Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-09-23 | Grand Canyon v. Liberty -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -4.5 over Grand Canyon, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Tough spot here for Grand Canyon traveling to the east coast after pulling a huge, court storming win over San Diego State at home on Tuesday. This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season and by far their furthest travel thus far. The Antelopes only other road game was at UT Rio Grande Valley who is rated outside the top 300 per KenPom. Liberty is at home for the 2nd straight game after crushing Mississippi Valley State on Tuesday by 35 and the Flames were able to spread their minutes out nicely so they should be fresh here. Speaking of home, Liberty Arena has been very good to the Flames who’ve won 20 straight games here including topping Villanova last season. Liberty has a number of solid top 140 wins this year beating Wichita State, Furman, Charlotte, and Vermont, all away from home on neutral courts. Their losses have come vs FAU (top 20 team) and Charleston both away from home. While Grand Canyon has played all home games but 1, this Liberty team is 7-2 despite playing only 3 home games so far this season. The Flames return 4 starters from a team that finished with a 27-9 record last year. This veteran team has really shot the ball well (16th nationally in eFG%) and they are facing a Grand Canyon team that struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.5% (276th nationally). The Antelopes rely heavily on getting to the FT line with a whopping 28% of their points this year coming from the stripe (2nd most nationally). They may struggle to get calls on the road in this one and Liberty does very well at limiting fouls. Liberty plays a very slow tempo and should control the pace at home here which should take Grand Canyon out of their game as they love to play fast. This is a really solid situation to lay a small number with a very good team at home. Take Liberty |
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12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two teams and the Thunder have already won 2 of the three. If you bet these two teams based on their logos or history, you’ll probably be on the Warriors, but the facts of the matter are, OKC is the better team right now. Golden State stands 10-10 SU on the season and it’s a bye product of two things, poor shooting and lack of defense. The Warriors were 4th in effective FG% a year ago but currently rank 22nd this season. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins are broke right now as Thompson is shooting a career low 39.7% overall and 34.8% from deep. Wiggins has a career shooting average of 44.9% overall and 35.2% from deep but he’s hitting just 42.3% and 26.2% this season. Last year the Warriors were 10th in offensive efficiency at 1.118PPP. This season they rank 14th at 1.107PPP. Golden State has slipped defensively, also ranking 15th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.140PPP. Oklahoma City is the 4th best team in the NBA in offensive efficiency and average 119.6PPG with the 3rd best EFG% at 56.2%. The Thunder also play defense with the 7th best DEFF rating in the league and hold foes to the second lowest FG% in the league at 43.7%. The Thunder are a solid home team with a 30-21 SU record dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.3PPG. Golden State is 17-40 SU their last 57 road games with a negative differential of minus -3.7PPG. OKC is coming off a loss on the road to Houston and will be up for this home date with Golden State. Lay it! |
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12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago +1.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 55-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
#887 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have UIC a slight favorite here so value with the Flames as an underdog. They’ve been undervalued all season with a 6-1 mark ATS. UIC as played the much tougher schedule (ranked 118th SOS by KenPom) having faced 4 teams (half of their games) vs teams ranked inside the top 180. Jax State has played the 317th ranked SOS per KenPom and prior to this game vs Illinois Chicago they have played a total of ONE team vs a team ranked inside the top 180 and that was a 13 point loss. Per KenPom’s ratings, the Flames will be the best team Jacksonville State has faced this season (UIC ranked 124th) and the Gamecocks have already lost 4 games vs teams ranked outside the top 200. That includes 2 home game losses vs team ranked 200 or lower. The Flames have had a full week off after back to back losses UNC Greensboro (by 1 point) and vs Illinois State (by 5 points) so we expect them to be very focused on this one. Despite playing the tougher schedule, Illinois Chicago is better on both ends of the court. The Flames average 1.03 PPP offensively while allowing just 0.99 PPP on defense compared to Jax State who averaged 1.01 PPP while giving up 1.03 PPP. UIC has been fantastic defensively all season ranking 15th in eFG% allowed and 2nd nationally guarding the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 23% from deep. They should have their way on that end of the court vs a Gamecock offense that is outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, FT%, and scoring. We’ll take the better team getting points with motivation off 2 straight losses. |
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12-07-23 | Maple Leafs -129 v. Senators | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NHL game rotation #7: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) over Ottawa Senators, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Senators are off a huge upset win over the Rangers on Tuesday! Speaking of upsets, Ottawa also beat the Maple Leafs in Toronto earlier this season. This is a divisional game and the Leafs are set for revenge here. Toronto enters this game well rested as their last game was a home loss in overtime against the Bruins over the weekend. The Maple Leafs hold the rest edge here and have revenge plus the Senators are dead last in the division even though they have only played 5 true road games out of 20 games this season! No team in the NHL has fewer road games than Ottawa. The Senators are home for this game but the point is we are not convinced the Sens are even as strong as their 10-10 record on the season considering they have had a home-heavy schedule. The Sens only have 5 wins in regulation time in their last 16 games and they are yet to lose in OT or the shootout this season. The point is the Senators have been fortunate in terms of scheduling and in terms of good breaks in tight games. This is a great value spot to back one of the stronger teams in the league at a fair price because the Maple Leafs are on the road for this revenge match-up so the price is held to a reasonable level. Toronto goalie Joseph Woll has allowed 3 or less goals in regulation time of each of his last 5 starts and he is also seeking payback here as his worst start of the season was the game against Ottawa. The Senators won the game 6-3 but it was 3-3 in the 3rd period. The road team has won each of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Toronto had won 6 of last 7 meetings before that loss earlier this season and those 6 wins were by a score of 24-11 for an average score of 4-2. We look for the Leafs to resume their long-term dominance here. Great situation with revenge, rest, and also the better special teams. Toronto has been better on the power play and on the penalty kill this season in comparison with the Senators. Road team money line is our play here. |
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12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 5 PM ET - *NOTE THE EARLY TIPOFF* - We like the Bucks big here in this In Season Tourney game. The Pacers are coming off a HUGE home win over the Celtics and fed off the energy from the home crowd. Now the young Pacers are playing on a neutral court against a motivated Bucks team. Milwaukee is starting to figure things out with their new lineup and the addition of Dame Lillard. They beat a very good Knicks team the other night handily at home by 24-points. The Bucks are 10-2 SU their last twelve games while the Pacers check in with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games. This is the second meeting of the season for these two teams with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks at home by 2-points as a 1-point underdog. Milwaukee has beaten this franchise in 8 of the last ten meetings overall. Both teams are highly efficient on the offensive end of the court ranking 1st and 6th in OEFF but the Bucks hold an advantage on the defensive end of the court as the Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee also defends the 3-point line well by holding opponents to 36.3% shooting which is 13th best in the NBA. Conversely, the Pacers allow foes to make 39.1% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 28th and the Bucks own the 6th best 3PT% in the league. Fear the Deer! |
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12-06-23 | Richmond v. Northern Iowa -2 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Iowa -2 over Richmond, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with Richmond favored and quickly flipped to Northern Iowa as a small favorite and we agree. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion as we’re getting a veteran, desperate Panther team at home at near a pick-em. The reason we’re getting some solid value on UNI is because their record is just 2-6 so far this season. They’ve played the 20th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom while Richmond, who has a 5-3 record, has played the 270th most difficult schedule. The Panthers bring back 4 starters and 91% of their minutes from last season and 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents currently rank inside the top 100. They have a solid top 100 win over Stanford 73-51 and nearly beat Texas Tech losing by 2 points. Richmond, on the other hand, has played only 2 teams currently inside the top 125 and lost to both (Boston College & Wichita State). Those were also the Spiders only 2 road games this season losing both by 7 and 12 points. Four of Richmond’s five wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 250 and 3 of those wins were vs teams ranked 315 or lower. The Spiders played host to this match up last year as 6 points favorites and won by 13. However, they lost nearly everyone of note from last year’s team with only 1 starter returning. UNI is off a tough OT loss on Saturday @ Evansville and their last home game was their worst outing of the season (loss to Belmont) so we expect a huge effort in this one. If this game was played a few weeks ago we’d be laying a much larger number with Northern. Take the Panthers at home. |
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12-06-23 | Heat v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Raptors here and predict a double-digit win by the home team. Miami is dealing with two key injuries to Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo which has made them an ‘average’ team at best. The Heat have a positive net rating but have faced the 21st easiest schedule in the NBA. Toronto on the other hand has a slight negative differential but they have faced the 5th toughest schedule in the league this season. Miami is 6-6 SU on the road this season with a +1.8PPG differential. Toronto is 5-4 SU at home with an average MOV of +3.8PPG. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, but the Heat are clearly not at full strength here. The Raptors are coming off a home loss to the Knicks but had won 3 straight at home by 7, 13 and 29-points. Toronto owned Miami last season by winning 3 of the four regular season meetings SU, covering all four. The Raptors are 31-21 ATS at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +4PPG. We like Toronto at home in this one. |
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12-06-23 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - We are surprised this Total opened as high as it did and like the value with an Under wager here. These two teams are known for their defenses as the Magic allow just 1.073 points per possession which ranks 3rd in the league, while the Cavs rank 13th allowing 1.136PPP. Cleveland is the 10th slowest paced team in the league at 98.5 possessions per game. Orlando plays slightly faster at 100.1 possessions p/game. In their last ten games the Magic have recently faced Brooklyn, Washington (2x’s), Charlotte, Indiana and Chicago who all rank 21st or worse in DEFF. Tonight, they face a Cavs team that allows opponents to shoot just 45.3% (7th) and give up the 8th fewest points in the league at 111.2PPG. Orlando isn’t a great offensive team either, ranking 19th in offensive efficiency and they don’t shoot it particularly well from deep at 35.4% which is 21st in the NBA. Cleveland is worse in OEFF ranking 22nd overall and they hit just 34.3% from beyond the Arc which ranks 26th. In four meetings last season these two teams had totals set of 213.5, 223, 217.5 and 215.5, which are all significantly lower than tonight’s O/U. Three of those four games all finished with 212 or less total points. The bet here is UNDER. |
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12-05-23 | North Texas v. Boise State UNDER 123.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
#639/640 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 123.5 Points – North Texas vs Boise State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams that play very slow should lead to a low scoring game here. North Texas is notorious for playing as slow as any team in the country and this year is no different as they rank 358th out of 362 teams in average possession per game at 64. Boise State is right near the bottom as well in that statistic ranking 301st at 68 possessions per game. Both teams rank inside the top 65 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing less than 1.0 PPP. Both also rank outside the top 115 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in field goals made per game. Boise has played 6 games vs Division 1 opponents and only 2 of those have topped 126 total points. Those games were vs Va Tech and Clemson who rank inside the top 65 nationally in offensive efficiency. UNT has scored 79 points in each of their last 2 games but one was vs Angelo State and the other vs Mississippi Valley State who ranks 355th in defensive efficiency. Prior to that they played 3 straight neutral site games and averaged just 59 PPG in those games. What impressed us was in their neutral site games they faced 2 efficient offenses who are fast paced and held them to 53 points (St Johns) and 66 points (LSU). Those 2 games vs much faster paced and better offensive teams than Boise ended with total points scored of 105 and 128 respectively. This one should be a grinder and we’ll grab the Under. |
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12-05-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 122-146 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* NY Knicks +5.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks are still going through the growing pains with their new lineup and the addition of Damian Lillard. Milwaukee is still one of the best teams in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.187 points per possession but defensively they rank 20th after finishing 4th a year ago. New York owns the 8th best DEFF rating allowing 1.108PPP while also ranking 11th in OEFF. The Knicks also have the better overall point differential in the league at plus +3.8PPG, the Bucks average +2.9PPG. New York is one of 12 teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.5PPG. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU at home but their average margin of victory is only +2.7PPG. That is a significant drop from last years average of +5.9PPG at home for the Bucks which was the 6th best in the league. These two teams met in early November on this floor with the Bucks winning 110-105. Since that loss the Knicks have won 10 of their last thirteen games. The last three meetings have been decided by 6-points or less. We expect this game to go down to the wire and will grab the points. |
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12-04-23 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Kings | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - This In Season tournament starts tonight and has two great matchups with one of them being this game between the Pelicans and Kings. The Pelicans are at full strength right now and currently undervalued by the oddsmakers. New Orleans beat this Kings team twice at home in mid-November by 36 and 5-points but played without starting PG CJ McCollum in both. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram carried the scoring load with 105 combined total points in the two games. New Orleans in their last five games own the 12th best offensive efficiency rating and the 4th best defensive efficiency rating. In comparison, the Kings are 13th in OEFF and 16th in DEFF. The Pelicans have thrived as an underdog this season with a 8-3-1 ATS record while the Kings are just 4-7 ATS as a favorite. New Orleans has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Kings and in this tourney opener we like the Dog and the points. |
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12-04-23 | Bengals v. Jaguars -10 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -10 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals offense will have big time problems generating anything in this game with Joe Burrow on the sidelines. Last week vs Pittsburgh the Bengals back up QB Browning had decent numbers (227 yards passing) but he had a number of turnover worthy plays that didn’t turn into turnovers. He threw 1 interception but that could have easily been 3 or 4. The Bengals scored 10 points vs the Steelers and we don’t see them generating any more in this game vs a solid Jacksonville defense (5th DVOA defense). Here’s the problem with Cincinnati’s offense in this game. Not only are the playing an inexperienced back up QB but they can’t run the ball at all (32nd in the NFL) which puts even more pressure on Browning to be perfect. The Jags run defense is 4th in the NFL allowing just 87 YPG so we don’t see Cincinnati’s run offense magically coming alive in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Jags are playing well offensively. They’ve put up 58 points the last 2 weeks combined but it could have been more. Last week vs Houston they averaged 6.5 YPP in a 24-21 win but they crossed into Houston territory on 8 of their 11 possessions. Jacksonville had 445 total yards but averaged only 1 point for every 18.5 yards gained which was well below their season average of 1 point every 14.5 yards gained entering last week. If they hit their yards per point average in that game they would have scored 31 points. Now they face a Cincy defense that ranks dead last in the NFL YPP allowed, 31st in total defense, 29th in rush defense, and 26th in pass defense. Last week Pittsburgh only scored 16 points on this defense but also had over 400 yards. Prior to last week Cincinnati had allowed 30+ points in their previous 2 games. This defense also ranks near the bottom of the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate which should allow the Jags to keep drives alive in this one. Jacksonville has played a tough home slate already facing SF, KC, and Houston, but in their home games vs lower tier opponents they rolled Indianapolis by 17 and Tennessee by 20. We see a similar outcome here. Lay it. |
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12-04-23 | Furman v. Arkansas OVER 158.5 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
