Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-09-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We like the early money/bets movement on this game and how the line fluctuated based on early action. It’s a solid indicator the play here is on the visiting Washington Wizards. Golden State is coming off a very big home win over the Milwaukee Bucks who were without Giannis for the game. Prior to that win though the Warriors had lost three in a row and 7 of their last eight so it’s not like they are currently playing well. Washington is coming off a much-needed win over the Magic and a big part of that success was the return of Beal and Hachimura which now give the Wiz their complete starting lineup. Beal is leading the league in scoring at over 31PPG and had a nice return game with 26-points on 11 of 19 shooting. Washington has been getting great play out of Russell Westbrook who is averaging a triple-double AGAIN this season but nobody is talking about it. We will play against a favorite (Warriors) who have an average negative differential of -10.2PPG their last five games. Beal and Russell keep this game close. Grab the points. |
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04-09-21 | Wild v. Blues +102 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 102 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Blues Money Line +105 over Minnesota Wild at 8 PM ET - Despite an incredible 37 to 11 edge in shots on goal, the Blues lost at Minnesota when these teams met two weeks ago. It was a 2-0 defeat despite that massive advantage. The Blues now come into this one fighting for their playoff lives and a 3-1 win over Vegas in their most recent game restored hope. St Louis is still getting strong goal-tending as Jordan Binnington has been playing well and has a .933 save percentage over his last 5 appearances. The Wild are off a win versus Colorado but that was at home. Minnesota is now back on the road where they have lost 7 of their last 10 games and plus they are playing right into the teeth of revenge in this one. St Louis gets payback here. Take the BLUES |
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04-09-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 4:35 PM ET - The weather will be cool at Oracle Park in San Francisco by the bay but the wind is expected to be blowing out to center field at least 20 mph in this one. Certainly this could help lift a few balls out of the yard if the pitchers make some mistakes and certainly we could see that in this one. As for the starters here, Austin Gomber had a very rough season opener and he has made only 5 starts at the MLB level since the end of the 2018 season. The Rockies southpaw is still a bit unproven as a starter and faces a big challenge here with a road start against a team making its home opener. Gomber walked 7 in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in his season opening start. The Giants have not been hitting the ball well for average early this season but do have 11 homers in 6 games and Gomber is having trouble with his location and now wanting to avoid walking too many. That said, you know what happens with mistake pitches over the plate and San Francisco will make him pay. The Giants start Johnny Cueto here. The veteran right-hander had a rough spring with a 9.82 ERA in his 3 starts. This seemed to carry into his shaky season opener as well as he was not overly impressive against the Mariners. A number of Rockies hitters have had good success against Cueto and you might think that is only due to seeing him at Coors Field. But he just faced Colorado here at Oracle Park last September and got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. The total set on this game by oddsmakers has been bouncing around but after opening at 8.5 went as high as a 9 and then settled in at a 8. We love the value here after the line move in particular and will not hesitate to get involved here. Look for both teams to hit the ball well on Friday in the series opener of this 3-game set. Bet Over |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -6 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - The Suns are in a tough scheduling situation here playing the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not only that but they are off a draining affair last night, an OT win over Utah. The “Big 3” of the Suns, Ayton, Paul and Booker all played 40+ minutes last night so fatigue will be an issue. The Clippers on the other hand are rested and will be focused to beat a team that is above them in the standings. The Suns are playing great, but the Clippers are finding their groove with wins in 8 of their last ten games. L.A. is 8-2 SU their last ten home games and all eight of those wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. In fact, the Clippers last eight home wins have come by an average of 19PPG. The Suns have an outstanding straight-up and spread record when playing without rest, but this situation is different as last night’s game was a huge home win over the West leading Jazz. The Clippers are getting healthy with the return of Beverly and starting to look like the contender in the West they were projected to be before the start of the season. Bet the Clippers here. |
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04-08-21 | Jets +108 v. Canadiens | Top | 4-2 | Win | 108 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets Money Line +105 over Montreal Canadiens at 7 PM ET - The Canadiens are in the 2nd night of a back to back. Montreal has only won once the last four times they have played the 2nd game of a back to back and that lone win came in the shootout. Making this situation even tougher on the Canadiens is the fact that their top goalie, Carey Price is dealing with an upper body injury. He did not even travel with the team to Toronto for last night's game. Though there is a chance could play tonight, he would not be 100 percent if he does. The only other options for Montreal include Cayden Primeau or Charlie Lindgren or simply starting Jake Allen again but playing back to back nights is tough on a netminder and Allen started against the Maple Leafs last night. On top of all this, though the Jets recently lost Blake Wheeler his +/- on the season is -15 and he is not nearly the loss to Winnipeg that Brendan Gallagher's absence is to the Canadiens. Gallagher is a key winger for Montreal and has a +/- of +11 on the season and he is out with a broken thumb. If Allen gets the start in goal for the Canadiens here, it is worth noting he has won only 1 of his 5 home decisions this season. As for Winnipeg, they are starting Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes and he is one of the top goalies in hockey. Also, the Jets have won each of their last 4 road games that he has started and they won those by a combined 17 to 4 score. Another dominating win expected here. While the Canadiens are in a tough back to back, the Jets are very well rested as their most recent game was Monday and that match-up followed having Saturday and Sunday off too. Winnipeg lost their most recent meeting here in Montreal in ugly fashion as it was a 7-1 defeat despite outshooting the Canadiens. This is now the ideal set-up for big-time payback from the Jets and they will take full advantage of the situation and should roll big in this game! Take the JETS |
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04-08-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – St Louis vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 4:15 PM ET – The Cardinals and Brewers have both struggled at the plate early this season. St Louis is off a 7-0 win but had averaged scoring just 3 runs per game in 3 games prior to yesterday's big victory at Miami. The Cards are hitting only .206 on the season and the Brewers have been even worse as they are hitting only .171 on the season. Milwaukee has scored an average of only 2.6 runs per game their last 5 games. Each team has been getting solid pitching recently as well. Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals in their home opener today. Though he got roughed up in the season opener he looked excellent in spring training and is a 39 year old veteran who knows how to adjust after a rare tough outing. Wainwright not only dominated in spring training, he is known for being great in day game action. Wainwright went 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and .134 BAA in day games last season. The year before that it was 6-1, 1.61, and .210 for more excellence under the sun in 2019. Wainwright also is known for pitching great at home where he has gone a combined 11-6 the past two seasons with an ERA under the 3.00 mark. As a result, the Brewers run-scoring woes should continue here and the Cardinals bullpen is fresh and has fared well in recent games. The Cardinals bats are also likely to be stifled here as the Brewers have been getting great pitching and this includes from Corbin Burnes. The righty was a hard-luck loser in his first start as he struck out 11 in 6 and 1 / 3 innings and allowed just 1 hit in the outing. That is a tough loss for sure but the Brewers could give him no run support and that is likely to again be an issue here. Look for another strong start from him as Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA and a .174 BAA last season as he returned to the form of his rookie season of 2018 when he went 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a .199 BAA. Burnes was fantastic this spring too and carried that right into his dominating first start this season as well. We expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. Take the UNDER. |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns +2 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 over Utah Jazz, 10:10 PM ET - This is obviously the biggest game on the schedule with the top two teams in the West squaring off. Both teams are red hot with the Suns coming into this game with wins in 18 of their last twenty-two games, while the Jazz have won 9 of their last ten. Phoenix has been a home dog just three times this year, once was very early in the season before we know just how good they were going to be. Phoenix is 18-8 SU at home this season with the second-best average margin of victory of +8.8PPG. They are 2nd in offensive efficiency at home and 6th defensively. Utah has been even more dominating at home but not as much on the road where they are 16-10 SU on the season with the 6th best average point differential of +4.1PPG. In fact, the Jazz are slightly better than league average in road defensive efficiency ratings at 14th. Utah is just 1-6 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record. The Suns have won 6 straight home games and are 9-2 ATS their last eleven as a dog. Phoenix in a close win. |
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04-07-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-110) over Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:35 PM ET - Even though it is early in the season the performance of the bats of these two teams so far this season is not a huge surprise. The Dodgers are the defending World Series Champs while the A's were one of the worst hitting teams in the American League last season. Thus far this season, the Dodgers rank 1st in the majors with a .327 batting average while the Athletics rank dead last in the AL with a .169 batting average. That trending is likely to continue here based on this pitching match-up. Even though Oakland's Jesus Luzardo has electric stuff he still is a young pitcher that has issues with his command at times. Last season when he faced the Dodgers out of the pen he allowed 3 earned runs on 3 hits and 3 walks in 3 innings on the hill. In his first start this season he piled up 8 strikeouts but allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits (including 2 homers) in 5 innings of work. More struggles likely today for Luzardo while we expect the Dodgers Trevor Bauer to cruise in this one. In his first start this season Bauer no-hit the Rockies through 6 innings and that start was at Coors Field! He did get into some trouble then and exited with one out in the 7th but he piled up 10 strikeouts in a very impressive effort in a tough ballpark to pitch in. Bauer got the win there to open up this season and this is a guy who had a 1.73 ERA last season with the Reds as he returned to the form that saw him go 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA with the Indians in 2018. When he is on, Bauer is a very tough pitcher and he piled up strikeouts this spring too and now will take advantage of an Oakland team struggling at the plate. The A's do have a solid bullpen but so too do the Dodgers. That said, with the other key edges (hitting and starting pitching) going to the road team in this one we are grabbing the road team on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in afternoon action Wednesday. |
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04-06-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Portland for a couple different reasons. The Blazers are off a 133-85 blowout of the Thunder and will come into this game with a false sense of security. OKC is 20-30 SU on the season and easily one of the worst teams in the NBA. In fact, the Blazers are 4-1 SU their last five games, but all four wins have come against teams with a combined 86-122 record. Their loss in that five-game stretch came by 18 to Milwaukee who is on the same level as this Clippers team. The other part of this equation is Jusif Nurkic, the Blazers center, who played in the last five games but is out with another injury here. When betting the Clippers, you need to know who’s playing and who isn’t but tonight they will have both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup which is key. Los Angeles is 18-8 SU at home on the season with the 4th best home point differential in the league at +7.4PPG. Portland has a winning record of 16-10 SU on the year against the West, but their margin of victory is a negative -0.2PPG. In comparison the Clippers are 19-10 against the West with a plus +4.5PPG average MOV. The Clippers are 20-13 as a favorite of 5 or more points this season. Bet the Clippers. |
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04-06-21 | Capitals v. Islanders -124 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Money Line -125 over Washington Capitals at 7 PM ET - The Islanders are 15-1-2 at home this season. Yes the Capitals have revenge for an 8-4 beating on Long Island last week but revenge can only take you so far. The Isles are coached by Barry Trotz and he is the one that led Washington to the Stanley Cup Championship just 3 years ago. He does not like to lose to his former team and he'll have the Islanders ready again here. The Islanders can tie the Caps at the top of the division standings with a regulation win here so there is no shortage of motivation here for the home team even though it is the road team with revenge on their minds. Another factor to like here is that, even though the Capitals are off back to back wins they were against a struggling Devils team. Not only that, the first win was after regulation and the second win was a 5-4 win but Washington was outshot 39 to 19 and was very fortunate to emerge victorious in that one. The Capitals will not be so fortunate here and the Islanders get a big win to continue their season-long home dominance and move into a first-place tie with Washington in the standings. Take the ISLANDERS |
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04-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 8 Runs – Washington vs Atlanta, Tuesday at 4 PM ET – The Braves are starting Drew Smyly in this one and he wrapped up last season striking out 38 over his final 22 innings. When he is "on" he is a crafty lefty and he should hold a couple key edges here. One is that he has spent most of his career in the American League so the Nationals have very little experience against him. Another reason the Washington hitters will be at a disadvantage in this one is that the covid protocols delayed their season up to this point. So no game action since spring training ended over a week ago. Essentially the Nats were handed an unwanted week off right at the beginning of the new season. The pitchers are set to dominate in this one because Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nationals. He piled up 20 strikeouts and held batters to a .180 batting average in his spring training starts as he compiled 13.2 innings. Scherzer has allowed 2 earned runs or less in his first start of a year in 6 of the last 7 seasons. In fact, in those 6 starts he has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs or an average of 1 per game. Considering one of the Braves strengths this season is the bullpen and the fact that the Nationals have solid late-inning arms in the bullpen and Scherzer can work deep into this game, there is likely to be very little scoring in this one. The Nats bats haven't seen game action in over a week and the Braves bats were stifled in their season opening series. Atlanta was held to just 3 runs total in their 3-game season opening series at Philly. The average score of the 3 games was Phillies 3, Braves 1 and we expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. Take the UNDER. |
