20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +14

San Jose State is the single-most underrated team in the country.  The Spartans are 17-1-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have just one loss by more than 14 points all season, so this 14-point spread shows tremendous value.

Boise State is in a bit of a letdown spot here after winning three straight including a 71-62 road win at UNLV last time out.  The Broncos won't be all that motivated to beat the Spartans again after topping them 73-71 as 8.5-point road favorites on December 28th in their first meeting this season.

Meanwhile, the Spartans want revenge from that 2-point defeat to the Broncos, and they have the confidence knowing they can play with them.  They continue to be grossly undervalued tonight catching 14 points.  Bet San Jose State Friday.

20* St. John's/UConn FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 142.5

Two elite defensive teams square off in this huge Big East showdown tonight.  St. John's ranks 4th in adjusted defense and makes every team work on every possession ranking 327th in average length of defensive possession at 18.3 seconds.  They pick up full court and that really gets opponents out of rhythm offensively.

UConn is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is ranking 337th in adjusted tempo and 326th in average length of offensive possession.  Dan Hurley runs plays almost every time down the court, and that takes a lot of time.  The Huskies also rank 279th in average length of defensive possession, so they make opponents work too.

Injury to three guards for UConn will also help us cash this UNDER ticket.  Ahmad Nowell (2.1 PPG) is out, while Aidan Mahaney (5.3 PPG) and Hassan Diara (8.6 PPG) are questionable to play tonight.  And the Huskies just aren't getting that elite guard play that they had the last two seasons in winning the title, which is one of the biggest reasons they aren't as good this season.

St. John's is 5-1 UNDER in its last six games overall with 150 or fewer combined points in seven consecutive games.  UConn and its opponents have combined for 148 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven consecutive games, and 136 or fewer in five of those seven.  These teams combined for 141 and 134 points in their two regular season meetings last season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco +5.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the St. Mary's Gaels tonight.  The Gaels are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  You're now paying a tax to back them due to this winning streak.

The Gaels are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 62-58 home win over their biggest rivals in the Gonzaga Bulldogs last game.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Francisco, which they already beat by 20 at home in their first meeting this season.

But the Dons have been a different animal at home this season.  They are a perfect 14-0 SU at home with their last four home wins all coming by 9 points or more, including a 24-point win over Washington State and an 11-point win over Oregon State.

The Dons have a lot of room for improvement in the shooting department from that first meeting at St. Mary's, which was a 71-51 loss on January 23rd.  The Dons shot just 26.9% from the field while the Gaels shot 61.5%.  It's amazing the Gaels didn't win by more.  There won't be nearly that big of a discrepancy this time around, and I'm expecting the Dons to shoot much better than the 6-of-27 (22.2%) from 3 they shot in that 1st meeting.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +18

The Memphis Tigers have been the kings of playing to their level of competition under Penny Hardaway.  In fact, the Tigers are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -15 or higher.  I always love fading them as big home favorites.

The Tigers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Meanwhile, Tulsa is 3-4 SU but 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.  Their largest loss was by 10 points during this seven-game stretch.  They covered as big road underdogs in both road games.

Tulsa is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Memphis.  The Golden Hurricane haven't lost by more than 12 points in any of their last 12 meetings with the Tigers.  Bet Tulsa Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +18

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Duke Blue Devils.  They are coming off a win over their biggest rivals in the UNC Tar Heels at home on Saturday.  They have another huge game on deck at Clemson this weekend.  This is the sandwich spot, and I expect the Blue Devils to be flat at Syracuse as a result.

You're paying a tax on Duke right now due to their 15-game winning streak.  The Orange are playing their best basketball of the season and are undervalued.  Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and has been competitive in every game.

The Orange upset Notre Dame at home, only lost by 4 to Pitt as 8-point home dogs, and they upset Cal on the road.  They will treat this as their 'National Championship' game tonight with the opportunity to take down the 2nd-ranked team in the country.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday.

20* Iowa State/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 146

Two of the best defensive teams in the Big 12 square off Monday and this total has been set too high.  Iowa State ranks 6th in the country in adjusted defense while allowing just 67.6 points per game and 41.3% shooting.

Kansas ranks 5th in the country in adjusted defense while allowing just 66.7 points per game in 38.5% shooting.  We saw this matchup once already this season with Iowa State winning 74-57 for just 131 combined points on January 15th.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The UNDER would be 5-1 in Iowa State's last six games overall if not for OT against Arizona.  The Cyclones and their opponents have combined for 142 or fewer points at the end of regulation in five of their last six games.  Iowa State being without its best shooter in Moncilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has hurt offensively.  The Cyclones were held to 61 points by Kansas State last time out.

Kansas is the ultimate dead nuts UNDER team.  The Jayhawks are 15-4 UNDER in their last 19 games overall. The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 131 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Ohio State/Illinois CBS No-Brainer on OVER 154

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 28th in adjusted offense while scoring 85.2 points per game this season.

The OVER is 8-3 in Illinois' last 11 games overall with 154 or more combined points in 10 of those 11 games.  That makes for a 9-1-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 154-point total, which is very low for a game involving Illinois right now.  They went for 154 combined points with Nebraska, 157 combined with Northwestern, 161 with Maryland, 158 with Michigan State and 163 with Indiana in their last five games coming in.

Ohio State has taken off offensively in its last two games with 82 points against Iowa and 83 against Penn State.  The Buckeyes are as healthy as they have been all season and have the firepower to keep up with the Fighting Illini in this one.  They rank 35th in adjusted offense this season.

Illinois beat Ohio State 87-75 for 162 combined points in their lone regular season meeting last season.  The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Arkansas/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 159

Arkansas is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Razorbacks rank 35th in adjusted defense and just 101st in adjusted offense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Arkansas' last seven games overall with 152 or fewer combined points in all seven games, and 139 or fewer in five of those seven.

The Razorbacks are even more of an UNDER team since losing their best guard in Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) three games ago.  They have been lost offensively without him, and they have had to slow it down and rely even more on defense.

Speaking of injuries, the Kentucky Wildcats will be without G LaMont Butler (13.2 PPG) and could be without F Andrew Carr (10.4 PPG) for this one.  The Wildcats and their opponents have combined for 151 or fewer points in three of their last four games overall.  They are a little lost offensively right now without Butler.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* WAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Valley +10

We have one of the most underrated teams in the country in the Utah Valley Wolverines catching double-digits against one of the most overrated teams in the country in the Grand Canyon Antelopes Saturday.  I'll gladly take the value and the 10 points with the Wolverines.

Utah Valley is 15-6 SU & 12-7 ATS this season.  The Wolverines have been dominant of late going 10-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes a 72-64 win as 3.5-point home dogs to Grand Canyon on January 9th in their first meeting this season.  They shot just 36.5% from the field and still won by 8.

Grand Canyon is a woeful 6-14 ATS this season.  They have been winning games but struggling to get margin as expectations are through the roof after what they did last season.  And now this is a very unfavorable spot for them despite wanting revenge.

Grand Canyon only has one day to get ready for Utah Valley after beating Seattle 83-74 as a 10-point home favorite on Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Wolverines have had the last six days off since beating Seattle 70-66 as 5-point road dogs on January 25th.  They will be the fresher, more prepared team.  Bet Utah Valley Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -7

The Miami Hurricanes are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall with upset home losses to Charleston Southern and Mount St. Mary's.  Their lone win during this stretch came against Presbyterian.  The Hurricanes are 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall as well.

Miami has rarely even been competitive.  The Hurricanes have lost six of their last seven games by double-digits.  They just lost by 11 at home to a bad, short-handed Virginia team on Wednesday.  I expect them to get blown out again today.

Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall since getting its best player in Markus Burton (20.4 PPG) back from injury.  With him in the lineup they are capable of beating anyone and they have shown that against the top teams in the ACC, while taking care of business against the bottom feeders.  They will do just that with ease today.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Houston ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +11.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They sit at 16-4 this season with their four losses coming by 1, 1, 4 and 5 points.  They haven't been blown out yet this season, and they aren't about to start Saturday.

This is a terrible spot for Houston.  The Cougars are a tired team after a two-game road trip at Kansas and at West Virginia.  They pulled off the miracle in double-OT to beat Kansas, and they staved off a big comeback by West Virginia.  Now they only have two days in between games to get ready for Texas Tech plus the flight from West Virginia back to Houston in between.  I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Cougars.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF PK

UCF has been a wagon at home this season.  The Knights are 10-2 SU at home with their only losses coming to Kansas and Houston.  And they nearly upset Houston in a 69-68 loss as 13-point underdogs to show what they are capable of.

In their last home game, the Knights crushed TCU 85-58.  They followed it up with a 91-87 road loss to Kansas as 12.5-point dogs and likely would have won that game if not for some questionable calls by the refs.  Now they will take out their frustration on BYU tonight.

This is a terrible spot for BYU.  The Cougars are coming off a huge 93-89 (OT) home win over Baylor for their 3rd straight win and cover in Big 12 play.  I think they are overvalued now, and this trip to the East Coast is a long one.  I don't expect them to handle it very well.

BYU is 1-3 SU in Big 12 road games this season with the lone win at Colorado, which is one of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They also lost at Utah, at TCU and at Houston by 31.  This will be their 2nd-toughest road game of the season to this point.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* Auburn/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +6.5

The Auburn Tigers are the #1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  We have seen that play out with Auburn going just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with one of the covers coming by a 0.5-point.

