Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show | |
My favorite play in the Super Bowl is the first quarter under. When you look at the Super Bowl, you see these teams thrown off a bit because of the longer pregame and the longer commercial breaks. Football players are creatures of habit so it may take some time for both sides to get into a rhythm. In my scenario, San Francisco receives the ball and goes on a time consuming drive leaving Kansas City very little time for a rebuttal. As long as both teams don't score TD's I think we're good. I like it less if it's 10, but at 10.5 points fire away. Trae Young -0.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards -- Trae Young is taking on the Mavericks and is coming off a tremendous effort against the Sixers where he had 39 pts, 18 assists and 6 rebounds. He averages 28.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg and 9 apg on the road which is good for around 41. Emmanuel Sanders just hasn't been part of the game plan the past few weeks. He's more of the possession type receiver and I think Bourne and Deebo Samuel are more involved. Take a shot with Young out-performing Sanders yards. |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 3 m | Show | |
There was a money move on the over and I think it was what I needed to push me towards the under. I think some of that move is because of Aaron Rodgers and the mystique surrounding him. Green Bay lost 37-8 to the 49ers way back on November 24th in a game that saw Rodgers struggle and San Fran get whatever they wanted. There's been some personnel changes since then that have made the 49ers and Packers even a bit stronger. Nick Bosa will have his best friend Dee Ford with him up front and the duo was in the top 15 of PFF's pass rushing grades when they played together. Jimmy Garoppolo was really efficient and the run game grinded out 5.1 yards per carry in that one. Joe Staley will be available for this one and he wasn't in the last meeting when Green Bay had three sacks. On the other side you've got the Packers whose defense has allowed 23 points or less in six straight contests since the MNF loss. They've been better against the run and have put together some solid performances in the secondary. Yes, Rodgers is scary when it comes to the postseason, but I'm guessing there will be a plan for Davante Adams. GB has gone under in 10 of their 17 contests this season including six of their last eight. This one just feels like a 24-20 contest. ** I'd also consider the Niners in the 1st quarter especially if it's anything less then -3. I'm just not as much of a buyer on the Packers as others are ** |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 24-35 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 27 m | Show | |
Going off the recency effect, people are jumping on the over as they saw KC put up over 50 points on Houston. They also saw these two play in Nashville back in November with a score of 35-32 going to the Titans. That game saw Patrick Mahomes throw for 446 yards and three touchdowns while Derrick Henry ran for 188 yards and two TDs. Fast forward to now and we're seeing an improved KC defense and a Tennessee team that has some intriguing pieces. These two played in KC in the playoffs back in January of 2018 that saw the Titans win 23-22. They ran the ball a ton in that one and controlled the clock. The same didn't occur back in November which I think the Titans will want to change. I can see Tennessee running it even more then they usually do because the best defense against Mahomes is not allowing him to have the ball. During this playoff run, the Titans have run it 77 times to just 31 passes. It's going to be a hold your nose situation because points will be scored here, but I think the under is definitely in play. ** I'd wait til Sunday to make this selection and see if it goes up a little bit more for some value. ** |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 47 | 23-28 | Loss | -103 | 90 h 6 m | Show | |
It's going to be bitterly cold in Green Bay as the Packers and Seahawks play in Lambeau Field. Green Bay has gone under in four straight and seven of their last eight games as the offense has failed to produce a ton and the defense has been fantastic. Aaron Rodgers has had a mixed bag season so far and I don't know if the run game is good enough to threaten Seattle's vulnerable defense. Green Bay down the stretch has held five straight opponents to 20 points or less. The lineup of offenses outside of Minnesota are not that great with the Giants, Skins, Bears and Lions joining the Vikes. Their pass rush is going to give Russell Wilson fits I think especially if they keep him in the pocket. On the Seattle side, the offense has scored 21 points or less in three straight and five of their last seven. They arguably shouldn't be in this game if not for a dirty hit on Carson Wentz. The Seahawks don't run it well so that puts a lot on the passing game and Wilson. Seattle's defense is nothing great which is a worry here on the total. Last year's game was a 27-24 Seattle win at home, but the previous meeting in September of 2017 was a 17-9 game. I see this one lining up in the middle and going under the total. |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 51 | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 87 h 33 m | Show | |
These two teams played way back on October 13th with Houston winning 31-24 after a 23-17 halftime score. Houston was able to move the ball on the ground and found some success with Deshaun Watson despite him having the turnover issue. Houston's secondary is very vulnerable and I feel like with a week off, Andy Reid will put some wrinkles in to confuse the Texans. Coming off their late bye week back in early December, KC won 40-9 against the Raiders at home. Reid has been fantastic off bye weeks and has the massive advantage over Bill O'Brien on the sidelines. On the other side KC's defensive renaissance, to me, is a product of them facing extremely weak opponents. They held the Raiders, Pats, Broncos, Bears and Chargers to 52 points and none of those are that good. I can see Pat Mahomes getting whatever he wants through the air and I can see Watson doing what he wants as well. These two played back in 2017 with KC winning in Houston 42-34. I think this one should be a shootout on Sunday. |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 68 h 6 m | Show | |
The Titans slayed New England and now have to head to Baltimore for their third straight road game. Tennessee beat the Pats 20-13 and did so by running it really well and playing stifling defense against a weaker offense. Both BAL and TEN have slanted heavily to the over this year, but I think their styles match up well for this one to go under early. Tennessee is going to want to run the ball with Derrick Henry to keep Baltimore off the field. They'll mix in some Tannehill throws, but the last three weeks they've run it 105 times to just 64 pass attempts. The Titans defense has done pretty well against the run holding seven of their last eight opponents to 140 yards on the ground or less. They've been a mixed bag when it comes to facing the pass, but there could be rain in the forecast so who knows how effective these two will be at passing it. On the Baltimore side, you've got an offense that's playing their first game with the starters since December 22nd against Cleveland. The Ravens sat their key offensive guys in the 28-10 home win over the Steelers. Baltimore is another team that wants to run it with 107 rushes and 80 passes the last three weeks that they had their starters in. The Ravens defense has held four straight opponents to 110 rushing yards or less and their secondary has been awesome since giving up 268 yards through the air to New England back in early November. I think both of these teams grind out some possessions with plenty of runs and I think there could be an early feeling out process as well.
