(#701) Connecticut @ (#702) Michigan | OVER | . 

While UCONN surprised me slightly, by shooting at much higher percentages in the Final Four matchup against Illinois, I'm not going to count the Huskies out of this game like a lot of people are. I believe that if they can shoot lights out and have success defending the paint again, it's going to be right in this game. That being said, UCONN's going to have to score lots of points to have a chance and I think that it's going to help the "over's" cause very much so. 

Michigan is the first team in College Basketball history to score 90+ points in five NCAA Tournament games. In the Wolverines' Final Four game, they looked pretty much unbeatable, making so many tough shots and not allowing Arizona to get settled in early. MICH will dictate the pace of this game and they play at the #22 fastest tempo in the country. Give me the "over" in the National Title Game. 

Burns' Prediction: 84-70 Michigan.

(#649) Illinois Fighting Illini | ATS | . 

Illinois has proven the doubters wrong throughout this March Madness Tournament with some of the most impressive performances so far. Beating up on Houston, in Houston was one thing. But, being able to win all four of its games by double digits and with ease for the most part has been fantastic to watch. I'm a big fan of this roster, filled with overseas talent as well as one of best freshman in the nation in Keaton Wagler. 

Throughout the year, the Fighting Illini have been one of the best teams in the country. It was just a matter of what Illinois we were going to get. Prior to the NCAA Tourney, it had lost five of its final nine games (including Big Ten Tournament.) The Illini have a massive team that's built on shooting threes and attacking the rim. I like that type of style for this matchup against UCONN. 

Connecticut shocked the world by beating Duke in the Elite Eight with one of the most incredible shots in March Madness history. Braylon Mullins didn't hit a single three prior to that logo heave and although it was ridiculous to watch, Connecticut did struggle in that game in the first half. The Huskies showed resilience and poise to comeback from down 19pts. But, they didn't shoot well in that game from deep and forcing the ball inside is not going to work as well against one of the best teams in the country at not fouling. 

In the end, I believe that it's going to come down to guard play and execution. Keaton Wagler, who I mentioned early, has a chance to keep improving his draft stock and perhaps be drafted inside the top five of this upcoming NBA draft. I expect a huge game from him and I've got the Fighting Illini playing in the CBB Men's Basketball Championship Game on Monday. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-66 Illinois.

(#629) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (#630) Illinois Fighting Illini | UNDER | . 

These teams met earlier in the season, as Big Ten members, and we saw a closely contested ball game. I know that the first meeting had plenty of offense, with Illinois taking the game 75-69. However, this time around, I'm expecting a much lower scoring affair. Iowa's been one of the slowest playing teams all season long and remains the #361 ranked team in KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. Adding to that, the Hawkeyes average the 3rd slowest time per offensive possession. 

Illinois showcased just how dominant its defense can be in the Sweet Sixteen win against Houston. That was an out-of-this-world performance defensively and I wouldn't be shocked if the Fighting Illini are able to do similar things here today. With one of the best offenses in the country too, the total is being pushed up higher slightly. But, the Illini also play on the slower end, with the #286 tempo nationally. With so much on the line, and a chance to get to the final four, I expect both teams to have some jitters offensively, especially early in this one. I believe that we're going to see a defensive war. Give me the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 67-61 Illinois.

(#628) Iowa State Cyclones | ATS | . 

Tennessee managed to survive against Virginia in its Rof32 game on Sunday. Although they did enough to win in the end, I did not like what I saw from the Volunteers down the stretch of that game, with bad shot selection and near turnovers that could've costed them the game. If those don' get cleaned up over the next few days, it's going to be a long Sweet Sixteen matchup or Tennessee against Iowa State. 

If you joined me for my 2nd Round GOY on Iowa State, congrats. I love this Cyclone team this season and they proved just how good they were on Sunday against Kentucky, even without their best overall player in Joshua Jefferson. Now, I'm hoping that Jefferson is back for this contest. But, I'm going to assume the worst here and I definitely still like them to win this game comfortably without the big man. 

Compared to Kentucky, Tennessee is even worse at keeping a hold of the ball offensively. The Volunteers have turned the ball over 26 times over their first couple of games and it hasn't come back to hurt them. It sure will on Friday against ISU if those numbers keep up. Iowa State forced 20 turnovers on Sunday against UK and I simply just think it's a case of the SEC not having enough great full pressure defensive teams. In my opinion, the only team that comes close to ISU defensive wise in the SEC is Florida. Although the Gators just got knocked out by Iowa, they still had a phenomenal year and beat this Tennessee team by 24 during the season.

The Cyclones didn't shoot the three ball well in the first half against Kentucky and were still well below the season average by the end of the game. I don't expect them to struggle like that nearly as much in this one. I like the Cyclones to win big once again and roll to the Elite Eight against the winner of Michigan/Alabama. 

Burns' Prediction: 73-62 ISU.

(#623) Michigan State Spartans | ATS | . 

Although I expect this to be a very close encounter, I do believe that there's some value on taking the underdog in this contest. #3 seeded Michigan State enters the Sweet Sixteen ranked one spot ahead of UCONN in KenPom's efficiency rankings and I believe it's for good reasoning. The Spartans have a fantastic offense with great shooting inside & out. They also do a great job from the FT line. 

Connecticut, on the other hand, struggles from the line at times and isn't too impressive from beyond the arc either. The Huskies do have an elite defense, which causes problems for a lot of teams. But, MSU can match that level of intensity on the other side of the ball. Player for player in this matchup, I like the Spartans. I'll grab the points in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 69-64 MSU.

(#614) Houston Cougars | ATS | . 

Although I'm a massive fan of both of these teams, I do believe that this game being in Houston should help the Cougars drastically. Illinois' been one of the best offensive minded teams all season long. I know that the Fighting Illini probably are stronger on that side of the ball. However, I don't know that it will be enough in this one. 

To cancel out the offensive prowess of Illinois, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars are always ready for the battle defensively. This is a team that made the final last year and are aiming for gold, nothing less. I also think that Flemings will show up when the lights are bright. Considering practically having home-court in a Sweet Sixteen game, I'll ride with "MY" preseason #1 team. 

Burns' Prediction: 72-63 Houston.

(#607) Illinois State Redbirds | ATS | . 

Dayton might've had the stronger season and played tougher opponents. But, I believe that this spot sets up well for the road team that's got plenty more in the tank after beating Wake Forest last time out. While Dayton likes to get quite a bit of its points from the free throw line, the Redbirds do a fantastic job at limiting opposing teams chances from the charity stripe. 

The Flyers aren't so good at defending the 3pt line and that's something that Illinois State should be able to take advantage of in my eyes. I believe that this spread is too big and I'm even going to call for the outright win. However, take the points with Illinois State. 

Burns' Prediction: 73-68 Illinois State.

(#809) Texas Tech Red Raiders @ (#810) Alabama Crimson Tide | OVER | . 

I know that there's definitely something to be said for tournament games being much more physical & defensive minded. However, I'm expecting absolute fireworks in this contest on Sunday in the Rof32. Texas Tech might be on the slower side for "tempo." But, the Red Raiders sure love to shoot the three ball and that's not going to stop here. Averaging 80.4 PPG, they are going up against one of the worst defenses in power-four ball here. 

We all know that Alabama likes to run. The Crimson Tide finally got going in the second half of their first round contest vs. Hofstra and still ended up with 90 points even after 37 in the first half. Bama averages 91.7 PPG which is the #1 mark in the whole country. Even without Holloway, they love to run in transition, attack the paint as well as get open looks from deep. 

I simply don't believe that there's going to be much defense in this game. TTU's offense looked fantastic on Friday and Alabama's not going to be able to slow the Red Raiders down. I do expect the Tide to get their share of points as well. This one could also come down to the wire with fouls late. Give me the "over."

Burns' Prediction: 92-83 Texas Tech.

(#820) Iowa State Cyclones | ATS | . 

Kentucky barely survived Santa Clara, forcing OT with an absolute prayer at the buzzer and outlasting the Broncos with their length. This time around, I don't expect the Wildcats to be able to have that much success inside the paint. In the second half/OT, Kentucky dominated the 2pt game. That's going to be very difficult here. 

Iowa State did see star forward Joshua Jefferson come down with an ankle sprain 3 minutes into the dominant showing against Tennessee State. However, x-ray's came back negative and the big man is labelled as day-to-day. Even if Jefferson isn't able to go on Sunday, ISU showed just how good it is in all aspects of the game. As I mentioned in my free pick on ISU on Friday, the Cyclones are "a legitimate title contender in my eyes." 

During the season, Kentucky got into a lot of trouble against the best teams in the country. Obviously, the Wildcats are going to get some wins against quality opponents as well playing in the SEC. But, they finished the year 2-5 down the stretch of the regular season and suffered losses against Louisville, MSU, UNC & Gonzaga in the non-conference schedule. It's best non-con win was against St. John's when the Red Storm shot horribly at a 34.6% rate from the field & 26.3% from deep. The next best win was against a non-tournament team in Indiana. 

Iowa State, on the other hand, beat St. John's, Purdue, Iowa, Syracuse & Creighton out of conference. As a matter of fact, the Cyclones haven't lost a single game against an opponent from another conference all season. They are so consistent and have been phenomenal down the stretch of the season. That being said, I'll lay the points with ISU in the Rof32 with or without Jefferson. 

Burns' Prediction: 79-65 Iowa State.

(#785) High Point Panthers | ATS | . 

After seeing these two teams play on Thursday and get a taste of the madness, I believe that there's plenty of value on this High Point team. The Panthers upset Wisconsin in the opening round and shot just 16-34 (47%) from 2pt range. That's significant because they average 56.8% on the season (15th in the country) and Arkansas allows 53.7% inside this season which is in the bottom half of the nation. 

Talking about Arkansas, the Razorbacks have played in close games all season. I do absolutely love Darius Acuff Jr. I truly think he could turn out to the be the best player in this upcoming draft. But, the Razorbacks also do struggle against teams that can match their pace. With losses to Alabama, Georgia and Florida. 

High Point is on the nation's longest winning streak currently at 15-games. Turnovers could be the downfall of Arkansas who statistically keeps the ball very well, but I've watched it be very lackadaisical at times with the ball. While I'm not going to call for the outright win, it's most definitely possible in a potential look-ahead spot to the next matchup of Arizona for some of these Arkansas members. 

Burns' Prediction: 82-79 Arkansas.

(#774) Michigan State Spartans | ATS | . 

