15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-6 in their last 23 games overall with 15 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season.  They will be highly motivated for a victory off two consecutive losses, including an upset loss as -305 favorites in Game 1 to the Reds yesterday.

The Cincinnati Reds are a mess right now.  They have gone 3-12 in their last 15 games overall.  A big reason for their struggles is injuries up and down their lineup as they are struggling to score runs.  They have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 11 of those 15 games, including 2 runs or fewer in seven of those.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mount tonight behind James Paxton, who is 5-0 with a 2.58 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in three home starts.  Paxton held the Reds to one run in 5 innings in his lone career start against them last season.

Frankie Montas is 2-3 with a 4.20 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three road starts, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 24 base runners in 12 1/3 innings away from home.  Montas is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 28-7 in their last 35 games off a loss by 4 runs or more and outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Reds/Dodgers OVER 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-6 in their last 23 games overall with 15 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season.  They face a Cincinnati Reds team that is heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in four of their last five games.

Frankie Montas is 2-3 with a 4.20 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three road starts, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 24 base runners in 12 1/3 innings away from home.  Montas is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.

James Paxton is very fortunate to have a 2.58 ERA this season when you consider he has a 1.41 WHIP and has already allowed 24 walks in 38 1/3 innings with only 22 K's.  His stuff isn't very great, and he will get hit hard soon.

The Dodgers are 13-2 OVER in home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -105

The Milwaukee Brewers have one of the most underrated lineups in the big leagues.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have the rest advantage over the Houston Astros after having yesterday off.  They also have a massive advantage on the mound and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Freddy Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts this season with 58 K's in 44 2/3 innings and only 4 homers allowed.  He'll be opposed by one of the worst starters in baseball in Hunter Brown, who is 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Brown has already allowed 27 earned runs and 60 base runners in 27 1/3 innings.

Milwaukee is 7-0 in Friday games this season.  The Brewers are 6-0 in their last six road games against AL West opponents.  Bet the Brewers Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Braves OVER 8

The Atlanta Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game despite disappointing seasons thus far for many of their top hitters.  It's only a matter of time before they start raking consistently.  The Padres are hitting .282 and scoring 5.4 runs per game on the road this season.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own tonight.  Matt Waldron is the worst starter for the Padres, going 1-5 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in eight starts.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.

Max Fried is getting too much respect from the books here.  He is 3-1 with a 3.57 ERA in eight starts this season, but 1-0 with a 4.73 ERA in two home starts.  Fried allowed 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 6 innings of an 11-6 loss to the Padres in his last home start against them.

San Diego is a perfect 11-0 OVER off three consecutive division games this season.  Fried is a perfect 11-0 OVER in his 11 career Friday night home starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Guardians -115

The Minnesota Twins were just outscored 14-1 in their 3-game sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees.  They had to play yesterday while the Cleveland Guardians had Thursday off, giving them a big rest advantage.

The Guardians also have the advantage on the mound today and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Triston McKenzie has posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  McKenzie has owned the Twins, posting a 1.42 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing just 3 earned runs in 19 innings with 23 K's.

Simeon Woods-Richardson is getting way too much respect from the books today.  He just allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings to the Blue Jays in his last start.  He has gotten to face Toronto, Seattle and the White Sox in his only three starts this season, which are three of the worst offenses in baseball.  This is a big step up in class for him here tonight.  Bet the Guardians Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Yankees OVER 7.5

This total is too low tonight for these two offenses up against these two suspect starting pitchers inside hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.  I'll gladly back the OVER in a game the Yankees are capable of covering the total on their own.

The Yankees have scored a total of 24 runs in their last four games overall for an average of 6.0 runs per game.  They should feast on Mike Clevinger, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.

Nestor Cortes is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  He is 1-4 with a 4.03 ERA in nine starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.10 ERA in his last three.  The White Sox are heating up at the plate which is a big reason they have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pirates/Cubs NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

Kyle Hendricks should not be pitching in a game with a total of 7.5 or less.  Hendricks is 0-3 with a 10.04 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in six starts this season while allowing 29 earned runs and 9 homers in 26 innings.

Paul Skenes is the top prospect in baseball which is why this total is so low.  But with the hype comes expectations that are tough for him to live up to.  We saw that in his major league debut against the Cubs on May 11th.  He allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings.  Now the Cubs get to see him for the 2nd time in a week, which is to their advantage.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in the last nine meetings between the Pirates and Cubs with 9 or more combined runs in all nine meetings, including 11 or more combined runs in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-145)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall with 15 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season.

The Cincinnati Reds are a mess right now.  They have gone 2-12 in their last 14 games overall.  A big reason for their struggles is injuries up and down their lineup as they are struggling to score runs.  They have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 11 of those 14 games, including 2 runs or fewer in seven of those.

Tyler Glasnow is among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young this year.  Glasnow is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.86 WHIP while allowing just 16 earned runs and 49 base runners in 57 innings with a whopping 73 K's.

He'll be opposed by Brent Suter, who will be making his first start of the season for the Reds, who will be making this a bullpen game.  Suter is 0-2 with a 17.34 ERA and 3.43 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 9 earned runs and 16 base runners in 4 2/3 innings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -2

We are getting the Minnesota Timberwolves at a discount tonight after losing the last three games of this series.  This has been the most resilient team in the NBA this season as that was actually the first time they have lost three consecutive games all season.  I trust their resolve here to get the job done in Game 6 at home and force a Game 7.

Mike Conley Jr. was a surprise scratch in Game 5 with an Achilles injury.  I think they played it cautious knowing their season wasn't on the line and that they would have a Game 6 at home.  Conley was present a shootaround today.  He makes all the difference for this team and takes a lot of pressure off Anthony Edwards Jr.  They need him to run the offense, space the floor and his elite defense on the other end.

The Nuggets can't keep up this torrid shooting against the best defense in the NBA in the Timberwolves.  They shot 53.7% in Game 3, 57% in Game 4 and 55% in Game 5.  That includes a combined 36-of-77 (46.8%) from 3-point range in those three wins.  They are due some negative shooting regression to say the least.

Denver is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off three or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 46-28 ATS in its last 74 games when revenging a loss.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Phillies OVER 8

The Philadelphia Phillies are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  The New York Mets have scored at least 4 runs in eight of their last 12 games overall.  I expect both teams to get to 4-plus runs against these two suspect starting pitchers.

Jose Quintana is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with an 8.19 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in four road starts.  Quintana has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies.

Taijaun Walker is 3-0 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in three starts this season, already allowing 4 homers in 18 2/3 innings.  Walker allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start against the Mets.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder showed they weren't too young and inexperienced for the moment in Game 4.  Trailing 2-1 in the series and down double-digits in the 2H, the Thunder easily could have folded.  Instead they fought back and won 100-96 to tie the series at 2-2 to regain home-court advantage.

That type of win is going to give the Thunder a ton of confidence moving forward, especially the way they did it.  They did it with defense mostly holding the Mavericks to 96 points.  They won the game despite shooting 38% from the field and 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put the team on his back down the stretch.

I can guarantee you the Thunder will shoot much better as a team in Game 5 at home.  Expect much better production from role players, and for Shai to do his thing.  Their defense will be there as well, and it will be a raucous atmosphere for Game 5 with these fans excited about this team and their potential to win a title.  I love how they play as a team and the entire team took the postgame interview in Game 4.  You can tell they just love playing for each other.

Luke Doncic is not 100% and he and Kyrie Irving both had poor games in Game 4 combining for just 27 points.  No team in the NBA defends Doncic and Irving as well as the Thunder, and the Mavericks just don't have the role players to beat them.  PJ Washington has done his part but it's unlikely he tops 20 points for a 4th consecutive game.

Dallas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after a combined score of 205 points or fewer.  Oklahoma City is 36-9 SU & 29-16 ATS at home this season.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +160

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory after getting shut out by the Braves for a 2nd consecutive day.  They will want to avoid the sweep, and I expect them to finally get their bats going today.

I also expect Javier Assad to shut down the Braves.  Assad has the best ERA in all of baseball since last June.  He is 3-0 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight starts this season.

Charlie Morton is off to a good start for the Braves and he's a notorious slow starter.  But Morton is 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 18 career starts against Chicago.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-4 loss to the Cubs in his lone start against them last season.

The Cubs are 10-3 (+11.5 Units) in Assad's last 13 starts as an underdog, including 7-1 (+8.8 Units) in his last eight starts as a dog of +125 to +175.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +118

The Tampa Bay Rays just got several key hitters back from injury.  They have gone 7-4 in their last 11 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in seven of those 11 games.  The Boston Red Sox have several hitters sitting due to injury and are really struggling at the plate.  They are averaging 2.6 runs per game over their last seven games.

Tanner Houck has never beaten the Rays, going 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 25 base runners in 13 innings in those three starts.  The Rays should stay hot at the plate against him tonight.

Taj Bradley was dominant in his first start this season.  He held the Yankees to one earned run in 6 innings with 7 K's in a 2-0 loss on May 10th.  I expect him to shut down the Red Sox tonight.

Boston is 7-19 in its last 26 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The Rays are 24-10 in their last 34 meetings with the Red Sox.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City Royals +135

The Kansas City Royals are one of the most improved teams in baseball this season.  They are 26-18 and grossly undervalued.  They should not be +135 underdogs to the Seattle Mariners today.

