08-31-20 |
Stars v. Avalanche -131 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 9:45 PM ET
Opportunities to take a very good team off an ugly loss are generally few and far between and so when that opportunity arises you want to take full advantage. This is one of those cases as the Avalanche entered the post-season as absolutely one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year. However, they came out flat in Game One of this series and the Stars blitzed them early and Colorado never fully recovered in that game. After responding in Game Three after dropping the first two games of this series, the Avs again have found themselves in a bounce back spot. As surprising as it is to see Colorado in this elimination game situation, there is no surprise in finding that the Avalanche have won 5 of the last 6 times when off a loss. This is still a highly talented and proud team and, while coming back from a 3-1 series deficit may be too much to ask, extending this series to a Game 6 is not too much to ask. Per our computer math model, the Avalanche "rally the troops" here and improve to 6-1 the last 7 times they have entered a game off a loss. Based on this low money line on the Avs in this one, the fact is that the Stars are getting a little too much respect at this point! We'll take advantage and grab the value...lay it! Bet the Colorado Avalanche on the money line in late night action Monday.
|
08-31-20 |
Rockets -5 v. Thunder |
Top |
100-104 |
Loss |
-107 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET With this being an elimination game, you would expect most bettors to back the Thunder and the dog here but not us. The Rockets are a completely different team when they have dynamic guard Russell Westbrook in the lineup, and even though his numbers were not significant in the Rockets Game 4 win, he still had an impact. Westbrook’s ability to get to the rim and in driving lanes forces defenders in slightly instead of being in the gaps which allows Rocket shooters another split second to get a shot off. Expect more minutes and production from Westbrook tonight against the Thunder. OKC thought they found a way to contain James Harden with rookie Luguentz Dort defending him in Games 3 & 4 and causing problems for the Rockets scoring machine. In Game 5 the Rockets adjusted, hit Dort with better angles on screens which freed up Hardin who scored 31-points on just 15 shots. Dort then proved to be a liability on the offensive end of the floor where he missed 13 of 16 field goal attempts. The Rockets have been significantly better defensively in the playoffs and the Bubble allowing less points per possession than they did during the regular season while maintaining an offensive efficiency that is averaging 1.118PPP against OKC. We recognize the Thunder have solid support as an underdog and when off a loss, but the Rockets have too many scoring options for the Thunder to overcome.
|
08-31-20 |
Nationals v. Phillies -131 |
Top |
6-8 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET
When a team is down 10-0 in the top of the 2nd inning and yet battles all the way back to almost win the game you know you have a team with no quit. That is the case with the Phillies. Though certainly they would have rather had the sweep and not lost yesterday's series finale with the Braves, there is no hanging of heads for this Philly team. They battled all the way back and were down 11-10 heading to the 9th inning of yesterday's 12-10 loss. Now Philadelphia takes on a struggling Nationals team and the Phillies also hold a pitching edge here. Spencer Howard is a highly touted rookie and he has gotten past a blister issue that was giving him trouble earlier this season. In his most recent start Howard allowed 1 earned run in 3 and 2 / 3 innings while striking out 5. He also kept the ball in the yard in that one and his good stuff should be on full display at home against the struggling Nationals on Monday night. Washington has not won back to back games in 3 weeks! Since August 5th the Nats are 8-15. That included losing their only 2 meetings with the Phillies. As the defending World Champs, the Nationals have had a target on their backs this season and the Phillies are a division rival that has special disdain for Washington in particular due to having former Nat Bryce Harper on their roster now. Already 2-0 against the Nationals this season, the Phillies go for more tonight as they look to add to a stretch that had seen them win 5 straight games before last night's loss. Philadelphia had also won 5 straight home games before falling just short at Citizens Bank Park last night. The Phillies will take advantage of seeing Erick Fedde for the 2nd time in a week on Monday. Fedde has a 5.14 ERA at the MLB level with opponents hitting .290 against him. The Phillies are very familiar with Fedde and he struggled against them in last week's outing. Philadelphia has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games and stay hot at the plate here per our computer math model which also is forecasting Howard to build off his most recent start and put together his most complete start at the MLB level. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Monday.
|
08-30-20 |
Golden Knights v. Canucks OVER 5.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:30 PM ET
Game 1 stayed just under the total as Vegas erupted for 5 goals but Vancouver was uncharacteristically held to a goose egg. 9 of the last 11 times the Canucks had been shutout or held to just one goal in a game, they had scored 3 or more goals in their next game. Sure enough Vancouver responded with a 5-goal outburst in Game 2. We used the over in that game and we'll use it again here in Game 4 after the Canucks were again shutout in Game 3. Our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here. Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of its 11 games in the bubble. The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 4 of their 12 games in the bubble. There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver continues to be a lot for the Knights to deal with. The Canucks made adjustments to increase the quality of their scoring chances in Game 2 and will do the same in Game 4 after falling short in Game 3. The expectation Sunday is that both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often as this is a back to back situation and that puts pressure on the d-men in front of the goalies as they play extra minutes in a 24 hour window. Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up. Though it didn't work out in Game 3 (Canucks shut out) we're sure of a Game 4 response from Vancouver. That said, this one is likely to play out similar to the first three games of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one has seen the Stars and Avalanche combine for an average of 8.3 goals per game thus far. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Sunday
|
08-30-20 |
Padres v. Rockies OVER 12.5 |
Top |
13-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET
Yesterday's game saw the teams combine for 23 hits but there were 5 double plays in the game and it totaled only 7 runs. The prior game between these teams on Friday totaled 14 runs. That was preceded by the following run totals in the Rockies 3 preceding home games: 18, 19, 16. The weather in Denver this afternoon will be very warm and very dry and the conditions are perfect for the ball to be jumping off the bat and carrying very well at Coors Field. Per our computer math model, a run total in the range of the 17 runs that the Rockies 4 preceding home games averaged is what is expected here this afternoon. Chris Paddack gets the start for San Diego in this one. He has not been himself this season and opponents are hitting .303 with a .797 slugging percentage against his fastball. That, in and of itself, is a problem for Paddack. Adding to the concern for him here is the fact that he has been hit hard on the road this season plus now makes his first ever start at Colorado. Coors Field has been known to be a bit of a "house of horrors" for young pitchers when they make their first appearance there and this outing is likely to go no differently with the poor recent form of Paddack. As for Rockies starter Ryan Castellani, like most Colorado pitchers he is much better on the road than at home. In his most recent home start he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Castellani only struck out 1 in that game and the rookie right-hander has given up a pair of homers in each of his last two starts overall. He is facing a Padres team that has a .479 slugging percentage on the season. That is the #1 ranked slugging percentage in the National League. Prior to yesterday's loss, San Diego had won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 8.4 runs per game in those 9 victories. Look for an 9-8 type game in this one as it flies over the total. Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Sunday.
|
08-30-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors OVER 216 |
Top |
112-94 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Over 216 Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors, 1PM ET Sunday The total on this game is based heavily on the fact that these two teams are two of the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings (Raptors 2nd, Celtics 4th) but the number has been over-adjusted according to our math models. These two rivals met in the Bubble w/Total set by Vegas of 222.5 and now we have a number drastically lower for Game 1. Not to mention, the Bubble game finished with 222 total points which gets us the cash here. In the last eight meetings these two teams have combined for 216 or more points five times, AND the other three games stayed below 216 total points by the sum of 9-points. It’s no secret the Bubble games have been higher scoring as the smaller confines make for better shooting sightlines, which has led to higher scoring games. Before the Playoffs started the games in the restart averaged 231 total points. Thus far in the Playoffs games are averaging 225PPG. In the regular season NBA games averaged just over 222 total points so you can see for yourself this number is set below an average NBA outcome. Neither of these two teams were fast in terms of pace of play during the regular season but in the Bubble games they both averaged about 3 more possessions per game, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but is. The Celtics were the 4th most efficient offense in the NBA this season while Toronto was 14th but the Raptors OEFF numbers in the first round were fantastic at 1.220PPP. This game gets into the 228 range rather easily.
|
08-29-20 |
Golden Knights v. Canucks OVER 6 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
35 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET
Game 1 stayed just under the total as Vegas erupted for 5 goals but Vancouver was uncharacteristically held to a goose egg. 9 of the last 11 times the Canucks had been shutout or held to just one goal in a game, they had scored 3 or more goals in their next game. Sure enough Vancouver responded with a 5-goal outburst in Game 2. We used the over in that game and we'll use it again here though this time the total is posted at 6 goals by the odds maker. That said, we need 7 goals here but the Golden Knights have seen 6 of their 10 games in the bubble in Edmonton total 7 or more goals. The Canucks have seen 6 of their last 9 games total 7 or more goals. Not surprisingly given the above, our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here. Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of its 10 games in the bubble. The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of their 11 games in the bubble. There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver continues to be a lot for the Knights to deal with. The Canucks made adjustments to increase the quality of their scoring chances in Game 2 and will build on that in Game 3. However, you know the Golden Knights will respond off the Game 2 loss! The expectation Saturday is that both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often. Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up. This one is likely to play out similar to the first three games of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one has seen the Stars and Avalanche combine for an average of 8.3 goals per game thus far. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Saturday
|
08-29-20 |
Nationals -109 v. Red Sox |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Washington Nationals Money Line (-) @ Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:30 PM ET
The Nationals rolled to a 10-2 win yesterday and they offer great line value in this spot. Washington is available as a very small favorite here because Anibal Sanchez is on the mound. There is reason to believe he will be successful here as Boston is a very downtrodden team right now. They traded away a couple bullpen arms, there are rumors about some of their big name players not being around much longer, and they are simply having an awful season. Even at home the Red Sox are a horrible 4-11 this season while the Nats are a respectable 6-4 on the road this year. Also, the Red Sox starter in this one is likely to get roughed up again. Chris Mazza gets the start and he got rocked for 4 runs on 8 hits in just 3 innings in his first (and only) start this season. Mazza now has a 5.73 ERA at the MLB level and opponents are hitting .337 against him. The Nationals Sanchez has overall sub-par numbers so far this season but this is a guy whom entered this season with a combined 3.39 ERA that past two seasons combined! That is over 55 games (54 starts) and shows what Sanchez is capable of. Also, he showed signs in his last start that he is back on track for this season. Sanchez allowed just one solo homer among 5 hits in a solid 7-inning start in which that was the only run he gave up. Facing a fading Red Sox team and with his teammates bats confident off the 10-run outburst yesterday, Sanchez and the Nats roll here. Per our computer math model, a road rout expected. Bet the Washington Nationals on the money line in early evening action Saturday.
|
08-29-20 |
Magic +13.5 v. Bucks |
Top |
104-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic +13.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 3:30 PM ET - Can the Magic win this game today? Sure, but will they, no. They can however cover the spread with the generous number. After winning Game #1 the Magic have been beaten by the Bucks by 15, 14 and 15 points. In the last game of this series the Bucks won by 15-points but needed to outscore the Magic by 12 in the 4th quarter. Milwaukee had the best overall average margin of victory this season at +10.1PPG which is a tremendous number, but it is still not enough to cover this spread. In the eight Bubble “regular” season games the Bucks average point differential was 0.3PPG and in this series their MOV is 8PPG. Orlando had a negative point differential of minus -1PPG and only 14 of their 43 losses this season have been by 15 or more points. The Bucks haven’t been great as a double-digit favorite this season with an 18-19 ATS record and given the circumstances they could be resting starters late in this game which would make for a potential back-door cover. Grab the points with Orlando.
|
08-28-20 |
Braves v. Phillies -134 |
Top |
4-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Zack Wheeler has been tremendous in the starting rotation for the Phillies this season. He is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA on the season and he also had a great start against the Braves when he faced them. Wheeler allowed just 2 earned runs on only 5 hits while striking out 8 in 7 innings of work. Conversely, the starter for the Braves in this one may not be too happy about facing the Phillies. Robbie Erlin has allowed 4 homers in 6 and 2 / 3 innings against Philadelphia this season. Erlin is with his 3rd team in two seasons! Last year he had a 5.37 ERA with the Padres and opponents hit .312 against him. This season he started out with the Pirates and then was released. Now he is with the Braves and has a 5.14 combined ERA this season. Big starting pitching edge for the Phillies here and they are building confidence thanks to a 3-game winning streak. Though their bullpen is still certainly not a strength, Wheeler has pitched at least 7 innings in 3 of his 5 starts this season so the bullpen should not be needed too much in this one. Also, Philadelphia has improved its bullpen with recent trades. Those new arms will be paying dividends as time goes on. Also, the Braves have won their last two games overall and their last two road games but that was preceded by a stretch that saw Atlanta go 2-7 in 9 road games! The Phillies have won 3 straight overall and 3 straight home games. Philadelphia is only 2 games back of the Braves in the loss column and this is a fantastic opportunity for the Phillies to gain ground on Atlanta. With Wheeler besting Erlin plus the home/road dichotomy factor, look for the Phillies to do just that tonight. Per our computer math model, a home blowout expected. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Friday.
|
08-26-20 |
Lightning -102 v. Bruins |
Top |
7-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (+) over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 8 PM ET
The Lightning got their wake up call in game one of this series after falling behind 3-0 in that game. Since then they have outscored the Bruins by a count of 6-3. In their game two overtime win by a final of 4-3, the Bolts scored 4 even strength goals while the Bruins scored just 2 even strength goals. Boston also had just 25 shots on goal while Tampa Bay had 40 shots on goal. Keep in mind the Lightning also outshot the Bruins in game one and the Bruins had a power play goal in that game as well. The point is that the Lightning have been the much better team in 5 on 5 hockey and this has been particularly true ever since the first period of game one. Tampa Bay has outshot the Bruins by 26 shots on goal starting with the second period of game one. Boston would bully the Lightning in the past but the Bolts are now built much better for playoff hockey and that showed in game two. They have more physicality now and the resiliency of Tampa Bay was on full display in the evening of this series with the game two win. The ultra impressive effort in overtime gives them a ton of momentum for this Game 3 match-up. Bet the Tampa Bay Lightning on the money line in evening action Wednesday.
|
08-26-20 |
Cubs v. Tigers OVER 10.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
On the one hand Jonathan Schoop hit a grand slam for the Tigers last night. On the other hand, the rest of the night these two teams combined to go 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position. For the most part it was a game that lacked clutch hitting and that is why it fell just short of the O/U of 9 runs as the game ended with a total of 8 runs scored. Look for tonight's match-up, featuring two struggling starting pitchers, to make up for last night's shortfall. Certainly the Cubs should bounce back after scoring just one run last night. They'll take advantage of facing a struggling Michael Fulmer. The Tigers right hander has not lasted more than 3 innings in any of his 4 starts. Not only do the short outings bring a bad Detroit bullpen into play, Fulmer generally has been rocked by the time he exits his start. One of the four was a decent outing but in the other three Fulmer allowed 12 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings. The Tigers also will be teeing off at the plate tonight! Chicago is starting Jon Lester. The veteran southpaw just can't locate his cutter in recent starts and, lacking an overpowering fastball, the inability to locate his breaking pitches is a major problem. How major? Lester has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. The Cubs have allowed at least 7 runs in each of their last 4 losses. The Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 wins that were 9 inning games (teams playing 7 inning games in double headers this season). That is another reason we're expecting for a lot of runs in this one either way. Per our computer math model, the winner is tough to call in this match-up but the fact that plenty of runs will be scored is not a tough call! Look for at least 11 in this one per our computer math model. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Wednesday.
