(#510) San Antonio Spurs | ATS | . 

After dropping both games at home, San Antonio was able to respond w/ a massive win in Game 3. Now, I know that the Spurs blew a 29 point lead in Game 4, making it the biggest blown lead in NBA Finals history. But, that shouldn't change the game plan here. There was a few plays late that the Spurs could've executed on differently & we wouldn't be looking at an elimination game here. Props to the Knicks for staying in the game and knocking down timely shots in the 4th qtr. However, I believe that New York will still be content to go back home after this one with a chance to close out the series at MSG in front of those fans. San Antonio hasn't lost three consecutive home games all season long & I'm not expecting that to happen today either. Give me SAS in a response after the collapse. 

Burns' Prediction: 112-103 Spurs.

(#505) San Antonio Spurs | ATS | . 

New York took a 2-0 series lead after holding on in Game 2. Now, this is a huge mountain to climb for San Antonio. But, I expect the Spurs to bounce back and make this a season. Since 1997, any team that is revenging a loss by 3pts or less against an opponent, as well as coming off of 2+ consecutive upset losses as a home favorite, are 45-22 (67.2%) SU. That system applies to the Spurs here this evening. 

Looking at the Knicks, it's definitely been a ridiculous run, winning 14 straight games now. That being said, all runs come to an end eventually and this is definitely going to be their most challenging game to test that run yet. Yes, NYK is back at home at MSG. However, I just simply don't believe that the Knicks will be able to keep covering the spread against one of the most complete teams in the NBA. In my eyes, if the Spurs play anything like they did during the OKC series tonight, they won't have a problem making this a series once again. 

San Antonio also possesses an outstanding 35-15 record on the road this season including the postseason. Some of those include a Game 7 win on the road against the defending champs as well as a Game 6 on the road to beat the Timberwolves 4-2. The fans most definitely are going to be rocking in the Big Apple, don't expect Wemby to go down without a fight. 

Burns' Prediction: 115-107 Spurs.

(#504) San Antonio Spurs | ATS | . 

Considering how badly the Spurs shot in Game 1, it's a bit surprising to me that they had the lead throughout the majority of the game and had a chance near the end to claw back and win that game. Yes, I did have the "over" and lost with it in that game. But, the shots just weren't falling and I could definitely see this one being high scoring. But, more importantly than that, I do also expect the Spurs to rebound, and win this game comfortably (double digits.) 

It's been a dominating showing from the Knicks so far in the postseason. But, it's always more difficult with the most on the line. Game 1 was very tightly contested and New York hasn't had many of those games in these playoffs. This will be an even bigger test. Wembanyama will not have another game like he did in Gm1. Give me the Spurs to bounce back. 

Burns' Prediction: 112-101 Spurs.

(#501) New York Knicks @ (#502) San Antonio Spurs | OVER | . 

I get that the "under" has been extremely profitable in the NBA Finals for so many years now. As a matter of fact, the "under" is 36-10 since 2022 in the NBA Finals. That being said, I'm not a big fan of looking at history when we've got two up and coming programs fighting for future success in this league. 

New York's been chomping at the bit for a couple of seasons now, waiting patiently for this opportunity. Over this playoff run, the Knicks are averaging 119.9 PPG on some historic shooting performances. No, I'm not expecting the Knicks to go absolutely bonkers here throughout this series. But, I am expecting them to put up a real fight and perhaps shock the world. 

Looking at the Spurs, their offense looked pretty unstoppable over the last two games of the OKC/SAS series. Quite frankly, the defending champions couldn't even figure out how to defend this team. The relentless hustle & top notch play from the youngsters have brought this Spurs team to new heights. 

This game being Gm1 in the NBA Finals could cause for some early jitters. But, I don't expect that to last long, playing at home in front of their own crowd. NYK will show up ready, and this one could quite be the best game of the whole series. I expect lots of points, just like in the NBA Cup Final earlier this year. Give me the "over." 

Burns' Prediction: 119-108 Spurs.

(#560) Oklahoma City Thunder | ATS | . 

After opening as a -5.5 point favorite, the line has come down to this -4.0 number. I believe that OKC is going to be angry after losing the last one, which should definitely fuel it to win this game. The Thunder have been elite on their home court throughout the season & that has continued throughout the postseason (only loss being in 2OT to SAS.) Game 5 is back in Oklahoma City. I like the Thunder to come out swinging, and early. 

San Antonio is capable of beating anyone in the NBA including this OKC Thunder side. But, the Spurs do lack the ability to keep the foot on the gas pedal at times. Numerous times in these playoffs, yet alone this series, San Antonio has opened up games with big runs. But, teams are able to hang around. That's not what you want, especially in a game like this one the road. Give me OKC at home at a much better price than we saw yesterday. 

Burns' Prediction: 117-107 Thunder.

(#554) Cleveland Cavaliers | ATS | . 

Game 1 was a bit odd as the Cleveland Cavaliers took complete control for the majority of the game. The Cavs, who were up 22 w/ less than eight minutes remaining, pretty much had the game sealed. Until it wasn't and the Knicks clawed all the way back and won that game. That definitely was not good for the Cavs confidence heading into Game 2 & New York took full advantage of it. 

Now, facing a 0-2 series deficit, this essentially turns into a "must-win" game for the Cavaliers. No team in NBA history has ever came back from down 0-3 in a series. Cleveland knows this. The good things is that road teams that have covered ATS in 8+ of their past 10 games, who have won 60-75% of their games on the season have gone just 27-57 (32.1%) ATS since 2022. That system applies to the Knicks in this one. 

Looking at this game a bit more, Cleveland has been significantly better here at home compared to on the road (33-15 instead of 27-23.) Same goes for the Knicks, who are just 26-20 in road games compared to 36-11 at home. No, I don't think that either team is going to be able to win a seven game series in the finals against either Western Conference team. But, I do expect this ECF to get quite interesting after this matchup. Give me Cleveland in Game 3. 

Burns' Prediction: 114-105 Cavs.

(#548) Oklahoma City Thunder | ATS | . 

San Antonio might have stolen Game 1 in overtime. But, I expect OKC to respond in a massive way here in Game 2. The series stays here at the Paycom Center where the Thunder own a 34-7 record this season. I know that covering six and a half points won't be easy. But, I expect Oklahoma City to get the job done, and win this game comfortably on Wednesday. 

The Spurs have gotten the best of the Thunder so far this season. But, Mark Daigneault doesn't have a COTY & a championship over the past couple of seasons for no reason with this team. He's great at adapting and making things happen when they matter most. Whether Fox plays or not, I like OKC by double digits here. 

Burns' Prediction: 111-96 Thunder.

(#525) San Antonio Spurs @ (#526) Minnesota Timberwolves | UNDER | . 

Admittedly, I did lose with Minnesota in Game 5 in what was simply a bad pick. Now, I'm back with another selection on this series here in Game 6. Considering four straight games in this series have gone "over" the number, I believe that this is the perfect time for this series to shift back to a lower scoring type of game. If the Timberwolves showed up in Gm5, I believe that it would've been a lower scoring game too. But, Minnesota's entire team practically didn't come to play, leading to a bunch of points for the Spurs. San Antonio is coming off a much lower scoring series with the Trail Blazers. Yes, there were a couple of high scoring games. But, defense was key for the most part. As the series gets older, I believe that every single one will continue to get more intense and high pressure, leading to less points overall. With the four "over's" in succession, this total has gone up a point from last game. Give me the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 109-102 Timberwolves.

(#515) Minnesota Timberwolves | ATS | . 

I had Minnesota in Game 4 to tie up the series as my ROUND 2 GAME OF THE YEAR & boy oh boy it sure paid off. Anthony Edwards & the Timberwolves clutched up in the 4th quarter and delivered a monstrous win. Now, the series is tied up at 2-2 and I still think that Minnesota is getting tremendously underlooked here. This is a team that can compete with anyone. Double digit dogs? Please. 

San Antonio got a bit unlucky in the last game with Wemby's ejection. However, I still think that Minnesota would've made it a game with him still playing. He's a massive piece. But, it also would've meant that Harper/Castle probably wouldn't have combined for 44 points. I do believe that this is a great spot to back Minnesota to keep this game close and possibly upset again. Grab the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 109-106 Spurs.

(#508) Minnesota Timberwolves | ATS | . 

San Antonio managed to win both Game 2 & Game 3 after dropping Game 1 at home. I did like SAS to take a series lead, but not necessarily in that manner. That being said, Anthony Edwards is looking more and more healthy again & I expect Minnesota to continue to fight as the postseason continues. 

On the season, San Antonio was 1-3 against the Timberwolves, dropping both of the games played in Minnesota. I know that those stats go out the window when the postseason comes along. But, Minnesota has been absolutely dominant at home against the Spurs in recent history. As a matter of fact, it's won seven of the past eight games here at the Target Center. 

Yes, this series was always going to be difficult for Minnesota, being short handed without Donte DiVencenzo. Nobody knew that Edwards was going to return in Game 1 either. But, considering how he looked in Game 3, and how this series is shaping up, I believe that this is going to be an instant classic. Give me the Timberwolves to even up the series at two games a piece. 

Burns' Prediction: 117-112 TWolves.

(#569) Los Angeles Lakers @ (#570) Oklahoma City Thunder | OVER | . 

This is a big game. If Los Angeles can somehow mange to right the ship & somehow win this game, it buys Luka Doncic a couple of more days to get ready to come back for an important game. If the Lakers fail to do so, they risk going down three games to none back at home over the weekend. Scoring 90 points isn't going to cut it & LeBron knows it. He's going to come out ready to "die on the floor" on Thursday doing whatever he can to help get the Lakers back in this series. 

Oklahoma City, on the other hand, will be looking to extend this lead & stay perfect in the postseason. The Thunder still managed to cover ATS despite Shai having scored less than 20 for the first time since Game 3 of the WCF last year. I expect a better performance from him. Did you know that #1 seed in the playoffs that are at home in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 34-11 (75.6%) towards the "over" since 2017! Give me the "over" in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 123-105 OKC.

(#561) Philadelphia 76ers | ATS | . 

In Game 1, the 76ers got smacked and there's no doubt about that. I think that they were still tired from the Game 7 & series against Boston finishing just a couple of days prior. Now, both teams are on the same rest after playing each other on Monday and I'm expecting the real Philadelphia to show what it's made of. I did expect the Celtics to beat the Sixers. But, I did mention that I thought it would be harder than people expected and the Sixers showed everyone what they were capable of. 

New York's great, and I've won with it in this postseason already. However, it has shown that it's willing to play in tight & close games. The Knicks lost twice last series, by one point in both of those games. I think that Philadelphia could force this game to come down to the wire and end up victorious in the later stages. This one's going to be a much more competitive matchup. Give me the Sixers. 

