|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-30-23||Texas Tech v. Butler -2.5||95-103||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -2.5
The Butler Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS this season despite facing a very tough schedule. Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the country in Michigan State and Florida Atlantic on the road. They only lost to FAU by 5 as 5.5-point dogs, and FAU has been blasting everyone else.
Butler handled Penn State 88-78 as a PK on a neutral and Boise State 70-56 as 1.5-point dogs on a neutral in the two games following those two losses to MSU and FAU. Now they get a Texas Tech team that looks down this season based on results.
Texas Tech is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS in its six games this season. The Red Raiders only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites. They lost by 16 to Villanova on a neutral as 3.5-point dogs, and that's a Villanova team that has already been upset twice as double-digit home favorites this season. They only beat a bad Northern Iowa team by 2 as 7-point favorites on a neutral as well.
Texas Tech is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games vs. Big East opponents. Butler is 7-0 ATS in its last seven November home games. Bet Butler Thursday.
|11-29-23||Colorado v. Colorado State -2.5||83-88||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
15* Colorado/Colorado State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Colorado State -2.5
Colorado State is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and currently 27th in KenPom as one of the best mid-major teams in the country. All six wins this season have come by 8 points or more, with none being more impressive than their 69-48 win as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Creighton last time out.
Normally this would be a letdown spot for the Rams, but that's simply not the case with hated in-state rival Colorado coming to town. The Rams have lost three consecutive meetings with the Buffaloes including a blowout road loss last season. They want revenge, and they will get it tonight. Colorado State has played the much tougher schedule (129th) than Colorado (251st) as well.
Colorado is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with some concerning results. The Buffaloes only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites, and failed to cover against a rebuilding Iona team in a 17-point home win as 19-point favorites. Their other three wins all came at home against bad teams in Towson, Grambling and Milwaukee. This will be their first true road game of the season.
Colorado is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 non-conference games. The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a win by 10 points or more. Colorado has been one of the worst road teams in the country for several years running. Bet Colorado State Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State||Top||72-79||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -3.5
The Bradley Braves are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS this season despite facing a tough schedule that ranks 149th in the country. They have beaten the likes of Utah State (61st in KenPom), Tulane (99th), Vermont (119th) and UAB (127th). All six wins have come against teams that rank in the Top 166.
Murray State is 2-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season despite facing the 295th-ranked schedule in the country. They lost to Western Kentucky by 5 as 1-point home favorites, UNC Wilmington as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral, by 10 to Appalachian State by 2.5-point dogs on a neutral and only beat Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites in their lone win against a Division 1 team.
Steve Prohm is one of my favorite head coaches to fade, while Brian Wardle is one of my favorite head coaches to back. Prohm is 0-6 ATS in home games following a non-conference game as the coach of Murray State.
Bradley is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite. The Braves are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a bad team that wins 20-40% of their games. This is an absolute mismatch and the Braves should be bigger favorites tonight. Bet Bradley Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Cal-Irvine +6 v. Duquesne||62-66||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +6
UC-Irvine is 6-1 this season and ranked 63rd in KenPom as one of the better mid-major programs in the country. The Anteaters have been very impressive during their current six-game winning streak where they have also gone 5-0 ATS.
They beat USC outright 70-60 as 12.5-point road dogs. They beat Pepperdine by 16 as 5.5-point favorites on a neutral. They beat Toledo by 6 as 1.5-point favorites on a neutral. And they backed it up with a 15-point win over Rice as 8-point favorites on a neutral. Now they are catching 6 points on the road against Duquesne when this line should be much closer to a PK.
Duquesne is 4-2 this season with a win over Cleveland State by 1 as 10-point home favorites, an outright home loss to Princeton as 5.5-point favorites, and a 10-point loss at Nebraska as 6-point dogs. Irvine has played the 68th-ranked schedule in the country while Duquesne has played the 207th.
Irvine is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 November games. Duquesne is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers. Irvine is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. The Dukes are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. good shooting teams making 48% or better on the season. Bet UC-Irvine Wednesday.
|11-28-23||Miami-FL +7.5 v. Kentucky||Top||73-95||Loss||-115||8 h 27 m||Show|
20* Miami/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +7.5
The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team. All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 18.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 15.8 points and a team-high 9.2 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 16.0 points and 4.0 assists.
Bensley Joseph (11.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 2.4 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 16.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists. This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.
Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites. They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to the Bahamas Championship Tournament. But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites and topping Kansas State 91-83 as 3-point favorites. Now I expect the Hurricanes to give Kentucky a run for its money tonight.
Kentucky lost 89-84 to Kansas as 7-point underdogs on a neutral in its lone game against a decent opponent this season. They failed to cover as massive home favorites against Texas A&M Community College, Stonehill and St. Joseph's while also beating up on bad New Mexico State and Marshall teams. They needed OT to beat St. Joe's as a 15-point home favorite just two games ago. They are missing some key 7-footers inside right now and are all guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for Miami, which has some of the best guards in the country plus Omier inside.
Kentucky is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game. Miami is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog or PK. The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better. The Hurricanes are a veteran team that relishes these challenges on the road in hostile environments. Bet Miami Tuesday.
|11-27-23||Oakland +15.5 v. Xavier||78-76||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland +15.5
What more does Oakland have to do to get some respect from the books? Oakland is 3-3 SU & 6-0 ATS this season against a brutal schedule being listed as underdogs in all six games. They upset Loyola-Marymount 74-69 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall 78-71 as 2.5-point dogs and crushed Bowling Green 81-62 as 2.5-point favorites.
But more impressive than the wins are actually the three losses. Oakland only lost 79-73 at Ohio State as 19.5-point underdogs, lost 53-64 as 24-point dogs at Illinois and lost 85-77 as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Drake. If they can hang with those three teams, they can certainly hang with Xavier.
Xavier already has two losses this season to Purdue by 12 and to Washington by 3. Three of the four wins were against bottom feeders in Robert Morris (by 4), Jacksonville and Bryant. And now Xavier has a massive game with No. 6 ranked Houston on deck and could easily be looking ahead to that game and overlooking Oakland. Bet Oakland Monday.
|11-26-23||Monmouth +6 v. Pennsylvania||Top||61-76||Loss||-110||4 h 54 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Monmouth +6
Monmouth has been undervalued this season at 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS and the Hawks continue to be undervalued here as 6-point underdogs to the Penn Quakers. Monmouth won outright as a 14.5-point dog at West Virginia earlier this season.
These teams have two common opponents the last two days, and it's easy to see Monmouth is the better team when looking at this results. Monmouth beat Belmont 93-84 and beat Lafayette 63-53. Penn only beat Lafayette 74-72 and lost outright to Belmont 84-79.
But the kicker here is that Penn went to OT against Belmont yesterday and will be the more tired team as a result. Their three best players played 43, 36 and 35 minutes in that OT loss and won't have much left in the tank for Monmouth, which was able to rest its starters late yesterday due to the blowout nature of their game against Lafayette. Nobody played more than 29 minutes for them yesterday.
Monmouth is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 60 points or less. Penn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. Plays on road teams (Monmouth) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games between two teams from mid-major conferences are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Monmouth Sunday.
|11-25-23||Ohio State v. Santa Clara +7.5||86-56||Loss||-110||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +7.5
Santa Clara is absolutely legit this season. The Broncos are off to a 6-0 start this season with two upset wins over Pac-12 teams. They won 89-77 at Stanford as 7.5-point dogs and upset Oregon 88-82 as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral yesterday. I fully expect them to give Ohio State a run for their money tonight.
Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far. The Buckeyes are 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS this season. They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites. That's why their upset win over Alabama as 6.5-point dogs yesterday came out of nowhere. But now the Buckeyes are getting too much respect for that win, and this is now a letdown spot for them. Bet Santa Clara Saturday.
|11-25-23||Illinois-Chicago -1 v. George Washington||89-79||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Illinois-Chicago -1
Illinois-Chicago has been very impressive this season. The Flames are 4-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They only lost by 11 at Cincinnati as 15-point dogs, upset Loyola-Chicago 72-67 as 11.5-point road dogs and crushed Middle Tennessee 70-40 as 3.5-point dogs yesterday. They will still be fresh for this game today which gives them a big advantage over George Washington.
The Revolutionaries will not be fresh for this one. They just went to double-OT to beat Ohio 99-94 yesterday. Three starters played at least 40 minutes for George Washington yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Flames tonight. Bet Illinois-Chicago Saturday.
|11-24-23||Alabama -6 v. Ohio State||Top||81-92||Loss||-110||7 h 50 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Ohio State Emerald Coast Classic No-Brainer on Alabama -6
Alabama is absolutely loaded this season. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while scoring at least 98 points in every game thus far. They beat Morehead State 105-73 as 22-point favorites, topped a very good Indiana State team 102-80 as 18-point home favorites,crushed South Alabama 102-46 as 20.5-point favorites and covered in a 98-67 win over Mercer as 30.5-point favorites. They have covered their first four spreads by a combined 50 points and remain undervalued here.
Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far and the results lead me to believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Alabama. The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS this season. They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites.
Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 November games. The Crimson Tide are 23-13 ATS in their last 36 games as favorites. Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Nate Oats is 12-2 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide. Bet Alabama Friday.
|11-24-23||Texas Tech v. Michigan -2||73-57||Loss||-110||6 h 56 m||Show|
15* Texas Tech/Michigan ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2
The Michigan Wolverines have impressed me this season. They have opened 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over St. John's on the road and Stanford on a neutral yesterday. They also took a very good Memphis team to the wire in a 4-point loss prior to beating Stanford.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are clearly down a couple notches this season. They are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS with some concerning results. They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites. They lost by 16 to Villanova as 3.5-point dogs. They only beat Northern Iowa by 2 as 7-point favorites yesterday. Michigan needs to be favored by more against this squad.
Michigan is 55-33 ATS in its last 88 games as a neutral court favorite or PK. Texas Tech is 46-70 ATS in its last 116 neutral court games. The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4-plus boards per game. Bet Michigan Friday.
|11-23-23||Seton Hall v. USC -4||63-71||Win||100||17 h 47 m||Show|
15* Seton Hall/USC FS1 ANNIHILATOR on USC -4
The USC Trojans have one of the best backcourt tandems in the country in Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier. Ellis is averaging 21.0 points per game while Collier is averaging 21.0 points per game as well.
After beating Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites and then covering against CS-Bakersfield, the Trojans ran into some injuries. Ellis didn't play in their upset loss to UC-Irvine, and Kobe Johnson (15.0 PPG) has missed two games as well. But now both guys are healthy and expected to play in this tournament. There's also a chance the Trojans get the debut of Bronny James, Lebron's son, for this tournament though I'm not expecting it. They don't need him to beat Seton Hall.
While USC has tested themselves already against Kansas State and UC-Irvine, Seton Hall is not prepared for this tournament at all. The Pirates have played the 330th-ranked schedule out of 362 teams. So there's not much you can gather from their 4-0 start against St. Peter's, Farleigh Dickinson, Albany and Wagner. This is a massive step up in class for them, and they will fail.
USC is 14-3 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. Andy Enfield is 13-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of USC. Bet USC Thursday.
|11-23-23||Michigan State v. Arizona -5||Top||68-74||Win||100||15 h 0 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Arizona FOX No-Brainer on Arizona -5
The Arizona Wildcats are absolutely loaded this season. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS despite being favored by 25 points or more four times, they covered all four. They also upset Duke 78-73 as 5-point road underdogs, handing Duke their first loss at Cameron Indoor since current head coach Jon Scheyer took over for Coach K.
That gives these teams a common opponent as Michigan State lost 74-65 as 4-point underdogs on a neutral court to Duke. I think that's a telling sign of how this game is going to go for the Spartans. If they couldn't have with Duke on a neutral, they're certainly not going to be able to hang with Arizona.
Michigan State was also upset 79-76 as 16.5-point home favorites by James Madison earlier this season. This team has been grossly overvalued since opening as a Top 5 team. They don't have shooting as they are hitting just 26.3% from 3-point range this season. Arizona shoots the 3 at a 41.5% clip to compare.
Plays against underdogs (Michigan State) - off a blowout win by 30 points or more against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in five consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Arizona Thursday.
|11-22-23||Bradley -4 v. UTEP||63-59||Push||0||12 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley -4
The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule. They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites. They also beat Tulane 80-77 as 1-point favorites and controlled the game throughout as it only became close late.
UTEP is getting too much respect for its 5-0 start against a much softer schedule. The five wins came against McMurray, U of Oklahoma Science and Arts, UC-Santa Barbara, Austin Pey and Cal. Those last two wins against AP and Cal went to the wire. This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date, while Bradley has already faced three teams that are better than UTEP and beat them all.
Bradley is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite. The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more last game. The Braves are the class of the MVC right alongside Indiana State and Drake. Bet Bradley Wednesday.
|11-22-23||High Point v. Hofstra -5.5||92-97||Loss||-110||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Hofstra -5.5
Hofstra is absolutely loaded this season and it's showing up in this tournament. They beat Buffalo 102-68 as 9.5-point favorites and Wright State 85-76 as 2.5-point favorites the past two days. They have one of the best guard tandems in the country in Thomas (22.0 PPG) and Dubar (19.6 PPG). These guards will lead them to another blowout victory over High Point today.
