|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-13-14||Northern Iowa +7.5 v. VCU||Top||87-93||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
20* CBB Mid-Major GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +7.5
|12-13-14||Utah v. Kansas -3.5||60-63||Loss||-106||5 h 35 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3.5
|12-10-14||Colorado State v. Colorado -5.5||62-60||Loss||-102||9 h 15 m||Show|
15* CBB In-State Rivalry Play on Colorado -5.5
|12-10-14||Northern Iowa -3 v. Denver||65-55||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3
|12-09-14||Louisville v. Indiana +12||94-74||Loss||-105||10 h 19 m||Show|
15* Louisville/Indiana ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +12
|12-09-14||Villanova -4 v. Illinois||Top||73-59||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
20* Villanova/Illinois ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova -4
|12-07-14||San Diego v. UCLA -9.5||68-75||Loss||-105||8 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -9.5
|12-06-14||Alabama +8 v. Xavier||84-97||Loss||-108||17 h 27 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +8
|12-05-14||Florida +7.5 v. Kansas||65-71||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* Florida/Kansas ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Florida +7.5
|12-04-14||Arkansas +7.5 v. Iowa State||77-95||Loss||-105||11 h 13 m||Show|
15* Arkansas/Iowa State ESPN 2 National TV KNOCKOUT on Arkansas +7.5
|12-03-14||UTEP +6 v. Colorado State||62-65||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on UTEP +6
|12-03-14||Michigan State v. Notre Dame -2||78-79||Loss||-110||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* Michigan State/Notre Dame ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2
|12-03-14||Virginia Tech +10 v. Penn State||58-61||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* ACC/Big Ten Challenge PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +10
|12-03-14||Northeastern v. Harvard -7||Top||46-60||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Harvard -7
|12-02-14||Nebraska-Omaha +14.5 v. Kansas State||Top||66-84||Loss||-110||8 h 44 m||Show|
20* CBB Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska-Omaha +14.5
|12-01-14||Rutgers +9.5 v. Clemson||Top||69-64||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
20* ACC/Big Ten Challenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +9.5
|11-30-14||Richmond v. Northern Iowa -7.5||50-55||Loss||-102||4 h 12 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -7.5
|11-29-14||Nevada v. Nebraska-Omaha -4.5||54-78||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha -4.5
|11-28-14||Gonzaga v. St. John's +6.5||73-66||Loss||-106||9 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. John's +6.5
|11-28-14||Bradley v. TCU -7||Top||49-57||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -7
|11-28-14||Oklahoma +7.5 v. Wisconsin||56-69||Loss||-105||4 h 17 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Wisconsin Battle 4 Atlantis BLOWOUT on Oklahoma +7.5
|11-26-14||Tulsa v. Oklahoma State -2.5||58-73||Win||100||14 h 18 m||Show|
15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma State -2.5
|11-26-14||UCLA v. Oklahoma -3.5||Top||65-75||Win||101||5 h 24 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5
|11-25-14||Maryland v. Iowa State -5||Top||72-63||Loss||-106||10 h 24 m||Show|
20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -5
|11-25-14||Nebraska-Omaha +15.5 v. Nebraska||67-80||Win||100||11 h 42 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +15.5
|11-24-14||Alabama v. Iowa State -6||74-84||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6
|11-23-14||USC v. Penn State -6.5||61-63||Loss||-110||9 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5
|11-22-14||Colorado -1.5 v. Wyoming||Top||33-56||Loss||-105||8 h 4 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -1.5
|11-21-14||Temple +18.5 v. Duke||54-74||Loss||-105||13 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +18.5
|11-20-14||SMU v. Indiana +3||Top||68-74||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Hoosiers +3
|11-20-14||Drexel +10 v. Miami (FL)||46-66||Loss||-110||4 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Drexel +10
|11-19-14||Oklahoma -2.5 v. Creighton||Top||63-65||Loss||-110||12 h 49 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma Sooners -2.5
|11-18-14||Michigan State v. Duke -7||71-81||Win||100||13 h 23 m||Show|
15* Michigan State/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7
|11-17-14||Texas Southern v. Indiana -23||64-83||Loss||-110||6 h 12 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Hoosiers -23
|11-16-14||Alcorn State v. Texas -28.5||53-85||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -28.5
|11-15-14||Manhattan v. Florida State -10||66-81||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -10
|11-14-14||Drexel v. Colorado -14||Top||48-65||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
20* College Hoops 2014-15 Season Opener on Colorado -14
|04-07-14||Kentucky v. Connecticut +3||Top||54-60||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* UConn/Kentucky NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Connecticut +3
The UConn Huskies have been disrespected the entire NCAA Tournament. That's evident by the fact that they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in all five games despite being an underdog in four of them. They are using being disrespected as motivation to win a title.
People are quick to dismiss the fact that the Huskies have forced Michigan State and Florida into their worst games of the season over the past two rounds. They beat the Spartans 60-54 while holding them to 39.1% shooting and forcing 16 turnovers. They beat the Gators 63-53 while limiting them to 38.8% shooting.
Both Keith Appling and Scottie Wilbekin has horrible games at the point guard position due to the perimeter defense of Ryan Boatright, who combined with Shabazz Napier to form the best defensive guard tandem in the country. They will make life hell on the Harrison twins for Kentucky tonight, which will be a big key to victory.
Napier (17.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.9 apg) has been the best player in the tournament thus far. He has scored an average of 21.0 points per game, and even when he only had 12 against Florida, DeAndre Daniels stepped up with 20 points and 10 rebounds, Boatright added 13 points and 6 boards, and Niles Giffey had 11 points. This clearly isn't a one man show.
Kentucky has been fortunate to make it this far thanks to three last-second game-winners from Aaron Harrison. This Wildcats' team filled with freshman stars doesn't like when one guy gets all the credit. Harrison has gotten all the credit from the media because of his clutch shots, but in all reality it's not all him. I believe that could work against Kentucky and divide this locker room, rather than bring it together.
The Wildcats remain without Willie Cauley-Stein, which makes them extremely vulnerable defensively. Cauley-Stein is averaging 6.8 points. 6.1 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks per game this season. No other player on the team averages one block per game. Without his presence in the middle, this is just an average defensive team. I look for UConn to exploit it by attacking the rim without fear tonight.
UConn is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. UConn is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Huskies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games. Bet UConn Monday.
|04-05-14||Kentucky -1.5 v. Wisconsin||Top||74-73||Loss||-106||74 h 37 m||Show|
20* Kentucky/Wisconsin Final Four ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -1.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are 10 times better today than they were in the first half of the season. This young team filled with freshmen has improved by leaps and bounds. They now have the confidence after winning several close games to get here to come up big in a game of this caliber.
The Wildcats have won six of their last seven games overall with their only loss coming to Florida (60-61) by a single point in the SEC Championship. That's the same Florida team that is in the midst of a 30-game winning streak right now.
Kentucky has had the toughest route to get to the Final Four. It has had to go through Kansas State, No. 1 Wichita State, No. 4 Louisville and No. 2 Michigan. It clearly feels like it can beat anyone in the country after going through that gauntlet.
I believe Wisconsin is a worse team than each of the last three teams that Kentucky has beaten. The Badgers were fortunate to beat Oregon in the second round after erasing a double-digit halftime deficit. They also needed overtime to get by Arizona.
Like Oregon gave Wisconsin trouble due to its athleticism, Kentucky is going to give the Badgers all it wants and more in the athleticism department. The Wildcats are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, outrebounding opponents 41-31. The Badgers are only outrebounding opponents 33-32 on the year. Kentucky doesn't start a player that is shorter than 6', 6" and it's ability to win the boards will be the difference in this one.
Kentucky is 13-2 ATS in its last 14 games off two straight wins by 6 points or less. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in all tournament games this season. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the last three seasons. Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Wildcats at 8-1 SU in neutral court games this year. Bet Kentucky Saturday.
|04-05-14||Connecticut v. Florida -6||63-53||Loss||-110||71 h 58 m||Show|
15* UConn/Florida Final Four No-Brainer on Florida -6
The Florida Gators (36-2) have proven to be more than worthy of their top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have now won 30 straight games while dominating their way to the Final Four. They are the hottest team in the field, hands down.
All four of Florida’s victories in the big dance have come by double-digits with wins over Albany (67-55), Pittsburgh (61-45), UCLA (79-68) and Dayton (62-52). No other team can even come close to claiming that. Now, the Gators only have to win by 7-plus points to cover this spread.
What makes Florida so difficult to deal with is its ability to play all kinds of different defenses. Billy Donovan will deploy man-to-man, full court press, and several different zones depending on the opponent. Give him a whole week to prepare for UConn, and you can bet he’ll give his team the best chance to win by doing everything they can to shut down Shabazz Napier.
Napier has single-handedly carried UConn this far, but his run of greatness ends Saturday. He has averaged 23.3 points per game in the big dance while scoring 19-plus points in all four games. Even though he did score 26 in a 65-64 home win over the Gators in their first meeting this year, he'll be up against a much better team that has not lost since that contest. This is a revenge game for Florida, which only adds fuel to its fire.
The Gators are led in scoring by Casey Prather (13.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Scottie Wilbekin (13.4 ppg) and Michael Frazier II (12.6 ppg). Patric Young (10.8 ppg, 6. rpg), Dorian Finney-Smith (8.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Will Yeguete (5.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg) handle the dirty work inside. This is just a very balanced team that can beat you a number of different ways, but they do so mostly with their 3rd-ranked scoring defense (57.6 ppg) in the country.
UConn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following four consecutive wins. Florida is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 NCAA Tournament games. The Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Rarely will you get this team as this small of a favorite against anyone, and we'll take advantage as the Gators likely win their 5th straight game by double-digits. Take Florida Saturday.
|04-03-14||Minnesota v. SMU -3||65-63||Loss||-106||24 h 52 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/SMU NIT Championship ANNIHILATOR on SMU -3
I've said all along that SMU is the best team not to make the field of 68 in the big dance. I am sticking by that statement as I look for the Mustangs to prove that they are the best team outside of the NCAA Tournament by not only beating Minnesota for the title, but also covering the 3-point spread.
There are several reasons to back SMU in this one. My personal favorite reason is that they played the early game on Tuesday in the semifinals, so players and coaches were able to watch Minnesota play in the late game to get down its tendencies.
The Golden Gophers would go to overtime against Florida State, so the Mustangs got an extra long look at them. Head coach Larry Brown will have a tremendous game plan for his team coming into this one because of it.
