25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Nevada +5.5 

Expectations are finally catching up to the San Diego State Aztecs.  Their 27-1 record and No. 5 national ranking come with expectations that are hard to live up to.  That has certainly shown in their last two games. 

The Aztecs lost outright as 14.5-point home favorites 63-66 to UNLV last Saturday.  Then they found themselves in a dog fight in a 66-60 home win over Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites on Tuesday.  And now they have to face arguably the hottest team in the Mountain West in Nevada. 

Nevada is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Wolf Pack boast one of the best players in the country in Jalen Harris (21.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG), who has scored at least 20 points in eight straight games coming in.  They actually led 35-33 at halftime at San Diego State in their first meeting.  You know they want revenge at home where they are 12-2 SU on the season this time around. 

The home team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Aztecs.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8 

The spot couldn’t be worse for BYU.  The Cougars are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, a 91-78 home win over Gonzaga as 4-point underdogs.  That win cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament no matter what they do the rest of the way. 

It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Cougars, who are just 5-5 SU in true road games this season.  And they certainly won’t be motivated to face a Pepperdine team that they already beat by 27 at home in their first meeting this season. 

Conversely, Pepperdine wants revenge from that defeat and to show that they can play with BYU.  The Waves are 9-4 SU at home this season with three of those losses coming by single-digits.  The only exception was a 12-point loss to Gonzaga as 15-point dogs. 

Plays on home teams (Pepperdine) - revenging. Blowout loss by 20 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent are 56-21 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Lorenzo Romar is 11-1 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less in two straight games as a head coach. 

Pepperdine is 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with BYU with all four wins in upset fashion.  BYU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games with a total set of 150 to 159.5.  Pepperdine is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Bet Pepperdine Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -3 

The Bradley Braves want revenge from their 51-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 5-point dogs on February 1st.  It will be a completely different story at Bradley this time around. 

The Braves are 15-1 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  And it’s worth noting the Braves didn’t have their best player in Elijah Childs (14.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG) in that first meeting with the Ramblers. 

Loyola-Chicago is 4-6 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in true road games this season.  The Ramblers are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five MVC road games with their only win coming by 7 at Evansville, which is 0-17 in MVC play.  The four losses have all come by 5 points or more and by an average of 12.8 points per game. 

Loyola-Chicago is 0-6 ATS in road games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last two seasons.  The Ramblers are 2-9 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Bradley is 57-29 ATS in its last 86 home games revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Bradley Saturday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +5.5 

Off two straight road losses at Colorado & Utah, the USC Trojans return home highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are a bubble team right now and could certainly use a win over a ranked team like Arizona tonight. 

Jonah Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Nick Rakocevic (11.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) both barely played against Utah Sunday due to illness.  Both are healthier now and listed as probable.  This should give the Trojans a big boost.  They are 11-2 SU at home this season. 

Arizona is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  The Wildcats only beat the Trojans 85-80 at home in their first meeting this season on February 6th.  Now the Trojans are out for revenge and catching 5.5 points at home this time around in the rematch. 

The Trojans are 11-4 ATS in conference games this season.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet USC Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Gonzaga -25.5 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are coming off just their 2nd loss this season with a 78-91 setback at BYU Saturday in one of the best atmospheres this season in all of college basketball.  Look for them to return home highly motivated tonight and to make easy work of San Diego. 

Gonzaga already beat San Diego 94-50 on the road as 15.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  If they can beat them by 44 on the road, the Bulldogs can certainly cover this 25.5-point spread at home. 

San Diego is just 2-12 SU & 5-8-1 ATS in West Coast Conference play this season.  They just lost their last game by 29 at St. Mary’s, which lost by 30 at home to Gonzaga a few weeks back. 

Gonzaga is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. a bad team that wins 20% to 40% of their games over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 35.5 points per game on average in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Gonzaga is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games following an upset loss to a conference opponent.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  Roll with Gonzaga Thursday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -2.5 

I love the value we are getting with Southern Illinois as only 2.5-point home favorites over Indiana State tonight.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Salukis after they have lost three of their last four coming in.  Two losses came on the road to Northern Iowa and Valpo and the other was a home loss to Bradley by 2 in overtime.  Those are three of the best teams in the conference. 

Southern Illinois has been a juggernaut at home this season.  The Salukis are 12-2 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season.  They have beaten some of the best teams in the MVC at home this year in Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago.  And they want revenge from a 56-68 road loss at Indiana State in their first meeting this season.  They should have their revenge considering the Salukis are 18-4 SU in their last 22 home meetings with the Sycamores. 

Indiana State is yet another MVC team that has been great at home but terrible on the road.  The Sycamores are 3-8 SU & 3-7-1 ATS in true road games this season.  And it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them off two straight wins over Northern Iowa at home and Evansville on the road by a combined 5 points. 

Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Salukis are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season, winning by 14.8 points per game on average.  The Sycamores are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Salukis are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Bradley -3.5 

The Bradley Braves are one of the best teams in the MVC when healthy.  And they just recently got fully healthy with their two best players returning from injury.  The Braves are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Valparaiso. 

Bradley should make easy work of one of the worst teams in the conference in Illinois State tonight.  The Redbirds are just 4-12 SU & 5-11 ATS in MVC play this season.  That includes their 63-75 loss as 8-point underdogs at Bradley in their first meeting this season. 

Bradley owns Illinois State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with those four wins coming by an average of 11.8 points per game.  This is a very short number for them to be laying tonight when they are clearly the superior team. 

The Braves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  The Redbirds are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Illinois State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games overall. Take Bradley Wednesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -5 

Off two straight losses, the Penn State Nittany Lions come back highly motivated for a win tonight against Rutgers.  They also have revenge in mind after falling 61-72 at Rutgers on January 7th.  Expect a big effort from the Nittany Lions tonight because of it. 

Penn State is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game at home this year.  Five of their six Big Ten home wins have come by 6 points or more. 

Rutgers is 1-7 SU in true road games this season with its only win coming at Nebraska.  Six of those seven losses have come by 5 points or more.  I just think this is a generous price to back the Nittany Lions tonight as only 5-point home favorites with all things considered. 

Rutgers is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games off two straight games where it attempts 12 or fewer free throws.  Penn State is 7-0 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Roll with Penn State Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4 

The SMU Mustangs will be highly motivated for a win tonight off back-to-back road losses at Tulane and Tulsa.  They host a Memphis team that they already beat 74-70 on the road earlier this season. 

I like SMU’s chances of bouncing back considering they have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country as well.  The Mustangs are 14-1 at home this season and just upset Houston at home in their last home game.  They are 6-0 at home in AAC play this season. 

Memphis is in a big letdown spot off its 60-59 upset home win over Houston.  The Tigers are 2-4 SU in AAC true road games this year with their two wins coming by a combined 6 points.  Their four losses have come by an average of 14.5 points per game. 

SMU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Memphis.  The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Memphis is 1-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this season.  Take SMU Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Loyola-Chicago -6.5 

Loyola-Chicago has one of the best home-court advantages in the Missouri Valley this season.  They are 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year.  And the Ramblers want revenge from a 62-65 road loss at Drake in their first meeting this season on January 7th. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home in MVC play this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.9 points per game.  They have won six of their eight home games this season by 9 points or more, including wins over Bradley by 11 and Northern Iowa by 9, which are two of the best teams in the conference. 

Drake has been overvalued big-time of late.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins both coming at home against Evansville by 5 and Valpo by 2 in OT.  The Bulldogs are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in MVC road games this season with their only win coming at Evansville, the worst team in the conference. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Drake, winning by an average of 11.8 PPG.  The Ramblers have won by 22, 15 and 15 points in their last three home meetings.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Loyola-Chicago is 15-4 ATS revenging a loss over the last three seasons.  The Ramblers are 12-2 ATS revenging a road loss over the last three years.  The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Ramblers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.  

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11 

These teams are way more evenly matched than this 11-point spread would indicate.  There’s a ton of value taking La Salle (13-13) over Davidson (14-12) as a double-digit underdog tonight. 

The Explorers are coming off two straight wins and covers at home over Fordham and on the road in upset fashion over George Washington by 10.  They have a 3-point loss at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at Duquesne as 9.5-point dogs to prove they can play with some of the best teams in the conference on the road.  They upset Davidson last year by 10 as 6.5-point dogs as well. 

Davidson has failed to cover its last two games coming in.  The Wildcats lost outright as 12.5-point road favorites at St. Joe’s, which is arguably the worst team in the Atlantic 10.  They did beat Rhode Island 77-75 at home over the weekend but didn’t cover as 2.5-point favorites. 

La Salle is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  La Salle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games overall.  Roll with La Salle Tuesday. 

20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State -8 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a fraudulent team, which is why they are 8-point road underdogs to Michigan State despite having the better record and ranking.  That will show tonight as the Spartans make easy work of the Hawkeyes. 

Iowa has been awful on the road this season.  It is just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its eight Big Ten road games with its two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern and Minnesota.  They lost by 36 at Purdue, by 12 at Indiana, by 12 at Michigan and by 10 at Maryland.  They also were upset by Nebraska on the road and failed to cover in a road loss at Penn State. 

Michigan State is coming off a 21-point win at Nebraska and simply owns the Hawkeyes.  The Spartans are 16-1 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with Iowa.  They have outscored the Hawkeyes by roughly 17 points per game in those 17 meetings. 

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 8-22 ATS in all road games over the last three years.  The Hawkeyes are 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Spartans are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take Michigan State Tuesday. 

