Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas City -7 over Tennessee, Sunday at 3 PM ET The Titans are obviously on a great roll winning back to back road playoff games as an underdog. However, now they are in a very tough situation playing their 4th consecutive road game vs a team that is even hotter than they are as the Chiefs have won and covered 7 straight games. It’s very rare to see a team playing their 4th straight road game spanning into the playoffs. In fact, out database, which goes back to 1980, reveals it has happened just 4 times and those road teams are 0-4 SU & ATS in that fourth game. They’ve also had the equivalent of 3 straight road playoff games entering this one as their final regular season game @ Houston was a must win or the Titans would not be in the playoffs. That takes a toll physically and mentally and that’s why the fourth game has come up all zeros in the past. KC on the other hand had a week off heading into last week’s 51-31 win over Houston and will be playing again at home. Just a huge situational edge for KC. In their two wins thus far, the Titans were outgained in both (by a combined 265 yards) and QB Tannehill has thrown for only 71 & 83 yards. As good as RB Henry has been, we believe Tennessee will need to do much more offensively in order to keep up with the Chiefs. Last week the Titan defense faced a whopping 92 offensive snaps which is the equivalent of about a game and a half so that added to their tough road situation should have this defense tired by the 2nd half. Baltimore had plenty of chances offensively as the Ravens were shut out on downs FOUR times inside Tennessee territory including 3 times inside the 21 yard line. The Ravens only punted ONCE the entire game. The Titans were very fortunate in our view. KC’s last loss was back in November and it was vs this Tennessee team. The Titans won that game 35-32 but the Chiefs dominated the stat sheet rolling up 530 yards to only 370 for Tennessee. The Titans scored on a long fumble return and put up the game winning TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game. KC also missed 2 FG’s in the 4th quarter and held a 9 point lead in that game with around 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. KC QB Mahomes put up 446 yards passing and 3 TD’s in that game and we expect another huge effort here. Despite this number sitting at 7, we still feel the value is with KC. Speaking of that first meeting, KC was favored by 5 @ Tennessee (late November) and now laying just 7 at home. Last week Tennessee was +10 @ Baltimore so we would expect it to be about the same here, especially with the Titans travel situation being on the road for basically a full month now. While Tennessee is getting most of the accolades for how they have been playing down the stretch and in the playoffs, let’s remember that KC has won 7 straight by an average of 17 PPG. They also just beat the team that WON the AFC South (same division as Tennessee) by 20 points. We think the Titans run ends here and KC wins by double digits. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Clemson (+) over LSU, Monday at 8 PM ET - After watching what happened during semi final weekend, we knew we’d get some value on Clemson in the Championship game. We just didn’t think it would be this much value. Clemson was favored by -2 with the line rising to -3 versus an Ohio State team that many felt was the best team in the country for the entire season, better than LSU. Now that same Clemson team is getting anywhere from 5 to 6 points versus LSU just a few weeks later? This is an absolute buy low (Clemson), sell high (LSU), spot for us. Most bettors are greatly affected by what they see most recently. They watched LSU roll over an Oklahoma team that in hindsight really had no right being in that game. They also watched Clemson get behind a great Ohio State team and battle their way back to a close win. So based on that LSU is going to crush Clemson right? A massive 80% of wagers have come in on LSU because of that recency bias. We love taking the contrarian viewpoint to go against the public here. Let’s first remember that Clemson’s opponent (Ohio State) was light years better than LSU’s opponent (Oklahoma). We liked the Sooners getting 2 TD’s in that game, however in hindsight they had a number of close games (5 Big 12 wins by 7 points or less) in a conference that simply turned out to be not very good. The Big12 won a grand total of ONE bowl game with 5 losses. A very impressive win for the Tigers but we’re pretty certain Clemson or Ohio State would have done the same thing if facing Oklahoma. We were impressed with Clemson’s resolve getting down 16-0 against the Buckeyes and rallying to win with a late TD drive. We’ve heard the narrative that OSU outplayed Clemson in the game and deserved to win. We disagree. While OSU did outgain the Tigers by 99 yards they also ran 23 more offensive snaps and still lost. On a yards per play basis Clemson outgained Ohio State 6.7 YPP to 6.0 YPP. As we stated a few weeks ago, the Clemson players and coaches are very familiar with this situation. This will be the 4th time in the last 5 years they’ve been in the National Championship game – winning 2 of those. This is eerily similar to last year’s National Championship when Alabama was a 6-point favorite and came in with an unbeatable offense averaging 48 PPG (same as LSU this year) and very few gave Clemson a chance. Of course the Tigers went on to roast the Crimson Tide 44-16 outgaining Bama 7.5 YPP to 6.0 YPP. LSU QB Joe Burrow is obviously outstanding. But let’s not forget Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is now 25-0 as a starter, has a National Championship under his belt, and is considered a generational talent that will almost positively be the #1 pick in the NFL draft when eligible. The underdog in the National Championship is now 6-0 ATS the last 6 years and 14-7 ATS the last 21 seasons. The oddsmakers sent out lines about a month ago on potential National Championship match ups and in this one they had Clemson as a 3-point favorite. Now they are getting nearly a full TD based almost solely on the results from their semi final games. Remember, the oddsmakers felt Clemson was 2 to 3 points better than OSU and they were correct with Clemson winning by 6. So if OSU would have won their game vs Clemson, based on the number versus the Tigers they would be between a 7 to 9 point dog against LSU. I’m sure you see our point that LSU is now overvalued. Are they a TD better than the two other teams in the country considered in the top 3? No way. We anticipate this game being very close. Getting points is a bonus and gives us the opportunity to win even if Clemson loses the game. We don’t think they will. We’ll call for Clemson to win their 3rd National Championship on 4 years. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET With all of their injuries in the offensive backfield, the Seahawks have become a one trick pony. With zero semblance of a running game, they will have to rely almost solely on the passing game and Russell Wilson. While Wilson has had a fantastic season, his running game with RB Carson, Penny, and Prosise (all out) they did next to nothing on the ground the last week with just 19 yards rushing from their RB’s. They caught a break last week with Eagle QB Wentz going out with a concussion in the 1st quarter leaving Philly to rely on backup QB McCown who had thrown 5 passes the entire season. Even with that the Eagles offense was able to push the ball inside the Seattle 25 yard line on all 5 second half possessions but were unable to finish drives with McCown at the helm. This is also a terrible spot for Seattle as two weeks ago they were in a playoff type game vs SF that came down to the final play, last week they traveled to the east coast and held on with Philly threatening late, and now they are on the road again. They are also banged up on the offensive line with a number of starters sitting out practices this week. Defensively the Seahawks rank in the bottom third of the NFL in most key categories and if you thrown out their game last week vs an Eagles offense that was very limited, they have allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Green Bay was able to rest last week and most of their players are at 100%. They are much more balanced offensively with QB Rodgers and RB Jones able to mix it up. Green Bay’s defense has also really stepped it up down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to 20 points or less. Wilson and Rogers have faced off 8 times in their careers with the home team winning all 8 games. Also NFL home teams in the Divisional round (home & rest) have proven to have a huge advantage with a 25-7 SU record over the last 8 seasons. We like GB to win this game by a TD or more. |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -102 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #280 |
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01-05-20 | Vikings +9 v. Saints | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +9 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line is way too high in our opinion. It should be under 7 according to our power ratings. To give you an idea of what we are talking about, this is the 5th highest spread of the SEASON for New Orleans. The only teams they faced in which they were laying more than 8 points were Carolina (twice), Atlanta, and Arizona, all teams with losing records. For comparison’s sake, just a few weeks ago the Saints were favored by 8 here vs Indianapolis who finished with a 7-9 record. On the other side, this is by far the largest underdog role Minnesota has faced this year. They were +2.5 @ Seattle (a playoff team) in December and +3 @ Green Bay who is the #2 seed in the NFC. Recent results have pushed this number too high. Minnesota closed out the season with 2 losses as they played their worst game of the season @ home vs Green Bay and then lost to Chicago but sat their starters as they were already locked into their playoff position. New Orleans closed out the season with 3 easy wins but 2 were vs teams who had nothing to play for including Carolina last week who had completely packed it in and had already started interviewing coaches after firing Ron Rivera. Their lone semi impressive win over that 3 game stretch was beating Tennessee. However even in that game the Titans jumped out to a 14 point lead but turned the ball over 4 times allowing the Saints to come back and win that one (Saints were outgained). That win over the Titans was their only win by more than 7 points vs a team that ended the season with a winning record. The Vikings have played very tight even in their losses with the exception of their game vs Green Bay a few weeks ago. If you throw that game out, Minnesota’s losses have come by an average of 5 PPG. Despite New Orleans winning 13 games and Minnesota 10, these two are almost dead even in point differential on the season (Saints +117 & Vikings +104) and Minnesota actually has outgained their opponents by +0.6 YPP compared to New Orleans +0.5 YPP. We anticipate a close game here and getting more than a TD is a gift in our opinion. Take Minnesota on Sunday. |
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01-04-20 | Bills +3 v. Texans | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET Despite winning the weak AFC South, we feel Houston is the worst team in the AFC playoffs. Football Outsiders Efficiency rating agrees with us as they have the Texans rated 19th overall in the NFL which is the lowest rating of any team in the playoffs, not just the AFC. They have been outgained on the season, outscored on the season, and their defense is the worst unit in the playoffs. Speaking of defense, we get a huge edge on that side of the ball with the Bills who rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing just 298 yards which is nearly a full 100 yards less than a Houston defense that ranks 28th in total defense. The Buffalo defense allowed more than 21 points only 3 times the entire season and they gave up 17 or less in 10 of their 16 games. We anticipate the Texans struggling on offense here. They faced only 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 10 at Football Outsiders and scored 7 vs Baltimore, 23 vs Tampa (16 points from the offense), and 28 vs New England. Their 28 points vs the Patriots was a bit of an aberration as Houston was actually held to just 276 total yards. Many may look at the Bills offense and see them having problems here as they average just 19 PPG. On top of that over their last 4 they have not topped 17 points. However, over their last 4 games they have faced 4 defenses ranked inside the top 7 in the NFL, thus the struggles as of late. When facing a defense ranked 20th or lower (Houston ranks 28th) Buffalo averaged 25 PPG. They run the ball very well (8th in the NFL at 128 YPG) and they are facing a Houston defense that allows 4.8 YPC (27th in the NFL). On a yards per play basis, the Houston defense ranks dead last in the NFL (tied with Cincinnati) allowing 6.1 YPP. These two met here last year in the regular season and the Texans prevailed 20-13. The game was tied at 13-13 with under 2:00 minutes remaining and Buffalo had the ball. A pick 6 from the Texan defense with 1:28 remaining gave Houston the point margin. The Bills are much better than a year ago and we think they go in and win this game. Small underdogs of 1 to 3 points in the Wildcard round are a money making 35-20 ATS since 1978 (64%). Take the points here. |
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01-02-20 | Tennessee v. Indiana OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Indiana Hoosiers vs Tennessee Volunteers, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #293 |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (-) over Boston College, Thursday at 3 PM ET - We really like this situation for a solid Cincy team. The Bearcats have just 3 losses on the season with one coming vs Ohio State and they lost their final 2 games of the season both at Memphis on back to back weekends. Those are far from terrible losses as those 2 teams combined for a 25-1 regular season record. OSU is obviously one of the top few teams in the nation and Memphis, who had 1 loss on the season, gave a very good Penn State team all they could handle in their bowl game. Both of their final 2 losses @ Memphis were games that went to the wire and the yardage was almost dead even in both. One of those losses Cincinnati was forced to use freshman QB Bryant because starting QB Ridder was injured. Speaking of Ridder, his shoulder was not 100% down the stretch and the Bearcat passing game was not great because of that. However, with the extended time off our word is that Ridder is back to 100% which will make this offense much more dynamic. For comparison’s sake, if we throw out the OSU game in which Cincy was shutout, they averaged 37 PPG when Ridder was healthy. Over the final 4 games when his shoulder was not right, they put up only 21 PPG. We expect them to have a very good day offensively vs a BC defense that ranks 125th nationally in total defense allowing 481 YPG. The BC offense relies very heavily on the run. After starting QB Brown went out with a season ending injury in mid October, the Eagles have averaged only 131 YPG passing. They were successful running the ball this year (267 YPG) the problem is, RB Dillon was the main reason for that as he rushed for 1900 yards and 15 TD’s. He is not playing in this game as he prepares for the NFL draft which subtracts easily their top offensive weapon. BC is also in transition as head coach Adazzio has already been fired, offensive coordinator Bajakian has moved onto Northwestern, and WR coach Gunnell is coaching the team as they wait for Ohio State DC Hafley to take over after this game. Cincy is excited to be playing a Power 5 opponent, they have the MUCH better defense, and no turmoil with their coaches. Lay the TD here with Cincinnati. |
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12-31-19 | Texas v. Utah UNDER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Texas Longhorns vs Utah Utes, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #262 |
