Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-19 | Astros v. Nationals +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
10-09-19 | Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
09-18-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
09-12-19 | Rays v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
08-18-19 | Cardinals v. Reds +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
08-16-19 | Indians +1.5 v. Yankees | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Aaron Civale continues to pitch well for the Indians who are in New York. Civale has allowed two runs and nine hits in his last 18 innings as a starter with 18 strikeouts to just four walks. Cleveland's bullpen isn't that bad and with injuries, the Yankees lineup isn't as strong as they used to be. Masahiro Tanaka is 8-6 with a 4.64 ERA for the home team. He had a rough stretch snapped last time out against the Jays. Tanaka held them to three hits in eight innings. Before that he allowed 10 hits in five innings to the Orioles. Cleveland's lineup isn't as much of a joke as it used to be and they flexed their muscles on Thursday. I think there's a bit of an edge with the road team and their runline. |
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07-23-19 | Marlins v. White Sox +1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
07-06-19 | Indians v. Reds +1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -138 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Anthony DeSclafani has pitched well at home as of late. He held the Cubs and Astros to one run and 11 hits in 11 innings with 11 strikeouts and just two walks. Disco pitched well against the Tribe in Cleveland last month holding them to one run and four hits in just over five innings. The Indians have won four straight since getting blasted in two straight games 13-0 by the Orioles. Cincy's bullpen should be rested and ready for this one and they've got some solid arms. Shane Bieber is coming off a winning effort in Baltimore where he held the listless Orioles to three hits in eight innings while striking out 11. The Reds have gone 6-2-1 to the under in their last nine games. Cleveland's bullpen isn't terrible either. I think the runline and Under are worth a look here. |
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07-02-19 | Cubs v. Pirates +1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
Joe Musgrove has pitched well in his last two starts allowing one run and 14 hits in 13 innings to the Astros and Padres. Musgrove is 6-7 with a 4.27 ERA this season. He lost to the Cubs back on April 11th but held them to two unearned runs and four hits in just over six innings. Over four starts against Chicago, he's given up just four earned runs and 19 hits in just over 26 innings. The Cubs lineup is very hot and cold. Kyle Hendricks is coming off the IL and will be held to 60-75 pitches. I love fading pitchers off injury because it's hard to get right back into the thick of things. The Cubs have lost four straight of Kyle's starts against the Pirates although none have come this year. The Pittsburgh lineup is in good form right now. I think they can take this one on Tuesday. |
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06-21-19 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | 1-4 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
James Paxton gets the call for the Yankees and he lost in Houston back in April giving up five runs and eight hits in four innings. Paxton has had two rough outings in his last three giving up 12 runs and 19 hits over his last 13 innings and change. The Astros are 16-5 against left-handed starters hitting .276 in those games. We're getting a really competent lineup plus a run and it seems like a gift even if the Yankees are extremely hot. Brad Peacock is 5-4 with a 3.77 ERA in 13 starts. He's lost two of his last three, but is in good form overall as of late. Houston's bullpen has just three losses and four blown saves on the road. I think this price is just a bit too good for me not to consider it. |
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06-19-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Nationals | 2-6 | Loss | -122 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
06-18-19 | Red Sox v. Twins +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
Michael Pineda has been a bit better as of late giving up seven runs and 13 hits in just over 16 innings. Pineda is walking less guys and actually has had a stretch of giving up no homers as well. That's been his problem a lot of the year so far. Boston's lineup has a lot of threats and is in good form right now, but that was against a bad Baltimore pitching staff. David Price is coming off a hideous home outing against the Rangers in which he gave up six runs and five hits in just over one inning. Minnesota is hitting .303 against left-handed starters scoring 7.1 runs per contest. They are hitting around .300 in their last eight games. Boston's bullpen just doesn't scare me that much. I think Minnesota wins this one at home on Tuesday. |