Burns' Prediction: 108-106 Sixers.

(#554) San Antonio Spurs | ATS | . 

Minnesota might've hung on to beat Denver in a series where the Nuggets clearly weren't in the right head space. But, I don't think that it's going to have the same success here in this series against the Spurs, especially if Edwards cannot return. Edwards is expected to return in Game 3, which should give the Timberwolves a massive boost. But, on the road in San Antonio, this one could get ugly in Game 1. 

The Spurs own 34-9 SU & 25-18 ATS records at home this season. While at times, they do have some trouble winning by a large margin, they should be able to do so on Monday, given all of the injuries for the TWolves. With Gobert on the other side, don't expect Wemby to go easy on his fellow frenchman. That matchup should add even more fuel to the fire. Give me SAS big in Game 1. 

Burns' Prediction: 117-95 Spurs. 

***now Edwards is expected to play game 1. Still like Spurs by double digits in Game 1. Grab best line available.

(#525) Detroit Pistons | ATS | . 

Still playing to stay alive, the #1 seeded Pistons looked much, much better in Game 4 despite not covering the spread. I know that Cade Cunningham had to score 45 in that game to keep Detroit alive. But, the momentum of having won the last game in a playoff series is definitely real, especially as the higher seed. 

Orlando also got a 45 point showing from Paolo Banchero in Game 4. That being said, it wasn't good enough. Franz Wagner remains out for Game 6 and that's a crucial injury for this series. I believe that Banchero won't have as strong as a game here on Friday, which should ultimately lead to a Detroit W. Lay the points (consider ML as well ... if want to be safe.) 

Burns' Prediction: 114-105 Pistons.

(#509) Boston Celtics | ATS | . 

I like Boston to finally finish this series against the Sixers on Thursday evening. Like I mentioned in my Game 1 writeup, (although it didn't completely go to plan) I did expect Philadelphia to make this series somewhat competitive, which it has. That being said, the 76ers have hung around long enough & I also expect Joe Mazzulla and the C's to finally put them away here this evening. 

Even on the road, Boston remains the favorite. This is actually the smallest favorite that it's been so far in the series. Don't get me wrong, having Embiid back is very nice for Philadelphia. But, he's not going to be enough to stop Boston, who's searching for another title this season. Give me the Celtics on Thursday. 

Burns' Prediction: 115-103 Celtics.

(#502) Detroit Pistons | ATS | . 

Orlando has taken a commanding 3-1 series lead against the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and I'm quite shocked at this result. That being said, I do not think that the Pistons are going to lose a third consecutive game and lose the series on Wednesday at home against the #8 seed. No, it hasn't been a good series for the supporting cast of Cade Cunningham (he's done everything he can.) But, I'm expecting that to all chance here this evening when the series shifts back to the Motor City. Orlando is just 20-23 on the road this season including playoffs & Detroit is 32-10 at home. The Magic are still 10 games below .500 (ATS) against foes from the Eastern Conference this season as well despite being 3-1 ATS in the series. Expect the Pistons to show some heart, dominate Game 5, & bring this series back to Florida for a crucial Game 6. 

Burns' Prediction: 117-99 Pistons.

(#574) San Antonio Spurs | ATS | . 

As much as I love Portland as a team at full strength, the Blazers could really use a superstar like Damian Lillard playing the moment. They just aren't as strong as these best of the best teams without a superstar like that currently in my eyes. Yes, Deni Advija has been great throughout the season. But, he's not been his strongest in these playoffs and I don't think that he's going to make a huge difference in this one either the way the past couple have gone. Victor Wembanayama also returned in the last game, helping the Spurs to a dominant win. Having won both of the games on the road by double digits, what's to say they can't come back home and do the same thing. Don't expect San Antonio to play against with Portland at all. It'll get the job done here this evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 119-94 Spurs.

(#564) Denver Nuggets | ATS | . 

Minnesota might have taken a commanding lead in this series. That being said, this series is far from over, even at three games to one. The Timberwolves will now have to deal with the injury of Donte DiVincenzo as well as superstar Anthony Edwards. I do not expect Edwards to play in this game, no matter how tough he is. Therefore, Minnesota will have to deal with both of those two important knocks, as well as going back on the road against a fanbase that's surely going to get behind the team. Denver's been elite at home all season long. After McDaniels messed around at the end of the game like that by going for a layup w/ no shot clock, you just know that Nikola Jokic is going to take matters into his own hands in Game 5. Give me the Nuggets to win big & force a Game 6 right back in Minnesota. Don't be shocked if Denver still wins this series if Ant isn't able to come back. 

Burns' Prediction: 123-104 Nuggets.

(#558) Houston Rockets | ATS | . 

Los Angeles has definitely been in control in this series, setting the tone with its physicality and ability to perform in crunch time. That being said, I don't expect the Rockets to go down without a fight. The Lakers still won't get back Reaves or Luka for this contest and the Rockets owned an outstanding 30-11 record on their home court throughout this season. 

It's definitely asking a lot for Houston to come all the way back now given that it's down 3-0. As a matter of fact, no team has ever came back from this deficit in the NBA. However, I do believe that the Rockets are going to show a bit of heart to avoid the sweep. LAL will definitely try its best to avoid that to claim a spot in the West Semis while leaving plenty of time for its stars to recover. But, considering the line & what I've seen all season, don't expect Houston to just stop playing. Give me HOU in Game 4. 

Burns' Prediction: 106-99 Houston.

(#553) San Antonio Spurs | ATS | . 

I won with the Spurs in Game 3 at a much cheaper price. That being said, I'm still willing to lay this number with San Antonio on Sunday in Game 4. Victor Wembanyama's status is still uncertain and will probably be decided around tip-off. However, I like SAS with him or without him here this afternoon. 

Portland had its chance, when it was up throughout the majority of Game 3. But, considering how the Spurs closed that game, I don't think that the Trail Blazers have much of a chance here in Game 4. Dylan Harper has become a massive piece to the Spurs success in these playoffs. Fox didn't even shoot great like I expected in the last game either. If he's hitting his shots, look out. Give me the Spurs in a big time double digit win. 

Burns' Prediction: 125-103 Spurs.

(#545) New York Knicks | ATS | . 

Through three games, I believe that this has been the most competitive so far. That being said, I believe that this is tremendous value on a Knicks team that desperately needs another win to even back up the series on Saturday. During the season, Atlanta played pretty similar ball on the road as it did at home. I believe that the Hawks will struggling winning consecutive games here at home against a team that's had their number here in the past. 

Looking at recent meetings here, six of the most recent eight here at State Farm Arena have gone in favor of the Knicks. While New York doesn't have Thibodeau coaching them this season, Mike Brown won three championships as an assistant w/ the Warriors & I'm not writing him off just because of a couple of playoff games. He knows how to win and he will respond. 

In this matchup, I expect a lot more from Brunson. Don't get me wrong, scoring 26 points in Game 3 is most definitely enough for some players. But, for him, I believe he's capable of much more than 26 on 0/5 shooting from 3pt range. Give me the Knicks to respond and even up the series at two games a piece on Saturday evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 112-102 Knicks.

(#541) Detroit Pistons | ATS | . 

Heading into this Game 3 on Saturday afternoon, lots is on the line. Historically, the winner of Game 3 in a series that's tied at one game a piece has an all-time record of 162-59 (73.3%) to win the series. That being said, winning this game is crucial. Detroit started to find its rhythm in the fourth quarter of the last game and I'm expecting it to continue the hot shooting into this game and throughout the rest of the series. 

Don't get me wrong, the Magic can be a tough team to beat on their day, just like in Game 1. However, this Pistons team has shown resilience to win both at home & on the road throughout this season. Give me the Pistons at this price all day long. 

Burns' Prediction: 112-98 Pistons.

(#539) San Antonio Spurs | ATS | . 

Even though Victor Wembanyama suffered an injury in Game Two, leaving his status uncertain for Game Three (probably a no-go,) I fully believe that the Spurs still hold a massive edge in this series. They had to play plenty of games without him during the season and were still very strong in those contests. This one is on the road. But, the Spurs still had a much better record away from home than the Blazers did at home throughout the season. 

For Portland, it can have a bit of a sigh of relief having stolen Game 2 on the road. That being said, this could cause the players to ease up a bit with the home advantage now. That's not going to help the Trail Blazers whatsoever. This series is very much still wide open and San Antonio is definitely going to want to come to Portland and establish its presence early and often. I like Fox to have a massive game on Friday. Lay the couple of points. 

Burns' Prediction: 119-106 Spurs.

(#513) Portland Trail Blazers @ (#514) San Antonio Spurs | OVER | . 

Game 1 saw a much lower scoring game as the Spurs went on to win that game 111-98. While the playoffs always involve a more intense level of defensive play, I still believe that we're going to see a few high scoring games in this series and this one definitely could be one of those. The Blazers, who average 14.5 threes per game, were only able to hit 10 on Sunday. 

During the season, all three games finished below the number. The total has also continuously gone down since the first game of the year between the two teams (240.5, 234.5, 229.5, 223.5.) Now that the total is below 220, I believe that there's excellent value on the "over" as both teams went "over" the number in more games than not against conference opponents this season. All in all, this one could be much closer and more active down the stretch with fouling as well. Give me the "over" as my ROUND 1 TOY. 

Burns' Prediction: 120-109 Spurs.

(#585) Philadelphia 76ers | ATS | . 

As good as Boston is, I believe that this line is way too high for this Game 1 matchup between division rivals. Even without Embiid, I'm a fan of this 76ers roster. VJ Edgecombe has been absolutely gigantic during his rookie season & Tyrese Maxey has proven that he can carry a team to wins if need be. Not to mention that Paul George is also one of the most consistent players in the NBA still, with lots of playoff experience. 

Don't get me wrong, the Celtics are definitely favorites to win this series and move on. But, don't be shocked if Philadelphia keeps the series close and makes things interesting. The Sixers did in fact go into the TD Garden and beat the Celtics earlier on this season on opening night. Did you know that teams that are favorites of 10+ points, after beating the spread by 54+ points over its past ten games are just 6-29 ATS since 2017?? - That 6-29 record comes against opponents that have gone under the total by 54+ points over their most recent 10 games. 

Having said all of that, and considering the point spread for this one, it's still difficult to see Philly pulling off the upset in the clutch in a road playoff atmosphere. But, expect the Sixers to at the very least come away with a hard fought single digit loss in this basketball game on Sunday afternoon. 

Burns' Prediction: 112-109 Celtics.

(#561) Orlando Magic @ (#562) Philadelphia 76ers | OVER | . 

I expect an electrifying encounter in this one on Wednesday evening. Orlando has looked a bit tentative at times, on both sides of the ball. But, the Magic are still a slightly above average "pace" playing team this season, especially as of late. The Magic are making a real push at the playoffs and even though a matchup with Boston seems like an uphill battle, when it's playoff time, anything can happen. Over their most recent six games, the Magic have averaged 123.2 PPG. I'm expecting them to keep up the high tempo in this one. 