Speaking of undervalued, Kansas City starter Alec Marsh is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has been dominant in his last three starts, going 1-0 with a 0.59 ERA and 0.98 WHIP while allowing just one earned run in 15 1/3 innings.

Bryan Woo will be making his just 2nd start of the season.  He pitched 4 1/3 shutout innings against the lowly Oakland A's in his first start and will be on a pitch count again, meaning the Mariners will have to dip into their bullpen early.

The Royals are 6-0 (+7.3 Units) in Marsh's six starts this season.  Kansas City is 19-7 against AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +4.5

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS and I fully expect the Minnesota Timberwolves to go on the road and pull the outright upset over the Nuggets tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Nuggets got a 3-day break to regroup following losing the first two games of this series at home.  That break was huge, and they made some adjustments plus shot the lights out the last two games.  They aren't going to keep shooting it this well, and the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression.

The Nuggets shot 53.7% from the field and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3 in Game 3 and 57% and 13-of-29 (44.8%) from 3 in Game 4.  Aaron Gordon shot 11-of-12 from the field in Game 4 while three bench players in Braun, Holiday and Jackson combined for make 6-of-9 from 3.  None of those players are going to shoot it as well again in Game 5.

Everyone outside of Anthony Edwards played pretty poorly in Game 4.  I expect him to be dominant again and to also get some help.  His teammates shot a combined 6-of-20 (30%) from 3 in Game 4.  Expect more from Towns and Alexander-Walker in particular in Game 5.

Minnesota is 11-1 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Timberwolves have been very resilient and I think they are ready for this moment in this critical game with the series tied at 2-2.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +145

The value on the Kansas City Royals is too good to pass up tonight.  The Royals are one of the most improved teams in baseball at 25-18 this season and have been underrated all season.  They continue to be as +145 underdogs to the Seattle Mariners tonight.

Michael Wacha has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the last couple seasons.  He held the Angels to 2 earned runs in 6 innings of a 10-4 victory in his last start.  Wacha fired 6 shutout innings in a 10-3 victory over the Mariners in his last start against them last season.

Logan Gilbert is getting way too much respect for the Mariners tonight.  He just allowed 8 earned runs in 4 innings of an 11-1 loss to the Twins in his last start.  Gilbert has posted a 5.27 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City, allowing 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 27 1/3 innings.

Kansas City is 18-7 vs. AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season.  Wacha's teams are 18-5 in his last 23 starts vs. AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  Wacha's teams are 24-7 in his last 31 starts following a loss.  The Mariners are 2-7 (-9.4 Units) in Gilbert's last nine home starts in the first half of the season.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on A's/Astros OVER 8.5

This total is too low tonight with these two offenses red hot at the plate right now.  The OVER is 9-1 in A's last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 games.  The A's are scoring 6.8 runs per game in their last 10 games.  The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six games overall including 9 runs in Game 1 last night.

JP Sears is 3-2 with a 4.20 ERA in eight starts this season.  Sears is 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 1/3 innings.  Sears is 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA in three career starts against Houston.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Astros.

Ronel Blanco is getting too much respect because he threw a no-hitter earlier this season.  Blanco has vcome back down to reality of late going 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  Both starters have the propensity to give up the long ball.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +178

The value on the Chicago Cubs is too good to pass up tonight. After losing Game 1 by a final of 2-0 last night, I expect them to bounce back and pull off the upset victory in Game 2 tonight.

Jameson Taillon is 3-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing just 3 earned runs in 24 innings.  He is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Taillon is 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta as well.

Chris Sale is having his best season in years at 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven starts this season.  But I doubt he can keep up this pace.  Plus, the Cubs thrive against southpaws, scoring 6.0 runs per game this season against left-handed starters.

Taillon's teams are 25-17 (+15.7 Units) in his 42 career starts as a road underdog.  Taillon's teams are 12-1 (+11.6 Units) in his last 13 starts after allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Mavericks TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fully healthy and highly motivated for a victory after losing their first two games of these playoffs.  They will make some good adjustments tonight to play Holmgren and Williams together more that will help them protect the rim and rebound.  Josh Giddey's minutes will be restricted, and Isaiah Joe will likely get more minutes which is their optimal lineup.

Luka Doncic is clearly nursing a knee injury and seems to get hurt in every game.  He is far from 100%.  Without him at 100%, the Mavericks aren't better than the Thunder.  PJ Washington has been dynamite from 3 the last two games and that's not going to last either.  I fully expect the Thunder to take Game 4 tonight and even this series.

Oklahoma City is 53-33 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Monday.

20* AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on A's/Astros OVER 8.5

This total is too low for a game involving these two terrible starting pitchers up against these two lineups.  The OVER is 8-1 in A's last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  The A's are scoring 7.3 runs per game in their last nine games.  The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in four of their last five games overall.

Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season and it's amazing the Astros are throwing him back out there again tonight.  Arrighetti is 0-4 with an 8.43 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 20 earned runs and 43 base runners in 21 1/3 innings.

Ross Stripling is 1-6 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing 24 earned runs and 66 base runners in 42 innings.  He is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in three road starts as well.

Houston is 22-4 OVER in its last 26 Monday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Orioles OVER 7.5

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the most potent lineups in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  The Toronto Blue Jays have scored 4.7 runs per game in their last seven games and are heating up at the plate.  Temps are expected to be in the 70's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Baltimore tonight that will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket.

The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own.  They should crush Jose Berrios, who allowed 8 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-1 loss at Philadelphia in his last start.  Berrios allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings to the Orioles in his last start against them.

Corbin Burnes has been solid for the Orioles this season at 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA in eight starts.  But this total is so low because he is starting.  Burnes allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 7 2/3 innings to the Blue Jays in his lone career start against them.  The ball will be flying out of the park tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Nuggets/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -2

Anthony Edwards admitted he and his teammates did not show up for the fight in Game 3.  He guaranteed they will be ready for Game 4, and I believe him.  The Timberwolves will regain control of this series with a win and cover at home in Game 4.

The Nuggets shot 53.7% from the floor in Game 3 and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range.  The Timberwolves shot 43.7% from the floor and 10-of-33 (30.3%) from 3.  Denver is due some negative shooting regression, while Minnesota is due some positive shooting regression.

Give the Nuggets credit for showing championship metal in Game 3 when they easily could have folded.  But they are dealing with injuries to Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson.  Minnesota is fully healthy and the better team when that's the case.

The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  Minnesota is 11-0 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  They have been a very resilient team in this spot.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Braves/Mets ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

The Atlanta Braves are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season while the New York Mets are scoring 4.3 runs per game.  After both offenses were held in check in the first two meetings in this series, I expect them both to have a lot of success at the plate tonight in Game 3.

Bryce Elder is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in three starts for the Braves this season.  He allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 11 base runners in 3 1/3 innings to the Dodgers in his last start.  Elder has allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 1/3 innings in two career starts against New York.

Luis Severino is getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Rays in his last start on May 5th.  Severino allowed 5 runs, 3 earned and 2 homers in 4 innings to the Braves in his last start against them last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -123

The Kansas City Royals have big advantages on the mound and at the plate today over the Los Angeles Angels and should be bigger favorites as a result.  The Angels are in a world of hurt without Mike Trout and a few other key bats in their lineup.

Seth Lugo has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the past couple seasons.  Lugo is 5-1 with a 1.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in three road starts.  Lugo held the Angels to one earned run in 6 innings of a 5-3 victory in his lone career start against them last season.

Patrick Sandoval is 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in eight starts for the Angels this season.  The Royals are scoring 4.6 runs per game overall including 4.6 runs per game against left-handed starters.  The Angels are scoring just 3.9 runs per game against right-handed starters.

The Angels are 1-11 in Sandoval's last 12 home starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5 runs.  The Angels are 1-11 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  Lugo's teams are 21-4 in his last 25 starts against teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game.  The Angels are 1-12 in Sandoval's last 13 starts against good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

20* Knicks/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Indiana -5.5

The New York Knicks are running out of gas.  They played their starters big minutes all season and even bigger minutes in the playoffs.  They paid the price with the injury to OG Anunoby that kept him out in Game 3 and likely will keep him out in Game 4 as well.  Jalen Brunson is playing through injury, and the Knicks are forced to give guys like McBride and Burks minutes off the bench that they probably do not deserve.

Give the Knicks credit for fighting hard in Game 3 and only losing by 5 in a valiant effort.  But now this is a very tough turnaround for the Knicks with only one day off in between games and having to play an early Sunday afternoon game.  The Pacers are the fresher team with one of the deepest benches in the league, so this situation really favors them.

Plus, the Knicks lost by 5 despite shooting 14-of-27 (51.9%) from 3-point range in Game 3.  DiVencenzo shot 7-of-11 himself.  They aren't going to shoot that well again, and as a result it should be a blowout in the Pacers' favor.