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06-16-19 | Rangers +1.5 v. Reds | 3-11 | Loss | -138 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a bit of an odd price considering how bad the Reds have been. Ariel Jurado has won three straight starts giving up eight runs and 18 hits over 18 innings. He has 18 strikeouts to just seven walks. Cincy is hitting around .200 in their last eight games and are 9-21 in day games. Texas' bullpen is a worry but the runline gives us a little bit of a cushion. Sonny Gray is 2-5 with a 3.51 ERA in 13 starts. He's not going deep in starts averaging just under five innings per start at home. Texas is averaging over six runs per game against right-handed starters and nearly seven runs per contest in the daytime. The Reds bullpen isn't infallible. I think the Rangers runline is worth a look. |
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06-09-19 | Rockies +1.5 v. Mets | 1-6 | Loss | -131 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Noah Syndergaard has had a terrible season so far. He's 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 13 starts. Thor has allowed 12 runs and 22 hits over his last 18 innings. He's been beaten up a bit by some bad offenses over that stretch in the Giants and Tigers. Thor is still racking up the strike outs but something else is off. Charlie Blackmon is back for Colorado and the lineup is doing well right now. They are averaging around .280 over their last eight games. Jeff Hoffman has a 7.29 ERA, but has shown some decent stuff. The righty has 22 strikeouts in 21 innings with just five walks. He lost in Chicago last time out. The Mets lineup is hitting .228 in day games and just doesn't have a ton of threats. Colorado's bullpen isn't as bad as you'd think especially on the road where they have an ERA under three. I think there's some value with the Rockies runline. |
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05-31-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Dodgers | 3-6 | Loss | -137 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
Jake Arrieta is 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA in 11 starts for the Phillies. Over his last two road starts he held the Cubs and Brewers to three runs and 13 hits over 14 innings of work. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his 11 starts this season. He beat the Dodgers twice last year including a road start where he gave up six hits and two walks in seven innings. He actually beat Kenta Maeda in that one. The righty is pitching really well right now although he's not going deep in ballgames. The Phillies lineup is actually in good form themselves right now. The bullpen edge slightly goes to the road team too so give me the road runline to keep things close. |
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05-24-19 | Rays v. Indians +1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Shane Bieber goes for Cleveland. He's 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA in nine starts this season. He's coming off a complete game shutout of Baltimore in which he struck out 15 giving up five hits. Bieber is hot right now but he's also faced the Orioles and White Sox as of late. Tampa is 16-7 on the road, but I really don't think their lineup is that good. The Indians bullpen has an ERA under three and just three blown saves this season. Blake Snell has just one win in four road starts. He's also pitching well as of late which is a scare. The Indians are 14-12 at home where they average over four runs per game. The lineup has some solid hitters, but has struggled at times. I know Cleveland is in a rough spot right now, but I think this is a lower scoring close game, so give me the runline. |
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05-10-19 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Justin Verlander is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA in eight starts for Houston. He's allowed just six runs and 11 hits over his last three starts striking out 22 while walking three over that span. That included two outings against the Twins and one in Anaheim against the Angels. Texas is 5-11 on the road and are hitting just .203 over their last seven games. I just don't believe too much in their offense. Verlander faced the Rangers twice in April giving up five runs and nine hits in 11 innings of work. Overall, he's 15-9 with a 3.07 ERA and a WHIP of 1.136 in 29 career outings. I like fading Lance Lynn and eventually that good record will have to change. He's 4-2 with a 5.75 ERA and a WHIP of 1.574. Over his last three starts, Lynn has allowed 14 runs and 22 hits in just over 16 innings of work. Even worse, the righty has 10 walks as well. Houston is smoking hot right now with wins in five of their last six. They've won each of them by two runs or more. The bullpen edge goes to the home team as well. I'll take the runline and hope for a blowout. |
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04-28-19 | Pirates +1.5 v. Dodgers | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