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04-05-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flames +142 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Calgary Flames Money Line +145 over Toronto Maple Leafs at 9:30 PM ET - This is the 2nd game of a back to back situation and the Flames used #2 goalie Rittich last night which means it will be #1 netminder Markstrom tonight. The last time that Calgary beat Toronto it was the last time Markstrom started against them. Look for him to get the job done again in this one. The Flames are 3-1 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The most recent time was also a situation in which they were at home, in the 2nd game of a back to back, and facing the same opponent that just beat them. They won that game 4-2 and we expect a similar result here. Toronto is 1-4 the last 5 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. Given all of the above we like the situational value with the home dog here with a Calgary team hungry to gain points on the #4 spot in the division as they look to remain alive in the playoff hunt. Take the FLAMES |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor +4.5 over Gonzaga, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - Our power ratings have Gonzaga as a slight 2 point favorite on a neutral court so we feel there is value with Baylor here. We’ve spoken of the Bears Covid break a number of times this tourney and we feel that situation has this team undervalued. Prior to their 3-week hiatus we had Baylor and the Zags rated almost dead even with our power ratings. Baylor was 17-0 before their break with 15 of those wins coming by double digits and the other 2 coming by 8 points each. They were dominant in the Big 12, one of the top few leagues on the country. They lost much of their momentum not playing or practicing for the 3 week span in February and lost 2 games leading into the Big Dance. They have since regained their form and rolled through the NCAA tourney winning 5 games by an average of 15 PPG including topping 4 top 20 teams (Ken Pom ratings). They led by at least 18 points in 4 of their 5 tourney games and their largest deficit has been just 7 points. The Bears defense has been fantastic holding 4 of their 5 opponents under 1.00 points per possession and they’ve been lock down from beyond the arc allowing only 27% in the tourney. Offensively they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in 3-point percentage. The Bears have already faced 3 of the top 15 defenses in the nation in the NCAA tourney and scored 76, 78, and 81 points in those 3 games and averaged at least 1.19 PPP in each of those 3 games. They are tough to stop with 5 regulars hitting at least 39% from behind the arc. Gonzaga showed some vulnerability to a solid 3-point shooting team on Saturday barely getting by UCLA in OT and allowing the Bruins to hit 47% of their 3’s. UCLA was ranked 35th nationally in 3-point percentage and the Zags had trouble containing their guards and now they face the best 3-point shooting team in the nation with multiple top notch guards including All Americans Butler and Mitchell. Gonzaga hasn’t seen a team that shoots this well all season long. They have faced just ONE team this year that ranks inside the top 20 in three point shooting and that was Iowa early in the season and the Hawkeyes scored 88 points on them. Gonzaga is great offensively as well but the way the Baylor defense has been playing, we like them to be able to do enough on that end of the court to stay in this game the entire way. The way to potentially beat Gonzaga is to keep up with them offensively which UCLA nearly did on Saturday. Baylor is a better offensive team than UCLA and they’ll give the Bulldogs all they can handle here. The Bears haven’t been an underdog the entire season and their lowest number as a favorite was -4 and that was vs a difficult Big 12 slate. Now they are getting +4.5 which is a full 8.5 points off their lowest spread of the season. We fully believe Baylor has a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the generous points. |
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04-05-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: New York Mets (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Phillies are 3-0 to start the season but the Mets are a -200 on the money line for a reason. Yes the Mets series with the Nationals was postponed by Washington's covid situation, but that means Jacob deGrom is getting this start. He is completely likely to shut down the Phillies. The situation with Philadelphia is that their 3-0 start is because of their starting pitching but now they go from Nola, Wheeler and Eflin to a #4 guy (Matt Moore) making his first MLB start in two years. He last pitched at the MLB level in April of 2019 and that was only 10 innings worth. He spent last season pitching in Japan. In his most recent full seasons at the MLB level, Moore went 3-8 with a 6.79 ERA in 2018 and 6-15 with a 5.52 ERA in 2017. Now the Phillies left-hander faces a Mets team expected by many to win the NL East this season. That being said, Philadelphia is likely in trouble here as the Phillies position players are hitting only .255 with just 5 extra base hits in 3 games. As you can see, the bats are not what is carrying this team to a 3-0 start and now they face the unenviable task of facing a hurler who has won the NL Cy Young 2 of the last 3 seasons. The Mets deGrom has compiled an ERA under 2.44 for 3 straight seasons and has held opponents under a .200 batting average the last 3 seasons combined. The Mets are 14-3 in his 17 career starts against Philadelphia and he is 8-1 with a 2.38 ERA in these outings. Blowout alert! Bet the New York Mets -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday. |
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04-04-21 | Magic v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214 Orlando Magic @ Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - The last place the Magic need to play right now is in the higher altitude against the red-hot Denver Nuggets. The Magic currently have 8 healthy players and it showed how tough it is to play an NBA game with a limited roster in a blowout loss to the Jazz. The Magic scored just 91-points in that game and have scored 103 or less in regulation in four straight games. Orlando has failed to reach 100 points in 5 of their last ten games and in their last five games they have the 4th worst offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. Orlando gutted their roster before the trade deadline which included trading Aaron Gordon to this Nuggets team. Denver is coming off a big win over the Clippers and will look past this Orlando team that is really struggling. The Nuggets are the second slowest paced team in the NBA and prefer a half-court type game where Jokic is more effective. Denver doesn’t have great defensive efficiency numbers, but they are 9th in points allowed per game at 110PPG. Orlando’s offense is 29th in the NBA at just 104.2PPG and that’s when they had a much better roster. According to our math model this game should end with 209 total points. Bet Under |
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04-04-21 | Stars v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 5.5 Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 PM ET - These teams battled to a 3-2 final yesterday in a game that fell just short of going over the total. Now, in a back to back situation that stresses the goalie situation, we like the over here. The Stars Ben Bishop has been out with an injury and Anton Khudobin has been in covid protocol. That is why Jake Oettinger made the start between the pipes yesterday but now what will Dallas do in the crease in this back to back spot? Exactly! That said we also like the fact that the Hurricanes fired away with 43 shots on goal in yesterday's loss. After falling just short of the win yesterday Carolina will again be peppering the Stars netminder with shots in this one. We are expecting James Reimer to be in goal for the Canes here since it was Alex Nedeljkovic yesterday and Petr Mrazek has been out with an injury. The over is 11-4 in Reimer's starts this season. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a 3-0 run in games between these clubs and each game totaled at least 7 goals. Look for this one to as well and we only need get to 6 to cash this ticket at over 5.5 goals. We like OVER here. |
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04-04-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 11.5 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 3:10 PM ET - These teams have combined for 41 runs on 69 hits so far in this series. That is an average of nearly 14 runs per game on 23 hits per game. On a warm afternoon in Denver with high temperatures expected near 80 degrees we expect the bats to stay hot in this one. Neither team has been held below 5 runs in any of the 3 games thus far in the series. If that situation remains the same, the worst we can do here is a 6-5 final which was indeed the final score of yesterday's game which stayed just under the total of 11.5 runs. However, we absolutely expect much more than that here as both bullpens have already had plenty of work in this series with all the runs being scored thus far in this series and this now being a 4th game in a 4 day situation for each bullpen to contend with. As for the starters here, Austin Gomber faces the defending World Series Champs and he has made only 4 starts at the MLB level since the end of the 2018 season. The Rockies southpaw is still a bit unproven as a starter and faces a big challenge here with a day game start on a warm afternoon at Coors Field against one of the toughest lineups in baseball. The Dodgers start Julio Urias here and he had a 5.40 ERA vs the Rockies last season, a 4.82 ERA in Coors Fields outings in 2019, and prior to that made a start here in 2017 and allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings. In his lone appearance at Coors Field the year before, his rookie season of 2016, Urias allowed 3 earned runs in 3 innings. The fact is that, like most pitchers, Urias stuff just doesn't have the same action in the thin air of Coors Field that it has in other venues. Look for both teams to continue to hit the ball well on Sunday in the series finale of this 4-game set. Bet Over |
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04-03-21 | Twins v. Brewers -130 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee -130 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Brewers rallied for 3 in the bottom of the 9th to tie up Thursday's season opener. Then in the top of the 10th Josh Hader struck out the side as he continues to be a dominant closer for Milwaukee and they won it in the bottom of the 10th. The Brewers definitely hold the bullpen edge in this match-up but the Twins concerns here go far beyond their relievers. Minnesota's lineup is impacted here because it is an NL park and that means no DH which in turn means no Nelson Cruz. Additionally, the Twins Josh Donaldson started Thursday's game but now is out with a hamstring injury. As for the pitching match-up here, Jose Berrios gets the start for the Twins. Not only is Berrios coming off a sub-par season - by his standards - in 2020, he also is known for struggling more on the road than at home. He got hit at a .183 clip at home last season but .288 on the road last season. In 2018 Berrios was great at home but went 3-7 with a 4.85 ERA in his 15 road starts. In 2017 he was also fantastic at home but Berrios went 5-7 with a 5.17 ERA away from home. In his last start in Milwaukee, Berrios gave up 3 homers in 5 innings! Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Brewers here and he allowed just 2 hits in 5 innings in his start at Minnesota last season. Now he is on his home mound facing the Twins and Burnes went 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his 5 appearances (3 starts) at American Family Field last season. Overall Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA and a .174 BAA as he returned to the form of his rookie season of 2018 when he went 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a .199 BAA. Burnes was fantastic this spring and we see every reason to believe he'll get the better of this match-up with Berrios as the latter sees his long-term road struggles continue. We’ll grab the home team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet MILWAUKEE. |
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04-03-21 | Flyers +159 v. Islanders | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +160 over New York Islanders at 7 PM ET - We cashed with the Islanders Thursday in their big win over the Capitals. You know New York wanted that game as Washington is the team Islanders coach Barry Trotz formerly led. Prior to the 8-4 win over the Capitals the Islanders had lost back to back games and 4 of 7. The way we see it there is far too much underdog value on the Flyers to ignore here. Philadelphia is off an embarrassing 6-1 loss at Buffalo. Yes, those same Sabres you had been hearing about for their very long losing streak which had reached 18 games before they upset the Flyers Wednesday. Now, having had extra time off to get even more fired up after that defeat, the Flyers should come out flying in this one. This team has been left for dead by many but they enter today's action only 3 points behind the Bruins for a playoff spot in the East Division. Though it will be a challenging stretch, Philadelphia does have back to back games coming up against the Bruins Monday and Tuesday in a home and home set that begins in Boston. The point is that the Flyers are far from dead yet and this game today at the Islanders offers exceptional line value when you consider the situational aspects for each club and the fact that Philadelphia is such a huge dog here. Given all of the above, we have no hesitation in taking a "flyer" on the big dog Flyers in this one as we have seen the Islanders come out flat on more than one occasion this season! Take the FLYERS |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -5 over Houston, Saturday at 5:14 PM ET - Houston has had an easy road to this point and we think it ends on Saturday. The Cougars NCAA tourney opponents have been Cleveland State (170th on Ken Pom), Rutgers (38th), Syracuse (41st), and Oregon State (48th). As you can see they have yet to play anyone ranked inside the top 38 nationally and 2 of those wins were tight beating Rutgers by 3 (Houston trailed by 10 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game) and Oregon State by 6. Baylor, on the other hand, has played 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 in the Dance (Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Villanova) and all of their wins have come by 9 points or more with 3 coming by double digits. Baylor has absolutely earned their way to this point while Houston has had a number of breaks. We’ve mentioned it a few times during the tourney but Baylor was a perfect 17-0 and considered the top team in the country with Gonzaga for much of the season. They went into a 3 week Covid break with no games and almost no practices during the month of February and they came out of that rusty losing 2 of their final 7 games through the Big 12 tourney. Well they are back to their early season form as we mentioned handling 3 very good teams with ease. While Houston has better overall defensive numbers on the season, we rate these 2 defenses about dead even. Baylor played the much tougher offensive schedule and struggled defensively when coming back from Covid which hurt their overall numbers. During the Dance they’ve allowed just 43% from the field and 3 of their 4 opponents have failed to get to 1.00 points per possession. The Cougars have also played very well defensively in the tournament but they have yet to face an offense ranked higher than 23rd in efficiency the Dance. Now they face a Baylor offense that is 3rd nationally in efficiency, 7th in eFG%, and 1st in 3-point percentage hitting a ridiculous 41% of their shots from deep as a team. The Bears have a big edge offensively in this game. Houston is not a very good shooting team ranking below 110th in eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point % nationally. They rely on offensive rebounding to get extra possessions and they are very good at it. The problem here is Baylor is the 7th best offensive rebounding team in the country so while Houston will do damage on the offensive glass, so will the Bears. No advantage there. Since their opening win of the tournament vs Cleveland State, the Cougars are averaging just 64 PPG in their last 3 which they were able to win by shutting down the opposing offense. That won’t happen here. Baylor is averaging 83 PPG on the season and they’ve scored at least 76 points in 3 of their 4 tourney games. We have a hard time believing Houston can keep up offensively in this game. While Houston has had a fairly easy run to the Final 4, they’ve also failed to play a team currently ranked inside the top 20 (Ken Pom) all season long! As we mentioned above, the Bears have played 3 of those teams (ranked inside top 20) in the Big Dance alone. Now the Cougs face #2 Baylor who is back at the top of their game. We’ll lay the points here as Baylor moves on to the National Championship game. |
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04-02-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -4 | Top | 114-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - We love the spot here to play the Pacers and fade the Hornets. Charlotte is coming off a big game last night against the Nets which makes this a second consecutive game in two days. Not only that but its also their 3rd game in four days. Charlotte is just 4-5 SU when playing without rest and 3-5 SU when playing in this situation of 3rd game in four nights. Charlotte is a respectable 11-13 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -2.3PPG but this is a bad spot for them. Indiana is coming off a home loss to Miami on March 31st so they’ve had a full day to stew about it and will be ready to go here. The Pacers suffered through several key injuries early on but are now getting healthy with Caris Levert back in the mix. Levert is averaging 17PPG and gives the Pacers much needed scoring they’ve lacked. Indiana has covered 4 straight at home over the Hornets and we like them to get another cover here. |
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04-02-21 | Rays -105 v. Marlins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#925 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -105 over Miami, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Marlins not only were handed a shutout yesterday they hardly had any base runners. It was a demoralizing season opener for Miami as they only drew one walk and had just 3 hits. Conversely, the Rays got a big lift with the solo bomb from Meadows with two outs in the top of the 8th. Not only that, Tampa Bay at least produced some scoring chances but they left 8 men on base throughout the game. We feel the line move here (Marlins have been attracting attention) has led to some great value on the defending AL Champion Rays. Miami faced all right-handed pitchers yesterday but now face a very tough southpaw in the form of Ryan Yarbrough. The lefty used to be more of an opener but now is a guy who averages 5 and can certainly give a solid 6 innings. He is very tough to hit and looked sharp in the spring. While Pablo Lopez of the Marlins also deserves respect, he gave up 5 earned runs in 4 innings the last time he faced the Rays. Also, one of the key guys out for TB right now is Ji-Man Choi but his replacement, Yoshi Tsutsugo, is 2 for 2 with a homer against Lopez in his career. Also, Joey Wendle did not play for the Rays yesterday but don't be surprised if he is in the lineup today as he is 4 for 8 with a homer in his career against Lopez. There is a good chance that Wendle will be among 5 left-handed bats in the lineup for the Rays tonight and Lopez struggled much more against left-handed bats last season. As for Yarbrough, he faced the Marlins in August and shut them out over 6 and 2 / 3 innings of strong work as he struck out 5 and walked 0 while allowing only 4 hits. This one shapes up well to be another road win as the Rays ride the momentum of yesterday's victory to another win here. We’ll grab the road team at a great price on the money line in this one and bet TAMPA BAY. |