High Point has had to work much harder for its two victories the past two days beating a rebuilding Iona team 82-68 and then topping Illinois State 74-72 yesterday. This is a big step up in class for them. Keep in mind this team lost to Wofford and Queens prior to this tournament.
Hofstra is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite. Hofstra is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Hofstra Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Indiana State -5.5 v. Pepperdine||Top||90-82||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -5.5
Indiana State is absolutely loaded this season. The Sycamores are 3-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama, which looks like it might be the best team in the country. They beat IUPUI 96-57 as 17.5-point favorites and then Rice 103-88 as 6.5-point favorites yesterday.
Indiana State jumped out to a 55-34 halftime lead on Rice yesterday and was able to coast in the 2nd half to save up for Pepperdine today. No player on Indiana State played more than 29 minutes yesterday, so they are going to be very fresh for Pepperdine.
The Waves are coming off two consecutive blowout losses to UNLV 82-68 as 2.5-point dogs and then UC-Irvine 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs yesterday. Indiana State is better than both of those teams and the class of the MVC right alongside Bradley and Drake. I expect another blowout victory in the Sycamores' favor today.
Indiana State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following two consecutive games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss by 10 points or more. The Waves are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after scoring 60 points or less. Pepperdine is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game. Bet Indiana State Wednesday.
|11-20-23||Connecticut -5.5 v. Texas||Top||81-71||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* UConn/Texas ESPNU No-Brainer on UConn -5.5
The UConn Huskies won the national title last season and are loaded again this season. They are off to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season with all four victories coming by 20 points or more. That includes their 77-57 win as 11-point favorites over Indiana yesterday in the early game.
Since they blew out Indiana, they were able to rest their starters late. They also played the early game yesterday while Texas played the night game. So they got to rest even longer plus watch the Longhorns play after. They will be the fresher team and will have the better game plan coming into this one as a result.
Texas is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall and has been grossly overvalued. After covering by a single point in the opener, they failed to cover by 5 against Delaware State, by 4.5 against Rice and by 16.5 against Louisville. That 81-80 win as 17.5-point favorites over Louisville yesterday was alarming.
Louisville is expected to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country after last season's 4-27 disaster. Louisville was beaten in an exhibition game in the preseason. They only beat UMBC by 1 as 7.5-point favorites and were upset by Chattanooga by 10 as 3.5-point favorites. The fact that the Longhorns needed a buzzer-beater to beat Louisville is all you need to know about the state of their program this season, especially since they are without one of their best players in Dylan Disu.
UConn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral court games. The Huskies are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 games following three consecutive non-conference games. UConn is 19-2 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games. Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 75 points or more in two consecutive games. Bet UConn Monday.
|11-19-23||Kansas State v. Miami-FL -2.5||Top||83-91||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
20* Kansas State/Miami Bahamas Championship No-Brainer on Miami -2.5
The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team. All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 28.8 points, Norchad Omier averaging 14.0 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.0 points and a team-high 5.0 assists.
Bensley Joseph (13.8 PPG, 3.0 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and handled it very well. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists. This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.
Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites. They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to this Bahamas Championship Tournament. But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites. And now I expect them to blast this overrated Kansas State team.
Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year. Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year. The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season. But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.
Kansas State has been unimpressive thus far. The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral. They only beat Bellarmine 83-75 as 16-point favorites in their next game. After beating South Dakota State 91-68 and Providence 73-70 and covering both games, the Wildcats are now getting respect again. But they aren't in the same class as this Miami team, and that will show today. Bet Miami Sunday.
|11-17-23||Arkansas State v. Iowa -20||74-88||Loss||-110||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iowa -20
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 2-1 ATS against the closing line but 3-0 ATS as long as you didn't wait til close to bet them. They beat North Dakota 110-68 as 20.5-point favorites, beat Alabama State 98-67 as closing 31.5-point favorites in the game that you win at all other numbers, and only lost 92-84 as 12-point road dogs at Creighton.
Death, taxes and betting on Iowa at home. Fran McCaffery is 101-63 ATS as a home favorite or PK as the coach of Iowa. McCaffery is 46-21 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Iowa is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points.
Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin in the opener and Iowa is better than Wisconsin. If they can lose by 29 to the Badgers and give up 105 points to a team not known for offense, you can imagine what they'll give up against Iowa today. The Red Wolves allow 90.7 points per game and 55.1% shooting to their opponents while ranking 290th in adjusted defense this season.
The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots per game. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game. Bet Iowa Friday.
|11-17-23||Butler +10 v. Michigan State||54-74||Loss||-105||7 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +10
Thad Matta clearly has his players in place this season to make the Butler Bulldogs a real threat in the Big East. Butler is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season beating Eastern Michigan 94-55 as 16-point favorites, SE Missouri State 91-56 as 20-point favorites and East Tennessee State 81-47 as 17-point favorites. The Bulldogs are grossly undervalued covering the spread by a combined 55 points in those first three games and remain undervalued as 10-point dogs to Michigan State tonight.
Michigan State is grossly overvalued. The Spartans are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season losing outright 76-79 as 16.5-point favorites to James Madison, only beating Southern Indiana 74-51 as 31.5-point favorites and losing to Duke 74-65 on a neutral as 4-point dogs. The Spartans have failed to cover those three spreads by a combined 33 points. Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Bet Butler Friday.
|11-16-23||Missouri v. Minnesota +2||70-68||Push||0||11 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +2
Minnesota has been impressive thus far beating Bethune-Cookman 80-60 as 17.5-point favorites and crushing UTSA 102-76 as 12-point favorites. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 16.5 points in their first two games, so they are undervalued.
Missouri is grossly overvalued thus far. The Tigers are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS this season. They failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 22-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, lost outright as 3-point favorites by 15 at home to Memphis, and only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 18 as 18.5-point favorites. They have failed to cover the spread in those three games by a combined 24 points.
Minnesota four-star freshman Cam Christie made his debut against UTSA and scored 18 points, which was the most points for a true freshman in his Golden Gophers debut since Kris Humphries in 2003. Dawson Garcia averaged 15.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG last season and has upped his game thus far, averaging 22.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG through two games. Isaiah Ihnen is averaging 14.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG after sitting out the past two seasons, so the Gophers are glad to have him back.
Missouri lost a ton of talent from the surprise team that made the NCAA Tournament last season in Dennis Gates' first year on the job. They lost Kobe Brown to the NBA and bring back just one full-time starter. It's no wonder they are struggling to meet expectations in the early going, especially with that 15-point home loss to Memphis being extra alarming. Bet Minnesota Thursday.
|11-14-23||Cal-Irvine v. USC -12.5||70-60||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -12.5
USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the Pac-12 Preseason Player of the Year. They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.
Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score. 7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a health scare and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State. They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.
That has proven to be the case thus far as USC is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS. They beat Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites on a neutral. Kansas State made the Elite 8 last year. They also handled their business in a 85-59 win as 23.5-point favorites over CS-Bakersfield. Ellis and Collier are meshing well and are up there for the best guard tandem in the entire country.
UC-Irvine has a really bad loss already coming 72-64 at San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites. Their 91-74 home win over New Mexico State isn't that impressive when you consider New Mexico State lost by 40 at Kentucky the game prior. Irvine is getting too much respect here and will be in over their heads against this loaded, underrated Trojans team. Bet USC Tuesday.
|11-14-23||Iowa +12.5 v. Creighton||84-92||Win||100||22 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +12.5
Iowa has a nice mix of veterans and young freshman talent and I think this is one of the more underrated teams in the country right now. Iowa opened with a 110-68 win as 20-point favorites over North Dakota and a 98-67 win as closing 31.5-point favorites against Alabama State, though if you bet Iowa prior to close you likely won.
Peyton Sandfort (19.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) has led the way but coach's son Patrick McCaffery (16.5 PPG) looks to be living up to his potential this season. "We respect everybody but we fear no one," McCaffery said leading into this game with Creighton. "We really need to come in and push the envelope. It's a great opportunity to compete. They're a really good team."
Creighton is getting a lot of respect with a Top 10 ranking while bringing back three starters plus adding in Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. They won and covered their first two games against Florida A&M and North Dakota State, so this is clearly a big step up in class for both teams. I just don't think there's as much separation as this 12.5-point spread would indicate. Bet Iowa Tuesday.
|11-14-23||Texas A&M -5.5 v. SMU||79-66||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Texas A&M -5.5
Texas A&M is ranked 13th in the country but they don't get the kind of respect as other top teams. They should be more than 5.5-point favorites here against the rebuilding SMU Mustangs tonight.
Texas A&M is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS beating Texas A&M Commerce 78-46 as 21.5-point favorites. To compare, Texas Tech beat that same team by 27 and Kentucky only beat them by 20. The Aggies then went on the road and beat Ohio State 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs last time out.
SMU is 3-0 against a much softer schedule and have two concerning results already. The Mustangs only beat Southwest Assembly of God 82-63 and Lamar 78-67 as 20-point favorites. They aren't going to be able to hang with a team like Texas A&M given those results.
SMU is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 November games. The Mustangs are 13-30 ATS in their last 43 games as a home dog of 6 points or less or PK. The Aggies are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games overall. Texas A&M is 34-18 ATS in its last 52 games as a road favorite or PK. In Buzz Williams I trust. Bet Texas A&M Tuesday.
|11-13-23||South Dakota State +10.5 v. Kansas State||68-91||Loss||-110||13 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +10.5
Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year. Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year. The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season. But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.
That appears to be the case thus far. The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral in their opener. They struggled to put away Bellarmine in a 83-75 win as 16-point home favorites last time out. That narrow win looks really bad when you consider Bellarmine lost their other game 91-57 as 10.5-point dogs at Washington. And in Washington's other two games, they failed to cover in an 8-point win over Northern Kentucky as 15.5-point favorites and lost outright by 7 as 5.5-point favorites against Nevada.
South Dakota State lost 81-75 at home as 2-point favorites against Akron in their opener. Everyone picked Akron to win the MAC this season, so that wasn't a bad loss at all. This might actually be a step down in class for them tonight. They went on to beat Dakota Wesleyan 83-55 and have had the last four days off to get ready for Kansas State.
South Dakota State is the preseason favorite to win the Summit League. A big reason for that is having Summit League Preseason Player of the Year, Zeko Mayo. He shows his 28-point effort against Akron was no fluke with 28 more against Wesleyan. He and William Kyle III (17 points, 13 rebounds) both had double-doubles. I expect Mayo, Kyle III and the Jackrabbits give the Wildcats a run for their money tonight. Bet South Dakota State Monday.
|11-13-23||Florida International v. Miami-FL -20.5||80-86||Loss||-110||12 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Miami -20.5
The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team. All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 22.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 19.5 points and a team-high 11.0 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 9.5 points and a team-high 6.0 assists.
But the unsung hero is Bensley Joseph, who had an incredible stat line in a 88-72 win over UCF on Friday. He has 15 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals and 4 blocks. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists.
Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites last time out. Now they play a terrible Florida International team that lost 85-62 as 9.5-point dogs at UCF in their opener to give these teams a rare common opponent here early in the season. It was no aberration as FIU went on to lose 82-65 despite being 4.5-point home favorites to Tarleton State. It's not going to go well for the Panthers tonight, either.
FIU is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a home win where they scored 85 points or more. The Hurricanes rank 3rd in the country in average offensive possessions length so they are going to get a ton of shots up on offense, which is why I'm not scared of laying this big number. Bet Miami Monday.
|11-11-23||UL - Lafayette v. Toledo -6.5||78-87||Win||100||18 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -6.5
The Toledo Rockets are a contender in the MAC this season. The won 94-60 as 15.5-point home favorites over Detroit in their opener to continue their ATS dominance over the last several seasons, especially when favored at home.
Louisiana beat Youngstown State 72-62 as 4-point home favorites in their opener. Louisiana is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt. That win over Youngstown State doesn't look at good now after Youngstown State just lost 92-62 at Michigan as 16-point underdogs Friday night.
Toledo is 44-24 ATS in its last 68 games overall. Toledo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games. Bet Toledo Saturday.
|11-10-23||Chattanooga +4 v. Louisville||81-71||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Chattanooga +4
Louisville was the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball last season. They lost nine consecutive games to begin last season and went 4-28 overall. They are likely to be the worst Power 5 team in all of college basketball again in 2023-24.
Louisville lost 71-68 to Kentucky Wesleyan in an exhibition game on October 30th. The Cardinals were life and death in a 94-93 home win over MD-Baltimore Counting as 7.5-point favorites in their official opener. And now they are going to get upset by Chattanooga, which is coming off an 89-44 win over Covenant in their opener. I expect the Monarchs to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
Louisville is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite or PK. The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in their last eight November games. Bet Chattanooga Friday.
|11-08-23||Florida Atlantic -6 v. Loyola-Chicago||75-62||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic -6
The Florida Atlantic Owls went 35-4 last season and made the Final Four. Amazingly, all five starters return from that team in Johnell Davis (13.8 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.4 PPG), Vladislav Golden (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Nick Boyd (8.9 PPG) and Bryan Greenlee (7.3 PPG). It's safe to say this team is going to have a lot of chemistry from the jump.
Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 last season and 4-14 in Atlantic 10 play. No question they will be improved this season, but they are getting too much respect here for a team that just isn't as dominant since losing Porter Moser to Oklahoma. Drew Valentine has not been able to fill the massive shoes he left behind.
Florida Atlantic is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games. Loyola-Chicago is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games overall. Bet Florida Atlantic Wednesday.
|11-07-23||North Dakota v. Iowa -19.5||68-110||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -19.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes dominate in non-conference play every year, especially at home. The Hawkeyes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference home games. They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games overall. Fran McCaffery is 100-62 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of IOwa, including 55-29 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more.
Paul Sather is 11-26 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of North Dakota. Sather is 19-40 ATS in road games as their head coach. North Dakota went 13-20 last season and won't be much better in 2023.
Iowa is undervalued due to losing Kris Murray to the NBA draft. They bring back seniors Tony Perkins and Patrick McCaffery, and junior Payton Sandfort to form a veteran core. The freshman class is a good one with Pryce Sandfort, Brock Harding, Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele.
Freeman will make an immediate impact with his size and skill, and he was teammates with Harding as they won a 4A State Championship together at Moline. Harding was Mr. Basketball in Illinois in 2023. Pryce Sandfort is Payton's younger brother and was Iowa's Mr. Basketball last season. Dembele was a 4-start recruit from Africa and has been crushing it in the weight room, getting up to 260 pounds. Bet Iowa Tuesday.
|11-06-23||USC -2.5 v. Kansas State||Top||82-69||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
20* USC/Kansas State CBB Season Opener on USC -2.5
USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the USC Preseason Player of the Year. They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.
Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score. 7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a healthy scorer and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State. They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.
Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year. Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year. The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season. But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.
This game will be played on a neutral court, but USC will have the crowd advantage with the short trip to Paradise, NV at T-Mobile Arena. Andy Enfield is 9-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of USC. Bet USC Monday.
|04-03-23||San Diego State v. Connecticut -7||Top||59-76||Win||100||45 h 0 m||Show|
20* SDSU/UConn Championship Game No-Brainer on UConn -7
The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best. They are loaded at guard with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).
KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama. They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense. They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 15th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense. Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.
The Huskies have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while COVERING those five games by an average of 16.1 points per game. They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite, by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite and by 13 over Miami as a 5.5-point favorite. We are witnessing one of the greatest teams in NCAA Tournament history.
San Diego State is lucky to be here. The Aztecs snuck by Charleston in the opener, and they became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite 8 and Final 4 games by a single point each. They needed a 14-point comeback against FAU in the 2H to win that game and never led in the 2H until the buzzer. FAU gave up a five offensive rebounds on free throws alone to give the game away.
Well, UConn won't have a problem keeping San Diego State off the glass. The Huskies rank 2nd in offensive rebounding and 63rd in allowing offensive rebounds. San Diego State ranks 76th in offensive rebounding and 68th in allowing offensive rebounds. The Huskies will win the battle on the boards.
But the biggest advantage the Huskies have here is at guard, where their guards are elite and the Aztecs come up short in that department. Matt Bradley has been hit or miss and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%. Their poor shooting is a big reason the Aztecs rank just 218th in effective field goal percentage offense. These guards and San Diego State in general have a lot of heart, but unfortunately they don't have the talent to match that of the Huskies.
I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with four wins by 7 points or fewer. Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%). So those four teams shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament. That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck. FAU shot a more reasonable 9-of-22 (40.9%) against them and are a good shooting team like UConn that can spread you out with four good shooters on the court at all times. The Huskies have made at least nine 3-pointers in all five Tournament games and shoot 36.3% from 3 on the season.
UConn is 16-0 SU & 15-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. It's clear the Big East was a lot better than it got credit for as the Huskies have destroyed everyone outside the conference. It will be more of the same against the overmatched Aztecs as the Huskies pull off yet another dominant win in the Championship Game. Bet UConn Monday.
|04-01-23||Miami-FL v. Connecticut -5||Top||59-72||Win||100||145 h 47 m||Show|
20* Miami/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -5
The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best. They are loaded at guard with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).
KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama. They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted defense. They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 13th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense. Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.
The Huskies have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while covering those four games by an average of 17.8 points per game. They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite and by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite.
Miami needed a 9-point comeback in the final 5 minutes to beat Drake and a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes to beat Texas. They did dominate both Houston and Indiana, and I take nothing away from them for those two victories. No question Miami has the best trio of guards in this tournament, but opponents haven't exploited their biggest weakness, which is their defense, especially on the interior.
Drake, Indiana and Texas were all pretty weak on the interior at least defensively. Texas was without its best big man in Dylan Disu, who was their best player dating back to the start of the NCAA Tournament. UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound rate grabbing 38.5% of its own misses. Miami ranks 104th in adjusted defense, 207th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 179th in allowing offensive rebounds. The Hurricanes will finally get punished for their defensive flaws in the Final 4.
Miami only has one productive big man in Norchad Omier, and he isn't going to be able to contain the three big men of UConn. We saw how much Drew Timme struggled against them for Gonzaga and got into foul trouble and fouled out. Omier will likely get into foul trouble in this one as UConn will keep attacking him with these big men, plus drives to the rim. The Hurricanes are doomed if he gets in foul trouble, and probably doomed even if he doesn't as it's just too tall a task to ask of him to try and hang in the paint with UConn. The Huskies are 28th in average height while the Hurricanes are 224th.
UConn is 15-0 SU & 14-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Clearly, the Big East was better than it got credit for this season. The Huskies are only 5-point favorites here while Houston was an 8-point favorite over Miami. Again, KenPom has the Huskies as the better team than Houston, so comparing past lines there's value here with the favorite. Bet UConn in the Final 4 Saturday.
|04-01-23||Florida Atlantic +2 v. San Diego State||Top||71-72||Win||100||128 h 35 m||Show|
20* FAU/San Diego State Final 4 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +2
I said going into the tournament that the FAU/Memphis winner would make a run to the Elite 8. That's how high I was on both teams. After backing Memphis in the Round of 64 against FAU, I have been on the Owls ever since. They were fortunate to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds against Memphis, and they have been riding that momentum and confidence ever since.
FAU was in a tough spot not being the cinderella against Fairleigh Dickinson, but managed to handle their business in a 78-70 victory. They then came back and upset Tennessee 62-55, beating a Vols team that is very similar to this San Diego State squad. And they made all the clutch free throws they needed to to hold off Kansas State in a 79-76 victory in the Elite 8.
FAU comes out of Conference USA, which is the best mid-major conference in the country. That has been proven with C-USA teams going 17-1 SU in postseason tournaments this season. Charlotte won the CBI, North Texas and UAB will play in the NIT Championship Game, and now FAU is in the Final 4. The Owls have been more battle-tested than they get credit for playing in such a tough conference, and now with four consecutive wins in the NCAA Tournament to get here.
FAU has very few weaknesses. They rank 24th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense. They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage offense and 15th in effective field goal percentage defense. They have five players on the court at all times that can hit 3-pointers. Their four guard lineups are tough to tame, and versatile big man Vladislav Goldin (10.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 62.7% FG's) is a matchup nightmare. They go nine deep and all seven guards shoot at least 32.3% from 3, and four of the top five shoot at least 36.6% from 3.
A lot has been made about San Diego State's 3-point defense, but they haven't faced a team that can shoot it like FAU and is as versatile. I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with three wins by 7 points or fewer. Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%). So the four teams they have faced have shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament. That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck. I think their luck runs out against FAU.
Guard play wins in the tournament, and the Aztecs don't have the best guards. Matt Bradley has been lost the last couple games and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%. San Diego State is brutal on offense and goes on long scoring droughts, and one of those is going to be costly against FAU. San Diego State ranks 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage on offense.
Florida Atlantic is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Owls are 10-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season. The other three Mountain West teams all lost their first NCAA Tournament games and the MWC is now 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games. All four wins belong to SDSU this tournament. I'll gladly side with C-USA over MWC in this game as FAU is the better team in my opinion with fewer weaknesses and should not be the underdog. Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.
|03-28-23||Utah Valley +2 v. UAB||Top||86-88||Push||0||117 h 56 m||Show|
20* Utah Valley/UAB NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley +2
I've been riding Conference USA in the NIT and the NCAA Tournament, but I think it's time to fade the conference here and go against UAB. Not because I don't think the Blazers are good, I just think Utah Valley is better and the wrong team is favored here.
Utah Valley is 28-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah. They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.
Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs. They finally got to play a home game and took advantage, topping Cincinnati 74-68 as 1.5-point favorites. That was previously the biggest game in program history, and now this will be the biggest game in program history in the semifinals.
One hidden factor here is that this will essentially feel like a home game for Utah Valley State being played in Las Vegas. Fans will be making the 5-hour trek to Las Vegas to support their team. Nobody from UAB is driving the 26 hours to Vegas. They may fly, but I can't see them having nearly the support that the Wolverines do.
The Wolverines are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games overall. The Blazers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS win. UAB had the much easier path to get here beating Southern Miss and Morehead State at home as well as a short-handed Vanderbilt team on the road. Utah Valley had three better wins than them and are more battle-tested. Bet Utah Valley Tuesday.
|03-28-23||Wisconsin v. North Texas -1||Top||54-56||Win||100||126 h 35 m||Show|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas -1
Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season. C-USA is now 15-1 SU in all tournament games this season. Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Final 4 as of this writing. That easily could have been North Texas instead.
North Texas was dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20. The Mean Green then went on the road and upset Oklahoma State by 6 as 4.5-point dogs. The Mean Green are now 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Wisconsin benefited from a pretty easy path to get here. They beat Bradley and Liberty (by 4) at home before going on the road and upsetting Oregon 61-58. But Oregon was without three of its best players, and that line was steamed from Wisconsin +5 down to +1.5 after the news came out. Yet the Badgers were still life and death with the Ducks.
This will be Wisconsin's stiffest test yet, and the Big Ten only had one team remaining in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State lost to Kansas State to go to the Elite 8. Wisconsin is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win. The Badgers are 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. This is one of the biggest games in program history for the Mean Green, and not only are they the better team, but they simply want it more. Bet North Texas Tuesday.
|03-24-23||Xavier v. Texas -4||71-83||Win||100||54 h 18 m||Show|
15* Xavier/Texas Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -4
The Texas Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won six consecutive games and are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. That includes a pair of blowout wins over Kansas by 20 in the Big 12 Tournament and by 16 at home.
The Longhorns now go back to Kansas City for the Sweet 16, a familiar venue for them as they just won the Big 12 Tournament there by beating Oklahoma State by 14, TCU by 6 and Kansas by 20. They are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Kansas City, and their familiarity with the venue is a hidden advantage as it will feel like a home game for them.
Xavier is overvalued after an easy path to the Sweet 16. They needed a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes against Kennesaw State to win 72-67. Then they beat a Pittsburgh team 84-73 that arguably shouldn't have even been in the NCAA Tournament. This is a big step up in class for Xavier compared to what they have faced thus far, while Texas fended off a red hot Penn State team that was playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten down the stretch.
Texas has no weakness ranking 5th in KenPom at 15th in adjusted offense while 10th in adjusted defense. Xavier is an elite offensive team, but they struggle on the other end ranking 64th in adjusted defense. I always like backing the better defensive team in the NCAA Tournament given the choice. Dylan Disu will dominate the paint in this one. He is shooting 72.2% while averaging 17.8 points and 9 rebounds per game since the start of the Big 12 Tournament. The Musketeers have nobody inside that can match up with him, plus Texas has three elite guards which wins in the tournament as well. Bet Texas Friday.
|03-24-23||San Diego State v. Alabama -7||71-64||Loss||-115||51 h 50 m||Show|
15* San Diego State/Alabama Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -7
I've faded the Mountain West with success for years in the NCAA Tournament. It work out well with all teams not named San Diego State this season, but the Aztecs will be taking a big step up in class here against the most complete team in all of college basketball.
The Mountain West is 2-13 SU & 2-13 ATS in the last 15 NCAA Tournament games. The Mountain West is also 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in the last six Sweet 16 games. This conference has been grossly overvalued for years, and the Aztecs aren't about to break that trend in the Sweet 16 here. They beat two of the worst teams in the tournament in Charleston and Furman to get here.
Now they face an Alabama team that ranks 18th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense. They have no weaknesses. San Diego State ranks 70th in adjusted offense and doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide if they fall behind. Maryland tried to muck it up last round against Alabama and was blown out 73-51. San Diego State will try to muck it up too, but they just aren't on the same level as Alabama.
These teams have a common opponent in Arkansas. San Diego State lost 78-74 to Arkansas on a neutral, while Alabama won both meetings with the Razorbacks by a combined 18 points this season. If Arkansas got 78 points on them, Alabama can certainly do more damage offensively as they are much better shooting team than the Razorbacks.