|
08-25-20 |
Canucks v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Tuesday at 9:45 PM ET
Game 1 stayed just under the total as Vegas erupted for 5 goals but Vancouver was uncharacteristically held to a goose egg. 9 of the last 11 times the Canucks have been shutout or held to just one goal in a game, they have scored 3 or more goals in their next game. We need 6 goals here and the Golden Knights, prior to this series, had seen 5 of their 8 games in the bubble in Edmonton total 7 or more goals. The Canucks entered this series having seen 5 of their last 7 games total 7 or more goals. Not surprisingly given the above, our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here. Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 2 of its 9 games in the bubble. The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 3 of their 10 games in the bubble. There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver is going to be a lot for the Knights to deal with. The Canucks undoubtedly will make adjustments here to increase the quality of their scoring chances in Game 2. The expectation Tuesday is that both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often. Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up. This one is likely to play out similar to the first two games of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one saw the Stars and Avalanche combine for an average of 7.5 goals per game thus far. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Tuesday
|
08-25-20 |
Mariners v. Padres UNDER 8 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET
Chris Paddack starts for the Padres here. The right-hander has been phenomenal in his home starts. Last season Paddack went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and a .188 BAA at Petco Park. This year, in his 2nd MLB season, Paddack has a 2.66 ERA in his 4 home starts and has held opponents to a .212 batting average. The Mariners, being an AL team, don't have much familiarity with him and the hitters that do are a combined 6 for 31 against Paddack in his career. Seattle starts Marco Gonzales here. The Mariners southpaw has been fantastic in 3 of his last 4 starts. Gonzales has allowed just 4 earned runs on only 11 hits in 20 and 1 / 3 innings spanning those 3 outings. The Padres lineup has not faced him other than Dee Gordon and he is 0 for 3 in his career against him. Big edges for the pitchers in this one. Seattle is hitting .224 this season which ranks them 26th in the majors out of 30 teams. The Padres have been hitting better and are on a 7-game winning streak but their numbers are a bit skewed too. Their 5 runs in closing out their most recent series came on just 6 hits. In the opener of that series they were held to just 4 runs. Prior to that series San Diego had a couple of 10th inning victories including one that was one on a 10th inning grand slam after they managed just 2 runs through the first 9 innings. Considering all of those factors and the lack of familiarity with Gonzales and much of the Mariners bullpen arms, the Padres will struggle at the plate here and the Mariners will struggle with Paddack as his home dominance continues. Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Tuesday.
|
08-25-20 |
Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 |
Top |
111-154 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET The Clippers are off of a poor showing and a last second loss in Game 4 to the Mavs and are now tied 2-2 in this first round series. NOBODY has been better than the Clippers when coming off a loss this season with a 21-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). The Mavericks have played well in the series and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. His buzzer beating step back 3-pointer is only the start of his legendary status in the NBA for years to come. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 36% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 9 of their last ten when coming off a loss. We are betting Paul George finally shows up and Kawhi Leonard shoulders the burden in this crucial game for the franchise.
|
08-24-20 |
Stars v. Avalanche -143 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-143 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 9:45 PM ET
Opportunities to take a very good team off an ugly loss are generally few and far between and so when that opportunity arises you want to take full advantage. This is one of those cases as the Avalanche are absolutely one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year but came out flat in Game One of this series and the Stars blitzed them early and Colorado never fully recovered in that game. They also saw goalie Philipp Grubauer suffer a leg injury and he is expected to miss some time now. That is part of what is impacting this line but Pavel Francouz now gets the call between the pipes and he was excellent this season (21-7 with a .923 save percentage). Also, in his first two starts of this post-season he has allowed a total of just 2 goals in 2 games. One of those starts was in the round robin against this Dallas team and he shut out the Stars in a 4-0 Avalanche win! Backing up Grubauer is a veteran in Michael Hutchinson so we are comfortable with the Avs goal-tending situation entering this game. The Stars are still without Ben Bishop so it has been Anton Khudobin between the pipes. He has allowed 3 or more goals in 5 of his 8 post-season appearances. He is a solid goalie but the Avalanche have scored 7 goals on 71 shots against him in this post-season (he was on the wrong end of the aforementioned 4-0 round robin game). The Avalanche have now lost 3 games in the Edmonton bubble. After the first two losses they responded with a win each time and those two victories came by a combined score of 10 to 1. The loss to the Stars in Game 1 of this series will actually prove to be a good thing for Colorado as it is the wake up call they needed to know that things will not come easy in the post-season. While only about half the players "showed up" in the assessment by their head coach in Game 1, you can expect "all hands on deck" for a very motivated Avs team that can't wait to get back on the ice to make up for Saturday's poor effort. There is excellent line value with the Avalanche here as a moderately priced favorite after the line moved from the -160 range to as low as -140 this morning. The fact is that the Stars are getting a little too much respect at this point! We'll take advantage and grab the value...lay it! ASA TOP PLAY 10* Colorado Avalanche on the money line in late night action Monday.
|
08-24-20 |
Pacers v. Heat -6 |
Top |
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -6 over Indiana Pacers, 6:30PM ET Sometimes when it looks like two even teams on paper and all the stats are equal, but one team continues to win, it is a match up issue. That is clearly the case in this series as the Heat have beaten the Pacers three straight and four of five in the Bubble. The only game the Pacers won was a throw away game as the seedings were set. Miami has a +10PPG margin in the three wins and we cannot imagine them not winning again by double-digits in this elimination game. Going back before the break the Heat are 6-1 SU this season against the Pacers, covering five of the seven. Miami holds edges in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in this series and have gotten balanced scoring throughout this first round match up. In Game #3 the Heat had four players score 20+ points, six in double-digits. Indiana doesn’t have as many scoring options as Miami and just can’t keep pace with the Heat. If it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. Heat win again.
|
08-24-20 |
Blue Jays v. Rays -1.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 3:10 PM ET
The red hot Rays have won 13 of 15 games. The Jays got 2 runs in the top of the 8th to make it a 2nd straight 1-run win for the Rays in this series. But prior to that, 7 of the Rays last 8 wins had been decided by a margin of 2 or more runs. We are anticipating a blowout type win here that is similar to the types of wins in that 8 game stretch which had an average margin of victory of 4 runs per game. Indeed, Tampa Bay's lineup has improved as the season has gone on and they continue to get good pitching. Blake Snell gets the start here for the Rays and he is 2-0 in his 3 August starts and has held opponents to a .178 batting average this month. The left-hander is battling back from a disappointing 2019 season and showing signs of the form that saw him go 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA in 2018! Coincidentally Snell held opponents to a .178 batting average that season. Look for his August dominance to continue here. The Jays, prior to this series, had 11 losses on the year and 8 of those came by a multiple run margin. Toronto sends Tanner Roark to the hill for this one. The veteran right-hander is struggling this month. Roark allowed 7 earned runs in 7 innings in his first two August starts. He then followed that up by allowing 9 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. Roark allowed just 2 runs (1 earned) in that start but had to escape some big jams. He won't be so fortunate the way these Rays are swinging the sticks right now and they get him into trouble early and, unlike the Orioles against Roark, they will cash in on those scoring chances! The Rays are averaging 6.3 runs per game their last 13 games. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in afternoon action Monday.
|
08-23-20 |
Canucks v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Vegas Golden Knights versus Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:30 PM ET
We need 6 goals here and the Golden Knights have seen 5 of their 8 games in the bubble in Edmonton total 7 or more goals. The Canucks have seen 5 of their last 7 games total 7 or more goals. Not surprisingly given the above, our computer math model is forecasting a 4-3 game here. Vegas just continues to pile up goals and has scored at least 3 goals in all but 2 of its 8 games in the bubble. The Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in all but 2 of their 9 games in the bubble. There is so much talent in terms of scorers in this series and we give the experience edge to Vegas of course but the young and speedy talent of Vancouver is going to be a handful for the Knights to deal with. In other words, both teams will be successful in testing the other teams' goalie early and often in this contest. Look for an exciting game with a lot of great looks at the net and potential for breakaways with all the speed on the ice for this one and how these teams match up. This one is likely to play out similar to Game 1 of the other 2nd round match-up in the West and that one saw the Stars and Avalanche combine for 8 goals last night. Bet the OVER in Vegas in NHL late night action Sunday
|
08-23-20 |
Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
127-129 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +3.5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET If you’ve been following ASA for any length of time then you know we are numbers bettors not teams bettors which has us on Denver here today. With no home court advantage and all the games being played on a neutral court the lines shouldn’t fluctuate too much from game to game but this series has seen a significant move. The Nuggets were favored by -4.5 points in Game 1 of this series but are now a 3-point dog here. That’s a huge swing in value and has us on Denver here. The Nuggets were blown out in Game 3 and now trail 1-2 in this series which makes this a desperate situation for Denver. Denver has been fantastic when coming off a loss this season with a 19-9 SU record and are 39-23 SU in that role the past two years. Since the restart the Jazz have an average point differential of minus -3.1PPG which is barely better than the Nuggets -4.8PPG and clearly not a big enough separation to cover this spread. The Dog has covered 4 of the last six in this rivalry. Grab the points!
|
08-23-20 |
Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
The Red Sox team ERA of 5.89 is only ahead of one of the 30 teams in MLB! Also, the Orioles 4.89 team ERA ranks them in the bottom third of the majors as well! Each of these teams has struggled with their pitching this season and Boston (now in sell mode) already traded away a pair of bullpen arms to the Phillies. The starting pitching match-up here also screams "over" which is why this total is so high too. Yes a 10.5 is a big number but our computer math model projects this game ending with more than a dozen runs. The Red Sox start Zack Godley. Opponents are hitting .333 against Godley this season and he is still seeking his first win. In 5 games (4 starts) Godley has a 6.87 ERA. Last season Godley registered a 5.97 ERA and this is the part of the reason he is now with his 3rd team in 2 seasons! The fact is the Red Sox are desperate for pitching and the Orioles are ranked 5th in the majors with a .453 slugging percentage and should crush Godley and the Boston bullpen today. Baltimore is starting Wade LeBlanc in this one. The veteran lefty has struggled in 4 of his 5 starts this season and that includes his season opening effort against the Red Sox. LeBlanc has a 7.89 ERA on the season and the Red Sox have a number of hitters in their lineup who have hit him hard in their career meetings. More of the same is expected here and this one is forecast to turn into a back and forth high-scoring affair with both teams turning to questionable bullpen arms early in this one after both starters get hit hard! Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-22-20 |
Tigers v. Indians OVER 9.5 |
Top |
1-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
The Indians had won 6 straight games before yesterday's 10-5 loss to the Tigers. Cleveland has averaged scoring nearly 6 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. Neither one of these teams is known for strong production at the plate this season but the fact is that they are both trending in a positive direction in that regard. Detroit has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 11 games and should enjoy success Saturday against a rookie making his MLB debut. Not only is this the MLB debut for Triston McKenzie, he has never pitched above the AA level in the minors so this is a big jump for him. Yesterday's total of 15 runs marked the 6th time in the Tigers last 10 games that their game totaled a dozen or more runs. Of course the fact that Detroit has a 5.99 ERA on the season (dead last in the majors) certainly factors into that and it is a weak bullpen backing up a struggling starting pitcher for this one. The Tigers send Matthew Boyd to the mound and the southpaw is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA this season. He has been having trouble with allowing too many homers and a visit to Cleveland is unlikely to help him. Boyd allowed a total of 5 homers in his 2 starts at Progressive Field last season. Per our computer math model, more of the same is on tap this evening as this one soars over the total. Bet the OVER in the Cleveland Indians game in early evening action Saturday
|
08-22-20 |
Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 |
Top |
121-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Under 226 Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic, 1PM ET The Magic have done a great job controlling the tempo or pace in the first two games as it is their only option to win games against the Bucks. In the two games the combined field goal attempts for both teams is 179 and 178 which is barely above league average of 177. Let us not forget the Bucks are the fastest paced team in the league at 105.1 possessions per game while the Magic are 25th at 98.6. In this series the Magic came out in Game 1 and filled it up with 122 points on 49% shooting from the field overall, 39% from 3-point range and 95% from the stripe. In Game #2 the Bucks top rated defensive efficiency stepped up and limited the Magic to just 35% shooting from the field and 21% from beyond the arc. That was more inline with the Magic’s season stats as they were 27th in the league in team FG% at 44.3% and 23rd in offensive efficiency. In other words, the Magic will struggle to score again here and do their best to slow the tempo. Milwaukee broke out a little in Game 2 but one of the stories of all the Bubble games has been the struggles of the Bucks offense. Milwaukee was 8th best in the league in offensive efficiency this season but drop to 13th of 22 teams that played in the restart. Orlando is a top 10 defensive efficiency unit and match up well with Milwaukee. These two teams have met six times this season and only one (Game 1 when Orlando shot ridiculously well) has ended with more than 226 total points.
|
08-21-20 |
Blues -131 v. Canucks |
Top |
2-6 |
Loss |
-131 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on St Louis Blues Money Line (-) over Vancouver Canucks, Friday at 9:45 PM ET
The Blues blew a 3-1 lead in losing 4-3 to the Canucks on Wednesday. Of course that was a key swing game in the series as they were tied at 2 games apiece entering that one. However, the Blues didn't win the Stanley Cup last season without plenty of resiliency and the core group of that hockey club remains in St Louis. The Blues will be ready to fight back hard in a win or go home situation in Game 6. St Louis had defensive breakdowns and, to an extent, quit skating as well after they got the 3-1 lead. They'll play the full 60 minutes in Game 6 after what happened in Game 5 and their toughness, physicality and experience will pay off for them in staving off elimination. The Canucks are talented but they're still young and, per our computer math model, this is a series that is going to go the full seven games! Lay the small price here. Bet the St Louis Blues on the money line in late night action Friday.
|
08-21-20 |
Clippers -5 v. Mavs |
Top |
130-122 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET All the experts and oddsmakers had the Clippers as one of the three favorites along with the Bucks and Lakers to win it all in 2020 and they were not wrong. This team has been built for a Championship and now they are off a poor showing and a loss in Game 2 to the Mavs. That’s very important for our wager today as the Clippers are the BEST team in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 20-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). Great players respond when their egos have been bruised which will be the case Friday for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard who didn’t expect to be 1-1 in this series right now. The Mavericks played well in the first two games and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 45% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. We haven’t even mentioned the value in the line on this game as the Clippers have dropped a few points from the first two games. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 8 of their last nine when coming off a loss. Easy call with L.A.