If you have watched every game of this series like I have, you could easily make a case that the Pacers could be up 3-0 in this series instead of down 2-1.  They are arguably the better team, and with the situation and injuries in their favor, I anticipate a blowout victory in Game 4 to even this series.  Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Pirates OVER 8.5

The Pirates beat the Cubs 10-9 yesterday for 19 combined runs.  Both teams should stay hot at the plate against these two awful starting pitchers.  Plus, there are expected to be double-digit winds blowing out to center this afternoon in Pittsburgh to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Kyle Hendricks has been arguably the worst starter in baseball.  He is 0-3 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 28 earned runs, 8 homers and 44 base runners in 21 innings.

Bailey Falter is 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA in seven starts for the Pirates, allowing 7 homers in 37 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against two of the worst offenses in baseball in Colorado at home and Oakland on the road.  Falter is 0-3 with a 10.12 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in three career starts against Chicago, allowing 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 10 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -118

The Baltimore Orioles have a big advantage at the plate today over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season, while the Diamondbacks are scoring just 3.8 runs per game against right-handed starters.

I also love what I've seen from Dean Kremer, especially of late.  Kremer is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 18 1/3 innings with 20 K's.

Zac Gallen is getting too much respect from the books here.  He has huge home/road splits in his career and that's the case again this season.  Gallen is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in four road starts this season, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 21 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-5 loss to the Orioles in his lone career start against them last season.

The Orioles are 18-4 in Kremer's last 22 home starts.  Bet the Orioles Sunday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Dodgers OVER 8.5

Both offenses were red hot coming into Game 1 of this series last night.  Tyler Glasnow and Michael King held both offenses in check.  But it will be a different story tonight as these offenses light up these two below average starters in Game 2.

Matt Waldron is 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.56 WHIP In seven starts for the Padres this season, including 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in three home starts.  He has allowed 22 earned runs and 53 base runners in 34 innings this season.

James Paxton is very fortunate to have a 3.06 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in his six starts this season.  He is getting away with walking a lot of batters as he has 24 walks in 32 1/3 innings with only 18 K's.  He won't be so fortunate tonight.  Paxton allowed 11 base runners in 5 innings in his lone start against the Padres earlier this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -157

The Baltimore Orioles have big advantages at the plate and on the mound today over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  They should be bigger favorites as a result.

John Means has been dominant for the Orioles when healthy.  Well, he is back to full strength now and proved it in his first start of the season on May 4th, pitching 7 shutout innings with 8 K's against the Cincinnati Reds.

Ryne Nelson is 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 33 base runners in 20 2/3 innings.  He just returned from the IL to allow 4 earned runs in 5 innings to the Padres on May 5th.  Bet the Orioles Saturday.

20* Thunder/Mavericks ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3

The Dallas Mavericks responded in a big way in Game 2 by pulling the 119-110 upset as 5-point underdogs in Oklahoma City.  They had just about everything go right for them in that game, and there's a lot of reasons I believe the Thunder return the favor in Game 3 and regain home-court advantage in this series.

The Mavericks shot 18-of-37 (48.6%) from 3 in Game 2 and were still life and death with the Thunder.  They got big games from role players in PJ Washington who scored 29 points and made 7-of-11 from 3.  Tim Hardaway Jr. had 17 points and a bunch of clutch shots to stop Thunder runs.  Those two aren't going to be nearly as good in Game 3.

Luka Doncic had a big 1st quarter and finished 5-of-8 from 3 after previously struggling from distance in these playoffs.  But he is banged up and far from 100%, and without him at 100% it's a huge blow.  Kyrie Irving is struggling to get good shots because the Thunder are defending him very well, and Lu Dort defends Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA.

This is a very quick turnaround from Thursday with tip set for 3:30 EST Saturday afternoon in Dallas.  Well, the Thunder are the much deeper team and they are fully healthy and better equipped to handle this short turnaround.  Doncic and Irving both played more than 41 minutes Thursday and I think the quick turnaround hurts them because they are not very deep.  Doncic and company won't have much left in the tank for this one, and they won't be able to match their Game 3 shooting performance.

Oklahoma City is 53-32 ATS in its last 85 games as a road underdog.  Plays on any team (OKC) - revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite are 171-106 (61.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder in Game 3 Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are rolling right now going 14-2 in their last 16 games overall with 12 wins by two runs or more.  They have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the San Diego Padres that should have them winning this game by two runs or more.

Tyler Glasnow is among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young award.  He is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 innings with 29 K's.  The Dodgers are 7-1 in his eight starts this season with six wins by two runs or more.

I'll gladly fade Michael King, who has already allowed 9 homers in 38 2/3 innings this season.  He is 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in two home starts, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 1/3 innings.  King faced the Dodgers earlier this season on April 12th, allowing 7 runs, 4 earned, and 4 homers in 5 innings.  He will get lit up again tonight.

San Diego is 2-10 in home games in night games this season and getting outscored by 3.0 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -107

The Kansas City Royals have advantages on the mound and at the plate over the Los Angeles Angels tonight.  I like the value we are getting on the Royals at basically even money in Game 2 of this series off their 10-4 win in Game 1.

Alec Marsh takes a big step down in class here against an Angels lineup that is in a world of hurt right now without Mike Trout and a few others due to injury.  Marsh is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts this season.  He has pitched 10 shutout innings in his last two starts against Baltimore and Toronto.

I'll gladly fade Griffin Canning, who is 1-4 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 26 earned runs and 6 homers in 35 innings.  Canning is 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in three home starts this season.  

The Angels are 1-10 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  The Royals are 16-5 against AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season.  Kansas City is 11-2 against teams with a bad bullpen with a 4.70 ERA or worse this season.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110)

The Philadelphia Phillies are the hottest team in baseball going 18-4 in their last 22 games overall with 13 wins by two runs or more.  I fully expect them to win this game against the Miami Marlins by multiple runs tonight.  The Marlins have the second-worst record in baseball this season at 10-29.  They have gone 4-12 in their last 16 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more.

Ranger Suarez is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in seven starts this season allowing just 9 earned runs and 34 base runners in 47 innings.  The Phillies are 7-0 in his seven starts this season with six wins by 3 runs or more.  Suarez is 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA in seven career starts against Miami.

Trevor Rogers is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 23 earned runs and 58 base runners in 33 2/3 innings.  The Marlins are 0-8 in Rogers' last eight starts with all eight losses coming by two runs or more.  Rogers is 1-5 with a 6.70 ERA in nine career starts against the Phillies.

The Phillies are 13-2 in Suarez's last 15 road starts in the first half of the season.  The Marlins are 0-10 in Rogers' last 10 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs and getting outscored by 4.9 runs per game in this spot.  Miami is 2-17 in Rogers' last 19 starts off a loss.  Philadelphia is 8-0 in Suarez's last eight starts against an NL team with a .245 batting average or worse.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Friday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

I grabbed the opener at -4.5 on the Pacers as soon as this line came out after Game 2 concluded Wednesday night.  I did so with the anticipation that the line would move toward the Pacers considering all the injuries the Knicks are dealing with right now.  So hopefully long-term clients grabbed the best line they could find early.

This line has ballooned to Pacers 7/-7.5 as of Thursday.  It would still be a 25* up to -6, but a 20* at anything higher.  I think the Pacers win this game in a blowout and likely cover all numbers given the spot and the injuries to the Knicks.

The Knicks were already short-handed without Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic.  Now OG Anunoby suffered a hamstring injury in Game 2 and sat out the 4th quarter.  Chances are he'll sit out Game 3, too.  Anunoby has been the key to their success since the trade and had 28 points in the first three quarters.  Jalen Brunson sat out the 2nd quarter with an injured foot, but returned in the 2H to lead the comeback victory from double-digits down in Game 2.  He's not 100% and the Knicks could even elect to rest him in Game 3, though that's unlikely.

Tom Thibodeu is going to be forced to give McBride, Achiuwa and Burks more minutes than he wants to.  I think the Knicks will be satisfied with the fact that they held serve at home by coming up clutch in the final minutes of both Game 1 and Game 2, but also getting a lot of help from the refs.  I think the Knicks will have a letdown in Game 3, while we get a max effort from the Pacers knowing they are not out of this series with all the injuries to the Knicks.  Plus, they will likely get the benefit of the whistle in Game 3 at home due to all the negative publicity the refs have received for their favoritism of the Knicks in the first two games.

The fact of the matter is the Pacers are every bit as good as the Knicks and easily could have won both games in New York.  They just didn't execute late and didn't get any help from the refs, either.  Their depth is their biggest asset, and that will be on display here in Game 3.  There will only be one day in between Games 2 and 3 for the Knicks to recover, and that's not enough given their current injury situation.  The Pacers have been picking up full court and playing at a break-neck pace, which will pay dividends for them the longer this series goes with how short-handed the Knicks are.  I think the Knicks finally break and get blown out in Game 3.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -118

The Baltimore Orioles are 24-12 this season and one of the best teams in baseball.  They should be much bigger favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks today given their rest advantage and their advantage on the mound.  The Orioles had yesterday off while the Diamondbacks completed their 3-game series in Cincinnati yesterday and now have to travel to Baltimore.

Cole Irvin is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six starts for the Orioles this season, allowing just 2 homers in 34 2/3 innings.  He has been unhittable in his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.60 WHIP while pitching 20 shutout innings and allowing just 12 base runners.

Brandon Pfaadt has been a major disappointment for the Diamondbacks in his two seasons in big leagues not living up to the hype.  Pfaadt is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in seven starts this season, allowing 21 earned runs and 5 homers in 41 innings.  The Orioles will tag him tonight.

