20* CBB Mid-Major GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 9-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77) and Denver (65-55).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country.  It gives up just 55.2 points per game on 39.0% shooting.  It only turns the ball over 12 times per game, which is huge because VCU loves to press.  UNI's guards will be able to handle that press in this one.

It's clear that VCU is not the same team that it was a year ago.  It is clearly down this year at 5-3 while going 2-5 ATS.  It has some really bad losses along the way.  It lost to Villanova 53-77 on a neutral court, Old Dominion 67-73 on the road, and Virginia 57-74 at home.  It is simply overvalued due to what it has done in the NCAA Tournament in the past.  This may not be a tournament team in 2014-15.

Last year, Northern Iowa had a worse team than VCU but won 77-68 at home despite being a 5-point underdog.  It shot 53.1% from the field and held the Rams to just 36.9% shooting.  It did turn the ball over 16 times, but that's not a bad number against this VCU defense.  Also, with all five starters back, the Panthers know what to expect from the Rams.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (N IOWA) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 66-31 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 29-12 ATS in road games off four or more consecutive wins.  VCU is 1-9 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3.5

Yes, this game between Kansas and Utah is being played on a neutral court.  However, it won't be neutral at all as it will be played inside the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO.  It will certainly be a pro-Kansas crowd to say the least, and these players are used to this venue considering it's where the Big 12 Tournament is played.

I really like what I've seen from this Kansas team since an ugly loss to Kentucky back on November 18th.  It has gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall as this young team has grown up on a hurry.  All six wins came by 5 points or more, including road wins over Michigan State (61-56), Rhode Island (76-60) and Georgetown (75-70), as well as a home win over Florida (71-65).

Utah is definitely a team to keep your eye on in terms of making the NCAA Tournament with four starters back this year.  It is off to a 7-1 start, but it has done most of its damage at home.  It is just 1-1 on the road with a loss at San Diego State and a win over BYU.  It is being overvalued right now because it also beat Wichita State (69-68) by a single point at home.

The Utes only currently have three starters back because their second-leading scorer in Jordan Loveridge (11.5 ppg) is out for a month with a knee injury.  His scoring is going to be hard to replace because he helps the offense space the floor so well as he shoots 50.0% from 3-point range.  Without Loveridge, the Utes stand no chance of keeping this 'road' game close against Kansas.

Utah is 22-51 ATS in its last 73 road games off two straight games where it had five or fewer steals.  The Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 foes.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  These last three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* CBB In-State Rivalry Play on Colorado -5.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It has picked up right where it left off at home, going a perfect 5-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game.  All five of its home wins have come by at least 9 points, including wins over Auburn (90-59), Drexel (65-48), Air Force (68-53) and San Francisco (72-55).

The Buffaloes have gotten great production from all four of their returning starters.  Jeff Scott (16.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.0 bpg) is a future NBA talent.  Askia Booker (12.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.9 apg), Xavier Johnson (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (6.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg) are the other three returning starters who have played well.

Colorado State is one of the most overrated teams in the country at this point in the season due to its 8-0 start to 2014-15.  Well, that 8-0 start has comea gainst an extremely soft schedule.  Its eight wins have come against Montana, Georgia State, Mercer, Missouri State, Pacific, UC-Santa Barbara, UTEP and Northern Colorado.

This will be the first true road game of the season for the Rams, which is a spot where teams usually tend to struggle.  Remember, this is a team that went just 16-16 last year, and I don't believe they are that much better with three starters back from that team.

Colorado is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Colorado State.  It has won 70-61, 90-83 and 75-56 in its last three home meetings, respectively, as all three have come by 7 points or more.

Colorado State is 2-12 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 3-12-1 ATS int heir last 16 non-conference games.  Colorado State is 5-21-2 ATS in its last 28 games following a win.  The Buffaloes are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Colorado State is 5-16 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Take Colorado Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 8-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as a road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and defense travels with you.  It is giving up just 55.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting.  It is scoring a mediocre 67.7 points per game, but has been efficient in making 46.1% of its shots.

Denver is improved as well off a 16-15 campaign last year with four returning starters this year.  However, it is just 4-3 to start the season with its four wins coming against Idaho State, Coppin State, New Orleans and Texas A&M Corpus Christi. 

The Pioneers have been blown out against the three best opponents they have played in St. Mary's (62-78), Belmont (57-78) and Wyoming (42-68).  If they can't hang with those teams, they stand little chance of keeping this game close against the Panthers tonight.

Northern Iowa is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 road games following four or more consecutive wins.  Denver is 6-17 ATS off a non-conference game over the last three years.  Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Pioneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* Louisville/Indiana ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +12

The No. 4 Ranked Louisville Cardinals are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They returned just two starters from a team that went 31-6 last year and certainly will not be as good in 2014-15.

Those two returning starters are Chris Jones (10.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg) and Montrezl Harrell (14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg), who are good ones.  However, the losses of Russ Smith (18.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Luke Hancock (12.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg) cannot be overstated.

Louisville has pretty much beaten up on a soft schedule en route to a 7-0 start.  Two of its three closest wins have come against Big Ten opponents in Minnesota (81-68) and Ohio State (64-55).  I believe that Indiana is better than both Minnesota and Ohio State this year.

The Hoosiers will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They returned two starters this year, including their top scorer from last season in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg last year), who just does everything for this team.

Ferrelly (17.2 ppg, 5.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) has picked up where he left off last year.  James Blackmon Jr. (19.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) is one of the best freshmen in the country.  He is hitting 54.2% from 3-point range.  Troy Williams (12.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Robert Johnson (11.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.9 apg) have also helped give the Hoosiers balanced scoring among their starting lineup.

Indiana has gotten off to a 7-1 start this season.  It has beaten two of the better teams in the country along the way.  It topped SMU 74-68 at home despite being a 1-point underdog in that contest.  It also throttled Pittsburgh 81-69 at home as only a 2.5-point favorite.

I really like this matchup for the Hoosiers.  Their offense is explosive in averaging 88.4 points per game on 52.4% shooting.  They do not turn the ball over, only averaging 12 turnovers per game.  That's huge because Louisville thrives on forcing turnovers in its pressing scheme.  It forces 20 turnovers per game. 

The Hoosiers have tremendous guards and will not be phased by the press one bit.  In fact, I expect them to beat it with regularity and to get some easy buckets as a result.  Ferrell, Blackmon Jr. and Johnson are all guards who take care of the basketball and can fill up the score sheet.

Louisville is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 vs. explosive offensive teams that score 84 or more points per game.  Tom Crean is 38-22 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Louisville is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Indiana Tuesday.

20* Villanova/Illinois ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova -4

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams in college basketball, but somehow they continue to go under the radar.  They should be much more than a 4-point favorite tonight against Illinois in this showdown inside Madison Square Garden.

