blowouts + a win over KC last weekend. Let’s remember that, while impressive, their last 4 wins have come vs Miami (with Brissett making first start this year at QB), Washington (with QB Heinicke making 2nd start), Houston (with rookie Mills at QB) and KC (who turned the ball over 4 times in the game to 0 for Buffalo & KC ain’t the KC of last year as they are 3-3 on the season). This is also a terrible spot for the Bills. They focused much of their off-season on beating KC in that game last week after losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year. That was, in essence, their regular season Super Bowl. Now they go on the road in a game the opener was set at -3 and it’s been bet up to nearly a TD. The Tennessee offense is getting healthy again as WR’s Jones is expected back tonight. RB Henry has rushed for nearly 4,800 yards in his last 40 games and they are very dangerous offensively if they can mix up the run and pass. We think they’ll do that tonight vs Bills team that has solid numbers vs the run but they’ve faced 4 rushing attacks ranked 19th or lower this season. This Tennessee coaching staff knows something about beating the Bills. Last year Buffalo strolled into town with an impressive 9-2 record favored by 3 vs this Titans. They left with a 42-16 loss. It was one week after the Bills played KC very similar to this situation. The dog has covered 6 straight in this series and let’s not act as of this Tennessee team is some slouch. They are 3-2 this year so this is a huge game for them and they won the AFC South a season ago. We’re not talking about Jacksonville or the NY Jets here. They are a playoff caliber team getting nearly a TD at home. This one stays close throughout and we’ll take the points. |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, Monday at 8:08 PM ET – Each of Boston's last 5 games have totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged a total of 12.8 runs. The Red Sox just hammered the Astros 9-5 at Houston in Game 2 on Saturday and now are back home where they have won 8 of 11 games. In those 11 games at Fenway Park, Boston has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game. The Red Sox should hammer Jose Urquidy here. The right-hander has not pitched since October 3rd and allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts of the regular season. Look for Urquidy to be a bit off after the long time between starts and also to continue to prove susceptible to giving up the long ball. The Astros lineup should have a big game as well. Houston has averaged scoring 6.8 runs per game in the month of October and has not been held below 5 runs in any of their games this month! The Astros will take advantage of facing Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez as he has a 5.95 ERA in home starts this season! This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - We love the way this one has set up. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, Cleveland, off a loss and back at home. They are 3-2 on the season with down to the wire losses @ KC and @ LA Chargers and this is a huge game for them. The Browns lost 37-32 @ LA last week but outgained the Chargers in overall yardage and on a YPP basis. They were also +117 yards on the ground racking up 230 yards rushing on 6.6 YPC. Their defense underperformed last week but still rank 7th in YPP allowed even with that showing. The D should also be well rested having not been on the field for more than 25 minutes (out of 60 minutes) in any of their last 4 games. Arizona comes in 5-0 and ready to be plucked. Last week they played host to division rival San Francisco and won 17-0 despite being outgained on both a total yard and YPP basis. That was a Niner team with a rookie QB making his first start and SF has many opportunities to win that game. The Cards are off back to back division games so this is a nice letdown spot for them. It’s also a terrible match up for their defense. Cleveland is the best running team in the NFL averaging 187 YPG on 5.4 YPC. Arizona’s defense ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed. Not only that, the Cards give up big plays in the running game allowing an average of 5 carries per game of 10+ yards (last in the NFL) and they are 31st in the NFL on yardage allowed on carries of 10 yards or more. Bad news for them is Cleveland’s running game leads the NFL in yards gained on carries of 10 or more yards. So Cleveland won’t need their passing attack to pick up chunk yardage on Sunday. With the successful running game will come a great play action pass attack which is perfect for Baker Mayfield. If he’s asked to carry a team in the passing game, he can struggle, but if he is just complementary to their running game, he can be very good and so can Cleveland’s offense. Arizona also relies on running the ball but they are facing a MUCH tougher Cleveland defense allowing just 3.4 YPG (3rd in the NFL). It’s supposed to be windy in Cleveland so the Browns dominance in the running game will be even more pronounced. On top of that, Arizona has been hit by Covid this week and one of their top defensive players, DE Chandler Jones, will be out. Who knows if there are more to come? Arizona QB Murray has been limited in practice this week due to a shoulder injury and his top target WR Hopkins may not play on Sunday due to an illness which we might assume is Covid since it has hit the team. Another one of Murray’s top targets, TE Williams is now out for the year after getting injured last Sunday. Despite their records, our power ratings have Cleveland the better team. They are +1.2 YPP differential while the undefeated Cards are +0.7 YPP. Now we’re getting what we feel is the better team, in a much more desperate situation at home coming off a loss. Cleveland is the play here. |
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10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team OVER 54 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
#257/258 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54 Points – Kansas City vs Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This has the makings of a shootout. The KC defense ranks last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 7.1 and they’ve allowed 4 straight opponents to reach at least 30 points. The only opponent that did not reach 30 points vs this sieve of a defense was Cleveland and they scored 29. Opponents are scoring on 54% of their drives vs this KC defense which ranks them last in the league in that category. KC’s offense continues to be nearly unstoppable. Last week they “only” scored 20 points against the NFL’s top defense Buffalo that allows just 12 PPG. In that game KC has plenty of chances getting shut out on downs inside Bills territory and committing 2 of their 4 turnovers deep inside the Buffalo 15 yard line. In their other 4 games the Chiefs have averaged 33.5 PPG. Now they face a Washington defense that is WAY down from last year allowing 31 PPG after allowing 21 PPG last season. In their last 4 games Washington has allowed 29, 43, 33, and 30 points. Two of those four teams that lit the Washington defense up are rated 22nd or lower in scoring this year (Giants & Falcons). Opponents are scoring on over 52% of their drives vs this Washington defense which ranks them 31st in the league. They will not shut this KC offense down who comes in off a loss. Washington’s offense has been clicking scoring an average of 27 PPG over their last 4 games and 2 of those games were vs Buffalo (#1 scoring defense) and New Orleans (#11 scoring defense). Now they face the worst scoring defense in the NFL with KC allowing 32.6 PPG. Oh by the way, Washington defense is the 2nd worst scoring defense in the league giving up 31 PPG. KC games are averaging 64 PPG this year (1st in the NFL) and Washington games are averaging 55 PPG (4th in the NFL). This one goes OVER. |
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10-16-21 | Dodgers -127 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. #905 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -125 over Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 8:08 PM ET – The Dodgers have not announced a starting pitcher yet but consider that this team, no matter who has been on the mound, has won 11 of 13 games and has allowed 3 or less runs in 10 of 13 games. Los Angeles could start Max Scherzer here as, even though he came in to pitch the 9th inning in the Game 5 victory over the Giants, he threw only 13 pitches. The point about the Dodgers pitching is that even if they go with a bullpen game here this team continues to dominate with pitching no matter who is on the mound. LA has won those 11 of 13 games also, thanks in part, to a red hot lineup. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7.3 runs in their last 9 victories! The Braves have scored an average of 3.7 runs per game last 7 games and we are going to take the better lineup and the better bullpen and the more experienced post-season team to get the win here in Game 1. Whether or not the Dodgers start Scherzer and whether or not the Braves start Max Fried, we are siding with Los Angeles in this one for the reasons outlined above. We will grab the road team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet Los Angeles Dodgers -125 |
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10-16-21 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska -4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on the Huskers last week and wound up with a push as they lost by 3 to Michigan. Nebraska fumbled in their own territory late in that game setting up the Wolverines for the game winning kick. Nebraska has been tested as much as any team in the country over the past month. They have faced three top 10 teams and stood toe to toe with all of them. They lost at Oklahoma by a TD yet outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis. A week later they traveled to undefeated Michigan State and lost in OT despite outgaining the Spartans by 186 yards! Then last week their close loss to Michigan. Those 3 teams are a combined 18-0 and Nebraska was close to winning each of those games. The only team they’ve faced in the last month that wasn’t in the top 10 was Northwestern and they beat the Wildcats 56-7. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been struggling with lower tier opponents. Their last 4 games they almost lost at home to Miami OH, won @ Colorado, lost at home to Bowling Green, and then beat Purdue but were outgained by 150 yards. The first 3 teams listed rank 104, 105, and 144 in College Football Sagarin ratings. Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota in Minneapolis, just lost at home by 15 points to an Akron team that had a record of 1-26 their last 27 games! The Gophers rely heavily on their ground game and they are now down to their 3rd string RB after losing starter Ibrahim in the season opener and then back up Potts was lost for the season in their most recent game vs Purdue. Their offense has put up an average of just 15 PPG and 270 YPG over their last 2 games. Nebraska’s offense is humming against top notch competition averaging over 500 YPG in their last 6 games. We see no way Minnesota will be able to keep up here. They take a huge step up in competition and if they are struggling to beat middle of the pack MAC teams at home, they’re in trouble here. The Huskers are +1.8 YPP differential on the season while Minnesota is just +0.2 YPP despite the difference in their schedule strength. Nebraska is MUCH better than their record and we see a double digit win on Saturday. Lay the small number with the Huskers. |