As i've mentioned, I don't really have a ton of systems when I make my plays. One thing I really believe in is fading pitchers coming off the injury report for their first start. It's one thing to do rehab outings, but it's another to ramp up against live pitching. Hill made one rehab start about 10 days ago where he struck out eight over four innings in advanced A ball. The Pirates lineup isn't still great, but they are 4-3 against left-handed starters. Hill is expected to go six innings and turn to a bullpen that's very inconsistent. Trevor Williams has a 1.67 ERA in his last 18 starts. He has had five quality starts this season. LA's lineup is very good although they've had a little bit of a struggle scoring runs. The numbers tell you to back the Dodgers, but I'll hope that Hill is rusty and Williams keeps up his good work. |
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04-20-19 | Phillies v. Rockies +1.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
The Phillies are banged up right now with Scott Kingery and Andrew McCutchen getting hurt on Friday night. Jean Segura and Odubel Herrera are already hurt for the lineup with David Robertson out as well. Antonio Senzatela beat the Padres in his first start holding them to one run and six hits in just over six innings. Philly's lineup has struggled a bit as of late and still has some talent but the injuries aren't helping things. Aaron Nola has been pretty bad this year giving up 17 runs and 21 hits in just over 19 innings. He's walked 11 as well to go along with just 19 strikeouts. Colorado's lineup is still trying to break out, but there's way too much talent for them potentially not to put up some runs. Both bullpens aren't great so that's a worry, but in that situation you lean to the home team. I think the Rockies are worth a look here. |
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04-15-19 | Reds +1.5 v. Dodgers | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
I don't have many systems or anything, but the one thing I like to fade is someone coming off the disabled list to make a start. There's something to someone having to ramp it up after some time off and Clayton Kershaw is going for the Dodgers. He allowed two runs in six innings in a rehab start in AA so he won't be completely cold. Who knows how long the southpaw will go so that means a shaky bullpen comes into play. Luis Castillo has been fantastic for the Reds this season. He's allowed two runs and five hits in starts against the Pirates, Brewers and Marlins. The righty has 25 strikeouts to just eight walks. He beat the Dodgers twice last year holding them to four runs and eight hits in just over 12 innings. The Reds offense is better then their numbers. The Dodgers offense has been hot so that's a worry but I'll take a chance with the Reds runline and hope Kershaw is rusty. |
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04-09-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Boston is the last team in the country to have their home opener and they get the Blue Jays to start. The Red Sox are a lot better then their 3-8 start to the year. One can point to the 6.5 runs per game that they are allowing as one of the reasons why. That number goes up to an astounding 8.8 in their day games. Still, this is a talented lineup and I think we see an explosion in this one of offense. The Cubs destroyed the Pirates on Monday after their long road trip. Matt Shoemaker has not allowed a run yet in two outings, but that was against Baltimore and Detroit at home and neither is that good offensively. He'll be opposed by Chris Sale who was torched by Seattle in his first start but followed it up with a good one in Oakland in which he held the A's to one run and three hits in six innings in a game he lost 1-0. Sale is 7-2 with a 2.20 ERA and a WHIP of 0.841 in 12 career starts against the Jays. Toronto's lineup is atrocious averaging 2.6 runs per contest while hitting .183. Outside of Justin Smoak there aren't a ton of threats. Toronto's bullpen is 0-3 with a 3.20 ERA. Boston's pen is 3-1 with a 3.61 ERA and no blown saves. I think Boston's going to blow out the Jays in this one. |
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08-29-18 | Brewers v. Reds +1.5 | 13-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
08-29-18 | A's +1.5 v. Astros | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
08-15-18 | Rockies +1.5 v. Astros | 1-12 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
08-03-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
08-01-18 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
07-28-18 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
07-27-18 | Rays v. Orioles +1.5 | 5-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
07-26-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -135 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
07-25-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Indians | 0-4 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
07-20-18 | Astros v. Angels +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
07-20-18 | Braves +1.5 v. Nationals | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
07-13-18 | Phillies v. Marlins +1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