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show | |
Everyone is throwing dirt on the Patriots after limping down the stretch to a 2-3 record. New England's offense is on a run of scoring 24 points or more in three straight games, but that is coming after a stretch scoring less than that five times. The Pats defense is coming off giving up 27 points to the Dolphins, but I think the unit will play better. At home they've held the Bills to 17, the Chiefs to 23 and the Cowboys to 9. Stephon Gilmore should be improved and have a lot of success against AJ Brown. Tennessee is really hot and a team that has a great offense statistically. It could be argued though that they haven't see a very good defense in quite awhile. Seeing a healthy diet of Houston, Oakland, Indy, Jacksonville and New Orleans down the stretch will inflate anyone's numbers. The concern for the under is if the Titans defense can slow down the Pats enough. Last year the Titans won 34-10 at home over the Pats. I just think the total is a little too high and the weather could be a bit of an issue too. |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 41 h 15 m | Show | |
The Bills and Texans start things off on Saturday in the NFL Playoffs. Buffalo's defense is holding opponents to around 16 points per game and under 300 yards per contest as well. Since allowing 31 points to the Eagles back in late October, they've given up 20 points or less seven times. It's very hard to run on Buffalo and the secondary has been pretty solid for the most part. The Bills offense concerns me as they've scored 20 points or less in four straight and five of their last six. Houston's defense isn't great, but it looks like JJ Watt is coming back which will be a huge help. They aren't good at stopping the pass but I just don't think Buffalo can take advantage. The Texans offense doesn't run it very well so that puts more pressure on Deshaun Watson. These two played in Houston last year with the home team winning 20-13. I think we see another low scoring game. 3% at 44 |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech UNDER 47.5 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
It's Bud Foster's final game as defensive coordinator for the Hokies and they get Kentucky on Tuesday. The Wildcats offense is predicated on Lynn Bowden Jr's mobility and the ground game. Last month they ran the ball an average of 51 times per game. VT has the 27th ranked rushing defense and has held their last seven opponents to less than 150 rushing yards. Normally I'd be worried that Caleb Farley is not a guarantee for Tech because he's their best corner but he wouldn't be very busy anyways. Power 5 teams averaged just under 20 points per game against UK's defense. The Hokies offense is solid, but very one dimensional. They can't run it very well even with the return of Jalen Holston so that puts more on Hendon Hooker who has been very good down the stretch. He's got amazing receivers with everyone healthy now. The Wildcats have the 2nd best pass rush by the numbers in the SEC. Another key factor is that both teams have amazing punters which will help the under and make each team have to drive long drives in order to score. I just don't know how either team gets to 24 points unless there's a massive turnover issue which neither team has. Give me the under here. |
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan v. Western Kentucky UNDER 54.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 45 m | Show | |
The Hilltoppers boast the best scoring defense in Conference USA and have allowed just 20.1 points per game in 12 games. WKU allowed an average of 137.3 yards rushing per game. The group features C-USA Defensive Player of the Year DeAngelo Malone, who was tied for fourth in the country with 21 tackles for loss and 11th in the nation with 11.5 sacks when receiving the honor. Only two schools ran for 200 yards on the Hilltoppers this year and they were the two power five schools on Western Kentucky’s schedule. The problems for the Toppers come on offense where they are just okay. They want to run it and use their superiority up front. Western Michigan's offense is going to be one of the best WKU has seen this season. They have popped off quite a bit this season, but they've also failed to see too many defenses like this. The Broncos want to run the ball which will take some time off the clock. WMU has gone under in eight of their 12 games while Western Kentucky has gone under in half of their contests. I think this one features a bit more ball control. |
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12-29-19 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 47 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show | |
There are games in week 17 where neither team cares and plenty of points are scored. We saw that in week 16 with the Skins/Giants and Bengals/Dolphins contests. These two played in Atlanta back on November 24th with the Bucs winning 35-22 on the road. Since then the Falcons have scored 18, 40, 29 and 24 as Matt Ryan tries to finish with a flourish. The Atlanta defense has played well as of late, but the over has gone over in three of it's last five. On the other side, Tampa Bay saw it's streak of 28 points or more scored end at four straight after they only put up 20 on the Texans at home. Jameis Winston was in a giving mood once again and is part of the reason why the over is always so live. Winston is playing for his future and to keep up as the defense has struggled against the pass. They are in decent form right now, but once again in this final game, I think we get a back and forth contest. |
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12-21-19 | Weber State v. James Madison UNDER 47 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 93 h 47 m | Show | |
I missed the value of 51 on this one, but I still think we see an under in JMU/Weber State game. The Dukes offense was uncharacteristically sloppy last week in the win over Northern Iowa. The thing is that their defense was lock down once again. JMU's front line with Greene, Daka and Carter is immense and will shut down run games. I think the Dukes will improve on offense, but once again Weber State is going to struggle to score. Weber's offense did just enough last week in the snow against Montana. They have a very mediocre quarterback in Jake Constantine who nearly has as many interceptions as he does touchdowns. They have a mediocre run game and some decent weapons on the outside, but what the Wildcats are known for is their defense. They held San Diego State to just six points in week one and then a few weeks later did solid work against Nevada. I think this one could be a bit of a field position battle. I liked it a lot more at 51 but at 47, I think it's still worth a look. I can see a 31-10 type game. |
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12-21-19 | Montana State v. North Dakota State UNDER 47 | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 17 m | Show | |
These two teams have a ton of similarities. NDSU is No. 5 in the FCS with 285.9 rushing yards per game and Montana State is No. 7 with 265.9, but neither team has a 1,000-yard rusher. The Bobcats are No. 9 with 107.1 rushing yards allowed per game while the Bison are No. 30 with 134.7. The Bison have 41 sacks and have allowed 12. MSU has 41 sacks and have allowed 13. These two teams want to move the ball on the ground and I don't know if they'll be successful. In their last three games, the defending champions are averaging 22.3 PPG and 363.0 YPG. Montana State is averaging nearly 40 points per game over that same span as well. I think it's a field position battle between these two. I don't know if someone gets to 27 so I'm feeling it could be a 21-10 game. The one worry is that the Bison snap out of their doldrums and blow this thing out, but I just don't see that happening. ** I'd play this down to 45 or so. If you wait maybe the total sails up a bit and there's more value ** |
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12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 15 m | Show | |
Seattle hits the road to play the vulnerable Carolina offense on Sunday. The Seahawks are coming off a 28-12 loss in a flat spot against the Rams last time out. This team's offense has scored 27 or more in four of their last six and should use plenty of Chris Carson against a very porous Carolina defense. Seattle's defense is pretty bad and yet people aren't talking about it. They've given up 24 points or more in four of their last five. The Panthers have gone over in three straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Kyle Allen has reverted back to the mean as of late and is struggling right now. Still, with Christian McCaffrey as a threat, Carolina has scored 20 or more in three straight games. I just think this one is an over on Sunday with both teams putting up some points in a probable Seattle win. |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy UNDER 41 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 41 h 47 m | Show | |