|
08-21-20 |
Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:35 PM ET
The Red Sox have a 6.01 team ERA which ranks just above Detroit in the battle for the worst spot in the majors! Of course that is not a battle you want to be in but the Red Sox are simply void of solid pitching this season. Nathan Eovaldi made a great start for them yesterday and that was much needed and is rare. Today the Red Sox are going with a "bullpen game" in terms of the starting pitching and of course that is bad news for a team with a 6.01 ERA on the season! Boston is expected to use Colten Brewer (side note here we do not care who starts for Boston, we like the over no matter who gets the call as the opener). Brewer's first career start saw him take 73 pitches just to get through 2 and 2 / 3 innings and we expect this outing to also be a struggle for him. The Orioles are starting John Means in this one and the southpaw has had a rough start to the 2020 season. His father passed away and he missed time and is dealing with that emotionally. In terms of physical issues, Means had missed time due to arm fatigue and has simply not been right early this season. The Orioles bullpen is honestly not much better than the Red Sox and plus Means is only expected to last about 50 pitches here and then Jorge Lopez will likely be up next. Means has a 10.57 ERA in his 3 starts this season. Lopez is 7-15 with a 5.94 ERA in his career and has struggled this season too. Before struggling at the plate in their past two games, the Orioles had enjoyed an 11-game stretch in which they averaged 6.5 runs per game. Boston has scored at least 6 runs in 3 straight games and, per our computer math model, each team has a strong chance of getting to 6 runs in this one and it flies over the total as a result. Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early evening action Friday
|
08-20-20 |
Stars v. Flames +109 |
Top |
7-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Calgary Flames Money Line (+) over Dallas Stars, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET
It is hard enough to beat a team back to back in the playoffs let alone three straight! That is part of the reasoning here for backing the hungry dog in this spot. The Stars have won 2 straight in the series to now take a 3-2 series lead and this is a win or go home game for the Flames. We expect Calgary to respond accordingly. The Stars haven't had a 3-game winning streak since mid-February and we don't expect that to change here. Dallas wrapped up the regular season on a 6-game losing streak. Also, in the bubble in Edmonton the Stars had lost 4 of the first 6 games before scoring a couple of very tight victories in Games 4 and 5 of this series. The Flames haven't lost 3 straight games since early February and had won 14 of their last 22 games prior to losing back to back tight games to the Stars. The odds favor this series going 7 games and, per our computer math model, the Flames have high probability for an upset win here. Bet the Calgary Flames on the money line in late night action Thursday.
|
08-20-20 |
Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 |
Top |
88-111 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Thurs 9PM ET The Blazers captured Game 1 by 7-points winning 100-93 and now lead the series 1-0 which makes this a must win for the Lakers. The oddsmakers have fallen into the Blazer trap here and have posted a number that reflects public opinion of Portland. The Lakers offense in the Bubble has been horrendous and is showed again in Game 1 of this series when L.A. attempted 18 more field goals in the opener, had 5 more total rebounds and were +12 in offensive boards but still lost. The Lakers shot just 35% against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as Portland ranks 28th on the season in defensive efficiency ratings and has been worse in the Bubble allowing 1.209 points per possession. The Lakers made just 5 of 32 3-pointers in Game 1 and shot just 35% for the game which is drastically lower than their season average of 47.8% which was best in the NBA. In other words, let’s bet what the “norm” is instead of the abnormal results of Game 1. It was apparent to us as we watched the game how deliberate the Blazers were which was not how they played during the regular season (13th in pace of play). Portland was taxed physically and dictated a slower tempo with the Lakers knowing if they could keep it close, they have more playmakers at the end of the game and could steal a win. The fatigue of their pre-playoff run was obvious to us and will play a bigger part in this outcome. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers have not been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 10-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. The Lakers Championship run hangs in the balance, and you can bet LeBron and AD show up here.
|
08-20-20 |
Rangers v. Padres -1.5 |
Top |
7-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: San Diego Padres (-1.5 runs) over Texas Rangers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET
The Rangers have lost 4 straight and are 3-7 on the road this season. The Padres have won 3 straight and are 7-4 at home this season. San Diego is also riding the positive momentum of a huge walk-off win last night that left the Rangers stunned! After tying the game late on a homer the Rangers were able to force extra innings. They then took a 1-run lead in the top of the 10th only to watch the bullpen implode and the Padres won it on a Manny Machado grand slam in the bottom of the 10th! Couple the hot versus not factor and the clubhouse mood for each team (particularly after last night's finish) and you have a great situation to be taking a look at San Diego in this one. The Padres are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason. Not only because of all of the above but also the pitching factor here. Dinelson Lamet has been every bit of a young ace for the Padres. The San Diego right-hander throws plenty of heat and then keeps hitters off-balance with a devastating slider. That is a lethal combo and Lamet has a 1.59 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He has piled up 36 strikeouts in 28 and 1 / 3 innings and opponents are hitting only .152 against him. On the other hand, the Rangers Kyle Gibson is a very hittable pitcher. He has allowed opponents to hit .278 against him so far this season and has allowed high opponents BAA in 3 of the past 4 seasons (.275, .292, .298). Last season Gibson had a 5.45 ERA in night games. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the San Diego Padres -1.5 runs in evening action Thursday.
|
08-19-20 |
Diamondbacks v. A's -1.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
120 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Oakland A's (-1.5 runs) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET
The A's have been one of the best teams in MLB this season but got blasted at Arizona yesterday. Now the series shifts to Oakland and it is payback time tonight. The Diamondbacks are only 5-7 on the road this season. The Athletics are 9-3 at home this season. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has pitched well early this season but, keep in mind, this has been in rather limited action. He has only made 2 road starts and last season on the road he was 6-9 with a 5.42 ERA in his road outings. The A's are starting Jesus Luzardo and he is off his worst start of the young season. We like taking talented quality pitchers off a rough start and he is now back home where the southpaw is undefeated in 4 outings (2 starts) and has compiled a 2.60 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .217 against Luzardo in his home games and he has fanned 17 in 17 innings! The A's were 52-29 at home last season so they are a combined 61-32 in home games the past two seasons combined. The Dbacks have a losing record on the road when combining last season and this season and the A's are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout in this bounce back spot and the best value is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the Oakland A's -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday.
|
08-19-20 |
Hurricanes +135 v. Bruins |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (+) over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 4:00 PM ET
The Hurricanes have been alternating goalies in this post-season and Petr Mrazek is likely to get the start in Game 5. In our opinion he has been the better of the two goalies and James Reimer's poor decision-making that led to the Bruins first goal in Game 4 helped spark the amazing Boston comeback. Carolina was up 2-0 in the third period of Game 4 when all hell broke loose and the Bruins scored 4 straight goals in a span of under 7 minutes! The Hurricanes are now down 3-1 in the series after letting that game slip away but head coach Rod Brind'Amour has strong team chemistry with this hockey club and we know they will be ready to respond in this must win game on Wednesday. The Canes also got good news yesterday as Jordan Staal, their team captain, was able to practice. He had taken a big hit and exited Monday's game but appears fine and ready to go here for this Game 5 must win situation. Factoring all of the above as well as our computer math model and the fact we have a solid underdog price here, we're grabbing the dog in this one! Bet the Carolina Hurricanes on the money line in afternoon action Wednesday.
|
08-19-20 |
Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217 |
Top |
124-105 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA Top Play 10* on: Over 217 Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets, Weds 4PM ET Game 1 between these two teams could not have been much better as had everything a basketball fan wants in a contest. Denver won by 10-points, but it took overtime and was very close throughout. Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell had a monster game with 57-points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists but it wasn’t enough to offset the 36/5/9 put up by Jamal Murray and the 29/10/3 by Jokic for Denver. Of course, for our wager here the overtime period should not be factored into our thinking and influence our Over bet. In Game 1 these two teams combined for 220 total points in regulation which is enough to cash our ticket in Game 2. Since the restart, games involving the Jazz have averaged 230 total points while the Nugget games have averaged 242-points (2 OT games have this numbers slightly inflated). In the regular season these two teams were two of the slower paced teams in the league, but they made up for it by being highly efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. Denver is 5th in the NBA this year in OEFF at 1.131 points per possession while Utah is 10th at 1.124PPP. Both teams shot well in Game 1 but that has been the norm in the Bubble with great sight lines and backdrops for shooters. This number is set below league average and value lies with the Over bet.
|
08-18-20 |
Blazers v. Lakers -5.5 |
Top |
100-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Tues 8PM ET Noise! There has been a lot of noise surrounding the Blazers and their run in the Bubble to make the playoffs. There has also been a lot of talk about how poorly the Lakers have played in the restart and we are betting they’ve heard it and respond here. Let us start with the Blazers who expended a ton of energy to get here and played in several big, emotional games to capture the 8th seed. Damian Lillard has been sensational, and the Blazers offense has put up some impressive numbers in the Bubble but that changes here. The Lakers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rankings in the NBA allowing just 1.063 points per possession. That is significantly better than the Blazers defense that is 28th in the league in D.E.F.F. Much has been made of the Lakers struggle on the offensive end of the floor in the Bubble games as it’s been atrocious but on the entire season they are 11th in offensive efficiency and much better than they’ve showed in these meaningless 8-games which had no bearing on their seeding. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers haven’t been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 9-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. This will be a statement game for the Lakers and we predict a double-digit win.
|
08-18-20 |
Capitals v. Islanders -115 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on New York Islanders Money Line (-) over Washington Capitals, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET
The Islanders took 3 of 4 from the Panthers in the qualifying round to eliminate Florida from the post-season in convincing fashion. In fact, even in the game they lost to the Panthers, the Islanders were the better team. This hockey club has been "in the zone" ever since they got to the bubble it seems. The Islanders are well-coached under Barry Trotz and, of course, this is the same Trotz that led the Capitals to a Stanley Cup Championship season in 2018 when they beat the Golden Knights to win it all. After not being brought back by the Caps, Trotz went to the Islanders. Now he is showing the Capitals how it is done once again and you know he is itching for the sweep here to put an exclamation point on it. We see him getting it as the Islanders have won 6 of 7 post-season games while Washington has won just 1 of 6 games under the bubble in Toronto. The Capitals are a good team and will be giving it their all once again but the Islanders continue to stifle and frustrate them. Not only has Varlamov been great between the pipes but also the Islanders held the Caps to just 20 shots on goal in regulation time of Game 3. Per our computer math model, the Isles finish off the Capitals here. Bet the New York Islanders on the money line in evening action Tuesday.
|
08-18-20 |
Phillies -120 v. Red Sox |
Top |
13-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET
The Red Sox are off a series with their most bitter rivals, the Yankees, and got swept and have now lost 8 straight games. Boston is having a rough start to the season and it won't get any easier here. While the Sox are a very down team and even their body language shows they have clubhouse issues right now, the Phillies are a rejuvenated team and coming off a welcome day off on Monday. Philadelphia has rested bullpen arms now and the team is feeling very good about themselves after sweeping the division rival Mets over the weekend. A key clutch walk-off win seemed to turn this team's fortunes around in the Mets series and Philly keeps it going on Tuesday in Boston per our computer math model. The Red Sox Zack Godley is winless with an 8.16 ERA so far this season. On the other hand, the Phillies Zach Eflin has struck out 15 in his 10 innings of work so far this season and has his sinker working very well again. Eflin has always been known to have great stuff and he seems to be rounding into form nicely for the Phillies and takes on a Red Sox team that is not that familiar with him. That is because this is an AL/NL match-up. But the Phillies lineup does have some hitters with experience (and some good results) against Godley from all his years in the National League prior to going to Boston. This is a classic case of hot versus not in terms of the trending of these two teams and we also would give the pitching edge and situational edge to the Phillies here. Per our computer math model, a road rout expected. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.
|
08-17-20 |
Mavs v. Clippers OVER 230 |
Top |
110-118 |
Loss |
-102 |
29 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: OVER 230 Dallas Mavericks vs. LA Clippers, Monday Aug 17th 9PM ET - We are extremely excited about this bet and expect an easy win by about the 8-minute mark of the 4th quarter. We mentioned this a few bets ago that scoring is up in the Bubble restart compared to the regular season prior to March 11th. The smaller confines offer a “shooters background” and scoring has gone up from 223 total points per game to 230PPG. In other words, we are asking for an average scoring output from these two teams in this setting when we have the 5th (Clippers) and 6th (Mavs) ranked offensive efficiency units in Bubble play squaring off. The Clippers have averaged 118PPG in the Bubble while the Mavs have averaged 123PPG. Granted, the Clippers have the 10th best defensive efficiency numbers in the restart but the Mavs have the 20th out of 22 teams. The Mavs are averaging more possessions per game in the Bubble and the Clippers are 8th in the league in pace of play at 101.5 possessions per game on the season. The Mavs have allowed 126 or more points in 6 of their eight Bubble games and are clearly not known for their defense. These two teams met in the restart and combined for 237 total points which will be on the lower end of today’s scoring. BET OVER!
|
08-17-20 |
Nationals v. Braves OVER 10 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Braves Touki Toussaint is coming off a rough start against the Yankees. He is likely in for another rough one here as he has a history of struggles against the Nationals and that has proven true even when he faces them at home where Toussaint normally pitches better. That being said, and with favorable weather conditions at hitter-friendly Truist Park expected tonight, this game has potential to turn into quite a slug-fest. Toussaint has an 8.59 ERA in his career against the Nationals and has walked 10 in just 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work when facing Washington. Last season against the Nats he gave up 2 homers in 6 and 1 / 3 innings. This season Toussaint had an outing featuring 4 scoreless innings against the Mets. However, in his other 3 outings he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 13 and 1 / 3 innings. Per our computer math model, another rough outing is on tap here for Toussaint. Speaking of rough times ahead, the Nationals are starting Anibal Sanchez here. The right-hander has lost all 3 of his starts and compiled a 9.69 ERA so far this season. He has allowed 5 homers in 13 innings this season. Washington has scored an average of 7 runs per game L7 games. Atlanta is 7-2 in home games this season and has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the 7 victories. Bet the OVER in the Atlanta Braves game in early evening action Monday.
|
08-17-20 |
Avalanche -1.5 v. Coyotes |
Top |
7-1 |
Win
|
150 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Arizona Coyotes, Monday at 5:30 PM ET
The Avalanche are nearly a $2.00 favorite on the money line here so the value, if you want to play Colorado (like we do!) in this one, is definitely with utilizing the puck line. By laying the 1.5 goals with the Avs, you can get a plus money return in the +150 range. We look for a dominating win from Colorado here. They outshot the Coyotes 51 to 21 in Game 3 but ended up on the wrong end of a 4-2 final. Game 2 was a 3-2 Avalanche win that easily could have ended 4-2 and Game 1 was a 3-0 Avs win. The point is that expecting this game to end up decided by a margin of 2 or more goals is certainly not expecting too much and we love the big plus money being offered with one of the best teams in the NHL looking to bounce back off a loss. Again, the Avalanche dominated that game but fell short on the scoreboard. In Monday's Game 4 it is payback time. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a fantastic return, currently in +150 range) with Colorado is the value play here.
|
08-16-20 |
Blues -124 v. Canucks |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on St Louis Blues Money Line (-) over Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:30 PM ET
The Blues are the defending Stanley Cup Champions but are down 0-2 in this series. We are expecting a huge response from St Louis on Sunday night. The Blues have actually outshot the Canucks by a combined margin of 68 to 47 in the first two games of this series. The problem has been that Vancouver has actually scored 3 special teams goals in EACH game! The Blues simply must stay out of the penalty box (and be better on the penalty kill as needed) and this is a Cup winning team that certainly knows that fact. Additionally, St Louis might switch to goalie Jake Allen for this one. He looked fantastic in his lone appearance in this post-season when he faced the Stars in the round robin last week and nearly got a shutout in the eventual 2-1 shootout loss. The fact is that Blues netminder Jordan Binnington wasn't really to blame for the OT loss in Game 2 and certainly the St Louis net is in good shape whether it is Binnington or Allen between the pipes. Allen would give the Blues a spark here but they'll be "sparking" either way in our opinion. They had a great chance to win Game 2 but fell just short. Give Canucks credit as they have been playing very well and Bo Harvat has been playing fantastic hockey. However, the gritty Blues are trending the right direction and played a very strong game on Friday. With another strong game on Sunday, this time they will be rewarded for their efforts. Keep in mind the first game between these teams was tied at 2 heading to the third period and the second game went into overtime. The Blues have played better than what they have to show for it and they know it. They will simply be relentless in Game 3 here and refuse to be denied. Look for the defending Stanley Cup Champions to put it all together tonight and get right back into this series. There is excellent line value with the Blues here as a small favorite as the Canucks are getting a little too much respect at this point! We'll take it and grab the value...lay it! ASA TOP PLAY 10* St Louis Blues on the money line in late night action Sunday.
