Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total – Cleveland @ Kansas City, Sunday at 3 PM ET - High total here but we still don’t think It’s high enough. Both of these teams have a strong potential to reach the 30’s in this game and we wouldn’t doubt it if both get above that number. KC has had a few weeks off so we know HC Andy Reid will have a number of new wrinkles on offense. He always has his team ready offensively but especially so in the playoffs with time off. The last 2 years in the division round (week off heading into the game) the Chiefs have scored 82 combined points or 41 PPG. They are facing the weakest defense remaining in the playoffs as Cleveland ranks 25th in DVOA defense. Speaking of the weakest defense remaining, KC is right their with Browns ranking 22nd DVOA defense (the 2nd worst defense left in the post season). Both defenses weaknesses match up very poorly with the opposing offense. KC is 31st DVOA rush defense and Cleveland is one of the top running teams in the league ranking 7th DVOA rush offense. On the other side, the Browns are poor at slowing down opposing pass offenses ranking 25th DVOA defense vs the pass and KC’s pass offense is fantastic ranking 2nd DVOA pass offense. Both of these offenses have the potential to put up big numbers in this game. The Chiefs reached 30+ points in 9 of their 15 games (we are excluding the final regular season game when they sat Mahomes and starters) including games vs Saints, Ravens, and the Dolphins, all top 5 scoring defenses. The Browns offensive numbers are lower than they should be on the season as they played 3 games at home in extremely high winds & 1 game without their entire WR corps. If we subtract those games Cleveland averaged 30 PPG and that includes a 6 point performance in the season opener @ Baltimore and a 7 point performance @ Pittsburgh. They hit 30+ points vs some very good defenses as well including Pittsburgh (last week), Baltimore (in 2nd meeting), Indianapolis, and Washington. We know Mahomes will put up big numbers, however Cleveland QB Mayfield has been playing great as well down the stretch throwing for 2000 yards, 14 TD’s and 1 interception since Thanksgiving. We know Cleveland will have to “keep up” on the scoreboard here and they are more than capable of doing so. OVER is the play. |
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01-17-21 | Bulls +7 v. Mavs | Top | 117-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7 @ Dallas Mavericks, 3 PM ET - The Bulls have lost four straight games, but they’ve been competitive in all of those losing by a combined 11 total points. Prior to this losing streak they had won 4 of five games including a win at home over this Dallas team. In their last four game the Bulls lost to the Clippers by 3-points and the Lakers by 2-points, both on the road. As a dog this season the Bulls have covered 8 of ten games. The Mavs look like a MASH unit right now with several key contributors currently sidelined, but they did recently get Porzingis back in the lineup. Dallas is also on a nice spread run with five straight covers but all but one of those were as a dog or small favorite. The Mavs have a winning record at 6-5 SU with an average point differential of +4.3PPG which is not enough to cover here. Chicago has a negative differential of -4.8PPG this season which is good enough to get the money here. Dallas may win this game but it won’t be by a wide margin. |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore +2.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - The Ravens should have a huge advantage on the ground in this game. They are the #1 rush offense in the NFL (191 YPG) and they’ve been on fire as of late averaging 262 YPG rushing over their last 6 games including topping 230 yards rushing in 5 of those games. That success should continue facing a Buffalo defense that allows 4.7 YPG (27th in the NFL) and gave up 163 yards on 5.4 YPC last week vs Indy. The Bills found a way to win that game but they were outgained on the ground and through the air in that one. Buffalo is a poor running team already and lost their top RB Moss to an injury last week. Baltimore has a fairly large edge overall defensively ranking in the top 10 in many key categories. They have the highest blitz rate in the NFL and we think Buffalo QB Allen will make some mistakes because of that pressure. Last week the Ravens held the Titans (6th ranked offense in the NFL) to just 209 total yards. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a great road playoff coach has he now owns the all time record for wins on the road in the post season with 8. He has a road warrior type team as the Ravens are 15-3 SU their last 18 road games and 13-4 ATS their last 17 road playoff games. Not only that, Baltimore QB Jackson has started 39 games in his career and only lost 3 of those by more than 6 points so when they do lose, it’s close. Baltimore led the NFL in point differential for the 2nd straight year and we feel they are undervalued. With very little to no home field advantage and the way the Ravens perform on the road, we’ll take the points here. |
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01-16-21 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET |
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01-16-21 | Baylor -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#691 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -4.5 over Texas Tech, 4:00 PM ET - Baylor has been one of two dominant teams this year along with Gonzaga. The Bears are 11-0 with all 11 wins coming by double digits. That includes 4 wins vs top 100 teams and an 13 point win vs an outstanding Illinois team who ranks 8th nationally in the power rankings. Their average margin of victory on the season is +28 points. They rank in the top 5 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bears also rank in the top 10 nationally in eFG%, 3 point %, and offensive rebounding. This is as complete a team as you’ll find in the nation. Texas Tech is solid. They are not on the same level as Baylor. The Red Raiders have already lost 2 home games vs Oklahoma State & Kansas. They have won just 2 games this season vs top 50 teams both by margins of 2 points. Tech is coming off a huge won @ Texas winning 79-77 on a last second shot by Mac McClung. The Raiders were more than fortunate as they led that game for a total of 45 seconds. Baylor won both games in this Big 12 series last year and the Bears have taken a big step forward while our ratings have Tech at about the same level as a year ago. We actually feel Tech is a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 5 straight home games to the number. Baylor is the much better team this season and we’ll lay the small number. |
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01-15-21 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 227.5 | Top | 138-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 LA Clippers @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Kings have struggled to stop anyone this season and teams have put up a ton of points against Sacramento’s defense. The Kings are allowing 122PPG on the season which ranks 30th in the NBA, they allow opponents to make 49.5% of their FG attempts (30th) and allow 38.9% 3-point shooting which is 26th. Factoring into this wager of course is the Kings pace of play which rates 8th fastest in the NBA and an offense that is 12th in the league in efficiency scoring 1.123 points per every possession. Sacramento has given up 122 or more points in 7 of their last eight games so expect the Clippers to get to at least that here. Speaking of the Clippers, they are coming off a game against the Bulls who have very similar numbers to the Kings and that game ended with 257 total points. L.A. is the 3rd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.159 points per possession, but their defense ranks 26th worst allowing 1.144PPP. Let’s not forget the league average for total points scored in an NBA game this season is 222.8PPG and the Kings score and allow more than league average while the Clippers score more but allow slightly less. The opening total on this game by Vegas was accurate and the move down gives us added value. Bet Over. |
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01-14-21 | Canucks v. Oilers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
#67 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 goals: Vancouver at Edmonton, Thu at 9:00 PM ET - This is a rematch of last night's game and we'll see a lot of match-ups happening in this form this season as it is part of the scheduling favored by the NHL to limit travel in this covid-19 impacted season. We're happy to take advantage of the value being offered in this one as back to backs always tend to be particularly tough on the defensemen and also stress the goal-tending situation. That being said, it is also noteworthy that both these hockey clubs came into this season already having concerns in those areas as being the possible weak spots of the club. Last night's 5-3 final is likely a sign of things to come for each of these teams as the game exploded for 5 goals in the 3rd period. The fact that the teams went a combined 0 for 6 on the power play and yet the game still totaled 8 goals says quite a lot! Also, the fact this total opened up at a 5.5 for yesterday's game and went to a 6 and then that game flew over the total also speaks volumes. Play this one early as we don't expect the 5.5 numbers to last very long for tonight's game either. 10* OVER 5.5 goals: Vancouver at Edmonton |
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01-14-21 | Hornets v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -7.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7:30 PM ET - We have waited for a spot to play on the Raptors and this is a solid one. Toronto has gotten off to a horrible start by their expectations and are coming off a 4 game West coast road trip where they went 1-3 SU. They have just 2 wins on the season after going 53-19 in the regular season a year ago. Charlotte hasn’t been a great road team going 27-48 SU the past two years, last season they had the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA of -8.1PPG. The Hornets are in a bad scheduling situation here playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back to back after a game last night versus Dallas. This line is set up to draw Charlotte money and we won’t bite. Back the Raptors in this one. |
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01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah +1.5 over Stanford, 5 PM ET *Early tip* With public money immediately flowing in on Stanford this line moved the opposite direction which grabbed our attention. Utah has some tremendous offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers despite playing a brutally tough schedule. The Utes have lost four straight games, but it came against teams rated 28th or better by Kenpom. Utah lost three of those games close to UCLA by 2, Oregon by 6 and Colorado by 7-points and they got outscored from the charity strip by 16 in that one. Stanford has won 3 in a row, but they’ve been playing the bottom of the Pac 12 conference unlike Utah. The Cardinal’s two toughest games have been against Arizona who they beat by 3 and Oregon who they lost by 17. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and Utah is in a desperate situation here. Bet against the public and play on Utah here. |
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01-13-21 | Blues v. Avalanche -134 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -134 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
#050 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado -135 over St Louis, Wed at 10:30 PM ET -If not for injuries last year both in the regular season and post-season, the Avalanche were already built to win a Stanley Cup and would have had a great chance in doing so. Now the Avalanche have added a couple more pieces heading into this season and the sky is the limit with this team. Colorado is on home ice now and facing a Blues club that lost a couple key contributors from last season's team. Additionally, goalie Jordan Binnington was great in home games last season but had a 3.10 GAA on the road last season. Binnington is likely to struggle with a Colorado club that scored 3.37 goals per game last season to rang among the best in the league. The Avalanche also allowed an average of only 2.71 goals per game to also rank among the best in the league. The Blues could take awhile to jell early this season with their former captain, Pietrangelo, now with the Golden Knights in Vegas. On the other hand, this Avs team is on a mission after falling short in last year's post-season due to the injury bug. The Avalanche are on a mission for the Stanley Cup and will want to make a statement on opening night for sure. 10* COLORADO |
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01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets UNDER 220 | Top | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - An average NBA game this season finishes with 222.8 points per game this season. This number is obviously slightly lower than that but our analytics tell us this game won’t be ‘average’. These two teams know how to play defense with both ranking in the top 10 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Mavs are giving up just 106PPG on the season, Charlotte allows just 108PPG. The Mavericks are the 6th slowest paced team in the NBA at 98.2 possessions per game, Charlotte is the 10th slowest at 99.8 possessions. When it comes to offensive efficiency ratings both rate in the bottom half of the NBA with Dallas checking in at 17th, Charlotte is 12th. In their last five games both teams have put the clamps down defensively allowing 42% shooting by opponents which is significantly better than league average of 46%. Combined these two teams have stayed Under the number 14 of twenty games. The bet here is Under. |
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01-13-21 | NC State +4.5 v. Florida State | Top | 73-105 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
#661 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +4.5 over Florida State, Wed at 6:30 PM ET - We think this NC State team is undervalued. They are 6-3 on the season but definitely better than their record. This team has only been at 100% for a few games this season as starters Hayes and Funderburk (now coming off bench) have missed a few key games. The Wolfpack are coming off 2 straight losses @ Clemson in OT and at home vs an underrated Miami team in tight game over the weekend. The Canes shot the lights out over the weekend hitting nearly 50% of their shots with NC State hitting only 38% yet the game went to the wire. Because of Covid issues, Florida State hasn’t played in over 2 weeks. Their last game was a 10 point loss @ Clemson on December 29th. Tough to not play a game for that long and come back at an optimum level. Despite their 6-3 record, the Wolfpack are +12 PPG on the season while the 5-2 Seminoles are +8 PPG with a very similar strength of schedule. FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton was blunt about the interruption, "In practice we very seldom, ever, ever have a starting lineup together. We never practice who starts together. We practice different lineups and different groups of guys every day. ... Because we have different mixtures. Everybody's got to blend in." FSU won both games last year in tight fashion with margins of 5 & 6 points giving a little extra motivation to the Wolfpack. We think NC State has a great shot to win this one and we’re getting a decent cushion with the pointspread here. |
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01-12-21 | Nuggets v. Nets +1 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets are off back-to-back losses and look to bounce back at home over Denver. Brooklyn had to play a few games without Kevin Durant who was in Covid protocols, then were without Kyrie Irving for a few games. No Irving here but they do have KD who scored 36-points in their most recent home loss to OKC. Brooklyn is currently in elite company in the NBA with a top 11 efficiency rating in both offense and defense with only the Bucks as the other team that can make that claim. Denver has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league, but their defense ranks near the bottom on the NBA at 25th in defensive efficiency. Denver is 4-1 SU their last five games but two of those wins came over a bad Minnesota team, Dallas and Philly were both short-handed with Covid issues and the Knicks are really struggling right now. The current perception is the Nuggets are playing well but that’s a byproduct of weak competition. The Nets are off a pair of losses and motivated at home. Nuggets have not covered as a dog in four straight. |
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01-12-21 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +2 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +2 over Duke, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Duke has been shaky at best all season long with a 6-2 record and their only top 100 win coming vs Notre Dame. The Devils have played only one road game all season and that was over 3 weeks ago. They have played only 2 games since December 16th due to some covid issues. In their 2 games since December 16th they had to come from 16 points down at home to beat a 2-9 Boston College team by 1 points. Duke also beat Wake Forest at home by 11 but the game was much closer than that as the game was tied midway through the 2nd half and they didn’t take their first 10+ point lead until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. This is a very young team that isn’t built to win games on the road. They rarely get to the FT line (13% of their points from the line – 327th nationally) and they’re poor at defending the arc. Va Tech is 9-2 on the season and their only loss since December 8th was a 2 point loss @ Louisville. They are very solid 3-point shooting team hitting 36% which matches up very nicely vs this Duke defense. The Hokies have covered 5 of their last 6 and remain very underrated in our opinion. This Duke team is nowhere near as good as their teams yet they are still getting the respect because of their name. They are just 1-6 ATS their last 7 games and we’re getting the better team at home around a pick-em here. Take Virginia Tech. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 75 | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