The Wildcats quietly went 29-5 last year and won the Big East regular season title with a 16-2 record.  With four starters back from that team, they are arguably better in 2014-15.  They have opened the season a perfect 8-0 and are currently the No. 7 ranked team in the country.

The four returning starters are Darrun Hilliard (14.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), JayVaughn Pinkston (14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), Ryan Arcidiacono (9.9 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Daniel Ochefu (5.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg).  What has been amazing about this start is that the Wildcats have been much more balanced this year and have gotten contributions elsewhere.

Dylan Ennis (12.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg this year) leads the team in scoring.  Hilliard (10.5 ppg) and Pinkston (8.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg) haven't had to do as much.  Kris Jenkins (9.1 ppg) and Josh Hart (8.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) have joined Ennis as key contributors that maybe not many expected they would be coming into the season.

The Wildcats have not only played cupcakes, either.  Their wins over VCU (77-53) and Michigan (60-55) on neutral courts prove that they are for real.  They are scoring 75.4 points per game and allowing just 55.7 points per contest, outscoring the opposition by nearly 20 points per game on the season.

Illinois was expected to be improved in the Big Ten this season after going 20-15 last year.  That's because they returned all five starters from that squad.  Unfortunately for them, Tracy Abrams (10.3 ppg, 3.2 apg) suffered a season-ending knee injury in November and is out for the season, giving them essentially four returning starters.

Rayvonte Rice (15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg last year) is their best returning starter by far.  But Nnanna Egwu (6.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Malcolm Hill (4.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Kendrick Nunn (6.2 ppg) are counted as their other three returning starters, which is not very impressive in my book.

Illinois has gotten off to a solid 7-1 start this season, but it has come against mostly weak competition.  Its seven wins have come against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor and American.  Its lone loss came in its only true road game in a 61-70 setback at Miami, which is the best team it has played yet.  Villanova is better than Miami.

Villanova is a sensational 44-19 ATS in its last 63 games overall.  The Wildcats are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  Villanova is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten foes.  Bet Villanova Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -9.5

The UCLA Bruins have certainly been tested in the early going in 2014.  Their two losses have come to Oklahoma and North Carolina, which are two of the best teams in the country.  I believe they are undervalued right now because they lost to those two teams.

The Bruins have taken care of all other comers.  Their six wins this year have all come by 12 points or more, including a 77-63 home win over a very good Long Beach State team as a 10-point favorite, and a 73-45 home win over CS-Fullerton last time out as a 16-point favorite.

San Diego (4-4) has no business only catching single-digits against UCLA tonight.  The Toreros are coming off an 18-17 season last year and aren't much better in 2014.  They have lost to the four best teams they have played, and their four wins have come against SE Missouri State, Florida A&M, Western Michigan and Princeton.

The Bruins are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring foes by 24.6 points per game.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UCLA) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bruins are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite.  The Toreros are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.  The Bruins are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Toreros are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +8

After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a solid start at 5-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State 74-84.

The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season.  They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Randolph (19.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Cooper (12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season.  Tulanetransfer Ricky Tarrant (14.0 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.

Xavier is a team I have pegged to take a step back this year off a 21-13 season a year ago.  That's because it lost three starters in Semaj Christon (17.0 ppg, 4.2 apg Last year), Justin Martin (11.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Isaiah Philmore (9.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  Two starters are back in Dee Davis (7.7 ppg, 4.7 apg) and Matt Sainbrook (10.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), but the Musketeers obviously lose most of their scoring from last year.

Xavier has losses to UTEP (73-77) and Long Beach State (70-73) this year that are obviously concerning.  I believe it is overvalued because it is 4-0 at home this season with four blowout wins.  However, those four wins came against Northern Arizona, Long Beach State, Stephen F. Austin and Murray State, which is not impressive at all in my book.

These four returning starters for Alabama will be out for revenge after losing a tight one 74-77 at home to Xavier last season.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Alabama is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five Saturday games.  Xavier is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games.  The Musketeers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* Florida/Kansas ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Florida +7.5

The Florida Gators are undervalued due to their 3-3 start to the 2014-15 season.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Kansas Jayhawks tonight, and I'll back them as a result.

Florida had big expectations coming into the year despite only returning one starter.  This young, talented bunch hasn't played up to par in the early going, but a lot of that has had to due with injuries.  The Gators are finally getting healthy.

Florida could easily be 5-1 right now, too.  Two of its three losses came to very good Miami (69-67) and Georgetown (66-65) teams by a combined three points.  The other was a 64-75 loss to highly-ranked UNC.  So, the Gators are obviously battle-tested right now.

Billy Donnovan is one of the best head coaches in the country.  He is actually enjoying this slow start because it has allowed him to get his player's attention.  They will respond with a big effort tonight against Kansas, especially since they last played on November 28th and have had ample time to correct their mistakes and prepare for the Jayhawks.

"Right now, the truth is slammed in our face, which I think is great," coach Billy Donovan told the school's official website. "A lot of times, in your nonconference scheduling, when you're not playing against high-level competition, it's hard to get to the truth. For these guys ... it's bringing them closer to the truth in finding out who they are and who we are."

Kansas only brings back two starters from last year and lost its best two players in Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid.  It is off to a 5-1 start this season, but I haven't been that impressed with this team.  They lost 40-72 to Kentucky to have their true colors show.  Their best win came in a 61-56 victory over a Michigan State team that isn't that good in 2014-15.

Florida is 64-38 ATS in its last 102 games after failing to cover the spread in two more consecutive games coming in.  The Gators are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. SEC foes.  The Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12 opponents.  Take Florida Friday.

15* Arkansas/Iowa State ESPN 2 National TV KNOCKOUT on Arkansas +7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a perfect 6-0 start that has them currently sitting as the No. 18 ranked team in the land.  This squad is the real deal, and they will show it tonight against No. 20 Iowa State.

Arkansas went 22-12 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament, which has lit a fire under these players.  You could see this fast start coming considering it returned three starters from last year and several key reserves.

The three starters back are each of their top three scorers in Kye Madden (12.7 ppg, 2.8 apg last year), Bobby Portis (12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), and Michael Qualls (11.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Alandise Harris (9.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Anthlon Bell (7.2 ppg) and Moses Kingsley (4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 49 blocks).

The Razorbacks have not only been winning, they have been dominating.  Five of their six wins this season have come by 16 points or more.  The only exception was an impressive 78-72 road win at SMU as a 4-point underdog.  That SMU team is the real deal, and it shows that the Razorbacks can go on the road and beat a good team like Iowa State.

The Razorbacks also have one of the deepest teams in the country.  They have a whopping nine players averaging at least 5.2 points per game on the season.  Leading the way has been Qualls (15.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Portis (14.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Bell (13.2 ppg) and Madden (11.2 ppg, 6.0 apg, 3.2 rpg).

Arkansas is only one of four Division 1 teams to score at least 78 points in every game, and it leads the SEC at 90.0 points per game.  What I really love about this team is that it is unselfish.  Indeed, the Razorbacks rank among the nation's leaders with 20.7 assists per game.