Once Philadelphia gets going, it runs until there's no tomorrow as well. The Sixers sit just behind the Magic on the season for tempo. However, with this lineup, I expect them to be very energetic as well in this one. Philly comes in with confidence, off consecutive wins and this should be a game where it shows it's best stuff, at home for a chance at the playoffs. Expect lots of points in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 123-115 Sixers.

(#563) Portland Trail Blazers @ (#564) Phoenix Suns | OVER | . 

This line continues to come down and I'm not sure why. I believe that it's going in the wrong direction. Phoenix does play rather slow. However, the Suns are also more than capable of putting points on the board. They shoot a ton of 3-balls & make 14.8 per game which is good for top five in the NBA. Having just scored 135 on the #1 seed - OKC, I expect the Suns to be feeling very confident for this basketball game. 

Portland plays on the faster side of things, the pace should cancel out here and it should be a fairly average paced contest. The Blazers also shoot a lot of threes and make 14.5 per game (7th.) They've scored 238 points over the past couple of games, good for an average of 119 per game. 

There's also something to be said about playoff ball being more physical and defensive minded. Now, that's true. But, considering the fact that two of the three matchups saw 235+ points when these two teams matched up, I like this one to go at least "over" 220. The time that these teams went way "under" in February, the Suns had practically its whole team out and Portland didn't have Sharpe. Hammer the "over" in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 117-112 Suns.

(#537) Orlando Magic @ (#538) Boston Celtics | OVER | . 

While Boston has already secured the number two seed in the Eastern Conference, Orlando is still trying to avoid the play-in tournament. The Magic have little chance to do so, considering Atlanta holds the tiebreaker on them and Toronto plays against Brooklyn. However, it could definitely happen as stranger things have happened. Therefore, the Magic should go for it on Sunday evening vs. the Celtics. 

The last time that these two teams matched up, the Magic were able to score 129 on Boston. As a matter of fact, they are averaging 119.66 PPG over the three games against the C's this season. Boston's always going to get its points, even with its bench players in, as Joe Mazulla fears nobody. I've got the "over" in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 119-116 Celtics.

(#533) Atlanta Hawks | ATS | . 

These two teams have played three times so far this season and Miami's been able to win twice. I know that the Heat are probably considered the more high flying offensive team, I do believe that Atlanta should be able to match it and play even better than Miami in this basketball game. The Hawks are currently in 5th place in the East. However, with a Raptors win against Brooklyn (highly likely) & a Hawks loss here, the Raptors would move into the 5th position. Miami is playing in the Play-In Tournament no matter what & I believe that it's going to have a very tough time getting through both of those games, yet alone the first one. The Hawks are going to want this game more and their 3pt shooting dominance should get them the easy win on Sunday evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 132-117 Hawks.

***awful line on Hawks - starters unlikely. Expect Atlanta to still challenge Miami physically and that will take a toll on the Heat's defense as the game goes on. Miami won't be at full strength either.

(#503) Detroit Pistons @ (#504) Charlotte Hornets | UNDER | . 

Because of the stakes of this game for Charlotte, it's the favorite in this evening's game. I still believe that the Pistons are going to try and play as well as they can because who wouldn't. But, I'm all over the "under" in this contest. When these two teams played in December, the total was 234.5 in a game that ended 112-86. In the February meeting, the line dropped significantly, down to 221.5 and the final was 110-104. Even though I don't always love playing on the thing that's been occurring throughout the year always, this is a case where both teams play shutdown defense and should be in for another one of those games on Friday. Charlotte's gone six straight contests allowing less than 115 points and I'm hammering the "under" this evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 109-102 Hornets.

(#560) San Antonio Spurs | ATS | . 

I know that Victor Wembanyama/Stephon Castle are doubtful for this evening's contest. But, this Spurs team is much more than just Wemby/Castle. The Spurs have had to play without the big man for quite a few games this season already and have continued to have success. With excellent guard play still, and a system that relies on depth and a team brand of basketball, I'm expecting San Antonio to continue the winning, even without those guys. Portland is still expected to be without Shaedon Sharpe. Even though the Blazers are probably one of the best non-playoff teams, if not the best, I think that this is a case of the Spurs just wanting the game more. Being at home, look for Fox to help carry SAS to another win. 

Burns' Prediction: 126-109 Spurs.

(#551) Houston Rockets | ATS | . 

Although the Suns are pretty much back to full strength now, I'm still not sold on them for the remainder of the season. Phoenix struggles at times to get production out of its front court, and that's not something you like to see when your team is playing against one of the lengthiest sides in the NBA. The Suns also haven't been home in over a week & the first game back from a road trip is always dangerous. 

Houston, on the other hand, is riding a six game winning streak. Ime Udoka has his side playing fantastic basketball at the moment and I just don't see that changing here on Tuesday evening. The Rockets are led by perhaps the greatest pure scorer in NBA history in Kevin Durant. Plus, he's got a great supporting cast this season. Both of these two teams are fighting for seeding in the West standings. Phoenix will probably just have to be content where it is though. Give me Houston in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 109-102 Rockets.

(#540) Boston Celtics | ATS | . 

Having just went on the road and beating Minnesota, I don't believe that Charlotte's going to be able to do win consecutive road games against top playoff contenders. Don't get me wrong, I've been really impressed with what I've seen from this healthy Hornets squad. However, this is the toughest matchup out there and the C's might just be fully healthy as well. 

In the first meeting, Jayson Tatum was still sidelined while recovering from his achilles tear. In the second meeting (when BOS won,) Jaylen Brown was out with an injury. Now, Boston's expected to have both of its superstars and I don't expect that to be a good thing for Charlotte. This game is at the TD Garden and I've got the C's by double digits. 

Burns' Prediction: 117-105 Celtics.

(#701) Connecticut @ (#702) Michigan | OVER | . 

While UCONN surprised me slightly, by shooting at much higher percentages in the Final Four matchup against Illinois, I'm not going to count the Huskies out of this game like a lot of people are. I believe that if they can shoot lights out and have success defending the paint again, it's going to be right in this game. That being said, UCONN's going to have to score lots of points to have a chance and I think that it's going to help the "over's" cause very much so. 

Michigan is the first team in College Basketball history to score 90+ points in five NCAA Tournament games. In the Wolverines' Final Four game, they looked pretty much unbeatable, making so many tough shots and not allowing Arizona to get settled in early. MICH will dictate the pace of this game and they play at the #22 fastest tempo in the country. Give me the "over" in the National Title Game. 

Burns' Prediction: 84-70 Michigan.

(#507) Toronto Raptors @ (#508) Boston Celtics | UNDER | . 

Even though the Raptors shoot a high percentage from the field, I believe that they are going to have a tougher time in this contest on the road against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Toronto isn't the best three point shooting team either. That makes things difficult in games like this as underdogs. 

Boston shoots a lot of threes, and even though a lot of them seem to go in, a lot miss as well. The Celtics play at the slowest pace in the NBA, dead last in the league in offensive possessions per game (only team with less than 100.) They will slow this game down and play to their strengths. I don't see Toronto getting more than 105 tonight, and wouldn't be shocked if it was held below 100. Give me the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 109-100 Celtics.

(#649) Illinois Fighting Illini | ATS | . 

Illinois has proven the doubters wrong throughout this March Madness Tournament with some of the most impressive performances so far. Beating up on Houston, in Houston was one thing. But, being able to win all four of its games by double digits and with ease for the most part has been fantastic to watch. I'm a big fan of this roster, filled with overseas talent as well as one of best freshman in the nation in Keaton Wagler. 

Throughout the year, the Fighting Illini have been one of the best teams in the country. It was just a matter of what Illinois we were going to get. Prior to the NCAA Tourney, it had lost five of its final nine games (including Big Ten Tournament.) The Illini have a massive team that's built on shooting threes and attacking the rim. I like that type of style for this matchup against UCONN. 

Connecticut shocked the world by beating Duke in the Elite Eight with one of the most incredible shots in March Madness history. Braylon Mullins didn't hit a single three prior to that logo heave and although it was ridiculous to watch, Connecticut did struggle in that game in the first half. The Huskies showed resilience and poise to comeback from down 19pts. But, they didn't shoot well in that game from deep and forcing the ball inside is not going to work as well against one of the best teams in the country at not fouling. 

In the end, I believe that it's going to come down to guard play and execution. Keaton Wagler, who I mentioned early, has a chance to keep improving his draft stock and perhaps be drafted inside the top five of this upcoming NBA draft. I expect a huge game from him and I've got the Fighting Illini playing in the CBB Men's Basketball Championship Game on Monday. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-66 Illinois.

(#561) New Orleans Pelicans | 1H ATS | . 

While I do know that both of these teams are eliminated from playoff contention, I think that this is a great spot for the Pelicans to knock off the Kings. Sacramento just played a great game against Toronto on Wednesday, winning by eight. Now, even though Sacramento is dead last in the Western Conference, winning too many more games could really decrease its chances of owning a top three pick in this offseason's NBA Draft. On the other hand, the Pelicans don't even own their first round pick this season which makes it pretty meaningless to lose as many games as they can. New Orleans has won three consecutive matchups when these teams have met. Not only that, but Malik Monk is questionable and he's been a big part over the past couple of games for Sac-Town. I'm on New Orleans here to dominate from the opening tip. 

Burns' 1H Prediction: 63-52 Pels.

**1H selection. If not available like here. Take full game. 

(#517) Atlanta Hawks @ (#518) Orlando Magic | OVER | . 

Atlanta has really amped up the pressure on teams since the All-Star break and I believe that it's going to be a problem for a lot of teams down the final stretch of the season. The Hawks are the five seed currently in the Eastern Conference and are still trying to avoid the play-in tournament and have a secured spot in the postseason. That's going to put some pressure on this contest against another team that's trying to avoid the play-in tourney in Orlando. 

Talking about the Magic, they played yesterday and probably won't bring the same intensity defensively on Wednesday night. Tuesday's game was against the Suns, who are a great defensive team. Now, this is a much different type of game where Atlanta will try to outscore you rather than play tough defense. 

These teams have met twice so far this season and both games have gone "over" the number. Although that's not always the best sign to look at, the Hawks simply play at a very fast tempo and that should continue here this evening. I expect lots of points on Wednesday once again between these two divisional foes. 

Burns' Prediction: 124-117 Hawks.

(#509) Dallas Mavericks | ATS | . 

I know that this is a battle between two teams that aren't going to be in this year's playoff. But, I have much more confidence in this Mavericks team at the moment than I do with the Bucks. Dallas, who's still playing hard despite the struggles, still wants to grow Cooper Flagg's game as much as possible this year. Preparing him for his second year is going to be key as Dallas should be back in the playoff conversation in a year from now, that's for sure. 

