Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois OVER 60.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -114 | 55 h 48 m | Show |
#107/108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60.5 Points – Maryland vs Illinois, Friday at 9 PM ET - This total opened at just 58.5 which was way too low in our opinion and it has since jumped up to 60.5. Our power rated total for this one is set at 64 to still value on the OVER in our opinion. The Maryland offense has been great thus far putting up 92 points in 2 games to go along with almost 1,100 yards on 6.6 YPP. One of those games was vs a very good West Virginia defense that ranked 5th in college football in total defense last season. The Terps lit them up for 30 points on 496 total yards. They actually should have scored more than 30 points as Maryland missed a FG, was shut out on downs in WVU territory, and ended the game on the WVU 13-yard line running out the clock. The Terps are averaging 82 plays per game as their fast paced offense is clicking right now to say the least. The Illini pass defense has been terrible so this is a bad match up. Maryland QB Tagovailoa has already thrown for over 600 yards, completed 76% of his passes, and 6 TD’s. Not to mention he’s a running threat as well. The Illini pass defense has allowed their last 2 opponents starting QB’s (UTSA & UVA) complete 46 of their 68 pass attempts (68%) for 685 yards and 6 TD’s. Getting no pressure up front hasn’t helped as Illinois has 1 sack in their last 2 games combined. They’ve allowed 37 & 42 points in those 2 games. Offensively the Illini get a big boost here with starting QB Peters back under center after missing most of the Nebraska game and each of the last 2 games. He gives them a much better passing attack and makes this team tougher to defend. The Illini scored 30 points in each of their first 2 games but just 14 last week @ UVA. They had many more opportunities to put points on the board throwing an interception in Virginia territory and getting shut out on downs twice on the Cavs side of the field. Illinois has been using a fast paced offense as well averaging 75 plays per game so both teams prefer up tempo. Maryland shut out an FCS team last week but in their lone FBS game they gave up 24 points to West Virginia and the game had 41 points at halftime (21-20 WVU lead). With perfect weather (temps in the 70’s and light winds at game time) and a lot of offensive snaps expected, we think this one is high scoring. The projected score based on the spread is Maryland 34 – Illinois 26. We like both teams to eclipse their projected point total and this one goes OVER. |
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09-17-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Minnesota Twins, Friday at 7:07 PM ET – Hyun-Jin Ryu is off a poor start for the Blue Jays but he had been pitching very well. Ryu had a bad start at Baltimore but before that he had only one truly rough outing the last 5. In the other 4 of the 5 outings, Ryu allowed just 14 hits in 25 innings. Look for him to prove to be tough on a Twins team that has lost 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of only 3.8 runs in last 10 games. In fact, removing two high-scoring wins from the equation, Minnesota averaged just 2.9 runs in the other 8 games. Look for the red hot Blue Jays to roll in this game. Toronto is on a 13-2 run and has scored an average of 8 runs per game during this stretch. The Jays face Twins starter Michael Pineda in this one. The right-hander has a 12.34 ERA in last 3 starts against Toronto and allowed 7 homers in those 3 outings. Pineda enters this start off a good outing versus the Royals but had a 5.80 ERA in his 9 prior starts. The Blue Jays stay hot here and note that Toronto's 82 wins have included 68 by more than a 1-run margin! The Twins 83 losses have included 64 by more than a 1-run margin. Also, the Blue Jays are 61-44 versus right-handers and Minnesota is 16-33 versus southpaws this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays hot streak is likely to continue this evening. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a "pick" money (-110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 40.5 Points – NY Giants vs Washington, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 43 which is right where we had it and it has been pushed down to 40.5 so now we’ll jump on the OVER. While this has been a low scoring NFC East series, this total has been adjusted too low. With the total currently set at 40.5 points, this is the 2nd lowest total in the last 23 meetings between these 2 teams. We understand the move down as Washington QB Fitzpatrick was injured and back up Heinicke will be starting here. These teams scored 13 and 16 points last week as well which is the most recent thing bettors have seen. However, neither team was very good defensively last week and we expect both offenses to look much better in week 2. The Washington defense was touted as being one of the best in the NFL this year but they struggled allowing 424 yards to a Charger team that sat many of their starters during the pre-season including QB Herbert. LA scored 20 points but it should have been more as they settled for FG’s on 2 drives deep into Washington territory, Herbert fumbled through the endzone going in to score, and he threw an interception at the Washington 4-yard line. The NYG defense allowed a fairly pedestrian Denver offense (28th in scoring last year / 26th in YPP offense) to put up 27 points on 6.4 YPP. The NYG offense has a lot of weapons at RB & WR and we expect them to play much better this week with a game under their belts. Heinicke was OK last week coming into the game for an injured Fitzgerald but now with a full week of practice as the starter, we also expect Washington to play better on that side of the ball. Remember Heinicke did start last year’s playoff game and threw for over 300 yards and put up 23 points vs one of the best defenses in the league. The average points scored in an NFL game last year was 49.6 and this year after one week it’s 47.8. This one is a full TD+ below those numbers. We like both teams to get to at least 20 points here and that gets this one OVER the total. |
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09-16-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 5:05 PM ET – Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Orioles had their best starter, John Means, on the mound. The Yankees have now won 4 of 5 games and had scored 6 or more runs in 4 straight games prior to yesterday's 4-3 win. On Thursday, the Orioles bullpen is more likely to be exposed as Chris Ellis gets the start here. Yes he was solid against the Yankees when he faced them two weeks ago but they'll be better in the rematch. Also, he has averaged less than 5 innings in his 4 starts this season. The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and he is off a rough road outing. Also, at Baltimore this season Montgomery has allowed 7 earned runs on 12 hits in only 8 innings of work. Ellis has walked 7 in 10 innings over his last two starts and we are expecting plenty of base runners for both clubs in this one. Prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss, the Orioles had allowed an average of 9.7 runs per game over their past 7 games. The over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games against a right-handed starter. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-15-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +110 on Run Line over Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 3:07 PM ET – Tampa Bay got the win yesterday but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games overall and 4 of 5 road games. Toronto had been red hot before yesterday's loss. The Blue Jays had won 15 of 17 games before the loss yesterday. 67 of Toronto's 81 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. With the pitching edge here, look for another blowout win for Toronto as they bounce back from yesterday's defeat. Robbie Ray gets the call for the Jays. He has held the Rays to a total of just 3 earned runs on 11 hits while striking out 24 over 21 innings in his last 3 starts against them. All of those were within the past 4 months by the way. The point is that Robbie Ray has fared well in the current season versus the Rays. The Tampa Bay starter in this one is Michael Wacha and he has pitched a little better of late but he did not face a team that is hot-hitting right now like the Blue Jays are. Toronto has averaged 8 runs a game in the 15 victories during their 15-3 run. Wacha has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season as a starter with a 1-3 record away from home. Toronto is 6-1 last 7 times when off a loss. Tampa Bay scoring an average of 3.7 runs last 6 games. Toronto scored 5 or more runs in 12 of last 14 games. Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays bounce back is likely this afternoon. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a plus money (+110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-14-21 | Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
#931/932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET – Low total considering the way these two teams have been swinging the bats and the fact that Freddy Peralta has not been the same since he returned from injury. Peralta has been a little "off" and has not lasted very long in his two starts since he returned to the rotation. The O/U is 5-0-1 in Tigers last 6 home games. Detroit has scored an average of 7 runs a game in their last 5 games at Comerica Park. Wily Peralta starts for the Tigers in this one. Peralta has a low ERA last 3 starts but a 1.50 WHIP as he has not been overly sharp and has been a bit fortunate in terms of earned runs allowed. Now the Detroit right-hander faces a surging Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers have won 5 straight games and 11 of 14 thanks in part to averaging 6 runs per game in those 11 victories. In the current 5-game run Milwaukee has averaged 7.6 runs per game. The O/U on a 5-2 surge in last 7 games and the over trend should continue in this match-up per the above key factors. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-13-21 | Cardinals v. Mets +104 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the home team in this one – #954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets +105 over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:10 PM ET – Adam Wainwright is having a respectable season for the Cardinals but this is still a pitcher who has struggled more on the road than at home. Looking at the last 4 full seasons prior to this year - not including the very short 2020 MLB season - Wainwright had an ERA of a full 3 to 4 runs higher on the road than at home in 3 of the 4 seasons! Now he takes on a Mets team that has been making a late-season push for a playoff berth and has a solid home record this season. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are a below .500 team in road games this season and likely to struggle with Rich Hill. The veteran southpaw has been in top form of late with a total of only 3 earned runs allowed in 17 innings over his last 3 starts. He should get plenty of run support here. The red hot Mets lineup has led the way to producing 7 or more runs in 3 straight games and an average of 6 runs per game last 11 games. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been held to 2 or less runs in 7 of last 11 games! We have the pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge and situational edge both rest squarely with the home team in this one. We will grab the home team near an even money price on the money line in this one and bet New York Mets +105 |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 0 m | Show |
#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46.5 Points – Chicago vs LA Rams, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These 2 teams have met 3 times in the last 3 seasons and each game has been a grinder to say the least. All 3 have gone UNDER the total by a combined 56 points! The average total points scored in those 3 games has been just 26. That’s it. We don’t see anything changing this year. We look for Chicago’s offense to struggle vs a Ram defense that will be among the best in the NFL. LA allowed the fewest YPG last season (292) along with the lowest YPP mark (4.7). Chicago will be led at QB by Andy Dalton which doesn’t strike fear in any defense, especially one that sit a top the NFL. The Bears starting offense didn’t show us anything to be positive about in the pre-season. They were on the field for 8 total series, had only 4 first downs, 144 total yards and tallied just 6 points. The Bears will struggle on offense. Chicago’s strength is their defense as well. They have finished in the top 10 in total defense for 4 straight years. The Rams added QB Stafford but let’s not forget they finished 22nd last year in scoring (23 PPG) and 19th in YPP. While he might be an upgrade, we don’t expect this offense to elevate all the much is 2021. The Rams have hit the UNDER in 14 of their last 17 home games. They have also cashed the UNDER in 20 of the last 26 games they’ve been tabbed a favorite. The Bears are 13-5 to the UNDER their last 18 as a road dog. The history says low scoring and we agree. This one stays UNDER the total. |
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09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
#474 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Patriots will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL. It’s actually somewhat amazing they finished with a respectable 7-9 record as we’d argue the Covid situation affected this team more than any other. They had more opt outs on the season than every other team and a number of players that remained were hit hard including QB Newton who was never the same after contracted Covid. Newton is now gone and Belichick is going with rookie QB Jones from Alabama as the starter. It he simply manages the game and doesn’t make mistakes this team will be very solid. They spent more in free agency in the off season than any other team and they did so on very solid players as they always do. The New England defense will be one of the best in the NFL and facing a banged up Miami OLine. Fins starting LT Jackson is on the Covid list and may not play leaving a rookie or a lineman they signed 2 weeks ago as the starter. Pats are 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home vs Miami including 21-11 win here last year and outgained the Dolphins by 1.1 YPP in that game. New England was a 6.5 point favorite in that game and now they are laying 3 despite being vastly improved from a year ago. Miami, because they made the playoffs, we feel is a bit overvalued as they were outgained by 0.6 YPP by their opponents. Tua was a disaster last year (44.8 QBR – 26th in the NFL) and in his lone start vs Belichick’s depleted defense he threw for just 145 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 pick. We look for him to struggle again on Sunday. The host has covered 16 of the last 21 in this AFC East rivalry and we have the Patriots winning by more than a FG here. |
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09-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 22-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – Does not matter who pitches here really. The Blue Jays are red hot at the plate. The Orioles have also been swinging the bats quite well and are known for hitting better when at home and also the Baltimore bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors this season. So probably Zac Lowther gets the start but Mike Baumann and Alexander Wells could also see action here. What we do know is that Lowther would face a much tougher task than he did in his most recent start as that was against the Royals. Also, Lowther has a 6.91 ERA in the majors this season and had a 6.53 ERA at the AAA level of the minors this season too. Baumann also faced the Royals and that is his only MLB appearance and, again, much tougher test here. Wells has a 7.15 ERA at the MLB level this season and has been hit very hard. So look for Lowther to start but, again, with these Orioles it just does not matter. The Blue Jays are expected to start Steven Matz and he has good recent numbers but Baltimore has given some trouble. Against the Orioles this season he has a 5.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in two appearances. Orioles are averaging 5.5 runs scored last 8 home games. Blue Jays during their current 10-1 run, have averaged 8.1 runs scored per victory! This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
#377 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +7 over Michigan, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a pure value play on Washington. This line prior to last week’s games was Michigan -1 or -1.5. Now because Michigan beat Western Michigan handily and Washington was upset by an FCS team, this number moved through -3, -4, and -6 (three key numbers) and onto another key number -7. That’s simply too much of an overreaction after one week. Washington look poor last week no way around that. They turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t create a single turnover. The Huskies tallied just 291 total yards in their 13-7 loss vs Montana. UW had 11 more first downs, won the overall yardage & time of possession battle and the defense held the Grizzlies to 3.4 yards per play. They were flat and turnovers (-3) decided the game. We expect Washington to rally big time this week as they are now backed into a corner so to speak off that loss. The defense has a chance to be elite. Michigan ran the ball at will last week vs a small MAC defensive front but that won’t happen this week. Wolverine starting QB McNamara only completed 9 passes and didn’t have to do much to get this win. He’s still fairly inexperienced and will have to do much more here to get this win vs a big step up in competition. That was made much more difficult with Michigan WR Bell (top offensive player on the team) was injured last week and is now out for the season. The Wolverine defense was OK last week but WMU did get into Michigan territory 6 times and came away with only 14 points. Washington has not been an underdog of 7 or more points since 2016. This team had an energetic week of practice after their upset loss and they will be ready here. This one will be close. Take the points. |