The Phillies will be in their third city in three nights as they begin a series in Miami against the Marlins. Wei-Yin Chen has a 1.89 ERA at home this season. He's pitched well there with the spacious outfield. The Phillies are hitting just .228 against left-handed starters and are 22-24 on the road. Miami's bullpen has some ugly numbers, but there is still some talent there. Jake Arrieta is 3-4 with a 4.64 ERA in eight road starts. He lost to the Fish in Miami at the end of April giving up six runs and eight hits in just over three innings. Miami's hitting .314 over their last seven games. The Phillies bullpen has their weakness in certain spots and can be beaten. I think the home team's runline is worth a look here. |
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07-03-18 | Astros v. Rangers +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Dallas Keuchel is 4-8 with a 4.22 ERA in 17 starts with eight of them going over the total. He's coming off a start where he gave up six runs in just over five innings to the Blue Jays. Keuchel has allowed nine runs and 20 hits in just over 10 innings in Texas this season. The Rangers are hitting .261 against left-handed starters and have gone over in 15 of 27 games. The lineup has performed well as of late despite the fact that it's not a great group. Austin Bibens-Dirkx is 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA in four starts. He's facing Houston for the first time in his career as a starter. The Astros lineup is not at it's best right now as it deals with injuries. The Rangers aren't a great team but I think this is a good price to take a shot with them at home. |
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06-30-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees +1.5 | 11-0 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
The Yankees getting a decent price at home means I'll take the runline even with Chris Sale on the mound. New York is 19-5 against left-handed starters hitting .265 in those games. The team is averaging nearly six runs per contest at home and have had some success against the lefty. Sale has lost two of his last three starts against the Yanks and this year's lineup is better then it was last year. I'm not thrilled with backing Sonny Gray right now, but he's pitched well enough as of late. The righty has held the Rays and Nats to 10 runs and 19 hits over his last three outings. Boston is hitting .245 on the road which is pretty much the only bad number I can find with them. I'm going to hold my nose with Gray and hope the Yankees can get to Sale with this one. |
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06-23-18 | Dodgers v. Mets +1.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a pretty good price to get the Mets and Jacob deGrom. He's arguably been the best pitcher in baseball as of late although it doesn't show up in his record. The righty is only 5-2 with a 1.51 ERA despite allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last 10 starts. I know how awesome Clayton Kershaw is and how bad the Mets are against lefties but they are limiting his innings today with Caleb Ferguson backing him up out of the pen. Ferguson is not very good and depending upon how many innings the starters go, we may have many opportunities for runs later on in the contest. deGrom will go deep too which means hopefully he can go 8 and hand it off to the closer. I'll take the better pitcher RIGHT NOW at home with 1.5 runs. |
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06-19-18 | Red Sox v. Twins +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Jose Berrios is 5-2 with a 3.60 ERA in seven home starts. He's picked up 24 strikeouts and two walks over his last 21 innings of work and is in good form. Boston is hitting .236 in their last seven games and has an offense that is capable of struggling a little bit. Minnesota's bullpen is a disaster so I've got to hope that Berrios can go deep. Chris Sale is 6-4 with a 2.75 ERA for Boston. Sale has a 4.47 ERA in 18 career starts against Minnesota. The Twins are 16-16 at home and are hitting .250 there. The offense has some talent that could get to Sale. Boston's bullpen has six losses and five blown saves. I'm playing this because of the runline price and the fact that Berrios can throw a gem himself. |
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06-19-18 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | 2-7 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Domingo German is hard to figure out. He's 1-3 with a 5.77 ERA in seven starts for the Yankees. The righty has strikeout stuff, but struggles from time to time. He's allowed 10 runs and 17 hits over his last three starts and is now facing a Seattle team that is 21-12 on the road averaging nearly five runs per game. They are hitting .291 over their last seven games and have the edge in the bullpen. Marco Gonzales is 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 14 starts for Seattle. He has allowed six runs and 17 hits over his last 19 innings. The Yankees are coming off a pseudo doubleheader and are hitting around .220 over their last nine games or so. I think there's some value with the road team's runline in this one. |