|
08-16-20 |
Dodgers v. Angels OVER 10 |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
The Angels Julio Teheran is struggling early this season (13.50 ERA) and now faces a Dodgers team whose .449 slugging percentage ranks 4th in the majors! The Dodgers are heating up at the plate too as they have won 4 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in those victories. They will need all the runs they can get in this one because our computer math model is also forecasting their starter, Dustin May, to struggle in this one. May has a low ERA early this season but certainly has been far from unhittable. What we like most about this match-up is the Angels most dangerous hitters are powerful right-handed sticks like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Coupled with the fact the Angels will likely have 5 of their other 7 sticks stepping in on the left-handed side of the plate and you have the makings of a rough start for May. Last season he had a 9.53 ERA against lefties and they hit .346 against him! This season so far lefties are hitting .306 against May. The Angels have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their past 5 games and 4 of those 5 games ended with a game total of 11 or more runs being scored. Our computer math model is forecasting that this one will too and we look for another high-scoring game at Angel Stadium. Bet the OVER in the LA Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.
|
08-15-20 |
Lightning v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: 5 goals +120 in Columbus Blue Jackets versus Tampa Bay Lightning, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET
We were hoping to see 5.5 come up on this total but it still a great value at under 5 and plus money. These teams continue to play "grudge match" games and we just don't see either team having a breakout game here. These teams even played a 5 OT marathon in Game 1 and so there have been many periods without goals throughout this series in just the first two games alone. The fact is that none of Tampa Bay's 5 games played under the bubble in Toronto have totaled more than 5 goals. The Blue Jackets, in regulation time of their games, have averaged scoring only 2.2 goals per game and are allowing just 1.7 goals per game. Both clubs are getting fantastic goaltending and Columbus (3-1 winners in Game 2) knows they must continue to force the Bolts to play their style and the Blue Jackets love the physical, tight, low-scoring games. With such a strong defensive pairing in Zach Werenski and Seth Jones, look for more of the same here on Saturday. Bet the UNDER in Columbus in NHL evening action Saturday
|
08-15-20 |
Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 233 |
Top |
122-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 233 Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trailblazers, Saturday 2:30PM ET These same two teams met in the first game of the Bubble action and Vegas set a Total on that contest of 224 and now has a number that is 8.5-points more? That is an over-reaction to the Blazers scoring of late and offers us some tremendous value with an Under bet here. Portland expended a ton of energy to get to the 8th seed in the West and we cannot help but wonder how much they have emotionally and physically for this game. The Blazers defense has been horrendous in the Bubble games, but they have also faced 6 offenses that rank in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. Four of the teams they faced are top 9 in the NBA in points per game scoring, so it is understandable their defense wasn’t great in the restart. Memphis has played solid defense in the Bubble allowing just 1.088 points per possession which is 6th best in the restart games. But the Grizzlies have struggled to score in the Bubble with the 17th worst (out of 22) offensive efficiency numbers. Memphis failed to reach 100-points in two games in the restart and scored 107 or less in half of their Bubble games. We can’t ignore the value in this Over/Under and will have to bet UNDER!
|
08-14-20 |
76ers v. Rockets UNDER 230.5 |
Top |
134-96 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 230.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs. Houston Rockets, 9PM ET These two teams are locked into their playoff position and will rest all their key players here to stay healthy for a deep post-season run. The 76ers will face the Celtics in the opening round next week while the Rockets get the OKC Thunder. In this meaningless game we don’t expect to see the starters for either team which means the scoring has to come from the reserves. Houston averages 118PP on the season but will be without Russell Westbrook here (injured) and his 27.2PPG and 7 assists per game. We would be shocked to see Harden here and his 34PPG so where will the Rockets scoring come from. Houston’s bench is the 28th lowest scoring unit in the NBA this season, ahead of only Boston and Portland. The Rockets scoring is down in the Bubble as their average points per possession has dipped from 1.132PPP to 1.081PPP. Houston has scored 105 or less points in 3 of their last five games and their scoring average would be lower yet in the Bubble if it were not for a 153-scoring overtime output in the restart opener. Houston defense has been better though as they have the second-best defensive efficiency rating in Bubble games which is up from 11th during the regular season. Philly is in the same boat here as the Rockets with Ben Simmons out for the playoffs and Embiid beat up so why jeopardize having him on the floor tonight. The 76ers lack production from their bench with the 26th lowest scoring unit in the NBA. The Sixers defense gave up over 124PPG in five of their seven Bubble games but three of those contests came against 3 of the four highest scoring teams in the Bubble. Teams have been scoring more in the Bubble than during the regular season, but we can’t see these two benches putting up 230 or more combined points. BET UNDER!
|
08-14-20 |
Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
The Braves are off a 6-3 loss to the Yankees Wednesday but they had 11 hits in that game. Atlanta entered that game having averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their 4 prior games and 2 of those games were only 7 innings long because the Braves played a double-header during this stretch. The point is that the Braves have been swinging the bats quite well. The Marlins also have enjoyed some recent success at the plate. Overall, Miami has been a big surprise early this season and they are 8-4 on the year which makes this a big showdown in the NL East. The Marlins have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 8 victories this season and have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their past 6 games. Getting each team to 4 runs in this game guarantees us a winning ticket with this total set at 8.5 runs. We like our chances in that regard as Miami will have plenty of confidence at the plate in their home stadium and off a 14-11 win over Toronto on Wednesday. The Braves .437 slugging percentage ranks them 8th in the majors out of 30 teams. Miami starter Pablo Lopez is winless in his 5 career starts against Atlanta. The Braves start Kyle Wright in this one and he is now 0-5 with a 7.41 ERA in his 14 career appearances (7 starts) at the MLB level. He gave up 2 homers in his lone career start against the Marlins and Miami will bring momentum into this one from the successful finish to the series with the Blue Jays. The Marlins also are thrilled to finally be able to play a game at home in Miami after being away for so long due to the Covid-19 situation. Bet the OVER in the Miami Marlins game in early evening action Friday.
|
08-14-20 |
Coyotes v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Avalanche versus Arizona Coyotes, Friday at 2 PM ET
Under the bubble in Edmonton the Coyotes scored well when they faced the Oilers. In fact, dating back to the regular season, Arizona entered this series against the Avalanche having seen 7 of their last 10 games total at least 6 goals. The Coyotes are facing the Avs on the same sheet of ice on which they faced the Oilers of course. But the problem for Arizona is they were "back on their heels" in game 1 against Colorado and were not aggressive at all. The Coyotes mustered only 14 shots on goal for the game as a result. Of course that won't cut it and they are well aware of that. Look for Arizona to open things up a bit here in game two. The Coyotes don't have a choice. They know the Avalanche have so much firepower and skate so well and Arizona has to try and match them and just continue to trust Darcy Keumper in goal. We see this series as a similar match-up to the Vegas/Chicago match-up. In that one in game 1 the Blackhawks weren't aggressive enough and came out and lost a low-scoring game. Sure enough, yesterday's game 2, though the Hawks still lost, played out much differently as the game had 6 goals (tied 3-3) through the first two periods. Look for a similar result here and our computer simulation report is forecasting at least 6 goals to be scored in this one. Bet the OVER in Colorado in NHL afternoon action Friday
|
08-13-20 |
Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 |
Top |
11-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET
The Phillies have struggled early this season but the Orioles are certainly no powerhouse and this is the ideal situation to back the home team and expect a rout. Philadelphia is nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but on the run line we get them down to a price in the pick'em range and there is plenty of support for expecting a win by 2 or more runs here. 4 of the Phillies 5 wins this season have come by a margin of 4 or more runs! When they win they generally win big. Also, Philadelphia has lost each of the last two games against Baltimore and the Phillies are 2-0 this season when they enter a game off back to back losses and each of the 2 wins came by a blowout margin. Jake Arrieta has been a stronger starter at home than on the road since coming to the Phillies and he is healthy again and coming off a dominating performance against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park. He'll be opposed by Thomas Eshelman who, though drafted by the Astros, actually came up through the Phillies farm system. But in 2018 at AAA Lehigh Valley he went 2-13 with a 5.84 ERA. In his major league appearances (12 games, 5 starts) Eshelman has a 6.02 ERA. The way Arrieta is dealing right now and the way Eshelman has struggled, as well as the situational factors here, this one sets up to be all Phillies! Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday.
|
08-13-20 |
Mavs v. Suns -7 |
Top |
102-128 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Phoenix Suns -7 over Dallas Mavericks, 4PM ET How about the swing on the line in this matchup as these same two teams met earlier in the Bubble and the Mavericks were a 6-point favorite but are now a 7-point dog. But the situation for both teams is drastically different at this point in time as the Mavs are locked into the 7th seed and Phoenix still has a shot to get in. To put this as delicately as possible, Dallas would be stupid to play their Superstars here or other starters as health is key to make a long playoff run. We don’t expect to see Doncic or Porzingis for the Mavs against this red-hot Suns team Thursday. Phoenix is 7-0 in the Bubble and have played incredible basketball in the restart with Devon Booker leading the way. Phoenix has an average point differential of +11.3PPG in the Bubble which is the best overall number in the league and has won five of their seven games by 7 or more points. Are we betting a bad line here? No given the circumstances.
|
08-12-20 |
Cubs v. Indians -116 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-116 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Cleveland Indians Money Line (-) vs Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET
Look for the Indians to bounce right back from yesterday's 7-1 home loss. The Cubs start Kyle Hendricks here and his road struggles have continued. Last season he was great at Wrigley Field but went 5-8 with a 5.02 ERA away from home. Opponents hit .290 against Hendricks when he was on the road. This season he has made 3 starts and the home outings went fine but his road outing saw him allow 6 earned runs in just 4 and 1 / 3 innings. The Indians had won 5 of 6 games prior to yesterday's loss and Cleveland has averaged scoring 8.3 runs per game in their last 3 victories. The offense is showing some life and their bullpen has been among the best in the majors early this season. Additionally they hand the ball to a starter in great current form for this one. Carlos Carrasco gets the call here and the same Reds team that just clobbered Hendricks when they faced him was absolutely handcuffed by Carrasco. He held them to 1 hit in 6 innings while striking out 8. Carrasco dealt with injury issues last season but he has put all that behind him and looks like the same pitcher that went 46-24 with a 3.32 ERA from 2016 to 2018. The Cubs are off to a great start this season but have been fortunate with a home-heavy schedule. Chicago is known for being much better at home than on the road. The Cubs entered last night's contest at Cleveland having gone 1-2 in their 3 most recent road games and Chicago was outscored 25-9 in those 2 losses. The Indians respond after last night's loss and their pitching edge and home field edge lead the way in this one. Indians were 17 games over .500 at home last season while the Cubs were 15 games under .500 in road games last season. Per our computer math model, this situation is offering tremendous line value considering all of the above factors. The forecast here is a home rout. Bet the Cleveland Indians on the money line for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Wednesday.
|
08-12-20 |
Pacers v. Rockets -8 |
Top |
108-104 |
Loss |
-104 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -8 over Indiana Pacers, 4PM ET You know the old saying, “when something looks to good to be true, it isn’t”. That’s the case with this line on the Rockets vs. Pacers game as the line is much higher than it should be and is attracting public money on Indiana. In true contrarian fashion we will bet opposite and play on the Rockets. We feel the Rockets desperately want to hold on to the 4 or 5 seed and avoid the two Los Angeles teams and the red-hot Nuggets in the first round. A win here essentially locks up the 4/5 seed for Houston. The Rockets played yesterday and were embarrassed by the Spurs with James Harden on the bench. The NBA’s leading scorer is expected to suit up today for the Rockets and can literally carry this team like he’s done so often in the past. The Pacers have several starters listed as doubtful today with Turner, Oladipo, Brogdon questionable and TJ Warren listed as out. That tells us the Pacers aren’t as interested in this game as they are Friday’s against the Miami Heat who they will likely face in the first round of the Playoffs. The Rockets hold slight advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the Bubble games and will squeak out a double-digit win here.
|
08-12-20 |
Islanders +119 v. Capitals |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
119 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on New York Islanders Money Line (+) over Washington Capitals, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET
We'll take the teacher over the pupil in this one. The Islanders are coached by Barry Trotz. He led the Capitals to the Stanley Cup Championship two years ago. Then that summer Washington wouldn't give him the contract he wanted (and, arguably) had earned via leading the Caps to win it all! Trotz ended up with the Islanders and his assistant, Todd Rierden, is now the Capitals coach. The Islanders are off a fantastic effort against the Panthers in which they dominated Florida throughout much of the series which lasted only 4 games. New York plays a defensive style that stifles and frustrates opponents and that will be the key again here. The Capitals were not very impressive in their level of play in the round robin that preceded this series for them. Trotz certainly knows many of the Washington players and their tendencies very well and he is a very good coach. Additionally, the Islanders have won 6 of the last 8 playoff series between these teams but lost the most recent one between these teams in 2015. Per our computer math model, payback begins here with a Game One upset win for the underdog in this one. ASA PLAY New York Islanders on the money line in afternoon action Wednesday.
|
08-11-20 |
Nationals v. Mets OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Nationals Max Scherzer left his last start, also against the Mets, after just 1 inning due to tightness in a hamstring. Certainly Scherzer is a great pitcher but that is when he is healthy. He is not 100% and the hamstring is on his mind. This is a road start for him against a division rival that is familiar with him. The Mets lost yesterday's game to Washington by a final score of 16-4 and New York's last 7 home games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game. In this one we get an O/U of only 8.5 runs to work with as Scherzer's long-term reputation carries weight of course and keeps this total lower than it should be per our computer math model. Rick Porcello gets the start for the Mets here and is off of a strong start against the Nationals but he was fortunate as he gave up a lot of hard contact. Of course hard contact and Porcello go hand in hand! Prior to his start against Washington, Porcello was 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in his first two starts this season. He entered this season off a 14-12 year last season but that was thanks to run support as Porcello had a 5.52 ERA on the campaign! The Nationals exploded for 16 runs on 17 hits in yesterday's big win and will be very confident at the plate this evening as a result of yesterday's success plus the fact they just faced Porcello last week. Bet the OVER in the New York Mets game in early evening action Tuesday.
|
08-11-20 |
Flames +101 v. Stars |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
101 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Calgary Flames Money Line (+) over Dallas Stars, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET
The Stars scored a total of only 4 goals in regulation time of their 3 games in the round robin. This is a Dallas team that has just one win in its last nine games and that win came in the shootout Sunday against St Louis. The Stars only sent it to the shootout courtesy of a very late goal with just a minute left in the game. The last win in regulation time for Dallas came all the way back on February 25th. Calgary comes into this game surging and already in playoff mode as, while the Stars were playing round robin games, the Flames were playing in a best of five qualifying round series against Winnipeg. Not only did Calgary close out the Jets in 4 games, they scored an average of 4 goals per game! Yes, the Flames have averaged 4 goals per game since action resumed while the Stars have totaled only 4 goals since action resumed. Big difference and, per our computer math model, the Flames skill in the offensive zone proves to be the difference maker as they take Game One of this series. ASA PLAY 10* Calgary Flames on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.