While it was definitely a "chalky" first round with no upsets on Friday, I do believe that it's going to stay that way, at least for this contest on Saturday. I barely snuck a back-door winner on South Florida against Louisville on Thursday and I'm willing to roll the dice against the Cardinals once again on Saturday. I mean, they were without their star PG. But, to allow a "mid-major" team that shot 5-33 (15%) from three to lose by only four against you in the opening game? That's not impressive to me. Michigan State's going to cause a lot of problems for Louisville on Saturday, especially with Mikel Brown Jr out once again. The Spartans are dominant on the glass and own a much stronger perimeter defense than we saw in the USF game. The Spartans also are significantly stronger offensively, shooting at much better percentages. I'm not a fan with the way Pat Kelsey manages this team. Louisville has lost to the "good" teams all season. I would have liked to play MSU early at -2.5, but I'll still lay the points here. 

Burns' Prediction: 80-69 MSU.

(#767) California Baptist Lancers vs. (#768) Kansas Jayhawks | UNDER | . 

This is a very intriguing matchup in my opinion. People love upsets in March and this could definitely be a game where the lower seed come come away with the win in the final moments. But, I'm taking a different approach as I find value in the total of this contest. 

California Baptist is phenomenal defensively. With the 50th ranked defensive efficiency in the country, the Lancers also hold teams to very low percentages. Their effective FG% against ranks 15th nationally while they hold opponents to less than 30% from 3pt land which gives them the 6th best in the nation. More importantly, they know how to keep teams out of the paint as the average distance to the hoop on 2s that they allow is 6.4 feet away from the basket which ranks 75th. 

Although Kansas plays faster between these two teams, the Jayhawks also are much better on the defensive end. The Jayhawks rank 10th in defensive efficiency and had a horrific offensive showing in their most recent game, scoring only 47 points against another strong defensive group in Houston. If Kansas can't knock down it's shot early, it could be on upset watch. But, even if the Jayhawks are able to score some early baskets, I expect them to slow the game down considering how big this game is. 

One thing to note too is that Kansas ranks in the bottom half of the country (211th) in 2pt field goal percentage at 51.1%. With how good the Lancers are at defending the three ball, this is a great matchup for the defenses. This line is too high and I wouldn't be shocked if it comes down a tad before tip. 

Burns' Prediction: 65-62 Kansas.

(#747) Iowa Hawkeyes | ATS | . 

I do respect Clemson and I had really enjoyed watching its first half of the season. However, times have changed and I believe that the Tigers are going to be in for a very difficult contest on Friday evening. They just lost their big man, in Carter Welling, for the season. He's one of two double digit scorers for the Tigers and has definitely been their most efficient player all season long. 

Up against Iowa, a team that punishes weak interior play, I believe that this is a great first matchup for the Hawkeyes. If you've never heard of him, Head coach Ben McCollum is like the CBB version of Curt Cignetti (Indiana Hoosiers Football HC.) Over 16 seasons coaching Northwest Missouri State, he owned a 394–91 record. At Drake last year, he went 31-4. This guy doesn't lose. Considering he brought some guys over from his Drake team a year ago including Bennett Stirtz, I expect the senior to dominate this game and survive at least one more game. Lay the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 66-57 Iowa.

(#740) Gonzaga Bulldogs | ATS | . 

As much as I like Kennesaw State as a team that plays fast and attack the offensive glass, I do not think that this is a great matchup for the Owls. Kennesaw is on the more ineffective side of the spectrum when it comes to shooting the ball, ranking 204th in effective FG%. The Owls also foul a ton and like to get fouled. If you saw my recent analysis on them, you'd know that they rank T-2nd in FT attempts per game, and also rank T-4th worst in FT allowed per game. Gonzaga will absolutely feed off of that. The Bulldogs shoot a ton of two's with more than 60% of their buckets coming on 2pt field goals. That should lead to plenty of opportunities in the paint and at the free throw line. On defense, they do an excellent job at keeping teams out of the paint, making teams shoot the three ball, while also defending the perimeter at an elite level. Kennesaw struggles at time to hit the three. Let's also note that the Owls' go-to guy from the beginning of the season, Simeon Cottle, has been suspended for the past couple of months. I think not having him is going to be the nail in the coffin. Expect the Zags to win by on Thursday evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 93-65 Zags.

(#715) Saint Louis Billikens | ATS | . 

Two of the fastest playing teams in the country get to face off against each other in the opening round of the dance. Even though Saint Louis lost by a practical buzzer beater in its conference tournament, it's one of the best mid-major programs that I've seen in a very long time. Ranked as a #9 seed, I believe that the Billikens have the ability to keep games close and have a chance against any team in the country. 

SLU star, Robbie Avila had the chance to play anywhere in the country and decided to come back and try and win something with Saint Louis. Him and head coach Josh Schertz have built something here this season and I expect it to continue past the round of 64. 

Let's breakdown these two teams. Georgia is much better offensively than defensively, and obviously loves to run (16th in tempo.) The Bulldogs don't shoot the three at an extremely high rate though (34.1% - 170th) despite the good offensive numbers. Defensively, their perimeter defense has hurt them at times, especially against Ole Miss when the "dawgs" allowed the Rebels to shoot 45% from distance. 

That's something to keep an eye on because the Billikens shoot the ball at the second highest rate in College Basketball - 40.5% on the season. Saint Louis' overall numbers might not be as strong offensively as UGA's. But, the Billikens are 15th nationally in effective FG percentage and play a very analytical brand of basketball, averaging the closest distance to the hoop in the country on 2pt attempts this year. 

I do like SLU's defense a whole lot better than I like Georgia's. Along with their amazing analytics with shooting the ball, the Billikens combine that with the 2nd ranked effective FG% against, as well as the 8th best 3pt percentage allowed and the 5th best 2pt percentage allowed in the country. No, Saint Louis isn't going to turn you over like a lot of strong defensive teams do. But, it will force you to take extremely tough shots and make them. 

On the season, Georgia had been a team that gets a ton of blocked shots. But, lately, that hasn't really been the case with just 5 blocks over the past two games. Even if Georgia wins this game, it would likely be on a game winning shot like Dayton had in the A10 tournament. I don't see the Billikens losing this game though and I've got them into the Round of 32 against Michigan (more than likely.) 

Burns' Prediction: 91-84 SLU.

(#709) South Florida Bulls | ATS | . 

I really like South Florida in this year's tournament. The Bulls are currently on the nation's 3rd longest winning streak at 11 games and looked very strong within the American Tournament. I know that the formerly known conference of "AAC" wasn't so strong this season, with Memphis struggling. However, the Bulls have a big win against Utah St by double digits this season and also blew out another tournament team in Kennesaw State earlier this season. USF ranks 7th in the nation in offensive rebounding % and also plays a very analytical based brand of basketball, averaging the 3rd closest 2pt percentage in the country. Louisville has some question marks coming into the NCAA Tournament. Is Mikel Brown Jr playing? He missed the ACC Tournament and even though he's expected to play in this contest, I do believe that he's not going to be at 100%. Louisville shoots a ton of threes and hits them at a decent rate. However, USF's perimeter defense has been excellent lately, allowing just 31/122 on 3pt attempts over its past five games. That's an average of just 25% and that includes two tournament games! Give me the Bulls in an upset. 

Burns' Prediction: 81-75 USF.

(#648) South Florida Bulls | ATS | . 

Wichita State was able to knock off Tulsa in the semis. Although it was a strong performance, I am not sold on the Shockers quite yet. That win sets up a battle against the squad that's been the #1 team in the conference throughout the season. Wichita plays significantly slower than USF and also hasn't shot the ball all that well this season. As a matter of fact, the Shockers are 244th in effective FG% and just 303rd in FT percentage on the year. 

South Florida had a tight game against Charlotte for about 25 minutes. Then the Bulls exploded and ended up winning the game by 22 points. All season long, they've shown the ability to use their analytical approach to roll through the conference, and that's why they are on a 10 game win streak at the moment. USF already beat Wichita State by eight on the road. Give me the Bulls at this neutral site. 

Burns' Prediction: 83-70 USF.

(#306546) Southern Jaguars | ATS | . 

Both teams like to play very fast. But, I believe that the Southern Jaguars are the much more efficient program. It's been a fantastic stretch of winning for Prairie View A&M who's won four games in four days. However, outside of their #1 scoring option in Dontae Horne, the Panthers are one of the least efficient offensive teams in the country. They rank 321st in effective FG %. Also, Prairie View A&M was +4000 to win this tournament entering it, while Southern was +270. Something seems off with this line. The Jags barely hung on to win for me yesterday (SWAC TOURNEY GOY.) But, they survived a game where they shot horribly from deep and from the line. I expect much better from Southern today. Lay the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 83-72 Southern.

(#622) Arizona Wildcats | ATS | . 

These two teams might just be my favorite two teams going into March Madness. Coming into the season, Houston had been my prediction to win the whole thing. As the campaign has moved along, I have watched countless amounts of College Basketball and I firmly believe that both of these teams have a real shot at cutting down the nets in April. Having said that, Arizona might just have a slight edge at the moment. 

When these two teams met back in February, Arizona went into Houston and was able to control the second half. I know that it was during a slump of the Cougars and they most definitely seem out of that now. But, at the same time, that was a road game and this one will be held at a neutral court. The Wildcats rank top seven in efficiency in both offense & defense entering this evening's contest. 

One thing that has stood out to me over the past couple of months has something to do with Houston's offense (which ranks outside of the top 15 via. efficiency.) The Cougars are a fantastic team, don't get me wrong. But, at times, the offense can be very stationary and go side-to-side way too much. In order to succeed at this time of the year, you need to be able to go side-to-side as well as downhill. I see Flemings as the only option to go 1-on-1 and find success for Houston in this one. 

Another thing that I saw in the matchup in February was the amount of times that Arizona managed to pick on Flemings on the defensive side. The freshman is phenomenal offensively. But, he's small and can be a liability on the defensive side with the size of the Wildcats. Dell'Orso is coming off a great shooting night and I expect Koa Peat to do a lot more damage than just four points here this evening. I think that Arizona's depth will be too much for Houston to handle on Saturday. 

Burns' Prediction: 72-63 Zona.

(#616) Arkansas Razorbacks | ATS | .

Last night, I had a big play on Alabama, which lost outright against Ole Miss. Bad pick. No excuses. However, I'm still not sold on this Rebels team. I mean, this is a team that dropped 13 of their last 14 games of the regular season and have somehow managed to win not one, not two, but three games on consecutive nights. It's impressive. But, runs always come to an end and that's going to happen on Saturday. 