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04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 109-116 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 220 Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat, 8:10 PM ET - Yes, the Warriors have Steph back in the lineup but we still like Under in this one. Sure, the Warriors are one of the fastest paced teams in the league but their offensive efficiency ratings is 22nd at 1.096 points per possession. They still play defense though with the 8th best defensive efficiency rating allowing only 1.105PPP. Miami is always good defensively with the 6th best overall defensive efficiency and in their last five games they are the second slowest paced team in the league at just 94.1 possessions per game. The Heat have really struggled offensively this season with the 24th worst offensive efficiency rating and in their last three games they haven’t topped 105 points. Golden State has been a solid proposition as an Under on the road with a 9-2 record their last 11 away from home. Miami has also stayed Under in 5 of their last seven at home against a team with a sub .500 road record. The call here is Under! |
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04-01-21 | Capitals v. Islanders -113 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON New York Islanders Money Line -115 over Washington Capitals at 7 PM ET - This is always a big match-up for Islanders head coach Trotz as he faces his former team, the Capitals. Certainly Trotz and New York enjoyed eliminating the Caps from the post-season last year. However, Washington has now gotten revenge with a perfect 3-0 mark in the 3 meetings in this regular season. That said, some payback is on order here and we expect home ice to make a big difference. Each of the first 3 meetings this season were in Washington. Now this one is on Long Island and the Islanders are a fantastic 13-1-2 as a host this season. Also, the Islanders are 6-1 this season when they are at home and off a loss. In this case the Islanders enter off back to back losses and they have had only one losing streak of more than 2 games this season and that was way back very early in the season. In other words, a big Islanders response and a resulting home win is quite likely in this one. Take the ISLANDERS |
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03-31-21 | Mavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics +1 over Dallas Mavericks 7:40PM ET The Celtics are off a disappointing home loss to the Pelicans and an uncharacteristic bad shooting night of 43% overall and 33% from beyond the arc. Boston is the 13th best overall shooting team in the league and 8th best 3-point shooting team so expect a return to normal tonight. Boston is 7-2 SU at home off a loss this year and considering the line on this game, all they have to do is essentially win and we get a cover. Dallas is coming off a win over the Thunder, but everyone is beating OKC these days so we’re not overly impressed. The Mavericks have played well on the road this year with a 13-11 SU record but only 6 of those wins have come against a team with a current winning record. Earlier this season the C’s were -2.5-points in Dallas and lost outright so the correction in the line for this game is not what it should be. Take Boston at home in a bounce back situation playing with revenge. |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC +8.5 over Gonzaga, Tuesday at 7:15 PM ET - We feel that besides Baylor, this USC team matches up as well as anyone with Gonzaga. We like the Trojans to give the undefeated Zags a run for their money tonight. We realize Gonzaga has beaten every team they’ve played, with the exception of West Virginia, by double digits. Let’s also keep in mind this USC team will be the best and most talented team the Zags have faced this season. Trojan center Mobley is projected as a top 3 pick in the NBA draft and will give Drew Timme and company all they can handle inside. The Zags score the vast majority of their points inside with 57% coming inside the arc (29th nationally) and just 25% from 3-point land (309th nationally). This USC defense is very good (4th nationally in defensive efficiency) and matches up perfectly ranking #1 in the country at defending inside the arc allowing opponents just 41% shooting. Mobley is a supreme defender and shot blocker and Gonzaga has not seen a team that defends inside like the Trojans. The Bulldogs offense has been great this year but they’ve only seen 2 defenses all SEASON ranked in the top 25 in efficiency (St Mary’s and Kansas). This USC defense is a level up from anything they’ve faced. Gonzaga has topped Oklahoma (7th best team in the Big 12) & Creighton (3rd best team in the Big East) their last 2 games. Impressive but how about USC’s current run? They have topped Drake (2nd best team in the MVC), Kansas, and Oregon all by double digits as well and by an average of 21 PPG! They are a very good offensive team (14th nationally in efficiency) that is peaking right now scoring 85 vs Kansas & 82 vs Oregon in their last 2 games. The Trojans are the 2nd tallest team in the nation giving them the height advantage which is a rarity vs Gonzaga. Not only will they give the Bulldogs a test defensively, USC is a team that can keep up on the scoreboard with their offense humming right now averaging 80 PPG, 52% shooting overall, and 47% from 3 over their last 5 games. The Pac 12 has shown to be a top notch conference with 3 teams landing in the Elite 8 and the Trojans are the best of the bunch in that league. This one goes to the wire and we’ll gladly take the points with USC. |
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03-30-21 | Hornets -3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to play on the Hornets and fade the Wizards. Charlotte is rested and off a loss, while the Wiz are coming off a big emotional win last night against the Indiana Pacers. Westbrook expended a ton of energy with a monster 35-point, 21 assists and 14 rebound night. The Wiz shot ridiculously well at 56% (season average is 46.8% or around league average) and will have a tough time duplicating that here. Charlotte is 3-1 SU their last four games and they even played well in a 4-point overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Hornets are just 2-3 SU their last five road games but the three losses came to the Nuggets, Lakers (w/James) and Clippers. Washington is just 10-14 SU at home with a negative differential of -2.4PPG which is 22nd in the league. The line on this game is an indicator that Beal will not be in the lineup again for the Hornets so the play here is on Charlotte. |
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03-30-21 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Lightning are in a great spot for a blowout home win here. Tampa Bay has been off back to back days so they are well-rested here and have had extra time to build plenty of motivation here. That extra hunger stems from multiple factors here. For one thing, the Bolts are off back to back losses and this is a team that has not lost 3 straight games this entire season. For another thing, the Lightning did lose the most recent game against the Blue Jackets and that was a 5-2 loss at Columbus in late January. A lot has changed since then and that includes the fact that the Jackets have struggled badly. Columbus enters this game having lost 4 straight games and 15 of their last 21 games! Of course that plus the revenge factor as well as Tampa Bay's situation is the reason that TB is a money line favorite in the -250 range here. Where we get the value in playing on the Lightning here is with the puck line. We can comfortably lay the -1.5 goals here and get a price of about -105 and we say comfortably because the Blue Jackets have 11 road losses this season and 8 have come by a multiple goal margin. In fact the average margin of those 8 defeats is 3 goals. The last 4 road losses for Columbus, including back to back defeats at Detroit, have come by a combined score of 15 to 3. Our computer math modeling reflects this one getting very ugly for the road team and we completely agree! Laying the 1.5 goals (at a pick'em price currently in the -105 range) with Tampa Bay is the value play here. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
#653/654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 148.5 Points – Arkansas vs Baylor, Monday at 10 PM ET - Baylor’s defense was outstanding prior to their extended Covid interruption which lasted from February 2nd – February 23rd. Coming back from that, they didn’t play very well on the defensive end of the court. The Bears held only 2 of their next 7 opponents under 70 points. Prior to their Covid break they had held 14 of their 17 opponents to less than 70 points. Head coach Scott Drew mentioned that because they had to play so many games in a short period of time after coming back, they didn’t get to practice much which really affected their defensive efficiency. After the Big 12 tourney, the Bears had a full week to practice and their defense is back to elite form. They have allowed 55, 63, and 51 points in their 3 NCAA tourney games including games vs solid offensive teams Villanova & Wisconsin. None of those 3 opponents topped 0.98 points per possession and those 3 teams combined to shoot just 41%. Arkansas is known as a fast paced, high scoring team, however their defense is far superior to their offense. The Razors defense ranks 9th nationally in efficiency while their offense is 46th. They have allowed 66, 68, and 70 points in their 3 tournament games, all which went UNDER the total by a combined 30 points. Their most recent game vs a very fast paced and poor defensive team (Oral Roberts was the worst defensive team in the entire tourney) the final score was just 72-70. Both offenses have scored well under their season averages in the tourney with Arkansas putting up 75 PPG in 3 games (season average is 82 PPG) and Baylor scoring 72 PPG (season average is 83 PPG). Both offenses will be facing one of the better defenses they’ve seen this season and we expect this one to be played in the low 70’s at best. Take the UNDER. |
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03-29-21 | Wolves v. Nets OVER 239 | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 239 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 PM ET - These are two of the faster paced teams in the NBA which translates to a lot of possessions and more scoring opportunities. Minnesota is 4th in pace, Brooklyn is 13th. The Nets are the #1 offensive efficiency team in the NBA at 1.184-points per possession and they should put up 130 or more here against the Wolves defense that is 27th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.147-PPP. Speaking of defense, or lack of, the Nets aren’t much better than the Wolves in DEFF ranking 25th. The number on this game is an indicator Kyrie Irving will be back in the lineup with Harden which means Brooklyn is going to score at will here. If the Wolves get to 113 here, like we feel they will, this game goes Over. |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston -7.5 over Oregon State, 7:15 PM ET - Oregon State has been a fantastic story this tournament but the Cinderella story is about to end tonight. Clearly the Pac12 has represented extremely well in the post season but the Beavers were the worst of the bunch to get in. Consider this, the Beavers were just plus +6 points against Oklahoma State (ranked 63rd) and +7 versus Loyola Chicago (ranked 10th per KenPom) and now a slightly bigger dog against the 3rd ranked team in Houston. Even though Loyola had some better season statistics, they played a much weaker schedule than say Oklahoma State so let’s look specifically at that game for a comparison with this contest. Oregon State really struggled with Oklahoma State’s pressure defense for a large part of the game but the Cowboys literally couldn’t make a shot, shooting just 28% in the game. That was an aberration considering the Beavers rank 203rd in FG% defense. Houston is 90th in the nation in forcing turnovers, has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in college hoops and is #1 defensively in EFG%. The Oregon State will have a hard time getting going offensively against this defense, especially considering they are 213th in points scored per game, 226th in field goal percentage at just 43.2%. Houston has the 8th best offensive efficiency numbers in the nation in large part to their offensive rebounding which is 2nd in the country. Houston just beat a red hot Syracuse team handily and will get a double-digit win in this one. |
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03-29-21 | Flyers -1.5 v. Sabres | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - 17 straight losses for the Sabres. Of course that, plus the Flyers domination of Buffalo this season, is why Philadelphia is a -200 favorite on the money line in this game. While we will not lay that kind of price here we are going to get involved in this one by utilizing the value of the puck line. By laying the 1.5 goals with Philly here we actually lay no juice and get a +125 return on our investment. Of course the key here is that the Flyers must win this game by 2 or more goals. That being said, Buffalo is off a 1-goal loss but this was preceded by 12 of 15 (80%) defeats coming by 2 or more goals. The Flyers most recent win over the Sabres was by a 1-goal margin but this followed 6 straight meetings between these clubs that each were games decided by 2 or more goals. Brian Elliott will be in goal for the Flyers tonight and the veteran is 3-0 with a 0.92 GAA and a .967 save percentage in 4 games (3 starts) versus the Sabres this season. Philadelphia had stumbled lately but are off a key win over the Rangers and they know that if they are going to continue to stay alive in the playoff race, they must get wins against teams like Buffalo. Look for the Sabres losing streak to reach 18 games as a result. Laying the 1.5 goals (for a solid plus money return, currently in the +125 range) with Philadelphia is the value play here. |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* USC -2 over Oregon, 9:45 PM ET - When these two teams last met USC beat Oregon 72-58. That was Oregon’s last regular season loss in their last eleven regular season games (they did lose to Oregon State in the conference tourney). The Trojans have a big edge in this game on the interior with the Mobley brothers who stand 6’10 and 7-feet tall. USC is 24th in rebounding compared to a Ducks team that ranks 253rd. USC is great defensively with the #1 ranked 2-point percentage defense in the country allowing just 41.4%. The Trojans have the 5th best defensive efficiency in the nation allowing just .88-points per possession. In comparison the Ducks rank 52nd in DEFF. Offensively these two teams are relatively even when if comes to efficiency ratings as the Ducks check in 10th, but USC is 15th. So, while the offenses are similar, the defenses are not with USC holding a sizable advantage. USC has covered 5 of the last six meetings and the favorite has covered 9 of the last eleven. We like USC and the short number here. |
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03-28-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The trade deadline came and went and both teams were involved in some deals as the Hawks were rumored to be set to trade John Collins but instead made a minor move with Rondo. Denver made a big splash by landing McGee from Cleveland and Aaron Gordon from Orlando. We actually feel the Nuggets might have just made the moves needed to win the West. The Nuggets will go through a minor adjustment period injecting Aaron Gordon into the lineup and playing him starter minutes. Atlanta has quietly played well by winning 9 of the last eleven games and the two losses were close at the Clippers and at the Kings (who are playing well right now). Denver has also played well of late but are coming off a three-game road trip and have a much bigger game on deck with Philadelphia. The Nuggets are just 1-5 SU coming off a win and the Hawks have covered 9 of the last eleven meetings with Denver. Denver also just 2-6 ATS their last eight home games as a favorite. |
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03-28-21 | Devils +165 v. Bruins | Top | 1-0 | Win | 165 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON New Jersey Devils Money Line +165 over Boston Bruins at 5:30 PM ET - The Devils have had the Bruins number this season with 3 straight wins in their most recent meetings. Of course, Boston would love to do something about that but this situation strongly favors New Jersey. The Bruins are in the 2nd game of a back to back and they barely got by a bad Sabres team yesterday that has now lost 17 straight games. Why did Boston barely win? They are very short-handed right now between injuries and covid protocol. The Bruins are without #1 goalie Rask and also check out the other names on their current report: Marchand, Kuraly, Debrusk, Carlo...just to name a few. The Bruins now host a Devils team hungry to bounce back off a 4-0 shutout loss at Washington Friday. While New Jersey is rested and ready, Boston is worn out and limping into this game. Tremendous underdog line value in this one as a result and we will not hesitate to get involved. Take the DEVILS |
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03-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 228.5 | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround game as these teams just played last night and totaled 231 Total points. The Jazz built a big lead, but the Grizzlies hung in there and almost pulled off the road win. The two teams combined for 195 total field goal attempts which is 15 more combined attempts than these two averages for the season. One anomaly from last night’s game is the Grizzlies 3-point shooting of 40% which is higher than normal considering they are the 23rd worst team in the NBA in 3PT%. Both teams have been lights out defensively of late with the 8th and 9th best defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games. When these teams have played without rest this season the Grizzlies have averaged 226.9PPG, Utah has averaged 223.3PPG. The Jazz are 5-2 to the Under this season when playing without rest, Memphis has stayed Under in 3 straight in this scheduling situation. The Bet here is UNDER |
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03-27-21 | Panthers +100 v. Stars | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida Panthers Money Line +100 over Dallas Stars at 8 PM ET - We will come right back with the Panthers here. We lost with them on Thursday at Chicago but they thoroughly dominated the game. Florida outshot the Blackhawks in every single period by convincing fashion and the final tally was 41 to 21 for the game. Now the Panthers might even get Aleksander Barkov back for this game but, either way, you can already see that Florida was able to generate plenty of shots on goal without him. The Panthers should bounce back here off that tough shootout loss as they are a solid 10-5-1 in road games this season. They are visiting Dallas where the Stars have, rather surprisingly, lost 11 of 18 games this season. That being said, there is excellent line value here with Florida available at no juice and on a rare losing streak and catching Dallas off a 4-3 win over Tampa Bay. Remember the Lightning won the Stanley Cup Finals over the Stars last year so that victory carries even more meaning for this Stars team. That makes this situation an ideal one for the road team. Take the PANTHERS |