Sure, it's concerning that Rick Pitino can give son Richard some advice on how to beat SMU, but let's be honest. Minnesota is nowhere near the same team as Louisville. The Cardinals' press really hurt the Mustangs this season, but the Golden Gophers' press is laughable compared to that of Louisville.
The Mustangs are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They give up just 62.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting, which is extremely impressive considering their opponents average 70.4 points on 44.0% shooting. They are also efficient offensively, scoring 71.2 points per game on 48.3% shooting.
SMU's route to get here has been much tougher than Minnesota's. The Mustangs have had to beat three teams from major division 1 conferences in LSU, California and Clemson. The Golden Gophers have only had to beat one, which came against FSU in overtime. The other three were against High Point, Saint Mary's and Southern Miss all at home by 8 points or fewer.
SMU is 6-0 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in road games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Bet SMU Thursday.
|04-01-14||Minnesota v. Florida State -1.5||Top||64-67||Loss||-110||11 h 6 m||Show|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State -1.5
The Florida State Seminoles (22-13) and Minnesota Golden Gophers (23-13) square off in the NIT Semifinals tonight in Madison Square Garden. I look for the Seminoles to win this game and advance to the Championship behind their gritty defense.
Both teams will be motivated, but I believe the motivation is greater for the Seminoles. They actually lost to the Golden Gophers on the road by a final of 61-71 on December 3 earlier this season. They turned the ball over 17 times, and they'll want revenge from that defeat.
I've been much more impressed with FSU's path to get here. It did struggled with Florida Gulf Coast before beating Georgetown and Louisiana Tech, which are both better teams than anything Minnesota faced. The Golden Gophers have beaten High Point, Saint Mary's and Southern Miss all by 8 points or fewer at home.
The Seminoles only allow 66.4 points per game on 39.9% shooting, while the Gophers give up 68.0 points per game on 42.5% shooting. FSU has been improved on offense this year, too, scoring 71.1 points per game on 46.8% shooting. Minnesota is putting up 71.7 points on 44.8% shooting.
Minnesota is just 5-10 in all road games this season, while Florida State is 10-8 in games away from home. The Seminoles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games, while the Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. FSU is 10-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days this season. The Seminoles are 12-3 ATS off a home game this year. Bet Florida State Tuesday.
|03-30-14||Kentucky -2 v. Michigan||Top||75-72||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
25* Elite Eight GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -2
The Kentucky Wildcats represent one of my strongest plays of the NCAA Tournament as they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Elite Eight. I look for their athleticism and talent to overwhelm the Wolverines, who are the most overrated team left in the tournament.
Kentucky has played the toughest schedule to get to this point. It has beaten Kansas State, Wichita State and Louisville. This young team has only gotten better as the season has gone on, and they are playing their best basketball of the year at the right time. I look for that to continue against Michigan, which is a lesser opponent than both Wichita State and Louisville.
The Wolverines were on the right side of almost all of their close games this season, including a 73-71 victory over Tennessee last round. Their luck runs out today. Michigan has relied on the 3-pointer (40.2%) to get this far, but Kentucky's length at all positions will take away that strength. The Wildcats only allow 31.8% shooting from 3-point range this year.
The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kentucky is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games. Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games. These four trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Wildcats. Bet Kentucky Sunday.
|03-29-14||Dayton +10 v. Florida||Top||52-62||Push||0||19 h 58 m||Show|
20* Dayton/Florida Elite Eight No-Brainer on Dayton +10
I was on both of these teams in the Sweet 16. I had Dayton +3.5 in an outright win over Stanford (82-72) in the Sweet 16 while also backing Florida -4.5 in a blowout victory over UCLA (79-68). While I have been heavy on both teams, I have no doubt the right move is to take the points on the Flyers in the Elite Eight.
Dayton has been underrated all season. My biggest reason for backing it last round was the fact that it had the two best wins in the tournament to get to the Sweet 16 in Ohio State and Syracuse. It also beat Gonzaga and California while losing to Baylor (66-67) by a single point in the same tournament in non-conference action earlier this season. The Flyers are 41-19 ATS in their last 60 non-conference games, so they have been underrated for quite some time.
Florida was my pick to win the Big Dance coming into the Tournament, but now it's time to fade it as it is clearly overvalued as a double-digit favorite here. The Gators won't have the same kind of home-court advantage they had in the first three rounds. Dayton should have a very good following in this true neutral court setting.
What makes the Flyers so difficult to deal with is that they shoot 46.5% as a team and 37.5% from 3-point range, which are both better than Florida. They start five guys that can shoot the 3-pointer. Jordan Sibert (12.5 ppg, 43.0% 3-pointers), Devin Oliver (11.9 ppg, 38.4%), Dyshawn Pierre (11.0 ppg, 39.7%), Vee Sanford (9.7 ppg, 30.2%) and Khari Price (6.4 ppg, 39.7%) all share the ball well to find the open man for the long ball.
Dayton is 6-0 ATS versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse this season. The Flyers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents. Dayton is 7-1 ATS in its last eight game overall. These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Flyers. Bet Dayton Saturday.
|03-28-14||Kentucky +4.5 v. Louisville||74-69||Win||100||48 h 33 m||Show|
15* Kentucky/Louisville Sweet 16 Rivalry Play on Kentucky +4.5
The Kentucky Wildcats have saved their best basketball for last. This has become a staple for recent John Calipari teams because they are so young, so they go through growing pains early in the year before it all comes together late. That's precisely what has happened for the Wildcats in 2013-14.
Indeed, the Wildcats made it to the SEC Title game before bowing out to Florida (60-61) by a single point. Considering how strong the SEC has been with three teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament, there's no question that this team is underrated. The Wildcats proved it with a 78-76 victory over previously unbeaten Wichita State.
Kentucky has the athletes to match up with Louisville. That's why it was able to knock off the Cardinals 73-66 in their first meeting this season on December 28. It held them to just 39.7 percent shooting for the game, including 6-of-26 from 3-point range. The Wildcats only shot 43.5 percent overall and 21.4 percent from distance, so it's not like they played a flawless game, either.
The AAC has proven to be one of the most overrated conferences in the country. Conference champ Cincinnati was ousted in the first round, while Memphis was throttled by 18 points against Virginia last round. UConn is still alive, but barely. The Cardinals simply beat up on a weak conference this season, but they'll meet their match in the long, athletic Wildcats in the Sweet 16.
Kentucky is 61-33 ATS in its last 94 games off a win by 6 points or less. The Wildcats are 14-7 ATS after having won two of their last three games this season. Take Kentucky Friday.
|03-28-14||Tennessee +2.5 v. Michigan||Top||71-73||Win||100||45 h 48 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +2.5
The Tennessee Volunteers represent my favorite play for the entire 2014 NCAA Tournament when they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Sweet 16 Friday night. I will be unloading on them, and I recommend you do the same.
No team is playing better than Tennessee right now. It has gone 8-1 in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming to Florida in the SEC Tournament, which isn't a bad loss considering the Gators have won 28 straight and counting. A whopping seven of the Vols' eight wins during this stretch have come by 13 points or more.
That includes wins over Iowa (78-65), UMass (86-67) and Mercer (83-63) to open the big dance. The SEC has proven to be one of the better conferences in the country with Florida and Kentucky still around, so what the Vols have been doing of late deserves even more credit.
Michigan does not deserve the credit it is getting. The Wolverines lucked into a Big Ten Title because they won every close game they were in. In fact, their four Big Ten losses this season all came by double-digits. When you factor in margin of victory, the Wolverines are clearly nowhere near as good as their record, and they'll get exploited Friday.
Michigan has had a very easy route to get here with wins over Wofford and Texas that have been far from impressive. It only averaged 32 rebounds and seven offensive boards per game, while Tennessee grabs 39 rebounds and 12 offensive boards per game. It's clear to me that the Vols are going to dominate the glass, which will be the key to their victory in this one.
Another advantage working in the Vols' favor is their ability to defend the 3-pointer. Not only do they give up just 33.8% shooting from distance, they only allow 15 attempts per game. Michigan attempts 22 3-pointers per contest, relying heavily on the long ball. I look for the Vols to defend it very well, which will be another key to their win.
Tennessee is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Vols are 56-37 ATS in all games over the last three seasons. Bet Tennessee Friday.
|03-27-14||UCLA v. Florida -4.5||68-79||Win||101||24 h 49 m||Show|
15* UCLA/Florida Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Florida -4.5
Rarely will you ever get the Florida Gators as this small of a favorite against anyone. I'll take advantage and back the hottest team in the country left in the tournament to win by 5-plus points over UCLA in Sweet 16 action Thursday.
The Gators have won a whopping 28 straight games heading into this one to improve to 34-2 on the season. I just really love the veteran presence on this team with so much experience back from last year. Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather and Michael Frazier II handle the scoring load, while Patric Young, Dorian Finney-Smith and Will Yeguete are the enforcers inside.
This is the most versatile team left in the tournament. Head coach Billy Donovan can mix and match his defenses from man to man, to full court press, to a variety of different zones. That's why the Gators rank 3rd in the country in scoring defense at 57.5 points per game allowed. With Tennessee, Kentucky and Florida still alive, apparently the Gators deserve a lot more credit for their perfect record in the SEC this season.
UCLA has been excellent in head coach Steve Alford's first season on the job, but this team will meet its match Thursday. The Bruins have beaten Tulsa and Stephen F. Austin to get here, which is soft competition to say the least. That doesn't even compare to the Gators' emphatic win over Pittsburgh (61-45) last round. Plus, the Bruins were essentially playing at home for those two games, and now they have to travel to Memphis, TN where there's no question the Gators will have a big following.
Florida is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less in four straight games since 1997. It is winning 73.3 to 57.6 in this spot, or by an average of 15.7 points per game. That's a span of 18 years without a loss. The Gators are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 NCAA Tournament games. The Bruins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC foes. Take Florida Thursday.
|03-27-14||Baylor +3.5 v. Wisconsin||52-69||Loss||-104||21 h 19 m||Show|
15* Baylor/Wisconsin West Region ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +3.5
The Baylor Bears get the nod Thursday against the Wisconsin Badgers. Few teams can claim to be playing as well as Baylor coming into this one, and no team has been as dominant as the Bears through the past two rounds of the big dance.
Indeed, Baylor is 12-2 in its last 14 games overall. Its only losses came at Texas and versus Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, which saw a ton of Cyclone fans in attendance. This team has beaten a whopping eight NCAA Tournament teams during this stretch, including blowout wins over Nebraska (74-60) and Creighton (85-55) by a combined 44 points.