If you have followed me the last few seasons, you would know that I have backed Iowa State with regularity.  However, I simply believe it is overvalued in this spot tonight.  This is a very tough spot for the Cyclones, and a great one for the Razorbacks.

Iowa State just played on Tuesday in a 96-59 win over Lamar.  That means it has had just one day to prepare for Arkansas.  The Razorbacks last played on Sunday in a 94-77 win over Iona.  That means they have had a full three days to prepare for Iowa State.  That extra preparation and rest is the biggest reason I'm backing Arkansas tonight.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (IOWA ST) - after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after two straight wins by 15 points or more are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Razorbacks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Roll with Arkansas Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on UTEP +6

The UTEP Miners are my pick to win Conference USA in 2014-15.  They went 23-11 last season and return four starters from that squad.  I really love Tim Floyd's mentality as a defensive-minded head coach because he gets his players to go all out on that end of the floor.

The four returning starters are Julian Washburn (13.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg), C.J. Cooper (9.6 ppg, 3.0 apg), Vince Hunter (12.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Matt Wilms (5.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg).  Cedrick Lang (6.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg) is a key returning reserve from last year's 21-win team.

I have been very impressive with UTEP's 4-1 start this season because it has come against such a difficult schedule.  It beat Washington State (65-52) and New Mexico State (77-76) at home, while also topping Princeton (62-56) and Xavier (77-73) on a neutral court.  Its lone loss came to Washington (65-68) on a neutral court by three points.

Hunter (18.4 ppg, 12.6 rpg) has become an absolute beast after winning the C-USA Freshman of the Year award last year.  He's one of the best players in the country that not too many know about.  Lang (12.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), Washburn (10.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Cooper (9.8 ppg, 4.4 apg) have all picked up where they left off last year as well.

Colorado State is way overvalued right now due to its perfect 6-0 start to the season.  This is a team that went just 16-16 last year and one that does return three starters, but it is not as good of a team at UTEP, yet it is getting treated like the better team with this 6-point spread.

The Rams' six wins have come against the likes of Montana (83-66), Georgia State (80-70), Mercer (75-62), Missouri State (76-61), Pacific (75-64) and UC-Santa Barbara (65-63).  I would argue that all six of Colorado State's opponents thus far are worse than at least four of the five teams that UTEP has played.  This will be by far the toughest test of the season for the Rams to this point.

UTEP is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Miners are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  UTEP is 8-1 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons.  The Miners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by 6 points or less.

Colorado State is 1-10 ATS after a game where it committed 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 games overall.  Colorado State is 5-19-2 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  The Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  These teams met twice last year with UTEP winning 82-74 at home and losing 58-62 on the road.  Bet UTEP Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Notre Dame ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They were a big disappointment last year as they went just 15-17 and lost several key players throughout the season due to injury and suspension.

Star guard Jerian Grant was suspended after the first 12 games last year due to an academic issue.  With Grant, the Fighting Irish were 8-4, and without him they were 7-13.  He averaged 19.2 points and 6.2 assists per game prior to his suspension.

Grant is one of three returning starters for the Fighting Irish this season.  The other two are key contributors in G/F Pat Connaughton (13.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.0 apg) and F Zach Auguste (6.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Demetrius Jackson (6.0 ppg) and Steve Vasturia (5.0 ppg).

Notre Dame is off to an impressive 6-1 start this season with its only loss coming to Providence (74-75) by a single point on a neutral court.  All six of its wins have come by 13 points or more, including an 81-68 victory as a 5-point favorite against a very good UMass team on a neutral floor as well.

Grant has picked up right where he left off last season, averaging 18.4 points and 7.1 assists per game.  Auguste (15.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Connaughton (13.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Jackson (11.9 ppg) have all taken their games up a notch as well.  V.J. Beachem (8.4 ppg) and Vasturia (7.1 ppg) have been solid role players to boot.

Michigan State is clearly down this season as it already has two losses.  Yes, those losses came to Duke (61-71) and Kansas (56-61), but it also barely beat Navy (64-59) in the opener.  That's also a Kansas team that was blown out by Kentucky 40-72 and is clearly down this year as well.

It was obvious that the Spartans were going to struggle early considering they lost three starters from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  Also, top recruit Javon Bess is sidelined with an injury right now.

Plays on a favorite (NOTRE DAME) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 14-4 ATS off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997.  Michigan State is 19-35 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.  The Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes.  Take Notre Dame Wednesday.

15* ACC/Big Ten Challenge PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +10

The Penn State Nittany Lions are certainly an improved team this season with four returning starters from last year.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season, but they are overvalued because of their record.  They easily could be 3-4 right now instead of 6-1.

Indeed, the Nittany Lions have four wins by 8 points or less this season.  The only two exceptions were home wins over lowly Morgan State (61-48) and Fordham (73-54).  They lost to Charlotte (97-106), and barely beat Cornell (72-71), USC (63-61), Akron (78-72) and Bucknell (88-80).  If all those teams can stay within single-digits of the Nittany Lions, so can the Hokies.

Virginia Tech came into the season with very little expectations after going just 9-22 last year, including 2-16 in ACC play.  The outlook is much better in 2014-15 thanks to the signing of Buzz Williams, who has gone 153-86 in his seven years as a head coach with Marquette.

He steps into a good situation as the Hokies return four starters and a solid sixth man from last year.  Back are Adam Smith (11.0 ppg), Ben Emelogu (10.5 ppg), Devin Wilson (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Joey van Zegeren (6.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg).  The sixth man is C.J. Barskdale (8.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg).

Williams also signed a tremendous recruiting class that will step in and held right away.  Smith (14.3 ppg) and Van Zegeren (10.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg) have taken their games to the next level.  Justin Bibbs (12.2 ppg) and Ahmed Hill (8.3 ppg) have played well as freshmen right away.  Bibbs is a top-75 recruit from the previous class, while Hill is a top-60 recruit who score 3,000 points in HS and followed Buzz from Marquette.

The Hokies are off to a solid 4-2 start this season.  They did lose to Appalachian State (63-65) and Northern Iowa (54-73), but that Northern Iowa team is one of the most underrated in the country and will challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Title.  The Hokies are coming off their two best performances of the year with a 78-63 win over Miami Ohio as a 4-point favorite, and an 83-63 home victory against Morgan State.

Penn State is 4-13 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The Nittany Lions are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Penn State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC foes.  The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Penn State is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  It has no business being favored by double-digits tonight.  Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Harvard -7

The Harvard Crimson are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They return three starters from a squad that went 27-5 last year and won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record.

Those three starters are Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg last year), Siyani Chanbers (11.1 ppg, 4.6 apg) and Steve Moundou Missi (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  Head coach Tommy Amaker has another talented, experienced squad in 2014-15 due to the return of these three guys.