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06-12-18 | Nationals +1.5 v. Yankees | 0-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Yankees are hitting .197 over their last seven games entering a brief two game series with the Nats. Tanner Roark has a 3.35 ERA in 12 starts and 2.88 ERA over six road outings. He's got 65 strikeouts to just 25 walks in 78 innings. CC Sabathia is the opposition and he's allowed 14 runs and 17 hits over his last three starts. The southpaw is facing a Washington team that is 21-11 on the road and are hitting .277 in five AL games. I think the Nats lineup is too good not to keep this thing close so I'll take the Washington runline. |
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06-03-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | 10-7 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
We are still getting decent prices for the Rockies whose lineup is due to breakout eventually especially at home. They are hitting around .320 in their last eight contests and get to face Alex Wood fresh off him allowing five runs and six hits to the Padres at home. Wood has been dealing with reduced velocity and some cramps as well as of late. He has a 5.44 career ERA against the Rockies. Chad Bettis held the Dodgers to two runs and three hits in five innings a couple of weeks ago in LA. The Dodgers lineup is not as deep as it used to be and I don't know if Vegas is pricing them like that. LA has the slight bullpen edge in this matchup, but I'll take the home team who can outslug anyone especially since the runline price is juicy. |
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06-02-18 | Blue Jays v. Tigers +1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
The Tigers are roping left-handed starters hitting .294 in those games. The lineup got Miguel Cabrera back so they will be improved. JA Happ is the opponent and he's got a 3.84 ERA in 11 starts this season. Happ has lost his last start in Detroit although it came in 2016. He'll be opposed by Matt Boyd who is 3-1 with a 1.84 ERA in five starts at home. Boyd has been good at keeping runners off base allowing just 41 hits and 20 walks in 57 innings of work. Toronto just put Josh Donaldson on the DL and is hitting around .210 in their last eight games. This is not a fierce lineup so I think Boyd can have some success. There's some value with the home team's runline. |
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05-25-18 | Twins +1.5 v. Mariners | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Fernando Romero has not lost in four starts for the Twins. Romero has allowed five runs and 14 hits in just over 21 innings. He's got 22 strikeouts to just 11 walks. Seattle is just 12-10 at home and are hitting around .200 in their last eight games. James Paxton has been very good as of late, but he's also facing weak opponents like Toronto and Detroit. Paxton faced the Twins back on April 5th giving up two runs and four hits in five innings. Minnesota is hitting .241 against left-handed starters and have enough threats to keep this one close. I think it's worth a look to take the runline in this one. |
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05-25-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Yankees | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Fading the Yankees at times could give us some good prices especially with a team as good as the Angels. Andrew Heaney is 2-3 with a 3.35 ERA in seven starts. He's allowed just three earned runs and 12 hits over his last 20 innings. Heaney faced the Yankees at home about a month ago giving up two runs and five hits in five innings striking out nine in the process. He'll be opposed by Luis Severino who gave up three runs and five hits in seven innings in that game. The Angels are 16-5 on the road averaging nearly six runs per game. They have a good bullpen and a pretty good lineup so i'll take the chance with the runline in this one and hope they hit the Yankees ace. |
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05-22-18 | Tigers +1.5 v. Twins | 0-6 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Lance Lynn has been horrific for the Twins. He's 1-4 with a 7.47 ERA in eight starts with seven of them going over the total. Lynn has a 6.23 ERA in three home outings and is struggling with walks right now. The Tigers are scoring over four runs per game against right-handed starters and are not collapsing as much without Miguel Cabrera. Matt Boyd is 0-2 with a 4.18 ERA in four road starts. The southpaw is facing a Twins offense that is coming up small right now, but has the talent to bounce back. Both teams have pretty bad bullpens who may have to cover a lot of innings. I think this one could go over the total with plenty of runs on both sides. |
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05-09-18 | Indians v. Brewers +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
The Indians have lost four straight and five of their last six as the offense has gone a bit dry once again. Carlos Carrasco has allowed 11 runs and 14 hits over his last eight innings and change to mediocre offenses Toronto and Seattle. Milwaukee has struggled a bit with their offense, but the talent is there. Cleveland's bullpen has nine losses and an ERA over five. Junior Guerra is 2-2 with a 2.33 ERA in five starts for the Brew Crew. He's pitched well for the most part this season although he did lose last time out against Pittsburgh. Milwaukee's bullpen is deep and getting Corey Knebel back as he comes off the DL. I think the price we're getting with a live home team is too good not to back them. |