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09-11-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -130 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET – The Giants are rolling once again. With yesterday's 6-1 win here over the Cubs, San Francisco has won 7 of last 8 games. Also, all 5 wins in their current 5-game winning streak have come by at least a 2-run margin. The Cubs start Zach Davies here. The right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in last 2 home starts. Davies is 6-10 on the season and has a 5.58 ERA in his home starts this year. Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants and is a fantastic 13-5 on the season including 7-2 in road starts. Gausman has a 1.95 ERA on the road this season! Gausman allowed zero earned runs and struck out 10 in his lone start versus Chicago this season. Davies got hit very hard and was unable to complete 5 innings in his lone start versus the Giants this season. San Francisco is set up well for a big road blowout win here and Gausman should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in an reasonable money (-130) price range on the run line. Take San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-10-21 | Brewers -140 v. Indians | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the visitors in this one – #925 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -145 over Cleveland Indians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET – The Brewers were off yesterday. The Indians will be playing for the 11th straight day. Cleveland got the win yesterday by a 4-1 count over the Twins but this followed 3 straight losses and defeats in 5 of the last 6. In those 5 losses the Indians scored an average of only 2 runs per game. The Brewers enter this game with the best road record in baseball at 46-24 on the season. Cleveland is an ugly 24-44 in games against teams with a winning record this season! The Brewers have won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs in the 8 victories. The Indians are expected to start Eli Morgan here and are 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA in his home starts this season. The Brewers are expected to start Adrian Houser here and are 8-3 in his road starts this season. Overall on the year Houser has a 3.54 ERA and he enters this start with a 2.60 ERA last 3 starts. Houser has allowed only 8 hits in 14 innings over his last two starts. Cleveland has lost 3 straight and 5 of the last 6 when facing right-handed starters. We have the big pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge and situational edge both squarely with the visitors in this one. We will grab the road team as a favorite that is in a reasonable price range on the money line in this one and bet Milwaukee Brewers -145 |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -8 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 4 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -8 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - This spread opened -6.5 over the summer and has pushed through the key number of -7 with no buyback whatsoever. That speaks volumes. Our power rating on this is closer to -10 so we still think there is value with the Bucs. We expect Dallas to start the season slow on both sides of the ball. Offensively QB Prescott will be taking his first live snaps in almost a year as he was injured last October and hasn’t played since. Defensively the Cowboys were poor last year ranking 23rd in both YPG & YPP allowed. Now they are learning a different system under new DC Quinn and it will take them some time to get acclimated. Tampa is the opposite. They return all 22 starters which is extremely rare in the NFL and we look for them to be clicking on all cylinders right away. Last season the Bucs had to find their way so to speak with new QB Brady but they improved greatly as the season went on. Tampa scored 25 or more points in just 6 of their first 12 games and then put up 26+ in their final 8 games averaging 34 PPG during that stretch (including playoffs). WR Mike Evans was recently quoted as saying the TB offense is “miles” ahead of where it was last year at this time. We expect the Bucs defense to be one of the tops in the league again in 2021. They were #1 vs the run last year allowing just 81 YPG. They should be able to take away the Dallas rushing attack with the Cowboys top run blocker and top overall OL Martin out for this one due to Covid. That means Prescott will need a huge game in order for the Boys to stay in this one and we just don’t see that happening. Too much time away from full speed action for him just to turn it on and be at the top of his game. He hasn’t been able to work with his receivers vs real defensive bullets and his top WR Lamb has been out for a few weeks with Covid and just returned. Tampa wins this one by double digits. |
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09-09-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets -1.5 -100 on Run Line over Miami Marlins, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET – The Marlins got the win in extra innings yesterday but that was with their top pitcher on the mound. Now Jesus Luzardo gets the call. The Miami southpaw is 4-6 with a 6.53 ERA and his repertoire of pitches pales in comparison to that of the stuff yesterday's starter, Sandy Alcantara, has. Luzardo has been charged with 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 10 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts versus NL East opponents and both of those starts were at home just like this one is against another divisional foe. The Marlins had lost 13 of 19 before coming up with the tight win in 10 innings yesterday. The Mets had won 8 of 10 games prior to yesterday's loss. Look for Marcus Stroman to help lead the Mets to victory here. The New York right-hander has a 2.93 ERA on the season and New York is 3-0 in his last 3 starts. He has a 2.84 ERA this season in starts versus the Marlins. 9 of the Mets last 10 wins have come by a margin of 2+ runs and our computer math model for this game is strongly favoring a big win for the Mets as Stroman comes up with a gem and the Mets bats (6.6 runs per game in that 8-2 run) bounce back from yesterday's loss. New York is set up well for a big road blowout win here and Stroman should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in an even money (-100) price range on the run line. Take New York Mets -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-08-21 | Tigers v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 6:35 PM ET – Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the teams combined for 18 hits. The day before the teams combined for 19 hits. Based on Wednesday's pitching match-up, look for this game to get past the 20-mark in hits and we should see plenty of runs as a result. There is rain expected in Pittsburgh today but it should be confined to the late morning and early afternoon hours so there should be no weather concerns for this game. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a 6-1 run in Tigers games and a 6-0 run in Pirates games. Detroit starts Matt Manning in this one and he was hammered for 8 earned runs in 3 and 2 / 3 innings in most recent start and that was at home. Now he is on the road where he is 1-4 with an 8.16 ERA this season. Pittsburgh starts Mitch Keller in this one. Keller is off a strong road outing but allowed 7 earned runs in 5 and 1 / 3 innings in prior start and that was at home. He has struggled at home this season with a 2-7 record and 8.31 ERA and the over is 8-3 in his 11 home starts on the year. Manning getting hit at a .305 clip on the season and Keller getting hit at a .310 clip on the season. Two very hittable pitchers and you have two teams that have been swinging the bats well over the past week. Look for the over trending to resume here as neither one of these teams is known for strength in terms of their relievers either. The Detroit bullpen has a 5.54 ERA on the road this season. The Pirates bullpen ranks near the bottom of the National League this season for ERA. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-07-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET – Rays 11, Sox 10. That was the final score in extra innings yesterday in a game that was 9-9 after 9 and this continued a season-long trend when these teams are matched up. The over is 11-5 in their meetings including 6-1 in games played at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Even though Eduardo Rodriguez just had a quality start at Tampa Bay, the Rays have otherwise been a red hot team and Rodriguez has a 5.69 ERA in home starts this season! The Red Sox lefty gave up 5 earned runs in 3 and 2 / 3 innings in most recent start at Fenway. With yesterday's win, Tampa Bay improved to 23-7 last 30 games and have scored, incredibly, an average of 7 runs per game during this stretch! The Red Sox are known for being one of the top hitting teams in baseball when at home and they have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 8 as a host. Drew Rasmussen starts for the Rays here and has transitioned well from the bullpen. He has posted solid numbers though he averages only 3 and 2 / 3 innings per start. However, this will be the 3rd time he has faced the Red Sox in a span of 4 weeks and it is going to catch up with him here. The way Boston has been hitting when at Fenway Park is going to flip the script against Rasmussen this time around. The righty has a 4.72 ERA in road outings in his young career. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-06-21 | Tigers v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
#923/924 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 1:35 PM ET – The Tigers are off of a win in a game at Cincinnati that was a rare pitchers duel. Detroit entered that game against the Reds on a streak of 5 straight overs and allowing an average of 7 runs per game. The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in 5 straight games and have averaged scoring 7.4 runs during this stretch. If each team gets to at least 4 runs we can not lose this play as that would mean at least reaching a total of 9. That being said, look for the Pirates to do their fair share of the work at the plate in this one too. Pittsburgh has plenty of confidence at the plate as they just wrapped up a high-scoring series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. The Pirates do tend to hit better at home than on the road and that has held true again this season. Pittsburgh is off an 11-8 loss at Chicago yesterday and the over is now a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games. The Pirates have scored at least 5 runs in 4 straight games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Pittsburgh has allowed at least 6 runs in 5 straight games and has allowed an average of 7 runs during this stretch. Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers and he has a 7.20 ERA in his last two starts and allowed multiple homers in each game. Bryce Wilson starts for the Pirates and he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 outings. In those games he compiled an 8.00 ERA and gave up multiple homers in each outing. Look for more of the same here. Skubal has struggled on the road since he came into the bigs. The lefty went 0-3 with 6.86 ERA in road starts last season and his ERA (4.96) this season is more than a full run higher on the road compared to at home. The Detroit bullpen has a 5.60 ERA on the road this season. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State OVER 55.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* OVER 55.5 Notre Dame @ Florida State, Sunday - Florida State 17 starters back, 10 on offense, 7 on defense. Notre Dame just 9 starters back, 3 on offense, 6 on defense but the Irish did land a solid QB transfer in Jack Coan from Wisconsin. Coan threw for over 2700 yards with 18 TD’s and 5 INT’s in 2019. Notre Dame has a rebuilt O-line BUT they bring back RB Williams who rushed for over 1100 yards a year ago. FSU is in year two of Mike Norvell’s rebuild and coming off a 3-6 SU season. Norvell brought his high-octane offense from Memphis so we know the Noles will want to play fast. They were 21st in plays run per game last season. The QB situation is up in the air with returner Jordan Travis or UCF transfer McKenzie Milton, but both have been solid this spring. The Irish beat FSU last year 42-26 which went well over the total of 53.5. Notre Dame gouged the Noles with 353 rushing yards and over 554 total yards. Florida States defense was one of the worst in the ACC last year and overall as they gave up over 37PPG which ranked 111th. Against quality teams such as ND the Noles gave up 52 to Miami, 42 ND, 28 UNC, 48 Louisville, 41 to Pitt and 38 to NC State. In last year’s meeting with the Golden Domers the Seminoles did put up over 400 yards of offense so we know they’re capable of trading point here. FSU closed the year on a 6-2 Over run which continues into this season. Notre Dame had 6 straight games of 31+ points to end the season before they ran into a pair of the best defenses in college football last season in Clemson and Alabama. Big rebound here in their season opener for the Irish offense. BET OVER! |
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09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -120 on Run Line over St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET – Jon Lester is off a good start at Cincinnati but quality outings certainly have been the exception rather than the norm for the veteran lefty this season. Lester, in his other recent starts, has had to work out of a lot of jams. The fact is he is very hittable and the lefty is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP on the road this season. The Brewers counter with Corbin Burnes and he has been fantastic this season. The Brewers are a perfect 8-0 in his last 8 starts and 7 of those 8 wins were by 2+ runs! The Cardinals are off a shutout loss in yesterday's match-up and have now lost 8 of last 11 games against right-handed starters. St Louis is very likely to struggle again here as Burnes has held his opponent to just 1 earned run or less in 9 of last 11 starts! Milwaukee is 37-18 in day games this season. Burnes has faced the Cardinals 3 times this season and has allowed a total of just 1 earned run in 17 innings versus St Louis! The Brewers just faced Lester about two weeks ago and the southpaw allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 4 and 1 / 3 innings and he did not record a single strikeout. 65 of the Brewers 83 victories have been by 2+ runs this season while 49 of the Cardinals 65 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. Milwaukee is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Burnes should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very reasonable -120 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State +17 over Washington State, Saturday at 11 PM ET - We expect USU to be drastically improved this year. This team was a train wreck last year and it was mainly due their leadership at the top. Former HC Gary Andersen was terrible. He quit at Wisconsin to take the Oregon State job. He then quit partway through the season on OSU and ended up back at Utah State where he was before he took the Badger job. USU was a rudderless ship last year and the players tanked the season to say the least. The players were so distraught they opted to not even play their final game of the season. They have since hired former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who was extremely successfully at ASU with a 51-37 record including 6 bowl appearances. He brought a few players with him from Arkie State including his starting QB Bonner who along with last year’s USU starter Peasley gives the Aggies a decent QB room. Word from Logan, Utah is the players love their new coach and have an entirely different attitude entering this season. They are experienced with 19 starters back and Anderson brought in a number of key Power 5 transfers from programs like Michigan, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Kansas who will contribute. This is a play against WSU as well. It’s really tough to lay 17 points with a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last few seasons. The Cougs allowed 38 PPG last season (1-3 overall record) and 32 PPG in 2019. They allowed 450+ YPG in both of those seasons. 2nd year head coach Rolovich came from Hawaii and he likes to run an up tempo offense trying to outscore opponents but last year they averaged just 27 PPG. Utah State should be able to put points on the board in this game and Washington State will have a tough time running away with this. Take the big points with USU. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
#153 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +3.5 over Northwestern, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as a small favorite in this game so we feel the value is on Sparty. They had a rough season last year with a 2-5 record, however it was their first year under new HC Tucker and we expect some solid improvement with a full year in both the offensive and defensive system. They return almost all of their key offensive players including an OLine that has combined to make 147 career starts which is the 4th most nationally. MSU upgrades at QB where they struggled greatly last year by adding Temple transfer Anthony Russo who had over 6,000 yards passing and 44 TD’s in his Temple career. The Spartans running game was poor last year but that should also improve greatly with a steady offensive line and Wake Forest transfer Walker starting at RB. Northwestern lost as much experience as any team in the country. They surprised many by winning the Big 10 West last year but bring back only 8 starters. The Cats lost their starting QB, most of their offensive line, and their top 4 pass catchers. Defensively they lost many of their key contributors including their top corner (to the NFL), top 2 pass rushers, and top 2 LB’s. Hunter Johnson was named the starting QB of the inexperienced offense and that’s not a good thing for NW. He was handed the job in 2019 and proceeded to complete just 46% of his passes, threw just 1 TD, and led an offense that averaged 14 PPG in his 6 starts. Their only win with Johnson at the helm was vs UNLV and he battled again for the job last year and did not play a single down during the season. Now he’s back as the starter. Not good. MSU had a down year in 2020, while NW won the Big 10 West yet in their only meeting a season ago the Spartans topped the Cats 29-20. It wasn’t a fluke as MSU outgained Northwestern by almost 100 yards and dominated in the trenches with 195 yards rushing while holding the Cats to 63. Now we expect a big improvement from Michigan State while Northwestern takes a big step back. No reason to believe MSU won’t win again this year taking that into consideration. NW has very little home field advantage with a 9-9 SU record here the last 3 season (very few fans, small stadium that is often overrun by opposing fans). Take the points with Michigan State |
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09-03-21 | Phillies -139 v. Marlins | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -139 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the visitors in this one – #955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -145 over Miami Marlins, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET – When a team is down 6-0 on the road and it is beyond the halfway point in a contest and they come back to win the game, that team is definitely "feeling it" and that is the situation right now with these Phillies. With that 7-6 win at Washington yesterday, Philadelphia has won 6 straight games which is the longest winning streak in the majors right now. Also, the Phillies have scored at least 7 runs in 7 straight games! The Marlins, on the other hand, have been struggling to score runs. Yesterday's 4-3 loss at New York (lost both match-ups with the Mets) dropped Miami to 4-11 in their last 15 games. Miami has been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of those 14 games! While the Phillies have scored at least 7 runs in 7 straight games, the Marlins have scored more than 6 runs just 2 times in the last 17 games! Phillies starter Kyle Gibson is 10-4 with a 2.66 ERA on the season and has produced quality starts in 5 of his 6 outings since coming to Philly from Texas this summer. The Marlins Jesus Luzardo is off a strong start versus the Reds but this followed tough performances in each of his first five starts with Miami after coming over from Oakland. Luzardo allowed 24 earned runs in 22 and 1 / 3 innings in those five starts. We have the big pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge and situational edge is squarely with the visitors in this one. We will grab the road team as a small favorite on the money line in this one and bet Philadelphia Phillies -145 |
