(#921) Texas Rangers @ (#922) Kansas City Royals | UNDER | . 

MacKenzie Gore (3-4, 4.23 ERA) vs. Seth Lugo (2-4, 3.91 ERA) . 

I know that both of these pitchers have had their struggles at times this season. However, this is a spot where I expect them both to shine. Yes, his latest outing was poor. But, Gore has allowed only eight runs over his past five outings. That's very solid work right there. He's already faced the Royals this season and went 6.1 shutout innings. 

On the other hand, Seth Lugo returns back at home where he's pitched consecutive QS's He's more than capable and pitched six innings against the Rangers in that same series, while allowing just a single earned run in that start. Give me the "under" in this encounter as the o/u line is simply way too high. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-1 Rangers.

(#973) Cleveland Guardians @ (#974) Texas Rangers | UNDER | . 

Joey Cantillo (4-2, 3.92 ERA) vs. Jacob DeGrom (4-4, 3.48 ERA) . 

While neither of these two starting pitchers would have "Cy Young Numbers," I do believe that both are definitely more than capable of dominating on any given day. Joey Cantillo has been phenomenal in day games so far this season. In those five games, he owns a 2.05 ERA & a .216 OBA. He's also been slightly stronger during this campaign when playing on the road. 

On the other hand, Jacob DeGrom also has elite numbers when pitching in day games. In only two starts this year in those games, he's got a 0.69 ERA. Not only that, but his home splits are nothing short of unbelievable. An ERA of 1.52 in five home games this season sees opponents hitting .152 against him. That's ridiculous. 

All in all, both of these pitchers are bound for a big performance tonight. I'm not too impressed with either lineup when it comes to hitting with power. Therefore, this should most definitely end up as a pitchers duel on Sunday afternoon. Hammer the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 3-1 Texas.

(#929) New York Mets @ (#930) Seattle Mariners | UNDER | . 

Jonah Tong (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Logan Gilbert (3-4, 3.69 ERA) . 

I know that Jonah Tong hasn't had much work so far this season. But, I do expect him to pitch whether he comes out of the bullpen again or starts this game on Tuesday. He's been excellent when he's pitched, yet to allow an earned run. Tong showed glimpses of excellence last year in his first season with the Mets. I expect more of that this evening. 

On the other hand, Logan Gilbert's stats aren't bad. But, he'd definitely like to improve on those numbers, especially the record part of it. The M's just haven't been as dominant as you'd expect and it's a large part due to the lack of offensive production. Both teams have had trouble hitting at times this year & therefore I see this one being low scoring. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-2 Mariners.

(#973) New York Yankees @ (#974) Athletics | UNDER | . 

Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.14 ERA) vs. J.T. Ginn (2-3, 3.19 ERA) . 

Yesterday's game saw plenty of runs in the opening few innings, until it cooled off in the later stages (until the 9th.) That game finished "over" the o/u line. Today, I'm expecting a lot less offensive success. Ryan Weathers will take the mound for the Yankees and he's been a big surprise to me. Coming off a 7 IP 0 ER performance, his numbers are quite excellent, and even better in road games. 

Now, this is a difficult place to pitch, as the long ball could be in play. But, outside of one bad showing when he allowed four, Weathers has allowed just four homers in the other nine starts this season. Ginn, on the other hand, is used to pitching here in Sacramento. He's allowed just two homers in five home starts this season. If & when the long ball stays limited, I see this one staying "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 4-2 Yankees.

(#977) Atlanta Braves @ (#978) Boston Red Sox | UNDER | . 

Spencer Strider (2-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Ranger Suarez (2-2, 2.40 ERA) . 

Even though I believe that both of these offenses could definitely breakout in this series, I'm expecting a lower scoring opening game of this three-game set. Not only does Strider have a perfect record so far. But, I also like him very much in this matchup. Boston's been horrific here at home at Fenway so far and are the last team remaining in the big leagues with single digit home wins (at this very moment.) 

Looking at the other side of things, Ranger Suarez has looked pretty dominant for the most part this season. Boston expected brilliance & he's been one of their lone bright spots on the year. Having allowed only a run in 13.2 innings pitched here in May so far, I believe that he's going to be great again here on Tuesday. Give me the "under" w/ this pitching matchup this evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-2 Braves.

(#915) Cleveland Guardians @ (#916) Detroit Tigers | UNDER | . 

