Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-09-22 | Tennessee v. Mississippi State +1.5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State +1.5 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as the favorite in this game so we’re taking the points with the home team. The Bulldogs are an impressive 12-1 SU at home this season where they shoot 50% as a team with an average winning margin of +16 PPG. They are a perfect 5-0 SU at home in SEC play while going 0-5 SU on the road for the largest home/road dichotomy in the league. They are coming off a road loss @ red hot Arkansas (8 straight wins) but played the Razors to the wire (down by 2 with 1:00 minute remaining) before losing. Tennessee is coming off a blowout road win over South Carolina (3rd lowest rated team in the SEC) but the Vols still have a losing road record at 3-4 SU. Their 3 road wins have come vs teams that are currently rated 80th or lower and they just starting forward Nkamhoua (9 PPG / 6 RPG) to a season ending ankle injury vs South Carolina over the weekend. UT’s overall defensive numbers are really high but since getting into SEC play they’ve fallen off drastically. In SEC games only the Vols defense ranks 11th in eFG% allowed, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 10th in 2-point % allowed. That’s alarming for a team that hangs their hat on defense. MSU ranks 3rd in the SEC in offensive efficiency so they should have plenty of success in this one. Tennessee has just 2 wins in conference play vs top 8 in the league (LSU & Florida both at home), all other wins come vs bottom of the league. They should not be favored in this one and we side with the home dog. |
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02-08-22 | Illinois +6 v. Purdue | 68-84 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
#663 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +6 over Purdue, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Tough to lay this many points right now vs a full strength Illinois team that is playing lights out. We faded the Illini on Saturday as a road favorite @ Indiana in a perfect spot for a letdown vs a rested Hoosier team coming in with a week off. Illinois had just beaten Wisconsin by 13 points to move into 1st place in the conference and they had this huge game on deck. Didn’t matter they handled IU by a final score of 74-57 giving the Hoosiers just their 2nd home loss of the season. We were dead wrong on that one. Now we’re getting a full 6 points with Illinois and they are in revenge mode after losing in double OT at home to the Boilers. We’ll put an asterisk by that loss as Illini All American center Kofi Cockburn suffered a concussion in that game (sat out the next 2 games) and had his worst outing of the season with 10 points and 5 rebounds in just 22 minutes before fouling out. Purdue had a huge advantage from the FT line making 26 of 32 with Illinois making 12 of 15 yet this game still went to 2 overtimes. Purdue has won 5 straight since their loss @ Indiana but their last 2 home games have gone to the wire beating OSU by 3 on a last second 3 pointer and then topping Michigan by 6 over the weekend. The Boilers like to bully teams inside on the boards with their size but Illinois matches up very well in that regard with Cockburn. The Illini are the #1 defense in the Big 10 efficiency wise along with eFG% allowed. They also are a very good perimeter defensive team which will be problems for Purdue as they rely quite heavily on the 3 point shot. The Illini have won 10 of their last 12 games with their only losses coming when Cockburn was limited due to a concussion (vs Purdue) or didn’t play in the game. We anticipate this game being close throughout and getting this many points with the Illini is a take for us. |
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02-08-22 | Marquette +7 v. Connecticut | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
#605 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +7 over UConn, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Marquette is no doubt the hottest team in the Big East winning 8 of their last 9 with their only loss during that stretch by just 2 points @ Providence who is 10-1 in the Big East and 20-2 overall. The Golden Eagles started this run with a massacre of that same Providence team winning by 30+ points at home giving the Friars their only conference loss this season. Not only did they top the Friars, but Marquette has also beaten Villanova (twice), Seton Hall (twice), and Xavier during this run. We feel UConn is a bit overvalued right now. Half of their Big East wins have been by 8 points or less and their 3 other conference wins were vs Butler (twice) and Georgetown, 2 worst teams in the league. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they only team they’ve beaten that ranks in the top half of the conference is this Marquette team. They beat the Golden Eagles by 8 on the road when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak back in December. Marquette also played that game without one of their top players, Daryl Morsell (13.5 PPG), who is also their top perimeter defender. Even with Morsell out and Marquette in a bit of a slump in mid December, this was still a very close game throughout. The Eagles are now playing at another level as we discussed. UConn is a poor 3-point defensive team (9th in the Big East) while Marquette is the #1 three point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% in league play. The Eagles have 4 regulars that shoot at least 35% from deep. Marquette is also the #1 defense in conference play in terms of efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3-point % allowed. We give them a great shot to win here and getting 6 points gives us a great cushion. |
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02-07-22 | Kansas v. Texas +1 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -1 over Kansas, Monday at 9 PM ET - Any time a top 10 rated team is an underdog it makes us take a look. Most will automatically take the top rated dog but we often look at the favored team depending on the match up. There is a reason that team is favored vs a highly ranked opponent. Texas is very talented team that plays great defense (9th nationally in defensive efficiency & #1 in the country allowing 55 PPG) and they like to take fast paced teams out of their comfort zone by slowing the pace. That’s not a good match up for Kansas who loves to get up and down the court but will be locked into a half court game here with the Horns (347th in tempo). The team most comparable to the Longhorns in the Big 12 would be Texas Tech. The Red Raiders also play great defense yet like a slow tempo game. Tech gave Kansas all kinds of problems in their 2 meetings beating the Jayhawks by 8 at home and losing on the road in double OT. Texas has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that run coming @ Texas Tech. They just walloped a good Iowa State team by 22 points here on Saturday. They are 14-1 at home with a point margin of +21 per game. They catch Kansas off a huge home win over Baylor on Saturday and this will be the first time this season the Jayhawks are facing one of the top 4 teams in the Big 12 on the road. Two of KU’s conference road games were down to the wire where they came from a 2nd half deficit to top KSU and Oklahoma each by just 3 points – both teams ranked far lower than Texas. The Horns match up very well here with KU as they have length and defend the interior very well which is where the Jayhawks like to operate. Texas gets the win at home. |
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02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra -7.5 | 71-73 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
#872 ASA PLAY ON 8* Hofstra -7.5 over UNC Wilmington, Monday at 5 PM ET - UNCW sits on top of the Colonial with a 7-1 conference record. They have been one of the luckiest teams in the nation and we expect that to start to bite them, especially on the road. They have won 13 of their last 14 games and they’ve trailed by double digits in 10 of those 14 games. One of those come from behind wins came at home vs this Hofstra team just 10 days ago. The Seahawks trailed by as much as 15 in that game and didn’t take their first lead until the 2nd half. They led for less than 10 minutes in the game yet won by 6. Hofstra was favored by 4 in that road game and now we’re getting them only a few points higher at home. Hofstra now gets a shot a quick revenge here at home where they have been outstanding. The Pride are 8-1 at home winning by an average score of 85-70 shooting over 50% from the field and 37% from 3. They’ve also played the much tougher schedule facing 7 top 100 teams on the season to just 1 top 100 team for UNCW. Hofstra is actually the 2nd highest rated team that Wilmington will have played this season only behind Towson. Hofstra dominated the boards in their meeting 10 days ago (+13) but shot just 16% from beyond the arc yet the game still went to the wire. UNC Wilmington also sits in a brutal scheduling spot playing their 3rd road game 5 days having traveled Elon (North Carolina), William & Mary (Virginia) and now Hofstra (New York). The Pride, on the other hand, are playing their 3rd straight home game. There is a reason the team that sits in 3rd place in the CAA is favored by 7.5 vs the team that is in 1st place. Lay it with Hofstra. |
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02-06-22 | Nevada v. San Diego State -12.5 | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -12 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - SDSU has been money coming off a loss this season. They’ve also been money at home and we get both here. The Aztecs lost 53-52 @ Colorado State on Friday after making a furious comeback late. They were down 12 with just over 2 minutes remaining and took the lead with 14 seconds remaining at CSU, a very tough place to play. Now they are back home where they are 10-1 on the season with a point differential of +14 per game. In conference play their 3 home wins have come by margins of 30, 25, and 25 points and two of those were bounce back games off a loss. Nevada will be on the road for their 3rd game in just 6 days. The Wolfpack lost Tuesday @ UNLV by 11, Friday @ Fresno by 17 and they are now back at it on the road less than 48 hours later. They are just 1-6 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Air Force, the 2nd lowest rated team in the Mountain West. Nevada has been without 2 of their top players, Sherfield and Washington, the last few games due to injury and there is a good chance they won’t be back here. Their offense has been brutal during their current 4 game losing streak scoring 66, 49, 58, and 56 points in those games. We don’t anticipate it getting any better here facing a San Diego State defense that ranks 2nd nationally in efficiency and 4th in eFG% allowed. The Aztecs have not allowed a team to score more than 55 points in any of their conference home games. Offensively they’ve scored at least 72 points in 4 of their last 5 home games and most likely won’t need to get to that number to cover this game. We like San Diego State to roll up a big win. |
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02-05-22 | Oregon State v. Colorado -9 | Top | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado -9 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - CU is coming off a home loss and we really like this spot for the Buffs. They lost here vs a red hot Oregon team (won 8 of last 9) on Thursday night and this becomes a must win with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. The Buffs are 5-7 in league play but they’ve played the toughest strength of schedule in Pac 12 play to date. They do have 4 homes losses this year but they are vs the 3 of the 4 highest rated teams in the conference (UCLA, USC, Oregon) along with Tennessee who is one of the best teams in the country. Oregon State is rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. They are 3-16 overall on the season and just 1-8 in conference play. Their wins this year have come vs Portland State (274th ranked team), Nicholls State (217th ranked team), and Utah (2-11 record in the Pac 12 ahead of only Oregon St). On the road this team is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS. They lost @ Utah who is 2-11 in the conference by 25 points on Thursday night. The Beavers are getting outscored by an average of 14 PPG on the road and shooting only 39%. On top of all that, this is the toughest back to back in the conference and has been known as such for a long time. Playing in altitude @ Utah followed up by playing in altitude again @ Colorado 2 days later is brutal. OSU has the worst defensive efficiency in Pac 12 play this season and they are also last in eFG% defense. And they foul a lot which is good for Colorado who shoots 74% from the FT line as a team. 7 of OSU’s 8 conference losses have come by double digits and this has the makings of a blow out. Take the Buffs at home. |
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02-05-22 | Illinois v. Indiana -1 | 74-57 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
#606 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana -1 over Illinois, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is a huge home game for the Hoosiers who are currently safely in the Big Dance, however with a number of really tough road games coming up this month (@ Mich State, @ Purdue, @ Ohio St) they need to pick up all the resume’ building wins they can. They are catching Illinois is a perfect spot for an update and the Illini just beat Wisconsin at home on Wednesday to move into 1st place in the Big 10. Indiana has been off since last Saturday so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and prepare for this one. The Hoosiers defense which is ranked #1 in the Big 10 in efficiency, matches up very well with this Illini offense. On Wednesday Illinois killed Wisconsin inside with Kofi Coburn 37 points in 16 of 19 shooting. That’ll be much tougher here vs an Indiana team that ranks 5th nationally defending inside the arc allowing opponents to make only 41% of their 2 point shots. That means the Illini will most likely have to be on from beyond the arc to have a shot here and we can’t anticipate that from a team that ranks 9th in the Big 10 (conference play) hitting just 33.8% of their 3’s. The Illini have played the easiest Big 10 road schedule to date. Their last 4 conference road games have come vs Minnesota, Northwestern, Maryland, and Nebraska – the 4 teams that sit at the bottom of the Big 10 standings all with 3-8 records or worse. Indiana sits with a near perfect 13-1 SU record at home with their only loss coming vs Michigan and that was a definite letdown spot just 3 days after the Hoosiers knocked off Purdue here at home. They’ll be more than ready for this home game after blowing a 2nd half lead here last year vs Illinois and losing in OT. Since the start of the 2018 season Indiana has been a home dog 10 times and covered 70% of those games (7). Indiana gets the home win. |
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02-04-22 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 57-58 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Diego State, Friday at 9 PM ET - CSU was 16-1 entering last weekend and they proceeded to lose 2 straight vs UNLV and in OT @ Wyoming. We like them to bounce back at home in Moby Arena where they have won 27 of their last 30 games! It can be tough for teams to come into high altitude and play well which is one of the many reasons that CSU has such a strong home court. San Diego State attempted was in a similar situation last week traveling to play Utah State in altitude and they lost by 18. SDSU then went home and blasted New Mexico so they are coming off a win. The Rams are fantastic offensive team ranking 18th in offensive efficiency nationally, 7th in eFG%, 18th in 3-point %, and 12th in 2-point %. They also make 79% of their free throws. San Diego State really struggles on offense at times. Especially on the road where they are averaging just 59 PPG on 37% shooting. They have played just 4 true road games and they are 1-3 SU in those games. This is a big time revenger for CSU after losing by 30 @ San Diego State one month ago. The normally sharp shooting Rams hit just 28% of their shots in that game and only 15% of their 3’s. SDSU is very good defensively but we look for a much better offensive performance from Colorado State who averages 83 PPG at home while shooting 52% overall and 40% from deep. The Aztecs will have trouble keeping up offensively here and we side with Colorado State to win and cover this short number at home. |
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02-03-22 | Washington v. California -2 | Top | 84-63 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California -2 over Washington, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Cal has lost 8 straight games and now they are a favorite in this one. We actually have the Bears power rated as a 4.5 points favorite here so we like the value with the team coming off a big stretch of losses. They have a misleading 2-9 record in Pac 12 play as over half of those losses (5) have come vs the top 3 teams in the conference (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). They have lost 3 straight home games, however those were again vs the top teams in the Pac 12 (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). Prior to that the Bears had won 9 straight home games. Washington is 6-3 in conference play but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in league play having played Arizona just once and they have not faced USC or UCLA. The Huskies do have 2 conference road wins but those came vs Oregon State and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Their other 3 conference road games resulted in losses of 28, 16, and 14 points. UW just struggled big time with Utah at home over the weekend winning in double OT. At this number the oddsmakers are pretty much asking Washington to win on the road and they simply don’t shoot the ball well enough to be trusted here. They rank 312th or lower nationally in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. This has been a home team series with the host winning 9 of the last 10 outright and covering 7 in a row. Cal views this match up as a great chance to end their losing streak and they’ll bring a great effort at home tonight. Lay the small number. |
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02-02-22 | Drake v. Indiana State +4 | 85-67 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
#684 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana State +4 over Drake, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game for the road favorite. Drake is in a prime letdown spot here as they are coming off a huge home win vs Loyola over the weekend and they have a game vs arch rival Northern Iowa on deck. ISU has lost 5 of their last but they’ve been very competitive with only 1 of those losses coming by more than 8 points (@ Bradley on Sunday – we were on the Braves!). Their win during that stretch was at home vs Missouri State who is rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC behind Loyola. ISU has played the toughest schedule in the league have already faced Loyola twice (ISU led Loyola for most of the game at home and lost), Bradley twice (won one and lost one), Missouri State (ISU won), Northern Iowa (ISU lost in OT), and Southern Illinois – all of the top teams in the conference. The Sycamores score points from beyond the arc than any other team in the conference and they shoot it very well from deep at home (almost 38%). That is Drake’s weak point on defense as they rank 8th in the MVC defending the arc. The Bulldogs also foul more than any team in the league so we expect Indiana State to be at the line a lot in this game where they hit 77% in conference play. Drake was the biggest money maker in college basketball last season with a ridiculous 20-5 ATS record during the regular season. Because of that, they have officially been overvalued this season with a 5-14 ATS record and they have covered just ONE of their last 10 road games. We like ISU to pull the upset here. |
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02-02-22 | Purdue v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 88-73 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