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05-01-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
We all know how good Clayton Kershaw is. He's 1-4 with a 2.84 ERA in six starts for Los Angeles and has a career losing record in Chase Field. Kershaw lost last time there back on April 3rd giving up two runs and four hits in six innings of work. Arizona is 10-2 against left-handed starters this season and are hitting .265 in their last seven contests. The Dodgers bullpen has five blown saves in six chances on the road. Matt Koch has allowed three runs and eight hits in two starts for the Diamondbacks so far this season. LA is scuffling having lost six of their last seven. They are not hitting well and there's question about the hustle of some players. Arizona has not blown a save this season. I think the value is too good not to take this here. |
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05-01-18 | Rays v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
There's some value here with the home team in this one. Chris Archer has allowed 25 runs and 41 hits in just over 32 innings as the ace has struggled to get things going. He is coming off an effort where he allowed 11 hits in just over five innings. Archer is 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA in eight career starts against the Tigers. Detroit is hitting .270 at home and is averaging over five runs per game there. Tampa Bay's bullpen has a 5.06 ERA and has six blown saves in 12 chances. Matthew Boyd is looking for his first win of the season. The southpaw has pitched well outside of his last outing in Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay's lineup is in good form right now, but I still don't trust it. I think there's some runline value here as well. |
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04-29-18 | Cardinals v. Pirates +1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Heralded prospect Nick Kingham gets the call on Sunday. He's 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four starts in AAA. He had 27 strikeouts to just seven walks over 22.2 innings of work. The Cardinals offense is putting up good numbers, but I think they could struggle against the rookie. Luke Weaver has struggled over his last two starts. He allowed 10 runs and 11 hits to the Mets and Cubs. Pittsburgh's offense is in good form right now and is hitting around .280 at home. Both bullpens have their issues, but I think this is a close one run game that the Pirates may win or lose. I'll take the runline. |
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04-28-18 | Rangers +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a very odd price considering how Toronto has lost three straight and five of their last six games. The Jays offense has scored just 17 runs over that span and are hitting .189 over their last seven contests. I'll take a chance with Bartolo Colon who has pitched well for the most part this season. He doesn't walk people and he's got no-hit stuff potentially. Last year Colon won twice in Toronto so he won't be phased by pitching there. Jaime Garcia has allowed 10 runs and 19 hits over his last three starts. I'm not that impressed with the southpaw at all. Texas is a mediocre offense themselves, but they've won two straight and three of their last five. Neither bullpen is that good either. I think that this is a good price for a runline just in case Texas' pen blows it and we lose by 1. |
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04-22-18 | Cubs v. Rockies +1.5 | 9-7 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
German Marquez faces the Cubs for the third time in his career. Marquez threw eight shutout innings at home against them last year. He's coming off his best effort of the season in Pittsburgh last time out. Marquez has allowed just 10 runs and 14 hits over his four starts. The Cubs offense is hitting around .239 in day games and are just 6-6 against right-handed starters. The Rockies bullpen has nine saves in 12 chances. Jose Quintana has a 8.16 ERA in three starts. The southpaw has had a walks problem with 10 of them in just over 14 innings. He's allowed 13 runs and 16 hits over that span as well. Colorado is putting up ugly offensive numbers, but that lineup is too good to struggle for this long. I think there's some definitely some value with the runline in this one. |
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04-14-18 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
This is quite a hefty price to pay for an inconsistent Dodgers team that isn't hitting. Taijuan Walker held LA to three runs in five innings back on April 2nd. He's pitched pretty well this season although I'd like to see some more strikeouts. The Dodgers are hitting around .232 as a team this season and don't really scare me right now. Arizona's bullpen has an ERA under one on the road. Rich Hill is pitching off a week rest and he faced the Giants twice. Hill is 1-6 with a 4.98 ERA in 11 career starts against Arizona. He struggled a lot with them and I don't see much of a change this year as I like the DBacks lineup. The Dodgers bullpen has had their issues this season. To me, the runline in this one is a juicy price. |