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09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -18 over South Florida, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like NC State to be a surprise team in the ACC. We rate them as the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Wolfpack are coming off an 8-4 season and 2 of those losses were by 3 points or less. They are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 20 starters returning. Not only that, they have 28 players we’d consider “starters” due to the number of minutes they’ve played even when not starting. Their QB Leary played last year but was banged up for much of the season and he is back healthy. They have a solid and experienced offensive line, they bring back all of their top RB’s and WR’s and their defense returns it’s top 12 tacklers from last year. USF is in rebuilding mode in HC Jeff Scott’s 2nd year. The Bulls were decimated by Covid last year (as many teams were) and finished 1-8 with their only win coming vs the Citadel. 5 of their 8 losses came by at least 20 points. Since the start of the 2019 season this team has won only 5 games and 2 of those 5 wins were vs non FBS opponents (the Citadel & South Carolina St). They have a new starting QB Fortin who threw only 8 passes in last year’s injury riddled season. The offense topped 4.5 yards per play only 3 times in 8 games vs FBS teams last year and breaking in a new QB they will probably struggle early in the year. The Bulls defense was poor last year to say the least allowing 40 PPG on 441 YPG including getting whipped up front giving up 212 YPG rushing. They put zero pressure on the opposing QB netting just 7 sacks the entire season – only Navy & Arizona had fewer. USF has played 3 Power 5 teams the last 2 seasons (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, & Georgia Tech) and they’ve lose those games by an average score of 38-3. This is a bad first match up for this team and we expect a 20+ point win for NC State. |
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09-02-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
#901 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 runs (-130) over San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - The money line on this game has moved toward the Giants and the run line has followed suit as of early Thursday morning. This has put the Brewers +1.5 runs into a very playable range as it is now around a -130 price. The Giants, even if they win this game, have 25 wins by just 1-run this season. Only two teams in the majors have more than that. The point is that San Francisco may not even win this game and, if they do, it might be by just a single run. Only 59 of the Giants 133 games this season have been a SF win by a margin of 2 or more goals. With the way San Francisco is slumping, that is likely to be 59 of 134 after this one goes into the books. The Giants have lost 4 straight games overall and also 4 straight home games. San Francisco, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 23-18 this season against left-handed starters. The Brewers have been the best road team in the majors this season with a record of 46-23. Milwaukee starter Eric Lauer has given up some big hits to the Giants in recent meetings at San Francisco but still he is 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them with only 14 hits allowed in 18 innings. San Francisco has been in a slump at the plate and has been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of last 14 games. The Brewers have won 8 of 11 games and have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of those 11 games. Giants starter Logan Webb has great numbers this season but too much weight is being put on that and not enough on the overall recent play of these teams and that has led to line value with Milwaukee in this spot. The fact the Brewers just saw Webb (for the first time) 4 weeks ago also should help them here. Brewers are 66-37 against right-handed starters this season and, just like last year, Webb is again struggling more against left-handed bats than righties. Just like yesterday's game, look for the Brewers to have left-handed bats for at least 4 of the 8 position players. Look for the hot team to get the upset but, if they do fall short, the run line should prove to be ample insurance. Bet the Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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09-01-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 10 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET – What a rare game for Baltimore yesterday! Not only did they get a good start from Keegan Akin but their bullpen performed well also and that led to a 4-2 win. We do not expect lightning to strike twice on back to back days. The Orioles are starting Matt Harvey and he is 6-14 with a 6.18 ERA on the season. He is not showing signs of turning it around either as he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, in his last 3 starts against Toronto, Harvey has been charged with 13 earned runs in 13 and 2 / 3 innings! That said, the Blue Jays lineup should certainly have a bounce back day. But that is why Toronto is a high-priced favorite and we just can not trust Toronto starter Steven Matz which is why we are looking to ride the over to victory in this one. The Blue Jays lefty struggled at Baltimore when he faced the Orioles early in July. The over is 7-3 in his 10 home starts this season. Matz has pitched well in day games this season but, under the lights, he is 5-5 with a 4.89 ERA and opponents hitting .299 against him! The Orioles should get to him again here just like the prior meeting but, at the same time, look for Harvey and the Baltimore relievers that follow him to get pounded in this one. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-31-21 | Cubs v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs @ Minnesota Twins, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – The Cubs lineup is, of course, not what it used to be. However, the Twins pitching rotation has been depleted by injuries and Chicago can take advantage of facing John Gant here. The former Cardinals starter will be making his 3rd start since coming to Minnesota. As a result of having previously been with a division rival of the Cubs, they are familiar with him. Gant had a really rough time against the Cubs the last time when he faced them earlier this season and he did not even make it out of the 2nd inning. Also, Gant enters this start in poor current form with an 0-3 record and 9.58 ERA his last 3 starts and the last two of those have been with the Twins. Chicago starter Kyle Davies also expected to have some issues here. Davies is 2-4 with a 4.77 ERA on the road this season. He enters this start in poor current form as you can see with his last two starts even though both were at home! Davies gave up 5 homers and was lucky the damage was not worse than being charged with 6 earned runs in those 10 and 2 / 3 innings at Wrigley Field! The right-hander is facing a Twins team that has been tough on right-handed starters of late. Minnesota was shut down by the Yankees Gerrit Cole, just as most teams are. However, in their other 6 games since August 18th against right-handed starters the Twins have scored an average of 6.7 runs per game. The over went 4-1-1 in those games. The Cubs have also trended over of late with a 5-1-1 mark in their past 7 games. Chicago is off a 13-1 drubbing at the hands of the White Sox on Sunday but the Cubs scored an average of 8.2 runs a game in the 5 contests that preceded that. Last but not least, the Twins bullpen has been one of the weaker ones in MLB this season and the Cubs pen has not been much better and also has struggled on the road. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-30-21 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Texas Rangers, Monday at 8:05 PM ET – The Rangers surprised with a 13-2 win yesterday. Though that type of offensive outburst has been rare for Texas they should carry momentum right into this match-up with a struggling German Marquez. The Rockies right-hander is 3-7 with a 5.16 ERA on the road this season. He enters this start in particularly poor form with a total of 12 earned runs allowed in just 7 innings over his past two road starts. Marquez has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts. The Rangers, despite all the losing, have scored 6 or more runs in 5 of last 10 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the last 8 games. The Rockies, despite a horrible road record on the season, have scored better of late on the road. Colorado is off a shutout win over the Dodgers and they've suddenly won 3 of 4 on the road and scored an average of 6 runs in these games. The Rockies will be facing the Rangers A.J. Alexy who is a highly touted rookie. However, despite his solid numbers this season, Alexy averages less than 5 innings per appearance and also this was his first season above the single A level of the minors. Do not be surprised if he struggles some as this is a big jump up to the majors for him and is only because of the Rangers having a number of starting pitchers on the covid-19 protocol list. Also, Alexy is unlikely to pitch deep per his track record in the minors. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-29-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Astros are 11-3 against the Rangers this season. Zack Greinke is 3-0 last 3 starts versus Texas and those victories were all by multiple-run margins - an aggregate score of 21 to 9. Greinke is 6-0 with a 2.34 ERA on the road this season. Taylor Hearn starts for the Rangers here and is 0-2 with a 5.78 ERA in his 3 home starts on the year. Texas is on an 11-35 run and 30 of those 35 losses have been by more than 1 run! You can see why we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs here to get a reasonable price on an Astros team that should dominate here. Greinke in line for a great start and the Rangers are 22-56 against right-handed starters this season. Houston is a fantastic 36-16 in divisional games this season and still working hard to hold off Oakland at the top of the AL West. That said, Greinke and the Astros are unlikely to let Hearn and the Rangers stand in the way on Sunday afternoon. The Astros have won 7 of 9 games and 18 of their last 20 victories have been by 2+ runs. Houston is set up well for a big road rout win here and Greinke should dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a reasonable -135 price range on the run line. Take Houston Astros -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-28-21 | Bucs -3.5 v. Texans | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 61 h 57 m | Show |
#117 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Houston, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Super Bowl champs step into this game with an 0-2 pre-season record. QB Brady has played one series the entire pre-season and the starters have been very limited. In their game last weekend vs Tennessee, most of the starters didn’t even see the field. That changes this week. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians stated he needs to get his regulars some extended playing time in preparation for their NFL opener vs Dallas. "We can't go against Dallas and all of sudden play game speed. We've got to have some game speed under our belt before we show up against the Cowboys,” Arians said this week. Houston, on the other hand, is 2-0 in the pre-season beating the Packers and the Cowboys. Their defense has yet to play against a legit QB having faced Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, and Cooper Rush so far in their 2 NFLX games. Now they’ll have to face Brady and the Tampa starters for an extended period of time. Despite their 2 wins the Houston offense, still without QB Watson, has averaged just 4.4 YPP. Now they will face perhaps the top defense in the NFL with their QB rotation of Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driskel, and Davis Mills. If the Tampa starters play as planned, we basically have one of the top teams in the NFL (Bucs) facing one of the worst teams in the NFL (Texans). We’ll lay it in this game and take Tampa to cover. |
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08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET - We had our eyes on this potential match-up for Saturday and it could not have been set up more perfectly. The Phillies off a big win in extra innings at home yesterday and can build off that momentum here. That is because the Diamondbacks are starting Humberto Mejia while the Phillies are starting Kyle Gibson. Arizona's Mejia has only 4 career starts at the MLB level and he has been hit at a .302 mark in those outings. Also, though he has some good numbers at the lower level of the minors, he has struggled facing hitters at the AAA level. In his 12 starts this year at the AAA level he compiled a 5.93 ERA and was hit at a .305 clip. As you can see, he has been hit at over .300 when facing hitters above the AA level whether in the minors or the majors. Mejia just started last week at Pittsburgh and he only allowed 2 earned runs but 6 hits in 5 innings and he walked a pair. Keep in mind, this was against a bad Pirates team and now he faces a Phillies team still fighting hard to remain in playoff contention. Philadelphia will be bolstered today by having Kyle Gibson on the mound. He is coming off a strong outing and has had 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings. Gibson allowed only 9 earned runs in 32 and 2 / 3 innings in those 5 starts and also has had strong success against the Diamondbacks in his career. This Arizona team, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 17-50 in road games this season. The Diamondbacks, prior to yesterday's one run loss, were on a run in which 19 of 23 losses were by 2+ runs. 18 of the Phillies last 25 wins were by 2+ runs before yesterday's win by a single run. Philadelphia is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Gibson should dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
#300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +7 over Nebraska, Saturday, August 28th at 12:00 PM ET - There is always a lot of optimism in Huskerland entering every season, however the results have not matched the “fan” expectations. This team is favored by a full TD, on the road in their Big 10 opener yet they are just 9-17 SU overall in conference play under head coach Scott Frost. They have won just 4 conference games by more than 7 points in the last 3 years. We believe they are overvalued entering the season (as per usual) and their opponent in game 1 we feel is a bit undervalued right now. The Illini had a rough 2-6 season last year but they were decimated at QB pushing all the way down to their 4th stringer due to injury/illness. This year they expect senior Brandon Peters, former Michigan starter, to have a big season and we agree. He’s operating behind a very solid, veteran offensive line that could turn out to be one of the better units in the conference. The defense returns 16 of their top 18 tacklers and new head coach Bret Bielema knows defense and likes what he sees on that side of the ball. Up front they should be vastly improved defensively with their entire DLine coming back, all upperclassmen, and a few key LB’s back in the line up that were injured last season. They should be able to limit a Nebraska running game that relies too heavily on QB Martinez (leading rusher last year). The Huskers don’t have a single RB returning that rushed from more than 75 yards the entire 2020 season. That means Nebraska may have to have a big day through the air to win this one and we simply don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez who finished 12th in the Big 10 averaging only 150 YPG passing last year. Despite their struggles last season, the Illini were able to waltz into Lincoln and whip the Huskers 41-23 on nearly 500 yards of total offense. The year before Nebraska went to Illinois and barely escaped with a 42-38 win. We expect Illinois to have a solid shot at winning this game at home and getting a TD is generous. Bielema and his new staff have pretty much given the fans and media no access to practices so Nebraska will be guessing a bit when it comes to what Illinois will be doing on both sides of the ball here. Take the points. |
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08-28-21 | Packers v. Bills OVER 36.5 | Top | 0-19 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 36.5 Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills, Saturday 1 PM ET - The Packers have had some glaring deficiencies defensively in the preseason with 23 and 26 points allowed to the Jets and Texans. It’s only preseason but there are clearly some underlying problems with the Packer ‘D’. Consider the Jets and Texans were two of the worst offenses in the NFL last season and yet they put up 268-yards and 319-yards. New York was 30th a year ago in points scored per game while Houston was 21st in yards per point offensively. Now the Pack face a Bills offense that was 4th in Yards Per Point, 3rd in scoring and 4th in total yards per game gained. Buffalo is planning to start and play their regulars for a few series and clearly have capable backups which produced 41-points last week in Chicago. Green Bay is going to start and play QB Jordan Love who sat out last week against the Jets. Love was 12 of 17 with a TD in his preseason debut and should move the ball here against the Bills. Green Bay has yet to look good in the exhibition season but let’s not forget this unit was 2nd in total yards per game a year ago, 1st in scoring at 31.5PPG and 2nd in Yards Per Point at 12.5. Buffalo has faced the Lions and Bears who were bottom ten teams in the NFL offensively a year ago, so this is a dramatic step up in competition. Look for a few early scores from the starters and some late by the guys fighting for a spot on the rosters. BET OVER. |
