Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-23 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Early on it looked like Charlie Morton might start this one for the Braves. Even if he did he is coming off a tough outing and more of the same would be likely here. However, it now looks like Dylan Dodd will get the start for the Braves. He has struggled in his limited major league action in this, his rookie season. Dodd also has struggled in the minors badly this season. The point is that no matter who starts here we like this over. The Pirates will take advantage of facing less-than-stellar pitching and this Braves offense remains the most dangerous in the majors. The Braves won big again yesterday and they are 12-4 last 16 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Pittsburgh, believe it not, had won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in their 9 games preceding yesterday's defeat. The Pirates should enjoy some success once again at the plate in this one as they get right back on track. However, the Braves are not going to stop hitting and the projected starter for Pittsburgh here is Johan Oviedo. Though he has been a little better of late, he is still 8-14 with a 4.27 ERA this season and this is the best team in baseball that he must face today on Saturday. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Saturday. |
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09-09-23 | Texas State v. UTSA -13.5 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA -13.5 over Texas State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the home team. Texas State is in prime letdown area coming off a huge upset @ Baylor as 28 point dogs. Baylor outgained Texas State 524 to 441 but also had 9 penalties. Coming into the season Texas State had 71 new players (2nd most in the nation) and a new coach (Kinne) who came over from Incarnate Word (FCS school). They played well last Saturday but also picked up a number of breaks and they are still learning a new system on both sides of the ball. They are taking on a veteran UTSA coming off a 17-14 loss @ Houston as a 2 point road favorite. The Roadrunners drastically outplayed Houston averaging 5.9 YPP to just 4.6 for the Cougars but had 3 turnovers (0 for Houston) which was the difference in the game. UTSA dominated in the trenches with 208 yards rushing on 5.9 YPC while holding Houston to only 101 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC. UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor was not happy after the loss. “We didn’t play winning football,” said Traylor. “Two-thirds of the triangle we did. We held them to 100 yards rushing. We were physical. I’m proud of that. Offensively, we rushed for over 200 yards. You can tell we can impose our will with our three running backs. Our passing game was not very clean. Obviously, three turnovers are hard to overcome.” Now we get a veteran UTSA team with 15 starters back after finishing with an 11-3 record last year, at home after a loss they should have won. Roadrunner Senior QB Harris (4 year starter) has been fabulous with nearly 10,000 yards passing and 76 TD’s and he’s coming off one of his worst games in recent memory (3 interceptions). You can bet he’ll play much better against this Texas State defense that allowed over 500 yards on 7.0 YPP last week. Meanwhile, we don’t anticipate the Texas State offense having anywhere near the amount of success they had last week facing a UTSA defense that held a potent Houston offense to 4.6 YPP last week. Teams coming off an outright win as a dog of 20 or more points have only covered 44% of the time the following week (Texas State). This line is too low in our opinion based on last week’s deceiving results so we’ll lay the points with UTSA. |
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09-08-23 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Cubs | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -110 over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Diamondbacks got the big win yesterday and today should be a repeat of that. Arizona's Zac Gallen is off B2B tougher starts but he is having a great season overall and plus this followed 4 straight starts in which his typical dominance was fully intact. Gallen went 3-0 in those 4 starts and allowed 4 earned runs on 18 hits in 25.1 innings and he struck out 30 batters! The only two times this season that he was off of B2B starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs in each outing he bounced back with a stellar outing each time. Gallen has not had 3 straight bad starts this entire season. He is a gamer that will come up big here against the Cubs who start a much more questionable starter in this late-season playoff-chase battle. Jameson Taillon gets the call for Chicago here and he has a 5.51 ERA on the season plus has been a bit shaky over his last 5 starts. In those outings he has allowed 26 runs (20 earned) on 33 hits in 26.1 innings! Taillon is just not on the same level as Gallen as the latter is 26-11 the past two seasons combined with a 3.00 ERA! The Diamondbacks confidence is surging off B2B wins by a combined score of 18 to 7 and they stay hot here in this one! The Cubs had been hot too but if you look at their schedule over the past 3 weeks, they had faced a combination of weak non-playoff teams and a number of slumping teams too. This game is another playoff-level game today and we like Arizona to get the job done again here. Take the Diamondbacks on the road Friday afternoon. |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs UNDER 54 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* under 54 Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - The NFL debuts Thursday night with the Lions taking on the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Lions surprised many fans and teams last year but won’t sneak up on anyone this year. Detroit made a huge jump offensively last season going from 19.1PPG in 2021 to 26.6PPG in 2022 so expect a regression this year against a tougher schedule. Gone from last year's roster are running backs Jamaal Williams (over 1,000-yds rushing) and D’Andre Swift who accounted for 23 combined rushing TD’s. The Lions gave up 25.1PPG but should be improved defensively with added personnel on the D-line and in the defensive backfield. Detroit was much better defensively in the second half of the season allowing just 20.2PPG in their last ten games. Of course, KC is one of the very best offenses in the NFL and has averaged over 29PPG the past two seasons. In their first twelve games last season they scored 27 or less points seven times. Defensively, the Chiefs were 9th in Yards Per Play defense in 2022 at 5.2 per and gave up 22.2PPG (18th). In watching the betting markets on this Total we see a key sharp Book offering a lower number than most of the public shops. That tells us the heavies are on the Under. |
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09-06-23 | Giants v. Cubs -143 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs -145 over San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 2:20 PM ET - We successfully played the over yesterday as we expected the long-struggling bats of the Giants to finally get going with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. They did just that but the Cubs outscored them in the high-scoring win that was an easy over for us. Wednesday the wind will likely be switching to westerly just before or as this game is going on. Either way, the Cubs are the team much more likely to again win a high-scoring battle if it would turn into one. Since the All-Star break, Chicago is averaging 6 runs per game and no NL team has scored more runs than them since the break. As for San Francisco, they are dead last in the majors for runs scored since the break and having averaged a paltry 3.6 runs per game. The Giants are hitting just .216 since mid-July with a dismal .344 slugging percentage. The Cubs slugging percentage over the same period is .460 - more than 100 points higher! In terms of pitching here, though we are going action on pitchers, Alex Wood has a 6.15 ERA in day games with a .327 batting average against! The Cubs Jordan Wicks is a rookie but he has been rock solid in his first two big league starts and he went undefeated in his 20 starts in the minors while earning the win in seven of those outings for a perfect 7-0 record. The Giants have lost 5 straight games and are on a 9-20 run in the last 29 games. The Cubs have won 3 straight games and are on a 13-5 run in the last 18 games. Take the Cubs at home Wednesday afternoon. |
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09-05-23 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 11 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out at a good clip here at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field for this one on a very hot September day in Chicago. That is actually leading to a big posted total here but we believe it could easily be much higher when you consider how crazy games can get at Wrigley Field when weather conditions are like this! The Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks in this one. He is 2-4 in home starts and opponents hitting .274 against him at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-5 in night games with a 4.18 ERA this season. The Giants are expected to start Ryan Walker here but he is really just an opener for this one and the San Francisco bullpen will be susceptible here. The Cubs are one of the top hitting clubs in the majors since the All-Star Break (only the Braves have scored more runs) and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the last 49 games! San Francisco should also score well here. SF has been at the other end of the spectrum (compared to Chicago) in terms of scoring runs of late but they have faced some tough pitching. Now they go from facing Steele (16-3, 2.55 ERA) to facing a guy (Hendricks) who has allowed 37 hits in 33 innings in his 6 home starts since the All-Star Break. The Giants, taking advantage of very hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley for this one, should have no problems with the offerings of Hendricks in this one and Chicago should stay hot at the plate and score a pile of runs as well. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Tuesday. |
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09-04-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Diamondbacks to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Arizona is expected to send Merrill Kelly to the mound to start this one. Kelly is 10-6 this season and has been particularly tough at home. Kelly has a 2.96 ERA in games at Chase Field this season and opponents are hitting just .187 against him in those 12 starts. As for Colorado, Peter Lambert will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He went 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his 6 starts last month. In his MLB career, Lambert is 6-12 with a 6.36 ERA and opponents are hitting .303 against him in his MLB career. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 5.32 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Diamondbacks bullpen has not been great but they are better than the Rockies! Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season as, overall, the Rockies are 21-48 this season in road games including losses in 27 of last 35 away from home! Also, they are 22-58 this season against teams with a winning record. Additionally, 68 of the Rockies 86 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of Arizona's 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin. The Diamondbacks are tied with 3 other teams - Marlins, Reds, Giants - for the 3rd and final wild card spot (amazing 4-way tie now) in the NL with just 25 games remaining in the season. Arizona is still fighting hard while the Rockies are dead last in the entire NL and simply can't wait for the season to be over. The Dbacks are 38-21 against teams with a losing record and are off B2B losses but had won 8 of 9 home games prior to the tough defeats to the Orioles. All the edges point to the home team and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Diamondbacks. Lay it! |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State -16 v. San Jose State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 38 h 19 m | Show |
#233 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State (-) over San Jose State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - SJSU has one game under their belts getting whipped by USC last week 56-28. The Spartan defense gave up over 500 total yards and forced USC to punt only twice in the game. San Jose did put up a solid 28 points on a USC defense that looks to be weak again this season. Last year the Trojans finished outside the top 100 in total defense which is head coach Lincoln Riley’s MO – great offense, bad defense. This week will be much more difficult as the Spartans face an undervalued Oregon State team that had the top defense in the Pac 12 last year allowing 338 YPG. Offensively, the Beavers should have big time success, similar to what USC did last season. This offense is underrated in our opinion. They averaged 29 PPG last season but we expect that to jump to closer to 40 PPG this season. QB DJ Uiagalelei who was the starter at Clemson the last 2 seasons, will be under center. Word from Corvallis is he has looked fantastic leading up to this one. He’ll operate behind a very experienced offensive line that we rate as one of the best in the country. The rushing attack averaged right around 200 YPG last year and with their 3 headed monster in the backfield (Martinez, Newell, and Fenwick) behind that offensive line we look for this to be one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Many might think that because SJSU played last week they have the advantage. That simply isn’t the case. In fact, it’s the reverse. OSU now has game film to prepare for this game while San Jose does not. Since 2005, teams playing for the first time in a season facing a team that played the previous week are 56-33 ATS (63%). We feel that OSU will be able to move the ball on the Spartans nearly as well as USC did last week, however SJSU won’t have the luxury of facing a bad defense this week. Lay it. |
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09-02-23 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if you call the pitching match-up even - and we do not feel that way as the Blue Jays have an edge - the fact is Toronto has a huge overall team edge and the stronger batting lineup and better bullpen. The Rockies season is over and they have lost 4 straight games and are 21-57 this season against teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays are in a dogfight for a playoff berth as they are having another strong season and are also 36-19 this season against teams with a losing record. You can see the odds strongly favor another road win here and Toronto won yesterday's game 13 to 9. The Blue Jays 74 wins this season have included 51 by a mult-run margin. The Rockies 85 losses have included a whopping 67 by a multi-run margin. The Jays Kikuchi is 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA this season. The Rockies Blach has worked out of the bullpen for much of his career and he has a 4.97 ERA in his career and has been hit at a .295 batting average this season. More of the same expected here and the Colorado bullpen is a weakness also. We will lay the run line with the road team in this evening game Saturday! |
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09-01-23 | Phillies v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Low total but this one will play out like a playoff game and also is set up to be a pitchers duel. These two teams have identical records and this is a critical game entering the final month of the season. The Brewers are at the top of the Central Division but the Cubs and Reds not too far behind. The Phillies are leading the Wild Card race but have to be concerned also with Cubs and Reds as well as the Giants and Diamondbacks. So this game already will have a playoff feel to it with both teams at 74-59 on the season. Neither team was in action yesterday so the bullpens are in great shape entering this game off an off-day. Based on bullpen ERA the Phillies are ranked 4th in the National League and the Brewers are ranked 2nd in the National League. As for the starting pitchers here, the Brewers Freddy Peralta went 5-0 in August and Milwaukee is 6-0 in his last 6 starts and he has allowed just 7 earned runs TOTAL in those 6 starts. He has been dominant. As for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, he has a 2.68 ERA and has held hitters to a .194 batting average - these stats in his 8 starts since the All-Star break. Both pitchers have been dominating the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is very true that good pitching tops good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 41 h 3 m | Show |
#145 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +7 over Minnesota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Huskers start a new regime with former Temple, Baylor, and Carolina Panther coach Matt Rhule at the helm. He turned around the Temple and Baylor programs and we have no doubt he’ll get Nebraska headed in the right direction. Unlike his first year stops with the Owls and Bears, he has some solid talent here at Nebraska. It’s not total rebuild as the others were. The offensive line is experienced with 120 career starts which is 2nd only to Michigan in the Big 10. New QB Sims has started for 3 years @ Georgia Tech prior to this season and has 4500 passing yards, 1200 rushing yards, and 41 TD’s to his credit. He has a big experience edge over new Gopher QB Kaliakmanis who started some games last year for an injured Tanner Morgan but completed only 54% of his passes and threw more interceptions than TD’s. Minnesota has relied heavily on their running game but lost the schools all time leading rusher Ibrahim to the NFL and his back up Potts transferred to Penn State. The Minny O Line ranks 108th nationally in returning starts to they have some inexperience up front as well. The Gophs defense was very good last season but lost 7 of their top 11 tacklers and we think that Nebraska can keep them guessing with this new offense Rhule brings. With Scott Frost at the helm, the Huskers found ways to lose games whether it was poor special teams play, turnovers, etc… They were close to being decent to say the least with 13 of their 17 losses the last 2 seasons coming by one score or fewer (8 points or less). This series has seen 3 games in a row decided by 7 exactly points and we think Rhule will clean some things up and they’ll play more efficiently. This is expected to be a low scoring game (43 is the total) and we like it to be a close one. Take the points here. |
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08-30-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - Stop the presses...the A's actually won a game against a good team yesterday. All kidding aside, it has absolutely been a dreadful season for Oakland and so wins catch some attention especially over good teams. Not only is Oakland 20-63 against teams with a winning record, they are also 7-29 in divisional games and an insane 9-44 in day games! The Mariners had won 12 of 13 games prior to yesterday's loss and they are 25-7 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the Athletics shocking everyone by winning this series by notching B2B wins. Seattle is 43-24 against teams with a losing record and 23-12 in divisional games. Oakland very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The Athletics last 24 losses have included plenty of ugly ones and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 70 of Oaklands 94 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 56 of 75 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. As for the pitchers here, Bryce Miller is now 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA in home games and 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA in day games! He has held opponents to a .218 batting average in his 11 home starts this season. Oakland's Zach Neal has struggled at the minor league level so it is no surprise his major league numbers are unimpressive as well. Neal had a 6.87 ERA in the minors last season and had a 5.40 ERA this season which also has been the 4th straight year at the minor league level in which Neal has allowed at least a .292 batting average! No big surprise that Neal has been hit at a .324 clip for the A's this season and walks have also been an issue for him. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the Athletics pen ranks dead last at 30th in MLB! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 12 of their last 15 wins coming by a margin of at least 2 runs. Note the 94 to 30 combined score in those 12 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the home team in this day game Wednesday! |
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08-29-23 | Angels v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Tyler Anderson for the Angels and Michael Lorenzen for the Phillies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Angels bullpen certainly should help the cause as well. Taking a look at WHIP, the Angels bullpen (1.48 WHIP) is ranked 27th on the season. The Phillies continue pounding the ball and have averaged 2 home runs per game in the month of August! Huge run at the plate is in progress for the Phillies and, at the same time, you look at this Angels lineup and it is a respectable one even without Trout. Yesterday the Phillies went just 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position and the Angels left 10 men on base yet the game still totaled 10 runs. Today's should get at least that as well. Note that Anderson has been getting roughed up on the season and in his last 3 starts. Anderson is 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA this month. The Phillies Lorenzen had that gem of a no-hitter earlier this month but, even with given some extra time to recuperate and recover after that, his last two starts have been a dose of reality and he has been getting hit hard. More of the same is expected here as our computer math modeling showing 10 or more runs is likely in this one. The Angels 12 of last 19 games have totaled double digits in runs. The Phillies have won 8 of 11 games and 7 of the 11 games totaled double digits. Philadelphia scored an average of 7 runs in these 11 games! Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.