#499/500 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 75 Points – Ohio State vs Alabama, Monday at 8 PM ET - This is the highest total ever set in a National Championship game and we think it’s too high. The previous high total set by the oddsmakers in this game was back in 2014/15 season when Ohio State faced Oregon with the number set at 72. The two teams combined to score 62 points staying under by 10 full points. The average total scored in the 6 FBS National Championship games is 64.8 points. We understand why this total is set so high because the public likes to bet overs and focus on offenses. These are two of the best offenses in the country. However keep in mind the defenses in these games will be among the best each offense has seen this year as well. Last week was the first time in their last 8 games that Bama faced a defense ranked inside the top 47. Notre Dame was ranked 21st in total defense and held the Tide to 31 points on 437 total yards both well below their averages. Prior to last week’s game vs Clemson, the Buckeyes had faced 2 top 30 defenses this season and scored 22 & 38 points in those games for an average of 30 PPG. That’s not getting it done here with the total set as high as it is. OSU played the perfect game on offense last year. One Big 10 coach said he’d never seen QB Fields play a better game in his career. Can he duplicate that vs Bama with injured ribs and Saban watching the film and having extra time to get ready? We don’t think so. Bama’s offense is great but we expect OSU to try and run the ball and keep them off the field here. Funny to say, but OSU has to slow this game down to have a decent shot to win. If they can do that, we think they can, it’s going to be very tough to hit this total. This is the highest total for BOTH of these teams this season. OSU has not had a total in the 70’s this year. Bama has had a few in the 70’s including their game vs Florida which was set at 74 and their game vs Ole Miss which was set at 74. Those numbers alone tell us we’re getting value on the under here as Florida’s offense is absolutely on par with OSU’s offense however the Buckeye defense is much better than the Gators. The Ole Miss offense is one of the tops in the country (3rd nationally) but their defense is atrocious. All it takes is one bad quarter or a few long, time eating drives in this game and the Under will be looking very good. Take the UNDER here. |
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01-11-21 | Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Loyola Chicago -6.5 over Indiana State, 7PM ET - Loyola Chicago was thrown a “Covid-curveball” when they were scheduled to play Missouri Valley leader Drake this past weekend but instead faced Indiana State. Because of a Covid outbreak on Drakes roster the Ramblers were instead forced to change last minute and travel to play Indiana State. In an obvious let down situation Loyola lost to the Sycamores by 5-points with the big difference in the game being a +12 margin of made free throws for Indiana State. Loyola was projected to be one of the best teams in the MVC this season while Indiana State was expected to finish near the bottom. In fact, the Ramblers rate higher in our power ratings than undefeated Drake, who beat Indiana State on their home court by 18 and 7-points. Prior to the upset in the game Sunday to Indiana State, the Ramblers two previous losses were to quality foes Richmond and Wisconsin. Loyola is the most efficient offense in the Missouri Valley and 2nd in defensive efficiency. Indiana State is the 4th worst in OEFF, 6th worst in DEFF. The Ramblers get payback here after the upset Sunday. |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -111 | 74 h 3 m | Show |
#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -5.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers are a perennial playoff team having made the post-season in 8 of Mike Tomlin’s 14 years as head coach. They know what the playoffs are all about. That gives them a big advantage here over a Cleveland team that is in the post-season for the first time in 18 years. The playoffs are a different animal. That’s why inexperienced QB’s tend to struggle at this time of year. In fact, QB’s making their first playoff appearance (Mayfield) are 14-36 ATS. It’s just really tough to prepare for something you don’t know or you’ve never been a part of. These two met last week in Cleveland and the Browns were in a must win and still barely won the game 24-22. That was with Pittsburgh sitting QB Roethlisberger and a number of other starters including most of their key defensive players. Pittsburgh STILL outgained Cleveland for the game and on a YPP basis with Mason Rudolph at QB. Their other meeting this year when both teams were at full strength, the Steelers won 38-7. Not only is Cleveland new to this experience, they’ve been dealing with plenty of distractions this week. Their facilities have been closed all week due to Covid. They’ve been preparing for this game virtually. On top of that their head coach Stefanski, who’s led their resurgent offense, won’t be at this game due to Covid. A number of players are potentially out as well for the same reason. A less than ideal situation leading into a playoff game to say least. Cleveland’s offense doesn’t match up well in this game. The Steelers have the #1 defense in the league when it comes to pressuring the QB. Mayfield stinks when under pressure (43% completion rate). Pitt sacked him 8 times in the 2 meeting and in the game @ Pittsburgh they held Mayfield to his lowest QBR of the season. The Browns are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential on the season and they have lost 17 straight here in Pittsburgh. We’ll lay it and say the Steelers win by double digits. |
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01-10-21 | Minnesota v. Iowa UNDER 164 | Top | 71-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
#825/826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 164 Points – Minnesota @ Iowa, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago and Minnesota pulled the upset 102-95 in OT. The total on that high scoring affair was set at 165 and even with the huge numbers put up in that game, this total is set lower. Hmmm. A closer look reveals that these teams ended regulation at 166 and it took a LOT of crazy stuff happening late in the game to get to that number. The halftime score was 38-33 so on pace for 142. The two teams combined to score 24 points in the last 3+ minutes and 15 points in the last minute of play alone. That game was sitting at 151, looking like an easy under, with 60 seconds remaining. On top of all that, the 2 teams combined to make 52 of their 67 FT attempts in the game (77.6%). The offensive efficiency numbers in that game were through the roof with Minnesota averaging 1.32 points per possession & Iowa 1.23. You can bet both coaches were focused on improving their defense here in the 2nd meeting. With Iowa right around a 10 point favorite, the projected score here is right around 87-77. Minnesota has played 3 road games in Big 10 play and scored 57, 59, and 65 points. They are shooting just 30% from the field in road games. Iowa might have to get to 90 for this to have any chance. While they did that in abundance before conference play, they haven’t reached 90 a single time (in regulation) since Big 10 play began. UNDER is the value play here. |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
#145/146 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Tampa Bay @ Washington - Many will look at Tampa’s recent surge on offense a feel this team is peaking on that side of the ball. The Bucs have scored 26, 31, 44, and 47 points over the last month. However, those numbers were put up vs Atlanta (twice), Minnesota, and Detroit, three defenses ranked 27th or lower in total defense AND yards per play defense. Now they face a Washington defense that will be as good as they’ve seen this season (2nd in the NFL in total defense and YPP defense). It’s also a defense that can put serious pressure on opposing QB’s (4th in QB pressure rate) which is bad news for the immobile, aging Tom Brady. He completes just 43% of his passes when under pressure and ranks 31st in the NFL in QBR. We don’t expect Brady to light it up here. On the other side, Washington obviously really struggles on offense. They only average 20.9 PPG and some of their higher scoring efforts came when QB Alex Smith was healthy. Right now he’s not. His arm strength is down this season and with his bad calf he really struggles to move around. Last week vs a poor Philadelphia defense, without their top player (Fletcher Cox), in a must win game they only were able to score 20 on just 4.0 YPP. They’ve scored 20 or less in 6 straight games and we don’t think they get there in this one. They face one of the top defenses in the NFL as Tampa ranking 6th in both total and YPP defense. Washington has faced 3 top 10 defenses this year and they score a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s in those 3 games. We tend to look for UNDERS in the playoffs as everything gets ramped up a notch. In games played outdoors the UNDERS have really cashed nicely in the Wildcard round going 81-60-4 the last 145 games. Looks like cold weather in DC on Saturday night and we like this one to stay UNDER the total. |
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01-09-21 | Suns v. Pacers -3 | Top | 125-117 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3 over Phoenix Suns, 7 PM ET - Two of the best defenses square off here when Phoenix rolls into Indianapolis for a game against the Pacers. Indiana has a scheduling advantage with the Suns come off a game last night in Detroit while the Pacers are rested. This will also be the Suns 3rd game in four days. Early on the Suns led the league in defensive efficiency but they’ve been steadily dropping in that category as the season has gone on. Indiana on the other hand has not and they can defend every position with the 7th best defensive efficiency in the NBA. The Pacers can also shoot it with the 2nd best overall FG% offense in the NBA at 49%. Indiana is 3-0-1 ATS their last four home games against a team with a winning road record and they catch the Suns in a favorable situation. |
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01-09-21 | Virginia v. Boston College OVER 131 | Top | 61-49 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 131 Virginia at Boston College, 2PM ET Granted it’s hard to play Over on a Cavaliers game but we’ll do it here with the value in the number. Virginia is one of THE slowest paced teams in college basketball but they have one of the best offensive efficiency ratings at 1.111 points per possession. The Cavs have put up 66 and 70 points in their last two games against Notre Dame and Wake Forest and both ended with 123 total points and 131. Those two teams don’t play anywhere near as fast as Boston College who is 45th in tempo and 84th in average possession length. The Eagles are also 82nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and average 1.066PPP. Virginia will score here too against a BC defense that is last in the ACC in defensive efficiency. The lowest total points scored in a BC game this year is 133 in Game 2 against Rhode Island. The Eagles have totaled 140 or more in 8 straight games. Bet this one Over! |
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01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks continue to compete, especially on the defensive end of the court which has been a trademark of head coach Tom Thibodeau wherever he’s been. It’s early in the season but the Knicks are 8th in defensive efficiency this season allowing just 1.062-points per possession. Last season the Knicks were 23rd in DEFF, giving up 1.130PPP. New York is holding foes to under .30% shooting from beyond the arc and below 44% from the field which both rank in the top 4 of the NBA. Oklahoma City has trouble scoring the way it is with the 30th ranked offense in terms of scoring this season at 102PPG. The Thunder don’t shoot well at 43.8% overall and 33% from the 3-point line. OKC is last in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.007PPP. Oklahoma City has the 2nd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -8.7PPG. The Knicks have only played three home games but are 2-1 SU with impressive wins over the Bucks and Jazz and the lone loss against an elite 76ers team. The Thunder are coming off a road win over the Pelicans, but New Orleans is struggling right now so we’re not impressed. New York continue to be undervalued and we’ll buy low here. |
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01-08-21 | Youngstown State v. Wright State -11.5 | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Wright State -11.5 over Youngstown State, 7 PM ET - We feel Wright State is the best team in the Horizon conference this season, yet they are looking up at Illinois Chicago and Cleveland State in the standings. Cleveland State is 6-0 in league play but have played three of the worst teams in the league in IUPUI, IPFW and this same Youngstown State team that Wright State plays today. Cleveland State beat this Youngstown State team by 18 and 7-points earlier this season. Wright State had ripped off 7 wins in a row before an upset loss to Oakland their last time out. After beating Oakland, the night before by 29, the Raiders lost by 10 as an 11-point chalk. We’ve said it a million times and will say it again, bet good teams off bad losses! Wright State has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 64th and an AEO of 116th. Youngstown State is 2-4 in league play and coming off a pair of home games against UW Green Bay who might be the worst team in the Horizon. YSU beat UWGB in the first meeting by 7, then lost the next day by 10 in OT. That’s the same UWGB team Wright State beat by 14 and 13. Wright State has the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the Horizon and will exploit a Penguins team that is last in the conference in defensive efficiency allowing 1.183 points per possession. The key here is whether or not Wright State will be motivated against this lesser opponent and we know they will be off a loss in their last game AND a loss to YSU last year in the final meeting of the season. |
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01-07-21 | Murray State -2.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Murray State -2.5 over Eastern Illinois, 8:30 PM ET - Murray State was picked as one of the contenders in the Ohio Valley Conference this year but have gotten off to a 1-3 start. Two of those losses came against Austin Peay and Belmont who are currently two of the top five teams in the OVC. The most recent loss for the Racers came to Morehead State at home which broke a 25-game winning streak on their home court. Eastern Illinois is coming off a win at home which extended their home record to 3-0 this season. Closer inspection though shows those three wins came against weak competition that are not on the level as Murray State. The Panthers most recent win came by 6-points over Tennessee Tech who is one of the worst teams in the OVC. EIU struggles to defend with an efficiency rating of 220th allowing 1.011 points per possession. Their EFG% defense is also horrendous ranking 266th. The Panthers offense isn’t much better ranking 152nd in OEFF at less than 1-point per possession. The Racers are similar to the Panthers in terms of offensive efficiency but much better on the defensive end of the floor allowing .975PPP (135th). The Racers have won 41 out of their 50 regular season meetings and 19 of 27 games at Lantz Arena. Up until their loss there at the end of last season, the Racers had won five in a row and 10 of the last 12 on this court. The Racers bounce back here. |
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01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35 PM ET - This is a favorable schedule situation for the Nets as the 76ers played last night making this the back end of consecutive nights. This is also the Sixers 3rd game in four nights. The Sixers have enjoyed some “home cooking” this season with just 3 road games thus far where they are 2-1 SU. Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant here, but the Nets didn’t need him in a blowout the other night of the Jazz. The Nets have some solid depth which is why they don’t need to rely solely on their two SuperStars. Philly holds the advantage on the defensive end of the court but the gap between these two teams in terms of defensive efficiency isn’t great. The Nets though enjoy a definite advantage offensively with the 5th best offensive efficiency number compared to Philadelphia’s 15th (or league average). Philly is just 15-25-1 ATS as a road favorite their last 41 games and fatigue becomes a factor tonight. |
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01-06-21 | Raptors v. Suns -3 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Toronto Raptors, 9 PM ET - We don’t have a reason to believe in the Raptors turning things around anytime soon as rumors are swirling about chemistry issues within the team. Toronto has gotten off to a 1-5 SU start with their only win coming at home against the Knicks. They didn’t show up for a HUGE game against Boston the other night at home when the Celtics looked like a MASH unit and still lost by 12-points. In three road games the Raptors have been beaten by 4 at New Orleans, 7 at Philly and 5 at San Antonio. If you don’t think the Suns are for real, think again. Phoenix has gotten off to a 5-2 start with impressive home wins on their resume over Dallas and New Orleans. The Suns are coming off a home loss which will have them focused and motivated here. Phoenix is doing it with the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.045 points per possession and an offense that is ranked 10th overall in offensive efficiency. Toronto is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA right now (29th in OEFF) and their defense isn’t what it was a year ago with Ibaka and Gasol now in L.A. The numbers haven’t caught up with the Raptors yet so this is a bargain price to play against them. |
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01-06-21 | Rhode Island v. Richmond UNDER 145 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 145 Rhode Island @ Richmond, 6PM ET Both teams are average in pace of play or tempo but both are very good when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Spiders have played a very tough schedule yet allow just .947 points per possession which is 61st in the country. Rhode Island is top 100 in defensive efficiency allowing just .908PPP and they hold foes to a miniscule 40% shooting which is 18th best in the nation. Rhode Island is coming off a 162 total point game against St Joes but that was in overtime and the two teams had just 140 total points at the end of regulation. Prior to that game the Rams had totaled less than this number in five straight games. Richmond just played a St Bonaventure team that is similar to Rhode Island and those two teams combined for 135 total points. Atlantic 10 conference games this season are averaging just 134.7PPG, last year that average was 135.6PPG. In their one season clash last season these two teams combined for 130 total points. According to our model this total is set higher than it should be and the value is on the UNDER. |
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01-05-21 | Connecticut v. Marquette -124 | Top | 65-54 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: 636 Marquette money line -124 over Connecticut, 9 PM ET - Marquette has a solid advantage here with more game experience this season as they have 11 games under their belts compared to just 5 for UConn. Not too mention, two of the Huskies games were against Central Connecticut and Hartford. The Golden Eagles on the other hand have played a brutal schedule with games against Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, UCLA, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier and Villanova who all rank in our top 40 power rankings. This is also going to be the Huskies first road game of the season. Despite facing that difficult schedule, Marquette has an adjusted efficiency rating of 31st on offense and 67th on defense. UConn has some very inflated statistics right now but that’s a reflection of who they’ve played. Both have played Creighton this season with Marquette winning on the road and Connecticut losing at home to the Blue Jays. The Golden Eagles have lost two straight at home and won’t lose a third on Tuesday. |