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04-10-18 | Astros v. Twins +1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Dallas Keuchel is two starts into his 2018 campaign and is still looking for his first win of the season. The southpaw has allowed five runs and 12 hits in 11 innings against the Orioles and Rangers. He's not pitched in Minnesota since 2014, but lost to them the last time he faced them in 2016. The Twins offense has some potential and I think they can get to Keuchel. Jake Odorizzi has a 0.47 ERA in three career starts against the Astros, but those came in 2014 and 2015. This lineup is a lot better although they are hitting around .225 as a group against right-handed pitchers. I think this one could be a tighter game so I'll take the home team's runline. |
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03-31-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
CC Sabathia takes the mound for the Yankees on Saturday as they host the Jays. Sabathia is 17-11 with a 3.63 ERA in 31 career stats against Toronto. He's lost two of his last three starts against them. Russell Martin (8-28), Kendrys Morales (9-25), Steve Pearce (8-27) and Justin Smoak (7-26) have good numbers against the veteran. Toronto's lineup isn't that great, but I don't think Sabathia can continue to do it with smoke and mirrors. Marco Estrada had a down year last year, but beat the Yankees twice in a row at home in games where he held them to one run and eight hits in 14 innings. We havent really seen the Toronto good bullpen arms yet so that's good in a case where they may have a lead. Estrada thinks he fixed what ailed him last year. The Yankees are the better team, but I think they lose on Saturday. |
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03-30-18 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
The Giants pulled out a 1-0 win in game one as they got a good outing from Ty Blach and were able to scratch a run across. Now they face Alex Wood who is 2-2 with a 4.82 ERA in five career starts against the Giants. In his last two outings against them at home, San Fran scored nine runs and 15 hits over 12 innings of work. Buster Posey (7-15), Brandon Crawford (4-9) and Hunter Pence (4-15) have good numbers against the lefty. The Giants lineup isn't terrible. Johnny Cueto has a 3.44 ERA in 17 career starts against LA. He beat them in his last start there back in May of 2017. The Dodgers lineup struggled against a lesser pitcher and aren't quite as strong without Justin Turner. Yasiel Puig (4-18), Joc Pederson (1-16) and Chris Taylor (1-6) all struggle with the veteran. I think there's some value with the road runline in a game that could be close. |
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09-22-17 | Royals v. White Sox +1.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Jason Hammel has been rocked his last two outings giving up 12 runs and 21 hits to the Indians and these White Sox. He's 4-6 with a 5.14 ERA on the road this season. Hammel has a 4.50 ERA in six career starts against Chicago. The White Sox are hitting .267 in their last seven games and will face a Royals bullpen with 24 losses and 20 blown saves. Reynaldo Lopez has pitched well against KC in both of his starts. Lopez allowed five runs and 12 hits in 12 innings. KC has lost three of their last five games and have been inconsistent offensively. Chicago's bullpen is 16-6 with only six blown saves at home. I like the value of the runline. |
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09-07-17 | Cubs v. Pirates +1.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Jameson Taillon is on the mound looking to continue his good pitching as of late. He's held four of his last six opponents to two runs or less. Taillon has seen Chicago twice this season holding them to five runs and 15 hits in 12 innings of work. This is a Cubs team that has lost three of their last four scoring just five runs over that span. Jon Lester isn't in great form right now. He's allowed three runs or more in five straight starts and has had some issues with the Pirates. Last time he saw them he gave up 10 runs in just under an inning of work. Pittsburgh is a hot and cold team and has won four of their last five. I think there's some value with them today. |
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09-03-17 | Rays v. White Sox +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Lucas Giolito makes his third start for Chicago this afternoon. He's allowed four runs and nine hits in his 13 innings of work. Tampa Bay is hitting .230 in their last seven games and are just 24-24 in day games. The White Sox bullpen is 16-6 with a 3.94 ERA at home this season. Matt Andriese makes his first start since 6/10 when he only went an inning. Who knows how deep he'll be able to go and the Tampa bullpen isn't very good. They have 29 losses and 21 blown saves on the season. The White Sox are hitting .263 in their last seven games. This is quite the expensive price for a poor offense and a poor pitching group. Let's take the home team. |