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08-28-23 | Brewers +111 v. Cubs | Top | 6-2 | Win | 111 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers +110 over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers. Yes, the Cubs bullpen has been solid this season but the Brewers bullpen is even better and has the 3rd lowest team ERA in the NL for bullpens! The expected starters - though we like this play even if the starters do not go - are Wade Miley and Jameson Taillon. The Brewers are heating up again and are the hottest team in the league right now with 8 straight wins! The Cubs have been playing well too but are off B2B wins here and are actually 1-5 the last 6 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more. Chicago has gone 29-36 against teams with a winning record this season and, though solid in divisional games, the Brewers have been even better with a 24-12 record in divisional action. Milwaukee is also 56-37 this season against right-handers. Again, even if there was a starting pitching change we like the road team here. Chicago is expected to start Taillon and he has a 6.08 ERA this month and has allowed a homer in each of his 5 August starts! Look for Milwaukee to make it 9 straight wins as they build on their 8-game winning streak and Miley could certainly play a role in that. The Brewers left-hander has allowed only 8 earned runs in 26 innings over his last 5 starts! The Cubs struggles when entering a game on a winning streak continue here as they face the top team in their division. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at an underdog price range of +110. |
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08-27-23 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 17-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Astros are 41-20 this season against teams with a losing record. The Tigers are 30-47 against teams with a winning record this season. Detroit has not played well at home this season as they are 8 games below .500 when hosting. The Tigers 11 of last 12 losses have been defeats by a multi-run margin. The Astros have won 11 of last 17 road games and 12 of their last 15 victories have been by 2 or more runs. More of the same expected here as Houston got back on track with a big 9-2 win yesterday and they have the pitching edge here in addition to the overall team edge. Astros bullpen ranks 8th for team ERA while the Tigers bullpen ranks 18th for team ERA this season. Houston's slugging percentage in road games ranks 5th in the majors while Detroit's slugging percentage in home games ranks 28th in the majors. In terms of starting pitching, the Tigers Alex Faedo continues to give up big hits and have those trouble spots. Yes, Faedo has been better than last season's 1-5 with a 5.53 ERA on the year but still this season he has a 5.65 ERA in home games and this is a tough spot for him facing the defending champs. Conversely, the Astros again have Justin Verlander on their squad after getting him back from the Mets. Verlander was with the Tigers for more than a dozen years to start his career so this is always a special start for him facing the team he started his career with nearly 20 years ago. Verlander comes into the start producing very well as usual and he has been red hot since the start of July and it has carried into his move back to Houston this month. it continues here against the light-hitting Tigers! We’ll lay the -1.5 here. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt UNDER 56.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 56.5 Hawaii @ Vanderbilt – 7:30 PM ET - There will be some contrasting styles of play of display Saturday when the Rainbow Warriors take on the Commodores at Vanderbilt. Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang wants to play fast with his Run and Shoot offense as the Warriors averaged 72.2 plays per game a season ago which was 29th most. Even though the Warriors played fast, it didn’t translate to a lot of scoring. Hawaii was 124th in points per drive, 121st in Yards Per Point Scored at 18.3, 102nd in Red Zone Attempts per game at 2.9 and 103red in offensive TD’s per game. Hawaii also averaged just 4.9 Yards Per Play which ranked 98th in the nation. Hawaii returns 5 starters on that side of the football and even though they want to play fast, it will be tough sledding against a SEC defense. Hawaii had some terrible defense statistics a year ago allowing 34.7PPG but they also faced some top ranked offenses such as Western Kentucky, Michigan and Fresno State. Vanderbilt wants to run the football, dominate possession time, and grind down opponents. The Dores were 119th in pace of play a season ago and also struggled to put up points. Vanderbilt was 120th in points per drive, 79th in Yards Per Point scored at 14.8, 103rd in Red Zone Attempts per game and 86th in offensive TD’s per game at 2.6. Vandy averaged just 5.1 Yards Per Play last season. The Commodores gave up 36PPG last season but take a look at the gauntlet of offenses they faced: Wake Forest, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee who were all some of the highest scoring teams in college football. Last season when these two teams met, they combined for 73 total points. Vandy scored on a 87-yards rushing TD and had two fumble returns for touchdowns. Vanderbilt will again rely on their running game here as they did last season when they gouged the Warriors for over 400-rushing yards. |
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08-26-23 | Bills -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#121 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Both teams plan to play their starters in this game which gives the Bills a solid edge. How long the regulars play is in question for both teams, but even when the starters come out, Buffalo is the deeper and better team and laying under a FG is a decent play here. The Bills are coming off a 27-15 loss @ Pittsburgh last weekend. In that game, the Bills outgained the Steelers 5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP but Buffalo had 13 penalties (just 4 for Pittsburgh) and they turned the ball over 4 times. 17 of Pittsburgh’s 25 points came on drives of 25, 13, and -1 yards. A week earlier the Bills beat Indy and outgained the Colts by 1.2 YPP so they’ve outgained both opponents by more than 1.0 YPP. Chicago is also 1-1 (loss vs Colts & win vs Titans) but they’ve been outgained in both games (total yards). Our word is Justin Fields continues to struggle with accuracy in camp and while he is 3 for 3 in the preseason, 2 of his passes were short dump offs to WR Moore and RB Herbert that went for big yardage (both TD’s). We like the better, deeper team to close out the preseason with a win. Lay the small number with Buffalo. |
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08-25-23 | Rangers v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Twins have won 7 of last 9 home games and have allowed an average of only 3.3 runs in these 9 games. The Rangers have lost 7 straight games and Texas has scored just 3.1 runs on average in these last 7 games. That said, Texas is likely to struggle again at the plate here as Sonny Gray has held hitters to a .191 batting average in his 4 August starts plus he has a home ERA that is below 3.00 in the last two seasons combined here in Minnesota! The Twins also are likely to struggle at the plate in this one. Minnesota will be facing Dane Dunning and the Rangers right-hander is 9-5 with a 3.19 ERA this season! He has a 2.98 ERA in his road appearances this season. Dunning has struck out 33 in his 25.2 innings this month and has held hitters to a .224 batting average. The Rangers have a rather high bullpen ERA but their WHIP is only 1.24 which ranks 5th in the majors and shows that Texas has some tough pitchers in their bullpen. The Rangers bullpen is certainly better than the ERA suggests and note that the Minnesota bullpen WHIP is also solid at 1.28 and that ranks 12th out of 30 teams in the majors. North wind expected for this one so the wind likely to be blowing in from left-center field which also helps the cause in this one. Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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08-24-23 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Reds off double-header sweep on the road yesterday and now on the road again for this one. That makes this a tough spot for Cincinnati and they are running into a tough hurler too. The Diamondbacks are starting Merrill Kelly in this one and he is 7-3 with a 2.51 ERA in his night starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .206 against him in his evening games and just .200 against him in his home starts. The Reds are expected to counter with Brandon Williamson here. He has a 5.24 ERA in night games this season and a 4.43 ERA so far in the month of August. Williamson is facing an Arizona team that has won 9 of 11 games and 7 of those 9 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The Reds have now won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 5-12 stretch for Cincinnati and 9 of those 12 losses were by a multi-run margin. That is why, instead of laying the bigger juice on the money line in this one, we turn to the run line for maximum line value here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +125 comeback range with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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08-23-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - Seattle has won the first two games of this series by an aggregate score of 20 to 5! The Mariners have won 8 straight games and are 21-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in the finale of this 3-game series. Chicago is 21-50 this season against teams with a winning record. Seattle is 39-22 against teams with a losing record. The White Sox have lost 20 of 28 games (28.6% winning percentage!) after dropping the first two games of this series! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 23 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 55 of Chicago's 77 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of 71 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-60 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, George Kirby is in his 2nd season in the majors and, just like his rookie season, he has been consistently solid. He is now 18-13 with a 3.30 ERA in his 49 career MLB starts and has held opponents to a .187 batting average in his 3 starts in the month of August. Chicago's Michael Kopech has a poor record again this year and now has a combined 10-20 record since the start of last season. Kopech has particularly struggled since the start of July as he had a 6.61 ERA in his 4 starts last month and has a 9.88 ERA in his 3 starts this month. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 4th in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB! This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 9 of their last 11 wins. Note the 65-23 combined score in those 9 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the road team in this day game Wednesday! |
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08-22-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Guardians | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-125) over Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 13 of 14 games and is 17-2 last 19 games plus 62 of the Dodgers 76 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes rookie Bobby Miller providing a strong push for this team! Miller is 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA in road starts this season! He also is dominating August with a 1.15 ERA in his 3 starts for the month. Now he can dominate a Guardians team that has never faced him! As for Noah Syndergaard against the Dodgers, LA has a number of hitters that have experience against him. Also, Syndergaard has certainly not been at his best this season! He enters this start having allowed at least 5 earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts! More of the same is likely here as the Dodgers stay hot while Cleveland's tough run continues. The Guardians have lost 22 of 36 games. Also, just because they are at home for this series does not mean they will right the ship! Cleveland has lost 7 of last 10 home games! 19 of the last 25 Guardians losses were by 2+ runs! The Dodgers have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their current run of 17-2 last 19 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday. |
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08-21-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - The Mariners have won 6 straight games and are 19-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in Game One of this series. Chicago is 21-48 this season against teams with a winning record. Seattle is 37-22 against teams with a losing record. The White Sox enter this game off a rare win and had lost 18 of 25 games (28% winning percentage!) before that win! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 21 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 53 of Chicago's 75 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 51 of 69 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-58 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, Luis Castillo had a 2.99 ERA and held opponents to a .212 batting average last season and he is at it again this year. Castillo has compiled a 3.23 ERA and has held hitters to a .216 batting average on the year. Chicago's Touki Toussaint is on his 4th team in 3 seasons so that says a lot about him. He is struggling again this year with a 1-5 record and he has a 5.14 ERA in his MLB career. Toussaint is winless with a 6.91 ERA in his 3 starts this month. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB! This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 7 of their 8 wins before Sunday's tight 1-run win at Houston. Note the 45-18 combined score in those 7 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the road team in this one! |
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08-20-23 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - The wind is NOT expected to be blowing out here at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field for this one. That is actually helping to keep this posted total lower than it should be when you consider the way these two teams have been trending of late as well as the starting pitching match-up here. The Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks in this one. He has a 7.20 ERA in the month of August and is 1-4 with a 5.36 ERA in home games this season! The Royals are expected to start Jordan Lyles here and he is having a very tough season. Lyles is 2-7 with a 7.19 ERA in road games this season. In day games this season, the right-hander is 1-7 with an 8.73 ERA this year. Lyles has been showing no real signs of any improvement lately and the Cubs are sure to make him pay as they are one of the top hitting clubs in the majors over the last 30 days and also have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the last 32 games! The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so that also helps the cause here. Kansas City should also score well here. KC has seen 7 of last 8 games total at least 9 runs. These 8 games have averaged 12 runs and the Royals have scored an average of 6 runs during this stretch. They should have no problems with the offerings of Hendricks in this one either considering his numbers at home and in his recent action. Yesterday's game reached double digits in runs even though KC went 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position. Look for a better cash-in rate with the run-scoring opportunities in this one and it should reach at least ten runs and our computer math models are expecting it to finish closer to a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Sunday. |
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08-19-23 | Pirates v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
#978 ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Sonny Gray to start this one. Gray is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his 3 August starts and has struck out 25 while walking just 3 in his 19 innings this month! As for the Pirates, Mitch Keller will be the likely starter here. Keller is 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA in his 6 starts since the All-Star break and he has been hit at a .340 clip in these 6 outings! On the season Keller has a 5.00 ERA on the road and a 5.03 ERA in night games. Also, Twins are heating up again with wins in 4 of their last 5 and their 2nd half record being mediocre overall was certainly impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 13th home game since the break and they have had wins in 9 of 12 home games since the break. Also, 55 of the Pirates 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 37-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Pittsburgh is 28-50 against teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 64 wins this season have featured 48 of the 64 (75%) coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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08-18-23 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The wind is NOT expected to be blowing out here. That is actually helping to keep this total lower than it should be when you consider the way these two teams have been trending of late as well as the starting pitching match-up here. The Cubs are expected to start Jameson Taillon in this one. He has a 6.17 ERA in home games this season and is 1-5 with an 8.91 ERA in day games this year! The Royals are expected to start Cole Ragans and the 25 year old has made only 13 starts in his MLB career so he is still getting adjusted to starting at this level. That was evident in his most recent outing. Even though he was at home, Ragans gave up 6 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings for an average of 2 baserunners per inning. The Cubs are sure to make him pay for a performance like that as they one of the top hitting clubs in the majors over the last 30 days and also have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in the last 30 games! The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so that also helps the cause here. Kansas City should also score well here. KC has seen 6 straight games total at least 9 runs. These 6 games have averaged 13.5 runs and the Royals have scored an average of 6.7 runs during this stretch. They should have no problems with the offerings of Taillon in this one either considering his numbers at home and in day games. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday. |
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08-17-23 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - Similar to our play on the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last night, Boston's Chris Sale is a recent returnee from injury with one start under his belt since the return. Just like last night's blowout win for LA, we expect a similar result here and this time it is with the Red Sox at Washington. Sale had a stint on the injured list but has had a solid run and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in early June after finding his stride this season with a solid month of May in particular. Over his last 7 starts, Sale has delivered a 2.43 ERA with a solid 48 strikeouts against just 5 walks in the 42 innings spanning those 7 starts. He should dominate here at Washington and he should get plenty of run support. Patrick Corbin is the expected starter for the Nationals and he is having another rough season. Corbin now has a record of 24-53 since the start of the 2020 season and opponents are hitting .323 against him in his home starts this year! Since the start of the 2020 season he has allowed an opponents batting average north of .300 and the Red Sox should pound him here. Boston is 21-13 against left-handed starters this season. On the season, 47 of 63 Red Sox wins and 49 of 67 Nationals losses have been by a multi-run margin. Washington is 30-43 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston has a respectable bullpen while the Nationals bullpen has an ERA that ranks dead last in the National League. As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday. |