20* Louisville/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5 

The Florida State Seminoles are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Louisville Cardinals.  The Seminoles are 23-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road and three of them by 6 points or fewer. 

Florida State is a perfect 14-0 at home this season and enjoying one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  And keep in mind the Seminoles already beat the Cardinals 78-65 as 6-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 4th. 

Louisville has lost its last two road games in upset fashion to two mediocre teams.  The Cardinals fell 58-64 at Georgia Tech as 6-point favorites and 62-77 at Clemson as 4.5-point favorites.  It’s asking a lot of them to pull the road upset here and hand the Seminoles their first home loss of the season. 

Louisville is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Florida State Monday. 

15* Maryland/Ohio State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -2.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing well and ready to take down Maryland today.  They are favored for good reason.  They want revenge from a 55-67 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season on January 7th.  They’ll have their revenge Sunday. 

The Buckeyes are 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Wisconsin and Iowa.  They also upset Michigan on the road and beat Northwestern on the road.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Maryland, which has won nine straight games coming in.  They did not play well at home against Northwestern last time out and only won by 9 as 14-point favorites.  It’s a case of their heads getting too big and lacking the focus they need to beat a team as good as Ohio State on the road today. 

The Buckeyes are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  Ohio State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite.  The Terrapins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Ohio State Sunday. 

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +15 

Few teams have come as close to beating San Diego State (26-0) as UNLV did a few weeks back.  The Runnin’ Rebels only lost 67-71 as 7-point home dogs to the Aztecs.  Now they’re highly motivated for revenge and to pull off the shocker in the rematch. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the unbeaten Aztecs, who have also managed to cover five in a row coming in.  Oddsmakers are forced to set this number higher than it should be knowing the public is going to continue pounding San Diego State. 

UNLV comes in playing well with three wins in their last four games.  Their only loss was a 3-point setback to Nevada in overtime.  They beat Fresno State at home and Colorado State by 24 at home, while also upsetting New Mexico on the road.  It’s a team that is proving rapidly under one of the most underrated head coaches in college basketball in T.J. Otzelberger. 

Otzelberger is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games as a head coach.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UNLV) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight wins over conference opponents are 62-33 (65.3%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with UNLV Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +9.5 

The Washington Huskies have no business being 9.5-point favorites against Cal tonight.  The Huskies are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Asking them to win this game is asking a lot, let alone asking them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to beat us. 

California is improving rapidly as the season goes on.  The Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with only two losses by double-digits during this stretch.  They hung tough in a 6-point road loss at Colorado as 16-point dogs and are coming off an upset at Washington State as 6.5-point dogs in a 9-point win. 

California already beat Washington 61-58 as 6.5-point home dogs.  And the Golden Bears have a huge rest advantage coming into this game.  They come in on two days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday while Washington played on Thursday in a 64-72 home loss to Stanford.  The Huskies only have one day in between games here. 

Washington is 0-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Washington is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games overall.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Golden Bears today.  Bet California Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8 

This is an awful spot for San Francisco.  The Dons had a golden opportunity to beat Gonzaga on Thursday, leading by 9 at halftime.  But they were dominated in the 2nd half and lost 54-71.  It’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice. 

There’s no way San Francisco is going to be able to get up for Pepperdine today.  They won’t be focused for this game, which will make it tough to cover this lofty 8-point spread. Not to mention, the Dons are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall anyway, so it’s not like they are playing well coming in. 

Pepperdine has been impressive here down the stretch as they are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games overall.  Two of those losses were by single-digits.  Pepperdine is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with San Francisco with just one loss coming by more than 7 points. 

The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  San Francisco is 0-6 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Pepperdine is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better over the last two years.  Take Pepperdine Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5 

The Syracuse Orange are desperate for a win to get back in the NCAA Tournament discussion.  They have dropped five of their last six against a gauntlet of a schedule with the losses coming to Duke, FSU, Louisville, Clemson and NC State with three of those losses on the road.  Only one of the losses came by double-digits, so they proved they could play with the best. 

Now the Orange get a break in the schedule here with Georgia Tech coming to town.  It’s a Yellow Jackets team that they already beat 97-63 on the road in their first meeting this season.  It’s a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets because you need to be able to make 3-pointers to be able to beat Syracuse.  Well, Georgia Tech ranks 323rd in the country in 3-point shooting (30.1%).  Bet Syracuse Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -2.5 

The George Washington Colonials are quietly playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with some very impressive wins along the way. 

Indeed, the Colonials are coming off two straight upset road wins at George Mason as 6-point dogs and at Duquesne as 10-point dogs.  They also upset Davidson at home and UMass on the road during this stretch.  They should be a bigger favorite over La Salle today. 

La Salle is 3-10 in Atlantic 10 play this season with its only wins coming against Fordham (twice) and St. Joseph’s, which are the two worst teams in the conference.  George Washington is 14-4 SU & 11-6-1 ATS in it last 18 home meetings with La Salle. 

The Explorers are 1-8 ATS in road games off a conference home win over the last three seasons.  The Colonials are 7-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  La Salle is 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The favorite is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take George Washington Saturday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri State PK 

The Missouri State Bears are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-2 SU but 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road at Southern Illinois by 2 at the buzzer and at Bradley in overtime.  Those are two of the best teams in the MVC. 

They also went on the road and won by 13 at Indiana State, crushed Drake by 35 at home and crushed Illinois State by 20 at home.  Now they want revenge from a 58-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 6-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on January 4th.  With the way they are playing right now, they will get their revenge at home. 

Loyola-Chicago has played very poorly on the road in MVC play this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  They lost by 5 at Northern Iowa, by 5 at Southern Illinois and by 29 at Indiana State.  Their only road win was against the worst team in the MVC in Evansville, and they only won that game by 7 points and failed to cover the number. 

Dana Ford is 10-2 ATS after two straight games where his team was called for 22 or more fouls in all games he has coached.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-13 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 11-4 ATS against conference opponents this season.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +1 

The Xavier Musketeers are coming up clutch here down the stretch with their NCAA Tournament lives at stake.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming at Butler by 5 as 5.5-point dogs. 

They went on the road and upset Seton Hall by 12 as 9-point dogs, upset DePaul on the road by 8 as 1-point dogs and also beat Providence at home and St. John’s on the road.  Now they’ve love to get revenge on Villanova from a 62-68 road loss in their first meeting this season. 

The Wildcats certainly have been vulnerable here of late.  They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only wins came against DePaul, Temple and Marquette by 1.  They were upset at home by both Creighton and Seton Hall and also lost on the road at Butler.  This Villanova team isn’t nearly as strong as some of Jay Wright’s teams in recent years. 

Villanova is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Xavier is 10-3 SU at home this season.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Xavier Saturday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5 

I love the spot for the Purdue Boilermakers Saturday.  They are coming off three straight losses to Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory when they host Michigan today. 

Purdue is 17-2 SU in Big Ten home games since last season.  The Boilermakers have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country.  And that has been on display this season with wins by 29 over Virginia, by 29 over Michigan State, by 19 over Wisconsin and by 36 over Iowa in four of their most impressive home performances. 

Michigan is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Wolverines.  They are coming off a win at Rutgers on Wednesday, which ended a 17-0 start at home for the Scarlet Knights.  It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Wolverines here Saturday. 

Purdue wants revenge from a 78-84 (OT) road loss at Michigan in their first meeting this season.  And the Wolverines may not have leading scorer Isaiah Livers (13.3 PPG), who sat out that Rutgers game with an ankle injury.  Michigan only has two days to get ready for Purdue while the Boilermakers have three days to get ready after last playing on Tuesday. 

Purdue is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after covering six or seven of its last eight games.  Matt Painter is 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of Purdue.  The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Purdue Saturday. 

20* VCU/Saint Louis ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Saint Louis +2 

The Saint Louis Billikens are 18-8 this season and a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  They need a big finish here to make the dance, and they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight because of it. 

The Billikens should not be home underdogs to the VCU Rams tonight.  Saint Louis is 12-3 at home this season with their only losses coming to Seton Hall, Dayton (by 2 in OT) and Duquesne.  Those are two of the best teams in the country and a bubble team in Duquesne. 

VCU is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall, so it is getting way too much respect from the books with how it is playing of late.  The Rams lost by 12 at Rhode Island and by 18 at Richmond in their two road games during this stretch.  They were also upset by George Mason as 14.5-point home favorites and fell to Dayton by 5 at home on Tuesday. 

VCU Is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Billikens are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games off a road loss.  VCU is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as an underdog.  Take Saint Louis. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +9.5 

The USC Trojans are playing too well right now to be catching 9.5 points from the Colorado Buffaloes.  The Trojans are 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have only lost one of those 11 games by more than 9 points. 

That was a shocking 57-78 home loss to Colorado as 1.5-point favorites on February 1st.  And that place right into my handicap here with the Trojans out for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season.  They will simply want this game more tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Colorado after winning four of their last five games overall.  But in their two home games during this stretch, they failed to cover both in a 6-point home win over Cal as 16-point favorites and a 7-point home win over Stanford as 8.5-point favorites. 

USC was able to win and cover its last two games with a 62-56 home win as 2-point favorites over Washington and a 70-51 home win over Washington State as 7-point favorites despite playing without leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker Onyeka Okongwu (16.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 3.0 BPG).  Well, Okongwu returns from a concussion tonight to give them a huge boost. 

USC is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in true road games this season.  USC is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Bet USC Thursday. 

15* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play.  They have won all six of their Big Ten home games by 5 points or more and should easily cover this 2.5-point spread tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Ohio State after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  Three of those five wins came at home while the two road wins came at Northwestern and Michigan (by 3).  The Buckeyes are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Buckeyes are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Iowa is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.   

The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this year.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers -2.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are still a perfect 17-0 at home this season and coming off a 15-point home win over a very good Illinois team.  I expect them to make easy work of Michigan at home tonight as well. 

The Wolverines are starting to get too much respect from the books again after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them as their two road wins during this stretch were against the two worst teams in the Big Ten in Nebraska and Northwestern. 

Rutgers will be the more motivated team because they want revenge from a 63-69 loss to Michigan on February 1st just a few weeks ago.  It’s going to be a raucous atmosphere inside The Rac for the rematch tonight as the Scarlet Knights look to remain unbeaten at home. 

Rutgers are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Scarlet Knights are 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* Syracuse/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +9 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on Syracuse after losing four of their last five coming in.  But all four losses came by 9 points or less.  They lost at Clemson by 1, at Florida State by 3, at home to NC State by 5 and at home to Duke by 9. 

That’s a brutal schedule and the fact that they hung tough in every game makes me believe they’ll have no problem staying within 9 points of Louisville tonight.  The Orange have won their last two meetings with the Cardinals, winning 69-49 at home and 78-73 on the road as 7-point dogs. 

Louisville isn’t playing well enough to be laying 9 points here.  They are 2-2 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset as 6-point favorites at Georgia Tech and lost by 15 as 4.5-point favorites at Clemson.  They only beat Virginia by 7 at home and failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites against Wake Forest in a 10-point win. 

The Orange are 12-4 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games this season.  Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -4.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the best teams in the country and probably the best team in the Big East in my opinion.  Off two tough losses to Creighton (by 5) and Providence (by 3), I fully expect the Pirates to come back home highly motivated for a victory tonight against Butler. 

Seton Hall went on the road and beat Butler 78-70 in their first meeting this season despite shooting just 41.4% overall and 29% from 3-point range.  They should have no problem covering the 4.5 points at home this time around as we would expect them to be more efficient from the floor. 

It’s clear now that Butler’s 15-1 start was fraudulent.  The Bulldogs have gone 4-6 SU & 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games since.  Their four wins during this stretch all came by 5 points or less, and their six losses have come by an average 11.0 points per game.  They were just upset by Georgetown as 12-point home favorites.  And three of their last four road games have resulted in losses by 13 points or more. 

Butler is 1-10 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 3-14 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last three years.  Butler is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 road games off a home loss.  The Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Pirates are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall, including 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Take Seton Hall Wednesday. 

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV -1 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on UNLV here as a short home favorite over Colorado State.  They have lost five of their last seven games overall with all five losses coming against the best teams in the Mountain West. 

The Runnin’ Rebels barely lost at home to unbeaten San Diego State by 4 and Nevada by 3 in OT.  The other three losses came on the road to Utah State, Nevada and Colorado State.  That road loss to the Rams placed the Runnin’ Rebels in revenge mode tonight as they get them at home this time around. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on a Colorado State team that has gone 9-2 SU in its last 11 games overall.  They have taken advantage of a soft schedule not having to play San Diego State during this stretch.  And they’ve lost both games against the best team they faced in Utah State. 

UNLV is 19-4 SU in its last 23 home meetings with Colorado State.  The Runnin’ Rebels basically just have to win to cover at home tonight.  They’ll get their revenge on the Rams in this one.  Roll with UNLV Tuesday. 

20* Kentucky/LSU ESPN No-Brainer on LSU -2.5 

This is a huge game for the LSU Tigers tonight.  They have dropped three of their last four games coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory.  This stretch followed a 10-game winning streak dating back to non-conference play. 

But all three of those losses came on the road, including an OT loss to Auburn and a 6-point loss at Alabama.  LSU is a dominant 13-1 at home this season and basically just need to win to cover this short number against Kentucky tonight. 

Kentucky has road losses to South Carolina and Auburn in SEC play this season.  They barely survived at home last time out over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites.  And I just don’t think this Kentucky team is as strong as many of the ones we’ve seen in year’s past. 

Kentucky is 0-8 ATS off three of more consecutive wins this season.  LSU is 17-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 points.  Bet LSU Tuesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3 

The Marquette Golden Eagles are playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  They have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming on the road at Butler by 4 (OT) and at Villanova by 1. 

Marquette is 12-1 at home this season and should be able to cover this short number against Creighton.  The Golden Eagles will have a huge rest advantage having last played on February 12th while Creighton last played on February 15th.  Basically, Marquette gets five days to prepare for Creighton while the Bluejays only have two. 

No question Creighton is playing well also having won seven of their last eight games overall.  But I just think Marquette is going to want this one more, especially considering they are out for revenge from a loss at Creighton in their first meeting this season on January 1st. 

Creighton is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  Marquette is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Marquette Tuesday. 

20* Xavier/St. John’s Big East No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5 

The Xavier Musketeers have played themselves back into the NCAA Tournament conversation.  They cannot afford a loss to St. John’s now, and I look for them to handle their business on the road here Monday night. 

Xavier has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  They upset Seton Hall by 12 a 9-point dogs, upset DePaul and topped Providence at home.  They only lost by 5 at Butler as 5.5-point dogs. 

St. John’s is 3-9 in Big East play this season with two of its wins against DePaul and the other against Providence.  The Red Storm just lost second-leading scorer Mustafa Heron (13.8 PPG) to an ankle injury and couldn’t afford to lose him. 

Xavier owns St. John’s, going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings.  They basically just have to win to cover tonight.  The Musketeers are 6-0 ATS after covering four of their last five ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Xavier Monday. 

15* Memphis/UConn ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4 

The UConn Huskies are playing well right now going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only losses came on the road at Memphis by 7 and on the road at SMU by 4.  They beat Temple by 15 at home, upset Cincinnati at home and upset Tulsa by 16 on the road. 

Now the Huskies want revenge from their 63-70 road loss at Memphis on February 1st.  They get an extra day to rest and prepare having three days off in between games.  Memphis only has two days off since its deflating OT loss at Cincinnati on Thursday.  That followed up an upset home loss to South Florida as 9-point favorites. 

UConn is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season.  Memphis is 2-3 SU in AAC road games this season while getting outscored by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Their two wins came by a combined 6 points over UCF and USF. 

Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  UConn is 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Huskies are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.  UConn is 16-7-2 ATS in its last 25 home games overall.  Roll with UConn Sunday. 

15* Villanova/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Temple +6.5 

The Temple Owls have turned the corner here in their last four games and are playing well enough to hang with a team like Villanova.  This is a huge rivalry game and the Owls will want this one more today in the home underdog role. 

Temple is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The only loss came at Memphis. They beat ECU by 12 at home and upset SMU by 7 at home.  They also went on the road and covered in a win at Tulane. 

Villanova is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Creighton and Seton Hall and also nearly lost to Marquette in a 1-point win as 6-point favorites.  They lost on the road at Butler as well.  It’s a solid Villanova team, but definitely one of the worst Villanova teams in the last decade. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS in February home games over the last three seasons.  Villanova is 2-9 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Villanova is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers once again today.  Take Temple Sunday. 

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are highly motivated for a win Sunday.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with tough road losses at Illinois and Penn State and a home loss to Michigan State.  They did beat Wisconsin by 18 in between at home. 

Minnesota is also out for revenge from a 52-72 road loss at Iowa in their first meeting this season.  Now the Gophers get the Hawkeyes at home this time around, where they are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  And the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has been huge. 

Iowa is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in Big Ten road games this season, losing those six games by an average of 13.2 points per game.  They just lost by 12 at Indiana on Thursday, who had lost four straight prior to that game.  Adding injury to insult is that they lost their best shooter in C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.7% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury in that defeat. 

Minnesota has a huge rest advantage in this game was well.  They have had seven days off in between games having last played on February 8th.  Iowa only has two days off to get ready for Minnesota after playing Indiana on February 13th. 

Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Iowa is 7-22 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 14-3 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Minnesota Sunday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -1.5 

Seton Hall should come back motivated for a win after an upset home loss to Creighton on Wednesday.  The good news for the Pirates is that they’ve actually played better on the road than at home, and we are getting them at a tremendous value today. 

Indeed, Seton Hall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in Big East road games this season.  That includes upset wins over Xavier, Butler and Villanova.  And they already beat Providence at home this season while shooting 57.8% and holding the Friars to just 35.9% shooting. 

Providence is 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall.  They have lost at home to both Villanova and Butler this season and don’t stand much of a chance of beating a team that caliber of Seton Hall, which is the best team in the Big East. 

The Pirates are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog.  Providence is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday. 

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina -3.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They have won seven of their last nine games overall and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  We are getting them at a tremendous value as only 3.5-point home favorites over Tennessee today. 

The most remarkable part of this 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run is that the Gamecocks have played six of those 10 games on the road.  All three of their losses came on the highway.  South Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home games upsetting Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog, and crushing Vanderbilt by 26, Missouri by 22 and Texas A&M by 20. 

Now the Gamecocks want revenge from a tough 55-56 road loss at Tennessee on January 11th in their first meeting.  The Vols have a plethora of injuries right now and just aren’t playing well, going 2-4 SU in their last six games overall.  They are without Turnver (12.3 PPG) and could be without both Pons (11.2 PPG) and James (7.8 PPG), who are questionable. 