I believe the Crimson came into the season overvalued, but after losing to Holy Cross 57-58 as a 10.5-point favorite on a neutral court, this team isn't getting the love it deserves right now.  I have seen plenty from them since that loss to know that they are still the team that I thought they'd be coming into the year.

They have since rolled over Florida Atlantic 71-49 as a 15.5-point favorite and Houston 84-63 as a 10.5-point favorite.  They also beat a very good UMass team 75-73 at home as a 7-point favorite last time out, failing to cover, which is another reason I believe this line has been set lower than it should be.

That's the same UMass team that beat Northeastern 79-54 as a 6-point home favorite on November 26th.  That wasn't the only troubling result for this Northeastern squad.  It also lost 44-66 to Navy on a neutral court as a 13-point favorite.  Those two results show that Northeastern doesn't belong on the same court as Harvard.

The Crimson are 14-5 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage greater than 60%.  The Crimson are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Harvard is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The Crimson are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.  Harvard is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Northeastern is 0-6 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Bet Harvard Wednesday.

20* CBB Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska-Omaha +14.5

 This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  Then, in its last game against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

Carter (16.6 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.2 rpg)) and Patterson (16.4 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.4 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year.  Tre-Shawn Thuran (10.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year.  Rostampour (9.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and White (9.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low.  Tyus (8.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.

Kansas State (3-3) is clearly down this season.  Two of its three wins have come at home against Southern Utah (96-68) and Missouri-KC (83-73) with the latter result providing a troubling sign of things to come for the Wildcats.

They have gone 1-3 in their last four games since, which included a 60-69 loss at Long Beach State as a 2.5-point favorite.  They did have a good showing in a 68-72 loss to Arizona on a neutral court, but their 47-70 loss to Pittsburgh last time out in that same tournament shows that this team has a long way to go.

The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  Nebraska-Omaha is 6-2 ATS in its lst eight road games, and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Summit league foes.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

20* ACC/Big Ten Challenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +9.5

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are in their second season under form NBA coach Eddie Jordan.  This team should be vastly improved this year off a 12-21 campaign in Jordan's first season last year.

Jordan has three starters back from that team, including his top two scorers in G Myles Mack (14.9 ppg, 4.3 apg last year) and F/C Kadeem Jack (14.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg).  In these two seniors, Jordan has some fine leadership and go-to scorers.  Also back is sophomore F Junio Etou (5.34 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Rutgers has gotten off to a shaky 3-3 start this season, but it has played a tough schedule.  It has a win over Vanderbilt by a final of 68-65 on November 28th as a 5.5-point underdog.  It followed that up with a 26-45 loss to Virginia last time out as an 18.5-point dog.  The Cavaliers are currently ranked 8th in the country, so I'm not going to worry about that loss too much.

My choice to go with Rutgers tonight is more of a fade of Clemson than anything.  I simply believe that this team is not that good and should not be laying 9.5 points to the Scarlet Knights tonight.  Asking the Tigers to win by double-digits to cover is asking too much.

Clemson is off to a 4-2 start this season, but against a much softer schedule than Rutgers.  Its last three wins have all come by single-digits over Nevada (59-50), LSU (64-61) and High Point (62-59) with that 3-point win over High Point coming at home, and the other two on neutral courts.

While those three narrow wins are all concerning for the Tigers, the biggest evidence that they aren't a very good team has come from their two losses.  They lost at home to Winthrop (74-77) and on a neutral court to Gardner-Webb (70-72).

The Tigers did return four players this season that played significant minutes for them last year, but none of those four averaged double-digits scoring last season.  They lost their best player in K.J. McDaniels (17.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg last year) to the NBA, and they simply haven't been nearly as good without him.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (CLEMSON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 121-72 (62.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams that are outscored by their opponents by 4-plus points per game. 

Rutgers is 48-28 ATS in its last 76 games following a loss by 15 points or more.  The Tigers are 33-60 ATS in their last 93 games coming off two more more consecutive ATS wins.  Brad Brownell is 4-15 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less in all games he has coached.  Brownell is 2-11 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of Clemson.  Take Rutgers Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They have opened 6-0 with five of those victories coming by 12 points or more.  The only exception was a 79-77 win at Stephen F. Austin as a 3-point dog, which is a team that will likely be in the NCAA Tournament this year as well.  Their two most impressive wins came against VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42) both on neutral courts.

Tuttle (16.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Washpun (10.5 ppg, 3.3 apg) have carried the load up to this point, but this is such a balanced, deep team that they are tough to deal with.  THe Panthers have seven players averaging at least 6.0 points per game this season.

Richmond is a team on the decline.  It went 19-14 last year and will be hard-pressed to match that record with the loss of leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay (18.3 ppg, 4.0 apg), who was the heart and soul of this team in his four years year.  They do return three starters from last year, though.

Richmond is off to an unimpressive 2-2 start this season with its two wins both coming at home against Radford and High Points.  The Spiders have lost both of their road games with a 57-63 loss at Old Dominion as a 2-point underdog, and a 72-84 loss at NC State as a 6-point dog.  I believe Northern Iowa is better than both Old Dominion and NC State this year.

The Spiders are 5-20 ATS versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better over the last three seasons.  The Spiders are 2-9 ATS versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two years. 

Richmond is 2-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including 2-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  The Spiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Atlantic 10 foes.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha -4.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  So, it is battle-tested after playing Marquette and Nebraska in back-to-back games.

Nevada is coming off a 15-17 season last year.  It brings back just two starters from that team, losing each of its top three scorers in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.3 rpg), Cole Huff (12.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Jerry Evans (12.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg).

To no surprise, the Wolf Pack have really struggled in the early going.  They are 2-3 with three straight losses to Seton Hall (60-68), Clemson (50-59) and Weber State (56-69) on a neutral court.  Their two wins are not impressive, either, as they beat both Cal Poly-SLO (65-49) and Adams State (69-64) at home.  That performance against Adams State really tells a lot about how down this team really is.

Nebraska-Omaha is 8-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. John's +6.5

The St. John's Red Storm are coming off a solid 20-13 season last year that included a 10-8 mark in Big East play.  Steve Lavin had a young team last year, but he certainly has a veteran bunch in 2014 with four returning starters and most of the key players back from that team.

Back are starters D'Angelo Harrison (17.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg last year), Phil Greene IV (7.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg) and Rysheed Jordan (9.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg).  Also back are key reserves Jamal Branch (4.5 ppg), Chris Obekpa (3.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Sir'Dominic Pointer (5.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg).

All six of these guys are playing well en route to a 4-0 start for St. John's that included a 70-61 victory over a very good Minnesota team in the opening round of this NIT Tournament.  The Red Storm have a huge advantage in this tournament because it is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is their home court.

