20* Xavier/St. John’s Big East No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5 

The Xavier Musketeers have played themselves back into the NCAA Tournament conversation.  They cannot afford a loss to St. John’s now, and I look for them to handle their business on the road here Monday night. 

Xavier has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  They upset Seton Hall by 12 a 9-point dogs, upset DePaul and topped Providence at home.  They only lost by 5 at Butler as 5.5-point dogs. 

St. John’s is 3-9 in Big East play this season with two of its wins against DePaul and the other against Providence.  The Red Storm just lost second-leading scorer Mustafa Heron (13.8 PPG) to an ankle injury and couldn’t afford to lose him. 

Xavier owns St. John’s, going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings.  They basically just have to win to cover tonight.  The Musketeers are 6-0 ATS after covering four of their last five ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Xavier Monday. 

15* Memphis/UConn ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4 

The UConn Huskies are playing well right now going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only losses came on the road at Memphis by 7 and on the road at SMU by 4.  They beat Temple by 15 at home, upset Cincinnati at home and upset Tulsa by 16 on the road. 

Now the Huskies want revenge from their 63-70 road loss at Memphis on February 1st.  They get an extra day to rest and prepare having three days off in between games.  Memphis only has two days off since its deflating OT loss at Cincinnati on Thursday.  That followed up an upset home loss to South Florida as 9-point favorites. 

UConn is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season.  Memphis is 2-3 SU in AAC road games this season while getting outscored by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Their two wins came by a combined 6 points over UCF and USF. 

Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  UConn is 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Huskies are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.  UConn is 16-7-2 ATS in its last 25 home games overall.  Roll with UConn Sunday. 

15* Villanova/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Temple +6.5 

The Temple Owls have turned the corner here in their last four games and are playing well enough to hang with a team like Villanova.  This is a huge rivalry game and the Owls will want this one more today in the home underdog role. 

Temple is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The only loss came at Memphis. They beat ECU by 12 at home and upset SMU by 7 at home.  They also went on the road and covered in a win at Tulane. 

Villanova is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Creighton and Seton Hall and also nearly lost to Marquette in a 1-point win as 6-point favorites.  They lost on the road at Butler as well.  It’s a solid Villanova team, but definitely one of the worst Villanova teams in the last decade. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS in February home games over the last three seasons.  Villanova is 2-9 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Villanova is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers once again today.  Take Temple Sunday. 

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are highly motivated for a win Sunday.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with tough road losses at Illinois and Penn State and a home loss to Michigan State.  They did beat Wisconsin by 18 in between at home. 

Minnesota is also out for revenge from a 52-72 road loss at Iowa in their first meeting this season.  Now the Gophers get the Hawkeyes at home this time around, where they are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  And the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has been huge. 

Iowa is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in Big Ten road games this season, losing those six games by an average of 13.2 points per game.  They just lost by 12 at Indiana on Thursday, who had lost four straight prior to that game.  Adding injury to insult is that they lost their best shooter in C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.7% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury in that defeat. 

Minnesota has a huge rest advantage in this game was well.  They have had seven days off in between games having last played on February 8th.  Iowa only has two days off to get ready for Minnesota after playing Indiana on February 13th. 

Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Iowa is 7-22 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 14-3 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Minnesota Sunday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -1.5 

Seton Hall should come back motivated for a win after an upset home loss to Creighton on Wednesday.  The good news for the Pirates is that they’ve actually played better on the road than at home, and we are getting them at a tremendous value today. 

Indeed, Seton Hall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in Big East road games this season.  That includes upset wins over Xavier, Butler and Villanova.  And they already beat Providence at home this season while shooting 57.8% and holding the Friars to just 35.9% shooting. 

Providence is 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall.  They have lost at home to both Villanova and Butler this season and don’t stand much of a chance of beating a team that caliber of Seton Hall, which is the best team in the Big East. 

The Pirates are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog.  Providence is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday. 

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina -3.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They have won seven of their last nine games overall and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  We are getting them at a tremendous value as only 3.5-point home favorites over Tennessee today. 

The most remarkable part of this 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run is that the Gamecocks have played six of those 10 games on the road.  All three of their losses came on the highway.  South Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home games upsetting Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog, and crushing Vanderbilt by 26, Missouri by 22 and Texas A&M by 20. 

Now the Gamecocks want revenge from a tough 55-56 road loss at Tennessee on January 11th in their first meeting.  The Vols have a plethora of injuries right now and just aren’t playing well, going 2-4 SU in their last six games overall.  They are without Turnver (12.3 PPG) and could be without both Pons (11.2 PPG) and James (7.8 PPG), who are questionable. 

Tennessee is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Vols are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  The Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Saturday games.  South Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet South Carolina Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +2 

The SMU Mustangs want revenge from a 62-71 road loss at Houston on January 15th.  I fully expect them to get their revenge at home this time around considering they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

SMU is an impressive 13-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game.  It will be a raucous atmosphere tonight with ranked rival Houston coming to town.  And the Mustangs still have a chance to win the AAC but must knock off the Cougars here. 

Houston came away with a fortunate 62-58 win at South Florida as 5.5-point favorites on Wednesday.  The Cougars trailed most the way until the final minutes.  Their luck runs out tonight at SMU. 

Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Mustangs are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  SMU is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 Saturday games.  Take SMU Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor -5.5 

The Baylor Bears have won 21 straight games with little to no signs of slowing down.  They are 11-0 at home this season and winning by 15.7 points per game.  They should handle West Virginia tonight. 

The Mountaineers are 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming at Oklahoma State, which may be the worst team in the conference.  They lost by 8 at Texas Tech, by 16 at Kansas State and by 10 at Oklahoma in their last three road games coming in.  I don’t see how they’re supposed to cover here against Baylor with their track record on the road this season. 

West Virginia is 1-11 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Baylor Saturday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Richmond -1.5 

Richmond wants revenge from a 68-87 road loss at VCU on January 28th.  These teams have gone in opposite directions since that game and I trust the Spiders to get the job done at home tonight in the rematch. 

Richmond is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games.  That includes a 22-point home win over George Washington and a 27-point road win at La Salle.  The Spiders are 10-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Dayton and Saint Louis. 

VCU is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three games since Richmond.  They lost by 12 at Rhode Island and were upset by George Mason at home as 14.5-point favorites.  Marcus Evans (10.3 PPG) suffered a knee injury in that loss to George Mason and is very questionable to play today. 

The Rams are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog, including 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.  The Spiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Richmond Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +6 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who have lost nine straight coming in and are highly motivated for a victory.  But the Huskers are playing much better than their record would indicate as they are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska upset Iowa 76-70 as 8-point home dogs and Purdue 70-56 as 13-point home dogs.  They only lost by 3 at Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs and just took Maryland to the wire in a 70-72 road loss as 17.5-point dogs.  Now they want revenge from a 68-82 road loss at Wisconsin on January 21st.  The Huskers only trailed 38-39 at halftime before falling apart in the second half. 

Wisconsin is 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS in all road games this season.  The Badgers are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Big Ten road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue, by 6 at Iowa and by 18 at Minnesota. 

The Huskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 0-6 ATS off a conference win this season.  Wisconsin is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Badgers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Nebraska Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +1.5 

Southern Illinois had won seven straight before suffering one of its worst losses of the season at Valparaiso on Wednesday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against defending MVC champ Bradley, and that loss should have them refocused. 

Now Southern Illinois wants revenge from a 48-67 road loss at Bradley in their first meeting this season.  Well, SIU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the MVC.  The Salukis are 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season with wins over the likes of Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago, which are arguably the two best teams in the MVC. 

While Southern Illinois is 6-0 SU at home in Missouri Valley play, Bradley is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  That includes very bad losses to St. Joe’s and Miami Ohio out of conference.  And one of their wins was against Evansville, the worst team in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 15-5 SU In its last 20 home meetings with Bradley.  The Salukis are 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Braves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite.  The Salukis are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

20* Davidson/St. Bonaventure ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -4 

St. Bonaventure has rebounded from a tough 1-4 start this season.  Interestingly, their lone win was against an NCAA Tournament team in Rutgers.  They have gone 16-4 since and have been flying under the radar in the Atlantic 10 this season. 

St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall coming in.  The Bonnies have only played 10 home games compared to 15 road games this season.  They are 7-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games and should be able to handle Davidson tonight. 

Davidson has been overvalued all season.  The Wildcats have been terrible on the road, going 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their 14 games played away from home.  That includes 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS records in their last seven true road games with their only win coming at Fordham, which is 1-10 in Atlantic 10 play and one of the worst teams in the conference. 

St. Bonaventure is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Davidson is 1-7 ATS in road games vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bonnies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Bonnies are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday. 

15* Colorado/Oregon ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -4.5 

This feels like a great spot for Oregon off back-to-back road losses to Stanford and Oregon State.  The Ducks are rested playing just their 2nd game in 12 days and are highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Adding to their motivation is that they are out for revenge from a 65-74 loss at Colorado on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  I think we get one of the best efforts of the season from the Ducks, who are 12-1 at home this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Colorado after winning three straight but failing to cover in a 6-point home win over Cal and a 7-point home win over Stanford.  And it’s a tired Colorado team that will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days here tonight. 

Oregon is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Colorado.  The Buffaloes are 13-38-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  The Ducks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record.  Oregon is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games.  The home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The favorites is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. 

The Buffaloes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after being called for 10-plus fewer fouls than their opponents.  Colorado is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after having won three of its last four games.  The Buffaloes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  These four trends combine for a 33-2 system backing the Ducks.  Take Oregon Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -1.5 

The Indiana Hoosiers are desperate for a win tonight as they sit at 15-8 on the season and on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament.  A win over a ranked Iowa team tonight would go a long way for them. 