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09-01-17 | Rays v. White Sox +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Reynaldo Lopez is making his third start of the season for the White Sox. He's allowed eight runs and nine hits in just over 10 innings of work and is coming off the disabled list. Tampa Bay is 33-35 on the road where they are hitting .247 as a group. The White Sox bullpen has just six losses and six blown saves at home. Blake Snell has bounced back nicely from his early struggles. The southpaw is 2-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 18 starts this season. He's facing a Chicago lineup that is hitting .269 against left-handed starters this season. Tampa Bay's bullpen has 29 losses and 21 blown saves. To me, there's a lot of value with the home team's runline in this one. |
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08-23-17 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Indians | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
The Red Sox have been a road underdog this big just five times the last three seasons and I don't think it's worth it here. Yes, Corey Kluber is hot having won three straight starts and is 8-1 with a 2.09 ERA at home. The ace is only 3-3 with a 4.09 ERA in nine career starts against Boston. The Red Sox lineup is hot right now and they have the hitters to beat up Kluber. Drew Pomeranz isn't too shabby of a pitcher either considering he's allowed four runs over his last three starts. Cleveland is only 23-22 against left-handed starters this season. The Indians bullpen isn't as much of a sure thing with Andrew Miller back on the DL. To me, I get a playoff team and a good price on the road. That's too hard to pass up. |
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08-11-17 | Royals v. White Sox +1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Reynaldo Lopez is back in the majors after being dealt from the Nats to the White Sox. The heralded prospect went 6-7 with a 3.79 ERA in Triple-A. He struck out 131 and walked 49 in 121 innings. The Royals are reeling a bit right now as they are on a pretty solid losing skid. The lineup isn't as strong and the pitching is not holding up. Danny Duffy has seen the White Sox twice already this season allowing 12 runs and 19 hits in just over nine innings. Chicago is hitting .269 against left-handed starters whom they are averaging 4.5 runs per game against. The White Sox swept the Royals at home earlier this season. I think there's some value here with the home team's runline. |
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08-11-17 | Astros v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
The Astros have come back down to earth a little bit of as of late. Charlie Morton gets the call on Friday. He's got a 4.08 ERA in five road starts this season. Texas is hitting .263 at home where they are scoring 5.5 runs per game. Houston's bullpen has 16 losses and 14 blown saves. Cole Hamels has not lost in six home starts this season. He's coming off a complete game win in Minnesota where he gave up an unearned run. Last year in his last three outings against the Astros, Hamels gave up five runs and 14 hits over 21 innings and change. Houston's lineup has been strong still, but the team doesn't have a winning record against left-handed starters. I know Texas' bullpen is bad, but at this price with a good offense and the better starter, I'll take a chance. |
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08-04-17 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
It's a big price but I'm willing to back the better team in this one. Anthony Banda wasn't terrible against the Nationals at home giving up four runs and seven hits in just over five innings. He had five strikeouts to no walks and is facing a Giants team that isn't very good. San Francisco is 14-21 vs. left-handed starters and 17-30 against the rest of the division. Arizona's bullpen has a 3.58 ERA on the season. Madison Bumgarner is 1-4 with a 2.92 ERA in eight starts. He gave up three runs and six hits in seven innings to the Diamondbacks back on Opening Day. Arizona is hitting .251 against left-handed starters and have the better lineup and the better bullpen. To me, it's a good price to take the runline for the better team on the road. |
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07-21-17 | Rangers v. Rays +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
Alex Cobb has allowed eight runs and 14 hits over his last three starts entering Friday night at home. The righty's been great his last two outings beating the Angels and Red Sox. Cobb is getting a Rangers team that has lost five straight games with the offense going bone dry. Texas has scored just 20 runs over their last eight games as they decide whether to be buyers or sellers. The Rays bullpen does scare me, but Cobb is going deeper in games. Yu Darvish has allowed 12 runs and 22 hits over his last three starts. The righty has not lost to the Rays, but he's getting a Tampa team with an improved offense. They are 27-19 at home where they hit .265 and are averaging five runs per game. The Rays went 4-2 on their trip through Anaheim and Oakland. The Texas bullpen is horrible with 19 losses and 16 blown saves as a group. Tampa Bay took two of three in Arlington earlier this season. I think they pick up the win on Friday. |