The Orioles are 15-2 with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  We are getting tremendous value on Baltimore tonight.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

15* Royals/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -111

The Kansas City Royals have advantages on the mound and at the plate over the Los Angeles Angels tonight.  I like the value we are getting on the Royals at basically even money in Game 1 of this series.

Michael Wacha takes a big step down in class here against an Angels lineup that is in a world of hurt right now without Mike Trout and a few others due to injury.  Wacha has never lost to the Angels, going 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 20 2/3 innings.

Reid Detmers has come back down to reality in a big way of late.  The left-hander is 0-3 with an 8.15 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing a whopping 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 2/3 innings.  Detmers has posted a 5.90 ERA in two career starts against the Royals, allowing 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings.

The Angels are 1-9 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  The Royals are 15-5 against AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season.  Kansas City is 10-2 against teams with a bad bullpen with a 4.70 ERA or worse this season.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 211.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are without their most important defender in Jarrett Allen.  They have had to play a lot more small ball without him, and it has made them a better offensive team but a much worse defensive team.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER in Game 2 tonight.

The OVER is 3-1 in Cavaliers last four games without Allen with the one under staying under by just 2 points.  Game 1 went OVER in this series despite the Cavaliers shooting just 41.1% overall and 11-of-42 (26.2%) from 3-point range.  They came into this series tired after their 7-game series with the Magic.  They should be fresher and shoot better in Game 2 as a result.

The Cavaliers and Celtics have combined for at least 212 points in eight of their last nine meetings with the lone exception being 209.  That makes for an 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 211.5-point total.

Boston is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5 points.  The Celtics are 11-3 OVER after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games this season.  Bet the OVER in Game 2 Thursday.

15* Astros/Yankees AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in four consecutive games and a total of 29 runs in those four games.  They beat the Astros 10-3 in Game 1 and 9-4 in Game 2 and are fully capable of covering this total on their own.

The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in seven of their last 10 games overall, including 8 runs or more four times during this stretch.  I think they will do enough to contribute to us cashing this OVER 8 ticket tonight.

Two reeling starting pitchers square off in this one.  Ronel Blanco has come back down to reality after throwing a no-hitter earlier this season.  He has allowed 4 homers in his last three starts.  Marcus Stroman is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 27 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.

The Astros and Yankees have combined for at least 7 runs in 10 consecutive meetings, including 8 runs or more in eight of those 10.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-110)

The San Francisco Giants have a big advantage on the mound over the Colorado Rockies tonight that should have them winning this game by two runs or more.  The Rockies are 1-8 in their last nine games overall and have scored a total of 11 runs in their last six games overall.

Jordan Hicks is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Hicks is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in seven starts for the Giants, allowing just 8 earned runs and one homer in 38 innings.  He will shut down the ice cold Rockies tonight.

I'll gladly fade Peter Lambert, who is 0-1 with a 14.22 ERA and 2.21 WHIP in two starts for the Rockies this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 14 base runners in 6 1/3 innings.  Lambert is 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of a 6-3 loss to the Giants in his last start against them.

Colorado is 8-27 in all games this season and getting outscored by 2.4 runs per game.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 218.5

There's a ton of value on the OVER in Game 2 today when you compare this total to the three totals from the regular season.  The Pacers and Knicks had totals of 234.5, 235.5 and 248.5 in their three regular season meetings.  The total of 217.5 was too low in Game 1 as these teams combined for 238 points, and the total of 218.5 in Game 2 is too low as well.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  The one game that didn't get to 232 or more the Knicks shot 39.8% from the floor and 21.1% from 3.  That's what it is going to take to keep this one under 218.5 combined points.

The Knicks have been playing playoff basketball for a long time now as they were fighting hard for the No. 2 seed in the East.  That's important because the OVER is 10-1-1 in their last 12 games overall.  In fact, the OVER is 16-2-1 in their last 19 games overall dating back further.  They have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team.

The Pacers just basically played the Bucks without Giannis for the entire series and without Lillard for most of it.  They went 4-1 OVER in their final five games in that series with 218 or more combined points in four of the five.  The Pacers are 10-2 OVER in their last 12 games overall dating back further.  They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in the NBA in pace with an elite offense and suspect defense.  This is a very low total for a game involving Indiana.  Bet the OVER in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +210

I'll take a shot with the Chicago White Sox today as better than 2-to-1 underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays because Aaron Civale has no business being this big of a favorite against anyone.  The White Sox will also be motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series.

Civale is 2-2 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 25 earned runs and 7 homers in 36 2/3 innings.  Civale has been brutal in his last three starts, going 0-1 with an 11.85 ERA and 2.05 WHIP while allowing 18 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.  One of those starts came against the White Sox on April 27th when he allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of an 8-7 defeat as a -180 favorite.

Chris Flexen is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts against the Rays, allowing just 4 earned runs and one homer in 18 1/3 innings.  He faced Tampa Bay on April 26th and pitched 5 shutout innings of a 9-4 victory as a +200 underdog.  The value is too good to pass up today.  Bet the White Sox Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Rays OVER 8

The Tampa Bay Rays have come to life at the plate scoring a total of 33 runs in their last five games overall.  The Chicago White Sox have come to life at the plate over the last two weeks, scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last 11 games overall.  This total of 8 is too low for a game involving these two awful starting pitchers tonight.

Aaron Civale is 2-2 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 25 earned runs and 7 homers in 36 2/3 innings.  Civale has been brutal in his last three starts, going 0-1 with an 11.85 ERA and 2.05 WHIP while allowing 18 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.  One of those starts came against the White Sox on April 27th when he allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of an 8-7 defeat as a -180 favorite.

Chris FLexen is 1-3 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs, 4 homers and 36 base runners in 23 1/3 innings with only 13 K's.  Civale is 22-8 OVER at home with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs in his career.  Flexen is 9-1 OVER in his last 10 starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest.  Flexen is 16-3 OVER in his last 19 starts overall.  Flexen is 10-1 OVER In his last 11 starts against a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-121)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are rolling right now going 13-2 in their last 15 games overall with 11 wins by two runs or more.  They have a big advantage on the mound this afternoon over the lowly Marlins, who are 10-28 on the season.

Gavin Stone is 2-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in six starts for the Dodgers this season.  He'll be opposed by Ryan Weathers, who is 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his last three.  Weathers is 0-1 with a 9.34 ERA in his last two starts against the Dodgers, allowing 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 8 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 30-7 in their last 37 home games off two or more consecutive wins and outscoring opponents by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-136)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are rolling right now going 12-2 in their last 14 games overall with 10 wins by two runs or more.  They have a big advantage on the mound over the lowly Marlins, who are 10-27 on the season.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in seven starts this season with 42 K's in 34 innings.  He has fired 12 shutout innings in his last two starts coming in.

Edward Cabrera is 1-1 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four starts for the Marlins this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Colorado and Washington at home.  Cabrera allowed 6 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of an 8-1 loss to the Dodgers in his lone career start against them.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Dodgers OVER 7.5

This is a very low total for a game involving the Los Angeles Dodgers.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game overall, 5.8 runs per game at home and 6.1 runs per game against right-handed starters.  They are capable of covering this 7.5-run total on their own tonight.

Edward Cabrera is 1-1 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four starts for the Marlins this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Colorado and Washington at home.  Cabrera allowed 6 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of an 8-1 loss to the Dodgers in his lone career start against them.

The Marlins have scored a total of 19 runs in their last three games and have scored at least 4 runs in seven of their last 10 games overall.  They will chip in enough to get this one up and OVER this 7.5-run total.

The Dodgers are 11-2 OVER at home with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Mavericks/Thunder TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 218

This is a very low total between the Mavericks and Thunder in Game 1 of this series tonight when you compare this total to the totals from the regular season.  The Mavericks and Thunder had totals of 233.5, 235.5 and 238.5 in their three meetings prior to the Mavericks resting all their starters with a total of 226.5 in the regular season finale.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 221 or more combined points in all eight meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 218-point total.  They combined for 246, 257 and 245 points in their three regular season meetings in which both teams were near fully healthy and playing all their starters.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Pirates -121

The Los Angeles Angels are in a world of hurt right now without Mike Trout.  They have scored exactly one run in four of their last five games.  They are 3-14 in their last 17 games overall and getting way too much respect here against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates have won three consecutive games and I like what I've seen from Quinn Priester in his last two starts.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 12 innings in those two starts and will shut down the Angels today.

I'll gladly fade Patrick Sandoval, who is 1-5 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in four road starts.  The Pirates are 8-4 against left-handed starters this season and scoring 4.4 runs per game against them.

The Angels are 4-16 in Sandoval's last 20 starts with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Rays OVER 8

The Tampa Bay Rays came to life at the plate over the weekend scoring a total of 28 runs in their last four games overall.  The Chicago White Sox have come to life at the plate over the last two weeks, scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last 10 games overall.  Both offenses should stay hot against these two starting pitchers.

Mike Soroka is 0-3 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in seven starts for the White Sox this season.  Zach Eflin is 1-4 with a 4.17 ERA in seven starts this season for the Rays and has already allowed 6 homers in 41 innings.  Eflin allowed 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 6 innings of a 9-4 loss to the White Sox back on April 26th.