Parker Messick (5-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. Keider Montero (2-3, 3.65 ERA) . 

Coming into this game, the Tigers are really struggling. As a matter of fact, they've lost 11 of their most recent 13 games since putting Tarik Skubal on the IL. That being said, I think that Keider Montero has been very solid. With a 0.99 WHIP, he's hardly allowing any baserunners and that's huge in the long run as a starting pitcher. I expect him to slow this Guardians lineup down. 

Cleveland will turn the ball over to its best pitcher so far this season in Parker Messick. Not only has he got incredible numbers overall, but he's been even more stellar in road contests this season. He's also got a WHIP below 1.00 and this is a chance to take on a struggling Tigers lineup here on Tuesday. Either team could win this game. But, I'm expecting little runs in this contest whoever edges out a victory. Hammer the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 4-2 Tigers.

(#903) Arizona Diamondbacks @ (#904) Colorado Rockies | OVER | . 

Michael Soroka (5-2, 3.53 ERA) vs. Michael Lorenzen (2-5, 6.54 ERA) . 

So far in this series, we haven't seen a high scoring battle. Yes, the first game had 10 runs. But, that's normal for a game here at Coors Field. Arizona will give the ball to Michael Soroka on Sunday. Even though he's been great this season, I do think that he's not as good as his numbers suggest. He's posted a 7.20 ERA in road games and his home ERA is most definitely not sustainable playing in this division. 

Michael Lorenzen will take the ball on the other side. He's simply not been good at all. Colorado also allows the worst opposing batting average in the entire MLB this season. Pair that with a bottom three ERA. Give me the "over" in the finale of this series on Sunday afternoon. This one should be high scoring. 

Burns' Prediction: 8-6 Diamondbacks.

(#979) San Francisco Giants @ (#980) Athletics | OVER | . 

Trevor McDonald (1-0, 2.92 ERA) vs. Luis Severino (2-4, 4.07 ERA) . 

While I do like what I've seen from both of these two starters so far this season, I also believe that this isn't going to be as low scoring as the ERA's make it look. McDonald gave up 11 baserunners against the Dodgers last time out, allowing three runs. Now, he's going to be forced to pitch in this "AAA" level ballpark. 

Luis Severino has made it clear that he doesn't like pitching here. He's avoided this ballpark so far in May, but now gets his first start of the month at home. With a 4.91 ERA here at home so far this year, I don't think he's going to enjoy being back here. Give me the "over." 

Burns' Prediction: 8-4 Giants.

(#863) Kansas City Royals @ (#864) Chicago White Sox | UNDER | . 

Kris Bubic (3-1, 3.50 ERA) vs. Anthony Kay (2-1, 4.89 ERA) . 

While neither of these two pitchers have necessarily been dominant starters this season, I've seen glimpses of great pitching from both of the two. What's helping Kris Bubic for this matchup is that he owns a jaw-dropping 2.04 ERA in 12 outings against the White Sox over his career. He might be 2-4 record wise. But, he's dominant against them, especially as of late, throwing consecutive seven inning starts while allowing no runs. 

Anthony Kay looked phenomenal in his last start against the Mariners. He went 5.0 innings and although there's a run for the Mariners on the scoresheet, he's going to take a performance like that every day of the week. Kay also went 5.2 innings against the Royals in April, and allowed non runs on just three hits. Give me the "under" in this pitching matchup on Thursday. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-1 Royals.

(#967) Kansas City Royals @ (#968) Chicago White Sox | UNDER | . 

Stephen Kolek (1-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. Erick Fedde (0-4, 3.79 ERA) . 

I expect this game to be much lower scoring than this total suggests on Tuesday. Not only is the wind expected to be blowing in. But, I believe that both of these starting pitchers are capable of having very strong outings, especially in a matchup like this. Looking at Stephen Kolek, he's made just one start this season. Although he allowed three runs in six innings (which was a quality start against CLE,) he allowed just four baserunners in that contest. Great for the WHIP. Erick Fedde, on the other hand, is much better than his record shows. He owns a 2.41 ERA here at home, allowing a .200 BA in those games. Against a KC lineup that's struggled for the majority of the season so far, this is a great chance to even improve those stats. Give me the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 4-1 Royals.

(#905) St. Louis Cardinals @ (#906) San Diego Padres | OVER | . 

Dustin May (3-3, 5.15 ERA) vs. Randy Vasquez (3-1, 3.20 ERA) . 