Scott Drew has taken Baylor to two Elite Eights in recent memory. He always has his teams playing their best around tournament time, and 2013-14 has been no exception. What makes this team so difficult to deal with is the zone defense, which boasts 7-1 center Isaiah Austin (11.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.3 bpg) and 6-9 Forward Cory Jefferson (13.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg) who both have freakishly long arms to turn away shots at the rim.
Wisconsin has been overrated for most of the season due to winning so many close games. It was fortunate to get by Oregon last round after erasing a double-digit halftime deficit. It won't have the crowd in its favor this time to carry it. The Badgers played the first two rounds in Milwaukee, WI not too far from campus, but now they'll have to travel out to Anaheim, CA and out of their comfort zone.
Baylor is a brilliant 9-2 straight up in neutral court games this season. The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Baylor is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games. The Bears are 6-0 ATS in road games off a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last three seasons. Roll with Baylor Thursday.
|03-27-14||Dayton +3.5 v. Stanford||Top||82-72||Win||100||21 h 49 m||Show|
20* Dayton/Stanford Double-Digit Seed DAGGER on Dayton +3.5
The No. 11 Dayton Flyers are showing tremendous value as a 3.5-point underdog to the No. 10 Stanford Cardinal in this one. I'll take advantage and back the Flyers in a game I fully expect them to win outright in this double-digit seed battle.
No team has two better wins to this point than Dayton. It knocked off Big Ten power Ohio State in the first round before upsetting former Big East power and ACC newcomer Syracuse in the second. This team also beat both Gonzaga and Cal in the non-conference, and lost to Baylor by a single point.
The Flyers are a very balanced team with four players who can beat you on a given night. Jordan Sibert (12.4 ppg), Devin Oliver (11.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Dyshawn Pierre (11.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) are studs. The entire starting five can all shoot the 3-pointer as each guy shoots 30.2% or better, four shoot 38.9% or better, and three top 40% from distance, making this a tough matchup for anyone.
I was on Stanford against Kansas, but there's no doubt in my mind that this team is getting too much respect now. The Cardinal only won that game because Joel Embiid was out and because the Jayhawks had an off game. The Flyers will have more fans at this game since it is being played in Tennessee and they are from Ohio, while Stanford has to travel clear across country.
Dayton is 10-3 ATS in non-conference games this season, and 40-19 ATS in its last 59 non-conference games overall. The Flyers are 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Flyers are 12-3 ATS after having won two of their last three games this season. Bet Dayton Thursday.
|03-25-14||Belmont +7 v. Clemson||68-73||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* Belmont/Clemson NIT Tuesday No-Brainer on Belmont +7
The Belmont Bruins (26-9) have been impressive in their quest to reach Madison Square Garden in the NIT. They went on the road and beat one of the teams that many felt were snubbed from the NCAA Tournament in Wisconsin-Green Bay (80-65) before topping Robert Morris (82-71) at home.
Clemson has had a solid season and has taken care of business in the NIT, beating Georgia State (78-66) before squeaking by Illinois (50-49), both of which came at home. How, the Tigers will face their stiffest test in the Bruins, who I believe can win this thing outright.
These teams both have one common opponent in North Carolina. Belmont went on the road and beat UNC 83-80 as a 14-point underdog on November 17, while Clemson lost at UNC 61-80 as a 7-point dog on January 26. That result alone shows what the Bruins are capable of.
Belmont is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season. Clemson is 5-14 ATS after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons. The Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in home games off two straight games with nine or fewer offensive rebounds. Roll with Belmont Tuesday.
|03-24-14||Arkansas +2.5 v. California||64-75||Loss||-110||13 h 35 m||Show|
15* Arkansas/California NIT Late-Night BAILOUT on Arkansas +2.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks (22-11) should not be an underdog to the Cal Bears (20-13) tonight in the second round of the NIT. I'll take advantage and take the points in a game I have the Razorbacks winning outright with room to spare.
The SEC has proven to be underrated in the NCAA Tournament, and it has also fared well so far in the NIT. Arkansas got off to a great start to show that it was fully engaged, topping the second-best team from the MVC in Indiana State by a final of 91-71 in the opening round.
California has been faltering down the stretch to miss out on the Big Dance. It has lost four of its last six games overall with one of its wins coming against Utah Valley State and the other against Colorado (66-65) by a single point. Colorado was crushed in the NCAA Tournament by Pitt, and the Bears lost the the Buffaloes in the Pac-12 Tournament as well. The Bears are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The Bears are expected to be without arguably their best player in Richard Solomon (11.0 ppg, 10.2 rpg), who is listed as doubtful with a concussion. Without him, this is a very small team, and they will certainly miss his rebounding. Look for the Razorbacks to get plenty of second-chance points, which will be key to their victory.
The Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Cal is 0-6-1 ATS in its last 13 home games. The Bears are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games. These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Razorbacks. Take Arkansas Monday.
|03-23-14||Baylor v. Creighton -3||Top||85-55||Loss||-115||11 h 54 m||Show|
20* Baylor/Creighton West Region No-Brainer on Creighton -3
This is an excellent matchup for the Creigthon Bluejays (27-7) and a terrible one for the Baylor Bears (25-11). That's why I'm backing the Bluejays as a short favorite in this Round of 32 showdown out of the West Region.
Creighton is the most efficient offensive team in the country. It relies heavily on the 3-pointer, making an incredible 42.1% of its shots from distance. All five starters in Doug McDermott (45.5%), Ethan Wragge (47.4%), Grant Gibbs (45.2%), Jahenns Manigat (41.5%) and Austin Chatman (39.5%) shoot the 3-ball very well.
Baylor is a zone team that does well against teams that rely on their inside game to get most of their points. However, the Bears are extremely vulnerable against teams that can shoot the 3-pointer because the zone philosophy forces opponents to beat you from outside. No team in the entire country is better equipped to beat a zone than Creighton.
The Bluejays are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 opponents. Creighton is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bluejays are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 Sunday games. I've been a Baylor backer for a while now, but now it's time to jump off that wagon and fade because of this terrible matchup for the Bears. Bet Creighton Sunday.
|03-23-14||Kentucky v. Wichita State -5||78-76||Loss||-103||6 h 31 m||Show|
15* Sunday Round of 32 No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -5
The Wichita State Shockers (35-0) are showing tremendous value as only a 5-point favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats (25-10) in the Round of 32. Despite being undefeated on the year, the Shockers continue to lack the respect they deserve and should be a bigger favorite in this one.
There are so many doubters out there that believe Wichita State is a fluke. That couldn't be further from the truth because this is basically the same team that made the Final Four last year. Now, the Shockers have come back even stronger in 2014, and it's clear after a 64-37 win over Cal Poly that this team is on a mission.
What has been most impressive about Wichita State's perfect season is the way it has taken care of business with only a handful of close games along the way. In fact, only ONE of its 35 wins this season has come by less than 5 points. That is a remarkable stat, and one that is very important when you consider this 5-point spread.
Kentucky could have suffered a big blow with the injury to starting point guard Andrew Harrison. He seemed to hyperextend his elbow late against Kansas State on Friday. Harrison averaged 10.7 points and 3.8 assists per game and would be missed. However, I am on Wichita State regardless of the injury, but if he doesn't go it would only be an added bonus.
Wichita State is 14-1 ATS when only playing its 2nd game in a week this season. The Shockers are 7-0 ATS when playing their second road game in three days over the last two seasons. Gregg Marshall has done a tremendous job of preparing this team for tournament basketball. I'll back this veteran Shockers squad over the young, inexperienced Wildcats in the Round of 32. Roll with Wichita State Sunday.
|03-23-14||Stanford +6.5 v. Kansas||60-57||Win||100||3 h 5 m||Show|
15* Stanford/Kansas Early ANNIHILATOR on Stanford +6.5
The Stanford Cardinal (22-12) catch the Kansas Jayhawks (25-9) at less than full strength in the Round of 32. Without Joel Embiid, the Jayhawks are very beatable, and that couldn't have been more evident than in their first-round game against Eastern Kentucky.
Kansas actually trailed late in that game before eventually pulling away 80-69 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. Embbid (11.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.6 bpg) missed that game, and he's going to miss this game, too.
Stanford is a team that does most of its work inside the 2-point line, which is why the loss of Embiid as Kansas' primary rim protector is huge. Chasson Randle (18.9 ppg), Dwight Powell (13.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Anthony Brown (12.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Josh Huestis (11.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg) form a solid quartet that will give the Jayhawks are run for their money today.
The Cardinal are 10-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Stanford is 14-3 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season. Kansas is 1-10 ATS in road games after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons. The Cardinal are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Jayhawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Take Stanford Sunday.
|03-22-14||Connecticut +3.5 v. Villanova||Top||77-65||Win||100||35 h 14 m||Show|
25* East Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +3.5
The UConn Huskies (27-8) would have qualified for the NCAA Tournament last year had they been eligible. Instead, they had a great season and didn't get to play in it. They returned all five starters from that team, so this is a veteran bunch that has only gotten better this season.
Indeed, the Huskies have won 27 games compared to just eight losses. When you consider that three of those losses came to Louisville, this team really did have a fine season. They made it to the AAC Championship Game and lost to the Cardinals before knocking off St. Joe's in the Round of 64.
Shabazz Napier (17.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.0 apg) will be the best player on the floor Saturday, and he's capable of carrying this team to a victory like he did Thursday with 24 points, eight boards and six assists in the win over St. Joe's. DeAndre Daniels (12.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and Ryan Boatright (12.0 ppg, 3.5 apg) are no slouches themselves.
UConn played a much tougher schedule than Villanova did this season. It has gone 8-5 against NCAA Tournament teams with those three losses to Louisville, as well as Stanford and Cincinnati by a combined seven points. It has wins over Florida, Harvard, Memphis (three times) and Cincinnati (twice).
The Huskies are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games. Connecticut is now 10-3 ATS in its last 13 NCAA Tournament games. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big East opponents. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The Huskies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a neutral court underdog or less. Villanova is 12-33 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
I strongly believe that the Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country due to playing a soft schedule in the weak Big East Conference. I also like the rugged defense of UConn, which gives up just 63.6 ppg and 39.0% shooting. Their perimeter defense is incredible, and it will wreak havoc on a Villanova team that relies on finesse and 3-point shooting. Rugged beats finesse tonight. That shows today as the Wildcats get upset by the Huskies, though we'll take the points for some insurance. Bet UConn Saturday.
|03-22-14||Oregon +5 v. Wisconsin||Top||77-85||Loss||-107||11 h 23 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Wisconsin West Region No-Brainer on Oregon +5
I was all over the Oregon Ducks (24-9) as my 25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR in an 87-68 victory over BYU. I will continue to back them for a lot of the same reasons as they give Wisconsin a run for their money in the Round of 32, likely winning this game outright.