#672 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Minnesota +10.5 over Purdue, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This line is off. Our power ratings have Purdue -8.5. For comparison’s sake, Minnesota was just +11 @ Wisconsin on Sunday and now they are getting basically the same number at home vs Purdue. The Boilers are in a tough spot coming off an important 81-78 home win vs Ohio State on Sunday. They hit a tough 3-point shot at the buzzer to get that win. Purdue plays another important game at home on Saturday vs Michigan. In the meantime they are @ Minnesota who sits at 2-7 in Big 10 play and this sets up as a perfect spot for a Boilermaker letdown. They have played just 5 true road games on the year and they have a 3-2 record in those games with none of their wins coming by more than 10 points (losses @ Rutgers and @ Indiana). They average 84 PPG overall this season but that drops by 7 points when they have played on the road. Purdue’s road point margin is just +4 per game. The Gophers are finally back to full strength after their Covid slow down. They were missing key players on and off over the last few weeks but had everyone back for the first time in awhile in their game @ Wisconsin on Saturday, including big man Eric Curry who hadn’t played since January 12th. They gave the Badgers all they could handle in a 66-60 loss – game was tied 60-60 with 2:20 remaining. Minnesota is a bit undervalued in our opinion and they’ve been a very competitive team despite their 7 losses. Only 1 of those losses came by more than 13 points. Their average point margin in Big 10 play is -6.5 points per game and we think they keep this one close. |
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02-02-22 | St. Louis v. George Mason +2 | Top | 92-90 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* George Mason +2 over St Louis, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on George Mason one week ago today as a home dog vs St Bonnies and picked up a nice win with the Colonials coming out on top 75-66. We’re getting the underrated GM team at home as a dog again and we’re jumping on them vs St Louis. They are playing really good basketball right now winning 7 of their last 9 games with their lone losses coming by 1 point @ George Washington, a game Mason played without their leading scorer Oduro, and @ Kansas by just 9 points. GM is a very good shooting team ranking 14th nationally in eFG% and 15th in 2-point FG%. They are tough to guard with 4 players averaging double digit points including 3 key transfers from Colorado, Tennessee, and Morehead State. St Louis is 5-2 in A10 play but they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the conference. The Billikens have played ONE team on the road that ranks in the top 7 in the conference and that was a loss @ Dayton. SLU has historically struggled on the road with a 2-3 record this season and they are 13-28 in conference road games under head coach Travis Ford. They are coming off a rare road win on Saturday vs Duquesne, one of the two worst teams in the conference, and they are now on the road for the 2nd straight game. George Mason is 8-1 at home this season with a +13 PPG margin and they are also 6-1 ATS as a dog this season. We like the Colonials to get it done again at home vs SLU. |
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02-01-22 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -7.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -8 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bad spot and bad match up for South Carolina. They are catching MSU coming off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the nation. The Bulldogs lost @ Kentucky last Tuesday and took the Cats to OT on the road. Then they traveled to Texas Tech and they were out of gas both physically and emotionally after their Kentucky loss. Noticed it very early in the game and Tech rolled up an easy win. Now back at home where MSU is 4-0 in SEC play (11-1 overall) winning by an average of 12.5 points per game in league play. They have a +16 points per game margin in all 12 home games with 9 of their 11 wins coming by double digits. South Carolina is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after upsetting Texas A&M on Saturday. In SEC play the Gamecocks have a points per possession margin of -0.4 and MSU is +0.5 in that category. SC ranks 13th in the SEC (league games) in offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG%, and 13th in TO margin where they cough it up a whopping 23% of the time. They are also a poor defensive rebounding team (308th nationally) and MSU is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. Those 2 things alone (TO’s and rebounding) should lead to a bunch of extra possessions for the home team. Since South Carolina is a poor shooting team, they rely on their defense to create TO’s which turn into easy baskets. That’ll be tough here vs the Bulldogs who are #1 in the conference in TO rate giving it away just 16% of the time. The Gamecocks are aggressive defensively thus they foul A LOT. They foul more than any other team in the conference and their opponents % of points from the FT line is nearly 25% which is the 7th most in the entire nation. MSU is a solid FT shooting team at 72% while South Carolina has hit just 59% of their FT’s in conference play. Mississippi State by double digits. |
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01-31-22 | TCU v. Oklahoma UNDER 128 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
#897/898 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 128 Points – Oklahoma vs TCU, Monday at 9 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago and totaled just 117 points and that was including OVERTIME! At the end of regulation the score was 50-50. Both teams play a slow tempo and their defenses are superior to their offenses. They both rank inside the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency and TCU is the #1 defense in the conference in Big 12 games. Both turn the ball over A LOT which wastes offensive possessions. In their first meeting OU had 20 turnovers and TCU had 19 which helped contribute to the low scoring game. Neither takes many 3-point shots (7th and 9th in the conference in % of points scored from deep) and neither is all that great at hitting them when they do take them (8th & 9th in 3 point % in league play, both under 30%). TCU doesn’t get to the FT line very often and when they do they are one of the worst at converting at the stripe (65% overall and just 58% in conference play). On the other end of the court, we don’t expect Oklahoma to get many looks from the FT line as TCU is very good at not fouling with just 13% of opponents points coming from the stripe (best in the Big 12). Both teams are coming off higher scoring games vs fast paced, high scoring teams, which sets this one up nicely (TCU vs LSU and Oklahoma vs Auburn). This will be a grinder and we like the UNDER. |
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01-30-22 | Indiana State v. Bradley -7.5 | Top | 52-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
#844 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Bradley -7.5 over Indiana State, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Bradley is one of the hottest teams in the MVC winning 5 of their last 6. Their only loss during that stretch was @ Illinois State, a game Bradley led by 20 points late in the first half. Prior to this 6 game stretch, the Braves faced the 2 best teams in the conference, Loyola & Missouri State, and played very well. They lost those games by 2 points vs Mizzou State and in OT @ Loyola, a game they led by 16 in the 2nd half. So this team has been playing outstanding basketball over their last 7 games. Prior to that, they took on this Indiana State team on the road and lost by 5. The Braves were favored by -3.5 on the road in that one and now we’re getting them at -7 (as of this writing) so value on Bradley. In that 5 points loss the more physical Braves dominated the glass (+13) including 14 offensive rebounds. That led to 13 more FG attempts but they simply shot poorly in the loss. We expect them to handle ISU on the glass again here and if they shoot close to the 47% they average at home this should be an easy win. Indiana State is one of the youngest teams in the nation (3 freshmen starting) so it’s understandable why they are just 1-6 SU on the road this season. The Sycamores are also coming off a huge upset at home beating Missouri State earlier this week. They caught Mizzou St off a huge win of their own as they beat Loyola last weekend so it was definitely a letdown spot for the Bears. We like the red hot Braves in this revenge spot. |
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01-29-22 | Middle Tennessee v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 93-85 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky -5 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - This is a huge home game for WKY. They are 2-5 on conference play and have lost 4 straight games but they are much better than their record. The Hilltoppers have played one of the toughest schedules in CUSA play so far having already faced the 3 highest rated teams in the league (UAB, North Texas, and La Tech). They were very competitive in all 3 of those losses getting topped by 1, 3, and 5 points. The most recent coming at home on Wednesday vs UAB the best team in the conference. WKY lost that game 68-65 and made only 4 out of 17 three pointers (24%) but still had the game tied with under 10 seconds to go when UAB made a 3 at the buzzer. MTSU, on the other hand, has played the easiest schedule in CUSA play and they have a 4-2 record. Their last 3 games were vs FIU, Southern Miss, and Marshall, 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the league. They struggled big time @ Marshall (0-7 CUSA record) on Thursday night squeaking by with a 2 point win. The Blue Raiders trailed for most of the game but made 2 FT’s in the final seconds to win. MTSU was 0-6 SU on the road entering that game vs Marshall and they are now playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. They are a very poor 3-point shooting game (330th nationally) and they rely on getting to the FT line more than most teams. Problem here is Western Kentucky fouls as little as anyone in the nation allowing just 10.8% of opponents points to come from the stripe (lowest percentage in the country). The Hilltoppers are the much better offensive team ranking 3rd in CUSA (conference games) in eFG%, 3rd in 3 point %, and 4th in 2 point %. The are also the much bigger team, the more experience team, and they create bunches of TO’s (best in CUSA) which will make it difficult for an MTSU team that turns the ball over a lot. WKY is the better team despite their CUSA record and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot. We’ll lay it. |
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01-28-22 | Rhode Island +6.5 v. Dayton | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
#877 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +6.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7 PM ET - We were on URI earlier this week vs Richmond and came up short as they lost 70-63. It was a game the Rams led by 15 in the 2nd half but were outscored 15-1 in the final 5:45 as URI did not make a single shot during that stretch. It was a game they should have won and they blew it. Dayton also played on Tuesday and squeaked by Fordham the 4th lowest rated team in the A10. Final score was 68-61 and Fordham played without their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer in that game . Not overly impressive for Dayton. The Flyers are expected to have some ups and downs as they are the YOUNGEST team in college basketball. They start 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore and their first 3 players off the bench are also freshmen. As you would expect with a very young team, Dayton turns the ball over A LOT ranking 324th nationally in that category. URI is very good at creating turnovers defensively – 4th best in the conference – so this isn’t a great match up for Dayton when it comes to that. The Flyers also score most of their points from inside the arc (55% which is 31st most in the country) and that is the Rams strength on defense as they limit opponents to just 43% shooting from 2 point range – 9th best in the nation. Rhode Island has been a solid road team going 3-3 so far with losses @ Providence (one of the top teams in the Big East), @ Davidson by 4 (top rated team in the A10) and @ Florida Gulf Coast by 1. They are one of the better teams in the nation defensively (13th nationally in eFG% defense & allowing just 63 PPG). They are set up very well to cover as a dog and we think they have a great shot to win this one. Take the points. |
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01-27-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Southern Illinois +6.5 | Top | 44-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Southern Illinois +6.5 over Loyola Chicago, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Loyola and the Ramblers won 59-47. The game was much closer than that with Loyola leading by just 3 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Ramblers went on an 11-2 run in the final 3 minutes to win by 12. Southern Illinois shot terribly (33%) and made 5 fewer FT’s and still were in the game until the final few minutes on the road. SIU is better than their 10-10 record (3-5 in conference play). They have played the 3rd toughest schedule in league play and 7 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less. Loyola has played the easiest schedule in league play and their 2 road wins in the MVC have come @ Evansville (last place in the conference) and Indiana State (2nd to last place in the conference). The Ramblers other 5 league games have all come at home. SIU is 3-1-1 ATS this year as a dog in MVC games and 6-3 ATS overall getting points. Their overall numbers at home (PPG, FG%, and 3 point %) are all much better than on the road as to be expected. We can expect Loyola to be in a letdown spot here after just beating Southern Illinois and with a huge game vs Drake, the team that sits in 2nd place behind them, on deck. Take the points. |
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01-26-22 | San Diego State v. Utah State +1.5 | Top | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State +1.5 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Utah State is in must win mode after starting MWC play with a 1-5 record. USU has played an extremely tough schedule this season (41st SOS) and 6 of their 9 losses have come by 5 points or less. They have an SOS of #2 in conference games and they have lost 4 in a row all by 7 points or less and their 2 home games during that stretch came by 2 vs Wyoming (4-1 conference record) and by 3 vs Boise State (7-0 conference record). The Aggies are much better than their 10-9 record and they are the only team in the Mountain West that ranks in the top 80 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This team was 20-9 last year and lost to Texas Tech in the first round of the NCAA tournament. They really need a win here and they are rested and getting healthy after a full week off. They catch San Diego State playing their 3rd game in 5 days. A very quick turnaround for the Aztecs after beating UNLV on Monday night. SDSU hasn’t played a road game since January 1st and their offense really struggles at times to say the least. On Saturday they scored only 37 points in a home loss to Boise. In road games they are averaging just 60 PPG while shooting 37% from the field and only 20% from beyond the arc. The Aztecs are very good defensively but you need to score some points to cover games on the road, especially as a favorite, and they simply don’t do that. These two conference rivals met 3 times last year and Utah State won 2 of those games. USU has been favored in every home game this year, including vs Boise last week who is undefeated in conference play. We like the value of the home dog here and we have Utah State winning this one. |
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01-25-22 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 132.5 | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
#617/618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132.5 Points – Maryland vs Rutgers, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - These 2 met just 10 days ago and tallied 129 points with the final score Rutgers 70-59. They scored a bunch of points late as they had just 112 total points with 2:30 remaining in the game. If we can avoid a late flurry in this one we should be fine. Neither offense is great ranking 11th and 13th in the Big 10 in scoring. They rank 230th and 236th in offensive eFG%. Rutgers has shot ridiculously well from 3 point land in Big 10 play hitting 41% which would rank them 2nd in the country if they had shot that well the entire season. The fact is they shoot 34% from deep on the season (134th) and we can expect a regression to the mean. Defense is the strength of both of these teams with each ranking inside the top 75 in the country in adjusted efficiency. We really like the fact that these 2 rank 14th and 13th in Big 10 play at opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line. They simply don’t foul very much. Lastly, neither is an up tempo type team with Rutgers sits 12th in the league in tempo (conference play) and Maryland ranks 9th. Maryland showed some momentum defensively over the weekend holding a very good Illinois team to just 0.98 points per possession (Illini average 1.16 PPP on the season). Rutgers had one of their worst defensive performances allowing Minnesota to average 1.24 PPP and 54% shooting. Knights coach Pikiell was very upset with his team’s defensive effort and we can expect a very good outing on that end of the court tonight. Under is the play. |
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01-25-22 | Richmond v. Rhode Island -124 | 70-63 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
#604 ASA PLAY ON 8* Rhode Island -124 over Richmond, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Love this spot for URI. The Rams are coming off their worst loss of the year blowing a big lead vs George Washington, one of the worst teams in the Atlantic 10. The 2 point home loss to the Colonials was their first setback at home this year (8-1 home record). The Rams only other loss in conference play was at Davidson (#1 team in the conference) by 4 points. Richmond is playing their 3rd straight road game and they are coming off back to back road wins vs Fordham and LaSalle, two of the lowest rated teams in the A10. Now they take a big step up in competition vs one of the best defensive teams in the nation. URI is the 7th best team in the nation when it comes to FG% allowed (37%) and they have given up an average of just 62 PPG. The protect the rim as well as any team in the nation with a 20.4% block percentage which is 2nd to only Auburn. Richmond will have to shoot extremely well from deep to have a shot here but the Spiders have made only 28% of their 3’s in league play. URI has struggled shooting the ball the last few games but that should change here vs a Richmond team that is weak on the defensive end ranking 13th in the conference in eFG% allowed and 14th (last) in 3 point % allowed. They also allowed conference opponents to make nearly 51% of their shots inside the arc and Rhode Island has a solid height advantage and is #1 I the A10 in points scored from 2point land. URI gets the home cover. |
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01-24-22 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -6 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Illinois -6 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - South Dakota sits ahead of WIU in the Summit standings with a 4-3 record (WIU 3-4) but WIU is the better team by our metrics. South Dakota has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (348th) and they have played the easiest schedule so far in the Summit League (10th). They still have 3 conference losses despite that. They may look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but those wins have come vs the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference with all 3 rank below 267th nationally. They Coyotes have struggled on the road with a 2-5 SU record and their only wins away from home came @ North Dakota who is 4-14 on the season and 0-5 in conference play and @ St Thomas who is 8-10 overall and 2-4 in league play. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 this season and they are 0-4 SU vs teams ranked higher than 200. WIU is coming off a home loss vs the top team in the conference, South Dakota State. They will be hungry for a win here as their 2 home games in conference play (both losses) have come vs the top 2 teams in the league. They are 6-0 in their other home games this season. Offensively they average 80 PPG and an even better 85 PPG at home. They should have success in this one vs a South Dakota defense that ranks 308th nationally in eFG% defense and 353rd in 3-point defense (out of 358). The Coyotes were just on the road in Minnesota on Saturday (St Thomas) and now they are in Illinois just 2 days later to play this make up game that was originally scheduled for last week. WIU has been at home since January 15th. Tough spot for the road team. Lay it. |