Auburn escaped with 2-point wins at Georgia and at home against Tennessee before beating lowly LSU by 13 as 12.5-point favorites.  I think this is where their luck runs out against an Ole Miss team that has been one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and gets the most out of his teams.  He is doing that in Oxford as the Rebels are 16-5 SU & 12-8 ATS this season.  Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer, so they are a tough team to get margin on.

Ole Miss is 9-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming 63-62 to Texas A&M after blowing a 4-point lead in the final seconds.  This will be the best home atmosphere for a game in Oxford all season with the No. 1 ranked team in the country coming to town.  I fully expect the Rebels to win this game outright.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -1

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Villanova and 'sell high' on Creighton Saturday.  The Wildcats are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, while the Bluejays are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Yet Villanova is favored here, and favored for good reason.

The Wildcats want revenge from a 86-79 road loss as 5-point dogs at Creighton in their first meeting this season on December 21st.  Creighton shot 55% from the field and 14-of-25 (56%) from 3 and still only won by 7.  I have to think they'll have some shooting regression in the rematch on the road this time around.

Villanova is 10-2 SU at home this season.  Creighton is 3-3 SU in true road games with a 24-point loss at Georgetown and two of the road wins coming against lowly DePaul and Butler, two of the worst teams in the Big East.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota State/North Dakota State OVER 154.5

North Dakota State is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Bison are scoring 82.0 points per game behind an offense that ranks 33rd in efficiency, 2nd in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage in the entire country.

But the Bison are poor on the other end ranking 267th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 7-2 in North Dakota State's last nine games overall with 154 or more combined points in seven of those nine games, and 160 or more in six of them.  So this total of 154.5 is very low for a game involving the Bison.

South Dakota State ranks 85th in adjusted tempo and 117th in adjusted offense.  The Jackrabbits rank 52nd in effective FG percentage and like the Bison, are much better on offense than they are on defense.  South Dakota State and its opponents have combined for at least 154 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Belmont/Illinois State OVER 153

The Belmont Bruins are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bruins are 14-6 OVER in all games this season.  Belmont games are averaging over 160 combined points per game in all games.  The Bruins rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 60th in adjusted offense and 256th in adjusted defense.

The OVER is 4-1 in Illinois State's last five games overall.  The Redbirds rank 86th in adjusted offense and 232nd in adjusted defense.  So both teams are leaps and bounds better on offense than defense.

Both the Bruins and Redbirds rank in the Top 42 in effective FG percentage on offense and 297th or worse in effective FG percentage on defense.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Belmont and its opponents have combined for 162 or more points in six of its last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +12.5

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers accordingly that are very difficult to live up to.  It puts a massive target on their backs as well.

I think this is a clear letdown spot for Auburn after surviving a pair of close 2-point wins at Georgi and at home against Tennessee in their last two games coming in.  They will need to play a perfect game to cover this big of a number on the road at LSU tonight.

The LSU Tigers have been very competitive in SEC play despite their poor record.  They only have one loss by more than 12 points in conference play this season.  This despite playing a brutal schedule with four of their last five games on the road.

In their lone home game during this stretch, they beat Arkansas who had their best player in Fland for that game.  The Tigers only lost by 7 at Alabama over the weekend to show what they are capable of.  They will treat this like their 'National Championship' game, and I fully expect them to give Auburn a run for its money tonight.  

The home teams is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet LSU Wednesday.

20* Oregon State/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 153

Gonzaga is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Bulldogs rank 38th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  They rank 5th in adjusted offense, so they play fast and do so efficiently.

The problem for the Bulldogs is they play no defense this season.  They allowed 97 points to Oregon State and 103 to Santa Clara in two of their last three games.  Now they face this same Oregon State team that they lost 97-79 to in OT on January 16th.  It's worth noting that game was tied 83-83 at the end of regulation for 166 combined points.

Oregon State is also a very good offensive team ranking 45th in adjusted offense, 21st in effective FG percentage and 26th in 3-point shooting.  The Beavers have now scored at least 81 points in six of their last seven games overall.  I think they can get close to 80 and Gonzaga close to 90 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +14.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico.  They then covered as 13-point dogs at Nevada before topping Wyoming 67-58 at home as 3-point favorites.

I love the spot for San Jose State because they will be the more rested team.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, while San Diego State will be playing its 3rd game in 7 days coming off consecutive road wins at Air Force (by 1) and at Nevada.

It's hard to trust San Diego State to get margin on teams because they are so poor offensively ranking just 112th in adjusted offense.  They also play slow and limit possessions, and San Jose State plays even slower, so this game won't see many possessions. In two meetings last season, San Jose State lost by 3 as 10-point home dogs and by 8 as 21.5-point road dogs to the Aztecs.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on California -9

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next seven games without him to fall to 4-15 SU & 3-16 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-15 SU in its last 16 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  Each of their last five losses have come by double-digits, including a 35-point loss at Duke, a 43-point home loss to SMU and a 37-point road loss at Stanford in their last three games coming in.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play going 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.

California is coming off two of its most impressive games of the season winning 65-62 at NC State as 6-point dogs and 77-68 at home over Florida State as 3-point dogs.  The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They will relish this opportunity to put it on Miami tonight at home.  Bet California Saturday.

20* UConn/Xavier FOX No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5

The Xavier Musketeers have been rolling since getting their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG) back from injury.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their las four games overall including an upset road win at Marquette.

Xavier is pissed off after blowing a 16-point 2H lead to lose 79-71 (OT) at St. John's last time out.  That was a brutal beat as I had Xavier +8 in that game and the line closed +7 so most lost.  It was also a misleading final, and taking St. John's to OT on the road is impressive either way.

Now the Musketeers have their sights set on revenge from a 94-89 (OT) road loss at UConn on December 18th.  Freemantle didn't even play in that game and they took the Huskies to OT on the road.  UConn had Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) healthy for that game and he scored 14 points.  McNeeley has missed their last five games and likely will miss this one as well.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Dakota/South Dakota State OVER 169

I've been riding these Summit League OVERS especially with South Dakota, my favorite OVER team in the league.  The OVER is 16-1 in all South Dakota games this season and most are sailing over the total.

South Dakota ranks 2nd in adjusted tempo, 98th in adjusted offense and 357th in adjusted defense.  So they play super fast and play no defense, which is what you want in an OVER team.  The Coyotes and their opponents have combined for at least 174 points in 10 of their last 13 games.

South Dakota State also likes to play fast ranking 80th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits do so efficiently ranking 122nd in adjusted offense and 57th in effective FG percentage.  They combined for 182 points with North Dakota, a team that profiles similar to South Dakota.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Long Beach/Cal Poly OVER 154

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 3rd in adjusted tempo and 1st in average length of offensive possession at 14.2 seconds.  They are also a terrible defensive team ranking 298th in adjusted defense.

Cal Poly is 13-6 OVER in all games this season.  They take on a Long Beach State team that has really been trending over of late.  The Beach have gone 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They rank 336th in adjusted defense, so these are two of the worst defensive teams in the country.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Duke/Wake Forest ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have benefited from an extremely soft schedule to open ACC play and I think they finally get a run for their money today.

Wake Forest is 15-4 this season including a perfect 10-0 at home this season where they upset North Carolina last time out.  They also crushed Stanford by 13, NC State by 18 and James Madison by 17 in their previous three home games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Duke winning both home meetings outright during this stretch.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa/Indiana State OVER 155

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games overall.  The Sycamores rank 5th in adjusted tempo and 283rd in adjusted defense.  They have gone for at least 157 combined points with their opponents in 14 of their last 16 lined games, so this total of 155 is pretty short for a game involving the Sycamores.

Northern Iowa has always been known for defense and slow tempo.  But that's not the case anymore this season.  The Panthers are actually great on offense ranking 83rd in adjusted offense and terrible on defense ranking 202nd in adjusted defense.

Northern Iowa combined for 169 points with Illinois State and 153 with Valpo in two of its last three road games during a stretch where the OVER is 4-2 in their last six.  Indiana State will control the tempo at home and make Northern Iowa try and keep up with them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* WAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Utah +11.5

Grand Canyon is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Antelopes are just 5-12 ATS in all games this season.  That's even after consecutive blowout wins and covers at home against Tarleton State and Abilene Christian.

I think those two blowout wins have the Antelopes overvalued again tonight as 11.5-point road favorites over Southern Utah.  They only beat Southern Utah 82-71 as 16-point home favorites in their first meeting this season on January 4th three weeks ago.

Now the Thunderbirds will be out for revenge in the rematch, and they are catching 11.5 points at home to boot.  They will be happy to be at home after having to play five of their last eight games on the road and all against quality teams.  The Thunderbirds are 7-2 SU at home this season with both losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Southern Utah Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. Thomas/Nebraska-Omaha OVER 153.5

The Summit League is loaded with offense and St. Thomas is the class of it.  The Tommies are scoring 85.9 points per game and shooting 49.9% as a team. The Tommies rank 56th in adjusted offense, 4th in effective FG percentage and 6th in 3-point percentage.

Omaha has been no slouch on offense ranking 183rd in adjusted offense, 165th in effective FG percentage and 76th in 3-point percentage.  But both teams have been poor on defense.  Omaha ranks 272nd in adjusted defense while St. Thomas ranks 244th.

