#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +6.5 over Buffalo, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bills are overvalued right now with their string of blowouts + a win over KC last weekend. Let’s remember that, while impressive, their last 4 wins have come vs Miami (with Brissett making first start this year at QB), Washington (with QB Heinicke making 2nd start), Houston (with rookie Mills at QB) and KC (who turned the ball over 4 times in the game to 0 for Buffalo & KC ain’t the KC of last year as they are 3-3 on the season). This is also a terrible spot for the Bills. They focused much of their off-season on beating KC in that game last week after losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year. That was, in essence, their regular season Super Bowl. Now they go on the road in a game the opener was set at -3 and it’s been bet up to nearly a TD. The Tennessee offense is getting healthy again as WR’s Jones is expected back tonight. RB Henry has rushed for nearly 4,800 yards in his last 40 games and they are very dangerous offensively if they can mix up the run and pass. We think they’ll do that tonight vs Bills team that has solid numbers vs the run but they’ve faced 4 rushing attacks ranked 19th or lower this season. This Tennessee coaching staff knows something about beating the Bills. Last year Buffalo strolled into town with an impressive 9-2 record favored by 3 vs this Titans. They left with a 42-16 loss. It was one week after the Bills played KC very similar to this situation. The dog has covered 6 straight in this series and let’s not act as of this Tennessee team is some slouch. They are 3-2 this year so this is a huge game for them and they won the AFC South a season ago. We’re not talking about Jacksonville or the NY Jets here. They are a playoff caliber team getting nearly a TD at home. This one stays close throughout and we’ll take the points.

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, Monday at 8:08 PM ET – Each of Boston's last 5 games have totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged a total of 12.8 runs. The Red Sox just hammered the Astros 9-5 at Houston in Game 2 on Saturday and now are back home where they have won 8 of 11 games. In those 11 games at Fenway Park, Boston has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game. The Red Sox should hammer Jose Urquidy here. The right-hander has not pitched since October 3rd and allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts of the regular season. Look for Urquidy to be a bit off after the long time between starts and also to continue to prove susceptible to giving up the long ball. The Astros lineup should have a big game as well. Houston has averaged scoring 6.8 runs per game in the month of October and has not been held below 5 runs in any of their games this month! The Astros will take advantage of facing Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez as he has a 5.95 ERA in home starts this season! This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over