Here is a look at the numbers all of these returnees have posted this season.  Harrison (18.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Jordan (17.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg), Pointer (11.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.0 spg), Greene IV (9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg), Obekpa (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 4.3 bpg) and Branch (5.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg).  So, as you can see, they are all contributing significantly.  They are the top-six leading scorers on this team.

Gonzaga is getting way too much respect right now because it is currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country and off to a 5-0 start.  However, it really has not played anyone as tough as St. John's yet, and it will meet its match tonight.  It failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite in an 88-76 win over a bad Georgia team in the opening round.

There's no denying that the Bulldogs are a quality team, but they aren't the 10th-best team in the country with what they lost from last year.  They had to part ways with four players who averaged at least 6 points per game, including Sam Dower (14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Dave Stockton (7.4 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Dreew Barham (6.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  They do have three starters back and will be good again, but lost a lot of key role players.

St. John's is 71-47 ATS in its last 118 vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Gonzaga is 2-9 ATS off two straight games where it gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  They are only winning by 3.5 points/game in this spot.  They are clearly overvalued here in a game that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Storm win outright.  Take St. John's Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -7

The TCU Horned Frogs came into the season way undervalued after going 9-22 last year, including 0-18 in the Big 12.  They weren't nearly as bad as their record would indicate, and now they return almost everyone from that team and will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.

Indeed, a whopping four starters are back from that squad.  That includes the top two leading scorers in Kyan Anderson (17.0 ppg, 4.5 apg last year) and Amric Fields (13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who are two of the most underrated players in the Big 12.  Also back are Karviar Shepherd (9.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Brandon Parish (8.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg).

TCU is off to a perfect 5-0 start this season with all five of its wins coming by 15 points or more.  It has been rather impressive to say the least, especially its 81-54 home victory over Pac-12 foe Washington State as a 5.5-point favorite.

Bradley was not very good last year, and things aren't looking up for the Braves in 2014-15, either.  They went just 12-20 last year, including 7-11 within the Missouri Valley Conference.  They lose their top two scorers from last season in Walt Lemon Jr. (18.0 ppg, 3.9 apg) and Tyshon Pickett (12.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg).  The Braves only return two starters this year in Omari Grier (10.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Auston Barnes (8.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg).

It has been an ugly start to the season for Bradley to say the least.  It is just 2-2 despite all four of its games being played at home, and all four against very weak opponents.  The Braves lost 75-86 to Texas-Arlington despite being a 4.5-point favorite.  They also lost to Robert Morris (61-68) before unimpressive wins over North Carolina A&T (58-50) and Texas A&M Corpus Christi (52-38).  It's clear by those four results that this team is awful and stands no chance of competing with TCU tonight.

Plays on a favorite (TCU) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  Bradley is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.  The Braves are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Bet TCU Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Wisconsin Battle 4 Atlantis BLOWOUT on Oklahoma +7.5

Oklahoma is a team I've had my eye on coming into the season as one to watch out for.  It returned four starters from last year and added in a monster transfer from Houston in TaShawn Thomas.

The Sooners have not disappointed as they are off to a 4-1 start with blowout wins over UCLA (75-65) and Butler (59-46) in the first two games of the Battle 4 Atlantic tournament.  They did lose at Creighton 63-65 earlier this year, but the Bluejays are a top 25 team, and they blew an 18-point lead in that game.  Butler beat UNC, so that win was a very good one.

Wisconsin is overvalued right now because it is currently the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  It struggled to beat Georgetown as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday, only winning 68-65.  Oklahoma is the best team that it has faced yet.

One thing I really like about the Sooners today is the fact that they played before Wisconsin yesterday.  They played at 1:00 EST, while the Badgers played at 3:30 EST.  So, they get a little extra rest, and they also got to scout the Badgers by watching their game after.  Wisconsin played in a physical game against Georgetown that featured 39 fouls and had to take a lot out of them.

Oklahoma is 9-1 ATS versus top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last two years.  Roll with Oklahoma Friday.

15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma State -2.5

Many thought that the Oklahoma State Cowboys would take a step back this season with the losses of Marcus Smart (18.0 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Markel Brown (17.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to the NBA.  However, that has not been the case as they have opened 5-0 this season with all five wins coming by 13 points or more.

The Cowboys returned plenty of talent from last year's squad to be a force off a 21-win campaign last season.  Back are three starters in Le'Bryan Nash (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Phil Forte (13.3 ppg, 168 made 3-pointers L2 Years) and Michael Cobbins (4.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Forte (17.8 ppg, 3.8 spg, 40% 3-pointers), Nash (17.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.4 apg) and Cobbins (9.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all three taken their games to the next level.  Jeffrey Carroll (9.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Anthony Hickey (8.0 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) have both stepped in and added significant contributions to the starting lineup.

Frank Haith enters his first season as Tulsa head coach.  He steps into a decent situation because this is a team that went 21-13 last year and figures to be a solid squad again in 2014.  He also has three starters back in James Woodard (15.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Shaquille Harrison (9.6 ppg) and Rashad Smith (12.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg).

Still, it's going to take some time for this team to gel in Haith's new system, and that has shown.  Tulsa has opened 3-1 this season with a bad loss at Oral Roberts by a final of 68-77.  Its three wins have come against LA-Lafayette (64-53), Abilene Christian (65-39) and Auburn (53-35).  That's the same Lafayette team that lost at Auburn 105-80.  That's the same Auburn team that lost 90-59 at Colorado.

Oklahoma State is 98-68 ATS in its last 166 non-conference games.  Travis Ford is 62-38 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Ford is 9-1 ATS in home games after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at the half as the coach of the Cowboys.  Take Oklahoma State Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Yes, I realize that Oklahoma did lose at Creighton 63-65, but the Bluejays are obviously better than expected as they have yet to lose a game.  Also, keep in mind that the Sooners had an 18-point lead in that game and it was a complete fluke that they lost.

While Oklahoma has almost everyong back, UCLA loses almost everyone, including a couple of players to the NBA.  They only return one starter in Norman Powell (11.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  I realize that they have opened 4-0 this season, but they haven't played anyone yet as their four games came against Montana State, Coastal Carolina, Nicholls State and Long Beach State all at home.

The Bruins lose Kyle Anderson (14.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 6.5 apg), Jordan Adams (17.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Zach LaVine (9.4 ppg) all to the NBA.  Also gone are key players Travis Wear (7.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and David Wear (6.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg).  These players accounted for two-thirds of the Bruins' scoring last year.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.

Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.  It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut.  It returns three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg last year), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).

Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away.  This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools.  Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15.  He is already averaging 14.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 3.7 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.

Niang (22.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), Morris (11.0 ppg, 8.0 apg, 4.3 rpg) and Hogue (15.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season.  A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (14.0 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.

The Cyclones have opened 3-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82), Georgia State (81-58) and Alabama (84-74).  That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive. 