Indiana is motivated due to coming in on four straight losses.  The Hoosiers fell at home to both Maryland and Purdue and on the road at Penn State and Ohio State.  I look for a big effort from them to get a much-needed win here.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 12 days so they are rested and ready to go. 

Iowa has been terrible on the road for years.  Nothing has changed this season as the Hawkeyes are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their six Big Ten road games with their only win coming at lowly Northwestern.  Indiana is 12-3 SU at home this season. 

The Hawkeyes are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 road games.  Iowa is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Hoosiers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Roll with Indiana Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2 

Missouri State only lost 69-71 at Drake as 5.5-point dogs.  The Bears will be highly motivated for revenge at home this time around.  They are also motivated off another 2-point loss at Southern Illinois.  The Bears are much better than their 11-14 record would indicate. 

The Drake Bulldogs have been great at home this season with a 12-1 record.  But they are just 2-7 SU in true road games and are underdogs for good reason tonight despite having the much better record than Missouri State. 

The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  Missouri State is 18-4 SU & 15-6-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Drake.  Roll with Missouri State Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -5 

Bradley just got its best player back on Elijah Childs (14.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG) from injury after he missed 12 games.  They also got leading scorer Darrell Brown (14.8 PPG, 4.5 APG) back from a two-game absence.  The defending MVC champs are going to be a dangerous team moving forward. 

Both Childs and Brown sat out their 53-61 loss at Indiana State on January 25th.  Now the Braves have both back and will be out for revenge at home this time around.  That’s good news for a Braves team that is already 13-1 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season and winning by 15.5 points per game on average. 

Indiana State has been great at home but is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  The Sycamores’ only two road wins came at Wright State and at Missouri State.  Their seven road losses have come by an average of 11.7 points per game. 

Bradley is 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Indiana State.  The Sycamores are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Braves are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Bradley is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 home games overall. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Bradley Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4.5 

UConn is coming off two straight upset wins at Tulsa and at home in overtime against Cincinnati.  Their luck runs out tonight on the road against a SMU team that is much their superior tonight. 

SMU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the American Athletic because they are the furthest team West in the conference.  The Mustangs are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 14.2 points per game.  That includes a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS record in AAC home games with all five victories by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.2 points per game. 

SMU is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with UConn with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.2 points per game.  UConn is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  It will be just the 3rd game in 11 days for the Mustangs tonight.  The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet SMU Wednesday.  

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -1.5 

West Virginia is favored for good reason tonight.  The Mountaineers are 12-0 at home this season and winning by a whopping 19.5 points per game.  They will improve to 13-0 with a win and cover tonight against their hated rivals in Kansas. 

The Mountaineers want revenge from a 53-60 loss at Kansas as 10-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They actually led that game 30-24 at halftime before letting it slip away late in the 2nd half.  So they showed they could hang with Kansas on the road, so I have no doubt they can beat them at home this time around. 

West Virginia is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Kansas.  The Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Jayhawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  West Virginia is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3 

The Kansas State Wildcats come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three straight and have been victims of a brutal schedule.  That schedule finally eases up tonight as they face arguably the worst team in the conference in Oklahoma State. 

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, so they have been competitive despite the losses.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama as 9.5-point dogs, by 9 at WVU as 13.5-point dogs, by 6 at home to Baylor as 7-point dogs and by 10 at Iowa State.  They also won and covered in an 8-point home win over Oklahoma as 2-point favorites. 

Oklahoma State is just 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big 12 games this season.  Kansas State owns Oklahoma State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while outscoring the Cowboys by an average of 17.8 points per game.  Three of the four wins came by double-digits. 

Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.  The favorite is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -4 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after winning four straight and covering five straight coming in.  Three of those wins were at home against bad Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Pitt teams.  The only road win came at Clemson without their best player. 

This is a much tougher challenge tonight for the Fighting Irish facing the defending national champs who are starting to play their best basketball of the season.  Virginia has won three of its last four with its only loss coming by 7 at Louisville as 7-point dogs.  They beat a very good Florida State team at home. 

Virginia comes in on two days’ rest after playing on Saturday while Notre Dame only has one day to get ready for the Cavaliers after playing on Sunday.  That’s a huge advantage here for the home team that isn’t being factored into the line enough. 

Virginia owns Notre Dame, going 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Fighting Irish are 0-7 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after two straight games committing eight or fewer turnovers.  Take Virginia Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +10 

The Dayton Flyers are 21-2 and the No. 6 ranked team in the country.  With that record and ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to.  The Flyers should not be double-digit favorites against a very good Rhode Island team tonight. 

We’ve seen the odds catch up to the Flyers as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only won by 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites, won by 14 at home over Fordham as 24-point favorites and only won by 6 at home over Saint Louis as 14-point favorites. 

Rhode Island is the second-best team in the conference.  The Rams are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 games this season.  They have won 10 straight coming in, including a 31-point win at George Washington on Saturday.  They also beat VCU by 12 and by 9 in their two meetings, and they topped Duquesne by 22, which are two of the other best teams in this conference.  They have proven they can hang with a team of Dayton’s caliber. 

The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Rhode Island is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Roll with Rhode Island Tuesday. 

15* FSU/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +8.5 

Duke is coming off its shocking 98-96 road win over its biggest rival in North Carolina Saturday night.  This is a massive letdown spot for the Blue Devils despite the fact that they are playing a ranked Florida State team. 

The Blue Devils trailed that game against UNC for like 95% of the game and only led in overtime.  The fact that they had to go to OT makes them less fresh.  They gave it all to come back from a double-digit deficit in the final few minutes of regulation, and a 5-point deficit in the final 21 seconds of OT. 

Florida State should still be fresh after crushing Miami 99-81 as 13.5-point home favorites on Saturday.  Plus, this is just the 2nd game in 7 days for the Seminoles.  They are the much deeper of these two teams as Leonard Hamilton consistently plays 10-plus players.  That depth is a huge advantage for the Seminoles tonight. 

The Seminoles are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Roll with Florida State Monday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson PK 

The Clemson Tigers are highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Wake Forest and Virginia.  Now they’re back home and hosting Notre Dame in a game they just have to win to cover. 

Clemson is 4-0 in its last four ACC home games with wins over Syracuse, Duke, NC State and Wake Forest.  I think we get a big effort from the Tigers here Sunday. 

Notre Dame is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off three straight wins and four straight covers.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Irish as those three wins all came at home against some of the worst teams in the ACC in Wake, Georgia Tech and Pitt. 

The Fighting Irish are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS win.  The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Clemson Sunday. 

15* Wichita State/Houston ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Wichita State +5 

I love the spot for the Wichita State Shockers Sunday.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on a Shockers team coming off two straight losses and one that is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Wichita State wants revenge from a 54-65 home loss to Houston in which they shot just 30.4% from the floor.  I have no doubt the Shockers will want this game more due to the revenge factor and coming off two straight losses by a combined 4 points. 

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on Houston, which has made backers a lot of money over the last month or so.  The Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I faded them with success last time out on Tulane +16.5, and I’ll fade them again Sunday. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Wichita State) - off a conference loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that failed to cover but win SU as a favorite in their last game are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Shockers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.  Wichita State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 Sunday games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Wichita State Sunday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Illinois -3 

Southern Illinois comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Salukis are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall and a real contender to win the Missouri Valley Conference. 

No team has a bigger home-court advantage in the conference than the Salukis this season.  They are 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS at home and holding opponents to just 56.0 points per game and 38.5% shooting. 

Missouri State is just 3-9 in all games played away from home this season.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming at home against lowly Illinois State.  They are just 5-17 SU in their last 22 trips to Southern Illinois. 

Southern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Salukis are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida Atlantic -2.5 

I love the spot for Florida Atlantic today.  The Owls face a home-and-home situation with rival Florida International here.  They lost 50-69 on Wednesday at FIU as 3-point dogs.  And now they’ll be out for revenge just three days later here and I expect them to get their payback at home this time around. 

Both of these teams have huge home-court advantages.  Florida Atlantic is 12-1 at home this season with its only loss coming by 3 points to UAB.  FIU Is 11-1 at home this year but just 5-7 in all road games.  The Golden Panthers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with all four losses coming by 14 points or more. 

Florida Atlantic is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games off an ATS loss.  Florida Atlantic is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis +13.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from a 76-78 (OT) home loss to Dayton on January 17th.  They get their shot at revenge now catching a whopping 13.5 points on the road in the rematch. This is simply too many points tonight. 

I think the Billikens come in undervalued off their loss to Duquesne on Wednesday as 4.5-point home favorites.  It’s pretty easy to see they were overlooking to Duquesne and looking ahead to this showdown with Dayton.  And it’s worth noting that Duquesne is one of the best teams in the conference and also only lost to Dayton by 4. 

Simply put, it’s time to ’sell high’ on Dayton.  We’re starting to see the Flyers overvalued due to being a Top 10 team and winning 11 straight coming in.  But they failed to cover their last two games winning by just 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites and by 14 at home over a bad Fordham team as 24-point favorites. 

Dayton is 2-10 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Billikens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens will rise to the occasion and give the Flyers a run for their money.  Take Saint Louis Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana -2 

I love the spot for the Indiana Hoosiers today.  They are highly motivated for a win following three straight losses.  And they have had a full week off having last played Saturday, so they are fresh and ready to go. 

The three losses are easily explainable as two of them came on the road to Penn State and Ohio State and the other they blew a 6-point lead in the final minute to fall 76-77 to Maryland, which owns the best record in the Big Ten. 

Indiana is 12-2 at home this season.  They host a Purdue team that is just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season with its only wins coming at Ohio and at Northwestern by 3.  They lost at Marquette by 10, at Nebraska by 14, at Illinois by 26, at Michigan by 6, at Maryland by 7 and and Rutgers by 7. 