This will feel like a home game for Alabama being played in Louisville, Kentucky while San Diego State has to travel clear across the country here. Alabama is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season, winning by an average of 21.6 points per game in this spot. The Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points and are getting way too much respect following the blowout win over Furman. Bet Alabama Friday.
|03-23-23||Gonzaga +2 v. UCLA||79-76||Win||100||47 h 51 m||Show|
15* Gonzaga/UCLA Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga +2
The UCLA Bruins are without their best defensive player in Jaylen Clark (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 SPG). Adam Bona (7.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG) is playing through a shoulder injury, and David Singleton (9.1 PPG) suffered a bad ankle injury in the Round of 32 and is very questionable to play against Gonzaga.
The Bruins were able to survive a 68-63 scare from Northwestern last round, but they won't be so fortunate as they take a big step up in class here against Gonzaga while dealing with all these injuries. The Bulldogs have made relatively easy work of both Grand Canyon and TCU, but the Horned Frogs made a late comeback to make the final score seemed closer than it really was.
Gonzaga comes in playing its best basketball of the season riding an 11-game winning streak. That includes a pair of dominant wins over St. Mary's 77-68 at home and 77-51 in the WCC Championship Game. St. Mary's plays a similar grind it out style to UCLA.
UCLA is ranked 3rd in KenPom right now, which has them inflated as a favorite here. But they aren't the 3rd-best team in the country. I would have a handful of teams ranked ahead of them, including Gonzaga given their current injury situation. And UCLA hasn't seen an offense as potent as Gonzaga all season. The Bulldogs rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 1st in effective field goal percentage. They are also 12th in turnover rate so they don't beat themselves. They shoot 38.4% from 3 and 52.6% from 2 while averaging 87.3 points per game.
This game will be played in Las Vegas, and Gonzaga just won the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas. They always get tremendous fan support there and it will feel like a home game for them. UCLA is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams that shoot 48% or better, and 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game. Bet Gonzaga Thursday.
|03-23-23||Florida Atlantic +5.5 v. Tennessee||Top||62-55||Win||100||82 h 9 m||Show|
20* FAU/Tennessee Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +5.5
Everyone was on Duke last week including myself. But I didn't plan for big man Mark Mitchell getting injured in practice the day before the game and sitting out. They missed his big body against Tennessee, a physical team that relies on defense to win games.
Now the Volunteers are starting to get respect from oddsmakers this week after beating Duke. But this team is a fraud and it will rear its ugly head here in the Sweet 16 against Florida Atlantic. The Volunteers are still just 7-7 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall and without their starting PG in Zakai Zeigler. They are one of the worst offensive teams left in this tournament, which makes it tough for them to get margin. That showed up in a 58-55 win over Louisiana in the opener.
Florida Atlantic is 33-3 this season and came out of one of the best mid-major conferences in the country. Both North Texas and UAB were NCAA Tournament-worthy, and the Owls outlasted both. North Texas and UAB are both making runs in the NIT as of this writing to show how good this conference really is. So I think FAU has played a tougher schedule than it gets credit for.
The win over Memphis was a really good one as the Tigers were playing as well as almost anyone in the country. They had beaten Houston in the AAC ChampionshIp Game, and I expected them to make a deep run in the tournament. I was pissed they got matched up with FAU because I figured the winner of that game had a great chance to make a deep run and beat Purdue. Well, Fairleigh Dickinson did that for them both in the opening round.
FAU instead of playing the cinderella actually played the role of hated favorite against FDU as the entire country was rooting against them. That was a tough spot for them to be in, and they handled it well pulling away late to beat FDU 78-70. Now they can get back to being that cinderella role and playing with a chip on their shoulder getting a chance to face a Power 6 team.
KenPom has Tennessee ranked 6th right now with Florida Atlantic 22nd. Tennessee being power-rated too highly has them overvalued. The Vols have scored 71 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall. They should be ranked much worse than 60th in adjusted offense. They will struggle to get anything easy against a FAU defense that ranks 35th in adjusted defense and 15th in effective field goal percentage.
Rick Barnes is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 NCAA Tournament games. Florida Atlantic is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Owls are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall. Florida Atlantic is 8-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season. Bet Florida Atlantic Thursday.
|03-23-23||Arkansas v. Connecticut -3.5||Top||65-88||Win||100||80 h 44 m||Show|
25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn -3.5
The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best. They are loaded at guard with Hawkins (15.9 PPG), Newton (10.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.2 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).
The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses. That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it. He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation. UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted defense.
Arkansas is getting a lot of respect after upsetting Kansas. But Kansas was a fraud No. 1 seed along with Purdue. KenPom had Kansas ranked five spots below UConn and they probably should have been worse with the way they played to finish the season. Arkansas is ranked 18th according to KenPom while St. Mary's was 12th, yet UConn is a shorter favorite against Arkansas than they were against KenPom. That's value.
The matchup is a good one for the Huskies. Arkansas consistently tries to get to the room and get fouled or get layups because they are a terrible shooting team. They rank 317th in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.3%. UConn is 19th in the country in 2-point defense at 45.4%. They are 24th in block percentage and have the big men inside that won't allow Arkansas to get easy buckets at the rim like Kansas and Illinois did.
Even then, Arkansas shot just 38.1% against Illinois and 41.4% against Kansas and now faces a better defensive team here in UConn. Arkansas ranks 138th in allowing offensive rebounds defensively, while UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding. Winning the battle on the glass will also be a key factor in the Huskies running away with this game.
UConn is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 11 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette. That includes blowout wins by 24 over Iona and by 15 over St. Mary's to start the NCAA Tournament. UConn is 12-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Bet UConn Thursday.
|03-22-23||Utah Valley v. Cincinnati||Top||74-68||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
20* Utah Valley/Cincinnati NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley PK
Utah Valley is 27-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah. They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.
Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs. Now they get to host Cincinnati in the Quarterfinals, and this is the biggest game in program history. It will be a tremendous atmosphere, and these kids would love nothing more than to play in Las Vegas for the NIT Semis.
Cincinnati has also been impressive in beating Virginia Tech and Hofstra thus far. I don't want to take anything away from them, but I just think it means more for Utah Valley. We also saw Utah Valley beat both BYU and Oregon on the road in the non-conference as they really tested themselves.
I think a hidden factor here is that Cincinnati is listed as the bottom team in the rotation order, so many think Cincinnati is the home team here. I think we're getting value because of that flaw with Utah Valley actually being the home team instead. The Wolverines are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Wolverines are 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. Bet Utah Valley Wednesday.
|03-21-23||North Texas +4.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||65-59||Win||100||9 h 36 m||Show|
20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +4.5
Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season. Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Sweet 16. That easily could have been North Texas instead.
North Texas has been dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20. Oklahoma State has been much more lackluster, beating Youngstown State by 5 and Eastern Washington by 11. I think the Cowboys get caught here and lose this game outright to the Mean Green, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
The Cowboys are 4-6 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued. The Mean Green are 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. North Texas is 23-9-3 ATS in its last 35 road games. Bet North Texas Tuesday.
|03-19-23||Creighton v. Baylor||85-76||Loss||-110||30 h 26 m||Show|
15* Creighton/Baylor TBS ANNIHILATOR on Baylor PK
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Baylor Bears after going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games to close out the season. They lost three times to Iowa State this season, including two during this stretch as the Cyclones were a bad matchup for them. They also had road losses at Kansas and at Kansas State during this stretch.
A big reason for their struggles was the injury to leading scorer Keyonte George (15.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG). But George returned for the Big 12 Tournament, and the early exit to Iowa State was actually a good thing because it gave his ankle even more time to rest. Baylor has arguably the best trio of guards in the country in George, Flagler (15.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Cryer (14.5 PPG), and guards win in the NCAA Tournament.
I took advantage and backed Baylor as a top play as 10.5-point favorites in a 74-56 win over UC-Santa Barbara in the opener. And I'll 'buy low' on them again as a PK against Creighton as they are clearly the better team in my opinion, and they'll win this game comfortable.
Creighton has been overvalued all season after opening the season ranked in the Top 10 and considered a national title contender. All they have done is disappoint, including a 22-point loss to Xavier in the Big East Tournament. They needed a late surge to beat a bad NC State team that had no business being in the NCAA Tournament anyway in the opening round.
They were life and dead with the Wolfpack despite them shooting just 3-of-14 (21%) from 3. Baylor won't let them off the hook like NC State did. The Bears make 10 3's per game at a 37.1% clip on the season. They rank 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency and 31st in 3-point shooting. Creighton ranks 167th in defending the 3-pointer.
Baylor is 7-1 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games. I believe the Bears have the coaching advantage with Scott Drew over Greg McDermott as well, and that's key with these teams only having a day to prepare for one another. I'll side with the tougher Big 12 over the weaker Big East in this matchup as well. Bet Baylor Sunday.
|03-19-23||St. Mary's v. Connecticut -3||Top||55-70||Win||100||43 h 54 m||Show|
20* St. Mary's/UConn TNT No-Brainer on UConn -3
The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best. They are loaded at guard with Hawkins (16.0 PPG), Newton (10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG), Karaban (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).
The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses. That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it. He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation.
What I don't agree with is KenPom having St. Mary's ranked 12th, which is why the Gaels get so much respect from the books. But they lack the athleticism of UConn and will struggle to defend them and to score against their length. The Huskies rank 28th in average height. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the country and their ability to win the battle on the glass will be a key factor here.
UConn is 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 10 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette. UConn is 11-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. St. Mary's is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game. The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
This is essentially a home game for UConn being played in Albany, NY. St. Mary's had the furthest travel of any team in the NCAA Tournament from the West Coast to the East Coast. That's another hidden factor in favor of the Huskies here, and I don't think it's being priced into this number enough as they are clearly the better team as well. Bet UConn Sunday.
|03-18-23||Maryland v. Alabama -8||Top||51-73||Win||100||46 h 53 m||Show|
20* Maryland/Alabama TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Alabama -8
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the best team in the country, period. They are still very fresh right now as they have won four consecutive blowouts en route to winning the SEC Tournament and advancing to the Round of 32. They beat Mississippi State by 23, Missouri by 11, Texas A&M by 19 and Texas A&M CC by 21.
The fact that they're still fresh is why I'm willing to lay the 8 points here with them against Maryland. The Terrapins needed a double-digit comeback to beat West Virginia 67-65. That was more WVU bad than Maryland good, and I think the Terrapins are getting too much respect for that win. Alabama should be favored by double-digits here.
That was a rare win for the Terrapins away from home. They went 2-9 SU in true road games this season with their two wins coming against two of the worst Power 5 teams in college basketball in Minnesota and Louisville. This will essentially be a home game for the Crimson Tide being played in Birmingham.
Alabama is 7-0 ATS vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Crimson Tide have a big coaching advantage with Nate Oats over Kevin Willard today as well. I trust Oats to get his team ready for this game in only two days over Willard. Bet Alabama Saturday.
|03-18-23||Northwestern +8 v. UCLA||63-68||Win||100||43 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northwestern +8
Injuries to UCLA are going to catch up to them sooner rather than later. After making easy work of UNC-Asheville in their opener, I think this is where the injuries catch up to them as they take a big step up in class here against the Northwestern Wildcats.
Jaylen Clark (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG) is one of the best big men in the country and suffered a season-ending injury in the Pac-12 Tournament. Fellow big man Adem Bona (7.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) is nursing a shoulder injury and is highly questionable to play today. That leaves the Bruins very thin on the inside, and if they win this game it won't be by margin, so getting 8 points with the Wildcats is a very nice value.
This will be more of a guard-oriented matchup, and Northwestern has two stud guards in Boo Buie (17.3 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Chase Audige (14.0 PPG) who can match up with Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell of the Bruins. Keep in mind UCLA lost to fellow Big Ten opponent Illinois 79-70 on a neutral earlier this season. Northwestern beat Illinois by 13 at home and lost to the Fighting Illini by 4 on the road to give us a common opponent.
Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a game as a favorite this season. The Wildcats went 9-6 SU & 11-4 ATS in all games played away from home this season and were one of the best road teams in the country. Bet Northwestern Saturday.
|03-18-23||Duke -2 v. Tennessee||Top||52-65||Loss||-110||39 h 35 m||Show|
25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -2
I've been fading Tennessee all season with a ton of success. But I think this is my favorite spot of the season to fade Tennessee despite all that success. Duke is rolling right now, and Tennessee is reeling. So getting Duke as only a 2-point favorite given all the factors in their favor is a nice value.
Tennessee has been overvalued due to ranking as one of the best defensive teams in the country. However, they are a terrible offensive team, especially now without starting PG Zakai Zeigler. They went on a big scoring drought Thursday and let Louisiana back in it, eventually winning 58-55 as 11.5-point favorites. And that was a good matchup for them. The Volunteers are now 6-7 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Duke is playing as well as anyone in the country right now. The Blue Devils have won 10 consecutive games while also going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning by 5 as 4-point dogs at UNC, beating Pitt by 27 as 5.5-point favorites, beating Miami by 7 as 2.5-point favorites, beating Virginia by 10 as 3-point favorites and crushing Oral Roberts by 23 as 5.5-point favorites.