Alabama was 3-0 prior to losing yesterday by double-digits to the Cyclones.  Iowa State got back two key players from two-game suspensions for that game against the Crimson Tide.  Matt Thomas scored 13 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his first game game, while Abdel Nader added 4 points in the win.

This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones.  It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.

Maryland has no business only being a 5-point underdog in this game.  It lost five key players from last year's team that went 17-15.  Three of those were Seth Allen (13.4 ppg), Nick Faust (9.4 ppg) and CHarles Mitchell (6.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg).

The Terrapins are overvalued due to their 4-0 start against weak competition.  Their first three wins all came again home against Wagner, Central Connecticut State and Fordham.  Their fourth was a 78-73 win against Arizona State yesterday, which is the same ASU team that only beat Bethune-Cookman 49-39 at home as a 23-point favorite.  This is by far the Terrapins' stiffest test of the season as they clearly aren't as battle-tested as the Cyclones.

The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Iowa State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +15.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg). 

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog in its last game, showing that it can play with a team from a major conference.  It also beat Central Arkansas 100-75 in its opener, giving it a common opponent with Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers came into the season overrated with a Top 25 ranking.  They only beat Northern Kentucky 80-61 in their, and beat Central Arkansas (82-56) by a similar margin Nebraska-Omaha (won by 25) did.  Perhaps the most telling game the Cornhuskers played came in their 62-66 road loss to Rhode Island last time out.

These teams have only met twice before, and both were decided by less than this margin.  Nebraska won 76-62 in 2006 and 75-62 in 2012 as a 14.5-point favorite.  There's no question that the Mavericks are a much better team than they were two years ago and will be poised to give these overrated Huskers a run for their money tonight.

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Huskers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Nebraska-Omaha is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.

Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.  It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut.  They return three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).

Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away.  This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools.  Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15.  He is already averaging 17.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg and 5.5 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.

Niang (20.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Morris (16.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) and Hogue (15.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season.  A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (13.5 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.

The Cyclones have opened 2-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82) and Georgia State (81-58).  That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive.

Alabama is off to an unbeaten 3-0 start this season as well.  It does have blowout wins over Towson State (82-54) and Southern Miss (81-67), but its 80-74 win as a 19-point favorite against Western Carolina is concerning.  Also, all three of those games were at home.

This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones.  It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.

Alabama went just 13-19 last year and has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2012.  While it should be improved this season with four returning starters, the fact of the matter is that this team just doesn't have a whole lot of talent.  The Crimson Tide also lose their leading scorer from last year in Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg, 3.1 apg).

Alabama is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 after playing three consecutive games as a favorite.  The Crimson Tide are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last eight  games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Crimson Tide are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Iowa State is 16-6 ATS when playing just its second game in eight days over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  Roll with Iowa State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They return four starters from a team that went 16-18 last year and improved as the season went on.

Those returning starters are D.J. Newbill (17.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Brandon Taylor (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg), Donovon Jack (6.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg) and Ross Davis (8.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  Newbill has picked up right where he left off last year, scoring 24.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 rebounds per game thus far.

Penn State is off to a solid 3-1 start this season.  Its only loss came in overtime a few days ago to a very good Charlotte team that has yet to lose this season.  Charlotte plays Miami in the Charleston Classic Championship today.

USC is a team in rebuilding mode.  It went just 11-21 last year, including 2-16 in Pac-12 play.  Now, it has only two starters back from that team in Julian Jacobs (6.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (8.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg).  They lose their top four scorers from last year in Byron Wesley (17.8 ppg), Pe'Shon Howard (10.8 ppg), J.T. Terrell (9.8 ppg) and Omar Oraby (8.2 ppg).

USC is just 2-2 on the season despite playing an extremely soft schedule.  Its two wins have come against Tennessee Tech (70-58) and Drexel (72-70), which are two horrible teams.  It even lost at home to Portland State (68-76) as a 10-point favorite and to Akron (46-66) as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening round of the Charleston Classic.  This team simply is not very good based on these results.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PENN ST) - bad pressure defensive team from last season - forced less than 12 turnovers/game, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 when playing their second game in three days.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -1.5

I am big on Colorado this season and believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They returned four starters from last year's team that went 23-12 and made the NCAA Tournament.

I backed them in their opener in a 65-48 home win over Drexel as a 14-point favorite.  I wish I would have been on them in their 90-59 home win over Auburn as an 11.5-point favorite last time out.  I'll get back on them tonight as a small road favorite over Wyoming.

Askia Booker, Wesley Gordon, Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott are the four returning starters.  Scott is averaging 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds through two games, while Gordon (12.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Johnson (12.5 ppg) and Booker (8.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg) have all made significant contributions early.

Wyoming is a solid team that returns four starters from a squad that went 18-15 last year.  I really do believe the Cowboys will be a good bet for most of this season, but just not today as they are overmatched and outclassed.

Also, you have to be concerned if you are a Wyoming backer after its first two games.  It only beat Northern Colorado 78-70 at home as an 11-point favorite followed by a 61-46 victory against Western Colorado State.  Those two results are far from impressive, and they aren't battle-tested at all after playing those two weak opponents.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COLORADO) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Wyoming is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls.  The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS in thier last eight after two straight games where their opponent grabbed 26 or less rebounds.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +18.5

The Temple Owls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  I believe that will certainly show tonight as they stay within this huge spread against the Duke Blue Devils in Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in Brooklyn, NY tonight.

Temple had a rare down year in 2013-14, going just 9-22.  Even with that poor season, head coach Fran Dunphy is 169-97 in his eight-plus year at Temple.  It was an aberration more than anything as the Owls missed the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in his eight seasons.

I really like the talent that's back on this Temple team for the 2014-15 season.  It returns three starters in G Will Cummings (16.8 ppg, 4.6 apg in 2013-14), G Quenton DeCosey (15.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and F/C Devontae Watson (2.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg).  They also get 6-7 sophomore Daniel Dngle (6.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg) back from a season-ending knee injury that cut his season short last year.

Temple is off to a 2-0 start this season with one poor performance and one great one.  The 40-37 win over American in the opener looks bad, but American did get to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Patriot League Tournament last year.  It is the favorite to win the Patriot League again in 2014-15 because it returns four starters and almost all of its key players from last year.  So, that win is not as bad as it looks.

The 82-75 win over Louisiana Tech as a 5-point dog last time out was mighty impressive.  Louisiana Tech went 29-8 last year and tied for first in Conference USA.  It brought back four starters from that 29-win team as well, so it is just as strong if not stronger this year.

Without question, Duke is one of the most talented teams in the country.  However, after opening the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS, I believe it is overvalued here as an 18.5-point favorite against Temple.  This is also a very tough spot for the Blue Devils emotionally.

They are coming off a huge 81-71 win over Michigan State on Tuesday.  I was on the Blue Devils as 7-point favorites in that game, and so was the betting public as they drove the line all the way up to 8. 