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08-16-23 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 9 straight games and us 13-1 last 14 games plus 59 of the Dodgers 72 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes Clayton Kershaw. He went 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA in June and held hitters to a .181 batting average for the month. He then had a stint on the injured list but has had a huge season and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in June after 3 months of a solid season! Kershaw began August with a solid 5-inning stint versus Colorado. Now he can dominate the Brewers just like he did in May earlier this season in Milwaukee when he was also matched up with Wade Miley. Kershaw allowed just 1 earned run on only 5 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters. As for Miley against the Dodgers, that was one of his worst starts of the season. Miley allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings in that start as LA rocked him. More of the same is likely here while the Brewers mediocre run continues. Milwaukee, after yesterday's 6-2 loss to the Dodgers, has gone 11-12 last 23 games. 10 of those 12 Milwaukee losses were by 2+ runs and, on the season, 45 of 55 Brewers losses have been by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 13 wins in their current run of 13-1 last 14 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday. |
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08-15-23 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 115 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Bailey Ober to start this one. Ober has a 3.03 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .233 against him in those 11 starts. Though he was hit hard in most recent start it was at Detroit and he did strike out 9 in 6 innings in that outing. Look for him to get revenge here against the Tigers as now Minnesota is hosting in this divisional match-up and the Twins have won 7 of 9 home games since the All-Star break. As for the Tigers, Alex Faedo will be the likely starter here. Though he was on the mound when the Tigers just beat Ober and the Twins, he was not overly impressive in that outing including allowing 2 homers. Faedo has been fortunate in that most of his outings have been at home this season but now this will be just his 3rd start on the road this season and he allowed 3 homers in under 10 innings in the two prior starts away from home. We love the fact that the Twins are seeking revenge for dropping 3 of the last 4 games in the recent series loss at Detroit. Also, Twins are off B2B wins and their 2nd half record has been impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 10th home games since the break and, again, they had wins in 7 of 9 home games since the break. Also, 50 of the Tigers 65 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 34-24 against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 27-40 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 62 wins this season have featured 46 of the 62 coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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08-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
#906 ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Max Scherzer to start this one. Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .215 against him in those 8 starts. Also, he has been rock solid so far this month in August as he has gone 2-0 in his first two starts since coming to the Rangers from the Mets. As for the Angels, Patrick Sandoval will be the likely starter here. Though he has pitched better overall of late, his recent numbers on the road show that the damage away from home definitely could have been much worse. Sandoval, in his last 4 road starts has allowed 19 hits and walked 11 in 20 innings for a 1.50 WHIP. Also, The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.22 WHIP ranks a solid 5th in the majors! Conversely, the Angels bullpen WHIP ranks them in the bottom 5 in the majors! The Angels are off a win but this followed losses in 9 of last 11 games. Also, 46 of the Angels 60 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers are off a loss but this followed wins in 10 of last 11 games! Also, Texas has gone 35-19 against teams with a losing record this season. The Angels are 34-44 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 70 wins this season have featured 61 of the 70 (87% of them!) by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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08-11-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
#975 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The White Sox will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Chicago at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that continues to struggle with command. Michael Kopech is walking far too many batters, not getting enough strikeouts, and the lack of command can lead to mistake pitches at the most inopportune times. Unlike Kopech, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered an absolutely phenomenal month of July! Burnes has allowed just 10 earned runs on only 17 hits while striking out 52 in the 45 innings over his 7 starts since the end of June. A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Kopech, in 34 innings since mid-June, has walked 34 batters - yes one walk per inning for the past two months of work! He is lucky the damage has not been even worse but indeed he has allowed 10 earned runs in 14 innings over his last 3 home starts and Kopech is likely to get hammered again here. The Brewers have scored 5.6 runs a game in last 13 games. The White Sox are off a 9-2 win but this followed a 3-6 stretch in which Chicago scored an average of only 2.7 runs scored per game. 50 of 69 White Sox losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 2 runs per game in their last 7 road wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 10th compared to White Sox ERA ranked 24th on the season. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one.
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08-11-23 | Steelers -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 40 h 28 m | Show |
#109 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with the Steelers favored by 1.5 and has jumped a bit. We like them here at -3 or lower and right now (Wednesday evening) the line is set at -2.5 at most shops. We like Pittsburgh’s QB rotation quite a bit which is key in the pre-season with backups and 3rd stringers getting a lot of time. They will start with Kenny Pickett who was solid last year as a rookie throwing for nearly 2500 yards on 63% completions. Pickett struggled a bit early in the season but Pitt won 5 of their final 6 games last season and their lone loss during that stretch was 16-14 vs Baltimore, a game Pickett sat out the majority of in concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are fighting for the back up spot and both have plenty of NFL experience, including starting experience. We have Pittsburgh’s offensive line & overall defense rated ahead of Tampa’s entering this season. The Bucs will start Baker Mayfield and QB and then move to Kyle Trask. Mayfield has been up & down at best in his career (61% career completion percentage) and Trask has attempted only 9 career passes in the NFL. The coaching edge is heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor with Mike Tomlin over Tampa’s Todd Bowles. Tomlin has put an emphasis on performing well in the pre-season with a SU record of 15-4 the last 5 seasons. Bowles was 0-3 SU in the pre-season last year, his first as Tampa’s head coach. Pitt beat the Bucs 20-18 last year in the regular season and that was with Brady at QB for TB. We like the Steelers to win this one by more than a FG. |
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08-05-23 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
#977 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 7:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 30-80 and with 58 of their 80 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, the A's enter this game just 19-67 when facing teams with a winning record this season and here they face a tough test as the Giants are 12 games over .500 on the season. The Giants are 7-2 last 9 games and San Francisco certainly holds an edge in the pitching department here. Ross Stripling is likely to draw this start. The A's have only one batter that has ever had a hit against Stripling so their experience against him is limited to say the least. Additionally, Stripling has been better than his full season numbers show. Since late June, Stripling has allowed 12 earned runs in 30 innings. With Oakland struggling so badly and also having little experience against him, Stripling should have a solid outing here. The Athletics are expected to start Paul Blackburn here and he is coming off an ugly July in which he compiled a 6.26 ERA and opponents hit .340 against him in his 5 outings (4 starts). Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Giants bullpen ERA of 3.58 ranks them TOPS in the National League. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with San Francisco being on the road. Based on all of the above edges we like SF here with action on the pitchers and feel the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -105 money range with the Giants should be much higher. Lay it! |
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08-04-23 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - Both these pitchers have struggled often this season. Expected starters are Patrick Corbin for the Nationals and Graham Ashcraft for the Reds. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as plenty of signs are pointing to the over here including the fact that the Cincinnati bullpen has a WHIP that ranks them 23rd in the majors and the Washington bullpen has an ERA that ranks them 29th in the majors. The Nationals have won 8 of 13 games and have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Looking at their last 19 road games, 12 of them have totaled at least 11 runs and these 19 games have averaged 11.5 runs so do not let this big total at 10.5 keep you away! Especially on a warm evening in Cincinnati, these are the type of conditions in this hitter-friendly ballpark that produce big run totals! As for those expected starters, Corbin has a 5.43 ERA on the road and a 6.39 ERA in night games this season and opponents are hitting over .300 against him just like last season! Ashcraft has a lower ERA recently but he has been fortunate as his strikeout numbers are down and he is still giving up quite a few hits too. Overall this season Ashcraft has struggled and at home he is 3-6 with a 6.17 ERA this season. He faced the Nationals once this season and only allowed 1 earned run but he had just 2 strikeouts while walking 3 batters, hitting one, and allowing 7 hits. So Ashcraft allowed 11 baserunners in 6 innings and was very fortunate to work out of numerous jams. Ashcraft will not be so fortunate in this go around and the Nationals trending toward high-scoring road games continues. Helping the cause is the fact the Reds are back home where they have scored 38 runs in last 6 games. Also, though they are off a 5-3 road loss yesterday, Cincinnati had scored 30 runs in the 4 games leading into that one. We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here and we expect a successful challenge on our part and this game gets to at least a dozen runs. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Friday. |
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08-03-23 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Luke Weaver for the Reds and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the weather is expected to favor an over with warm temperatures again and the wind direction being east or southeast at Wrigley Field for this one. Taking a look at ERA, the Cincinnati bullpen is ranked 17th and the Chicago bullpen is ranked 15th in the majors with each club having about a 4.00 ERA on the season. So the pens are not horrible but they are not great either. Yesterday's 16-6 game followed Tuesday's 20-9 game and we look for the bats to stay hot in this one. The Cubs are 12-3 their last 15 so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer winning stretch. With yesterday's high-scoring win included, the Cubs are scoring an average of about 7.5 runs per game in their 18 games since the All-Star Break. The Reds have won 9 of last 14 games and have averaged 5.3 runs scored per game in last 13 games. Chicago's Jameson Taillon is coming off a solid July but he continues to get hit hard at home. This season, in home starts, Taillon is 2-4 with a 6.43 ERA and opponents hitting .317 against him when he is on his home mound! Cincinnati's Luke Weaver is having another rough season and he is getting hit at a .306 clip this season after an opponents batting average of .335 last season! His struggles are highly likely to continue here as the Cubs are a confident bunch (to say the least!) at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Cubs pitching is likely to go tonight means the Reds should answer Chicago run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Thursday evening. |
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08-02-23 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Brandon Williamson for the Reds and Drew Smyly for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the weather is expected to favor an over with warm temperatures and a south wind blowing out at Wrigley Field for this one. Taking a look at ERA, the Cincinnati bullpen is ranked 15th and the Chicago bullpen is ranked 16th in the majors with each club having about a 4.00 ERA on the season. So the pens are not horrible but they are not great either. Yesterday's 20-9 game is a sign of things to come here as the bats stay hot in this one. The Cubs are 11-3 their last 14 so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer winning stretch. With yesterday's high-scoring win included, the Cubs are scoring an average of 7 runs per game in their 18 games since the All-Star Break. The Reds have won 9 of last 13 games and have averaged 5.3 runs scored per game in last dozen games. Chicago's Drew Smyly is coming off a rough July and this followed a rough June too! He was 1-2 with a 6.65 ERA last month after going 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA in his 5 starts the prior month! Cincinnati's Williamson has been pitching a little better of late. However, Williamson has struggled in evening games this season (5.19 ERA in 10 starts) and we expect that to continue here as the Cubs are a confident bunch (to say the least!) at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Cubs pitching is likely to go tonight means the Reds answer Chicago run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening. |
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08-01-23 | Mets v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Zack Greinke for the Royals and Jose Quintana for the Twins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus both the Mets and the Royals bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Kansas City bullpen is ranked next to last in the AL so far this season with a 5.16 ERA. The Mets bullpen is not ranked too much higher as they are 18th in the majors with a 4.11 ERA this season. The Royals are off a 2-1 win and that was their 3rd straight win so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer win streak. Prior to that low-scoring win, 3 straight KC games had totaled at least 11 runs! The Mets have won 8 of last 13 games and have averaged 5 runs scored per game in last dozen games. Kansas City's Zack Greinke is coming off a rough July and this followed a rough June too! He was 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA last month after going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA in his 5 starts the prior month! New York's Quintana is trying to return to form but he is still working his way back from a rib injury he suffered back in March and he has been hit at a .293 batting average in his first two starts this season which both were last month in July. Quintana has struggled on the road in recent seasons and we expect that to continue here as the Royals are a confident bunch at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Royals pitching is likely to go tonight means the Mets answer KC run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening. |
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07-31-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers just got swept by the Braves in Atlanta. The Braves are having a fantastic season and now Milwaukee goes from facing one of the best teams in the majors to facing one of the majors' worst. The Brewers are now in DC for this series and the Nationals have the worst home record in the N.L. with a 20-33 mark on the season. Also, against teams with a winning record this season, Washington is 25-42. The Brewers, prior to the series with Atlanta, had won 11 of 14 road games. Washington just lost 3 of 4 games and scored a total of only 4 runs in the 3 losses! Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will likely make for another night of misery for the Nationals at the plate while the Brewers should quickly break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up. Burnes has been top notch this season and is having an absolutely phenomenal month of July! Burnes has allowed just 6 earned runs on only 11 hits while striking out 42 in the 33 innings over his 5 starts this month. A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Nationals are expected to start Jake Irvin (6.32 ERA since All-Star break) so this is also a play against situation the way we see it. Irvin is a rookie and still going through some growing pains at the MLB level and this comes as no surprise given his minor league stats either. This season he has had a 5.64 ERA at the AAA level and last year he was 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA at the AA level. 45 of 62 Nats losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.5 runs per game in their last 6 road wins. They again shutdown the opposition and their bats should flourish against Irvin and a Nationals bullpen that is dead last in the N.L. with a 5.40 ERA this season. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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07-30-23 | A's v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 12.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Athletics are swinging hot bats and another slugfest is expected at hitter-friendly Coors Field this afternoon. Oakland's last 3 games have all totaled at least 11 runs and the games averaged 13 runs. The first two games of this series at Coors Field each totaled at least 13 runs. Yesterday's game was the 4th time in 5 games that a Rockies game has totaled at least 23 hits and a couple of those games were in Washington DC so it is not just about the Coors Field effect. That said, the Rockies continue to hit the ball well but their weak pitching is an issue. That includes a bad bullpen which will again be exposed in this game Sunday. That's because Ty Blach is the expected starter here but he is more of an opener and it was actually a surprise he even lasted 3 innings in his most recent appearance. Blach has been hit at a .422 clip in his home appearances this season. Also, he has spent significant time in the minors this season and last season he got hit at a .301 clip and he has been hit at a .290 clip in the minors this season. Blach will struggle against a surging A's lineup but we also look for Colorado to have a huge day at the plate here as well. Luis Medina is 0-3 with a 6.94 ERA in afternoon games this season. Medina is also 1-4 with a 7.16 ERA on the road and this is one of the toughest road venues in baseball. Look for another wild one here on a warm afternoon in Denver as this match-up also pits two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA. Over is the call in this afternoon match-up Sunday.