Tennessee is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Vols are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  The Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Saturday games.  South Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet South Carolina Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +2 

The SMU Mustangs want revenge from a 62-71 road loss at Houston on January 15th.  I fully expect them to get their revenge at home this time around considering they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

SMU is an impressive 13-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game.  It will be a raucous atmosphere tonight with ranked rival Houston coming to town.  And the Mustangs still have a chance to win the AAC but must knock off the Cougars here. 

Houston came away with a fortunate 62-58 win at South Florida as 5.5-point favorites on Wednesday.  The Cougars trailed most the way until the final minutes.  Their luck runs out tonight at SMU. 

Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Mustangs are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  SMU is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 Saturday games.  Take SMU Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor -5.5 

The Baylor Bears have won 21 straight games with little to no signs of slowing down.  They are 11-0 at home this season and winning by 15.7 points per game.  They should handle West Virginia tonight. 

The Mountaineers are 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming at Oklahoma State, which may be the worst team in the conference.  They lost by 8 at Texas Tech, by 16 at Kansas State and by 10 at Oklahoma in their last three road games coming in.  I don’t see how they’re supposed to cover here against Baylor with their track record on the road this season. 

West Virginia is 1-11 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Baylor Saturday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Richmond -1.5 

Richmond wants revenge from a 68-87 road loss at VCU on January 28th.  These teams have gone in opposite directions since that game and I trust the Spiders to get the job done at home tonight in the rematch. 

Richmond is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games.  That includes a 22-point home win over George Washington and a 27-point road win at La Salle.  The Spiders are 10-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Dayton and Saint Louis. 

VCU is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three games since Richmond.  They lost by 12 at Rhode Island and were upset by George Mason at home as 14.5-point favorites.  Marcus Evans (10.3 PPG) suffered a knee injury in that loss to George Mason and is very questionable to play today. 

The Rams are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog, including 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.  The Spiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Richmond Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +6 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who have lost nine straight coming in and are highly motivated for a victory.  But the Huskers are playing much better than their record would indicate as they are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska upset Iowa 76-70 as 8-point home dogs and Purdue 70-56 as 13-point home dogs.  They only lost by 3 at Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs and just took Maryland to the wire in a 70-72 road loss as 17.5-point dogs.  Now they want revenge from a 68-82 road loss at Wisconsin on January 21st.  The Huskers only trailed 38-39 at halftime before falling apart in the second half. 

Wisconsin is 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS in all road games this season.  The Badgers are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Big Ten road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue, by 6 at Iowa and by 18 at Minnesota. 

The Huskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 0-6 ATS off a conference win this season.  Wisconsin is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Badgers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Nebraska Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +1.5 

Southern Illinois had won seven straight before suffering one of its worst losses of the season at Valparaiso on Wednesday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against defending MVC champ Bradley, and that loss should have them refocused. 

Now Southern Illinois wants revenge from a 48-67 road loss at Bradley in their first meeting this season.  Well, SIU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the MVC.  The Salukis are 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season with wins over the likes of Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago, which are arguably the two best teams in the MVC. 

While Southern Illinois is 6-0 SU at home in Missouri Valley play, Bradley is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  That includes very bad losses to St. Joe’s and Miami Ohio out of conference.  And one of their wins was against Evansville, the worst team in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 15-5 SU In its last 20 home meetings with Bradley.  The Salukis are 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Braves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite.  The Salukis are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

20* Davidson/St. Bonaventure ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -4 

St. Bonaventure has rebounded from a tough 1-4 start this season.  Interestingly, their lone win was against an NCAA Tournament team in Rutgers.  They have gone 16-4 since and have been flying under the radar in the Atlantic 10 this season. 

St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall coming in.  The Bonnies have only played 10 home games compared to 15 road games this season.  They are 7-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games and should be able to handle Davidson tonight. 

Davidson has been overvalued all season.  The Wildcats have been terrible on the road, going 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their 14 games played away from home.  That includes 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS records in their last seven true road games with their only win coming at Fordham, which is 1-10 in Atlantic 10 play and one of the worst teams in the conference. 

St. Bonaventure is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Davidson is 1-7 ATS in road games vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bonnies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Bonnies are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday. 

15* Colorado/Oregon ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -4.5 

This feels like a great spot for Oregon off back-to-back road losses to Stanford and Oregon State.  The Ducks are rested playing just their 2nd game in 12 days and are highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Adding to their motivation is that they are out for revenge from a 65-74 loss at Colorado on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  I think we get one of the best efforts of the season from the Ducks, who are 12-1 at home this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Colorado after winning three straight but failing to cover in a 6-point home win over Cal and a 7-point home win over Stanford.  And it’s a tired Colorado team that will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days here tonight. 

Oregon is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Colorado.  The Buffaloes are 13-38-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  The Ducks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record.  Oregon is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games.  The home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The favorites is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. 

The Buffaloes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after being called for 10-plus fewer fouls than their opponents.  Colorado is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after having won three of its last four games.  The Buffaloes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  These four trends combine for a 33-2 system backing the Ducks.  Take Oregon Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -1.5 

The Indiana Hoosiers are desperate for a win tonight as they sit at 15-8 on the season and on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament.  A win over a ranked Iowa team tonight would go a long way for them. 

Indiana is motivated due to coming in on four straight losses.  The Hoosiers fell at home to both Maryland and Purdue and on the road at Penn State and Ohio State.  I look for a big effort from them to get a much-needed win here.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 12 days so they are rested and ready to go. 

Iowa has been terrible on the road for years.  Nothing has changed this season as the Hawkeyes are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their six Big Ten road games with their only win coming at lowly Northwestern.  Indiana is 12-3 SU at home this season. 

The Hawkeyes are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 road games.  Iowa is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Hoosiers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Roll with Indiana Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2 

Missouri State only lost 69-71 at Drake as 5.5-point dogs.  The Bears will be highly motivated for revenge at home this time around.  They are also motivated off another 2-point loss at Southern Illinois.  The Bears are much better than their 11-14 record would indicate. 

The Drake Bulldogs have been great at home this season with a 12-1 record.  But they are just 2-7 SU in true road games and are underdogs for good reason tonight despite having the much better record than Missouri State. 

The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  Missouri State is 18-4 SU & 15-6-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Drake.  Roll with Missouri State Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -5 

Bradley just got its best player back on Elijah Childs (14.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG) from injury after he missed 12 games.  They also got leading scorer Darrell Brown (14.8 PPG, 4.5 APG) back from a two-game absence.  The defending MVC champs are going to be a dangerous team moving forward. 

Both Childs and Brown sat out their 53-61 loss at Indiana State on January 25th.  Now the Braves have both back and will be out for revenge at home this time around.  That’s good news for a Braves team that is already 13-1 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season and winning by 15.5 points per game on average. 

Indiana State has been great at home but is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  The Sycamores’ only two road wins came at Wright State and at Missouri State.  Their seven road losses have come by an average of 11.7 points per game. 

Bradley is 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Indiana State.  The Sycamores are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Braves are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Bradley is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 home games overall. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Bradley Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4.5 

UConn is coming off two straight upset wins at Tulsa and at home in overtime against Cincinnati.  Their luck runs out tonight on the road against a SMU team that is much their superior tonight. 

SMU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the American Athletic because they are the furthest team West in the conference.  The Mustangs are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 14.2 points per game.  That includes a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS record in AAC home games with all five victories by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.2 points per game. 

SMU is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with UConn with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.2 points per game.  UConn is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  It will be just the 3rd game in 11 days for the Mustangs tonight.  The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet SMU Wednesday.  

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -1.5 

West Virginia is favored for good reason tonight.  The Mountaineers are 12-0 at home this season and winning by a whopping 19.5 points per game.  They will improve to 13-0 with a win and cover tonight against their hated rivals in Kansas. 

The Mountaineers want revenge from a 53-60 loss at Kansas as 10-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They actually led that game 30-24 at halftime before letting it slip away late in the 2nd half.  So they showed they could hang with Kansas on the road, so I have no doubt they can beat them at home this time around. 

West Virginia is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Kansas.  The Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Jayhawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  West Virginia is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3 

The Kansas State Wildcats come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three straight and have been victims of a brutal schedule.  That schedule finally eases up tonight as they face arguably the worst team in the conference in Oklahoma State. 

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, so they have been competitive despite the losses.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama as 9.5-point dogs, by 9 at WVU as 13.5-point dogs, by 6 at home to Baylor as 7-point dogs and by 10 at Iowa State.  They also won and covered in an 8-point home win over Oklahoma as 2-point favorites. 

Oklahoma State is just 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big 12 games this season.  Kansas State owns Oklahoma State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while outscoring the Cowboys by an average of 17.8 points per game.  Three of the four wins came by double-digits. 

Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.  The favorite is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -4 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after winning four straight and covering five straight coming in.  Three of those wins were at home against bad Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Pitt teams.  The only road win came at Clemson without their best player. 

This is a much tougher challenge tonight for the Fighting Irish facing the defending national champs who are starting to play their best basketball of the season.  Virginia has won three of its last four with its only loss coming by 7 at Louisville as 7-point dogs.  They beat a very good Florida State team at home. 

Virginia comes in on two days’ rest after playing on Saturday while Notre Dame only has one day to get ready for the Cavaliers after playing on Sunday.  That’s a huge advantage here for the home team that isn’t being factored into the line enough. 

Virginia owns Notre Dame, going 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Fighting Irish are 0-7 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after two straight games committing eight or fewer turnovers.  Take Virginia Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +10 

The Dayton Flyers are 21-2 and the No. 6 ranked team in the country.  With that record and ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to.  The Flyers should not be double-digit favorites against a very good Rhode Island team tonight. 

