ASA play on: OVER 40.5 Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday 8PM ET – We cashed an easy Over win yesterday on the Texans versus Lions and we expect a similar outcome today on the Seahawks/Vikings game. Money and line indicators clearly point to a higher scoring game. Last week the Seahawks offensive starters didn’t see the field, yet the Hawks racked up over 300 yards of total offense against a Denver defense that was one of the best in the NFL last year. QB Russell Wilson is expected to play into the second quarter this week then make way for Paxton Lynch who was 11 of 15 last week. The Vikings defense allowed nearly 340 yards, 27 first downs and 25-points last week to the Saints so expect the Seahawks to score here too. Minnesota’s newly revamped offense looked fantastic last week as the first team O started the game with an 8-play, 76-yards drive that led to a TD. Vikes QB Cousons was 4 for 4 with a TD pass. Minnesota put up 460 total yards of offense against a Saints defense that was better than the Seahawks a year ago. The clincher here is that we have two coaches with a strong history of trying to win meaningless preseason games. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is 18-4 SU in the NFLX while Carroll of the Seahawks is 23-14. With both teams playing to win you can bet it will be higher scoring. Bet OVER!

ASA play on: OVER 40.5 Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans, Saturday 8PM ET – These two teams have been holding a joint practice this week and both are coming off different showings from Week #1. While the Texans lost in Green Bay in the preseason opener, they looked good doing so. The Texans racked up 29 first downs, 138 rushing yards and 274 passing yards which was good for 26 points. Houston got their starters roughly 90 reps against the Lions this week so their play will be limited, if at all, for tonight’s game but that’s not a bad thing for our Over wager. Texans QB Webb III played well in the opener by going 25 of 40 for 286 yards. He’ll see extended minutes again here as the Texans lack QB depth. Plus, he’ll face a Lions defense that was torched by the Patriots in their exhibition opener. You would think the Patriots former defensive coordinator, Lions current head coach Matt Patricia, would have a good game-plan against his former team? Not so much! The Pats put up an obscene 459 total yards of offense and 31-points against Detroit. Concerning defensive “genius” Patricia. The Lions ranked 27th in the NFL in defensive efficiency last year while the Patriots jumped from 31st in 2017 to 16th last year in his first season removed from defensive coordinator. We do expect to see the Lions offensive starters including QB Matt Stafford here for a few series here against the Texans second unit. After an abysmal offensive showing in Week 1 (less than 100 total yards) we expect the Lions to be focused on a better output here. After staying Under the total in Week 1 last year the Lions went Over in three straight with 47, 63 and 52 total points scored. The bet here is OVER!

ASA play UNDER 36 Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks, Thursday 10:00 PM ET – The Broncos have a game under their belt as they faced the Falcons in the Hall of Fame game. Denver managed just 188 total yards of offense on 57 plays for a 3.29 yards per play average. It’s only preseason but when you consider the Falcons had the 27th ranked YPPL defense a year ago in the regular season, allowing 6.0YPPL, it’s not a great sign for Denver. The Broncos have a new offensive coordinator in his first year as an OC so there is going to be a slow learning curve for the players and coaches. We don’t expect the Broncos to jeopardize starting QB Flacco more than a series if at all this week which means the QB rotation will be Drew Lock, Kevin Hogan and Brett Rypien who combined for 17 of 29 passing and just 93 yards last week. Denver is a run first offense so don’t expect to see a wide-open approach to this meaningless preseason game. The Broncos averaged 17 yards per point last year which ranked them 27th in the NFL last season. Seattle took a step back defensively last season (14th in defensive efficiency) which was an aberration as this unit has ranked in the top 10 in D.E.F.F. in six of the last eight seasons. In summary, the Broncos will have a hard time moving the football here and scoring points. So that leaves us with the Seahawks putting up points against Denver. The Broncos defense did not play well last week against the Falcons and we expect a drastic improvement from that game to this one. New head coach Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL and is the guy that orchestrated the Bears incredible defense last season. He inherits a Denver defense that was 5th best in the league last year by our metrics. The Broncos defense faced seven offenses that ranked 9th or better in the NFL last season, including the Chiefs (twice) who were #1, Rams once #2 and the Chargers (twice) who were 3rd.  Seattle is playing their opening preseason game and will have most of their regulars on the bench here including Russell Wilson who makes this offense go. As of this writing QB Geno Smith is the #2 guy behind Wilson but he sat out practice this week with a minor knee injury. That means former Broncos QB Paxton Lynch could play 3 quarters Thursday, which is great for the Under bettors. Under Pete Carroll, in games #1 and #2 of the exhibition season, the Seahawks have stayed Under the total in 7 of ten the past five years. Volume of money, bets and line movements have us on the Under 36 here.

ASA play UNDER 34.5 Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons, 8PM ET Thursday H.O.F. Game – The public money flowed in on the Over when this game opened with a number of 34 posted on the game. Even with a sizeable investment by public bettors the line has not fluctuated up any. That ‘tell’ has us on the bet the oddsmakers don’t want us to make here, the Under! On the field we have several new coaches trying to implement new systems and it’s going to take more time for players to get on the same page. Atlanta has a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter who is replacing Steve Sarkisian. The Falcons offense will be directed by young QB Benkert who was 28 of 64 for 347 total yards and 4 INT’s last preseason. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn doesn’t put much emphasis on exhibition games as he’s 4-12 SU lifetime. Last year Atlanta managed just 27 total points in four games. Quinn will take over the defense this year so we should see an improvement on that side of the football after ranking near the bottom of the league in several key categories. Taking over in Denver is Vic Fangio who is known for his defensive prowess. Fangio was the DC in Chicago last year which had the #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit in the NFL. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. The Broncos also have a new OC in Rich Scangarello who is making his debut as an offensive coordinator after a 2-year stint as a quarterback coach in San Francisco. In other words, a new system means a longer learning curve and slower results to start the season. Not to mention we will see a heavy dose of unproven QB’s for the Broncos with Drew Lock, Kevin Hogan and Brett Rypien. Denver had the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL last year and will only get better this season which will make if very tough for Atlanta to score on tonight. Any way we cut it we don’t see these two teams scoring more than 28 total points. The bet here is UNDER.