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07-29-23 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Now off a rare win yesterday, Kansas City is in the perfect spot to be faded. KC got the walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th and now will likely be flat today after the big celebratory win in dramatic fashion last night. The Royals just do not win back to back games very often. Indeed, it has been a dreadful season for Kansas City and they have gone 2-14 the last 16 times they were off a win! Dating back to mid-May, the Royals have won B2B games just TWICE! Incredibly, the longest winning streak for KC is just 2 games this entire season! The Twins enter this game off 3 straight losses and that certainly is noteworthy here. That's because Minnesota has only lost more than 3 in a row a single time this entire season! The Twins, when entering a game on a losing streak of exactly 3 games, have won that 4th game all but one single time this season! Minnesota's record in this situation is 7-1 so you have a fantastic play on situation for the Twins and a solid play against situation for the Royals. This is all before talking about the pitchers which is also a huge edge for Minny here. Bailey Ober gets the call in this one and he has been rock solid over his last 5 starts and has a 2.16 ERA in the month of July. Ober was strong in his only start against KC this season. The Royals Jordan Lyles, on the other hand, got rocked by the Twins in his most recent start against them this season. Also, Lyles allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his start against the Yankees Sunday. Lyles is 1-12 with a 6.19 ERA this season! Lyles is 0-6 at home and 0-5 in night games this season. The Royals are 18-56 against teams with a winning record this season. The Twins are 24-12 against teams with a losing record this season. 40 of 54 Minnesota wins by at least a 2-run margin this season. 62 of 75 Royals losses by a multi-run margin this season. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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07-28-23 | Yankees -119 v. Orioles | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -120 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - We will go action on pitchers here. The Orioles have Grayson Rodriguez listed as a starter and the Yankees are expected to start Gerrit Cole here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Cole and a play against Rodriguez so we are in good shape either way. Cole enters this one having another strong month as batters are hitting just .196 against him in July and he has struck out 31 in 25.2 innings! Grayson Rodriguez has struggled badly for the Orioles in his home starts this season. Rodriguez has a 9.11 ERA with a .348 BAA in his 6 starts at home in Baltimore this season. He could be facing a Yankees lineup rejuvenated by the bat of Aaron Judge who is expected to be activated for this game as he has completed his rehabilitation after injury. The Yankees have won 4 of 5 games. The Orioles have lost B2B games. Also, Baltimore has lost 2 of the last 3 home games. The Yankees are ranked #1 in the majors for bullpen ERA and their pen is also #2 for batting average against. The Orioles bullpen has a solid ERA but the batting average against numbers for the Baltimore pen ranks them 22nd out of the 30 MLB teams. The point is that Baltimore has been fortunate with the low bullpen ERA thus far this season. So, all factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a very fair money line price in this one. Look for New York to build momentum off the 3-1 win over the Mets Wednesday. The Yankees get the win this evening in Baltimore. |
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07-26-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers UNDER 10 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 4:07 PM ET - Yesterday's game was 3-3 entering the 8th inning before a wild finish that saw the Dodgers ultimately prevail 8-7 in 10 innings. That crazy finish is helping lead to line value here as 10 is an awfully big total for this game at Dodger Stadium Wednesday afternoon. Yusei Kikuchi is projected to start for the Blue Jays here and he appears to be back on track after the All Star break. Kikuchi has given up only 1 earned run in 10 innings over his two starts since the break. Remember this is following a month of June in which he had a 2.28 ERA over his 5 starts for the month. Consider his tough pair of outings that occurred just before the All Star break absolutely an aberration. Tony Gonsolin has some interesting stats for the Dodgers of late and we feel it is leading to line value here. Though some of his ERA numbers have been up of late, this is still a guy who has struck out 38 over his last 42 innings. Gonsolin has given up only 4 hits in 10 innings over his two starts since the break. His batting average against is only .194 this season and this is the same pitcher who is 31-9 in his career with a .185 batting average against. Don't be surprised if we see a pitchers duel develop in this one. Remember we talked about yesterday's game being 3-3 entering the 8th and now we remind you that Monday's series opener was 2-2 entering the 8th before that one ended up a 6-3 Blue Jays win in 11 innings. This total has been driven up too high and the pitching will be the story in Wednesday's series finale. We are going strong with the Under in this one. |
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07-25-23 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these pitchers have struggled often this season. Expected starters are Trevor Williams for the Nationals and Austin Gomber for the Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Rockies have won 6 of 9 games since the all-star break and have scored 5 runs per game in those 9 contests. Colorado got the 10-6 win here at Washington yesterday and the Nationals have gone 7-5 last dozen games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 12 games. Both bullpens have had struggles this season and that was the case for both clubs again yesterday! After ugly performances in the late innings from each pen yesterday, take a look at their updated numbers here. The Rockies 4.65 bullpen ERA and Nationals 5.50 bullpen ERA ranks them as the bottom two bullpens in the National League this season! As for those expected starters, Williams has allowed 29 hits and 13 earned runs in 22.2 innings over his last five starts. Gomber has a 6.18 ERA this season. He faced the Nationals once this season and allowed 5 earned runs in under 5 innings of work. We know what you are thinking...that was at Coors Field so it deserves an asterisk next to the performance. However, the last time he faced the Nats in DC was in late May of last season and he allowed 8 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in a start that lasted only 1.1 innings! The total on this game is relatively low considering the way these two lineups have been producing as we noted above. We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here. Over is the call this evening in our nation's capital. |
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07-24-23 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Pirates have slumped badly after that miracle early season start they had. It is hard to believe now but, at one point early this season, Pittsburgh was 20-8. Now, from the month of May onward it has been an entirely different story. The Pirates enter this game on a run of 23-48. Also, Pittsburgh's 56 losses have included 47 by at least a 2-run margin. The Padres are playing their first home game since the All-Star break. Though San Diego is off a loss yesterday, this followed wins in 4 of last 5 games. Also, the Padres have won 5 of last 6 home games. 42 of San Diego's 48 wins have been by a multiple run margin. Given these facts, if you like the Padres to win this game you can see why we have excellent value at the -1.5 runs here as 84% of Pirates losses and 88% of Padres wins by at least a 2-run margin this season. The pitching helps the cause here too as Quinn Priester is making just his 2nd MLB start. His first outing last week saw him get crushed for 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Priester will prove to be no match for the Padres Yu Darvish. The veteran right-hander tends to be very strong at home but he had rare struggles in his last 2 starts at home. Now, entering this start off B2B strong road outings since the All-Star break, Darvish is ready to resume his typical home dominance. In his two starts entering this one, Darvish has allowed only 1 earned run on just 9 hits while striking out 16 in 12 innings! Here he should dominate a struggling Pirates lineup. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily make a case that the price in the -120 money range with the Padres should be much higher. Lay it! |
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07-23-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 28-73 and with 53 of their 73 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, and even including yesterday's rare upset win over the Astros, the A's enter this game just 5-25 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough spot as the defending champs are looking to avoid a 2-2 series split. The odds certainly favor the Astros bouncing right back as Oakland is just 6-38 in day games this season. Truly incredible numbers that favor Houston to respond immediately off the upset loss here and knock off the A's. The Astros are 21-12 against divisional opponents this year and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 10-4 last 14 games on the road! Hunter Brown is likely to draw this start. Brown has dominated the Athletics in both starts against them this season! Brown allowed just 3 earned runs only 9 hits while striking out 19 in the 13 innings over those two starts. Brown is off a tougher start at Colorado but he really settled in after a tough first inning and that was at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Brown has struck out 35 over his last 24 innings and can again dominate a weaker lineup that has struggled against him this season. The Athletics are expected to start Luis Medina and he is 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA in his 4 day game outings this season. He allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his start against the Astros this season. Medina allowed 10 baserunners in that outing and also gave up 3 homers to Houston in that one! Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.69 ranks them 5th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 6-4 Friday and that sent the Athletics to their 10th loss in 12 games. Now, after a rare Oakland win last night, the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -130 money range with the Astros should be much higher. Lay it! |
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07-22-23 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, Grayson Rodriguez just recently returned from the minors because he had been sent down for a lengthy period in which he was struggling so badly. Rodriguez did not look much better in his return from the minors. Some pitchers just never quite cut it at the MLB level no matter the success they have in the minors. This is one rookie who might end up fitting that bill. Rodriguez has a 7.33 ERA in the majors this season in his 11 starts and opponents are hitting .311 against him. He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start last week which was his first start since being called up again. As for the Rays, they are expected to start a true ace in Shane McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start since coming back from a minor injury. He just pitched at Texas last week and that is a tough Rangers team and he dominated in that outing. This is not a huge surprise as he has dominated again all season long. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.56 ERA this season and he is coming off a stellar season last year for Tampa Bay too. With yesterday's 3-0 shutout win, the Rays are now 36-16 at home this season. The Orioles are having a strong season too and these clubs are battling it out at the top of the AL East division right now. However, the edges in home field and starting pitching both go to TB here. Also, 29 of the Orioles 38 losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. 47 of the Rays 61 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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07-21-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 27-72 and with 52 of their 72 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this game just 4-24 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough one as the defending champs are in town. The Astros are 20-11 against divisional opponents this year and 18-10 versus left-handed starters. This match-up is a battle of southpaws and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 9-3 last 12 games on the road! Framber Valdez is likely to draw this start. Valdez has a 2.76 ERA this season and it is no fluke as he went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA last season! Valdez has held opponents to a .227 batting average for the season and also has held opponents to a .227 batting average in his 6-year career. The Athletics are expected to start JP Sears and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 17 innings over his last 3 home starts. Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.64 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.70 ranks them 7th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 3-1 last night and sent the Athletics to their 9th loss in 11 games. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -140 money range with the Astros should be even higher. Lay it! |
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07-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 111 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 12:20 PM ET - The Braves have now lost 4 straight games. The last time the Braves had a losing season was 2017 and, ironically, that is also the last time that Atlanta has had a losing streak of more than 4 games! In other words, it has been over 5 YEARS since Atlanta has had a losing streak of at least 5 GAMES! The Braves are 33-20 this season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 26-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 13-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-16 against all NL teams this season! In terms of the pitching edge here, the Braves Spencer Strider is 11-3 with a 3.66 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks Zac Gallen has equally impressive overall numbers but there is one key factor about his numbers. Gallen has been Jekyll and Hyde in terms of his road versus home performances. This season on the road Gallen is 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA. Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games prior to this rare 0-4 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 20 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +110 comeback range with the Braves. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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07-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - It is hard to believe that the team with the best record in baseball scored 13 runs and yet still lost yesterday. That was these Braves and we had them right here as they blew leads of 13-12 and 11-8 in the eventual 16-13 defeat. We look for Atlanta to immediately respond today on Wednesday. The Braves are 33-19 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 25-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 12-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-15 against all NL teams this season! Charlie Morton is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and he has been delivering a fantastic July with a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA so far this month for Atlanta. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Ryne Nelson, has been at the other end of the spectrum of late with Arizona losing 4 of his last 6 starts. Nelson has allowed 18 earned runs on 40 hits in 32 innings over his last 6 starts. The Braves are off 3 straight losses and haven't lost 4 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-3 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 19 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -110 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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07-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Entering this series, the Braves are 33-18 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 22-26 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 11-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-14 against all NL teams this season! The Diamondbacks are in for a tough test here from the team with the top record in the NL as Elder is likely to draw this start. Bryce Elder has a 2.97 ERA so far this season and he has made 10 night game starts already on the season and is undefeated with a 4-0 record in those match-ups. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Zach Davies, is 1-5 on the season. He has a 6.37 ERA on the season and now has a combined 9-22 record over the 2021/22/23 seasons! The Braves are off B2B losses and haven't lost 3 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here and Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-2 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 18 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. We also like the fact Elder's last start was a rare bad one and now he will bounce back against an Arizona team whose lineup could struggle as they have never faced him. The Braves, on the other hand, have 10 hitters with experience against Davies. 