The OVER is 11-5 in White Sox last 16 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 16 games.  The OVER is 9-5 in Rays last 14 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 10 of those 14 games.  The OVER is 8-0 in Soroka's last eight starts in the first half of the season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Soroka's seven starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -109

The Minnesota Twins just had their 12-game winning streak snapped with a 9-2 loss to Boston on Sunday.  I love fading teams after having an extended winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect in the next game.  They just aren't motivated any more to keep the winning streak going.

The Seattle Mariners are 13-5 in their last 18 games overall with some elite starting pitching.  Luis Castillo has been the catalyst, going 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 2 earned runs and 13 base runners in 20 innings with 22 K's.  Castillo is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts against the Twins, allowing 6 earned runs in 19 innings with 27 K's.

Simeon Woods-Richardson is no more than a fill-in starter for the Twins.  He is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in three starts this season while averaging less than 5 innings per start.  He has gotten to face the White Sox (twice) and Tigers, two of the worst lineups in baseball.  This is a big step up in class for the youngster tonight.  Bet the Mariners Monday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 216.5

There's a ton of value on the OVER in Game 1 today when you compare this total to the three totals from the regular season.  The Pacers and Knicks had totals of 234.5, 235.5 and 248.5 in their three regular season meetings.  This total has been set at 216.5 for Game 1 of this series.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with 232 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  The one game that didn't get to 232 or more the Knicks shot 39.8% from the floor and 21.1% from 3.  That's what it is going to take to keep this one under 216.5 combined points.

The Knicks have been playing playoff basketball for a long time now as they were fighting hard for the No. 2 seed in the East.  That's important because the OVER is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games overall.  In fact, the OVER is 15-2-1 in their last 18 games overall dating back further.  They have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team.

The Pacers just basically played the Bucks without Giannis for the entire series and without Lillard for most of it.  They went 4-1 OVER in their final five games in that series with 218 or more combined points in four of the five.  The Pacers are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall dating back further.  They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace with an elite offense and suspect defense.  This is a very low total for a game involving Indiana.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* AL Monday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Rays OVER 7.5

The Tampa Bay Rays came to life at the plate over the weekend scoring a total of 20 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Mets.  The Chicago White Sox have come to life at the plate over the last two weeks, scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last nine games overall.  Both offenses should stay hot against these two terrible starting pitchers.

Mike Clevinger is making his first start of the season for the White Sox.  I expect him to be on a pitch count and for the Rays to get after him and this rough Chicago bullpen.  Tyler Alexander is 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in three starts for the Rays this season.  The White Sox should tee off on him and this disappointing Tampa Bay bullpen that has a 5.06 ERA on the season.

The Rays are 26-9 OVER in their last 35 games after a game where their bullpen threw 6 or more innings in their previous game.  The OVER is 10-5 in White Sox last 15 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 15 games.  The OVER is 8-5 in Rays last 13 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 9 of those 13 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Tigers/Guardians AL Central ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7.5

Two below-average offenses square off today at pitcher-friendly Progressive Field in Cleveland against two above-average starting pitchers and bullpens.  I will back the UNDER 7.5 runs as a result.

Detroit and its opponents have combined for 8 or fewer runs in six of its last seven games overall, including 5 or fewer in four of those.  The Tigers are hitting .224 and scoring 3.9 runs per game this season.  The Guardians and their opponents have combined for 8 or fewer runs in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They just lost leadoff hitter Steven Kwan to a hamstring injury over the weekend.

Jack Flaherty is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts for the Tigers this season with a whopping 50 K's in 36 innings.  Triston McKenzie is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his last three starts with 19 K's in 16 innings.

Flaherty has allowed 2 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Flaherty's three career starts against the Guardians.  McKenzie is 3-2 with a 1.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in seven career starts against Detroit.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in those seven starts.

The UNDER is 14-4-1 in the last 19 meetings.  The Guardians and Tigers have combined for 8 or fewer runs in 16 of those 19 meetings, including 7 runs or fewer in 14 of those 19.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Braves/Dodgers NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

This total of 8.5 is very low for a game involving two of the best offenses in baseball in the Braves and Dodgers.  The Braves are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall and 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starters, while the Dodgers are scoring 5.5 runs per game overall and 5.8 runs per game at home.

Max Fried is 2-0 with a 4.02 ERA in six starts for the Braves this season.  James Paxton is 3-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in five starts for the Dodgers, already allowing 22 walks in 25 2/3 innings with only 15 K's.  Neither starter has displayed great stuff this season in the K department.

The Dodgers are 10-1 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.  Paxton is 9-1 OVER when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The San Diego Padres have scored at least 6 runs in five of their last six games and are raking right now.  The Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 4.9 runs per game at home this season.  This is a very low total for these two offenses up against these two below-average starting pitchers today.

The Padres should stay hot at the plate against Ryne Nelson, who is 1-2 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in two home starts.  Nelson is 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA in five career starts against the Padres.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts against San Diego.

Matt Waldron is 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six starts this season for the Padres.  Waldron allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 6-4 loss to the Diamondbacks in his lone career start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +122

The Seattle Mariners are 12-5 in their last 17 games overall.  They should not be underdogs to Hunter Brown and the Houston Astros today.  The Astros are 12-21 (-14.6 units) this season and grossly overvalued.

Speaking of overvalued, Brown continues to get respect that he doesn't deserve.  Brown is 0-4 with a 9.78 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 25 earned runs and 51 base runners in 23 innings.  He is 0-2 with a 17.46 ERA and 3.70 WHIP in two career starts against Seattle, allowing 11 earned runs and 21 base runners in 5 2/3 innings.

Bryce Miller is 3-2 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing just 8 earned runs and 31 base runners in 35 1/3 innings with 39 K's.  Miller is 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in three career starts against the Astros, allowing just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Cleveland Guardians -129

The Los Angeles Angels are in shambles right now without Mike Trout.  The rest of their lineup leaves a lot to be desired and there are more injuries they are dealing with right now.  The Angels are 3-12 in their last 15 games overall.  They should be bigger underdogs to the Cleveland Guardians today.

I'll gladly fade Griffin Canning, who is 1-3 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in six starts this season while allowing 24 earned runs and 45 base runners in 29 innings.  Canning is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA in three road starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

20* Magic/Cavs ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 196

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Teams get more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  Teams know how to defend one another, especially when we get to a Game 7.  There is perhaps no better bet in the NBA playoffs than Game 7 UNDERS for this reason.

The Magic and Cavaliers haven't combined for more than 207 points in any game in this series.  They went for 180 and 182 combined points in their first two games in Cleveland before getting to 207 in Game 5.  I think we see a similar result here to those first two games with all that's at stake in this winner-take-all Game 7.

Cleveland is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 playoff games.  Orlando is 12-2 UNDER In Sunday games this season.  I also like backing UNDERS in these early start games because players aren't used to playing this early, and it's a sleepy 1:00 EST start time.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

20* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

This total of 8.5 is very low for a game involving two of the best offenses in baseball in the Braves and Dodgers.  The Braves are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall and 5.5 runs per game on the road, while the Dodgers are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall and 5.5 runs per game on the road.

Tyler Glasnow is getting a lot of respect here but he has a mediocre 3.60 ERA in four home starts and the OVER is 3-1 in his four home starts.  Bryce Elder has been solid in two starts against Cleveland and Miami, but he now takes a big step up in class here against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are 9-1 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The San Diego Padres have scored at least 6 runs in four of their last five games and are raking right now.  The Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 5.1 runs per game at home this season.  This is a very low total for these two offenses up against these two below-average starting pitchers tonight.

Michael King is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in six starts for the Padres this season, already allowing 9 homers and 18 walks in 32 2/3 innings.  He has been very poor in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings.

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in six starts this season, allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 35 innings.  Pfaadt had a lot of hype coming into the big leagues but has been a major disappointment in his first two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4.5

I think the Minnesota Timberwolves are the better team in this series.  They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Nuggets last year.  But the Timberwolves have taken a big leap forward this season, while the Nuggets aren't as strong as they were last year with the lack of depth they have on the bench.  The Timberwolves have one of the best benches in the NBA.

The Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA which gives them a chance.  They have great length with Gobert, Towns, McDaniels and Reid to throw at the likes of Jokic, Murray and Porter Jr.  Mike Conley Jr. and Anthony Edwards are also great defenders, and Edwards is quickly becoming one of the best players in the NBA today that the Timberwolves know they can lean on in crunch time.

These teams split the season series but the Timberwolves outscored them by 22 points in their four meetings.  They swept the Suns which is no small feat considering their star power with Durant, Booker and Beal.  They are ready for the moment this year, and it starts with a Game 1 upset tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Guardians -131

The Los Angeles Angels are in shambles right now without Mike Trout.  The rest of their lineup leaves a lot to be desired.  The Angels are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall.  They should be bigger underdogs to the Cleveland Guardians tonight.

Cleveland wants revenge from a 6-0 loss to the Angels yesterday as -195 favorites.  Now we get them at a big discount today.  I like what I've seen from starter Ben Lively, who has posted a 2.30 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing just 4 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings with 19 K's.