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10-15-21 | Marshall v. North Texas UNDER 67 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #117/118 UNDER 67 Marshall vs North Texas, Friday 7 PM ET - Our computer simulators are predicting 60 or less points in this Conference USA showdown. If we do a quick comparison, we see North Texas recently played a similar team to Marshall in LA Tech a few weeks ago and Vegas had set a number of 64.5. That game stayed below the Total with just 41-points scored. Marshall also played a team that resembles UNT in Middle Tennessee State which finished with 62-Total points and Under 66. The Mean Green are coming off a very high scoring game against SEC Missouri but most of their yardage and points came in garbage time after they were down 41-14. That game also featured an uncharacteristic number of big plays with a 40-yard INT for a TD and 3 TD’s of 50+ yards. Marshall is coming off a low scoring affair against Old Dominion which was tied at 13 points apiece prior to overtime. The Herd rely on a passing attack that is 6th in the nation in passing yards per game at 358 but the Mean Green rank 50th in passing yards allowed per game. Not to mention, UNT has faced 4 offenses this year that rank 36th or better in passing which makes their defensive numbers even more impressive. We know North Texas will want to exploit the Herd’s rushing defense that allows over 212RYPG this year which ranks them 119th in the country. North Texas is averaging over 200RYPG on the season and should have success on the ground here. UNT on a 4-1 Under run while Marshall 4-0 Under their last four Conference USA games. Bet Under here. |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 9:07 PM ET – NOTE: Corey Knebel now starting for LA but only as an opener. Urias will get the bulk of the work per all reports we have seen. We like action with this play no matter which pitcher starts. The Dodgers pitching has been fantastic as they have allowed only 2.3 runs per game in the last 7 games. The Giants are certainly in line for strong pitching in this one as well with Logan Webb going 7-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his 13 home starts this season. 10 of those 13 starts resulted in an under! The Dodgers Julio Urias is 14-2 with a 2.67 ERA in his road starts this season! Urias enters this start in top form with a 1.10 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Giants Webb has a 1.83 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Also, against the Dodgers, Webb has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in last 3 starts facing them. Urias, against the Giants, has also allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts facing them. Both these guys started earlier in the series and were great. With playoff pressure at its highest in this winner-takes-all Game 5, look for both lineups to struggle at the plate. Before the Dodgers big Game 4 win, they had been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of 4 games. The Giants have averaged only 2.2 runs in this series thus far! Look for both the righty Webb and the lefty Urias to come up big here and the bullpens are in good shape too considering the off day yesterday. That being said, after Tuesday's game reached the over because of the Dodgers having a huge game at the plate, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Thursday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points- Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both of these teams play at a fast pace which should give us plenty of offensive opportunities. Tampa ranks #1 in the NFL in pace averaging 1 play every 25 seconds and Philly is #5 in that category at 1 play every 26.4 seconds. Both offenses are extremely efficient with each ranking in the top 10 averaging more than 6 YPP. Tampa has been in 4 high scoring games and just 1 low scoring game. Their only stinker on offense was @ New England in a driving rainstorm vs a coach who knows what it takes to slow down a Brady led offense. Their other 4 games all went over the total and all reached at least 58 points with an average combined score of 63 points. The Eagle defense has faced 2 similar offenses this year in Dallas & KC and they allowed 41 & 42 points in those 2 games respectively. Philly will have to keep up on offense here if they want a shot at a win. We think they can. The Tampa defense has dropped off drastically from last season allowing 24 PPG after allowing 21 PPG last season. They’ve had 2 good defensive efforts this year but those were vs 2 offensive teams that rank near the bottom of the NFL in a number if key categories (Miami & New England – 31st & 27th in YPP offense). In their other 3 games the Bucs have allowed 34, 29, and 25 points. This selection is being made on Tuesday and as of now the weather looks perfect in Philly on Thursday night. Tom Brady did injure his thumb last Sunday @ Miami but he did so early in the game and still went on to throw for over 400 yards and 5 TD’s. Reports as of Tuesday say he will be fine on Thursday. The projected final score of this game based on the 7 point spread is Tampa 29.5 – Philadelphia 22.5. Our projections has both teams topping those numbers with TB pushing into the 30’s and the Eagles to the mid 20’s. Take the OVER on Thursday night. |
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10-12-21 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 5:15 PM ET – Charlie Morton starts for the Braves here and he was fantastic in Game 1 of this series. He took the loss in the 2-1 Brewers win but Morton allowed just 3 hits and struck out 9 in 6 innings! Morton is now 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA in the last 3 post-seasons combined! Milwaukee starts Eric Lauer in this one. Lauer had a rough final start of the season but this was after he went 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his 5 starts in September. He can hold the Braves in check here as Atlanta has scored only 2.3 runs per game in this series and the under has cashed in 6 of last 7 Atlanta games. As for the Brewers sticks, they have now been shutout in back to back games plus only scored 2 runs in their game 1 win. Dating back to the regular season, Milwaukee has averaged only 2.6 runs per game last 9 games. That being said, and considering that all 3 games in this series have totaled just 3 runs, look for this one to be yet another tight game throughout with runs again coming at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-11-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants, Monday at 9:37 PM ET – The Dodgers Max Scherzer went 15-4 with a 2.45 ERA in the regular season. Though he had a couple of tough late season starts one of those was at Coors Field. The O/U went 11-20 in his starts this season and he is they type of elite hurler that is capable of completely dominating an opponent every time he steps on the mound. Look for him to come up with one of those dominating starts here. Scherzer was dominant for the Nationals in the 2019 post-season. He is one of those guys you want on the mound in a situation like this one! As for the Giants, they have a pitcher in top form on the mound for this one! Alex Wood is a former Dodgers pitcher so he has plenty of post-season experience. He also enters this start off a September in which he made 3 starts and compiled a 1.38 ERA and San Francisco won all 3 games and all 3 were unders! We expect another strong performance from Wood here and yet another under being recorded as well! In 6 career starts against the Dodgers, Wood has a 3.34 ERA and the O/U is 1-4 with a push. The O/U is 0-4 in the Giants last 4 games against a right-handed starter. Look for both the righty Scherzer and the lefty Wood to come up big here and the bullpens are in good shape too considering the off day yesterday. That being said, after Saturday's game reached double digits because of the Dodgers having a huge game at the plate, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7.5 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Monday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#475 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +5.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has started the season a perfect 4-0 while San Fran is off back to back home losses vs Green Bay & Seattle. Thus, this line is higher than it should be according to our power ratings. If this was the season opener, we’re looking at right around pick-em for a line and now we get the Niners at +5. Arizona was very fortunate in their only home tilt this year as the Vikings missed a FG at the buzzer that would have given them the win (Zona won 34-33). They struggled to a 31-19 win @ Jacksonville but the Cards were trailing 19-10 late in the 3rd quarter in that game when a pick 6 turned the game around (Jax also had 4 TO’s). After picking up a nice win last week @ LA Rams (Rams were in letdown spot of win over Bucs) the Cardinals stock is a bit high right now. San Fran lost 28-21 at home to Seattle last week but they dominated the stat sheet with a +2.0 YPP differential, +1.1 YPC differential, and 9 more first downs. Starting QB Garoppolo was injured and rookie QB Lance came in an did very well in the 2nd half. While Lance was in the game the 49ers outgained Russell Wilson and the Seahawks 230 to 170 so he played well. It looks like he will most likely start this weekend which will be tough on Arizona with San Francisco bringing an entirely different offensive gameplan to the table that HC Shanahan has been waiting to unleash. The Cardinal defense will be running blind in this one as far as being able to game plan for the SF offense. The last 14 times San Francisco was coming off back to back losses as favorites, they were 11-3 ATS in their next game. This has been an underdog series with the puppy going 5-0-1 ATS the last 6 meetings including 4 outright wins. Last year the Niners were 6 point underdogs @ Arizona with CJ Beathard at QB and won the game! This is a buy low (SF) / sell high (Arizona) spot for us and we like the 49ers to get the cover. |