Arkansas managed to hang on against Oklahoma, who's firmly on the bubble to reach the big dance. The Razorbacks are a bit like Alabama, as they like to play fast and have an elite offense. But, they provide a much better defensive game and I believe it's going to be too much for Mississippi to handle, especially playing their fourth game in four days. Expect the much more rested side to dominate this basketball game. 

Burns' Prediction: 88-71 Arkansas.

(#613) Vanderbilt Commodores vs. (#614) Florida Gators | OVER | . 

I know that conference tournament games and other games played in the month of March are always slightly more intense, with higher quality defense. However, I'm expecting a very offensive showdown on Saturday in this SEC semi-final matchup. Vanderbilt ranks 77th in the country in tempo, combining that with the 8th ranked offensive efficiency. The Commodores managed to put up 75 in their QF game against a very slow Tennessee team. I expect much more today. 

Florida, on the other hand, plays at the 24th fastest pace in the nation. I know that the Gators are considered by some to have the best defense in the country. But, Vanderbilt is actually the team that has put up the most points in a game vs. Florida all season at 94. The Gators also have an elite offense that did a ton of damage down the stretch. The first meeting was very high scoring and I'm expecting this one to be as well. Give me the "over." 

Burns' Prediction: 90-83 Florida.

(#856) San Diego State Aztecs | ML | . 

Well, well, well. This might just be the biggest game of the whole season in terms of meaningfulness. Both of these teams are on the outside of the NCAA Tournament, looking in at the moment and the oddsmakers are expecting an extremely close encounter in this, I suppose you could call it an "elimination game." Even a win in this game might not be enough. But, definitely. The loser will go home without anything meaningful to play for during the rest of March. 

New Mexico lost its best player in the offseason in Donavan Dent, who transferred to UCLA. I know that the Lobos have been great this season, nothing against them. But, I have not been too impressed with their defense at times, especially inside the paint. The Lobos bring in a very in-experienced squad, ranking 313th in the country in D-1 experience (0.87 yrs average.)

On the other hand, this is a very experienced Aztecs group that ranks 72nd in D-1 experience (1.90 yrs average.) San Diego State almost always provides excellent defensive play and even in an "off-night" shooting the ball from deep, the Aztecs are able to find a way to win games just like against CSU last night. SDSU also uses a ton of guys and doesn't rely on just one or two options like UNM does at times. I like the Aztecs to find a way to move on, once again. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-68 SDSU.

(#306523) Southern Jaguars | ATS | . 

During the regular season, these two teams owned the same conference record. Florida A&M got the higher seed on a tiebreaker and now, the two will square off for a chance at the SWAC final. The Rattlers did finish the year quite well, winning four straight games (five now.) I'm not sold on their offense though. Ranking 341st in offensive efficiency and turning the ball over at a bottom 10 rate in the country, I don't see them doing too well in a big time game like this. 

Southern, on the other hand, seeks revenge after dropping both games against Florida A&M during the regular season. The Jaguars are significantly better offensively and have been shooting the ball lights out over the past couple of games. As a matter of fact, they've gone over 60% from 3pt land in consecutive games now! In the last game, Southern had a massive meltdown out of halftime. I don't expect that to happen on Friday. Give me the Jags to move on. 

Burns' Prediction: 81-71 Southern.

(#826) Alabama Crimson Tide | ATS | . 

After finishing the season in style, Alabama's been preparing for postseason ball over the past week. Now, I know that the Tide were probably expecting to play UGA in this matchup. And.. for a lot of teams, this could probably be a letdown spot given how bad Ole Miss was during the regular season. But, I don't expect this Bama team to struggle on Friday. This is a team that went into Mississippi and dominated the Rebels by 19 points during the regular season. Alabama plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, combining that with the 3rd best offensive efficiency nationally. Once they find their groove this evening, look out. 

For Ole Miss, it's had an epic couple of days to even win two games in the SEC Tournament so far. I mean, this is a team that lost 13 of their last 14 games to finish the regular season. The coaches and players of Mississippi are probably saying that the job isn't finished yet. But, in reality, this has already been a successful tournament, as the Rebels can fully start to prepare for next season. Given the differences in pace, I don't believe that the Rebels are going to be able to hang with the Tide for 40 minutes. Even if this game remains closer at halftime, expect a second half rout and another dominant Alabama win as a result. 

Burns' Prediction: 99-74 Bama.

(#815) Kennesaw State vs. (#816) Sam Houston State Bearkats | OVER | . 

I won with the "over" in Kennesaw State in yesterday's game against Western Kentucky (SBC Tourney TOY) and I'm back on another Owls' "over" here this afternoon. If you didn't read the analysis in the selection yesterday, Kennesaw ranks as the 19th fastest playing team in the country, via. KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. The Owls also love to crash the offensive glass and shoot free throws at the 5th highest rate in College Hoops. Not only that, but they allow the second most free throws per game as well. 

Looking at Sam Houston State, it's another program that enjoys pushing the pace and playing up-and-down instead side-to-side. Meaning, they like to attack the hoop or draw up plays, instead of passing back and forth across the top of the key until they find a shot. SHSU also ranks in the top 40 in tempo. Something different about the Bearkats is that they shoot the three ball extremely well, at 37.9%. Expect another high scoring CUSA affair. 

Burns' Prediction: 91-84 SHSU.

(#771) Kennesaw State Owls vs. (#772) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | OVER | . 

I expect a very high scoring game in this CUSA quarterfinal matchup on Thursday. Throughout this season, Kennesaw State has shown the ability to score fast and create havoc on the offensive boards. The Owls rank 19th in the country in adjusted tempo, while averaging the 29th fastest offensive possession time. If you read my "NCAA Conference Tournament Preview" over in the articles section of my page, you'd know that Western Kentucky plays a very similar style to Kennesaw, as it likes to play downhill basketball, driving to the hoop and getting lots of FT attempts. WKU also ranks 62nd in the nation tempo wise. On the year, both teams rank inside the top 20 in the country in free throw attempts per game. Not only that, but both rank inside the top 10 "worst" in free throw attempts allowed per game. I don't see how FT's don't become a massive part in this game and this one should get high scoring near the end. 

Burns' Prediction: 88-86 Kennesaw.

(#773) Tulane Green Wave | ATS | . 

Tulane had to play yesterday against Memphis. As the Tigers have struggled all season, the Green Wave were able to cruise to a victory. Even though Tulane's numbers haven't been all that impressive either this season, I do believe that this is a fantastic spot for the Green Wave to keep rolling and pull off another "mini upset." 

Charlotte's struggled down the stretch, dropping three consecutive contests. I know that Tulane had lost four straight entering this tournament. But, the game yesterday might just help it get into a groove. The 49ers are quite bad in terms of turnover percentage this year and Tulane should be able to take advantage. I also believe that the Green Wave will have the best player on the court today in Rowan Brumbaugh. He dropped 35 last night and I'm expecting another big game from him. ML is an option, but whether it's ML or ATS, ride with the Green Wave. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-69 Tulane.

(#740) Wisconsin Badgers | ATS | . 

Washington looked solid in its first Big Ten Conference Tournament game against USC. The Huskies won that game in OT and have moved on to the next round. Something about these West Coast teams playing all the way here in Chicago for a longer period of time doesn't really have me too excited about the Huskies though. All season long, they've failed to win consecutive road/neutral court games and I don't see it happening here today either. 

One could argue that Wisconsin has played down to its opponents level for some of this season and that's slightly true. But, the Badgers know that it's March and have looked like real contenders coming down the stretch of the season. Not only did Wisconsin beat Purdue on the road in its final game. But, the Badgers also have wins over Michigan, Illinois, MSU, Ohio State, UCLA & Iowa this season. That's about as good as it can get. Wisconsin already beat Washington by 17 on the road. This one's much closer to Badger country. Give me Wisconsin on Thursday. 

Burns' Prediction: 89-72 Wisconsin.

(#737) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (#747) Ohio State Buckeyes | UNDER | . 

All season long, Iowa's established itself as one of the premier defending teams in the country. Ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, the Hawkeyes have allowed an average of only 65.8 PPG (which is 17th best.) They also play at the 12th slowest pace in the country via. KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. 

Ohio State doesn't play quite as slow. But, the Buckeyes are not a fast playing team by any means either. They managed to lock down the three point shot of Iowa (5/18) in the first meeting this season, and will need to do a much better job at defending the paint. Even if Iowa's able to establish itself inside again, I don't believe that there's going to be enough "chunk" points to send this one "over" the number. Give me the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 68-63 Iowa.

(#675) Providence Friars | ATS | . 

These teams met up back in early February and had a thriller that went to double-OT. I know that Butler owns the better seed & overall record coming into today's contest. But, I don't expect the Bulldogs to come out of this game with a win. They finished the season with eight losses over their past 11 games and have not shot the three ball well whatsoever. Over their past four games, they are 16/66 from deep, which is 24%. Butler already shoots poorly from deep on the season at a 32% rate. 

Providence, on the other hand, is very efficient offensively (ranked 37th in KenPom.) The Friars have an effective FG% that's inside the also top 50 in the country and I'm expecting them to have revenge on their minds after losing to Butler in this very matchup during last year's tournament. Butler lost by 22 in this arena earlier this season and shot a whopping 50% from the FT line (15/30.) I think that Providence has the stronger big-game players and they will get the job done at the Garden. 

Burns' Prediction: 91-82 Providence.

(#645) SMU Mustangs vs. (#646) Louisville Cardinals | OVER | . 

In March, the air gets tighter and the players have a lot more pressure on them. Having said that, I still believe that there are great opportunities to play on totals, both "under" and "over" bets. SMU has been a fast playing team throughout this season and although it could be without BJ Edwards again, I think that the Mustangs are going to want to play fast this evening. Don't forget that they rank #19 in offensive efficiency as well, taking very high quality shots. 

Looking at Louisville, it plays even faster than SMU. The Cardinals rank #43 in adjusted tempo, while also having one of the country's top offenses. As a matter of fact, they rank even higher in offensive efficiency, as the #14 best team in the nation in that category. Expect lots of running and tons of points in this ACC Tournament game on Wednesday. 

Burns' Prediction: 92-84 Louisville.

(#306554) UMBC Retrievers | ATS | . 

In both meetings this season, UMASS Lowell struggled. The River Hawks were simply outclassed and didn't even come close, losing both games by 20+ points. On the season, they have had a really tough time at the free throw line and have also been very poor at paint defense. Looking at the Retrievers, they use a mixture of outside and inside attack and play fantastic team basketball. We all remember when the UMBC team of 2018 knocked off UVA in the first round as a #16 seed. Why can't this squad do the exact same thing with the right matchup. No, UMBC doesn't get the steals/blocks defensively that lots of good defenses have. But, it forces opponents to make tough shots and that's what has been the key to success all year long. At home, expect another UMBC double digit destruction against UMASS Lowell. 