|
08-11-20 |
Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 233.5 |
Top |
105-123 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 233.5 Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2PM ET We like the Under in this day game between these two Texas rivals. Both have incentive to play here with the Rockets jockeying for seeding position and the Spurs fighting for a chance to get into the post-season for the 23rd straight year. In the Bubble games the Rockets defense has been much better than the regular season version as they have allowed just 1.076 points per possession in their five Bubble games compared to 1.100PPP they give up on the season. On the year the Rockets have been average in effective field goal percentage defense but in their last three games they are allowing just 49% EFG% shooting which is second best in the NBA over that 3-game span. The Rockets have given up 110, 97 and 112 points in their last three games. We do not see the Rockets putting up huge offensive numbers here without James Harden or Daniel House Jr. in the lineup. San Antonio is fighting for the 8th or 9th seed in the West and are essentially in a must win situation. That is a lot of pressure for a young team without their best offensive player LaMarcus Aldridge who did not come to the Bubble. San Antonio has some inflated scoring and defensive numbers in the Bubble with a pair of exceedingly high scoring games against Denver and Philly which has skewed this number higher than it should be. These two teams met twice in December and produced 216 and 268 total points. The 268-point game was an OT thriller and the two teams produced 38-points so in reality that game would have finished with less total points than today’s Total set by Vegas. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last nine meetings and we predict another Under here.
|
08-10-20 |
A's v. Angels +120 |
Top |
9-10 |
Win
|
120 |
13 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's, Monday at 9:40 PM ET
One of the most common betting strategies in baseball is to ride streaks. In that case we are most definitely bucking the trend here but this is not a normal MLB season either. Yes the A's are the hottest team in baseball but there is a reason they are priced as a rather small favorite in this spot. It is simply an awful spot for Oakland. The Athletics just wrapped up a series sweep of the hated division rival Astros which included a benches clearing brawl in yesterday's game. Suffice to say emotions ran very high throughout that series and this is absolutely a flat spot for Oakland now as the A's are on the road to face the Angels. Oakland has a great record on the season and has won 9 straight games but they've also had an edge in that they have only played 4 road games. By the way, the A's hit just .198 in those 4 games away from home and now face a pitcher, Julio Teheran, whom they are not familiar with as he had spent his career in the National League. Teheran enters this game having held opponents to a .235 batting average while compiling a 3.67 ERA - those are his career numbers! He is a solid starting pitcher and certainly gets the nod in this game over the A's Sean Manaea as he had a lot of early season struggles. The left-hander is 0-2 with an 8.03 ERA in his first 3 starts and has not been able to make it through 5 innings in any of those starts! Los Angeles has a .433 slugging percentage in home games this season which ranks them 3rd in the American League. Per our computer math model, this game has upset written all over it. Bet the Angels on the money line in late night action Monday
|
08-10-20 |
Nuggets +5.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
121-124 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 5 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +5.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET This is an interesting number considering how well Denver has looked in the Bubble games compared to how bad the Lakers have played. Let us examine this number a little closer. The Lakers were just favored by minus -5.5 points against the Pacers and Thunder in recent games and lost both to teams’ inferior to the current Nuggets. The Washington Wizards have not won a game in the Bubble and have been horrendous offensively with a 1.031 points per possession efficiency rating. Believe it or not, the Lakers have been WORSE than the Wizards on the offensive end with an OEFF of .977PPP. That can’t be said about a Denver offense that is 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the five Bubble games at 1.176 points per possession. The Nuggets have gotten a huge scoring boost from Michael Porter Jr. who is averaging over 25PPG and 10RPG in the Bubble. They also got Jamal Murray back from injury who paid immediate dividends in the Nuggets win over Utah with 23-points, 12-rebounds and 8-assists. And we haven’t even gotten to Nikola Jokic who continues to play at a very high level. The Lakers are 2-4 SU in their six games in the restart and are mainly concerned about staying healthy for the playoffs. The Lakers season point differential is +6.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. In the Bubble games they have a negative differential of -7.2PPG second to last of the teams still playing. This Denver team is going to be a dangerous out in the Playoffs and the Lakers just aren’t engaged at this point in time. Easy call with the Underdog here.
|
08-09-20 |
Spurs +3 v. Pelicans |
Top |
122-113 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on San Antonio Spurs +3 over New Orleans Pelicans, 3:00PM ET We like the Spurs in this extremely important game for both teams as they battle for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. San Antonio has gone to a small-ball lineup which has resulted in a 3-2 start in the Bubble games. The Spurs were also extremely competitive in both losses, getting beat by Denver by 6-points and Philadelphia by 2. San Antonio was just a 2-point dog to the red-hot Nuggets and are now getting 3-points from a struggling Pelicans team. New Orleans is 2-3 SU in the Bubble games and one of the wins came via the Wizards who have a negative differential in the Bubble of -10.5PPG. The Pels other win was against a struggling Memphis team that is 1-4 in the restart. In the last five games for each team the Spurs have a positive point differential of +2.2PPG while the Pelicans are negative at minus -3.8PPG. San Antonio has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the restart, which is significantly better than the Pelicans who are averaging 1.089 points per possession which is 17th among the Bubble teams. The Spurs were +3.5-points in New Orleans in the regular season and won by 4-points. Now they are getting essentially the same number on a neutral floor and playing better than they were back in January. Easy call with the underdog here.
|
08-09-20 |
Tigers -130 v. Pirates |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Detroit Tigers over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET
The surprising Tigers have won 4 straight road games. It also seems the time off due to their games with the Cardinals being cancelled did this lineup a lot of good as Detroit has exploded for 28 runs in the first two games of this series. Part of that included giving Steven Brault trouble out of the bullpen Friday night as the Pittsburgh left-hander faced 6 Tigers and did not record an out! Now he gets the start here on Sunday because Joe Musgrove has right ankle soreness and has been scratched. Overall this is a bad Pittsburgh team with a 3-12 record that is the worst in the majors. Sunday they face the Tigers best starting pitcher so far this season as Spencer Turnbull continues to impress. A devastating slider for hitters to contend with has helped lead to 14 strikeouts in 11 innings as the Detroit right-hander has been sharp with a 2.45 ERA in his first two starts. This one, per our computer math model, is likely to turn into a road rout as Detroit stays hot at the plate and the Pirates overall early season struggles continue. Bet the Tigers on the money line in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-09-20 |
Bruins -118 v. Capitals |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Boston Bruins Money Line (-) over Washington Capitals, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET
This is a game in the round robin for seeding purposes and if Boston loses they play Carolina and if they win they play the Islanders in the first round of the post-season. While neither of those teams is particularly appealing to face the Bruins would likely rather avoid a Carolina team that swept the Rangers out of the playoffs. Not only that, Boston simply needs (and is hungry) for something positive to take out of this round robin and this is their last chance to get a positive before the true playoff pressure begins. While the Capitals have earned a point in the post-season, the Bruins are still without a point in this round robin. Also, Washington saw Nicklas Backstrom miss practice Friday plus John Carlson missed the most recent game and could still be out again here as well. Additionally, the Capitals Lars Eller left the bubble for the birth of a child. All in all, the Bruins are set up better here in terms of healthy bodies and also have the motivational factor as well. Boston won the most recent meeting between these teams by a count of 7-3, and per our computer math model, the Bruins are poised to dominate this one as well. ASA TOP PLAY 10* Boston Bruins on the money line in very early action Sunday.
|
08-08-20 |
Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET
The Diamondbacks have averaged scoring only 2.4 runs per game in their 7 road games this season. Arizona got shut out by the Padres last night and are likely in for another tough night at the plate Saturday. That is because Chris Paddack takes the mound for San Diego here. He has been very sharp already this season. He also is at his best at home. Paddack is already 2-0 in his 2 home starts this season and last season at home he went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and opponents hit just .188 against him at Petco Park. The Diamondbacks starting pitcher tonight should also enjoy success. Merrill Kelly has been sharp overall in his early season action (even battling hard against a tough Dodgers lineup) and the Padres have averaged only 6 hits per game in their past 3 games. Kelly had a great September last year and has carried that momentum right into this season. He is now 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA in his last 7 starts! In Kelly's last two starts against the Padres he has pitched 14 scoreless innings while allowing just 5 hits and striking out 18! Suffice to say he has plenty of confidence entering this match-up against the Padres. Per our computer math model runs will be few and far between in this one. Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Saturday.
|
08-08-20 |
Bucks v. Mavs +5 |
Top |
132-136 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on Dallas Mavericks +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30PM ET The line on this game is telling you who to bet as the number is not what it should be. Milwaukee was just favored by -9.5 over a hot Miami team, -19 against the Nets and even minus 5 against Houston and are now laying -5.5 to the Mavericks? That’s an indicator that Vegas knows something we don’t so we will be betting Dallas plus the points. The Mavs have locked up a playoff berth but can also move up in the standings and avoid a possible first round match up with a Los Angeles team. Milwaukee struggled in a pair of losses to Houston and Brooklyn then rebounded with a big win over Miami so the sense of urgency to win has subsided for the Bucks off that win and having the #1 seed clinched in the East. Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS their last ten games against the spread. Dallas is 1-3 SU in the four Bubble games but two of those losses were by 4 or less points. The Mavs are -7-1 ATS their last 9-games as a dog of 5 or more points. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee rests starters here and the Mavs win outright.
|
08-07-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors -3 |
Top |
122-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET We like the Raptors here minus the short number as they have been much better defensively than the Celtics in the Bubble. Toronto is allowing just .967 points per possession which is best in the league since the restart, which is not a surprise considering they are 2nd overall in the league in D.E.F.F. On the season the Celtics are 5th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.073PPP, but in the Bubble they are giving up 1.154PPP which ranks them 16th out of 22 teams. Boston has had some gaudy offensive numbers in their four games since the restart and are coming off a 149-point outburst against the Nets, and they put up 128 two games ago against the Blazers. Those teams are in the bottom four of the current 22-team league in the Bubble in defensive efficiency ratings. Against Miami and Milwaukee (similar to Toronto in terms of defense) the Celtics offense wasn’t nearly as impressive in two losses. The Raptors have the best overall point differential in the restart at +9.7PPG and are 3-0. Prior to the break the Raptors had won four games making this a 7-game winning streak so why wouldn’t we back them here at this price. The Celtics are expecting Kemba Walker back for this game but that can be a negative too as flow and timing will be disrupted. Play Toronto here.
|
08-07-20 |
Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
You never want to over-react to one game but the Royals 13-2 win yesterday was a big one for this team. It is the kind of confidence-boosting win that can get an entire lineup going. KC pounded out 18 hits and got RBI's yesterday from 7 of the 9 lineup spots. In other words, it was a true team effort and gives Kansas City a lot of confidence heading into this match-up against a struggling Twins pitcher. Keep in mind, yesterday's game was the 3rd time in 4 games that a Royals home game has totaled at least 11 runs. Also, facing the Twins Devin Smeltzer should help the Royals bats carry momentum from yesterday's big win. Smeltzer got rocked in his lone appearance on the road this season and also struggled in his outings away from home last season. Kansas City starts Jakob Junis in this one. He went 4-8 with a 5.85 ERA in his home starts last season. Kauffman Stadium can be a very hitter friendly ballpark especially when the wind is blowing out like it is expected to be tonight. Junis first start this season (versus the White Sox) did not go well. Now he faces a Twins lineup loaded with home run power. Junis has allowed 8 homers in his last 6 starts against Minnesota and, per our computer math model, more struggles for him against this potent lineup are expected tonight. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Friday.
|
08-07-20 |
Islanders -122 v. Panthers |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 44 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on New York Islanders Money Line (-) over Florida Panthers, Friday at 12:00 PM ET
The Islanders took the first two games of this series and, including regular season action, that made it 6 straight wins for the Islanders in meetings with Florida. The Panthers finally got a win in Wednesday's game as they took advantage of a couple of mistakes by New York. Florida potted two power play goals in the game but, once again, anyone watching that contest as well as having watched this entire series would agree that the Islanders have a "next level" that the Panthers just don't. The reason for the dominance the Islanders have in recent meetings with Florida is because their system frustrates the Panthers and that is why Florida scores so few goals in meetings between these teams. The problem in Game 3 was the Islanders, up 2-0 in the series, relied on that a bit too much and didn't show their "next level" for stretches during that game. Note that this is the first time we have seen these 5-game series in the NHL post-season in about 35 years. They are only being used because of how the pandemic impacted the finish to the regular season. The key point about the 5-game series though is that NHL teams are 56-1 when they take a 2-0 lead in the series. In other words the odds strongly favor the Islanders winning this series and we know they don't want this to go to a winner-takes-all game 5. With that being said, the Islanders bring their "A game" from the opening drop of the puck and that leads to a solid game 4 win. The Panthers have only won one playoff series in franchise history and that was 24 years ago when they made a run all the way to the Stanley Cup finals before falling to the Avalanche in a sweep. Florida has been one and done in the playoffs ever since then and have only scored 1 even strength goal per game so far in this series. The Islanders let Game 3 get away from them but won't make the same mistake here. Even though Jonahan Huberdeau, Florida's leading scorer, will likely find a way to play in this game, his leg injury could absolutely impact his effectiveness. The Islanders are such a frustrating team to play against and they again stifle the Panthers here but you'll also see a little more from New York in the offensive zone in this one too. Before that loss in Game 3, the Islanders had won 6 straight meetings with the Panthers by a combined score of 15 to 8. Per our computer math model here a 3 to 1 win in the forecast for the small money line favorite in this one. ASA TOP PLAY New York Islanders on the money line in very early action Friday.
|
08-06-20 |
Clippers -4 v. Mavs |
Top |
126-111 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -4 over Dallas Mavericks 6:30PM ET This could be a potential first round matchup in the playoffs and we expect the LA Clippers to make a statement in this contest. We like backing elite NBA teams when they are off a loss which is the case here after the Clippers lost last time out to the Suns. Both teams are a disappointing 1-2 SU in the restart but the Mavs are off their first win over a struggling Kings team while the Clippers are off a loss as we mentioned before. Luka had a monster game against the Kings with a plus 30/20/10 game but that was against a Kings defense that isn’t nearly as good as this Clippers unit that allows just 1.073 points per possession which is 4th best in the NBA. Lou Williams will be back in the lineup for the Clippers to provide scoring off the bench and give the Clippers that added advantage they’ve been missing. The Clippers are 16-5 ATS off a loss this season with an average winning margin of 15.4PPG and 41-17 SU since 2018 when coming off a loss winning those games by 6.6PPG. Los Angeles has covered 4 of the last five meetings including a win most recently in Dallas by 3-points without Paul George. Lay the points with the Clippers.