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12-31-19 | Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
#255 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida State (+) over Arizona State, Tuesday at 2 PM ET - ASU will be playing this game without their 2 top offensive weapons as RB Benjamin (1,100 yards rushing and 10 TD’s) and WR Aiyuk (1,200 yards receiving and 8 TD’s) are both sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Their backup RB’s have COMBINED for only 85 yards on the ground this season. For a team that ranks 89th in total offense and 94th in scoring offense, they can ill afford to lose their top 2 playmakers. Many may expect that FSU might be distracted with their coaching situation but we argue that ASU is the team that will be at a bigger disadvantage in that regard. FSU fired Willie Taggart but the interim coach Odell Haggins has been on the Seminole staff since 1994 and coached their final 3 regular season games this year. He also led them to a bowl win in 2017 in a similar situation. The players really like Haggins and he’ll be on new head coach Mike Norvell’s staff next year. ASU, on the other hand, will be playing this game without their offensive coordinator (who was fired at the end of the regular season) AND their defensive coordinator left 10 days ago to take the head coaching job at New Mexico. FSU will also be without their top RB Akers, however they are more experienced behind him with his back up Laborn with 300 yards rushing and 4 TD’s on the season. FSU QB Blackmon has thrown for nearly 5,000 career yards and 40 TD’s should find plenty of openings vs an ASU pass defense that ranks 114th in pass defense. Blackmon will also have his full complement of weapons, including top WR Terry who has 1,800 yards receiving and 16 TD’s over the last 2 seasons. Arizona State has been a money burner in the favorite role going 0-8 ATS their last 8 in that role. This year alone they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite losing half of those games outright. FSU is happy to be back in a bowl after missing the post-season last year for the first time since 1981. We expect them to play well here and we feel an upset brewing. |
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12-30-19 | Illinois v. California -6 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
#250 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON California (-) over Illinois, Monday at 4:00 PM ET - We obviously following Illinois very closely being in Big 10 country. While they step into this game with a 6-6 record, this is NOT a .500 type team. They were extremely fortunate to get wins in a number of games this year. They beat Wisconsin, but were drastically outgained and caught the Badgers coming off Iowa with OSU next. Even with that Wisconsin led basically the entire game and made a number of key mistakes in the final 6:00 minutes to lose that one. Versus Michigan State they trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter and had everything possible go their way in that 3 point win despite getting outgained by more than 100 yards. The Illini were rolled 29-10 in their season finale vs a Northwestern team that hadn’t won a conference game entering that contest. In conference play, this Illinois team was outgained by nearly 400 yards vs Nebraska, by nearly 300 vs a poor Northwestern offense, by 239 vs Minnesota, by 233 vs Michigan, and by more than 100 vs Wisconsin and Michigan State. You get the point. For the conference season the Illini averaged 290 YPG while giving up 440 YPG. In non-conference play they lost at home to Eastern Michigan, struggled to beat a terrible UConn team that finished the year 2-10, and topped Akron who might be the worst team in all of college football. While we feel Illinois is drastically overvalued, this Cal team is undervalued in our opinion. A glance at the full season offensive stats doesn’t tell the entire story. Sure the Bears struggled offensively, however, when QB Chase Garbers started and played the entire game (he was injured for about half the season) this California team was a perfect 6-0. With Garbers at QB, the Bears started the season 4-0. He was injured in the 5th game vs Arizona State with the score tied 7-7 and they went on to lose that game. They were 1-5 SU without him under center (including the ASU loss) and Garbers came back to start the final 2 games which were wins @ Stanford and @ UCLA putting up over 400 total yards in each of those games. They averaged 25 PPG with Garbers under center and 15 PPG when he was unable to play. This Cal defense is good enough to hold Illinois in check. As much heat as Cal’s offense received this year for being lethargic, they averaged more YPG than the Illinois offense did this year. The Illini struggle to move the ball through the air averaging just 177 YPG (110th nationally) and the will have problems getting their running game going vs a Cal defense that ranks 26th vs the rush. Cal’s defense played very well against some potent offenses this year holding Oregon to 17 points, Washington St to 20 points, UCLA to 18 points and Ole Miss to 20 points. We have advantages on offense and defense in this game and its being played in San Francisco which is only 14 miles from the Cal campus giving them the location edge as well. We have a feeling the Illinois, playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2014, might just be happy to have gotten to this point. Cal, on the other hand, is very focused on winning this one after losing in OT vs TCU in their bowl game last year. The Bears win and cover this one. |
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12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Seattle +3.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET This line is a big time overreaction to what happened last week. Our power ratings have this line at dead even yet we’re getting more than a FG with Seattle at home. The Seahawks lost last week at home vs Arizona (we were on the Cards) in a game that really wasn’t that important for Seattle. Even with a win over Arizona last week, this game vs San Fran would have been for all the marbles in the NFC West. These two met on November 11th with the Niners going off as a 6 point favorite in that game and Seattle winning 27-24 in OT. Now the Niners are laying more than a FG on the road? We understand Seattle’s cluster injuries at the RB spot but bringing in Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, 2 players who know the system and the plays, we’re guessing their running game will be fine on Sunday. Not to mention they will be facing a SF defense that has been trending downward for over a month now allowing 46, 29, and 31 points the last 3 weeks alone. Seattle had some key defensive players sitting out last week with injuries but it looks like many will return this week including DE Clowney and LB Griffin. This is the first time Seattle has been a home dog this year. For comparison’s sake the Seahawks were -5 here vs New Orleans and -3 vs Baltimore. That puts this number into perspective. The Seahawks have been a huge money maker as a home underdog going 13-2 ATS in that role since 2011. They’ve also owned this NFC West series winning 13 of the last 15 games vs the 49ers (12-3 ATS) with SF’s only wins during that stretch coming by 2 points and 3 points in OT. We’ll take the points. |
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12-29-19 | Eagles v. Giants +4 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +4 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Many will be jumping on Philly here because they have to win to clinch the NFC East title. Please keep in mind that many teams that have to win, don’t win. We give the Giants a good shot at the upset here. The Eagles beat Dallas last week but let’s face it, they were not playing well coming into that game. In their previous 3 games before facing off with Dallas, they lost to Miami, beat this NYG team in OT, and scored with under 30 seconds left to beat Washington. Not overly impressive. As we mentioned these two met a few weeks ago in what was a very important game for the Eagles and the Giants led 17-3 at half but lost in OT. That was with immobile Eli Manning at QB for NY and now with Jones back at QB we feel the Giants have a better chance in this one. Jones returned last week from injury and threw for 352 yards and 5 TD’s while also giving them a running threat from that position. He’ll also get help from now healthy RB Barkley who had 189 rushing yards and 90 receiving yards last week. The Giants offense has now put up 400+ and 500+ yards in each of their last two games, both wins. NY has been competitive with 5 of their last 7 losses coming by a TD or less and they have some momentum coming into their home finale off back to back wins. Philly 1-2 ATS this year as a road favorite and we’re not sure we can even count cover @ Washington as it took 2 TD’s in final 30 seconds (defensive TD included) to get that lucky cover. How much does Philly have left in the tank after 3 straight down to the wire division games including a must win last week vs Dallas? NY will come to play here as they’d like nothing more than to knock Philly from the NFC East top spot. Close game and we’ll take the points |
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12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +3 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Browns have obviously been a huge disappointment this season. We could see them mailing it in this week in their season finale @ Cincy. They had a big game last week at home vs Baltimore, their last hurrah so to speak, and lost 31-15. With a team that lacks character like Cleveland and with nothing to play for, we anticipate a poor effort here. On the other side, while the Bengals have only 1 win on the season, they’ve been much better since inserting Andy Dalton back at QB a month ago. Unlike Cleveland, the Bengals are also showing some fight as witnessed in last week’s game @ Miami where they trailed 35-12 in the fourth quarter and battled back to send the game into OT where they lost by a FG. In their home finale, we have no doubt this team wants to up their 1 win and go out on a positive note. They’ve also already locked up the #1 pick in next year’s draft so no taking for Cincy here. These two just met in Cleveland 3 weeks ago and the Browns won that game 27-19. It was a misleading final however as Cincinnati outgained the Browns by 120 yards but gave up a 61-yard pick 6 which turned out to be the difference. The Bengals were +10 in first downs in that first meeting and controlled the ground game in that loss with 179 yards rushing. They tallied 451 total yards and after last week’s performance they have topped 400 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. The Browns have also been a money burner as a road favorite at 1-3 ATS & SU this year and 1-5-1 ATS in that role since 2012. We like Cincinnati to win this game so we’ll take the points. |
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma +14 v. LSU | Top | 28-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
#241 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma (+) over LSU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This Oklahoma team and their head coach Lincoln Riley understand what this College Football playoff appearance is all about. That’s because they were here last year in a very similar situation. The Sooners, the #4 seed a year ago, came in as 13.5 points underdogs vs Alabama who was the # 1 seed. OU lost that game by 11 points but picked up the cover. They did get down by 21 points at one point, however when an offense like OU’s is getting 2 TD’s, they are never out of it and they proved that last year. They put up nearly 7.0 YPP on one of the best defenses in the country last year in this game. Now they face a potent LSU offense, however the Tiger defense is not nearly the caliber of last year’s Alabama defense. We see a similar type game this year. The Sooner defense is underrated this year. Last year they entered this game allowing a ridiculous 454 YPG. This season they are giving up just 331 YPG, a full 120+ yards better than last year, and they’ve allowed an average of just 278 YPG over their final 4 games of the season. On the year the OU defense is allowing almost 100 YPG less than their opponents are averaging. While we don’t expect them to shut down a potent LSU offense, we also don’t think the Tigers will be able to move the ball at will as many believe. Offensively the Sooners have scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year and they’ve topped 40 in 8 of their 12 games this year. Sooner QB Jalen Hurts has tremendous experience playing in college football’s version of the Final 4 as this will be his 4th straight year playing in the college football playoff (played with Alabama the previous 3 seasons). LSU’s coaches and players have not played in playoff which we feel gives a bit of an edge to OU in the experience aspect. The Tigers are very good but we don’t think they should be a full 2 TD favorite in a game of this magnitude. They did beat UGA by 27 in the SEC Championship game, however vs the other top tier SEC teams LSU was not dominant beating Bama by 5, Auburn by 3, and Florida by 14 with the last 2 games mentioned coming at home. Oklahoma’s offense is definitely good enough to keep up in this game and we expect them stay within this lofty number. |
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12-27-19 | Washington State v. Air Force OVER 68 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Air Force Falcons vs Washington State Cougars, Friday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #235 |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -11 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Eastern Michigan Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #225 |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -4 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PMET The Packers have been treading on thin ice for quite some time and now and we think it catches up with them here. They are 11-3 on the season but they have been outgained by their opponents 371 YPG to 336 YPG. They rank 21st in the NFL in total offense and 23rd in total defense. Those simply aren’t the numbers of an 11 win team. Last week a struggling Bears offense outgained Green Bay by 123 yards but the Packers pulled out an 8 point win. That was the 7th time this season GB has been outgained yet still won the game. Aaron Rodgers is barely completing 50% of his passes over the last 3 weeks and Green Bay has been held to 24 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. It’s really tough to keep winning when you’re getting consistently outplayed on the stat sheet. Especially on the road vs a solid team. Minnesota is 6-0 at home with all but one win coming by at least 10 points. Their average margin of victory here in Minneapolis is 13.5 points. In the first meeting the Vikes rolled up 421 yards and held GB to just 335 but the Packers squeaked out a 21-16 win. Minny QB Cousins, while most wouldn’t expect it, is having a better year the Rodgers. He’s completing 70% of his passes (63% for Rogers), with 3,481 yards (Rodgers slightly less at 3,463), 25 TD’s (24 for Rodgers) and a rating of 111.1 (Rodgers is at 100.4). If the Vikings lose here they give Green Bay the NFC North title. A win by Minnesota extends us to next week to determine who wins the division. The fact is the Vikes are better on offense (ranked 9th to 21st for GB), better on defense (14th to 23rd), and the better scoring team (7th to 14th for the Packers). They are also a terrific home team winning 16 of their last 19 home games with 15 of those 16 wins coming by at least a TD. Under Zimmer the Vikings are 28-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or less. This has been a tough place for Green Bay to play as their last win in Minnesota was back in 2015. Lay it with the Vikings here. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Central Florida Knights, Monday at 2:30 PM ET: Game #211 |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona +9.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Seahawks continue to win but also continue to play close games with 10 of their 11 wins coming by 8 points or less. Their miniscule +26 point differential means they have an average winning margin of +2 PPG. Seattle’s injuries are also mounting and we think this will be a very tough game for Seattle. Starting DE Clowney and starting safety Diggs are both doubtful. Starting DT Woods has also just been suspended for 4 games for violating the league’s PED policy. The Seahawk defense ranks 27th overall and 30th in pass defense and we have no doubt that Arizona will be able to score points and keep up in this one. The Cards picked up some confidence last week putting up 38 points vs Cleveland in a win with QB Murray hitting 9 different receivers for receptions. Seattle won the first meeting but the stats were almost identical with each team running 55 offensive snaps and the Seahawks outgaining the Cards by just 19 yards. Arizona is now 4-1-1 ATS this year as a road dog while Seattle is just 4-2 SU at home this year with their wins coming by 1, 1, 6 in OT, and 7 points. Their once vaunted home field advantage has dissipated as the Seahawks are just 10-11-1 ATS their last 22 home tilts. Seattle has a massive game with San Francisco so while a win is needed, a look ahead is not out of the question. This NFC West division game stays close |