Burns' Prediction: 84-59 UMBC.

(#802) East Tennessee State Buccaneers | ATS | . 

Western Carolina has definitely looked great so far in the SOCON tournament. But, I just don't see the Catamounts continuing its success on Sunday. They rank just #297 in defensive efficiency this season and own the #327 defensive effective field goal percentage. Against any team, those are stats that cannot be ignored. But, especially against ETSU. 

The Buccaneers are #35 in the country in offensive effective FG percentage and combine that with excellent all-around pressure from offense-defense. Averaging 8.8 steals per game, I just don't see East Tennessee State losing again to this team. Western Carolina won the first two meetings by a combined six points. Given the revenge factor and numbers that these teams have produced this year, expect ETSU to move on in the SOCON tournament. 

Burns' Prediction: 83-70 ETSU.

(#306527) Winthrop Eagles vs. (#306528) High Point Panthers | OVER | . 

Although its record isn't as special as High Point's, Winthrop has been absolutely fantastic over the past two months of the season. As a matter of fact, since Jan 1st, the Eagles are 15-2 in all games. That's excellent for any team in the country. A large part of that success comes from their offense. Ranking #119 in offensive efficiency via. KenPom, I expect the Eagles to have quite a bit of success in this one. Not to mention that they also play at the #57 fastest tempo in the country. 

On the other hand, the Panthers like to play just as fast at #61 in the nation. One of those two losses that Winthrop had down the stretch was against HPU in a 89-87 thriller. The Panthers own the #62 offensive efficiency in the country, ranking #30 in 2pt percentage and #50 in effective FG percentage. I expect another high scoring matchup between these two teams. 

Burns' Prediction: 92-81 High Point.

(#719) Arizona Wildcats | ATS | . 

Even on the road here on Saturday, I'm expecting the Arizona Wildcats to cruise to another blowout win this evening. Even with a loss here, Arizona would still probably end up on the #1 line. However, a win here would most definitely secure it no matter what happens inside the Big 12 Tournament. Having said that, this should be a game that Tommy Lloyd's team takes very seriously. A game like this is a spot to show the world what the Wildcats are capable of and I expect them to do just that. 

Colorado began Big 12 play with a pair of wins. It then followed that up with six consecutive losses. Since then, the Buffaloes have been fairly inconsistent. Against the best teams in the conference, they have not done too well. Losing to Houston by 40. Losing to Texas Tech by 34. Losing to Iowa State by 30. I know that all of those games were on the road. But, with one of the worst 3pt defenses in the whole country, I don't expect Colorado to have much of a chance here on Saturday evening. Hammer the Wildcats and expect a 20+ point win. 

Burns' Prediction: 93-72 Arizona.

(#702) Alabama Crimson Tide | ATS | . 

Basketball's version of the Iron Bowl takes place this weekend to conclude the regular season. Although Auburn was able to keep the first meeting quite closer earlier this year, I just don't believe that the Tigers are going to be able to stick with this top level offense for 40 minutes on the road this time around. Auburn has been rather poor throughout this season and although it's on the bubble right now, I think that it has a much better chance at winning a game or two in the SEC tournament if the matchup is correct. The Crimson Tide have won eight of their most recent nine games. Although they lost last time out, they own KenPom's 3rd most efficient offense in the nation. Alabama uses the whole bench while Auburn doesn't have any depth at all. I've got the Tide in a beatdown. 

Burns' Prediction: 98-79 Bama.

(#737) Western Carolina Catamounts / (#738) Mercer Bears | OVER | . 

Entering the tournament, Western Carolina might just be the hottest team in the SOCON. The Catamounts have won six consecutive contests and are averaging 84.0 PPG over those games. I know that this is going to be a difficult matchup for them, given that Mercer was fantastic during the regular season. But, there's no question in my mind that WCU will be able to score. 

Mercer plays at the #89 fastest tempo in the country, while owning a very poor defense. Opponents are shooting nearly 37% from the 3pt line against the Bears this season and that's something WCU will be able to capitalize on. Mercer also has a very solid offense. I expect a ton of points in this basketball game. 

Burns' Prediction: 87-80 Mercer.

(#689) UT Arlington Mavericks @ (#690) Abilene Christian Wildcats | UNDER | . 

Playing at the #310 tempo in the country, UT Arlington is one of the slowest teams out there. Not only that, but the Mavericks combine their slow pace with the #53 ranked defensive efficiency. They have the best 3pt % against in the country at just 27.5% this season. UTA also struggles offensively, with an effective FG% of 47.8% which is #318. 

Abilene Christian doesn't play quite as slow. But, the Wildcats offense is very poor as well. As a matter of fact, they are #332 in effective FG% and it's not going to get any better against a fantastic UTA defense. The first meeting saw these teams combine for 130. I expect even less on Saturday in an important final game of the regular season. 

Burns' Prediction: 63-56 UTA.

(#601) Arkansas Razorbacks | ATS | . 

After opening as a favorite, the Razorbacks are now slight underdogs. I understand that this is a road game and the final home game of the season for the Tigers. But, I simply believe that Arkansas is a much better basketball team and will have much more success in the month of March. The Razorbacks have the best offensive turnover % in the country, and shoot the ball extremely well (#16 in effective FG%.) 

Although Missouri shoots the ball quite well too, it really struggles at holding onto the ball, giving away 11.6 turnovers per game this season. I am not a big fan of the Tigers' defense either. They've been too lackadaisical at times including their most recent game against Oklahoma. In that game, the Sooners shot 70% from the field and 55% from deep! That's very poor from Missou. 

In the end, if this game goes down to the wire, I expect Darius Acuff Jr. to once again be the best player on the court. He's proven time and time again that he's one of the best players in the whole country. Give me the Razorbacks on Saturday. 

Burns' Prediction: 84-77 Arkansas.

(#873) Denver Pioneers @ (#874) North Dakota Fighting Hawks | OVER | . 

While neither of these teams play at an extremely fast pace, I'm expecting a ton of points in this basketball game on Friday evening. Both teams struggle on the defensive end. As. matter of fact, Denver ranks 357th in defensive efficiency this season while North Dakota ranks 334th. Not to mention that they are both also significantly better on the offensive end. 

When these teams have met up this year, both meetings went "over" the number which was similar to today's. While that's not always something that I like to point out, as there's always going to be change. However, considering that UND shot 3/21 from deep in the last game and was still able to score 79 on Denver's defense means that it should cause much more damage this evening. I've got the "over." 

Burns' Prediction: 88-86 Denver.

(#854) Bradley Braves | ATS | . 

Although Valparaiso had a fantastic comeback win to reach this point in the MVC. tournament, I believe that it's time has come to get sent home packing. The Beacons did finish the year quite well. However, they are 350th in 2pt FG % this season and that could be a real issue if the three ball isn't falling. 

I know that the Braves aren't great against 3pt shots, which is a bit worrisome. But, they have a fantastic player in Jaquan Johnson who was on this team last year and is ready to explode as the superstar of this tournament. Remember that Bradley made the final in this tournament a year ago. Bradley is much better offensively and I expect it to get the job done here this evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 77-66 Bradley.

(#871) Nebraska Omaha Mavericks | ATS | . 

If you've followed me this season, you will have seen that I think that this Omaha team is much better than its record suggests. Well, I'm actually 5-0 on Omaha this season, while successfully playing my SUMMIT GOY and DOY on it this season. The Mavericks have had an off-year, given the fact that they were in the NCAA Tournament a year ago and have fallen in the standings. But, there's no question that they shouldn't be in the conversation when picking a winner in this conference tournament. They are experienced and definitely have the capabilities of doing so. South Dakota is not great and relies on shooting a ton of FT's. Omaha doesn't foul a whole lot. Give me the Mavs to move on. 

Burns' Prediction: 85-77 Omaha.

(#852) Murray State Racers | ATS | . 

I'm not sold on this Illinois Chicago team one bit. I know that the Flames had an eight game winning streak during conference play in this tournament. I know that it's difficult to beat a team three times (which Murray State will have to do.) But, the Flames are not great offensively, percentage wise, and that's going to be a problem on Friday afternoon. 

Murray State, on the other hand, is great offensively and will push the pace. The Racers haven't been at their best to end the season, which is most likely the reason for being only slight favorites. But, they have phenomenal athletes, who I think can compete among the best of the best in the country (if they were to make the tournament) and this might just be the coming out party for French freshman Roman Domon. They've had all week long to prepare for this game and I expect Murray State to explode to a big time victory here on Friday. 

Burns' Prediction: 88-75 Murray State.

(#306605) Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | ATS | . 

Upset alert. I know that FGCU had lost a pair of games coming into this tournament. But, the Eagles brushed those games off and really stepped it up on Wednesday in their domination of North Alabama. That's right, the Eagles managed to win by double digits while shooting 4/21 from three point land. I expect a much better shooting performance from the guys who shoot the ball quite effectively from all three levels. 

Lipscomb might have had the better regular season. But, this is a tough spot for the Bisons who haven't played in more than a week. I know that rest could very well help some teams. But, this is the longest stretch without a game since January and the Bisons lost that game on the same amount of days rest vs. Jacksonville. These kids want to play and having so much time off could come back to cost them. I'll grab the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 76-70 FGCU.

(#781) Kennesaw State Owls | ATS | . 

I believe that this should be a complete mismatch. Kennesaw State brings in the league's fourth best record with a pair of games remaining. It can still catch the team in front of it or drop in the conference standings, meaning this is an important matchup. The Owls, who are heating up at the perfect time, are among the tallest in the country, dominating the glass.

On the other hand, UTEP is on the smaller side and doesn't really have much to match up with Kennesaw in this one. I know that the Miners have home court this evening. But, as a team that shoots only 46.4% from within the arc (2pt shots,) I just don't see how it keeps this one close. That's 342th in the country. Let's also note that UTEP's lost four consecutive games, including B2B by 20+ points. Lay the few points in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 80-70 Kennesaw.

(#808) Arkansas State Red Wolves | ATS | . 

Having played on Wednesday and knocking off Old Dominion, the gauntlet continues for Georgia Southern. This is perhaps the roughest conference tournament to get through as a lower seed and considering that Arkansas State actually owned the same conference record as the team that finished 2nd in the conference is mind-boggling. GASO hasn't been great this season, with the #312 defensive efficiency in the country via. KenPom's rankings. 

