Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-11-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -129 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -130 over St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The Brewers Freddy Peralta is off a rough outing but it was on the road and, throughout his career, he has been a much better pitcher at home compared to on the road. Peralta's numbers in Milwaukee are, in fact, extremely impressive. In his career Peralta is 12-3 at home with a 3.12 ERA! Opponents are hitting just .123 against him at Miller Park this season and he held opponents to a .160 batting average in his home outings last season! In 2019 they hit just .220 against him and in his rookie campaign of 2018 they hit just .123 against him - both of those stats in his home outings. He'll be opposed by Kwang Hyun Kim here. The Cardinals right-hander was horrible in spring training and there has been some carry over into the regular season. Kim only lasted 4 innings in his most recent start and though he held the Mets in check he had more walks than strikeouts. Also, 2 of his other 3 starts were against a Phillies team that has been, overall, struggling at the plate early this season and yet Kim gave up 4 earned runs on 12 hits in only 8 innings of work. Also, Peralta has not started against the Cardinals since April of 2019 so this gives him an edge over the hitters as they have not seen him in a while. Kim, on the other hand, faced the Brewers twice in September and based on his current form Milwaukee will enjoy a lot more success in this rematch. St Louis took the first meeting this season but the Brewers took the next two by a combined score of 18 to 8 and now they get this series in Milwaukee! This one will be all Brewers per our computer math model. We will grab the home team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet MILWAUKEE -130 |
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05-10-21 | Avalanche -107 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche -105 over Vegas Golden Knights at 10:05 PM ET - This is a huge game to determine the winner of this division. There are still some games to follow (2 for the Avalanche and 1 for the Golden Knights) but the winner of this game is absolutely in the drivers seat for the division and, potentially for home ice throughout the post-season. In other words, this is a huge game! The last time these teams met Vegas was a -140 favorite and this time the line is a pick'em. The difference? The Avalanche were without Donskoi, Rantanen, and Grubauer when the Golden Knights got the 5-2 win less than 2 weeks ago. All 3 of those guys are now back in the lineup for Colorado. Also, we are aware of the MacKinnon injury (questionable) for the Avalanche but this is offset by Pacioretty's questionable status for Vegas in this one. The biggest key is the Avs now having those 3 other players back including goalie Grubauer. While he is unquestionably the #1 netminder for the Avalanche, the Golden Knights once again enter a post-season with uncertainty in the crease. Will it be Fleury or Lehner? This is already impacting tonight's game because it is Lehner's turn in the rotation but he has been a little shaky in recent appearances. So does Fleury then get the start? How will this impact the mindset? Goaltenders are known for liking routine and consistency. This will be interesting tonight for Vegas and revenge-minded Colorado has no such questions entering this game. The Avalanche have outshot the Golden Knights in 4 of the last 5 games and have had a shot edge of 10 shots per game in those contests. They are out to prove they are the top team in the West and we look for them to do just that tonight as there is a reason the Golden Knights are on home ice and yet are priced as a pick'em in this game. The sharp money will be on the road team in this one and that should prove to be the right bet in convincing fashion in this one as we expect Colorado to play one of its best games of the season! Take the AVALANCHE |
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05-10-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 125-146 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over San Antonio, 8:30 PM ET - The Spurs are fighting for their playoff lives but the Bucks still have an outside shot at the #1 seed in the East. Milwaukee has gotten it going with a five-game winning streak which includes a pair of wins over the Brooklyn Nets. Milwaukee is 19-14 SU on the road this season, but they have the 2nd best average margin of victory in the league at +5PPG. In their last seven road games the Bucks average MOV is +11.2PPG. The Spurs last home game came against the 76ers and they were a +10-point dog in that game and the difference in this number is too high. San Antonio is 13-20 SU at home this season with the 24th worst differential at minus -3.1PPG. These two teams have similar defensive numbers but the Bucks #1 scoring, 3rd best shooting is far superior to the Spurs offense that ranks 20th in PPG scored and is 20th in FG%. The Spurs 2-5 losing ATS home streak continues here. |
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05-10-21 | Reds v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, Monday at 6:35 PM ET – The Reds have scored a total of only 6 runs in 4 games. Yesterday's game was rained out and, prior to Saturday's 9-2 loss going over the total, Cincinnati games were on a run of just 1 over in 5 games. The Reds have scored 3 or less runs in 6 of 8 games. The Pirates also have been struggling at the plate. Pittsburgh had a rare high-scoring win yesterday but this was after 6 straight unders. The Pirates scored only 8 runs total in those 6 games! The Reds start Tyler Mahle in this one. He has a 1.29 ERA on the road this season. Mahle has pitched 11 scoreless innings while allowing only 8 hits and striking out 10 in his last two starts at Pittsburgh. The Pirates start Mitch Keller. Though his numbers on the season do not impress, Keller is off an excellent start at San Diego and should enjoy success against the Reds. Keller has struck out 20 in 13 innings over his 3 starts against Cincinnati. The last time Keller hosted the Reds he gave up only 1 earned run in 6 innings while fanning 9! The Reds are hitting .201 on the road this season and that ranks Cincinnati dead last in the majors. Pittsburgh has a .346 slugging percentage overall which ranks the Pirates dead last in the majors. Runs will be hard to come by on a cool evening at PNC Park for this one. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-09-21 | Knicks +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +7.5 over LA Clippers, 3:30PM ET The Knicks have been a great surprise this season and will be a dangerous draw come playoff time. The Clippers are one of a few teams that can certainly win it all this season. New York has the 13th best road differential in the NBA at +0.4PPG even though they have a losing overall record. They have rewarded their backers with a current 11-3 ATS run their last fourteen road games. New York has also been solid off a loss recently with a 4-1 ATS streak. New York relies on their defense which is one of the best in the NBA allowing just 1.081-points per possession on the road this year, 3rd best in the NBA. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers are 26-9 SU at home this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +8.5PPG but winning by that margin will be tough today. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS their last six games as a favorite, 3-3 SU. The Clippers are off a big win over the Lakers and New York is off a bad loss. Grab the points with New York. |
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05-09-21 | White Sox -139 v. Royals | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
#967 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox -140 over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Royals have lost 7 straight games and scored an average of only 2.6 runs per game in those 7 defeats. Incredibly, the lone run that Kansas City scored yesterday is the only run they have scored in their last 3 games combined! KC has given up an average of 7 runs per game last 7 games as they have been outscored 49 to 18 last 7 losses. The Royals start Mike Minor here. He is a combined 3-7 with a 5.44 ERA the last two seasons combined. Minor faced the White Sox earlier this season and was fortunate to allow only 1 earned run as he walked 3 plus gave up 4 hits for 7 base runners in a start lasting only 4 innings. The White Sox enter this game having won 6 of 9 games and have scored an average of 7.8 runs in the 5 most recent victories. Chicago is starting to get their bats going as they exploded in the first inning of yesterday's game too. The White Sox have a big pitching edge in this one with Lucas Giolito on the mound. He is 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP against the Royals in his career. Giolito is off a tough luck loss to the Indians in his most recent start and his long-term dominance of KC, as well as the Royals recent struggles, should combine to allow him to get right back into the win column with another dominating effort. Giolito has piled up 41 strikeouts in his 30 and 2 / 3 innings this season. This one will be all White Sox per our computer math model. We will grab the road team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet CHICAGO WHITE SOX -140 |
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05-08-21 | Nets -4 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4 over Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - The first aspect of this game that grabbed our attention was the line. Consider this, why are the Nuggets this big of a home dog and why is Brooklyn laying the same spread as they were in Dallas a few nights ago? The answer is obvious, they want us to bet Denver and we won’t fall into that trap. In fact, it’s showing in the betting markets as more money and tickets have come in on the Nuggets yet the line has fluctuated up slightly. Brooklyn is in a battle in the East with Milwaukee for the best overall record and come into this game having lost four straight games which gives us extra motivation here. The Nuggets on the other hand are in a bad scheduling situation as they are off a HUGE game last night with Utah and now play without rest in the higher altitude of Denver. Brooklyn as a small favorite has been “money” this season with a 11-2 ATS record when laying 4.5 or less points. Denver on the other hand has struggled as a small dog in this same price range with a 4-8 ATS record. Denver has a long list of injuries to key contributors which makes playing without rest that much more difficult. Granted the Nets don’t have Harden yet but they still have Kyrie and KD which will be more than enough to get this much need road win by a decent margin. Bet the Nets with confidence! |
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05-08-21 | Red Sox -132 v. Orioles | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
#919 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -130 over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - The Red Sox are 7-3 this season against left-handed starters and a fantastic 10-4 in road games. The Orioles are just 4-11 in home games as Baltimore has been a better road team than home team this season. In fact, if you just played the road team in all of the O's games so far this season you would be 22-10 on the year. Per our computer math model, this is another good spot for a road win as Baltimore has a rookie southpaw, Zac Lowther, making his first ever MLB start. He is facing a Red Sox team that leads the majors in runs scored, batting average, and slugging percentage! The Orioles, on the other hand, are averaging just 3.4 runs per game at home this season and will struggle with Garrett Richards here. Not only did he look better in his 2nd start against Baltimore thai season, after a very rough season debut against them, he also has now rounded into top form. Richards wants his revenge here against the Orioles and he enters this start having allowed only a .214 batting average while going undefeated with a 1.64 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. In his last two road starts he has been particularly dominant as he has struck out 17 while walking just 1 in 12 innings of work. This one will be all Red Sox per our computer math model. We will grab the road team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet BOSTON -130 |
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05-08-21 | Sabres +1.5 v. Penguins | Top | 0-1 | Win | 135 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Sabres Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Pittsburgh Penguins, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET - The Sabres won the first two starts that Michael Houser made in goal for Buffalo. Then he and his Sabres teammates had an awful game in Thursday's 8-4 final. As a result, the line on Saturday's game is offering a rare "plus plus" opportunity as you can get Buffalo +1.5 goals and also plus money! The current line sits as high as +1.5 +140 as of about two hours before puck drop and we are stepping in on this one because we have confirmation that the Penguins are starting Maxime Lagace. He has a 3.92 GAA in his NHL career of 17 games (15 starts) and we feel Pittsburgh will try to prevent opportunities in front of the inexperienced netminder. At the same time the Sabres will want to hold the fort at the other end after they (and Houser) were embarrassed on Thursday. That said, this game could be a bit tight and certainly should be much lower scoring than the Thursday game. That means getting the goal and a half at plus money with a relaxed Sabres team playing with no pressure and wanting to end their season on a high note is absolutely the way to go here the way we see it. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and getting solid plus money in doing so) with road underdog Buffalo is the big value play here. |
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05-07-21 | Spurs v. Kings OVER 225 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on: Over 225 San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings, 10:10 PM ET - This game has huge playoff implications for both teams as they battle for a top 10 spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio is coming off several lower scoring game but the last three games have come against two of the top three defensive teams in the NBA (Utah & Philadelphia). Now the Spurs face a Kings team that is last in the league in defensive efficiency and 28th in points allowed per game at 118PPG. Sacramento is going to score too in this game with the 11th highest scoring offense in the NBA at 114PPG. The Kings are also the 9th fastest paced teams in the league so they’ll get plenty of shots up in this contest. These two teams met in March and totaled 226 and 247 total points in the two games and the numbers set on those games were both above 230. The Spurs are on a 5-1 Over run overall and have played to the Over in 4 straight versus a team with a losing record. The Over is also on a 5-1 run when these two teams have met in Sacramento. This will be a higher scoring game with both teams getting to 115 or more. BET OVER |
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05-07-21 | Reds v. Indians -140 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON Cleveland Indians -140 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Indians have won 5 straight games and have the home field edge here. The Reds are 4-8 in road games this season. Cleveland has a 2.54 bullpen ERA to rank 2nd in the majors. Cincinnati has a 5.59 bullpen ERA to rank 2nd to LAST in the majors! The Reds do hit well at home but their bats do not travel well. Cincinnati is hitting .202 on the season in road games and that ranks dead LAST in the majors! Wade Miley gets the start for the Reds here and has a low ERA this season but struggled (again!) against the Indians earlier this season. Miley is 1-4 with a 4.95 ERA in his 8 career starts versus Cleveland. The Indians start Zach Plesac in this one and he appears to have turned the corner after a tough start to the season. His recent positive trending is no fluke as it has corresponded with an uptick in velocity. Plesac appears healthy again and back on track and throwing like we are use to seeing him throw. Plesac allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in 13 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts. He is 7-3 in home games in his career and was solid in 2 of his 3 home starts this season plus compiled a 2.08 ERA in his 3 home starts in last year's shortened season. With the home/road variance making this a strong play on Plesac and a strong play against the Reds plus the added bulpen edge as well, this spot makes the hosts well worth an investment. We will grab the home team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet CLEVELAND -140 |
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05-06-21 | Nets -3 v. Mavs | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - The Nets are off 3 straight losses, two of which came against the Bucks in Milwaukee. Brooklyn is a team capable of winning it all this season with or without James Harden and we can’t say the same for Dallas. The Mavs have put together a very good season overall but this is a great spot to play against them. Dallas is coming off a solid road win in Miami where they shot ridiculously well at 53% overall and made 22 of 48 3-pointers. We expect a return to their season averages of 47% overall and 36% from beyond the arc. Dallas is just 4-5 SU their last nine home games and have the 19th worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -1.1PPG. Brooklyn on the other hand have the 9th best road point differential in the league at +2.5PPG. The Nets are 14-8 SU this season off a loss and we like them to get a 6+ point win here. |