Purdue is 0-6 ATS in conference road games this season.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Boilermakers are 2-11 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons.  Purdue only has two days to get ready for the Hoosiers after beating Iowa at home Wednesday.  Bet Indiana Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M +8 

Buzz Williams has the Texas A&M Aggies improving rapidly in his first season on the job.  What has been most impressive is how well the Aggies have played on the road in conference play. 

Indeed, the Aggies are 4-1 ATS in SEC road games this season.  They beat Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point dogs, upset Missouri as 10-point dogs and upset Tennessee as 9.5-point dogs.  They can certainly hang with South Carolina Saturday. 

The Gamecocks only have two days to get ready for Texas A&M after losing 70-84 at Ole Miss on Wednesday.  The Aggies last played on Tuesday and get an extra day of prep for this contest.  I think it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Gamecocks, who have covered six of their last eight coming in.

Texas A&M is also out for revenge from a 67-81 home loss to South Carolina on January 18th just a few weeks ago.  Well, it was the best shooting game of the season for the Gamecocks as they went 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range, while Texas A&M was just 3-of-14 (21.4%).  It was a complete aberration as the Gamecocks average just 6 made 3’s per game this season and shoot it at a 31.3% clip.  It’s not going to happen again.

South Carolina is 4-15 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a dog overall.  The Gamecocks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Maryland/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -2 

The Illinois Fighting Illini want revenge from a tough 58-59 loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season.  I think we are getting Illinois at a tremendous value as only 2-point favorites at home in the rematch. 

Illinois has been the best team in the Big Ten over the last month.  The Fighting Illini are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Iowa last time out after they blew a big lead in the first half.  The Fighting Illini are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 18.7 points per game. 

Illinois also has the rest advantage as they come in on four days’ rest after last playing on Sunday while Maryland is on just two days’ rest after playing on Tuesday.  And I have no doubt the Terrapins come in overvalued after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS I their last five games overall coming in. 

Maryland is just 2-4 SU in its last six true road games with its only wins coming at lowly Northwestern and at Indiana by 1 after they erased a 6-point deficit in the final minute.  They won’t be so fortunate tonight against arguably the best team in the Big Ten in Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Illinois Friday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulane +16.5 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Tulane Green Wave.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and are now catching a whopping 16.5 points at Houston because of it.  They have dropped below .500 for the first time this season and will be highly motivated tonight. 

Houston is coming off a tough 62-64 road loss at Cincinnati, which is one of their biggest challengers to win the AAC this season.  It’s the type of loss that will be hard to get over, and the Cougars may not be 100% focused tonight, especially playing a team that has lost five straight coming in like Tulane. 

The Cougars will be without one of their best players in Dejon Jarreau (9.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG), who does a little bit of everything for this team.  He has been suspended for biting a Cincinnati player.  Quentin Grimes (12.0 PPG) is battling a hip injury, though he is expected to play tonight. 

Tulane is 14-4 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Tulane is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS after making 78% of their free throws or better this season.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Tulane Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota -3 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three of their last four coming in against a brutal schedule as they were a dog in all four games and actually did well to win one. 

They lost on the road to Rutgers and Illinois as well as a home to Michigan State.  But they pulled the upset at Ohio State.  Now they are back home here where they are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  That includes are 4-1 home record with wins over Ohio State by 13, Northwestern by 9, Michigan by 8 and Penn State by 6. 

Wisconsin is in an obvious letdown spot off its 64-63 upset home win over Michigan State on Saturday.  The Badgers are 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue and by 6 at Iowa. 

Minnesota is 14-5 ATS in home games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 12-3 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  Minnesota is 8-0 ATS off a road loss where it scored 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Gophers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Badgers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.  Take Minnesota Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -2 

The Providence Friars want revenge from a tough 74-78 road loss at Creighton as 6-point underdogs on January 18th.  Now they get their shot at revenge just over two weeks later at home this time around in a game they basically just have to win to cover. 

Providence has lost three of its last four but was competitive in all three losses.  They only lost by 4 at Creighton, by 9 at Seton Hall and by 4 at home to Villanova.  But they pulled the upset at Butler last time out as 6.5-point dogs, so they are battle-tested. 

Creighton is in a huge letdown spot off its shocking 76-61 win at Villanova as 6.5-point dogs.  The Bluejays wanted revenge from blowing a double-digit lead at Villanova earlier this season.  Now I think they relax here off four straight wins and Providence simply wants this game more. 

Providence is 8-3 SU at home this season.  Creighton is 1-10 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet Providence Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +9.5 

The Florida Gators have been consistently overvalued, especially here of late.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Baylor by 11 and Mississippi State by 7 while also narrowly beating lowly Vanderbilt by 6 as 11.5-point road favorites last time out. 

Georgia has gone a solid 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Bulldogs just handled Texas A&M 63-48 at home as 6.5-point favorites and now hit the road to take on a Florida team that they have had no problem beating in Gainesville in recent years. 

Indeed, Georgia is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Florida.  That includes a 61-55 win as 11-point dogs and a 72-69 (OT) win as 10-point dogs in their last two trips to Gainesville.  And now they are catching 9.5 points again this year.  Asking Florida to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. 

Florida is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Gators are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Georgia Wednesday. 

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Saint Louis -4.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from one of its worst losses of the season.  The Billikens fell 59-73 at Duquesne as 2.5-point dogs on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  Now the Billikens get the Dukes at home this time around. 

Saint Louis is 11-2 at home this season with one of its losses coming to one of the best teams in the country in Dayton by 2 in overtime.  The Billikens are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Duquesne.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  They will protect their home court tonight and get revenge in blowout fashion. 

The Dukes have really fallen off since that win over Saint Louis.  They are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their three wins coming in narrow fashion against three of the worst teams in the Atlantic 10.  They beat George Washington by 5, Fordham by 2 as an 18-point home favorite and La Salle by 2 as a 9.5-point home favorite.  They also lost by 22 at Rhode Island and by 9 at Umass as a 5.5-point favorite. 

Saint Louis is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games off two straight road games.  The Dukes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Duquesne is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Saint Louis Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -3.5 

Fading Evansville has been an absolute ATM machine and it will continue to be tonight.  This is an Evansville team with a lot of turmoil with head coach Walter McCarty stepping down mid-season.  And their best player in Deandre Williams (16.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been out since January 4th with a back injury. 

Evansville has gone 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS in Missouri Valley play this season.  Seven of those 10 losses have come by double-digits as they’ve rarely even been competitive.  They don’t stand much of a chance of even being competitive tonight either. 

Southern Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the MVC right now.  The Salukis are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in all five games.  They upset Drake and Illinois State on the road, as well as Drake, Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago at home.  They aren’t about to fall to Evansville tonight after winning all those games against the best teams in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 9-1 ATS when playing against a bad team (20% to 40%) over the last three seasons.  Evansville is 0-8 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Salukis are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  The Salukis are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Purple Aces are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Evansville is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 Wednesday games.  These six trends combine for a 44-1 system backing the Salukis tonight.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* Villanova/Butler FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Butler -2 

Butler wants revenge from a 61-76 road loss at Villanova in their first meeting on January 21st.  They also want to bounce back from an upset home loss to Providence.  It’s safe to say the Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight for both reasons and we’ll get their ‘A’ effort. 

Butler is 10-2 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.  They face a Villanova team that is overvalued right now after winning seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Wildcats just lost at home 61-76 to Creighton as 6.5-point dogs, so they are far from invincible. 

Villanova is 2-8 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season.  Butler is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games off a conference loss as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Wildcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a double-digit home loss.  Villanova is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Butler Wednesday. 

15* Mississippi State/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -6.5 

The Kentucky Wildcats return home highly motivated for a victory off a loss at Auburn over the weekend.  They have responded very well after their last two losses, beating Louisville 78-70 as 1.5-point favorites and winning at Arkansas 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs.  The Wildcats are 12-1 at home this season. 

Now the Wildcats host a Mississippi State team that is starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them here as this will be their toughest test of the entire season tonight.  The Bulldogs have just two wins in true road games this year. 

Kentucky owns Mississippi State, going 13-0 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Wildcats are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings while winning those five games by an average of 18.0 points per game.  The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan -2 

After dropping four straight, the Michigan Wolverines have bounced back nicely with road wins and covers over Nebraska and Rutgers.  Look for them to continue their recent surge with an easy home win over the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight. 

This is an Ohio State team that has been grossly overvalued in Big Ten play and continues to be tonight.  The Buckeyes are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall despite being favored in eight of those nine contests.   

Their only wins came at home against Nebraska and Indiana and on the road at Northwestern, the worst team in the Big Ten.  They lost by 14 at Penn State, by 12 at Indiana and by 12 at Maryland in their other three true road games during this stretch. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Take Michigan Tuesday. 

15* Baylor/K-State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State +7.5 

No question oddsmakers have had a tough time setting lines for Baylor because they keep covering.  The Bears have opened 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in Big 12 play as backers continue to get rewarded for betting the No. 1 ranked team in the country. 

But with all that point spread success and No. 1 ranking eventually comes expectations that they cannot live up to.  And I think the Bears are finally overvalued here as 7.5-point road favorites at Kansas State.  This is a game I could see them losing outright. 

While we’ll ‘sell high’ on Baylor, we’ll ‘buy low’ on a Kansas State team that is much better than its 9-12 record would indicate.  Eight of those 12 losses have come by single-digits, so the Wildcats have been hard up on their luck in close games.  KenPom has the Wildcats 343rd out of 353 teams in the luck factor this season. 

Kansas State has been through the gauntlet lately and is battle-tested because of it.  The Wildcats are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  Their only blowout loss came at Kansas.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama and by 9 at WVU.  They upset WVU by 16 as 7-point dogs and handled Oklahoma by 8 as 2-point favorites in their only two home games during this stretch.  The Wildcats are 8-3 at home this season. 