The OVER is 12-3 in St. Thomas' last 15 games overall.  The Tommies and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in nine of their last 12 games.  The OVER is 4-2 in Omaha's last six games overall.  They have gone for 167 or more combined points in four of those six games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Miami/Stanford ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -10

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next six games without him to fall to 4-14 SU & 3-15 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-14 SU in its last 15 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  Each of their last four losses have come by double-digits, including a 117-74 home loss to SMU last time out and a 89-54 loss at Duke the game prior.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

The Stanford Cardinal are playing well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an upset road win at North Carolina as 11.5-point dogs last time out.  They won their only two ACC home games by double-digits over Virginia by 23 and VA Tech by 11, and I fully expect them to beat the Hurricanes by double-digits tonight.  Bet Stanford Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Georgia/Arkansas UNDER 142

The Arkansas Razorbacks have opened 0-5 in SEC play and are coming off a 83-65 road loss at Missouri.  Making matters worse, they lost G Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) to a season-ending injury in the defeat.  So now they have to try and adjust without their PG and second-leading scorer moving forward.

The Razorbacks are going to have to rely on defense even more now because they are going to be even more lost offensively without Fland.  Arkansas ranks 36th in adjusted defense and 86th in adjusted offense.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Razorbacks last five games overall with 139 or fewer combined points in three of those.

The Georgia Bulldogs are 14-4 this season.  The biggest reason for their improvement is defense as they rank 14th in the country in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Georgia's last 15 games overall.  Four of their last five games have seen 138 or fewer combined points with the lone exception being against Kentucky, which profiles as an over team.  Both of these teams profile as under teams and points will be hard to come by tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bradley/Belmont OVER 153.5

Two of the better offensive teams in the country square off tonight when Belmont hosts Bradley.  The Bruins will control the tempo playing at home.  They rank 23rd in adjusted tempo and 23rd in average length of offensive possession, and they will be pushing the tempo.

The Bruins rank 81st in adjusted offense and 243rd in adjusted defense, so they really profile as an OVER team.  They are scoring 81.4 points per game this season while ranking 38th in effective FG percentage and 45th in 3-point percentage.  The OVER is 12-5 in Bruins last 17 games overall.

Bradley ranks 82nd in adjusted offense, 7th in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage.  The Braves are scoring 80.4 points per game this season.  These teams met last season with Bradley winning 95-72 at home for 167 combined points.  It will be another shootout in their first meeting of 2025.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +13.5

Connecticut is overvalued after winning back-to-back national championships.  They don't have as much talent as they did the two previous seasons, and injuries are really starting to catch up to them as well.

The Huskies are 5-2 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 13 points.  Once the schedule has gotten tougher and they have gotten into conference play, they haven't been able to get margin on teams.  Second-leading scorer Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is out with an ankle injury, and leading scorer Alex Karaban (15.6 PPG, 1.8 BPG) is questionable to play tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Butler Bulldogs.  They put an end to their 9-game losing streak with a 82-77 home win over Seton Hall last time out.  They have been extremely competitive in recent losses as seven of their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer.

That includes their 78-74 home loss to UConn as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st.  The Bulldogs have already proven they can play with the Huskies, and now they will be out for revenge on the road in the rematch.  They have five days off in between games to get ready for this one while the Huskies have only had two days off in between games.  Bet Butler Tuesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Drake/Indiana State OVER 142.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 12-2 OVER in their last 14 games overall. In those 14 lined games, they have combined for at least 157 or more points with their opponents in 13 of them.  

That makes for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 142.5-point total.  So this total of 142.5 is low for a game involving the Sycamores right now.  Indiana State ranks 5th in adjusted tempo and 304th in adjusted defense.

While Drake likes to play much slower, Indiana State will control the tempo playing at home.  The Sycamores gave up 118 points to Bradley in regulation in their last game, and Drake is in line for its best offensive output of the season today to carry the way in us cashing this OVER 142.5 ticket.  

Drake and Indiana State have combined for 164, 142 and 165 points in their last three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State +13.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico last time out.  That was the Lobos' only loss in their last eight games against a very tough schedule.

While San Jose State is grossly underrated, Nevada is grossly overrated.  The Wolf Pack have gone 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming at Fresno in OT as 12.5-point favorites and against Air Force by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites.  They were also upset by both Colorado State and Utah State at home, and Wyoming on the road.  They have no business being 13.5-point favorites here.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oral Roberts/South Dakota State OVER 160

South Dakota State likes to play fast ranking 79th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 159 or more combined points in five of their last six games.  They are coming off a 109-73 home win over North Dakota for 182 combined points.

Oral Roberts also likes to play fast and plays zero defense.  The Golden Eagles rank 120th in adjusted tempo and 360th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 5-0 in Golden Eagles' last five games overall with 160 or more combined points in four of those five games, and 157 in the other.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +7

The Iowa State Cyclones are in the ultimate letdown spot.  After escaping with a 85-84 (OT) road win at Texas Tech, the Cyclones came back home and took down their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks 74-57 on Wednesday.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat West Virginia today, and I expect them to come out flat.

The Mountaineers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  First-year head coach Darian DeVries parlayed his success at Drake into the job in Morgantown.  And he is already winning getting the Mountaineers to 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS this season.

That includes 8-1 SU at home where the Mountaineers have beaten Oklahoma State by 19 and Georgetown by 13.  They have also gone on the road and beaten Gonzaga and Arizona on a neutral, as well as Kansas and Colorado outright in true road games as underdogs.  This team is much better than they get credit for.  

The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones as they clearly have their number.  That includes 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings as Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on North Dakota State/South Dakota OVER 170

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team going 14-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 3rd in adjusted tempo, 97th in adjusted offense and 355th in adjusted defense.

Two games back the Coyotes lost 119-104 in regulation at St. Thomas for 223 combined points.  They have combined for at least 174 points with their opponents in five of their last six games.

While North Dakota State likes to play slow, South Dakota will control the tempo playing at home.  The Bison are 39th in adjusted offense and 277th in adjusted defense.  They still profile as an OVER team going 12-5 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arizona/Texas Tech OVER 150.5

Arizona is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 59th in average length of offensive possession and 16th in offensive efficiency.  They like to play fast and they do it efficiently.  They are scoring 84.2 points per game this season.

Texas Tech doesn't play fast, but they are super efficient on offense.  The Red Raiders rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 7th in effective FG percentage and 8th in 3-point shooting percentage.  They score 83.9 points per game and are 10-5 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier +10

I love this spot in conference play.  I love revenge-minded underdogs on the road after losing at home to their opponent in their first meeting this season.  Xavier fits the bill after losing 72-70 at home to Marquette as 4.5-point dogs on December 21st.  Now the Musketeers are catching a whopping 10 points in the rematch, and it's too much.

What makes me like this value even more is the fact that Xavier was without its best player in Zach Freemantle (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) in that first meeting with Marquette.  Having him back healthy for the rematch will make a huge difference.

The Golden Eagles have been living on the edge here of late and have gone 6-1 SU but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat DePaul by 2, Georgetown by 8, Creighton by and Xavier by 2 during this stretch.  Their luck may run out today, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +6.5

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  We are seeing that as the Tigers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now Auburn just lost its best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury and he is out for this game.  They lost him in their narrow 66-63 win as 16.5-point favorites at South Carolina two games ago.  They were able to get by at home against Mississippi State in their next game thanks to shooting 55% and holding the Bulldogs to 34.9%.

But now the Tigers go on the road without Broome for the first time this season.  And they face one of the most improved teams in the country in Georgia, which is 14-3 SU this season.  That includes a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they have wins over the likes of Notre Dame by 21, Kentucky by 13 and Oklahoma by 12.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

20* Boise State/New Mexico FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 151.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 5th in average length of possession on offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight against Boise State.

The Broncos are an elite offensive team that has taken a big step back defensively this season.  They rank 29th in adjusted offense and 88th in adjusted defense.  This profiles as a shootout tonight in the first meeting between the Lobos and Broncos this season.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Boise State and New Mexico with 159 or more combined points in four of the five meetings.  In two regular season meetings last season, they combined for 166 and 168 points.  

Their 3rd meeting last season in the MWC Tournament was the only game that went under, but that was played on a neutral in an unfamiliar shooting background.  And boy did they struggle shooting as Boise State shot 20-of-68 (29%) from the field while New Mexico shot 5-of-20 (25%) from 3 and 15-of-24 (62%) from the FT line.  That's not going to happen again.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Gonzaga/Oregon State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +10

The Oregon State Beavers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 13-5 SU & 13-4 ATS this season.  Three of the five losses came by 3 points or fewer to Oregon, North Texas and Santa Clara with two of those on the road.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight.  Bet Oregon State Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

This is exactly the type of game Memphis loses outright.  They are riding a four-game winning streak, but their last two games they were fortunate to escape with victories.  They won by 4 as 7.5-point home favorites over North Texas and then by 4 as 12.5-point home favorites over East Carolina.

Now their luck may run out tonight as they hit the road to face a Temple team that is vastly improved this season.  The Owls are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Buffalo by 20 as 14.5-point home favorites, Wichita State by 6 as 1-point home favorites and Rice by 3 as 1-point road dogs.  Their lone loss came by 1 as 3-point dogs at East Carolina.

Temple is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three meetings with Memphis.  They lost by 7 as 9-point dogs and by 2 as 5.5-point dogs in their last two home meetings in this series.  I think they can take the Tigers to the wire again tonight at home where they are 6-0 SU this season.  Bet Temple Thursday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +10

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force over the weekend.

Now the Spartans have their sights set on revenge from an 83-77 loss at New Mexico in their first meeting this season on December 4th.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch and are very live underdogs.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Lobos.  They are 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall and coming off a dominant 14-point home win over San Diego State.  That sets them up for a letdown and sandwich spot with a big game against Boise State on deck.  The Lobos won't be that motivated to beat San Jose State for a 2nd time this season.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +8

The Auburn Tigers just lost their best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury in their last game.  They struggled to get by a very bad South Carolina team 66-63 as 16-point favorites.  Broom is out again tonight, and the Tigers are on upset alert without him.