Before the season began, the line for this game was a pick'em according to the Westgate because Army was supposed to be really good with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Navy was supposed to struggle considering how few starters they had back on defense. Well the script has been flipped for this one with the Naval Academy playing in a bowl game and Army being massively disappointing. In this battle of triple option teams you've got Hopkins and Jabari Laws under center vs. Malcolm Perry for Navy with the edge clearly going to the squad with the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The problems for Army come on the defensive side of the ball although they did have a decent stretch of games against Air Force, UMass and VMI. Navy's defense allowed 121 points their last three games against Notre Dame, SMU and Houston, but Army's not as explosive. The under is about as close to an instabet in this series as could possibly be. These two teams won't allow for a ton of possessions due to the triple option and the familiarity each has with it. Yes, Navy can throw it more and that's something to consider, but the nature of this game lends to no one really running away with it. There's been one game that has been decided by more than one score since 2011 and that came in 2013 when Navy won 34-7. I know what's at stake and I know that Army has won three straight, but I just think this is way too many points in another potential one possession contest. |
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12-13-19 | Northern Iowa v. James Madison UNDER 46 | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
James Madison hosts Northern Iowa on Friday night at 7 o clock on ESPN2. The Dukes average nearly 500 yards of offense as they feature a full backfield with several running backs and an efficient passing attack led by Ben DiNucci. It's a little tough to take an under with this team because they've scored a ton on everyone. This squad also third in total defense and features a ferocious front line and a stout secondary. UNI is 11th in the FCS in total defense and 14th in scoring defense. The Panthers allowed only 220 yards against South Dakota State and 213 against San Diego. They've played road games in Ames Iowa and Fargo North Dakota so they won't be intimidated by Harrisonburg. The common thread for a lot of the steps up in competition for the Panthers is a lack of offense. They put up 26 on Iowa State in week 1, 14 on North Dakota State and 13 on South Dakota State last week. The worry is that they go three and out a ton and the game gets away from them. There's also going to be some precipitation in the forecast which could effect some things. I don't think JMU will be worried about it because they are balanced, but maybe it causes issues for UNI. I'll take my chances with the under in this one. |
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12-08-19 | Broncos v. Texans UNDER 43 | 38-24 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
It's Drew Lock's first true road game of his NFL career as they take on the Houston Texans. Denver's offense looked competent for the first time in a few weeks against the Chargers in a 23-20 win. The Broncos have struggled to run it and are relying on a rookie on the road. The good thing for Denver is that this defense has been awesome. Over the last nine weeks, they've allowed more then 25 points just three times. Their secondary is one of the best and their run defense for the most part has been strong. For Houston, this is an epic sandwich spot coming of a home division win followed by a Sunday night spotlight win over New England. They've gone under in four of their last five with the defense playing better and the offense showing some inconsistency. With a big road game against Tennessee on deck, I wonder if focus is an issue in this one for the home team. Last year these two played a 19-17 game in Denver with the Texans winning despite less than 300 yards of offense. Denver has gone under in 15 of their last 24 as an underdog and 14 of their last 22 on the road. Houston has gone under in 14 of their last 23 at home including four of six this season. Give me the under here. |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 47 | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Carolina moves on without their head coach Ron Rivera. From what it sounds like, the locker room wasn't too thrilled with that decision. Is it Rivera's fault that the defense has given up 92 points the last three weeks? I think Kyle Allen has been exposed a bit as of late and that's stopped the offense even though they scored 52 points the last two weeks. These two teams played in Carolina with Atlanta winning 29-3 back on November 17th. The Falcons offense gets a boost with the return of Julio Jones and Austin Hooper as well as a key offensive lineman up front. The defense was solid last week against the Saints, but I'm not buying them still. Carolina has gone over in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. |
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12-07-19 | Virginia v. Clemson OVER 54.5 | 17-62 | Win | 100 | 67 h 42 m | Show | |
The ACC Championship figures to be a blowout on Saturday night as Clemson takes the final step towards another playoff berth. The Tigers are averaging over 45 points per game as a unit while putting up almost 550 yards. Their coach Dabo Swinney has played the disrespect card and will want to use this platform to remind everyone how good they are. The best thing for this matchup is how banged up UVA is in the secondary. They let Hendon Hooker throw all over them last week and his attack is nowhere near as good as Trevor Lawrence. Travis Etienne should be able to find some holes against this front seven. On the other side, Clemson's defense is putting up epic numbers, but I think they are facing their best offense of the season in the Wahoos. UVA is averaging over 30 points per game and features Bryce Perkins who is the 2nd best QB in the ACC. UVA has scored 30 points or more in four straight and five of their last six. I think Perkins will be able to keep Clemson honest enough. The Hoos have gone over in eight of their 12 games this year. I just see a lot of points in this on one Saturday. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia v. LSU UNDER 55 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 63 h 16 m | Show | |
The winner of this SEC game will get their spot in the FBS playoffs. The Tigers are 12-0 and are putting up almost 50 points per game. Joe Burrow and this offense have scored 45 or more in four straight games, but outside of Alabama, I'm not too impressed with the defenses they've faced. Georgia allowed 151 rushing yards against three ranked foes, and it held Notre Dame and Florida under 50. LSU's defense has struggled at times, but I'm really not that scared of Georgia's offense. The Bulldogs put up 52 on a bad Georgia Tech team, but scored 67 points the previous three weeks and have been inconsistent on that side of the ball. Lawrence Cager got hurt and George Pickens is out for the first half after getting ejected last week. D'Andre Swift is the team's star running back, but he's not 100%. UGA's run defense has been awesome the past few weeks and the secondary has it's moments. Last year LSU won this game 36-16 at home with a 16-0 halftime score. |
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12-07-19 | Kennesaw State v. Weber State UNDER 56.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 62 h 3 m | Show | |
Kennesaw State is coming off a 28-21 road win at Wofford in round one of the FCS playos. In that game, quarterback Tommy Bryant suffered a leg injury and backup Jonathan Murphy came in to rush for 206 yards and three touchdowns. This team wants to run it as they average nearly 350 yards on the ground per game. Kennesaw has held seven opponents to 20 points or less and nearly knocked off their FBS opponent Kent State 26-23 in overtime. Another factor to consider here is that this will be their fourth road game over their last five. Weber State has had the week off to prepare for this one and is ninth in the FCS with 107.3 rushing yards allowed per game. They've held seven opponents to 20 points or less and are very familiar with the triple option as they've seen Cal Poly four straight years. Over the last four seasons, the Wildcats have held Cal Poly to an average of 12 points less and 128 rushing yards less than their usual scoring and rushing averages. I just think we see a lot of rushing and some long possessions. Give me the under here. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Thursday Night Football features Dallas traveling to Chicago. The Bears had a five game under streak snapped last time out when they squeaked over the low total in Detroit against the Lions. Chicago has struggled to score all season long as Mitch Trubisky has had his issues. He may have come out of those struggles the last two weeks, but that was against some weak secondaries. We do know Chicago's defense has been as fierce as they have in the past holding four straight teams to 20 points or less. On the Dallas side, they've gone under in two straight as the offense scored just 24 points against playoff level New England and Buffalo. The run game has lost it's effectiveness as the team asks Dak Prescott to throw it more. Dallas' defense has been very hot and cold as teams start running on them. The Cowboys have held six straight teams to 250 yards passing or less. The Bears have gone under in 16 of their last 23 home contests including five of six this year. I lean heavily to the under as I think we could see both teams struggle to score here. |