|
08-06-20 |
Yankees v. Phillies OVER 9.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, Thursday at 6:05 PM ET
There is rain in the Philly area this morning and could be some lingering afternoon activity as well. However, forecasts as of now indicate a quieter period in the early evening before rain possibly resumes overnight. In any event, this situation is too strong to ignore and we hope the weather stays away enough that they are able to play the full 9 innings in this one. Zach Eflin is actually the #4 starter for the Phillies but making his first appearance of the season due to prior covid-19 and weather cancellations. Very tough for a pitcher to stay sharp when the season started two weeks ago and yet he is just now getting his shot at game action on the mound! Plus Eflin will be facing a Yankees team whose .491 slugging percentage is tops in the majors. Eflin has good stuff in his repertoire of pitches but he has never been able to fully harness it and has a 4.73 ERA at the MLB level as he now enters his 5th season. The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery here and he'll be facing a Phillies lineup that came to life yesterday with a big 11-7 win in the first game of yesterday's double header. Philadelphia's .424 slugging percentage ranks them 7th among the 30 teams in the majors. Montgomery does have a knack for giving up the long ball particularly in road starts. Also, this will be just his 9th start since his rookie season in 2017 which was the last time he had significant activity at the MLB level. In other words you've got two starting pitchers here who are each question marks to an extent based on the above. You also have two potent powerful lineups and our computer math model is calling for a dozen runs to be scored in this one. Bet the OVER in Philadelphia in early evening action Thursday.
|
08-05-20 |
Oilers -121 v. Blackhawks |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-121 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 10* on Edmonton Oilers Money Line (-) over Chicago Blackhawks, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET
As expected, the Oilers bounced back strong in Game 2 to knock off the Blackhawks. This followed a Game 1 win for Chicago in which power play opportunities and loose play resulted in a very high-scoring upset win. While the win was impressive and the Blackhawks do have a nice mix of veteran talent and some young up and comers, the problem for the Blackhawks is they are still short of the level of team (and coaching) that Edmonton has. Lets not forget that the Hawks were a #12 seed for this qualifying round so this is one of the biggest mismatches on the board and the Oilers are starting to establish their will after a rough start in Game 1. Now the Oilers take it up yet another notch for this crucial "swing game" in Game 3. Yes in a 5-game series that is tied at 1 game apiece Game 3 becomes critical. The only reason that the NHL is using these 5-game series again (for the first time since the mid-80s) is because of this special qualifying round for this season's playoffs. History in NHL shows that over 80% of the time that a 5-game series is tied 1-1 the team that wins Game 3 goes on to win the series. In other words this game is critical. Both teams are aware of that fact of course but Edmonton is the team that can raise their game to the higher level. That is why this is a #5 vs #12 match-up. We would recommend playing this one early in the day as the price has dropped some this morning but we believe that was a set up per se and this price will now be rising as the day goes on. ASA PLAY 10* Edmonton on the money line in late night action Wednesday.
|
08-05-20 |
Raptors v. Magic UNDER 223 |
Top |
109-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 223 Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic, 8PM ET The Magic are playing without rest today so fatigue could certainly be an issue on the offensive end of the floor against a great defensive team like the Raptors. Orlando got off to a great start in the Bubble by producing 128 and 132 points in wins over the Nets and Kings and shot over 52% in those two games. Then yesterday they faced a Pacers team that plays defense (6th in defensive efficiency) and struggled to score 109 points. Today the Magic face a Raptors team that is 2nd in the NBA in D.E.F.F. allowing just 1.050 points per possession. In two games in the Bubble the Raptors have given up just 92-points and 103-points to the Heat and Lakers who are both better statistically than the Magic offensively. Orlando is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and will provide a stiff challenge for the Raptors on that end of the floor. Neither team likes to play fast as Toronto is barely above league average in pace of play while the Magic are well below average, ranking 26th in the NBA at 98.4 possessions per game. Toronto has a bigger game on deck against the Celtics and may not be as engaged versus the Magic tonight. In the 3 meetings earlier this season these two teams combined for 199, 210 and 173 total points. The bet here is UNDER!
|
08-05-20 |
Reds v. Indians UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
102 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Indians have struggled to score runs all season. They show an average of 2.7 runs per game in their first 12 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that. Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs. Other than that the Tribe have scored just 23 runs in their other 11 games. That is an average of 2.1 runs per game which is hard to believe. It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here. That's because they are facing Tejay Antone of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander made his debut against a Cubs team that is currently in 1st place in the division and certainly a tough lineup to face. Antone shut them down with just 1 hit allowed over 4+ innings. The rookie right-hander also looked sharp in spring training and summer camp. Adding to his value in this spot is that the struggling lineup of the Indians (.183 batting average on season ranking dead last!) has never faced him. As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late. Cincinnati has scored 15 runs in their last 5 games. Yes, two of those games were in a double-header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season, but the fact is the Reds have a .213 batting average on the season which ranks them 23rd out of the 30 teams in the majors. Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians. The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a rare tough start as he has been one of the most consistent hurlers in the game over the past 3 seasons compiling a 38-18 record with an ERA under the magical 3.00 mark! Also his tough outing in his last start was at Minnesota but now he is back home where he excelled in his first start this season plus went 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA last season. Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one. Bet the UNDER in Cleveland in early evening action Wednesday.
|
08-04-20 |
Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-101 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET
The value here is huge. This total opened up at an 8.5 which was already low (more on that in a moment) but then dropped down to a solid 8 which adds even more value to this one. Everyone saw the Rays struggle on their road trip but they are a different team at home and also will get to Nathan Eovaldi early and often in this one. Tampa Bay is averaging 6.6 runs per game when hitting at Tropicana Field this season. Eovaldi is still getting factored into games as if he was the same pitcher who raised his game in the 2018 post-season with the Red Sox. The fact is that he is not as all the injuries have caught up with him. He has had two Tommy John surgeries and is coming off an injury-shortened 2019 campaign as well. Eovaldi compiled a 5.99 ERA last season in 23 games (12 starts) and he got rocked by the Mets for 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. The Rays Charlie Morton got rocked in his first start this season (at home no less) but then was better in his 2nd one though he still allowed 6 hits in 5 innings and was hit quite hard. He struggles more against lefties and the Red Sox will have plenty of left-handed lumber in the lineup tonight plus some big right-handed sticks like Xander Bogaerts whom no one wants to face! While the Rays do have a solid bullpen behind Morton the Red Sox bats are quite dangerous. As for the Boston bullpen, they have issues and their team ERA is high for a reason! That said, the Red Sox pitching is bad enough that the Rays bats come to life at home. The Boston bats are strong enough that the Rays pitchers prove susceptible. Combining those factors and the fact that Eovaldi and Morton have been more hittable than usual early this season and you have the makings of an easy over in this one. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday
|
08-04-20 |
Magic -111 v. Pacers |
Top |
109-120 |
Loss |
-111 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* top play on: Orlando Magic (-) over Indiana Pacers, 6PM ET The Magic were exceptionally good to us the other night in their blowout win over Sacramento and we will come right back with a bet on them again here. The Magic were up 35 after 3-quarters against the Kings and were able to play the entire bench most of the 4th quarter. A rested Magic team catch a Pacers team off a game yesterday and playing their 3rd in four days. Indiana had all five starters log over 33 minutes Monday and have not been a good team without rest this year at 2-6 ATS, 3-5 SU record. Going back further we find the Pacers are 23-30 SU when playing the second night of a back-to-back with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. The Pacers have beaten the Magic twice already this season but that was back in November and Orlando is playing much better now. The Magic have won five in a row and covered 9 of their last ten games dating back to the pre-Covid break and have shot over 52% in both games in the Bubble. These two teams are similar in several key statistical categories, but the Magic have elevated their game to another level in the re-start. Bet Orlando.
|
08-03-20 |
Indians v. Reds UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET
The Indians have struggled to score runs all season. They show an average of 2.6 runs per game in their first 10 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that. Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs. Other than that the Tribe have scored just 17 runs in their other 9 games. That is an average of 1.9 runs per game which is hard to believe. It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here. That's because they are facing Sonny Gray of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander has absolutely dominated in his first two starts and continues piling up strikeouts! As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late. Cincinnati has scored 10 runs in their last 3 games. Yes, the last two were a double header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season but the fact is the Reds have a .226 batting average on the season which ranks them 20th out of the 30 teams in the majors. Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Zach Plesac gets the start for the Indians. The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a solid 2019 and got 2020 off to a great start as he absolutely handcuffed the White Sox in a dominating effort in which he fanned 11 in 6 innings. Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one. Bet the UNDER in Cincinnati in early evening action Monday.
|
08-03-20 |
Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 |
Top |
99-109 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* top play on: New Orleans Pelicans (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 6:30PM ET - This is a critical game for both teams who are fighting for a playoff berth in the West and are 0-2 in the NBA re-start. Memphis is coming off a game yesterday against a big game versus the Spurs and will be un-rested in this matchup. The Grizzlies have been particularly good against the spread in this scheduling situation but that was before the long layoff. The Pelicans lost their opener to the Jazz in a close game then allowed the Clippers to make 25 of 47 three-pointers in a 23-point loss. These two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and point differential. New Orleans was on a 6-1 ATS run on the road leading up to the Covid break which is significant considering these games in the bubble are essentially road games (neutral) for both teams. Conversely, the Grizz were 3-6 ATS their last nine road games and the three covers were against some of the league’s worst teams at Brooklyn, at Atlanta and at Washington. These two teams met in January and the Pelicans won by a combined 38-points and shot well in both games by hitting over 48% from the field. When it comes to shooting the long ball, the Pelicans shoot it better and defend it better than the Grizzlies do and that will be a huge factor in this outcome. Lay the points in a Pelicans double-digit win.
|
08-02-20 |
Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Toronto Maple Leafs versus Columbus Blue Jackets, Sunday at 8 PM ET
The Blue Jackets like to play tight defensive-minded hockey but the Maple Leafs won't allow for that. The strength of Toronto is their speed and their skilled forwards. Columbus head coach John Tortorella already announced some lineup changes to try and infuse more speed into his lines. That said, we're looking for a fast-paced and a bit of a helter-skelter type game in the opener of this 5-game series. The Maple Leafs are known for early exits from the post-season as it has been over a decade since they won a playoff series. That said, if they again fall short here it is because their goal-tending lets them down. We look for a high-scoring game here in game one regardless of who proves victorious. We simply don't trust the play of the Maple Leafs in their defensive zone but we know that the forwards of Toronto are going to give the Blue Jackets a lot of trouble at the other end of the ice! Yes, 4 of the 5 games yesterday totaled 5 or less goals but there is a reason this total is set at 6 goals and we won't let the bigger number keep us away. This one has the makings of a game that will see the lamp lit early and often behind each netminder! Bet the OVER in Toronto in NHL evening action Sunday
|
08-02-20 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-9 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:08 PM ET
Yesterday's game saw 7 runs scored by the top of the 3rd inning and then the bats went silent. That is highly unlikely to happen again today. The Red Sox team ERA ranks among the worst in the majors so far this season. Boston is scheduled to use Austin Brice as an opener in this one. That said, it really wouldn't matter who the Red Sox use as the starter here but he is the one that is scheduled for Boston as of this morning. Again, this one is being called a "bullpen game" for the Red Sox. Brice has a 5.00 ERA in his 110 MLB appearances and has never started a game. This season he has allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one on Sunday evening in the Bronx. That will help the hitters for both teams of course and we like the chances of the Boston bats coming back to life after last night's dismal result. The Red Sox will face James Paxton who is off a horrible start in which he was rocked by the Nationals. He is trying to get back to his usual form after having back surgery early this year. Suffice to say early indicators point to issues. Paxton plans to make some adjustments for this start but he tends to be a streaky pitcher as evidenced by his month to month stats last season. We're banking on an early season down cycle for him this season and expect another tough start in his 2nd outing of the season. Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in early evening action Sunday
|
08-02-20 |
Kings v. Magic -2.5 |
Top |
116-132 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic (-) over Sacramento Kings, 6PM ET Orlando went into the Covid-19 break with an 8-4 SU record their last twelve games and had covered 8 of their last nine games. In their first game of the restart they handled the Nets 128-118, but it could have been much worse as they led by as many of 30-points in the game at one point. The Magic had a great shooting night at 53% from the field, 35% from beyond the arc and 89% from the FT line. Orlando averaged just 106.7PPG on the season but put together a great performance Thursday and we expect that trend to continue here against the Kings. Sacramento is the 20th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.118 points per possession. The Kings defense did not show up against the Spurs in the opener when they allowed San Antonio to shoot 53% from the field, 44% from beyond the 3-point line. The big advantage the Magic have here is their defense that is 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and they will put the clamps on the Kings offensive. The Magic have 8 straight covers on the road or neutral floors and are the bet in this match up.
|
08-02-20 |
Martin Truex Jr +137 v. Ryan Blaney |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
137 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
BET MARTIN TRUEX JR + over Ryan Blaney Truex Jr and the No. 19 got a win earlier this season on the shorter half-mile flat track in Martinsville using this same race package and will again have a car capable of capturing the checkered flag Sunday. Truex Jr. has not won in New Hampshire but he has 6 Top 10’s and 3 Top 5’s in his last 10 races on this oval. In his 10 most recent races here he is second only to Kyle Busch in laps led at 596. In his last four Cup races at the Magic Mile his average finish of 4.5 is best of the field. The No. 19 is one of our favorites to win Sunday and will finish higher than Blaney who has just seven career Cup races on the Magic Mile and zero laps led in New Hampshire.
|
08-01-20 |
Padres v. Rockies +110 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
110 |
10 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Colorado Rockies over San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET
The Rockies took a 5-4 lead to the top of the 9th last night. The Padres then tied it on a solo bomb and then won it on a 3-run shot with 2 outs! Big win for San Diego for sure but we look for the home team to bounce right back today! The Padres are off to a good start this season but that has them a little over-valued now and we're going to take advantage. Coming into this season San Diego and Colorado were very close in terms of their win total projections for the shortened 2020 season 60-game schedule. That said, for the Padres to now be favored on the road in this situation is a little bit much! San Diego finished 13 games UNDER .500 in road games last season. The Rockies finished 5 games OVER .500 in home games last season. In looking at this pitching match-up today note that San Diego's Joey Lucchesi struggled as he got deeper into his first start. Also, Lucchesi was great at home last season but went 2-6 with a 6.22 ERA in his road starts last season and Coors Field tops the list of unfriendly sites for a visiting pitcher! As for the Rockies starter, Kyle Freeland, his first start saw him face the minimum 3 batters in each of the final 3 innings of his 6-inning start! He got stronger as the outing went on! He looked like the pitcher we saw in 2018 whom went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA including 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in his home starts. Though Freeland struggled at home last season he also struggled overall last season but his hard work to "return to form" coming into this season has a great chance of paying off and it sure looks like he's back the way he pitched in his first start! Keep in mind, unlike most Rockies pitchers, Freeland was better at home than on the road in both 2017 and 2018. He is very familiar with pitching at Coors Field and gets the better of Lucchesi in this one and the Rockies get immediate payback for last night's late loss. Bet the Rockies on the money line in evening action Saturday
|
08-01-20 |
Jazz +1.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
94-110 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Utah Jazz +1.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 3:30PM ET This is an interesting line with several solid indicators to put us on the Jazz in this match up. Everyone just watched the Jazz play an extremely poor game against the Pelicans and don’t want anything to do with Utah here. We do! The Jazz turned it over 20 times in the opener against the Pelicans and shot just 24% from beyond the arc. We are betting we see the Jazz shoot it much better tonight considering they were the second best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.1% and turn it over on average 15 times per game. We also like the advantage the Jazz have with a game under their belt in this unusual environment. Utah is slightly better than the Thunder in average point differential this season (+3.2PPG vs. 2.5PPG), 9th in offensive efficiency compared to 14th for OKC and both are essentially even in defensive efficiency allowing 1.092 points per possession. Utah got balanced scoring with six players in double-digits, three of which were 20 plus. We like OKC, especially their road numbers but this situation clearly favors a Jazz team that have covered 7-straight as a Dog. Bet the Jazz in this one.