Mississippi State (14-2) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs rank 16th in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency.  They have very few weaknesses.

The Bulldogs have actually played their best basketball on the road going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in true road games this season.  They beat SMU 84-79 as 1.5-point road favorites, beat Memphis 79-66 as 2-point road favorites and topped Vanderbilt 76-64 as 2-point road favorites.  They should not be 8-point underdogs tonight without Broome.  

This has been a tightly-contested rivalry with eight of the last 10 meetings either decided in OT or by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Mississippi State Tuesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/St. Thomas OVER 168

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team going 12-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 8th in adjusted tempo, 111th in adjusted offense and 352nd in adjusted defense.

The St. Thomas Tommies also profile as an OVER team going 12-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are 147th in adjusted tempo and amazingly 62nd in adjusted offense despite playing in the Summit.  They are 227th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest -2

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next three games without him to fall to 4-11 SU & 3-12 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-11 SU in its last 12 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play after a 15-point home loss to rival Florida State last time out.

Wake Forest is playing well going 4-1 SU in its last five games with its only loss coming at Clemson.  That includes a 10-point road win at Syracuse and an 18-point home win over NC State.  The Demon Deacons have been off for the last week and will have the rest advantage over the Hurricanes, who just lost on Wednesday at home to FSU and will only have two days in between games.

Leading scorer Nijel Pack (13.9 PPG) is out for the Hurricanes after missing their last five games, which is a big reason for their recent struggles.  Divine Ogochukwu (5.6 PPG) is questionable as well.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Texas OVER 147

The reason Iowa State is a national championship contender this season is improvement on offense.  The Cyclones are actually the 6th-most efficient offensive team in the country.  They are scoring 86.3 points per game.

Texas Tech is 8th in adjusted offense, so this is a matchup of two Top 10 offenses with a total of only 147.  The Red Raiders rank 3rd in effective FG% and 11th in 3-point percentage.  They are scoring 85.5 points per game.  The OVER is 9-4 in all Texas Tech games this season.

These teams combined for 156 points in their lone meeting last season.  This thing should sail OVER the number again.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Belmont/Indiana State OVER 170

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-2 OVER in its 14 games this season.  The Belmont Bruins are also a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  This game shapes up to be one of the highest scoring games in college basketball in 2025.

Indiana State ranks 9th in adjusted tempo and 275th in adjusted defense.  Belmont ranks 29th in adjusted tempo and 251st in adjusted defense.  Both teams are much better on the offensive end than they are on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -2.5

The Bradley Braves have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Braves went 14-3 SU at home last season and they are 8-0 SU at home this season including a win over San Francisco.  They basically just have to win this game to cover this short number against Drake tonight.

The Bulldogs have been a great story getting off to a 12-0 start this season.  But they have been overvalued since, getting upset in each of their last two games at Illinois-Chicago and at home against Murray State as double-digit favorites.  

G Isiah Jackson is questionable for Drake after missing their last game against Murray State.  He starts and plays 28 minutes per game and does a little bit of everything for the Bulldogs.  Meanwhile, Bradley is fully healthy coming into this one.

The Braves have had this game circled all offseason.  They will be playing with quadruple revenge after losing each of their last four meetings with Drake.  Their NCAA Tournament hopes were crushed with two consecutive losses the last two years to Drake in the MVC Tournament.  I expect a big effort from the Braves tonight.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova +1

The UConn Huskies have been very fortunate during their current 8-game winning streak.  Five of the eight wins have come by 6 points or less.  That includes a 3-point home win over Providence as 14.5-point favorites last time out.

A big reason the Huskies struggled to put away Providence was because they were without their 2nd-leading scorer in Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) for the first time this season.  McNeely is out again tonight.

Villanova has gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall playing its best basketball of the season.  The two losses came by 1 on a neutral to Maryland and by 7 at Creighton.  The Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, including a 44-point blowout of DePaul last time out.

UConn only won by a single point in their trip to Villanova last season.  The Huskies aren't nearly as strong this season after winning the national title the last two years.  The Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country, and I think they get some revenge here.  Wrong team favored.  Bet Villanova Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech/BYU OVER 148.5

Texas Tech is a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Red Raiders are elite on offense ranking 10th in adjusted offense, 1st in effective FG percentage and 10th in 3-point percentage.  They are loaded with 3-point shooters all over the floor.  They have scored at least 76 points in 12 of their 13 games this season.

The BYU Cougars are also pretty elite on offense.  They rank 92nd in average length of possession so they get shots up quickly.  They do so efficiently ranking 29th in adjusted offense, 23rd in effective FG percentage and 62nd in 3-point percentage.

Like Texas Tech, BYU attempts a ton of 3-pointers, and thus this game will see a lot of long rebounds and easy scoring opportunities for both teams in transition.  This total is way too short when you consider Texas Tech and its opponents have combined for at least 151 points in nine of its 13 games this season.  

These teams combined for 163 points in their regular season meeting and 148 in the Big 12 Tournament last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Tennessee/Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida -3

The Tennessee Vols are 14-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Yet they are underdogs to the Florida Gators tonight.  They are underdogs for good reason as I fully expect the Gators to win and cover and hand the Vols their first loss of the season.

This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season for the Volunteers.  They beat Louisville and got past Illinois 66-64.  This is their toughest road game of the season now against a 13-1 Florida team that is highly motivated coming off its first loss of the season at Kentucky by a final of 106-100.

But now the Gators are back home where they are 7-0 this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -1

It will be a sellout for the Nebraska Cornhuskers (11-2) today in what is one of the toughest environments to play in the country.  This will be just the second true road game this season for UCLA, and I don't expect it to go well for the Bruins.

This is such a tough spot for UCLA.  After losing by 2 to North Carolina at Madison Square Garden, the Bruins bounced back with a 65-62 upset win over Gonzaga on a neutral.  This is their 3rd huge game in a row, and I don't expect them to be up to task.

After going 18-1 SU at home last season, the Huskers are 7-0 SU at home this season for a combined 25-1 SU record at home the last two seasons.  So getting them as only 1-point favorites is tremendous value today.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss -4

Ole Miss is 11-2 this season with its only losses coming on a neutral to Purdue by 2 and at Memphis.  The Rebels should be bigger home favorites over the Georgia Bulldogs today.

Georgia is getting a lot of respect for its 12-1 record this season.  But the Bulldogs have played the 331st-ranked schedule in the country with one of the easiest slates in the nation.  

They have only played one true road game and that was an 8-point win at lowly Georgia Tech, which wasn't that much of a road game.  Their true colors showed in an 11-point loss to Marquette on a neutral, the best opponent they have faced outside Ole Miss.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -1

No conference has a better home-court advantage than the Big Ten.  I think we are getting the Ohio State Buckeyes at a discount tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Michigan State Spartans in a battle between two pretty evenly-matched teams.

Ohio State is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming by a single point.  The Buckeyes are playing very well here of late including a 85-65 win over Kentucky on a neutral as 8.5-point dogs two games ago.  They won their lone conference home game 80-66 as 5-point favorites over Rutgers.

Michigan State will be playing just its 2nd true road game this season.  The first was a win against one of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Minnesota.  This is going to be the toughest test of the season for the Spartans tonight.  Their two losses came to Memphis and Kansas on a neutral.  

The Buckeyes are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Spartans.  Bet Ohio State Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/UMKC OVER 157

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-1-1 OVER in all lined games this season.  They are scoring 86.6 points per game and allowing 80.0 points per game.  They rank 6th in adjusted tempo and 354th in adjusted defense.

Kansas City has let opponents get up quick shots all season as they rank 40th in average length of possession on defense.  They are also a pretty poor defensive team ranking 207th in adjusted defense.  They shoot a ton of 3-pointers ranking 43rd in 3PA/FGA, which will help the OVER as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +9.5

Arizona State is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They got blown out by Duke in exhibition season and have been undervalued since.  The Sun Devils are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS this season despite facing a brutal schedule.

The Sun Devils have faced the 49th-toughest schedule int he country.  Their two losses came to Florida and Gonzaga, which are both Top 10 teams.  They beat the likes of New Mexico, St. Mary's, Grand Canyon and Santa Clara.  I would put BYU in the same category as those four teams in terms of talent level.

BYU is 9-2 SU & 6-5 ATS this season against a much softer schedule.  In fact, the Cougars have played the 361st-ranked schedule in the country.  Only three teams have faced an easier schedule.  BYU lost by 11 to Ole Miss and by 19 to Providence, and that loss to Providence looks really bad.  Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Arizona State Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/Santa Clara OVER 167

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-1-1 OVER in all lined games this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in their last seven games overall with 162 or more combined points in all eight games during this stretch.

The Coyotes embrace pace ranking 6th in the country in adjusted tempo and 354th in defensive efficiency.  They play a Santa Clara team that also doesn't mind running ranking 153rd in adjusted tempo.  The Broncos are a great shooting team and will hang a big number on this awful Coyotes defense.

Santa Clara put up 81 points on Fresno State, 84 on Bradley and 94 on Kennesaw State in its last three games coming in.  The Broncos are lighting up the scoreboard and could push for 100 points in this one to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Southern Indiana +9.5

Asking Southern Illinois to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Salukis are just 3-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS this season.  Their three wins came against Missouri S&T, NDSU and Florida Tech.