7 of those guys have at least 4 at bats against him and all 7 of those have at least 1 RBI with a total of 15 RBIs in 70 at bats combined. That is a great ratio as it equates to a hitter having 105 RBIs in a 490 at-bat season. The hosts should roll big in this one. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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07-16-23 | Twins -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 10-7 by Minnesota yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 9 starters in the lineup that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .225 or less on the season! Minnesota, on the other hand, has a team slugging percentage of .403 on the season and that is 48 points higher than the Athletics slugging percentage on the season. That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Twins have a pitching edge here too. Minnesota's Joe Ryan is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA in day games this season and also holding hitters to .195 batting average in day games this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send JP Sears to the mound. The lefty has pitched a little better of late but has a 1-6 record on the season plus has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last two home starts! Oakland is 14-42 against teams with a winning record this season. Minnesota has won both the first two games of this series and is looking to move to 8-4 against AL West teams this season with another win here. 37 of the Twins 47 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-37 in day games and 54 of their 69 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is that the Minnesota bullpen is strong and ranks in the top 8 teams in the league while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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07-14-23 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -115 or -120 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers. This is a big game right of the gate in the Central Division as the 2nd half of the season gets underway post-All Star Break. We like the Brewers here as they have won 6 of last 8 road games and are taking on a divisional foe that has lost 3 of 5 home games and has not been great at home this season. In fact, the Reds 23-21 record at home is no better than the Brewers road record which is also 23-21. Each club has played 26 divisional games and Milwaukee is 17-9 in divisional action while Cincinnati is 12-14 in divisional games. All of the above supports a value play on the Brewers here and that is before even analyzing the expected pitching match-up here which is Corbin Burnes (with a big edge) against Graham Ashcraft. Note that Burnes is 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA in night games and opponents hitting just .202 against him under the lights. Ashcraft, on the other hand, is 2-5 with a 7.95 ERA in his home starts this season and opponents hitting .297 against him in his home ballpark. Though Ashcraft had a good start in his only outing so far in July, let us not forget that he got completely steamrolled with a combined 1-6 record in his 10 starts in May/June and a very ugly ERA of 9.66 over the starts spanning those two most recent months. Burnes has been great in both starts against the Reds this season while Ashcraft got destroyed in his only start against Milwaukee this season. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at a nearly pick'em price range of -115 to -120. |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 1:40 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Cleveland rolled 10-6 yesterday and piled up 18 hits. Kansas City is 12-45 this season against teams with a winning record. KC has lost 6 straight games and 10 of 13. The Royals are known for getting blown out and 15 of last 16 losses have been by 2+ runs. Cleveland has won 13 of 19 games. In terms of the pitching match-up here, Shane Bieber dominated the Royals earlier this season and has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs the last 4 starts he has made against KC! The Royals get Ryan Yarbrough back for this one most likely. The southpaw started his MLB career with some solid numbers the first two years but has since gone 14-23 and his combined ERA 2021-23 is a 5.03 ERA and he is on pace for his 3rd losing season the last 4. Remember that Yarbrough has missed significant time due to taking a line drive to the head. He suffered multiple fractures from that and his first start back could be a little rough. Either way, we like the home team here without regard to the starting pitchers. Cleveland is hotter and stronger than the ice cold Royals and the Guardians bullpen ERA is 3.11 and ranks 2nd in the majors while the Royals 5.14 ERA ranks their bullpen 2nd to LAST in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Guardians. Lay it!
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07-08-23 | A's v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 7-3 by Boston yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 11 batters that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .208 or less on the season! Boston, on the other hand, had hitters in their lineup from leadoff through the #5 spot that all are hitting better than .250 on the season. That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Red Sox have a pitching edge here too. James Paxton is coming off a fantastic June in which he went undefeated in his 5 starts and produced a 1.74 ERA. The Boston southpaw also has a 1.69 ERA in his 3 home starts this season and was solid in his only day game start this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send Paul Blackburn to the mound. The righty has a 5.06 ERA in road starts and a 4.98 ERA in day game starts. Opponents hit .282 against Blackburn last month and he began July by getting rocked for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Oakland is 17-55 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston is on a 3-game winning streak and 34 of their 46 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-34 in day games and 48 of their 65 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is Boston bullpen is respectable and ranks in the middle of the pack while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. Also, Boston is one of the top home hitting teams in the league while Oakland is one of the worst road hitting teams in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Red Sox. Lay it!
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07-06-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals dropped to 25-62 with their 5-0 shutout loss at Minnesota last night. Keep in mind, KC was facing a Twins hurler (Pedro Lopez) last night that had given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of last 7 home starts! If they could not scratch anything off him they are certainly unlikely to have success against a Guardians hurler that is in strong current form. Tanner Bibee has a 2.38 ERA at home and opponents have hit just .195 against him in his 6 home starts this season. Bibee should dominate here and the Guardians also should pound Jordan Lyles. He is off his first win of the season. Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in the start but finally got a win after KC was 0-15 in his first 15 starts this season! We have no hesitation here in fading a guy that, when on the mound, the Royals have gone 1-15 this season. Lyles has allowed 17 earned runs in 25 innings over his last 4 starts. In May he went 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA. In April, his final 5 starts saw Lyles allow 23 earned runs in 30 innings. Consistency matters and, in this case, Lyles has struggled consistently this season without a doubt. Even if he is not the starter here and even if Bibee (so strong at home) does not go, we still like the better team at home to win this game by at least 2 runs. 12 of the last 13 KC losses have been by at least 2 runs! Cleveland is off a tough series with Atlanta and just got blasted by the Braves 8 to 1 but they are 17-7 this season when off a loss in which they were held to 2 or less runs. In terms of bullpen ERA, Guardians are 2nd in MLB and Royals are 29th in MLB. Blowout likely here. Rain expected, particularly early in the day in Cleveland, but it should clear up well enough by the time this game rolls around. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -105 money range with the Guardians. Lay it! |
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07-05-23 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Alec Marsh for the Royals and Pablo Lopez for the Twins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Royals bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Kansas City bullpen is ranked next to last in the AL so far this season with a 5.06 ERA. This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 which is an excellent value and set-ups don't get much better than this. The Royals 8 of last 10 road games have totaled double digits in runs and we only need 9 runs to be a winner here. The Twins 6 of last 7 home games have totaled at least 9 runs. Kansas City's Marsh has made only 1 MLB start and he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings and was hit hard plus had issues with his command. Looking at his minor league career stats this should not come as a surprise. Marsh is 8-23 with a 5.72 ERA in his minor league career! Now he faces a red hot Twins lineup. The hosts should score very well but we look for plenty of success from the road dog here too. That's because Minnesota's Lopez has struggled at home this season. He has been great on the road but has a 5.94 ERA in his home outings. Also, this will be the 3rd time this season he is facing the Royals so they are very familiar with him. Also, the most recent time was in Minneapolis and KC got to him for 6 runs in 6 innings in that late April outing. Kansas City has scored an average of 5 runs per game over the last 6 games. The Twins have won 4 straight home games and in those victories they have averaged 7 runs scored per win! Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening. |
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07-04-23 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros, Tuesday at 4:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Kyle Freeland for the Rockies and Brandon Bielak for the Astros. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Rockies bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Colorado bullpen is ranked dead last in the NL so far this season. The big total might seem a little scary but set-ups don't get much better than this. The Rockies most recent game totaled 23 runs Sunday. The Astros most recent game totaled 23 runs yesterday. Colorado's Freeland has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings in his 3 most recent starts. The Astros Bielak has struggled so much that his most recent start was in the minors. Now he is back at the MLB level but has not started in awhile. Bielak has allowed 12 earned runs on 24 hits in 16.2 innings over his last 3 MLB starts. 9 of the last 15 Astros games have totaled at least 11 runs! Houston has scored an average of 7 runs per game over the last 11 games. 9 of the last 14 Rockies games have totaled at least 11 runs! Colorado has scored an average of 6 runs in the last 5 games. Over is the call in this one Tuesday afternoon. |
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07-03-23 | Braves -151 v. Guardians | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves (-155) over Cleveland Guardians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals and the Athletics are the only two teams in baseball that have less than 33 wins and each of those clubs have 25 or less wins on the season! What does that have to do with this play? Well, the Guardians are starting rookie right-hander Gavin Williams in this one and he has been solid in his first two starts but those are the two teams he has faced - Oakland and Kansas City. Now Williams is facing an Atlanta team that has won 8 straight games and is the hottest team in the majors plus has the highest winning percentage (.675) in the majors with a stellar 56-27 record on the year. Atlanta is worth a strong rated play in this price range as the Braves are on a win streak and the Guardians are still a game below .500 on the season. Also, Cleveland has been nothing special at home this season and plus they are facing a tough Braves hurler in Bryce Elder in this one. Elder has a 1.43 ERA in his 6 road starts this season and is undefeated in those with a 3-0 record and a .195 batting average against away from home on the year! Atlanta has won 23 of 26 games so when you consider all factors in this match-up, this is a rare opportunity to get one of the best teams in baseball and the hottest team in MLB at a reasonable money line price. We will take advantage and grab that opportunity. Lay it! |
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07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
#964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - The Blue Jays lost a tight one yesterday to the Red Sox and that was on Canada Day too so it was a particularly tough home loss for Toronto. We look for a big bounce back effort from the Jays here as a result. We like this play regardless of the starting pitchers but the Blue Jays do have a strong pitching edge here as a well. Kevin Gausman has made 17 starts this season and only 3 of them have been tough. In his other 14 starts he has allowed only 14 earned runs in 92 innings! That equates to a minuscule 1.37 ERA in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Gausman can bring it and has a 2.48 ERA at home this season plus is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in day games this season. The Red Sox are going with Garrett Whitlock here and he has allowed 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings spanning his last two starts. Boston is at .500 on the season and Toronto is 19-6 this season against teams that do not have a winning record. The Red Sox are unlikely to get the sweep at Toronto and, prior to these B2B wins, had lost 7 of 8 games. Before these B2B losses, Toronto had won 6 of 8 games. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a comeback price in the +105 money range with the Blue Jays. Lay it! |
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06-30-23 | Padres v. Reds OVER 11 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Graham Ashcraft for Cincinnati and Seth Lugo for the Padres. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as both teams off a stretch of high-scoring games plus match-ups at Great American Ballpark continue to trend toward big runs. Also, the Reds bullpen has an ERA that ranks them in the middle of the pack this season. Recently, neither pen has been special. The Reds last 17 home games have averaged totaling 11 runs apiece with and 11 of last 19 home games totaling at least 11 runs. This is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the Padres are ready for a breakout game at the plate after a tough little stretch at the plate following a run in which they won 9 of 15 games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game. San Diego is expected to have Lugo on the mound and he has allowed a .275 batting average this season. As for Reds starter Ashcraft, he has allowed 47 earned runs in just 33 innings over his last 8 starts this season! The Reds are scoring an average of 5 runs per game when at home this season but they also are giving up 5.2 runs per game on the year and the Padres can score well here against Ashcraft and a suspect bullpen. Cincinnati has scored an average of 7 runs per game last 11 games. Over is the call in this one early Friday evening. |
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06-28-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 48 of 79 games this season and that includes having lost 12 of 16 when they are entering a game off a win. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that do not have a winning record, they have won 24 of 36 games. After Washington won yesterday's game 7-4 in 11 innings, here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 30 of their 38 wins come by at least a 2-run margin. The Nats have seen 34 of their 48 losses come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Logan Gilbert here and he has been dominating regularly the past two months. He has only 2 tougher starts since May 1st and the other 8 outings have seen him allow a total of only 15 earned runs in 51.2 innings! The Nationals are likely starting Patrick Corbin here and he is 21-51 the last 4 years with consistently high ERA numbers. This season his ERA is 6.34 in road games. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-27-23 | Rays v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Taj Bradley the expected starter for the Rays and he has been a strikeout machine. Zac Gallen the expected starter for the Diamondbacks and he has been fantastic at home this season. Gallen is 7-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his 8 home starts this season! So why not a bet on Arizona here rather than the under? Well, we expect the Diamondbacks lineup to struggle with the Rays in this one. Bradley has a 2.13 ERA in his five road starts this season. Also, the Rays bullpen ranks 4th for BAA and 8th for WHIP out of all 30 teams in the majors. The way we see it, the Dbacks lineup struggles here no matter who is on the mound for Tampa Bay. As for the Rays lineup, they are facing a top-notch starting pitcher here. Gallen has been strong for years and has been nearly unhittable this season at home as evidenced by his 1.00 ERA on the year at home. Entering this game, 12 of last 15 Rays road games have totaled 8 or less runs. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this total to an 8 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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06-25-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Anthony DeSclafani for San Francisco and Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Diamondbacks and Giants both continue to trend toward high-scoring games. Also, these two bullpens are okay but not great as they rank in that middle 10 of the 30 teams in the majors based on bullpen ERA numbers so far this season. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.12 ERA on the season and the Giants bullpen has a 3.77 ERA on the season. As for the starters here, DeSclafani had a good April but he has not been overly impressive since and, in fact, has been hit quite hard in 4 of his last 6 starts. In those 6 starts he has allowed 22 earned runs in 29 innings! We look for the Diamondbacks to hit him hard as they remain hot at the plate. Also, the Giants should pound Nelson. The Dbacks righty has been hit hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. Nelson has struggled, other than one scoreless outing in this stretch, and has given up 16 earned runs on 30 hits in 19.2 innings in those other 4 starts. The Giants are off a 7-6 win over Arizona and that means a SF game totaled double digits in runs for the 9th time in 11 games. 13 of Diamondbacks last 19 games have totaled at least 9 runs! We expect double digits here as the wind will be blowing out a good clip for this afternoon game at Oracle Park and afternoon games in San Francisco do tend to invite more scoring than chilly night games here in the summer. We look for plenty of runs today regardless of the starting pitchers so we will go with "action" on the pitchers. But, the fact is those starters look to certainly help the cause if they get the ball here! Over is the call in this one Sunday afternoon. |