Although the same could be said about Milwaukee, it doesn't have a rookie superstar the same way that Dallas has. The Bucks are without Giannis still and every game is looking more and more dreadful for them. As a matter of fact, they've lost four consecutive games, all by double digits. I expect a Mavs win here. 

Burns' Prediction: 116-105 Mavs.

(#532) Atlanta Hawks | ATS | . 

Even though the Sacramento Kings are coming off a strong showing against Orlando in their most recent game, I'm still not impressed with how they've played this season, even with the injuries. The Kings are dead last in the Western Conference and could be trying to get the best odds at the best draft pick in this upcoming draft. We all know how stacked this class is expected to be and a few more losses could be the difference between many picks with the amount of poor teams this season. 

I just won against Atlanta yesterday. I like the Hawks to respond in a massive way on Saturday. Still 14-2 over their latest 16 contests, the Hawks should remain one of the hottest teams in the NBA entering the playoffs next month. I expect Atlanta's pace to continue to overwhelm some teams and that should result in decent success. Give me Atlanta winning big on Saturday. 

Burns' Prediction: 129-104 Hawks.

(#629) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (#630) Illinois Fighting Illini | UNDER | . 

These teams met earlier in the season, as Big Ten members, and we saw a closely contested ball game. I know that the first meeting had plenty of offense, with Illinois taking the game 75-69. However, this time around, I'm expecting a much lower scoring affair. Iowa's been one of the slowest playing teams all season long and remains the #361 ranked team in KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. Adding to that, the Hawkeyes average the 3rd slowest time per offensive possession. 

Illinois showcased just how dominant its defense can be in the Sweet Sixteen win against Houston. That was an out-of-this-world performance defensively and I wouldn't be shocked if the Fighting Illini are able to do similar things here today. With one of the best offenses in the country too, the total is being pushed up higher slightly. But, the Illini also play on the slower end, with the #286 tempo nationally. With so much on the line, and a chance to get to the final four, I expect both teams to have some jitters offensively, especially early in this one. I believe that we're going to see a defensive war. Give me the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 67-61 Illinois.

(#628) Iowa State Cyclones | ATS | . 

Tennessee managed to survive against Virginia in its Rof32 game on Sunday. Although they did enough to win in the end, I did not like what I saw from the Volunteers down the stretch of that game, with bad shot selection and near turnovers that could've costed them the game. If those don' get cleaned up over the next few days, it's going to be a long Sweet Sixteen matchup or Tennessee against Iowa State. 

If you joined me for my 2nd Round GOY on Iowa State, congrats. I love this Cyclone team this season and they proved just how good they were on Sunday against Kentucky, even without their best overall player in Joshua Jefferson. Now, I'm hoping that Jefferson is back for this contest. But, I'm going to assume the worst here and I definitely still like them to win this game comfortably without the big man. 

Compared to Kentucky, Tennessee is even worse at keeping a hold of the ball offensively. The Volunteers have turned the ball over 26 times over their first couple of games and it hasn't come back to hurt them. It sure will on Friday against ISU if those numbers keep up. Iowa State forced 20 turnovers on Sunday against UK and I simply just think it's a case of the SEC not having enough great full pressure defensive teams. In my opinion, the only team that comes close to ISU defensive wise in the SEC is Florida. Although the Gators just got knocked out by Iowa, they still had a phenomenal year and beat this Tennessee team by 24 during the season.

The Cyclones didn't shoot the three ball well in the first half against Kentucky and were still well below the season average by the end of the game. I don't expect them to struggle like that nearly as much in this one. I like the Cyclones to win big once again and roll to the Elite Eight against the winner of Michigan/Alabama. 

Burns' Prediction: 73-62 ISU.

(#623) Michigan State Spartans | ATS | . 

Although I expect this to be a very close encounter, I do believe that there's some value on taking the underdog in this contest. #3 seeded Michigan State enters the Sweet Sixteen ranked one spot ahead of UCONN in KenPom's efficiency rankings and I believe it's for good reasoning. The Spartans have a fantastic offense with great shooting inside & out. They also do a great job from the FT line. 

Connecticut, on the other hand, struggles from the line at times and isn't too impressive from beyond the arc either. The Huskies do have an elite defense, which causes problems for a lot of teams. But, MSU can match that level of intensity on the other side of the ball. Player for player in this matchup, I like the Spartans. I'll grab the points in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 69-64 MSU.

(#512) Boston Celtics | ATS | . 

As hot as the Hawks have been over the past month, I believe that this is a great spot to go against them. During this 14-1 run that Atlanta's currently on, it's been able to overwhelm teams with offensive power and pace (just like Miami has this season.) In its loss though, that was against a much slower playing Houston group (Boston's the slowest in the league.) 

Looking at the Celtics, they are coming off a fantastic showing against OKC as they knocked off the defending champs. Boston is now 25-11 at home this season and with Tatum back, it's definitely a title contending team. Jaylen Brown is having a phenomenal year. Even if Atlanta's able to keep this one close throughout, I believe that the end-game of the Celtics at home should be enough to get them the cover. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if the C's dominated the entirety of the contest. 

Burns' Prediction: 121-106 Celtics.

(#614) Houston Cougars | ATS | . 

Although I'm a massive fan of both of these teams, I do believe that this game being in Houston should help the Cougars drastically. Illinois' been one of the best offensive minded teams all season long. I know that the Fighting Illini probably are stronger on that side of the ball. However, I don't know that it will be enough in this one. 

To cancel out the offensive prowess of Illinois, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars are always ready for the battle defensively. This is a team that made the final last year and are aiming for gold, nothing less. I also think that Flemings will show up when the lights are bright. Considering practically having home-court in a Sweet Sixteen game, I'll ride with "MY" preseason #1 team. 

Burns' Prediction: 72-63 Houston.

(#571) Washington Wizards | ATS | . 

This isn't exactly what you'd call an exciting contest with anything on the line. However, I believe that there's still a ton of value on playing on this game. The Wizards are 10-5 ATS over their most recent 15 games played as an underdog of less than 5pts. Make that 18-9 ATS over their past 27 games in the same scenario since the start of the 2023-24 season. 

Utah's been out of sorts too this season with plenty of injuries. The Jazz have been just as un-impressive to me as the Wizards have been recently, with horrible defensive play and not much output other than Ace Bailey. Since 2022, road teams that just allowed 115+ points in five consecutive contests against an opponent that just allowed 125+ points in a game are 50-14 (78.1%) ATS. Give me the Wizards to end the 16-game losing streak on Wednesday. 

Burns' Prediction: 126-115 Wizards

(#607) Illinois State Redbirds | ATS | . 

Dayton might've had the stronger season and played tougher opponents. But, I believe that this spot sets up well for the road team that's got plenty more in the tank after beating Wake Forest last time out. While Dayton likes to get quite a bit of its points from the free throw line, the Redbirds do a fantastic job at limiting opposing teams chances from the charity stripe. 

The Flyers aren't so good at defending the 3pt line and that's something that Illinois State should be able to take advantage of in my eyes. I believe that this spread is too big and I'm even going to call for the outright win. However, take the points with Illinois State. 

Burns' Prediction: 73-68 Illinois State.

(#537) Oklahoma City Thunder | ATS | . 

Finally starting to get fully healthy again, the Thunder look nearly unstoppable. They won 11 consecutive contests now and if this squad was able to stay healthy throughout the entirety of the season, we'd probably be still debating on whether the record of regular season wins would be broken or not. However many wins the Thunder end up with, this is a team that's going to be scary for any team to play against, yet alone one that's extremely banged up in Philadelphia. With no Maxey, Embiid or Oubre in this game, I don't see the Sixers keeping this matchup close. Edgecombe will do his best to keep it close for a while. In the end, expect the Thunder to push away and win by 20+ points on Monday. 

Burns' Prediction: 131-106 Thunder.

(#809) Texas Tech Red Raiders @ (#810) Alabama Crimson Tide | OVER | . 

I know that there's definitely something to be said for tournament games being much more physical & defensive minded. However, I'm expecting absolute fireworks in this contest on Sunday in the Rof32. Texas Tech might be on the slower side for "tempo." But, the Red Raiders sure love to shoot the three ball and that's not going to stop here. Averaging 80.4 PPG, they are going up against one of the worst defenses in power-four ball here. 

We all know that Alabama likes to run. The Crimson Tide finally got going in the second half of their first round contest vs. Hofstra and still ended up with 90 points even after 37 in the first half. Bama averages 91.7 PPG which is the #1 mark in the whole country. Even without Holloway, they love to run in transition, attack the paint as well as get open looks from deep. 

I simply don't believe that there's going to be much defense in this game. TTU's offense looked fantastic on Friday and Alabama's not going to be able to slow the Red Raiders down. I do expect the Tide to get their share of points as well. This one could also come down to the wire with fouls late. Give me the "over."

Burns' Prediction: 92-83 Texas Tech.

(#820) Iowa State Cyclones | ATS | . 

Kentucky barely survived Santa Clara, forcing OT with an absolute prayer at the buzzer and outlasting the Broncos with their length. This time around, I don't expect the Wildcats to be able to have that much success inside the paint. In the second half/OT, Kentucky dominated the 2pt game. That's going to be very difficult here. 

Iowa State did see star forward Joshua Jefferson come down with an ankle sprain 3 minutes into the dominant showing against Tennessee State. However, x-ray's came back negative and the big man is labelled as day-to-day. Even if Jefferson isn't able to go on Sunday, ISU showed just how good it is in all aspects of the game. As I mentioned in my free pick on ISU on Friday, the Cyclones are "a legitimate title contender in my eyes." 

During the season, Kentucky got into a lot of trouble against the best teams in the country. Obviously, the Wildcats are going to get some wins against quality opponents as well playing in the SEC. But, they finished the year 2-5 down the stretch of the regular season and suffered losses against Louisville, MSU, UNC & Gonzaga in the non-conference schedule. It's best non-con win was against St. John's when the Red Storm shot horribly at a 34.6% rate from the field & 26.3% from deep. The next best win was against a non-tournament team in Indiana. 

Iowa State, on the other hand, beat St. John's, Purdue, Iowa, Syracuse & Creighton out of conference. As a matter of fact, the Cyclones haven't lost a single game against an opponent from another conference all season. They are so consistent and have been phenomenal down the stretch of the season. That being said, I'll lay the points with ISU in the Rof32 with or without Jefferson. 

Burns' Prediction: 79-65 Iowa State.

(#785) High Point Panthers | ATS | . 

After seeing these two teams play on Thursday and get a taste of the madness, I believe that there's plenty of value on this High Point team. The Panthers upset Wisconsin in the opening round and shot just 16-34 (47%) from 2pt range. That's significant because they average 56.8% on the season (15th in the country) and Arkansas allows 53.7% inside this season which is in the bottom half of the nation. 