Arkansas, on the other hand, is much stronger defensively, and has the #11 offensive rebounding percentage, leading to many second chance opportunities. Sometimes the pace of GASO overwhelms opponents. However, the Red Wolves play even faster than the Eagles and simply play at much higher quality. I am Expect a double digit win from AKST. 

I've been pretty successful when playing on games that included the GASO University. As a matter of fact, in both CBB & CFB, I am 7-0 combined in Georgia Southern games, including a win on the Red Wolves in this very matchup earlier this year as my SBC GOY. This time, expect them to dominate even more. 

Burns' Prediction: 93-77 Ark St.

(#743) Northern Kentucky Norse @ (#744) Oakland Golden Grizzlies | OVER | . 

Playing at the 59th fastest pace in the country, via, KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings, Northern Kentucky is going to want to push the pace in this basketball game. The Norse love getting the ball into the paint and creating easy buckets down low, leading to their 82.5 PPG this season. Having had all week to prepare, and having scored 173 points over its past couple of games, I expect NKU's offense to be ready again. 

Oakland too relies on its offense to carry the load. Also averaging 82.5 PPG, the Golden Grizzlies play at an even faster tempo at 55th in the country. They also like to get the ball into the paint and create opportunities down low. That leads to quite a few foul shots per game and they do a great job from the charity stripe. With both meetings during the regular season having gone "under" this sets up perfectly for a high scoring game on Wednesday. 

Burns' Prediction: 91-82 Oakland.

(#306566) Long Island University Sharks | ATS | . 

Having the luxury of playing at home in the Northeast Tournament is going to be massive for Long Island. As the #1 seed, the Sharks basically control their own destiny. They went 11-1 on this court during the regular season and that included two blowout wins against this very Chicago State team. 

I know that it's rather difficult to defeat a team three times in a season. But, considering that the Cougars are the 348th ranked team in KenPom's efficiency rankings (among the worst,) I just don't see it having a chance in this basketball game. They are terrible at defending, allowing the highest percentage of any team on 2pt jump shots, at 60.2% this year. Considering all of the numbers, this game should be ugly from the opening tip off. 

Burns' Prediction: 84-62 LIU.

(#678) UCLA Bruins | ATS | . 

After beating USC comfortably over the weekend, the Cornhuskers had to stay on the West Coast for a few days to take on UCLA this evening. I know that it doesn't seem like much. But, for college students, that's a solid amount of time to be away from home and stay focused. These Big 10 teams still aren't completely used to having to go out West for a road trip mid-season like this. USC is a team in shambles - its loss didn't surprise me. But, Nebraska will have to be even better on Tuesday to knock off UCLA. 

Talking about the Bruins, they are in must-win mode as the regular season's end fast approaches. Having just lost against Minnesota, UCLA has to wake up over these final couple of games. As of February 27th, before the recent loss, Joe Lunardi had UCLA as a nine seed. That's cutting it very close. A statement win here at home could be just what the Bruins need in order to firmly solidify themselves as a tournament team. I expect the Bruins fans to be out and loud on Tuesday. Expect a mini-upset. 

Burns' Prediction: 76-67 UCLA.

(#306538) Jackson State Tigers | ML | . 

Both of these teams have been pretty bad this season and there's no way around it really. Arkansas Pine Bluff has 12 wins while Jackson State has nine. However, this is a home game for the Tigers, who are 5-3 when playing at home this year. Jackson State seeks revenge on Tuesday after losing the first meeting by 21 points. Prior to that, the Tigers had won the past 16 meetings since 2018. Ark Pine Bluff might have the slightly stronger numbers statistically this year. But, having just lost twice in a three game home stand, I don't expect the Golden Lions to fare well on the road on Tuesday. Give me JKST.

Burns' Prediction: 83-75 Jackson St.

(#607) Towson Tigers @ (#608) Stony Brook Seawolves | UNDER | . 

I expect this to be a very low scoring contest on Tuesday. Towson brings in the 97th most efficient defense via. KenPom's rankings. Not only that, but the Tigers are significantly worse on the offensive side of the ball, while playing at the 345th fastest tempo. In February, the Tigers played three road games and averaged 60.67 PPG over those three games. 

Stony Brook doesn't play nearly as slow, but still ranks among the slower playing teams in College Basketball. The Seawolves have been struggling, putting up just 127 points over their most recent two contests. Remember, these teams combined for only 126 a few weeks ago. Neither team fouls a lot. Play the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 63-57 Stony Brook.

(#306529) Bryant Bulldogs | ATS | . 

Although this has not been a great season for Bryant, the Bulldogs can definitely still finish the regular season on a positive note. Although there were a ton of new faces this season, the Bulldogs went 14-2 last season in conference play. This is a group that's been great over the past few seasons and an organization that thrives in this month. I wouldn't be shocked if they grabbed an early upset & made a bit of a run in the AE Tournament coming up. 

New Hampshire's been even worse than Bryant in conference play this year, sitting in 8th. The Wildcats have lost eight consecutive games, dating back to January 31st which actually started w/ a loss against Bryant. They simply just don't have it this year and will most likely be sent home in a couple of days time. Bryant's been really bad, I know. But, the Bulldogs have a significant edge in FT shooting. That's going to help propel them to an upset victory on Tuesday. 

Burns' Prediction: 70-60 Bryant.

(#306519) Lamar Cardinals | ATS | . 

Playing on a team that's lost seven consecutive games is never easy. But, this is a perfect spot to do so. Lamar is not as bad as it's been playing and it's lost five of these seven games by single digits. The Cardinals have already beaten HCU this season, which should give some confidence to the players, who normally would be down in a situation like this. Lamar is a fantastic shot blocking team, which is something that could be a difference maker given how small of a team that the Huskies are. Looking more at Houston Christian, it's not a good defensive team, especially inside the paint. The Huskies will struggle to get open looks and will be slightly demoralized after being crushed at home against SFA last time out. Despite a decent record here at home, the home crowd is close a non-factor here at HCU. I expect the better team coming away with the big win to close out the regular season and that's Lamar. Hammer the Cardinals. 

Burns' Prediction: 71-59 Lamar.

(#865) Montana Grizzlies | ATS | . 

Even despite not having that strong of a year, Montana remains a team to watch out for in the Big Sky Conference. The Grizzlies have already beaten UNCO this season and although I don't love that at times, this is a great spot for them to continue to roll into the conference tourney with some momentum. Montana just knocked off a very gritty Portland St team and shoots the ball at a tremendous percentage. As a matter of fact, the Grizzlies own the #24 most effective FG% in the whole country. On the other hand, I know that Northern Colorado is a very solid team itself. However, the Bears don't get too many opportunities at the free throw line (22nd least FT attempts per game) and they also have quite bad at defending inside of the paint. Considering Montana's edge in the FT department, I'll give the edge to the Grizzlies in a tight game. Grab the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 77-75 Montana.

(#832) Marist Red Foxes | ATS | . 

Back on the second of January, Marist suffered a loss against this very Saint Peter's team. I don't think that it was a strong performance from the Red Foxes back then whatsoever. Since, they've played very well inside the MAAC, and currently sit in 4th inside the conference standings. The Red Foxes own the 51st most efficient defense in the country, via. KenPom's efficiency rankings. 

St. Peter's got famous for making a run into the second weekend of one of the NCAA Tournaments a couple of seasons ago now. However, even despite their strong conference record, I have not been too impressed with the Peacocks lately. They average 20.2 fouls per game, which ranks T-12 among all teams in the country. That's significant because Marist shoots 79.2% from the line, which is #4 in the country. Give me Marist in this revenge game. 

Burns' Prediction: 70-55 Marist.

(#802) UC San Diego Tritons | ATS | . 

Earlier this season when these two teams matched up, Cal Poly was able to get to win. The Mustangs play at the fastest pace in the country and even though it didn't come back to haunt them in that game back in January, I believe that it will do just that this evening. The Mustangs have perhaps an even tougher opponent due up on the road, and I expect them to be looking ahead to that game @UCI during next week. 

That should give UCSD the perfect opportunity to strike back and even up the season series. Last season, UCSD won both meetings by double digits, including a 95-68 win here at home. Now, I know that the Tritons aren't as dominant as last year. But, this is still a fantastic basketball team that's scorching hot at the moment. Lay the number. 

Burns' Prediction: 82-68 UCSD.

(#731) BYU Cougars | ATS | . 

Even with the somewhat of a late comeback of the Cougars in their last game against UCF, it was the most humiliating defeat of the year. BYU looked absolutely horrendous in that first half and I simply don't see that happening again this season, even against the best of the best. With games @Cinci and at home against TTU remaining, BYU absolutely needs this basketball game. It's got one of the most talented squads in College Hoops. 

Looking at West Virginia, I have not been too impressed with the results lately. As much as I like both Honor Huff & Treyson Eaglestaff as players, the Mountaineers just aren't on the same level as the Cougars. I also know that WVU has a fantastic home court with loud/roudy fans. That should fuel AJ Dybantsa even more, as a top three pick in this upcoming draft. 

It's as simple as this, BYU needs this game a whole lot more than WVU does. The Mountaineers could use a few more wins for a confidence boost going into next season. But, they have two much easier matchups after this one to close out the season. Rebounding will be a key factor and Brigham Young does it at a much higher level. Give me BYU as my #1 BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK. 

Burns' Prediction: 76-63 BYU.

(#639) Oregon Ducks @ (#640) Northwestern Wildcats | UNDER | . 

It hasn't been the season that Oregon was hoping for, that's for sure. Injuries have been a big issue for the Ducks and they just couldn't put anything together offensively. They are coming off consecutive strong performances. But, too little too late to do anything this year. With a below average pace of play, at 266th in the country in tempo, I believe that the Ducks are going to struggle here to score on the road against Northwestern. 

Looking at the Wildcats, they also play at a similar pace, 263rd in the nation in tempo. What stands out to me is the defense for NW. It might not light up the stats compared to some of the "best of the best" in the country. But, the Wildcats hold opposing teams to an average of 18.9 seconds per possession, which is 3rd longest of any team. 

Although both offenses aren't what you'd call "bad," I do believe that the tempo will be a lot slower in this game given the circumstances. Both teams don't have much to play for and I expect to see the coaches work on some longer sets to build on for next season. Expect a low scoring contest. 

Burns' Prediction: 69-60 Northwestern.

(#306569) Mercyhurst Lakers @ (#306570) Stonehill Skyhawks | UNDER | . 