Duke played the early game Thursday and made easy work of Oral Roberts, so they'll be fresh for this one. Short-handed Tennessee had to go to the wire with Louisiana in the late game Thursday, so they'll be far from fresh. I love taking the fresher team that played the early game in the Round of 32. They got to scout Tennessee in the late game while watching from the stands which is a hidden advantage.
Rick Barnes is 2-14 ATS his his last 16 NCAA Tournament games. The Volunteers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games. Barnes continues coming up short in these situations time and time again, and he has his hands full with this short-handed Vols team this year going up against a juggernaut in the Blue Devils. Bet Duke Saturday.
|03-18-23||Furman +6 v. San Diego State||Top||52-75||Loss||-110||36 h 19 m||Show|
20* Furman/San Diego State CBS No-Brainer on Furman +6
The Furman Paladins have that confident feeling after stealing victory from the jaws of defeat against Virginia. They were down 4 with seconds remaining, hit two free throws and got a steal and a game-winning 3-pointer. They won despite their best player Mike Bothwell (17.8 PPG) fouling out and playing only 20 minutes while being in foul trouble the entire game. I love the confidence they'll be playing with going into this game against a very similar San Diego State team, and having Bothwell for 40 minutes will make them even better.
I also love fading Mountain West teams, and I faded all four already in the NCAA Tournament and went 3-1 ATS. It would have been 4-0 ATS if not for a bullshit foul call on Charleston +5.5 with 0.7 seconds left that allowed San Diego State to make both free throws and win by 6. I'm not bitter or anything.
Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountain West is now 1-13 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games with the lone cover being that San Diego State miracle on Thursday. It's crazy how lucky this SDSU team has been in close games this season as they simply aren't very good. The Aztecs now have a whopping 10 wins by 6 points or less this season, and I think this game will go down to the wire as well, so getting 6 points is a nice value.
One hidden factor here that goes against the Aztecs is that this is a 12:10 EST start time, which makes it a 9:10 AM body clock game for San Diego State. They aren't used to playing this early in the day, and I think it will be a shock to the system for them. I think the Aztecs will start slow and struggle to recover to beat Furman, let alone beat them by 6-plus points. Bet Furman Saturday.
|03-17-23||Florida Atlantic v. Memphis -2||66-65||Loss||-110||95 h 36 m||Show|
15* FAU/Memphis TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis -2
I was pissed when I found out Memphis and Florida Atlantic were matched up in the opening round. I was going to take both to make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament because I think very highly of both. I just so happen to think a lot more highly of Memphis, and thus I think there's value on the Tigers as 2-point favorites.
Nobody is playing better than Memphis heading into the NCAA Tournament. They avenged two regular season losses to Tulane with a an emphatic 94-54 win over the Green Wave in the AAC Tournament semifinals. They followed it up by avenging a pair of close losses to Houston in the regular season with a 75-65 win in the AAC Championship Game. They controlled that game from start to finish and it was never close, and most believe Houston is the best team in the country right alongside Alabama.
The Tigers are as healthy as they have been all season and playing up to their potential. They have one of the best guards in the country in Kendric Davis (22.1 PPG, 5.6 APG, 2.0 SPG). DeAndre Williams (17.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is a great compliment to Davis. And they have a bunch of key role players that play their roles well as Penny Hardaway has this team hitting on all cylinders going into the Big Dance. Remember, Memphis gave Gonzaga all they wanted in the second round last season and nearly pulled off the upset.
Florida Atlantic put together an impressive 31-3 season. But they did lose by 13 to Ole Miss in the non-conference, and my biggest problem with the Owls is that they played a very easy schedule. They had narrow wins by 4 of Louisiana Tech without their best player and Middle Tennessee by 3 in two of their last four games as well. They rank 61st in the luck factor, which means they had a ton of close wins throughout the season. They went 7-1 in games decided by 4 points or fewer.
Memphis is battle-tested and ready for this moment, while the bright lights may be too big for the Owls, who will be making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2002 and this will be just their second appearance ever. Memphis is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games in March. The Tigers are 32-8 ATS in their last 40 games following an upset conference win. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. teams that win more than 80% of their games this season. Bet Memphis Friday.
|03-17-23||Drake +2.5 v. Miami-FL||Top||56-63||Loss||-110||93 h 48 m||Show|
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +2.5
The Drake Bulldogs are a veteran team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. They won a deep Missouri Valley conference this season with a blowout 77-51 win over Bradley on May 5th. They've had nearly two weeks to rest up and sharpen their system and are a very dangerous out for anyone in the NCAA Tournament.
Sophomore Tucker DeVries (19.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) is the coach's son and does it all for this team. He is surrounded by four senior starters including PG Roman Penn (12.6 PPG, 5.4 APG), who played for Siena in 2017 and has been around forever. These guys have been through a ton of wars together and have as good of chemistry as any team in the NCAA Tournament.
The ACC was way down this season, and I think Miami is overrated. The Hurricanes are a great offensive team but a terrible defensive team, ranking 131st in the country in adjusted defense. Forward Norchad Omier (13.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG) suffered a bad ankle injury in the loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament and left the game early. He is unlikely to play, and even if he does he won't be near 100%. That's a big blow to the Hurricanes, especially defensively where they were already lacking.
Drake is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games overall and playing as well as anyone in the country. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Hurricanes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall which includes a pair of 2-point wins over Pitt and Wake Forest and an upset home loss to Florida State as 13-point favorites. Bet Drake Friday.
|03-17-23||UC-Santa Barbara v. Baylor -10.5||Top||56-74||Win||100||86 h 24 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -10.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Baylor Bears after going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. They lost three times to Iowa State this season, including two during this stretch as the Cyclones were a bad matchup for them. They also had road losses at Kansas and at Kansas State during this stretch.
A big reason for their struggles was the injury to leading scorer Keyonte George (15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG). But George returned for the Big 12 Tournament, and the early exit to Iowa State could actually be a good thing because it gives his ankle even more time to rest. Baylor has arguably the best trio of guards in the country in George, Flagler (15.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Cryer (14.5 PPG), and guards win in the NCAA Tournament.
UC-Santa Barbara won the Big West, which is one of the worst conferences in the country. They played a very easy non-conference schedule and even lost to Northern Arizona by 9 as 9-point favorites and Duquesne by 11 as 3.5-point dogs. This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date.
We'll 'sell high' on the Guachos, who are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall against Big West competition. Scott Drew is one of the best head coaches in the country, and the Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. The Bears bounce back in blowout fashion in the opening round. Bet Baylor Friday.
|03-16-23||Northern Kentucky v. Houston -19||52-63||Loss||-110||70 h 14 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston -19
Houston would be a bigger favorite over Northern Kentucky had they won the AAC Tournament. But their best player in Marcus Sasser (17.1 PPG) sat out the championship game against Memphis, and they lost to a Memphis team that just seems to have their number and matches up well with them. Northern Kentucky does not match up well with Houston.
The Cougars should make easy work of NKU here thanks to a matchup advantage that shows them as one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country up against one of the worst defensive rebounding teams. NKU plays a zone defense that gives up a ton of offensive rebounds. Houston is 4th in offensive rebounding rate while NKU is 333rd in allowing offensive rebounds.
The Cougars are likely to get Sasser back for this game, but it's not going to matter. Northern Kentucky lost by 22 to Kent State, by 21 to Florida Gulf Coast, by 13 to Toledo, by 21 to Washington State and by 15 to Florida Atlantic in the non-conference. Houston has a way of blowing out overmatched competition. The Horizon League is way down this season and Horizon League teams have not fared well at all in recent NCAA Tournaments.
Northern Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season. Houston is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game. Houston is 49-17-1 ATS in its last 67 games following an ATS loss. I think it was a good thing the Cougars lost to Memphis in the AAC Championship Game because it will have them refocused and not taking this game lightly. Bet Houston Thursday.
|03-16-23||College of Charleston +5.5 v. San Diego State||Top||57-63||Loss||-110||75 h 17 m||Show|
20* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on College of Charleston +5.5
Mountain West teams are 1-12 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016. They are also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament. The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.
Admittedly, San Diego State is the best of the four Mountain West teams this season. But they are also the biggest favorites of the four, and I think there is value in fading the Aztecs here. They went 27-6 this season and dominated MWC competition, but didn't fare so well when they stepped up in competition outside the conference.
They lost by 17 to Arizona on a neutral, by 4 to Arkansas on a neutral and by 7 to St. Mary's on a neutral. They also only beat BYU by 7 as 11-point home favorites. The Aztecs rank 73rd in the country in the luck factor and won a ton of close games this season. They had nine wins by 6 points or less this season.
College of Charleston went 31-3 this season with only one loss by more than 4 points all season, which came at UNC in their second game of the season. That makes for a 33-1 system backing the Cougars pertaining to this 5.5-point spread. They beat the likes of Richmond, Davidson, Colorado State, Virginia Tech and Kent State in the non-conference to prove themselves. They are an elite offensive team averaging 80.8 points per game and are better than they get credit for defensively, ranking 71st in adjusted defense while yielding 67.4 points per game.
San Diego State is 1-7 ATS following four or more consecutive wins this season. Charleston is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS loss. This is a tough travel spot for the Aztecs having to travel to Florida to play an early start time. The Cougars will will have the home-court advantage. Bet College of Charleston Thursday.
|03-16-23||Furman +5.5 v. Virginia||68-67||Win||100||73 h 33 m||Show|
15* Furman/Virginia TruTV Early ANNIHILATOR on Furman +5.5
Furman is a finesse team that is elite on offense and just average on defense. It would have been a bad matchup for them if they got paired with a big-time athletic team. But this is a perfect matchup for them against a Virginia team that lacks athletes and plays at a snail's pace.
Furman ranks 33rd in adjusted offense, 10th in effective field goal percentage and 1st in 2-point percentage. They are an extremely efficient team. They went 27-7 this season with only three losses all season by more than 5 points. They took a similar Penn State team to the wire in a 5-point loss on a neutral.
Virginia has not been impressive at all here down the stretch. They have lost three of their last seven, getting upset by 15 at Boston College as 9-point favorites, losing by 8 at UNC and losing by 10 to Duke in the ACC Championship. They just lost Ben Vander Plas (7.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG) to a season-ending injury. He averages 25 minutes per game and is a key cog on this team, so it's a big loss for them. They lost him going into the ACC Tournament.
Furman is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game. The Paladins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games. Bet Furman Wednesday.
|03-15-23||Arizona State -2 v. Nevada||Top||98-73||Win||100||57 h 4 m||Show|
20* Arizona State/Nevada First Four No-Brainer on Arizona State -2
Mountain West teams are 1-11 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016. They are also 0-9 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament. The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.
The most shocking of the four was Nevada, which had no business making the big dance after closing the season going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their final three games. They got upset by 9 as 5-point favorites at Wyoming, upset by 2 as 8-point home favorites to UNLV and upset by 4 as 4-point favorites in the MWC Tournament opener to San Jose State. That loss certainly should have knocked them out of the big dance and allowed one of Rutgers, Clemson or Oklahoma State to get in.
But we'll take advantage on the Wolf Pack's good fortune here and fade them in the First Four. They take on Arizona State from the Pac-12, a team that came up with two huge victories in the Pac-12 Tournament to punch their ticket. They also upset Arizona on the road late in the season to get in and are playing much better than Nevada right now.
Arizona State was impressive in the non-conference picking up wins over VCU, Michigan, and Creighton. Nevada lost to Kansas State by 9, Loyola-Marymount by 12 and Oregon by 13 in the non-conference. So they lost to a worse Pac-12 team than ASU in Oregon in blowout fashion. ASU beat Oregon by 17 on the road and lost by 5 to them at home to compare.
Arizona State is 6-0 ATS in road games following a loss by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. Bet Arizona State Monday.
|03-14-23||Mississippi State v. Pittsburgh +2.5||59-60||Win||100||24 h 60 m||Show|
15* Mississippi State/Pittsburgh First Four ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +2.5
It has been a bad look for Mississippi State to close out the season and they were fortunate to make the NCAA Tournament. They are 2-2 SU but 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. The two wins weren't impressive as they beat lowly South Carolina by 6 as 15.5-point favorites and Florida by 1 in OT as 5-point favorites on a neutral.
That was a Florida team that didn't have their best player in Colin Castleton and have been struggling without him. They also lost at Vanderbilt by 5 as 3.5-point favorites against a Commodores team that was also missing their best player in Liam Robbins. Then the Bulldogs took a step up in class in the SEC Tournament and were blasted by 23 by Alabama as 8-point dogs.
Pittsburgh's last three losses have all coming on the road with two in the role of underdog against Miami and Duke. The Panthers knocked off what has been a red hot Georgia Tech team by 8 in the ACC Tournament prior to losing to Duke, which is the hottest team in the ACC. I think they come in undervalue here after that loss to Duke and should not be the underdogs.