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03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 136.5 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 136.5 LA Tech vs Mississippi State, 3 PM ET - This is an interesting situation as LA Tech played another SEC opponent in the opening round of this Tournament against Mississippi. We can make a great comparison from that game as Ole’Miss and Mississippi State have some very similar characteristics in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency along with pace of play. La Tech and Mississippi combined for 131 total points. The (MSU) Bulldogs are 301st in pace or tempo and want nothing to do with a faster paced game. Miss State is coming off a game against Richmond who is like LA Tech and those two combined for 135 total points. These two teams are both top 53 in terms of defensive efficiency ratings allowing less than .950-points per possession. Mississippi State has the 11th best EFG% defense in college basketball while Louisiana Tech ranks 43rd in that same category. It’s getting later in the tournament and pressure is starting to mount. We’ll bet UNDER here. |
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03-26-21 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -1.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET These two teams met a few games ago with the Pelicans winning 113-108 in Denver and payback is on hand tonight. As of this posting we don’t know if the Nuggets will have their new additions of Aaron Gordon or Javale McGee, but we are factoring in they don’t play, if they do, that’s a bonus. Denver is coming off a horrible loss to Toronto, giving up 135 points to the Raptors in a blowout. The Nuggets are 7-3 SU their last ten games overall, 6-1 SU their last seven on the road with an impressive win over the Bucks. Denver is 12-5 SU off a loss this season and the number is obviously low enough here to get a road win and cover. New Orleans has won two straight and are coming off a big win over the Lakers, but they are just 5-5 SU their last ten. The Pelicans are the 28th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA and will have a hard time containing the Nuggets 4th ranked offensive efficiency team here. Denver has the 6th best road differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG which is good enough for a cover here. Bet the visitor. |
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03-25-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 136.5 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 136.5 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky, 10 PM ET - This will be the third meeting of the season for these two Conference USA rivals with the two teams splitting the regular season clashes. We are not concerned with who will win this showdown but will invest in how many points they score. In the first two games at Western Kentucky these two combined for 130 and 121 Total points. Now we get a game on a neutral floor where neither team has any shooting advantages. When it comes to tempo the Hilltoppers are 210th in the nation in pace of play while LA Tech ranks 129th. Both teams are OK when it comes to offensive efficiency but what both do well is play defense. LA Tech was 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency allowing just .922 points per possession while WKU was 89th at .973PPP. Tech had the best effective field goal percentage D in the conference, Western was 3rd. The entire conference was 25th nationally (out of 32) conferences in efficiency ratings and 14th in pace. If we eliminate one OT game in this rivalry, we see they’ve combined to score 137 or less points in 5 of the last six meetings. Bet UNDER! |
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03-25-21 | Panthers -118 v. Blackhawks | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida Panthers Money Line -120 over Chicago Blackhawks at 8 PM ET - Very strong line value here. The Panthers are without Aleksander Barkov here and they are on the road. However, the situation was exactly the same on Tuesday and yet Florida went off the board as a -160 favorite. Now the Panthers are priced in the -120 range in the rematch because the markets have over-reacted to Barkov's absence. Even without Barkov on Tuesday Florida still outshot Chicago. The Blackhawks hung on for the 3-2 win but now the Panthers will get their revenge. Prior to that loss, Florida had won all 4 meetings with Chicago this season and the combined score of those games was 20 to 11. That said, the Panthers have dominated for long stretches in these match-ups this season. Now Florida enters this game off back to back losses and they have not lost 3 straight games this entire season. In fact, the Panthers are 9-2 this season when they enter a game off a loss. The Blackhawks, prior to the 3-2 win Tuesday, had lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7. Given the situation, if this game was at Florida and Barkov was healthy, this line would be about a -200 on the Panthers. That shows you what kind of value we're getting here. Given that fact as well as the revenge factor and coach Joel Quenneville again facing his former team but this time off a loss, you know what kind of effort Florida is going to bring here and others will step up with Barkov set to miss this game. The better team laying a very small price here and they send the Blackhawks to their 7th loss in the last 9 games! In the process Florida improves to 10-2 this season when off a loss! VALUE! Take the PANTHERS |
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03-25-21 | Wizards v. Knicks OVER 225.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Washington Wizards vs NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams just met the other night and they combined for 244 total points in the Knicks 131-113 win. New York shot exceptionally well in that game hitting over 50% from the field and beyond the arc but is that a huge surprise given the Wizards defense? Washington is 30th in points allowed per game, 25th in field goal percentage defense and 27th in defending the 3-point line. The Knicks have struggled at times this season offensively, but they are the 10th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.7%. We know New York plays slow and don’t have great offensive numbers but the Wizards are the fastest paced team in the league at 104.2 possessions per game and rank 7th in scoring at 114.9PPG. The Knicks are on a 4-1 Over streak as a favorite, 7-1 Over their last eight following a win of 10+ points. The Wiz are on a 4-1 Over run as an Underdog and 4-1 Over off a loss. This total is only a few points higher than league average so its not like we are asking them to score a ridiculous number of points. Just be slightly better than average and we get a win. |
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03-24-21 | Jets v. Canucks UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 6 Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks, 10:30 PM ET - These teams just met Monday and the 4-0 shutout win for the Jets was the 8th under in the last 11 meetings between these two teams. The Canucks are continuing to deal with a lot of injuries impacting them at both the winger and center positions. Vancouver has been held to 2 or less goals in regulation time of 7 of their last 8 games. Our computer math model indicates strong probabilities for this game totaling 5 or less goals as many models call for a 3-2 final. Working with a total of 6 goals on this one we have excellent value for the under. 9 of the Canucks last 13 games have totaled 5 or less goals. Winnipeg had averaged only 2 goals per game in regulation time of their last 4 games before coming up with a 4-0 win here in Vancouver Monday. That being said, you can see why a 2-2 type game here that ends up a 3-2 final is quite likely. Should be a tight battle as the Canucks, still hurting up front, focus on strong play in their own zone and try to battle to a tight low-scoring home win here. Whether or not they get the upset win, this one is likely to see very few goals as Vancouver dictates the style of play on their home ice. for this one. We like UNDER here. |
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03-24-21 | Hawks -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The “tell” on this game is the number as Vegas is trying to bait you into betting the Kings as a home dog. We won’t fall into that trap and will take the red hot Hawks here. Atlanta is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers where they led by 22-points in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing by 9-points. Prior to that game the Hawks had won 8 straight games, four of which were on the road. Sacramento is playing better of late with wins in 3 of their last four games but they haven’t been consistent, especially at home where they are 9-12 SU with the 27th worst average loss margin in the NBA of minus -4.9PPG. Sacramento has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall and at home where they allow 121PPG. Atlanta is 11-12 SU on the road this season but do have a positive road differential which ranks 13th best in the league. Yes, this is a quick turnaround game and the Hawks just beat the Kings but Atlanta has been in California for a few days and the Kings are coming off a 6-game East coast road trip. Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored on the road this year. Lay it. |
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03-24-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Pepperdine OVER 151.5 | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 151.5 Coastal Carolina vs Pepperdine, 8 PM ET - We feel Vegas had the right number when they opened this and will take the added value with the Over here. Consider this, Pepperdine and Bellarmine just played and combined for 153 total points and Bellarmine is the 315th slowest paced team in the nation. Coastal is coming off an OT game against Stetson who ‘average’ in pace of play at 194th and those two schools scored 149 total points. What we have tonight are two teams that want to play fast. Coastal is 49th in pace of play while Pepperdine is 46th. Pepperdine has scored 80+ points in 6 of their last eight games including both games on this tournament. Coastal just played Bryant two games ago and those two teams combined for 175 total points and Bryant was a faster paced team much like Pepperdine. With both teams playing their 3rd game in 3 days we don’t see much defense being played here. |
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03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 5.5 Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars, 8:30 PM ET - These teams just met a week ago and the game went over the total but that was preceded by 3 straight unders in this series and 6 of the last 8 meetings staying under the total. McElhinney started the most recent game for TB so #1 goalie Vasilevskiy expected to start here. This is a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup Finals match-up and should be a tight low-scoring battle. The Stars are off a high-scoring shootout loss to Nashville but 3 of 4 preceding games totaled 5 or less goals. Per our computer math modeling, this one will total 5 or less as well. Oettinger expected to get the start in the crease for Dallas and he has a 2.23 GAA this season! The young netminder has played well thus far this season and that includes looking sharp in a pair of appearances versus the Lightning. More of the same expected here. We like UNDER here. |
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03-23-21 | Pepperdine -6 v. Bellarmine | Top | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Pepperdine -6 over Bellarmine, Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - Strength of schedule and the level of competition clearly favors the Waves of Pepperdine here as they’ve played the 83rd toughest schedule this season compared to Bellarmines’ 285th. Not only have the Knight’s played a weak schedule but against that weaker competition they still rank 295th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.081-points per possession. Bellarmine has the 333rd ranked defensive EFG% against at 55.1%. They are also the 336th worst team in the nation in defending 3-pt shooting. That doesn’t bode well against a Pepperdine team was 89th in offensive efficiency this season and 135th in EFG% offensive at 50.6%. The Wave can also defend with the 132nd rated defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.003PPP. That’s even more impressive considering the Wave play in the West Coast Conference which ranks 7th in EFG% offense and features 5 teams that rank in the top 101 in offensive efficiency. Pepperdine has some quality wins and close losses on their resume and are the superior team. Bellarmine has one win over a team ranked higher than 200th and that was Army (196th) last time out. Lay the points with Pepperdine. |
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03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic UNDER 217 | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 217 Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The Nuggets are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA while the Magic are the 19th slowest. That means this is going to be a slower tempo game with less possessions than an average NBA contest. The Nuggets are one of the higher scoring teams in the NBA because of fantastic offensive efficiency numbers, but Orlando is not with the 27th worst OEFF ratings in the league. The Magic are 29th in scoring, 30th in field goal percentage shooting and 20th in 3-point shooting. Orlando has scored less than 98 points in 4 of their last five games but have also allowed less than 113 in six straight. The betting indicators also support our Under wager here. Bet UNDER |
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03-22-21 | Hawks v. Clippers -6 | Top | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, Monday 10 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks are rolling right now and are coming off a HUGE win over the Lakers. Because of their current 8-game winning streak this line is a few points lower than it should be. But lets also consider who the Hawks have beaten in this streak. They beat the Lakers after LeBron was injured just 10-minutes in. They have wins over OKC, Houston, Cleveland, Sacramento, Toronto, Orlando and Miami. Other than Miami, none of those teams have a winning record and four of those teams are in the bottom 6 of the entire NBA. The Clippers are 14-6 SU at home with the 5th best point differential of +7.3PPG which gets a cover here. L.A. has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers at home and average 117PPG on their home court. Atlanta is 19th in road defensive efficiency rankings and will have a hard time stopping the Clippers in this one. LA is rested and ready…LAY IT! |
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03-22-21 | Flames v. Senators OVER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 6 Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators, 7:00 PM ET - The Senators have a mess at the goalie position right now. Matt Murray is dealing with an upper body injury. Joey Daccord just suffered a lower body injury and is likely out for the season. Marcus Hogberg has been on the injured reserve with a lower body injury as well. It is likely that 22 year old Filip Gustavsson will get the start for Ottawa here. The Senators are allowing 4 goals per game this season and now likely will have a rookie netminder in the crease tonight making his first ever NHL start. Calgary is expected to start Jacob Markstrom here and he has struggled badly in his last 3 starts. Markstrom has allowed 13 goals in his last 3 appearances and, as bad as Ottawa has been this season, they have been quite competitive on home ice. The Senators have gone 5-1-2 in their last 8 home games and have scored an average of 3.7 goals per game (not including OT or SO) in their 7 most recent home games. Our computer math model reflects strong odds on at least 7 goals in this one. We like OVER here. |
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03-22-21 | Abilene Christian v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 47-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -4.5 over Abilene Christian, Monday 5:15 PM ET - This line is slightly higher than we anticipated but it’s warranted based on how well the Bruins are currently playing. UCLA is one of those uber talented team that didn’t play up to their potential at times this season with nine losses. But when the Bruins have been right, they’ve been very good and the first two games in the tourney showed just how well this team can play. UCLA is 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.155-points per possession and 82nd in defensive efficiency allowing just .972PPP. What makes those numbers even more impressive is that it comes against the 34th toughest schedule in the nation. AS we’ve seen in the first two games of the Tourney the Bruins can go inside, make shots on the perimeter and are physical on the defensive end of the floor. Abilene Christian has some impressive statistics overall and play high pressure defense and lead the nation in forced turnovers. The Wildcats were 24th in DEFF allowing .913PPP but were 165th in OEFF. The problem with their overall numbers though is they’ve played the 315th WORST schedule in college basketball. In fact, the Wildcats DEFF numbers are VERY misleading as they’ve faced 12 teams that rank 270th or worse in offensive efficiency. Again, the Bruins rank 12th in that category. Abilene Christian is coming off maybe their biggest win in school history over Big Brother Texas and will let down here against a Bruins team capable of beating most teams in the tourney the way they are playing right now. |
