ASA top play on 10* OVER 236.5 San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - The Spurs are coming off a game last night in which they allowed 137 points to the Hawks but scored 135 themselves. When playing without rest this season the Spurs have allowed 120 and 152 points. The Spurs allow 1.193 points per possession which ranks 26th in the league. They give up 123.4PPG which is the 3rd most. We know there will be plenty of possessions in this contest as the Spurs are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.1 possessions per game. New Orleans also prefers to play up-tempo with the 8th fastest paced number in the NBA. The Pelicans are at full strength here with the return of CJ McCollum and are coming off a 124-point outing against the 76ers. New Orleans should have an easy time scoring here against this Spurs defense that ranks 27th or worse in: FG% defense, field goals made per game, field goals attempted and 3PT% against. With the Pels having a high probability of scoring 125 or more points we like this game to go Over the total.

#305 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Oregon -9.5 over Washington, Saturday at 8 PM ET - There is a reason the team that has 1 loss on the season is favored by nearly double digits over the undefeated team. On top of that, the favored team in this game lost to the undefeated team this year yet still is a hefty chalk. We’ve been saying for weeks this Washington team is trending down and has been since they beat Oregon 36-33 back in mid October. The Huskies have now been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games including last week’s 24-21 home win over Washington State. The Huskies needed a last second FG to pull that one off and they barely had 300 total yards of offense vs a Wazzu defense that came into the game 83rd nationally in total defense. Even in their win over the Ducks this season, Washington had 7 fewer first downs and they were outgained by 125 yards and that was when the Huskies were clicking on all cylinders. They are just 2-6 ATS their last 8 games and the defense has fallen all the way to 84th nationally allowing over 400 total YPG. They’ve won 1 game in Pac 12 play by more than 10 points so this team has been flirting with disaster but remains undefeated. Meanwhile the Ducks defense ranks in the top 15 nationally and has allowed 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Since their loss to Washington, the Ducks have won 6 in a row with 5 of those coming by at least 14 points. Despite having 1 less win than UW in Pac 12 play (Washington 9-0 and Oregon 8-1) the Ducks point differential in league play is +225 compared to +72 for Washington! Oregon also averages over 100 YPG more than Washington in conference play while allowing over 100 less than the Huskies in Pac 12 games. Oregon is the much better and more complete team right now and with 1 loss already, if they get a chance to pour it on they will do just that in their last attempt to make College Football’s Final 4. No holding back in this one. We like the Ducks by double digits.

#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cal State Fullerton -4.5 over North Dakota, Friday at 9 PM ET - North Dakota steps into this game with a 6-1 record, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far. They’ve faced only 1 team ranked inside the top 280 and that was Iowa and they lost that game by 42 points. The Fighting Hawks are in a very tough situational spot as well playing their 4th game in 7 days. They played in Conway, Arkansas on Saturday and Sunday, rushed home to face Concordia College of Minnesota on Tuesday and now they are on the West Coast a few days later. CS Fullerton has a 2-4 record but they’ve played the much tougher schedule. They’ve already faced 4 teams ranked 115th or higher and every team they’ve played is ranked higher than everyone on North Dakota’s schedule so far not named Iowa. The Titans have played only 1 home game the entire season prior to tonight and that was a 30 point win. Titan Gym is a tough place for opposing teams to visit as CSF has a record of 23-4 SU at home since the start of the 2022 season. Despite their sub .500 record and playing the much tougher schedule, the Titans PPP differential is actually better than North Dakota’s signaling some solid value on the home team. This is also a revenger from last season when CSF traveled to North Dakota and lost as a 5.5 point favorite. Now we’re laying the same number with them as home as the perception of each team is off due to their overall records. Half of the Fighting Hawks 6 wins have come by 2 points or less so they could be sitting with a much different record at this point. They are also one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation (348th) and one of the worst at defending the arc (349th). We’ll lay the number with Cal State Fullerton and look for a solid cover on Friday night.

#859 ASA PLAY ON George Washington +9.5 over South Carolina, Friday at 7 PM ET - After a terrible season in 2022/23 (11-21 record) the Gamecocks have started the season 6-0 but now are officially overvalued. They were just favored by 7.5 points at home vs Notre Dame and after winning that game by 12 points, they are now laying nearly double digits vs a GW team that is rated 40 spots higher than the Irish per KenPom. Since blowing out SC Upstate to start the season, South Carolina’s last 5 wins have come by an average of just 7 PPG with only 1 win during that stretch coming by more than 10 points. The Gamecocks also have a huge rivalry game on deck with Clemson so we wouldn’t be surprised if they are peaking ahead here. George Washington is a solid 6-1 this season. The Revolutionaries are solid from the 3 point line (37%) and they defend the arc very well allowing opponents to make only 27%. They get to the line a decent amount with 21% of their points coming from the stripe and they shoot 80% as a team. South Carolina fouls quite often with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the FT line. GW is the opposite as they rarely foul and only 12% of their opponents points come from the stripe. George Washington is very balanced offensively and a tough guard with 4 players averaging over 13 PPG led by PG Bishop who is averaging 21 PPG and one of the top players in the Atlantic 10. If the Revolutionaries can make some 3’s and get to the FT line they have a shot at the upset here. We’ll take the generous points and call for a close game.