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05-06-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Islanders | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 10* New Jersey Devils Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - The Islanders have a great home record this season but how motivated can they be here? They really can not catch the #1 or #2 spot in the division and being #3 or #4 does not matter so much when you do not even know who will be #1 or #2 in the division. The playoff match-ups are a complete unknown in the East right now is the point. That said, this is an Isles team that has lost 8 of 13 games. Also, the Islanders have only 5 wins by more than a single goal margin in last 14 victories. The odds of a Devils outright upset or at least of New Jersey staying within 1 goal here are quite strong as you can see. The Devils enter this game having won 4 of 5 games and the loss that preceded this recent winning stretch was a defeat by just a single goal. This one likely goes down to the wire as the Devils continue to play loose and relaxed pressure-free hockey as they know they are not making the playoffs. The Islanders recent struggles continue. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and only laying small juice to do so) with road underdog New Jersey is the value play here. |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 4:05 PM ET - We fell just short with this play yesterday but will come right back with it today. Even after a sub-par performance at the plate yesterday, the Nationals lead the NL with a .288 batting average against left-handed pitchers. Braves southpaw Drew Smyly gets the start here. Though he had a successful outing against the Nationals earlier this season, his current form is definitely trending the wrong way. Smyly has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts. Washington starter Jon Lester will be making just his 2nd start of the season. Though he had a solid 5-inning performance in his first start this season, Lester did record only 1 strikeout in his 5 innings. Atlanta enters this game having scored at least 5 runs in 4 of the last 5 road games. The Braves have a .264 batting average and .500 slugging percentage in night games this season. Both of those marks lead the NL! Considering that plus the Nationals being #1 in the National League for batting average against lefties and you can see why this one should be a high-scoring match-up. Though Washington's bullpen has been solid, too many innings may be expected of them here as Lester has averaged about 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start in his last 9 MLB starts. As for the Atlanta bullpen, the relievers have struggled this season on the road in particular and also the Braves pen has a 5.56 ERA last 5 games. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-05-21 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 227.5 | Top | 103-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Phoenix Suns vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:10 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off a game against the Blazers and those two teams produced 237 total points. Prior to that game the Hawks had some lower scoring contests but a few of those games came without Trae Young, their leading scorer in the lineup. Atlanta has given up more than 114 points in 3 of their last four games and 126+ in two. The Phoenix Suns are clicking offensively right now with 118 or more points in five of their last six games. Over the course of their last five games the Suns have the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.247-points per possession. Phoenix is on a 4-0 Over streak their last four road games, while the Hawks have rewarded Over bettors with an 19-7 streak when a home dog. Both offenses will get it going here with these two teams combining for 230+ points |
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05-05-21 | Canadiens v. Senators OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5.5 Goals – Ottawa Senators vs Montreal Canadiens, Wednesday at 7 PM ET – The Canadiens are still working to clinch a playoff spot but the Senators have shown no quit at home. Montreal has allowed 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 road games. The Canadiens have won 3 straight games and scored 5 goals in one of those victories. Ottawa has shown absolutely no quit and the Senators have won 7 of 10 games. Ottawa has averaged 3.6 goals in the 7 wins but Montreal seeking revenge here for a 4-0 shutout loss in the most recent meeting between these teams. Per our computer math model, the Senators continue to be ultra competitive here but struggle to stop the revenge-minded Canadiens and the result is a game that gets over the very favorable total here of 5.5 goals. Take the OVER here |
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05-05-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 8.5 Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals lead the majors with a .305 batting average against left-handed pitchers. Braves southpaw Max Fried gets the start here as he returns from a hamstring injury. Fried is having a rough season thus far and that includes an ugly start at Washington 4 weeks ago. In that outing he was also opposed by the Nationals Erick Fedde and both pitchers got hit hard. We expect similar results here. Not only are the Nats pounding southpaws this season, the last two times Fried has pitched at Nationals Park he has allowed 5 earned runs in each start even though he lasted just 2 and 2 and 1 / 3 innings, respectively, in those two starts. Fedde has been pitching better since struggling against the Braves 4 weeks ago but Atlanta has been a nemesis of his. Fedde is winless in 4 career starts against the Braves and has a 12.85 ERA in those outings. The O/U is a perfect 4-0 in those outings. Indeed, when Fedde starts against Atlanta there has never been an under. We do not see that changing here. Fedde is off a quality start in his most recent outing but that was his first quality start (6 or more innings, 3 or less earned runs) of the season. The Braves have a .273 batting average and .514 slugging percentage in night games this season. Both of those marks lead the majors! Considering that plus the Nationals being #1 in the majors for batting average against lefties and you can see why this one should be another high-scoring match-up just like the first one between these starting pitchers this season. Though Washington's bullpen has been solid, too many innings may be expected of them here as Fedde prone to early exits when facing the Braves. As for the Atlanta bullpen, the relievers have struggled this season on the road in particular and also the Braves pen has a 6.80 ERA last 5 games. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-04-21 | Kings v. Thunder UNDER 228 | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228 Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We will start with the number that has been set on this game. Consider this, the Kings just played the Mavericks and Vegas set a similar Total on that game. Let’s compare the Mavericks and Thunder and see why this number is set too high. The Mavs are 8th in offensive efficiency, the Thunder are LAST. Defensively, the Mavs and Thunder are 20th and 21st in DEFF so equal. The Thunder score just 105.4PPG on the season which ranks 28th. The Kings on the other hand are 11th in scoring and 11th in OEFF but a lot of their offensive success has come with PG De’Aaron Fox and his 25.2PPG and 7.2APG on the court who is out tonight with an injury. Sacramento is averaging 88.4 field goal attempts per game (about league average) but in their last six games they have averaged just 82.5FGA per game. The Kings had an aberration against the Jazz when they allowed 154 points but in 3 of their last four games, they’ve allowed 106 or less. Looking at OKC’s last ten teams we see 7 games where they scored 109 or less points, three of which they did not reach 96. 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams in OKC have resulted in an Under. |
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05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from the other day when the Bucks beat the Nets at home 117-114. The Bucks got 49-points from Antetokounmpo in the win while Brooklyn relied on Kevin Durant who scored 42. The difference was a bad shooting night by the Nets as they hit just 43% from the field while the Bucks shot 49%. Obviously, there was that big of a discrepancy in shooting, yet the Bucks only won by 3-points. Brooklyn is the BEST shooting team in the NBA at 49.2% so expect a return to normal tonight. The Nets are 7-3 ATS their last ten as a road dog and have covered 4 of their last five following a loss. As a favorite of 7-points or less the Bucks are 10-17 ATS this season, the Nets as a dog in that same price range are 10-6 ATS. Kyrie Irving had a relatively quiet night the other night and we expect a much better showing from him and the Nets here. Bet the revenge minded Nets. |
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05-04-21 | Brewers v. Phillies -144 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -145 over Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - When lines first came out on this match-up they were as high as -190 and now, as of mid-day Tuesday, the line is down to a -145. Part of the reason for that is suspension of Phillies reliever Alvarado and the questionable status of Bryce Harper for this game. But the Phillies have a huge edge pitching edge here with Aaron Nola over Eric Lauer. There is some additional value here because Lauer showed an impressive stat line in his start against the Dodgers and that was his first of the season. However, Lauer gave up harder contact than you see from just glancing at a box score and this is a guy who struggled badly in spring training. Also, last season was his first with the Brewers and the lefty went winless with a 13.09 ERA in his 4 appearances - 2 starts. Lauer's last full season in the majors was 2019 and he had a 5.99 ERA on the road. The year before was his rookie season and opponents hit .297 against him in road outings The Phillies Nola, on the other hand, is a proven starting hurler known for dominating at home. He now has a combined 29-10 record in his home starts since 2017. Here are Nola's earned run averages at home starting with this season and back to 2017: 1.37, 2.50, 2.91, 2.34, and 2.98. This is amazing consistency and, indeed, Nola is a model of consistency year in and year out when he is on his home mound. He gives the Phillies a huge starting pitching edge here and, with Vince Velazquez giving the Phillies 6 innings last night, the bullpen is in decent shape for this one even without Alvarado. Also, the last home start for Nola was a 9-inning shutout. This is a mound mismatch and Philadelphia is 10-6 at home this season. The Brewers have been a solid road club early this year but the pitching factor is too much for them to overcome in this one. We will grab the home team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet PHILADELPHIA -145 |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -2 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2 over Portland Trailblazers, 8:10 PM ET - There is no denying the Blazers are clicking right now but this is a great spot to fade them due to scheduling. Not only is Portland coming off a BIG win yesterday over Boston, they are playing their 5th game in seven days. Atlanta though had a day off and were at home the previous game so they are rested and didn’t have to travel. The Hawks are 9-3 ATS when playing with 1 day rest. If you look at the Hawks recent games they played several without Clint Capela, Trae Young or both but they are in the lineup tonight. Atlanta has won and covered 5 straight at home with quality wins against the Bucks, Pacers and Heat. Atlanta is 13-3 ATS their last 16 as a home favorite and they get a solid home win here. |
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05-03-21 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 8.5 Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET - The Twins last 5 games have all totaled double digits in runs. The O/U, as you would expect given that information, is a perfect 5-0 in this stretch. Those 5 games averaged 12.8 runs per game and all signs point to another high-scoring game here. Texas has scored an average of 5.2 runs per game on the road this season. The Twins have scored an average of 8.8 runs per game overall last 4 games. Rangers starter Dane Dunning has a 10.57 ERA in his last two starts. Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda has a 9.69 ERA in his last 3 starts and has been hit hard. 23 hits (including 6 homers) against Maeda in 13 innings in his last 3 starts combined. In 13 road games this season for Texas, only 4 have resulted in an under. The Rangers bullpen has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Dunning is averaging slightly less than 5 innings per start. The road struggles of the Texas bullpen could be on display early in this one as you can see based on that. With the Twins Maeda also in very poor current form, we look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-03-21 | Bruins -1.5 v. Devils | Top | 3-0 | Win | 115 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals +115) over New Jersey Devils, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Devils took advantage of a struggling Flyers team that stumbled down the stretch and that is why New Jersey enters this game winners of 3 straight games. The Devils face a much different animal now and lets not forget that New Jersey had lost 10 straight games before that 3-game run versus Philadelphia. Now the Devils take on a Bruins team that is still fighting hard to make sure they secure a playoff berth. Also, Boston has been getting healthier of late and this is a Bruins team which has won 3 straight games and 9 of 11. Each of Boston's last 8 wins have come by a multiple goal margin. The average margin of the 8 Bruins wins was exactly 3 goals. Here we just need a win by 2 or more goals and this will be a road team in a blowout per our computer math model as Boston makes it 9-0 L9 wins in terms of those coming by a multi-goal margin. 9 of the Devils last 11 losses have come by a multi-goal margin and this one shapes up to be all Bruins! Laying the 1.5 goals (and not having to lay any juice to do so) with road favorite Boston is the value play here. |
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05-02-21 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 211 | Top | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 211 Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 pm ET - This number is surprisingly low and our computer math model is calling for 218 or more total points. These same two teams have already met twice this season and they had totals higher than this number of 213.5 and 216.5 and they went Over in both those games. Miami and their opponents have totaled 212 or more points in 4 of their last five games and are on a 5-0 Over streak. Charlotte got LaMello Ball back last night who pushes the pace for the Hornets and gives them an added scoring option they’ve missed recently. When playing without rest the Hornets are 6-7 Over this season but those games have averaged 220PPG. These two teams are in the bottom half of the league in both pace of play and scoring but let’s not forget league average of NBA games is around 222PPG and this number is well below that. The Over has cashed 4 straight times in this series, make it 5 after today. |
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05-02-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-13 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
#921 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Kansas City Royals +1.5 runs (-120) over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Royals have been a pleasant surprise early this season while the Twins have been a big disappointment thus far. Kansas City is 16-9 while Minnesota is 9-16 and the Twins are over-priced in this spot. We like the added insurance of having the +1.5 runs at a very low price here in the event Minnesota does manage to get a tight one-run win here but this spot definitely favors the Royals. The last two times Brad Keller faced the Twins he has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs on only 8 hits in 14 innings of work. The last two times Jose Berrios faced the Royals he allowed 4 earned runs in each outing plus walked 4 in each start and he did not make it out of the 6th inning in either start. Berrios has not been overly impressive early this season and allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent home start and did not even make it out of the 5th inning in that one. Keller, on the other hand, has gotten back on track after a tough beginning to the season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 2 of his last 3 starts and he has a lot of confidence about pitching here. Those 2 most recent strong starts against the Twins were both road starts for him at Minnesota. The Twins enter this game having struggled at the plate in so many of their games this season. Minnesota has been held to 3 or less runs in 11 of the last 16 games! Though these two bullpens rate nearly equal in most categories so far this season, the one in which they do not is wins and losses. Royals relievers are 6-1 and Twins relievers are 1-8. Also, the Royals have saves in 9 of 12 opportunities while Twins have saves in only 4 of 9 opportunities. Overall, the Royals enter this game on a 7-2 run and one of those losses was by a single run. Minnesota has lost 14 of 18 games and is over-priced here considering all of the above. KC has just 1 loss by more than a single run margin in the last 9 games. Bet the Kansas City Royals +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-01-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 222 | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222 LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - This game features two of the elite teams in the West and both are without significant contributors offensively as the Clippers are without Leonard (25.7PPG), while the Nuggets are missing Murray (21.2PPG). In fact, these two teams met in early April with those two players and the teams combined for just 195 total points. That was with Leonard/Murray combining for 47 points that won’t be on the floor in this game. Strangely enough the Over/Under set on that previous game was 220 and lower than this number. These two teams are both top 12 in defensive efficiency and most importantly the 3rd and 4th SLOWEST paced teams in the NBA. With neither team interested in playing fast we can’t see this game getting to a league average of 222 total points. In the last nine meetings between these two teams these two teams have totaled less than today’s number eight times. Going back further, these two have stayed Under the total in 24 of the last 33 meetings in L.A. BET UNDER! |