Southern Illinois is coming off a 23-point home loss to Bradley as 4-point dogs.  They also lost by 25 at Florida, but 6 at LA Tech and were upset by Eastern Kentucky.

Southern Indiana is 4-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last five games.  Three of those four wins were outright upsets as underdogs.  Their 80-78 loss at DePaul as 15-point dogs looks even better right now considering DePaul has only lost one game, and that was a 14-point loss at Texas Tech.  Bet Southern Indiana Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on DePaul/Texas Tech OVER 149.5

Texas Tech is a dead nuts OVER team going 6-0-1 OVER in all games this season with 151 or more combined points in six of their seven games.  They are one of the best shooting teams in the country ranking 6th in effective FG percentage and 7th in 3-point percentage hitting 42% from deep as a team.

The Red Raiders face a DePaul team that has pretty much matched them in terms of being great shooters.  The Blue Demons rank 2nd in effective field goal percentage and 10th in 3-point percentage hitting 41.2% from deep as a team.  They shoot a ton of 3-pointers with over 50% of their field goal attempts coming from deep, which favors OVERS.

DePaul is 5-2 OVER in all games this season with 151 or more combined points in five of their seven games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23

I was on Nebraska +11 when they upset Creighton 74-63 on the road last time out.  But now I'm fading the Huskers here tonight because I think they are overvalued off that win, and it's a huge letdown spot for them off that big in-state rivalry game that takes place every year.

The win over Creighton isn't as good as it looks on paper.  Creighton is nowhere near the team they were a year ago.  The Bluejays went on to lose 71-53 to San Diego State as 4.5-point favorites last night.  They are 1-5 ATS this season now consistently failing to live up to expectations.

I've been impressed with South Dakota this season.  The Coyotes are 6-2 SU with their lone losses coming by 19 at Iowa and by 9 at Southern Indiana.  I backed them in that game against Iowa, which I have power rated similarly to Nebraska.  

Iowa was only a 19-point closing favorite at home against South Dakota, and Nebraska is now a 23-point home favorite.  There's clearly value on the Coyotes given the letdown spot for the Huskers.  Bet South Dakota Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UC-Irvine -6.5

UC-Irvine is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters went 24-10 (17-3 Big West) last season and return four starters from that team that all averaged at least 9.0 points per game.

The Anteaters are 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in lined games this season absolutely crushing the first two spreads.  They beat Chapman 82-52 in their opener, then followed it up with a 66-51 win at Loyola-Marymount as 1.5-point favorites and a 80-60 win at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point dogs, covering the spread by a combined 37 points in those two games.  They also beat Pepperdine 80-62 as 16-point favorites last time out.

Now the Anteaters should make easy work of a Weber State team that has been dreadful this season.  The Wildcats are 1-3 SU & 1-2 ATS this season.  They lost 76-48 at Oregon State as 5-point dogs, lost 88-58 at Nevada as 17-point dogs and lost 73-68 at Hawaii as 5.5-point dogs, covering by 0.5-point after failing to cover by a combined 36 points in their first two games.  Bet UC-Irvine Friday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23

This is the rare situation where Iowa and South Dakota have two common opponents already to compare results to.  And after looking at those results, it's clearly there's value on South Dakota +23 at Iowa tonight.

South Dakota beat Southern 93-79 as 2.5-point home favorites and East Texas A&M 91-83 as 10.5-point home favorites.  The Coyotes outscored those two teams by a combined 22 points.

Iowa beat East Texas A&M 89-67 as 30-point home favorites and Southern 89-74 as 26-point home favorites.  The Hawkeyes outscored those two teams by a combined 37 points.

I just don't like Iowa's roster this season, while I like the direction of this South Dakota program entering head coach Eric Peterson's third year on the job.  He brings back three starters and several key reserves.  Two experienced guard transfers in Forte and Bullock join the team this season, as do the Bruns brothers, Paul and Isaac.  All four are making significant contributions already as all four are averaging double-digits scoring.  Bet South Dakota Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/Alabama OVER 169.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the kings of pace and space.  They face another team in Arkansas State tonight that are trying to follow their blueprint with pace and space.  There's going to be a ton of possessions in this game as a result tonight.

Alabama is the No. 2ranked team in the country this season largely because they brought back senior PG Mark Spears (21.5 PPG last year).  They also brought back two more starters in Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (44% 3-pointers in conference) and Grant Nelson (11.9 PPG, 69% 2-pointers).  They added one of the best recruiting classes in the country and are loaded again.  They scored 110 points on UNC-Asheville in their opener.

Bryan Hodgson needed only one seasons to build the best offense in program history as the Red Wolves rannked 61st in offensive efficiency last season at KenPom.  They bring back four starters from that team, and they add in F Kobe Julien from conference rival Louisiana.  Taryn Dodd (12.8 PPG and Derrian Ford (10.4 PPG) form the best backcourt duo in the conference combining for 113 made 3-pointers last season.  They now have the depth to play at an even faster pace this season.

The Red Wolves won a 80-75 shootout with Akron in their opener.  They only shot six free throws and 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range as well.  They are due some positive shooting regression in this one, and they will be forced to try and keep pace with the Crimson Tide.  This is going to be a fun game tonight filled with offense.  I'm guessing Alabama tops 100 points again to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 169.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -28.5

Texas Tech is loaded this season off a 23-11 campaign last year.  I love head coach Grant McCasland, who has won everywhere he has been.  He turned a Texas Tech team that went 16-16 and 5-13 in the Big 12 in the previous season to 23-11 and 11-7 in the Big 12 in his first year.

Four key contributors return including three of the best 3-point shooters in the Big 12.  "I think we have three of the best 3-point shooters returning in the country," McCasland said. "They are all guys who impact the game offensively and are tremendous."

Texas Tech added two impact guards in the transfer portal with Minnesota transfer Elijah Hawkins (6.4 APG career) and Drake transfer Kevin Overton (11.3 PPG last year).  F Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) returns after his season was cut short after just eight games last year.  But the biggest offseason acquisition was Mountain West Freshman of theYear JT Toppin from New Mexico.  They also added Pitt transfer Federiko Federiko who is an instant impact defender down low.

Bethune-Cookman went 17-17 last season out of the SWAC.  Head coach Reggie Theus is just 38-58 in three years here.  The Wildcats lost three starters from last year including their top two scorers in Dhashon Dyson (14.0 PPG) and Jakobi Heady (15.4 PPG).  They bring back just two starters in Reggie Ward Jr. (9.6 PPG) and Seneca Willoughby (3.5 PPG), and they don't bring back anyone off the bench who made significant contributions.  This looks like a very tough year ahead for Theus and the Wildcats, starting with their opener against the Red Raiders.  Bet Texas Tech Tuesday.

20* Purdue/UConn CBB Championship No-Brainer on UConn -6

The UConn Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 11 games by 13 points or more.  Alabama shot 47.8% from 3 in the Final 4 and still lost by 14.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five of their last six to 58 points or fewer.

Zach Edey is the best player in college basketball, but UConn is the best team in college basketball.  The Huskies will have the edge at the four other positions on the court outside of Edey.  Plus, Edey hasn't had to face a defender as good as Donovan Klingan all season.  He is the best big man defender in the country.

Klingan will limit what Edey can do on the offensive end.  They won't have to double-team him, and that will make life much more difficult on Purdue's guards who won't be getting uncontested looks like they are accustomed to.  This is a terrible matchup for the Boilermakers.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* Alabama/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 10 games by 13 points or more.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big number with the Huskies in this one.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five consecutive opponents to 58 points or fewer.  Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game.  Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense.  It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game.

Alabama has been playing a little better defense in the NCAA Tournament, but they have still allowed an average of 81.5 points per game.  UConn is going to get whatever it wants offensively.  Klingan is going to dominate the paint on both sides of the court as the Crimson Tide have no answer for him.  And the crazy part about UConn's dominance in this tournament is that they have shot poorly from 3-point range, but it hasn't matter.  They are probably due for some positive 3-point shooting regression at the very least.

Alabama is due some negative shooting regression.  The Crimson Tide were on fire in the 2H from 3 against both Clemson and UNC in their last two games.  UConn has the length on the wing to contest more of their shots, and Alabama isn't going to be able to get anything at the rim against Klingan.  Their suspect defense will get exposed as well, and UConn will control the tempo ranking 315th in adjusted tempo, plus they do not allow anything in transition, which is something Alabama relies on.  This is a terrible matchup for the Crimson Tide on all fronts.  Bet UConn Saturday.

20* Indiana State/Seton Hall ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana State ML -150

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have had all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first four games depending when you bet, beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites, Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites and Cincinnati 85-81 as opening 2.5-point favorites but closing 5.5-point favorites, and Utah 100-90 as 4.5-point favorites.

I was part of the Indiana State steam with my 25* NIT GOTY on Indiana State ML -145 which closed -245 against Cincinnati.  A big reason for this strong of a pick was that the NIT Final 4 was special to them because it is being played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they have a massive following there.  I was also on them against Utah, and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons in the NIT Championship Game.  The Sycamores are 16-1 SU & 11-4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  This will be a de facto home game.

Seton Hall had the luxury of playing their first three games at home in the NIT against St. Joe's, North Texas and UNLV.  Then they got to play Georgia, which came out of nowhere to make the NIT semifinals after getting a late invite due to so many teams opting out.  So this will be a big step up in class for the Pirates, who couldn't have had an easier path to get here.  This will feel like a de facto road game for them for the first time this entire tournament.