The betting public is all over them again heading into this one, which is why I believe there is value in fading them tonight.  I also think this is a letdown spot for the Blue Devils because they just beat a ranked Michigan State team last time out.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last three seasons.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Temple is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. ACC foes.  Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have been decided by 18 points or less.  Take Temple Friday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Hoosiers +3

The Indiana Hoosiers should not be an underdog at home to the SMU Mustangs tonight.  SMU is way overvalued here due to its No. 22 ranking.  That showed last time out in a 56-72 road loss at Gonzaga, and they have no business being the favorite after that performance.

Sure, there is a lot to like about SMU this season.  It went 27-10 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  It brought bring back three starters from that team, but the most important starter is out right now.

SMU forward Marcus Kennedy is being forced to sit out due to eligibility issues.  He is the team's second-leading returning scorer (12.4 ppg) and top rebounder (7.1 rpg) from last year.  That means they are down to two returning starters.  They shot just 31.1% against Gonzaga last time out.

Indiana only has two starters back this year as well, but it returns its most important player in PG Yogi Ferrell (19.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg) from last year.  Also back is PF Troy Willaims (7.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and SG Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

I expect Indiana to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year, and that has shown already.  It beat Mississippi Valley State 116-65 and Texas Southern 83-64 while shooting a combined 61.7% against those teams.  It has shown improvement from deep, connecting on 55.3% of its 3-pointers this season.  They are tough to deal with because of their elite guard play.

"We're starting to formalize an offensive identity and I think when we look at our backcourt right now, what we envision is starting to come into place and we're basically playing with three point guards," coach Tom Crean said. "Ball movement should be a strength for us. It has to be."

Indiana is 12-2 at home against ranked opponents since the start of 2011-12.  They have won their last four, all against Big Ten opponents, while shooting 51.2 percent from the field.  Ferrell has averaged 20.0 points per game in those four games.

It's worth noting that Williams, Robinson and freshman Emmitt Holt are due back from suspensions tonight.  "I know they are anxious to get back. We are anxious to have them back, too," junior Nick Zeisloft said. "They will add a lot to our team."

The Hoosiers are 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games when the line is +3 to -3.  Tom Crean is 14-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less as the coach of Indiana.  Crean is 22-9 ATS in November games as the coach of Indiana.  The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Drexel +10

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 69-67 road win at in-state rival Florida on Monday.  They will simply have a hard time matching the intensity level they played with in that game when they take on Drexel in the Charleston Classic today.

Florida is way down this season with all that it lost last year.  It has not played well in the early going, so that win over the Gators has the Hurricanes overvalued here.  This is a Miami team that went just 17-16 last year and returns only two starters from that squad.

Drexel comes in battle-tested after taking on two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last year in Colorado and St. Joseph's.  It didn't get destroyed in either game.  It lost by 17 at Colorado as a 14-point dog and at home to St. Joseph's 49-52 as a 3-point favorite.

Miami loses five players from last year's team that scored at least 5.0 ppg or more.  That includes Rion Brown (15.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Garrius Adams (10.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Donnavan Kirk (7.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  Its two returning starters are Manu Lecomte (7.7 ppg, 2.3 apg) and Tonye Jekiri (4.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg).  Transfers Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriquez are solid, but this team just doesn't have that much talent.

Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (MIAMI) - slow-down team from last season averaging 53 or less shots/game, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3-point shots or better are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Hurricanes are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  The Dragons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Roll with Drexel Thursday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma Sooners -2.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Creighton won 84 games over the past three seasons thanks to an offense that lit up the scoreboard.  However, it is now in rebuilding mode under fourth-year head coach Greg McDermott, who rode son Doug McDermott to all this success in his first three years here.  McDermott was the consensus National Player of the Year and will be missed.

The Bluejays lose four starters from last year in McDermott (26.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg), Ethan Wragge (10.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Grant Gibbs (7.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Jahenns Manigat (7.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  The only returning starter is G Austin Chatman (8.1 ppg, 4.4 apg).

I haven't been all that impressed with Creighton thus far in its 104-77 home win over Central Arkansas and its 84-66 home win against Chicago State.  It was a 24-point favorite against Chicago State and only won by 18 while shooting 44.8% from the floor and committing 17 turnovers.

Lon Kruger is 11-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997.  Kruger is 24-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997.  The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Oklahoma is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7

Without question, the Duke Blue Devils are a more talented team than the Michigan State Spartans in 2014-15.  I look for them to make easy work of the Spartans tonight in Indianapolis in front of a nationally televised audience on ESPN.

Duke returns three starters from last year in PG Quinn Cook (11.6 ppg, 4.4 apg), SG Rasheed Sulaimon (9.9 ppg, 2.4 apg) and PF Amile Jefferson (6.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg).  It adds in one of the most talented freshman classes in the country in C Jahlil Okafor, PG Tyus Jones and SF Justise Winslow.

The Blue Devils are off to a fast start this season, beating Presbyterian 113-44 as a 39-point favorite, and topping Fairfield 109-59 as a 32.5-point favorite. Okafor (18.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Winslow (16.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way in scoring, while Jones (10.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) has also helped show that Mike Krzyzewski has struck gold with this freshman class.

Michigan State is in rebuilding mode in 2014-15.  It lost its top three scorers from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg), and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  It does bring back Branden Dawson (11.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg), Denzel Valentine (8.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Travis Trice (7.3 ppg), but the loss of top freshman Javon Bess to a foot injury is really hurting this team.

The Spartans have been notorious for slow starts and big finishes under Tom Izzo, and 2014-15 is no exception.  They barely beat Navy 64-59 as a 17.5-point favorite in their opener on November 14th.  That's a Navy team that has gone 20-70 over the past three seasons combined, including 9-21 last year.  The Spartans stand little chance of being competitive against the Blue Devils tonight.

Duke owns Michigan State, going 7-1 in its last eight meetings with the Spartans dating back to 1998.  That included a 71-61 win during the 2012-13 NCAA Tournament as a 2-point favorite.  Many of these meetings have been close, which is why Michigan State is 5-3 ATS, but I don't anticipate this game to go down to the wire at all given the discrepancy in talent.

Plays on neutral court teams (DUKE) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Duke Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Hoosiers -23

The Indiana Hoosiers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They were an inexperienced team last year as they had to replace most of their scoring from a team that won the Big Ten Championship in 2012-12.  They finished just 17-15.

Bigger things can be expected of the Hoosiers this year as they'll be much more experienced.  They return two starters in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg 2013-14) and Troy Williams (7.3 ppg, 4.4 apg).  They also return some key reserves led by Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

Indiana will have one of the better backcourts in the Big Ten led by Ferrell.  Freshman James Blackmon Jr. was a McDonald's All-American and one of the nation's top 3-point shooters as a high schooler and should be one of Indiana's top scorers this year.  Robinson will see a lot more time this year, and freshman Robert Johnson figures to get some run as well.