|
07-31-20 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 10 |
Top |
10-11 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
Both teams are off games in which they scored just 2 runs last night. However, the O/U on this one opened up at a 10 with good reason. The Mets were hosting the Red Sox last night and fell short but now face Sean Newcomb of the Braves whom they already faced last week. The Braves hung on for a 2-1 win hosting the Rays last night. While their bats were quiet in that game, Atlanta will now take advantage of again seeing Rick Porcello as they faced him this past weekend in their opening series of the season. Porcello struggled and gave up 7 earned runs in just 2 innings in that outing against the Braves. He had a 5.52 ERA with the Red Sox last season and giving a team a second look at you after they just rocked you in your prior start usually doesn't go well for a struggling hurler. That being said, Porcello has seen his better days in this league and is on the downhill slide at this point in his career. Atlanta's Newcomb had a ton of trouble with his command against the Mets this past weekend and it took 82 pitches for him just to record 10 outs as he lasted just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in that start. The Braves lefty is notorious for being a slow starter as he had a rough April each of the past two years. In this strange pandemic year, this is Newcomb's April and, per our computer math model, more struggles ensue today for both starting pitchers and the bullpens will again be called upon far too early as a result. Bet the OVER in the Braves game in early evening action Friday
|
07-31-20 |
Grizzlies v. Blazers -2.5 |
Top |
135-140 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on: Portland Trailblazers (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 4PM ET In this day game showdown, we like the Blazers minus the short number. After a disappointing season, the Blazers have a great opportunity to right the ship in this 8-game mini-series and nab the 8 seed in the West. Standing in Portland’s way is the Memphis Grizzlies who currently hold the 8th seed in the West and a 3 ½ game lead over the Blazers. Portland will have the best player on the floor in Dame Lillard along with a host of veteran talent that has a ton of playoff experience. The Blazers can get scoring from several players on the roster including Carmelo Anthony and CJ McCollum along with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from injury. Memphis has an incredibly young roster and rising star in Ja Morant but the pressure in this 8-game season will be much more than the regular season games. Portland was much better in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.128 points per possession which is 7th best in the league. Memphis is 20th in O.E.F.F. at 1.094PPP. The Grizz hold the advantage on the defensive end of the court ranking 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Blazers are 27th. The key here will come down to 3-point shooting and the Blazers hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting from beyond the arc. Portland is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the league at 37.2% while Memphis is 22nd in defensive 3-point FG percentage. The Blazers have a roster full of veterans that have played in big games and this second chance to save their season will have them prepared and focused.
|
07-30-20 |
Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees (9 runs scored, 3 homers) proved yesterday that missing a series in Philly (due to the covid-19 situation with the Marlins who had just visited there) was not going to impact their bats. Indeed the Yankees had their big lumber going yesterday and we expect more of the same tonight. John Means gets the start for the Orioles. The lefty was supposed to start the season opener for Baltimore but did not due to arm fatigue. That is certainly not a good sign for Means and he does not have overpowering stuff plus is a flyball pitcher. Yes he had some success for the Orioles last year but not against New York. The Yankees crushed Means for 10 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings in the two times they faced him as a starter. Plus, with arm fatigue already an issue for Means entering this season, you could see an early exit for him here and that gets the Yanks powerful bats into a weak Orioles bullpen. Baltimore had a 5.92 ERA in home games last season - the worst mark in the league. Yankees start JA Happ here and the southpaw would likely rather face someone other than the Orioles. Happ's 6.85 ERA in 5 starts against Baltimore last season show that this is a team that gives him trouble. Happ gave up 7 homers to the Orioles last season and no team hit more against him . There were 4 homers hit in yesterday's game and the ball will again be carrying well at Camden Yards again tonight with a favorable weather report for the hitters. All signs, including our computer math model, point to this game turning into a high-scoring affair with plenty of big innings expected. Bet the OVER in the Orioles game in early evening action Thursday
|
07-30-20 |
Jazz +2.5 v. Pelicans |
Top |
106-104 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* top play on: Utah Jazz +2.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Thursday 6:30PM ET The wrong team is favored here as the number is set according to public perception which is that the Pelicans must win to get into the Playoffs. That is correct but the Jazz also have something to play for as they currently sit 4th in the West but could fall all the way to 7th which would mean a first round matchup with the Clippers or Nuggets. In this match-up we have the better overall team getting points so why wouldn’t we take Utah. The Jazz had the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating prior to the break at 1.12 points scored per possession, New Orleans was 15th in O.E.F.F. on the season. There was a much wider margin when it comes to defense between these two teams as the Jazz were 10th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans were 21st allowing 1.11 points per possession. The Jazz were a much better road team on the season too with a 20-13 SU away record and an average margin of victory of 2.0PPG. Utah had the second-best offensive efficiency rating when playing on the road in the NBA. New Orleans had a losing road record on the season at 15-17 SU with a negative differential of -2.8PPG. Obviously, the reason we make the road comparisons is because there is no home court advantage in the Bubble NBA the rest of this season. All three regular season meetings between these two teams were close with Utah winning two of the three and we’ll predict another close Jazz win here.
|
07-29-20 |
Rays v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
Charlie Morton starts for the Rays here. He was great through the first three innings of his first start of the season. Morton then uncharacteristically ran into trouble in both the 4th and 5th innings. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball (45-16 last 3 seasons) and will bounce back strong here facing the team that he began his career with. Morton had a 3.08 ERA the last 2 seasons and is known for responding well when off a rough outing. The Rays right-hander had a 1.39 ERA in his 8 starts last season which followed an outing in which he was charged with 4 or more runs. Morton will take advantage of facing a Braves team that is not swinging the bats very well. Atlanta had one big game at the plate so far this season but in the other 4 games (3 losses), the Braves have scored an average of only 3 runs a game. The key to the value with the under here is that the Braves are turning to their staff ace Mike Soroka for this start. He pitched 6 scoreless innings in his opening day start and is coming off a season in which he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA. The Rays have very little familiarity with him and like the Braves, have had only one big game at the plate so far this season. Other than one strong game, Tampa Bay's other 4 games have seen them average only 6 hits per game! Soroka versus Morton, per our computer math model, is set up perfect to be a pitchers duel. Bet the UNDER in Atlanta in early evening action Wednesday.
|
07-28-20 |
Blue Jays v. Nationals OVER 10 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:05 PM ET
The Blue Jays ended up without Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk, and Travis Shaw on Monday and yet Toronto still finished with 4 homers in the game. The problem for anyone who had the over in Monday's contest was that all 4 homers were solo shots in the 4-1 win. The other problem (speaking for those who had the over) was that the Blue Jays recorded 4 double plays, the teams went a combined 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position and the Nationals scored just 1 run despite 10 hits. All these signs point to a much higher scoring match-up on Tuesday even if the above mentioned players are again out of the lineup (although 1 or 2 are likely to be back in it). The key is the pitching match-up here and the fact that the Nationals wasted so many opportunities Monday and are likely to bounce back huge at the plate after the 4-1 home loss. The Blue Jays are starting former Nat Tanner Roark and he was very hittable in summer camp and got hit at a .279 clip on the road last season. He is a combined 19-25 the past two seasons and has had unimpressive ERAs for the season the past 3 years since his phenomenal 2016 campaign. Roark may be guilty of "overthrowing" here as emotion gets the best of him as he faces his former team in DC. Also, Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is out with an injury! We also look for the Nationals starting pitcher, Austin Voth, to struggle in this one. The right-hander struggled against left-handed bats last season in terms of batting average against and the Jays had 4 left-handed bats in last night's lineup. Against righties, Voth had trouble in terms of power with 4 homers allowed in 24 innings versus righties. The Jays proved again last night, even without their full lineup, that they have plenty of power as they knocked 4 out of the park. Toronto entered this season with plenty expected at the plate but they faced the pitching-rich Rays to open the season and that held them back some. On Tuesday they take advantage of facing the Nats #5 starter. At the same time, the Nationals run production picks up after a crazy result in Monday's game filled with wasted opportunities for the home team. Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Tuesday.
|
07-27-20 |
Angels +108 v. A's |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's, Monday at 3:40 PM ET
The A's are up 2-1 in this 4-game series but this has been a series that could have gone either way thus far. Arguably the Angels could be up 3-0 and should be up at least 2-1 in this 4-game set. That factor along with the pitching edge here is why this line opened up with Oakland as such a short home favorite. The Angels opened up as a very small underdog for a reason. The first game between these 3 teams show a 7-3 final but the A's hit a grand slam for the win in the bottom of the 10th. The second game saw the Angels win 4-1. Then Sunday's game saw Shohei Ohtani of the Angels allow 5 earned runs without recording an out in the first inning! That set up the A's perfectly but the Angels outscored Oakland 4-1 the rest of the way. We like the resilient Angels to again respond off a loss just like they did in Saturday's game. Los Angeles starts Griffin Canning here and he had a 3.80 ERA in his day game starts last season while holding opponents to a .224 batting average. He enters this start off a great tune up to wrap up summer camp as he pitched 6 scoreless innings in that start and allowed just 3 hits while striking out 5. Canning is ready for an A's team that has not been swinging the bats particularly well early this season. Look for the Angels to get to A's starter Chris Bassitt early and often. In looking at the A's starting pitchers he is the one least ready for the season in terms of having arm strength built up. Bassitt has a history of struggles with the Angels and that includes allowing 11 runs (7 earned) in 9 innings spanning his two career home starts versus LA. This is a potent Angels lineup that has the right match-up here for a breakout game and, per our computer math model, they roll to a road rout in this one. Bet the Angels on the money line in afternoon action Monday
|
07-26-20 |
Twins v. White Sox OVER 10 |
Top |
14-2 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET
Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Twins here. He had some impressive numbers (at times) in LA courtesy of pitching in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. On the road was a different story for Maeda. Last season was the 2nd time in the past 3 seasons that Maeda had an ERA north of 5.00 away from home. Now he faces a White Sox team that pounded out 5 homers in yesterday's 10-3 win over the Twins. It will be hot and humid weather with the wind expected to be blowing out to left-center at Guaranteed Rate Field Sunday. Minnesota, 10-5 winners Friday, will also take advantage of this. Per our computer math model, there will be plenty of runs scored in this Sunday match-up with a result similar to the first two games of the series. The White Sox are starting Reynaldo Lopez here. The righty particularly struggled against left-handed batters last season and it is likely that about half of the Twins lineup will step in on that side of the plate Sunday. Remember that Friday's game - an explosion on offense for Minny - came against a right-handed starter. Lopez had all sorts of trouble with the Twins last season (0-3, 9.60 ERA) and we expect more of the same here. The icing on the cake for this match-up is that both bullpens have been used extensively already in this high-scoring series so, after these two starters get knocked out early (likely), each pen will be put in a tough spot as this game goes on. Plus the White Sox really got to the Twins pen yesterday and Minny gave the Chicago pen trouble in Friday's game. Bet the OVER in Chicago White Sox in early afternoon action Sunday.
|
07-24-20 |
Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
23 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
First off, you won't find us laying 2 to 1 odds on a money line. But we can get great value here (+105/+100 range as of Thursday night) by utilizing the run line (-1.5 runs) in this match-up. With that said, there is plenty of support for expecting a lopsided game at Citizens Bank Stadium Friday evening. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Last season Miami went 57-105 and that included an ugly 27-54 in road games. Not only do they lose 2 out of every 3 road games but how likely is a blowout loss here? The Marlins lost 77 games by 2 or more runs last season! That means about 3 of every 4 Miami losses comes by a margin of multiple runs. The Phillies saw 61 of their 81 wins last season come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. Per our computer math model, this one will too. The Phillies Aaron Nola allowed only 2 earned runs in 14 and 2 / 3 innings of work at home against the Marlins last season. Overall at home Nola dominated last season (charged with just 2 losses all season) as he held opponents to a .219 batting average while racking up a 2.91 ERA! Miami starts Sandy Alcantara here and he is a respectable starter. However, the Phillies have given him some trouble and hit him quite hard. In Alacantara's match-ups with Philly in 2019 he was hit at a .333 clip. Alcantara allowed 27 hits plus walked 7 against the Phillies in 18 and 2 / 3 innings. That is nearly 2 base runners allowed per inning and that leads to trouble in no time. The Marlins are again projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball while the Phillies should challenge for the NL East title in this shortened 60-game season. This is a mismatch in terms of the lineup and the pitching and a strong play on the home team is in order here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.
|
07-23-20 |
Kyle Busch v. Ryan Blaney -135 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
Bet to No. 12 Ryan Blaney -135 over No. 18 Kyle Busch - Blaney led 150 laps in Texas last weekend and ran 86 of the fastest laps which were both race highs for the day. Unfortunately, a bit of bad luck late in the race cost him any chance of winning a race he dominated. If you’ve been watching the Cup races, then you know Blaney and the No. 12 have been one of the fastest cars in this 550-HP race package on 1.5 mile tracks. In the last four races on 1.5-mile tracks the No. 12 has been top six in fastest laps raced and laps led. Nobody has had more of the fastest laps in those four 1.5 mile races than Blaney. The No. 12 has 1 win this year at Talladega but could easily have 3 or four more wins with better late race strategies. In 10 Cup races on the Kansas Speedway Blaney has 5 Top 10’s and Top 5’s. Considering the No. 12 Ford Mustang for the Penske Team continues to be one of the fastest cars on the track each week we can’t afford to not have him on our betting slip. Kyle Busch is a fan favorite and continues garner unwarranted odds by the Sportsbooks. The No. 18 has not won this Cup season and is 8th overall in driver ratings and 10th in points. Kyle Busch is over-valued again based on past success but the reality is he hasn't won here since 2016. Blaney has had the better car and will finish higher than Busch here.
|
07-19-20 |
Ryan Blaney +100 v. Kyle Busch |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
Blaney and the No. 12 Ford Mustang for Team Penske has been outstanding on the 1.5-mile tracks in this race package. On similar tracks since the restart Blaney has a pair of 3rd place finishes at Charlotte, a 4th in Atlanta and a 6th place finish last weekend at Kentucky. It’s safe to say when a driver and car dominate on a particular track with a certain race package setup, they’ll be contenders every race. Blaney and the No. 12 have six straight top 5 finishes on 1.5-mile tracks. In his last four races here for Team Penske the No. 12 has a 5th, 2nd and 8th place finish in three of the four events. Blaney will be in the thick of it Sunday. Kyle Busch continues to be over-valued by the oddsmakers with an O'fer season running in 17 races. With the added race Wednesday night, Busch has spent a ton of time behind the wheel and the heat of today's race will wear him down. Easy bet on Blaney who could easily win today's race outright.