Dustin May hasn't been the same since his esophagus injury that he suffered back in 2024. Prior to then, he had some of the nastiest pitches in all of baseball despite limited action. Now, he's not quite as feared by the rest of the league and has been tossed around team to team over the past few seasons now. He did have a strong start last time out. But, back on the road, where he owns a 6.14 ERA this season, I expect another shaky outing from the 28 year old. 

On the other hand, Randy Vasquez is having a pretty solid year. However, he did just suffer his first loss of the season and hasn't looked great in consecutive starts now. In two starts a season ago against the Cardinals, Vasquez allowed six earned runs in eight innings of total work. Five of those runs came in the last meeting, which was the one here at Petco. I know that this is typically a lower scoring ballpark. But, the pitchers aren't great and I'm expecting quite a few players to cross home plate in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 7-4 Cardinals.

(#921) Seattle Mariners @ (#922) Chicago White Sox | UNDER | . 

Luis Castillo (0-3, 6.29 ERA) vs. Anthony Kay (1-1, 5.70 ERA) . 

I get that these two starters both have very high ERA's & bad numbers overall. That being said, I'm not too worried about numbers for pitchers quite yet in the season. We're only just over a month into the year and guys are just finding their rhythm at the moment. No, these aren't good starts for guys that are supposed to be key rotational figures for their respective ball club. But, this isn't the end of the world all that yet. 

Over his entire career, since 2017, Luis Castillo has been one of the most consistent arms in the big leagues. His worst ERA in a season has been 4.30 (in 2018.) and he's never gone 4.00 or above since then. Kay, on the other hand, posted a 1.74 ERA in 155.0 innings of work in Japan last year. I expect him to get on track here. This line is way too high. Give me the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 4-2 Mariners.

(#969) Cleveland Guardians @ (#970) Kansas City | UNDER | . 

Joey Cantillo (1-1, 3.67 ERA) vs. Cole Ragans (1-4, 5.29 ERA) . 

In this pitching matchup on Wednesday, I believe that we're going to see two starters absolutely dominate. Joey Cantillo's numbers don't look like anything too special. But, he's more than capable of pitching lights out against any opponent in the big leagues in my eyes. He's already faced the Royals this season & went 5.1 innings allowing only one earned run. 

On the other hand, Cole Ragans gets the nod. I had Ragans about a week and a half ago when he picked up his first win. Now, even though his numbers aren't good by any means, he's slowly improving them & this is a fantastic matchup for him against a struggling Guardians lineup. Both teams have issues offensively, ranking in the bottom half of the MLB in scoring. I'll go "under" here. 

Burns' Prediction: 4-1 Guardians.

(#905) Milwaukee Brewers @ (#906) Washington Nationals | OVER | . 

Jacob Misiorowski (1-2, 3.31 ERA) vs. Jake Irvin (1-3, 4.85 ERA) . 

I do really like what I've seen from Jacob Misiorowski so far this season, despite the losing record. However, he's running into a very hot Nationals lineup that's scored 19 runs over the past two games. Washington doesn't have as many superstars as say maybe Milwaukee. But, the Nats can sure hit and are averaging 5.5 runs per game which is the T-2 in the MLB. 

On the other hand, Milwaukee also ranks in the top five in runs per game at 5.1. Yes, the Brewers pitching has been quite strong and limiting runs. But, I expect Washington to be able to score some here. Irvin's been rocked a ton against the Brewers as well. Give me the "over" on Friday afternoon. 

Burns' Prediction: 8-6 Brewers.

(#973) Seattle Mariners @ (#974) Minnesota Twins | UNDER | . 

Logan Gilbert (1-3, 4.36 ERA) vs. Joe Ryan (2-2, 3.90 ERA) . 

Neither of these pitchers have exactly been perfect so far, and both are not pitching as well as I expect them to this season. That being said, I think that this is the perfect chance to play on both of them to have a great performance. Looking at this matchup, the Twins were really able to hit Castillo last night. I don't expect that to be the case vs. Gilbert, who has dominated the Twins in 4/5 of his career starts against them. 

On the other hand, Joe Ryan owns an excellent 2.45 ERA at home this season & he's definitely going to want to make up for his disaster last time out this season. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in SLG % so that should help both of these pitchers as well. I've got the "under" in this baseball game. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-1 Mariners.

(#979) Seattle Mariners @ (#980) St. Louis Cardinals | UNDER | . 