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01-05-21 | Jazz v. Nets UNDER 231.5 | Top | 96-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: 501/502 #UNDER 231.5 Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:35 PM ET - The Nets were already without a starter and one of their leading scorers in Dinwiddie and now must endure without Kevin Durant who is out after testing positive for Covid. The Nets have improved tremendously on the defensive end of the court allowing just 1.083 points per possession which is 13th best in the NBA. Utah is better yet, ranking 11th in DEFF allowing 1.075PPP. Brooklyn is one of the faster paced teams in the NBA ranking 7th BUT that’s a byproduct of playing games against Golden State, Washington, Atlanta twice and Charlotte who are all ranked in the top half of the league in pace of play. Now Utah comes to town who is the 24th slowest paced team in the league. Both teams shoot slightly better than league average, but both are much better in defensive FG% than the league norm. The Jazz are coming off their highest scoring game of the season a 130-point output against the Spurs where they shot the lights out. Those results have driven this line up and gives us tremendous value with the UNDER! |
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01-04-21 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -8 over Colorado State, 9 PM ET - San Diego State was just favored by 9-points at home against Colorado State and lost after leading by 26-points in the game. It was the largest comeback win in D1 this season and also in the last ten seasons. Now we are getting a better number with a highly motivated Aztecs team with payback on their minds. The Rams lost by 20-points to Saint Mary’s earlier this season and we have San Diego State rated significantly higher. Colorado State has played a significantly weaker schedule than SDSU and yet the Aztecs rate exponentially better in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Last season on this same court San Diego State was favored by 13-points against CSU, then this year 9-points and now we have a bargain price in this rematch. The Aztecs are 10-2 SU off a loss their last twelve and have won by an average of 15PPG. San Diego has enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage with a 32-6 SU record since 2018 with a +15.1PPG positive differential. Payback here in this quick turnaround. |
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01-04-21 | Thunder v. Heat -8 | Top | 90-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -8 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - This won’t be the last time we play against the Thunder as we just don’t feel they are going to be very good this season. The Thunder do have two road wins this season at Charlotte and Saturday in Orlando, but this is not a great spot for them. Miami is coming off a horrible offensive showing and loss in Dallas and will look to bounce back with a big home win Monday. Miami has been remarkable off a loss recently with a 28-7 SU run, +7.2PPG. The Heat were 25-7 SU last year at home with an average winning margin of +9.3PPG which was the third best differential in the NBA. The Heat have covered four straight at home as a favorite while Thunder 1-5 ATS last six on the road against a team with a winning record. |
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01-03-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +1 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #840 Minnesota +1 over Ohio State, 5:30 PM ET - Good spot to play on the Gophers here as they are off a loss at Wisconsin and back at home where they are 34-8 SU since 2018. Minnesota has also won those games since 2018 by an average of 10.7PPG. The Gophers are also 19-11 SU when coming off a loss their last 30. Minnesota has played the tougher schedule than Ohio State who we feel is overrated and played a weaker schedule. The Gophers two losses this season came at two top ranked venues in Illinois and Wisconsin. Between those two losses the Gophers beat three quality foes in Saint Louis, Iowa and Michigan State. Minnesota is 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State has a pair of losses on their resume too, at Purdue and at Northwestern. The Buckeyes best win this season was at home against Rutgers. OSU has better efficiency rating but that is a byproduct of a weaker schedule. Minnesota has beaten this team two straight times and did so rather handily. Great spot to bet them here. |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
#127/128 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Seattle @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Seattle’s defense has kicked it into gear over the last 6 weeks holding their opponents to just 13.7 PPG during that stretch. The UNDER has now cashed 7 straight weeks for Seattle. Last week they held a very good LA Rams offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in total YPG, to just 9 points. They’ve run the ball much more often taking some of the pressure off of Russell Wilson’s shoulders. He’s only averaged 206 YPG passing over this last 6 outings. If you throw out their 40 point effort vs the Jets a week after NY blew a potential win on the last play of the game, Seattle is averaging just 21 PPG over their last 7. San Francisco’s offense has been handcuffed ever since losing Garoppolo at QB. They have scored 24 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Niners topped Arizona 20-12 last week with their defense holding the Cards to their lowest point total of the season and a full 2 TD’s below their season average. While Seattle’s defense has been red hot the Niner stop unit has been among the best in the NFL all season. They rank in the top 10 in YPG, YPP, YPC and yards per pass attempt allowed. Their defense ranks 6th in the NFL in DVOA (Football Outsiders) and the Seahawks are 16th in the same category after being near the bottom of the league for much of the early part of the season. These are 2 of the slower offenses in the NFL ranking 22nd and 24th seconds per play and they obviously know each other very well. Our projections have this one tabbed for the lower 40’s and with the current number at 46, we like the UNDER here. |
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01-03-21 | Raiders v. Broncos +3 | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Raiders should be flat as a pancake here having been eliminated from the playoffs in excruciating fashion last weekend. They opted not to score a TD (took a knee at the 1 yard line) in order to run clock and kick what looked like the game winning FG vs Miami with just 18 seconds remaining. The Fins however moved the ball into FG range in one play (Fitzpatrick long pass + personal foul penalty) and kicked a FG to win as time expired. Devasting loss for Vegas and now they head on the road in a meaningless game. Denver has a poor home record (2-5 SU) but they’ve played a brutally tough home slate (KC, Buffalo, New Orleans, Miami, Tampa Bay, Tennessee). Their most recent game they were creamed by Buffalo who is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. We expect them to play well here to atone for that poor performance. We were very impressed with the way the Broncos bounced back last week after that loss giving the Chargers all they could handle on the road. Denver lost 19-16 but outgained LA by 80 yards, had 7 more first downs, and topped them on the ground 133 to 89. If not for a number of dropped passes, including a few big plays and one that would have been a TD, the Broncos would have won the game. They are still playing hard and competing which is a good sign here as we don’t expect Vegas to do the same. The Raiders beat up on Denver earlier this year 37-12 but the score was a bit deceiving as the yardage was near even but the Broncs had 5 turnovers. Vegas is in a freefall. They were right square in the middle of playoff contention in mid November but have now lost 5 of their last 6 and been outgained and outrushed in 5 of those 6. Their offensive line is really banged up (starting all pro OT Brown is out) and RB Jacobs is hurting as well (only 13 carries vs Miami). Denver has a big edge defensively ranking 14th DVOA on Football Outsiders with Vegas ranking 28th. The leaky Raider defense has given up an average of 34 PPG over their last 6. Denver was +6 at home vs Buffalo, +7 vs KC, +3.5 vs Tennessee, +6 vs Tampa, and +4 vs Miami, all playoff teams. Now they are in the same range (+3 but dropping to +2.5) vs a non-playoff Raider team that very well might have packed it in for the season. Take Denver here. |
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01-02-21 | Oral Roberts v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 152.5 | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 152.5 Oral Roberts @ Nebraska Omaha, 5 PM ET - The Summit League Conference was the most efficient offensive conference in college hoops a year ago and the 4th fastest. As a whole, the conference also had the #1 ranked effective FG% at 52.7%. Oral Roberts was the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.154 points per possession, Nebraska Omaha was 5th at 1.076PPP. Defensively though these two were two of the three worst in the Summit and gave points up in bunches. NEOM has given up 82 or more points in 5 of their last seven games while Oral Roberts has given up 79 or more in all five games against quality opponents they've faced this season. The kicker here is that both teams want to play fast. The Golden Eagles are the 57th fastest paced team in college per adjusted tempo while Nebraska Omaha is 63rd. Considering how bad each team's defenses are and how fast they want to play this game should get to 159 or more. |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
#496 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Big 12 has shown themselves very well thus far with Oklahoma rolling over Florida, Oklahoma State topping Miami, and Texas crushing Colorado (WVU won as well). The Pac 12 has had just one game and that was the blowout we just mentioned. The Buffs were a near perfect 4-1 in Pac 12 play this year and they took on a depleted Texas team, with a number of starters opted out, in the Alamo Bowl and lost 55-23. Iowa State played those teams (Texas & Oklahoma) to the wire this year beating OU by 7 and Texas by 3 in the regular season and then losing to OU by 6 in the Big 12 Championship game. Their only other Big 12 loss this season was by a FG to Oklahoma State. Thus, there 2 conference losses came against bowl teams who both won their bowl games (OU in blowout fashion) by a combined 9 points (they did lose to another bowl team UL Lafayette in the season opener way back in early Sept). Their 8 Big 12 wins came by an average of +18.3 PPG. They are rolling on both sides of the ball right now. On offense the Cyclones have put up at least 435 yards of total offense in 5 of their last 6 games. They actually outgained Oklahoma in their Conference Championship loss but had 3 turnovers. They have also averaged 37 PPG during that stretch. On defense they’ve held their last 6 opponents to an average of just 17.6 PPG. While ISU was obviously disappointed to lose in the Big 12 Championship game, we’re hearing they are thrilled to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, which is the most prestigious bowl this program has ever played in. Oregon was supposed to be the top team in the weak Pac 12 this year but that wasn’t the case. They did beat USC in the Pac 12 Championship game but the Ducks weren’t even supposed to be in that game. They backed in when Washington, the Pac 12 North Champs, weren’t able to field enough players due to a covid outbreak. Even though they beat the Trojans to win the conference, Oregon was outgained by 115 yards in that game and scored their first 2 TD’s on drives of 9 and 32 yards following USC turnovers. Two of their other three wins were vs teams that finished the season below .500. Their 2 losses were vs Oregon State (finished with a 2-5 record) and California (finished with a 1-4 record). Oregon played a weak schedule and their season stats weren’t overly impressive with a +20 YPG differential. Compare that to Iowa State, who played a much tougher schedule, and had a YPG differential of +97. ISU is better in the trenches running the ball for 192 YPG while allowing only 105 on the ground. The Cyclones are also better at the key position on the field, quarterback. ISU QB Purdy is finishing up his 3rd year as the starter and has thrown for nearly 9,000 yards and 61 TD’s. Oregon starter Shough is fairly inexperienced as this is his first year as a starter and he’s not a great passer. We also like the coaching match up here as ISU’s Campbell is FAR superior to the Ducks Cristobal. We like Iowa State to win this game by double digits. |
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01-01-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets –4.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Love the scheduling dynamics to play on Denver here and against Phoenix. The Suns have gotten off to a fantastic start this season at 4-1 and have picked up where they left off last season in the Bubble with an 8-0 run. But this is not an ideal situation for them as they played last night and are playing their 3rd game in four days. Not to mention they are playing in the higher altitude of Denver tonight which is never a good thing for unrested teams. The Nuggets meanwhile are home, rested AND coming off a loss in their previous game. Denver is off to a very disappointing 1-3 start this season, 2 of those losses coming at home. The Nuggets are 65-20 SU their last 85 home games with an average margin of victory of +8PPG. When facing an opponent that is unrested the Nuggets are 28-15 SU their last 43. Off a loss Denver is 44-28 their last 72 games. Denver has beaten this Suns team 5 straight and make it six in a row here. |
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01-01-21 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 231.5 | Top | 96-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 231.5 Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - Yes, the number on this game is extremely high compared to an average NBA game but these two teams don’t play at an average pace. The Bulls are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 108.4 possessions per game. The Bucks prefer to play uptempo also with the 9th fastest pace in the league at 103.4 possessions per game. Milwaukee is the second highest scoring team in the league at 124.2PPG while Chicago is 12th at 113.3PPG. The Bulls have been especially bad defensively allowing 123PPG which is 28th in the NBA. The Bucks haven’t been good on that end of the floor ranking 17th in points allowed per game at 113.4PPG. Against a similar team to the Bulls, Golden State, the Bucks put up 138 points. The Bulls are coming off a 263-point total with Washington last night and this game could get to a number in the 240’s rather easily. Bucks 4-1 Over their last five games on 1 day rest. Bulls 4-0 Over on no rest. Bet Over here. |
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01-01-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas-Little Rock -4 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Arkansas Little Rock -4 over Texas Arlington, 5 PM ET - Sun Belt action tips off for both teams with UALR looking to repeat as Champions after a 15-5 conference record a year ago. The Trojans return their 7 top scorers from a year ago but have largely underachieved this season with 3 straight spread losses. But that recent trend has affected the number and we get the opportunity to buy low with UALR. In their last game the Trojans lost to Missouri State as they dressed just 8 players and had to finish the game with 4 on the floor. The players that missed that game on Dec 21 because of Covid protocols are expected back here. The Trojans have beaten UTA four straight times on this floor. Arlington returns some sophomores and juniors to this team and have some juco transplants, but they were still 7th in the Sun Belt a year ago. UTA is on a 3-game winning streak but they came against D2 schools. Arkansas Little Rock will be properly motivated here to start conference play and will hold a decisive advantage on the boards with a big front line going against a smaller lineup for UTA. |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia OVER 51 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
#327/328 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Cincinnati vs Georgia, Friday at 12 PM ET - This total has crept up from 49.5 to 51 points and we still think it’s much too low. The Georgia offense has been rolling since switching QB’s to former USC starter JT Daniels. Since taking the reigns on November 21st, the UGA offense led by Daniels, has scored 31, 45, and 49 points. They’ve also averaged 500 YPG of total offense in those 3 games after averaging 382 YPG prior to making the switch at QB. Cincinnati’s defense 13th nationally but that number is drastically inflated in our opinion. The AAC has a few good offenses but the conference definitely isn’t great on that side of the ball. The best offense they faced this year was UCF who put up 33 points. Of the other 8 offenses they faced, one was an FCS opponent, 2 others ranked in the top 41 and the rest were all ranked 57th over lower. In the AAC Championship game they allowed 24 points to a Tulsa team that is ranked 57th in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Cincy is very good ranking in the top 20 nationally in total offense, rush offense, and scoring. The scored at least 36 points in 6 of their 9 games this season. Now they did face some poor defenses, we realize that, however the best defense they faced was Tulsa, one of the better defenses in the country, and they scored 27 in that game and it should have been much more. The Bearcats put up 420 yards in that game and they missed a short FG and were shutout on downs at the Tulsa 5 yard line. They are very balanced offensively and have an experienced dual threat QB Ritter who is a 3 year starter. UGA’s defense also has very good numbers but they were the beneficiary of facing perhaps the easiest offensive schedule in the SEC. The Bulldogs faced just TWO offenses this season ranked inside the top 60 (Florida & Bama) and those teams put up 44 and 41 points respectively. Half of their SEC opponents (4) were ranked 96th or lower in total offense. Cincinnati will be the 3rd best offense this UGA defense has faced this season behind only Alabama and Florida. The Bearcats average just under 40 PPG (39.3) and Georgia averages 33 PPG despite their slow start. Both of these teams have the ability to get to 30 in this game but we don’t even need that to happen. If both reach at least 25 points this is going OVER. This game will have no weather situation as it’s being played in Mercedes Benz domed stadium in Atlanta so a fast track and perfect conditions for the offense. The projected score with UGA a 7-point favorite is 29-22. We like both teams to top their projected point total so we take the OVER in this game. |
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12-31-20 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 219 | Top | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