The Pirates only have one day to prepare for Indiana State, which ranks 12th in the country in adjusted offense and is one of the most difficult teams to defend because everyone on the court can shoot the 3-pointer.  That's a huge advantage for the Sycamores as well.  Seton Hall is 1-8 ATS in its last eight games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in road games against good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Utah/Indiana State ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana State ML -140

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have had all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first three games depending when you bet, beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites, Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites and Cincinnati 85-81 as opening 2.5-point favorites but closing 5.5-point favorites.

I was part of that Indiana State steam with my 25* NIT GOTY on Indiana State ML -145 which closed -245.  A big reason for this strong of a pick was that the NIT Final 4 was special to them because it will be played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they will have a massive following there.  The Sycamores are 16-1 SU & 11-4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  This will be a de facto home game.

Utah got to play at home in their first three NIT games beating UC-Irvine, Iowa and VCU.  The Utes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  But it has been a different story for them on the highway.  The Utes are just 5-12 SU & 6-11 ATS in road/neutral games this season.  They are allowing 77.5 points per game in these road/neutral games and their poor defense will get tested by a Indiana State team that ranks 17th in adjusted offense while scoring 84.6 points per game this season.

Utah is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Utes are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road/neutral games against a team with a winning record.  Utah is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road/neutral games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* NC State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on NC State +6.5

What more does NC State have to do to get some respect?  The Wolfpack are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two non-covers both coming by 0.5 points.  They beat UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament, and they beat Marquette outright as 7.5-point dogs in the Sweet 16.

Now the Wolfpack come back as 6.5-point dogs to a Duke team that they just beat in the ACC Tournament.  They have had a big change in philosophy and have the perfect lineup right now.  The Wolfpack feel like they can't lose at this point and a brimming with confidence.

Duke got the lucky break of Houston's best player in Jamal Shead going out with an ankle injury in the 1H when the Cougars were dominating.  It changed the entire game and Duke still had to sneak out a 54-51 victory without Shead.  They won't be so fortunate against NC State this time around.

NC State played the early game against Marquette on Friday while Duke played the late game against Houston.  I don't think that extra rest and preparation for the Wolfpack is being factored into this line enough.  It almost never is in these tournament scenarios, and it's one of the real edges we have on the books.  

Duke was in a war late with Houston Friday night and now has to come back and play a 5:05 EST start time on Sunday.  The Blue Devils lack depth as it is and won't have much left in the tank for NC State.  The Wolfpack controlled their game with Marquette from start to finish and didn't have to exert a ton of effort as a result.  They will actually be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.

NC State is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS as neutral court dogs or PK this season.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet NC State Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson +3.5

The Clemson Tigers are capable of beating anyone in the country.  They have road wins over Alabama and North Carolina this season and should have beaten Duke in a 1-point loss with a weak foul call by the refs just before the buzzer handed the Blue Devils the win.

The Tigers are showing what they are capable of in the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico was a popular pick to make a run, and the Tigers mopped the floor with the Lobos in a 77-56 win as 2-point dogs.  They controlled the game basically the entire way against Baylor in a 72-64 win as 4.5-point dogs.  And they once again controlled the game the entire way in a 77-72 win over Arizona as 7-point dogs.

I think Clemson's versatility offensively will give Alabama trouble as well.  Both big men PJ Hall (18.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Ian Schieffelin (9.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 48.9% 3-pointers) can shoot it from outside, Chase Hunter (12.9 PPG) has been one of the best guards in the tournament, and Joseph Girard (15.0 PPG) is a 41% 3-pointer shooter.

As stated before, Clemson already won on the road at Alabama 85-77 as 8.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 28th.  Hall had 21 points and 8 rebounds, Girard 16 points, Hunter 15 points and Schieffelin 9 points and 14 rebounds.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

The Tigers have the rest advantage after playing the first game on Thursday night and had the luxury of resting and scouting Alabama in the late game.  I always think that's a bigger advantage than what gets factored in as the team that finished first and plays two days later gets more rest and preparation.  

Plus, Alabama just lost sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) to a head injury, and now Nick Pringle (6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) suffered a leg injury against UNC and was noticeably limping.  The Crimson Tide's lack of depth will catch up to them here.  They are running on fumes after their comeback win over North Carolina from double-digits down in the 2H, especially with the crazy pace they play with.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* Duke/Houston Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars after needing OT to beat Texas A&M.  That's just a team they do not match up great against as they only beat the Aggies by 4 on a neutral earlier this season.  It's also a very underrated Texas A&M team that was playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch and knocked off several other SEC powerhouses this season.

Keep in mind Houston led by double-digits in the final two minutes before a crazy comeback by the Aggies as well.  I think getting battle-tested in that game will benefit the Cougars moving forward.  Four starters fouled out, and a walk on had to ice the game from the FT line in OT.  That kind of win will only make them stronger moving forward when they get in this position again.

This will essentially be a home game for Houston being played in Dallas, TX, and Houston crushed everyone at home this season going 17-0 with nobody staying within 8 points or them.  I don't think that home-court advantage is being factored into this line enough.  They did not get the benefit of the whistle against Texas A&M, but they will likely get that benefit here with a rowdy Cougar crowd.

But this is more of a fade of Duke than anything.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after an easy route to the Sweet 16 blowing out both Vermont and James Madison.  This is a very soft Duke team, and that will get exposed against one of the most physical teams in the country in Houston.  I also don't expect the Blue Devils to shoot as well as they have thus far as McCain opened the James Madison game 6-of-6 from 3.

Now the Blue Devils must go up against the Cougars, who rank 2nd in adjusted defense behind only Iowa State.  The Blue Devils were already without Caleb Foster (7.7 PPG) heading into the NCAA Tournament, and now Jeremy Roach (14.3 PPG, 44.2% 3-pointers) suffered a finger injury against James Madison that leaves him questionable and far from 100% if he plays.  We are getting the Cougars at a discount in the Sweet 16 and we'll take advantage.  Bet Houston Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the most disrespected No. 1 seed in the tournament.  Hubert Davis is also one of the most disrespected head coaches in the country as he is now 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament at North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.  They just crushed Michigan State 85-69 as 4-point favorites in the Round of 32.  Now they are only 4-point favorites against Alabama in the Sweet 16.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

But as much as I love North Carolina, this is more of a fade of Alabama than anything.  The Crimson Tide had an easy path to get to the Sweet 16 beating College of Charleston 109-96 and Grand Canyon 72-61.  Both wins come with asterisks because both of those opponents shot very poorly, and Grand Canyon tried to beat them with 1-on-1 ball.

Charleston started the game 1-of-17 from 3-point range, while Grand Canyon shot 2-of-20 from 3 for the game.  The Antelopes also shot just 23-of-37 (62.2%) from the FT line.  The Crimson Tide won't be able to benefit from those poor shooting numbers against a great shooting team in UNC.  This is still the worst defensive team left in the tournament and UNC will expose those holes.  

Plus, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has been battling concussion issues all season and just suffered another one that forced him from the Grand Canyon game.  He is a great shooter and their best perimeter defender.  I have a hard time believing he will be anywhere near 100% for this one if he plays, and if he does there is a high likelihood he gets knocked out again.  I like UNC to roll either way.  Bet North Carolina Thursday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State ML -145

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly out to prove a point that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament.  They haven't hung their heads, and they have all hands on deck for the NIT.  They have won and covered each of their first two games beating SMU 101-92 as 7.5-point favorites and Minnesota 76-64 as 7-point favorites.

Now on the brink of getting to go to the NIT Final 4, the Sycamores will be 'all in' tonight to get this win.  The NIT Final 4 is special to them because it will be played in Indianapolis in their home state of Indiana, so they will have a massive following if they get there.  I think they get the job done here but I'm taking them on the Money Line instead of laying the -2.5 current spread.

Cincinnati squeaked by San Francisco 73-72 in their NIT opener before blasting Bradley 74-57.  I think that result over a fellow Missouri Valley team is giving the Bearcats more respect than they deserve.  Indiana State also won both of its meeting with Bradley this season.  Cincinnati also got to play at home but will now have to travel to face Indiana State.

The Sycamores are 15-1 SU & 11-3-2 ATS at home this season.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  Cincinnati went just 4-7 SU in true road games this season.  Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* Texas A&M/Houston TNT No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5

Texas A&M is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  The Aggies are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Mississippi State, Kentucky and Nebraska.  They ran out of gas in their 5-point loss to Florida in their 3rd game in 3 days in the SEC Tournament.

No underdog in this NCAA Tournament has a higher ceiling than Texas A&M.  The Aggies have wins over Iowa State, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky this season.  They even took Houston to the wire already once in non-conference play earlier this season, losing 70-66 as 7-point dogs on a neutral.  Houston even shot 11-of-27 (40.7%) from 3 in that game while the Aggies only shot 38.2% as a team, yet it was only a 4-point margin.  

I think the Aggies can stay within 10.5-points in the rematch.  Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They just faced one of the worst teams in the tournament in Longwood and won easily.  They they lost by 28 to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and injuries and lack of depth is a problem for them.  

Texas A&M is elite defensively and will force Houston into some scoring droughts that they are known for.  The Aggies are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and can hang with the Cougars on the boards and in the physicality department.  The Aggies also potentially have the best player on the court in Wade Taylor IV, who scored 25 points in the 98-83 win over Nebraska.  But he isn't their only weapon as both Obaseki (22) and Radford (20) topped 20 as well.