Talking about Arkansas, the Razorbacks have played in close games all season. I do absolutely love Darius Acuff Jr. I truly think he could turn out to the be the best player in this upcoming draft. But, the Razorbacks also do struggle against teams that can match their pace. With losses to Alabama, Georgia and Florida. 

High Point is on the nation's longest winning streak currently at 15-games. Turnovers could be the downfall of Arkansas who statistically keeps the ball very well, but I've watched it be very lackadaisical at times with the ball. While I'm not going to call for the outright win, it's most definitely possible in a potential look-ahead spot to the next matchup of Arizona for some of these Arkansas members. 

Burns' Prediction: 82-79 Arkansas.

(#774) Michigan State Spartans | ATS | . 

While it was definitely a "chalky" first round with no upsets on Friday, I do believe that it's going to stay that way, at least for this contest on Saturday. I barely snuck a back-door winner on South Florida against Louisville on Thursday and I'm willing to roll the dice against the Cardinals once again on Saturday. I mean, they were without their star PG. But, to allow a "mid-major" team that shot 5-33 (15%) from three to lose by only four against you in the opening game? That's not impressive to me. Michigan State's going to cause a lot of problems for Louisville on Saturday, especially with Mikel Brown Jr out once again. The Spartans are dominant on the glass and own a much stronger perimeter defense than we saw in the USF game. The Spartans also are significantly stronger offensively, shooting at much better percentages. I'm not a fan with the way Pat Kelsey manages this team. Louisville has lost to the "good" teams all season. I would have liked to play MSU early at -2.5, but I'll still lay the points here. 

Burns' Prediction: 80-69 MSU.

(#767) California Baptist Lancers vs. (#768) Kansas Jayhawks | UNDER | . 

This is a very intriguing matchup in my opinion. People love upsets in March and this could definitely be a game where the lower seed come come away with the win in the final moments. But, I'm taking a different approach as I find value in the total of this contest. 

California Baptist is phenomenal defensively. With the 50th ranked defensive efficiency in the country, the Lancers also hold teams to very low percentages. Their effective FG% against ranks 15th nationally while they hold opponents to less than 30% from 3pt land which gives them the 6th best in the nation. More importantly, they know how to keep teams out of the paint as the average distance to the hoop on 2s that they allow is 6.4 feet away from the basket which ranks 75th. 

Although Kansas plays faster between these two teams, the Jayhawks also are much better on the defensive end. The Jayhawks rank 10th in defensive efficiency and had a horrific offensive showing in their most recent game, scoring only 47 points against another strong defensive group in Houston. If Kansas can't knock down it's shot early, it could be on upset watch. But, even if the Jayhawks are able to score some early baskets, I expect them to slow the game down considering how big this game is. 

One thing to note too is that Kansas ranks in the bottom half of the country (211th) in 2pt field goal percentage at 51.1%. With how good the Lancers are at defending the three ball, this is a great matchup for the defenses. This line is too high and I wouldn't be shocked if it comes down a tad before tip. 

Burns' Prediction: 65-62 Kansas.

(#747) Iowa Hawkeyes | ATS | . 

I do respect Clemson and I had really enjoyed watching its first half of the season. However, times have changed and I believe that the Tigers are going to be in for a very difficult contest on Friday evening. They just lost their big man, in Carter Welling, for the season. He's one of two double digit scorers for the Tigers and has definitely been their most efficient player all season long. 

Up against Iowa, a team that punishes weak interior play, I believe that this is a great first matchup for the Hawkeyes. If you've never heard of him, Head coach Ben McCollum is like the CBB version of Curt Cignetti (Indiana Hoosiers Football HC.) Over 16 seasons coaching Northwest Missouri State, he owned a 394–91 record. At Drake last year, he went 31-4. This guy doesn't lose. Considering he brought some guys over from his Drake team a year ago including Bennett Stirtz, I expect the senior to dominate this game and survive at least one more game. Lay the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 66-57 Iowa.

(#740) Gonzaga Bulldogs | ATS | . 

As much as I like Kennesaw State as a team that plays fast and attack the offensive glass, I do not think that this is a great matchup for the Owls. Kennesaw is on the more ineffective side of the spectrum when it comes to shooting the ball, ranking 204th in effective FG%. The Owls also foul a ton and like to get fouled. If you saw my recent analysis on them, you'd know that they rank T-2nd in FT attempts per game, and also rank T-4th worst in FT allowed per game. Gonzaga will absolutely feed off of that. The Bulldogs shoot a ton of two's with more than 60% of their buckets coming on 2pt field goals. That should lead to plenty of opportunities in the paint and at the free throw line. On defense, they do an excellent job at keeping teams out of the paint, making teams shoot the three ball, while also defending the perimeter at an elite level. Kennesaw struggles at time to hit the three. Let's also note that the Owls' go-to guy from the beginning of the season, Simeon Cottle, has been suspended for the past couple of months. I think not having him is going to be the nail in the coffin. Expect the Zags to win by on Thursday evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 93-65 Zags.

(#715) Saint Louis Billikens | ATS | . 

Two of the fastest playing teams in the country get to face off against each other in the opening round of the dance. Even though Saint Louis lost by a practical buzzer beater in its conference tournament, it's one of the best mid-major programs that I've seen in a very long time. Ranked as a #9 seed, I believe that the Billikens have the ability to keep games close and have a chance against any team in the country. 

SLU star, Robbie Avila had the chance to play anywhere in the country and decided to come back and try and win something with Saint Louis. Him and head coach Josh Schertz have built something here this season and I expect it to continue past the round of 64. 

Let's breakdown these two teams. Georgia is much better offensively than defensively, and obviously loves to run (16th in tempo.) The Bulldogs don't shoot the three at an extremely high rate though (34.1% - 170th) despite the good offensive numbers. Defensively, their perimeter defense has hurt them at times, especially against Ole Miss when the "dawgs" allowed the Rebels to shoot 45% from distance. 

That's something to keep an eye on because the Billikens shoot the ball at the second highest rate in College Basketball - 40.5% on the season. Saint Louis' overall numbers might not be as strong offensively as UGA's. But, the Billikens are 15th nationally in effective FG percentage and play a very analytical brand of basketball, averaging the closest distance to the hoop in the country on 2pt attempts this year. 

I do like SLU's defense a whole lot better than I like Georgia's. Along with their amazing analytics with shooting the ball, the Billikens combine that with the 2nd ranked effective FG% against, as well as the 8th best 3pt percentage allowed and the 5th best 2pt percentage allowed in the country. No, Saint Louis isn't going to turn you over like a lot of strong defensive teams do. But, it will force you to take extremely tough shots and make them. 

On the season, Georgia had been a team that gets a ton of blocked shots. But, lately, that hasn't really been the case with just 5 blocks over the past two games. Even if Georgia wins this game, it would likely be on a game winning shot like Dayton had in the A10 tournament. I don't see the Billikens losing this game though and I've got them into the Round of 32 against Michigan (more than likely.) 

Burns' Prediction: 91-84 SLU.

(#709) South Florida Bulls | ATS | . 

I really like South Florida in this year's tournament. The Bulls are currently on the nation's 3rd longest winning streak at 11 games and looked very strong within the American Tournament. I know that the formerly known conference of "AAC" wasn't so strong this season, with Memphis struggling. However, the Bulls have a big win against Utah St by double digits this season and also blew out another tournament team in Kennesaw State earlier this season. USF ranks 7th in the nation in offensive rebounding % and also plays a very analytical based brand of basketball, averaging the 3rd closest 2pt percentage in the country. Louisville has some question marks coming into the NCAA Tournament. Is Mikel Brown Jr playing? He missed the ACC Tournament and even though he's expected to play in this contest, I do believe that he's not going to be at 100%. Louisville shoots a ton of threes and hits them at a decent rate. However, USF's perimeter defense has been excellent lately, allowing just 31/122 on 3pt attempts over its past five games. That's an average of just 25% and that includes two tournament games! Give me the Bulls in an upset. 

Burns' Prediction: 81-75 USF.

(#501) Golden State Warriors | ATS | . 

Both of these two teams are struggling at the moment. As much as the Warriors can't wait to get Steph Curry back, they are still very much in the conversation of being one of the last teams in the NBA play-in tournament. Having said that, they must still win these types of games. Golden State played NYK very competitively, on the road in its last game and if it brings the same intensity, I expect a great result here on Monday. 

Washington is in full "tank-mode." As much as the NBA wants to punish teams for tanking, the Wizards are straight up bad. Over this 11 game skid, the Wizards have given up 120+ in nine of those games. They've also allowed 83 points to Bam Adebayo over this stretch. Even coming off a pair of ATS wins, I don't expect Washington to put up much of a fight today. Lay the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 119-104 Warriors.

(#648) South Florida Bulls | ATS | . 

Wichita State was able to knock off Tulsa in the semis. Although it was a strong performance, I am not sold on the Shockers quite yet. That win sets up a battle against the squad that's been the #1 team in the conference throughout the season. Wichita plays significantly slower than USF and also hasn't shot the ball all that well this season. As a matter of fact, the Shockers are 244th in effective FG% and just 303rd in FT percentage on the year. 

South Florida had a tight game against Charlotte for about 25 minutes. Then the Bulls exploded and ended up winning the game by 22 points. All season long, they've shown the ability to use their analytical approach to roll through the conference, and that's why they are on a 10 game win streak at the moment. USF already beat Wichita State by eight on the road. Give me the Bulls at this neutral site. 

Burns' Prediction: 83-70 USF.

(#306546) Southern Jaguars | ATS | . 

Both teams like to play very fast. But, I believe that the Southern Jaguars are the much more efficient program. It's been a fantastic stretch of winning for Prairie View A&M who's won four games in four days. However, outside of their #1 scoring option in Dontae Horne, the Panthers are one of the least efficient offensive teams in the country. They rank 321st in effective FG %. Also, Prairie View A&M was +4000 to win this tournament entering it, while Southern was +270. Something seems off with this line. The Jags barely hung on to win for me yesterday (SWAC TOURNEY GOY.) But, they survived a game where they shot horribly from deep and from the line. I expect much better from Southern today. Lay the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 83-72 Southern.

(#622) Arizona Wildcats | ATS | . 

These two teams might just be my favorite two teams going into March Madness. Coming into the season, Houston had been my prediction to win the whole thing. As the campaign has moved along, I have watched countless amounts of College Basketball and I firmly believe that both of these teams have a real shot at cutting down the nets in April. Having said that, Arizona might just have a slight edge at the moment. 