#863/864 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 158.5 Points – Furman vs Arkansas, Monday at 8 PM ET - In this one we have 2 of the faster paced teams in the country so we’ll get plenty of offensive possessions. The Razors are 35th in possession per game at 76.4 and Furman is 58th averaging 75.5. Both offenses are averaging over 80 PPG on the season and each defense allows north of 75 PPG. Arkansas has played 5 home games and scored at least 80 in 4 of those games for an average of 84 PPG. They should have plenty of success here vs a Furman defense that ranks 227th in defensive efficiency and 258th in eFG% defense. The Paladins have played 5 games away from home this season (road + neutral games) and they’ve given up at least 78 points in 4 of those games for an average of 82 PPG. Furman can put up points as we discussed and they are very good shooting team hitting nearly 49% of their shots on the season (36th nationally). Not an aberration as they return a number of key players from last year’s team which finished with a 26-8 record and landed in the top 30 in shooting percentage. These teams have combined to play 15 games this season and 12 have gone Over the total. We’ll call for another high scoring game on Monday night. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 PM ET - Philadelphia has faced a tough gauntlet of games including last weeks OT thriller against the Bills. Philly trailed for much of that game but managed a game tying FG with .20 seconds left to send it to OT. In poor conditions the Bills and Eagles put up 61 points in regulation. The Philly defense was shredded for over 500 yards by the Bills last week and have given up 22.4PPG on the season which ranks bottom third in the NFL. The Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per game allowed (341), yards per play (5.5) and are especially vulnerable to the pass ranking 29th in passing YPG given up. They will have a hard time stopping a 49ers offense that is 3rd in yards per game gained, 2nd in yards per play at 6.6, 7th in rushing and 8th in passing YPG. The Niners offense had scored 30+ points in five straight games to start the season then had 3 lower scoring outputs with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup. With his return they have scored 34, 27 and 31-points in three straight games. The Philadelphia offense will face a stiff test versus this top ranked 49er defense, but they have more than enough weapons on that side of the football. Philadelphia ranks top 13 in most key offensive categories including being 3rd in scoring at 28.2PPG. The Eagles have scored 30+ points in 4 of five home games this season and 28+ in all five. It’s not a stretch for both teams to score in the 30’s in this one. |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans -3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Texans -3 vs Denver Broncos, 1:00 PM ET - We have lost value in this game as the number crossed -3 but we still like the Texans in this situation as long as they are under -4. The Broncos have won 5 straight games and certainly played better but we aren’t sold yet. Four of those games came at home and two of those wins came by 3-total points. They were also outgained in four of those five wins. Houston was on a bit of a heater themselves with 3 straight wins prior to last weeks huge loss to the Jaguars. The Texans with CJ Stroud have been a huge surprised this season with a 6-5 SU record with all six wins coming in the last nine games. These teams have identical records, yet the Texans rank 12th in overall DVOA while the Broncos are 22nd. Houston is 12th in offensive DVOA, Denver 12th, the Texans are 20th in defensive DVOA, the Broncos are 32nd. The Texans are averaging 6.0 yards per play which is the 4th best number in the league. Houston is 6th in yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game at 276. The Broncos defense allows 388YPG which is 30th, give up 6.3YPP (31st) and give up the 23rd most passing YPG. Denver wants to run the football with the 8th best rush offense, but Houston stops the run extremely well allowing 3.6 yards per rush which is the 3rd best number in the NFL. Denver has only played 4 road games and they go to Houston where the Texans have won 4 of their last five. The Broncos run comes to an end here. |
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12-02-23 | Louisville +1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
#321 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville +1.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 8 PM ET- Florida State struggled last week @ Florida but knocked off the Gators 24-15 in a game they trailed 12-0 late in the 2nd quarter. Despite the win the Noles were outgained in the game and had only 90 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC compared to 146 yards rushing for the Gators. In their first game after losing starting QB Travis the offense was not impressive. 2nd string QB Rodemaker was underwhelming completing less than 50% of his passes for only 134 yards vs a team that didn’t even qualify for a bowl game. He is dealing with a concussion issue and may not play in this game, if so FSU has 2 very inexperienced QB’s behind Rodemaker. Louisville’s defense as a whole is very good (top 20 nationally) but their run defense is the strength of that unit allowing only 96 YPG on 3.3 YPC (12th best run defense in the country). If FSU struggles to run as they did vs Florida, that puts this game on the back of Rodemaker which will make it tough. The Cards are coming off a loss vs in state rival Kentucky getting outscored 17-7 in the 4th quarter losing 38-31. U of L outgained the Wildcats 403 to 289 in that loss but had 3 turnovers, which led directly to 10 Kentucky points. The Cats also had a 100 yard kick return for TD which was too much to overcome. The Cards are 10-2 on the season and in their 2 losses they outgained their opponents by a combined 833 to 577. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedule and their YPG differential is nearly the same. The difference is FSU did their damage for all but 1 game with their high level QB Travis under center. With him out, we give Louisville the edge here. As an undefeated team that absolutely had to win this game to have any consideration for the CFP, the Seminoles have all the pressure on them in this game. We like the Cards in Charlotte on Saturday night. |
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12-02-23 | Magic v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 101-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The Magic are absolutely cooking right now with 9 straight wins and an overall 14-5 SU record for the season. The last team to beat this Magic teams was this Nets team back on November 14th. Brooklyn catches the Magic in a favorable scheduling situation here as Orlando is playing their second leg of a back to back. Orlando beat Washington last night and will also be playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in seven days. Brooklyn is rested here with their last game coming on Nov. 30th, a home loss which makes this situation even better. The Nets are 3-1 SU their last four games and are finally getting healthy with five of their top six players available tonight. These teams have a similar net rating by our metrics but the Nets have played our 11th toughest schedule compared to the Magics 28th rated. We like the Nets advantage with their 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting versus the Magic’s 17th ranked 3PT% defense. Orlando typically takes advantage of teams by forcing turnovers and turning them into points, but the Nets are 11th in TO’s so they won’t give the Magic that edge. The Nets beat this team at home in mid-November 124-104 and we are betting on a similar outcome today. |
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12-02-23 | George Mason v. Toledo -3.5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Toledo -3.5 over George Mason, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for a solid Toledo team, coming off 3 straight losses, and finally back at home where they normally do damage. The Rockets are one of the top few programs in the MAC with 3 consecutive 20+ win seasons and a 77-28 SU record since the start of the 2021 season. At home they’re nearly unbeatable with a 42-4 SU their last 46 home games. The Rockets have played a very tough schedule to date (77th SOS) and they have lost 3 straight, all to top 75 teams on a neutral court, making this home game very important. Those 3 losses came by 2, 6, and 8 points and they have now had a full week off to stew about their losses and make corrections heading into this home game vs George Mason. The Patriots step into this game with a 6-1 record but are overvalued due to their poor strength of schedule (319th). Four of their seven opponents so far this season are currently ranked outside the top 200 and they have yet to play a true road game. George Mason did play 2 neutral site games losing to Charlotte by 5 and barely getting by South Dakota State by 2 points, both teams ranked lower than this Toledo team per KenPom. The Patriots had a solid 20-13 season last year but they had to replace much of their roster with only 1 starter and 26% of their minutes returning this season. On top of that HC English moved on and is now the head man at Providence and he took 2 of Mason’s top players with him. This is a rematch from last year when George Mason pulled the upset at home as a 3 point dog hitting 51% of their shots in the process. Now we’re getting Toledo at home, at basically the same number, in a perfect situation. Lay the small spread here with the Rockets at home. |
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12-02-23 | Illinois v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
#649/650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 136 Points – Illinois vs Rutgers, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The last 2 years these 2 teams have met twice and the total points scored didn’t reach 130 in either game. We see a similar scenario playing out on Saturday. These were 2 of the top defensive teams in the country last season (both in top 25 in defensive efficiency) and that’s continued this year where they are both currently in the top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. As far as straight defensive FG% these teams are currently #1 and #2 in the nation with the Illini allowing teams to make only 34% of their shots and the Scarlet Knights allowing 34.6%. Illinois has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 60 points or less and only Marquette who plays fast and is the 7th most efficient offense in the country, got to 70 points (71-64 Final). Rutgers has also given up 60 points or less in 4 of their 6 games and the most they’ve allowed this year is 68. On offense neither is all that great. Rutgers has topped 71 points only once this season yet they haven’t played a single defense ranked in the top 100 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. The Illini have better overall numbers on offense but they’ve faced only 2 defenses all season ranked inside the top 150 and they were held to 64 points in each of those games. Both offenses rank outside the top 220 in 3 point FG% and neither shoot FT’s very well (57% for Illinois & 65% for Rutgers). Illinois prefers to play fast but Rutgers is a slow paced team and at home so we expect them to control the tempo here. Under is the call. |
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12-02-23 | Boise State v. UNLV OVER 60.5 | Top | 44-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – UNLV vs Boise State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These offenses are humming right now and we don’t think they slow down here. After a slow start to the season offensively, the Broncos have now topped 30 points in 9 of their last 10 games. The only time they did not hit that mark was last week vs Air Force who has the 6th best defense in the country and Boise still put up 27 points and over 400 yards at 7.4 YPP in that win. UNLV has topped 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season including 4 games in a row. Last week we were on the Over 59 in the UNLV vs SJSU game and the final score was 37-31. That game could have had more points as the 2 teams combined for only 6 punts in 22 possessions and the offenses combined to average right around 7.0 YPP. Both defenses in this game rank outside the top 90 in YPP allowed and outside the top 70 in total defense so we look for both offenses to continue their success. Boise’s defense looks like it has improved over the last 3 or 4 games however a closer look reveals they’ve been pretty lucky. Last week they gave up 19 points in an Air Force offense that has been in a freefall scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. A week earlier they held a good Utah State offense to 10 points but the Aggies had 4 turnovers and were shut out on downs 3 times in Boise territory. The only 2 teams the Rebels held under 20 points this season were Wyoming and New Mexico and they allowed at least 27 points in 7 games this season. This game is being played in a controlled environment @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas so perfect conditions for scoring. Over is our play on this game. |
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12-01-23 | North Dakota v. CS-Fullerton -4.5 | Top | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cal State Fullerton -4.5 over North Dakota, Friday at 9 PM ET - North Dakota steps into this game with a 6-1 record, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far. They’ve faced only 1 team ranked inside the top 280 and that was Iowa and they lost that game by 42 points. The Fighting Hawks are in a very tough situational spot as well playing their 4th game in 7 days. They played in Conway, Arkansas on Saturday and Sunday, rushed home to face Concordia College of Minnesota on Tuesday and now they are on the West Coast a few days later. CS Fullerton has a 2-4 record but they’ve played the much tougher schedule. They’ve already faced 4 teams ranked 115th or higher and every team they’ve played is ranked higher than everyone on North Dakota’s schedule so far not named Iowa. The Titans have played only 1 home game the entire season prior to tonight and that was a 30 point win. Titan Gym is a tough place for opposing teams to visit as CSF has a record of 23-4 SU at home since the start of the 2022 season. Despite their sub .500 record and playing the much tougher schedule, the Titans PPP differential is actually better than North Dakota’s signaling some solid value on the home team. This is also a revenger from last season when CSF traveled to North Dakota and lost as a 5.5 point favorite. Now we’re laying the same number with them as home as the perception of each team is off due to their overall records. Half of the Fighting Hawks 6 wins have come by 2 points or less so they could be sitting with a much different record at this point. They are also one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation (348th) and one of the worst at defending the arc (349th). We’ll lay the number with Cal State Fullerton and look for a solid cover on Friday night. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
#305 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Oregon -9.5 over Washington, Saturday at 8 PM ET - There is a reason the team that has 1 loss on the season is favored by nearly double digits over the undefeated team. On top of that, the favored team in this game lost to the undefeated team this year yet still is a hefty chalk. We’ve been saying for weeks this Washington team is trending down and has been since they beat Oregon 36-33 back in mid October. The Huskies have now been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games including last week’s 24-21 home win over Washington State. The Huskies needed a last second FG to pull that one off and they barely had 300 total yards of offense vs a Wazzu defense that came into the game 83rd nationally in total defense. Even in their win over the Ducks this season, Washington had 7 fewer first downs and they were outgained by 125 yards and that was when the Huskies were clicking on all cylinders. They are just 2-6 ATS their last 8 games and the defense has fallen all the way to 84th nationally allowing over 400 total YPG. They’ve won 1 game in Pac 12 play by more than 10 points so this team has been flirting with disaster but remains undefeated. Meanwhile the Ducks defense ranks in the top 15 nationally and has allowed 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Since their loss to Washington, the Ducks have won 6 in a row with 5 of those coming by at least 14 points. Despite having 1 less win than UW in Pac 12 play (Washington 9-0 and Oregon 8-1) the Ducks point differential in league play is +225 compared to +72 for Washington! Oregon also averages over 100 YPG more than Washington in conference play while allowing over 100 less than the Huskies in Pac 12 games. Oregon is the much better and more complete team right now and with 1 loss already, if they get a chance to pour it on they will do just that in their last attempt to make College Football’s Final 4. No holding back in this one. We like the Ducks by double digits. |
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12-01-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 236.5 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 236.5 San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - The Spurs are coming off a game last night in which they allowed 137 points to the Hawks but scored 135 themselves. When playing without rest this season the Spurs have allowed 120 and 152 points. The Spurs allow 1.193 points per possession which ranks 26th in the league. They give up 123.4PPG which is the 3rd most. We know there will be plenty of possessions in this contest as the Spurs are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.1 possessions per game. New Orleans also prefers to play up-tempo with the 8th fastest paced number in the NBA. The Pelicans are at full strength here with the return of CJ McCollum and are coming off a 124-point outing against the 76ers. New Orleans should have an easy time scoring here against this Spurs defense that ranks 27th or worse in: FG% defense, field goals made per game, field goals attempted and 3PT% against. With the Pels having a high probability of scoring 125 or more points we like this game to go Over the total. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -8.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys -8.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - Being a professional sports bettor for over 30 years makes it very difficult to lay the points with Dallas here as this play has ‘public’ written all over it. We will make an exception though and don’t feel this line is high enough yet after opening with Dallas minus -6 or -7. The Cowboys at home have put up an average of 31.5PPG and have margins of victory of over 20PPG in 5 wins. The Dallas offense at home averages 7.0 yards per play which is 7th best in the league and total over 377YPG. Dak Prescott and the offense have the #1 ranked completion percentage at home at 70.3% and average the 4th most passing YPG at home. Seattle has taken a turn for the worse this season after a solid start and have lost 3 of their last four games. The Seahawks road numbers are especially bad as they are averaging just 10.6PPG in their last three road contests and two of those came against below average defenses of the Rams and Bengals. Seattle’s offense is below average in most key categories including total YPG, rushing and passing yards per game. Thursday, they face a Dallas D that is 3rd in yards per game allowed, yards per play allowed and give up just 16.8PPG which is 4th best. The Cowboys have won 13 straight home games and have scored 38+ in four straight in AT&T Stadium. |
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11-30-23 | Hawks -7.5 v. Spurs | Top | 137-135 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off two straight losses to the Celtics and Cavaliers and now step down in talent to face the Spurs. This game becomes much more important for the Hawks off those two losses with a road date against the Bucks looming. As far as the Spurs are concerned, they have lost 12 straight games and even Wemby can’t save this team this season. Maybe politics and other concerns have damped Coach Popovich’s competitive drive? No matter what the issues are, we do know this. The Spurs own the 3rd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -12.4PPG. At home they are losing by an average of -8.3PPG. They rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 19th in DEFF. In comparison, the Hawks allow 1.238 points per possession (27th) but they beat teams offensively by averaging 1.246PPP which is 3rd best in the NBA. In six of their last seven home games the Spurs have lost by 7 or more points. Atlanta recently beat the Wizards on the road by 28-points as a 9.5 point favorite. The Wiz and Spurs are similar teams and we expect another double digit win by the visitor in this one. |
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11-30-23 | UL - Lafayette +4.5 v. Samford | Top | 65-88 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