We’ve seen the odds catch up to the Flyers as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only won by 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites, won by 14 at home over Fordham as 24-point favorites and only won by 6 at home over Saint Louis as 14-point favorites. 

Rhode Island is the second-best team in the conference.  The Rams are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 games this season.  They have won 10 straight coming in, including a 31-point win at George Washington on Saturday.  They also beat VCU by 12 and by 9 in their two meetings, and they topped Duquesne by 22, which are two of the other best teams in this conference.  They have proven they can hang with a team of Dayton’s caliber. 

The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Rhode Island is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Roll with Rhode Island Tuesday. 

15* FSU/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +8.5 

Duke is coming off its shocking 98-96 road win over its biggest rival in North Carolina Saturday night.  This is a massive letdown spot for the Blue Devils despite the fact that they are playing a ranked Florida State team. 

The Blue Devils trailed that game against UNC for like 95% of the game and only led in overtime.  The fact that they had to go to OT makes them less fresh.  They gave it all to come back from a double-digit deficit in the final few minutes of regulation, and a 5-point deficit in the final 21 seconds of OT. 

Florida State should still be fresh after crushing Miami 99-81 as 13.5-point home favorites on Saturday.  Plus, this is just the 2nd game in 7 days for the Seminoles.  They are the much deeper of these two teams as Leonard Hamilton consistently plays 10-plus players.  That depth is a huge advantage for the Seminoles tonight. 

The Seminoles are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Roll with Florida State Monday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson PK 

The Clemson Tigers are highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Wake Forest and Virginia.  Now they’re back home and hosting Notre Dame in a game they just have to win to cover. 

Clemson is 4-0 in its last four ACC home games with wins over Syracuse, Duke, NC State and Wake Forest.  I think we get a big effort from the Tigers here Sunday. 

Notre Dame is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off three straight wins and four straight covers.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Irish as those three wins all came at home against some of the worst teams in the ACC in Wake, Georgia Tech and Pitt. 

The Fighting Irish are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS win.  The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Clemson Sunday. 

15* Wichita State/Houston ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Wichita State +5 

I love the spot for the Wichita State Shockers Sunday.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on a Shockers team coming off two straight losses and one that is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Wichita State wants revenge from a 54-65 home loss to Houston in which they shot just 30.4% from the floor.  I have no doubt the Shockers will want this game more due to the revenge factor and coming off two straight losses by a combined 4 points. 

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on Houston, which has made backers a lot of money over the last month or so.  The Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I faded them with success last time out on Tulane +16.5, and I’ll fade them again Sunday. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Wichita State) - off a conference loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that failed to cover but win SU as a favorite in their last game are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Shockers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.  Wichita State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 Sunday games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Wichita State Sunday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Illinois -3 

Southern Illinois comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Salukis are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall and a real contender to win the Missouri Valley Conference. 

No team has a bigger home-court advantage in the conference than the Salukis this season.  They are 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS at home and holding opponents to just 56.0 points per game and 38.5% shooting. 

Missouri State is just 3-9 in all games played away from home this season.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming at home against lowly Illinois State.  They are just 5-17 SU in their last 22 trips to Southern Illinois. 

Southern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Salukis are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida Atlantic -2.5 

I love the spot for Florida Atlantic today.  The Owls face a home-and-home situation with rival Florida International here.  They lost 50-69 on Wednesday at FIU as 3-point dogs.  And now they’ll be out for revenge just three days later here and I expect them to get their payback at home this time around. 

Both of these teams have huge home-court advantages.  Florida Atlantic is 12-1 at home this season with its only loss coming by 3 points to UAB.  FIU Is 11-1 at home this year but just 5-7 in all road games.  The Golden Panthers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with all four losses coming by 14 points or more. 

Florida Atlantic is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games off an ATS loss.  Florida Atlantic is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis +13.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from a 76-78 (OT) home loss to Dayton on January 17th.  They get their shot at revenge now catching a whopping 13.5 points on the road in the rematch. This is simply too many points tonight. 

I think the Billikens come in undervalued off their loss to Duquesne on Wednesday as 4.5-point home favorites.  It’s pretty easy to see they were overlooking to Duquesne and looking ahead to this showdown with Dayton.  And it’s worth noting that Duquesne is one of the best teams in the conference and also only lost to Dayton by 4. 

Simply put, it’s time to ’sell high’ on Dayton.  We’re starting to see the Flyers overvalued due to being a Top 10 team and winning 11 straight coming in.  But they failed to cover their last two games winning by just 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites and by 14 at home over a bad Fordham team as 24-point favorites. 

Dayton is 2-10 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Billikens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens will rise to the occasion and give the Flyers a run for their money.  Take Saint Louis Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana -2 

I love the spot for the Indiana Hoosiers today.  They are highly motivated for a win following three straight losses.  And they have had a full week off having last played Saturday, so they are fresh and ready to go. 

The three losses are easily explainable as two of them came on the road to Penn State and Ohio State and the other they blew a 6-point lead in the final minute to fall 76-77 to Maryland, which owns the best record in the Big Ten. 

Indiana is 12-2 at home this season.  They host a Purdue team that is just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season with its only wins coming at Ohio and at Northwestern by 3.  They lost at Marquette by 10, at Nebraska by 14, at Illinois by 26, at Michigan by 6, at Maryland by 7 and and Rutgers by 7. 

Purdue is 0-6 ATS in conference road games this season.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Boilermakers are 2-11 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons.  Purdue only has two days to get ready for the Hoosiers after beating Iowa at home Wednesday.  Bet Indiana Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M +8 

Buzz Williams has the Texas A&M Aggies improving rapidly in his first season on the job.  What has been most impressive is how well the Aggies have played on the road in conference play. 

Indeed, the Aggies are 4-1 ATS in SEC road games this season.  They beat Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point dogs, upset Missouri as 10-point dogs and upset Tennessee as 9.5-point dogs.  They can certainly hang with South Carolina Saturday. 

The Gamecocks only have two days to get ready for Texas A&M after losing 70-84 at Ole Miss on Wednesday.  The Aggies last played on Tuesday and get an extra day of prep for this contest.  I think it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Gamecocks, who have covered six of their last eight coming in.

Texas A&M is also out for revenge from a 67-81 home loss to South Carolina on January 18th just a few weeks ago.  Well, it was the best shooting game of the season for the Gamecocks as they went 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range, while Texas A&M was just 3-of-14 (21.4%).  It was a complete aberration as the Gamecocks average just 6 made 3’s per game this season and shoot it at a 31.3% clip.  It’s not going to happen again.

South Carolina is 4-15 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a dog overall.  The Gamecocks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Maryland/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -2 

The Illinois Fighting Illini want revenge from a tough 58-59 loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season.  I think we are getting Illinois at a tremendous value as only 2-point favorites at home in the rematch. 

Illinois has been the best team in the Big Ten over the last month.  The Fighting Illini are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Iowa last time out after they blew a big lead in the first half.  The Fighting Illini are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 18.7 points per game. 

Illinois also has the rest advantage as they come in on four days’ rest after last playing on Sunday while Maryland is on just two days’ rest after playing on Tuesday.  And I have no doubt the Terrapins come in overvalued after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS I their last five games overall coming in. 

Maryland is just 2-4 SU in its last six true road games with its only wins coming at lowly Northwestern and at Indiana by 1 after they erased a 6-point deficit in the final minute.  They won’t be so fortunate tonight against arguably the best team in the Big Ten in Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Illinois Friday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulane +16.5 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Tulane Green Wave.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and are now catching a whopping 16.5 points at Houston because of it.  They have dropped below .500 for the first time this season and will be highly motivated tonight. 

Houston is coming off a tough 62-64 road loss at Cincinnati, which is one of their biggest challengers to win the AAC this season.  It’s the type of loss that will be hard to get over, and the Cougars may not be 100% focused tonight, especially playing a team that has lost five straight coming in like Tulane. 

The Cougars will be without one of their best players in Dejon Jarreau (9.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG), who does a little bit of everything for this team.  He has been suspended for biting a Cincinnati player.  Quentin Grimes (12.0 PPG) is battling a hip injury, though he is expected to play tonight. 

Tulane is 14-4 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Tulane is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS after making 78% of their free throws or better this season.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Tulane Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota -3 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three of their last four coming in against a brutal schedule as they were a dog in all four games and actually did well to win one. 

They lost on the road to Rutgers and Illinois as well as a home to Michigan State.  But they pulled the upset at Ohio State.  Now they are back home here where they are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  That includes are 4-1 home record with wins over Ohio State by 13, Northwestern by 9, Michigan by 8 and Penn State by 6. 

Wisconsin is in an obvious letdown spot off its 64-63 upset home win over Michigan State on Saturday.  The Badgers are 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue and by 6 at Iowa. 

Minnesota is 14-5 ATS in home games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 12-3 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  Minnesota is 8-0 ATS off a road loss where it scored 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Gophers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Badgers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.  Take Minnesota Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -2 

The Providence Friars want revenge from a tough 74-78 road loss at Creighton as 6-point underdogs on January 18th.  Now they get their shot at revenge just over two weeks later at home this time around in a game they basically just have to win to cover. 

Providence has lost three of its last four but was competitive in all three losses.  They only lost by 4 at Creighton, by 9 at Seton Hall and by 4 at home to Villanova.  But they pulled the upset at Butler last time out as 6.5-point dogs, so they are battle-tested. 

Creighton is in a huge letdown spot off its shocking 76-61 win at Villanova as 6.5-point dogs.  The Bluejays wanted revenge from blowing a double-digit lead at Villanova earlier this season.  Now I think they relax here off four straight wins and Providence simply wants this game more. 