ASA Play on: UNDER 219 Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - We love the two young rising SUPERSTARS in this game with Devin Booker of Phoenix and Donovan Mitchell of Utah. The Suns made some offseason moves in bringing in vets Chris Paul and Jae Crowder who gives them toughness and a defensive mindset. It’s showed early on with Phoenix going Under in all four games this season. The Suns are 2nd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .992PPP (last year they were 17th). Phoenix is also one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this year ranking 28th. The Jazz can play some defense too ranking 13th in DEFF which is where they ranked last season. Utah is also the 21st slowest paced team in the league this season at 100.6 possessions per game. The most points scored in a Suns game this year was 216. They have allowed 106 or less in all four games. The Jazz played one higher scoring game against Portland but the Blazers like to play fast, ranking 5th in pace. Both teams are top 8 in points allowed per game this year Under 109. Both are also in the bottom half of the league in 2pt FG% and 3pt %. Bet Under |
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12-31-20 | Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 147 | Top | 68-54 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 147 Nevada @ New Mexico, 9 PM ET - Last season an ‘average’ game in the Mountain West Conference was 144 total points. Nevada was the 3rd fastest paced team in the conference while New Mexico was 2nd. Nevada had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.107 points per possession. New Mexico was slightly below average in the MWC in OEFF at 1.031PPP. When it came to defense the Wolfpack were 5th in defensive efficiency ratings, the Lobos ranked 9th. New Mexico has been extremely fast paced under Paul Weir and typically score well but their numbers this year are skewed after playing a fantastic defensive team in Boise State (twice). Boise has held 5 of seven opponents to less than 60-points, and currently hold foes to under .960 points per possession. Nevada is currently 65th in adjusted tempo this season and will look to run here after a low scoring game against Air Force. Last season the oddsmakers set Totals of 161 and 153 on the two meetings between these two schools. In those games they combined for 162 and 170 total points. The bet here is OVER! |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -9 over Ball State, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - This SJSU team has flown under the radar the entire season. They are a perfect 7-0 and are seeking their first undefeated season since 1939. Just two seasons ago this team was 1-11. They are HIGHLY motivated to close out with an undefeated season and we expect to see the Spartans at their best on Thursday. If they are at their best, this team is much better than Ball State. All 7 of SJSU’s wins this year have come by double digits including a 14 point win over a very good Boise State team in the MWC Championship game. The Spartans outgained the Broncos by 240 yards in that game! For the season they outgained their opponents by more than 100 YPG and by a full 2 yards per play (6.9 YPP offense & 4.9 YPP defense) in the much tougher MWC (compared to the MAC). QB Starkel, who played at both Arkansas & Texas A&M, was a grad transfer who led this offense with over 300 YPG passing. The Spartans have one of the most potent passing attacks in the country which is bad news for a Ball State defense that allowed 296 YPG through the air (119th nationally). The 2 best pass offenses the Cardinals faced this season were Western Michigan & Toledo and those 2 teams put up 275 yards passing & 2 TD’s and 407 yards passing & 3 TD’s in those 2 games respectively. Ball State, on the other hand, relies heavily on their running game (45 carries per game but only 3.9 YPC) and they are facing an SJSU defense that gives up only 3.3 YPC. The 2 best rushing attacks they faced this season were Air Force (2nd nationally) & San Diego State (32nd nationally). They held the Falcons to 206 yards rushing (100 yards below their average) and the Aztecs to 101 yards rushing (99 yards below their average). Ball State ranks 53rd nationally running the ball and they’ll be without, by far, their best RB here (Caleb Huntley) who opted out after rushing for just under 3,000 yards in his career. This Spartan defense did not allow more than 24 points in a game this season and we like them to really slow down this Ball State attack. The Cards already won their “Super Bowl” so to speak by beating Buffalo in the MAC Championship game despite getting outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.5 YPP. Ball State was outgained 6.1 YPP to 5.8 YPP on the season despite playing an easier schedule than San Jose who was +2.0 YPP as we mentioned above. The MAC has been historically bad in bowl games with an 18-35-2 ATS record their last 55 as bowl underdogs. Ball State is also historically bad in bowl games going 0-7 SU lifetime with 5 of those 7 losses coming by at least 9 points. This game is being played out west in Arizona which is a definite positive for San Jose State. The Cardinal players are just happy to get away from the cold and snow in this vacation type game. We’ll lay the points with San Jose State as we expect the Spartans to roll in this game. |
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12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6.5 | Top | 141-145 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET We like to bet on elite teams off a bad loss which is the case in this setting Wednesday as Brooklyn is off a pair of losses and face an unbeaten Hawks team. That 3-0 Atlanta record has kept this line in check, and we will take advantage of a soft number here. The Nets lost in Charlotte two games ago then rested Kyrie and KD in an OT loss to Memphis. The Nets with their pair of “mega-stars” are a team capable of flipping the switch on any given night and in their first two games when motivated they blew out Golden State and Boston. As we mentioned, Atlanta has gotten off to that perfect 3-0 start, but the wins have come against Detroit, Chicago and Memphis who have a combined 2-9 SU record. Yes, the Hawks have improved their roster, but this is still a team that had a negative road differential of minus-13.4PPG during the regulars season a year ago, which was the worst number in the NBA. Brooklyn gets an easy double-digit win here. |
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12-30-20 | Murray State v. Belmont OVER 145.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 145.5 Murray State @ Belmont, 7PM ET These two teams will again be two of the best teams in the Ohio Valley Conference and last season they met three times with Total points scored of: 151, 135 and 160. The game played in Belmont last season had a Total set of 150 but they only managed 135 points. Digging into that game we find the two teams played fast enough, but Murray State had a really poor shooting night at 39% while Belmont hit just 4 of 25 3-pointers. Those numbers were very uncharacteristic of both teams as they were exceptional shooting teams last season, and both were extremely efficient offensively. Belmont will dictate tempo here and want to play fast. The Bruins are a top 100 team in efficiency this season, 58th in adjusted pace and 46th in effective field goal percentage. Murray State has been a little slower than normal this year but will be forced to keep pace with Belmont. The Racers are 108th in OEFF this season and 40th in EFG%. Last season the OVC games averaged 144.5 Total points per game and this contest features two of the best offenses in the league. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest UNDER 52 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 52 Points – Wake Forest vs Wisconsin, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - Wake has played a grand total of ONE game since November 14th. Their most recent game was a 45-21 loss @ Louisville back on Dec 12 and HC Dave Clawson mentioned after the game his team was simply not in game shape after the long break in their schedule. Their up tempo offense, which averages 80 plays per game (8th nationally), only put up 351 yards on 72 plays in that game (4.8 YPP). His offense will have big problems again in this game as they’ve had another 2+ week break and if they weren’t in game shape vs Louisville they surely won’t be here either. On top of that, they are facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks #1 nationally in total defense allowing only 263 YPG. The Badger defense has given up a total of only 94 points in 6 games this season. The only decent defense WF faced this season was Clemson and they put up just 13 points in that game. The other 7 defenses the Demon Deacons faced had an average total defense ranking of just 68th and the highest ranked stop unit they faced besides Clemson was Louisville who closed the season ranked 41st. They’ll have problems scoring points in this game. Don’t expect the Badger offense to light up the scoreboard here either. They scored only 4 TD’s in their final 4 games of the season. You might argue that WF has a poor defense so Wisconsin should get back on track but we’re not buying it. They just played a Minnesota team that was among the worst defenses in the nation in YPP allowed and the WORST in YPC allowed and Wisconsin was able to score only 17 points in regulation. QB Mertz has really struggled with his confidence and it looks as though both of this starting WR’s, Pryor & Davis, will most likely sit here once again. With Wisconsin favored by 7 and a total of 52, the projected final score for this game is in the range of 30-23 or 29-22. Wisconsin is only averaging 10 PPG their last 4. No way they get to 30 in this game. And with Wake facing a top notch defense for the first time since early September, we don’t think they’ll top 20 points. Take the UNDER. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-55 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
#297 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado +8.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - We know Colorado is thrilled to be in the Alamo Bowl. We’re not so sure Texas can say the same. Once again the Longhorns had much higher aspirations and fell short of their goals with a 6-3 record. They blew out a poor KSU team to end the season and might be taking this one lightly or have little interest at all. The Horns have had a number of opt outs for this game including top WR Eagles, starting LT Cosmi, starting C Kerstetter, starting DE Ossai, starting DT Graham, and starting safeties Sterns & Brown. That doesn’t sound like a team that cares all that much about this game. There is still talk about whether HC Herman is the right man for the program after underachieving during his tenure and he now has former players chiming in on his lack of coaching acumen. Just not a great overall situation to close out the season for Texas. The Buffs were a surprise this year under new head coach Dorrell. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and by all indications the players love their new head coach. They won 2 games outright as an underdog and Dorrell has been fantastic as an underdog covering 12 of his last 13 when getting points dating back to his HC days at UCLA. Their only loss this season was vs Utah in their season finale, a game Colorado actually led 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. They outgained and outrushed 4 of their 5 opponents this season. Their offense should thrive here vs a Texas defense that allowed 410 YPG and is without many of their top players as mentioned above. Even in their blowout win over KSU to close out the season, the Horns gave up 448 total yards to a Wildcat offense that ranks 106th in total offense. We’re confident that CU will stay in this game throughout and we’re getting more than a TD as a cushion. Take the points. |
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12-29-20 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 223 | Top | 144-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks were bounced from the Playoffs last season by this Heat team so expect some high emotions in this early season showdown. The recipe the Heat used to beat the Bucks was defense, defense and more defense. If you eliminate the one overtime period they played, Miami held the Bucks to 104PPG in their 5-game playoff series which is 15 points less than their season average. The Heat were able to dictate pace and they prefer a slow tempo (24th in the NBA a year ago in pace). These were also two of the top nine teams in the league in defensive efficiency a year ago so don’t expect many easy opportunities here. Milwaukee just gave up 130 points to the Knicks and will make defense a priority in this contest. The Under is 9-4 the L13 meetings. The bet here is UNDER |
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12-29-20 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 147.5 | Top | 87-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 147.5 Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 7 PM ET - There is some tremendous value in the number here as these two MAC foes met twice last season and the oddsmakers posted Totals of 138.5 on each game. When EMU was the home team, they dictated tempo and the two teams combined for 130 total points. The game at CMU was a little higher scoring with a Total of 143 but that still gets the cash here. The style of play for these teams couldn’t be any different as Central wants to get up and down while Eastern prefers a much slower tempo. In conference games a year ago, Eastern was the slowest team in the MAC and also the worst offensively with a .930 points per possession average in league play. EMU made up for it though with the second-best defensive efficiency number in the MAC. Conversely, Central was the second fastest team in the league but just 8th in OEFF. CMU wasn’t great defensively though ranking 8th in DEFF allowing 1.038PPP. This season Central Michigan has faced another MAC foe in Western Michigan who is very similar to Eastern and those two teams combined for 137 Total points. Our model is projecting 141 total points here which has us on the UNDER. |
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12-28-20 | Rockets v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 9 PM ET - We think the oddsmakers had the correct number when they opened the Nuggets minus 9 here but since public money has forced the line down to the current number. At the end of last season, the Denver Nuggets were being talked about as possible title contenders with Jokic and Murray playing at a very high level. The Nuggets have gotten off to an 0-2 start with an OT loss to Sacramento and then a beatdown by the Clippers who were playing with revenge from last season’s playoffs. Denver was 26-11 SU at home last season before Covid hit with an average point differential of +4.2PPG. This is not the same Houston Rockets team we saw last year. James Harden is back, but for how long? Houston’s next three best players are not on this current trip as Wall, Cousins and Gordon are home in Covid protocols. The Rockets played well in the opener against Portland but are in a bad spot here. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series by 7 or more points. Denver was 23-13 SU off a loss last season and at 0-2 they’ll play with a little more motivation here. Lay it. |
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12-28-20 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 56-81 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State -2.5 over Minnesota, 8 PM ET - Why is Michigan State favored on the road after they just lost to Wisconsin and the Gophers are off an upset win of Iowa? Not only is Minnesota coming off that huge win over the #4 Hawkeyes, but they have a date with the Wisconsin Badgers next. Granted, MSU is still a big-name opponent but they have lost two straight and we guarantee the Gophers have noticed. Michigan State is 64-23 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-11 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency ratings but MSU has a slight advantage offensively and they’ve faced a tougher schedule. Minnesota is 3-2 SU their last five as a home dog but they can’t capture the energy from their home crowd in the current Covid setting. The favorite has covered 7-straight in this series and the Spartans in a desperate situation make it 8 in a row. |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers OVER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54 Points – Tennessee @ Green Bay, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Needless to say we don’t see many stops in this game. Green Bay QB Rodgers should have a field day. He’s facing a Titan defense that is the WORST in the league at pressuring the QB ranking last in sack percentage and last in sacks per game. The Tennessee defense has faced 580 drop backs this season and they have only 14 sacks. That 2.4% sack rate is brutally bad. Their pass defense stinks as well ranking 29th in the NFL in passing YPG allowed. The Titan defense has faced just 3 QB’s this year ranked in the top 10 in QBR and they are still one of the worst pass defenses in the league. In those 3 games vs top notch QB’s they’ve allowed nearly a 70% completion rate and an average of 3 TD passes per game. Rodgers is the best QB they’ve faced and this won’t be pretty. On the other side of the ball, we see a similar situation for the Packer defense. They’ve struggled stopping the run and with Derrick Henry and company ranking 2nd in the NFL in rushing, Tennessee will move the ball on the ground. That opens up the play action for Tannehill and GB’s defense will be on their heels for much of the game here. The Packers have faced 4 teams this season that rank in the top 10 in rushing and they allowed an average of 138 YPG on the ground in those games. The Titans have scored more points than any other team in the NFL this season and Green Bay has scored the 3rd most points. GB has scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 14 games while Tennessee has done the same in 9 of their 14. Both offenses are very efficient as well ranking in the top 5 in yards per point. Not only are both offense at the top of their game, they match up very well vs the opposing defenses as we touched on. Both teams get into the 30’s here and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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12-27-20 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, Sunday 7 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Pelicans here as the Spurs are off a game last night with the Raptors while the Pels were home resting. San Antonio has jumped out to a 2-0 start but now face a Pelicans team off a loss in Miami and rested. The Spurs are 9-13 SU their last 22 when playing without rest. You would think the storied franchise of San Antonio would thrive as an underdog but that is not the case. Since 2018 the Spurs are 25-27-1 ATS as a dog and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.8PPG. New Orleans is an up-and-comer in the West and have several pieces in place to make a strong run at a playoff berth. It starts with Zion Williamson who was on restricted minutes last year but is a full go this season. Add in All-Star Ingram, two great perimeter defensive guards in Bledsoe and Ball and a rim protector in Adams and you have a solid foundation. The play here is New Orleans minus the points. |