#747 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana +4.5 over Samford, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We have this game power rated dead even @ Samford so we’ll take the points. Louisiana is the better team and they’ve played the tougher schedule so far. The Rajin Cajuns are 5-2 with their 2 setbacks coming vs teams both rated higher than this Samford squad. ULL lost @ Toledo, the highest rated team in the MAC, by 9 points but Louisiana led that game by 16 midway through the 2nd half. Louisiana gathered only 3 points from the FT line in that game while Toledo scored 20 from the stripe which was obviously the difference. The Cajuns shot better from inside and outside the arc in that game but were done in by 10 more personal fouls. Their other loss was vs Wright State by 6 and the Raiders shot lights out in that game hitting 56% from the field. They’ve since won 3 in a row and are taking on a Samford team that has played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far. The Bulldogs were rolled in their first 2 games vs Purdue (lost by 53) and VCU (lost by 10) and they’ve since won 5 straight games all vs teams ranked 293 or lower per KenPom. Samford has played the 346th easiest schedule and yet they have the same points per possession differential as Louisiana who has played the much tougher slate. Despite playing the tougher schedule the Cajuns are the much better shooting team (49th overall shooting % and 11th three point %) and they’ve mad 78% of their FT’s. Samford’s defense ranks 250th defending the arc and they foul a lot (23% of opponents points from the stripe) which doesn’t match up well with ULL. On the other end of the court Samford relies heavily on the 3 point shot but will be facing a Louisiana team that has allowed just 25% from deep (15th best nationally). We give Louisiana a great shot to win this game outright but if not, at worst it should go to the wire so we’ll grab the points. |
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11-29-23 | 76ers v. Pelicans OVER 227.5 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 227.8 total points being scored. We don’t expect this game to be ‘average’. The host Pelicans like to play at a faster rate as they rank 8th in possessions per game. Philadelphia slightly lower than league average at 98.8 possessions per game. Philly scores their points by being highly efficient on the offensive end of the court averaging 1.202 points per possession which is 3rd in the NBA. The Pels aren’t as efficient but still manage 112.9PPG. We are seeing New Orleans trend in the positive direction offensively with an efficiency rating of 1.168PPP which ranks 12th best over the last 5 games. Defensively these two teams rank 12th and 13th in points allowed per possession. The Sixers average 17.5 fast break points per game, the Pelicans average 14.8 which is 11th best in the league. Both teams also feast in the paint ranking 9th and 11th in points in the lane. Last season in the two meetings these two combined for 231 and 243 total points. It all adds up to a higher scoring game between these two teams. |
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11-29-23 | Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
#677 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tennessee +2.5 over North Carolina, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good Tennessee team coming off back to back losses in Hawaii one week ago. Those losses were to Purdue (by 4) and Kansas (by 8) who are 2 of the top 3 teams in the nation in KenPom’s power ratings. The Vols have also already faced Syracuse (in Hawaii) and played @ Wisconsin (both double digit wins) in what has been a very tough schedule thus far. On the other side, UNC has played only 1 team ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 teams and that was a loss to Villanova. It’s also very possible the Heels will be without one of their top offensive players, Cormac Ryan (11 PPG), as he injured his ankle late last week in a game and hadn’t practiced at all as of Monday night. Missing his offense will be tough vs a Tennessee team that ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency (#1 last year as well) limiting teams to just 0.87 points per possession. The Vols had their chances against both Kansas and Purdue. The led in the 2nd half of both of those games but scored only 5 points in the final 6 minutes vs Kansas and had a shot to win in the final minute vs the Boilers. Now we’re getting a rested (off for a week) veteran team (all upperclassmen in rotation) off 2 straight losses. They will play with some urgency here and our power ratings have Tennessee as the better team and they are getting points. UNC’s 3 home games this year have been vs teams outside the top 150 and the Heels lost 3 home games a year ago. Last time the Vols paid a visit to the Dean Smith Dome in November 2021, they walked away with a 17 point win as an underdog. We don’t look for a blowout by either team here but we like the Vols to pull the minor upset. |
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11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -2 | Top | 123-124 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -2 vs Golden State Warriors – 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors typically get everyone’s best shot on a nightly basis with their lofty reputation. The Kings are no exception here and even have a little more to play for after the Warriors knocked them out of the Playoffs last season and beat them twice this year. On Oct 27th the Warriors went to Sacramento and won 122-114 as a 3-point dog. Then on Nov 1st the Warriors won at home 102-101 but the Kings were without All-Star point guard DeAaron Fox. Fox is averaging just under 30PPG and 6APG and is clearly one of the Kings two best players along with Sabonis. Golden State is just 3-8 SU their last eleven games and two of those wins came against the struggling Spurs and Pistons. Sacramento is 7-2 SU their last nine games and coming off a big road win over the Timberwolves. The Kings are a respectable 29-21 SU at home since the start of last season with an average +/- of +2.7PPG. Golden State is 17-38 SU away since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. We like the Kings to get a measure of revenge in this one. |
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11-28-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -125 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
#40 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers (-130) over Vegas Golden Knights, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We have been waiting for this one since the start of the season and the way it has been set up here is perfect. Vegas is in a B2B spot. The Golden Knights used their top goalie, Hill, last night. That means Thompson will be patrolling the crease tonight. Though Thompson has been okay this season, Hill has been the top guy and the Knights have lost each of Thompson's last 4 starts. This is a huge revenge game for the Oilers as they were eliminated in the Western Conference Semifinals by Vegas in May and the Golden Knights went on to win the Stanley Cup! What has made this situation even stronger (again we had this spot circled BEFORE the season started) is that the Golden Knights have now lost 7 of last 10 games and have been struggling to score goals of late. Now couple that with the fact that Edmonton seems to have turned the corner after a slow start this season. The Oilers just wrapped up a road trip with a much-needed 5-0 blowout win. For an encore, they came home and delivered an 8-2 thrashing to get warmed up for this huge revenge game. Remember it was right here in Edmonton that the Golden Knights ended the Oilers season last May! Now it is time for payback for the home team here. Since Kris Knoblauch took over in Edmonton for the fired Jay Woodcroft two weeks ago, the Oilers have gone a perfect 3-0 here on home ice! Edmonton is well-rested here as they have played only once since Friday while this will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for Vegas and it is a back to back spot. In this stretch of 7 losses in 10 games, Vegas has scored an average of only 1 goal in the 7 defeats! Also, they scored just one goal in regulation time of their most recent win (in OT over Dallas). The Golden Knights have not won a game in regulation time in a week and half! We like the goal-scoring confidence the Oilers have displayed in their last two games and they are getting their swagger back and the set up for this game is perfect. Looks like a solid home win is on the way in this one! Home team money line is our play here. |
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11-28-23 | LSU v. Syracuse -110 | Top | 57-80 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Syracuse pick-em over LSU, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with LSU as a slight favorite and has moved to a pick-em as of this writing on Monday evening. We agree with the move. We actually have the Orange favored by 3 with our power ratings so still some solid value. This is LSU’s first true road game of the season and they’ve been poor in that spot to say the least. Last year they were 0-9 SU in true road games and dating back to the start of the 2021 season they are 2-17 SU in road games. The JMA Wireless Dome (we still call it the Carrier Dome) can be a tough place to shoot for opposing teams. The Tigers had a losing record a year ago at 14-19 and they were a poor shooting team a year ago making only 41% of their shots (337th nationally). While they’ve shot the ball better early this season, they need to prove they can do it on the road in a tough environment. The Tigers have a number of transfers (4 new starters) trying to mesh early in the season but their #1 transfer, Jalen Cook, has been ruled ineligible this season and won’t play. LSU has had a problem with turnovers coughing it up on 19% of their possession despite playing only 1 team ranked inside the top 200 in defensive turnover percentage. Here they face a Cuse team that has been great at forcing turnovers almost 22% of the time (top 40 nationally). Syracuse is 4-2 on the season and their 2 losses came vs top 10 teams (Tennessee & Gonzaga) in Hawaii. They are undefeated in their 3 homes games and averaging 84 PPG. The Cuse has been back from Hawaii for 6 days with a chance to regroup and refresh. LSU just 7-18 ATS their last 25 games and this will be a tough spot for them as they try to adapt to their new line up. Take Syracuse. |
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11-27-23 | Bears +3 v. Vikings | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears are back at full strength with Justin Fields back in at QB and we like them to give Minnesota problems on Monday night. Chicago played @ Detroit last Sunday and led for much of the 2nd half including holding a 12 point lead with under 3:30 remaining in the game. The Lions pulled out a miracle with 17 points from that point on to beat Chicago by 5. Minnesota had their 5 game winning streak ended with a 21-20 loss @ Denver last week. New QB Dobbs has looked very solid for the Vikings but struggled in the 2nd half last week leading Minnesota to just 10 points along with throwing an interception. Dobbs was also very solid to start the year with Arizona but as teams figured out the Cards offense and how they were going to use him, he tapered off and we wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here. In the first meeting this season, Minnesota was at 100% with Cousins at QB and really struggled to beat the Bears 19-13. In that game Minnesota only scored 1 offensive TD and had a long fumble recovery for a TD which was the difference in the game. Chicago had more first downs and outgained the Vikings in that loss but had 3 turnovers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins this season have come by a single score and they’ve only won 1 game by more than 8 points. Four of Chicago’s last five losses have been 1 score games. The Bears offense should get back on track with Fields back in the line up and their defense has been very good as of late jumping from near the bottom of the NFL in late September to 15th in total defense where they currently stand. Minnesota has been historically poor on Monday nights with a 5-13 spread record since 2009. We think Chicago has a great shot at the upset here. Take the points. |
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11-27-23 | Northern Illinois +13.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 67-89 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Illinois +13.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern was overvalued coming into the season which has shown through in their ATS record which is 1-4. On the other end, Northern Illinois is undervalued with a perfect 5-0 ATS record (5-1 SU). The Huskies have played a fairly tough schedule (79th) and their only loss came in the season opener @ Marquette who is a top 10 team. Northwestern has a 4-1 SU record and none of their wins have come by this current spread of 13 despite playing a number of teams ranked much lower than NIU. The Cats are also coming off a 9 day layoff which we don’t think is ideal and they have bigger fish to fry as they host Purdue on Friday. NIU has shown an ability to shoot the ball well thus far ranking in the top 80 in both eFG% and 3 point %. This team should be able to hit some 3’s here facing a NW defense that is allowing opponents to hit almost 39% from deep this season (323rd defensively). The Huskies also get to the FT line a lot (25% of their points have come from the stripe) and if they can do that along with winning the 3 point line this game should be fairly close. NW is not a good shooting team thus far especially from beyond the arc where they’ve made only 29%. Last year Northwestern won this game at home by 17 points and this year they are facing an NIU team that is rated 100 spots higher, per KenPom, than last year’s team. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are currently 20+ spots lower right now compared to where they ended last season. This is a big game for NIU playing an instate big boy while NW just wants to get out of this one with a win and get ready to host the #1 team in the country on Friday. Take the points. |
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11-27-23 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 236 | Top | 126-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 236 Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - Tonight, the Wiz face a Detroit team that is 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.178 points per possession on the season and allow opponents to shoot 50.3% on the season which is 30th or last in the league. Washington is last in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.210PPP and give up over 125PPG. Washington is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA with 103.3 possessions per game. Detroit is 13th in pace of play and prefers an up-tempo approach. The Wizards have allowed 130 or more points in 4 of their last six games. Detroit has given up 119 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. Washington should have a solid shooting night with the 7th best FG% shooting team in the NBA going up against the 17th ranked FG% Pistons defense. Everyone shoots well against Washington as we mentioned, and both score well in transition with the Pistons ranking 2nd and the Wiz 8th in fast break efficiency. It’s a big number but we like Over. |
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11-26-23 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - The Nuggets are coming off a 1-4 five game road stretch and are playing with only 1 day rest. On the season the Nuggets average 1.171 points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA but in their last five games they are averaging 1.163PPP. The decline in scoring of course has a lot to do with the injury to All-Star PG Murray and his 16.3PPG missing from the lineup. Denver allows just 107.6PPG at home this season which is the 4th best number in the NBA. In comparison, the Spurs are averaging only 106.4PPG on the road which is 17th. On the season the Spurs rank 2nd to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.066PPP while shooting just 45.5% (24th). The young Spurs typically want to play fast but the home team Nuggets will dictate tempo and they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league. Denver is on a 6-2 Under run, the Spurs have stayed Under in 3 straight. Bet UNDER! |
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11-26-23 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
#743 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Texas A&M pick-em to +1.5 over Iowa State, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Florida. Both teams coming off losses on Friday with A&M losing by 7 vs FAU (37th rated team per KenPom) and Iowa State losing by 9 vs Virginia Tech (49th rated team per KenPom). The Aggies loss vs a very good Florida Atlantic team came down to the Owls shooting lights out from deep (16 of 30 from 3) and making 20 FT’s compared to 15 for A&M. Thus FAU outscored the Aggies by 23 points from beyond the arc + FT line and only won by 7. We look for this veteran team to bounce back tonight. The Aggies were 25-10 last year and they return 4 starters along with 81% of their minutes from that team. That includes PG Taylor who is one of the top players in the country. They are 5-1 SU on the season and have played a tough schedule already with 4 of their 6 opponents sitting inside the top 100. Iowa State is also 5-1 but they’ve played one of the weakest slates in the country with 2 top 100 teams and the other 4 ranking outside the top 260 including 3 outside the top 300. The Cyclones defensive numbers are great so far this season but let’s put that into perspective. They’ve played only 1 offense this year ranked in the top 100 and lost (vs Va Tech) and 4 of their other opponents are currently ranked 277 or lower in offensive efficiency with 3 outside the top 325. Now they face an A&M offense ranked 5th nationally in offensive efficiency. ISU thrives on creating turnovers to open up offensive opportunities but the Aggies have a veteran backcourt the rarely turns the ball over (13% TO rate – 19th best in the country) so we don’t think the Cyclones will be able to take advantage of that as they have vs lesser opponents this season. Because they are aggressive defensively, ISU fouls a lot and A&M makes their FT’s (76%) at a high rate. On the other end the Cyclones make only 68% of their freebies. A&M has been a covering machine with an ATS record of 50-30 their last 80 games. Our power ratings have A&M favored by 3 here and we’re getting them at dead even. Take Texas A&M here. |
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11-26-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
#269/270 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Many still view KC as the same high scoring offense as last year’s team that led the league averaging just over 29 PPG. That’s not the case as the Chiefs are struggling offensively and averaging a full TD less than last season (22 PPG). The defense is what is carrying the Chiefs this season as they rank 4th in total defense and DVOA defense and 5th in YPP allowed. They are allowing only 16 PPG which is good for 3rd in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Baltimore. They have held 8 of their last 9 opponents to 21 or less and we don’t expect Vegas to get near that number with rookie QB O’Connell under center again this week. Last week the Raiders scored only 13 points @ Miami and in the 5 games that O’Connell has taken snaps they’ve been held to 17 or fewer points 4 times. The Raiders have been held to 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 meetings with KC and this year the Chiefs have the best defense they’ve had during that stretch. What’s impressed us about Las Vegas is the huge upgrade they’ve made defensively. After finishing last season ranked 26th in PPG allowed, they rank 12th in the NFL allowing 20 PPG this season and have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 points or less. Even vs the potent Miami offense last week Vegas allowed only 20 points. We think they’ll continue to play well in this division game vs Kansas City. The implied score in this game based on the spread (KC -10) and the total (43.5) is right around 27-17. We don’t think the Las Vegas offense will get to 17 vs this Chiefs defense and KC has only topped 27 points TWICE the entire season. Under is the call on Sunday afternoon. |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans UNDER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48 Points - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – 1:00 PM CT - This is a big game for the potential winner in the AFC South with the Jags holding a 1-game lead in the standings, but the Texans beat the Jags earlier in the season. The first meeting had a total of 43.5 points and finished with 54 points being scored in a 37-17 Texans win. There were several big plays in the game with an 85-kick return for a TD along with a 68-yards touchdown pass. There was also a blocked FG that turned into great field position and a quick score for Houston. Eliminate a few of those outlier plays and that came stays Under the total of 43.5 points. With the added value in this O/U number we have to bet Under. Going back to September 17th we find that games involving Jacksonville have totaled 48 or less points 6 out of nine games. Houston and their opponents have totaled less than 48 points in 6 of their ten games and again, one of those Overs came when they played this Jags team and they had several unusual scoring plays. Three of the last four meetings between these two AFC South teams has resulted in 46 or less points. |