Oregon is one of the most underrated teams in the country. People forget that it opened 13-0 this season because it would go on to lose eight of its next 10 games. However, seven of those losses came by single-digits, including a whopping five by 4 points or fewer. The Ducks have only lost four times all season by more than 4 points.
The Ducks have clearly regrouped and are one of the hottest teams in the country. They have won nine of their last 10 games overall, which includes wins over UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona and BYU, which are four fellow NCAA Tournament participants. This red-hot team is going to be tough for the Badgers to deal with Saturday.
Oregon puts up 82.0 points per game on 46.9% shooting, including 38.7% from 3-point range this season. Joseph Young (18.6 ppg), Mike Moser (13.3 ppg) and Jason Calliste (12.4 ppg) can all fill it up. Plus, they all shoot the 3-ball well, which is what makes them so difficult to deal with. Calliste makes 50% from distance, while Young (40.9%) and Moser (37.8%) are solid shooters as well. Fellow starters Damyean Dotson (30.5%) & Johnathan Loyd (36.0%) can hit the 3, too.
Unlike Oregon, Wisconsin has been extremely fortunate in close games. That's why I believe it is one of the most overrated teams in the tournament and should not have received a No. 2 seed. A whopping 12 of its wins came by single-digits this season. Head coach Bo Ryan's style just does not mesh well in the Big Dance, which is why the Badgers have failed to make a deep run as far back as I can remember. The Badgers won't be able to handle the athleticism of this Ducks squad.
The Ducks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons. Wisconsin is 8-20 ATS when playing a good team (win percentage from 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons. Oregon is 7-0 ATS in postseason tournament games over the last three seasons. The Ducks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Take Oregon Saturday.
|03-22-14||Texas +5 v. Michigan||65-79||Loss||-105||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* Texas/Michigan Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on Texas +5
This play is just as much a fade of Michigan (26-8) as it is a play on Texas (24-10). I strongly believe that all of the No. 2 seeds are overrated outside of perhaps Kansas, and Michigan may be the most overrated of them all.
Sure, the Wolverines won the Big Ten, which is no small feat, but they did so by getting extremely lucky in close games. A whopping 13 of their 17 Big Ten wins came by 10 points or less. Seven of those came by 5 points or fewer. This game easily could be decided by 5 points or less with the way that Michigan hasn't been able to blow teams out.
Even more telling are Michigan's only four Big Ten losses this season. All four came by double-digits against Indiana (52-63), Iowa (67-85), Wisconsin (62-75) and Michigan State (55-69). Clearly, this team is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate because it simply was very fortunate in close games all year. But winning the Big Ten got them a No. 2 seed, and now there is value in playing against them.
Texas has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. It got not love coming into the year due to missing the Big Dance last season, and it continues to get no love today as an underdog in a game that I fully expect them to win outright, though I'll take the points for some insurance.
The Longhorns played a gauntlet of a schedule in the Big 12 this season, which will have them prepared for this contest. It managed to win a whopping nine games against NCAA Tournament teams this year. I love its size inside, which is why it ranks 4th in the country in rebounding at 41.8 boards per game. Michigan relies too much on its perimeter and will get dominated on the glass. Michigan ranks 303rd in the country in rebounding at 31.9 boards per game. I'll take the better rebounding team more times than not because second-chance opportunities lead to easy points.
Michigan is 1-7 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season. It is only winning 74.3 to 73.6 in this spot, or by an average of 0.7 points per game. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten opponents. The Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Roll with Texas Saturday.
|03-21-14||Kansas State v. Kentucky -5||49-56||Win||100||53 h 48 m||Show|
15* K-State/Kentucky Friday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky -5
The Kentucky Wildcats were one of the youngest teams in the country coming into the season. It was obvious that they came into the year overrated, and they struggled in the early going. However, like almost every John Calipari team, they got better as the season progressed.
Indeed, the Wildcats are peaking heading into the NCAA Tournament. They beat LSU (85-67) and Georgia (70-58) handily in the SEC Tournament before falling by a single point to Florida (60-61) in the SEC Title Game. That's the same Gators team that has now won 26 straight games, so the Wildcats believe they can play with anyone.
The other Wildcats from Kansas State also had a very solid year. However, I believe this is the worst team to represent the Big 12 in the NCAA Tournament, and the most likely to get knocked off in the first round. Kansas State went 15-2 at home this season compared to just 5-10 on the road. It simply is not the same team when it steps away from Manhattan.
Kentucky is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 road games off five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. Kentucky is one of the most athletic teams in the country, while Kansas State is one of the least athletic teams in the Big 12. I believe that athleticism, coupled with the growth of this team throughout the season, leads to a blowout victory for the favorite. Bet Kentucky Friday.
|03-21-14||NC Central v. Iowa State -8.5||Top||75-93||Win||100||53 h 48 m||Show|
20* NC Central/Iowa State Friday Night BAILOUT on Iowa State -8.5
The Iowa State Cyclones (26-7) have been underrated all season. They have made me a lot of money going on an against this year, but mostly on. I rode them all the way through a Big 12 Tournament Championship, and I still feel they are being undervalued heading into the Big Dance.
The way to know that is the case is just to compare the rest of the spreads for the top three seeds. Iowa State is the smallest favorite (8.5) of all the top three seeds in the tournament. Sure, NC Central is a quality team in a small conference, but it will get blown out by double-digits in this one.
In fact, NC Central has played just three NCAA Tournament teams this season. It went 1-2 in those games while losing by double-digits to both Cincinnati and Wichita State. I look for it to suffer a similar fate tonight as it is way overvalued due to its 20-game winning streak coming in that has come against soft competition.
Iowa State saved its best basketball for last. After a win over Oklahoma State in the regular season finale, it would win three straight games over Kansas State (91-85), Kansas (94-83) and Baylor (74-65) to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. All four of those teams are in the big dance.
This team is certainly battle-tested as it went 12-6 against teams that are currently in the NCAA Tournament. What makes the Cyclones so difficult to deal with is that they start five players who can all shoot the 3-pointer. Big 12 Player of the Year Melvin Ejim (18.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg), first-team All-Big 12 DeAndre Kane (17.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 5.8 apg), and third-team All-Big 12 Georges Niang (16.5 ppg) lead the way.
The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Iowa State is a perfect 7-0 in neutral site games this season, going 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games in the process. Iowa State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. NC Central is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Bet Iowa State Friday.
|03-21-14||Stephen Austin v. VCU -6||77-75||Loss||-106||51 h 48 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on VCU -6
This is a very good price to get the VCU Rams at Friday as they take on the Stephen F. Austin Austin Lumberjacks. The Lumberjacks are getting a lot of love from the books and the betting public because of their 31-2 record and 18-0 mark in the Southland. I'm not buying it.
The Lumberjacks have only played one team that is in the NCAA Tournament. That was a 72-62 loss to Texas. This team plays at a fast pace and tries to force a bunch of turnovers, but it will be running into a team in VCU that wreaks havoc more than anyone in the country.
The Rams force the most turnovers in the country at roughly 18 per game. They are absolutely relentless, and I don't believe Stephen F. Austin is ready to deal with that kind of pressure for 40 minutes. This style of play is the reason that the Rams made the Final Four just a couple years ago because it's perfect for tournament basketball.
VCU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Rams are 10-1 ATS in road games in their last 11 first round tournament games. Roll with VCU Friday.
|03-21-14||Oklahoma State -2 v. Gonzaga||77-85||Loss||-106||48 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Higher Seed Upset Special on Oklahoma State -2
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are the most dangerous 9-16 seed in the entire tournament. They were one of the highest-ranked teams in the country coming into the season, and underachieved during the early part of the Big 12 schedule.
However, the Cowboys have really turned it on of late to show what most of us thought they were capable of at the beginning of the year. It has won five of its last seven games overall with its only losses coming on the road to Kansas and Iowa State. Both losses came in overtime, and those are the two best teams in the conference in my opinion.
Incredibly, the Cowboys have gone 0-4 in overtime games this season, and they've lost six other games by 6 points or less. So, only two of their 12 losses either came by more than six points and without overtime. That alone shows that this team was much better than its record would indicate.
Gonzaga had a good season in the West Coast Conference, but this conference was down this season as Saint Mary's wasn't its normal self. The Zags went just 3-4 against NCAA Tournament teams this season with two of those victories coming against BYU, who doesn't deserve to be in this field. It lost to Dayton (79-84), Kansas State (62-72) and Memphis (54-60) while beating lowly New Mexico State (80-68) in its four non-conference games against Tournament teams.
The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in road games off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last three years as well. These two trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State Friday.
|03-21-14||Nebraska v. Baylor -3||Top||60-74||Win||100||108 h 2 m||Show|
20* Baylor/Nebraska CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -3
The Baylor Bears (24-11) are one of the hottest teams in the country entering the big dance. It looked as if their season was lost after losing eight of their first 10 Big 12 games. However, this team has responded in a big way by going 10-2 in its last 12 games overall.
That included a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game, where it would lose to Iowa State. Few teams have played a schedule as tough as Baylor. It has faced a whopping 20 games against current NCAA Tournament teams. Sure, 15 of those were in the Big 12, but the non-conference schedule was brutal, too. They went 4-1 against tournament teams in non-conference with their only loss coming to Syracuse.
Nebraska (19-12) is a great story this season. It was nice to see it make its first NCAA Tournament in ages, but the feel-good story ends against Baylor. The zone defense that the Bears like to run will give the Huskers fits. You have to be able to hit the 3-pointer to beat the zone, and the Huskers are not equipped to do so. They only shoot 33.9 percent from 3-point range as a team.
The length of the Baylor zone is very difficult to deal with because of the two big men inside in Cory Jefferson (13.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and Isaiah Austin (11.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.3 bpg), who are both future pros. That zone is the biggest reason why the Bears have won 10 of their last 12 because opponents just simply haven't been able to adjust to it. Plus, you can't practice against it because no team has players like Jefferson and Austin on their practice squad.