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01-23-22 | Xavier v. Marquette +2 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2 over Xavier, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Don’t look now but Marquette just might be the hottest team in the Big East. The Golden Eagles have now won 5 straight games including wins @ Villanova earlier this week and home wins vs Seton Hall and Providence – 3 of the top teams in the conference. They are catching Xavier in a tough spot playing their 2nd straight road game with the stomach flu running through the team. The Musketeers topped DePaul 68-67 on the road Wednesday but it was a struggle. They trailed for much of the game and actually took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 2:00 minutes remaining. DePaul played that game without their leading scorer Freeman-Liberty (21 PPG) so an unimpressive effort from Xavier. They had 2 key players under the weather for that game and now another starter (Freemantle) is battling the flu. They may or may not play but none are 100%. These 2 met back on December 18th when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and simply not playing well. Xavier won the game 80-71 and that margin came at the FT line where the Musketeers attempted 35 FTS’s (made 21) to just 12 attempts for the Eagles (made 8). Marquette has been scorching from deep hitting at least 43% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 5 games and Xavier has struggled guarding the 3 their last few games allowing 43% and 38% vs Creighton and DePaul. This sets up very nicely for the Golden Eagles to win at home. |
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01-22-22 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL -2.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Huge revenge game for Miami from just 11 days ago. Miami led on the road @ FSU for a majority of the game and lost 65-64 when the Canes (with a 1 point lead) were called for a foul with 1 second left on the clock. FSU hit both FT’s and won by a point. That loss is the Canes only setback in their last 11 games. This team is playing very well. They beat Duke on the road and just walloped UNC at home by 28 points all within the last 2 weeks. FSU is also on a bit of a roll winning 5 straight but 4 of those wins came at home. For the season the Noles are just 2-4 SU in road games. Dating back to last season FSU has covered just 1 of their last 9 road games. They are averaging just 66 PPG and shooting only 41% from the field in their 6 road games this season. Miami is 9-1 at home this season averaging 84 PPG and hitting nearly 50% of their shots. We like the red hot Canes to get their quick revenge at home in this one. |
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01-21-22 | Evansville v. Illinois State -7.5 | Top | 56-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -7 over Evansville, Friday at 7 PM ET - We look for ISU to play very well at home after playing very poorly in their worst loss of the year @ Missouri State. Prior to that blowout loss, the Redbirds, who are 9-9 on the season, had 5 losses by 6 points or less or in OT. That included tight games @ top 10 Wisconsin (lost by 4) and vs a very solid St Louis team on a neutral court (lost by 6). ISU has had a rough stretch of games over the last 30 days with 4 road games and just 1 home game. In that 1 home game they topped Bradley by 9 points. Tonight they take on an Evansville team that is 0-5 in the MVC and just 4-12 on the season. The Aces wins have come vs DePauw (non Division 1), IUPUI (ranked 358th out of 358 teams), Eastern Illinois (ranked 354th) and Tennessee Tech (ranked 273rd). They are 1-5 SU on the road this season (only win vs Eastern Illinois) and 4 of those 5 losses have come by at least 20 points. ISU is very good offensive averaging 79 PPG and they rank 17th nationally hitting almost 39% of their shots from beyond the arc. That’s a bad match up for this Evansville defense that allows opponents to make 42% of their 3’s which is the 2nd worst mark in the country. On top of that, Evansville struggles to score averaging only 59 PPG which won’t get it done here vs the higher scoring Redbirds. We’ll lay the points. |
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01-20-22 | North Dakota v. Oral Roberts -20.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -20.5 over North Dakota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This one will be ugly. ORU has a top notch offense that ranks 77th nationally in adjusted efficiency, 32nd in eFG% and 13th in 3 point %. The are the 8th highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83 PPG and at home they are putting up a ridiculous 91 PPG. That’s going to be a massive sized problem for a North Dakota defense that ranks DEAD LAST in the country (358th) in defensive efficiency. The Hawks allow their opponents to hit 40% of their 3-point shots and we already mentioned ORU’s prowess from beyond the arc. ORU is coming home after sweeping a 3 game road trip and their last home game was on January 1st vs Nebraska Omaha. Why do we bring that up? Because Nebraska Omaha and tonight’s opponent are very similar defensively (both stink) with Omaha actually ranking 11 spots higher in defensive efficiency. How did that game turn out? Oral Roberts won 107-62! Don’t be at all surprised of the Golden Eagles hit triple digits in this game. Does North Dakota have any chance of keeping up? Nope. The Hawks rely fairly heavily on the 3 point shot and they aren’t very good at it (288th nationally). They are facing an Oral Roberts defense that has allowed opponents to make only 29% of their 3’s which is the 38th best defensive mark in the country. They are 0-8 on the road losing by an average of 19 PPG. The 3 worst teams in the Summit are North Dakota, Nebraska Omaha, and Denver (all ranked below 300). ND played the other 2 conference cellar dwellars on the road this month and lost @ Denver by 19 and @ Nebraska Omaha by 16. Now they are playing the 2nd best team in the league on the road and it’s gonna get ugly. |
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01-20-22 | Belmont -5 v. Morehead State | 74-83 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
#753 ASA PLAY ON 8* Belmont -5 over Morehead State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 have similar records (Belmont 14-4 / Morehead St 12-5) but Belmont is the much better team. Belmont’s 4 losses have all come vs top 100 teams and since their 2-point loss vs Dayton on December 18th, the Bruins have won 9 of 10 games. They’ve also beaten 4 top 100 teams this year including St Louis, Drake, and Iona away from home. This is a huge step up in competition for Morehead State. In fact, since mid December, this team has not played an opponent ranked inside the top 300. They have won 6 straight games vs teams ranked 356, 354, 319, 312, 310, and a non division 1 opponent. Their best win this season is vs Arkansas State who ranks 179th. For comparison’s sake, their opponent tonight Belmont ranks 55th nationally. In their 4 games vs top 100 opponents this year, Morehead State has lost by margins of 23, 23, 20, and 14 points. Belmont is a fantastic shooting team ranking 7th nationally in eFG%. They hit over 60% of their shots inside the arc which is a poor match up for the Morehead defense that allows opponents to score almost 60% of their points from 2-point range (21st most nationally). Belmont finished last season with a 26-4 record and they basically returned everyone from that team (97% of their minutes are back) including all 5 starters. They’ve been waiting for this one as their NCAA hopes were dashed in the OVC tourney last year by this Morehead State team. The Bruins get the revenge they’ve been waiting for. |
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01-19-22 | Iowa v. Rutgers +3.5 | Top | 46-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +3.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - Rutgers is on a nice little roll winning 5 of their last 6 games. They’re unbeaten at home in Big 10 play with wins over Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska. Iowa has played 3 conference road games losing 2 of those. Their lone Big 10 road win was on Sunday @ Minnesota facing a Gopher team without 2 of their best players in the line up (Curry & Sutherlin). The Hawkeyes have been very good at home this year (10-1 record) but their numbers drop off drastically on the road. When compared to their overall season numbers, Iowa averages 15 fewer PPG, -4% shooting, and -%7 percent from deep when playing on the road. Last year Iowa had their best team they’ve had in 20 seasons and they were -3 @ Rutgers and struggled to get by with a 77-75 win. Rutgers is the much better defensive team (54th in defensive efficiency to 158th for Iowa) and they are the bigger team. Iowa will struggle inside the arc offensively in this game. The Knights are 9-1 SU at home this season and 37-6 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. We like the host to win this one outright. |
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01-18-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6.5 over Vanderbilt, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We expect UT to play with an extra effort here after getting absolutely embarrassed over the weekend @ Kentucky. The Vols lost that game 107-79 and the Wildcats averaged a ridiculous 1.47 points per possession in the win. It was the first time since 2006 that the Vols allowed a team to reach 100 points. That was a enormously poor effort from the UT defense that STILL ranks 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency even after that performance allowing just 0.89 PPP. UK is ranked 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and now the Volunteers face a Vandy team that ranks 10th in the SEC in offensive efficiency. We expect the Commodores to struggle on offense vs one of the top defenses in the nation who will play with a little extra passion here. Vandy’s home court advantage has been little to none this year as 5 of their 6 losses have come at home. They are just 2-4 SU vs top 100 teams this year with all 4 losses coming by double digits. While Vanderbilt’s strength of schedule is ranked outside the top 100, Tennessee has played one of the toughest slates in the country (14th SOS). The Vols come in with 5 losses on the season and ALL 5 have come vs teams ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 17 (Villanova, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, and Texas Tech). UT was favored by 12 @ Vandy last year (won 70-58) and now they are laying half that number despite the Vols ranking 14th this year (per Ken Pom) while they were 28th last year when this game tipped off. Vandy is off a 7 point win over UGA (the lowest rated team in the SEC) but they are running into a buzzsaw here. The Vols have won 5 in a road @ Vanderbilt and this is a must win type of game after their blowout loss. Lay it. |
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01-17-22 | Wyoming v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -2.5 over Wyoming, Monday at 8 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. Their most recent home game was a 15 point loss vs Boise State last week. They Wolfpack were favored by 2.5 in that game vs a BSU team that is ranked 30 spots higher than this Wyoming team yet we’re laying the same number. Wyoming, on the other hand, is coming off an upset 2-point win at Utah State on Saturday with the Aggies playing without 2 of their best players. It was a huge win for the Cowboys who hadn’t played a game since December 25th prior to Saturday. They are a thin team with a short bench and now must play 2 nights later after not having played for 20 days. The Wolfpack also have some revenge in mind here after losing both games vs Wyoming last year. Both were on the road and just 2 days apart due to the Covid situation. Nevada was FAVORED in both of those road games last year but lost tight games by 5 & 7 points. They returned 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s 16-10 team and they will be extra motivated here. Nevada has played the tougher schedule so their record isn’t as impressive as Wyoming’s, but the Wolfpack have won 7 of their last 9 after a slow start to the season. The only 2 losses during that run were vs Boise State & Kansas. If this one is tight late and Nevada needs to hold on to a lead, we love the fact they shoot 78% from the FT line (Wyoming shoots just 69%). The Pack has a great home court advantage with a 61-7 SU record last 68 home games. We side with Nevada tonight. |
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01-17-22 | Purdue v. Illinois -1.5 | 96-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
#848 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois -1.5 over Purdue, Monday at 12 PM ET - We have Illinois power rated as the top team in the Big 10 right now. They are playing their best basketball over the last month or so going 6-0 with all of their wins coming by double digits. They did struggle early in the season with their All American center Cockburn out (22 PPG & 12 RPG) but since he’s come back they’ve won 11 of their last 12 games. Their only loss during that stretch was by 4 points vs Arizona (highest rated team in the Pac 12) by 4 points in a game the Illini led by double digits. Their 5 worst performances of the season from an efficiency standpoint game prior to December 12th. Purdue has played 2 Big 10 road games thus far losing @ Rutgers and beating Penn State by 7. Both offenses are high end ranking in the top 10 in adjusted efficiency, however Illinois has the much better defense (21st in efficiency and 10th in eFG% allowed). They also defense inside the arc at a very high level (8th nationally) which will help limit much of the advantage Purdue has on other teams with Edey and Williams inside. Dating back to middle of last season Illinois has covered 9 of their last 10 games at home vs Division 1 opponents. They have also won 21 of their last 24 home games outright and that’s pretty much all we need here with this line sitting at -1.5 as of this write up. Take Illinois. |
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01-15-22 | Oregon v. USC -6 | Top | 79-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* USC -6 over Oregon, Saturday at 11 PM ET - Great value here with the Trojans. As of this write up they are laying just 6 at home vs Oregon who is playing their 2nd straight road game. Because USC struggled a bit at home on Thursday with Oregon State (won by 10) and Oregon upset UCLA in OT this line is off. The Ducks opened +11 @ UCLA and we have USC rated the EXACT same (within 2 spots) of UCLA and this line is just 6. Now way the Bruins are 5 points better than the Trojans on a neutral site which is what this line suggests. A letdown is in order here for Oregon and this is a very tough spot as they are playing their 3rd road game in 6 days (Beat Oregon St by 2 on Monday and UCLA in OT on Thursday). USC is a fantastic defensive team that has held 12 of their 15 opponents to 40% or less from the field. Not a great match up for an Oregon team that shoots just 43% on the road and just 32% from deep. These teams have faced off here @ USC 3 times since the start of the 2019 season and the Trojans have won those games by 17, 14, and 14 points. We love this spot for USC and we’ll lay the points. |
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01-15-22 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 73-79 | Push | 0 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -6 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This is an absolute huge home game for Tech. They have underachieved but they are much better than their 8-7 record. They are 0-4 in the ACC and after this game they play 3 consecutive road games which basically makes this a must win. The Hokies enter this game off 3 straight losses (vs Duke, NC State, and Virginia) and Notre Dame has won 6 straight yet Tech is favored by 6. That alone speak volumes. The average rating of ND’s last 6 opponents, all wins, is 160 and 4 of those games were at home. The Irish have played 3 road games thus far in the ACC and they are vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league. They lost by 16 @ BC, beat Ga Tech in OT, and beat Pitt by 1. Va Tech has a fantastic defense ranked 26th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 41st in eFG% defense. Where they really excel is defending the arc allowing 26% good for 9th in the nation. Bad news for ND who lives at the 3-point line with 39% of their points coming from deep – 32nd in the nation – and they are even better at home hitting 41% from beyond the arc. On the flip side, VT is a great 3-point shooting team hitting 39% of their triples (15th best in the country) and the Irish struggle to defend the arc allowing 34% or 200th nationally. This one sets up really well for the home team in must win mode vs a road team that’s played very easy conference slate thus far (2nd easiest in the ACC). Lay it with Virginia Tech. |
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01-14-22 | VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
#889 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU +3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll be honest. We don’t love taking road teams in college hoops unless the situation is right. One thing we do need most of the time when siding with a road team is good defense which travels. Teams can lose their shooting acumen at times on the road, but defense is a constant. That’s absolutely what we have here with VCU. They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 3rd in 3 point % defense, 14th in 2 point % defense, and 8th in PPG allowed. This team is simply as good as it gets defensively. Their offensive numbers for the season are not great but they are absolutely trending in the right direction on that end of the court as well. The Rams have scored 75 or more in 3 of their last 5 games including topping 80 points in each of their last 2 games. If they do that, they are pretty much unbeatable with the defense they play. They are a perfect 4-0 SU on the road this year including 2 wins over top 100 teams Vanderbilt and Dayton. They average more PPG offensively in road games and allow fewer PPG away from home. This team just simply seems to play better away from home. St Bonnies is a solid team but they need to knock some rust off. They’ve only played one game since December 17th and that was an OT win @ LaSalle on Tuesday. For a recent reference point, VCU just played LaSalle on the road as well last Saturday and dominated the game beating the Explorers by 19 points. The Bonnies defense isn’t nearly at the level of VCU’s ranking 109th in adjusted efficiency and 235th guarding the arc. They have allowed 8 of their last 10 opponents to score more than 1.00 point per possession which isn’t great. For comparison’s sake, VCU has not allowed a single opponent to score 1.00 PPP in a game this year. Zippo in 14 games. The closest was Baylor who put up 0.99 PPP in their 8 point win over VCU and the Bears rank 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. Take the points with the better team and the better defense in this one. |
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01-13-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#790 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -3.5 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 7 PM ET - MTSU is just glad to be back at home after not playing here since mid December. The Blue Raiders are coming off 3 straight losses, all on the road. Two of those losses were vs Chattanooga, the top team in the Southern Conference, and then a 7 point loss @ UNT, the 3rd ranked team in CUSA. We were impressed how they fought a very good North Texas team in a very tough spot. MTSU was coming off a tight road loss @ Rice just 2 nights earlier and catching UNT off a rare home loss. FAU, on the other hand, upset Marshall on the road Saturday as 5 points dogs. The Herd played without one of their better players (Darius George) while FAU shot lights out at 54% which was more than 10% higher than their road average coming into the game. The Owls were 0-3 in road games entering that won with losses vs High Points, New Mexico, and VCU. That was a rare road win for Florida Atlantic on Saturday and with that win they’ve still won just 5 of their last 23 true road games. They are a poor defensive team (276th in eFG% defense) and more so on the road where they have allowed opponents to hit 49% of their shots from the field. Defending the arc is a huge problem for the Owls as well ranking 353rd allowing a ridiculous 41% on the season. They also turn the ball over on almost 20% of their possessions which is not good vs MTSU who is very adept at creating turnovers (41st nationally). It’s a double revenger for Middle Tennessee after losing both meetings last year. Both were on the road on back to back nights as that’s the way the played it last year with the Covid situation. Now they get FAU to play FAU here at home and the Raiders will play with urgency coming off 3 losses. Lay it. |
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01-12-22 | Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