Providence is 8-3 SU at home this season.  Creighton is 1-10 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet Providence Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +9.5 

The Florida Gators have been consistently overvalued, especially here of late.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Baylor by 11 and Mississippi State by 7 while also narrowly beating lowly Vanderbilt by 6 as 11.5-point road favorites last time out. 

Georgia has gone a solid 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Bulldogs just handled Texas A&M 63-48 at home as 6.5-point favorites and now hit the road to take on a Florida team that they have had no problem beating in Gainesville in recent years. 

Indeed, Georgia is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Florida.  That includes a 61-55 win as 11-point dogs and a 72-69 (OT) win as 10-point dogs in their last two trips to Gainesville.  And now they are catching 9.5 points again this year.  Asking Florida to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. 

Florida is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Gators are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Georgia Wednesday. 

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Saint Louis -4.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from one of its worst losses of the season.  The Billikens fell 59-73 at Duquesne as 2.5-point dogs on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  Now the Billikens get the Dukes at home this time around. 

Saint Louis is 11-2 at home this season with one of its losses coming to one of the best teams in the country in Dayton by 2 in overtime.  The Billikens are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Duquesne.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  They will protect their home court tonight and get revenge in blowout fashion. 

The Dukes have really fallen off since that win over Saint Louis.  They are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their three wins coming in narrow fashion against three of the worst teams in the Atlantic 10.  They beat George Washington by 5, Fordham by 2 as an 18-point home favorite and La Salle by 2 as a 9.5-point home favorite.  They also lost by 22 at Rhode Island and by 9 at Umass as a 5.5-point favorite. 

Saint Louis is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games off two straight road games.  The Dukes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Duquesne is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Saint Louis Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -3.5 

Fading Evansville has been an absolute ATM machine and it will continue to be tonight.  This is an Evansville team with a lot of turmoil with head coach Walter McCarty stepping down mid-season.  And their best player in Deandre Williams (16.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been out since January 4th with a back injury. 

Evansville has gone 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS in Missouri Valley play this season.  Seven of those 10 losses have come by double-digits as they’ve rarely even been competitive.  They don’t stand much of a chance of even being competitive tonight either. 

Southern Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the MVC right now.  The Salukis are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in all five games.  They upset Drake and Illinois State on the road, as well as Drake, Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago at home.  They aren’t about to fall to Evansville tonight after winning all those games against the best teams in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 9-1 ATS when playing against a bad team (20% to 40%) over the last three seasons.  Evansville is 0-8 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Salukis are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  The Salukis are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Purple Aces are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Evansville is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 Wednesday games.  These six trends combine for a 44-1 system backing the Salukis tonight.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* Villanova/Butler FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Butler -2 

Butler wants revenge from a 61-76 road loss at Villanova in their first meeting on January 21st.  They also want to bounce back from an upset home loss to Providence.  It’s safe to say the Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight for both reasons and we’ll get their ‘A’ effort. 

Butler is 10-2 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.  They face a Villanova team that is overvalued right now after winning seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Wildcats just lost at home 61-76 to Creighton as 6.5-point dogs, so they are far from invincible. 

Villanova is 2-8 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season.  Butler is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games off a conference loss as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Wildcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a double-digit home loss.  Villanova is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Butler Wednesday. 

15* Mississippi State/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -6.5 

The Kentucky Wildcats return home highly motivated for a victory off a loss at Auburn over the weekend.  They have responded very well after their last two losses, beating Louisville 78-70 as 1.5-point favorites and winning at Arkansas 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs.  The Wildcats are 12-1 at home this season. 

Now the Wildcats host a Mississippi State team that is starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them here as this will be their toughest test of the entire season tonight.  The Bulldogs have just two wins in true road games this year. 

Kentucky owns Mississippi State, going 13-0 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Wildcats are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings while winning those five games by an average of 18.0 points per game.  The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan -2 

After dropping four straight, the Michigan Wolverines have bounced back nicely with road wins and covers over Nebraska and Rutgers.  Look for them to continue their recent surge with an easy home win over the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight. 

This is an Ohio State team that has been grossly overvalued in Big Ten play and continues to be tonight.  The Buckeyes are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall despite being favored in eight of those nine contests.   

Their only wins came at home against Nebraska and Indiana and on the road at Northwestern, the worst team in the Big Ten.  They lost by 14 at Penn State, by 12 at Indiana and by 12 at Maryland in their other three true road games during this stretch. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Take Michigan Tuesday. 

15* Baylor/K-State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State +7.5 

No question oddsmakers have had a tough time setting lines for Baylor because they keep covering.  The Bears have opened 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in Big 12 play as backers continue to get rewarded for betting the No. 1 ranked team in the country. 

But with all that point spread success and No. 1 ranking eventually comes expectations that they cannot live up to.  And I think the Bears are finally overvalued here as 7.5-point road favorites at Kansas State.  This is a game I could see them losing outright. 

While we’ll ‘sell high’ on Baylor, we’ll ‘buy low’ on a Kansas State team that is much better than its 9-12 record would indicate.  Eight of those 12 losses have come by single-digits, so the Wildcats have been hard up on their luck in close games.  KenPom has the Wildcats 343rd out of 353 teams in the luck factor this season. 

Kansas State has been through the gauntlet lately and is battle-tested because of it.  The Wildcats are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  Their only blowout loss came at Kansas.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama and by 9 at WVU.  They upset WVU by 16 as 7-point dogs and handled Oklahoma by 8 as 2-point favorites in their only two home games during this stretch.  The Wildcats are 8-3 at home this season. 

Kansas State owns Baylor, going 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Baylor is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Take Kansas State Monday. 

20* Texas/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas +14.5 

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from a 66-57 home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks on January 18th just two weeks ago.  They led The Jayhawks 31-26 at halftime before getting outscored by 14 points after intermission.  They will be highly motivated for revenge because of it. 

You’re really paying a tax to back the Jayhawks because they are ranked No. 3 in the country right now.  And that is especially the case when they play at home.  The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, beating Texas Tech by 3 as 8.5-point favorites, Tennessee by 6 as 13-point favorites, WVU by 7 as 10-point favorites and losing outright to Baylor by 12 as 7.5-point favorites. 

Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Kansas not once losing by more than 12 points in those five games.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Texas Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle +9.5

This is a great spot to fade the Duquesne Dukes.  They just lost a heartbreaker to a Top 10 opponent in Dayton by a final of 69-73 as 8-point home underdogs.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat in time to face La Salle this afternoon.

It has been a string of poor performances for the Dukes outside that effort against Dayton.  Duquesne is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The two wins came against lowly George Washington (by 5) as an 8-point road favorites and Fordham (by 2) as an 18-point home favorite.  They also lost by 9 at UMass as 5.5-point favorites and were crushed by 22 at Rhode Island. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on La Salle, which has lost six straight coming in.  But they were competitive in almost every loss and only lost by 3 at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and by 1 to St. Louis as 3.5-point home dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10, so they have proven the can play with teams like Duquesne. 

Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less.  The Explorers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  La Salle is 6-0 ATS after playing three straight games as an underdog this season.  Duquesne is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with La Salle Sunday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago -5 

I love the spot for Loyola-Chicago Saturday.  They are coming off two straight road losses at Northern Iowa (OT) and at Southern Illinois, which have been two of the best home teams in the Missouri Valley. 

Now the Ramblers return home highly motivated for a win Saturday.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with its last three wins all coming by 16 points or more over Indiana State by 20, Southern Illinois by 16 and Evansville by 34. 

The Ramblers also want revenge from a 51-53 loss to Bradley in the MVC Tournament last year.  Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Bradley with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington State +9 

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been a very tough out at home this season and should not be catching 9 points against Arizona given the spot. 

Arizona comes in on one days’ rest after an overtime win at Washington on Thursday.  Washington has had two days’ rest since its home win over Arizona State on Wednesday.  That is a big advantage for the Cougars in this one. 

Washington State is 10-2 SU at home this season.  The Cougars are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four Pac-12 home games despite being an underdog in all four.  They upset UCLA 79-71 as 2-point dogs, upset Oregon 72-61 as 9-point dogs, upset Oregon State 89-76 as 3.5-point dogs and upset Arizona State 67-65 as 2-point dogs. 

Oddsmakers continue to give the Cougars no respect at home tonight, and we’ll gladly take advantage.  The Wildcats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  They don’t deserve this kind of respect.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Take Washington State Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +8.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska off six straight losses.  But the Huskers are rapidly improving under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg despite the losses.  They have been a lot more competitive since they’ve jumped into Big Ten play. 

Indeed, the Huskers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes upset home wins over Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs and Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Indiana to OT on the road, and covered in road losses to NW, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Rutgers.  They just aren’t getting blown out. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Penn State after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with huge wins over Ohio State and Indiana at home as well as struggling Michigan on the road.  This is a clear letdown and lookahead spot now with Michigan State on deck Tuesday. 

Nebraska comes in on three days’ rest while Penn State comes in on just two days’ rest.  The Nittany Lions are 1-3-2 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  The Huskers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +2 

Oregon’s luck will run out today at Stanford.  The Ducks have won four straight with two of those in OT and also a 5-point win at lowly Cal.  Now they face a pissed off Stanford team that will beat them outright. 

The Cardinal are highly motivated for a victory after dropping three straight coming in.  They are back home here where they are 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  One of those losses was to Kansas while the other was an upset loss to Oregon State last time out.  I just can’t see them dropping two straight at home here. 