Buzz Williams is 21-7 ATS in March games as the coach of Texas A&M.  Houston is 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Texas A&M Sunday.

20* Grand Canyon/Alabama TBS No-Brainer on OVER 168.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 7th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era.  Alabama is 25-8 OVER in all games this season including 13-3 OVER in road games.

The OVER is 11-1 in Alabama's last 12 games overall with 175 or more combined points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in nine of their last 10 games overall while allowing 88 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.  They are coming off a 109-96 win over Charleston to easily cash the OVER in a game that saw 205 combined points.

I was impressed with how easily Grand Canyon scored on St. Mary's last round.  The Gaels are one of the best defenses in the country.  The Antelopes put up 75 points on them.  They rank 56th in adjusted offense and also rank in the top third of the country in terms of tempo, ranking 116th.  They won't mind getting up and down with Alabama in this one.

Grand Canyon is 42-24 OVER in its last 66 games.  Alabama is 9-1 OVER after allowing 90 points or more this season.  The Antelopes are 27-12 OVER in their last 39 games against a team with a winning record.  Grand Canyon is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Alabama is 20-5 OVER against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* James Madison/Duke CBS No-Brainer on James Madison +7.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes are 32-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.  The upset Michigan State on the road in non-conference, and they just upset Wisconsin 72-61 as 5.5-point dogs last round to prove they belong.  They dominated that game for all 40 minutes and were never in jeopardy of losing.

Duke had a much easier opponent in the opener with a 64-47 win over a bad Vermont team as 12.5-point favorites.  The Blue Devils lost to UNC twice this season, lost at Wake Forest and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament.  I think the ACC is just way down this season, so it's going to be hard to trust any ACC team outside North Carolina moving forward.  The Blue Devils are on serious upset alert here.

James Madison is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record this season.  James Madison is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  Bet James Madison Sunday.

20* Oregon/Creighton TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +5.5

The Oregon Ducks are the one NCAA Tournament team that stole a bid by winning their conference tournament that I trust to make a deep run.  The Ducks have won five consecutive games including wins over Arizona, Colorado and South Carolina in their last three.  They have all the momentum right now and are playing their best basketball of the season.

A big reason I trust the Ducks is head coach Dana Altman, who is a proven winner in the NCAA Tournament.  Altman is 17-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when listed as a 9 seed or higher.  The Ducks may also have the two best players ont he floor in C N'Faly Dante (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and G Jermaine Couisnard (16.1 PPG), who had 40 points against South Carolina last game.  Both of these guys have taken their games to the next level down the stretch.

Creighton was in a dog fight with lowly Akron until late in the 2H last game.  They won 77-60 despite shooting 56.5% from the field and Akron only shooting 37.9%.  The Zips shot 6-of-27 (22%) from 3 as well, which is uncharacteristic for them, while the Bluejays shot 10-of-17 (59%) from 3.  They won't have those kinds of shooting numbers in their favor here when they take a big step up in class against surging Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

20* Oakland/NC State TBS No-Brainer on Oakland +6.5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament.

They got through Texas Tech on pure adrenaline, plus the fact that the Red Raiders play zero defense.  This is the game I think all these games will take their toll as the Wolfpack will now be playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  They are going to have to think because Oakland runs a great zone defense, and it's a very tough scheme to prepare for in one day.  I don't think NC State will be ready for it.

I like that the Golden Grizzlies acted like they expected to beat Kentucky after the game.  They feel like they belong, and I expect them to pull the outright upset here Saturday over the Wolfpack to advance to the Sweet 16.  They will have the best player on the floor in F Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG), and he is surrounded by two great shooters in Blake Lampman (12.8 PPG, 36.5% 3-pointers) and Jack Gohike (12.8 PPG, 37.8% 3-pointers), who hit 10 3's himself to lead the upset of Kentucky.

The win over Kentucky was no fluke as Oakland went 2-3 SU & 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier and Kentucky this season taking all five of those teams to the wire despite playing all five on the road.  The Golden Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -3.5

This will feel like a home game for the North Carolina Tar Heels being played in Charlotte.  That's not being factored into this line enough.  The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overaall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.4 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

Michigan State was fortunate to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  The Spartans went 3-5 SU in their final eight games this season including home losses to Iowa and Ohio State.   They are prone to scoring droughts and are not the best shooting team.  They only make 12 FT per game and struggle to get to the rim as well.  Any droughts in this one and they are going to get run out of the building.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.  This line should at least be -6 in favor of the Tar Heels.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Gonzaga/Kansas CBS No-Brainer on Gonzaga -3.5

Gonzaga made easy work of an upstart McNeese State team 86-65 and should still be fresh as a result.  The Bulldogs improved to 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They upset both Kentucky and St. Mary's on the road during this stretch.

Kansas shot 60.3% from the field and still needed a blown foul call from the refs to put away a bad Samford team 93-89 as 7.5-point favorites in the opener.  It continued a trend of poor play to close the season as the Jayhawks are now 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Head coach Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the NCAA Tournament prior to it.  That leaves the Jayhawks very short-handed and this is a tough spot for them having to play their 2nd game in 3 days after needing to go to the wire to beat Samford on Thursday.  They went with basically a 6-man rotation against Samford and had four starters play anywhere from 35 to 39 minutes apiece.  They will wear down in the 2H as the Bulldogs pull away after intermission.

This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs with it being played out West in Salt Lake City.  Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet Gonzaga Saturday.

20* James Madison/Wisconsin CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on James Madison +4.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes went 31-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.

But what lets me know James Madison can play with Wisconsin is the fact that they went to Michigan State and upset the Spartans in East Lansing.  They won't be scared at all to face a Big Ten opponent like Wisconsin, and I like the fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn, NY so the Badgers likely won't have many fans there.  It's less than a 6 hour drive for James Madison fans and they will have the home-court advantage if anything.

Wisconsin is a tired team after having to play 4 games in 4 days including an OT game against Purdue in the semifinals.  They ran out of gas in the 2H against Illinois in the Championship Game and lost.  I don't think they'll be fully recovered in time for the Round of 64.  James Madison made easy work of its three opponents in the Sun Belt Tournament winning by a combined 42 points and has been off since March 11th.  The Dukes will be the much fresher team for this matchup.

James Madison is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record.  I think the Dukes make the Sweet 16, and it starts with an upset win over Wisconsin Friday night.  Bet James Madison Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Charleston/Alabama OVER 170.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era.  Alabama is 24-8 OVER in all games this season including 12-3 OVER in road games.

The OVER is 10-1 in Alabama's last 11 games overall with 175 or more combined points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in eight of their last nine games overall while allowing 88 or more points in seven of their last nine games.

Charleston also likes to run ranking 59th in adjusted tempo and 58th in adjusted offense while just 175th in adjusted defense.  The Cougars have elite guards and can dice up this Alabama defense just like every other team with elite guards has this season.  Alabama likes to get to the rim and will be up against a Charleston defense that is soft inside ranking 5th-to-last in the entire country in defending shots at the rim.

Charleston is 11-1 OVER in its last 11 road games off a close win by 3 points or less against a conference opponent.  This will likely be the highest scoring game of the entire opening round.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue -26.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Now Grambling State has to face the best team they have faced yet in No. 1 seed Purdue.  It's also a highly motivated Boilermakers team after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year.  They won't take Grambling State lightly, and it's a very tough spot for the Tigers considering they had a 15-point 2H comeback against Montana State on Wednesday and had to go to OT in an 88-81 victory.

Grambling State was able to get to the rim against Montana State and take advantage of the undersized Bobcats in the 2H.  They won't be able to do that against Purdue, which ranks 45th in average height led by mountain Zach Edey inside.  The Boilermakers will force the Tigers to try and shoot over the top of them from 3.  Grambling State averages just five 3-point makes on 15 attempts per game.  It's just not their game, and the matchup is a terrible one for them.

Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  That includes a 99-67 win over Texas Southern as 32-point favorites, which is a fellow SWAC team and ranked very similarly to Grambling State in KenPom.  Grambling State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  This line should be 30 or higher.  Bet Purdue Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +7

UAB can beat anyone when they are on their game.  The Blazers went 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games of the season beating Temple by 28 as 6.5-point road favorites, SMU by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites, and then made easy work of Wichita State by 12, USF by 10 and Temple by 16 en route to winning the AAC Tournament.

I think the AAC as a whole is better than it gets credit for which is a big reason why Florida Atlantic didn't run through it like everyone expected.  And UAB showed well in the non-conference, too.  They lost by 2 to Bradley, by 1 to Clemson, upset Maryland and upset Drake.  They can play with San Diego State.

I think San Diego State gets too much respect for making the run to the championship game last year.  They were in dog fights every game and were simply fortunate in close games.  They are the most over-seeded team from the Mountain West getting a No. 5 seed.  The rest of the Mountain West got the shaft, and we'll take advantage here and fade the over-seeded Aztecs.

San Diego State is a tired team after making the MWC Championship Game only to lose to New Mexico.  They needed OT to beat UNLV, and five of their last six games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  I question how much gas they have left in the tank.  I know it won't be enough to put away UAB by 7-plus points, especially since the Aztecs struggle to get easy buckets on offense and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking 307th in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.

UAB is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Blazers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 tournament games.  The Aztecs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing two consecutive games as favorites.  UAB is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  UAB is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  SDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.