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03-21-21 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Lakers, 10:15 PM ET - Several Sports Books have come out with a line on this game of Phoenix minus 4-points but we don’t expect that to be the number at tipoff. The Lakers are without LeBron James and Anthony Davis which makes them a below average team in the West. The Suns on the other hand are one of the best in the West and would have been favored by 4-points here had LeBron been playing. With that said we will lay up to 9-points with the Suns if this line moves. Phoenix is 14-8 SU at home with the 3rd best average point differential of plus +7.5PPG on the season. The Lakers are just 4-5 SU their last nine road games and only two of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record. The Lakers are just 3-3 SU when playing without rest this season and this factor becomes magnified now without LeBron in the lineup. The Suns take care of business against the leagues best teams as they hold a 11-1 ATS record their last twelve games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oregon State +6.5 over Oklahoma State, 9:40 PM ET - We’ve been high on the Big 12 Conference all season long, but the Pac 12 Conference has played well in the Tourney with UCLA beatings Michigan State in the play in game, Oregon State, Colorado, USC, Colorado and Oregon all advancing. Oregon State was a surprise upset of Tennessee in the opening round, but they made us a believer and we also feel the Cowboys are a bit over-rated. Oregon State has won 4 straight against solid competition with wins over UCLA, Oregon, Colorado and Tennessee. The Beavers are 7-1 SU their last eight games. We have contrasting styles of play here as the Beavers (314th in pace) want to play slow while the Cowboys (33rd) want to play fast. Oklahoma State wasn’t as impressive in their opening round 69-60 win over Liberty and Cade Cunningham struggled shooting by going 3 of 14 from the field. Oklahoma State holds an advantage in defensive efficiency rating at 17th compared to Oregon State at 93rd but the Beavers have a slight advantage in offensive efficiency. It is going to be extremely hard for Oklahoma State to cover this number when they rank 325th in turnovers per game compared to Oregon State who ranks 54th. The Beavers are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog on a neutral court while Oklahoma State is just 1-5 ATS their last six tourney games as a chalk. Grab the points in what should be a close game. |
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03-21-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 5.5 Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings, 6:00 PM ET - The value of having a 5.5 here is a big one. Vegas won Friday's game 4-2 and that was the 5th time in the last 6 meetings between these teams that has resulted in an over. Also, 5 of the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles have also resulted in an over. The Kings struggle to stop the Knights and have allowed at least 4 goals in each of the 3 meetings this season. The Kings should enjoy their fair share of success in the offensive zone in this one as well. Though Marc-Andre Fleury will be between the pipes for Vegas in this one, he has allowed 4 goals in 3 of his last 5 appearances including 2 of his last 3 on the road. Also, in starts against LA, Fleury has given up 6 goals on 46 shots for an ugly .869 save percentage. Los Angeles has converted on 5 of its last 12 power play opportunities against Vegas. The Golden Knights are a solid 3 of 12 on the power play against the Kings in recent meetings. Overall Vegas has scored 4 or more goals in 4 of its last 5 games and the Golden Knights are on a 5-1 O/U run. Our computer math model reflects strong odds on at least a 4-2 game in this one. We like OVER here. |
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03-20-21 | Kings v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 105-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - We rarely pass up an opportunity to play on an elite NBA team off an embarrassing loss which is the case for the 76ers in this situation. Philly was just beaten by the Bucks at home and will be eager to atone here. The Sixers are 18-4 SU at home with the 4th best margin of victory of +7.2PPG. They hold the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 12th best offensive efficiency. While the 76ers are in a great situation (at home, rested and off a home loss) the Kings are in a bad situation. Sacramento is off a HUGE upset win over the Celtics as a 7-point dog, playing the second night of a back-to-back, playing their 3rd in four nights and 5th game in eight days. The Kings have the 24th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG, rank 27th in road defensive efficiency and 16th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -8.2PPG. Philly 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Easy call for a BIG win by Philadelphia. |
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03-20-21 | Maryland v. Connecticut UNDER 130 | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
#791/792 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130 Points – Connecticut vs Maryland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - For those of you that followed us closely this year, you’ll know we’ve been on a numbers of UNDERS with this Maryland team and done very well with those. The Terps are a slow paced, defensive minded team and there is no questioning that. Head coach Mark Turgeon has stressed to this team they will win with defense and they have responded. They rank 27th nationally in defensive efficiency and they are 317th in tempo. They have held 13 of their last 17 opponents below 70 points. Offensively the Terps only average 53 field goal attempts per game which is 329th in the country. UConn’s strength is also their defense. They rank 25th nationally in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed. They held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 68 points or less. UConn is also a very slow paced team ranking 301st. The Huskies defense the 3-point line very well which should negate the strength of Maryland’s offense which is shooting from deep. On the other side, UConn shoots very few 3’s and gets most of their points from inside the arc but that is Maryland’s defensive strength allowing just 46% shooting from 2-point range. This game should be a low possession, defensive battle. We look for this game to be played in the high 50’s / low 60’s which equals an UNDER. |
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03-20-21 | Rangers +125 v. Capitals | Top | 3-1 | Win | 125 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON New York Rangers Money Line +125 over Washington Capitals at 7:00 PM ET - Yesterday's game slipped away from the Rangers despite a 33-18 edge in shots on goal. The Capitals rallied for 2 late goals to get the 2-1 win and that means it is payback time for New York on Saturday. The Rangers had won each of the first two meetings this season and Washington was hungry for revenge yesterday but now it is New York seeking revenge in this one. The Rangers looked like the better team for much of yesterday's game and certainly are more dangerous since the return of Panarin to the ice. He scored their lone goal yesterday but, again, the Rangers could have had more. They will make up for that here and there is a reason this line has moved toward New York even though the Capitals have won 7 straight and 14 of 17. Why does a line move against a team like that in this situation? Sharp money! Grab the dog here. Take the RANGERS |
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03-19-21 | Pacers +4 v. Heat | Top | 137-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4 over Miami Heat, 8 PM ET - This line opened higher than it currently sits, then received a volume of money on the Heat and yet the line moved down. That’s a great first indicator the Pacers are the play here. Looking at each teams last ten games we find completely opposite results. Miami is 8-2 SU their last ten games while the Pacers are 2-8 SU. But on closer inspection we see the Heat have just two wins in that stretch over teams with winning records and one of them came against 21-20 Atlanta. Indiana has played a brutally tough schedule recently with games against the Nets, Nuggets twice, Suns, Lakers, 76ers, Knicks and Celtics. In comparison the Pacers were getting similar points at Denver, at the Lakers and at Philly. Despite a 12-8 SU home record the Heat have an average margin of victory of just 0.6PPG which is 16th worst in the NBA. Pacers have a negative road differential of -0.2PPG which is well within this point spread. Grab the points. |
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03-19-21 | Flames +143 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 143 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Calgary Flames Money Line +145 over Toronto Maple Leafs at 7:00 PM ET - Calgary is off an ugly 7-3 loss and will respond here. The Flames are 7-2 this season when off a loss in which they allowed 4 or more goals. Calgary also has revenge here as they have lost 3 of 4 games against Toronto this season including the most recent defeat coming in overtime. The Flames are catching the Maple Leafs at the right time as Toronto has lost 5 of its last 6 games and allowed an average of 4 goals per game during this rough stretch. The Flames had won 3 straight by a combined score of 9-5 before their 7-3 loss Wednesday. Calgary will be the better team from an execution standpoint here as they have already played twice this week while this is the Leafs first game since Sunday! Take the FLAMES |
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
#739 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +16.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - We love to look long and hard at big underdogs that can score points. That’s what we have here. ORU averages 82 PPG and ranks 13th nationally in scoring. They shoot it very well especially from deep where the average nearly 40% from beyond the arc (11th nationally). They can also steal some points on the FT line when they do get there as they hit nearly 83% from the stripe as a team (1st nationally). We think OSU will have a tough time pulling away in this game. The Buckeyes are coming off a rough and emotional Big Ten tourney run playing 4 games in 4 days and losing to Illinois in OT in the finals. Now they get an early game on Friday while Oral Roberts has had 10 days off to rest, practice, and get ready for their opener. The Golden Eagles have lost by more than this spread just once all season long and that was in the season opener @ Missouri way back in November. They were competitive in their games vs high D1 teams this year losing by 5 @ Oklahoma State, by 5 @ Wichita State, by 11 @ Arkansas, and by 14 @ Oklahoma, all NCAA tourney teams. If OSU has a weakness, it’s definitely their defense as they ranked dead last this year in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency (all games). They are also average at best at defending the arc so we don’t see them slowing down Oral Roberts in this game. The Buckeyes will put up points for sure, but the Eagles, even if they get down by more than the spread, will have the ability to score late if needed to get back in the game. The Buckeyes simply want to win and advance and get some rest for their starters if they are up double digits late in the game. Oral Roberts scores 70+ in this one and covers the big number. |
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts v. Ohio State OVER 156 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
#739/740 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 156 Points – Oral Roberts vs Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - This one should definitely be a high scoring game. Oral Roberts ranks 13th nationally in scoring averaging 82 PPG on the season. They love to play fast ranking 47th nationally in tempo. The Golden Eagles are a great 3-point shooting team (11th nationally) hitting almost 40% and the are the best FT shooting team in the country at 83%. Ohio State ranks 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and will be by far the best offense ORU has seen this season. There are some very solid offensive teams in the Summit League, but none ranked inside the top 40 in the country. Even with that, the Eagles allowed 75 PPG in conference play. The 3 top offensive teams in the Summit are South Dakota State, South Dakota, and this ORU team. In their 4 games vs SDSU & South Dakota the totaled 189, 178, 175, and 170 points. ORU’s defense ranks 285th nationally in defensive efficiency and the Buckeyes have not seen a defense this leaky in a LONG time. For comparison’s sake, the worst defensive teams in the Big 10 this season were the Buckeyes (79th nationally), followed by Minnesota (51st), Iowa (50th), and Penn State (49th). OSU averaged 77 PPG in their games vs those 3 opponents and they are all FAR superior defensively to this Oral Roberts team. The Eagles played 5 games this season vs tournament teams (Missouri, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Wichita St) and allowed an average of 85 PPG in those games and all 5 opponents were ranked outside the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency (OSU is 4th as we mentioned above). The Buckeyes weakness is definitely their defense which was last in the conference this year in efficiency. They also are not great at defending the arc (191st nationally) which will be a problem here vs a great 3 point shooting team. OSU’s tempo numbers aren’t overly fast, however, they have no problem playing fast and did so when facing the up tempo teams in the Big 10. Versus the 4 Big 10 teams ranked inside the top 100 in tempo, OSU averaged 152 PPG in those contests and remember all of those teams have much better defenses than Oral Roberts. OSU get’s to at LEAST the mid 80’s here and we have no doubt Oral Roberts will top 70. Take the OVER. |
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03-18-21 | Hornets +8 v. Lakers | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 over LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Typically, a solid situation is betting against teams off games in the higher altitude of Denver if they are playing without rest such as the Hornets tonight. But we are going contrarian for a couple key reasons. First off, the Hornets were down big early and barely played the starters in the second half so fatigue won’t be an issue. Secondly, the line value is obvious as the Hornets were just plus +6.5-points at Denver who is rated higher than the Lakers, who are laying 8-points here. The Lakers are average or below in most offensive categories including efficiency which they rank 15th in. Los Angeles is 18th in scoring and 22nd in 3-point percentage shooting. L.A. has the 4th most wins in the NBA (easy first half schedule) but their average point differential is just +6PPG. Charlotte is above .500 this season and getting great play from their young talent including LaMelo Ball. The Hornets have won 4 of their last five games and 6 of their last nine. Charlotte is 8-11 SU on the road with an average point differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Hornets have been great off a loss recently with a 6-0 ATS run. Any time you play the Lakers it’s a big game so expect Charlotte to be dialed in tonight. Lakers 1-4 ATS their last five off a win of 10+ points. |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State UNDER 135 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
#717/718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135 Points – UCLA vs Michigan State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Bruins step into this game as one of the slowest teams in the country ranking 332nd in tempo. MSU was one of the slower paced teams in the Big 10 (9th) and they sit in the middle of the pack nationally. However, they have no problem playing a slow down game and that’s what we expect tonight as UCLA gets the tempo they prefer. Neither team takes or makes many 3-pointers with both ranking outside the top 250 in percentage of points from beyond the arc. That’s always something we look at when taking an UNDER. Limit points from beyond the arc = lower scoring game. MSU is not a good shooting team period. They ranked 13th in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency, 3-point percentage, and eFG percentage. Down the stretch Sparty was held under 60 points in 3 of their final 5 games and only reached 1.00 points per possession once in their final 5. They averaged just 64 PPG in Big 10 play and only topped 70 points 6 times in 21 conference games including the tournament. The Bruins had better offensive numbers averaging 71 PPG in Pac 12 play but keep in mind that conference has nowhere near the defensive prowess the Big 10 has. In fact, MSU ranked 8th overall in Big 10 defensive efficiency (all games) but 32nd nationally. The Spartans defensive numbers were good enough to rank 3rd in the Pac 12 right on par with Colorado (29th nationally) and USC (19th nationally), the top 2 defensive teams in that league. In UCLA’s 4 games vs those 2 opponents, the combined scores were 114, 127, 127, and 131 points. This one will be played in the 60’s and we like the UNDER. |
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03-18-21 | Norfolk State +3 v. Appalachian State | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 39 h 47 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Norfolk State +3 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 8:40 PM ET - App State made a great run through their conference tourney catching lightning in a bottle as some teams do this time of year. They played 4 games in 4 days in the Sun Belt tourney to win the title but let’s not forget this team was ranked as the 5th best team in the Sun Belt entering that tournament and actually had a losing record during the regular season. They also lost 3 times this season to Troy who is ranked 305th nationally and is the worst team in the Sun Belt so App State has been far from reliable. They’ve had some rest now but this is a very thin team which can cause problems in a tournament setting. Their starters played 733 out of the 850 possible minutes in those 4 tourney games that were all very tight. Norfolk steps in from the MEAC, which isn’t a strong league, but they were the best team in their conference all season. The Spartans have had off since Saturday so they’ll be rested as well. They are also deep (15th nationally in bench minutes) and experienced with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up and multiple upperclassmen coming off the bench. Their head coach Jones has been at Norfolk for 8 years and had only one losing season (solid program). No post-season last year for anyone but in 2019 the Spartans made the NIT and beat Alabama before losing to Colorado. They are a good sized team, solid rebounding, one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation (39th) and they don’t turn the ball over very much. This one has upset written all over, although we wouldn’t call it that as we have this game rated as dead-even. We’ll take the points with Norfolk State. |
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03-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. St. Mary's UNDER 125 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 37 m | Show |