The home team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The only exception was a 2-point win by Oregon as 7-point favorites.  Stanford has pulled the upset in two of their last three home meetings with Oregon.  And this is the best team the Cardinal have had in a long time. 

The Cardinal are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games.  Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Cardinal are 49-24 ATS in their last 73 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -2.5 

The Texas Longhorns are 8-3 at home this season while the Iowa State Cyclones are just 1-7 in all road games.  It’s a pretty easy choice here with the Longhorns laying just 2.5 points at home Saturday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Texas is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Iowa State. 

The Cyclones are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Iowa State is coming off two straight deflating losses against Top 25 teams in Auburn and Baylor and won’t be able to get up for the Longhorns.  Bet Texas Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +11 

Ole Miss is starting to play up to its potential finally.  In their last two games they went on the road and upset Georgia 70-60 as 7-point underdogs and took Auburn to overtime in an 82-83 loss as 5.5-point dogs.  They can certainly hang with LSU Saturday. 

The Tigers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 9-0 SU in their last nine games overall.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, too.  Six of their last seven wins have remarkably come by 4 points or fewer. 

The Tigers have a rest disadvantage.  They come in on two days’ rest after playing Alabama on Wednesday while Ole Miss comes in on three days’ rest after facing Auburn on Tuesday.  That extra day of prep will be huge for the Rebels. 

Ole Miss also wants revenge from a 76-80 home loss to LSU on January 18th about exactly two weeks ago.  The Rebels are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.  The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton +7 

Creighton wants revenge from a 59-64 home loss to Villanova on January 7th.  The Bluejays blew a double-digit lead in that game.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull the upset today and get their revenge. 

The Bluejays have proven they can compete on the road this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games.  They pulled road upsets over Arizona State, Xavier and DePaul and only lost by 3 at Georgetown during this stretch. 

Creighton has the rest and preparation edge as they come in on five days’ rest after playing on Sunday while Villanova is only on three days’ rest after playing on Tuesday.  That advantage plus the revenge factor makes Creighton worth a bet as 7-point dogs here. 

The Bluejays are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Creighton is 6-2 ATS in its last eight Saturday games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  After being a 2-point favorite in the first meeting, the Bluejays are now 7-point dogs in the rematch, a 9-point adjustment that is too much.  Bet Creighton Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +6.5 

Georgia Tech wants revenge from a 74-78 home loss as 1.5-point home favorites over Notre Dame on January 15th about two weeks ago.  The Yellow Jackets blew a late lead in that game and haven’t forgotten. 

I like the rest advantage here for the Yellow Jackets.  They got a freebie against Morehouse on Tuesday in an 82-54 win.  So that was like a practice game for them.  Notre Dame just played on Wednesday and only has two days’ rest to get ready for Georgia Tech. 

This is a big number for Notre Dame to be laying.  They have just one win in ACC play by more than 4 points, which was against Wake Forest at home.  Six of their last seven games have been decided by 5 points or less as well. 

The Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Georgia Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games overall.  The Fighting Irish are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.  Notre Dame is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday. 

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida International -2 

Florida International is a perfect 9-0 at home this season and winning by 16.5 points per game.  I’ll gladly back them as only 2-point home favorites over Marshall tonight in this Conference USA showdown. 

Marshall is just 2-6 SU in true road games this season with its only wins coming against poor Middle Tennessee and Morehead State teams.  They lost by 11 at UAB and by 7 at Western Kentucky in their two most recent road games. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Thundering Herd are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Golden Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Florida International Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Tech -2 

This feels like a great spot to back the Texas Tech Red Raiders at home.  They are coming off two straight losses to TCU and Kentucky.  The OT loss to Kentucky snapped a 54-game home winning streak in non-conference play. 

Now the Red Raiders welcome 12th-ranked West Virginia.  Texas Tech is 9-2 at home this season, while the Mountaineers are 3-3 in true road games.  That includes a 16-point loss at Kansas State in their last road games, and we’ve seen K-State struggle to win any games lately. 

Texas Tech will also be out for revenge from a 12-point loss at West Virginia in their first meeting on January 11th just over two weeks ago.  WVU had a 35-to-7 edge in free throw attempts, which was the difference in that game.  That FT discrepancy won’t be nearly as lopsided in the rematch in Lubbock this time around.  And Tech has the size inside to match up with the Mountaineers better than most teams. 

The Red Raiders are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Texas Tech Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -1 

The Kansas State Wildcats have been one of the most unlucky teams in all of college basketball.  They rank 344th out of 353 teams in KenPom’s luck factor, which basically tells you how lucky a team has been to have the record that they have. 

I have no doubt that Kansas State is much better than its 8-11 record would indicate.  Seven of those 11 losses have come by single-digits, including their tough 74-77 loss at Alabama as 9-point dogs over the weekend. 

One of those close losses was a 61-66 setback at Oklahoma as 7-point dogs on January 4th in their first meeting this season.  That places the Wildcats in revenge mode tonight. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings, and the Wildcats just have to win to cover. 

Oklahoma is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Oklahoma has just two true road wins all season over North Texas (by 2) and Texas.  Bet Kansas State Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +5.5 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the LSU Tigers off eight straight wins.  Remarkably, each of LSU’s last six wins have all come by 4 points or less.  They are simply getting lucky in close games and have a better record than they deserve to have at this point. 

Alabama just can’t seem to get any respect from oddsmakers.  The Crimson Tide are 10-3 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their only losses during this stretch came by 7 at Kentucky, by 6 at Florida in OT and by 2 at Penn State.  They haven’t been blown out since November. 

Alabama is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with LSU.  The Crimson Tide have only lost one of those eight games by more than 5 points.  SO I think there’s a lot of value on the Crimson Tide catching 5.5 points in a game they can win outright. 

LSU is just 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or less this season.  The Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Alabama Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State -3.5 

Both Drake and Indiana State are unbeaten at home this season.  Drake is 11-0 at home with one of its closest games coming against Indiana State in a 4-point win over the Sycamores on January 4th.  That places the Sycamores in revenge mode at home this time around. 

Indiana State is 8-0 at home this season.  They have been tremendous on defense at home, giving up just 56.8 points per game and outscoring their opponents by 12.4 points per game.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home in MVC play and winning by 14.0 points per game with all four wins coming by 8 points or more. 

Drake is just 2-5 SU in true road games.  The two wins were against two very bad teams in Evansville and Air Force.  Drake’s five road losses have come by an average of 16.6 points per game. 

Indiana State is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or less this season.  Drake is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Sycamores are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -2.5 

The Air Force Falcons are the better team here and should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Fresno State.  The Falcons were 9-9 but dropped three straight coming in.  Look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder tonight to get back in the win column. 

Fresno State is just 6-14 on the season, including 2-9 in all road games.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall with their only two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Wyoming.  Each of their last five losses have come by 9 points or more. 

That includes Fresno State’s 53-87 home loss to Boise State over the weekend.  Nate Grimes started serving his suspension in that game for conduct detrimental to the team.  He had 23 points against Colorado State the game prior, and he averages 12.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.  He is their best player and his loss to suspension is huge. 

Air Force is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Fresno State.  The Falcons are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Air Force Tuesday. 

15* Florida/Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +2 

I love the spot for the Virginia Cavaliers tonight.  It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on a Cavaliers team that has been a money burner for backs this season, going 13-6 SU but 5-14 ATS on the year.  Now they find themselves as home underdogs for the first time all season. 

Virginia wants revenge from a 50-54 road loss at Florida State on January 15th less than two weeks ago.  I have no doubt they’ll be the more motivated team as a result, and I look for them to have their revenge on the Seminoles. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Florida State, which is 17-2 and has won 10 straight coming in.  But the Seminoles were fortunate to escape with an 83-79 (OT) win at Miami as 6-point favorites and an 85-84 home win over Notre Dame as 9-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

The Seminoles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Florida State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Virginia is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.  Bet Virginia Tuesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +11 

The Texas A&M Aggies have some impressive road results here of late that has me attracted to them as double-digit road underdogs at Tennessee.  This is too many points tonight folks. 

Texas A&M Is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three road games.  The Aggies only lost by 10 at Arkansas as 14.5-point dogs.  They upset Vanderbilt 69-50 as 3.5-point road dogs.  And they pulled the 66-64 upset at Missouri as 10-point dogs. 

Tennessee is in a bad spot tonight.  The Vols just played 3rd-ranked Kansas on the road over the weekend and took them to the wire in a 68-74 defeat as 13-point dogs.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face Texas A&M at home tonight. 

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  Texas A&M is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Vols are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Kansas/Oklahoma State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State +7 

Bill Self admitted that his team was tired from the aftermath of the suspension following the fight with Kansas State.  The Jayhawks only beat Tennessee 74-68 as 13-point home favorites on Saturday. 

Now, the Jayhawks have to still be tired playing their 2nd game in 3 days here.  They miss the depth provided by starter David McCormack and reserve Silvio De Sousa.  The Jayhawks now have to use a five-guard lineup when Udoka Azubuike goes out, which makes them susceptible underneath on both ends. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys are 0-6 in Big 12 play, but they have been much more competitive in their last three games.  They led most the way against top-ranked Baylor before falling 68-75 at home.  They hung tough with Iowa State in an 82-89 road loss.  And their 73-62 win at Texas A&M over the weekend provides them with the confidence they need to try and take down Kansas tonight. 