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08-27-21 | Blue Jays v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET – On the surface, this may not look like an over but there are some interesting aspects to the line here. By that, we don't just mean the total either. This looks like it should be an easy Jays win and yet Toronto opened up as a rather moderately priced favorite. The line has since risen considerably on the Blue Jays but we feel the message with that earlier lower money line from the odds makers is that they are expecting the Tigers to score some runs here (and have a shot at the upset as a result) because certainly the Blue Jays should get their runs here too. That is also why, in our opinion, this total opened up at a 9.5 which might have seemed, before digging deeper, to be a little on the high side. Let's dig in! The starter for the Tigers is Matt Manning and he has a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts and has been hit hard with 23 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings! The starter for Toronto here is Steven Matz and the Tigers just saw him last week. He had some success but only recorded one strikeout and now Detroit gets him at home. The over is 4-1-1 in Tigers last home 6 games and they allowed 46 runs in those games but also did score 10 in their most recent game as a host and are coming off a road trip in which they won 3 of 5. That helps confidence and, speaking of confidence, the Jays exploded for 7 runs yesterday but they allowed 10 in that one! Toronto has averaged 6.3 runs last 3 road games and the over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 games away from home. Both starters could get lit up here and then the bullpens are likely to have some struggles too. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-26-21 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET – These teams each reached double digits in hits yesterday. There were only 4 other games on the board yesterday where each team had at least 9 hits. Those 4 games averaged 16 runs total while the match-up between the Rangers and Indians reached 9 runs for a push on the posted total of 9 runs for the game. The point is that there certainly could have been more runs yesterday and we feel strongly that we will see those runs today. Rangers entered yesterday's game scoring an average of 7 runs last 3 games. The Indians have won 7 of 11 games and have scored an average of about 6 runs per game during this stretch. Cleveland facing Jordan Lyles on the mound for Texas in this one. Lyles is 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA in his road starts this season and the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts overall. Lyles is off a rare good start versus the Red Sox. He was charged with at least 5 earned runs in each of his 3 preceding starts so the start against Boston was a rarity indeed. The Indians start Sam Hentges and there have only been 3 unders in his 11 starts this season. He has an 8.27 ERA on the season and has not recorded a single winning decision in his 11 starts this season. The Rangers bullpen has a 5.03 ERA on the road this season and the Indians bullpen has good numbers on the season but an unimpressive 4.10 ERA the last 30 days. Both starters could get lit up here and then the bullpens likely to have some struggles too. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-25-21 | Giants v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET – Taijuan Walker starts for the Mets in this one. The New York right-hander has struggled badly since the mid-summer Classic. Post-All Star break Walker has made 7 starts and he is 0-5 with a 7.49 ERA. Now he faces a Giants team with a .439 slugging percentage this season - tops in the National League. The Giants starter here is Johnny Cueto. He is coming back from an injury and could show some rust in this start. Cueto is 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA on the road this season. Opponents are hitting .309 against him in those 9 road starts. Cueto also has been much worse in night games than day games. Under the lights the Giants right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA and opponents hitting .301 against him this season. The Mets got drilled 8-0 by San Francisco yesterday but should bounce back against Cueto. New York entered this series having scored 4 or more runs in 5 of last 6 home games. Expect a bounce back here for the NY lineup and look for the Giants to continue their strong success at the plate. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-24-21 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Pirates | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the visitors in this one – #951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -110 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Pirates got the win yesterday but were on a 3-10 run in home games before getting the rare W yesterday. Overall, Pittsburgh had lost 16 of 20 games. The Diamondbacks, though certainly having a rough season and struggling on the road overall, had won 7 of 10 games before yesterday's loss. Now, on Tuesday, Arizona is scheduled to start Madison Bumgarner and he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All Star Break. Bumgarner has a 1.93 ERA in his last 7 starts! The Pirates JT Brubaker has been at the other end of the spectrum during roughly the same period of time. Brubaker is not only 4-13 on the season but he has gone 0-7 with an 8.26 ERA over his last 9 starts and he has been amazingly homer-prone! In 7 of those 9 starts Brubaker has allowed 2 or more homers! We understand it might seem hard to trust a team with such a bad road record here but they have been the better team in recent weeks without a doubt and we especially like having them off a loss here while the Pirates win over them yesterday was a rare one. In fact, Arizona had won 9 of last 10 against Pittsburgh before yesterday's defeat. We have the big pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge and situational edge is squarely with the visitors in this one. We will grab the road team as a small favorite on the money line in this one and bet Arizona Diamondbacks -110 |
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08-23-21 | Mariners +116 v. A's | Top | 5-3 | Win | 116 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and momentum edges clearly with the visitors in this one – #909 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners +115 over Oakland A's, Monday at 9:40 PM ET – Paul Blackburn gets the start for the Athletics here. He struggled last week in what was his first MLB start in nearly a year. Ironically that prior start in 2020 was also against the Mariners. In his last 3 starts at the MLB level Blackburn has allowed 15 earned runs in 10 and 2 / 3 innings. Also, the right-hander had not been overly impressive, to say the least, toiling away in the minors before being called up for last week's start. Blackburn had allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts at the minor league level. In those 4 outings the damage was bad and could have been even worse as he allowed a combined 36 hits in 20 and 1 / 3 innings! Look for him to struggle here and he faces a Mariners team high on confidence right now as they have won 8 of 11 games. The A's, on the other hand, are slumping and have lost 6 of last 8 games. That means Seattle's red-hot starter, Marco Gonzales, should dominate here. The M's lefty has been on fire with a 0.67 ERA his last 4 starts. It is no fluke either as the southpaw has only surrendered 16 hits in those 27 innings! Going further back he is 4-0 last 6 starts and has been charged with a total of only 6 earned runs in those 6 outings. We have the big pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge and momentum is clearly with the visitors in this one. We will grab the road team as an underdog on the money line in this one and bet Seattle Mariners +115 |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
#431/432 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points – Jacksonville vs New Orleans, Monday at 8 PM ET - New Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer has not made it a secret that he wants an up tempo offense. The Jags ran 65 plays last week vs Cleveland and Meyer stated he was upset with the team’s offensive tempo and wanted to push the dial much more heading into this week’s game @ New Orleans. They worked on it all week in practice and we would expect them to run 70+ plays this week. Meyer stated, “I thought practice was much better. I get the first game [being slow], but now I want to try to have a little bit of success.” We like their QB rotation of Lawrence, Minshew and Beathard which should give them a chance to put points on the board this week. The defense is definitely a work in progress and allowed 23 points to the Browns last week after finishing 31st last year giving up 31 PPG. New Orleans only put up 14 points last week vs a very good Baltimore defense but averaged 6.0 YPP. They turned the ball over 6 times in that game including 3 deep inside Raven territory at the 8-yard line, the 11-yard line and the 35-yard line (all potential scoring opportunities lost). On top of that the Ravens turned the ball over at the 11-yard line and were stopped on downs at the Saints 39 in that game (more blown scoring chances). We like the QB competition between Winston and Hill as both are veterans with starting experience and both need to be on top of their game fighting for the #1 job. We expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game with the Jags wanting to play fast and the Saints finishing in the top 10 in plays per game last season. The pre-season has been low scoring for the most part thus far, but we look for this to be one of the higher scoring games to date. Take the OVER. |
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08-22-21 | Mets v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +105 on Run Line over New York Mets, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET – Some added value here as the line has moved toward the Mets. That is because Marcus Stroman is on the mound and has some solid numbers this season for New York. However, David Price certainly has some solid numbers for the Dodgers too and we like the fact that LA has won 9 straight games and the Mets have lost 8 of 9. The value here is on the run line rather than laying a big price and this is true even though a number of recent Dodgers wins have been by just 1 run. The Mets are down to their 3rd and 4th string options at catcher right now as Sisco and Mazeika because both McCann and Nido are out with injuries. This can be tough on a pitching staff and the Mets slump likely to continue here. Also, Stroman has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 road starts and the Dodgers did explode for 3 homers in yesterday's game. On the season the Mets are 13-24 against lefties and Price should have another solid outing here. The Dodgers are a perfect 6-0 against the Mets this season and 59 of 78 wins on the season by 2 or more runs. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a price range around +105 on the run line. Take Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11.5 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET – Rockies have won 5 straight but Diamondbacks had won 6 of 7 before back to back losses. The point being that both teams are playing with quite a bit of confidence right now and we are expecting the bats to rule the day in this one. Yesterday's game was low-scoring and the Rockies got a big walk-off win in the bottom of the 9th. This game looks to have some big hits much earlier in the game as Colorado continues to hit well at home but even the road-adverse Diamondbacks get rolling here courtesy of facing a struggling pitcher. Jon Gray is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA this month. He has a 5.00 ERA against Arizona this season and they have seen him often so they have plenty of familiarity with his repertoire of pitches. Now the Dbacks catch him when he is struggling. Arizona starter Taylor Widener has been struggling too as he has a 6.33 ERA his last 6 starts. In his only career start at Coors Field he was in on the mound for less than 2 innings. This will be a tough test for him the way the Rockies have been swinging the bats. This total is in the 11.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about at least a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-21-21 | Colts v. Vikings -1.5 | Top | 12-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
#422 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This line opened as a pick-em and immediately jumped to Vikings -2.5 for good reason. Minnesota looked terrible in last week’s 33-6 home loss to the Broncos and we expect a big bounce back performance here. Head coach Mike Zimmer didn’t play any of his starters last week but was still extremely upset with his team’s effort & performance and let them know it. They’ve had a very good week of practice and this team will play with some urgency after last week’s result. Zimmer also plans on playing most of his starters on Saturday. He’s always put a lot of emphasis on winning pre-season games with a 20-7 overall record which includes last week’s loss. Indy takes the road after beating Carolina on a last second FG in their opener on Monday. The Colts had to score 10 points in the final 7:00 minutes to come from behind and get the win. Now they are on a short week having been the only game last Sunday. Indy never led in that game until they kicked the game winning FG with 7 seconds remaining. The Colts had more yardage overall but also ran 21 more offensive snaps compared to the Panthers and still barely won the game. We know their starting QB Wentz is still not ready to go after an injury and won’t play in this game. Minnesota will definitely be the more motivated team in this NFLX game and we expect them to win by more than a FG. Take the Vikings. |
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08-21-21 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Nationals have suddenly won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 7-game losing streak and losses in 12 of last 13 games. Yesterday the Nats got the better of the Brewers and having a lefty on the mound. Milwaukee is only a .500 team against lefties this season but is a dominant 60-36 against right-handed starters and 34-16 in day games this season. With the Brewers starting righty Paolo Espino, the Brewers lineup will have some of their left-handed lumber back in the lineup after they were held out of yesterday's lineup and then used in a pinch-hit role. Washington starter Espino has a 10.80 ERA in his last 3 starts - all Nationals losses - and two of those were at home. Nationals are also 0-3 overall this season in Espino's road starts. He'll likely prove to be no match for Milwaukee in this one. The Brewers starting pitching situation is the much better one for this game. Eric Lauer is 3-1 over his last 7 appearances (6 starts) and has a fantastic 1.53 ERA during this stretch. Lauer also has a 2.89 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Nationals. The Brewers are 21-10 last 31 games and 18 of the 21 victories came by 2+ run margin or more. Better team, better lineup, better starting pitcher, and also the much better bullpen and not just on the full season. Over the last 30 days the Brewers bullpen has been one of the best (#2 out of 30) with a 3.16 ERA while the Nationals bullpen has been one of the worst (#28 out of 30) with a 5.52 ERA. Also, Washington is 14-23 against left-handed starters this season and Brewers have won 6 of last 7 versus right-handed starters. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-20-21 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Brett Anderson enters off a rare rough outing and, of all teams, it was against the Pirates! However, we can not ignore the fact that Anderson entered that start with a 1.40 ERA over the 5-start stretch before that rare dud. Anderson has a 2.81 ERA in 6 home starts this season. He'll be opposed by Patrick Corbin of the Nationals in this one. The Washington left-hander has a 6.36 ERA on the road this year and the Nationals have lost 8 of those 11 starts. Corbin has given up 6 homers in his last 3 starts. Washington is off back to back wins but this was on the heels of a 5-19 run. Milwaukee is off a loss but that was on the heels of an 18-6 run. This is clearly a case of two teams that are, overall, heading opposite directions! Additionally, 27 of the Brewers last 31 wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs so we have no hesitation in laying the run line in this one and grabbing Milwaukee at -1.5 runs. Nationals are 21-35 on the road this season and 13-23 against left-handed starters. Also lets not forget about the bullpens here and Milwaukee rates a huge edge in that department on the season as well as the last 30 days. In fact, over the last 30 days the Brewers have a 3.12 ERA and rank 2nd in bullpen ERA while the Nationals bullpen ranks 28th with a 5.72 ERA. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a -105 pick'em price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-19-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The Astros have lost 4 straight games including the first 3 games of this 4-game set with the Royals. We don't see that continuing here. No way. Luis Garcia gives Houston a big edge on the mound against Kansas City in this one. The Royals are starting Mike Minor and he has a 6.84 ERA over 50 innings spanning his last 9 starts. The Astros Garcia is 9-3 in his last dozen decisions and has a 3.30 ERA this season with opponents hitting just .217 against him. Houston had lost Wednesday's game after a 1-run loss Tuesday. Prior to this the Astros were 4-1 this season when they were on the road and coming off a loss by a 1-run margin. After yesterday's tight defeat in which Houston outhit KC but lost 3-2 on the scoreboard, the Astros bounce back strong. Houston has the best run differential in the AL so far this season with positive 161 runs. The Royals rank 26th in the majors in that same category with negative 106 runs. 51 of Kansas City's 67 losses have come by 2+ runs this season. 58 of the Astros 70 wins have come by 2+ runs this season. Per our computer math model an easy win for the road team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a -110 pick'em price range on the run line. Take Houston Astros -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-18-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – These teams swung the bats quite well yesterday, particularly the Yankees, as there were 29 hits in the equivalent of 13 innings of baseball (Yankees did not bat in bottom of 7th of either game). We look for the hot hitting to continue here as the Yankees send a struggling Andrew Heaney to the mound and the Red Sox Nick Pivetta is likely going to see this hot Yankees team prove to be tough to shut down. New York has won 12 of 15 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs during this stretch. The Red Sox are 3-1 to the over in last 4 games against a left-handed starter and the average total runs scored in those 4 games was 15 and that includes Game 1 of yesterday's double-header against southpaw Montgomery. Overall Boston was plenty hot at the plate before struggling to score runs in yesterday's games and now they will enjoy big success against Heaney. The Yankees southpaw has been a disaster in his 3 starts since coming over from the Angels. Heaney has allowed 8 homers and 15 earned runs in 15 innings. Boston has given Heaney some problems too the last two times they have faced them. Pivetta is off back to back successful outings for the Red Sox. However, we can not ignore the fact that he was struggling just before this with 15 earned runs allowed on 24 hits in 20 innings of work. This one gets well into double digits in runs scored in most of our computer math models run for this game. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-17-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 6-12 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