Reid Detmers has come back down to reality in his last two starts, allowing 9 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 12 innings in losses to the Orioles and Twins.  Detmers is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four career starts against Cleveland.  The Angels lost both of his starts to the Guardians last year where he allowed 6 earned runs in 10 innings.

The Guardians are 6-1 against left-handed starters this season and scoring 6.4 runs per game in these games.  Bet the Guardians Saturday.

15* Brewers/Cubs NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -121

The Chicago Cubs come back highly motivated for a victory after dropping Game 1 of this series to the Milwaukee Brewers.  I think the Cubs have a big advantage on the mound and should be bigger home favorites as a result.

Jameson Taillon is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts for the Cubs this season, allowing just 3 earned runs and 17 base runners in 18 innings.  He'll be opposed by Tobias Myers, who is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts for the Brewers.  He shut down a bad Pittsburgh offense, but was tagged for 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 15-5 loss to the Yankees in his last start.

Taillon's teams are 32-8 in his last 40 starts after he allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

20* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER ticket in Game 1 tonight between two of the best offenses in baseball.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.

The Dodgers are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall, 5.6 runs per game at home and 5.9 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The Braves are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall and 5.6 runs per game on the road.

Charlie Morton is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in five starts this season, but 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA in two road starts.  Morton is 1-5 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Los Angeles.

Gavin Stone is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in five starts this season, but 1-0 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in three home starts.  Stone allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 innings of an 8-6 win over the Braves in his lone career start against them last season.

The Dodgers are 15-2 OVER in their last 17 games against NL teams that allow 4.0 or fewer runs per game.  Los Angeles is 8-1 OVER in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Cavs/Magic ESPN No-Brainer on Orlando -3.5

The Orlando Magic have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  They are 31-11 SU & 29-13 ATS at home this season.  I expect them to even this series in Game 6 and win this game by 4-plus points to get us the cover.

The Magic won 121-83 at home in Game 3 and 112-89 at home in Game 4 as these two games in Orlando weren't even close.  They nearly pulled off the upset in Game 5, only losing 104-103 in Cleveland.  It looks like the Magic are the better team in this series right now.

That's especially the case now with the Cavaliers missing Jarrett Allen, who sat out Game 5 with injured ribs.  He has been their most important player in this series with all he does on defense and on the boards.  He must really be injured if he's sitting out a Game 5 of a series that's tied 2-2.

Orlando is 17-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Magic are 7-0 ATS in home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 this season.  JB Bickerstaff is 0-7 SU on the road in the playoffs as the coach of the Cavaliers.  Bet the Magic in Game 6 Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Reds OVER 9

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best offenses in baseball.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall and 5.5 runs per game on the road.  The Cincinnati Reds are scoring 5.1 runs per game at home inside hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. I expect some fireworks offensively in Game 1 of this series tonight.  

Cole Irvin is 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in five starts for the Orioles this season, and 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in two road starts.  He has faced a very soft schedule and takes a big step up in class here.

Hunter Greene is 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA in six starts this season, and 0-2 with a 4.94 ERA in four home starts.  Greene allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings to the Phillies and 6 earned runs in 6 innings to the Brewers in his last two home starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Knicks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on New York +3.5

The New York Knicks have been a resilient team all season.  They are 22-11 ATS off a loss this season and 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games when revenging a loss.  The Philadelphia 76ers are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games off an upset win as an underdog.

After blowing a 6-point lead in the final 28 seconds, I expect the Knicks to respond in a big way in Game 6 tonight and close out this series.  With only one day of rest in between games, it really favors the Knicks.  They are the deeper team.  The 76ers rely too much on Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to get all of their offense.  

Embiid is hobbled with a torn knee and running out of steam, and you could see it when he committed nine turnovers in Game 5.  Fortunately for him, Maxey bailed him out with arguably the best game of his career, scoring 46 points on 17-of-30 shooting including 7-of-12 from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again, and the Knicks will make the proper adjustments to slow him down and make someone else beat them.

Plays on any team (New York) - when revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite are 170-105 (61.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Knicks in Game 6 Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/76ers UNDER 200.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams.  The Knicks rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in pace, and the 76ers are playing much slower than normal in the playoffs to accommodate Joel Embiid, who is limping up and down the court with an injured knee.

The last two games in this series were extremely low-scoring, and it should be more of the same in Game 6 tonight.  The Knicks won Game 4 in Philadelphia 97-92 for just 189 combined points.  Game 5 was tied 97-97 at the end of regulation for just 194 combined points before going to OT.  I don't expect either team to get to 100 tonight.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.

15* Guardians/Astros AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Cleveland Guardians are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall including 5.3 runs per game on the road.  The Houston Astros are hitting .281 and scoring 4.9 runs per game at home.  These two offenses should have their way against these two awful starting pitchers tonight.

Logan Allen is 3-1 in spite of a 5.46 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs and 6 homers in 31 1/3 innings.  The OVER is 5-1 in Allen's six starts this season.  Allen allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings of a 10-9 win over the Astros in his lone career start against them last season.

Spencer Arrighetti is only in the rotation for Houston due to injuries to their other starters.  He is 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA and 2.34 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 25 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.

Cleveland is 9-2 OVER against AL West opponents this season.  Houston is 21-10 OVER in its last 31 games when revenging a one-run loss.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Mavericks/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -2.5

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won twice already.  The Clippers have one of the worst home-court advantages in the NBA.  The Mavericks are simply the better team in this series and that will show in Game 5 tonight.

The Clippers were able to steal Game 4 in Dallas thanks to shooting an unsustainable percentage.  They shot 53.7% from the field including a ridiculous 18-of-29 (62.1%) from 3.  Yet they still blew a 31-point lead and were life and death in a 116-111 victory.  Shooting regression will work against them in Game 5, and the Mavericks will grab a stranglehold in this series.

The Clippers could have made a title run with a healthy Kawhi Leonard, but he sat out Game 4 and is likely out for the rest of this series as his knee just hasn't responded like he was hoping it would.  And without Kawhi, the Mavericks are by far the superior team.  Even if he decides to play the Clippers have lost both games with him in the lineup.

Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games when revenging a loss this season.  The Clippers are 7-19 ATS off a road win this season.  The Mavericks are 19-6 ATS as road favorites this season.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -134

The Los Angeles Dodgers are highly motivated to win this series against the Arizona Diamondbacks after getting swept by them in the playoffs last year.  They won 8-4 in Game 1 but lost 4-3 in extras last night.  I expect them to take Game 3 tonight with their advantage on the mound and at the plate.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been dominant since losing to the Padres in Japan in the opener.  He is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 6 earned runs in 27 innings with 35 K's.

Jordan Montgomery got off to a late start this season after being signed late by the Diamondbacks.  After facing the Cardinals and Giants in his first two starts this season, Montgomery takes a big step up in class here against the Dodgers.  He is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles while allowing 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings.

Arizona is 3-10 off a win this season.  The Dodgers are 54-23 in their last 77 games off a loss.  Bet the Dodgers Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Orioles OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Yankees and Orioles tonight.  It's going to be 80 degrees at game time with light winds blowing out to right-center at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

The Orioles are scoring 5.4 runs per game this season while the Yankees are scoring 5.5 runs per game on the road.  These are two of the best lineups in the American League, and both are hot right now.

The Yankees scored 30 runs in two games over the weekend and have now scored at least 6 runs in four of their last seven games overall.  The Orioles have scored at least 4 runs or more in 14 of their last 16 games overall.  Both offenses have been held in check in this series thus far, but I expect them to explode in Game 3.

Corbin Burnes has already allowed 5 homers in 35 1/3 innings, while Luis Gil has control issues with 19 walks in 24 2/3 innings.  This total of 8.5 is too low for these two offenses this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Padres OVER 8

The Cincinnati Reds have a potent lineup that is scoring 4.9 runs per game.  The San Diego Padres are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses with 10 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to right-center in San Diego this afternoon.

Joe Musgrove consistently gets too much respect from the books and is with this low total again today.  Musgrove is 3-3 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 27 earned runs, 9 homers and 58 base runners in 35 innings with only 27 K's.  The OVER is 5-2 in Musgrove's seven starts and the OVER is 7-2 in Musgrove's last nine starts against Cincinnati.

Graham Ashcraft is 3-1 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 28 2/3 innings.  The Padres are scoring 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starters this season and should get to Ashcraft today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Angels are playing like the team most thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in baseball.  They have gone 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and just lost Mike Trout to a torn meniscus.  He was having a great season and the lone bright spot on this team.

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing what they are capable of, which is one of the best teams in baseball.  They have gone 12-3 in their last 15 games overall and have now scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 14 games.  They are raking at the plate right now.

The Phillies should stay hot at the plate against Patrick Sandoval, who is 1-4 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 20 earned runs and 49 base runners in 27 innings.  Philadelphia has a big advantage on the mound behind ace Zack Wheeler, who is 2-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 32 base runners in 37 1/3 innings with 46 K's.

The Angels are 2-14 in Sandoval's last 16 starts against a team with a winning record and getting outscored by 4.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Angels are 1-10 in Sandoval's last 11 home starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5 runs and getting outscored by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* NL Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -110

The Los Angeles Dodgers want revenge after getting swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in three games in the playoffs last year to end their season.  The won Game 1 8-4 last night, and I expect them to crush the Diamondbacks again in Game 2 tonight.