#707/708 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 125 Points – St Marys vs Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET - NOTE – All NIT games are being played in Frisco, TX so no home court advantage. The strength of both of these teams are their defenses. St Marys ranks 9th nationally in defensive efficiency and WKU ranks 81st. Both offenses rank outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with Ste Marys sitting down near 200th in that category. Neither team likes to play at a fast pace, especially the Gaels who rank 347th in tempo. If you take out their 3 games vs Gonzaga (#1 in the country in offensive efficiency) the St Marys defense allowed just 59 PPG in conference play. Offensively they only averaged 59 PPG in WCC play shooting just 39% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc. They rank 328th nationally in 3-point shooting at under 30% for the season. Needless to say this offense isn’t any where close to the sharp shooting teams St Marys has had in the past. The only 2 defenses in the WCC that rank in the top 100 are BYU & Gonzaga. In those games St Marys averaged just 56 PPG in their 5 meetings with those 2 teams. The Hilltopper defense also ranks in the top 100 and was outstanding all year allowing 70 points or more just 4 times in 17 Conference USA games. St Marys offense efficiency (198th) would rank 10th in CUSA this season so we don’t look for much from them on offense. CUSA doesn’t have a single defense ranked in the top 30 in efficiency so this will be a better defense by a wide margin than anyone WKY has faced in conference play (St Marys is 9th nationally as mentioned above). Neither team relies heavily on shooting 3’s (both accumulate less than 29% of their points from beyond the arc) and neither team fouls very often. So it looks like the majority of points will be scored from inside the arc which favors the Under. This sets up to be a low possession game with defenses running the show. We think there is a very solid chance that neither team reaches 60 points here so while it’s set very low at 125, there is a reason for that and we like the UNDER. |
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03-17-21 | Spurs v. Bulls OVER 222.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 222.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We are betting value here and will side with Vegas on this Over. This line opened 227.5 which is a ton of value compared to the current number. We are betting the oddsmakers had the correct number to begin with. The correction in the number is based on the Spurs current stretch of games that has resulted in 4 of five Unders but let’s consider who they’ve played in that stretch. The Spurs recently played Detroit, Orlando and OKC who are bottom seven of the NBA in scoring and offensive efficiency. They had a game against Dallas who is middle of the pack in scoring and Philadelphia who is 7th in points allowed per game defensively. Now the Spurs face a Bulls team that is the 6th fastest paced team in the NBA and 11th in scoring at 114.4PPG. Chicago is coming off a game last night and they have averaged 225.5PPG this year when playing without rest. The Bulls just scored 118 and 123 in their last two games after a pair of lower scoring games so the offense is back on track. San Antonio is average or slightly below in most offensive categories, but the Bulls defense isn’t great, allowing 114.3PPG (24th) and 47.4% shooting (23rd). Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finishes with 224-points and this number is below that. Bet OVER |
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03-17-21 | Canucks v. Senators +132 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Ottawa Senators Money Line +130 over Vancouver Canucks at 7:00 PM ET - The Canucks beat the Senators again on Monday. That was the 4th straight win for Vancouver over Ottawa this season. However, the Senators rallied from a 3-0 deficit and fell just short in the 3-2 loss. The Sens outshot the Canucks by a 46-28 margin and Ottawa has outshot Vancouver in all 4 meetings this season with an edge of 30 shots just in the last two games alone. That said, this is the perfect spot for the Senators to finally get past the Canucks as Vancouver has a big revenge game at Montreal on deck for Friday. The Canucks have won 5 of 6 games but the lone loss was a 5-1 defeat to the Canadiens. Vancouver gets caught looking ahead to that game and home dog Ottawa will prove to be the hotter team here. Take the SENATORS |
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03-16-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers -121 | Top | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -120 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - The Blazers get some much-needed help back in their lineup with the return of CJ McCollum. McCollum was having a career year before his injury averaging 26.7PPG on 44.1% shooting from beyond the arc and over 47% from the field. He provides an additional scoring option the Blazers so desperately need to go along with Damian Lillard who scored 43 against the Pelicans the last time these teams met. Both teams have been bad defensively ranking 28th and 29th in defensive efficiency but both rank in the top 6 when it comes to offensive efficiency. The scheduling dynamics favor the Blazers who are off a disappointing loss at Minnesota while the Pelicans are off a 135-scoring output and win against the Clippers. Portland is a solid 10-6 off a loss this year, 6-2 at home in that situation. New Orleans is just 5-12 SU on the road this year with the 22nd worst road differential in the league at minus -3.3PPG. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and this is where the Blazers have a key advantage as they shoot 38% from beyond the arc which is 8th best in the NBA and the Pelicans allow 39% 3-point shooting which is 28th worse in the league. Pelicans just 1-6 ATS when coming off a game in which they score 125 or more points, while Portland is 8-3 ATS their last eleven at home against a sub .400 road team. |
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03-15-21 | Bruins -109 v. Penguins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins Money Line -110 over Pittsburgh Penguins at 7 PM ET - The Bruins, overall, are a very strong hockey club that is also in a fantastic spot here. Boston is off a 4-0 shutout loss at home versus the New York Rangers. The Bruins already have won both meetings with the Penguins this season and also have outshot them by a combined 93 to 69 in the last 3 meetings. Boston is 2 for 5 on the power play in the 2 meetings this season while Pittsburgh is 0 for 14 on the power play in the last 4 meetings with the Bruins. Special team edges for the Bruins here and you can bet they will be ready here as they look to bounce back from the shutout loss to the Rangers. Boston has won 7 of its last 11 games played away from home and the Bruins have played very well as travelers except note that they did lose their most recent trip to Pittsburgh (last season) and now they have a chance at payback. The Penguins are currently 3 points ahead of the Bruins in the division but Boston has 2 games in hand and can start gaining valuable ground in the standings right here right now. The Bruins are a slight road favorite here for a reason. Do not let the line fool you. Road team payback here after a shutout loss. In terms of goal-tending, if Tuukka Rask is back for Boston tonight note that he has allowed just a single goal in each of his last 3 starts. If it is Jaroslav Halak between the pipes for the Bruins, note that he took the loss against the Rangers but that was preceded by him allowing a total of just two goals over his last 3 starts combined! Boston had gone 6 straight games without allowing more than a single goal in regulation time and they will resume their strong defensive play after the 4-0 shutout loss to the Rangers. The Penguins have been hot but we still question their goaltending with Jarry and DeSmith. Keep in mind Pittsburgh's recent winning run came against the slumping Flyers, the Rangers when Panarin was still out, and a very bad Sabres team. The Pens took advantage of that schedule but now things get much tougher here. Take the BRUINS |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Sacramento Kings, 7 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly playing well right now with three straight wins to climb over the .500 record for the season. Charlotte recently beat Minnesota, Detroit and Toronto who are all very comparable to this Kings team. The Hornets have been very solid at home with a 6-1 SU record their last seven home games AND they won those games by an average of 11PPG. Sacramento has not been a good road team this year with a 6-11 SU record and one of the worst road differentials in the NBA at minus -5.7PPG. The Kings are 1-6 SU their last seven road games, and that one win came against the Pistons who are one of the worst teams in the NBA. Not only that, those six losses all came by more than the tonight’s spread. Sacramento is 1-7 ATS their last eight as a dog. Charlotte takes care of business when it comes to weaker teams with a 6-1 ATS run versus teams with a losing record. Easy call here with Charlotte by double-digits. |
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03-14-21 | Clippers v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 115-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6 over LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - Obviously, the Clippers are one of the better road teams in the NBA at 12-8 SU with a point differential of +5.6PPG, but they’ve struggled of late with a 1-4 SU record their last five away from home. New Orleans is 2-3 SU their last five home games and one of those wins came against the Utah Jazz as a +7-point underdog. The Pelicans are 11-10 SU on their home floor this season and also have a positive plus/minus of +2.2PPG (12th best in the NBA). The Pelicans have cashed 7 of the last ten meetings in this series overall and 20 of the last twenty-seven in New Orleans. Based on our line analysis and the money moves on this game we are siding with the home team here plus the points. |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 150.5 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 151.5 Points – Ohio State vs Illinois, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET - This total is set too high for a Big Ten Championship game. We expect both defenses to be on top of their game with a title on the line. Illinois ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. In Big 10 play they allowed just 68 PPG on 41% shooting. OSU’s overall defensive numbers on the season are not as strong, however after losing 4 in a row to end the regular season, head coach Holtmann went back to the basics and focused on defense. It worked as they have been lights out on that end of the court in the Big 10 tourney allowing their 3 opponents to shoot just 38% combined. On Saturday they held a very potent Michigan offense (5th nationally in offensive efficiency) to just 67 points. The Wolverines held OSU to just 68 points and the Illini defense is definitely on par with Michigan’s (1st and 2nd in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency). On offense, Illinois takes fewer 3 pointers than any team in the league (25% of their points from deep) and OSU is in the middle of the pack (33% of points from 3). So we don’t expect a barrage of threes going up in this game an when they do, remember this is OSU’s 4th game in 4 days and Illinois 3rd game in 3 days so legs will be a factor when launching from deep. This is the Buckeyes THIRD highest total of the entire season and the other 2 were vs Iowa who is fast paced, the #1 offensive efficiency team in the Big 10 and not great defensively. The Illini had 6 totals this season set at 150 or higher and 5 of those games went UNDER the total. We expect the Big 10 Championship game to be a lower scoring game as it always has been. Teams know each other very well and are closing out a long, physically and emotionally draining weekend. Since the Big 10 tourney began in 1998 the average total combined points per game has been just 126.5. NOT ONE of those 22 games has topped 151 points and today’s total is 151.5. UNDER for us on this one. |
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03-13-21 | North Texas v. Western Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 61-57 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +1.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9 PM ET - These 2 were supposed to face off twice this year but both games were canceled. Their most recent meeting was last March and while that was a year ago, the result should bring some extra motivation to a very talented WKY team. It was a game at North Texas as the 2 were battling for the CUSA title. Western KY led by 6 late and UNT rallied to send the game to OT where they won and clinched the conference regular season title. Now the Hilltoppers have a chance to exact revenge and win the CUSA tourney title on Saturday night. WKY is playing their best basketball of the season right now. They’ve won 11 of their last 13 games with their only losses coming @ Houston (6th ranked in the nation on KenPom) and a 2-point loss vs Old Dominion, a game WKY led by 13 in the 2nd half. They are 5-4 this season vs Q1 & Q2 teams, the top competition they’ve faced this year. That includes a win @ Alabama and a near upset of West Virginia. This team is ultra talented led by future NBA big man Charles Bassey (21 PPG & 8 RPG). UNT is at a bit of a disadvantage here. They will be playing their 4th game in 4 days. WKY is playing their 3rd game. The Mean Green were not playing their best basketball heading into this tournament losing their final 3 regular season games. While the Hilltoppers had a winning record vs the best teams they played (Q1 & Q2) North Texas was 3-6 vs those opponents. Many of their offensive and defensive numbers are very similar in conference play but WKY should have a solid advantage in 2 areas. They are the better rebounding team (and fresher having played one less game) and they should get to the line more often here as they are #1 in CUSA in that category and UNT fouls a lot. If the Hilltoppers do get to the line a lot as we suspect, they should salt this one away as they rank 12th nationally making nearly 80% of their FT’s. Prior to their OT loss last March vs North Texas, the Hilltoppers controlled this series winning 11 straight. Western gets the win and cover and moves on to the Big Dance. |
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03-13-21 | Kings v. Hawks OVER 240 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 240 Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET - The Kings are average in road offensive efficiency, ranking 15th BUT they are HORRIBLE defensively on the road, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.171PPP. The Hawks at home have the 12th best offensive efficiency numbers in the league but are 22nd in defensive efficiency. In other words, both are solid offensively and bad defensively. The Kings are 9th in pace while the Hawks are 22nd. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency and both average over 112PPG. Defense is another matter as they both rank in the bottom 8 teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the Kings are last. The Kings have gone Over in 48 of their last 71 games overall, 38-18 Over their last 56 when a dog. The Hawks are on a 12-3 Over streak and have played Over in 35 of their last 50 at home against a team with a losing record. Vegas has set this number this high to scare you off. Don’t let it…BET OVER! |
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03-13-21 | Penguins v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 5.5 Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres, 7:00 PM ET - The value of having a 5.5 here is a big one. The Sabres have been having goaltending issues but do tend to score better when at home. The Penguins should continue to score plenty and, with their 5-2 win at Buffalo Thursday, Pittsburgh has seen each of their last 6 games and 8 of their last 9 total 6 or more goals. The Pens have scored an average of 4.3 goals per game their last 6 games. The Sabres are on a 9-game losing streak and have allowed an average of 4.8 goals per game in regulation their past 5 games. Buffalo has scored at least 2 goals in 6 straight games. Are computer math model reflects strong odds on at least a 4-2 game in this one. We like OVER here. |
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03-12-21 | Connecticut +1 v. Creighton | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut +1 over Creighton, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’ve said this before leading up to the conference tournaments, we have UConn ranked as the top team in the Big East. They should be favored in this game according to our power ratings. Their top player, and best player in the Big East, James Bouknight missed 8 games in the middle of the season and the Huskies were 4-4 during his absence. With him in the line up they are 11-2 with their only losses coming by 8 @ Villanova and by 2 points in OT vs this Creighton team. They shot just 36% and made only 26% of their 3’s and still took the Blue Jays to OT. We like them to get their revenge today. The Huskies are playing lights out right now winning 6 of 7 since Bouknight rejoined the lineup. All 6 of those wins were by double digits including a 34 point win yesterday vs DePaul. Creighton is also coming off a big win over Butler yesterday and also beat the Bulldogs to close out the regular season. Prior to that game they had lost back to back games vs Villanova & Xavier. The Jays are a very good shooting team but UConn is the #1 defense in the Big East (efficiency & eFG%) and held Creighton to 42% shooting in their 2 games this season. While Creighton won both, one was without Bouknight, and they way UConn’s offense is playing right now is far better than they were playing at the time these teams met. The Huskies covered both of those games and they are a remarkable 16-4-1 ATS on the season. Definitely an undervalued commodity and we like Connecticut to win this game outright. |