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10-10-21 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 52 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – NY Giants vs Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Dallas offense is humming right now ranking 4th in the NFL at 31.5 PPG. They have scored 77 points in 2 games at home this season including 36 last week vs Carolina, who did have the top defense in the league entering the game allowing just 10 PPG on 3.7 YPP. Dallas shredded the Panthers last week for 7.7 YPP which was a full 4 YPP more than they were allowing entering the game. Now they face an NYG defense that ranks 23rd in YPP allowed which is the lowest of any team the Cowboys have faced so far. They will continue to put points on the board in this game. Surprising to many, the Giants offense ranks 8th in the NFL in YPP at 6.2. We were ultra impressed with their offense last week as they rolled up an average of 8.1 YPP on a very good New Orleans defense. Dallas owns the 30th ranked defense allowing 6.4 YPP. So we have 2 good offense, each facing the worst defense they’ve played this season. All but 1 of the Cowboys games this year have reached at least 60 points and that was vs the Chargers who’ve held a number of top notch offenses to their season lows. 9 of the last 12 meetings in Dallas have gone OVER the total and these two have scored an average of 55 points in those 12 meetings. Both teams capable of hitting high 20’s to 30+ so OVER is the play. |
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10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
#931/932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET – After the wild 14-6 Red Sox win on Friday, look for things to return to typical playoff baseball in this one. Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen has a 1.93 ERA in his 10 starts this season and 7 of them stayed under the total. Rasmussen has a 1.20 ERA in his last 3 starts. Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston and he has given up only 1 earned run in 11 and 1 / 3 innings in his last two starts. Also, in Eovaldi's last two home starts versus the Rays he has allowed just 1 earned run on only 6 hits while striking out 18 in 14 innings! Both teams have been trending heavily to the under in recent weeks and have not had back to back overs in over two weeks. That being said, after Friday's slugfest, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska UNDER 50 | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
#381/382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50 Points – Michigan vs Nebraska, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We like the value in the number here when we consider the Wolverines just faced a Badgers team in Madison with a Total set of 43.5-points. That game did go Over the number but Wisconsin gifted UM with several turnovers which resulted in easy scores. Nebraska is coming off a game against a bad Northwestern defense and put up 56-points which has forced the oddsmaker to adjust this number up. This game shapes up to be very similar to the Michigan State/Nebraska game which finished with 43-total points in OT. We get two of the top 13 scoring defenses in the country squaring off as the Huskers rank 13th in points allowed per game at 15.5 while the Wolverines have given up just 12.8PPG Nebraska 17th in rushing attempts per game at 43.8, Michigan is 11th at 45.8. But both will have a hard time running the football against each other’s defense as the Wolverines allow just 3.3-Yards Per Rush (24th), while the Huskers give up just 3.5YPR (32nd). Michigan has some strong Over support overall, but when coming off a SU win they are 2-4 Under their last six. The Under is 7-0 in NU's past seven as a dog. |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
#346 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Jose State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Big time red flags over the last month with this SJSU team. Their travel schedule has been brutal and it’s started to show. This will be their 4th road game in their last 5 games. Since September 4th they have played @ USC, @ Hawaii (long travel), @ Western Michigan (long travel), at home last week vs a terrible NM State team and now @ CSU who is coming off a bye week. In their most recent 3 games the Spartans did beat Hawaii 17-13 but they only gained 291 yards on 3.7 YPP vs a Rainbow defense that allows 5.4 YPP on the season (ranked 67th). SJSU then went to Western Michigan and got rolled 23-3 while getting outgained by 228 yards. Last week they played host to New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in college football, and won 37-31 and only outgained the Aggies by 19 yards. That’s an “almost” home loss to a NM State that that is 1-6 this season (only win vs an FCS team) and has won only 5 of their last 26 games. Starting QB Starkel didn’t play in that game and might not here. CSU has shown some solid growth over the last month beating a solid Toledo team on the road 22-6 and they followed that up with a tight 24-14 loss @ #3 Iowa, a game they led at halftime. The Rams outgained Toledo and were out yarded by just 28 total yards vs the Hawkeyes. This team is rested and headed in the right direction. Their opponent SJSU is not. Lay the small number in this one. |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers -110 v. Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. #921 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -115 over San Francisco Giants, Friday at 9:37 PM ET – The Giants have been hot but the Dodgers are even hotter. Riding the momentum of Wednesday's dramatic walk-off win in the Wild Card game, Los Angeles now is on an 8-game winning streak and flying high with confidence. The Giants have also been red hot of course and did win the NL West Division but the playoff experience of this Dodgers team is also an added edge especially in Game 1 of a series. The Giants are starting Logan Webb and he has had a fantastic season, particularly at home, but allowed 4 earned runs in his final start of the season and it was at home too. Webb does have solid long-term numbers versus the Dodgers but is only 1-2 in his decisions against them. Walker Buehler is a fantastic 7-1 in his career decisions against the Giants and, best of all, that lone loss was in his most recent start against them. Buehler had dominated the Giants, including this season, until things fell apart when he last faced them early last month. That will have Buehler especially locked in for this revenge rematch and he should resume the long-term dominance at San Francisco. In his final two starts of the regular season Buehler allowed just 1 earned run on only 6 hits in 12 innings while striking out 16. The Dodgers have won 14 of 19 post-season games the past two seasons combined. The Giants have not even been in the post-season since 2016. Based on recent current form we have the slight starting pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge plus overall situational edge both (especially with post-season experience) are with the red hot road team in this one. We will grab the road team at a very fair small favorite price on the money line in this one and bet Los Angeles Dodgers -115 |
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10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
#307 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +29.5 over Cincinnati, Friday at 7 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off games vs Indiana & Notre Dame and they have UCF on deck. All off-season the talk was if this team can get by IU and the Irish they have a great shot at an undefeated season. Those 2 games were this teams “Super Bowls” so to speak and playing a home game as nearly a 30 point favorite after beating the Irish will be tough. The only other potential roadblock on their way to an undefeated season is probably UCF next week so focusing on Temple won’t be easy. The Owls are better than people might think. Their defense is very solid allowing just 313 YPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they held a potent Memphis offense to just 5.8 YPP and the Tigers had just 385 total yards of offense entering their final offensive possession with 2:30 remaining in the game. Memphis scored with 30 seconds left to cut the Temple lead to 3 points but the Owls held on to win. The Temple offense struggled in mid September but much of that was because their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) was out with an injury. He’s been back for their last 2 games and led the Owls to 72 points while passing for over 600 yards and 2 TD’s. Now we don’t expect him to put up those numbers vs Cincy but he’ll do enough to keep them within this huge number. This isn’t the same Temple team that was routed by Rutgers in the season opener. They are much better and that game was extremely misleading as well with the Owls turning the ball over 6 times in that game. Because of that, we are still getting line value with Temple who is now at full strength. These two AAC rivals last met in 2019 and Cincinnati was a 7.5 point home favorite and beat Temple 15-13. Now they are laying almost 30 points! Temple has covered 5 straight in this series and we think their defense is solid enough to not let the Bearcat offense go wild in this game. Their offense is also underrated and may not need to score many points to keep this within the number. Take the points with Temple. |