Kansas State owns Baylor, going 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Baylor is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Take Kansas State Monday. 

20* Texas/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas +14.5 

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from a 66-57 home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks on January 18th just two weeks ago.  They led The Jayhawks 31-26 at halftime before getting outscored by 14 points after intermission.  They will be highly motivated for revenge because of it. 

You’re really paying a tax to back the Jayhawks because they are ranked No. 3 in the country right now.  And that is especially the case when they play at home.  The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, beating Texas Tech by 3 as 8.5-point favorites, Tennessee by 6 as 13-point favorites, WVU by 7 as 10-point favorites and losing outright to Baylor by 12 as 7.5-point favorites. 

Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Kansas not once losing by more than 12 points in those five games.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Texas Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle +9.5

This is a great spot to fade the Duquesne Dukes.  They just lost a heartbreaker to a Top 10 opponent in Dayton by a final of 69-73 as 8-point home underdogs.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat in time to face La Salle this afternoon.

It has been a string of poor performances for the Dukes outside that effort against Dayton.  Duquesne is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The two wins came against lowly George Washington (by 5) as an 8-point road favorites and Fordham (by 2) as an 18-point home favorite.  They also lost by 9 at UMass as 5.5-point favorites and were crushed by 22 at Rhode Island. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on La Salle, which has lost six straight coming in.  But they were competitive in almost every loss and only lost by 3 at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and by 1 to St. Louis as 3.5-point home dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10, so they have proven the can play with teams like Duquesne. 

Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less.  The Explorers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  La Salle is 6-0 ATS after playing three straight games as an underdog this season.  Duquesne is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with La Salle Sunday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago -5 

I love the spot for Loyola-Chicago Saturday.  They are coming off two straight road losses at Northern Iowa (OT) and at Southern Illinois, which have been two of the best home teams in the Missouri Valley. 

Now the Ramblers return home highly motivated for a win Saturday.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with its last three wins all coming by 16 points or more over Indiana State by 20, Southern Illinois by 16 and Evansville by 34. 

The Ramblers also want revenge from a 51-53 loss to Bradley in the MVC Tournament last year.  Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Bradley with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington State +9 

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been a very tough out at home this season and should not be catching 9 points against Arizona given the spot. 

Arizona comes in on one days’ rest after an overtime win at Washington on Thursday.  Washington has had two days’ rest since its home win over Arizona State on Wednesday.  That is a big advantage for the Cougars in this one. 

Washington State is 10-2 SU at home this season.  The Cougars are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four Pac-12 home games despite being an underdog in all four.  They upset UCLA 79-71 as 2-point dogs, upset Oregon 72-61 as 9-point dogs, upset Oregon State 89-76 as 3.5-point dogs and upset Arizona State 67-65 as 2-point dogs. 

Oddsmakers continue to give the Cougars no respect at home tonight, and we’ll gladly take advantage.  The Wildcats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  They don’t deserve this kind of respect.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Take Washington State Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +8.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska off six straight losses.  But the Huskers are rapidly improving under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg despite the losses.  They have been a lot more competitive since they’ve jumped into Big Ten play. 

Indeed, the Huskers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes upset home wins over Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs and Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Indiana to OT on the road, and covered in road losses to NW, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Rutgers.  They just aren’t getting blown out. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Penn State after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with huge wins over Ohio State and Indiana at home as well as struggling Michigan on the road.  This is a clear letdown and lookahead spot now with Michigan State on deck Tuesday. 

Nebraska comes in on three days’ rest while Penn State comes in on just two days’ rest.  The Nittany Lions are 1-3-2 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  The Huskers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +2 

Oregon’s luck will run out today at Stanford.  The Ducks have won four straight with two of those in OT and also a 5-point win at lowly Cal.  Now they face a pissed off Stanford team that will beat them outright. 

The Cardinal are highly motivated for a victory after dropping three straight coming in.  They are back home here where they are 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  One of those losses was to Kansas while the other was an upset loss to Oregon State last time out.  I just can’t see them dropping two straight at home here. 

The home team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The only exception was a 2-point win by Oregon as 7-point favorites.  Stanford has pulled the upset in two of their last three home meetings with Oregon.  And this is the best team the Cardinal have had in a long time. 

The Cardinal are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games.  Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Cardinal are 49-24 ATS in their last 73 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -2.5 

The Texas Longhorns are 8-3 at home this season while the Iowa State Cyclones are just 1-7 in all road games.  It’s a pretty easy choice here with the Longhorns laying just 2.5 points at home Saturday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Texas is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Iowa State. 

The Cyclones are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Iowa State is coming off two straight deflating losses against Top 25 teams in Auburn and Baylor and won’t be able to get up for the Longhorns.  Bet Texas Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +11 

Ole Miss is starting to play up to its potential finally.  In their last two games they went on the road and upset Georgia 70-60 as 7-point underdogs and took Auburn to overtime in an 82-83 loss as 5.5-point dogs.  They can certainly hang with LSU Saturday. 

The Tigers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 9-0 SU in their last nine games overall.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, too.  Six of their last seven wins have remarkably come by 4 points or fewer. 

The Tigers have a rest disadvantage.  They come in on two days’ rest after playing Alabama on Wednesday while Ole Miss comes in on three days’ rest after facing Auburn on Tuesday.  That extra day of prep will be huge for the Rebels. 

Ole Miss also wants revenge from a 76-80 home loss to LSU on January 18th about exactly two weeks ago.  The Rebels are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.  The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton +7 

Creighton wants revenge from a 59-64 home loss to Villanova on January 7th.  The Bluejays blew a double-digit lead in that game.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull the upset today and get their revenge. 

The Bluejays have proven they can compete on the road this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games.  They pulled road upsets over Arizona State, Xavier and DePaul and only lost by 3 at Georgetown during this stretch. 

Creighton has the rest and preparation edge as they come in on five days’ rest after playing on Sunday while Villanova is only on three days’ rest after playing on Tuesday.  That advantage plus the revenge factor makes Creighton worth a bet as 7-point dogs here. 

The Bluejays are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Creighton is 6-2 ATS in its last eight Saturday games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  After being a 2-point favorite in the first meeting, the Bluejays are now 7-point dogs in the rematch, a 9-point adjustment that is too much.  Bet Creighton Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +6.5 

Georgia Tech wants revenge from a 74-78 home loss as 1.5-point home favorites over Notre Dame on January 15th about two weeks ago.  The Yellow Jackets blew a late lead in that game and haven’t forgotten. 

I like the rest advantage here for the Yellow Jackets.  They got a freebie against Morehouse on Tuesday in an 82-54 win.  So that was like a practice game for them.  Notre Dame just played on Wednesday and only has two days’ rest to get ready for Georgia Tech. 

This is a big number for Notre Dame to be laying.  They have just one win in ACC play by more than 4 points, which was against Wake Forest at home.  Six of their last seven games have been decided by 5 points or less as well. 

The Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Georgia Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games overall.  The Fighting Irish are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.  Notre Dame is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday. 

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida International -2 

Florida International is a perfect 9-0 at home this season and winning by 16.5 points per game.  I’ll gladly back them as only 2-point home favorites over Marshall tonight in this Conference USA showdown. 

Marshall is just 2-6 SU in true road games this season with its only wins coming against poor Middle Tennessee and Morehead State teams.  They lost by 11 at UAB and by 7 at Western Kentucky in their two most recent road games. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Thundering Herd are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Golden Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Florida International Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Tech -2 

This feels like a great spot to back the Texas Tech Red Raiders at home.  They are coming off two straight losses to TCU and Kentucky.  The OT loss to Kentucky snapped a 54-game home winning streak in non-conference play. 

Now the Red Raiders welcome 12th-ranked West Virginia.  Texas Tech is 9-2 at home this season, while the Mountaineers are 3-3 in true road games.  That includes a 16-point loss at Kansas State in their last road games, and we’ve seen K-State struggle to win any games lately. 

Texas Tech will also be out for revenge from a 12-point loss at West Virginia in their first meeting on January 11th just over two weeks ago.  WVU had a 35-to-7 edge in free throw attempts, which was the difference in that game.  That FT discrepancy won’t be nearly as lopsided in the rematch in Lubbock this time around.  And Tech has the size inside to match up with the Mountaineers better than most teams. 

The Red Raiders are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Texas Tech Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -1 

The Kansas State Wildcats have been one of the most unlucky teams in all of college basketball.  They rank 344th out of 353 teams in KenPom’s luck factor, which basically tells you how lucky a team has been to have the record that they have. 

I have no doubt that Kansas State is much better than its 8-11 record would indicate.  Seven of those 11 losses have come by single-digits, including their tough 74-77 loss at Alabama as 9-point dogs over the weekend. 

One of those close losses was a 61-66 setback at Oklahoma as 7-point dogs on January 4th in their first meeting this season.  That places the Wildcats in revenge mode tonight. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings, and the Wildcats just have to win to cover. 

Oklahoma is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Oklahoma has just two true road wins all season over North Texas (by 2) and Texas.  Bet Kansas State Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +5.5 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the LSU Tigers off eight straight wins.  Remarkably, each of LSU’s last six wins have all come by 4 points or less.  They are simply getting lucky in close games and have a better record than they deserve to have at this point. 

Alabama just can’t seem to get any respect from oddsmakers.  The Crimson Tide are 10-3 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their only losses during this stretch came by 7 at Kentucky, by 6 at Florida in OT and by 2 at Penn State.  They haven’t been blown out since November. 

Alabama is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with LSU.  The Crimson Tide have only lost one of those eight games by more than 5 points.  SO I think there’s a lot of value on the Crimson Tide catching 5.5 points in a game they can win outright. 