I like what I've seen from Landon Knack, who is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two starts for the Dodgers this season.  Knack will be up against an ice cold Arizona lineup that has scored a total of 10 runs in their last five games for an average of just 2.0 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks hitting .208 and scoring 3.7 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.

The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball and are hitting .275 and scoring 5.4 runs per game this season.  I expect them to get to Jordan Montgomery, who signed late with the Diamondbacks and is behind the eight ball.  Montgomery is 0-2 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings.

Montgomery's teams are 1-8 (-10.6 Units) in his last nine starts when the total is 9 to 9.5 runs.  Bet the Dodgers Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Padres OVER 7.5

The Cincinnati Reds have a potent lineup that is scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The San Diego Padres are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses tonight.

Nick Martinez is 0-1 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 27 base runners in 16 innings.  Yu Darvish is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts for the Padres, allowing 10 earned runs in 15 innings.  Both starters are getting too much respect tonight.

Cincinnati is 16-5 OVER in its last 21 road games after allowing 2 runs or less.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -134

The Los Angeles Angels are playing like the team most thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in baseball.  They have gone 2-9 in their last 11 games overall and just gave up a total of 27 runs in two games over the weekend to the Twins.

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing what they are capable of, which is one of the best teams in baseball.  They have gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall and have now scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 13 games.  They are raking at the plate right now.

The Phillies should stay hot at the plate against Tyler Anderson, who is very fortunate to have the numbers he has to this point.  Anderson has 21 K's in 30 1/3 innings and doesn't have elite stuff at all.  Anderson has allowed 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies.

Spencer Turnbull is the real deal for the Phillies.  He has gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing just 4 earned runs and 23 base runners in 27 innings with 30 K's, showing he has elite stuff with this K numbers.

The Angels are 1-9 at home with a line of +125 to -125 this season.  Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Astros OVER 9

The Cleveland Guardians are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season including 5.2 runs per game on the road.  The Houston Astros are scoring 4.8 runs per game at home.  Both offenses should have their way against these two awful starting pitchers tonight.

Hunter Brown is 0-4 with a 9.68 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs and 44 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  Carlos Carrasco is 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 38 base runners in 23 1/3 innings.  Carrasco has allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Astros.

Cleveland is 8-1 OVER against AL West opponents this season.  Houston is 8-0 OVER in its last eight home games after allowing 4 runs or fewer in four consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Cavaliers UNDER 202

This has been a defensive series as both teams are struggling to make outside shots, and both are playing at a snail's pace.  The UNDER is 3-1 in this series with 180, 182, 204 and 201 combined points in the four games.  Both teams in Cleveland were the very low-scoring games with 180 and 182 combined points.

With this series tied 2-2, you know the defensive intensity will be there tonight.  The Magic just struggle scoring on the road putting up 83 and 86 points in their two games in Cleveland.  I don't expect them to have much offensive success in this one.  They shot 55.8% in Game 4 and 51.1% in Game 3 at home, but just 32.6% in Game 1 and 36.2% in Game 2 in Cleveland.

Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 playoff games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York -3.5

The New York Knicks are the better team in this series.  I cashed the Knicks in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Philadelphia and grabbed a stranglehold on this series.  You could tell it sucked the life out of the 76ers, especially since New York fans took over the building.

Joel Embiid made excuses and called out Philadelphia fans after the game.  You can tell the 76ers are rattled.  Now Embiid had a migraine this morning and missed shootaround.  It's going to be 1-2-3 Cancun for the 76ers regardless of whether or not he plays tonight.

Few teams have a home-court advantage as strong as the Knicks right now.  These fans are hungry for playoff success and this is one of their favorite teams ever.  You can see why because the chemistry on the Knicks is perfect, and these guys love playing for one another.  Jalen Brunson is a star and scored a franchise record 47 points in a playoff game to close out the 76ers in Game 4.

Even if Embiid goes, he is not conditioned very well right now and there is only one day in between games.  The 76ers just rely on him and Maxey to do everything for them.  There's no depth on this team, Buddy Hield isn't even playing, and the 76ers are cooked.  I expect a blowout win in favor of the Knicks tonight in Game 5 to close out this series.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Orioles OVER 9

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Yankees and Orioles tonight.  It's going to be 85 degrees at game time with 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

The Orioles are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season while the Yankees are scoring 5.7 runs per game on the road.  These are two of the best lineups in the American League, and both are hot right now.

The Yankees scored 30 runs in two games over the weekend and have now scored at least 6 runs in four of their last six games overall.  The Orioles have scored at least 6 runs in three of their last five, and 4 runs or more in 13 of their last 15 games overall.

Nestor Cortes is 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in three road starts this season.  Dean Kremer is 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two home starts.  Kremer is 2-3 with a 5.04 ERA in nine career starts against the Yankees.  Cortes allowed 4 runs and 2 homers in 6 innings of a 9-6 loss to the Orioles in his last start against them.

The Yankees are 12-3 OVER in their last 15 road games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less.  The OVER is 15-5 in Kremer's last 20 starts in the first half of the season.  The OVER is 13-1 in Kremer's last 14 starts against a AL team that hits .255 or worse.  The OVER is 10-0 in Kremer's last 10 starts against a AL team that slugs .410 or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have had a lead for 136 of the 192 minutes played in this series.  They have really been the better team for large stretches despite being down 3-1 in this series.  The Nuggets gave them life in Game 4 as the Lakers were finally able to close, and now they got that monkey off their back from losing 11 straight to the Nuggets in this head-to-head series.

Look for the Lakers to be playing free and loose in Game 5 tonight.  Everyone left them for dead down 3-0, but they have a legit shot to get back in this series now.  That's especially the case with Jamal Murray questionable with a calf injury suffered late in Game 4.  If he doesn't play this line will crash, and I like the Lakers to cover this 7.5-point spread even if he does and is at less than 100%.  The Nuggets just don't have the depth they have had in recent seasons.  Bet the Lakers Monday.

15* NL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Padres OVER 8

The Cincinnati Reds have a potent lineup that is scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The San Diego Padres are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses tonight.

Nick Lodolo will be making his 4th start of the season.  After shutting down two of the worst lineups in baseball in the White Sox and Angels, he took a big step up in class and allowed 3 runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 7-4 win over the Phillies in his last start.  He won't be able to hold the Padres in check, either.

The Reds should have plenty of success against Matt Waldron, who is 1-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in two home starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 16 hits in 8 2/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 10

The Dodgers are hitting .274 and scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They should be able to name their number against Tommy Henry, who is 1-1 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in two home starts.

James Paxton is fortunate to have a 2.61 ERA in his four starts this season when you consider he has a 1.55 WHIP and has allowed 17 walks in 20 2/3 innings with only 11 K's.  He has somehow been able to get out of trouble despite lacking good 'stuff'.  His luck runs out tonight against an Arizona lineup that is hitting .294 and scoring 7.3 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

The Dodgers are 10-2 OVER vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* AL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/White Sox OVER 7.5

The Minnesota Twins are raking right now scoring 5 runs or more in seven consecutive games while averaging 8.1 runs per game in their last seven.  The Chicago White Sox have finally gotten their bats going as well scoring 3 runs or more in six consecutive games, including a total of 21 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Rays last series.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the White Sox and Twins.  There are expected to be 13 MPH winds blowing out to left tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field with temps approaching 70.

Both starters are getting too much respect in this one.  Joe Ryan has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  He gave up 2 homers in 6 innings to the White Sox in his last start on April 24th of a 6-3 victory opposite Garrett Crochet.  Ryan has allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.

Crochet has been a major disappointment for the White Sox.  He is 1-4 with a 6.37 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-3 with a 13.11 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings.  Crochet gave up 5 earned runs in 4 innings in that loss to the Twins on April 24th.

Minnesota is 22-6 OVER in its last 28 games against a starting pitcher that allowed one or more homers per start.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in Twins last six games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in White Sox last six games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Yankees/Orioles OVER 9

The Orioles are scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season while the Yankees are scoring 6.1 runs per game on the road.  These are two of the best lineups in the American League, and both are hot right now.

The Yankees scored 30 runs in two games over the weekend and have not scored at least 6 runs in four of their last five games overall.  The Orioles have scored at least 6 runs in three of their last four, and 4 runs or more in 13 of their last 14 games overall.

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 8 MPH winds blowing out to left in Baltimore tonight.  The ball should be flying off the bats of both teams in his humid air.

Grayson Rodriquez allowed 7 eruns and 12 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 7-4 loss to the Angels in his last start.  Clarke Schmidt is 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in three career starts against the Orioles, and the OVER is 3-1 in those four starts.

Rodriquez is 12-3 OVER in his last 15 starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Timberwolves/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 212.5

Minnesota controlled the tempo in the first two games of this series at home.  They won 120-95 and 105-93.  Phoenix got more of their tempo in Game 3 in a 126-109 loss that saw 235 combined points.  It will be more of the same in Game 4 today.

The Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA which is why they have had success in this series.  But I think they let go of the rope a little here after taking a commanding 3-0 series lead.  I expect the best offensive performance of the series for the Suns in Game 4 tonight.