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05-01-21 | Blues +127 v. Wild | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Blues Money Line +130 over Minnesota Wild at 8:05 PM ET - After the Blues rallied for the win Wednesday night they then managed to survive a Minnesota rally Thursday night and got the OT win and we should not be surprised by that. St Louis has now won 7 of 10 games. The 6 victories have all come against the top 3 teams in the division - Wild, Avalanche, and Golden Knights. On the other hand, Minnesota entered Wednsday's game red hot on a 7-game winning streak but all 7 of those games during their winning streak had come against the 3 weakest teams in the division. Now, just because the Wild have a great home record and are out for double-revenge, they are getting bumped up on the money line price today. The markets are all over them (AGAIN!) and there is a ton of value as a result with an underdog Blues team that still has plenty of championship pedigree on its roster from their 2019 Stanley Cup winning team! They are fighting for a playoff spot and when they play like they are capable of (witness 3rd period Wednesday and OT Thursday for evidence of this) they have been dominant. Look at what they did to Avalanche in their game prior to his series as they also put on a clinic in that contest. The Blues have won 14 road games already this season and have been better away from home than at home. Ton of line value here given all of the above variables. Take the BLUES |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee vs LA Dodgers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET – The O/U is 4-10 in Dodgers road games this season. The O/U is 8-15 in Brewers games against right-handed starters this season. Facing LA's Dustin May is unlikely to alter the trending of that latter stat for Milwaukee. The Dodgers right-hander has a 2.53 ERA this season and struck out 10 against the Padres in his last start. Speaking of impressive pitching, the Brewers Brandon Woodruff has a 1.55 ERA this season and has also been piling up strikeouts. The Dodgers struggles at the plate are very likely to continue against Woodruff. Los Angeles has been held to an average of 1.7 runs per game last 6 road games! The O/U is 0-6 in those games! The Brewers have had 5 games so far on this homestand and have been held to an average of 2.4 runs per game! On the season Milwaukee has a .289 on base percentage at home - that is the worst mark in the National League. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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04-30-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over San Jose Sharks, Friday at 9:05 PM ET - The Sharks have won back to back games but both contests were against an Arizona club that has lost 9 of 11 games so San Jose knocking off the struggling Coyotes was not a total surprise. Prior to this, San Jose had lost 8 straight games and they do enter this game at Colorado having lost 4 straight road games. 6 of the 8 losses have come by at least 2 goals. Also, all 4 meetings between the Sharks and Avs this season have been decided by a multi-goal margin and the Avalanche have taken 3 of these by a combined score of 14 to 3. However, the Avs enter this game on their first 3 game losing streak of the season. That means Colorado is certainly not going to overlook anyone and they host a struggling Sharks team they should dominate here. Of course that is why the Avalanche are a 3 to 1 money line favorite here but where the value can be found is with the puck line and there is no hesitation in being comfortable with laying the 1.5 goals here. Not only is Colorado on a 12-1 run in home games, 9 of the Avs last 11 home wins have been by 2+ goals. Additionally, their #1 goalie should be back for this one as Grubauer is now back from injury. However, if he does not play in this one, it will be Dubnyk between the pipes against the team he started this season with! He will be ready for revenge. We are 100% comfortable with either goalie here and the fact is the Avalanche are the better overall team all over the ice. That is why Colorado has outshot the Sharks by a combined 153 to 104 margin in their 4 games this season. While the Avalanche have scored at least 1 power play goal in 5 straight meetings with San Jose, the Sharks are just 1 for 15 on the power play in last 4 games against Colorado. The Avalanche also could have Rantanen and Danskoi back for this one and that will further boost one of the top teams in the NHL! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (at a very fair price currently in the -120 range) with home favorite Colorado is the value play here. |
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04-30-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 140-143 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams have plenty to play for as the Spurs are fighting for an “at large bid” and a chance to play in, while the Celtics are trying to lock in a top 6 seed which would keep them out of the play in games. San Antonio is playing well right now with 5 wins in their last seven games and a couple of those victories were impressive as they beat a red-hot Wizards team and the Phoenix Suns. Conversely, the Celtics are 2-4 SU their last six games and two of those loses came against two of the league’s weakest teams in Charlotte, and Oklahoma City. The Spurs are coming off a tough loss in Miami, but they’ve cashed 80% in this situation as they are 8-2 ATS on the road off a loss. Boston is coming off a 9-point win over Charlotte as a -6.5-point favorite which also contributes to our prediction here as the C’s are 7-15-1 ATS their last 23 when coming off a win. This game shapes up to be a tight affair which has us on the Underdog plus the points. |
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04-30-21 | Braves v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-13 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10.5 Runs – Toronto vs Atlanta, Friday at 7:35 PM ET – This O/U opened up at 9.5 and went to 10.5 and there are key reasons why this is offering huge value to the under. First off this is a battle of southpaws. The Braves are hitting an unreal .136 versus left-handed pitching! As you would expect with that horrible number, Atlanta ranks dead last in the majors in that category this season. The Blue Jays are also struggling versus lefties as Toronto has a slugging percentage of .358 versus southpaws to rank 25th out of 30 teams in MLB. Starting tonight is Drew Smyly for the Braves. He just returned from injury and had a horrible first inning but then settled in and allowed only one more run the rest of the way. Smyly will draw some momentum from the way that start wrapped up and the Blue Jays have very few hitters with experience against him which is another definite advantage. The Braves bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack this season so they are not horrible and the Blue Jays bullpen is actually at the top of the majors with a 2.30 ERA on the season. That Toronto pen will be supporting a Jays starter, Robbie Ray, who saw his fastball nearing triple digits in his most recent start. Ray fanned 9 in that outing and has a 2.81 ERA this season and should be in top form against an Atlanta lineup that has struggled so badly with lefties this season. The Braves have had two big games at the plate (both against the Cubs) in last 9 games but the other 7 games saw Atlanta average only 2.6 runs per game. The Blue Jays have scored an average of just 3.3 runs last 9 games. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 (or even 10 based on the current posted total of 10.5) that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Warriors v. Wolves UNDER 234.5 | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 234.5 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves - These are two of the four fastest paced teams in the NBA for the season but in their last five games both teams have slowed significantly. In the two meetings in January between these two teams they combined for 234 and 238 total points but the field goal attempts were very low compared to both team’s season averages. Golden State is 8th in defensive efficiency while the Wolves are 28th, but with the return of Karl Anthony Towns and DeAngelo Russell the Wolves DEFF has improved to 11th best in the NBA in their last five games. Golden State just played horrendous defense last game against the Mavericks so expect a much better effort tonight. There are plenty of trend support for the Under here as the Warriors are 6-1 Under their last seven road games as a favorite. Wolves are on a 4-1 Under run their last five games following a straight up win. Historically, the Under has cashed 27 of the last 39 meetings. The bet here is UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Blues +134 v. Wild | Top | 5-4 | Win | 134 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Blues Money Line +135 over Minnesota Wild at 8:05 PM ET - The Blues rallied for the win last night but we should not be surprised by that. St Louis has now won 6 of 9 games. The 6 victories have all come against the top 3 teams in the division - Wild, Avalanche, and Golden Knights. On the other hand, Minnesota entered yesterday's game red hot on a 7-game winning streak but all 7 of those games during their winning streak had come against the 3 weakest teams in the division. Now, just because the Wild have a great home record and are out for revenge, they are getting bumped up on the money line price today. The markets are all over them and there is a ton of value as a result with an underdog Blues team that still has plenty of championship pedigree on its roster from their 2019 Stanley Cup winning team! They are fighting for a playoff spot and when they play like they are capable of (witness 3rd period last night for evidence of this) they have been dominant. Look at what they did to Avalanche in prior game as they also put on a clinic in that contest. The Blues have won 13 road games already this season and have been better away from home than at home. Ton of line value here given all of the above variables. Take the BLUES |
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04-29-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: GAME ONE of DOUBLE HEADER: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (+120) over Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 5:10 PM ET - The Tigers got a 5-2 win Tuesday over the White Sox but had entered that game losing 10 of 11 games! Chicago entered Tuesday's game having won 6 of 7. The White Sox are fully expected to bounce back here and have a huge pitching edge on the mound and that is why the money line on this game is in the -200 range. To get the value with this bounce back situation we utilize the run line. Yes, the White Sox must win this game by at least 2 runs and it only is a 7-inning game but Chicago should absolutely jump on the Tigers early and hold a big lead throughout and this gets us a comeback return currently in the +120 range. Great line value considering Chicago's last 6 wins have featured 5 by 2+ runs. Casey Mize gets the start for Detroit here. The right-hander was winless with a 6.99 ERA in his 7 starts last season. This season he started okay but is quickly reverting to poor form again. In his last two starts Mize allowed 11 earned runs in under 10 innings combined on the mound while also serving up 5 home runs! He will prove no match for his counterpart, Carlos Rodon in this one. The White Sox left-hander had a great spring training (1.32 ERA in 4 games) and this has carried right into a phenomenal start to the regular season. Rodon is 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA and has held opponents to a minuscule .081 batting average! The White Sox have won his 3 starts by a combined score of 22-5 and another run line cover with him on the mound should not be a problem here. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this immediate revenge situation. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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04-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -4 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This game has been marked on our calendar since these teams last met and we were hoping this line would come out as low as it has so we could play on the Suns. There is some “bad blood” between these two teams with hard fouls, technical and ejections occurring in the previous two meetings. The last time these rivals met the Clippers held on to win at home 113-103. Kawhi Leonard, who is out here, poured in 27-points, grabbed 5 rebounds and had 5 assists for the Clippers. L.A. is also without Beverly who would typically “dog” either Chris Paul or Devin Booker in this matchup. These two teams are right behind the Jazz in the standings and both would love the #1 seed in the West. Phoenix has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA with a 23-9 SU record and the third best average margin of victory of +8.4PPG. The Suns have the 5th best offensive efficiency at home, 4th best DEFF at home. The Clippers have solid road differentials but they haven’t been as good defensively on the road ranking 12th in defensive efficiency away from home. Phoenix is 8-1 ATS their last nine home games against a team with a winning record while the Clippers are 2-5 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a plus .500 home record. The Suns get revenge here in a big win! |
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04-28-21 | Avalanche +125 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Money Line +125 over Vegas Golden Knights at 9:35 PM ET - The Avalanche had a rare off game against the Blues Monday while St Louis played spectacularly well. That happens sometimes but that is helping to give some line value because Colorado is not getting near the respect they should be in this spot. Yes, Vegas is a great team but the Avalanche are right there with them and that is regardless of who is between the pipes for Colorado in this one. The Avs will be skating very well and will be very crisp as they respond off a blowout loss to the Blues. The road team has won 2 of the last 3 meetings. That includes the Golden Knights winning the most recent meeting which was at Colorado. Prior to that the Avalanche had won 3 of the last 4 games between these two. Colorado is 11-3 when off a loss this season and enters this game off B2B losses but has never lost 3 straight games this season. Vegas enters this game red hot but all their recent games during their winning streak have come against the 4 weakest teams in the division. Take the AVALANCHE |
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04-27-21 | Mavs v. Warriors -5 | Top | 133-103 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9:40 PM ET - Dallas is dealing with several key injuries including Porzingis, Richardson, Redick and potentially Doncic tonight and won’t have a full compliment of players to deal with a hot Warriors team. Golden State has won 7 of their last ten games including two straight against the Kings and Nuggets. The Warriors three loses in that ten game stretch came to the blistering Wizards and Celtics. The Mavs have cooled a bit with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games and are coming off a game last night at Sacramento. This will be the Mavericks 5th game in seven days and the second of a back-to-back which will be tough to overcome. We basically need the Warriors to win outright and Golden State is 22-13 SU this season when playing with a day rest. The Mavericks are just 5-7 SU and ATS when playing without rest. Dallas is on an 0-4 ATS streak when coming off a loss. We like Steph and company to get a big win here. |
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04-27-21 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - These lineups just faced these pitchers last week and both actually had a little success but the game still went over the total thanks to faulty bullpens. By the way, these are two of the worst bullpens in the majors thus far on the season. The Rangers bullpen has a 5.54 ERA overall and the Angels bullpen has a 5.77 ERA in road games this season. The key to the value here is both starting pitchers were fortunate they did not allow more runs in their meeting last week. LA's Jose Quintana gave up quite a few hard hit balls for outs. The Rangers Mike Foltneywicz allowed 3 homers but all were solo bombs. Foltneywicz has given up an average of 2 homers per start in his 4 appearances this season. The Angels Ohtani left yesterday's game with a blister injury but that impacted his pitching more than hitting and he should be back in the lineup today. Also, Los Angeles has been given a boost with the return of Rendon to the lineup. He did not hit well yesterday but is hitting .323 in 31 career at-bats versus Foltneywicz. The Rangers right-hander had a rough spring training and has continued to labor in his regular season starts. The Angels Quintana has a 9.00 ERA this season and has walked 11 in 10 innings. The over 7-2 in Angels last 9 games. The over 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games. The Angels have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of 9 games and Texas has scored at least 4 runs in 4 of 5 games. This total sitting at an even 9 runs so plenty of value with getting at least to a 5-4 final quite likely in this one. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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04-27-21 | Sabres v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Rangers Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Rangers are still very much alive in the playoff race. New York trails Boston by only 4 points in the standings and they finish the regular season with back to back games against the Bruins in less than 2 weeks. That means New York is certainly not going to take their foot off the gas now and they host a struggling Sabres team here that has nothing to play for. Of course that is why the Rangers are a 3 to 1 money line favorite here but where the value can be found is with the puck line and there is no hesitation in being comfortable with laying the 1.5 goals here. The Rangers have won 6 of 8 games. 21 of New York's 25 wins have been by 2+ goals this season. That means 84% of the time a Rangers win is by a multiple-goal margin! The Sabres enter this game having lost 26 of 33 games! Buffalo's last 3 defeats have been decided by a 13 to 4 combined margin and this included a 6-3 loss to the Rangers. Huge goalie edge for New York in this one. The Rangers start Igor Shesterkin and he is 4-0-1 with a 2.12 GAA versus the Sabres this season. The Sabres start Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and he just turned 22 years old last month. It will be just his 2nd NHL appearance. He won his first start last week but allowed 4 goals to the Bruins. Even at the AHL level this season and last season he has not been overly impressive as he had a 3.15 GAA last season and has a 3.60 GAA this season. This is a team and goalie and situational mismatch. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (at a very fair price currently in the -110 range) with home favorite New York Rangers is the value play here. |