If I'm being honest, I'm not sure why the o/u line on this game keeps going up and up and up (opened at 133.5.) Mercyhurst plays extremely slow, as the 331rd ranked team in adjusted tempo via. KenPom. Not only that, but the Lakers average 19.9 seconds per possession offensively, which actually ranks the third slowest of any team in the country. Considering they don't shoot the ball well from deep either, I'm expecting the Lakers to be below 65 points in this game. 

Stonehill isn't very strong either. The Skyhawks rank 363th in offensive efficiency on the season (3rd worst) and are averaging 66.2 PPG this season. They also play at a very slow pace, at 257th in adjusted tempo. The first matchup between these sides went to OT and still didn't even reach 120 points. I mean, they literally combined for 119 points including a five minute period added on. I'm all over the "under" in today's game. 

Burns' Prediction: 62-59 Stonehill.

(#871) Merrimack Warriors @ (#872) Canisius Golden Griffins | UNDER | . 

I'm expecting a very low scoring contest here on Friday. Merrimack is coming off consecutive OT games (one going to double OT) and I just don't see that happening again in this one. The Warriors play at the 348th tempo in the country with an outstanding defense. They limit opposing teams to just 29.6% from 3pt land which ranks in the top 15. Rebounding has been one of the only issues for this team. But, against a squad that also doesn't rebound too well, I don't expect that to come back to haunt the Warriors or the "under" for that matter. Canisius has the 332nd fastest pace in the nation with the 358th ranked offense. That's simply brutal. Shooting a horrid 43.8% from within the arc, which is 359th, I do not expect Canisius to be able to crack 60 on Friday, even at home. Give me the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 63-54 Merrimack.

(#867) Harvard Crimson @ (#868) Princeton Tigers | UNDER | . 

Harvard brings in a respectable 15-10 record, currently 2nd in the Ivy League standings. A massive part of that is the defense, especially along the perimeter. The Crimson don't rush things whatsoever, playing at the 6th slowest tempo via. KenPom in the country. That's going to help them run their offense and although they are superb from the charity stripe, they do not shoot that many of them. In five road game since Jan 1st, Harvard allowed an average of 58.0 PPG. 

The Tigers, on the other hand, haven't been nearly as strong this year. However, with three games remaining, there's definitely still some opportunity, with fourth spot only a game away. Princeton plays almost just as slow as Harvard, ranking 349th out of 365 teams in tempo. Despite the defense not being nearly as strong as the Crimson's, the Tigers are also fantastic at eliminating the three ball. Expect a ton of long possessions with not too many long balls. This one stays "under."

Burns' Prediction: 62-57 Harvard.

(#839) UT Arlington Mavericks @ (#840) California Baptist Lancers | UNDER | . 

I expect a really low scoring contest on Thursday evening. Despite the losing record inside the conference, UT Arlington ranks 63rd in KenPom's defensive efficiency rankings. The Mavericks are 32nd in PPG allowed and this is all while playing at a very slow pace; 296th in adjusted tempo. They should be able to limit Cal Baptist today. 

Talking about the Lancers, they too are much better defensively than offensively. As a matter of fact, they are 67th in defensive efficiency, while playing at a very similar pace, ranking 289th in adjusted tempo. These two teams went to OT in the first meeting, which was a higher scoring game. Both of them have played in much lower scoring games since, then and have shown that defense is key. Considering that the o/u line is even lower in this game than the first meeting, I've got the "under" in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 60-55 Cap Batist.

(#306522) Stonehill Skyhawks | ATS | . 

Last season, St. Francis PA was able to shock the rest of the Northeast Conference and reach the Big Dance. This time around, I don't believe that the Red Flash have much of a chance. Currently 7-22 on the year, dead last in conference play with a record of 5-11, this shouldn't be a matchup that they win both of in 2025-26. St. Francis did win back at home in January. But, this time around, it should be much different. 

Stonehill doesn't have the greatest of records either. But, it's much more respectable. The Skyhawks might not own the best of offenses. But, the defense keeps them in games and that should be the key here this evening. Down the stretch, I believe that Stonehill will be able to hit its free throws and the pace of the Red Flash is going to come back to cost them here this evening. Hammer the Skyhawks. 

Burns' Prediction: 73-61 Stonehill.

(#306501) Bethune-Cookman Wildcats | ATS | . 

While I haven't played on Bethune-Cookman yet this season, I did win with the Wildcats as my SWAC CONF. TOURNEY GOY a season ago. They have been excellent over the majority of this season and enter today's action as the top ranked team in the conference at the moment. Even though that's not saying much given some of the records in the conference, B-CU's performances out of conference impressed me as well. The Wildcats enter today off consecutive wins and want to close out the regular season with a bang. 

Grambling State doesn't really have anything to lose, like the majority of the SWAC at the moment. However, the Tigers rank T-8th worst in the country in turnovers per game this year with 14.9 and I just don't see their offense having much success in this ball game. Even on the road, give me the Wildcats to come away with another big time win. 

Burns' Prediction: 74-63 B-CU.

(#741) Seattle Redhawks | ATS | . 

I like Seattle a lot in this game on Wednesday evening. The Redhawks come into today's contest having just been on a 3-game home stand. Winning two out of three was always the most likely scenario, given that one of those game was against St. Mary's. But, the Redhawks played that game tremendously and definitely could have won. I liked what I saw. Having said that, I expect them to finish the season strongly and go into the WCC tourney feeling extra confident. 

Pepperdine has been one of the worst teams in the conference again this year and I don't see that changing as we near March. The Waves have lost 60% of their home games and Seattle's going to want to have a much better defensive showing than the first meeting. I'm expecting a double digit Redhawks win this evening.

Burns' Prediction: 75-62 Seattle.

(#701) Florida Gators | ATS | . 

Somewhat surprisingly, after winning with Florida twice in the NCAA Tournament a season ago, in both the final four and in the final, I haven't played on the Gators once yet this season. Even though I knew that the front court was among the best in the country, I was skeptical at first with the guard play. Having said that, I believe that this is the perfect time to unleash with confidence on Florida. It's playing its best basketball right now and Todd Golden simply knows how to win at this time of the year. 

Up against a Texas team that was also scorching hot entering this past weekend, this should be an energetic contest with a great Longhorn crowd. The matchup on Saturday vs. UGA was your typical let down spot, with a huge game like this on deck. Having said that, the confidence having been on a five game winning streak definitely will have dropped a bit. None of those opponents of the Longhorns during that 5-gm winning stretch are ranked in the top 50 of KenPom's efficiency rankings. UGA was a step up in competition and now, this is a massive difference. Florida is top 20 offensively and defensively, ranking 5th overall. Even on the road, expect a big statement win for Florida as the Gators look to remain one of the country's hottest programs. 

Burns' Prediction: 92-76 Florida.

(#663) Arizona Wildcats @ (#664) Baylor Bears | OVER | . 

This o/u line is simply way too low. I get that the Arizona Wildcats have been playing in low scoring contests recently. However, those games were against great defensive teams. As a matter of fact, all four of the Wildcats' past four games have been against opponents w/ defensive efficiencies ranked in the top 50 of KenPom. Today's game should definitely open up the Arizona offense. 

Baylor's coming off a great win over Arizona State to get the season back on track at least a little bit. While the Bears are significant underdogs this evening, they should still attempt to win this game. It's much easier said than done, but being at home should give them much more confidence than being away in this contest. Baylor scores an average of 87.9 PPG at home this season which is 14.8 PPG more than it does in away games. That's huge. 

In the end, I'd be shocked if the Wildcats didn't come away victorious. But, don't expect it to be easy. Both teams are capable of putting up a ton of points and the defense is definitely not great, especially inside the pain this year for the Bears. I'm all over the "over" in this basketball game on Tuesday evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 91-77 Arizona.

(#306605) Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils @ (#306606) Grambling State Tigers | UNDER | . 

While neither of these two teams play at an extremely slow pace like I normally look for, the offensive of both sides are simply brutal. Mississippi Valley State is and has been one of the worst teams in the country over the past few years and the 364th rated offensive efficiency via. KenPom is a big part in why. The Delta Devils score only 61.9 PPG on the road, 57.9 PPG if we look at the 10 road games since the start of December.

Grambling State's offense isn't much better, scoring 232 points over its past four home games // 58.0 average. The Tigers are playing some of their worst basketball of the season and even though this seems like a good matchup, if the offense can't score, this could be an all-time low scoring affair. I've got the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 70-52 Grambling.

(#840) Tulane Green Wave | ATS | . 

I think that this line should be much bigger, possibly even into the double digits. Rice has been dealing with inconsistencies all season long and is coming off maybe it's worst loss of the season, by double digits against a 9-18 ECU team (at home.) I know that the Owls have had a whole week off, and time to prepare for this game. But, that isn't going to help against a scorching hot team on the other side. 

Fresh off three consecutive wins, the Green Wave are playing their best basketball of the year. Each of their past two games were on the road and the oddsmakers had them as a decent sized dog. Now, back at home, I expect the Green Wave to give their fans something to cheer about this weekend. Tulane's defense and length will be the difference in this game. Hammer Tulane. 

Burns' Prediction: 83-67 Tulane.

(#803) Cal State Fullerton Titans @ (#804) Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | OVER | . 

Even though neither of these two teams are what you'd call "really good" they both like to play very fast and that should help this game be very high scoring on Saturday evening. Cal State Fullerton is coming off one of its best offensive performances of the season, dropping 93 against UC Davis. But, the Titans still allowed 92 points in that game and are susceptible to allowing quite a lot at any given moment. They are T-15 in PPG allowed per game at the moment. 

On the other hand, CS Bakersfield plays at the 62nd fastest pace in the country. The Roadrunners have been horrible, don't get me wrong. But, a match at home like this could give them some confidence. With how poor the Titans defense has been recently, allowing an average of 86.66 PPG over the past three games, I like CSUB to keep this one close at the very least. Either way, expect lots of points. 

Burns' Prediction: 87-82 CS Fullerton.

(#771) Furman Paladins | ATS | . 

Despite the average results lately, the Paladins are having another very solid year this season. Furman must wake up though to finish the year to have some confidence heading into March. It's been one of the better teams in the SoCon for a while now and that has made this a gigantic game on Saturday. The Paladins haven't shot the three ball at their best this year, but the 2pt shooting has been extremely effective/efficient all year long. 

For the Terriers, they've slowed down a bit recently. Losing two of their past three contests and only beating VMI by six last time out, they've failed to cover ATS in three straight now. Wofford wasn't expected to be great this year and has definitely had some struggles on the defensive end at times this year. Considering Furman lost the first game of these teams, I like it to bounce back and win this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 82-69 Furman.