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12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars OVER 47 | 28-11 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm really having a hard time buying Jameis Winston in this one. Tampa has won two of their last three, but the defense is absolutely atrocious. The Bucs are allowing 30.5 points per game and almost 300 yards through the air per contest. Tampa Bay is 3-8 against the spread this season and I'm just not getting this line move. Jacksonville is a very hard team to back right now as they've lost three straight. The last two weeks Nick Foles has thrown it a bunch of times and they've lost track of Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville's defense has been getting crushed by the run and has been very good against the pass. Since September 29th, they've allowed just two QBs to throw over 250 yards. The Bucs have covered just eight of their last 22 road games. I think this one is a bit extreme so give me the value with the home team. |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
The Colts have lost three of their last four as they host the Titans on Sunday. Indy will be without Marlon Mack once again as well as T.Y. Hilton which puts a little more pressure on the ground game they want to try and rev up. This team has scored less then 20 points four times in their last seven games as they ask Jacoby Brissett to do less on offense. The Colts defense consistently continues to come up big. It's hard to run on this team which could make things difficult on Derrick Henry. Since allowing 188 yards on the ground to the Raiders, the Colts have held every team to under 115 rushing yards. Tennessee's offense is hot, but they were home and facing some terrible defenses. Ryan Tannehill has done some great stuff for this side of the ball, but I think they struggle here. The Titans defense is very good against the run and I think both sides have mediocre skill position guys. Way back on September 15th these two teams played in Tennessee with the Colts winning 19-17, but Mariota was under center and Mack and Hilton played. I think this one is a field position game and an under on Sunday. |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
The line has gone up two points in the Bills/Cowboys game and I think it gives us some value on the under. Buffalo wants to run the ball ideally and that's going to grind some clock, because Josh Allen doesn't have a ton of weapons and he's a little jittery still in the pocket. This team has gone under in three of their last four because the defense has been solid. They've held each of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. Now, outside of Cleveland, they held down Washington, Miami and Denver who don't exactly have a ton of weapons. Buffalo has tightened up their run defense and of course have a stout secondary with Tre'davious White who will shadow Amari Cooper. The Cowboys offense is very capable of scoring a ton of points, but they are coming off a disappointing effort in New England. The run game just hasn't been the same the last three weeks so I can see them grinding it out with Zeke. Dallas' defense is weaker without Leighton Vander Esch, but once again, I'm not a huge believer in Buffalo's O. The Bills have gone under in 16 of their last 22 road games including 14 of their last 18 as a road underdog. They've gone under in eight of 11 overall this year. Give me the under here. |
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11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 38.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Thanksgiving in Detroit as the Lions host the Bears. The two teams played just a few weeks ago when we had the under in a 20-13 Chicago home win. Since then the Bears have played two more unders as they lost 17-7 to the Rams and beat the Giants 19-14. Mitch Trubisky still hasn't figured out this offense and he most likely won't have Taylor Gabriel. The offense has scored over 20 points just twice the last two months. Defensively Chicago has been it's usual fantastic self. Since giving up 36 at home to the Saints, Chicago has allowed 83 points over the last five weeks. I just don't know how much the Lions will get going offensively against Khalil Mack especially if Jeff Driskel is not 100%. David Blough is his backup and that means that he'll be under siege against that pass rush. The Lions defense scares me because they've been getting crushed lately, but once again, can Mitch Trubisky take advantage. Last year this game in Detroit was a 23-16 game which of course goes over this number, but still, it was low scoring and ugly. Give me the under in this one. |
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11-24-19 | Cowboys v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
The Patriots should have lost last week to the Eagles. New England managed around 300 yards of offense, but Tom Brady was constantly harassed and didn't look comfortable. Thankfully for the Pats, their defense continues to be stout and it's what is keeping them with only one loss. Dallas is playing their third road game this month and they are coming off a 35-27 road win at Detroit. The Cowboys have not been able to get their run game on track the last two weeks. Thankfully for them, Dak Prescott has been on target. With these two defenses figuring to be the strongest units, I lean to the under. New England has gone under in 29 of their last 48 overall while Dallas has one under in 12 of their last 22 road games. Give me the under here. |
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11-24-19 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 52 | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay has gone over in eight straight games and I think they do so again on Sunday. The Bucs offense is averaging 27.7 points per game, but they are also giving up over 30 and a lot of that is because they can't stop anyone through the air. Not only that, Jameis Winston is the gift that gives in both directions with touchdown passes and interceptions for touchdowns. He's always good for an interception or two that gives opponents short fields or touchdowns. Atlanta has won two straight and it's because the offense has played better and the defense has been lights out. I'm not a believer that their D is suddenly as good as allowing 12 points in their last two contests. They gave up 27 to Seattle, 37 to the Rams and 24 to Tennessee at home before that. I think Matt Ryan will be able to connect with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley early and often. Last year these two teams played a 34-29 contest in Atlanta and a 34-32 one in Tampa Bay. Give me the over in yet another Tampa contest. |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 38 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is such an odd spot for Pittsburgh as it lands in between a pair of games against the Browns. The Steelers offense was absolutely brutal in Cleveland 10 days ago as they put up seven points and had under 250 yards of offense. They will not have James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster or Maurkice Pouncey in the front line so I don't know how Pittsburgh will score. Mason Rudolph has been exposed as a guy who can't throw deep and doesn't have a ton of weapons. This team has gone under in two straight and four of their last five as the defense has been fantastic. It's hard to run on them and four straight teams have thrown for less then 200 yards. Cincinnati has scored less then 20 points in five straight games as Ryan Finley has shown he's not the answer. Because of that, teams are stacking the box to stop Joe Mixon. The Bengals defense is not the greatest, but they held the Raiders to 17 last week. The Steelers have gone under in 16 of their last 19 on the road. |
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11-23-19 | Nevada v. Fresno State UNDER 51.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
Fresno State is a ridiculously banged up bunch right now and I think Nevada has a chance to pick them off. The Wolf Pack are coming off a bye week after winning two in a row over New Mexico and San Diego State. One could say the bye week screwed up their mojo, but I'd like to think it helped focus them up more. The team has struggled to run it and is getting just enough in the passing game to win. Defensively Nevada is playing well against the pass and has held up okay against the run. Fresno State has lost two straight and three of their last four. The defense is riddled with injuries and the offense is just not getting much going especially since the offensive line has a ton of injuries. Fresno State has started three centers, three left tackles and four left guards. I'll take a shot on the under. Nevada has gone under in four straight and six of their last eight. Fresno scored seven points last week vs. San Diego State. Give me the under here. |