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10-07-21 | Rams -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -2 over Seattle, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Rams. They are the better team and coming off a loss last Sunday at home vs Arizona. It wasn’t overly surprising as, despite it being a division game, it was a big time letdown spot for the Rams after beating up on Tampa Bay a week earlier. Despite their 37-20 loss to the Cards, the yardage was about dead even (6.3 YPP to 6.2 YPP) but LA had 2 key turnovers that directly led to 14 points for Arizona. The Rams also missed a FG and were shut out on downs at the Arizona 1-yard line. Seattle is coming off a game they had to win @ San Francisco after losing back to back games vs the Titans & Vikings. Those 2 losses don’t look great for Seattle now as Tennessee just lost to the Jets and Minnesota was ousted at home by Cleveland. The Seahawks did what they needed to do last week picking up a 28-21 win vs the Niners. It wasn’t all that impressive however as they were outgained by a wide margin (6.3 YPP to 4.3 YPP) and SF starting QB Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half due to an injured leg leaving it up to inexperienced rookie Trey Lance. With Lance running the show in the 2nd half the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 230 to 172 but a key fumble from the rookie led to a 14 yard TD drive for the Seahawks which turned out to be the difference in the game. Seattle is also pretty banged up right now with 3 starters on both offense and defense possibly out on Thursday including top WR Metcalfe who has a foot injury. These 2 met 3 times last year (playoffs included) and the Rams won 2 of the 3 games including a 30-20 win @ Seattle in the playoffs and they outgained the Hawks 1,056 to 903. And that was with Jared Goff at QB not Matthew Stafford who is a big upgrade. Seattle used to be a covering machine at home but that hasn’t been the case as of late. They are just 8-10 ATS their last 18 home tilts dating back to the 2018 season. We like the better team, with the better defense, off a loss here. Take the Rams. |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
#939/940 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET – At first glance and considering Scherzer is on the mound for the Dodgers and this is playoff baseball, one might be leery of playing an over. However, Scherzer was hit hard in each of his last two starts this season. He got rocked for 5 earned runs each time and both games, as you would expect, went over their respective totals. Though he had success against the Cardinals this season, this St Louis team was so hot to close out the season, including at the plate, that it is just hard to doubt the St Louis hitters no matter who they are facing. They also showed strong late season trending to the over in road games. Speaking of strong trending to overs, the Dodgers final 5 games - all at home by the way - all resulted in overs. Not only that, LA scored an average of 9 runs per game in those five games. Wainwright starts for the Cardinals here and allowed 3 homers over 11 innings in his final two starts of the regular season. This included getting roughed up at Milwaukee for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his final road start of the season. This total is in the 7.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting very close, if not into, double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying some success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51.5 Points – Las Vegas vs LA Chargers, Monday at 8 PM ET - We don’t expect this division battle to get to 50 points so we’re on the UNDER tonight. 8 of the last 9 meetings have not topped 50 points (in regulation). Last year both meetings went Over however one of those games went to OT and they combined for 9 points in OT otherwise it would have been Under. The Las Vegas passing game likes to attack defenses with deeper routes but this is a poor match up for them as the Chargers are the best in the league at preventing completed passes that travel 15+ yards. The Chargers defense also limits opposing QB’s to 6.6 yards per pass attempt and they’ve limited 2 of their 3 opponents to 20 points or less. That includes Dallas who has one of the top offenses in the league. The lone team to top 20 points was KC and even in that game they held the Chiefs to 24 points. If LAC can limit big plays the Raiders will struggle to score at the same rate they have so far this season. We like what new LAC HC Staley is doing with their defense as he led a top notch stop unit for the LA Rams before taking this job. On offense the Chargers scored just 20 & 17 in their first 2 games before hitting 30 last week @ KC, who has the worst defense in the NFL. Even in that game 10 of their 30 points came in the final 2:14 of the game. Vegas has much improved defensive numbers ranking 9th in the NFL allowing only 5.3 YPP. They are limiting QB’s to just 5.9 yards per pass attempt which ranks them on the top 5 in the league. The average point total in the NFL this year is 47 which is down nearly a full FG from last season. These 2 teams know each other very well and over the last 9 meetings they have only averaged 41 total points. This one stays UNDER the total. |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a must win for Seattle who sits at 1-2 after blowing double digit leads in each of the last 2 weeks vs Tennessee & Minnesota. The Seattle offense has been rolling as they are averaging 7.4 YPP which is tops in the NFL this season. San Fran’s offense is heading in the opposite direction. After lighting up a bad Detroit defense for 8 YPP in their opener the Niners have averaged just 4.5 and 4.6 YPP their last 2 games vs Philly & Green Bay. The 49ers have been outgained by 1.5 YPP in each of their last 2 games and they were extremely lucky to win @ Philly and lucky to even have a chance vs Green Bay. The defense has been struggling as well allowing 6.0+ YPP in each of those games as well which isn’t ideal facing a red hot Seahawks offense. They are also really banged up in the defensive backfield as it looks like they will have only 4 healthy corners on the roster. One of those players is coming back from injury (Moseley) and two were not even on the active roster vs Green Bay. We expect Russell Wilson to have a huge day. Wilson has dominated San Francisco since taking over as Seattle’s starting QB in 2012. He is 15-4 SU vs the Niners in his career. The Hawks have also NEVER lost 3 games in a row since Wilson took over. They have lost 2 straight just 8 times in Wilson’s career and they are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS after those losses. The Niners, on the other hand, have been a terrible home favorite with an ATS record of just 5-20-1 ATS in that role since 2014. The better QB in a must win spot getting points is a nice situation. Seattle is the play. |
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10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 112 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -115 on Run Line over San Diego Padres, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET – The Padres got the upset win in extra innings yesterday but are just 2-12 last 14 games! San Diego is 3-9 last 12 times they were off a win. The Giants had won 9 of 10 games before yesterday's loss. San Francisco, with a chance to lock up the NL West Division on the final day of the season, will respond here. They will take advantage of facing Reiss Knehr. The Padres righty is winless in his 4 starts this season and has allowed 7 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in his last 3 starts. San Francisco starts Logan Webb here. The Giants are 20-5 in his starts this season including 11-0 at home where the righty is 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA on the year! The Giants had a 7-game winning streak before losing a tight game last night and 6 of their last 8 victories were wins by a multiple-run margin! Note that San Francisco's 106 wins this season have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin. The Padres 82 losses have included 56 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Giants are 71-27 in games against teams with a losing record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -220 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -115 price range by utilizing the run line. Take San Francisco Giants 1.5 on the run line. |
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Carolina vs Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Dallas is averaging 30 PPG and you might think this is a game they get shut down by a Carolina defense that ranks #2 in the NFL holding opponents to just 10 PPG. Forget about it. Dallas will put up plenty of points here. First of all the Panthers have face potentially the easy set of offenses in the NFL to date. Their games have come against the Jets with QB Wilson making the first start of his career, the Saints with QB Winston who didn’t play last season + a number of WR’s and offensive coaches out due to Covid, and the Texans with rookie QB Mills making his first start on a short week. Dallas put up 29 on a top notch Tampa defense and 41 last week on a Philly defense that, even after that game, has allowed just 4.7 YPP ranking them 7th in the NFL. The Carolina offense will have to keep up here. They haven’t had to do that yet this season after jumping out to leads and letting their defense dominate poor and inexperienced QB’s. Despite that they’ve still scored 26 & 24 points in their last 2 games so they are capable. The Cowboys rank 4th in the NFL in plays per game and Carolina is 6th so we look for a faster paced game with plenty of offensive snaps. This one goes OVER the total. |
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10-02-21 | Kansas v. Iowa State OVER 56.5 | Top | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
#135/136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 56.5 Points - Kansas vs. Iowa State, 7 PM ET - Kansas certainly won’t be confused with the Kansas City Chiefs offense, but they’ll score enough points here to help push this game OVER the number. The Jayhawks are averaging just 21PPG on the season, but they do average 5.8 yards per play (52nd) which is respectable. Kansas coach Leopold has won at every level and is known for his offensive schemes which produced 7.3 yards per play and 43.4PPG last year at Buffalo. The Cyclones come into this game off their second loss of the season and will make a statement here. ISU is averaging 6.1YPPL (35th) and 31.3PPG (46th) and has produced over 479 total yards in each of their last two games. They will have no problems scoring against the KU defense that has allowed 52, 45 and 49 points to three offenses (Duke, Baylor and Coastal) who are not as good as the Cyclones. Iowa State’s defense is over-rated based on our metrics after facing some poor offenses in Northern Iowa, Iowa and UNLV. Last year when these same two teams squared off they produced 74 total points. This one gets to the mid-60’s. Bet OVER |
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10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
#178 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -3.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Okie State has played the MUCH tougher schedule here and they are 4-0 on the season. 3 of their wins have come vs Tulsa (who played Ohio St to the wire on the road), @ Boise State, and last week at home vs KSU. We have been impressed with their progression the last few weeks. Starting QB Sanders missed the first game of the season, struggled a bit vs Tulsa and Boise, but hit his stride last week throwing for 344 yards at home in a 31-20 win over Kansas State. His top WR Martin returned after missing the last 2 games and had 9 catches for 100 yards. The OSU defense has been playing lights out allowing just 2.6 YPC and 4.5 YPP on the season. They have allowed just 123 yards rushing total in their last 2 games vs Boise & KSU (2 YPC). That will be a problem for a Baylor team that prefers to run the ball (41 rushing attempts per game). The Bears are undefeated, however their first 3 wins were vs Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Their win last week vs Iowa State at home was one of the more misleading finals of the season. ISU gained 480 yards on 6.6 YPP in the game. Baylor gained 282 total yards on 5.2 YPP. The Bears offense scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game on 206 total yards. After that, they totaled 66 yards on 30 plays for barely 2 YPP. The Bears didn’t have to show much offensively in their first 3 games vs terrible opponents and they surprises the Cyclones with some new looks, plays, and wrinkles on offense. Once the ISU defense settled in Baylor did almost nothing. Their only points after the first 3 possessions came on a 98 yard kickoff return and a short FG after a long punt return. The favorite has covered 15 of the last 21 meetings and the home team has covered 13 of the last 19. We like OSU at home. |
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10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
#106 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa -4.5 over Houston, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason the team that sits with a 1-3 record is favored over the team that has a 3-1 record. Tulsa is at home for this one and they’ve played a very tough schedule to date including games @ Ohio State and @ Oklahoma State. In their 28-23 loss @ Oklahoma State they outgained the Cowboys in that game plus held their own in the trenches limiting them to just 3.3 YPC on the ground. OSU had a 99 yard kickoff return for TD in that game which was the difference. When the Golden Hurricanes traveled to Ohio State they more than held their own vs the Buckeyes rolling up 501 total yards to 508 for the Bucks. That game was tight throughout despite the final margin. Tulsa trailed by just a TD @ Ohio State with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. Last Saturday Tulsa was back at home and topped Arkansas State 41-34. It could have been much worse as they held a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter but ASU scored 13 of the games final 16 points including a 98 yard kickoff return. The stats in the game were extremely lopsided with Tulsa gaining 663 yards to 359 for Arkansas State. Houston steps in with a 3-1 record but they’ve played an easy schedule compared to Tulsa. The Cougs have faced Grambling, Rice, Navy, and Texas Tech thus far. Take out the Grambling game and the 2 wins for Houston vs Rice & Navy were not all that impressive. Those 2 teams are 0-6 SU combined vs FBS teams this season and 5 of those losses were blowouts. The only one that was close was Houston’s 28-20 win over Navy last week. The one decent team the Cougars played, Texas Tech, rolled them by 17 points outgaining Houston by 125 yards. Despite the big difference in opposition this season, Tulsa has gained an average of 6.9 YPP and allowed 5.6 YPP for a differential of +1.3 YPP. Houston’s YPP differential is +0.6 YPP despite their easy slate thus far. These 2 most recently met here in 2019 and Houston topped Tulsa as a 7-point dog despite getting outgained by 150 yards. Some revenge is in order on Friday night. We like this Tulsa team and feel they are undervalued right now. Lay the points here. |
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10-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees -124 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the home team in this one – #966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -125 over Tampa Bay Rays, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – The Rays have nothing to play for here. The Yankees have everything to play for as they are still trying to lock up a wild card spot. New York is in a good spot but they still need another victory. Just because a team needs a win of course does not mean they get that win. But the fact is you have a very motivated Yankees team that has won 8 of 9 games against a Rays team that has lost 2 of 3 and has already locked up the #1 spot in the AL playoff seeding. New York starter Nestor Cortes has a 3.01 ERA this season as a starter and the Yankees are 10-3 in his starts including 5-1in his home starts. He was solid against the Rays in his lone starts against them this season. Shane McClanahan is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA against the Yankees this season that easily could be higher too as he has allowed 14 hits and walked 5 in those two starts and this was in only 9 and 1 / 3 innings! Look for the Yankees to jump on McClanahan again in this one plus get a strong start from Cortes. It will be tough for the Rays to be very focused at the plate in this one while the Yankees will be locked in and have scored 5 or more runs in 8 straight games! Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been held to scoring 3 runs or less in 3 of last 4 games. We have the slight starting pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge plus overall situational edge both rest squarely with the red hot home team in this one. We will grab the home team at a very fair small favorite price on the money line in this one and bet New York Yankees -125 |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals UNDER 46 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Jacksonville vs Cincinnati, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Cincinnati is 2-1 on the season and their defense is definitely flying under the radar. They rank 4th in the NFL in YPP allowed and 4th in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Bengals have allowed 46 offensive points in 3 games (minus opponents defensive or special teams scores) which is just 15.3 PPG. We expect them to limit a Jacksonville offense that is still working through their new system on that side of the ball. The Jags have scored just 6 offensive TD’s in 3 games and 3 of those came in their opener vs Houston. Last week the Jags vs Cards game totaled 51 points but 14 of those came on non-offensive TD’s so really just 36 points for the offenses. The week before vs Denver they totaled 36 points but that included a 102 yard kickoff return for Jacksonville so they scored just 29 offensive points combined. Both offenses rank 19th or lower in the league in YPP gained. They are ranked 25th (Bengals) and 31st (Jags) in 3rd down conversion percentage so keeping drives alive here will be tough. Cincy’s offense is slow paced (30th in the NFL) and they love to run the ball (almost 49% of the time – 4th in the NFL) which will eat clock. Jacksonville is faster paced yet they only run 61 plays per game which ranks them 22nd in the NFL. The projected score here is in the range of Cincinnati 27, Jacksonville 20 and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Take the UNDER on Thursday Night. |
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09-30-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
#915/916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET – The last time Nick Pivetta faced the Orioles was less than two weeks ago and he struggled badly. Pivetta allowed 7 hits in less than 4 innings versus Baltimore and was fortunate to get a key double play before he exited or the damage could have been much worse. Now he faces the Orioles again but this time at Baltimore where their .443 slugging percentage this season ranks 3rd in the AL. Look for the Orioles hitters to again get to Pivetta early and often in this one as they respond off a rare home shutout loss last night. Boston should also be hitting well in this game too. The Red Sox have won 7 of last 8 games against Orioles and have averaged scoring 7.8 runs a game during this stretch! Boston should have no trouble connecting against Baltimore starter Alexander Wells and behind him is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Wells is 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA in his 7 starts this season and allowed 5 earned runs in only 5 innings in his most recent start versus the Red Sox. Of his 7 starts this season, only 2 have been unders. Boston should crush the ball here but the Orioles also set up well to do much better at the plate than they did last night. This series has featured back to back unders so far but should finish with a bang. The five most recent meetings between these teams before this series saw the divisional foes combine to average a dozen runs per game in the 5 meetings. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 or 9.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Yankees and Blue Jays are involved in the wild card race with the Red Sox and Mariners and A's as 5 teams chasing just 2 spots in the American League! Suffice to say it is playoff pressure with this match-up but it is likely to be these starting pitchers wilting under the pressure. New York starter Jameson Taillon has struggled on the road this season. Taillon has an 8.21 ERA in his last 3 starts (2 on the road) and he has a 5.66 ERA in his 13 road starts this season. The over is 11-2 in those starts on the road! Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Blue Jays here and, though he has had some success against the Yankees this season, his recent struggles are troubling to say the least. Ryu has a 10.45 ERA in his last 3 starts and could not make it out of the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts. The over is 9-5 in Ryu's home starts and he has an unimpressive 4.92 ERA in those 14 starts. The last time he hosted the Yankees (in June) he gave up a pair of homers and had more walks than strikeouts. Yankees have won 6 straight games and averaged 6 runs per game. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 13 games and have won 8 of last 10 at home. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Top Play on 10* UNDER 51.5 - The action on this game currently see’s more tickets coming in on the Over and more money on Under. We’ll side with the money and BET UNDER. 3 of the last four meeting have stayed UNDER the number and the one game that did go Over this Total of 51.5 was last year and it took a late TD with under 2 minutes to play to get to 54 total points. In those three games that stayed below the number these two teams averaged 35PPG. The Eagles put up yards and points in the opener against a horrible Falcons defense then were limited to 328 total yards and 11-points last week by San Francisco. Dallas isn’t as good as the 49ers defensively but they aren’t as bad as the Falcons either. The Cowboys weakness defensively is against the pass (31st) but the Eagles can’t take advantage with the 22nd ranked passing O averaging just 219PYPG. On the flip side the Cowboys (6th) ranked passing attack will have problems moving the ball against an Eagles pass D ranked 3rd. Much like last weeks low scoring game against the Chargers the Cowboys can rely on their rushing attack which is 7th best in the NFL against a Philly D giving up 120RYPG which ranks 19th. Dallas rush D over-rated as TBay and LAC only attempted 33 combined total rushes against them. Eagles will rely on one of the best rushing attacks averaging over 162 rushing yds per game. Eagles on 9-3 Under streak their last 12 games overall, Cowboys on 4-1 Under run as a favorite. |
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09-27-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
#495/496 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Green Bay vs San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Niner offense averaged a ridiculous 8.0 YPP in their week 1 win over Detroit. Last week they played a defense with a pulse @ Philly and only put up 17 points on 4.5 YPP. Green Bay’s defense gave up 38 in week one @ New Orleans but that was quite deceiving as the Saints only had 322 total yards in that game. The Saints had two TD drives of less than 22 yards and averaged 1 point for every 8.4 yards gained which was beyond efficient. The league average for yards per point is usually around 15 which would have translated to 21 points for the Saints with their yardage numbers in that game. Last week they allowed 17 points vs Detroit and held the Lions scoreless in the 2nd half. We project GB’s defense to be very solid this year and SF will have problems on offense Sunday. On the other side of the ball, SF’s defense has been very good. They shut down Philly to just 11 points last week and Detroit had 17 points the week prior with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s with the Niners in prevent mode. The GB offense looked better in the 2nd half last week but again, that was vs Detroit who projects to have one of the worst defense in the NFL. Even with that, Green Bay is only averaging 4.8 YPP on the season ranking them 26th in the NFL. They struggled big time vs a very good Saints defense (3 points) and we have San Fran’s stop unit on par with New Orleans. Both of these teams are very slow when it comes to pace. Green Bay finished dead last in pace a year ago running one play 31 seconds. San Francisco was 26th in pace last season. This year they both rank below 22nd in pace. With SF favored in the 3-point range, the expected score is right around 27-24. We don’t see either teams getting to their projected scoring numbers. Take the UNDER here. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
#494 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +2 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is an absolute must win for Minnesota. They have played better than their 0-2 record as they really could easily be 2-0. They lost in OT @ Cincinnati when they fumbled getting into FG range for the winning points. Last week they played @ Arizona and missed what would have been the game winning FG as time expired. Now they get their home opener where they are an impressive 16-4 (80%) their last 20 as a home dog dating back to 2012. The Vikings got their rushing attack rolling last week with 177 yards on 6.6 YPC and they are facing a Seattle team that has allowed 162 YPG this year on the ground (31st). Minny RB Cook was banged up last week but all indications are he will play on Sunday. Seattle has a great home field advantage but laying points on the road had not been a money maker for this team. They are 1-0 this year in that role but just 5-14-2 ATS laying point on the road from 2016 – 2020. Seattle blew a lead at home vs Tennessee at home last week and lost in OT. The were outgained by 135 yards in that game. They’ve been outgained by 90 yards on the season thus far. Last year Minnesota was +6.5 @ Seattle and lost a tight game 27-26 but outgained the Hawks 449 to 314. We love this spot for the Vikings and expect them to win this game outright. We’ll take the points here. |
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09-26-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET – Yesterday's game was a low-scoring 2-1 Oakland win but this followed an O/U run of 8-0 in the meetings between these teams at Oakland this season. We look for that over trend to start up immediately again here based on this pitching match-up. The O/U is 13-7 in Jake Odorizzi's starts this season. He has a 4.70 ERA away from home and the last time he made a start in this ballpark he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings. The Astros right-hander's counterpart for this one is Paul Blackburn. The A's right-hander had a start he would rather forget (8 earned runs in 1 and 1 / 3 innings) in his only career start against the Astros. Also, Blackburn enters this outing struggling over his last 3 starts. Two of those 3 starts were at home and Blackburn allowed 8 runs (7 earned) in 6 and 2 / 3 innings in those two starts at Oakland Coliseum. The Astros will enjoy success at the plate after being shutdown yesterday. Houston had won 8 of 12 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game before being held to 1 run yesterday. Oakland, before the tight 2-1 win yesterday, had scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in last 11 games. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-25-21 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 6 straight games against right-handed starters. Philadelphia has also won 3 straight games when facing the Pirates and the combined score of those games is 35-16. Look for another dominating win here as Ranger Suarez gives the Phillies a big edge over Pittsburgh and starter William Crowe. Even though Crowe had success against the Phillies earlier this season that start was at home and he is now on the road for this one Crowe has a 6.44 ERA on the road this season and has an 8.25 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Suarez has been fantastic for the Phillies this season including a 1.92 ERA in his 10 starts! The Pirates are 14-32 against southpaw starters this season and 18-42 in day games this season! Philadelphia is 33-18 in day games this season. The Phillies won by a multiple-run margin yesterday and note that Philadelphia's 80 wins this season have included 50 by more than a 1-run margin. The Pirates 96 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 13 games over .500 in home games this season and Pittsburgh is 23-55 in road games this season and 29-60 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -130 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-25-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
#401/402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Rutgers vs Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is not going to play out like last years when these two teams combined for 90 points. Looking closer at that game, these two teams had 55 total points with five minutes to play before two late TD’s forced the game into overtime. They also had a 95-yards punt return for a TD and three touchdowns on big plays of 46 or more yards. We are betting this game plays out much differently and don’t see a high scoring affair. These two teams have been outstanding defensively this season with the Wolverines allowing 14, 10 and 10 points in three games this season. UM is 9th in points allowed per game, 26th in total yards allowed at 287YPG and 22nd in yards per play allowed at 4.4YPPL. Offensively the Wolverines rely on a rushing attack that is pounding out 350 rushing yards per game (1st) while scoring 47PPG. Those numbers are not sustainable and also come against a Western Michigan team that is 120th in yards allowed per game, Washington who is 42nd in YPG/allowed and Northern Illinois who ranks 103rd. So while UM is really good offensively their numbers are somewhat misleading. Rutgers has a defense allowing 261YPG which ranks 16th while allowing only 145 rushing yards per game which ranks 15th. The Knights give up just 11.3 points per game which is 8th best in the nation. Offensively the Knights have struggled though ranking 99th in yards gained per game while averaging just 3.6 yards per play (121st). Michigan is one of the slowest paced teams in college football and will dictate the tempo and pace here with their ground attack. Michigan has a much bigger opponent on deck in Wisconsin so look for them to call off the dogs late in this one. BET UNDER! |
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09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