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11-25-23 | Heat v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -3.5 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - This is an ideal situation to back the Nets at home who are rested, playing an unrested Heat team AND playing with revenge from a loss to the Heat just over a week ago. Miami played last night in New York and tonight’s game will be their 4th in six days, 3rd in four days. Brooklyn has been off since the 22nd and will be well rested heading into this game. On Nov 16th the Nets lost in Miami 115-122 as a +3.5-point underdog. The game was relatively even statistically, but the Heat shot it slightly better overall and from beyond the arc. The Nets are 3-1 SU their last four at home with their most recent home game being a blowout loss to the 76ers. Miami is 6-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing on the second night of a back to back. Brooklyn is 11-7-1 ATS in that same time frame when playing with 2-3 days rest. Miami is 28-37-3 when coming off a win since the start of last season. Brooklyn had beaten the Heat 6 straight times prior to the recent loss and we are betting they get back on the winning track here. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -2.5 over New Mexico State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This is a really solid situational spot for Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are not eligible for a bowl game this year so you can expect them to treat this as their bowl game. They are facing an NMSU team that has already qualified for the CUSA Championship game next weekend where they will be facing Liberty. On top of that, New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE upset last weekend beating Auburn (maybe caught Tigers looking ahead to Alabama this week?) on the road as a 25 point dog. To add fuel to the fire, JSU, because they joined the conference this year is not eligible to play in the CUSA Championship. If they were, this game would be for a spot in that game with both teams at 6-1 in league play and because of that you can bet this is a huge statement game for JSU. Add that up and this is a prime letdown spot for the Aggies looking ahead to next week’s Championship game. JSU played arguably their best game of the season last week beating La Tech 56-17 and outgained the Bulldogs 628 to 269. NMSU’s QB Pavia is banged up and they rely heavily on their running game which could be a problem in this game. JSU ranks 19th nationally allowing only 106 YPG and 4th nationally allowing 2.7 YPC. On the other side of the ball JSU averages almost 250 YPG on the ground (3rd in the nation) and they are facing a Aggie defense that ranks 41st defending the run and 61st in YPC allowed. There is a reason the road team is favored over the team playing in the CUSA Championship Game next week. We like JSU to win by more than a FG here. |
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11-25-23 | San Jose State v. UNLV OVER 59.5 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 59.5 Points - San Jose State at UNLV, 3 PM ET - It all comes down to this game to determine who will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force and Boise State could still manage to get it but either way, all teams involved must win to have that opportunity. With that in mind we expect this game to be a shootout between the Spartans and Rebels. In conference action this season UNLV games have averaged 59.2 total points per game. Conference games involving San Jose State have averaged slightly lower at 56.8PPG. After a slow start to the season, SJST has won 5 straight games and the offense has clicked with 52, 42, 35, 42 and 24-points. The Rebels have surprised everyone this season with their 8-2 record, and they too have put up some impressive offensive numbers by scoring 31 or more points in seven games this season, 40+ in five. UNLV is 41st in yards per play offense at 6.2, rank 40th in total YPG at 425, run and pass it equally well. The Spartans are 58th in total YPG (398), 30th in yards per play (6.4) and rank 32nd in rushing yards per game, 81st in passing yards per game. Both teams also hit on explosive scoring plays as evidenced by San Jose State averaging 12.9 yards per point scored (26th) and UNLV averaging 12.2YPPT which ranks 12th. We expect both teams to get into the 30’s in this one and predict an easy OVER winner. |
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11-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue -4.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
#168 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -4.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both these teams step into this game with a 3-8 record, however our power ratings have IU as the lowest rated team in the Big 10 and Purdue 3 points better on a neutral site. We’re getting them at basically that number at home on Saturday. Purdue is off a loss @ NW but they played that game without starting QB Card and he is expected back for this one. Even without Card, the Boilermakers were +9 first downs and +114 yards in that loss. What’s been impressive about the Purdue offense as of late is their running game. They have now rushed for over 300 yards in each of their last 2 games and the week prior to that they actually outrushed Michigan in their loss in Ann Arbor. They should have a big edge here in the trenches vs an Indiana team that ranks 107th running the ball and 120th in YPC. IU has lost 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming at home vs Wisconsin with the Badgers playing their backup QB. And the Hoosiers were outgained in that win vs the Badgers by 80 yards but Wisconsin was -2 in turnovers. Despite the records being equal, Purdue has the better numbers vs nearly the same strength of schedule. The Boilers have the better point differential YPG differential and YPP differential. They have also covered 6 in a row vs the Hoosiers. Last year Purdue was -10.5 on the road vs IU (Purdue won by 14) and now we’re getting them at home right around a FG favorite. The Boilers lost to Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin at home however when facing lower tier Big 10 opponents (Illinois & Minnesota) they won by scores of 44-19 and 49-30. We like Purdue to win & cover at home on Saturday. |
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11-24-23 | Kings v. Wolves -4 | Top | 124-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #566 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is a big game for the In Season Tournament as both teams are 2-0 in pool play and the winner of this game essentially locks up the In Season bid. Minnesota was just a -7-point favorite at home against the 76ers and are now laying just -4 against the Kings? These teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings with the Kings averaging 1.137-points per possession while the Wolves average 1.135PPP. Minnesota owns the 6th best FG% number in the league at 48.9%. Sacramento doesn’t shoot it overly well at 46.2% (22nd) but they make 3-pointers at a 14.6 per game clip which is 5th most. The difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court. The Wolves are 1st in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.062PPP compared to the Kings who rank 16th in the NBA allowing 1.144PPP. Minnesota is one of the best teams in the league defending the 3-point line holding opponents to 32.4% shooting (2nd). Sacramento allows opponents to hit 48.9% of their field goal attempts which is 23rd in the league. Minnesota has won 3 of the last four meetings with the Kings getting one win in OT last year. Minnesota has the 2nd best average home differential in the league at +17.3PPG. The Kings have a negative road differential of minus -3.2PPG. Back the home team here by more than 4-points. |
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11-24-23 | UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane | Top | 16-29 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
#185 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams are both 7-0 in conference play and the winner of this game will move onto play on the AAC Championship game. Tulane has a few other options to make it to that game if they lose here but UTSA does not. We really like the way UTSA is playing right now and we also feel Tulane has been trending down for the last 4 or 5 weeks. The Roadrunners have won 7 straight games and they are 5-1-1 ATS during that stretch. Their offense has been rolling to say the least scoring at least 34 points in each of those 7 wins and topping 40 points 4 times. Tulane remains overvalued covering only 2 of their last 8 games and they’ve struggled with some of the AAC’s worst teams. Prior to winning and covering vs a bad FAU team last week, the Green Wave beat Tulsa by 2 (as 24.5 point favorites), beat ECU by 3 (as 17 point favorites), beat Rice by 2 (as 10 point favorites), and topped North Texas by 7 (as 20 point favorites). Their record remains great but this team is primed to be knocked off. On Friday they face the best team they’ve seen since losing by 17 at home vs Ole Miss back in September. Their offense is struggling not scoring more than 24 points in any of their last 3 games and 2 of those games were vs defenses ranked 90th and 129th nationally. We have UTSA rated as the better team and we’re getting more than a FG. When comparing the key stats in AAC play only, despite both teams having 7-0 records, UTSA has a point differential of +132 while Tulane’s point differential is +52. The Roadrunners are also +100 YPG and +1.4 YPP in conference play compared to the Green Wave who are +59 YPG and +0.5 YPP. UTSA has been a dog just once this season and that was @ Tennessee. They haven’t lost a game since September and 2 of their 3 losses this season came with star QB Harris (4 year starter with 11,600 passing yards and 91 TD’s in his career) out of the lineup with an injury. UTSA is undervalued right now and we like them to win this game and move onto the AAC Championship game. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #113 Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs. NY Jets, Friday 3 PM ET - Let’s be upfront on this wager. It looks like we are laying a premium price with the Dolphins here as this line opened with Miami favored by -7.5 points and has been bet up steadily since. Part of the bump in the number is the speculation the Jets are going to their 3rd string QB Tim Boyle. Boyle has been in the league for 5 years out of Eastern Kentucky with 18 games played with 607 total passing yards on 72/120 passing. He has 3 career TD’s to 9 INT’s. This Jets offense is putrid! They have scored 13, 6, 12 and 6-points in their past four games. New York is averaging 4.7 yards per play this season (29th) which is even worse in their past three games at 4.1YPP. The 270YPG and 15PPG average are both 30th in the league. They can’t run (23rd) at 99.8 rushing yards per game or pass (30th) at 170.5 passing YPG. Nothing will come easy against a Dolphins defense that is 12th in total YPG allowed and 13th in yards per play allowed. Miami has one of the best offenses in the NFL rankings 1st in total YPG, 1st in yards per play (7.2), 2nd in rushing and 1st in passing. The Jets simply cannot keep up with this offense. Miami has struggled against the good teams this season, but against the bad teams they’ve dominated with 4 double digit wins. Miami is coming off a poor final score against the Raiders with a 20-13 win. They dominated statistically with 9 more first downs, had 422 total yards of offense but 3 key turnovers cost them points. This week they make a statement on Friday with a 2 or more TD win over the Jets. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #106 Detroit Lions -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers, Thursday 12:30 PM ET - The extra ½ point on this game will have plenty of bettors on the Packers as a division dog but not us. The Lions were favored by -2.5 points at Lambeau earlier this season and put up 34-points in a 14-point win. Detroit put up over +400 total yards of offense and held the Packers to 230. In week #2 of this season the Lions were favored by 6-points at home against Seattle and lost 31-37. Since then, they have gone 4-0 SU at home with three of those wins coming by 14 or more points. Last week they trailed the Bears for most of the game before two TD’s late in the game for a win. That should serve as a wake-up call for the Lions. Green Bay has to travel here on a short week and are coming off a satisfying home win over the Chargers. The Packers QB Jordan Love has looked good the past two weeks but now he’ll be playing without RB Aaron Jones and going up against a Lions defense that is ranked 9th in defensive DVOA. Detroit is 5th against the run, 9th in total YPG allowed and 8th in opponents completion percentage. Green Bay is 18th in offensive DVOA and 23rd defensively. The Packers have one road win this season (Bears) and they haven’t faced a team of the Lions caliber on the road yet. Last season the Lions had an average +/- at home of +7.8PPG, this year that average is +8.6PPG. |
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11-22-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
#36 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Stars (-135) over Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - The Stars have been waiting for this game and are off to a fantastic start this season. The Golden Knights are the defending champs but have been slumping badly. Dallas is hungry for this one in particular because they lost a hard-fought playoff series with Vegas in May. Then, in their first shot at revenge this season the Stars actually never trailed against the Knights in Vegas but they lost in the shootout. The Golden Knights scored the equalizer with just 3 minutes left in regulation or there would have been no shootout in a game that the Stars know they should have taken! Now, entering this game, the set-up is perfect for revenge and the odds makers know that as well. That is why the Stars are priced as a solid -135 favorite here against the defending champs. There is no mistake with this line. The Golden Knights have lost 5 of 7 games and scored a total of just 6 goals in those 5 defeats! The Stars enter this one having won 11 of 15 games. Also, unlike Vegas, Dallas is having no trouble in the goal-scoring department of late. The Stars have scored at least 3 goals in 6 straight games and have averaged scoring 4.7 goals per game in those 6 games. Keep in mind the Knights were rolling until early November but, since then, the only two wins they have the past few weeks have been against Montreal and San Jose. Those teams have combined for just 10 wins in 36 games this season. The Golden Knights are just not right at the moment and the Stars are rolling with confidence and on home ice here and highly motivated. Looks like a home blowout is on the way in this one! Home team money line is our play here. |
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11-22-23 | Bucks v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #536 Boston Celtics -5.5 or -6 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This is the biggest game on the schedule tonight and we are backing the Celtics at home minus the points. The Celtics are coming off a loss and back at home where they haven’t lost this season. Boston has an average +/- of +22.4PPG at home this season and it’s come against quality opponents including the Heat, Pacers, Nets, Raptors and Knicks. We realize the Celtics can’t continue that torrid point differential at home, but we won’t be surprised if that average is double digits by seasons end. Last season the C’s average +/- at home was +8.8PPG. Last season the Celtics beat the Bucks badly in two of the three meetings with a pair of 41-point wins. Milwaukee is still going through an adjustment period with a new coach and Damian Lillard. The Bucks are 10-4 SU but it’s come against a very soft schedule (25th). These two teams are similar offensively with the Buck ranking 7th in offensive efficiency, the Celtics are 3rd. Defensively it’s not close as the C’s are 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency the Bucks are 25th. With Milwaukee still going through a transition period we like Boston to get a dominating win at home tonight. |
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11-22-23 | East Tennessee State v. Cleveland State -7.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#690 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland State -7.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for the host CSU. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Eastern Michigan as a 7 point favorite. They should be extra motivated after that loss. They are facing an ETSU team that is off an upset win at home over Davidson (70-68 as a 6.5 point dog) which makes this a perfect set up for the home team. ETSU battled back from a 10 point deficit in that game to win by 2 points. The Bucs are 2-2 on the season but they’ve lost both of their road games @ Elon (ETSU was a favorite) and then getting smoked at Butler. This is an ESTU team that had a 12-20 record last season and is learning the ropes under a new head coach Brooks Savage who has never been a head coach and came over from Wake Forest where he was an assistant. Four of their five starters are transfers and they only return 34% of their minutes for last season. Cleveland State finished 21-14 last season and they are one of the favorites in the Horizon this season. We currently have them power rated as the 2nd best team in the league behind only Wright State. They return 3 starters and almost 60% of their minutes from last year. CSU’s 2 losses have come on the road and they are 3-0 at home and they’ve won 30 of their last 35 games at home. The Vikings have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they finished 2nd in the Horizon last year with a 14-6 SU record. CSU is a solid program with a record of 55-33 last 3+ seasons and we’re getting them at home off a loss. We expect a double digit win for the Vikings on Wednesday. |
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11-21-23 | Pacers v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 157-152 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: #522 Atlanta Hawks -3.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game for the East Group A pool in the In-Season Tournament as the Pacers are 2-0 and leading the group with the Hawks in the 4th spot at 1-1. Atlanta is on the outside looking in but still have an opportunity to get into the mid-season finals if they beat the Pacers here and get a win over Cleveland. The Hawks are 2-3 SU their last five games and have currently lost three straight home games but we like them to get back on track here. Not to mention, the three recent home losses came to the 76ers, Knicks and Heat. The young Pacers have only played 4 road games this season with a 2-2 SU record. Comparing these two teams when it comes to efficiency ratings we find the Pacers hold a slight edge offensively ranking 1st while the Hawks are 5th. Defensively the Pacers are the 27th worst in DEFF with the Hawks ranking 22nd. Atlanta has the 9th best net differential when you factor in their strength of schedule while the Pacers are 19th. Atlanta has won 6 of the last seven meetings with five of those coming by 3 or more points. This line isn’t what it should be as our power ratings have the Hawks favored by nearly 6-points. |