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12-27-20 | Rams +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#475 ASA PLAY ON 10* LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking for good teams coming off bad losses and we couldn’t ask for a better spot than taking the Rams a week after losing to the Jets as a 17 point favorite. Over the last decade, there have been 10 teams that were favored by -13 or more, were above .500 at the time, and lost. Those teams bounced back to cover at an 80% rate the following week (8 of 10 covered). The Rams match up very well with the Seahawks beating them 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss during that stretch coming by 1 point. Seattle already has a spot in the playoffs locked up while the Rams do not. The winner of this game has the inside track to the NFC West title and we’ll take the team that’s better on both sides of the ball. LA has a huge edge defensively as they rate as the top defense in the NFL (total defense & YPP defense) and also rank as the #4 DVOA defense on Football Outsiders. Seattle ranks 25th in total defense and 20th in DVOA defense. There has been some chatter about Seattle’s defense improving over the last month which it has if you look at straight numbers. However, their last 4 opponents have been Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Redskins and all 4 of those teams rank 22nd or lower in total offense with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 31st, and 32nd. The fact is Seattle struggled in 3 of those 4 games vs inferior opponents going to the wire in their tight wins over the Eagles and Redskins and in their home loss to the Giants. Their games vs the Giants and Redskins came vs back up QB’s McCoy and Haskins as well. The Rams & Seahawks have played nearly identical schedules being the same division and LA is +97 YPG on the season while Seattle is -6 YPG. LA has been an underdog 3 times and won 2 of those games outright with their lone loss in that spot coming by 3 points @ Buffalo. In their last 3 road games the Rams have outgained the Cardinals by 231 yards, outgained Tampa by 162 yards, and outgained Miami by 326 yards. We’ll take the better team in a must win spot here. |
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12-27-20 | Canisius v. Monmouth -5 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Monmouth -5 over Canisius, 2 PM ET - Great spot to play on Monmouth and fade Canisius in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season these two teams met twice with Monmouth winning by 19 on this floor and 14 at Canisius. It clearly wasn’t a fluke Monmouth won twice considering they shot 49 and 50 percent in the two games and held Canisius to just 40% shooting in both contests. Last season Monmouth was the 3rd most efficient offense in the MAAC and 2nd best in defensive efficiency. Canisius was 7th in OEFF, 8th in DEFF. The Monmouth Hawks just split a pair of games with St Peters who finished second in the conference a year ago. Both games against St Pete’s went down to the wire and were decided by just 2-points. The Golden Griffins of Canisius split a pair of games with Marist to start the season and Marist was 7-23 SU last season and last in the conference. This is a bargain price and we’ll jump on the Hawks! |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders OVER 48 | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – Miami @ Las Vegas, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - With this total set at 47.5 or 48 points, it’s the lowest total set on a Vegas game since November 1st when they had a total of 48 set @ Cleveland in gale warning winds. The Raider defense has been terrible this year especially as of late. For the season they rank 24th or lower in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and PPG allowed (30 PPG). Over their last 5 games Las Vegas is allowing 36 PPG. The Miami offense doesn’t have great numbers, but they’ve been much better over the last month or so. Since Tagovailoa took over as the starter, his first 4 games the Fins averaged only 240 YPG of total offense and his last 3 they have averaged 386 total YPG. They rushed for 250 yards last week vs New England and we expect Miami to have their best offensive output since Tua took over vs the leaky Raider defense. The Miami scoring defense has great numbers. They are #1 in the NFL allowing 18.4 PPG however their overall numbers come nowhere close to matching up with those scoring numbers. They rank 18th in total defense, 22nd in YPP defense, 24th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 26th in yards per rush allowed. Those are NOT the overall numbers of a team that is allowing 18.4 PPG. They’ve been very lucky in that regard. Miami has played the Jets, Broncos, Bengals, and Patriots (all ranked 27th or lower in scoring) 4 of their last 5 games holding 3 of those 4 to 12 points or less which has really helped their overall numbers. Against some of the better offenses they’ve faced this year, Miami has given up 33 (KC), 31 (Buffalo), 31 (Seattle), and 31 (Arizona) points. The Raiders have scored at least 27 points in 6 of their last 7 games and it looks like they’ll get starting QB Carr back for this game. Don’t be surprised if they use both Carr and Mariota in different packages keeping the Miami defense off balance. These two have gone OVER the total each of the last 6 meetings and the Raiders are 7-0-1 to the OVER their last 8 games as a home underdog. OVER is the play. |
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12-26-20 | Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Pacers have enough talent on their roster to be a threat in the East this season, especially with Oladipo back to full strength. The Pacers were just a -7.5-point favorite at home over the Knicks who aren’t much worse than this Bulls team and Indy beat New York by 14. The Bulls lost their season opener to the Hawks by 20, who expect to be better this season, but still aren’t at the Pacers level. Last season the Bulls were 27th in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.067 points per possession while Indiana was 19th at 1.100PPP. Chicago was in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency last season ranking 12th but Indiana was even better yet at 6th. Chicago had a negative point differential of -3.1PPG overall last season which was one of the 8 worst numbers in the league. Indiana beat the Bulls 4 times last season, all by more than this spread and three of which were by 9+ points. Lay the short number with the Pacers. |
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12-26-20 | Oakland v. Detroit UNDER 155 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* UNDER 155 Oakland @ Detroit Mercy, 4PM ET The oddsmakers have set a bad Total on this game and we plan to take advantage of this number. Our math model projects just 147-points in this Horizon League clash. Let’s start with the Horizon League. Last year conference games averaged 143 total points with Oakland and Detroit the 7th and 5th slowest paced teams in the league. Not only that these two teams were average in terms of offensive efficiency in conference action. In comparison, Detroit just played Wright State who was the 2nd fastest team in the conference last season with the highest offensive efficiency rating. In the two games last week Wright State and Detroit combined for 157 and 163 total points. Oakland is coming off a pair of games against Illinois Chicago last week which ended with 163 and 146 total points being scored. The oddsmakers had set Totals of 142 and 141 on those two games and UIC was similar to Detroit last season in terms of tempo. Last season in the two meetings between these two teams the Vegas numbers were 141 and 137 which are significantly lower than the number set this year. The two games last season finished with 141 and 147 total points. Easy call with UNDER here. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -3.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Conference USA has proven to be a dud on the bowls thus far. They are currently 0-4 getting outscored by a whopping 85 points in those 4 games. When the Sun Belt has faced off vs CUSA in the bowl games thus far, the Belt is 2-0 with Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3 & App State beating North Texas 56-28. That’s relevant because we have Georgia State (from the Sun Belt) facing Western Kentucky (from CUSA) in this game. Western Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in college football ranking 120th in total offense, 111th in passing offense, 99th in rushing offense, and 115th in scoring. There’s been some chatter about their offense coming to life in easy wins over Charlotte & FIU, who have a 2-9 combined record, but what looks like a scoring outburst from the Hilltoppers wasn’t so much as they scored 4 defensive TD’s in those 2 games combined. The fact is, this team has scored a grand total of 19 offensive TD’s in 11 games this year. That’s it. They are facing a Georgia State team that averaged 33 PPG on the season and WKY’s highest offensive output the entire season was just 24 points (minus defensive TD’s). While Western Kentucky’s defense has solid numbers on the year, this is a bad match up for them. The strength of their defense is on the back end as they defend the pass very well. Their rush defense allows 166 YPG and they are facing a GSU offense that loves to run (43 carries per game for 190 yards). The Georgia State defensive numbers aren’t great but they really played well down the stretch allowing just 18 PPG over their last 3 games which included match ups with App State (GSU lost 17-13) and Georgia Southern (State won 30-24) who both won their bowl games already in blowout fashion. State is solid vs the run which matches up well with a WKY that likes to run (but isn’t great at it averaging 3.9 YPC) but it not a good passing team. Georgia State has already proven to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt taking App State & Louisiana, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league, to the wire in tight losses and beating Georgia Southern. The only team they weren’t competitive with was Coastal Carolina who is ranked 12th in the country with an 11-0 record. As we mentioned the Sun Belt has walloped CUSA in their 2 meetings thus far and we have no reason to believe Georgia State can’t cover this small number on Saturday. |
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12-25-20 | Nets -2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-95 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, Friday 5PM ET Let’s be up front on this. Our computer analytics don’t have a lot of data on this game considering Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are taking the court together for just the second time this season. We can still accurately predict this game based on both teams’ openers though. With 30+ years’ experience handicapping the NBA we know a good team when we see one. In fact, we predicted the Nets to win it all in 2021. The young Nets played extremely well in the Bubble last season with several breakout players stepping up into bigger roles. Even without Durant and Kyrie this team was going to be a playoff team this season. Brooklyn beat this same Celtics team twice last year without KD or Kyrie. Brooklyn had 20 turnovers in their games against Golden State and still won by 26-points. We expect them to clean that part of their game up here against a Celtics team they would love to send a message to early in the season. Boston is off a HUGE win over the Bucks with Tatum banking in a 3-pointer with .04 seconds left in the game. The Celtics have depth concerns already and will be without Kemba Walker here. Last season the Nets were 15-21 SU on the road with an average road differential of minus -2.9PPG (again without KD, Kyrie). This game will have a little extra meaning for Kyrie (former Celtic) and the Nets who are considered the Celtics “little brother” in the East. The oddsmaker clearly have bought into the Nets as this line is nearly the same as the Bucks number in their first game against Boston. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 51.5 | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
#451/452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51.5 Points – Minnesota @ New Orleans, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - Both of these teams are coming off high scoring games last week and we like to look at the UNDER the following week in this situation if at all possible. We think this sets up nicely for the UNDER while most will look at last week’s results and lean heavily toward the over. When Minnesota clicks on offense, it’s because their running game is rolling. If that happens, it opens up QB Cousins to have a big game with the pressure squarely taken off his back. Last week the Vikings were able to put up 199 yards on the ground vs Chicago and their offense looked very good scoring 27 points. This week they face a Saints defense that only allows 95 YPG on the ground and ranks as the #2 rush defense DVOA on Football Outsiders. In games where Minnesota didn’t top 120 yards rushing, they averaged just 20 PPG which is nearly a full TD below their season average. The Saints were in a shootout last week but that was expected as they were playing the Chiefs. New Orleans lost the game 32-29 but those 29 points came in just 285 total yards of offense. Drew Brees was shaky at best in his return completing only 14 passes (less than 50% completion rate) and he still has problems pushing the ball deep down the field ranking 18th in yards per pass attempt. The New Orleans defense played very well actually despite giving up 32 points they held KC to only 4.5 YPP. The Chiefs were able to speed that game up into a fast paced affair that had 141 offensive plays run. KC ran a ridiculous 91 plays which is 25 above their season average. Thus why they were able to score 32 points on just 4.5 YPP. This one should come in at a much slower pace as New Orleans & Minnesota both are in the top 7 in rushing attempts per game (which slows the game down and speeds up the clock) and they each rank 20th or lower in pace. Prior to last week’s game vs KC the Saints had played in 7 straight games where the combined score was 46 or lower. We see this one playing out similar to last year’s playoff match up in New Orleans where the teams combined for 40 points in regulation (Vikings won 26-20 in OT) and the two combined for only 611 total yards. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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12-25-20 | Marshall v. Buffalo UNDER 55 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 55 Points – Marshall vs Buffalo, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - Buffalo has been a high scoring team all season long. The problem is, they’ve faced a horrible set of defenses this year. The best defense they have faced this season ranks 55th in total defense. Their other 6 opponents all rank 75th or lower in total defense including 2 that rank 110th or lower. The Bulls also have the top rushing attack in the country averaging over 300 YPG. Same situation here. The rush defenses they’ve faced are flat out bad. Three of their opponents rank 121st or lower in rush defense and only one ranks higher than 47th. That is Miami OH who held Buffalo to over 100 yards below their rushing average. Now the Bulls face the best defense, by far, they’ve seen this season. Marshall ranks 3rd nationally in total defense and 2nd in rush defense which matches up perfectly vs this Buffalo offense. The Herd are allowing just 12 PPG this season (1st nationally) and only one team has topped 20 points on this defense. Buffalo will not run wild here. On the other side of the ball Marshall is dealing with some key defections on offense. Their top RB Knox (first team all conference) has opted out for this game. He is a huge part of their offense as he put up nearly 900 yards rushing in their 7 games this season. They run the ball an average of 39 times per game and Knox gets most of those carries. Their starting left tackle has also decided to sit this one out. Marshall was really struggling offensively anyway scoring only 13 points & 500 yards TOTAL in their last 2 games of the season vs Rice & UAB. There is a reason a team that averages 48 PPG on the season (Buffalo) & 30 PPG on the year (Marshall) has their total set at just 54 points. Looks way to easy to take the over here and digging deeper we absolutely the UNDER in this game. |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State +1.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State +1.5 over Wisconsin, Friday, 12:30PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a better “play on” situation with Michigan State in this contest. The Spartans are off a tough road loss at Northwestern and played as poorly as I’ve ever seen a Tom Izzo team play. In fact, Izzo publicly shamed his team after the game for the horrendous performance. Michigan State is 64-22 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-10 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. MSU has been a home underdog JUST 3 times in the last 20 years and you can bet this is a motivating factor. Granted, we can’t ignore the Badgers are 15-6 SU since 2015 as an away favorite but this is not a familiar situation against this level of competition. In fact, the Badgers were favored by 4.5 at Marquette and lost earlier this year. Last season Badgers were a 5-point home underdog to MSU and won 64-63 which makes this line off even more. Prior to last year, the Spartans had won 8 straight in this series. The Michigan State loss to Northwestern doesn’t look as bad now that the Wildcats just won on the road against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has been at home for most of the start of the season and face a really tough road game here. MSU is 76-9 SU their last 85 at home and won those games by an average of 19PPG. Take Michigan State! |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 59.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – Houston vs Hawaii, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET - Houston’s defense isn’t great to begin with as they’ve allowed at least 30 points in all but 2 games this year and now they will be short handed. Their top tackler (LB) and top sack man have both opted out for this game. The 2 teams who did not reach 30 points on Houston this year were Navy, who ranks 121st nationally in scoring and USF who ranks 101st nationally in scoring. Everyone has had their way with this defense. Hawaii’s stop unit isn’t any better. They have allowed 30 or more in every game but 2 as well including a UNLV offense that ranks 117th in scoring offense. Both defenses rank outside the top 20 in total defense allowing more than 400 YPG. Both defenses are also terrible at slowing down or stopping explosive plays each ranking 93rd or lower in defending both pass and rush explosiveness. Both of these offenses will be able to move the ball and score points. Houston’s offense has topped 400 total yards in every game but one this season and that was vs Cincinnati who has a top 15 total defense. The Hawaii offense was a bit more up and down this season, however they were able to score at least 24 points in 6 of their 8 games. We feel they’ll look good here vs a depleted Houston defense that wasn’t good to begin with. Both teams can reach into the 30’s here and we’ll take the OVER. |