Of course, Pittsburgh has been undervalued all season going 22-10-1 ATS in all games this season. The Panthers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The Bulldogs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games. I also think the Panthers have the coaching edge here with Jeff Capel over Chris Jans. They will have more fans here with the short trip from Pittsburgh to Dayton. And they have an extra day of rest after last playing on Thursday while Mississippi State last played on Friday. Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.
|03-12-23||Memphis +6 v. Houston||Top||75-65||Win||100||5 h 12 m||Show|
20* Memphis/Houston AAC No-Brainer on Memphis +6
The Memphis Tigers are the one team that have pushed the Houston Cougars to the brink in the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with only one loss by double-digits during this stretch.
They lost by 8 at Houston and by 2 at home to the Cougars in their two meetings this season, including a buzzer-beater at home on March 5th just a week ago today. They want revenge from that loss, and I think there's a ton of value getting them at +6 here in the 3rd and final meeting in a game that will likely be decided in the final seconds again.
Memphis is fresh and ready to go after a 94-54 blowout victory over Tulane yesterday. They avenged two regular season losses to the Green Wave and are in the same situation here again today. Houston may be without leading scorer Marcus Sasser (17.0 PPG, 61.1% FG's), who suffered a groin injury in the first half against Cincinnati yesterday and likely will rest for the NCAA Tournament. Bet Memphis Sunday.
|03-11-23||Kent State +1 v. Toledo||93-78||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kent State +1
The Kent State Golden Flashes have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season. They have gone 27-6 SU & 20-10-1 ATS this season and have been the best team in the MAC this season. They are being disrespected here again as underdogs to Toledo in the MAC Championship Game.
Toledo has had to work a lot harder than Kent State has the past two days to beat Miami Ohio and Ohio. Kent State crushed Northern Illinois by 19 before being in control the entire game against Akron and settling for a 79-73 victory. All five starters played at least 29 minutes yesterday for Toledo, while two starters played 22 minutes or fewer for Kent State as they are the deeper team and can handle this 3rd game in 3 days better than Toledo.
Kent State is 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Toledo. That includes a 75-63 home win over Toledo as 4-point favorites in their lone meeting this season. It should be more of the same in the rematch here. The Golden Flashes are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win. Bet Kent State Saturday.
|03-11-23||Texas v. Kansas -2||Top||76-56||Loss||-110||8 h 10 m||Show|
20* Texas/Kansas Big 12 No-Brainer on Kansas -2
The Kansas Jayhawks won the Big 12 regular season title and now look to capture the sweep by winning the conference tournament. They are a better team than Texas and should be more than 2-point favorites considering this is essentially a home game for them being played in Kansas City.
Kansas also wants revenge from a 59-75 loss at Texas in the regular season finale. I was on Texas in that game because I knew the Jayhawks were in a letdown spot after clinching the Big 12 title the game prior. They indeed let down and weren't competitive. They will be fully locked in for this one with another title on the line, and their best effort is better that of Texas.
Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last six conference tournament games. Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive conference wins. The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS after winning three of their last four games this season. Bet Kansas Saturday.
|03-11-23||Utah State v. San Diego State -1.5||57-62||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* Utah State/San Diego State MWC ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1.5
Utah State played the final game on the board last night that finished around midnight. The Aggies needed a double-digit comeback to beat Boise State. Now they have to come back and play at 3:00 local time this afternoon and won't have much left in the tank for San Diego State.
Meanwhile, the San Diego State Aztecs made easy work of the San Jose State Spartans in a 64-49 victory the game prior. They have had extra time to rest and this early start time won't be an issue for them.
San Diego State swept the season series winning 85-75 at home and 63-61 on the road, so they clearly match up well with Utah State. San Diego State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game. Utah State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games. Bet San Diego State Saturday.
|03-11-23||Penn State v. Indiana -3||Top||77-73||Loss||-115||6 h 2 m||Show|
20* Penn State/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana -3
Penn State's miraculous run of four consecutive victories by 3 points or less comes to an end today. It's just too tall of a task for them to keep this up today playing their 4th game in 4 days and coming off an OT game against Northwestern yesterday to boot. They run out of gas and get blown out of the building by the Indiana Hoosiers today.
This is a step up in class for Penn State as the Hoosiers have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games overall including a pair of wins over Purdue. Indiana wants revenge from a 66-85 loss at Penn State prior to this 12-4 run. The Nittany Lions shot 18-of-31 (58.1%) from 3-point range in that game, and that's clearly not going to happen again, especially on their tired legs.
Penn State is 0-6 ATS after covering four or five of their last six games coming in. Indiana is 6-0 ATS in neutral court games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last three seasons. The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Hoosiers. Bet Indiana Saturday.
|03-11-23||Ohio State v. Purdue -7.5||66-80||Win||100||3 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Purdue -7.5
Ohio State's impressive Big Ten Tournament run comes to an end in blowout fashion today. The Buckeyes will be playing their 4th game in 4 days and they are expected to be without their best player in Brice Sensabaugh (16.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 48.1% FG's, 41.5% 3-pointers) today.
It's just too tall of a task for the Buckeyes to try and win 4 games in 4 days against a healthy, rested Purdue team that earned a double-bye and will be playing just their 2nd game in 2 days. The Boilermakers crushed the Buckeyes in their most recent meeting, an 82-55 home victory as 12-point favorites. They outrebounded Ohio State 44-21 in that game and it will be more of the same here. Bet Purdue Saturday.
|03-11-23||Missouri +10 v. Alabama||61-72||Loss||-110||3 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri +10
The Missouri Tigers are 24-8 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country. They come in playing their best basketball with five consecutive victories including an upset 79-71 win over Tennessee yesterday. Now I expect them to give Alabama a run for their money today.
Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall and getting too much respect for a blowout win over Mississippi State yesterday. That was a Mississippi State team coming off a hard-fought OT win over Florida the day prior while Alabama came in rested. The Crimson Tide took advantage of a tired Bulldogs team.
I also think this number is inflated due to Alabama's 85-64 win at Missouri as 5.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season. That was the worst performance of the season for the Tigers as they shot just 3-of-28 (10.7%) from 3-point range. That's not going to happen again as Missouri averaged 9 made 3-pointers per game at a 36.3% clip, one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country.
The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Bet Missouri Saturday.
|03-10-23||Clemson +3.5 v. Virginia||56-76||Loss||-110||13 h 7 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Virginia ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +3.5
The Clemson Tigers are still somehow on the bubble despite going 23-9 this season including 15-6 in the ACC. These players feel disrespected and are taking out their frustration here to close out the season.
The Tigers are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall beating Syracuse by 18 as 4.5-point favorites, NC State by 25 as 6-point road dogs, Notre Dame by 23 as 10-point favorites and NC State by 26 as 1-point favorites. They got to rest their starters late yesterday due to the blowout, while Virginia was in a 2-point game late against UNC but pulled away for a 68-59 victory.
Now they have their sights set on revenge from a 57-64 road loss at Virginia on February 28th in their lone defeat during this stretch. The Tigers get the Cavaliers on a neutral this time around in what will feel like a home game for them played in Greensboro, NC.
Clemson is 9-2 ATS when the line is +3.5 to -3.5 this season. The Tigers are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Bet Clemson Friday.
|03-10-23||Maryland v. Indiana||Top||60-70||Win||100||13 h 45 m||Show|
20* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana PK
The Indiana Hoosiers have the rest advantage today after receiving a double-bye into the quarterfinals. They are rested and ready to go against a Maryland team that just played yesterday in a 70-54 win over lowly Minnesota, which was tired from the day prior beating Nebraska and they took advantage.
This will now be a huge step up in class for the Terrapins. The Hoosiers want revenge from a 55-66 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season. But if you remember that was a terrible spot for Indiana. They had Purdue on deck and were looking ahead to that game, and they wound up beating the Boilermakers in that game. They also beat Purdue on the road on February 25th in the rematch to flash their potential.
This will feel like a home game for the Hoosiers with thousands of fans making the short trip to Chicago. The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet Indiana Friday.
|03-10-23||Connecticut -3.5 v. Marquette||Top||68-70||Loss||-110||10 h 55 m||Show|
20* UConn/Marquette Big East No-Brainer on UConn -3.5
The UConn Huskies have been one of the best teams in the country when playing at their best. They showed that with their 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS start to the season, and they have showed it down the stretch here going 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 at Creighton. All nine wins during this stretch came by 6 points or more.
Marquette is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall and has been overvalued due to winning the Big East regular season title. They just beat St. John's by 2 and 2 points in their last two games coming in and only beat DePaul by 6 at home four games back. They had to go to OT to beat St. John's yesterday, which will add to their fatigue playing for a 2nd consecutive day.
UConn did lost the first meeting 76-82 at Marquette back when they weren't playing their best on January 11th. But they got their revenge in blowout fashion over the Golden Eagles, winning 87-72 at home on February 7th. They had a 48-24 rebounding advantage in that game and have a big advantage on the boards in this matchup. It should be more of the same in the 3rd and final meeting here in the Big East semis.
UConn is 8-1 ATS following three or more consecutive ATS wins this season. Marquette is 0-6 ATS in its last six games on the highway following three consecutive games as favorites. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. UConn is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. The Golden Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet UConn Friday.
|03-10-23||Tennessee v. Missouri +6||Top||71-79||Win||100||7 h 56 m||Show|
25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Missouri +6
Missouri comes in rested and ready to go after receiving a double-bye into the quarterfinals. The are playing some of their best basketball of the season heading into the SEC Tournament by winning four consecutive games to earn this double-bye. And now they are catching 6 points in the opener against Tennessee when I think they should be favored.
That's especially the case considering Tennessee will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after beating Ole Miss yesterday. That was a rare win recently for the Volunteers, who are 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They just lost starting PG Zakai Zeigler (10.7 PPG, 5.4 APG) to a season-ending injury to boot and are vulnerable here in the postseason.
Missouri won 86-85 as 12-point road underdogs in their lone meeting this season with the Volunteers. That spread was way off, and this spread is, too. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Missouri is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover four or five of its last six games coming in. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers. Bet Missouri Friday.
|03-10-23||UAB v. North Texas -1||76-69||Loss||-110||6 h 25 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Afternoon BLOWOUT on North Texas -1
North Texas is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall and coming off a 74-46 blowout victory over Louisiana Tech yesterday. That blowout win means they will be fresh and ready to go taking on UAB today.
UAB will also be fresh, but I can't help but look at both regular season meetings between these two teams and feel like North Texas is simply the better team. The Mean Green went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Blazers winning 82-79 at home and 63-52 on the road. Contrary to popular belief, it's not hard to beat a team three times in the same season.
UAB is 0-7 ATS following two consecutive games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds. North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games away from home vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. The Blazers are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win. UAB is 1-7 ATS vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. I'll gladly back the better defensive team in North Texas that takes care of the ball here. Bet North Texas Friday.
|03-09-23||Villanova +5.5 v. Creighton||74-87||Loss||-115||13 h 49 m||Show|
15* Villanova/Creighton Big East ANNIHILATOR on Villanova +5.5
The Villanova Wildcats are still trying to earn a bid into the NCAA Tournament. A win over Creighton would go a long way. They want this game more and it will show, and thus getting 5 points with the Wildcats with everything factored in is a nice value.
I realize Villanova will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day while Creighton is off a bye, but it's a non-factor here. Villanova crushed Georgetown 80-48 yesterday and was able to rest starters in the 2nd half as a result. The Wildcats will come back fresh with a big effort tonight.
Villanova has been the better team in their two meetings with Creighton this season and clearly match up well with them. They lost 61-66 as 10-point road dogs at Creighton in a game they had a chance to win in the closing seconds. They came back and made easy work of Creighton 79-67 as 2-point home underdogs in the rematch. I expect them to win outright again today, but I'll certainly take the value and the 5.5 points here.
Creighton is 2-10 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and have been competitive in 26 consecutive games with only one loss by more than 10 points which was a 12-point defeat to UConn. The underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet Villanova Thursday.
|03-09-23||NC State v. Clemson +2||54-80||Win||100||13 h 46 m||Show|
15* NC State/Clemson ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +2
Wrong team favored here. Clemson had a bye into this round and is rested and ready to go. NC State played a shootout yesterday beating Virginia Tech 97-77. They Wolfpack are now getting too much respect for that victory coming back as favorites today.
This despite the fact that Clemson has owned them this season. Clemson won 78-64 as 2.5-point home favorites over the Wolfpack and backed it up with a 96-71 road win at NC State as 6-point dogs in the rematch. The Tigers clearly match up well with the Wolfpack. Clemson also needs this game more to make the NCAA Tournament so won't be taking them lightly.
NC State is 1-8 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season. Clemson is 8-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Tigers are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game. The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous. The Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games. I'll gladly back the much better defensive team here in Clemson against the flashy offensive team in NC State. Bet Clemson Thursday.
|03-09-23||TCU v. Kansas State +2.5||80-67||Loss||-110||13 h 38 m||Show|
15* TCU/Kansas State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State +2.5
Kansas State will have the home-court advantage today with this game being played in Kansas City. They should not be underdogs to TCU considering that fact, plus they are fully healthy while TCU is going to be without key big man Eddie Lampkin Jr.
Kansas State crushed TCU 82-61 at home this season and it should be more of the same in the rematch here. The Wildcats have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball this season going 23-8 SU & 20-11 ATS. They are 16-1 SU at home this season, and while this isn't a true home game it will feel like one for them.