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11-21-23 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan OVER 51.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Bowling Green vs Western Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on the Over in the WMU vs Northern Illinois game last week and the Broncos let us down with their worst performance of the season. We like them to bounce back in their home finale on Tuesday. WMU didn’t score a point last week but prior to that they were averaging 31.5 PPG their previous 7 games and only Ohio (ranked 5th nationally in total defense) held them under 21 points. BG’s defense went through a stretch of games recently where their defense looked very good. Those 4 games were vs Buffalo, Kent, Ball State, and Akron, and not one of those offenses ranks inside the top 105 nationally. Last week the Falcons gave up 32 points to Toledo and prior to that 4 games stretch vs terrible offenses, they had allowed an average of 31 PPG their prior 4 games. We like WMU’s to have success on Tuesday. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense has been rolling to say the least. They’ve scored at least 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games and if we subtract their one offensive stinker during that stretch vs Miami OH (23rd defense nationally) the Falcons averaged 34.5 PPG in the other 6 games. Their facing a bad Western Michigan defense on Tuesday as the Broncos rank 11th in the MAC (12 team conference) in total defense and scoring defense. WMU has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season and they’ve allowed 40+ four times. WMU games have topped 50 total points in 7 of their last 9 games and BG games have topped 50 in 4 of their last 6. With this total sitting in the low 50’s we’re getting some value with the Over here. Weather can be an issue in the Midwest this time of year but not on Tuesday in Kalamazoo with showers ending before or near kickoff, temps in the 40’s and light winds. |
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11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Detroit -2.5 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit -2.5 over Eastern Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Detroit will finally be playing their first home game after starting the season with 4 tough road tilts. The Titans are 0-4 which is giving us some value here as we’re laying -2.5 and our power ratings have Detroit closer to -5. They are also catching EMU off an upset home win over Cleveland State as 7 point underdogs which is also pushing this number lower than it should be. Detroit has played all top 125 teams and those 4 teams have a combined record of 13-1. Now they get to play a home game vs an EMU team ranked outside the top 300 so big drop off in competition. We’ll be honest the numbers on both ends of the court for both teams are not good but Detroit has played the tougher schedule. The only unit on the court that ranks inside the top 300 in efficiency is Detroit’s offense which ranks 252nd. Eastern is 2-2 on the season but those 2 wins came at home. They’ve played 2 road games this year and lost those by 43 & 39 points! Speaking of road games, the Eagles have been absolutely brutal long term away from home winning only 6 of their last 54 road games! With this number set very low, the almost need to win this game outright to cover and we just don’t see it. Detroit, on the other hand, has been very solid at home with an 18-6 SU record since the start of the 2022 season. This is a revenger for Detroit as well as they lost by 2 points @ EMU last year. The Titans were favored on the road by 4.5 points in that one and now they are laying a full bucket less at home just 1 year later. Again, nice value here with the home team and we’ll lay it. |
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11-20-23 | UCLA v. Marquette -5.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -5.5 over UCLA, Monday at 11:30 PM ET – Game in Hawaii - This is the last game of the Maui Invitational on Monday night. This is rough early season opponent for this inexperienced UCLA team. The Bruins have 1 starter back from last year’s team, lost nearly 90% of the scoring, and return only 18% of their total minutes from a year ago. Their starting backcourt is really raw with sophomore McClendon, who averaged 9 minutes per game last year, and freshman Mack. They’ve be facing off vs one of the top guard duos in the country. Marquette’s Kolek was Big East player of the year last season and Jones is one of the top off guards in the nation. Huge advantage to the Golden Eagles. As a whole, unlike UCLA, Marquette brings back nearly everyone from a team that finished 29-7 last year and won the Big East regular season and post season crown. They return 4 starters and 85% of their minutes. They’ve already faced the much tougher schedule with each of Marquette’s opponents ranking higher in Ken Pom than any of UCLA’s foes. The Eagles also have a played a high level opponent on the road this year as they beat Illinois 71-64 leading nearly the entire way. UCLA has played 3 home games vs teams all ranked 329th or lower. Despite playing 3 terrible opponents, the Bruins only hit 24% of their 3 pointers in those 3 games and their young starting backcourt is just 2 for 9 from deep this season. This veteran Marquette team has been more than comfortable away from home (road or neutral) with a 14-6 SU record (14-5-1 ATS) since the start of last season. We like the Golden Eagles to roll to an easy win on Monday night. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch here and we’ll side the team that won that game, the Chiefs, at home on Monday night. Both teams are off a bye, however we feel this heavily favors KC and head coach Andy Reid. He’s been lights out off a bye during his coaching career with a 21-3 SU lifetime record. This line says that these 2 teams are dead even on a neutral field which we don’t agree with. We have KC as the better team and DVOA agrees with us as they have the Chiefs rated 3rd in the NFL and Philadelphia 9th. DVOA also rates KC better on offense and defense. They’ve played the more difficult schedule and they have the better numbers. KC is +80 YPG and +0.9 YPP while the Eagles are +50 YPG and +0.2 YPP. The Chiefs also have a better point differential despite having one less win. The Eagles are 4-1 SU on the road however this is their first real test away from home. Their road slate has been one of the easiest in the NFL facing the Jets, Commanders, Patriots, Rams, and Bucs thus far. Despite winning 3 straight games, Philly simply isn’t playing all that well getting outgained by more than 100 yards in 2 of those wins vs Dallas & Washington. QB Hurts has not been 100% (leg injury) and he just lost one of his top targets TE Goedert with an arm injury. KC has won 20 of their last 22 home games and all but one of those wins had come by at least 3 points. We look for Patrick Mahomes to have a big night vs a Philly defense that ranks 28th vs the pass and 29th in opposing QBR. With this sitting under a FG, we like the Chiefs to cover at home. |
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11-20-23 | Knicks v. Wolves -130 | Top | 100-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #508 Minnesota Timberwolves -2 or -130 money line vs NY Knicks – 8:10 PM ET - If you haven’t noticed, the Timberwolves are playing at an extremely high level and are considered one of the best teams in the Western Conference. Minnesota has won 8 of their last nine games and are 9-3 on the season. The Wolves have done it against a very formidable schedule with recent wins against the Nuggets, Celtics, Warriors and Pelicans. The Wolves are 5-0 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +18.2PPG. The Knicks have won 6 of their last seven games but the wins have come against some of the league’s worst teams including the Spurs, Hornets, Wizards. Typically, New York would ‘out-defense’ you here, but the fact of the matter is the Wolves are better defensively owning the #1 efficiency rating in the NBA. When it comes to offense these teams are near even in efficiency ratings, but again, the Knicks have faced an easier schedule. Back the home team here. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings +2.5 or +3 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Broncos look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 3 straight. However, they have been outgained in 2 of those 3 wins and in the other “W” they only outgained the Packers by 8 yards. They were underdogs in 2 of those wins and a small 1 point favorite vs Green Bay. Now they are officially overvalued laying nearly a full FG vs a solid Minnesota team that has won 5 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. This Denver team is flat out bad when laying points with a 4-15-1 ATS run their last 20 in that role. They lost 13 of those 20 games outright. Minnesota has continued to play very well after inserting Dobbs at starting QB. In 2 games with the Vikings Dobbs has thrown for 426 yards on 67% completions with 3 TD’s and no picks. Their rushing attack doesn’t have good numbers for the season but the Vikes have balanced their offense out nicely with 125 and 146 yards rushing the last 2 games. On the other side the defense is vastly improved ranking in the top 10 in YPP allowed giving up a full 1.0 YPP less than last season. The Vikings have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 20 points. Minnesota has the much better overall numbers on the season with a point differential of +24 (Denver is -52), a YPG margin of +35 (Denver is -100), and a YPP margin of +0.6 (Denver is -0.8). We’ll take the better overall team as an underdog in this one. |
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11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4 | Top | 128-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic – 5:10 PM ET - These two teams have been big surprises in the Eastern Conference this season and both of their young rosters have played exceptionally well. Orlando comes into this game with a 7-5 SU record, Indiana is 7-4 SU. These teams play two entirely different styles of play as the Pacers try to outscore you whereas the Magic focus their energy on the defensive end of the court. Indiana is averaging a league best 1.223-points per possession and score 126.5PPG. Orlando has the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league and allow 106.6PPG. We are betting the Pacers outscore the Magic here. Indiana is second in pace of play and the young Magic rank 15th meaning they can and will get sucked into playing an uptempo game today. Despite playing fast in high possession games, the Pacers don’t turn the ball over with the 3rd fewest TO’s in the league. Orlando on the other hand averages the 3rd most TO’s on the season at 16.3 per game. Pacer PG Tyrese Haliburton is playing at an All-Star level averaging 24.7PPG, 12.5 APG points per game, and his 12.5 assists per leads the NBA. We are not as impressed with the Magics recent two road wins over a Bulls team that is on the trade market. Indiana on the other hand has won 4 of their last five games including wins over the 76ers and Bucks in that stretch. They also own a pair of wins over a Cavs team this season that plays a similar style to the Magic. Orlando has a negative differential on the road this season of -5PPG, Indiana at home has a +11.3PPG differential which is 5th best in the NBA. Let’s lay the points. |
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11-19-23 | Titans v. Jaguars -6.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Titans rookie QB Will Levis played well in his first start but now teams have game tape on him and can better prepare or scheme for the young QB. He is in a tough situation here with this being his third straight road game and the Titans have not played well away from home. Tennessee is averaging just 12PPG (30th) away from home and 255YPG which is 30th in the NFL. They are 0-5 SU on the road and also have a negative average differential of minus -9.7PPG. Last week the Jags schedule finally caught up with them and they faced a highly motivated 49ers team off a 3 game losing streak. They were blown out by 31-points which should serve as a wake up call this week. Prior to that game the Jags had won 5 straight games with four of those five wins coming by 7 or more points. This is one of those fishy lines with the Jags favored by 7 full points when they were only favored by 4 at home against the Colts and 3 against the Falcons. Tennessee just played at Tampa and was +2.5 and the week before they were +3 at Pittsburgh. This looks like an obvious trap by the oddsmakers as they are baiting you to back the Titans. Let’s not do it! |
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11-18-23 | San Diego State v. San Jose State -14.5 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
#430 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -14.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We were on the Spartans last week as they rolled over a very solid Fresno State team 42-18 and we expect more of the same on Saturday. San Jose State is 5-5 and they need one more win for bowl eligibility. They are much better than their .500 record as their losses have come at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 38-15! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 7 of their last 8 games. They’ve won 4 straight in blowout fashion, including rolling over an 8-1 Fresno State team last Saturday as we mentioned. The Spartans have beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 171 to 63 and outgained those teams 1,830 to 1,160. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with over 1,000 yards over the last 4 games. Last week they completely dominated the line of scrimmage rushing for 313 yards to just 83 for Fresno. That was vs a Bulldog defense that was allowing just 125 YPG rushing and now SJSU faces a San Diego State defense that ranks 111th vs the run. SDSU has been a huge disappointment this season and last week’s loss @ Colorado State knocked them out of bowl contention with a current record of 3-7. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, we may not see a lot of fight out of this Aztec team. They are getting outgained by 100 YPG and by 1.0 YPP on the season. The SDSU offense ranks 112th in total offense and 116th in scoring and they are going to try and keep up with a team that has averaged 43 PPG over their last 4? We don’t thinks so. Another easy win for SJSU who is also looking for revenge after losing to the Aztecs last season as a favorite. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas has been playing a number of tight games as of late with 4 of their last 5 decided by a TD or less. Their last 2 road games have gone to the wire winning by just 7 @ Houston as a 23.5 point favorite and winning by 3 last week @ TCU as a 13 point favorite. The Horns have covered only once in their last 5 games and they’ll have all they can handle here vs an ISU team that has had their number. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 4 season vs Texas with their only loss coming @ UT last year 24-21 as a 16 point dog. ISU had over 400 yards in the loss and outgained Texas in the process. The Cyclones are also playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ Oklahoma and vs Kansas by a final of 28-21. Texas took huge blow in last week’s tight win @ TCU losing all everything RB Brooks (1,100 rushing yards and 10 TD’s) to an injury and he’ll be out for the rest of the year. The Clones are playing their home finale here with some solid momentum after rolling @ BYU 45-13 last week. They have a top 25 defense and head coach Matt Campbell has proven he knows how to defend the potent Longhorn attack not allowing Texas to top 24 points in any of their last 6 meetings. Speaking of Campbell, he’s been lights out as a Big 12 underdog with a 28-11 ATS mark in that spot including 11-3 ATS when getting points at home in league play. This is a very dangerous game for Texas and we like Iowa State to stay within this number and have a shot at the upset. |
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11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State -120 | Top | 22-20 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -120 over Washington, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason that an undefeated top 5 team is an underdog in this game. They should be. Washington has been primed to get “upset’ for a good month now and we think this is where they go down. Washington is overvalued right now having only covered 1 of their last 6 games. In those 6 games they are -47 points to the spread so losing to the spread by an average of about 8 PPG and of their 10 wins, 6 have come by 10 points or less. The Huskies have also been outgained in 4 of their last 6 games and their defense is in a freefall allowing an average of 455 YPG over their last 5 games. Last week at home the struggled to beat Utah winning by a TD despite running 18 more offensive snaps and getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 6.1 YPP. On Saturday they get an Oregon State team that is simply lights out at home. In fact, since the start of the 2021 season, the Beavers have played 17 home games and covered 16 of those games! This year alone they beat 2 very good Pac 12 teams, UCLA and Utah, by double digits at home. We expect OSU to control the line of scrimmage here with the much better running game (9th nationally averaging 5.4 YPC) vs a Washington team that has been outrushed on a YPC basis in 5 straight games. The Beavers are playing very well right now having won 5 of their last 6 games with their only loss coming @ a red hot Arizona team by 3 points, a game OSU outgained Zona both on the ground and through the air. Despite their 8-2 record compared to Washington’s 10-0 record, the Beavers actually have a better YPG differential at +120 to the Huskies +93 YPG. We think this sets up very nicely for a dominant home team to get a win over an overvalued undefeated team. Take Oregon State. |
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11-18-23 | North Carolina v. Clemson OVER 59.5 | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
#341/342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – North Carolina vs Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UNC’s defense has been brutal over the last month allowing at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games (minus their game vs FCS opponent Campbell. Last week they allowed 47 points (36 in regulation) to a Duke offense that has been flat out bad over the last month averaging just 16 PPG over their previous 5 games. Duke put up those numbers last week with their starting QB Leonard on the bench with an injury. Clemson’s offense has come alive the last 2 weeks with 73 total points and should have plenty of success vs a UNC defense that’s been poor (82nd total defense) to say the least. On the other side of the ball, the Heels have one of the best QB’s in college football in Drake Maye and the rank 8th nationally averaging 40 PPG and 3rd nationally in total offense putting up 520 YPG. Clemson’s defense has allowed 21 points or more in 4 straight games vs offense with an average rank of 54th in the country. The fact is Clemson hasn’t faced an offense as potent as UNC this season. The best offense they’ve faced in FSU (ranked 23rd) and they put up 31 points in Clemson on this team. Both teams are fast paced with UNC ranking 11th in seconds per play and Clemson ranking 39th so we expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game. The implied teams totals in this game based on the total and the 7 point spread in favor of Clemson are the Tigers 33 and the Tar Heels 26. Perfect weather expected in Clemson on Saturday and we expect both teams to top those numbers and we’re on the Over on Saturday in this ACC match up. |
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11-17-23 | San Diego State v. St. Mary's +1 | Top | 79-54 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
#878 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s pick-em over San Diego State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - We’re getting a very good St Mary’s team off a loss blowing a 16 point 2nd half lead in a 61-57 loss vs Weber State. It was a rare poor shooting game for STM as they made only 40% of their shots overall and just 18% from beyond the arc. We feel it’s an anomaly that St Mary’s is hitting only 25% of their 3’s this season after making over 36% a year ago. They return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes (most in the West Coast Conference) from a team that was 27-8 last season. Not only that, the Gaels beat San Diego State last year 68-61 last season on a neutral court and that was an Aztec team that went to the National Championship game. We expect a regression this season from a SDSU team that must replace 2 starts and half of their minutes from last year’s team. St Mary’s has been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation for years now and they will turn this game into a “crawl” which is not how San Diego State likes to play. Gaels HC Randy Bennett is fantastic at getting his team to bounce back after a loss as they are 13-1 ATS in that spot. At a pick-em type game we feel we’re getting the better overall team in the better situation. Take St Mary’s on Friday Night. |