LSU is just 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or less this season.  The Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Alabama Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State -3.5 

Both Drake and Indiana State are unbeaten at home this season.  Drake is 11-0 at home with one of its closest games coming against Indiana State in a 4-point win over the Sycamores on January 4th.  That places the Sycamores in revenge mode at home this time around. 

Indiana State is 8-0 at home this season.  They have been tremendous on defense at home, giving up just 56.8 points per game and outscoring their opponents by 12.4 points per game.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home in MVC play and winning by 14.0 points per game with all four wins coming by 8 points or more. 

Drake is just 2-5 SU in true road games.  The two wins were against two very bad teams in Evansville and Air Force.  Drake’s five road losses have come by an average of 16.6 points per game. 

Indiana State is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or less this season.  Drake is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Sycamores are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -2.5 

The Air Force Falcons are the better team here and should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Fresno State.  The Falcons were 9-9 but dropped three straight coming in.  Look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder tonight to get back in the win column. 

Fresno State is just 6-14 on the season, including 2-9 in all road games.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall with their only two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Wyoming.  Each of their last five losses have come by 9 points or more. 

That includes Fresno State’s 53-87 home loss to Boise State over the weekend.  Nate Grimes started serving his suspension in that game for conduct detrimental to the team.  He had 23 points against Colorado State the game prior, and he averages 12.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.  He is their best player and his loss to suspension is huge. 

Air Force is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Fresno State.  The Falcons are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Air Force Tuesday. 

15* Florida/Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +2 

I love the spot for the Virginia Cavaliers tonight.  It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on a Cavaliers team that has been a money burner for backs this season, going 13-6 SU but 5-14 ATS on the year.  Now they find themselves as home underdogs for the first time all season. 

Virginia wants revenge from a 50-54 road loss at Florida State on January 15th less than two weeks ago.  I have no doubt they’ll be the more motivated team as a result, and I look for them to have their revenge on the Seminoles. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Florida State, which is 17-2 and has won 10 straight coming in.  But the Seminoles were fortunate to escape with an 83-79 (OT) win at Miami as 6-point favorites and an 85-84 home win over Notre Dame as 9-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

The Seminoles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Florida State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Virginia is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.  Bet Virginia Tuesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +11 

The Texas A&M Aggies have some impressive road results here of late that has me attracted to them as double-digit road underdogs at Tennessee.  This is too many points tonight folks. 

Texas A&M Is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three road games.  The Aggies only lost by 10 at Arkansas as 14.5-point dogs.  They upset Vanderbilt 69-50 as 3.5-point road dogs.  And they pulled the 66-64 upset at Missouri as 10-point dogs. 

Tennessee is in a bad spot tonight.  The Vols just played 3rd-ranked Kansas on the road over the weekend and took them to the wire in a 68-74 defeat as 13-point dogs.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face Texas A&M at home tonight. 

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  Texas A&M is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Vols are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Kansas/Oklahoma State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State +7 

Bill Self admitted that his team was tired from the aftermath of the suspension following the fight with Kansas State.  The Jayhawks only beat Tennessee 74-68 as 13-point home favorites on Saturday. 

Now, the Jayhawks have to still be tired playing their 2nd game in 3 days here.  They miss the depth provided by starter David McCormack and reserve Silvio De Sousa.  The Jayhawks now have to use a five-guard lineup when Udoka Azubuike goes out, which makes them susceptible underneath on both ends. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys are 0-6 in Big 12 play, but they have been much more competitive in their last three games.  They led most the way against top-ranked Baylor before falling 68-75 at home.  They hung tough with Iowa State in an 82-89 road loss.  And their 73-62 win at Texas A&M over the weekend provides them with the confidence they need to try and take down Kansas tonight. 

Oklahoma State has played Kansas very tough at home recently.  The Cowboys are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Kansas.  Their two losses both came by exactly 5 points, so they haven’t lost any of the five by this 7-point spread.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Oklahoma State Monday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -5 

The Drake Bulldogs are a real contender to win the Missouri Valley this season.  They are 14-6 this year and have been one of the best covering teams in all of college basketball over the last few seasons. 

A big reason for Drake’s success is that they defend their home court.  Indeed, the Bulldogs are 10-0 at home this season and winning by 15.3 points per game.  They are 3-0 at home in MVC play with wins over Loyola-Chicago, Indiana State and Illinois State. 

Missouri State is just 2-5 in true road games with its only wins at Evansville and Illinois State, two of the worst teams in the MVC.  Drake is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Missouri State.  The Bulldogs won both meetings by double-digits last year. 

Drake is 36-13-2 ATS in its last 51 home games.  The Bulldogs are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Drake is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 18-8 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with Drake Sunday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2 

The Indiana Hoosiers want revenge from a 59-75 loss at Maryland on January 4th in their first meeting.  Considering how well the Hoosiers have played at home this season, they should have their revenge this afternoon. 

Indeed, Indiana is 12-1 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.  They just upset Michigan State as 4-point home underdogs and also crushed Ohio State by 12 and Florida State by 16 at home. 

Maryland is just 1-4 SU in true road games with its only win coming at Northwestern, which is the worst team in the Big Ten.  The Terrapins lost at Wisconsin (by 2), Iowa (by 18), Seton Hall (by 4) and Penn State (by 7). 

The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings, so home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  And the Hoosiers basically just have to win to cover at home today.  The Terrapins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.  Take Indiana Sunday. 

15* Washington/Colorado FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +8 

The Washington Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are much better than their 12-8 record would indicate, but they have just been unfortunate in close games this year.  And I expect this game against Colorado to come down to the wire, so getting 8 points is a great value. 

Indeed, Washington is 12-8 with seven of their losses coming by 7 points or fewer.  So they have only been beaten by more than this spread one time in 20 games this season.  KenPom has a luck factor for teams that shows how lucky are unlucky they are to have the record they have.  Well, Washington is 347th out of 353 teams in the luck category.  This is more like a 15-5 team rather than a 12-8 team. 

Colorado is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 15-4 record and No. 23 national ranking.  But this is a Colorado team that is fortunate to have that record as they are 66th in the luck department.  And they have been upset by both Oregon State and Northern Iowa at home this year, so they are far from invincible at home. 

Colorado’s best player in Tyler Bey is questionable with a hand injury after sitting out last game against Washington State.  Bey averages 13.1 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 9.3 RPG while also leading the team in 3-point percentage (47.1%).  Chances are he plays but he’s far from 100% with a hand injury. 

Washington owns Colorado, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  That includes two upset wins as road underdogs winning 77-70 as 2.5-point dogs and 72-62 as 5-point dogs in its last two trips to Boulder.  Expect more of the same as the Buffaloes struggle with the size and defensive prowess of the Huskies, who give up just 62.7 PPG and 36.9% shooting this season.  Roll with Washington Saturday. 

20* Baylor/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida -2 

This is one of those rare situations where the unranked team in Florida is favored over the ranked team in Baylor.  And it’s not just any ranked team, it’s the No. 1 Baylor Bears.  And I fully agree with Florida being the favorite here. 

You can bet it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere for the Gators at home Saturday night with the No. 1 team coming to town.  And the Gators have defended their home court to near-perfection.  They are 7-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Florida State, which is the No. 5 ranked team in the country.  They just beat 16th-ranked Auburn by 22 in their last home game. 

I don’t believe Baylor is the best team in the country.  That ranking clearly went to their head when they were nearly upset by Oklahoma on Monday in a 61-57 win as 11-point home favorites.  They also barely won their previous game against lowly Oklahoma State as they trailed the entire way until the final minutes.  That’s an Oklahoma State team that is 0-6 in Big 12 play. 

Baylor usually has a big rebounding edge against most opponents, but that won’t be the case against Florida.  The Bears average 6 more boards per game than their opponents while the Gators average 5 more boards per game than their foes.  And it’s worth noting Florida (22nd) has played the tougher schedule than Baylor (47th).  The Gators are battle-tested and ready to take down the top-ranked team in the country.  Take Florida Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane -1.5 

The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Head coach Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State in turning around those two programs.  And he’s doing the same in his first season at Tulane thanks to transfers. 

This is a Tulane team that has made me a lot of money this season.  They covered 4 straight recently to open AAC play.  They covered in narrow road losses to Memphis and UConn, while also upsetting Cincinnati as an 8-point home dog and Temple by 16 as a 9-point road dog. 

I think that stretch took its toll on Tulane because the Green Wave have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost at home to UCF and Tulsa.  But now they’ve had a full week to recover as they last play on Saturday, coming in on six days’ rest.  Expect one of their best efforts of the season to try and bounce back from those two losses. 

East Carolina is at a huge scheduling disadvantage.  The Pirates only come in on two days’ rest after losing 64-84 at SMU on Wednesday.  That followed up a 25-point loss at Cincinnati and a 16-point home loss to Tulsa.  Tulane is power rated about 8 points better than ECU according to KenPom, and when you factor in the favorable scheduling spot the Green Wave should be more than 1.5-point favorites here. 

ECU is 2-14 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 1-9 ATS after playing five consecutive games as an underdog over the last two seasons.  ECU is 2-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 0-7 ATS vs. excellent ball-handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.   

The Green Wave are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Tulane is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take Tulane Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State -2.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Oregon State Beavers, who have lost three in a row both SU & ATS coming in.  That has them highly motivated for a win tonight as they host the USC Trojans. 

USC is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Oregon in overtime.  I think that’s the kind of loss that beats them twice here.  Especially since the Trojans only have one day to recover from that contest on Thursday plus have the travel.  Oregon State gets to stay at home after facing UCLA Thursday and will be the much fresher, more prepared team. 

The Beavers are 8-2 at home this season.  They won both meetings with USC last year and should be able to handle this USC team that lost by 32 at Washington and by 9 at Oregon in two of its recent road games. 