#695/696 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Minnesota vs Michigan State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some solid value on the Under in this game. Our numbers have this one landing in the mid 130’s. These 2 met in December and the final score was MSU 75, Minnesota 67 so they tallied 142 total points. The set total in that game was 135 so because they went Over in the first game this one is now 5 points higher. The fact is the first game was very fortunate to reach the point total it did. At halftime it was on pace for 122 points. With 1:00 minute remaining these 2 teams had combined for 129 points and scored 13 in the final minute. Michigan State likes to play at a faster pace but Minnesota is one of the slower teams in the Big 10 (13th in the conference in pace) and they know to have a chance here they can’t get in an up & down game with Sparty. Expect Minnesota to control the tempo here. Both teams are very good defensively (20th & 66th in defensive efficiency) and both defend the 3 as well as anyone in the nation (MSU 27th defending the arc & Minnesota 11th). Both teams limit their fouls and are very good at keeping their opponents off the FT line – only 22 FT’s made in the first meeting. Prior to scoring 142 in the first meeting this year these two rivals only topped 137 once in their previous 9 meetings. Under is the play. |
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01-10-22 | North Dakota State v. Denver +5 | Top | 87-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
#886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +5 over North Dakota State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Denver is playing their best basketball of the year right now and we feel they are undervalued. 3 of their best performances of the season have come in their last 5 games including an easy 19 point win over North Dakota here on Saturday. The Pioneers have won 3 of their last 4 home games with their only loss coming by 4 points in OT. Their record looks poor at 6-11 but we need to take into account they played a brutal schedule from late November through mid December. During that stretch they played 6 consecutive road games in an 18 day span that were all losses. Since that stretch Denver is 3-2 SU with an OT loss (mentioned above) and a loss @ Oral Roberts, the 2nd highest rated team in the Summit. They have shot 49% during that stretch (their seasonal average is 46%) and averaged 76 PPG (seasonal average 69 PPG). NDSU hasn’t been great on the road where they have a losing record. They were barely able to get by @ Nebraska Omaha on Saturday, the worst team in the Summit, winning by 4 despite taking 13 more FT attempts. Now 2 days later they are on the road again, in altitude, which will be tough for a team that basically plays 7 guys. The Bison average 13 fewer PPG away from home this year (72 PPG overall and 59 PPG on the road) and shoot nearly 10% lower from the field (44% overall and 35% on the road). In Saturday’s win vs Omaha they were only able to average 0.89 PPP vs a team that ranks 346th nationally in defensive efficiency. They’re catching Denver playing confident basketball and we think the Pioneers have a solid shot to win this one outright. Take the points. |
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01-09-22 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +1.5 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland +1.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - The Badgers have started the New Year with a bang beating Purdue on the road and stomping Iowa at home. This is still a very young team that will have ups and downs this season and this is a really tough spot for them on the road after those 2 huge wins. Maryland is a solid team and they are in must win mode. The Terps have started the Big 10 season 0-3 with losses @ Iowa, @ Illinois, and vs Northwestern. They can’t afford to lose this one at home before they take to the road again next Wednesday. Maryland is 8-6 on the season but they’ve been very competitive with all but one of their losses going to the wire. They’ve actually held the lead in the 2nd half in all but one of their losses so this team is much better than their record. Wisconsin is not a great shooting team ranking 275th in eFG% and 302nd in 3 point percentage but they thrive at getting to the FT line (21% of their points come from the stripe). Maryland does a very good job at not fouling so the Badgers will have problems getting to the line on the road in this one. This line has been over adjusted due to recent results. Wisconsin was just a 13 point dog @ Purdue earlier this week and now they are favored @ Maryland? We have the Terps as a small favorite here and expect them to get the win in their first home game as an underdog this season. |
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01-08-22 | St. Mary's v. BYU UNDER 132.5 | Top | 43-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
#797/798 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 132 St Mary’s @ BYU, 10 PM ET - This is a big rivalry between two teams fighting for the 2nd spot in the West Coast Conference behind Gonzaga. Both teams are outstanding defensively with BYU check in with the 29th best defensive efficiency rating in college basketball allowing .93-points per possession. Those numbers are legit as they come against 35th toughest schedule to date. As good as the Cougars defensive numbers are, St Mary’s is better. The Gaels rank 12th in DEFF allowing .905PPP and they’ve faced the 64th toughest schedule. St Mary’s has allowed 60 or less points in 9 of their last eleven games. The other big key here is tempo. The Gaels rank 304th in tempo and have an average possession length of 18.5 seconds. In this heated rivalry these two teams have combined for 116 and 114 total points in the last two meetings a year ago. This game should be another low scoring defensive affair. |
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01-08-22 | Oral Roberts -1.5 v. Western Illinois | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -1.5 over Western Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET - WIU is improved this year after finishing 7-15 a year ago but much of that is due to an easy schedule (321st SOS). Almost half of their games (7) have come vs teams ranked below 300 or non Division 1 teams. This ORU team will be the highest ranked team WIU has played this season. The Leathernecks are not playing well right now losing 3 straight games, including a 6 points loss vs Nebraska Omaha who is ranked as the 338th team in the nation (out of 358 teams). We have a very solid comparison point with these 2 teams as they’ve each played the same 3 conference teams in their last 3 Summit League games. Those teams were Denver (ORU won by 17 / WIU won by 4 on OT), Nebraska Omaha (ORU won by 35 points / WIU lost by 6), and St Thomas (ORU won by 15 / WIU lost by 13). This is a terrible match up for Western as Oral Roberts loves to shoot the 3 and they are solid at doing so (38% which is 24th nationally) while the Leathernecks are really bad at defending the arc (324th nationally). On the other end of the court Western Illinois also gets a bunch of their points from beyond the arc but the Golden Eagles are one of the best at defending the 3 point line allowing just 29% (46th nationally). ORU has 6 losses on the season, however 5 of those came vs teams ranked inside the top 100. WIU, on the other hand, has played only 1 team all season ranked inside the top 100 (21 point loss). We’ll lay this small number on the road. |
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01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge early season game for the Hoosiers. They currently sit with a 1-2 Big 10 record and they can’t afford to drop to 1-3 with a home loss. OSU is 3-0 on the season but they are fortunate to be in that spot as they nearly lost @ Nebraska on Sunday. The Huskers, rated 141st nationally and the only Big 10 team outside the top 100, led OSU by 5 points with 35 seconds remaining in the game on Sunday. A late key 3 pointer by OSU and missed FT’s by Nebraska sent the game to OT where the Buckeyes won. OSU shot nearly 50% from 3 point land (16 of 34) and still struggled to put away the worst team in the Big 10 on the road. IU will be highly motivated coming off a 3-point loss @ Penn State. Sort of the opposite of the Buckeye win on Sunday, Indiana shot very poorly @ PSU hitting just 39% overall and only 23% from beyond the arc and still had 2 shots in the final 10 seconds to tie the game missing both. IU could easily be undefeated on the season as their 3 losses were all tight road games including a OT loss @ Syracuse and a 5-point loss @ Wisconsin a game they led by 20 points before the Badgers made a furious comeback. The Hoosiers have the best defense in the Big 10 ranking 14th nationally in efficiency, 4th in eFG% allowed and 1st in the nation at defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 39%. IU is unblemished at home with a 9-0 record and 7 of those wins coming by double digits. A great defense at home in a must win spot has been a solid long term money maker and we’ll jump on the Hoosiers here. |
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01-05-22 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -1 | Top | 47-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -1 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - ISU is coming off their first loss of the season on Saturday getting tripped up at home 77-72 by Baylor – Ken Pom’s #1 rated team. In that game the Cyclones made ONE three pointer in 14 attempts which put them at 7% from beyond the arc. Even with that, they made a nice comeback and nearly took out the Bears. Prior to that loss ISU was 12-0, including 4-0 vs top 50 teams with 3 of those 4 wins coming by double digits vs Iowa, Memphis, and Xavier. Tech has played the 3rd EASIEST schedule in the nation thus far (356th ranked SOS). The Red Raiders have played 3 top 50 teams and they are 1-2 in those games. It’s been almost 3 weeks since they played a team with a pulse which is not ideal. On top of that, they’ve played only one true road game this year – loss at Providence – and that was back on December 1st. If you subtract those 3 top 50 opponents Tech’s average opponent rank is 292nd. Iowa State is a great defensive team ranking 7th in efficiency, 11th in eFG% allowed, 5th in 3 point % allowed, 10th in PPG allowed (57), and 6th in defensive turnover rate. We love good defensive teams at home as a dog or low favorite, especially off a home loss. ISU was terrible last year but their new head coach Otzelberger has total revamped this team with big time transfers from Kansas, Penn State, Minnesota, Washington State and UNLV. The remain undervalued in our opinion and we like them to win this one. |
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01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest -1 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Wake will be desperate for a home win after losing 2 straight down to the wire road games. At Louisville last Wednesday, Wake led by 1 with just over a minute remaining and lost by 4 despite shooting just 38% overall, 25% from deep, and making 11 fewer FT’s. At Miami on Saturday the Deacs shot much better but were only awarded 8 FT attempts the entire game while the Canes shot 27 from the line. Despite that WF was down 3 with under 3:00 minutes remaining and lost by 8. Now back at home where they are 7-0 this year and average 84 PPG, we expect them to play very well. They catch FSU off a huge road win @ NC State on Saturday and now playing again on the road just a few days later. They shot lights out (51%) in that 2 point win over NC State which is well above their season average. Even after that effort FSU is still shooting just 43% on the road so expect a big regression here vs a solid Wake defense which has allowed opponents to shoot just 38% here at home. Prior to Saturday’s win, the Noles were 0-3 SU on road games with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. They are now 0-7 ATS their last 7 road games. These 2 met last year @ FSU and a Wake team that was ranked 115th at the time nearly pulled off the upset vs an FSU team that was ranked 15th at the time. The Deacs lost that game in OT. Wake is MUCH better this season and FSU has regressed. We expect the Demon Deacons to pick up a home win on Tuesday. |
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01-02-22 | Illinois State v. Valparaiso OVER 138.5 | Top | 76-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
#767/768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 138.5 Points – Illinois State vs Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET - The Illinois State offense has been impressive this season. They rank 26th nationally averaging 81 PPG and they just put up 85 points on Wednesday vs a Wisconsin defense that was allowing just 61 PPG prior to that game. The Redbirds are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 40% of their triples (10th nationally). They are facing a Valpo defense that ranks 266th at defending the arc. Valpo also shoots the 3 very well (almost 36%) and ISU ranks 296th at defending the triple. Both teams should light it up from deep. Valpo’s overall offensive stats are misleading because they played their first 9 games (minus non division 1 games) without arguably their best scorer Kobe King (Wisconsin transfer). They averaged 66 PPG without King and 74 PPG with him in the line up. Both teams rank inside the top 85 in eFG% offense and outside the top 150 in eFG% defense. ISU has scored at least 74 points in 10 of their last 11 games and they’ve gotten to at least 80 points in 9 of those games. Their games have averaged 157 total points. Valpo games this year have averaged 141 total PPG with King sitting on the bench for most of the season. This one is set too low and we grab the OVER. |
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01-01-22 | Villanova v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#620 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Hall is coming off a loss on Wednesday losing by 5 points @ #21 Providence. The Pirates shot just 39% overall and only 21% from beyond the arc but still had a shot down 3 with less than 30 seconds remaining. They were a bit rusty having not played a game since December 12th so that game should help them here. Nova, on the other hand, has now been off since December 21st and are in a similar situation going on the road for this one. The Cats have not been great on the road this year with a 2-3 SU record. Their road wins have come against teams ranked 250 or lower and their 3 losses have come vs solid competition all in the top 100. Seton Hall absolutely falls into that category ranking 28th in our power ratings. Villanova relies on the 3-point shot almost more than any team in college basketball with over 42% of their points coming from deep (13th most nationally). The problem here is the Cats have been a really poor shooting team on the road hitting only 29% of their 3-point shots and they are facing a SH defense that ranks 7th nationally defending the arc allowing 25%. This is a good match up for the undervalued Pirates playing at home. The dog has covered 5 of 6 in this series and we like Seton Hall to win this one. |
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12-29-21 | Tennessee v. Alabama -2 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
#698 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -2 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot at home for the talented Crimson Tide. They are coming off an upset loss at the hands of Davidson. They were 9 point favorites in that game and lost by 1 point. Meanwhile UT is off a huge upset win over Arizona who came into the game 11-0 on the season. That game was at home for the Vols and now they play just their 2nd true road game of the season. Alabama’s schedule has prepared them for these type of games as they’ve already faced 8 top 100 teams this season. They have wins over both Gonzaga and Houston who both rank higher than this Tennessee team. The Vols have played 5 top 100 teams this year and they are 3-2 SU in those games. The remainder of their wins come vs teams that rank 150 or lower. Tennessee’s defense has been very good this year but this will be the best offense they’ve faced so far (Bama 9th in offensive efficiency) and again the game is on the road. Bama shoots a lot of 3’s and if there is a weakness for UT’s defense it’s defending the arc (91st nationally). The Vols also get to the line very rarely generating just 11% of their points from the stripe which is 352nd in the nation. Tough to win on the road in a game like this if they don’t get some significant points from the stripe. Bama has Won 22 of their last 25 home games and they get another here. |
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12-28-21 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +4 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh +4 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Pitt struggled early in the season losing 6 of their first 8 games but they’ve righted the ship. It also wasn’t as bad early on as it may have seemed with 4 of those losses coming vs top 100 teams including two 1-point losses vs Minnesota & Virginia. The Panthers have now won 3 of their last 4 including an impressive road win @ St Johns. Their defense has picked up holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 0.90 PPP or less and 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 60 points. Notre Dame has underperformed all season with just a 2-8 ATS record. They are just 1-5 SU away from home (road or neutral) and their only win was vs Chaminade. In games away from home the Irish are hitting just 42% of their shots while allowing 50%. Last year Pitt was favored at home in this match up 3.5 points and now they are getting 4 points. Too big of a swing in the spread and we really like the way Pitt is playing right now. The dog is 10-3-1 ATS in this series and we like the home puppy getting points here. |
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12-22-21 | Oral Roberts +8 v. South Dakota State | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
#761 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +8 over South Dakota State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Too many points here. Last year ORU was +4.5 @ SDSU and won the game outright by 2 points. The Golden Eagles return 5 of their top 6 players from last year and will give South Dakota State problems again this season. ORU won the Summit League tourney last year, went to the NCAA tourney and beat both Ohio State and Florida making the Sweet 16 where they lost by 2 points vs Arkansas. We’re getting value in the number on Oral Roberts here. They’ve already played 2 road games vs teams that are rated higher than SDSU and the Golden Eagles were getting fewer points in BOTH of those games (+8 @ TCU and +7.5 @ Missouri State). SDSU, on the other hand, was just favored by 12 points (just 3 points more than this number) on Monday vs a UMKC team ranked nearly 100 spots lower than Oral Roberts. The Jackrabbits have relied on getting to the FT line a lot this year (111th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ORU doesn’t foul very much. On the other end, the Golden Eagles are a very good 3 point shooting team (31st nationally) and 48% of their points come from deep which is 2nd most in the nation. SDSU is poor at defending the arc (257th) so Oral Roberts will have success offensively. We give ORU a decent shot to pull the upset here and they are getting nearly double digits. Take the points. |
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12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova -5.5 over Xavier, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We are siding with one of the best teams in the nation coming off 2 losses. This is a great spot to jump on Nova at home. The Cats lost their last 2 games @ Baylor and @ Creighton, with their most recent game vs the Blue Jays being their worst effort of the season. We look for them to play very well at home in a must win type game early in the season. They have only played 3 home games this season which resulted in wins of 40, 29, and 19 points. They are 35-3 SU their last 38 home games! The Wildcats have prepared themselves well by playing one of the top 10 SOS’s in the country. Nova has already faced FOUR teams ranked in Ken Pom’s top 10 – Baylor, Purdue, UCLA, and Tennessee. The rolled Tennessee and led by double digits in the 2nd half vs both Purdue & UCLA before losing tight games. Xavier is solid but they’ve feasted on home games so far this season. They’ve played just ONE true road game @ Oklahoma State a few weeks ago. Despite shooting a terrible 10 of 50 from 3-point land their last 2 games Villanova is still ranked 8th nationally in efficiency averaging 1.14 points per possession and they are still making a very solid 36.2% of their 3’s on the season. The favorite has covered 13 of the last 17 in this Big East battle and Xavier is 0-6 SU @ Villanova since joining the Big East. We like Nova to bounce back in a big way at home tonight. |
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12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +12.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 54-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