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12-23-20 | Illinois -4 v. Penn State | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Illinois -4 at Penn State, 6:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the opportunity to bet on an elite team such as Illinois coming off a loss. The Illini lost last time out at Rutgers by 3-points but were outscored at the free throw line by 14-points. Illinois shot well for the game by hitting 54% from the field, 60% from Downtown. Illinois has the 7th best offensive efficiency rating in college hoops at 1.147 points per possession and rank 37th in defensive efficiency allowing just .922PPP. Penn State is also coming off a loss at Michigan, but they were not expected to win as a 7-point dog. The Nittany Lions also have top 40 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency which is why the line on this game is as low as it is. The two previous times the Illini have been beaten this season they bounced back with blowout wins over Duke and Minnesota. Illinois will get a double-digit win here. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -6 over Louisiana Tech, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET - We can take quite a bit from Monday’s bowl match up between App State & North Texas and apply it to this game. App State dominated that game rushing for over 500 yards in a 56-28 win. What does that have to do with this game? Well Georgia Southern plays in Sun Belt along with App State and La Tech plays in CUSA along with North Texas. Southern faced App State on the road in the final game of the regular season and gave them all they could handle. They actually led in the 4th quarter and were outgained by only 32 yards. La Tech played North Texas on December 3rd and while they won by 11 points, the Bulldogs were outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis. That’s the same UNT team that App State outgained 11.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP on Monday. UNT ran 95 offensive snaps to just 56 for App State and STILL lost by 4 TD’s. Ga Southern runs a unique triple option scheme on offense that is tough to prepare for. The Eagles rank 7th nationally in rushing at 262 YPG. La Tech is not a strong run defense ranking 88th so GSU should control the line of scrimmage here. The Eagles starting QB Werts was out the last 2 games, including their down to the wire loss @ App State, but has been practicing a most likely will play here. Even if not, the starter will be senior Moseley who has plenty of experience in this offense. Speaking of offense, La Tech is a wreck on that side of the ball. They rank 113th nationally in total offense and they will be without their starting QB Anthony here who was lost to a season ending injury in their regular season finale. His back up Allen only attempted 97 passes this season and this team can’t run the ball (97 YPG rushing) which will put more pressure on the QB to make plays. Tech has a 5-4 record on the season but they were outgained on a YPP basis in every game this year (minus Houston Baptist). They average only 4.1 YPP in their 8 games vs FBS opponents and will struggle to keep up here. Georgia Southern wins the trenches on both sides of the ball here and a team that can do that normally comes out on top. Lay it with Georgia Southern. |
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12-22-20 | Clippers v. Lakers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 LA Clippers vs. LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - If you are any kind of a basketball fan you shouldn’t need a history lesson on these two teams, so we’ll keep it short. These two Los Angeles rivals don’t like each other and will again be the two contenders to come out of the West. Both made significant changes in the offseason which included Clippers head coach Doc Rivers getting the boot. The Lakers lost several key assets in Rondo, Howard, McGee and Avery Bradley but brought in Schroder, Marc Gasol, Wes Matthews and Montrezl Harrell. As long as the Lakers have LeBron and AD though it doesn’t matter who else is on the roster. The Clippers had some turnover too and brought in Serge Ibaka, Luke Kennard and Nicolas Batum. The Clippers will go as far as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can take them. Defense is the name of the game here as both teams finished the regular season in the top five in defensive efficiency ratings as the Clippers allowed 1.077-points per possession while the Lakers gave up 1.076PPP. The number set on this game by Vegas reflects what teams were scoring at the end of the regular season and the playoffs last season in the Bubble games. Shooting and scoring was up late in the season as the smaller confines and no crowds made for better shooting sightlines. In the four meetings between these two teams last year, they combined for total points of 204 (in Bubble), 215, 217 and 214, all of which stayed Under the total. Based on our math model we have 216 total points being scored in this one. BET UNDER. |
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12-22-20 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 49-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -2.5 over St Mary, CA 9 PM ET - Great situation here with a very good San Diego State team coming off a loss to another solid team in BYU. The Aztecs have played one of the tougher schedules to date with quality wins over UCLA, Pepperdine and Arizona State. San Diego State is the 54th rated offensive efficiency unit in college hoops averaging 1.080 points per possession and a defense that gives up just .910PPP which is 26th best. St Mary’s is obviously a quality team this season with an 8-1 SU record but their strength of schedule of 185 doesn’t compare with SDSU. San Diego State was 30-2 last season and have 70% of their roster intact. Off their loss the Aztecs rebound here with a win. |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
#270 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56.5 Points – Tulane vs Nevada, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - The Tulane offense improved greatly in the 2nd half of the season as freshman QB Pratt acclimated to the offense and the college game. He came on strong in the 2nd half of the season throwing for over 200 yards in 4 of his last 6 games after not topping 200 in his first 3 starts. The Green Wave has a very solid running game ranking 19th nationally at 219 rushing YPG and once Pratt started opening up the passing game as well, this offense took off. In the last 6 games they’ve scored at least 30 points in all but one game and that was vs Tulsa who has a top 25 total defense & scoring defense. Even with that, Tulane put up 24 in that game. We full expect them to get to 30 points here. Nevada’s defense ranks 46th nationally in total defense but they’ve played a very weak schedule of offenses including Utah State, UNLV, and San Diego State. On offense, Nevada matches up very well vs Tulane’s defense. The Wolfpack are one of the better passing teams in the country averaging 325 YPG through the air (9th nationally). Their senior QB Strong, who ranks 6th nationally in passing YPG and in the top 20 in passing efficiency, should have a field day vs a Nevada defense that ranks 85th nationally in pass defense. On top of that, Tulane’s all time sack leader and first team all conference DE Johnson will be out for this game only helping Nevada’s passing attack. With the weather looking good in Boise (temp in the upper 30s and winds 10 to 15 MPH) we expect both of these teams to get to 30 points. Take the OVER here. |
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12-21-20 | Texas State v. Northern Arizona UNDER 132.5 | Top | 70-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 132.5 Texas State vs. Northern Arizona, 3PM ET - There is no other way to put this, but this game is going to be ugly. Both teams have struggled offensively this season with No. Arizona checking in with the 306th ranked offensive efficiency rating at .935 points per possession. The Lumberjacks are also one of the slowest teams in the nation in terms of tempo and average possession length. They have the 325th effective shooting percentage, rank 308th in 3-point shooting and 319th in 2-pt percentage AND it’s come against a weak schedule. The Lumberjacks have scored 64 or below in each outing, and 53 or below in three of four. Northern just played a fast paced, high scoring Eastern Washington team and they totaled 144-points. Texas State also prefers to play slow, ranking 330th in tempo and 291st in average possession length. The Bobcats average just .978-points per possession and don’t shoot it well with an EFG% of 48.4%. Texas State just played a fast-paced Denver team and totaled 138. This game is being played at Magness Arena in Denver which means higher altitude and fatigue becomes a factor. Neither team gets to 65 here. Bet UNDER |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -21 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* App State -21 over North Texas, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - App State is the FAR superior team here and they are motivated. This is a senior laden squad that is looking for their 5th straight bowl win. The seniors have addressed the team wanting to make sure they go 4-0 in their careers in bowl games. Football Outsiders has App State is ranked as 28th best team and UNT 122nd (out of 130). Our numbers concur with that. App State is by far the best team North Texas has played this season. SMU is next best ranked 44th and they beat UNT by 30. The Mean Green also lost to the 95th ranked team (UTSA) by 32 and the 116th ranked team (Charlotte) by 28. North Texas had one of the better offenses in the country this year, however they played a horrible slate of defenses. App State will be by far the best defense they’ve faced this year. They will also be short handed as their #1 offensive weapon, WR Darden who accounted for nearly half of their receiving yards this season and scored 19 TD’s, tops in the nation. They will also be minus one of their 2 QB’s which is significant as they’ve rotated throughout the year and their missing QB, Aune, is their best passer. UNT horrible defensively especially vs the run (243 rushing YPG allowed) and App St a very good running team (243 rushing YPG). They give up 41 PPG on the season. They have allowed at least 40 points vs 6 of their 8 FBS opponents this season. They won’t stop App State in this game. With their offense not a full strength and facing the best defense they’ve seen, we don’t expect UNT to put up a ton of points here. While App State is going for their 6th straight bowl win, the Mean Green are 1-5 their last 6 bowl appearances and their most recent post-season appearance was a 52-13 loss in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl. This one has blowout potential. |
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12-20-20 | Jets v. Rams UNDER 44 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 44 NY Jets @ LA Rams, 4:05PM ET - The Jets competed two weeks ago at home against the Raiders then rolled over last week against Seattle in a 3-40 loss. New York managed just 185 total yards of offense and 3-points against a Seattle defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. The Seahawks are giving up 25PPG and over 390YPG which ranks 27th in the NFL. The Jets managed just 3-points the week before the Raiders against an average Miami defense too. Today New York runs into one of the two or three best defenses in the NFL in the Rams. Los Angeles is 1st in yards allowed per game at 286, 1st in passing yards against, 3rd against the run and 3rd in points allowed per game at 19PPG. On average it takes opponents 15.1 yards to score a point which is the 10th best number in the NFL. The Jets offense is horrible even with Sam Darnold under center. It takes the Jets 19.2 yards to score a single point which is last in the NFL by a wide margin. NY’s average yards per play is just 4.7YPPL, again, last in the NFL. Yes, the Jets have given up points this season but despite gaudy offensive statistics (total yards, rushing and passing) the Rams only average 25PPG which is in the lower half of the NFL. The Jets are slightly above average in terms of pace while the Rams are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to tempo. Scoring has continually dropped this NFL season so a Total this low doesn’t scare us off, especially when the Jets could legitimately get shutout here. Bet Under! |
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12-20-20 | Patriots +1.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
#353 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England +1.5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Pats are off a 24-3 loss @ LA Rams and they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game as that was on a Thursday. Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare his defense and you’re usually going to get a great scheme and effort. Give him extra time to prepare facing a rookie QB and then watch out. In his New England career, Belichick has faced 30 rookie QB’s. His record in those games is 25-5 SU. The last 11 times he’s faced a rookie QB for the very first time, he’s 11-0 SU in those games. This will be the first time he faces Miami QB Tagovailoa. Two weeks ago New England was in a similar spot as a small road dog vs everyone’s rookie of the year QB Herbert for the Chargers. What happened in that game? Patriots won 45-0 holding Herbert to 0 TD’s and under a 50% completion rate with 2 picks. Miami is coming off what looks like a close battle with KC last week as they lost 33-27 picking up the tight cover as 7-point underdogs. The truth is, they were down 30-10 entering the 4th quarter and they were outgained 7.3 YPP to 4.8 YPP. The 2 games prior to last week the Fins played the Jets & Bengals, the 2 worst teams in the NFL (Miami won both). Since Tagovailoa took over, the Dolphins are 4-2 in his starts but they’ve been lucky to get to that mark as they’ve been dominated statistically. In fact, if we throw out their game vs the Bengals (he didn’t start or play vs the Jets), in the other 5 games Miami has been outgained by 766 total yards. We expect the NE defense to have lots of success here. Offensively they should move the ball as well. This is a bad match up for the Miami defense. Their weakness is definitely stopping the run as they rank 21st in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 26th in YPC allowed. Facing a New England offense that runs the ball more than any other team with Newton at QB and ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing is not ideal for the Fins. They’ve faced only two other top 10 rushing team this year in the Cardinals & Rams. Arizona rushed for 178 yards on nearly 5 YPC and the Rams put up 131 yards rushing on 4.5 YPC. Lastly, road underdogs of 6 points or less this season in games expected to be low scoring (total set at 45 or less) are 15-1 ATS. We like New England to win this game. |
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12-19-20 | Panthers +8 v. Packers | Top | 16-24 | Push | 0 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina +8 over Green Bay, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET The Panthers are much better than their 4-9 record. For the season they are just -9 YPG and they actually outgain their opponents on a YPP basis (+0.1). Those are normally the numbers of a .500 type team. They have played a number of close games with 7 of their 9 losses coming by one score (8 points) which would get them a cover here at +8.5 or +9. The Panthers are cashing at a 70% rate as a dog this season (7-3 ATS) and we think they’ll keep this one within a TD. They get top WR Moore back in the line up and we love taking NFL dogs that can score points and Carolina can do that. They are averaging 26 PPG when Bridgewater starts at QB and they should be able to put up points vs this Green Bay defense that is OK, but not great by any means. The Packers have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games and the only offense that didn’t put up points over the last month vs this defense was Philly who has been a wreck on that side of the ball. Green Bay clinched the NFC North last week with a win over Detroit so while they are still fighting for the #1 seed, we wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t at the top of their game here. Bridgewater is an amazing 18-2 ATS as an underdog in non-division games and we like him to get another cover on Saturday night. Since their road opener @ Tampa, the Panthers have covered 5 straight road games including a 3 point loss @ New Orleans and a 2-point loss @ KC, two of the top teams in the NFL. This one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points. |
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12-19-20 | Stanford v. UCLA UNDER 59 | Top | 48-47 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Under 59 Stanford and UCLA, 7PM ET UCLA just faced USC last week and that game had a total set of 65 and USC is waaaayyyy better offensively than Stanford. The Trojans are top 25 in many offensive categories including yards per point and overall scoring (35.2PPG). Stanford can’t say the same as they rank 99th in yards per point offense, 65th in total yards per game and 84th in scoring at 25PPG. Both teams have better than average scoring defenses as both allow less than 29PPG on the season. Earlier this season Stanford played Colorado (similar to UCLA) and the two teams combined for 67 points in mid-November. Stanford scored 2 TD's in the final 8 minutes of that game and converted a pair of 2-point conversions or that could have very easily been 51 total points. In games against similar teams to Stanford the Bruins have played a few ugly low scoring games (Arizona State 43 total points, Arizona 37, Cal 44). Neither team has anything left to play for, so we don’t expect a shootout here. Stanford is one of the slower paced teams in all of college football and this will be the highest Total on a Cardinal game this season. Last year when these two teams met the O/U set by Vegas was 48.5 and they combined for 50-points. |
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12-19-20 | Illinois v. Penn State -15 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