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04-26-21 | Suns v. Knicks UNDER 215.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Phoenix Suns @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - We have a pair of top six defensive teams going head-to-head tonight when the Knicks and Suns square off. New York has the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the league at 1.083-points per possession while the Suns allow just 1.101PPP. The other key aspect of this wager is the pace of play numbers. New York is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 96 possessions per game, Phoenix is 7th at 97.2. We get two teams that want to play slow and play outstanding defense, yet the number set on this game is just 6-points lower than league average. The Knicks have the #1 ranked overall field goal percentage defense and the 3-point percentage D while the Suns check in at #10 in overall FG% D and are 5th in 3PT% defense. Phoenix is coming off a game yesterday against the Nets and have slightly favored the Under when playing without rest with a 6-8 Under record on the year in this scheduling situation. New York has played some higher scoring games recently, but they haven’t faced a top 10 defense in ten straight games. In fact, the last good defensive team the Knicks played was the Lakers and that game ended with just 207 total points. We like a low scoring game here and a solid Under bet. |
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04-26-21 | A's -111 v. Rays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's -110 over Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - Yesterday's ugly 8-1 loss at Baltimore ended a run of 13 straight wins for Oakland! They are still the hottest team in the majors despite that defeat and are 6-2 in road games this season! The Rays are 4-6 in home games this season. Tampa Bay's slugging percentage the last 15 days ranks 20th in the majors while Oakland's, over that same period, ranks #1 in MLB with a .456 slugging percentage! The A's have scored 6 runs per game during their 13-1 hot streak! Tampa Bay has scored an average of only 3.5 runs in its 10 home games this season. Oakland starter Sean Manaea had a rough first start this season but is coming off a 7-inning complete game shutout (was a game in a double header) and has allowed a total of only 3 runs in his last 3 starts combined! Compare that to Tampa Bay starter Rich Hill allowing 4 earned runs in EACH of his 4 starts this season. Big difference in the current trending of these two pitchers and Hill, 41 years old, appears to be nearing the end of the line in his MLB career. He got roughed up in spring training too so his early season struggles should not come as a surprise and we do not foresee Hill bucking this trend anytime soon. Manaea, on the other hand, is 10-4 with a 3.27 ERA and the 29-year old appears to be entering his prime at the MLB level. Significant pitching edge here and this is the ideal spot to back the Athletics too after yesterday's 8-1 beating. Per our computer math model, a road rout is in the offing for this match-up Monday evening. Look for the Athletics to make it 14 wins in 15 games as they immediately bounce back from Sunday's big loss! We will grab the road team at a very short price on the money line in this one and bet OAKLAND |
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04-26-21 | Canucks -115 v. Senators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Vancouver Canucks Money Line -115 over Ottawa Senators at 7:00 PM ET - The Senators were riding a hot goalie, Matt Murray, and getting some surprise victories as a result. Overall though this is another poor hockey club this season and now Murray got hurt. That is why Marcus Hogberg is going to make the start tonight and it will be just his 3rd appearance since mid-February. Hogberg has a 3.47 GAA in his career and has not looked overly sharp this season either as he has a 4.14 GAA! The Canucks still have playoff hopes and have returned from their extended absence due to covid to come right back and win 3 of 4 games. Now they catch an Ottawa team dealing with a tough goalie situation and they will take full advantage to send the Senators to their 6th home loss in their last 7 games as a host. Vancouver has won 6 of 7 meetings with Ottawa this season and that series dominance continues Monday. Take the CANUCKS |
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04-25-21 | Kings v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on: OVER 229.5 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings are without DeAaron Fox here but the line has been adjusted for his absence but not enough according to our models. The Kings are atrocious defensively allowing 119PPG (last in the NBA), have the 30th ranked field goal percentage defense and are 29th defending the 3-point line. How do you think that is going to stop Steph Curry and the Warriors who are 12th in 3-point shooting and average 115PPG. Sacramento is the 9th fastest paced team in the NBA and won’t slow down here just because Fox is out. The Kings will also put up points with the 7th highest scoring offense in the NBA at 114.6PPG, 6th best FG% shooting offense and 16th best 3-point percentage. Golden State is also the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA so they’ll gladly play uptempo with the Kings. In the two meetings this season these two teams have combined for 260 and 243 total points. The Kings are on a 7-3 Over run when playing on the road against a team with a winning home record. The Warriors are 4-1 Over their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. The bet here is OVER! |
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04-25-21 | Sabres v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6 Goals – New York Rangers vs Buffalo Sabres, Sunday at 6 PM ET – Both teams off big wins. The Sabres upset the Bruins Friday. The Rangers got a key win, after back to back losses, over the Flyers Friday and that keeps them alive in the playoff hunt. Ironically the Sabres win over the Bruins helped the Rangers and now they face each other in their very next game. Buffalo has had 8 games total 6 or more goals in last 11 games. With each team off big wins, could be a defensive lapse here. The Rangers have scored an average of 3.7 goals last 11 games. Shesterkin has allowed at least 3 goals in each of his last 3 starts. Tokarski has allowed an average of 3 goals his last 4 games. This series has trended under but this one is the ideal situation to buck that trend. Both teams score well in what should be a very entertaining high-scoring match-up. Take the OVER here |
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04-25-21 | A's v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Baltimore vs Oakland, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – Wind blowing in from left or at least left to right and is unlikely to help the hitters. A lot of right-handed bats at the plate for this one and will be trying to pull directly into the wind against a pair of solid left-handed starters. John Means has been pitching extremely well to begin this season. He has 4 starts under his belt and is the ace of the staff with a 1.52 ERA. Also, the Orioles bullpen which supports him has #6 ranked ERA in the majors with a 3.19 ERA on the season thus far. As for Oakland, they certainly are not having pitching issues either. That is why this team has won 13 games in a row! There was one crazy 13-12 extra innings win in the stretch but in the other dozen games the A's have allowed only 2 runs per game on average! The Orioles have a .377 slugging percentage against lefties to rank in the bottom third of the majors thus far this season. As hot as Oakland has been they are hitting only .221 in day games this season and Means has been fantastic on the mound this year. The Athletics have Jesus Luzardo on the mound. He has pitched quite well in 3 of his 4 starts and his most recent was his best one yet. Piling up strikeouts and he also limited hits in his most recent start plus the Orioles have no familiarity with him. That should be an edge to the young southpaw and the Orioles struggles against lefties continue. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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04-24-21 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 2-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 4:10 PM ET - Both of these starting pitchers had a rough spring training. Both starters have seen those tough times carry right into the regular season as well. We are aware of the Mike Trout injury situation for the Angels but, even without him in the lineup yesterday, LA pounded out 13 hits in the extra innings loss. Also, his likely replacement is Scott Schebler. He is 3 for 6 with two homers in his career against Jake Odorizzi! The Astros Odorizzi had a 15.75 ERA in spring training and has a 10.57 ERA so far in the regular season this year. The Angels start Griffin Canning. The Los Angeles right-hander had a 6.75 ERA in spring training and has a 5.68 ERA so far in the regular season this year. Canning has a 6.35 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Astros with a 1.94 WHIP. That means he allowed about 2 baserunners per inning which of course leads to trouble quickly. Both these bullpens rank in the bottom half of the rankings for relievers ERA this season too. The Angels are hitting .267 in road games this season which is the 2nd best mark in MLB! The over is 4-0 in Astros L4 home games. The over is 5-1 in Angels L6 games overall. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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04-24-21 | 76ers +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 over Milwaukee Bucks - These two teams just met on Thurs with the Bucks winning 124-117. The 76ers shot 51% overall, 44% from 3 and had 33 rebounds. The Bucks outdid them though and shot 56% overall, made 20 of 40 3-pointers and outrebound the Sixers by 12. The Bucks are now 2-0 vs. Philly this year which makes this game that much more important for Philadelphia. The 76ers are 17-13 SU on the road with a +3.5PPG MOV which is 7th best in the NBA. Philly is in a much more desperate situation having lost 3 straight games while Milwaukee has won 4 of their last six. The 76ers are 12-7 SU when off a loss this year, 11-7-1 ATS. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS as a road dog this season – BUT those losses have come by an average of just -2.5PPG. This game is going to have a playoff like intensity which has us on the Underdog. Make sure you check the starting lineups before tipoff and Joel Embiid is scheduled to play. |
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04-23-21 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 228 | Top | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround game for these two teams as they just met on April 12th with the Warriors winning 116-107. The O/U on that game was 227.5 and that was with Jamal Murray in the lineup for the Nuggets. In that game the Nuggets attempted just 83 field goals while the Warriors shot just 81 times. Those are both well below their season averages for each team. Golden State is coming off a tough five game East coast road trip and it was obvious Steph Curry ran out of our gas against Washington last time out. The Nuggets are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA and will certainly walk it up here against a Warriors team that typically plays fast, but off that road trip will play slower here. Golden State has been improving their defensive efficiency numbers and have climbed to 7th in the NBA while the Nuggets are 15th in DEFF but 10th in points allowed defense. The Nugs are on a 5-0 Under streak on the road, Golden State Under 4-1 their last five versus teams with a winning record. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings between these two, including both meetings this season with end results of 218 and 223. The bet here is UNDER the total. |
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04-23-21 | A's -126 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's -125 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - 11 straight wins for Oakland! They are the hottest team in the majors and are 4-1 in road games this season! The Orioles are 1-6 in home games this season. Baltimore's slugging percentage ranks 24th in the majors while Oakland's is in the top ten! The A's have scored 6.5 runs per game during their winning streak! Baltimore has scored an average of only 3 runs in its last 7 games. Orioles starter Jorge Lopez has allowed 5 homers in less than 14 innings of work on the season. Athletics starter Cole Irvin has allowed only 9 hits in 11 and 1 / 3 innings his last two starts and is coming off a start in which he pitched 6 scoreless innings. Irvin dominated in spring training too and the former Phillie appears to be rounding into form as the 27 year old is now in his 4th year in the majors. For Lopez, he is 10-19 with a 6.17 ERA in his career and is struggling again already this season with an 8.56 ERA thus far on the year. Per our computer math model, a road rout is in the offing for this match-up Friday evening. Look for the Athletics to make it a dozen straight wins! We will grab the road team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet OAKLAND |
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04-22-21 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | Top | 117-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:10 PM ET - These two teams are clearly a pair of the best teams in the East and could certainly represent in the NBA Finals and both have MVP caliber players in Giannis and Embiid. The Bucks were held by Memphis and Phoenix to 115 and 116 points in regulation their last two games and those teams are similar defensively to the 76ers but not quite as good. Philly is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.076PPP. While we are on the subject of defense, the Bucks have seen their defensive numbers improve recently and now rank 8th in DEFF allowing just 1.107PPP. The 76ers have the 4th best FG% defense allowing 45.3% on the season, Milwaukee is 5th best at 45.4%. These two played on March 17th and totaled 214 total points in OVERTIME. This game has a playoff feel and several key scorers could be out for both teams making scoring more difficult. The bet here is UNDER! |
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04-22-21 | Bruins v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Sabres Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Boston Bruins, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - The Sabres have lost all four meetings with the Bruins this season. However, 2 of the 4 games have been 1-goal losses and this is an interesting match-up. Buffalo cleaned house not too long ago and they are still fighting hard. Taking a look at their last 14 games, only 2 were losses by more than a goal. That's right, if you took the Sabres at 1.5 goals in each of their last 14 games you would have a 12-2 record! Buffalo is still competing and they are out for revenge for a season-long beating they have been taking at the hands of Boston. The Sabres seemed to be headed for disaster with Hutton out and then Ullmark getting hurt. However, Dustin Tokarski has really stepped up in goal for Buffalo and has allowed just 2.2 goals in his last 5 starts. The Sabres confidence is growing as they have had 7 straight strong performances against quality opposition. Only 1 of the 7 was a 2-goal loss and that was against Boston Tuesday in a 2-0 final where the Sabres arguably deserved better. Jeremy Swayman will start for Boston here and he has made only 5 NHL starts. He has played very well yet is still very inexperienced at this level. Also, he has allowed at least 2 goals in each of his 3 road starts. Considering that as well as Tokarski's success between the pipes for Buffalo, it is hard to envision the Bruins getting much of a margin, if any, in this one! Grabbing the 1.5 goals (at a very fair price currently in the -105 range) with home dog Buffalo is the value play here. |
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04-22-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Cleveland vs New York Yankees, Thursday at 6:10 PM ET – It will be a chilly evening in Cleveland and certainly NOT a hitter-friendly night. The Yankees and Indians are hitting .205 and .209, respectively, so far this season. Those are the two worst batting averages in the American League. Yankees and Indians relievers, however, rank each team as two of the best in the majors with the Yankees bullpen #1 with a 2.28 ERA and the Indians bullpen #6 in the majors with a 3.00 ERA. As for the starting pitchers in this one Aaron Civale is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA for Cleveland this season. For New York, Domingo German just returned from the Yankees training site because he had some early season struggles. But his arm appears fine and he had great numbers in spring training. This is still the same hard thrower that went 18-4 and held hitters to a .228 batting average in the last full season two years ago in 2019. The Indians have played 16 games this season and the Yankees have played 17 games and the teams have each gone over the total in only 6 of their respective games. The Yanks have scored an average of just 2.6 runs their past 8 games. The Indians have scored an average of only 3.3 runs per game their past 9 games. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER. |
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04-21-21 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5.5 Goals – Arizona Coyotes vs Minnesota Wild, Wednesday at 9 PM ET – The Coyotes and Wild have each been trending over recently and this total is posted at a 5.5 mostly based on long-term performance that does not really apply here. Entering this game 12 of the Coyotes last 16 games have totaled 6 or more goals. Yes long-term Arizona is known for being involved in lower-scoring games but that simply has not been the case over the past 5 weeks. Entering this game 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games have totaled 6 or more goals. This is Arizona's final match-up with the Wild this season so surely they will go strong here and be on the attack but the Coyotes have struggled to stop Minnesota all season long. As hot as the Wild have been with scoring lately, that is likely to continue to be a problem here. As a result, both teams score well in what should be a very entertaining high-scoring match-up. Take the OVER here. |
