20* Baylor/Gonzaga Championship Game No-Brainer on Baylor +4.5

The Baylor Bears have been the second-best team in the country all season and it really hasn't even been close.  They are 27-2 this season and their only struggles came after a COVID pause for three weeks.  They went 1-7 ATS in their next eight games after the pause and entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued because of it.

After barely failing to cover in a 24-point win over Harford as 25.5-point favorites in their opener, the Bears have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since.  They beat Wisconsin by 13 as 6.5-point favorites, beat Villanova by 11 as 7.5-point favorites and topped Arkansas by 9 as 7.5-point favorites.  Then they blasted Houston 78-59 as 5-point favorites in the Final Four.

I think the blowout nature of that win helps them here in the Championship Game.  The Bears will still be fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Gonzaga had to play the late game and went into overtime with UCLA, winning a 93-90 thriller.  There's no question the Bears will be the fresher, more prepared team after playing in the early game on Saturday.  They got to watch Gonzaga after and got a head start to game planning.  I think this is now a very evenly-matched game and I actually make Baylor a slight favorite, so I definitely love getting the +4.5 here.

Baylor is just so tough to tame as they average 82.8 points per game and shoot 41.2% from 3-point range as a team.  Their top five scorers all shoot 39.6% or better from 3-point range.  Gonzaga just allowed a poor UCLA offensive team to shoot 57.6% against them and every player that played in the game for the Bruins shot at least 50% from the floor.  You can just imagine what Baylor is going to do against this soft Gonzaga defense.

While Baylor is known for being an offensive juggernaut, and rightfully so, I actually believe the Bears are the better defensive team here.  That has shown in the NCAA Tournament as they are allowing just 60.0 points per game and 42% shooting in their five tournament games.  Gonzaga hasn't seen a team that is as athletic defensively as Baylor is all season.  Nothing is going to come easy for the Bulldogs tonight.

The Bears are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Baylor is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as underdogs.  Bet Baylor Monday.

15* UCLA/Gonzaga Final Four ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +14.5

I was definitely skeptical of UCLA going into the Alabama game and very high on the Crimson Tide -5.5 in that game for one of my few losses of the NCAA Tournament.  But the Bruins impressed me with an outright win in that game, and they went on to upset Michigan as 6.5-point dogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  They certainly aren't getting respect here as 14.5-point dogs to Gonzaga.

UCLA is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament with four outright upsets as underdogs.  They just feel like they can't lose at this point with that 14-point comeback against Michigan State in the play-in game.  They showed some great poise after giving up an 11-point halftime lead to Alabama, and with the Crimson Tide hitting a 3-pointer at the buzzer to tie it.  They went on to score 23 points in overtime against one of the best defenses in the country.  Then they led basically the entire way against Michigan.

The Bruins have been playing some tremendous defense in the NCAA Tournament, and they like to slow down the pace, which is what has allowed them to win these games.  It will also allow them to keep this game close against Gonzaga with fewer possessions for both teams.  They held Michigan to 49 points, Alabama to 65 at the end of regulation, Abilene Christian to 47 and BYU to 62.

You certainly aren't getting any discounts on Gonzaga at this point after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four NCAA Tournament games.  But Oklahoma, Creighton and USC all stayed within 19 points of them, and UCLA can certainly stay within 14.5 points.  It's crazy that USC was a 9-point dog to Gonzaga and now UCLA is a 14.5-point dog, a 5.5-point adjustment.  There is recency bias on the Bulldogs right now, but there clearly is no recency bias on the Bruins as nobody believes in this team.  That's just how they like it.

The Bruins are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win.  Gonzaga is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after its opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls in two consecutive games.  The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after covering four or five of their last six games against the spread.  Take UCLA Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -4.5

The Baylor Bears have been the second-best team in the country all season and it really hasn't even been close.  They are 26-2 this season and their only struggles came after a COVID pause for three weeks.  They went 1-7 ATS in their next eight games after the pause and entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued because of it.

After barely failing to cover in a 24-point win over Harford as 25.5-point favorites in their opener, the Bears have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since.  They beat Wisconsin by 13 as 6.5-point favorites, beat Villanova by 11 as 7.5-point favorites and topped Arkansas by 9 as 7.5-point favorites.  I think we are getting them at a huge discount here as only 4.5-point favorites over Houston now in the Final Four.

Houston has had a pretty easy path to the Final 4 unlike Houston.  The Cougars have beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State to get here.  All four of those were double-digit seeds and pulled upsets to get to Houston! This is definitely a step up in class for the Cougars.

It's worth noting that Houston has only played one team that is ranked in the KenPom Top 25 all season and that was Texas Tech (20th).  The Cougars are grossly overvalued due to their 28-3 record this season.  They nearly lost to both Rutgers and Oregon State, but pulled out both games in the closing minutes.  They won't be so fortunate here against the best team they have played all season by a wide margin.

Baylor is just so tough to tame as they average 83.0 points per game and shoot 41.1% from 3-point range as a team.  Their top five scorers all shoot 39.6% or better from 3-point range.  Houston is known for great defense, but they haven't faced an offense near the caliber of Baylor this season.  They will be shell-schocked.

Baylor is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  The Bears are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Bears are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* USC/Gonzaga Elite 8 No-Brainer on USC +8.5

The fact that Gonzaga has won 26 straight games by double-digits has this line inflated.  They have had such an easy path in those 26 games and certainly in the NCAA Tournament with wins over Norfolk State, an Oklahoma team missing its second-leading scorer and an overrated Creighton team.

Gonzaga will be in for its stiffest test of the season tonight against this USC team that is just rolling through some good opponents.  The Trojans are 6-1 in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points to Colorado.  They have won their three NCAA Tournament games by 16 over Drake, by 34 over Kansas and by 14 over Oregon.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

USC is tricky defensively.  The Mobley brothers inside have made them the best 2-point defense in the country.  And they are mixing in their zone defense very well and will continue to do so here against Gonzaga to give them some looks that they have never seen before.  And the Bulldogs only have one day to prepare for it after beating Creighton on Saturday, which is a huge advantage for USC.

I also like the matchup for the Mobley brothers inside against Gonzaga.  The one weakness for the Bulldogs is their interior defense as Timme is soft at defending the rim, and they don't really have anyone else to do it.  Well, if there's any team that can punish them for being soft inside, it's definitely USC with the Mobley brothers.  The Trojans have been extremely efficient offensive, shooting 47.2% or better in seven consecutive games, including 50% or better in four straight.

Andy Enfield is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, going 7-0 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games as the coach of USC.  The Trojans are 9-1 ATS vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet USC Tuesday.

20* Oregon State/Houston Elite 8 No-Brainer on Oregon State +8

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall with 12 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset of Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs in the opening round.  They led by as many as 18 against Oklahoma State and won 80-70 as 6-point dogs in the Round of 32.  Then they led basically the entire way and upset Loyola-Chicago 65-58 as 7-point dogs.

The Beavers also pulled off three straight upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game for another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 8 points against Houston in the Elite 8.  What more does this team have to do to do get some some respect?

Houston has had a pretty easy path to the Elite 8 unlike Oregon State.  The Cougars have beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse to get here.  This is definitely a step up in class for the Cougars.  And I like the matchup as it is expected to be a low-scoring game as both teams are great defensively.  The total is only 129 for this game, and low-scoring games definitely favor the underdog.  This game will play right into the Beavers' hands.

Oregon State is 16-3 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Beavers are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  Oregon State is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Bet Oregon State Monday.

15* Oregon/USC Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +2.5

The Oregon Ducks have saved their best basketball of the season for last, which always seems to be the case under Dana Altman.  They have gone 12-2 in their last 14 games with their last six wins coming by 10 points or more, including their 95-80 throttling of Iowa last round.

The Ducks are definitely fresh after getting a bye into the Round of 32 by not having to play VCU.  And I just trust Dana Altman as a head coach more than Andy Enfield.  Altman is 16-4 ATS as the coach of Oregon in NCAA Tournament games.  The Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as underdogs.

The USC Trojans are getting too much respect now after beating Drake and Kansas, two of the worst teams in the tournament.  Drake barely deserved to be there, and Kansas was coming off a COVID pause that forced them out of the Big 12 Tournament.  This is a big step up in class for the Trojans, and it's actually a step down in class for the Ducks after facing Iowa.  Roll with Oregon Sunday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 26-6 SU this season and are 16-9 ATS in their last 25 games overall after blasting Maryland 96-77 as 6-point favorites in the Round of 32.  They have consistently been getting margin with their up-tempo style under Nate Oats, and that's why I'm willing to lay the points with them here against UCLA.

Alabama ranks in the Top 30 in the country in amount of points coming from the 3-point line as they hoist 30 per game at a 35.5% clip.  And while this Alabama offense that scores 79.7 PPG gets the attention, the Crimson Tide actually rank 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 40.8% shooting as a team and 28.9% shooting from 3-point range on the season.  They face a UCLA team that struggles to defense the 3-pointer, giving up 21 attempts per game at a 34.2% clip.  And it's a good matchup for the Crimson Tide because they like to run teams from the 3-point line, and UCLA shoots the 3-pointer at a 37.4% clip this season.

UCLA is getting too much respect here after beating three mediocre teams in five days to make the Sweet 16.  They rallied from 14 down to beat Michigan State in OT, beat a BYU team that was way overseeded as a No. 6 seed, and crushed an Abilene Christian team that was only in the Round of 32 because Texas played its worst game of the season with 23 turnovers to hand them the game.  This is a huge step up in class for UCLA based on what they have faced thus far in the NCAA Tournament.  Remember, the Bruins went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four gams of the season against Pac-12 opponents.

UCLA is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Sweet 16 games.  Alabama is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  The Bruins are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games as underdogs.  The Crimson Tide are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  Oats is 11-1 ATS after a game where his team forced 8 or fewer turnovers as a head coach.  Bet Alabama Sunday.

20* Oral Roberts/Arkansas Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Oral Roberts +11.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.  They have proceeded to be the cinderella of the NCAA Tournament, upsetting Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs and upsetting Florida 81-78 as 9-point dogs.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Sweet 16.  The Golden Eagles have scored 75 or more points in each of their last 11 games overall and topped 80 points eight times.  They have averaged 84 points per game in their last 11 games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference outside of those upset wins over Ohio State and Florida.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.

Having already seen Arkansas once this season is a big advantage for Oral Roberts.  And it's worth noting the Golden Eagles actually led the Razorbacks by 10 points at halftime before getting outscored by 21 after intermission.  That was a true road game for the Golden Eagles and they only lost by 11.  They should be able to stay within 11.5 points in the rematch on a neutral this time around.

Oral Roberts is 9-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Oral Roberts is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games after two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS as underdogs this season.  Bet Oral Roberts Saturday.

20* Oregon State/Loyola-Chicago Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State +6.5

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall with 11 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset of Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs in the opening round.  They led by as many as 18 against Oklahoma State and won 80-70 as 6-point dogs last round.

The Beavers also pulled off three straight upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game for another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 6.5 points against Loyola-Chicago.  What more does this team have to do to do get some some respect?

Loyola-Chicago goes from being a 7-point underdog to Illinois to a 6.5-point favorite against Oregon State.   That's a 13.5-point adjustment and it's too much.  Of course the Ramblers want to win this game too.  But coming off such a huge upset victory against Illinois to bounce the first #1 seed from the tournament is such an emotional high.

It's going to be hard for them to get up for Oregon State as much as they were up for Illinois, an in-state opponent where they were looked at as the little brother.  They may very well win this game too, but asking them to win by 7 points or more to beat us is asking a lot.

Oregon State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Beavers are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.  Oregon State is a perfect 13-0 ATS in its last 13 games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis -4

I really believe the Memphis Tigers could have made a run in the NCAA Tournament with how well they played down the stretch had they gotten in.  Now they are taking their frustration out on NIT opponents and looking to make a statement.  That showed in their 71-60 win over Dayton in their first-round game.

Memphis is now 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The three losses all came by 3 points or less with two of them to Houston, which is in the Sweet 16.  They lost on a buzzer-beater 64-67 at Houston and lost in the AAC Tournament 74-76 to the Cougars.  Each of their 11 wins during this stretch have come by 4 points or more.

It has been a bad look for the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament with San Diego State getting blown out by Syracuse and Utah State getting blown out by Texas Tech.  Boise State went 0-4 SU in its final four games of the season with losses to SDSU (twice), Fresno State and Nevada.  Then they barely beat SMU 85-84 in the opening round of the NIT, but that is a short-handed SMU team that was coming off a long COVID pause and rusty.  This will be a much stiffer test for the Broncos tonight.

Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Memphis Thursday.

20* Maryland/Alabama CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 25-6 SU this season and are 15-9 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  They have consistently been getting margin with their up-tempo style under Nate Oats, and that's why I'm willing to lay the points with them here against Maryland.

I believe Maryland is one of the worst teams left in the NCAA Tournament.  They are just 17-13 this season and had recent upset losses to both Penn State and Northwestern, who of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They somehow shot 51.2% and held UConn to 32.3% shooting last round, which was an aberration and won't happen again.

Maryland is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the 3-pointer.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them as Alabama ranks in the Top 30 in the country in amount of points coming from the 3-point line as they hoist 30 per game at a 35% clip.  And while this Alabama offense that scores 79.2 PPG gets the attention, the Crimson Tide actually rank 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 40.4% shooting as a team and 28.5% shooting from 3-point range on the season.  Maryland is a terrible offensive team and won't be able to keep up on the scoreboard in this one.

Maryland is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Terrapins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  Maryland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games coming in this season.  Bet Alabama Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on LSU +5

Michigan really peaked too early.  But the Wolverines have gone 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with two of their wins coming against Michigan State and Maryland, two fringe NCAA Tournament teams.  The other was in the Round of 64 against Texas Southern, but I cashed in Texas Southern +26.5 easily as they only lost by 16 to Michigan.  I'll gladly fade the Wolverines again for a number of the same reasons.

The Wolverines lost their best player in Isaiah Livers (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to an ankle injury against Maryland and didn't have him in their loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament.  They are going to have to slow it down and rely on defense to win games without Livers.  They can't be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers without him.

Now they take a big step up in competition against LSU, which unlike Michigan, is peaking at the right time.  The Tigers are 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Vanderbilt by 15 as 15-point favorites, Missouri by 6 as 3.5-point road dogs, Ole Miss by 3 as 1-point favorites, Arkansas by 7 as 3.5-point favorites and St. Bonaventure by 15 as 2-point favorites.  

Their lone loss came 79-80 to Alabama as 6-point dogs in the SEC Championship Game only after they missed a handful of opportunities to win it just before the buzzer.  And I hold Alabama in very high regard.  If they can nearly beat Alabama, they can certainly beat a Michigan team that's without Livers.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 6-0 ATS in its six games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  These four trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with LSU Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio +5.5

The Ohio Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with three wins by a combined 44 points in the MAC Tournament despite being underdogs in two of them to Toledo and Buffalo.  And don't forget, the Bobcats took Illinois to the wire earlier this season in a 75-77 loss as 15.5-point road underdogs.

Then Ohio came out and upset Virginia 62-58 as 6.5-point dogs in the Round of 64.  Now I think they take a step down in competition here against Creighton and are once again underdogs of 5.5 points.  This is a game the Bobcats can certainly win outright, and those games against both Virginia and Illinois prove they can hang with and beat anyone.

Creighton was fortunate to survive in a 63-62 win as 7.5-point favorites over UC-Santa Barbara in the Round of 64.  The Bluejays are now 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall and dealing with the aftermath of the Greg McDermott racist comments.  They lost by 25 to Georgetown, by 12 to Villanova and by 8 to Xavier.  Two of their wins came against lowly Butler, another was a 3-point win over UConn and then that 1-point win over UCSB.  They just aren't playing well enough right now to be laying 5.5 points to a team that is playing as well as Ohio is.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Bluejays are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Take Ohio Monday.

20* Oregon/Iowa CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +5.5

Once Oregon got past all the COVID problems they really flashed their potential down the stretch this season.  They went 11-2 SU in their final 13 games this season with each of their last five victories coming by double-digits.  This late-season should come as no surprise as Oregon head coach Dana Altman is one of the best in the country and always has his teams playing their best basketball late in the season.  

Altman is 15-4 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in first round games.  His teams have won by 18.5 points per game on average in the first round.  Well, the Ducks didn't have to play a first-round game because it got canceled due to COVID issues for VCU.  That means the Ducks will be the fresher, more prepared team here against Iowa.

Iowa is about as vulnerable a Top 2 seed as there is in the NCAA Tournament.  That's because they don't defend very well, and they are particularly poor at defending the 3-pointer, ranking outside the Top 200 in that department.  That's bad news considering they will be up against one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country in Oregon that shoots it at a 37.9% clip.  

Oregon also turns it over just 11 times per game and will get great shots almost every time down the floor.  Iowa shot 53.7% and held Grand Canyon to 42.9% yet still failed to cover in a 12-point win as 13.5-point favorites.  Oregon will close the gap in that department and has a great shot to win this game outright.

The Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  The Ducks are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Oregon is 6-0 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Bet Oregon Monday.

20* Oregon State/Oklahoma State CBB No-Brainer on Oregon State +6.5

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall with 10 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset as 8.5-point dogs to Tennessee in the opening round, and now they are being undervalued once again as 6.5-point dogs to Oklahoma State.

They pulled off three upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game in another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Oklahoma State found itself in a dog fight with a bad Liberty team.  The Cowboys were very fortunate to cover in a 69-60 win as 7-point favorites.  They trailed by 3 at halftime and didn't finally put the game away until the closing minute.  This is a big step up in competition here against Oregon State.  And they are facing a Beavers team playing with a ton of confidence and shooting the 3-pointer at better than a 44% clip over their last handful of games.

The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Oregon State is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win.  The Beavers are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs this season.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as favorites.  Take Oregon State Sunday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oral Roberts +8.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.  Then they upset Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs.  I was on them in that game and I'm back on them today against Florida.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like the Gators.  The Golden Eagles have scored 75 or more points in each of their last 10 games overall and topped 80 points seven times.  They have averaged 84.3 points per game in their last 10 games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference outside of that upset win over Ohio State.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with those five teams, they can certainly hang with Florida.

The Gators were fortunate to get into the NCAA Tournament with a 14-9 record.  They went 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS over their final nine games this season.  They lost by double-digits to Tennessee twice and also to Arkansas by doubles.  Their four wins during this stretch all came against non-NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia, Auburn, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  They went 0-4 against NCAA Tournament teams and also lost to lowly South Carolina.  They trailed basically the entire way against Virginia Tech in their NCAA Tournament opener and were fortunate to win that game in OT.

Oral Roberts is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Gators are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a win by 6 points or less.  Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Oral Roberts Sunday.

15* Syracuse/WVU Round of 32 ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +4.5

The Syracuse Orange are playing with a chip on their shoulder because they had a ton of naysayers that stated they shouldn't even be in the NCAA Tournament.  But the fact of the matter is they earned their spot, and they have saved their best basketball for last which always seems to be the case with head coach Jim Boeheim.  They have also done their best work in the NCAA Tournament as a double-digit seed, making recent Final Four and Sweet 16 runs the last two times it happened.

Syracuse is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall with its only loss coming to Virginia on a last-second 3-pointer in the ACC Tournament as a 5.5-point dogs.  They beat UNC by 2, Clemson by 10, NC State by 21 and then San Diego State by 16.  This game should be lined closer to a PK with the way Syracuse is playing right now.

West Virginia was in a close game with Morehead State before finally pulling away late.   The Mountaineers allowed 52% shooting and they just have a way of losing closing games this season with four recent losses all by 5 points or fewer.  They are just tough to trust late in games against quality competition because they take such poor shots.  And I like backing Syracuse in tournament situations where teams only have one day or less to get ready for them.  Boeheim's patented 2-3 zone takes time to prepare for.

Syracuse is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Orange are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament.  West Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a win by 15 points or more.  The Orange are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as underdogs, including 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as underdogs.  I expect that huge chip on their shoulder to lead to another upset victory here over the Mountaineers.  Roll with Syracuse Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -8

If you listened to my podcast this week you know I'm high on Texas to make a Final Four Run playing in the easiest region, which is the East.  I'm high on them for a number of reasons, and I'm certainly laying the points with them in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament against Abilene Christian Saturday.

The Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won five straight games coming in and only had to win two games in the Big 12 Tournament to win it all.  That's because their semifinal game against Kansas got canceled.  So they should still be pretty fresh.  They beat both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament.

The guard trio of Jones, Ramey and Coleman II are elite and all average 12.4 PPG or more.  They all shoot better than 80% from the free throw line as well.  Another guard in Febres has only played in their last 10 games and is improving with each game, scoring in double figures in two of his last four games.

Texas also has a pair of elite post players in Jerricho Sims and Kai Jones.  Sims averaged 15.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in the Big 12 Tournament and is an athletic freak who does everything for this game.  Jones added 11.5 points and 6.0 boards in the tournament and even shoots 36.7% from 3-point range on the season.  There's just no weaknesses with this team.

Abilene Christian is one of the shortest teams in the country.  They are going to have a hard time getting rebounds against Texas, which is one of the taller teams in the country.  The Longhorns are +5 in rebounding margin this season due to their size inside.  They defend at an elite level, holding opponents to 41.3% shooting this season.  

Abilene Christian played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their only two difficult games coming in a 13-point loss to Arkansas and a 7-point loss to Texas Tech in which the Red Raiders had an off shooting night at 27.9%, yet still found a way to win that game.  Abilene played the 330th-ranked schedule in the country, while Texas played the 33rd-ranked schedule.

Texas went 11-2 SU in all road/neutral games this season while playing its best basketball away from home.  The Longhorns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference win.  Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after two or more consecutive wins.  The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio +7.5

Virginia got popped with COVID and was forced out of the ACC Tournament.  The Cavaliers haven't been able to practice leading up to the NCAA Tournament, so there's no doubt they are going to be rusty.  They are primed to get upset by Ohio here Saturday.

The Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with three wins by a combined 44 points in the MAC Tournament despite being underdogs in two of them to Toledo and Buffalo.  And don't forget, the Bobcats took Illinois to the wire earlier this season in a 75-77 loss as 15.5-point road underdogs.

Virginia plays the type of style that lets teams hang around even if they weren't in a tough situation on here with COVID.  They slow it down to a snails' pace always and rely on their defense to win games.  Well, Ohio averages 80.9 points per game and shoots 48.9% as a team.  They will get plenty of points to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upsets.

The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Ohio is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Cavaliers are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 postseason tournament games.  The Cavaliers are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 first-round tournament games.  Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Take Ohio Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Southern +26.5

Texas Southern (17-8) should not be catching 26.5 points against Michigan in the Round of 64.  The Tigers have gone 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points.  They can hang with the Wolverines based off of what we've seen from them in the non-conference.

The Tigers only lost to Washington State by 4 as 10-point dogs, to Oklahoma State by 20 as 19.5-point dogs, upset Wyoming as 9.5-point dogs, covered against St. Mary's in a 12-point loss as 15.5-point dogs, lost to Auburn by 17 as 14-point dogs and lost to BYU by 16 as 17.5-point dogs.  They really weren't overmatched in any of those games, and they won't be overmatched enough by Michigan to lose this game by 27-plus, which is what it's going to take for the Wolverines to cover this number.

Michigan really peaked too early.  But the Wolverines have gone 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall with their only wins coming against Michigan State and Maryland, two fringe NCAA Tournament teams.  The Wolverines lost their best player in Isaiah Livers (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to an ankle injury against Maryland and didn't have him in their loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament.  They are going to have to slow it down and rely on defense to win games without Livers.  They can't be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers without him.

Texas Southern is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Texas Southern Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Colorado CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgetown +6.5

Georgetown has been grossly undervalued all season as evidenced by their 16-9 ATS record.  They saved their best basketball for last, going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming to UConn (twice).

The Hoyas won four straight games outright as underdogs in the Big East Tournament, outscoring their opponents by a combined 53 points in the process.  They won by 19 over Marquette, by 1 over Villanova, by 8 over Seton Hall and then blasted Creighton by 25 in the championship game while playing their 4th game in 4 days.

I like the fact that this game will be played on Saturday instead of Friday, giving the Hoyas and extra day to recover from playing four games in four days.  And I also like the early 12:15 EST start time, which is going to be a 10:15 body clock game for Colorado as they are from the Mountain time zone.  The Buffaloes aren't used to playing games this early, but the Hoyas are as they are from the East Coast.

The Hoyas are an elite defensive team as they held opponents to 56.5 points per game in the Big East Tournament.  They had four different players average double figures scoring in the tournament, led by Blair and his 15.3 PPG plus Wahab and his 14.3 PPG and 8.3 RPG inside. 

I usually look to fade the Pac-12 in the NCAA Tournament because they are the weakest of the Power conferences.  Colorado had all three games in its Pac-12 Tournament decided by 3 points or less.  They only beat Cal by 3 as 14-point favorites.  They beat USC by 2 as 1.5-point favorites.  And they lost outright to Oregon State by 2 as 8.5-point favorites in the Championship Game and trailed the entire way.

I just don't like much about this Colorado team outside PG Wright IV and C Battey, who has a hard time staying out of foul trouble.  They just rely too much on those two players to get their production, so they are pretty easy to stop.  The Buffaloes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as favorites.  Colorado is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament Games.  They have been terrible away from Colorado through the years.  The Hoyas come in with a ton of confidence from winning the Big East Tournament and that momentum carries over here with a likely upset of the Buffaloes in the opening round.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Cleveland State +20.5

The Cleveland State Vikings have been undervalued all season.  They went 19-7 SU & 17-8-1 ATS this season and are once again getting zero respect from the books in the opening round.  They are 20.5-point underdogs to the Houston Cougars.  I fully expect them to give Houston a run for its money.

Cleveland State has been competitive in every game this season with two exceptions.  They lost 46-101 at Ohio, but that was due to shooting 22.8% as a team.  It was a complete aberration.  They came back in their next game and only lost 61-67 as 23.5-point dogs at Ohio State to really show their potential.  The Buckeyes are a fellow No. 2 seed alongside Houston.  They also lost 49-85 at Wright State the day after upsetting Wright State as a 9.5-point underdog.  It was a letdown spot for them, and a revenge spot for Wright State as they shot just 27.9% in that game.

Houston is way overvalued coming into the NCAA Tournament after going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes 38 and 37-point victories over Cincinnati.  The other covers came against Western Kentucky, South Florida and Tulane.  The two non-covers were close wins against Memphis by 3 and 2 points.  So they haven't faced a single NCAA Tournament team in their last seven games.  The last one they faced they lost outright at Wichita State as 7.5-point favorites.  They only faved two NCAA Tournament teams all season in Wichita State and Texas Tech, so they padded their record against a soft schedule as the AAC was way down this season.

Dennis Gates is 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of Cleveland State.  The Vikings are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Cleveland State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take Cleveland State Friday.

20* Oregon State/Tennessee CBB No-Brainer on Oregon State +8

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall with nine outright victories as underdogs.  They are being undervalued once again here as 8-point dogs in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

They pulled off three upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game in another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Tennessee faded a little down the stretch in going 5-4 SU & 3-5-1 ATS in their final nine games.  I just don't think this team is good enough to be laying this kind of number against a team playing as well as Oregon State.  And I just don't trust head coach Rick Barnes, who is 7-17-1 ATS in his last 25 NCAA Tournament games and failed time and time again dating back to his time at Texas in this spot.

The Beavers are 13-3 ATS int heir last 16 games as underdogs.  Oregon State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Vols are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.  Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games as favorites.  The Beavers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs this season.  Take Oregon State Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +16.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like Ohio State, which is vulnerable defensively.  The Golden Eagles scored 75 or more points in each of their final nine games this season and topped 80 points seven times.  They averaged 85.3 points per game in those nine games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly hang with Ohio State.

I think the Buckeyes are a little fatigued right now after playing four games in four days in the Big Ten Tournament, including two overtime games.  All four games went down to the wire as they beat Minnesota by 4, beat Purdue in OT, beat Michigan by 1 and lost to Illinois in OT.  Now they have to play on Friday in the first slate of Round of 64 games.  It's going to be a tall task to ask them to beat Oral Roberts by 17-plus points to cover this number.

Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Buckeyes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Bet Oral Roberts Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -8.5

This Arkansas team is one of the most underrated in the country.  They have gone 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Their only losses came by 4 at Oklahoma State and by 7 to LSU in the SEC Tournament.  And I just love their head coach in Eric Musselman.

The 14-1 record for Colgate stands out like a sore thumb and has them overvalued.  But they played one of the easiest schedules in the country, which is the biggest reason for that record.  They played the 313th-ranked schedule.  They didn't play anyone outside the Patriot League this season, which is one of the weakest conferences in the country.

Arkansas will be by far the best team that Colgate has played this season, and it's not really even close.  Arkansas only had six losses all season and only one of those came against a team ranked outside the Top 30 in Kenpom, which was Missouri.  They beat three teams that are in the NCAA Tournament in the non-conference all by double-digits in North Texas, Oral Roberts and Abilene Christian, three teams that I believe are all better than Colgate.

Colgate has only faced five different opponents the entire season, and Army is the highest ranked team they played at KenPom and they're ranked 189th.  They lost by 23 to Clemson, by 16 to Syracuse and by 29 to Auburn in three non-conference games last year.  

Arkansas finished 35th in offensive efficiency this season.  Colgate didn't face a team that finished in the top 200 in offensive efficiency this season.  Arkansas ranks 14th in defensive efficiency.  Army is the best defensive team that Colgate has faced at 149th, and outside Loyola-Maryland, the Raiders didn't face another team that ranked better than 285th in defensive efficiency.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Colgate) - after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 60-23 (72.3%) ATS since 1997.  The Razorbacks are 15-6 ATS as a favorite this season.  Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Razorbacks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Arkansas Friday.

20* UCLA/Michigan State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Michigan State -1.5

Two teams headed in opposite directions square off in the play-in game here with Michigan State taking on UCLA.  I'll side with the team with the positive momentum in the Spartans in a game they basically just have to win to cover.

Michigan State went 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its final eight games of the season to earn its way into the NCAA Tournament.  That includes upset wins over Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan.  Those latter three teams are two #1 seeds and a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they've proven they can play with anyone.

UCLA comes into the big dance limping to the finish line.  The Bruins went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games this season, including an upset loss to Oregon State in their Pac-12 tournament opener.  And we saw UCLA lose to Ohio State in non-conference action in their lone game against a Big Ten opponent.

This game will be played in Purdue's Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana, which is an advantage for the Spartans because they are used to playing there every season.  They just played there on February 16th and being used to the venue and the rims is certainly an advantage.

The Bruins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  UCLA is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss.  The Bruins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games.  UCLA is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 neutral site games as an underdog.  Take Michigan State Thursday.

15* Drake/Wichita State Play-In ANNIHILATOR on Drake +2

The Drake Bulldogs aren't just happy to be in the NCAA Tournament.  They are looking to make a statement with all the naysayers out there believing they should not be in the NCAA Tournament.  Look for them to upset the Wichita State Shockers in their play-in game Thursday.

Drake went 25-4 this season and had the second-most wins of any team in the country.  Two of those losses came to Loyola-Chicago, a team they also beat and is a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament.  The Bulldogs deserve to be here, and they did it despite being without two of their best players down the stretch in leading scorer and rebounder ShanQuan Hemphill (14.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Roman Penn (11.2 PPG, 5.5 APG).

Well, there's good news on the horizon as head coach Darian Devries has stated that everything is on track for Hemphill to make his much-anticipated return to the lineup for the NCAA Tournament.  He has missed the last seven games.  Penn has missed the last five games and is out for the season.  But Joseph Yesufu has stopped up in a big way in Penn's absence.  He has averaged 23.7 PPG in his last six games in place of Penn.

Wichita State went 16-5 this season but isn't as good as its record would indicate.  The Shockers went just 3-7 ATS in their final 10 games this season.  They were simply fortunate in close games this season as they had 10 wins by 6 points or fewer and 12 wins by 8 points or less.  Their only four wins by double-digits came against Emporia State, Newmann, South Florida and Tulsa.  To compare, Drake has 16 wins by double-digits.

The Bulldogs are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Drake is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Bulldogs are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  Wichita State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  The Shockers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games as favorites.  Roll with Drake Thursday.

20* Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern NCAA Tournament Opener on Texas Southern -2

Texas Southern (16-8) should be much more than a 2-point favorite against Mount St. Mary's (12-10) in this play-in game to kick off the 2021 NCAA Tournament.  They have fared better against the better competition and come into the tournament with a ton of confidence.

That's because the Tigers have gone 14-1 SU in their last 15 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points.  They played the much tougher non-conference schedule and had a good account of themselves against the better competition.

They only lost to Washington State by 4 as 10-point dogs, to Oklahoma State by 20 as 19.5-point dogs, upset Wyoming as 9.5-point dogs, covered against St. Mary's in a 12-point loss as 15.5-point dogs, lost to Auburn by 17 as 14-point dogs and lost to BYU by 16 as 17.5-point dogs.  They weren't really overmatched in any of those games.

The two best teams that Mount St. Mary's played out of conference were Maryland and VCU.  They lost by 18 to Maryland and by 18 to VCU.  The rest of their schedule was soft as butter, and they also lost to Navy in the non-conference.

Texas Southern is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games.  Texas Southern is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games as underdogs.  Bet Texas Southern Thursday.

20* Ohio State/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -6

Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  The Fighting Illini are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games overall with six straight covers coming in.  They received a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, then made easy work of both Rutgers (90-68) and Iowa (72-61), so they should still be pretty fresh and ready to go for this Championship Game.

The same cannot be said for the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They have to be running on fumes here Sunday playing their 4th game in 4 days.  They have barely survived each game they've won to get here.  They beat lowly Minnesota 79-75 as an 11-point favorites, needed OT to beat Purdue, and upset Michigan 68-67 yesterday.

They took advantage of a Michigan team that was missing its best player in Isaiah Livers.  They won't be able to take advantage of Illinois, which is fully healthy and ready to cap off a championship season.  And Ohio State is likely to be without Kyle Young (8.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG) due to a concussion, so they are going to be short-handed inside.  That's bad news when going up against a guy like Kofi Cockburn (17.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG) of Illinois.

Illinois is 11-1 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  Bet Illinois Sunday.

15* Cincinnati/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +13.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are making the most of their AAC Tournament after what was a tough regular season due to COVID.  The Bearcats have pulled two straight upsets over SMU as 5-point dogs and Wichita State as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they have their sights set on making the NCAA Tournament with a win over Houston Sunday.

At the very least, the Bearcats should cover this 13.5-point spread, and there's plenty of reason to believe there's value with them here.  Keep in mind Cincinnati was only a 12.5-point dog at Houston in their last meeting on February 21st.  Now the Bearcats are 13.5-point dogs on a neutral.

Certainly the Bearcats want revenge after losing 52-90 at Houston, which is 15-0 at home this season.  But that was a rare blowout loss for them.  In fact, they haven't lost by more than 15 points in any other game all season.

Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, so I don't think fatigue will be much of an issue for the Bearcats compared to the Cougars.  If anything, it's Houston that will be the more tired team because Cincinnati goes eight deep and had all eight players play between 15 and 32 minutes yesterday.  Meanwhile, Houston had to work for a 76-74 win over Memphis, which saw four starters play 38, 38, 37 and 31 minutes.

Lastly, Houston is almost already assured of a Top 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They just don't need this game as much as Cincinnati does, and I think motivation will be an issue for the Cougars.  Especially after recently blasting Cincinnati by 38 points they probably feel like they just have to show up to win.  I'll gladly back the team that wants it more catching 13.5 points.  Roll with Cincinnati Sunday.

15* Oregon State/Colorado Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8

The Oregon State Beavers have quietly gone 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are coming off two straight upset victories over UCLA and Oregon, including their impressive 75-64 win over the Ducks yesterday as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are being disrespected once again as 8-point dogs to Colorado Saturday.

Colorado is coming off two straight hard-fought wins over California by 3 as 14-point favorites and USC by 2 as 1.5-point favorites.  The Buffaloes are also played the late game last night, while Oregon State got to play before them.  I think the Beavers will actually be the fresher team here because of it.

Plus, Colorado is content with already punching its ticket to the NCAA Tournament.  Oregon State is on a mission to make the big dance and likely still needs to win this game to get in.  At the very least they should be able to stay within this 8-point spread and only lost by 4 as 6.5-point dogs to the Buffaloes the last time they squared off.

The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  Oregon State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when revenging a same-season loss.  The Beavers are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -1.5

Texas is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Longhorns have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their only losses coming by 2 to West Virginia and on the road to Texas Tech.  They avenged that defeat to the Red Raiders yesterday with a clutch 67-66 win that gave them all the confidence in the world.

Now the Longhorns are in an extremely favorable spot today.  They had yesterday off after a positive COVID test for Kansas.  So they will be rested and ready to go and win the Big 12 Tournament here today against Oklahoma State.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day after two hard-fought, upset wins over West Virginia and Baylor the past two days.  Both were decided by single-digits, and they win over Baylor makes it a successful Big 12 Tournament for the Cowboys no matter what happens in the championship game.  I think the rest and motivated really favors Texas here because of it.

The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Texas is 10-1 ATS in its last 10 road games off a conference win.  The Longhorns are 10-2 SU in all games played away from home this season.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -4

Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  The Fighting Illini are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall with five straight covers coming in.  They made easy work of Rutgers yesterday 90-68 so they should still be fresh and ready to go.

The same cannot be said for the Iowa Hawkeyes, who had to erase a 6-point halftime deficit to beat Wisconsin 62-57.  The fact that they were in a dog fight yesterday and the fact that they played the late game while Illinois played before them works against the Hawkeyes here. 

 Illinois will be the much fresher team after winning in a blowout and playing before Iowa Friday, especially with tip set for 3:30 EST this afternoon after Iowa played late last night.  The Fighting Illini won their lone meeting with Iowa 80-75 at home earlier this season.  They have a guy in Cockburn down low that can match up with Garza, and they have the athletic perimeter players on the outside that Iowa can't guard.  It's just a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes.

Plays against underdogs (Iowa) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games against an opponent that beat the spread by 48 or more points in their last seven games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Illinois Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/LSU SEC No-Brainer on LSU -1.5

The LSU Tigers have as much talent as anyone in the SEC.  They are a real sleeper to make a run in this tournament, and I love their chances of beating Ole Miss today.  Especially since they had a bye into this round, while Ole Miss has to play the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over SOuth Carolina yesterday.

LSU earned a bye by going 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their final five games down the stretch with four wins by double-digits and an upset road win at Missouri.  Ole Miss is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Rebels here.

LSU won 75-61 as a 2-point road dog at Ole Miss in their lone meeting this season.  The Tigers improved to 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and they are 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  With this line the Tigers basically just have to win to cover, which shouldn't be a problem given the favorable spot for them.  Roll with LSU Friday.

20* UNC/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -3

Florida State has a massive rest advantage here after its game with Duke got postponed yesterday.  I was on the Seminoles in that game and disappointed it got postponed.  But I'm back on them again today for many of the same reasons I was against Duke.

North Carolina will be playing for a third consecutive day.  The Tar Heels had to rally from a halftime deficit to beat Virginia Tech 81-73 yesterday.  And that was a rusty Hokies team that was coming off a long COVID pause.

The Tar Heels had seven different players play at least 21 minutes yesterday against the Hokies.  They will be on tired legs here, and that's bad news against a fresh, deep Florida State team that will run them out of the gym.

The Tar Heels are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games as underdogs.  The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Seminoles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Seminoles are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games.

North Carolina is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after two straight games where it grabbed 10 or more rebounds than its opponent.  The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive wins.  It's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Tar Heels today in a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Seminoles.  Bet Florida State Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  They have gone 21-5 this season, have won eight straight coming in and are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games overall.  This number is way too short today against Missouri given their advantages.

Arkansas earned a double-bye and is rested and ready to go now.  Meanwhile, Missouri was in a dog fight in a 73-70 win over Georgia yesterday as 6.5-point favorites.  Four starters had to play 30-plus minutes for the Tigers and they won't have much left in the tank here for Arkansas.  Look for the Razorbacks to run the Tigers out of the gym tonight.

Missouri is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Arkansas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Take Arkansas Friday. 

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue +1.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They should not be underdogs today to Ohio State with how well they are playing, their head-to-head success and the favorable spot for them.

Indeed, Purdue earned a double-bye and didn't have to play yesterday.  They will be rested and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Ohio State had to hold off Minnesota late for a 79-75 victory as 11-point favorites.  The Buckeyes are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now the Buckeyes are a tired team and are taking on a Purdue team they are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS against this season.  The Boilermakers won 67-60 at home and 67-65 on the road.  Ohio State had two of its worst offensive performances of the season against this Purdue defense.  It won't go much better for them today on tired legs.  Purdue is now 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Purdue Friday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas +1.5

The Texas Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-2 SU in their last eight games overall with a 2-point loss to West Virginia and a 9-point loss to Texas Tech.

The Longhorns also lost by 2 to the Red Raiders earlier this season at home.  They blew a 10-point halftime lead in that 2-point loss.  They were also tied at halftime in their 9-point loss to Texas Tech in the rematch.  So they simply fell apart in the 2nd half of both games.  They will certainly want some revenge here, and while I don't believe in the saying it's hard to beat a team three times in the same season, I do believe it will be hard for the Red Raiders to beat a team as good as Texas three times.

That's especially the case with how well the Longhorns are playing right now and on the road this season.  Texas is 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year.  Texas Tech is just 6-5 SU & 4-7 ATS in all road games.

Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games off a conference win.  The Red Raiders have been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season.  They are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Texas Tech is 9-24-1 ATS in its last 34 games following a SU loss.  Take Texas Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -5.5

The Wisconsin Badgers will be highly motivated for a victory in their Big Ten Tournament opener here against Penn State.  They ended the season on a three-game losing streak to three of the best teams in the Big Ten in Illinois, Purdue and Iowa with all three losses coming by 5 points or less.

Now the Badgers are rested and ready to go today against Penn State, which had to rally from a 15-point deficit to beat lowly Nebraska 72-66.  The Nittany Lions had to play their starters big minutes obviously to make that comeback and will now be tired.  

Penn State will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 5 days.  The Nittany Lions come in overvalued off three straight victories against three bottom feeders in the Big Ten in Minnesota, Maryland and Nebraska.  Conversely, Wisconsin comes in undervalued off three straight losses to the cream of the crop in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss.  Penn State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering two of its last three ATS.  The Nittany Lions are 1-4-3 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  The Badgers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss.  Roll with Wisconsin Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -8.5

The Oregon Ducks are on their usual late-season surge and playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to USC.  They have also covered four straight coming in with four straight victories by 8 points or more.

Now the Ducks are rested and ready to go today while Arizona State had to play yesterday.  The Sun Devils needed a comeback win to beat Washington State 64-59.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 8 days.

The Sun Devils are already short-handed due to injuries, which is a big reason they are an awful 11-13 SU & 6-18 ATS this season.  Oregon won 75-64 at Arizona State in their lone meeting this season and should have no problem beating them by double-digits today given the favorable situation they are in.

The Sun Devils are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  Arizona State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The Sun Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.  The Ducks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win.  Oregon is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following four or more consecutive ATS wins.  Arizona State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after going under the total in its previous game.  Roll with Oregon Thursday.

20* Iowa State/Oklahoma ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State +11.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have not packed it in and are still fighting for that elusive Big 12 victory.  It might just happen where the magic seems to always happen for them every year at Hilton South in Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament.  They have had unbelievable success in this tournament over the years.

Now the Cyclones get a huge boost with the return of leading scorer Rasir Bolton (15.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.9 APG), who left early in the TCU game on February 27th with an ankle injury and had to sit out the next three games.  It's no wonder the Cyclones have gone 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Now is a great time to 'buy low' on Iowa State.

Somehow, Oklahoma continues to get massive respect from oddsmakers despite going 0-4 SU in its last four games overall and 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Sooners only beat the Cyclones by 7 at home and by 10 on the road in their two earlier meetings.  So the Cyclones have proven they can play with them, and they should not be catching 11.5 points here.

Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after failing to cover three of its last four ATS.  Oklahoma is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after three straight games with 31 or fewer rebounds.  The Cyclones are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 conference tournament games.  Iowa State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games as an underdog.  The Sooners are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +1

The Washington State Cougars want revenge from their 74-77 (OT) road loss at Arizona State on February 27th at 5-point underdogs.  But the Cougars didn't have their best player in Isaac Bonton (17.7 PPG, 4.0 APG, 4.0 RPG) for that game, and they'll have him back in the lineup now for the Pac-12 Tournament opener.  It will make all the difference for this team.

Arizona State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season.  The Sun Devils entered the season in the Top 25 and have fallen flat on their faces.  They are just 10-13 SU & 5-18 ATS this season.

Injuries have taken their toll on the Sun Devils, who are still missing several key players entering the Pac-12 Tournament.  And it wasn't a good look for them to close out the regular season as they followed up their 61-75 loss at Colorado with a 59-98 loss at Utah.  While I know the Cougars will show up for the Pac-12 Tournament, the Sun Devils may have already packed it in.

The Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as underdogs.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Sun Devils are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite.  Arizona State is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Sun Devils are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games after five straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games after two or more consecutive losses.  Bet Washington State Wednesday.

20* NC State/Syracuse ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse -2.5

The Syracuse Orange have been trying to play their way into the NCAA Tournament here down the stretch.  They've done a really good job of coming up clutch and have saved their best basketball for last.

Indeed, the Orange are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Duke and Georgia Tech.  They are 2-0 SU against NC State this season with a 76-73 home win and a 77-68 road win.  It's not hard to beat a team three times in a season, either.

NC State is now getting too much respect from the books after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite not having their best player in Devon Daniels.  But only one of those wins came against a tournament team with wins over Notre Dame, Pitt (twice) and Wake Forest.  That's far from impressive.

Kevin Keatts is 4-12 ATS when revenging a home loss as the coach of NC State.  The Wolfpack are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday.

15* BYU/Gonzaga ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -14

Gonzaga will be highly motivated to cap off a perfect 26-0 season here and give themselves the opportunity to be the first team since Indiana to go the entire season with an unbeaten record by winning the NCAA Tournament.  Look for them to get the win and cover against BYU today for a number of reasons.

The biggest is that the Bulldogs made easy work of Saint Mary's yesterday in a 78-55 win as 18-point favorites.  They also got to play the early game, and then rest and watch BYU in the late game.  So they will have a rest and preparation advantage here over the Cougars.

Meanwhile, BYU trailed for 95% of the game against Pepperdine and needed a comeback to force overtime.  The Cougars eventually won 82-77 as 8.5-point favorites, but their starters were forced to play big minutes because of it.  They had five difference players play 30 minutes or more.  They were still playing at 2:30 AM EST, and now they have to try and get ready for the Bulldogs for a 9:00 PM EST tip.

Gonzaga beat BYU 86-69 at home and 82-71 on the road in the first two meetings.  Note that both of those games were bigger blowouts than the final score showed.  Gonzaga raced out to a 52-29 lead at halftime in that 17-point home win before calling off the dogs in the 2nd half.  Gonzaga then led BYU 70-49 with under 8 minutes left in the 2nd meeting.  The Cougars outscored them by 10 the rest of the way to only lose by 11.  I don't think the Bulldogs will leave the back door open in this third and final meeting of the season and will cruise to victory.

The Cougars are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as underdogs.  The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  The favorite is 16-6-4 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with Gonzaga Tuesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -8

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have packed it in and are ready for their season to be over.  They have lost seven straight and are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 21 points per game.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off an 83-73 upset home win over Florida State that shows their potential here in the ACC Tournament.  They are the team that cares right now and the one that should win this game in blowout fashion similar to the 79-58 beat down they put on Wake Forest back on February 2nd in their lone meeting this season.

Wake Forest is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in six or more consecutive games.  The Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Notre Dame Tuesday.

20* Oakland/Cleveland State ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland State -2

The Cleveland State Vikings improved to 18-7 SU & 16-8-1 ATS on the season after their come from behind win over Milwaukee 71-65 in the semifinals.  The way they won that game in comeback fashion after beating Fort Wayne in OT has them brimming with confidence and ready to win the Horizon League Championship and punch their spot in the big dance.

I actually think they take a step down in competition here against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies, who are 12-17 SU this season.  The Golden Grizzlies are one of the worst teams you will ever see in a conference title game.

Cleveland State went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Oakland this season, winning and covering both meetings on the road.  Now they should make it a clean 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS sweep of the Golden Grizzlies here on a neutral Tuesday night.

The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  The Vikings are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as favorites.  Cleveland State is 12-0 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make less than 42% of their shots over the last two seasons.  Oakland is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  Bet Cleveland State Tuesday.

20* Pepperdine/BYU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Pepperdine +9

Pepperdine beat Santa Clara 78-70 as 4-point favorites on Saturday in the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament.  They now have a day off in between games and there should be no rust factor with them tonight.

I think there could be a rust factor here for BYU.  The Cougars got a bye into the semifinals and haven't played since February 27th.  They have had the last eight days off now.  At the very least, I expect them to get off to a slow start in this game, which is going to make it difficult for them to win by double-digits and cover this spread.

After losing 54-65 as 11-point underdogs at BYU and shooting just 28.8% as a team, the Waves got their revenge at home in the rematch.  They pulled the 76-73 upset as 6.5-point home dogs over the Cougars despite shooting just 3-of-16 (18.7%) from 3-point range.  So they've proven they can play with BYU twice despite poor shooting.  And just a slight improvement in that department could have them winning this game outright again.

The Waves are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Pepperdine is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Waves are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Pepperdine is 24-11-2 ATS in its last 37 neutral site games as an underdog.  Bet Pepperdine Monday.

20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +8.5

You can pretty much throw out Michigan State's 50-69 loss at Michigan last time out.  The Spartans shot 36.4% as a team including 0-for-9 (0%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

Now the Spartans want revenge against their biggest rivals here and to prove that they are a much better team than they showed on Thursday.  After all, the Spartans had gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five games with upset wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State.

Now the Spartans get the Wolverines at home this time around and it will make a huge difference.  Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season, including those upset wins over Illinois (81-72) as 6.5-point dogs and Ohio State (71-67) as 4-point dogs.  I don't see Michigan being as motivated in the rematch after just beating them by 19, so that letdown factor will help us get the cover here too.

The Spartans are 54-23-3 ATS in their last 80 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Michigan State is 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Michigan.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +8

The Baylor Bears have been overvalued since returning from a three-week COVID break.  The Bears are 1-3 ATS in their last four games since returning.  They only beat Iowa State by 5 as 24-point favorites, lost to Kansas by 13 as 4.5-point favorites and failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites against Oklahoma State.  Their only cover was an overtime win as 3.5-point favorites at West Virginia, so they should be 0-4 ATS.

I'll gladly fade the Bears again here as they continue to be overvalued as 8-point home favorites over Texas Tech.  This is a Red Raiders team improving rapidly down the stretch under one of the best head coaches in the country in Chris Beard.  And you know they are going to want revenge from a 60-68 home loss to the Bears earlier this season.

Texas Tech is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with a 9-point win over Texas as 3.5-point favorites, a 20-point win over TCU as 13-point favorites and a 27-point win over Iowa State as 17.5-point favorites.  It has been hard to get margin on the Red Raiders as they have only been beaten by more than 8 points once in their last 22 games overall.  That makes for a 21-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread.  Take Texas Tech Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +10.5

The Memphis Tigers (15-6) are trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Houston today would cement their spot in the Big Dance.  And they have been playing well enough here down the stretch to give the Cougars all they can handle.

The Tigers are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to SMU 65-67.  Six of those nine wins have come by double-digits.  They have the confidence right now to hang with Houston.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cougars.  While the Tigers are getting zero respect here for what they have done recently, the Cougars are getting a ton of respect for their recent results.  They just beat Cincinnati by 38, WKU by 24 and USF by 36 in their last three games coming in with three straight covers.  They aren't going to get that kind of margin on this much better Memphis squad.

Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  Memphis has just one loss to Houston by double-digits in the last 16 meetings, making for a 15-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Memphis Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +12.5

The Creighton Bluejays are going through some turmoil right now with head coach Doug McDermott using the word plantation recently.  He said it following their 69-77 loss to Xavier two games ago, and they proceeded to trail by as many as 22 points in a 60-72 loss to Villanova in their last game.  McDermott has since offered to resign.

I just don't trust the state of this Bluejays' team right now, and they certainly shouldn't be laying 12.5 points to a Butler team that already beat them 70-66 at home earlier this season as 7-point dogs.  So now the Bluejays are 12.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment that is not warranted.

That's especially the case when you consider the Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are coming off two straight upset wins over Seton Hall (61-52) as 7.5-point dogs and Villanova (73-61) as 11.5-point dogs.  And they've been off since February 28th, so they are rested and ready to go.  Creighton just played on March 3rd and has only two days to get ready for this game.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Butler) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 42-19 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bluejays are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Take Butler Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2

Ohio State is my favorite play of the entire 2020-21 college basketball season Saturday.  I just love the spot for them.  I know they are going to put forth their best effort of the season after coming in off three consecutive losses.  They hadn't even lost two in a row at any other point this season until now.

So it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Buckeyes off those three straight losses, and a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois off three consecutive wins and covers.  The last two were in upset fashion as they won at Wisconsin and at Michigan despite not having their best player in Ayo Dosunmu (21 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG).  He is likely to be out again for this game as the Fighting Illini already have the No. 2 seed locked up in the Big Ten Tournament.

Ohio State has a lot to play for here as it is battling with Purdue for 4th place in the Big Ten, and the top for teams all get double-byes in the Big Ten Tournament.  It's also Senior Day for the Buckeyes.  And they are the more rested team having five days to get ready for this game since last losing to Iowa on February 28th.  Illinois only has three days to get ready after beating Michigan on March 2nd.  That win over Michigan, coupled with being locked into the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten, has the Fighting Illini primed for a letdown today.

The extra rest was needed for the Buckeyes.  "Our whole team needs rest and we've got to get healthy," head coach Chris Holtmann said. "We had basically a third of our team that wasn't able to really practice much at all last week, or at least very limited.  We've got to get as much as we can, get healthy and back to practicing and then move forward and recognize and own those things we've got to get done better collectively."

Senior forward Kyle Young returned from injury for the Iowa game but wasn't at his best.  He should be much sharper with the extra time to get ready for this game.  Ohio State is 4-1 SU in its last five meetings with Illinois, including an 87-81 road win in their first meeting this season.  Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when revenging an upset loss as a favorite.  The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Ohio State is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -6.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three wins by double-digits and a 4-point win over Wisconsin as a 2-point favorite.

Indiana has gone the other direction, playing its way out of the NCAA Tournament by going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with all four losses by 6 points or more.  Things got worse for the Hoosiers recently with the loss of second-leading scorer Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG, 45% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury.  The Hoosiers already rely too heavily on Jackson-Davis to get their offense, and now without Franklin (doubtful) that is even more the case.  Race Thompson (9.6 PPG) is also questionable for this one.

Purdue already beat Indiana 81-69 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with six of the last seven wins coming by 7 points or more.  And the Boilermakers won't have a letdown in the rematch.  They are trying to clinch the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten, meaning they'd get a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament as each of the top four seeds are awarded one.  It's also Senior Day for the Boilermakers.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

20* Indiana State/Loyola-Chicago MVC No-Brainer on Indiana State +11

I cashed in Indiana State yesterday and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons.  This team just does not get the respect they deserves from oddsmakers and hasn't been for a few months now.

While Loyola-Chicago and Drake grab all the headlines in the Missouri Valley, it's Indiana State that has been just as good as both here down the stretch.  The Sycamores are 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And prior to this stretch they upset Loyola-Chicago 76-71 as 8-point dogs and lost 48-58 as 8-point dogs in the rematch, so they've already proven they can play with the Ramblers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Ramblers due to being ranked in the Top 25 after going 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall.  But they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with very few blowout victories in there.  That's with the exception of their 73-49 win over Southern Illinois yesterday, which they are being overvalued for.  Southern Illinois was missing its top two scorers and had no chance of even being competitive in that game.  This is a huge step up in class for the Ramblers today.

Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 60 points or fewer in its previous game.  The Sycamores are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Indiana State has lost just one of its last 18 games by more than 10 points, which was a 12-point loss in the season finale to Valpo after beating them by 15 the previous day.  They didn't care about that game, and they didn't have their best player in Tyreke Key (17.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG), who returned to score 19 points and grab nine boards against Evansville yesterday..  That makes for a 17-1 system backing the Sycamores pertaining to this 11-point spread.  Take Indiana State Saturday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -9

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have won five straight games and are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have put together this streak under the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  They are still a bubble team right now and that's why I'm not worried about them having a letdown following the big win over Duke on Tuesday.

Wake Forest has totally packed it in.  The Demon Deacons have lost six straight with each of the last five losses coming by 13 points or more.  They lost by 13 to Pitt, by 38 to Virginia Tech, by 21 to Clemson, by 18 to NC State and by 24 to Duke.  Those five losses have come by an average of 22.8 points per game.

Georgia Tech already beat Wake Forest 70-54 as a 9-point home favorite in their first meeting this season.  The Yellow Jackets are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Demon Deacons.  Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Bet Georgia Tech Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Indiana State -5

Loyola-Chicago and Drake get all the headlines in the Missouri Valley.  But Indiana State has quietly been one of the most dominant teams in the conference here down the stretch.  And they should make easy work of Evansville in their conference tournament opener Friday afternoon.

The Sycamores are 10-2 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Two of those games were against Evansville.  They won 76-70 at Evansville and 87-73 at home in the rematch.  And now they are laying just 5 points here against the Purple Aces.

While the Sycamores are surging right now, the Purple Aces are just 1-7 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  All seven of those losses came by 6 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive as well.

Indiana State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 60 points or less.  Evansville is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Sycamores are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Indiana State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -2.5

The UCF Knights are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their only losses came by a combined 2 points with one-point losses to both Cincinnati (68-69) and Wichita State (60-61), which is how close they are to being on a seven-game winning streak.

Now the Knights should make easy work of an East Carolina team coming off nearly a month layoff due to COVID.  Of course they are going to be rusty having last played on February 8th.  This athletic Knights team will test their conditioning from the first tip.

UCF won 71-64 at home over East Carolina in the first meeting this season to improve 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings with all 10 wins coming by 3 points or more.  East Carolina is 0-7 ATS when attempting to revenge a road loss this season.  Enough said.  Bet UCF Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +17.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten down the stretch.  They are making big strides under Fred Hoiberg, one of the best coaches in the country.  He is proving his coaching chops with this team down the stretch.

Indeed, the Huskers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins over Penn State as 11-point road dogs, Minnesota as 2.5-point home dogs and Rutgers (by 21) as 8-point dogs.  They also covered in an 8-point loss at Maryland as 10.5-point dogs, in a 3-point loss to Penn State as 6.5-point dogs and in a 5-point overtime loss to Illinois as 14-point dogs.  Nebraska hasn't lost any of its last 14 games by more than 18 points, and any of its last 10 games by more than 17 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.

Iowa is way overvalued now after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall, including a shocking 73-57 win at Ohio State as underdogs last time out.  Now this is a sandwich spot for them coming off two straight games against Michigan (lost by 22) and Ohio State, and with huge rival Wisconsin on deck Sunday.  I don't expect the Hawkeyes to play with the kind of effort needed to put away Nebraska by 18-plus points tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Nebraska) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 42-18 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Nebraska Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +12

I've been riding this Michigan State train and I'm not about to stop now as the books have undervalued them yet again here Thursday as 12-point underdogs to the Michigan Wolverines.  This is simply too many points for a Spartans team that is once again improving late in the season under Tom Izzo, which seems to happen every year.

Fighting to make the NCAA Tournament, the Spartans have come through in a big way in going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes upset wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State as underdogs as well as a second win over Indiana.  Now they are ready to take on a team like Michigan.

The Wolverines showed they were vulnerable last game by losing 53-76 at home to Illinois as 8.5-point favorites.  That was an Illinois team playing without Ayo Dosunmu, their best player.  Michigan State recently beat Illinois with Dosunmu in the lineup 81-72 as 6.5-point home dogs.  Now Michigan would be without its best player in Isaiah Livers (14.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG), who is questionable with an ankle injury suffered in that loss to Illinois.

The Spartans are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Michigan.  They haven't lost any of the last seven meetings by more than 11 points, making for a 7-0 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 12-point spread.  They won't go down without a fight tonight.  Roll with Michigan State Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +12

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are playing their best basketball of the season right now and should not be catching 12 points from Baylor.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma (twice).  They haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points.

Now they take on a Baylor team that just hasn't been playing well since returning from a three-week COVID pause.  The Bears only beat Iowa State by 5 as 24-point favorites, lost outright by 13 at Kansas as 4.5-point favorites, and were fortunate to win by 5 at West Virginia in overtime and cover the 3.5-point spread last time out.

Now the Bears in a very tough spot here as they have had just one day to get ready for Oklahoma State.  They had to travel all the way from West Virginia on Tuesday night back to Baylor.  So they are going to be a tired team, especially after needing OT to beat West Virginia.  It's hard to imagine they will be in great shape physically after that COVID pause already, which has played a big role in their recent struggles.

Oklahoma State comes in on two days' rest and highly motivated for revenge after letting the first meeting with Baylor get away from them late in the 2nd half, turning a close game into a 15-point loss.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Plays on road teams (Oklahoma State) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against an opponent that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.

15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -4.5

Oregon has come out the other side of their early COVID problems and are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road at USC.  This run has put themselves in position to win the Pac-12 and steal the title from UCLA with wins in their final two regular season games.

UCLA is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall and faltering here down the stretch.  The Bruins choked in their last game with a 61-70 loss at Colorado, blowing a 57-55 lead with 8:11 remaining.  They couldn't handle the pressure of trying to win the Pac-12 in that game, and I don't expect them to handle it very well here at Oregon either.

The home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings in this series, including a 96-75 home win for Oregon over UCLA last year.  The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  UCLA is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  The Ducks are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games.  Oregon is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Oregon Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -4

This looks like the perfect spot to back Villanova.  We will 'buy low' on the Wildcats after they just lost outright to Butler as an 11.5-point favorite.  They had beaten St. John's and Connecticut by a combined 31 points in their two games prior.  

So the lost to Butler was clearly an aberration.  The Wildcats were probably looking ahead to this game against Creighton.  They want revenge on the Bluejays in a big way.  They lost 70-86 at Creighton on February 13th about three weeks ago.  Everything went right for Creighton in that game as they shot 59.3% from the field and 46.2% from 3-point range compared to just 37.5% shooting for Villanova.  That's not going to happen again.

Villanova is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 16.1 points per game.  Creighton is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games, including an 8-point loss at Xavier last time out.  The Wildcats are 35-15-2 ATS int heir last 52 games following an ATS loss.

It's also worth noting Creighton is dealing with some turmoil within their program.  Head coach Doug McDermott used the word 'plantation' while ripping his team and had to come out and apologize for it.  At the very least it's a distraction they don't need right now.  At the most it will have caused some chemistry issues.  Either way I love the spot for the Wildcats.  Take Villanova Wednesday.

20* Wisconsin/Purdue ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Purdue -2

The Purdue Boilermakers are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Two of their losses came by a combined 4 points on the road while the other was a home loss to Michigan, which is the best team in the Big Ten.

Now the Boilermakers have their sights set on a Wisconsin team that is struggling mightily to score the basketball right now.  The Badgers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They haven't topped 69 points in any of their last six games, and they have been held to 72 or fewer points in 13 consecutive games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Purdue is 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Wisconsin.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the only exception being Purdue's upset win at Wisconsin a few years back.

Wisconsin is 1-7 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  Take Purdue Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -2.5

The Michigan State Spartans are making a run at the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite being underdogs in all four games.  They upset both Illinois and Ohio State at home during this stretch.

The other win was a 78-71 win at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs.  That line was way off, and this line still is off with the Spartans being only 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  The Spartans are surging right now, while the Hoosiers are falling flat on their faces under the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament.

Indeed, Indiana is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  Its only win during this stretch came at home against Minnesota, which remains winless in Big Ten play.  They lost by 19 at Ohio State, by 7 at home to Michigan State, by 11 at Rutgers and by 16 at home to Michigan.

Trayce Jackson-Davis had 34 points against Michigan State in that first meeting, and it still wasn't enough.  That's because he just doesn't have much help on the perimeter.  And making matters worse is the fact that the Hoosiers just lost their best guard in Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to an ankle injury, and he will be out tonight.  They will miss his 45% shooting from 3-point range as none of their other regulars shoot it better than 39%.

Michigan State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Indiana with 15 of those wins coming by 3 points or more.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets want revenge from a 68-75 loss at Duke on January 26th.  I like their chances of getting that revenge at home this time around when you consider how well they are playing right now, plus the fact that they simply do not lose at home.

The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only loss came on the road by 2 as 4-point dogs at Clemson.  They have since won four straight with 6 and 7-point home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, respectively, plus blowout road wins over Miami by 27 and Virginia Tech by 16.

Duke suffered a crushing overtime loss to Louisville last time out on February 27th.  They had won four straight against a pretty soft schedule prior to that.  Now they have almost no chance of making the NCAA tournament with that Louisville defeat without making a run in the ACC Tournament.

The task is a very tall one here for the Blue Devils, who hit the road and face a Georgia Tech team that is 13-1 SU in its last 14 ACC home games.  It's a veteran Yellow Jackets team that is highly motivated to make the NCAA Tournament.  This senior-laden team is primed for one of their best performances of the season here on Senior Night.

Georgia Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following three or more consecutive wins.  Duke is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Blue Devils are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Air Force +19

Air Force will be out for revenge from a 49-72 road loss at Colorado on Saturday.  That was a 41-46 game with just under 10 minutes to play, so it turned from a 5-point game into a 23-point game in the final 10 minutes.  I know because I had Air Force +18 and it was a tough beat.

But I'm back on the Falcons today in the rematch.  I was surprised to see Colorado State shoot so well in their first game back from a three-week COVID pause.  That shot 61% from the field and 9-of-22 (40.9%) from 3-point range.  That's the kind of effort it took for them to cover that massive number.

Conversely, Air Force shot just 41.5% as a team and 5-of-21 (23.8%) from 3-point range.  They are a better shooting team than that as they make 34.2% from 3-point range on the season and should improve in that department.  Just a slight improvement shooting and slightly worse effort from the Rams in the shooting department will have the Falcons covering this 19-point spread tonight.

Air Force is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games after a game with 16 or fewer rebounds.  That first meeting was a very low-possession game as both teams attempted only 41 shots.  Low-possession games definitely favor the underdog and make it tougher for the favorite to cover lofty spreads like this one.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Air Force) after going under the total by 24 points or more in thier last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 30 or more points in their last five game sure 80-36 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Air Force Monday.

15* Oklahoma/Oklahoma State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -1.5

The Oklahoma Sooners will be out for revenge from a 90-94 (OT) loss to Oklahoma State Saturday.  They don't have to wait long to get their revenge here as they get to face the rival Cowboys just two days later.  I think the Sooners will be the more motivated team and will get the job done tonight.

The Sooners had won eight of their previous nine games before losing their last two.  The Cowboys have won four straight now and will be feeling fat and happy after beating the Sooners on Saturday.  And I like the line value on the Sooners based on line from the first meeting.  Oklahoma goes from being a 6-point home favorite to a 1.5-point road favorite in the rematch.

The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after three or more consecutive wins.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Sooners.  Take Oklahoma Monday.

20* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -3.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are on their first two-game losing streak of the entire season.  They lost to Michigan and Michigan State by a combined nine points their last two games while letting both games slip away late.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory here at home against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

While I believe Ohio State is absolutely legit and one of the best teams in the country, the Iowa Hawkeyes are frauds.  They rely too much on one player in Luka Garza, and they always seem to fade late in the season.  That has been the case again this season as they have gone just 5-5 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are coming off a 22-point loss at Michigan.

Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they just lost backup center Jack Nunge (7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG) to a season-ending injury in that loss to Michigan.  He was huge for this team in backing up Garza because he's always in foul trouble.  The Buckeyes should be able to expose an already soft Iowa defense today.

They did just that in their 89-85 road win at Iowa in their first meeting this season.  That was a rare road win in this series as the home team had won and covered four straight meetings prior.  The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with Iowa with their last two wins coming by 20 and 18 points.

Ohio State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  The Hawkeyes are 20-41-2 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Iowa is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buckeyes are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Ohio State is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite.  The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.  Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Michigan State +3

The Michigan State Spartans always seem to improve down the stretch under Tom Izzo.  And they have been doing the same this season as they try and get themselves into the NCAA Tournament field.  This team is playing inspired basketball right now and is exactly the type of team I want to continue backing.

Indeed, the Spartans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an upset 78-71 win at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs, an upset 82-71 home win over Illinois as 6.5-point dogs and an upset 71-67 home win over Ohio State as 4-point dogs.

Now the Spartans face their weakest opponent in a long time here in Maryland, a team they should be favored against.  The Terrapins are just 14-10 this season.  But they are starting to get respect from oddsmakers due to a four-game winning streak against the bottom of the conference.  They have wins over Nebraska (twice), Minnesota and Rutgers during this stretch.  This is a step up in class here against a Michigan State team that is playing its best basketball of the season.

Michigan State 7-2 SU in its last nine meetings with Maryland with the two losses coming by 3 and 7 points.  The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as underdogs.  The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Terrapins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Maryland is 1-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  The Terrapins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing a road game.  Take Michigan State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +25

Gonzaga is overvalued right now due to its No. 1 ranking and undefeated 23-0 record.  I successfully faded them with Santa Clara +30.5 in 75-89 loss to the Bulldogs on Thursday.  And I'm certainly going to back a better team here in Loyola-Marymount catching 25 points against them tonight.

Loyola-Marymount is 12-7 this season with its largest margin of defeat coming by 17 points to BYU and by 15 to Minnesota.  So the Lions haven't even come close do losing by this kind of margin all season.  I get that it's Gonzaga and their best opponent yet, but it's still too many points.

The Lions are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game as well.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset road wins over both San Francisco 68-63 as 5.5-point dogs and Pepperdine 81-74 as 5-point dogs.

Few teams in the WCC have played Gonzaga as tough as Loyola-Marymount in recent years.  Indeed, four of the last five meetings were decided by 18 points or less with the Lions going 4-1 ATS in those five meetings.

Loyola-Marymount is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games after playing their last game on the road.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Loyola-Marymount Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State PK

The Iowa State Cyclones have been knocking on the door of their first Big 12 victory.  They are 0-14 in Big 12 play, but 8-6 ATS as they have several close losses against some of the top teams in the conference.  They will be highly motivated to erase that zero from the win column today, and I believe it's their best chance to get a victory all season.

Iowa State has losses to Baylor by 5 and 11 points, WVU by 4 and 5 points, Texas by 6, and Oklahoma by 7 and 10 points.  They can play with anyone in this conference.  Now they will be looking for revenge from a 76-79 loss at TCU on February 9th in their first meeting this season.  They simply went cold from the field in the 2H and allowed the Horned Frogs to come back on them.  This team keeps playing hard, and eventually the breaks are going to fall their way late in games.  I think that is today.

TCU is just 2-8 SU in its last 10 games overall with its two wins both coming at home by a combined 6 points, including that 3-point win over the Cyclones.  Seven of the eight losses have come by 8 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Iowa State is a sensational 31-5 ATS in its last 36 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  TCU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a home conference loss.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +19

I cashed in Southern Illinois +20 yesterday in a 60-52 loss to Loyola-Chicago with the spread never in doubt.  I'm back on them today for many of the same reasons in the rematch.

Loyola-Chicago is overvalued right now after going 13-1 in its last 14 games overall.  I've been 'selling high' on this team a lot lately, and I'm not going to stop today as this line is once again way out of hand with the Ramblers being 19-point favorites against a very competitive Southern Illinois team.

The Ramblers went 7-0-1 ATS in their first eight games during this 14-game run, but they weren't more than 11.5-point favorites in any of those games.  Since they have 18-point favorites or higher four times and failed to cover in all four of those games.  I cased in Evansville +18.5 and +18 in 13 and 11-point losses, respectively.  I also cashed in Valpo +19 in their 2-point loss and then Southern Illinois +20 in their 8-point loss.

It's still a good time to 'buy low' on Southern Illinois after going just 4-12 SU in their last 16 games overall.  But the Salukis have just two losses all season by the kind of margin its going to take for Loyola-Chicago to cover this ridiculous number.  In their two games prior to this series they lost to Valpo by 1 and beat them by 3 in the rematch to give them a recent common opponent.

Loyola-Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 45% or higher after 15-plus games.  The Ramblers play at a slow tempo and have been held to 60 or fewer points in three straight games coming in.  It's difficult for them to cover these huge numbers when they play at such a slow tempo and don't get many shots up.  The Ramblers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points.  Take Southern Illinois Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +18

This is a great spot to fade the Colorado State Rams.  They will be rusty as they will be returning from a three-week COVID break with their last game played on February 6th.  They won't be sharp enough to put away Air Force by 18-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this ridiculous spread.

Air Force is undervalued right now due to its 5-17 SU record.  But the Falcons finally put an end to their 10-game losing streak with a win over New Mexico last time out.  And they have been competitive during this skid with each of their last seven losses coming by 13 points or fewer.

Air Force is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points.  The Falcons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  Roll with Air Force Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -4

The Wisconsin Badgers want revenge from a 60-75 road loss at Illinois on February 6th earlier this month.  I like their chances of getting that revenge considering Illinois is without its best player for this game, and arguably the best player in the country.

Ayo Dosunmu (21.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG) is out with a broken nose right now.  I think the Fighting Illini are getting too much respect from the books after covering as 14-point favorites over Nebraska in an 86-70 win in their first game without him.  This will be a much taller task against the Badgers today.  Dosunmu became the third player in Illinois history with a triple double with 21 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds in that first meeting.

While Illinois has just one day to get ready for Wisconsin after playing Nebraska on Thursday, the Badgers have had the last five days off to get ready for the Fighting Illini.  That huge rest and preparation advantage will pay big dividends for the Badgers this afternoon.

The Badgers are 56-36 ATS in their last 92 home games after a win by 15 points or more.  The favorite is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +20

Loyola-Chicago is way overvalued right now after going 12-1 SU in its last 13 games overall.  I've been 'selling high' on this team a lot lately, and I'm not going to stop today as this line is way out of hand with the Ramblers being 20-point favorites over a very competitive Southern Illinois team.

The Ramblers went 7-0-1 ATS in their first eight games during this 13-game run, but they weren't more than 11.5-point favorites in any of those games.  Since they have been 18-point favorites or higher three times and failed to cover all three of those games.  I cashed in Evansville +18.5 and +18 in 13 and 11-point losses, respectively.  And last time out I cashed in Valpo as 19-point dogs in a 2-point loss to Loyola-Chicago.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on Southern Illinois after going just 4-11 SU in its last 15 games overall.  But the Salukis have just two losses all season by the kind of margin its going to take for Loyola-Chicago to cover this ridiculous number.  And they just lost by 1 and beat Valpo by 3 in their last two games to give them a common opponent with the Ramblers.

Southern Illinois is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  Loyola-Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 45% or higher after 15-plus games.

Plays on road teams (Southern Illinois) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games are 70-35 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Southern Illinois Friday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +4

The Michigan State Spartans have finally turned the corner and are making a late-season push to make the NCAA Tournament.  Tom Izzo-coached teams always get better as the season goes on, and it's finally happening for this Spartans team.

They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Indiana 78-71 as 6.5-point road underdogs and Illinois 81-72 as 6.5-point home underdogs.  Now they find themselves catching 4 points at home to Ohio State tonight in a game they should be favored in.

This is a tough spot for Ohio State.  They are coming off a deflating 87-92 home loss to their biggest rivals in the Michigan Wolverines.  It pretty much assured that they wouldn't be winning the Big Ten this season.  They blew a late lead in that game.  I think they will have a hard time getting back up off the mat to face Michigan State tonight.  Plus, they will be without one of their better players in Kyle Young (8.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG), who is out with a concussion suffered against Michigan.

Michigan State is 15-4 SU in its last 19 home meetings with Ohio State.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after going over the total in two or more consecutive games.  Michigan State is 53-23-3 ATS in its last 79 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Spartans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as home underdogs.   Take Michigan State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +12

This game means a lot more to Western Kentucky (15-4) than it does Houston.  The Hilltoppers could get into the NCAA Tournament with an upset win here.  They are a senior-laden team that returned all five starters and a win over No. 12 Houston would really help their cause.

"These kinds of opportunities are something that we kind of cherish a little bit," Hilltoppers coach Rick Stansbury said. "You don't get a lot of them. Sometimes you've got to back into them every once in a while.  It's very obvious if you watched them Sunday you can understand why there aren't a lot of takers to go to Houston opportunity-wise, we just felt like there is a lot more to gain than there is to lose.  As a coach, as a player, everybody else, you just want an opportunity to play against the best, and there's no doubt they are one of the best teams in the country.  It's very obviously a great challenge for us, but at the same time a great opportunity."

I think that quote says all you need to know about what this game means for the Hilltoppers as they will be more motivated for a win in this game than at any other point all season.  They've already shown they can play with some elite teams.  They only lost by 6 to West Virginia on a neutral and actually upset Alabama on the road.  That win over Alabama looks really good right about now.

The Hilltoppers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs.  Western Kentucky is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Cougars have recent upset losses to Wichita State 63-68 and East Carolina 73-82, so they are far from invincible.  And they shouldn't be laying double-digits here against this underrated Hilltoppers squad.  Roll with Western Kentucky Thursday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE MONTH on Santa Clara +30.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking and their unbeaten 22-0 record comes a following from the betting public that makes them overvalued.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs tonight.

Santa Clara (10-6) is one of the better teams in the conference and very capable of staying within this ridiculous 30.5-point spread.  Their largest loss of the entire season came by 23 points, and that was at USC.  If they can stay within 23 points of that very good USC team, you have to like their chances of covering this huge number.

Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less this season.  The Bulldogs are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  They have covered each of their last three games and are overvalued because of it.  It's time to fade them.  Bet Santa Clara Thursday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami +11.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Miami Hurricanes tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in including a 60-87 loss to Georgia Tech last time out.  Now the Hurricanes are in their largest underdog role (+11.5) of the entire season tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Florida State Seminoles.  They have won three straight and eight of their last nine coming in.  But they are just 2-2 SU in true road games this season with a 10-point loss to Clemson and an 11-point loss at Georgia Tech.  They only beat Pitt by 7 on the road and won by 13 at Louisville in their one standout road performance.

Miami is going to want revenge from a 59-81 road loss at Florida State as 11.5-point underdogs on January 27th.  The Hurricanes have gotten a lot healthier since that point and are now catching 11.5 points again at home this time around.  So there has been zero adjustment for home-court advantage and there should be at least a little.

Miami recently upset Duke 77-75 as 11-point home dogs and took Virginia Tech to OT as 5-point home dogs in two of its last three home games.  They also upset Louisville as 4.5-point home dogs.  They have played their best basketball at home this season.

The Seminoles are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games into the season.  The Hurricanes are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Take Miami Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulane +11.5

I've been riding this Tulane train and will continue to do so Wednesday.  The Green Wave are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven't lost any of those seven games by more than 8 points.

Their only non-cover came by 1.5 points in a 3-point loss to UCF as 1.5-point underdogs.  UCF couldn't miss as they went 14-of-26 from 3-point range, yet the Green Wave still managed to make a game of it and only lose by 3 points.  That's just how well they are playing right now.

Now the Green Wave take on a Memphis team that has been off since February 6th due to a COVID break.  We saw Memphis return from a similar length COVID break last time and lose outright to Tulsa.  There will be a similar rust factor involved in this return as well, and they should not be laying this big of a number to a Tulane team playing their best basketball of the season.  It's also worth noting Tulane only lost by 6 to Memphis at home in their first meeting this season and will want some revenge.

Memphis spent 10 of the days doing zero team activities and conditioning.  Penny Hardaway noted how out of shape his players were when they returned to practice finally.  And I think the Tigers are just getting too much respect right now after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won't return the same team they were prior to this COVID pause.

Tulane is 7-0 ATS in in its last seven games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Tulane is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  The Green Wave are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Green Wave.  Take Tulane Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +5.5

The Temple Owls will be out for revenge from a 76-83 home loss to South Florida on Sunday.  Now the Owls get their shot at revenge and come back as 5.5-point underdogs after being just 2-point dogs in their first meeting.  This is too big of an adjustment.

Temple committed 17 turnovers compared to just 7 for South Florida in the first meeting, which was the difference.  They won't be so sloppy with the ball as the Bulls rarely force turnovers at this kind of rate.  In fact, the 17 turnovers were the most they forced in any game all season.  And Temple had 14 or fewer turnovers in nine of their previous 11 games, so they do a pretty good job of holding onto it.

Temple is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 road games off a home loss.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet Temple Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri -3

The Missouri Tigers want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season just two weeks ago.  They lost 59-80 at Ole Miss on February 10th.  The Tigers now come back as only 3-point home favorites in the rematch, and I look for them to get their revenge and cover this short number.

Missouri is 8-2 at home this season with wins over the likes of Alabama and Illinois.  Ole Miss is 4-5 on the road this season and coming off a poor 56-66 home loss to Mississippi State.  They had won four straight prior to that defeat, which I think has them overvalued.  

Plus the fact that they already beat Missouri by 21 has them overvalued as well.  Missouri is undervalued after losing three of its last four, but it ended a three-game skid with a 15-point win at South Carolina last time out.

Ole Miss is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after winning two of its last three games coming in.  The Rebels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Ole Miss is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Missouri Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +23

Baylor makes its long-awaited return from a three-week COVID break as they have been off since February 2nd.  There will be some rust involved, and they have no business laying 23 points to Iowa State in their first game back from the break.

The Cyclones have showed some fight and will continue to battle to try and earn that first Big 12 victory.  That's especially the case playing the No. 2 team in the country here in Baylor.  And the Cyclones have quietly posted a winning ATS record (7-6) in Big 12 play this season.

Their recent efforts including a 4-point loss to WVU as 11.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Oklahoma as 14-point dogs, a 3-point loss to TCU as 4.5-point dogs and a 10-point loss to Oklahoma as 11.5-point dogs.  They have lost just one of their last seven games by more than 18 points.

Iowa State already showed they could hang with Baylor in their 65-76 loss as 15.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 23-point dogs in the rematch, a 7.5-point adjustment that has no basis, especially with the awful spot for Baylor coming back from a COVID break.

The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Iowa state is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after failing to cover three of its last four ATS coming in.  The Cyclones are 61-38 ATS in their last 99 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +7

The Michigan State Spartans won't be packing it in any time soon under Tom Izzo.  They still have a shot to make the tournament.  And their 78-71 upset win as 6.5-point dogs at Indiana last time out helped.  Now a signature win over a Top 5 Illinois team would go a long way to helping their cause tonight.

We've seen the Illini be vulnerable in two of their last three games against Big Ten bottom feeders.  They needed overtime to beat Nebraska 77-72 as 14-point favorites.  They also struggled to put away Northwestern at home in a 73-66 win as 13-point favorites.

Illinois hasn't won any of its last 14 meetings with Michigan State by more than 7 points.  That makes for a 14-0 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Michigan State is 52-23-3 ATS in its last 78 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Spartans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -3

It's a good time to 'buy low' on Saint Louis off their worst loss of the season a 53-76 loss at Dayton as 6-point favorites.  They had been rolling with four straight victories by a combined 69 points prior to that setback.  They shot just 27.1% from the field against Dayton, and that's not going to happen again here.

Look for Saint Louis to get back on track against VCU here Tuesday.  They face a Rams team coming off an upset loss 76-79 as 9-point favorites against George Mason.  And the news gets worse as they lost their best player in Nah-Shon Hyland (19.2 PPG) to a foot injury late in that game.  They won't have his services tonight, and it's a huge loss for the Rams that isn't being factored into this line enough.

The Billikens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 20 points.  VCU is 0-6 ATS vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  VCU is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 games as an underdog, including 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog.  Take Saint Louis Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Southern Illinois -1.5

Southern Illinois will be out for revenge from a tough 65-66 home loss as 2-point favorites against Valparaiso yesterday.  Now the Salukis come back as 1.5-point favorites in the rematch.  I think they get their revenge with a win and cover today.

Southern Illinois has been great at getting revenge in these situations recently.  In fact, they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three tries in this situation after losing the first game of these double-headers.  After losing 62-74 to UNI, they won 71-68 on the rematch.  After losing 66-74 at Bradley, they won 69-68 in the rematch.  And after losing 55-80 to Illinois State, they won 59-49 in the rematch.

The last time Valpo won the first game of the double-head, they lost the second game.  They won 70-57 at UNI before losing 60-74 in the rematch.  And I think we see more of the same here from these two teams with the Salukis getting the job done in the rematch and the Crusaders letting up and faltering.

The Salukis are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Crusaders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.  Valparaiso is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog.  Take Southern Illinois Monday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Evansville +11.5

Evansville lost 71-85 at Drake yesterday.  Now the Purple Aces come back as 11.5-point underdogs in the rematch today.  They will be the more motivated team, and there's several reasons to believe they will improve off that effort.

For starters, Drake shot 65.4% as a team and 11-of-21 (52.4%) from 3-point range.  They had a player come off the bench and score 32 points on 12-of-14 shooting and 5-of-7 from 3-point range.  Evansville only made 5-of-21 (23.8%) from 3-point range.  None of those things are likely to happen again, and it's actually impressive they only lost by 14 with all of those factors.

Evansville just doesn't get blown out very often.  That 14-point loss was their third-largest defeat all season.  The other two came to Bradley and Louisville.  They stayed within 13 of Loyola-Chicago in both their meetings.  And I think they improve upon yesterday's effort and take Drake to the wire today.  

Especially with Drake beating without leading scorer Hemphill (14.1 PPG) and with second-leading scorer Penn (11.2 PPG) questionable.  They are short-handed right now and will struggle in this back-to-back situation.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Evansville) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%), after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher are 33-13 (71.7%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Evansville Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Iowa Hawkeyes after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They had gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous five games prior to this streak.  The only difference is that they have shot it much better and their opponents have not.

It's also time to 'buy low' on Penn State after going 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  Two of those losses came by a combined 3 points and the other was a 10-point loss to Ohio State, which is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now.

Penn State has been better than its 7-11 record would indicate.  Eight of the 11 losses have come by 10 points or less.  And I think they have a great chance to stay within this 11.5-point spread of the Hawkeyes, who just don't play enough defense to put teams away consistently.

Penn State is 3-2 SU in its last five meetings with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes haven't beaten the Nittany Lions by more than 11 points in any of their last seven meetings, making for a perfect 7-0 system backing Penn State pertaining to this 11.5-point spread.  The Nittany Lions are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as road underdogs.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

20* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State +2

The Ohio State Buckeyes should not be home underdogs to the Michigan Wolverines today.  The Buckeyes are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points.  That includes road wins over Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland and Penn State during this stretch.

Michigan struggled to beat Wisconsin and Rutgers in its two games since returning from a three-week break due to COVID.  I think there's still some rust here with the Wolverines, and they won't be able to beat an Ohio State team that is playing better than anyone else in the Big Ten right now.  Yet the Buckeyes continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

Ohio State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Michigan.  That includes a 77-63 win last year.  The Buckeyes are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego +32.5

The lack of action due to COVID and the 3-7 SU record has the San Diego Toreros undervalued right now.  That has been evident in their most recent games as the Toreros are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

They returned from a three-week layoff and upset Santa Clara 71-60 as 6.5-point road underdogs on Thursday.  So the layoff clearly didn't affect them, and they are obviously excited to be back in action.

Now the Toreros will take another shot at Gonzaga after losing 62-90 to the Bulldogs but covering the 29.5-point spread on January 28th in their first meeting.  Now the Toreros are catching 32.5 points in the rematch, which is too much.  Gonzaga won't be motivated enough to cover this huge number against a team they already beat by 28.

The Toreros are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  San Diego is 32-14 ATS in its last 46 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  The Toreros are 44-22 ATS in their last 64 road games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less of their shots this season.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with San Diego Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +12

The Iowa State Cyclones are 0-12 in Big 12 play this season.  They will keep fighting to try and get that first conference win until they get it, and then they might pack it in.  But until then they want to erase that zero, and they have been playing like it.

They have been pretty competitive as they are 6-6 ATS in Big 12 play.  And one of those covers came in a 72-79 loss at Oklahoma as 14-point dogs.  Now the Cyclones come back as 12-point home dogs in the rematch and I think they can stay within the number again.

It's definitely a great time to 'buy low' on the winless Cyclones and 'sell high' on the Sooners, who have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But their last five wins have all come by 7 points or fewer, so it's not like they are blowing teams out.

Iowa State is 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Oklahoma.  The Sooners are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Oklahoma) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their last game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (20% or less) are 39-11 (78%) ATS since 1997.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on George Mason +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on VCU off six straight victories.  They won four straight games against the class of the Atlantic 10 in Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Bonaventure and Richmond.  And now they have a game on deck at Saint Louis in three days.  That makes this the ultimate sandwich spot for them, and an ideal letdown spot to take the double-digit points with George Mason.

Plus, VCU already beat George Mason 66-61 on the road as 5.5-point favorites on January 6th in their first meeting this season.  So the Rams won't be all that motivated to beat them again.  And we've seen a 5-point line adjustment for flipping home courts, which just goes to show how overvalued VCU is right now.

George Mason comes in playing well having gone 4-3 SU in its last seven games overall.  That includes their 32-point win over Fordham last time out on February 10th.  Now the Patriots have had nine days to get ready for this rematch with VCU.  The Rams only have two days to get ready for this game after beating Richmond on Wednesday.

George Mason is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games when playing with 7 or more days' rest.  The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  VCU has only one win by more than 12 points in its last 10 games, so it's not like they are blowing teams out on the regular.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (George Mason) - off a blowout conference win by 20 points or more against an opponent that's off two straight conference wins are 65-36 (64.4%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Georgia Mason Saturday.

20* Colorado/Oregon ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -3

The Oregon Ducks are now finding their rhythm following a couple COVID pauses.  They only played one game in four weeks from January 10th through February 3rd.  But now they have played four games since returning from their latest break.

After getting upset by Washington State, the Ducks have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS since with their only non-cover coming in a 12-point win over Washington as 12.5-point favorites.  They then went on the road and beat Arizona State 75-64 as a 2-point favorite and Arizona 63-61 as a 1.5-point dog.   Now they want revenge from a 72-79 road loss at Colorado in their first meeting this season.

I like their chances of getting that revenge considering Oregon is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Colorado.  The Buffaloes are coming off a bad 62-71 road loss at California as a 9-point favorite, and they have been awful on the road throughout the years.

Indeed, the Buffaloes are 17-43 ATS in their last 60 road games.  Colorado is 13-39 ATS in its last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is a ridiculous 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Ducks are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Oregon Thursday.

20* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin PK

Wisconsin is coming off a bad 59-67 home loss to Michigan in which they blew a double-digit first half lead.  It's now a great time to 'buy low' on the Badgers, who have been a very resilient team all season.  Indeed, Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU in its six games following a loss this season.  They haven't lost two in a row all year.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Iowa coming off its best performance of the season in a 30-point win over Michigan State.  That followed up a 13-point win over Rutgers.  Now the Hawkeyes are overvalued here as this line is a pick 'em on the road at Wisconsin.  Keep in mind Iowa had gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its previous five games prior to beating Michigan State and Rutgers.

Wisconsin is 27-11 SU in its last 38 meetings with Iowa, including 13-3 SU in its last 16 home meetings.  Iowa is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after two straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers.  The Badgers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a conference loss.  The Badgers are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss overall.  Bet Wisconsin Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +6

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Missouri State.  The Bears are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Two of those wins came against a Bradley team that was missing four of its best players due to suspension.  Two of those wins came against Illinois State, the worst team in the MVC.

And the other win came 65-53 at home over this same Southern Illinois team on February 10th.  Now the Salukis will be the team out for revenge exactly one week later.  And Southern Illinois gets them at home this time around.  They've barely adjusted the line for home-court advantage as Missouri State was a 6.5-point home favorite and now they are a 6-point road favorite.

Southern Illinois is 7-3 SU at home this season.  The Salukis have been great in these revenge spots, too.  They lost to Illinois State by 25 and came back and beat them by 10 in the rematch.  They lost to Northern Iowa by 12 and came back and beat them by 3 in the rematch.  And they lost by 8 at Bradley and came back and beat them by 1 in the rematch in the last three such situations.

Southern Illinois is 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Missouri State.  The Salukis are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing a home game.  Southern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games off a win by 10 points or more.  The Salukis are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games overall.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +20.5

Valparaiso's 8-14 record has them undervalued right now.  They were an awful team in the first half of the season.  But they have been way more competitive of late.  The Crusaders are 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They beat Drake outright by 17 as 13-point dogs and also lost to Drake in OT as 12.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with Drake, they can certainly hang with Loyola-Chicago.

I've been fading the Ramblers with a lot of success lately.  They were overvalued after a stretch in which they went 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS to open conference play.  They have since gone just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  I faded them in both matchups with Evansville as they were 18 and 18.5-point favorites in those two games and failed to cover either.  Valpo is on Evansville's level and should not be catching 20.5 points.

Loyola-Chicago is coming off its two biggest games of the season in a double-header with Drake, their only contender to win the Missouri Valley.  I think this is now a flat spot for the Ramblers after splitting those two games with Drake.  And consider that Valpo was an 11-point underdog in its first meeting with Loyola-Chicago this season.  Now the Crusaders as 20.5-point dogs in the rematch, a 9.5-point adjustment which is simply too much.

The road team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Valparaiso is 42-15 ATS in its last 57 games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Crusaders are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 games when revenging a home loss.  Valparaiso is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after playing its last two games on the road.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -2.5

The UCF Knights are 2-2 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their two losses both came by a single point in games that they covered.  They lost 60-61 to Wichita State, which might be the second-best team in the AAC behind Houston.  They also lost 68-69 at Cincinnati.

The Knights upset Tulsa 65-58 as 5-point road underdogs.  They also barely failed to cover in a 4-point win over Tulane as 4.5-point home favorites.  And now UCF wants revenge from a 61-68 road loss at South Florida back on January 2nd.

The Bulls had to take a month off due to COVID and have come back rusty.  They have played two games since the month layoff.  They lost by 17 at home to Houston.  Then they were upset by Tulane as 5-point home favorites.  That gives these teams in recent common opponent in Tulane in which UCF just beat.

The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings.  The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  UCF is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing its 3rd game in 7 days.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take UCF Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +11

Nebraska was in a clear letdown spot yesterday after ending a long losing streak in Big Ten play with a 62-61 win at Penn State as 11-point underdogs.  That followed up a 72-77 (OT) home loss to Illinois as 14-point dogs.

So the Huskers were playing their best basketball of the season coming into that game against Maryland yesterday.  They promptly fell flat and lost 50-64 as 10.5-point dogs.  Now they come back as 11-point dogs in the rematch and should be much more focused and motivated for revenge.

The Terrapins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Maryland is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Terrapins are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Maryland is 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less this season.  Roll with Nebraska Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +6

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Michigan State Spartans tonight.  They have gone just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  We are getting the Spartans at the bottom of the barrel tonight in terms of line value because of it.

Michigan State will be motivated following a 30-point loss to Iowa.  They will also be motivated for revenge from a 54-55 home loss to Purdue as 6-point home favorites on January 8th.  They blew a 31-16 halftime lead in that game, and they have not forgotten.

Now the Spartans come back as 6-point underdogs in the rematch.  That's a full 12-point adjustment and it's simply too much.  That adjustment alone should show you that there's clearly value on the Spartans tonight in the rematch as you almost never see that big of an adjustment in a head-to-head series.  Especially when home-court advantage isn't worth that much this year.

Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  Purdue is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Boilermakers are 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

20* Washington/Washington State Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington +8

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Washington off five straight losses.  But the Huskies haven't quit on their season as they only lost 61-64 to UCLA as 9.5-point underdogs over the weekend.  And they'll certainly get up for their biggest rivals in Washington State tonight.

That's especially the case with the Huskies wanting revenge from a 62-77 home loss to Washington State as 1.5-point favorites on January 31st.  Now the Huskies come back as 8-point road dogs just two weeks later, which is a 9.5-point adjustment in the line.  There's clearly value in the Huskies in the rematch.

I can see Washington State taking Washington lightly after already beating them by 15.  And it's kind of a flat spot for them anyway after two straight games against ranked opponents in UCLA and USC.  Plus, their best player in Isaac Bonton (18.4 PPG) suffered an ankle injury against USC over the weekend, and even though he is expected to play tonight he won't be 100%.

The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Washington Monday.