#214 ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -15 over Illinois, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET Two teams definitely headed in opposite directions here. PSU has saved their season after starting 0-5 they have now rebounded to win 3 straight. Word out of Happy Valley is they are now having fun and excited to be playing and you can see it in their performance. Illinois, on the other hand, just got trounced by their in-state rival Northwestern and fired their coach this week. Now they have to go on the road and try to muster up the energy to play in a meaningless game with a lame duck interim coach. This is a very tough spot for the Illini. The Illinois defense is bad ranking dead last in the Big 10 in total defense, 13th in rush defense, and their pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 70% of their passes, the worst in the league. Last Saturday they allowed Northwestern to roll up 411 yards rushing. The Cats aren’t a great running team as they were averaging only 3.1 YPC entering last week. PSU’s offense has come alive during their 3 game winning streak averaging 30 PPG over those 3 and now they face the worst defense they’ve seen this year. The Nittany Lions are much better than their record. They were a top 10 team to start the season. They’ve outgained every team this year with the exception of Ohio State & Iowa. This team is 3-5 but they rank 2nd in the Big 10 in total offense and 4th in total defense. They can be vulnerable at times defending the pass, however Illinois is the worst passing team in the conference both on a YPG basis (180 YPG) and on a completion percentage basis (just 48%). On top of that, their best WR opted out this week and won’t play in this game. The records here are similar but there is really a pretty wide gap between these two. ON the season PSU has a +76 YPG differential and Illinois is -91 YPG. Just comparing these two alone, PSU is +51 YPG on offense and +116 YPG defensively. If Illinois gets down in this game, which we feel they will, we have a feeling this could get ugly. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon +3.5 v. USC | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon +3.5 over USC, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a classic underrated vs overrated spot in our opinion. Entering the season our research told us that Oregon was the best team in the Pac 12. We weren’t the only ones who shared that opinion as many other handicappers we respect felt the same way. Oregon lost 2 games along the way to their current 3-2 record. Both games were tight losses by 4 & 3 points and the Ducks had the ball late in the 4th quarter in each with a chance to win. What would this line be if Oregon had one both of those game which they certainly could have? In their most recent 21-17 loss @ Cal, the Ducks outgained the Bears by nearly 100 yards and had the ball in Cal territory in 3 of their last 4 possessions with a shot to win. Those possessions ended in 2 fumbles and a shut out on downs at the Bear 18 yard line. Speaking of fumbles, that has been a problem for the Ducks as they are -11 on the season, in just 5 games yet the STILL have a winning record. The Trojans are the exact opposite for us. They are very solid, but not as good as their 5-0 record. They’ve had to make 3 fourth quarter comebacks to get to their 5 wins. Last week vs arch rival UCLA, they trailed by 18 points made another late comeback scoring a TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game to win by 5. As long as Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch, we think USC’s luck runs out here. In fact, of the Ducks can keep this TO margin even, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. For the season the 3-2 Ducks are +47 YPG and +1.6 YPP. USC, vs a very similar schedule with 2 common opponents, is +35 YPG and only +0.1 YPP. Speaking of those common opponents this is where we see the value in this line with Oregon as a dog. They both played UCLA with Oregon favored by 18.5 in that game at home and USC favored by 3 at home. They both played Washington State with Oregon favored by 10.5 on the road and USC favored by 11 at home. Should Oregon actually be favored in this game. We wouldn’t disagree if that was the case. Take Oregon to win the Pac 12 Championship on Friday Night. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Las Vegas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Vegas is absolutely heading in the wrong direction. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and their last 3 games have been downright atrocious. Three weeks ago they traveled to Atlanta to play a Falcons team that was 4-7 at the time. The Raiders were dominated 43-6. A week after that they trailed the winless Jets with just seconds remaining but connected on a hail mary to win by 3. The LV defense allowed a terrible Jet offense to average 6.3 YPP in that game. That’s a NY offense that ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.7 YPP on the season. Last week in a must win game at home, the Raiders were again dominated losing 44-27 to the Colts. The defense was again shredded for 7.7 YPP. Now that already poor defense will be without 4 starters on Thursday night. The Chargers have a poor record but at least they’ve been competitive which is more than we can say as of late for the Raiders. With the exception of their no show a few weeks ago vs New England, seven of their eight other losses have come by one score (8 points or less). They have some momentum coming off a home win vs the Falcons, the same team that walloped the Raiders 43-6 a few weeks ago as we mentioned above. Being in the same division these two have played a very similar schedule. Vs the schedule, the Chargers are +46 YPG on the season while Las Vegas is -15 YPG. In the first meeting in November, Las Vegas won 31-26 however they were -10 first downs and -120 total yards. LA looks like they’ll be the much healthier team here as WR’s Allen & Williams along with RB Ekeler all practiced this week despite being listed as questionable. The dog is 17-6 ATS in this AFC West rivalry and there is no way we’re laying points with the Raiders the way they are playing right now. Chargers are the side. |
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12-17-20 | San Francisco v. Oregon OVER 143 | Top | 64-74 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 143 San Francisco vs. Oregon, 8PM ET The opening number on this game was 148 and has fallen throughout the day to the current number which gives us additional value. San Francisco is a team that has made some noise this season with a few quality wins over Virginia and Nevada and a couple close games against Rhode Island and California. The Dons are a senior laden team that can play with anyone right now and will compete with this Ducks team. San Francisco and California just put up 142 total points and the Cal Bears are one of THE slowest paced teams in college basketball. SF is averaging 1.068 points per possession which ranks 64th best in the nation. They shoot the 3-ball extremely well at 40% and should have success here against an Oregon team that is below average in defending the 3. The Ducks are below average in terms of pace of play, but they have the 15th best offensive efficiency numbers in college basketball at 1.109 points per possession. The Ducks averaged 76PPG last season while San Francisco scored 74PPG a year ago. Our model projects both teams scoring 75 or more points in this contest. Bet OVER. |
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12-16-20 | South Florida v. Cincinnati UNDER 132 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 132 South Florida vs. Cincinnati, 7 PM ET - Two really good defensive teams square off on Wednesday and we can’t see either team getting to the mid 60’s. The South Florida Bulls are six games into the season and have the 59th most efficient defense in college hoops allowing just .933 points per possession. They are also one of the slowest paced teams in the country at 248th. Those numbers are a true representation of this team as last season they were literally one of the slowest paced teams in all college hoops and had a defense that allowed .959 points per possession which was good for 63rd. On the other end of the court the Bulls weren’t good offensively a year ago with a horrendous EFG percentage, 3-point shooting and overall offensive efficiency. Cincinnati was 51st in defensive efficiency a year ago allowing under.950PPP, ranked 199th in pace and had the 25th best EFG% defense in college hoops. This season the Bearcats have been better yet defensively allowing just .912PPP. They are highly efficient offensively but also prefer a slower tempo and do not shoot the 3 well at 25%. Cincinnati also has a bigger game on deck with Georgia and may not be as focused here. Our model projects 127 total points. |
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12-15-20 | Minnesota v. Illinois OVER 146.5 | Top | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 146.5 Minnesota vs Illinois, 7 PM ET - We feel the oddsmakers had the correct opening number on this game and will bet against the move. Let’s start with the tempo or pace of play. Both teams have enough games under their belts for us to know what their preferred style of play is going to be this season. The Illini are 94th in tempo and have an average possession length of 16 seconds which is 82nd in the nation. Illinois is also highly efficient of the offensive end of the floor averaging 1.114 points per possession. HC Brad Underwood is known for his offense and it’s showing this year with a team that has the 8th best effective field goal percentage in the nation, shoot 44.3% from beyond the arc (8th best) and average 88PPG. Minnesota like to play fast also with the 67th fastest paced team in college basketball this season. On average the Gophers get a shut up every 14.8 seconds which is 25th in the country. Minnesota has scored 85 or more points in four of six games this season which has turned into a 84.2PPG scoring average this season. Yes, both teams have some impressive defensive numbers but the pace of this game and offenses will outshined each teams’ defenses. Let’s not forget the average total points scored in a college game this season is 145 so asking these two teams to score more than that is not a stretch. |
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12-14-20 | Nevada -3.5 v. San Diego | Top | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Nevada -3.5 over San Diego, 9 PM ET - We feel this is a generous number by the oddsmakers and will gladly side with the Wolfpack in this situation. Nevada was just favored by 1-point at Grand Canyon who is MUCH better than San Diego and lost by 10-points. Nevada is rebuilding this season with several new faces but there seems to be some continuity building on the offensive end of the floor where they have shot over 50% the last two contests. San Diego is going to struggle to score here with an offense that made just 31% of their field goal attempts in their opener against UCLA. That number is not an aberration though as the Toreros were putrid on offense a year ago ranking 315th in offensive efficiency at .944 points per possession. San Diego had one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation last season at 45.9%, they hit just 30.7% of their 3-pointers and 45.8% from inside the arc, which are again some of the worst statistics in college hoops a season ago. San Diego closed last season with a 2-15 SU record and we do not see them keeping pace with a Nevada team that is much better offensively (1.017PPP) and coming off a loss. |
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12-13-20 | Packers -8 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
#151 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -8 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not sure how Detroit stops the Packers in this game. Their defense ranks dead last in DVOA (Football Outsiders), 31st in scoring allowing 30 PPG, and 28th in YPP allowed. Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL (29th in yards per pass attempt allowed) and they put no pressure on the QB (27th in sack percentage). That’s a terrible recipe vs Aaron Rodgers and this red hot offense. The Packers have scored 31, 41, and 30 points their last 3 games vs solid defenses (Indy, Chicago, and Philly). What will they do this Sunday when they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL? If the first meeting is any indication, it will be ugly. The Packers put up 42 points in that game on nearly 500 total yards. Detroit’s defense has given up 71 points in just the last 2 weeks including 30 points to Chicago. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell led the Lions to a win last week at Chicago, but let’s face it there was some serious luck involved. They were down 30-20 with less than 3:00 minutes remaining in the game and Chicago had the ball and a 10 point lead. The conditions for offense in the dome will be perfect and Green Bay is averaging 37 PPG this season in the dome and many of those games are facing defenses a lot better than this Detroit team (New Orleans & Indy). GB is going to score a vast majority of their possessions and the Detroit offense is going to have to keep up. Matthew Stafford still has a bad throwing hand, his top RB Swift is most likely out again, and his top WR Golladay remains out. Detroit has a grand total of 1 home win this season and that was a 3 point win vs Washington on a last second field goal in a game the Lions were outgained by nearly 100 yards. Rodgers owns the NFC North with a 45-26 ATS record in his career. A win here locks up the division and we like the Packers to roll here. |
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12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-36 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
#159/160 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – Houston @ Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This total is set too low. We understand the season numbers for Chicago say bad offense, good defense. Those numbers have changed over the last few weeks. Trubisky is back at starting QB and like him or not, when he starts this year they are averaging 26 PPG. Since taking over for Foles a few weeks ago, the Bears have scored 25 vs the Packers and 30 vs Detroit. That success should continue here vs a bad Houston defense. The Texans rank 27th in defensive DVOA (Football Outsiders), 30th in total defense, and 24th in scoring defense. Last week they lost to Houston 26-20 combining for 46 points, however that was extremely deceiving. The score at halftime was 24-20 and they scored a grand total of 2 points in the 2nd half despite plenty of chances. The Houston offense played well averaging 6.4 YPP in that game vs one of the better defenses in the NFL. With this total set at 45.5 or 46, we look at Houston’s full season and see their games have reached at least 46 points in 10 of their 12 games this year and one of those was @ Cleveland in gale force winds (the other they totaled 44 points vs Jacksonville). They should have success vs a Chicago defense that is trending down. They’ve allowed 41 and 34 points the last 2 weeks vs GB and Detroit. Going back further, the Chicago defense has allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Weather can be a problem in Chicago this time of year, but not for this game. Temps in the mid 30’s and very light winds (5 MPH). With this game close to a pick-em a final score of 23-23 puts this at or over the number depending on your line. We think both teams top 23 points in this game. Take the OVER. |
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12-13-20 | Wright State v. Bowling Green OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 150.5 Wright State vs. Bowling Green 12 PM ET - Our math model has again uncovered a glaring error by the oddsmakers on a line in college hoops on Sunday. The projections for the Wright State vs. Bowling Green game are 160 according to our computers and we couldn’t agree more with them. Let’s examine last years numbers first. Bowling Green was much faster than average in terms of pace of play a year ago ranking 81st in tempo and 88th in average possession length at 16.6 seconds. The Falcons were above average in terms of offensive efficiency and well below average in terms of defensive efficiency. In other words, they score, and allow opponents to score. Bowling Green just played Buffalo who is similar to Wright State in many key statistical categories and they combined for 164 total points. Wright State only has two games under their belt this season but already look very similar to last years team that was 31st in tempo, 132nd in offensive efficiency and around average in defensive efficiency. Wright State was the 7th highest scoring team in the nation last season at 80PPG. BG put up 74PPG and this game sets up to be a shootout. |
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12-12-20 | Stanford v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
#124 ASA CFB TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Stanford, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This is simply a terrible situation for Stanford. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and they haven’t even been home period since last Tuesday, Dec 1st. Santa Clara county announced that contact sports would be put on hold starting November 30th and lasting until at least December 21st. Because of that, the only way Stanford can play or practice was to leave the area. Last Tuesday they made their way to Seattle, stayed in a hotel, practiced where they could and then played Washington on Saturday. The Cardinal were able to pull together and pick up a huge upset beating the Huskies 31-26 as a 13 point underdog. That was just a week after they beat arch rival Cal 24-23. So now Stanford is off back to back huge wins and on the road again vs a team they probably will have trouble getting excited about, Oregon State. On top of that, Stanford traveled straight from Seattle to Corvallis, has been living in a hotel again this week preparing for this game and they are now a road favorite. Not ideal to say the least. OSU is underrated in our opinion. Two weeks ago they upset Oregon here 41-38 putting up 260 yards on the ground. Top RB Jefferson 226 yards. A week earlier they beat Cal here at home with Jefferson rushing for 196 yards vs a very good Golden Bear defense. After their big win over the Ducks, OSU traveled to Utah short handed missing a number of players due to covid including RB Jefferson. Starting QB Gebbia who was injured vs Oregon and is out for the season. Despite being shorthanded, they played a solid Utah team to the wire losing 30-24. Back up QB Nolan got his feet wet last week and played pretty well @ Utah throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 36. The Beavers get RB Jefferson back here along with some other key players who were out last week. They should be able to run the ball very well on this Stanford defense that ranks 100th nationally stopping the run. Bad spot for Stanford vs a undervalued OSU team. Take the points. |
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12-12-20 | Wofford v. South Florida UNDER 134.5 | Top | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 134.5 Wofford vs. South Florida, 12 PM ET This is a very low number, but we will play UNDER here in the Wofford vs. South Florida game. Both teams have several similarities here as they play extremely slow offensively and are known for their defensive intensity. Last year the Bulls were literally one of the slowest paced teams in college basketball ranking 324th in tempo and they took 18.5 seconds to get a shot up which was 308th. Defensively they were outstanding allowing just .959 points per possession which was 63rd in the nation. Wofford was 293 in pace last year and took 18 seconds on average to get a shot off which was 257th in college hoops a year ago. Defensively the Terriers are allowing less than 1.000 points per possession this season. Last season Wofford did not have great defensive numbers but part of that was a byproduct of playing in the Southern Conference which had six teams in the top 80 in terms of tempo last season. Last year when these two teams met, they combined for just 124 total points on 96 field goal attempts. Both teams shot well, and it still didn’t have a chance to go Over. Easy bet Under. |
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12-11-20 | Niagara v. St. Peter's UNDER 135 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 135 Niagara vs. St Peters, 8 PM ET |