Perhaps the biggest reason I'm on Baylor is because it is going to have a massive home-court advantage in this one. The AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX is only 180 miles away from Baylor's campus. Meanwhile, Nebraska fans are going to have to travel 860 miles to watch their team play. You can bet the crowd noise is going to be heavily in the Bears' favor in this one. Bet Baylor Friday.
|03-20-14||BYU v. Oregon -3||Top||68-87||Win||100||90 h 52 m||Show|
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon -3
The Oregon Ducks (23-9) represent my strongest play for all of the Round of 64 games. I look for them to put a beat down on the BYU Cougars (23-11) and likely roll by double-digits in this one.
Oregon is one of the most underrated teams in the country. It opened 13-0 before losing eight of its next 10 games. However, seven of those losses came by single-digits, including five by 4 points or fewer, and four by exactly 2 points.
The Ducks would regroup and win eight of their final nine games heading into the tournament. That includes wins over UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona, which are three fellow NCAA Tournament participants. This red-hot team is going to be tough to deal with.
Oregon ranks 11th in the country in scoring offense at 81.8 points per game. Joseph Young (18.6 ppg), Mike Moser (13.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Jason Calliste (12.4 ppg) can all fill it up. They all shoot the 3-ball well, too. Calliste shoots 50.8%, Young 41.6% and Moser 37.9%. They make 39.2% from distance as a team, which is incredible.
I don't even believe that BYU deserved to be in the NCAA Tournament. It did almost all of its damage at home while going just 9-10 on the road this season. Now, it lost second-leading scorer, top rebounder and top assist man Kyle Collinsworth (14.0 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.6 apg) to a season-ending knee injury in the WCC Championship Game loss to Gonzaga. He was the heart and soul for this team as he did a little bit of everything for the Cougars.
BYU is 0-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick over the last three seasons. Oregon is 6-0 ATS in all post-season tournament games over the last three seasons. The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in road games in all tournament games over the past two seasons. These three trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Ducks. Bet Oregon Thursday.
Note: I locked this line in as soon as it came out anticipating that it would move in a hurry. I wanted my long-term clients to be able to get in on it as soon as they could. As expected, it has jumped to -6 in most places as of this writing (11:30 Sunday Night). According to my numbers, this line should be set at -8 or higher. So, I still recommend a bet on Oregon at the current -5.5/-6 spread. I'll update this note if it moves to closer to -8. Thanks.
|03-20-14||Western Michigan v. Syracuse -13||53-77||Win||100||23 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Syracuse -13
The Syracuse Orange are going to be highly motivated for a victory when they hit the court Thursday. Sure, every team is going to be motivated, but this team will be playing with a chip on its shoulder with the way it finished the season. As such, I look for them to make a statement with a blowout victory over Western Michigan.
Syracuse (27-5) opened the season 25-0 before faltering down the stretch, losing five of its last seven games overall. After winning all its close games for most of the season, it has been on the wrong side of close games of late. Four of its five losses have come by 6 points or less. This team is still one of the best in the country, and it is now undervalued due to this recent poor stretch, which has been mostly due to bad luck.
You can bet that Jim Boeheim has this bunch grounded and making sure that they know they aren't as good as they thought they were, and that they cannot just show up to win games. C.J. Fair (16.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Tyler Ennis (12.7 ppg, 5.6 apg), Trevor Cooney (12.2 ppg) and Jerami Grant (12.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) do most of the heavy lifting for this team.
Sure, Western Michigan is red hot, but it has been beating up on the weak MAC. A look at a few of its losses this season show that it is certainly prone to the blowout. The Broncos have double-digit losses to Hawaii (68-78), Northwestern (35-51), Eastern Michigan (37-56), Buffalo (63-84) and Toledo (85-96) this season. As you can see, three of its losses came by 16-plus points, and you can chalk up another one Thursday.
One huge factor here that cannot be overlooked is that this will essentially be a home game for Syracuse. Its campus is located just 150 miles from the First Niagara Center in Buffalo, NY. Western Michigan isn't too far at 448 miles away, either, but you can bet that the seats are going to be filled with mostly orange.
Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 ATS versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 25 or more free throws per game this season. A big reason for that is that the Orange don't foul in their patented zone defense. The key to beating the zone is shooting the 3-pointer, and the Broncos only shoot it at 33.2 percent as a team. Massive advantage Orange. Take Syracuse Thursday.
|03-20-14||Dayton +6 v. Ohio State||60-59||Win||100||20 h 6 m||Show|
15* Dayton/Ohio State CBB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Dayton +6
The Dayton Flyers are chomping at the bit to take on in-state foe Ohio State. Thad Matta simply will not schedule the Flyers, but he doesn't have a choice now. I believe that Dayton is the best team in the state of Ohio this season, and that will show on the court Thursday.
Dayton really impressed me in the non-conference schedule this season. It beat then-No. 11 Gonzaga (84-79) and fell to then-No. 18 Baylor (66-67) by a single point on a neutral court. The Flyers would beat Cal (82-64) on a neutral court and Georgia Tech (82-72) on the road.
However, the Flyers have saved their best basketball for last. They have won 10 of their last 12 games overall with both of their losses coming to Atlantic 10 Tournament champ St. Joe's. That includes wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders George Washington (75-65), UMass (86-79) and Saint Louis (72-67) during this stretch.
The Flyers are one of the more efficient offensive teams in the country as they shoot 46.6 percent from the floor and score 73.4 points per game. They have four players averaging at least 9.9 points per game in Jordan Sibert (12.2 ppg), Devin Oliver (12.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg), Dyshawn Pierre (11.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Vee Sanford (9.9 ppg).
While Dayton has had no problem scoring this season, Ohio State has gone on long scoring droughts in games, which will be its downfall Thursday. The Buckeyes rank 208th in scoring offense at 69.8 points per game and 227th in assists at 12.0 points per game. While Aaron Craft is a hell of a defender, he provides little on the offensive end and is asked to do more than he is capable of.
Because of their lack of scoring, the Buckeyes have had a hard time putting teams away. That has really been the case of late as each of its last six games were decided by single-digits, including five by 4 points or fewer. That's why there is a very good chance that we get the money even if the Flyers don't win outright, and thus there is a ton of value here at this +6 number.
Dayton is 6-0 ATS in road games versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. The Flyers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. The Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. Ohio State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Thursday games. The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. These five trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the Flyers. Roll with Dayton Thursday.
|03-19-14||Iowa v. Tennessee +2.5||Top||65-78||Win||100||13 h 15 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Tennessee First Four No-Brainer on Tennessee +2.5
The Tennessee Volunteers (21-12, 11-7 SEC) were one of the last teams to get into the field of 68. I was excited to see them get in because I know that they are capable of making a run with what they have to offer. I look for them to win this First Four game over Iowa with relative ease.
Tennessee had some very impressive wins this season. In fact, its 87-52 victory over No. 1 seed Virginia may have been the most impressive win of any team all year. What I love about this team is that it plays defense. The Vols rank 16th in the country in points allowed (61.1) per game and 20th in rebounds (38.8) per game.
Iowa, on the other hand, plays little to no defense. It ranks 180th in points allowed per game at 70.1. Poor defense is the reason the Hawks have lost six of their last seven games coming into the Tournament, and they were really fortunate to get in because of it. They gave up 76-plus points in five of their final seven games, which included losses to Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota, who aren't tournament teams.
While the Hawkeyes are ice cold coming in, the Vols have been playing some of the best basketball in the country. They have won five of their last six with their only loss coming 49-56 against Florida in the SEC Tournament, a game in which Tennessee led most of the way. Its last four wins have come via blowout over Vanderbilt (76-38), Auburn (82-54), Missouri (72-45) and South Carolina (59-44).
Tennessee is 8-1 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams, outrebounding their opponents by 7-plus boards per game. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in road games after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite. The Hawkeyes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Vols. Bet Tennessee Wednesday.
|03-18-14||Indiana State +9.5 v. Arkansas||Top||71-91||Loss||-110||11 h 47 m||Show|
25* NIT Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State +9.5
The Indiana State Sycamores (23-10) are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Arkansas Razorbacks (21-11) tonight in the Opening Round of the NIT. Asking the Razorbacks to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.
Indiana State was the second-best team in the Missouri Valley Conference this season, trailing only Wichita State, which has yet to lose at 34-0. The Sycamores would make it to the MWC Title Game before falling 69-83 to the Shockers.
The Sycamores are a balanced team that is capable of competing with anyone in the country. They have five players averaging at least 9.8 points per game this season, led by Jake Odom (13.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.5 apg), who does a little bit of everything for this team.
Arkansas is going to come into this game lacking motivation after falling short of the NCAA Tournament when it looked like it would be in for sure a couple weeks ago. However, an ugly loss at Alabama (58-83) and an even worse loss to South Carolina (69-71) in the SEC Tournament in the final two games of the season did them in.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 82-39 (67.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Indiana State Tuesday.
|03-16-14||Michigan State -3 v. Michigan||Top||69-55||Win||100||18 h 7 m||Show|
25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -3
The Michigan State Spartans are going to be out for revenge Saturday when they take on the Michigan Wolverines. They lost both regular season meeting, though the home loss comes with an asterisk because they were playing without their top two post players in Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson.
In fact, Payne (15.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg) have missed significant time due to injury this year, while Keith Appling (12.5 ppg, 4.7 apg) has been bothered by nagging injuries as well. That's why it is amazing that the Spartans have still managed to go 25-8 this season while playing a brutal schedule.
Now healthy, this team has really taken off. The Spartans have one three of their past four with their only loss coming by a mere two points at Ohio State. They beat Iowa (86-76) at home before topping Northwestern (67-51) and Wisconsin (83-75) in the Big Ten Tournament. That game against the Badgers was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.
Michigan is the most overrated team in the country in my opinion. It has won so many close games this year to really inflate its record. That includes two wins by a combined 4 points in the Big Ten Tournament over Illinois (64-63) and Ohio State (72-69). The Wolverines' luck runs out Sunday in the championship game against a Spartans team that simply wants it more after losing the first two meetings.
Michigan State is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (winning percentage from 60% to 80%) this season. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two seasons. Bet Michigan State Sunday.
|03-16-14||Duke v. Virginia +1.5||63-72||Win||100||4 h 3 m||Show|
15* Duke/Virginia ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +1.5
The Virginia Cavaliers will be out for revenge from a narrow 65-69 loss at Duke on January 13 in their lone meeting this season. Nobody has been able to win at Cameron Indoor, and the Cavaliers actually held a lead in the final minute of that game. On a neutral court this time around, I look for them to have their payback.
Virginia has really taken off since that loss to Duke, going 15-1 in its last 16 games overall with its only loss coming in overtime at Maryland in the season finale. That was after they had already wrapped up the ACC regular season title, so it was a clear letdown spot. This team will be motivated to cap off the double-whammy in winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles.