Oregon State is 13-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Beavers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off an ATS loss.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Oregon State Saturday. 

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State -2.5 

The Indiana State Sycamores are highly motivated for a win off two straight road losses to Valparaiso and Loyola-Chicago.  And now they will certainly get up for defending MVC champ Bradley today.  I believe the Sycamores are favored for good reason. 

Indiana State is 7-0 at home this season.  That includes a 3-0 home record in conference play with all three wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 16.0 points per game.  The Sycamores are one of the most underrated teams in the MVC this season as they’re a veteran squad that returned four starters. 

Bradley comes in overvalued after winning four of their last five and going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.  But they could be without their top two scorers Saturday.  Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG) is for sure out, while Darrell Brown (14.2 PPG) is questionable with a quad injury after sitting out last game. 

Bradley is just 2-4 SU in true road games this season.  They lost to a very bad St. Joe’s team as 5-point road favorites, lost by 15 at Memphis, lost by 16 at Miami Ohio as 2-point favorites and also lost at Northern Iowa.  Their only two road wins came against poor Missouri State and Evansville teams. 

Indiana State has won five of its last seven meetings with Bradley.  The Sycamores are 17-5 SU in their last 22 home meetings with Bradley.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Indiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet Indiana State Saturday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13 

I love fading the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in this spot.  They just got ranked this week for the first time since the 1978-79 season.  And they are now getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to that Top 25 ranking. 

I know Rutgers is 13-0 at home this season, but that is being factored into the line way too much.  Also this is an overreaction from Rutgers beating Nebraska 79-62 on the road on January 3rd in their first meeting this season. 

I’ll gladly side with the revenge-minded Huskers, who are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Huskers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs and Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs.  They just aren’t getting blown out as they have only been beaten by more than 14 points once in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska is 10-2 ATS in January road games over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 13-4 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Rutgers is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more.  The Scarlet Knights have just two days to prepare while the Huskers have three days to get ready after playing on Tuesday.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -3.5 

The Michigan Wolverines are showing great value as a short home favorite Saturday over Illinois.  We are getting the Wolverines at a discount because they have lost three straight coming in both SU and ATS.  That has them highly motivated for a win here Saturday. 

Adding to the motivation is the fact that Michigan wants revenge from a 62-71 loss at Illinois in their first meeting this season.  Well, home-court advantage has been huge for the Wolverines in this series as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Fighting Illini.  The home team is 27-11-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings.  And Michigan has faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire country this year so they are battle-tested. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Illini, who have won five straight coming in.  But three of those wins were by 4 points or fewer, including narrow home wins over Rutgers (by 3) and Northwestern (by 4).  And Illinois just lost its first player off the bench in Alan Griffin (8.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to a two-game suspension.  Griffin also leads the team in 3-point percentage (39.4%) and FT percentage (89.5%). 

Michigan is 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 15-4 ATS off a loss over the last three years.  Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Fighting Illini are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Michigan Saturday. 

20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -4 

The Purdue Boilermakers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They are coming off a rare home loss to Illinois and have dropped four of their last five overall with the other three losses coming on the road.  Look for them to get back in the win column with a blowout victory over Wisconsin Friday. 

Purdue is now 15-1 SU in its last 16 Big Ten home games to show you how rare that loss to Illinois really was.  The Boilermakers are 8-2 at home this season with impressive wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29. 

Wisconsin has gone 3-3 in true road games with blowout losses to NC State by 15 and Michigan State by 12, as well as a loss at Rutgers by 7.  Purdue has gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Wisconsin. 

The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons.  The Boilermakers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games off a loss.  Purdue is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Purdue Friday. 

20* UCLA/Oregon State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -7.5 

The Oregon State Beavers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Washington and Washington State. 

Now the Beavers return home where they are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game.  They crushed Arizona 82-65 in their last home games and have one of the better home-court advantages in the Pac-12. 

UCLA is a dumpster fire right now.  It is 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with its only wins coming against Cal and Washington.  Five of those six losses came by 8 points or more, so the Bruins have been blown out on the regular. 

Oregon State is 8-1 ATS off two straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Bruins.  UCLA is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Bruins are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Beavers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS loss.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games off a SU loss.  Roll with Oregon State Thursday. 

15* Michigan State/Indiana FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4 

Home-court advantage has been huge in the Big Ten this season.  That has especially been the case for the Indiana Hoosiers, who are 11-1 at home and winning by 15.9 points per game this season.  They have impressive wins over Florida State by 16 and Ohio State by 12 at home this year. 

Michigan State has clearly been vulnerable on the road.  The Spartans are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in true road games this season.  They only won by 3 at Seton Hall as 5.5-point favorites.  They only won by 5 at Northwestern as 12-point favorites.  And they were blasted by 29 at Purdue as similar 4.5-point favorites. 

Indiana upset Michigan State in both meetings last season.  They won 79-75 as 14-point road dogs and 63-62 as 6-point home dogs.  And the Hoosiers are night and day better than they were a year ago as this is easily the best team that Archie Miller has had in his tenure.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Indiana is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in all neutral/road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite.  The Hoosiers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Take Indiana Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington PK 

Washington (12-7) and Utah (10-7) have similar records this season, but there is a big difference between these teams.  I have the Huskies power-rated 10 points better than Utah on a neutral, so I’ll gladly back them as a pick ‘em here tonight. 

Washington has been one of the most unlucky teams in the country this season in close games.  They rank 348th out of 353 teams in the ‘luck’ factor because of these close losses.  Six of Washington’s seven losses have come by 7 points or fewer, including four by 4 points or less. 

Utah also has seven losses this season, but five of those seven have come by 16 points or more and by an average of 19 points per game.  That includes a 22-point loss to Coastal Carolina, a 39-point loss to Colorado, a 28-point loss to San Diego State, a 19-point loss to Arizona State and a 16-point loss to Arizona. 

Utah is 0-6 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Utes are 4-14-3 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog.  Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a dog.  The Utes are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games.  Bet Washington Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -5.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have been flying under the radar all season in going 14-4 and getting ranked for the first time since the 1970’s.  But with that national ranking and record comes expectations that are going to be hard to live up to. 

I think Rutgers suffers an emotional letdown after getting ranked.  It’s also a good time to ’sell high’ on the Scarlet Knights after going 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Rutgers has done most of its damage at home this season.  But the Scarlet Knights are just 1-4 in all games played away from home this season with their only win coming against lowly Nebraska. 

Iowa is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Big Ten home games, outscoring Minnesota, Maryland and Michigan by an average of 15.0 points per game.  I would argue all three of those teams are better than Rutgers. 

Iowa is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Hawkeyes are 9-2 ATS as favorites this season.  Iowa is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  Fran McCaffery is 10-1 ATS in home games off two straight games with 19 or more assists as the coach of Iowa.  Bet Iowa Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4 

Mississippi State had big expectations heading into 2019 with all the talent they returned.  But they opened just 9-6 with some bad losses.  However, they have certainly played up to their potential in their last two games.  It has been two of the most impressive performances in the SEC all season. 

The Bulldogs beat Missouri by 27 at home and Georgia by 32 at home in their last two games.  They covered the spread by a combined 50 points in those two contests.  And now I think we’re getting the Bulldogs cheap again at home Wednesday against the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

The Razorbacks are coming off a tough home loss to Kentucky Saturday.  I usually like fading teams after facing Kentucky because it’s always hard for them to get up for their next opponent.  And Mississippi State owns Arkansas, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while covering the spread by a combined 64 points in those four games. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Arkansas) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a blowout home win by 20 points or more are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Mississippi State Wednesday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +4.5 

I love the spot for the Syracuse Orange tonight.  They want revenge from an 87-88 home loss to Notre Dame on January 4th.  They go from being 3.5-point favorites in that game to 4.5-point dogs in this rematch.  I think the wrong team is favored here. 

Syracuse has been playing its best basketball of the season since that loss to Notre Dame.  The Orange are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, upsetting Virginia 63-55 as 7-point road dogs, crushing Boston College 76-50 as 11.5-point home favorites and upsetting Virginia Tech 71-69 as 4-point road dogs. 

That was also a revenge game against VA Tech after losing at home to the Hokies.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Orange have played their best basketball on the road this season with their upset wins over Virginia, VA Tech and also Georgia Tech 97-63. 

Syracuse is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 road games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Orange are 8-1 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  The Orange are 11-3 ATS in conference road games over the last two seasons.  Notre Dame is 0-6 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 10-19 ATS in their last 29 home games.  Notre Dame is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 games off an ATS win.  Roll with Syracuse Wednesday. 

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -5 

I love the spot for the Michigan Wolverines tonight.  They’ll be highly motivated for a win off back-to-back road losses at Minnesota and Iowa.  They have lost three of their last four overall with all three coming on the road. 

Now the Wolverines return home tonight on four days’ rest and ready to get back in the win column.  Michigan is 10-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Oregon in overtime.  And the Wolverines have won eight of their last nine meetings with Penn State. 

Penn State has been great at home but is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing by an average of 16.3 points per game.  The Wolverines are 64th out of 353 teams in 3-point percentage (36%) while the Nittany Lions are 253rd defending the 3 (34.1%). 

Michigan is 15-3 ATS off a loss over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 10-2 ATS in conference home games over the last two years.  Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Michigan Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John’s +8.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on St. John’s after losing five of their last six games overall.  The Red Storm have been undervalued for over a month as they are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have taken some good teams to the wire and have also beaten some very good teams. 