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03-12-21 | Coyotes v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 5.5 Arizona Coyotes at Minnesota Wild, 8:00 PM ET - The Wild have been riding a red hot goalie in Kaapo Kahkonen as they are 8-0 in his last 8 starts! However, Minnesota wants to give Cam Talbot some work here so he is getting the start in this one. He has allowed 4 or more goals in each of his last 3 starts. As you would expect with numbers like that, all 3 of those games went over the total. With Talbot getting the start here and knowing that the Wild are big favorites here for a reason it is worth mentioning that Minnesota has scored an average of 4 goals per game last 9 victories. So Minnesota gets theirs here but Talbot struggles again against an angry Coyotes team that is off a loss in a game at Colorado where they were fortunate to hang around as they generated only 14 shots on goal in the defeat. Arizona will put an emphasis on offensive zone production after a game like that and they'll take advantage of facing Talbot. Prior to that loss the Coyotes won 3 of 4 games plus scored an average of 3 goals per game during that stretch. Both Arizona's games with Minnesota this season totaled at least 6 goals and this one will as well. We like OVER here. |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - Both teams are trending up right now as the Nuggets have won four straight, while the Grizzlies have won 3 of their last four. We like the fact the Grizz have played a game after the All-Star break (beat Washington) while Denver has yet to play. Memphis has a pair of great games against two of the best teams in the NBA at home recently as they beat the Clippers bad (122-94) and lost by 1-point to Milwaukee. The Grizzlies have covered four in a row overall and have cashed 5 of the last six against the Nuggets in Memphis. The break couldn’t have come at a worse time for Denver who had won four in a row. The line on this game is the “tell” though as the Nuggets were just a -3.5-point favorites at Indiana who we rate higher than Memphis. Why the low number? In contrarian fashion we will be the opposite of the way Vegas wants you to bet. Back the home dog here. |
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03-12-21 | Ohio State v. Purdue UNDER 143 | Top | 87-78 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
#813/814 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 143 Points – Ohio State vs Purdue, Friday at 2 PM ET - OSU played Minnesota yesterday in what appeared to be a high scoring game with the Buckeyes winning 79-75. It went over the total of 145. However, a closer look reveals that if not for a flurry of points late, this would have been a lower scoring affair. With just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game, the 2 teams had 135 total points which means they scored 19 points in the final minute. The 2 teams had just 66 points at half. The Buckeyes, minus the last few minutes of the game, played outstanding defense. That had been their Achilles heal during their 4 game losing streak to end the season but remember 3 of those 4 teams they faced (Michigan, Illinois, & Iowa) all rank in the top 8 nationally in offensive efficiency. Head coach Chris Holtmann really stressed defensive intensity to his team entering the Big 10 tourney and they responded. The Gophs shot just 36% and had only 58 points with under 2:00 minutes remaining. The Buckeyes offense played very well but they were facing a Minnesota defense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency. It should be much different on Friday with the Buckeyes facing a Purdue defense that ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Boilers also prefer a much slower pace (273rd nationally) compared to Minnesota so there will be fewer possessions in this game. The 2 met twice this season with Purdue winning both 67-60 and 67-65. Defense ruled the day in those 2 meetings with the teams combining to shoot 43% in each game. These 2 rivals know each other very well and when they get together it’s usually a low scoring, grinder type game. In fact, over the last 12 meetings, these 2 have topped 140 total points only twice. This one goes UNDER the total. |
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03-11-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas OVER 134.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – Texas vs Texas Tech, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - These 2 played less than 2 weeks ago and the total for that game was set at 134.5. The final score was Tech 68 / Texas 59 for a total of 127 points. Despite that game going under, this total is set higher than the first meeting and we agree. If you take a close look at that game, the teams combined to shoot only 39% from the field and made only 11 of their 37 three point attempts for just 29%. Even with those poor shooting numbers, these teams nearly got to 130 which is only a few possessions short of tonight’s total. Both of these offenses are solid ranking 3rd and 4th in Big 12 offensive efficiency and for the season Texas averages 75 PPG & Tech puts up 73 PPG. They are also both very good three point shooting teams ranking 3rd and 4th in the league in that area as well. As you can see these offenses are much better than their showing a few weeks ago and we expect the numbers to be much better in this game. The one thing they did do in that game which helps a potential OVER is they got to the FT line with 38 made freebies in 53 attempts. Both teams foul often and their opponents put up over 21% of their points from the FT line which ranks each in the top 50 in highest percentage of points allowed from the stripe. So we look for a bunch of FT attempts again on Thursday evening and it they can improve their field goal shooting, which we expect they will, this one should get into the 140’s. Take the OVER here. |
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03-11-21 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - Brooklyn is the team to beat in the East and Boston has certainly slipped in our power rankings since the start of the season. The Celtics went into the All-Star break on a 4-game winning streak but prior to that had been just average. In comparison the Nets have played extremely well in their last ten games going 9-1 SU with an average differential of +10PPG. Brooklyn has shot 51% over that ten-game span and face a Celtics defense that 17th in defensive field goal percentage at 46.7%. The Nets are the 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting team in the league too at 40.7% which has helped them average 121PPG. The line on this game is clearly off as the Celtics were recently a +4.5-points underdog at home to the Clippers and the Nets rate near even to the LA in our metrics, meaning the Nets should be at least -4.5 here. When laying -4.5-points or less this season the Nets are 100% or 6-0 ATS. Bet the Nets at home in this one. |
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03-11-21 | Rangers v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 150 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - Panarin is back practicing with the Rangers but he won't be playing tonight. He is the Rangers best player. Shesterkin is the Rangers #1 goalie and he is still out with an injury. That said, New York is still a little short-handed at both ends of the ice here and they are facing an angry Bruins team that is off back to back losses. Boston is a perfect 3-0 this season when off back to back defeats and the last two victories have come by a combined score of 11 to 4. The Bruins are a big favorite here but we get line value by playing them on the puck line at -1.5 goals to get a big plus money return. Boston's last 3 wins have been by a combined score of 16 to 5. The Rangers last 3 losses have all been by multiple goal margins and a combined score of 13 to 4. The Bruins are offering line value here because goalie Rask is out but Halak has been fantastic between the pipes and comes up with another fantastic start here. Halak has had just one bad game this season. He allowed 7 goals in that one but just 1.5 goals per game in his other 8 starts. Another gem here. Laying the 1.5 goals (for a solid plus money return, currently in the +150 range) with Boston is the value play here. |
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03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET - We like the Spurs here and the points in this Texas showdown. When you think of the Mavs you think of offense and points, but the reality is, they rank just 4-spots higher in total offense than the Spurs do and both are in the bottom half of the NBA in scoring. The big advantage the Spurs have here is defense. San Antonio ranks 10th in points allowed per game compared to the Mavericks ranking 18th. The Spurs can also exploit the Mavericks on the glass with the 10th best offensive rebounding margin in the NBA, going up against the Mavs 22nd ranked defensive unit. The Spurs limped into the All-Star break but were hampered by injuries. Dallas won 8 of their last twelve games which is why this line is what it is and offering value. San Antonio has been incredible on the road this season with a 9-4 SU record and a +3.9PPG average margin of victory which is 9th best in the NBA. Dallas on the other hand has a negative differential at home of minus -2.2PPG which ranks 20th. Easy call with the Spurs here and the points. |
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03-09-21 | Southern Miss v. Rice -4.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
#826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rice -4.5 over Southern Miss, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Rice had the #1 strength of schedule rating in Conference USA play, played one less game, and still finished with 2 more wins than Southern Miss. The Owls were 6-10 overall in league play (13-12 overall on the season) and in their final 10 conference games, they played 8 of those games vs CUSA’s top tier teams (Western KY, UAB, Louisiana Tech, and North Texas). So they had a very difficult schedule from mid January on to get them ready for this tourney. The 2 games during that stretch that were not vs the top teams in the league were vs this Southern Miss team. Rice beat USM in both games by 26 & 8 points and the Owls dominated trailing for a grand total of 50 seconds in the 2 games combined! Rice controlled the boards with a +19 rebounding edge in the 2 games combined and they made 14 more 3-pointers. We don’t see that changing this time around as the Owls are 2nd best 3-point shooting team in CUSA and USM scores fewer points from beyond the arc than any team in the league. On top of all that, Rice played that series without one of their top players, Chris Mullins, who averages 11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 3 APG. He’s since come back and is at full strength. Southern Miss has only 8 wins on the season and they are just 4-13 in CUSA play. Seven of their eight wins have come vs teams ranked 295th or lower. The Golden Eagles struggle to score as they have reached 70 points just twice in their last 12 games while ranking 303rd nationally in offensive efficiency. Since Southern Miss head coach Ladner took over at the beginning of last season, they have a 9-26 record in CUSA play. Rice gets the win & cover on Tuesday night. |
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03-09-21 | Bruins -103 v. Islanders | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins Money Line -110 over New York Islanders at 7 PM ET - The Bruins, overall, are a very strong hockey club that is also in a fantastic spot here. Boston is off a 1-0 shutout loss at home versus New Jersey. The Bruins also have lost all 3 meetings with the Islanders this season. You can bet they will be ready here as they seek revenge and also look to bounce back from the loss to the Devils. Boston has won 7 of its last 10 games played away from home and 2 of those 3 defeats were at the hands of the Islanders. In other words, the Bruins have played very well as travelers except against the Islanders and now they have a chance at payback. The Islanders are currently in first place in the division but Boston has 3 games in hand and can start gaining valuable ground in the standings right here right now. The Bruins are a slight road favorite here for a reason. Do not let the line fool you. Road team payback here after a shutout loss. Take the BRUINS |
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03-08-21 | North Dakota State -3 v. South Dakota | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
#789 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Dakota State -3 over South Dakota, Monday at 9:45 PM ET - This line opened at NDSU -1.5 and was way off according to our power ratings. Not surprisingly, minutes after it opened it moved up to -3 and we still like the value on the Bison. We have this set at -5 in favor of North Dakota State. These 2 must met to close out the regular season and split their games, both @ South Dakota. We were on South Dakota in the first game it what we thought was a great spot to grab them at home. They rewarded us with an 80-71 win, however they lost their 1st team All Conference performer, AJ Plitzuweit, toward the end of that game to a season ending knee injury. Plitzuweit averaged 19 PPG, 5 RPG, and shot 43% from beyond the arc. Huge loss to say the least. The following day South Dakota again played host to NDSU and lost by 12. The Bison were favored by 2.5 in that game on the road and now only 3 on a neutral. You can see why we like the value here. North Dakota State played what looked like a close game yesterday beating UMKC by 4. However, they led by 16 at half and by 22 in the 2nd half so the game was never really in doubt. South Dakota beat a bad Western Illinois team in their Summit League tourney opener but an already thin team before losing Plitzuweit, their starters all logged 30+ minutes and not one reserve played more than 9 minutes. One thing we took away from the 2 games these 2 played at the end of the season was the Jackrabbits can’t hang on the boards. The Bison were +21 rebounds in their 2 meetings combined which isn’t surprising as they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Summit. They are also the best defensive team ranking #1 in eFG% allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. That will be a problem for South Dakota who relies heavily on the 3 and just lost their best shooter. The way the first game played out, the Bison were down late and committed a bunch of fouls to send SD to the line in an attempt to come back. South Dakota, a very good FT shooting team, was +18 made FT’s in that game. In the rematch when the points from the stripe evened out, NDSU won by double digits. The Bison foul fewer than any team in the league so that is not what normally happens in their games. We expect the Bison to be ahead for most of this game an if they need to salt this game away with FT’s late, they make 76% from the line. We’ll lay the small number here and take North Dakota State. |
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03-08-21 | Senators v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6.5 Goals – Edmonton Oilers vs Ottawa Senators, Monday at 9 PM ET – The Senators are in the second game of a back to back and off a 4-3 upset win in the shootout at Calgary. Ottawa used #1 goalie Matt Murray last night. He has not been that strong anyway but is unlikely to play in the 2nd game of a back to back. Senators choices are limited because Marcus Hogberg has been out with an injury. That means Joey Daccord has been the backup but he has very little NHL experience and has struggled in his limited action this season. So it will likely be a tired Murray or a rusty Daccord between the pipes for this one. Neither option is a good one and Edmonton is primed for a huge night of goal-scoring. The Senators have scored 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 9 games. The Oilers are favored here for good reason. In other words, this game should end up at least 4-3 as Edmonton prevails but gives up some goals along the way. Ottawa has been scoring well enough but allows too many and that is why 7 of their last 11 games have totaled at least 7 goals. In fact those 7 games averaged 9 goals! Speaking of high-scoring games, the Senators last 3 visits to Edmonton have seen the game totals average 8.7 goals per game. The Oilers are off a big win versus rival Calgary and resumed the solid play we saw from them prior to the tough 3-game set with the Maple Leafs. Now Edmonton goes from facing the top team in the division to facing the bottom team in the division and their high-scoring ways will resume. The Oilers were averaging scoring 4 goals per game over a 16-game stretch prior to the tough 3-game set with the Maple Leafs. Now after a bounce back win over the Flames and catching the Senators in a back to back, the Oilers will be flying all over the ice in this one and skating well but their goalies have allowed 3.8 goals per game in the last 4 games. Take the OVER here. |
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03-07-21 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Coastal Carolina -4 over Appalachian State, 9PM ET - App State will have to deal with fatigue here as they are playing their 3rd game in three days AND are coming off an OT game yesterday. In yesterday’s win over Texas State, App State had four starters log over 38-minutes and have five players that saw 32 or more minutes of action. Coastal on the other hand is off a blowout win over Troy yesterday and were able to spread the minutes out through eleven players. Coastal Carolina has the best player on the floor in this game with DeVante Jones who is averaging 20.2PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.2APG. These two teams are near even in offensive efficiency ratings with Coastal averaging 1.024-points per possession, while Appalachian State averages 1.037PPP. The big separator here is defense. Coastal is the 2nd best defense in the Sun Belt allowing just .946PPP compared to App State who ranks 10th allowing 1.026PPP. The Chanticleers have the 29th best EFG% defense in the nation, limiting opponents to just 46.2%. They also rank top 55 overall in both 2pt percentage and 3pt percentage defense. The Mountaineers on the other hand are 217th in EFG% defense and rank 179th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt percentage defense. Off their big upset win yesterday we expect App State to regress here and predict a double-digit win by Coastal Carolina |
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03-07-21 | Capitals v. Flyers -106 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Flyers Money Line -105 over Washington at 7 PM ET - The Capitals are off a very physical loss to the Bruins Friday. That 5-1 defeat also saw their most physical player, Tom Wilson, deliver a bad hit on Brandon Carlo of the Bruins and Wilson is now on a 7-game suspension for Washington. That will hurt this team some and they are taking on a Philly team that is in a back to back spot but on their home ice and with Carter Hart between the pipes. Hart has shown a long-term tendency for dominating in his home ice starts so he is absolutely in his comfort zone here. Also, Philadelphia hammered the Capitals 7-4 in the most recent meeting and this Flyers team is, for the most part, healthy again after already dealing with covid issues a few weeks ago. Philadelphia could get Philippe Myers back here as well. Each team does have a couple personnel issues here but the absence of Wilson could hurt the Caps in a back to back physical match-up as these teams don't like each other to say the least. Keep in mind, Carter Hart went 20-3-2 with a 1.63 GAA in his home starts last season and has only 1 regulation loss in 6 decisions on home ice this season. Take the FLYERS |