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04-21-21 | Mets -122 v. Cubs | Top | 4-16 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets -122 over Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - The Cubs won yesterday's game but this followed a stretch of 8 losses in 11 games. Chicago only had 4 hits in yesterday's game and continues to struggle badly at the plate. The Cubs have not won back to back games since very early this season. The Mets have not lost back to back games yet this season as New York is a perfect 4-0 when off a loss this year. In terms of the pitching match-up here, the Mets hold a big edge. New York's David Peterson had a rough first start but bounced back big in his next start and he had a solid spring too. Consider the first start this season a bit of an aberration for Peterson and it was a day game start. His next start was at night and he dominated. How can that matter? Some guys are much better under the lights than in day games and Peterson has shown this pattern already in his young career. He is a perfect 5-0 with a 2.67 ERA in his 6 starts in evening action! The Cubs are hitting a putrid .189 at the plate so far this season which is the worst batting average in the majors. They have never faced Peterson which is another big edge for the southpaw here. The Mets have also struggled at the plate early this season but are hitting a more respectable .241 thus far. Though New York has wasted opportunities and not scored all that well they have had their chances. The key here is they should have great success in both creating and cashing in those opportunities. The Cubs Zach Davies does not look right at all. He is struggling badly on the mound for Chicago thus far and has a 10.32 ERA and a 2.21 WHIP. That latter stat means that he is allowing an average of 2 base runners per inning and this is a guy who has made 3 starts already and 2 of them were against a Pirates team projected to be one of the worst in the majors this season. The Mets are projected to challenge the Braves for top spot in the NL East. The Mets bats come to life against Davies and we expect Peterson to throw a gem here. We will grab the road team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet the METS |
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04-21-21 | Warriors v. Wizards +2 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +2 over Golden State Warriors, 7:10 PM ET - There is no denying the play of Steph Curry right now is off the charts but even he won’t have enough in the tank to carry the Warriors to a win here. The Wizards have gone on a nice run with five straight wins and 7 of their last ten. Washington recently beat the Warriors 110-107 in Golden State as a 4-point road dog. There is a vast majority of money and tickets coming in on Golden State in this game yet the line has moved in the opposite direction which is a clear indicator the smart players are backing Washington. Golden State has the second worst road spread record in the NBA at 12-19 ATS with the 8th worst road point differential at minus -4.3PPG. Golden State is coming off a very big win in Philly which ties into their 13-15 ATS record this season (with a negative differential) when coming off a win. Russ and Beal can trade buckets with Curry tonight. |
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04-20-21 | Clippers -8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on LA Clippers -8.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams met earlier this month with the Clippers winning 133-116 and the Blazers had Damian Lillard for that game, but he is out here. Another starter missing from the line up is starting center Nurkic and his 9.3PPG and 7.5RPG. Los Angeles is playing well with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games and a 4-0-1 ATS streak their last five games overall. Portland is in a funk right now with a 2-5 SU record their last five games and they have three home losses this month to teams similar to the Clippers (Celtics, Heat, Bucks). L.A. is 17-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd best scoring differential of +5.1PPG on the season. Portland has a winning home record on the season but their average margin of victory is just 0.1PPG and 16th in the NBA. The Clippers have a top five offense in terms of scoring, field goal percentage and 3-points shooting while the Blazers rank in the bottom eleven defensively in those same categories. The Clippers have covered 5 straight versus the Blazers, make it six in a row after tonight. |
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04-20-21 | Braves +113 v. Yankees | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta +110 over NY Yankees, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Yankees have lost 5 straight games and 8 of 10. The Yankees are known for striking out far too often at the plate and now they face Charlie Morton, a curve ball specialist. Morton had his curve working fantastically well in his most recent start and his scoreline for that one was deceiving as he deserved better. We expect him to absolutely handcuff the Yankees in this one by keeping them off balance all game long. The Yankees are feeling the added pressure of being in a losing skid and that only makes it even more difficult to step in the box with confidence against a guy like Morton who allowed just 2 earned runs in 9 innings against the Yankees last season as a member of the Rays. That included defeating them in the post-season. Morton has a great history against nearly all the Yankees batters. The lone exception being Brett Gardner but he is 0 for 8 his last 3 games entering this one. The Braves should pound Jameson Taillon here. He is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Taillon has allowed 3 homers in 8 and 1 / 3 innings over his first two starts. Atlanta has won 3 of the last 4 games and has scored an average of 6.4 runs per game in the last 10 games. We’ll grab the road team at an underdog price on the money line in this one and bet ATLANTA |
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04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:10 PM ET - We like the Nuggets here as they catch the Grizzlies are coming off a huge upset of the Bucks in Milwaukee a few nights ago. The Grizzlies shot ridiculously well at 55% which is well above their season average and had Valanciunas in the lineup who is out tonight. Memphis could also be without another starter here in Dillon Brooks who is questionable with a thigh injury. Memphis is playing their 4th game in six days which will be a factor playing in the higher altitude of Denver. The Nuggets have been off for a few days and have adjusted to being without Murray with two straight wins. The Nugs have won 10 of their last twelve games. Denver is 19-10 SU at home on the year with the 6th best average home differential of +6PPG. Ten of the Nuggets last fourteen home wins have come by 9 or more points. Memphis has some impressive road numbers this season, but with the current situation and injuries this will be a difficult spot for them to cover. Denver has a top 5 offense when it comes to 3pt%, FG% and points and should have an easy time scoring against a Grizzlies defense that is in the bottom half of the NBA in FG% D, scoring D and 11th in 3pt% defense. Memphis hasn’t covered in Denver in four straight trips here. Lay the points. |
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04-19-21 | Rays v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:10 PM ET – Josh Fleming gets the start for the Rays and he was born in Missouri. This road trip to Kansas City is a special one for him and he will have a lot of supporters in the stands for this one. The Tampa Bay southpaw, now in his 2nd season in the majors, is 5-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 8 career appearances, 6 of which were starts. He faces a Royals team that has decent overall season numbers at the plate but that is because those stats are skewed by their first two games this season when they scored 25 runs. Since then, KC has averaged scoring only 3 runs per game its past 12 games. The Royals, not including extra innings, have been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of those 12 games! Unsurprisingly, given those numbers, Kansas City is on an under run that has seen the under cash in 9 of 11 games! The Rays, on the other hand, have been trending over the total but this is atypical of Tampa Bay baseball and there should be a regression to the mean. The way the Royals Danny Duffy is throwing, that regression should include this game staying under the total. Duffy is 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA and has fanned 11 in 12 innings this season. Though the Rays have trended over this season, yesterday's game did stay under the total and was the 7th time in 9 games in which Tampa Bay was held to 4 or less runs. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER. |
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04-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5.5 Goals – Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets, Monday at 7 PM ET – Columbus ranks among the worst in the league for goals allowed this season and the Blue Jackets have been trending the wrong direction since Zach Werenski got hurt. The defensive pairing of Seth Jones and Werenski is what made Columbus a tough team in the past but they really did not have the same level of performance this season and now, worse yet, 50% of that pairing is out for the season. Since the game in which Werenski got hurt - the final game played through in pain, the Blue Jackets have allowed an average of 4.6 goals per game and lost all 5 games. Elvis Merzlikins has been announced as the goalie for tonight and he is 2-7-1 with a 3.10 GAA in road games this season. He will face a Panthers team that is off a huge win at Tampa Bay. Beating the Lightning is the type of big victory that can leave a team flat defensively in its next game. So Columbus could surprise the Panthers early in this one and Sergei Bobrovsky, former Jackets goalie, has shown some inconsistencies when facing his prior team. Bobrovsky gets the call for Florida tonight against Columbus and he has given up at least 3 goals in 3 straight starts. The Panthers have won 4 straight home games and scored an average of 3.5 goals per game in those games. Leading scorer Aleksander Barkov is getting going again after missing some time with an injury and now has 2 goals and an assist in his last 4 games. He has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 match-ups with Columbus as he has been trouble for them to contain and this is the type of match-up where not having Werenski really hurts the Blue Jackets. Both teams score well in what should be a very entertaining high-scoring match-up. Take the OVER here. |
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04-18-21 | Rockets v. Magic UNDER 219.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#577/578 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 219.5 Points – Houston vs Orlando, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA facing off here and we look for a low scoring affair. The Rockets are 24th in the league averaging just 108 PPG while Orlando is 29th in the NBA putting up just 104 PPG. The only team in the NBA that averages fewer points than the Magic is Cleveland. When it comes to offensive efficiency these teams are 27th and 29th in the NBA averaging just 105 & 106 points per 100 possessions. They also rank 28th and 30th in field goal percentage. The Rockets have been held to under 110 points in 4 of their last 6 games while the Magic have been limited to 106 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Going back even further, Orlando’s offense has not topped 116 points in 15 straight games. Over their last 19 games Orlando is averaging just 101 PPG and they’ve been held under 100 points 9 times. Now when we add the injury situation, these two offenses, who are already among the worst in the NBA, will absolutely have problems scoring in this game. The Rockets have 64 PPG sitting on the bench and out for this game with Gordon, Wall, Brown, Augustin, and Nwaba all out for this one. Orlando will be missing Carter-Williams, Fultz, Porter Jr, and Bamba who combine account for 37 PPG on the season. Just too much offensive firepower missing from two teams that already struggle offensively. Take the UNDER here. |
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04-18-21 | Islanders v. Flyers +132 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +135 over New York Islanders at 6:30 PM ET - The East Division is hands down the toughest division in the NHL this season. In any other division, the Flyers would be a playoff team and in one of the top four spots within the division. Instead, they currently sit 6th in the East Division but that is precisely why they are offering tremendous home dog line value in a spot like this. The Islanders have lost 3 of 4 games and are a much better team at home than they are on the road. Also, each of the Islanders last 4 wins have been by a single goal margin and 3 of the 4 were decided after regulation! The Islanders have bigger games on deck with their next 6 contests including 3 against the rival Rangers and 3 against the division leading Capitals. This game will be a tough one for the Islanders from a situational perspective. The Flyers always play them tough and will have Brian Elliott back between the pipes today after Alex Lyon struggled yesterday. Carter Hart is currently out with a lower body injury. The Flyers are off an embarrassing home loss and should respond well here. Grab the home dog as they fight to remain alive in the playoff picture. Take the FLYERS |
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04-18-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER: Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, 4:10 PM ET - Entering Saturday's match-up between these teams, each of the Mariners last 3 home games were overs and the Astros were on an overall 3-0 run to the over. Houston, entering Saturday's game, had allowed 6 or more runs in 6 straight games! Seattle, entering the Saturday match-up, had allowed 6.3 runs per game in home games this season. The point is, regardless of the outcome of Saturday night's game, both teams are trending the way we would like to see for an over. What makes this one absolutely a must play for us is the pitching match-up as both of these starters have been struggling. Jake Odorizzi struggled in spring training and then got hammered in his only regular season start thus far as the Tigers hit him hard including 3 homers in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings. Odorizzi had a 6.59 ERA in limited action, 4 starts, last season and just does not seem to have his confidence on the mound like we saw in 2019 and prior seasons. He is not the same pitcher he was. Speaking of struggling, Nick Margevicius gets the start for the Mariners here. The Seattle southpaw is 4-10 with a 5.94 ERA at the MLB level and is already struggling (7.04 ERA) this season in his 3 games (1 start). Houston has been a top 5 hitting team this season for batting average and will get to Margevicius early and often. The Mariners have been a top 5 hitting team in day games for batting average this season and, again, Odorizzi continues to be very hittable as we noted above. This one has the makings of plenty of runs early and the bullpens have been decent early this season but were not projected to be a strength for either one of these teams coming into the season. There will be a regression to the mean in that regard. Look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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04-17-21 | Cavs +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 96-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#559 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 over Chicago Bulls, Bulls playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 4th game in seven days while the Cavs are rested. Chicago will be shorthanded here with All-Star Zach LaVine sidelined due to illness. Prior to Friday nights game the Bulls had lost 4 straight games all by an average of 9PPG. Despite a 3-3 SU record their last six games the Cavs have played better overall. The Cavs have some of the worst offensive numbers in the NBA on the season including offensive efficiency (28th) and scoring 30th. But with the return of Kevin Love the offense has been much better ranking 14th in OEFF their last five games. The Cavs are 5-0 ATS their last five road games versus a team with a losing record. We mentioned the rest factor in favor of the Cavs as the Bulls are 0-5 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. |
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04-17-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: *Game 1 of DH* New York Mets -1.5 runs (-133) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 5:05 PM ET - This is game one of the double header at Colorado today and the fact is a 7-inning game strengthens this situation for the Mets. That is because Jacob deGrom could very easily end up pitching the whole way and that eliminates the Mets bullpen from the equation. The only problem for deGrom this season has been lack of run support but that changes in this one as the Mets take advantage of facing Chi Chi Gonzalez at Coors Field. This season in two appearances at Coors Field Gonzalez has a 1.60 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA. He came to Colorado before the 2019 season. Entering this season, including the last 2 with the Rockies, here is what Gonzalez has done at the MLB level: 2-10 record with a 6.00 ERA! The Mets enter this game off 3 straight wins. Colorado enters this game having lost 6 straight and they have the worst record in baseball thus far with a 3-10 mark on the season. 7 of the Rockies last 8 losses have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. New York's last two wins have been 3 or more runs each and their road win earlier this season at Philly was by a margin of 4 runs. You can see why laying the 1.5 runs here should not be an issue and if Gonzalez gets into trouble early (likely), he is supported by a Colorado bullpen that has the worst numbers in National League with a 5.84 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Finally deGrom gets big run support and his domination on the mound continues and he finally gets that elusive first win of the season. He has a 0.64 ERA this season and allowed just 1 earned run in 8 innings the last time he pitched at Coors Field and deGrom is 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA in his career against Colorado. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the New York Mets -1.5 runs in Game One of the Double Header Saturday. |