|
07-12-20 |
Denny Hamlin -125 v. Martin Truex Jr |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
16 h 39 m |
Show
|
We are expect a solid day from the Joe Gibbs racing team and there is no way we can’t have Denny Hamlin on our betting slip this Sunday. Hamlin was essentially in cruise control on his way to a win in Indianapolis last week before he blew his front right tire and hit the wall with 7 laps remaining. Hamlin and Harvick have been the best two drivers in recent weeks as they finished 1st and 2nd in both races at Pocono a few weeks ago, then looked like it was going to 1st and 2nd again last Sunday in Indy before the No. 11 hit the wall. Hamlin has not won a Cup race at Kentucky Speedway in 9 tries but he has 4 Top 5 finishes in his last eight races on this Intermediate oval. In the last three races nobody has more of the fastest laps run than Hamlin and his Toyota Camry with 63. Hamlin will be in the hunt again this Sunday and have one of the fastest cars in the field. Truex Jr. has won here twice in 2017 and 2018 but that was with a different race package. Last year in the new setup he finished 19th on this track. Truex Jr. and his new crew chief haven't been nearly as good as he was a year ago and is vastly overrated in this matchup. Easy bet on the red hot Hamlin and the No. 11.
|
03-11-20 |
Rangers v. Avalanche OVER 6 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Avalanche versus New York Rangers, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET
The Avalanche ran into a red hot Kings team that has been playing the role of spoiler and stifling teams. That resulted in a 3-1 loss for Colorado at Los Angeles Monday but that ended a streak of 3 straight games that totaled at least 7 goals. Per our computer math model, this total being set at 6 is offering substantial line value on the over because of the situation. Colorado should bounce back in the offensive zone now that they are back home and facing a Rangers team playing the 2nd night of a back to back. Also, New York should match the production of the Avalanche here as the Rangers come into this game having scored at least 4 goals in 3 straight games. The Rangers are off a 4-2 win at Dallas. While that game totaled 6 goals, the Rangers entered that contest with 8 of 10 games totaling 7 or more goals. High-scoring games continue to be the norm for the Rangers in recent weeks and we see that trend continuing tonight as the Avalanche will be extra aggressive off a 3-1 loss. Bet the OVER in Colorado in NHL early late night action Wednesday
|
03-11-20 |
North Carolina -3 v. Syracuse |
Top |
53-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Syracuse, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET We were on UNC yesterday and picked up an easy win as the routed Va Tech. We like the Heels again for many of the same reasons we stated yesterday. This is a very talented team that simply had a poor season. They have new life now with a shot to make the NCAA tourney and we felt they play as they’d play well and they did. UNC is on a nice roll right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming @ Duke in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. Much of their late season success is because this team is finally fully healthy. Their top players, Cole Anthony, missed 11 games due injury. Their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Robinson, also missed time because of an injury and these two were rarely on the court at the same time. Now they are healthy and in yesterday’s win over the Hokies they combined for 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists. They were also both healthy when the Tar Heels faced this Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome late in the season. UNC rolled to an easy 92-79 win in that game and it was the home finale for the Orange. North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and that showed last night as they gathered a huge 45 boards to just 30 for VT. They were +9 on the glass @ Syracuse gathering 40% of their misses in that game in the Dome. We see nothing changing here as the Cuse is the worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC and 329th nationally. Add that to the fact that UNC is starting to play very well offensively averaging 85 PPG, 48% shooting, and 42% from 3 over their last 5 games while scoring more than 1.10 PPP in 4 of those 5 games, and it will be very tough for Syracuse to stay in this one. The Orange had 10 ACC wins, however 6 of those came against the 4 lowest rated teams in the league (BC twice, Pitt twice, Wake, and Va Tech). They are heading in the opposite direction losing 7 of their last 11 including a setback vs Miami FL (7-13 in the ACC) despite the Canes playing without their leading scorer. UNC already proved they could handle Syracuse and that was on the road. Now on a neutral court where the Heels were able to get comfortable playing yesterday (@ UNC Greensboro) we give them a big advantage here. North Carolina remains very dangerous and they move on with another win.
|
03-11-20 |
Fordham v. George Washington UNDER 122.5 |
Top |
72-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Under 122.5 Points - Fordham vs George Washington, Wed at 3:30 PM ET These two teams have met twice this year and scored 115 & 113 points. Those 2 meetings were at small home courts and this one is at a large NBA arena (Brooklyn Nets) which should cause even more problems for the offenses. In their 2 games these teams made 18, 19, 20, and 22 field goals which is extremely low. They combined to shoot just 37% and averaged only 52 field goal attempts per game. That parallels what they’ve done this season as these teams simply don’t get many shots off (Fordham is 231st in FG attempt rate & GW is 253rd). When they do get shots up they aren’t very accurate shooting teams. Fordham is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation making only 37% (346th out of 351) and George Washington isn’t great hitting 43% (181st nationally). Neither team gets to the FT line very often (Fordham is 342nd in FT attempt rate & GW is 263rd in that category) and when they do neither shoots above 70%. Fordham’s defense is very good ranking 85th in defensive efficiency, 75th in defensive FG% and 54th in 3-point defense. GW’s defense is a notch or two behind Fordham, however they have proven they can hold this bad Ram’s offense in check in their 2 meetings this season. There are only 2 teams in the nation that score fewer points than Fordham who averages 58 PPG and away from home just 55 PPG. The Colonials average only 65 PPG on the season (315th) and away from home just 61 PPG. On top of all that, these are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country (331st & 276th) and add that to the poor shooting we expect and this one should be very low scoring. Fordham is 10-19-1 to the UNDER this year while George Washington is 10-20-1 to the UNDER. With the line set at GW -3, it suggests a final score of somewhere in the range of 63-60. We don’t think either team reaches 60 in this game and well grab the UNDER here.
|
03-10-20 |
Nets +11.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
104-102 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +11.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET We will go against the Lakers here and take Brooklyn plus the double digits. The Lakers are obviously coming off a pair of HUGE WINS over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend so don’t expect their focus or energy to be at a high level here against the lowly Nets. Not only are the Lakers off a couple big games but they also have the Rockets on deck. Brooklyn on the other hand will be amped to face LeBron and the Lakers. The Nets have a new coach in place now as they (Irving and Durant) recently decided to fire Kenny Atkinson and temporarily replace him with assistant Jacque Vaughn. The Nets have won two straight and three of their last four games, which includes a win at Boston. Brooklyn has cashed in 5 of their last six as an underdog and are a very attractive play here given the circumstances. As we already mentioned the Lakers are off two big games but in reality, it’s five straight as they also hosted Philly, went to New Orleans and played at Memphis. L.A. is 12-11 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season, 8-8 ATS when laying 11 or more points. The Lakers average winning margin at home this season is +9.7PPG which isn’t enough to get the money here. Despite the Nets 11-20 SU road record their average road differential of minus -3.1PPG is 18th in the NBA and slightly below league average of -2.7PPG. The Nets have been a double-digit dog just one time this season and this line is clearly an over-adjustment by the Lakers recent success. Easy call here with the puppy!
|
03-10-20 |
Predators -110 v. Canadiens |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Nashville Predators money line (+) over Montreal Canadiens, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
Both these teams battling hard as they make a push for the playoffs. However, only one team (the Predators) has been getting the job done. Juuse Saaros, Nashville netminder, is coming off back to back shutouts in his last two starts and he has a 1.84 GAA and a sizzling hot .948 save percentage which has led the way to him winning 5 of his last 7 starts. Overall, the Predators have won 8 of 13 games including key back to back games over the Stars which gives Nashville a ton of momentum heading into this game. On the other hand, Montreal is falling apart. The Canadiens are off back to back losses and have been defeated in 9 of their past 13 games. Montreal has allowed 3 or more goals in 11 of 13 games. The Predators Saros has allowed a total of just 10 goals in his last 6 starts! The Canadiens Carey Price has allowed 4 goals in 3 of his last 4 starts. Nashville has won 4 straight meetings with Montreal and outscored them 7-2 in last season's series sweep. Of course home is priced into this line which is why get a very small price on a Predators team that would be a large favorite if they were the home team in this one. With that being said, Montreal has won only 8 of its last 27 games on home ice so there is tremendous value in fading the Canadiens here. Our computer math model also notes the recent power play struggles of the Habs and strong recent success for the Preds as being another key edge in what should be a road rout. Bet Nashville on the money line in Tuesday hockey action.
|
03-10-20 |
North Carolina -2.5 v. Virginia Tech |
Top |
78-56 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -2.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET UNC finished with a 6-14 ACC record which was their worst mark since 2010. This is obviously a program that is used to winning as they’ve averaged 13 ACC wins over the previous 9 seasons leading into this year. They have talent, including a lottery pick in PG Anthony, who is back after missing much of the season. We think the Heels are a dangerous team right now for that reason. It’s a new season and if the win the ACC tourney they go to the NCAA tourney. New life for this team. They were playing well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4 with their only loss @ Duke over the weekend. UNC lost that game by 13 but it was a 2-point game with under 10 minutes remaining. This team was playing their best basketball of the season heading into Saturday’s game @ Duke as over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 80 PPG shooting 47% overall and 37% from deep. Anthony, one of the best players in the country, missed 11 games from December 15th through the end of January. Even though he’s a freshman, he should be fresh for this tourney. Not only did Anthony miss time but Brandon Robinson, the Heels 3rd leading scorer, also missed a number of games this year including 4 straight between Feb 3rd and Feb 11th. Both are back and healthy. Since mid December, those 2 players have started and played together in only 6 games because of their injuries. This is a full strength North Carolina team that was simply haven’t seen for much of the season. Virginia Tech is an extremely young team with 5 freshmen in their top 7 including 3 starters. Many times freshmen can struggle late in the year because it’s such a long season and a grind they are not used to. We’ve seen that with the Hokies who’ve only won 2 of their last 12 games with those freshmen playing significant minutes. This will be VT’s 4th game in the last 10 days with 3 of those coming on the road, including a loss @ Notre Dame just a few days ago (Saturday). These two met once this season with Tech winning at home in OT 79-77. The Tar Heels were very short handed for that game with both Anthony & Robinson out and still took the Hokieks to OT on the road. UNC had some stinkers this year but for the most part they were competitive in their losses. Six of their last nine losses have come by 6 points or less and that includes games vs Duke (lost on OT at home), Virginia (lost by 2) and FSU (lost by 6 on the road). We’ve got a strong feeling we’ll see a very solid UNC team on Tuesday night as they enter a new season where everyone is 0-0. Lay the points with the Tar Heels.
|
03-09-20 |
Green Bay +5 v. Northern Kentucky |
Top |
69-80 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UW Green Bay +5 over Northern Kentucky, Monday at 9:30 PM ET The Final 4 of the Horizon League tourney is being played in Indianapolis at IUPUI’s home court. This game has the #2 seed Northern Kentucky facing the #3 seed UW Green Bay. We really like how UWGB is playing coming into this game winning 7 of their last 9 games. That includes a win last Thursday in the opening round of this tourney as they topped Oakland in Green Bay by a final score of 78-63. Northern Kentucky had a bye and is playing their first game in this tourney. We think that absolutely favors Green Bay. They are playing well and sometimes a long layoff can be bad for a team. The Phoenix played at home to end the regular season on Saturday, Feb 29th. They followed that up with the win on Thursday we talked about above and now play tonight. So plenty of rest between games while still playing. NKU, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game period since Saturday, Feb 29th and that’s the only game they have played since February 22nd. Thus the Norse have played 1 game in the last 15 days. Not ideal in our opinion. These two split their regular season match ups with UWGB winning @ NKU by 14 and the Norse returning the favor and winning @ Green Bay by 9. The Phoenix are the much better shooting team in this match up. They shoot 45% on the season and they are the 27th best 3-point shooting team in the nation. NKU sits just inside 300th overall shooting (288th) and they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (298th). The defensive edge might go to Northern but if so it’s a slight one. UWGB has never been known as a great defensive team although they’ve flown under the radar on that end of the court this season. The rank 4th in eFG% defense, 4th in 2-point defense, and 3rd in the conference in 3-point defense. They’ve also locked down NKU in their 2 meetings this year holding them to 35% shooting. In their home loss to NKU, the difference was FT’s as the Norse attempted 27 freebies and made 20 while GB attempted 12 and made 7. In a 9-point game that was absolutely the difference. When the FT’s were basically even @ Northern Kentucky (16 attempts for GB / 13 attempts for NKU) the Phoenix won by double digits. The Norse finished 2nd in the conference 2 games ahead of GB but we think the Phoenix are the better team right now. Take the points.
|
03-09-20 |
Panthers +140 v. Blues |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
140 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida Panthers money line (+) over St Louis Blues, Monday at 8:05 PM ET
The Blues are in a back to back spot and off a shutout win on the road at Chicago in divisional action last night. The scheduling advantage goes to a rested Panthers team in this one. St Louis started Jake Allen in goal last night and he got the shutout win. Jordan Binnington will get the start here and he is off a loss and allowed 3 goals in his most recent start. That was the 2nd time in 4 starts that he has allowed 3 or more goals - he allowed 5 in the other one! Binnington will be opposed by Florida's Chris Driedger in this one. He has been fantastic in the crease since he returned from injury. Driedger has allowed a total of just 3 goals in his 2 starts since coming back. The Panthers were off yesterday and now Driedger and his teammates will look to build off Saturday's 4-1 win versus Montreal. Florida has been playing well in their own zone and has allowed a total of only 7 goals in regulation time of their last 4 games. The Blues have allowed 10 goals in regulation time of their last 3 home games. Per our computer math model, the Panthers score the upset over the defending champs and get payback for getting swept by St Louis last season. Bet Florida on the money line in Monday hockey action.
|
03-08-20 |
Blues v. Blackhawks +122 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago Blackhawks money line (+) over St Louis Blues, Sunday at 7:35 PM ET
The Blackhawks Corey Craword has been fantastic ever since the calendar hit 2020. He has had one bad start in 18 starts and, ironically, it came at St Louis! Now Crawford gets a shot at revenge on home ice against a Blues team that potted 6 goals against him last month. In Crawford's other 17 starts in 2020 he has allowed a total of only 37 goals. He has not allowed more than 3 goals in any of those 17 starts. With him playing well between the pipes and Chicago coming off an upset loss to the Red Wings, this is the perfect spot in which to back the Blackhawks as a home dog. St Louis also will be hungry here as they enter this game off a 4-2 loss at New Jersey. However, the home ice and the revenge factor are keys in this game. Chicago had won 4 in a row prior to the loss at Detroit and the Blackhawks simply ran into a hungry Original Six rival that got the best of them in a spoiler role in that game. This situation is much different and the Blues loss to the Devils was their 10th road loss in their last 14 games away from home. Per our computer math model, the road struggles continue here. Bet Chicago on the money line in Sunday hockey action.
|
03-08-20 |
Lakers v. Clippers -2.5 |
Top |
112-103 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA play on: Clippers -2 over Lakers, 3:30PM ET We’ve said it from day 1 and will say it again, the Clippers are going to win the NBA Championship unless some unforeseen major injuries occur. LeBron couldn’t elevate his teammates last year so they added a top 5 players in the league in Anthony Davis along with several other top level vets. But the Clippers have outdone the Lakers with their own additions of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard then recently landed Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. The Clippers 2nd unit is the best in the NBA and could potentially be a playoff team by themselves. The Lakers are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and had the perfect game plan to contain Giannis but the Clippers have to many options to control. The Clippers recent resume includes wins at Houston by 15, at a hot OKC team by 15 along with home wins over Philly and a blowout of Denver. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings and have a home average winning margin of +9.7PPG. LeBron can’t ‘bully’ his way to the rim in this game with Kawhi, Morris and Beverly defending him and we don’t feel the Lakers can adapt. Bet the Clippers as they are at full strength, have the better coach and roster.
|