#306227 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland Eastern Shore +12.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 7 PM ET - UMES is undervalued right now as they step into this game with a perfect 7-0 ATS record. They have played well on the road winning 2 games already as an underdog and losing by 12 or less @ UConn, @ St Joes, @ Liberty, and @ Campbell, all teams rated higher than this Charlotte squad. UMES has some momentum winning 3 in a row and they’ve had 9 days off to rest up and get ready for this one. Charlotte just played Friday in a huge game for them @ Wake Forest. They lost by 3 but the final was misleading as Wake led the game by 19 before Charlotte made a furious comeback. With only a few days rest we anticipate a letdown here. The 49ers are 5-5 this year and their home wins have come by 2, 7 and 12 points along with a 17 point home loss vs Davidson. Not one of their wins this season has come by more than 12 points. The 49ers are poor defensively ranking 325th in eFG% allowed so they have a tough time pulling away in their games. UMES doesn’t have great overall stats on the year but they don’t turn the ball over and they shoot the 3 quite well at 35%. Facing a Charlotte defense that allows opponents to hit 35.6% (ranked 266th) we like Maryland Eastern Shore to hang around in this game. Take the points. |
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12-18-21 | Baylor v. Oregon UNDER 135.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* 707/708 UNDER 135.5 Baylor at Oregon 10 PM ET - Baylor’s defense is stifling as they allow just 54.1PPG on the season and have held all of their opponents to less than 63 points and three of them to less than 50-points. The Bears have the 3rd best overall defensive efficiency rating allowing .861PPP. Another key factor here is pace and Baylor ranks 190th in adjusted tempo. The Bears defend the 3-point line as well as anyone allowing 27.9% on the season and 43.3% inside the arc. Oregon has gotten off to a disappointing start with a 6-5 record, but they’ve faced the 65th toughest schedule to date and still have the 104th best defensive efficiency rating. Oregon knows to have a shot at winning this game they must control the tempo and keep this a low scoring game. The Ducks ae 308th in adjusted tempo this season and on average take 17.6 seconds to get a shot up which ranks 215th. Oregon 5-1 to the Under their last six at home against a team with a winning road record, Bears 4-1 Under their last five versus a team with a winning home record. |
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12-18-21 | Providence v. Connecticut UNDER 135.5 | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* #663/664 UNDER 135.5 Providence vs Connecticut, 5 PM ET - The defenses of these two teams are outstanding and we can’t see either of these two getting to 65 in this contest. Providence is 71st in defensive efficiency allowing just .952-points per possession and holds foes to an effective field goal percentage of 46.3% which ranks 67th. In their last three games the Friars have allowed 54PPG and they’ve only given more than 64 points just 3 times in their last ten games. As for the Huskies, their overall defensive numbers are outstanding. UConn is 27th in DEFF, have the 10th best EFG% defense at 42.6%, force 22.7 turnovers per game, rank 6th in block% and limit opponents to 40% shooting inside the arc. UConn is 179th in adjusted tempo while Providence is 206th. Finally the value in the number is what sealed the deal for us. Last year these two programs met twice and the numbers on those games were 130.5 and 133.5 with both ending with 134 and 129 total points being scored. The play here is UNDER. |
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12-17-21 | St. Mary's -2 v. San Diego State | Top | 53-63 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -2 over San Diego State, Friday at 10 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix. St Mary’s has been waiting for this one. That’s because when these two faced off last year (first time in 10 years) SDSU embarrassed the Gaels 74-49. St Mary’s returned 100% of their minutes from last year so this veteran team was all there last year during that debacle. They are 10-2 this year and have already beaten 3 top 100 teams. San Diego State is 0-3 vs top 100 teams this year with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. The Aztecs are a poor shooting team which will be a problem here vs the 8th most efficient defense in the nation. SDSU ranks 302nd in FG%, 312th in 3 point FG%, and 320th in scoring. On top of that they only make 66% of their FT’s. San Diego State is 6-3 on the year but they’ve also had some luck on their side as their opponents have only shot 60% from the FT in games vs the Aztecs which is the 4th worst in the nation. Both teams are very good defensively but St Mary’s is the much better shooting team, extra motivated, and one of the more veteran teams in college basketball. This number is too small in our opinion. Take St Mary’s. |
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12-15-21 | South Dakota State v. Missouri State -2.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -2.5 over South Dakota State, Wed at 7 PM ET - Terrible spot for South Dakota State here. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off an upset win over Washington State (game played in Spokane). They won by just 3 points in a game they shot 62% from beyond the arc with Washington State hitting only 25% of their triples. Wash State also played without one of their better players (Jackson) in that game. Prior to that win, SDSU lost @ Idaho by 14 on Wednesday. That’s an Idaho team that ranks below 300 and whose only win previous to beating the Jackrabbits was over something called George Fox University. Missouri State returns all 5 starters from a team that went 17-7 last season. One of those starters is out with an injury but they are experienced on their bench as well. The Bears are currently rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC only behind Loyola Chicago. They are a solid shooting team that is facing a most likely tired and terrible defensive team in South Dakota State – ranks below 250th in most major defensive categories. If they need to protect a lead late MSU hits 80% from the line as a team. Great spot for the Bears facing a SDSU team that has traveled to Idaho, then Washington, and now Missouri all in the span of a week. |
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12-14-21 | Georgia State v. Mississippi State -9 | Top | 50-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -9 over Georgia State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - MSU is off back to back losses vs Minnesota & Colorado State and they really need this win at home. Each of those losses was decided in the final seconds as MSU was tied with Minnesota with under 1 minute remaining and they led CSU by 8 with less than 6 minutes remaining and lost by 3. The Bulldogs were 6-1 SU prior to those losses with their only setback coming vs Louisville. Georgia State is 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming in OT @ High Point. The 2 top 100 teams they faced on the road both routed this team with Richmond winning by 16 and Rhode Island winning by 35. Both of those teams rank lower than this Mississippi State team. GSU plays terrible defense which is why they struggle on the road. The Panthers rank 357th in eFG% defense and 355th in 3 point FG defense allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 43% from deep. MSU is 68th nationally in defensive efficiency and will be the highest rated defense that Georgia State has faced this year. MSU also has a huge size advantage (69th nationally in average height with GSU 348th in that category) and should control the glass on both ends. The Bulldogs shoot very well at home (50% overall & 41% from deep) and they will have their way vs this poor GSU defense. Must win for MSU off 2 losses and they play with urgency tonight. |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
#877/878 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 131 Points – Rhode Island vs UW Milwaukee, Monday at 8 PM ET - Two slow paced, solid defensive teams facing off in this game. URI ranks 314th in pace and their defense allows just 62 PPG on the season. They rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 18th in eFG% defense. They have allowed only 1 team this season to reach 70 points and they are facing a UWM team that ranks 318th in scoring averaging 63 PPG. Milwaukee’s offensive struggles have come vs a weak defensive slate of opponents. 7 of Milwaukee’s 9 opponents currently rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. URI will be just the 3rd team they’ve faced this year that ranks inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency and the Panthers were able to score just 45 and 54 points in the other 2 games. UWM ranks 275th in pace and their defense is the strength of their team ranking 58th in eFG% allowed. They match up very well defensively vs Rhode Island as the Rams score the vast majority of their points inside the arc and at the FT line. Milwaukee’s D has defended inside the arc very well (26th nationally) and they foul very little. The Rams offense has topped 72 points just twice this season and those games were vs fast paced teams with very poor defenses (Georgia State & Bryant). The projected final here is right around 70-62 in favor of URI. Our projections have both teams coming up short of those projections. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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12-11-21 | Houston v. Alabama -1 | Top | 82-83 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#716 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Houston, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Big game here and we give Bama the edge at home. The Crimson Tide have a record of 16-1 SU at home since start of last year and they are 12-5 ATS in those games. Their average margin of victory in those 17 home games was +15 points per game. This year they are 4-0 here with an average margin of victory of +19 points per game. They have had a week off since beating Gonzaga in Seattle 91-82 last Saturday. The Tide dominated that game vs last year’s National Champions holding as much as an 18 point lead in the 2nd half. That that game was in Gonzaga’s back yard. This will be their first home game since November 17th when they beat Oakland, the top team in the Horizon League, by 27 points. We absolutely respect Houston and know they are a very good team, but this will be their first true road game of the season. It’s also been almost 3 weeks since they’ve played a legitimate opponent with their last 3 games coming against teams ranked 336th, 314th, and 231st. The Cougars have 3 wins vs top 100 opponents this year, however all 3 of those teams are struggling this season (Virginia, Butler, and Oregon). They lost to Wisconsin on a neutral court for their only setback. Houston had an outstanding 28-4 record last season but they only played 8 true road games and they were 5-3 SU in those games with losses to East Carolina, Tulsa, and Wichita State. Two evenly matched teams here and home court will be a huge factor. Bama gets the win. |
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12-11-21 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -3.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
#604 ASA PLAY ON 8* Ohio State -3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We are located in Madison WI so we know the Badgers quite well. They have outperformed expectations thus far but they are still a very young team (303rd nationally in experience) that will have ups & downs. We think this is a spot they will struggle. It’s just their 2nd true road game of the season after winning by 4 points @ Georgia Tech on December 1st. A Tech team that is solid but nowhere near as good as this Ohio State team. Wisconsin is off a game on Wednesday night where they were in a huge 22 point hole at home vs Indiana and made a massive comeback to pick up a win. It was Wisconsin’s biggest comeback in school history. Ohio State was taking care of non-conference foe Towson while the Badgers were exerting a huge amount of energy in their comeback. Both teams are very good defensively but OSU has the much better offensive numbers. They rank 7th nationally in efficiency, 11th in eFG%, 18th in 3 point FG%, and 32nd in 2 point FG%. Wisconsin ranks 48th, 272nd, 262nd, and 245th respectively in those categories. OSU is 5-0 at home this year including a win over Duke. The Badgers are very good this year, better than expected but this is a bad spot for them. Take OSU. |
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12-09-21 | Texas v. Seton Hall +2.5 | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
#852 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall +2.5 over Texas, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here in our opinion. This line opened Texas -2 and we have Seton Hall power rated as a 2-point favorite. Texas is 6-1 but they’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 185 this season. That was a double digit loss vs Gonzaga. The Horns also have played one 1 road game this year and haven’t been away from home since November 13th. This is a tough spot for them to be favored against an undervalued Seton Hall team. We were on the Pirates earlier this year when they were a dog @ Michigan and won outright. They’ve played the tougher schedule having already faced 2 top 20 teams and 5 ranked inside the top 140. Seton Hall’s only loss this season was by 3 points vs Ohio State, who just beat Duke a week ago. The Pirates are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 4 senior starters and 3 more upperclassmen who contribute off the bench. They play outstanding defense (30th in efficiency & 15th in eFG% defense) and they are one of the better rebounding teams in the country. The Longhorns are integrating a number of new transfers into the rotation and new head coach Chris Beard is still perfecting his schemes on both ends of the court with this team. Seton Hall is by far the best team Texas has played in nearly a month and we don’t see the Horns winning this game on the road. Take the points. |
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12-08-21 | Marquette +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like this spot for Marquette coming off a loss on Saturday @ Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles have been better than expected this year with 3 wins already over top 100 opponents including Illinois, West Virginia, and Ole Miss. KSU is coming off a big win over in-state foe Wichita State. Those 2 hadn’t played in 18 years and a big deal was made of that game so KSU could be a little flat here. There is also a good chance they’ll be without their leading scorer Pack (16 PPG) who is dealing with a concussion. Prior to their win over Wichita all of KSU’s wins were vs teams ranked 288th or lower. The only 2 top 100 teams they faced prior to Sunday but ended in losses for the Wildcats (Illinois & Arkansas). KSU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but in their 5 wins they’ve faced 3 teams with an offensive efficiency rank of below 300 and their opponents average offensive efficiency rank in those win is 278th. Marquette ranks in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Marquette remains undervalued having already won 3 games outright as an underdog this season. The Golden Eagles will give the Cats all they can handle here and we give them a great shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-07-21 | Bradley v. Toledo -6 | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
#610 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toledo -6 over Bradley, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a 13 point loss @ Michigan State over the weekend and we look for them to bounce back with a home win. Speaking of him, Toledo is just happy to be playing a home game as they’ve played only 2 of their 8 games this season at home. Even with that, they have a solid 6-2 record on the season. Speaking of home games, the Rockets have won 17 of their last 18 games at Savage Arena with 15 of those 17 wins coming by at least 6 points which would give them a cover tonight (spread as of this writing is -5.5). They return a number of key players from a team that finished last season with a 21-9 record. Bradley has had to replace a number of their top players from a year ago with 8 new players on the team. After starting the year with a 1-5 record, the Braves have won 3 straight but those wins were all at home and 2 of those wins came vs teams ranked below 300. The one game they did win vs a solid opponent was a 2 point win at home over Northern Iowa. Bradley was +4.5 at home in that game and now they are +5.5 on the road vs a Toledo team we have power rated higher than UNI. Value on the host here. Bradley has only played 1 true road game this season and that was their season opener in early November, a 16 point loss @ South Dakota State. They have a record of 2-10 SU on the road since the beginning of last season. One huge advantage for Toledo here is at the FT line. They get there a lot with 22% of their points coming from the stripe (40th in CBB). Bradley sends teams to the line a lot with 23.6% of their opponent’s points coming from the line (20th most in CBB). Toledo shoots 78% from the line. Bradley shoots 58% from the line and they don’t get there much (14% of points from FT line – 309th). Rockets win and cover at home. |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -2 over Illinois, Monday at 7 PM ET - We went against Iowa on Friday night when they traveled to Purdue and the Hawks impressed us. They lost by just 7 facing the #1 team in the country in one of the toughest venues in the nation. A very good 3-point shooting team (37th best nationally), Iowa hit only 23% from beyond the arc in that game and made 12 fewer FT’s than the Boilers and still had a shot trailing by 2 points with 2:30 remaining. Not only that, they did so without their star player Keegan Murray (25 PPG & 9 RPG) who was out with an ankle injury. Murray is scheduled to be back in the line up in this game. The Illini have played 3 games away from their home arena this year and it hasn’t been impressive. They lost @ Marquette, lost by 20 on a neutral site vs Cincinnati and beat Kansas State by 8 on a neutral. They’ve struggled all year with turnovers (308th in TO percentage) and now they face a pressing Iowa team that is very good at creating turnovers (37th nationally). It won’t help that the Illini will most likely be without their starting PG Curbelo who has a neck issue. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and the host has covered 6 of the last 7. With this number currently sitting at -2, we most likely just need Iowa to win this game at home where they’ve won 33 of their last 36 games. Take the Hawkeyes. |
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12-04-21 | Youngstown State v. Green Bay UNDER 133.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #685/686 UNDER 133.5 Youngstown State at UW Green Bay, 7 PM ET - This is a great matchup of coaches who come from strong defensive backgrounds. Youngstown State’s head coach Jerrod Calhoun is a former Bob Huggins’ disciple, and Will Ryan is the son of legendary Bo Ryan. Will Ryan has also adopted his dad’s philosophy on offense, which is slow, deliberate and painstakingly slow. The Phoenix are 341st in pace of play this season after ranking 313th a year ago. UWGB had some turnover on their roster this season and are struggling to score with the 311th worst EFG% shooting team in college basketball. The Phoenix make just 27% of their 3-point attempts which is 328th in the nation. Youngstown was 228th in EFG% shooting a year ago, 296th in 3-point shooting at 30.9%. The Penguins also prefer to play at a slower tempo ranking 202nd in pace after finishing last year 212th. Two slower paced teams that can’t shoot make this an inviting UNDER wager. |
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12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue -11.5 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11.5 over Iowa, Friday at 9 PM ET - This is a statement game for the Boilers. It’s their first Big 10 game of the season and a revenger at that after getting beat 70-55 @ Iowa in their only meeting last year. We have the Boilers currently rated as the #1 team in the nation right now. They are 6-0 on the season with an average winning margin of +28 points. That includes 3 top 40 teams as they’ve topped UNC, Villanova, and Florida State. At home they have won by the following margins - 28 (vs a very solid Florida State team), 57, 44, 25, and 29 points and all but one of those games was vs teams ranked inside the top 195. The Boilers rank #1 nationally in offensive efficiency, #2 in 3-point %, #2 in 2-point % and they make 76% of their FT’s. Iowa is 7-0 on the season but they’ve played just 1 team ranked inside the top 200 and that was a 1-point win vs Virginia who is solid but not great this season. Purdue has been home since November 21st while Iowa is playing their 2nd road game this week. We think the Hawks are overvalued right now. They are undefeated but lost 3 of their top 5 players from last year’s team including national player of the year Luka Garza. Purdue’s Mackey Arena has not been kind to the Hawkeyes as they’ve won just ONCE there since 2008 (1-11 SU record). The last 3 meetings Purdue has won by margins of 36, 16 and 22 points. Boilers roll to a big win here. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