When these two teams met back in February, Arizona went into Houston and was able to control the second half. I know that it was during a slump of the Cougars and they most definitely seem out of that now. But, at the same time, that was a road game and this one will be held at a neutral court. The Wildcats rank top seven in efficiency in both offense & defense entering this evening's contest. 

One thing that has stood out to me over the past couple of months has something to do with Houston's offense (which ranks outside of the top 15 via. efficiency.) The Cougars are a fantastic team, don't get me wrong. But, at times, the offense can be very stationary and go side-to-side way too much. In order to succeed at this time of the year, you need to be able to go side-to-side as well as downhill. I see Flemings as the only option to go 1-on-1 and find success for Houston in this one. 

Another thing that I saw in the matchup in February was the amount of times that Arizona managed to pick on Flemings on the defensive side. The freshman is phenomenal offensively. But, he's small and can be a liability on the defensive side with the size of the Wildcats. Dell'Orso is coming off a great shooting night and I expect Koa Peat to do a lot more damage than just four points here this evening. I think that Arizona's depth will be too much for Houston to handle on Saturday. 

Burns' Prediction: 72-63 Zona.

(#616) Arkansas Razorbacks | ATS | .

Last night, I had a big play on Alabama, which lost outright against Ole Miss. Bad pick. No excuses. However, I'm still not sold on this Rebels team. I mean, this is a team that dropped 13 of their last 14 games of the regular season and have somehow managed to win not one, not two, but three games on consecutive nights. It's impressive. But, runs always come to an end and that's going to happen on Saturday. 

Arkansas managed to hang on against Oklahoma, who's firmly on the bubble to reach the big dance. The Razorbacks are a bit like Alabama, as they like to play fast and have an elite offense. But, they provide a much better defensive game and I believe it's going to be too much for Mississippi to handle, especially playing their fourth game in four days. Expect the much more rested side to dominate this basketball game. 

Burns' Prediction: 88-71 Arkansas.

(#613) Vanderbilt Commodores vs. (#614) Florida Gators | OVER | . 

I know that conference tournament games and other games played in the month of March are always slightly more intense, with higher quality defense. However, I'm expecting a very offensive showdown on Saturday in this SEC semi-final matchup. Vanderbilt ranks 77th in the country in tempo, combining that with the 8th ranked offensive efficiency. The Commodores managed to put up 75 in their QF game against a very slow Tennessee team. I expect much more today. 

Florida, on the other hand, plays at the 24th fastest pace in the nation. I know that the Gators are considered by some to have the best defense in the country. But, Vanderbilt is actually the team that has put up the most points in a game vs. Florida all season at 94. The Gators also have an elite offense that did a ton of damage down the stretch. The first meeting was very high scoring and I'm expecting this one to be as well. Give me the "over." 

Burns' Prediction: 90-83 Florida.

(#856) San Diego State Aztecs | ML | . 

Well, well, well. This might just be the biggest game of the whole season in terms of meaningfulness. Both of these teams are on the outside of the NCAA Tournament, looking in at the moment and the oddsmakers are expecting an extremely close encounter in this, I suppose you could call it an "elimination game." Even a win in this game might not be enough. But, definitely. The loser will go home without anything meaningful to play for during the rest of March. 

New Mexico lost its best player in the offseason in Donavan Dent, who transferred to UCLA. I know that the Lobos have been great this season, nothing against them. But, I have not been too impressed with their defense at times, especially inside the paint. The Lobos bring in a very in-experienced squad, ranking 313th in the country in D-1 experience (0.87 yrs average.)

On the other hand, this is a very experienced Aztecs group that ranks 72nd in D-1 experience (1.90 yrs average.) San Diego State almost always provides excellent defensive play and even in an "off-night" shooting the ball from deep, the Aztecs are able to find a way to win games just like against CSU last night. SDSU also uses a ton of guys and doesn't rely on just one or two options like UNM does at times. I like the Aztecs to find a way to move on, once again. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-68 SDSU.

(#306523) Southern Jaguars | ATS | . 

During the regular season, these two teams owned the same conference record. Florida A&M got the higher seed on a tiebreaker and now, the two will square off for a chance at the SWAC final. The Rattlers did finish the year quite well, winning four straight games (five now.) I'm not sold on their offense though. Ranking 341st in offensive efficiency and turning the ball over at a bottom 10 rate in the country, I don't see them doing too well in a big time game like this. 

Southern, on the other hand, seeks revenge after dropping both games against Florida A&M during the regular season. The Jaguars are significantly better offensively and have been shooting the ball lights out over the past couple of games. As a matter of fact, they've gone over 60% from 3pt land in consecutive games now! In the last game, Southern had a massive meltdown out of halftime. I don't expect that to happen on Friday. Give me the Jags to move on. 

Burns' Prediction: 81-71 Southern.

(#826) Alabama Crimson Tide | ATS | . 

After finishing the season in style, Alabama's been preparing for postseason ball over the past week. Now, I know that the Tide were probably expecting to play UGA in this matchup. And.. for a lot of teams, this could probably be a letdown spot given how bad Ole Miss was during the regular season. But, I don't expect this Bama team to struggle on Friday. This is a team that went into Mississippi and dominated the Rebels by 19 points during the regular season. Alabama plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, combining that with the 3rd best offensive efficiency nationally. Once they find their groove this evening, look out. 

For Ole Miss, it's had an epic couple of days to even win two games in the SEC Tournament so far. I mean, this is a team that lost 13 of their last 14 games to finish the regular season. The coaches and players of Mississippi are probably saying that the job isn't finished yet. But, in reality, this has already been a successful tournament, as the Rebels can fully start to prepare for next season. Given the differences in pace, I don't believe that the Rebels are going to be able to hang with the Tide for 40 minutes. Even if this game remains closer at halftime, expect a second half rout and another dominant Alabama win as a result. 

Burns' Prediction: 99-74 Bama.

(#815) Kennesaw State vs. (#816) Sam Houston State Bearkats | OVER | . 

I won with the "over" in Kennesaw State in yesterday's game against Western Kentucky (SBC Tourney TOY) and I'm back on another Owls' "over" here this afternoon. If you didn't read the analysis in the selection yesterday, Kennesaw ranks as the 19th fastest playing team in the country, via. KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. The Owls also love to crash the offensive glass and shoot free throws at the 5th highest rate in College Hoops. Not only that, but they allow the second most free throws per game as well. 

Looking at Sam Houston State, it's another program that enjoys pushing the pace and playing up-and-down instead side-to-side. Meaning, they like to attack the hoop or draw up plays, instead of passing back and forth across the top of the key until they find a shot. SHSU also ranks in the top 40 in tempo. Something different about the Bearkats is that they shoot the three ball extremely well, at 37.9%. Expect another high scoring CUSA affair. 

Burns' Prediction: 91-84 SHSU.

(#771) Kennesaw State Owls vs. (#772) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | OVER | . 

I expect a very high scoring game in this CUSA quarterfinal matchup on Thursday. Throughout this season, Kennesaw State has shown the ability to score fast and create havoc on the offensive boards. The Owls rank 19th in the country in adjusted tempo, while averaging the 29th fastest offensive possession time. If you read my "NCAA Conference Tournament Preview" over in the articles section of my page, you'd know that Western Kentucky plays a very similar style to Kennesaw, as it likes to play downhill basketball, driving to the hoop and getting lots of FT attempts. WKU also ranks 62nd in the nation tempo wise. On the year, both teams rank inside the top 20 in the country in free throw attempts per game. Not only that, but both rank inside the top 10 "worst" in free throw attempts allowed per game. I don't see how FT's don't become a massive part in this game and this one should get high scoring near the end. 

Burns' Prediction: 88-86 Kennesaw.

(#773) Tulane Green Wave | ATS | . 

Tulane had to play yesterday against Memphis. As the Tigers have struggled all season, the Green Wave were able to cruise to a victory. Even though Tulane's numbers haven't been all that impressive either this season, I do believe that this is a fantastic spot for the Green Wave to keep rolling and pull off another "mini upset." 

Charlotte's struggled down the stretch, dropping three consecutive contests. I know that Tulane had lost four straight entering this tournament. But, the game yesterday might just help it get into a groove. The 49ers are quite bad in terms of turnover percentage this year and Tulane should be able to take advantage. I also believe that the Green Wave will have the best player on the court today in Rowan Brumbaugh. He dropped 35 last night and I'm expecting another big game from him. ML is an option, but whether it's ML or ATS, ride with the Green Wave. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-69 Tulane.

(#740) Wisconsin Badgers | ATS | . 

Washington looked solid in its first Big Ten Conference Tournament game against USC. The Huskies won that game in OT and have moved on to the next round. Something about these West Coast teams playing all the way here in Chicago for a longer period of time doesn't really have me too excited about the Huskies though. All season long, they've failed to win consecutive road/neutral court games and I don't see it happening here today either. 

One could argue that Wisconsin has played down to its opponents level for some of this season and that's slightly true. But, the Badgers know that it's March and have looked like real contenders coming down the stretch of the season. Not only did Wisconsin beat Purdue on the road in its final game. But, the Badgers also have wins over Michigan, Illinois, MSU, Ohio State, UCLA & Iowa this season. That's about as good as it can get. Wisconsin already beat Washington by 17 on the road. This one's much closer to Badger country. Give me Wisconsin on Thursday. 

Burns' Prediction: 89-72 Wisconsin.

(#737) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (#747) Ohio State Buckeyes | UNDER | . 

All season long, Iowa's established itself as one of the premier defending teams in the country. Ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, the Hawkeyes have allowed an average of only 65.8 PPG (which is 17th best.) They also play at the 12th slowest pace in the country via. KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. 

Ohio State doesn't play quite as slow. But, the Buckeyes are not a fast playing team by any means either. They managed to lock down the three point shot of Iowa (5/18) in the first meeting this season, and will need to do a much better job at defending the paint. Even if Iowa's able to establish itself inside again, I don't believe that there's going to be enough "chunk" points to send this one "over" the number. Give me the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 68-63 Iowa.

(#675) Providence Friars | ATS | . 

These teams met up back in early February and had a thriller that went to double-OT. I know that Butler owns the better seed & overall record coming into today's contest. But, I don't expect the Bulldogs to come out of this game with a win. They finished the season with eight losses over their past 11 games and have not shot the three ball well whatsoever. Over their past four games, they are 16/66 from deep, which is 24%. Butler already shoots poorly from deep on the season at a 32% rate. 

Providence, on the other hand, is very efficient offensively (ranked 37th in KenPom.) The Friars have an effective FG% that's inside the also top 50 in the country and I'm expecting them to have revenge on their minds after losing to Butler in this very matchup during last year's tournament. Butler lost by 22 in this arena earlier this season and shot a whopping 50% from the FT line (15/30.) I think that Providence has the stronger big-game players and they will get the job done at the Garden. 

Burns' Prediction: 91-82 Providence.