The Horned Frogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Kansas State is 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) this season. Bet Kansas State Thursday.
|03-09-23||UNLV v. Boise State -4||Top||76-87||Win||100||21 h 48 m||Show|
20* UNLV/Boise State MWC No-Brainer on Boise State -4
UNLV needed OT to beat Air Force 78-70 yesterday in a game that was tied 57-57 at the end of regulation. It was a brutal beat for me on Air Force +7, and I'll gladly fade the Rebels in this spot considering they lack depth without second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert (11.5 PPG).
Meanwhile, Boise State comes in rested after receiving a bye. The Broncos might still have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament so they won't be taking UNLV lightly. They have won both meetings with the Rebels this season, including a blowout 84-66 road win at UNLV. The Broncos are now 7-0 SU In their last eight meetings with the Rebels winning six of them by 4 points or more. Bet Boise State Thursday.
|03-09-23||Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -8||Top||46-74||Win||100||12 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas -8
Louisiana Tech (15-17) just lost its bet player in G Cobe Williams (18.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) as he is no longer with the team. The Bulldogs couldn't afford to lose him. The Bulldogs are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games without him.
Louisiana Tech needed OT to beat Florida International 81-76 yesterday. Willis played all 45 minutes and Crawford played 44 minutes for the Bulldogs, who are short on depth especially without Williams. They won't have much left in the tank for North Texas today.
North Texas (25-6) is one of the best mid-majors in the country. The Mean Green are rested and ready to go after getting a bye into this round. They just won 72-62 at LA Tech on February 18th in their most recent meeting, and I like their chances of winning by double-digits in the rematch here given the rest advantage and the home-court advantage as the C-USA Tournament is being played in Frisco, TX.
The Mean Green are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with seven wins by double-digits. Bet North Texas Thursday.
|03-09-23||Colorado v. UCLA -8.5||69-80||Win||100||15 h 52 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA -8.5
Colorado was in a dog fight with Washington yesterday but pulled out the 74-68 victory. Now the Buffaloes will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and are short on depth right now. They just lost leading scorer KJ Simpson (15.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.8 APG) to Mono right before the Pac-12 Tournament. They were already without third-leading scorer J'vonne Hadley (8.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and couldn't afford to lose Simpson.
Now they have to take on a rested UCLA team coming off a bye that is the best team in the Pac-12. This has double-digit blowout written all over it. UCLA has won four consecutive meetings with Colorado in this series, including both meetings this season.
Colorado is 54-90 ATS in its last 144 games played away from home following two consecutive wins. The Bruins have won 10 consecutive games with six wins by 9 points or more. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Bet UCLA Thursday.
|03-09-23||Ohio State v. Iowa -1.5||Top||73-69||Loss||-110||15 h 35 m||Show|
20* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -1.5
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Iowa Hawkeyes after an upset loss to Nebraska in their regular season finale. They had won 90-68 at Indiana in the game prior, so it was more of an aberration than anything. Iowa won the Big Ten Tournament last year and will be locked in and focused to repeat.
The Hawkeyes have the rest advantage here after getting a bye into this round, while Ohio State won a hard-fought 65-57 game against Wisconsin yesterday. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Buckeyes, who are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their brief run comes to an end today.
Iowa beat Ohio State 92-75 at home on February 16th. Ohio State is 3-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The Buckeyes are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. Bet Iowa Thursday.
|03-09-23||St. John's +8 v. Marquette||70-72||Win||100||3 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. John's +8
Oddsmakers and the betting public are making the mistake of not realizing that this is a home game for St. John's at Madison Square Garden. Thus, they should not be catching 8-plus points against the Marquette Golden Eagles.
I realize the Red Storm will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day while the Golden Eagles are off a bye, but the Red Storm made easy work of Butler 76-63 yesterday which softens the blow. Marquette is a terrible rebounding team while St. John's is a great one, which will keep them in this game.
St. John's just lost 96-94 at Marquette as 11.5-point dogs in the regular season finale to prove they could play with the Golden Eagles on the road. So they are revenge-minded here, and oddsmakers aren't adjusting enough towards them considering they are flipping home courts here.
The Red Storm are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The Golden Eagles are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall and have been overvalued for weeks after winning the Big East regular season title. Bet St. John's Thursday.
|03-09-23||Wake Forest v. Miami-FL -5||Top||72-74||Loss||-110||12 h 4 m||Show|
20* Wake Forest/Miami ACC No-Brainer on Miami -5
Wake Forest won at the buzzer yesterday over Syracuse. That game took a lot out of the Demon Deacons as it was played at a fast pace. They are without second-leading scorer Monsanto (13.3 PPG) and lack depth.
Miami is rested and ready to go after getting a bye into this round. The Hurricanes are fully healthy and not only a legit ACC title contender, but also a NCAA Tournament contender after making a deep run last year and bringing back mostly the same team.
Miami beat Wake Forest 96-87 at home in their lone meeting this season on February 18th. Monsanto scored 14 points in that game for Wake Forest and they won't have his production this time around.
Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win where they failed to cover the spread this season. The Hurricanes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by 3 points or less. The Demon Deacons are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Bet Miami Thursday.
|03-08-23||Louisiana Tech v. Florida International +2.5||Top||81-76||Loss||-107||14 h 45 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Florida International +2.5
Louisiana Tech (14-17) just lost its bet player in G Cobe Williams (18.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) as he is no longer with the team. The Bulldogs couldn't afford to lose him. He has been off the team for their last six games, a 62-72 home loss to North Texas as 4-point dogs, a 67-74 home loss to Charlotte as 1-point dogs, 66-76 road loss at Western Kentucky as 4.5-point dogs, a 49-63 road loss at Middle Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs, a 1-point home win over FIU as 5-point favorites and a 4-point home loss to FAU as 9-point dogs.
So the Bulldogs are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their six games without Williams. That includes their 77-76 (OT) home win over Florida International on March 2nd less than a week ago. Now the Panthers will be out for revenge and I like their chances of pulling off the upset on a neutral this time around.
Florida International is just 1-5 SU in its last six games overall but four of those losses came by 7 points or fewer and the other was an 11-point loss at Middle Tennessee, which is a very tough place to play. They closed the season with a 90-83 upset win at Rice as 5.5-point dogs to gain some confidence and momentum heading into this C-USA Tournament.
The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Panthers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet Florida International Wednesday.
|03-08-23||Georgetown +12 v. Villanova||48-80||Loss||-110||13 h 45 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown +12
Georgetown made a shocking run to win the Big East Tournament a few years back under Patrick Ewing. This team has a lot of similarities to that one, playing competitive basketball but having a poor record to show for it.
Well, Georgetown is actually 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games overall but just 2-11 SU during this stretch. The Hoyas have been competitive, including a 73-77 loss at Villanova as 13.5-point dogs in their most recent meeting. I think they can hang with the Wildcats on a neutral this time around as well.
Villanova has all the pressure on them trying to make the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats could have likely clinched a spot in the regular season finale but lost 59-71 at home to UConn. They know they won't get any credit for a win over Georgetown and style points won't matter, so their mindset is just to win and advance.
They will be conservative, which is their nature ranking 340th in the country in adjusted tempo. They remind me a lot of Virginia, which struggles to cover big spreads because they play so slow. Villanova is 7-14 ATS as a favorite this season. Georgetown will be free willing it here with nothing to lose, and I like that mindset better.
Georgetown is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games when revenging a same-season loss. Villanova is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Georgetown Wednesday.
|03-08-23||Ohio State v. Wisconsin +2||65-57||Loss||-110||11 h 14 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin +2
Wisconsin is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and won't take Ohio State lightly in the Big Ten Tournament as a result. That's key because the Buckeyes are struggling to close the season going just 3-15 SU & 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
I backed Wisconsin in a 65-60 upset win at Ohio State as 7.5-point underdogs in their lone meeting this season on February 2nd. I stated that Ohio State shouldn't even be favored with how they are playing right now. And I feel that is the case again here as they are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers as neutral court favorites to Wisconsin.
The Badgers are playing much better than Ohio State right now. They are 3-3 SU & 3-2-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their three losses coming by 1 to Rutgers, by 2 to Purdue and in OT to Michigan. That's how close they are to being 6-0 against a brutal schedule.
Wisconsin is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Bet Wisconsin Wednesday.
|03-08-23||Air Force +7 v. UNLV||70-78||Loss||-110||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +7
Air Force just lost 53-54 at UNLV on February 24th in their second-to-last game of the season. They led that game basically the entire way until a costly turnover leading by 1 in the final seconds that led to a layup by UNLV. No question they want revenge, and there's no sweeter revenge then ending UNLV's season.
At the very least, I think this game goes down to the wire, so getting 7 points with the Falcons is a nice value. UNLV is struggling down the stretch going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall with both victories coming by a combined 3 points, and the four losses coming by a combined 49 points.
While Air Force is fully healthy, UNLV is without Keshon Gilbert (11.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, 46.1% shooting, 38% 3-pointers). The Rebels lost him in their season finale against Nevada and he has been suspended for this game and won't return until next game if UNLV advances. That's a huge blow for the Rebels as he is their second-leading scorer and it puts a ton of pressure on Harkless to do more.
The Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Rebels are 4-11 ATS at home this season, including 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Bet Air Force Wednesday.
|03-08-23||Colorado v. Washington +4||Top||74-68||Loss||-116||8 h 2 m||Show|
20* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington +4
The Washington Huskies have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 conference games. They have beaten Colorado twice already this season, winning 73-63 as 1-point home dogs and 75-72 as 9-point road dogs. Now they are catching 4 points in the 3rd and final meeting, and it will be more of the same here with another upset victory in favor of the Huskies.
The key here is that Colorado just lost leading scorer KJ Simpson (15.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.8 APG) to Mono right before the Pac-12 Tournament. They were already without third-leading scorer J'vonne Hadley (8.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and couldn't afford to lose Simpson. Those two combined for 28 points in their first meeting with Washington this season, and 18 points in the second meeting. Not having to deal with those two guys will make the task even easier on the Huskies tonight.
Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. Washington is 27-7 ATS in its last 34 games following a loss. Colorado is 1-7 ATS in its last seven road games following an ATS win. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS following two consecutive conference losses this season. The Huskies are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games after failing to cover the spread last game. Bet Washington Wednesday.
|03-08-23||Wake Forest v. Syracuse +3||Top||77-74||Push||0||5 h 40 m||Show|
20* Wake Forest/Syracuse ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +3
Syracuse just beat Wake Forest 72-63 at home to close out the season. The Orange were a PK in that game at home, and now are +3 on a neutral. They should have been favored in that game, and they should be favored in this game as well. We'll gladly take the value and the +3 with the Orange in the rematch.
Wake Forest has been a dead team for weeks. The Demon Deacons are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two victories both coming at home over Georgia Tech by 1 as 13-point favorites and Notre Dame by 8 as 8-point favorites. They lost by 9 at Miami, by 14 at NC State, were upset at home as 8-point favorites by Boston College, and lost by 9 at Syracuse.
Wake Forest's season really went in the dumpster when they lost G Damari Monsanto (13.3 PPG, 40.5% 3-pointers) in that loss to NC State. They have been without him for each of their last three games and just aren't very good without his shooting prowess. They are a terrible defensive team allowing 70 or more points in 23 of their last 27 games overall, which is why they can't be trusted laying points.
Syracuse is 19-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The Orange are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as neutral court underdogs or PK. Jim Boeheim thrives in these neutral court tournaments and will have his team ready to go to make one final run at the Big Dance. Bet Syracuse Wednesday.
|03-07-23||Georgia Tech v. Florida State||Top||61-60||Win||100||19 h 4 m||Show|
20* Georgia Tech/Florida State ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech PK
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have gone 6-2 SU in their final eight games of the season and are playing their best basketball heading into the ACC Tournament. They have gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall as they have consistently been undervalued with four outright upsets during this stretch.
They are once again being undervalued as a PK against lowly Florida State, which is 9-22 SU & 12-19 ATS this season while consistently being overvalued. The Seminoles did not finish well going 2-9 SU in their final 11 games with one of those wins coming by 3 against Louisville and the other a miracle 1-point win over Miami after being down 25.
The Seminoles are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. They lost by 22 at Va Tech, by 11 at home to UNC, by 6 at home to BC, by 40 at Clemson, by 8 at home to Pitt, by 9 at home to Syracuse and by 28 at NC State. They have rarely even been competitive here down the stretch and are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the ACC Tournament opener. Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.
|03-06-23||Cleveland State v. Wisc-Milwaukee +2.5||Top||93-80||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +2.5
Wrong team favored here. Wisconsin-Milwaukee won both regular season meetings with Cleveland State 68-64 as 5.5-point road dogs and 81-72 as 1.5-point home dogs. And here they are in the underdog role against the Vikings again in the conference tournament when they are clearly the better team.
Milwaukee upset Wright State 87-70 as 1.5-point dogs in their Horizon League Tournament opener in one of the most impressive performances of the season in this conference. Cleveland State struggled to beat Robert Morris 75-70 as 6.5-point home favorites in their tournament opener.