#387 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Tigers. They are coming off a HUGE home win over SEC Mississippi State and the week prior to that they beat rival Arkansas State 55-50. Last week’s 31-29 win over MSU was very deceiving. We were on Memphis so we picked up a win but if you would have shown us the final stats before the game was played, we would not have been on the Tigers. Memphis was -14 first downs and -222 yards in that win over Mississippi State. They had a 94-yard punt return and 49-yard fumble return both for TD’s. If they take UTSA lightly after last week’s big win, they will lose here. They may lose even if they play well. UTSA is a very solid, veteran team. They come into this game with a 3-0 record including a win @ Illinois in their other road game this season. Say what you will about the Illini, but in their other 2 home games they beat Nebraska and nearly beat Maryland so that was a very good road win for UTSA who had 497 total yards of offense in that game. Last week they Road Runners topped Middle Tennessee State by 14 points but it should have been much worse as they won the yardage battle by +253. Their senior QB Harris is one of the better “unknown” signal callers in the country, just ask Illinois. We have an edge at that position as the Memphis QB is a freshman that’s played in 3 games in his career. Dating back to last season UTSA has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming in their bowl game 31-24 vs a very good Louisiana team that finished last year 10-1. We’re getting the better team, getting points, in a better situation. Take Texas San Antonio. |
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09-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees, Friday at 7:10 PM ET – Rivalry game and played with playoff intensity as each of these clubs is currently holding a wild card spot but nothing is secure just yet! Considering that factor as well as this pitching match-up, we should see a very tight low-scoring pitchers duel in this one. Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Yankees and is off a rare bad start which means you know he will be 100% focused on a bounce back effort here. Cole is 9-4 with a 2.95 ERA in his road starts this season. The O/U is 4-10 in those 14 outings away from Yankee Stadium this season. Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston here and he has been particularly strong at Fenway Park this season with a 6-3 record and a 2.91 ERA. Eovaldi enters this outing with a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. The under is perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts with the Yankees and he has compiled a 2.55 ERA in those outings. The under is a perfect 2-0 in Cole's last 2 starts versus Boston and he has totaled 19 strikeouts in the 11 innings over those 2 starts against the Red Sox. The Yankees are off an over but 6 of 8 games before that had stayed under the total. The under trend resumes here. Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9 that is posted at most books as of early morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia -4 over Wake Forest, Friday at 7 PM ET - We love this spot at home for UVA. They are off an embarrassing 59-39 loss @ North Carolina last Saturday. It was the Cavs first loss of the year. They are taking on a Wake team that is 3-0 but they’ve played all home games and faced a very easy schedule thus far. The Deacs topped an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Old Dominion) to start the season and then thumped a reeling Florida State team last week. While FSU isn’t very good – they lost at home the previous week to Jacksonville State – it was still a big win for WF vs a name program. The Wake defense has put up great numbers this year holding their 3 opponents to a combined 40 points but the offenses they’ve faced have been nothing close to what they’ll see on Saturday. Minus their FCS opponent, they have faced Old Dominion (122nd in total offense) and FSU (68th in total offense). Worse yet, those 2 teams aren’t adept at moving the ball through the air (ODU 118th in passing offense / FSU 84th in passing offense) and now they face a UVA team that leads the nation averaging 488 YPG through the air. The Cavs also rank 3rd in total offense and 11th in YPP offense. Wake’s defense takes a huge step up in competition on Saturday. UVA just saw one of the top offenses in the nation (UNC) last week and didn’t fare well but you can bet they’ll make adjustments this week and this will be a step down in competition for the Cavaliers. This is a game Virginia has been waiting for after losing 40-23 at Wake last year (Wake as a 2-point favorite). The yardage in the game was very close but the Cavs had 3 turnovers (0 for Wake), missed a FG, and were shut out on downs inside the WF 10-yard line. They had their chances to say the least. They haven’t been able to host WF since 2012 so it’s been almost a decade since they’ve had a shot at the Deacs here at home. Virginia has won 18 of their last 20 home games and only 3 of those 18 wins have come by less than a TD. Lay it. |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
#301/302 – ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Carolina vs Houston, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel this is a bad spot for Carolina on the road for the first time coming off home wins over the Jets & Saints but we’re not about to take Houston in this game with their situation at QB. The Under is the best play in this game. Rookie Davis Mills will start at QB for Houston with Tyrod Taylor going on injured reserve. Mills played the 2nd half last week and let the Texans to one TD @ Cleveland. He was just 8 of 18 through the air and while he was in the game Houston averaged just 4.2 YPP. While he will get to practice with the starters this week, it’s only for a few days on a short week so far from ideal for a rookie QB. He’s facing a Carolina defense that’s allowed 21 points this season and they lead the NFL allowing just 3.7 YPP. Last week vs the Saints the Panthers allowed a total of 128 yards! Houston will struggle offensively in this game. The Panthers haven’t exactly lit the world on fire offensively with 19 points vs the Jets and 26 vs the Saints. Houston’s defense did a decent job last week vs one of the top offenses in the NFL holding the Browns to 355 total yards. Both of these teams like to run the ball ranking in the top 6 in carries per game which will help eat this clock and shorten the game. We foresee Carolina getting ahead in this game and grinding out a win with Houston’s offense doing very little. Play the UNDER on Thursday Night. |
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09-23-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 8 Runs – Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 3:35 PM ET – Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Mariners in this one. The Seattle southpaw has been having a dreadful time on the road. From mid-August to now he has made 3 road starts and has been hammered in every single one. The cumulative stats from those outings are 14 earned runs on 18 hits and 7 walks in only 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work! Kikuchi's first start out of the All Star break was also on the road and he allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Though he has had some success against the A's this season, his current road struggles have been consistent and have been ugly. Look for him to get rocked in this outing. Oakland counters with Chris Bassitt here and this is going to likely be a tough outing for him. He took a line drive to the face when on the mound August 17th and suffered multiple facial fractures. This will be his first start after that incident and, mentally, that is a tough situation to simply immediately bounce back from. Also going against Bassitt here is the fact he has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts versus the Mariners this season. Seattle has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in the victories. The Mariners are 12-5-1 to the over in their last 18 games. That includes a recent stretch of unders but given this pitching match-up, the over trending is very likely to resume here. There is strong support for expecting each starter to be a bit "off" in this one and the hitters will take advantage! This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-22-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -140 on Run Line over New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 5 straight games against right-handed starters but Keegan Akin is a lefty so why would that matter? Here is the key point we are making: the last two lefties the Phillies faced were the crafty veteran Rich Hill and the very talented John Means of the Orioles. Keegan Akin does not fall into either of those two categories of southpaws! He is in his 2nd MLB season and has gone 2-10 with a 6.93 ERA in 23 games (16 starts).. In his 10 road starts this season Akin is 1-6 with an 8.64 ERA! The Orioles lefty is highly likely to struggle here and that means this game should be a blowout because the Baltimore bullpen is also one of the absolute worst in the majors this season. To stay in this game the Orioles would have to score plenty and, honestly, they will be lucky to score even a few in this one! Baltimore is up against a surging Zack Wheeler. The Phillies right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA this month and has registered 23 strikeouts in 17 and 2 / 3 innings during this stretch. Wheeler has a 2.04 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Orioles. More dominance expected here and he should get plenty of run support as Akin gets rocked again in this one. The Phillies won by just 1 run yesterday but note that Philadelphia's 77 wins this season have included 48 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 103 losses have included 83 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 10 games over .500 in home games this season and Baltimore is 28-73 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -300 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-21-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – We fell just short with this play Monday but coming right back with it here. Yesterday the Yankees jumped out to a 4-0 lead and held Texas scoreless in 8 of the 9 innings but one 3-run inning was the difference. The Yankees won 4-3 but failed to cover the run line. As we mentioned here yesterday about this series, the good news for Yankees fans is they are welcoming the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx. We look for New York to respond with not only wins but some big-margin victories in this series. Texas has lost 5 of 6 and the Rangers have been held to 3 or less runs in all 6 of those games! The Yankees got drilled Sunday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding that. Dane Dunning starts for Rangers here and he has struggled badly on the road this season and now makes his first ever start in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for young starters! Dunning has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Texas is 1-9 in those 10 starts! Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and the lefty has a 3.25 ERA in his 11 home starts this season and New York has won all but 4 of those starts. The Yankees are 7-4 in his home starts this season. The Yankees won by just 1 run yesterday but note that New York's 84 wins this season have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 95 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 54-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-53 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -240 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -125 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line |