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11-17-23 | Kings -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7:30 PM ET - The Victor Webanyama hype is starting to die down and it’s becoming very clear just how far the Spurs have to go to be relevant again. San Antonio has lost 6 straight by an average of 19.5PPG, albeit two of those losses were by 36 and 41-points. But that’s also an indicator of just how bad this team can be at times. Sacramento is playing like the team that won 48 regular season games a year ago with 4 straight W’s. The last two victories were impressive with a 15-point win against the Lakers and a 12-point win over the Cavs. The Kings were the #1 most efficient offense in the NBA a year ago and averaged 120.8PPG. They’ve gotten off to a slow start this season but have a great opportunity to get right here against a Spurs defense that is 28th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.197-points per possession. Sacramento has not shot the 3-ball well at 33.9% but the Spurs allow opponents to hit over 40% of their 3-point attempts. San Antonio is also 28th in the league in offensive efficiency scoring just 1.068PPP. This is one of the In Season Tournament games, so it has added incentive for the Kings who trail the Timberwolves by a win in the Western Conference group C. The Spurs are essentially eliminated from contention with a 0-2 record. Sacramento has won 5 of the last six meetings with the Spurs with all of those wins coming by 7 or more points. Lay it here with the Kings. |
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11-16-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 128-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 227 Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors will be without Draymond Green (who doesn’t impact this number significantly) and Steph Curry who clearly has a huge impact on the game/outcome. Curry has carried the Warriors offensively this season averaging 30.7 points per game, on 49% shooting from the field and 45% from beyond the Arc. His absence was obvious in their most recent game against the Wolves when they managed just 101-points and shot just 42% from the field as a team. They also hit just 13 of 39 3-pointers in the game. Another factor is the pace of play and how it changes with the aging Chris Paul on the floor who prefers to play slow. The Warriors are 24th in the league in effective FG% at 52% but have an EF% of 47.4% in their last three games. It won’t be an easy task scoring tonight against a Thunder defense that ranks 7th in overall efficiency ratings allowing just 1.097-points per possession. OKC has held their last three opponents to 105 (Kings), 99 (Suns) and 87 (Spurs) points. This has been a very high scoring series but without Curry on the floor we expect a much lower scoring output in this one. If we go back to 2019 the Warriors are 78-89 (53.3%) Under when coming off a loss. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #312 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15PM ET - Both teams are coming off huge letdown losses as the Bengals suffered a beat at home to the Texans, while the Ravens squandered a 14-point lead to the Browns in the 4th quarter and lost at home by 2. We expect Baltimore to bounce back here at home in this HUGE division game. Both teams have impressive ATS records when coming off a loss going back to 2020 with the Bengals 16-7-1 ATS while the Ravens are 14-7-1 ATS. Baltimore is 8-5 SU their last thirteen home games with an average +/- of +7PPG. Cincinnati hasn’t been the same team this season (5-4 with an ave +/- of minus -1.1PPG) after going 27-13 SU the previous two seasons. The Bengals averaged 353.8 total yards per game last season (11th) but are putting up just 301.7YPG this season which ranks 24th. In fact, the Bengals have been outgained in terms of Yards Per Play in every game this season but one. The Bengals defense has allowed 6.1YPP this season which is 31st in the league, only ahead of the Denver Broncos at 6.4YPP. In comparison, Baltimore’s defense is best in the league in this stat category allowing only 4.2YPP and giving up only 273 total YPG. The Ravens have been especially stingy in the Red Zone allowing just 34.62% (3rd) of opponent’s TD’s to be scored. Baltimore is averaging 5.7YPP on the season and score TD’s on 64.29% of their RZ attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Baltimore outplayed the Bengals in the first meeting this season with +7 more first downs, 415YDS to 282YDS and a +1.0YPP advantage in their 3-point road win. Some may look at the dog in this rivalry, but the numbers tell us the Ravens have been much better on both sides of the football this season. Lay it! |
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11-16-23 | Wright State +9.5 v. Indiana | Top | 80-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
#717 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State +10 or +9.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IU has been less than impressive to say the least in their 2 wins this season. They won their season opener by 6 points vs Florida Gulf Coast and then beat Army by 8 points on Sunday. They weren’t even close to covering either game losing to the spread by a combined 25 points. Those 2 opponents currently have an 0-5 record vs D1 opponents this season. The closest losses this season for both of those teams were vs Indiana. In those games the Hoosiers had a massive advantage from the foul line (+32 made FT’s in those 2 games combined) and still struggled to win those games. IU was only +3 on the boards in those games and now face a Wright State team that has more size than both those opponents and has been decent on the boards. This Indiana team is not playing well to start the season and Wright State is a very solid mid Major who will give IU all they can handle. The Raiders just faced Toledo (the 2nd best team in the MAC) and lost 78-77. They have the makings of a team that can pull the upset as they shoot the ball very well (43rd nationally in eFG% after finishing 44th last year) and they make their FT’s (76%). The Wright State program is used to success vs the big boys as head coach Nagy has faced 7 major conference teams during the regular season and he’s pulled off outright wins in 3 of those games vs NC State, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. This is a huge opportunity for WSU playing on the big stage vs a Big 10 opponent so they’ll bring it on Thursday. Indiana has bigger fish to fry this weekend facing reigning National Champs UConn at Madison Square Garden. Too many points here as we look for the Raiders to give IU a run for their money. |
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11-15-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on #513 Sacramento Kings +1.5 vs LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - This is a very favorable scheduling situation for the Kings as they catch the Lakers off a win last night over Memphis. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, it’s also the 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. How much will LeBron even play tonight? The Kings have had their ups and downs but now have DeAaron Fox back from injury and have won 3 straight. The Kings last game/win came on Nov 13th over the Cavaliers 132-120. These two teams have similar efficiency ratings when it comes to defense, but offensively It’s not close as the Kings average 1.127 points per possession compared to the Lakers 1.088PPP. Last season in this scheduling situation the Lakers had one of the worst efficiency differentials in the NBA at minus -10.7 and they won just 40% of those games. The Kings have been especially good on the offensive glass in their last three games, averaging 13 O-boards per game compared to the Lakers 8.7. This means more to the Kings who have always had to look up to the Lakers and it’s shown in recent years with the Kings winning 5 of the last six meetings, including a 5-point win earlier this season. We like Sacramento here over a fatigued Lakers team. |
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11-15-23 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH UNDER 41 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 43 m | Show |
#307/308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Buffalo vs Miami OH, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Miami has been solid all season ranking in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed along with ranking 12th giving up just 17 PPG. They have held 7 straight opponents to 21 points or fewer and the only 2 teams that reached 21 points during that stretch were Toledo & WMU, the top 2 teams in the MAC in total offense. In their other 4 conference games (minus Toledo & WMU) the Redhawks have allowed a total of 19 points or less than 5 PPG. We don’t look for Buffalo’s offense to do much of anything on Wednesday night. Their only real successful offensive performance in MAC play this season was vs CMU who has the worst defense in the league. In their other 5 conference games, the Bulls have averaged only 14.8 PPG. Over the last 2 weeks Buffalo has faced Toledo and Ohio, the other 2 highest rated defenses in the conference along with Miami, and they scored 13 & 10 points in those games. For the season Buffalo ranks 109th in total offense and 128th in YPP. The Bulls defense struggled their first few games of the season but they’ve played very well over the last few months. Since MAC play started, the Bulls have allowed an average of just 17 PPG, 3rd best in the conference, and only Toledo (by far the best offense in the MAC) topped 24 points. The Redhawks offense is very slow paced (131st in seconds per play) and with backup QB Smith now under center, they’ve relied very heavily on the run which eats clock. In Smith’s 2 starts, he’s attempted a TOTAL of 28 passes while running the ball 86 times. The Redhawks offense ranks 97th in total offense at 345 YPG, however over their last 2 games since Smith has been the QB, they’ve averaged only 263 total yards. We’d be surprised if either team topped 21 points here so Under is our recommendation. |
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11-14-23 | Panthers -1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 5-3 | Win | 105 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
#17 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Panthers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +100) over San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Sharks are, by far, the worst team in the league so far this season. San Jose is 2-12-1 but what is particularly alarming about the record is the shots on goal stats in the two wins! The Sharks could easily be winless on the season as their 2-1 win over the Flyers saw the Sharks outshot by a 39-19 margin. The 3-2 win over Edmonton saw San Jose outshot by a 41-18 margin! Also, their 12 losses in regulation have all come by a multi-goal margin! In fact, the average margin of defeat for the Sharks in those dozen losses is 4 goals per game! The Sharks are being outshot 38.4 to 24.1 on the season! This is incredible how they are being outplayed night after night and now they must deal with a red hot Panthers team that has won 4 straight games and 9 of 12. Of course this is why Florida is priced as a heavy money line favorite on the road here but we get the value on the puck line. Remember, San Jose has 13 losses this season and all 12 of the losses that were in regulation were all by at least 2 goals! Florida is scoring 3.14 goals per game this season while the Sharks are averaging just 1.20 goals per game on the season! San Jose has been held to 2 or less goals in 11 of 12 games and Florida is averaging 4 goals per game during their 4-game winning streak. 4 to 2 or 4 to 1 sounds about right here and all signs point to the Panthers handing the Sharks another defeat by a multi-goal margin. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Florida at an even money price in this one is the value play here. |
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11-14-23 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 225.5 | Top | 126-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - This line opened 233.5 and has moved down giving us added value with an Over bet. The Hawks are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.2 possessions per game. Detroit is slightly below average at 99.5 for the season. Detroit is 21st in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.103 points per possession. The Hawks are 5th at 1.177PPP. The key here is that both are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defensive efficiency as both allow more than 1.140 points per possession. In their last five games, each team has been worse on the defensive end of the court allowing 117.6PPG (Hawks) and 118.6PPG (Pistons). Atlanta does a great job on the offensive boards with the 5th best average in the league compared to the Pistons who rank 14th in allowing O-boards. Conversely, the Pistons are 7th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, while the Hawks the 15th most. Both teams convert in transition extremely well ranking 3rd and 9th in fast break efficiency. Atlanta is coming off two straight games against top 10 defensive efficiency teams in the Heat and Magic and those games finished with 226 and 239 total points. Detroit is coming off two lower scoring games by their standards, but they faced a top 10 defense in Philly and the 3rd slowest paced team in the Bulls. Last season in four meetings these two teams scored 231, 248, 235 and 236. Bet Over! |
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11-14-23 | Bowling Green v. Oakland -125 | Top | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland -1 over Bowling Green, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Oakland is 0-2 on the season but both were road games vs Big 10 teams. The Grizzlies were more than competitive vs high level teams Ohio State (lost by 6) and Illinois (lost by 11). They easily covered both of those games by a combined 27 points. Now they take a big step down talent wise facing Bowling Green in their home opener. BG is 2-0, which is giving us some value here, but their wins have come against Chicago State (one of the worst teams in the nation) and Arkansas State, both at home. In their most recent game on Saturday vs Arkansas State the Falcons won by 6 but it was a 2 point game with 19 seconds remaining. BG made 11 more FT’s in the game which was the difference. Now they take the road where they’ve been poor to say the least with a 7-21 SU record over the last 2 seasons. The Falcons have on 1 starter returning and just 21% of their minutes are back from last year which is the 2nd lowest total in the MAC. They are also trying to mesh a number of new transfers along with a new coach who came over from Southern Utah. Meanwhile on the Oakland bench is head coach Kampe who has 675 wins at the school which is the 4th most wins of any active coach. This is also a revenger for Oakland who lost 87-82 last year vs Bowling Green. The Grizzlies, who were favored by 8 in that game, blew a lead with under 1 minute remaining in that one. Now they are laying only a single point this year at home which is some solid value in our opinion. Their first 2 really tough road games have prepared them to get a home win here. Take Oakland. |
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11-14-23 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 54.5 | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The MAC has a number of bad offenses this season, but these are not 2 of them. In league play WMU ranks 2nd in total offense and scoring while NIU ranks 3rd in total offense and scoring. The Huskies also lead the conference averaging almost 7 YPP in league games. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in every MAC game with the exception of Ohio, and they’ve put up 83 points over their last 2 games alone. The problem has been their defense which ranks dead last in the MAC in YPG and YPP allowed and 11th (out of 12 teams) in PPG allowed. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in every conference game and even terrible offenses, EMU and Ball State, put up 21 and 24 points respectively. Even Iowa, who has the worst offense in the nation averaging 243 YPG (133rd) scored 49 points on this defense. NIU is coming off their worst offensive performance in conference play last week vs Ball State but 3 turnovers limited their opportunities. We expect them to bounce back here. Prior to their game vs the Cardinals, Northern had averaged 32 PPG their previous 5 MAC games. NIU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but they’ve played so many weak offenses in conference play. 5 of the 8 worst offenses in the nation on a YPP basis reside in the MAC. The Huskies have faced 2 of the top 4 offenses in the league this season, Toledo and CMU, and in those games they gave up 35 & 37 points. Now they face a WMU offense that is right there with those 2 teams on that side of the ball. The Broncos also excel and running the ball and they are facing a defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run. WMU is also the fastest paced team in the MAC and top 25 in the country in that stat. Lots of scoring opportunities should be available on Tuesday night and we grab the Over. |
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11-13-23 | UC-Santa Barbara +3.5 v. UTEP | Top | 76-89 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
#891 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UC Santa Barbara +3.5 over UTEP, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting the Big West reigning champs UCSB (27-8 record last year) off an opening season loss last week vs a solid Portland State team. The Gauchos played that game without PG Mitchell who was the Big West player of the year last season. He had a slight injury and was held out as a precaution but practiced over the weekend so we anticipate he’s back here. He’ll be teamed with 2 other veteran guards Anderson & Pierre-Louis giving UCSB one of the top backcourts out West. Those 2 combined for 35 points and 7 assists in Thursday’s 6 point loss and now we add Mitchell back in the mix. UTEP is coming off a 14-18 season and finished 10th in CUSA’s 11 team league. They step into this game with a 2-0 record but their opponents were McMurry College and University of Science and Arts. The Miners may be a bit overconfident after scoring 120+ points in both of those games and shooting over 60% (combined both games) vs horrific opponents. Now they face one of the better mid majors in the country with a solid core back (all of their key guards) that went to the NCAA tournament last season. The Gauchos were favored by 9.5 points in their loss vs Portland State and now they are facing a team we have similarly rated and UCSB is more than a full possession underdog (+3.5 as of this write up on Sunday night). Nice value here with the better team getting points in our opinion. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 47.5 Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills, 8:15 PM ET - We are going to stick with the Under trend on NFL Prime Time games when the Broncos take on the Bills Monday Night. NFL Unders have hit at 61% overall for the season and Prime Time games have been especially profitable for bettors at 22-7 this season. In the last four weeks the PT Unders are 11-1 and the SNF and MNF games are 16-3 Under. Denver has some bad overall defensive statistics for the season but one horrendous game against Miami has somewhat skewed those numbers. In their last three games the Broncos D has played well allowing 19 and 9-points to the Chiefs in two games and holding Green Bay to 17. Denver has also made a commitment to their running game with 137-rushing yards per game in their last three games which is 4th most in the NFL. Buffalo allows 4.9 yards per rush which is 30th most in the league so expect a heavy dose of the running game by Denver here which shortens the game. The Bills haven’t looked like the team that was expected to contend for a Super Bowl this season and they’ve seen their scoring dip in recent games. Buffalo is averaging just 22.3PPG in their last three games and 1-point scored for every 16.2 yards gained which is 18th in the NFL over that stretch of games. Buffalo games have totaled 45 or less points in 4 of their last five. Denver and their opponents have combined for 36 or less points in three straight. We will bet Under on MNF. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