 The Aztecs haven't been nearly as good away from Viejas Arena going just 10-9 SU & 5-14 ATS in all games played away from home.  This is also a sleepy start time for a West coast team with a 1:45 EST which will be like a 10:45 AM body clock game for the Aztecs.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The Blazers are used to playing at this time being in the East.  Bet UAB Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament DOG OF THE WEEK on McNeese State +6

McNeese State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Cowboys went 30-3 this season including a 76-65 road win at VCU, an 81-60 road win at UAB and a 87-76 road win at Michigan in the non-conference.  VCU was one win from the Big Dance, UAB made the Big Dance, and Michigan was playing much better back when McNeese State beat them.

Gonzaga has taken a big step back this season.  The Bulldogs did not deserve a No. 5 seed.  They were just a bubble team prior to beating St. Mary's in the regular season finale.  They went on to lose to St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament.  The Bulldogs have a lot of defensive holes and they aren't a great shooting team.

One thing I love about McNeese State is they take care of the basketball and force turnovers.  The Cowboys rank 25th in turnover percentage on offense and 6th in turnover percentage on defense.  They also rank 7th in 3-point shooting, making 39.4% on the season as a team.  They have a lot of big-time transfers for head coach Will Wade, including TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 SPG), who will be the best player on the court.  Bet McNeese State Thursday.

20* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Duquesne +2.5

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won seven consecutive games and have gone 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 and followed it up with a 70-60 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday to prove how good they are and that they belong.  They'll remain playing with a chip on their shoulder today as underdogs to VCU.

VCU has had an easier path to the Championship Game and their games have bene closer than Duquesne.  Also, the Dukes won the lone regular season meeting 69-59 as 5-point road dogs at VCU on March 5th, which is a very tough place to win.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today on a neutral.

Duquesne is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a neutral court underdog or PK.  The Dukes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Sunday.

20* Marquette/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -8.5

The UConn Huskies are a juggernaut and the best team in the country.  They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall despite being a public team with everyone knowing how good they are.  The books just haven't been able to set their spreads high enough.

Marquette is without PG Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 40% 3-pointers) and cannot compete with UConn without him.  They lost 74-67 as 5-point home underdogs without him, and 81-53 as 7-point road dogs with him.  This will essentially be a home game for the Huskies as their fans take over Madison Square Garden.  Playing their 3rd game in 3 days including one in OT, the Golden Eagles' lack of depth will really get tested today.

UConn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games.  One of those losses came by 2 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament last year, and the Huskies have not forgotten.  They will get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight.  Bet UConn Saturday.

25* CBB UPSET SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Iowa State Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 in the opener and easy work of Baylor 76-62 yesterday.

Nobody has played Houston tougher than Iowa State.  The Cyclones won 57-53 at home in their first meeting and lost 73-65 to the Cougars on the road in their 2nd meeting.  Nobody else stayed within single-digits of Houston on the road.  But now it will be the Cyclones with the home-court advantage with probably the best following from fans in the entire country for their conference tournament.

Houston is short-handed right now and not a very deep team.  That makes it tougher for them to play 3 games in 3 days.  They are without Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker, plus J'Wan Roberts is battling a knee injury and questionable for this championship game.  He is quietly their most important player doing all the dirty work down low, and Tugler also provided some of it before he went out.

TJ Otzelberger is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game as the coach of Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 conference tournament games.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida ML -150

South Florida is 24-6 this season including 17-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament.  Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it.  That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament.

South Florida is coming off an 81-59 win over ECU as 8-point favorites to improve to 22-2 SU in its last 24 games overall.  One of those losses came 75-71 at UAB on January 7th in their lone meeting this season.  The Bulls want revenge from that defeat now and are fresh after blowing out ECU yesterday.

UAB beat Wichita State 72-60 yesterday.  But Wichita State was playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two tough games that went down to the wire.  The Blazers won't have that same luxury today against the fresh Bulls, who will get their revenge and win this game.

USF is 8-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Bet South Florida on the Money Line Saturday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State ML -115

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 yesterday and will still be fresh today as a result.

Now the Cyclones have their sights set on revenge from a 70-68 loss at Baylor in their lone meeting this season.  They hit a 3-pointer just after that buzzer that counted originally but was waved off.  They had a shot to win despite Baylor shooting 12-of-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range, and the Bears won't shoot that well again.

Baylor needed a 2H comeback to beat Cincinnati 68-56 yesterday.  That was a tired Cincinnati team playing their 3rd game in 3 days as well.  I think the Bears are getting way too much respect here as essentially a PK against Iowa State in a game that will feel like a home game for the Cyclones as it always does in Hilton South.

Iowa State is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 conference tournament games.  Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after covering four of its last five games.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last eight games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Friday.

20* St. John's/UConn Big East No-Brainer on St. John's +9.5

St. John's has been on a tear since head coach Rick Pitino called out his team.  They have gone 6-0 SU in their last six games overall including an 80-66 upset win over Creighton and blowout wins over Butler by 23 on the road and Seton Hall by 19 in the opener of the Big East Tournament yesterday.

Now the Red Storm have their sights set on revenge on the UConn Huskies.  They led UConn at halftime in each of their first two meetings this season before falling apart in the 2H.  It has been a problem for the Red Storm all season until lately.  They are closing these games out, and I think they will close this one out too with a great chance to pull off the outright upset.

Asking UConn to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  UConn was in more of a dog fight with Xavier yesterday than they should have been trailing 10-0 early.  The Huskies thus had to play their starters in the 2H to put them away.  They have benefited from a pretty easy schedule here down the stretch and will get more of a fight than they bargained for from the Red Storm here tonight.  Bet St. John's Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -3.5

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with four wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 89-65 home win over Utah on February 24th.

It should be another blowout in the Buffaloes' favor in the rematch due to their rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while Utah had to play Arizona State yesterday.  While the Utes made easy work of the Sun Devils, things will come much tougher for them today against a Colorado team that has a legit shot to run the table and win the Pac-12 Tournament.

Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 points or more, and 0-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss this season.  Bet Colorado Thursday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 143.5

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 348th in adjusted tempo and 14th in adjusted defense and struggle to get easy buckets on offense.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Villanova's last eight games overall with 134 or fewer combined points in 11 consecutive games, which makes for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 143.5-point total.

Marquette is an UNDER team in its current state.  The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now.  Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will benefit the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -4.5

Baylor got a bye into the quarterfinals and has a massive rest advantage over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 90-85 win over West Virginia in the opener, and then beating a dead Kansas team yesterday that was without its two best players in Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson.

Now the Bearcats take a big step up in class here against a Baylor team that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Bears just got Langston Love back from injury for their run through these conference and NCAA Tournaments.  Cincinnati is not a deep team and playing their 3rd game in 3 days will really test that depth.

Baylor is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since Scott Drew took over in Waco.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -1.5

Firing head coach Chris Holtmann was the best thing that could have happened to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to Wisconsin and Minnesota.  They upset Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road during this stretch.

The Buckeyes have all of the momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament and I trust them to get revenge on Iowa after falling 79-77 to the Hawkeyes in Iowa City on February 2nd.  The Hawkeyes don't play defense and they lack good big men inside.  They are just a very hard team to trust.

Ohio State is 8-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola-Chicago -2

Loyola-Chicago got a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage over St. Bonaventure today.  The Bonnies were life and dead with La Salle in a 75-73 win yesterday.  They only have a 7-man rotation and their starters played 40, 40, 39, 34 and 22 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse ML -125

The Syracuse Orange are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Clemson on Senior Day.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against NC State this season beating the Wolfpack by 12 at home and by 4 on the road.

The Orange have the rest advantage over the Wolfpack today.  They got a bye into this round, while NC State was life and dead with a very bad Louisville team yesterday, winning 94-85.  Not to mention, they are without G DJ Horne (16.8 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers), who is their best player.  They only have an 8-man rotation and Taylor and Morsell both played 39 minutes yesterday.

NC State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after grabbing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game.  Bet Syracuse on the Money Line Wednesday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have battled their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Wisconsin and Penn State, as well as upset road wins over Michigan State and Northwestern.

Now the Hawkeyes want revenge from their lone loss during this stretch which came 95-85 at Illinois.  That was a close game throughout before the Fighting Illini pulled away in the final minutes.  Iowa actually led 66-61 with 11 minutes left.  They know they can play with this team, and now they get them at home where they are 12-3 SU this season.

This is a terrible spot for Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a 77-71 home loss to Purdue in which they had a shot to win the Big Ten regular season title had they won that game.  But now they are locked into the #2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and have nothing to play for.  They won't be that motivated to beat Iowa again after just beating them two weeks ago.  I expect a very flat effort from the Fighting Illini as a result.

Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 24 or more assists.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Sunday.

20* Drake/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 151.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-3 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-2 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  It would also be 9-1 without that OT game if you got a good number on the Drake/Bradley game yesterday which we had at 140, but closed 138 and landed 139.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

I love betting UNDERS in winner-take-all games like this MVC Championship Game.  Nerves are rampant, defensive intensity is high and these games just seem to slow down.  I think we're getting extra value on the UNDER after Indiana State shot the lights out yesterday making 57.4% as a team and an unsustainable 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3 against Northern Iowa.  That was the only MVC Tournament game that went way over in this entire tournament.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 3rd meeting this season.  After combining for 167 points in their first meeting in a FT fest, these teams combined for just 142 points in their 2nd meeting.  I expect this 3rd and final meeting to finish in the low 140's as well.

Drake has allowed 75 or fewer points in 10 of its last 13 games overall.  That includes an average of 63.7 points per game in its last three games.  Indiana State has allowed 77 or fewer points in seven consecutive games and 11 of its last 12.  I don't expect either team to top 75 points in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.