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06-24-23 | Rangers -135 v. Yankees | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -135 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -135 over New York Yankees, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - Jonathan Gray is off a rare bad start and we look for him to bounce right back here. Gray had allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 straight starts before he got rocked in his last start. Also, he gave up just 22 hits in just 43 innings in those 6 starts. Gray is having a fantastic season and his last start notwithstanding, has been pitching lights out. Luis Severino has been trending the opposite direction and is getting absolutely crushed in June. Severino has allowed 19 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings in the month of June and opponents are hitting .349 against him this month. The Rangers are off a 4-2 extra innings win yesterday here in the Bronx and have been red hot with wins in 33 of last 50 games. The Yankees have been going the other direction with losses in 15 of 26 games! We really like Texas in this spot. Regardless of the pitchers we have the hotter team here but we definitely also do have a starting pitching edge. Gray is highly unlikely to have back to back bad starts the way he has been going while Severino has consistently been roughed up. Lay it with the road team in this one! Take the Rangers |
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06-23-23 | Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - There is some rain in the Detroit area this morning but it is expected to move out by mid-day today so the weather should be fine for this early evening match-up. Little cool for late June standards and a light northerly breeze should also help the cause here in a park that is known for being friendly to the pitchers. The Twins and Tigers bullpen each have a WHIP that ranks them in the top ten in the majors. As for the starters here, Kenta Maeda has been very sharp in his minor league rehab appearances leading into this one. The Minnesota righty has his MLB numbers inflated this season due to just one bad start and this is is a guy that can be very tough to hit. Here Maeda will take advantage of facing a Tigers team that ranks as one of the worst in the majors at the plate with a .229 batting average and a .365 slugging percentage. As for Detroit starter Joey Wentz, he shows some ugly full season numbers to the betting markets but he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Remember he was strong last season too and he appears to be rounding into form again now. Wentz is off a fantastic start against these same Twins as he held them to just 2 hits while striking out 9 in 6.1 innings of work! That start was in Minnesota and now he gets them in his home park in Detroit. Note that the Twins are hitting .219 in road games this season. That ranks them 29th of 30 teams in the majors. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this line to 8.5 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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06-19-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Osvaldo Bido for the Pirates and Drew Smyly for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus both of the bullpens certainly should help the cause as well. Taking a look at ERA, the Pirates bullpen and the Cubs bullpen both rank in the bottom fourth of the league so far this season. The Cubs have won 7 of 9 games and have been hitting well during this stretch and averaging 6 runs scored in those 9 games. Look for Chicago to maintain this hotter stretch of hitting. They will be helped here by the fact they just faced Bido and the Pirates bullpen last week. Also, Pittsburgh just faced Smyly and the Cubs bullpen last week and the Pirates, season after season, do tend to hit better when at home. Pittsburgh should take advantage of facing a struggling Cubs pitcher, Smyly, in this one as he has struggled and been hit hard in his last 4 starts. The Cubs lefty has allowed 30 hits in 22.1 innings in this 4-game stretch! The Pirates also have a starter, Bido, likely to struggle on the mound for this one. The right-hander is a rookie making just his 2nd start and giving the Cubs a quick second look at him. He went 10-20 with an ERA in the 5.00 range in the last 3 seasons combined at the minor league level. More of the same here at home in just his 2nd MLB start. Over is the call in this one Monday evening. |
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06-18-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -118 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Blue Jays are only 20-20 in road games this season and the loss yesterday dropped Toronto to 22-28 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 23-13 in home games this season. We get line value here because Chris Bassitt has decent overall numbers on the season and is on the mound for the Blue Jays in this one. The fact is he is not pitching as well as Jonathan Gray this season plus Bassitt is known, throughout his career, for struggling more on the road than at home. His ERA throughout his career on the road has included seasons with ERA numbers of 5.12, 7.47, 4.54, 4.56, 4.00 and this season's 5.77 thus far. Basitt's road struggles have resumed this year as the season has gone along as he has been roughed up in 3 of his last 4 appearances on the road including 8 homers allowed in those 3 ugly road appearances! He’s facing a Texas line up that has been very good all season at home where they are ranked #2 for batting average (.281) and also #1 with a .491 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6.3 RPG this season at home. They will send red hot Gray to the mound. He has allowed just 4 earned runs total in his last 6 starts! For the season Gray has an ERA of 2.32 overall and has enjoyed pitching in afternoon action as he has a 3-0 record in day starts. This is the 4th straight season that Gray has been stronger in day games than in night action. Bassitt is 0-2 with a very ugly 14.59 ERA in his 3 day starts this season. Take the Rangers |
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06-15-23 | Angels v. Rangers -125 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -125 over Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Los Angeles has been red hot but this is a tough spot for them and we’ll fade the Angels tonight. They won Tuesday for their 8th win in 9 games but they lost to the Rangers yesterday in the third game of this 4-game set with Texas. More of the same on the way here as the loss dropped the Angels to just 12-20 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 22-11 in home games this season. We get line value here because Shohei Ohtani is on the mound for the Angels in this one. The fact is he is not pitching as well as Nathan Eovaldi this season plus Ohtani is known, throughout his career, for struggling more on the road than at home. His ERA throughout his career is practically twice as high on the road compared to at home in Anaheim where he does tend to be tough. Ohtani's road struggles have resumed as this season has gone on as he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 appearances on the road! He’s facing a Texas line up that has been very good all season at home where they are ranked #1 for batting average (.287) and also #1 with a .500 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6.6 RPG this season at home. They will send red hot Eovaldi to the mound. We look for him to bounce back after a rare tougher outing vs Rays in Tampa in his most recent start. For the season Eovaldi has an ERA of 2.49 and a 9-2 record. Prior to the start versus TB, in looking at his 6 starts leading into that one, he allowed 1 earned run in one of them and 0 earned runs in 4 of them! Eovaldi has been rock solid this season including an 8-0 record in his last 10 starts! Take the Rangers |
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06-14-23 | Brewers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 125 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Twins have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .223 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Minnesota ranks 7th with a 3.50 ERA while the Brewers rank 22nd with a 4.29 ERA. Milwaukee is on a 5-game losing streak. That included an ugly series sweep at home at the hands of the league-worst Athletics. Then, the manner of loss yesterday in the Brewers 5th straight defeat will be really tough to come back from. Milwaukee led that game 5-3 going to bottom of the 9th but then allowed 4 runs including 2 on a walk-off homer that finished them off. The Brewers are in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one. Note that Milwaukee's 33 losses this season have included 29 by at least a 2-run margin! The Twins 34 wins have included 27 by at least a 2-run margin. So the odds here certainly favor a Twins win coming by a multi-run margin. Minnesota has won 15 of 25 home games since late April. The Brewers have lost 13 of 20 road games over roughly the same time frame. As for the pitching match-up here, the Brewers Colin Rea has allowed 10 earned runs in 16 innings in his last 3 road starts! The Twins counter with Bailey Ober and he has a 2.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .200 batting average in his 9 starts this season. The Brewers 5-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and 12 of the last 13 losses for Milwaukee have been by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -8.5 vs Miami Heat, Game 5 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - The Heat have been a fantastic story this postseason after upsetting the two best teams in the East to make the Finals, but their season comes to an end tonight. Miami got some incredible contributions from a few of their role players but it’s apparent that Cinderella story has come to an end. Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson have essentially disappeared in the Finals and Adebayo/Butler can only carry the load so far. Denver’s three wins in this series have all come by double-digits and in the most recent game they got a less than normal performance from their two SuperStars Murray and Jokic. With the Nuggets back at home where they are 9-1 SU in the playoffs, and currently own an average +/- of +9.9PPG on the entire season, we expect a convincing win against a team that has run out of gas. The Nugs have also won 37 of their last 42 home games. |
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06-12-23 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Luke Weaver for the Reds and Zack Greinke for the Royals. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at WHIP, the Reds bullpen is ranked 18th out of 30 teams and the Royals bullpen is ranked 29th so far this season. The Reds have won 12 of 20 games and have been hitting well in recent weeks. Prior to yesterday's 4-3 victory staying under the total, Cincinnati had 15 of 19 games total at least 9 runs during this hotter stretch of hitting. Though KC has not been hitting well they have been on the road. The Royals do tend to hit better when at home. Though the Royals might be the worst team in baseball, their .404 slugging percentage at home does rank them in the middle of the pack, 14th, in MLB so far this season. KC should take advantage of facing a struggling Reds pitcher, Weaver, in this one as he has had only 2 good starts out of 9 this season. In his other 7 starts, Weaver has allowed 32 earned runs in 35.2 innings! The Royals also have a struggling starter, Greinke, taking the mound for this one. The veteran right-hander is 1-6 with a 4.59 ERA this season and just got roughed up at Miami. More of the same here at home. Over is the call in this one Monday night.
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06-11-23 | Royals v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 112 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #5 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 17-10 record and 3.34 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 9-14 record and 4.86 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 8-32 in games against teams with a winning record this season! Baltimore is 21-9 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 46 losses this season have included 39 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Gibson has a 7-3 record and 3.87 ERA this season! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 24.2 innings over his last 4 starts! The Royals counter with opener Carlos Hernandez but Mike Mayers is expected to get the bulk of the work here. This is another reason we like action on the starting pitchers. Hernandez, the past two seasons, has an 0-8 mark and 6.29 ERA. As for Mayers, he has made only 4 appearances so far this season and he has struggled in 2 of his 3 road outings. The first one, walks were an issue and now in his most recent outing he got crushed at Miami. Orioles enter this game with wins in 13 of 18 games against Central Division opponents this season. Of last 25 wins, 20 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this one on a 5-game losing streak and have lost 23 of last 30 on the road. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* MIAMI HEAT +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 4 Friday 8:30 PM ET - This is tough for me as we predicted the Nuggets in 5 games but with how the last game played out, we expect Game 4 to go down to the wire. The Nuggets adapted in Game 3 after the Heat used Jimmy Butler as the primary defender on Murray in G2 and it paid off with Jamal scoring 34-points. Now it’s Spoelstra’s turn to make an adjustment and we’re confident he will have a new dynamic in Game 4 for the Nugget to try and figure out. Denver used Jokic and Murray in an exclusive 2-man game and told the rest of the team to watch and it worked perfectly. Miami’s defense wasn’t the main culprit though as their offense failed them. The Heat shot just 37% overall and 31% from the 3-point line. In the postseason, the Heat are shooting .469% overall and .392% from beyond the arc. Miami has been the best overall 3-point shooting team in the playoffs. With their backs against the wall, we like the Miami shooters to find the range at home in this do-or-die Game 4. Miami is 17-6 SU at home off a loss this season including a 5-2 SU record in the postseason. Grab whatever points are available. |
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06-08-23 | Astros v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 or 8.5 Runs – Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET - Both teams have been struggling at times of late to score runs and you have two red hot starting pitchers on the mound and two rock solid bullpens as well. Toronto has won 9 of 12 games but actually scored 3 or less runs in 4 of last 6 wins! In last 7 games at home in Toronto, the Blue Jays have had only one big game at the plate. In the other 6 games they have scored an average of only 3.3 runs per game. The Astros are 4-4 last 8 road games. They have often struggled to score many runs on the road in recent road trips. Overall, in last 4 games whether home or away, Houston has been held to 2 or less runs scored in 3 of the 4. Even off B2B losses in this series, the Astros have allowed an average of only 3 runs in their last 6 games on the road. As we mentioned above, very solid bullpens supporting these two starters and both appear primed for big starts here. Framber Valdez is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. Overall he has been dominant as Valdez allowed 4 earned runs in 1 of his dozen starts this season but allowed a total of only 15 earned runs in the other 11 starts! Taking a look at the Jays Jose Berrios, he is red hot! Berrios was 7-2 at home last season and he has a 2.22 ERA in his 4 home starts this season. Also, the overall numbers for Berrios are impacted by 3 tougher road starts including his very first 2 starts this season. Other than those 3 (again, all on the road and a couple from two months back!) he has allowed a total of only 12 earned runs in 9 starts! This game has the makings of a 3-2 final and could even finish as a 2-1 pitchers duel. The pitching dominates again in this series in Thursday's game. We are going strong with the Under in this one.
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06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat, Game 3 Weds 8:30 PM ET - We’ve hit our two Side wagers on the first two games of this series and will now bet the Over/Under in Game 3. We like UNDER the Total and expect a lower scoring game. In the opener these two teams combined for 197 total points on 175 FG attempts. Miami had a poor shooting night and only attempted 2 FT’s in the game. In Game 2 there were only 153 field goal attempts, yet the game creeped Over the Total of 216 when 219 points were scored. The big reason that Over cashed was incredible shooting by the Heat in the 4th quarter. Miami made 7 straight FG’s to start the 4th on their way to a 36-point quarter. Both teams also shot well above expectations in Game 2 so expect a regression in Game 3. As far as the pace of play is concerned these two teams were two of the slower paced teams in the league during the regular season ranking 2nd slowest (MIA) and 8th (DEN). Both of these teams have averaged fewer possessions per game in the postseason too. The Nuggets head coach Malone and veteran Jeff Green called out their team defensively after Game 2 so expect a much better effort on that end of the court here. BET UNDER! |
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06-07-23 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 11.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 11.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - This total is just too much. We understand it based on the lack of experience of the Reds starter here and the fact that the Dodgers starter has struggled this season plus yesterday's game totaled 17 runs. However, it is simply too much especially when you take a closer look at the team and starting pitcher aspects and why this number is inflated. The Reds, prior to yesterday, had averaged just 3.7 runs scored in their last 6 games. The Dodgers, prior to yesterday's 9-8 loss in Cincinnati in Game 1 of this series, had scored an average of 4.5 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Reds are expected to start rookie Brandon Williamson here and the lefty has held opponents to a .215 batting average against in 2023 thus far. This should be a solid duel here in this one as the Dodgers are expected to start Noah Syndergaard this evening. The LA right-hander is off a tough start and has been rumored to have his starting spot on the line due to struggles this season. However, all the runs against him were with two outs each time in his most recent outing against the Nationals last week. Syndergaard pitched better than his line shows but gave up some bigger hits with 2-outs. Look for Syndergaard to bounce back here. He had allowed 16 hits in 15 innings in his 3 starts prior to that one. The fact is, with less than 2 outs he was unscored on in his last start. We think the savvy 8-year vet is going to step up his game here and give the Reds trouble and this large total gives us a lot of wiggle room here! Let’s take the Under in this one.
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06-06-23 | Royals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 131 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - With yesterday's 9 to 6 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 9-3 run over their past dozen games. This includes 4 straight wins. Also, 8 of the 9 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin! Kansas City certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 18-42 on the season and with 12 of their last 13 losses by 2 or more runs. The Royals enter this match-up having gone 6-27 in games against teams with a winning record this season! They are 5-11 against left-handed starters and face a tough one here as Jesus Luzardo expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.05 ERA so far this season, he had a 3.32 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here and he does have a 3.35 ERA at home this season. As for the expected Kansas City starter, Zack Greinke, he has been decent this season but is 0-10 the last two seasons combined in his road starts. Throughout his career, Greinke is known for struggling more on the road than at home and that has been the trend with him again this season. Also, going against Greinke here is the fact that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like KC that struggles at the plate plus ranks just ahead of Oakland in terms of having a league-worst bullpen. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a solid comeback price in the +130 money range with the Marlins. Lay it! |
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06-05-23 | Panthers +124 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
#45 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Panthers +120 over Vegas Golden Knights, Monday at 8 PM ET - If you watched Game 1 you know that there were some fortunate bounces of the puck that favored Vegas. The Golden Knights got some breaks and, overall, we liked what we saw from Florida in that one even though they came up short in game with a deceiving final score of 5-2 as it was certainly much closer than that score would lead you to believe. Florida is now in a strong play on position as they have been so strong off losses including 3-1 in this post-season. Dating back to the regular season, the Panthers went 6-2 last 8 times in the regular season games when on the road and coming off a loss in their prior game. This is a well-coached team with plenty of veteran personnel on its roster too. They will be ready to respond here and we don't expect so much "puck luck" for the Golden Knights in this one as they certainly had some good fortune in Game One. Note that Florida wanted to establish physicality in game one and they did but they took it a little too far and they know they will not win many games when allowing 7 power play opportunities. The Golden Knights converted 2 of them and the Panthers had 0 power plays goals in the game. Certainly this was a big difference in the game. 5 on 5 Florida played very well and Vegas also got some huge saves from goalie Adin Hill. Give him credit as he has been strong in this post-season in a big surprise after other goalies got hurt. However, why was he not the #1 goalie in Vegas before the injuries? Exactly and this is why we feel a breakdown could soon be forthcoming and things start to unravel. All of the above factors are leading to value here. Also, because the Panthers are, of course, on the road for this Game 2 revenge spot in this series we get a great price. Grab the small underdog comeback price with the road underdog here. |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
ASA NBA Top Play on 10* Miami Heat +8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - Game 1 went according to plan as the Nuggets dominated a tired Heat team and had the spread covered with 5-minutes to go in the 2nd quarter and never let the lead slip below double digits. We like Denver to win this series BUT we will grab the points in Game 2 given how Game 1 played out. The Heat lost by 11-points despite shooting just 41% overall and making 13 of 39 3-point attempts. They also attempted just 2 free throws the entire game. All of those numbers are extremely low based on what Miami has done this entire postseason. The Heat own the best 3PT% in the playoffs at .387%. They have been the 6th best overall shooting team at .468%. On average they have attempted 20 free throws per game, making on average 16.1. In Game 1 the Nuggets shot above expectations at 51% overall, made 30% of their 3’s (slightly lower than playoff average) and hit 16 of 20 FT’s. If Miami has an ‘average’ game by their playoff standards, they will keep this game within double digits. They now have extra days rest and time to get acclimated to the higher altitude of Denver. We are betting on Jimmy Butler being much better than his 13-points on 14-field goal attempts. We also expect Martin, Strus and Robinson to shoot much better from beyond the arc than they did in Game 1 when they were a combined 2 for 16. Yes, Denver has not lost at home in the postseason, but the Heat have also won 6 road games in the playoffs. This game will be much closer than the last. Grab the points. |
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06-04-23 | A's v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - With yesterday's dominant 12 to 1 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 6-2 run over their past 8 games. Oakland certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 12-48 on the season and with 38 of their 48 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this afternoon match-up having gone a putrid 1-24 in day games this season! They are 8-34 against right-handed starters and face a tough one here as Sandy Alcantara expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.93 ERA so far this season, he had a 2.28 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here. As for the expected Athletics starter, Paul Blackburn, he is returning from injury. Though his first start went okay, he took 81 pitches to complete 4 innings and he did struggle in his rehab starts before making that first MLB appearance of this season. Also going against Blackburn here is that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like Oakland that struggles at the plate plus has a league-worst bullpen. Oakland enters this game 4-13 in inter-league matchups. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Marlins. Lay it! |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 vs. Boston Celtics, Game 1 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - I was watching Game 7 of the Heat/Celtics the other night and when it became obvious that the Heat were going to win, I started immediately thinking about Game 1 of the Finals. I actually said to my wife, if the playoff sporadic Celtics were favored by 10-points at home in Game 2 of that series that suggests the Nuggets should be favored by 12 in Game 1 given the circumstances. The Heat have played a gauntlet of brutally tough games/series and now must travel to the higher altitude of Denver to face a Nuggets team that has been off 9-days. Eventually, everyone’s legs will go for the Heat as they are not that deep to begin with. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat “sacrifice” Game 1 to try and steal Game 2. Teams with at least 7 days of extra rest are 4-1 SU in Game 1’s. The Heat were the 4th worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season but have miraculously shot over 43% in their series against the Bucks and Celtics. Miami has the 23rd EFG% in the NBA at 53.2% while Denver has the best overall EFG% at 57%. Denver had the 13th best EFG% defense, Miami own’s the 23rd worst. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs with an average +/- of +12PPG. Denver was also a much better team defensively at home this season allowing just 1.107-points per possession (5th) during the regular season. Lastly, I typically don’t talk matchups, but the Nuggets have a decisive advantage with Nikola Jokic over anyone the Heat throw at him. Adebayo can’t match him in the post and can’t exploit him defensively on the perimeter. In fact, Joker is 10-2 SU lifetime versus Adebayo. Overall, the Nuggets have won 9 of the past 10 meetings over the last 5 seasons. We like Denver BIG in Game 1. |
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05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one. This total dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 in a number of books in early market activity which is giving us extra value. We get a lower total here because of George Kirby's long-term numbers and the fact these are two solid bullpens but one must also look at what these clubs, particularly the Yankees, have been doing offensively of late. The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to. The Yankees are red hot at the plate and have scored exactly 10 runs in 3 straight games. Also, New York's road games have seen them score an average of 6.1 runs last 10 games and they have won 6 straight and 8 of last 9 when away from home. The Yankees are hot and Kirby enters this one off a very rough home start in which he allowed 4 homers! New York has really been slugging the ball so don't be surprised if Kirby struggles again. He also was hit harder at home last year just as has been the case this season. As for Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, his ERA and batting average against numbers have both been worse when on the road compared to at home. Schmidt enters this one with a 5.58 ERA on the season and opponents hitting .301 against him. The Mariners, prior to being held to 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had scored an average of 5 runs per game in their last 9 games. Our computer math model shows a range of 9 to 10 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the 11 to 12 range. Over is the call in this one Wednesday night. |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | Top | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Miami Heat, Game 7 @ 7:30 PM ET - Pressure! All the pressure now sits squarely on the Miami Heat as they have blown a 3-0 lead in this series and could potentially be the first team ever to lose a playoff series in that scenario. Last time out the shooting for both teams was the storyline. Boston couldn’t make a 3-pointer as they shot just 20% from Deep. They did, however, shoot 63% on 2-pointers and made 29 of 34 FT’s. Miami on the other hand shot 47% from beyond the arc but hit just 30% from inside the line. The added value in the line is also significant in this elimination game. The three previous games between these two teams in Boston had you laying -8.5, -10 and -8.5 points. I’m betting the Celtics have another shooting game as they did in Game 5 at home when they won by 13-points. The C’s shot 41% from the 3-point line in that game and own the 6th best 3PT% in the NBA. Would we be surprised to see Miami struggle to shoot again? No! The Heat were a bad shooting team all season long ranking 26th in team FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston at home and predict a Celtic win by 15. |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210.5 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 6 Saturday 8:30 PM ET - These two teams just shot 51% against each other and still only managed 207 total points in the last game. The reason why was the slow deliberate pace by both teams with a combined 157 field goal attempts. The field goal attempts in the first two games were below league average with 166 attempts in Game 1 and 172 in Game 2. The NBA average for FGA per game this season was 176. In Games 3 & 4 they attempted 179 and 162. During the regular season the Heat owned the 9th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.135-points per possession. Boston was 3rd giving up 1.115PPP. In the Playoffs the Celtics are allowing 1.130PPP which is obviously very good, but Miami has been better yet allowing just 1.117PPP which is 4th best. Also, in the postseason both teams’ pace of play has slowed. Two big injuries will also have an impact on the total points scored by these teams. Malcom Brogdon has issues with his shooting arm and may not play. If he does how effective can he be shooting? The big loss for the Heat is Gabe Vincent who has been outstanding in the playoffs. Vincent is averaging 13.5PPG in this series and has provided Miami with another 3-point threat (11 of 22 from Deep vs. Boston) with Tyler Herro on the bench. Both defenses will play at a peak level in this game and expect both teams to favor a much slower tempo. Bet UNDER! |
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05-25-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on Miami Heat +8 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston may win this game but asking them to cover is too much. The Heat have clearly been the better team in this series overall and have largely outplayed Boston for the majority of the series. In the Celtics Game 4 win the Heat shot poorly at 44% overall and 25% from the 3-point line. The Heat had shot well in the previous 3 games by hitting over 52% from Deep in two of three games and over 46% in all three. Miami has the 2nd best average point differential in the NBA in the Playoffs at +4.7PPG which trails only the Nuggets at +8.3PPG. Miami is 5th in points allowed per possession in the postseason compared to the Celtics who rank 10th allowing 1.138PPP. Offensively the Celtics have a slight edge in the playoffs averaging 1.182-points per possession, but the Heat are right behind the at 1.170PPP. The Heat match up well with Boston which is why they’ve covered 5 of the last six meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Boston. We like the points here with Miami. |
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05-24-23 | Hurricanes +100 v. Panthers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
#15 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (-105) over Florida Panthers, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - The Panthers 1-0 win over Carolina Monday was their first shutout victory of the post-season and the first-ever playoff shutout for Sergei Bobrovsky in his career. The Panthers had only 2 home ice shutouts in the entirety of the regular season. Each time they lost their next game and those defeats were by identical 4-2 scores. All 3 wins in this series for Florida have been by 1 goal and the first two were OT victories. Carolina outshot Florida 32 to 17 in the Game 3 loss. A key player, Barkov, for the Panthers was knocked out of that game early and never returned. He could be back tonight but will not be 100%. The Hurricanes are a determined group with a determined hard-nosed head coach that knows how to get the best out of his players. This series has been tight all the way through and the Panthers are very fortunate to be up 3 games to 0 in this one. The Canes will not quit and have largely avoided losing streaks of more than 2 games this season. This is their first 3-gamer of the post-season and it is the perfect spot to back them for a bounce back. Carolina also won the shots on goal battle in Games 1 and 2 of this series and has had a 70 to 43 edge in shots on goal in games 2 and 3 combined. This has simply been a crazy series as it seems unfathomable that Florida could be up 3 to 0 when you see how this one has played out on the ice. The Hurricanes have to be happy with their level of play yet they have fallen just short of the victory in all 3 games. The determination level and relentlessness of the Canes will be off the charts in this one. Coach Rod Brind'Amour has had his team ready and is one of the best in the business when it comes to preparing his team in the toughest of situations. Down 0-3 but knowing they just need 1 win here and then this series could "turn on a dime", we have no doubt the Hurricanes will be getting some high quality shots and screened shots plus will take advantage of power play chances (likely to get more opportunities tonight), and the result will be a solid road win. Carolina Hurricanes Money Line is the play in this one! |