#931 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals have lost 12 of 13 games. The Blue Jays have won 13 of 19 games. Of course this, plus a big starting pitching edge, has a lot to do with the factors behind why Toronto is a huge money line favorite in this game by odds of about 2 to 1. We would not suggest laying a price like that but we do like the Blue Jays on the run line here. Though the Nationals have had a fair number of one-run losses recently, the Blue Jays have been the masters of the big wins this season. Incredibly, Toronto has had only 8 wins by a single run margin this season and this is a team that has won 63 games on the year! 87% of the Blue Jays wins have been by 2+ runs so if you like them to win the better value, by far, has been with the run line in their games this season. Toronto starter Alek Manoah is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 11 starts this season. Manoah is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. Washington starter Erick Fedde is 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 19 starts this year. Fedde has allowed 33 earned runs in 40 innings over his last 9 games for a 7.43 ERA since late June. The Jays bullpen has a 3.46 ERA on the road this season and the Nats bullpen has a 4.59 ERA at home this season. Per our computer math model an easy win for the road team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -125 price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-16-21 | Cubs v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds -1.5 -115 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs have lost 11 straight games. With yesterday's 4-1 loss at Miami, 9 of Chicago's last 10 losses have been by at least a margin of two runs. The Reds are off a 7-4 win at Philadelphia yesterday. Cincinnati has won 8 of 12 games. The Reds last 7 wins have featured 6 victories by at least a margin of two runs. We like the run line value here with the home team in what should be another blowout loss for floundering Chicago. The Cubs average margin of defeat in their last dozen losses is 4.7 runs! Indeed Chicago is often getting beaten badly and this one looks like more of the same. Cincinnati is 8-2 in Wade Miley's home starts and he has a 2.56 ERA at Great American Ball Park this season. Justin Steele starts for the Cubs and has shown some flashes with good stuff. However, he struggled last week in his first ever MLB start. He has been working mostly out of the pen for Chicago and this is his rookie season. In his last full season in the minors, 2019, Steele went 0-6 with a 5.59 ERA in his 11 starts. The Reds have scored an average of 6.17 runs during their current 8-4 run. The Cubs have been held to 4 or less runs in 8 of last 9 games. In fact the Cubs have averaged scoring only 2.13 runs in those 8 defeats. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -115 price range on the run line. Take Cincinnati Reds -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-15-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
#905 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET - The Pirates ended their 8-game losing streak with a win in Game 1 of yesterday's double-header. Things quickly returned to normal though for Pittsburgh as the Brewers got Game 2 by a 6-0 count and dropped the Pirates to 6-19 in their last 25 games. Pittsburgh's last 18 losses have featured 16 by a margin of 2+ runs and another ugly defeat appears likely here. The Pirates are starting Dillon Peters in this one and he has been working in the minors so far this season. It will be just his 2nd MLB start since the 2019 MLB season. Peters simply has not had success at the MLB level and has a 5.83 ERA with a .290 BAA in his career. The Brewers starting pitching situation is the much better one for this game. Eric Lauer is 3-1 over his last 6 appearances (5 starts) and has a fantastic 1.44 ERA during this stretch. Lauer also has a 0.98 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Pirates which include two this season. The Brewers are 18-8 last 26 games and 16 of the 18 victories came by 2+ run margin or more. Better team, better lineup, better starting pitcher, and also the much better bullpen and not just on the full season. Over the last 30 days the Brewers bullpen has been one of the best with a 3.09 ERA while the Pirates bullpen has been one of the worst with a 5.91 ERA. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -125 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-14-21 | Chiefs v. 49ers -2.5 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 29 m | Show |
#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -2 over Kansas City, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We love the Niners QB rotation for pre-season purposes and they have a big edge in that regard. KC obviously has Mahomes, however he’s coming off a leg injury during the playoffs last year and you can bet Andy Reid will be very careful with him. Even if Mahomes plays, which we’re not 100% sure he will, we expect maybe 1 series. After that it’s Chad Henne and after that it’s 2 rookie free agents. San Fran, on the other hand, has a QB battle on their hands. Starter Jimmy Garoppolo is being pushed by 1st round draft pick Trey Lance and word is both are playing well. Because there is a QB battle for the Niners, we expect both to play as if their jobs are on the line. Even their 3rd and 4th stringers behind center are solid with Josh Rosen (former 1st round pick) and Nate Sudfeld who has some experience coming over from Philly. This is a big game for the Niners at home. They are coming off a poor, injury riddled season just one year after making it to the Super Bowl and losing to this Chiefs team. SF had more injuries than any other team in the NFL last season which led to their 6-10 record which included only 1 win at home. You can bet they want to get this pre-season home opener vs the team that knocked them off in the Super Bowl. This one isn’t a big deal for KC. They’ve been to back to back Super Bowls and HC Andy Reid actually has mentioned he hopes his players can “reset” so to speak after 2 long grueling (physically & mentally) seasons. He wants them ready for the regular season and this game is meaningless to the Chiefs. Reid has proven over time he’s not into winning in the pre-season with a 39-45 record since 2003 and only 3 winning seasons in the pre-season during that span. We like San Francisco to get this win at home. |
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08-14-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
#951/952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – We successfully used the under in the match-up between these teams yesterday but that was heavily based on the pitching match-up. The fact is both these teams have been swinging pretty hot bats and today's pitchers will not stand in the way of the hot hitting. Before being held to 1 run in yesterday's loss, the Phillies had won 9 of 11 games and averaged 6.3 runs scored in the 9 wins. The Reds have won 8 of 12 games and the over was on an 8-2 run last 10 games prior to yesterday's under. Cincinnati has scored an average of 6.5 runs in their last dozen games. As for the pitchers today, the over is 6-2-1 in Matt Moore's starts this season and he is winless in those 9 starts. The Phillies left-hander has particularly struggled in home starts with a 9.30 ERA in five starts at Citizens Bank Park. The Reds start Luis Castillo and he is off an ugly road outing at Cleveland. Castillo had been hot before that start but he definitely has struggled more on the road than at home when he does get tripped up. Including the start against the Indians, Castillo is now 2-6 with a 5.40 ERA in his 12 road starts this season and the over is 8-3-1 in those. Castillo has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two road starts. He also allowed a pair of homers the last time he pitched at Philly. Moore's last two starts have both been in Philly and he allowed a pair of homers in each of those. Don't be surprised if this game turns into a slugfest as, also the Phillies pen has been better of late but still is certainly no strength and the Reds pen is a major weakness. This one gets well into double digits in runs scored in most of our computer math models run for this game. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – Zach Wheeler dominated the Mets in his most recent start and has only one tougher home start in his last five starts as a host. In other 4 home starts Wheeler has allowed a total of just 4 earned runs. Wheeler is 6-3 with a 2.02 ERA at home this season and last year he went 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his 7 starts at home as he has dominated in starts in Philadelphia since coming to the Phillies. More of the same is in the forecast here but indeed he will have to be extremely good for the Phillies to have a chance to win this game. That's because Tyler Mahle is 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA on the road this season. Also, adding to the value here is the fact this is the first time these pitchers are starting against these lineups since 2019. We do not expect either lineup to have much success here as a result. The Phillies have not played to an over in a full week. As for the Reds they had been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of 4 games before yesterday's explosion at the plate and they are likely to struggle with Wheeler here. He has been displaying electric stuff of late and pitching deep into games and that limits the bullpen impact in this game but, by the way, the Phillies pen has been much better recently. You can not judge them based on their full season numbers and we also look for Mahle to dominate deep into this one as he has averaged 6 innings per road start over the last two months. Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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08-12-21 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 4:10 PM ET – These teams have struggled at the plate recently and this continued in last night's slim 2-1 Mariners win. For Seattle, that was just their 2nd win in 7 games and the Mariners have scored an average of 2.9 runs per game during this stretch. For Texas, that was their 7th loss in their last 8 games and the Rangers have averaged scoring only 2.1 runs per game in those 8 games. In the 7 losses, the Rangers never topped 3 runs. The Mariners have only topped 4 runs once in their last dozen games. Mike Foltynewicz is off consecutive outings which both were solid and both stayed under. This included one against the Mariners and, in fact, each of Foltynewicz last 3 starts against Seattle this season all went under the total. Marco Gonzalez starts for the Mariners here and has a 1.47 ERA last 3 starts and all stayed under the total. This included a solid start against the Rangers and the way both Texas and Seattle have struggled to score runs of late this one appears to be pegged for another under. Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Thursday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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08-11-21 | A's v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Cleveland Indians vs Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET – This line opened at a 9 and moved to a 9.5 in early market activity and this was likely due to favorable winds expected for this one this evening. While the winds will be blowing out at a decent clip for this one, batters still not only have to put the ball in play but also make solid contact to take advantage of that and this is likely to be an issue this evening. Both these starting pitchers have been in excellent form and are also tallying up plenty of strikeouts. The A's Frankie Montas has a 2.84 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. The under has cashed in all three of his last three starts against the Indians and Montas has a 2.66 ERA in his 4 career starts against Cleveland. The Indians have Cal Quantrill on the mound here and he opposed Montas in a 3-2 Cleveland win right after the All Star break. He has been red hot since then too with a 0.47 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has struck out 21 in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. Quantrill takes on an A's team that has been held to 4 or less runs in 4 of last 5 road games including last night's extra-inning Oakland win. The Indians face Montas who has been particularly dominant on the road of late with a total of only 6 earned runs allowed in his last 4 away starts. Also, Montas has struck out double digits in each of his last 3 starts in enemy ballparks! Last but certainly not least, these are two of the best bullpens in the American League. Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 7 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Wednesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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08-10-21 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 10 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – Earlier this season the White Sox were pounding lefty starters. Now they have cooled off against southpaws but are crushing the ball in games against right-handed starters and that continued in yesterday's big 11-1 win. Chicago has won 7 of last 8 against right-handed starters and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those contests. Now they face Griffin Jax and this will be the first time this season that the rookie right-hander has made a second start against a team. It also is his first ever home start at the MLB level. Jax has a 7.27 ERA in his 3 long-relief home appearances out of the bullpen this season so this may not go well for him for multiple reasons including the pressure of opening up a game on the mound at Target Field for the first time ever. The White Sox could jump on him early as they stay hot at the plate. They are likely to need the runs here as the Twins should enjoy success against Sox lefty Dallas Keuchel. The Twins have seen only 3 of their last dozen games result in an under. A trio of starters were rested for yesterday's match-up with Lucas Giolito and, predictably, Minnesota faltered at the plate. Those guys should be back tonight and facing a fading Keuchel. He is off a solid home start but it was against a bad Royals team who had just hammered him recently for 3 homers when the teams met in KC. That was followed by a start hosting the Indians in which Keuchel also allowed 3 homers. He has an ERA north of 5.00 since the All Star break and has a history of being much more hittable on the road and that trend has resumed this season. The White Sox bullpen has been respectable this season but likely will be expected to do too much here if Keuchel struggles as expected. The Twins bullpen has been one of the weaker ones in MLB this season. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-08-21 | Royals v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET – The Royals have been trending under for many weeks now. However, if there was a perfect spot for Kansas City to snap that trending in a strong way this might very well be it. The Cardinals are sending Jon Lester to the mound. The veteran lefty has made only one start since coming to the Cards from the Nats but it looked very much like his recent starts with the Nationals. The fact is that Lester is in a major slump right now and can't seem to break his rough patch of poor form. The odds are heavily stacked against a strong start from Lester here as he has been roughed up in 6 of his last 7 outings. The one start was impressive but the other 6 had a cumulative line of 26 earned runs charged to Lester in 23 and a third innings. He is not just getting hit a little, Lester has been getting rocked. The Royals start Kris Bubic here. The Kansas City left-hander has just one win in five road starts this season and all but one of them went over the total. Bubic has a 7.30 ERA in those 5 road starts and another rough one is likely here. St Louis will take advantage of Bubic pitching to hard contact as the lefty has given up 13 homers in those 5 road starts. Being homer prone has also been an issue for Lester as he has given up a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. The Cardinals have averaged scoring 6 runs a game in their last 6 victories and are a big favorite here for a reason. Look for St Louis to get to at least that number today but the Royals are going to give Lester issues as well and that is why this one gets into double digits in runs scored in most of our computer math models run for this game. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-07-21 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET – It might seem hard to believe given their poor overall record on the season but the Orioles have the highest slugging percentage in the majors against left-handed pitching this season. Here the Orioles will be getting a second shot at southpaw Shane McClanahan after just facing him a couple weeks ago. McClanahan is having a solid rookie campaign but now faces a Baltimore team that pounded out fifteen hits in yesterday's loss. The teams combined for 29 hits in that one as the Rays bats were also hot. The strong hitting should continue today as Baltimore tends to hit well at home and McClanahan has a 1.50 WHIP in his last two starts and those were at home. He is 0-3 in his 7 road starts this season and though he has pitched decent in those, the Orioles lineup getting another quick look at him, and this time at home, will benefit them. The same holds true for the TB lineup and getting another shot at Spenser Watkins. The Baltimore rookie just faced the Rays a couple weeks ago and he had a solid start there but now Tampa Bay gets another look and this tends to go rough on rookie pitchers in the rematch. Also, Watkins enters this one in a bit of tougher form as he has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts and that was even with those totaling less than ten innings on the hill. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Watkins' home starts this season and we look for that trend to continue in a big way here. Rays have averaged 6.4 runs per game last 8 games - a 6-2 stretch for Tampa Bay. Orioles have averaged 5.4 runs last 5 home games but their problem is on the mound. Baltimore has now allowed double digits in runs in 3 straight games overall. Also, the Orioles have allowed 7 or more runs in 3 straight home games. Of course all 3 went over the total and this one lines up well to keep that trend going. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - We’ve hit the fade button on bad road teams like Colorado/Arizona/Texas/KC/Pittsburgh with a number of our picks this season and with solid success overall. We’ll pull the trigger again on Friday night and side with the San Diego Padres on the run line. Arizona has lost 5 of its last 6 games overall and the Diamondbacks are 13-41 in road games on the season. 54 of Arizona's 76 losses this season have come by 2+ runs. 47 of San Diego's 62 wins have come by 2+ runs. The Padres are 20-9 against lefties this year. Tonight San Diego's lineup - still potent even with Tatis on the shelf - will face a southpaw that has struggled on the road this season. Caleb Smith has a 9.00 ERA and an 0-5 record in his 5 road starts this season. With plenty of run support, San Diego left-hander Ryan Weathers should notch a dominant home win here. Weathers is off a rare bad outing and now should come right back with a strong one in this bounce back start as he faces a Diamondbacks team that is 6-21 against southpaw starters this season. The Padres have been up and down of late but they are 36-22 at home this season and the much better team in this match-up plus in a bounce back spot after a rare blown save led to a loss in their most recent games. Adding to the value here the home team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take San Diego Padres -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-05-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET – Cleveland's rally fell short last night yet it was still a big game at the plate for them as they ended up with 6 runs on 15 hits in the game. The Indians have an O/U mark in their games of 5-2 last 7. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game which has helped lead the way to a 6-1 record over their past 7 games. This looks like an ideal spot for the bats to keep it going at the plate. Cleveland's Triston McKenzie is winless with an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Indians are 2-6 in McKenzie's road starts this season as the right-hander has not helped matters with a 6.75 ERA in these outings. The Blue Jays counter with Ross Stripling here and he has struggled since the All Star Break with a 7.60 ERA in his three starts. The Indians did see Stripling earlier this season so that is an edge for the hitters too as they are likely to fare better in the 2nd go round with the way his current form has been. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-04-21 | Braves v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Atlanta Braves @ St Louis Cardinals, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET – Yesterday the Braves jumped on Jon Lester for 6 runs in the first two innings and then incredibly not another run was scored in the game until the bottom of the 9th. Though the game stayed under as a result, look for tonight's to make up for it as both starting pitchers are likely to get tagged. JA Happ gets his first start for the Cardinals and it is unlikely the change of scenery to St Louis will be a miracle cure for the lefty. Happ just has not had it this season. He has a 6.77 ERA on the season and an 11.25 ERA his last 3 starts overall. The over is 13-6 in his 19 starts this season. Happ has a WHIP over 2.00 in his last 3 starts. The Braves also have a struggling hurler getting the call in this one. Drew Smyly only gave up 3 earned runs but 9 hits in just four innings in his most recent start. The over is 9-2 in his 11 road starts this season. Atlanta has scored 5 or more runs in 4 of last 5 games. The Cardinals had averaged 5 runs last 6 games before being shut down last night. The bats should wake up tonight. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-03-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
#916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The Blue Jays are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this one sets up well to be a complete mismatch. We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Toronto into the pick (-105/-110) range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout. Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu has been dominant with a 1.62 ERA over his last 4 starts. Now he finally gets a start at Rogers Centre in Toronto as, remember, the Blue Jays home games have just now resumed being played north of the border again. Toronto had won each of their first 3 games of this homestand before falling short in extra innings yesterday. With Ryu in top form and with the Jays having had won 4 straight games by a combined score of 28 to 6, the forecast is a rout in this one. The Indians Zach Plesac just has not been the same since he returned from injury and has allowed 15 hits in 11 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. Plesac's strikeout numbers are down and he has allowed a homer in each of his last 3 starts while Ryu has not allowed a home run in any of his last 4 starts. Cleveland was enduring a stretch of 18 losses in 27 games prior to getting the win in extra innings yesterday. 36 of 51 Indians losses by more than a single run margin this season. An incredible 89% of the Blue Jays wins have been by 2 or more runs this season as 48 of their 54 wins have been by 2+ runs. So with a Jays win likely, you can also see the odds are in your favor that a big win is likely as well! The Blue Jays last 18 wins have all come by a multi-run margin with an incredible average winning margin of 6.2 runs. Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more! We’ll back the Toronto Blue Jays on the run line early Tuesday evening. |
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET – The Rays Michael Wacha got hammered by the Mariners earlier this season. Wacha is off a good start versus the Yankees but he entered that outing having served up 8 homers over his last 4 appearances. Now he faces a Seattle team that hit him hard in June and, though off a low-scoring loss yesterday, had been rolling. Before the 4-3 loss yesterday, the Mariners had won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. The Rays bats also had been hot before a lackluster showing in yesterday's 3-2 win over the Red Sox. TB has won 9 of 12 games and scored an average of 6.3 runs in these dozen games. Tampa Bay will take advantage of facing a pitcher who is finally regressing to the mean. Chris Flexen has good numbers this season for the Mariners but he was getting better results than he deserved overall based on metrics. The over is 7-0 in his road starts this season and he is off back to back losses in which his strikeouts continue too low and he was hit hard and allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1 / 3 innings! The over is 3-0 the last 3 games between these teams when meeting in Tampa Bay. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-01-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -140 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this is a complete mismatch. We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Los Angeles into a manageable range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout. Los Angeles delivered an 8-3 win over the Diamondbacks yesterday. The Dodgers are now 29-12 in last 41 games against Arizona including 10-2 this season. This is a match-up of left-handers and the Diamondbacks are 6-19 in games against left-handed starters and the Dodgers are 19-11 in games against left-handed starters this season. Julio Urias starts for LA and is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his 3 starts against Arizona. Urias is 12-3 this season including 9-2 in road starts. Caleb Smith starts for Arizona and got crushed by the Dodgers 3 starts ago and allowed 3 homers in an ugly outing. Smith also enters this outing off another start (against the Cubs) in which he allowed 3 more homers! Arizona is 2-9 in his starts this season and the lefty has a 5.67 ERA on the year. The Dodgers last 6 wins over the Diamondbacks have come by a combined score of 58 to 19. Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more! We’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Sunday afternoon. |
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07-31-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET – Yesterday's game continued a trend of high-scoring games between these clubs as it was over the total by the 5th inning. The over is 6-1 in the 7 games between these teams this season. Not only that, going further back it is a 24-11-1 run to the over in the last 36 games. These rivals meet and the scoreboard lights up and we expect more of the same today. The Rays Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.31 ERA at home this season and the over is 10-5 in his 15 starts this year. In his last 3 starts against the Red Sox - all within the past 12 months - Yarbrough has allowed 15 earned runs in 14 and 1 / 3 innings. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 5 earned runs in 8 innings in his last two starts at Tampa Bay. Eovaldi's last road start was a good one against a depleted Yankees lineup two weeks ago. However, prior to this, Eovaldi had allowed 8 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings over two most recent road starts. Tampa Bay is 7-3 last 10 games and has averaged 6.4 runs per game in this stretch. The Rays lineup stays hot here. The Red Sox scored only 3 runs in defeat yesterday but entered the game on a 7-2 run with an average of 6.4 runs scored by Boston in the 7 wins. This total is in the 8 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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07-30-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – In theory, the White Sox should be able to hit Jean Carlos Mejia but Chicago just has not been hitting at all lately plus Mejia has a solid K:BB ratio and this is his first ever start against the Sox. In other words, advantage goes to the pitcher and this is particularly true when you consider that the White Sox have lost 6 of 8 games and scored an average of only 2.1 runs in those 8 games! As for the Indians bats, the likelihood here is plenty of struggles as Chicago's Lance Lynn continues to dominate. The veteran simply has phenomenal numbers and has been so consistent. Lynn has allowed only 1 earned run in each of his last 3 starts. Also, he is 10-3 with a 1.91 ERA this season. The White Sox, in Lynn's home starts, have had only one over in 11 games! 8 unders, 2 pushes, 1 over in the 11 home starts for Lynn! Each of Mejia's last 2 starts have been games for Cleveland that remained under the total. Mejia's high ERA is hiding the fact that he has recently been burned by some mistake pitches but pitching better than the overall numbers show. Again, he has a great strikeout to walk ratio and, right now, this struggling White Sox lineup does not seem to know how to even handle "mistake pitches". Look for this one to be a tight game with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-29-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET – The Dodgers Price has some good recent stats but he faced a Rockies team that ranks in the lower half of the majors for slugging percentage this season and that is despite playing their home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Giants Cueto, in his last two starts, also has faced weaker lineups - Cardinals and Pirates - that rank 10th and 15th in NL (out of 15 teams!) in slugging percentage. Now this match-up for these hurlers involves the #1 NL ranked slugging percentage team in the Giants and the #3 ranked team in the Dodgers. Cueto struggled last season against the Dodgers and Price will be facing a tall task here with facing a solid Giants lineup off an 8-0 loss yesterday. The Dodgers lineup really came to life yesterday and showed, even with Mookie Betts out, this team is still very dangerous at the plate. The Giants had won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in the 5 victories before yesterday's shutout loss to a dominating Walker Buehler. Though Price has been solid, this will be his toughest test since coming back into the rotation and he is still trying to get stretched out in terms of working deeper into games. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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07-27-21 | Brewers -132 v. Pirates | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -130 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Pirates have lost 5 of 7 games and are 7-18 against left-handed starters and have gone 11-26 in divisional games this season. Pittsburgh also just returned from a West Coast road trip. Both these teams were off yesterday and now today's match-up is a battle of southpaws as the Brewers come to town. Milwaukee is off a loss but had won 5 of 7 games prior to that defeat and the Brewers are 29-18 on the road and 27-17 in divisional games this season. Brett Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in his career against Pittsburgh and he is backed by a solid bullpen. The Brewers bullpen has been the best in baseball recently too. Last 7 days, last 15 days, last 30 days all find the Brewers at the top with the lowest bullpen ERA. The Pirates have been near the very bottom during all those time frames with one of the highest bullpen ERA's in the league. This sets up to be a mismatch in the later innings. Pittsburgh starter Tyler Anderson was solid against Milwaukee early this month but he entered that start 1-4 in his career against the Brewers. In his two starts since that July 4th outing, he has allowed 13 hits in 11 innings. The Pirates won that most recent meeting (July 4th) between these teams but that victory followed 6 straight dominating Brewers wins in this series by an average score of 7 to 3 (combined margin was 44 to 16). Our computer math model reflects a similar result this time and we could not agree more! We will grab the road team with the massive bullpen edge and overall team edges at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Milwaukee Brewers -130 |
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07-26-21 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 10 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, Monday at 8:10 PM ET – Both teams are off low-scoring results yesterday as the Twins lost 6-2 and the Tigers lost 6-1. Detroit entered that game averaging 6.5 runs as the Tigers had scored 52 runs in 8 games before yesterday's loss. Minnesota is 4-0 in home games against the Tigers this season and has scored an average of 7.5 runs in those 4 games. Even including a decent start for Matt Manning in his last road outing (coincidentally it was at Minnesota), the right-hander is 0-3 in road starts this season with an 8.56 ERA. Michael Pineda starts for the Twins here. The right-hander has respectable season numbers but he has allowed 8 earned runs on 18 hits in 9 and 1 / 3 innings in his last two home starts. Detroit had been scoring very well prior to yesterday and the bats should get rolling again here based on Pineda's recent home struggles. The Twins bats will resume their home success against the Tigers in their 2nd shot at him as they just faced him on July 9th. Manning had more success than anticipated in that one and his road struggles resume here as Minnesota takes advantage of a 2nd shot at him. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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07-25-21 | White Sox v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
#979/980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET – Brandon Woodruff has seen the O/U go 6-12 in his starts this season. Lance Lynn has seen the O/U go 5-10 in his starts this season. Woodruff has a 2.04 ERA and 0.83 WHIP on the year. The White Sox do not hit righties as well as lefties and also Woodruff has only made one start against them in his career so that is an edge for the pitcher as well. Lynn has a 1.94 ERA this season and enters this start in fine current form with a 1.42 ERA his last 3 starts. His last start against Milwaukee was 4 years ago so the Brewers certainly lack experience against him, so just like Woodruff, the edge goes to the pitcher over the hitters. Some recent over trending for each of these clubs helped move the total from a 7 to a 7.5 but that move helped give some more value to this play and the Brewers entered this series having scored only 1.8 runs over 5 most recent home games. Milwaukee has scored better in this series but has only averaged 7 hits per game in the first two games! Chicago has scored only 4 runs in its last 3 games! Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-24-21 | Rays -143 v. Indians | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
We recommend making this bet with ACTION on the pitchers in this one. Details as to why included here in the analysis: #917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -145 over Cleveland Indians, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Rays are going with a bullpen game so their starting pitcher may vary here but it is likely to be Drew Rasmussen. Originally Ryan Yarbrough was expected to make this start. With it setting up to be a bullpen game using a number of relievers (Rays historically very successful with this approach) we are not concerned with who makes the start. Also, with the Rays having won 11 of last 12 games against the Indians we also are choosing action on the Cleveland pitcher. It is expected to be Jean Carlos Mejia but regardless we are fading a Cleveland team that has lost all 5 games against Tampa Bay this season and 11 of last 12 overall against the Rays. Overall, the Rays have been the much hotter team as they have won 12 of 15 games since early July. The Indians have lost 15 of 22 games since late June. If Mejia does get the start, likely for Cleveland, he has a 7.53 ERA on the season and has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 5 outings. He is 0-5 in all his decisions since June 9th. We will grab the road team at, considering the long-term series edges, a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Tampa Bay Rays -145 |
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07-23-21 | Nationals v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – Washington has had only 1 under in the 7 games they have played since the All Star break. The Orioles have trended over with 10 of 12 games over the total the past two weeks. Besides the team trends here, this pitching match-up also looks great for a high-scoring game. Pat Corbin starts for the Nationals and he has a 7.31 ERA his last 3 starts and has been consistently rocked with 25 hits in 16 innings during this stretch. Corbin also walked 4 in his most recent start. The Nationals lefty has allowed 9 earned runs on 19 hits in less than 11 innings of work in his last two starts against the Orioles and that includes one this season. The Washington lineup also has already seen Baltimore's Jorge Lopez this season. The Orioles right-hander allowed 7 hits in just 5 innings in that start and, like Corbin, he also enters this start in poor current form. Lopez has a 6.75 ERA last 3 starts and has given up 22 hits in 13 and 1 / 3 innings! Washington has averaged 7.5 runs last 6 games. Baltimore has averaged 5.2 runs last 5 games. As for the bullpens this season the Nationals ERA ranks 19th and the Orioles ERA ranks 26th in the league. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of at least a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-22-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET – The most recent game between these teams went over the total and then they each had separate 2-game sets in which both games went over the total and now these bitter rivals meet again. Yankees confidence is growing with 4 straight wins plus New York has averaged scoring 7 runs per game in the last 3 victories. The Red Sox love hitting at home and enter this game swinging hot bats with 20 runs scored in their 2-game set with the Blue Jays. Boston will hit Jordan Montgomery better than they did in the Bronx. Montgomery held them to 3 earned runs in that one but now is on the road where he has a 5.32 ERA this season. Last season he was winless in his 4 road starts with a 7.27 ERA so this is nothing new for Montgomery. He has proven to struggle away from the Bronx. Fenway Park is not an easy place to pitch and Red Sox righty Tanner Houck has struggled in his limited action here thus far. Houck has allowed 14 hits in his 10 and 1 / 3 innings and certainly could be carrying much higher than the 4.35 ERA he has at Fenway Park this season. With the Yankees bats hot, this will be a tough start for Houck. The Red Sox bats will give Montgomery trouble too as he has a 5.91 ERA in his last 2 starts at Fenway Park. Boston averaged 6 runs a game in winning the first 7 meetings between these teams this season. Now the Yankees have taken 2 straight between the teams and are a confident group right now but Boston is tough at home and will resume the hot hitting that helped lead the way to a 7-0 run in games between these teams to start the season series. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-21-21 | Indians v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -120 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Astros got their bats going again in a big way in yesterday's 9-3 win. Houston is now 31-19 at home and 42-23 in night games this season. Cleveland, on the other hand, is barely above .500 on the season. Also, the Indians have lost 14 of 20 games. Cleveland sends a struggling Eli Morgan to the mound for this one. Morgan has a 7.86 ERA and has been hit at a .315 clip in his 6 starts in what is his rookie season. He has also allowed a homer in each of his starts including 2 homers in 3 of the 6 outings. Of course the Indians overall struggles and Morgan's struggles are a big reason Houston is a big money line favorite in this match-up. The value can be had on the run line here with -1.5 on the Astros available at about a -120 range as of early morning Wednesday. Houston holds big edges here in terms of team factors as well as starting pitching. The Astros Lance McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA this season and has been a model of consistency with 2 or fewer earned runs allowed in all but 3 of his 15 starts on the year and in 2 of those 3 outliers he only allowed 3 earned runs in each. McCullers has 26 strikeouts in 17 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts. While Cleveland has only 6 wins the last 20 games, the Astros have only 5 losses last 15 games! Two teams going opposite directions in recent weeks and Houston is going for its 7th straight win over Cleveland in 2021. 32 of the Indians 45 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. 46 of the Astros 58 wins have been by 2+ runs this season. This games has blowout potential written all over it and our math model reflects a comfortable win for the home team here. Morgan again gets hit hard while McCullers season-long domination continues. We’ll back the Houston Astros on the run line Wednesday evening. |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 Tuesday 9 PM ET - Game 5 results have pushed this Total to the highest it’s been in the entire series so we will bet the added value and Under. These two teams shot ridiculously well in Game 5 as both team hit over 55% of their field goal attempts. Those numbers are much higher than league average of 46.6% and are not sustainable, especially in this elimination game setting. The pace of play numbers have been consistent the last two games with 175 and 174 field goal attempts which is slightly lower than league average. These two combined for 98-points in the paint in Game 5 which is also well above the league standards so don’t expect that to happen again here. In this pressure packed game both teams are going to value every possession and our computers suggest a much slower pace in Game 6. The Under is now 6-3 the last nine meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee and that trend continues here. BET UNDER! |