#767/768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Portland State vs Idaho State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here makes for a low scoring game. Let’s start with Portland State. They had a few higher scoring games vs something called Evergreen State and George Fox which makes their overall season stats look much better than they are. Throw those 2 games out and they are averaging just 56 PPG vs Division 1 opponents. PSU ranks 356th in eFG%, 357th in 3 point making only 18% from beyond the arc, and they almost never get to the FT line (14% of their points on the season). There are 358 Division 1 teams which tells you how poor they’ve been offensively. Now we move to Idaho State. They are averaging 55 PPG vs their 5 Division 1 opponents they faced so far this season. The Bengals rank 297th in eFG% and 310th in 3 point %. And those numbers come vs a schedule in which 4 of the 5 teams they’ve faced rank below 200 in defensive efficiency. Portland State does like to play at a fast pace, however the host Idaho State is one of the slowest teams in the country ranking 333rd in tempo. It’s really tough to speed up a slow paced team and we expect Idaho State to get their preferred slow tempo here. The 2 Big Sky foes met twice last year and totaled 112 and 121 points. We like UNDER here. |
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12-01-21 | Louisville v. Michigan State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Louisville vs Michigan State, Wed at 7:15 PM ET - We have 2 of the best performing defenses in college basketball facing off in this game and we expect this one to stay under the total. MSU ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Louisville ranks 18th. Sparty has stayed under this number of 135 in 4 of their last 5 games. Their only game during that stretch that went over this number was vs Eastern Michigan who plays at a very fast pace and has a defense ranked 254th in efficiency. The only 2 teams this year to top 70 points vs MSU’s defense were Kansas & Baylor who rank 5th and 6th nationally in offensive efficiency. The offense they are facing tonight, Louisville, ranks 93rd in offensive efficiency. The Cards have allowed more than 67 points just once this season and in their 2 most recent games vs Maryland (60th in offensive efficiency) and Mississippi State (49th in offensive efficiency) this defense allowed just 55 and 58 points. Both teams struggle to shoot the 3 well both ranking below 210th and both defend the arc with neither allowing 30%. We don’t expect many points from deep tonight. Both are inside the top 23 in eFG% defense while each offense ranks outside the top 160 in that category. Each of these defenses makes it very tough to get shots allowing a shot attempt every 18+ seconds which ranks them both outside the top 300 in defensive pace. MSU & Louisville have combined to play 13 games this year with only 4 going over the total. Another lower scoring game here that we project to land in the high 120’s. |
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11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia +1.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia +1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - We understand Iowa is looking great early in the season with a 6-0 record. They’ve played all of those games at home and haven’t faced a single team ranked inside the top 200. The best defense they’ve faced was ranked 168th in efficiency and 5 of the 6 defenses they’ve faced rank 200 or lower. Tonight comes a whole different animal. Iowa is on the road for the first time and facing one of the top defenses in the country. UVA ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and they are playing better than that ranking right now. After a rare rough start to the season on the defensive end, they have held their last 4 opponents to 0.70, 0.71, 0.84, and 0.85 points per possession. That includes games vs Power 5 opponents Providence and Georgia. We’re not sure what to make of Iowa quite yet. We feel they are overvalued right now for sure. The Hawkeyes lost 3 of their top players from last year’s team including Luka Garza who was national player of the year. Our ratings have UVA as the favorite here. The Cavs have only been a home dog FOUR times since the start of the 2011 season (vs UNC (twice), Duke, and FSU). They are 4-0 ATS in those games and they are 59-7 SU at home their last 66. We like the value here with Virginia as a home dog. |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. Utah UNDER 139 | Top | 75-64 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139 Points – BYU vs Utah, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET - Two rivals going at it tonight and we expect a lower scoring affair. Both defenses have been stellar this year with BYU ranking 8th in eFG% defense and Utah ranking 10th in the same category. Neither team ranks inside the top 130 in eFG% offense despite playing a fairly easy slate of defenses this season. Utah has played one of the weaker schedules in the country thus far and they have not faced a defense ranked in the top 100 in efficiency. Despite playing a weak slate of defenses, Utah games have averaged 134 total points this season. BYU has played 2 top 100 defenses this season (San Diego St & Oregon) and those games have totaled 126 & 130 points. If we throw out their game vs Central Methodist (non Division 1) the Cougar games are averaging 132 total points. Neither team shoot the 3 pointer very well and both defend the arc at a high level (BYU #1 nationally defending the 3 and Utah 30th) so we don’t expect many points from deep. Our power ratings have this game finishing in the mid 130’s so some value on the Under in this one. |
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11-26-21 | Alabama -6.5 v. Drake | Top | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -6.5 over Drake, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We like the value with Bama here coming off their first loss of the season yesterday. We have the Tide as a 9 point favorite and the line is sitting at -6. Alabama has top 10 talent and they’ve proven that this year with blowout wins over solid competition. Prior to losing 72-68 vs Iona yesterday, the Crimson Tide had faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 135 this season and destroyed all of them. They beat La Tech (2nd highest rated team in Conference USA / 24-8 record last year) by 29, topped Oakland (highest rated team in the Horizon) by 27, and beat South Dakota State (by far the highest rated team in the Summit) by 16. Yesterday they ran into a senior dominated Iona team that had their eyes set on this game after losing to Alabama in the first round of the NCAA tourney last season. Bama led for most of the game but a late run by Iona got the tight win. We respect Drake as one of the top mid majors this season but they’ve struggled with the 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced this year losing yesterday to Belmont and struggling to beat Richmond at home by 3. The Bulldogs have relied heavily on the 3 point shot this season (37% of their points / 71st nationally) but today the face one of the best teams in the nation at defending the arc. The Tide currently rank 13th in the nation allowing just 23% from deep and it’s no fluke as they ranked 10th in the country in the same category last year. Drake is coming off a great season in 2020, however they didn’t face a single top 100 team in the non-conference last year and the best team in their league, Loyola Chicago, beat them in 2 of their 3 match ups last year. Both Loyola wins were by double digits and Drake’s lone win vs the Ramblers was by 1 point. Drake runs into a buzzsaw here vs one of the more talented teams in the country. Lay it with Alabama. |
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11-24-21 | VCU v. Syracuse UNDER 130.5 | Top | 67-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
#747/748 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130 Points – Syracuse vs VCU, Wednesday at 5 PM ET - Syracuse is coming off a high scoring game vs Colgate which pushed this total quite a bit higher than it should be by our projections. It has dropped a few points since but we still like the Under in this game. Colgate was a very good shooting team that likes to play at a high tempo. They made 18 three pointers in their big win over Syracuse. By comparison, VCU had made 15 three pointers the entire season in 4 games. The Rams are a poor shooting team (286th eFG%), that doesn’t make FT’s (61%) and plays slow. On the other end of the court VCU has been outstanding. They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and they’ve allowed their first 4 opponents an average of 51 PPG with none topping 58. Syracuse has solid offensive numbers but they’ve played 3 defenses that rank 192nd or lower in efficiency. 2 of the 3 teams they’ve faced also like to play up tempo and that won’t be the case in this one. To beat the Syracuse zone you need to make some 3’s and VCU just isn’t equipped to do that (313th in 3-point %). They love to play inside the paint. The Cuse is a solid 3-point shooting team thus far but they are now facing a VCU defense that allows just 21% from beyond the arc (6th nationally). It’s tough to get shots against both of these defenses which is why they ranked 350th and 355th in defensive pace. Our projections have this landing in the mid to upper 120’s so we’ll take the UNDER. |
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11-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -7.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - Houston was a Final 4 team a year ago and they return 4 of their top 7 players. They also have added 2 key transfers that play significant minutes including an All Conference caliber player from Texas Tech (Kyler Edwards). They dominated Butler from start to finish yesterday on their way to an 18 point win. Their game prior to that they crushed Virginia by 20 points – game was played last week. The Cougs are a veteran team with all juniors and seniors in the starting line up. Wisconsin is very young this year after losing 4 of 5 starters from a year ago. The Badgers got behind by 16 points yesterday vs Texas A&M and made a massive comeback to pick up an easy win. A&M wanted to run and they got this young Wisconsin team to play their pace early on before HC Gard made some adjustments to slow the game down. The Aggies offense does not excel in the half court and that allowed Wisconsin to make their comeback. Today they face a very physical, mature team that also likes to play a slow tempo. UW is not a great shooting team this year (284th in eFG%) and they are facing a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency after ranking 9th a year ago. The Cougars, on the other hand, are a much better shooting team ranking 10% better eFG% and 10% better from 3-point land when compared to Wisconsin. This is a very tough match up for a UW team that is still learning the ropes. Take Houston. |
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11-22-21 | Providence +1.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +1.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - The wrong team is favored in this one. Our power ratings have Providence as a 3 point favorite on a neutral court. NW is 4-0 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in college basketball thus far. The Cats have played all home games and haven’t faced a team ranked inside the top 260 and 3 of their 4 opponents were ranked outside the top 315. Providence is also 4-0 but 3 of their 4 opponents are ranked higher than anyone NW has played this season. The Friars went to Wisconsin and won which is never easy to do. The led the Badgers for most of the game and the final score of 63-58 was closer than the game really was as Providence led by 13 with 6:00 remaining. The Friars are a veteran team with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up. They are a very good interior offense (61% from inside the arc – 11th best nationally) with big man Nate Watson leading the way. He’s averaging 21 PPG and has made a remarkable 74% of his shots inside the arc (34 of 46). We don’t think NW has anyone that can guard him. Because Providence is more of an interior team, they get to the FT line a lot already getting to the stripe 52 more times than their opponents this season. With a solid defense on top of that (79th in defensive efficiency) this is a team that should play very well on the road this year as they don’t rely on 3-pointers. NW leaving their campus for the first time (game is in Newark NJ) playing a team that is far superior to anyone they’ve played will be a problem for the Cats tonight. Providence is the play here. |
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11-20-21 | North Carolina v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - The Boilers are loaded this year returning 4 of 5 starters from last year and many of their key reserves. They have 2 of the top players in the Big 10 in Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey. We had them rated as the best team in the Big 10 entering the season and they haven’t disappointed. They have played 3 teams ranked inside the top 190 to start the season and won those games by 29, 25, and 44 points. Their most recent win was 96-52 vs Wright State, a team that is ranked as the top team in the Horizon League and finished last year with an 18-6 record. UNC, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked inside the top 225 and has had some fairly close games winning by 7, 11 and 16 points. UNC is coming off an 18-11 season, however they were just 3-7 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 40 last year which we’d consider solid competition. Purdue is currently ranked 3rd in the country on Ken Pom. Purdue HC Matt Painter always has his teams playing solid, aggressive defense. After 3 games this year (vs better competition that UNC) the Boilers have allowed just 36% from the field and rank 19th in defensive efficiency. They have finished in the top 40 in defensive efficiency for 6 straight years under Painter. UNC, again vs all opponents ranked 200 or lower, are allowing almost 44% from the field (ranked 236th) and they have allowed at least 83 points in 2 of their 3 games. They now face a Purdue offense that has scored 90+ in every game this season. Purdue is the much better team here and we’ll lay the points. |
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11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -3.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for a very young Marquette team (352nd in experience – last in the nation) coming off a huge upset on Monday at home vs Illinois. The Golden Eagles were down 12 midway through the 2nd half and made a nice comeback to beat the Illini 67-66. Illinois played without their best player, All American center Cockburn. Illinois took 12 more shots, 7 more 3 point attempts, and creamed Marquette on the boards with a +20 differential. The Illini simply shot poorly hitting only 37% of their shots overall and 37% of their 3-point attempts. Prior to that win Marquette struggled at home vs New Hampshire (won by 5) and SIU Edwardsville (won by 11). In their game vs SIUE, who is ranked 321st nationally, Marquette never led by more than 13 in a game they were favored by 21. It was a 5 point game with 2:00 minutes remaining. SIUE followed that 11 point loss @ Marquette by losing to 357th ranked Chicago St by double digits. A Chicago St team that had a record of 10-92 the previous 4 seasons. Ole Miss has beaten two poor opponents handily. They are much more experienced starting 5 upperclassmen and they added some key transfers from Duke & Miami FL in the off season who are solid contributors already. They are a top notch defensive team (25th in defensive efficiency last year & 24th after 2 games this year) that will give this young Marquette team big problems on offense. We’ll lay the small number. |
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11-16-21 | Seton Hall +9 v. Michigan | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
#643 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +9 over Michigan, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This line opened up Michigan -10.5 and immediately dropped. We agree with the move as we pegged Seton Hall as a surprise team this season. The Pirates are 2-0 including a 36 point win over Ivy League favorite Yale who has a very solid and veteran team. The Hall is very deep this year with key transfers from Syracuse and USF joining the rotation. They already have 7 different players that have scored double digits this year (in 2 games) and head coach Willard will go 10 deep. They also match up well with Michigan’s top player, big man Dickinson, as the Pirates can run 4 solid big men at him throughout the game. Michigan is also 2-0 but they lost many key players from last year’s team (Livers, Smith, Brown, Wagner, and Davis) and might be a bit overrated entering the season. They struggled at home with Buffalo already this year winning by 12. The Bulls shot just 41% in that game and just 18% from 3 but were able to hang around despite Michigan making 54% of their shots and 40% of their 3’s. The Wolverines have also been terrible at the FT line this year making only 35 of their 62 attempts (56%) which could be their downfall in a tight game. Seton Hall keeps this close and covers. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor +4.5 over Gonzaga, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - Our power ratings have Gonzaga as a slight 2 point favorite on a neutral court so we feel there is value with Baylor here. We’ve spoken of the Bears Covid break a number of times this tourney and we feel that situation has this team undervalued. Prior to their 3-week hiatus we had Baylor and the Zags rated almost dead even with our power ratings. Baylor was 17-0 before their break with 15 of those wins coming by double digits and the other 2 coming by 8 points each. They were dominant in the Big 12, one of the top few leagues on the country. They lost much of their momentum not playing or practicing for the 3 week span in February and lost 2 games leading into the Big Dance. They have since regained their form and rolled through the NCAA tourney winning 5 games by an average of 15 PPG including topping 4 top 20 teams (Ken Pom ratings). They led by at least 18 points in 4 of their 5 tourney games and their largest deficit has been just 7 points. The Bears defense has been fantastic holding 4 of their 5 opponents under 1.00 points per possession and they’ve been lock down from beyond the arc allowing only 27% in the tourney. Offensively they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in 3-point percentage. The Bears have already faced 3 of the top 15 defenses in the nation in the NCAA tourney and scored 76, 78, and 81 points in those 3 games and averaged at least 1.19 PPP in each of those 3 games. They are tough to stop with 5 regulars hitting at least 39% from behind the arc. Gonzaga showed some vulnerability to a solid 3-point shooting team on Saturday barely getting by UCLA in OT and allowing the Bruins to hit 47% of their 3’s. UCLA was ranked 35th nationally in 3-point percentage and the Zags had trouble containing their guards and now they face the best 3-point shooting team in the nation with multiple top notch guards including All Americans Butler and Mitchell. Gonzaga hasn’t seen a team that shoots this well all season long. They have faced just ONE team this year that ranks inside the top 20 in three point shooting and that was Iowa early in the season and the Hawkeyes scored 88 points on them. Gonzaga is great offensively as well but the way the Baylor defense has been playing, we like them to be able to do enough on that end of the court to stay in this game the entire way. The way to potentially beat Gonzaga is to keep up with them offensively which UCLA nearly did on Saturday. Baylor is a better offensive team than UCLA and they’ll give the Bulldogs all they can handle here. The Bears haven’t been an underdog the entire season and their lowest number as a favorite was -4 and that was vs a difficult Big 12 slate. Now they are getting +4.5 which is a full 8.5 points off their lowest spread of the season. We fully believe Baylor has a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the generous points. |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -5 over Houston, Saturday at 5:14 PM ET - Houston has had an easy road to this point and we think it ends on Saturday. The Cougars NCAA tourney opponents have been Cleveland State (170th on Ken Pom), Rutgers (38th), Syracuse (41st), and Oregon State (48th). As you can see they have yet to play anyone ranked inside the top 38 nationally and 2 of those wins were tight beating Rutgers by 3 (Houston trailed by 10 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game) and Oregon