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12-22-19 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 49 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Over 49 Points - Baltimore @ Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET There will be plenty of points scored here between these two AFC North rivals. In the last meeting these two teams combined for 65 total points which easily eclipsed the total of 47. Baltimore put up 395 total yards in that game while the Browns put up a season high 530 yards and their second highest scoring output of 40-points. Baltimore has plenty to play for with revenge and an opportunity to clinch the 1st seed in the AFC with a win. The Ravens have the #1 efficiency offense in the NFL, #1 in yards per point scored (12.2) and first in scoring offense averaging 33.7PPG. The dynamic Baltimore offense has scored 40+ in four of their last six game and could easily get to that number here against a Browns D that is in the bottom half of the NFL in efficiency ratings. Cleveland just gave up 38-points last week to a Cardinals offense that was averaging just 20.9PPG (22nd) going into that contest. The Browns offense has been trending up since mid-November as they averaged just 19PPG prior to November 12th but have since averaged 25.2PPG. Cleveland does average 5.7 yards per play which is 14th in the NFL and we know they have enough weapons on offense to put up 21 or more in this contest. When you combine these two teams away/home Over/Under records this year they are a profitable 9-5 for the season. This game goes OVER the total rather easily. |
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12-21-19 | Florida International +1.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida International Panthers (+) over Arkansas State Red Wolves, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET: Game #213 |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Buffalo Bulls (-) over Charlotte 49ers, Friday at 2 PM ET: Game #201 |
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12-15-19 | Vikings v. Chargers +1.5 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +1.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 4 PM ET This line opened Vikings -3 and the vast majority of bets have come in on Minnesota this week (currently 77%) yet the line dropped off the key number of 3 down to -2.5. That tells us that despite the heavy tickets on the Vikes, the heavy money has come in on the Chargers and we agree LA is the play here. Let’s not forget this Charger team is much better than their 5-8 record and they were in the AFC Championship game last year with many of the same players on the team this year. They are +71 YPG on the year and +0.8 YPP. Their point differential is also +38 on the year which makes them one of only 2 teams with a losing record that is plus in the point differential (Indy is +1). They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents and all of their 8 losses have come by 7 or less. They are off a confidence boosting 45-10 win @ Jacksonville last year. Their last 2 home games they whipped Green Bay 26-11 outgaining the Packers by 258 yards and a 7 point loss vs KC in a game they outgained the Chiefs by 130 yards. Minnesota is coming off a division win over the Lions and they have a gigantic game vs the Packers on deck. It is their 2nd trip to the west coast in the last 3 weeks (lost by 7 @ Seattle two weeks ago). Minnesota has been great at home (6-0 record) but they are just 3-4 on the road with their wins coming against the Giants, Lions, and Cowboys, all losing teams. While the Chargers are also a losing team, we feel they are the top below .500 team out there and this is a dangerous spot for Minnesota. We think LA wins this game outright. |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Over 45 NY Jets @ Baltimore Ravens, 8:20PM ET – Our analytics say this game is going to be a higher scoring game. On the season the Jets offense has some less than appealing statistics, but they have scored 22 or more points in 4 of five and 34 points in three of those games. New York’s yards per play numbers are low but their yards per point average of 15.6Y.P.P.T is only slightly below league average. The Jets have nothing to lose at this point so expect them to open the playbook here on national TV against the marquee Ravens. New York has some impressive overall defensive numbers but the offenses they’ve faced has inflated those statistics. Against a few of the good offenses they’ve faced they’ve given up a ton of yards and points. Versus Dallas, who has similar numbers to the Ravens offense, the Jets allowed 400 total yards, 26 first downs and 22-points. The next best offenses they lined up against were the Patriots and Eagles who they gave up over 30-points to in each game. The Jets have some injuries on the defensive side of the football and are not facing the most diverse offense in the NFL with QB Lamar Jackson. Baltimore is 1st in average points scored per game at 33.1PPG, 2nd in total yards per game at 408.2YPG and 1st in rushing at 200.9RYPG. The Ravens offense had scored 30 or more points in 5 straight games before a pair of 20+ outings against two solid defenses of the Bills and 49ers. Our math model projects a Ravens win 32-17 or 49 total points being scored. We couldn’t agree more. |
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12-09-19 | Giants +10.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +105 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:15 PM ET We anticipate the Giants rallying around QB Eli Manning who steps in for his first start since September 15th. He had fairly solid numbers in those 2 starts with 556 yards passing, 63% completion rate (vs Cowboys and Bills). The organization, however, was ready to move on and see what Daniel Jones could do. Jones looked decent early but he has now lost 8 in a row (2-6 ATS) as defenses have figured him out. He’s also been a turnover machine with 21 giveaways in his 11 games. Manning will be an upgrade tonight as he is rested and ready to go. The Eagles are way too inconsistent to be laying double digits in this game. They have lost 3 in a row to drop to 5-7, including a 37-31 setback @ Miami last week. The Eagles have been outgained in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve been held to 22 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. Those numbers make it tough to see them as nearly a 10 point favorite here. This is also a division game which we feel favors the big dog here. Looking at Philly’s last 18 wins over NY, only 6 have come by more than 10 points. Take the points here. |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET This line opened with the Seahawks favored by -2.5 and has dropped despite nearly 70% of the tickets coming in on Seattle. We agree with the move and like the Rams here. Seattle is on a short week coming off a 37-30 home win over Minnesota. Seattle is now 9-1 SU this year in one score games so they are far from a dominant team despite their 10-2 record. In fact, if you line these two teams up on a point differential and YPG differential basis, they are almost identical despite the 3 game difference in the standings. The Rams are +33 points on the season and +43 YPG on the year while the Seahawks are +36 PPG and +21 YPG on the season. The Rams have a HUGE edge defensively allowing just 4.9 YPP (4th in the NFL) to Seattle’s 5.8 YPP allowed (24th in the NFL). Seattle has a slight edge offensively (5.9 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but the Rams seemed to get their momentum back offensively last week putting up a season high 550 yards @ Arizona. These two met earlier this year and the Rams were +2 in that game @ Seattle and now the spread is in the same neighborhood at home. The gives us value on LA here. IN that first meeting the Rams outgained Seattle putting up 477 yards but missed a FG as time expired in the 30-29 loss. LA has outgained 10 of their 12 opponents and they are better than their record. They are also 11-4 SU at home in division games since Sean McVay took over as head coach. This is a much bigger game for the Rams who are fighting for their playoff lives currently 1 game out of the final wildcard spot. We like the Rams to win this game. |
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12-08-19 | Titans v. Raiders +3 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This line just a few weeks ago would have had Oakland favored and now, because of recent results, they are getting a full FG at home. The Raiders won 3 consecutive home games in beginning in early November before taking the road and losing @ NY Jets & @ KC the last 2 weeks. Last week’s 40-9 loss was extremely misleading as Oakland actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards (5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP) and held the potent KC offense to less than 300 yards of total offense. Three first half turnovers led to 14 KC points and put Oakland in a quick 21-0 hole which they couldn’t climb out of. They catch an overvalued Tennessee team coming off a huge division win @ Indy last Sunday. The Titans were outgained by the Colts and the game swung on a blocked FG returned for a TD with the game tied at 17-17. Tennessee has won 5 of their last 6 but they’ve been outgained in half of those games (3). Because of the Titan’s run, we are getting solid value here. Just a few weeks ago Tennessee was +3.5 @ Carolina who is rated almost dead even with Oakland in our power ratings and now the Titans are laying a full FG. Both teams are fighting for the playoffs and only one game separates them with Oakland at 6-6 and Tennessee at 7-5. The fact is Oakland has been very good at home this year with a 5-1 record and their only loss here coming vs Kansas City. They catch the Titans in a perfect sandwich spot off a huge division road win, on the road for the 2nd straight week and a game with division leader Houston on deck. We like the Raiders to win this one outright so we’ll take the points. |
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12-07-19 | Miami-OH v. Central Michigan -6 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (-) over Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #106 |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 43 Points - Tennessee @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The spread on this game is currently Tennessee (-1) thus the final expected score is 22-21. The Colts have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their 6 games this season and one of those low scoring games was with Brian Hoyer at QB and Jacoby Brissett sidelined with an injury. Now facing a Tennessee defense that is trending downward allowing 25 PPG over their last 5 contests. On the other side of the all, the Titans are playing very well offensively right now. Since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB, Tennessee is averaging 29.5 PPG and they have scored at least 3 offensive TDs in each of his 5 starts. Last week they tallied 42 points and 471 yards vs the Jags. The last two games they’ve scored 77 points. The oddsmakers have yet to catch up to this improvement as the Titans have gone OVER in all 5 of Tannehill’s starts yet this one is set in the low 40’s. We like both offenses to have success here in perfect conditions in the dome and push this one OVER the total rather easily. |
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11-30-19 | North Carolina -10.5 v. NC State | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #359 |
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11-30-19 | Oregon State v. Oregon OVER 65 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #431 |
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11-29-19 | Washington State +8 v. Washington | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Friday at 4 PM ET: Game #339 |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas -6.5 over Buffalo, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET Dallas is much better than their 6-5 record in our opinion. They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.4 and their offense is actually #1 in the NFL in total yards per game (433) and YPP (6.6). Those are better numbers than the red hot Baltimore offense! The only team that outgained Dallas this year was New Orleans and that was by just 9 yards. Despite their 6-5 record, Dallas has the 2nd best point differential in the NFC at +85 trailing only San Francisco. Last Sunday the Cowboys took New England to the wire on the road before losing 13-9. They outgained the Pats by 40 yards despite running fewer offensive plays. Buffalo is not as good as their 8-3 record would indicate. Their offense is pedestrian averaging just 18 PPG if you subtract their 2 games vs Miami. Last week they topped Denver 20-3 but still have beaten only 1 team this year that currently has a record above .500 (Tennessee). The Bills strength of schedule ranks dead last in the NFL at 32nd. The teams they’ve beaten so far this year have a current winning percentage of .239 or just less than 24%. The Cowboys running game which averages 4.6 YPC (8th in the NFL) matches up very well with Buffalo’s defensive weakness and that is allowing 4.4 YPC (21st in the NFL). That should open up the Dallas passing game and we expect them to play very well on offense. We don’t see Buffalo’s offense keeping up in this game. Lay the points with Dallas. |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 47 Points - Baltimore @ LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET This number is set a few points higher than our projection and we think the value is on the UNDER here. The main reason it is set higher than it should be is because of Baltimore’s offensive performances over the last month or so. They have scored at least 30 points in 4 straight games. However, 3 of the 4 teams they’ve faced rank 22nd or lower in YPP allowed and defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders. The one good defense they faced during that stretch was New England and while they did put up 37 points, they really didn’t put up huge stat numbers with 372 yards on 5.8 YPP. They did have a defensive TD in that game as well so based on those numbers they normally would have scored in the mid to upper 20’s in that situation. The only other top 10 YPP defense the Ravens have faced this year is Pittsburgh and they scored 23 in regulation in that game. The Rams are the 4th best YPP defense in the NFL (4.8) and they’ve held 7 of their 10 opponents to 20 points or fewer. They are also excellent at stopping the run allowing only 3.3 YPC on the season which ranks 2nd in the NFL behind only the Jets. That is key vs Baltimore that runs the ball more than another other team in the NFL. Many still view the Rams offense has a high scoring outfit which simply isn’t the case anymore. They are averaging 24 PPG which is down nearly a full TD from last season. They have scored only 29 combined points in their last 2 games vs Pittsburgh and Chicago. They ran the ball 34 times last week (only 18 passes) vs a solid Chicago defense and we feel they’ll have the same gameplan tonight. Run the ball vs a Baltimore defense that ranks 21st allowing 4.4 YPC. That will keep the Baltimore offense off the field which is key. The Raven defense has been keeping teams out of the endzone allowing 20 points or less in 5 straight games and with the Rams struggling on offense, we just don’t see many points tonight. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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11-24-19 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points - Carolina @ New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Carolina offense has been trending downward for weeks now. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and their offense was held 16 points or less in 3 of those 4 games. Now that defenses have tape on Panther QB Allen, they have been able to slow him down after a red hot start. In the last 4 games he’s only thrown 3 TD passes. We don’t expect that to change against a very good Saints defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in defensive efficiency per Football Outsiders. On the other side, many still view the New Orleans offense as the high potent, high scoring attack they had last season when they averaged 31 PPG. That really isn’t the case this year as the Saints rank nearly the middle of the pack in scoring (23.8 PPG), total offense (364 YPG) and offensive efficiency (5.7 YPP). In the 5 games Drew Brees has started at QB, they’ve actually averaged fewer points than their season average (22 PPG). Last week they scored 34 points, however on TD came from the defense, and Buc QB Jameis Winston set them up nicely on a few others throwing 4 picks. The Saints only had 328 total yards on 5.1 YPP vs a poor Tampa defense. Now they face a much better Carolina defense that ranks 13th in the YPP allowed. The Panthers do have one weakness on defense and that is their rush defense which means we expect the Saints to run the ball a lot which eats up the clock. These two division rivals know each other very well and we anticipate somewhat of a defensive battle here that lands in the low 40’s. We’ll take the UNDER. |