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12-10-20 | San Diego State v. Arizona State OVER 142 | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: OVER 142 San Diego State vs. Arizona State, 10PM ET We like OVER here, even more with the line drop from 147 to where it currently stands. There are a few givens here that help us accurately predict a higher scoring game here. We know for a fact the Sun Devils are going to play fast and score points. In a short sample size the Sun Devils are averaging 1.113 point per possession (10th nationally) and typically take just 15.5 seconds to get a shot up which is 46th. That coincides to last year’s averages of 1.060PPP (108th) and an Adjusted Tempo of 73.2 which was 14th. Arizona State averaged 74PPG a season ago. ASU was below average in points allowed per game last season (195th) at 71PPG allowed. ASA played a better version of San Diego State earlier this season and Vegas set a number of 158 on that game and the two teams combined for 157 total points. We haven’t overlooked the fact the Aztecs play extremely slow and are fantastic defensively. SDSU is 24th in defensive efficiency this season and were 10th last season allowing just .9000 points per possession. But they are also highly efficient on offense and score 1.070 points per possession, shoot 3’s well at 32.4% and have an EFG% of 50. The Aztecs attempt a lot of three pointers at 24 per game and ASU is not great at defending beyond the arc. The Total on this game has been over-compensated and sets up for an EASY OVER! |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – New England @ LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Most will look at the Patriots 45-0 win last week and think the offense lit it up. Not the case. In fact, the Pats had just 291 total yards in the game. They benefited from a punt return for a TD and a blocked punt return for a TD. Plus they were playing a bad Charger defense that has now allowed at least 27 points in 9 straight games. A week earlier they scored 20 points in a win over Arizona and had only 179 total yards. That’s 65 points the last 2 weeks despite averaging only 235 YPG. That can’t continue. Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Rams are in the top 5 in total defense and scoring defense and they rank #1 in the NFL allowing only 4.6 YPP. New England is in the bottom 10 in scoring averaging just 22 PPG. In the 5 games this year the Ram defense has played a team currently ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring, they’ve allowed an average of 13 PPG. Defensively, the Pats have been playing very well. The have allowed 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. We’re not talking about poor offenses either as the 3 teams they scored 17 or less were the Ravens, Cardinals, and Chargers. The Rams have played to the UNDER in 7 of their last 9 games and New England has gone UNDER in 4 straight. With the spread set a Rams -5, the projected score in this game is LA 25 – New England 20. We don’t think either team hits their projected score here and we like the UNDER. |
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12-09-20 | Northern Iowa v. Richmond OVER 148.5 | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 148.5 Northern Iowa vs Richmond, 6 PM ET - Our models are projecting 154 or more total points on this contest as two highly efficient offenses square off. Richmond is averaging 1.075 points per possession this season which is 44th best in college hoops. That’s no fluke as the Spiders were 53rd last season at 1.092PPP. Richmond also prefers a faster tempo style of play as they ranked 124th in adjusted tempo a year ago and are 58th this season. On average it takes Richmond just 15.4 seconds to get a shot up. They have an effective FG% of 54.8% which is also outstanding. Richmond has faced two very slow paced teams this season in Morehead State and Wofford and one really good defensive team in Kentucky which has kept this O/U number from getting too high. No. Iowa is also very efficient at 1.058PPP this season which is slightly lower than last years number of 1.127 which was 23rd in the nation. The Panthers have a 54.9% EFG percentage, rank 123rd in pace this season and hit 44.6% of their 3-point attempts. Northern Iowa has played one similar opponent to Richmond (in terms of pace and offensive efficiency) this season and that was Utah State. That game resulted in 153 total points. |
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12-08-20 | Austin Peay v. Murray State UNDER 147 | Top | 57-87 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 147 Austin Peay vs. Murray State, Tues 8:30PM ET Austin Peay and Murray State are two of the best teams in the Ohio Valley Conference, along with Belmont, and this should be a fantastic early conference game to start the season. These two teams played three times last season with Murray State winning 2 of three, including a conference tourney win to end AP’s season. Both teams are loaded with returning talent which gives up a great barometer for this season’s matchup. In the three games last season Vegas posted totals of 143, 142 and 145 and all three ended with 139 or fewer total points being scored. In other words, we are getting more value with today’s O/U number and a solid history of 5 of the last six meetings being Unders. Last season Ohio Valley conference games averaged 142 total points per game. Austin Peay was the 2nd slowest paced teams in conference action a year ago while Murray State was 5th. Murray State was the best defensive team in the OVC allowing just .943 points per possession. Austin Peay was 3rd at 1.000PPP. The Under trend continues in the rivalry. Bet UNDER. |
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12-07-20 | Bills +2 v. 49ers | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +2 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco has had plenty of distractions leading up to this game as they’ve had to move their entire operation to Phoenix where they will play the remainder of their “home” games. Making it worse, the Niners have already been on the road 4 of their last 5 games. This will be the 5th weekend they’ve been away from home since October 25th. We also like the line value here. Our power ratings have Arizona a few spots ahead of SF and Buffalo was +3 here vs the Cards just a few weeks ago. Now they are +2 vs SF on this neutral site. In that game vs the Cardinals on November 15th the Bills led 23-9 midway through the 3rd quarter. That was the infamous hail mary game as Arizona QB Murray threw a 43 yard TD pass to WR Hopkins with 2 second remaining in the game to pull out a miracle 32-30 come from behind win. Buffalo had this solid Arizona team beat on their home field. SF’s defense has some solid numbers this year but they have struggled with mobile QB’s which Buffalo’s Josh Allen definitely is. When facing Arizona (Kyler Murray), Seattle (Russell Wilson), New Orleans (Taysom Hill) and New England (Cam Newton) the Niners are just 1-3 with their only win coming vs the Patriots. San Fran is getting some extra love after pulling the upset vs the Rams in their most recent game. Let’s not forget prior to that upset, they had lost 3 in a row all by double digits. QB Mullens is not a bet on signal caller in our opinion as he is just 5-9 in his 14 NFL career starts. Seems like everyone is on the Niners here as we’ve flopped favorite as Buffalo opened as a 2.5 point favorite. We’ll gladly take the value and go against everybody here. |
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12-06-20 | Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5, NY Giants @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Seattle has changed their offensive philosophy over the last few weeks. Pete Carroll is trying to take some pressure off Russell Wilson and run the ball much more often. That’s what Carroll has always preferred anyway. Now that RB’s Carson & Hyde are both healthy, they’ve run the ball 30+ times each of the last 2 weeks after running it 30 times just twice in their first 8 games. The Seahawks have been successful running the ball as well with 241 yards on the ground the last 2 games. Seattle ranked #1 in drop back rate (almost 70%) over the first 10 weeks but the last 2 games they’ve ranked 15th and 20th in that category. Seattle has also been very deliberate on offense the last 2 weeks as they are dead last in pace over those 2 games. With running the ball more often and slowing down their pace, they are also trying to give their defense, who has faced more snaps than any other team in the NFL, a break. It’s working as the Seattle stop unit has allowed just 23, 21, and 17 points the last 3 weeks. They should have success here vs a NYG offense that ranks 30th in scoring at 19.5 PPG and will probably be without their QB as Daniel Jones who is dealing with a hamstring issue. Colt McCoy will most likely get the start for the Giants and he is more of a game manager than a big play QB. Even with Jones under center, NYG has topped 21 points just 1 time in their last 6 games. Defensively it’s another story for the Giants. They are solid. This is a top 10 defense (allowing 340 YPG) that over the last 6 games they’ve held their opponents to just 20 PPG. The Giants have gone UNDER the total 6 of the last 7 times they’ve been a road underdog and we expect another low scoring game here. |
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12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -3 over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We love this spot for Indy. They are off a blowout home loss to Tennessee last week. The defense, which was short handed last Sunday, allowed Tennessee 6.6 YPP which is their worst performance of the season. Even with that, this Colt defense ranks 7th in the NFL in YPP allowed. They were without their top DL Buckner and their top DE Autry who lead the team in sacks. Both are back for this game and we expect an angry Indy defense that plays very well. Offensively they were also without their top RB Taylor last week and he is back on Sunday. Houston, on the other hand, has lost a number of key players this week. Their top WR Fuller and top DB Roby have both been suspended for using PED’s. The loss of Fuller is huge for this offense as he had become QB Watson’s favorite target with 22 catches for almost 400 yards over the last 4 games. They are now really thin at WR after cutting Kenny Stills last week and losing Randall Cobb to injury. That’s a big problem for a team that can’t run the ball (31st in the NFL averaging only 83 YPG on the ground). On the other side of the ball the Texans rank 30th in total defense and 30th in YPP defense. So that can’t run the ball, their defense has been poor, and they are now very inexperienced at WR. Not a winning combination. The Texans have won 3 of their last 4 but they’ve been outgained in each of those games. They have 4 wins this year vs Jacksonville (twice), Detroit, and New England who are all below .500 and have a combined record of 10-23. Indy is now sitting at 7-4 and 1-game behind Tennessee so a must win here. Indy’s offense has scored 30+ in 4 of their last 6 games and should put up plenty of points vs a bad Houston defense. The Colts are the better team and they are 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 trips to Houston. Lay the FG here. |
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12-05-20 | Samford v. Belmont OVER 157 | Top | 96-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: OVER 157 Samford vs. Belmont, 5PM ET - This game sets up to be a high scoring affair with two teams that want to get out and run, get easy buckets in transition, and outscore opponents. Last season Belmont was the 65th fastest paced team in college hoops and a top 100 team in terms of offensive efficiency. The Bruins got it done mainly from “downtown” with a team that shot 34.8% from beyond the arc (94th) and were 10th in effective FG% at 54.8%. On average it took Belmont just 15.7 seconds to get a shot off last season which was 22nd in the nation. Belmont will continue to play fast this season with the 46th fastest paced tempo and an offense that is averaging 1.039 points per possession (84th). The Bruins played another team this season, Howard, who is remarkably similar to this Samford team in terms of pace and are poor defensively. In that game (Belmont/Howard) they combined for 173 total points. As for Samford we know they are going to push the pace as they rank 28th in tempo this season and were 25th last season. In the 2019 season the Bulldogs took just 15.9 seconds to get a shot up which was 34th fastest in college hoops. Samford was horrendous defensively a year ago ranking 332nd in defensive efficiency and 342nd in 3-point opponent 3-point shooting, which plays right into Belmont’s hands. Last season these two teams combined for 158, the year before 164 in regulation. This year will be higher yet. |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -12.5 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -12.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Wisconsin -11 and that was before IU knew their starting QB Penix was out for the season. Once that was announced this line jumped to -14 and we don’t think it’s enough. Penix is worth much more than 3 points to this team. He was a huge reason their offense was able to top 30 points in 4 of their first 6 games. He led the Big 10 in passing yards and has accounted for 16 of IU’s 24 TD’s this season. The best 2 teams IU played this season were PSU which they beat on OT 36-35 despite getting outgained by almost 300 yards. Then their game @ OSU was on the way to being a blowout with the Buckeyes up 35-7 when Penix went wild and threw for almost 500 yards and 5 TD’s to bring the Hoosiers back in that game. Without Penix, we have no doubt they lose vs PSU (who now has only 1 win on the season) and they get destroyed by OSU. What makes him even more important to this offense is the fact that Indiana can’t run the ball. They put up good numbers on the ground last week vs Maryland, who ranks 116th in rush defense, but prior to that they were averaging 73 YPG on the ground. That puts huge pressure on the QB to make plays and Penix was up to the task. Now they start Jack Tuttle who has 16 career pass attempts. On top of that they face a Wisconsin defense that is outstanding. The Badgers rank #1 nationally in total defense, #3 in rush defense, and #3 in pass defense. IU will not be able to run the ball in this game. Tuttle will have to have the game of his life to keep the Hoosiers in this one. We don’t see that happening. Wisconsin is fresh for this one. They had last week’s game vs Minnesota cancelled. HC Chryst mentioned his team was able to heal up with the week off after their loss @ Northwestern. In that game Wisconsin lost 17-7 but their were +5 first downs, +103 total yards, +112 rushing yards, and +15 minute time of possession. Problem is they had 5 turnovers which is unlike a Wisconsin team. They also played that game with both starting WR’s out and they were down to playing a freshman and 2 senior walk ons. Because of that, QB Mertz was out of synch with his receivers from the beginning and tried to force a few things which led to turnovers. The Badger defense held Northwestern to just 3.4 YPP in that loss and the Cats rushed the ball 23 times for 24 yards. Again, IU will not have success on the ground in this game. With the Badgers coming off a disappointing loss, with extra time to prepare, getting healthy (WR Davis is the only question mark on offense), and facing a team with an inexperienced QB we love this situation. On top of that, while the Badgers are rested and healthy, this will be Indiana’s 7th straight week without a break. We don’t think Wisconsin will have to score much to cover this number. With the total set at 45.5, the projected score is right around 30-16. We think the Badger offense gets rolling here and scores at least that while we would not be at all surprised if Indiana scores less than 14 points. Wisconsin has won 10 straight in this series and we think they take another here by more than 2 TD’s. |
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12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -115 | Top | 42-31 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas Mean Green (-) vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Thursday at 6:00 PM ET: Game #324 |
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12-02-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas OVER 148 | Top | 60-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA play on: Over 148 UT Arlington vs. Arkansas, Weds 9PM ET This really could not set up any better than it does with the results of the games played thus far. Starting with Texas Arlington. UTA put up 151 total points against Northwestern State, 147 with Louisiana Tech and 143 with Oklahoma State. In the NWST game the two teams combined for 142 shot attempts which is 28 more FG attempts than last year's national average. Northwestern State also plays a similar style of play as Arkansas which is up-tempo, but UTA and NWST both shot poorly or that game ends with way more than 151 total points. Against LA Tech, a slower paced team, the Mavericks also got 70 field goal attempts up but again didn’t shoot it as well, and the game still ended with 147 total points. UTA also faced Oklahoma State who was (slow) 238th in possessions per game last season and a top 90 team in terms of defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Mavs face an Arkansas team that was 49th in possessions per game a year ago which ranked 49th in the nation. The Hogs take just 14.5 seconds to get a shot up this season which is 20th fastest in college hoops. Arkansas is averaging 1.068 points per possession and have the 22nd best effective FG percentage in the country right now. Arkansas put up 142 points themselves in their opener but then played a slow and deliberate North Texas team which resulted in just 123 total points, 69 for Arkansas. North Texas though was 340th in possessions per game last year out of 353 schools so they got the tempo they wanted, and it led to an extremely low scoring game. Arkansas is very capable of putting up 85+ in this game and Arlington has enough capable scoring options to keep this close throughout. In the end it is 155 total points. |
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12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Creighton OVER 149 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 149 Nebraska-Omaha vs. Creighton, 5PM ET We can make a solid case for an over bet here when these instate schools face off on Tuesday. Let’s start with Creighton who is ranked as the 2nd best team in the Big East and a top ten overall ranking in college basketball. The Jays are coming a lower scoring win 69-58 over North Dakota State which has helped keep this line lower than it should be. Inside the numbers we find that Creighton actually played faster in the game with 63 field goal attempts but shot poorly at 43% overall and 23% from the 3-point line. They were also up against a NDSU team that was one of the slowest paced in college basketball last year at 275. Creighton was 148th in pace of play last season. Those shooting statistics are significantly lower than their season average from a year ago when they made 46.9% from the field (23rd) and 38.7% from beyond the arc which was 6th best in the nation. With a loaded roster and coming off that bad shooting night we expect a drastically better scoring output for the Bluejays here, especially against a Nebraska Omaha team that was 286th in defensive efficiency, 300th in effective FG% defense and 306th in defending the 3-pointer last season. The other team on the floor in this game, Nebraska Omaha, was the 66th fastest paced team in college hoops last year and want to get up and down. NEOM averaged 73.5PPG last season which was good for 85th in the nation. Creighton will get to the mid-to-high 80’s here and NEOM gets to the mid-to-high 60’s. Bet Over! |