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11-23-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma OVER 65 | 24-28 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Oklahoma is coming off a highly emotional win over Baylor on the road and now they host TCU on Saturday. The Sooners offense is averaging 47 points per game while the defense has allowed 120 points over their last three contests. You can beat OU's defense and one has to wonder if there will be a hangover after last week. TCU has lost four of their last six, but they've gone over the total in four straight and seven of their last eight. The Horned Frogs offense was humming last week in the 33-31 win over Texas Tech in which they put up almost 600 yards of offense. TCU's problem is on defense where they've allowed 24 or more in six straight contests. The last two years these two have played games with scores of 41-17 and 52-27. Quite simply, I think this one will see a lot of points. |
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11-23-19 | Duke v. Wake Forest UNDER 50 | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
Wake Forest has their final home game of the season as they host Duke. The offense has collapsed with the loss of WRs Surratt and Washington and it showed last week against Clemson. Jamie Newman was harassed into all sorts of issues. He does still have Kendall Hinton, but it's just not the same. It's a worry that Wake plays with a bit of pace, but that doesn't matter if you are going three and out. Wake's defense is bad, but at home they held NC State to 10 points and FSU to 20. Duke has scored just 44 points the last four weeks. Their offense has collapsed big time with Quentin Harris regressing and opponents stacking the box against the run. The Blue Devil defense has shown up at times although last week getting blasted by Syracuse was a worry. They've gone under in 12 of their last 18 as an underdog and 10 of their last 15 on the road. To me, this one should be played a little closer to the vest. The weather is going to be rainy so the passing games may be hampered a bit. I think this one is an under. |
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11-23-19 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Monroe OVER 62.5 | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
Louisiana Monroe has lost three of their last four and it's because of a very leaky defense and an offense that has gone through some awful stretches. The Warhawks have scored 115 points the last three weeks, but have also given up 130 on defense. The last four opponents have rushed for 200 yards or more on them. I really like Caleb Evans as a quarterback. He threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns two weeks ago against Georgia State and is facing a team with seven sophomores or freshmen in their top eight of the depth chart in the secondary. Coastal has lost five of their last six and it's because of a lot of injuries too. They have allowed 28 or more in seven straight contests as you can torch them in the secondary. The Chanticleers have gone over in 10 of their last 18 on the road. The last two scores in this series were 51-43 and 45-20. Give me the over here. |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 50 | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
The Saints and Bucs met in New Orleans back on October 6th and the Saints won 31-24 and that was with Teddy Bridgewater under center. New Orleans had the oddest loss of the season last week falling 26-9 to Atlanta at home. In that one they ran for just 52 yards and didn't manage a touchdown against one of the worst defenses in the league. Even worse for New Orleans, they will be without Marshon Lattimore which means Mike Evans could go crazy. Tampa Bay has scored 64 points the last two weeks against the Seahawks and Cardinals. This team has gone over in seven straight because the offense is rolling and the defense has allowed 30 or more five times. The Bucs secondary is very vulnerable with six of their last eight opponents throwing for over 300 yards against them. This one seems like an over to me. |
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11-17-19 | Cowboys v. Lions UNDER 47 | 35-27 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Detroit is playing Jeff Driskel once again as they host Dallas on Sunday. The Lions have lost five of their last six games since starting out 2-0-1. Detroit's offense last week managed just 13 points and 357 yards total. Driskel is not going to scare anyone deep and this team can't run it either. The one thing I do think is that the defense can slow down Dallas enough to keep this under going. This is an odd spot for the Cowboys off two straight primetime contests with New England coming up next week. I have a feeling they will want to get Zeke Elliott going after they ran for only 50 yards against the Vikings. The Cowboys defense should be able to do some solid work against the Lions. The line has adjusted for Driskel's appearance, but not the total. Dallas has gone under in 12 of their last 21 road games. Give me the under here. |
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11-16-19 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt UNDER 43 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Two of the lesser offenses in the SEC play as Vandy hosts Kentucky. The Wildcats have gone under in six straight games as their O has gone really anemic. Kentucky has scored just 109 points over their last seven contests. A lot of that has to do with injuries at quarterback, but Sawyer Smith is healthier and Lynn Bowden is still playing at quarterback. The good thing for them is that their defense has been really good. The last three weeks this team has allowed 45 points and that included 21 in the pouring rain against Georgia. It's very hard to run on these guys and their secondary has held six straight opponents to less then 220 yards through the air. Vandy will have Riley Neal under center which will help them. The Commodores have scored 44 points the last five games and have gone under in five of their last six. Vandy's defense is nothing special, but they've spent a lot of time on the field. This team held South Carolina to 24 and Missouri to 14. Last year this was a 14-7 game with two better teams. I think we could see something similar here. |
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11-16-19 | Richmond v. James Madison OVER 54 | 6-48 | Push | 0 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
This should be a fun one in the CAA on Saturday. One has to wonder where the Spiders heads are at after blowing last week vs. Villanova. It was a 35-28 loss to the Wildcats in which Nova was able to do whatever they wanted in the second half. Richmond's offense has some potential to move the ball even on James Madison's stout defense. Joe Mancuso has been very good as a dual threat quarterback lately. The Spiders defense has talent, but on the road they've given up 45 at BC, 25 at Delaware and the aforementioned 35 to the Cats. JMU has faced five ranked opponents their last six games and they have scored 54, 27, 38, 45 and 45. They want to run it, but also have threats outside. It's a rivalry game so you know that the Dukes will score a little extra if they get the chance to. JMU overs have been very profitable to me and I'm going to keep pounding them. |
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11-16-19 | Coastal Carolina v. Arkansas State OVER 60 | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina's defense figures to get smashed in this game as their secondary has been ravaged by injuries. CCU has allowed over 700 yards through the air at home against Troy and Lafayette. The Chanticleers offense was poor last week scoring seven points. Before that, they had a stretch of six straight games scoring 21 or more. I think they can move the ball on Arkansas State who has given up 35 or more in four of their last five and five of their last seven. Even Southern Illinois put up 28 on the Red Wolves. Layne Hatcher has been great for their offense though as this team is cruising offensively. They put up 35 or more on UNLV, SIU, Troy, Georgia State, Texas State and UL-Monroe. ASU has gone over in four of their last six. This game last year was a 44-16 ASU win on the road which followed a 51-17 victory back in 2017. Coastal is 10-4-3 to the over in their last 17 road games. Give me the over here. |
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11-16-19 | Towson v. William & Mary OVER 54.5 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
Towson has won three of their last four after a three game losing streak. The Tigers offense is very capable putting up 31 each of the last two weeks at home against Delaware and on the road at Stony Brook. Tom Flacco is putting up fantastic numbers for the Tigers with 2,426 yards passing to go with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. One of his main targets is Shane Leatherbury who has 44 receptions and nine touchdown catches. Defensively, Towson is allowing over 400 yards of offense. Villanova was able to score 52, Albany 38, JMU 27 and Delaware 24. The Tribe have scored 25, 31 and 55 points their last three weeks against the likes of Maine, Elon and Rhode Island. This team continues to run the go-go offense which means that they are running a ton of plays and putting pressure on their opponents. When it doesn't work, that puts their defense early and often. They are giving up over 400 yards of offense themselves. Towson is desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive and I think this one sees a boatload of points. |