State by 6. Baylor, on the other hand, has played 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 in the Dance (Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Villanova) and all of their wins have come by 9 points or more with 3 coming by double digits. Baylor has absolutely earned their way to this point while Houston has had a number of breaks. We’ve mentioned it a few times during the tourney but Baylor was a perfect 17-0 and considered the top team in the country with Gonzaga for much of the season. They went into a 3 week Covid break with no games and almost no practices during the month of February and they came out of that rusty losing 2 of their final 7 games through the Big 12 tourney. Well they are back to their early season form as we mentioned handling 3 very good teams with ease. While Houston has better overall defensive numbers on the season, we rate these 2 defenses about dead even. Baylor played the much tougher offensive schedule and struggled defensively when coming back from Covid which hurt their overall numbers. During the Dance they’ve allowed just 43% from the field and 3 of their 4 opponents have failed to get to 1.00 points per possession. The Cougars have also played very well defensively in the tournament but they have yet to face an offense ranked higher than 23rd in efficiency the Dance. Now they face a Baylor offense that is 3rd nationally in efficiency, 7th in eFG%, and 1st in 3-point percentage hitting a ridiculous 41% of their shots from deep as a team. The Bears have a big edge offensively in this game. Houston is not a very good shooting team ranking below 110th in eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point % nationally. They rely on offensive rebounding to get extra possessions and they are very good at it. The problem here is Baylor is the 7th best offensive rebounding team in the country so while Houston will do damage on the offensive glass, so will the Bears. No advantage there. Since their opening win of the tournament vs Cleveland State, the Cougars are averaging just 64 PPG in their last 3 which they were able to win by shutting down the opposing offense. That won’t happen here. Baylor is averaging 83 PPG on the season and they’ve scored at least 76 points in 3 of their 4 tourney games. We have a hard time believing Houston can keep up offensively in this game. While Houston has had a fairly easy run to the Final 4, they’ve also failed to play a team currently ranked inside the top 20 (Ken Pom) all season long! As we mentioned above, the Bears have played 3 of those teams (ranked inside top 20) in the Big Dance alone. Now the Cougs face #2 Baylor who is back at the top of their game. We’ll lay the points here as Baylor moves on to the National Championship game. |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC +8.5 over Gonzaga, Tuesday at 7:15 PM ET - We feel that besides Baylor, this USC team matches up as well as anyone with Gonzaga. We like the Trojans to give the undefeated Zags a run for their money tonight. We realize Gonzaga has beaten every team they’ve played, with the exception of West Virginia, by double digits. Let’s also keep in mind this USC team will be the best and most talented team the Zags have faced this season. Trojan center Mobley is projected as a top 3 pick in the NBA draft and will give Drew Timme and company all they can handle inside. The Zags score the vast majority of their points inside with 57% coming inside the arc (29th nationally) and just 25% from 3-point land (309th nationally). This USC defense is very good (4th nationally in defensive efficiency) and matches up perfectly ranking #1 in the country at defending inside the arc allowing opponents just 41% shooting. Mobley is a supreme defender and shot blocker and Gonzaga has not seen a team that defends inside like the Trojans. The Bulldogs offense has been great this year but they’ve only seen 2 defenses all SEASON ranked in the top 25 in efficiency (St Mary’s and Kansas). This USC defense is a level up from anything they’ve faced. Gonzaga has topped Oklahoma (7th best team in the Big 12) & Creighton (3rd best team in the Big East) their last 2 games. Impressive but how about USC’s current run? They have topped Drake (2nd best team in the MVC), Kansas, and Oregon all by double digits as well and by an average of 21 PPG! They are a very good offensive team (14th nationally in efficiency) that is peaking right now scoring 85 vs Kansas & 82 vs Oregon in their last 2 games. The Trojans are the 2nd tallest team in the nation giving them the height advantage which is a rarity vs Gonzaga. Not only will they give the Bulldogs a test defensively, USC is a team that can keep up on the scoreboard with their offense humming right now averaging 80 PPG, 52% shooting overall, and 47% from 3 over their last 5 games. The Pac 12 has shown to be a top notch conference with 3 teams landing in the Elite 8 and the Trojans are the best of the bunch in that league. This one goes to the wire and we’ll gladly take the points with USC. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
#653/654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 148.5 Points – Arkansas vs Baylor, Monday at 10 PM ET - Baylor’s defense was outstanding prior to their extended Covid interruption which lasted from February 2nd – February 23rd. Coming back from that, they didn’t play very well on the defensive end of the court. The Bears held only 2 of their next 7 opponents under 70 points. Prior to their Covid break they had held 14 of their 17 opponents to less than 70 points. Head coach Scott Drew mentioned that because they had to play so many games in a short period of time after coming back, they didn’t get to practice much which really affected their defensive efficiency. After the Big 12 tourney, the Bears had a full week to practice and their defense is back to elite form. They have allowed 55, 63, and 51 points in their 3 NCAA tourney games including games vs solid offensive teams Villanova & Wisconsin. None of those 3 opponents topped 0.98 points per possession and those 3 teams combined to shoot just 41%. Arkansas is known as a fast paced, high scoring team, however their defense is far superior to their offense. The Razors defense ranks 9th nationally in efficiency while their offense is 46th. They have allowed 66, 68, and 70 points in their 3 tournament games, all which went UNDER the total by a combined 30 points. Their most recent game vs a very fast paced and poor defensive team (Oral Roberts was the worst defensive team in the entire tourney) the final score was just 72-70. Both offenses have scored well under their season averages in the tourney with Arkansas putting up 75 PPG in 3 games (season average is 82 PPG) and Baylor scoring 72 PPG (season average is 83 PPG). Both offenses will be facing one of the better defenses they’ve seen this season and we expect this one to be played in the low 70’s at best. Take the UNDER. |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston -7.5 over Oregon State, 7:15 PM ET - Oregon State has been a fantastic story this tournament but the Cinderella story is about to end tonight. Clearly the Pac12 has represented extremely well in the post season but the Beavers were the worst of the bunch to get in. Consider this, the Beavers were just plus +6 points against Oklahoma State (ranked 63rd) and +7 versus Loyola Chicago (ranked 10th per KenPom) and now a slightly bigger dog against the 3rd ranked team in Houston. Even though Loyola had some better season statistics, they played a much weaker schedule than say Oklahoma State so let’s look specifically at that game for a comparison with this contest. Oregon State really struggled with Oklahoma State’s pressure defense for a large part of the game but the Cowboys literally couldn’t make a shot, shooting just 28% in the game. That was an aberration considering the Beavers rank 203rd in FG% defense. Houston is 90th in the nation in forcing turnovers, has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in college hoops and is #1 defensively in EFG%. The Oregon State will have a hard time getting going offensively against this defense, especially considering they are 213th in points scored per game, 226th in field goal percentage at just 43.2%. Houston has the 8th best offensive efficiency numbers in the nation in large part to their offensive rebounding which is 2nd in the country. Houston just beat a red hot Syracuse team handily and will get a double-digit win in this one. |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* USC -2 over Oregon, 9:45 PM ET - When these two teams last met USC beat Oregon 72-58. That was Oregon’s last regular season loss in their last eleven regular season games (they did lose to Oregon State in the conference tourney). The Trojans have a big edge in this game on the interior with the Mobley brothers who stand 6’10 and 7-feet tall. USC is 24th in rebounding compared to a Ducks team that ranks 253rd. USC is great defensively with the #1 ranked 2-point percentage defense in the country allowing just 41.4%. The Trojans have the 5th best defensive efficiency in the nation allowing just .88-points per possession. In comparison the Ducks rank 52nd in DEFF. Offensively these two teams are relatively even when if comes to efficiency ratings as the Ducks check in 10th, but USC is 15th. So, while the offenses are similar, the defenses are not with USC holding a sizable advantage. USC has covered 5 of the last six meetings and the favorite has covered 9 of the last eleven. We like USC and the short number here. |
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03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 136.5 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 136.5 LA Tech vs Mississippi State, 3 PM ET - This is an interesting situation as LA Tech played another SEC opponent in the opening round of this Tournament against Mississippi. We can make a great comparison from that game as Ole’Miss and Mississippi State have some very similar characteristics in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency along with pace of play. La Tech and Mississippi combined for 131 total points. The (MSU) Bulldogs are 301st in pace or tempo and want nothing to do with a faster paced game. Miss State is coming off a game against Richmond who is like LA Tech and those two combined for 135 total points. These two teams are both top 53 in terms of defensive efficiency ratings allowing less than .950-points per possession. Mississippi State has the 11th best EFG% defense in college basketball while Louisiana Tech ranks 43rd in that same category. It’s getting later in the tournament and pressure is starting to mount. We’ll bet UNDER here. |
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03-25-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 136.5 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 136.5 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky, 10 PM ET - This will be the third meeting of the season for these two Conference USA rivals with the two teams splitting the regular season clashes. We are not concerned with who will win this showdown but will invest in how many points they score. In the first two games at Western Kentucky these two combined for 130 and 121 Total points. Now we get a game on a neutral floor where neither team has any shooting advantages. When it comes to tempo the Hilltoppers are 210th in the nation in pace of play while LA Tech ranks 129th. Both teams are OK when it comes to offensive efficiency but what both do well is play defense. LA Tech was 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency allowing just .922 points per possession while WKU was 89th at .973PPP. Tech had the best effective field goal percentage D in the conference, Western was 3rd. The entire conference was 25th nationally (out of 32) conferences in efficiency ratings and 14th in pace. If we eliminate one OT game in this rivalry, we see they’ve combined to score 137 or less points in 5 of the last six meetings. Bet UNDER! |
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03-24-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Pepperdine OVER 151.5 | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 151.5 Coastal Carolina vs Pepperdine, 8 PM ET - We feel Vegas had the right number when they opened this and will take the added value with the Over here. Consider this, Pepperdine and Bellarmine just played and combined for 153 total points and Bellarmine is the 315th slowest paced team in the nation. Coastal is coming off an OT game against Stetson who ‘average’ in pace of play at 194th and those two schools scored 149 total points. What we have tonight are two teams that want to play fast. Coastal is 49th in pace of play while Pepperdine is 46th. Pepperdine has scored 80+ points in 6 of their last eight games including both games on this tournament. Coastal just played Bryant two games ago and those two teams combined for 175 total points and Bryant was a faster paced team much like Pepperdine. With both teams playing their 3rd game in 3 days we don’t see much defense being played here. |
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03-23-21 | Pepperdine -6 v. Bellarmine | Top | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Pepperdine -6 over Bellarmine, Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - Strength of schedule and the level of competition clearly favors the Waves of Pepperdine here as they’ve played the 83rd toughest schedule this season compared to Bellarmines’ 285th. Not only have the Knight’s played a weak schedule but against that weaker competition they still rank 295th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.081-points per possession. Bellarmine has the 333rd ranked defensive EFG% against at 55.1%. They are also the 336th worst team in the nation in defending 3-pt shooting. That doesn’t bode well against a Pepperdine team was 89th in offensive efficiency this season and 135th in EFG% offensive at 50.6%. The Wave can also defend with the 132nd rated defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.003PPP. That’s even more impressive considering the Wave play in the West Coast Conference which ranks 7th in EFG% offense and features 5 teams that rank in the top 101 in offensive efficiency. Pepperdine has some quality wins and close losses on their resume and are the superior team. Bellarmine has one win over a team ranked higher than 200th and that was Army (196th) last time out. Lay the points with Pepperdine. |
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03-22-21 | Maryland v. Alabama -5.5 | 77-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
#832 ASA PLAY 8* ON Alabama -5.5 over Maryland, Monday at 8:45 PM ET - The Terps basically play 6 players which will make this tough turnaround very tough after playing a very physical game vs UConn 2 days ago. All 5 of their starters played at least 33 minutes and 172 of the 200 total minutes available. Even though they won by 11, we consider them a bit fortunate to beat the Huskies as UConn took 65 shots and the Terps just 43. Maryland was destroyed on the boards with UConn rebounding nearly 50% of their misses which is a big reason they were +22 in shot attempts. Problem for the Huskies was, they shot horrendous making just 32% of their shots and only 5 of their 12 FT’s. Maryland, on the other hand, shot lights out hitting 52% of their shots and 50% of their 3-pointers. That’s was huge for the Terps who rely heavily on the 3-point shot with over 37% of their points in Big 10 play coming from behind the arc (most in the conference). No chance they shoot like that on Monday. First of all, with their starters playing nearly all of the minutes on Saturday, they could have dead legs here. Secondly, they face a fantastic defense in this one as the Tide rank 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 7th in the country defending the arc allowing just 28%. Bama was able to beat a dangerous Iona team by double digits on Saturday and they had 8 players log 20+ minutes so they should be the fresher team in this game. The Tide won despite not playing a great game offensively. They uncharacteristically missed 10 of their 23 FT’s (they shoot 72% on the season) and they hit only 5 three pointers on 16 attempts for just 31%. An off game for sure for a team that led the SEC making almost 38% of their 3’s and they were 2nd nationally making an average of 10.5 threes per game. Not only does the situation favor Alabama, the line value is with the Tide. Maryland just played Michigan (the 4th rated #1 seed) last weekend and they were an 8.5 point dog and lost by double digits. Now they play Alabama (the 1st rated #2 seed) and the number is just 5.5. Alabama covers and moves on to the Sweet 16. |
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03-22-21 | Abilene Christian v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 47-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -4.5 over Abilene Christian, Monday 5:15 PM ET - This line is slightly higher than we anticipated but it’s warranted based on how well the Bruins are currently playing. UCLA is one of those uber talented team that didn’t play up to their potential at times this season with nine losses. But when the Bruins have been right, they’ve been very good and the first two games in the tourney showed just how well this team can play. UCLA is 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.155-points per possession and 82nd in defensive efficiency allowing just .972PPP. What makes those numbers even more impressive is that it comes against the 34th toughest schedule in the nation. AS we’ve seen in the first two games of the Tourney the Bruins can go inside, make shots on the perimeter and are physical on the defensive end of the floor. Abilene Christian has some impressive statistics overall and play high pressure defense and lead the nation in forced turnovers. The Wildcats were 24th in DEFF allowing .913PPP but were 165th in OEFF. The problem with their overall numbers though is they’ve played the 315th WORST schedule in college basketball. In fact, the Wildcats DEFF numbers are VERY misleading as they’ve faced 12 teams that rank 270th or worse in offensive efficiency. Again, the Bruins rank 12th in that category. Abilene Christian is coming off maybe their biggest win in school history over Big Brother Texas and will let down here against a Bruins team capable of beating most teams in the tourney the way they are playing right now. |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oregon State +6.5 over Oklahoma State, 9:40 PM ET - We’ve been high on the Big 12 Conference all season long, but the Pac 12 Conference has played well in the Tourney with UCLA beatings Michigan State in the play in game, Oregon State, Colorado, USC, Colorado and Oregon all advancing. Oregon State was a surprise upset of Tennessee in the opening round, but they made us a believer and we also feel the Cowboys are a bit over-rated. Oregon State has won 4 straight against solid competition with wins over UCLA, Oregon, Colorado and Tennessee. The Beavers are 7-1 SU their last eight games. We have contrasting styles of play here as the Beavers (314th in pace) want to play slow while the Cowboys (33rd) want to play fast. Oklahoma State wasn’t as impressive in their opening round 69-60 win over Liberty and Cade Cunningham struggled shooting by going 3 of 14 from the field. Oklahoma State holds an advantage in defensive efficiency rating at 17th compared to Oregon State at 93rd but the Beavers have a slight advantage in offensive efficiency. It is going to be extremely hard for Oklahoma State to cover this number when they rank 325th in turnovers per game compared to Oregon State who ranks 54th. The Beavers are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog on a neutral court while Oklahoma State is just 1-5 ATS their last six tourney games as a chalk. Grab the points in what should be a close game. |
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03-20-21 | Maryland v. Connecticut UNDER 130 | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
#791/792 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130 Points – Connecticut vs Maryland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - For those of you that followed us closely this year, you’ll know we’ve been on a numbers of UNDERS with this Maryland team and done very well with those. The Terps are a slow paced, defensive minded team and there is no questioning that. Head coach Mark Turgeon has stressed to this team they will win with defense and they have responded. They rank 27th nationally in defensive efficiency and they are 317th in tempo. They have held 13 of their last 17 opponents below 70 points. Offensively the Terps only average 53 field goal attempts per game which is 329th in the country. UConn’s strength is also their defense. They rank 25th nationally in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed. They held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 68 points or less. UConn is also a very slow paced team ranking 301st. The Huskies defense the 3-point line very well which should negate the strength of Maryland’s offense which is shooting from deep. On the other side, UConn shoots very few 3’s and gets most of their points from inside the arc but that is Maryland’s defensive strength allowing just 46% shooting from 2-point range. This game should be a low possession, defensive battle. We look for this game to be played in the high 50’s / low 60’s which equals an UNDER. |