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04-17-21 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Sabres Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Pittsburgh Penguins, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET - The Sabres have an awful history against the Penguins this season. However, this is an interesting match-up. Buffalo cleaned house a little bit and they are still fighting hard. Taking a look at their last 11 games, only 1 was a loss by more than a goal. That's right, if you took the Sabres at 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 games you would have a 10-1 record! Buffalo is still competing and they are out for revenge for a season-long beating they have been taking at the hands of Pittsburgh. The Sabres seemed to be headed for disaster with Hutton out and then Ullmark getting hurt. However, Dustin Tokarski has really stepped up in goal for Buffalo and has allowed just 2 goals in each of his last two starts. The Penguins are off a frustrating loss in the shootout versus the Flyers. The Sabres confidence is growing as they have had 3 straight strong performances against quality opposition. Look for this to be another one here! Grabbing the 1.5 goals (at a very fair price currently in the -115 range) with Buffalo is the value play here. |
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04-16-21 | Tigers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Detroit Tigers @ Oakland A's, 9:40 PM ET - The Tigers are scoring better than most expected early this season. Yesterday's game was an 8-4 loss for Detroit at Oakland but it was the 3rd straight over in Tigers games. Detroit has scored an average of 6 runs a game in its last 4 games. The Tigers have a .416 slugging percentage on the season which ranks 6th in the majors. Though the A's have poor overall numbers offensively this season, they are absolutely trending the right direction. The over is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 games and the Athletics are truly in the zone right now as they have won 5 straight games thanks in large part to a scoring average of 7.4 runs during the streak. Each of these teams have bullpens that rank near the bottom of the majors for relievers ERA early this season and that is an issue here too because each of the starters have an ERA above 8.00 early this season. Frankie Montas struggled badly in his only home start this season and Jose Urena has had issues in both his starts this season. Each of the last two years Urena has finished the season with an ERA above 5.00 so this might be his last start in the rotation for now if things don't turn around. Spencer Turnbull is likely back soon and Urena would be the odd man out. While he is still out there we are going to take advantage of his turn in the rotation and look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
#536 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -2.5 over LA Clippers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers should definitely be the fresher team in this one as they had a day off on April 13th after completing a successful road trip, then played on April 14th at home before another day off yesterday. The Clips, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights here. Philly is also the healthier team in this match up. LA is banged up with Kawhi Leonard possibly missing his 4th straight game here and Beverly & Ibaka still out. The Clippers are 3-0 with Kawhi out however those wins have coming vs Detroit (twice) and Indiana, both below .500 with the Pistons sitting with the worst record in the East. LA barely got by Detroit on Wednesday 100-98 with ex-Piston Reggie Jackson hitting a shot at the buzzer for the win. Philly has been fantastic at home with a 21-5 record, the 2nd best in the NBA behind Utah. They have a +7 PPG point differential at home and they are getting healthy. Both Embiid and Simmons are good to go tonight and Harris looks like he’ll be a go as well (sore knee). We feel this team is undervalued despite their impressive 38-17 record. That’s because the 3 players listed above have combined to miss 30 games this season and the Sixers have been forced to use 20 different starting line ups in the process. They are still 21 games above .500 despite that. When healthy, like tonight, they are outstanding. They have the #2 defense in the NBA allowing 107 points per 100 possessions and they are off a big home win over the Nets on Wednesday when Embiid, Simmons, and Harris combined for 82 points and 18 rebounds. Now they’ve had a day off to get ready for tonight’s big match up with the Clippers. Los Angeles topped Philly in late March but the 76ers weren’t at full strength with Embiid out. Now catching LA in a tough spot, we like Philadelphia tonight. |
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04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers +6.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Lakers +6.5 over Boston, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Celtics are coming off back to back road wins over Denver & Portland so they are a bit overvalued coming into LA. Boston was an underdog in both of those games now laying 6.5 on the road in their 3rd road game in 6 nights. Since LeBron has been out with injury, LA has been a home dog of +6 vs the Sixers and +8.5 vs Milwaukee, 2 of the top teams in the NBA. Now they are getting around the same number vs Boston? This is a bad line in our opinion. The Lakers are off a 4-3 road trip including a blowout win @ Brooklyn the team with the 2nd best record in the East. With LeBron and AD still on the shelf, the Lakers have gotten a big boost with the acquisition of Andre Drummond who has averaged 10 PPG and 11 RPG in his 4 games with LA. Even without their 2 stars the Lakers have been competitive with a 6-7 overall record since LeBron went out and they’ve covered 4 of their last 5. They are undervalued with those 2 on the sideline. Boston steps in off a big 1-point win @ Portland in a back and forth game that could leave them a bit heavy legged for this one just 2 days later. The Celts have a losing road record this season and they are just 4-9 ATS in their 13 games this year as a road favorite. They’ve lost 8 of those 13 games outright. Lakers keep this close and pick up the cover at home. |
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04-15-21 | Sabres v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6 Goals – Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres, Thursday at 7 PM ET – Tricky spot for the Capitals but you know they will score plenty. But Washington could get caught looking ahead to a 4-game road trip that features rival Philly, and big games with Boston and the Islanders (twice). The Islanders are right behind the Caps in the standings and even though the Bruins are further back they have 3 games in hand on Washington. As for the Sabres, they have the worst record in the NHL this season. So what that means here is that the Capitals may not have the defensive intensity you would typically see from them. But the Caps are on fire in the offensive zone. Washington has scored an average of 6 goals per game during their current 3-game winning streak. Here they take on a Sabres team that is down to their #3 goalie! Hutton was already hurt and now Ullmark got hurt. That means Tokarski gets the start tonight and he is winless in all 6 appearances this season with a 3.54 GAA. On the other end of the ice, as disappointing as the Sabres season has been, they are still showing plenty of fight here late in the season. They have earned at least a point in 7 of their last 9 games and the most recent was a tight, low-scoring shootout loss to Boston 3-2. But, prior to that 6 of Sabres 8 games totaled 6 or more goals. Those 8 games averaged 7 goals per game and that is where this one should get to at the very least as well. The over is 5-2 in meetings between these teams this season and that trend continues. 8 of the Capitals last 10 games have totaled 6 or more goals and those 8 games averaged 8 goals. This should be an entertaining affair as we would not be surprised to see Buffalo enjoy some early success and then the Capitals impose their will and score a pile of goals in this one. Take the OVER here. |
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04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET – The Indians were no-hit by the White Sox yesterday which means the Chicago bullpen has fresh arms for this one. That is good news for the White Sox and also there are no issues with a Cleveland bullpen that has been solid early this season with a 2.76 ERA. Neither bullpen may be needed much in this one anyway! Chicago's Lance Lynn allowed 3 earned runs or less in 11 of his 13 starts last season and he enters this start off a complete game shutout of the Royals in which he fanned 11 batters! Lynn should have no trouble with an Indians team that is again one of the worst hitting teams in the majors early this season. What is a surprise is that the slugging White Sox are also struggling with power and their slugging percentage is in the bottom third of the majors so far. Facing Aaron Civale will not help as he has been spectacular early this season with a 2-0 record, 2.45 ERA and holding hitters to a .111 batting average. Adding to the value here is that it is a chilly mid-April afternoon in Chicago and certainly it is not yet hitting weather here in the Midwest! The result, based on all of the above is a well-pitched affair in this one in which the hurlers dominate. We expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. The White Sox had 4 straight unders before yesterday's under and the Indians had seen 8 of their 10 games stay under the total before yesterday's game went over the total despite them being no-hit. Take the UNDER. |
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04-14-21 | Heat v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 106-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Denver Nuggets -4 over Miami Heat 10:10PM ET We have obviously been doing this for a very looooong time and one situation that has been profitable for us repeatedly is betting a team in their first game since losing a star player. The Nuggets suffered a huge blow when Jamaal Murray injured his knee late in their game Monday. Typically, what happens is that role player replacement rises to the occasion when they get extended minutes. The separator of great NBA players and say bench players is consistency. Monte Morris, Will Barton or Campazzo will step up and fill the Murray void for this game. There are other parts of this wager we like including an elite team like Denver coming off a bad loss on Monday to Golden State. The Nuggets also catch a scheduling break with the Heat coming off a game last night and playing their 5th game in just nine days. Unfortunately, the Heat also lost last night (1-5 ATS L6 following a double-digit loss) but the lack of rest in the higher altitude of Denver will be an issue. Miami is just 8-12 ATS against winning teams, 3-6 ATS when a dog of 4.5-points or less versus anyone. Denver is 18-10 SU at home with the 7th best average point differential in the league at +5.5PPG. The Nuggets are 6-1 SU their last seven at home and get an 8-point home win here, even without Murray. |
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04-14-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET - Jon Gray has good numbers so far this season but Dodger Stadium has been a house of horrors for him in his career. Gray is 1-5 at Dodger Stadium and has been pummeled in almost all those defeats. Another factor going against him here is that the Dodgers saw him in his first start this season which was at Coors Field. Though Gray fared well there it is worth noting that one of the big bats for the Dodgers that is currently out is Cody Bellinger but he went 0 for 4 that game. Also, Gray did not have to face Mookie Betts in that one but now he was back in the lineup yesterday and likely to play again today. Additionally, Justin Turner was rested yesterday but he'll be back in the lineup today. Yesterday 7 of the Dodgers 8 position players in the lineup had a hit and 3 had multi-hit games and 4 hit homers, including Betts. Remember Turner was not even in the lineup yesterday. The Dodgers are again stacked this season and are 9-2 so far on the campaign and 7 of the 9 wins were by a multi-run margin. Not including the Nationals (covid earlier so have played less games), the Rockies are the only team in the majors that has less than 4 wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 3-8 this season, the Rockies have lost 8 of their last 10 games and 6 of the 8 defeats were by a multi-run margin. Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Dustin May. He was fantastic in his first start this season at Oakland and, in his career, he has a 2.79 ERA and has held hitters to a .223 batting average. Colorado has scored a total of 4 runs in their 4 games thus far on the road trip and has lost all 4. The Dodgers are scoring an average of 6 runs per game this season and are a perfect 4-0 at home. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday. |
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04-13-21 | Hawks v. Raptors OVER 223 | Top | 108-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 223 Atlanta Hawks vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We feel the line on this game has been heavily influenced by each teams last games and is much lower than it should be. The Hawks are coming off a game against the struggling Hornets (7-3 Under their last 10 games) where they totaled just 206 points. The Raptors are coming off the defensive minded, slow paced Knicks and totaled just 198 total points. As far as the Hawks are concerned, they had gone Over in 7 of their last nine games prior to playing Charlotte. Atlanta games have totaled more than this number in 9 of their last ten. Atlanta is 8th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.155-points per possession. As we mentioned, the Raptors are coming off a very low scoring game but prior to that had put up 135-points against the Cavs and totaled 235 the game before against the Bulls. Toronto also has another 130-point game in their last six games, so they are more than capable of putting up a big number here. Toronto is top 13 of the league in offensive efficiency and pace. The first two meetings of this season between these two teams has resulted in 241 and 253 total points. Bet OVER here. |
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04-13-21 | Flyers +140 v. Capitals | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +140 over Washington Capitals at 7 PM ET - Yesterday is a perfect example of what you see happen a lot at this point in the season...upsets! 4 of the 7 NHL games were won by the underdogs and one of the only 3 that wasn't sure came very close! In fact the only game decided by just a single goal margin was one in which a favorite (Blackhawks) won in OT. So it was very close to a 5-2 day for dogs and, the point is, this is a lot of value and something that often starts happening late in the season and we only have about 4 weeks of regular season NHL left to go. There is a lot of zig zag late in the season. The Capitals are in a pattern of 2 wins - 2 losses - 2 wins - 2 losses and now enter this game off back to back wins including a huge one in their most recent game. That 8-1 win over Boston could absolutely leave Washington a little flat for this game. As for Flyers/Caps, these teams have met 4 times this season and the road team has won all 4 meetings! Philadelphia got a big win Saturday over Boston but then fell apart late versus Buffalo Sunday. Philly still enters today's action still alive in the playoff picture in the East and should prove to be the hungrier team in comparison with a Capitals team off a revenging win versus the big, bad Bruins which was also a potential first round playoff preview - that was a big game for Washington! Take the FLYERS |
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04-13-21 | Padres -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: San Diego Padres -1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Padres are 4-0 on the road this season. They have won 8 games overall and each of the last 7 victories have been by 2+ runs. There is no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs and getting a very fair -135 price on San Diego in this one. The Pirates have played 10 games this season and 9 of the 10 were games decided by 2 or more runs. The Padres have the top ranked bullpen in MLB so far with a 1.00 ERA. The Pirates bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors with a 5.88 ERA and San Diego took advantage in yesterday's game and can do the same today. However, they should not need to! The Padres can get the early jump on today's game by getting to Chad Kuhl early and often. He is having major command issues and already has 8 walks in 7 innings this season. Now he faces a Padres team that has been one of the best in the majors in terms of drawing walks early this season and also one that does not strike out much as they rank very well in that category as well. San Diego is averaging just 7 K's per game (most teams average 9 or 10!). What this means is that the Padres will be patient at the plate against Kuhl who is struggling with command and then when he does throw strikes San Diego is likely to put the ball in play. This likely often comes with guys on base due to all the walks. You can see where we going with this...some big innings likely in this one! The Pirates are 0-4 against teams with a winning record this season and they face a tall task facing Blake Snell here. He is still looking for his first regular season win since coming to San Diego but this is the perfect spot for it! Snell has been dominant, including spring training, as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 24 innings in spring training and regular season action combined for the Padres. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the San Diego Padres -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday. |