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11-16-19 | Florida v. Missouri UNDER 51.5 | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
This seems like way too many points in this game. Florida is coming off a 56-0 win at home against Vanderbilt. The Gators defense was massive and their offense was great too. UF's defense has been good for the most part outside of giving up 42 to LSU on the road. They held UGA to 24, Auburn to 13 and Tennessee to 3. The thing is Missouri's defense is also really good. The secondary has been fantastic against the pass and it matches up well with the Gators. The under has hit in seven of their last eight games. Kelly Bryant is back after missing last week, but is he going to be rusty. The Tigers scored just 21 points during their three game road stretch at Vandy, Kentucky and Georgia. I think this is way too many points and I'll take the under. |
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11-10-19 | Cardinals v. Bucs OVER 51.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Arizona has lost two straight since a three game win streak in early October. The Cardinals offense has scored 20 or more in five of their last seven games as Kyler Murray has been getting a little bit better. David Johnson is going to play so that will help. Zona's defense is brutal and Jameis Winston should be able to pick them apart. Three of their last four opponents have thrown for 300 yards or better. Plus, this is their fourth road game since October 6th so you have to wonder how they will play coming east. Tampa Bay is also coming off a rough road stretch with four of their last five away from home. The Bucs have scored 20 or more in every game but one this season. They've gone over in six straight games and I think that trend continues. Tampa's defense has been great against the run, but almost everyone has thrown on them. These two should put up some points on Sunday. |
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11-09-19 | Rhode Island v. William & Mary OVER 55.5 | 19-55 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
Rhode Island's offense has a lot of potential through the air which is good because William and Mary specializes against the run themselves. The Rams have Vito Priore under center with Aaron Parker out wide. URI's defense has given up 32.4 points per game and 438.4 yards per contest. This team has had a tough road schedule losing 41-20 at Ohio, 27-24 at New Hampshire, 34-17 at Virginia Tech and 35-28 at Albany to go along with a 31-28 win at Brown. The Tribe continue to run the go-go offense to mixed results. They've had to play some quarterback roulette with Hollis Mathis and Kilton Anderson going in and out of the lineup from time to time. Last week they won at Elon 31-29 which halted a five game losing streak. The WM defense has had a stretch of five straight opponents scoring 29 points or more. I think this one should see plenty of points. |
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11-07-19 | Temple v. South Florida OVER 49 | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Temple was 5-1 and then got blasted the last two games by SMU and UCF in games that showed their defense has problems with athletes and speed on the outside. They gave up 45 to the Mustangs on the road and 63 at home to the Knights. The defense is better then that, but they've had some odd performances on the road. The Owls allowed 38 at Buffalo, but a lot of that came after a bogus targeting penalty on Shaun Bradley. Temple's offense has been pretty consistent scoring 21 or more in all but one contest this season. They can run it a bit and can throw it with Anthony Russo and Todd Centeio. The WR corps is very strong. USF's defense can be exploited especially at home where they allowed 49 to Wisconsin and 48 to SMU. They struggle against the run with several teams rushing for 180 or more. USF's offense was supposed to be strong with Kerwin Bell coming to install his uptempo offense. They've put up 45, 3, 27 and 48 in their last four games as the run game has figured things out. The problems come with the passing attack led by freshman Jordan McCloud who has 10 touchdown passes and six interceptions. Jordan Cronkite is the guy who makes this thing go at running back. The Owls have gone over in nine of their last 15 on the road. I think this one sees plenty of points. |
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11-03-19 | Lions v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
The Lions hit the road for the first time in a few weeks to take on the Raiders. Detroit's secondary is ravaged with Quandre Diggs being traded, Tracy Walker out and Darius Slay questionable with a hamstring injury. The front line will be without Mike Daniels it looks like as well. Good thing the Lions offense has scored 27 or more in all but two contests. Matt Stafford is playing some of his best football right now and should be able to keep up in a shootout. The Raiders will be playing their first home game since September 15th so pardon them if they are a bit weary. Their offense has actually performed well with 24 points in three straight contests and that came after scoring 31 in Indianapolis. Josh Jacobs has been really good. Oakland's defense is a massive issue right now having allowed 28 points or more three times already. Detroit has gone over in four of their seven games this season. I think this one should see plenty of points. |
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11-03-19 | Bears v. Eagles UNDER 42 | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 40 h 57 m | Show | |
The Bears have lost three straight and couldn't be any lower right now with Mitch Trubisky under center. He's the human turnover machine and the offense just hasn't done much scoring over 24 points just twice as a unit. The good thing is that this defense has been nasty at times. They don't allow teams to run on them often and their secondary is pretty stout too. Philly's D is not great, but they are getting healthy in the secondary and it showed against Buffalo in the elements last week. I think the Eagles want to ground and pound here and with that, there will be less possessions. Carson Wentz just doesn't have enough weapons right now even with DeSean Jackson back. Who knows how long he'll be able to play with the injury though. The Bears have gone under in 10 of their last 18 road games and 12 of their last 18 as an underdog. I think this one is a lower scoring special teams affair. |
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11-02-19 | Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Vandy is coming off a bye week after a 21-14 win over Missouri. The Commodores offense has been underwhelming all year outside of scoring 38 on LSU. They've put up 21 or less in three straight games and four overall. The quarterback play has been poor and it's not keeping opponents honest. Vandy's defense is nothing special, but they've done a solid job against the lesser teams they've faced. South Carolina could be one of those squads as their offense has scored 21 or less four times already. Ryan Hilinski has had the ups and downs of a freshman QB. Their defense needs to be better after giving up 41 to Tennessee last time out. That can't happen against the lackluster Volunteers. The under has hit in three of their last five. Vandy has gone under in four straight and five of their seven overall. Give me the under here. |
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11-02-19 | Kansas State v. Kansas OVER 54 | 38-10 | Loss | -112 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
It's the big time rivalry game as Kansas hosts Kansas State. The Wildcats are coming off a 48-41 win at home against Oklahoma. Their offense clicked big time for the first time after three lackluster weeks. In an ideal world, they want to have some balance with the run and pass game. Still, focus could be a slight issue after the huge win last week. Since the bye, Kansas has scored 48 and 37 on Texas and Texas Tech. The offense is clicking as they play with a quicker pace and are able to move the ball. The Jayhawks defense is still hideous as all but three opponents have had no issues running the ball. Right now, you can't set Kansas totals high enough for me not to take the over. It's a perfect recipe for a shootout Saturday. |
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11-02-19 | Miami-FL v. Florida State UNDER 49 | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Miami is feeling good after picking up a sloppy 16-12 road win at Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes have won four of their last six despite struggling to score. This team has put up 21 or less in three straight and four of their last five. The defense is still having problems slowing down the run. They've actually been very good against the pass though. FSU is coming off crushing my Orange 35-17 extending their streak to five straight unders. I like their defense and the offense looked competent as well. I'm not ready to buy them playing like that consistently though. I think it was more a product of their opponent then suddenly figuring things out. Miami has gone under in 22 of their last 32 games while the Noles have gone under in five of their eight tilts this year alone. To me, this one is an under. |