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07-20-21 | Phillies -125 v. Yankees | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
#925 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -125 over New York Yankees, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - After back to back wins over their biggest rivals the Yankees could be flat here. The Red Sox had their number all season long and New York finally got some payback in the last two games. Overall, before these back to back wins, the Yankees were on an 18-25 run so their overall season continues to be disappointing. As for the road team in this one, the Phillies have been showing some positive signs for quite some time now. Philadelphia has won 10 of 14 games and also has a decided pitching edge on the mound in this one. Aaron Nola has dominated the Yankees with an 0.66 ERA and 21 strikeouts in less than 14 innings spanning his two starts against them and both of those outings have been in the past 12 months. Nola enters this outing with 31 strikeouts in 15 innings over his last 3 starts. Nola has had a few rough starts this season and that is why he does have his typical dominating low ERA numbers. However, the Yankees are one of the highest strikeout teams in the American League and Nola will prove for the 3rd straight time that this is not a good match-up for the New York lineup. As for Yankees starter Domingo German, he is having a rough season and went winless with a 7.27 ERA in his 6 starts in June. Working out of the bullpen in July, he has a 7.50 ERA in 3 appearances so far. He was matched up with Nola last month and German got crushed for 7 earned runs on 10 hits while the Phillies right-hander dominated. Our computer math model reflects a similar result this time and we could not agree more! We will grab the road team with the massive pitching edge on the mound at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Philadelphia Phillies -125 |
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07-19-21 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Baltimore, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Orioles are off of back to back wins but that had a lot to do with playing one of the worst teams in the American League. After facing Kansas City, now the Orioles are facing one of the majors' best teams in Tampa Bay. Prior to the back to back wins, the Orioles had lost 46 of 59 games. It has been another very rough season for Baltimore and now they face the Rays at Tampa Bay where the home team has taken 12 of the last 15 meetings. As for all the meetings this season, the Rays are a perfect 6-0 and 5 of the 6 wins were by a multi-run margin. The Orioles are starting Spenser Watkins and the rookie hurler has as many walks as strikeouts in his 2 starts this season. He has managed to escape major damage but now makes his first ever road start. Watkins faces a Rays team that has won 35 of 54 games and 43 of their 55 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. Ryan Yarbrough has an edge on the hill as the Rays are 4-1 in his 5 career starts against the Orioles. He compiled a 3.07 ERA in those starts and enters this start with a 2.81 ERA over his last 3 starts so he is in good current form. The Rays, overall, have won 8 of last 10 games and have scored 6.5 runs a game in the 8 victories! Blowout could be likely here because the Orioles have a knack for losing big. 48 of Baltimore’s 62 losses, including 15 of last 17, have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Tampa Bay 1st in AL and Baltimore 2nd to last in AL) as well, we’ll back the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line early Monday evening. |
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07-18-21 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET – Yesterday's game finished a 3-1 Cardinals win but 7 of 11 meetings heading into yesterday were games that went over the total. The pitching match-up today should get the bats going again in this one. Johnny Cueto has had a lackluster season overall and the veteran right-hander has particularly had it rough on the road this season for the Giants. Cueto has a 5.64 ERA in road starts and only 2 of the 6 outings resulted in an under. He faced the Cardinals right before the break and they got to him for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 6 innings on the mound. Seeing the Cardinals again and this time at St Louis will likely mean even more struggles for Cueto. The St Louis starter in this one is Wade LeBlanc. He struggled badly in his final start before the break and now has 6 walks and just 4 strikeouts over his last 2 outings. LeBlanc had a horrible April with the Orioles. Then, after coming to the Cardinals, the southpaw showed some early success but reality is quickly setting in and we will not hesitate to fade him here before the markets make an adjustment on him. San Francisco, before yesterday's loss, had won 5 straight games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. St Louis, prior to yesterday, had scored 5 or more runs in 4 of 6 games! The bats come back to life this afternoon for both clubs and plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of the above factors. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Saturday, 9:05 PM ET - I have to admit how hilarious the national media is and how they are so quick to overreact to the most recent or current events. After winning Games 1 and 2 of the series the pundits couldn’t stop praising the Suns and anointing them as the next NBA Champion. Those same “experts” are now saying the Bucks are two games away from winning the Finals. This series is 2-2 with the home team winning all four games and we are betting that trend continues here. The Suns were dominating at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and the 3rd best average margin of victory at +8.9PPG. Phoenix is 8-2 SU at home in the playoffs with an average differential of +9PPG. Phoenix is 17-5 AT their last 22 home games versus quality teams or teams with a winning record. The Suns have also covered 10 of their last fourteen games as a favorite. Phoenix is 9-2 SU at home when coming off a loss and we predict a bounce back here by the home team. |
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07-17-21 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET – Brandon Woodruff will be making his 10th road start of the season for the Brewers. Of the first 9 there was one push on the total, zero overs, and 8 unders! Woodruff has a 1.99 ERA and unreal 0.68 WHIP in his road starts this year. This game sets up to be another low-scoring duel with Luis Castillo of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander had some rough patches earlier this season but since then he has been lights out. Castillo had a 1.71 ERA in June and held opponents to a .173 batting average. So far in July he has a 2.41 ERA and has held opponents to a .169 batting average. After a very rough May, Castillo has been the strong pitcher we are used to seeing on the mound. Yesterday's high-scoring game and Castillo's ugly full season numbers are part of the reason this total moved to an 8 after opening at 7.5 runs. We are going to take advantage of the added value as these teams had gone under in 6 straight prior to yesterday's rare slugfest between the clubs. Both teams had been trending under all month long before yesterday's unusual result and now look for a strong start from these two hurlers and while the Reds do not have a strong bullpen like the Brewers do, Castillo is fully capable of going 7 innings here. That minimizes the Cincy bullpen usage. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of late morning Saturday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-16-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#929 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs (-130) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Mariners lost to the Angels Sunday in their final game before the all star break. This snapped a stretch of 3 straight wins for Seattle over LA plus a run of 5-2 last 7 meetings. One of those was a 1-run loss so having the Mariners at +1.5 runs in those 7 meetings would have netted one a tidy 6-1 record. This spot Friday looks like a great one for that run to be extended. Though an upset win is certainly possible here, having the extra 1.5 runs could prove to be a key. 3 of the Angels 5 most recent victories, prior to Sunday's big 7-1 win, had been by a 1-run margin. Chis Flexen continues to be a pleasant surprise on the mound for the Mariners. Despite not being a strikeout pitcher, Flexen continues to successfully pitch to contact and induce outs by avoiding hard contact. Seattle is 12-4 in Flexen's starts this season and he has an 8-3 record! In his past 5 starts he has a 1.38 ERA and allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of the 5 starts. Flexen has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 6 starts. Andrew Heaney starts for the Angels in this one. The southpaw allowed 3 homers at Seattle earlier this season. Heaney enters this start having surrendered 5 long balls in his last 3 outings and has a 9.42 ERA during this stretch. This is a strikeout mismatch as Heaney has been piling up strikeouts lately while Flexen is not. However, it is crystal clear who has been getting the better results and that continues here. Also, Trout still out for the Angels and even if Rendon and Upton come back for this game it would be hard to say either is 100% healthy at this point as each were out for for a while prior to the all star break. Bet the Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 220.5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks, 9 PM ET Game 4 - We like UNDER again in Game 4 and expect a lower scoring game when these two teams take the floor Wednesday night. We’ve seen a steady decline the scoring in the three games thus far as they scored 223 and 226 total points in the first two games then 220 in Game 3. Most importantly we’ve seen a decline in field goal attempts and a slower pace. In Game 1 these two attempted 176 combined shots, in Game 2 it was 181 then in Game 3 it was the lowest number yet with 173 field goal attempts. As this series goes on we expect the pressure to grow and less shots to go in. Both teams shot 48% in Game 3 but that percentage isn’t sustainable given both teams defenses. Both teams have been outstanding defensively in the playoffs allowing just 1.090-points per possession (Suns) and 1.071PPP (Bucks). Those numbers are drastically better than the season PPP they allowed during the regular season. Suns are 4-1 Under their last five coming off a loss, while the Bucks are 7-3-1 Under their last eleven home games. With more money and tickets coming in on the Over the line has not fluctuated and even ticked down a little. That’s an indication to bet UNDER! |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222 Phoenix Suns @ Milwaukee Bucks, Game 3 Sunday - The first two games crept Over the number but we expect a lower scoring game here. In fact, we lost our play on the Under in Game 2 but we had a great opportunity to win as a few meaningless fouls late pushed it Over the number. Both teams have shot relatively well in both games and the Suns were ridiculously hot in Game 2 from beyond the arc making 20 3-pointers. We do expect the Bucks to shoot better at home but not well enough to push this game Over the number. Giannis shredded the Suns on the interior last game with 42-points but that number isn’t sustainable either. These two teams have the best defensive efficiency numbers in the Playoffs allowing just 1.073PPP (Bucks) and 1.081PPP (Suns). Those numbers are dramatically lower than the season averages both allowed during the regular season. Milwaukee is playing significantly slower in the post-season than they did in the regular season with 5-less possessions per game in the Playoffs. The Suns were the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season and are averaging that same pace in the Playoffs. Phoenix played a couple deliberate or slower paced games on the road against the Clippers which resulted with 164 and 198 total points. With both of the games thus far going Over the number it’s strange the oddsmakers didn’t set this number higher than this which means they want us to bet Over. We won’t bite and like UNDER. |
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07-11-21 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
#915/916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – The White Sox bats have been red hot in this series but the Orioles bats should fare much better against Dylan Cease then they have against the other starters so far in this series. The White Sox right-hander had a solid start against the Orioles in late May. However, Cease is coming off a rough outing at Minnesota and has a 6.59 ERA in road starts this season. Cease has allowed 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 6 road starts. The over is 6-2 in his road starts this season. The White Sox bats should most definitely have another big day today. Chicago will be facing the Orioles Spenser Watkins. The Baltimore right-hander had a successful MLB debut versus the Blue Jays in his last start. However, he had more walks than strikeouts and also had only 8 swings and misses in the game. In other words, Watkins pitched to contact and was quite fortunate in that first start. In 2018, Watkins had a 5.11 ERA in his 5 starts above the single A level of the minors. Since then, at the AAA level, Watkins has a 6.67 ERA and in his last full season at the AAA level (2019), Watkins had a .326 BAA so he has a tendency to be very hittable! The ball is being put in play against Watkins and this White Sox lineup pounded the Orioles for 20 runs in the first two games of this series! O/U was 8-0 run in White Sox games before back to back unders preceded back to back overs in this series. The bats come alive again this afternoon and the Orioles get in on it with the big hits this time too. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of the above factors. This total is in the 10.5 range (after opening up at an 11 and we will gladly take the added value) and our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-10-21 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA PLAY ON Over 10 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – We successfully cashed the over in this match-up yesterday and are coming right back with it again today. The difference today is we expect both teams to get in on the big action at the plate. Baltimore, off a 12-1 loss yesterday, should fare much better against Lucas Giolito. The White Sox right-hander had a solid start against the Orioles in late May. However, Giolito is coming off a rough outing at Detroit and has a 5.18 ERA in road starts this season. The last time he started in Baltimore Giolito allowed 6 runs - 4 earned - in 6 innings. The over is 6-2 in his road starts this season. The White Sox bats should most definitely have another big day today. Chicago will be facing the Orioles Tom Eshelman. The Baltimore right-hander has a 9.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and the over is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. Eshelman continues to get hit hard and has trouble missing bats! He has struck out only 2 batters in nearly a dozen innings on the hill over his last three starts. The ball is being put in play against Eshelman and this White Sox lineup pounded the Orioles for 12 runs yesterday! O/U was 8-0 run in White Sox games before back to back unders preceded yesterday's blowout over. The bats come alive again tonight and the Orioles get in on it with the big hits this time too. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of the above factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-09-21 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – Jordan Lyles starts for the Rangers and has turned things around in a big way. He has allowed 3 earned runs in 13 innings in winning each of his last two starts. Lyles is also 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his 3 career starts against the A's. Oakland's bats have produced an average of only 3 runs in the last 8 games. The Rangers bats have been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of the last 4 games. Texas will be dealing with a pitcher who is on a tear as they must face Cole Irvin here. The left-hander has allowed just 2 runs in 15 innings over his last two starts and, overall, has led Oakland to wins in each of his last 3 starts! Only 19 of 52 night games for Oakland have been overs this season. Also 11 of 17 Irvin starts this season have been unders and that includes 5 of his 7 road starts. Athletics bullpen has been better on the road than at home and the Rangers bullpen has been better at home than on the road. Both pens have been respectable, if unspectacular, on the season. Also, over the last 15 days the bullpen ERA of these two teams ranks them each in the top 7 in the majors. That being said, the trending is certainly going the right way for both teams. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns, Game 2 Thursday 9 PM ET - We got a win with the Over in Game 1 of this series but now we feel these two teams stay Under with a much lower scoring game. These two combined for 223 Total points in Game 1 but it took 45% shooting by the Bucks and 16 of 36 3-point shooting or 44%. The Bucks 3-point shooting was well above their season average of 38.9%. Phoenix also had a hot shooting night by hitting 47% overall from the field and 32% from beyond the Arc. The Suns were also near perfect from the free throw line at 25 of 26. In Game 2 we expect a return to norm for both teams with each team's defenses stepping up. These two teams combined for just 176 field goal attempts in the opener which is around league average but again they had better than normal shooting nights. These two teams are ranked first and second in defensive efficiency in the Playoffs allowing less than 1.080-points per possesion. The betting indicators clearly support the Under here too as more money has flowed in on the Over, yet the line has dipped from 221.5 to 219.5 which tells us volumes. We expect a slightly slower pace, not as good of a shooting night and both defenses to improve from Game 1. The bet here is UNDER! |