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03-07-21 | Memphis v. Houston -9.5 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a battle for 2nd place in the AAC as Wichita State already clinched the regular season title with a win over South Florida on Saturday. Houston has the most wins in the league at 13 but Wichita only played 13 games and went 11-2 so they are locked into the top seed. This is a battle for 2nd place. Despite battling for 2nd place, Houston is by far the best team in this conference. Most metrics have them ranked in the top 10 in the nation while Wichita is a bubble team at best. Memphis isn’t even really a serious bubble team right now. Most have them sitting as 10-15 spots outside the final bid. The Tigers have played just 3 games since an 18 day Covid break which started early in February. While they are 3-0 in those games, 2 of the wins came vs South Florida & Tulane, two of the three lowest rated teams in the AAC. Their lone decent win since they came back was a 6-point win over Cincinnati but the Bearcats played that game without one of the top players (DeJulius) and one of the top reserves (Harvey). The Tigers are great defensively. The problem here is, Houston is every bit as good defensively and MUCH better on offense. The Cougars are 1 of only 4 teams in the nation that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom. The others are Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois. Houston is absolutely dominant at home. This will be their 4th straight home game and their home finale and they’ve won their previous 3 by a combined 108 points! That includes a 38 point win over Cincinnati (and the Bearcats were healthy) and a 24 point win over Western Kentucky who is one of the top teams on Conference USA. The Cougs are 14-0 at home (6-1 ATS in AAC play at home) with an average final score of 82-54. They’ve only had one win all season long by less than 10 points and that was a 7-point win over Wichita in a game Houston led by 14 with 5 minutes remaining. The Cougars will be very motivated in their final home game and out to prove they are the best team in the league and deserved the #1 seed. Houston wins and covers again at home. |
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03-06-21 | Xavier v. Marquette -1.5 | Top | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -1.5 over Xavier, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Marquette had a poor stretch from late January into February but they pulled out of their funk and their playing perhaps their best basketball of the season to close it out. The Golden Eagles were dealt an extremely tough scheduling situation to close out the year as they are coming off SIX straight road games. This is their home finale and their first game at home in a full month. They went 3-3 over that 6 game road stretch including wins over North Carolina (by double digits) and over Butler who has been playing great at home including wins over Villanova & Creighton, the 2 top teams in the league. They’ve now won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road as we mentioned) and now have big time momentum coming home. Xavier is heading in the opposite direction losing 4 of their 6 games since coming back from a 2 week Covid break which started in early February. They are just 1-4 SU this season on the road in conference play. XU has shot just 42% since their return from their hiatus and they’ve failed to top 68 points in 3 of their last 4 games. They are the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big East hitting only 29% on the season which makes it tough to win on the road. The Musketeers beat Marquette at home by 3 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer earlier this season. Just a little more fuel for the Golden Eagles. The favorite has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we love the momentum Marquette brings into this one as they finally get to play a home game. |
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03-06-21 | Blue Jackets v. Stars -133 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas Stars Money Line -130 over Columbus at 8 PM ET - The Blue Jackets got a tight 3-2 win at Dallas Thursday for their 2nd straight win. However, the season is nearly two months in and Columbus has yet to produce a winning streak longer than just 2 games! We don't see that trend ending here as the Jackets continue to be a team plagued by inconsistency this season. Prior to this 2-game winning streak, Columbus had lost 7 of 8 games. Certainly Dallas has not impressed early this season but this is still a Stars team that was representing the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals last season! The Stars began this season with 4 straight home wins. Now their last 6 home games have seen 3 regulation losses and 3 OT/SO losses. A determined Dallas team will take to the ice here and they are favored in the -130 range here with good reason. Look for the Stars to come out flying in this one. They will not be denied after Thursday's tight loss to the Blue Jackets. Take the STARS |
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03-05-21 | Valparaiso +7.5 v. Missouri State | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Valparaiso +7.5 over Missouri State, Friday at 9 PM ET - Valpo is playing their best basketball over the last month or so. They are 7-11 on the season in MVC play but 7-8 SU their last 15. Four of those eight wins have been tight games with Valpo losing by 7 or less. We’re getting some value her because the Crusaders lost both games vs Mizzou State by 13 & 10 points way back in early January with Valparaiso wasn’t playing well. They were 3.5 point underdogs in those game and now getting 8 = value in our opinion. Down the stretch this team beat Drake (2nd rated team in the MVC), lost by 2 vs Loyola Chicago (top game in the conference) and beat Indiana State (4th ranked team in the league). The Crusaders are now 5-1 ATS their last 6 games vs teams with above .500 SU records. Missouri State has won 7 of their last 8 games but they played the worst teams in the Missouri Valley down the stretch. Valpo has had a number if players in the rotation miss games this season but they are at full strength now and they are better than their 7-11 conference record. Defensively they’ve been solid over the last month allowing only 2 of their last 9 opponents to get to 70 points. The Crusaders were 4-1 ATS this year as dogs of 7 or more in conference play and we like this one to go to the wire. Take Valparaiso and the points. |
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03-05-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6 Goals – Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning, Friday at 8 PM ET – Yesterday's game ended up a 3-2 overtime win for the Lightning. Both teams used their top goalie last night. That means their only choice tonight is to go with those guys again (unlikely) in the 2nd of a back to back or go to their back-ups (likely) tonight. That being said, we like the over plenty in this one. The Lightning back-up is Curtis McElhinney. He allowed 4 goals in a 5-2 loss to Chicago the last time he faced them. The Blackhawks back-up is Malcolm Subban. He allowed 5 goals when he most recently faced TB and that was in January. In the other half of that same 2-game set in mid-January, the Hawks also used their other netminder Collin Delia and he also allowed 5 goals to Tampa! The point is that when it is not starting goalie Kevin Lankinen between the pipes for Chicago, the Lightning have feasted. If Lankinen did go tonight it would be the 2nd night of a back to back and that is not a good situation. If Subban goes he allowed 5 goals in his most recent start and that was also his only home start this season. If the Lightning did go with Andrei Vasilevskiy tonight it would be the 2nd night of a back to back and that is not a good situation. If McElhinney goes, he is coming off a good start but allowed 6 goals in the start right before that and also struggled against Chicago when he most recently faced them. We have a total of 6 goals to work with here and Tampa Bay is off back to back low-scoring games but this was on the heels of a 14-game stretch in which TB scored at least 3 goals in 12 of the 14 games! The Blackhawks lost last night's game on home ice to these Bolts in OT by a 3-2 final but entered that game scoring an average of 4 goals per game on home ice this season. Given all of the above, we expect each team to get to 3 goals in this one and that would lead to at least a 4-3 final here. Tampa Bay's only other road back to back this season saw the 2nd game total 7 goals. Chicago's only other home back to back this season saw the 2nd game total 9 goals! Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 6.5 goals - still holding solidly at 6 as of mid-morning, we like OVER here. |
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03-05-21 | Evansville v. Indiana State UNDER 135 | Top | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
#869/870 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135 Points – Evansville vs Indiana State, Friday at 3 PM ET - We love the value here on the UNDER. These 2 met twice in mid February and the totals set on those 2 games was 123.5 and 127. Both went OVER the total so now we are getting Friday’s opener at 135 which is a full 11.5 points higher than their first meeting. Were the oddsmakers that far off with their initial totals for those meetings? No. The teams went crazy offensively in those games which pushed both over the total. The first meeting ended with ISU winning 76-70. The 2 teams combined to take only 93 shots in that game but made 53 of those shots which was 57%. They also combined to make 41% of their 3-pointers. In the rematch the 2 teams attempted 104 total shots and made 60 of those for 58%. The also made 44% of their 3-pointers in that game. For comparison’s sake, for the season these teams make 43.7% and 44.3% of their shots (38% and 33% from beyond the arc) so both hit WAY above their averages in those 2 games. They were both very slow paced games as we can see by the total shots and that’s not surprising as Evansville ranks 355th (out of 357 teams) in tempo while Indiana State ranks 219th. The Sycamores are very solid defensively ranking in the top 100 in defensive efficiency (4th in the MVC) and while Evansville is not a great defensive team, ISU still performed well above their offensive expectations (based on facing Evansville’s defense) in the first meetings. 135 may not seem like a high total, but keep in mind ISU has had 9 of their last 10 totals set at 137.5 or less and Evansville has had only one total ALL SEASON set higher than 135. Now we are at a neutral site in St Louis and it’s tourney time. One and done. We expect both defenses to perform much better this time around and another very slow paced game with limited shot attempts is on tap. Unless they both go off the charts again offensively, this one should stay UNDER the total. |
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03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Sun -6.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10PM ET - The Warriors could feel the effects of a close game last night in Portland where the key starters saw 30+ minutes of action, while the Suns were at home resting. Phoenix is coming off an impressive win over the Lakers in which Devin Booker was ejected in the 3rd quarter and the second unit played the majority of the 4th quarter in a convincing road win. Golden State relies heavily on Steph Curry to carry the offensive load while Draymond Green does all the dirty work on the defensive end of the court. The Warriors are 3-6 SU their last nine road games and have a loss here earlier this season by 21-points. The Warriors rank 23rd in the NBA with a negative road point differential of minus -4.3PPG. Phoenix is 11-6 SU at home and have the 3rd best average margin of victory at home of +7.2PPG. Both teams are near even when it comes to offensive statistics, but the Suns hold a decisive advantage defensively allowing 5 less points per game than Golden State and rank 2nd in the NBA in 3-point percentage defense. Golden State is 6-17-1 ATS their last 24 games playing without rest and that trend continues here. |
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03-04-21 | Jets +142 v. Canadiens | Top | 4-3 | Win | 142 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets Money Line +140 over Montreal at 7 PM ET - We successfully used Winnipeg in a 5-2 win over Vancouver on Tuesday as it was payback time for the Jets after that rare loss to the Canucks Monday. Winnipeg, entering Monday's game, had won 4 straight games and 8 of their last 11 games. The Canadiens are off a win as well but they had entered Tuesday night's game having lost 7 of 8 games. This is clearly a case of two teams heading opposite directions for multiple weeks now and one game does not change all that. The fact is that Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck is known for being great in bounce back mode and he was in goal for Monday's loss to the Canucks. Winnipeg's Hellebuyck is 6-1 this season when he starts a game in which he lost his prior start or in which the Jets are coming off a loss. We'll take advantage of the line value here because the Canadiens have not responded all that well since the coaching change and still seem to be in a transitional cycle. That said the big dog comeback price on Winnipeg here is an excellent value as this is the perfect spot to back a strong team facing an over-priced favorite that has still been shaky of late. Take the JETS |
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03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +11.5 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
#727 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State +11.5 over Baylor, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for a Baylor team that frankly isn’t playing to the dominant level they were earlier in the season. The Bears just beat West Virginia in OT on Tuesday night to clinch their first regular season Big 12 Title in 71 years! Now with their Big 12 tournament seeding set at #1, they have to play 48 hours later vs an Oklahoma State team that is playing their best basketball of the season. Baylor has played 3 games since returning from a 21 day covid break and as we mentioned, they haven’t been all that great. They rallied from 17 down to beat a bad Iowa State team (0-16 in the conference) by 5, lost by 13 @ Kansas, and then beat WVU in OT on Tuesday. They’ve hit only 43% of their shots over that 3 game stretch and they’ve been out rebounded in 2 of those games. Far from dominating. Okie State has won 8 of their last 10 including a sweep of a very good Oklahoma team their last 2 games. They’ve been impressive on the road with a 7-3 record including wins @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, and @ Marquette. The Cowboys 3 road losses in Big 12 play have come by an average of 6 PPG. These two met in January when Baylor was destroying pretty much everyone and the Bears topped OSU by 15. The Cowboys played that game without their star freshman Cade Cunningham (20 PPG & 6 RPG) who might just be the #1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. They were also without starter Rondel Walker who averages 9 PPG & 3 RPG. Prior to OSU losing earlier this year and obviously not at 100%, this was a tight series with the 4 match ups the last 2 seasons decided by 3, 4, 7, and 8 points. If this was Baylor’s final home game and Senior night, we might be reluctant to fade them even though this is a bad scheduling situation. However, they host Texas Tech this weekend for their home finale. We think OSU can give Baylor a big time scare here and taking the generous points is the play. |
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03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
#686 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Villanova -4 over Creighton, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Nova as a win pretty much clinches the Big East regular season title. It’s also their final home game so they are set to send off 2 of the better players in program history with a win. Starting PG Gillespie (1200 career points) and starting F Samuels are both seniors potentially playing their final game at home. Speaking of home, the Cats have been great in their own arena this year with a perfect 8-0 record and an average margin of victory of +16. Going back even further, Nova has won 63 of their last 70 home games and they have won 6 of their last 7 @ home vs the Jays. However, they did lose last year at home vs Creighton so they should have a little extra for this one. On top of that, the Wildcats traveled to Creighton on Feb 13th as a 2-point favorite and lost 86-70. The Blue Jays shot nearly 60% in that game and averaged a ridiculous 1.34 PPP. It was a terrible defensive performance and the Cats bounced back a few days later to beat a very good UConn team here at home. Speaking of bouncing back, Villanova had 3 losses on the season entering last weekend and they rebounded to win their following game after each of those. They laid an egg on Sunday @ Butler losing by 12 for their 4th loss of the season and we expect a huge effort in this one. They shot just 2 of 27 from three point range in that loss (7%) one of their worst performances in the Jay Wright era. Now they are back at home where they make 40% of their 3’s and average 81 PPG. Villanova was favored by 2 @ Creighton and now they are laying just 4 at home, off a loss, on Senior night. Like this spot for the Wildcats. |
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03-03-21 | Nets -8 v. Rockets | Top | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -8 over Houston Rockets, 7:30 PM ET - This game sets up very similar to when we bet on the Nets over the Warriors in KD’s first game back in the Bay when Brooklyn handled Golden State. James Harden will play with a chip on his shoulder tonight back in Houston for the first time since being traded to the Nets. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team from beyond the arc this season at 40.5%. Houston is LAST in the league in 3-point shooting at 33%. Brooklyn will have their way offensively here with the highest scoring offense in the NBA at 120.8PPG going up against a Rockets defense that gives up 112.2PPG (18th). The Rockets are clearly reeling right now with 11-straight losses and 8 of those beats came against teams with sub .500 records. Brooklyn has won and covered 6 straight road games and they’ll get another big win here. |