#262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Seahawks blowout loss in Baltimore last week as the Ravens are playing at another level right now and might be the best team in the league at this point in time. Seattle has a great opportunity back at home against a Washington team basically in tank mode after gutting their defense at the trade deadline. Seattle is 3-1 SU at home this season with a pair of double digit wins over Arizona and Carolina and a 4-point win over Cleveland. The Seahawks have three huge games on deck with division showdowns versus the Rams and Niners with a road date in Dallas after that. That makes this game extremely important for their playoff lives. Washington has some of the worst defensive statistics in the league over the last four games and currently rank 28th in yards per game allowed, 29th in yards per play allowed (5.9), they can’t stop the run or the pass and give up 27.2PPG which is 30th. When it comes to offense the Commanders are nearly as bad ranking 23rd in offensive DVOA. Seattle is 11th in yards per play averaging 5.6 and have managed 311.8YPG despite facing 4 defenses that rank top 10 in yards allowed per game. Washington is coming off a low scoring close win over the Patriots but now travels to the West coast to face a much better Seahawks team off a loss. Hawks head coach Pete Carroll has been historically good off a loss with a cover rate of 62%. Lay it with Seattle here under a TD. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars UNDER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
#247/248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45 Points - San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers started the season on fire offensively with 5 straight games of 30+ points. In their last three games though they’ve managed just 17 points in each game. They have seen a regression in their yards per play and total yards per game in that three-game span. On the season they have the 4th best Red Zone scoring percentage at 65.63% but in their last three games they’ve dropped to 55.56%. Jacksonville has won 5 straight games and have put up some points this season with the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.1PPG. But a deeper dive inside the numbers shows a slightly different story as the Jags haven’t faced many defenses as good as the Niners. When the Jags faced a Chiefs team allowing 15.9PPG in September they managed just 9-points. San Francisco allows just 17.5PPG (4th) on the season and 5.2YPP which is 10th best in the NFL. The 49ers recently added another edge rusher in Chase Young and are coming off their worst defensive showing of the season in Cincinnati where they allowed 31-points. Jacksonville can also play defense with the 3rd overall ranked DVOA unit in the NFL. The Jaguars allow 79.2 rushing yards per game (4th) and 3.6 yards per rush (4th) along with an opponent’s completion percentage of 62.9% which is 11th best in the league. Jacksonville gives up just 19.5PPG which is 9th in the NFL. These two teams don’t typically play fast as the Jags rank 16th in plays per second, the 49er’s are last in the league in that stat category. NFL games tend to stay below the total when two teams come into the game with extra rest, which is the case here. Going back to 2018 the Under is 99-47-1 (68%) in this situation and it’s cashed 23 of 28 times this season. Some windy conditions in Jacksonville will also limit deep throws for both teams. The play here is UNDER the total. |
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11-11-23 | Fresno State v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 18-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -2.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - Fresno is more than ripe to get upset in this game. There is a reason that the 8-1 Bulldogs (ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll) are a 1 point dog vs a San Jose State team that steps into this game with a 4-5 record. First off, San Jose State has played the tougher schedule with their losses coming at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 35-12! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve won 3 straight in blowout fashion, including 2 on the road, beating those 3 opponents by a combined score of 129 to 45 and outgaining those teams 1,370 to 853. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with 727 yards over the last 3 games. Despite their losing record, the Spartans are +40 YPG, +0.5 YPP, and +50 point differential on the season. They are much better than their record. Fresno has only 1 loss but they are slipping right now and lucky to get by with their wins in recent weeks. They’ve now been outgained in 4 straight games and their QB Keene is nowhere close to 100% healthy with a knee issue. The Bulldogs are losing in the trenches getting outrushed in 4 straight games and not reaching 100 yards rushing in 2 of those contests. We were on Boise State last week @ Fresno and the Broncos had more first downs, outgained the Bulldogs BOTH on the ground and through the air. The huge turning point in that game was an FSU 95 yard kickoff return as time expired in the 1st half taking the wind out of Boise’s sails in the 37-30 game. Now they travel to San Jose and they catch the Spartans off a bye week and playing their best football of the season. We like SJSU to control this game in the trenches and win at home on Saturday night. |
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11-11-23 | Tennessee -2.5 v. Missouri | Top | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
#195 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tennessee should be fresh here coming off a 59-3 home blowout over UConn. The Vols were up 35-3 at half and they were able to get their starters plenty of rest in the 2nd half including QB Milton who only played in the 1st half. Meanwhile Mizzou was playing in a physical game @ Georgia, a game the Tigers lost 30-21. They had a bye week leading into their game vs UGA so they put 2 full weeks of prep and emotion into that game and now might be a bit flat here. We really like the Vols edge on both lines of scrimmage with the Tennessee offense averaging 228 YPG on the ground (3rd nationally) on 5.8 YPC (5th) while the UT defense allows just 97 YPG rushing (14th nationally) on 2.9 YPC (8th). The Tigers have been far from dominant at home despite their 5-1 mark as a host. The top 2 teams they’ve played here were LSU, who beat Missouri by 10, and Kansas State who lost on a 61 yard FG as time expired. In other home games the Tigers struggled to beat Middle Tennessee State by 4 and Memphis by 7. Mizzou QB Cook is very solid but we expect he’ll be under pressure again this week just as he was last week when he completed less than 50% of his passes vs UGA. The Tennessee front 7 is very good and they are top 30 in both QB sacks per game and sack percentage while the Mizzou offensive line is outside the top 45 in both of those stats. There is also a chance Cook’s #1 target WR Burden (960 yards receiving and 7 TD’s) may not play here as he has been banged up for weeks and was injured during the Georgia game last week. Burden is easily the Tigers top offensive weapon. On the season Tennessee is +147 YPG, +1.9 YPP differential, and +147 point differential. For the season Missouri is +89 YPG, +1.2 YPP, and +76 point differential. Tennessee is simply the better team, in a better situation, and with the line where it is they just have to win this game outright to most likely get a cover. |
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11-10-23 | North Texas v. SMU OVER 68 | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 26 m | Show |
#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 68 Points – North Texas vs SMU, Friday at 9 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with great offenses going at it here. UNT is the 8th fastest team in the country running a play every 21 seconds while SMU ranks 34th running a play ever 24 seconds. UNT averages 77 offensive plays per game (8th nationally) and SMU averages 75 (17th). Not only does each team run a lot of plays, they are both high level offenses ranking in the top 15 in total offense and both averaging 6.5 YPP. SMU averages 40 PPG and UNT averages 35 PPG. The Mustangs will be facing a Mean Green defense that flat out stinks, thus why they are 17 point favorites. The Green are allowing 470 YPG (132nd), 6.4 YPP (125th) and 37 PPG (129th). As bad as those numbers are, they’ve only faced ONE offense this season that is currently ranked in the top 45 nationally and that was Memphis who put up 45 on North Texas. We’re confident the Stangs top 40 in this one as that’s their average and this is the worst defense they’ve faced. Can UNT put points on the board? Our answer is yes. The SMU defense is highly ranked in a number of categories and they’ve allowed an average of only 16 PPG this season. However, they’ve played a weak slate of offenses this season. They’ve only faced 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 65 in total offense and those 3 (TCU, Oklahoma, and Rice) averaged 31 PPG vs this SMU defense. UNT offense is tough to slow down as they are very balanced averaging 181 YPG on the ground and over 300 through the air. They’ve put up at least 39 points in 5 of their last 8 games. Based on the 17 point spread, the projected score here is right around SMU 43, UNT 26 and we think both teams eclipse those numbers. Weather looks decent in the Dallas area on Friday night with light winds and we look for a shootout in this one. |
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11-10-23 | Wolves -6 v. Spurs | Top | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have opened some eyes this season with a current 4 game winning streak with impressive wins against Boston and Denver in that stretch. Granted, both W’s were at home but now they face a young Spurs team going through growing pains. San Antonio is 4-6 SU on the season but have now lost 3 straight with one of those being at home to the Raptors as a +3.5-point underdog. The Wolves should be a bigger favorite here if Toronto was laying -3.5. Minnesota is 3rd in the league in average point differential at plus +10.6PPG. San Antonio is last in the league in +/- at minus -12.5PPG. Neither offense has been great, ranking near league average in offensive efficiency, but defensively it’s not close. In fact, there couldn’t be a great difference between two teams in the league when it come to DEFF with the Wolves ranking 1st and the Spurs 30th. We will lay the points and predict a double-digit win by Minnesota in this one. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears UNDER 38.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38.5 Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, 8:10 PM ET - The Under trend continues on NFL games in general hitting above 60% on the season, especially the TV night games that are on a 22-7 Under streak. Carolina came out of their bye-week and was expected to be much better offensively, but it hasn’t translated to the field. The Panthers are averaging just 4.0YPP in their last three games and managed just 3.9YPP last week against a Colts defense that is allowing 5.2YPP on the year. The Panthers have put up 15 and 13-points in their last two games and average 17.5 on the season which ranks 26th. Chicago had found some success offensively with QB Fields but with QB Bagent they’ve regressed. Chicago is 19th in total yards per game, 17th in yards per play and score just 20.9PPG which ranks 19th. The Bears are 18th in Yards Per Point, Carolina is 24th. Chicago’s defense has allowed 20 or less points in 3 of their last five games. Carolina allowed 42-points to the Dolphins and Lions in their last four games, but those two offenses are far superior to this Bears unit. |
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11-09-23 | Virginia v. Louisville UNDER 50.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 6 m | Show |
#115/116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Virginia vs Louisville, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on the UVA – Georgia Tech Over last week which cashed but part of that handicap was how Cav QB Muskett had been playing well. That changes here as Muskett was injured (high ankle sprain) and will most likely miss this one on a short week. His replacement was freshman Colandrea who picked up some experience earlier in the season when Muskett was injured. Last week Colandrea entered early in the 1st quarter and was only able to put up 17 points vs a Georgia Tech defense that was rated 130th in total defense entering last week’s game. Now UVA faces a high level defense in Louisville who ranks in the top 15 nationally in total offense and scoring defense and the Cards stop unit is peaking allowing 3 total points over their last 2 games vs Duke and Va Tech. They’ve held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 20 points or less. Needless to say we think Virginia struggles big time on offense here. This should be a run heavy game for Louisville which eats clock. They are a big favorite here and when they get the lead they’ve shown they’ll grind it out on the ground. Last week they got in front of a solid Va Tech team and ran the ball 38 times and attempted only 13 passes in a game that ended with 40 total points. A week prior they faced Duke, got out in front and ran the ball 48 times with only 16 pass attempts in a game that ended with 23 total points. We see a similar situation here and we’re not comfortable laying 20+ points with Louisville, the Under should cash here if it plays out as we expect. |
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11-08-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-128 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219.5 LA Lakers @ Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - We don’t see many points being scored in this contest and will bet UNDER the total. Houston is actually playing defense for their new coach Udoka which shouldn’t be a surprise considering his Celtics in 21-22 was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Houston has held the Kings to 97 and 89 points in their last two games and also held the Warriors to 106 four games ago. The Kings and Warriors were both top 10 in offensive efficiency a year ago. Now they face a Lakers team that was 20th in OEFF last season and currently rank 25th this season at 1.047-points per possession. Houston is ranked near league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency with their games averaging 218.8 total points per game. The Lakers are scoring less than the league average at 111.1PPG and rank 29th in team 3PT% at 29.8%. Both teams favored the UNDER last season when playing in this rest schedule with a combined 12-17-1 combined record. |
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11-08-23 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 41 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Akron vs Miami Oh, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Surprising to most because they are a 2-7 team, the Zips defense is pretty solid. They are in the top 50 nationally in total defense (342 YPG) and YPP defense (5.4). They’ve been outstanding vs the pass allowing opposing QB’s to complete only 54% of their pass attempts (8th best in the nation). They’ve been a bit unlucky defensively allowing 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained (average is around 1 for every 15 yards gained) so their overall numbers are better than their PPG allowed numbers. They are facing a Miami offense that ranks 90th in total offense and they are down to their 2nd string QB Smith who made his first start last week for the injured starter Gabbert. The Redhawks already don’t pass much but it will even be less with Smith under center who has completed less than 50% of his career attempts. Last week Miami attempted only 11 passes vs Ohio. It looks like they played well offensively with 30 points but they were very fortunate to get to that number with only 290 total yards. On the other side, Akron can’t score. They did last week vs a bad Kent team but prior to that the Zips had scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of their previous 6 games. They rank 129th for the season with just 17 PPG. They are facing a Miami defense that is very solid allowing only 19 PPG on the season. They have allowed only 61 points over their last 5 games including holding Toledo, easily the best offense in the league, to just 21 points a few weeks ago. Both teams are slow paced with Miami coming in at 128th and Akron 76th in plays per second so we don’t look for many possessions here. Defense rules the day and Under is the play. |
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11-07-23 | Flyers v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#61/62 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:37 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. Two teams very hungry for a win and with fresh skating legs (both off since Saturday) and ready to push hard here but both clubs having major issues in goal. The Flyers will still be without top goalie Carter Hart here. That means Cal Petersen or Samuel Ersson will get the call. Petersen was struggling in the AHL so far this season and then he struggled against the Kings Saturday in his first game after being called up. Ersson is off a good start but this was a shock that can not be expected to be repeated here as he allowed 14 goals on just 59 shots in his first three appearances! The Sharks top guy is Kappo Kahkonen but even if he is back now from his upper body injury, he has a 4.30 GAA so far this season. Mackenzie Blackwood has a 4.77 GAA so far this season. Magnus Chrona is a rookie who allowed 4 goals on only 17 shots in relief of Blackwood Saturday in a 10-2 loss to Pittsburgh. Yes, the Sharks lost 10-2 and this was after losing 10-1 to Vancouver! San Jose has tied an NHL record with 11 straight losses to start the season! However, they showed effort early in the loss to the Penguins and then things unraveled. They badly want to win and will keep pushing hard but their defense and goaltending will hold them back. The same can be said of the Flyers who are off their worst game of the season as they just lost 5-0 at LA Saturday. Philly had not only not been shutout this season, they had never been held to less than 2 goals in a game this season and were averaging 3.4 goals scored per game in their first 11 games this season. So Philly can be expected to bounce back here and their power play did look much better but just could not get the finishes. Those will come against this bad Sharks team but, again, San Jose is going to bring it at the other end of the ice. They do not want to set NHL history with a 12th straight loss so SJ pushes hard here but can not stop Philly either. 5-4 would not surprise us in the least but certainly we should see this one get to at least a 4-3 final. 4 of the 5 games not started with Hart in goal for Philly have seen the Flyers allow at least 5 goals each time! The Sharks are allowing 5 goals per game this season! Based on the above, don't be surprised if one of these teams reaches the 5 goal mark here and we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals here given the above. Over is our play here. |
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11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 44 | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Ohio vs Buffalo, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Ohio defense is among the best in the nation and Buffalo’s defense has played very well over the last month and a half. The Bobcats rank in the top 12 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, scoring defense, rush defense, and pass defense. They have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 20 points or less including limiting their foe to 10 points or less 4 times. That defensive dominance should continue on Tuesday night vs a Buffalo offense that averages just 324 total yards per game (110th nationally) on 4.5 YPP (127th). The Bulls do like to air it out offensively, however Ohio gives up very few explosive plays in the pass game allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt (14th nationally). On top of that, as of this writing on Monday, the Buffalo weather looks a little windy on Tuesday night (15 MPH). The Bulls overall defensive numbers aren’t great but much of that was their early struggles through the first 4 weeks of the season. Since entering MAC play, this Buffalo defense has allowed an average of 16.8 PPG. Last week they did give up 31 points to Toledo, easily the best offense in the MAC, however 7 of those points for the Rockets came on a kick return. The Ohio offense isn’t in the same stratosphere as Toledo ranking 96th in total offense and 102nd in YPP. The Bobcats also rank outside the top 100 in scoring and have been held to 20 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games. This should also be a slower paced game with Ohio ranking 105th in seconds per play and Buffalo 52nd. We don’t see either team topping 21 points in this game so Under is our call. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3.5 v. Jets | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #475 LA Chargers -3.5 vs NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - This line doesn’t make sense for a few key reasons. The Chargers are sitting at -3.5 points with heavy tickets and public support coming in on the Jets. So why won’t the oddsmakers move this line to -3? Someone knows something that the rest of us don’t. The Jets were coming off a bye prior to last week's game against the Giants so you would think they would’ve been prepared. Not so much as they managed just 251 total yards of offense and punted 11 times in the game. The Giants threw just 14 total passes for minus -9 yards. The Chargers looked good in their win over Chicago, albeit against the Bears. L.A. put up 352 total yards and 5.4YPP with QB Herbert completing 31 of 40 passes with 3 TD’s. The Jets will have a tough time trading points with this Chargers offense as QB Wilson/Jets average just 164 passing yards per game (31st) with a 58% completion percentage which is 30th in the league. New York as a home dog is 8-9 ATS their last seventeen with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Bet the Chargers here. |