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11-02-19 | Stony Brook v. Richmond OVER 51.5 | 10-30 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
Stony Brook is ranked in the FCS top 25 poll right now after winning in Villanova 36-35. The Sea Wolves were down 28-10 at halftime, but Tyquell Fields brought them back as well as Ty Son Lawton. This team also took JMU to overtime falling 45-38 at home at the beginning of October. Stony Brook won at Rhode Island 31-27 and beat Fordham 45-10. Their offense isn't in question and their defense isn't infallible. The Spiders offense is clicking right now after scoring 35 at Delaware and 27 at home against Yale. Joe Mancuso has several solid weapons at wide receiver and a defense that can be beaten as well. Richmond at home has played games with scores of 38-19, 42-20, 23-20 and 28-27. To me, this one should be another shootout. |
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10-27-19 | Giants v. Lions OVER 49.5 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
The Lions have lost three straight since a 2-0-1 start to the season. Detroit's offense hasn't been the issue scoring 27 points or more four times this season. They aren't running it well and will be without Kerryon Johnson meaning we'll get a dose of Ty Johnson and JD McKissic. Detroit's defense is getting gashed by the run the last few weeks and will be without Darius Slay as well as Quandre Diggs who got dealt to Seattle. One has to wonder how much of an effect it will be on the unit. New York has lost their last three games as the defense continues to be really leaky. They've allowed 27 or more in all but one game which was anemic Washington. Daniel Jones won't have Sterling Shepard, but Golden Tate is there and Saquon Barkley will be another week healthier. I think these two should score some points. |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills UNDER 41 | 31-13 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Eagles have dealt with a ton of crap lately on and off the field. They were smoked by their rival Dallas last week and are playing their third straight on the road. This defense has been embarrassed the last two weeks, but the Vikings and Cowboys are way better on offense then Buffalo is. Philly's offense is not doing much either during this road stretch scoring 20 against Minnesota and 10 against the Cowboys. Without DeSean Jackson there just aren't enough weapons for Carson Wentz. Buffalo's offense has scored 21 points or less four times. They can't run it particularly well and Josh Allen is making mistakes and doesn't throw it long well. Buffalo's defense has allowed 21 points or less in every game and that includes stifling the Pats to just 16 points. They should be able to get in the backfield against Philly. The under has hit in five of six Buffalo games. This one could be tight on Sunday. |
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10-27-19 | Broncos v. Colts UNDER 42 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
The Colts are 4-2 while Denver is 2-5. The Broncos have gone under in five of their seven because of their awful offense and stifling defense. Denver has scored 20 or less in three straight and six of seven overall. Joe Flacco is stale and they dealt Emmanuel Sanders. On the defensive side, this team has held all but two teams to under 100 rushing yards. No one has had success throwing it on them and as long as Chris Harris is there then things could be tough for T.Y. Hilton. Indy is coming off an emotional home win over the Texans last week, but their defense has been pretty good. The weakness is against the pass and Denver just can't do anything about that. Indy's not getting enough from the run and Jacoby Brissett won't find things to be that easy. I know we're hovering around and below the key number of 42 so that sucks, but I think this smells like a 21-10 contest. |
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10-26-19 | Texas Tech v. Kansas OVER 64.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Kansas has an offense now as they made a change at coordinator and is going a lot faster. They put up 48 points on Texas last week on the road and they had 86 plays in the loss to the Longhorns. Pooka Williams really benefits in this new system. Texas Tech's defense has allowed 28 or more in five straight games. You can throw on them and they've allowed 28, 55 and 33 on the road this year. Jett Duffey has replaced Alan Bowman pretty well so far as this team has put up 45, 30 and 24 in their last three games. The Red Raiders are showing some solid balance on offense and should be able to get what they want against a Jayhawks team with some key injuries on defense. In KU's first conference game they gave up 29 to West Virginia then allowed 51, 45 and 50 in the next three contests. The last two years this game saw scores 48-16 and 65-19. I missed the early number here, but I still think the over is in play and I think there's a shot KU gets the win as well. |
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10-26-19 | South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 47 | 21-41 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
South Carolina and Tennessee play on Saturday in a game important for bowl eligibility. The Gamecocks are 3-4 and are coming off a 38-27 loss at home to Florida. South Carolina's offense has been underwhelming for the most part scoring 24 points or less five times with one of the non contests being against Charleston Southern. The defense has sprung some leaks against the run, but has been good against the pass. Tennessee's offense is also anemic as of late. They've scored just 50 points the last four weeks against SEC competition. They have a terrible group of quarterbacks which affects the running game. The defense has done some solid work against the lesser offenses they've faced. They held Mississippi State to 10 points in Rocky Top a few weeks ago. USC has gone under in eight of their last 11 road games. Tennessee has gone under in 11 of their last 20 SEC games. Give me the under in this one. |
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10-26-19 | Tulane v. Navy UNDER 58 | 38-41 | Loss | -117 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
It's a pair of triple option teams playing each other as Navy hosts Tulane. Tulane held Army to just 363 yards of offense in a 42-33 win just a few weeks ago and Willie Fritz is very familiar with the Naval Academy's offense and how they want to run it. Tulane's going off the 47-17 loss to Memphis so we know they'll be focused and angry here as well. Last year they held Navy to just 321 yards of total offense. Two years ago Navy managed just 23 points. On the other side you've got a Midshipmen team that's got an improved defense. They don't get beat often by the run with USF's 150 yards being the most allowed all season. Now they haven't been tested through the air as much as they could be here, but I still think their secondary will hold up. It'll be interesting to see if Darius Bradwell or Corey Dauphine will be available as both were limited this week and that's the bulk of the running game. Tulane has gone under in 18 of their last 31 lined games while Navy has gone under in 17 of their last 32. I think this one is an under and I'll hesitantly go against the move to the over. |
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10-26-19 | Syracuse v. Florida State UNDER 59.5 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
A pair of 3-4 teams take the field as Florida State hosts Syracuse. These two teams are awfully similar in that their offenses have been spotty while the defenses have had to be the brunt of the opposition being constantly on the field. Tommy DeVito is not the answer for the Orange as they have lost four of their last six games. The offense has scored 25 points or less five times already this year as a bad offensive line and inconsistent skill players have doomed them. The defense was supposed to be the strength of the team, but the secondary has been ravaged by injuries. On the other side, you've got an FSU team that is going between two quarterbacks although it seems like James Blackman will get the call here. Cam Akers is a fantastic running back for the home team. Their defense has had some troubles this season although most of them have come against Boise and Clemson. Syracuse has gone under in 19 of their last 31 lined games while FSU has gone under in 13 of their last 21 ACC contests. This total seems a little too high for me. |
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10-26-19 | Elon v. Rhode Island OVER 57 | 38-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