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11-24-19 | Broncos +4 v. Bills | Top | 3-20 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +4 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET As we’ve said many times this season, Denver is much better than their 3-7 record. Last week we thought they were in a terrible spot @ Minnesota, who tends to destroy teams at home, with a QB that had never started a road game. We took the Vikings thinking a 2 TD win for the host was probable. Denver proved us wrong losing just 27-23 and they actually led Minnesota 20-0 in the first half. QB Allen played solid (240 yards passing) and the defense continued to play very well holding a potent Minnesota attack to just 320 yards. Denver actually outgained Minnesota by 73 yards and played very well in one of the tougher environments in the NFL. Now they head to Buffalo in a game they can absolutely win. The Bills are a bit of a farce at 7-3 as only one of their wins came against a team with any type of a pulse (14-7 win vs Tennessee). Their other wins have come against Miami (twice), Washington, NY Giants, NY Jets, and Cincinnati. Those 4 teams have combined for a 6-34 record and that makes this Bills record a bit misleading. While Denver only has 3 wins, as we discussed they are underrated and much better than any of those 4 teams mentioned. Despite their record the Broncos are +11 YPG and +0.2 YPP on the season. Those are the stats of a .500 type team. Buffalo struggles to score. If you take out their two games vs Miami they are only averaging 17 PPG. Now they face one of the better defenses in the NFL (Denver 9th in defensive efficiency) and we expect the Buffalo offense to struggle. The Broncos have played close games all season long with 7 of their 10 games being single score contests (8 points or less). Four of their seven losses have come by 4 points or less. We look for a low scoring game and we give Denver a great shot at winning. Take the points. |
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11-23-19 | TCU +18 v. Oklahoma | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #137 |
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Texans -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts, 8:20PM ET – This is a huge game for both teams as it may decide the AFC South. From a situational standpoint we must take the Texans, at home, on a short week and playing with same season revenge as they lost in Indy a few weeks ago. Not too mention, the Texans are off a HORRIBLE showing against the Ravens last week. But this game will be different as they don’t face a mobile QB like Lamar Jackson who threw for 222 yards, 4 TD’s and rank for another 86. The Colts are off a big win against Jacksonville at home with Jacoby Brissett throwing for just 148 total yards, 1 passing TD and 1 INT. These two teams have played nearly identical schedules yet the Colts net yards per play differential is minus -0.3 while the Texans is even. Houston relies heavily on QB Watson who has 8 TD’s and zero INT’s in his last two home games with 705 passing yards. We like the home team here and will lay the points. |
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11-17-19 | Texans +4.5 v. Ravens | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +4.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Baltimore has become a bit too public since beating New England a few weeks ago and we feel this line is too high. Houston is coming off a bye and they absolutely are good enough to win this game outright and the points at +4.5 are giving us some nice cushion if Baltimore does win. Houston is 3-1 in road games including a win @ KC when the Chiefs had QB Mahomes at 100%. The Texans dominated that game outgained the potent Chiefs by 163 yards. The Houston defense allows just 84 YPG rushing (3rd best in the NFL) which matches up very well with what Baltimore likes to do on offense and that is run the ball. In order to beat this Baltimore team, you need to slow down their running game and force QB Lamar Jackson to try and win through the air. We think Houston can do just that. Baltimore has been very good in the underdog role but they are just 2-4 ATS this year when favored. Let’s not forget that before they beat New England, the Ravens lost at home to Cleveland by 15 points and picked up close wins vs both Cincinnati & Arizona. The Texans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they’ve won all 3 of those games outright. Even when Houston loses, it tends to be a close game. In fact, since Deshaun Watson took over as the starting QB in 2017, Houston has lost 11 games with him under center and all were by 8 points or less. We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points. |
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11-16-19 | Wyoming +5.5 v. Utah State | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353 |
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11-16-19 | Florida v. Missouri UNDER 51 | Top | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER: Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #390 |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over the Total - Seattle @ San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET This Seattle team is a complete 180 from the teams they had a few years ago that focused on defense and simply controlling the game on offense. This year’s team has a poor defense (27th in defensive efficiency per Football Outsiders) and a very good offense (3rd most efficient per Football Outsiders). They need to try and win higher scoring games because their defense can’t stop other teams. The Seattle defense has allowed 28 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Even with that, the Seahawks won 4 of those 5 games which tells you what they can do offensively. The SF defense has been very good however some of that is most likely due to the offenses they’ve faced. In fact, of the last 8 teams they’ve faced, not one ranks in the top half of the NFL in offensive efficiency (yards per play). Tonight they face a Seattle offense that ranks in the top 7 in total offense, offensive efficiency, and points scored. They are also facing the hottest QB in the NFL at this moment as Russell Wilson has the highest QBR in the league and has thrown 22 TD’s and just 1 interception on the year. In their most recent game the Niner defense showed some flaws vs an Arizona offense with a rookie QB (Cards had 25 points and 400+ yards). Seattle will put up points tonight. San Fran will do the same vs this porous Seattle defense. If we throw out their game @ Washington that was played in a monsoon, the 49ers have scored at least 24 points in all but one game this year. With this spread set at SF -6, the expected score tonight would be around 26-20 or 27-21. We think both teams top those projected offensive scoring numbers and we take this one OVER the total. |
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11-10-19 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +3.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET You couldn’t ask for a better situation for a wager on the Vikings as they are off a disappointing loss, while the public Cowboys are off a big TV win on Monday night. That makes this a short week for a Cowboys team that is vastly over-rated by playing the 31st easiest schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys have played five games against teams with a combined 7-36 SU record and are the five worst teams in the NFL. Dallas has an average margin of victory this year of +10.6PPG but if you eliminate the previously teams that differential shrinks to just +1.6PPG. They’ve already lost to a pair of comparable teams to the Vikings in New Orleans (without Brees) and home against the Packers. Despite the disparity in scheduling the Cowboys yards per play differential (1.6YPPL) is barely better than the Vikings (1.0YPPL) and a tougher schedule. The Vikings have an average differential of +8.4PPG and have played a much better schedule than Dallas. Minnesota has a 2-3 SU road record this year, but the losses have come against Green Bay, at Chicago when the Bears were decent and then last week in Kansas City. Vikings head coach Zimmer is 17-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss and playing a non-division opponent and a remarkable 40-16-3 ATS when facing a non-NFC North team. |
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11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Cleveland -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re definitely buying low on Cleveland here. Nobody wants to bet the Browns right now after losing @ Denver last week dropping them to 2-6 yet they are favored over the 6-2 Bills here. There is a reason they are favored in this game and we expect a bounce back game for Cleveland. We all know they are a very talented team and now they are backed into a corner with everyone seemingly against them. That’s many times when NFL teams step up and play well. We also don’t mind fading a Buffalo team that we feel is completely overvalued at this point in the season. Their 6 wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 9-41 and none have a .500 record. They have beaten Miami, NY Jets, NY Giants, Washington, Cincinnati, and Tennessee. Last week they beat a terrible Washington team 24-9 but the Bills had just 268 yards of total offense in that game. They have also been at home for 5 of their last 6 games so their schedule thus far has been very much in favor of them. The Buffalo offense is fairly pedestrian ranking 22nd scoring only 19.8 PPG despite playing 4 of the bottom 12 defenses in the NFL this year. Their defense is overrated in our opinion for the same reason as the Bills have faced 6 of the bottom 9 NFL teams ranked in total offense. Their run defense has been exposed a bit over the last 3 weeks allowing 127 yards rushing to the Skins, 218 to the Eagles, and 109 to the Dolphins. Cleveland is one of the better running teams in the NFL (2nd in YPC) and not only will the Browns run Nick Chubb at the Buffalo defense but Kareem Hunt is now eligible as well. We expect the Browns with their backs against the wall hearing from everyone all week how bad they are, to rise up and play very well on Sunday. We spoke earlier about why would a 2-6 Cleveland team be favored over a 6-2 Buffalo team? Here is a very interesting and STRONG stat on that situation. Over the last 25 seasons, this is just the 7th time in week 6 or later a team winning 25% or less of their games (Cleveland) is favored over a team winning 75% or more of their games (Buffalo). The favorite (supposed bad team) that has won 25% or less is 6-0 ATS in those games as a favorite! Again there is a reason Cleveland is favored and we’ll take the Browns on Sunday. |
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11-09-19 | Kansas State v. Texas -7 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Longhorns (+) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184 |
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11-09-19 | Stanford v. Colorado OVER 55 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Stanford Cardinal at Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3 PM ET: Game #149 |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 48 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 48 Points - LA Chargers @ Oakland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We expect to see a back and forth scoring game tonight. Oakland’s offense is solid averaging 6.2 YPP which is 3rd in the NFL behind only Dallas and KC. They had scored at least 24 points in 5 straight games including 31 points (400+ total yards) last week here vs Detroit. Their offense rates 5th in the NFL in efficiency according to Football Outsiders. They are a very good running team (4.8 YPC good for 8th in the NFL) and QB Derek Carr is quietly having a very good season now that he’s healthy (71% completions, 1,980 yards passing, 13 TD’s, and just 4 interceptions). The problem is their defense stinks. They’re going to need to score a fair amount of points to win games. The Raiders are allowing 6.3 YPP which is better than ONLY Cincinnati this season. Last week Detroit roasted this defense for a ridiculous 7.6 YPP. Three weeks ago Green Bay averaged almost 9.0 YPP in their game vs Oakland. We don’t see them slowing down a Charger offense that ranks 9th in the NFL in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) and put up 442 yards on Green Bay last week. The Chargers had 26 points in the game but could have had more as they got up 26-3 and went conservative in the 4th quarter. As for the Charger defense, they played very well last week but they also caught Green Bay in a terrible spot on the road a week after beating KC on the road. Aaron Rodgers even admitted his team may have been reading their press clippings and came out flat. The 5 teams they faced leading into their GB game were Chicago, Tennessee, Pittsburgh (back up QB), Denver, and Miami, all poor offenses. Those teams rank 18, 26, 27, 28, and 30 in scoring offense and 22, 23, 27, 28, and 31 in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders). Oakland will be the most efficient offense they have faced this season. This line is around a pick-em which tells us the final score should be 24-24 or in that range. We expect both of these teams to top 24 tonight and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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11-03-19 | Lions v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET Oakland is just happy to be home where they have not played since September 15th! They’ve played 5 consecutive games away from home including a game in London a few weeks back. They also had a bye thrown in so 6 full weeks and you can bet the loyal Black & Silver followers will be amped up for this game. The Raiders were 2-3 on their road trip and were quite impressive based on their competition. They beat Indy & Chicago during that stretch with losses @ GB, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston. They actually outgained GB on the road but the game turned on a few key turnovers including one late in the 1st half that turned into a 14 points swing in favor of the Packers. Last week @ Houston the Raiders never trailed until 6:00 minutes remaining in the game in a 27-24 loss and they outgained the Texans drastically averaging 7.1 YPP to just 5.2 for Houston. On that 5 game road swing the Raiders played the 2 best teams in the NFC North and the 2 best teams in the AFC South and presented themselves very well. On top of that, they played KC when Mahomes was a full strength so 5 of their 7 games this season have come against some of the top teams in the NFL. This team is better than their 3-4 record. Detroit comes in with a 3-3-1 record on the season and they are getting outgained by an average of 41 YPG (379 on offense / 420 on defense). Their defense has been very poor ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati. The Lions have allowed at least 430 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. They also allow 130 YPG on the ground which is a bad match up here vs an Oakland running game that puts up 131 YPG. That should open things up for QB Derek Carr and we look for the Raider offense to have a big game vs a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 23 points in all but one game this season. Oakland wins and covers at home. |
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11-02-19 | Virginia +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #337 |
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11-02-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma State OVER 58.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #373 |
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10-27-19 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 15-29 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* TOP GAME PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We love the value here with the Jets. This line tells us that If Jacksonville was @ the Jets the line would be around a pick-em with the Jags potentially even favored. We just don’t see that. This line is too high and now with Sam Darnold back at QB we feel these teams are actually pretty close which would make Jacksonville -3 or -3.5 here, NOT -6.5. In this game we get the Jets coming in off an embarrassment on Monday Night football. They lost 33-0 to New England, not a huge surprise, and had 6 turnovers. The Patriots defensive schemes can do that to the best of offenses. We often see teams play much better off games like this. Often you can get some line value coming off a Monday Night game like that as people see a team struggle or get shutout and are reluctant to wager on them the next week. We definitely have that in this game. Let’s not forget a week earlier this NY Jets team, with Darnold back at the helm, beat Dallas. Now they play a so-so team in Jacksonville who comes in with a 3-4 record and trending downward in our opinion. We look for the Jets offense to play much better in this game. They are off a game facing a New England defense that has been historically good this year and now facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most key stats (total defense, Yards per play defense, rush defense, and pass defense). They will also be without 3 key LB’s in this game and that means Jacksonville is down to 1 LB who’s played more than 1 snap this season. Those are key cluster injuries to a very important position. Most wouldn’t know it but the Jets have a top 10 defense on a yards per play basis allowing just 5.3 – Jags allow 5.9. The Jets offensive stats are very poor but not reflective of the current offense. They are a completely different offense with Darnold at the helm and the play calling reflects that. He has played in just 3 games but has led NY to all but one of their TD’s on the season. Also remember, that 2 of those games came against New England and Buffalo, two of the top three defenses in the NFL in total yards allowed. They are facing a Jacksonville team that won 27-17 @ Cincinnati (who’s now 0-7) last week but were trailing 10-9 in the fourth quarter and the Jags were the beneficiary of a pick 6 for 7 of their 27 points. QB Gardner Minshew was the talk of the NFL in his first few starts but now that there is film on him, he’s come back down to earth a bit and the defenses have adjusted. In his last 2 games, Minshew has completed just 29 of his 61 pass attempts (47.5%) with only 1 TD and 1 interception. He also had his two lowest QB ratings in those 2 most recent games. In their last 2 games vs the Saints & Bengals, the Jaguars had 22 total offensive possessions and Minshew led them to ONE touchdown. That’s it. He’s struggling and if that means Jacksonville has to rely on their running game, they are facing a Jets defense that ranks #2 in the NFL allowing only 3.3 yards per carry. We see this as a tight game throughout and one the Jets can absolutely win. Getting +7 or more here is worth a solid play in this one. |
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10-26-19 | Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169 |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston OVER 65.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #103 |
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10-20-19 | Ravens +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Seattle comes in with a shaky 5-1 record in our opinion. Four of their five wins have come down to the wire with margins of 1, 1, 2, and 4 points. Their only comfortable win was @ Arizona. All of their 5 wins have come against teams that are currently at or below .500 and again, most were decided in the last few minutes of play. The only team they’ve faced that currently has a winning record, the Saints, beat them here on their home field. Both of these teams come off deceiving results last week. Baltimore beat Cincinnati 23-17 but dominated the game outgaining the Bengals by 250 yards. Seattle was down 20-6 @ Cleveland and had to claw back to pick up a 32-28 win and were aided by 4 Browns turnovers (just 1 for Seattle). The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense averaging 450 YPG and their YPG differential is an impressive +100 (Seattle’s is +40). The Ravens also lead the NFL in rushing at 205 YPG and they are playing into a Seattle defense that allows 4.7 YPC (25th in the NFL). Their balanced attack with QB Jackson mixing in the passing game should keep the Seattle defense that allows 6.0 YPP (25th in the NFL) off balance. Seattle’s once vaunted home field advantage isn’t so great anymore. They are just 9-7 SU their last 16 home games and their ATS mark here is 6-11 their last 17 (0-3 ATS this year). They have not been impressive here this year with a 1-point win over an 0-6 Cincinnati team (Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards), a loss to New Orleans, and a 1-point win over the Rams who misses a FG as time expired which would have won the game. Baltimore, on the other hand, thrives in this role with a 6-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog. We give the Ravens a great shot at the win and if not, we’re guessing it comes to the wire so any points are valuable here. |
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10-19-19 | Colorado v. Washington State -12 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372 |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #312 |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET Green Bay is off a big win @ Dallas but looking at the stats they were quite fortunate. The Cowboys outgained GB by 228 yards and averaged a whopping 8.2 YPP vs the Packer defense. Green Bay’s offense only averaged 5.2 YPP in the game. Dallas had 3 big turnovers which contributed to the Packer win. Green Bay is not quite as good as their 4-1 record might indicates as they are getting outgained by -40 YPG and -0.6 YPP. The defense looked great early but they’ve definitely come back to earth. After completely shutting down a bad Chicago offense in their season opener, the GB defense has allowed an average of 6.2 YPP over their last 4 games. Detroit has a situational advantage here coming off a bye. They have also beaten Green Bay 4 straight times including 2 wins here at Lambeau which gives them confidence coming in. The Lions have played a tough schedule beating the Chargers and Eagles. They blew a big lead @ Arizona to open the season in a game that ended in a tie and their only loss was vs the Chiefs in a game Detroit led with under 1:00 minute remaining. The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last 4 meetings with Green Bay and with the Packer defense not as good as people are making them out to be, Detroit could get there again. All of Detroit’s games this year have been decided by 4 points or less and we see another close one here. Take the points. |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET We love this spot for the Rams. They have had a full 10 days to get ready for this one after their 30-29 road loss @ Seattle last Thursday. It was their 2nd of back to back losses after they lost to Tampa the previous Sunday. Now you have the team that was in last year’s Super Bowl sitting at 3-2 in a must win spot at home. The Niners, on the other hand, come in on a short week after beating Cleveland Monday night. So San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 but they come into this game overvalued in our opinion. The four teams they’ve beaten are all currently under .500 and they have a combined record of just 5-15. Last year when these teams met in LA the Rams were -10.5 favorites and now they are laying only a FG? We realize Niner QB Garoppolo didn’t play in that game and SF looks improved but should this line really be a full 7.5 points off from last season? The value and situation absolutely favor LA here. In the Sean McVay era, the Rams have lost back to back games only twice and the rebounded with win and cover their next game both times. Historically NFL home favorites off Thursday night games (extra prep time) facing teams off Monday night games (short week) have covered 9 of 12 times. San Fran’s defense has looked good this year but let’s keep in mind that all of their opponents have an offense ranked 18th or lower (offensive efficiency via Football Outsiders) and 3 of those teams rank 25th or lower. The QB’s they’ve faced this year are Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston. This week they take a step up facing Jared Goff. Now to the LA defense. After holding their first 3 opponents to 49 total points, the LA defense wasn’t great the last 2 weeks including last week @ Seattle where they allowed 30 points. However, the Seattle offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in efficiency which is far better than any offense SF has faced. They’ve already faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton when he was healthy, and Drew Brees who are all far better than an QB the Niners have faced. We expect the Rams defense, which is very talented to play much better at home after two somewhat embarrassing performances. We also look for the offense to play well vs a 49er defense with solid stats because they’ve played weak offenses. This is a much, much bigger game for the experienced Rams and we like them to win by more than a FG. |
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10-13-19 | Bengals +12 v. Ravens | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +12 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Ravens continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers and the public. This team is simply not very good. Their defense ranks 31st allowing 6.7 YPP and the only team that is worse are the hapless Dolphins. The Ravens wins have come against Miami, Arizona, and Pittsburgh. The Arizona & Pittsburgh wins came down to the wire and last week the game with the Steelers, who were playing their 3rd string QB in the 4th quarter, went to OT. Despite playing an easy schedule, their only double digit win was @ Miami to open the season. The Bengals are 0-5 but they’ve been competitive more often than not with 3 of their 5 losses coming by 4 points or less. They’ve also played much better on the road this year taking Seattle & Buffalo, both better teams than Baltimore, to the wire in 1 and 4 points losses respectively. Cincy was +9 @ Seattle and +6.5 @ Buffalo and now they are getting double digits at division rival Baltimore? The value is absolutely on Cincinnati here. Laying double digits with a poor defense is not a way to get rich quick when wagering on football. Baltimore is already 0-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and just 10-22-1 ATS their last 33 games as a home chalk. Going back to 2010 they are 4-11 ATS as a double digit favorite. Cincinnati has lost by more than 11 points only twice in the last 20 meetings between these two AFC North rivals. The last time a team in this series was favored by double digits was way back in 2001 and the dog has also covered 9 of the last 10. This one should be close. Take the points. |
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10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128 |
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10-07-19 | Browns +5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
ASA play on: Cleveland Browns +5 over San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20PM ET - When we compare the key stats between these two teams we see some clear advantages on paper for San Francisco but we never just look at the numbers. We dig deeper. The Niners have one of the best rush defenses statistically in the NFL allowing just 3.4 yards per rush which ranks them 3rd. But they’ve played the Bengals (30th), Steelers (27th) and Bucs (24th) who are three of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL when it comes to yards per rush attempt. San Francisco will be tested here by a Browns offense that is 9th in RYPA at 4.9. That’s a big key for Cleveland as a strong running game takes pressure off QB Mayfield and opens up the play action pass. Sticking to that theme, the 49ers defense is ranked as one of the best in the NFL, but again, that’s a byproduct of the poor offenses they’ve faced. The Browns on the other hand are starting to look like a team that was hyped to be a contender in the AFC this season. Cleveland has the 8th most efficient defense in the NFL and have faced two of the best offenses already in Baltimore and the L.A. Rams. Jimmy G and the 49ers are 3-0 on the season but the three wins have come against teams with a combined 3-12 SU record. San Francisco is off a bye but that hasn’t helped them in the past as they are on an 0-6 ATS streak in that scheduling situation. The Niners are 7-17 ATS their last 24 home games and the last time they covered as a home favorite was 2014 with Jim Harbaugh as the coach. In fact, the 49ers are 1-12-1 ATS as a home favorite their last fourteen. Cleveland on the other hand excels as an underdog with a 9-5 ATS record dating back to the start of last season. SF has benefited with 2.3 takeaways per game, but they’ve also turned in over 2.7 times per game which is worst in the NFL. Don’t trust a favorite that doesn’t take care of the football. PLAY ON BROWNS! |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +7 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET This line looks fishy to us. The 0-4 Denver Broncos only getting 6.5 points? Shouldn’t this be 7 or higher? A few spots have +7 by the majority are at +6.5. The Chargers were favored by 7 and 7.5 in the two meetings last year. Looks like the oddsmakers are betting people to take the Chargers in this one. We actually like this Denver team. They are much better than their 0-4 record. They’ve lost 2 games on FG’s as time expired to Chicago and Jacksonville. They lost by 11 @ Green Bay in a game that should have been much closer as the yardage was dead even and the Packers scored on a 37 yard TD drive and 5 yard TD drive following