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05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 216 | Top | 116-99 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET Game 4 - All three games of this series have gone Over the total. That’s somewhat surprising considering they have been below the league average in field goal attempts in 2 of three games. But hot shooting by the Heat has been the driving factor. Miami is 26th in the NBA in shooting percentage at 46% and 27th in 3-point percentage at 34.4%. In this series they shot 54%, 46% and 57% in the three games. They have also shot over 52% in two of the three games from beyond the arc. Boston had one of the best defensive efficiency ratings in the regular season, but they are giving up 1.142-points per possession in the Playoffs. Off that embarrassing Game 3 blowout I’m betting the Celtics Stars Tatum and Brown will come out firing in this elimination game. The Over has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings. The O/U line is low again so grab the value with Over. |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA LAKERS -3 vs. Denver Nuggets – Game 4 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - We're betting there is enough pride left in the Lakers locker room to come out with a motivated effort here to avoid getting embarrassed and swept in the Playoffs. The Lakers have outplayed the Nuggets for a majority of the games but have fallen victim to big runs by the Nuggets, like the 13-0 run in the 4th quarter of last game. The key to this game is the line value. This line is where the Game 3 number should have been so now, we get to back a L.A. team at the proper number. The Lakers were 30-19 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of nearly +5PPG. They shoot 48.1% overall at home and hold foes to 45.2%. Denver has not been a great road team this season with a 22-25 SU road record and an average differential of minus -2.1PPG. The Nuggets defense on the road has been suspect this season as they allow opponents to make 49.4% of their field goal attempts and give up 115.1PPG. As long as LeBron and Anthony Davis show up tonight we should be in a good position to win with the Lakers. |
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05-21-23 | Stars +106 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
#9 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Stars +105 over Vegas Golden Knights, Sunday at 3 PM ET - If you watched Game 1 you know that there were some fortunate bounces of the puck that favored Vegas. The Golden Knights got some breaks and, overall, we liked what we saw from Dallas in that one even though they came up just short in the 4-3 OT loss. Dallas is now in a strong play on position as they have been so strong off a loss. 22-11 is the combined score of the 5 victories that the Stars have in this post-season when they enter a game off a loss. 18-9 is the combined score of the 4 victories that Dallas had following each of their last 4 regular season losses. We are now moving into the latter third of May and you have to go all the way back to mid-March to find the last time the Stars were dealt B2B losses. We like the Stars to play a very tight-checking game here and be a little more physical than they were in Game 1. The last 9 times they were off a loss they allowed an average of only 2 goals per game while they scored 4.4 goals per game. This is a well-coached team with plenty of veteran personnel on its roster too. They will be ready to respond here and we don't expect so much "puck luck" for the Golden Knights in this one as they certainly had some good fortune in Game One. A key goal also happened for Vegas in the 3rd period on a play when the Stars goalie got bowled over and had no chance on the play. All of these factors are leading to value here. Also, because the Stars are on the road for this Game 2 revenge spot we get a great price. Grab the small underdog price with the road underdog here |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Denver Nuggets @ LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET Game 3 - These two teams had an incredible shooting night in Game 1 and produced 258-total points between them. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. In Game 2 we got a game that was much more predictive of what these two teams really are. They combined for 211 total points on 171 field goal attempts. The Lakers came back to Earth with a 44% shooting night and 8 of 30 Game 3 from beyond the arc. Denver was close to their season averages of 44% overall and 37% from deep. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. If you paid close attention to Game 2 then you saw what we saw which was too very fatigued teams from the intensity and higher altitude in Denver. The Lakers defense at home in the postseason has been outstanding as they have held all of their opponents to 104 or less points in regulation time. This will be another low field goal attempt game and stay UNDER the total. |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -8.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 2 at 8:30 PM ET - Don’t be intimidated by the number in this one. When the Heat faced the Bucks they were dogs by 9-points and 13-points in two of the games in Milwaukee. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. In Game 1 the Heat caught fire (no pun intended) by hitting 54% of their FG attempts and 52% of their 3-point attempts (16 of 31). As we previously reported, that won’t continue in Game 2 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the league and the Heat are 27th in the league 3PT% at 34.4%. We like Boston at home off that loss and predict a Celtic win by 15. |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 2 - Everyone just watched these two teams produce 258 total points in Game 1 of this series. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. The Lakers defense just held the Warriors to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should make adjustments to limit Jokic and Murray from scoring 30+. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last eight. Don’t expect Anthony Davis to have a repeat performance of 40 points and it’s unlikely they get 40 combined from Reaves and Hachimura. |
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05-17-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 1 8:30 PM ET - The value in the number tells us to back the Celtics at home in the opener. In the two games in Milwaukee that Giannis played in the Bucks were favored by 9-points and 13-points. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. These two teams split their regular season meetings with the favorite covering 3 of the four. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston by double-digits in the opener. |
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05-17-23 | Royals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Padres have been slumping but they faced a tough road slate with 6 straight away games before this series started. As for the Royals, their 4 most recent wins (before yesterday's 5-4 victory over here at San Diego) came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics. The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season. Facing San Diego's ace Yu Darvish will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Padres will break out of their slump tonight. San Diego did win the first game of this series 4-0 and another big win should come here. Darvish ranked 7th in the N.L. in strike outs last season! He is piling up strikeouts again this season plus has allowed only 1 earned in 3 of his 4 home starts this season. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Carlos Hernandez (5.05 career ERA) but he will be more of an opener as he has been working out of the bullpen again this season and is unlikely to go more than 3 innings here. That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Hernandez. Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Padres lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 4.86 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB. Also, the Royals had lost 14 of last 18 road games before yesterday's rare win. Speaking of rare, the Royals have struggled to build any momentum this season with their longest winning streak being 2 games. Also, KC is 0-4 this year when off a 1-run win and they took yesterday's game by a 5-4 count. 26 of 31 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 85% of San Diego wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Padres on the run line in this one. |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 222.5 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 1 - With more money and tickets on the Over you would expect this line to go up, but it didn’t and one respected Sports Book is even carrying 222 on this game. That has us liking the Under even more coupled with our standard statistical projections. The Lakers just faced a Warriors team that was the fastest paced team in the NBA during the regular season AND was the 2nd highest in scoring and the series averaged 222.5PPG. Now the Lakers face a Nuggets team that was 23rd in pace of play a t98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. When the Nuggets have been at home in the Playoffs thus far they have stayed Under 223 total points in 4 of six games. The Lakers defense just held a Warriors team to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should be up for the challenge of slowing this Nuggets team down. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last seven. Our model projects 216 total points here. |
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05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 7 - We liked the Celtics to come out of the East before the Playoffs started and will back them here in this Game 7 over Philly. Examining the last game, the Celtics won despite a horrible game by Tatum. Jaylen Brown wasn’t great either with 17 points and 7 rebounds. In this situation it’s hard to back a Philadelphia team that will need a great James Harden, who has a penchant for not showing up in big games, to be just that…great. Embiid is obviously one of the best players in the game, but it will be hard for him to carry this team to the finish line. Boston had the 3rd best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers at home this season. Philly was 1st in DEFF on the road but 10th in OEFF away from home. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season and we don’t see them losing a third home game in this series to the 76ers. |
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05-12-23 | Royals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping but they faced a tough slate while Royals actually have won 4 of 5 but the wins came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics. The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season. Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight. Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season. Since that time, his ERA is 2.08 and he’s allowed just 20 hits in 30.1 innings of work while striking out 26! The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, in his 2 starts vs Kansas City in his career, Burnes has pitched 12 innings, allowed 6 hits and struck out 18. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Josh Taylor (6.55 ERA) but he could be more of an opener as he really has not been a starter much at any level in the minors nor at the MLB level. That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Taylor. Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Brewers lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 5.11 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB. Remember we mentioned above that Kansas City's recent wins have come against weaker foes and that certainly is worth noting because Kansas City is a horrible 6-23 against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Royals have lost 10 of last 14 road games and they were in action yesterday while the Brewers were resting courtesy of an off day yesterday. 23 of 27 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 70% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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05-12-23 | Knicks v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We were grateful for the Knicks win in the last game of this series, but the facts of the matter are the Heat have clearly been the better team overall. The oddmakers have obviously seen what we’ve seen as they’ve bumped this line higher than the previous two games in Miami. The home team has won 4 straight with a 3-1 ATS record. Going back further the host has won 7 of the last nine meetings. The last four wins by the home team have all come by 6+ points. New York was good away from home all season long but it’s obvious the Heat have “flipped a switch” in the postseason and are playing at another level. Miami is 32-15 SU at home on the season and have won 5 straight home playoff games. Even when you factor in the play in loss to the Hawks at home the Heat have an average +/- at home in the PO’s of +9PPG. The Heat have covered 7 of the last ten meetings with the Knicks on this floor and are also on a 4-0 ATS streak when coming off a loss. Miami is the tougher team and they finish this series tonight with a double-digit win over the Knicks. |
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05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 212 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 212 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - The five games in this series have finished with 234, 208, 216, 214 (in regulation) and 218 total points. The Celtics had scored 114 or more in each game, up until the last one when they managed just 103 points. Boston had a poor shooting night in Game 5 by hitting just 40% overall and 32% from deep. Boston shoots 47.5% as a team overall and 37.7% from the 3-point line. The one game in this series that has stayed below the Total, the 76ers had an exceptionally bad shooting night at 39% overall and 20% from the 3-point line. Those numbers are not indicative of the Sixes offense this season that owned the 6th best FG% in the league at 48.7% and was 1st in 3PT% at 38.7%. These two teams ranked 3rd and 2nd in offensive efficiency with Philly averaging 1.178-ponts per possession, Boston averaged 1.181PPP. Seven of the last ten meetings between these two teams has finished with more than 214 total points. Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finished with 228 total points being scored so getting to 213 for these two teams shouldn’t be a problem. |
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05-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 135 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
#22 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +130) over Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Golden Knights lost goalie Laurent Brossoit to injury in Game 3 of this series. Vegas then brought in Adin Hill and he was great in relief but the Knights' skaters really came out flying in that game and something seemed amiss with the Oilers all night long even though they were on home ice. That said, now a still-recovering Brossoit (he also had hip surgery recently) will be getting the start for Vegas or Hill will be making the first post-season start of his NHL career. There is a big difference between coming on in relief in a game in which your team also gets a big lead for you versus getting the start. Hill would be entering this game with a 0-0 score of course and having plenty of time to think about making his first-ever playoff start, etc. That is a much different "animal" per se and we know Edmonton is going to bring it on home ice here after the embarrassing Game 3 loss. We like the Oilers no matter who is in goal here as the Knights have the injured Brossoit, first P/O start Hill, or rusty Jonathan Quick as their choices here. The Oilers, when off a loss, are a perfect 7-0 the last 7. As for laying the 1.5 goals here, the Oilers win in this series was by a 5-1 final at Vegas and BOTH their home wins in this post-season (against the Kings) were by multi-goal margins - 10 to 5 aggregate on those two games. The Oilers, dating back to their red-hot close to the regular season as well, were 19-4 last 23 games before that Game 3 loss. This is bounce back time and we expect Edmonton to improve to 8-0 last 8 times when off a loss. Of course the Oilers are a huge money line favorite for a reason and, that being said, we see a lot of value with the puck line in this one. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Edmonton for a plus money return in this one is the value play here. |
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05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - We will go back to the well with the Knicks in this elimination Game 5. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, then in Game 4 the Heat pulled another stunning road upset of the Knicks by 8. The Knicks shot poorly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. In Game 4 the Knicks played well throughout most of the game until the 4th quarter when they shot just 33% for the quarter and gave up 7 offensive rebounds in the final stanza. New York was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA at 46.6 boards per game but have been out rebounded by 11 in the last two games. We expect that to change in this do-or-die situation at home and will back the small home favorite. New York is 13-6-1 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of 3-7-points. Miami as a dog in this same price range is 6-9 ATS. |