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04-12-21 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on: UNDER 226 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We really liked this Under bet when the opening number came out at 229.5 but has since been bet down to the current number. We still feel there is enough value and won’t be scared off by the move. The last time these two Western foes met was back in January, but they combined for just 218 total points. In that game the Warriors had Wiseman, Oubre Jr. and Paschall who combined for 40-points in that game and all three of those GST players are out tonight. Denver had Murray for that previous game, who is out tonight also, and he scored 17-points for the Nuggets. Denver struggled offensively yesterday scoring just 87-points in a loss to the Celtics. They’ll focus on their half-court offense here with a key advantage in the middle with Jokic against anyone the Warriors can throw at him. The Nuggets are playing their 4th game in just 7 days so fatigue will be a factor here. The Nuggets are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and will walk it up every chance they get. The Warriors are obviously explosive offensively with Steph Curry but the offense has had it’s ups-and-downs this season. In their last ten games alone, the Warriors have scored 111 or less in six games. Golden State has the 21st offensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season but are 9th defensively. Warriors 7-2 Under their last nine at home against a team with a winning record, Nuggets 5-0 Under run on the road versus teams with a winning home record. The bet here is UNDER! |
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04-12-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Atlanta vs Miami, Monday at 7:20 PM ET – The Braves are off a tough loss last night to the Phillies. It was a very entertaining game for the fans but likely a draining one for the teams and especially for an Atlanta team that felt they lost the game on a questionable safe call at the plate in the 9th inning. Now the Phillies leave town and the Braves welcome the Marlins to Atlanta. Could the Braves be a little flat at the plate after last night's game? Absolutely but, not only that, they would have their hands full in a normal situation too when it comes to having to face Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins staff ace has allowed just 6 hits while striking out 17 in 12 innings pitched his first two starts. Alcantara will be seeking revenge for a post-season loss in Atlanta in October. Looking at the two most recent regular season starts for Alcantara against the Braves he has allowed only 4 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings. The Braves are hitting only .214 this season and Alcantara will be very careful with red-hot Acuna and power-hitting Freeman. The latter of those two is hitting only .167 and really, other than Acuna, the Braves hitters are struggling. Travis d'Arnaud the lone other hitter that is even off to a respectable start at .267 thus far. As for the Marlins, their team is also struggling at the plate as they are hitting only .215 and they have a paltry .315 slugging percentage. The Braves bullpen has been one of the best in the league thus far with a 2.08 ERA and they will be supporting a starter, Huascar Ynoa, who had a fantastic first start this season. Ynoa went 5 scoreless innings and struck out 5 while allowing only 2 hits. The Marlins have scored 24 runs in their 8 games this season but 12 runs came in 1 game. In other 7 games the Marlins have averaged scoring only 1.7 runs per game. Look for Miami's struggles at the plate continue here but we also expect Alcantara, who absolutely appears to be on top of his game right now, to be super sharp and shut down the Braves in this one. The result is a well-pitched affair in this one in which the hurlers dominate. We expect this one to get to no more than 6 or 7 runs at best. Take the UNDER. |
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04-12-21 | Jets v. Senators OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 6 Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators, 7 PM ET - Even though the Senators have had a disappointing season and enter this game off 4 straight losses, they have not stopped fighting. Ottawa has scored an average of 3.4 goals per game over its last five games. All 4 of those games totaled at least 6 goals and that is the total we have to work with here. Winnipeg is off a shutout win at Montreal. It was a big 5-0 win and the type of victory that can leave a team a little slow on the skates in the early going in their next game. There is a natural let up off a big shutout win like that typically and this is particularly true in the defensive zone. That said, we would not be surprised to see the Senators enjoy some early scoring here but then the Jets will wake up and come roaring back. After all, Winnipeg is a high-priced road favorite for a good reason and the Jets have won 7 of the last 10 and 3 straight and have scored at least 4 goals in all 3 of the wins in the current hot streak. More of the same expected in this one. We like OVER here. |
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04-11-21 | Pacers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers may have won two straight games but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Orlando and Minnesota. The Pacers are 3-4 SU their last seven games and 7-7 their last fourteen on the road. Memphis is off a loss in New York but have won 4 of their last five games and are playing well. Memphis has the best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA over their last five games at 1.235PPP and a defensive efficiency rating of 1.124PPP which is 15th. In comparison the Pacers are in in the bottom ten in both OEFF and DEFF their last five games. Memphis is 14-10 ATS off a loss this season, 9-5 ATS at home in that situation. The Pacers are 8-15 ATS off a win this season, 2-8 ATS their last ten. Indiana embarrassed Memphis earlier this season at home 134-116 so expect payback here for the Grizzlies. |
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04-11-21 | Capitals -121 v. Bruins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Capitals Money Line -120 over Boston Bruins at 7 PM ET - Boston will start Vladar between the pipes here. He has not played in almost a week and the Bruins have lost each of his last two starts. Washington has the goalie edge with Vanecek getting the start in this one. He is off of a hard-fought win where he played better than the 3 goals allowed plus he allowed just 1 goal in each of his two prior starts. Look for Vanecek and the Capitals to get the better of the Bruins in this one. Boston is battling some key injuries to their defense plus continues to be without their top two goalies. This one is all Caps as they seek revenge for the 4-2 loss Thursday. They are happy to have the chance at immediate revenge and will make the most of it. Washington gets payback here. Take the CAPITALS |
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04-11-21 | Reds v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The over is now 7-1 in Reds games this season. Cincinnati leads the majors with a .312 batting average and .567 slugging percentage. The Reds lost 8 to 3 here yesterday but that was the first time this season they did not score at least 5 runs in a game. Cincinnati did have 12 hits in yesterday's loss and today they'll get their big runs again. They face Luke Weaver and he allowed 3 homers in his first start this season. One could chalk that up to pitching at Coors Field but in this case it truly is really not just that. Weaver has regressed as this is a guy who went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA last season and now he faces the #1 hitting team in the league thus far this season. The Diamondbacks do not have the impressive hitting stats that the Reds do this season but keep in mind, Arizona is known for hitting better at home in comparison with the road. Their two series this year were on the road and now since coming back home they have scored 13 runs in two games and pounded out 10 hits yesterday. The Diamondbacks will face Cincinnati's Jose De Leon. Though he did have a very strong first start to open the season he faced a Pirates team that most expect to be the worst team in the league this season and he was at home. De Leon has a 7.79 ERA in his MLB career and the last time he was a starter was 2016 and he compiled a 6.35 ERA in his 4 starts. Both starting pitchers are likely to get rocked here and the Reds bullpen has a 5.29 ERA so far this season. The Diamondbacks pen has been better but they now face the hottest hitting team in baseball a 3rd straight day. Look for plenty of scoring throughout this one as the over moves to 8-1 in Reds games on the season! Bet Over |
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04-10-21 | Wizards v. Suns -11.5 | Top | 106-134 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs Washington Wizards, 10:10 PM ET - As you know we love to play on elite teams when they are off a loss which is the case for Phoenix here. The Suns lost a tough one to the Clippers last time out and will be focused here for the Wizards who are coming off a game Friday night versus the Warriors. Washington is just 8-16 SU on the road this year with the 5th worst average differential of minus -6.9PPG. Phoenix is 19-8 SU at home with the 2nd best average point differential of +8.6PPG. The Suns hold a decisive advantage on both ends of the court with the 4th best offensive AND defensive efficiency in the league. In comparison the Wiz are 25th in NBA in road offensive efficiency and 19th in road defensive efficiency. Washington is 1-7 SU on the road their last eight and the lone win came against the worst team in the league the Orlando Magic. Phoenix is 28-7 SU their last 35 games and are 12-3 ATS when coming off a loss. Earlier this season the Suns lost in Washington by 21-points so expect payback here. |
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04-10-21 | Wild -119 v. Blues | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Wild Money Line -120 over St Louis Blues at 8 PM ET - The Wild got thoroughly embarrassed 9 to 1 by St Louis last night as we easily cashed in right here with the Blues. Of course there will be a huge response from Minnesota as a result in this one. The 9 goals were, as you would expect, the most allowed by Minnesota all season. Unlike last night's match-up of Binnington versus Kahkonen this one should be Husso versus Talbot and that favors the Wild in our opinion. Husso is 0-4 with a 4.78 GAA in his 4 home starts this season. Talbot has had only 1 rough start over his last 8 starts. He gave up 5 goals in that tough game but has allowed only 1.7 goals per game in the other 7 games. Quite consistent has been Talbot and he and the Wild come up huge here after last night's embarrassing loss which certainly did not sit well with this respectable team. They are happy to have the chance at immediate revenge and will make the most of it. Minnesota gets payback here. Take the WILD |
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04-10-21 | A's v. Astros -149 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -149 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
#924 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -150 over Oakland, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Astros won the first 5 match-ups between these teams this season by a combined score of 41 to 11. It was complete dominance. Yesterday the A's finally got some measure of revenge with a 6 to 2 win as they rallied for 5 runs in the last two innings. Though Houston's pen had a rare bad game yesterday they have had the much better bullpen (3.98 ERA) so far this season in comparison with Oakland's relief work (5.94 ERA). Also, the Astros are tops in the American League with a .282 batting average and .502 slugging percentage. The A's are dead last in the AL in both categories with a .175 batting average and .287 slugging percentage. In evaluating the starting pitching match-up here, Oakland's Frankie Montas seems like a shell of his 2019 version. In 2020 he dropped off and produced a 5.60 ERA. This season he seemed to carry the struggles right into 2021 as he got roughed up in the last two of his three spring outings and then was horrible in his regular season debut as he got rocked for 7 earned runs in less than 3 innings against the Dodgers. Montas has an ERA of 9.00 in his last 3 starts at Houston so facing the Astros at Minute Maid Park is unlikely to be the point he turns things around. The Astros start Jose Urquidy in this one. He faced the A's last week and had a rough first inning but retired 11 of the last 12 batters he faced and settled in nicely in that outing. Now Urquidy is at home where he has allowed just 26 hits in 34 and 1 / 3 innings in his first two seasons in the bigs. One of his few rough outings at home was against the A's last season but he showed he is past that with his performance last week at Oakland as he battled through the first inning and settled in and didn't give Oakland anything after that. More of that dominance expected here. We’ll grab the home team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet HOUSTON |
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04-09-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We like the early money/bets movement on this game and how the line fluctuated based on early action. It’s a solid indicator the play here is on the visiting Washington Wizards. Golden State is coming off a very big home win over the Milwaukee Bucks who were without Giannis for the game. Prior to that win though the Warriors had lost three in a row and 7 of their last eight so it’s not like they are currently playing well. Washington is coming off a much-needed win over the Magic and a big part of that success was the return of Beal and Hachimura which now give the Wiz their complete starting lineup. Beal is leading the league in scoring at over 31PPG and had a nice return game with 26-points on 11 of 19 shooting. Washington has been getting great play out of Russell Westbrook who is averaging a triple-double AGAIN this season but nobody is talking about it. We will play against a favorite (Warriors) who have an average negative differential of -10.2PPG their last five games. Beal and Russell keep this game close. Grab the points. |
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04-09-21 | Wild v. Blues +102 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 102 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Blues Money Line +105 over Minnesota Wild at 8 PM ET - Despite an incredible 37 to 11 edge in shots on goal, the Blues lost at Minnesota when these teams met two weeks ago. It was a 2-0 defeat despite that massive advantage. The Blues now come into this one fighting for their playoff lives and a 3-1 win over Vegas in their most recent game restored hope. St Louis is still getting strong goal-tending as Jordan Binnington has been playing well and has a .933 save percentage over his last 5 appearances. The Wild are off a win versus Colorado but that was at home. Minnesota is now back on the road where they have lost 7 of their last 10 games and plus they are playing right into the teeth of revenge in this one. St Louis gets payback here. Take the BLUES |
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04-09-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 4:35 PM ET - The weather will be cool at Oracle Park in San Francisco by the bay but the wind is expected to be blowing out to center field at least 20 mph in this one. Certainly this could help lift a few balls out of the yard if the pitchers make some mistakes and certainly we could see that in this one. As for the starters here, Austin Gomber had a very rough season opener and he has made only 5 starts at the MLB level since the end of the 2018 season. The Rockies southpaw is still a bit unproven as a starter and faces a big challenge here with a road start against a team making its home opener. Gomber walked 7 in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in his season opening start. The Giants have not been hitting the ball well for average early this season but do have 11 homers in 6 games and Gomber is having trouble with his location and now wanting to avoid walking too many. That said, you know what happens with mistake pitches over the plate and San Francisco will make him pay. The Giants start Johnny Cueto here. The veteran right-hander had a rough spring with a 9.82 ERA in his 3 starts. This seemed to carry into his shaky season opener as well as he was not overly impressive against the Mariners. A number of Rockies hitters have had good success against Cueto and you might think that is only due to seeing him at Coors Field. But he just faced Colorado here at Oracle Park last September and got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. The total set on this game by oddsmakers has been bouncing around but after opening at 8.5 went as high as a 9 and then settled in at a 8. We love the value here after the line move in particular and will not hesitate to get involved here. Look for both teams to hit the ball well on Friday in the series opener of this 3-game set. Bet Over |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -6 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - The Suns are in a tough scheduling situation here playing the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not only that but they are off a draining affair last night, an OT win over Utah. The “Big 3” of the Suns, Ayton, Paul and Booker all played 40+ minutes last night so fatigue will be an issue. The Clippers on the other hand are rested and will be focused to beat a team that is above them in the standings. The Suns are playing great, but the Clippers are finding their groove with wins in 8 of their last ten games. L.A. is 8-2 SU their last ten home games and all eight of those wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. In fact, the Clippers last eight home wins have come by an average of 19PPG. The Suns have an outstanding straight-up and spread record when playing without rest, but this situation is different as last night’s game was a huge home win over the West leading Jazz. The Clippers are getting healthy with the return of Beverly and starting to look like the contender in the West they were projected to be before the start of the season. Bet the Clippers here. |