Denver turnovers. We’re not sold quite yet on the Chargers. They are very close to being 1-3 with their only win coming vs the hapless Dolphins. Their other win was at home in OT vs the Colts in a game where Indy kicker Adam Vinitieri missed 2 FG’s and an XP. If not for that, the Colts win that game. Even last week vs Miami, it was a 20-10 game entering the fourth quarter and they outgained the Fins by just 157 yards and they were +1.0 yard per play. While that may look impressive, every other team that has played Miami has outgained them by at least 195 yards and were at least +2.8 YPP. LA also has very little home field advantage and we wouldn’t be surprised to see just as many Bronco fans in the seats on Sunday. The Chargers are 0-2 ATS at home this year and just 6-15 ATS their last 21 when playing host. This is a division game so while Denver is 0-4, they’ve been very competitive and we expect them to go all out here. The underdog is 12-4-2 ATS the last 16 meetings in this AFC West rivalry and we’ll call for another underdog cover. |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers -3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a tough spot for the Jags as this will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks including last week’s come from behind win @ Denver. Last week Jacksonville fell behind 17-3 @ Denver and had to battle their way back to get the last second win with a FG as time expired. The fact is, the Broncos ran 22 fewer offensive plays in that game and it still took a late FG to win the game for the Jaguars. Denver outgained Jacksonville on a YPP basis 6.9 to 6.0 but the Bronco defense allowed RB Leonard Fournette to run wild racking up 225 yards on the ground. Fournette had not topped 70 yards rushing in any game leading up to that performance so we see that as an outlier. Everyone is talking about the impact that QB Minshew has had on the Jags but how about Carolina QB Allen getting some notice? He gives the Panthers a much better chance to win compared to a banged up Cam Newton who couldn’t throw the ball down the field at all. Allen is now 2-0 as a starter and has thrown for almost 500 yards and 4 TD’s with no interceptions. His QBR is 65.8 which currently would rank him 6th in the NFL if he had enough snaps under his belt. For comparison’s sake, Minshew’s QBR is 47.0 which is 18th in the NFL and while we feel he is a very solid rookie, the hype has become a little much. Minshew also tweaked his knee late in last week’s game and is not 100% and was held out of practice until midweek. His counterpart Allen is not just another guy thrown in under center, he was a 5* QB recruit that actually beat out Heisman winner and Arizona QB Kyler Murray at Texas A&M prompting Murray to transfer to Oklahoma. He’s definitely not just another guy. Another aspect of Carolina’s team that gets overlooked is their defense which is really good. The Panthers currently rank 4th in the NFL in total defense allowing only 287 YPG and 2nd in YPP defense allowing just 4.3. Since losing 30-27 to the Rams in the season opener, Carolina has not allowed more than 20 points. They are very close to being 4-0 rather than 2-2 with close losses to the Rams & an emerging Tampa team. We would argue that if Allen had been under center since day one, this team might be 4-0. Add in the strong ATS stat that has Jacksonville just 4-20 ATS their last 24 games vs NFC team and this one looks solid. Just a very good situation to grab a surging Carolina team at home in this one. |
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10-06-19 | Patriots -15 v. Redskins | Top | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -15 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Horrible match up for the Skins. It looks like Washington head coach Jay Gruden will be starting rookie Dwayne Haskins at QB or veteran Colt McCoy which is not ideal vs the Patriots top notch defense. Haskins came in last week vs a bad Giant defense and threw 3 interceptions in their 24-3 loss and they were outgained by over 200 yards. McCoy hasn’t taken a snap this season and has had very little practice time with his receivers due to his recovery from last year’s broken leg. If this offense with Haskins at the helm could only score 3 points vs a Giant defense that had allowed at least 28 points in every other game, what are they going to do against a New England defense that has allowed one TD the ENTIRE season. While this line is obviously high, it’s nothing new to the Patriots who have now been favored by more than 14 points three times this season. They controlled the other two games they were tabbed big favorites vs Miami & NY Jets outscoring them by a combined 73-14 and we’d put Washington in that terrible team category at the moment. There are also rumblings of Gruden being fired as early as next week so there are plenty of distractions to go along with this 0-4 team. Expect New England to play very well as they are coming off a poor outing. They did beat Buffalo 16-10 but they were outgained drastically by the Bills and Tom Brady had his worst QB rating in 13 years in that game. The Redskin defense had allowed 30 or more points in every game until the Giants scored 24 last week. The Patriots coming off a poor offensive showing should have a field day against this defense on Sunday. They shouldn’t have to score much to get this cover either. We don’t anticipate Washington doing much of anything offensively so New England scoring 24 or more will probably get this done. Lay it with the Patriots. Our MATH MODEL projects a Patriot 35-10 win giving us an easy cover. |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356 |
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10-04-19 | New Mexico v. San Jose State OVER 66.5 | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New Mexico Lobos at San Jose State Spartans, Friday at 10 PM ET: Game #309 |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195 |
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09-27-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105 |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET This is simply a huge game for the Eagles. They are currently 1-2 on the season and can’t afford to drop to 1-3 and still feel they have a decent shot at the playoffs with Dallas currently rolling through the NFC East. Their 2 losses came by 4 points @ Atlanta and 3-points vs Detroit so they are fairly close to being 2-1 or even 3-0. On their final possession last week they had the ball in Detroit territory but were unable to get into FG position for the tie. At Atlanta they had the ball inside the Falcon 20-yard line in their final possession but came up short on 4th down. They’ve definitely had their chances. If tonight’s game goes as we expect, it will be another very close game and we’re getting a full +4 to +4.5 points which would have covered or at worst pushed Philly’s first 2 losses. Green Bay is 3-0 but they have been outgained in every game and they are getting outgained by an average of 42 YPG. They have been the beneficiary of a +6 turnover ratio after just 3 games (1st in the NFL). While their defense is vastly improved it’s not like we are talking about a top 5 defense right now. As good as they’ve been, they are still ranked only 13th in total defense. It’s the turnovers they’ve created that are the difference so far this year and we feel that simply doesn’t continue (+2 turnovers per game). The offensive numbers have been poor. They are 3-0 despite scoring only 19 PPG (23rd in the NFL). They are ranked 28th in total offense and 28th in yards per play. The most concerning offensive stat in our opinion is their 3rd down conversion rate is just 25% ahead of only Miami & NY Jets. That ends offensive possessions early and is obviously a drive killer. Philly, on the other hand, is at 56% rate on 3rd down which 2nd in the NFL only behind Dallas. Right now we feel the Eagles are undervalued and Green Bay is overvalued right now. Take the points with Philadelphia. |
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09-22-19 | Giants v. Bucs UNDER 48 | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 48 Points - NY Giants @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The unit that has flown under the radar in the NFL more than any other this season is probably the Tampa defense. Last year they were just terrible. They ranked near the bottom of the NFL in most key stats including scoring defense where they allowed 29 PPG (31st in the NFL). That has changed dramatically this year under new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles (Jets head coach last year). While they are allowing a full TD less than last year (22.5 PPG) thus far, the defense is actually outplaying those numbers. They have actually allowed ONE touchdown this season in 2 games. That’s it. San Fran’s offense looks very good after putting up 41 points last week on 550+ yards of offense last week @ Cincinnati. A week earlier the Niners scored 31 on this Tampa team although the defense did its part holding them to just 17 (two pick 6’s for San Fran in the game). Now they face a NYG offense that has scored 17 & 14 points their first two games. We realize that Giants are changing QB’s to Daniel Jones but we also expect them to ease him in and keep the game plan fairly simple especially with all of their injuries at WR. We don’t expect Jones to light it up in his first career start. The Tampa offense has been nothing to write home about scoring 17 & 20 points in their two games. While the NYG has struggled in the secondary, we’re not sure Jameis Winston is the QB to take full advantage of that. With the Bucs favored by 6 here the oddsmakers are expecting a final score of 27-21. We’d be extremely shocked if the Giants get to 20+ points and we anticipate Tampa in the mid 20’s. Take the UNDER here. |
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09-22-19 | Broncos +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Denver +8.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis (pick-em) over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line opened with Indy -3 which is where we thought it should be. The public remains enamored with Atlanta as they get bet hard on a regular basis. That has dropped this line down to -1 and now we’ll jump on the Colts. We were on Atlanta last week as a home dog which was an entirely different situation at home off a loss @ Minnesota. The Falcons picked up that home win over the Eagles and now they go on the road vs an AFC team playing their home opener. While bettors still love the Falcons, the fact it since their Super Bowl appearance in 2016, the Bird have a SU record of just 18-16. Indy comes in 1-1 having taken a very good Charger team to OT in the opener (loss) and then upsetting Tennessee on the road last Sunday. While this team lost Andrew Luck at QB, his replacement Jacoby Brissett is more than capable especially with a very good running game and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Brissett is completing 69% of his passes with 5 TD’s and just 1 interception on the season. That Indy running game is averaging 185 YPG (2nd in the NFL) and they are facing a Falcon defense that was gashed for 172 yards in their only road game @ Minnesota. The knew they could control the game on the ground (Minny won 28-12) so much so that they only attempted 10 passes the entire game. The Falcons are 1-8 ATS their last 9 as road underdogs and with the Colts now just having to win at home, we’ll grab them. |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349 |
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09-21-19 | Michigan v. Wisconsin UNDER 45 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER: Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #344 |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Atlanta +2 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET Hard to say teams are in must win mode in the 2nd week of the season, however we can put the Falcons in that category. After losing @ Minnesota to start the season (not surprising) they host the Eagles on Sunday night. After this game the Falcons are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games so this game becomes extremely important. In their loss in Minneapolis, the Birds are +9 first downs & +75 yards. However, they turned the ball over 3 times and had a punt blocked as well. All four of those miscues led to Minnesota TD’s which accounted to ALL 28 of their points. Here they face a Philadelphia team that got down 17-0 at home – 20-7 at half – vs a Washington team that was a 10 point dog in the game. They came back to win 32-27 but weren’t overly impressive in their opener. The Philly defense allowed Case Keenum and the Skins to throw for 380 yards and 3 TD’s. Now they face a much more potent Atlanta passing game, especially at home where QB Matt Ryan had a 118 passer rating last year compared to 99 on the road. These two met in last year’s season opener in Philadelphia. The Eagles scored a late TD with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pull off the 18-12 come from behind win despite getting outgained by the Falcons. Matt Ryan is 10-1 ATS in home openers and he gets another win here. Take the points with Atlanta. |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 53.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -104 | 42 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 53.5 Points - Kansas City @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Oakland defense had no answers for the KC offense last year allowing 75 points in their 2 meetings. KC QB Mahomes torched the Raiders for nearly 600 yards passing and 6 TD’s in the 2 games. The Chiefs played in Jacksonville last week and that total opened 52.5 which was only a point or so lower than this one despite the fact the Jags have a MUCH better defense when compared to Oakland’s stop unit. Even though KC was facing a very good defense last week, they still put up 40 points on almost 500 yards. They averaged over 8 YPP in the game. However, the much maligned KC defense also gave up over 8 YPP to a Jacksonville offense that played much of the game without starting QB Nick Foles who was injured. The Raider offense looked very solid last week putting up 24 points and averaged over 6.0 YPP on a solid Denver defense. Their defense held Denver’s offense to only 16 points but that was misleading as the Broncos also averaged over 6.0 YPP in the game. We see shootout here with neither defense slowing down the opposing offense. |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night @ New England and we have a feeling they bounce back and play very well on Sunday in their home opener. Roethlisberger has been unbeatable (8-0 ATS) when coming off a loss of 20 or more points in his career. We suspect he’ll have a big day vs a Seattle defense that allowed Bengal QB Andy Dalton to shred them for a career high 418 yards last Sunday. Seattle picked up the win in that game 21-20 but they were lucky to do so getting outgained by nearly 200 yards. In the game the Bengals averaged 6.1 yards per play to just 4.8 for Seattle. The offensive line looked shaky at best paving the way for only 72 rushing yards while Russell Wilson was only able to pass for 160 yards. Looks like the Steeler defense will be a reprieve this week after facing Tom Brady and the precise New England offense last week. We’ll give the Pittsburgh defense a break last week as they did look terrible but much of that we feel was the New England offense. This is still a defense that finished 6th in total defense and YPP defense last year. They’ll look much better this week and have a chip on their shoulder based on last week’s poor performance. Seattle’s ATS numbers as an underdog are solid, however they have been terrible in their road openers going 2-12 SU / 1-12-1 ATS since 2005. On the other side, when the Steelers are coming off a loss and favored by 3 or more points, they are 18-5 ATS since 2010. This one sets up nicely for Pittsburgh and we’ll lay the points. |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191 |