Indeed, the Red Storm have upset wins over West Virginia and Arizona.  They only lost by 2 to Butler, by 3 to Seton Hall, by 5 to Providence and by 8 to Xavier during this stretch.  They only have one loss by more than 8 points in their last 13 games and only two losses by more than 8 points all season. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Marquette after two straight wins and covers over Xavier at home and Georgetown on the road.  This is a Marquette team that had lost by 14 at Seton Hall and to Providence at home in their two games prior.  It’s just not a Golden Eagles team that can be trusted to lay a big number like this against a quality opponent. 

St. John’s is 8-2 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Golden Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take St. John’s Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +15 

Wisconsin ranks 351st in adjusted tempo out of 353 teams this season.  They play at a snail’s pace, which makes it very difficult for them to win by margin.  I will gladly fade them as 15-point home favorites over Nebraska tonight. 

It’s certainly a letdown spot for the Badgers as well.  They have played four ranked teams in their last five games.  They won’t be able to get up for Nebraska like they were in those five games, which were all decided by 12 points or fewer. 

Nebraska is undervalued right now due to its 7-11 record.  But the Huskers are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Huskers have gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with only one loss by more than 12 points during this stretch.  That includes upset wins over both Purdue and Iowa. 

This has been a very closely-contested series through the years.  Indeed, each of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 15 points or fewer.  Nine were decided by 12 points per less.  That makes for a 9-0-1 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 15-point spread.  Bet Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -5.5 

This is a great spot to back the Purdue Boilermakers.  They are highly motivated for a win after losing three of their last four, and they want revenge from a 37-63 loss at Illinois in which they couldn’t make anything, shooting 25% as a team and 3-of-17 from 3-point range. 

But all three of those losses came on the road.  Purdue has won 15 straight Big Ten home games dating back to February 2018.  They have won six straight home games against ranked teams.  They are 8-1 at home this season including wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29. 

No. 21 Illinois is starting to get some love from oddsmakers after winning four straight and moving into the Top 25 for the first time this season.  But they were fortunate to win their last three, beating Wisconsin by 1 on the road, and Rutgers by 3 and Northwestern by 4 at home.  Their luck runs out tonight against a hungry Boilermakers squad. 

Purdue is 9-2 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  Purdue is 7-0 SU in its last six home meetings with Illinois winning by 12.1 points per game on average.  The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  Purdue is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Purdue Tuesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +17 

This number has gotten out of control for a rivalry game between Kansas and Kansas State.  I’ll gladly side with the road underdog Wildcats in what should be a defensive battle with limited possessions and that favors the big road dog. 

The Wildcats are 8-9 this season and undervalued because of their record.  But keep in mind they have six losses by 8 points or fewer.  All nine losses have come by 14 points or less as well, so they haven’t lost by a margin this big all season.  And they’re coming off a huge confidence-building 84-68 upset of West Virginia as 7-point dogs. 

West Virginia took Kansas to the wire in a 53-60 road loss at 10-point dogs.  Baylor won outright at Kansas by 12 as 7.5-point dogs.  Those were the Jayhawks’ last two home games.  They are actually playing better on the road than at home this season.  They’ve consistently been overvalued at home. 

Each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 16 points or less, making for a 7-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 17-point spread.  The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Kansas State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog.  Roll with Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* Oklahoma/Baylor ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma +10 

The No. 1 ranked Baylor Bears have won 14 straight to improve to 15-1 on the season.  They have started 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in Big 12 play as well.  With all this success comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to, and thus we’ll ’sell high’ on the Bears. 

Baylor had no business covering against Oklahoma State on Saturday.  They trailed the entire way against a Cowboys team that had previously been 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in Big 12 play with blowout loss after blowout loss.  But they pulled away in the closing minutes to win 75-68 and covered as 5.5-point favorites. 

Oklahoma has opened 3-2 in Big 12 play with an impressive upset win at Texas by 10 as 3-point underdogs.  They blew out TCU 83-63 at home on Saturday and should still be fresh for this game against Baylor because of it.  The Sooners are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, though, so I think this is a good opportunity to ‘buy low’ on them. 

Plays on road dogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Oklahoma) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight conference wins are 59-28 (67.8%) ATS since 1997.  The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Oklahoma Monday. 

15* Temple/SMU ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on SMU -5 

The SMU Mustangs are coming off two straight road losses to East Carolina and Houston.  Now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Temple Owls.  I love the spot for the Mustangs tonight. 

SMU has one of the biggest home/road splits in the country in recent seasons.  They have a tremendous home-court advantage as they are 9-1 at home this season and winning by 13.3 points per game. 

Temple is in a letdown spot off its upset home win over Wichita State as 4-point dogs.  After all, the Owls were 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games.  They lost by 14 as 9-point home favorites over Tulane, by 4 as 3-point home dogs to Houston and by 26 at Tulsa as 2.5-point favorites.  So that win over Wichita State was an aberration, and they caught the Shockers in a favorable spot as they were coming off an OT win at UConn. 

The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  SMU is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last three home meetings with Temple with the three wins coming by 23, 14 and 9 points.  The Mustangs are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 Saturday games.  SMU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Bet SMU Saturday. 

15* Louisville/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -7 

The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a shocking 72-79 loss at Clemson as 10.5-point favorites.  It’s safe to say they will return home highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Louisville Cardinals.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against 11th-ranked Louisville. 

I believe Louisville is a fraud.  The Cardinals are coming off two straight narrow wins over Notre Dame and Pitt, needing OT to beat Pitt.  And they have recent losses to Florida State by 13 at home, by 13 to Texas Tech on a neutral and by 8 at Kentucky.  Duke is the best team in the country and should win at home by more than 7 points today. 

The Blue Devils are 9-1 at home this season and winning by 23.9 points per game.  The Cardinals are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Blue Devils are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games off a loss.  Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Duke Saturday. 

20* Houston/Wichita State AAC No-Brainer on Wichita State -3 

The Wichita State Shockers are 15-2 this season and a legit threat to win the American Athletic this season.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the Houston Cougars today. 

The Shockers will be highly motivated for a win after a loss at Temple.  Now they are back home where they are 12-0 this season and outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game.  They have wins over the likes of Oklahoma (by 5), VCU (by 10), Ole Miss (by 20) and Memphis (by 9) at home this season. 

The Houston Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after feasting on an easy schedule and going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Only two of those were true road games, and they were fortunate to win by 4 at Temple while also getting upset at Tulsa as 6.5-point favorites.  This is a Houston team that lost a lot of talent from last season and only brought back one starter. 

The Shockers are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Wichita State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Shockers are 22-10-3 ATS in their last 35 games overall.  Roll with Wichita State Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -1.5 

I love the spot for the Oregon Ducks tonight.  They are coming off a shocking upset loss at Washington State as 9-point favorites.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win at Washington to make up for it tonight. 

The Huskies are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  And this is an Oregon team that they haven’t handled in the past.  The Ducks are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Huskies. 

One matchup advantage that is going to be huge for Oregon is their pressure defense up against a sloppy Washington offense.  The Huskies rank 284th in turnovers at 15.1 per game.  Oregon plays a pressure defense that will capitalize on those turnovers. 

Washington is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games off two straight games where it was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Ducks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.  Oregon is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oregon is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog.  Take Oregon Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Tulane PK 

Tulane had covered four straight prior to a 55-74 upset home loss to UCF.  It was a predictable letdown off their 65-51 upset win as 9-point dogs at Temple a few nights before.  They also upset Cincinnati as 8-point home dogs and covered as double-digit road dogs to Memphis and UConn during this stretch. 

Now the Green Wave will be highly motivated for a win after that letdown against UCF.  And we are getting them at a tremendous value in a situation where they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. 

Few teams have had bigger home/road splits than Tulsa in recent years.  While the Golden Hurricane are 9-2 at home this year, they are just 2-4 in all road games.  Their only road wins came against poor ECU and Vanderbilt teams.  They lost by 14 at UT-Arlington, lost at Kansas State, lost by 19 at Arkansas and lost by a whopping 31 at Cincinnati.  That’s the same Cincinnati team that Tulane already beat. 

Tulane is 3-0 and winning by 13.3 points per game against common opponents of Tulsa, which is 2-1 against those same three teams and only winning by 0.6 points per game.  Tulane is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% this season.  The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Bet Tulane Saturday. 

20* Auburn/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida -1.5 

Auburn finally had its 15-game winning streak to start the season come to an end with a 64-83 loss at Alabama on Wednesday.  Now bubble has burst and I always like fading teams in their next game out after their extended winning streak has come to an end.  They seem to let a team beat them twice in this situation. 

Florida will be the fresher team after making easy work of Ole Miss 71-55 at home on Tuesday as they come in on three days’ rest while Auburn only comes in on two days’ rest. The Gators are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to a Top 10 Florida State team. 

Auburn hasn’t won at Florida since 1996.  In fact, the Gators are 12-0 SU in their last 12 home meetings with Auburn.  So they basically just have to win to cover this short number at home tonight.  And you can bet the Gators want revenge from a loss to Auburn in the SEC Championship last year.  Take Florida Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M -1.5 

Texas A&M is flying under the radar because their season-long stats aren’t a true picture of how well this team is playing right now.  They got off to a rough start in Buzz Williams’ first season, but now they have turned a corner and are playing better than most teams in the SEC right now. 

The Aggies have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall.  Their only losses came on the road at Arkansas by 10 as 14.5-point dogs and at home to LSU by 4 in OT as 6.5-point dogs.  They upset Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point road dogs, beat Ole Miss by 10 as 3-point home dogs and also upset Oregon State by 15 as 6.5-point home dogs. 

South Carolina is in a huge letdown spot after banking in a 3 at the buzzer to beat Kentucky at home as 6.5-point dogs on Wednesday.  Now they only have two days to get ready for Texas A&M, while the Aggies last played on Tuesday.  The Gamecocks had lost three straight prior to that Kentucky win, including getting upset by Stetson 56-63 as 22.5-point home favorites. 