This one could see plenty of points on Saturday. Elon is coming off a bye week after an impressive 42-7 win at home against Delaware. This team has been a mixed bag offensively as they've struggled against the better defenses they've faced putting up 10 on JMU and New Hampshire and 7 on Wake Forest. Going back even farther the team started out with 21, 35 and 42 over their first three weeks. Davis Cheek is an impressive signal caller for the Phoenix. Rhode Island is 1-6, but they are a fun 1-6. Their scores this season are 41-20, 44-36, 27-24, 31-27, 31-28, 34-17 and 35-28. The Rams have a fantastic offense with Vito Priore under center and Aaron Parker out wide. This team's offense should be able to move in this one but I don't know if they can stop the Phoenix. This one seems like it should be a shootout on Saturday. |
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10-26-19 | Liberty v. Rutgers OVER 43 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Liberty has won five in a row since an 0-2 start to the year and a lot of that is because of this offense and a relatively easy schedule. Last week I had an easy winner with the over in their game against Maine as both teams went over by themselves. Buckshot Calvert and Antonio Gandy-Golden are a potent duo and the Flames have a solid run game to offset that as well. Liberty's defense hasn't been tested that much so far and they've allowed 24 to Syracuse and 35 to ULL. Rutgers offense is awful. They've scored 30 points over their last six games with all of those coming against power five schools. The Scarlet Knights have thrown for 49 yards the last two weeks. Way back in week one, they played the lesser UMass Minutemen and won 48-21. Rutgers defense hasn't been very good and will probably continue to struggle on Saturday. The thing is, I think they can find the end zone as well. Give me the over in this one. |
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10-20-19 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 43.5 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
The Jags want to get back on track in this one after losing two straight. Jacksonville is 2-4 with three overs this season. They put up 26 in Denver and 27 in Carolina and Gardner Minshew should be able to get whatever he wants. The defense played well against New Orleans, but I wonder if the third road game in four weeks tires this team out a little bit. You can throw on them and some teams have run on them as well. Cincy is 0-6, but their offense has shown some pulses. They put up 23 on Arizona at home and 17 on the stout 49ers. They can't run it so a lot more is being put on Andy Dalton's plate. Cincy has gone over in both of their home games this season. The Bengals offense could find some success and their defense should allow Jax to do whatever they want. |
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10-19-19 | Kansas v. Texas OVER 62 | 48-50 | Win | 100 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
Texas is coming off the loss to rival Oklahoma and should be rather ornery for this one. Kansas has lost 51-14 and 45-20 in their last two games in conference play. During the bye week the team picked up a new offensive coordinator that wants to go fast. Reading the press clippings, it seems like the Jayhawks like the new energy and should be able to do something. Even if they don't, at least their possessions will go faster giving Texas the ball more. This is a Longhorns defense that has allowed 30 points or more four times this season. Good thing for them is that their offense has scored 30 or more five times. Sam Ehlinger should be able to get whatever he wants through the air. Kansas has allowed 51 and 45 in their last two conference games letting TCU and Oklahoma do whatever they want. These two played a 42-27 game in Texas two years ago. Give me the over in this one. |
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10-19-19 | Maine v. Liberty OVER 43.5 | 44-59 | Win | 100 | 66 h 16 m | Show | |
Maine was ranked in the top 25 for a lot of the season, but it's been a rough year for the Black Bears. They are coming off a 24-17 home loss to Richmond in which their starting quarterback got hurt and the star wide receiver was already out. Before that, they lost 33-17 to Villanova. The team's wins were over Colgate 35-21 and Sacred Heart 42-14. It's their second FBS opponent of the year after falling 26-18 to Georgia Southern back on September 7th. Liberty has won four straight since a two game losing streak to start the year. The offense hasn't clicked lately so maybe they'll figure some things out during the bye week as Hugh Freeze gets his fingers into this side of the ball. The defense can be exploited but New Mexico and New Mexico State weren't good enough to do it. The Flames gave up 27 to Hampton in a 62-27 win over an FCS opponent back in September. I think this one should go over the lower total. |
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10-19-19 | Missouri v. Vanderbilt UNDER 56.5 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Missouri has been steamrolling opponents since losing to Wyoming on the road in week one. They have allowed just 58 points over their last five, but part of that is level of competition and the other thing is that all of those games were at home. This is a road game here that will feel like a home game as Vandy never draws. Missouri's offense is the one to worry about here because this feels like a name your score situation. They've got a road trip to Kentucky next so maybe they slack off towards the end, but probably not. Vandy has scored just 16 points the last two weeks against Ole Miss and UNLV. Somehow the Commodores gave up 34 points to the Runnin Rebels. The good thing is that outside of the running back Vaughn, this team has no offensive identity. They can't throw it at all with Riley Neal competing for the job. Vandy has gone under in 12 of their last 18 games including three of four this year. I think that trend continues here. |
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10-19-19 | James Madison v. William & Mary OVER 53 | 38-10 | Loss | -120 | 64 h 45 m | Show | |
William and Mary faces their second straight top five opponent as they host James Madison for homecoming after a bye week. The Tribe have scored at least 30 points in three of their four games against FCS opponents with them putting up 28 on a very good Villanova D two weeks ago. Kilton Anderson has worked well in this new go go offense that the Tribe are running and it looks like Hollis Mathis could be available as well. The WM defense has had it's issues against the better offenses giving up 35 to Nova, 39 to Albany and 52 to UVA. JMU is averaging 40.7 points per game and are averaging over 250 yards rushing. They want to go up-tempo too with their spread attack. The Dukes have put up 45, 45 and 38 in their last three conference games. The defense has been very good too although Stony Brook scored 38 while Nova put up 24. To me, the over in JMU games are almost insta-bets right now as the offense keeps rolling. |
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10-19-19 | Oregon v. Washington UNDER 49 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 48 m | Show | |
Oregon is allowing just over eight points per game this year and clamps down on both the run and the pass. Since giving up 27 to Auburn in week one, the Ducks have allowed 25 points over their next five contests. Granted, this is going to be one of their biggest tests of the season offensively, but Washington's offense has struggled at times too. They broke out against Arizona last time out putting up 51, but the previous two games saw them score 41 combined. Jacob Eason hasn't worked out as well as they had thought so far. Washington's defense has held five of their seven opponents to 20 points or less. Oregon's offense runs a lot of short passes which will be hindered by the loss of Jacob Breeland who is done for the season. The Ducks have gone under in 19 of their last 31 lined games including nine of their last 11 on the road. Washington has gone under in 20 of their last 34 games. Give me the under here. |
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10-17-19 | UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 50.5 | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
There are a lot of question marks in this game on both teams. UCLA doesn't know who their starting QB will be with Dorian Thompson-Robinson questionable. If he does not play, then Austin Burton is under center and he was not very good against Oregon State. UCLA's offensive line has allowed 15 sacks this season. The Bruins have had four games scoring under 20 points with two other games where they scored 98. Theo Howard departed the team and that's a big hit for them. UCLA's defense isn't great, but I don't think Stanford can take advantage of it. KJ Costello is out, Davis Mills is questionable and Jack West is the third string QB. Cameron Scarlett figures to be busy against UCLA who is allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. Stanford also has only six healthy offensive linemen. The Cardinal's defense has allowed 28 or more three times and 21 or less three other times. They had an impressive 23-13 win over Washington last time out. Stanford has gone under in 12 of their last 21 games as a favorite. I think this game is an under on Friday too. |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama v. Troy UNDER 55 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |