20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +8

I love the spot for the Butler Bulldogs tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 72-75 home loss to St. John's on February 5th less than two weeks ago.  That game was lined at +1.5, and now the Bulldogs come back as 8-point road underdogs, which is too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage.

St. John's is getting a lot of love after upsetting Xavier 86-73 as 6.5-point road dogs on Wednesday.  That places the Red Storm in a letdown spot, and it also means they have just one day to prepare for Butler.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have had the last two days off after last playing on Tuesday.

Butler is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now.  The Bulldogs haven't lost any of their last eight games by more than 7 points.  That includes a 7-point loss at Providence as 9-point dogs, 17-point upset home win over Creighton as 2.5-point dogs, a 2-point loss at Xavier as 11-point dogs, a 2-point loss at Creighton as 7.5-point dogs, a 6-point upset home win over Marquette as 4-point dogs and a 2-point upset win at DePaul as 6-point dogs.

The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  The Red Storm are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games, including 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  St. John's is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game this season.  Butler is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games when revenging a loss.  Bet Butler Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State +8.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the San Jose State Spartans.  They are 0-13 in Mountain West play and highly motivated for that first conference victory.  They nearly got in in a 72-81 road loss at Nevada on Tuesday as 14.5-point underdogs.

The Spartans led that game throughout and it took a late surge for the Wolf Pack to win by 9 points.  It was much closer than the final score would indicate as I watched the entire thing.  Now the Spartans come back as 8.5-point home underdogs in the rematch and will be the more motivated team.

San Jose State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Nevada is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games overall and has been grossly overvalued all season, especially in conference play.  They have won just one conference game all season by double-digits.

Nevada is 1-8 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Wolf Pack are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Nevada is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The Spartans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with San Jose State Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -4

The Stanford Cardinal have been impressive of late with wins over USC (twice).  They have handled the teams they were supposed to handle and only lost to the elite of the Pac-12.  They are 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS in Pac-12 play this season.  Now they face a team in Utah they should handle tonight, and I expect them to do just that.

The Utes are 2-13 SU & 5-10 ATS in Pac-12 play this season.  That includes 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS on the road in Pac-12 play with five losses by double-digits.  They are getting way too much respect tonight as only 4-point underdogs against a Stanford team that is 10-3 at home this season.

Stanford is 7-1 SU in its last eight home meeting with Utah.  The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Cardinal are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  Stanford is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Utes are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Bet Stanford Thursday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico +7.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Colorado State Rams.  They have gone 4-0 SU in their last four games overall with three of those wins coming by 5 points or less.  They have been fortunate in close games, and their luck could easily run out tonight on the road at New Mexico in The Pit, which will be hostile tonight.

Colorado State is in a letdown spot here after beating Boise State in overtime on the road last time out.  That's especially the case after already beating New Mexico 80-74 at home in a thriller in their first meeting on January 19th less than a month ago.

Now the Lobos will be out for revenge from that defeat and I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright.  They have recent close losses to Utah State by 3, Boise State by 8, Colorado State by 6, Wyoming by 2 and Fresno State by 5 in their last 10 games.  They have been on the bad side of these close games with some bad luck.  But they've proven they can play with the top teams in the conference as well.  That was evident last time out when they upset Wyoming 75-66 at home as 5.5-point underdogs.

The Lobos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  New Mexico is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings with the only exception being a New Mexico road win.  The Lobos have a great shot to win this game outright catching the Rams in a letdown spot while also being in revenge mode themselves.  We'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet New Mexico Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +13.5

The Auburn Tigers have some very shaky performances of late and are clearly overvalued right now due to their 23-2 record and #2 ranking in the country.  They only beat Missouri by 1 as 12.5-point favorites on January 25th, Georgia by 2 as 16-point favorites on February 5th and lost outright to Arkansas as favorites on February 8th.

Now they are laying 13.5 points against a game Vanderbilt team that has had some impressive performances here of late.  They only lost by 9 at Tennessee as 10.5-point dogs, by 7 at Kentucky as 14.5-point dogs and upset LSU by 9 as 3-point home dogs all in the month of February.  If they can hang with Tennessee and Kentucky on the road, they can certainly hang with Auburn, too.

Vanderbilt is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Auburn.  In fact, Vanderbilt hasn't lost by more than 12 points in any of its last 27 meetings with the Tigers.  That makes for a 27-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  

The Commodores are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs of 10 or more points.  Vanderbilt is 8-0 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Commodores are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Take Vanderbilt Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso +10

Valparaiso already proved they could play with Loyola-Chicago when they went on the road and took the Ramblers to overtime in a 74-81 (OT) loss as 15.5-point underdogs.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch and I look for them to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upset.

Valparaiso is 3-3 SU at home in conference play this season including an upset win over Northern Iowa and a 3-point loss to Southern Illinois.  The Beacons have played the Ramblers tougher than almost anyone in recent meetings.  In fact, five of the last six meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less.

This is a letdown spot for Loyola-Chicago.  They are coming off three straight huge games against arguably the three other best teams in the league in Missouri State, Bradley and Northern Iowa.  And after that blowout win over Northern Iowa, they are in a sandwich spot here with Drake on deck.  I don't think we get their best effort tonight, which is going to make it hard for them to put away the Beacons by double-digits.

The Ramblers are 1-7 ATS following an ATS win this season.  The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Valparaiso is 45-16 ATS in its last 61 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  Take Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers +4

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Northwestern by a single point as 5-point dogs.

The Scarlet Knights have really been impressive in their last three games.  They upset Michigan State 84-63 as 2.5-point home underdogs, upset Ohio State 66-64 as 3-point home underdogs and upset Wisconsin 73-65 as 8-point road underdogs.  Now they will likely upset Illinois at home tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance.

Illinois hasn't exactly been crushing it of late.  They are 5-3 SU but 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They lost on the road at Maryland 65-81 as 4.5-point favorites.  They only beat Michigan State 56-55 at home, Northwestern 59-56 as 5.5-point road favorites, lost by 16 at Purdue, and only beat Northwestern again 73-66 as 10.5-point home favorites.

Rutgers is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less.  The Scarlet Knights are 7-0 ATS in home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Rutgers is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their FG attempts this season.  Rutgers is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in its last two home meetings with Illinois.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights.  Bet Rutgers Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +14.5

Nevada is just 10-13 SU & 7-15 ATS this season and has no business being favored by 14.5 points against anyone in the Mountain West.  The Wolf Pack 5-9 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall with all five wins coming by 13 points or fewer.  That's a 14-0 system backing San Jose State pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.

The Spartans have been a great bet on the road this season in conference play.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five MWC road games not once losing by more than 16 points and they have played the class of the conference in Boise State, Wyoming and Utah State during this stretch.

Nevada is 2-8 ATS in home games this season.  San Jose State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following three consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take San Jose State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Mexico +6

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Wyoming Cowboys.  They have gone 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall despite seven of those games being decided by 7 points or fewer.  They have been fortunate in close games, and their luck could easily run out tonight on the road at New Mexico in The Pit, which will be hostile tonight.

Wyoming just jumped into the Top 25 this week and that's a huge accomplishment.  I think that makes the Cowboys primed for a letdown here.  That's especially the case after already beating New Mexico 93-91 at home in a thriller in their first meeting on January 22nd less than a month ago.

Now the Lobos will be out for revenge from that defeat and I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright.  They have recent close losses to Utah State by 3, Boise State by 8, Colorado State by 6, Wyoming by 2 and Fresno State by 5 in their last 10 games.  They have been on the bad side of these close games with some bad luck.  But they've proven they can play with the top teams in the conference as well.

The Lobos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New Mexico is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Lobos have a great shot to win this game outright catching the Cowboys in a letdown spot while also being in revenge mode themselves.  We'll take the points for some insurance.  Roll with New Mexico Tuesday.

15* Villanova/Providence Big East ANNIHILATOR on Providence +4.5

Providence continues to lack the respect it deserves tonight as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Villanova Wildcats.  The Friars are 21-2 this season and having a dream campaign.  But they aren't getting treated like one of the best teams in the country like they are.

Villanova isn't exactly crushing it on the road this season.  The Wildcats are 6-4 SU in their 10 true road games this season with three close wins and the only blowout wins coming against lowly Pennsylvania by 15 as 18.5-point favorites, DePaul by 15 as 9.5-point favorites and Georgetown by 11 as 13.5-point favorites.

Providence is a perfect 14-0 SU at home this season.  The Friars are a perfect 7-0 ATS as underdogs this season.  Providence is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as an underdog.  The Friars are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Wildcats are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games.  Take Providence Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M -1

Texas A&M opened 15-2 but has been through the gauntlet in losing eight straight games to fall to 15-10.  Seven of those eight wins came by 10 points or fewer against the cream of the crop in the SEC.  They are looking at this as a must-win game at home tonight.

They should be able to handle the Florida Gators, who are getting a lot of love following a 4-1 SU stretch against a soft schedule.  They beat Oklahoma State, Ole Miss and Georgia at home and Missouri by 1 on the road.  They lost by 21 at Kentucky in their step up in class last time out.

Texas A&M is 10-4 SU at home this season while Florida is 2-5 SU on the road with its two wins coming at South Carolina and at Missouri (by 1).  The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Bet Texas A&M Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +7

Loyola-Chicago has been grossly overvalued in MVC play this season as oddsmakers have treated them as the best team in the conference all season.  But Northern Iowa may very well be the best team in the conference, and they are out to prove that today.

The Ramblers are just 2-6-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have upset losses to Bradley, Drake and Missouri State during this stretch.  They also needed overtime to beat Valpo and Bradley at home and also struggled with Indiana State on the road.

Northern Iowa should not be catching 7 points from Loyola-Chicago today.  The Panthers are 10-2 SU & 7-5 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their two losses both coming down to the wire by 3 points and in OT.  They can hang with the Ramblers on the road today as well.

Loyola-Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games.  The Ramblers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games.  The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Panthers.  Roll with Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +13.5

This is a terrible spot for the Wyoming Cowboys.  They are coming off five straight victories all by 7 points or less to improve to 20-3 this season and take control of the top spot in the Mountain West.  Now this is a massive letdown spot for the Cowboys.

They are coming off four straight wins against their top four contenders in the MWC in Colorado State (OT), Boise State by 7, Fresno State by 2 and Utah State (OT).  They won't be nearly as motivated to face San Jose State as they were those four teams, which is going to make it tough for them to cover this 13.5-point spread on the road.

San Jose State has gone 3-0 ATS in its last three games with competitive losses to Utah State, Boise State and San Diego State.  Now the Spartans have their sights set on revenge from a 69-84 loss at Wyoming as 17.5-point dogs.  Oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough for home-court advantage here shifting this line only 4 points.

San Jose State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following three consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Wyoming) - after a close win by 3 points or less against an opponent that scored 65 points or less in three straight games are 41-9 (82%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys in this terrible spot for them.  Roll with San Jose State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +11.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are playing very well right now and primed to give the Tennessee Vols a run for their money Saturday.  They are 3-1 in their last four games overall with their only loss coming 70-77 at Kentucky as 14.5-point underdogs.  That includes a 75-66 upset of LSU as 3-point dogs.

Now the Commodores have their sights set on revenge from a 60-68 home loss to Tennessee as 7-point underdogs.  The Vols won't be nearly as motivated to beat them a 2nd time around, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover this 11.5-point spread.  Keep in mind the Vols have Kentucky on deck on Tuesday as well and will be looking to revenge their worst loss of the season to the Wildcats.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this rivalry.  The road team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The Commodores are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games when revenging a loss.  The Commodores are 7-0 ATS in their last seven February games.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle +13.5

La Salle has been way too competitive to be catching 13.5 points against Richmond Saturday.  The Explorers are just 2-7 SU in their last nine games but only one of those losses came by more than 8 points.

That includes an 8-point home loss to Richmond in their first meeting this season in a 56-64 home loss as 7.5-point underdogs.  Now the Explorers are catching 13.5 points in the rematch, and this is too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage.

Richmond hasn't been blowing teams out, either.  While the Spiders are 16-9 this season, only three of those 16 wins have come by more than 13 points.  Those were against awful Georgia State, Bucknell and Duquesne teams.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  That includes outright wins as underdogs by La Salle in two of its last three trips to Richmond as 14-point dogs and 5.5-point dogs.  The Explorers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Spiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  The Explorers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games following a home loss.  Take La Salle Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +14.5

The Washington Huskies have been flying under the radar.  They are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with both losses coming on the road to Oregon and Stanford.  The Huskies are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home in conference play this season.

Now the Huskies are catching 14.5 points at home against Arizona on Saturday.  They only lost by 16 on the road as 24.5-point dogs at Arizona in their first meeting this season.  And I'm confident they can stay within 14.5 points at home this time around and give the Wildcats more of a run than they bargained for.

The Wildcats are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 Saturday games.  The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Saturday games.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State -4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Michigan State Spartans after failing to cover the spread in three straight games coming in and also off two straight losses to Rutgers on the road and Wisconsin at home.  It's safe to say the Spartans will be highly motivated for a victory at home here Saturday.

They host an Indiana team that is also coming off two bad losses with a 17-point home loss to Illinois and an 8-point road loss at Indiana.  But I like the spot for the Spartans more here playing at home.  After all, the Spartans are 17-2 SU & 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home meetings with Indiana.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  The Hoosiers are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Indiana is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall +10

I like the spot for the Seton Hall Pirates Saturday.  They want revenge from a 67-73 home loss to Villanova as 1-point underdogs.  Now they are catching 10 points in the rematch, and this 9-point adjustment is simply too much.

That's especially the case when you consider the closely-contested nature of this series in recent meetings.  Indeed, each of the last seven meetings between Seton Hall and Villanova have been decided by 8 points or less.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Seton Hall Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +12.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Texas A&M Aggies Saturday.  They opened this season 15-2 but have since lost seven straight.  They did cover the spread in four of those seven games with several close losses along the way as all seven losses came by 11 points or fewer.

Now the Aggies are catching 12.5 points in what is a great spot for them and a terrible one for Auburn.  The Tigers are coming off an OT loss at Arkansas that ended their 19-game winning streak.  I always like fading a team the game after a long winning streak comes to an end because their tends to be a hangover effect.

The Tigers have been overvalued quite a bit of late.  They only beat Missouri by 1 as 12.5-point favorites, Georgia by 2 as 16-point favorites and lost outright to Arkansas as favorites in three of their past five games.  They could be without starting PG Zeb Jasper, who is questionable.

Buzz Williams is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10 points or more as the coach of Texas A&M having never lost in this spot.  Bruce Pearl is 0-7 ATS after four straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more in all games as a head coach having never won in this spot.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

15* St. Bonaventure/St. Louis ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis -5

The St. Louis Billikens are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with five wins by double-digits.

The Billikens have one of the best home-court advantages in the Atlantic 10.  They are 11-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season.  That includes wins over Dayton and Richmond, two of the top teams in the conference.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home in conference play with all five wins coming by 7 points or more.

St. Bonaventure has been a massive disappointment this season and grossly overvalued.  The Bonnies are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They have gone 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road in conference play, which includes losses to Richmond by 10, George Mason by 9 and Dayton by 18.

St. Louis has won its last two home meetings with St. Bonaventure by 23 and 11 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Bonnies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  St. Bonaventure is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Billikens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with St. Louis Friday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE WEEK on Youngstown State -1.5

Youngstown State has reeled off five straight victories and is playing its best basketball of the season.  The Penguins should make easy work of Detroit at home tonight.

This is a tough spot for the Titans, who will be playing their fourth consecutive road game.  They are just 5-11 on the road this season while the Penguins are 9-5 at home.

Detroit is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers.  The Penguins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet Youngstown State Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington -1

Arizona State just went through the gauntlet.  They played Arizona (twice), UCLA and USC in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a home loss to their biggest rivals in the Wildcats.  This has all the makings of a flat spot for the Sun Devils as they won't be nearly as motivated to face Washington as they were Arizona.

This is also a tired Arizona State team playing their 4th game in 8 days.  Meanwhile, Washington will be playing just its 3rd game in 12 days.  The Huskies have the big advantage in rest and preparation and should be much bigger home favorites because of it.

That's especially the case when you consider how well the Huskies are playing right now.  They are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with both losses coming on the road to Oregon and Stanford.  The Huskies are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS their last four home games.

Arizona State is 2-8 SU in all games played away from home this season.  The Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after playing two consecutive home games.  The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. poor foul drawing teams that shoot 15 or fewer FT's per game after 15-plus games.  Arizona State is 15-34-2 ATS in its last 51 games overall.  Washington is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss.  Take Washington Thursday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego +15.5

This is a terrible spot for the St. Mary's Gaels.  They are coming off a 72-77 road loss at Santa Clara on Tuesday so they only have one day to get ready for San Diego.  They have Gonzaga on deck Saturday and will be looking ahead to that game as well.  This sandwich spot will make it very difficult for them to cover this massive 15.5-point spread.

San Diego is rested and ready to go having last played on Saturday.  They have four days to get ready for the Gaels, which is a huge advantage.  I've been impressed with the Toreros on the road this season as they have played their best basketball away from home.

Indeed, San Diego is 6-7 SU & 9-4 ATS on the road this season.  The Toreros are a perfect 6-0 ATS in conference road games not once losing by more than 15 points.  That includes a 15-point loss at San Francisco as 17.5-point dogs, an 8-point loss at BYU as 15-point dogs and a 4-point loss at Santa Clara as 9-point dogs.  They also beat Loyola-Marymount outright as 3.5-point dogs, Pacific by 8 as 2-point favorites and Pepperdine by 10 as 4-point dogs.  Bet San Diego Thursday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake -2.5

The Drake Bulldogs are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with a split with Northern Iowa as both games went to OT and an upset win over Loyola-Chicago at home.  They are 11-2 SU at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the conference.

Now the Bulldogs have their sights set on revenge from a 56-61 road loss at Missouri State in their first meeting this season.  It's amazing the Bulldogs only lost by 5 when they shot just 1-of-16 (6.2%) from 3-point range.  They have been shooting the 3 a lot better of late and clearly won't shoot that poorly again in the rematch.

Drake is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after a game where it made 20% 3-pointers or worse.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an upset loss in a conference game as a favorite.  The Bears are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Drake Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest -3

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with six wins by 8 points or more.  Their two losses came at home to Duke and on the road to Syracuse.

Now the Demon Deacons should make easy work of a struggling NC State team that is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Five of those six losses came by 7 points or more.  That includes home losses to Syracuse by 7 and Notre Dame by 12 in their last two games coming in.  This is a broken Wolfpack team right now just playing out the string.

The Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a favorite.  The Wolfpack are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.  They have almost zero home-court advantage right now with how poorly the season has gone.  Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +7.5

The SMU Mustangs are the second-best team in the American Athletic this season.  Now they get their shot to dethrone the champs in the Houston Cougars tonight.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere for the Mustangs at home, and I believe they have a real shot to pull the upset here.

Houston has been shaky in a few AAC road games this season only beating Temple by 5 and Tulsa by 2.  This will be their toughest road test yet facing an SMU team that is a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 15.9 points per game.  And the Mustangs are catching 7.5 points at home tonight.

SMU is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet SMU Wednesday.

20* Illinois/Purdue ESPN No-Brainer on Illinois +6

Illinois will be out for revenge from an 88-96 (OT) home loss to the Purdue Boilermakers on January 17th.  They got from being 1.5-point favorites in that game to 6-point underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjusment.

Keep in mind Kofi Cockburn got into foul trouble against the Boilermakers and was a non-factor.  He will be much more of a factor in the rematch.  And I think this is a game the Fighting Illini have a chance to win outright.  They are coming off a 74-57 road win in Indiana and won't be phased by this atmosphere as they are a veteran bunch.

Purdue has not been impressive at all in its last two home games.  The Boilermakers only beat Ohio State 81-78 as 9-point home favorites and Michigan 82-76 as 9.5-point favorites.  They may do enough to win tonight, too, but asking them to win by 7-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

Illinois is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games coming off three straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers.  Purdue is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games a road underdogs.  The Boilermakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Take Illinois Tuesday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +2.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Now they are ready to put an end to Auburn's 19-game winning streak tonight in front of a raucous home crowd.

Auburn has simply survived its last two road games against weak competition.  The Tigers seem to be getting bored right now.  They only won 55-54 at Missouri as 12.5-point favorites.  Then they were nearly upset in a 74-72 road win at Georgia as 16-point favorites.  Their streak comes to an end tonight as anything short of an A-effort will give them no chance of beating the Razorbacks with how well they are playing right now.

Arkansas is 17-4 SU in its last 21 home meetings with Auburn.  The Razorbacks are 13-1 SU at home this season.  The Razorbacks are 8-0 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as road favorites.  Bet Arkansas Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Temple -3.5

The Temple Owls are playing as well as anyone in the AAC right now outside Houston and SMU.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Both losses were even impressive as they only lost by 5 to Houston as 12.5-point dogs and by 8 at SMU as 9.5-point dogs, covering the spread in both.

South Florida sits at just 6-14 this season and is the worst team in the American Athletic.  The Bulls are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off four straight losses by 19 points or more.  All eight losses during this stretch came by 14 points or more.  They haven't even been competitive.

Temple is 7-0 ATS following a home win this season.  South Florida is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. teams that make 42% or less of their shots.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with Temple Monday.

15* Virginia/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +12

The Virginia Cavaliers have won three of their last four games by double-digits and are playing their best basketball of the season.  They will be able to hang with Duke, which is in a letdown spot off its huge road win over rival North Carolina on Saturday.

This has been a closely-contested series over the years, so there is value with getting 12 points with the Cavaliers tonight.  Indeed, each of the last 12 meetings between Virginia and Duke have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Cavaliers pertaining to this 12-point spread tonight.  Take Virginia Monday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +13

I love the quick revenge spot for the Pittsburgh Panthers tonight.  They just lost 71-76 as 7-point home underdogs to Virginia Tech on Saturday.  Now they get to face the Hokies just two days later here Monday and are catching 13 points on the road this time around.  It's simply too much considering the Panthers will be the more motivated team.

Each of the last four meetings were decided by 11 points or less and each of the last seven meetings were decided by 14 points or fewer.  The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The Hokies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after having lost five or six of their last seven games.  Bet Pittsburgh Monday.

15* Houston/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +6.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Houston Cougars and their 11-game winning streak.  They haven't been as dominant on the road of late.  In fact, three of their last five true road games were nail biters.  They lost 82-83 at Alabama, only beat Temple 66-61 and only beat Tulsa 66-64.

I think this will be the Cougars' toughest test since that Alabama loss.  Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last seven games overall with both losses coming on the road to Memphis by 7 and Temple by 3.  They also won at Wichita State and at East Carolina.  They were dominant in their three home games, beating SMU by 17, East Carolina by 8 and Tulsa by 21.  The Bearcats are 11-2 SU at home this season.

Plays against favorites (Houston) - in a game involving two average FT shooting teams (65% to 69%), after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 35% or less are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1997.  I think the Cougars meet their match tonight in this tough road test against the Bearcats.  Bet Cincinnati Sunday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +12.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  They have gone just 1-7 SU in their last eight games overall.  But four of their last five losses came by 11 points or fewer with the one exception being a 15-point loss to Purdue in which the Boilermakers shot lights out from 3-point range.

Minnesota will be out for revenge from a 71-81 home loss to Iowa as 7-point underdogs on January 16th.  Now the Golden Gophers are catching 12.5 points in the rematch and will be the more motivated team.

It's asking too much of Iowa to beat Minnesota by 13 points or more to beat us with the way they are playing right now.  The Hawkeyes are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They split a home-and-home with Penn State, were upset at Rutgers and lost by 10 at home to Purdue.

Minnesota has done some of its best work on the road this season.  It is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in six true road games with upset wins at Mississippi State as 11.5-point dogs and at Michigan as 13.5-point dogs.  The Golden Gophers also only lost by 2 at Michigan State as 11.5-point dogs and by 6 at Wisconsin as 11.5-point dogs.

The Golden Gophers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  Roll with Minnesota Sunday.

20* Mississippi State/Arkansas SEC No-Brainer on Arkansas -5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the hottest teams in the country.  They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes road wins over LSU by 7, Ole Miss by 9 and Georgia by 26.  They also beat Missouri by 35, South Carolina by 16, Texas A&M by 3 and West Virginia by 9 in their four home games during this stretch to improve to 12-1 at home this season.

Now the Razorbacks have their sights set on revenge from a 68-81 loss at Mississippi State in their first meeting this season.  They face a Bulldogs team that has struggled on the road this season.  Mississippi State is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season with all four losses coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 26-point loss at Texas Tech in their last road game.

Arkansas is 7-0 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two years.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Mississippi State is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +4.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the TCU Horned Frogs.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are coming off two straight upset wins over LSU at home and Oklahoma on the road.  They won't be all that motivated to beat Kansas State Saturday.

That's because they already beat Kansas State 60-57 as 3.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 4.5-point home favorites, which is too big of an adjustment.  The Wildcats will be the more motivated team out for revenge and I expect them to win this game outright.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  TCU is 8-20-2 ATS in its last 30 home games.  The Horned Frogs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Wright State +4.5

Wright State and Oakland will both be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  But the spot really favors the Raiders.  They get to stay at home after crushing Detroit 90-59 as 4.5-point favorites, which allowed them to rest their starters in the 2nd half and save up for Oakland.

Meanwhile, Oakland has to travel after a 78-87 (OT) loss at Northern Kentucky.  Going to OT will have taken a lot out of them.  All five starters played at least 38 minutes for them, while their top bench player only recorded 8 minutes.  Three starters played 45 minutes last night.

Wright State is 8-2 SU at home this season and 7-2 SU in its last nine home meetings with Oakland.  The Golden Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Wright State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +6.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies aren't playing well enough to be 6.5-point road favorites at Pittsburgh Saturday.  They are just 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall with two of those wins coming by 6 points or fewer.  Now they travel to take on a pesky Panthers team that doesn't give in at home.

Indeed, Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six home games with the two losses coming to Notre Dame by 1 and Virginia by 5.  They beat Boston College, upset Louisville and Syracuse, and covered against Jacksonville.

The Hokies are just 2-5 SU in their last seven true road games and one of those was a 3-point win over NC State.  They lost by 5 at Dayton, by 11 at Duke, by 2 at Virginia, by 5 at Boston College and by 10 at North Carolina.

Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after winning two of its last three games coming in.  The Hokies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites.  The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Duke/North Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina +3

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been a juggernaut at home this season.  They are 12-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 16.1 points per game.  They have won 11 of their 12 home games by double-digits, including 10 straight.  That includes wins over Michigan by 21, Virginia by 16, Georgia Tech by 21, Virginia Tech by 10 and NC State by 20.

Duke is getting too much respect here as a road favorite at North Carolina.  The Blue Devils have only had to play five true road games all season and are 3-2, beating Notre Dame, Louisville and Wake Forest while losing outright as favorites to Ohio State and Florida State.  This will be their toughest road test of the season to date.

North Carolina is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tar Heels are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +4.5

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a 74-82 (OT) home loss to Drake on January 22nd just two weeks ago.  The Panthers blew a double-digit lead in the 2nd half of that game and have not forgotten.  They go from being 4-point home favorites to 4.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

Drake is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall with two overtime victories.  They upset Loyola-Chicago at home which is a big reason they are getting this respect.  Then they beat a short-handed Indiana State team on the road last time out.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs.

Northern Iowa is 37-19 ATS in its last 56 road games following three straight conference wins.  Drake is 2-8 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  The Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  Drake is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State +22

The Boise State Broncos finally had their 14-game winning streak come to an end on Thursday when they lost 65-72 at Wyoming.  They had been sneaking by with six straight wins by single-digits prior to that loss.  Now I think they suffer a hangover here in their first game back since having their streak come to an end.

That's going to make it extremely difficult for the Broncos to cover this 22-point spread when they won't be motivated to do so.  Meanwhile, the San Jose State Spartans are looking at this as their biggest game of the season.  They are more than capable of giving the Broncos a run for their money tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Spartans, who have lost nine straight coming in.  But they have shown they can be competitive against some good teams on the road recently.  They lost by 20 at Fresno State, by 15 at Wyoming, by 8 at UNLV, by 16 at New Mexico and by 16 at Utah State in their last five road games.  

In fact, the Spartans have only lost one of their 10 true road games by more than 20 points all season, and that came at Texas.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 22-point spread.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State -3

I love the spot for the Colorado State Rams tonight.  They opened 16-1 this season with their lone loss coming to San Diego State on the road.  It was their worst loss of the season, and they will be out for revenge from that loss tonight.

Adding to the Rams' motivation is they are coming off consecutive losses for the first time this season to fall to 16-3.  They were upset at home by UNLV and suffered a tough OT loss at Wyoming, which is undefeated at home this season and just beat Boise State at home.  It's safe to say we're going to get a big effort from the Rams tonight, and it should be enough to cover this short number.

Colorado State is 10-1 at home this season.  San Diego State is just 1-3 SU in true road games with its lone win coming at UNLV by 7.  The Aztecs were blown out at Michigan by 14, blown out at Utah State by 18 and lost at BYU by 6.

The Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Colorado State Friday.

15* UCLA/Arizona ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -6.5

The Arizona Wildcats want revenge from their worst loss of the season.  They lost 59-75 despite being 3-point road favorites at UCLA on January 25th just over a week ago.  Now they come back as only 6.5-point home favorites, and this 3.5-point difference isn't a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage and the revenge factor.

Arizona is a perfect 11-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 29.5 points per game.  UCLA will be without Jaylen Clark and could be without Jaime Jaquez Jr., who is questionable.  They will get back Johnny Juzang but he will likely be rusty in his first game back.

UCLA is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games.  Take Arizona Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Northern Iowa -4

I like the spot for the Northern Iowa Panthers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 69-71 road loss at Bradley as 4.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  Now the Panthers are only 4-point home favorites at home in the rematch, so the books haven't even adjusted for home-court advantage.

The Braves are overvalued right now due to going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Panthers are undervalued due to going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  So it's a great 'buy low' spot on the Panthers, who may still be the best team in the MVC.  And it's a great 'sell high' spot on the Braves.

Bradley is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +10.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Arkansas Razorbacks tonight.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only wins by double-digits coming against South Carolina and Missouri at home.  But the Razorbacks are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in true road games this season with two double-digit losses and both wins by single-digits.

Now the Razorbacks find themselves as double-digit road favorites against Georgia.  The Bulldogs were last seen at home upsetting Alabama 82-76 as 14.5-point home underdogs.  And they are more than capable of giving the Razorbacks a run for their money at home tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings with the two losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  In fact, the home team hasn't lost by more than 4 points in any of the last 16 meetings, making for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Take Georgia Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +11

Purdue has been overvalued here of late.  The Boilermakers are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have only won two of their last eight games by more than 10 points and those were home games against lowly Nebraska and Northwestern.

Now the Boilermakers hit the road to take on a feisty Minnesota team that is highly motivated for a victory.  The Golden Gophers haven't lost any of their last five games by more than 11 points and they played a brutal schedule of Michigan State, Iowa, Rutgers, Ohio State and Wisconsin during this stretch.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Minnesota has beaten Purdue outright in both home meetings during this stretch.  The underdog is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  The Boilermakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites.  Roll with Minnesota Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State +5

This is a terrible spot for the Drake Bulldogs.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over Loyola-Chicago, the favorites to win the MVC coming into the season.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for them tonight as they travel to face Indiana State.

We faded Missouri State in this exact same spot last week.  The Bears were coming off an upset win over Loyola-Chicago.  They came back as 5-point favorites at Indiana State and lost outright 72-76.  I think the Bulldogs suffer the same fate tonight.

Indiana State is 7-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS at home this season.  They lost by 2 to Valpo and lost by 8 to Loyola-Chicago after blowing a double-digit lead.  They upset Bradley and upset Missouri State at home.

Drake is 0-6 ATS in road games following a win this season.  The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS in thier last 10 road games.  Drake is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Bulldogs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites.  The Sycamores are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Texas A&M Aggies. They opened 15-2 this season and have now lost four straight games all by 11 points or less, including three by 6 points or fewer to Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas. The Aggies haven't lost a game by more than 11 points all season.

Now they are catching 11.5 points against an overrated Tennessee Vols team that just suffered a gut-punching 51-52 loss at Texas. The Vols went on a 16-0 run to tie the game in the final four minutes, only to lose on a free throw. It will be hard to get back up off the mat after that kind of defeat.

Home-court advantage has not mattered in this series. In fact, the road team is 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Buzz Williams is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points as the coach of the Aggies. Roll with Texas A&M Tuesday.

20* Kansas/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State +4.5

The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from a 61-62 loss at Kansas in their first meeting this season. I believe they have a great shot at upsetting the Jayhawks in the rematch at home this time around.

Iowa State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They are back to having a huge home-court advantage and are 12-2 at home this season.

The Jayhawks have been getting too much respect for weeks. They have failed to cover four in a row and are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They were just blasted 62-80 at home by Kentucky despite being a 5-point favorite. Four of their last five wins have come by 3 points or fewer as well.

Iowa State is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog, including 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog. Kansas is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Iowa State Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +14.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the West Virginia Mountaineers tonight.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule of Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Arkansas.  You won't get them at a better value all season than you will tonight.

I love the spot for the Mountaineers as they will be out for revenge from a 68-77 home loss to Baylor on January 18th less than two weeks ago.  They were only 4.5-point home dogs in that game and are now 14.5-point road dogs, which is a 10-point adjustment.  That is too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage and it just goes to show how undervalued the Mountaineers are right now, coupled with the respect Baylor gets for winning the title last year.

Baylor hasn't won any of its last 15 meetings with West Virginia by more than 12 points.  That makes for a 15-0 system backing the Mountaineers pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.  The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet West Virginia Monday.

20* Marquette/Providence Big East No-Brainer on Providence -2.5

The Providence Friars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 17-2 this season despite being an underdog time after time.  That includes their 65-62 win at Xavier as 7.5-point road dogs last time out.

Now the Friars will be out for revenge from one of their two losses this season.  Not only was it a loss, and it was an ugly 56-88 blowout road loss at Marquette.  The Friars have not forgotten, and now it's their turn for revenge at home this time around.

Marquette is getting a lot of respect due to going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Golden Eagles.  They go from +1 at home against Providence to only +2.5 on the road, a 1.5-point adjustment which isn't big enough for home-court advantage.  Especially considering Providence is 12-0 at home this season and will be motivated to keep that perfect mark intact.

Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a same-season loss, including 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or fewer.  The Friars are 9-0 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The favorite is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Providence Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oregon State +12.5

The Oregon State Beavers are undervalued right now due to their 3-14 record this season.  That has been evident with their 4-1-1 ATS run in their last six games overall.  And now they are catching too many points against rival Oregon tonight.

Oregon beat Oregon State 78-76 as 4.5-point road favorites in their first meeting.  Now the books have adjusted this number 8 points to 12.5, which is way too much.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Ducks after recent upset wins over UCLA and USC.  They have no business being this big of a favorite against the revenge-minded Beavers.

Each of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 15 points or fewer, so these games have all been competitive.  Oregon State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after two straight games with 5 or fewer steals.  The Beavers are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after covering four or five of their last six ATS.  The Beavers are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford +12

Stanford is playing too well right now to be catching 12 points from UCLA.  The Cardinal are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their only losses coming by 4 at Colorado, by 3 at Washington, by 7 to Texas and to Arizona.  They upset USC twice during this stretch as well.

UCLA is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They will be without Jaylen Clark and could be without Johnny Juzang, who is questionable in quarantine.  Either way, the Cardinal have the firepower to stay within 12 points of the Bruins even if they were at full strength.

Stanford is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with UCLA with the lone loss coming by 7 points.  The Cardinal are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on UCF +7.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Houston Cougars.  They have won nine straight games and have yet to lose in AAC action.  But they only won by 5 at Temple and by 2 at Tulsa in two of their three road games during this stretch, so they are vulnerable away from home.

UCF has been great at home this season and will give the Cougars a run for their money tonight.  They are 8-2 SU at home with upset wins over Michigan and Memphis and a 3-point loss to Oklahoma.  They are more than capable of pulling the upset, and at the very least staying within this 7.5-point spread.

UCF is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after failing to cover four or five of its last six games.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Knights, who will be more motivated for this game than any other game this season.  It will be an electric atmosphere in Orlando tonight with a Top 10 team coming to town as this is one of the most underrated fan bases in the country.  Take UCF Saturday.

20* Tennessee/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas -3.5

The Texas Longhorns hit a rough patch to start Big 12 play but have since rebounded nicely.  They are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 73-50 win as 2.5-point favorites at TCU.  And I look for them to crush the Tennessee Vols at home tonight.

The Volunteers have been mental midgets on the road this season.  They are 1-3 SU in their last four true road games with their only victory coming at Vanderbilt.  They lost by 5 at Alabama, by 12 at LSU and by 28 at Kentucky.  Texas is on those teams' level.  The Longhorns are 12-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming by a single point.

Tennessee is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Vols are 12-32 ATS in their last 44 road games off three straight conference wins.  Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  The Longhorns should be bigger home favorites tonight.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Fresno State +1.5

I love the spot for Fresno State tonight.  The Bulldogs will be out for revenge from a 55-65 road loss at Boise State as 4.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they have only adjusted this line 3 points total for flipping home courts, which isn't enough when you consider how good the Bulldogs have been at home this season.

Indeed, Fresno State is 9-0 SU & 7-0 ATS at home this season.  The Bulldogs are outscoring opponents by 16.6 points per game at home behind suffocating defense, holding opponents to just 53.0 points per game and 37.1% shooting.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Boise State, which has won 13 straight games coming in.  They have been fortunate in close games winning four straight games by 6 points or fewer coming in and five straight by 8 or fewer.  I think their luck runs out tonight.  They are a tired team playing in their 4th different city in 9 days.

The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  They should not be underdogs to the Broncos tonight.  Bet Fresno State Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +16.5

The UCLA Bruins are in a huge letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 75-59 home victory over Arizona on Tuesday.  Now they have just one day to get ready for California, and they won't be that motivated to beat a Golden Bears team they have already beaten once on the road.

That's going to make it hard for the Bruins to cover this 16.5-point spread when they're lacking the motivation to do so.  Meanwhile, California wants revenge from that 52-60 home loss as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now this number has been adjusted 8 points for home-court advantage, which is way too much given the spot.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Golden Bears after going 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have faced a brutal schedule during this stretch with three of the losses coming to USC, UCLA and Arizona at home and Washington and Washington State on the road.  Only one of the five losses came by more than 14 points.  California is rested and ready to go having last played on Sunday, so they have had three days off to get ready for the Bruins.

The Golden Bears are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  California is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  The Golden Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss.  California is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  UCLA is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  Six of the last seven meetings in this series were decided by 15 points or less.  Bet California Thursday.

20* Purdue/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa +2.5

Iowa wants revenge from a 77-70 road loss at Purdue in their first meeting this season.  The Hawkeyes didn't have their best player in Keegan Murray (22.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG) for that contest, so having him healthy for the rematch will make all the difference.  It was actually impressive they kept that game competitive without him.

Iowa is 11-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Illinois.  The Hawkeyes are stomping teams at home this season, outscoring them by 22.5 points per game.  Purdue is just 2-2 SU in true road games this season with upset losses to Indiana and Rutgers.  Winning on the road in the Big Ten is tougher than any other conference in the country.

Purdue is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Boilermakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  Iowa is 33-15-3 ATS in its last 51 home games, including 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog.  The home team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Take Iowa Thursday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +10

Buzz Williams is turning around this Texas A&M program just as he has done in his previous stops at Marquette and Virginia Tech.  He is easily one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He has the Aggies sitting at 15-4 this season with three losses by 6 points or less and an 11-point loss to Wisconsin.

The Aggies should not be catching double-digits against LSU, which is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three games overall, including a 14-point loss at Tennessee and an upset home loss by 7 to Arkansas as a 6.5-point favorite.  Two of LSU's top three scorers in Xavier Pinson (10.9 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Darius Days (13.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) are both questionable tonight.  I like the Aggies to stay within this number even if both guys play.

LSU is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -1.5

I love the spot for the West Virginia Mountaineers tonight.  They are coming off three straight losses to the three best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas, Baylor and Texas Tech.  They will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight, and they take a big step down in class against Oklahoma.

The Sooners continue to get too much respect from the books.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are just 2-5 in Big 12 play this season with both wins coming at home against Kansas State and Iowa State in which they needed late surges to put those games away.  They are 1-3 SU in true road games this season with their lone win coming at UCF by 3.

West Virginia is 10-1 SU at home this season and has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The only loss came to Baylor and they were competitive for 40 minutes in that game.  The Mountaineers are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 home games after going over the total in three or more consecutive games.  West Virginia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Roll with West Virginia Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +8.5

The Providence Friars have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 16-2 this season which includes outright upset road wins at Wisconsin, at Connecticut and at DePaul.  So they have proven they can travel and beat great teams.

Now the Friars are catching 8.5 points against a Xavier team that has been overvalued for weeks.  The Musketeers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone cover coming in a road win at lowly Butler.

Providence is 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Xavier with only two losses by more than 6 points.  The Friars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Providence is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Friars are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Providence Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +13.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Auburn Tigers.  I cashed in Auburn in their 80-71 victory over Kentucky on Saturday for their 8th consecutive ATS cover.  But now the Tigers are in a massive letdown spot today off that Kentucky win as they travel to face one of the worst teams in the SEC in the Missouri Tigers.

Well, Missouri was one of the worst teams, but they are as improved as anyone in the conference over the last couple weeks.  Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall with a 92-86 upset home win over Alabama as 14-point dogs, a 3-point loss to Texas A&M as 5-point home dogs, a 78-53 win at Ole Miss as 7.5-point dogs and only a 10-point loss at Alabama as 18-point dogs.

Plays against any team (Auburn) - an explosive offensive team scoring 78 PPG or more against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Missouri is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as home underdogs.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Don't be surprised to see Auburn fall flat on its face tonight and lose this game outright.  Bet Missouri Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +12.5

Southern Illinois is much better than its 10-9 record would indicate and should not be catching 12.5 points against the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers tonight.  In fact, all nine of their losses have come by 12 points or fewer this season.  All four of their conference losses have come by 8 points or fewer, including three by 5 points or less to Missouri State, Northern Iowa and Drake, three of the top teams in the conference.

Loyola-Chicago has been grossly overvalued of late.  They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Bradley as a 13-point home favorite and needed OT to beat Valpo as a 15.5-point home favorite.  They needed a 15-point comeback to win at Indiana State, and they lost outright as an 8-point home favorite to Missouri State.  Their lone blowout win during this stretch came against lowly Evansville, which is getting blown out by everyone.

The Ramblers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games.  The Salukis are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Roll with Southern Illinois Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +14.5

The Baylor Bears have been overvalued to open Big 12 play this year due to winning the title last year and coming into conference play unbeaten.  They have gone 5-2 SU but 3-4 ATS with all five of their wins coming by 14 points or less.  They even lost outright to Texas Tech as an 11.5-point home favorite and outright to Oklahoma State as a 14-point home favorite.

Conversely, Kansas State has been grossly undervalued in conference play.  The Wildcats are just 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS.  Amazingly, all five of their losses have come by 13 points or less with four of those losses by 3 points or fewer.  They have been extremely competitive in conference play.  They upset Texas Tech by 11, went on the road and upset Texas as 10.5-point dogs and nearly upset Kansas in a 3-point loss as 6-point home dogs.  They only lost by 2 at Oklahoma as 7.5-point dogs and by 3 at West Virginia as 9-point dogs.

Kansas State is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +6

The Missouri State Bears are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 79-69 upset win at Loyola-Chicago as 8-point underdogs to hand the Ramblers their first conference loss of the season.  They are their biggest competition to win the Missouri Valley.

Indiana State is no pushover.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sycamores, who have lost four straight coming in all by 8 points or less.  Three of those came to three of the top teams in the conference in Northern Iowa, Loyola-Chicago and Southern Illinois.  They will be competitive with the Bears tonight as well.

The underdog is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Sycamores are 6-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS at home this season.  Take Indiana State Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following two straight blowout road losses at Miami and at Wake Forest.  Look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight as they return home where they have been dominant all season.

Indeed, the Tar Heels are 9-0 SU & 5-4 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.9 points per game.  They have opened ACC play by crushing Virginia by 16 and Georgia Tech by 23 at home.  Look for them to easily cover this 4-point spread against Virginia Tech.

The Hokies are struggling right now.  They have gone just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are coming off an upset loss at Boston College.  The Hokies are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five true road games with their only win coming by 3 at lowly NC State.

North Carolina is 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Virginia Tech with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  The Hokies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games when playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  The Tar Heels are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis -9

I love the spot for Saint Louis today. The Billikens will be out for revenge from an 85-91 upset road loss at UMass on Thursday. Now they get to host the Minutemen here just three days later.

Saint Louis is 8-3 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.3 points per game. Their three losses came to Auburn by 4, Belmont by 5 and UAB by 5. Those are three great teams.

UMass is 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in true road games this season with multiple losses by double-digits. I think the Billikens get them by double-digits today given the revenge spot.

Saint Louis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after losing two of its last three games coming in. The Minutemen are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Billikens are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Saint Louis Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +13

The Northwestern Wildcats have been competitive despite going just 1-5 SU in their last six games overall. All five losses came by 8 points or fewer. In fact, they haven't a single game by more than 8 points all season.

They won't start today as they keep this game against Purdue competitive for 40 minutes. The Boilermakers have been consistently overvalued since Big Ten play started. They are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Northwestern has played Purdue tough in two straight meetings the last two seasons. The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 8-point road dogs last year and by 3 as 5.5-point home dogs two years ago. Purdue could be without its best player in Jaden Ivey (16.7 PPG), who is questionable with a hip injury. Take Northwestern Sunday.

15* UNC/Wake Forest ACC ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest -1.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Steve Forbes has this program on the rise as the Demon Deacons are 15-4 SU & 11-8 ATS this season.

Wake Forest has been particularly tough to tame at home, going 10-1 SU while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. Their lone home loss came to Duke. They are coming off two straight impressive road wins at Virginia and Georgia Tech.

North Carolina has been dominant at home as well, but terrible on the road. The Tar Heels are 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in all games played away from home with their three wins coming against Charleston, Georgia Tech and Boston College. They lost badly to Purdue, Tennessee and Kentucky on neutrals. They also were upset at Notre Dame and at Miami by 28 last time out.

The Tar Heels are 0-9 ATS in their last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game. North Carolina is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 road games. Roll with Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +19.5

East Carolina is one of the most underrated teams in the American Athletic Conference this season. The Pirates are 11-6 SU & 10-7 ATS with all six losses coming by 10 points or less.

Now the Pirates are catching a whopping 19.5 points to Houston and should stay within this number with ease. The Cougars are overrated due to an eight-game winning streak against very weak competition. And note that seven of those eight wins came by 19 points or less with the lone exception being a non-conference home game against Texas State.

Lafayette only lost by 15 at Houston, Temple only lost by 5, South Florida lost by 17, Wichita State lost by 10, Tulsa lost by 2 and South Florida lost by 19 in the rematch. That's a very soft schedule, and you could argue that East Carolina is the best team Houston has faced since losing to Alabama prior to this eight-game winning streak.

Much worse ECU teams have given Houston problems the last two seasons. ECU won outright 82-73 as a 16.5-point home dog last season and only lost by 10 as a 13-point dog in 2020. The Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Take East Carolina Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami -2.5

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their lone loss coming at Florida State by a final of 64-65.

Now the Hurricanes will be out for revenge from that defeat. They are coming off one of their best performances of the season, an 85-57 home win over North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs. They also recently beat Duke outright as 15-point road underdogs.

Florida State is 2-3 SU in true road games this season with narrow wins over Syracuse by 5 and NC State by 2, and blowout losses at Florida by 16, at Purdue by 28 and at Wake Forest by 22. This is a huge letdown spot for the Seminoles off an upset win over Duke at home and having already beaten Miami once this season.

Florida State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after going over the total in its previous game. Miami is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games. Bet Miami Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Auburn SEC No-Brainer on Auburn -3.5

The Auburn Tigers may be the best team in the country. They are 17-1 SU & 14-4 ATS this season with their only loss coming to UConn in double-overtime. They have won and covered seven straight games coming into this matchup with Kentucky.

It's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at Auburn with the Wildcats coming to town today. The Tigers are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20 points per game.

Kentucky has been great at home as well but mediocre on the road. The Wildcats are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season with losses to Notre Dame and LSU and their two wins coming against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

Auburn has won its last two home meetings with Kentucky as short favorites by 7 and 9 points. They are a short favorite again here and this may be the best team in Auburn history. Kentucky is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following three consecutive conference games. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. The Tigers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. Roll with Auburn Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +6

The Memphis Tigers are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-7 SU & 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes upset losses to Iowa State as an 11.5-point favorite, Georgia as an 11.5-point favorite, Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite, Ole Miss as a 10-point favorite, Tulane as a 6-point favorite, UCF as a 1-point favorite and ECU as a 7-point favorite.

A big reason for the Tigers' struggles is they are short-handed right now with seven players listed as questionable, doubtful or out on the injury report.  They should not be 6-point favorites over SMU, which is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall and playing as well as anyone in the American Athletic Conference right now.

Recent head-to-head history also shows there's value with SMU +6 tonight.  In fact, each of the last four meetings and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or less.  The Mustangs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  Bet SMU Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +22

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Bulldogs.  They have lost six straight while going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But one of their best performances was a 77-92 loss at Kentucky as similar 22.5-point dogs, and I fully expect them to cover this 22-point spread at Auburn.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers.  They have gone 13-0 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall with six straight covers.  That includes big wins over LSU, Florida and Alabama during this stretch.  Now the Tigers have a huge game on deck against Kentucky on Saturday and will be looking ahead.  They won't be giving Georgia their full attention, making it very difficult to cover this 22-point spread as a result.

Georgia is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog.  That includes an outright win as a 9-point dog at Auburn last season.  Bet Georgia Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -3.5

The Creighton Blue Jays are highly motivated for a victory after two straight road losses against arguably the two best teams in the Big East in Villanova and Xavier.  They have played three straight on the road while also upsetting Marquette.  

The Bluejays were last seen at home throttling Villanova 79-59 on December 17th, so they haven't played at home in over a month.  It's safe to say they will be excited to be back home in front of their fans and one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

St. John's is 0-4 in all games played away from home this season compared to 10-1 at home.  Creighton is 7-1 SU in its last eight home meetings with the Red Storm and only has to cover a short 3.5-point spread here.  

The Red Storm are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  St. John's is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take Creighton Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +8.5

What more does Iowa State have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  Until they do, we'll keep cashing tickets on them.  They are 14-3 this season with the three losses coming to Baylor by 5 as 7.5-point dogs, Kansas by 1 as 13-point road dogs and Oklahoma as 6-point road dogs after blowing a 10-point lead in the second half.

The losses are impressive, and the upset wins keep stacking up.  They upset Xavier as 9-point dogs, Memphis as 11.5-point dogs, Creighton as 5.5-point dogs, Iowa as 5-point dogs and Texas as 2.5-point dogs.  They also beat Texas Tech 51-47 in the first meeting as 5-point home favorites, and now the oddsmakers have made a 13.5-point adjustment by making the Red Raiders an 8.5-point home favorite.

Texas Tech is getting a lot of respect in the betting markets due to recent upset wins over Kansas as 7-point dogs and Baylor as 11.5-point dogs.  But they fell flat on their faces last time in in a 51-62 road loss at Kansas State as 4.5-point favorites, handing the Wildcats their first Big 12 win of the season.  They should maybe be favored in the rematch with the Cyclones at home, but they should not be this big of favorites.

The Cyclones are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.  Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after covering four or five of its last six games ATS.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on VCU -2

Davidson has won 13 straight games coming into this showdown with VCU.  But I think VCU is favored for good reason tonight and that streak comes to an end in what will be Davidson's stiffest challenge during this winning streak.

Davidson has played just four true road games during this streak with wins against overmatched competition in Charlotte, Northeastern, St. Joseph's and Richmond.  The win over Richmond was decent and came by only 3 points, but VCU is better than that overrated Richmond squad.

The Rams are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They upset Syracuse, only lost to Baylor by 8 as 13.5-point dogs, only lost to UConn by 7 as 8-point dogs and lost at St. Bonaventure.  So all of their losses have come on the road during this stretch against very good teams in Baylor, UConn & St. Bonaventure.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  VCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take VCU Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +9.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions have been grossly undervalued in Big Ten play of late.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by 7 to Purdue as 9.5-point underdogs.  They upset Indiana as 5-point home dogs, upset Northwestern as 8-point road dogs and crushed Rutgers by 17 as 2-point home favorites.

Now I love the spot for the Nittany Lions as they won't be having a letdown.  Instead, they will be out for revenge from a 64-76 home loss to Ohio State as 5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching 9.5 points in the rematch.  Ohio State isn't going to shoot as well as it did in the first meeting, making 50.9% overall and 12-of-27 (44.4%) from 3-point range.

The Buckeyes aren't playing well enough to justify being 9.5-point favorites here.  They are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed OT to beat Nebraska as a 9.5-point road favorite, got crushed by 16 at Indiana, only won by 8 at home over Northwestern as 7.5-point favorites and lost by 10 at Wisconsin as 3.5-point dogs.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking to much here.

Penn State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  The Nittany Lions are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

15* Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +16.5

UCLA has not been sharp since returning from a COVID pause.  They were off from December 11th until January 6th.  They have returned and gone 0-3 ATS, winning by 18 over Long Beach State as a 26-point favorite and winning by 8 at California as an 8.5-point favorite.

Then on Thursday the Bruins lost outright as 9.5-point home favorites to Oregon.  The Bruins are playing without any home fans right now, so they have almost zero home-court advantage.  That isn't being factored into their lines enough.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Oregon State after a disastrous start to the season after making the Elite 8 last year.  The Beavers have been consistently undervalued in recent weeks, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Utah by 12 as 4.5-point home dogs, only lost by 2 to Oregon as 4.5-point home dogs and only lost by 10 at USC as 14.5-point road dogs.  If they can hang with those teams, they can certainly hang with UCLA tonight.

Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 5 points or less.  In fact, UCLA hasn't beaten Oregon State by more than 7 points in any of the last seven meetings.  The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +11

Houston should not be a double-digit favorite at Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They consistently exceed expectations at home, and I fully expect them to give the Cougars a run for their money tonight.

Tulsa comes in highly motivated for a victory as it is coming off three straight losses to very good SMU, Memphis and Temple teams all by 5 points or less.  In fact, seven of their eight losses this season have come by 7 points or fewer, so they are undervalued just based on their record.

Houston is overvalued after winning six straight coming in, but three of those wins came by 11 points or fewer and the others were against overmatched Lafayette, Texas State and South Florida teams.  Tulsa is 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS in its last 13 home meetings with Houston.  That includes outright upsets as 9.5-point dogs and 6-point dogs in their last two home meetings.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as home underdogs.  Tulsa is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4 or more boards per game than their opponents.   Take Tulsa Saturday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +9.5

Loyola-Chicago is grossly overvalued right now due to their eight-game winning streak.  That includes a 12-point home win over Indiana State as 18-point favorites.  Now the Sycamores will be out for revenge, and asking the Ramblers to go on the road and beat them by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Loyola-Chicago has had some very good luck in close games recently.  They beat San Francisco by 5, needed OT to beat Bradley as a 13-point home favorite and needed OT to beat Valparaiso as a 15.5-point home favorite in their last three games coming in.  Their luck runs out today, and at the very least the Sycamores cover.

I have been very impressed with Indiana State in MVC play this season.  They played Loyola-Chicago tough in that first meeting, upset Bradley 76-71 as 3.5-point home underdogs and took Northern Iowa to OT as 12-point road underdogs.  Those are three of the best teams in MVC this season and arguably the two best in UNI and Loyola, so they have proven they belong.

Indiana State is 6-0 at home this season and winning by 22.7 points per game.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS in Saturday home games over the last three seasons.  Indiana State is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall, including 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

20* Louisville/Pittsburgh ACC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +5

The Pittsburgh Panthers have been grossly undervalued for over a month.  They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with eight games decided by 4 points or fewer.  So that fact alone says there's value with the Panthers catching 5 points at home today.

I backed Pittsburgh as a double-digit dog at Louisville in their 72-75 loss on January 5th.  Now I'm back on them again in this great revenge spot here just 10 days later and at home this time around.  Louisville is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cardinals are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  

They lost outright to DePaul as 7.5-point home favorites, outright to Western Kentucky by 10 as favorites, and by 16 as 6-point home favorites to NC State last time out among some of their worst performances.  It really shows how bad this team really is, and each of their last three wins came by 4 points or less.

The Cardinals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Take Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Texas/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have been grossly underrated all season.  And they are getting disrespected again here as home underdogs to the Texas Longhorns.  This is a game I fully expect them to win outright.

The Cyclones opened 12-0 with several outright upsets as underdogs.  They have opened 1-3 SU in Big 12 play but are 2-2 ATS.  They only lost by 5 to Baylor as 7.5-point dogs and by 1 at Kansas as 13-point dogs, which are arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 and shows what they are capable of.   They also beat Texas Tech at home.  Now they are highly motivated for a win after opening 1-3 in conference.

Texas is 3-1 in conference but has played a much softer schedule.  Their only road win came at Kansas State and the Wildcats were missing a ton of players due to COVID.  They are also one of the worst teams in the Big 12.  The Longhorns lost by 13 at Oklahoma State, another team that isn't very good.  And they beat short-handed West Virginia and Oklahoma at home.

Texas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight vs. teams that average 9 or more steals per game.  Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. teams that win more than 80% of their games.  The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +8

I love the spot for the Northwestern Wildcats today.  They will be out for revenge from a 67-73 home loss to Michigan State on January 2nd.  Now they get to face the Spartans less than two weeks later and are catching 8 points this time around after catching only 3 points at home.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have lost four straight coming in but all four losses have come by 8 points or fewer.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spartans, who have won nine straight coming in.

But the Spartans are starting to get a little lazy and failing to meeting expectations.  They are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their only cover coming in that 6-point win at Northwestern as 3-point favorites.  They only beat High Point by 13 as 22.5-point home favorites, Nebraska by 12 as 14.5-point home favorites and Minnesota by 2 as 11.5-point home favorites.

The Spartans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

15* Michigan/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Michigan Wolverines.  They are off to a disappointing 7-6 start this season and coming off upset road losses to both UCF and Rutgers.  But they have had the last nine days off to get healthy, rested and ready to take on Illinois tonight.  

I fully expect a big effort from the Wolverines, which should be enough to cover this inflated 10-point spread.  Michigan has been favored in all 13 games this season, and now they are not only an underdog for the first time, but a double-digit underdog at that.  This fact alone shows you there's value with Michigan and we are getting them at their best price of the season.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois.  The Fighting Illini have gone 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss to Arizona.  But they have feasted on a weak schedule for the most part and five of the 10 wins have come by 10 points or fewer.  That includes a 10-point win at Nebraska as 12.5-point favorites last time out.  And they needed a late surge to beat Maryland by 12 in their previous game at home.

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Wolverines have the size inside to match up with Kofi Cockburn.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Michigan Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +8.5

The Rice Owls are a veteran team that returned all five starters this season and has impressive me.  The Owls are 9-5 this season and coming off a win over the favorite to win Conference USA in UAB outright as 10.5-point underdogs.  I fully expect them to hang with Western Kentucky tonight.

Western Kentucky was a great team the last few years but lost a lot of talent from those teams.  They are just 9-6 this season, but they continue to get a lot of respect because they have been a good basketball program.  They should not be 8.5-point home favorites against Rice tonight.

Rice is +5.4 points per game this season based on what their opponents normally average on offense and give up on defense.  Western Kentucky is +6.6 points per game based on the same criteria.  So the Hilltoppers would be a 1-point favorite on a neutral, and they don't have a 7.5-point home-court advantage.  There's value on the Owls tonight.

Three of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, and those were much better WKU teams and much worse Rice teams than these 2021-22 versions.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hilltoppers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Western Kentucky is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  Roll with Rice Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on North Texas -3

North Texas is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming to UAB, a team it is vying for a Conference USA title win.  That includes upset wins over Drake as 5-point dogs and Wichita State as 4-point dogs on the highway.

Marshall has been overrated all season, going 7-8 SU & 3-10 ATS in lined games.  The Thundering Herd are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with five straight losses by double-digits.  That includes home losses to Northern Iowa by 15 as 2.5-point favorites and Florida Atlantic by 13 as 5-point favorites.

The numbers show North Texas is by far the superior team and should be a bigger favorite here.  North Texas is +12 points per game based on what their opponents normally average on offense and allow on defense this season.  Marshall is only +0.4 points per game based on the same criteria, so North Texas is 12 points better on a neutral.  The Mean Green have played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while the Thundering Herd have played the 111th.

North Texas is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  The Mean Green are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 75 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Thundering Herd are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Mean Green.  Take North Texas Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State +7.5

This is the perfect spot to fade the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  They are coming off two straight shocking upsets of the two favorites to win the Big 12 in Kansas and Baylor.  They even handed the Bears their first loss of the season on Tuesday.

Now the Red Raiders are feeling fat and happy and I expect them to fall flat on their faces tonight.  This is a great time to 'sell high' on them here, and also a great time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who have lost three of their last four to three of the best teams in the country in Houston, Kansas and West Virginia.  They also upset Texas 64-51 as 3-point dogs for their lone win during this stretch of four straight games as underdogs.

Oklahoma State has had Texas Tech's number.  The Cowboys are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with three outright upsets as underdogs.  That includes an 82-77 win as 8-point road dogs at Texas Tech last season.

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a conference loss.  Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after covering four or five of their last six ATS.  Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after winning four of its last five games.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Cowboys.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State +12.5

The Drake Bulldogs were one of the best covering teams in the country over the last few seasons.  But the odds have clearly caught up with them this season as they are 11-5 SU but just 3-10 ATS in their 13 lined games.  And they continue to be overvalued in conference play, including here tonight against Illinois State.

Drake is 0-3 ATS in conference play this season beating Valpo by 7 as 13.5-point home favorites, losing by 5 at Missouri State as 4-point dogs and only beating Evansville by 1 as double-digit road favorites.  Now they are overvalued once again as 12.5-point home favorites against Illinois State.

Illinois State is playing well right now going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games.  The Redbirds beat Ball State by 21 as 5.5-point home favorites and UTSA by 17 as 9-point home favorites.  Then they went on the road at Wisconsin and only lost by 4 as 17-point underdogs before losing by 5 at Valpo in OT as 5.5-point dogs.  That effort against Wisconsin says all you need to know about their potential.