(#754) Northern Iowa Panthers | ATS | . 

After winning the first meeting by 15 this season, Southern Illinois is probably feeling great about this game. However, the Salukis haven't done too much right other than that win this season and I'm expecting a massive response from the Panthers. SIU owns a 5-8 away record, but has actually won three consecutive road games. Don't expect a fourth straight on Saturday. 

With an 18-10 overall record, you'd probably expect the Panthers to be higher in the MVC standings (currently in 6th.) But, the conference is so competitive near the top, one win can alter the standings drastically. I believe that UNI has as good of a chance as any of these teams to come out of the conference with its stifling defense and unique style of play. Expect a big win here. 

Burns' Prediction: 68-50 UNI.

(#758) Idaho State Bengals | ATS | . 

Despite being in second place in the Big Sky Conference standings at the moment, Montana State hasn't really impressed me this season. The Bobcats rely on iso basketball to create open shots and don't really use much passing to run their offense. That's not going to be something that works in my opinion in the big games down the stretch. They also are fresh off an overtime road game on Thursday which definitely could suck some of the energy out of this team that will now be playing their third straight road game in a week's time. Looking at the Bengals, they had a very rough stretch of losing from mid-Jan to mid-Feb. That being said, Idaho State just broke that losing streak and looked very strong against Montana on Thursday. The Bengals like to get to the free throw line and should make that happen again on Saturday in a game where they can rely on a home crowd for support. Grab the points in this one and expect a mini upset. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-70 Idaho State.

(#730) Tarleton State Texans | ATS | . 

Utah Tech might own the better record and numbers this season. But, that doesn't mean that this is the right matchup for the Trail Blazers. They had their run of six straight wins and are now coming off of a disappointing loss against UT Arlington that could have them depleted for this encounter. Let's not forget what happened when Utah Tech was at home in this matchup. The Texans won that game by six points. 

Now, I know that it's difficult to beat a team twice in the same season. But, Tarleton State is playing some of its best basketball at this very moment and I believe that the Texans are going to be a tough out come the WAC Tourney. They have been excellent at home all year long and will play behind their home crowd again this evening. Tarleton is favored for a reason. Lay the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 80-68 Tarleton St.

(#663) Rhode Island Rams @ (#664) La Salle Explorers | UNDER | . 

Rhode Island brings in one of the best defenses in the whole conference into this game. The Rams don't score much and allow even less. Playing at the 273th pace in the nation, URI will look to slow down the game when it has the chance. Neither Rhode Island or La Salle shoot the three ball at a high rate either. 

In January, I had my A10 TOY on La Salle/Fordham "under" and was victorious. I know that the Explorers like to play very slow and play at the 320th fastest rate in the country this season. They also are much strong defensively than offensively, only producing 65.6 PPG this season. I don't expect many points from La Salle this afternoon. 

Even though the first meeting saw 150+ points, I don't see this one having more than 135. Hammer the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 65-58 URI.

(#625) North Carolina Tar Heels | ML | . 

After being dominated in the battle of North Carolina in the last game, this isn't necessarily the best spot for the Tar Heels. However, even without Wilson and possibly Veesaar, I do believe that they are the much more talented team and should be able to come out on top of this matchup on Saturday afternoon. 

The Orange just got blasted against Duke and nearly lost that game by 40 points. I know that it was a road game and that Syracuse has been playing much better at home over the past few games. But, this is a very daunting task on Saturday after that humiliation. Give me UNC on Saturday with or without Veesaar. 

Burns' Prediction: 79-73 UNC.

(#614) St. Joseph's Hawks | ATS | . 

After being predicted to finish as one of the better teams in the A10 this year, Loyola Chicago hasn't lived up to expectations whatsoever. As much as I want to avoid playing against the Ramblers, because I do think that they are better than their record, it's hard to pass up an opportunity like this where they are against a very solid opponent and on the road. The Ramblers are 8-19 ATS this year and 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS on the road. 

On the other hand, St. Joseph's has probably been exceeding most people's expectations. That being said, coming off the win over the Bonnies, I believe that the Hawks are going to continue the great play here this weekend. The Hawks won the first meeting away from home by 21 points. They should be able to win the matchup on their home court by double digits as well. 

Burns' Prediction: 80-63 JOES.

(#872) Iona Gaels | ATS | . 

St. Peter's has definitely exceeded expectations up until this point in the season with the second best record inside the MAAC at the moment at 12-4. However, the Peacocks continue to struggle in road games and it's been an issue all season long. They just lost as favorites on the road against a Sacred Heart team that owns a losing record. 

Looking at today's opponent, Iona hasn't been great inside the MAAC either. But, there's still time to improve the conference record as we head into the final couple of weeks of the regular season. The Gaels shoot nearly 5% better from the three point line and if those shots are falling today, there's no question in my mind that Iona can't win this game by double digits. Entering this season, I liked Iona a lot. I've got it winning this one on Friday. 

Burns' Prediction: 74-66 Iona.

(#813) South Dakota Coyotes @ (#814) Denver Pioneers | OVER | . 

I know that the past couple of games have been quite low scoring for South Dakota. But, this matchup should definitely open up some more opportunities to score a lot more points on Thursday evening. The Coyotes play at the #45 tempo in the country via. KenPom. They get to the free throw line at the 15th highest rate in the country (25.9 FTA per game) and shoot at a very respectable 75.2% as well. 

Denver, on the other hand, simply has one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Pioneers allow 82.7 PPG which is tied for the 13th worst in D1. They also play quite well offensively despite those struggles on the other side, scoring 83.3 PPG which is 42nd in the country. The Pioneers play pretty fast as well so I'm expecting a fairly solid pace in this contest. Don't forget that the "over" is also 5-1 over the past six meetings between these sides. I'm on the "over." 

Burns' Prediction: 93-84 Denver.

(#731) DePaul Blue Demons @ (#732) Seton Hall Pirates | UNDER | . 

This should be a really low scoring affair on Wednesday evening. DePaul hasn't been near the top of the Big East in a few years and probably won't be for a while yet. But, that doesn't mean that the Blue Demons can't contend. Via. KenPom, DePaul owns the 56th most efficient defense. That's going to do wonders against Seton Hall today. 

Talking about the Pirates, they are also fantastic defensively. They actually might be even better than DePaul on that side of the ball. They own the 12th best defensive efficiency and have locked up some of the best teams in the nation already this year. These teams combined for 127 the first time this year. Expect around the same or lower today. 

Burns' Prediction: 64-58 Seton Hall.

(#608) Buffalo Bulls | ATS | . 

These two teams met back at the end of December at NIU. That game turned into a thrashing pretty quickly with the Bulls winning by double digits. Northern Illinois has been poor throughout the season, winning just eight games this year and two out of 12 on the road. Northern Illinois also has one of the worst offensive capabilities in the league, currently ranked #343 in KenPom's offensive efficiency rankings. 

On the other hand, I know that Buffalo hasn't necessarily been great recently either. However, coming off a win and coming back home should help drastically. Unlike NIU, the Bulls are fantastic offensively, ranking #109 in those same rankings. That difference is going to be key here with one team being able to score and the other team struggling on the road. Lay the points and expect another double digit win. 

Burns' Prediction: 84-63 Buffalo.

(#306551) Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs @ (#306552) Charleston Southern Buccaneers | OVER | . 

Both of these teams aren't the best defensively, Gardner Webb especially. Entering with the 4th worst defensive efficiency in the country via. KenPom's rankings, the Runnin' Bulldogs are simply just bad on the defensive end. They've given up 100+ in consecutive games and now allow 87.8 per game which is the 3rd worst in the nation. 

Charleston Southern has allowed 90+ in two of its past three games. The Buccaneers enter as the large favorite this evening and I believe that is going to lead to them dictating the pace a bunch. Well, they play at the 22nd fastest pace in D1 and that's going to show here this evening. Hammer the "over."

Burns' Prediction: 98-82 Charleston Southern.

(#306535) Lamar Cardinals | ATS | . 

On the road on Monday, Lamar is going to have to bring its A-Game. Both of these two sides have played similar basketball this year, with similar records to show for. While UTRGV does have the slightly better numbers and an excellent record vs. the Southland this year, I do believe that the recent defeat that the Vaqueros suffered is still going to be in the back of their heads. It was their first loss in over a month and that's not always great for momentum. 

I know that Lamar hasn't been good lately, and there's a reason for it being the underdog. However, the Cardinals will dominate the glass in this game and that should help them get plenty of second chance opportunities to capitalize on. While UTRGV won the first meeting, it was all the way back in December. Both teams have changed a ton & I'm expecting a close affair. Take the points. 

Burns' Prediction: 71-67 Lamar.

(#851) Towson Tigers @ (#852) Monmouth Hawks | UNDER | . 

Both of these teams play at very slow paces. According to KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings, Towson owns the #343 pace in the country out of 365 teams. The Tigers combine that with the #96 defensive efficiency as well as very few fouls committed at T45 in D1. This should be a great matchup to show those compartments against another slower team. 

Monmouth plays slightly faster, but still at the #208 pace. The Hawks also combine that with above average defending and T64 in the nation. I'm expecting both of these two teams to slow down the game and play a defensive game after their 62-48 game back in January. Hammer the "under." 

Burns: Prediction: 64-57 Monmouth.

(#835) Illinois State Redbirds | ATS | . 

Coming off an electric second half performance against Valparaiso during the week, I expect the Redbirds to be flying all over the basketball court on Sunday against the Flames. Illinois State has the better record, but actually trails UIC in the conference standings, making this game very important for seeding in the upcoming conference tournament. The Redbirds have revenge on their minds after losing the first encounter in overtime. 

Looking at Illinois Chicago, it's had a rocky season. It's been much better inside the MVC. However, the Flames are beginning to play the better teams in the conference and have began faltering. I expect the stronger overall team to get the job done, even on the road this afternoon. 

Burns' Prediction: 77-63 Illinois State.

(#826) Quinnipiac Bobcats | ATS | . 

It's been five consecutive wins for the Merrimack Warriors. I'm not impressed though with this roster. Given that it's had struggles all year on the glass, I'm actually very shocked that the Warriors are in a good position at 17-9. If you didn't know, Merrimack owns the worst rebounding margin in the country at -9.5 per game. Against a great defensive team on the road, I don't see that working in its favor. 

Quinnipiac is also scorching hot entering this one off four straight wins. The Bobcats are elite at offensive rebounding and defending the ball inside the three point line. Merrimack doesn't spam the three so that's going to help Quinnipiac tonight. I believe that this line should be much heavier, so I'll lay the points on Sunday. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-66 Quinnipiac.