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07-08-21 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – The Reds have been winning but certainly have not been a powerhouse at the plate recently. Cincinnati has seen the under cash in 11 of 14 games! Despite an overall winning run, Cincinnati had only 1 big game at the plate in those 14 games. Other than that, the Reds scored an average of 3.8 runs per game in the other 13 games. Cincinnati's pitching has been great with only 3.4 runs allowed per game in the last 14 games. This looks like a pitchers duel type of match-up. Adrian Houser did have a couple rough starts recently but he bounced back with a big effort in his last start. Overall, in his last 7 appearances of 5 or more innings he had the two rough starts but allowed a total of only 5 runs in the other 5 games! That included Houser dominating the Reds the last time he faced them. As for Milwaukee's bats, look for them to struggle against Tyler Mahle. The Reds right-hander last faced them on June 16th at Milwaukee and fanned 12 in 6 innings while allowing only 1 run on 3 hits! The Brewers have averaged 2.5 runs during the current 4 game stretch which has seen 3 unders and just 1 over. Mahle is 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA in 10 road starts this season. He is undefeated with a 2.28 ERA and a .199 BAA in his 8 night starts this season. The last two meetings between these teams at Milwaukee were 2-1 games and this looks like another tight one. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Thursday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Montreal Canadiens Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - The Lightning are on a 13-7 run in the playoffs but 4 of the 13 wins were by just a single goal. That means laying 1.5 goals with Tampa Bay in each of those games would have netted only a 9-11 record. The Canadiens are on a 12-5 run and 1 of the 5 losses was in overtime. That means at +1.5 goals in the last 17 games, Montreal would have a 13-4 record. That is why we're laying the price to have the benefit of having the +1.5 goals on the puck line. While Montreal certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice with a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup tonight. However, if the Canadiens do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -140 price in doing so) with road underdog Montreal is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one! Note that goalie Carey Price was fantastic in the crease in Game 4 to help the Canadiens fight off elimination and also give them momentum heading into this must win game. |
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07-07-21 | Red Sox v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels, 4:07 PM ET - The Angels have been without Mike Trout for some time now and also lost Justin Upton to injury June 23rd. Though Anthony Rendon recently got hurt, the Angels continue scoring runs and got 5 runs on 11 hits in last night's victory. Upton could be back today but, even if he is not, Los Angeles has averaged 6 runs per game and gone 7-2 last 9 games without him since June 23rd. In terms of slugging percentage, each of these teams rank in the top 8 out of all 30 MLB teams against left-handed pitching this season. Also, the Angels are one of the top slugging teams this season in home games and the Red Sox are one of the top slugging teams in the majors in road games thus far this season. Boston will certainly be happy to face anyone other than Shohei Ohtani who gave them trouble last night. Now the Red Sox take advantage of facing Andrew Heaney. The Angels lefty is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 starts. On the season Los Angeles is 12-2 to the over in his starts including 6-1 when Heaney is at home. The southpaw has a 6.16 ERA in his career against Boston. The Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez in this one and he has a 10.56 ERA in the two career starts he has made at Anaheim. Though he is off a strong start at Oakland, Rodriguez has a 5.56 ERA in his road starts this season and the under in his outing against the A's was just the 3rd in his 11 road starts this season. You can see why the Angels bats should stay hot here. As for the Red Sox bats, Ohtani (known for dominating at home) got the better of them yesterday, but Boston's hot hitting should resume here. The Red Sox had won 10 of 11 before yesterday's loss and have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch! That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors. This total is in the 9 to 9.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns OVER 218.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 218.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns, Game 1 Tuesday 9 PM ET - We are betting this unfamiliar territory for both teams is going to start fast and have some high energy throughout which is going to lead to a faster paced game and higher scoring output. Our computer simulator has played this matchup 10,000 times and the total projections it is producing is 222.3. These two teams were two of the highest points per possession offenses in the NBA ranking 5th and 6th in offensive efficiency. Playoff scoring is down for both teams but that is expected given the circumstances. The value in the number is obvious as these two teams played twice in the regular season and Vegas set Totals of 229 and 232. Thus far in the playoffs the Bucks and their opponents have had a Total of 219 or less just two times out of seventeen games. The Suns had a few low scoring games in their most recent series with the Clippers but even half of those games finished with more points than tonight’s Total and all of their games against Denver resulted in more than 218 total points. The Bucks screen-n-roll defense has been atrocious, and the Suns have been one of the best mid-range or pull-up shooting team in the playoffs. When these same two teams met in the regular season, they combined for 249 and 232 points (in regulation). Both have strong Over support in this scenario, and we see Game 1 ending with a higher total than projected. |
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07-06-21 | Reds v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
#979/980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – The under is perfect in the last 4 starts Luis Castillo has made. The Reds right-hander may not have his usual full-season numbers you would expect but he is certainly back in top form. Castillo has a 1.71 ERA in his last 4 starts and should dominate this struggling Royals team. Kansas City has lost 11 of 13 games and scored an average of 2.6 runs in the 11 losses. The Reds also have not been a powerhouse at the plate recently. Cincinnati has seen the under cash in 10 of 12 games! Despite an overall winning run, Cincinnati had only 1 big game at the plate in those dozen games. Other than that, the Reds scored an average of 3.5 runs per game in the other 11 games. Cincinnati's pitching has been great with only 3.2 runs allowed per game last dozen games. But this Cincinnati team has struggled to hit lefties this season and rank near the bottom of the majors in categories in terms of hitting southpaws. That is why we expect Kris Bubic to enjoy success. He has endured a very rough stretch on the road but has been a completely different pitcher at home where the Royals have gone 3-0 in his starts, he has allowed only 1 homer, and he has compiled a 2.94 ERA. Look for the 5th under in the last 6 meetings between these teams with a low-scoring battle this evening at Kauffman Stadium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 7 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-05-21 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 10 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 7:10 PM ET - Just like the weather in Minnesota, the bats will be hot on Monday! The O/U is 7-0 last 7 White Sox games and Chicago averaging 7.4 runs a game during this hot streak at the plate. The Twins off consecutive unders but the games did combine for 17 runs and the O/U was on 8-1 run in Minnesota's 9 games before these two most recent games barely stayed under the total. The O/U is 5-2-1 in Dylan Cease's 8 road starts this season. The White Sox hurler has a 6.08 ERA away from home on the year. The Twins O/U is 3-0 in Bailey Ober's last 3 starts and he has a 5.84 ERA in his 6 starts this season. The White Sox bats have been hot as we mentioned above and the Twins have scored 7 or more runs in 4 of last 5 home games. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-04-21 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels, 4:07 PM ET - The Orioles are facing a lefty today as Patrick Sandoval gets the start for the Angels. Baltimore is 2nd in the majors in both batting average (.276) and slugging percentage (.444) against southpaws this season! Those are very impressive numbers as only the Houston Astros rank better! Baltimore starts Tom Eshelman here. The Orioles right-hander has a 5.42 ERA in his career and a 6.57 ERA this season. In 83 MLB innings his BAA is .292 so opponents certainly have found him to be quite hittable. The Angels are averaging 6.5 runs per game last 6 games and have won 5 of 6 so they are "in the zone" right now. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a 5-1 run in Angels games. The Orioles have not had back to back games stay under the total since mid-June! That is a span of 3 full weeks and that trend looks likely to continue here after yesterday was a rare under. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA top play on 10* OVER 12 St Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies, 9:10 PM ET - Contrarian play here. This truly looks like a big number here because, even at Coors Field, recent games have been falling short of this number. However, this one has a different look to it and should result in plenty of runs scored as we have two pitchers likely to struggle here. Wade LeBlanc is with his 3rd team in 3 years and the southpaw has a 6.02 ERA in these 3 seasons including his limited action this year. He has an 8.68 ERA in his last 2 starts at Coors Field. This is unlikely to go well for him as the Rockies had won 4 straight games prior to yesterday's result and Colorado should pound LeBlanc as they bounce back from letting yesterday's game slip away and then getting blitzed in the top half of the 10th frame. Kyle Freeland starts for Colorado and he has a 6.54 ERA this season. In his 17 home starts from 2019 and 2020 he compiled a 7.11 ERA at Coors Field and has now struggled overall again this season. In two career starts against the Cardinals he has a 1.94 WHIP as he has been hit hard by St Louis. Also, Colorado's bullpen ranks dead last in the majors and the Cardinals bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack at 15th. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 12 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks, Saturday 8:30 PM ET - We are betting the defenses for both teams rise to the occasion and expect both offenses to struggle here. The Bucks put together a masterful performance without Giannis in the last game and got huge offensive contributions from Brook Lopez (14 of 18 shooting) with 33-points and 22-points from Bobby Portis Jr. Based on year long statistics those numbers will be extremely hard to maintain as both players averaged under 13PPG on the season. In fact, both teams shot well in the last game at 46% for the Hawks and 51% for the Bucks. We are betting this game reverts back to the form we saw in the previous two games played in Atlanta which ended with 198 and 215 total points. Atlanta on 4-0 Under run at home, Bucks Under 9-2-1 their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record. Even if both teams get their Superstars back in the lineup tonight, neither will be close to 100%. This potential elimination game will be a tight defensive affair, bet UNDER. |
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07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +119 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Montreal Canadiens Money Line (+120) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Friday at 8 PM ET - Montreal did everything but win on Wednesday! The Canadiens had 43 shots on goal compared to just 23 for the Lightning. Also, Tampa Bay was held to 0 for 3 on the power play as Montreal continued its stellar play on the penalty kill which has helped jettison their improbable playoff run to the Stanley Cup Finals. The only power play goal in the game came from the Canadiens and they were truly relentless in 5 on 5 hockey throughout the game as well. That is what led to the huge edge in shots on goal after Montreal got shell-shocked in Game 1 of the series. Yes, the Canadiens are down 2-0 in this series but the series now shifts to Montreal. The Lightning have lost each of their last two road games in this post-season. Also, the stonewall that is otherwise known as TB goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy seems to have the majority of his sub-par efforts on the road. Vasilevskiy was fantastic on home ice this season and certainly still respectable on the road but his goals against average was nearly a full goal higher (2.63 vs 1.75) in road games compared to home games. The fact that Montreal made some solid adjustments and controlled the game in many aspects Wednesday bodes well for what to expect from them tonight on home ice. 6 times in the regular season the Canadiens entered a game on home ice on a losing streak of at least 2 games. They only had one regulation loss in those 6 games. Of course we expect a solid regulation win here as Montreal enters this home game off back to back losses but if this is a tight game that goes to OT, note that the Canadiens have been great in OT (5-1) in this post-season. Carey Price has allowed 2 or less goals in 6 straight home games in this post-season! Per our computer math model, a solid home win in the forecast here with the projections reflecting another dominating effort (won Game 2 except on the scoreboard!) for the Canadiens as they drop the Lightning to 0-3 last 3 road games in this post-season. Bet Montreal Canadiens (+120) |
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07-02-21 | White Sox -146 v. Tigers | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#969 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox -145 over Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Tigers have played better of late but they have really struggled against the White Sox in recent years and this season has been no different. Also, Detroit is 16-25 in divisional games this season while Chicago is 27-12 in AL Central games. The White Sox enter this game winners of 4 straight and they hand the ball to Lance Lynn. He is 7-3 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP this season! Lynn is off of a start Saturday that was shortened to 3 innings due to weather but he looked to be back in top form after some hiccups in recent starts. Facing the Tigers should help him maintain that top form as he has held them to just 1 earned run in each of his last 2 meetings with them while totaling 16 strikeouts in 13 innings. The Tigers are 0-4 in the 4 career starts Casey Mize has made against the White Sox. He allowed 3 homers against them when he matched up with Lynn 4 weeks ago and he was fortunate that they were all solo shots as the damage could have been much worse. The Tigers 5.07 bullpen ERA ranks as the worst in the AL while the White Sox 3.98 bullpen ERA ranks 6th. The White Sox are 29-9 last 38 games (including 8-2 this season) against the Tigers and our computer math model reflects a road blowout is likely here. We will grab the road team with the pitching edge on the mound at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Chicago White Sox -145 |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Thurs July 1st 8:30 PM ET - The line on this game obviously tells us who Vegas wants everyone to bet and that’s the underdog Hawks, but we won’t bite. Milwaukee loses 2-time MVP Giannis to a knee injury in the last game, yet the Bucks are still favored at home. We’ve seen this time and time again and most recently in the last game of this series, when a team loses a Super Star, a role player steps up. In Game 4 the Hawks were without Trae Young and Lou Williams stepped up for the injured star with 21-points on 7 of 9 shooting along with dishing out 8-assists. The Bucks still have capable weapons in Jrue Holliday and Khris Middleton and in this situation we expect one of them to step up in the absence of Giannis and have a big game. The Bucks got off to a slow start again in Game 4 but expect them to play much better at home were they were 26-10 SU during the regular season with a +7.7PPG differential. In the playoffs the Bucks have the 4th best overall average point differential at +5.5PPG and they have won 12 of 18 home games this season when coming off a loss. The contrarian bet here is to take the Bucks. |
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07-01-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
#923/924 ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Texas Rangers @ Oakland A's, 3:37 PM ET - This play is all about the value. Yesterday's match-up featured two starting pitchers in great current form and yet the total was also 8 just like this one. It stayed under the total easily but now today you have Dane Dunning getting the start for the Rangers. He is 0-4 in his 7 road starts this season with a 7.45 ERA. In 13 innings over his last 3 starts (2 of which were at home where he is normally better) Dunning has allowed 22 hits plus walked 6. Dunning is lucky his ERA has not been even higher than the 6.23 ERA he has over those last 3 starts. His current form is very poor and now he faces an Oakland team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game in winning 3 of last 4 against the Rangers. Texas also should enjoy some success at the plate in this one. Prior to being held to just 1 run in yesterday's game the Rangers had scored an average of 6 runs per game in winning 6 of 8 games. So the Texas bats have been better recently and though Oakland's Sean Manaea has some solid numbers again this season, he has given up 18 hits in his last 14 innings over his last 3 starts against the Rangers. Also, in his most recent home start this season, Manaea allowed 9 hits in less than 6 innings. Texas has a .433 slugging percentage against lefties the last 15 days and .447 slugging percentage versus southpaws the last 7 days. Both are very solid figures and the Rangers may surprise some with success against Manaea here while Dunning and a sub-par Texas bullpen should get pounded here. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 8 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +1 over LA Clippers Game 6 Wednesday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 5 but it came at a herculean price as starters logged exhausting minutes which makes them a “play against” here. Paul George put up a huge 41-point night, but the minutes are starting to add up. George has played more minutes than anyone in the post season and it’s not even close. Marcus Morris Sr. had a great game last time out but at times looked like he could barely job back defensively. The Clippers as a whole shot 55% which is well above their season average of 48.2%. As a team the Suns shot 45% in the last game after shooting just 39% and 36% in the previous two games. Phoenix opened this series with 55% and 50% games. Phoenix is 18-7 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 6. |