Oklahoma State has played Kansas very tough at home recently.  The Cowboys are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Kansas.  Their two losses both came by exactly 5 points, so they haven’t lost any of the five by this 7-point spread.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Oklahoma State Monday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -5 

The Drake Bulldogs are a real contender to win the Missouri Valley this season.  They are 14-6 this year and have been one of the best covering teams in all of college basketball over the last few seasons. 

A big reason for Drake’s success is that they defend their home court.  Indeed, the Bulldogs are 10-0 at home this season and winning by 15.3 points per game.  They are 3-0 at home in MVC play with wins over Loyola-Chicago, Indiana State and Illinois State. 

Missouri State is just 2-5 in true road games with its only wins at Evansville and Illinois State, two of the worst teams in the MVC.  Drake is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Missouri State.  The Bulldogs won both meetings by double-digits last year. 

Drake is 36-13-2 ATS in its last 51 home games.  The Bulldogs are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Drake is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 18-8 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with Drake Sunday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2 

The Indiana Hoosiers want revenge from a 59-75 loss at Maryland on January 4th in their first meeting.  Considering how well the Hoosiers have played at home this season, they should have their revenge this afternoon. 

Indeed, Indiana is 12-1 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.  They just upset Michigan State as 4-point home underdogs and also crushed Ohio State by 12 and Florida State by 16 at home. 

Maryland is just 1-4 SU in true road games with its only win coming at Northwestern, which is the worst team in the Big Ten.  The Terrapins lost at Wisconsin (by 2), Iowa (by 18), Seton Hall (by 4) and Penn State (by 7). 

The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings, so home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  And the Hoosiers basically just have to win to cover at home today.  The Terrapins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.  Take Indiana Sunday. 

15* Washington/Colorado FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +8 

The Washington Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are much better than their 12-8 record would indicate, but they have just been unfortunate in close games this year.  And I expect this game against Colorado to come down to the wire, so getting 8 points is a great value. 

Indeed, Washington is 12-8 with seven of their losses coming by 7 points or fewer.  So they have only been beaten by more than this spread one time in 20 games this season.  KenPom has a luck factor for teams that shows how lucky are unlucky they are to have the record they have.  Well, Washington is 347th out of 353 teams in the luck category.  This is more like a 15-5 team rather than a 12-8 team. 

Colorado is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 15-4 record and No. 23 national ranking.  But this is a Colorado team that is fortunate to have that record as they are 66th in the luck department.  And they have been upset by both Oregon State and Northern Iowa at home this year, so they are far from invincible at home. 

Colorado’s best player in Tyler Bey is questionable with a hand injury after sitting out last game against Washington State.  Bey averages 13.1 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 9.3 RPG while also leading the team in 3-point percentage (47.1%).  Chances are he plays but he’s far from 100% with a hand injury. 

Washington owns Colorado, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  That includes two upset wins as road underdogs winning 77-70 as 2.5-point dogs and 72-62 as 5-point dogs in its last two trips to Boulder.  Expect more of the same as the Buffaloes struggle with the size and defensive prowess of the Huskies, who give up just 62.7 PPG and 36.9% shooting this season.  Roll with Washington Saturday. 

20* Baylor/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida -2 

This is one of those rare situations where the unranked team in Florida is favored over the ranked team in Baylor.  And it’s not just any ranked team, it’s the No. 1 Baylor Bears.  And I fully agree with Florida being the favorite here. 

You can bet it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere for the Gators at home Saturday night with the No. 1 team coming to town.  And the Gators have defended their home court to near-perfection.  They are 7-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Florida State, which is the No. 5 ranked team in the country.  They just beat 16th-ranked Auburn by 22 in their last home game. 

I don’t believe Baylor is the best team in the country.  That ranking clearly went to their head when they were nearly upset by Oklahoma on Monday in a 61-57 win as 11-point home favorites.  They also barely won their previous game against lowly Oklahoma State as they trailed the entire way until the final minutes.  That’s an Oklahoma State team that is 0-6 in Big 12 play. 

Baylor usually has a big rebounding edge against most opponents, but that won’t be the case against Florida.  The Bears average 6 more boards per game than their opponents while the Gators average 5 more boards per game than their foes.  And it’s worth noting Florida (22nd) has played the tougher schedule than Baylor (47th).  The Gators are battle-tested and ready to take down the top-ranked team in the country.  Take Florida Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane -1.5 

The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Head coach Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State in turning around those two programs.  And he’s doing the same in his first season at Tulane thanks to transfers. 

This is a Tulane team that has made me a lot of money this season.  They covered 4 straight recently to open AAC play.  They covered in narrow road losses to Memphis and UConn, while also upsetting Cincinnati as an 8-point home dog and Temple by 16 as a 9-point road dog. 

I think that stretch took its toll on Tulane because the Green Wave have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost at home to UCF and Tulsa.  But now they’ve had a full week to recover as they last play on Saturday, coming in on six days’ rest.  Expect one of their best efforts of the season to try and bounce back from those two losses. 

East Carolina is at a huge scheduling disadvantage.  The Pirates only come in on two days’ rest after losing 64-84 at SMU on Wednesday.  That followed up a 25-point loss at Cincinnati and a 16-point home loss to Tulsa.  Tulane is power rated about 8 points better than ECU according to KenPom, and when you factor in the favorable scheduling spot the Green Wave should be more than 1.5-point favorites here. 

ECU is 2-14 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 1-9 ATS after playing five consecutive games as an underdog over the last two seasons.  ECU is 2-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 0-7 ATS vs. excellent ball-handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.   

The Green Wave are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Tulane is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take Tulane Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State -2.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Oregon State Beavers, who have lost three in a row both SU & ATS coming in.  That has them highly motivated for a win tonight as they host the USC Trojans. 

USC is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Oregon in overtime.  I think that’s the kind of loss that beats them twice here.  Especially since the Trojans only have one day to recover from that contest on Thursday plus have the travel.  Oregon State gets to stay at home after facing UCLA Thursday and will be the much fresher, more prepared team. 

The Beavers are 8-2 at home this season.  They won both meetings with USC last year and should be able to handle this USC team that lost by 32 at Washington and by 9 at Oregon in two of its recent road games. 

Oregon State is 13-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Beavers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off an ATS loss.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Oregon State Saturday. 

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State -2.5 

The Indiana State Sycamores are highly motivated for a win off two straight road losses to Valparaiso and Loyola-Chicago.  And now they will certainly get up for defending MVC champ Bradley today.  I believe the Sycamores are favored for good reason. 

Indiana State is 7-0 at home this season.  That includes a 3-0 home record in conference play with all three wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 16.0 points per game.  The Sycamores are one of the most underrated teams in the MVC this season as they’re a veteran squad that returned four starters. 

Bradley comes in overvalued after winning four of their last five and going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.  But they could be without their top two scorers Saturday.  Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG) is for sure out, while Darrell Brown (14.2 PPG) is questionable with a quad injury after sitting out last game. 

Bradley is just 2-4 SU in true road games this season.  They lost to a very bad St. Joe’s team as 5-point road favorites, lost by 15 at Memphis, lost by 16 at Miami Ohio as 2-point favorites and also lost at Northern Iowa.  Their only two road wins came against poor Missouri State and Evansville teams. 

Indiana State has won five of its last seven meetings with Bradley.  The Sycamores are 17-5 SU in their last 22 home meetings with Bradley.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Indiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet Indiana State Saturday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13 

I love fading the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in this spot.  They just got ranked this week for the first time since the 1978-79 season.  And they are now getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to that Top 25 ranking. 

I know Rutgers is 13-0 at home this season, but that is being factored into the line way too much.  Also this is an overreaction from Rutgers beating Nebraska 79-62 on the road on January 3rd in their first meeting this season. 

I’ll gladly side with the revenge-minded Huskers, who are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Huskers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs and Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs.  They just aren’t getting blown out as they have only been beaten by more than 14 points once in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska is 10-2 ATS in January road games over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 13-4 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Rutgers is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more.  The Scarlet Knights have just two days to prepare while the Huskers have three days to get ready after playing on Tuesday.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -3.5 

The Michigan Wolverines are showing great value as a short home favorite Saturday over Illinois.  We are getting the Wolverines at a discount because they have lost three straight coming in both SU and ATS.  That has them highly motivated for a win here Saturday. 

Adding to the motivation is the fact that Michigan wants revenge from a 62-71 loss at Illinois in their first meeting this season.  Well, home-court advantage has been huge for the Wolverines in this series as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Fighting Illini.  The home team is 27-11-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings.  And Michigan has faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire country this year so they are battle-tested. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Illini, who have won five straight coming in.  But three of those wins were by 4 points or fewer, including narrow home wins over Rutgers (by 3) and Northwestern (by 4).  And Illinois just lost its first player off the bench in Alan Griffin (8.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to a two-game suspension.  Griffin also leads the team in 3-point percentage (39.4%) and FT percentage (89.5%). 

Michigan is 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 15-4 ATS off a loss over the last three years.  Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Fighting Illini are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Michigan Saturday. 

20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -4 

The Purdue Boilermakers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They are coming off a rare home loss to Illinois and have dropped four of their last five overall with the other three losses coming on the road.  Look for them to get back in the win column with a blowout victory over Wisconsin Friday. 

Purdue is now 15-1 SU in its last 16 Big Ten home games to show you how rare that loss to Illinois really was.  The Boilermakers are 8-2 at home this season with impressive wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29. 

Wisconsin has gone 3-3 in true road games with blowout losses to NC State by 15 and Michigan State by 12, as well as a loss at Rutgers by 7.  Purdue has gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Wisconsin. 

The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons.  The Boilermakers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games off a loss.  Purdue is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Purdue Friday.