But the problem with the Suns is they don't defend and get owned on the board.  The Timberwolves have scored 126, 120 and 105 points in the first three games in this series while dominating the board.  They will continue to light it up offensively in this one.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Rangers OVER 8.5

Two above-average offenses square off today in Texas against two below-average starting pitchers.  The Reds are scoring 5.0 runs per game while the Rangers are scoring 4.6 runs per game this season.

Andrew Abbott lacks elite stuff with just 20 K's in 27 2/3 innings and 11 walks and 3 homers allowed.  I expect the Rangers to tee off on him.  But the Reds will also tee off on Dane Dunning, who is 2-2 with a 4.61 ERA with 7 homers and 16 walks allowed in 27 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are hitting .277 and scoring 5.4 runs per game this season, including .287 and 6.2 runs per game against right-handed-starters.  They will get 6-plus in this one and lead the way in us cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Kevin Gausman is 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in five starts for the Blue Jays this season, including 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in two home starts.  Gausman is 1-4 with a 4.31 ERA in eight career starts against the Dodgers.

Michael Grove will be making his first start of the season for the Dodgers.  He has posted a 6.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 15 innings in relief this season.  Grove is 3-3 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 113 1/3 innings in the big leagues.  The Blue Jays will have a lot of success at the plate today as well.

The Dodgers are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 road games against AL East opponents.  Toronto is 23-8 OVER in its last 31 Sunday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+110)

The Baltimore Orioles have a massive advantage at the plate today over the Oakland A's that should lead them to winning this game by two or more runs.  They are scoring 5.6 runs per game while the A's are scoring just 2.7 runs per game.

I've been very impressed with Albert Suarez, who will be making his 3rd start of the season for the Orioles.  Suarez is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in two starts this season, pitching 11 1/3 shutout innings while allowing just 9 base runners.  He will shut down the A's, who have scored 3 runs or fewer in nine consecutive games after getting shut out yesterday.

Baltimore is 26-7 in its last 33 games against bad teams that are outscored by one or more runs per game and winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Plays on home favorites of -150 or more (Baltimore) - an excellent power team averaging 1.5 or more homers per game after allowing one run or less are 80-14 (85.1%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Sunday.

15* Knicks/76ers ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on New York +4.5

The New York Knicks are the better, deeper team in this series.  They took care of business at home winning the first two games of this series.  They had a bit of a letdown in Game 3 while the 76ers wanted it more.  I think the Knicks fire back in Game 4 today.

The 76ers actually trailed at halftime and had everything go right for them and still struggled to put the Knicks away in Game 3.  They shot 54.7% as a team and 15-of-31 (48.4%) from 3.  Joel Embiid scored 50 points on only 19 shots.  That's not going to happen again.  The 76ers made 15 more FT than the Knicks and got the benefit of the whistle, which is also unlikely to happen again.

The Knicks are 21-11 ATS off a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS off a road loss.  They are a very motivated, resilient bunch and I expect them to fire back in a big way in Game 4, especially after the dirty play Embiid made on Mitchell Robinson in Game 3.  Bet the Knicks in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Denver -3

The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead team walking.  They just lost their 11th consecutive game to the Denver Nuggets in this head-to-head series in a must-win Game 3.  That's three blown halftime leads by the Lakers in three games in this series.

The Lakers are now completely demoralized and won't show up for Game 4.  Darvin Ham is making zero halftime adjustments and the Nuggets are making all the right moves after intermission.  Ham is a dead man walking.

The Lakers go too much iso ball in the 2H, and both Anthony Davis and LeBron James have had to play too many minutes because they are getting zero help.  They will once again run out of gas in the 2H, especially with only one day in between Games 3 and 4.  This series is over.  Bet the Nuggets in Game 4 Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Guardians/Braves OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .284 and scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The Cleveland Guardians are much better offensively than they get credit for.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall and 5.4 runs per game on the road.

This is a very low total for these two potent offenses up against these two suspect starting pitchers.  Tanner Bibee is 2-0 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts for the Guardians this season.  Charlie Morton is 2-0 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in four starts for the Braves.

The OVER is 24-9 in Morton's last 33 starts in the first half of the season.  He is a notorious slow starter.  Both teams should have their way at the plate today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125)

The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball this season.  They are 4-22 this season while scoring 2.5 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game, getting outscored by 3.1 runs per game.  After a shocking win yesterday in Game 1 over the Rays, I expect them to get back to being the terrible team they are today.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound.  Aaron Civale is 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in five starts for the Rays this season.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his 10 career starts against the White Sox.

Jonathan Cannon is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in two starts for the White Sox this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 14 base runners in 8 2/3 innings to the Twins and Royals.

Chicago is 0-15 after losing four of its last five games this season and getting outscored by 4.6 runs per game in this spot.  Civale's teams are 22-3 in his last 25 starts against bad teams that are outscored by one or more runs per game on the season and winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+122)

The Baltimore Orioles are highly motivated for a victory today after getting upset as -275 favorites to the A's in Game 1.  They came into this series with a rest advantage over the A's, and that rest advantage will pay dividends today.  The A's have most of their top bullpen arms unavailable after needing them to upset the Yankees and Orioles in consecutive days Thursday and Friday.

Cole Irvin fired 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Royals in his last start.  Irvin allowed just one run in 5 innings of a 7-2 victory in his last start against the A's.  He'll be opposed by JP Sears, who has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.  The A's lost those two games by 11 and 4 runs.

The Orioles are 8-0 in Irvin's last eight starts against an AL team slugging .410 or worse and winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Orioles OVER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the A's and Orioles this afternoon.  There are expected to be 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Baltimore this afternoon.

The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own.  They'll tee off on JP Sears, who has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.

Cole Irvin is vulnerable for the Orioles.  he is 1-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in two home starts.  Irvin has a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against Oakland.

Baltimore is 10-2 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Oakland is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games against excellent power teams that average 1.5 or more homers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Thunder/Pelicans TNT ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans were knocked out of the playoffs by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the play-in round last year.  Now they are down 2-0 in this series after losing the first two games on the road.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 when they return home today, and I expect them to get the job done with one of their best efforts of the season.

I think the 94-92 loss in Game 1 was hard to recover from because they had every chance to win.  The Thunder took advantage and crushed the Pelicans 124-92 in Game 2.  However, the Thunder shot 59% as a team and 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range in Game 2.  They are due some negative shooting regression.

The Pelicans are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 38.5% as a team and 11-of-39 (28.2%) from 3 in Game 1, and 7-of-26 (26.9%) from 3 in Game 2.  Role players usually play much better at home because they are a lot more comfortable.  They weren't comfortable in those two road games in a hostile crowd in OKC.

The Pelicans were a tired team coming into this series as they were life and death at the end of the season trying to win games to get out of the play-in.  Then they had two play-in games.  But they have now had two days off in between games for a second consecutive game and this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  That's another reason I think they are primed for a big effort because they are fresh.  Bet the Pelicans in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Cavaliers/Magic TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Orlando -2

The Orlando Magic have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 30-11 SU & 28-13 ATS at home this season.  After shooting terribly in Cleveland the first two games, they shot 51.1% and won 121-83 at home in Game 3.

I don't expect it to come as easily for the Magic at home in Game 4, but I do expect them to get another win and cover to even this series.  Donovan Mitchell got hobbled yet again in Game 3 and wasn't himself, and even though he will play in Game 4 he isn't anywhere near 100%.  The Cavaliers are vulnerable when that's the case.

The Cavaliers are 0-6 SU on the road in the playoffs under current head coach JB Bickerstaff.  The Magic are 20-7 ATS as home favorites this season.  Cleveland is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Magic in Game 4 Saturday.

15* Phillies/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

Two offenses that have come to life recently square off tonight against two of the most overrated starters in baseball in Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove.  These two starters are getting too much respect here with this total set at just 7.5 runs.

Nola is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA this season but he has already allowed 6 homers in 31 1/3 innings.  Nola allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-5 loss to the Padres in his last start against them.

Musgrove is 3-2 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 20 earned runs and 5 homers in 31 1/3 innings.  Musgrove is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last two starts against the Phillies, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 2/3 innings.

The Phillies have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last nine games overall.  The Padres have scored at least 6 runs in seven of their last 14 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL Friday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-131)

The Chicago White Sox are off to one of the worst starts in MLB history.  They are 3-22 this season scoring just 2.2 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game, getting outscored by 3.4 runs per game.  I'll gladly back the Tampa Bay Rays to win by two runs or more tonight.

The Rays have the rest advantage after having yesterday off while the White Sox lost their 6th consecutive game in Minnesota.  The Rays also have a massive advantage on the mound in this one.

Zach Eflin is the ace of the Rays at 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in five starts this season.  Eflin is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox.

Chris Flexen is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Flexen is 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 25 base runners in 13 1/3 innings with only 7 K's.  He is 1-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in three career starts against the Rays as well.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Guardians/Braves OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .285 and scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The Cleveland Guardians are much better offensively than they get credit for.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall, including hitting .305 and scoring 7.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own against Logan Allen, who has posted a 5.06 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 26 2/3 innings.

Chris Sale is 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four starts for the Braves this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  The Guardians should continue crushing southpaws tonight.

Atlanta is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games after allowing 3 runs or fewer in three consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.