While Virginia beat two very good teams in FSU and Pitt coming in, Duke struggled to beat two teams that didn't even sniff the NCAA Tournament in Clemson (63-62) and NC State (75-67). This Blue Devils team has been vulnerable all season because they do not play much defense at all. They'll be up against arguably the best defensive team in the country in Virginia, which gives up just 55.1 points per game on 38.5 percent shooting. Duke allows 66.9 points on 45.4 percent shooting to compare.
Virginia is 8-0 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games this season. The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS versus good teams that outscored their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games this season. Virginia is 5-0 straight up on a neutral court this season. The Cavaliers are 9-0-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Take Virginia Sunday.
|03-15-14||Baylor v. Iowa State -1||Top||65-74||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
20* Baylor/Iowa State Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on Iowa State -1
The Iowa State Cyclones are on a mission in this Big 12 Tournament. They have brought down more fans from Ames for the Big 12 Tournament than any other year in the history of their program. The Cyclones actually seemed to have home-court advantage over the Kansas Jayhawks last night in Kansas City.
While any regular season win over Kansas would bring a letdown into play the next game, I don't believe the letdown factor will be an issue here since this is the Big 12 Title game. I have no doubt that the Cyclones are the better team in this one, and that will show on the court Saturday night.
The home team won both meetings during the regular season, and I look for that home-court advantage that the Cyclones have brought down to Kansas City with them known as "Hilton South" will help guide them to a victory in this one. Plus, they have saved their best basketball for last with three straight wins over Okie State, K-State and Kansas.
I do commend Baylor for its ability to rebound following a 2-8 start in the Big 12. It was left for dead by the media, yet it is now an NCAA Tournament team due to winning six straight coming into this one. However, this is also a very tired Bears team as this will be their 4th game in 4 days. This will only be Iowa State's 3rd game in 3 days, and I believe that extra day of rest will really come into play here since the Cyclones had a bye into the quarterfinals.
Iowa State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS revenging a double-digit road loss vs. opponent over the past three seasons. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|03-15-14||Michigan State v. Wisconsin||Top||83-75||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State PK
The Michigan State Spartans represent my strongest play for the entire 2014 Big Ten Tournament as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers in the semifinals. They will want revenge from a 58-60 road loss to Wisconsin in their lone meeting of the season on February 9.
That was a rare win for the Badgers in this series. The Spartans are 5-1 straight up in their last six meetings, and I look for the dominance to continue today. This line makes zero sense considering the Spartans were without two of their best players in Keith Appling and Branden Dawson in that regular season meeting this year, yet they still only lost by two points on the road.
Appling (12.6 ppg, 4.7 apg), Dawson (10.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Adreian Payne (15.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg) have all missed significant time this season due to injury. That's why it is amazing that the Spartans have managed to go 24-8 as these are three starters and three of their best players. Now at full strength, Michigan State is going to be a dangerous team going forward. Wisconsin stands no chance in the rematch.
The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons. Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Wisconsin. Take this perfect 12-0 system backing Sparty straight to the bank. Bet Michigan State Saturday.
|03-15-14||George Washington v. VCU -4.5||55-74||Win||100||5 h 7 m||Show|
15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on VCU -4.5
The VCU Rams will make easy work of the George Washington Colonials Saturday. The two regular season meetings between these teams tell all that there is to know about why this is going to be a blowout in VCU's favor.
George Washington does not have the guards to deal with VCU's pressure. It turned the ball over 21 and 22 times in the two regular season meetings with the Rams. Now, with no time to prepare for that pressure in practice, the Colonials will be in a world of hurt in this one. I look for the Rams to turn them over time and time again, which will lead to easy bucket after easy bucket.
VCU has really kicked it into another gear the closer we got to tournament time. It has gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall, winning by 19, 11, 6, 19 and 18 points, respectively. While I respect what George Washington did this season in making the big dance, the fact of the matter is that it isn't even in the same class as VCU, and that will show on the court today. Roll with VCU Saturday.
|03-15-14||Pittsburgh v. Virginia -3||48-51||Push||0||4 h 45 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Virginia ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -3
The Virginia Cavaliers (26-6) have been tremendous this season. They are pushing for a top-2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and they are doings so behind a 17-2 record in ACC play. This team has been better than it has gotten credit for all season, and that is the case again this afternoon as a mere 3-point favorite.
The Cavaliers have a massive advantage in rest and preparation heading into this showdown with Pittsburgh. While Virginia has only had to play one game after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, Pitt has had to play two games. That makes this the 3rd game in three days for the Panthers.
Another reason that the Cavaliers will be more prepared in this one is that they got to play the early game yesterday. They played right before Pitt and dominated Florida State. That allowed their players and coaches to watch the Pitt/UNC game after, which will give them a leg up on the Panthers as they'll know what to expect.
Virginia is 7-0 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games this season. The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games this year. Virginia is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Cavaliers. Bet Virginia Saturday.
|03-14-14||Seton Hall v. Providence -2.5||74-80||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence -2.5
The Providence Friars came up big in a must-win situation yesterday in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. They beat St. John's, and now they move on to face Seton Hall. They are currently the last team listed on Joe Lunardi's 'Last Four In' line, so they cannot afford to lose this game if they want to make the big dance, either.
One big advantage that the Friars have over the Pirates is that they'll be well-rested in comparison. Indeed, this will be the third game in three days for Seton Hall, while this will be just the second game in two days for Providence. The Pirates had to play the first round on Wednesday, while the Friars had a buy into the second round.
Seton Hall is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here, but it shouldn't be. It has won back-to-back 1-point games over Butler and Villanova. It is getting the respect due to that Villanova win, but as I've said all season, the Wildcats are not nearly as good as their record would indicate. They are extremely vulnerable as we look ahead to the NCAA Tournament as well.
I really like the veteran leadership on this Providence team, which has helped guide it to four wins in its last five games overall to put itself in position to make the NCAA Tournament. The lone loss came at Creighton on Senior Night for the Bluejays. Senior guard Bryce Cotton (21.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) is one of the best players in the country that nobody knows about. LaDontae Henton (13.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg), Kadeem Batts (12.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Tyler Harris (11.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) compliment Cotton well. Take Providence Friday.
|03-14-14||Houston +19 v. Louisville||65-94||Loss||-110||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* AAC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston +19
The Louisville Cardinals are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers and the betting public heading into this showdown with Houston. Their 92-31 beat down of Rutgers was impressive, but it has also created expectations for the Cardinals in terms of the point spread that they cannot live up to.
While the Cardinals are getting a lot of love for that win, the Cougars aren't getting enough for their 68-64 triumph over SMU as an 8.5-point underdog. I was on them as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR and stated that they are the biggest sleeper in this conference tournament. They are fully capable of giving Louisville a run for its money, too.
Houston has won five of its last six games overall, and it is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games. It boasts two of the best players in the conference tournament in TaShawn Thomas (15.5 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg) and Danuel House (13.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg). Jherrod Stiggers (11.2 ppg) and L.J. Rose (9.0 ppg, 5.5 apg) are excellent as well. Each came up huge against SMU as Stiggers led the team with 19 points, while Rose was second with 16 points, 6 boards and 4 assists.
Sure, it's concerning that the Cougars were blown out 52-91 at Louisville in their first meeting of the season. However, they played the Cardinals much tougher in their second meeting, falling 62-77 as a 15-point home underdog. Playing them for a third time, they now know what to expect from their pressure defense. I believe this trend will continue and that the third and final meeting will be decided by less than 15 points, let alone 19.
Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (LOUISVILLE) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, in any tournament semi-final game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Roll with Houston Friday.
|03-14-14||Iowa State +4 v. Kansas||Top||94-83||Win||100||21 h 0 m||Show|
25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +4
The Iowa State Cyclones want serious payback from losing the first two meetings with Kansas this season. This team is well aware of its struggles with Kansas over the past couple seasons, losing each of the last five meetings, including all three last year.
However, a closer look shows that they were competitive in every game but one. They lost two meetings with Kansas last year in overtime. This year, they fell by seven points at home (70-77) and 11 points on the road (81-92). That trip to Lawrence was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Jayhawks pulled away late.
What has given the Cyclones trouble against Kansas is the size and strength of their interior big men, namely Joel Embiid. Embiid had 16 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in their first meeting this season. He came back with 14 points and 11 boards in the second. In the two meetings combined, the 7-footer posted 30 points, 20 boards and six blocks while shooting 70.6 percent from the field.
Now, Embiid is out for the conference tournament as he deals with a back injury. The Cyclones match up with the Jayhawks much better without Embiid on the floor, so much so that I believe they are the better team now and will win outright. I'll just take the points for some insurance.
Another factor that cannot be overlooked here is that Kansas played an overtime game yesterday against Oklahoma State. That will take more out of them, especially now that they are short-handed without Embiid. The Jayhawks also played a couple hours after the Cyclones did yesterday, which is another slight advantage for ISU as it got a chance to watch Kansas after it beat Kansas State in the early game.
The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Kansas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. The Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. The Cyclones are 71-46 ATS versus teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games since 1997. Bet Iowa State Friday.
|03-13-14||Utah +7.5 v. Arizona||39-71||Loss||-105||6 h 59 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah +7.5
This Utah team really deserves a shot at the NCAA Tournament, but for now, they are on the outside looking in. They
|03-13-14||Purdue +9 v. Ohio State||61-63||Win||100||5 h 29 m||Show|
15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +9
The Purdue Boilermakers were one of the most improved teams in the country this season with four starters back from last year. While it didn't always show up in the win/loss column, I saw enough from this team in the second half of the season to know that they are capable of beating anyone in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Boilermakers simply had bad fortune in close games this season. They lost road games at Wisconsin (76-70) by six and at Iowa (76-83) by seven, while also falling at home to Michigan (76-77) in overtime in three of their final four games of the regular season. Those three games right there all show what this team is capable of because it had a chance to win every one.
Purdue is going to be out for revenge on Ohio State after dropping both regular season meetings. It lost 69-78 at home and 49-67 on the road. Sure, that is concerning, but to beat a pesky team like Purdue by 9-plus points three times in one season is asking a lot. Plus, the Boilermakers will have a bit of a home-court advantage as this game will be played in Indianapolis.