South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Texas A&M is 10-2 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 1-10 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 22 or more fouls over the last three seasons.  Frank Martin is 1-8 ATS in road games off a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of South Carolina.  Buzz Williams is 12-3 ATS in home games off a home loss to a conference opponent in all games as a head coach.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday. 

15* Michigan/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -4.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes want to avenge their 91-103 loss at Michigan earlier this season on December 6th.  Now the Hawkeyes get the Wolverines at home this time around and it will be a completely different story. 

Iowa is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in eight games since that loss to Michigan.  That includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home with wins over Minnesota by 20, Kennesaw State by 42 and Maryland by 18.  They also pulled off road wins over Iowa State, Cincinnati and Northwestern during this stretch. 

The Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS a home this season and winning by 18.3 points per game.  The Wolverines are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games losing by 15 at Louisville, by 9 at Illinois, by 18 at Michigan State and by 8 at Minnesota.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  Take Iowa Friday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +2.5 

Arizona State lost to Colorado in the season opener in Shanghai, China.  That game didn’t count in the conference standings, but you know the Sun Devils want revenge on the Buffaloes in Temple, AZ this time around. 

The Sun Devils are certainly happy to be playing their first Pac-12 home game tonight following a brutal three games on the road.  They have played three of the best teams in the conference in Arizona, Oregon State and Oregon all on the highway and did well just to win one of those games considering they were double-digit dogs in two and 6-point dogs in the other. 

Conversely, Colorado has opened with three straight home games in Pac-12 play.  They beat Oregon and Utah but were upset by Oregon State as 7.5-point favorites.  Now the Buffaloes will be playing just their 3rd true road game of the season.  They lost by 14 at Kansas and won by 8 at Colorado State. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Colorado is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games off two consecutive games as a home favorite.  The Buffaloes are 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  The Sun Devils are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog.  Bet Arizona State Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Florida International -2 

The FIU Golden Panthers are one of my favorite teams in the country.  They returned basically everyone and they play a fun style at a fast pace while constantly applying pressure to their opponents. 

The Golden Panthers rank 20th in scoring offense at 80.2 points per game.  They have been tremendous at home, going 7-0 while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game.  Off two straight road losses, the Golden Panthers return home highly motivated for a win tonight. 

UAB is coming off two straight home wins over Western Kentucky and Marshall.  Now they hit the road where the Blazers have gone 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS with their only win coming at Troy.  They lost to Charlotte by 7 and Old Dominion by 5 in their last two road games, two teams that aren’t as good as FIU. 

FIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Golden Panthers are 15-4 ATS in tier last 19 home games off two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more.  FIU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take Florida International Thursday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -1 

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets basically just have to win to cover tonight at home against Notre Dame.  I expect them to do just that with how well they are playing coming into this game. 

Despite facing a brutal schedule with four road games in their last five, the Yellow Jackets have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in those five games.  They upset Hawaii by 17 and UNC by 13 on the road and crushed Boston College by 19 on the road.  Their lone home game was against Duke, and they played them down to the wire only losing by 9 as 11.5-point dogs. 

Notre Dame has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  While the Fighting Irish are 10-6 SU, they are just 5-9-2 ATS this season.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their five games played away from home with their only win coming at Syracuse by a single point. 

The Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Yellow Jackets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.  Georgia Tech is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with Notre Dame.  Georgia Tech is 10-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Take Georgia Tech Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3 

I like the spot for Marquette Wednesday night.  They are coming off two straight losses to Providence and Seton Hall and will return home highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are 10-2 at home this season with double-digit victories over Villanova, Purdue and USC. 

Marquette is a tremendous shooting team that shoot 40% from 3-point range, which ranks 9th in the country.  Five of their top six scorers all shoot at least 37% from distance.  Xavier is a poor shooting team at 29.7% on 3-pointers, which ranks 315th in the country. 

The Musketeers’ poor shooting is a big reason they’ve been so inconsistent.  While they are 12-5 SU, they are just 4-12-1 ATS.  They have lost three of their last four including double-digits home losses to both Creighton (by 12) and Seton Hall (by 12) as favorites.  Marquette won both meetings last year by 18 points at home and by 5 points on the road. 

Marquette is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 points or less this season.  Xavier is 2-9 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Musketeers are 1-8 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Take Marquette Wednesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State -10 

Two weeks have passed since Evansville placed coach Walter McCarty on leave to determine whether he violated Title IX.  The distractions have taken their toll on the Purple Aces as they have opened 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in MVC play, losing by an average of 17.3 points per game. 

Indiana State is a legitimate contender to win the Missouri Valley this season.  It’s a veteran team that returned four starters and has now gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Drake and Northern Iowa, two of the best teams in the conference. 

Indiana State is 6-0 at home this season and winning by 11.7 points per game.  They beat Illinois State by 13 and Southern Illinois by 12 in their first two home games to open conference play.  Another double-digit win can be expected tonight. 

Indiana State is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Evansville, including a 23-point home win last year.  The Purple Aces are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Wednesday games.  Evansville is 0-6 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season, while Indiana State is 9-2 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last two years.  Roll with Indiana State Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -2.5 

The Georgia Bulldogs are highly motivated for a win tonight off two straight losses to two of the best teams in the country in Auburn and Kentucky.  Now they are back home tonight and hosting a Tennessee team they can handle. 

Georgia is 8-1 at home this season and winning by 14.9 points per game.  Their only home loss came to Kentucky.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  Georgia is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Tennessee. 

The Vols lost almost everyone from last year’s team that made a run in the NCAA Tournament.  They did return Lamaonte Turner, but now he’s out for the season.  His loss has been huge as he averages 12.3 points and 7.1 assists per game this season. 

The Vols are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games with their only wins coming against Jacksonville State, South Carolina (by 1) and Missouri.  They lost by 14 at home to LSU, by 20 at home to Wisconsin, by 4 at home to Memphis and by 12 at Cincinnati.  The Vols are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a win.  The Bulldogs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Bet Georgia Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -2.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.  They have been a disappointment compared to preseason expectations with just a 9-6 start despite returning four starters from a team that was very good last year. 

It’s safe to say the Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three straight against an absolutely brutal schedule to open SEC play.  They lost at home to unbeaten Auburn and on the road to very good Alabama and LSU teams.  This home game against Missouri is easily their best chance to get their first conference win to date. 

Missouri is in a letdown spot off an upset home win over Florida over the weekend.  That followed up a 12-point loss at Kentucky and a 10-point home loss to Tennessee, so it really came out of nowhere.  They Tigers also lost at home to Charleston Southern and on a neutral by double-digits to both Oklahoma and Butler.  I think they’re getting too much respect for that Florida win, which is by far their best victory of the season. 

Mississippi State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Missouri.  The Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Ben Howland is 15-5 ATS after losing three of their last four games as the coach of the Bulldogs.  Roll with Mississippi State Tuesday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane -1 

The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under first-year head coach Ron Hunter.  He was great at IUPUI and Georgia State before and now he’s doing big things at Tulane already. 

Indeed, the Green Wave are off to a 10-6 start this season.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against the cream of the crop in the AAC.  They covered at Memphis as 15-point dogs, upset Cincinnati as 8-point home dogs, covered as 10-point dogs at UConn and upset Temple by 14 as 9-point road dogs.  The Green Wave are 6-0 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game. 

UCF lost all but one starter that helped them make some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year.  The Knights aren’t close to the same team they were last season.  They are just 9-7 with five straight losses coming in.  They lost at Houston by 15, but 4 at home to Temple and by 14 at home to Cincinnati.  That gives these teams a few common opponents that show Tulane is the superior squad. 

The Green Wave are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tulane is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games overall.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Tulane Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +6.5 

Buzz Williams took the job at Texas A&M after turning around Virginia Tech.  And after a slow start to the season, Williams has the Aggies playing their best basketball of the year entering SEC play. 

Texas A&M has gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall.  Their only loss came on the road by 10 to Arkansas as 14.5-point dogs.  They beat Oregon State by 15 as 6.5-point home dogs, upset Ole Miss by 10 as 3-point home dogs and crushed Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point road dogs. 

Now the Aggies are once again getting zero respect from oddsmakers as 6.5-point home dogs to LSU.  The Tigers are getting too much respect for their four-game winning streak, which features non-covers in narrow home wins over Arkansas by 2 and Mississippi State by 1 in their last two games coming in. 

Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS off a road game over the last two seasons.  LSU is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.  The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  Take Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Arizona/Oregon State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +4.5 

Head coach Wayne Tinkle is doing a great job at Oregon State.  He has the Beavers off to an 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS start this season.  And I believe the Beavers have a great chance to upset Arizona at home today. 

Oregon State has a great home-court advantage in going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in all home games this season.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Arizona State, so they’ll be motivated to bounce back tonight.  It was a letdown spot off their upset win as 7.5-point dogs at Colorado. 

Arizona is also 11-4, but the Wildcats have feasted on a home-heavy schedule.  They are 0-2 in their two true road games with losses at Baylor and Oregon.  They also lost to Gonzaga at home and to St. John’s on a neutral. 

Arizona is 0-7 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two seasons.  Oregon State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.  Roll with Oregon State Sunday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +7.5 

The Bradley Braves are without their best player in Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG) for the foreseeable future.  They are also without key role player Stephen Gabriel (4.0 PPG, 50% 3-pointers).  They are fade material for the foreseeable future until they get Childs back. 

Southern Illinois is playing too well to be catching 7.5 points from Bradley tonight.  The Salukis are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Illinois State by 12 and Valpo by 13 in their last two games coming in. 

Southern Illinois is 60-28 ATS in its last 88 road games after having won four of its last five games coming in.  Bradley is 0-6 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 4-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Bradley’s rebounding edge is definitely minimized with the loss of top rebounder Childs.  Roll with Southern Illinois Saturday.