The Hoosiers put on a clinic in their opener in a 116-65 win over Mississippi Valley State as a 27-point favorite, covering the spread by a ridiculous 24 points.  They had five different players score 15 points or more, led by Blackmon Jr's 25 points.  They shot 66.1% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 73.0% from the free throw line.

Texas Southern is not a very good team.  It did go a respectable 19-15 last year in the second season under head coach Mike Davis.  Now, this is going to be one of the worst teams in the Southwestern Athletic Conference in 2014-15 with all they lose.

It's going to be impossible to replace SWAC Player of the Year Aaric Murray, who led the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament, averaging 21.6 points and 2.5 blocks per game.  They lose four starters in all with the other three being DD. Scarver (12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg), De'Angelo Scott (7.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Lawrence Johnson-Danner (7.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg).

Texas Southern was expected to return one starter in Madarious Gibbs (9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and top bench player Jose Rodriquez (11.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  However, both of these guys are hurt to start the season.  Rodriguez is out for the year with a knee injury, while Gibbs is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.  So, the Tigers will essentially be playing without each of their top six scorers from last year.

It wasn't a pretty start for Texas Southern, which lost its opener by a final of 62-86 at Eastern Washington.  It shot just 30.0% (18-60) from the floor while allowing Eastern Washington to shoot 50% (32-64).  If they can lose by 24 points to EW on the road, they will certainly lose by 24-plus to Indiana tonight.

Plays on favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, in November games are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1997.  Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record are 70-33 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Indiana Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -28.5

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 this year and put an end to Kansas' 10-year streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Rick Barnes got off the hot seat last season by leading his young squad to 24 wins and a trip to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.  Barnes now has all five starters back from last year, and he has added in the one of the nation's most highly-coveted freshmen in PF Myles Turner.  The Longhorns return their top six scorers and two key reserves from last year as well.

Turner's ability to hit outside shots allows C Cameron Ridley (11.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg in 2012-13) room to dominate down low.  PG Isaiah Taylor (12.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 3.3 rpg) was one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 last year.  SF Jonathan Holmes (12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and SG Javan Felix (11.6 ppg, 2.8 apg) are two more returning starters on this deep, deep team.

The Longhorns had little trouble in Friday's 85-50 victory as an 18-point favorite against a solid North Dakota State squad.  Taylor had 18 points and seven rebounds, while Turner added 15 points and six boards in only 20 minutes.  Texas shot 48.4 percent and held the Bison to 27.4 while outrebounding them 51-32.

Alcorn State went just 12-19 last year.  While it does return three starters and two of its top three scorers from last year, it is clear that it's going to be a long season for the Braves.  They shot just 31.6 percent and allowed Cal to shoot 52.1 percent in a 91-57 road loss on Friday.  If Cal can beat Alcorn State by 34 points, I have little doubt that this talented Texas team will win by 29-plus at home.

Plays on a favorite (TEXAS) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Rick Barnes is 38-24 ATS in November games as the coach of Texas.  Bet Texas Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -10

The Florida State Seminoles are a big-time sleeper in the ACC this season in my opinion.  They return a ton of talent from last year's squad that went 22-14 overall and 9-9 in the ACC, narrowly missing out on a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  They did reach the NIT semifinals and will be hungry to make the big dance in 2014-15

I like their chances of doing so with four returning starters from that squad.  They are G Devon Bookert (8.5 ppg), C Boris Bojanovsky (5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.9 bpg), G Aaron Thomas (14.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Montay Brandon (7.7 ppg, 4.9 apg).  Thomas averaged 18.2 ppg after he became a starter on February 5th.

The Seminoles have five guys who can play the point.  Their season would really take off if Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who was their top recruit last year but was declared ineligible, can shake off the rust from his year off and take control of the job like the FSU staff envisioned a year ago.

The Manhattan Jaspers won the MAAC Tournament championship and played in the NCAA Tournament last year.  They come into the 2014-15 season overvalued because of that fact and their 25-8 record from last year.  They aren't going to be nearly as good this season.

The Jaspers return just two starters from last year in RaShawn Stores (4.9 ppg, 1.9 apg) and Ashton Pankey (7.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  They lose three starters in Georga Beamon (18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Michael Alvarado (11.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Rhamel Brown (10.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  So, they lose their top three scorers from last year, so obviously they are going to take a step back.

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of

20* College Hoops 2014-15 Season Opener on Colorado -14

The Colorado Buffaloes enter the 2014-15 season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren't even ranked in the Top 25 even though they should be with what they have coming back from last year's 23-12 squad that made the NCAA Tournament.  They should also be laying more than 14 points to Drexel in the opener.

The Buffaloes did make the tournament last year, but lost to Pittsburgh handily 77-48.  They now have 8-by-10-inch signs taped to every office window, above urinals, in the locker, in the weight room, and taped to TV monitors that say PITTSBURGH 77, COLORADO 48.  They have used it as motivation all offseason and will be ready to go tonight.

The Buffaloes return four starters from last season in G Askia Booker (13.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.3 spg), F Xavier Johnson (12.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), F Wesley Gordon (5.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and F Josh Scott (14.1 ppg, 8.4 RPG), who is Colorado's next NBA candidate.  So, they have a ton of experience returning from last year and should be strong right out of the gates because of it.

Head coach Tad Boyle also landed two-time Colorado Mr. Basketball and Gatorade Player of the Year in G Dominique Collier, who dominated the prep level with 23.4 points, 3.5 steals and 3.7 assists per game.  He is CU's most exciting Denver Public Schools signee since Chauncey Billups.

Boyle has implemented a new, quicker-tempo offense designed to spread the court and make it difficult for teams to double-team Scott and the other bigs down low, which Pittsburgh did last March in its rout of the Buffaloes.  This up-tempo offense will also make it more likely that the Buffaloes can cover bigger spreads such as this 14-point number.

Drexel is coming off a 16-14 season from a year ago, finishing 4th in the Colonial Athletic Association with an 8-8 conference record.  While this team has made some noise in year's past dating back to their run to the Final Four a few years back, the outlook on the Dragons simply is not very good in 2014.

They return just two starters from last year.  However, one of those was Major Canady, who has been lost for the season with an ankle injury.  The other is Rodney Williams (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  They do return some key reserves in Tavon Allen (11.7 ppg) and Damion Lee (13.0 ppg), but both of those guys are battling injuries to start the season, even though they are listed as probable to play tonight.

The losses were huge this offseason for the Dragons.  They part ways with each of their top two scorers in Chris Fouch (18.3 ppg) and Frantz Massenat (17.5 ppg, 4.5 apg).  They also lose top rebounder Dartaye Ruffin (5.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  It's going to be tough sledding for head coach Bruiser Flint in the early going in 2014-15 without these guys.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It clearly has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as well.  Drexel went just 8-10 in road games where is scored 67.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting last year.

Plays on a favorite (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 67-30 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on favorites 10 or more points (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.