Emerson Hancock (2-1, 2.83 ERA) vs. Michael McGreevy (1-2, 3.29 ERA) .

I don't think that he's being talked about as much as he should. But, through the opening month of the season, I believe that Emerson Hancock looks like one of the premier arms in the entire big leagues, yet alone the American League. With a 0.87 WHIP, his stuff practically looks un-hittable at times. In this matchup, even though St. Louis has been solid, I expect him to dominate, given the ball-park. 

Over the past three years, Busch Stadium has been one of the most pitcher friendly ball-parks in the MLB. That's why Michael McGreevy owns a 1.64 ERA here at home so far this season. Both of these pitchers are fantastic & I expect these lineups to have trouble cracking either of them in this one. Expect a pitchers duel. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-2 Mariners.

(#919) Athletics @ (#920) Texas Rangers | UNDER | . 

Jeffrey Springs (3-1, 3.34 ERA) vs. MacKenzie Gore (2-2, 4.15 ERA) . 

These two pitchers faced up against each other just under two weeks ago in Sacramento. While that's an extremely difficult stadium to pitch well in, being in a AAA ballpark, both guys did a tremendous job of limiting runs. As a matter of fact, the game finished with three total runs. Now, in a much more pitcher friendly ballpark, I'm expecting both of these guys to show up for their teams once again. 

Springs currently holds a WHIP below 1.00 which is every pitchers dream. When you're doing that as a regular starter, you're going to have a strong season. Gore has been slightly worse. But, I love what he's been able to do at home this season w/ a 2.45 ERA. Give me the "under" on Saturday evening. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-1 Rangers.

(#913) Kansas City Royals @ (#914) New York Yankees | UNDER | . 

Michael Wacha (2-0, 0.43 ERA) vs. Cam Schlittler (2-1, 2.49 ERA) . 

Through a few starts, this might actually be the best version that we've ever seen of Michael Wacha. He owns a 0.71 WHIP along with his fantastic 0.43 ERA. If we look at the numbers, Wacha has improved drastically over his time in the big leagues. He hasn't had an ERA above 3.90 in any of the past four seasons which is great for any pitcher. 

On the other hand, Cam Schlittler has now become the best young pitcher on this Yankees pitching staff. He had an elite rookie campaign, posting a 2.96 ERA in 14 starts last season and has started off this year just as good, if not better. A strikeout machine, Schlittler should be able to dominate against a team that is averaging 3.42 runs per game which is bottom five in the big leagues this season. 

Talking about scoring, both teams have struggled to put runs up so far, considering how good they are expected to be. NYY is averaging 4.53 runs per game this season and even though that seems like quite a bit, that's not even top 10 at the moment. I expect a pitchers duel to take place here today. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-1 Yankees.

(#975) Cleveland Guardians @ (#976) St. Louis Cardinals | UNDER | . 

Joey Cantillo (1-0, 2.46 ERA) vs. Michael McGreevy (1-1, 2.16 ERA) . 

Over the years, I've leaned towards the "under" in most games involving the Guardians. It's not that they don't have the ability to score a ton of runs. But, they normally have really solid pitching and have a contact approach offensively, leading to more base hits and not as many home-runs. Last year, I won 60% of the time doing so. This year, I expect to use a similar style of approach, depending on the situation and pitching matchup. 

Both of these two pitchers have been great so far, with ERA's below 2.50. Cantillo is an up and coming 26yr old Hawaiian left-hander with a ton of strikeout ability. He's yet to allow more than two runs in a start and Cleveland's won every time he's stepped on the mound. On the other hand, the same could be said about Michael McGreevy. He's a 25yr old right hander that does not issue walks. He's also got a 0.78 WHIP through three starts. 

All in all, I'm expecting a low scoring contest here on Tuesday. Both of these pitchers have more to prove and get the opportunity to shine against each other here in this one. Give me the "under" as my #1 MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-2 Guardians.

(#915) Houston Astros @ (#916) Seattle Mariners | OVER | . 

Lance McCullers Jr (1-0, 3.27 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (0-0. 2.79 ERA) . 

Even though on paper this is a good pitching matchup between two capable starters, I believe that we're going to see quite a few runs here this evening. The Astros have been one of the highest scoring teams in baseball. Averaging over six runs per game, they are ranked 2nd, only behind the Dodgers right now. 