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11-06-23 | Wizards v. 76ers OVER 228.5 | Top | 128-146 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 in Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - NBA games are averaging 225.2 points per game but this game will be anything but ‘average’. The Wiz are the fastest paced team in the league 105.5 possessions per game. They have to play fast because they don’t play defense and they are not overly efficient on the offensive end. Washington is averaging 115PPG but allowing 125.2PPG. They are 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency. That’s not a good recipe for success against a Philadelphia team that is averaging 1.188-points per possession which is 4th best in the league. The Sixers are the 6th best FG% team in the league at 48.6%, 6th in 3PT% at 39% and it doesn’t hurt they make their free throws at 81.8% which is 5th. Washington has some of the worst defensive numbers in the league including being last in FG% D and 28th in 3PT% D. The Wiz have faced Atlanta, Boston and Indiana this season who have similar scoring number to Philly and those three teams put 130, 126 and 143 points against Washington. Easy Over call here. |
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11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers OVER 44 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Indianapolis vs Carolina, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game as Indy is the fastest paced team in the NFL & Carolina 15th. Both in the top 6 in offensive snaps per game so plenty of opportunities to score here. Indy’s defense has been terrible over the last month – they’ve allowed 37, 39, and 38 points last 3 weeks and all 3 of those opponents (Jags, Browns, and Saints) rank in bottom half of NFL in offensive efficiency (YPP). On the other side of the ball, the Colts offense has been solid the last 3 games since QB Minshew took over for an injured Richardson. In the last 3 games Indianapolis has scored 85 points (28 PPG) and averaged around 400 YPG during that 3 game run. Carolina HC Reich gave up play calling to OC Brown and we expect some new wrinkles moving forward. Carolina QB Young played well last week with 71% completions and 235 yards passing in first win giving the Panthers some positive momentum. They only scored 15 points but had opportunities to score getting shut out on downs at the Houston 2 yard line and settling for 3 FG’s with 2 coming inside Houston’s 20 yard line. In this game we have the 30th and 32nd ranked scoring defenses here both allowing over 28 PPG. Colts games are averaging 54 total points this season and Panther games are averaging 46 total points, both higher than this current total of 44. Looks like perfect weather in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the low 70s, light winds, and no rain. Over is the call. |
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11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -125 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -1.5 or -125 money line over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM – Game being played in Germany - Huge game with playoff implications in Germany on Sunday morning. These 2 teams currently are sitting in the #1 and #2 playoff spots in the AFC and this game could go a long way to deciding home field advantage. Both teams are 6-2 on the year but we like KC in this one coming off a rare loss. The Chiefs were rolled at division rival Denver last Sunday 24-9, however they outgained the Broncos by more than 1.0 YPP but had 5 turnovers in the game on 11 total drives. That isn’t going to get you a win in the NFL. On top of that, QB Mahomes had an illness and nearly didn’t play so he was nowhere near 100%. Now we get KC off an embarrassing performance and they are a very good bounce back team under Andy Reid. In fact, in his head coaching career, Reid’s teams are 21-10 ATS (22-9 SU) as a favorite of 7 or fewer points off a loss. Miami has beaten a bunch of bottom tier NFL teams so far this season (Giants, Patriots (twice), Panthers, etc…) but the 2 good teams they’ve faced have beat the Fins handily. The Bills rolled this team by 28 points and the Eagles topped them by 14. They rank #1 DVOA offensively, which isn’t surprising, but their defense and special teams both rank outside the top 20 DVOA. Speaking of DVOA, the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that ranks inside the top 5 in overall, offense, defense, and special teams. KC has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 2020 season and we don’t see that happening here. With this line set under a FG, we like the Chiefs on Sunday in Germany. |
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11-04-23 | Boise State +3 v. Fresno State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -117 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
#425 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State +3 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We are on the Broncos plus the points when they travel to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs. Fresno is a ‘false favorite’ here with their 7-1 SU record on the season. The Bulldogs average margin of victory is +14.4PPG but that number is inflated after a 53-0 win over Kent and 29-0 win over Arizona State. Kent is one of the worst teams in football. ASU was without their starting QB, in a new system and had 8 TO’s in 13 possessions. According to our rankings, Fresno State has played the 97th easiest schedule in college football. Boise State is a misleading 4-4 SU this season and could conceivably have 6 straight wins with two of their losses coming by 1-point and 3-points. In their last three games they beat a surging San Jose State team, lost on a last second pass to Colorado State and then beat Wyoming badly last week 32-7. The Broncos dominated a Wyoming team that Fresno recently played and lost to by 5-points. We tend to favor strong rushing teams and Boise fits the bill with a unit that averages 195-rushing YPG at 5.1YPC. Fresno boasts some strong rushing statistics, but they’ve faced a weak rushing schedule with everyone other than UNLV ranked 70th or worse. Last week FSU was outplayed by UNLV, outrushed 156-56 but managed to win by 7-points. Boise State as an underdog since 2021 is 5-2-1 ATS. The Broncos get revenge here after losing in the conference championship game a year ago to this Fresno team. |
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11-04-23 | Kings -127 v. Rockets | Top | 89-107 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
ASA Top Play 10* on: #513 Sacramento Kings -2 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - We will back a good team in the West, the Kings, off a loss against one of the worst teams in the NBA off their first win of the season. Houston shot INSANELY well in their win over the Hornets by hitting 57% or 21 of 37 3-pointers. Going into that game the Rockets were shooting just 29.3% from deep. Houston put up 128 points but that was against a Charlotte defense that is one of the worst in the NBA. Against two comparable defenses to the Kings, the Rockets have failed to top 100 points against the Magic and Warriors. Sacramento grades out near even to the Warriors in our power ratings and Golden State was a 7-point favorite on this floor just last week. The Kings are 10th in offensive efficiency this season and 15th defensively. In comparison the Rockets are 23rd in OEFF and 27th in DEFF. Sacramento has beaten this team 6 straight times and only one of those wins was by less than 3-points. You’ll be surprised to know that the Kings are the best team in the league ATS when coming off a loss since the start of last season with a 24-14 ATS record. Lay the small points or consider the money line in the -125 range. |
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11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama OVER 61 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
#383/384 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – LSU vs Alabama, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Bama has a solid defense this year but not a high level Crimson Tide stop unit of past seasons. They have very good overall numbers but they haven’t faced a decent passing attack since Texas who put up 34 points on the Tide. The average rank of the pass offenses they’ve faces since Texas is 68th. On Saturday they face the #1 pass offense in the country led by Heisman candidate QB Jaylen Daniels who already has over 2,500 yards passing, 25 passing TD’s and over 500 yards rushing. LSU leads the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and they’ve topped 40 points in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have topped 500 total yards in every game this year but one and that was their season opener vs Florida State and they had 459 yards in that one. The Bama defense has allowed 20+ points in each of the last 3 games vs teams ranked 43rd, 45th, and 73rd nationally in scoring offense. Now they face the best offense in the country. We’re confident LSU tops 30 in this game. So can the Crimson Tide keep up offensively? Absolutely. LSU’s defense is bad. It looks like the Tiger defense may be progressing allowing 0 points vs Army and 18 points vs Auburn in their last 2 games. Forget about it. Army’s offense is one dimensional and terrible scoring a grand total of 14 points over their last 3 games combined! Auburn’s offense can’t pass (119th) so they were unable to take advantage of LSU’s defensive weakness vs the pass (91st vs the pass and 109th in YPP allowed). Prior to that, in their previous 3 games, LSU allowed 31, 55, and 39 points. The Tigers are missing a few key pieces in their secondary this week which will make it very tough to slow down an Alabama offense that has been clicking through the air. Since getting inexplicably benched vs USF early this season, Tide QB Milroe has completed almost 70% of his passes with 8 TD’s and 3 interceptions many games vs defenses much better than this LSU stop unit. Last year these 2 totaled 63 points and in 3 of the last 4 seasons they’ve gotten to at least that number. This is a keep up game in our opinion. Both offenses will have tons of success and each will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Weather looks perfect in Tuscaloosa with temps around 60 degrees with almost no wind on Saturday night. Over is the play. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -3 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great spot to fade Kansas who is coming off their biggest program win in decades topping Oklahoma at home last week 38-33. KU scored their game winning TD with 55 seconds remaining and it was storm the field time after that win. Now the Jayhawks head on the road where they are 0-3 ATS this season with their only outright win coming @ Nevada, one of the worst teams in CFB, by just 7 points. ISU is peaking right now. They’ve won and covered 4 of their last 5 games including a double digit home win over a very solid TCU team and a 7 point home win vs one of the hottest teams in the country, Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are actually tied atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma, Ok State, Texas, and KSU with a 4-1 record. Their offense is playing well scoring 27 or more in 4 of their last 5 and the Cyclones have a big edge defensively in this game. ISU sits in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed while Kansas ranks outside the top 100 in both of those key stats. KU thrives on their running game as they only attempt 25 passes per game (114th nationally) but they are facing an ISU defense that allows only 123 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC. Iowa State’s running game struggled early in the season but over their last 3 they averaged nearly 170 YPG on the ground and they are facing a KU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in YPG allowed on the ground and YPC allowed. KU clinched bowl eligibility last week in their win vs OU and they were ranked for the first time EVER in the current BCS poll. Huge letdown here and ISU continues to play well and wins at home. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 41 h 16 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston College +3 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - BC has quietly been playing very well over the last month plus with 4 straight wins. In those games their running game, now ranked 14th in the country, has been dominant, rolling up 246, 308, 321,and 203 yards rushing in those wins. That should continue vs a Syracuse team that is in a complete free fall. The Orange have lost 4 straight games and they’ve allowed an average of 210 YPG on the ground in those losses. Offensively in those games the Cuse put up 100, 92, 124, and 0 yards on the ground. Yes that’s correct in their most recent game vs Virginia Tech the Orange lost 38-10 and were outrushed 318 to 0! More concerning is they were coming off a bye leading into that Va Tech game last week and they were dominated 6.7 to 3.2 on a YPP basis. It looks like Syracuse might be done if they can’t show up with some heart and effort coming off a bye after 3 straight losses. They continue to be overvalued and have been destroyed ATS as well losing the last 4 to the number by a combined 86 points. BC QB Castellanos had an illness last week vs UConn and didn’t play very well but prior to that he had been really solid rushing for 342 yards with 6 rushing TD’s the previous 3 games. He’s also been solid passing the ball with 1,600 yards through the air and 11 TD’s. He’s going to be a big problem for this Cuse defense that has allowed at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games. The dog has covered 10 of the last 12 BC games dating back to last year and we’ll call for it again. We know this game is in Syracuse but the wrong team is favored in our opinion. |
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11-03-23 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 225.5 | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 225.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:10PM ET - This is a rematch from a game earlier this season in Cleveland where these two teams combined for 238 total points. Two things stand out from those results. 1) The Cavs had a 12-point quarter which is drastically lower than an average NBA quarter. 2) The Cavaliers played without their best player and leading scorer Donovan Mitchell who averages over 31PPG. The Pacers may be without T Haliburton here but that just means more minutes/opportunities for Aaron Nesmith who scored 26 points against this Cavs team in the first meeting. Indiana is 4th in pace of play which means they’ll want to play fast here. Cleveland is one of the slower teams, but they average 1.048 points per possession which is the 6th most efficient offense in the league. Indiana has the 2nd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.204 points per possession allowed. Cleveland hasn’t been as good defensively to start this season ranking 16th in DEFF. These two teams combined for 225 or more points in 4 of the last five meetings. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL. |
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11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play 10* on: #559 Orlando Magic Pick'em at Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Yes, you read that correctly, we are taking the road favorite Magic tonight. Scheduling will be a factor here as the Jazz are coming off a game last night versus Memphis and also just played in Denver on the 30th. Last season when playing without rest the Jazz were 4-11 SU with a negative differential. The Magic will hold a huge advantage on the defensive end of the court as they rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.001 points per possession. The last place or 30th team in the NBA in DEFF is the Utah Jazz allowing 1.223PPP. In terms of offensive efficiency these teams are nearly identical at 1.111 points per possession. The Jazz were 16-21 SU last season off a win, and this is going to be a tough situation against a rested Magic team off a loss in their previous game. Take the better defense and back the Magic. |
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11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #310 Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, 8:15 PM ET - The NFL continues to give us these miserable Thursday night games and tonight certainly fits the bill with the 3-4 Titans and 4-3 Steelers. We are on the Steelers at home off a home loss. Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way, the Steelers have been outgained in every game this season. This isn’t as significant as you may think considering their schedule includes: 49ers, Browns, Ravens and Jaguars (combined 21-10 SU record). Pittsburgh has struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in most key categories but a healthy QB Trubisky should inject some life into this offense. Let’s face it, he can’t be worse than Kenny Pickett who has the 29th worst QB rating in the league, completing 61% of his attempts for just 1,330 total yards with 5 TD’s to 4 INT’s. The Titan’s defense is 22nd in yards per play allowed 20th in passing yards allowed per game and 27th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Don’t be fooled by Tennessee’s newfound rookie QB Levis who had a few big passing plays which accounted for most of his 238 passing yards last week. We are betting he struggles here on a short week, playing in a hostile environment and facing a Steelers defense averaging 3.1 sacks per game (7th most in NFL). In the last ten years Pittsburgh has the 5th best home record in the NFL at 59-29-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +4.9PPG. We will lay the short number of -3 or less on Pittsburgh. |
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11-02-23 | Wake Forest +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest +12.5 over Duke, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Duke’s offense has gone in the tank since the injury to QB Leonard and we see no way they should be laying 10+ points with that offense right now. Leonard is still playing but not close to 100% since his injury at the end of the Notre Dame game. Since that game, the Blue Devils have scored a total of 37 offensive points in 3 games and they’ve lost 2 of those 3 games. Because of his leg injury, Leonard has had his most positive attribute taken away and that is his running ability from the QB position. In the last 2 games he’s rushed for a total of 26 yards on 11 carries for 2.3 YPC. Prior to his injury, he averaged over 6.0 YPC. Wake’s offense is not great shakes either but they shouldn’t have to score much in this one to stay within this number. The Deacs lean on the running game and they run the ball a lot (42 attempts per game – 17th most nationally). Duke’s defensive weakness is vs the run where they rank 77th allowing 149 YPG. Offensively for the Blue Devils, they’ve really struggled to throw the ball especially now with Leonard banged up. They are 116th in YPG passing and they need to run the ball well to be successful offensively. The WF defense isn’t very good vs the pass but that shouldn’t hurt them here. The Deacs are solid vs the rush allowing opponents just 128 YPG on the ground on 3.9 YPC. Historically in this cross state rivalry, Duke has topped Wake Forest by double digits just ONCE since 2000. The projected score based on the spread and total is right around Duke 28-16. We just don’t see this Blue Devil offense that’s barely scored more than that in the last 3 games getting to that number. Wake keeps this close enough to cover. |