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03-20-21 | Drake v. USC UNDER 135.5 | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
#771/772 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 135.5 Points – Drake vs USC, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Bulldogs struggled to put point on the board on Thursday beating Wichita State 53-52. The Shockers ranked 82 nationally in defensive efficiency and were one of the smaller teams in the tournament (243rd in effective height). Now they face a USC team that is HUGE and plays great defense ranking 20th nationally in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG% defense. The only defense Drake saw this season that was on par with this USC defense was Loyola Chicago who is very good on that end of the court. In their 3 games vs the Ramblers, the Bulldogs scored 45 (in regulation), 54, and 65 points. They don’t take many 3 pointers and most of their scoring comes from inside the arc (59% of their points). The problem is the Trojans are fantastic and defending the 2-point shot (2nd nationally) and because of their massive height (7’0, 6’10, an 6’8 along the front line) they block a lot of shots and are tough to score over inside. Drake will struggle offensively again on Saturday. USC, same as Drake, doesn’t attempt many 3-point shots. On top of that, the Bulldogs defend the 3 well so we won’t see much scoring from behind the arc in this game. Both teams are slow paced so a limited number of possessions are expected. USC is a bad FT shooting team (64%) and Drake is just OK at 70%. Neither team fouls very often so most of the scoring should be done inside the arc which limits points in a low possession game. The Bulldogs when at full strength vs mainly average defenses in the MVC were solid offensively. However since the loss of Hemphill & Penn, two of their main offensive threats, they’ve averaged just 66 PPG over their last 10. Hemphill was back last night but is on a limited minute role (10 minutes vs Wichita) and Penn is still out. This one is an UNDER play for us. |
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03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +1.5 v. LSU | 61-76 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
#781 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Bonaventure +1.5 over LSU, Saturday at 1:45 PM ET - Big coaching mismatch here in our opinion. St Bonnies head coach Schmidt is one of the best in the country. He’s been at STB for 14 years and took over a program that was 24-88 the 4 years previous to him taking the job and turned them into a perennial A10 contender. They were the best team in the Atlantic 10 all season long and they won the conference tourney rolling over the 2 other top teams in the league (St Louis & VCU) by double digits to close out as A10 tournament champions. LSU has a bunch of talent each year as HC Will Wade can recruit (although they are under investigation under his watch) but they underperform quite often. This year they are very young (329th in experience) and rated as the 4th best team in the SEC. The Tigers just went through a grueling tourney run losing to Bama in the finals which could take a lot out of this team. LSU is a historically a team that will overlook a team like St Bonnies, especially coming off 3 games in 3 days last weekend. The Tigers love to run and will be stymied here by a STB team that is one of the slowest in the nation. We expect the Bonnies to control the pace and frustrate this young LSU team. STB is a veteran team with 4 junior starters (all started last year) and a fantastic defensively ranking 17th nationally in defensive efficiency. The only 3 teams in the SEC that ranked higher than St Bonnies on the defensive end were Bama, Tennessee, and Arkansas and LSU had a 2-3 record vs those teams. LSU’s defense has been lacking for much of the year (125th nationally) and facing a St Bonaventure team whose starters all average 12.7 PPG or more will be a problem. For most, this line of LSU -1.5 may seem really easy to take the SEC team. We have STB ranked higher than LSU and we expect them to win. The Bonnies have been underdogs just 4 times this year and covered 3 of those games. Take the points. |
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03-19-21 | Rutgers -1.5 v. Clemson | 60-56 | Win | 100 | 37 h 7 m | Show | |
#753 ASA PLAY ON 8* Rutgers -1.5 over Clemson, Friday at 9:20 PM ET - Going with the Big 10 (stronger league) over a down ACC this season. The Scarlet Knights finished 10-10 in the Big 10 but we think they are undervalued having played an extremely tough schedule (7th SOS nationally). They currently rank as the 8th best team in the conference but 34th nationally which obviously shows just how good the Big 10 was this season. They are very good defensively (18th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they score mainly inside the arc with 60% of their coming from 2-point range (12th most nationally). We like that scenario when playing at a new NBA venue (Bankers Life Fieldhouse home of the Pacers) as it’s often more difficult to shoot from outside at the bigger arenas. That’s the direct opposite from this Clemson team who has to shoot well from beyond the arc to have a chance to win. The Tigers are 27th nationally scoring almost 40% of their points from 3-point land yet they aren’t a great shooting team (130th in 3 point%). Rutgers defends the arc well so this should be a tough game offensively for Clemson. The Tigers were a shaky team away from home winning just 2 true road games this season @ Wake and @ Miami – 2 of the 3 worst teams in the ACC. Rutgers had a losing road record in Big 10 play which is not surprising, however they did beat Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota all on the road. The only thing where Rutgers is at an obvious disadvantage is at the FT line where they make just 63%. However, Clemson goes to the FT line very infrequently (336th nationally) so we don’t expect a big advantage if any for the Tigers at the stripe. Rutgers is the 10 seed yet favored over the 7-seed Tigers for a reason. They are the better team in most aspects of the game. We fully expect the Knights to win so we’ll lay the small number. |
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03-19-21 | Liberty +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 60-69 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 27 m | Show | |
#747 ASA PLAY ON 8* Liberty +7.5 over Oklahoma State, Friday at 6:25 PM ET - Liberty is the exact type of team that can pull an upset over OSU. The Cowboys love to get out and run but Liberty will slow this game to a snail’s pace. They rank 348th nationally in tempo and know they cannot run with OSU. They will walk it up at every chance. The Flames are also a great shooting team. They rank 4th nationally in eFG%, 10th in 3-point%, 9th in 2-point% and 20th in FT%. They have 5 players in their rotation that shoot at least 39% from behind the arc. They obviously play in a lower tier conference (ASUN) where the competition isn’t great but they are by far the best team in the league with a 14-2 record and 23-5 overall. They also played some Power 5 teams in the non-conference beating both South Carolina & Mississippi and they gave Missouri all they could handle on the road. OSU is very good but very young as well. This will be the first NCAA tournament appearance for every player on the team as well as head coach Boynton. The Cowboys weren’t great this year vs teams that slowed them down like Liberty will do. The 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 12 were Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State and Oklahoma. They lost both games vs TCU, beat KSU by 7, went to OT both games with Tech, and beat OU by 4 each game. Keep in mind that Liberty is ranked higher (97th) than both TCU & Kansas State. The Flames head coach McCay has been a D1 head man since 1997 and in his last 3 years at Liberty his teams have a combined 82-16 record. Two years ago his Liberty team knocked off Mississippi State in the opening round of the Big Dance and gave Virginia Tech all they could handle in the 2nd game. They’ve been off for 12 days to get ready while facing an OSU team that had a grueling 3 game run in the Big 12 tourney facing Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas over the weekend. Be careful here if you’re the Cowboys. This one will be tight. |
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
#739 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +16.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - We love to look long and hard at big underdogs that can score points. That’s what we have here. ORU averages 82 PPG and ranks 13th nationally in scoring. They shoot it very well especially from deep where the average nearly 40% from beyond the arc (11th nationally). They can also steal some points on the FT line when they do get there as they hit nearly 83% from the stripe as a team (1st nationally). We think OSU will have a tough time pulling away in this game. The Buckeyes are coming off a rough and emotional Big Ten tourney run playing 4 games in 4 days and losing to Illinois in OT in the finals. Now they get an early game on Friday while Oral Roberts has had 10 days off to rest, practice, and get ready for their opener. The Golden Eagles have lost by more than this spread just once all season long and that was in the season opener @ Missouri way back in November. They were competitive in their games vs high D1 teams this year losing by 5 @ Oklahoma State, by 5 @ Wichita State, by 11 @ Arkansas, and by 14 @ Oklahoma, all NCAA tourney teams. If OSU has a weakness, it’s definitely their defense as they ranked dead last this year in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency (all games). They are also average at best at defending the arc so we don’t see them slowing down Oral Roberts in this game. The Buckeyes will put up points for sure, but the Eagles, even if they get down by more than the spread, will have the ability to score late if needed to get back in the game. The Buckeyes simply want to win and advance and get some rest for their starters if they are up double digits late in the game. Oral Roberts scores 70+ in this one and covers the big number. |
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts v. Ohio State OVER 156 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
#739/740 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 156 Points – Oral Roberts vs Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - This one should definitely be a high scoring game. Oral Roberts ranks 13th nationally in scoring averaging 82 PPG on the season. They love to play fast ranking 47th nationally in tempo. The Golden Eagles are a great 3-point shooting team (11th nationally) hitting almost 40% and the are the best FT shooting team in the country at 83%. Ohio State ranks 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and will be by far the best offense ORU has seen this season. There are some very solid offensive teams in the Summit League, but none ranked inside the top 40 in the country. Even with that, the Eagles allowed 75 PPG in conference play. The 3 top offensive teams in the Summit are South Dakota State, South Dakota, and this ORU team. In their 4 games vs SDSU & South Dakota the totaled 189, 178, 175, and 170 points. ORU’s defense ranks 285th nationally in defensive efficiency and the Buckeyes have not seen a defense this leaky in a LONG time. For comparison’s sake, the worst defensive teams in the Big 10 this season were the Buckeyes (79th nationally), followed by Minnesota (51st), Iowa (50th), and Penn State (49th). OSU averaged 77 PPG in their games vs those 3 opponents and they are all FAR superior defensively to this Oral Roberts team. The Eagles played 5 games this season vs tournament teams (Missouri, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Wichita St) and allowed an average of 85 PPG in those games and all 5 opponents were ranked outside the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency (OSU is 4th as we mentioned above). The Buckeyes weakness is definitely their defense which was last in the conference this year in efficiency. They also are not great at defending the arc (191st nationally) which will be a problem here vs a great 3 point shooting team. OSU’s tempo numbers aren’t overly fast, however, they have no problem playing fast and did so when facing the up tempo teams in the Big 10. Versus the 4 Big 10 teams ranked inside the top 100 in tempo, OSU averaged 152 PPG in those contests and remember all of those teams have much better defenses than Oral Roberts. OSU get’s to at LEAST the mid 80’s here and we have no doubt Oral Roberts will top 70. Take the OVER. |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State UNDER 135 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
#717/718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135 Points – UCLA vs Michigan State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Bruins step into this game as one of the slowest teams in the country ranking 332nd in tempo. MSU was one of the slower paced teams in the Big 10 (9th) and they sit in the middle of the pack nationally. However, they have no problem playing a slow down game and that’s what we expect tonight as UCLA gets the tempo they prefer. Neither team takes or makes many 3-pointers with both ranking outside the top 250 in percentage of points from beyond the arc. That’s always something we look at when taking an UNDER. Limit points from beyond the arc = lower scoring game. MSU is not a good shooting team period. They ranked 13th in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency, 3-point percentage, and eFG percentage. Down the stretch Sparty was held under 60 points in 3 of their final 5 games and only reached 1.00 points per possession once in their final 5. They averaged just 64 PPG in Big 10 play and only topped 70 points 6 times in 21 conference games including the tournament. The Bruins had better offensive numbers averaging 71 PPG in Pac 12 play but keep in mind that conference has nowhere near the defensive prowess the Big 10 has. In fact, MSU ranked 8th overall in Big 10 defensive efficiency (all games) but 32nd nationally. The Spartans defensive numbers were good enough to rank 3rd in the Pac 12 right on par with Colorado (29th nationally) and USC (19th nationally), the top 2 defensive teams in that league. In UCLA’s 4 games vs those 2 opponents, the combined scores were 114, 127, 127, and 131 points. This one will be played in the 60’s and we like the UNDER. |
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03-18-21 | Norfolk State +3 v. Appalachian State | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 39 h 47 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Norfolk State +3 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 8:40 PM ET - App State made a great run through their conference tourney catching lightning in a bottle as some teams do this time of year. They played 4 games in 4 days in the Sun Belt tourney to win the title but let’s not forget this team was ranked as the 5th best team in the Sun Belt entering that tournament and actually had a losing record during the regular season. They also lost 3 times this season to Troy who is ranked 305th nationally and is the worst team in the Sun Belt so App State has been far from reliable. They’ve had some rest now but this is a very thin team which can cause problems in a tournament setting. Their starters played 733 out of the 850 possible minutes in those 4 tourney games that were all very tight. Norfolk steps in from the MEAC, which isn’t a strong league, but they were the best team in their conference all season. The Spartans have had off since Saturday so they’ll be rested as well. They are also deep (15th nationally in bench minutes) and experienced with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up and multiple upperclassmen coming off the bench. Their head coach Jones has been at Norfolk for 8 years and had only one losing season (solid program). No post-season last year for anyone but in 2019 the Spartans made the NIT and beat Alabama before losing to Colorado. They are a good sized team, solid rebounding, one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation (39th) and they don’t turn the ball over very much. This one has upset written all over, although we wouldn’t call it that as we have this game rated as dead-even. We’ll take the points with Norfolk State. |
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03-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. St. Mary's UNDER 125 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 37 m | Show |
#707/708 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 125 Points – St Marys vs Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET - NOTE – All NIT games are being played in Frisco, TX so no home court advantage. The strength of both of these teams are their defenses. St Marys ranks 9th nationally in defensive efficiency and WKU ranks 81st. Both offenses rank outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with Ste Marys sitting down near 200th in that category. Neither team likes to play at a fast pace, especially the Gaels who rank 347th in tempo. If you take out their 3 games vs Gonzaga (#1 in the country in offensive efficiency) the St Marys defense allowed just 59 PPG in conference play. Offensively they only averaged 59 PPG in WCC play shooting just 39% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc. They rank 328th nationally in 3-point shooting at under 30% for the season. Needless to say this offense isn’t any where close to the sharp shooting teams St Marys has had in the past. The only 2 defenses in the WCC that rank in the top 100 are BYU & Gonzaga. In those games St Marys averaged just 56 PPG in their 5 meetings with those 2 teams. The Hilltopper defense also ranks in the top 100 and was outstanding all year allowing 70 points or more just 4 times in 17 Conference USA games. St Marys offense efficiency (198th) would rank 10th in CUSA this season so we don’t look for much from them on offense. CUSA doesn’t have a single defense ranked in the top 30 in efficiency so this will be a better defense by a wide margin than anyone WKY has faced in conference play (St Marys is 9th nationally as mentioned above). Neither team relies heavily on shooting 3’s (both accumulate less than 29% of their points from beyond the arc) and neither team fouls very often. So it looks like the majority of points will be scored from inside the arc which favors the Under. This sets up to be a low possession game with defenses running the show. We think there is a very solid chance that neither team reaches 60 points here so while it’s set very low at 125, there is a reason for that and we like the UNDER. |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 150.5 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 151.5 Points – Ohio State vs Illinois, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET - This total is set too high for a Big Ten Championship game. We expect both defenses to be on top of their game with a title on the line. Illinois ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. In Big 10 play they allowed just 68 PPG on 41% shooting. OSU’s overall defensive numbers on the season are not as strong, however after losing 4 in a row to end the regular season, head coach Holtmann went back to the basics and focused on defense. It worked as they have been lights out on that end of the court in the Big 10 tourney allowing their 3 opponents to shoot just 38% combined. On Saturday they held a very potent Michigan offense (5th nationally in offensive efficiency) to just 67 points. The Wolverines held OSU to just 68 points and the Illini defense is definitely on par with Michigan’s (1st and 2nd in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency). On offense, Illinois takes fewer 3 pointers than any team in the league (25% of their points from deep) and OSU is in the middle of the pack (33% of points from 3). So we don’t expect a barrage of threes going up in this game an when they do, remember this is OSU’s 4th game in 4 days and Illinois 3rd game in 3 days so legs will be a factor when launching from deep. This is the Buckeyes THIRD highest total of the entire season and the other 2 were vs Iowa who is fast paced, the #1 offensive efficiency team in the Big 10 and not great defensively. The Illini had 6 totals this season set at 150 or higher and 5 of those games went UNDER the total. We expect the Big 10 Championship game to be a lower scoring game as it always has been. Teams know each other very well and are closing out a long, physically and emotionally draining weekend. Since the Big 10 tourney began in 1998 the average total combined points per game has been just 126.5. NOT ONE of those 22 games has topped 151 points and today’s total is 151.5. UNDER for us on this one. |