Houston has been struggling on the pitching side of things though, allowing over six runs per game itself. That's good for 2nd worst in the big leagues as well. Seattle's had some issues with the scoring itself. But, this could be a game where it explodes given that Lance allowed four runs in 2.2 innings in his outing @Seattle last year. I've got the "over" in this one. 

Burns' Prediction: 6-4 Astros.

(#975) Chicago White Sox @ (#974) Kansas City Royals | UNDER | . 

Davis Martin (2-0, 2.46 ERA) vs. Kris Bubic (1-1, 4.09 ERA) . 

I've been very impressed with what I've seen from Davis Martin so far and even though I like the Royals to win this game, I do think that Martin is going to make it hard for KC to score many runs once again. He's slowly improved each and every season so far in the big leagues and definitely could take another step forward this year if he continues this pace. Considering the Royals only scored seven runs in the series vs. Cleveland to begin this week, and got shutout yesterday, they'll likely have trouble again today. Bubic has been a top arm in the AL over the past couple of years and that shouldn't stop this year. He owned a tremendous 2.55 ERA last season and perhaps could even match that this year. He's faced CWS 11 times over his career so far and despite the 1-4 record against them, he owns a 2.30 ERA and that includes going seven strong shutout innings against them last year. Give me the "under" here on Friday. 

Burns' Prediction: 4-2 Royals.

(#955) Minnesota Twins @ (#956) Kansas City Royals | UNDER | . 

Taj Bradley (0-0, 2.08 ERA) vs. Cole Ragans (0-1, 9.00 ERA) . 

I know that the Twins looked awful on Wednesday and lost 13-9 in the second game of this series. But, I also do know that every single day of the MLB season holds a different challenge to another. Bradley is still a young, talented arm and just because Joe Ryan didn't perform the way Minnesota would have liked, it doesn't mean that Bradley isn't going to have a good game. Last season, Bradley pitched much better in road games for whatever reason. He looked fantastic against the Orioles and has great strikeout numbers. Cole Ragans didn't have the best of starts in his first outing this season. But, the Royals ace is definitely going to be excited for this matchup on Thursday afternoon. Ragans owns a 2-2 record & a 1.85 ERA against the Twins in six career appearances. This is a rebuilding team with lots still to learn. I expect these pitchers to both hold their own and this one to stay below the number on Thursday. Hammer the "under." 

Burns' Prediction: 4-2 Royals.

(#919) Texas Rangers @ (#920) Philadelphia Phillies | UNDER | . 

Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) . 

After dominance from both of these pitchers in 2025, I'm expecting both to have strong campaigns once again in 2026. Texas isn't expected to be as strong, losing guys like Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia offensively. But, I do expect the pitching still to be at a very high level with Eovaldi, DeGrom & Gore. With a 11-3 record & a 1.73 ERA/0.85 WHIP a year ago, expect Eovaldi to look sharp in the opener. 

Philadelphia's got a potent lineup and it was the team that went out and grabbed Adolis Garcia from the Rangers. However, the Phillies got locked down by last year's opening day starter for the Nats, McKenzie Gore (6.0 innings, 13 K's, 1 hit allowed.) Now, although they managed to torch the bullpen of Washington in that game, it could take them a while for the bats to wake up in this one too. 

Cristopher Sanchez went 13-5 last season with a 2.50 ERA & a 1.06 WHIP. Those are phenomenal numbers considering that he took the ball every five days and started 32 games for the Phils. Both pitchers are more than capable of pitching very well & I'm expecting this first game to be low scoring throughout. Hammer the "under" on Opening Day. 

Burns' Prediction: 3-1 Phillies.

(#905) Toronto Blue Jays @ (#906) New York Yankees | UNDER | . 

Louis Varland (3-3, 2.02 ERA) vs. Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96 ERA) . 

Despite losing Game 3, the Blue Jays most definitely still are the favorites to win this series up two games to one. That being said, they are once again the underdogs on the road in this one. Louis Varland has already pitched in all three games of this series, so he's likely not to go very long and leave it to the bullpen. However, I expect him to do a good job in his time in there and let the rest of the guys follow his lead. 

On the other hand, I really liked what I saw from Schlittler in his first start back in the Wildcard Series. He was brilliant in that elimination game and I expect him to be strong again on Wednesday. Both pitchers have tremendous stats on the season. Expect this Game 4 to finish with less than eight runs. 

Burns' Prediction: 4-2 Blue Jays.