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09-20-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Monday at 7:05 PM ET – After some struggles, the Yankees seemed to turn the corner with a 5-2 stretch over 7 games. That was before back to back losses to wrap up their series with Cleveland. The good news for the Yankees is they now welcome the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx and we look for New York to respond after the back to back losses. Texas has lost 4 of 5 and the Rangers have been held to 2 or less runs in all 5 of those games! The Yankees got drilled yesterday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding this. Rookie AJ Alexy starts for Rangers here and he just got used in a long relief role and got crushed so this takes the luster off his first two starts being successful. Look for a carry-over from the rough relief outing right into a tough outing in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for rookie starters! Yankees start Nestor Cortes and the lefty has a 2.70 ERA in his 11 starts this season and New York has won all but 3 of those starts! The Yankees are 4-1 in his home starts this season. The Yankees get back on track here and note that New York's 83 wins have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 94 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 53-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-52 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
#287 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +3.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We have some serious week 1 overreaction taking place here. Prior to last week Arizona was favored by -1.5 in this game and now that they destroyed Tennessee last week and Minnesota lost in OT @ Cincinnati, this line has crossed the key number of 3 and we’re getting the Vikings at +3.5. We’ll take it. Minnesota will bring their “A” game here after losing a tough one last week in OT. The Vikes outgained Cincy in the game and had the ball moving into FG territory in OT when RB Cook fumbled. Cincy then kicked the game winning FG 2 minutes later as time expired. Minny HC Zimmer has been fabulous as an underdog off a SU loss going 21-6-1 ATS their last 28 in that role. Arizona looked great last week vs a Tennessee team we had projected to regress big time this year. The Titans despite finishing with 11 wins in the regular season, had a point differential of just +52 which ranked them 7th in the AFC and 12th in the NFL. Over half of their wins last year (6) were by 3 points or less or in overtime. Tennessee was -13 YPG last season and right around dead even in their yards per play differential (+0.1 YPP differential). They weren’t nearly as good as their record last year and last week they showed that. 3 turnovers by Tennessee led directly to 14 points for Arizona including a 1-yard TD drive by the Cards after a Titan fumble. Arizona QB Murray played the game of his life vs a poor Tennessee defense that finished last year ranked 29th in total defense and 24th in scoring defense. We expect Murray to come back to earth this week vs what we project to be a very solid Minnesota defense. Look for the Vikings to get the running game rolling this week behind Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s rush defense was near the bottom of the NFL last year but Tennessee had to abandoned their running game pretty quickly last week after getting down big early. We like the coaching edge with Zimmer as well in this game as Arizona coach Kingsbury is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since taking over in Arizona. Take the points. |
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09-19-21 | Braves v. Giants -116 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the home team in this one – #962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -120 over Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET – The Braves have lost 14 of 22 games including 4 straight defeats. The Giants have won 13 of their last 16 games and already took the first two games of this 3-game set. Atlanta is looking to avoid the sweep here but that kind of wagering angle tends to be overplayed. The fact is simply that the Giants are the much hotter team plus have home field edge here. San Francisco is 49-25 at home this season. The Braves are 28-38 this season against teams with a winning record. Atlanta has fared okay against divisional foes and against the NL Central Division teams but against the NL West as well as the AL teams, the Braves are a combined 14-28 this year! San Francisco is 38-17 in day games and 21-10 against NL East teams this season. Braves are only 6-6 in Fried road starts this season though he has a respectable 3.90 ERA. DeSclafani has been the hotter pitcher of late with a 2.12 ERA his last 3 starts, all Giants wins, and San Francisco is 9-3 in his home starts this season. The Giants also have the better bullpen in this match-up. We have the slight starting pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge plus bullpen edge and overall situational edge both rest squarely with the red hot home team over the slumping road team in this one. We will grab the home team at a very fair small favorite price on the money line in this one and bet San Francisco Giants -120 |
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09-18-21 | Kent State v. Iowa UNDER 56.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
#147/148 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 56.5 Points – Kent State vs Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Our number has this total set at 51 so definitely value on the Under. Iowa defense is outstanding. They’ve allowed 23 points total this season and that was vs Indiana & Iowa State, two very solid Power 5 offensive teams. Last week the Hawkeyes held what we consider one of the better offensive teams in college football, Iowa State, to just 17 points in 4.7 YPP. Dating back to last year over their last 8 games, the Hawkeye defense has allowed just 13 PPG on 4.4 YPP. In their last 5 games vs the MAC conference, the Iowa defense has allowed an average of 10 PPG. Kent is off a high scoring win vs FCS VMI, however their lone game vs a Power 5 team this year they scored 10 points vs Texas A&M. Kent also loves to run the ball which eats clock. They ran it 45 times vs A&M and last year they finished 3rd nationally with 50 rush attempts per game. Here’s the problem. It’s really tough to run on Iowa. They have allowed 77 and 87 yards rushing the first two games and those, as we mentioned, we vs solid Power 5 offensive teams. Kent will have a tough time running the ball here. Iowa is a slow paced team. They prefer taking their time in the huddle which they will continue here. Their offense has been fairly pedestrian this year. They’ve put up only 476 total yards in 2 games. They have scored 61 total points but 3 of their TD’s have come from the defense and they’ve only had 4 TD’s this year from their offense. Since the start of last season Iowa has had a grand total of ONE game where they totaled more than 56 points. We anticipate Iowa getting ahead here and then slowing way down offensively to put it away in the 2nd half. That means Kent won’t have many chances and scoring vs this defense will be very tough when the do. Even if Iowa scores 40, which we don’t think they will, Kent would need to get to 17 to push this over the total. We look for a 35-14 type score keeping this UNDER the total. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - After finishing with a solid 6-2 record but we felt they were due for a regression this year. The benefitted from a +8 turnover margin last year, they were outgained on the year despite their winning record, beat only 1 team that ended last year with a winning record, and their QB isn’t anywhere near 100%. Michael Penix is just 8 months removed from a 2nd ACL tear on the same knee. Our word from IU is that he is probably only 80% at best. You can see it in his play. His legs were a big part of his success at QB and he isn’t comfortable running yet this season. He’s very uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, which is understandable, but that does not lead to success throwing the ball. He’s barely averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means IU has become a dink and dunk offense. Their running game has been poor averaging 2.5 YPC vs Iowa and 3.6 YPC vs a bad Idaho team. That means in order to beat Cincy, most likely Penix will need a huge game and we just don’t see it. The Bearcats defensive front is every bit as good as Iowa’s who put constant pressure on Penix and held the Hoosiers to just 6 points. They bounced back after that loss and beat Idaho but not nearly as impressive as the score indicated. IU averaged just 4.8 YPP vs the Vandals and had 2 special teams TD’s in the game. Cincy was one of the best teams in the nation last year going 9-1 with their only loss coming by 3-points vs Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They return many key players from a great defense that allowed 16 PPG and just 4.6 YPP. They also bring back one of the better QB’s in the country as Desmond Ridder threw for 2,300 yards, 19 TD’s and rushed for almost 800 more. The Bearcats have won their first two games by a combined score of 91-21. That includes a 49-14 win over Miami Oh in week one and the Redhawks turned around and nearly won at Minnesota the following week showing how impressive that Cincinnati win was. We’re laying points on the road here but Cincinnati is the much better overall team at this time. Once Penix gets back to 100%, the Hoosiers will be much better but he’s nowhere near that right now. Lay it. |