(#645) SMU Mustangs vs. (#646) Louisville Cardinals | OVER | . 

In March, the air gets tighter and the players have a lot more pressure on them. Having said that, I still believe that there are great opportunities to play on totals, both "under" and "over" bets. SMU has been a fast playing team throughout this season and although it could be without BJ Edwards again, I think that the Mustangs are going to want to play fast this evening. Don't forget that they rank #19 in offensive efficiency as well, taking very high quality shots. 

Looking at Louisville, it plays even faster than SMU. The Cardinals rank #43 in adjusted tempo, while also having one of the country's top offenses. As a matter of fact, they rank even higher in offensive efficiency, as the #14 best team in the nation in that category. Expect lots of running and tons of points in this ACC Tournament game on Wednesday. 

Burns' Prediction: 92-84 Louisville.

(#575) Charlotte Hornets | ATS | . 

Although I'm not the biggest fan of this Charlotte side, I do believe that this is a great spot for it to bounce back and start winning again. Considering how the Hornets have played when healthy this season, it's hard to imagine that big of a drop-off over the rest of the season. No, I don't expect many more winning streaks of 7, 8, 9, 10 games. But, I do think that they have a great chance at causing some damage within the Play-In Tournament as well as possibly even the NBA playoffs if they get there. Portland's still building for next season when it'll get Damian Lillard back. I know that the Trail Blazers are a much better side than they have been than in recent years. But, it's still nothing special. Over their past three home games, the Blazers have been outscored by 37 points. I've got Charlotte on Tuesday. 

Burns' Prediction: 123-109 Hornets.

(#306554) UMBC Retrievers | ATS | . 

In both meetings this season, UMASS Lowell struggled. The River Hawks were simply outclassed and didn't even come close, losing both games by 20+ points. On the season, they have had a really tough time at the free throw line and have also been very poor at paint defense. Looking at the Retrievers, they use a mixture of outside and inside attack and play fantastic team basketball. We all remember when the UMBC team of 2018 knocked off UVA in the first round as a #16 seed. Why can't this squad do the exact same thing with the right matchup. No, UMBC doesn't get the steals/blocks defensively that lots of good defenses have. But, it forces opponents to make tough shots and that's what has been the key to success all year long. At home, expect another UMBC double digit destruction against UMASS Lowell. 

Burns' Prediction: 84-59 UMBC.

(#548) Cleveland Cavaliers | ATS | . 

After losing in yesterday's early game against the Celtics, I believe that the Cavs are going to be ready to bounce back on Monday against the 76ers. This is a game that Cleveland's going to want to have as it hasn't lost consecutive home games (that were B2B days) all season long. The Cavs got Donavan Mitchell back on Sunday and are healthier than they have been in recent months. 

On the other hand, Philadelphia is not healthy right now. Everyone knows that Embiid's going to miss some games and has over the past week. He won't be in today either. Not only that, but Maxey has now been injured and will be out for at least a couple of games. I don't see the rest of the Sixers crew even coming close to touching Cleveland in this evening's ball game. Lay the number. 

Burns' Prediction: 124-103 Cavs.

(#802) East Tennessee State Buccaneers | ATS | . 

Western Carolina has definitely looked great so far in the SOCON tournament. But, I just don't see the Catamounts continuing its success on Sunday. They rank just #297 in defensive efficiency this season and own the #327 defensive effective field goal percentage. Against any team, those are stats that cannot be ignored. But, especially against ETSU. 

The Buccaneers are #35 in the country in offensive effective FG percentage and combine that with excellent all-around pressure from offense-defense. Averaging 8.8 steals per game, I just don't see East Tennessee State losing again to this team. Western Carolina won the first two meetings by a combined six points. Given the revenge factor and numbers that these teams have produced this year, expect ETSU to move on in the SOCON tournament. 

Burns' Prediction: 83-70 ETSU.

(#306527) Winthrop Eagles vs. (#306528) High Point Panthers | OVER | . 

Although its record isn't as special as High Point's, Winthrop has been absolutely fantastic over the past two months of the season. As a matter of fact, since Jan 1st, the Eagles are 15-2 in all games. That's excellent for any team in the country. A large part of that success comes from their offense. Ranking #119 in offensive efficiency via. KenPom, I expect the Eagles to have quite a bit of success in this one. Not to mention that they also play at the #57 fastest tempo in the country. 

On the other hand, the Panthers like to play just as fast at #61 in the nation. One of those two losses that Winthrop had down the stretch was against HPU in a 89-87 thriller. The Panthers own the #62 offensive efficiency in the country, ranking #30 in 2pt percentage and #50 in effective FG percentage. I expect another high scoring matchup between these two teams. 

Burns' Prediction: 92-81 High Point.

(#719) Arizona Wildcats | ATS | . 

Even on the road here on Saturday, I'm expecting the Arizona Wildcats to cruise to another blowout win this evening. Even with a loss here, Arizona would still probably end up on the #1 line. However, a win here would most definitely secure it no matter what happens inside the Big 12 Tournament. Having said that, this should be a game that Tommy Lloyd's team takes very seriously. A game like this is a spot to show the world what the Wildcats are capable of and I expect them to do just that. 

Colorado began Big 12 play with a pair of wins. It then followed that up with six consecutive losses. Since then, the Buffaloes have been fairly inconsistent. Against the best teams in the conference, they have not done too well. Losing to Houston by 40. Losing to Texas Tech by 34. Losing to Iowa State by 30. I know that all of those games were on the road. But, with one of the worst 3pt defenses in the whole country, I don't expect Colorado to have much of a chance here on Saturday evening. Hammer the Wildcats and expect a 20+ point win. 

Burns' Prediction: 93-72 Arizona.

(#702) Alabama Crimson Tide | ATS | . 

Basketball's version of the Iron Bowl takes place this weekend to conclude the regular season. Although Auburn was able to keep the first meeting quite closer earlier this year, I just don't believe that the Tigers are going to be able to stick with this top level offense for 40 minutes on the road this time around. Auburn has been rather poor throughout this season and although it's on the bubble right now, I think that it has a much better chance at winning a game or two in the SEC tournament if the matchup is correct. The Crimson Tide have won eight of their most recent nine games. Although they lost last time out, they own KenPom's 3rd most efficient offense in the nation. Alabama uses the whole bench while Auburn doesn't have any depth at all. I've got the Tide in a beatdown. 

Burns' Prediction: 98-79 Bama.

(#737) Western Carolina Catamounts / (#738) Mercer Bears | OVER | . 

Entering the tournament, Western Carolina might just be the hottest team in the SOCON. The Catamounts have won six consecutive contests and are averaging 84.0 PPG over those games. I know that this is going to be a difficult matchup for them, given that Mercer was fantastic during the regular season. But, there's no question in my mind that WCU will be able to score. 

Mercer plays at the #89 fastest tempo in the country, while owning a very poor defense. Opponents are shooting nearly 37% from the 3pt line against the Bears this season and that's something WCU will be able to capitalize on. Mercer also has a very solid offense. I expect a ton of points in this basketball game. 

Burns' Prediction: 87-80 Mercer.

(#689) UT Arlington Mavericks @ (#690) Abilene Christian Wildcats | UNDER | . 

Playing at the #310 tempo in the country, UT Arlington is one of the slowest teams out there. Not only that, but the Mavericks combine their slow pace with the #53 ranked defensive efficiency. They have the best 3pt % against in the country at just 27.5% this season. UTA also struggles offensively, with an effective FG% of 47.8% which is #318. 

Abilene Christian doesn't play quite as slow. But, the Wildcats offense is very poor as well. As a matter of fact, they are #332 in effective FG% and it's not going to get any better against a fantastic UTA defense. The first meeting saw these teams combine for 130. I expect even less on Saturday in an important final game of the regular season. 

Burns' Prediction: 63-56 UTA.

(#601) Arkansas Razorbacks | ATS | . 

After opening as a favorite, the Razorbacks are now slight underdogs. I understand that this is a road game and the final home game of the season for the Tigers. But, I simply believe that Arkansas is a much better basketball team and will have much more success in the month of March. The Razorbacks have the best offensive turnover % in the country, and shoot the ball extremely well (#16 in effective FG%.) 

Although Missouri shoots the ball quite well too, it really struggles at holding onto the ball, giving away 11.6 turnovers per game this season. I am not a big fan of the Tigers' defense either. They've been too lackadaisical at times including their most recent game against Oklahoma. In that game, the Sooners shot 70% from the field and 55% from deep! That's very poor from Missou. 

In the end, if this game goes down to the wire, I expect Darius Acuff Jr. to once again be the best player on the court. He's proven time and time again that he's one of the best players in the whole country. Give me the Razorbacks on Saturday. 

Burns' Prediction: 84-77 Arkansas.

(#873) Denver Pioneers @ (#874) North Dakota Fighting Hawks | OVER | . 

While neither of these teams play at an extremely fast pace, I'm expecting a ton of points in this basketball game on Friday evening. Both teams struggle on the defensive end. As. matter of fact, Denver ranks 357th in defensive efficiency this season while North Dakota ranks 334th. Not to mention that they are both also significantly better on the offensive end. 

When these teams have met up this year, both meetings went "over" the number which was similar to today's. While that's not always something that I like to point out, as there's always going to be change. However, considering that UND shot 3/21 from deep in the last game and was still able to score 79 on Denver's defense means that it should cause much more damage this evening. I've got the "over." 

Burns' Prediction: 88-86 Denver.

(#508) Phoenix Suns | ATS | . 

Both of these two teams played on Thursday. Phoenix remains at home though. Even after the loss, I believe that the Suns will come out ready to play on Friday evening. They are on the bubble of being a 1-6 playoff team at the moment and these twins are crucial if the Suns want to avoid the play-in tournament. Phoenix is already 3-0 against NOP this season and although I don't love that, that's the case, (given that it's hard to clean sweep a team 4-0) it's been so long between games that these recent meetings don't mean too much. 

The Pelicans won last night's game and I'm not expecting too many more wins for a team that's got 44 losses in 64 games this season. The Pels are definitely not "eliminated" from the playoffs yet. But, it's highly unlikely given its results so far this year. I expect more rest from the starters as the season gets older. Phoenix has much more to play for and I like the situation having seen it lose against Chicago on Thursday. Lay the points at home. 

Burns' Prediction: 113-101 Suns.

(#854) Bradley Braves | ATS | . 

Although Valparaiso had a fantastic comeback win to reach this point in the MVC. tournament, I believe that it's time has come to get sent home packing. The Beacons did finish the year quite well. However, they are 350th in 2pt FG % this season and that could be a real issue if the three ball isn't falling. 

I know that the Braves aren't great against 3pt shots, which is a bit worrisome. But, they have a fantastic player in Jaquan Johnson who was on this team last year and is ready to explode as the superstar of this tournament. Remember that Bradley made the final in this tournament a year ago. Bradley is much better offensively and I expect it to get the job done here this evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 77-66 Bradley.