Plays against neutral court teams (OHIO ST) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 51-15 (77.3%) ATS since 1997. The Boilermakers are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 games following an ATS loss. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Take Purdue Thursday.
|03-13-14||Houston +8.5 v. SMU||Top||68-64||Win||100||4 h 59 m||Show|
25* AAC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +8.5
The Houston Cougars represent my strongest play for the entire 2014 AAC Tournament Thursday when they take on the SMU Mustangs. While they aren't one of the five ranked teams in the AAC, they are certainly the sleeper in this conference tournament.
Houston closed the season very strong by winning four of its final five games, which included a 77-68 victory over Memphis. This team also went on a 6-1-1 ATS run to close out the year, time and time again being undervalued. The Cougars have two of the best players in the tournament in TaShawn Thomas (15.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.7 bpg) and Danuel House (13.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg).
SMU showed that perhaps it was a fraud all this time at the end of the season. It lost at home to Louisville 71-84 before going on the road and falling to Memphis by a final of 58-67. This team has no business being this heavily favored on a neutral floor against a quality Houston team.
That's especially the case when you consider how closely-contested the regular season series won. SMU won both meetings, but by just 7 points on the road (75-68) and 4 points at home (68-64). You can bet that the Cougars are going to want revenge in the third and final meeting, which is the most important one with their season at stake.
The Cougars are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight conference games. The Mustangs are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games. Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with SMU. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread this season. Bet Houston Thursday.
|03-12-14||Fordham v. George Mason -5||Top||70-67||Loss||-106||11 h 6 m||Show|
20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on George Mason -5
The George Mason Patriots are the best team in the country that currently has 11 wins or less on the season. This is a team that returned all five starters from last year, but the luck just hasn't fallen their way in close games. As a result, their record is 11-19 when it could easily be 19-11.
Indeed, a whopping 12 of their 19 losses came by 8 points or fewer, and 11 of those came by 6 points or less. As you can see, this team has simply fallen short in the close games. I like the fight I'll saw from them to close out hte season as they went 5-2 ATS over their last seven games, which included outright road wins at UMass (91-80) as an 11-point dog, and at La Salle (59-57) as a 6-point dog.
Fordham (9-20, 2-14) did pick up one of its two conference wins this season at home against George Mason, but that simply places the Patriots in revenge mode. Unlike the Patriots, the Rams are every bit as bad as their record would indicate. They lost eight straight games to close out the season, including six of those by double-digits. They don't even want to be still playing as they packed it in a long time ago.
The Patriots boast two of the best players in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Sherrod Wright (15.8 ppg) and Bryon Allen (15.2 ppg) can both fill it up when they need to. These two are fully capable of carrying this team deep into the tournament as a sleeper.
Fordham is 0-7 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers this season. George Mason is 6-0 ATS off a home loss against a conference opponent this season. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Patriots. Bet George Mason Wednesday.
|03-12-14||Virginia Tech v. Miami (Fla) -6||53-57||Loss||-110||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* ACC Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Miami -6
We are getting the Miami Hurricanes (16-15, 7-11) at a bargain price in their 2014 ACC Tournament opener. They get to take on the Virginia Tech Hokies (9-21, 2-16), and I look for this one to result in a blowout victory in their favor.
Sure, they did hand the Hokies both of their conference victories this season with a 1-point home loss and a 7-point road loss. However, the fact that they lost both meetings has kept this line lower than it should be, and there's no question the 'Canes are going to want revenge while keeping their season alive in the rematch.
Miami has shown me enough to know that it is a sleeper in this ACC Tournament. It won four of its final six games to close out the season, so it is playing well coming in. It has gone on the road and knocked off the likes of UNC (63-57), Georgia Tech (56-42), Florida State (77-73) and NC State (85-70) in ACC play this season, playing its best basketball away from home.
Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in road games after having lost 15 or more of its last 20 games over the past two seasons. Miami is 11-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The Hurricanes are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Miami Wednesday.
|03-12-14||Washington v. Utah -5.5||61-67||Win||100||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -5.5
This Utah team really deserves a shot at the NCAA Tournament, but for now, they are on the outside looking in. They
|03-11-14||BYU v. Gonzaga -4||64-75||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* BYU/Gonzaga WCC Championship No-Brainer on Gonzaga -4
I look for the Gonzaga Bulldogs to take down the WCC Conference Tournament Championship tonight with a lopsided victory over the BYU Cougars. The Bulldogs have won six of the past eight WCC titles and they'll add another one to their r
|03-10-14||Bowling Green v. Northern Illinois -3||51-54||Push||0||9 h 18 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -3
The Northern Illinois Huskies (14-16) get the call as a small home favorite over the Bowling Green Falcons (12-19) in the first round of the MAC Tournament. This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers, and we'll take advantage.
Northern Illinois has been undervalued for quite some time now, and that has continued here tonight. Indeed, the Huskies are 10-0-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. That includes outright wins over Kent State as an 11-point dog, Miami Ohio as a 3-point dog, Eastern Michigan as a 4-point dog, Toledo as a 5.5-point dog and Ball State as a 2.5-point dog.
Bowling Green is not playing well coming into the MAC Tournament. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with blowout losses to Akron (47-57), Ohio (61-72) and Buffalo (65-88). It has lost eight of its last 10 overall and I don't foresee it magically turning things around tonight. The Huskies already beat the Falcons 45-36 on the road as an 8.5-point dog back on January 12 in their first meeting of the season.
The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Bowling Green is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Northern Illinois is 10-0-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall. The Huskies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the home team. Roll with Northern Illinois Monday.
|03-09-14||Wisconsin v. Nebraska +3||Top||68-77||Win||100||9 h 13 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +3
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (18-11) are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. They could really use a win Sunday over Wisconsin (25-5) to get on the right side of the bubble, and they'll be highly motivated in their regular season finale as a result.
Nebraska is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now. It has won seven of its past eight games overall heading into this showdown with the Badgers, who really don't have a ton to play for in this one.
The Huskers are 14-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.4 points per game. Quietly, they have had one of the best home-court advantages in the country. This place will be rocking Sunday with what's at stake.
Nebraska is 8-0 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record this season. The Huskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Nebraska is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games. Bet Nebraska Sunday.
|03-08-14||Connecticut +9.5 v. Louisville||48-81||Loss||-110||16 h 31 m||Show|
15* UConn/Louisville CBS Saturday No-Brainer Connecticut +9.5
The Connecticut Huskies (24-6) will want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season. They fell 65-76 at home to the Louisville Cardinals on January 18, and I look for them to try and return the favor in this one. They shot just 35.2% from the field in the loss.
Louisville comes in overvalued off its big win at SMU on Wednesday. Russ Smith simply could not miss, connecting all six of his 3-point attempts in the second half to help the Cardinals pull away for an 84-71 victory. He is a streaky shooter, and there's zero chance he shoots as well as he did last time out.
UConn has been playing very well over the past month and a half. It has gone 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games overall since that loss to Louisville. It has beaten Memphis and Cincinnati during this stretch, and its two losses came by 5 and 9 points.
The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in road games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Louisville is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the road dog. Roll with Connecticut Saturday.
|03-08-14||Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -3||Top||81-85||Win||100||19 h 32 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State -3
The Iowa State Cyclones (22-7) will roll on Senior Day against Oklahoma State (20-10). The Cyclones are not only hungry for Senior Day, but they're also looking to bounce back from two straight road loss against tough competition in Kansas State and Baylor.
I like their chances considering they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. Indeed, Iowa State has only lost TWO games over the past TWO seasons combined. Both of those losses came to Kansas, which wins the Big 12 every year, so that's no surprise. The Cyclones are 14-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17.6 points per game.
Oklahoma State is getting a lot of love from oddsmakers right now due to its 4-game winning streak. However, three of those wins came at home, while the lone road win came against TCU, which is winless in Big 12 play. The Cowboys have lost six of their other seven road games against Big 12 opponents with their only win coming by a single point at lowly West Virginia.
Iowa State is 24-4 ATS in its last 28 home games as a favorite of 3 points or less or pick. The Cyclones are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 March home games. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick over the last three seasons. The home team is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings in this series. The Cowboys are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|03-08-14||Georgetown +10 v. Villanova||Top||59-77||Loss||-110||16 h 23 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +10
The Georgetown Hoyas (17-12) are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. A win over Villanova (27-3) would likely put them on the good side of the bubble heading into the Big East Tournament. As a result, they won't be lacking any motivation today.
Georgetown put itself in this position by winning two of its last three games over Xavier (74-52) and Creighton (75-63). Its only loss came at Marquette (73-75) as a 4-point dog during this stretch. Those three efforts really show what this team is capable of, and it's clear that the Hoyas have saved their best for last.
After wrapping up the Big East title with a 77-70 win at Xavier on Thursday, the Wildcats are in a massive letdown spot here. Plus, they will only be playing on one days' rest, while the Hoyas will be playing on three days' rest having last played on Tuesday. That is a huge advantage for the road team here.
Adding fuel to the fire for the Hoyas is the need to revenge a 60-65 home loss to the Wildcats in their first meeting of the season on January 27. That was back when they were not playing very well at all, but this team has really turned it on here toward the end of the season when games matter most.
Georgetown is 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win 66.9 to 60.5 in this spot, or by an average of 6.4 points per game. Villanova is just 3-12 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days over the last three seasons. The Hoyas are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bet Georgetown Saturday.
|03-08-14||Baylor v. Kansas State -3.5||76-74||Loss||-106||16 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas State -3.5
The Kansas State Wildcats have had one of the best home-court advantages in the entire country. Getting them as only a small home favorite over the Baylor Bears is an absolute gift from oddsmakers Saturday. Let's take advantage.
Indeed, Kansas State is a sensational 15-1 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 11.3 points per game at home this year. It is a perfect 8-0 at home in Big 12 play with wins over the likes of Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas and Iowa State, which are all likely NCAA Tournament teams.
Baylor is getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to winning six of its last seven. But that has come against a very soft schedule with the only two road wins coming against TCU and West Virginia, which are arguably the two worst teams in the Big 12. The Bears did beat Kansas State in double-overtime at home, but that now places the Wildcats in revenge mode, which only adds to their motivation.
Kansas State is 9-0 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season, and 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a road loss over the past two seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Wildcats. Take Kansas State Saturday.
|03-07-14||Illinois State v. Missouri State +1||48-53||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
15* MVC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State +1
The Missouri State Bears are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball. They went 19-11 this season and I look for them to grab their 20th win tonight. They were the only team to take unbeaten Wichita State to overtime this year, blowing a 20-point lead in that game.
Illinois State (16-14) had a solid season as well, but it did most of its damage at home. The Redbirds were just 4-11 SU & 4-10 ATS in all road games this season.