Cleveland State is 0-9 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season. Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Monday.
|03-05-23||South Alabama v. James Madison||Top||75-66||Loss||-115||7 h 4 m||Show|
20* South Alabama/James Madison Sun Belt No-Brainer on James Madison PK
James Madison lost 62-63 as 3-point road favorites at South Alabama in their lone meeting this season. Now the Dukes want revenge, and we are getting them at a better price here at PK in the rematch despite this being on a neutral and not a true road game.
The value is there, plus the Dukes have the rest advantage. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days here while South Alabama will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days after beating App State and Southern Miss in their first two games of this Sun Belt Tournament.
I don't think the Jaguars will have much left in the tank for the Dukes, who will test their tired legs ranking 31st in adjusted tempo and 9th in average possession length on offense in the entire country. The Dukes average 81.0 points per game this season. They are also 69th in adjusted defense.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (James Madison) - in conference tournament games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Dukes are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet James Madison Sunday.
|03-05-23||East Carolina +11.5 v. UCF||58-84||Loss||-110||4 h 33 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +11.5
East Carolina has quietly gone 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with an upset home win over Tulane, an upset home win over Cincinnati and only a 3-point road loss at Tulane as 12-point dogs. The Pirates are once again catching too many points here as 11.5-point road dogs to UCF.
This is a UCF team that is not playing well at all down the stretch and just going through the motions. The Knights are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games overall with two of those wins coming against Tulsa, the worst team in the American Athletic. They cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number with the way they have been playing.
ECU wants revenge from a 61-64 home loss to UCF as 5.5-point dogs. Each of the last six meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, making for a 6-0 system backing the Pirates pertaining to this 11.5-point spread. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season. The Knights are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Bet East Carolina Sunday.
|03-05-23||South Florida +8 v. Wichita State||49-69||Loss||-110||4 h 33 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on South Florida +8
These are two very evenly-matched teams here in South Florida and Wichita State and this line should be much closer to PK than 8. South Florida is 4-1 SU in its last five games overall which includes an upset win at UCF as 10-point dogs.
Wichita State is coming off a 66-83 loss at Houston on Thursday and now only has two days to get ready for South Florida. I like fading teams after playing the No. 1 team in the country because they just aren't as motivated in their next game out. I think the Shockers suffer a hangover here from that Houston defeat.
USF wants revenge from a 66-70 home loss as 2-point favorites to Wichita state in their first meeting this season. So the books have adjusted this number 10 points for home-court advantage now making the Shockers an 8-point favorite in the rematch. That's way too big of an adjustment as Wichita State has actually been better on the road than at home this season, while USF has been at is best on the road.
Indeed, the Bulls are 11-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season. Wichita State is 4-12 ATS at home this season. The Bulls are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 road games dating back further. The Shockers are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 home games dating back further. The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet South Florida Sunday.
|03-05-23||Houston v. Memphis +5||Top||67-65||Win||100||2 h 60 m||Show|
20* Houston/Memphis CBS No-Brainer on Memphis +5
The Memphis Tigers are 11-2 in their last 13 games overall with their two losses coming by 1 to Tulane and by 8 on the road at Houston. Now they get their shot at revenge on the Cougars, who don't have much to play for here in what feels like a letdown spot for them.
Nobody has played Houston as tough as Memphis in recent meetings. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cougars with three outright upsets and five losses by 8 points or fewer. Memphis is 13-1 SU at home this season with its lone loss coming by a single point.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings with the lone exception being an upset road win by Memphis. The home team has only lost by more than 3 points once in the last 11 meetings, making for a 10-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 5-point spread. Bet Memphis Sunday.
|03-04-23||Connecticut v. Villanova +3||Top||71-59||Loss||-110||24 h 23 m||Show|
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova +3
Villanova has been competitive in each of its last 10 games since Justin Moore returned to the lineup. Moore is getting better with each passing game and just had 25 points in an upset road win over Xavier three games back. It was a team effort in an 79-67 upset win over Creighton last Saturday that moved the Wildcats closer to making the NCAA Tournament.
The Wildcats came up clutch again on Tuesday winning 76-72 at Seton Hall. Moore iced that game by making every free throw down the stretch and finished with 23 points. This team is gaining confidence with each passing game and now has an opportunity to put a stamp on its season on Senior Night with an upset win over Connecticut that would likely get them in the NCAA Tournament.
UConn comes in overvalued off a blowout home win over a dead DePaul team that has lost 11 consecutive games now. That win clinched a Top 5 seed in the Big East Tournament for the Huskies, and each of the Top 5 seeds get a bye. So I think there will be a bit of a letdown factor here for the Huskies with not much to play for, while the Wildcats have everything to play for.
Villanova is 10-2 at home this season with four consecutive home victories coming in. UConn is just an average road team, going 5-5 SU in true road games. The Wildcats are 1st in the country in defending catch and shoot 3's which UConn is a Top 25 team in. UConn is a dominant offensive rebounding team, but Villanova also ranks very highly in defending offensive rebounds. The matchup is a good one for the more motivated home underdog here tonight. Bet Villanova Saturday.
|03-04-23||Florida Atlantic -9.5 v. Louisiana Tech||76-72||Loss||-111||24 h 56 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Florida Atlantic -9.5
Louisiana Tech (14-16) just lost its bet player in G Cobe Williams (18.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) as he is no longer with the team. The Bulldogs couldn't afford to lose him. He has been off the team for their last five games, a 62-72 home loss to North Texas as 4-point dogs, a 67-74 home loss to Charlotte as 1-point dogs, 66-76 road loss at Western Kentucky as 4.5-point dogs, a 49-63 road loss at Middle Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs and a 1-point home win over FIU as 5-point favorites.
So the Bulldogs are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their five games without Williams. Now they have to face the best team in C-USA in Florida Atlantic (27-3). Making matters worse is that they are a tired team playing their 2nd game in 3 days after needing OT to beat FIU on Thursday, so they won't have much left in the tank for the Owls.
FAU is trying to make a statement here at the end of the season to try and earn an at-large berth in case they were to lose in the conference tournament. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall winning by 40 over UTSA as 17.5-point favorites, by 26 over UTEP as 12-point favorites and by 29 over Rice as 8.5-point favorites. They should still be very fresh following three consecutive blowouts.
FAU is 9-0 ATS following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more this season. The Owls will win this game by double-digits again today. Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.
|03-04-23||Duke v. North Carolina -2.5||Top||62-57||Loss||-110||23 h 29 m||Show|
20* Duke/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels caught fire as an 8-seed and made it to the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year. They have pretty much the same team back and after going through the motions most of the season, they are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch. They are squarely on the bubble so will be max motivated.
The Tar Heels have won three consecutive games beating Notre Dame on the road, Virginia at home and FSU on the road. Now they have their sights set on revenge from a 57-63 road loss at Duke in their first meeting this season. They shot just 36.4% as a team in that game and just couldn't get a 3 to fall late. But they are heating up from 3 and will be coming into this game with a ton of shooting confidence.
Duke is 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in true road games this season. The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs or PK. UNC is 12-2 SU at home this season. Duke is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Blue Devils are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Bet North Carolina Saturday.
|03-04-23||Kansas v. Texas -2||59-75||Win||100||21 h 50 m||Show|
15* Kansas/Texas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Texas -2
The Kansas Jayhawks escaped with home victories over West Virginia 76-74 as 9.5-point favorites and Texas Tech 67-63 as 8-point favorites in their last two games to clinch the Big 12 regular season title. Now the Jayhawks are primed for a letdown here as this game really means nothing to them as they are basically locked into a No. 1 seed after winning the toughest conference in the country.
I question their motivation tonight, but I have no doubt Texas will be max motivated for revenge from an 80-88 road loss at Kansas. They want to prove they can beat the top dog in the Big 12, and I think they are favored for good reason tonight. The Longhorns have one of the best home-court advantages in the country at 16-1 SU at home this season.
The Longhorns are coming off two consecutive road losses to Baylor and TCU to add to their motivation. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. Kansas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 6 points or less. The Jayhawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following five or more consecutive wins. Bet Texas Saturday.
|03-04-23||Louisville +20 v. Virginia||60-75||Win||100||19 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisville +20
Virginia struggles to get margin due to ranking 360th in adjusted tempo. There just aren't enough possessions in Virginia games for them to get margin. That's why they are such a terrible bet as a big favorite and have been for years, especially this season.
Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall which includes a 48-63 upset loss at Boston College as a 9-point favorite and a 63-71 loss at UNC. The Cavaliers only beat Notre Dame by 2 as 12.5-point home favorites and Louisville by 3 as 16-point road favorites.
So Louisville already showed they could hang with Virginia two weeks ago losing 58-61 at home. I am confident they can stay within 20 on the road in the rematch today. Each of the last 14 meetings in this series were decided by 17 points or less, making for a 14-0 system backing the Cardinals pertaining to this 20-point spread.
Virginia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a double-digit favorite. Louisville is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games as a road underdog of 10 points or more. The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Louisville Saturday.
|03-04-23||Tennessee v. Auburn +2.5||Top||70-79||Win||100||19 h 12 m||Show|
20* Tennessee/Auburn ESPN No-Brainer on Auburn +2.5
After losing six of their last eight games overall, the Auburn Tigers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Five of those six losses came on the road. They need this signature win over Tennessee like blood and I trust them to get it at home today.
Now the Tigers are back home where they are 13-2 SU this season with their only losses coming to Alabama and Texas A&M. They will be out for revenge from a 43-46 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season. The Volunteers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games losing by 13 at Florida, by 1 at Vanderbilt, by 12 at Kentucky and by 5 at Texas A&M despite being favored in three of those four games.
The Volunteers were already banged up, but now they just lost starting PG Zakai Zeigler (10.7 PPG, 5.4 APG) to a season-ending torn ACL last time out. That's terrible news for a Tennessee team that was already struggling on offense all season, especially down the stretch. Not having their floor general out there is going to make them even more stagnant on offense.
Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. Auburn is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when revenging a loss. The Tigers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss. Bet Auburn Saturday.
|03-03-23||Akron v. Kent State -4||Top||84-89||Win||100||7 h 10 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Kent State -4
I love the spot for the Kent State Golden Flashes tonight. They want revenge from a 55-67 road loss at Akron in their first meeting this season. They were 1.5-point road favorites in that meeting, and now are only 4-point home favorites in the rematch.
That 2.5-point adjustment for switching home courts isn't enough, especially when you consider Kent State is 14-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game. Now they go for a perfect home record on Senior Night and will be max motivated.
Kent State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games following two consecutive conference wins. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as home favorites of 6 points or less or PK. Akron is 1-7 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. The Zips are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .400. The Golden Flashes are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. Bet Kent State Friday.
|03-02-23||UCF v. Temple||55-57||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Temple PK
I love the spot for Temple tonight. We'll 'buy low' on the Owls after losing five of their last six games against a brutal schedule. They have been off since February 22nd so they are rested and ready to go and primed for a big effort on Senior Night, their final home game.
UCF is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers for a team that is just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games overall with two of those wins coming against AAC bottom feeder Tulsa. The Knights already lost 70-77 at home to Temple in their first meeting this season as well.
UCF is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following three consecutive games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers. Temple is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK. The Owls are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss. Bet Temple Thursday.
|03-02-23||Wichita State +18 v. Houston||Top||66-83||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wichita State +18
Only Memphis and Wichita State have played Houston tough in the AAC in recent seasons. When you look at recent history in this series, the Shockers should not be catching this many points against the Cougars tonight.
Wichita State is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Houston. The Shockers haven't lost any of their last five meetings with the Cougars by more than 10 points. They lost by 9 as 13-point home dogs, by 2 as 6.5-point home dogs, by 10 as 11-point road dogs, by 7 as 11-point road dogs upset them by 5 as 7-point home dogs.
The Shockers have done their best work on the road this season going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road games with upset wins at SMU, at Temple by 14 and at Tulane by 7. The Shockers are 9-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season. Wichita State is 35-14-2 ATS in its last 51 road games overall. Bet Wichita State Thursday.
|03-01-23||Texas v. TCU -2||Top||73-75||Push||0||9 h 20 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU -2
TCU has been one of the best teams in the country when Mike Miles Jr. has been healthy. He returned three games ago and they promptly crushed Oklahoma State 100-75 to end a four-game losing streak. They went on to lose at home to Kansas by 5 due to shooting just 30.3% and missing a ton of layups. But they rebounded with an 83-82 road win at Texas Tech.
Now the Horned Frogs have their sights set on revenge from 75-79 road loss at Texas where they blew a 13-point halftime lead in their first meeting this season. I like their chances of getting revenge at home this time around as a short favorite.
Texas is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road this season. That includes 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games losing by 11 at Iowa State, by 11 at Tennessee, by 8 at Kansas, by 7 at Texas Tech and by 9 at Baylor. Keep in mind the Bears lost their best player in Keyonte George in the opening minutes of that game over the weekend and they still beat the Longhorns by 9.
TCU is 7-0 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Longhorns are 2-9 ATS as road underdogs or PK over the last two years. The Horned Frogs are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Bet TCU Wednesday.