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09-14-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana OVER 59 | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 43 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER – Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #109 |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 78 h 9 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +7.5 over New Orleans, Monday at 7:10 PM ET Houston is too good to be getting a full TD in this game. We’re talking about a playoff team from a year ago (11-5 record) that upgraded their weak spot (offensive line) by adding LT Laremy Tunsil, one of the best in the game. They are facing a New Orleans team that might be a bit overhyped entering the season. The Saints are also a notoriously slow starting team going 0-10 ATS and 1-9 SU in their first 2 games of the season (over the last 5 years). They are also 0-5 ATS since 2015 as home favorites in September. Last year if you remember, in the opener the Saints were favored by 10 at home vs a bad Tampa team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. The Bucs won the game 48-40. In their 2nd game, also at home, they barely held on to beat Cleveland by 3 points. Now we have one of the better teams in the AFC getting a full TD? We’ll take that. Houston has a solid defense and with Deshaun Watson at QB, they can definitely score enough points to keep up with the Saints if needed. It’s also been a very solid investment to take Monday Night underdogs during the first week of the season as they are 25-15 ATS since the late 80’s. We think Houston gives the Saints all they can handle on Monday and an outright win wouldn’t be a surprise. Houston and the points here. |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +6 over New England, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Pats are notorious for their slow starts as they tend extend their preseason into the first few games of the regular season so to speak. Head coach Belichick adjusts and tweaks early in the season until he finds the line ups he feels are most effective. Last year the Patriots lost to Jacksonville & Detroit early in the season, two teams that ended the year with losing records. A year earlier New England lost to both Carolina & KC, both games at home, early in the season. They were favored in all of those games and were -7 or more in 3 of the 4. Brady may take some time to adjust without top target Gronkowski in the line up and their offensive line could be a problem this year. Starting LT Trent Brown left in the off-season and he is being replaced Isaiah Wynn who hasn’t played a snap yet in the NFL. They are also starting a guard who is a career back up. Pats will be good but it may take some time this year. We are much higher on Pittsburgh than many. We feel this will be an addition by subtraction situation with RB Bell & WR Brown, two problems in the locker room, now gone. We’re hearing the chemistry for the Steelers is MUCH better right now than it was at any point last year. Roethlisberger is back and he has plenty of weapons offensively. We have the Steeler defense pegged as one of the best in the NFL this year (finished 6th in the NFL last year in YPG & YPP allowed). Roethlisberger has been historically very good as an underdog with a 34-18-3 ATS lifetime record. Even more impressive he has a winning outright record 30-25 SU in those games as an underdog! We realize that New England has done very well vs Pittsburgh, however we think this is a different circumstance. Take Pitt + the points. |
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09-08-19 | Colts +7 v. Chargers | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET We think the betting market has overreacted to the loss of Andrew Luck for the Colts. This line was at Chargers -3 and now has jumped to -6.5 and some at -7. That’s move is too much in our opinion. While Andrew Luck was very important to this team, the Colts are solid across the board. They were in the top 10 in many defensive categories last year including scoring, total yards, yards per play, and yards per rush. On offense Jacoby Brissett is a more than capable back up and we actually consider him a middle of the pack starter in the NFL. He’s not great, but he’s not bad either. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that is definitely one of the best in the NFL. They were ranked the 4th best rush blocking unit and 2nd best at pass blocking in the entire NFL last year by Football Outsiders. All 5 starters are back up front so they will be very good again. The LA Chargers are without their top RB Melvin Gordon and their home field advantage is very minimal at their make shift soccer stadium in LA which holds 27,000. In fact, for many of their home games there are just as many opposing fans as Charger fans. They were just 2-6 at home ATS last year. Our word is the Colt players really like Brissett. The locker room is very tight and we feel they will play on Sunday to show everyone this team was and is more than just Andrew Luck. Expect an inspired effort from a very solid Colts team as they give the Chargers all they can handle on Sunday. Take the points. |
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09-08-19 | Bills +3 v. Jets | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line says that the Bills & Jets are rated basically the same and on a neutral field we’d have a pick-em game. We disagree. We have Buffalo rated as the stronger team and we’ll take the points here. We’re getting a strong defensive divisional underdog which always makes us sit up and take notice. Buffalo’s defense was outstanding last year. They finished 2nd in the NFL in total defense behind Baltimore only. They also finished 3rd in YPP defense and #1 in the NFL in pass defense. The Bills split with the Jets last year but a closer look reveals they dominated despite the 1-1 record. Buffalo won at NY 41-10 as an underdog last year and lost a tight game at home 27-23. In those two games combined, the Bills had 820 total yards to just 447 for the Jets. Their defense held NY to 3.6 & 4.7 yards per play. Expect them to stifle the Jets offense again on Sunday. Many discount the preseason but we do make note that Buffalo was 4-0 and looked very good. They have very solid continuity with the entire coaching staff back this year. The Jets, on the other hand, have a new head coach Adam Gase and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. While we expect New York to be improved, there will be a transition period with Gase in charge. There are a few technical points that back the Bills here as well. First, the underdog has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 meetings OUTRIGHT. Second, NFL division underdogs in week 1 of the season are a money making 17-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Our numbers have Buffalo’s chance of winning outright at more than 50%. We definitely have to take the points with the Bills. |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331 |
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09-07-19 | Cincinnati v. Ohio State OVER 53.5 | Top | 0-42 | Loss | -108 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #321 |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears UNDER 47 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
ASA BET ON: UNDER 47 Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears, Thurs 8:20PM ET - Several key indicators suggest Under here and our computer analytics predict just 43 total points being scored between these two rivals. The Packers have a new offensive system in place with new head coach Matt LaFleur calling the plays. QB Aaron Rodgers and a few other offensive starters saw limited or no preseason action so an adjustment period will take place. Several other questions remain surrounding the offense and this might be the worst place to play with an unfamiliar system. The Bears defense was one of, if not the best in the NFL last season. There are too many top rankings to list so we'll highlight a few key numbers: 1st in defensive efficiency, 1st in pass efficiency and 2nd in rushing defense efficiency. The Bears allowed just 17.6PPG last season, including holding the Packers to just 17-points on this field in mid-December. The Packers defense will be improved and should be up for the task of stopping a Bears offense that was ranked 20th or worse in offensive efficiency. Chicago's 25.6PPG scored last season is somewhat misleading as the defense score six TD's and gave them a short field to work with on many occasions. The Bears averaged just 16.5PPG in 2017 so we see their season numbers dipping back to the median or 23PPG which was the league average last season. It all adds up to a lower scoring game in the opener Thursday night. |
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08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203 |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 56.5 | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 56.5 Points - New England vs LA Rams, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET Rams defense has been great in the post-season. They have allowed just 98 yards rushing in two games against 2 of the better running teams in the NFL (Cowboys & Saints). They held both teams under 2.3 YPC. During regular season Rams allowed 6 YPP but in playoffs just 5 YPP. They held Dallas to 22 points and a very potent New Orleans offense to just 23 points last week on the road. New England has shut down 2 of the better offenses down in the 1st half holding Chargers to 7 points and KC scoreless. We expect Belichick will have a game plan to slow down the Rams offense early as well. In those match ups the Pats got out to big leads and forced the opposing offenses to play hurry up and catch up which resulted in some higher scoring 2nd halves. We don’t see that happening here. We see a close game (6 of New England’s last 8 Super Bowls have been decided by 4 points or less) with the defenses controlling the tempo. Another key here is we expect both teams to rely heavily on the run. The Pats have averaged 41 carries per game in their 2 playoff wins while LA has averaged 37 carries per game in their 2 playoff games. Both teams have solid kickers that can make them from 50+ in the dome so we think both will settle for FG’s rather than being overly aggressive and going for it on 4th down. These two QB’s have only thrown 3 TD passes combined in their 4 post-season games (Brady 2 & Goff 1). With think this game will start slow offensively with a low scoring first half. If the game stays close as we expect, we just don’t see either team going wild on offense in the 2nd half. We look for both defenses to play well and control the tempo and we’ll lean UNDER in the Super Bowl |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New Orleans -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET The home team has won each of the last 5 NFC & AFC Championships for a perfect 10-0 SU mark (8-2 ATS). We like New Orleans to do the same on Sunday. Last week the Rams came out and shocked the Cowboys with their gameplan which was to run the ball right down their throat. LA did so with great success rushing for 273 yards which took the pressure off of 3rd year signal caller Jared Goff. That worked last week at home, however we don’t see LA dominating the ground game this week vs New Orleans who has the #1 rush defense in the NFL allowing just 3.6 YPG and only 78 YPG on the ground. In their first meeting this year, the Saints held the Rams to just 92 YPG on the ground and we see a similar outcome on Sunday. That will make Jared Goff have to win this game and we’re not sure he’s ready for that. If it comes down to Brees vs Goff to win this one, we’ll take the veteran QB at home all day long. Goff has faced 6 different Super Bowl winning QB’s (Brees included) in 12 games over his career. The Rams are just 3-9 ATS in those games. Goff also have very good numbers at home this year, but on the road they dropped off dramatically (68% down to 60% on the road / 2,737 yards passing at home down to 1950 on the road / 22 TD’s and 9 picks at home to just 10 TD’s and 9 picks on the road). The Saints are a perfect 6-0 at home in playoff games under head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees (14 TD’s and just 2 interceptions for Brees in those games). They are veterans who have been here while Goff and head coach McVay are playing in just their 3rd ever playoff game. We really like the way the New Orleans defense played down the stretch. If you take out their meaningless season finale vs Carolina when they rested players having already clinched the NFC South, the Saint defense allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last 8 games. Last week the New Orleans offense scored only 20 points, however they rolled up 420 yards so that score was pretty deceiving (outgained Eagles by almost 200 yards). We expect them to put more points on the board this week while we like the New Orleans defense to at least slow down the Rams a bit. The Saints won the first meeting here 45-35 and while we don’t expect quite the offensive output we saw in that one, we do expect a similar result with New Orleans winning by a TD or more. Since 2012, no team that made the Super Bowl has played a road game. It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL playoffs and we don’t expect the Rams to change the streak on Sunday. Lay it with New Orleans in the dome. |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots -4 | Top | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -4 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR The Chargers have become a very popular underdog in this game and we just don’t see it. First of all, the situation is terrible for LA. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and 2nd of back to back games on the east coast. Secondly, it’s their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Of course the Pats are rested and coming off a bye so huge situational advantage to New England. HUGE coaching advantage to the Patriots as well. Bill Belichick has more playoff wins than any coach in NFL history and it’s not close. He has a record of 28-11 in the post-season while the coach with the 2nd most wins in the playoffs is Tom Landry with 20, a full 8-games less than Belichick. Giving him two full weeks to prepare for a home game vs Anthony Lynn who is coaching in just the 2nd playoff game of his career gives the Pats a distinct advantage. Last week the Chargers were in a beneficial situation playing a Baltimore team they faced just a few weeks earlier. They knew the Ravens haven’t been a prolific passing team since QB Lamar Jackson took over, they also were able to see the funky rush offense that Baltimore implemented 6 weeks earlier. Facing it already gave the defense a big advantage and they sold out to stop the run and it worked. This is a much different situation having no idea the game plan that Belichick will employ here and we guess it will be a very good one. Brady and company are VERY tough to beat at home where they are 8-0 this season (all wins but one coming by at least a TD) and they are 20-3 SU at home in playoff games with Brady under center. The Chargers offense hasn’t looked all that great over the last month or so. Philip Rivers looks a bit tired and his numbers have fallen off drastically. He had a QBR of more than 80 in 6 of his first 12 games this year. Since then he’s had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings for the season in the last 5 weeks and hasn’t topped 80 in any of those games. He’s thrown just 5 TD passes in his last 5 games. His running game won’t be what it was earlier in the year as Melvin Gordon’s knees are both banged up and he isn’t nearly as explosive as he was earlier in the year. Over their last 3 games the Chargers have averaged just 18 PPG on 239 YPG. Last week they held on to win 23-17 but LA was gifted 3 turnovers by the Ravens and many of their points came on very short fields. In fact, they scored only 1 TD in the game and their 3 of their 5 FG drives were 16-yards or less. The Pats were the only team in the NFL with an undefeated home record (8-0) and they averaged 33 PPG at home never scoring less than 24. They played 4 winning teams at home (Minnesota, KC, Houston, and Indy) and beat those teams by an average score of 33-23 and outgained them by an average of 78 YPG. Defensively the Patriots got better as the year went on, just as they did last season. They held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 17 points or less. The only team that topped 20 points on New England in Foxboro this season was KC. The Chargers were obviously very good on the road this year but this is the toughest situation they’ve faced as far as travel situation (3 straight road + back to back east coast) plus opponent. LA pulled the road upset last week but that is highly unlikely this week. In fact, teams that win in the wildcard round as an underdog are just 12-48 SU (21.39 ATS) the following week. The Patriots get the home win and cover. |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Dallas +8.