The Redbirds did recently beat Missouri State 67-63 at home on February 18, but that places the Bears in revenge mode. Missouri State won the first meeting 78-70 at home.
Illinois State is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games off a close road loss by 3 points or less. The Redbirds are 0-6 ATS after covering two of their last three ATS this season. Missouri State is 9-1 ATS off a conference loss by 10 points or more over the last two years. The Bears are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. These four trends combine for a 36-2 system backing the Bears. Bet Missouri State Friday.
|03-06-14||USC-Upstate +8 v. Mercer||75-78||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on USC Upstate +8
The USC Upstate Spartans (19-13) are showing tremendous value in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament semifinals tonight as they take on the Mercer Bears (24-8). Oddsmakers are giving the Bears a little too much respect in this one due to home-court advantage.
The Spartans have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They have only lost one game by more than 10 points all season, and that came at Cincinnati. They have only lost one game in conference play by more than 6 points all season as well.
USC Upstate clearly has really had Mercer's number this season. After losing 60-62 on the road in their first meeting, the Spartans got revenge with an 80-61 home victory on February 2. They outrebounded Mercer by 7 and 8 boards in the two meetings, respectively.
Plays on a road team (USC UPSTATE) - after two straight wins by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 85 points or more are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Spartans re 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. the Bears are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Bet USC Upstate Thursday.
|03-05-14||West Virginia v. Oklahoma -8||62-72||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -8
The Oklahoma Sooners (21-8) have gone under the radar all season. Lon Krueger has done an excellent job with this team as the Sooners are clearly one of the best teams in the Big 12, which is arguably the best conference in the country. They are tied for second in the conference with 10-6 record.
While the Sooners do have some impressive road wins this season, they have done most of their damage within the conference at home. Indeed, they are 6-2 at home this season in the Big 12 with blowout wins over the likes of Oklahoma State (88-76), Baylor (88-72), Kansas State (84-73) and Texas (77-65). To beat all four of those teams by double-digits is saying something considering all four are likely going to the big dance.
West Virginia (16-13), meanwhile, will not be going to the big dance. It has lost three of four, including blowout losses against Texas (71-88), Baylor (75-88) and Iowa State (66-83). Its lone win came against Big 12 bottom feeder TCU, which has yet to win a conference game. The Mountaineers did beat the Sooners at home 91-86 in their first meeting, but that will just have Oklahoma out for revenge and playing even more motivated on Senior Night.
Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds this season. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Sooners. Roll with Oklahoma Wednesday.
|03-05-14||Dayton v. St. Louis -7||Top||72-67||Loss||-106||10 h 44 m||Show|
20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Saint Louis -7
The Saint Louis Billikens are coming off their first two-game losing streak of the season. They need a win tonight to clinch at least a share of the Atlantic 10 title, so they certainly will not be lacking any motivation. In fact, I look for them to play with more passion tonight than in any other game all season.
This is Senior Night for the Billikens, who rely on their seniors more than any other team in the country. Indeed, five of their top six scorers are seniors in Jordain Jett (13.9 ppg), Dwayne Evans (13.8 ppg, Rob Loe (10.1 ppg, Mike McCall Jr. (9.5 ppg) and Jake Barnett (4.9 ppg). I look for all five of these guys to rally around one another and to put on one final dominant performance in front of their home fans.
Dayton comes in playing well, having gone 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games overall. But it has done most of its damage at home and against a soft schedule. Its lone loss during this stretch came at St. Joseph's (53-79) in blowout fashion. While the Flyers are overvalued due to their recent stretch of success, the Billikens are undervalued due to having failed to cover in six straight games.
Saint Louis won 67-59 in the first meeting with Dayton on the road back on January 11. That's important because Dayton is 0-7 ATS in road games revenging a loss over the past two seasons. It is losing by an average of 12.5 points per game in this spot. Bet Saint Louis Wednesday.
|03-05-14||Louisville v. SMU +3.5||84-71||Loss||-109||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* Louisville/SMU Top 25 No-Brainer on SMU +3.5
The SMU Mustangs (23-6) have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They are once again getting no love from the books as a home underdog to the Louisville Cardinals (24-5) tonight. I look for the Mustangs to make another statement to let the country know that they are one of the best teams in the country, which they are.
SMU has had one of the best home-court advantages in the land. It is a perfect 15-0 in all home games this season, and 10-1 ATS in home lined games. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 19.6 points per game at home. It has beaten the likes of UConn, Memphis and Cincinnati at home this year.
The Mustangs hung tough with the Cardinals in their first meeting of the season, falling by a final of 63-71 on the road as a 13.5-point underdog. They outrebounded the Cardinals 48-35 in that game, including 18-6 on the offensive glass. I look for rebounding to be a big factor as to why they get revenge on Louisville at home this time around.
SMU is 7-0 ATS versus good teams that outscored their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Mustangs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Louisville is 0-6 ATS off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last two years. These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Mustangs. Take SMU Wednesday.
|03-04-14||Florida State -2 v. Boston College||74-70||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -2
The Florida State Seminoles (17-11) have some work to do if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They certainly cannot afford to lose this game at Boston College tonight, and I expect them to respond in a big way because of it.
The Seminoles have been handling the pressure of these must-win games quite well of late. They have won three of their last four, including a 71-66 victory at Pittsburgh and a 67-60 triumph at Wake Forest in their two road games during this stretch. They also beat Georgia Tech 81-71 at home with their only loss coming to red-hot UNC.
Boston College (8-21) has nothing to play for but pride at this point in the season. While this team clearly has not quit, I just don't believe that it is tough enough to take down the gritty Seminoles in this spot. FSU will want it more, and it will get it behind one of the best defenses in the country. The Seminoles only allow 38.9% shooting, while the Eagles give up 46.4% shooting.
The Eagles are 0-8 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season. Boston College is 1-10 ATS after playing its last game on the road this season. The Eagles are 1-9 ATS in all home games this year. Clearly, they have had zero home-court advantage. Take Florida State Tuesday.
|03-04-14||Marquette v. Providence -2.5||Top||80-81||Loss||-109||9 h 14 m||Show|
20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -2.5
The Providence Friars (19-10) are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament, so they won't be lacking any motivation tonight.
They have been handling this pressure very well of late as I have successfully won with them in each of their last three games. They lost at home to Villanova 79-82 (OT) as a 5-point underdog before going on the road and winning at Butler (87-81) as a 1-point dog and at Seton Hall (74-69) as a 2.5-point dog.
Adding to the motivation for the Friars is the fact that they lost to Marquette (17-12) by a final of 50-61 in their first meeting of the season. The Golden Eagles are pretty much done for in terms of making the big dance unless they win the Big East Tournament, so finding motivation could be tough for them.
The Golden Eagles are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Big East opponents, and 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. The Friars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Marquette is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. Bet Providence Tuesday.
|03-03-14||Kansas State +9 v. Oklahoma State||Top||61-77||Loss||-102||10 h 13 m||Show|
20* K-State/Okie State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas State +9
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (19-10) are way overvalued here as a 9-point favorite over the Kansas State Wildcats (20-9) tonight. Asking the Cowboys to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.
I was all over the Cowboys as my 25* CBB GAME OF THE YEAR against the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday. I felt it was a bad spot for the Jayhawks considering they had just clinched a share of the Big 12 Title for the 10th consecutive season. I figured they would be in line for a letdown and a poor performance, and that was the case.
Kansas turned the ball over 22 times in that contest to essentially give the game away. Now, off such an emotional, big win, the Cowboys are the team in the letdown spot. They are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to that victory, and as a result, they are overvalued. I'll gladly fade them here.
Kansas State is one of the most underrated teams in the country. Sure, it has done most of its damage at home with wins over the likes of OKlahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and Iowa State. However, I have also been impressed with some of its road efforts this year. It only lost at Texas (64-67), at Iowa State (75-81) and at Baylor (OT). This team has shown me enough on the road to know that it can stay within double-digits of the Cowboys.
Sure, this is Senior Night for Oklahoma State, but that means little considering it only has two seniors on its entire roster. Only one of those seniors actually plays significant minutes in Markel Brown. That's why I don't believe the motivation for Senior Night will really be there for the Cowboys, which won't allow them to overcome this natural letdown spot off the big Kansas win.
The Wildcats are a sensational 8-1 ATS versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. Oklahoma State is 6-13 ATS versus good teams that outscored their opponents by 4-plus points per game this year. The Wildcats are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Cowboys are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet Kansas State Monday.
|03-02-14||Stanford +11 v. Arizona||66-79||Loss||-110||11 h 50 m||Show|
15* Stanford/Arizona ESPNU BAILOUT on Stanford +11
The Arizona Wildcats are getting too much respect from the books tonight as a double-digit favorite over Stanford. I'll gladly take the points with the Cardinal, who need to finish strong to assure they'll be playing in the NCAA Tournament.
Adding to Stanford's motivation is the fact that it will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 57-60 home loss to Arizona back on January 29 in their first meeting of the season. I love double-digit road underdogs playing with revenge after losing the first meeting at home.
Stanford has been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past couple months. That is indicate by the fact that it is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. The Cardinal have impressive road wins over Oregon & California during this stretch.
Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (STANFORD) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 41-12 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season. Arizona is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons. Take Stanford Sunday.
|03-02-14||Marquette +10.5 v. Villanova||Top||56-73||Loss||-110||5 h 50 m||Show|
20* Marquette/Villanova CBS No-Brainer on Marquette +10.5
The Marquette Golden Eagles (17-11) are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. They could use a signature win like this one at Villanova to boost their r
|03-01-14||Houston v. Temple -3||89-79||Loss||-106||14 h 8 m||Show|
15* American Athletic PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple -3
The Houston Cougars (14-14) are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They are coming off an upset 77-68 win over Memphis on Thursday as a 7-point home underdog. I look for them to fail to show up off such a big victory, especially considering they still cannot make the NCAA Tournament without winning their conference tournament.
Temple (7-20) obviously has a poor record this season, but I've seen enough from this team to know that it is much, much better than its record would indicate. The fact of the matter is that the Owls simply have been on the wrong side of the majority of their close games this season.
The Owls have also played a brutal schedule of late as seven of their last eight games have come against teams that will likely be playing in the big dance in Villanova, SMU (twice), Louisville (twice), UConn and Memphis. The only exception was a 74-88 road loss at Houston, which places Temple in revenge mode tonight.
Houston is just 2-8 straight up in true road games this season. Temple is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 home games off a loss by 15 points or more. The Owls are 10-2 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons. Temple is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last three years. The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Take Temple Saturday.