The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Illinois State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 0-8 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet Illinois State Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joseph's +9.5

St. Joseph's is battle-tested in its last four games.  The Hawks are 3-1 ATS during that stretch.  They won 68-49 as 1.5-point home dogs to Temple, only lost 73-77 at Bradley as 4.5-point dogs and crushed Richmond 83-56 as 11.5-point road dogs in one of the most impressive performances of any team all season.

Predictably, the Hawks laid an egg in their next game and lost 73-88 as 4.5-point home dogs to Davidson.  Well, Davidson might be the best team in the Atlantic 10 this season.  Now the Hawks have had a full week to get ready for Rhode Island.

This is a Rhode Island team that lost by 14 at Providence, only beat Sacred Heart by 10 at home, beat a bad Wisconsin-Milwaukee team on the road, only beat American International 70-55 at home and lost at Davidson in its last five games.  They have had the much easier schedule of late, and they should not be laying nearly double-digits against St. Joe's tonight.

St. Joseph's is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 road games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  Rhode Island is 24-48 ATS in its last 72 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games coming in.  The Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with St. Joseph's Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier -1

I love the spot for Xavier tonight.  This will be their 2nd meeting with Villanova in their last three games.  They lost 58-71 at Villanova, and now they will be out for revenge at home this time around.  I fully expect them to get their revenge with a win and cover.

Xavier has gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is legitimately one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a perfect 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 21.6 points per game.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are 11-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road.  That includes losses at Baylor by 21 and at Creighton by 20.

The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  The Musketeers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The favorite is 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -6.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes.  They have won nine straight coming in and with almost all those wins at home.  But they did go on the road and beat Duke outright as a 15-point favorite on Saturday for their signature victory.  Now this is an obvious letdown spot for the Hurricanes at Florida State tonight.

Florida State got back on track with a 79-70 home win over Louisville last time out.  They are bitter rivals with Miami and would love to end their nine-game winning streak.  I think they do so in blowout fashion as they simply own the Hurricanes.

Indeed, the Seminoles have won seven straight meetings with the Hurricanes and are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They have won the last three meetings all by 17 points or more.  The Seminoles are 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the Hurricanes with all five wins coming by 6 points or more.

Florida State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 ACC home games.  The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Seven of Miami's last nine wins have come by single-digits with the only exceptions being home wins over Lipscomb and Stetson in which they failed to cover the spread.  Their luck runs out tonight in this obvious letdown spot.  Take Florida State Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +10.5

Pittsburgh has been grossly undervalued for weeks after a slow start to the season.  They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two non-covers coming by a combined 4 points.  Their seven covers have come by a combined 51 points.

Amazingly, Pitt has played in nine straight games decided by single-digits, including eight of those by 4 points or less.  That includes games against Minnesota, Virginia, St. John's, Notre Dame, Louisville and Boston College.  So they have been competitive against some great competition and should not be catching double-digits against Syracuse tonight.

Syracuse is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall and has lost five of its last seven with its only wins coming at home against Brown and Cornell.  Every time they have faced a decent team recently they have lost.  They should not be laying double-digits as they sit at just 7-8 on the season and this is one of the worst Syracuse teams in recent memory.

Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog over the last two seasons.  Syracuse is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Rutgers after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  All five wins came at home.  Rutgers is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season and losing by 13.5 points per game on average.  That includes outright losses to DePaul and UMass as favorites.

Penn State has covered three straight with upset wins over Indiana at home and Northwestern on the road.  Their only loss came by 7 as 9.5-point home dogs to Purdue, which is one of the best teams in the country.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Roll with Penn State Tuesday.

20* Cincinnati/Memphis ABC No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5

The Memphis Tigers have nine players either out or questionable on their injury report with all of them legitimate injuries instead of COVID.  That includes Duren (11.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Bates (10.8 PPG), Nolley II (9.2 PPG) and Lomax (5.9 PPG) among others.

The Tigers have already been one of the most overvalued teams in the country this season.  I faded them with success last time out with Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane only lost 64-67 as 13-point road underdogs.  And I'm fading them again today with the Cincinnati Bearcats catching too many points at Memphis.

The Bearcats are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall.  That includes a 77-60 win over SMU as 2.5-point home favorites last time out in one of their most complete games of the season.  Unlike Memphis, they are as healthy as they have been all season entering AAC play here and ready to make some noise in the conference.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less.  In fact, Memphis has only beaten Cincinnati by more than 6 points once in the last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Bearcats pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet Cincinnati Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia Tech +1

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall.  But they have been much more competitive of late now that they have gotten several key players back from injury.  They are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games beating Georgia State by 10, losing at Louisville by 3 and losing at Duke by 12 as 18.5-point dogs.

I think this is a great spot to back the Yellow Jackets as they return home and are highly motivated for a victory.  It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Notre Dame, which has won four straight coming in against mostly weak competition.  The exception was the upset 78-73 home win over North Carolina on Wednesday, which makes the Fighting Irish primed for a letdown.

Notre Dame is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games this season with its only win coming at lowly Pittsburgh by a single point.  They lost by double-digits at Illinois and at Boston College.  The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game.  The Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Tennessee/LSU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on LSU -1.5

The LSU Tigers are 13-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to the Auburn Tigers, who are one of the best teams in the country.  Not only are the Tigers winning, they are dominating as they are outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game on the season.

The Tigers have been at their best at home where the are 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS while winning by a whopping 29.6 points per game.  That includes a 65-60 home win over Kentucky last time out.  If they can beat Kentucky, they can definitely take down Tennessee.

The Vols have some shaky performances lately with a loss to Texas Tech and a loss to Alabama as well as needing overtime to beat Ole Miss as 17-point home favorites last time out.  I think I've seen a lot more holes in Tennessee's game than LSU, which is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency.  The Vols struggle to score at times which really showed in the Texas Tech and Ole Miss games.

LSU is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Tennessee with all three wins coming outright as underdogs, including two by double-digits.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +6

Northern Iowa is a sleeper to win the Missouri Valley Conference.  The Panthers opened 4-7 this season against a brutal schedule and missing some key players early.  But now they are full strength and playing up to their potential with this veteran team that returned all five starters.

Indeed, the Panthers have opened 2-1 in MVC play with their only loss coming 69-71 at Bradley back on December 1st.  They have won both of their MVC games in blowout fashion in January by beating Evansville 83-61 and Valparaiso 92-65.  Now they are ready to take down Missouri State.

The Bears have opened conference season 2-1 as well with a bad 74-79 loss at Illinois State as 6.5-point favorites.  They have since beaten 61-56 and Bradley 71-69 with a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  I think this is a letdown spot for them off that Bradley win at the buzzer.

The Panthers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 meetings with the Bears.  The road team is 32-15-1 ATS in the last 48 meetings.  Northern Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Dana Ford is 1-9 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game as the coach of Missouri State.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +14

The Bradley Braves are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The three losses all came by 5 points or less at Toledo by 2, at Indiana State by 5 and at home against Missouri State by 2.  This team is playing too well right now to be catching 14 points from Loyola-Chicago.

This is a bad spot for the Ramblers.  They are coming off a 79-74 win over San Francisco on a neutral on Thursday.  So they have had just one day to get ready for Bradley and there is travel involved.  The tough spot will make it very difficult for them to get margin on the Braves today as they are a tired team right now.

Each of the last nine meetings in this series were decided by 13 points or fewer.  That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Braves pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Bradley Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +7.5

Nebraska has impressed me in its last two games taking Ohio State to overtime as 9.5-point underdogs and covering in a 12-point loss at Michigan State as 14.5-point dogs.  The Huskers have opened 0-4 in Big Ten play against a brutal schedule, but now they have a great chance to get their first conference win of the season, and at the very least stay inside this inflated number.

This is a terrible spot for Rutgers.  They are coming off a historic win over Michigan 75-67 at home last time out as 3.5-point underdogs.  But that is a down Michigan team this year.  And this is clearly a letdown spot for them now with lowly Nebraska coming to town.

Nebraska has been a thorn in Rutgers' side in recent meetings.  They only lost 72-75 in their last trip to Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs.  And they won outright 72-51 as 8.5-point home dogs in their most recent meeting.  This Nebraska team is better than those versions, and this Rutgers team is down a few notches this year.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California +5.5

The California Golden Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country as Mark Fox is doing a heck of a job with this team.  They have gone 9-5 SU & 11-3 ATS this season, including 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home.  They just beat Arizona State by 24 at home last time out, and they are primed to hand USC its first loss of the season.

The Trojans are overvalued due to their 12-0 start this season.  They have only played three true road games and two were wins by less than this margin with a 5-point win at Temple and a 2-point win at Washington State.  They also beat lowly Florida Gulf Coast by 17.  This will be their toughest road test of the season.

Making matters worse for the Trojans is that they have been off for three weeks with their last game on December 18th due to COVID.  There will be a rust factor with them.  There is no rust factor for the Golden Bears, who just played ASU on January 2nd and have won five straight coming in.

USC is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following nine or more consecutive wins.  They have failed to cover three of their last four with shaky home wins over Eastern Kentucky, Long Beach State and UC-Irvine all by 12 points or less.  California is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Golden Bears are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games.  Take California Thursday.