(#755) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | ATS | . 

Earlier this season, the Rainbow Warriors absolutely dominated the Matadors. I know that the game was played in Hawaii which is a daunting task for any team. But, this is going to be a similar result on Saturday in my books. Hawaii's been excellent throughout this season and CSU Northridge is not as good as its record suggests. Winning four consecutive games is as high as this season gets for the Matadors. While CSUN plays fast, & so does Hawaii - meaning it should be even in terms of pace. I expect the Rainbow Warriors' defense to be the difference. 

Burns' Prediction: 79-68 Hawaii.

(#697) Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles @ (#698) Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles | UNDER | . 

Coming off consecutive defeats, while scoring only 120 combined points in those two games, I believe that Tennessee Tech is going to be lacking confidence for this one. The Golden Eagles already play at a lesser than average pace and have one of the worst offenses in the country // 289th in offensive efficiency via. KenPom. 

On the other hand, Southern Indiana's offense is even worse. Coming in at 361st out of 365 teams in the nation, that's pretty abysmal. The Screaming Eagles did win the first matchup of these two sides back in January. The past three meetings have all gone "under" with scored of 125, 143 and 132. Expect another "under" on Saturday. 

Burns' Prediction: 67-62 USI.

(#680) UNC Wilmington Seahawks | ATS | . 

Hofstra managed to hang on against me on Thursday against Charleston. I still wasn't too impressed with the Pride. I firmly believe that Hofstra is overrated and won't be going too far in the CAA Conference Tournament next month. Despite winning four consecutive contests, the Pride had lost five straight before then. 

Looking at the other side of things, UNCW has the best record in the CAA by far and looks to extend the lead this afternoon. With a loss, there would be some concern on not getting the #1 seed in the tournament. But, a win here should be enough for the Seahawks to solidify it. Yes, William & Mary had UNC Wilmington's number over those two games. But, the Seahawks have been flawless in conference other than those two games. Lay the couple of points - or play ML. Either works. 

Burns' Prediction: 74-62 UNCW.

(#306607) Central Connecticut Blue Devils | ATS | . 

Entering the season, I believed that this Central Connecticut State team was going to be the team to beat in the NEC just like last year. While the Blue Devils are up there in the standings, the gap between them and LIU is definitely quite big. However, getting the #2 seed in the conference tournament is going to be key. Winning today is a must though. 

Fairleigh Dickinson had its run in the March Madness a few years ago. However, the Knights just aren't at the same level anymore. Teams from the Northeast Conference don't get respected much. But, in conference play, it's been a struggle. Both teams have won three consecutive games. CCSU's got a great 7-7 record in away games, with a 10-4 ATS record. I'll grab the point. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-63 CCSU.

(#641) Southern Methodist Mustangs | ATS | . 

On the road, oddsmakers believe that this is going to be a tough game for SMU. I don't think so. The Mustangs have played outstanding basketball all year long and even though they haven't gotten some of the results that they would have liked in ACC play this season, I do believe that SMU is one of the best teams in this conference. It's won consecutive games and both in style. 

Syracuse brings in a 14-11 record into Saturday's contest. Unlike SMU, I have not been impressed with what I've seen from the Orange, especially recently. They've lost six of their most recent eight contests and played a crazy double-OT contest mid-week against Cal which probably has sucked a bit of energy out of the team, despite the win. 

This will be the only meeting of these sides in the regular season and probably of the season. The Mustangs are significantly better offensively with the #15 ranked offensive efficiency via. KenPom's rankings opposed to #79 from Syracuse. Expect SMU to keep rolling and come out on top once again on Saturday. 

Burns' Prediction: 85-72 SMU.

(#887) Massachusetts Minutemen @ (#888) Akron Zips | OVER | . 

UMASS might not be as talented as Akron. But, the Minutemen won't be easy to beat on Friday evening. They play a very fast tempo as well, at #44 in the country via. KenPom. Not only that, but they've had lots of rest since their triple OT game on Saturday and have scored 90+ points in both of their games so far in February. UMASS probably won't score 90 this game, but I expect it to get around the 80 mark. 

Akron, on the other hand, is phenomenal offensively. Averaging 89.5 PPG on the year, the Zips are top 10 in all of College Basketball. They also play extremely fast, even faster than Massachusetts w/ the #43 ranked adjusted tempo rankings. Recent games for Akron probably has this total lower than it should be considering the defense has been improved. However, for this style of matchup, the defense should go out the door a tad which should also let the offense explode. I wouldn't be shocked if Akron reaches 100 points on Friday. Hammer the "over." 

Burns' Prediction: 96-81 Akron.

(#797) South Alabama Jaguars | ATS | . 

If you don't already know (from previous analysis') I played high school basketball alongside South Alabama G/F Adam Olsen. Averaging 16.0 PPG this season, he's a key part to what the Jags want to do, especially with his three point shooting ability. I know that the Jaguars are on the road this evening. But, they've done some of their best work away from home on the season and actually bring in a fantastic winning 6-5 record in away games. 

Southern Miss, on the other hand, doesn't do many things too well. At .500 on the season, I don't believe that the Golden Eagles have it in them to win this basketball game. They are coming off an emotional 1pt out of conference home win in their most recent game. They are going to have a hard time focusing on this game, given the circumstances in the conference standings with only five games to go. In the end, I'm giving the edge to USA's defense, which is significantly stronger than USM's. I'll grab the points, but expect a "mini road upset" from the Jags. 

Burns' Prediction: 70-62 USA.

(#781) Portland State Vikings | ATS | . 

While Portland State did win its last game, it didn't cover the spread for me. I'm backing the Vikings yet again on Thursday and I'm expecting a much better defensive performance from the 53rd ranked defense in KenPom's defensive efficiency rankings. That's right, the Vikings are normally phenomenal on that side of the ball, allowing a 3pt percentage of just 30.6% and only 69.5 PPG. 

That's going to be hard for Northern Arizona, as three point shooting is about the only thing that this school really does all too well. The Lumberjacks have struggled dearly all season long and are coming off a 19pt loss against Weber State. Portland State is a much better team than Weber State. Even on the road, lay the points with confidence. 

Burns' Prediction: 75-60 Portland St.

(#763) Marist Red Foxes @ (#764) Merrimack Warriors | UNDER | . 

With one of the lowest totals on the board today, I believe that it's for good reason. While struggling drastically on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 67.9 PPG in away games, Marist is actually one of the top defensive teams in all of College Hoops. The Red Foxes allow 62.6 PPG which ranks top five in the entire country. They also play at a fairly slow pace, making it difficult for their opponents to gain any sort of rhythm. 

Merrimack, on the other hand, plays extremely slow. According to KenPom's tempo rankings, the Warriors rank 343th in the country. Not to mention that their defense is also very solid at 144th in defensive efficiency. I believe that this one could see "under" 120 points on Thursday evening. Expect a low scoring contest nonetheless. 

Burns' Prediction: 58-53 Merrimack.

(#757) Murray State Racers | ATS | . 

In its last game, Murray State struggled to score for one of the only times this season. Yes, the Racers are on the road this evening. Yes, they haven't been the same teams recently as early in the season. However, I simply believe that this is the perfect matchup to get Murray State back on track. The Racers did only win by four in this encounter back at home. But, Indiana State shot 50% from deep in that game and I'm not expecting. that to be the case on Thursday. Talking about the Sycamores, they are really having trouble within the MVC this season. Currently second last in conference play, there's no really coming back this season. I firmly believe that Murray State should be able to run away with this one and potentially even win by more than my projections. 

Burns' Prediction: 92-77 Murray St.

(#762) College Of Charleston Cougars | ATS | . 

As good as Hofstra has been this season, I simply don't believe that it'll have the capability to win this game on the road. The Pride have got a great away record this year, winning 50% of their 14 games. However, they have won just one of their past four inside the conference and this is a matchup against an opponent that has already managed to beat them on their home court. 

Charleston has been one of the top sides in the CAA for a few years running now. It's a completely different side from last year. But, the Cougars have hit their stride and won't let one off-day take them off their game. Prior to that loss, COFC had won eight consecutive home games. Being at home mid-week always is a bonus. Give me the Cougars on Thursday. ML is also an option. 

Burns' Prediction: 82-72 COFC.

(#753) Stony Brook Seawolves @ (#754) Towson Tigers | UNDER | . 

Entering Thursday, Stony Brook is feeling great about itself. It's won three consecutive road games, while averaging only 67.7 PPG in away games this year. The Seawolves don't play fast and rank 284th in KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. Even though they do shoot well from 3pt land, the Seawolves will have to go against the nation's 73th best 3pt % defense this year in Towson. 

Talking about Towson, it is a bit of a weird team. It's been a decent season for the Tigers, with 13 wins in 25 games (above .500.) However, the scoring hasn't really been there. The Tigers average 69.4 PPG and play at the 343th fastest pace in the country out of 365 teams (via. KenPom as well.) Why do they have a winning record? Well, they have a top 100 defense and have allowed 67.2 PPG this season which ranks 28th among all teams. 

All signs points towards another low scoring affair. Hammer the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 65-58 Towson.

(#697) UAB Blazers @ (#698) Tulsa Golden Hurricane | OVER | . 

Even though UAB is a sizeable underdog for today's meeting, I do believe that the Blazers are going to be able to score. They are averaging a very respectable 81.4 PPG and absolutely dominates the glass. All of this while playing at the 73rd fastest pace according to KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. UAB managed to score 77 in the first meeting. Expect similar results in this one. 

For Tulsa, it's been one of the highest performing teams in the whole country so far. The Golden Hurricane have the 24th most efficient offense in the nation and has scored 90+ points in seven of it's 11 home games this year. They average 86.9 PPG this season. I expect tons of points on Wednesday after they combined for 176 in the first meeting. 

Burns' Prediction: 91-78 Tulsa.

(#692) Tulane Green Wave | ATS | . 

Who is the better team in this matchup? With the oddsmakers putting this line where they have, it makes me believe that they think Temple is. I don't believe so. The Owls come in with a 15-9 record, which is fairly solid. However, they've had a fairly easy schedule so far and the defense is nothing special whatsoever. Temple won its home game against Tulane by only three points. 

Talking about the Green Wave, they began the year very well. I know that it's been a struggle for them in American play so far. But, they still have plenty of time to turn things around before the conference tournament. Tulane is led by an excellent guard by the name of Rowan Brumbaugh. He's going to be the best player on the court. With home advantage, expect Tulane to get revenge. 

Burns' Prediction: 80-69 Tulane.