(#871) Nebraska Omaha Mavericks | ATS | . 

If you've followed me this season, you will have seen that I think that this Omaha team is much better than its record suggests. Well, I'm actually 5-0 on Omaha this season, while successfully playing my SUMMIT GOY and DOY on it this season. The Mavericks have had an off-year, given the fact that they were in the NCAA Tournament a year ago and have fallen in the standings. But, there's no question that they shouldn't be in the conversation when picking a winner in this conference tournament. They are experienced and definitely have the capabilities of doing so. South Dakota is not great and relies on shooting a ton of FT's. Omaha doesn't foul a whole lot. Give me the Mavs to move on. 

Burns' Prediction: 85-77 Omaha.

(#852) Murray State Racers | ATS | . 

I'm not sold on this Illinois Chicago team one bit. I know that the Flames had an eight game winning streak during conference play in this tournament. I know that it's difficult to beat a team three times (which Murray State will have to do.) But, the Flames are not great offensively, percentage wise, and that's going to be a problem on Friday afternoon. 

Murray State, on the other hand, is great offensively and will push the pace. The Racers haven't been at their best to end the season, which is most likely the reason for being only slight favorites. But, they have phenomenal athletes, who I think can compete among the best of the best in the country (if they were to make the tournament) and this might just be the coming out party for French freshman Roman Domon. They've had all week long to prepare for this game and I expect Murray State to explode to a big time victory here on Friday. 

Burns' Prediction: 88-75 Murray State.

(#306605) Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | ATS | . 

Upset alert. I know that FGCU had lost a pair of games coming into this tournament. But, the Eagles brushed those games off and really stepped it up on Wednesday in their domination of North Alabama. That's right, the Eagles managed to win by double digits while shooting 4/21 from three point land. I expect a much better shooting performance from the guys who shoot the ball quite effectively from all three levels. 

Lipscomb might have had the better regular season. But, this is a tough spot for the Bisons who haven't played in more than a week. I know that rest could very well help some teams. But, this is the longest stretch without a game since January and the Bisons lost that game on the same amount of days rest vs. Jacksonville. These kids want to play and having so much time off could come back to cost them. I'll grab the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 76-70 FGCU.

(#781) Kennesaw State Owls | ATS | . 

I believe that this should be a complete mismatch. Kennesaw State brings in the league's fourth best record with a pair of games remaining. It can still catch the team in front of it or drop in the conference standings, meaning this is an important matchup. The Owls, who are heating up at the perfect time, are among the tallest in the country, dominating the glass.

On the other hand, UTEP is on the smaller side and doesn't really have much to match up with Kennesaw in this one. I know that the Miners have home court this evening. But, as a team that shoots only 46.4% from within the arc (2pt shots,) I just don't see how it keeps this one close. That's 342th in the country. Let's also note that UTEP's lost four consecutive games, including B2B by 20+ points. Lay the few points in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 80-70 Kennesaw.

(#808) Arkansas State Red Wolves | ATS | . 

Having played on Wednesday and knocking off Old Dominion, the gauntlet continues for Georgia Southern. This is perhaps the roughest conference tournament to get through as a lower seed and considering that Arkansas State actually owned the same conference record as the team that finished 2nd in the conference is mind-boggling. GASO hasn't been great this season, with the #312 defensive efficiency in the country via. KenPom's rankings. 

Arkansas, on the other hand, is much stronger defensively, and has the #11 offensive rebounding percentage, leading to many second chance opportunities. Sometimes the pace of GASO overwhelms opponents. However, the Red Wolves play even faster than the Eagles and simply play at much higher quality. I am Expect a double digit win from AKST. 

I've been pretty successful when playing on games that included the GASO University. As a matter of fact, in both CBB & CFB, I am 7-0 combined in Georgia Southern games, including a win on the Red Wolves in this very matchup earlier this year as my SBC GOY. This time, expect them to dominate even more. 

Burns' Prediction: 93-77 Ark St.

(#559) Atlanta Hawks @ (#560) Milwaukee Bucks | OVER | . 

This should be a high scoring game. Through 62 games this season, Atlanta has averaged the fourth most offensive possessions of any team in the NBA. The Hawks improve that ranking to #2 over the past three games. They want to play fast and that's what's gotten them to where they are at this very moment. 

With Giannis back for the Bucks, his offensive presence is going to help contribute to a ton of the Milwaukee buckets. Yes, he might still be on a minute restriction. But, I'm expecting Milwaukee to have much better results on Wednesday than over its past three games. This is a game that the Bucks should be able to open up the scoring much more than it has. Hammer the "over." 

Burns' Prediction: 123-116 Bucks.

(#743) Northern Kentucky Norse @ (#744) Oakland Golden Grizzlies | OVER | . 

Playing at the 59th fastest pace in the country, via, KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings, Northern Kentucky is going to want to push the pace in this basketball game. The Norse love getting the ball into the paint and creating easy buckets down low, leading to their 82.5 PPG this season. Having had all week to prepare, and having scored 173 points over its past couple of games, I expect NKU's offense to be ready again. 

Oakland too relies on its offense to carry the load. Also averaging 82.5 PPG, the Golden Grizzlies play at an even faster tempo at 55th in the country. They also like to get the ball into the paint and create opportunities down low. That leads to quite a few foul shots per game and they do a great job from the charity stripe. With both meetings during the regular season having gone "under" this sets up perfectly for a high scoring game on Wednesday. 

Burns' Prediction: 91-82 Oakland.

(#306566) Long Island University Sharks | ATS | . 

Having the luxury of playing at home in the Northeast Tournament is going to be massive for Long Island. As the #1 seed, the Sharks basically control their own destiny. They went 11-1 on this court during the regular season and that included two blowout wins against this very Chicago State team. 

I know that it's rather difficult to defeat a team three times in a season. But, considering that the Cougars are the 348th ranked team in KenPom's efficiency rankings (among the worst,) I just don't see it having a chance in this basketball game. They are terrible at defending, allowing the highest percentage of any team on 2pt jump shots, at 60.2% this year. Considering all of the numbers, this game should be ugly from the opening tip off. 

Burns' Prediction: 84-62 LIU.

(#549) Phoenix Suns @ (#550) Sacramento Kings | UNDER | . 

Coming off of a big win against the Lakers, Phoenix remains without Dillon Brooks for this evenings contest. The Suns are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this year and that makes them be able to score less and win at a higher level than one would expect. They are eight games above .500, while scoring only 112.1 PPG, which is T-25 in the association. 

Sacramento is "in shambles" right now. With a couple of season ending injuries, the Kings are likely just playing for a great draft pick at this moment. Scoring even less than the Suns, this ought to be a low scoring contest. I see PHX holding SAC to around the 100 mark, while not putting up a whole lot itself. Hammer the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 109-97 Suns.

(#678) UCLA Bruins | ATS | . 

After beating USC comfortably over the weekend, the Cornhuskers had to stay on the West Coast for a few days to take on UCLA this evening. I know that it doesn't seem like much. But, for college students, that's a solid amount of time to be away from home and stay focused. These Big 10 teams still aren't completely used to having to go out West for a road trip mid-season like this. USC is a team in shambles - its loss didn't surprise me. But, Nebraska will have to be even better on Tuesday to knock off UCLA. 

Talking about the Bruins, they are in must-win mode as the regular season's end fast approaches. Having just lost against Minnesota, UCLA has to wake up over these final couple of games. As of February 27th, before the recent loss, Joe Lunardi had UCLA as a nine seed. That's cutting it very close. A statement win here at home could be just what the Bruins need in order to firmly solidify themselves as a tournament team. I expect the Bruins fans to be out and loud on Tuesday. Expect a mini-upset. 

Burns' Prediction: 76-67 UCLA.

(#306538) Jackson State Tigers | ML | . 

Both of these teams have been pretty bad this season and there's no way around it really. Arkansas Pine Bluff has 12 wins while Jackson State has nine. However, this is a home game for the Tigers, who are 5-3 when playing at home this year. Jackson State seeks revenge on Tuesday after losing the first meeting by 21 points. Prior to that, the Tigers had won the past 16 meetings since 2018. Ark Pine Bluff might have the slightly stronger numbers statistically this year. But, having just lost twice in a three game home stand, I don't expect the Golden Lions to fare well on the road on Tuesday. Give me JKST.

Burns' Prediction: 83-75 Jackson St.

(#607) Towson Tigers @ (#608) Stony Brook Seawolves | UNDER | . 

I expect this to be a very low scoring contest on Tuesday. Towson brings in the 97th most efficient defense via. KenPom's rankings. Not only that, but the Tigers are significantly worse on the offensive side of the ball, while playing at the 345th fastest tempo. In February, the Tigers played three road games and averaged 60.67 PPG over those three games. 

Stony Brook doesn't play nearly as slow, but still ranks among the slower playing teams in College Basketball. The Seawolves have been struggling, putting up just 127 points over their most recent two contests. Remember, these teams combined for only 126 a few weeks ago. Neither team fouls a lot. Play the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 63-57 Stony Brook.

(#306529) Bryant Bulldogs | ATS | . 

Although this has not been a great season for Bryant, the Bulldogs can definitely still finish the regular season on a positive note. Although there were a ton of new faces this season, the Bulldogs went 14-2 last season in conference play. This is a group that's been great over the past few seasons and an organization that thrives in this month. I wouldn't be shocked if they grabbed an early upset & made a bit of a run in the AE Tournament coming up. 

New Hampshire's been even worse than Bryant in conference play this year, sitting in 8th. The Wildcats have lost eight consecutive games, dating back to January 31st which actually started w/ a loss against Bryant. They simply just don't have it this year and will most likely be sent home in a couple of days time. Bryant's been really bad, I know. But, the Bulldogs have a significant edge in FT shooting. That's going to help propel them to an upset victory on Tuesday. 

Burns' Prediction: 70-60 Bryant.

(#306519) Lamar Cardinals | ATS | . 

Playing on a team that's lost seven consecutive games is never easy. But, this is a perfect spot to do so. Lamar is not as bad as it's been playing and it's lost five of these seven games by single digits. The Cardinals have already beaten HCU this season, which should give some confidence to the players, who normally would be down in a situation like this. Lamar is a fantastic shot blocking team, which is something that could be a difference maker given how small of a team that the Huskies are. Looking more at Houston Christian, it's not a good defensive team, especially inside the paint. The Huskies will struggle to get open looks and will be slightly demoralized after being crushed at home against SFA last time out. Despite a decent record here at home, the home crowd is close a non-factor here at HCU. I expect the better team coming away with the big win to close out the regular season and that's Lamar. Hammer the Cardinals. 

Burns' Prediction: 71-59 Lamar.