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET We feel this is a very tough match up for the Rams. Dallas has the better defense ranking 9th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) while the Rams rank 19th. Worse yet for the Rams, they struggle to stop the run allowing 5.1 YPC (last in the NFL) and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency vs the run. That’s a bad match up when facing a very good running team like Dallas. The Cowboys rank 8th in the NFL in rushing YPG and found their groove last week rushing for 164 yards in their win over Seattle. Even more impressive, the Cowboy defense held the league’s top rated rushing attack to just 73 yards on 24 carries – less than 3 YPC. With Todd Gurley banged up as well for the Rams, the Cowboys should have a solid advantage in the running game which will be a big key in this game. LA only faced 3 teams this year ranked in the top 10 in rushing which makes their 5.1 YPC allowed even more concerning. Those 3 games were vs Seattle (twice) and New Orleans. They lost by 10 to New Orleans and both Seattle games went to the wire with LA winning close. That looks like a precursor to what might happen in this game. If you take a close look at the overall schedule this year, you’ll see that the Rams mopped up on the worst teams in the NFL but that wasn’t the case when they stepped up to play a good team. In their games vs playoff teams LA was just 1-5-1 ATS (4-3 SU) with an average score of 32-32. They outgained those teams by just 22 YPG. Dallas also played 7 playoff teams and the Cowboys were 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU) with an average score of 17-20 but they outgained those teams by 43 YPG. This line is a full TD (-7.5 in some spots) and the only teams the Rams beat by more than 7 this year were the Cardinals, Niners, Raiders, Lions, and Chargers. You can see the only good team on that list is the Chargers. Dallas, on the other hand, stepped up when they were tabbed a big underdog winning all 3 games OUTRIGHT this year when getting 7 or more points. Since 2003, dogs of a TD or more in the divisional round have been a money making 19-11-1 ATS (63%). Our eye test tells us Dallas was the better team over the 2nd half of the season (LA came out of the gate hot) winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming @ Indy a week after the Boys clinched the NFC East Title (can you say letdown spot – we were on Indy for a Top Game in that one). The Rams ran through the first half of their schedule but lost to the Saints, Bears, and Eagles down the stretch. On other thing to keep in mind is that while this is a home game for the Rams, you can bet the Cowboys will have more fans in the stands. LA’s following is not great for home games. Too many points here as we give Dallas a decent shot at the outright win. |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 38 h 52 m | Show |
ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here. |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens UNDER 43 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 43 Points- LA Chargers @ Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET These two met just 2 weeks ago and the final score was Baltimore 22-10 landing well under this number. The Raven defense held the Chargers to just 198 total yards on 3.7 YPP which was their lowest output of the season in any game. LA put up big numbers at times vs lower tier defenses but weren’t great offensively when facing top notch defensive units. In fact, in the 2nd half of the season the Chargers faced just 2 top 10 defenses (defensive efficiency) and they averaged just 16 PPG and 237 YPG. In their final 2 games of the season they scored just 3 offensive TD’s total vs Denver & this Baltimore team. Philip Rivers started the season on fire but down the stretch he fell off drastically with just 4 TD passes in his last 4 games. He also had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings on the season in those final 4 games. On the other side, we know Baltimore will run the ball which eats clock. They have averaged 230 YPG and 45 rushes per game on the ground since Lamar Jackson took over at QB. However their lowest numbers on the ground during that stretch were vs this Charger defense where they put up 159 yards on the ground. With Jackson at QB, the Ravens have averaged 25 PPG, however in 5 of his 7 starts he’s faced defenses ranked 32, 31, 30, 28, and 26th in defensive efficiency. The only top 10 defense he’s faced his this Charger unit (ranked 8th) and the Baltimore offense scored only 16 points in that game as the Ravens defense contributed a long fumble return for a TD late in that game. Windy conditions are on tap in Baltimore today (15 MPH) which will affect both passing games. We have 2 top 10 defenses here (Baltimore 3rd in efficiency & LA 8th) and we expect a similar game to what we saw 2 weeks ago. A grinder that goes UNDER this number. |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Over 48 Points - Indianapolis @ Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET This one sets up to be a shootout as both team’s strengths offensively are each other’s weakness defensively. We expect both teams to come out throwing which will lead to a higher scoring game. In the two meetings this year Luck had 103 pass attempts for 863 yards and 6 TDs. Watson had 80 attempts for 642 yards and 3 TD’s. Looking at the season averages, opponents completed 65% of their passing attempts versus Houston (18th worst). The Colts were worse yet, allowing foes to complete 70% of their attempts (31st). That ties into the Texans ranking 28th in passing yards allowed per game while the Colts are 16th. That’s bad news for both team’s defensive unit’s as the Texan’s big play passing game averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt (7th), while the Colts average 278 passing yards per game (6th). In the two games this season these two teams averaged 850 combined yards and totaled 45 and 71 total points. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined 45 points, BUT they didn’t score on five separate trips to the red zone (Indy 3, Hou 2). Based on the average yardage in those two games and both teams’ yards per point offense, both average 14.3YPPT (8th and 10th best) this game should see 59 total points being scored. BET OVER! |
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER – Ohio State vs Washington, Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET - ROSE BOWL - Prior to their low-scoring win over the Utes in the PAC-12 Championship Game, the Huskies had scored at least 27 points in 8 of their 9 previous games. This included bad weather games too. As for this one, conditions should be ideal in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl Tuesday afternoon (2 pm local time). Santa Ana winds in Southern Cal are impacting New Year's Eve but will have subsided through the morning hours on New Years Day. Winds are expected to be near 10 miles per hour at kickoff with clear skies and temperatures near 60 degrees. With ideal weather, Washington should have no trouble putting up at least 27 points again here. Look for QB Jake Browning and the Huskies to take advantage of a Buckeyes defense that allowed an average of 266 passing yards per game their last 9 games of the season. In fact, looking at Ohio's State's last 6 games they only had one truly impressive defensive performance (versus Michigan State). In the Buckeyes other 5 games dating back to mid-October they allowed an average of 38.8 points per game. That includes 6 overtime points allowed in the Maryland game but even adjusting for that the Buckeyes allowed an average of 37.6 points in those 5 games. You can see why we're expecting plenty of points here as the Ohio State defense struggled as the season went on but, of course, they have an extremely potent offense! Another way to look at it is this way: With the total set at 57.5 and Ohio State -6.5 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 32-25 range. We like Buckeyes to score more than 32 and the Huskies to score more than 25. Washington State's last 3 games played with 2 or more weeks of rest between games have gone 3-0 to the OVER. In terms of additional technical support, the Huskies are also 3-0 to the over when they are a neutral field dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Ohio State is 6-2 to the over this season when off a win over a Big Ten foe. The Buckeyes big win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship wrapped up a season-ending 3-game run that saw Ohio State score an average of 53 points per game (50.7 ppg adjusting out the 7 points in the OT win versus the Terrapins). Considering all of the above, this should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here. |
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12-30-18 | Browns +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NFL PLAY ON Cleveland +7.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Aren’t you wondering why the oddsmakers have not made this line higher than it is? Shouldn’t the Ravens, who must win to get in be a TD chalk at home? The oddsmakers reluctance to move this to minus -7 tells us enough as they can’t afford to put it on a key number and get pounded by the sharps. The Browns with Baker Mayfield continue to play well with a 5-1 SU record their last six games. A win here gives the Browns their first winning season since 2007 which is a big deal for Cleveland. Cleveland dominated the Bengals last week in a 8-point win but the Browns outgained Cincy by nearly 300 yards. The Browns offense is averaging more than 7YPPL in 4 of their last six games and have averaged over 8YPPL twice. The Ravens win and get in but winning by this margin is tough to ask. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with Lamar Jackson at QB and they’ve done it with a dominating ground game averaging 219YPG their last six. The Browns though have a solid rush defense that has been much better of late. In the past three weeks the Browns have faced the Panthers and Bronco’s rush offenses that rank in the top 11 of the league in rushing yards per game. The Browns held the Panthers to just 96 yards rushing and Denver to 32. The Ravens were just favored by -8.5 points at home over Tampa who is far worse that the Browns at this point. Make the smart play here and grab the points. |
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -14 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Kansas City -14 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Chiefs need this game to lock up the AFC West. A loss could send them all the way down to the wildcard. We expect them to put up huge numbers offensively against a Raider defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.2. These two met 4 weeks ago and KC put up 40 points and Mahomes had a huge day with 4 TD passes. KC was up 17 in the 4th quarter in that game and the Oakland offense rallied and put up 33 points for the game. While we anticipate similar numbers from KC here (40+ points) we do not think Oakland will play nearly as well on offense. It’s a bad spot for the Raiders coming off a huge Monday night win over Denver in what might have been the final game ever in Oakland. Now on a short week in a meaningless game on the road we look for the Raiders to just go through the motions as they play out the final game of the season. The Raiders had a similar situation a few weeks ago when they upset Pittsburgh at home only to go on the road the next week and lose 30-16 to the lowly Bengals. The Oakland offense has been OK at home this year but on the road they’ve done next to nothing. They have not topped 23 points on the road this season and they are averaging just 15 PPG away from home this season. Their last 4 road losses have all come by at least 2 TD’s and two of those losses were Cincinnati & San Fran, two of the worst teams in the league. They have been held to 17 or less in 4 of their 7 road games. That won’t come close to getting it done here against the potent and motivated Chiefs. This one will get ugly. |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line opened Buffalo -3 now up to -4.5 and even -5 at spots which we feel is justified. Miami was eliminated from playoffs last week as they couldn’t beat a bad Jax team at home losing 17-7 so we don’t expect much of an effort here. We do feel Buffalo will be motivated here off a loss in New England and playing with revenge against the Dolphins from a loss a few weeks back. In that earlier meeting in Miami the Fins won 21-17 as -3.5 point favorites but were outgained 415 yards to 175 yards by the Bills and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game. Miami was a “fake” 7-7 heading into last week as they had been outgained in 9 straight games and they are minus 100 YPG on the season (Buffalo -5 YPG for comparison). The Bills are 3-4 SU their last 7 games but have outgained those 7 opponents by combined 578 yards (+82 YPG). The Dolphins are 30th in total offense (294 YPG) while Buffalo is 2nd in total defense (298 YPG) so don’t expect Miami to have any success offensively today. Miami is just 1-6 SU on the road with all 6 losses coming by at least 10 points. Will Miami be motivated in cold weather (30 degrees) now that they are out of playoffs? We bet not! Play on the Bills minus the points. |
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12-29-18 | Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 76.5 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
#253/254 ASA 10* CFB PLAY ON OVER – Alabama vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - ORANGE BOWL - Oklahoma ranks 102nd in total defense so this will be the 3rd worst defense Bama has faced this season. The two teams they played that are ranked lower in total defense were Ole Miss (116th) and Louisville (126th) and the Tide put up 62 & 51 points in those 2 games. As we go a bit further, Bama played a total of 4 teams this year ranked 75th or worse in total defense and they scored 65, 62, 57, and 51 points in those 4 games. We expect Alabama to put up similar numbers on Saturday vs a terrible Sooner defense that gave up big points to nearly everyone on their schedule. They allowed at least 33 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and allowed 40+ in 5 of those games. That includes a bad Kansas offense who scored 40 on this defense. The Okie defense will now face the BEST offense they’ve taken on this season as Bama ranks 2nd nationally in YPP putting up 7.6. Who ranks first in YPP offense? Oklahoma at 8.6 YPP. So while we expect Bama to run up huge numbers here, the Sooners will get theirs as well. The Tide have impressive defensive numbers but they haven’t faced an offense like this OU unit. The best offense Bama has faced in Georgia and they average a full 100 less per game than Oklahoma. Georgia scored 28 points and put up 450 yards on Bama. We think Oklahoma tops both of those numbers which should put this one over rather easily despite the high number. Look at it this way, with the total set at 77 and Bama -14 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 45-31 range. We like Bama to score more than 45 and Oklahoma to score more than 31. These two have combined to play 26 games this year and they are 19-6-1 to the OVER. This should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here. |