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04-08-21 | Jets +108 v. Canadiens | Top | 4-2 | Win | 108 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets Money Line +105 over Montreal Canadiens at 7 PM ET - The Canadiens are in the 2nd night of a back to back. Montreal has only won once the last four times they have played the 2nd game of a back to back and that lone win came in the shootout. Making this situation even tougher on the Canadiens is the fact that their top goalie, Carey Price is dealing with an upper body injury. He did not even travel with the team to Toronto for last night's game. Though there is a chance could play tonight, he would not be 100 percent if he does. The only other options for Montreal include Cayden Primeau or Charlie Lindgren or simply starting Jake Allen again but playing back to back nights is tough on a netminder and Allen started against the Maple Leafs last night. On top of all this, though the Jets recently lost Blake Wheeler his +/- on the season is -15 and he is not nearly the loss to Winnipeg that Brendan Gallagher's absence is to the Canadiens. Gallagher is a key winger for Montreal and has a +/- of +11 on the season and he is out with a broken thumb. If Allen gets the start in goal for the Canadiens here, it is worth noting he has won only 1 of his 5 home decisions this season. As for Winnipeg, they are starting Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes and he is one of the top goalies in hockey. Also, the Jets have won each of their last 4 road games that he has started and they won those by a combined 17 to 4 score. Another dominating win expected here. While the Canadiens are in a tough back to back, the Jets are very well rested as their most recent game was Monday and that match-up followed having Saturday and Sunday off too. Winnipeg lost their most recent meeting here in Montreal in ugly fashion as it was a 7-1 defeat despite outshooting the Canadiens. This is now the ideal set-up for big-time payback from the Jets and they will take full advantage of the situation and should roll big in this game! Take the JETS |
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04-08-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – St Louis vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 4:15 PM ET – The Cardinals and Brewers have both struggled at the plate early this season. St Louis is off a 7-0 win but had averaged scoring just 3 runs per game in 3 games prior to yesterday's big victory at Miami. The Cards are hitting only .206 on the season and the Brewers have been even worse as they are hitting only .171 on the season. Milwaukee has scored an average of only 2.6 runs per game their last 5 games. Each team has been getting solid pitching recently as well. Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals in their home opener today. Though he got roughed up in the season opener he looked excellent in spring training and is a 39 year old veteran who knows how to adjust after a rare tough outing. Wainwright not only dominated in spring training, he is known for being great in day game action. Wainwright went 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and .134 BAA in day games last season. The year before that it was 6-1, 1.61, and .210 for more excellence under the sun in 2019. Wainwright also is known for pitching great at home where he has gone a combined 11-6 the past two seasons with an ERA under the 3.00 mark. As a result, the Brewers run-scoring woes should continue here and the Cardinals bullpen is fresh and has fared well in recent games. The Cardinals bats are also likely to be stifled here as the Brewers have been getting great pitching and this includes from Corbin Burnes. The righty was a hard-luck loser in his first start as he struck out 11 in 6 and 1 / 3 innings and allowed just 1 hit in the outing. That is a tough loss for sure but the Brewers could give him no run support and that is likely to again be an issue here. Look for another strong start from him as Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA and a .174 BAA last season as he returned to the form of his rookie season of 2018 when he went 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a .199 BAA. Burnes was fantastic this spring too and carried that right into his dominating first start this season as well. We expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. Take the UNDER. |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns +2 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 over Utah Jazz, 10:10 PM ET - This is obviously the biggest game on the schedule with the top two teams in the West squaring off. Both teams are red hot with the Suns coming into this game with wins in 18 of their last twenty-two games, while the Jazz have won 9 of their last ten. Phoenix has been a home dog just three times this year, once was very early in the season before we know just how good they were going to be. Phoenix is 18-8 SU at home this season with the second-best average margin of victory of +8.8PPG. They are 2nd in offensive efficiency at home and 6th defensively. Utah has been even more dominating at home but not as much on the road where they are 16-10 SU on the season with the 6th best average point differential of +4.1PPG. In fact, the Jazz are slightly better than league average in road defensive efficiency ratings at 14th. Utah is just 1-6 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record. The Suns have won 6 straight home games and are 9-2 ATS their last eleven as a dog. Phoenix in a close win. |
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04-07-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-110) over Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:35 PM ET - Even though it is early in the season the performance of the bats of these two teams so far this season is not a huge surprise. The Dodgers are the defending World Series Champs while the A's were one of the worst hitting teams in the American League last season. Thus far this season, the Dodgers rank 1st in the majors with a .327 batting average while the Athletics rank dead last in the AL with a .169 batting average. That trending is likely to continue here based on this pitching match-up. Even though Oakland's Jesus Luzardo has electric stuff he still is a young pitcher that has issues with his command at times. Last season when he faced the Dodgers out of the pen he allowed 3 earned runs on 3 hits and 3 walks in 3 innings on the hill. In his first start this season he piled up 8 strikeouts but allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits (including 2 homers) in 5 innings of work. More struggles likely today for Luzardo while we expect the Dodgers Trevor Bauer to cruise in this one. In his first start this season Bauer no-hit the Rockies through 6 innings and that start was at Coors Field! He did get into some trouble then and exited with one out in the 7th but he piled up 10 strikeouts in a very impressive effort in a tough ballpark to pitch in. Bauer got the win there to open up this season and this is a guy who had a 1.73 ERA last season with the Reds as he returned to the form that saw him go 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA with the Indians in 2018. When he is on, Bauer is a very tough pitcher and he piled up strikeouts this spring too and now will take advantage of an Oakland team struggling at the plate. The A's do have a solid bullpen but so too do the Dodgers. That said, with the other key edges (hitting and starting pitching) going to the road team in this one we are grabbing the road team on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in afternoon action Wednesday. |
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04-06-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Portland for a couple different reasons. The Blazers are off a 133-85 blowout of the Thunder and will come into this game with a false sense of security. OKC is 20-30 SU on the season and easily one of the worst teams in the NBA. In fact, the Blazers are 4-1 SU their last five games, but all four wins have come against teams with a combined 86-122 record. Their loss in that five-game stretch came by 18 to Milwaukee who is on the same level as this Clippers team. The other part of this equation is Jusif Nurkic, the Blazers center, who played in the last five games but is out with another injury here. When betting the Clippers, you need to know who’s playing and who isn’t but tonight they will have both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup which is key. Los Angeles is 18-8 SU at home on the season with the 4th best home point differential in the league at +7.4PPG. Portland has a winning record of 16-10 SU on the year against the West, but their margin of victory is a negative -0.2PPG. In comparison the Clippers are 19-10 against the West with a plus +4.5PPG average MOV. The Clippers are 20-13 as a favorite of 5 or more points this season. Bet the Clippers. |
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04-06-21 | Capitals v. Islanders -124 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Money Line -125 over Washington Capitals at 7 PM ET - The Islanders are 15-1-2 at home this season. Yes the Capitals have revenge for an 8-4 beating on Long Island last week but revenge can only take you so far. The Isles are coached by Barry Trotz and he is the one that led Washington to the Stanley Cup Championship just 3 years ago. He does not like to lose to his former team and he'll have the Islanders ready again here. The Islanders can tie the Caps at the top of the division standings with a regulation win here so there is no shortage of motivation here for the home team even though it is the road team with revenge on their minds. Another factor to like here is that, even though the Capitals are off back to back wins they were against a struggling Devils team. Not only that, the first win was after regulation and the second win was a 5-4 win but Washington was outshot 39 to 19 and was very fortunate to emerge victorious in that one. The Capitals will not be so fortunate here and the Islanders get a big win to continue their season-long home dominance and move into a first-place tie with Washington in the standings. Take the ISLANDERS |
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04-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 8 Runs – Washington vs Atlanta, Tuesday at 4 PM ET – The Braves are starting Drew Smyly in this one and he wrapped up last season striking out 38 over his final 22 innings. When he is "on" he is a crafty lefty and he should hold a couple key edges here. One is that he has spent most of his career in the American League so the Nationals have very little experience against him. Another reason the Washington hitters will be at a disadvantage in this one is that the covid protocols delayed their season up to this point. So no game action since spring training ended over a week ago. Essentially the Nats were handed an unwanted week off right at the beginning of the new season. The pitchers are set to dominate in this one because Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nationals. He piled up 20 strikeouts and held batters to a .180 batting average in his spring training starts as he compiled 13.2 innings. Scherzer has allowed 2 earned runs or less in his first start of a year in 6 of the last 7 seasons. In fact, in those 6 starts he has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs or an average of 1 per game. Considering one of the Braves strengths this season is the bullpen and the fact that the Nationals have solid late-inning arms in the bullpen and Scherzer can work deep into this game, there is likely to be very little scoring in this one. The Nats bats haven't seen game action in over a week and the Braves bats were stifled in their season opening series. Atlanta was held to just 3 runs total in their 3-game season opening series at Philly. The average score of the 3 games was Phillies 3, Braves 1 and we expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. Take the UNDER. |
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04-05-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flames +142 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Calgary Flames Money Line +145 over Toronto Maple Leafs at 9:30 PM ET - This is the 2nd game of a back to back situation and the Flames used #2 goalie Rittich last night which means it will be #1 netminder Markstrom tonight. The last time that Calgary beat Toronto it was the last time Markstrom started against them. Look for him to get the job done again in this one. The Flames are 3-1 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The most recent time was also a situation in which they were at home, in the 2nd game of a back to back, and facing the same opponent that just beat them. They won that game 4-2 and we expect a similar result here. Toronto is 1-4 the last 5 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. Given all of the above we like the situational value with the home dog here with a Calgary team hungry to gain points on the #4 spot in the division as they look to remain alive in the playoff hunt. Take the FLAMES |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor +4.5 over Gonzaga, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - Our power ratings have Gonzaga as a slight 2 point favorite on a neutral court so we feel there is value with Baylor here. We’ve spoken of the Bears Covid break a number of times this tourney and we feel that situation has this team undervalued. Prior to their 3-week hiatus we had Baylor and the Zags rated almost dead even with our power ratings. Baylor was 17-0 before their break with 15 of those wins coming by double digits and the other 2 coming by 8 points each. They were dominant in the Big 12, one of the top few leagues on the country. They lost much of their momentum not playing or practicing for the 3 week span in February and lost 2 games leading into the Big Dance. They have since regained their form and rolled through the NCAA tourney winning 5 games by an average of 15 PPG including topping 4 top 20 teams (Ken Pom ratings). They led by at least 18 points in 4 of their 5 tourney games and their largest deficit has been just 7 points. The Bears defense has been fantastic holding 4 of their 5 opponents under 1.00 points per possession and they’ve been lock down from beyond the arc allowing only 27% in the tourney. Offensively they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in 3-point percentage. The Bears have already faced 3 of the top 15 defenses in the nation in the NCAA tourney and scored 76, 78, and 81 points in those 3 games and averaged at least 1.19 PPP in each of those 3 games. They are tough to stop with 5 regulars hitting at least 39% from behind the arc. Gonzaga showed some vulnerability to a solid 3-point shooting team on Saturday barely getting by UCLA in OT and allowing the Bruins to hit 47% of their 3’s. UCLA was ranked 35th nationally in 3-point percentage and the Zags had trouble containing their guards and now they face the best 3-point shooting team in the nation with multiple top notch guards including All Americans Butler and Mitchell. Gonzaga hasn’t seen a team that shoots this well all season long. They have faced just ONE team this year that ranks inside the top 20 in three point shooting and that was Iowa early in the season and the Hawkeyes scored 88 points on them. Gonzaga is great offensively as well but the way the Baylor defense has been playing, we like them to be able to do enough on that end of the court to stay in this game the entire way. The way to potentially beat Gonzaga is to keep up with them offensively which UCLA nearly did on Saturday. Baylor is a better offensive team than UCLA and they’ll give the Bulldogs all they can handle here. The Bears haven’t been an underdog the entire season and their lowest number as a favorite was -4 and that was vs a difficult Big 12 slate. Now they are getting +4.5 which is a full 8.5 points off their lowest spread of the season. We fully believe Baylor has a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the generous points. |
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04-05-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: New York Mets (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Phillies are 3-0 to start the season but the Mets are a -200 on the money line for a reason. Yes the Mets series with the Nationals was postponed by Washington's covid situation, but that means Jacob deGrom is getting this start. He is completely likely to shut down the Phillies. The situation with Philadelphia is that their 3-0 start is because of their starting pitching but now they go from Nola, Wheeler and Eflin to a #4 guy (Matt Moore) making his first MLB start in two years. He last pitched at the MLB level in April of 2019 and that was only 10 innings worth. He spent last season pitching in Japan. In his most recent full seasons at the MLB level, Moore went 3-8 with a 6.79 ERA in 2018 and 6-15 with a 5.52 ERA in 2017. Now the Phillies left-hander faces a Mets team expected by many to win the NL East this season. That being said, Philadelphia is likely in trouble here as the Phillies position players are hitting only .255 with just 5 extra base hits in 3 games. As you can see, the bats are not what is carrying this team to a 3-0 start and now they face the unenviable task of facing a hurler who has won the NL Cy Young 2 of the last 3 seasons. The Mets deGrom has compiled an ERA under 2.44 for 3 straight seasons and has held opponents under a .200 batting average the last 3 seasons combined. The Mets are 14-3 in his 17 career starts against Philadelphia and he is 8-1 with a 2.38 ERA in these outings. Blowout alert! Bet the New York Mets -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday. |
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04-04-21 | Magic v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214 Orlando Magic @ Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - The last place the Magic need to play right now is in the higher altitude against the red-hot Denver Nuggets. The Magic currently have 8 healthy players and it showed how tough it is to play an NBA game with a limited roster in a blowout loss to the Jazz. The Magic scored just 91-points in that game and have scored 103 or less in regulation in four straight games. Orlando has failed to reach 100 points in 5 of their last ten games and in their last five games they have the 4th worst offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. Orlando gutted their roster before the trade deadline which included trading Aaron Gordon to this Nuggets team. Denver is coming off a big win over the Clippers and will look past this Orlando team that is really struggling. The Nuggets are the second slowest paced team in the NBA and prefer a half-court type game where Jokic is more effective. Denver doesn’t have great defensive efficiency numbers, but they are 9th in points allowed per game at 110PPG. Orlando’s offense is 29th in the NBA at just 104.2PPG and that’s when they had a much better roster. According to our math model this game should end with 209 total points. Bet Under |